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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions
in the
Fourth Federal Reserve District
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Vol. 11
Cleveland, Ohio, November 1, 1929
The irregularity of conditions recently commented upon
seems to be more in evidence than it was a month
ago. Business generally is above last year levels but
declines in several lines have been reported at a time of
normal seasonal expansion, and the trend is moderately
downward.
:
In two out of three highly important industries, de
clines in September from the preceding month were
reported. Iron and steel production receded faster in the
Fourth District than in other parts of the country be
cause of the decline in automotive requirements. Some
orders for railroad steel were placed but these were not
large enough to counteract the declines shown in other
lines. Building in September showed an increase of 3
per cent from August, contrary to the decline shown
for the country, but is still below 1928 levels. Automo
bile production declined in September for the fifth consecu
tive month and barely exceeded last year’s output for
that month.
Based on reports received from 80 large manufac
turers throughout the District, third quarter operations
were about on a par with the same period of 1928 but
were below the second quarter of this year which, how
ever, was unusually high.
Tire production has been
sharply curtailed as a result of large inventories. Sep
tember shoe production was slightly below 1928. Clothing
manufacturers have been operating at higher levels than
in previous months of this year. Radio and electrical
supply concerns continue at satisfactory levels.
Re
tail trade has held up well, reflecting in part the larger
payrolls o f manufacturing concerns. September depart
ment store sales were only 0.1 per cent larger but the
first nine months of this year showed an increase of 3.2
per cent compared with the same periods of 1928. Whole
sale trade continues to show gains and the trend for
the first part of the year has been upward.
Distribution, as shown by carloadings in the first two
weeks in October, registered declines from the same
weeks in 1928 for the first time since March. This bank’s
index, seasonally adjusted, has been higher than in
either 1928 or 1927 but the increase which usually takes
place in the fall has not occurred this year. As shown
on the chart, the spread between the carloading curve and
the Federal Reserve Board’s index of production increased
during latter 1928 and early 1929. Since there is no evi
Digitized
for of
FRASER
dence
a substantial increase in manufacturing or mer
No. 11
ken line—Monthly index of Industrial produc
tion; F. R. Board, (1923-1925 = 100). Latest
figure: September—121. Both curves adjusted
for seasonal yariations.
chandising inventories, the apparent increase in production
over distribution as reflected by carloadings may be occa
sioned, in part, by the increase in the proportion of water
shipments and drive-aways from auto plants, and to a
lesser extent by an increase in motor truck transporta
tion.
Interest rates are lower than they have been for several
months. Employment is well sustained and payrolls are
relatively large. In spite of the declines noted in some
lines, activity still compares favorably with 1928.
FINANCIAL
Reserve Bank Credit. The volume of credit extended
by the Fourth Federal Reserve bank during the month
ending October 23 increased from 127 millions to 162
millions and was contrary to the decline reported for
the entire country. Discounts have increased seasonally;
the amount of acceptances held increased from 16 mil
lions to 42 millions and was higher than at the ^same
time in 1928. Gold reserves declined from 275 millions
on September 25 to 223 millions on October 23, a result
of large transfers of funds and inter-district note settle
ments.
Note circulation declined 10 millions during
2
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
the month, contrary to seasonal movements, and was
29 millions less than in 1928.
Member Bank Credit. During the past month, total
loans and investments of reporting member banks de
clined slightly in this District but increased in other parts
of the country. Security loans for the entire system in
creased rapidly but in this District there has been a
decline of nearly $20,000,000. “ All other” loans, largely
commercial in character, increased locally and were higher
than at any time this year. The declining trend in in
vestments, noticed for over a year, continued during the
first three weeks of October. Deposits are lower than
they were last month and a year ago.
Money Rates. In the New York market, money rates
in October were easier generally than they have been at
any time this year. For the first 24 days of October, call
money averaged slightly over 6 per cent and on several
days was quoted at 5 per cent, the first time since August,
1928. Time money, (90-day), was quoted at 9-9% per
cent on October 1 but declined rapidly as the month
progressed, and reached I 1/* per cent on October 24. Little
interest has been shown in commercial paper, the rate
remaining unchanged at 6-6*4 per cent. Bankers’ ac
ceptances have increased seasonally in volume but the
rate (90-day, bid) which was
per cent in the first three
weeks of October, was lowered on October 24 to 5 per
cent. Loans at commercial banks continued at 6 per
cent, the most common rate in this District.
Debits, Savings, Failures. Debits to individual accounts
at 13 large cities in this District amounted to $2,860,492,000 in September as compared with $2,656,764,000 in
September, 1928, an increase of 7.7 per cent. There was
a decline of 4.3 per cent in the volume o f debits from
August to September which is contrary to the usual sea
sonal trend.
Savings deposits at 64 large banks in this District (the
decline in the number being due to consolidations) in
September totaled $1,048,802,130, a gain from August
of 0.8 per cent and from September, 1928 of 1.1 per cent.
Commercial failures in the Fourth District, according
to R. G. Dun and Company, numbered 150 in September
as against 117 in August and 159 in September, 1928. Li
abilities of these concerns were $3,470,945, a decline of 6.4
per cent from last year.
The following table gives the changes in the main items
of the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and reporting
member banks:
BANKING OPERATIONS
Federal Reserre Banka
Federal Reserve
Bank of Cleveland Federal Reserve System
(In Millions)
(In Millions)
Oct. 28, Oct. 24, Sept. 25, Oct. 23, Oct. 24, Sept. 25,
1929
1928
1929
1929
1928
1929
Gold Reserves .................. 223
260
275
3,035
2,646 2,998
91
77
82
796
912
944
Discounts .........................
