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JUNE 1948 CONTENTS Recent Banking Developments. Keview . 1 Construction Trends in the Fourth District 3 National Business Conditions 9 District Statistical Tables . . . . ... . 1*0-11 F IN A N C E • IN D U S T R Y • A G R IC U L T U R E • T R A D E FOURTH Vol. 30— No. 6 FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Cleveland 1, Ohio Recent Banking Developments Commercial D uring recent m onths the cessation in Loans Level the upw ard postwar trend of comOff mercial loans has been a noteworthy feature in the F ourth District banking picture. At m id-M ay com m ercial loan totals at re porting m em ber banks were no higher than at the turn of the year. This stability in business loans out standing affords a rath er m arked contrast w ith the preceding strong upw ard movement w hich was sub ject to only a few brief interruptions for over two years. T h e significance of this development, which has been nationw ide in scope, is th at expansion of the money supply through commercial bank lending was halted, at least tem porarily. Among the causes of / LOANS or REPORTING MEMBER BANKS* Fourth District M IL L IO N S OF D O L L A R S OF M IL L IO N S D OLLARS this leveling off were such factors as requests by banking associations and supervisory agencies th at business loans be confined to productive purposes. C aution on the p art of the banks in this period of booming business activity was an equally im portant influence. In m any sections of the country, further more, a seasonal slackening in the dem and for funds may have been a contributing factor. ■. In contem plating the future trend of commercial loans, general business conditions are of course of prim e im portance. M any observers of business trends have described the present situation as one in.w hich expansive and contractive forces are in approxim ate balance. M arshall Plan and defense expenditures, for example, are seen merely as forces offsetting INVESTM ENTS OF R EPO R TIN G MEMBER BANKS* Fourth District 'M IL L IO N S OF D OLLARS M 1L M Q N £ OF D O LLAR S 1, 0 00 ]------------------- J j.i I I I ■ I i I ■ I , I ■I ■I ■ I , I ■ I , I . . for the first time since the war, commercial loans failed to expand during the late winter and spring months. Only real estate loans continued in an uninterrupted ‘ upward trend. * L ast W ed n esd ay o f m o n th d ata, http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ d a te p lo tte d , M ay 19, 1948. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1945-1947. W eek ly d ata, 1948. L ast . . . . total investments have changed very little since the first of 1948, but there has been a decided shift from Treasury bonds into shorter maturities. * L ast W ed n esd a y o f m o n th d a ta , 1945-1947. d a te p lo tte d , M ay 19, 1948. W ee k ly d a ta , 1948. Last Monthly Business Review Page 2 factors of dim inishing potence elsewhere in the economy. In the event such a state of equilibrium prevails in future months, any resumption of the upw ard trend of business loans will probably be of rather m oderate proportions. A sharp expansion in business loans should be expected if defense expenditures are later scheduled (or expected to be scheduled) on a vaster scale th an has been thus far announced, whereas a contraction in such lending will occur only in the event of a set-back in business activity. Real Estate Loans Continue Upward Despite widespread com m ent to the effect th a t real estate credit has been tightening, portfolios of real estate loans at F ourth District re porting banks have advanced steadily in recent m onths and this trend has been duplicated through out most of the U nited States. Consum er loans have likewise edged upw ard, although loans on securities and “ all other” loans have eased off som ewhat. Thus far in 1948 the trends in the various loan classifica tions have resulted in a rather static figure for total loans, particularly in the largest cities of the District such as Cleveland, Pittsburgh, C incinnati, Colum bus, D ayton an d Toledo. In other cities of the District, banks w ith deposits of over $10 million experienced a nom inal increase in total loans during the first four m onths of 1948. O n the other hand, all m em ber banks with deposits under $10 m illion reported a gain of almost 10 percent in loans during this period. A sim ilar varia tion between country banks and large city banks has been observed in the U nited States as a whole. This difference between large and smaller banks in the behavior of loan totals probably has been sea sonal in part, b u t the com paratively greater im portDEPOSITS OF R EPO R TIN G MEMBER BANKS* Fourth District M IL L IO N S COLLARS MILLIONS or DOLLARS or 40001-------------- ----------------- *000 June 1, 1948 ance of real estate and consum er loans at smaller banks may likewise have been a factor of consider able weight. Shift to ShortTerm Governments Continues Last N ovem ber the weekly reporting m em ber banks began to reduce their portfolios of G overnm ent bonds while ad d ing to their holdings of short-term T reasury obliga tions, thus reversing the postwar trend w hich had prevailed up to th at time. This shift into short-term obligations has continued through 1948 to date. This switch in holdings has in p art been forced upon banks because the T reasury has refunded m aturing bond issues w ith certificates or notes. For example, l / s % certificates were offered in exchange for the 2’s and 2 % ’s w hich were redeem ed during M arch, and are also being offered in exchange for the 1^4’s w hich m ature this m onth. Also, short term interest rates have risen relatively m ore over the past ten m onths than have long-term rates, and this has played a p art in the growing attractiveness of short-term obligations. Furtherm ore, the m ere expectation of still higher short-term rates was a factor of im portance in th at some owners of short-term bonds (an d the longerterm certificates and notes) at times have endeavored to liquidate p art of those holdings to protect them selves against price declines to which such issues can be subject in the event of rising yield patterns on short-term obligations. At the same time, anticipa tions of higher short-term rates stim ulated purchases of certificates nearing m aturity inasm uch as those issues ordinarily entail subscription rights to new issues which m ight bear higher interest rates. (Continued on page 8) ANNUAL TU R N O V ER RATE OF ADJUSTED DEM AND DEPOSITS* (Weekly Reporting Banks—Fourth District) ANNUAL R A TG ANNUAL R A TE DEMAND IN TER B A N K GOVERNM E N T A I < I ■I t I ' I ' I ' 1 9 4 ft . . . . demand deposits have not yet regained the ground lost during the months of heavy income tax payments, and time deposits have failed to advance since last fall. * L ast W ed n esd a y o f m o n th d a ta , 1945-1947. Digitized dfor FRASER a te p lo tte d , M ay 19, 1948. W eek ly d a ta , 1948. L ast . . . . thus far in 1948 checking account balances have been more active than was the case a year ago. * M o n th ly averages, 1946-1947. w eek e n d e d M ay 19, 1948. W ee k ly d a ta 1948. L a st d a te p lo tte d , June 1, 1948 P age 3 Monthly Business Review Construction Trends in the Fourth District In analyzing the current situation in the construc tion industry in the F o urth District it is im portant to recognize at the outset th a t most of the activity is concentrated in the ten large m etropolitan areas, shown on the next page. Last year those ten m etropolitan areas w ith 5 2 / 2 percent of the 1940 population accounted for 88 per cent of all residential construction contracts aw arded in the District and 68 percent of all construction con tracts com bined. T h a t represents a som ewhat greater concentration of building activity in urban and suburban areas th an was the general rule during the preceding decade an d a half. For example, during 1947 only 12 percent of residential contracts were aw arded outside the m etropolitan areas whereas the average for 1931-1946 was 21 percent. Similarly, the proportion of all types of non m etropolitan construction was reduced from an average of 41 percent in 1931-1946 to 32 percent in 1947. Am ong the three largest cities, P ittsburgh’s proportion