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MONTHLY
StMitteM ei/ieuj
IN
THIS
ISSUE
F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK of C L E V E L A N D
Trend to Part-Time Farming..........
...
3
Measuring Easter-Season T ra d e .. . .
...
6
“TftctooHt956
FARM OPERATORS IN FOORTH DISTRICT
While the number of farmers in the Fourth
Thousands
District, as elsewhere, has declined over
FULL-TIME
the years, there has been almost no de
300
cline in the number of PART-TIM E OPER
ATORS, i.e., those with employment off
200
the farm amounting to 100 days or more
per year. Part-time farmers thus repre
sent a significantly enlarged proportion
100
of the total farmers in the District.
1945
1950
1954
PART-TIME AS PERCENT OF TOTAL
Percent
30
20
I0
1945
1950
1954
Trend To Part-Time Farming
out of three farm operators
in the Fourth Federal Reserve District
operates on a part-time basis. Evidence of this
is found in the 1954 Census of Agriculture
which enumerated nearly 313,400 operators in
the District, of whom approximately 35 per
cent reported off-farm employment of 100 days
or more per year. Obviously an operator who
is working virtually a third or more of the
normal work days each year off the farm must
adjust the farm enterprise to a part-time
basis.(1)
Part-time operators, so defined, rose from
28 percent of total farm operators in the Dis
trict in 1944 to 35 percent in 1954. This gain
occurred concurrently with a 25 percent drop
in the total number of operators.
At least two questions immediately arise.
First, why have a greater proportion of the
operators come to be engaged in off-farm em
ployment ? Second, to what may the sharp de
cline in total number of farm operators be
attributed? The answer to both questions seems
to stem from the fact that modem labor-saving
equipment and methods used on the farm have
enabled an operator to plan and execute the
work on a larger unit than was formerly possi
ble. Thus, in many instances, if the operator
is to be fully employed he has the alternative
of enlarging the existing farm enterprise
(either through acquiring additional land or
intensifying operations on the existing tract)
or if this is impractical, continuing to operate
M
ore t h a n one
( i ) Although there are more refined definitions of “ part-time”
farming, for the purpose of this discussion an operator is con
sidered to be a part-time farmer if he reports 100 days or more
of off-farm employment in any one year.
the existing tract in conjunction with some
form of off-farm employment.
The availability of suitable off-farm employ
ment is an important factor in determining
the decision reached under circumstances just
outlined. The rapid expansion of urban and
industrial development in the Fourth District
since the mid-forties has unquestionably had a
significant influence on the number of farm
operators who have engaged in employment off
the farm, while continuing to operate their
farm on a part-time basis. Moreover, the down
ward trend of farm income since 1951 has
forced some to engage in off-farm employment
as a means of supplementing income from the
farm.
Areas Affected
The percentage engaging in off-farm em
ployment, as will be noted from the accom
panying map, tends to be highest in those
counties of the District where manufacturing,
mining, forest-product industries, or a combi
nation thereof, tend to dominate the economy
of the area. Manufacturing industries, for
example, provide much of the off-farm employ
ment in such industrial areas as Cleveland,
Pittsburgh and Wheeling. Elsewhere in Penn
sylvania and West Virginia, and in eastern
Kentucky, mining and forest-product indus
tries rank high as sources of off-farm employ
ment.
The lowest incidence of off-farm employ
ment appears to be in the Central Bluegrass
of Kentucky— an area where agriculture pre
3
PERCENT OF OPERATORS
REPORTING OFF-FARM EMPLOYMENT
OF 100 DAYS OR MORE
FOURTH DISTRICT,1954
5 I% a Over ^
3 4 % - 5 1% £ □
17 % - 3 4 % [” j
0 -1 7 %
dominates. Most of the counties where the
proportion of part-time operators is below the
average for the District are concentrated in
two belts, one of which is adjacent to the Cen
tral Blnegrass and the other of which lies in
the northwest sector of Ohio. The dominance
of agriculture in the economy of those coun
ties, as well as in a few counties outside of such
areas, presumably accounts for the relatively
smaller proportion of the operators who en
gage in employment off the farm.
Even in those areas where agriculture pre
dominates, it is not uncommon to find farms
being operated on a part-time basis in con
junction with some other form of employment.
Many prospective farmers have found that this
4
f ]
practice affords important supplementary in
come until such time as the farm enterprise
can be built up to full capacity. Such supple
mentary employment is a decided asset, in
many instances, as it permits the beginning
farmer to accumulate the relatively large
amount of required capital more rapidly than
he could derive it from the farm enterprise
alone, before the latter has been developed to
full capacity. Similarly, in the more heavily
industrialized areas, urban workers who have
a desire to farm are following the same pro
cedure as a means of establishing a farm enter
prise.
