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Busin F inance, Industry, Agriculture, and Trade eview Fourth Federal Reserve District Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Vol. 2 7 _______________________Cleveland, Ohio, June 30, 1945____________________________No. 6 WARTIME INVESTMENT POLICIES The evolution of member banks’ investment policies during six years of war is characterized by three rather clearly defined phases. The first phase covers the interval prior to this country’s entry into war. The second interval extends from Pearl Harbor to the middle of 1943— an eighteen-month period in which a wide variety of new Treasury obligations became available to commercial banks in connection with the financial requirements of war. The third phase covers the period from mid-1943 to date, during which the distinguishing feature was the imposition of sharp limitations upon the extent to which commercial banks could subscribe on their own behalf for new G overn ment securities. During the first period the inflow of foreign funds, which had been quite pronounced for several years, reached unprecedented proportions. The influx of funds in the form of additions to the nation’s monetary gold stocks generated an equivalent volume of deposits and reserves of member banks. New York C ity banks, generally, were among the first to feel the effects of this international movement of capital. But in the course of time, as such funds were invested or dis bursed in payment for American products such as munitions and food, a considerable portion o f those deposits gravitated to the interior. In the fourth district, member bank deposits increased approxi m ately 34 percent during the th irty months prior to Pearl Harbor. Small banks as a group gained deposits — and reserves— as rapidly as large banks. This expansion of reserves was especially significant in th at it was superimposed on an already unpre cedented level o f deposits, caused by previous gold imports and by bank credit expansion in the wake of deficit financing. As a result of this climactic in crement, excess reserves of all member banks stood between 36 billion and $7 billion during much of 1940 and early 1941. Excess reserves of fourth district member banks rose above 3500 million in November 1940, and remained in that area until after mid-1941. As an accompaniment of growing industrial and commercial activity, there was some expansion in the volume o f outstanding loans, particularly among the large metropolitan banks. Total loans of reserve city banks in the fourth district rose by about one-third, and of country banks by one-fourth. However in terms of dollars this increase of 3325 million in loans fell far short of the 31 >225 million concurrent expansion of deposits. Under the circumstances of rather rapidly rising deposits, accompanied by only a moderate expansion in loans, the problem of idle funds and their disposi tion assumed increased significance. The accompany ing charts provide a comparison o f investment policies of three groups of fourth district member banks, classified chiefly on the basis of size. O f the eight largest banks, two are located in Cin cinnati, three in Cleveland, two in Pittsburgh, and one in Toledo. In total resources, these eight range from around 3225 million to approximately 31 billion, representing 40 percent of the total resources of all fourth district member banks. The second group consists o f the 33 remaining weekly reporting member banks, most of which belong to the 350-3150 million size class. The resources of this group constitute about 25 percent of the district total. 2 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW The third section is composed o f all other member banks, not reporting on a weekly basis. The vast m ajority o f these banks fall within the 31 -310 million range. These 670-odd banks averaged just under 35 million each in total assets at the end of 1944. In the aggregate resources, this group represents the re maining 35 percent of the district. First Phase It is notable that, notwithstanding the huge surplus of available funds, member banks made virtu ally no net additions to their portfolios of U. S. Government securities during the first 18 months of the European W ar. This reluctance, apparent in all three groups of banks, was perhaps more attributable to a relative paucity of investment outlets than to a deliberate policy of liquidity. The yield on Treasury bills held consistently near zero and certificates o f indebtedness had not yet made their appearance in the Government’s financial pro gram. The aggregate volume of new Treasury offer ings o f marketable securities, chiefly long-term bonds, did not rise to new high levels until 1941 when a record peacetime borrowing program developed in connection with the rearmament effort. However, over 70 percent of those new Treasury issues offered during 1940-41 were of the long-term type, with maturities in excess of ten years. There were only two Treasury offerings for cash during 1940— one of 14-16 year 2 ^ ’s in Ju ly of which only 3630 million were issued and 3530 million fiveyear % percent notes in December. During 1941 there was only one note offering— a small one in January. In February, weekly bill offerings were utilized to raise 3300 million of new money. During the remainder o f the year, some 34 billion of long-term 2’s and 2 ^ ’s were issued for cash as rearmament expenditures mounted. Holdings of T reasury obligations by each o f the three groups of banks did not exceed the 1936-37 peak until near the middle o f 1941. Outside the eight largest banks, which added to their note portfolios, the increase during 1941 was confined almost entirely to bonds, of which some were long-term offerings ac quired directly from the Treasury, and some were bonds with shorter maturities purchased from other investors. It is quite apparent that during this early wartime period, bank investment policies were con ditioned by the scant supply of new offerings con sidered suitable and attractive for commercial bank investment. A t the time o f Pearl Harbor, bond hold ings represented from 75 to 85 percent of all direct Treasury obligations held by fourth district member banks. Bill holdings were of a nominal amount — only three of the eight large banks held bills. Treasury notes also occupied a relatively unimportant position in investment lists. Second Phase The second phase of wartime investment policies was ushered in by this country’s entry into active participation in the con flict and is indicated by the crosshatched portion of each chart. As a consequence of greatly increased financial requirements, Treasury offerings for cash during 1942 and the first half of 1943 amounted to a record-breaking 357 billion o f marketable issues, and consisted of a wide assortment of bills, certificates, notes, and bonds. Some o f those securities were tailored prim arily for commercial bank investment, and with the exception of the two long-term 2 % percent “T ap” issues, all were eligible for ownership by member banks without restriction. Notwithstanding the fact that reserve requirements had ju st been increased (November 1, 1941) by about one-seventh, member banks o f this district embarked upon an aggressive investment pro gram. This positive attitude developed in response to a combination of considerations. Short-term rates were moving toward higher levels (and lower prices) and on April 30, 1942, it was an nounced th at the reserve banks had established a percent buying rate on Treasury bills. Thenceforth bills could be acquired at that rate without risk of loss. In August a further incentive was provided by the adoption of the repurchase option technique which in conjunction with the % percent buying rate virtu ally endowed Treasury bills