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Busin
Finance, Industry,
Agriculture, and Trade
Vol. 28
Fourth Federal Reserve (District
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Cleveland, Ohio; July 1, 1946
No. 7
Postwar Department Store Trade in the Fourth District
High Level
of Sales
W ith the rounding out o f the first
twelve months o f peacetime econom ic
activity, considerable significance at
taches to the fact that department store sales were
maintained at record-high levels during most o f the
reconversion period. Neither the ending o f the war
in Europe, nor that with Japan, appears to have had
more than a fleeting effect upon dollar sales volume.
Only for a short time last M ay, and again in August
and September did departm ent store trade in the
Fourth District seem to have been affected by changes
in the industrial outlook. W ork stoppages o f con
siderable duration in m ajor industries in the recent
past likewise failed to make a visible impression upon
the general trend in sales.
I f anything, the margin
over a year or tw o earlier, has been wider during the
past three or four months than at any other time in
recent years.
In some measure this rising trend m ay be attri
buted to the fact that merchandise prices are higher
by varying amounts than in previous years. Thus
even if the physical volum e o f transactions had re
mained constant, the dollar volume would have shown
some increase over preceding years. W hether price
increases have been a m ajor or a minor factor in the
present record-high dollar volume is a m oot point,
but opinion in the trade seems to give considerable
weight to the price trend.
Another element in the picture is the relatively
high level o f personal or individual incomes. Although
incomes received by individuals in the aggregate are
somewhat smaller than at the wartime peak last
summer, the percentage withheld for income tax pay
ments has also been reduced, and the amount diverted
to the purchase o f Series E bonds or other forms o f
savings is smaller. M oreover, savings accumulated
during the war years have been activated in some
degree with stimulative effect upon department store
trade.
A third factor o f no small consequence in the
current situation is the gradual reappearance o f items
which had been either extremely scarce or virtually
unobtainable for an extended period, and for which
a substantial unfulfilled demand exists.
A ny one o f these three forces— rising prices, the
high level o f consumer buying power, and the gradual
increase in supply o f a number o f items— would
probably have been sufficient unto itself to maintain
dollar volume at a com paratively high level. The
com bined effect has been to push sales to unprecedent
ed heights. Easter trade this spring reached totals in
excess o f Christmas business o f only a few years ago.
The 1946-to-date margin over 1945, and the latter
over 1944, are shown on an adjoining chart. The
figures plotted are weekly sales (U. S.) unadjusted
for seasonal influences. T he week-by-week trend for
the Fourth D istrict has been similar to that o f the
country as a whole in every m ajor respect, although
during the past three months the margin over 1945
has been slightly wider in the Fourth District than in
the rest o f the country.
Department Store Sales by Weeks—U. S.
(1935-39=100, Unadjusted)
PERCENT
2
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Dissimilarities
Among Fourth
District Cities
Experience within the D istrict has
not been uniform. The manner in ,*
which department store sales have
risen over 1945 in individual cities
o f the District is illustrated in the following table:
May 1946 Department Store Sales by Major Cities
1945
= 100
(Unadjusted for Seasonal Variation)
C a n ton .......................................... ..125.4
Pittsburgh.................................... ..123.9
C in cinn ati.......................................121.8
D I S T R I C T ....................................121.4
C leveland........................................120.9
W h eelin g.........................................120.6
C olum bus. ................................... ..118. 7
Y o u n gstow n ............ •.....................118.4
A k ro n ...............................................116.3
T o le d o ........................................... ..113.1
E rie ...................................................109.8
Springfield............: ........................108.1
Thus the margins in M ay, over the 1945 average,
ranged from a nominal 8 percent to a high o f better
than 25 percent, which was reported by Canton stores.
In the District as a whole, sales this M a y were
21.4 percent above the 1945 average, but only three
cities reported a greater net gain, while in eight
others the expansion in trade was below the general
trend for this area.
O f the three which rank topm ost in the foregoing
tabulation, only tw o cities (Cincinnati and Pittsburgh)
have shown a persistent trend in this respect since the
first o f the year. Throughout the first five months o f
1946, those tw o trading centers repeatedly reported
the m ost substantial im provem ent over the preceding
year’ s record, and at this date June appears to have
been no exception. Alm ost as much might be said o f
both Cleveland and W heeling where sales volum e has
been maintained at relatively high levels throughout
most o f the first half o f 1946. In the four cities
enumerated, departm ent store sales reveal no pro
nounced evidence o f having been adversely affected
b y work stoppages, transportation disruptions, im
pairment o f consumer income, or by the various and
sundry impediments o f a local nature such as sus
pension o f newspaper publication in one large city,
fuel holidays and other handicaps.
Less immune to these or other influences o f similar
im port were the three cities o f Canton, Colum bus,
and Youngstow n. In the latter two the margin over
1945 has consistently been o f only moderate dimen
sions and Canton was one o f three Ohio cities wherein
M arch volum e ran behind a year earlier. Y et in that
city sales showed a marked improvement during M ay,
suggesting that the forces which tended to restrain
trade during the early months o f the year have been
dispelled, at least for the time being.
In the remaining four cities, Akron, Toledo, Spring
field, and Erie, the im provem ent over 1945 has been
o f only nominal proportions. The physical volum e
o f merchandise which m oved through departm ent
stores and into consumers’ hands in those areas
probably fell short o f the 1945 rate for weeks at a time.
July 1, 1946
Presumably the “ reconversion” process necessitated
more drastic adjustments in those cities than else
where. T he less favorable showing m ay have been
due to a greater reduction in payrolls, less adequate
supplies o f merchandise, more consumer resistance
to higher prices, or some com bination o f these possi
bilities.
Variations
This diversity o f experience throughAmong
out t^ie District was even more
Departments pronounced in sales volum e among
the various categories o f merchandise
offered for sale. The volum e o f m ajor household
appliances has begun to becom e appreciable once
more. A well-known landmark was reached when sales
reached the 1941 volum e during M ay, although in
physical units the sale o f such appliances was some
what below the record year 1941.
M en ’ s clothing and furnishings are also m oving out
very rapidly in comparison to a year ago. Perhaps
this strong demand is a more effective factor than
short supplies in keeping inventories at almost in
visible levels in some items.
A t the other extreme are such lines as wom en’ s
underwear, silks, velvets, woolen dress goods, cotton
wash goods, aprons, and house dresses. Sales in those
lines are barely changed from a year earlier. Books,
stationery, art needlework and artgoods are also
m oving relatively slowly. In some instances it m ay be
due wholly to inadequate stocks, but in others it m ay
be the result o f consumer satiety, and preferences for
other articles.
Inventories o f merchandise likewise show wide
dissimilarities from department to department. In
terms o f the entire store, stocks in the Fourth District
total about the same as a year ago; but here again, cer
tain lines such as draperies, curtains, upholstery, house
wares, and luggage are stocked in dollar quantities o f
50-60 percent greater than last year. Conversely, in
ventories o f men’ s clothing, furnishings, shoes, wom en’s
and misses’ coats and suits, and a number o f other
departments, are decidedly less ample than a year or
so ago.
In the course o f time, as full production is attained
and after demand has been partially gratified, in
ventories among departments will com e closer into
conventional balance. Sales will likewise fall back
into more familiar patterns than have prevailed
through the first full year o f protracted reconversion.
But the ultimate return to more nearly normal
conditions will not eliminate all discrepancies in sales
performance am ong the eleven or more reporting
cities nor am ong stores within each city. In some in
stances the changes wrought b y war activities will
prove to have been o f a permanent nature while in
other cases a transition back toward prewar relation
ships appears to be under way.
