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MONTHLY O C T O B E R 1951 CONTENTS Ohio Cross Sections (1) . . . . Editor’s N o t e ......................... Bryan-to-Fremont Area . . . . Lima— Marion A r e a ................. T o l e d o .................................. National Business Conditions . . . Statistical T a b le s ......................... Sizing Up an Investment in Research Review 1 1 2 4 6 10 11 12 FINAN CE • INDUSTRY • AGRICU LTURE • TRADE FO URTH Vol. 33— No. 10 FEDERAL RESERVE D IS T R IC T Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Cleveland 1, Ohio Ohio Cross Sections (I) Northwestern Ohio: Three Economic Areas Including 22 Counties southwestern Ohio; northeastern Ohio; and central N o t e : This article is the first of a pro and southeastern Ohio. A fifth and final article of jected series of five which analyze Ohio’s eco nomic activity in terms of a concept of “state the series will summarize for the state. economic areas”. This geographical grouping has For each area, a selection of the most recent in recently been devised by the Bureau of Census to formation available is brought to bear on the popu fill the wide gap be latio n, manufacturing, tween the county and agriculture, trade and the state as statistical finance of the area, inunits in discussing eco e l u d i n g comparisons nomic developments. with other areas of the Ohio’s 88 counties state. are grouped into 21 eco For more details on nomic areas, each of which is relatively ho the area concept, and mogeneous as to indussources of information, tria liz a tio n , type of see Appendix on page agriculture, levels of in 7. A complete list of come, etc. Ohio’s 21 economi c The present a rtic le areas, with counties in d e a l s with three eco cluded, appears as Table nomic areas (compris II on page 9. Detail ing 22 c o u n tie s) in maps of the three north n o rth w e ste rn Ohio. Succeeding articles will western areas treated in cover in turn the vari this first article adjoin . . . this map shows the location of the three economic ous economic areas of areas of northwestern Ohio analyzed in this issue. the text. E d it o r ’ s Monthly Business Review P age 2 October 1, 1951 Area 1. BRYAN-to-FREMONT A re a 1 ’ (10 counties) WILLIAMS Lyons ° FULTON ; lii Wauseon w. l o ° O Pioneer Alvoixjton I o Montpelier ° o Edon oBlakeslee Bryan ® DEFIANCE Farmer o ! O Ney Mark Cen. o O .o Hicksville PAULDING Fayette ® Unity J Pettisvilte L. Arcbbold Stryker f HENRY j Q Ridgeville Corners' Evansport I o Edgerton . o Cecil © Defiance i J_______ ° Liberty Cen. H askin s° r McClure o I j I PUTNAM ©Paulding Grand Ropids o Weston © New Bavaria ^ O Pemberville ® Bowling © reen Portage ° Bradner ° o °c in te r Custar q Hoytsville Deshler ikeside ^Marblehead SANDUSKY ] vi||e O | : nJ sev J n j Gibsonburg | 3 ® j Helena o Frem ont J Burgoono R isin g m m t m — m— m — m m m J erTy O Sun N. C 'JV M illgrove Bel more0 Continental _ , ■o 0 o Leipsic o Miller Leipsic ° Dupont City o GlandorF ° @ O tta w aO * Cloverdale o Kalida Pandora j Ottoville Columbus Ft. Grove O 1 -----1 O Jennings I Vaughnsville O Venedocia o o Ohio City oElgin TJ Copyright 1951, Hag'strom Co., N.T.C. Area 1 stands out as one of the richest agricul tural areas in the state. It is the eastern gateway to the nation’s great “com belt”. Farming and the processing of foodstuffs are the backbone of the economy, with almost 40% of the population living on farms and gaining a livelihood directly from the land, as contrasted with the Ohio average of about 15%. Only one other area in Ohio (Area 7, the Chillicothe-Hillsboro area) has a larger percent of its population living on farms than has Area 1. The density of population of Area 1 is only 71 persons per square mile (see Table I) which makes it the (1) Boundaries of economic areas discussed in this series are as shown in State Economic Areas, by Donald J. Bogue, Bureau of the Cen sus, U. S. Department of Commerce, 1951. Two modifications have been made; these apply, however, to areas to be treated in later articles. (See Appendix.) An area designated by a numeral such as Area 1, is classified as “non-metropolitan”, while “metropolitan areas” are denoted by letters, such as Area A, Toledo. In general, a metropolitan area has a central city of at least 50,000 population and meets certain other Census tests of population characteristics. o l Wo^ Catawba Island Bay o Baltimore Bloirds___________________ Q n Bloomdole Middlepoint o Wren .° 3Willshire 0 Rudolph P ™ " ? ° _ Depot. o C y gn e t j ° O Convoy Luckey o OTontogany Grover > Hill Scott" Van W e rt® Delta Homier Broughton _ n . o O Oakwood O O Payne Latty o Meirose VAN WERT f j Holgate 1 a I OTTAWA RossFord” J Curtice Walbridge| 0 o M Perrysburg Mj||°l Clay 0 1 WOOD bury] o Genoa oRockyridge ------oO ak Dunbridge j _ Swanton o Jewell 1 O Antwerp Haviland O ® I Napoleon Sherwood 43 Metamora third most sparsely populated area of the 21 eco nomic areas of the state. Only about one-fourth of the population lives in urban centers, most of which are relatively small. The largest city is Fremont with a reported popula tion in 1950 of about 17,000. Next in line are Bowling Green and Defiance, with 12,000 and 11,000, respectively. Other county seats in the area, in order of population, are: Van Wert, Bryan, Port Clinton, Napoleon, Wauseon, Ottawa and Paulding. About one-third of the population of the area is classified as rural non-farm, — an unusually high proportion. Farm Pros- Many economic indicators attest to perity the fact that Area 1 is prosperous as well as agrarian. In 1949,(2) more than $140 million in cash was received by farmers in Area 1 for agricultural products, making the re turn per acre of farm land $55.54, the highest of any non-metropolitan area in the state. (See Table I.) The excellence of the soil is one of the major reasons for the high return per acre. Other impor tant factors are the proximity to the large market areas of Toledo, Detroit, and Chicago, an adequate transportation system which permits ease of distri bution, and the employment of up-to-date tech niques in farming such as the rotation of crops, use of hybrid seed, counter-erosion techniques, and ad vanced methods of raising livestock. (2) 1949 data are used here for agricultural comparisons between areas, because that is the latest year for which certain detailed data are available. Changes since 1949 would probably affect the area comparisons very little, if at all. October 1, 1951 Monthly Business Review The land in most of the area is well suited to the growing of grain crops such as corn, wheat, oats and soybeans. Even though com and wheat together comprise only about one-fourth of all cash income, more