In addition to those who are operating a
farm on a part-time basis with the objective
of expanding into a full-time venture are many
who have no such thought in mind. For them,
conducting a part-time farm enterprise may
represent a desire for employment supple
mentary to their regular occupation, which
may be seasonal in nature. Many construction
workers and others whose occupations tend to
be highly seasonal engage in the operation of
a farm on a part-time basis. For others, it
affords an opportunity for productive employ
ment of family labor. For still others, the
attractiveness of outdoor work is the main
factor. In the special case of agricultural edu
cators, technicians, etc., part-time farming
provides firsthand experience which is useful
to them in their regular professions.
Family traditions and personal preferences
may tend to retard the growth in part-time
farming in certain areas, but, generally speak
ing, whenever the farm fails to provide an
adequate return, the operator is apt to be
attracted to some form of off-farm employ
ment on a part-time, if not on a full-time basis.
Most Recent Period
The complete transfer from farm to non
farm employment under circumstances of in
adequate income was apparently one of the
principal factors in the 25 percent decline in
total number of farm operators in the ten years
ended in 1954. The decline in total number of
farm operators in the most recent Census
period, 1950-1954, was 11 percent. (See table.)
The sharpest drop occurred among the non
commercial farm group — a group which in
cludes residential, public and private institu
tional farms and farms classified as part-time
according to Census definition/21
The commercial farm group registered the
smallest decline in number of operators be
tween 1950 and 1954. Within the latter group,
however, there is reason to believe that a much
(2 ) Farms with less than $250 value of products sold are
classified as “ residential.”
Part-time farms, according to Census classification, include
those with value of products sold amounting to $250-$l,199
and operator either reporting 100 days or more of off-farm
work or reporting other income exceeding value of agricultural
products sold. (The foregoing concept apparently excludes a
substantial number of commercial-sized farms where the oper
ator works 100 days or more off the farm.)
NUMBER OF FARM OPERATORS
Fourth District
Noncommercial farms
Commercial farms
Total farms
Working off-farm 100
days or more
1954
Percent change
from 1950
118,587
194,734
313,380
-1 8 %
- 7%
-1 1 %
109,740
-
2%
sharper decline occurred among the operators
of commercial farms having a value of product
sold of less than $2,500 than occurred among
those having a value of product sold in excess
of that amount. For example, if the Ohio com
mercial farms are subdivided into two groups,
namely, those having a value of products sold
of $2,500 or more, and those with a value of
products sold of less than $2,500, the decline
in number of operators in the recent five-year
period was less than one percent for the first
group, as compared with a 23 percent decline
for the second group.
It is worthy of note that despite an 11 per
cent decline in the total number of farm opera
tors in the District in the recent period, the
number reporting other employment of 100
days or more declined only 2 percent. In one
state, namely, Ohio, the actual number of farm
operators so employed in 1954 exceeded the
number in 1950 by 5 percent. Moreover, the
number reporting off-farm employment of 100
days or more in 1954 was over 12,000 more
than the total number of noncommercial farms
reported. This suggests that a substantial num
ber of commercial farm operators were engag
ing in some form of off-farm employment.
Outlook
The marked growth in the proportion of
farm operators who engage in other employ
ment while still continuing to operate their
farms raises a question as to the probable
future trend of the practice. At least two fac
tors have exerted a strong influence during
(<Continued on Page 10)
5
Measuring Easter-Season Trade
a p p r o a c h o p E a s t e r is ordinarily felt
year comparisons of department store trade
by department stores well in advance of
will not portray the performance of compara
the actual date. In the past, the traditionalble weeks. For example, the year-to-year report
shopping habits and sales promotions associ
for the week following Easter this year will
ated with the season have resulted in a typical
be highly distorted insofar as comparison is
made with the peak sales week of the year-ago
rise of sales during the four weeks before the
season.
Easter date, followed by a short reaction im
mediately after Easter. This typical pattern of
As a help in gauging the 1956 Easter shop
sales has been quite similar in different years,
ping season, the accompanying table of allow
appearing as more or less superimposed on the
ances, to be applied to the regularly announced
slowly rising level of spring sales. However,
“ percentage change” series, may be useful.
due to the fluctuating date of Easter, any year(See Table 1.) Such allowances have been de
to-year comparisons of particular weeks re
rived from a close study of the behavior of
quires allowances to compensate for the differ
sales by Fourth District department stores
ence in Easter dates between one year and the
next.
Table 1
he
T
A review of the Easter seasons from 1947 to
1955 shows that department store sales gener
ally began a pronounced rise in the fourth
week before Easter, advancing approximately
17 percent to a peak in the week immediately
preceding Easter Sunday. (Fourth Federal
Keserve District. See accompanying chart.)