July 1, 1946
3
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Building Trends in the Fourth District 1939-1946
In 1939, there was a fairly even distribution among
the m ajor classifications: apartments, 29 percent;
one-fam ily (owner) 38 percent; and one-fam ily (sale
or rent) 29 percent. T w o-fam ily dwellings accounted
for only 3 percent o f the number o f dwellings. The
latter classification has remained fairly constant dur
ing the peace time years o f this period, ranging from
three to four percent, and is back to four percent for
the first four months o f 1946. During 1942, however,
tw o-fam ily dwellings provided eleven percent o f the
dwelling units, probably as a result o f housing pro
jects near defense plants.
A study o f contracts awarded for new residential
construction in the Fourth District* reveals that tw o
m ajor revolutions have been taking place in recent
years. Single-family dwellings being built for sale-orrent, with nearly all o f them being offered for sale,
now account for nearly 75 percent o f all new dwelling
units instead o f less than 33 percent before the war.
T h e gain has been at the expense o f apartment units
and single-family dwellings built for owner account.
T he second startling change is that the two-fam ily
dwellings being built now cost more per-square-foot
than one-fam ily dwellings being built for owner
occupancy.
The accom panying bar chart shows the percentage
distribution o f contracts awarded in terms o f dwelling
units for the entire District as among apartments and
tw o-fam ily dwellings, one-fam ily dwellings built for
owners, and one-fam ily dwellings built for sale or rent.
T o Simplify the presentation, apartment and tw ofam ily dwelling units have been com bined into one
category. T he width o f the bars indicates the total
number o f units for each year.
Small Percentage
of Apartment
Houses
A radical change has taken place
in the proportion o f dwelling
units provided b y apartment
houses. From 29 percent in
1939, the number fell to 13 percent in 1941. The need
to conserve materials per unit, resulted in a fourfold
expansion in 1943, when more than h alf o f all new
dwelling units were apartments. Since then, the
proportion has rapidly declined until tod ay only 1 0
percent o f new units are represented by apartments.
*Since data are not available by counties, all of Kentucky and
West Virginia are included in the District computations.
The F. W . Dodge Corporation is the source of all statistical
material upon which this discussion is based.
Residential Building Contracts Awarded
By Type of Dwelling Unit
Fourth District
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
m
>
$
1945
I
1946
TWO-FAMILY DWELLINGS
& APARTMENTS
ONE- FAMILY DWELLINGS
(OWNER OCCUPIED)
ONE-FAMILY DWELLINGS
(SALE OR RENT)
28,500 36,500
• based
on
f ir s t
49.000 34,700 25.200
fo u r
m o nths.
5.500
6.700
34,000 NO. OF UNITS
SOURCE: F. W. DODGE CORPORATION.
4
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
This is about one-third o f the 1939 level. Uncertain
costs coupled with the fear that inadequate rent
ceilings will be forced upon builders are probably the
ch ief causes o f this situation. This is particularly
unfortunate in view o f the desperate need for addi
tional rental property and the need for econom y in
the use o f critical building materials.
The typical returning war veteran is less than 30
years old and in most cases has not yet definitely
com m itted himself to a given jo b or com m unity.
U nder these circumstances his preference lies in the
direction o f low cost rental units instead o f long term
purchase contracts. Apartm ent units can also be
built at a lower cost per-square-foot o f floor area than
any other form o f dwelling at present day building
costs. T he value per-square-foot o f apartment units
is now $5.37 as com pared to $6.09 for one-fam ily
dwellings built for sale or rent. The savings are thus
substantial.
The trend toward single-family dwellings at the
expense o f apartment projects also promises to speed
the decentralization o f metropolitan areas and con
tribute to a decline in property values in built-up
areas o f cities. M ultiple unit dwellings are custom arily
built relatively close to shopping, business, and com
mercial centers and so tend to maintain these property
values. Single-family dwellings, on the other hand,
are erected on the fringes o f the metropolitan area
and frequently outside the corporate limits. T o a
com m unity, this spells increased costs in terms o f
streets, utilities, fire and police protection, public
transportation, schools, etc. It also means decay
and neglect o f older residential areas near the center
o f cities as the population moves out toward the peri
meter o f the new housing. M ortgage values in the
older areas also tend to becom e impaired with these
shifts and place new burdens upon lenders. T ax delinquincies likewise increase to the detriment o f city
treasuries.
Like the construction o f apartments, contracts
awarded for one-fam ily owner-dwellings have also
experienced a spectacular decline since 1939 when this
classification accounted for 38 percent o f all new
dwelling units. B y 1943, this category represented
only one percent. Extreme uncertainty as to future
personal status and tight building controls were the
ch ief causes o f this trend. 1944 was little better, and
1945 saw this category rise to 29 percent or about
two-thirds o f the 1939 level. H owever, in the first
four months o f 1946, only 13 percent o f new contracts
awarded were for one-fam ily owner units. This is a
rather surprising fact in view o f the high level o f
individual incomes, and the abundance o f war accum u
lated savings.
The principal explanation is that m any would-be
single-family home builders have been discouraged by
the sharp increases that have taken place in building
costs since the war. Also, most contractors refuse
to quote a fixed price on a project because o f uncertain
material flow, costs, and labor supply, and prefer to
work on a cost-plus basis or else require a very wide
margin to cover contingencies. The inferior quality
o f many building materials, particularly lumber, has
also been discouraging. These factors have acted to
July 1, 1946
deter individuals from building t h e ir o w n homes.
Trend Toward
The only category to advance
Single-Family
substantially since 1939 has been
Houses for Sale one-fam ily for-sale-or-rent dwell
ings. From less than one-third in
1939, this class now accounts for nearly three-fourths
o f all new housing units being built in the District.
All evidence from the field indicates that most o f these
units are being offered for sale and are rented only as
a last resort. The trend toward this type o f housing
has not been uniform throughout the District. In
Cleveland the proportion has risen from 28 to 72
percent and in Pittsburgh from 24 to 83 percent, but
in Cincinnati only from 36 to 42 percent.
T he general housing shortage acts as a lever to
force individuals who would rather rent to buy
property as a guaranty o f continuous possession. The
present trend to buy houses, instead o f renting them,
is thus a sym ptom o f the shortage and not an indica
tion that the homeowning instinct is on the rise.
Ample evidence is available o f long established tenants
being given their choice o f purchase or face eviction
when the property is sold to a third party. Even
tenants in apartment houses are being given the
“ opportu n ity” o f buying their apartments and be
com ing co-owners o f a cooperative building. M on th ly
charges for maintenance and operating expenses are
levied which correspond closely to previous rental
payments.
T o put the m atter in another way, apartments and
two-fam ily dwellings, which are ordinarily rented, ac
counted for 33 percent o f new residential construction
in 1939. A bou t thirty percent o f the new one-fam ily
units were for sale or rent and probably at least half
o f them were rented. Altogether, approxim ately 50
percent o f new housing was for rent, whereas during
the first four months o f this year, apartments and
two-fam ily dwellings provided only 14 percent o f new
residential units. It has already been suggested that
a very small percentage o f single fam ily units are
being offered for rent. It is therefore apparent, that
the returning war veteran who would like to rent a
new home has very little chance o f doing so in the
visible future.
