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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District Federal Reserve Bank o f Cleveland Vol. 12 Cleveland, Ohio, May 1, 1930 During the first quarter in the Fourth District most production figures have shown an expansion from month to month, but the March records (the latest com plete ones available), in all cases except building, indicate that the growth during the first quarter from the low point of December was no greater and in some cases even less than seasonal. Steel production declined in March and coal output was down more than is usual fo r that time o f year. Retail and wholesale distribution was in smaller volume and employment showed little change from February. On the other hand automobile output showed practically the same increase from February as was reported in 1929 and March building contracts awarded exhibited more than the usual seasonal expan sion. They are, however, still well below the level o f other recent years. Bank debits also increased more than seasonally. The second quarter seems to have opened in a slightly more favorable manner. Industrialists in many parts o f the District state that the trend o f general business is now definitely upward, though the rate o f improvement is still quite slow. Substantiating this, might be mentioned the increase in steel mill operations, particularly at Cleve land, where they averaged 86 per cent o f capacity in the latter part of A pril compared with 60-70 per cent in March. Automobile producers, especially those o f small ears, have expanded schedules in response to increased de mand. This resulted in a distribution o f parts orders throughout the District and increased operations at many factories. Tire production schedules were considerably larger in April than a month earlier and inventories o f both dealers and manufacturers are smaller than one year ago. Coal production has been increasing in prepara tion fo r Lake shipments. Department store sales were reported in good volume, although still under last year and car loadings increased more than seasonally in early April. The employment situation was improved in A pril by expanding industrial activity and the commencement o f out-door work such as construction and farm ing. Credit conditions are practically unchanged from one month ago and are favorable to continued improvement. Although the extent o f business recovery from the low point has not been particularly impressive, the fa ct that the general downward movement appears at least to have been stopped is enoouraging. No. 5 FIN A N C IA L The credit situation in the Fourth District continues about the same as a month ago, few changes o f any importance having occurred during the past fou r weeks. Member Bank Credit. Reporting member banks in this District did not experience the increase in demand fo r funds which has occurred in the spring o f other recent years. Loans on securities in mid-April were almost identical with a month earlier, but were about $29,000,000 higher than one year ago. “ A ll other” loans declined slightly during the month and were about $26,000,000 below April, 1929. These two changes about counter balanced each other so that total volume o f credit ex tended by local reporting banks was practically the same as last year. Investments, although still about $20,000,000 smaller than in April, 1929, have increased nearly $50,000,000 since the first o f the year. Indebtedness at the Reserve bank has been further reduced. Both demand and time deposits increased in April and are higher than a year ago. The increase in total de posits since the first o f the year has been $73,000,000, about the same as was reported in 1928, but which con trasted with a decline o f about $7,000,000 in the corre sponding period o f 1929. Reserve Bank Credit. Demand fo r funds by member banks declined further during the past month, total bills discounted on April 23 being only $22,870,000 as against $26,470,000 in March and $75,078,000 one year ago. BANKING OPERATIONS Federal Reserve Banks Federal Reserve Bank of ClevelandFederal Reserve System (In Millions) (In Millions) Apr. 23, Apr. 24, Mar. 26, Apr. 23, Apr. 24, Mar. 28 1930 1929 1930 1930 1929 1930 Gold Reserves ......... 296 286 306 3,049 2,79fl 3,061 Discounts ................. 23 75 26 211 975 207 Acceptances ............. 20 16 19 267 141 256 U. S. Securities....... 50 28 35 527 150 529 Total bills and se curities ................... 93 120 81 1,005 1,281 1,001 Federal Reserve notes in circulation ....... 181 209 180 1.518 1,668 1,578 Total deposits ........... 190 181 189 2,482 2,850 2,888 Reporting Member Bank* Fourth District United States (In Millions) (In Millions) Apr. 28, Apr. 24, Mar. 26, Apr. 23, Apr. 24, Max. 28 1930 1929 1980 1980 1929 1980 Loans os securities.. 740 702 759 8,826 7,885 8,184 All other ................... 789 819 797 8,629 9,062 $.702 Total loans .............„ 1,529 1>21 1,666 16,955 16,888 16,886 Investments ............. 648 670 647 6,791 6,871 8,678 Demand deposits 1,042 1,028 1.048 13,456 12.977 18,206 Time deposits ........... 965 968 982 7,064 6,776 T.085 2 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW ported in that month since 1924. Defaults in the first This was the lowest amount reported since September, quarter aggregated 534, which was fou r per cent leas 1924. than one year ago. Liabilities, however, both fo r M arch Member banks have been assisted in reducing redis and the first quarter, were larger than last year, the in counts by the Reserve bank's increased holdings o f creases being 27 and 23 per cent respectively. acceptances and government securities which has con tributed to ease the general situation. Acceptances held M ANUFACTURING, MINING rose from $15,827,000 on April 2, the low point o f the year, to $20,117,000 on April 23 when they were about Iron and The iron and steel industry in th e $5,000,000 higher than one year ago. Government securi Steel Pittsburgh-Y oungstown-Cleveland d is ties increased $15,000,000 during the month ended April trict in the month