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The Monthly Business Review Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND D. C. Wills, Chairman of the Board (COMPILED JANUARY 22, J925) VOL. 7 CLEVELAND, OHIO, FEBRUARY 1, 1925 Editorial An examination of the various indexes shows th a t business in general has continued to improve during the past month, taking into consideration the fact th a t this is a dull season for numerous lines. Production in basic industries gained 10 per cent during December as compared with November, car loadings continue high for this time of year, and the oil industry has begun to show signs of im provement, with consumption a t last catching up with production. I t should be remembered th at the present business recovery has not been uniform; some industries have gone ahead more rapidly than others, while in a few lines, such as textiles, there has as yet been very little improvement, if any. A notable feature of the present upswing is the policy of whole salers and retailers to buy for current requirements only. M anu facturers in the Fourth District are practically unanimous in stating th at their customers are still buying conservatively, even in the face of advancing prices. This appears to hold true in all lines of manufacture. Probably the two main reasons for this attitude are the present efficiency of transportation, insuring quick delivery, and the memory of 1920, when merchants were caught with excessive stocks which were disposed of only at considerable loss. This policy of conservative buying has doubtless helped to check any “boom” tendencies. No. 2 t h e 2 m o n t h l y b u s in e s s r e v ie w N a tio n a l S u m m a ry of B usiness C onditions Production and employment in December continued the increase which began in the autumn and wholesale prices advanced further to the h ig h est level for the year. Railroad shipments of goods continued in large volum e and trade, both at wholesale and retail, was larger than a year ago. PRODUCTION IN BASIC NDUSTRES Hk■ V PRO D U CTIO N Index o£ 22 basic com m odities corrected for seasonal variations (1919— 100). L a te s t figure D ecem ber, 117. The index of production in basic industries advanced about 10 per cent in December to a point 25 per cent higher than last summer but was still be low the level of the opening months of 1924. Practically all of the 22 indus tries included in the index shared in the advance and the increases were particularly large in iron and steel, cotton manufacturing, coal mining, and meat packing. Among the industries not represented in the index the output of automobiles declined in December and was the smallest for any month in more than two years. Increased industrial activity was accompanied by an advance of about 2 per cent in factory employment, with larger increases in the metal and textile industries, and by a growth of nearly 5 per cent in total factory payrolls. Volume of building, as measured by contracts awarded, was less in December than in November, but continued unusually large for the season of the year. TRA D E Distribution of goods was greater in December than in the same month of 1923, as indicated by larger railroad shipments and an increase in the vol ume of wholesale and retail trade. Christmas trade at department stores w a s greater than in the previous year, and sales by mail order houses and chain stores were the largest on record. Wholesale trade was seasonally less than in November but in practically all lines was larger than a year ago. Market ing of agricultural products was greater than for the corresponding month of any recent year. PR IC ES Index of U. S. B u reau of L ab o r Statistic* (1913— 100, b ase ad o p ted b y Bureau). L atest figure—-D ecem ber, 157. A further advance of more than 2 per cent in the Bureau of Labor S ta tistics index of wholesale prices carried the average in December 8 per cent above the low point of June and to the highest level since April, 1923. Prices of all groups of commodities were higher, the principal increases being in farm products and foods. In the first half of January prices of grains, Wool, coal, and metals increased further, while sugar, dairy products, silk,’ coke and rubber declined. BANK CRED IT Ind ex oi sales of a b o u t 350 sto res in 117 cities (1919— 100). L a te st figure— December, u n a d ju sted , 207; w ith seasonal correction, 129. RESERM€ BANK ( ay o r AY"' d um / m '\ r m 2 UrMDJ «t:MU \ * I n m 1\ 140* ___ » IW9 m !•« XU W eekly figures for 12 Federal R eserve ban k s, L a te s t S g u rt* — D ecem ber 31, A t the Federal Reserve banks the rapid return flow of currency after the holiday trade resulted, during the four weeks ending January 21, in 3 reduction of earning assets about equal to that for the same season a year earlier. The net outflow of currency from the reserve banks during the month preceding Christmas amounted to more than $200,000,000, and th e return flow after the Christmas peak, reflected both in the increase in r e serves and in the decline of Federal Reserve note circulation, was in e x cess of $300,000,000. Fluctuations in the earning assets of the reserve banks during the past two months have reflected chiefly these seasonal changes in the demand for currency. The decline in discounts brought their total on January 21 to a smaller volume than at any time in 1924, and acceptances also showed a seasonal decrease. Holdings of United States securities, which have declined for more than two months, were about $175,000,000 below the level of last autumn and in about the same amount as at the middle of 1924 Net exports of gold, which gave rise to a demand for reserve bank credit! amounted to $30,000,000 in December and were in larger volume the first three weeks in January. The growth of demand deposits at member banks in leading cities dur ing the three weeks ending in the middle of January, which has been greater than the increase in their total loans and investments, has reflected the re turn of currency from circulation. In the same period there was some in crease in commercial loans and a continued growth in loans secured by stocks and bonds. Holdings of investment securities have decreased somewhat since the middle of November, particularly at the banks in New York City. