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IN THIS I S S UE A Note on Defense S p e n d in g ................... 3 1966 Patterns in Fourth District Banking . 7 Growth of Deposit-Type Financial Institutions in the Fourth District, 1947-65 . 14 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CLEVELAND Additional copies of the E C O N O M IC REV IEW m ay be obtained from the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, P.O. Box 63 87 , Cleveland, O hio 44101. Permission is granted to reproduce any material in this publication. MARCH 1967 A NOTE ON DEFENSE SPENDING The acceleration of the U. S. military effort in Vietnam has been reflected in a sharp stepup in the Federal Government's purchases of defense goods to support that effort. It is wide ly recognized that the liming and impact of such spending have posed serious problems of economic evaluation, particularly regard ing the impact on the economy. This note considers some of the emerging patterns of defense spending that seem to be taking shape for the calendar year 1967. From the second quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1966, defense spending as recorded in the national income accounts in creased by $16.4 billion (from $49.1 billion to $65.5 billion). Within that six-quarter period, defense spending increased by $8.0 billion during the four quarters from the second quarter of 1965 to the second quarter of 1966, and by $8.4 billion (at an annual rate) during the last two quarters of 1966. The substantial expansion of defense purchases in the second half of 1966 implied that Federal spending associated with the war effort in Vietnam was increasing at a more rapid rate. It may, therefore, be useful to consider the timing of defense spending, a s well a s its impact on the economy. The latter is particu larly important because the impact of defense spending on economic activity is widely rec ognized to occur when the production of defense goods takes place, for example, when workers are hired; there may also be an antic ipatory effect prior to the time defense orders are placed, for example, when announcement of a military buildup is made. Defense purchases in the national income accounts are recorded not when goods are ordered or produced, but when goods are delivered to the Federal Government—which may be far removed in time from the original order stage. The GNP figures on defense spending consequently tend to lag the actual impact on the economy of a step-up in mili tary orders, particularly when a significant proportion of the orders is for hard goods requiring lengthy production time. From this point of view, the series on defense purchases in the national income accounts may (1) in itially understate the impact of a step-up in defense orders, and (2) subsequently over state that impact. It could be, a s some have maintained, that the impact of the military buildup associated with Vietnam has already reached a peak even though defense spend ing may continue to rise in the future. The data in the tables and the accompanying dis cussion are used to indicate the reasons the stimulus from defense spending largely may now be dissipated. 3 E C O N O M IC R E V IEW Table I presents data on changes in new obligalional authority (NOA) and changes in payments for major military functions. It can be seen from the data that in three categories — military personnel, operation and main tenance, and research and development — there is a reasonably close correspondence between changes in NOA and changes in paym ents.1 These are the budget categories with the shortest lime lag between incurring 1 Defense paym ents also reflect commitments arising from previously authorized, but unobligated balances, which have been carried forward to the current fiscal year. Unobligated balances a s of the end of the fiscal year for Department of Defense total military funds are projected to decline slightly in fiscal y ears 1967 and 1968, indicating that obligations incurred will exceed new obligational authority in those years. The following fig ures also suggest that this will be the case: Departm ent of Defense— M ilitary (m illio n s of dollars) Fiscal Years 1966 1967 New Obligational A u th o rity* O bligations Incurred 1968 $63,892 $72,034 $74,674 61,836 73,493 74,846 • In clu ding supplem ental appropriations. In terms of fiscal year changes, NOA increased by $8.1 billion in fiscal 1967 while obligations incurred increased by $11.7 billion (reflecting the fact that not all NOA in fiscal y ear 1966 — or previous years — resulted in obli gations being incurred). For fiscal 1968, however, NOA for total military will increase by $2.6 billion while obli gations incurred will increase by only $1.4 billion. This su ggests that the draw ing down of unobligated balances will not be a major source of obligations incurred or expenditures in fiscal year 1968. More detailed d ata on obligations incurred, with re spect to the breakdow n in Table I, do indicate that changes in obligations incurred have tended to approxi mate changes in new obligational authority. Unfortu nately, projections of obligations incurred by military function are not published for fiscal y ears 1967 and 1968. For additional information, see Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget, The Budget of the United States Government — 1968 (Washington: U. S. Govern ment Printing Office, 1967), pp. 45, 50-51, 170-173. 4 an obligation and payment of that obligation. The behavior of the procurement category contrasts markedly to that of the above three categories. New obligational authority for procurement increased by $6.2 billion in fiscal year 1966 and by $2.9 billion in fiscal year 1967. Virtually no increase is projected for fiscal year 1968. Procurement payments, however, tend to show a lagged response. The increase in payments for procurement was $2.5 billion in fiscal year 1966, followed by $4.1 billion in fiscal year 1967, with $3.2 billion budgeted for fiscal year 1968. Fiscal year 1968 is of special interest since NOA for procurement does not show any change, while procurement payments, on the other hand, show a jump of more than $3 billion. This, of course, reflects the time lag involved in producing procurement goods (for exam ple, aircraft, missiles, ships, vehicles, ammu nition, etc.); it also represents the backlog of procurement orders due to delays in convert ing productive facilities and in handling rap idly expanding new orders (see footnote 1). The fact that NOA shows no change for fiscal year 1968 suggests that there will be no net additional stimulus to