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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District D. C. WILLS, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Vol. 7 Cleveland, Ohio, June 1, 1925 General During the past several weeks, the business recession which developed dur ing March has been halted, at least for the time being. There have been contradictory movements, however, rather than any general trend, and conditions are spotty. Aside from the usual seasonal increase in activity, an improvement has occurred in some lines, particularly the automobile industry. Building has been running well ahead of last year; car loadings continue high; and the oil industry has been making headway. On the other hand, operations in the iron and steel industry have de clined from the high point of two months ago, although the decline during the latter part of May has been in considerable. The acute coal situation still continues. Wholesale prices of all commodities weakened noticeably during April. Comparing the situation with a year ago, production and consumption in general appear to be in closer re lation now than they were at that time. In the past few years, there have been instances of increased produc tion in anticipation of a demand which failed to ma terialize, with a consequent reduction in operations and a temporary depression. Manufacturers are now rea lizing that at the present time the old rule of forward buying has given way to the policy of purchasing for immediate needs only; and they are showing a dispo sition to restrict production to the point where the out put is just about keeping even with current demand. Financial Conditions On May 13, earning assets of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland totaled 99 millions, a decline of 22 millions from April 15, but an increase of 8 millions over a year ago. Holdings of bills discounted, government securities, and acceptances all show declines for the four-week period under review —bills discounted from 51 to 40 millions, government securities from 40 to 36 millions and acceptances from 29 to 22 millions. Compared with last year, bills dis counted and government securities show slight declines, while acceptances increased 12 millions. For the Federal Reserve System bills discounted rose from 395 millions on April 15 to 411 millions on May 6, but declined sharply to 339 millions on May 13. The latter figure is 72 millions under that of a year ago. Both acceptances and government securities show in No. 6 creases during the four weeks ending May 13; acceptances from 274 to 283 millions and government securities from 358 to 380 millions. Gold reserves show an increase from 2,844 millions on April 15 to 2,854 on May 13, but were nearly 300 millions below the same date last year. Loans and discounts of reporting member banks in the Fourth Federal Reserve District totaled 1,216 millions on May 6, a gain of 7 millions over April 8. During this period both demand and time deposits showed slight gains, the latter standing at 725 millions on May 6, a new high point for the district. For all reporting member banks in the country, total loans and discounts amounted to 13,185 millions on May 6 compared to 13,137 on April 8 and 12,075 a year ago. Loans secured by stocks and bonds, after declining during the last half of March and the first half of April, began to move upward again, with the result that on May 6 they stood at 4,876 mil lions, the highest point of the year and nearly a mil lion dollars greater than a year ago. Savings deposits of sixty-eight banks in the Fourth Federal Reserve District amounted to $828,958,741 on April 30, a decrease of 0.1 per cent from the preceding month, but an increase of 7.5 per cent over a year ago. Commercial failures in the Fourth Federal Reserve District numbered 165 during April, 1925, and 148 in April,. 1924, as reported by R. G. Dun & Company. Liabilities amounted to $2,604,395, as compared with $13,040,996 in April, 1924. For the United States, failures numbered 1,939 in April, 1925, as against 1,704 a year ago, and liabilities for April, 1925, amounted to $37,188,622, as compared with $48,904,452 a year ago. Iron and Steel Sentiment and buying in the iron and steel market, after having swung from high to low points, are assuming more rational proportions. Within a period of six months the market has passed through an interval of heavy buying with high expecta tions followed by one of contracted purchasing and de pressed sentiment. Neither attitude apparently has cor rectly reflected the underlying conditions of consump tion which have been and remain favorable and sound. The real fundamentals o f the situation seemingly have begun to assert themselves with the result that confi dence is showing signs of being restored and prepara tions for business are proceeding along prudent and more normal lines. 