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MONTHLY
DECEMBER 1949
Keview
CONTENTS
Prospects for 1950 Farm Income
.
.
1
Industrial R e tro s p e c t......................... 4
Announcements
............................. 5
Index to Special Articles— Volume 31
. 5
Statistical T a b l e s ..............................12
FINA NCE • IN DUS TR Y • AGRICULTURE • TRADE
FOURTH
FEDERAL
RESERVE
D IS T R IC T
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Vol. 31— No. 12
Cleveland 1, Ohio
Prospects for 1950 Farm Income
T
HE income of farmers, although still high, is
falling faster than that of most other economic
groups.
The all-time peak in annual net income of farm
operators was reached in 1947.(1) The subsequent
decline was comparatively moderate in its initial
stages, but this year’s net income is estimated at 15
percent below the 1948 figure and another 15 per
cent drop next year is probable. In that event an
nual farm income in 1950 would be about one-third
below the 1947 peak, but it would still be larger
than prewar income—even in terms of real buying
power.
Admittedly these national averages conceal wide
variations according to commodities produced, agri
cultural regions, and the efficiency of individual
farms; but they indicate trends which affect all
farmers.
Supply of
important element in the farm
Farm Products income picture is the physical vol
ume of farm production, which
in total next year may be only slightly below the
all-time record achieved in 1948 and approximated
this year.
Crop acreage is likely to be lower in 1950 due to
Federal restrictions on plantings of corn, cotton,
wheat and some other crops. This reduction, as well
as the probability of more nearly average weather
conditions, indicates a smaller total of crop produc
tion. On the other hand, a gradual expansion in
livestock numbers which began last year is now in
creasing the production of meat and dairy and
poultry products. These two diverse trends may
(') “ Net income” here refers to realized net income without adjust
ment for changes in inventory valuation. Inclusion of this intangible
item shows the total bookkeeping returns to operators to have been
slightly higher in 1948 than in 1947.
largely offset each other with the net result that
1950 is likely to be another year of large agricultural
production.
The high rate of output in a period of slowly de
clining demand has resulted in a rise in the carry-over
of several crops.(2) A large part of these stocks has
been taken out of the market by the Government in
price-support operations. Nevertheless, free-market
supplies of the major grains have been large enough
to depress prices below support levels.
The other significant element in the farm
income situation is the probability of
shrinking demand for this large supply
of agricultural products. Consumer demand for all
goods and services is probably a little lower now than
a year ago. This is mainly because of a small de
crease in incomes resulting from shorter industrial
working hours and the consequent loss of overtime
pay.
Agricultural products are particularly affected by
a recent shift in the pattern of consumer expenditures.
Total expenditure has remained generally stable de
spite slightly lower incomes; but the portion spent on
food and clothing has decreased, while the portion
used for automobiles and other durable goods has
increased. This change appears to reflect the end of
war-caused shortages and a return more nearly to
prewar relationships. Before the war, for instance,
the average consumer spent about 23 percent of his
available income for food. In 1948 food expendi
tures were as much as 28 percent of money income
available, but by the middle of 1949 the proportion
was back down to 26 percent, and a further reduc
tion in consumers’ outlays for food is possible.
Domestic
Demand
<2) The November issue of this Revieiv contained an article on some
of the implications of crop surpluses.
Monthly Business Review
Page 2
FARM INCOME AND PRODUCTION EXPENSES
United States, selected years
AVERAGE
. . . when gross £arm income reached an all-time peak in
1948, net income of farm operators had already begun to
decline. This contraction of net income is expected to
continue into 1950 partly because of the relative stability
of production expenses.
* Based upon published estimates of the Department o f Agriculture
in Farm Incom e Situation, September-October, 1949; and “ Agricultural
Outlook” , address by O. C. Stine at Annual Agricultural Outlook Con
ference, October 31, 1949.
N O T E : Production expenses include current operating outlays, mainte
nance, taxes, interest and net rent to landlords not living on farms.
Net income represents net realized incomes of farm operators.
