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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Vol. 9 Cleveland, Ohio, May 1, 1927 The improvement in the general business situation which became noticeable in February, continued in March. April, however, was accompanied by recessionary ten dencies in important industries, such as iron and steel, and conditions at present are irregular. It is not clear as yet whether or not the slackening in April is more than the seasonal decline which has appeared in that month during the past few years. With regard to the first quarter, business started com paratively slowly in January following a brief but sizable slump in the last two months of 1926. But February and March both improved more than seasonally, with the re sult that industrial profits for the quarter appear to be slightly larger than in 1926, according to the information now available. Net earnings of 50 industrial corporations in the United States, whose quarterly figures have been published up to April 25, amounted to $55,246,000 in the first quarter of 1927, as compared with $53,608,000 last year, a gain of 3.1 per cent. Increases were reported by 32 companies, and decreases by 18. In the Fourth District, reports with regard to first quarter earnings have been received by this bank from 35 large manufacturing establishments, representing 19 types of business. Of the total, an increase in net earnings for the first quarter as compared with last year is reported by 14 concerns; a decline by 12; and "no change” by 9. In the District, therefore, first quarter business on the whole was equal to or a little better than in 1926, but with wide variations as between different industries. Financial Conditions Bills discounted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland rose from 38 millions on March 16th to 52 millions on April 13th, the latter figure being 12 millions lower than a year ago. Government securities held declined, while acceptance holdings were practically unchanged. Federal reserve note circulation increased from 202 to 214 mil lion^ while deposits fell off slightly. A further rise in commercial loans made by reporting member banks in this District took place between March 16th and April 13th. Loans secured by stocks and bonds were lower, as were investments. Both demand and time deposits declined. The prevailing interest rate in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, No. 5 and Cincinnati on prime commercial paper is 6 per cent. On stock exchange collateral loans, the range is from 5 to 6 per cent. Debits to individual accounts at 13 large centers in this District amounted to $2,659,473,000 in March, as com pared with $2,472,654,000 in March, 1926, and $2,440,874,000 in February, 1927. Commercial failures in the Fourth District numbered 193 in March, as against 162 in February and 214 a year ago. Liabilities aggregated $4,724,804 in March, $3,494,055 in February, and $3,738,723 a year ago. In the United States, there were 2143 failures in March, 2035 in February, and 1984 a year ago. Federal Reserve Bank o f Cleveland Federal Reserve System (In Millions) (In Millions) Apr.13, Apr.14, Mar. 16, Apr.13, Apr.14, Mar.16, 1927 1926 1927 1927 1926 1927 Gold reserves ....................... 295 279 303 3,031 2,782 3,024 Discounts ............................... 52 64 38 426 677 331 20 21 22 257 274 219 Acceptances ........................... U. S. Securities..................... 37 36 44 355 377 475 Total bills and securities.. 108 122 104 1,040 1,242 1,027 Federal Reserve notes in cir culation ............................... 214 202 203 1,744 1,681 1,706 Total deposits ....................... 177 185 200 2,307 2,347 2,323 Reporting Member Banks Fourth District United States (In Millions) (In Millions) Apr.13, Apr.14, Mar.16, Apr.13, Apr.14, Mar.16, 1927 1926 1927 1927 1926 1927 Loans secured by stocks and bonds ................................... 581 All other ............................... 804 Total loans ........................... 1,385 Investments ........................... 653 Demand deposits ................. 1,050 Time deposits ....................... 