ended A pril 15 w as 23 and at $49,995,000 compared with $28,308,000 in April, characterized by an unsettled production and price situa 1929. Total credit extended by this bank on April 23 tion, due, in large measure, to the lag in the automotive was $27,000,000 below last year, but was slightly higher industry. than in early April, when at $77,000,000, was the lowest In the last half o f March there was a moderate gain in since the middle o f 1924. production, and the uptrend was continued in A priL Federal Reserve notes in circulation increased about Those sheet, strip and bar mills which are supplying the $10,000,000 between February 5, the low point so fa r this small car manufacturers enjoyed slightly heavier specifi year, and April 23. This was almost identical with the cations in early A pril; other Ynills dependent on autom o increase shown in the same period o f last year and was tive demand barely held their own. Cleveland steel w orks greater than in 1928. It was in contrast with the trend increased operations to 86 per cent o f capacity in th e exhibited throughout the country, however, where note week ended A pril 19, but mills at Youngstown and other circulation has been generally downward. centers are making steel at lower levels. Money Rates. Reports covering rates charged cus March Fourth District operations averaged about 70 tomers by banks in’ larger cities in the Fourth District per cent, contrasted with 90 per cent or better one yea r indicate little change from last month at Cleveland, but ago. Normally the period from March 15 to A pril 15 is a slight downward revision at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. the most buoyant o f the year in production, but this y ear Rates at all centers are generally lower than since early there has been no apparent bulge as yet. Tin plate m ills, 1928. Weakness in the spring demand fo r commercial many o f which are located near Steubenville, are th e funds has thus been reflected in money rates as well as only ones comparing favorably with last year. Pipe m ills have been operating at the lowest levels. in an increase in investments by member banks. Easy money rates at financial centers both in this coun Prices declined at a slow but steady rate during the try and abroad continued during the past month and were month, with an unusual degree o f apathy being shown on in decided contrast with those o f a year ago. Call the part o f producers of heavy finished steel. No efforts money at New York renewed at fou r per cent in April, to stabilize or strengthen the market have been made. but declined to 3 ^ and three per cent on several occa Heavy finished steel declined $1 a ton, nails 10 cents a sions. This compared with a range o f seven to fifteen keg, steel pipe $4 a ton and sheets and strip are at th e low point o f the first quarter. per cent and an average o f 8% per cent in April, 1929. There was a slight increase in rates on 90-day bankers' Inert secondary buying and unsettled prices have made acceptances at mid-April, but even the higher rate, three consumers most cautious in their commitments. A nother per cent, was 2*& per cent below last year's level. Time contributor to the dull market situation was the Bethle money (90-day) was being loaned at 4-4^4 per cent hem-Sheet & Tube merger and the discussion which which compared with 8% -9 per cent last year. Bond surrounded it. While this was under consideration, busi yields, after showing a decrease in March, increased ness was unusually slack. A t mid-April it was fe lt that the automotive situation would slowly improve, but it slightly in April. Savings. Savings deposits at 61 large banks in Ohio was still doubtful whether this would offset the slow and western Pennsylvania on A pril 1 showed an increase general manufacturing demand and the decline in ra il road orders. from the preceding month fo r the first time since last August, excluding the January 1 figure which was in Directly reflecting the weak price situation, the Iron Trade Review composite o f fourteen leading iron and creased by interest credits. Bank Debits. Check payments at principal cities in steel products has declined rapidly. On A pril 23 it w as the District showed a larger increase from February to $34.40, compared with an average o f $34.95 fo r M arch, March than was reported in any year since 1923. The $35.24 fo r February and $36.81 fo r April, 1929. This first three weeks in A pril exhibited about the usual sea index is now the lowest since March, 1922, and bears ou t sonal increase from March, but the difference between other price comparisons which show many products now more cheaply priced than since the war. 1930 and 1929 continues to be near ten per cent. A l though debit figures are still somewhat distorted b y se Pig iron and steel ingot output exhibited opposite curity transactions, which increased in March and early trends in March, the form er showing an increase o f 3.8 April, the month to month growth being larger than in per cent from February while the latter displayed a 2.7 other recent years seems to indicate improvement in per cent decline in the daily average which contrasted with a usual seasonal increase o f five per cent. general activity. Commercial Failures. Commercial failures in the Daily average pig iron production in March was 105,Fourth District in March numbered 169, only one more 520 gross tons, compared with 101,640 in February and than in February, considerably less than the 196 re 119,662 tons last March. The gain fo r the month w as ported in March, 1929, which was the smallest number re th e third reported since the low point o f last December. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Total output fo r March, 3,271,122 tons, brought the first quarter production to 8,955,810 tons, as against 10,360,922 tons in the first quarter o f 1929, and 8,953,358 tons in the same period o f 1928. Unfilled steel orders increased in March at the expense o f lower production. Output fo r the month averaged 164,961 tons a day in contrast with 169,499 tons in February and 194,458 tons last March. First quarter steel ingot output was 12,143,406 tons, compared with 13,874,612 tons in the same period last year. Production so fa r this year was only slightly less than the 12,544,000 tons manufactured in the initial quarter o f 1928. Coal Demand fo r bituminous coal through out the country was below average in March despite the cold weather in the latter part o f the month which affected many sections. This sluggishness caused a curtailment o f operations at most mines and a smaller monthly output than was re ported in either the preceding month or March, 1929. Total coal production in March was estimated at 35,740,000 tons, a decrease o f 4,130,000 tons from last year and o f 3,815,000 tons from February. There is normally a contraction from February to March, but the decline from last year was a reflection o f smaller industrial and railroad demand. For the year-to-date (January 1-April 19) production has been nine per cent below the same period o f 1929. March production in the Fourth District was 14,689,000 tons, a decline o f eight per cent from one year ago. The decrease o f six per cent which was reported fo r the first quarter, compared with the same period o f 1929, was less than the nine per cent decline reported fo r the entire coun try and indicated that local mines were operating at rela tively higher levels compared with last year than were mines in other parts o f the country. A pril reports o f coal companies in this District tend to show an improvement in demand from March, part o f which was in preparation fo r lake shipments which began in late April. This coal movement to upper lake ports is always beneficial to local mines. Household de mand continued somewhat longer than usual because o f the cold weather during the month. It is generally felt that conditions in local fields are about the same as a year ago. S Automobiles Probably the most significant develop ment during the past month so fa r as its effect on this District is concerned was the improvement shown in the automobile industry in late March and the first three weeks o f April. While output early in March was at a lower rate than in Feb ruary, the expansion in the last part o f the month brought the March total o f passenger cars and trucks produced in the United States to 401,378 units, an increase of 24 per cent from February. This was only two per cent less than the increase shown from February to March last year. The March figure shows no improvement from a year ago, output in the first quarter being 31 per cent below the corresponding period o f 1929. It is generally admitted in the trade that 1929 was a year of abnormal activity, especially in the automobile industry, and that 1930 output will be below last year’s figure. First quarter production, however, amounted to 998,566 cars and trucks this year and was larger than the 968,838 units manufactured in the first three months o f 1928, the year o f second largest production in his tory. So fa r this year, monthly figures have followed rather closely those o f early 1928. Production o f trucks has made a relatively better showing than passenger cars. March truck output was only eight per cent below last year, improvement hav ing been shown since the first o f the year, as first quarter production was 13 per cent under one year ago. The motor truck business has not been affected by con ditions which have confronted the passenger car industry. Fourth District manufacturers report operations below last year, but state that the trend is upward. Schedules o f the more important manufacturers were expanded slightly in April so that at the middle o f the month the industry was producing slightly more than 100,000 cars per week. This was about 40,000 cars be low the corresponding period o f 1929. A slight improve ment in retail demand has been reported coincident with spring weather. The increase in output is corroborated by reports from steel concerns at Cleveland and Youngstown which supply a great deal o f material fo r Detroit factories, and by many parts and accessory plants throughout the District which have been receiving larger orders during the past few weeks. Employment at 49 parts concerns in THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 4 Ohio, according to the Ohio State Bureau o f Business Research, increased four per cent in March, but was 36 per cent below last year. April figures have increased further. New Passenger Car Registrations Ten Principal Counties ,% March March 1930 1929 Akron (Sum m it).............. 808 1,381 Canton (Stark)................. 508 968 Cincinnati (H am ilton)... 1,477 1,982 Cleveland (C uyahoga). . . 3,430 5,529 Columbus (F ra n k lin ).... 863 1,522 Dayton (M on tgom ery). . 672 1,208 Pittsburgh, Pa. (Allegheny).................... 3,366 3,431 Toledo (L ucas)................. 729 1,740 Youngstown (Mahoning) 460 789 Wheeling, W .V a. (O hio). 181 191 T o t a l . ........................... 12,494 18,741 % change change from Jan.-Mar. Jan.-Mar. from 1929 19301929 1929 — 4 1 .6 1,959 3,303 — 40.7 — 47.5 1,245 2>021 — ;?§•£ — 25.5 3,673 4,454 — 17.5 — 38.0 8,179 11,779 — 30.6 — 43.3 2,377 3,457 — 31.2 — 4 4 .4 1,900 2*854 — 33.4 — 1.9 — 58.1 — 41.7 — 5 .2 — 33.3 7,036 1,808 1,182 403 29,762 7,542 3,551 1,797 420 41,178 — 6.7 — 49.1 — 34.2 — 4.0 — 27.7 New passenger car registration figures, emanating from the above and other sources, fo r ten counties in the District representing all the more important cities, increased 33 per cent from February, but were still that much behind March, 1929. The preceding chart shows new registrations in nine counties fo r the years 1927 to March, 1930 (Ohio County, W est Virginia registrations not available before 1929). So fa r this year auto regis trations have exceeded 1927 and 1928, but are below those o f 1929. The increase from January to February was larger than in the three preceding years, but the im provement from February to March was smaller than in 1927-8-9. Unfavorable weather was a contributing factor to the retardation shown in March. Rubber and Tires Reports