In the week following, sales dropped off by
16 percent or 17 percent, but by the second
post-Easter week, they again showed a gain
of usually 8 percent to 10 percent. By the third
week, sales no longer seemed influenced by
Easter but were subject once more to the usual
spring influences.
Gauging the 1956 Easter Season
Since Easter in 1956 will fall one week
earlier than it did in 1955, the usual year-to-
6
WEEKLY ALLOWANCES FOR CHANGING
DATE OF EASTER
Department Store Sales, Fourth District
1956
Week Ending
March 10
17
24
31
April
7
14
Percent
+
6
+ 5
+ 5
-0-
-1 9
+ 5
To allow for the change in Easter dates, the
weekly allowances should be subtracted alge
braically from the percentage change figures
shown on the weekly sales reports, H-8, for the
Fourth District.
during the Easter seasons of the past fifteen
years, with special weight given to the period
since World War II. They were computed as
part of the construction of weekly adjustment
“ factors” throughout the yeatr, leading to the
establishment of the seasonally adjusted
weekly index of Fourth District department
store sales, the current standing of which is
published each week by this bank.(1)
SALES DURING EASTER SEASON
Fourth District Department Stores
Weekly Average fo r Year - /OO
The procedure for using the method consists
of subtracting algebraically the weekly allow
ances as listed in Table 1 from the year-to-year
percentage comparisons as they are published.
For example, if for the week ended March 10
the year-to-year percentage change should be
a gain of 14 percent, the year-to-year change,
corrected for Easter date, may be found by
subtracting the weekly allowance figure, +6,
algebraically from the published percent
change, assumed as +14. Thus, the resulting
percent change in sales from a year ago
would be + 8 percent, after allowance for the
changed date of Easter.
Because of the usual pattern of Easter sales,
a large minus figure is likely to be announced
for the week ended April 7 of this year, the
week immediately following Easter Sunday.
As an example in this case, if the published
figure for the week should be minus 15 percent,
by applying the weekly allowance figure, —19,
the corrected change for the week would be a
gain of 4 percent from the year-ago week.
It may be surprising to note that Table 1
indicates that no allowance for the changed
date of Easter need be made in connection with
the year-to-year comparison for the week of
March 31, which is the week before Easter
this year and the expected peak of the season.
The reason is as follows. The record shows that
total Easter trade, as well as the sales figure
for the peak week of the season, is slightly
lower in years when Easter comes early than
(1) It follows that the reader who wishes to make proper
allowance for the Easter date can accomplish this directly, in
the case of Fourth District sales, by following the course of
the seasonally adjusted weekly sales index. Such a procedure
provides a short cut alternative to the “ adjustment” or correc
tion of the announced year-to-year changes.
A detailed description of the method of computing the Fourth
District seasonally adjusted weekly index is available on re
quest to the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of
Cleveland.
7
FOURTH DISTRICT DEPARTMENT STORE SALES
200
The unad{usted index of
w eekly d e partm en t store
sa le s sh o w s the high
C h ristm a s peak a s w ell
as the reduced level of
sale s in the e a rly months
of the year. The E aste r
sho pp in g season m arks
an increase in the d o lla r
v o lu m e o f s a l e s , a l
though it is still w ell be
low Novem ber and De
cem ber levels. The w eek
ly level -\f sale s needed
in 1956 to be the e q u iv a
lent of N ovem ber-Janua ry is shown by the
broken line.
I 50
100
50
0
I
IN D E.
Seasonally
A d ju s t e d
1947
150
The a v e ra g e level of
s e a s o n a lly a d | u ste d
sale s since la st N ovem
ber has been a b o u t 119
percent of 1947-49 a v e r
a g e d a ily sales. To m ain
tain this p ace during the
1956 E aste r shopping
season w ill require the
a v e r a g e sa l es level
( s e a s o n a l l y adjusted)
show n by the broken
b lack line.
CU RREN T (’55-'56)
X
100
50
0
J __ I__ L
5
12
19 26
I
3
NOV
I
10
I
I
17 24 31
DEC
I
J___I___I___L I
7
14 21 26
JAN
I
I
II
18 25
FEB
:-end dates on scale are from 1955-56 calendar.)
8
I
J__ I__ I__ L
3
IO 17 24 31
MAR
I
I
I
7
14 21 28
A PR
I
I
when it comes relatively late, at least in the
Fourth District. For 1956, as compared with
1955, this consideration offsets the fact that
sales are expected to be slightly higher in the
final week before Easter than in the second
week before Easter.
Weekly Indexes
Additional perspective on Easter-season
trade may be obtained from the accompanying
chart which portrays recent behavior of the
weekly sales index of Fourth District depart
ment stores—with and without adjustment for
seasonal variation. The colored line depicts the
course of weekly sales for November 1954
through April 1955, thus embracing both the
Christmas and Easter trading seasons. The
black line covers the same span of months for
the 1955-56 period to date, with the index
brought up to date through part of February,
the latest available information at press time,
and with the Easter season still lying ahead.
