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MONTHLY MAY 1952 CONTENTS Keview Bituminous C o a l ........................ . 1 The Retail Credit Survey of 1951 . 6 Outlook for Tin . 8 . 9 ........................ Ohio Cross Sections, V (Supplement) F I N A N C E 0 I N D U S T R Y • A G R I C U L T U R E • TRADE FOURTH Vol. 34— No. 5 FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Cleveland 1, Ohio Bituminous Coal coal is the nation’s major source of energy, contributing around two-fifths of the United States’ energy requirements in the past six years. In addition to supplying electricity, steam power, and heat, this mineral fuel is the source of many modern chemical advances, yielding such diver sified products as explosives, sulfa drugs, fertilizer, aspirin, nylon, ammonia, lucite and polythene plastic materials, DDT, tar, perfume, and a host of others. Despite the setbacks coal has suffered in the com petitive fuels market since the end of World War II, increasing demands for energy and new uses in the chemical industry indicate that the bituminous coal industry is assured of a large market for many decades to come. Traditionally, bituminous, or soft, coal has sup plied the bigger part of the country’s energy require ments and will continue to do so for many years to come. Over 95 percent of the country’s coal reserves still remain in the ground — about 1*4 trillion tons of bituminous coal and nearly 2 /^ trillion tons of coal of all ranks. Recent estimates of the U. S. Geo logical Survey show that ultimately recoverable re serves of bituminous coal, assuming that half the coal will be lost in the mining process, will last over 11 centuries if consumed at the same rate prevailing during the 1940-1950 decade. On the same basis, the nation’s petroleum and natural gas reserves are good for one or two generations. Actually, the prob able life expectancy of these reserves is quite different from that suggested by these simple ratios. Never theless, the fact remains that bituminous coal consti tutes 55 percent of the nation’s ultimately recoverable mineral-fuel reserves on a total B.T.U. basis while B itu m in o u s another 32 percent is anthracite, subbituminous coal, and lignite. One-tenth of this recoverable “energy” lies beneath the Fourth District in the form of bitu minous coal. Fourth District The huge bed of bituminous coal that underlies the Fourth District Coal Field is part of the great Appalachian BITUM INOUS COAL FIELDS of the United States . . . underlying the Fourth District are about 225 billion tons of bituminous coal or roughly 18% of the country’s total bituminous coal reserves. Source: U. S. Geological Survey. Page 2 Monthly Business Review BITUMINOUS COAL AND LIGNITE PRODUCTION 1890 -1951 . . . nearly two-fifths of the nation’s coal supply is mined in the Fourth District. A half century ago, the District’s share was almost 50%. Source: Bureau of Mines. E. Estimated. Fourth District estimate based on Defense Solid Fuels Administration estimate for the United States. coal field that extends — like a giant exclamation point — from northwestern Pennsylvania to central Alabama. The Fourth District portion alone contains about 225 billion short tons of bituminous coal or over 9 times the amount of soft coal mined in the United States during the past 150 years. About half of this coal is recoverable according to past mining methods. Getting the coal out of the ground and to market is a gigantic task. In 1947, the peak production year, Fourth District mines turned out 247 million short tons of soft coal or 39 percent of total U. S. output.1 District coal production in that year was valued at over a billion dollars at the mine mouth while last year’s output of 200 million short tons was twice the tonnage produced at the nation’s steel mills. A brief description of the coal extraction process and the industry’s principal customers will give some idea of the magnitude and importance of bituminous coal industry to the national economy. Production The pick and shovel can no longer be Mechanized used to symbolize the modem coal miner. Ninety-eight percent of today’s output is mechanically mined and three-fourths is loaded mechanically. In the modern underground mine, four steps are usually required to get the coal moving to the surface. First, a machine akin to a large chain saw on wheels undercuts the coal seam. (i) Bureau of Mines data on the bituminous-coal output in Eastern Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania roughly approximate and are referred to herein as the Fourth District. Actually, only about 80 percent of Pennsylvania’s bituminous production is attributa