from rubber manufacturers indicate that business is decidedly better than a month ago, the improvement from March, however, being only o f a seasonal nature. With April 1 inventories of both dealers and producers considerably below last year, the seasonal increase in demand fo r replacement tires and the slight improve ment in automobile production are cited as the reasons fo r increased activity at local plants. The following table shows the average stocks per dealer in the United States as o f April 1, fo r the past five years, as compiled by the Department of Commerce from over 22,000 reports. Dealers' stocks have been con siderably reduced from last year and are also lower than in 1928. The increase in the importance of the balloon casing, which until this year has been segregated from the total number of casings, is also shown. (Number o f Tires per Dealer) 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 Total casings (Inc. balloons) 75.1 94.4 78.9 70.6 63.9 Balloon casings (alone) ....... (1) 69.1 40.1 35.5 21.9 Inner tubes .............................. 109.0 143.5 121.2 120.9 119.6 Solid and cushion tires ....... 24.4 35.0 33.2 24.7 26.6 (1) Not segregated March consumption of crude rubber in the United States increased slightly from February, but at 35,914 tons was about 9,000 tons below the amount consumed in March, 1929. Imports during the month, though consid erably below last year, were 10,000 tons larger than con sumption so that stocks o f rubber on April 1 were 156,516 tons, an increase o f 56,000 tons over last year. Crude rubber prices continued near the 15-cent level in March and the first half o f April. There has been a slight advance since the first o f the year, but th e general price is still lower than at any time since 1922. Tire production in March (preliminary) totaled 3,923,000 units, including solids. This compared with 5,675,000 last year and was a decline o f 31 per cent. First quar ter output was 30 per cent under 1929. Shoes Shoe manufacturers in the southern part o f this District did not report the increase in production in March that was shown by the entire country. Output o f local fa c tories declined 2.5 per cent from February to M arch while all concerns in the country reported an increase o f nine per cent in the same period. A similar condition was reported last year, however, the District showing a decline while the country experienced an improvement. March production was 14 per cent below the correspond ing month o f 1929 and first quarter output declined 16.3 per cent from one year ago. Since the beginning o f the year the shoe business has been quite irregular. Being very dependent on weather conditions and the occurrence o f Easter, sales both at wholesale and retail have been considerably b e low other recent years. Manufacturers report ea rly A pril demand about on a par with last year; March w as a very poor month, few orders beyond actual needs were received. Hide prices were quite steady months, but are slightly lower than Hides were quoted at 14.00 cents a pared with 14.50 in 1929 and 23.50 during the past tw o at this time last year. pound in March com cents in March, 1928. Other Manufacturing Reports from a number o f m anufacturing lines, which appear below, indi cate that industrial recovery is p ro ceeding at a slow, but steady rate as the year advances. First quarter operations in most lines were considerably below the corresponding period o f last year and in m ost cases below average. It now appears that the trend is slightly upward, however. Agricultural Implements. The agricultural implement industry is one of the few which has so fa r exceeded 1929 in volume. Both domestic and foreign demand has been good; exports were more than twice as large as in the early part o f 1929, due chiefly to tractor sales in Russia. Farmers seem to be going ahead with large mechanization programs. Brick and Ceramics. A seasonally improved em ploy, ment situation and greater demand fo r products char acterized this industry in southeastern part o f the D is trict. Operations are still much below those o f recent years. Cork. A slight betterment from the first quarter has been shown in demand fo r cork products. Operations are still considerably below last year, but are stated to be about normal. Electrical Supplies. Equipment demand has been showing an upward trend with a slight increase in the size of or ders received. Uncertainty in the copper price situation has been a retarding factor for some time, but following the drop of four cents a pound in mid-April, sales both of metal and manufactured products improved. Glass. A slight increase in glass production was re THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW ported over February and March. Employment increased about four per cent in March compared with February, but was slightly under 1929, Plate glass output has been at a much lower level than other products. Household glassware demand is slow. Hardware, Machinery. March operations declined rather sharply after increasing in February. Considerable im provement has been shown in April, however. The slight expansion in automobile production has benefited parts concerns in this District. High grade engineering special ty demand has slackened slightly, but still seems to be showing no marked trend. Paint. Business has shown a seasonal increase and is better than one month ago. Orders from automobile and furniture manufacturers are still well below last year, other lines, however, compare very favorably. Orders have been received in good volume and the quantities specified have increased during the past two or three weeks. The trend appears definitely upward and collections are more prompt. Paper. Employment at 11 concerns in March was better than last year or the preceding month. Considerable irregularity exists, however, and April has exhibited slight change from March, some establishments reporting a bet ter demand while others state that the opposite is true. Stoves, Ranges, etc. A very slight increase in the de mand fo r kitchen equipment was