private industry due to hard goods procurement in that fiscal year even though payments will continue to increase. What stimulus there is will be due to other than hard goods procurement. Con sequently, only a portion of the rise in de fense spending in fiscal year 1968 should be interpreted a s stimulative, and will come primarily from spending on military person nel. Specifically, almost 60 percent (or $3.2 billion) of the $5.4 billion increase in defense spending (administrative budget) in fiscal year 1968 will reflect past stimulus. MARCH 1967 TABLE I C h a n g e s in N e w O b lig a tio n a l Authority (N O A ) a n d Expenditures for M ilita ry Functions F iscal Y e a rs 1965-68 (in b illio n s o f d o lla r s ) Military Personnel Fiscal Year NOA Expen ditures Operation and Maintenance NOA Expen ditures Research and Development Procurement NOA Expen ditures NOA Expen ditures $— 0.8 Other Total Military NOA Expen ditures NOA Expen ditures $0.1 $— 0.3 $— 0.6 $— 3.6 2.9 1.4 14.5 8.2 1965 $0.8 $0.6 $0.9 $0.4 $— 1.8 $— 3.5 $— 0.5 1966 2.4 2.0 2.7 2.4 6.2 2.5 0.3 0 .0 * 1967 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.9 2.9 4.1 0.4 0.4 — 2.5 0.6 8.1 12.5 1968 1.6 1.6 — 0.1 0.4 0 .0 * 3.2 0.1 0.5 1.0 — 0.4 2.6 5.4 *Less than $5 0 million. Source: Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget, The Budget of the United States G o vernm ent— 1968 (W ashington: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1967), pp. 456 and 462 Tables II and III tend to substantiate this point. The data in Table II indicate that NOA due to Vietnam will decline by nearly $1.4 billion in fiscal year 1968 even though ex penditures will continue to rise. Table III presents data on various types of obligations and orders for defense products. The obligations series reached a peak in the second guarter of 1966, and since that lime have declined for two successive quarters; the orders series reached a peak in the third quarter of 1966, and receded in the fourth quarter. TABLE II Estim ated N e w O b lig a tio n a l Authority and Expenditures for Special Support of V ietnam O pe ratio ns Fiscal Y ears 1965-68 (in m illio n s o f d o lla r s ) New O bligational Authority Fiscal Year 1965 ..................... 1966 ..................... $ 700 14,946 Expenditures $ 103 5,812 1967 ..................... 21,969 19,419 1968 ..................... 20,600 21,900 Source: Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget, The Budget of the United States Governm ent— 1968 (W ashington: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1967), p. 77 TABLE III N e w O rders for Defense Products, D epartm ent of Defense O b lig atio n s, an d M ilita ry Prime Contract A w ard s, 1965-66 S e a so n ally Adjusted A n n u a l Rates (in b illio n s o f d o lla r s ) Department of Defense Obligations Quarter 1965 1966 Total Procurement Military Prime Contract Aw ards to U. S. Business Firms New Orders for Defense Products 29.1 1.......................................... . . . . 51.0 12.2 21.3 II ........................... . . . . 55.0 16.4 29.6 33.1 Ill.............................................. . . . . 59.0 18.4 31.7 35.5 IV ............................................. . . . . 62.1 19.3 32.7 33.5 39.3 1........................................... . . . . 64.6 21.1 32.9 ........................... . . . . 75.9 24.6 38.8 39.6 Ill.............................................. . . . . 75.2 23.5 41.1 45.3 IV .............................................. . . . . 72.1 22.4 39.1 37.4 II Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Business Cycle Developments, February 1967 5 TABLE IV Defense Production, Unfilled O rd e rs for Defense Products, an d the Ratios of Unfilled O rders to Shipm ents an d of N e w O rders to Shipm ents, 1965-66 Percent Change in Defense Production e 1965 J a n u a r y ............................ F e b ru a ry ............................ .............. Ratio of Unfilled Orders for Defense Products (millions) Unfilled O rders to Shipments New Orders to Shipments $19,964 9.09 1.08 20,260 9.12 1.10 20,502 8.99 1.08 1 .8 % M a r c h ................................ A p r i l ................................ 21,361 9.46 1.43 21,457 9.41 1.08 ............................... 21,743 9.46 1.12 J u l y ................................... 22,036 9.48 1.13 22,503 9.61 1.20 23,532 9.72 1.42 M a y ................................ June A u g u st................................ .............. .............. 3.5 4.8 S e p t e m b e r ......................... O c t o b e r ............................ N o v e m b e r ......................... .............. 6.3 D e c e m b e r ......................... 1966 J a n u a r y ............................ 24,407 9.16 1.36 24,587 9.31 1.08 24,587 9.71 1.00 25,383 9.64 1.32 25,841 9.03 1.18 M a r c h ................................ 26,578 10.01 1.28 A p r i l ................................ 27,239 10.25 1.24 27,316 9.65 1.03 28,269 10.35 1.35 F e b ru a ry ............................ M a y ................................ June .............. .............. 8.4 5.0 ............................... 28,879 9.98 1.21 29,184 10.24 1.11 S e p t e m b e r ........................ 31,033 11.00 1.66 O c t o b e r ............................ 31,453 10.89 1.15 31,316 10.93 0.95 31 ,691p 10.85 1.13 J u ly ................................... A u g u st................................ N o v e m b e r ........................ .............. .............. 6.0 2.7 D e c e m b e r ......................... e Estimated by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland p P r e lim in a r y Sources: U. S. Department of Commerce and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Table IV presenls measures on the production side of defense — defense output, order backlogs, and ihe ratios of unfilled orders to shipments and of new orders to shipments. It can be seen that the rate of increase in estimated defense production slowed substantially in the fourth quarter of 1966. The slowing down in the rale of growth does not appear to reflect capacity limitations. The ratio of new orders to shipments declined below 1.00 in November, ihe first monih-iomonth decline in the backlog of unfilled orders for defense products during the time period covered by ihe data in the table. While new orders exceeded shipments in December, thereby pushing up the backlog of unfilled orders again, ihe growth of unfilled orders does appear to have slackened. 