2 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS From an operating position of around 90 per cent of full capacity in March, a forced readjustment has brought works activities to a 70 to 75 per cent J>asis. This lat ter level apparently about represents the scope of present consumption, for the point of equilibrium of supply and demand seems near at hand. There is e# very reason to believe that consumption since January 1 has not been far from this same volume; while it has probably in creased in spots, there has been no sharp change ob served. Therefore, it would appear that a reasonably good volume of underlying demand has existed for sev eral months and is being sustained. The steel industry has been making its adjustments accordingly. Demands from the building industry especially and from the railroads have continued most conspicuous. The needs of the automotive industry have grown steadily since January. The farming communities, as evidenced by the implement situation, which is pronounced to be the best in five years, are supplying a greater pur chasing power. Miscellaneous manufacturing demands for steel are spotty. The heavy production of iron and steel for the first quarter, the largest for any similar period on record, to all indications has taken care of the margin o f over buying of steel done generally for the first quarter. During the first three months o f this year steel was made at the annual rate o f 48,800,000 tons of ingots and pig iron at 41,200,000 tons. At this rate the coun try was producing steel 11.9 per cent in excess of the largest full year in history and in pig iron, 2.7 per cent greater. In March steel ingot production reached its crest with an annual rate o f above 50,000,000 tons. In April this had fallen back to an annual rate of approx imately 43,000,000 tons. In pig iron, as compiled by IRON TRADE REVIEW, April production showed the first decline in nine months with a loss of 7.1 per cent over the peak of March. In April the country was mak ing pig iron at the rate of 38,200,000 tons per year as compared with a rate of 42,200,000 tons in March. Fur naces in blast at the end o f April had dropped to 221 as against a high point of 256 at the end o f February. Further curtailment in both iron and steel capacity is taking place 'this month, but the fluctuations in total production are nearing a balance. Revival of buying and o f interest in the market by consumers is now grow ing. Heavy shipments taken during the first three or four months have been well worked off or definitely assigned for use. Faith has been recovering and prices have been becoming more attractive. During the past month the decline in iron and steel prices has gone fur ther, amounting on the whole to approximately $1 to $2 per ton. IRON TRADE REVIEW composite of fourteen lead ing iron and steel products which stood at $39.43 as of April 15 was $38.21 the third week of May. The latter is the lowest point on record in almost three years or since August 2, 1922. Raw materials especially have been reflecting a greater willingness of buyers to fortify themselves against their REVIEW forward requirements at present prices. A pig iron buy ing movement, originating several weeks ago, has been gradually expanding with total sales in that period esti mated o f upward of 300,000 tons. Larger lots of scrap are being closed by some steel consumers, and dealers again are taking on tonnages in the expectation of a rise. Some furnace coke contracts have been closed for last half delivery. Iron and Steel Production PIG IRON (Iron Trade Review) (In thous. of tons) January........... February........ March............. April............. May................. une................. July.............. August............ September----October........... November----December.. . . Total____ •Revised. 1925 3,372 3,214 3,571 3,211 1924 3,015 3,074 3,465 3,226 2,620 2,023 1,783 1,883 2,054 2,462 2,515 2,956 31,076 STEEL INGOTS* (American Iron ££ (Steel Institute) (In thous. of tons) 1925 4.199 3,756 4.199 3,588 1924 3,650 3,826 4,207 3,348 2,640 2,066 1,878 2,553 2,828 3,125 3,121 3,569 36,811 Coal and Coke ^ ie situation in the union coal fields in this District continues to be de pressed. Reports indicate that a con siderable number of mines in these . fields have closed down, and two banks m the coal regions also closed their doors during the month. In previous numbers of the REVIEW, it has been pointed out that the main trouble with the bituminous coal industry has been the excess of productive capacity over demand, coupled with unequal wage scales. This is again brought out by the fact that daily average production showed an upward tendency during the three weeks ending May 9, even in the face of the