Acceptances .....................
42
38
16
379
401
264
U.SL Securities ..............
28
84
29
136
231
152
Total bills and securities.. 162
148
127 1,887
1,548
1,875
Federal Reserve notes in
circulation ......................
176
205
186
l»f®7
Total deposits .................. 186
190
195 2,422 2,374 2,446
REPORTING MEMBER BANKS
Fourth District
United States
(In Millions)
(In Millions)
Oct. 23, Oct. 24, Sept. 25, Oct. 23, Oct. 24, Sept. 25,
1929
1928
1929
1929
1928
1929
Loans on securities ........
729
652
742 7,920
6,882 7,720
All others ......................... 832
817
826 9,580 9,089
9,524
Total loans ....................... 1,561
1,469
1,568 17,500 15,972 17,244
Investments ......................
618
718
628 5,395 5,953
5,438
Demand deposits .............. 1,021
1,039
1,031 13,314 13,165 13,072
Time deposit# .................. 986
954
947 6,883
6,845 6,829
MANUFACTURING, MINING
Iron and
Steel
Steel production in the PittsburghYoungstown-Cleveland district receded
faster in the month ended October 15
than at Chicago or in the East and South, due chiefly to
the restrained buying by the automotive industry. Bax,
sheet and strip mills especially felt the lack of automotive
requirements, though demand from most other users was
seasonally heavy. Model changes of several important
producers are usually announced somewhere between the
middle of November and the beginning of December. In
the past this has brought releases of steel orders, de
liveries beginning about November 15. Already a few
orders on this account have been received.
Pittsburgh District freight car builders are benefit
ing from the heaviest car buying movement in five
years. September orders for freight cars totaled 4,517,
bringing 1929-to-date buying up to 70,528, compared with
44,763 in all 1928. In the first half of October nearly
18,000 cars were placed, with 10,000 on inquiry and many
western roads contemplating purchases. This year un
doubtedly will be the best freight car year since 1924.
Structural steel activity is only moderate in the Fourth
District and competition for going work exceptionally
sharp. Pipe mills on large diameter, lapwelded, are busy,
but like other pipe producers are working off backlogs.
The rush of tin plate orders in September appears to
have anticipated some October needs. The lack of auto
motive requirements generally gives the District produc
tion a slacker look than is warranted, as otherwise, steel
needs are equal to a year ago.
Finished steel prices succumbed faster than expected
to the decline in demand. Autobody, black and galvan
ized sheets are now priced at two dollars per ton less
than in the third quarter to most users. Bars are off one
dollar per ton, with some sympathetic weakness in plates
and shapes. Steel boiler tubes have been advanced fo u r
dollars per ton, and the mills, in suggesting mininmm
resale prices for pipe on consignment, have effected ad
vances. Cold rolled strip and wide hot strip have been
shaded, chiefly to automotive users.
Pig iron contracting for the fourth quarter was briak
until mid-October, when most melters appeared covered
3
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
and buying slumped sharply. Shipments, however, re
mained at a high level. A large producer, after an
absence of several years, entered the market for 17,000
tons of basic and 15,000 tons of foundry iron. Pig iron
prices have been firm.
Iron and steel scrap prices
continue to sag, as offerings have exceeded requirements.
Both pig iron and steel ingots set production records in
September, though developing declines from August.
Pig iron's daily rate in September was 116,098 tons,
against 120,845 tons in August and 102,120 tons last
September. The nine month total of 32,649,182 tons also
was a record.
September's daily ingot average was
180,435 tons, compared with 182,491 tons in August and
165,916 tons last September. To October 1 production
was 43,243,404 tons, also a nine month record.
Declining prices have sent the Iron Trade Review
index of fourteen leading iron and steel products down
ward. The average for August was $36.54, for September
$36.50 and by mid-October the index was at $36.24
Coal
Bituminous coal production in Septem
ber in this District failed to show
the increase from August which nor
mally occurs at that time of year.
Output for the
month totaled 17,485,000 tons as against 18,000,000 tons
last month, a decline of 2.9 per cent. Compared with
the same periods of 1928, production in September and
for the first three quarters, showed increases of 10.7 and
15.2 per cent, respectively. Shipments. of coal at Lake
Erie ports also failed to show the increase in September
as compared with a year ago that has been shown
in earlier months of this year. The increase for the
month was only 7.3 per cent while that for the year-todate is 16.8 per cent.
Producers of soft coal in this District report condi
tions fairly satisfactory, which would indicate that the
industry has, to some extent, at least, recovered from
the depressed state of the past several years. Both
production and demand has increased seasonally but in
dustrial stocks remain low. Prices have shown an in
crease, the Coal Age average for September being $1.82%
a ton, which compares with $1.77 2/5 in August.
Soft coal production in the United States is estimated
at 44,480,000 tons in September, an increase of 12.5 per
cent from August and 6.4 per cent from September,
1928, on a daily average basis. In the first part of Octo
ber, output continued to expand seasonally and so far
this year production has exceeded the same period of 1928
by over 30,000,000 tons.
Anthracite fields, on the whole, are experiencing more
activity than in the preceding three months. Fall ex
pansion is proceeding normally, stimulated by an increase
in domestic consumption. Employment and payrolls in
both the anthracite and bituminous fields have been
showing an increase.