farm land is planted in these crops than in any other. Much of the grain is used as feed for dairy cows, hogs, poultry, and beef cattle; in large measure the grain shows up in cash income indirectly from the marketing of livestock and live stock products. Com and hogs together account for about 26% of the cash income from agricultural products of the area. (Based on 1949 data.) Dairying is also very important, and accounts for about 16% of agricultural income, approximately the same as the proportion represented by sale of hogs. (In each of two counties, Fulton and Sandusky, the sale of dairy products in 1949 brought in slightly more than 20% of the total cash income. Both of these counties are near the Toledo metropolitan area where dairy products find a ready market.) Other leading agri cultural products as sources of income to the area are wheat, 14%, and poultry, 13%. Sandusky and Ottawa counties along the Lake harvest large crops of peaches, apples, grapes and other fruit. County Although Area 1 has the highest cash Differences income per acre of all non-metro politan areas of the state, differences among the various counties are considerable, with income ranging from about $37 per acre to about $76 per acre. Fulton, Putnam, Henry, and Wood counties are largely responsible for supporting the high return for the whole area with each of them receiving more than $60 per acre in cash income. Fulton county ranks first of all non-metropolitan counties in the state with approximately $76 as the average income from the sale of agricultural prod ucts. (1949 data.) Paulding and Defiance counties, with less favorable soil, are relatively lowest in the area in agricultural income per acre. Of Paulding county’s total agricultural income, approximately one-quarter comes from the sale of soybeans, while dairying makes up the largest share (about 20%) of Defiance’s income from agricultural products. Industry The industrial side of Area 1 reflects in in part the agricultural predominance of the Area 1 area.(3) About one-fourth of all manu facturing establishments are concerned Crops (3) Although transportation facilities are not separately described in these studies, it should be noted here that Area I has unusual transportation facilities (rail, water and highway)—perhaps some what out of proportion to the actual industrial development of this particular area. The projected East-West Turnpike will also pass through the area. Furthermore, the maps shown here omit rivers. In Area 1, the Maumee River (largest river emptying into the Great Lakes) runs through four counties of the area. P age 3 with the processing of food products, with 11 estab lishments employing 100 or more workers. Among them are some of the largest canneries in the state, a high concentration of milk condensaries, and three of the four sugar-beet factories of Ohio. Besides the manufacturing of food products, other major industries of the area are stone, clay and glass products; wood products; fabricated metals; and the electrical and non-electrical machinery in dustries. Many of the establishments are small. Only about 12% of the plants employ 100 or more workers. Sandusky, Wood, Defiance, and Ottawa lead other counties in the area both in number of establishments and in number of employees. Among other products made in the area are auto glass in Wood County (near Toledo) and auto accessories in Bryan and Fremont. About 30,000 workers in the area were engaged in some type of manufacturing during 1950, or only about 10% of the population. In the latter respect Area 1 ranks 16th of the 21 economic areas of the state, as seen by Table I. The value of manufacturing in relation to the number of manufacturing workers employed, how ever, is relatively high in this area. Approximately $5600 was the value added per worker in manufac turing industries during 1947 which was compara ble to the value added per worker in Toledo; it exceeded the value added per worker in Akron, Dayton, Canton, and Youngstown (all highly in dustrialized metropolitan areas) and ranked 7th among the state’s 21 economic areas in this respect. The high score in value of manufacturing per worker suggests a mixture of industries which have a relatively large investment in equipment in rela tion to employees hired, or relatively high efficiency, or both. Processing of food and feed products, which is prominent within the area, involves charac teristically a large investment per employee. Exam ples are sugar-beet plants, and establishments making soy-bean products and livestock feeds. Average weekly earnings of manufacturing work ers in Area 1 ranked 13th among Ohio’s 21 areas, or about $65 per week in 1950. Since the economy of Area 1 is largely cen tered around agriculture, and with most of its population living in rural areas, retail and whole sale trade does not play a large role in the economic activity of the community. In 1948, according to the Census of retail trade, sales of retail outlets amounted to about $835 per capita, or 14th of the 21 economic areas studied. Proximity to the Toledo, Detroit and Cleveland trading centers probably ac counts in part for the relatively low per-capita sales of stores located in the area. Trade Monthly Business Review Page 4 October 1, 1951 commercial banks plus withdrawable shares in sav ings and loan associations) amounted to $152 mil lion on the same date, the equivalent of $502 per capita. In this respect the area ranks 11th out of the state’s 21 economic areas. Commercial banks located in Area 1 had about $91 million of demand deposits at the end of last year. In this respect, the area ranks 13th of Ohio’s 21 economic areas. Savings accounts (in the form of time deposits at Finance Area 2. LIMA-MARION Area (11 counties) c c f j c r T o ° Bettsville. Kansas HANCOCK o McComb o Van Boren t Fostoriai o Bascom c ® FINDLAY o o Mt. Cory Jenera ° Bluffton0 I Delphos ALLEN o Cair0 o Beaver- ° Gomer HARDIN dam O Elida Ada MERCER Rockford ° o S p e n c e rv ille o ° Mendon uAUGLftfzE Mercer Q I M o n te z u m a 0 O Coldwoter ChickasawQ Ft. O St. Henry Recovery Mar,a St. Mary’s O N e w K n o x v ille _ New . Bremen | O o , „ Dunkirk0 Tiro o Upper Forest®! Kirby Sandusky o I Patterson | Nevada ^ St J 0hns o Osceola Bucytus® N. Robinsor Crestline* Galiong oHarpster I__T °_-----f 0 Alger W g jJ* - °-Morral | MARION Caledonia 0 Hepburn*" O New Hampsnir Mt. o Roundhead Victory --------------------Ridgeway ° , rLO GAN ~ — ° Center ° B i g ^ ^ N I O N oRussell o Springs I la k e -' Point vieW H u n t s v ille O Minster! B u r k e t t s v i l l e _________ S t e i n ^ o Kenton UniopolisC C elin o ® ________________ CRAWFORD Chatfield ° N ew ° Sycamore Washington Mtf* Carey Blanchard I ° j—* WYANDOT Arlington I O Wharton McGuffey o F ° raker C riJm v iH . W apakoneta^ • Bloomville O o Mel more Marseilles !