strike « union fields. While production in Pennsylvania and Ohio declined during the month, that in West Virginia in creased. Furthermore, production in Pennsylvania and Ohio during April was no greater than last year and was far below the 1928 level, while production in the West Virginia mines, which are largely non-union, wa« noticeably greater than a year ago, and was almost up to the 1923 level. Although the condition of the industry is undoubtedly depressed, there are one or two signs which point to a possible improvement. For one thing, the benefits o f a readjustment in the form of consolidations are beta* considered. Then again, industrial stocks of coal on hand have been declining almost steadily for over year, according to the National Association of Purchas ing Agents, and on April 1 were at their lowest point for two years. Even with the present hand-to-mouth buying policy, it would appear that the reduction |n stocks is bringing production and consumption in closer relation to each other. Some wholesalers report business THE MONTHLY BUSINESS well in excess of last year, and on the whole the feeling in the Pittsburgh district appears to be a little better than it was a month ago. Anthracite prices rose from $8.70 per gross ton on April 8 to $8.98 on May 8. Production for the four weeks ending May 9 amounted to 7,524,000 net tons, as compared with 6,368,000 during the same period last year. Coke prices also showed a gain during the month, standing at $3.15 per short ton on May 8 as compared with $3.00 a month previous. The production of by product coke in April amounted to 3,316,000 tons, and that of beehive coke to 806,000 tons. The total pro duction, 4,122,000 tons, was 440,000 tons less than dur ing March, but was 483,000 tons greater than the 1924 monthly average. Oil At this time conditions in the oil in dustry appear to be reaching a period of greater stabilization than earlier this year. While production of crude for the first four months is ahead of last year, a good part of this increased output came from the new deep sand at Smackover, Arkansas, and is by nature unfitted to produce any great percentage of gasoline. Reports to the NATIONAL PETROLEUM NEWS indicate that production in this field has about reached its peak. Over the country generally, new fields of importance are not in sight. The gasoline market has been helped through the early months of the year by fine weather, which has stimulated motoring. Consumption is running 25 to 30 per cent ahead of a year ago. The refinery market on this product is stronger, and stocks are not being added to materially at present, particularly in the OklahomaKansas market. The automobile industry during April and early May has been operating at top speed. Production in April, ac cording to the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce, amounted to 430.000 cars, the largest single month in history. April showed a gain of 62,000 cars over March, nearly all of which took place in passenger cars. As compared with April, 1924, production showed an increase of 68.000 cars. Automobiles The recent increase in activity appears to be greater than the usual seasonal gain which occurs in the spring. An important factor in the situation is that production this year is reported to be only keeping about even with sales, which have been in heavy volunre; whereas last year there was an overproduction, due to the fact that sales did not materialize to the extent anticipated. Closed cars continue to increase in popularity. In 1919, closed cars constituted only 10.3 per cent of total production; in 1924, the figure had risen to 43.0 per cent. A recent announcement by the General Motors Cor poration states that its sales of closed cars in March, 1925, amounted to 61 per cent of the total, as compared 3 REVIEW with 54 per cent in February and 47 per cent in Jan uary. The foreign market offers a great field for Americanmade cars, since the United States now uses over 80 per cent of the world's cars. Shipments of cars to foreign countries in 1924 totaled 386,580, an increase of 17 Ms per cent over 1923 and the largest year on record for exports of cars. Automobile Production 1924-1925 Figures Represent Practically Complete Production and Are Based upon Reports Received by the Federal Reserve Bank o f Chicago in Co-operation with the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce from Identical Firms Each Month. 1924 1925 Passenger Passenger Cars Trucks Cars Trucks January..................... 203,757 25,650 287,211 28,247 February................... 246,669 32,014 336,284 30,399 M arch....................... 326,140 42,274 348,287 33,061 April.......................... 384,902 45,534 336,968 34,977 M ay ..................................................................... 