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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Covering financial* industrial, and agricultural conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Vol. 10 Cleveland, Ohio, October 1, 1928 September closed with industrial activity in the Fourth District at a high point Iron and steel plants during September were able to expand operations on a rising price scale. Heavy automotive demand has been a strong factor in the situation, reacting as it has on the District's steel, accessory, rubber, paint, and glass industries. Vari ous other lines, such as electrical supply and machinery, axe likewise doing more business than a year ago. Money rates are firm, but no shortage of credit for commercial usage is reported from the District’s leading financial centers. An increase in speculative activity on the part of the public is reported by several localities. Solid lint—.weekly Index of ear loadings P. J. B. of Cleveland (1923-1925 = 190). Latest !PELS W*tk “ »din* September 8—19S.4. Brok•» Iwa—montlily Index of industrial prodncHK* P«d*ral Reserve Board (1923-1925 = 199). Latest Scare: Aurust—113. Bath carves adjnstsd for seasonal variation. FINANCIAL Tlie five weeks ending September 22 have witnessed jtorther tightening in call and time money rates, increas ing speculative activity on the New York stock exchange, ana larger borrowings from the Federal Reserve System r^ Ji •^anks. Gold imports and exports have been negligible in comparison with earlier months, the counif sto°k of 8howinS a slight gain during August. Money Rates. The spread between rates in New York No. 10 on call and time money, used for stock exchange loans, and commercial paper and bankers’ acceptances, used largely for commercial purposes, has become more marked in recent weeks. Since August 20, when call money re newed at 6 per cent, the renewal rate has been either 7 or 7% per cent except on September 21, when it rose to 8 per cent. The average renewal rate for the first 22 days of September was 7.42, as compared with 6.81 in August, 6.12 in July, and 3.74 for the first 22 days of September, 1927. Time money has also strengthened, the 90-day rate advancing from 6*6 to 7 per cent on Septem ber 10, 1*4 on the 18th, and 7%-% per cent on the 21st. Commercial paper rates, on the other hand, have held steady for some time at 5% per cent (90-day, prime), while 90-day bankers’ acceptances (asked) declined from 4% to 4tVz per cent on August 31, remaining at the lat ter figure since that date. There is thus a spread of 3 per cent between acceptances and call money, and of 2 per cent between prime commercial paper and call money. These differences are considerably larger than in the past. Money rates in Cleveland are firmer than in the early summer, but show little change as compared with a month ago. Prime commercial paper ranges between 5% and 6 per cent, and collateral loans are 5%-6. In Cin cinnati, these rates are 5%-6 and 5%-7 per cent respec tively, and in Pittsburgh the quotation on both is 5-6 per cent. It should be remembered in discussing the present money situation that this is the season of normal strengthening of rates in connection with crop-moving. Reserve Bank Credit. Bills discounted by the Reserve System declined irregularly for several weeks following the year’s peak on July 10, but since August 15 have again moved upward, standing at $1,094,000,000 on Sep tember 19, as compared with $1,037,000,000 on August 22 and $415,000,000 a year ago. Acceptance holdings have increased seasonally, standing at $237,000,000 on Septem ber 19 as compared with $184,000,000 a month ago, and $219,000,000 a year ago. Government security holdings have changed but little, the figure of $225,000,000 on Sep tember 19 being $18,000,000 larger than a month earlier. As compared with a year ago, however, there is a drop of $259,000,000. For the Cleveland bank, discounts on September 19 were $70,000,000, a sharp drop for the week and a drop of nearly $50,000,000 from the year’s high on July 3. Ac ceptance holdings at $21,800,000 are up seasonally, while 2 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Government securities at $35,200,000 were slightly higher than a month ago. Member Bank Credit* Collateral loans of reporting member banks have shown a declining tendency for two months, reflecting in part the growing practice of large corporations of lending direct to brokers and security dealers. Commercial loans have shown but little change lately. Investment holdings have been noticeably re duced, and time deposits show a corresponding loss, though not so large. Demand deposits have exhibited a very marked downtrend since Spring, another reflection of the withdrawal o f corporation deposits for direct lend ing. Loans to brokers and security dealers made by report ing member banks in New York City have turned sharply upward since mid-August, amounting to $4,470,476,000 on September 19. This is less than $100,000,000 below the high for all time reached on June 6 of this year. The feature of the situation in brokers' loans continues to be the growth in loans made by the banks as agents for corporations and individuals. These now stand at $1,911,104,000 as compared with $910,000,000 a year ago. In the Fourth District, collateral loans have declined somewhat during the past month, "all other” loans have increased, and investments are noticeably lower. Demand deposits have not changed a great deal