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS Financial Condition Bills discounted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland rose from 43 mil lions on December 10, 1924, to 51 mil lions on December 17, the highest point since April 23, 1924, when they amounted to practically the same figure, but declined to 29 millions on January 14, 1925. Nearly all this decrease oc curred during the week of January 14, bills discounted having dropped from 46 millions on January 7 to 29 millions on January 14. Government securities held amounted to $54,000,000 on January 14, 1925, as compared with $56,511,000 on De cember 10, 1924, a decrease of $2,500,000. Total earning assets declined from $132,857,000 on December 10, 1924, to $123,874,000 on January 14, a decrease of $9,000,000. During the period December 10, 1924, to January 14, 1925, gold reserves declined from $277,899,000 to $247,652,000; member bank deposits from $182,587,000 to $173,740,000, and note circulation from $209,993,000 to $189,398,000. Loans of reporting member banks in the Fourth Dis trict showed a still further decline from $1,157,449,000 on December 3, 1924, to $1,140,024,000 on January 7, 1925, the lowest point since August 6 , 1924. During the same period demand deposits decreased from $1,030,762,000 to $989,198,000, or 4.2 per cent, while time deposits showed practically no change—amounting to $693,049,000 on Jan uary 7, 1925, compared with $695,822,000 on December 3, 1924. The reserve ratio for the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland was 70.6 per cent on January 14, 1925, as compared with 71.4 per cent on December 10, 1924. T he. ratio for the System stood at 76.0 on January 14, as against 75.2 on December 10. On December 31 savings deposits of 69 banks in the Fourth District amounted to $825,020,182, as compared with $813,255,415 on November 30, an increase of 1.4 per cent, and with $764,901,529 on December 30, 1923, an increase of 7.9 per cent. Commercial failures in the United States, as reported by R. G. Dun & Company numbered 2,040 for December, an increase of 387 over the November report and 199 over that of December, 1923. Liabilities for December, 1924, amounted to $45,279,281 an increase of $14,155,371, or 45.5 per cent over November, but a decrease of $6 ,335,449, or 12.3 per cent over December, 1923. In the Fourth District there were 173 failures in December, as compared with 133 in November and 155 in December, 1923* Liabilities for December amounted to $3,678,704, an in* crease of $1,237,662 over November, 1924, or 50.7 per ccnt, and $671,766, or 22.3 per cent over December, 1923. Iron and Steel Improvement in the iron and steel in dustry now is manifesting itself most conspicuously in production. Manu facturers of iron and steel, having provided themselves with liberal or der books through the general disposition of buyers to come REVIEW 3 into the market in November and December, now are put ting their chief attention upon the working up of this busi ness. Most of the producers have sufficient tonnage ahead to carry them well through the first quarter. Buyers are coming in freely with their specifications and the imme diate obligations of producers have been increasing so that deliveries of material are showing a tendency to lengthen. In certain districts shipments on new business in some forms of finished steel are a matter of two months or more. New business since the first of the year on the whole has been less vigorous, which is not surprising in view of the stress being laid by both buyers and sellers upon the shipment of previously entered orders. However, a very fair volume of tonnage has been coming out from the rail roads, the building industry and some quarters of general manufacture. Iron and steel operations have been pushed up to about 90 per cent of capacity on the average. The Steel cor poration is now running around 90 per cent Some dis tricts, notably Chicago, are producing at 95 per cent or virtually at the utmost of workable capacity. By the fur ther gain in that month, the December steel ingot pro duction for the industry reached a point which was 85 per cent of the high record mark of history attained last March. It was the third largest month of the year and showed a 90 per cent gain over the low point of July. The December rate was on the scale of 42,480,000 tons an nually. A further gain in the figures for January is ex pected. Pig iron production in December as compiled by IR O N TRA D E R E V IE W showed the largest monthly gain of any period since March, 1923. December’s grand total pro duction was 2,961,067 tons compared with 2,514,979 tons in November. The daily averages were 95,518 tons and 83,832 tons, respectively. A gain of 25 active furnaces \va« shown by the month, bringing the total on the first of the year to 229. Prices of iron and steel, after having undergone a con stant strengthening which has brought about some advances during the past few months, now are more stationary. Compared with the first of November, steel prices are now $2 to $4 per ton higher. Some producers have already put into effect a further advance to apply to second quarter business. A Chicago independent has advanced plates, shapes and bars for that delivery $2 per ton and some wire mills have posted a similar raise. The advance in pig iron since early November has been more pronounced on the aver age than in rolled steel due to the fact that this market was further depressed at the time the revival began. Pig iron prices on the whole are up about $3.50 per ton. There now is less disposition among producers to continue to raise their schedules and some of them are offering to take on second quarter tonnage at the same price as that which has applied to first quarter. IR O N TR A D E R E V IE W composite of fourteen lead ing iron and steel products has accurately portrayed the advance of the general market. In the third week in Jan uary this index stood at $41.10. On the corresponding THE 4 MONTHLY BUSINESS date in December it was $40.70, while the first week in November it was $38.56. Reflecting the heavy volume of building work in 1924 calling for steel supplies, the complete government fig ures show total bookings by fabricating shops in that pe riod of 2,048,200 tons, equivalent to 68 per cent of capacity. This is the largest total in history and compares with 1,912,935 tons or 65 per cent of capacity in 1923. Coal Several weeks of cold weather have tended to reduce coal stocks and some new buying is now reported. Little extra coal, however, is being stored, buyers apparently preferring to take a chance on prices rather than pay the extra cost of storing and handling. Then, too, they have no fear of a car short age and do not anticipate any trouble with the miners. Spot market prices are still below the level at which shippers can afford to contract and this continues to work against contract buying. A t present efforts