with the quality of reserve funds. Thereafter banks could go into and out of bills with absolute im punity, and could use bills as a means o f adjusting their reserve position daily, or at less frequent intervals. Later, in October 1942, the T reasury made it known that the yield on marketable offerings during the war would be stabilized in accordance with a “pattern o f rates” beginning with ^ percent for 91-day bills and extending to 2 percent on long-term bonds. This action gradually evoked a considerable degree of THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 3 billion of additional Treasury bills during the past two years, and the very limited subscriptions per mitted under a time deposit formula, were the only avenues whereby commercial banks have had direct access to new Treasury issues since the middle of 1943. It is significant that the one type of security which was most readily available, namely, Treasury bills (especially after the fixed-price tender feature was instituted in M ay 1943), proved to be the least at tractive Government security among fourth district member banks, particularly the largest institutions. A partial explanation of the actual divestment o f bills is to be found in the continued, although irregu lar, rise in reserve requirements which many banks met by selling Treasury bills to the reserve banks with the repurchase option privilege. However, as funds subsequently became available, some o f the excess reserves were diverted to the acquisition of longer securities, while some optioned bills were per mitted to run off. Possibly another factor of some minor consequence is to be found in the slowing down in the rate o f deposit growth in the largest banks; but that development seemingly did not impede the acquisition of other Treasury issues by the same institutions. The continued steep rise in bonds, notes, and certificates during the past two years slightly over states the actual holdings o f public debt, for it was during this interval th at most o f the remaining guaranteed issues were refunded into direct Treasury obligations. However, the magnitudes involved were too small to make an appreciable change in the overall position. Even after adjustment for this factor, acquisitions o f certificates of indebtedness and notes by the eight largest banks had continued at a virtu ally unchanged rate since the time of Pearl Harbor. In the case o f the two groups of lesser size, the rate of acquisition has actually been accelerated, most notice ably with respect to the smallest, or non-weeklyreporting banks, whose deposit growth broke all previous records in the past two years. On the basis o f latest available data, bond holdings of the three groups of fourth district member banks are now three, four, and six times, respectively, their 1939 portfolio. Unquestionably these very purchases created an equivalent volume o f deposits somewhere in the banking system and thus accentuated the difficulty o f all banks in the aggregate in achieving a The third phase in wartime investment full investment policy. However, the knowledge th at policy covers the period from the middle of the deposit expansion since 1941 was largely self 1943 to the present time. Two m ajor char generated was, and still is, an irrelevant abstraction acteristics differentiate this most recent interval from to any one bank confronted with a practical and per the two preceding stages. One is the unabated growth sistent investm ent problem in the form o f idle funds. o f holdings o f bonds, notes, and certificates, despite the virtu al exclusion o f commercial banks from direct During the first interval under review, participation in war loan offerings, beginning with the idle funds were the largest on record, Third W ar Loan. The other feature is the shift of while the supply o f new Treasury issues was com emphasis from short to longer-term obligations. paratively small. Banks looked askance at the outstanding issues because o f the “low” yields at A $ 2.7 billion note offering in Ju ly 1943, open to which such securities were available. As a result, all investors including commercial banks, elicited there was very little increase in the portfolios o f subscriptions o f nearly 320 billion. And in October, Treasury obligations of fourth district member banks shortly after the Third Loan, a special offering of during the early years o f the war. 33.2 billion o f certificates and eight to ten year two percent bonds was made to commercial banks. These i During the second phase, there was an abundance two offerings in addition to the issuance o f some 35.2 and variety o f m arket issues. Fourth district member confidence on the part of institutions of deposit that the facilities of the reserve banks would be ample to provide a high degree of stability in the rate structure. In the same month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, along with all other reserve banks, insti tuted a preferential rediscount rate of ^ percent on all advances secured by marketable Government obligations callable or maturing within one year. M oreover, in April 1943, just prior to the Second W ar Loan, war loan deposits were statutorily exempted from reserves requirements and also from Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation premium payments. Furthermore, on M ay 12, the Treasury initiated a plan under which any bank could tender a bid of % percent for bills up to 3100,000 with the assurance th at the subscription would be allotted in full. As a consequence of this series of both real and psycholog ical inducements, all three groups of banks acquired substantial quantities o f every type o f Treasury obligation. During the 18-month period, there were five major offerings o f less-than-ten-year bonds, ten sizable offerings o f notes and certificates of indebtedness, and an increase of nearly 310 billion in Treasury bills. Thus, although longer-term and higher-yielding securi ties were available in virtu ally unlimited quantities (with regard to each respective bank), the amount of low-yielding bills acquired was greater in proportion to previous holdings than the acquisition of longer obligations. By m id-1943, these short securities com prised no less than 10 percent of the direct-Government portfolio of the 670 smaller banks, and 15 percent in the case of the largest banks. A t the close o f this second phase, the eight largest and 33 other weekly reporting banks had purchased a volume o f securities sufficiently large to reduce their ratio of cash assets to total assets to around 24-27 percent, or the lowest since the beginning o f the war, and in contrast to nearly 40 percent at the end of 1940. On the other hand, country member banks were still more liquid than in 1939, and held a greater per centage o f assets in the form o f cash than did the reserve city banks. The small banks whose need for liquidity historically has been less pronounced were, by m id-1943, the furthest removed from a condition of full investment. Third Phase Summary 4 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW banks displayed a noticeable preference for the short end o f the market although toward the end of the period confidence in the stability of the rate structure became increasingly evident. The third phase— not necessarily the last—in a sense was a repetition of the first in that the supply of suitable and attractive issues was again sharply restricted. However, there the similarity ends. The limitation o f supply in the current phase has been deliberate, pursuant to w hat was believed to be a sound anti-inflationary policy. In this new period of artificial scarcity, fourth district member banks turned to outstanding issues and to nonbank investors for a continual supply o f intermediate and longer-term securities, at