ble to the District while about 3 percent of West Virginia’s ton nage should be included in the District total. The net effect is to overstate the District tonnage data about 10 percent. These three areas are used, however, because current data are available for them whereas there is a lag in the availability of detailed county data. M ay 1, 1952 Big electric drills then bore holes in which charges of compressed air or specially designed explosives are set off. The undercut provides a space for movement enabling the charge to break out the coal along a predetermined line of least resistance. Once the coal is broken loose, huge mobile loaders move in and load the coal on electrically driven shuttle cars. These cars link the loading machine with the main transport system — an underground electric railroad or an endless conveyor belt. Mechanical monsters that make one operation out of the traditional four-step cycle of undercutting, boring, blasting, and loading have been recently developed. Called continuous mining machines, they can produce prodigious amounts of coal in an hour. In fact, they turn the coal out faster than the rest of the system can remove it. In the only case where a new mine was laid out and equipped to make use of the continuous mining machine, it was able to operate only 60 percent of the total working time. While this compares favorably with the much lower 25 to 30 percent of total time that conventional machines are operated, it does not make full use of the new machine’s potential. At least 100 continuous mining machines were in use in 1950, producing about 2 percent of the na tion’s soft coal. Faster transport methods, such as extensible belt conveyors, are being developed to form an elastic link between the new machines and the main transport system. In the surface mines, commonly called strip or open-pit mines, all the coal is produced mechanically. Huge power shovels and draglines, some of which move 50 cubic yards of earth at one bite, remove an average of 32 feet of overburden to get at the coal seam, sometimes clearing away as much as 100 feet of soil and rock. Mechanical sweepers then clean off the bared coal seam, the coal is broken up and scooped into large trailer trucks. The extensive use of machinery possible above ground and the relative simplicity of the operation has caused a shift towards this type of mining in recent years. The production process is not complete when the coal reaches the surface. About one ton out of every three is passed through coal preparation plants where it is cleaned, crushed, and sized. It may also be treated with chemicals to allay dust. Labor costs constitute about 60 percent of the cost of coal at the mine mouth and are one of the main reasons for the rapid growth of strip mining in recent years. In the underground mines, output per man-hour increased 18 percent between 1939 and 1949 while it remained virtually unchanged in the strip mines. Over the same period, miners’ aver age hourly earnings jumped 119 percent. But in 1949, a man employed in stripping operations still Productivity and Labor Costs M ay 1, 1952 Monthly Business Review produced about three times as much coal in a day as a man working underground. It is not surprising then to find that, over the same decade, the percent age of total bituminous output coming from surface mines jumped from 10 to 24 percent of total United States production and from less than one-twentieth to more than one-fourth of Fourth District output. Much of the nation’s coal lies too deep for strip ping and must be recovered by tunneling under ground. The industry realizes that traditional meth ods can not be extended much further nor substan tially improved upon. New machines, such as the continuous mining machine, have to be developed before any sharp gain in productivity at under ground workings can be realized. Development of the continuous mining machines (over ten different types are in production or under development) is the first step in evolving a continuous mining process underground. Sponsors of one of these new machines claim that it can cut and load up to two tons of coal a minute with a crew of four to seven men, or a maximum potential of 100 tons per man-shift. It has been estimated that, even with the present haul age systems, today’s machines are capable of produc ing 50 tons of coal per man-day as compared with the present underground average of about 5.5 tons. The extension of the newer, more efficient methods of recovery to more mines will raise productivity, lower costs per ton, and improve the industry’s posi tion in today’s highly competitive fuels market. Moving coal from the