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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions
in the
Fourth Federal Reserve District
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Vol. 11
Cleveland, Ohio, October 1, 1929
Business in the Fourth District is preparing to enter
the fourth quarter of the year at a level which is still
above 1928 but which is somewhat more irregular than
has been noted in former months.
Iron and steel operations are showing a tapering from
the records attained in mid-summer, which is contrary to
the usual seasonal trend. Many mills have worked off their
backlogs and are dependent upon current orders to main
tain production. Such orders declined in September, re
flecting in part, reduced demand from the automobile in
dustry. Ford and Chevrolet have lowered schedules to an
extent which more than offsets the gains shown by some
of the producers of larger cars. Tire production continues
to decline. Seasonal increases are reported by manufac
turers of glass, hardware, paint, electrical supplies, and
stoves. Retail trade showed an increase of 8 per cent in
August and September sales are reported to be in good
volume. Shoe production did not show the seasonal in
crease in August but the year so far is only slightly be
hind 1928.
Coal production continues in good volume.
Building, particularly residential, continues to lag and
prices of construction materials have shown a downward
tendency. Unusually dry weather resulted in declines in
all crop estimates in this District except wheat which was
already harvested. Money rates remain firm with a hard
ening tendency in industrial centers but there is no evi
dence that commercial requirements cannot be met.
FINANCIAL
Between the middle of August and the middle of Sep
tember there was a further rapid increase in loans for
commercial and agricultural purposes at member banks in
leading cities. Security loans also increased, while in
vestments continued to decline. In the Fourth District,
security loans continued to advance while investments and
commercial loans showed a slight decline.
Reserve Bank Credit. During the first half of Septem
ber the volume of reserve bank credit outstanding was
about $120,000,000 larger than in the middle of the year.
The increase was for the most part in the reserve banks'
acceptance holdings and reflected chiefly growth in the
demand for currency, partly seasonal in character. Dis
counts for member banks, following the increase over the
holiday period early in September, declined at the time of
No. 10
the Treasury financial operations around the middle of
the month, and on September 18 were at a lower level
than at any time since last June.
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland discounts for
member banks increased slightly during the first three
weeks in September and at $76,000,000 on September 18
were $6,000,000 higher than a year ago.
Treasury Financing. The September 16 offering of the
Treasury Department was an issue of 4% per cent cer
tificates of indebtedness, maturing in nine months. The
reduction of
per cent in the interest rate from that
borne by the June offering was associated with exemption
of this issue from all Federal income tax, including ex
emption from the surtax, an important consideration to
subscribers with large personal incomes. That the issue
was quite attractive is shown by the large subscription of
$1,486,000,000, of which only $549,707,500 was allotted.
The quarterly Treasury operations, as a whole, involving
receipt of about $500,000,000 in taxes, retirement of $510,000,000 in maturing certificates and $104,274,000 in 3 ^
per cent notes and interest payments of about $65,000,000,
were handled without marked effect on the money market.
%
Security Prices. The stock market has been decidedly
irregular during the past month with price movements
being alternately strong and weak, but exhibiting a de
cidedly downward course after mid-September. The DowJones average of 30 industrial stocks, after establishing
a new high record on September 3, when it reached 381.17,
declined irregularly during the month and on September
24 stood at 352.61, a drop of over 18 points occurring in
the last week.
Interest Rates. Call money was somewhat easier dur
ing August, the renewal rate averaging 8.23 for the
month as compared with 9.23 in July. In September the
rate ranged between seven and ten per cent, the average
for the first 24 days being 8.06 per cent and reflected an
increase in the supply of demand money. Time money
strengthened about the middle of September and is now
quoted at nine per cent instead of 8%-9, the rate in
August and early September.
Commercial paper rates (90-day, prime) showed a
slight firming in early September and are now quoted at
per cent, but the market has been inactive for some
time. The volume of bankers’ acceptances outstanding has
2
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
shown a large increase. Hates continue at 5% per cent
(90-day, asked).
Money rates in the Fourth District are seasonally
firmer than they were in early summer. Prime commer
cial paper is quoted at 6 per cent in Cleveland, 5%-6 in
Pittsburgh, and 6-6% per cent in Cincinnati. Collateral
loans in September in Cleveland were 6-7 per cent, in
Pittsburgh 6%-6 per cent and in Cincinnati 6-8 per cent.
Debits, Savings, Failures. Debits to individual accounts
in 13 cities in the Fourth District in August amounted to
$2,989,197,000 as compared with $3,246,593,000 in July
and $2,553,261,000 in August, 1928. This was an increase
of 17.1 per cent for the year but was a decline of 7.9 per
cent from July.
Savings deposits in 65 selected banks in this District
amounted to $1,040,456,307 on September 1, an increase
from the preceding month of 0.1 per cent and of 1.8 per
cent from August, 1928.
Failures of commercial firms in the Fourth District, ac
cording to R. G. Dun and Company, numbered 117 in
August, the lowest number reported for any month since
November, 1923. Failures in August, 1928, totaled 156
and in July, 1929, 143. Liabilities of the defaulting con
cerns were larger, amounting to $2,022,000 in August as
against $1,997,000 in July and $4,237,000 in August, 1928.
The following table gives the changes in the main items
of the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and report
ing member banks:
BANKING OPERATIONS
Federal Reserve Banks
Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve System
Bank o f Cleveland
(In Millions)
(In Millions)
Sept. 18, Sept. 19, Aug. Sept. 18, Sept. 19, Anar.