279,385 32,326 June..................................................................... 217,845 27,040 July...................................................................... 237,431 24,895 August................................................................. 251,553 26,781 September................ ........... ........... 260,091 30,154 October............................................................... 257,839 30,597 Novem ber........................................................... 201,652 26,246 Decem ber................. ........... ........... 178,570 25,333 T o ta l. 3,193,116 350,056 Tires The most important development dur ing the month with regard to tires was the increase in prices which oc curred about the first of May, and which amounted to 5 per cent on cord tires and 10 per cent on certain other classes. This in crease had been anticipated for some time, and was due to the continued rise in the price of crude rubber, which has recently advanced to nearly 70 cents a pound, as compared with 45 cents on April 15 and 22 cents a year ago. Even with this very marked gain, the rise in tire prices has as yet been small, due to greater ef ficiency in operation and to increased tire sales. Akron manufacturers report that sales have continued to run ahead of last year, in the face of the price ad vance. The activity in the automobile industry has na turally been reflected in operations at tire plants. Stocks of tires, both in dealers' and in manufacturers' hands, are higher than a year ago. Dealers reporting to the National Tire Dealers' Association on April 1 had 14 per cent more pneumatic tires on hand than on the same date in 1924, and stocks of high pressure inner tubes in manufacturers’ hands, according to a report of the Rubber Association in America, amounted to 9,540,993 on April 1, as compared with 8,054,331 on April 1, 1924. The rise in manufacturers' shocks has now been continuous since last August, and the April 1 figure is higher than at any time during the past four years. Preliminary figures as of May 1 indicate a still further increase in inventory. Production of balloon inner tubes nearly doubled dur ing March, and shipments also showed a sharp increase. 4 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS Shipments of high pressure inner tubes in March were only 2.7 times greater than those of balloon tubes, while in February they were 4.0 times greater and in March, 1924, they were 38.9 times greater. Textiles Some lines of textile manufacturing in this District have experienced a slight increase in activity during the past month. In one case this is re ported to be due to increased demand from the rural districts, while other manufacturers at tribute the renewed interest to the necessity of replenish ing depleted stocks. Business in the early part of May appears to show no great change from that of April. Sales of nineteen wholesale dry goods firms in the District during April continued to run behind last year. The decrease was only 3.6 per cent, however, as com pared with a decrease of 11.8 per cent for the first four months of 1925. April sales declined 9.5 per cent from those of March. General Manufacturing Business in various lines of manufacture in the Fourth District during April was in most cases better than a year ago. The slackening tendency which was noticeable during March as com pared to February was not so general during April, and appears to have been arrested in some lines. The agricultural implement industry in the District reports a marked improvement over last year, and also an improvement over the first quarter of this year. Busi ness in plate glass continues at an exceedingly high rate, but there has been a decline in demand for window glass. The pottery trade has been quiet; one manufacturer states that the importation of cheap pottery from abroad is having a depressing effect. The paper industry has experienced a seasonal falling-off. Boxboard manufac turers are handicapped by an excess of productive ca pacity. Manufacturers of machinery report that busi ness declined from March, but is holding its own with last year. March and April in the paint trade were considerably above the same months in 1924. Ohio. The State Department of Agriculture reports that the prospects for wheat are the lowest in thirteen years. Fully 30 per cent of the acre age in the state is reported as hav ing been destroyed through winter killing, and the re maining acreage is said to be thin and uneven. The southern part of the state has apparently suffered most, some of the counties reporting that as high as 60 per cent of the acreage has been abandoned. REVIEW all giving promise of a full crop. A sudden cold spell in the latter part of May, however, has caused some uncertainty. In the southern sections, there has been considerable damage to the