mine to market is a gigantic task. Over one-quarter of all revenue freight carried by the na tion’s railroads is bituminous coal. In 1950, 362 million tons of coal were carried by the Class I rail roads, coal that originated in some 8,000 mines located throughout the country. Railroad cars and train movements must be scheduled to keep this out-pouring of coal attuned to shifts in demand at coal’s varied and scattered markets. Although the railroads carry the bulk of the coal to market, water carriers and trucks are slowly nibbling away at this market. In 1949, they carried 16 percent of the total coal tonnage, nearly double their share in the early ’Thirties. Moving coal is expensive too. Sometimes the cost of transporting a ton of coal to the consumer ex ceeds the amount the producer receives for it at the mine. In 1950, the average value per ton received by the bituminous producer was $4.85 and the aver age railroad freight charge was $3.09 as compared with an average wholesale price of $8.60. Thus, in 1950, production costs accounted for 56 percent of the wholesale price and transport costs for 36 percent. Two recent proposals would reputedly reduce coal transport costs. The first is a belt conveyor that would haul coal from the Ohio River area to Transportation Page 3 Youngstown and Cleveland and carry iron ore in the opposite direction. Riverlake Belt Conveyor Lines, Inc., of Akron has tried unsuccessfully to get the common-carrier privilege — the right of eminent domain — in the Ohio Legislature. Chief opposition has come from existing transportation agencies. Oper ating costs of this project have been said to be com parable to those of petroleum pipelines. The second project, also in Ohio, is a coal pipe line planned by Pittsburgh Consolidation Coal Com pany. Pilot plant studies indicated that it would work so well that a full-scale, three-mile demonstra tion line was built at Georgetown (near Cadiz), Ohio. Finely crushed coal mixed with water is pumped through the pipeline. Pertinent engineering data will be gathered from this full-scale model and, if they substantiate the earlier studies, indications are that the company plans to extend the line to general commercial use. Last year the Ohio Legis lature granted coal pipelines the same right of eminent domain given to other pipelines carrying oil, gas, and water. Coal's Bituminous coal’s biggest customers are Customers industries — led by the steel industry, the electric power utilities, and the rail roads. They ranked in that order in 1951. In addi tion, bituminous coal is exported and a small amount is used as fuel aboard ocean-going vessels. Over one-fourth of all the soft coal consumed in the United States last year was used by iron and steel producers, mostly in the form of coke. One ton of coal, in the form of coke, is needed to produce three-quarters of a ton of pig iron. So far, no substi tute for coke in the manufacture of pig iron has been found and rising steel output necessitates the transformation of increasing amounts of soft coal into coke for use in the nation’s blast furnaces. The modern coke oven yields many things besides coke. Oven gas recovered in the carbonization proc ess is used to heat the coke ovens and as a fuel in other parts of the steel-making process. Tar, am monia, benzene, napthalene, and other coal-chemicals are recovered and sold to other industries where they become the basis for many essential products. Sulpha drugs, explosives, food colors, fertilizers, plas tics, and perfumes are only a few of the many prod ucts derived from these coal-chemical materials. Their value, added to the value of the coke and gas pro duced, raises the total value of coke-oven products above one billion dollars a year. Before too many years, the iron and steel industry may be supplanted by the electric utilities as the nation’s leading coal consumer. In recent years, nearly half of the electric power output in the United States was generated from coal. As the accompany ing chart shows, rising electric power output has been closely paralleled by the utilities’ intake of soft CONSUMPTION OF BITUMINOUS COAL AND LIGNITE IN THE UNITED STATES, BY CONSUMER CLASS 1933 - 1951 Page 4 M ay 1, 1952 k tiL . o r N E T TONS M IL . OF N E T TO N S 200 r B lL .O r KW H -----1600 200r -IR O N & STEEL IN DU S TR Y ELEC TR IC POWER U T I L I T I E S ■uuiiUti COAL CONSUMED 1 ■“ STEEL & ROLLING 1 M ILLS ^ A 1933 ’ 34 >36 '3 8 >40 »42 >44 *46 »48 ’ 50 ’S 2 E ~ . . . bituminous coal consumption, in the form of coke, is highest on record, having paralleled the rise in pig iron production. However, the amount of coal used for heat and power at other points of the steel-making process has declined as other forms of energy have replaced it. MB — >50 . . . coal consumption for the generation of electric power will reach a new all-time high this year despite the grow ing use of natural gas. Source: Bureau of Mines; Federal Power Commission. Source: Bureau of Mines; American Iron 8c Steel Institute. 