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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Vol. 12 Cleveland, Ohio, November 1, 1930 Business in the Fourth District was irregular in Sep tember and the first part of October with no definite trend clearly discernible. After allowing for seasonal variations, improvement was reported in retail distribu tion, coal and automobile production, particularly trucks, and many small manufacturers noticed an increase in the volume of orders, in some cases contrary to seasonal tendencies. Activity at textile factories also increased. Another favorable factor was the slight improvement in the employment situation, which, however, was entirely of a seasonal nature. Iron and steel, shoe, rubber and tire production and building activity increased less than the usual seasonal amount, so that throughout September business in this District was still at low levels. In early October a slight upward movement was reflected in expanding commercial loans at reporting member banks in leading cities, the first persistent upturn in these borrowings for several months. Building activity also increased. Looking back over the last year it is evident that a re cession of serious proportions has been experienced by many of the principal industries of the Fourth District. Production of agricultural products and raw and manu factured goods has been sharply curtailed and distribu tion and consumption of most products has been mate rially reduced. However, the present state of general business is somewhat exaggerated by making comparisons with 1929 when operations were about as far above the average of past years as present conditions are below. Declining commodity prices have further complicated mat ters by distorting many comparisons which include dol lar valuations. FINANCIAL The only change of any particular consequence in financial conditions during the past month was the in crease in commercial loans. Seasonal firming of money rates has not been evident so far this fall and demand for general bank accommodation, although showing a slight increase, is still below the average of past years. Such changes as have taken place have not altered the con dition of relative ease, and evidence that the supply of credit exceeds current demands still prevails. Reserve Bank Credit. A slight seasonal expansion in demand for commercial funds from member banks partly accounted for the increase in the volume of bills dis counted during the past month. Rising from a low point No. 11 of $11,810,000 on September 17 to $27,049,000 on Octo ber 22, bills discounted showed an increase of approxi mately $15,000,000 for the period. Last year, although the general level of discounts was materially higher than at present, in the corresponding period they increased from $75,782,000 to $90,945,000. In 1928 the sea sonal expansion was somewhat smaller, being only $7,000,000. The increase seems to have been quite well distributed between city and country banks. Acceptances and government securities held were prac tically unchanged from a month ago. The combined volume, however, $77,907,000 on October 22, was larger than total holdings of acceptances and government se curities one year ago when they amounted to $70,812,000. In 1928 and 1927 these holdings were $71,498,000 and $77,553,000 respectively, indicating that holdings of paper resulting from open market operations which tend to ease the credit situation, of this bank at least, were larger than in the past three years. The total volume of credit extended on October 22 was $105,006,000, ex ceeding $100,000,000 for the first time since early March. One year ago total bills and securities amounted to $162,057,000. Note circulation, after showing a slight spurt in early September has since declined. Member Bank Credit. Notwithstanding an increase in commercial loans at reporting member banks in leading cities in the past month, total loans made by these banks in the Fourth District were $5,000,000 smaller than in September and, at $1,496,000,000 on October 22 were 4.2 per cent below last year at that time. In the entire country the decline from one year ago was three per cent. Loans on securities receded rather sharply in the last half of September and the first half of October, but showed a slight increase in the week of October 22. At $727,000,000, the higher level, they were $2,000,000 be low one year ago. Banks in this District seem to have been liquidating their collateral loans at a more rapid rate than in the entire country, for, security loans at all reporting member banks in the United States are still five per cent larger than one year ago. "A ll other" loans, usually considered commercial, have increased in the past four weeks, the upward move ment being entirely seasonal. They are still 7.6 per cent below last year's level; the drop from 1929, however, is slightly less than the 9.6 per cent decrease shown for the country as a whole. 2 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW An interruption to the general upward trend of in vestments noticed in the first nine months of this year occurred in October, the recession from the high point of the year, ($809,000,000 on September 24) to October 22 being $21,000,000. Deposits, both time and demand, declined in the past month, the former receding $16,000,000 from the high point for all time reached on September 24, and the latter $45,000,000 since September 10, at which time, however, they were slightly below the record high reached on July 16, 1930. This contraction of deposits has been proportionately greater than decrease in the total volume of credit extended, accounting for the increased discounts at the Reserve bank. Savings. Interest in the trend of savings deposits in the past year has been quite marked. This is partly because they afford an indication of general prosperity and the ability or inability of persons to put aside system atically part of their regular earnings. It is natural to expect that, in periods similar to the past year, the growth of savings deposits would be retarded. The accompanying chart shows the trend of savings deposits (excluding certificates of deposit and Christmas or other savings clubs which are only temporary in many cases) at 28 large