6 In view of ihe data, several comments seem pertinent. For one thing, a s calendar 1967 progresses, defense spending is likely to in crease less than during 1966. For another, much of the increase in spending will repre sent deliveries of previously ordered hardware and will not reflect an additional siimulus to productive activity. Moreover, new orders and commitments for those military products that require extensive productive capacity are not expected to increase, but will remain level or possibly even show a slight decline; in fact, they have remained virtually level since the second quarter of 1966. Thus, the data suggest that the economy may not receive much additional siimulus from defense spending in calendar 1967— at least a s things stand now. MARCH 1967 1966 PATTERNS IN FOURTH DISTRICT BANKING During 1966, loictl loans and inveslmenis ai weekly reporting banks in ihe Fourth District advanced $388 million or about 2.8 percent.1 Ai least two major developments are signif icant. First, ihe rate of expansion of bank credit was considerably less than that of recent years. Second, during 1966 bank man agement had to cope with heavy demands for funds ai a time when credit was becoming less available. 1 The statistical series on the Condition of Weekly Report ing Member Banks w as revised during 1966, beginning with the report for July 6. Two major revisions involved the addition of banks (including nonmembers of the Fed eral Reserve System) to the reporting series and the inclusion of only those banks with deposits of $100 million or more. To reflect these changes, the series title h as been changed to Weekly Condition Report of Large Commercial Banks. Presently, 31 banks within the Fourth District re port weekly to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. D ata used in this article for the period prior to July 6,1966, have been revised to be com parable to the more recent data. Since the weekly reports of participating banks are compiled a s of W ednesdays only, the 52-week period used in this article does not coincide precisely with the calendar year. The period covered is from December 29, 1965, to December 28, 1966. With reference to ihe second development, member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve System exceeded excess reserves throughout the year, indicating the need to use borrowed funds to meet reserve requiremenis. Banks generally were under pressure to maintain deposit levels, in part because attractive yields on investment securities tended to lure depositors' money. Freguently, banks were forced to liquidate portions of their investment holdings to raise funds to accommodate loan demand. The situation differed somewhat in the Fourth District, since excess reserves generally exceeded borrow ings. It is not clear whether District banks were in a more favorable position than banks in the nation or whether they were more pre pared to take other steps (such as liquidation of investments or curtailment of lending ac tivity) to meet reserve requirements. In any event, Fourth District banks still had to oper ate in a general environment of reduced credit availability. Against this background, ihe present article describes ihe banking situ ation that unfolded in the Fourth District dur ing 1966. 7 E C O N O M IC R E V IEW BANK CREDIT C h a r t 1. BANK CREDIT The swings in total credit at District banks in 1966 are apparent in Chart 1, which shows total bank credit, loans, and investments at weekly reporting banks. The dip in bank credit in the first quarter and the increase in the second quarter were not unlike the pat terns of previous years, but the decline dur ing the late spring and summer months was unusual. In the period from May through the middle of September, bank credit declined by $511 million, or 9.9 percent at an annual rate. On balance, loan demand held up fairly well during that period. Lending, however, was restrained by the difficulty banks had in acquiring and holding new deposits, which reflected the restrictive credit policy of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve credit policy also was reflected in the steady decline in total investments through most of 1966. During the fourth quarter, bank credit in creased at Fourth District weekly reporting banks, but at a slower rate than in recent years. While loans receded in the fourth quarter, total investment holdings rose to the level that existed at midyear. On balance, the volume of total bank credit at District reporting banks at yearend was still slightly below the peak level reached in the spring of 1966. F o u r t h D i s t r i c t — W e e k l y R e p o r t in g B a n k s B i ll io n s of d o l l a r s INVESTMENTS 1966 NOTE: R e d lin e is b a s e d on a v e r a g e e n d - o f - q u a r t e r to e n d - o f - q u a r t e r p a t t e r n d u r in g 1 9 6 1 -6 5 , a n d re p r e s e n t s h o w th e a c tu a l s e r ie s w o u ld h o v e p e rfo rm e d in 1 9 6 6 if it h a d c o n fo rm e d S o u r c e o f d a ta : to 1 9 6 1 -6 5 e x p e rie n c e . Fe d e ra l R e se rve B a n k 8 o f C le v e la n d Total investments receded at District week ly reporting banks in 1966, with the net de cline just under 5 percent for the year as a whole. During the year, the pattern was one of total investments declining by 16 percent MARCH 1967 (annual rale) through Ihe first three quarters, and then regaining some of the loss during the fourth quarter (see Chart 1). During ihe first half of the year, holdings of U. S. Government securities at District re porting banks were reduced substantially, while holdings of other securities increased fractionally (see Chart 2). Although holdings of Governments declined somewhat further in July and August, the pattern of investment in these and other securities was reversed during most of the second half of the year. That is, holdings of U. S. Treasury issues were accumulated (particularly in ihe fourth quar ter) while holdings of other securities were liquidated. As shown in Chari 2, most of ihe fluctuation in total investments during ihe year was centered in holdings of short-ierm U. S. Treasury issues, those due to mature within one year. The changes in holdings of intermediate-term and long-term Treasury issues were relatively small in magnitude and partly off-setting, so that adjustments in these maturity areas had little effect on the behavior of total investments. LOANS Total loans (the major component of bank credit) experienced a relatively consistent pattern of rapid expansion at District report ing banks through ihe first three quarters of 1966. Customarily, the largest amount of loan expansion at District reporting banks a s a whole (in fact, at commercial banks gener ally) takes place during ihe