2,000 1,000 . . . coal-burning steam locomotives pulled only 36% of the gross ton-miles of freight hauled in 1951 as compared with 70% in 1946. Source: Bureau of Mines; Interstate Commerce Commission; Associa tion of American Railroads. M IL . OF N E T TO N S . . . other industrial users of coal are also switching to competing fuels—mainly gas. In 1951, coal consumption of these users was scarcely larger than prewar. Source: Bureau of Mines; Bureau of the Census. M IL. OF N E T TO N S 200r R E S ID E N T IA L 1200 CO M ME RCI AL IILLIONS OF DWELL It COAL CONSUMED BY RESIDENTIAL & COM M E R C IA L USERS 1933 *34 *36 »38 M0 '42 »46 »48 »50 . . . the retail coal dealers’ market has been shrinking, too. Despite a 22% increase in occupied dwelling units since 1940, the number of coal-consuming homes has de clined 21%. Source: Bureau of Mines; Bureau of the Census. . . since the war, European countries have figured more prominently in bituminous coal exports, which formerly went almost exclusively to Canada. Source: Bureau of Mines; Bureau of the Census. E. Estimated by Appalachian Coals, Inc. (1) Coal consumed for all uses including locomotive, powerhouse, shop, and station fuel. (2) Includes Labrador and Newfoundland. M ay 1, 1952 Monthly Business Review coal, except for the past three years. The initial drop in coal consumption in 1949 was due to a switch to residual fuel oil which was selling at “bar gain” prices along the coastal states. The relative price advantage of residual fuel oil has since nar rowed, but a 60 percent jump in the natural gas intake of the utilities between 1948 and 1951 has maintained the “gap” between power output and coal input. Nevertheless, the utilities used a record amount of coal in 1951 and it will continue to be an important source of electrical energy. It is easily stored at the point of use without constructing ex pensive storage facilities and consumption is not in danger of being curtailed during the coldest days of the year in favor of the home-heating market. Most other domestic markets for coal are lagging. The most pronounced reduction in coal consumption has occurred in the railroad fuel market. In fact, the familiar coal-burning steam locomotive will be a distinct novelty ten years hence if the present trend towards diesel-electric locomotives continues. In 1951, 36 percent of the freight traffic was in trains powered by coal, but just eleven years ago, in 1940, fourfifths of the freight was pulled by coal-burning steam locomotives. Diesel-electric locomotives have taken over the job. Dieselization of passenger trains has proceeded at a much faster rate. The decline of the steam locomotive will continue apace as long as the fuel cost of moving freight by coal remains double the cost by diesel fuel, as it has during the past seven years. However, the dieselelectric locomotive has a potential challenger in the coal-fueled gas turbine locomotive. Now under de development by the industry’s research organization, Bituminous Coal Research Inc., it is estimated that the coal-fired gas turbine could save roughly $50,000 per locomotive per year from the fuel cost of the diesel-electric. But, until a more efficient coal-burning plant is perfected, the swing away from coal will continue. Other industrial consumers of coal are also de manding less coal. In 1951, the soft coal consump tion of all industries other than the iron, steel, and electric power industries was only 2 percent above the 1935-39 average rate of use. Over the same period, the Federal Reserve index of the physical output of all manufactures advanced 129 percent, indicating that industry’s increased demand for heat and power is being supplied by the more efficient use of coal as well as by the use of other fuels. Some industries, however, are using more coal than ever before. For example, in 1951 the country’s cement mills used nearly twice the amount they consumed in the immediate postwar period. Nevertheless, the aggregate is declining. According to the 1947 Census of Manufactures, the chemical, stone-clay-glass, paper, food, and textile industries together used over seven-tenths of the Page 5 bituminous coal purchased and used for heat and power by the nation’s manufacturers in that year. The remaining three-tenths was used by the other 15 major groups of