recently, although lower than in the late Spring. Time deposits have de creased gradually since July 3. Security Prices. The bond market has been stronger recently, after declining for about three months. The New York Times average of 40 bonds was 90.80 on September 19, a gain of about a point for the month. The stock market as a whole marked time during the first three weeks of September, although violent fluctuations in in dividual issues and lines took place. Speculative activity increased as evidenced by heavier trading and larger brokers’ loans. The Dow-Jones industrial average rose from 214.08 on August 14 to 240.38 on September 1—an exceptionally rapid advance—but fluctuated in a narrow range thereafter, standing at 239.40 on September 26. Debits, Failures, Savings. Debits to individual account at 13 leading centers in the Fourth District amounted to $2,553,261,000 in August, as against $2,700,414,000 in July and $2,468,506,000 a year ago. Commercial failures in this District numbered 156 in August, as compared with 132 in July and 174 in August of 1927. Liabilities were $4,231,357 in August, $3,248,216 in July, and $4,276,479 a year ago. In the United States there were 1852 failures in August, 1723 in July and 1708 in August, 1927. Savings deposits in 67 banks in the Fourth District amounted to $1,033,966,343 on September 1, a loss of 1.4 per cent for the month but a gain of 7.8 per cent for the year. The following table gives the changes in the main items o f the balance sheets of Federal Reserve and reporting member banks: Federal Reserve Gold Reserves ..................... Discounts ................... ....... Acceptances -------------- -— U. S. Securities .............. S S T T < £ r ^ nitrz:::::::::::::: Bank of Cleveland Federal Reserve System „ (InMilUons) (In Millions) AusrSept* 12, Sept. 14, Au*. 15 1928 1927 1928 1928 1927 1928 265 309 262 2,629 2,984 2,618 87 40 79 1,069 375 1 002 20 16 20 211 227 lao 35 53 83 221 500 206 142 S? 108 m 182 1*504 w#2 yg f »;«» REPOSTING MEMBER BANKS Fourth District (In Millions) Loans secured by stocks and bonds ....................... 670 616 670 6,721 All other ............................. 800 799 795 9,093 Total loans ....................... 1,470 1,415 1,465 15,814 676 742 6,390 Investments ....................... 722 Demand deposits ........... . 1,044 1,053 1,033 13,197 Time deposits ................... 962 926 980 6,890 United States (In Millions) 6.140 8,707 14,847 5,930 18,544 6,287 6,690 9,040 15,780 6,445 12,952 6,904 MANUFACTURING, MINING Iron and Steel August’s performance in setting a new high steel ingot record was the more impressive because it was apparently the direct reaction to consumptive demand. Consumers of steel experienced unusual and unexpected call for their own products and in turn looked to the steel industry for additional raw material. Although producers in August were announcing higher prices and reduced discounts for cash payments, effective with the fourth quarter, little of the tonnage that made August a record month is be lieved to have been driven in. This condition of strong production and prices con tinued into September and promised to make that month also a record one. Some of early September’s tonnage came under suspicion of being artificial to the extent that consumers were mildly anticipating their requirements, especially in view of advancing prices, but stocking in the pre-war sense did not appear general. Substantially all of the material ordered out in August and September apparently was for a definite consumptive purpose. All sources of outlet for steel, excepting possibly rail road equipment builders, were taking steel beyond their usual requirements. With Ford gradually stepping up his production and other important makers behind orders on new models, automotive consumption was practically record breaking. Farm implement manufacturers were near capacity on their Fall runs. Supplementary orders for track material were up to normal. Indicating the wide distribution of steel rather than tonnage, jobbers in the Middle West were reporting the heaviest demand in many months from country hardware stores. August and early September also saw a heavy buying movement in pig iron, which culminated in a series o f price advances late in August and a secondary one in mid-September, after most users had covered for the last quarter. August shipments, a record for some producers, depleted furnace stocks and such important users as some automotive foundries in Michigan were down to five days’ stocks. By mid-September pig iron prices in the Cleve land and Mahoning Valley were 50 cents to $1.00 per ton higher than 60 days previous. The character of demand benefited northern Ohio Youngstown and Pittsburgh particularly. Pipe mills in August and early September rounded out their rolling schedules so as to leave little unfilled capacity over the remainder of the year. Tin plate mills operated at 90 per cent, winding up their season of 1928 commitments. Sheet mills, especially on the higher finishes, became three and four weeks behind on deliveries to the automotive industry. Strip mills also were pressed to make deliv eries. Scrap iron and steel entered a sharply rising market as consumers bought railroad offerings direct and compelled dealers, many of them “ short” on the market to buy in other districts and at higher prices. ’ August’s record ingot tonnage was 4,187,481, compared THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW with 3,811,573 tons in July, and 3,498,549 tons in August, 1927. The eight-month total stands at 32,782,937 tons, against 80,510,071 tons in the like period of 1927. The August pig iron total was 3,136,008 tons, compared with 3,072,711 tons in July, and 2,950,674 tons in August, 1927. The eight-month total for pig iron is 24,719,182 tons, and in 1927 it was 25,334,626 tons. The disparity between steel ingot and pig iron production is accounted for by the higher percentage of scrap used this year in the open hearth furnaces. In the first week of August, the Iron Trade Review composite of fourteen leading iron and steel products ap parently touched the bottom of the summer dip, at $34.93, and rose to $35.10 by the last week. The August average was $34.96, compared with $34.91 for July, and $36.25 for August, 1927. 