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MONTHLY
NOVEMBER 1949
CONTENTS
Trade Goals for the Christmas Season
1
Some Implications of a Good Harvest
.
6
National Business Conditions
.
.
.
9
District Statistical Tables
Keview
.
.
.
.
.
10-11
FINANCE • INDUSTRY • AGRICULTURE • TRADE
F O UR T H
Vol. 31— No. 11
F E DE R A L
RESERVE
D I S TR I CT
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Cleveland 1, Ohio
Trade Goals for the Christmas Season
volume of Fourth District
store sales will rise
next in re
T HEtodollartraditional this month and department
sponse
the
stimulus of Christmas buy
ing. There is little chance, however, that the dollar
volume of Christmas trade will equal last year’s
large total. This does not mean that the prospects
are necessarily poor. Rather it means that some
measure other than the sales volume of last Christ
mas may appropriately be used as an additional
test. Seasonally adjusted sales indexes provide the
means for such a test. Besides the regular index of
monthly sales, a newly constructed index of weekly
sales of Fourth District department stores may also
be utilized. The latter is the same weekly index
which, in a preliminary form, was used in an analysis
of the seasonal influence of Easter buying, published
in the March 1949 issue of this Review.
Last Year
as a Goal
Last year’s Christmas volume is an
unrealistic goal primarily because de
partment store sales this year have
settled to lower levels of dollar volume. The yearto-year percentage changes, published by the Fed
eral Reserve System in accordance with traditional
and widely understood methods of presenting the
current sales picture, have been predominantly
“ minus” figures this year, with the big questions
centering about the size of the drop from last year.
Moreover, last year’s Christmas is hardly a reasonable
goal as a consequence of the effects of this fall’s
industrial disputes which have dealt a temporary
blow to factory payrolls, particularly in this District.
Furthermore, at the outset of any consideration
of trade goals it is necessary to note an important
distinction between the way in which the manage
ment of a particular department store may look at
the record and the way in which the observer of
general business trends is forced to view the sales
trend. Thus, for example, a store manager is justi
fiably pleased to find that for a given week or month,
his sales are, say, only 9 percent below last year’s,
while the average sales in his city or in the Fourth
District are down 12 percent. From the general
public standpoint however, the crucial question is
whether the average 12 percent drop in the assumed
instance is to be interpreted as unduly large, or as
a year-to-year decline which is no more than should
be expected under this year’s circumstances.
September Level
as a Test
Consider the sales level of September 1949 as a starting point
for judging performance during
the coming Christmas season. In September, Fourth
District department store sales, like those throughout
the nation, showed substantial gains over August,
allowing for usual seasonal changes. In this District
the September pickup from a very poor August
average was exceptionally strong. The September
level here, however, was slightly below the average
of the year to date, seasonal factors considered.
The question then becomes: how will the Novem
ber and December sales performance stack up
against the September record after allowing for the
normal rate of rise during the Christmas buying sea
son? If the seasonally adjusted index of sales remains
at least equal to that of September, it would prob
ably be sound judgment to consider the Christmas
trade season as successful, even though the level
would be below last year’s. If, however, the adjusted
level of Christmas sales should fall below the Sep
tember performance, a poor season would be indi
cated.
Computed on a monthly basis, the use of Septem
ber as a test would call for an adjusted index of
Page 2
INDEX OF WEEKLY SALES
Fourth District Department Stores, August, 1948—January, 1949, and August to date, 1949
Unadjusted for Seasonal Variation
(1 93 5-39 =1 00)
(1 9 3 5 -3 9 = 1 0 0 )
....... 6005
.................~
600%
500
.......................
/
/
/
/
400
'
«
i
i
t
t
•
i
i
«
i
/
✓
9
'
f
/
„
(
300
1
1
1
1
1948,
______ _________
500
\
l/
/
400
300
i
i* 1
1949-^
200
200
100
00
0
i
6
i
13
i
i
20 27
AUG.
i
3
i
10
i
i
17 24
SEP.
1
1
8
1
I
1 __ 1
___ 1
___ 1 — J..
15 22 29
12 19 26
O CT.
NOV.
i
i
10
i
i
17 2 4
D EC.
31
1
1
114 21 28
1
7
0
JA N .
. . . weekly sales by Fourth District department stores, unadjusted for seasonal variation, showed
a sharp rise during the latter part o f November and early December last year; a slight decline in
the week just prior to Christmas was follow ed by a sharp post-Christmas drop; so far this year the
unadjusted index has been trailing last year by a fairly consistent margin.
TYPICAL PATTERN OF WEEKLY SALES IN THE CHRISTMAS SEASON
Based on 1939-48 Experience o f Fourth District Department Stores
(For weeks ending on each calendar day o f November and December)
AVG. W E E K L Y S A L E S
F O R Y E A R s s lO O * ^
AVG. W E E K L Y S A L E S
FnR Y FA R « m n 9 i
. . . the typical pattern o f weekly sales during November and December shows a moderate but per
sistent rise during November; from about the second week o f December up to Christmas a very high
level is maintained; the drop following Christmas is sharp.
November 1, 1949
Monthly Business Review
Page 3
INDEX OF WEEKLY SALES
Fourth
District Department Stores, August, 1948—January, 1949, and August to date, 1949
Adjusted for Seasonal Variation
C I9 3 5 -3 9 = 100)
(1935- 39 - I 0 0 )
. . . weekly sales after adjustment for the usual seasonal variations showed a fairly steady course
last year, except for a hot-weather dip in late August and a slump in late October and early Novem
ber; this year’s adjusted index so far has been trailing last year’s; an extension o f the September level
is shown as a benchmark for this year’s Christmas season.
Fourth District sales for November and December
at 279 percent of sales during the base period
(average of 1935 through 1949). If this level is
maintained during each of the two months, it would
mean November sales at 5 percent below last year’s
November, and December sales at 7 percent below
December of last year.
It will be recalled that during last November sales
hit a slump, while the December recovery was suf
ficient to finish the Christmas season with a total
which was considered moderately satisfactory. Sales
during November and December last year, however,
were relatively less satisfactory than in September of
that year. This fact helps to explain why year-to-year
drops of 5 percent and 7 percent respectively during
November and December of this year would be tan
tamount to maintaining the September 1949 level of
adjusted sales, which in turn was 12 percent below
year-ago September. The month of October, since
it is not usually considered part of the Christmas
season, is not considered here in detail. On the basis
of the three-weeks data for October which is avail
able at press time, however, it appears that Fourth
District sales during October will fall short of the
adjusted September level.