reported in early April. Operations continue below last year. Competition is very keen. AGRICU LTURE Considerable interest is being shown at this time in reports o f condition o f agricultural crops, particularly wheat, and planting intentions because o f their ultimate effect on the price situation. Generally a small or poor crop results in higher prices while a large crop many times has the opposite effect. The table below gives the A pril 1 condition o f winter wheat for the states comprising this District and for the entire United States: Ohio Penna. Ky. W est Va. U. S. A pril 1, 77.4 89 1930 86 86 67 82.7 88 89 89 89 1929 80.9 81 86 78 1919-28 average 74 It will be noticed that the condition o f winter wheat on April 1 was somewhat below last year’s figure, both in this District and the entire country. Kentucky and West Virginia report better wheat than the 10-year average, while Ohio reports a condition quite a bit under average. More damage from winter-killing occurred in this ter ritory than was at first realized. This was particularly true in western Ohio and the condition fo r the entire state has declined 22 points since December 1, 1929. While it is somewhat early to make any accurate estimate o f the probable crop based on the April 1 condition because too many things might intervene between now and harvest, a crop o f about 550,300,000 bushels fo r the entire country is indicated by an analysis o f past relationships between condition and yield. This is a decline o f five per cent from last year’s harvest. The low condition figure fo r Ohio indicates a much larger decline in this District’s wheat output. No figures are available on abandonment, but it has been larger locally than in 1929. 6 The follow ing table shows the planting or planting intentions o f spring crops as a percentage o f the acreage actually harvested in 1929. These figures are compiled by the United States Department o f Agriculture from data supplied by representative farm ers throughout the country. They are not to be construed as indicating the acreage that will actually be planted, since con ditions may cause farm ers to change materially their present plans. They are simply an indication o f what farmers had in mind to plant when they made their reports, compared with the acreage harvested by them last year. U. S. W . Va Ohio Penn. Ky. Corn ........... ...100 103 102.8 103 99 102.5 105 107 102 — Barley ......... .... 95 120 140 101.7 105 103.4 Potatoes ....... ....104 105 113 Tobacco 125 105.7 113 101 106 Tame Hay ...... 96 101 100 99.2 98 On the whole there is an increase indicated in acreages o f most crops, both locally and throughout the country. The state figures show that the gain from last year is somewhat larger than the two per cent composite in crease estimated fo r the United States. In spite o f the cold weather in late March, the present season appears to be opening up favorably. Spring work was fairly well advanced by that time and warm weather in early April caused fru it trees to blossom. The extent o f the damage to the fruit crop by the freezing weather in the latter part o f the month has not definitely been determined. Peach and cherry pros pects are rather poor generally, crop injury ranging from complete to only average in the various sections. No damage has yet been reported in the grape belt sur rounding Lake Erie and it is too early to state the con dition o f apples and pears. The general index o f farm prices declined 5 points in March and at 126 was 14 points below last year and the lowest since May, 1927. The m ost drastic declines occurred in wheat, which reached the lowest level for this time o f year since 1913, and poultry products, which fell 39 points in one month. Tobacco A ll indications point to a larger to bacco crop this year than was raised in 1929. Plant beds were damaged in some localities by the dry weather and had to be re sown, but, so far as can be determined, the supply o f plants is still large enough for the acreage intended. Official estimates indicate that tobacco planting inten tions throughout the entire country were 5.7 per cent larger than the average harvested in 1929. Reports point to increases in all types, but the largest are shown in the burley, flue-cured and dark types o f Ken tucky and Tennessee. Farmers expected to increase burley acreage by about 15 per cent, which would result in approximately 478,100 acres being planted, compared with 417,200 acres harvested in 1929. With only an average yield this would mean an increase in production o f about 75,000,000 pounds over 1929 and about 100,000,000 pounds over the average consumption o f recent years. The present situation in the burley district is not so dissimilar from that o f 1926 when growers realized only 6 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 13.1 cents a pound on the average fo r their crop. In that year production was 301,000,000 pounds and stock carry over from 1925 was 466,000,000 pounds. This year stocks are likely to be about 360,000,000 pounds, accord ing to the Kentucky State Department o f Agriculture, and with production estimated anywhere from 375,000,000 pounds upward, the total supply is expected to ap proximate that o f 1926. It is to be remembered, however, that many things including weather may materially change the 1930 crop situation. The above figures are only based on present intentions in comparison with actual occurrences o f other recent years. March sales o f 58 large department stores were 16 per cent below last year and sales in the first quarter were eleven per cent below the corresponding period o f 1929. This latter figure will no doubt be somewhat m odified by the April reports. The stock figures are slightly more significant. On March 31, 1930, which marked the beginning o f the Easter sales, stocks o f department stores were five per cent low er than at the close o f March last year after all Easter bu ying had been done. This clearly indicates that retail stores, in this District at least, are carrying smaller in* ventories than one year ago. BUILDING Total