It is obvious from the upper segment of the
chart, showing the unadjusted index, that the
typical Easter bulge in sales is of relatively
small magnitude when viewed against the
overshadowing Christmas peak. On this ac
count, it may be suspected that the marked
public emphasis ordinarily given to news con
cerning the tempo of Easter-season trade is
not completely justified by the magnitudes in
volved. Furthermore, there is evidence that
the trend over the years has been in the direc
tion of an increase in the relative share of the
year’s total represented by Christmas trade
and a decrease in the share represented by
Easter-season trade. That is the case, at least,
in the Fourth Federal Reserve District.
“ target” or goal for the Easter season just
ahead. Thus, instead of asking what sales
would be required, during given weeks, to
equal last year’s Easter performance in gen
eral (as was the subject matter of Table 1)
the following question might well be posed:
What sales performance will be needed during
the 1956 Easter season in order to maintain
the level of seasonally adjusted sales which has
characterized recent months, i.e. from Novem
ber 1955 through January 1956? The answer
to the question may be seen graphically by the
broken black lines, plotted at the March and
April positions on both the unadjusted and
adjusted segments of the chart.
Table 2 shows how such a target works out
in terms of year-to-year percentage changes in
sales which would be needed during each of
the six weeks of the Easter season in order to
continue the November-January sales pace
and, at the same time, maintain the normal
pattern of Easter trade. For example, in the
fourth pre-Easter week this year, District sales
should be as much as 14 percent above the
year-ago week in order to meet the target. For
Table 2
SALES INCREASES OR DECREASES
OVER YEAR-AGO WEEK
(Fourth District Department Store Sales)
1956 Week
Ending
Required to Equal Pace of
November-January in the
Typical Eastern Pattern
A Target for 1956 Easter Trade
March 10
17
24
31
April
7
14
+ 14
+ 9
+25
+11
-1 5
+ 9
The indexes shown on the chart, whether in
the adjusted or unadjusted form, bring out
quite clearly that the general level of sales
during the early part of this year, as well as
during the Christmas season just past, has
been appreciably above the year-ago position.
This raises the question of an appropriate
the week ended March 24, 1956, the second
pre-Easter week, District sales would need a
year-to-year gain of 25 percent in order to
maintain the typical Easter rise at the required
level. The large gain for that week is required
9
because of the reduced level of sales in the
year-ago week caused by the unusual snow
storm of that time.(2)
For the week ended April 7, the first postEaster week, when a sizable decline in sales
volume can usually be expected, District sales
(2) It should be noticed that the "targets” outlined at this
point presuppose not only the stipulated level of Easter trade
(i.e. the November-January seasonally adjusted pace) but also
presuppose that the typical pattern of change occurs from
week to week during the Easter season. Particular weeks when
trade was unusually slow last year therefore require larger
year-to-year percentage gains than weeks which showed a
strong performance last year. The latter principle is not oper
ative in Table 1, which is based entirely on seasonal adjust
ment factors in the changed calendar context, regardless of
last year’s specific performance.
could be 15 percent below the volume of the
year-ago week (the peak sales week of the 1955
season) without impairment of “ target” per
formance.
In conclusion, it should be emphasized that
any of the adjustments, allowances, or “ cor
rections” discussed above are merely approxi
mations of behavior which can be reasonably
expected on the basis of average experience in
the past. Because the data apply only to
Fourth District department stores, they should
not be taken as representative of total retail
trade either of the District or of the nation.
Part-Time Farming
(Continued, from Page 5)
the recent period which may or may not have a
corresponding influence in the future. First
is the rapid urban and industrial development
and the accompanying employment opportuni
ties which have characterized most of the years
since the war. Second is the decline in farm
income which was a factor of some conse
quence, particularly since 1951. Obviously
these two influences are subject to change.
Another factor which has enabled many
operators to avail themselves of off-farm em
ployment while continuing to operate their
farm has been the increased application of
technological developments in farming. This
10
will apparently continue, although the rate of
application may vary, as it has in previous
periods. Periods of rapid application of im
proved methods such as have prevailed in
recent years tend to free more operators for
off-farm work than periods when the rate of
application is less rapid, as was the case prior
to World War II. Altogether, it seems likely
that the shift from farm to nonfarm employ
ment will continue and that, at least for some
years ahead, an increasing proportion of farm
operators will engage in off-farm work to the
extent that opportunities for such employment
exist.
Additional
copies
of
the
M O N TH LY
BUSINESS
REVIEW may be obtained from the Research De
partment,
Federal
Reserve
Bank
of
Cleveland,
Cleveland 1, Ohio. Permission is granted to repro
duce any material in this publication.
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