W eekly The use of September sales as a test for
Sales
the Christmas season can be applied on a
running week-to-week basis, provided the
typical pattern of weekly sales during the Christmas
season is taken into account. If it is known to what
extent sales normally rise between the week ending
December 3 and the week ending December 10, for
example, it is possible to determine whether or not
the actual sales at that time reach a level which is
comparable to the average September level of this
year, after allowing for the seasonal difference. Such
a standard can be met, even though the percentage
change from the corresponding week of 1948 is a
minus percentage. Just how much of a year-to-year
drop can be reconciled with a maintenance of the
September level for a given week during the Christ
mas season is the next problem to be solved. If such
a relationship can be established, it will become
much easier to interpret the percentage change
figures (from a year ago) as they are publicized dur
ing each of the weeks of the Christmas season.
In this connection use can be made of the new
weekly index of sales of Fourth District department
stores, which has been constructed in the form of a
seasonally adjusted weekly index as well as an un
P age 4
Monthly Business Review
November 1, 1949
INDEX OF WEEKLY SALES
Fourth District Department Stores, August-December, 1948 and August, 1949 to Date.
(Including year-to-year changes for October through December equivalent
to maintaining September 1949 level o f adjusted sales).
1948
week
Unadjusted
Index(a)
Adjusted
Index
7
14
21
28
255
264
273
250
311
314
309
263
Aug.
6
13
20
27
216
207
236
243
266
247
269
262
— 15%
— 22%
-1 4 %
- 3%
4
11(b)
18
25
315
320
331
317
301
314
319
297
Sept.
3
10(b)
17
24
288
289
295
276
273
283
281
268
— 9%
-1 0 %
-1 1 %
-1 3 %
Oct.
2
9
16
23
30
327
331
339
340
320
310
308
318
321
306
Oct.
1
8
15
22
29
291
273
269
260
287
252
250
245
-1 1 %
— 18%
-2 1 %
-2 4 %
Nov.
6
13
20
27(b)
299
346
367
415
261
281
294
300
Nov.
5
12
19
26(b)
+
-
Dec.
4
11
18
25(b)
493
569
562
512
316
317
306
299
Dec.
3
10
17
24
— 13%
-1 1 %
— 9%
+19%
244
319
Dec. 31(b)
Aug.
Jan.
1,’49(b)
1949
week
Unadjusted Index
Adjusted
Index
% Change From Year Aeo
Actual(c)
Needed(d)
-1 4 %
- 9%
-1 2 %
-1 3 %
- 9%
4%
2%
4%
6%
-1 2 %
(a) Average daily sales basis; hence makes allowance for differences in number of trading days per week.
(b)
Short w eek: five trading days.
(c) Actual comparison
o f dollar sales; no allowance for differences in trading days.
(d) Needed to maintain September 1949 level o f adjusted sales, as explained in text; percentages are year-to-year changes
in dollar sales (unadjusted for seasonal variation or number of trading days) which would be equivalent to Septem
ber 1949 average level o f sales index adjusted for seasonal variation and number of trading days.
adjusted index.{1) It is based on a special study of
weekly variations in Fourth District sales from 1939
to the present. It will be necessary to describe briefly
what this index reveals before attempting to answer
the question as to the implication of a Septembersales standard for weekly performance during the
Christmas season.
Unadjusted
The first of the three accompanying
Weekly Index charts shows the weekly index, un
adjusted for seasonal variation. It
covers the period from August 1 to the latest week
of this year for which reports are available at the
( l ) T h e adjusted weekly index is now published regularly in the
weekly news release on Fourth District department store sales. It
will be included in the statistical summaries published in this
Review, beginning with an early issue. See also “ Note on New
Weekly Index” at the conclusion o f this article.
time of writing; it also shows the unadjusted index
for the corresponding weeks last year, as well as last
year’s entire Christmas season and the post-Christmas
letdown. The high peak of sales during the weeks
ended December 11 and December 18 last year is
apparent.
Since the entire unadjusted series is based on
average daily sales during the years 1935-39, the
influence of holiday closings is removed from the
chart. Thus, for example, the position of the curve
for the weeks ended December 25, 1948 and Jan
uary 1, 1949 would have been lower if allowance
had not been made for the store closings during
Christmas day and New Year’s Day. (Note also
that the dates on the base line of the chart follow
the 1949 calendar rather than the 1948 calendar.
Thus the weeks ending December 24 and December
31 this year correspond to the weeks ended Decem
ber 25 and January 1 last year.)
November 1, 1949
Monthly Business Review
Typical Weekly The second chart shows the typiPattern
cal pattern of weekly sales during
November and December as re
vealed by a study of the 1939-48 experience in this
District. Computations as shown in this chart pro
vide the link between the unadjusted index shown
in the first chart and the adjusted index shown in
the third chart.(2) It will be noticed that the typical
pattern shows the various sales levels for weeks end
ing on any possible calendar day of November or
December, with each week represented by a straight
line equivalent in length to six days. The selection
of the appropriate volume for any given week de
pends on the calendar of the particular year which
is under consideration. (The dates at the base of
the chart apply to the week endings of the 1949
calendar.)
The chart showing the typical pattern of weekly
sales during the Christmas season indicates the rela
tion of the earlier weeks of the season to the preChristmas climax and the drop after Christmas.
Thus, for example, the rise during November is mod
erate but persistent. From about the second week
in December through Christmas a high plateau is
reached, followed by a sharp drop in the week be
tween Christmas and the New Year.
Adjusted
The third chart in the accompanying
Weekly Index group shows the adjusted index of
weekly sales for last year’s Christmas
season in its entirety, and for this year’s sales from
August to the present. The periods covered are the
same as in the first chart, showing the unadjusted
index. The weakness in sales during the latter part
of October and the first part of November last year,
which was characteristic of department store sales
throughout the country as well as in this District,
is revealed clearly by the curve of the adjusted index.
It may also be seen that the final week of Christmas
trade last year was not as satisfactory as some of
the earlier weeks in December.