prices which betokened an exceptional degree o f confidence in the future trend of interest rates and bond prices. Perhaps most significant is the fact th at many of the Treasury obligations purchased by fourth district member banks in the past year or two involved the payment o f premiums of varying and sometimes sub stantial amounts, whereas Government securities obtained during the fir^t &nd second phases were purchased, presumably for the most part, at the issue price o f par. SEVENTH WAR LOAN On June 20, or ten days before the end of the D rive, purchases o f Seventh W ar Loan securities reached and exceeded the goal of $1,037 million estab lished for the fourth district. Preliminary reports indicate th at subsequent subscriptions pushed the final figure to more than $1,700 million, as against the previous record of $1,560 million attained in the Fifth Drive. There was also considerable variation from earlier campaigns with respect to investor re sponse to the eight respective issues offered in the Seventh Loan. On the basis of still incomplete data, the only issues to show no noticeable deviations from precedent are the Series F and G Savings Bonds, whose subscriptions usually have represented only a small part o f the total, and Series C Savings (Tax) Notes which appear to have been equally as popular as heretofore. It is estimated that, as in the past, approximately 20 per cent o f the funds raised during the D rive in this district was represented by these tax anticipation notes. The difference in the status o f Series E W ar Bonds during the Seventh D rive has been almost wholly the result o f an arb itrary decision. In terms of dollars, sales to date have not lagged behind previous efforts. A t the end o f June, sales had exceeded the record $267 million obtained in the Fourth Loan, and it appears th a t Series E sales will constitute the custo m ary one-sixth o f total funds raised. However, in terms o f the current quota o f $357 million, final results will be somewhat behind schedule. Absorption o f available funds in the hands of individuals, through the increased sale o f Series E bonds, has not conformed to the record high objective sought for the campaign. The percent certificates of indebtedness appear to have receded somewhat in popularity actually among investors with the exception of state and local governments whose investment policies are subject to rather inflexible statutory requirements and lim ita tions. Subscriptions entered for the short (53^-year) bonds which were offered only to individuals, but which are now eligible for commercial bank owner ship, comprised only some five percent of total funds obtained in this district, as against a considerably larger proportion represented by percent notes in two previous drives. The two remaining types of issues, namely, the long-term 2 ^ percent and the 2J^ percent bonds, appear to have been decidedly in the ascendancy in the fourth district. Subscriptions to the 14-17 year 2/4’s probably will be almost equal to sales o f the shorter 2’s (eight to ten years) offered in the previous drive, and which were immediately eligible for pur chase by commercial banks upon conclusion of the Sixth W ar Loan. A considerable proportion o f these new ’s was taken by building and loan, and sav ings and loan associations. 234 The “Tap” 2 ^ ’s which have been a regular feature in each o f the seven war loans set a new high mark for total subscriptions by a considerable margin. The final figure for subscriptions by individuals will be at least twice the volume attained in any o f the three preceding drives. In the Fifth and Sixth campaigns, sales of these long-term bonds accounted for only around 10 percent of total funds raised. In the cur rent campaign, the proportion will be close to 20 percent, notwithstanding the fact th at these new 2 ^ ’s can not be sold to (owned by) commercial banks during the next 17 years, as against a limitation of only 10 years in previous “T ap” 2 ^ ’s. This growing preference for longer-term ineligible securities, when coupled with the unchanged or slightly lessened demand for fully negotiable short term securities, seems to suggest that investors feel more assured than ever that the long-term rate will not rise in the next several years. In increasing num bers, both individual and corporate investors appear to prefer the higher rate available on long-term securities, on the premise that, should the need arise in the next few years, such securities could be liqui dated without fear o f loss, as against the alternative of receiving a lower income from notes and certificates, or the low income which would be realizable in com parable circumstances on discount securities such as the Series E, F, and G Savings Bonds. This growing assumption regarding the permanence of present long-term rates which featured commercial banks’ investment policies in recent months evidently has also become a factor in the nature o f subscriptions entered by noncommercial banking investors during the Seventh W ar Loan. New Member Banks The Farmers & Citizens Savings Bank Company Germantown, Ohio The Grafton Savings and Banking Company G rafton, Ohio THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 5 The Farm Mechanization Trend In Wartime War-stimulated demand for agricultural machinery has left a widespread impression that farm equipment production and sales have lagged during the war years. Throughout this period, the farm machinery situation has been described as “ acute” or “ stringent,” and calumny frequently has been heaped on the heads of those responsible for farm machinery output and rationing. The war period now has lasted long enough, however, to permit examination of what actually has taken place in this im portant field with somewhat greater perspective. In part, this may aid in a better understanding of the miraculous food production record during the w ar; in part, it may give some idea of farm machinery consumption possibilities in postwar years. Quotas Since its issuance on June 15, 1943, pro duction quotas on farm machinery have been established under Limitation Order L-257. This was the fourth order governing wartime farm equip ment production and, in general, it bases quotas on an average o f 80 percent of the steel tonnage used in the production o f each item classification during 1940 or 1941, whichever was larger. This order has been amended so that it is continuous for the duration of the w ar or the useful life of the order. It was under the authority o f this order that quota restrictions were removed from agricultural machinery production beginning on Ju ly 1, 1945. It was also under this order th at an easing of quota restrictions was granted for the month o f June whereby any producer who had no quota for an item or had completed his quota could make or ship additional quantities of th at item before Ju ly 1 without regard to his quota. Producers could use material in inventories or material procured w ith out the use of allotments or priorities assistance. Thus, by “ open ending” the Controlled Materials Plan, additional steel tonnage may be available to the industry beyond that already allotted for each of the third and fourth quarters o f 1945. It is on this basis, in conjunction with earlier upgradings to an AA-1 priority rating for malleable iron castings, as well as a hoped-for improvement in labor and component DRAFT POWER ON FARMS JANUARY I shortages, that some sources predict record production and sales of farm machinery and equipment for 1945. Mechanization Trend It seems to be a characteristic of wartime th at m any years of agri cultural tradition are abandoned because o f war pressure. During W orld W ar I, laborsaving machinery, especially mechanical power, ex panded in practically all regions