841 Iron and Steel 531 793 1,324 635 1,003 786 588 794 1,382 679 1,086 845 5.502 5,256 5,561 8,843 8,641 8,824 14.345 13,897 14,385 5,855 5,600 6,959 13,059 12,898 13,236 6,032 5,505 6,000 April was a month of reaction in steel and of inaction in pig iron. The mo mentum of a record March in the pro duction of steel sustained the first half of April, but in the last half a gradual downturn was apparent. Prices became more irregular as the month wore on, this being evident more in a broader application of preferred prices than in a definite breaking of published levels. Pig iron reflected a between-quarters stagnation. In point of production and new business, however, April was a shade better than April, 1926, but from a price situation, it was much less satisfactory. In many steel lines a large portion of the quieter 2 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW market can be attributed to failure of the automobile industry to parallel last year's rate. The sheet industry in particular has suffered from the extreme competition created by the smaller requirements o f the industry and a precarious situation for many independent makers has arisen. Despite a reduction in sheet bars, present levels o f sheets are frequently below mill costs. The automo bile industry made a substantial gain in March, pro ducing in the United States, 386,721 units compared with 298,750 in February, but the comparison with last March shows a heavy reduction from the 422,728 of that month. Semifinished material at Pittsburgh and Youngstown receded 50 cents to $1.00 in April, sheet bars now being held at $33.50 to $34.00, slabs and billets at $33.00, and wire rods at $42.00. Users bought even more closely in April and specifications received by producers underwent a severe check. Coke weakened progressively during April despite the bituminous coal strike and distress lots at the close o f April were selling for 25 cents and more per ton under the market at the close o f March. Coke producers have been willing to contract at $3.50, whereas they asked $4.00 when the strike broke. No furnace or foundry has ex perienced any difficulty in obtaining plentiful supplies of fuel. Pig iron remained largely unchanged, both as to pro duction and price, in April. This was largely because most melters had contracted liberally for their second quarter needs, the third quarter was too distant to con sider, and the melt was not such as to compel the pur chase of rounding-out supplies. Although $1.90 (Pitts burgh) has been the open market for steel bars, plates and shapes for the general run of business, this level has been shaded for attractive orders. Hot rolled strip prices at $2.10 (Pittsburgh) for the wide and $2.30 (Pitts burgh) fo r the narrow widths have held fairly well. Tin plate demand revived late in April when some July specifications were submitted and the 85 per cent gait held through the month. A new high in steel ingot production was set in March with 4,559,400 tons which compared with 3,831,397 tons in February and 4,488,362 tons in March, 1926, the previous high. The daily average rate in March was 168,867 tons. March pig iron production totaled 3,482,223 tons against 2,940,604 tons in February and 3,458,171 tons in March, 1926. The month's total was the third highest for any March in history. o f going through the usual seasonal decline. Prices continued to sag up to the close of March; since then they have recovered, but on April 13th were only slightly higher than a month previously. Consumers1 demand as yet has not increased to any extent, and the sluggishness o f the market is doubtless caused by the very large stocks of storage coal in the hands o f the big industrial users. Dealers and operators in the Fourth District state that storage stocks have been very little affected so fa r by the strike, and that both industrial and public demand remains apathetic. The union mines in Ohio and Penn sylvania, o f course, are shut down, with occasional ex ceptions where mines have reopened under the nonunion wage scale. Activity in the nonunion fields in Kentucky and W est Virginia continues at a high rate. Rubber and Tires Conditions in this industry are much better than a year ago. Good weather has brought an early opening to the driving season, and both production and shipments have been very heavy in March and April. In spite o f low tire prices, the high rate of activity, together with the stability o f crude rubber prices, have enabled tire man ufacturers to show first quarter earnings considerably in excess of the corresponding period o f 1926. Dealers' stocks of casings on April 1 averaged 68.8 per dealer, according to the Department of Commerce, this being somewhat higher than the two preceding years (63.9 in 1926 and 62.2 in 1925). Inner tubes per dealer were 114.7, lower than 1926 but higher than 1925. The price o f crude rubber has changed but little during the past several weeks. On February 18 it was 39 cents a pound; on March 18 it had advanced to 42.3 cents* but by April 8 a decline to 41.6 cents had taken place. Cotton likewise has remained virtually unchanged. Sales of mechanical rubber goods in the first quarter are reported to have been somewhat disappointing. Both volume o f goods sold and profits are stated to be matel’ially lower than last year. Automobiles Automobile production in the United States made the usual seasonal gain in March over February, but was still materially below last year. The output of cars and trucks in March was 386,721 as compared with 422 728 a year ago. For the first quarter