1929
1928 21, 1929 1929
1928 21,1929
Gold
268
285
2,989
800
2,626
2,954
Discounts
..... 76
70
73
984
1,094
986
14
22
241
8
237
182
35
.... 80
29
178
224
148
127
.... 120
105
1,368
1,560
1,283
Federal Reserve notes in
.... 184
200
1,847
1,680
193
1,823
.... 192
198
190
2,428
2,459
2,887
REPORTING MEMBER BANKS
Fourth District
United States
(In Millions)
(In Millions)
Sept. 18, Sept. 19, Ang. Sept. 18, Sept. 19, An*.
----‘
---------1929
1928 21,19?“ 1929
1928
21,1929
Loans on securities ...
743
660
788
7,683
6,874
7,513
All other .............................. 824
807
881
9,569
9,066
9,432
Total loans .......................... 1.567
1,467 1,664 17,262
15.940
16,945
Investments ......................... 680
721
687
5,489
6,039
5.488
Demand deposits ...............1,085
1,047 1,066 13,179
18,045
13,068
Time deposits ....................... 948
964
950
6,805
6,831
6,780
Chevrolet both curtailing, expansion of programs of
smaller makers could not turn the tide. Sheet, strip and
bar mills are most affected.
Continuation of third quarter prices Into the fourth
quarter, coupled with assurances of an easy delivery sit
uation, removed the incentive for noteworthy contracting
in September. Pipe mills also had worked off much of
their backlogs, and heavy inquiry had not materialized
into bookings. August purchases of freight cars, total
ing 2,854, represented a marked increase over the 341 of
July, and indicated heavier steel needs in the falL In
mid-September over 10,000 cars were on active inquiry,
and car shops had prospects of the best fall operations in
five years.
Pig iron selling was unusually steady and heavy through
late August and early September and producers came up
to the fourth quarter with over 75 per cent of their prob
able output committed. Extreme low southern prices were
withdrawn, to the advantage of the northern markets.
Iron and steel scrap prices were strong until mid-Septem
ber, and then developed weakness. Coke and semi-finished steel prices promised to enter the last quarter at
unchanged levels.
Pig iron was produced in August at a daily rate of
120,594 gross tons, compared with 122,016 tons in July,
but the rate was a record for August. The month’s total
was 3,738,438 tons, bringing the 8-month total to 29,158,486 tons, also a record. Seven more stacks were blown
out than in, leaving 210 active as of August 31.
For August the steel ingot daily rate was 182,487
gross tons, compared with 186,080 tons in July and the
alltime peak of 195,302 tons in May. The August total
of ingots was 4,925,802 tons and the 8-month total 38,731,069 tons. Both the August and the 8-month figures
are records.
Following some weakness in July, the Iron Trade Re
view composite of the prices of 14 leading iron and steel
products steadied in August and averaged $36.54, com
pared with $36.71 in July and $34.96 last August
Through the first three weeks of September the index
MANUFACTURING, MINING
Iron and
Steel
Record production of steel through the
summer months brought steel produc
ers in the Pittsburgh-YoungstownCleveland districts to the point in mid-September where
the majority were dependent upon the day-to-day run of
orders. It was the exceptional sheet, strip, plate, shape
and bar mill that had not practically worked off its back
log.
With this condition came a scaling-down of mill opera
tions. In both pig iron and steel ingots August output
made a new record for the month, notwithstanding a con
tinuous decline since May.
Automotive specifications, upon which the District is
greatly dependent, developed a sharp recession in Sep
tember, immediately after Labor Day, and with Ford and
Coal
Production of bituminous coal in the
Fourth District in August totaled 18,000,000 tons, an increase from August,
1928, of 11.7 per cent. Output of mines, as shown on the
chart, has been consistently larger than last year. Pro
duction for the first eight months has amounted to 117.
189,000 tons, surpassing the like period of 1928 by 16 per
cent Part of this increase in activity was in response
to the demand for Lake cargoes to take the place of ore
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
shipments from tipper Lake ports, these loadings so far
this season having increased 19 per cent over the same
period of 1928.
Stocks of coal in hands of industrial consumers have
been reduced until they have abput 26 days* supply on
hand as compared with 37 days’ supply a year ago and
54 days' in 1927. Stocks are now at a point where some
manufacturers are ordering in anticipation of winter needs
but many are still buying on a mine-to-plant basis and
are reluctant to enlarge their stocks. Coal for domestic
consumption in the hands of retail dealers has been in
creasing in preparation for the increased demand which
takes place in October and has been accompanied by an
advance in price.
As the year advances, Fourth District mine operators
report the usual seasonal growth in business which gen
erally reaches the peak in October. Prices have shown
no marked change. Advances shown on a few grades
have been offset by declines in others.
The report just made public for 1928 bituminous coal
production by states shows that West Virginia ranks first
for the second time with Pennsylvania and Kentucky sec
ond and third respectively. Including anthracite produc
tion, Pennsylvania exceeds any other state by a good
margin.
Automobiles
August production of motor vehicles in
the United States which totaled 499,629
units, showed a slight decline from the
500,893 units produced in July but an 8 per cent increase
from August, 1928. The decline from July to August is
in contrast with the movement of automobile production
at the same season of other recent years. Production for
the first eight months amounted to 4,223,414 units and
surpassed the same period of 1928 by 38 per cent. Truck
production showed a decline of 30 per cent from a month
ago and was less than in August, 1928. Passenger car
output showed an increase from July and was 10.9 per
cent larger than a year ago.
Figures of automobile production for September are not
yet available but reports indicate that operations are
showing no increase from August. Ford and Chevrolet
whose production has accounted for 55 per cent of the
industry’s output so far this year, have announced an
important reduction in schedules.
In the Fourth District, sales, as shown by new pas
senger car registrations, continue ahead of a year ago.
August registrations in 59 Ohio counties representing over
80 per cent of the state’s population, showed an increase
of 13 per cent from a year ago, according to the Ohio
State Bureau of Business Research, but declined 10 per
cent from July of this year. Truck registrations in Au
gust were 21 per cent larger than in 1928.
