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T h e M o n t h ly BUSINESS REVIEW Business industrial conditions in Covering and the fourth Federal Reserve District FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND D . C . W i l l s , C h a i r m a n o f ifae B o a r d (COMPILED DECEMBER 20, 1922) V( L. 5 CLEVELAND, OHIO, JANUARY 1, 1923 Time is a great healer, and the year 1922 has been a great business healer. After a thorough house clean ing, business is beginning to reap the benefits o f more efficient management. Present conditions seem to in dicate that we are just entering the healthiest period in the business cycle. The past year has brought many changes in business, and most of them have been for the better. Just a few comparisons with conditions a year ago serve to illustrate the encouraging results produced by the year’s activities. At this time last year, iron and steel production was hovering around 50 per cent o f normal, and the industry experienced considerable difficulty in holding its own at that figure. Today it is reported to be in a better position than at any time during the past two years. When winter ended lake shipping a year ago, shipments showed a heavy loss. Final re turns for the season just closed indicate big gains. Homes have been built. Construction has extended to investment types and is continuing in heavy volume in spite o f winter weather. In December, 1921, the coal industry was face to face with the possibility o f a railroad strike. This industry at the present time, although still handicapped by lack of shipping facili ties, is gradually recovering from the effects o f the coal miners’ strike and the heavy demand is being fairly well supplied. With the large production of principal farm crops and the advance in farm product prices, conditions in the agricultural sections are grow ing brighter. These are only a few of the changes for the better which have taken place, and when cognizance is taken o f the obstacles whch have been met, they are especially encouraging. The human or emotional element is too often over looked in business calculations. Feeling that if we better knew how people were traveling, were ordering their meals, being amused, and doing their Christmas shopping, we would better know whether we are enter ing the new year with greater sanity, we made a sur vey o f the travel bureaus and steamship agencies, the hotels, the theaters, and the department stores, and discovered some very interesting facts. The travel bureaus say that previously people were No. 1 more restless; they wanted to travel and they did, irrespective o f rates or routes. Now, people are using more discrimination concerning their destinations, they want to assure themselves that they are choosing ex actly what meets their needs and pocketbooks. In a good many cases they choose to travel under Pull man tourist rates instead o f the standard rates. The railroad fare is the same. The Pullman standard rate to California, for instance, is $23.00; the tourist rate is $17.00. The difference is in the fact that the Pull man is upholstered in better plush, the porters probably more attentive, the service throughout a bit better. But many people choose the other, preferring to save the difference. The steamship agencies report that people are more conservative in their choice of transportation. During the inflationary period, price was the standard by which things were chosen. They had money and no matter what price the rooms were, they wanted them, for they seemed to think that the more expensive the rooms, the more they were getting for their money. Rooms at any price was their cry. Now, while they still seek for comfort and luxury, they go slower and look about and compare and try to find if they can’t get this comfort for a little less expense. They don’t seem to feel as they did, that price is the standard. They used to feel if a thing was expensive, that made it good, and they wanted it, price being no object. People traveling by steamer have shown a tendency lately to choose one class steamers. That is, boats which do not distinguish between first, second, and third class. That they do not seem to be so feverish about ‘•'getting there” is evidenced by this. The extra seven or eight days on the water is chosen by them, with the consequent saving o f money, to taking a faster boat and one more expensive. The hotels state that it is difficult to get data on the daily ordering o f meals, but it has been noticed that traveling men study the menu more closely than previously, and do not order the most expensive dishes in the profusion which they once did. People deciding to have dinner parties are more inclined to “ shop around” than before. Formerly when they wished a dinner party they merely gave THE 2 MONTHLY BUSINESS an order. Now they prepare a sample menu and send it to the different hotels, ask for bids, and compare the prices before they decide. Neither are they inclined to entertain as elaborately as they did heretofore. The theater managers say that their patrons are harder to satisfy, and are demanding better plays and features. Nine months ago a change was noted from the hysterical to the more sane type o f entertainment. Since that time there lias been more shopping at the box office. Formerly the most frequent request heard at the box office was, “ Give me the best seat in the house.” Today the query is, “ What’s the price of orchestra seats, o f front row balcony, etc.” While the Christmas shopping purchases in Cleveland department stores are running from ten to twenty per cent greater than last Christmas season, there is less freakish and foolish buying. Shoppers are buying with better judgment, and are choosing the more useful and practical articles with more interest in the quality mark. REVIEW There was considerable fear that the millions o f dollars to be released through the redemption of W ar S a v ings Stamps and the Victory Notes, redeemed Dec. 15 together with the cashing of Christmas savings club checks might cause difficulty. To date, however, our information is that much of the money released is be ing re-invested in Government or first-class securities or being deposited in savings accounts. The latter seems to have been largely spent sanely and judiciously, fo r substantial gifts, clothing, and food necessities. I f this is a true reflection o f the attitude o f the general public, the new year can be entered with m uch confidence and with little o f the fear which has at tended the beginning of the past two years. These re flections would indicate that there is less danger that the effect on the public of greater prosperity will in duce the extravagances and hectic conditions of 1918 and 1919. Accommodations Grow As Business Expands; Savings Accounts Show Gain Accommodations extended to city banks have shown a considerable increase during the month ending De cember 20. A gain o f approximately $9,000,000 was shown as compared with a $3,000,000 increase the previous month. Near the close o f November, loans were about $ 5 ,000,000 higher than they were on the 2 0 th o f this month. This advance in the demand for accommodations may be attributed to the general expansion o f business, to the usual seasonal demands o f holiday trade, and to the fact that many lines o f industry are operating on heavier production schedules than are usual at this time of year. As we stated last month, however, the general expansion has not yet called for a proportion ate amount o f accommodation from the banks. Country bank borrowings for the month ending De cember 20 have shown a gradual upward trend. Total loans for the month amounted to slightly more than $2,000,000. One o f the principal features in this situ ation is the buying o f cattle for fattening purposes. The redemption o f Victory Notes up to December 20 in the Fourth District amounts to approximately $30,000,000. More funds will be released with the redemption of additional Victory Notes not yet turned in and W ar Savings Stamps maturing December 31. Ih e natural result is that holiday trade lias been ma terially benefitted, for many people have been looking forward to the receipt of these funds. It would seem unwise, therefore, to overlook the fact that at least a part of the expansion is caused by the release o f these funds and cannot be looked upon as permanent The reserve ratio of this bank and also o f th e System has shown a decline during the past month ending December 20. On December 20 the reserve of this bank was 68.9 per cent as compared with 7 3.7 per cent for the same date a month ago. The reserve ratio of the System was 72.8 per cent on December 