of 1927, production amounted to 919,687 cars and trucks; in 1926 to 1 077,771 cars and trucks. A fter holding at $36.81 for the first half o f April, the Iron Trade Review composite of fourteen leading iron and steel products slumped off to below $36.65 in the last half of the month. A year ago this barometer stood at $38.48. Competition is still very keen as is evidenced by the various price cuts of recent months. Accessory manu facturers in general are reported to be doing well. Fourth District truck and parts manufacturers report business as being spotty. Coal Clothing The soft coal strike appears to have had very little effect upon general busi ness. Production fell off sharply after April 1st, but for the week ending April 9th it was still ahead o f any of the four preceding years except 1926, owing to the fact that during the entire first quarter the output held up at record high levels instead As has been the case for some time, irregular conditions prevail in the cloth ing industry. Makers o f woolens are still experiencing great difficulty in showing profits, as prices are so close to the level of production costs. Easter sales o f women’s dresses have been good and' this branch o f the industry appears to be on a ’satis THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW factory basis. Men’s underwear manufacturers are do ing a little better than a year ago. The wholesale branch of the industry continues in a state of depression. Monthly sales of reporting firms in the Fourth District during the past two years have been steadily less than in the same month in the preceding year; in fact, only six out of the past 27 months have shown gains over the previous year. Part of the slump in sales is due to falling prices; but even after removing the price element, sales have shown a sagging tendency. For the first quarter of 1927, sales were 9.8 per cent less than in 1926; for March, they decreased 7.3 per cent. In retail clothing, department store sales in March gained 3 per cent over a year ago in women's dresses, 8.8 in misses’ ready-to-wear, 42.2 in sweaters, 12.5 in silk underwear, 6.2 in house dresses, 20.7 in negligees, 6.7 in petticoats, 3.8 in hosiery, and 1.6 per cent in in fants’ wear. On the other hand, men’s clothing decreased 11.8 per cent, men’s furnishings 4.9, and women’s coats 1.9, and losses also took place in boys’ wear, 22.4; juniors’ ready-to-wear, 3.2; corsets, 3.3; and muslin underwear, 0.8 per cent. Shoes Cincinnati shoe manufacturers report business as the same or better than a year ago, and a slight improvement in first quarter net earnings is indicated. Preliminary Fourth District production figures for March show a gain of nearly 6 per cent over February, output in the latter month being about 15 per cent greater than last year* Sales of reporting wholesale shoe houses in this Dis trict in March were 0.3 per cent under 1926, and in the first quarter were 3.4 per cent less. March gained 50 per cent over February. In retail stores, sales of both men’s and women’s shoes in March were under last year’s figures—7 per cent in the case of men’s and 5 per cent in women’s shoes. General Manufacturing After a generally poor start in 1927, most lines of manufacture in this Dis trict have expanded their operations to the point where activity in April has been about up to last year. A slackening tendency here and there has recently appeared, but this was also true in various lines about the same time in 1926 and 1925. Keen com petition has had a tendency to reduce profit margins, particularly among the smaller concerns. In one or two cases, first quarter production actually exceeded that of last year while net earnings were less. Employment is about normal for the most part; a few establishments re port “below normal.” Better weather than a year ago has favored the paint trade. Improvement has recently taken place, and the outlook is satisfactory. Operations in the electrical sup ply industry are easing off, with a reduction in orders, and the same is true of the paper trade. A recovery in the demand for window glass is reported. The boxboard mills are operating at high levels, and conditions in this line have improved. Business of agricultural im plement manufacturers is about the same as a year ago. 3 The stove business is dull; demand for hotel and restaur ant equipment has fallen off considerably, and prices have weakened. Other lines show no great changes. Agriculture Spring weather has been generally fav orable for farm operations and the season is much farther advanced than it was at this time last year. Interest in the Fourth District, at this time, centers largely on fruit prospects, but the season is not yet sufficiently advanced to obtain any accurate idea of the size of this year’s fruit crops. While the warm weather in mid-March started the buds prematurely, the cold