New P iN eicw Car Registration
Ausuat.
%
Jan.-Aug.
Jan.-Aoff.
1929
change
1929
1928
from
1928
Akron ____
1,488
H18.1
18,286
8,946
Canton ......
910
(-11.1
7,994
6.688
Cincinnati .
1,897
- 8.5
16.175
12,586
Cleveland M— 4,722
-18.2
40.980
29.101
Columbus H— 1,402
-10.7
12,232
8,868
D a y t o n ___
1,002
-14.8
9,098
6,566
Toledo ..... .... 1,229
- 6.0
11.671
9,392
Yotmsatown — 849
+ H .6
7,101
5.196
T o t a l __ ****•18,499
+10.6
118,637
86,282
%
change
from
1928
-{-48.5
—41.9
--29.0
--40.8
- - 88.0
-"88.6
--24.8
H-36.7
+87.6
S
Rubber and
Tires
The steady rise in tire production which
began last November apparently reached
its climax in May, for figures of the
Rubber Manufacturer's Association report a continued de
cline in June and July. Production in the latter month of
all types of tires was 6,526,281 casings, a decline from
June of 11.3 per cent and from July, 1928, of 0.5 per
cent. Inventory figures which have been unusually large
during early 1929 showed a favorable decline during July
and represented about three months’ normal supply. July
31 inventories of tires amounted to 15,999,977 units, a de
cline from June of 11.8 per cent but they are still 41 per
cent above July 31, 1928.
Manufacturers of tires in this District do not regard
the large inventory figures with alarm. It has been felt
that inventories of finished products in previous years
were abnormally small, due to the wide fluctuations in
the price of crude rubber. The price this year has been
quite stable around 20 cents a pound with the result that
finished inventories have been carried with much more
confidence.
Imports of crude rubber continue in large volume. For
the month of August they totaled 38,292 tons, as com
pared with 29,805 tons in August, 1928, For the first
eight months of this year imports have amounted to 401,051 tons against 275,684 tons in the same period last
year, an increase of 45.5 per cent. Consumption in Au
gust was only 38,274 tons, the lowest for any month this
year. Eight months’ consumption amounted to 349,108
tons, 20 per cent more than in the same period of last
year and resulted in an increase in stocks of crude rubber
on hand and in transit of 31.6 per cent.
There has been little change in the price of crude rub
ber lately, first latex (spot) being quoted at 19.90 cents
on September 20 as compared with 20.06, the average for
August.
Clothing
Reports received from clothing manu
facturers during the past month indi
cate a variety of conditions with the
majority reporting business in better volume than a year
ago. In an industry as seasonal as this, weather plays an
important part and the lower temperature of September
has stimulated fall buying. Since there has been little
advance ordering for some time past retailers are having
to place renewal orders with manufacturers earlier than
is usual.
Manufacturers of knit goods in this District are expe
riencing a good volume of business which partly com
pensates for the poor spring when production was below
normal. Little advance ordering is being done.
Producers of woolen cloth and manufacturers of wom
en's clothing report larger orders than were received last
year at this time. Prices have shown a decline of from
three to five per cent, but collections are only fair.
Retail sales in the clothing departments of department
stores showed the following increases from August, 1928:
women’s coats, 7.1; women’s suits, 20.6; women’s dresses,
2.1; misses’ ready-to-wear, 11.8; sports’ wear, 14.0; men’s
furnishings, 2.3; men’s hats and caps, 21.8; and boys’
wear, 10.6 per cent. Declines were shown in aprons and
housedresses, 12.9; silk and muslin underwear, 4.4; and
men’s clothing 4.6 per cent.
4
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Shoes
Manufacturers of shoes in this District
report early September business in good
volume. All but two factories are op
erating at the high rate which has prevailed for the past
ten weeks. Salesmen started out with samples about the
middle of September and are beginning to book orders
for spring delivery. So far, however, little advance buy
ing is being done, but orders for fall delivery have been
very satisfactory.
The preliminary report of shoe production in this Dis
trict for August indicated a decline from the same month
last year of 13.7 per cent. The seasonal increase from
July was not so marked this year but production for the
first eight months of 1929 is only 0.3 per cent behind the
corresponding period of 1928. Some of the activity which
usually occurs in August, took place earlier in the year.
Sales of shoes by retailers, as indicated by reports from
31 department stores, showed increases in all lines.
Women's shoes increased 7.3 per cent; children's shoes,
8.9; and men’s and boys’, 2.2 per cent. Wholesale shoe
stores continue to show declines in sales, the loss in Au
gust being 14.6 per cent. The fact that sales have been
consistently behind 1928 levels is partly accounted for
by the increase in the number of chain organizations op
erating in this field who buy direct from the manufac
turer.
The hide and leather market remains firm. Stocks of
hides and skins have declined but holdings of sole leather
have advanced. Prices of hides advanced rather sharply
in August averaging 18.88 cents a pound as compared
with 17.90 in July but were considerably less than the
23.62 average of August, 1928.
Other
Manufacturing
General manufacturing activity in August as measured by the consumption of
electrical energy was about five per cent
greater than a year ago in this District but seasonal cur
tailment to a moderate extent occurred during the month.
In early September some lines reported a seasonal in
crease but some report further declines, the general level
being above 1928, however.
Very little advance buying is noticed, the ratio of in
ventories to total resources being only fractionally larger
than it was a year ago. Orders for the most part are
for immediate delivery.
Agricultural Implements. Early fall business reported
to be better than a year ago. Prices have become some
what stabilized.
Electrical Supplies. Seasonal increases in orders are
being reported. Some advance ordering is being done and
collections are good.