"September Test" With the aid of the weekly infor Weekly Sales dexes described above it now
becomes possible to consider
what the maintenance of this year’s September sales
level would mean in terms of weekly sales during
the Christmas season. On the chart showing the
adjusted index for last year and for this year to date,
an extension of the September level has been indi
cated by the dotted line. It can be readily seen that
it will be entirely possible to maintain this year’s
September rate throughout the Christmas season
without reaching last year’s level of adjusted sales
( 2) For example, the “ normal” expectation o f sales for a week end
ing December 18 is 183.6 percent of the average weekly sales o f any
given year. For the actual week ended December 18, 1949, the
unadjusted sales index was 562.
(See table.) Dividing 562 by
183.6, and multiplying by 100, gives 306, which becomes the adjusted
index for the week.
P age 5
at any point except during the first week in Novem
ber when last year’s sales were abnormally low.
Failure to reach the necessary level for any week can,
of course, be offset by performance in excess of
the standard during any other week.
How, then, can a prospective weekly announce
ment of a given rate of decline from last year’s dollar
sales be interpreted in the light of the standard here
discussed? The answer can be seen from the final
column of the accompanying table. If, for example,
it should in the future be announced that for the
week ended December 10, sales of Fourth District
department stores were 8 percent below those of the
corresponding week last year, it can be seen from
the final column of the table that a year-to-year
decline of 11 percent would have corresponded to
maintenance of the adjusted September level, and
hence the sales for the week in question were more
favorable than the standard would call for. Or, to
use an actual example, the September standard for
the week ended October 22 could have been met
by a sales level 13 percent below last year’s, whereas
actually sales were 24 percent below last year, thus
indicating an unfavorable performance for the week
in terms of the test suggested here.
It will be noticed that the final column of the
table shows a target of “ plus 19 percent” (over last
year) for the last week of Christmas trade. This
comparison refers to the total dollar volume of a
six-day week this year as matched against a five-day
trading week last year, since Christmas this year
falls on Sunday. The figure means that the six-day
Christmas week this year should show a 19 percent
increase in sales over last year’s five-day Christmas
week in order to maintain the September level of
sales adjusted for seasonal variation and number of
trading days. Such a computation makes average
daily sales the final basis of comparison, and is in
accordance with standard practice even though it
may be doubted whether six days of trade are always
of proportionately larger volume than that of the
shorter week.
For the post-Christmas week, a five-day week is
involved in both years; this year, because of the
legal holiday on Monday, December 26, and last
year, because of the holiday on Saturday, January 1.
For that week, a sales performance 12 percent below
last year’s would be sufficient to meet the Septem
ber standard.
NOTE ON NEW WEEKLY INDEX
In constructing the adjusted weekly index discussed
above, seasonal adjustment factors for weeks ending on
each calendar day o f the year were computed from
a ten-year series o f the unadjusted weekly index drawn
from Fourth District department store records. The
method used to obtain the adjustment factors was first
described by Leroy M. Piser, Federal Reserve Bank of
New York, in “ A Method o f Calculating Weekly Seasonal
( C O N T IN U E D O N P A S E 8)
Monthly Business Review
P age 6
,
November 1 1949
Some Implications of a Good Harvest
second
several
F OR thehave beensuccessive year excess ofmajor
crops
produced in
the
quantities consumers will buy at prevailing prices,
maintained largely by governmental supports.
To permit prices to drop to levels that would clear
the market would result in operating losses for many
farmers. Holding prices up, as required by law,
entails perplexities of storing the surpluses and of
ultimately disposing of them without wrecking the
price support programs. Escape from this dilemma,
posed on the one hand by statutory supports and on
the other by the necessity for avoiding publiclyfinanced waste, involves a great extension of public
control over farmers. The problem has been latent
for years, but the concurrence of two especially good
crop years and a period of declining demand has
brought it to a crux.
Last year the tonnage of crops harvested was the
largest in history and this year it is the second largest.
A part of the increase over earlier years is attribu
table to propitious weather, but a considerable por
tion also results from improved crop practices. These
include the use of more fertilizers, insecticides, and
weed-killing chemicals; the shift to improved varieties
of crops; and mechanization, which allows farmers
to make better use of brief periods of favorable
weather. These developments have recently acceler
ated in response to the incentive of strong demand
in war and in postwar boom.
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED CROPS
United States, 1948 and 1949*
1938-47 = 100
1 9 3 8 -4 7 = 1 0 0
1 9 3 8 -4 7 -1 0 0
. . . the 1949 harvests o f six important crops ranged
from 7 to 42 percent above average and accentuated the
problem o f agricultural surpluses which emerged in 1948.
Only potatoes fell noticeably below both 1948 and the
ten-year average.
• Indicated October 1.
Wartime
Supports
Continued
The original purpose of the present
form of agricultural price supports was
to induce high-level production of food
and other agricultural staples during
the war. The emergency legislation contained a pro
vision for continuing the wartime supports two years
after the official termination of hostilities. This ex
tension into the postwar period was to prevent a
recurrence of the violent breakdown of farm prices
which followed World War I. According to its pro
visions the emergency price supports would have
ended automatically with the calendar year 1948
for some commodities, and with marketing of the
1948 crops of the “ basic commodities” . Two addi
tional enactments, one in 1948 and one last month,
further extended high-level price supports to the 1950
crops of basic commodities. For 1951 and subse
quent years the prescribed minimums (except for
tobacco) of agricultural price support are lower
in relation to the general price level than heretofore.
The basic commodities — com, wheat, cotton,
tobacco, peanuts and rice— are subject to the most
thorough provisions for permanent price support.
The first four together account for about three-fifths
of the national crop value.
The major difficulty this year was in ade
quately housing the enormous quantities
of grain rolling in from the fields in addition to oldcrop carry-overs, which probably aggregated a size
never attained before. Stocks of all grains carried
over totaled about as big in 1942, but crops that
year were much smaller than in 1949. Trouble
started with the harvesting of last year’s huge crop
of corn. The dropping of grain prices below sup
port levels is attributed mainly to the fact that many
farmers, unable to provide approved storage, could
not avail themselves of price-support loans. The
situation was recognized as critical when it became
apparent that loans actually made would result in
the transfer of unprecedented quantities of grain to
Government ownership.
The problem was met by the erection of new stor
age facilities, conversion of nonstorage structures into
granaries, lending to farmers who would expand
their own space, and offering farmers a fee for hold
ing their 1948 loan com another year. Yet, with
many elevators, cribs and bins full, the storage prob
lem is now in an acute stage.
Storage
Ultimate The next question is: what disposition
Disposal can be made of the vast quantities of
agricultural goods acquired by the Gov
ernment in price-support operations? Legislative
November 1, 1949
Monthly Business Review
restrictions prohibit sale in the ordinary domestic
markets at prices under the support level, but allow
reduced prices on foreign sales and sales for other
than primary uses.