manufacturers. The consumer group served by the nation’s retail coal dealers, principally commercial and residential users, is also shrinking. The decline of coal in this market can best be illustrated by the 1940 and 1950 Censuses of Housing. In the 1940-1950 decade, the number of occupied dwelling units increased 22 per cent but the number reporting coal-burning heating equipment declined 21 percent while the number heated by gas jumped 189 percent. Adding all the domestic consumer classes together, grand total consumption of bituminous coal in the United States in 1951 stood 23 percent above the 1935-39 average rate of use. The sharply increased coal intake of the electric power utilities and the coke ovens offset the declining demand by other users between these two periods. However, after the high wartime rate of use, coal consumption declined rather steadily until 1949. Since then, consumption has been rising although 1951 usage was still about 8 percent below the 1947-49 average. At the beginning of 1952, stocks of bituminous coal held by industrial users and retail dealers were at a postwar high—nearly enough coal to last two months at the 1951 average rate of consumption. The 490-million-ton domestic demand for soft coal this year, estimated by Appalachian Coals, Incor porated, may or may not result in the 555-millionton output estimated by the Defense Solid Fuels Administration, depending upon what happens to AVERAGE MONTHLY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF BITUMINOUS COAL IN THE UNITED STATES, W ITH YEAR-END STOCKS 1933 - 1952 M IL . OF M IL . OF . . . stocks in the hands of industrial users and retail dealers at the end of 1951 were equal to nearly two months production, a figure which was exceeded only in 1942. Source: Bureau of Mines. E. Estimated. Production estimated by Defense Solid Fuels Admin istration and consumption by Appalachian Coals, Inc. (CONTINUED ON PA G E 7 Monthly Business Review Page 6 M ay 1, 1952 The Retail Credit Survey of 1951 The information below is drawn from the results of the 1951 Retail Credit Survey, conducted by the Federal Reserve System. The charts and tables refer to eight types of retail stores located in the Fourth District; stores selling exclusively for cash are not included. Although the Survey applied to auto mobile dealers as well as to the eight types of stores shown below, the auto data are not shown here since the Survey results are limited to vendors’ credit whereas a large part of the consumer credit in the auto trade takes the form of credit advanced by banks. Data on credit advanced in 1951 and 1950 by Fourth District auto dealers, however, can be furnished on request. INVENTORIES AT CLOSE OF 1951 Dollar Volume in Relation to Average Monthly Sales During 1951 YEAR-END INSTALMENT RECEIVABLES, 1951 AND 1950 Dollar Volume in Relation to Average Monthly Sales 12 NO. OF MONTHS* SALES N O. OF MONTHS* SALES N O . OF MONTHS* SALES 2 \2 JEWELRY HARDWARE MEN’S FURNITURE AUTO TIRE HOUSEHOLD WOMEN’S DEPARTMENT CLOTHING 8. ACCESSAPPLI- APPAREL ORY AKJCE HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE APPLI AN C E DEPARTMENT M EN’ S CLOTHING AUTO TIR E 8. ACCESSORY JEWELRY HARDWARE . . . inventories at the close o£ 1951 amounted to 9.7 times the average monthly sales in the case of jewelry stores; the ratio was smaller for other types of stores, and was lowest for department stores, which had an inventory of 2.4 months’ sales. The differences among the ratios reflect largely the customary differences in the patterns of retail ing at the various types of stores. . . . six types of stores showed a decline from 1950 to 1951 in the volume of year-end receivables expressed as a ratio of average month’s sales; jewelry stores, however, showed a very slight increase, from 5.2 to 5.3 months’ sales. CASH AND CREDIT SALES IN 1951 Cash, Charge and Instalment Sales as Percentage of Total Sales CHANGES IN DOLLAR VOLUME OF SALES T--I I | 1—I— I— r % OF TO TA L SALES Type Of S tore JEW ELRY HARDW ARE W O M E N ’S M EN* S APPAREL C L O T H IN G DEPARTM EN T AUTO TIRE & AC C ESSO R Y F U R N IT U R E HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E I---- 10 AUTO TIRE HARDWARE DEPARTMENT MEN'S WOMEN’S 8. ACCESSCLOTHING APPAREL ORY JEWELRY HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE APPLI AN C E . . . cash sales as a percentage of total sales in 1951 ranged from 55% for auto tire and accessory stores to 13% for furniture stores; instalment sales ranged from 77% of total sales of furniture stores to 3% for women’s apparel stores; charge account sales ranged from 62% for women’s apparel stores to 10% for furniture stores. PERCENT CHANG E, 