8 increase in orders by customers, both for present and near future delivery, but the general feeling is that this increase is largely seasonal. Rubber and Tires Coal Coal stocks in the hands of industrial consumers in the United States and Canada continued to decline during August and now stand at slightly less than 40 million tons, or about a 36 days’ supply. There seems to be no particular incentive to build up these stockpiles to any extent, inasmuch as the present productive capacity could amply take care of increased demand due to improving business and the approach of winter. In most parts of the country car shortage is a thing of the past, due to the present efficient operation of the railroads. The total United States production of soft coal during: the month of August was 41,108,000 tons, as against 36,276,000 tons in July, and 41,705,000 tons in August, 1927. The average daily rate in August was 1,523,000 tons, which was 72,000 tons higher than for the previous month, an increase of 5 per cent. The average price of bituminous coal, f.o.b. mines, ad vanced from $1.68 per ton on July 27 to $1.90 on August 8 and remained at that figure for the remaining part of the month. General conditions in the industry in the Fourth Dis trict seem to be a shade better than they were last month and a year ago, and the outlook for the last quarter of 1928 is slightly encouraging. Reports coming from dealers and operators in various parts of this District are agreed that there has been an Reports indicate that operations in Fourth District tire factories in Au gust were about the same as in July. The seasonal shrinkage which usually develops in the industry at this time of year does not appear to be as noticeable as it was a year ago. Manu facturers report a larger volume in the number of tires produced as compared with 1927, but due to the fact that selling prices are lower, the dollar volume is about the same as last year. The automobile industry shows ex ceptionally large production for this time o f year, and the demand for tires as original equipment has conse quently been very heavy. Orders for sundries, rubber boots and shoes are increas ing, as is the custom in the fall of the year. Total shipments of tires during July, the latest figure available, were 5,924,156 casings, an increase of almost 600,000 from the previous month, and 1,161,557 from July, 1927. This figure exceeded the actual monthly pro duction, 4,873,716, by 1,050,440 units, resulting in a cor responding decline in stocks in manufacturers’ hands. There has been little change in crude rubber prices lately, first latex (spot) being quoted at 19.4 cents a pound in New York on September 18, about the same as a month ago. It is interesting to note that on September 20, 1927, crude rubber was quoted at 33% cents a pound. The drop is due principally to the decision of the British Government to abandon the Stevenson Restriction Act. Automobiles The August production of passenger ears and trucks in the United States— 458,429—was the largest for any month in history, exceeding last year’s figure by 45 per cent. The second highest month on record was April, 1926, when 441,000 cars and trucks were produced. For the first eight months of 1928, production totaled 3,051,220, or slightly more than 400,000 in excess of the same period in 1927. The present year’s output to date, how ever, is still about 94,000 short of that of the first eight months of 1926, the record year so far. Registrations of new cars in the Fourth District are keeping pace with the heavy output. In August, registra tions in 61 Ohio counties representing over 80 per cent of the state’s population, increased 37 per cent over Au gust of 1927, according to the Ohio State University Bu reau of Business Research. In the seven most heavily 4 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW populated counties, registrations as compared with 1927 were 43 per cent greater for the month and 15 per cent greater for the first eight months. Clothing The clothing business was quiet in Au gust, as in July. Greater activity has appeared in September in preparation for the winter season, and although the present increase in orders is largely seasonal, there appears to be some gain not accounted for by seasonal factors. Because of this, manufacturers are inclined to be more confident of the winter trade than they were a month ago. The knit goods branch of the industry is experiencing a heavy increase in orders for quick shipment, as is nor mal at this season. Business in women’s outerwear is about the same as last year; advance orders are in fairly good volume and substantial repeat orders are