building contracts awarded in the Fourth District in March showed more than the full seasonal increase from February. Amounting to $60,012,000, they ex ceeded March, 1929, by 28 per cent and February, 1930, by 65 per cent. This large increase reduced the discre pancy between the first quarter o f 1930 and 1929 to five per cent. Except fo r residential building which showed only a 24 per cent increase from February and which at $9,218,000 was 44 per cent below the low level o f March last year, construction work in the first quarter made fair progress. Non-residential building exceeded the first three months o f 1929 by 6.4 per cent, just about the same increase that was shown for all states east o f the Rockies. The increase in this District was not well distributed, however, being due principally to large projects at Cin cinnati, Dayton and Toledo. Some o f the more sizeable declines are explained by large contracts which were let early last year. This was particularly true o f Pitts burgh, Erie and Akron. Although the increase in March was regarded by many as a sign that building had definitely turned upward, the figures o f the F. W . Dodge Corporation fo r the first part o f April, fo r this territory at least, do not bear out this fact. Daily average contracts fo r the first 18 days o f April were 33 per cent below the daily average o f March and 19 per cent below April, 1929. Unfavorable weather no doubt has had some effect on building activity re cently. With contemplated projects reported in March larger than one year ago, it is hoped that the advent o f warm weather will enable some o f these building pro grams to get under way. T RA D E Wholesale trade in general in the Fourth District has been showing a downward tendency since last fall. A s shown on the chart, for more than a year following August, 1928, wholesale trade exhibited gradual improvement, but the high point was reached in October and since that time it has receded rather sharply. March sales were larger than those o f February; the increase, however, was less than seasonal and the March volume was below that o f any other recent year. The decline in commodity prices has been the cause of part of this falling-off, but the greater part o f it is probably a reflection o f the retailer’s policy o f keeping stocks at a minimum, which has been adhered to during the past few months. Little or no forward buying has been done. Of all reporting wholesale lines, groceries made the best showing. March sales were only slightly b elow the same month o f 1929 and first quarter business w as down 0.5 per cent from last year. Accounts receivable were three per cent larger, but collections were three per cent smaller than in the corresponding month o f 1929. Wholesale drug sales in March declined six per cen t and were ten per cent smaller in the first quarter com pared with corresponding periods o f 1929. Accounts re ceivable were considerably larger, but collections w ere smaller than one year ago. A ll reporting wholesale dry goods firms experienced a smaller demand fo r merchandise during March as com pared with the same month o f 1929. Sales fo r the month and the first quarter were 16 and 14 per cent below the corresponding periods of last year. Accounts receivable were down 11 and collections 15 per cent. Hardware sales also showed sizeable declines both in March and the first quarter, being 19 and 13 per cent, below the same intervals o f 1929. Stocks were sligh tly larger and accounts receivable and collections somewhat smaller than a year ago. Retail Trade Retail buying showed some improvement in A pril compared with March, but was still slightly below the level of the pre-Easter volume o f other recent years. In comparing department store sales in March with the corresponding month o f last year, whicji is the usual procedure, allowance must be made fo r the oc currence o f Easter if any fa ir conclusion as to the present state o f retail trade is to be reached. In 1929, Easter occurred on the last day o f March so that nearly all Easter buying fell in the third month. This year with Easter in the latter part o f April, buying, which always increases prior to that date, occurred mostly in the fourth month. Until April figures have been received, the true condition o f retail trade in the Fourth District cannot be definitely ascertained. Wholesale Trade THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Fourth District Business Statistics 7 Fourth District Business Indexes (000 Omitted) (1923-1925 = 100) % % from from Fourth District Unless March, from Jan.-Mar. from Otherwise Specified 1930 1929 1930 1929 Bank Debits— 24 cities..........................$ 3,164,000 — 10.9 9,356,000 — 11.4 Savings Deposits— end of month: Ohio— 3 6 b a n k s....................................$ 770,558 — 1 .8 767,687* — 2 .6 Western Pa.— 25 banks..................... $ 274,020 — 1.2 2 7 3 ,6 1 4 1 — 0 .6 T otal— 61 banks..................................$ 1,044,578 — 1.7 1 ,0 4 1 ,3 d 1 — 2.1 Postal Receipts— 9 cities....................... $ 3,217 — 3 .6 9,617 + 2 .0 Life Insurance Sales : Ohio and P a ......................................... $ 141,347 + 7 .0 382,979 + 8 .9 Retail Sales: Department stores— 58 firms...........£ 22,402 — 16.2 61,409 — 11.1 Wearing Apparel Stores— 17 firm s.-3 1,545 — 27.8 3,964 «— 17.9 Furniture— 46 firm s............................J5 788 — 2 7.6 2,224 — 2 0.6 Wholesale Sales: Grocery— 41 firms...............................J5 5,746 — 0 .2 17,045 — 0 .5 D ry Goods— 11 firms......................... $ 1,803 — 15.7 4,823 — 13.6 Hardware— 17 firms............................$ 1,863 — 18.6 5,128 — 13.2 Drugs— 13 firms.................................. $ 1,728 — 6 .1 4,978 — 10.4 Buildjng permits— 27 cities................... $ 17,^12 — 16.3 38,483 — 16.0 Building contracts Residential.............................................$ 9,218 — 4 4 .6 24,518 — 35.7 Total, all classes...................................