buds from freezing. South ern Ohio reports the outlook for peaches as poor, apples from 75 to 90 per cent of normal, and pears and cherries making about a 40 per cent showing. Pennsylvania. The Department o f Agriculture reports the wheat prospects as better than for the past two years, although somewhat below the ten-year average. On April 1, the crop was estimated to be 85 per cent o f normal, as compared with 83 per cent last year. Farm wages are stated to be slightly lower than a year ago, with the available supply greater than at any time for the past two years. Kentucky. The May report for the state indicates an increase of about 35 per cent in the wheat crop over that of 1924. The acreage is now estimated at 566,000 acres as against 434,000 acres harvested last year while the condition of the crop on May 1 was 79 per cent o f normal as against 69 per cent on the same date a year ago. Kentucky farmers report the supply o f labor as 97 per cent of the demand. The spring condition of livestock in general is con siderably above the average due to the mild winter and generally fair condition of spring pasturage. Tobacco Reports from the tobacco-growing sec tions of the Fourth District indicate a slight increase in acreage over that o f last year. Thus far the weather has been favorable for preparing the ground, and plants of all grades are reported as bem * in good condition with the supply quite ample for probable demand. fB“ rl«y T°bacco G " " " * * Association announces the distribution to growers of 1923 crop o f $12,419440 to be made early in June, and also announces that a recent sale has been made to the Japanese government monopoly. This is of more than ordinary interest in view o f the fact that it is the first on record to that country. Agricultural Conditions On the other hand, reports indicate that oats fields are in fine condition, the present outlook promising one o f the best crops the state has ever had. Rye is also reported as being in a fair condition. Fruit prospects until recently were good in the northern portion of the state, apples, peaches, pears and cherries Building In recent years, April has usually shown a falling off from March in the valuation of building permits, but this year has proved an exception. Bradstreet’s preliminary figures cover ing 147 cities indicate an increase of 20 per cent over March and of 30 per cent over April, 1924. In the Fourth District also there was an increase over March, amounting to almost 10 per cent, and an in crease over April of last year, amounting to 11.8 per cent. For the first four months o f 1925, a gain o f 20.1 per cent was shown over the corresponding period last year. For the four months period, the greatest gains were shown by Akron with 112.3 per cent, and Columbus with 37.9 per cent, while Toledo and Wheel THE MONTHLY BUSINESS m g showed the greatest declines with 27.1 and 25.0 per cent respectively. Building O perations April, 1925 No. % change permits from 1924 c V n x L : f ? l Cincinnati...... Cleveland....... Columbu*....... KHet0n; ; : : : : ; : pfneb^rgh..!., Springfield...... 1oJedo........... Wheeling........ Youngstown... _n s % change Valuation 1924 i2f m n l - w ! 803 2,282 851 326 —2.3 —6.9 5.5 —0^6 3,816,155 9,035,696 2,662,900 1,019 177 1 1 .9 4 ,885,039 —8.3 880 —10.4 71 —61.4 295 —17.1 256,295 1,298,151 412,441 1,114,175 ........ from Firrt four month* 1925 % change from Valuation 1924 ''Illicit S28-484'754 —5.7 30.5 6.0 —H 36.3 8.9 —46.2 7.6 —8.2 1 0 -6 .7 9,547,010 15.0 32,113,298 25.5 8,944,850 37.9 ilsioisis 2\'.l 15,019,598 32.0 .548,680 7.7 4,Jib,014 -—It. I 1,429,309 —25 o 2,947,895 —8.9 J89-105’597 5 REVIEW terials on April 1 as compared with January 1 shows that in Pittsburgh six items advanced in price, two declined, and fifteen remained stationary. In Cleveland, there were four advances and two declines, while seven remained stationary. . , , . Cement production in A p n l fo r Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and W est V irgin ia totaled 1,275,000 barrels, to thp GEOLOGICAL was according to m e U I^ USURVEY. L W ll;A L oThis u x v v j^ z. was an increase o f 296,000 barrels over April, 1924. For the United States, April production was 13,807,000 barrels, about 2,000,000 over last year and 2,800,000 over March. Stocks declined slightly in April, after mounting to the ... . , . i highest point on record at the end of March. R etail T rade Sales o f seventy departm ent stores in Building Materials The lumber market has been characthis District during April showed a terized by a softening o f prices durdecrease o f 1.1 per cent from April, ing the past month. The Aberthaw 1924. The decrease fo r the first four index of industrial building costs months o f 1925 from the correspondshowed a slight drop during April after ing period last