weather which followed was not of sufficient intensity to cause more than slight damage. Conditions of wheat, rye and pasture are somewhat above average, being 84.5, 86.4, and 91 per cent of nor mal for April, as compared with 79.8, 85.9, and 77 per cent of the ten year average, respectively. Reports indicate a large and excellent crop of spring lambs. There was an early and abundant pasture, the lambing season was favorable, the mortality of lambs was low, and they are unusually thrifty and in good condition. Marketings are earlier and of a better quality than last year. Reports to the Department of Agriculture of inten tions to plant, in the entire United States, indicate in creased acreage in the following crops: corn, 2 per cent; oats, 8 per cent; barley, 14 per cent; and potatoes, 15 per cent. The average condition of winter wheat for the United States on April 1, 1927, was 84.5 per cent of normal, compared with 84.1 per cent for 1926, 68.7 for 1925, and 79.8, the average condition for the past ten years on April 1st. Tobacco The Department of Agriculture’s “ In tention to plant” report as of March 1 indicates a decrease of 21.5 per cent in the 1927 burley tobacco crop as compared with 1926. This is not a forecast of actual acreage to be planted, but is merely the expression of the farmers’ intentions at the time of making their reports. The very low prices received for burley during the past season have without doubt been the main factor in the farmers’ intention to reduce the acreage this year. About 39 million pounds of burley were sold in March, according to the Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture’s report, the price averaging 12% cents a pound. This represents a still further weakening of prices, although slight, from February. The 1926 selling season is now over. On April 6, it was announced by the Burley To bacco Growers’ Association that a seven-year contract would be submitted to the tobacco growers in the burley growing regions, the old membership contracts having expired. In case 75 per cent of the 1926 production is not signed up by November 1st, 1927, the 1927 crop will be sold at auction without pooling of either tobacco or proceeds. The Association also announced that its hold ings of old crops now amount to 90 million pounds, but that the entire 1926 crop has been sold and delivered, the balance of the money due to growers in this crop to be distributed soon. Total production of tobacco in the United States in 4 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 1926 was 1,323,388,000 pounds, as compared with 1,376,628.000 in 1925, The Kentucky burley crop in 1926 was 223.121.000 pounds, an increase of 16,400,000 pounds over 1925. The average price secured on the Kentucky burley crop for 1926 was 14% cents a pound, as compared with 19 cents in 1925, and with 18% cents for all types in the country in 1926. Cigarette output in the United States in 1926 totaled 89.460.000.000, a gain of 7,000,000,000 during the year* The people of this country consumed 80 billion cigarettes during the year, or approximately 700 per capita. Building According to Bradstreet’s, building per mits issued during March in 178 cities in the United States aggregated $335,623.000, or a loss of 9.1 per cent from last year. The first quarter showed a decrease of 5.4 per cent. A different picture for March is presented by the Dodge report on contracts awarded, which includes various forms of construction not covered by building permits. Contracts awarded in March in 37 eastern states were $620,738,000, a gain of 3.8 per cent over a year ago, and furthermore, building projects contemplated at the end of March amounted to $1,198,090,000, a gain of about 17 per cent over a year ago. For the first quarter of 1927, awards aggregated $1,398,776,000, as compared with $1,462,938,000 in the same period of 1926, a loss of 4.4 per cent. In the Fourth District, March contracts awarded were about 25 per cent under last year, and were slightly lower for the quarter. Projects contemplated at the Building Operations Cleveland Heights, and Lakewood, while large gains were made in Barberton, Parma, Rocky River, Columbus, Day ton, Hamilton, Lima, Newark, Toledo, and Youngstown. Most of the cities showed gains, and in fact the entire District loss is accounted for by a $9,000,000 drop in Cleveland, which in turn was due to the issuance of one very large permit in March, 1926. Building Materials On the whole, April has brought some improvement to the lumber trade in this District after a mediocre first quarter. Good weather in April has been a favorable factor. Sev eral manufacturers state that business is now about equal to that of a year ago, although the general feel ing is still one of caution and conservatism. Buyers are still adhering closely to the “ hand-to-mouth” method of purchasing, and competition