Automobiles
Automobile production in September
underwent another heavy drop, the fifth
consecutive month for which a de
cline from the preceding month was reported. The out
put of passenger cars and trucks totaled 415,382 units
as compared with 498,361 in August and 415,314 in
September, 1928. The decline from August, amounting
to 17 per cent, while being somewhat seasonal in char
acter, was more pronounced than the average of pre
ceding years.
Production for the first nine months amounted to 4,637,471 units, an increase from the same period of last
year of 34 per cent and surpassed the entire year of 1928
by 278,000 cars.
Domestic demand for all types of new passenger cars
has been unusually high and for the first part of this
year, at least, has kept pace with production. Registra
tions of passenger cars as reported by the Annalist for
the first eight months of 1929 showed an increase of 34
per cent compared with the same period of last year.
New registrations of Ford cars increased from 219,931
to 972,577 or 342 per cent during the first eight months
of the year and accounted for most of the increase shown
by all makes of cars which, excluding Ford, showed a
gain of only 0.1 per cent. Production of passenger
cars as shown by the Department o f Commerce increased
34.8 per cent during the same period, as compared
with 1928.
In the Fourth District, sales of passenger cars, as
shown by registrations, were irregular in September
and the increase from last year for Ohio was only 11
per cent. Industries dependent wholly or partly on the
automobile trade have felt a slackening in the demand
for products. Truck production was seasonally lower but
exceeded the same period of 1928.
NEW PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATION
September
1929
Akron ................
899
784
Canton ...............
Cincinnati ........ 1,491
Cleveland .......... 8,574
Columbus .......... 1,115
Dayton ..............
758
Toledo ................
814
Youngstown ......
642
Total ........... 10,022
Rubber and
Tires
Per cent
change
from
1928
—14.3
+26.8
4~ 4.9
+29.1
+10.4
+ 6.2
—14.0
+14.6
+10.8
Jan.-Sept.
1929
14,185
8,728
17,666
44,554
18,847
9,851
12,485
7,743
128,559
Jan.-Sept.
1928
9,995
6,214
18,957
81,870
9,878
7,275
10,319
5,756
95,259
Per cent
change
from
1928
+41.9
+40.5
+26.6
+89.8
+85.2
+85.4
+21.0
+84.5
+35.0
The preliminary report of dealers’
stocks of automobile tires showed that
the average dealer had 67.7 automobile
and truck casings on hand on October 1, as compared
with 64.8 in 1928 and 57.6 in 1927.
August production of pneumatic tires, the latest figure
available, as reported by the Rubber Manufacturers As
sociation, amounted to 4,354,353 casings, a decline from
July of 10.3 per cent and from August, 1928 of 22.5
per cent. For the first eight months of this year, pro
duction has exceeded the same period of 1928 by 7.9 per
cent. Shipments, totaling 5,883,561 units, exceeded pro
duction for the month, but were 6.6 per cent less than
in August, 1928. As a result, inventories have declined
for the third consecutive month and on September 1
amounted to 10,669,370 units or 1.8 months’ supply. The
above figures’ represent reports from 75 per cent of the
tire industry.
Rubber companies in this District have curtailed pro
duction rather sharply in response to large inventories.
Third quarter output was about 20 per cent below that
of the second quarter and was considerably under the
same period of 1928.
4
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Imports of crude rubber during September amounted
to 32,515 tons, which compares with 38,292 tons in August
and 46,662 tons in September, 1928. Stocks on hand and
in transit on October 1 increased slightly from the low
point for the year reported on September 1.
About the middle of October announcement was made
of an upward revision in the wholesale prices of all types
of tires. The increase was not a result of advances in
the prices of raw materials, which are lower than they
were a year ago, or operating expenses or because of
decreased stocks, but is an attempt to stabilize the prices
charged by dealers and, through a bonus system, in
crease the profits of the smaller dealer.
The preliminary report of the Bureau of
Census indicates that shoe production
declined 4.5 per cent in the Fourth
District and 6 per cent in the United States in Septem
ber, as compared with August. Compared with 1928 the
decline in the District in September was 0.1 per cent
for the month and 0.2 per cent for the first three
quarters.
Manufacturers in the vicinity of Cincinnati report
business during the third quarter in better volume both
as compared with last year and with the second
quarter of 1929. Factories are now showing a seasonal
decline but orders have been larger than usual because
o f the cooler weather in early October.
Retail sales, as indicated by reports from 31 depart
ment stores in the District, were larger in most cases
than they were last year. Women’s shoes increased 5.7
per cent and men's and boys’ shoes increased 1.2 per
cent. Children’s shoe sales, however, were 4 per cent
less than they were in September, 1928.
The hide and leather market has shown some improve
ment during the past month.
Hides averaged 19.50
cents per pound in September compared with 14.50, the
low for the year, reported in February. Sole leather
has also increased and averaged 56.5 cents in Septem
ber as compared with 55.0 in August.
watches report third quarter shipments slightly in excess
of 1928 but competition is cutting into profits. Stove
and equipment supply concerns report a slackening in
October, but third quarter business compared well with
1928.
Shoes
General
Manufacturing
Activity at industrial plants throughout the District in September and early
October was irregular but in most
instances continued at higher levels than were reported
for the same period of 1928. Declines in the automobile
industry upon which many local concerns are directly
dependent has accounted for part o f the slackening.