savings institutions in the Fourth District from 1925 to date. These banks were selected so that mergers would not affect the figures. In a few instances where mergers have occurred the fig ures for the merging concerns for the entire period were obtained. In the first four years under consideration savings deposits showed a steady upward trend, averaging about seven per cent a year. The only marked deviations from this upward movement occurred in January and July of each year except in the case of January, 1928. This is evidently caused by withdrawals for tax payments in both cases and vacations in the case of July and payment of Christmas bills in January. Even in 1929 and 1930 when savings deposits were not showing the usual up trend, the same declines are noticed in these two months. The general upward movement shown from 1925 to 1928 did not continue in 1929. In fact, savings de posits at the end of last year were smaller than in January. The seasonal falling-off in January, 1930, was not so pronounced as in three of the four preceding years, and since that time savings deposits have shown a slight upward tendency, being 0.7 per cent larger on October I than at the beginning of the year. While the ac cumulation of money in savings accounts has been re tarded in the past two years, withdrawals apparently have not been as marked as might be expected in a period of severe business recession. MANUFACTURING, MINING Iron and Steel Declines in both steel production and demand in the month ended October 15 branded the improvement reported in the first part of September purely seasonal in charac ter, and less than seasonal in amount. So far demand underlying the market has changed little from early autumn. September’s daily ingot production rate was 110,307 gross tons, against 119,050 tons in August, a decline of seven per cent which contrasted with a gain of about one per cent shown for that month in past years. A sea sonal improvement seemed to be developing in the first part of September, but contractions in the last half of the month more than wiped out the earlier gains. Mills were operating at only 55 per cent of capacity in September as against 59 per cent in August and 56 per cent in July. Operations in this District probably averaged 53 to 54 per cent. Steel ingot production was at the lowest rate for any month since September, 1924, even falling below the low point reached last winter. Output in the first nine months of 1929 was 32,689,869 tons, compared with 43,353,830 tons in the same period last year. This was also the lowest nine-month output since 1924. Pig iron output in September, at 75,893 gross tons a day, continued the downward trend which started last May. This compared with 102,100 tons last September and was also the lowest for any month since September, 1924. Nine months’ output was 25,744,941 tons, against 32,682,700 tons in the same period last year. Only 126 blast furnaces were active on September 30, a decline of II for the month. While the present lethargic situation contained nothing to indicate further marked contraction in demand, there was little to offer any hope for decided betterment in the remainder of the year. Automotive requirements in the month ended October 15, chiefly for sheet, strip, bar and alloy steel, showed little change from a month ago. Heavier specifications were released by one large small- THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW car manufacturer, mostly for delivery in early 1931, but easing-off at other plants neutralized this order. Railroad orders for equipment continued negligible, be ing necessarily curtailed by the sharp drop in current earnings caused by the decline in carloadings. Inquiries for track material have expanded, but this had little ef fect on Fourth District mills. Pipe backlogs continued to grow lighter with no outstanding replacement orders visible. Structural steel requirements were still mod erate, and also considerably below the level of other districts. Tin plate mills experienced a seasonal shrink ing in specifications. 3 Registrations in leading counties of this District in Sep tember were 22 per cent smaller than in August and 42.5 per cent below September, 1929. In the entire state of Ohio registrations declined 17 per cent from August, the average drop shown in the past five years. Conditions in the rubber industry and centers relying on this type of work for the bulk of their employment con tinued at low levels in September. The number of men engaged in the manufacture of rubber products at 2 3 concerns declined six per cent from August to September, which was more severe than the average decrease for Coal Production of bituminous coal in the that season of two per cent. For the first nine months Fourth District in September, at 15,employment has averaged 23 per cent below the same 643,000 tons, showed a greater than period of 1929. This unfavorable situation is reflected seasonal increase from August of 5.6 per cent. Output, in general conditions, particularly at Akron where de both for the month and the year-to-date was 10.5 and partment store sales in September were 25 per cent below 9.1 per cent respectively below the corresponding periods the same month last year and the first three quarters of 1929. In the entire country coal production in of 1930 showed a drop of 19 per cent from the corre creased 8.2 per cent from August, but was still 14.5 per sponding period of one year ago. Large declines are also cent below September last year. reported in wholesale sales and bank debits. Mine operators and dealers in the District reported a The preliminary report of dealers' stocks of automobile seasonal increase in the demand for domestic coal, but tires as of October 1 for the entire country showed a de little change in the commercial coal situation. Small-size cline from last year. Stocks at 23,971 dealers averaged industrial fuel is in little demand and the industry re 60.4 casings per dealer, as compared with 68.4 casings ports the lowest prices on these grades for years. The last year and 64.8 casings on October 1, 1928. Inven stock of coal above ground is stated to be somewhat lower tories at rubber factories have also declined since May than the average of past seasons. and are now lower than