_______ 1 B u iU a n d O New Riegel Vanlue Oi"McCutchenville Lim a® LQf°yetle0, Horrod Tiffin Arcadia 0 Bento.. Ridge Rawson Green Springs p|Qt g, I R u s h s y lv o n ia ® Marion Q °N e w La Rue Bloomington 1 wGreen Camp° 0 Owen , In t Waldo | Prospect Richwood West Mansfield oj Bellefontaine ® O D eg ro rr 5Quincy QZanesfield | East Liberty o 1 Magnetic0 O R a y m o n d ~>prs' . Middleburg O J D Liberty W. I New Dover O Milford Center Unionville o Center Copyright 195*1, Hagrstrom Co., N.Y.C. Area 2 lies just south of Area 1 previously de scribed. Like the latter, it lies mainly within the level com belt and is characterized by highly pros perous agriculture. Area 2, however, has larger cities than Area 1, and industrial development is greater. The largest city is Lima,(4) with a popula (4) The Census Bureau now classifies Lima as a “standard metropoli tan area” for certain statistical purposes. However, the population of Allen county (about 88,000) is below the minimum which is used as a test for listing a county separately as a metropolitan state economic area. tion of about 50,000 reported in 1950, followed by Marion with 34,000 and Findlay with 24,000. Other county seats in the area, in order of popula tion, are: Tiffin, Bucyrus, Bellefontaine, Kenton, Wapakoneta, Celina, Upper Sandusky and Marys ville. When ranked according to population per square mile, Area 2 is 16th of the 21 economic areas of the state. It has an average density of population of about 88 persons per square mile. Nearly onethird of all the people live on farms, about one-half October 1, 1951 Monthly Business Review live in urban centers, and the remaining fifth live in rural areas but are not engaged in farming. Farm In- In 1949 farmers of the area received come approximately $157 million from the sale of agricultural products which was more than 16% of the state total. Although that represented about $2 less per acre than in Area 1, farmers in Area 2 received the third highest income per acre of the 8 non-metropolitan areas, and re ceived $10 more per acre than the average farmer in the state. The sale of hogs led all other incomeproducing farm commodities, with sales amounting to 26% of total cash income. Other leading income products were: dairy, 19% of total cash income; poultry, 11%; wheat, 11%; com, 9% ; soybeans, 5% ; and beef cattle, 4%. Counties with the highest monetary return per acre within Area 2 are Auglaize and Mercer with cash income per acre (of farm land) of $63.08 and $57.54, respectively, in 1949. Farmers in Area 2 as a whole have the highest “level-of-living” of the 8 non-metropolitan areas of the state according to an index computed in 1945 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The index is based in large part on the number of farm fami lies which have electricity, telephones, and auto mobiles. (The “level-of-living” index is not in cluded in Table I, because data more recent than 1945 are not yet available.) Industry Although Area 2 ranks only 12th highest also of the state’s 21 economic areas in perStrong cent of population employed in manufac turing, only one other non-metropolitan area (Area 4, the Sandusky-Mansfield area) has a larger percent of its population engaged in manu facturing. In 1950 about 11% of all persons liv ing in Area 2 were employed in manufacturing establishments. There are 607 manufacturing establishments in Area 2, according to the 1947 Census of Manufac tures. These include 104 large establishments em ploying 100 or more workers in each plant. The P age 5 machinery industry employs the largest number of workers and makes up about one-third of all the larger establishments. Among the important manufactures in the area are plants making turbines, road machinery and school busses, as well as an oil refinery, — all located in or near Lima; rubber products and machinery in * Findlay; machinery and appliances around Marion and Bucyrus; porcelain ware, glass products and appliances in Tiffin; wire products and auto equip ment in Fostoria; furniture and farm tools in Mer cer county. The average weekly wage in manufacturing estab lishments of Area 2, in 1950, was $63.24, or 16th of the 21 economic areas of the state. Value of manufacturing according to the 1947 Census of Manufactures was $258 million, or $5,059 per manufacturing employee. In the latter respect, Area 2 ranked 13th of Ohio’s 21 areas. (See Table I.) Retail stores in Area 2 sell more goods per person than stores in any other non-metro politan area of the state. In 1948 retail sales aver aged $933 per capita, the highest volume of sales per person in the eight farming areas and 9th high est when ranked with all 21 economic areas in Ohio. Average retail sales per capita are higher than in the metropolitan areas of Hamilton-Middletown, Youngstown, and Lorain. Trade In respect to bank deposits and savings also, Area 2 ranks higher than most eco nomic areas of the state including several of the metropolitan areas. Thus, with $169 million in demand deposits of commercial banks located within its borders (as of the end of last year) the area ranks 6th among Ohio’s 21 economic areas. Savings accounts (time deposits at commercial banks plus withdrawable shares in savings and loan associations) amounted to $252 million on the same date, or $582 per capita. In this respect the area ranks 5th of Ohio’s 21 economic areas, — an unusu ally high ranking for a predominantly non-metro politan area. Finance P age 6 Monthly Business Review October 1, 1951 Area A. TOLEDO (Lucas County) B erk ey 0 tt.w « Hill«0 TO LEDO LUCAS O Holland Maumee Whitehouse ° c Waterville> Hasretrom Co. Economic activity in Lucas county is dominated by the industrial pace of Toledo, although consider able farming is done in the western and southern portions of the county. The favorable location of Toledo at the mouth of the Maumee River as it empties into the Maumee Bay and Lake Erie is a principal economic asset. The city’s population, according to the 1950 Census, is about 304,000 or fourth in the state. Toledo Toledo port facilities, which have always os a been of strategic importance, have been enPort larged since World War II and now admit ocean-going vessels. In total tonnage of Great Lakes shipping, Toledo ranks first in the state; more soft coal is shipped than from any other port of the world, and shipments of iron ore, lumber and grain also rank high. The city is an important rail and truck center, with terminals linking with the port facilities. Manufac- Of the total Lucas county population turing about 17% are employed