As reflected in consumption o f electrical energy, activity
in September was about 3 per cent less than it was
last year, large declines being shown by automobile, rub
ber and steel concerns. Manufacturers of paper and boxboard report business in better volume than in 1928 and
about the same as in the second quarter. Cork and lino
leum production slackened seasonally. Makers of elec
trical supplies and equipment report business in better
volume during the third quarter of 1929 than during the
second quarter or the same quarter of 1928. Radio con
cerns are operating at satisfactory levels. Automobile
accessory producers and some hardware concerns are, of
course, affected by the decline in automobile production.
This is also true of glass and paint producers who rely on
automobile business to any extent. The window glass
situation is still unfavorable.
Makers of high grade
Inventories
Much interest has been shown o f late
in the subject of inventories and their
progress in an attempt to determine
whether stocks of industrial concerns are increasing
abnormally. Conditions in different industries vary wide
ly. It is necessary for some concerns to carry large
inventories while others of an entirely different nature
can operate on a very small volume of stock.
The balance sheets of 77 industrial concerns which
have published regular semi-annual statements since
December 31, 1927, whose activities are diversified enough
to be considered representative, and for 36 concerns whose
figures are available back to December, 1926, were
analyzed. It was found that, though inventories have in
creased nearly 28 per cent in two and a half years for the
36 concerns, the ratio of inventories to total resources
(which was the only comparison possible to make due to
variations in the statements) as shown on the chart, has
actually declined.
The low point was reached in
June, 1928. During the past fiscal year inventories have
grown faster than resources, the increase in the ratio be
ing 3.5 per cent for the year, which is not unusual when
the rate o f activity that has been experienced is con
sidered.
AGRICULTURE
September weather, as a whole, was favorable for crop
growth and as a result the October crop estimates show
increases from a month ago for all principal crops in the
District, except wheat.
With the season practically
over it is evident that the crop yields are somewhat below
normal, the gains reported for some being more than
counteracted by declines in others. For the entire coun
try, crop prospects improved about two per cent during
the month but the composite prospective yield per acre
of 37 principal crops was 7.4 per cent below the yields o f
those crops last year and 4.1 per cent below the average
of the past ten years.
FOURTH DISTRICT
UNITED STATES
(000 omitted)
Estimate Estimate
Estimate Estimate
October 1, Sept. Per Cent October 1,
Sept. Per C#nt
1,1929 Change
1929
1929
1,1929 ChanjI
168,872
--------+1.3
Corn, bn- ........ 165,462
2,528,077
2,455,997
38,640 — 0.01
Wheat, bn......... 38,638
791,768
785,726
X0I
63,480
4-4.6
Oats, bu............. 66,377
1,226,573
1,204,987
--IS
6,627
+6.3
Hay, tons ........ 7,046
100,582
98,600
137,976
0.1
Tobacco, lbs.......138,067
1,472,525
1.462,321
--0 ?
+3.2
19,388
345,177
Potatoes, bn.......20,012
349,112 Z l t J
+
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
5
particularly good for curing that part o f the crop which
Corn promises a crop of 165,452,000 bushels in this
had to be cut because of the dry weather. Most of the
District as compared with 174,381,000 bushels, the esti
crop is now cut and is in various stages of curing but
mated production of 1928. The condition of the C T op is
the quality seems to be more varied this year than is
considerably below the ten-year average in all states but
usual. The part of the crop which was harvested early
Kentucky, which shows only a slight decline. The stand
has cured in good shape and is apparently making a good
has been very uneven this year being alternately affected
quality tobacco but the late maturing crop appears rough
by rain and drought. Much of the crop had matured
and coarse.
by October 1 due to favorable conditions in September,
barring frosts in scattered areas which occurred shortly
The Department of Agriculture's crop report of October
after the middle of that month. Fodder was generally
1 estimates the Fourth District's production at 138,067,short. Silo filling is practically done and much of the
000 pounds, as compared with last year's short crop of
com has been cut.
117.608.000 pounds. The increase from last year is found
Oat production throughout the District has been
largely in Kentucky, whose production (all types, only
very light, the estimate on October 1 being 66,377,000
parts of which are raised in this District) this year is
bushels, a decline of 38 per cent from the harvest of
estimated at 355,047,000 pounds, compared with 300,600,1928. Conditions improved somewhat during September
000 pounds harvested in 1928 and 369,695,000 pounds, the
but the acre yields are estimated to average about 30
five-year average. Ohio's 1929 crop is estimated at 38,bushels, compared with 37 bushels in 1928 and 35.6, the
654.000 pounds, slightly less than the five-year average
ten-year average. A good part of the decline in pro
but about 5,000,000 pounds more than was harvested in
duction, however, is due to a smaller acreage this year
1928. Pennsylvania is the only state in the District to
than was planted in 1928. It will be remembered that in
show a decline in production from last year. The total
that year the winter wheat crop was almost a total failure
crop is estimated at 45,708,000 pounds compared with
and oats were sown in the spring as a substitute crop.
52,730,000, the average of the past five years.
The present crop is of poor quality, though, and is very
The total supply of burley tobacco, the District’s most
light in weight in many sections due to dry weather.
important type, this year (stocks on hand plus production)
The District potato crop showed an increase of over
is not expected to differ materially from a year ago. The
624,000 bushels from the September 1 forecast and stood
increase in the crop is slightly larger than the decline in
at 20,012,000 bushels on October 1, a decline from last
stocks as reported on July 1 so that the available supply
year of 18 per cent. Bains aided the crop in some local
for 1929 is estimated to be about 13,000,000 pounds larger
ities but in others the vines had dried so badly that they
than it was in 1928.
were of little benefit. As a result, the crop is irregular,
some fields promising a rather good yield of fair size
BUILDING
and quality, while others will give only half a crop,
mostly small potatoes.