year was also 1.1 per cent. For April, having been stationary for some months. Am ong the four cities gained over a year ago, the greatest increase, causes of this slackening may be mentioned the recent 16.4 per cent, having occurred in Columbus. Canton, with tendency of stocks of lumber to accumulate at the mills 15.7 per cent, showed the greatest decrease, and the slight excess o f production over orders during Even with the slight loss from last year> sales during the present season. The feeling is also held in some April were higher than fo r any other April in the past quarters that the manufacturers prefer a steady deseven years with the exception o f 1924. This bank's mand at present prices to a possibly unsettled demand index numbers o f sales o f fifty-five department stores at higher prices. (1919-1923— 100) fo r April from 1919 through 1925 are In this District, some manufacturers report a seaas follow s: 86, 104, 103, 101, 111, 124, 121. sonal increase in activity, but business is described as being only fair. In most cases business during the first Wholesale All reporting wholesale lines showed four months of this year was about the same as in 1924, Trade a loss in sales during A pril as combut the past few weeks have compared somewhat unpared with the same month last year, favorably with last year. In the case of wholesale groceries, For the first eighteen weeks in 1925, ending May 2, eveiT city reported a loss, the decrease production amounted to 4,428 million feet, according *or ^ e District as a whole amounting to a report of the National Lumber Manufacturers' A sto ?*6 per cent. sociation. This was 60 million feet less than shipments, For the first four months of 1925, as compared with but 63 million feet in excess of orders. During the last year, grocery sales declined 7.1 per cent; dry goods, four weeks ending May 2, shipments and orders were n .8 per cent; hardware, 1.5 per cent; and shoes, 1.4 98 and 99 per cent o f production, respectively. per cent. W holesale drugs on the other hand, showed A comparison of the cost o f various building ma* an increase o f 0.7 per cent. Comparative Statistics, by Selected Cities, of First Four Months of 1925 and 1924. (Percentage increase or decrease during first four months of 1925 over same period in 1924.) Debits to Building Department Wholesale Other Deposits Individual Permits Store Grocery Wholesale Postal o f Member Accounts (Valuation) Sales Sales Sales* Receipts Banks*** Akron............................. 12.6 112.3 4 .6 1.8 .... 1. 8 7.3 Canton........................... 2.8 — 6.7 — 14.1 .... .... _______ Cincinnati..................... 12.0 1S.0 2.S — 8.2 — 7.0 13.4 17.9 Cleveland...................... 5.2 25.5** — 1.5 — 8.4 7.6 7.3 11 . 8 Columbus...................... 4 .2 37.9 11.1 — 10.1 — 6.3 2.9 3 3 D ayton.......................... — 5.9 24.2 — 2 .9 ___ — 7 .6 21 .6 — 0 .4 Erie................................. 5.6 4.8 .... — 4.3 .... .... 10 4 Lexington...................... 0.7 — 12. 2 ___ — 17.6 — 12. 0 8.2 11. 9 Pittsburgh..................... 10.7 32.0 — 2 .9 — 0 .6 — 9.5 0 .9 18.2 Springfield..................... 5.3 7.7 ___ ___ ___ 47 .0 11.1 T oledo............................ 9.5 — 27.1 — 5.4 — 7 .0 — 6.8 — 0 .9 6 .4 Wheeling....................... — 4. 1 — 25.0 — 7.1 .... — 15.7 .... — 0 .9 Youngstown.................. 6 .9 — 8.9 0. 1 — 23.1 .... .... 6.0 D IS T R IC T .................. 7.7 20.1 — 1. 1 ‘ Includes Drugs, Dry Goods, Hardware, and Shoes. ‘ ‘ Includes East Cleveland, Lakewood, and Shaker Heights. ♦••April 22, 1925, as compared with April 23, 1924. — 7.1 — 5.9 9 .0 13.0 6 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS Retail Trade Sales REVIEW Wholesale Trade and Chain Store Sales Percentage Increase or Decrease SALES SALES April, 1925, Jan.-Apr., 1925, No. o f compared with compared with Reports April, 1924 Jan.-Apr., 1924 D E P A R T M E N T STORES Akron........... 4 .6 7 .0 5 — 14.1 Canton.......... 4 ■ —15.7 2.5 4.2 Cincinnati.. . 7 —1.5 6 — 2.3 Cleveland 16.4 6 11.1 Columbus — 2.9 5 — 5.2 D ayton......... —3.5 3 — 7.5 New C astle.. — 2.9 8 — 3.9 Pittsburgh... — 5.4 —0.8 5 T oledo.......... —7,1 5 — 6.9 Wheeling. . . . 0.4 3 Youngstown. 3.4 3.1 13 Other Cities*. 70 —1.1 —1.1 D istrict......... ‘•‘Includes Erie, Lima, Mansfield, Marion, Norwalk, Oil City, Portsmouth, Sharon, Springfield, and Washington C. H. 0.1 W EA RIN G APPAREL Cincinnati.......... 5 6.7 ......... Cleveland........... 3 22.9 .......... Other Cities**. . 10 — 3.5 .......... D istrict............... 18 6.5 ......... **Includes Canton, Columbus, Fostoria, Mt. Vernon, Pitts burgh, Sandusky, and Toledo. Percentage Increase or Decrease SALES SALES April, 1925 Jan.