I f the present rate o f construction contract awards
continues, approxim ately 34,000 new dwelling units
will have been com m enced in the Fourth D istrict in
1946. This com pares to 28,500 in 1939, 49,000 in
1941, and about 5,500 in 1944. Building material
shortages, however, are preventing m any projects
from being carried forward to com pletion.
The total dollar value o f residential contracts in
1946 promises to exceed 1941 which was the largest
year in the Fourth D istrict since 1928.
Square Foot Analysis o f building costs com puted
Values
upon a square fo o t basis from 1939
to 1946 and classified according to
type o f structure reveals some inter
esting differences. Changes in value per-square-foot
are shown by the accom panying table for apartments,
tw o-fam ily dwellings, and one-fam ily dwellings owner
occupied and for sale or rent.
July 1, 1946
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Value Per Square Foot
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
Apartm ent
Buildings
2 4 .2 9
4 .6 3
4 .5 9
One-Fam ily, One-Fam ily,
Owner O ccu py Sale or Rent
34.31
$4.41
4 .3 7
4 .3 5
4 .3 6
4 .4 0
T w o-F a m ily
33 .78
3 .7 9
4 .0 2
. . . . . D ata D istorted by W ar Conditions
5 .1 8
5 .3 7
5 .0 7
5 .0 8
5 .3 7
( 6 .0 9
Percent Increase 1939-1946:
2 5 .2 %
2 4 .6 %
3 8 .1 %
Source: F. W . D odge Corporati on.
5.11
5 .5 6
4 7 .1 %
Square foot value o f one-fam ily dwellings for owner
occu pan cy has increased 24.6 percent above 1939.
This represents the smallest increase in value o f any
class o f residential construction and is about the same
as apartment buildings. The increase from 1945 to
1946, however, has been about six percent. Costs
are now at the highest level for the eight year period,
or $5.37 per square foot as com pared to $4.31 in 1939.
In view o f the fact that m any houses in this category
are being built on a cost-plus basis, the figure quoted
for 1946 m ay be only an original guess and m ay be
substantially increased before the structures are ready
for occupancy.
A 25.2 percent gain over 1939 has occurred in the
per-square-foot value o f apartment houses to reach
$5.37, the highest for the eight year period. A bou t a
(our percent increase from 1945 has taken place during
the first four months o f this year. Value per-squarefo o t in 1946 o f apartment buildings is now identical
to that o f one-fam ily dwellings, owner occupied, 72
cents less than one-fam ily dwellings built for sale or
rent and 19 cents less than tw o-fam ily dwellings. The
spread between per-square-foot values o f apartment
buildings and one-fam ily dwellings, owner occupied,
has remained practically constant during the eight
year interval, but has widened substantially as
between one-fam ily dwellings for sale or rent.
The relatively small rise in apartment values is
probably due to the determination o f these builders
to keep costs as low as possible and the avoidance o f
ornate and extravagant structures that marked a pre
vious construction period. Close scrutiny o f costs by
the O .P .A . in setting rent ceilings may also be a
factor. T h e danger o f inflated capital values is also
recognized for the future when construction costs
begin to return to more nearly normal levels.
In sharp contrast to one-fam ily dwellings, owner
occupied, those built for sale or rent have advanced
38 percent in cost above 1939. T he increase since 1945
has been 2 0 percent, or more than three times the
rate o f increase for dwellings built for the account o f
owners themselves. In 1939, the value per-square-foot
o f single-dwelling for sale or rent was only 1 0 cents
more than for owner occupied units. The spread has
now increased to 72 cents per square foot. T he specula
tive nature o f this type o f building thus becomes
apparent.
The significance o f the rise during the first four
5
months o f 1946 is recognized when it is related to the
fact that 75 percent o f contracts awarded for new
dwelling units falls within this category. Per square
foot value in 1946 has risen to $6.07 or the highest
for any type o f residential unit. This is also the
principal type o f unit which is offered to the veteran
to solve his housing problem.
The Veterans Emergency Housing Program has as
its goal the construction o f moderate and low cost
housing. T o meet this requirement. Federal Housing
Adm inistration has established a “ dividing line” price
for each area. This is a figure below which one-half
o f new home construction is to be channeled. It is
based upon the highest price in the lowest one-third
o f applications received and approved. It is not
applied to any one project but is the goal for an
entire area. The foregoing per-square-foot data in
dicates that the program has not yet had any appre
ciable effect. The trend in square foot costs continues
upward.
Tw o-fam ily dwellings have experienced a 47 per
cent increase in value per-square-foot since 1939, or
the greatest increase for any type o f building. Th e
increase since 1945 has been about 9 percent. Since
this type o f structure now provides only about four
percent o f new dwelling units being built, the increase
is not so im portant. M ore significant, perhaps, is the
fact that the value per-square-foot o f tw o-fam ily
dwellings is now about 2 0 cents more than for owner
occupied one-fam ily houses as com pared to about 50
cents less in 1939. Since it should be more econom ical
to construct tw o-fam ily dwellings than single units,
this trend is difficult to understand, but the persquare-foot cost has been greater every year since 1942
and the margin is steadily increasing. H owever, the
cost for tw o-fam ily dwellings is now about 50 cents
per-square-foot less than for single-family dwellings
built for sale or rent as com pared to 63 cents less in
1939.
The increase in value per-square-foot o f tw o-fam ily
dwellings over 1939 has n ot been uniform throughout
the District. Th e rise in the Cleveland territory has
been only 24 percent whereas in Cincinnati and Pitts
burgh it has soared 55 and 58 percent respectively.
In contrast to the sharp increases in residential
values per square foot, com mercial and manufactur
ing buildings have advanced only about 2 0 percent
since 1939. T h e difference is probably due to more
careful planning and contracting and the need to
hold down im portant com petitive cost factors.
Commercial and
Manufacturing
Projects
T h e accom panying chart shows
the trend o f construction o f
com m ercial and manufacturing
types o f building by number o f
projects in recent years. 1946 is estimated on the
basis o f data for the first four months o f the year.
This procedure yields a greater number o f projects in
each o f these categories than in any year since D odge
data became available in 1920.
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
6
Commercial and Manufacturing Construction
Number of Contracts Awarded
Fourth District
NO. OF PROJECTS
July 1,1946
awarded during the first four months o f the year.
The principal virtue o f extending the first four
months data for a whole year is that it clearly shows
the magnitude o f the burden placed upon the building
industry. It also offers an explanation for the acute
shortages o f construction materials and labor which
are apparent everywhere.
The number o f com m ercial building projects ad
vanced during the prewar years o f 1939-1941 to reach
a level o f about 2,000. Priority control reduced the
number to the 700-800 level b y 1943 and 1944. A p
proxim ately a threefold increase took place in 1945,
with the m ajor part occurring in the last four months
o f the year. Projects for 1946 are estimated at nearly
5,000 or 67 percent greater than 1941.
SOURCE. T. W. DODGE CORf?