showed the greatest expansion. These three big centers— Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and C in cinnati— com bined have added a total of $900 million w orth of nonresidential construction and $1,100 million in residential building during the years since 1930. T h e accum ulation of the non residential portion is shown on an accom panying chart together w ith bars representing the “ value added by m anufacture” during 1939. T h e significance of this comparison is th a t the am ount of nonresidential construction is tied closely to the am ount of m anufacturing done in the three cities. For example, C incinnati’s 17-year total of nonresidential construction is $179 million com pared w ith $359 m illion for Pittsburgh and $363 million for Cleveland. But on the basis of the am ount of “ value added” (vertical bars) C incinnati’s accum ulation is relatively greater th an th a t of Pittsburgh and about the same as in Cleveland. A nother measure of the sig nificance of these 17-year totals is the application of a population factor. This is shown graphically on an adjoining chart of the accum ulated per capita (1940) dollar value of construction year by year for each city. T his rough measure develops the fact th at C leveland has erected a cum ulative total of $286 per capita of nonresidential facilities, Cincinnati $225, and Pittsburgh $192. T h e m etropolitan area m aking the best perform ance on this basis is D ayton, with $354 per capita. Adm ittedly, using 1940 population as a base in troduces errors of varying degrees am ong the differ ent cities. Population in the Columbus area, for instance, has increased an estim ated 18 percent since 1940, while Youngstown has increased only 2 per cent. T here is considerable m erit, however, in using the m id-point of the period under review, particu larly when those d ata are m ore accurate th a n any m ore recept estimates. T h e year 1929, which represents the closing phase of the construction boom of the ’twenties, offers an interesting background for 1947 performances. In the ten-m etropolitan areas com bined, the 1947 dollar totals were about double those of 1929. (N o adjust m ent has been m ade for price increases.) M oreover, most of the gain over 1929 has been m ade in resi dential construction. This increase in im portance of residential construction is observable in each of / C O N ST R U C T IO N C O N T R A C T S AW ARDED TO TA L 1931-1946=100% RESIDENTIAL 1947=100% . . . . the metropolitan share of Fourth District construction increased from an average of 59 percent in 1931-46, to 68 percent in 1947. Source:forF FRASER . W . D o d g e C orp oration . Digitized IN THE FOURTH DISTRICT 1931-1946=100% 1947=100% . . . . ten metropolitan areas, with around 55 percent of the Fourth District population, accounted for 88 percent of the residential construction in the District during 1947, as against 79 percent in the period 1931-46. Page 4 Monthly Business Review the individual m etropolitan areas, w ith the exception of Akron. June 1, 194 8 FO U R TH FEDERAL RESERVE D IST R IC T TE N M ETR O PO LITA N AREAS as defined by F. W. Dodge Corporation Trends in Selected Areas Pittsburgh— T h e Pittsburgh m etropolitan area, com prising three Pennsylvania counties, had a 1940 population of 1,872,000 and since has increased by about 5 percent. From 1930 through 1947 a total of $339 million in residential contracts were aw arded. T he largest year was 1947, when residential construction am ounted to $60j/2 m illion; 1941 with $53 million was second (b u t first in num ber of dwelling units involved) and 1946 ran a close third dollarwise at $52 million. T h e Pittsburgh area built nearly $360 million in nonresidential facilities in the period 19311947, of w hich $62 m illion occurred in 1942. As was th e case in most of the country, the year 1942 was, by a com fortable m argin, the most active year in nonresidential building, because of the inaugura tion of the bulk of w ar construction in th a t year. T h e first qu arter of 1948 for the Pittsburgh area shows a substantial drop in residential building from the first qu arter of 1947 b u t a gain in nonresidential construction, w ith the result th a t the com bined total is about an even m atch w ith last year’s perform ance. A lthough total dwelling units provided in the first four m onths in the Pittsburgh territory are less th an half the num ber contracted for in the same period a year ago, A pril showed a strong comeback, m atching volume in the same m onth last year and indicating a possible u p tu rn in the trend. Cleveland — T h e accum ulation of nonresidential building in the Cleveland area over the past 17 years is shown in the accom panying chart along w ith Pitts burgh an d Cincinnati. T here was very little variation in the rate of growth of the two largest areas, and the N ONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS Awarded in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati Cumulative, 1931-1947 M ILLION S OF D O LLA R S 700|----------------- M ILLIONS OF D OLLARS ------------------ [700 BARS REPRESENT "VALUE ADOED BY MANUFACTURE, 1939" * “ E 'n c i n n a t i . . . . nonresidential construction was most active in the Cleveland area—in terms of 1939 manufacturing capacity or volume. DigitizedSource: for FRASER D e p a r tm e n t o f C om m erce, a n d F. W . D o d g e C o rp o ra tio n . end-totals were virtually equal. In both cases the biggest year was 1942. In residential building the greatest activity in contracts aw arded in the Cleveland area occurred in 1946, w ith a total of about $80 million, followed by $68 million in 1947. These two years, for dollar volume, were in a class by themselves and accounted for over 30 percent of the 1931-1947 total of $462 million in residential construction. Dwelling units being contracted for in the Cleveland territory in April exceeded the num ber in Ih e sam e m onth last year, although the total for the first four m onths of 1948 is 18 percent below th at of the sam e period last year. Cincinnati — T h e four-county C incinnati area last year experienced its greatest construction activity, dollarwise, in the past 17 years. T h e total of $68 million represented $20 m illion in non residential construction, $37 m illion in residential building, and the $11 million rem ainder was accounted for by utilities and public works. O ver the 17-year period 1931-1947, a total of $262 million in residential facilities and $179 million in nonresi dential building have been accum ulated in the area. June 1, 1948 Monthly Business Review W hen construction is converted to a per capita basis, C incinnati ranks between Pittsburgh and Cleveland in both categories as shown by the adjoining charts. Currently, residential building is below last year both in dollars and in the num ber of dwelling units provided by apartm ent and house building. For every ten units contracted for in the first four m onths last year only seven were provided this year. Youngstow n — O ver the years since 1930 Youngs town has added $108 million to its nonresidential facilities, as against only $45 million in housing. In com parison of the first quarter of 1948 with the same period a year ago, the Youngstown area showed a 56 percent drop in residential building, and a 141 percent gain in nonresidential construction, resulting in an over-all increase of 25 percent for all types combined. Colum bus — Columbus has h ad the largest in crem ent in housing facilities per capita of all the P age 5 ten m etropolitan areas studied, w ith a ratio of $428 per person. P a rt of the explanation lies in the 18 percent increase in population since 1940, a rise for which no adjustm ent has been m ade in the accom panying chart for reasons stated earlier. This detracts little from the fact th at the Colum bus area placed a very high fourth in the 1931-1947 volume of residential construction, w ith a total of $166 million, one-half the am ount recorded for Pittsburgh, an area w ith well over four times the population. Nonresidential building in the past 17 years adds up to $97 million, seventh place am ong the ten areas. First quarter 1948 d ata show over-all Columbus construction to be about on a p a r w ith 1947 as a lag in hom e building was offset by