U. S. Department o f Agriculture data.
Along with the prospect of slightly lower
domestic demand there is great doubt that
foreign demand will continue at current
high levels. Effective foreign demand is limited by
the am ount of dollar exchange available; private
trade and investment do not supply sufficient dollars
to support the present level of exports. Governmen
tal grants and loans, therefore, constitute the sus
taining and critical factor. These Government funds
financed nearly three-fifths of all agricultural exports
in the year ended last June. It now appears that
United States outlays for foreign aid will be less in
1950 than in 1949. Consequently, foreign demand
for American agricultural goods will probably de
cline slowly. An added stimulus to the probable
trend is the slow recovery of foreign agricultural
production from the devastation of war.
Recent widespread devaluation of foreign cur
rencies also tends to depress foreign demand, but its
effect on total agricultural exports is expected to be
rather mild. The needs of importing countries are
still large, and they will probably continue to utilize
nearly all available dollar exchange for imports.
There may be some shifts in demand, however,
among the various types of agricultural exports.
Foreign
Demand
Prevailing trends in demand and supply
have resulted in a lowering of average farm
prices which began in 1948 and will probably con
Prices
December 1, 1949
tinue through 1950. Some decline next year is likely
for nearly all groups of farm commodities, but due
to the anticipated increase in production of livestock
and livestock products, this group may register a
greater average price drop than crops.
Falling farm prices are bringing price-support
operations increasingly into play. The Government's
investment in agricultural commodities is now about
$3 billion, or about double what it was a year ago.
The Agricultural Act of 1949 provides support at
90 percent of parity for the 1950 crops of “basic”
commodities (com, cotton, wheat, tobacco, rice and
peanuts); at 75 to 90 percent for whole milk and
butterfat; and at 60 to 90 percent for wool (including
mohair), potatoes, tung nuts and honey. Support for
other commodities is not mandatory but may be set
at any level up to 90 percent of parity at the discre
tion of the Secretary of Agriculture.
The method of computing parity prices has also
been changed. Except for corn, cotton, wheat and
peanuts, for which the present formula will probably
be used, parity prices will be computed by a new
formula which gives somewhat higher parities.
Price supports will not entirely prevent further
declines in farm prices, however, because for one
thing, a number of important commodities are still
selling at varying margins above maximum support
levels.
Lower prices will mean lower cash re
ceipts, since the total physical volume of
marketings is not likely to be much, if any, larger
than in 1949. It is anticipated that gross receipts
for next year as a whole will be about 10 percent
lower than this year.
The large 1949 crops will help maintain crop
marketings—and cash receipts—in the first half of
1950, but production control programs will prob
ably effect some reduction in the latter part of the
year. For livestock and livestock products, it is ex
pected that lower prices will more than offset a small
increase in tonnage marketed.
The prospective further decline in cash receipts
may result in a reduction of as much as 15 percent
in net income (the residual income after operating
costs are paid). The reason for this is that farm
costs are relatively stable. For instance, the index
of prices paid by farmers did not begin to recede
from the 1948 peak until several months after prices
received had turned down. The gradual reduction
in prices paid—about 5 percent from the peak—
has thus far been primarily on account of processed
farm products, mainly feedstuffs. It is probable
that farmers’ costs will again in 1950 show no more
than a moderate decline. This conclusion is sup
ported by the fact that industrial wage rates are
remaining virtually at the all-time high.
Income
December 1, 1949
Monthly Business Review
PHYSICAL VOLUME OF FARM PRODUCTION
Crops and Livestock (including livestock products)
United States, 1940-1949
(1935-1939 = 100)
1935- 39-1 0 0
180%
Page 3
CHANGES IN FARMERS’ PRICES SINCE 1940
Annual average percentages
Prices Received and Prices Paid
1935 - 39-100
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
. . . although crop production in 1950 cannot be estimated
at this early date, the probability is that total agricultural
production (crops and livestock) next year will be close
to the record highs of recent years.
* Preliminary.
U.