Iasi half of ihe calendar year, when business and consumer borrowing increases seasonally, bui this was noi ihe case in 1966. From ihe end of June io the end of ihe year, loans ai Disirici report ing banks increased by only $67 million, or C h a r t 2. BANK INVESTMENTS F o u r t h D i s t r i c t — W e e k l y R e p o r t in g B a n k s U.S. GOVT. SECURITIES B illio n s o f d o lla rs OTHER SECURITIES B i l l io n s o f d o l l a r s 1966 So u rce o f data: Fe d e ra l R e s e r v e B a n k o f C le v e la n d 9 E C O N O M IC R E V IE W Chart 3. BANK LOANS F o u r t h D i s t r i c t — W e e k l y R e p o r t in g B a n k s B i l l io n s o f d o l l a r s 4 4 ‘ c & l LOANS 4.2 - 1961-65 A v e r a g e REAL ESTATE LOANS 2 .4 - NO N BA N K F IN A N C IA L LOANS SECURITY LOANS 1961-65 ALL OTHER LOANS 2 .6 - 2 .4 - J F M A M J J A S O N D 1966 * S e e F o o tn o te 2 in text NOTE: R e d lin e is b a s e d o n a v e r a g e e n d - o f - q u a r t e r to e n d - o f - q u a r t e r p a t t e r n d u r in g 1 9 6 1 -6 5 , h o w th e a c t u a l s e r ie s w o u ld and re p re se n ts h a v e p e r fo r m e d in 1 9 6 6 if it h a d c o n fo rm e d to 1 9 6 1 -6 5 e x p e rie n c e . S o u rce o f data: F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f C le v e la n d 10 less ihan 1V2 percent at an annual rate (see Chart 1). Developments during the last quar ter deviated sharply from the usual pattern, and total loans actually declined at an an nual rate of 4 percent. As a result, for the year a s a whole the gain in total loans was the smallest annual increase in four years. During the first half of 1966, the commercial and industrial loan component of total loans at District reporting banks rose sharply at an annual rate of 30 percent, in a spillover of the rapid expansion that had occurred in 1965. (See Chari 3.) The District experience reflected an even more accelerated rate of business loan expansion than in the nation, where the rate of advance was 20 percent at an annual rate. In fact, the increase in busi ness lending at commercial banks in general w as so large that the Federal Reserve System found it necessary to issue a letter on Septem ber 1, 1966, that specifically asked banks to curb loans to business and industry and not to sell securities in order to prevent severe pressures from developing in credit and cap ital markets. In the District, the pace of busi ness loan expansion had actually slowed noticeably at midyear, to an annual rate of about 8 percent during the summer. This, in part, reflected credit-restraining actions by the Federal Reserve System, referred to ear lier, as well a s the first indications of slacken ing demand for business loans. R eal e state lo an s increased modestly throughout the first quarter of 1966 in con trast to the sharp climb in total loans. (See Chart 3.) However, from April through Octo ber, real estate loans advanced at an annual rate of approximately 13 percent, which in part reflects patterns established in recent MARCH 1967 years. During much of this period, banks in the Dislrici were more successful in obtaining and holding savings funds than were other types of financial institutions that specialize in granting mortgage loans. Real estate loans were virtually unchanged at District report ing banks during November and December. Loans to nonbank financial institutions (such as finance companies and savings and loan associations), loans to securities dealers for the purpose of carrying securities, and all other loans2 showed little net change over ihe year and thus did not have a notice able net effect on ihe behavior of total loans ai District weekly reporting banks. (See Chart 3.) The fact that loans to nonbank financial institutions by District reporting banks declined during the fourth quarter is perhaps significant because in recent years such loans usually have increased during that quarter. With resources scarce, District banks apparently took advantage of other lending opportunities that were available. Chart 4. BANK DEPOSITS F o u r t h D i s t r i c t — W e e k l y R e p o r t in g B o n k s B illio n s of d o lla rs TOTAL TIM E DEPO SITS BANK LIQUIDITY Familiar measures of bank liquidity reflect the pressures on District reporting banks in 1966, a s they attempted to acquire and hold deposits, while being forced to liquidate por tions of investment holdings in ihe face of heavy loan demands. The loan-to-deposit NEGOTIABLE CDs 2 For the purpose of this article, all other loans include the following categories from the weekly report of condi tion: agricultural loans, consumer instalment loans, and other loans. In June 1966, a sharp decline in all other loans resulted from a decision by the Federal Reserve System to disregard certain time deposits ("hypothecated deposits") set up by banks in some states to reflect rep ay ments on consumer loans. The decision resulted in corre sponding declines in total time deposits and all other loans. 1966 * S e e Fo o tn o te 2 in text NOTE: R e d lin e is b a s e d o n a v e r a g e e n d - o f - q u a r t e r to e n d -o f-q u a rte r p a tte rn d u r i n g 1 9 6 1 -6 5 , a n d r e p r e s e n t s h o w th e a c t u a l s e rie s w o u ld h a v e p e r f o r m e d in 1 9 6 6 if it h a d c o n fo r m e d to 1 9 6 1 -6 5 S o u rc e of data: e x p e rie n c e . F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f C le v e la n d 11 E C O N O M IC R E V IEW ratio for Fourth District weekly reporting banks at the beginning of 1966 was at 59.6 percent; by August, the ratio reached a recent record level of 65.4 percent; it then receded and closed the year at 62.0 percent. The ratio of risk a sse ts3 to total assets moved some what more narrowly, increasing from 76.3 percent at the beginning of the year to a peak level of 79.6 percent in both June and October with the higher level being main tained during the summer and fall. By year end, however, the ratio had declined to 77.0 percent. It should be pointed out that both the loan-deposit and the risk-asset ratio have been in a gradual secular uptrend over the past four years, and at yearend 1966 both were almost 10 percentage points higher than in 1962 for Fourth District weekly report ing banks. BANK DEPOSITS As mentioned earlier, District reporting banks — a s well a s those across the nation — experienced a great deal of difficulty in main taining deposit levels in 1966. In fact, if it were not for seasonal increases in deposits at District banks during the last two weeks of December, total deposits probably would have finished the year at a lower level than at the beginning of the year. Customarily, total deposits at District re porting banks decline in the first quarter of the year. The usual deposit pattern was fol lowed in the first three months of 1966, but the decline was greater than in recent years. In addition, the second quarter brought a smaller increase than usual in total deposits, 3 Risk a sse ts equal total a sse ls less cash and U. S. Gov ernment securities. 