Highly perishable products, of which potatoes pro
vide a current example, pose thorny problems.
Earlier this year the Department of Agriculture re
ported :
The Government has found outlets at ex
tremely low prices for the potatoes acquired in
the price-support program. The 74,531,515 hun
dredweight of 1948-crop potatoes purchased or
diverted through May 2 have been converted or
diverted to the following forms and outlets
outside the usual food-trade channels: 36 percent
to alcohol; 27 to livestock feed; 26 percent to
potato flour and dehydrated potatoes; 5 to
starch; 4 to direct distribution (school lunch and
institutional use); and 2 percent to other uses
or undetermined.
Before the 1948-crop potato operations were com
pleted, $225 million had been spent and only a small
part recovered.
Less difficulty is anticipated in supporting the
price of the 1949 potato crop. The law allows a
reduction of one-third in the price-support level and
the imposition of acreage allotments. Both of these
actions were taken and in consequence the harvested
acreage was 10 percent lower than a year ago. De
partment of Agriculture analysts estimate that ful
filling the statutory requirements for the 1949 crop
will require purchases of only about one-third the
1948 volume.
Acreage
As a practical matter, the price of an
Allotments agricultural commodity can be sup
ported over a period of years only by
restricting the supply of that product. Current prob
lems of “surpluses” are direct outgrowths of at
tempts to control price without controlling supply.
The machinery for controlling the supply of the basic
commodities is in existence, however, under the
provisions of prewar legislation. It was used exten
sively until early in the war and has been in opera
tion for tobacco for a number of years. It consists
of acreage allotments and marketing quotas. The
Secretary of Agriculture will probably find it neces
sary now to apply one or both of these to each of
the eligible crops which have not already received
them.
Acreage allotments constitute the milder of the
two available forms of production control. If a
farmer fails to stay within his allotment he sacrifices
only his eligibility to receive price-support money.
Even that can be a severe penalty— when the freemarket price is far below the support level.
Two crops have acreage allotments without the
additional sanction of marketing quotas and two
others will probably be so controlled within a few
Page 7
months. Potatoes are the only nonbasic commodity
now subject to allotments. The 1950 plantings have
been allotted for wheat also and will probably be
allotted for rice and corn before their respective
deadlines on December 31 and February 1.
Wheat was reaped this year on more acres than
ever before. The Government-underwr
ritten price
probably provided the incentive for most of the 7
percent increase over 1948. Allotments specify a 15
percent reduction for next year, but the effect on
wheat production may be much less than this. Over
plantings and good weather may result in a produc
tion nearly as great as this year’s good crop.
The 1949 corn crop is second in size only to last
year’s record. The combined supply of old and new
corn has never before been above 4 billion bushels,
but this year it reached 4.3 billion. The Secretary of
Agriculture is expected to call for an acreage re
duction of about 12 percent.
Marketing
Quotas
Marketing quotas, when used, are applied in addition to acreage allotments
for the purpose of putting “ teeth” into
the allotments. The quota is, in effect, the estimated
production of the farmer’s allotted acreage, but it
is subject to revision if his yield per acre appears to
be above the anticipated rate. If a farmer under
quota restrictions harvests more acres than his allot
ment, he forfeits not only the right of benefiting
directly from price supports but also some of the
price actually received for his crop, since he is liable
to a stiff fine on his over-quota marketings. Market
ing quotas may be invoked only after approval by
a two-thirds vote of the producers concerned. If
they are rejected by the producers, price supports are
sharply lowered or, in a few cases, withheld alto
gether.
Most types of tobacco have had marketing quotas
in effect for about a decade. Producers of the
flue-cured type voted a three-year extension this
summer. This control on tobacco production has
thus far been effective in preventing such an accumu
lation of stocks as might embarrass the price-support
program. It is made easier by the fact that each
tobacco type is a strictly regional crop, allowing con
trollers to deal with a large proportion of all farms
within fairly small areas. Even so, tobacco control
has its difficulties. A major one is that each acreage
reduction tends to encourage farmers to grow more
than ever on each remaining acre.
Peanut growers approved quotas for three years
beginning with the 1948 crop. Under the stringency
of marketing quotas, planted acreage dropped by a
fifth this year, cutting production to a point slightly
below average.
Production of com, the number one crop in eco
nomic importance, has never been regulated by mar
keting quotas, but a burdensome surplus has evoked
Monthly Business Review
P age 8
serious consideration of this device. Supplies may
not be sufficiently large, however, to warrant its use
for the 1950 crop. Meanwhile, the attempt to
check output may be limited to the anticipated
acreage allotments.
It is questionable that either the acreage allot
ment or the marketing quota technique can be very
successful as a curb on com production. Only about
one-fifth of the annual crop is sold; the remainder
normally is fed to livestock on the same farms that
raise it. Since corn is not primarily a cash crop,
farmers who grow it are not greatly amenable to
control exercised through the cash market. With
holding of price support loans from those who exceed
acreage allotments may not hold acreage down very
much, and a penalty for over-quota marketings may
not restrict production very much. Perhaps supple
mentary control techniques will be developed for
com.
( C O N T IN U E D F R O M
November 1, 1949
Cotton will be subject to severe restraint on pro
duction in 1950, whether or not the planters approve
quotas in the referendum scheduled for December
15. They have the alternatives of accepting a 20
percent acreage reduction enforced by marketing
quotas or of relinquishing high-level price supports.
The importance of the supports and the probable
decision of growers is indicated by the fact that the
1948 cotton loan program left the Government hold
ing one-fourth of the crop, or over seven-tenths of
total carry-over. Both the 1948 and 1949 crops were
about a third larger than the 1938-47 average, and
the unused supply before next year’s harvest is ex
pected to total more than three-quarters of an aver
age crop. It is unlikely that the forthcoming
restrictions will be sufficient to reduce the supply of
cotton to a manageable level by a year from now.
Further reductions will probably be necessary then.
P A G E 5)
Indexes” , Journal of the American Statistical Association,
September, 1932. It includes use o f already established
monthly seasonals, entered against the week which in
cludes the 15th of the month. Partly by interpolation,
trend-cycle values are derived. Deviations from these
values become the basis for a continuous series o f weekly
seasonal factors.