in the industry is very keen. Some curtailment of production is reported. Prices of soft woods continued to improve slightly during the month, but hardwoods have weakened. Cement production for Ohio, Western Pennsylvania and West Virginia totaled 1,265,000 barrels in March, over twice as great as a year ago. Shipments were 925,000 barrels, a gain of 36 per cent, while stocks at the end of the month were 3,283,000 barrels, a material increase both over February and over March 31, 1926. In the United States, stocks continued at record high levels at the end of March, the seasonal peak usually being reached about this time. The Aberthaw index of industrial building costs con tinued at 193 on April 1st. Retail Trade March, 1927 (Valuation of Permits) & change w . % change March from Jan.-Mar. Jan.-Mar. from 1927 1926 1927 1926 1926 1,540,328 — 27.5 5,328,366 3,547,541 +50.2 45,630 — H).8 135,825 +8.8 124,890 89,395 +198.6 132,015 95,163 + 38.7 297,341 — 58.1 765,729 1,263,250 — 39.4 2,053,935 — 20.8 5,074,480 4,890,820 + 3 .8 3,142,800 — 75.1 7,262,900 18,339,925 — 60.4 Sales of 64 department stores in the Fourth District in March were 1.4 per cent under the same month a year ago and first quarter sales were 0.7 per cent less. For March, Columbus made a gain of 8 per cent, and in creases also took place in Toledo and Youngstown. These same cities together with Cincinnati showed gains for the first quarter. Akron...................... Ashtabula............... Barberton............... Canton.................... Cincinnati.............. Cleveland............... ^ ** suburbs: Cleve. Heights... East Cleveland.. Euclid................. Garfield Heights. Lakewood........... Parma................. Rocky River___ Shaker Heights.. Columbus............... Covington, Ky....... Dayton................... Erie, Pa.................. Hamilton................ Lexington, Ky........ Lima....................... Newark................... Pittsburgh, Pa....... Springfield.............. Toledo..................... Wheeling, W. V a... Youngstown........... 429,290 187,209 171,365 271,600 109,959 199,030 80 325 511,975 4,362,200 181,300 1,022,141 777,977 399,266 146,670 51,460 83,818 3,114,634 198,179 2,184,163 215,413 1,020,705 — 49.1 + 2 0 .5 + 36.1 + 32.2 — 83.1 +152.0 + 52.3 — 11.5 +111.9 + 3 5 .0 + 6 0 .0 +36.1 + 102.9 — 10.0 + 149.6 + 5 3 .9 — 23.8 — 15.5 + 53.8 + 3 6 .0 + 75.2 1,013,922 302,845 322,690 421.500 254,442 560,346 354,330 1,586,575 7,160,200 316,700 2,186,429 1,192,861 532.500 468,415 93,241 115,918 8,515,034 315,469 3,407,774 639,360 1,703,405 1,922,525 310,427 349,865 459,700 1,050,675 213,915 100,450 1,212,130 4,256,400 305,200 1,386,601 828,210 453,398 602,591 505,560 69,775 10,015,398 340,785 2,557,654 288,741 1,901.985 — 47.3 — 2.4 — 7.8 — 8.3 — 75.8 +161.9 +252.7 + 30.9 Totals.................. 22,888,108 26.5 50,163,271 57,393,397 — 12.6 Stocks on hand at the end of March were 0 8 nei cent less than a year ago, but 9.2 per cent above February. The stock turnover rate for March was .255 oi 8.31 times a year. For the quarter, it was .727’ oi 2.91 times a year. For 47 stores reporting their credit sales, the percentage of such sales in March to the total was 58.8, and for 19 firms reporting instalment sales the percentage of instalment sales to the total was 6 8* and of 30-day charge sales to the total was 51.2 Col lections in March were 38.8 per cent of accounts receiv able on February 28; for the 19 firms showing collection^ on both 30-day and instalment accounts, the percental of collections on the former was 45.2, and on the i«** was 17.9 per cent. tel end of March were roughly about 30 per cent less than a year ago. Residential and public utility buildings ac counted for two-thirds of the awards in March. Turning to individual cities, 27 centers in this District reported building permits in March of $22,888,108, a decline of 26.5 per cent from last March. Substantial decreases took place in Ashtabula, Canton, Cleveland, Twenty-five out of 52 separate departments showed gains in March sales over last year. Increases of mors than ten per cent took place in jewelry, 14.2; umbrellas 35.5; women’s skirts, 72.4; sweaters, 42.2; silk unde ’ wear, 12.5; negligees, 20.7; draperies, 12.5; an<j bo k 14.6. Decreases of more than 10 per cent occurred hi woolen dress goods, 16.5; cotton dress goods 15 8* n v wear, 16.3; ribbons, 29.0; handkerchiefs, 10.2* silvern*0 +68.2 + 3 .8 + 57.7 + 44.0 + 17.4 — 22.3 — 81.6 +66.1 — 15.0 — 7.4 + 3 3 .2 +121.4 — 10.4 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 23.0; men’s clothing, 11.8; boys’ wear, 22.4; gloves, 14.5; millinery, 10.4; toys, 14.7; luggage, 12.1; and musical instruments, 20.9. Percentage changes in the main departments were as follows: % Gain or Loss over March, 1926 Silks and Velvets .................................................... — 9.1 Men's Clothing ...................................................... — 11.8 Men's Furnishings .................................................. — 4.9 — 1.9 Women’s Coats ........................................................ Women’s Dresses .................................................. -j-3.0 Millinery .................................................................. — 10.4 Shoes .......................................................................... — 6.3 Furniture .................................................................. f3.6 Floor Coverings .................... ................................. +0.2 Draperies, Lamps, Shades .................................... +11.8 This bank’s index o f sales of 101 wholesale firms (1919-1923—100) stood at 88 in March, this being the lowest in seven years with the exception of 1922. The dry goods index was 75, as compared with an average o f 81 for March o f 1923-1926; groceries— 78, as compared with an average o f 82 fo r 1923-1926; hardware— 113, against an average of 114; drugs— 127, against an aver age o f 119; shoes— 94, against an average of 90. Collections in March were larger than a year ago in drugs, hardware, and shoes, but smaller in dry goods and groceries. Stocks on hand at the beginning of April were quite generally smaller than last year. The stock turnover rate fo r dry goods in March was .368, or 4.42 times a year, and for groceries was .53, or 6.36 times a year. City Conditions Wholesale Trade Four of the five reporting wholesale lines registered decreases in March as compared with a year ago, hardware being the only line to show a gain. For the first quarter sales in all lines except drugs declined. The chart below illustrates, for nine leading cities in the Fourth District, the changes during the last five years in three important business barometers— bank debits, department store sales, and building permits (valuation). The base (100) fo r each chart is the 1923-1925 average. Debits, Department Store Sales, Building Permits in Leading Cities in the Fourth Federal Reserve District 6 Base=1923-1925 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW « Fourth District Business Statistics (All figures are for Fourth District unless otherwise specified) Bank Debits (23 cities) Savings Deposits (end of month) Ohio (41 banks) Western Pennsylvania (27 banks) Total (68 banks) Commercial Failures— Number 44 44 — Liabilities Postal Receipts-—9 cities Sates— Life Insurance— Ohio and Pa. 44 — Dept. Stores— (50 firms) *' — Wholesale Grocery (51 firms) 44 — “ Dry Goods — (16 “ > 44 — 44 Hardware — (16 44 ) “ Drugs — (15 44 ) Building Permits, Valuation— 27 cities Production — Pig Iron, U. S. *• — Steel Ingots, U. S. “ — Automobiles, U. S. Passenger Cars Trucks 44 — Bituminous Coal, 4th Dist. »• — Cement: Ohio, W. Va., Wn. Pa. 44 — Electric Power: Ohio, Pa., Ky. *4 — Petroleum,: Ohio, Pa., Ky. 44 — Shoes, 4th Dist. — Tires, U. S. Bituminous Coal Shipments (from Lake Erie ports) Iron Ore Receipts (at Lake Erie ports) 1 3 months* average ** Jan.-Feb. Feb*„ . 4 Figures Confidential Millions of dollars Thous. of dollars Actual Number Thous. of dollars Thous. of Tons Actual Number Thous. of Tons 44 44 barrels Millions o f k.w. hours Thous. of barrels 44 44 pairs 44 44 casings 44 44 tons Retail and Wholesale Trade DEPARTM ENT STORES Akron........................................... Cincinnati.................................... Cleveland..................................... Columbus.................................... Dayton........................................ Pittsburgh................................... Toledo........................................ Wheeling..................................... Youngstown................................ Other Cities................................. District........................................ No. of reports Percentage Increase or Decrease SALES SALES March, 1927 Jan.-Mar. 1927 compared with compared with Jan.-Mar. 1926 March, 1926 5 7 6 7 3 7 4 5 3 17 64 — 2.2 — 1.1 — 1.3 + 8 .0 — 3.9 — 4.5 + 3 .1 — 5.3 + 3 .0 + 4 .6 — 1.4 —0.2 + 0 .1 — 1.3 + 11.4 + 3 .1 —4.5 + 5 .9 — 3.5 + 4 .3 + 2 .9 —0.7 WEARING APPAREL Cincinnati................................... Cleveland..................................... Other Cities................................. District........................................ 6 3 10 19 + 0 .1 + 4 .0 + 3 .5 + 2 .6 + 6 .1 + 2 .7 + 4 .9 + 4 .5 FURNITURE Canton......................................... Cincinnati................................... Cleveland..................................... Columbus.................................... Dayton........................................ Toledo.......................................... Other Cities................................. District........................................ 