$ 60,012 + 2 7 .5 130,865 — 5.3 Commercial Failures: N um ber.................................................... 169® — 12.9 534* — 4 .0 Liabilities.............................................. $ 5,263 + 2 7 .1 14,387 + 2 3 .3 Production: Pig iron, U. S..............................Tons 3,271 — 1 1.8 8,956 — 13.6 Steel ingots, U. S . . . ................. Tons 4,289 — 15.2 12,143 — 12.5 Automobiles: Passenger cars— U. S........................ 335,789* — 34.6 846,127* — 33.2 Trucks— U. S...................................... 64,200* — 8.3 149,456* — 17.1 Bituminous coa l..........................Tons 14,689 — 7 .6 48,419 — 6 .2 Cement— O., Wn. Pa., W .V a.. . Bbls. 1,205 + 3 2 .7 2,694 + 5 .4 Electric Power— O., Pa., K y . . . kw hrs 1,230* + 2 .0 2,612* + 3 . 8 Petroleum— O., Pa., K y ...........Bbls. 2,267* + 2 6 .0 4,638* + 2 3 .1 ® — 14.4 * — 16.3 Shoes............................................. Pairs. Tirea, U. S...................................... Casings 3,923* — 30.9 11,174 — 29.6 1 M onthly average 4 January-February * Actual number * Confidential • February 6 Preliminary Retail and Wholesale Trade (1930 compared with 1929) Percentage Increase or Decrease SALES SALES STOCKS First Mar.M ar.3 Mos. Mar. Mar. DEPARTMENT S T O R E S (58) Cincinnati. Cleveland.. Columbus.. Dayton----Pittsburgh. Toledo-----Diatrict...................................... — 28.5 — 14.0 — 13.3 — 11.1 — 15.3 — 15.4 — 2 4.4 — 2 7.0 — 19.9 — 16.2 — 2 0.4 — 6 .6 — 10.2 — 6.1 — 11.1 — 10.5 — 19.7 — 17.1 — 14.4 — 11.1 — 2 0.6 — 2.5 — 8 .3 — 6 .4 — 12.4 — 1 .4 + 6 .3 — 3 .9 — 1.5 — 5 .0 — 6 0 .9 — 23.2 — 28.8 — 22.6 — 27.8 — 4 2.5 — 14.7 — 2 0 .0 — 12.8 — 17.9 — + + + — 20.4 — 2 4.0 — 9 .8 — 24.7 — 5 0 .8 — 34*9 — 2 7.6 — 18.2 — 15.1 — 16.5 — 15.2 — 3 7.6 — 25.1 — 2 0.6 — 1 .0 — 4 .5 + 0J — 2 5 — 15.3 + 6 .8 — 5 .9 — 1 .4 — 5 .9 + 0 .7 + 7 .2 — 0 .2 — 15.7 — 6 .! — 18.6 — 39.8 — 13.3 + 4 .4 — 3.1 — 4 .9 — 4 .6 — 2 .0 + 4 .9 — 0 .5 — 1 3.6 — 10.4 — 13.2 — 29.1 W E A R IN G A P P A R E L (17) Other Cities.............. District.................... F U R N IT U R E (46) Columbus... Dayton........ Toledo.......... Other Cities. C H A IN STORE* Drugs— District ( 3 ) ............................ Groceries— District ( 6 ) ...................... W H OLE SA LE G R O C E R IE S (41) A kron..................................................... Cleveland.. Erie............ Pittsburgh. Toledo____ District.............................................. W H OLESALE D R Y GOODS (11). W H OLE SA LE DRUGS (1 3 )........... W H OLESALE SHOES ( 5 ) ......................... *Sales per individual unit operated. 1.2 0 .9 2.3 1 .0 Commercial Failures — Dept. Stores (55 firms). — Wholesale Drugs (13 fii — Chain D rugs (3 firm s )* * .. P r o d u c t io n - Mar. 1928 119 125 191 132 140 101 117 88 93 93 96 95 140 125 76 71 102 138 103 M ar., Mar. 1927 1926 118 110 132 147 107 85 132 130 141 132 98 98 117 120 89 92 94 92 107 104 98 100 99 105 119 139 141 146 125 103 105 52 91 98 127 121 112 99 Debits to Individual Accounts (Thousands of Dollars) 5 weeks % change ending April 23, from 1930 1929 126,394 — 12.2 13,996 + 1 .0 61,060 — 12.3 486,343 — 13.9 1,088,201 — 4 .4 226,448 — 1.5 3,886 — 7 .2 110,022 — 12.3 46,432 + 2 .2 6,463 — 5 .4 21,851 — 10.8 18,755 — 13.4 4.974 — 6 .2 25,495 — 32.3 16,802 — 9 .3 6,907 — 14.2 14,010 — 6 .3 21,036 — 6 .0 1,126,885 — 14.2 27,804 — 6 .3 11,952 — 22.6 212,922 — 26.4 15,076 — 17.9 53,193 — 11.6 88,012 — 7.3 13,028 — 22.1 3,847,947 — 11.2 A k r o n .......................... B u tle r .......................... C a n to n ........................ C in cin n a ti................. C le v e la n d .................. C o lu m b u s .................. C o n n e lls v ille ............ D a y t o n ....................... E r ie .............................. F ra n k lin ..................... G re e n sb u rg ............... H a m ilt o n ................... H o m e s te a d ................ L e x in g to n ................... L im a ............................ L o ra in ......................... M id d le t o w n .............. Oil C i t y ..................... P itts b u r g h ................ S p rin g fie ld ................ S te u b e n v ille .............. T o l e d o ......................... W a rre n ....................... W h e e lin g .................... Y o u n g s t o w n ............. Z a n e sv ille .................. Year to date, 1930 (D ec. 31Apr. 23) 388,953 44,271 191,854 1,490,834 3,235,669 699,720 12,742 372,592 148,638 20,351 70,883 60,316 16,232 121,399 51,287 21,776 45,075 62,165 3,600,319 91,243 39,719 718,567 49,460 169,698 268,973 38,652 12,031,388 Year to % date, 1929 change (Jan. 2from Apr. 24) 1929 450,101 — 13.6 43,978 + 0 .7 213,930 — 10.3 1,765,536 — 15.6 3,447,560 — 6 .1 715,748 — 2 .2 13,648 — 6 .6 413,654 — 9 .9 143,536 + 3 .6 20,780 — 2.1 74,953 — 5 .4 63,472 — 5 .0 17,562 — 7 .6 133,478 — 9 .0 . 61,851 — 17.1 22,963 — 5 .2 48,256 — 6 .6 67,365 — 7 .7 4,126,364 — 12.7 96,418 — 5 .4 46,041 — 13.7 902,025 — 20.3 55,667 — 11.2 198,686 — 14.6 291,882 — 7 .8 49.823 — 22.4 13,485,277 — 10.8 Building Operations (Value o f Permits) A kron.............................. C an ton.......................... Cincinnati.................... . Garfield H e igh ts.. . L akew ood ................ R ocky R iv e r ........... Shaker Heights, . . , C ovington, K y ........... . Lexington, K y ............. + '6 ! s — 5 .8 Mar. 1929 131 133 94 129 158 105 117 93 88 98 95 89 99 97 88 76 97 144 92 ♦February. **Per individual unit operated, tlncludes 3 shoe firms. Cleveland suburbs: Cleveland Heights. East C le v e la n d .. . . — 4 .3 — 1.1 Mar. 1930 117 116 119 . , 126 169 88 110 . . 78 87 79 87 . . 88 126 54 .. 81 . . 100 123 . . 146 79 Pittsburgh, P a ............ . Springfield.................... T o le d o ........................... . W heeling, W . Va Youngstow n.................. T o ta l........................... . Per Cent Per Cent change March Jan.-M ar. Jan.