Glass. Demand for plate glass continues about on the
level of preceding months, the slackening in automotive
orders being counteracted by an increase in other de
mands. Sales of ordinary glass have increased seasonally
and equal or exceed production. Demand for moulded and
table glassware has shown improvement but orders are
still less than they were last year. Prices are low on all
grades of glass.
Hardware, Machinery. Hardware demand continues
good and above last year levels. Seasonal orders are be
ing placed. Machinery supply concerns report a slowing
down from a record summer but this is not regarded as
significant. Demand for machine tools and drills, while
being varied, is good. Collections are satisfactory.
Metal Containers. Tin plate mills have curtailed pro
duction due to lighter demand for containers on the part
of canners. One container concern reports orders in the
usual good volume.
Motor Accessory. Manufacturers are still busy but op
erations have shown some decline during the past month.
Paint. Orders have been somewhat stimulated by ad
vancing prices, particularly of linseed oil. Practically
all the paint and varnish concerns in this District, many
of which supply the automobile trade, have been operat
ing at capacity and still continue at high levels.
Paper. Better grades of paper are in good demand with
orders ahead of last year. Boxboard mills are operating
under difficulty of low prices and overproduction.
Stoves. Seasonal increases in stove and kitchen equip
ment sales are reported for September. Prices and collec
tions are good.
COMMODITY
PRICE
\ /\
\* .
A
I NDEX
A-a
\
/ N~ ^
/
/
V
'v
/A
/
V
/
------ALL COI MMODITIES
------ FARM 1PRODUCTS
..........NON -A< SRIGULTURAI
1
I
1
>925__________ I 9 2 6 __________ 192 7___________1 92S__________ >9 2 9
Commodity
Prices
The United States Bureau of Labor
Statistics Index of Commodity Prices
showed a slight decline in August both
in the agricultural and non-agricultural groups. As noted
on the chart, the wholesale price of farm products has
been consistently above the general level of prices since
the middle of 1927. The index of agricultural prices,
which in August was 107.1 compared with 107.6 in July
and 107.0 in August, 1928, was relatively higher than the
index of non-agricultural commodities. This latter index
in August was 94.3 as compared with 95.5 in July and
96.7 in August, 1928. The rather sharp advance in the
farm products group during June and July was a re
sult of the increase in the prices of grains caused by
declines in production.
AGRICULTURE
The drought, which was experienced generally in August,
caused crop prospects to decline 5 per cent during the
month and means that crop yields are now expected to
be nine per cent below last year’s harvest and six per
cent below the ten-year average.
In the Fourth District prospects of the important crops
as of September 1 were, with the exception of wheat,
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
slightly lower than they were a month ago. The dry
weather during August and early September aided in
harvesting of the grain and hay crops but adversely af
fected all crops in the growing stage. Fall plowing for
winter wheat has also been curtailed because of the
drought.
Fourth District
United States
(000 omitted)
Estimate Crop
% inc. Estimate
Crop
Sept. 1 Harvested or dec.
Sept. 1 Harvested
1929
1928
1929
1928
— 6.8 2,455,997 2,835,678
Corn (bu.) ...........163,872 174,381
Wheat (bu.) .... .. 88,640
18,167
- f 198.5
785,726
902,191
Oats (bu.) ......... 63,480 106,377
— 40.3 1,204,987 1,448,677
Hay (tons) .......... 6,627
6,940
+11.6
98,600
92,988
Tobacco (lbs.) ....187,976 117,608
+17.8 1,462,321 1,378,189
Potatoes (bu.) ..... 19,888
28,511
— 17.5
349,112
464,480
% inc.
or dec.
— 18.4
— 12.9
— 16.8
-f0.7
+ 6.1
—24.8
The table above shows the estimated production of
principal crops, based on the September 1 condition, for
the Fourth District and the United States as a whole,
compared with the actual harvest in the 1928 crop year.
It will be noted that, with the exception of oats, estimated
production of the principal crops in this District makes a
more favorable showing than does the entire country when
compared with last year's production. The declines shown
for the District are less and the gains larger, than those
reported for the country as a whole.
In regard to the crops individually, corn prospects
declined sharply in all states in this District during
August. In Ohio the condition on September 1 was re
ported as 72 per cent of normal, compared with 79 last
year and 81, the ten-year average. In Pennsylvania the
crop is the poorest on record, being only 66 per cent of
normal as against 84, the ten-year average. Kentucky
and West Virginia show conditions of 71 and 74 per
cent respectively as compared with 80 and 84, the tenyear average. The crop in the entire District is very
irregular, some fields being late and some ripening pre
maturely because of lack of moisture. Silo-filling began
early in September and general harvest started in some
sections about two weeks earlier than usual.
The yield of oats shows a big decline from last year
when an unusually large acreage was planted and har
vested. The decline is due partly to a decline in acreage
but the acre yield is smaller than it has been in many
years.
The condition of the potato crop is much below average
and in Pennsylvania was the lowest since 1911. Many
vines died three to four weeks earlier than usual and
consequently there will be many small potatoes. Some
growers, particularly in the northern part of the District
report almost an entire failure.
The wheat crop showed an increase of 193.6 per cent
in this District over last year and was somewhat above
average. According to the United States Department of
Agriculture, farmers throughout the country intend to
plant 1.2 per cent more wheat this year than they did a
6
year ago. All states in the Fourth District show in
creases ranging from two to eight per cent. Unless a
good rain occurs soon, however, the acreage will be ma
terially lessened because the ground has been too dry to
work and plant.
Fruit prospects show little change from a month ago.