Building activity in the Fourth District in September,
Fruit prospects throughout the District show little as measured by contracts awarded, showed an increase
change from the forecasts made in September. The fol
from August of 3.3 per cent which is in contrast to the 9
lowing table shows the production of the principal fruits
per cent decline shown for the country as a whole. A c
as estimated on October 1, compared with the average
cording to the F. W. Dodge Corporation, September con
harvest of the past five years for the four states of the tracts awarded in this District totaled $64,140,129, a
District and for the entire country. It will be noted
decline from 1928 o f 6.3 per cent, which was much less
that, though the crop for the United States is below
than the 24 per cent decline reported for the 36 eastern
average, crop yields in this District are below those of the
states.
country.
As in the preceding months of this year, the total has
Estimate
Ave. Production Per cent change
been buoyed up by large contracts for commercial, in
October 1, 1929
1928-1927
from average
Apples (bu.)
dustrial, educational and public building projects which
2,881,000
8,609,000
—66.1
6,973.000
9,851,000
—39-4
have been started this year. Excluding the residential
3,616,000
—46.5
1,936,000
contracts, all other types of building showed an increase
7,076,000
6,320,000
—24.8
U. S.............
..140,637,000
183,452,000
—23.3
of 0.2 per cent in September and 7.3 per cent for the
Peaches (bu.)
Ohio ........... .
first nine months as compared with last year. Residential
1,346,000
494,000
—63.3
Penna...........
1,533,000
— 1.0
1,517,000
building in September and for the first three quarters
Kentucky ...
712,000
600,000
—16.7
W. Va..........
666,000
680,000
— 2.5
of this year was 23 per cent below the corresponding
U. S.............
.. 44,837,000
62,224,000
—14.1
Pears (bu.)
periods of 1928.
Ohio ...........
338,000
148.000
—66.2
Penna...........
Building permits, as shown in 27 cities in this District
272,000
571,000
—64.6
Kentucky ...
126.000
90,000
+40.0
declined
4.1 per cent in September and 18.2 per cent for
W . Va. ......
49,000
64,000
— 9.3
U. S.............
.. 20,368,000
20,211,000
-f 0.7
the first three quarters of 1929 compared with the same
Grapes (tons)
Ohio ...........
periods of last year. The large gains shown for some
16,100
20,521
—21.5
Penna...........
16,200
17,478
— 7.6
cities reflect non-resdential projects which have been
Kentucky ...
862
963
—10.5
W . Va..........
873
1.161
—24.8
started in 1929.
.. 1,996,272
2,260,171
—11.3
Building material and lumber supply dealers in this
locality have been adversely affected by conditions in the
Tobacco
The tobacco crop in this District showed
construction fields. Production has been curtailed and
little change during the past month.
Rains in September benefited the late- competition is keen for what little business there is and
sown fields to some extent but the weather was not
prices have declined. The Aberthaw index of industrial
6
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
building costs on October 1 was lower than it has been
for seven years.
Building Operations
(Value of Permits)
%
Jan.-Sept.
change
1929
from 1928
773,769
— 7 3.0
15,062,337
— 13.6
50,092
527,987
889,177
81,789
+ 1.6
136,582
— 27.9
3,007,817
5,138,415
+ 5 9 .0
28,388,540
+ 2 .9
2,087,250
29,400,475
14,904,879
371,426
715,238
2,990,856
27,468,995
40,998,000
%
change
from 1928
+ 1.1
+ 4 2 .2
+ 2 4 .3
+ 0 .6
+ 3.3
— 28.3
— 11.7
+ 2 5 .7
+ 175.5
+ 12.7
— 64.5
+ 19.6
+ 7 3 .3
+ 9 8 .8
+ 3.5
+ 113.5
+ 3.3
+ 1.3
— 72.1
— 57.7
— 73.2
— 82.5
— 5 .4
— 32.2
— 35.3
— 62.8
— 30.6
2,124,095
1,644,533
2,022,532
1,031,350
1,306,997
2,017,181
1,301,713
5,071,150
8,550,300
1,060,975
4,862,600
5,548,156
1,366,742
1,820,962
370,515
578,430
24,306,602
1,658,211
11,849,481
1,310,597
4,034,658
3,484,470
655,730
1,820,781
1,335,650
4,390,111
2,081,829
928,968
6,106,510
13,801,650
1,308,050
9,453,058
3,039,384
1,700,706
1,238,761
354,354
1,203,433
33,323,863
1,155,527
14,037,225
1,503,735
6,668,03 5
— 39.0
+ 1 5 0 .8
+ 1 1 .1
— 22.8
— 70.2
— 3.1
+ 4 0 .1
— 17.0
— 38.0
— 18.9
— 4 8 .6
+ 8 2 .5
— 19.6
+ 4 7 .0
+ 4 .6
— 51.9
— 27.1
+ 4 3 .5
— 15.6
— 12.8
— 39.5
161,114,113
197,041,224
— IS. 2
Sept.
1929
A kron.................
Ashtabula.........
Barberton.........
C anton...............
C incinnati.........
Cleveland..........
Cleve. suburbs:
Cleve. Hghts.
East C lev e...
E uclid............
Garfield Hghts.
L akew ood... .
Parm a............
R ocky River.
Shaker Hghts.
Columbus..........
Covington, K y.
D a yton..............
Erie, P a .............
H am ilton...........
Lexington, Ky.
Lim a...................
Newark..............
Pittsburgh, Pa..
Springfield........
T o le d o ...............