*
B A S E D ON F IR S T FOUR MONTHS
It is probable that this procedure widely over
estimates potential construction because o f tw o fac
tors. First, the Civilian Production Adm inistration
at the end o f M a y ordered its field offices to reduce the
dollar valuation o f authorizations to only one-third o f
the volum e authorized for the two week period ending
M a y 23. This curtailment is to be reviewed after 45
days to determine if it can be relaxed. Shortages o f
building materials needed to com plete existing projects
is the reason for this action. Essentiality and nondeferability o f every non-residential project must now
be clearly established. Further evidence o f over
optimism can also be found in the recent reduction in
the number o f priorities being issued for residential
construction. Second, the rush to start projects in
M arch, before strict building controls were instituted,
probably advanced the contract awarding date o f
m any programs and so tends to inflate new contracts
Ir o n a n d
S te e l
T he national rate o f steel ingot production
is recovering rapidly from the effects o f
the coal stoppage. The low point o f
production o f 43 percent o f capacity was reached
during the week o f June 3 according to Steel. B y late
June, a rate o f about 87 percent had been achieved
nationally. Cleveland had advanced from a low o f
61 to 8 8 percent, Pittsburgh from 27 to 8 8 percent,
Y oungstow n from 13 to 78 percent, W heeling from
53 to 8 0 3 ^ 2 percent, and Cincinnati from 82 to 91
percent.
Steel ingot production in M ay was about 4.1 million
net tons as com pared to 7.5 million net tons in the
same month a year ago. In the ten month period
since the war ended in August 1945, the industry has
produced 51.3 million tons o f ingots and steel for
castings as com pared to 73.3 million tons for the cor
responding months a year earlier. This 2 2 million
ton drop goes far in explaining the current steel
shortage.
Pig iron production has also been sharply curtailed
as a result o f the steel and coal strikes. Production
for the first four months o f this year is estimated at
11.8 million tons as com pared to 19.5 million tons in
The effect o f the war can clearly be seen in the
acceleration o f manufacturing plant contract awards
from 1939 through 1942 when the peak o f defense
plant contract placing took place. Since the low
point o f about 1,250 projects in 1943, the number has
again steadily increased and promises to equal or
exceed the 1942 level. It clearly indicates the drive
o f manufacturers to expand their facilities to meet
anticipated postwar demands for goods.
Although the number o f non-residential projects
estimated for 1946 is substantially above the peak o f
1942, the total value is about 38 percent less.
This is true despite the fact that per-square-foot
values have substantially increased since that tim e.
It can be explained in terms o f much smaller plants
being constructed now than during the war when
projects enclosing millions o f square feet were neces
sary to mass produce the tools and materials o f total
war.
SUMMARY
the com parable 1945 period. T h e decline o f 7.7
million tons or 39 percent has seriously interfered
with foundry operations.
The expected increase in the
the cost o f coke and pig iron.
are invoicing shipments on an
final retroactive prices to be
after a study o f the situation.
price o f coal will raise
Sellers o f these items
adjustable basis with
determined b y O P A
Iron and steel scrap is in very short supply and m ay
interfere with rates o f operation unless stock piles
can be renewed in the near future. Industrial plants
which normally provide a large tonnage o f scrap as
a result o f their fabricating activities, have not been
processing as much steel as norm ally due to reduced
operations, thus m aterially curtailing this source o f
supply. O P A has refused to grant an increase in
scrap price ceilings and this action m ay cause sellers
to release scrap stocks held in anticipation o f a price
rise. T he am ount so released, however, will not be
large.
The acute shortage o f flat-rolled steel products
is being met by steel mills through the construction
o f about 1 . 1 million tons o f new sheet and strip capac
ity. T he expansions are scheduled for com pletion by
the end o f the year.
July 1, 1946
A new m otor car manufacturer is attem pting to
solve his needs for additional steel through the pur
chase o f the Portsm outh, Ohio, works o f the W heeling
Steel Corporation. Steel produced there is to be
finished into sheets by another com pany. A large
D istrict producer acquired the 3190 million surplus
Geneva Steel Plant, Geneva, Utah, for 347.5 million.
Th e plant has an annual capacity o f 600,000 tons o f
rolled steel and will serve the west coast market which
is not ordinarily reached by producers in the Fourth
District.
C oal
P r o d u c t io n
Total United States production o f
bituminous coal for the five months
ending June 1946 totaled 185.5 million
net tons as com pared to 250.3 million net tons for the
same period ending June 2, 1945, or a decline o f about
26 percent. The sharp decline was due to the almost
total stoppage o f mining activity during April while in
M a y only about 20 million net tons were produced.
W ith the full resumption o f mining in June, 12.6
million net tons were produced during the first week.
T otal Fourth District production for the first five
months o f this year was 67.6 million net tons as
com pared to 90.8 million net tons for the com parable
period in 1945 or a decrease o f 26 percent. Produc
tion during April and M a y amounted to only 6.3 mil
lion tons.
B y the end o f April, total stocks o f bituminous fuel
had declined about 34 percent below M arch to reach
a level o f only 38.7 million tons. This was the smallest
reserve stock at the end o f April since 1938. As a
consequence, Solid Fuels Adm inistration issued a
stock limitation order on M a y 31 covering coal
produced in all districts in an attempt to distribute
coal equitably to all types o f consumers.
M aintenance o f the present production rate o f
about 1 2 million tons a week for the balance o f the
year would yield a total tonnage o f about 30 million
less than last year or a decline o f only 6 percent. This
assumes continuance o f a six day week and no car
shortages or other factors that might impede produc
tion.
N ew C o a l
A greem en t
The new working agreement signed by
United M ine W orkers C hief John L.
Lewis and the Governm ent on M ay 29
contains provisions which are extremely im portant to
both mine operators and union. The Governm ent
continues in possession o f the mines which were seized
M a y 22 and there is no indication as to when opera
tions might be resumed under private ownership.
A mine safety program has been adopted which con
tains three main parts. First, it is provided that the
D irector o f the United States Bureau o f Mines shall
issue within 30 days a code o f standards and rules per
taining to safety conditions and practices in the mines
and the Coal Mines Adm inistrator (Secretary o f the
Interior) shall put this code into effect immediately.
T he D irector shall formulate the code after consulting
with the U .M .W . and other persons he deems appro
priate. The mine operators apparently have no voice
in preparation o f the safety code and m ay be dis
ciplined or replaced b y the Adm inistrator if Federal
7
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
inspectors report violations o f the safety code. The
code m ay be reviewed from time to time upon request
o f either the A dm inistrator or the U .M .W .
The second part o f the safety program provides that
each mine is to have a safety com m ittee appointed
exclusively by the local union to inspect any develop
ment or equipm ent to determine if it complies with
the safety code. In the event that the com m ittee
believes there is immediate danger to mine workers,
it can require the management to rem ove all personnel
from the mine.
The third part covers workm en’ s com pensation and
occupational disease and provides that in states where
such insurance coverage is optional, owners must
obtain such protection, or be disciplined, or rem oved,
or the mine shut down.
A health and welfare program has also been insti
tuted to be financed by a five-cents-per-ton levy on all
coal produced for sale or use and to be paid entirely
by the operators. The fund is to be administered by
three trustees; one appointed by the union, one by the
Adm inistrator, and one by the other tw o trustees.
The mine owners are not represented. The purposes
o f the fund are very broad. Payments are to be made
from it to miners, their dependents, or survivors for
wages lost due to sickness, tem porary or permanent
disability, death, or retirement. A n y other welfare
activities decided upon by the trustees m ay also be
embarked upon. These benefits are to be in addition
to any now provided by State or Federal Law.
W age deductions currently made for medical care
and hospitalization and administered in the past by
the companies, are now to be turned over to trustees
appointed by the president o f the U .M .W . to be used
at the sole discretion o f the trustees. Existing agree
ments earmarking the uses o f these funds are to be
terminated as soon as possible.
An im portant part o f the health and welfare pro
gram is a survey now being made by the Adm inistrator
with regard to medical, sanitary, and housing con
ditions in all coal mining areas. He is to determine
the scope o f changes needed to bring these up to
American standards. There is no provision for the
financing o f any changes found necessary.