Apples are almost a failure in Kentucky and Ohio and
are much below average in West Virginia and Penn
sylvania. Peaches are generally poor but are better in
Pennsylvania than in the other three states. Pears prom
ise only a small crop. Grapes, which were thought to be
a total failure early in the year, have shown much im
provement and though the crop is now much less than last
year’s large crop, it compares more favorably with the
five-year average than was expected. Harvesting began
about a week earlier than usual this year.
Canning
There has been a decided change in
conditions in the canning industry dur
ing the past month. Unfavorable wea
ther has reduced the prospective pack of tomatoes and
corn and has resulted in a consequent advance in prices.
Buying on the part of wholesalers has been rather brisk.
Tobacco
Rains which occurred about the first
of September greatly benefited the to
bacco still in the fields but most of the
earlier crop had been harvested before the rain. Drought
seriously retarded growth in many sections and early
crops show leaves of only medium size in addition to
other damage.
Kentucky's September 1 prospect of total production of
tobacco of all types was estimated to be 355,509,000
pounds as compared with 300,600,000 pounds harvested in
1928. The increase is due to a much larger acreage this
year rather than to better crop conditions. The crop
which has been cut is curing well but it is too early to
make any definite statement as to its general quality.
The Department of Agriculture's estimate of the total
1929 production of all types of tobacco grown wholly or
partly in the District compared with the harvest of 1928
is as follows (in pounds):
Type
1929
Burley ......................................300,203,000
Green River ............................ 28,500,000
Henderson ................................ 8,600,000
Hopkinsville-Clarksville .......... 95,500,000
One-sucker............................... 26,512,000
Paducah ................................... 44,785,000
1928
272,718,000
18,900,000
6,000,000
75,500,000
20,086,000
28,825,000
For the United States the latest estimate points to a
crop (all types) of 1,462,321,000 pounds compared with
1,378,139,000 pounds, the harvest last year. This in
crease due to increased acreage in most sections comes
at a favorable time. Old stocks are extremely limited and
are smaller than have been reported for several years.
6
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
of each year from 1923 to 1929 inclusive. It will be
noted that the ratio of residential to total contracts for
the years preceding 1929 has been fairly constant but
this year it has declined to 27.9 per cent. This is also
shown on the chart which brings out the fact that resi^
dential contracts did not show the increase this spring
that is usually experienced.
BUILDINC C O N TR A C TS A W A R D E D
IN THOUSANDS
I00|-----
_______________FOURTH DISTRICT________________
3 all other co n tr a c ts
■ r e s id e n t ia l c o n t r a c t s
BUILDING
Building activity in the District as measured by the
volume of contracts awarded has made an unfavorable
showing so far this year as compared with the same
period of 1928, and is lower than for any like period since
1924. For the first eight months, contracts awarded in the
Fourth District, according to the F. W. Dodge Corporation,
amounted to $429,382,000, a decline of 2.7 per cent from
the total for the same period of 1928 which was the
second lowest total reported for the period since 1924.
As shown on the chart, however, the total has been
buoyed up by institutional, commercial, and public build
ing. Residential contracts so far in 1929 amounted to
only $119,831,000, a decline from last year of 23.3 per
cent.
Residential
Total
Contracts
Contracts
Ratio
(in thousands of dollars)
1923
125,100
346,795
36.1
1924
118,217
320,957
36.8
1925
180,189
508,610
35.4
1926
163,277
463,070
35.3
1927
163,956
484,394
33.8
1928
156,187
441,178
35.4
1929
119,831
429,382
27.9
The above table shows the total and residential con
tracts awarded in this District for the first eight months
Building Operations
Akron...............
Ashtabula.........
Barberton.........
Canton..............
Cincinnati........
Cleveland.........
Cleve. suburbs:
Cleve. Heights.
East Cleveland
Euclid.............
Garfield Heights
Lakewood.. . .
Parma.............
Rocky River..
Shaker Heights
Columbus..........
Covington, K y.
Dayton.............
Erie, Pa...........
Hamilton..........
Lexington, Ky.
Lima.................
Newark.............
Pittsburgh, Pa..
Springfield........
T oledo..............
Wheeling, W. Va
Youngstown.. .
T o u l.............
(Value of Permit*)
Jan.-Aug.
August,
,%
change
1929
1929
from 1928
14,288,568
1,396,634
+ 8.1
— 41.7
477,895
21,288
— 10.0
807,388
53,635
2,871.235
+ 9.4
240,660
23,250,125
4,511,975
+ 7.6
— 58.1
27,313,225
2,857,475
Jan.-Aug.
1928
%
change
12,035,957
313,426
634,698
2,801,373
24,237,005
38,969,275
+ 18.7
+ 52.5
+ 27.2
+ 2.5
4.1
— 29.9
1,974,995
1,615,151
1,714,460
910,650
1,234,438
1,838,516
1,192,674
4,303,650
7,483,450
888,975
4,105,880
5,143,466
1,317,313
1,794,389
360,850
532,545
21,445,925
1,518,276
11,205,525
1,257,305
3,778,068
144,624,937
3,315,585
632,350
1,708,956
1,228,550
4,185,466
1,932,439
866,063
5,720.435
12,770,400
1,227,500
8,720,226
2,639.737
1,523,761
1,175,926
318,229
941,480
30,299,514
949.215
13,041,640
1,360,600
6,298.458
179,848,264
40.4
+155.4
+ 0.3
25.9
— 70.5
— 4.9
+ 37.7
24.8
— 41.4
— 27.6
— 52.9
+ 94.8
—
13.5
+ 52.6
+ 13.4
— 43.4
29.2
+ 60.0
—
— 14.1
7.6
40.0
— 19.6
216,625
35,420
112,395
103,500
56,014
306,335
121,724
481.200
687.000
99,400
325,515
531.456
120.168
211,718
16,435
106,260
1,742,265
131,470
3,155.536
118,860
399.276
18,160,239
+
-1+
—
—
+
—
—
—
—
—
+
—
—
—
—
—
4+
—
—
—
24.2
19.6
47.7
15.4
7.4
56.9
17.0
41.8
39.2
35.5
53.0
52.9
73.9
16.4
14.3
72.5
45.0
41.6
65.8
57.1
28.8
23.4
__
Fourth District August contracts awarded showed an
increase both as compared with August, 1928, and with
July, which was contrary to the decline reported for the
country as a whole. Residential contracts showed an
increase of 0.7 per cent from last year and total con
struction was 23.2 per cent greater than a year ago.