20 as compared with 77.1 per cent on November 20. The combined reports o f 18 representative banks in the Fourth District for the month o f November show a further increase in savings accounts. November d e posits as compared with those for the same month last year show a gain of 4.3 per cent. The gain for N ovem ber over the previous month was 1.1 per cent. The acceptance market situation is practically the same as it was a month ago when we reported a c o n siderable improvement, due to the advance in interest rates. Prospects in Iron and Steel Industry Better Than at Any Time in Two Years; Pig Iron Production Highest Since November 1920 , Underlying strength of the iron and steel situation has been reflected more clearly as the year comes to a close. Prices throughout the market are better stab ilized than at any time in some months and operations having risen gradually for a number o f weeks are now well maintained on the basis of 80 to 85 per cent o f capacity. The basis for this strength o f the situation lies in the volume o f unfilled business on the books o f the steel companies against first quarter production. In several lines, notably steel bars, sheets, wire prod ucts, rails, and tin plates, leading producers have only a relatively small fraction of their first quarter output unsold and a good volume o f current business continues to be placed. Although some of the heavier lines are not so liberally sold up, new business of this character is encouraging and some of the price softness w hich related to these latter products, recently seems to b e disappearing. Steel Corporation mills on the general average appear to be in a little more fortunate position or uture business than the independent companies due to their policy of holding prices in check during e past several months. At the beginning of the new lz-month period the iron and steel industry throu^hout shows better prospects than at any time in tw o years. Another encouraging symptom of current consump THE MONTHLY BUSINESS tive requirements and the outlook for the future has been manifested by the recent buying of pig iron which has been in extraordinary volume. Transactions in pig iron for the first half of December, as now compiled, have aggregated more than 1,000,000 tons. Since then, several hundred thousand tons additional have been placed. Practically all o f this buying has been for first quarter delivery, since up to recently, no iron for 1923 use had been placed. All the leading iron con sumers in the country, including cast iron pipe, radiator, sanitary ware, and machinery manufacturers o f all kinds, have been represented in the buying movement, and apparently have been covering against the expectation of better production during the next three months. Prices of pig iron having yielded $2 to $3 per ton under the offering o f attractive tonnage business by buyers, have stiffened during the past week or so and now are 50 cents to $1 per ton higher. This seems to indicate that the low point of the market has been reached and passed. The reaction in prices is well illustrated by the Iron Trade Review composite of 14 leading iron and steel products. For the first time in 13 weeks this single average turned upward in the week of Decem ber 21 when it stood at $40.50. This figure compared with $40.23 one week, $40.69 two weeks, $41.23 three weeks and $41.78 four weeks previously. The year’s peak in prices according to the composite was reached in the last week of September, and from that point until the third week in December a steady decline has been witnessed. This fall o f the market was largely due to the gradual readjustment o f conditions follow ing the sharp upturn o f costs in producing iron and steel in August and September, caused by the effects of the coal strike. Coke prices from a high point o f $13 to $14 per ton at that time, now declined to $7 but are much firmer at that level. Automotive interests have been buying steel freely REVIEW 3 against production demands for the first quarter of 1923, and this has added considerable tonnage to mill books, especially in the more highly finished lines. Building work has kept up reasonably well considering the season. Structural steel awards in November were 99,040 tons, which was equivalent to 46.8 per cent o f the fabricating shop capacity o f the country. This brings the 11 months’ total awards to 1,460,000 tons, indicating those for the full year will exceed 1.500.000 tons. This will be the largest total of struc tural steel awards for any single year since complete statistics were first compiled, running back to 1913. Railroad buying of equipment has kept to a satisfac tory basis. Car awards in November by domestic roads totaled approximately 18,500 bringing the total o f the year to date to approximately 157,000 cars. This figure represents more than seven times the total for 1921 and so far as strictly domestic business goes, it has been exceeded only once since 1912. A t the present time Chicago mills have protections outstanding on 500,000 tons of steel covering more than 46,000 cars now under inquiry. Iron and steel production in November continued to show some gain, though this was on a less frac tional rate. The total output of pig iron for Novem ber as compiled by Iron Trade Review was 2,845,595 tons against 2,629,655 tons in October. Daily produc tion was 94,853 tons in November compared with 84,827 tons in October. Furnaces in blast the last day o f November were 240, a gain o f 22 stacks over the corresponding date in October. This is 'the highest number o f furnaces active since November, 1920. The total production, also, is the highest since that date. Steel ingot production in November showed little change from October and was at the rate of 39,495,000 tons annually. The annual rate in October was 39,265.000 tons. The indicated annual rate of output in (November was equivalent to 90.5 per cent of the rec ord output of the country for all times in 1917. Agricultural Slump World-Wide; Farm Prices Increasing; Special Article on Poultry and Eggs In connection with our agricultural plight for the past two years, a very interesting pamphlet has just reached our desk, postmarked Cape Town, South Africa, dated October 31, 1922. Others have reached our attention from Java, Japan, Denmark, and Great Britain. A paragraph from the Cape Town report reads, “ While wages in other industries continue today, if not at the highest war-time rates, at least at levels which exhibit considerable inflation when compared with the pre-war basis, it follows that the farmer is at present laboring under a considerable disadvantage, inasmuch as he is compelled to pay for necessary goods and ma terials, prices inflated by high wages paid for their manufacture, whereas he is receiving a return for <his own produce on a basis o f pre-war values. The prob lem is not peculiar to South Africa, but is o f world wide application at the present day. A recent press cable states that in Great Britain farmers o f all classes and in all districts are in serious financial straits, and that failing means of adjusting outlay to revenue, large numbers will be driven out of business. In the United States o f America, also, the matter has been under investigation by a Government Commission.” This report on agricultural conditions in far-away Africa reads as though describing our own agricultural situation, and further impresses the fact that the chaos from which the American farmer is slowly emerging was world-wide and by no means confined to the United States. The value o f the principal farm crops raised in Ohio this year reaches a total o f $230,000,000, accord ing to the State-Federal Crop Reporting Service. This is an average o f about $900 for each o f Ohio’s 257,000 farms. Statistics are not available on the total value o f livestock produced this year, but the number o f ani mals sold will be greater than last year and since live stock prices are from 15 to 60 per cent more than last year, it is safe to say that the products of the Ohio farm, including both crops and livestock, will be worth 4 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS this year more than 20 per cent above the value of last year’s farm output. Corn leads in value at $100,000,000, with hay a somewhat distant second at $52,000,000. The wheat crop o f the State amounts to $40,000,000 and the oats crop to $17,000,000. The potato crop is estimated at $10,000,OCX), and the tobacco crop at $7,000,000. Fruit crops and a number o f crops o f minor im portance are not included in the estimated total of $230,000,000. The values in this estimate are based on the State average prices