in manufac turing, — a proportion which is higher than the Ohio or U. S. average, but lower than most other metropolitan counties of the state. (See Table I.) Total dollar value added by manufacturing, according to the 1947 Census of Manufactures, was $390 million, or more than 6% of the value added by manufacturing in the state of Ohio. Lucas county ranks 6th of 21 economic areas of the state, when the value added by manufacturing is related to the number of employees. That is, the combination of labor, capital, and management results in approximately $5600 as the value added by manufacturing per manufacturing worker. The average weekly wage of all manufacturing workers in Lucas county was $75.83 in 1950, rank ing second among the state’s 21 economic areas, just a few cents below the average weekly earnings of workers in the Hamilton-Middletown metropoli tan area which ranked first. A high concentration of heavy industry in Toledo is one of the major factors contributing to this result. Leading Manufacture of auto parts (as well as Indussome auto assembly), oil refining, and glass tries making are considered Toledo’s leading in dustries. Numerous other industries, tend ing to be in the hard-goods lines rather than soft goods, include shipbuilding as well as production of machine tools, scales, appliances, plastics, coated textiles, paints, and food products. The county includes 627 manufacturing estab lishments as reported by the 1947 Census of Manu factures. Of these, 100 establishments employ more than 100 workers each. The largest concentration of establishments employing more than 100 workers is classified as machinery, with 16 in the non-electri cal machinery category and 6 in the electrical machinery industry. (These data are exclusive of several large plants located in adjoining Wood county, which are part of the Toledo industrial complex.) Lucas county leads all other areas in Ohio in average dollar sales of retail trade per person. In 1948, retail trade was valued at $443 million, which amounted to $1120 per capita, as shown in Table I. Factors which may help to explain this showing are •the following: First, the drawing power of Toledo’s trading area is not limited to Lucas county but covers a much wider range, including smaller cen ters in Area 1. Second is the fact that average weekly earnings in Toledo are high. As a consequence of its strong trading position, more than 8% of the population of Toledo is em ployed in either wholesale or retail trade. Only Cincinnati and Columbus have a higher percentage Top Rank in Trade October 1, 1951 Monthly Business Review of population employed in trade, among Ohio’s metropolitan areas. There are approximately 2000 farms in Lucas county, mostly of small acreage but high returns per acre. From the sale of agricultural prod ucts, Lucas county farmers received the second highest dollar return per acre of the 21 economic areas of the state in 1949, or an average of $84.36 per acre of cropland. Almost one-fourth of total cash income originates from the sale of produce from truck farms, while greenhouse products ac count for about 16% of cash farm income, hogs Truck Crops and Greenhouses P age 7 and wheat 9% each, and poultry and com 8% each. Commercial banks located in Toledo or Lucas county reported $260 million of demand deposits at the end of last year. In this respect the area ranks 4th of the state’s 21 economic areas, — comparable with Toledo’s position as the fourth largest city of the state. Savings accounts (in the form of time deposits at commercial banks plus withdrawable shares in savings and loan associations) amounted to $206 million on the same date or $521 per capita. In this respect the area ranks 9th among Ohio’s 21 economic areas. Finance (Tables I and 11 appear on following pages) APPENDIX General Sources. Grouping of counties into economic areas is drawn from State Economic Areas, by Donald J. Bogue, Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Com merce, 1951. (Exceptions in the case of two areas are ex plained below.) Data on individual counties are from latest available official sources. Combination of county data to compute area totals and ranks was done by this Bank. Characterization of areas in the text has been checked in each case by local consultants, whose advice is gratefully acknowledged. Modification of Census Areas. The Census volume en titled State Economic Areas, cited above, includes Clark county (containing the city of Springfield) within non metropolitan Area 3, along with 11 other counties. The same volume likewise includes Lorain county (containing the cities of Lorain and Elyria) within non-metropolitan Area 4, along with 7 other counties. The results of the 1950 Census of Population, however, were not completely available at the time the Census delineation of state economic areas was made. As a result of the 1950 Census of Population it appears that Clark county and Lorain county, respectively, now meet the tests for determining metropolitan state economic areas. They are so treated in this series of articles, and non-metropolitan Areas 3 and 4 are correspondingly reduced. The designations “M” and “N” for metropolitan Clark and Lorain counties, respectively, have been used here, pending publication by the Census Bureau of revised classifications of state economic areas. Names of Economic Areas. In the case of metropolitan areas, the names used in this series of articles are the standard names used in State Economic Area and approved by the Federal Interagency Committee, (e.g. “Cleveland” for Cuyahoga and Lake counties.) In the case of non-metropolitan areas, however, standard names have not yet been designated. (State Economic Areas refers to each non-metropolitan area merely by its number and by a listing of all counties included.) To facili tate recognition of the areas described in these articles, provisional names have been devised; they are based in most cases on the two largest cities contained within the particular area. (An exception is Area 1 where the names of the two largest cities would give a mistaken impression of the geographical location of the area; hence the use of “Bryan-to-Fremont” to designate Area 1.) Inclusion of de tail maps accompanying the text should make clear the entire compass of the respective areas. Official names of the non-metropolitan areas are now being prepared by the Census Bureau, with the aid of local consultants. P age 8 Monthly Business Review October 1, 1951 Table I BASIC ECONOMIC FACTS FOR THREE ECONOMIC AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN OHIO Metropolitan Non-Metropolitan Area A Area 1 Area 2 TOLEDO BRYAN, etc. LIMA, etc. (1 county) (10 counties) (11 counties) POPULATION 1. Population, 1950...........................................................thous. 