12 as time deposits lost some of their attractive ness in view of rising interest rates on money market instruments. The third quarter added to the problems of District banks, with total deposits declining sharply in July and Au gust. Usually, tolal deposits show a strong increase in the third quarter, but the sevenweek period from July 6 to August 24, 1966, saw a sharp decline at an annual rate of about 40 percent (a rate of decline smaller than that experienced by all weekly report ing banks in the nation, however). Total de posits declined again, during the fourth quar ter, until the recovery just before yearend. Demand deposits at Fourth District report ing banks moved lower during the first two quarters of 1966 in seasonal fashion, with most of the decline occurring in the first quarter (see Chart 4). Gains in the second half were not enough to recover the earlier loss, a s in other recent years. As a result, demand deposits closed fractionally lower in 1966 than at yearend 1965. As the chart shows, the largest changes in demand de posits occurred in months in which business and personal income tax liabilities were sub stantial: April, June, September, October and December. Weekly reporting banks in the Fourth Dis trict were able to increase time deposits throughout most of the first half of 1966, as funds continued to flow into other time de posits, and passbook savings deposits re mained relatively steady. After midyear, however, passbook savings a s well as nego tiable CDs began to run off, causing total time deposits to show a gain of only 3V2 percent for 1966 a s a whole. This contrasts sharply to the 10 to 25 percent gains in total MARCH 1967 time deposits in the preceding five years. This was the case despite the fact that re porting banks raised interest rates offered on the various time deposits to or near the maximum levels permitted. In view of mone tary restraint during much of 1966, as well as large advances in yields on money market instruments, the behavior of time deposits at District reporting banks is not surprising. The total dollar volume of negotiable CDs in denominations of $100,000 or more issued by Fourth District weekly reporting banks turned downward during the first week in July, as illustrated in Chart 4. There was a temporary halt in the outflow of funds held in the form of large CDs during September, but subsequently the reporting banks again began to lose deposits and at an accelerated pace. During November, with interest rate relationships changing, banks in the Fourth District were able to halt the decline in large CDs; by yearend, banks had regained a por tion of the lost CD volume. CONCLUDING COMMENTS Generally, 1966 provided many challenges for Fourth District weekly reporting banks. as well as for other banks in the nation. Commercial banks continued to refute their popular reputation a s institutions that resist change by adapting, often quickly, to rapidly changing monetary and financial conditions. During most of the year, loan demand at District reporting banks remained strong, but total resources (deposits) did not expand enough for banks to accommodate loan de mand. To have allowed banks to do so would have been inappropriate monetary policy in view of the economic situation then pre vailing. Banks were forced to sell some in vestments, frequently at losses, to raise funds to accommodate loan requests of valued customers. While this was clearly the situa tion during the first half, it was less so during the rest of the year and not the case at all as the year came to a close, reflecting the shift in monetary policy toward less restraint. The increase in the volume of time deposits at District reporting banks in 1966 was well below that of other recent years, even though interest rates paid by reporting banks moved to or approached the legal maximum. But this was not an atypical experience, a s it oc curred widely at banks throughout the nation. 13 E C O N O M IC R E V IEW GROWTH OF DEPOSIT-TYPE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN THE FOURTH DISTRICT, 1947-65 Total assets of deposit-type financial insti tutions1 located within the Fourth Federal Reserve District exceeded $41 billion at the end of 1965. At this level, total assets were 185 percent greater than at the end of 1947, when they amounted to $14.5 billion. This increase in total assets during ihe 1947-65 period was not distributed evenly among the NOTE: The cooperation of the Federal Home Loan Banks of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the Credit Union L eagu es of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, and the banking and building and loan departments in the Fourth District states in providing historical d ata is grate fully acknowledged. 1 A deposit-type financial institution derives its primary resources from deposits by the public. The most familiar types of deposit-type financial institutions are commercial banks, savin gs and loan associations, mutual savin gs banks, and credit unions. Although there are a number of sale s and consumer finance companies in the Fourth Dis trict that accept deposits, they are excluded from this study since statistics are not av ailab le on either their number or activities. 14 various subareas within the District (the en tire State of Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and six counties in West Virginia). Total assets of deposit-type finan cial institutions in Ohio more than tripled during the period under review, while assets of institutions in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia expanded about two-and-onehalf times (see Table I). The vast growth in total assets of deposittype financial institutions in the Fourth Dis trict was accompanied by large-scale expan sion of physical facilities. Not only were a large number of new financial institutions formed, but there was an even more rapid increase in the number of branches, particu larly of commercial banks and savings and loan associations in Ohio and Pennsylvania. At the end of 1965, there were 5,481 offices of deposit-type financial institutions in the Fourth District, a 69 percent increase from TABLE I A sse ts an d Facilities Deposit-Type Financial Institutions Fourth Federal Reserve District December 31, 1947 and December 31, 1965 State or Portion in Fourth District ASSETS Decem ber 31, 19 4 7 (millions o f dollars) Total Offices Branches O h i o ....................................... $ 9,367 2,064 1,863 201 P e n n sylvan ia............................ 4,328 870 818 52 K e n t u c k y ................................ 