Wheeling, W. Va.
Y ou n gstow n ... .
T o ta l..............
149,100
29,382
308,072
120,700
72,559
178,665
109,039
767,500
1,066,850
172,000
756,720
404,690
49,429
26,573
9,665
45,885
2,860,677
139,935
643,956
53,292
256,590
16,489,176
— 4.1
Jan.-Sept.
1928
TRADE
Retail
Retail trade, as shown by sales of 60
large department stores throughout the
District was 0.1 per cent larger in
September than it was in 1928. Comparatively large
increases shown in Toledo and Cleveland counteracted the
declines shown in all other large cities. For the first
three quarters of the year, sales have exceeded the same
period of 1928 by 3.2 per cent.
Sales of clothing, both in the department stores and in
the wearing apparel shops, were in small volume in
September than they were a year ago, the decline in
15 apparel stores for the month being 6.8 per cent and
for the year-to-date 1.4 per cent.
Retail furniture sales increased in September in Cleve
land and Columbus but declined in other cities and in the
District, as a whole. Collections at all retail stores are
better than they were a year ago.
Wholesale
Trade
Compared with the first three quarters
of 1928, sales of all reporting wholesale
lines, except shoes, have shown gains
this year. The increases, while not large, are in contrast
to the declines which have been shown for the past sev
eral years, and have reversed the trend temporarily, at
least. The index of all wholesale sales for the past three
months was higher than it has been since 1925.
The gain from August to September this year was
not as large as in former years, due to the fact that
some orders were placed earlier than usual which tended
to bolster up the sales of the summer months.
September sales, compared with 1928 were as follows:
dry goods, +1.7; drugs, +6.2; groceries, +1.7; hard
ware, — 4.5; and shoes, — 16.7 per cent.
7
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Fourth District Business Statistics
(All figures for Fourth District unless otherwise specified)
Sept.
1928
Sept.
1929
Bank Debits (24 cities)
Millions of dollars
SaJ&8i
,Pr?pbanka)
Losit.8 JCend of month)
Ohio (39
Thousands of dollars
Penndyvania (25 banks)
Total ('64 banks)
Commercial Failures—Number
Actual Number
Thousands of dollars
_
**
“
—Liabilities
Postal Receipts—9 cities
Sales—Life Insurance—Ohio and Pa.
—«rCpt*. Stores (60 firms)
—Wearing Apparel (IS firms)
—Furniture (45) firms
„ —Wholesale Grocery (41 firms)
_ —
"
Dry Goods (12 firms)
—
“
Hardware (1/ firms)
—
“
Drugs (13 firms)
Building Permits, Valuation—27 cities
Contracts —Total, 4th District
—Residential, 4th District
Production —Pig Iron, U. S.
Thousands of tons
—Steel Ingots, U. S.
—Automobiles, U. S.
Actual Number
Passenger Cars
Trucks
**
—Bituminous Coal, 4th District
Thousands of tons
—Cement: Ohio, W.Va., Wn. Pa.
t
**
“ barrels
“
— Electric Power: Ohio, Pa., Ky.
Millions of k.w. hrs.
4‘
— Petroleum: Ohiof Pa., Ky.
Thousands of barrels .
“
—Shoes, 4th District
“
** pairs
*«
—Tires
**
** casings.
Bituminous Coal Shipments (from Lake Erie Ports)
“
" tons
Iron Ore Receipts (at Lake Erie Ports)
1 9 months average
* August
3 January-August
* Figures Confidential
,
% change
from 1929
3,428
3,200
+ 7.1
774,232
274,570
1,048,802
150
3,471
3,078
94,265
25,561
1,570
762,707
275,196
1,037,903
159
3,716
2,855
80,629
25,526
1,685
1,145
6,732
2,564
2,273
1,682
17,193
67,748
16,167
3,064
4,148
+ 1.5
1,102
6,758
2,608
2,171
1,787
16,489
64,140
12,470
3,483
4,511
364,786
49,681
17,485
1,919
1,327*
2,297*
Jan.-Sept.
1928
% change
from 1928
29,398
+ 9.2
32,115
+
747,484*
273,890*
1,021,263*
1,503
42,632
27,083
927,696
211,827
14,063
9,465
54,450
18,123
19,043
15,222
197,041
508,926
172,354
27,784
36,931
+ 3.7
1.2
+ 3.1
— 4.8
—33.4
— 4.1
— 5.3
—22.9
+13.7
8.8
775,362*
277,199*
1,052,662*
1,431
28,404
27,683
1,025,525
218,606
13,862
9,561
55,595
18,545
19,372
16,029
161,114
493,522
132,301
32,649
43,240
358,615
56,423
15,797
2,267
1,130*
2,131*
+ 1.7
—11.9
+10.7
—15.4
+17.4
+ 7.8
4,005,177
618,702
153,262
12,477
9,9093
16,8673
+30.9
+52.4
+15.2
5,658"
4,680
5,827
—22.5
+ 7.3
+13.6
3,059,938
405,963
132,986
13,558
8,756'
16,222*
4
39,5623
25,504
27,342
4
4
4,386
5,023
6,619
J,nf92P
9t-
—
+
0.2
1.1
— 5.7
—
6.6
—
6.8
+ 7.8
+16.9
4 - 0.1
—
+
+
—
3.8
0.4
1.7
4.5
+ 6.2
0 .1
—
*
42,695*
29,783
36,576
+
+ 2. 2
+10.5
+ 3.2
1.4
+ 1.0
+ 2.1
+ 2.3
+ 1.7
+ 5.3
-18.2
— 3.0
—23.2
+17.5
+17.1
—
8 .0
+13.2
+ 4.0
—
0.2
+ 7.9
+16.8
+33.8
Fourth District Business Indexes
Retail and Wholesale Trade
(1929 compared with 1928)
Percentage
Increase or Decrease
SALES
SALES
STOCKS
Sept.First
Sept.Sept.