o f the country, and the mechanization trend continued throughout most o f the 1920’s. As evidence of this tendency toward “ powering the farm ,” the Bureau of the Census estimates the value o f machinery equipment on farms in 1910 at #1,300,000,000 and in 1940 at £2,633,000,000. Confirmation o f the trend toward mechani cal power also is indicated in the chart entitled “ D raft Power on Farms.” Though the depression of the early 1930’s inter rupted the farm mechanization trend, the current war period has provided renewed acceleration. A ctually, a considerable increase in farm machinery production preceded this country’s entrance into war. Production in 1940 and 1941 was high and there was extensive inventory carryover into 1942. It is possible to see now how fortunate it was for this Nation to go into the war with farms fairly well supplied with equip ment. Unquestionably, the progressive change from animal to mechanical power has led to faster and more timely operations which have been particularly help ful in view of the farm labor shortage and the difficult planting seasons o f the past two years. Steel Consumption One measure of wartime farm machinery output, o f especial interest to the steel-producing fourth dis trict, lies in steel tonnage consumption for farm equipment production. An accurate appraisal of the industry’s net steel consumption is difficult because of component production by suppliers who are classified in other industrial fields. Therefore, one is limited to direct shipments from mills to known farm machinery and equipment manufacturers. On this basis, steel tonnage consumption during recent years for the industry is shown in Table I. Steel Product Shipments to Farm Equipment Manufacturers TABLE I (N et Tons) 193 9 630,147 194 0 919,502 194 1 1,153,626 194 2 570,046 194 3 712,851 194 4 1,095,635 SOURCE: Figures for 1939 compiled by Steel-, for 1940-44 by American Iron and Steel Institute. During 1944, the agricultural implement and ma chinery manufacturers received an estimated 1,095,000 tons of steel mill products. This compares favorably with the 713,000 and 570,000 net tons shipped them 6 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW during 1943 and 1942, respectively. W ith the excep tion of 1941, the steel shipped to farm equipment companies during 1944 was the largest tonnage re corded since 1937. Peak in steel shipments to this group occurred in 1929 when they totaled 2,100,000 tons. However, the dollar sales, at wholesale value, o f farm equipment for th at year amounted to only 3517,015,064, which reflects the heavier type of farm equipment of the period, as well as a large carryover into stocks. The great proportion of current agri cultural steel tonnage takes the form of bars, sheets and strips. The continuance o f L-257 during the third and fourth quarters of 1945 assures the agricultural ma chinery industry of a considerable steel tonnage, nearly 80 percent of which will be given through AA-2 rated orders. Third quarter steel allocations to the agricultural machinery industry amounted to 348,598 tons against industry requests for the quarter totaling 468,000 tons. For the fourth quarter, the allocations o f rated steel to the industry will probably remain the same as during the third quarter, whereas the industry requested 521,871 tons. If the open ending of L-257 results in the industry being able to obtain additional unrated steel, total steel consumption during 1945 for agricultural machinery production may approxi mate 1,300,000 tons. However, there is some question as to whether additional steel can offset the present shortage o f labor and certain scarce components. Over-all, the volume o f unrated steel orders is expanding rapidly, and in the fourth district it is estimated th at fully 50 percent of incoming business is of this character with sheets representing, by far, the larger portion. Generally speaking, no definite delivery promises can be made on this unvalidated tonnage because of priority of rated orders. A p parently, the order rush is influenced by desire of consumers to secure the best possible position when mills can place such orders on schedule. On their part, steel companies will do all in their power to fill these unrated requirements, especially for the larger consumers, because of the hope th at purchasing agents may not soon forget steel producers who supply them in this uncertain period. Because of its strategic importance, it is believed th at the agricultural ma chinery industry may be more than normally success ful in obtaining its share of available unrated steel tonnage. However, if the tendency to give supply preference to large consumers actually evolves during reconversion, pressure from smaller companies may require continuation of materials allocations for a longer period than the W ar Production Board now contemplates. Sales and Production A second measure of farm equipment production is contained in the record of sales. In fact, during the war period production and sales have been so closely correlated that the data are very similar. The Bureau of the Census has compiled sales data on farm machines and equipment, attachments, and parts from 1929 through 1944— excluding 1934, 1933 and 1932, for which years the annual survey was suspended. Sales of Farm Machines and Equipment, Attachments, and Parts: 1929-1944 TABLE II F arm M achines 1944.. 1943.. 1942.. 1941.. 1940.. 1939.. 1938.. 1 937.. 193 6 .. 1 935.. 1 931.. 1930_ 1929_ Total and E quipm ent 1,067,840,007 730,968,019 636,989,307 375,869,408 659,028,241 447,186,782 671,398,247 538,963,006 497,822,660 396,370,509 420,796,883 330,894,316 435,806,448 346,133,693 517,474,802 436,678,175 402,874,783 327,940,485 294,545,665 234,958,385 223,426,83 7 171,730,475 439,811,535 361,217,468 517,015,064 434,754,424 A ttach m en ts and Parts 336,871,988 261,119,899 211,841,459 132,435,241 101,452,151 89,902,567 89,672,755 80,796,627 74,934,298 59,587,280 51,696,362 78,594,067 82,260,640 The influence of the track-laying (crawler) type tractor on the total figures for farm machines and equipment must be noted in any analysis of sales during the w ar years. For many years, track-laying tractors have been used largely for industrial pur poses, and during the war m ilitary consumption has been added to industrial uses. By number, approxi m ately 10 percent of track-laying tractor sales have been for domestic farm use during 1943 and 1944. In terms of dollars, however, only 7 of 3261 million in 1944 and 3 of 3142 million in 1943 represented sales for domestic farm use. A similar problem occurs in wheel type and garden tractors where m ilitary, com mercial export, lend-lease, and UN RRA requirements take almost one-fourth o f the total production. How ever, this problem is not serious for agricultural ma chinery in the aggregate since only some ten percent of farm machinery production, aside from track-laying tractors, has gone to other than domestic farm users. The W ar Production Board has endeavored to segregate non-farm agricultural machinery from the industry totals for the years 1939-1944 in order to obtain net farm-use production. Its conclusions, by machinery groups and in total, are summarized in Table III, entitled “ Value of Farm M achinery and Equipment Production 1939-1944.” Based upon Bureau of the Census and W ar Pro duction Board compilations, adjusted to omit non-farm agricultural machinery production during the war years, total agricultural machinery sales for the years 1929-1944 are shown in the chart entitled, “ Sales of Agricultural M achinery and Equipment.” According to W ar Production Board data— and an evidence of the relative price stability o f the industry— an adjust ment of production values for the 1939-1944 period to 1943 prices would introduce com paratively small changes in the farm equipment production record for these years. In both aggregate values and numbers, the pro duction and sales o f farm equipment during 1944 approximately doubled 1943. T ractors; planting, seed ing and fertilizing m achinery; harvesting m achinery; haying equipment; harrows, rollers, stalk cutters and pulverizers; plows and listers; dairy and poultry equipment— all these were up from one-third to more 7 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW TABLE III VALUE OF FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION 1939-1944 Group Code No. 450 450 450 450 450 451 451 451 451 471 471 452 452 452 452 453 453 453 453 313 813 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10a 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Group Descriptions 1944 ,--------------------------- Census Reports------------------------- Census Yr. 