667 268 262 6 W e st V i r g i n i a ......................... 170 41 41 -0 — T O T A L ................................... $14,532 3,243 2,984 259 FACILITIES ^ain Decem ber 31, 1965 O h i o ....................................... $28,214 3,651 2,386 1,265 P e n n sylvan ia ............................ 11,001 1,405 875 530 K e n t u c k y ................................ 1,727 362 280 82 W e st V i r g i n i a ......................... 412 63 63 -0 - T O T A L ................................... $41,354 5,481 3,604 1,877 O h i o ....................................... +201% +77% +28% Pe n n sylvan ia ............................ +154 +61 + 7 Percent Change, 1 9 47-6 5 Kentucky ................................ +159 +35 + +142 +54 +54 T O T A L ................................... +185% +69% +21% Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati; Federal 529% + 9 1 9 W e st V i r g i n i a ......................... Sources: + 7 + 1 ,2 6 7 -0 + 625% Home Loan Bank of Pittsburgh; Division of Building and Loan Associations, The State of Ohio; Department of Banking and Securities, The Comm onwealth of Kentucky; Department of Banking, The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania; Departm ent of Banking, The State of W est V irgin ia; Pennsylvania Credit Union League; O hio Credit Union League; Kentucky Credit Union League; W est V irgin ia Credit Union League; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland E C O N O M IC R E V IEW TABLE II Assets and Facilities Com m ercial Banks Fourth Federal Reserve District December 31, 1947 and December 31, 1965 TOTAL ASSETS tate or Portion i Fourth District (millions of dollars) 1 2 -3 1 -4 7 1 2 -3 1 -6 5 TOTAL M A IN OFFICES Percent Change M ain M ain Offices Offices 1 2 -3 1 -4 7 1 2 -3 1 -6 5 TOTAL BR A N CH ES Percent Change Branches 1 2 -3 1 -4 7 186 945 + 408% +74% 52 455 + 775 +72 $ 7,416 $17,506 + 136% 668 542 — 19% 3,977 8,275 + 108 286 128 — 55 Kentucky 588 1,286 + 119 167 149 — 11 W est Virginia 152 269 26 24 $12,133 $27,336 1,147 843 Ohio Pennsylvania TOTAL + 77 + 125% TOTAL B A N K IN G OFFICES — 8 — 27% Branches 1 2 -3 1 -6 5 6 74 -0 - -0 - 244 1,474 Percent Change + 1,133 -0 + 504% Percent Change + 29 — 8 +67% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland the number in operation in 1947. The growth in facilities was concentrated in the estab lishment of branch offices, with the number of branches increasing 625 percent. Alterna tively stated, the expansion of branch offices accounted for 72 percent of the total increase in the number of deposit-type facilities in the District. Like the expansion in total assets, expansion in number of total facilities was not uniformly distributed among the subareas of the District. Moreover, rates of growth of the individual types of financial institutions, in terms of both assets and facili ties, varied from area to area within the District. percent during the period 1947-65, or from $12.1 billion to $27.3 billion. That increase ($15.2 billion) represented more than half (57 percent) of the gain in total assets of all deposit-type financial institutions in the Fourth District during 1947-65. The number of commercial banking offices rose by 67 per cent, all of which resulted from the establish ment of branches, as the number of commer cial banks fell by 27 percent (see Table II).2 Despite posting the largest absolute in creases in total assets and total facilities, the share of total assets of all deposit-type finan cial institutions accounted for by District commercial banks fell during the 1947-65 GROWTH OF DEPOSIT-TYPE FINANCIAL 2 For a discussion of the changes in ihe structure of com INSTITUTIONS - BY TYPE AN D AREA mercial banking in the Fourth Federal Reserve District, Total assets of Fourth District commercial banks expanded 125 see "The Anatomy of Fourth District Banking, 1954-65," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio, May 1966. Com m ercial Banks. 16 MARCH 1967 period. Whereas commercial banks held 83 percent of total assets and operated 43 per cent of total facilities in 1947, the proportions fell to 66 percent and 42 percent, respectively, by the end of 1965. The rates of growth of commercial banks in the subareas of the Fourth District varied during the 1947-65 period. Commercial banks in Ohio led the way with an increase in total assets of 136 percent. Total assets of banks in the District's portions of Kentucky and Pennsylvania increased by 119 percent and 108 percent, respectively, while those of banks in the six-county portion of West Vir ginia grew by 77 percent. In the case of facili ties, the number of banking offices in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky increased in a range of from 29 to 74 percent; in West Vir ginia, the only unit banking state in the Fourth District, the number of banking offices fell by 8 percent. Although the number of total banking offices increased in three of the four District areas, the number of com mercial banks fell in all four; the largest decline was experienced in Pennsylvania, where the number of commercial banks de clined by 55 percent. The number of branches of commercial banks in the District rose in all states, except for West Virginia, with the largest increase (1,133 percent) taking place in Kentucky (see Table II). S a v in g s an d Loan A sso ciation s an d M u tu al S a v in g s Banks. The combined total assets of savings and loan associations and mutual savings banks operating in the Fourth District spurted from $2.3 billion in 1947 to over $13.2 billion at the end of 1965, a 464 percent in crease.3 All of the growth was centered in the expansion of the savings and loan asso ciations. There were three mutual savings banks in the Fourth District in 1947 with com bined assets of $317 million; at the end of 1965, there were two mutual savings banks with combined assets of $309 million.4 In 1947, the savings and loan associations of the Fourth District held only 16 percent of the total assets of all deposit-type financial institutions in the District; at the end of 1965, the percentage share amounted to 32 percent. In contrast to commercial banks, the savings and loan associations expanded primarily through internal expansion (not through merger or consolidation), although there were a few consolidations of small, uninsured a s sociations, especially in Ohio, and to a lesser degree, in Pennsylvania. The number of main offices declined 10 percent during the 1947-65 period; the number of branch offices sky rocketed, however, increasing by 2,587 per cent (see Table III). The net result w as that total offices of savings and loan associations rose approximately 31 percent during the period under review. During 1947-65, the savings and loan associations gained a siz able share of total assets of financial institu tions within the Fourth District, even though they experienced a loss in the percent 3 Mutual savin gs banks are relatively unimportant in the Fourth District, and have been combined with the savin gs and loan associations, the deposit-type institution the former most closely resem bles in terms of structure and operation. 