W age rates for all classes o f union members were
increased 31-85 per day to lift weekly wages to 359.25.
W ork on the sixth day is made optional at a rate o f
316.00 to bring the total to 375.25 for a six day week
o f 54 hours.
It is further provided that the entire industry is
to shut down for a one week vacation following the
last pay period in the month o f June. Vacation pay
has been increased from 375.00 to a flat 3100.00 per
man. Despite the coal shortage, the Coal Administra
tor has recently announced a four day “ vacation” for
1946 beginning July 3 with no reduction in the allow
ance. I f miners elect to work this year, regular wages
will be paid in addition to vacation pay, plus time
and one half for the Fourth o f July holiday.
Continued on back cover
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
July 1, 1946
RECENT BANKING DEVELOPMENTS
Commercial Loans The postwar expansion o f com Still Expanding
mercial loans o f weekly report
ing banks o f this District,
which began last O ctober, reached new heights during
the past m onth, as indicated on an accom panying
chart. Since the low point last fall, the 41 reporting
banks have advanced more than 3 1 0 0 million to
business enterprises for working capital and other
corporate purposes. T h at is a net figure after allow
ing for repayments made by other borrowers during
the interval amounting to perhaps another $25 to
350 million. This expansion appears to have been
rather more pronounced in the Fourth D istrict than
in some other reserve districts.
These loans will eventually be terminated, but it
is difficult to imagine a more propitious occasion than
the present for the liquidation o f such inflationary
indebtedness either out o f current incom e or by sale
to other nonbank investors with idle bank balances.
It would be most unfortunate for the econom y as a
whole if this inevitable liquidation should be post
poned until such time when it m ight coincide with
other deflationary developments.
Contraction in
Certificates
and Notes
It is unfortunate from the over-all point o f view that
such collateral loans have not been liquidated more
rapidly. T h ey were condoned originally with the
understanding that borrowers would find it possible
to pick up their securities within six months after
purchase. T h at much time has now elapsed since the
V ictory Loan, yet in the Fourth District as well as
elsewhere such loans to others than brokers are still
substantially greater in volum e than last August.
O f the $260 million outstanding in January, after the
close o f the last war loan, only about 15 percent have
been paid off7, chiefly prior to M ay 1, and since that
date liquidation appears to have come to a halt, at
least temporarily.
O ne
t^e salutary features o f
recent months is the steady contraction o f bank holdings o f certi
ficates o f indebtedness. W hile the
contraction is a direct consequence o f a series o f cash
redemptions o f Treasury issues, the decline was not
limited to those weeks in which redemptions occurred.
Disposition was made o f a considerable quantity o f
certificates and notes during interim weeks. As in
dicated on an adjoining chart, the shrinkage at the
41 weekly reporting banks has am ounted to $450
million during the past four months.
While this process extinguished an equivalent
volum e o f Treasury deposits, the counterinflationary
effect o f this m ovem ent would have been much more
potent if the funds had come out o f the internal revenue
stream rather than out o f the unused balance o f last
D ecem ber’ s borrowing by the Treasury. M oreover,
two-thirds o f the contraction in bank holdings o f short
term securities since V -J D ay has been offset b y a con
current increase in Treasury bond holdings. From the
inflationary angle it m ay be observed that called or
matured certificates and notes need not be replaced
dollar for dollar by Treasury bonds in order to main
tain interest income at a given level. Therefore, some
contraction in m oney supply is possible without
impairment of income from investments. But it
nevertheless would be more beneficial to the general
welfare if acquisitions o f Treasury bonds by the bank
ing system were held to nominal proportions as long
as the com m odity price level displays such a pro
nounced upward trend. During the week o f June 19,
when $1,800 million o f Treasury bonds were paid off,
bond holdings o f the 41 banks were unchanged,
indicating that reporting banks had either sold their
holdings earlier, or that the called bonds were replaced
by other issues.
Postwar Fluctuations In Loans
Postwar Fluctuations In Investments
Although the original im pact o f such lending is
inflationary, if it expedites a commensurate expansion
o f industrial production, the ultimate consequences
are o f a stabilizing nature. I f shortages o f goods are
a m ajor inflationary factor, the use o f bank credit to
finance an increase in output is thoroughly justifiable.
Loans on Government
Securities to Others
Than Brokers
In contrast to com mercial
loans, loans made for the
purpose o f purchasing or
carrying U. S. Governm ent
securities are almost wholly inflationary in character.
T h ey were a more or less legitimate concom itant o f
war finance for such com m itm ents enabled bona fide
investors to anticipate future cash receipts. But now
that the Treasury’ s almost insatiable need for funds
has passed, the situation calls for the m itigation o f
inflationary pressures wherever possible.
Fourth District Weekly Reporting Member Banks
(Cumulative from August 15, 1945)
Continued on back cover
Fourth District Weekly Reporting Member Banks
(Cumulative from August 15, 1945)
July 1, 1946
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
9
CURRENT AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTS
National
Outlook
Over the country as a whole the condition
0f winter wheat improved in the past
month, but most other crops made rela
tively slow progress. The June 20 estimate o f 809
million bushels, plus a spring wheat crop o f over 224
million bushels assures another billion-bushel harvest
— the third consecutive billion-bushel wheat yield with
total production indicated for this year as the third
largest on record. In the Texas-Oklahoma area, wheat
harvesting began about June 1 which is three weeks
earlier than usual. Yields were reported to be better
than expected, and the quality was also above aver
age. W heat from that area began to arrive at midwestern mills by the end o f the second week in June,
but to date receipts have not been in sufficient quantity
to relieve appreciably the current shortage o f wheat for
milling purposes.
Throughout the nation spring plantings were up to
schedule on June 1 , even in the case o f corn. W eather
conditions since then, however, have been such as to
delay the planting o f late corn, and soybeans.
O f the spring grains only oats was above average
condition at last reports. Spring wheat was below
average in condition and the indicated production was
revised to 224 million bushels June 20 from an esti
mated 250 million bushels announced three weeks
previously.
Fruits came through the frost periods with some
what less damage than was originally feared. Ex
clusive o f citrus crops, total production is expected
to be slightly above average and may be ten percent
above that o f the preceding year. Cherry pickings
are expected to be larger than last year and larger than
average. Peaches m ay equal the previous year’ s
record. Present prospects are for a commercial apple
crop somewhat below average.
T h e com mercial early potato crop is estimated to
be the largest on record. Indicated production for
this year com pares as follows with earlier periods:
Commercial Potato Production
1946.........................................................
1945.........................................................
1935-44 A verage..................................
75,000,000 bushels
65,000,000 bushels
49,000,000 bushels
D a iry a n d
^ reduction in the number o f cows has
.
resulted in a moderate decline in milk
P r o d u c t io n
production in each month o f this year
In U . o .
com pared to the corresponding month
o f a year ago. Production in M a y totaled 12.3 billion
pounds, only one percent below the record high for
the month established a year ago. Production per
cow o f 19.2 pounds on June 1 was the highest on
record and was substantially above the previous high
o f 18.6 pounds on the same date in 1945. Favorable
weather, abundant pastures, and liberal feeding o f
grain and concentrate feeds in the country as a whole
was largely responsible for the relatively high milk
production recorded. Although cows are still receiv
ing generous grain and concentrate rations the effects
o f tne tight feed situation are beginning to show.