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 Estimate Planting, Seeding and Fertilizing M achinery___ 312,618,659 317,092,384 323,325,835 310,085,579 Farm Plows and Listers_____________________ 12,511,422 18,875/905 22,284,453 16,272,774 Harrows, Rollers, Pulverizers & Stalk C u t te r s ... 9,127,129 11,671,068 16,711,187 11,953,358 Cultivators and Weeders____________________ 9,972,400 13,111,006 17,'428,343 15,117,482 Farm Sprayers, Dusters & Orchard Heaters____ 3,719,400 3,412,615 7,174,888 5,933,923 Harvesting M achinery______________________ 37,120,643 31,584,483 44,295,161 35,286,226 H aying M achinery__________________________ 10,105,151 14,653,336 25,316,421 20,556,427 Machines for Preparing Crops for M arket or U se .. 14,664,832 16,389,665 18,357,091 14,738,185 Farm Elevators and Blowers_________________ 1,668,544 1,865,118 2,448,464 1,809,446 Garden T ractors____________________________ 1,415,543 1,272,746 1,993,761 1,875,590 Wheel T ractors_____________________________110,856,746 136,762,330 182,895,701 102,557,627 Farm Wagons, Gears and Trucks (Not M otor). _ 3,435,164 4,877,476 6,505,328 3,525,820 Domestic W ater Systems (Farm T yp e)________ 11,755,457 17,193,468 20,079,979 14,992,542 Farm Pumps and W indm ills_________________ 5,455,457 5,859,893 6,310,826 5,436,500 5,500,000 6,165,000 5,705,000 4,548,661 Irrigation Equipment_______________________ D airy Farm Machines and Equipm ent. ________ 8,219,451 11,656,010 18,205,607 17,758,749 Barn and Barnyard Equipment_______________ 6,677,294 7,105,715 10,210,784 7,933,026 Farm Poultry Equipment____________________ 9,^98,320 7,441,019 11,395,995 10,106,244 Miscellaneous Farm Equipment______________ 9,662,288 12,708,073 14,763,000 17,941,673 Attachm ents_______________________________ 20,800,000 23,400,000 31,400,000 25,432,223 Repair P arts_______________________________ 49,843,297 59,443,836 76,032,159 114,887,763 3 8,648,819 323,400,000 8,369,527 18,800,000 6,701,778 15,200,000 9,211,412 20,700,000 5,767,201 9,600,000 27,869,636 48,800,000 11,915,040 28,300,000 9,638,022 14,200,000 2,601,210 3,400,000 1,287,728 1*700,000 63,784,‘l98 173,900,000 3,766,245 5,800,000 9,985,488 22,300,000 5,500,637 5,500,000 4,450,000 9,200,000 15,850,857 21,600,000 7,804,025 15,600,000 16,920,208 16,700,000 12,425,610 15,800,000 16,073,918 35,900,000 115,241,663 199,800,000 Total New Units, Attachments & Repair P a r t s ..354,927,197 422,541,147 562,840,023 467,748,818 363,813,222 705,600,000 Total New Units and Attachments Only_______305,083,900 363,097,311 486,807,864 352,861,055 248,571,559 505,800,000 Total New Units Only........... ..................................... .284,283,900 339,697,311 455,407,864 327,428,832 232,497,641 469,900,000 than double 1943 production. Labor-saving machin ery, such as small combines, corn pickers, windrow pickup bailers and tractor planters and cultivators have shown phenomenal gains in farm usage. Tractors, which have been in tremendous demand during the war years, have increased more rapidly than machinery for soil preparation and sowing. T hat this trend toward farm mechanization is still advancing is evi denced by the fact th at in the ten month period, Ju ly 1, 1944, to A pril 30, 1945, total agricultural ma chinery production amounted to #533 million. This compares with a similar period beginning Ju ly 1, 1943, in which the total production value for all groups of agricultural machinery amounted to $465 million. Although the 1944-1945 ten month production period ran behind quotas by 14 percent, this lag should be made up, perhaps exceeded, before the end o f the calendar year 1945. The conclusion seems to be inescapable— farm ma chinery and equipment have been supplied to farmers during the war years in very large amounts. The record production o f attachments and repair parts have also played an im portant part in supplying the Nation with food and feed for both the home and the war fronts. While it is true that food and feed pro duction during the w ar period has been hindered by a shortage of farm machinery and equipment, the lack has not been absolute, in terms of prewar standards, but is relative to the pressure for wartime production and the scarcity of farm labor. These latter forces, occurring simultaneously with record farm incomes, have culminated in a pyramided demand for farm machinery that a war economy could not hope to satisfy and, at the same time, maintain its primary responsibility to supply the armed services with super ior war power. Postwar Farm Mechanization Farm mechanization has made gains all over the country during the war. This is true even in the heavily mechanized middle western and western areas, but it especially is true o f the southeastern part o f the country where the rapid expansion in the use o f power machinery practically is creating an agricultural production revolution. The pressure for production during the war period has brought a new realization of the value o f farm mechanization and farmers see it as the means o f producing agricultural products on a cost comparison with the mass-produced goods of S A LES OF A G R IC U L TU R A L MACHINERY ANO EQUIPM EN T Mpniiiiini ! 1111111ii111 IIHHIIIlim u 11111111111 •29 30 '31 '3 5 '3 6 *37 '3 d *39 '4 0 *41 '4 2 #43 '4 4 • U «l«dM ittM k M B li u d r«p«lr p r t i . ? tkrowch 19*4 U t» r«pr«*«Bt u t f tr a - u « prodw otim u ocK pll* by • t r F roduotioa lo*j<4. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW industry. Perhaps the lesson of mechanization had been learned before the war, but the experience of the w ar has emphasized its value in view of advancing manpower and materials costs, plus actual manpower shortage. It may be well to remember, however, that as manpower becomes more plentiful once again, the marginal-cost conflict between mechanical and labor power m ay assert itself anew. non-existent for agricultural machinery producers, future production will depend on many factors, in cluding the level of industrial employment, the ex pansion o f export markets and the extent to which products of the farm will be utilized as raw materials in industrial processes. However, the over-all farm mechanization trend is likely to receive even greater impetus in the next few years. The greatest demand will be for basic ma chinery of a labor-saving character— tractors, com bines, trucks, and all kinds of tractor-operated farm equipment and tools. It is estimated that the demand for tractors alone may call for 200,000 to 300,000 units each year. This figure is arrived at by the replacement rate for the 2,000,000 tractors now on farms— estimated to require about 100,000 units annually — plus another 100,000-200,000 to replace the draft animal decline and to take care of the expanded use of tractors among old and new farm users. There also will be increased use of specialized machinery, includ ing sugar beet harvesters, hay choppers, basin-listers, fertilizer