-Apr., 1925, Wo. or compared with compared with GROCERIES eP° rtS A k ron .................. Cincinnati.......... Cleveland........... C olum bu s.......... E rie..................... Lexington........... Pittsburgh.......... T oled o................. Y o u n g s to w n .... Other Cities*.. . D istrict............... Dry Goods D is.. Drugs District. . . . Hardware District. Shoes D istrict........ April> 1924 3 _ j 0 3 —7 5 4— 9.1 3— 12.1 4— 4 ! 4 3— 21.2 7— 6 5 3 3— 25.6 22— 4. 0 55— 7*6 19— 3 . 6 16 18— 3 9 6— 5,5 - 3 !8 Jan.-Apr., 1924 j g __________ g '2 __________ g ' 4 _________ in 1 __________ 4*3 _________ 17 6 __________ n *6 -7 0 _________ 1 __________ 5 9 __________ 7 1 __________ n 8 0 7 — 0.1 __________ j ^ __________ ‘ Includes Butler, Canton Connellsville, Dayton, Dover, Greens f i T ! \ , r0T n' n lmn ' .Mansfie>d. Massillon, Portsmouth, Spring! field, Steubenville, Umontown, Warren, Pa., Wheeling, and X en ia C H A IN STORES** Drugs-District. . . . 3 — 1.6 0 0 *** Groceries-District.. 5 0.1 57 **Sales per individual unit operated. ***Sales identical for both years. Index Numbers of Trade in the Fourth Federal Reserve District April, April, April, April, April, (Average Monthly Sales for the Five-Year Period 1919--1923, Inclusiv Wholesale Department Wholesale Wholesale Wholesale Dry Goods Drugs Stores Groceries Hardware (18 firms) (55 firms) (15 firms) (53 firms) (17 firms) 91 96 103 83 105 73 90 101 70 90 86 111 106 86 125 124 79 112 84 109 76 112 121 78 104 1921. 1922. 1923. 1924. 1925. —100) Chain Drugs (3 firms) 99 96 98 100 99 Debits to Individual Accounts 1 5 weeks 2 A kron..................... Butler, Pa............. Canton................... Cincinnati.............. C leveland.. . . . . . . Columbus.............. Connellsville, P a .. D ayton ................... Erie, Pa................. Greensburg, Pa.. . Homestead, P a .. . Lexington, K y .. . . Lim a....................... Lorain..................... Oil City, Pa.......... Pittsburgh, P a .... Springfield............. Steubenville.......... T oledo.................... Warren................... Wheeling, W. Va. Youngstown.......... Zanesville............... ending M ay 13, 1925 $105,077 13,563 59,317 409,214 872,849 167,461 5,481 86,817 40,185 23,503 5,905 22,249 23,593 8,122 16,009 1,052,03* 25,384 14,46* 242,627 16,409 53,329 77,340 15,203 5 weeks ending April 8, 1925 $91,396 13,371 55,284 417,242 720,169 157,817 5,415 86,544 37,798 21,660 5,258 26,356 23,036 8,436 16,349 1,095,809 23,785 12,762 227,880 15,883 51,385 76,652 14,680 T o ta l.................. $3,356,139 $3,204,967 (In thousands o f dollars) 4 3 5 5 weeks % inc. or % inc. or ending dec. col. 1 dec,. col. 1 May 14, over col. 2 over col. 3 1924 15.0 $84,513 24.3 1.4 14,219 — 4.6 55,172 7.3 7.5 — 1.9 368,397 11.1 21.2 814,660 7.1 6.1 158,345 5.8 1.2 5,517 — 0.7 81,475 0 .3 6.6 36,998 6.3 8.6 24,488 8.5 — 4.0 5,261 12.3 12.2 22,976 — 15.6 — 3.2 22,010 2.4 7.2 7,307 — 3.7 11.2 16,389 — 2.1 — 2.3 988,087 — 4.0 6.5 23,085 6.7 10.0 14,998 13.3 — 3.6 211,762 6.4 14.6 16,066 3.3 2.1 52,468 3.8 1.6 78,429 0 .9 — 1.4 3 .6 — 9.7 16,833 $3,119,455 4 .7 7.6 1925 to date (Jan. 1 to May 13) $356,080 48,382 211,980 1,552,175 2,962,104 609,622 20,418 326,644 144,402 89,069 19,543 118,495 84,850 30,062 61,838 4,123,833 94,094 50,323 871,365 58,806 201,318 300,297 53,847 $12,389^547 7 8 1924 to date % incr. or (Jan. 3 to deer. col. May 14) 6 over col. 7 $316,205 12 6 47,088 2 .7 206,246 2.8 1,385,630 12 0 2,815,745 5 .2 585,115 4 .2 20,999 — 2*8 307,242 —5 9 136,789 5 6 99,006 — 1 0. 0 18,123 7 8 117,713 0 7 81,683 3 .9 26,181 14. 8 63,294 —2 4 3,724,841 10 .7 89,331 5 3 53,018 — 5 .1 796,036 9 5 64,245 — 8 .5 209,877 — 4.1 280,890 6 9 59,249 — 9.1 $11,504,546 7 .7 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 7 National Summary of Business Conditions (By Federal Reserve Board) PRODUCTION IN BASIC INDUSTRIES Index of 22 basic commodities corrected for seasonal variation (1919— 100) Latest figure— April, 119 Index o f U. 8. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1913 — 100, base adopted by Bureau) Latest figure — April, 156 M EMBER BANK C R E D IT Weekly figures for member banks in 101 lead ing cities— Latest figures— May 13th Index o f S3 manufacturing industries <1919— 1M). Baaed on number of men employed and ------- nt of payrolls. April figures: Employ ment 96; Payrolls, 108. Production in basic industries and factory employment continued at ap proximately the same level during April as in March. Factory payrolls were smaller, and wholesale prices declined sharply. Distribution of commodities was maintained at higher levels than a year ago. Production The output in basic industries declined less than 1 per cent in April. Decreased production of iron and steel, flour, and copper was largely offset in the Federal Reserve Board’s production index by increases in mill con sumption of cotton and in the production of newsprint and