T he Piser method, which was first developed in a field
other than department store statistics, makes no special
allowance for the shifting date of Easter. T o fill in this
gap, which is of great importance for department store
data, a special method of allowing for the Easter influence
on a weekly basis was devised by this Bank. The latter
method is used in preparing the Fourth District weekly
index o f department store sales for the weeks affected
by the date of Easter, but it has no direct bearing on the
analysis of the Christmas season presented in the fore
going article.
In using the weekly index o f Fourth District depart
ment store sales as a supplement to the regular monthly
index, the following caution should be kept in mind. A
direct comparison o f the average o f four weekly indexes
with the nearest corresponding monthly index will not
always produce an identity o f results. This is for two
reasons: first the calendar period covered by the four
weeks will not correspond exactly with the monthly
period. Second, the department stores which report in
the weekly series are fewer than the stores in the monthly
sample. Consequently, some discrepancies between the
two series appear, in spite o f the fact that the monthly
series has been used at certain stages o f the computation
o f seasonal factors for the weekly series. T he degree of
correspondence between the weekly and monthly indexes,
however, is considered to be sufficient to justify use of
the weekly index as a supplement to the regular monthly
index.
November 1, 1949
Page 9
Monthly Business Review
SUMMARY OF NATIONAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS
By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(Released for publication October 28, 1949)
Industrial production and employment increased
somewhat further in September but, as a result of
industrial disputes, were curtailed sharply in Octo
ber. Department store sales were below seasonal
expectations from mid-September to the third week
of October. Wholesale commodity price movements
were mixed, with only a small decline in the average
level. Construction activity continued at high levels.
Stock prices advanced moderately and bond prices
held firm.
Industrial Production
Production o f manufactures advanced further in
September while output o f minerals declined 8 per
cent. T he Board’s seasonally adjusted total index
was 172 per cent of the 1935-39 average as com
pared with 170 in August. T he index is expected
to decline about 20 points in October largely as a
result o f the steel strike.
Activity in durable goods industries rose about
2 per cent in September, reflecting mainly increases
in output o f consumers’ durable goods and of
metal building materials and equipment. Activity
in the machinery industries rose 4 per cent in Sep
tember, after declining steadily over the preceding
8 months with a total reduction o f 22 per cent in
that period. W ith work stoppages at most plants,
steel production was curtailed to 9 per cent of
capacity beginning October 1, compared with 83
per cent in September.
Output of nondurable goods rose about 3 per
cent further in September and was at the highest
rate since February. Most o f the gain represented
continued very large increases at textile and paper
mills, in part reflecting seasonal influences. Cotton
consumption expanded 14 per cent and September
deliveries o f rayon to textile mills advanced to a
new record rate. Paperboard output increased 10
per cent and was also at a new peak rate. Petro
leum refinery activity increased somewhat further.
Output o f most other nondurable goods was main
tained in large volume.
Minerals output has declined sharply since the
middle of September mainly as a result o f work
stoppages at most coal mines. Output o f iron ore
declined more than seasonally in September and in
October has dropped sharply as a result o f the
steel labor dispute. Crude petroleum production,
on the other hand, has advanced in September and
early October.
Construction
Total value o f construction contracts awarded
increased substantially in September reflecting
largely a further sharp expansion in residential con
tracts to a new record rate. Awards for public con
struction declined seasonally, following a marked
drop in August, but the value o f public work done
has been maintained at a high level reflecting the
large volume of awards earlier this year.
Employment
Employment in nonagricultural establishments
increased somewhat more than seasonally from mid
August to mid-September, but subsequently
clined as a result o f work stoppages.
de
Distribution
Department store sales did not show the usual
seasonal increase from the middle o f September to
the third week o f October. Value o f sales during
the second half o f September was 8 per cent smaller
than in the corresponding period a year ago and
during the first three weeks of October sales were
13 per cent below a year ago. Department store
sales had averaged about 6 per cent lower than last
year during the first eight months.
Shipments o f railroad revenue freight in the first
half o f September continued at a level about 20
per cent below the same period a year ago. Since
the middle o f September, however, freight carloadings have dropped sharply, mainly as a result of
curtailed shipments o f coal, iron ore, and steel
products, and in the week ending October 22 were
36 per cent smaller than in the corresponding week
o f 1948.
Commodity Prices
T he general level of wholesale commodity prices
decreased somewhat from mid-September to the
third week o f October. Prices o f hogs and pork
showed marked seasonal declines and reductions also
occurred in some other farm products and foods.
Cattle prices, however, advanced and coffee prices
rose sharply. Imported materials generally were
lower in the third week o f October than in midSeptember before many foreign currencies were de
valued, while prices o f some domestic industrial
products such as cotton goods and tires were higher.
Bank C red it
Business loans at banks in leading cities expanded
in September and the first three weeks of October
in response to a seasonal rise in credit demand.
Loans to consumers and real estate owners and
holdings o f U. S. Government and corporate and
municipal securities also increased.
Treasury deposits at Reserve Banks, which were
large at the end o f September, were drawn down
in the first three weeks of October, supplying banks
with a substantial volume o f reserve funds. Federal
Reserve holdings o f Government securities and
member bank borrowings at Reserve Banks declined
somewhat and member bank excess reserves increased
moderately.
Security Markets
Common stock prices increased somewhat in the
first three weeks o f October to a new high for the
year. Prices o f Government securities and highgrade corporate bonds showed little change. The
volume of new corporate security issues was small
in September and October.