placement machinery, cotton pickers, etc. The soil conservation program, too, will require its quota of special equipment for digging ditches and making terraces in addition to increased use of standard equipment such as plows, harrows, drags and slip scrapers. New and improved designs for many types of agricultural equipment will appear in the next few years, and this will soon offset the wartime congeal ing of equipment design that has tended to curtail normal progressive machinery improvement. The Fourth Federal Reserve D istrict sometimes is called the sub-contracting district. In consequence, primary contract cancelations have, thus far, filtered down somewhat slowly to the diversified industry of the area. In fact, up to Ju ly 1 cutbacks were spotty throughout the fourth district and had been reflected only slightly in the level o f industrial operations and employment. In practically all areas where employ ment had decreased, examination indicated that the lower employment followed the trend of available manpower. The larger part of the drop during the past year was due to the armed services’ requirements, the return of students to schools and colleges, and a persistent reduction of marginal employees, including many women. From early Ju ly on, however, retrench ments in the war production program may be expected to be a more dominant factor in the employment pic ture. The consensus seems to be th at most o f the district still faces a tight labor market, and th at the difficult job adjustment period still lies in the future. This is confirmed by the number o f priority job open ings, total calls on job order books and the relatively small number of claims for unemployment compensa tion. However, the fourth district, like the rest o f the Nation, is on a touch-and-go basis during reconversion. In predicting postwar requirements for farm ma chinery, much is made of low dealer stocks and the unsatisfied demand as evidenced in requests placed by farmers with the W ar Food Administration. Other surveys indicate similar demands and the current financial position of farmers, in addition to unused credit possibilities, would seem to give them the pur chasing power to expand farm mechanization. “ In tention to buy” surveys, however, must be interpreted with caution, especially if they refer to the postwar period. Likewise, potential demand cannot be measured by formal farm machinery and equipment requests received by the W ar Food Administration, partly because of the pyramiding of requests by in dividual farmers with different dealers. Deferred demand alone could not be sufficient to maintain farm machinery sales for any extended length of time. Current income and prospects of profitable operation, considered in relation to alternative operating costs, are the prim ary long-term barometers o f machinery purchase. Since reconversion problems are nearly DISTRICT SUMMARY Steel Steel remains the bellwether of district industrial operations, and as long as it con tinues to operate at near-90 percent capacity levels, employment in the district is not in serious jeopardy. Present order books are so heavy that cutbacks have not been reflected in operating schedules— the operating rate decline during June being due to manpower, maintenance and fuel difficulties. Pressure of non-rated orders from the automobile industry, as well as from other im portant civilian goods fields, has been heavy and it is believed that deliveries will be forthcoming by the time the steel is needed. It has been reported that some companies are using priority ratings to stock materials which they m ay later use in civilian production, the simplest device being non cancelation of steel orders when contracts, under which the steel was allocated, were cut back. Other District Industries Bituminous coal production during M ay in the fourth district amounted to 19,379,000 tons. This brought the January 1-June 1, 1945, total to 90,805,000 tons, THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW compared with a national total of 250,150,000 tons from Jan u ary 1 through the week ending June 2, 1945. National tonnage for the comparable 1944 period was 272,357,000 tons, which indicates that 1945 produc tion is running behind 1944 by almost 10 percent. Demand for all sizes o f coal continues strong and re flects normal seasonal demands for lake tonnage coupled with unusually heavy domestic and war re quirements. The 1945 production record of the industry may require the tightening of distribution controls unless curtailed industrial activity results in decreased demand. M any industries of the district continue to reflect m ilitary requirements. Heavy duty tire needs still absorb the energies o f tire, carbon black and tire cord producers. Expanded capacity, however, may release most of the pressure on the tire needs of some classes of consumers by the end of 1945. Textile manufac turers, both for cotton and worsteds, are still largely occupied with arm y requirements, with the civilian economy to feel the pinch in the next few quarters. Paper and paperboard continue in short supply» due to enormous requirements for packaging m ilitary supplies. The peak, however, m ay have passed and civilian releases may become more abundant soon. Production in ceramics holds at high levels, limited chiefly by manpower rather than component shortages. M anufacturers o f many other civilian goods, includ ing shoes and clothing, report a larger volume of orders than can be filled under present manpower and materials conditions. Agricultural Prospects On a district basis — but under the handicaps o f late plantings and re plantings of crops— much progress has been made with the prospect that most of the acreage intended for crops has been planted. W eather con ditions during earlier months o f the year were so favorable to winter grain crops and pastures that prospects throughout the district are from good to excellent despite adverse M ay weather. In Ohio, winter wheat production for 1945 was estimated at 55 million bushels as of June 1, compared with an average production o f 41 million bushels for the years 1934-44. A t the same time, oats production was estimated at 48 million bushels as compared with the 1934-44 average o f 40 million bushels. The rainy weather th at prevailed during June flooded many of the fields in the district, as well as generally through out the corn belt, and is a rather distinct threat to the corn crop. A period of extremely dry weather could make a very unfavorable season for com production, which might adversely affect meat supplies in 1946. Largely because o f the good pasture conditions, fluid 9 milk production remains at record levels and is taxing manufacturing facilities to the limit. The Meat Situation Field reports indicate that the Ohio spring pig crop will be only 10 to 12 per cent less than last year, and this may provide some relief from the present tight meat situa tion by the last quarter of the year. In fact, the com bined spring and fall pig crop, now estimated at 87 million for 1945, is expected to exceed the 1944 total, although it falls about 8 million head below the Government’s goal. However, despite the promising hog situation, and the increased feeding of cattle, it is not likely that total civilian meat consumption per capita for 1945 will be above 130 pounds as com pared to 147 in 1944. There has been some fear that one consequence of the shortage of meat would be depletion o f poultry flocks, partly through the black markets, with the result that egg production— now running 7 percent below the first six months of 1944— in the late summer and fall will be endangered. Although there had been a heavy reduction o f layers in the first three months of the year, in the period April 1 to June 1 the re duction was less than in the comparable period of 1944. Ohio farmers decreased their flocks for the first six months of 1945 by practically the same number as in 1944, while the number of chicks and young chickens was slightly above 1944 holdings. Farm Income and Prices The value of farm marketings in fourth district States during the first five months of 1945 was slightly lower than for the comparable 1944 period, largely due to the reduced marketing of livestock and live stock products. In terms of the M ay 1910-1914 aver age price index o f 100, Ohio farm prices were 203 in M ay 1945. Prices paid by United States’ farmers had risen to 173 for M ay 1945 as compared with the M ay 1910-14 average of 100. The present high level of demand for farm products is likely to be maintained during the remainder of 1945, and may result in a new record for cash farm income. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES As shown on the accompanying chart, sales at fourth district department stores this month evi denced considerable improvement over both the pre vious month and June 1944. Based on reports re ceived from fourth district stores for the first two weeks of June, sales were up 18 percent from last year and were the largest on record for that period. This is in sharp contrast to the experiencefor April and M ay, when dollar volume was close to the 1944 level. M ay 10 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW was the first month in some time for which stores reported a year-to-year decline in their total dollar sales. This decrease resulted partly from unfavorable weather conditions and also from the announcement o f V-E Day, with the attendant uncertainty regarding cutbacks in war production and lay-offs. However, so far, the cutbacks in this district have been relatively small and have had only a slight affect on total em ployment and payrolls. A ny reduction in fourth district retail sales th at may have occurred because o f the end of the European phase o f the war probably resulted more from the fear o f possible lay-offs in the future rather than from actual unemployment. There has been little reduction in the purchasing power of consumers, and they are continuing to buy a large volume o f department store merchandise, as indicated by the gains for the first part of June. W eather has been an im portant factor influencing retail business recently. This month conditions were quite seasonal, and retailers reported considerable a ctivity in their departments featuring summer merchandise. However, during M ay there was much cool weather, which reduced somewhat the demand for summer goods, but, at the same time, prompted many women to buy such items as suits and coats. Sales in this category were 47 percent larger this M ay than last. In contrast, sales o f sportswear, blouses, and skirts were up only two percent, and the retail dress business dropped off five percent from 1944. Men’s and boys’ wear sales were down twelve percent, and housefurnishings departments, in the aggregate, sold three percent less merchandise during M ay this year than in the same month o f 1944. Total piece goods sales were slightly smaller, as a result of the 16 percent decline in sales of cotton yardage. Stores are continuing to experience considerable difficulty in securing cotton wash goods, and there is a rapid turn over of this merchandise. Stocks in this department at the end o f last month were down 21 percent from M ay 31,1944. Although total sales last month were slightly smaller than in M ay a year ago, stores in certain cities o f the district— such as Akron, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Youngstown— experienced year-to-year gains. How ever, these were offset by declines in other localities. Canton merchants reported the sharpest drop in sales — nine percent. During the first five months of this year, total dollar volume at the 97 reporting stores o f the fourth district was up 11 percent from the cor responding period o f 1944. Department store inventories continued their up ward trend, and, at the end o f M ay, were up 12 percent from a year ago. From Jan u ary 1 to M ay 31, stores purchased 33 percent more goods than they sold. 11 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Fourth District Business Statistics Fourth District Business Indexes (0 0 0 o m itte d ) (1 9 3 5 -3 9 -1 0 0 ) Bank D ebits (2 4 c itie s)......................................... Com m ercial Failures (N u m b er)......................... ” (L ia b ilitie s)........................ Sales— Life Insurance (O. and P a .) .................. ” — D epartm ent Stores (9 7 firm s)............... ” — C hain Drugs (5 firm s)*........................... ” — C hain G roceries (4 firm s)....................... Building C o n tracts (T o ta l).................................. ” (R e sid e n tia l)....................... Production— C oal (O., W . Pa., E. K y .) ......... — C em ent (O., W . Pa., E. K y .)* * — Elec. Power (O., Pa., K y .) * * .. . ” — P etroleum (O., Pa., K y .)* * , . . . ” — Sh o es.................................................. M ay 1945 227 6 6 13 1 17 7 a 17 1 87 59 155 69 192 96 86 M ay 1944 200 14 9 1 12 179 155 161 60 48 171 53 187 93 87 M ay 1943 182 24 20 98 156 158 158 108 130 151 1 15 179 99 82 M a y M ax 1 9 4 2 19 4 1 140 160 97 79 36 35 103 74 14 0 138 122 136 129 153 26 0 254 326 172 138 153 143 137 159 135 102 94 106 105 * Per ind ivid u al un it operated. ** A pril. a N ot av ailab le. Wholesale and Retail Trade (1945 compared with 1944) P ercentage Increase or Decrease SA LE SSA L E S ST O C K S M ay first 5 M ay 1945 m onths 1945 D E P A R T M E N T ST O R E S (97) A k ro n ............................................................................. ........ + 2 C a n t o n .................................................................................. — 9 C in c in n a ti............................................................................. + 2 C le v e la n d ...............................................................................— 3 C o lum bus...............................................................................+ 3 E rie ................................................................................. .........- 0 P ittsb u rg h .................................................................... .........— 2 Sp rin g field.................................................................... .........— 1 T o led o .....................................................................................- 1 W h eelin g ....................................................................... .........+ 4 Y o u n g sto w n ................................................................. .........+ 7 O ther C itie s ................................................................. .........— 8 D istric t.......................................................................... .........— 1 + 13 + 8 + 14 + 10 + 16 + 7 + 10 + 7 + 12 + 17 + 17 + 6 + 11 + 9 a + 13 + 8 + 19 — 4 + 13 a + 7 + 7 a + 15 + 12 W E A R IN G A P P A R E L (16) C a n to n ....................................................................................— 2 C in c in n a ti............................................................................. — 6 C le v e la n d .............................................................................. — 9 P itts b u rg h .................................................................... ........ + 1 O ther C itie s ................................................................. .........- 0 D is tric t...................................................................................