prevailing on November 15. Ohio has stood in sixth place for the last three years in the production o f corn and is in fifth place this year in respect to wheat. In hay, Ohio is ex ceeded by only two states and it is fifth in tobacco. The marked extent to which farm prices have in creased during the last year is shown by the November price report. Corn is 60 per cent higher with an aver age price o f 65 cents for the State, while a year ago the average was 40 cents a bushel. Hogs average al most $8.00 per hundred pounds as compared with $7.00 at this time last year. Beef cattle are selling, taking the State as a whole, at $6.50, which is exactly $1.00 a hundred above the price paid farmers a year ago. W ool is twice as high and now sells at an average of 42 cents a pound. Sheep have shown a remarkable recovery from $3.30 a year ago to $5.50 today and lambs have jumped from $6.85 to $10.65. In fact all farm products show an increase with the exception o f hay and potatoes ( per hundred pounds.) Potatoes are selling on the average in small lots from the farm at 94 cents a bushel and in large lots prices as low as 50 cents are reported. These increases reflect the increased demand for farm products. The marketing season in the burley tobacco district for the 1922 crop has opened. The independent loose leaf floors at Lexington started their sales o f non pooled tobacco on November 27. The Burley Tobac co Growers’ Co-operative Association opened its ware houses for the receipt o f this year’s crop on December 11. The sales on the loose leaf floors have been bring ing very favorable prices and the average o f the Lex ington houses probably is somewhere in the neighbor hood of 30 cents a pound. This is considerably higher than the average for last season. The Association is making advances to the members upon delivery and coming at this time, this will put some Christmas money in the hands o f the members. The Association has recently completed the sale o f its holdings o f 1921 tobacco, and as soon as all o f this tobacco is delivered and settlement made, the Asssociation can compute the amounts due each member and final payment will then be made to the growers for the 1921 crop. This probably will be some time after the first o f the year. Due to weather conditions during the growing season, the 1922 crop is small and in view o f the fact that the 1921 crop also was a short crop, it is generally believed that the Burley Associa tion will dispose of the 1922 crop in a comparatively short time. The crop is o f splendid quality and is sure to bring satisfactory prices. The Dark Tobacco Growers’ Co-operative Associa REVIEW tion, which has recently been organized in western Kentucky, is actively engaged in completing its plans for the receiving and handling of the 1922 crop. Special Article on Poultry and Eggs, Prepared b y the Ohio Division of Markets Ohio is one of the large chicken raising and e g g producing states. This is an industry to which many farmers look for a source of revenue. This has become particularly true during the past few years when other commodities, and particularly the products o f the soil, have shown a tendency to becom e a means o f less encouraging returns for the labor in volved. As a result more people have turned to the raising of livestock and chickens. Small farms can be found in the vicinity of every urban center where poultry constitutes one of the chief, if not the ch ie f industry. There has been a belief in the minds of some e x tensively engaged in the business, that the rapid turn toward the production o f poultry and eggs mio-ht lead to an over-supply 0f the commodities and b n n *r about such an increase in the stock that they would flood the market and become a liability rather than an asset, even though there were no increase in demand Statistics secured by the Ohio Division of Markets of the State Department of Agriculture disapprove any apprehension which may be felt along such lines They definitely demonstrate two things. First, there has been an increase in the supply of both poultry a n d eggs during the year; there has likewise been an enhanced demand and greater consumption, so that th e amount in stock on December 1, 1922, was less a s in o !16 *°ta^ ^res.sed poultry than on the same dateJ? 1921, and but a little greater as to eggs. But o n e ’ solution fits such a situation and this is a heartier appreciation on the part of the public as to the value of chickens and eggs as sustaining articles of fo o d which brings with it a constantly increasing consumpton The four big poultry and egg markets of the cou n try are New York, Chicago, Boston, and Philadelpma. New York is the largest, and a good part of the production from this state finds a readv sale in these cities. This is particularly true as to white eggs, for which New York people seem to have an unusual fondness. No small number o f producers in Ohio send their entire supply of eggs with a whitish shell to dealers in that city, receiving a substantial price and finding a market always ready to purchase During the months from January 1 , of this vear' to December 1, the receipts of eggs at these to u r centers have been 14,844,740 cases. These w e r l divided among the cities in the way given b e l o w ' ^ W1 oi°Qr r ^ ’ ’ !30T, cases: Chicago 4,650,350; B o s ton 1,918,662; and Philadelphia 1.651 963 The rJ ceipts ; *h? s ame months in 1921 for these placed v Crf l l u & l l Cases’ dlstributed as follows: X e ,v i u ri i 1^ ’ Ch,caS° 4,068,833; Boston 1.781,859Philadelphia 1,599,380. The increase, therefore, fo r ’ the present year was 978,630 cases. This might cause poultry raisers some little apnre hension, were it not for the fact that the increase THE MONTHLY BUSINESS cold storage supplies has been far less, when com pared with the receipts. On December 1 o f this year, there were 1,571,847 cases placed away for consump tion in these four places. They represented the accumu lation since January 1. In 1921 at the same time, the total was 1,074,569 or 497,278 cases less. This year the cases held in storage were: New York 557,994; Chicago 765,137; (Boston 141,052; Philadel phia 107,664. In 1921 the division was as follows: New York 488,730; Chicago 388,471; Boston 131,535; Philadelphia 84,833. The comparatively slight increase in cold storage, compared with the much higher advance in receipts, indicates that eggs are more than holding their own. Housewives who buy them on the market can readily testify to this. An even more satisfactory condition surrounds poultry, for here, while the receipts have been heavier this year, the amount in cold storage is considerably less. From January 1, 1922, to Decem ber 1, the receipts at these four leading centers were 217,412,978 pounds, distributed in this way: New York 111,816,096; Chicago 53,277,166; Boston 33,767,912; Philadelphia 16,552,924. For a similar REVIEW 5 period in 1921, at the same places, there were 204,538,681 pounds received, the different markets taking these amounts: New York 103,270,755; Chicago 51,508,642; Boston 31,843,700; Philadelphia 17,915,584. T o affect any concern which the increase of 2,874,297 pounds might occasion, the decrease in cold storage, testifying to a larger consumption, is given. The present number o f pounds held in storage is 41,468,417, o f which New York has 17,461,547; Chicago 18,220,667; Boston 5,368,214; Philadelphia 2,417,389. In 1921, at the storage houses, there were 52,308,664 pounds held, or an increase o f 840,247. These were divided as follow s: New York 22,477,955; Chicago 23,708,209; Boston 3,952,405; Philadelphia 2,170,095. Thus the figures prove that with an increased num ber of 2,874,297 pounds placed on the market, there are 840,247 pounds less held in storage. The only conclusion is that the popular demand for poultry is growing beyond the increase in production. Ohio raisers o f chickens and sellers o f eggs can take the comforting thought that the business is in a most excellent condition to continue, with the future holding no less o f hope than the past. Manufacturers Enjoy Good Business; Taking of Inventories Halts Production Temporarily Business this month as reported by Fourth District manufacturers continues to show a substantial im provement in many lines. The mid-season dullness which is customary at this period is less noticeable than in former years, and the demand for goods in some instances is increasing. The taking o f inven tories near the close o f the year is, to some extent, temporarily interrupting production. Automobiles— Past records were broken in the fall automobile trade as a result o f the unusually heavy demand. At present this