at any time since October, 1928. Production in August (the latest available) increased Automobiles Automobile production in the United slightly, but was over 1,000,000 tires below output in States continued to show pronounced August, 1929. curtailment in September and, based on weekly production schedules, presented no signs of Imports of crude rubber in September amounted to improvement in the first part of October from the pre 39,467 tons as compared with 32,515 tons last year. Im vailing low levels. portations in the first nine months were 377,954 tons as against 433,566 tons in the same period of 1929. Output in September, according to the Department of Prices continue at very low levels, crude rubber being Commerce, amounted to 221,931 passenger cars and quoted at 8% cents on October 22, a slight increase trucks, almost identical with the number manufactured from a month ago. in August, but only slightly more than half the 415,912 units produced in September, 1929. Although there is normally little change in the number of cars produced Clothing Operations in the textile industry in from August to September, the present volume is the this territory showed an increase of smallest for that month since 1922 and, barring No two per cent so far as employment was vember and December, 1929, was the smallest for any concerned. This was just about the normal seasonal month since October, 1927, which was unusually small change reported for that period in the past five years because of abnormal conditions within the industry. and was in line with the experience of such factories Production in the first three quarters of this year has throughout the country. Operations at factories engaged amounted <to only 2,927,8 91 cars and trucks as com in the production of men’s clothing were at a somewhat pared with 4,640,823 in the same period of 1929. Based higher rate than at others. on the experience of past years and present indications One of the most favorable developments of the past it seems reasonable to expect that total 1930 production month was the general improvement reported in the tex will more nearly approach the number of cars produced tile industries. Raw silk deliveries to mills were larger in 1927 than in any other year since 1922. than one year ago and exceeded August by 3 3 per cent. Cotton goods sales also showed a much greater than Passenger car output has been more drastically cur seasonal improvement. With production sharply cur tailed than truck production. In September the number tailed, this resulted in an increase in unfilled orders and of passenger cars produced was 50.3 per cent below out a decrease in stocks. Cotton consumption also increased put in the same month of 1929. For the year-to-date the in September and demand for wool has been good. In discrepancy between the two years was 37.8 per cent. Truck production showed a decided increase in Septem the depression of 1921, improvement was first shown in the textile industries. ber from the low level of August. Amounting to 41,975 u£its it was only 18.6 per cent below last year. In thQ Manufacturers have experienced practically no for first nine months the decline was 31 per cent. ward buying. Although substantially smaller orders than Rubber, Tires 4 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW one year ago are still being received, indications here and there point to a slightly better condition than a month ago. Some of the retailers are reported to be quite concerned about the promptness of deliveries, in dicating that stocks are low. This fact is also noticed at department stores where clothing stocks are from ten to twenty per cent smaller than one year ago. Shoes Shoe production at 50 factories in the Fourth District in September showed a decline of 16.7 per cent from August and 25 per cent from September, 1929. The drop from the previous month was of a seasonal nature, but slightly more pronounced than in other recent years. In the eight years 1923 to 1930 the average August-to-September decline was 7.4 per cent, six of the eight years show ing declines ranging from 1.3 per cent in 1925 to 25.8 per cent in 1923. In 1929 the falling-off was 4.2 per cent while in 1928 it was 15.4 per cent. The greater than seasonal improvement shown in August proved to be only temporary and output for the first nine months of this year was 20 per cent below production in the same period of 1929, and also smaller than in any similar period of the past eight years. Manufacturers report a decided decrease in the volume of orders received in the first part of October which is partly seasonal. Orders were slightly stimulated by the cold weather, but were only for immediate needs. Little forward buying, prompted by the lower level of prices, has been noticed. Hide prices showed a slight in crease in September, but have since declined. Sole leather prices, however, continued to decline, averaging 43 cents a pound in September. This compared with 56.5 cents last year and 68.2 cents in September, 1928. Other Manufacturing Some slightly conflicting reports regarding the present state of manufac turing activity have been received in the past month, but in the main a slight improvement is shown from a month ago. Inquiries have been showing a moderate increase in the past few weeks in several lines and orders have expanded. Whether this improve ment is generally more or less than seasonal is hard to ascertain. Clay Products. The entire industry showed no change in employment in September as compared with August, but this condition was not general in the various branches of production. Makers of brick, tile, china and pottery increased the number of men in their employ. Glass manufacturers, however, registered a decline in employment of about nine per cent from August with operations in September 30 per cent below last year. A slight increase in inquiries at a few concerns was reported and some seasonal orders have been received, but there are few indications that forward buying is being done to any extent. Electrical Supplies. Employment at 19 electrical ma chine and supply concerns increased two per cent in September which was about the normal increase shown at that time in past years. A larger number of inquiries were noticed in early October, at