-Mar. change from 1929 1930 from 1929 1929 1930 611,903 — 80.1 1,908,081 4,874,630 — 60.9 4,935 — 6 5.0 45,771 19,829 + 1 3 0 .8 28,562 — 75.5 69,292 164,576 — 57.9 67,440 — 76.4 669,365 541,005 + 2 3 .7 6,267,980 + 1 8 1 .2 12,714,438 6,687,375 + 9 0 .1 1,469,925 — 4 7 .8 6,835,775 8,120,175 — 15.8 176,225 2,090 197,775 138,500 64,106 113,990 111,975 428,250 680,350 65,400 1,879,327 190,194 116,390 95,270 16,135 30,125 1,783,623 46,715 2,651,836 36,361 136,SOS 17,412,187 — 59.4 — 9 9.8 — 64.5 + 3 0 .7 — 66.5 — 49.4 — 67.1 — 39.5 — 52.1 — 62.5 + 5 6 .0 — 51.5 — 4 8 .4 — 17.4 — 88.3 — 31.6 — 39.6 — 57.0 + 9 6 .7 — 6 6 .4 — 5 8.0 — 16.3 667.960 641,995 253,950 1,157,899 711,905 453,880 255,000 198.800 414,066 285,541 318,810 462,610 210,515 480,830 995,750 1,336,170 1,277,700 2,633,050 413,150 170.800 2,377,398 2,260,159 327,664 3,091,640 368,780 269,058 472,514 201,025 288.960 177,685 56,900 65,025 3,877,465 6,433,539 154,530 316,870 3,284,602 2,740,383 146,752 259,836 294,155 822,876 38,483,462 45,795,047 + 4 .0 — 78.1 — 36.2 — 22.0 + 4 5 .0 — 31.1 — 56.2 — 25.5 — 51.5 — 58.7 + 5 .2 — 89.4 — 27.0 — 57.5 + 6 2 .6 — 12.5 — 39.7 — 51.2 + 1 9 .9 — 43.5 — 64.3 — 16.0 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 8 Summary of National Business Conditions By the Federal Reserye Board Industrial production declined in March, while factory employment and payrolls showed little change, and wholesale prices continued to decline. There was an increase in construction, as is usual at this season. In terest rates continued to decline in the first three weeks o f March, but later became somewhat firmer. Production Index number of production of manufactures and minerals combined, adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-25 average = 100). Latest figure— March, 103. FACTORVD*4PLOYMENT ANIDF*YRC5LLS /\ A 'v f /w'A w1v\V PER CENT pHretNT I20i 120 t 1925 1926 1927 1928 (929 1930 Index numbers of factory employment and payrolls* without adjustment for seasonal varia tions (1923-25 average = 100). Latest figures, March, employment 92.7, payrolls 98.0. Production in basic industries declined in March, contrary to the usual seasonal trend. Average daily output o f steel, coal and copper decreased substantially, while output o f cotton and wool textiles declined at about the usual seasonal rate. Production o f automobiles and lumber increased. F or the first quarter o f the year, taken as a whole, output o f basic industries was considerably smaller than in the unusually active first quarter of 1929 and smaller than in any other first quarter since 1925. In the steel and automobile industries output fo r the first three months, though smaller than in 1929, was about the same as in the corresponding months in 1928, while in most o f the other major industries it was smaller than in either o f the two preceding years. Building contracts awarded increased substantially in March as is usual at this season, according to reports of the F. W . Dodge Corporation. In comparison with a year ago, a large increase in contracts fo r public works and utilities was more than offset by a decrease in residential build ing. Average daily awards in the first half o f A pril were somewhat larger than in March, but continued smaller than a year ago. Employment Factory employment and payrolls, which usually increase during March changed little from February and continued to be considerably smaller than in other recent years. The number o f workers employed in the auto mobile industry increased somewhat less than is usual at this season and reductions in employment and in earnings were reported in the iron and steel, machinery and car building industries. Distribution Freight car loadings which have been at low levels in recent months did not show the usual seasonal increase during March. Department store sales continued in smaller volume than a year ago. Wholesale Prices Monthly averages of weekly figures for re porting member banks in leading cities. Latest figures are averages of first three weeks In April* MONEY 1IATES IN HIEW YORK .... A AT ¥ v w f P a p * B<.tAt fStmAGacetm mm CantM n — i__________ - i 1 1 Monthly rates in the open market In New York: commercial paper rate on 4-6 month paper. Acceptance rata on 90-day bankers* acceptances. Latest figures are averages of first SO days In April* Wholesale prices, which began to decline last summer, continued to move downward in March to the lowest level since 1916, the decline reflecting chiefly, sharp decreases in prices of agricultural products. Prices of im ported raw materials, such as sugar, coffee and silk, fluctuated around the low levels reached in February. The price of silver advanced slightly from the low point reached early in March. In the last week in March and the first week in April there were ad vances in prices of agricultural products, especially grains and cotton, while the price o f steel declined. On April 15, the price of copper was sharply reduced and in the same week prices o f a number o f other important commodities also declined. Bank Credit A t member banks in leading cities, total loans and investments in creased in the four week period ending April 16, reflecting a growth o f $184,000,000 in loans on securities and $80,000,000 in investments, offset in part by a further decrease of $186,000,000 in “ all other” loans. Member bank indebtedness at the Reserve banks and total reserve bank credit declined further between the weeks ending March 15 and A pril 12 reflecting primarily additional imports o f gold from the Orient. ’ In the third week o f March, money rates in the open market reached the lowest levels since 1924, but in the next three weeks were somewhat firmer. Rates on commercial paper declined to a range o f 3% -4 per cent on March 24 and remained steady at that level; rates o f 60-90 day bankers’ acceptances were reduced to 2% per cent on March 20, but later advanced to 3 per cent. Bond yields, after declining during most of March, increasftrf gradually in the first half o f April. During April the rediscount rates o f the Federal reserve banks o f R ich mond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Minneapolis and Dallas were reduced to 4 per cent, the rate prevailing at all o f the reserve banks except New York where the rate is per cent.
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