2. Land area...........................................................Square miles 3. Population per square mile, 1950......................................... Rank jmnnng ftlii'n’i) ^1 economic stfiis, MANUFACTURING 4. % of population employed in manufacturing, 1950.......... Rank among Ohio’s 21 economic areas............................ 5. No. of establishments employing 100 or more, 1947......... 6. Value of manufacturing, 1947................................mil. dol. 7. Value of manufacturing per mfg. employee, 1947... .dol. Rank among Ohio’s 21 economic areas............................ 8. Average weekly earnings per mfg. worker, 1950.........dol. Rank among Ohio’s 21 economic areas............................ AGRICULTURE 9. Cash income from agriculture, 1949..................... mil. dol. 10. Cash income from agriculture per acre, 1949..............dol. Rank among Ohio’s 8 non-metropolitan areas............... TRADE 11. Retail sales, 1948......................................................mil. dol. 12. Retail sales per capita, 1948...........................................dol. Rank among Ohio’s 21 economic areas............................ FINANCE 13. Demand deposits in commercial banks, Dec. 31, 1950 mil. dol. Rank among Ohio’s 21 economic areas............................ 14. Savings accounts (commercial banks and savings & loan assoc.) Dec. 31, 1950........................................... mil. dol. 15. Savings accounts per capita, Dec. 31, 1950..................dol. Rank among Ohio’s 21 economic areas............................ Sources o f Item s Shown in Table 1. Specific sources of items shown in Table I, together with explanations of certain items, are given below: : Item 1 and all per capita items: Census of Population, 1950 Item 2: Webster’s Geographical Dictionary Items 4 and 8: Ohio Bureau of Unemployment Compensation, 1950 Items 5, 6, and 7: Census of Manufactures, 1947; "value of manu facturing” refers to value added to product (i.e. excluding value of raw materials) Ohio U.S. 963 343 1,153 3rd 303 4,256 71 19th 434 4,924 88 16th 7,947 41,122 193 150,697 2,977,128 51 16.9 9th 100 390.0 5,603 6th 75.83 2nd 9.6 16th 60 143.7 5,602 7th 64.84 13th 11.2 12th 104 257.9 5,059 13th 63.24 16th 15.0 9.9 1,946 6,359 5,323 24,542 74,426 5,206 11.2 84.36 142.3 55.54 1st 156.8 53.07 3rd 954.4 43.52 28,127 24.64 442.9 1,120 1st 252.6 835 14 th 404.4 933 9th 7,373 928 130,520 866 260.1 4th 91.3 13th 169.2 6th 4,234 90,999 206.3 521 9th 151.9 502 11th 252.3 582 5th 4,539 571 68,970 458 69.56 Items 9 and 10: Ohio State University and Ohio Agricultural Ex periment Station; refers to gross cash income excluding govern ment payments. Items 11 and 12: Census of Business, 1948 Item 13: Federal Reserve System; refers to demand deposits of indi viduals, partnerships and corporations. Items 14 and 15: Ohio Department of Commerce, Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati, and Federal Reserve System; refers to time deposits at commercial banks plus deposits at Ohio’s few mutual savings banks, plus value of withdrawable shares of sav ings and loan associations (both state and federal-chartered) October 1, 1951 Monthly Business Review Page 9 Table II LIST OF OHIO'S 21 ECONO M IC AREAS Each area designated by a letter is a m etropolitan area, w hile the num bered areas are “non-m etro p o litan ”. N O R T H W E S T E R N O H IO 1. Bryan-to-Frem ont area Counties included: Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Ottawa, Paulding, Putnam , Sandusky, Van W ert, W illiam s, W ood. 2. Lim a-M arion area Counties included: Allen, Auglaize, Crawford, Hancock, H ardin, Logan, M arion, M ercer, Seneca, U nion, W yandot. A. T oledo area Lucas county SO U T H W E ST E R N O H IO 3. Piqua-D elaw are area Counties included: Cham paign, Clinton, Darke, Delaware, Fayette, M adison, M iami, Pickaway, Preble, Shelby, W arren. “M ”. Springfield area* C lark county C. D ayton area M ontgom ery and G reene counties D. H am ilton-M iddletow n area B utler county K. C incinnati area H am ilton county N O R T H E A S T E R N O H IO 4. Sandusky-Mansfield area Counties included: Ashland, Erie, Holmes, H uron, M edina, R ichland, W ayne. 5. Ashtabula-East Liverpool area Counties included: A s h t a b u l a , Colum biana, Geauga, Portage. E. Cleveland area Cuyahoga and Lake counties “N ”. L orain—Elyria area* L orain county E. A kron area Sum m it county G. C anton area Stark county H . Youngstown area T rum b ull and M ahoning counties C E N T R A L A ND SO U T H E A S T E R N O H IO B. Colum bus area F ranklin county 6. Zanesville-Newark area Counties included: Carroll, Coshocton, Fairfield, Guernsey, H arrison, Knox, Licking, Morrow, M uskingum , Perry, Tuscarawas. 7. C hillicothe-H illsboro area Counties included: Adams, Brown, Clermont, H ighland, Ross. 8. Portsm outh-M arietta area Counties included: Athens, G allia, Hocking, Jackson, Meigs, M onroe, M organ, Noble, Pike, Scioto, V inton, W ashington. J. Steubenville area Belm ont and Jefferson counties L. Iro nto n area Lawrence county * Clark and Lorain counties have been added to the state "metropoli tan areas” listed in Bogue, “State Economic Areas”, op.cit. (See Appendix) Monthly Business Review P age 10 October 1, 1951 SUMMARY OF NATIONAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Released for Publication October 1, 1 9 5 1 ) Industrial production continued somewhat below first-half levels in August and September, reflecting mainly reduced output in consumer goods indus tries. Consumer buying has been at somewhat higher levels than in early summer and distributors’ inven tories apparently have been reduced further. Prices generally showed little change after mid-August. Bank loans to business, mainly for defense and agri cultural and other seasonal purposes, expanded over this period. Industrial production The Board’s index of industrial production in August was 218 per cent of the 1935-39 average, as compared with 213 in July and an average of 222 for the first half of the year. Preliminary indications point to little change in September. Durable goods production increased but remained below the June rate. Activity in munitions and pro ducers equipment industries generally expanded, despite work stoppages in an important machinery industry. Output of consumer durables showed little change from the reduced July rates. In the latter part of September steel mill operations were sched uled at 102 per cent of capacity as compared with a rate of 98.5 per cent in July and August. Output of copper and some other nonferrous metals was con siderably reduced