are being made in many of the coal districts to bring about mergers, largely due to the un satisfactory operating results obtained last year. There also is a tendency on the part of the operators to abandon those mines which have been running at prohibitive costs. The production of soft coal in the week ending January 10 was the largest in any week since December, 1920, ac cording to a recent report of the United States Geological Survey. The total output was estimated at 12,555,000 net tons. This was an increase, when compared with the pre ceding holiday week, of 1,750,000 and was within 800,000 tons of the highest output on record. Examination of the individual railroad returns shows that the improvement was practically country-wide and that most of the carriers contributed increased shipments. The production of anthracite recovered promptly after the holiday season to approximately the pre-holiday rate. The total estimated output in the week ending January 10 is placed a t 1,785,000 net tons, an increase of 530,000 tons over the previous week. Compared with the most re cent week of full-time operations a decrease of 82,000 tons is shown. Complete figures on lake coal shipments for the season of 1924, compiled by the Ore and Coal Exchange, show that 24,322,552 tons of soft coal were shipped last year as compared with 31,457,294 tons in 1923. Lake shipments for 1922 totaled 19,351,323 tons. Coke Figures compiled by the Geological Sur vey show that the production of beehive coke continues to improve. Estimates for the week endiug January 10 place the total output at 266,000 net tons, an increase of 9,000 over the revised figures for the preceding week. The improvement was confined to and was general in the producing districts of the east, except Virginia, where there was a loss of about 2,000 tons. According to REVIEW the C O N N ELLSV IL LE COU RIER, 307 additional ovens were fired in the Connellsville region. Production th ere continued to increase, but less rapidly than in the preced ing week. The total production in December is estim ated at 900,000 as against 630,000 tons in November. The output of by-product coke for the month of D e cember also increased. Total production for the month w as 3,067,000 net tons. The daily rate of output was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.4 per cent over the November rate. The ratio of production to capacity was 79.1 per cent. O f the 75 plants 68 were in operation. The Survey’s Summary shows that 43,463,000 tons of coke were produced during 1924, or about the same as 1919. The output of by-product coke was 33,795,000 tons. This volume has been exceeded but once in the history of the industry, the exception being 1923, when the re c ord of 37,597,664 tons was reached. The year’s produc tion of beehive coke was approximately 9.668.000 to n s against 19,379,000 in 1923 and 8,573,000 in 1922. By-prod uct ovens thus contributed 77.8 per cent of the 1924 o u t put and beehive ovens 222 per cent. 011 While there was a substantial decrease in the daily production of crude oil in the United States at the close of D e cember and the early part of January, the lost ground was being recovered rapidly immediately thereafter. This was due mainly to the rapid drilling of the new W ortham field in east cen tral Texas, which had its beginning in November. T h e rate of production in this field, however, has begun to fall amounting to 124,000 barrels a day during the week end* ing January 17 as compared with 167,000 barrels the p re ceding week. The effect of the bringing in of the Wortham field was probably to delay somewhat the advances in crude oil prices, which have recently been announced. An important influence in bringing about higher prices has been a rather substantial reduction in stocks. In November more than 2 000,000 barrels of oil were withdrawn from storage to meet the demand. Aside from the Wortham pool there is no field east of California now threatening a greatly increased production. Despite the decreased consumption of gasoline the p a st two months, due to winter weather throughout the coun try, gasoline prices have held firm at refining sources* and fuel oil and heating distillates have been in dem and at advancing prices, which show no indication of so ft ening^ at present. There has been a good export call for gasoline of U. S. motor grade and higher, which has k ep t a surplus from accumulating at refineries. Fuel oil prices are at high levels in relation to crude prices. The advances in retail gasoline prices in the east and south are in recognition of the higher prices for this prod uct at the refinery. An advance of 1 cent a gallon in the price of gasoline was announced by the Standard O il Company of Indiana about the 22nd of January. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS Automobiles The year 1924 closed with a further de cline in automobile production, the De cember figure being 33 per cent behind the preceding December and 10 per ccnt behind November, 1924, according to figures furnished by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chi cago. Various companies have recently announced price reductions upon their cars, and the opinion is held in some quarters that these price reductions, together with low stocks in dealers* hands, should tend to have a stimulat ing effect upon sales. W hether or not such a develop ment occurs, the past year has been marked by a ten dency toward lower production, particularly during the last three quarters of the year. The first three months of 1924 saw an increase of 20 per cent over 1923 in the num ber of cars made, but during the last nine months pro duction fell 20 per cent below the 1923 figure. During the last several years the automobile industry has had a rapid growth, and only the future can tell whether the “saturation point” has been reached in the m atter of pro REVIEW 5 duction, or whether the decline in 1924 may be laid chiefly to the general business depression. In this connection one prominent manufacturer has recently announced the largest January production schedule in the history of his company for the month of January, 1925, and even larger schedules for February and March, 1925. Other developments of interest during 1924 were the growth in the use of balloon tires and of four-wheel brakes. Balloon tires have been gaining steadily in pop ular favor, while there appears to be some difference of opinion among manufacturers as to the public's interest in four-wheel brakes. It is stated, however, that the com panies using the four-wheel brake numbered less than a dozen a year ago, while at present this number has more than trebled. Truck manufacturers in the Fourth District report that a seasonal dullness is being felt in their line. A better feeling prevails, however, and in some cases orders are being received in encouraging volume. A u to m o b ile P ro d u ctio n 1923-1924 Figures Represent Practically Complete Production and Are Based upon Reports Received by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in Cooperation with the National Auto mobile Chamber of Commerce from Identical Firms Each Month 1924 Trucks 28,247 30,399 33,061 34,977 32,326 27,040 24,895 26,781 30,154 30,597 26,246 25,333 Total anuary.................................................. ebruary................................................. March..................................................... April........................................................ May........................................................ June........................................................ July......................................................... August.................................................... September.............................................. October................................................... November............................................... December............................................... Passenger Cars 287,211 336,284 348,287 336,968 279,385 217,845 237,431 251,553 260,091 257,839 201,652 178,570 Total................................................... 3,193,116 350,056 J Tires In general, a spirit of confidence pre vails among tire manufacturers in the Fourth District. The last six months of 1924 were much better than the cor responding period of 1923 from the point of view of the rubber industry. It is estimated that the number of tires sold in the latter half of 1924 was 9 per cent greater than during the latter half of 1923. The demand for tires began to strengthen about the middle of the year, and from June to September shipments showed a substantial increase over production, according to re ports of the Rubber Association of America. This re sulted in a considerable reduction of stocks in manufac turers' hands, until in August they were at the lowest point since December, 1921. Production schedules were increased about the middle of the year, and exceeded ship ments during October and November; but during the greater part of the last half of 1924, stocks were below the 1923 figure. 1923 315,458 366,683 381,348 371,945 311,711 244,885 262,326 278,334 290,245 288,436 227,898 203,903 Passenger Cars 223,653 259,383 319,527 343,793 350,073 337,048 297,173 313,972 298,600 334,244 284,758 275,287 Trucks 18,913 21,411 34,063 36,786 42.373 39,945 29,712 29,882 27,841 29,638 27.374 27,275 Total 242,566 280,794 353,590 380,579 392,446 376,993 326,885 343,854 326,441 363,882 312,132 302,562 3,543,172 3^637,511 365,213 4,002,724 These developments indicate that the underlying posi tion of the tire industry has improved considerably over a year ago. The price of crude rubber, however, con tinues to give some concern. This stood at .3828 dollars per pound in December, an increase of about 12 per cent over November, 45 per cent over a year ago, and practi cally 100 per cent over June, the low point of 1924. The present price is the highest during the last two years, and tends to cut into the margin of profit, as tire prices still show no general tendency to advance. The January report of the Rubber Association of Amer ica, giving information as of December 1, shows that pro duction of high pressure inner tubes amounted to 4,226,841 during November, a decrease of about 1,200,000 from October. Shipments during November slightly ex ceeded production, aggregating 4,339,207 tubes. This fig ure shows an increase of nearly 500,000 over October. Production of both cord and fabric casings declined dur 6 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS ing the same period, and shipments of fabric casings also declined, although shipments of cord casings showed an increase. Production of balloon inner tubes continued to decline in November, and shipments continued to increase slowly, with the result that the latter exceeded the former for the first time. W ith respect to balloon casings, however, production still continued to run ahead of shipments, al though both declined from October. It may be noted that the stocks of balloon inner tubes in manufacturers* hands on December 1 were still high compared to stocks of high pressure inner tubes, the supply of the former be ing sufficient to last 2.2 months, and that of the latter, 1.6 months. Although the total value of rubber goods exported from the United States in 1924 was 8 per cent greater than in 1923, exports of automobile tires showed a decline, accord ing to the Department of Commerce. The estimated total for 1924 is 1,250,000 casings, as compared with 1,362,241 in 1923 and 1,326,220 in 1922. The past year was a poor one for the textile industry, both in the Fourth DisTextiles trict and in the country as a whole. In the Fourth District, the general slackening of 'business during the late spring and summer had a depressing effect, and when busi ness in other lines began to pick up toward the end of the year, the unusually mild weather retarded the movement of goods for winter wear. At the present time, textile manufacturers in this District particularly emphasize the fact that their customers are buying cautiously, and no de cided improvement in business has yet been noted, al though a normal volume is reported in several instances. The price of raw wool made another sharp advance dur ing December, standing at 69.5 cents per pound, as com pared with 62.1 in November, 58.8 in October, 47.0 in June (the low point in 1924) and 54.2 in December, 1923. Turning to the wholesalers, conditions appear to have improved during the month. A better feeling is reported by wholesale dry goods houses in the Fourth District, and this is borne out by the December sales of 19 firms in the District, which were 12 per cent greater than for De cember, 1923, and 4J4 per cent greater than for Novem ber, 1924. The increase over November occurred chiefly in the larger cities. The significance of this gain be comes apparent when it is noted that December was the only month in 1924 which showed an increase over 1923, and furthermore that December showed a gain over No vember, whereas in each of the preceding three years de clines ranging from 10 to 19 per cent occurred in De cember as compared with Novemlber. Sales during the past month, therefore, increased when a seasonal decline