3 11 7 15 4 6 7 53 + 25.9 — 3.1 — 14.7 — 17.1 + 33.5 — 2.5 + 5 .4 — 3.7 3 5 — 5.2 — 8.3 —4 .0 — 7.6 3 — 10.0 —0.5 — 0.3 — 7.2 —0.1 — 8.4 — 3.3 — 3.0 — 7.3 — 0.9 + 0 .7 —0.3 — 11.9 + 2 .5 — 3.5 — 7.7 —4.5 — 7.1 — 5.0 — 1.7 — 9.8 + 2 .2 —0.7 — 3.4 CHAIN STORES* Groceries— District..................... WHOLESALE GROCERIES .7 4 4 8 Toledo.......................................... Other Cities................................. District........................................ WHOLESALE DRY GOODS. WHOLESALE DRUGS............ WHOLESALE HARDW ARE. WHOLESALE SHOES............ 3 27 52 16 15 16 5 March 1927 March 1926 3,189 % Change Jan.-Mar. 1927 Jan.-Mar. 1926 Change 2,969 + 7 .4 9,480 8,869 + 6 .9 686,102 262,261 948,363 193 4,725 3,432 117,640 22,882 6,730 3,145 2,286 2,019 22,888 3,483 4,559 638,108 239,299 877,407 214 3,739 3,382 110,036 23,364 6,915 3,394 2,270 2,037 31,159 3,442 4,488 + 7 .5 + 9 .6 + 8 .1 — 9.8 + 2 6 .4 + 1 .5 + 6 .9 — 2.1 — 2.7 — 7.3 + 0 .7 —0.9 — 26.5 + 1 .2 +16 678,108* 253,134* 931,242* 575 11,268 9,441 301,398 62,144 18,500 8,304 5,894 5,546 50,163 9,521 12,198 632,251* 236,518* 868,7691 646 13,287 9,125 275,133 63,083 19,497 9,206 5,935 5,426 57,393 9,681 12,440 + 7 .3 * + 7 .0 * + 7 .2 * 341,665 45,056 21,501* 1,265 1.065s 1,830* 381,116 41,612 20,721* 586 1,019* 1,675* 799,270 120,417 44,413* 2,657 973,801 103,970 43,273® 1,848 3,866’ 3,708* — 10.4 + 8 .3 + 3 .8 * +115.9 + 4.5* + 9.3* +14.8* + 4.3* 4 4 2 ,220 * 3,639* 4 7,732 s 2, 101* 3,389* 4 7,206* —11.0 — 15.2 + 3 .5 + 9 .5 — 1.5 — 5.1 — 9 .8 — 0 .7 +2.2 — 12.6 — 1.7 — 1.9 — 17.9 + 1 5 .8 + 2.6* + 4 3 .8 + 5 .7 * + 7 .4 * + 8 .3 * + 7 .3 * Index Numbers of Trade in the Fourth Federal Reserve District (Average Monthly Sales for the Five-Year Period 1919-1923 i Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. 1923 1924 1925 1926 Department Stores (5 0 )* .... 117 104 107 108 Wholesale Drugs (15)*......... 120 115 112 129 Wholesale Dry Goods (15)*. 110 87 85 81 Wholesale Groceries (511* .. 85 84 80 80 Wholesale Hardware (U ) * .. 123 106 113 113 Wholesale Shoes (5)*............ 118 73 79 88 101 Wholesale— All (101)*.......... 90 89 90 Chain Drugs (3 )* f................ 108 103 100 107 * Number of firms, t Per individual unit operated. • 100) Mar. 1927 106 127 75 78 113 94 88 102 Debits to Individual Accounts Cincinnati.............. Cleveland................ Connellsville, Pa... Dayton................... Erie, Pa................... Greensburg, Pa.. . . Homestead, Pa.. . . Lexington, Ky........ Middletown............ Oil City, Pa............ Pittsburgh, Pa....... Springfield.............. Steubenville........... Toledo.................... Wheeling, W. V a... Youngstown........... Total................... (In thousands of dollars) 4 weeks * > change 1927 to 1926 to < from date date Apr. 13, 1926 (Dec. 30 to (Dec. 31 to 1927 Apr. 13) Apr. 14) 89,051 — 9.4 315.104 333,259 11.185 — 2 .8 40,137 39,202 48,037 — 6 .1 168,671 174,226 389,151 + 6 .7 1,408,014 1.380,632 773,783 + 4 .8 2,854,864 2,611,304 158,007 + 1 .4 599.173 550,206 4,752 + 4 .2 18,194 17,243 92.482 + 17.7 337,491 305,816 32,012 —0.5 122,031 119,549 20,267 + 1 4 .4 76,519 75,101 3,903 + 0.05 14,696 14,472 21,003 + 7 .0 103,652 96,945 15,393 +1.6 53.694 54,975 5,936 — 7.2 19.656 20,205 9,520 — 9.6 37,494 39,591 13,731 + 2 5 .4 „ 55.851 , 45,216 1,065,385 + 2 8 .0 3.820,369 3,330.883 22,708 + 2 .4 85,632 85,662 10,548 — 2.3 38,605 38,367 238,429 + 21.9 818,064 763,296 14,695 + 9 .2 49.425 48,158 43,508 160,871 +1.1 65,675 HZ'™ — 1.2 259,149 237,477 11,776 — 5.2 43,300 44,629 3,160,937 +12.3 11,$00,656 10.60J.821 change from 1926 — 5.4 + 2 .4 — 3.2 +2.0 + 9 .3 + 8 .9 + 5 .5 + 1 0 .4 +2.1 + 1 .9 + 1 .5 + 6 .9 — 2.3 — 2.7 — 5.3 + 2 3 .5 + 1 4 .7 —0.04 +0.6 +2.6 + 7 .2 — 9.3 + 9 .1 — 3.0 ~ + sl THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 7 Summary o f National Business Conditions (By the Federal Reserve Board) Index number of production of manufactures and minerals combined, adjusted for sea sonal variations (1923-1925 = 100). Latest figure: March— 112. nuciwT 200f---- ------ '200 WHOLESALE PRICES 19?3 1925 1326 ^ S- Bureau of Labor Statistics <1913 — 100, base adopted by Bureau). Latest * n w : March— 145.3. SIUJOH5 Of OOLLMU to Industrial activity increased further in March and was larger than a year ago, while the general level o f prices continued to decline. Distribu tion o f commodities at wholesale and retail was somewhat smaller than a year ago. Production Industrial production, after increasing continuously for three months, was larger in March when allowance is made for usual seasonal changes, than in any month since last September. Output o f bituminous coal, crude petroleum, and steel ingots, and mill consumption of raw cotton in March were larger than in any previous month. Since A pril 1, however, steel mill opera tions have been somewhat curtailed, and bituminous coal output has been re duced by about 40 per cent since