some centers, while oth ers reported a falling-off in demand. Raw material prices have not stimulated future buying to any extent. Copper has been selling near ten cents a pound as compared, with 18 cents a year ago. Hardware, Machinery. The machinery and tool in dustry reported a further drop in employment in Sep tember, in contrast with usual seasonal stability. A recurrence of spottiness developed in October, the slight increase in early September orders proving only tempo rary. A large number of inquiries for material has been reported, but few of these have definitely taken shape. Hardware manufacturers report stocks unusually low, but no change in demand for products. Metal Containers. Demand for metal containers con tinues very favorable with some companies reporting larg er sales in September than one year ago. Tin plate prices have been reduced. Little forward buying has been re ported. Collections are good. Paint. Demand for house paint, after showing a sea sonal spurt in September, has again receded. This is partly seasonal, for inclement weather always affects paint sales materially. Orders for the next few months will be mostly for spring consumption; one large company re ports less conservatism concerning these orders than was shown last year. Industrial and manufacturing demand is still spotty. The price situation has not as yet prompt ed any advance buying. Paper. Operations in the paper and stationery indus try showed a sharp decline in September contrary to the experience of past years when little change has been reported. Average employment for the first nine months of this year, nevertheless, was four per cent greater than for the same period of 1929. There seems to be a hesi tancy about placing future orders despite low prices. Cur rent orders continue unchanged, little seasonal improve ment being noticed. Stoves, Equipment. Conditions remain unchanged from a month ago. A slight increase in the number of inquiries was reported, but actual orders are small and only for present needs. em ploym ent Based on reports from State and Municipal Employ ment Bureaus in 13 cities of the Fourth District, general employment conditions showed almost seasonal improve ment in September, the increase for the month being 5.3 per cent as compared with an average increase in Septem ber in the three years 1927-29 of 5.8 per cent. This estimate is based on the ratio of requests for workers to applications for employment at the various free em ployment bureaus throughout the District. The ratio this year has remained at a considerably lower level than in the preceding three years. These figures, which represent the situation with regard to un skilled labor conditions more than do other general em ployment indexes, show that so far this year the ratio o f demand for labor to the supply of workers has averaged over 20 per cent below the average of the first nine months of the three years 1927-29. The index o f the Ohio State University Bureau o f Business Research shows that employment In Ohio in the first nine months o f this year averaged 16 per cent below the corresponding period of 1929. This latter index largely represents manufac THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW turing employment. Possibly by using both indexes a better indication of the true unemployment situation in this District might be obtained. Bather wide variations are shown in industrial em ployment in individual sections of the District. Cleve land, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Toledo showed increases in September, while Canton, Dayton and Youngstown re ported declines. For the first nine months of this year employment has averaged eight per cent below the cor responding period of 1929 in Columbus, 10 per cent in Cincinnati and Youngstown, 12 per cent in Dayton, 13 per cent in Cleveland, 21 per cent in Akron and 37 per cent in Toledo. Farm labor demand also has declined sharply this year, being 72 per cent of normal in Ohio in September and 79 per cent in Pennsylvania. The supply of such labor was reported to be 112 per cent of normal in Ohio and 102 per cent in Pennsylvania. BUILDING Lumber dealers, both in this District and throughout the country, reported an improvement in the first part of October in the demand for building materials. Ship ments from lumber mills and incoming orders have ex ceeded production in the past four weeks. There seems to be a more optimistic feeling existing in the lumber trade and a few concerns are reported to be buying some stock at the prevailing low prices. A seasonal increase in retail orders and inquiries has also been noticed. Prices for building materials, in sympathy with the general trend of commodity prices, declined further dur ing September, but despite the curtailment in building activity, are still above the level of prices in general. The Aberthaw Index of the Cost of Building declined in September to 185, the lowest since 1922. Building activity in the first part of October in this District showed a favorable improvement from Septem ber, according to the F. W. Dodge Corporation. Contracts awarded averaged $1,938,000 a day in the first three weeks of October, as compared with a daily average of $1 ,470,700 in September. This was still below the vol ume reported in October, 1929, when contracts amounted to $2,985,400 daily. Operations in September, the latest month for which complete information is available, showed less than sea- 5 sonal improvement from August. Contracts awarded in the Fourth District in the month amounted to $34,268,000, as compared with $33,784,000 in August and $64,140,000 in September, 1929. The decline from last September was 47 per cent. In the first nine months of this year new construction amounted to $394,417,000 as against $493,522,000 in the same period of 1929, a drop of 20 per cent. In the same period residential construc tion reached $86,880,000 this year, while in 1929 it amounted to $132,301,000. Although residential build ing in the entire country registered a gain in September over August, residential awards in September in this District showed a decline, and only amounted to $7,210,000. Excluding December, 1929, this was the smallest amount reported since early 1922. TRADE Retail Trade During