gains in other types. Toledo — In this one-county m etropolitan area houses and apartm ents costing nearly $70 million PER C A P IT A VALUE OF CO N ST R U C T IO N C O N T R A C T S A W A R D ED * cumulative, 1931-1947 DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS 450|----------N ONRESIDENTIAL COLUMBUS >^rouNGST(>A/N V . • CINCINNATI .PITTSBURGH . . . . total residential construction over the 17 years in these cities ranged from $96 per capita in Youngstown to $428 in Columbus. In nonresidential construction the Cleveland area led with $286. . . . . in these five cities cumulative residential construction since 1930 has ranged from $123 per capita (Erie) to $357 (Dayton). T he rate of nonresidential construction likewise was far from uniform. R a tio s c o m p u ted fro m p o p u la tio n d ata o f th e B u rea u o f th e C ensus a n d fro m co n stru ctio n re p o r te d by th e F. W . D o d g e C o rp o ra tio n . aw ard ed as con tracts P age 6 Monthly Business Review C O NSTRUCTIO N CONTRACTS AWARDED IN TEN M ETROPOLITAN AREAS* OF T H E FO U R TH D IST R IC T (note difference in scales of the three charts below) M ILLION S OF M IL L IO N S OF June 1, 1948 were built between 1930 and 1948, together w ith $99 million in factories, office buildings, hospitals, and other nonresidential types. O n a per capita basis this m eans $202 in housing an d $286 in nonresiden tial building, com pared w ith averages of $243 and $234, respectively, for the ten m etropolitan areas as a whole. In the accom panying set of charts showing 1929 construction com pared w ith 1947, Toledo shows a smaller increase th an any other city except Akron. In Toledo 1947 construction fell short of the totals for 1941, 1942, and 1946. In the first q u arter of 1948 Toledo showed gains over the corresponding period last year in both resi dential and nonresidential building. A kron— A total of $202 per person in the Akron m etropolitan area was spent for residential building in the past 17 years, and an additional per capita o u t lay of $189 was m ade for nonresidential facilities. T h e high point in nonresidential building activity was in 1942 w ith a total of $12 m illion in contracts aw arded. N one of the postw ar years has approached this peak. Akron was the only area in w hich the 1947 total was lower th an in 1929. In residential building, however, 1947 was the highest in the past 17 years, w ith a total of $10 million. Akron is currently ahead of last year in nonresi dential activity and about even w ith respect to all types combined. M ILLION S O F D O LLA R S M IL L IO N S O F DOLLARS . . . . 1947 residential construction exceeded 1929 in each o f the ten areas. Increases also occurred in nonresidential construction in the Pittsburgh, Columbus, Dayton, and Youngstown areas, as against shrinkages in Cincinnati, Toledo, and Akron. as FRASER d efin ed b y F. W . D o d g e C o rp o ra tio n an d Digitized *for m a p . Source: F. W . D o d g e C o rp o ra tio n . sh o w n o n a cc o m p a n y in g Dayton — D ayton ranks high am ong the F ourth District m etropolitan areas in construction per capita over the 1931-1947 period. Its 17-year increm ent was $357 per capita for homes and apartm ents, $354 for factories, offices, and other nonresidential construc tion. Both these ratios are well above the average for the ten m etropolitan areas. Dayton reversed the trend established in other areas in the first q uarter of 1948 by showing a drop from last year in nonresidential construction an d a rise in residential building. T otal construction for all types of buildings was about 40 percent below the same m onths of 1947. C anton and Erie — C anton an d Erie are the smallest of the ten m etropolitan areas ranked in this discussion, according to population, construction con tracts aw arded, an d construction on a per capita basis. C anton’s total for all types last year was $12,740,000, largest since 1941, while E rie’s contracts were valued a t $10,560,000, highest in the 1931-1947 period. In the first q uarter of 1948 C anton experienced a decline from the sam e q u arter last year in both resi dential and nonresidential construction, while the situation in Erie was mixed, w ith a gain in the non residential class exceeding the decline in the residen tial category. June 1, 1948 Sponsorship l n an area roughly com parable to the Fourth District, the proportion of privately owned construction undertaken in 1947 was 72 percent of the total, or about the sam e as ten years earlier, although during the intervening w ar years, the bulk of contracts aw arded were for p u b licly financed construction. T he proportion of public ownership involved in contracts aw arded in the first four m onths of 1948 was approxim ately 30 percent, about the same as in 1947. In the Pittsburgh territory* public financing has been most prom inent in the public works and utilities category. In the first four m onths of 1948 about 80 percent of public works and utilities construction was publicly financed, com pared with 65 percent for the whole of 1947, and 80 percent in 1946. T he most im portant com ponents of the public works classification are streets and highways, bridges, parks and playgrounds, sewerage systems and other publicly owned service facilities. C onstruction activity in these lines has reached new highs after a period of abnor m ally low expenditures during the war. In the resi dential field almost no public funds were spent during 1946 an d 1947 and the sam e condition existed in the first four m onths of this year. T h e same type of situa tion prevails in the Cleveland and Cincinnati territories. As shown in the chart, public funds accounted for 28 percent of 1947 construction contracts aw arded in the 3 / 2 states covered by the Pittsburgh-ClevelandC incinnati territories. In view of the large road repair program s and other plans calling for public expenditures this source of construction activity should continue to help sustain over-all building at high levels. Summary As gauged by F. W . Dodge reports of contracts aw arded, total construction for the U nited States East of the Rockies in the first four m onths of 1948 was up 29 percent from the same period last year. T h a t gain was accounted for largely by increases in all types of nonresidential building w ith the single exception of factories, which dropped 15 percent. T h e residential dollar total was slightly larger th an last year b u t both the num ber of dwell ing units and the aggregate floor area were smaller. In the factory classification the decline is distrib uted throughout various types of industries such as petroleum (off 80 per cent), chemicals (dow n 20 percent), food products, m achinery m anufacturing and others. Iron and steel, m etal working and lum ber and woodworking divisions were the only groups to show year-to-year gains in the first quarter. In the F ourth District total construction was up 15 percent com pared with the 29 percent for the 37 Eastern states. Large gains were m ade in non* A s d is tin g u is h e d from " M etro p o lita n area” w h ich is m u ch sm aller. T h e th ree F . W . D o d g e C orp . terr ito ries—C lev e la n d , P ittsb u r g h , and C in c in n for a ti FRASER c o m b in e d —in c lu d e O h io , W estern P en n sy lv a n ia , W est Digitized V ir g in ia a n d K entu ck y. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P age 7 Monthly Business Review residential building and in public works, b u t these were partially offset by decreased residential and utilities construction. W ithin the residential classification in the first four m onths of the year there has been a 46 percent drop from last year in houses built for sale or rent. A decline of 9 percent occurred in the contracts aw arded for apartm ent buildings. Houses for occu pancy by the builder-ow ner increased in num ber over the same period as did dorm itories and other types of shelter. T he decline in the num ber of houses built for sale or rent shows th a t speculative builders have been holding back. R eluctance to make forw ard com m it ments at the peak rate in the housing field m ay be based on the following conditions: (1) Builders seem to be m ore aw are of a tightening in m ortgage money th an buyers are, which accordingly has a m ore ad verse effect on supply th an on dem and. (2) For some tim e builders have been anticipating the appear ance of effective buyer resistance. This has not yet m aterialized, at least in the “ $10,000-and-under” price bracket. (3) T here is a long-range hous ing bill before Congress which aims a t the construc tion of 12,500,000 homes in ten years. T h e im pli cations of the public housing portion of this program m ay be a restraining factor in the present plans of private builders. (4 ) Building costs continue to rise, but builders are m ore cautious th an ever about m aking com pensatory adjustm ents in price. C urrent hom e building costs in Cleveland are 130 percent above 1926-9 levels and m ore than double CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED IN T H E COMBINED PITTSBU R G H , CLEVELAND, CIN CINN A TI TE R R IT O R IES! by type of ownership MILLIONS D O LLA R S or MILLIONS OF D O LLA R S . . . . in the postwar period to date, over 70 percent of all construction in this area has been privately financed, which is probably the largest proportion for a period of similar length since the 1920’s. t F. W . D o d g e C o rp o ra tio n d e sig n a tio n s, th e area K en tu ck y , W est V ir g in ia , a n d W estern P e n n sy lv a n ia . in clu d es * E stim a te based o n d a ta fo r th e first fo u r m o n th s o f 1948. S ource: F. W . D o d g e C o rp o ra tio n . O h io , Monthly Business Review P age 8 the 1940 averages. Sim ilar increases have occurred in other cities throughout this region. O n the opposite side of the current picture are these factors: (1) H om e buyers appear to have become reconciled to a continuation of high prices for houses, and it is commonly found th at they dem and higher quality construction th an in the im m ediate postw ar period. (2) Prospects seem good th a t personal income will rem ain at high levels, thus encouraging potential buyers to enter into the long term obligations which m ortgages entail. (3) T here has been no abatem ent in the shortage of rental units, as was stated above. T h e absence of available rental units increases the dem and for ownership. (4) T he “ delivery tim e” on houses has been reduced notice ably since m aterials have become m ore plentiful. June 1, 1948 This has m itigated the effect of rising prices on contractual obligations, enabling builders to enter m ore frequently into firm contracts. W hether there is a precise balance between favor able and unfavorable factors seems difficult of appraisal. T here seems substantial ground, however, for contending th a t the recent indications of an uptu rn in hom e building in A pril m ay be a forerun ner of a banner year in residential construction, despite the lull during the earlier m onths of this year. M eanwhile nonresidential construction and public works seem destined to continue a t high levels because of the great backlog of delayed construction of m any types of local educational, m unicipal, and highway facilities, and the gradual easing of the m aterials bottleneck. RECENT B A N K IN G DEVELO PM ENTS — Continued from Page 2 These adjustm ents in the composition of portfolios have produced only m inor changes this year in figures on total investments. D ata to m id-M ay for the weekly reporting m em ber banks show a m oderate rise in total investments, while country banks report slight de creases over approxim ately the same interval. Seasonal Reduction in Demand Deposits Adjusted dem and deposits of individuals and corporations a t F ourth District weekly reporting m em ber banks declined about percent between Jan u ary 1 and M arch 17, largely because of income tax paym ents, but by m id-M ay a portion of the losses of the preceding m onths had been re gained. T h e degree of contraction this year was slightly greater th an in 1947, in p art because of larger tax paym ents and also because this year loan totals were stable at the reporting banks. T h e pressure on m em ber bank reserves which accom panied this transfer of deposits to Treasury accounts was m et in p art by a more th an seasonal retu rn flow of currency from circulation, by gold imports, an d by excess reserves which some banks accum ulated in the closing weeks of 1947 through sales of securities. For the rem ainder of 1948, dem and deposit fluc tuations a t F ourth District banks probably will be largely a reflection of developments in the loan field. Last year the expansion in commercial, real estate and consumer loans was offset in large part* by a contraction of total investments, which in turn was the result of public debt reduction out of the substantial T reasury cash surplus. C redit or deposit expansion in 1947 was thereby held to a m oderate level. R ecent tax reductions and plans for enlarged G overnm ent outlays, however, virtually eliminate the prospects for a cash surplus of any consequence during the coming months, and as a result there is not likely to be any offsetting deflationary factor in the event loan figures again move upw ard. Time Deposits Unchanged I t m ay be observed from an accompanying chart th a t tim e deposit totals have been virtually unchanged since last fall, thus offering a sharp contrast to the steadily upw ard trend of the w ar and early postwar years. In recent m onths, furtherm ore, slight reductions have occurred in time deposits of indi viduals and businesses, and the figure for total time deposits has been m aintained only by advances in the accounts of m unicipal and state governments. This contraction in individual and business accounts could best be described as nom inal to date, but nevertheless it is apparent th a t on balance the public has stopped adding to savings accounts in com m er cial banks. N et gains are still accruing am ong other avenues for saving, such as U nited States savings bonds and shares in savings and loan associations, b u t the increm ents are som ewhat sm aller th an in the cor responding m onths of a year ago. An additional indication of a declining tendency to save m ay be noted in the accom panying chart on the turnover of dem and deposits in weekly reporting m em ber banks. T he chart suggests th a t checking account balances are persistently being spent m ore quickly than was the case a year ago. A N N O U N C EM EN T S T he T hirty-fourth A nnual R eport of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, covering operations for the calendar year 1947, is available for distribution. Copies m ay be obtained by w riting to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of A dm inistrative Services, W ash ington 25, D. C. June 1, 1948 Monthly Business Review P age 9 SUMMARY OF NATIONAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Released for publication M a y 26, 1948) Ind u strial production decreased in A pril and in creased in May owing chiefly to changes in coal production and supplies. D epartm ent store sales were at exceptionally high levels following the Easter shopping period. W holesale and retail price levels were higher, reflecting chiefly increases in m eat prices. Industrial Production T h e B oard’s seasonally adjusted index of industrial production declined 5 points in A pril to 187 per cent of the 1935-39 average, reflecting chiefly lower o u tp u t of iron and steel resulting from the labor dispute at coal mines, which began in the m iddle of March. Following settlem ent of the dispute around the m id dle of A pril, o u tp u t of coal and steel increased and the total index in May is expected to be around 190. Steel production reached a low point of 71 per cent of capacity in the th ird week of April, as com pared w ith a M arch average of 95 per cent, then advanced rapidly to a rate of 97 percent in the fourth week of May. A utom obile o u tp u t was substantially curtailed in the first 3 weeks of May, as pig iron and steel sup plies continued short and a work stoppage began at the plants of a m ajor autom obile company. Lum ber output, adjusted for seasonal variation, declined 9 per cent in April, owing in large part to work stop pages on the W est Coast. O u tp u t of nondurable goods showed a further slight decline in April. According to prelim inary indica tions textile production was below the M arch level. Coke production was sharply