the beginning o f the miners' strike on April 1. The consumption of silk and wool, sugar meltings, flour produc tion, and the output o f rubber tires increased in March. Production of automobiles has shown seasonal increases since the first of the year but has been in smaller volume than a year ago. The value o f building con tracts awarded in March was larger than at any previous time, and the production of building materials has increased considerably in recent weeks. The largest increases in contracts, as compared with last year, were in the middle western states, while the largest decreases occurred in the southeastern states. In the first half of April contracts awarded were in slightly smaller volume than in the same period o f last year. Trade Sales o f department stores increased less than usual in March and were slightly smaller than last year, owing in part to the lateness o f Easter. Sales of mail order houses and chain stores, however, were somewhat larger than a year ago. Inventories of department stores increased slightly more than is usual in March in anticipation o f the expansion in retail trade before the Easter holidays, and at the end o f the month they were in about the same volume as a year ago. Wholesale trade in March continued slightly smaller than in the corresponding period a year ago. Stocks o f merchandise carried by wholesale firms were seasonally larger at the end of March than in February but in most lines continued smaller than last year. Freight car loadings which showed seasonal Increases in March de clined in the first ten days o f April, owing to the smaller shipments of coal, but continued larger than in the corresponding period o f previous years. Loadings o f miscellaneous freight and o f merchandise in less than car load lots were in large volume. Prices 1925 1926 1927 a™ra* cs. of we*kly figures for banks m 101 leading cities. Latest fla r e s are av erages for first three weekly report dates in April. Federal Reserve Board's indexes of value of bailding contracts awarded as reported by the F. W. Dod*e Corporation (1923-1925 av100). Latest figures: February—ad justed. 131; unadjusted, 151. The general level of wholesale commodity prices declined further in March, reflecting decreases in most o f the important groups o f com modities. Prices o f non-agricultural commodities as a group declined to the lowest level since the war while the average fo r agricultural products which advanced somewhat from November to February remained prac tically unchanged in March. During the first half o f April, prices o f winter wheat, sugar, cotton, silk, bituminous coal, and hides advanced; while those of hogs, crude petroleum, gasoline, and non-ferrous metals declined. Bank Credit There was some decline in volume in loans fo r commercial purposes and in loans on securities at member banks in leading cities between the middle of March and the middle o f April. Member bank holdings of United States securities, which had increased considerably in the middle of March in connection with the operations of the Treasury, have declined by more than $100,000,000 since that time but are still about $200,000,000 larger than in the early months o f the year. At the Reserve banks, total bills and securities, which have fluctuated near the $1,000,000,000 level since the end of January, showed little change during the six weeks ending April 20th. Discounts fo r member banks were in about the same volume on that date as on March 9th, while acceptances showed a decrease and holdings o f United States securities a slight increase. Index of National Business Conditions VOLUME OF CHECK PAYMENTS r ■ ------------ - PER Cl ------------ 2 I------------ ------------ I< S r-v A y V ^ A K U—---------5 I923 L I924 *925 WHOLESALE 1031 0 TRADE ------- ES5. : o 1 ...... ! I 0 -------------- ir= A y * o -------------- 0 CAR L O A D IN G S ... ...................... . . PER CENT ____ PLR CENT I50 0---- -- --150 IOO O i--- - 50 o---- A ** A A4 ▼ 1322 192} 1954 ' 3. 4. 5. (S3 1 O K V I&23 ] 1^24 ^»25 PIG IRON PRODUCTION Member T4i4 Bank 1325 Credit: >92* 'WT Loans, March— 124. °' i& yiT Time, i V V 'Tars* I&34. 19 27 LATEST FIGURES March 6. Wholesale Trade, February—82. 7. Building Permits, March— 203. March— 8. Car Loadings, March— 123. Exports of Merchandise, March— 86. 10. Bituminous Coal Production, March— 150. 11. P i* Iron Production, March— 139. 12* Automobile Production, March— 186. Investments, Member Bank Deposits: Demand, March— 120. 202. Check Payments, except New York, March— 137, Commercial Failures, March— 166. Retail Trade, March— 114. A A; \ / C7 " ^--- 100 ---- 50 ________ _____________ PER CENT “/V 2. ‘ PERCENT 150 A —145. EXPORTS OF MERCHANDISE ---- 200 COAL PRODUCTION 1923 1925 0---- 0 1. 1924 200 50 1922 1923 2©Oi 100 PER CENT 1922 IB7 'O
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