P age 10
Monthly Business Review
November 1, 1949
DEPARTMENT STORE TRADE STATISTICS
Sales by Departments — September 1949
Department Store Inventories — Sept. 30, 1949
Percentage Changes from a Year Ago
(Fourth District Reporting Stores)
(Compiled October 27, and released for publication October 29)
Percentage Changes from a Year Ago
(Fourth District Reporting Stores)
(Compiled October 28, and released for publication October 31)
Coats and Suits (Women’s and Misses’ ) ................................................................. +11
Shoes (Women’s and Children’s ) ............................................................................. + 7
Costume Jewelry........................................................................................................ + 6
Millinery.............. ........................................................................................................ + 5
Juniors’ Coats, Suits and Dresses............................................................................ + 3
China and Glassware................................................................................................. + 2
Shoes (Men’s and B oys’ ) ........................................................................................... + 2
Books and Stationery................................................................................................ —0—
Notions........................................................................................................................ —0—
Corsets and Brassieres...............................................................................................— 1
Girls’ W ear.................................................................................................................. — 1
Woolen Dress G oods.................................................................................................. — 2
Luggage....................................................................................................................... — 3
Toilet Articles and Drug Sundries.......................................................................... — 3
Blouses, Skirts and Sportswear................................................................................— 3
Better Dresses (Women’s and Misses’ ) .................................................................. — 3
Art Needlework.......................................................................................................... — 4
Gift Shop..................................................................................................................... — 5
Silverware and Clocks...............................................................................................— 5
C andy........................................................................................................................... — 5
Men’s Clothing.................. ._....................................................................................... — 5
Silks, Velvets and Synthetics.................................................................................. — 6
Handbags and Small Leather G oods..................................................................... — 8
Fine Jewelry and W atches........................................................................................ — 7
Sporting Goods and Cameras.................................................................................. — 7
B oys’ W ear.................................................................................................................. — 8
Lamps and Shades..................................................................................................... — 8
Infants’ W ear............................................................................................................... — 8
Toys and Gam es........................................................................................................ — 9
Linens and Towels...................................................................................................... — 9
Inexpensive Dresses (Women’s and Misses’ ) ......................................................... — 9
Laces and Trimmings................................................................................................ — 10
Neckwear and Scarfs................................................................................................. — 10
Draperies, Curtains, etc.............................................................................................— 12
Underwear, Slips and Negligees.............................................................................. — 12
H ousew ares...............................................................................................................— 18
Men’s Furnishings and H ats..................................................................................... — 14
Handkerchiefs............................................................................................................. — 14
Furs............................................................................................................................... — 16
Aprons, Housedresses and Uniforms....................................................................... — 15
Gloves (Women’s and Children’s )...........................................................................— 16
Blankets and Comforters........... .; .......................................................................... — 17
Radios, Phonographs and Television..................................................................... — 18
Cotton Wash G oods...................................................................................................— 18
Furniture and Bedding.............................................................................................. — 19
Domestics, Muslins, Sheetings................................................................................ —20
Domestic Floor Coverings....................................................................................... —22
Records, Sheet Music and Pianos........................................................................... —25
H osiery....................................................................................................................... —26
Major Household Appliances....................................................................................—28
Radios, Phonographs and Television.....................................................................
Toys and Gam es........................................................................................................
Millinery......... . ...........................................................................................................
Books and Stationery................................................................................................
Neckwear and Scarfs.................................................................................................
+52
+11
+ 3
+ 1
+ 1
Art Needlework..........................................................................................................— 1
Shoes (Women’s and Children’s ) ............................................................................ — 3
Gloves (Women’s and Children’s ).......................................................................... — 3
Blouses, Skirts and Sportswear............................................................................... — 4
Infants’ W ear............................................................................................................... — 4
Draperies, Curtains, e tc............................................................................................ — 5
Notions........................................................................................................................ — 5
Girls’ W ear.......................................................... ........................................................ — 6
Candy...........................................................................................................................— 6
H osiery........................................................................................................................ — 6
Handbags and Small Leather G oods.....................................................................— 7
Gift Shop.....................................................................................................................— 7
China and Glassware................................................................................................ — 7
Lamps and Shades..................................................................................................... — 7
Toilet Articles and Drug Sundries.......................................................................... — 9
Corsets and Brassieres.............................................................................................. — 9
Costume Jewelry........................................................................................................—10
Shoes (Men’s and B o y s ').......................................................................................... — 10
B oys’ W ear.................................................................................................................. — 10
Blankets and Comforters.......................................................................................... —10
Furs...............................................................................................................................— 10
Men’s Furnishings and H ats.....................................................................................— 11
Housewares................................................................................................................ — 11
Aprons, Housedresses and Uniforms.......................................................................— 11
Men’s Clothing............................................................................................................—11
Luggage........................................................................................................................ — 13
Woolen Dress Goods..................................................................................................— 13
Handkerchiefs.............................................................................................................— 14
Linens and Towels......................................................................................................— 15
Sporting Goods and Cameras.................................................................................. —15
Silverware and Clocks...............................................................................................—15
Fine Jewelry and W atches........................................................................................ — 16
Underwear, Slips and Negligees............................................................................. — 17
Inexpensive Dresses (Women’s and Misses’ ) ......................................................... — 17
Furniture and Bedding.............................................................................................. — 17
Domestics, Muslins and Sheetings.......................................................................... — 19
Better Dresses (Women’s and Misses’ ) .................................................................. —20
Records, Sheet Music and Pianos............................................................................—20
Coats and Suits (Women’s and Misses’ ) ................................................................ —20
Silks, Velvets and Synthetics.................................................................................. —23
Cotton Wash G oods.................................................................................................. —24
Laces and Trimmings................................................................................................—25
Juniors’ Coats, Suits and Dresses............................................................................—26
Domestic Floor Coverings....................................................................................... —28
Major Household Appliances.................................................................................... —35
G ROU P TO TA LS
Miscellaneous Merchandise Departments.............................................................. — 5
Small Wares................................................................................................................ — 7
B ASE M E N T STO R E T O T A L ............................................................................ —10
Men’s and B oys’ W ear............................................................................................... —11
G R A N D T O T A L (reporting stores)..................................................................... — 11
W omen’s Apparel and Accessories...........................................................................— 11
M A IN STORE T O T A L ......................................................................................... — 12
Housefurnishings........................................................................................................ — 16
Piece Goods and Household Textiles..................................................................... — 17
Sales b y Fourth District department stores during September increased more
than seasonally from August and reached the highest point since last June. Most de
partments remained below year ago levels, although the margin of difference was
smaller, in general, than it was in August.
Leading the increases from August were many items in the women's apparel and
accessories group. Sales of women’s and misses’ coats and suits were 20% below
last year and hosiery sales were 6% below last year, but both of these departments,
when seasonal variations are taken into account, showed sharp increases from
August levels. Moderate month-to-month gains on a seasonally adjusted basis were
scored b y women’s and misses’ dresses and b y women’s and children’s shoes. Sales
of accessories generally lagged somewhat behind sales of apparel.
Sales in the men’s and b oy's wear group were 11% below a year ago, the largest
year-to-year drop since early last spring. As in the women’s wear group, sales of
clothing fared better than sales of accessories. Sales of men’ s clothing increased
more than seasonally from August, while the September increase in sales of men’s
furnishings and hats was slightly less than normal. In each of these two depart
ments sales were 11% below a year ago.