as a result of a labor dispute in late August and early September, and in mid-Septem ber aluminum production was curtailed somewhat owing to power shortages. Passenger car assembly for the third quarter was close to the authorized lev e l of 1.2 million units. Output of textiles, leather products, and paper board in August showed smaller increases than usual for this season. Chemicals production rose further and output of most other nondurable goods con tinued in large volume. Bituminous coal mining expanded in August and early September. Peak levels of output of crude petroleum and iron ore continued. Construction Value of construction contracts awarded declined somewhat in August, reflecting decreases for most types of public construction. Private awards showed little change. The number of housing units started in August was 85,000, about the same as in July but almost two-fifths below August 1950. Value of work put in place on industrial construction projects con tinued to rise in August and was double year-ago levels. Employment The labor market showed little change during August. Employment in nonagricultural establish ments, after adjustment for seasonal factors, con tinued at the earlier high level of 46.6 million per sons. The average work week in manufacturing in dustries remained at the moderately reduced July level and average hourly earnings were maintained at peak rates. Unemployment declined somewhat in August to slightly less than 1.6 million persons, the lowest since October 1945. Distribution Seasonally adjusted value of sales at department stores rose about 3 per cent in August to a level of 319 per cent of the 1935-39 average, but during the first three weeks of September sales showed a less than seasonal rise. Sales at most other retail outlets also increased slightly in August and in early Sep tember automobile sales were stimulated by pros pects of price advances. Value of department store stocks, seasonally adjusted, declined in August to a point 10 per cent below the spring peak. Com m odity p rices Wholesale commodity prices have generally shown little change since mid-August. Prices of textile mate rials have declined further, but during the past 10 days raw cotton prices have advanced as producers have restricted marketings at present prices. Among finished goods, prices of shoes, carpets, and sheets have been further reduced, while wholesale prices of new passenger cars were raised about 5 per cent in mid-September, following revision in Federal ceilings. The consumers price index in August was un changed from July. Slight declines in prices of foods and housefurnishings were offset by increases in rents and in prices of apparel and miscellaneous goods and services. Bank cre d it and the money supply Bank credit rose moderately during August and the first half of September reflecting some seasonal borrowing by businesses. Loans to food manufac turers and commodity dealers to finance the distribu tion and processing of crops began in the Augustearly September period and loans to finance direct defense contracts and defense-supporting activities, particularly loans to metal manufacturers, expanded further. Deposits and currency held by businesses and in dividuals increased considerably in August and early September. This reflected both expansion in bank loans and a continuing shift of deposits from Govern ment to private accounts prior to the receipt of mid-September income tax payments. S ecu rity markets Common stock prices in the second week of Sep tember reached the highest levels since April 1930 and then declined somewhat in the third week. Yields on U. S. Government securities and high-grade corporate bonds showed little change. Holders of the 3 per cent Treasury bonds called for payment Sep tember 15 and the ly4 per cent notes which mature October 1 were offered an exchange into an 11month 1y8 per cent certificate of indebtedness. Monthly Business Review October 1, 1951 P age 11 FINANCIAL AN D OTHER BUSINESS STATISTICS Time Deposits* at 54 Banks in 12 Fourth District Cities (Compiled September 12, and released for publication September 13) Average Weekly Change During: City and Number Time Deposits August July August of Banks Aug. 29, 1951 1951 1951 1950 Cleveland (4)......... ..$ 884,029,000 +$ 650,000 +$ 721,000 —$1,483,000 Pittsburgh (9)....... .. 497.765.000H + 694,000 + 244,000 — 424,000 Cincinnati (7)......... .. 175,966,000 + 91,000 58,000 — 230,000 Akron (3)............... .. 100,566,000 + 109,000 + 50,000 — 183,000 Toledo (4).............. .. 110,407,000H + 246,000 + 331,000r — 158,000 Columbus (3)......... .. 87,468,000H + 47,000 + 119,000 — 91,000 Youngstown (3)__ 63,205,000 + 99,000 + 131,000 — 168,000 Dayton (3)............. .. 46,708,000 + 121,000 + 128,000 — 32,000 Canton (5).............. .. 43,813,000 + 270,000 + 80,000 — 65,000 Erie (3 ................... 42.022.000H + 81,000 + 104,000 — 1,000 Wheeling (5)........... 26,476,000 4,000 + 34,000 — 28,000 Lexington (5)......... 10,977,000 — 32,000 + 30,000 — 54,000 TOTAL—12 Cities.$2,089,402,000H +$2,372,000 +$l,914,000r —$2,917,000 H—Denotes new all-time high, r—Revised. Time deposits at reporting banks in 12 Fourth District cities established a new all-time high of $2,089,402,000 at the end of August with an average weekly rate of increase of $2,372,000 during the month. This was a record postwar rate of expan sion for August, and marked the fifth consecutive month of expansion. Moreover; it is the first tim e since 1947 that time deposits have risen without interruption throughout the spring and summer months. The inflow of savings in August this year contrasts sharply with net withdrawls at a rate of $2,917,000 per week in the same month of 1950, associated with the first Korean wave of scare-buying. Every city except Wheeling and Lexington reported gains in time deposits, in contrast to declines in all cities in August last year. The rate of decline at Wheeling was nominal, $4,000 per week, and at Lexington a reduction of savings deposits was reported in August in each of the previous three years also. Pittsburgh, Toledo, Columbus, and Erie again registered new all-time highs. In all these cities the immediate post-Korean buying surge appeared to have relatively little effect in retarding time deposits. The marked recovery of savings deposits at Cleveland banks following a general downtrend since early 1949, continued with a rate of increase of $650,000 per week. As a result, tim e deposits at reporting Cleveland banks at the end of August were higher than on the corresponding date of 1949 for the first time in eighteen months. Adjusted Weekly Index of Department Store Sales* Fourth District (Weeks ending on dates shown, 1935-39 average0 100) 1950r 1951 .425 July 1 .... 