industry continues to produce a volume o f motor cars which is in excess o f the amount usually turned out at this time o f year, and some o f the leading companies are operating at near capacity. Passenger cars rather than the truck division have been responsible for the heavy demand. Manu facturers and distributors are placing strong em phasis on the increasing demand for closed cars. Manufacturers expect some curtailment o f opera tions this month due principally to the closing of plants for the regular taking of inventory. In the auto body business manufacturers report that m otor car builders during the past thirty days have been show ing a tendency to order farther ahead than heretofore. The result is that additional orders for bodies have been received. M anufac turers are confronted by transportation, raw ma terial, and labor problems, but so far these have not resulted in any noticeable decline in factory oper ations. Reports this month from representative autom o bile truck manufacturers in this District indicate a somewhat spotty business for the past month. In some instances a fair improvement in sales is reported as compared with the previous month, while in others a decline is shown. Companies are reported to be operating on a conservative produc tion schedule. Shipments of raw materials and finished products are being handled more satisfac torily by the railroads. The following figures compiled by the Department of Commerce give the total passenger car and motor truck production for eleven months of this year by all companies whose reports have been received. With a few exceptions, the reports each month are from identical firms and include approximately 90 passen ger car and 80 truck manufacturers. The November figures are subject to slight revision when all reports have been received. A U T O M O B IL E A N D T R U C K P R O D U C TIO N (Number of Machines) 1922 Passenger Cars Trucks January 81,693 9,416 February 109,171 13,195 152,959 March 19,761 197,216 April 22,342 232,431 May 23,788 263,027 June 25,984 July 224,770 21,739 248,484 24,394 August 187,964 19,130 September 216,467 October 21,434 214,631 November 21,223 Electrical Goods— This business is quite active in practically all lines. The extensive building program vvhich has been put through this fall has brought addi tional loads on the power plants and is partially re sponsible for the strength o f business in that particular field, although the development in many industrial fields is also requiring additional electric power and equip ment. There is an unusually heavy demand for bare THE 6 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW and insulated electrical wires and lead covered cables. small as evidenced by the continued demancf for prompt A large concern reports that orders booked during re delivery. Collections are good. cent months in the aggregate are about double those Paper— The consumption of paper during November for the corresponding months of last year. The plac is reported to have been large, and sales to printers, ing of so much business at this time of year is looked lithographers, etc. are running heavy for December. upon by manufacturers as rather unusual and is at The tonnage being placed with the mills is believed to tributed to the fact that copper has shown a rising be lighter than for October and November, apparently tendency. It is also true that purchases for spring de because the merchant is running his stock low fo r livery are heavier than for some years past and this the annual inventory and what few stock orders that is looked upon in the trade as an evidence that public are being placed are frequently for delivery a fte r service corporations are contemplating considerable ex January 1. tension. Bags— The volume of business continues very satis factory, although the period of greatest pressure a p Small Tools— The volume of November sales is re ported to be slightly less than for October, but about pears to have passed with the customary relaxation the same as the average for the past six or seven toward the holidays. The requirements of the fe r tilizer trade for the first quarter o f 1923 seem to have months, with a volume o f about 75 or 80 per cent of what might be considered normal. The general prac been pretty well covered, and there appears to be a tice of taking inventories at the end o f the year means little more tendency to anticipate from the flour and feed buyers. On the other hand, some buying in other a slackening o f orders in this line. Hardware— While there have been no important lines has been arrested by the recent advance in cotton developments in the hardware business lately, trade is goods. In general, the incrase in volume compared reported to be growing each month and buyers are with a year ago is reflected by the figures showing a showing more interest. Business with the farmer is gain of about 9 per cent in the monthly average o f b u r not showing the improvement it has with the city man. lap importations to North America from Calcutta. Paint— Paint manufacturers have been doing a re Collections are very satisfactory and distinctly better than during the first half of this year. markably good business and sales are reported to have taken a further turn for the better. Factories Stoves and Ranges— The month o f December is are working overtime trying to fill dealers’ stock orders. hardly a normal month in the stove business, especially Dealers’ orders are heavy and there is an optimistic when the weather is mild. Cold weather means addi outlook for spring business. The districts showing tional business. The bulk o f stoves are ordered in the the greatest volume and improvement are the Pacific early fall, so that retailers may have them in stock f 0 r local requirements. Such orders as are placed in N o Coast, North Central and Middle West. Manufac turers see definite indications of returning prosperity vember and December are usually for the purpose o f balancing stock or taking care of belated demands in farming and small town communities. Pottery— Since the return o f strikers this industry Then, too, the stove or range has no particular place in the holiday trade. It is noticed, however, that o r has been making strenuous efforts to make up for lost ders are coming in more regularly this year than thev time and get out some of the Christmas business. A did a year ago. Fourth District manufacturer o f china ware reports that the majority o f employees were glad to get back An important manufacturing concern reports they have enjoyed an 80 per cent increase in the stove b u si to their regular occupation. Glass— This is the time o f year when glass manu ness for the month o f November, as compared w ith facturers expect a seasonal decline in demand. So November, 1921, and up to and including sales to D e far, however, it has not materialized because a great cember 14 there was a 240 per cent greater volum e than for the same period in 1921. many of the buildings which are now in the course of erection were started late, and are being finished cor Another manufacturer reports November sales f o r respondingly late. Furthermore, great activity still this year three times greater than for the same month continues in the automobile and furniture business both o f 1921. For the first eleven days o f December thev o f which are large consumers of glass. The industry were six times greater than for the corresponding ® is also rushed to meet the demand for Christmas goods. period last year. Tin Cans and Pails—(Business continues good, though Efforts are being directed toward the standardizing there is a slight falling off in orders received, due to of products, prompt delivery, quality production, and the usual desire to curtail purchases pending the taking also in other directions tending toward improvement of the annual inventory. Stocks on hand appear to be There is little complaint with reference to collections. Production of Soft Coal Continues Steady; Lack of Motive Power and Cars Delay Shipments The past year has witnessed many changes in the coal industry. During the first part of the year there was little demand for coal, except for stocking pur poses. This period was followed by four and one-half months of strike, after which a heavy demand began. This demand is being fairly well supplied as the year draws to a close. Car shortages and lack of motive power by the rail roads continue to be the principal problems which fa c e the coal men. Many mines in Ohio are getting only THE MONTHLY BUSINESS small percentage o f their normal car supply. Distri butors report that they have a sufficient number o f cars en route to keep them supplied with coal, but the delivery cannot be depended upon at near schedule time, which means that the trade must be cared for on a hand to mouth basis. The cold weather is bringing out a heavy demand from homes where supplies are low, and quick deliveries are being urged. Production of soft coal continues at a daily rate of approximately 1,900,000 tons. The output for the week ending December 9 was estimated at 11,389,000 tons. According to a recent report o f the United States Geological Survey, the estimated cumulative produc tion of bituminous coal this year to December 9, in clusive, stands at 376,826,000 tons, which is 7,772,000 tons or 2 per cent less than in the corresponding period REVIEW 7 o f 1921; 141,352,000 tons or 27 per cent less than in 1920 ; 53,523,000 tons or 12 per cent less than in 1919; 174,213,000 tons- or 32 per cent less than in 1918; and 142,786,000 tons or 28 per cent less than in 1917. The cumulative production of soft coal during the first 289 working days o f the past six years has been as follow s: 1917 519,612,000 1920 ............. 