9 mos.
Sept.
DEPARTMENT STORES (60)
Akron................................................
— 5.7
+ 6.1
— 5.4
Cincinnati.............................................
— 1.8
+ 2.5
+ 4.0
+ 5.2
Cleveland..............................................
+ 4.2
+ 1.8
Columbus..........................................
— 3.9
+ 0.03
— 2.9
Dayton....................1111111............
— 0.5
+ 0.4
— 5.1
Pittsburgh.................111111.... 1.1. .
— 1.9
+*2.2
— 1.7
Toledo...............
+
5
+ 44.5
+ 8.9
— 4.6
wheeling............. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; *
T— -9.1
— 3.3
— 3.9
Other Cities...........
— 1.0
+ 5.1
— 2.6
+ 0.1
+ 3.2
— 0.9
WEARING APPAREL (18)
Cincinnati...............
— 8.6
— 5.4
+ 6.0
Cleveland.............
— 3.0
+ 4.0
— 12.9
Other Cities.........
— 9.2
—
3.0
—
0.4
District.................. ..................
— 6.8
— 1.4
— 3.7
FURNITURE (45)
Cincinnati...............
— 3.0
+ 4.6
Cleveland.............*
+ 6.0
+ 4.3
Columbus............
+28,2
+ 3.5
—28.3
—
9.3
Toledo................. . [ ........................
—22.5
+ 3.2
Other Cities...........
—
10.3
+
4.5
District....................‘ *.........................
— 3.8
— 1.0
CHAIN STORE*
Drugs-^District (3)................
— 4.2
— 3.4
Groceries— District (3)
+ 3.9
+ 1.5
WHOLESALE GROCERIES (41)
+
2.6
+ 2.4
Cincinnati............. 11!.*......................
+ 4.6
+ 3.4
Cleveland.............. ...............................
—
3.2
—
0.9
Erie........................111111111..............
—, ln8.4;
— 6.5
Pittsburgh......... 11...............................
+10.5
+
5.9
Toledo. ..............ii i;
............. —
+1?*
?
3.4
+ 2.1
Other Cities............. ...........................
+
3.9
+ 5.0
District.................. ..........................
+ 2.1
— 4.3
RSXiGoops •a j>::: ++ 0.4
1.7
+ 2.3
— 8.0
+ 6.2
+ 5.3
— 4.5
+ 1.7
+ 9I0
WHOLESALE SHOES (5)
....!!
— 16.7
—16.3
—22.5
♦Sales per individual unit operated.
(1923-1925 = 100)
Sept. Sept.
1929
1928
Bank Debits (24 cities)........................ 126
118
Commercial Failures (Number)............ 103
109
“
**
(Liabilities).........
79
84
Postal Receipts (9 cities)..................... 119
110
Sales— Life Insurance (Ohio and Pa.). . 113
96
“ — Department Stores (59 firms). . . 102
101
“ —Wholesale Drugs (13 firms)....... 114
107
“ ■—“
Dry Goods (12 firms) 107
105
“ —
“
Groceries (41 firms).. 101
102
“ —
**
Hardware (15 firms). 101
94
“ —
“
All (85 firms)!.......... 105
103
" — Chain Drugs (3 firms)**............
89
93
Building Contracts (Total).................... 135
142
(Residential)....
73
94
Production—Coal (O., Wn. Pa., E. Ky.)
97
87
— Cement (O., Wn. Pa.,W.Va.) 160
188
—Elec. Power (O.. Pa., Ky.)* 158
135
°
—Petroleum (O., Pa., Ky.)*. 124
105
110
—Shoes................................. 110
♦August
**Per individual unit operated
tlncludes 3 shoe firms
Sept.
1927
113
102
73
117
102
95
112
104
102
100
104
96
137
125
88
150
123
114
122
Sept.
1926
106
106
43
116
95
97
111
108
113
103
111
103
118
96
106
149
123
105
126
Sept.
1925
103
90
33
114
93
89
108
109
111
103
109
103
117
108
102
135
104
101
116
Debits To Individual Accounts
Akron...........
Butler...........
Canton.........
Cincinnati. . .
Cleveland__
Columbus.. . .
Connellsville.
Dayton.........
Erie..............
Franklin.......
Greensburg. .
Homestead...
Lexington.. ..
Lima.............
Lorain..........
Middletown..
Oil City.......
Pittsburgh. ..
Springfield. . .
Steubenville..
Toledo..........
Warren.........
Wheeling. . ..
Youngstown..
Zanesville___
Total.........
5 weeks
ending
Oct. 23,
1929
146,481
17,712
62,629
531,088
1,168,383
240,360
4,840
121,947
50,814
8,083
23,691
7,146
27,589
17.333
8,794
16,306
26.334
1,336,472
27,698
14,351
253,812
19,138
68,089
101,619
15,660
4,316,369
change
from
1928
1929 to
date (Dec.
28-Oct. 23)
1928 to
date (Dec.