September the volume of retail trade as shown by reports from 57 large department stores in all parts of the Fourth District increased more than seasonally, rising from 96 in August to 98 per cent of the 1923-1925 month ly average. At this point it was still much below last year at this time when the index was 114. The seasonal adjustments do not allow for changes in commodity prices so that since commodity prices, both whole sale and retail, have declined sharply in the past year, a comparison of dollar volumes in the two years exagger ates the situation to some extent. Considerable variation is reported in the individual cities, declines from a y^ar ago of 25 and 20 per cent being reported at Akron and Dayton; 15 per cent at Cleveland and Toledo; 14 per cent at Wheeling and 5 per cent at Pittsburgh. Columbus and Cincinnati both showed gains from September, 1929, the increases being 0.6 per cent and 5.3 per cent, respectively. Stocks showed a seasonal increase from August, but are still below last year. Collections are holding up quite well; in September they were only 4.8 per cent below the corresponding month of 1929. This seems favorable in view of the drop in total sales. The ratio of charge to total sales was 64.3 per cent in September, while one year ago it was 65.1 per cent. Furniture sales still show large declines, although the comparison of September this year with the same month of 1929 showed a smaller decrease than in August. Sales at 16 wearing apparel stores were off 9.9 per cent in September from the same month last year. Wholesale Trade All reporting wholesale lines showed rather sizeable gains in September from August, most of which were sea sonal. The composite sales index of 82 firms advanced from 86.2 to 90.7. This was slightly greater than the increase for that month in the past two years, but less than the average increase of the five years, 1924-1929. Katio of Demand for Workers to Applications fo r Employment at 13 PafcHc Employment Bureau* in the Fourth District, 1930 Compared with Previous Three Years. For the first nine months all lines reported decreases, the smallest being in grocery sales which were off 4.9 per cent. Drugs were down 10.2; hardware 17.1; dry goods 19.7 and shoes 31.3 per cent. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS KEVIEW 6 AGRICULTURE The latest report of the Department of Agriculture shows that improvement in most crop prospects in September was quite general, composite yields increasing 1.9 per cent during the month. Composite Yields—All Crops O h io .............................................................................. P e n n sy lv a n ia............................................................ K e n t u c k y ................................................................... W est V irg in ia .......................................................... U nited S ta tes........................................................... P rospective O ct. 1 cro p yielda as % o f 10-year average 1919-1928. 7 6 .6 8 4 .4 5 7 .2 5 8 .4 9 0 .3 C h ange from Sept. 1 + 3 .2 T A 'f + 2 .3 + 1 -9 The foregoing table shows that the improvement dur ing September was better than average in Ohio and Ken tucky, but less than for the entire country in Pennsyl vania and West Virginia. Compared with the ten-year average, however, total crop yields in this District are much smaller than for the country as a whole. Kentucky and West Virginia with yields of only 57.2 and 58.4 per cent as large respectively as the ten-year average, showed the poorest prospects for the entire country, while Penn sylvania ranked thirty-fifth, and Ohio fortieth. The improvement during September was caused by warmer than average weather and rains in most parts of the District, each of which was very beneficial to growing crops. Notwithstanding, the drought, so far as this territory is concerned, is far from broken and farmers in many sections are still faced with water shortages. Pastures have improved, but are much below normal and winter rations are being fed in many cases. A survey made in Ohio indicated that 550,000 tons of hay will have to be bought in the state to carry the live stock through the winter, despite the fact that Ohio farmers will keep 31 per cent fewer beef cattle, three per cent fewer dairy cattle, nine per cent fewer sheep and 20 per cent fewer hogs than they had last winter. While the entire country’s feed supply is perhaps sufficient as a whole, a large volume must be transported into the deficit areas at an additional cost to the farmers affected by the drought. Partly compensating for this and the decrease in milk, butter and egg production which has resulted, prices of butter, eggs, and all meat animals, except lambs, were higher than one month ago. Com. The corn crop improved during September and production in the District was estimated on October 1 at 105.341.000 bushels, an increase during the month of 4.602.000 bushels, or 4.6 per cent. Compared with the harvest of 1929, however, a decline of 38 per cent is shown, and present prospects are 43 per cent below the average harvest of the past five years when 184,000,000 bushels were produced. Corn C on d ition O ctober 1 (P e r ce n t) Y ie ld per Acre (B u .) 1930 1929 10-year In d ica te d 10-year average O ct. 1, average 1919-1928 1930 1919-1928 O h i o . . . . . . . . ................... S6 P enm ylvam a................. W «"tUV k g i n i , ................ 73 83 68 39 United State#. " . * 5 8 . 