might have been expected. The price of cotton yarn declined from 45.22 cents per pound in November to 44.03 cents in December. During the same period, cotton goods advanced from 15.59 to REVIEW 15.62 cents per yard; worsted yarn, from 2.26 to 2.40 d o l lars per pound; and silk, from 6.61 to 6.69 dollars p e r pound. The sharp advance in raw wool prices has a l ready been noted. It is estimated that during the la s t half of 1924, the number of suits cut declined 3.6 p e r cent, and the number of overcoats 18.2 per cent from the corresponding period in 1923. Reports from shoe manufacturers in th e Fourth District indicate that no great Shoes change has taken place during the past month. Business is normal, with a n increase in orders in some cases, but the gain in the volume of business has not been lar**. Buying on the part of dealers is still conservative. Preliminary estimates of the Bureau of the Census in dicate that shoe production in the Fourth District was 2 per cent less in December than in November, and in the United States was about 0.5 per cent less in December than in November. Final production figures for 1,214 factories in the United States put November production at 25,157,143 pairs, as compared with 30,825,998 pairs in October and 26,946,169 pairs in November, 1923. F inal production for the first eleven months of 1924 totaled 288,305,749 pairs, as compared with 328,437,837 during same period in 1923. tlle * Preliminary sales figures of wholesale shoe firms in th e Fourth District in December indicate an increase of 3 per cent over November, and an increase of 32 per c*™ over December, 1923. m Therc *8 «o evidence of a “boom " among manufacturing industries in * en eral in the Fourth District. B usiness however, has improved materially id .• 11 t. s° mc lines during the past month, a n d .n practically all other lines is moving in normal volum e with an improving tendency. Numerous manufacturers re port price advances in raw materials. In some cases th e s advances have already resulted in an increase in the price of the finished product All reports agree that customers are still buying cautiously, although a slightly more liberal policy is noted in a few cases. Even in these instances however, it cannot be said that buying is “liberal.*’ rf11, . Manufacturing I The feeling among manufacturers is for the most p a rt one of confidence in the future. It should be remembered of course, that this is the dull season for many lines, an d that no really marked improvement is anticipated befor* spring. c . . . . . . Agricultural and Agricultural Implements stea<Jy r *se *n prices of practically all farm products continued up to the end of the year, the last week of D e! cember showing a new high level fo r koth wheat and rye, and more moderate gams in oats and barley. The corn market also made good advances, the closing figures for the year standing at about THE MONTHLY BUSINESS $1.25 per bushel for December corn—some 78 per cent above the price at the close of the preceding year. The year closed with an average price for all grades of wheat of $1.74, as against $1.04 at the close of 1923, a gain of about 67 per cent. Oats prices were also included in the general advance, being quoted at 61 cents on the Chi cago markets, a gain of some 17 cents on the bushel, or about 39 per cen t The marked advance in wheat prices has been brought about by a number of contributing fac tors, prominent among which is the shortage of the for eign wheat crop. The higher price level of corn is attributable almost solely to the crop shortage throughout the United States, which latest estimates place at 617,000,000 bushels below that of last year. A reduction of about 12,000,000 head in the number of hogs, and a reduction of about 14 per cent in the number of cattle on feed has considerably reduced the demand for corn. Agricultural implement manufacturers and dealers in the Fourth District report that no marked revival of ac tivity is shown in their line as yet, but they do report an increased interest shown by prospective customers. The depression of the last few years was too severe a blow to the farmer for one to expect an instantaneous recov ery, but there is a well-defined feeling of optimism shown by the trade concerning the immediate future outlook. Deliveries of the 1924 tobacco crop by members of the Burley Growers AsTobacco sociation and also by the independent growers are going forward. The re port of the Commissioner of Agricul ture on loose leaf sales for the m onth of December indi cates that approximately 12 million pounds of burley to bacco were sold for growers during that month at an average of $21.49 a hundred. In the January 1 Business Review two important sales of burley by the Association were reported, one involv ing 50 million pounds of its holdings and the other 1,750,000 pounds. These sales included the balance of the 1922 crop and part of the 1923 crop. Recently several sales of the 1924 crop have been announced, one of them being for 50 million pounds. The increase in the car loadings for the month of December over the same peCar Loadings riod of the preceding year stood at 25 per cent as compared with November’s gain of 1.7 per cent over November, 1923. The gain during the last few months of the year went far toward offsetting the decline which occurred during the summer months, the close of 1924 showing the total movements as only about per cent behind the record-breaking year of 1923, and surpassing the move ments of 1922 and 1921 by 13.5 per cent and 24.7 per cent respectively. The encouraging feature of the situa tion is found in the fact that the advance has been a gradual one and that business has entered into the new year with no indication of • recession. V/i Merchandise L. C. L. loadings and miscellaneous ship ments both surpassed those of the preceding year, the former showing a gain of 5.2 per cent and the latter of 2.0 per cent. Activity in the lumber industry in the Fourth District has quieted down durLumber ing the past month. Manufacturers at tribute this mainly to seasonal dull ness, although there are indkations that some buyers are staying out of the market on account of possible price declines. Stocks in yards are generally low, but the policy of buying conservatively still con tinues. According to a report of the National Lumber Man ufacturers Association, softwood lumber production of about 360 mills in the country amounted to 691 million feet for the four weeks ending January 3, while shipments were 788 million feet, or 14 per cent greater than pro duction. Orders aggregated 811 million feet, or 