Early September showed improvement from August but
was behind September, 1928.
Building permits issued in 27 cities in the District to
taled $18,160,239 in August, a decline of 23.4 per cent
from last year. Increases were shown in ten cities, the
largest of which were Akron, Canton, Cincinnati, Parma,
Erie, Springfield, and Toledo.
Lumber and building supply concerns report a slight
improvement in demand in early September which is
seasonal. Reflecting the slump in residential building,
prices of lumber have declined since February and cement
prices were lowered during the month. A buyer’s market
prevails and no advance ordering is being done. Collec
tions are reported fair.
TRADE
Retail
Trade
Sales of 62 department stores in this
District in August were 8.8 per cent
larger than a year ago. All reporting
cities showed increases, the largest being in Cleveland,
+11.9, and Pittsburgh, +10.4 per cent. For the first
eight months of this year department store sales have
shown an increase of 3.6 per cent, every city reporting
a gain except Wheeling. Stocks for the month were
lower than a year ago. Accounts receivable were larger
but collections averaged 9.2 per cent larger than in Aug*
ust, .1928.
Wholesale
Trade
Wholesale grocery firms in the Fourth
District reported an increase of 4.7 per
cent in sales in August compared with
a year ago and for the year-to-date sales are 2.3 per cent
larger than in 1928. Hardware and drug firms reported
increases in August of 3.5 and 2.2 per cent respectively.
Dry goods sales were slightly less than a year ago.
Wholesale shoe firms continue to show rather large de
clines in sales, the loss for August being 14.6 per cent.
It is the only line which reports a loss for the first eight
months of 1929 as compared with the same period of 1928.
All lines but hardware report a decline in stocks. Ac
counts receivable show a decline but all reporting groups
except shoes show an increase in collections.
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
7
Fourth District Business Statistics
(All figures for Fourth District unless otherwise specified)
Aug.
1929
Bank Debits (24) cities)
Millions of dollars
S *Ohio
!1.".** (39 banks)(end
month)
Thousands of dollars
Western Pennslyvania (26 basks)
Total (65 banks)
Commercial Failures — Number
Actual Number
^
**
M — Liabilities
Thousands of dollars
Postal Receipts— 9 cities
Sales— Life Insurance—Ohio and Pa.
44 —
Stores (60 firms)
— Wearing Apparel (15 firms)
— Furniture (46 ) firms
“ — Wholesale Grocery (41 firms)
M—
**
Dry Goods Q2 firms)
—
••
Hardware (17 firms)
_
Drugs (13 firms)
Building Permits, Valuation— 27 cities
“
Contracts — Total, 4th District
_ .
.
“
— Residential, 4th District
Production — Pig Iron, U. S.
Thousands of tons
**
— Steel Ingots, U. S.
— Automobiles, U. S.
Passenger Cart
Actual
Number
44
44
m
Trucks
— Bituminous CoaL 4th District
Thousands of tons
— Cement: Ohio, W. Va., Wn. Pa.
M barrels
M
— Electric Power: Ohio, Pa., Ky.
Millions of k.w. hra.
M
— Petroleum: Ohio, Pa., Ky.
Thousands of barrels
M
— Shoes, 4th District
**
“ pairs
— Tires
44
M casings
Bituminous Coal Shipments (from Lake Erie Ports)
44
*4 tons
Iron Ore Receipts (at Lake Erie Ports)
*8 months average
Aug.
1928
3,554
3,084
763,586
276.870
1,040.456
117
2.022
2.968
105.220
23,153
1,531
1.218
6.872
2.311
2 150
1.774
18.160
62.111
14.457
3.738
4,926
746,612
275.315
1,021,927
156
4,231
2.865
95.844
21,275
1.528
1,189
6.561
2 321
2 078
1.736
23.703
50.408
14.353
3,137
4,178
443.714
54.918
18,000
2,047
1,265*
2,394*
400.124
60,705
16,118
2.190
1,031*
2,096s
4,856*
5,604
7,518
4,920*
5,666
6,390
4
4
ch .otc
Jan.-Aug.
1929
Jan.-Aug.
1928
28,687
26,198
+ 15.2
change
+ 9.5
+ 2.3
+ 0.6
+ 18
— 25 0
— 52 2
+ 3.6
+ 9.8
+ 8.8
+ 0.2
+ 2.4
+ 4.7
— 0 4
+ 3.5
+ 22
— 23 4
+23 2
+ 0.7
+ 1 9 .2
+ 1 7 .9
776.4181
277.5281
1,053.945*
1.281
24.933
24.605
847.067
193 046
12.292
8,652
48,837
15 937
17.201
14.211
144.625
429 382
119,831
29.162
38,728
745.582*
273.727*
1,019,309*
1,344
38.916
24 228
931.260
186.300
12.379
8,547
47.717
15.560
16,770
13,540
179.848
441.178
156,187
24.720
32,783
+ 4.1
4- 1.4
+ 3.4
— 4.7
— 35.9
+ 1.6
— 9 0
+ 3 6
— 0 .7
+ 1.2
2 3
2 4
2 6
+ 1 0 .9
— 9.5
+ 1 1 .7
— 6.5
+ 2 2 .7
+ 1 4 .2
— 13.7
— 1.3
— 1.1
+ 1 7 .6
3,642,211
568, S19
135.777
10,558
8.582s
14,570*
2,701.323
349,540
117,189
11.443
7.626*
14.1913
38,309*
24.760
29,956
33.904*
20.824
21,515
+ 3 4 .8
+ 6 2 .6
+ 1 5 .9
— 7.7
+ 1 2 .5
+ 2.7
— 0.3
+13 0
+ 18.9
+ 3 9 .2
4
52
— 19.6
— 2.7
-2 3 .3
+ 1 8 .0
+ 18.1
4
'July
•jaouary-luly
‘ Figures Confidential
Fourth District Business Indexes
(1923-1925 -
100)
m*9
Retail and Wholesale Trade
(1929 compared with 1928)
DEPARTM ENT STORES (60)
Akron.................................................