petroleum. The output of automobiles, which are not included in the index, has increased rapidly since December, and in April was the largest ever recorded. A u tomobile tire production was maintained at the high level reached in March. The number of men employed at industrial establishments remained practi cally the same in April as in March, but owing to less full time operation, particularly in the textile, leather, and food industries, total factory payrolls decreased about 2 per cent. Building contracts awarded during April were the largest on record both in value and in square feet. Estimates by the Department of Agriculture on May 1 indicated a re duction of 6 per cent from the April forecast in the yields of winter wheat and rye. The winter wheat crop is expected to be 25 per cent smaller than last year and the indicated yield of rye is 9 per cent less. Trade Wholesale trade was smaller in all lines except hardware during April than in March. Compared with a year ago sales of groceries and shoes were less, but sales of meats, dry goods, and drugs were larger. Sales at de partment stores and by mail order houses showed more than the usual sea sonal increases in April and were larger than during April, 1924. Whole sale stocks of groceries, shoes, and hardware were smaller at the end of April than a month earlier, while dry goods were larger. Merchandise stocks at department stores showed less than the usual seasonal increase in April, but were in about the same volume as a year ago. Freight car loadings of merchandise were greater than in March and larger than in any previous April. Prices Wholesale prices, according to the index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, declined 3 per cent in April, following an almost uninterrupted rise since the middle of 1924. All groups of commodities shared in the decline of prices, except house furnishings and the miscellaneous group. The largest declines were in farm products and foods, which had shown the most rapid increases. During the first three weeks in May, prices of grains, beef, hogs, flour, and rubber advanced, while declines occurred in cotton, wool, lum ber, and iron prices. Bank Credit A t the middle of May total loans and investments of member banks in leading cities were near the level which has prevailed, with only minor fluctua tions, since the first of the year. Loans chiefly for commercial purposes de clined slightly between the middle of April and the middle of May, while loans on securities rose to a high point at the end of April and decreased somewhat during the first two weeks of May. Total investment holdings which increased considerably during the first half of March have declined somewhat since that time. Net demand deposits increased considerably from the low point at the end of March, but were still $500,000,000 less than at the middle of January. A t the reserve banks there was a marked decline in the volume of mem ber bank borrowings after the first week in May, and total earning assets of the reserve banks on May 20 were less than $1,000,000,000 for the first time since January. Acceptances and holdings of United States securities on that date were in about the same volume as a month earlier. Indexes of National Business Conditions The base (100) for all the charts except the first is the monthly average for the 5 years 1919-1923 inclusive. For the first chart, the base is the monthly average for the three years 1921-1923. ^VOLUME OF CHECK PAYMENTS"?, iso i s o -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------------------------------------200 ------ ■— — 150 ... ■. — ^ mA w * Mw T V< V s ^ 5 0 ------ — o 1920 £Tt 192 1 mn WHOLESALE TRADE ---------------- 250 200 --------- jJLiw1*(LAijL. 200 I S O --------- ISO A * fy A A 100 jA 10 --------- 50 a 1920 1921 1 922 1923 '9*4 CENT 1920 1925 192.1 1922 1923 (924 1925 0 ^E X P O R T S OF MERCHANDISE;," ISO I--------------------------------------- A w y S y J r l 1 T j f kr A I 200 •30 *00 ' 30 1920 COAL PRODUCTION ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ «• v/ TV— I i rc* 1422 11)3 1. 2. 3. 4. 024 1924 1925 19 zo ,9 2( rc»t CEN T 250 A L/V kVj V IO 0 1920 Member Bank Credit. A pril Loans 115, InYestments 155. Member Bank Deposits. April, Demand 119, Time 170. Check p a y m e n t s (except N. Y.) March, 121. C o m m e r c ia l Failures. April* 150. 5. Retail T r a d e . March, 108. 0. Wholesale T rade/ March, 94. I92J J L o 192 2 PIG IRON PRODUCTION k tV'NK A\\ V 1 / r 1921 t»2t 1921 LATEST 1923 t9£4 J925 FIGURES 7. Building Permits. April, 247. 8. Car Loadings. April, 99. 9. Exports of Merchandise. April, 84. 1 0 . Bituminous Coal Production. April, 84. l i . p| * Iron Production. April, 130. 1 2 . Automobile Production, April, 208. IS22 1923 19 24 O
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