337 July 7 .... ..314 .412 8 .... 322 14 . 330 .443 1 5.... 3.14 21 . .325 22.... 388 398 28.... 315 2 9 .... 418 4 .... .287 Aug. Feb. 374 Aug. 11.... .314 .359 .309 .354 18.... .310 25 , 315 365 26.... 323 1 .... 290 302 Mar. 2 295 Sept. 8 .... .315 .293 Sept. 0 324 266 16 345 22.... .319 251 23 318 29.... .356 293 30 ... 335 Oct. 6___ 297 Oct. 7 ,,. 297 Apr. 13 . 14 307 311 20 323 21.... 287 27 28 298 358 3 4 ,336 Nov. 11.... 280 Nov. 10 . May 281 312 17 313 24 312 Dec. 2 .... 195 Dec. 1 .... June 2 . . . ..309 9 .... 3?8 8 .... 9 311 15___ 16.... 334 16 804 22.... 23.... .314 23 .312 29 30 342 30... * Adjusted for seasonal variation and number of trading days. Based on sample of weekly FRASER Digitized for reporting stores which differs slightly from sample reporting monthly. 1950r Jan. 7 278 14.... 310 2 1.... 320 28.... 308 Feb. 4 .... 293 11.... 308 18.... 279 25.... 255 Mar. 4 . 258 11 279 18 .. 264 2 5 .. 263 Apr. 1 .... ,28J> 8 279 15 . 262 22... 283 29 . 834 May 6 ... 299 13... 296 20 ,. 299 27,,. 295 June 3 ... 295 10... 314 17.... 309 24.... 306 Jan. 1951 A 13 20 27 3 10 17 , 24 3 10 17 , 24 31. . 7 ,, 14 21 28,,. 5 12 19 26 .. Bank Debits*-—August 1951 in 31 Fourth District Cities (In thousands of dollars ______(Compiled September 19, and released for publication September 20) No. of % Change 3 Months % Change Reporting August from Ended from Banks_________________________1951_____ Year Ago Aug. 1951 Year Ago 181 ALL 31 CEN TER S...............$9,342,840 +10.9% $38,646,025 +58.4% 10 LARGEST CENTERS: 5 Akron..............................Ohio 344,677 +22.2% $1,113,078 +36.3% 5 Canton............................Ohio 144,395 +14.7 447,250 +18.7 14 Cincinnati...................... Ohio 1,116,053 + 7.5 3,475,173 +14.7 10 Cleveland...................... Ohio 2,385,743 +17.3 7,495,006 +22.4 7 Columbus...................... Ohio 652,265 — 4.3 1,850,984 + 0.2 905,224 +15.3 4 Dayton...........................Ohio 292,375 + 9.7 6 Toledo............................Ohio 452,851 + 8.8 1,366,434H +14.6 4 Youngstown.................. Ohio 210,684 +15.5 633,006 +18.0 355.303H +16.1 5 E rie............................. Penna. 116,738 +12.3 44 Pittsburgh..................Penna. 2,807,784 +10.1 8,571,953 +18.5 104 TOTAL.................................. $8,523,565 +10.9% $26,213,411 +17.8% 21 OTHER CENTERS: 9 Covington-Newport.......Ky. $ 46,230 — 2.9% $ 139.633H + 1.5% 6 Lexington........................ Ky. 70,911 + 4.8 195,453 + 5.9 83.172H +23.0 3 Elyria............................. Ohio 27,924 +21.3 3 Hamilton....................... Ohio 52.746H +14.6 156.380H +20.2 2 Lima...............................Ohio 61,060 +11.8 183.734H +17.9 5 Lorain.............................Ohio 22.608H +17.7 66.551H +19.1 4 Mansfield....................... Ohio 51,774 + 6.5 161,890 + 9.0 2 Middletown...................Ohio 56.510H +33.8 160.703H +32.4 3 Portsmouth...................Ohio 23,657 + 3.0 72,390 + 8.7 165,727 +13.7 3 Springfield..................... Ohio 57.627H +13.1 4 Steubenville.................. Ohio 28,200 +11.3 83.852H +10.9 2 W arren............................Ohio 53,434 +19.8 160,373 +22.5 3 Zanesville...................... Ohio 32,088 + 3.4 95,841 + 7.1 3 Butler..........................Penna. 38,874 +12.8 114,212 +11.9 1 Franklin......................Penna. 8,574 + 6.9 24,375 + 4.3 2 Greensburg.................Penna. 26,219 + 3.2 78.931H + 9.2 4 Kittanning..................Penna. 12,326 +16.2 37,538 +18.8 3 Meadville................... Penna. 15,514 + 0.7 46,644 + 3.8 4 Oil C ity...................... Penna. 19,808 + 0.8 61,568 — 0.9 5 Sharon.........................Penna. 36,598 +15.4 109.164H +19.4 6 Wheeling.................... W. Va. 76,593 + 3.9 234,483 +11.0 $ 2,432,614 +13.2% 77 TOTAL.................................. $ 819,275 +10.3% *—Debits to all deposit accounts except interbank balances. H—Denotes all-time high. Debits to deposit accounts (except interbank) in 31 Fourth District cities during August totalled $9,342,840,000 virtually the same as in July, whereas seasonally the August figure is usually slightly smaller than the July total. The failure of debits to show a decline in August may be attributable in part to Treasury withdrawals from Tax and Loan accounts at commercial banks. In comparison with August last year, debits showed an increase of 10.9%, the smallest margin in more than a year, reflecting the levelling off of debits activity during the spring and summer in contrast to the rapid expansion in the same period of 1950. TEN LARGEST CENTERS Debits at the large centers in August fell slightly below the July level but still established a record for the month, 10.9% above the year-ago figure. However, half of the cities registered increases over the July volume. Akron continued to lead in year-to-year comparisons with a margin of 22.2%, but for the first time since February, Akron debits for the past three months combined failed to register a new all-time high. Cleveland and Youngstown also scored in creases of more than 15% over August 1950. At Pittsburgh banks, the year-to-year increment dipped to 10.1%, below the average for the ten large cities, but in comparison with August 1948, Pittsburgh ranked second with an increase of 45%. TWENTY-ONE SMALLER CENTERS Debits at the smaller centers in August exceeded the July volume, in contrast to the usual seasonal movement and to the decline at the large centers. All but two of the smaller centers, Lima and Portsmouth, reported higher debits totals in August than in the previous month; while in the rapid upsurge of business activity in the summer of 1950, four of the smaller centers registered July-August declines. The resulting year-to-year increment, 10.3%, was slightly higher than in July. Four of the smaller centers, Hamilton, Lorain, Middletown and Springfield regis tered new all-time highs in August. Middletown again registered the widest margin over the comparable period of last year, 32.4%, for June, July and August combined, followed by Elyria, Warren and Hamilton, all with gains of more than 20%. Indexes of Department Store Sales and Stocks Daily Average for 1935-1939= 100 Adjusted for Without Seasonal Variation Seasonal Adjustment Aug. July Aug. Aug. July Aug. 1951 1951 1950 1951 1951 1950 SALES: Akron (6)................................339 341 348 288 286 296 Canton (5).............................. 391 375 385 344 315 339 Cincinnati (8).........................326 326 370 271 251 307 Cleveland (11)....................... 287 274 300 252 222 264 Columbus (5).........................360 358 382 303 286 321 Erie (4)................................... 