26-Oct. 24)
12.8
1,232,302
132,337
570,553
4,613,140
9,654,045
I,963,480
39,432
1,113,269
418,022
62,068
218,785
50,860
294,870
166,164
66,560
134,183
200,239
II,331,631
256,154
130,299
2,384,368
158,720
531,662
838,885
134,565
1,122,173
115,243
502,035
4,508,851
8,511,658
1,706,008
43,483
986,505
377,186
54,598
210.734
44,639
245,614
160.735
64,901
130,097
174,065
10,061,920
231,559
119,625
2,777,180
141,622
506,796
744,127
135,498
+ 4.5
36,706,593
33,676,852
—
0.6
+17.5
12.1
+ 2.7
6.1
+21.3
— 16.2
+ 7.5
+ 3.5
+19.3
— 3.8
+19.0
+13.7
—14.2
+13.5
+13.8
+25.0
+
+
++ 0.04
8.2
+ 6.4
—23.2
++ 7.6
1.1
+ 6.1
—
change
from
1928
+ 9.8
+14.8
+13.6
+ 2.3
+13.4
+15.1
— 9.3
+ 12.8
+ 10.8
+13.7
+ 3.8
+13.9
+20.1
+ 3.4
2.6
+ 3.1
+15.0
12.6
+10.6
+ 8.9
—14.1
12.1
+ 4.9
+12.7
+ 0.7
+
+
+
+ 9.0
s
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Summary of National Business Conditions
By the Federal Reserve Board
Industrial activity increased less in September than is usual at this
season. Production during the month continued above the level of a year
ago and for the third quarter of the year it was at a rate approximately
10 per cent above 1928. There was a further decline in building contracts*
awarded. Bank loans increased between the middle of September and the
middle of October reflecting, chiefly, growth in loans on securities.
Index numbers of production of manufactures
and minerals, adjusted for seasonal variations
(1923-25 average = 100). Latest figures, Sep
tember, manufactures— 122, minerals— 119.
M inions
or d o lla rs
LUCKS or DOUAfiS
Monthly averages of daily figures for 12 F e d
eral reserve banks. L a te s t figu re s are averages
of the first 19 days in O c to b e r.
MEMBER BANK CRE DIT
All Other Loans^
' ...
Loans on Securities
Investments
1927
1928
Monthly averages of weekly figures for report
ing member banks in leading cities. Latest
figures are averages of the first three weeks
in October.
Monthly rates in the open market in New
York: commercial paper rate on 4 to 6 month
paper and acceptance rate on 90 day bankers
acceptances. Latest figures are average of
first 23 days in October.
Production
Output of iron and steel declined further in September, contrary to the
seasonal tendency; there was a sharp decrease in output of automobiles and
automobile tires and a smaller than seasonal increase in activity in the
textile and shoe industries, which continued to produce at a high rate in
comparison with the preceding year. Meat packing plants were more active
than in August. Factories increased the number of their employees during
September and payrolls were also slightly larger.
Output of coal showed a substantial increase from August and the
average daily production of copper mines was somewhat larger. Iron ore
shipments declined seasonally and petroleum output was reduced for the first
time in several months.
For the first half of October reports indicate a further reduction in
steel plant operations, a continued increase in production of bituminous coal
and some increase in petroleum output, following a moderate decrease during
September. Building contracts awarded in September declined seasonally
from August and were substantially below the corresponding month in any
year since 1924. For the third quarter, the volume of contracts was 6 per
cent less than a year ago. During the first three weeks of October, contracts
continued substantially below the level of last year.
October estimates by the Department of Agriculture indicate a cotton
crop of 14,915,000 bales, 3 per cent larger than last year; a com crop o f
2,528,000 bushels, 11 per cent smaller than the crop of a year ago and 8
per cent below the five year average; and a total wheat crop of 792,000,000
bushels, 12 per cent below last year but only slightly under the five year
average.
Distribution
Freight car loadings increased by slightly less than the usual seasonal
amount in September and continued to be larger than a year ago. In the
first two weeks of October, car loadings were smaller than in the corre
sponding weeks of 1928.
Department store sales in leading cities increased seasonally during
the month of September and were 2 per cent larger than a year ago. For
the third quarter, as a whole, sales of the reporting stores exceeded those o f
the third quarter of last year by 3 per cent.
Prices
Wholesale prices showed little change from August to September, ac
cording to the index of the Bureau of Labor statistics. Prices of meats and
livestock declined considerably, while prices of grains advanced. The prices
of raw silk, cotton and cotton goods were higher in September and the price
of coal increased, while prices of iron and steel products, tin, gasoline and
cement were lower. During the first three weeks of October, prices declined
for a considerable number of commodities, including wheat, flour, hides, steel,
tin, cotton, silk and wool.
Bank Credit
Between the middle of September and the middle of October, there was
a slight increase in the volume of loans and investments of member banks ^
in leading cities. The banks’ loans on securities increased rapidly, while all*
other loans, including loans for commercial and agricultural purposes, de
clined somewhat after reaching a seasonal peak on October 2. Security
holdings of the reporting banks continued the decline which has been almost
uninterrupted for more than a year.
.
At the Reserve banks there was little change m the volume of credit
outstanding during the four week period ending October 19. Further
increase in the holdings of acceptances by the Federal Reserve banks was ac
companied by a decline in discounts for member banks, largely at the Fed
eral Reserve Bank of New York.
.
Open market rates on bankers’ acceptances and on prime commercial
paper were unchanged during the last half of September and the first three
weeks of October. On October 23, rates on bankers’ acceptances declined by
one-eighth per cent to a 5 per cent level for the principal maturities Rates
on demand and time loans on securities declined during the first half o f
October.
@FedFRASER