518,178,000 1918 551,039,000 1921 ............. 384,598,000 1919 430,349,000 1922 ............ 376,826,000 Anthracite production for the week ending December 9 is estimated at 2,038,000 net tons on the basis of 38,971 carloads shipped, including, besides freshly mined coal, that recovered by washeries and river dredges, and allowances for mine fuel and sales to local trade. Railroads Show Signs of Improvement; Number of Bad Order Cars Is Smaller While the condition o f railroad transportation is still far from normal, there is a belief that shipping diffi culties are looking a little brighter. Up to this time, however, there has been no great improvement and from many sections of the country, reports that only a partial amount o f the needed equipment can be secured are numerous. On October 31 there was a total shortage o f 179,239 cars and a surplus o f 3,716 cars. On November 30 the shortage had fallen to 133,786 cars and the sur plus had risen to 5,595 cars. This may be explained by a demand for cars which is seasonal in different sec tions of the country. Thus there might be a shortage o f cars in western states during the fall season when grain shipments are heavy, and at the same time a sur plus o f cars in another section o f the country, due to a seasonal decline in certain manufactured products. During November there was a much greater move ment o f revenue freight than for the same month in 1920 or 1921. This increase in the amount o f freight moved, together with an apparent increase in the abil ity of the roads to handle it, point to an improvement in the conditions o f the railroads throughout the country. In addition to the improvement in the car supply, there has been a considerable reduction in the number of cars reported in bad order. During the spring o f this year there was a total o f well over 300,000 cars in bad order continuously. The number o f cars in bad order now is less than 250,000 and seems to be falling steadily. The buying o f equipment continues heavy with the present demand coming principally from western lines. Figures compiled by the Iron Trade Review show car orders for 11 months o f 1922 total 157,173. The orders by months are as follow s: January ................. 11,000 July ....................... 13,700 February ............... 14,500 August ................... 1,610 March ................... 12,000 September ............ 10,357 April ..................... 31,500 October ................. 12,700 May ....................... 18,250 November ............. 18,456 June ....................... 13,100 Healthy Demand in Various Textile Lines; After-Results of Coal and Rail Strikes Noticeable in Certain Sections The textile industry appears to be progressing along the same lines as a month ago, with the exception that in the women’s wear part o f the business especially, manufacturers are ordering goods ahead for delivery up to the middle o f March and are urging deliveries. The pressing for deliveries is also true in the men’s wear line, but manufacturers seem to be operating more carefully in buying ahead for next season, unless a price is given them which is not in keeping with the present wool market. The wool market remains firm. Domestic wool is pretty well used up and foreign markets are now the principal source o f supply. A Fourth District textile manufacturer recently visited textile mills in the East. He reports that the scarcity of textile labor which has been in evidence in Cleveland for some time, is also apparent in the eastern mills. These investigations disclosed the fact that many o f the representative mills in that part o f the country are operating shorthanded. Many o f the salesmen who have been out on spring trips for men’s ready-to-wear are coming in and, generally speaking, report a satisfactory volume o f business booked— in most cases ahead o f a year ago. The results continue to be spotty, however, certain territories showing a substantial gain while others do not. Some o f the coal territories have not yet recov ered from the blow of idleness which the coal strike precipitated. There are railroad towns in a similar condition. Agricultural territories, generally speaking, are showing improvement, though there is still caution. The wind-up o f the fall season seems to show a more healthy activity than at the end o f previous seasons during the last two years.' It is generally understood that stocks have been reasonably well cleaned up. Re tail business seems to be picking up more than the THE 8 MONTHLY BUSINESS wholesale— the demand being supplied from current stocks which is a healthy condition. The recent cold weather which has prevailed in many parts o f the country has stimulated demand for wear ing apparel. There is a healthy demand for goods which are a protection against the cold, and this has been well sustained throughout the month. There has been a noticeable absence of drastic price reductions— indices of excessive stocks that have so REVIEW generally prevailed at this season o f the year. T h is has had much to do with the feeling of strength in the textile lines, and has been a factor in price maintenance. Bookings of spring orders in women’s ready-to-wear lines indicate an absence o f carried-over stocks and a better outlook for distribution based on larger earnings. In the fancy knit goods business orders for spring delivery are heavy. The salesmen are now out on the road selling for next fall, and they report good orders. Rubber Situation Shows No Particular Change; Cold Weather Increases Footwear Demand The rubber industry reports a continuance of good business. Production schedules remain heavy, and manufacturers believe they have reasonable (grounds for anticipating a prosperous beginning for the new year. Because o f the low prices o f tires, users have done very little repairing of old tires with the result that the consumption per car has been greater this year than in any other year in the industry. The India Rubber Review says that the encouraging reports of probable auto sales mean more tires for original equipment. Increasing interest in touring and good fall weather have also resulted in more tires being sold. The heavy demand for closed cars means more winter driving and the hard use of tires. Spring dating orders are reported to be heavy in all lines of the major plants, which fact is responsible to a large extent for the unusual amount of winter p ro duction. Seasonal weather is aiding the footwear output and has made collections in this line unusually good. More severe winter weather is needed, however, to move goods off the dealers’ shelves. New styles this year have brought additional orders. Mechanical goods business is reported to be gaining steadily as more in dustrial plants get under way. Sales of drug sundriel are good. The rubber restriction legislation in the rubber p r o ducing countries^ of the East has resulted in a very marked advance in the price of crude rubber within the last three months. Fabric prices are also higher. Some difficulty in procuring sufficient labor is re ported. Holiday Buying Brings Good Volume of Business to Wholesale Grocers; Collections Show Some Improvement Nothing particularly new has developed in the whole sale grocery business since last month when condi tions were reported to be more satisfactory than at any time during the past few years. Business con tinues good, and collections are reported to be a little better than for the month o f November. There is a fair volume o f orders, and holiday business, especially for such items as canned