388 371 373 322 289 310 Pittsburgh (8)........................286 276 322 243 199 274 Springfield (3)........................310 294 331 257 238 275 Toledo (6)...............................312 307 317 262 237 267 Wheeling (6)...........................274 258 286 208 196 229 Youngstown (3)..................... 365 371 350 317 282 305 District (98)...........................312 309 334 271 241 290 STOCKS* District...................................323 349 265 341 348 280 Monthly Business Review P age 12 A October 1, 1951 Sizing Up an Investment in Research by CLYDE WILLIAMS, Director, Battelle Memorial Institute “All research must partake as as much of economic horse sense as it partakes of scientific principles,” Charles F. Kettering once said. Ap plied to industrial research, where the know-how of the engineer must work hand-in-glove with that of the economist, economic horse 4 sense is known as engineering econ omics. One of its most important uses is as a management tool for evaluating investment in sound re search programs. Its adoption by alert management is a significant development in the method of doing industrial research. Industry and government are currently investing at an annual rate of $2 billion. Discounting for inflation, this is more than two and one-half times the research expendi tures of 1940. With this generally higher rate of spending, more companies have become more conscious of the need for deliberate, systematic analysis of their research and development programs. Before spending money on developing a new process, or on the expansion of an existing operation, it is good business to obtain an intelligent estimate of the probable size and nature of the market for such items. This includes intensive analysis of competition, present and potential uses for the items, preferences of the industrial consumer or the ultimate consumer, whichever the case may be, and the volume and location of consumer markets. To enable wise selection of materials for a new product or process, special attention must also be paid to the present and probable future supply, demand and cost of raw materials, and semimanufactures. For scientific market analysis on the industrial level, special talents are needed. Only teams of engineering econ omists trained to make accurate economic appraisal of various industrial problems can do an adequate job. Back ing up these teams, there must be technologists experi enced in many industries, from the mining of raw mate rials to the marketing of finished products. An engineering economics staff with diverse industrial experience is prepared to take on a wide variety of econ omic studies. These are tailored to fit the needs of each particular job. Perhaps a company has developed a variety of new chemicals and wishes advice on probable uses and markets for these products at certain prices. Another com pany wants to broaden its activities to cover manufacture of glass, or processing of tungsten, nickel, cobalt, or titan ium. An investment firm or bank wishes advice on the probable effect of new technical developments on certain companies. A geographical region wants a report made of its mineral resources and how they can be used to help attract new industries. The value of engineering economic studies may perhaps best be seen by a quick look at typical examples of such Editor’s Note —While the views expressed on this page are not nec essarily those of this bank, the M onthly Business Review is pleased to make this space available for the discussion of significant develop ments in industrial research. work which Battelle has done in the past. Bituminous Coal Research, Inc., the research organiza tion for the entire bituminous coal industry, was seeking guidance in planning their research program aimed at in creased coal usage. Battelle was asked to make an extensive survey and analysis of the technical and economic factors that control the manufacture of fuel gases from coal. The study concluded generally that fuel gases, produced at coal mines by the cheapest known methods and piped to con suming centers, could not compete with natural gas piped four to six times as far. This situation, it was also found, would probably prevail for many years to come. Possi bilities were reported brightest, however, for one type of fuel gas known as producer gas. Prospects for its increased usage were seen when produced locally at the plant by more modem labor-saving equipment. As a result, a coop erative research program on improvement of producer gas equipment was undertaken by BCR and other interested organizations. In another case, a group of large copper companies asked Battelle to make an intensive economic study of possible new uses for copper. Results of the study sug gested the use of copper compounds as trace elements in fertilizer, and as ingredients in marine anti-fouling paint for ship bottoms. Subsequent research and development of these two new uses for copper helped materially in diversi fying and expanding copper markets prior to the current shortage. Engineering economic studies become particularly im portant if a company wants to get into new or related product lines in which it is not experienced. In this case, an unusual need exists for economic analysis by the organi zation which maintains an extensive pool of talents and equipment to service all industries. In the present international situation, where the supply of many raw materials is dependent on political factors, engineering economics takes on special significance. Under such circumstances, it is vital for industry and government to keep a continuous check on the availability of raw materials and on substitutes that may be used if normal sources are cut off. Often the development of a new product or process, or the expansion of existing operations, brings with it problems of industrial logistics. “How can these materials be brought to our plant, processed, and distributed as finished products to the largest market in a way that will ensure maximum profits?” Each phase of solving this type of logistics problem involves cost studies as well as techni cal know-how. Alternative solutions must be weighed be fore a decision can be made that will stand up under strongly competitive conditions. A fundamental purpose of engineering economic studies is to guide the development of sound industrial research programs. In evaluating raw material supplies, industrial plant locations, markets for new products and processes, the engineering economist is hunting for answers that are economically practical. His findings are vital to smooth flowing production of goods. The research that counts in modem business is directed by men who know costs and markets as well as technology.