Daily rations o f 3.6 pounds per head were significantly
below the June 1 average o f the past year o f 4.1
pounds. The greatest decline in rate o f grain and
concentrate feeding occurred in the N orth Atlantic
States, where correspondents reported that they were
feeding one pound less per cow on June 1, than they
did a year ago.
Farm flocks o f the country laid tw o percent fewer
eggs during M a y than they did a year ago. T otal
production for the month however was still 19 per
cent above the ten-year average. Aggregate egg
production for the month however was still 19 perpercent above the same period in 1945 and 31 percent
above the 1935-1944 average. There were approxi
mately 351 million layers on farms in M ay— two per
cent less than in the same month o f the previous year,
but 15 percent above average. Farmers bought and
hatched more chicks than was indicated earlier this
year. In February intended purchases and hatchings
were 14 percent less, but by June 1, actual purchases
and hatchings proved to have been only seven percent
less than a year ago for the season.
Barley and Rye Current crop estimates place this
Shortage
year’ s production o f barley at 231
million bushels, as compared with
264 million in 1945 and a ten-year average o f 290 mil
lion. M oreover, the June 1 carryover o f 52 million was
smallest for the past eight years and was below the
carryover o f a year ago o f 77 million bushels.
N early 300 million bushels o f barley were consumed
during the year ending M a y 31. This is a seven million
below the previous year and 105 million bushels below
the consumption in 1943-44. Average annual dis
appearance for the past ten years has been approxi
m ately 286 million bushels.
Usage o f barley in the past year was divided among
the following:
194 million bushels for
83 million bushels for
19 million bushels for
3 million bushels for
•(Im ports amounted to eight
feed
distilling and brewing
seed
export*
million bushels.)
R ye, too, will be short according to the June 1
estimate, which indicates a crop o f 2 1 million bushels.
W ith but tw o exceptions that would be the smallest
crop since 1881. It is less than half the ten-year
average, and 21 percent below the 1945 crop o f 26
million bushels. The prospect o f more favorable
financial return from other crops caused farmers to
reduce the acreage seeded for all purposes last fall by
nearly one-half. T he acreage to be harvested totals
1,778,000 acres— the smallest acreage in 65 years.
Stocks o f rye are the lowest on record amounting to
million bushels on farms and at terminals. In
fact, the 1.7 million bushels o f rye stocks on farms is
slightly more than ten percent o f the ten-year average
stocks in this position.
R ye disappearance during the year ending M a y 31
totaled 38.5 million as com pared with 46.7 million
during the 1944-45 season and a ten-year average o f
2 .2
10
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
43.7 million bushels. This rye was divided among the
following uses in the quantities indicated:
9.4 million bushels fo r feed
9.0 million bushels for flour
8.5 million bushels for alcohol
6.8 million bushels for export*
4.8 million bushels for seed
*(Im ports amounted to 2.2 million bushels)
Few imports m ay be expected this year as stocks o f
rye throughout the world are short, although Argen
tina m ay have some rye available for export by next
January.
Food Storage
Stocks
T he amount o f food in cold storage
in public warehouses showed a slight
increase in M ay. Cooler occupancy
was up to 77 percent on June 1 from 74 percent M a y 1.
Com m odities in freezer storage were up one percent
from 79 percent M a y 1 . The 80 percent occupancy
on June 1 com pared with 70 percent occu pancy as a
five-year average.
Cream leads the list o f foods o f which storage stocks
have risen. Th e 59 million pounds on June 1 was about
twice the usual amount for that date. Quantities o f
cream m oving into storage during M a y were about
three times normal. In contrast stocks o f other dairy
products were below average— butter at 26 million
pounds was on ly about % o f average; the 1 0 1 million
pounds o f cheese was on ly
o f normal volume.
Eggs m oved into storage at about the normal rate
during M ay. A n in-m ovem ent o f 2.2 million cases
resulted in total holding o f 8.7 million cases at month
end. This is approxim ately 1.5 million cases above
average. Frozen egg stocks totaled 249 million pounds.
On the other hand, poultry holdings declined with a
net withdrawal o f 47 million pounds during M a y as
against a normal withdrawal for the month o f around
13 million pounds.
Stocks o f all meats in storage in public coolers and
freezers were the lowest on record. B eef was a third
below average; pork, slightly more than a third o f
average, and all meats were a fourth less than during
the war years o f 1941-1945.
The out-m ovem ent o f beef was about four times
normal; pork three times normal, and 1 2 million pounds
o f other meat were rem oved from storage com pared to
a normal withdrawal o f one million pounds.
Lard stocks m oved out o f storage contrary to
normal leaving only 47 million pounds in storage
June 1 , which was a record low for the date.
Fertilizer T he N ational Fertilizer Association reSupplies cently pointed out that there is ample
m anufacturing capacity to provide the
quantities o f fertilizer estimated to be necessary in
the crop planting year beginning July 1,1946. Officials
o f the Departm ent o f Agriculture place next year’ s
needs at:
800.000 tons nitrogen in its various forms.
1,850,000 tons available Phosphoric A cid (P 2O 5) mainly in super
phosphate forms.
800.000 tons potash ( K 2O ) — mainly muriate o f potash.
July 1, 1946
Barring labor and transportation handicaps such as
impeded the industry this year (the steel strike alone
caused a loss o f 24,420 tons o f nitrogen) approxim ately
600,000 tons o f nitrogen m ay be expected from
dom estic sources which, if supplemented by imports
o f sodium nitrate from Chile equal to at least 100,000
tons and 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 tons o f nitrogen in the form o f
ammoniates and cyanam ide from Canada, would equal
estimated requirements.
W ith the close o f hostilities superphosphate pro
duction zoom ed upward because ordnance sulphuric
acid was diverted from munitions to superphosphate
output. It is estimated that during the past twelve
months about 1,500,000 tons o f available P 2 O 5 in
various concentrations o f superphosphate were pro
duced. Consequently if G overnm ent sulphuric acid
plants are kept in operation and their output used for
superphosphate there is a strong possibility that the
tonnage produced would be even greater in the year
beginning July 1. A tonnage o f 1,850,000 o f P 2 O 5 does
not appear im probable with present facilities plus
those now under construction.
Potash output is now running at a rate o f 900,000
tons annually. O f this am ount, industry uses approxi
mately 100,000 tons and exports to Canada and other
W estern Hemisphere countries total about 65,000
tons, leaving 725,000 tons for dom estic fertilizer usage.
W ith plants operating at near peak capacity there is
little prospect o f the tonnage being increased. Th e
reopening o f the European potash mines does give
some slight prospect o f limited imports within the year.
Thus on the whole it appears that there will be
sufficient fertilizer to permit consum ption equal to or
in excess o f the record usage o f 13,200,000 tons on
main land farms o f this country in the calendar year
o f 1945.
Th e present favorable price relationship o f fertilizer
to the other items a farmer uses in the production o f
crops m ay stimulate even greater usage. Fertilizer
prices this spring were only 2 1 percent higher than
they were in the 1910-1914 base period, while the
average price o f all com m odities a farmer buys were
80 percent above the base period level.
Im portance o f present fertilizer usage to food
production is emphasized b y the fact that if no
fertilizer were used 50 million more acres o f good crop
land would be required to grow the food now produced.
Fourth District
Outlook Less
Favorable
Fourth D istrict crop prospects are
less favorable than elsewhere. T he
indicated production o f winter
wheat is below last year in all
Fourth D istrict states except K entucky, and below
the ten-year average in all but Ohio. Corn is o ff to a
poor start over much o f the area. Excessive rains
delayed planting and seriously retarded cultivation.