17 per cent greater than production. During the same period, production of 121 mills in the Southern Pine Association was practically equal to orders and was exceeded only 3 per cent by shipments. Figures covering 360 mills for the entire year show that 1924 production amounted to 13,196,215,353 feet, as com pared to 13,923,194,174 feet in 1923, while 1924 shipments were 12,967,895,293 feet, as compared with 13,378,580,264 feet in 1923. Building The government estimate of the acreage and produc tion of tobacco by types for last year is now available and indicates that about 311 million pounds of burley were produced on 365,000 acres in 1924. According to these estimates last year’s crop is only 15 million pounds be low the record crop of the previous year. These figures on acreage and production are higher than most estimates made by individuals earlier in the season. According to the latest report of the Association, its membership now stands at 107,212, new contracts number ing 255 having been signed recently. REVIEW Building permits of 180 cities in the United States showed an increase of about 7 per cent over November, and a very slight increase over Decem ber, 1923, according to Bradstreet’s. The increase over November was larger than usual; in fact, a decrease occurred in December as com pared with November in both 1920 and 1921, while only in 1922 was there an increase comparable to that of De cember, 1924. Yearly figures for the same cities show that building permits in 1924 were 3.8 per cent greater than in 1923, the actual figures for 1924 being $3,249,355,827 and for 1923, $3,128,228,449. The New England cities THE 8 MONTHLY showed the greatest gain, with 19.1 per cent, while the greatest loss took place in the northwestern territory, the decrease there amounting to 13.6 per cent. In the Fourth District the value of December permits fell off 7.5 per cent from the preceding year, but in creased 19 per cent over November. This latter gain was due entirely to a jump of 300 per cent in the value of permits in Columbus. As compared with December, 1923, the greatest gains were shown by Columbus, with 564.3 per cent and Springfield, with 519.2 per cent, while Lex ington, with 73.8 per cent, showed the greatest loss. For the year 1924, the District showed an increase of 1.1 per cent over 1923. The greatest gain was made by Youngstown, with 108.5 per cent, while the greatest loss occurred in Cleveland, with 9.7 per cent. Cincinnati showed an 8.3 per cent loss, but Pittsburgh increased 3.4 per cent. The Aberthaw index of factory building costs for Jan uary 1 remained unchanged at 197. Ohio, Western Pennsylvania and W est Virginia produced 898,000 barrels of ceCement ment in December, according to the Geological Survey, as compared with 930,000 barrels in December, 1923. Ship ments amounted to 346,000 barrels, as compared with 463.000 in December of the preceding year. Stocks at the end of December were 1,370,000 barrels, as compared with 1.061.000 barrels at the end of December, 1923, and with 817.000 barrels on November 30, 1924. For the United States, December production was 10,435.000 barrels, as compared with 9,997,000 in D e c e m b e r , BUSINESS REVIEW 1923. The preliminary total for the year 1924 was 148,859.000 barrels, an increase of about 11,500,000 barrels over 1923. The 1924 production figures established a new high record, as did shipments, which amounted to 145.747.000 barrels, or an increase of nearly 10,000,000 over 1923. Stock on hand in the vitrified paving brick industry moved upward in D e Brick cember as shipments slowed down, ac cording to the monthly statistical re port of the National Paving Brick M an ufacturers Association. The increase in stocks totaled more than 10,000,000, an indication that manufacturers arc preparing for early spring shipments. Twenty-four companies, representing 62 per cent o f the total tonnage of the industry, reported their plants operating at 75 per cent of their normal monthly tonnage capacity. Production dropped from 27,078,000 in November to 23,000,000 in December. Shipments showed a seasonal trend when they declined from 22,833,000 to 9 207 000 during the same period. Unfilled orders on the last day of December amounted to 44,059,000. Of this total O hio is booked for 14,000,000. A recent report from the Common Brick M anufacturers Association states that the manufacturers are enjoying an unusual volume of January business. The spreading ou t of the construction peak has resulted in a more steady flow of business for the brick men and so far a? possible they are operating their plants all winter. C o m p a ra tive P ercentage S ta tistic s of C ities in th e Fourth Federal Reserve D istric t for 1924 a n d 1923 (Percentage increase or decrease during 1924 as compared with 1923) Building Debits to ipartment Permits Individual Store Accounts Sales 1.1 0.5 —4.3 —2.7 —10.1 —2.1 —2.1 —9.0 0.6 —6.1 1.8 — 1.9 — 1.3 Akron............ Canton........ Cincinnati. . . Cleveland. .. Columbus. .. Dayton........ Erie.............. Lexington... Pittsburgh. . Springfield.. Toledo.......... Wheeling. . . Youngstown. —1.8 Total. ^Includes East Cleveland, L akew ood and Shaker Heights. 17.9 7.9 —8.3 —9.7* —3.0 —5.1 65.1 —9.6 3.4 25.5 9.0 29.4 108.5 1.1 —0.1 —3.9 4.2 — 1.9 —0.8 0.8 —i.6 Wholesale Grocery Sales —3.2 1.3 0.5 —5.1 3*9 —7.1 — 1.7 —8' 2 —4.9 2.4 —6.5 — 1.3 — 1.9 —7*3 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS The trend of wholesale trade in this District during December was distinctWholesale Trade ly better than during November. While in November every reporting line showed declines in sales from 1923, all lines registered increases in December over the preceding year. In the case of Hardware, the gain amounted to 9 REVIEW 16.6 per cent. For the entire year all lines showed a de cline from 1923, the greatest loss being in Dry Goods, with 14.2 per cent. As compared with November, Groceries and Hardware showed decreases of 3.2 per cent and 6.0 per cent re spectively, while Dry Goods and Drugs showed increases of 4,6 per cent and 5.4 per cent. W holesale Trade Sales Number of Firms Reporting. GROCERIES— Akron..................................................... Cincinnati.............................................. Cleveland............................................... Columbus............................................... Erie..................................................... Lexington............................................... Pittsburgh............................................. Toledo.................................................... Youngstown.......................................... Other Cities*........................................ D I S T R I C T ...................................... Dry Goods—District.............................. Drugs— District........................................ Hardware— District................................. 3 3 4 3 4 3 7 3 3 22 55 19 16 18 Percentage change in Percentage change in Percentage change in net sales from Jan. 1, net sales during Dec., net sales during Dcc., to Dec. 31, 1924, com1924, compared with 1924, compared with pared with same period Nov., 1924. Dec., 1923. last year. 6.8 —4.2 —5.8 — 11.8 —2.0 —5.9 —9.5 —0.3 —5.3 1.4 —3.2 4.6 5.4 —6.0 11.9 6.9 2.9 —4.1 3.4 —7.9 —2.9 2.9 —12.3 5.9 2.5 11.9 5.3 16.6 —3.2 1.3 0.5 —5.1 3.9 —7.1 — 1.7 —6.5 —7.3 —5.0 —2.8 — 14.2 —2.6 —6.1 * Includes Butler, Canton, Connellsville, Dayton, Dover, Greensburg, Ironton, Lima, Mansfield, Massillon, Portsmouth, Springfield, Steubenville, Uniontown, Warren, Pa., Wheeling, and Xenia. Index N u m bers of Sales of W holesale Trade F ourth F ederal R eserve D istrict (Average Monthly Sales for the Five-Year Period 1919-1923, inclusive— 100) Groceries Dry Goods Drugs Hardware Groceries Dry Goods Drugs Hardware (53 firms) (18 firms) (15 firms) (17 firms) (53 firms) (18 firms) (15 firms) (17 firms 94 101 101 101 1922—Nov............ 1919— Year.......... 109 105 89 99 Dec............. 84 91 104 91 1920— Year........ 132 124 111 117 1921— Tan........... Feb........... March April........ May......... June......... July.......... Aug.......... Sept.......... Oct........... Nov........ Dec........... 81 82 95 83 83 89 84 91 89 91 84 76 69 87 108 91 78 82 69 95 109 107 86 74 100 92 105 96 89 93 90 93 97 97 93 90 77 77 104 105 90 92 73 79 84 87 80 65 74 74 85 73 74 77 61 99 107 110 91 93 104 90 92 97 90 96 99 102 60 66 88 90 98 100 83 96 101 107 1922—Jan........... Feb.......... March April........ May......... June......... July......... Aug.......... Sept.......... Oct. 69 67 81 70 80 90 81 89 92 94 1923—Jan............ Feb........... March... . April........ M av......... June......... July.......... Aug........... Sept.......... Oct............ Nov.......... Dec........... 79 76 86 86 90 97 89 94 100 110 97 84 97 95 109 86 84 91 81 120 116 114 96 77 115 109 120 106 107 105 103 109 107 117 106 101 93 96 122 125 125 118 103 107 110 122 103 79 1924—Jan............ Feb........... March. .. . April........ M ay......... June......... July.......... Aug............ Sept.......... Oct............ Nov.......... Dec........... 84 83 83 84 85 83 88 84 98 106 89 86 87 94 86 79 68 69 61 86 105 95 83 87 109 107 115 112 105 99 104 102 103 110 100 106 94 98 105 109 107 97 99 95 111 113 98 93 10 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS This bank's index of department store sales stood at the highest point for Retail Trade the last six years in December. The index numbers are as follows: 1919, 150; 1920, 165; 1921, 143; 1922, 165; 1923, 176; 1924, 178. Of eleven reporting cities, six showed increases over December, 1923, the greatest gain being shown by Akron, with 8.2 per cent. For the last six months of the year, the District showed a decrease of 3.6 per cent from 1923. The only cities showing increases were Akron, with 3.5 per cent, and REVIEW Cincinnati, with 1.3 per cent. The greatest decreases were shown by Toledo, with 11.9 per cent, and Canton, with 8.0 per cent. In the case of stocks on hand at the end of D ecem ber, as compared with the end of November, all cities showed a seasonal decrease, due to heavy Christmas busi ness. Four cities showed a gain in stocks over D ecem ber of last year, the largest being an increase of 9.7 per cent in New Castle. Of those showing decreases, the largest occurred in Cincinnati, with 9.7 per cent, and Youngstown, with 6.9 per cent. D e p a rtm en t S tore Sales Percentage of Increase or Decrease Comparison of Net Sales Comparison of Stocks Percentage of aver- Percentage of out at end of month age stocks at end of standing orders at July 1 to Dec. 31, n each month from end of Dec., 1924, Dec., 1924 1924, compared Dec., 1924, Dec.,, 1924, July 1 to ^ w m uber cr to tu torai Decem total purcnas purchases '11 t^ ________ i * r . No. of compared with with same compared with compared 31 to average monthduring calendar Reports Dec., 1923 period in Dec., 1923 with Nov., ly sales in same year 1923 1923 1924 period 8.2 —3.3 —16.5 4 Akron............................. 3.5 352. 0.8 — 8.9 —7.6 Canton........................... —8.0 3 702. —9.7 —21.5 7.1 7 1.3 Cincinnati..................... 381. 6.0 *—0.02 2.9 —16.5 6 —4. 8 Cleveland...................... 342. 4.3 — 5.3 3.9 —18.4 5 — 1.1 Columbus...................... 321. 6.5 1.7 —17.1 —0.7 5 —2.4 Dayton.......................... 369. 2.3 9.7 —16.2 — 1.3 —5.5 3 New Castle................... 573. 6.7 7 2.1 —14.3 ■—3.7 Pittsburgh..................... 369. 6*4 —3.5 —6.6 —11.3 5 — 11.9 Toledo............................ 480. 3.4 —5.6 —22.4 5 —7.7 —7.5 Wheeling....................... 388. 1.5 —6.9 —26.6 2.6 —2.1 3 Youngstown.................. 285. 7.1 7 2.0 —4.6 —16.4 Other Cities*................ 495. 4^6* 0.2 2,1 —16.4 —3.6 60 District.......................... 368. 5.0 — 1.0 —17.2 4.0 —0.04 U. S. Average.............. 355. 5.1 and Lima. *Includes reports from Erie, Portsmouth, Springfield, ngfield, Lima, Canton, and New Castle. **Includes reports from Erie, Portsmouth, Akron, Spri W earing A pp a rel S tore Sales Percentage of Increase or Decrease Comparison of Net Sales Comparison of Stocks at end of month July 1 to Dec. 31, Dec., 1924 1924, compared Dec., 1924, Dec., 1924, No. of ompared with with same compared with compared Dec., 1923 with Nov., Dec., 1923 Reports period in 1924 1923 —13.7 8.2 —31.5 10.1 6 Cincinnati............. 8.4 —2.7 37.7 4 —18.8 Cleveland.............. —6.6 —5.4 8.8 —27.4 9 Other Cities........ . —2.2 — 1.2 19.7 —24.4 19 District................ ........ *$ Firms **4 Firms Percentage of aver- Percentage o f o u t age stocks at end o f standing orders a t each month from end of D ec., 1924 July 1 to December to total sales durJ l, to average m o n th -in g calendar year ly sales in same 1923 period 166.0* 2 . 6* Index N u m b er o f Sales o f 55 D e p a rtm en t S tores F ourth Federal Reserve D istric t (Average Monthly Sales for the Five-Year Period 1919-1923 Inclusive__100) Akron Canton* Cincin- Cleve- Colum- Dayton New Wheel- Youngs- Other Dis bus nati land Castle burgh mg town Cities** trict 199 219 169 194 156 December.................................. 