fruits, vegetables, nuts, dried fruits, etc., has been very good. Just previous to the holiday week there is always a spurt o f heavy buying. This is only natural, for the housewife is preparing for the holiday week and usually lays in a supply o f groceries sufficient to last through this period. The natural result is that a temporary lull comes during the last week o f the year. Wholesale grocery men say they are expecting business to slow up a little as usual, during the holiday week. The canning industry, and particularly corn, is gradu a l l y getting in better shape. The improvement over this time last year is marked. This is due to a general bet terment o f conditions and to the improved business methods o f the canners. The following report summarizes general depart ments in the wholesale grocery line as they stand out in reference to dealer’s arid consumer’s buying. Cereals— Buying somewhat lighter than a month ago due to the season’s demands being filled by previous buying. This is also true of flour, pickles, fish in bulk, and sauerkraut. Bakers Supplies— Buying quite sluggish and n ot up to expectations. Coffee— Visible stocks very light. Sales very satisfactory. Prices advancing- Soap— Little change since last month when con sumption was reported to be growing and prices m ov ing upward. Tea Stocks light. advancing. Good volume of sales. Prices Beverages Little change since last month when con sumption was reported to be normal for this time o f year. Candy—^Buying very good. Many jobbing lines completely sold out for the season. Factories working overtime on holiday goods. Canned Goods— Fancy goods scarce and difficult to get^ Prices very firm. Retailers’ buying very satisPreserves— Demand increasing. Condiments--P rices advancing due to short tomato CrM^jini cer*a*n sections. Jobbers’ buying active. R e tail dealers buying heavily. Peanuts Prices advancing with sales very satisfac tory. Cheese— Holiday season affects buying. Storage THE MONTHLY BUSINESS stocks of American cheese ten million pounds short o f five-year average, with consumption much greater. Sugar— No particular change since last month when demand was slow, due to close o f canning season. Tobacco— Cigar prices very firm with sales unusually REVIEW 9 good. The cigarette situation is about the same as it was a month ago when the demand was good. The demand for bulk, scrap, and chewing tobacco is about normal. Olives— Many curers withdrawn from the market; holding for higher prices. Demand good. Advances in Raw Material Prices Handicap Farm Implement Manufacturers; New Machinery Essential to Farming Efficiency Reports this month from Fourth District farm im plement and tractor manufacturers quite generally in dicate that conditions are much the same as they were a month ago. Some slight improvements are noted and these are attributed to the brighter mental attitude o f the farmer. Where contracts and sales show any marked improvement, comparisons are made with busi ness a year ago rather than with last month. One o f the late developments in the implement busi ness is the increasing export demand, which is coming at a very opportune time. This is definitely reflected in the report o f an important farm implement manu facturing concern. Their November sales showed an increase of 150 per cent over November, 1921, and December sales will show a gain o f approximately 100 per cent. This business in both instances was prac tically all export trade to South America. The most disquieting factor in the tractor and im plement industries at this time is a general and con tinued increase in the cost o f materials. The peak of high prices for implements was about 72 per cent above the pre-war level. This has been materially reduced during the last two years to the present level, which is about 41 per cent above the pre-war years. The manufacturers have reached this position in the face o f advancing material prices which within the past nine months have shown a decided up ward trend. How best to meet this situation is a matter upper most in the minds o f manufacturers now. The in dustry has long believed that could it get its prices on a basis o f relative pre-war exchange values with farm crops, a period of long delayed buying would ensue. The recent advance in the market prices of farm prod ucts brings them nearer the level o f the present cost o f implements. Whether continued increases in the farm products market will be sufficient to absorb ad vances in implement prices without lessening trade is problematical. The dealers have told the manufac turers that they cannot sell at any higher price levels, although they believe the farmers generally are resigned to the belief that lower prices are impossible, and that they will buy now. The manufacturers, however, be lieve that inasmuch as the industry has done a great deal to maintain prices upon a basis where the farmed can buy, the farmers should be willing that prices be established upon a plane which will preclude manu facturing losses. The most encouraging feature o f the present situa tion is the somewhat improved buying power and men tal attitude o f the farmer. While his earnings are not yet what they should be, they have increased. Also, he is beginning to realize that his old machinery can not be repaired much longer except at the cost of effi cient operation and that in efficient operation lies at least a partial cure for his present ills. In other words, the efficiency program which has been neces sary in a great many manufacturing lines is also applicable to farming— the most important of all in dustries, and implement men believe this will mean new and better machinery. Building Operations Continue Into Winter Months; Investment Building Brings Out New Orders Cold weather does not appear to have had the usual depressing effect upon building operations so far this winter, at least so far as the construction of homes is concerned. Very little severe weather, however, has been encountered up to this time, and until a few weeks ago, conditions were unusually favorable for construction work. Certain types o f construction have apparently reached the stage where they are a con tinuous operation. The figures for dwelling construction in the suburbs of greater Cleveland aggregated $32,579,120 for the first 11 months o f the present year as compared with $16,912,860 for the same period last year; and the first portion o f December carried a like percentage o f increase, indicating that the year will bring totals ap proximately double those o f 1921. For the city proper, the value o f building permits issued for 11 months of 1922 aggregated $50,930,415 in comparison with $44,225,798 for the same period last year. For the month o f November, 1922, 211 frame dwellings with a valuation o f $1,065,450 were reported at the office o f the Building Commission o f this city, as compared with 144 dwellings at a value o f $698,150 for the same month a year ago. Many cities in the Fourth District report that build ing operations have progressed nicely in spite of the winter season. This has resulted in practically con stant employment for all trades. Labor shortage in certain lines continues. Bidding for labor in these lines is causing an upward tendency in costs. However, good weather for building has helped to counteract this situation to some extent. Evidence o f increasing cost is to be found in the figures being taken for new work to be started during the open days o f the winter for completion the com THE 10 MONTHLY BUSINESS ing spring and early summer. The basis o f this rising cost is to be found in both material and labor. There are many who view this tendency with feelings of apprehension in view o f the heavy building program now under way. Residential building has been going on rapidly and construction work has extended to the investment type. This expansion is bringing out new orders. As an illus REVIEW tration, a Fourth District hardwood lumber m anufac turer reports that one grade o f oak flooring for w hich there was no demand whatever a year ago, is n o w being oversold 150 per cent o f the total available stock in the country. Rough lumber prices in hardwoods are advancing, with a scarcity o f desirable stocks. E x port demand has been showing signs of revival recently. Final Returns on Lake Shipping Season Show Heavy Shipments; Coal Shipments Larger Than Expected Most of the ore shippers made an early clean-up, and only one cargo was loaded in December. The last ore carrier to sail left Hscanaba on December 2, and after delivering the cargo at Buffalo, loaded coal at an Ohio port for Milwaukee. The ore movement for the season did not reach