Cincinnati*..........................................
Cleveland..........................................
Columbus..........................................
Dayton..............................................
Pittsburgh..........
Toledo................
wheeling............ ;;; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ;; ; ; ;
Other Cities................
District..............................
........
WEARING APPAREL (18)
Cincinnati....................
Cleveland...............
Other Cities............ ..........................
District...............
FURNITURE (46)..........................
Gntinnati..................
Cleveland................
Columbus................
Dmrton................... ........................
Toledo.................... *t ' * ] ...................
Other Cities........
District..............................................
CHAIN STORE*
Drugs— District (3 )___
Groceries— District ( 4) .........................
WHOLESALE GRC)CERIES (41)
Cincinnati........ !'.*.*.!.............................
Cleveland...............
* ........................
Erie..................... ..........................*
Pittsburgh..............
Toledo.................... .................................
Other Cities..............
District..................... ..........................
WHOLESALE DRY GOODS (12V
WHOLESALE DRUGS (13)
WHOLESALE H A D W aR E i(1 7 )..
WHOLESALE SHOES (5 )7 ..............
P*r individual unit operated.
Percentage
_Increase or Decrease
SALES
SALES
STOCKS
Aug.
First
Aug.
Aug.
8 mos.
Aug.
+ 6.0
7.6
3.1
4.1
+
1. 2
+ 11.9
+ 4.8
+ 7.5
+ 10.4
+ 7.6
+ 0.7
r 12.8u
+
+ g 'g
0.6
0.6
2.7
9.5
2.6
5.9
3.6
6.6
+ 5.7
— 5.0
+ 5.1
+ 0.2
—
— 0.7
+ 7.5
+ 14.8
+ 6.4
— 20.7
+ 3.0
+ 14.6
+ 2.4
+
—
—
+
+
—
+ 0.8
+ 1.2
+ 3.1
+11.8
+
+
—
+
0.9
8.9
6.3
4.4
— 0.1
+ 3.4
+ 4.7
— 0.4
+ 2.2
+ 3.5
—U. 6
2.2
—
+
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
8.9
3.3
3.3
3.7
2.9
3.5
8.3
9.5
6.0
— 3.6
— 13.5
— 6.9
— 5.0
4. L
0.4
7.8
6.9
6.5
+ 1.2
— 3.3
+ 4.2
2.4
3.2
0.5
6.3
5.3
+ 2.8
+ 5.2
+ 2.3
+ 2.6
+ 5.2
-+ 2.6
— 16.2
— 7.4
—
12.0
+ 8*6
— 26.2
Aug.
1928
114
107
96
110
115
85
111
95
99
87
98
94
106
83
89
182
123
113
130
Aug.
1927
111
119
97
111
HI
93
106
102
96
93
98
94
131
114
88
164
120
109
140
Aug. Aug.
1926 1925
104
99
95
105
60
110
104
96
105
103
85
80
102
101
89
95
96
98
95
90
96
96
103
103
121
138
98
127
101
96
152
151
117
103
106
105
110
118
4 “',rin
1 individual unit operated
flneludes 3 shoe firms
Debits To Individual Accounts
+12.1
+ 1.1
+
+
—
—
+
Bank Debits (24 cities)................................... 131
Commercial Failures (Number)...................... 80
**
'*
(L iab ilities)................ 46
Postal Receipts (9 cities)................................ 114
Sales— Life Insurance (Ohio and P a.).......... 126
44 — Department Stores (59 firms)............ 92
44 — Wholesale Drugs (13 firms)............... 113
“ —
M
Dry Goods (12 fir m s ).... 95
44 —
“
Groceries (41) fir m s )...,. 103
'* —
**
Hardware (15 firms).........100
“ —
M
All (85 firms)f................... 103
*4 — Chain Drugs (3 firms)**..................... 95
Building Contracts (Total)............. .............. 130
“
*'
(Residential)................... 84
Production — Coal (0 ., Wn. Pa., E. K y.)___ 100
— Cement (0.. Wn. Pa.. W. V a.).. 170
— Elec. Power (0., Pa., K y .)*___ 151
**
— Petroleum (O., Pa., K y .)*........ 130
— Shoes........................................... 112
Akron................
Butler, Pa........
Canton..............
Cincinnati........
Cleveland.........
Columbus..........
ConnellsviUe. . .
Dayton.............
Erie, Pa............
Franklin, P a ...
Greensburg, Pa.
Homestead, Pa.
Lexington, Ky..
Lima.................
Lorain...............
Middletown... .
Oil City. Pa___
Pittsurgh, Pa.. .
Springfield........
Steubenville___
Toledo..............
Warren.........
Wheeling, W. Va.
Y oungstown....
Zanesville.........
T o u t ............
(In thousands of dollars)
1929 to
4 weeks
%
ending
change
date (Dec.