1 9 5 0 -1 9 5 1 +10 . . . gains in dollar sales between 1950 and 1951 ranged from 8% for jewelry stores to 2% for furniture stores; sales by household appliance stores declined by 4%. Monthly Business Review M ay 1, 1952 CHANGES IN SALES VOLUME AND COMPOSITION OF SALES ACCORDING TO CASH AND CREDIT 1951 and 1950 Type of Store No. of Instal % Change in Cash Charge ment Stores Sales Total Sales Sales Sales Reporting 1950-1951 1951 1950 1951 1950 1951 1950 Auto Tire and Accessory............... Hardware.................. Department.............. Men’s Clothing......... Women’s Apparel__ Jewelry...................... HouseholdAppliances Furniture.................... +3.6 +6.9 +4.2 +6.4 +6.7 +8.4 —4.3 +2.3 55.2 48.9 38.6 36.2 34.9 29.8 24.4 13.4 52.9 47.8 38.4 37.0 34.9 32.5 24.1 13.3 11.1 43.8 47.1 37.9 62.1 11.4 24.3 9.5 12.0 44.8 46.6 38.5 62.4 12.3 25.8 9.4 33.7 7.3 14.3 25.9 3.0 58.8 51.3 77.1 35.1 7.4 15.0 24.5 2.7 55.2 50.1 77.3 162 151 73 44 33 62 112 147 YEAR-END INVENTORIES, 1951 and 1950 Dollar Volume in Relation to Average Month’s Sales Type of Store Months Sales 1951 1950 9.7 10.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.4 3.7 3.8 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.7 No. of Stores Reporting 61 165 46 178 165 128 40 80 YEAR-END INSTALMENT RECEIVABLES 1951 and 1950 Dollar Volume in Relation to Average Month’s Sales Type of Store Months Sales 1951 1950 6.7 7.6 7.0 7.5 6.7 6.9 6.2 6.4 4.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 3.7 4.1 * Excludes any stores which sell or discount receivables. No. of Stores Reporting* 10 58 27 8 45 29 20 Page 7 BITUMINOUS COAL (CONTINUED FROM PA G E S) these stocks. If the stocks are built up, production may be higher than estimated. If they are drawn down, production will fall below the estimate. How ever, it is unlikely that there will be any appreciable decrease in stocks because they provide a cushion against the possibility of a strike at the mines. Coal production is expected to increase over the next five years as a result of increasing demands by industrial users growing out of the defense expansion of the steel and electric power utilities. In addition, the development of large scale synthetic fuel plants using the coal hydrogenation process to produce petroleum and critical coal-chemicals, now being pushed by the Bureau of Mines, would result in a sharply increased demand for coal. Officials of one of the nation’s largest coal companies believe that by 1955, or a few years after, there will be a reversal in fuel trends, with coal not only capturing some oil and gas markets, but also, at a later date, making up deficiencies in petroleum and natural gas by coal syntheses and gasification. They estimate that coal requirements in 1975 will be around 880 million net tons, or two-thirds more than last year’s consumption. With respect to over-all demand, the long term outlook for the bituminous coal industry is favorable. Bituminous coal reserves represent over nine-tenths of this country’s untapped store of mineral fuels. New uses for coal-chemicals are constantly being discov ered. Radically new methods of recovery are being developed, both to speed the production process and to lower the cost of the product. The new dawning for coal may well be “just around the corner”. If it is, Fourth District mines, producing over one-third of the country’s soft coal, will help supply the in creased demand. Page 8 Monthly Business Review M ay 1, 1952 Outlook for Tin by CLYDE WILLIAMS, Director, Battelle Memorial Institute Since the beginning of World War II, the country’s expanding economy has created demands on metal resources, in many instances unequalled in our history. A speed up in raw materials research has resulted. This has opened up a bright future for such metals as aluminum, magnesium, titanium, and molybdenum. Synthetic mate rials such as plastics, furthermore, have been supplementing the work of metals to do some jobs previ ously done only by metals. In view of the reshuffling in raw materials usage, one might wonder about the prospects for an old stand-by like tin. The tin can followed the American soldier around the globe during the last war. It occupies considerable space in everybody’s kitchen cabinet. Use of tin in bronze, in solders, and in bearing alloys is old and well established. Almost complete dependence on foreign sources of sup ply for tin can be a weak spot in our economy during periods of war and defense mobilization. The trend in the United States, therefore, is to attempt to make the country less dependent on tin. This is being done through the de velopment of more efficient methods of using a given