183 206 168 187 212 187 194 176 1924 117 109 107 102 93 99 98 June............................................ 115 100 115 111 104 108 95 87 78 84 80 86 83 79 83 July......................................... 89 79 78 80 92 93 91 88 78 92 August....................................... 83 84 85 76 105 75 87 108 118 109 September................................. 89 76 92 96 97 95 96 98 89 101 110 110 119 113 132 137 104 114 102 127 113 October...................................... 113 115 138 132 116 121 120 106 November................................. 107 119 106 120 122 111 119 207 212 December.................................. 174 177 191 169 203 170 175 195 192 205 178 •Based on 3-year average (1921-1922-1923) ••Includes Springfield, Portsmouth, and Erie. 1923 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 11 D ebits to In d ivid u a l A ccounts (In thousands of dollars) 1 2 3 4 5 4 weeks 1925 to 4 weeks 4 weeks % incr. or % incr. or ending ending ending deer. col. deer. col. date— (Jan. 1 to Jan. 14,1925 Dec. 17,1924 Jan. 16, 1924 lo v er 1 over Jan. 14) col. 2 col. 3 Akron......................................... 75,797 69,822 71,790 8.6 5.6 36,892 Butler, Pa................................. 10,222 10,159 10,301 0.6 —0.8 5,487 Canton....................................... 45,044 40,068 44,776 12.4 0.6 24,841 Cincinnati................................. 374,464 308,839 347,548 21.2 7.7 186,017 Cleveland.................................. 698,524 589,627 674,114 18.5 3.6 362,919 Columbus.................................. 134,558 126,793 130,871 6.1 2.8 69,140 4,464 Connellsville, Pa...................... 4,187 4,552 6.6 —1.9 2,121 Dayton...................................... 71,357 61,481 70,891 16.1 0.7 42,688 29,745 Erie, Pa..................................... 29,396 31,379 1.2 —5.2 15,439 Greensburg, Pa........................ 21,329 18,954 23,520 12.5 —9.3 9,845 3,836 Homestead, Pa......................... 4,103 4,015 —6.5 —4.5 1,918 Lexington, Ky.......................... 29,200 17,700 24,234 65.0 20.5 16,120 Lima........................................... 17,405 19,457 17,305 — 10.5 0.6 8,849 Lorain........................................ 6,164 6,464 5,661 —4.6 8.9 3,325 * Middletown.............................. ............ * Oil City, Pa.............................. 12,047 13,861 11,508 4.7 6,246 —13.1 Pittsburgh, Pa.......................... 917,011 819,791 822,673 11.5 459,729 11.9 Springfield................................. 20,991 17,285 19,585 21.4 7.2 11,351 Toledo........................................ 175,954 161,365 177,591 9.0 —0 .9 106,465 Warren....................................... 13,159 12,727 16.4 11,303 7,202 3.4 Wheeling, W. Va..................... 45,654 47,497 8.7 41,994 24,757 —3.9 Youngstown.............................. 69,088 59,981 66,612 15.2 3.7 42,953 Zanesville................................... 10,917 11,939 —6.9 11,723 — 8.6 5,742 Total.................................. 2,786,930 2,630,560 2,444,882 1,450,046 14.0 5.9 •Incomplete. 1924 to date— (Jan. 3 to Jan. 16) 38,513 5,229 24,234 161,047 316,872 66,073 2,394 38,526 17,293 12,544 1,943 13,891 8,332 2,932 8 % incr.r or deer. col. 6 over col. 7 —4.2 4.9 2.5 15.5 14.5 4.6 —11.4 10.8 —10.7 —21.5 —1.3 16.0 6.2 13.4 * 8,459 408,097 10,489 86,954 6,928 25,503 35,105 6,282 1,297,640 ♦ —26.2 12.7 8. 2 22.4 4.0 —2.9 22.4 — 8.6 11.7 B uilding O perations December 1924-1923 Akron.......... Canton........ Cincinnati. . Cleveland*.. Columbus... Dayton........ Erie.............. Lexington... Pittsburgh. . Springfield. . Toledo......... Wheeling. . . Youngstown. Total... Year 1924-1923 % incr. or deer. ]Sro. Permits Issued j. Permits Issued Valuation Valuation or deer. 1924 1923 1924 1923 in value 1923 1924 1924 in value 1923 240 261 $ 434,687 177.1 $1,204,513 17.9 4515 3902 $ 8,837,420 $ 7,493,066 97 475,207 —52.3 193 226,868 3112 7,396,197 7.9 3247 7,982,409 314 2,361,160 —26.5 331 1,735,420 —8.3 6463 7272 24,423,470 26,646,545 903 1156 5,470,280 12,461,170 —56.1 —9.7 20024 20380 81,726,822 90,530,909 284 290 5,489,700 826,400 564.3 —3.0 6288 7004 21,625,900 22,296,800 141 154 871,359 432,284 101.6 10,275,439 3741 —5.1 4149 9,748,369 153 119 1,147,560 344,960 232.7 2281 1944 4,262,524 65.1 7,036,300 24,389 37 —73.8 50 93,210 869 1,947,487 —9.6 897 1,760,703 408 2,515,006 500 3,171,083 —20.7 8275 33,119,009 7179 3.4 34,256,450 23 51 270,250 43,645 519.2 1196 1268 1,532,805 25.5 1,923,876 250 30.6 781,708 598,590 312 7077 15,536,846 9 .0 6610 16,929,710 57 84 138,288 231,685 —40.3 1484 3,986,341 29.4 5,157,876 1385 141 —8.8 180 431,365 472,790 3016 2394 11,833,990 5,676,970 108.5 3065 3664 $20,306,706 $21,946,871 —7.5 68,341 67,631 $233,243,295 $230,700,938 1.1 3 for East Cleveland, Lakewood, and Shaker Heights. % incr. E xplanation o f C h arts on F ollow ing Page Ail charts are monthly and have a relative scale; i. e., ?he actual 5-year average in figures equals 100. Sources of information and latest figures are as follows: 1. Member Bank Credit. (Figures for last week in :nonth covering 800 member banks of F. R- System) De cember, Loans, 113, Investments, 136. 2. Member Bank Deposits. (Same as preceding) D e cember, Demand Deposits, 123, Time Deposits, 163. 3. Check Payments. (Debits to individual accounts at 140 cities, excluding New York) November, 108, 4. Commercial Failures. (Number of failures reported by Dun’s), December, 158. 5. Retail Trade. (F. R. Board’s index of about 350 itorei recomputed to 1919-1923 base). December, 184. 6. W holesale Trade (F. R. Board's index of numerous wholesale lines recomputed to 1919-23 base) November, 96, 7. Building Permits. (About Bradstreet’s) December, 151. 175 cities reported by 8. Car Loadings. (W eekly ligures of the Amer. Ry Assoc, converted into a monthly basis) December, 102. 9. Exports of Merchandise. (Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce) December. 93. 10. Bituminous December, 111. 11. Coal Production. Pig Iron Production. (Geological Survey) (Iron A ge) December, 118. 12. Automobile Production. (National Chamber of Commerce) December, 101. Automobile Indexes o f N ation al B usiness C on ditions The bate (100) for all the charts except the first is the monthly average for the five years 1919-1923 inclusive. For the first chart the base is the monthly average for the three years 1921-1923. For further explanations, see preceding page. „.XST LUf1E of PArrtErr* btchcck tu>\--------- ----------— ------- ------------- K> M » L Ml r ttao n it »»n mo im rW H O L E S A L E 1920 CAR L O A D IN G S P E * CfcNT 2 SO COJT 250 200 200 160 ISO 100 A /V V 1T 100 SO SO o 0 1919 i» to |» 2 I 19 2 2 1923 19 2 ^ |>zi 1922 TRADE ’<» HIT 19X3
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