8 2 4 .5 3 9 .2 0 ;J 2s'.9 75 85 1 4 .0 3 3 .5 71.0 78.1 20.2 28.2 On the whole, yields in the Fourth District are not more than one-half those usually obtained. In many localities the entire crop was put into silos, too few of the ears having set to make husking profitable. Oats. Production of oats was average or better in all but eight states in the country, three of which belong to this Federal reserve district. The harvest of this section, estimated on October 1 at 83,464,000 bushels, was about 29 per cent ahead of the small harvest of 1929, but com pared with 89,171,000 bushels, the average harvest of the five years, 1925-29. The total supply of feed grains (corn, oats, barley and grain sorghums) for the entire country, will be 15 per cent below that for the 1929-30 season and 18 per cent below the average supply for the past five years, accord ing to the Department of Agriculture. The distribution in the individual states and localities varies widely, some being at or above average while others are far below normal. In Ohio the production of feed grain per animal was 31 per cent below the average production of the past five years. In Pennsylvania, Kentucky and West Virginia production of feed grains was 34, 56 and 55 per cent respectively below the five-year average. Hay and Pasture. Hay production in the Fourth Dis trict is now estimated at 4,137,000 tons as compared with 7.168.000 tons harvested in 1929 and 6,326,000 tons, the five-year average. Pastures are still quite short,' al though improvement was quite general during Septem ber. Dairy farmers in many sections have had to use feed stored for winter use because of the poor pastures. Potatoes. Improvement in many localities in the con dition of the potato crop was attributed to the rains, and the crop of the District was estimated on October 1 at 14.539.000 bushels, as compared with 12,281,000 bushels on September 1. Total production is still much below the average of the past five years when 20,536,000 bushels were reported. In the entire country production was esti* mated to be eleven per cent below the average of the last five years. Tobacco. General improvement was reported in the tobacco crop in September, the laterplanted crop being greatly helped by rains. Tobacco C on dition O ctob er 1 ____ vr e r c «n t) 1930 1929 10-year P rod u ction 1930 7 li 87 321-850 81 76 84 77 6 664 1,496,780 1 9*9-192 ! & ;? * ucltjr................ ojq f c iV a n ia - .:::: « W est V i r g i n i a . . . . U nited S ta te s ------- 62 70 7? (1000 lb s .) 1929 Average 3S9'277 1919-1928 | 06 - ^ i? $ l 6 588 1,519,081 330,997 K - ig 2 ^ 1 1,302*463 Although improvement was marked in Ohio and Ken tucky, production in the latter state was over 9,000,000 pounds below the ten-year average and nearly 70,000,000 pounds below the harvest of last year. Much of this re duction has occurred in the burley crop, (grown mostly in eastern Kentucky) which was estimated on October 1 at 289,596,000 bushels as compared with 334,619,000 bushels harvested last year. This decline occurred de spite an increase of 32,000 acres, or 16 per cent, in the area planted. The Ohio crop is larger than one year ago, with tobacco in the Miami Valley being better than for years. Considering the entire crop, it is thought that the percentage of good to fine grades will be small with the proportion of medium and common grades much larger than usual. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Fourth District Business Statistics (000 o m itte d ) % Fourth District Business Indexes % Septem ber, change change 1930 from S ept., from 1929 1930 1929 Fourth D istrict Unless O therw ise Specified Bank D ebits— 24 citie s .......................... J5 2.880,000 — 1 6 .0 2 8 ,209,000 — 1 2 .2 Savings D eposits— end o f m on th : O hio— 35 banks ..................................$ 774.920 + 0 .4 7 7 1 .1 9 4 1 — 0 .1 W estern Pa.— 24 ba n k s.....................$ 279,995 + 1 .5 277,291* + 0 . 1 T o ta l— 59 b a n k s.................................. $ 1,054,915 + 0 .7 1,048,4851 — 0 .0 4 Postal R eceipts— 9 citie s ..................... $ 2,880 — 6 .4 26,087 — S . 8 Life Insurance Sales: O h io a n d P a ........................................... $ 83,530 — 1 1 .4 1,041,176 + 1 .5 R etail Sales: D epartm ent Stores— 57 firm s.........$ 22,848 — 10.1 198,185 — 8 .8 W earing Apparel Stores— 16 firm s. $ 1,432 — 9 .9 12,735 — 9 .8 Furniture— 50 firm s............................$ 718 — 3 9 .9 7,144 — 3 1 .7 W holesale Sales: Drugs— 13 firm s................................... $ 1,611 — 9 .8 14,386 — 1 0 .3 D ry G ood s— 10 firm s......................... $ 1,688 — 2 8 .7 13,546 — 1 9 .7 G rocery— 41 firm s............................... $ 6,265 — 7 .7 52,917 — 4 . 9 H ardware— 17 firm s........................... $ 1,767 — 1 8 .6 16,066 — 1 7 .1 Building Perm its— 27 c itie s ................. $ 11,367 — 3 1 .1 123,376 — 24 .1 Building C on tracts— R esidential. . . . 3 7,210 — 4 2 .2 86,880 — 3 4 .3 Building C on tracts— T o t a l— All C lasses..............................................$ 34,268 — 4 6 . 6 394,417 — 2 0 .1 C om m ercial Failures— L ia b ilit ie s ... .3 2,738 — 2 1.1 32,151 + 1 3 .2 148a — 1 .3 1,483» + 3 . 6 Com m ercial Failures— N u m b e r ............ P rodu ction: Pig Iron, U. S.................................T o n s 2,277 — 3 4 .6 25,745 — 2 1 .1 Steel Ingots, U. S......................... T o n s 2,868 — 3 6 .4 32,689 — 24 .4 A u tom obiles— Pass. Cars, U. S........ 180,5472 — 5 0 .3 2,485,049* — 3 7 .8 A u tom obiles— T ru ck s, U. S............... 4 1 .9 7 5 3 — 1 8 .6 4 3 7 ,4 2 0 s — 3 1.1 Bitum inous C o a l ..........................T o n s 15.643 — 1 0 .5 139,380 — 9 .1 C em en t— O., W . Pa., W . Va. Bbls. 1,919 same 13,988 + 1 2 .1 Elec. P ow er— O ., Pa., K y. . .k .u .h . 1,148* — 13 5 9,659* — 2 .5 Petroleum — O ., Pa., K y . ..........B b h . 1,991* — 13 3 18,6234 + 1 0 , 4 S hoe*............................................... Pairs * — 25 3 * — 2 0 .6 T ir e s ............................................ Casings 3,348* — 2 3 .7 30,966* — 2 7 .8 Bituminous C oa l Shipm ents: Lake Erie P o r ts ..........................T on s 4,920 — 2 .1 29,866 + 0 .3 Iron Ore R eceipts: Lake Erie P o r ts ..........................T on s 4,721 — 28 7 26,240 — 2 8 .3 ^•Monthly Average 4 Jan .-A u gu st *A ctu al N u m ber C o n fid e n t ia l •August Wholesale and Retail Trade (1930 com pared with 1929) Percentage Increase or Decrease STOCKS SA LE S SA L E S First S cp t.,S ep t,,nine Sept. Sept., M o n th s D E P A R T M E N T STORES (57) Akron. . .................................................................... Cincinnati............................ .................................. Cleveland................................................................ Columbus............................. .................................. Dayton ................................................................... Pittsburgh.......................................... ..................... Toledo .................................................................... Wheeling ................................................................ Other Cities............................................................ District.............................................................. W E A R IN G APPAR EL (16) Cincinnati................................................................ Cleveland................................................................ Other Cities............................................................ District............................................. .............. F U R N IT U R E (50) Cincinnati............................................................. Cleveland................................................................ Columbus................................................................ D ayton................................................................... Toledo............................................... ...................... Other Cities.......................................................... District.................................................................. C H A IN STORE* Drug*-^District ( 4 ) .......................................... Groceries— District ( 6 ) .................................... W H O L E SA LE G R O C E R IE S (41) Akron...................................................................... Cincinnati............................................................. Cleveland.............................................................. Erie......................................................................... Pittsburgh......... ................................................... Toledo.................................................................... Other Cities.......................................................... District...................... W H O L ESALE D R Y G O O D S ( 1 0 ) ........... W H O L E SA LE DRUGS (13) W H O L ESALE H A R D W A R E (1 7 )............ W H O L E S A LE SHOES ( 5 ) ........................... •Sales per individual unit operated. — 1 8 .9 — 2 .5 — U.6 — 5 .6 — 1 7 .0 — 10 9 — 14.3 — 8 .8 — 1 3 .3 — 1 5.3 — 9 .9 — 1 2 .7 — 9 .2 + 3 .9 — 1 4 .5 — 1 1 .8 — 11.3 — — — — — 7 .2 — 1 3 .7 — 8 .2 — 9 .8 — — — — — — 11.2 17 — 2 6 .7 — 3 7 .6 — 4 8 .5 — 2 7 .3 — 4 8 .9 — 4 6 .8 — 3 9 .9 — — — — — — — 2 5 .4 2 8 .3 3 0 .0 2 4 .9 4 8 .4 3 4 .7 3 1 .7 — 7 .6 + 6 .2 — — 1 .4 1 .1 — 2 5 .1 + 5 .6 — 1 6 .8 — 2 .8 — 4 .7 — 2 .5 — IS — 7 .7 — 2 8 .7 -9 .8 — 1 8 .6 — 3 7 .6 — + — — — — + — — — — — 19. 2 0 .1 9 .6 5 .2 4 .0 3 .9 0 .5 4 9 19 7 10 2 17 1 3 1 .3 — B ank D e b its (24 c it ie s ) ................................. C om m ercia l Failures ( N u m b e r ) ............... ’* ” (L ia b ilitie s )............ P ostal R eceipts (9 c it ie s ).............................. Sales— Life Insurance (O hio & P a .) . . . . ’ * — D epartm en t Stores (55 firm s) . . . ” — W holesale D rugs (13 firm s). . . . ” — *' D ry G o o d s (10 fi rm s) ” — ” G roceries (41 fir m s ). . ” — ” H ardw are (15 firm s). ” — ” All (8 2 )t ........................ ” — Chain D rugs (3 fir m s )* * .............. B u ilding C on tracts ( T o t a l ) .......................... ” ” (R e s id e n tia l).............. P ro d u ctio n — C oal (O ., W n. Pa., E. K y .) C em ent (O ., W . P a ., W , Vs M Elec. Pow er (O., Pa., K y .)* ” Petroleum (O., Pa., K y .)* . ” S h oes.......................................... ♦August. **P er individ ual unit operated, tln clu d e s 3 shoe firms. Sept., 1930 106 101 62 111 100 91 103 77 95 74 91 84 72 42 87 .) 160 137 108 82 Sept., 1929 126 103 79 119 113 102 114 108 101 91 105 89 135 73 97 160 158 124 110 Sept., 1928 118 109 84 110 96 101 107 106 102 94 105 93 142 94 87 188 135 115 110 Sept., 1927 113 102 73 117 102 95 112 104 102 100 107 96 137 125 88 150 123 114 122 Sept., 1926 106 106 43 116 95 96 111 108 113 103 114 103 118 96 106 149 123 105 126 Debits to Individual Accounts 5 weeks ending O ct. 22, 1930 113,851 B u tle r .................. 16,790 45,349 C in cin n a ti.......... 410,726 C le v e la n d ........... . 951,355 220,094 97,716 E r ie ....................... 44,207 F ra n k lin .............. 5,443 G reen sb u rg. . . . 22,579 H a m ilto n ............ 16,036 H o m e ste a d ......... 5,684 24,453 14,284 6,855 M id d le to w n 12,084 18,987 P itts b u r g h ......... 1,124,861 S p rin g fie ld ......... 22,799 Steubenville 10,384 T o l e d o ................. 208,514 12,941 48,140 Y o u n gsto w n 81.603 Z an e sv ille ........... 12,240 % change from 1929 — 2 2 .3 — 5 .2 — 2 7 .6 — 2 2 .7 — 1 8 .6 — 8 .4 — 1 9 .9 — 1 3 .0 — 3 2 .7 — 4 .7 — 2 1 .5 — 2 0 .5 — 1 1 .4 — 1 7 .6 — 2 2 .0 — 2 5 .9 — 2 7 .9 — 1 5 .8 — 1 7 .7 — 2 7 .6 — 1 7 .8 — 3 2 .4 — 2 9 .3 — 1 9 .7 — 2 1 .8 — 18.1 Y e a r-to date Oct. 22, 1930 969,035 126,460 448,675 3,683,792 7,991,485 1,788,936 899,047 390,002 50,395 188,793 142,974 45,106 245,288 123,367 56,997 107,982 163,521 9,747,243 223,687 101,910 1,783,709 116,073 431,896 677,301 99,057 30,602,731 Y e a r-to date O ct. 23, 1929 1,175,915 126,545 543,823 4,354,730 9,108,321 1,860,993 1,057,812 401,909 59,851 208,837 170,714 49,118 278,012 156,071 64,036 128,604 192,183 10,790,356 241,435 125,100 2,236,137 152,299 505,913 790,050 127,966 34,906,730 % change from 1929 — 1 7 .6 — 0 .1 — 1 7 .5 — 1 5 .4 — 1 2 .3 — 3 .9 — 1 5 .0 — 3 .0 — 1 5 .8 — 9 .6 — 1 6 .2 — 8 .2 — 1 1 .8 — 2 1 .0 — 1 1 .0 — 1 6 .0 — 1 4 .9 — 9 .7 — 7 .4 — 1 8 .5 — 2 0 .2 — 2 3 .8 — 1 4 .6 — 1 4.3 — 2 2 .6 — 12.3 11.6 — 2 5 .4 + 5 .3 — 1 5.2 + U .6 — 1 9 .9 — 5 .8 — 1 4 .7 — 1 3 .7 — 17 6 — 10.1 0 .5 15 9 1 0 .9 9 .9 7 0 .2 5 .9 1 0 .2 6 .0 — T o — 1 1 .9 — 1 4.3 — 4 4 .6 Building Operations A s h ta b u la ........... B a rb e rto n ........... C a n t o n ................ C in c in n a ti.......... C le v e la n d ........... C leve. S u b u rbs: Cleve. l ig h t s .. East C l e v e .. . . E u c lid ................ Garfield H ghts Sept., 1930 399,733 42,425 7,970 71,640 1,724,030 4,276,975 179,485 3,745 66,567 35,500 54,204 126,245 R o ck y R iv e r . . 81,730 Shaker H gh ts. 185,325 C o lu m b u s............ 400,300 C o v in g to n , K y . 37,250 179,058 Erie, P a .............. 243,086 H a m ilto n ............ 41,115 Lexington, K y .. 49.538 14,561 N e w a r k ............... 7,090 Pph . Pa.............. 666.719 S p rin gfie ld .......... 