being re ceived. Improvement is reported in the men’s wear trade after a dull summer. But little change has occurred re cently in woolens and worsteds. August sales of reporting wholesale dry goods houses in the Fourth District were 9.6 per cent less than a year ago, but increased 44.1 per cent over July. The first eight months registered a gain in sales of 1.3 per cent over 1927. August retail clothing sales were only fair as compared to last year. In 31 department stores in the Fourth Dis trict, gains were shown by misses’ ready-to-wear, 10.5 per cent; juniors’ and girls’ wear, 14.7; aprons and house dresses, 33.3; hosiery, 4.5; knit underwear, 4.6; and silk and muslin underwear, 9.8 per cent. On the other hand, decreases took place in all the men’s wear departments, and several others of importance, such as women’s coats, women’s dresses, sports' wear, and furs. Shoes The shoe manufacturing industry in this District is in good condition. Au gust production in 32 large factories exceeded that of July by more than the usual seasonal gain, and in addition was larger than in any other month during the past five years except August, 1927, and Feb ruary, 1928. Cincinnati manufacturers report business as being ahead of a year ago, with the outlook for this Fall quite promising on the basis of orders being received. The situation in the retail end of the business is also encouraging. August sales of women’s shoes in 31 de partment stores in the Fourth District were 5.5 per cent larger than a year ago, and children’s shoes also gained 3.6 per cent. These increases are particularly notable in view of the decreases shown by the great majority of individual departments. Men’s and boys' shoes showed a small decline of 1.4 per cent. Returns from wholesalers are less satisfactory, August sales of reporting units exhibiting a loss of 14 per cent from the same month in 1927. Other Manufacturing The majority of manufacturing lines in this District are doing from 5 to 25 per cent more business now than a year ago. Some others report conditions about the same as last year, while almost no cases are evident of de clines from 1927. In most instances, furthermore, condi tions improved during August and the first half of Sep tember as compared with July. There appears to be very little disposition on the part of customers to increase their forward buying, in spite of the rise in the general price level during the past few months. Orders, although heavier, continue to be very largely for quick delivery. It may be said, however, that what little change has taken place is in the direction of more advanced purchasing rather than toward an even more restricted buying policy. The tendency until re cently has been in the latter direction. Agricultural Implements. Conditions in this line are very satisfactory. Electrical Supplies. Business is somewhat better than a year ago. Machinery, Machine Tools. Sales of engineering special ties are well in excess of a year ago. Steady improve ment is reported by makers of woodworking machinery. Sales of twist drills are well above the normal at this season; collections are better, and prices remain firm. Demand for various types of machine tools is good. Metal Containers. Demand is increasing and 1928 to date shows a gain in business of about 10 per cent over last year. An even better record was made by August, in comparison with both August, 1927, and July, 1928. Motor Accessory. Manufacturers remain extremely busy. Numerous factories are operating large night forces in an endeavor to keep up with incoming orders. The tendency to replace castings with forgings has aided the drop forging industry. Paint, Salesmen now on the road are said to be ob taining larger orders than heretofore. Most of the larger paint and varnish concerns in the Cleveland area have done better in 1928 than in 1927 and are enjoying good business at present, especially in lines catering to the motor trade. Pig lead prices have lately advanced $4.00 per ton. Paper. Conditions in the paper trade leave something to be desired; profits are smaller despite heavier business, and recently orders have exhibited a declining tendency greater than seasonal. Stoves. The usual seasonal increase in inquiries for stoves and ranges is now taking place. AGRICULTURE As harvesting progresses, several of the principal crops of the country give evidence of larger production than was expected earlier in the season, the composite of the prospective yields of all crops in the country on Septem ber 1 being 3.3 per cent higher than their ten-year av erage on that date. It will be remembered that most spring planting was late and that grass and winter wheat started the season in poor shape, but crop growth was generally aided by the rains of June and July. In the Fourth District, crop prospects on September 1 were, for the most part, slightly lower than a month earlier, due to hot, dry weather in August. The late summer was favorable for haying and threshing in most localities, but fall plowing has been retarded in many places, the ground being too hard to work. The following table gives the estimated yield of the principal crops in the Fourth District, based on the con THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW dition of the crops on September 1, compared with the actual yield in 1927 and also compared with the United States. Com (bu.) ...... Wheat (bu.) .... Oats (bu.) ...... Hay (tons) ...... Tobacco (lbs.) .. Potatoes (bu.) .. United