quantity of tin and through the use of alternative materials. Tin, however, is not a “dying” metal. Because of its excellent properties, its uses are varied and deeply in grained in our economy. Its volum e of consum ption will continue even if there are cost rises brought on by scarcity or higher costs of extraction. Moreover, under normal con ditions, there should be a modest growth in the over all use of tin during the next twenty-five years. Alternative container materials such as glass, and more efficient methods of using tin may reduce tin needs for its major use, can making, by at least one-third of present requirements. For the same reason, tin needs for other uses, such as collapsible tubes, foil, solder, and bronze, probably will decline. To offset this trend there are the many hundreds of other established uses for tin. Futhermore, research is seeking and finding new applications for tin. Among these are included electrotinning and tin for alloy coatings. Tin ore reserves appear to be adequate for at least twenty-five years’ production at the present or a moderately increased rate. Chances for adding to these reserves are fair, through continued exploration and improved tech nology of mining and refining. During the past decade, the making of tin plate, which accounts for about half of tin consumption in the United Editor’s Note—While the views expressed on this page are not nec essarily those of this bank, the M onthly Business Review is pleased to make this space available for the discussion of significant develop ments in industrial research. States, has been undergoing a vast change. There has always been a minimum practical thickness for “hot-dip” coatings, the time-honored method of making tin plate. A pre-World War II development known as “electrotin ning” makes it possible to produce tin plate of almost any thickness. This has greatly reduced the amount of tin necessary to do a given job. In 1941, the can industry used 41.000 long tons of tin to make 25 billion cans, but only 31.000 tons in 1950 to make 33 billion cans. Nearly two-thirds of all tin plate made in the United States in 1950 was electrolytic tin plate. This trend toward replacing the old “hot-dip method” is continuing, but at a reduced rate. Although pressure is strong to convert entirely to electrolytic tin, it may take up to 25 years be fore this objective is accomplished. A small amount of hot-dipped plate will probably continue to be made for a few heavy coating applications. Many can ends are now made from untinned black plate. Some can bodies, furthermore, are being produced from untinned black plate that is coated with can lining lacquers, enamels, and plastic-base materials. Because of cost, however, it appears that coated black plate cans will be used only in emergencies when the necessity to save tin becomes more critical. Experimentation on aluminum-coated steel for can mak ing has been encouraging. It may become a strong com petitor of tin plate on an economic basis, for containing materials representing over half the can production. If necessary, the amount of tin solder could be curtailed to possibly a third of its present total volume. The average content of tin in solder used for can making has already been reduced from about 40 percent to around 5 percent. Much tin-free solder, furthermore, is currently in use. It will not be feasible economically, however, to reduce the total volume of solder used by more than a small percent in the foreseeable future. This is largely beacuse of the de sirability of soldered electrical connections and miscellane ous applications where soft, tin-lead solders are the easiest to apply. New uses for tin are being developed to replace part of expected losses in old applications. Most promising of these is the coating of various products by electrodeposition with tin, and tin alloys. Coating electrolytically with tin alone is scarcely new, but some improvements in the process make control easier and results more dependable. Tin must be imported over vulnerable lines of trans portation from southeastern Asia, Africa, Bolivia, and from European smelters. Greater control over this problem has already been secured through the development of alterna tive materials and more efficient methods of using a given quantity of tin. This trend will be accelerated whenever overseas supply lines are jeopardized, or when alternatives to present tin usage are proven technically feasible and more economically worth while. In spite of all this, how ever, tin is such a useful metal that industry will continue to consume it at its present volume.
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