M an y fields are weedy and m ay not receive normal
attention because hay making is at hand.
Continued on back cover
11
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
July 1, 1946
Indexes of DepartmentStore Sales and Stocks
(D a ily A vera ge fo r 1935-1939 “
SA LE S:
A k ron ( 6 ) ......................
C a n ton ( 5 ) ...................
C incinnati ( 9 ) .............
C leveland ( 1 0 ) ............
C olu m bu s ( 5 ) .............
Erie ( 3 ) ..........................
Pittsburgh ( 8 ) .............
Springfield ( 3 ) .............
T o le d o ( 6 ) ....................
W h eelin g ( 6 ) ...............
Y o u n gstow n ( 3 ) ____
D istrict ( 9 8 ) ................
(000 om itted)
A d ju sted
W ith o u t
fo r Seasonal V ariation Seasonal A d ju stm en t
A p r.
M ay
M ay
A p r.
M ay
1946
194S
1946
1946
1945
M ay
1946
279
309
252
241
293
253
219
245
229
211
272
245
243
279
269
207
290
229
227
255
221
225
256
236
Fourth District Business Statistics
100
217
219
180
176
211
207
157
209
181
159
208
179
271
296
257
227
285
238
228
254
229
225
266
243
264
290
275
238
292
245
243
268
241
243
282
253
210
211
183
165
205
195
163
217
181
170
204
177
STOCKS:
%
change
from
1945
M ay
1946
F ourth D istrict Unless
O therw ise Specified
R etail Sales:
3
3
3
C om m ercial Failures— L iabilities..............
3
3
P rod u ction :
Pig Iron— U. S............................ N et tons
Steel In g ot— U. S....................... N et tons
B itum inous C oal—
O ., W . Pa., E. K y . .................... N et tons
C em ent— 0 . , W . Pa.. W . V a . . . . Bbls.
Electric Power—
O .P a ., K y ........... Th ou san d K .W .H .
A pril
1946
59,514
2,262
4,326
a
a
1,010
7
+37
+22
+51
a
a
+ 1 ,0 4 7 .
+75
62,105
2,107
4,059
68,328
31,024
34
3
2,275
4.072
-5 5
-4 5
3,614
5,877
5,500
a
-7 2
a
774
1.080
a
a
2,596
a N ot available.
D is t r ic t ..........................
192
178
162
194
183
164
Bank Debits During May
Wholesale and Retail Trade
(29 Fourth D istrict Cities)
(1946 com pared w ith 1945)
P ercentage
Increase o r D ecrease
SALES SALES STO C K S
A m on g the ten largest cities in the F ou rth D istrict (as show n on the ac
c o m p a n y in g table) on ly five reported an increase in bank debits o v e r M a y 1945
T o l e d o w ith debits o f 3283 m illion fo r th e m onth was first w ith an increase
o f som e 1 3 % o v e r last year. T h e next nearest was C o l u m b u s w ith a 9 .6 %
gain o v e r a year ago. C i n c i n n a t i , D a y t o n , and E r ie w ere the o n ly o th e r
large cities to report a net increase in the volu m e o f m oney transfers, as m eas
ured b y debits to deposit accounts.
A m on g the sm aller cities o f the D istrict, Z a n e s v il le held to p rank again
w ith a nearly 4 0 % expan sion in debits o v e r M a y 1945. T h is was the fifth
co n secu tive m onth in w hich the percentage increase in Zan esville was the
largest in the D istrict.
D ebits have also held to a high level in L o r a i n where the increase o v er a
year ago was nearly 3 2 % .
P o r t s m o u t h , w here debits exceeded 316 m illion in M a y fo r the first tim e
on record , was third w ith a percentage m argin o f n early 3 0 % o v e r 1945.
(In thousands o f dollars)
%
M ay
1946
A L L 29 C E N T E R S ..................
35,068,595
ch an ge
fro m
year ago
-
1 .2
3 m onths % change
ended
fro m
M a y 1946 year ago
315,361,472
+
3 .1
10 LA R G E ST C E N TE R S:
A k r o n .............................O hio
C a n to n ...........................O hio
C in cin n a ti.................... O hio
C le v e la n d ..................... O h io
C o lu m b u s ..................... O h io
D a y t o n .......................... O h io
T o le d o ............................O hio
Y o u n g sto w n .................O hio
E r ie ................................. Penna.
P ittsb u rg h ....................Penna.
T o t a l........................................
3
210,914
83,392
5 .2
5 .0
617,312
238,363
2 .3
2 185,319
1,357,378
408,908
169,560
283,269
9 3 ,570
67,824
1,274,754
- 4 .7
+ 9 .6
+ 6 .8
+ 1 3 .3
- 1 .4
+ 5 .4
— 8 .6
3,947,426
1,195,885
519,616
834,954
280,920
191,881
4,004,607
34,618,406
- ‘ 2 .2
314,016,283 J + T ! ?
3
+ 2 0 .1
+ 2 0 .3
+ 0 .9
+ 8 .9
+ 3 1 .6
+ 7 .1
+ 3 .4
+ 2 9 .5
+ 1 0 .3
+ 6 .4
+ 1 3 .4
+ 3 9 .4
+ 5 .6
+ 2 0 .6
+ 7 .8
+ 1 5 .8
+ 1 0 .0
+ 1 .5
+ 0 .6
3
668,837
-
+
,
-
3 .6
8 .2
+ 13.4
- 2 .8
+ 1 2 .0
+ 1 2 .6
+ 1 2 .3
+ 3 .4
+ 2 .3
— 1 .8
19 O T H E R C E N T E R S :
L im a .
Oil C i t y ..................
S h a ron ....................
W h eelin g. . . . . . .
K y.
.K y .
. Ohio
.O h io
•O hio
.O h io
.O h io
.O h io
.O h io
.O h io
.O h io
.O h io
. Penna.
. Penna.
, Penna.
. Penna.
. Penna.
, Penna.
W . V a.
3
32,748
42,273
25,074
31,593
12,249
26,718
23,609
16,238
36,510
18,114
28,683
19,726
23,332
7,257
14,113
6,399
18,201
18,221
49,131
450,189
+ 1 0 .7
97,372
140,529
78,095
92,536
35,419
79,161
71,826
47,237
109,306
54,331
80,511
59,216
68,606
19,992
43,764
18,529
51,872
54,392
142,495
+ 6.6
3 1,345,189
+ 1 1 .7
+ 2 6 .3
+ 1 8 .8
+11.2
+ 2 .5
+ 3 0 .9
+ 7 .9
+ 1 4 .9
+ 3 0 .9
+ 8.1
+ 1 0 .5
+ 5 .4
+ 4 2 .3
-
1.6
+ 6.6
+ 1 4 .7
+ 1 7 .1
- 0 .7
+ 4 .8
M ay
1946
first 5
m onths
M ay
1946
D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S (98)
A k r o n ...................................................................... ..
C a n to n ......................................................................
C in cin n a ti................................................................
C lev ela n d .................................................................
C olu m b u s................................................................. .
E rie ............................................................................. .
P ittsbu rgh .................................................................
Springfield.................................................................
T o l e d o ....................................................................... .
W h e e lin g .................................................................. .
Y o u n g s to w n ............................................................ .
Other C itie s ..............................................................
D is t r ic t .................................................................... .