States Fourth District (000 omitted) Yield Estimate Estimate Yield Sept. 1, 1927 Sept. 1, 1927 1928 1928 150,323 2,930,586 2,773,708 872,595 901,072 33,931 78,362 1,453,829 1,184,146 123,794 7,652 87,859 80,647 1,371,782 1,195,880 466,815 406,964 21,501 will begin in the majority of vineyards about October 1. The Bureau of Labor’s index of agricultural prices in August stood at 107.0, a slight decline from the July figure of 107.1. Tobacco The warm, dry weather o f the past few weeks has been exceptionally favorable for the Kentucky burley tobacco crop. As a result, the condition of the crop, which was rather poor a month ago, has undergone a marked improvement both as to quality and quantity. The Department of Agriculture’s September 1 forecast indicated a 1928 yield of 312,602,000 pounds (all types) for Kentucky, as com pared with an estimate of 288,249,000 a month earlier. This shows the improvement in quantity that has taken place, and in addition, reports from Lexington state that the quality of the crop as a whole has improved very materially. The crop is now figured to be 55 per cent larger than last year’s low production, but 25 per cent less than the 5-year average, 1922-1926. The Department of Agriculture’s estimate of the total 1928 production of the various types of tobacco grown wholly or partly in Kentucky is as follows (in pounds): Com in practically all parts of the District is poorer than a month ago. In Ohio the heaviest declines occurred in the northwest and southwest portions of the State. In Pennsylvania the crop is quite varied. In some sections many fields have been abandoned, while in others the crop has never been better. The September 1 condition was 81 per cent of normal, compared with 84 on August 1, 05 on September 1, 1927, and 84.3, the ten-year av Type 1928 1927 erage* Burley ..................... 272,698,000 180,659,000 Oats prospects declined about 7 per cent in Ohio, 5 per Green Biver ............ 23,240,000 18,110,000 cent in Pennsylvania, and 1 per cent in West Virginia Henderson .............. 5,250,000 4,200,000 daring August. Early threshing returns show oats to One-sucker .............. 21,230,000 13,056,000 be lighter in yield than was expected earlier in the season. HopkinsvilleThe September forecast for Ohio, in spite of the decline 82,000,000 63,000,000 Clarksville .......... in condition, is for a crop of 92,378,000 bushels, a pro Paducah ................. 28,000,000 18,000,000 duction only exceeded once in the past sixty years. This large crop is a result of the failure of much of the winter For the United States, the latest estimate indicates a wheat, which made it necessary for farmers to replant 1928 crop (all types) of 1,371,782,000 pounds, as com the ground to some Spring crop. pared with 1,211,301,000 in 1927, and a five-year average The condition of potatoes in the District is much above (1922-1926) of 1,337,561,000 pounds. the average of the past ten years, but is not uniformly Total stocks of leaf tobacco held by manufacturers and good. Blight, rot, weeds and drought have affected the dealers on July 1 were 1,734,378,240 pounds, according to crop adversely in different localities. The large increase the Department of Agriculture, as against 1,841,078,123 in estimated production is again explained by the in a year earlier and 1,998,144,550 on April 1, 1928. Ex creased acreage. ports for the first seven months of 1928 amounted to Pastures in most parts of the District are good, though 170,153,254 pounds, an increase of 25,000,000 over the the condition on September 1 was lower than a month same period in 1927. earlier. Hay production in Ohio was estimated on September 1 at 3,288,000 tons, as compared with 5,149,000 BUILDING tons harvested in 1927. Fruit crops in Ohio show little change from August 1. Building operations in the Fourth District made an un In Pennsylvania, apples and grapes have changed slightly favorable showing in August, doubtless reflecting the in condition during the last month but peach prospects higher cost of borrowing for construction purposes. Both have declined 88,000 bushels since August 1. In spite of contracts awarded and building permits were less than a this falling-off, the September 1 forecast is still 8 per year ago. In the case of the former, both residential and cent above the average production for the past five years total contracts were the smallest for any August since and 75 per cent in excess of the 1927 harvest. Apples 1924, the declines from last year being 37 and 20 per continue to drop and the quality of the crop as a whole cent respectively. In dollars, total contracts awarded in is inferior. Scab is still bad, and reports of apples burst August amounted to $50,408,000, of which $14,353,000 ing are numerous. were for residential purposes. For the first eight months The grape crop, both in Ohio and Pennsylvania, is esti of 1928, total contracts awarded were $441,178,000, a loss mated to be much larger than the harvest of 1927, the of 8.9 per cent from last year, and residential contracts increase being 43 and 40 per cent respectively. In the were $156,187,000, a decrease of 5 per cent. Erie belt the crop is in good shape. Weather conditions August building permits in 27 leading cities in this have been favorable, the temperature being above normal District totaled $23,697,614, a loss of 13.8 per cent from and moisture adequate. Disease and insect damage ap a year ago and also a loss from 1926. For the first pear to