the estimates made earlier in the season. Requirements were cut on account of the coal and rail strikes, as a large number of furnaces were idle during the summer months. Including the cargo that was loaded in December, the mines in the Lake Superior district sent forward 3,420,560 tons in November, making the movement for the season 42,613,184 tons, which is an increase o f 20,312,458 tons over 1921, when shipments were 22,300,726 tons. The all-rail movement is estimated at 1,000,000 tons which will make the total for 1922, 43,613,184 tons. Receipts o f ore at Lake Erie ports in November were 3,171,593 tons, making 31,713,645 tons which the docks at this end o f the route handled during the season up to December 1. In November, 1921, the fleet delivered 451,227 tons, and receipts for the season were only 15,554,341 tons. A s h t a b u l a leads all the ports in receipts for the season with 7,730,461 tons, Cleveland is second with 7,169,586 tons; Connraut third with 6,540,031 tons; and Buffalo, with 3,865,874 tons, is fourth in the list. Receipts at the different ports for November and the season follow : p nr+ Month Season 430,684 Tons 3,865,874 Tons Erie 125,346 “ 666,288 “ Conneaut 580,154 “ 6,540,031 “ £££? S 3 “ Port Cleveland Lorain Huron Toledo Total Month 720,165 306,480 67,642 152,467 “ “ “ “ Season 7,169,586 2,835,551 654,575 1,218,482 " “ “ “ 3,171,593 Tons 31,713,645 T o n s The Lake Erie docks shipped 2,062,997 tons o f o r e to the interior furnaces in November, making the movement for the season 21,095,473 tons. Stocks a t the lake front are heavier than they were a year a g o . On December 1 the docks were holding 9,899,313 ton s and on the same date in 1921 stocks were 9,032,595 tons. The coal movement was heavier than figured o n when the miners’ strike was settled, and although th e coal was very slow coming forward from the m ines during the latter part o f the season, a good clean-up was made. About 500 cars were carried over, a n d most of the material was slag, for which there is little demand in the lake trade. Shipments for Decem ber were heavier than usual, and the last cargo was n o t loaded until the middle o f the month. Shipments f o r the week ended December 11 were 278,261 tons a n d for the same week in 1921 the fleet loaded only 27,885 tons. The movement for the season up to D ecem ber 11 was 18,450,226 tons compared with 22,412,380 tons, for the same time in 1921, and 22,408,355 tons i » 1920. n The stone movement will show a good increase o v e r 1921. Grain shipments were heavy but the figures arenot yet available. The fleet loaded more than 2 0 0 ,000,000 bushels o f grain at Fort William and P o r t Arthur. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS 11 REVIEW Debits to Individual Accounts Increase or Decrease Amount Per Cent Week End ing Dec. 13, 1922 (323 Banks) Week End ing N ov. 15, 1922 (323 Banks) Akron..................... Butler, P a.*.......... Canton................... Cincinnati........... Cleveland............ Columbus............ Connellsville*___ D ayton................. Erie....................... Greensburg.......... Homestead*........ Lexington............ Lim a*................... Lorain................... New Brighton*. . Oil C ity ............... Pittsburgh........... Springfield........... T oledo.................. Warren, O .* ........ Wheeling.............. Youngstown........ Zanesville*.......... $ 14,301,000 2.417.000 11.762.000 69.084.000 131.458.000 31.664.000 1.540.000 14.225.000 6.388.000 4.439.000 752,000 5.951.000 3.537.000 1.415.000 2.343.000 3.019.000 269.068.000 4.938.000 35.234.000 3.107.000 9.993.000 13.217.000 2.764.000 $ 14,287,000 2.533.000 8.928.000 69.696.000 139.114.000 31.939.000 1.565.000 13.800.000 7.260.000 4.179.000 711,000 7.401.000 4.016.000 1.568.000 2.582.000 3.365.000 178.053.000 4.897.000 49.706.000 3.024.000 10.048.000 12.972.000 2.975.000 $ T o tal.............. $642,616,000 $574,619,000 $67,997,000 0.1 14.000 116,000 — 4 .6 2.834.000 31.7 612,000 — 0 .9 7.656.000 — 5.5 275.000 — 0 .9 25.000 — 425.000 3.1 872.000 — 260.000 6.2 5.8 41.000 1.450.000 — 19.6 479.000 — 11.9 153.000 — 9.8 239.000 — 9 .3 346.000 — 10.3 91.015.000 51.1 41.000 14.472.000 — 29.1 83.000 2 .7 55.000 — 0.5 245.000 1.9 — 7.1 Week End Increase or Decrease ing Dec. 14, Amount Per Cent 1921 (271 Banks) $ 10,198,000 60.607.000 115,502,000 26.417.000 1.6 12.0 4,103,000 40.2 8.477.000 15,956,000 5.247.000 14.0 13.8 19.9 1,373,000 10.7 674,000 - 9 .5 92,000 2.1 ’ 12,852,000 7,062,000 4,347,000 3,856,000 2,095,000 54.3 2.456.000 144,867,000 3.297.000 30.975.000 563,000 124,201,000 1.641.000 4.259.000 22.9 85.7 49.8 13.7 ' ' 7 , 358,666 10.171.000 2.635.000 3.046.000 35.8 29.9 $439,965,000 $173,014,000 39.3 0.8 211.000 11.8 $ * Debits for corresponding period 1921 not available. Comparative Statement of Selected Member Banks in Fourth District Dec. 13, 1922 (84 Banks) Inc. N ov. 15, 1922 (84 Banks) Loans and Discounts secured by U. S. Govern ment obligations................................................ $ 30,954,000 $ 31,205,000 Loans and Discounts secured by other stocks and 374.743.000 354.642.000 bonds.. .^.............................................................. 632.292.000 636,101,000Loans and Discounts, all other.............................. 177.808.000 177.218.000 U. S. B onds................................................................ 2.854.000 1.526.000 U. S. Victory N otes.................................................. 33.796.000 31.836.000 U. S. Treasury N otes............................................... 3.496.000 3.975.000 U. S. Certificates o f Indebtedness......................... 292.288.000 280.195.000 Other Bonds, Stocks, and Securities..................... 1.551.450.000 1.513.479.000 Total Loans, Discounts, and Investments........... 103.537.000 Reserve with Federal Reserve Bank..................... 93.987.000 30.426.000 Cash in Vault............................................................. 36.207.000 862.508.000 855.138.000 Net Demand Deposits............................................. 516.295.000 555.823.000 Time Deposits............................................................ 11.727.000 Government Deposits............................................... 10.693.000 Total Resources at date o f this R eport................ 1.988.037.000 1.949.841.000 Dec. $ $ 251,000 20,101,000 3.809.000 ’590,006 ’ 1,328,000 1.960.000 ’479,066 ’ i 2,093’,000 37.971.000 ’ 9, 550,666 ’ 5/781,000 ’ ‘ 7, 370,666 39.528.000 i ,034,606 '38,’196,000 Wholesale Trade Percentage Increase (or Decrease) in Net Sales During November, 1922, as Compared with October, 1922, and November, 1921 D ry Goods Net Sales (selling price) during November, 1922, compared with October, 1 9 2 2 ......... .............. .......................................................................... Net Sales (selling price) during November, 1922, compared with November, 1921............................................................................................... Hardware Drugs Groceries — 8 .6 — 3 .2 — 2.1 4 .6 14.7 25.3 7.3 11.1 THE 12 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Department Store Sales Percentage o f net sales (selling price) during November, 1922, over net sales (selling price) during the same month last year . Percentage o f net sales (selling price) from July 1, 1922, to November 30, 1922, over net sales (selling price) during the same period last year............................................. Percentage o f stocks at close o f November, 1922, over stocks at close o f same month last year......................................................... Percentage o f stocks at close o f November, 1922, over stocks at close o f October, 1922 Percentage of average stocks at close o f each month this season (commencing with July 1 , 1922) to average monthly net sales dur ing the same period..................................... Percentage o f all outstanding orders (cost) at close o f November, 1922, to total pur chases (cost) during the calendar year, 1921................................................................ Cleveland Pittsburgh Cincinnati T oledo Akron Canton Other Cities District 17.5 17.5 11.5 9.5 18.1 11.4 21.5 1 6 .3 16.8 11.4 4.1 8 .8 14.0 10.3 24.6 12.6 — 7.3 — 12.5 — 3.3 5.6 1.8 12.3 — 2 .5 4 .6 4 .6 2.0 —0.8 2.9 2.2 1.1 11.1 2 .9 330.6 364.6 448.6 365.9 358.4 903.8 404.0 3 7 2 .8 9.8 7.3 6.7 6.7 9.2 6.7 12.4 8 .2 Building Operations for Month of November, 1922-1921 Canton. . . . Cincinnati.. Cleveland*. Columbus. . Da y t o n. . . . E rie............ Lexington. . Pittsburgh.. Springfield.. T oledo........ W heeling.. . Youngstown Valuation Permits Issued New Construction Alterations Alterations Increase or D ecrease 1922 1921 1922 1921 1922 1921 1922 1921 Amount Per C en t 180,634 $ 69,870 $ 66,915 $ 18,425 $ 159,254 42 23 $ 98 170 180 4 580,964 184,305 49 43 19,639 85 162 43,610 372,668 163 5 2,380,515 671,295 265 151 335,925 246 371 150,700 1,894,445 230 5 5,354,103 3,669,895 660 1,298,700 752 559,155 716 404 2,423,753 57 3 822,865 548,100 143,535 67 79 252 315 77,815 340,485 54 4 350,105 266,743 121,846 46 63 28,521 100 175 176,687 59! 8 151,040 253,730 30 17 45,525 83 24,391 — 81,556 — 29 3 86 65,405 35,000 3,860 22 28 8 13,350 38 20,915 43.3 2,173,582 2,887,917 74 104,376 84 308 95,759 — 705,718 — 23 7 353 79,900 41,450 7 3,875 13 37 54 6,200 36,125 75.8 466,630 1,172,099 103 91 78,977 127 84,745 — 711,237 — 56 6 234 101,435 67,175 16 25 14,975 44 37 6,150 43,085 58 8 353,050 238,480 20 22 14,825 64 128 23,825 106,110 40 5 2,839 1,856 1,522 1,270 $13,060,228 $10,106,059 $2,252,973 $1,132,106 $4,075,036 * Includes figures for East Cleveland, Lakewood, Cleveland Heights, and Shaker Heights. To ta l.... Movement of Livestock at Principal Centers in Fourth Federal Reserve District for Month of November, 1922-1921 Cincinnati......................... Cleveland.......................... Colum bus......................... Davton .................... Fostoria. * ....................... Marion Pittsburgh .................. Springfield' ..................... Tokdo ... w h e e l i n g : : : : : : . . .......... Cincinnati........................ Cleveland.......................... Colum bus......................... Fostoria............................. Marion............................... P itts b u r g h ..:.................. Snrimrfield ... wheefing : : : : : . .......... Cattle 1922 1921 27,641 28,617 11,986 11,235 73 14 2,107 2,090 1 335 681 Hogs 1922 1921 136,716 141,597 106,431 $6,6%0 1o’Z it 13,526 12,054 12,713 11,002 Sheep 1922 1921 9,330 13,938 45,918 50,599 114 327 524 2,235 2,942 781 88 23 U ’ 230 7 ’ 890 532 59,340 53,958 288,402 240,601 60,785 64,015 131 430 7,694 6,950 1,380 1,288 853 819 17,591 10,426 1,623 2,599 427 4 19 3,104 2,354 355 634 P u r c h a se s fo r L o c a l S lau g h te 12,780 15,945 64,302 92,847 4,726 10,545 11,162 10,474 82,794 61,775 19,221 22,875 24 14 36 494 66 55 45 160 1,162 18 “ l5 88 23 3,030 1,694 13 32 6,214 5,573 60,739 51,288 9,062 11,567 51 _______ 454 ......................... 133 4 27 419 3,104 2,354 355 634 Calves Cars U nloaded 1922 1921 1922 ................................ 1921 9,589 10,132 1,991 2,264 9,930 8,634 1,943 1,894 223 242 17 656 643 433 403 ’ 45 35 152 100 24,512 22,031 5,890 4,707 208 115 676 574 225 159 1.089 772 27 24 12 4,483 9,604 44 25 116 6,738 35 1.089 6,140 8,343 41 35 49 5,752 *772 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 13 Summary of Business Conditions in the United States Beginning with this issue we publish a national summary of business and credit conditions which is to be prepared each month by the statistical services of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks. This summary will deal with the latest available facts regarding production, prices, trade, and bank credit. The figures for banking will be those of the current month, but the other figures will necessarily relate to the preceding month. The index of production includes the following 22 series: pig iron, steel ingots, cotton, wool, wheat flour, sugar, hogs slaughtered, cattle slaughtered, calves slaughtered, sheep slaughtered, lumber, bituminous coal, anthracite coal, copper, zinc, leather, newsprint, cement, petroleum, cigars, cigarettes, manufactured tobacco. In combining these series in a single index, the different items have been weighed in accordance with their relative importance. Allowance has been made for seasonal variations, so that the index does not reflect changes due to seasonal causes. The combined pro duction index compares current output with the production in 1919, the wholesale price index is that of the Bureau of Labor statistics which uses average prices in 1913 as a base. The Volume of Production and Employment Continued Upward in November, And Prices Registered a Further Advance Production Contrary to the usual trend at this season of the year, production in basic industries in November continued to increase. Since July, 1921, when production was lower than at any time in recent years, there has been an almost uninterrupted rise month by month. The index, illustrated in the chart, in which allowance has been made for sea sonal changes, shows that production in basic industries during November was 52 per cent higher than in July, 1921, and 7 per cent higher than in October, 1922. The chief advances from October to November were in mill consumption of cotton which reached a monthly total ex ceeded only once since 1917, and in the production of pig iron which was larger than at any time in the past two years. Building operations were maintained on a large scale despite the approach of winter. Final estimates for the year placed the yields of all principal crops ahead of 1921, except that of corn which was unusually large in 1921. As a result of these larger yields and the higher prices as well, the total farm value of crops grown in 1922, based on prices received at the farm, as of December 1, is estimated to be 25 per cent larger than in 1921, but 17 per cent less than in 1920. Increased production was accompanied by continued heavy freight movement. The total number of railroad cars loaded during November was substantially larger than in the corresponding month of previous years, although 5 per cent less than in October. The decline in the de mand for cars and a further decrease in the proportion of cars out of repair have resulted in a considerable re duction in the freight car shortage. Demand for labor continued to increase as shown by the volume of employment at industrial establishments. Local shortages of labor were reported by steel mills, tex tile mills, and building contractors in eastern districts, but some surplus of common labor was reported from agricul tural districts. Wholesale Prices Wholesale prices advanced during November and reached the highest level since March, 1921. The rise of two points in the Bureau of Labor statistics index to 156 was due chiefly to advances in the prices of farm products, foods, and clothing, which rose to the highest point of the year. These advances more than offset the de cline in the prices of fuels and metals. Volume o f Trade Wholesale trade in lines reported to Federal Reserve banks was substantially larger during November than in the corresponding month last year. Sales of department stores and mail order houses during November were also larger than a year ago, and reports of Christmas trade thus far received indicate sales larger than either 1920 or 1921. The volume of payments by check was 7 per cent smaller in November than in October, due partly to the smaller number of business days, but was 10 per cent larger than in November, 1921. Bank Credit During the period between November 22 and December 20 Federal Reserve banks have been called upon to sup ply the extra currency needs of holiday trade, and this demand is reflected in an increase of $157,000,000 in Fed eral Reserve note circulation, bringing the total to the highest point for the year. A decline of $43,000,000 in gold reserve was also largely due to increased use of gold for currency purposes. The total earning assets of the Federal Reserve banks rose during the period $145,000,000, partly in response to the demand for currency, and partly in consequence of heavy Government operations on De cember 15. In the four weeks prior to December 13, the loans and investments of member banks in leading cities were little changed, though in the latter part of the pe riod a renewed demand was manifested for commercial loans, offset to some extent by a decline in investments. THE 14 MONTHLY INDEX OF PRODUCTION IN B ASIC INDUSTRIES COMBINATION OF 2 J tHDIV\OUKL SERIES BUSINESS REVIEW PRICES INDEX NUMBERS OP WHOLESALE PRICE* U .S . BUREAU OF LABOR STATI3TICS ( MONTHLYAVCRACt 1913*100* BA3C. ADOPTED O Y VOLUME OF PAYMENTS BY CHECK CHECKS DRAWN ON BANKS IN 1AO C E N T E R S , NEW Y O R K N O T IN C LU D E D BANK CREDIT 80 0 MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES FOURTH FEDERAL RESERVE D ISTR IC T 'n s y l v a n i a ICENTu /"••% N f *d— r ---------- OP DISTRICT BOUNDARY BOUNDARIES OF DRANCH TE fUlTO ftlES • . . . ----- b o u n d a r i e s of s t a t e s <§) FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. C I T Y O FEDERAL RESERVE BRANCH C IT IE S
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