86,620 1,957,827 W heeling, W . Va. 302,044 Y o u n g s t o w n ... . 126,103 T o t a l ................ 11,366,885 (V alue o f P erm its) % Jan.change S ept., from 1929 1930 8,665,664 — 4 8 .3 — 1 9 .9 288,923 210,162 — 9 0 .3 1,281,007 — 4 7 .5 — 6 6 .4 32,627,512 + 1 0 4 .9 22,232,875 + 2 0 .4 — 8 7 .3 — 7 8 .4 — 7 0 .6 — 2 5 .3 — 2 9 .3 — 2 5 .0 — 7 5 .9 — 6 2 .5 — 7 8 .3 — 7 6 .3 — 3 9 .9 — 1 6 .8 + 8 6 .4 + 5 0 .7 — 8 4 .5 — 7 6 .7 — 3 8 .1 + 2 0 4 .0 + 4 6 6 .8 — 5 0 .9 — 3 1 .1 2,351,630 775,446 1,225,661 485,800 1,349,835 1,143,099 945,243 4,320,900 4,202,150 535,650 4,234,734 3,480,213 1,057,801 893,699 486,013 228,035 17,304,754 675,130 9,098,059 941,047 2,335,389 123,376,431 Jan.Sept., 1929 15,062,337 530,837 902,007 3,007,817 28,388,540 29,400,475 % change from 1929 — 4 2 .5 — 4 5 .6 — 7 6 .7 — 5 7 .4 + 1 4 .9 — 2 4 .4 2,124,095 1,644,533 2,022,532 1,031.350 1,306,997 2,115,997 1,301,713 5,071,150 8,550,300 1,125,775 4,862,600 5,548,156 1,366,742 1,820,962 370,515 578,430 25,581,20 7 1,658,211 11,849,451 1,310,597 3,964,988 162,498,314 + 1 0 .7 — 5 2 .8 — 3 9 .4 — 5 2 .9 + 3 .3 — 4 6 .0 — 2 7 .4 — 1 4 .8 — 5 0 .9 — 5 2 .4 — 1 2 .9 — 3 7 .3 — 2 2 .6 — 5 0 .9 + 3 1 .2 — 6 0 .6 — 3 2 .4 — 5 9 .3 — 2 3 .2 — 2 8 .2 — 4 1 .1 — 2 4 .1 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 8 Summary of National Business Conditions By the Federal Reserve Board Volume of factory production increased by about the usual seasonal amount in September, while factory employment increased somewhat less than in other recent years. The general level of prices, which had advanced during August, declined during September and the first half of October. At member banks in leading cities there was a liquidation of security loans and a considerable growth in commercial loans and in investments. Industrial Production and Employment Index numbers of production of manufactures and mineral adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-25 average = 100). Latest figures September, manufactures 90, minerals 94. Indexes of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1926 = 100, base adopted by Bu reau). Latest figures September, farm prod ucts 85.3, foods 89.2, other commodities 82.8. Output of factories increased seasonally in September, while that of mines declined. The Board’s seasonally adjusted index of production in factories and mines, which had shown a substantial decrease for each o f the preceding four months, declined by about one-half per cent in September. Production of iron and steel, lumber and cement decreased and the output of automobiles continued to be in small volume. Activity in the textile in dustries including cotton, wool and silk increased substantially and stocks of cotton cloth were further reduced. At bituminous coal mines there was an increase in output of more than seasonal amount, output of copper was larger than in August and there was a further increase in stocks o f cop per. Anthracite coal and petroleum production and shipments of iron ore declined. Employment in manufacturing establishments increased less than is usual at this season, the increase being chiefly in fruit and vegetable can ning, and in clothing industries. While reductions in number o f em ployees were reported for the iron and steel, automobile and lumber in dustries outside of factories, increased employment was reported in retail establishments and coal mines. Residential building increased materially in September, contrary to the usual seasonal trend, while the volume of contracts for commercial build ings and public works and utilities decreased. Total value of building contracts awarded, as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation showed little change during the month. In the first ten days of October there was an increase in the daily average volume of contracts awarded. Department of Agriculture estimates based on October 1 conditions indicate somewhat larger crops than the estimates made a month earlier for cotton, corn, oats, hay, potatoes and tobacco. Distribution Freight car loading continued at low levels during September the increases reported for most classes of freight being less than ordinarilv occur in this month. Dollar volume of department store sales increased by nearly 30 per cent, an increase about equal to the estimated seasonal growth. Wholesale Prices Monthly Averages o f weekly figures for re porting member banks in leading cities. Lat est figures are averages o f first three weeks in October. The index of wholesale prices on the average for the month o f SeDtember as a whole, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was at about the same level as in July and August. The movement of prices how ever, was upward in August, reflecting chiefly advances in the prices o f livestock and meats, while in September the movement was downward reflecting declines in a large number of commodities, including grains livel stock, meats, cotton and copper. In the first half of October there’ wer«> wide fluctuations in many agricultural prices, decreases in prices o f nonferrous metals and considerable increases in the prices of sugar and co f fee. Bank Credit Monthly rates In the open Y ork: Commercial paper rate paper. Acceptance rate on acceptances. Latest figures first 21 days in October. market in New on 4 to 6 month 90-day bankers* are averages of Security rity loans of reporting member banks in leading cities increased in the latter -ter part or of September, but receded rapidly in early October the th« decline reflecting a large volume of liquidation in loans to brokers* and dealers in securities. Commercial loans, which up to the last week in September had not shown the usual seasonal growth, increased by S I 5 0 000,000 in the following three weeks. The bank’s holdings of investment* continued to increase. In response to the seasonal demand for currency, outstanding volume o f reserve bank credit showed an increase of $30,000,000 on the average be tween the weeks ending September 20 and October 18. Money rates in the open market continued at low levels The yield on high grade bonds declined further until early in October, when bond »ric*« declined and there was a corresponding rise in yields.
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