be light and vines are growing well, clusters are eight months, however, the total of $179,867,675 showed a large, and the fruit is firm and of good size. Harvest gain of 2.7 per cent over the same period o f 1927. For 6 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW August, permits were larger than last year in only seven of the 27 reporting cities, the greatest gains taking place in Ashtabula, Cleveland, Newark, and Hamilton* In the first three, the gains were more than 100 per cent. To offset these, decreases of more than 40 per cent occurred in Akron, Canton, five of Cleveland’s suburbs, Columbus, Dayton, Erie, Lima, Pittsburgh, and Springfield, and sev eral other cities reported declines nearly as large. For the first eight months, nine cities reported gains, of which the largest were in Newark, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Lakewood, and Euclid. Lumber concerns state that August was a dull month, but September has brought a slight betterment in some instances. Most dealers are doing a somewhat smaller volume of business than they were a year ago, which is only natural in view of the falling-off in building pre viously noted. The Aberthaw index of industrial building costs remains unchanged for September at 191. Building Operations (Valuation of Permits) August, 1928 1,292.060 36,515 59,582 219,930 4.194,705 6,825,300 Akrou............ Ashtabula.... Barberton. . . Canton.......... Cincinnati.. . Cleveland.... Cieve. suburbs Cl eve. Hts... 174,425 Kast Cleve.. 29.606 F.uctid.......... 76,095 Garfield Hts. 122,300 1.a Icewood... 51,601 195.273 Parma.......... Rocky River 146.650 Shaker Hts.. 827,225 Columbus.... 1,129.700 Covington, Ky. 154,000 Dayton......... 693,198 347.650 Krie^Pa........ Hamilton. . . . 459.628 l.exington. K.y. 256.2S5 19,175 Lima.............. 386,700 Newark......... 3.166,673 Pittsburgh, Pa. 92,820 Springfield... 1,902.903 % !edo........... Wheeling, W. Va. 277.080 560.535 Youngstown.. Total.......... 2J.697.6I4 change from -3d! 6 + 3 9 .8 — 33.9 3,315,585 632,350 1,709,956 1,228,550 4,281,597 1,932,439 866,063 5,720,765 12,770,400 1,227,500 8,720,226 2,639,737 1,523,761 1,178,976 318,229 941,480 30,215,414 952,215 13,041.640 1,360,600 6,298,458 3,792,237 1,012,885 1.357.829 2,073,000 2,591,044 2,628,626 1,012,273 6,675,860 16,830,400 1,299,900 8,664,681 3,693,184 1,534,306 1,662,499 574.586 329,488 26,428,863 1,421,085 12,845.302 2,101,775 6.433.830 — 28.5 — 0.7 — 29.1 —44.6 + 185.7 + 14 .3 — 33.0 + 1.5 — 35.3 — 2 .1 — 1J.8 179.867.67S 175.187.369 + 2.7 — 3.7 — 43.2 + 1 5 .6 +11 9 .4 . 1.9 — 84.7 — 70.7 — 48.1 — 75.2 — 31.9 +10.1 — 37.3 — 46.8 — 11.4 — 52.4 — 46.8 + 5 8 .6 — 32.1 — 76.9 + 258.9 Sales o f 62 department stores in the Fourth District in August were 7.9 per cent less than a year ago. Sales were unusually large in August of last year, however, owing to early Fall buying brought on by unseasonably cool weather in the late summer. The volume of sales for the past month exceeded that for August of 1924 and 1925, and was about the same as in August o f 1926. For the first eight months of 1928, the District showed a loss of 1.5 per cent in sales from last year. Akron and Toledo registered the largest gains, while Pittsburgh showed the largest decrease. Most o f the individual departments suffered losses in sales as compared with August, 1927. Decreases in some o f the principal departments were as follows: silks and velvets, 17.6 per cent; women's coats, 10.3; dresses, 4.9; furs, 25.5; men’s clothing, 11.7; boys9 wear, 1.5; women’s and children’s shoes, 1.0; furniture, 21.0; floor coverings, 10.0; draperies, lamps, shades, 12.3; house furnishings, 2.8 per cent. from 1927 — 19.8 — 24.4 Jan.-Aug. 1927 15,007,051 414.585 822,359 2,690,118 21,274,153 30,015,450 +111.1 Retail Tirade u% change Jan.*Aug. 1928 12,035,957 313,426 634,698 2,801,373 24,237,005 38,969,275 1927 — 43.3 TRADE —22.8 f 41 + 1 3 .9 + 2 9 .8 — 12.6 — 37.6 + 2 5 .9 — 40.7 + 6 5 .2 — 26.5 — 14.4 — 14.3 — 24.1 — 5.6 + 0.6 8UILDNG C O N TR A C TS -4 TH DISTRICT Wholesale Trade Sales o f reporting grocery and drug firms in the Fourth District in August were in larger volume than a year ago, while those of dry goods, hardware, and shoes were sub stantially less. For the first eight months o f 1928, grocery sales exceeded the same period in 1927 by 2.2 per cent, dry goods by 1.3 per cent, and drugs by 0.8 per cent. Hardware and shoes decreased 6.1 and 10.0 per cent respectively. Grocery stocks on August 31 were 1.2 per cent greater than a year previously, but stocks o f dry goods and shoes were 6.3 and 7.8 per cent less respectively. Accounts receivable on August 31 showed an increase of 4 per cent over the preceding year for groceries, 10.5 per cent for drugs, and 4.7 per cent for hardware. In dry goods, receivables fell off 8.1 per cent, and In shoes 9.2 per cent. Grocery collections in August were 9.5 per cent larger than a year ago; shoes 2 £; and drugs, 0.4 per cent. Dry goods collections were 8.2 per cent less, and hardware, 9 per cent lower. The percentage of August collections to accounts re ceivable on July 31 was 85.3 for groceries, 40.4 for dry goods, 35.7 for hardware, 34.7 for shoes, and 81.8 for drugs. I RSSlOdNYlAC lOL- - 1025 1926 1927 1928 5029 The stock turnover rate for groceries in July was .72, or 8.64 times a year, and for dry goods was .37, or 4.44 times a year. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 7 Fourth District Business Statistics (All figures are lor Fourth District unless otherwise specified) Bank Debits <24 cities) s*vinfS Deposits (end of month) Ohio (41 banks) WesternPennayIvania (26 banks) Total (67 banks) Commercial Failures Number _ **, _ ." — Liabilities Postal Receipts — 9 cities Sale# — Life Insurance — Ohio and Pa. “ — DfP1: Stores — (62 firms) z ~~ Apparel (IS firms) — Furniture (49 firms) ** — Wholesale Grocery (44 firms) Millions of dollars Thousands of dollars Actual Number Thousands of dollars „ — Hardware (16 firms) 7~ D 0 4 firms) Building Permits, Valuation— 27 cities Building Contracts — Total, 4th District ^ — Residential, 4th District Production — Pig Iron, U. S. “ — Steel Ingots, U. S. — Automobiles, U. S. Passenger Cars Actual Number •• •« Truck* —- Bituminous Coal, 4th Dist. Thousands of tons “ Cement: Ohio, W. Va., Wn. Pa. 44 " barrels — Electric Power: Ohio, Pa., K>\ Millions of k.w. hrs. — Petroleum: Ohio, Pa., K>\ Thousands of barrels — Shoes, 4th District 44 pairs M — Tires, U. S. 44 44 casings Bituminous Coal Shipments (from Lake Erie port*) 44 44 tons Iron Ore Receipts (at Lake Erie ports) 1 8 months average. Aug. 1928 1927 3,064 3,005 757,132 276,834 1,033,966 156 4,231 2,865 95,844 21,246 1.390 1,203 7,012 2,553 1,870 1,887 23,698 50,408 14,353 3,136 4,178 699,403 259,410 958,812 173 4,276 2.876 93,102 23,071 1,640 1,177 6,696 2,823 1,983 1,809 27,487 62,447 19,576 2,947 3,471 400,689 57,740 16,118 2,038 1,031* 2,096- + 2.6 8.3 6.7 7.8 9.8 — 1.1 — 0 .4 + 2.9 — 8.6 — 17.1 + 2.3 + 4.7 — 9 .6 — 5.7 + 4.3 — 13.8 — 19.3 — 26.7 + 6.4 + 20 .4 1,010s 2,012* 4 4.9202 5,666 6.390 3,864s 4,166 6,451 Jan.-Aug. 1927 26,198 + f + — 274,381 34,445 15.876 1,967 « Jan.-Aug. 1928 change 744,826* 279,547* 1,024,373* I,344 38,916 24,228 847,067 184,410 11,681 8,476 51,085 17,058 15,277 14,561 179,868 441,178 156,187 24,729 32,783 + 4 6 .0 + 6 7 .6 + 1.5 + 3.5 + 2.1 + 0.7 690,356* 255,442* 945,798* I,351 35,638 24,125 808,946 187,256 12,157 8,545 49,975 16,835 16,273 14,447 175,187 484,394 163,956 25,318 30,268 2,704,514 346,706 118.628 II,291 7,626* 14,091s* + 4.2 — 8.7 + 27 .3 + 3 6 .0 — 0.9 change 26,011 + + + — + + + — — — + 1.3 — 6.1 + — — — + 2.7 8.9 4.7 2.3 8.3 + 0.8 4 4 1.0 8.0 + 2.2 2,313,869 332,416 135,531 II.216 7,628* 13,805* 33,904* 20,824 21,515 7.9 9.4 8.3 0.5 9.2 0.4 4.7 1.5 +16 .9 + 4.3 — 12.5 + 0.7 — 0.03 + 2.1 — 7.9 30,544* 23,182 24,300 +11.0 10.2 — 11.5 — * I®** * January*July 4 Figures Conf ifidential Index Numbers of Trade in the Fourth Federal Reserve District Aug. 1924 Retail and Wholesale Trade (1928 compared with 1927) Percentage Increase or Decreas< SALES SALES STOCKS Aug.Aug.First Aug.« Aug.8 mos. DEPARTMENT STORES (62) Akron.............................................. Cleveland.. Columbus.. Dayton.. . . Pittsburgh. Wheeling.. . . Youngstown. Other Cities. District........ WEARING APPAREL (13; Cincinnati................................ Other Cities............................. District..................................... FURNITURE (48) Cincinnati................................. Cleveland................................. Columbus................................. Dayton..................................... Toledo..................................... . District............................................... CHAIN STORE* Drugs-^-District (3)......................... Groceries— District (4)..................... WHOLESALE GROCERIES (44; Akron.................................................. Cincinnati......................................... Cleveland...................................... Erie................................. ................... Toledo........................... Other Cities.................. District..................... wholIIalI : •Salea per individual unit operated. -r 2.3 — 10.7 — 7.9 — 3.0 — 1.0 — 13.1 + 1.2 — 2.0 — 6.8 — 4.3 — 8.6 + — + + + — + — — — — 8.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 6.3 5.3 2.8 1.6 5.0 1.5 + 23.9 + 2.3 — 0.3 + 4,6 + 3.9 — 9.7 — 3.0 — 11.4 — 3.3 — 5.6 — 2.6 — 17.1 — 14.9 — 15.3 — 1.0 — 5.6 — 3.9 — 9.0 — 3.6 — 4.8 + 0.9 — 5.2 + 3.6 +13.1 + 2.9 + 2.5 + 2 0 — 2.1 — 2.4 — 2.5 + 3.7 + 3.6 — 10.0 — 0.8 — 0.5 + 7.9 — 6.0 + 5.1 — 5.9 + 0.02 + 9.1 — 1.2 + 7.9 + 7.1 + 2.7 + t 7 — 9.6 + 4.3 — 5.7 — 13.9 + 6.4 + 3.4 + 2.4 — 6.0 + 8.2 + 0.6 + 1.0 + 2.2 + 13 + 0.8 — 6.1 — 10.0 + i.i — 6.3 — 7.8 87 Department Stores (50)*............... 95 Wholesale Drugs (14)**................ Wholesale Dry Goods (13)**........ 100 97 Wholesale Groceries (44)**............ Wholesale Hardware (16)**.......... 95 96 Wholesale All (92)***.................... 103 Chain Drugs (3)*t......................... ♦Base—Average monthly sales, 1919-1923. **Base a* Average monthly sales, 1923-1925. 1 Includes 4 shoe firms. TPcr individual unit operated. A up. 1925 90 101 97 98 90 9<> 10o Auy. 192b 93 103 92 95 95 96 io<; .• w . 1927 101 107 104 95 93 99 97 Aus. 1928 93 111 94 100 87 97 96 Debits to Individual Accounts (In thousands of dollars) Akron................ Butler, Pa........ Canton.............. Cincinnati......... Cleveland......... Columbus.......... Connellsville, Pa. Dayton............. Erie, Pa........... Greensburg, Pa. Homestead, Pa. Lexington, Ky.. Lima.................. Lorain............... Middletown.. . . Oil City, Pa___ Pittsburgh, Pa.. Springfield........ Steubenville___ Toledo.............. Warren............. Wheeling, W. Va. Youngstown.... Zanesville......... Total............. 