curtailed because of reduced coal supplies. Activity in the rubber products industry and in some chemical industries declined. O n the other hand, production of gasoline increased, and new sprint consum ption showed somewhat more than the usual seasonal rise. Coal production for the m onth of A pril was in about the same small volume as in March. O u tp u t of crude petroleum was m aintained at a record level, and there was an exceptionally large increase in o u t p u t of iron ore. Construction Value of construction contracts awarded expanded sharply in April, according to the F. W. Dodge C or poration, reflecting chiefly large increases in aw ards for private residential construction and for religious and other institutional buildings. Awards for m anu facturing plants and public works and utilities showed little change from the levels prevailing in recent months. Distribution D epartm ent store sales, which usually decline after the Easter shopping season, were m aintained this year and the B oard’s seasonally adjusted index rose from 284 in M arch to 299 in April, w ith some further rise indicated for May. R ailroad shipm ents of coal and coke showed a sharp increase in the latter part of A pril following the end of the coal strike. Shipm ents of perishable goods were curtailed tem porarily in the m iddle of May in antici pation of a rail strike which was subsequently called off. Carloadings of most classes of m anufactured goods continued to show little change in A pril and the first half of May. Commodity Prices W holesale prices of meats, livestock, and vegetable oils advanced from the m iddle of A pril to the third week of May, while most other farm products and foods showed little change or declined somewhat. Price changes were also m ixed for industrial m aterials. W ool tops, coal, coke, and building m aterials were higher in this period, reflecting in p art freight rate increases, while prices of steel, cotton grey goods, and certain other m aterials were reduced somewhat. Price reductions were announced for various electrical products. Consumer prices in m id-April were 1.4 per cent higher than in M arch and exceeded slightly the pre vious peak reached in January. T h e advance in April reflected higher retail prices for foods, owing chiefly to reduced supplies of meats and fresh vegetables, and further rises in prices for various consumer services. Bank Credit L ittle change occurred in member bank reserve positions in the last half of A pril and the first two weeks of May. T reasury operations were largely neutral in their effect on total bank reserves. A further m oderate gold inflow perm itted a small , reduction in Reserve Bank credit. In the third week of May m em ber bank reserve balances were reduced considerably, in p art as a result of a transfer by the Treasury of funds from w ar loan accounts to its bal ances at Reserve Banks. In addition, m em ber banks used reserve funds to purchase in the m arket T reas ury bills held by the Reserve Banks, w ith the result th at the reserves of m any large city banks fell tem porarily below requirem ents. Real estate and consumer loans continued to expand at banks in leading cities during A pril and the first half of May. Commercial and industrial loans in creased somewhat during May following a decline in earlier m onths of the year. Security Markets Prices of common stocks showed a m arked further rise in the m iddle of May to a level 14 per cent below the high of May 1946, according to Standard and Poor’s index of 90 stocks. Volume of trading was u n usually large. Following the Treasury announcem ent on May 13 that Ju n e and July certificate m aturities would be refunded at ly* per cent, prices of T reasury bonds advanced sharply. Page 10 Monthly Business Review June 1, 1948 D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E T R A D E S T A T IS T IC S Sales by Departments— April 1948 Inventories by Departments— April 30, 1948 Percentage Changes from a Y ear Ago Percentage Changes from a Y ear Ago (Fourth D istric t Reporting Stores) (Fourth D istric t Reporting Stores) (C om piled M ay 28, and released for publication M ay 29) (Com piled M ay 28, and released for publication M ay 29) Major H ousehold Appliances............................................................................................ Inexpensive D resses (W omen’s and M isses’) .............................................................. Aprons, Housedresses and U niform s............................................................................. C otton W ash G o o d s............................................................................................................ N o tio n s.................................................................................................................................... +32 -j-24 + 21 +20 Major Household Appliances............................................................................................ M en’s C loth in g...................................................................................................................... D om estic Floor C overings................................................................................................ R adios and Phonographs............................................................................... ................... Sporting Goods and C a m era s.......................................................................................... +82 +46 +40 +27 + 23 Lam ps and S h a d es.............................................................................................................. ..+ 1 9 R adios and Phonographs.................................................................................................. ..+ 1 8 D o m estic Floor C overings..................................................................................................+ 1 7 B louses, S kirts and Sportsw ear...................................................................................... .+ 1 6 C hina and G lassw are......................................................................................................... ..+ 1 5 Luggage.................................................................................................................................... Shoes (W omen’s and C hildren’s ) .................................................................................... Shoes (M en’s and B o y s’) .................................................................................................... Underwear, Slips and N eg lig ees...................................................................................... Infant’sW ea r.......................................................................................................................... +23 +22 +22 +21 +21 Furniture and B edding....................................................................................................... Sporting G oods and C am eras.......................................................................................... H ousew ares............................................................................................................................ G ift S h o p ................................................................................................................................ Luggage................................................................................................................................... +22 +15 + 11 + 11 +10 + 8 Draperies, Curtains, e t c ......................................................................................................+ H o sie ry .....................................................................................................................................+ B etter D resses (W omen’s and M isses')........................................................................ + C oats and Suits (W omen's and M isses’) ...................................................................... .+ R ecords, S h eet M usic, Pianos, e tc ...................................................................................+ 8 7 5 5 4 S ilk s, V e lv e ts and S y n th etics......................................................................................... .