— 4 + 10 + 11 + 11 + 7 + 9 + 10 + 2 a + 14 + 13 + 27 + 13 F U R N IT U R E (73) C a n to n ................................................................................... —1 0 C in c in n a ti............................................................................. - 0 C le v e la n d ...............................................................................—13 C o lum bus...............................................................................— 8 D a y to n .......................................................................... .........—1 2 P ittsb u rg h .................................................................... .........—13 A lleg h eny C o u n ty ..................................................... .........—1 0 T o le d o .................................................................................... —18 O th er C itie s ................................................................. .........— 8 D istric t.......................................................................... .........- 1 0 + 2 + 13 + 1 — 5 + 1 + 3 + 9 — 1 + 3 + 3 + 13 + 14 + 30 — 4 a a a + 1 + 7 + 18 C H A IN S T O R E S * G roceries— D istrict ( 4 ) ............................................ .........+ 1 0 + 11 W H O L E SA L E T R A D E * * A u to m o tiv e Supplies ( 5 ) ......................................... ........ + 1 3 Beer ( 6 ) ......................................................................... .........—11 Clothing and Furnishings ( 4 ) .........................................+ 1 7 C onfectionery ( 5 ) ................................................................+ 3 Drugs and D rug Sundries ( 4 ) ........................................ + 8 D ry Goods (5 )......................................................................— 9 E lectrical Goods (6) ............................................... .........+ 1 8 Fresh F ruits and Vegetables ( 1 1 ) ........................ .........+ 1 9 F urniture and House Furnishings (3 ) ...................... — 1 G ro c ery G rou p ( 4 1 ) .................................................. ........ + 9 T otal H ardw are G roup ( 2 2 ) .................................. ........ + 9 G eneral H ardw are ( 6 ) .................................................. + 1 4 In d u strial Supplies ( 8 ) ................................................. — 2 Plum bing and H eating Supplies ( 8 ) ............... ........ + 1 8 Je w e lry ( 9 ) ................................................................... ........ + 1 2 L um ber and Building M aterials ( 4 ) .............................+ 1 8 M achinery, Equip. & Sup. (E xcept E lect.) (5) + 20 Paints and V arnishes ( 4 ) ................................................. — 7 Paper and its P roducts ( 4 ) ............................................. + 1 6 Tobacco and Its P roducts ( 1 4 ) ..................................... — 8 M iscellaneous ( 1 5 ) ............................................................. —13 D istrict— A ll W holesale T rad e ( 1 7 4 ) ...........................+ 4 + 25 — 6 a + 18 a a + 6 + 16 a + 4 + 8 a — 3 + 10 + 1 + 2 + 18 a + 10 — 5 — 6 + 3 a b c A pril, Ja n u a ry -A p ril. C onfidential. Debits to Individual Accounts (Thousands of Dollars) C a n t o n ............................ C i n c i n n a t i ..................... C ovington-N ew port G r e e n s b u r g .................. H o m e s t e a d ................... M i d d l e t o w n ................. P i t t s b u r g h .................... P o r t s m o u t h ................. S p r i n g f i e l d .................... S t e u b e n v i l l e ................ Y o u n g s t o w n ................ + 10 a a + 28 a —34 + 11 + 15 a —12 + 9 + 2 + 22 + 51 + 23 — 4 + 11 a a a —18 —10 * Per in d ivid u al u nit operated. ♦♦Wholesale data compiled by U. S. D ep artm en t o f Com m erce, Bureau o f the Census, a N ot av ailab le. Figures in parentheses indicate num ber o f firms reporting sales. F ou rth D istrict Unless M ay % change J a n .-M a y % change O therw ise Specified 1945 from 1^44 1945 from 1944 Bank Debits— 24 c itie s................... ?5 0 3 4 ,0 0 0 + 13 2 3 ,6 4 4 ,0 0 0 + 4 Savin gs Deposits— end o f m onth: 39 banks O. and W . P a...............J51.25 8,522 + 24 Life Insurance Sales: Ohio and Pa.................................... ? 1 10 .2 8 4 + 17 5 1 7 ,2 7 0 + 11 R etail Sales: Dept. Stores— 97 firm s............... $ 4 3 ,3 3 8 - 1 2 1 0 ,2 0 1 + 11 1,9 5 8 — 4 10 ,3 9 9 + 10 W earing A p p a rel— 16 firm s___ $ F u rn itu re— 73 firm s..................... $ 3,165 -10 13,02 8 + 3 Building C o n tracts— T o ta l............ $ 2 1 ,3 1 2 + 46 8 1 ,6 4 7 + 29 — R e sid e n tia l. 3 4 ,5 32 + 22 1 2 ,9 8 2 -2 2 Com m ercial F ailures— L iab ilities......................................... $ 88 -3 5 951 + 27 N u m b er............................................ 4 —56 25 —32 Pr duction: Pig Iron— U. S .............. Net tons 5 ,0 1 6 - 6 2 4 ,537 - 7 7,4 77 — 3 36 ,338 — 4 Steel Ingot— U. S.........Net tons Bitum inous C oal— 0 . , W . Pa., E. K y ...N e t tons 19 ,3 7 9 -10 90 ,805 - 9 C em ent— 0 . , W . Pa., W . V a ..........Bbls. 56 9a + 30 1,8 6 2 b + 7 E lectric Power— O., Pa., K y ...T h o u s . K .W .H . 2 ,9 28a + 3 1 2 ,1 2 9 b + 1 Petroleum — O., Pa., K y ...................... Bbls. 2 ,1 1 3 a + 3 8 ,1 7 1 b - 4 Sh o es....................................... Pairs c — 2 c — 5 Bitum inous Coal Sh ipm ents: Lake Erie p o rts ............ Net tons 6 ,5 4 4 — 7 1 1,3 8 3 —16 M ay % change J a n .- M a y 1945 fro m 19 4 4 1945 22 2,483 + 2 6 .1 1 ,0 1 1 ,8 8 8 2 2 ,10 3 + 3 6 .5 1 0 8 ,1 9 8 87,782 + 1 8 .5 4 1 7 ,6 5 0 65 4,062 + 1 8 .8 3 ,1 7 7 ,5 9 8 1 ,4 2 3 ,7 4 1 + 10.5 6,5 6 5 ,4 4 2 37 3,261 + 2 7 .0 1 ,6 3 9 ,9 0 6 27 ,261 + 2 0 .8 12 5 ,7 9 1 158,7 57 + 1 5 .8 73 8,382 64,325 + 7.5 29 0,398 6 ,0 15 - 1.3 29 ,469 1 3 ,0 8 9 + 1 1 .3 60 ,433 24,843 + 3 0 .7 1 1 1 ,3 7 9 5,5 2 8 + 1 6 .3 25,083 3 5 ,15 1 + 3 7 .3 27 9,504 29,003 + 1 1 .1 14 8 ,2 8 2 9 ,3 0 6 + 1 3 .7 4 3 ,8 9 0 24 ,942 + 2 6 .6 1 1 4 ,4 1 8 2 2 ,8 3 6 + 2 0 .5 99 ,386 16,543 + 16.9 83 ,17 4 1,3 9 4 ,8 8 7 + 9.5 6 ,6 0 4 ,15 6 1 2,54 2 + 1 1 .8 58 ,437 + 1 2 .1 17,943 82 ,961 33 ,10 1 + 8.6 1 6 1,6 5 8 17,02 2 + 2 7 .3 7 8 ,15 7 24 9,924 1,20 0 ,4 9 6 + 1.2 25,285 + 7.5 1 2 3 ,5 14 4 8 ,8 1 8 + 18.7 210 ,5 3 2 9 4 ,8 9 6 + 1 7 .3 4 3 0 ,4 9 0 1 4 ,1 5 1 + 1 7 .3 6 5 ,682 5 ,1 2 9 ,6 0 0 + 1 3 .4 2 4 ,0 8 6 ,3 5 4 J a n .- M a y % change fr om 1 9 4 4 1944 8 8 5 ,3 4 9 + 14.3 8 4 ,770 + 2 7 .6 3 8 5,500 + 8.3 2 ,9 4 0 ,5 8 0 + 8.1 6,2 72,0 91 + 4.7 1,58 5 ,3 4 5 + 3.4 1 19 ,4 2 7 + 5.3 7 1 9 ,4 1 6 + 2.6 3 1 3 ,1 1 4 - 7.3 30 ,238 - 2.5 6 0 ,0 4 1 + 0 .7 9 8 ,18 1 + 1 3 .4 23 ,784 + 5.5 2 0 6 ,3 9 0 + 3 5 .4 1 3 0 ,6 5 1 + 1 3 .5 4 3 ,17 2 + 1.7 9 8 ,5 1 2 + 16.1 9 9 ,8 6 1 - 0.5 74,992 + 1 0 .9 6,4 97,9 83 + 1.6 54 ,941 + 6.4 8 2 ,669 + 0 .4 -0 1 6 1.6 7 9 6 5 .9 8 6 + 1 8 .4 1,298 ,823 - 7.6 115 ,9 5 2 + 6.5 199,9 57 + 5.3 4 1 3 ,0 9 3 + 4.2 6 2 ,3 1 5 + 5.4 2 3 ,12 4 ,8 1 2 + 4.2 Indexes of Department Store Sales and Stocks D aily A verag e for 1 9 3 5 -1 9 3 9 = 1 0 0 W ith o u t A d ju sted for Seasonal A d ju stm e n t Seasonal V ariation M ay 1 945 SALE S: A kron ( 6 ) ..................... C anton ( 5 ) .................. C incinnati ( 9 ) ............ C leveland ( 1 0 ) ........... Colum bus ( 5 ) ............ Erie ( 3 ) ........................ P ittsburgh ( 8 ) ............ Springfield ( 3 ) ............ Toledo ( 6 ) ................... W heeling ( 6 ) .............. Youngstown ( 3 ) . . . . D is tr ic t ( 9 7 ) ............... ST O C K S: D is tr ic t ( 5 1 ) ............... A p r. 1945 M ay 19 4 4 M av 1945 A pr. 1945 M ay 1944 210 211 183 165 205 195 163 217 18 1 170 204 177 20 1 217 177 162 200 189 155 195 174 164 189 17 1 206 232 180 170 200 196 167 219 183 163 191 179 217 219 180 176 211 207 157 209 18 1 159 20 8 179 203 235 192 15 1 22 4 194 163 20 9 175 182 201 174 213 242 177 181 206 208 160 210 183 152 195 181 166 159 149 163 153 146
@FedFRASER