In the housefurnishings group, sales of radios, phonographs and television con
tinued their recent spurt, with September sales well above August and 52% above
September 1948. In most of the departments in this group, however, September
proved to be a month of slow sales. Sales of furniture and bedding dropped more
than seasonally from the customary August peak for that department, and were
17% below a year ago, the lowest point since January 1946 on a seasonally adjusted
basis. Sales of major household appliances, down 35% from a year ago, and sales of
domestic floor coverings, down 28%. failed to show the usual September rise.
Sales of piece goods and household textiles as a group were 17% below a year
ago. Piece goods, however, showed a slight rise from August, while sales of house
hold textiles (linens, domestics, blankets) were down sharply from the previous
month.
All comparisons refer to dollar volume without adjustment for price changes.
G ROU P TOTALS
Small Wares................................................................................................................ — 2
BASE M EN T STORE T O T A L .............................................................................— 2
Women’s Apparel and Accessories...........................................................................— 4
Miscellaneous Merchandise Dept’s .......................................................................... — 8
Men’s and Boys’ W ear............................................................................................... — 8
G R A N D T O T A L (reporting stores)..................................................................... — 8
M A IN STORE T O T A L ........................................................................................ — 9
Piece Goods and Household Textiles..................................................................... —12
Housefurnishings........................................................................................................ — 16
Inventories of Fourth District department stores rose more than seasonally
during September. Especially in apparel lines, restocking occurred along with
improved sales during the month.
The seasonally adjusted gain in inventories for all departments averaged 6%
during the month, marking the first substantial rise since last November. At
month end, however, stocks were still 8% below year-ago levels. Inventories in a
number of important departments failed to rise during the month, and for 19 in
dividual departments the month-end levels of stocks were 10% or more below
those of a year ago.
Substantial additions were made to stocks in the women s apparel and acces
sories group, and at the close of the month inventories in these departments aver
aged only 4% below a year ago. For example, stocks of women's and misses’ coats
and suits, where September sales showed marked improvement over previously
reduced levels, were 12% above a year ago at the end of the month. Stocks of
dresses, where September sales were also favorable, were up sharply from the
previous month, but nevertheless were 5% below a year ago at month end. Stocks
of women’s and children’s shoes rose moderately during a month of good sales, and
closed 7% above a year ago. All other departments in the women’s wear group
showed at least some increase in stocks during the month. However, certain de
partments like hosiery, where stocks were down 26% from a year ago, reported
large year-to-year declines mainly because of previous depletions or because of
drops in prices from the year-ago period.
Inventories of men’s and boys’ wear rose normally for the month, and closed 8%
below year-ago levels. Stock increases were evenly distributed among the depart
ments in this group. The year-to-year comparisons varied from an increase of 2%
for men’s and boys’ shoes to a decrease of 14% for men’ s furnishings and hats.
Stocks in the housefurnishings group showed a small average rise during Septem
ber and closed the month 16% below year-ago levels. Inventories of major house
hold appliances and of radios, phonographs and television showed practically no
change during the month, and at the end of September were 28% and 18% respec
tively below a year ago. Stocks of china and glassware also showed no change dur
ing the month, but nevertheless closed 2% above a year ago. In all other depart
ments of the housefurnishings group, stocks rose moderately during September
but at month end were substantially below year-ago levels.
All comparisons refer to dollar value of inventory at retail, without adjustment
for price changes.
Monthly Business Review
November 1, 1949
Page 11
FINANCIAL AND OTHER BUSINESS STATISTICS
Time Deposits
at 58 Banks in 12 Fourth District C ities
Bank Debits*— September 1949
in 31 Fourth D istrict C ities
(Compiled October 17, and released for publication October 18)
C ity and Number
of Banks
Tim e Deposits
Sept. 28, 1949
Average W eekly Change During:
Sept.
Aug.
Sept.
1949
1949
1948
Toledo (4 )...................
Columbus (3 ).............
Youngstown (3 )......... .
Dayton (3)..................
102,522,000
82,969,000
63,459,000
45,440,000
Canton (5 )................... .
Erie (4)........................
Wheeling (5 )............... .
Lexington (5)..............
42,455,000
40,223,000
27,639,000
10,721,000
-1! 72,000
+ 167,000
95,000
— 97,000
_ 241,000
+ 14,000
83,000
— 76,000
_ 86,000
+ 9,000
8,000
+ 8,000
T O T A L — 12 Cities. .$2,051,050,000
—$560,000
Cleveland (4 ).............
Pittsburgh (11)..........
Cincinnati (8 ).............
Akron (3 )....................
.$
.
.
.
890,979,000
460,455,000
181,750,000
102,438,000
(In thousands of dollars)
(Compiled October 11, and released for publication October 13)
-$
+
—
+
—
—
—
_
+
—
—
855,000
40,000
152,000
98,000
86,000
29,000
96,000
77,000
56,000
11,000
24,000
4,000
- $ 1 ,254,000
+ 41,000
$
+ 1,624,000
+ 259,000
— 30,000
+ 104,000
+ 124,000
+ 87,000
— 89,000
+ 42,000
+ 26,000
42,000
+ 4,000
—
+$2 ,150,000
Tim e deposits at 58 leading banks in the Fourth District declined 0.1 percent
during September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline.
The over-all decline since the end of March is equivalent to about 0.8 percent.
Although the sum involved is almost negligible in comparison with total balances,
it nevertheless represents the longest sustained decline in the postwar period.
In terms of actual dollars, the reductions at the combined 58 banks ran at a
rate of <560,000 per week during September, as against an expansion of $2,150,000
per week a year earlier.
Individual Cities
In Cleveland, Youngstown, and Canton, the trend was downward, as against a net
increase during the same period in 1948, and in each city time deposits declined to
a new low for the year.
In Pittsburgh and Columbus, the September increase was substantially smaller
than last year.
In Cincinnati and Toledo, tim e deposits declined in contrast to gains during
September of last year.
The contraction in tim e deposits in Akron was larger during the past month than
a year ago.
25 Fourth District Member Banks
(Compiled October 20, and released for publication October 21)
— 1.8%
— 1.7
— 18.9
+21.9%
+ 0 .7
+16.2
— 8.4
— 6.5
+33.7
— 17.4
+23.8
+13.6
+88.0
+27.2
Type of Credit
Outstanding at End of M o.