+ Linens and T ow els............................................................................................................... ..+ N eckw ear and Scarfs.................. ....................................................................................... .+ Juniors’ C oats, Suits and D resses.....................................................................................+ Silverw are and C lock s....................................................................................................... ..+ 4 4 4 2 2 Underwear, Slips and N egligees..................................................................................... — 1 B lan k ets Comforters and Spreads.................................................................................. — 1 Fine J ew elry and W a tc h e s ............................................................................................... — 2 D om estics (Muslins, S heetin gs)..................................................................................... — 2 W oolen D ress G oods............................................................................. .'........................... — 3 C orsets and Brassieres....................................................................................................... — 4 T oilet A rticles and Drug Sundries................................................................................. — 4 L aces, T rim m ings, e tc ....................................................................................................... — 5 Men’s C loth in g...................................................................................................................... — 7 Furs........................................................................................................................................... — 7 A rt N eed lew ork .................................................................................................................... — 8 Books and S ta tio n ery ......................................................................................................... — 8 G irls’W ear............................................................................................................................. — 10 Shoes (W omen’s and C hildren’s ) ....................................................................................—11 Men’s Furnishings and H a t s ............................................................................................ — 13 T oys and G a m e s.................................................................................................................. —16 C ostum e J e w e lr y .................................................................................................................. — 17 Shoes (M en’s and B o y s’) ................................................................................................... — 18 Infants’W ear.......................................................................................................................... —19 M illinery.................................................................................................................................. —21 H andbags and Sm all L eather G oods............................................................................ —21 Handkerchiefs....................................................................................................................... —26 B o y s’W ear............................................................................................................................. —26 G loves (W omen’s and Children’s ) ..................................................................................—41 C a n d y .......................................................................................................................................—46 Sales of housefurnishings b y Fourth D istric t departm ent stores were up sharply during April, w hile m o st of th e apparel departm ents show ed declining sales. B ase m ent store sales w ere 7% over a year ago, and m ain store sales were up 2%. A ll departm ents in th e housefurnishings group shared in th e sales gains over la st April, w ith an average group increase of 16%. Sales of major household appli ances w ere a t a new all-tim e high, or 32% over la s t April’s. T h e radio and phonograph departm ent w hose sales during each of th e first th ree m onths of th is year had been trailing th e 1947 figures, enjoyed a recovery to th e extent of an 18% in crease over la st April’s sales. Som e of th e April boom in housefurnishings m ay be a ttribu ted to consumers’ guesses about future shortages in th e larger hard-goods ite m s, as a result of th e nation's m ilitary program. T h is factor, how ever, cannot fully explain th e w ide range of gains. D om estic floor coverings, for example, established a new sales record, 17% ab ove a year ago. Sales of lamps and shades, up 19%, equalled th e b est April showing heretofore. Sales of furniture and bedding, and of china and glassware were in each case 15% a b ove a year ago and substantially ab ove th e previous m onth. T h e apparel decline w as le d b y th e m en’s and boys’ w ear departments. Sales in th is group were 13% b elow a year ago, falling to a three-year low for th e m onth. All branches were down, ranging from a 26% cut in sales of boys’ wear to a 7% drop for men’s clothing. T h e w om en’s apparel and accessories group show ed a 1% lo ss in sales from Aprfl 1947. Accessories a s a sub-group were down 11%, for a three-year low for th e m onth. E xtrem e examples are gloves, down 41%; handkerchiefs, down 26%; millinery, down 21%. A number of departm ents in th e wom en’s apparel group, however, registered im portant sales gains. T h ese included inexpensive dresses, up 24%, aprons, house d resses and uniforms, up 22%, and blouses, skirts and sportswear, up 16%. 1 D epartm ents in th e piece goods and household textiles group show ed year-toyear gains averaging 3%. M ost conspicuous increase w as in sales of cotton wash goods w hich w ere up 21% over la s t year. A m ong th e m iscellaneous departm ents, sales of sporting goods and cameras were up 11%, a t an all-tim e high for th e m onth. B y contrast, sales of toys and gam es were off 16%, dropping to a three-year low for th e m onth. Candy sales recorded a 46% lo ss from a year ago. Digitized forA llFRASER comparisons refer to dollar volum e of sales. Fine Jew elry and W a tch es..................................................................................................+ 2 1 Furniture and B ed d in g.........................................................................................................+ 2 0 Silverw are and C lo ck s........................................................................................................ ..+ 1 9 D om estics (Muslins, S h e etin g s)...................................................................................... .+ 1 9 R ecords, S h eet M usic, Pianos, e t c ................................................................................. ..+ 1 8 C orsets and B rassieres........................................................................................................ M illinery.................................................................................................................................. Neckw ear and Scarfs.......................................................................................................... China and G lassw are.......................................................................................................... Juniors’ C oats, Suits and D resses................................................................................... +17 +16 +14 + 13 +13 C oats and Suits (W om en’s and M isses’) ..................................................................... C otton W ash G o o d s............................................................................................................. N otion s.................................................................................................................................... H andbags and S m all L eather G oods............................................................................ Lamps and S h a d es............................................................................................................... +13 +12 +12 +11 +10 Girls’ W ear............................................................................................................................. Furs........................................................................................................................................... S ilks, V elv e ts and S y n th e tic s.......................................................................................... H ousew ares............................................................................................................................. B lankets, Comforters and Spreads................................................................................. +10 + 9 + 7 + 3 + 2 Men’s Furnishings and H a ts ............................................................................................. + 1 H o sie ry .................................................................................................................................... + 1 A rt N eedlew ork....................................................................................................................—0 — B etter D resses (W om en’s and M isses').........................................................................— 1 Inexpensive D resses (W omen’s a n d M isse s’) ...............................................................— 1 C ostum e J e w e lr y .................................................................................................................. — 1 Books and S ta tio n ery .......................................................................................................... — 1 T o ilet A rticles and Drug Sundries................................................................................. — 1 Draperies, Curtains, e t c ......... ...........................................................................................— 1 Aprons, H ousedresses and U niform s.............................................................................. — 2 Blouses, S kirts and Sportsw ear....................................................................................... — 2 B o y s’W ear..............................................................................................................................— 3 G ift S h o p ................................................................................................................................. — 5 C a n d y ....................................................................................................................................... — 6 W oolen D ress G ood s............................................................................................................— 8 Linens and T o w els................................................................................................................ T o y s and G a m es................................................................................................................... G loves (W om en’s and Children’s ) .................................................................................. Laces, T rim m ings, e t c ........................................................................................................ H andkerchiefs....................................................................................................................... — 8 — 8 — 9 — 9 —16 A t th e close of April inventories of Fourth D istric t departm ent stores were th e h ig h est on record, roughly 5% a b o v e t h e seasonal peak of la s t N ovem b er 30, and 12% ab ove th e figure of a year ago. Am ong ind ivid u al d epartm ents, in ven tories w ere th e la rg est for any m onth on record in m en’s clothing, up 46% for t h e year; m en’s and boys’ shoes, up 22%; women’s and children’s shoes, a lso up 22% over la s t year; infants’ wear, up 21%; dom estics (m u slin s, sheetings), w ith a gain of 19%; cotton w ash goods, up 12%; and notions, w hich w ere up 12%. Inventories of sport goods also sto o d a t record le v e ls a t th e end of A pril, 23% a b o v e a year earlier. N o adjustm ent h as been m ade in any of th ese percentage increases, for changes in th e price le v e l in recent years. W ith respect to major groups, th e la rg est year-to-year gain occurred in house furnishings, w here inventories h eld v irtually a t th e a ll-tim e h igh reached a t th e end of M arch. S to ck s of major household appliances w ere 82% higher th an a year ago, dom estic floor coverings up 40% and radio and phonograph sto ck s w ere 27% a b o v e th e com parable d a te la s t year. In contrast to t h e general pattern of year-to-year increases, in seventeen depart m en ts April 30 inventories w ere th e lo w e st for th e season in tw o years or longer. T h is w as n otab ly true w ith respect t o such ready-to-w ear accessories as handker chiefs, and wom en’s and children’s gloves, of w hich supplies w ere 9% t o 16% below la s t year. Inventories of sm a ll w ares such a s costum e jewelry, books and stationery, toilet articles, and laces; w ere 1% to 9% below a year ago. June 1, 1948 P age 11 Monthly Business Review F IN A N C IA L A N D O T H E R B U S IN E S S S T A T IS T IC S Time Deposits— -12 Fourth District Cities Changes in Consumer Instalment Credit April 1948 (C o m p iled M a y 6, an d released for publication M a y 7.' C ity a n d N u m b e r of B an k s C le v ela n d (4 ) .............. $ 871,845,000 P itts b u r g h (1 2 ).......... 404,605,000 C in c in n ati ( 8 ).............. 182,331,000 A k ro n (3 )...................... 102,801,000 T o led o ( 4 ) .................... C o lu m b u s (3 ).............. Y oungstow n ( 3 ) ........ D a y to n ( 3 ) . .............. 96,135,000 72,897,000 60,748,000 48,219,000 C a n to n ( 5 ).................... E rie (4 )......................... W heeling ( 6 ) ................ Lexington (^5)............... 42,872,000 38,886,000 28,821,000 10,630,000 T O T A L - 12 C ities. $1,960,790,000 26 F o u rth D is tric t M e m b e r B anks* (C o m p ile d M a y 26, an d released for p ublication M a y 27) A verage W eekly C h an g e D uring: A pril Previous Y ear 1948 M o n th Ago T im e D eposits A pril 28, 1948 —$828,000 + 106,000 + 178,000 - 163,000 — *449,000 — 124,000 - 124,000 34,000 -* + + + 105,000 225,000 474,000 204,000 25,000 + 38,000 + 14,000 — 93.000 — 42,000 — 67,000 2,000 72,000 + + + 35,000 93,000 15,000 34,000 + 112,000 20,000 4,000 — 20.000 — 39,000 36,000 5,000 + 5,000 + + + + 77,000 121,000 31,000 10,000 -$666,000 -*975,000 +$1 ,213,000 _ -L. — -f- T im e d ep o sits declined m o d e ra te ly during A pril a t 60 F o u rth D is tric t b an k s. T h e red u ctio n rep resen ted th e fo u rth decline in th e p ast six m o n th s a n d in th e p o stw ar perio d to d a te . T h e rece n t declines h a v e been of r a th e r nom inal proportions, h o w ev er, a n d a s a re s u lt t h e c u rren t tim e d ep o sit to t a l is only a b o u t one-half of one p ercen t b elow th e a ll-tim e h ig h s e t la s t D ecem b er. T h e A p ril red u ctio n is la rg ely a t tr ib u t e d to a dec re ase of tim e deposits in Cleve land. T h e av e ra g e w eek ly decline in t h a t c ity am o u n ted to 1828,000, w h ereas in th e D is tr ic t as a w hole th e red u ctio n w as only $666,000 per w eek , in d icatin g t h a t a n e t expansion in tim e deposits occurred o u tsid e of C leveland. In A pril a y e a r ago C le v ela n d re p o rte d a s lig h t d ec re ase in tim e d ep o sits an d it w as th e only C leveland red u ctio n in a ll of 1947. W ith d ra w a ls for p a y m e n t of re a l e s ta te ta x es a re b elieved to b e a fa c to r in C le v ela n d re p o rts for A pril. Six c itie s re p o rte d gains in tim e deposits during A pril. I t w as th e second succes s iv e a d v a n c e for Youngstown, b u t in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, C olumbus, Canton a n d Erie th e increase rep resen ted a re v e rsa l of th e declines rejw rted for M arch . T h e increase in Canton followed five successive m o n th ly red u ctio n s. A lm o st h alf of th e 60 b an k s w h ic h p a rtic ip a te d in th e su rv ey rep o rted gains in tim e deposits for A pril. O u tstan d in g a t E n d of M o. C o m p a red W ith Y r. Ago M o. Ago +5% +3 +5 + 52% + 13 —74 +6 +1 +59 +44 +6 +9 -r-82 +18 T O T A L .................................... $6,124,834 20 O T H E R C E N T E R S : C o v in g to n -N e w p o rt......... K y . L e x in g to n ............................ K y . E l y r ia ..................................O hio H a m ilto n ........................... O hio L im a ....................................O hio L o ra in ................................. O hio M an sfield ........................... O hio M id d le to w n ...................... O hio P o r ts m o u th .......................O hio S p ring field .........................O hio S te u b e n v ille ...................... O hio W a rr e n ................................ O hio Z a n e s v ille ..........................O hio B u tl e r .............................. P enna. F ra n k lin ..........................Penna. G reen sb u rg .................... P enna. M e a d v ille ....................... P enna. O il C i t y ..........................P enna. S h a ro n .............................Penna. W h e e lin g ........................ W . V a. $39,011 55,486 19,557 38,667 43,567 19,074 42,512 34,530 19,036 45,457 22,527 37,452 25,395 32.096H 7,117 20,385 14.314H 21,844 25,102 54,882 T O T A L .................................... $ 618,011 3 M o n th s E nded A pril 1948 % C hange from Y e a r Ago + 1 0 .8 % *19,800,612 + 14.3% 656,372 317,675 2,610,812 5,016,912 1,509,321 666,427 1,104,515 403,290 254,453 5,450,056 — 0.5 +12.9 +12.1 + 14.9 + 17.5 + 7.3 + 7.4 + 10.6 + 15.4 + 19.4 $18,016,833 + 14.6% + 16.9% +18.1 + 10.4 + 2 4 .4 + 11.4 + 20.7 + 22.4 +27.1 + 1.1 + 3.9 + 11.8 + 12.3 + 16.1 + 22.9 + 8.3 +19.1 + 4.7 + 28.1 + 15.2 + 10.6 $113,803 175,375 58,413 110,683 124,413 52,806 118,070 97,743 58,121 132,225 63,543 104,856 74,007 88,082 19,761 58,831 35,188 62.217H 74,599 161,665 + 14.8% — 11.0 +11.1 + 22.0 + 11.6 + 19.3 +19.1 + 17.8 + 5.8 + 7.6 + 12.6 + 10.5 +17.1 +18.4 +10.3 + 2 3 .0 + 4.6 + 19.3 + 17.0 + 10.8 + 1 5 .3 % $ 1,783,779 + 11.1% + 10.3% * d e b its to a ll d ep osit accounts except in te rb a n k balances. H d en o tes new a ll-tim e h ig h for one m o n th or q u a rte r y ea r. B a n k d e b its d uring A pril in t h i r t y F o u rth D is tric t cities w ere 5 percent below t h e M a rc h level, b u t t h e reduction m a y be a ttr ib u te d in p a rt to t h e fact t h a t A p * l Digitized i s a sh o for rt m FRASER o n th . + 49% + 16 +101 — 4 -3 4 — — 6 +40 + 74 +107 + 40 1 N ew loans m ade in A p ril w ere 5 percen t ab o v e th e preceding m o n th a n d a lm o s t 50 p ercen t h ig h e r th a n a y e a r ago. N ew repair and modernization loans, w h ich a d v a n c e d s h a rp ly in M a rc h , ag ain m o v e d u p w ard for a su b sta n tia l m o n th -to m o n th gain. N ew lo an s in th i s c a te g o ry h a v e b een running a t a b o u t d o uble th e vo lu m e of l a s t y e a r. N ew purchased instalment paper on articles other than auto m obiles lik ew ise w as up s u b s ta n tia lly from th e preceding m o n th a n d from a y e a r ago, b u t d ec re ases occu rred in th e vo lu m e of new lo an s in o th e r loan classificatio n s. * T h e tw en ty -six b an k s, w h ich a re lo c a te d in fifteen citie s, rep resen t a b o u t tw ofifth s of a ll m e m b e r b a n k resources an d a b o u t one-fourth of a ll consum er in s ta l m e n t lo an s o u tsta n d in g a t F o u rth D is tric t m e m b e r b an k s. D a ily A v erag e for 1935-1939=100 % C hange from Y e a r Ago — 0.4 + 13.8 + 13.6 + 12.5 + 6.2 + 4.3 + 0.4 + 7.6 + 11.6 + 12.4 + 5% — 5 + 31 T h e s te a d y u pw ard c lim b in th e vo lu m e of total consumer instalment loans out standing co ntinued during A pril a t F o u rth D is tr ic t b an k s. T h e ad v a n ce a t 26 re porting b an k s cam e to 5 p ercen t an d th e t o t a l is now h alf again a s la rg e a s i t w as a y e a r ago. I t h a s now been 27 m o n th s since a decrease o ccurred in th e t o t a l o u t stan d in g . T h e gain for A p ril in t o t a l consum er in s ta lm e n t c re d it o u tsta n d in g w as th e n et re su lt of new p o stw ar h ig h s in th e vo lu m e of new loans m ade a n d estim ated lean repayments, th e to ta ls for w h ic h even exceeded th e h ig h seasonal p eak s asso ciated w ith t h e re c e n t C h ris tm a s season. (In th o u san d s of dollars) (C o m p iled M a y 12, a n d released for publication M a y 13) A L L 30 C E N T E R S ................... *6,742,845 10 L A R G E S T C E N T E R S : A k ro n ..................................O hio 229,767 113,545 C a n to n ................................ O hio C in c in n a ti.......................... O hio 870,034 C le v e la n d .......................... O hio 1,731,448 523,277 C o lu m b u s .......................... O hio D a y to n ............................... O hio 224,416 T o le d o ................................ O hio 359,473 Y o u n g sto w n ......................O hio 149,661 E r i e .................................. P enna. 86,161 P itts b u r g h ......................P enna. 1,837,052 T o ta l consum er in s ta lm e n t c re d it P erso n al in s ta lm e n t ca sh loans R e p a ir a n d m o d e rn izatio n lo an s D ire c t r e ta il in s ta lm e n t loans (a) A u to m o b ile (b ) O th e r R e ta il in s ta lm e n t paper purchased (a) A u to m o b ile fb) O th e r Indexes of Department Store Sales and Stocks Bank Debits*— April 1948 A pril 1948 ' N ew L oans M ad e C o m p a red W ith M o. Ago Y r. Ago T y p e of C re d it A d ju s te d for S easo n al V ariatio n A pril M a rc h A pril 1948 1948 1947 SALES: A kron (6 )........... C an to n (5)......... C in c in n ati ( 8 )... C le v ela n d (10).. C o lu m b u s (6 )... E rie (3 )............ P itts b u r g h (8) S pringfield (3). T o led o ( 6 ) ......... W heeling (6 )... Y oungstow n (3). D is tr ic t (97)___ STO CKS: D is tr ic t.............. r —R ev ise d . 274 375 315 244 355 318 279 295 277 243 351 295 286 293 373 316 269 320r 315 279 276 273 272 309 270 298 W ith o u t Seasonal A d ju stm e n t A pril M a rc h A p ril 1948 1948 1947 287 340 302 226 318r 277 253 288 245 239 307 272 271 345 289 261 316 308 265 274 274 219 330 280 278 336 313 258 323r 293 273 276 268 264 309 284 290 320 284 246 293r 274 248 277 247 225 301 266 246 295 287 253 W hen co m p ared w ith a y e a r ago, th e A p ril to t a l of $6,743,000,000 w as up 11 percent. T h is ad v a n ce w as so m e w h a t s m aller th a n th e y ea r-to -y ear increases re p o rted in preceding m o n th s, h o w ev er, for in th e f irs t q u a r te r of th e y e a r th e a v e r age gain o v er year-ago figures ap p ro x im ated 15 percent. T E N L A R G E ST C ITIES In A p ril th e la rg e c itie s experienced a s h arp er dro p from th e M a rc h le v el th a n d id th e s m a lle r c e n t erg, a n d in y e a r-to -y e a r com parisons th e gain rep o rted b y th e large c itie s w as n arro w er th a n t h a t reco rd e d in th e sm a lle r c e n ters. T h is w as th e firs t tim e in fiv e m o n th s t h a t th e la rg e c itie s h a v e lag g ed b eh in d th e sm a lle r ce n ters in p ercen tag e ad v a n ce o v er th e to ta ls of a y e a r ago. Akron and Canton w ere th e only la rg e citie s to re p o rt a h ig h e r d e b it figure in A p ril th a n in M a rc h . Canton rep o rted th e la r g e s t gain o v er y ear-ago to ta ls w ith an ad v a n c e of a lm o s t 14 p erce n t. O th e r citie s w h ich surpassed th e av e ra g e y e a r to -y e a r a d v a n c e of 10 p erce n t for th e la rg e citie s w ere Cincinnati, Cleveland, P itts burgh and Erie. TW EN TY SMALLER C E N T E R S In April six of th e s * ia lle r ce n te rs experienced a y ea r-to -y ear gain of b e tte r th a n 20 percent. T h e six in c lu d ed O il City, M iddletown, Ham ilton, Butler, Mansfield and Lorain. N ew a ll-tim e m o n th ly h ig h s w ere s e t in Butler an d Meadville, w h ile O il City w as th e on ly rs p o rtin g ce n te r to experience a new h ig h for a th re e -m o r.th p eriod. CLEVELAND TOLEDO AKRON • CANTON • pA> •lYOUNGSTOl I (1 * /PITTSBURGH DAYTON # COLUMBUS f ^H EELIN G Fourth Federal ReserveDistrict ■ M A IN OFFICE ★ BRANCH OFFICES
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