4 The largest mutual savin gs bank in 1947 w as converted to a national bank in 1958. 17 E C O N O M IC R E V IEW TABLE III A ssets a n d Facilities S a v in g s an d Loan A sso ciation s a n d M u tu a l S a v in g s Ban ks Fourth Federal Reserve District December 31, 1947 and December 31, 1965 TOTAL ASSETS State or Portion in Fourth District Ohio (millions o f dollars) 1 2 -3 1 -4 7 1 2 -3 1 -6 5 Percent Change TOTAL BRAN CHES Main Offices 1 2 -3 1 -6 5 Percent Change Branches! 1 2 -3 1 -4 7 Branches 1 2 -3 1 -6 5 Percent Change + 2 ,0 3 3 % $1,916* $10,15 0 f +430% 624 557 — 11% 15 320 33 9 * 2,544f +650 215 186 — 13 —0 — 75 -0 - 77 423 +449 71 67 — 6 -0 - 8 -0 - 17 136 +700 12 17 +42 —0 — -0 - -0 - $2,349 $13,253 922 827 15 403 + 2 ,5 8 7 % Pennsylvania Kentucky W est Virginia TOTAL TOTAL M A IN OFFICES M ain Offices 1 2 -3 1 - 4 7 +464% — 10% * Includes two mutual savings banks in O h io with assets of $227 million and one in Pennsylvania with assets of $90 million. + Includes one mutual savings bank in O h io with assets of $3 million and one in Pennsylvania with assets of $306 million. Estimated. Sources: Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati; Federal Home Loan Bank of Pittsburgh; Division of Building and Loan A ssocia tions, The State of Ohio; Department of Banking and Securities, The Commonwealth of Kentucky; Department of Bank ing, The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania; Department of Banking, The State of W est V irgin ia share of facilities. In 1947, offices of savings and loan associations accounted for 29 per cent of the facilities of all deposit-type finan cial institutions; in 1965, the share had de clined to 22 percent even though the absolute number of savings and loan facilities had grown appreciably. Within the District, savings and loan asso ciations in Ohio showed the greatest amount of expansion. There are more uninsured sav ings and loan associations in Ohio than in any other state; the percent of total assets held by the uninsured associations was 30 percent in 1947, and amounted to about 10 percent at the end of 1965. In 1947, savings and loan associations in Ohio held assets amounting to $1.9 billion; 18 by 1965, assets had grown to nearly $10.2 billion, a more than fivefold increase, which accounted for 76 percent of the growth of all savings and loan associations in the District during 1947-65. At the sam e time, Ohio expe rienced the largest absolute decline in the number of associations and the sharpest increase in the number of branches. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania also experienced a sharp increase in the total assets held by savings and loan associations, with a percent increase of 650 percent surpassing that in Ohio. While the number of savings and loan associations in Pennsyl vania also declined, the number of branches increased markedly. Both Kentucky and West Virginia experienced slight gains in MARCH 1967 TABLE IV A ssets a n d Facilities Credit Unions Fourth Federal Reserve District December 31, 1947 and December 31, 1965 TOTAL ASSETS (millions of dollars) State or Portion in Fourth District 1 2 -3 1 -4 7 1 2 -3 1 -6 5 TOTAL M A IN OFFICES M ain Offices 1 2 -3 1 -4 7 M ain Offices 1 2 -3 1 -6 5 + 1 ,4 9 4 % 571 1,287 + 1,417 317 561 24 64 + 167 3 22 + 633 915 1,934 Percent Change O h i o ............................ .............. $35 $558 Pennsylvania.................. .............. 12 182 K e n t u c k y ..................... .............. 2 18 + 800 W e st V i r g i n i a .............. ........ 1 7 + 600 T O T A L ......................... .............. $50 $765 + 1 ,4 3 0 % Percent Change + 125% + 77 + 111% Sources: Kentucky Credit Union League; O h io Credit Union League; Pennsylvania Credit Union League; W est V irgin ia Credit Union League the amount of assets held by savings and loan associations as well as in ihe number of facilities. Interestingly, West Virginia was the only Fourth District state in which the number of savings and loan associations increased during 1947-65, reflecting in part the state law prohibiting expansion through branching. Credit Unions. Total assets of credit unions in the Fourth District rose from $50 million in 1947 to $765 million at the end of 1965 (see Table IV). That increase (1,430 percent) was the largest relative gain of any deposittype financial institution in ihe District, al though ihe absolute volume of toial assets held by credit unions represents less than 2 percent of the toial assets held by Fourth District financial institutions. The credit union share of toial assets w as even smaller in 1947 — less than one-third of one percent. The number of facilities operated by credit unions in the Fourth District more than doubled during the period under review, re flecting increasing acceptance by employers and employees of ihe credit union a s both a depository and source of credit. Credit union offices accounted for 35 percent of toial facili ties operated by financial institutions in the Fourth District in 1965, in comparison with 28 percent in 1947. As Table IV shows, increases in assets of credit unions in ihe individual areas of ihe District ranged from 600 percent in West Virginia to nearly 1,500 percent in Ohio. The 19 E C O N O M IC R E V IEW larger magnitude of credit union operations in Ohio meant that asset growth in that State represented more than 70 percent of ihe total asset growth of all credit unions in the District during 1947-65. More new credit unions (716) were established in Ohio during 1947-65 than in ihe rest of ihe Disirict, alihough all areas did experience an increase in the number of facilities available. MAJOR