+29
+42
+40
+37
+39
+22
+40
+17
+27
+33
+31
+49
+40
+15
+18
+30
+24
+26
+15
+31
+14
+17
+27
+21
+30
+25
+13
a
+14
+21
+11
+17
+18
a
+18
+23
a
+ 3
+16
W E A R I N G A P P A R E L (15)
C in cin n a ti..................................................................
C le v e la n d ...................................................................
P ittsbu rgh ..................................................................
Other C itie s...............................................................
D is trict........................................................................
+14
+39
+32
+10
+22
+ 8
+30
+23
+ 5
+16
-1 1
- 4
+ 9
+16
+ 4
F U R N I T U R E (70)
C a n to n ........................................................................
C in cin n a ti..................................................................
C le v e la n d ...................................................................
C o lu m b u s...................................................................
D a y t o n ........................................................................
P ittsb u rg h ..................................................................
A llegheny C o u n t y .................................................
T o le d o ....................................................................... .
O ther C itie s ...............................................................
D istrict........................................................................
a
+64
+51
+48
+77
+39
+45
+50
+56
+51
a
+56
+41
+50
+76
+38
+52
+66
+60
+51
a
+30
+26
+24
+62
- 8
+69
+23
+48
+ 2
+24
+53
+55
+ 2
+49
+19
a
+ 6
+24
+28
+49
—0 “
+23
+52
a
a
a
a
+36
+10
+38
+18
+24
+11
+22
a:
a
+95
- 3.
+ r
+37
+36
a
+52
+15
-5 3
a
+45
a
a
a
+44
+32
+27
W H OLESALE T R A D E **
A u to m o tiv e Supplies ( 7 ) ......................................
Beer ( 5 ) ......................................................................
C on fection ery ( 5 ) ....................................................
Drugs and D ru g Sundries ( 4 ) ............................
D ry G oods ( 3) ........................................................
Fresh Fruits and Vegetables ( 1 1 ) ....................
G rocery G rou p ( 3 9 ) ...............................................
T o ta l H ardware G rou p ( 2 2 ) ...............................
General H ardware ( 6 ) .......................................
Industrial Supplies ( 6 ) ......................................
Plum bing and H eating Supplies ( 1 0 ) . , . .
Jew elry ( 1 0 ) ..............................................................
L u m ber and Building M aterials ( 6 ) ...............
M ach in ery, E quip. & Sup. (exc. E lect.) ( 4 ).
M eats and M eat Produ cts ( 4 ) ...........................
M etals ( 3 ) ..................................................................
Paints and Variyshes ( 4 ) ......................................
Paper and Its_ Produ cts ( 6 ) .................................
T o b a c c o and its Produ cts ( 1 5 ) ..........................
M iscellaneous ( 1 7 ) ..................................................
D istrict— All W holesale T ra d e (1 7 2 ) .............
+66
+12
+51
+36
+20
- 2
+79
+93
+32
+15
+44
+26
+30
a
a
a
+78
+39
* * W holesale data com piled b y U. S. D epartm en t o f C om m erce, Bureau o f
the Census.
a N o t available.
Figures in parentheses in dica te num ber o f firm s reportin g sales.
12
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
RECENT BANKING DEVELOPMENTS
(Continued from Page 8)
Postwar Fluctuations In Deposits
Fourth District Weekly Reporting Member Banks
(Cumulative from August 15, 1945)
M
A
-
M
1946-
u. S. Governm ent deposits at
weekly reporting banks have de
clined steadily during the past
four months, and are destined to drop below the low
o f O ctober 1945 within a com paratively short time
in the course o f the Treasury’ s debt reduction program.
In its early phases the transfer o f funds incident to
the redemption o f Treasury issues seems to have had
no noticeable effect upon the volume o f demand de
posits o f individuals, partnerships, and corporations.
However, during the past two months, those deposits
have risen quite rapidly in the Fourth District with
the unfavorable result that the supply o f this kind o f
m oney is within easy reach o f the all-time high o f
M a y 1945.
This recent rise in demand deposits is not wholly
the result o f public debt liquidation. Some o f it is
attributable to an inflow o f funds from outside the
District. The expansion o f commercial and consumer
loans, the acquisition o f Treasury bonds, as well as
the suspension o f liquidation o f collateral loans men
tioned earlier, are all partly responsible for the re
expansion in demand deposits. Unless there is a
reversal in the near future, the increase in demand
balances since V -J D ay will soon have exceeded the
slow but steady rise in time deposits, as indicated
graphically elsewhere on this page. As o f today, the
increase in time and demand deposits is approxim ately
equal to the drop in Governm ent deposits at reporting
banks in the Fourth District.
Rise in Demand
Deposits
NEW MEMBER BANK
Safe Deposit and Title Guaranty C om pany
Kittanning, Pennsylvania
INDUSTRIAL SUMMARY
{Continued from Page 7)
W ith regard to the bargaining status o f forem en
and other supervisory personnel, the Coal Adm inistra
tor has agreed to be guided by the decisions and pro
cedure established by the N ational L abor Relations
Board. Inasmuch as this body has already recog
nized foremen’ s unions, this means that supervisory
July 1, 1946
personnel presumably will be organized along the lines
demanded by U .M .W .
Brick and
Tile
T he brick and tile industry is the
recipient o f the first premium payment
plan authorized under the Pattman A ct
to increase output o f building materials. The plan
is designed to bring about greater production o f all
types o f com m on and face brick, unglazed structural
clay tile, and structural facing tile.
A quota is to be established for each individual
plant. The quota for each plant (operating any three
full months in 1946, prior to June 1) will be the arith
metical average o f production in the tw o highest months
or 90 percent o f production during the highest m onth,
whichever is lower. Plants which were in operation
less than three months but at least tw o full months
during 1946, will have a quota o f 90 percent o f the
production in the highest month. Established plants
which have not been in production between June 1,
1945 and M a y 31, 1946, will have a quota o f tw othirds o f whatever amount is now produced.
N ew plants will make individual application to
obtain their quotas which m ay not be less than 50
percent o f total output. I f evidence appears later
that operators o f two or more plants are shifting
production in order to increase their subsidy pay
ments, the housing expediter can establish a blanket
quota for the entire operation.
The subsidy or “ incentive paym ents” will amount
to five dollars for each 1,000 standard brick equiva
lents payable on all production in excess o f the quotas
established by the foregoing procedure. T he regula
tion is retroactive to June 1, and terminates June 1,
1947.
Current Agricultural Developments
(iContinued, from Page 9)
Condition o f the hay crop was better than average
on June 1 but much o f it still remained to be harvested
at the end o f the third week o f the month. Pasture
and small grains prospects provided the only two
bright spots in the feed situation. Pasture condition
was at least ten percent better than average. Oats,
barley and rye prospects are almost universally better
than last year and in m any cases above the ten year
average.
Pennsylvania and W est Virginia will have more
peaches than last year but less than average. While
K entucky expects less than last year the crop on the
• basis o f present condition will be nearly 50 percent
more than normal. On the other hand Ohio expects
a peach crop o f less than 40 percent o f normal.
Kentucky is the only state in the District where the
probable apple crop will be up to average. Both Penn
sylvania and W est Virginia expect below-average crops,
but the crop in prospect in Pennsylvania will probably
exceed that harvested in 1945. Prospects in Ohio are
for less than half a normal apple harvest. The pear
crop in Ohio and Pennsylvania will be decidedly
below average and just short o f average in K entucky
and W est Virginia.
Kentucky, the only state where com mercial early
potatoes are grown to any extent, has prospects for an
excellent crop.
@FedFRASER