5 weeks ending Sept. 19, 1928 117,805 13,410 57,233 437,205 898,837 178,788 4,742 107,950 44,070 21,495 4,944 22,848 19,757 8,416 14,268 21,584 1,070,629 25,686 14,879 296,845 15,957 57,337 80,978 15.298 3,550,961 change from 1927 + 5.4 + 3.9 + 4.8 — 1.5 + 7.7 — 0.8 —II. I + 6.0 + 5.2 — 10.4 — 5.6 — 9.0 +18 .5 — 0.9 — 2. 1 + 26 .4 + 7.9 — 7.6 + 1 0 .9 +14 .8 + 3.7 + 19 .2 + 5.4 + 6.8 + 6.1 1928 to date (Dec. 28-Sept. 19) 974,841 100.164 446,184 3,991,973 7,410,460 1.507,817 37,707 873,022 328,108 186,106 38,635 221.344 140,543 57,153 115,763 152,998 8,826.328 203,873 106,138 2,446,593 122,691 443,505 648,348 117,549 29,497,843 1927 to date (Dec. 29-Sept. 21) 896,647 104,604 436,535 change from 1927 + 8.7 — 4.2 + 2.2 3.665,549 7,240,849 1,501,355 46,358 859,258 326,494 201.531 40,417 224,571 133,491 56,487 101,873 138,570 9,417,387 218,457 102,323 2,101,614 126,051 418,898 650,183 115,302 + 8.9 + 2.3 + 0.4 — 18.7 29,124,804 + f .j + 1.6 + — — — + 0.5 7.7 4.4 1.4 5.3 + 1.2 + 1 3 .6 + 10 .4 — 6.3 — 6.7 + 3.7 +1 6 .4 — 2.7 + 5.9 — 0.3 + 1.9 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 8 Summary of National Business Conditions By the Federal Reserve Board Volume of industrial and trade activity increased in August, and there was a further advance in wholesale commodity prices. Reserve bank credit outstanding increased in September, reflecting in part seasonal demands for currency and credit. Money rates remained firm. PRODUCTION Index numbers of production of manufactures and minerals, adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 — 100). Latest figures, August, manufactures— 114; minerals— 105. Production of both manufactures and minerals increased considerably in August, the output of manufacturing plants being larger than at this season of any earlier year. Automobile production was in record volume in August, and available information indicates that output was maintained by many producers at a high level during September. Iron and steel produc tion continued large in August and September, and output of nonferrous metals increased between July and August. Textile mill activity, which had been somewhat reduced in recent months, also showed a substantial in crease. Factory employment and payrolls have increased since midsummer and in August were close to the levels of a year ago. In the building in dustry, there was evidence of recession in a sharp decline after the early summer in contracts awarded, which were in smaller volume during August than in the corresponding month of any year since 1924. In the first three weeks of September, however, awards were somewhat larger than last year. Estimates of the Department of Agriculture for September 1 indicate that yields of principal crops will be larger than last year and above the average for the preceding five years. TRADE Index of U. S. Bureau o f Labor Statistics <1926 = 100). Latest figures, August, farm products— 107.0; non-agricultural, 96.7. Distribution of commodities showed seasonal increases in August, al though sales in most lines of wholesale and retail trade did not equal the unusually large sales of August, 1927. Department store stocks increased as is usual in August, but continued smaller than a year ago, while inven tories in several lines of wholesale trade were somewhat larger than last year. Freight car loadings were in about the same volume in August as a year earlier. Shipments of miscellaneous commodities and grains were larger, and those of coal, livestock, and forest products smaller than last year. PRICES Monthly averages of daily figures for 12 Fed eral Reserve banks. Latest figures are aver ages for first 22 days in August PERCENT ------- 1200 The general level of commodity prices increased in August, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics index at 98.9 per cent of the 1926 average, was the highest in nearly two years. Increases in August were chiefly in the prices of livestock and livestock products, which are now higher than at any time since 1920. There were also small increases in fuels, metals, and building materials. Grains and cotton showed sharp declines, and there were decreases also in hides, skins and wool. Since the 1st of September, there have been some declines in livestock and meats, and a sharp further decrease in cotton, while prices of pig iron, copper, and petroleum have advanced. BANK CREDIT f j m b u i ld i n g c o n t r a c t s a w a r d e d m m — 1024 - Wi/fy Season?//U jvstm m t Without Adjusf/seat 1325 1926 1927 1928 Federal Reserve Board’s indexes o f value of building contracts awarded as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation (1923-1925 average — 100.) Latest figures, August, adjusted index — 111; unadjusted index— 126. Between the middle of August and the middle of September, there was a considerable increase in the loans and investments of member banks in leading cities. Part of the increase was in loans on securities and part reflected a seasonal increase in other loans. Deposits of the member banks also increased during the period. Volume of reserve bank credit outstand ing increased during the four weeks ending September 19 in response to seasonal demands for currency and growth in member bank reserve re quirements. The increase in total bills and securities was largely in hold ings of acceptances and in discounts for member banks. During the same period there were further increases in open market rates on collateral loans and on commercial paper, while rates on bankers' acceptances were reduced from 4% per cent to 4% per cent.
@FedFRASER