ASSETS A N D LIABILITIES Assets and liabilities of deposii-type finan cial institutions in the Fourth District, a s else where in the nation, underwent fundamental shifts during 1947-65. Tables V-VIII summarize these changes. The major change ihat per vaded all balance sheets was ihe marked increase in ihe proportion of loans to total assets. This was especially true in ihe case of commercial banks in ihe Fourth District (see Table V). In 1947, more than 52 percent of the assets of banks in ihe Disirict were in investments; by the end of 1965, ihe propor tion had fallen to 32 percent. Correspon dingly, loans climbed from 24 percent of total assets in 1947 io 52 percent in 1965. On the liability side of ihe balance sheet, ihe 18-year period witnessed a sizable shift in ihe dis tribution of deposits between time and de mand. In 1947, demand deposits accounted for iwo-ihirds of all deposits; by ihe end of 1965, demand deposits accounted for nearly half of total deposits. Commercial banks also appreciably increased capital accounts dur ing the 18-year period. Tables VI and VII show ihe balance sheei items for savings and loan associations and mutual savings banks in ihe Fourth District, 20 TABLE V Balance Sheet Items Com m ercial Banks Fourth Federal Reserve District December 31, 1947 and December 31, 1965 ASSETS Loans Investments Other Assets TOTAL December 3 1 ,1 9 4 7 December 3 1 ,1 9 6 5 Percent of Total Millions Percent of Dollars of Total Millions o f Dollars $ 2,887 6,348 2,898 $12,133 2 3 .8 % 52.3 23.9 1 0 0 .0 % $14,216 8,763 4,357 $27,336 5 2 .0 % 32.1 15.9 1 0 0 .0 % LIABILITIES Deposits: Demand Time 9 2 .0 % 66.3 * $12,122 4 9 .8 * 3,765 3 3 .7 * 12,216 5 0.2* Other Liabilities and Capital Accounts TOTAL 8 9 .0 % $ 7,401 967 $12,133 8.0 1 0 0 .0 % 2,998 $27,336 11.0 1 0 0 .0 % * Percent of total deposits. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the increased proportion of loans in the portfolios of these institutions. On ihe other hand, there was little change in ihe relation ship of total deposits to total liabilities over the 18-year period. Interestingly, ihe growth experienced by the various types of savings and loan associations was not uniform, a s illustrated by ihe data in Table VII. The total assets of all savings and loan associa tions in ihe District increased by 537 percent during 1947-65. However, most of ihai gain was recorded by ihe insured associations, MARCH 1967 TABLE VI Balance Sheet Items Sa v in g s and Loan Associations and M utu al Sa vin gs Banks December 31, 1947 and December 31, 1965 (millions of dollars) December 31, 1965 December 31, 1947 Savings and Loan Associations Mutual Savings Banks Total Loans $1,467 $ 50 $1,517 Other 565 267 832 $2,032 $3 17 $2,349 $1,735 $292 $2,027 297 25 322 $2,032 $3 17 $2,349 ASSETS TOTAL ASSETS Percent of Total Savings and Loan Mutual Associations Savings Banks Total Percent o f Total 8 4 .4 % $10,959 $222 $1 1,181 1,985 87 2,072 10 0 .0 % $12,944 $ 3 09 $13,253 1 0 0 .0 % 8 6 .3 % $11,233 $285 $11,518 8 6 .9 % 1,711 24 1,735 $12,944 $3 09 $13,253 6 4 .6 % 35.4 15.6 LIABILITIES Savings Accounts Other TOTAL LIABILITIES 13.7 1 0 0 .0 % 13.1 1 0 0 .0 % Sources: Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati; Federal Home Loan Bank of Pittsburgh; Division of Building and Loan A ssocia tions, The State of Ohio; Department of Banking and Securities, The Commonwealth of Kentucky; Department of Bank ing, The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania; Department of Banking, The State of W est V irgin ia TABLE V II Grow th in Sa v in g s and Loan Associations Fourth Federal Reserve District December 31, 1947 and December 31, 1965 TOTAL A SSETS TOTAL L O A N S (millions of dollars)____________________________ (millions of dollars) Percent 1 2 -3 1 -4 7 1 2 -3 1 - 6 5 1 2 -3 1 -4 7 1 2 -3 1 -6 5 Change F e d e r a l............................ State Insured ................. $ 5,905 . . . . 688 5,657 State U n i n s u r e d .............. 1,382 T O T A L ............................ $12,944 +694% +722 + 130 + 537% $ 547 $ 4,963 462 4,766 458 1,230 $1,467 $10,959 Percent Change +807% +932 + 169 + 647% Sources: Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati; Federal Home Loan Bank of Pittsburgh; Division of Building and Loan A ssocia tions, The State of Ohio; Department of Banking and Securities, The Commonwealth of Kentucky; Department of Bank ing, The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania; Department of Banking, The State of W est V irgin ia 21 E C O N O M IC R E V IEW TABLE V III Balance Sheet Items Credit Unions Fourth Federal Reserve District December 31, 1947 and December 31, 1965 ASSETS Loans Other Assets December 31, 1947 December 3 1 ,1 9 6 5 Millions o f Dollars Percent of Total Percent Millions of Dollars of Total $23 4 6 .0 % 27 TOTAL $537 54.0 228 7 0 .2 % 29.8 $50 1 0 0 .0 % $765 1 0 0 .0 % $46 9 2 .0 % $675 8 8 .2 % LIABILITIES Shares Other Liabilities 4 TOTAL $50 8.0 10 0 .0 % 90 $765 11.8 1 0 0 .0 % Sources: Kentucky Credit Union League; O h io Credit Union League; Pennsylvania Credit Union League; W est V irgin ia Credit Union League either federal or sfafe-chartered, which ex panded 694 percent and 722 percent, respec tively. Uninsured savings and loan associa tions, which are especially numerous in Ohio, did not experience the same rapid increase in total assets, due primarily to the relatively 22 small increase in the number of associations. Furthermore, many former uninsured asso ciations switched to coverage by the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation, which further reduced the growth potential of uninsured associations. The pattern of behavior in the growth of loans at the various types of savings and loan associations varied according to whether the associations were insured or uninsured. Comparative credit union statistics for 1947 and 1965 show clearly the major shift in the asset mix of the credit unions, especially into instalment loans. At the end of World War II, like the case of commercial banks and savings and loan associations, many credit unions held funds idle or had invested them in U. S. Government securities. In fact, at the end of 1947, more than 50 percent of the total assets of the credit unions were in other than loan categories (see Table VIII). By the end of 1965, loans accounted for 70 percent of total assets. On the other side of the balance sheet, the percentage of liabilities repre sented by deposits was appreciably reduced, due primarily to increases in equity as credit unions multiplied in size. Fourth Federal Reserve District