Compared W ith
M o. Ago Y r. Ago
Total consumer instalment credit____+1.6%
Personal instalment cash loans.............—2.0
Repair and modernization loans...........+1.8
Direct retail instalment loans
(a) Automobile....................................+ 2.0
(b) Other...............................................—0.5
Retail instalment paper purchased
(a) Autom obile....................................+ 3.8
(b) Other...............................................+4.8
+19.8%
— 0.2
+20.3
+38.8
— 10.3
% Change
from
Year Ago
3 Months % Change
Ended
from
Sept. 1949 Year Ago
191 A L L 31 C E N T E R S
$6,657,429
10 L A R G E S T C E N T E R S :
5
,. .Ohio $ 218,251
5
104,405
16
859.329
10
1,692,328
7
547,539
4
217,823
6
317,795
4 Youngstown.............
157,744
6
. Penna.
83,816
51
.Penna. 1,856,748
$19,934,050
-
- 3.7%
— 13.5
— 5.2
— 12.0
+ 1.2
— 4.2
— 12.7
+ 1.8
— 7.6
— 11.7
$
— 2.8%
— 17.1
— 6.8
— 6.9
— 2.3
— 7.2
— 9.8
— 9.1
— 10.6
— 5.7
113
-
$18,162,593
-
- 5.3%
— 17.2
— 14.1
— 2.0
+ 0.5
— 13.4
— 11.5
— 7.1
— 14.5
— 2.6
— 16.6
— 0.5
— 4.7
— 13.8
— 10.6
— 16.3
— 18.4
— 8.1
— 11.4
— 15.6
+ 8.8
$
- 8.8%
— 14.4
— 19.4
— 5.6
— 2.9
—13.8
— 9.5
— 8.3
— 14.9
— 4.2
— 14.1
— 7.5
— 7.3
— 17.5
— 8.3
— 12.7
— 19.7
— 3.4
— 13.2
— 12.8
+ 1.2
-
$ 1,771,457
T O T A L ............................. $6,055,778
21 O T H E R C E N T E R S :
9 Co vington- Newport .. ..K y . $
« Lexington................. .. .K y .
3
3
2 L im a......................... ... Ohio
5
4
2 M iddletow n............ . . . Ohio
3 Portsmouth............ .. . Ohio
3
4 Steubenville............... .Ohio
2 Warren......................
3
3 Butler...................... . Penna.
1 Franklin.................. . Penna.
2 Greensburg............. . Penna.
4
. Penna.
3 M eadville................ . Penna.
4 Oil C ity ................... . Penna.
5
. Penna.
6 Wheeling................. .W. Va.
78
T O T A L ................
36,992
51,997
16,603
38,249
41,125
17,527
38,829
31,267
18,922
44,001
20,475
36,782
25,741
29,575
6,551
18,973
9,975
11,011
18,433
24,139
64,484
$ 601,651
-
8.9%
9.0%
7.7%
662,345
298,766
2,467,206
5,166,849
1,668,829
641,084
995,114
436,409
248,651
5,577,340
109,094
152,584
49,296
110,957
129,344
51,322
110,435
90,638
55,260
132,913
62,755
105,142
75,066
84,174
19,453
58,887
28,006
33,958
53,547
75,096
183,530
-
6.7%
6.4%
9.2%
♦Debits to all deposit accounts except interbank balances.
TEN LARGEST CENTERS
Although third quarter debits were smaller than last year in each of the ten
cities the net declines were less than 3% in Akron and Columbus. In Youngstown ac
well as Columbus debits last month were larger than in September 1948.
TWENTY-ONE SMALLER CENTERS
Among the smaller localities, only Wheeling shows a gain (1.2%) over the third
quarter of 1948. In Lima and Meadville, however, the year-to-year decline wa* less
than 4%.
Indexes of Department Store Sales and Stocks
+66.2
+17.4
During the month of September the amount of new consumer instalment loans
made b y 25 Fourth District m ember banks was off slightly from the preceding
(and longer) month, but in the aggregate was 21.9 percent larger than in the same
month last year.
Purchases of retail instalment paper, particularly automobile paper ran sub
stantially ahead of a year ago. Direct automobile loans bulked 33.7 percent larger
than a year ago, and new loans for repair and modernization purposes exceeded those
of last year b y 16.2 percent.
The volume of personal instalment cash loans, however, was very little larger
this September than last, and loan volume on consumer durables other than auto
mobiles was 17.4 percent below a year ago. The amount of such loans outstanding at
the end of September was below that of the comparable date last year.
The rate of repayment on all classes of consumer instalment loans combined was
slightly higher than in the corresponding month of 1948. During the month collec
tions were approximately 12 percent of the amount outstanding at the end of the
preceding month.
Sept.
1949
_Debits to deposit accounts (other than interbank accounts) in 31 Fourth District
cities totaled $6,657,000,000 during September, or 8.9% less than in the same month
of 1948.
In view of the fact that deposit balances owned b y individuals and corporations
were actually slightly larger on September 30 than a year earlier, it is clear that
the rate of turnover has slowed down perceptibly in recent months.
For the third quarter as a whole, debits were 6.7% below a year ago. The yearto-year drop was 6.4% in the larger cities, and 9.2% in the smaller localities.
For six months or longer, the trend toward reduced debit totals has been more
pronounced in the smaller cities than in the large centers, although in both areas,
deposits are essentially unchanged from a year ago.
Changes in Consumer Instalment C re d it
September 1949
New LoansM ade
Compared W ith
M o. Ago
Y r. Ago
N o. of
Reporting
Banks
Daily Average for 1935-1939 = 100
Adjusted for_
W ithout
Seasonal Variation
Seasonal Adjustment
Sept.
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Aug.
Sept.
1948
1949
1949
1949
1949
1948
SALES:
Akron-(6)...................
Canton (5)..................
Cincinnati (8)............
Cleveland (10)...........
Columbus (5)............
Erie (3 )......................
Pittsburgh (8)...........
Springfield (3)...........
Toledo (6)..................
Wheeling (6)..............
Youngstown (3)........
District (96)..............
STOCKS:
D istrict......................
r—R evised.
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
282
343
296
260
331
311
264
292
302
250
320
279
281
305
298
248
327
291
259
282
279
223
297
269
334r
415r
336
287
378r
335
299
309
323
283r
376
316
285
350
299
260
331
308
262
286
299
255
317
282
239
268
248
218
274
242
220
234
235
179
258
234
337
423
340
287
378
332
296
303
319
289
372
320
.......
242
229
266r
264
242
290
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