28-Sept.
Sept. 18,
from
1929
1928
99,115
1,085,821
+ 5.1
12,129
114.625
+ 9.2
49.700
507.924
+ 6.6
368.822
4,082.052
+ 5.1
855.704
8,495,662
+ 18.8
163.153
1,723.120
+ 13.7
3.484
34.592
— 6.3
991.322
102.968
+ 19.4
40.544
367,208
+ 16.3
5,476
53,985
+ 22.2
22.157
195.094
+ 28.6
43.714
4.414
+ 12.5
267.281
19.902
+ 7.9
148.831
17,235
+ 9.6
57.766
6,457
— 9.3
117.877
11,970
+ 5.5
173.905
17.934
+ 2.0
9,995.159
945,779
+ 7.9
228.456
22,270
+ 8.9
115,948
14,096
+ 14.8
2,130,556
186,001
— 21.6
139.582
17,695
+ 31.2
463.573
— 3.8
45,178
737.266
73,235
+ 12.0
118.905
11,605
— 5.9
32,390,224
3,117,023
+ 8.5
1928 to
date (Dec.
26-Se^t.
974.841
100.164
446.184
3.991.973
7.410.460
1,507.817
37.707
873.022
328.108
47.823
186.106
38.635
221.344
140.543
57.153
115.763
IS 2.998
8,826.328
203,873
106.138
2,446.593
122.691
443.505
648.348
117.549
29,545,666
change
from
1928
11.4
14.4
13.8
2.3
14.6
14.3
8.3
13.6
11.9
12.9
4.8
13.1
20.8
5.9
1.1
1.8
13.7
13.2
12.1
9.2
12.9
13. S
4.5
13.7
1.2
9.6
8
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Summary of National Business Conditions
By the Federal Reserve Board
Production in basic industries increased somewhat in August as com
pared with July, but the increase was less than is usual at this season, with
the consequence that the Board’s index of industrial production, which makes
allowance for usual seasonal changes, showed a decline. Wholesale prices
declined slightly. Credit extended by member banks increased between the
middle of August and the middle of September, reflecting chiefly a growth
in commercial loans.
Production
Index number of production of manufactures
and minerals combined, adjusted for seasonal
variations (1923*1925 average — 100). Latest
figure: August, 123.
«25
Cars of revenne freight loaded as reported by
the American Railway Association. Index num
bers adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-25
average = 100). Latest figures, August, total,
109— miscellaneous, 113.
During the month of August there was a reduction in the output of iron
and steel and copper, and a slight decline in the production of automobiles.
Meat packing establishments were also somewhat less active during the
month, while seasonal increases were reported in the production of textiles
and shoes, coal and cement, flour and sugar, and petroleum output continued
to expand. A slight increase in the number of workers employed in factories
was accompanied by a substantial increase in payrolls. This increase was
especially notable in industries manufacturing products for th© autumn re
tail trade, such as clothing and furniture.
For the first two weeks of September, reports indicate a further decline
in steel operations, reduction in lumber output resulting in part from the
Labor Day holiday, and a continued seasonal rise in coal production.
In the construction industry contracts awarded in August were 25 per
cent less than in July, reflecting a sharp decline in the residential group as
well as in contracts for public works and utilities which were unusually large
in July. As compared with last year, contracts were 5 per cent lower in
August, but in the first two weeks of September they were in approximately
the same volume as in 1928.
The September report of the Department of Agriculture indicates a corn
crop of 2,456,000,000 bushels, 13 per cent less than in 1928 and 11 per cent
under the five-year average. The estimated wheat crop of 786,000,000 bushels
is substantially below last year, but only slightly less than the five-year
average. Cotton production, estimated on August 1 at 15,543,000 bales, is
now expected to total 14,825,000 bales, slightly above last year.
Distribution
Freight car loadings increased seasonally in August, as a consequence
of larger shipments of all classes of freight except grains, which moved in
smaller volume than in July, when shipments of wheat were unusually
large. In comparison with 1928, total car loadings showed an increase of 5
per cent.
Sales of department stores in leading cities were larger than in July
and about 5 per cent above the total of August, 1928.
Prices
*925
1926
1927
1928
Monthly averages of daily figures for 13 Fed
eral reserve banks. Latest figures are averages
of the first 22 days in September.
Monthly averages of weekly figures for report
ing member banks in leading cities. Latest
figures are averages of the first three weeks
in September.
Wholesale prices showed a slight downward movement in August, ac
cording to the index of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. This
reflected chiefly declines in the prices of farm products, especially grains
and flour, and livestock and meats. Woolens and worsteds also decreased in
price, while silk and rayon materials were higher. There was a decline in
prices of iron and steel and automobiles, and a further decrease in prices of
petroleum and its products, especially gasoline. Coal prices advanced during
the month.
In the middle of September the prices of grains, beef, raw sugar, silk
and coal were higher than at the end of August, while prices of hogs, pork,
and cotton were somewhat lower.
Bank Credit
Between the middle of August and the middle of September there was
a further rapid increase in loans for commercial and agricultural purposes
at member banks in leading cities. Security loans also increased, while in
vestments continued to decline.
During the first half of September the volume of reserve bank credit
outstanding was about $120,000,000 larger than in the middle of the year.
The increase was for the most part in the reserve bank's acceptance hold
ings and reflected chiefly growth in the demand for currency, partly seasonal
in character. Discounts for member banks, following the increase over the
holiday period early in September, declined at the time of the Treasury
financial operations around the middle of the month, and on September 18
were at a lower level than at any time since last June.
Open market rates on prime commercial paper increased from a range
of 6-6>4 to a prevailing level of 6U during the first week in September,
while acceptance rates remained unchanged.
@FedFRASER