S. Department of Agriculture data.
The decline in cash receipts of Fourth
District farmers probably will be a little
less than the national average of 10 per
cent. Farmers of this District are relatively close to
urban markets, and the types of farming are suffi
ciently varied to avoid extreme divergence from the
national average. As usual, however, there is no
uniformity of outlook among the many different
kinds of agricultural products. Cash receipts from
poultry products, for example, may fall more sharply
than the national average for all farm products. On
the other hand, cash income from the production
of beef cattle in 1950 may be only slightly below
this year’s returns, and next year’s income of fruit
growers may equal the 1949 figure. The outlook
for the latter product is based on an unusual supply
condition—unusually heavy yields of noncitrus fruits
this year weakened prices in a manner that is likely
to be only temporary.
The relatively favorable outlook for receipts from
beef cattle in 1950 is based on the prospect that very
little of the expected 3 or 4 percent increase in total
meat supply will be in the form of beef and veal.
Cattlemen throughout the country are holding back
cows and calves for further herd expansion, thus
postponing the increase in market beef. Competition
Fourth
District
. . . prices received have been declining more rapidly than
prices paid, and further moderate declines are in prospect.
The ratio, however, is still more favorable to agriculture
than it was in such years as 1940 and 1941.
* 10 months only.
Source of data: U. S. Department of Agriculture, Index of Prices
Paid (including interest and taxes) and Index of Prices Received.
from increasing pork supply will place some pres
sure on prices, but with continuing strong demand
for beef, cattle prices are likely to average only a
little below the 1949 level.
The unfavorable outlook for poultry products
arises from the prospect of an egg surplus. Egg pro
duction in the first 6 or 8 months of 1950 appears
likely to exceed the corresponding 1949 output by
3 or 4 percent. Prices may be lower than a year
earlier by 10 to 15 percent unless the Government
makes purchases to prevent the decline. The largescale price-support buying of recent months may
legally be discontinued after December 31 at the
discretion of the Secretary of Agriculture, and this
discretion is legislatively limited by, among other
things, the funds remaining after provision for man
datory supports. It cannot now be predicted whether
the benefit of the indicated egg surplus will accrue
to consumers by way of lower prices or to poultrymen by way of supported prices.
If a price drop is allowed to materialize and if it
goes as far as anticipated, substantial marketing of
hens may begin in the spring, driving poultry prices
down also.
Note: This discussion was based on information published bv the
S. Department of Agriculture.
U.
Page 4
Monthly Business Review
Industrial Retrospect
*I"*' HE highlight of the year’s record of industrial
* production was the upswing in manufacturing
activity that developed in late summer after more
than six months of steady decline. The low point
was touched in July and recovery was well under
way in August and September until interrupted by
the occurrence of prolonged labor disputes in the
steel, coal, and aluminum industries.
The physical volume of industrial production as
measured by the Federal Reserve Board index of
production attained its postwar peak in the fourth
quarter of 1948 when it averaged 194 or 94 percent
above the 1935-1939 base period. From that level
the index declined 4 percent in the first quarter, 7.5
percent in the second, and 3 percent in the third,
for a total drop of 13 percent. Actually, the low
point was reached in July at 161. Further, it should
be noted that the Federal Reserve Board has not
as yet made full seasonal allowance for the new post
war pattern of plant-wide vacations usually concen
trated in the month of July. Correction for this
factor would raise the July index perhaps as much
as 5 points. At any rate, production in September
was more than 7 percent above July, only to return
nearly to the July level in October by the loss of
steel and coal production. Resumption of output in
these two industries in November has again turned
the index upward. For the first 10 months, pro
duction averaged 76 percent above the 1935-1939
average rate as compared with 91 percent above in
the comparable 1948 months.
Durable goods manufacturing industries accounted
for the major part of the 1949 slump. The durable
goods production index dropped from the very high
fourth quarter 1948 average of 230, to 192 in the
third quarter of 1949 for a loss of 17 percent. Twothirds of the decline took place in the second quarter
as output dropped sharply in basic steel and pig iron,
machinery, metal fabricating, household appliance,
building material, and nonferrous metal industries.
The contraction would have been even more marked
had it not been partly offset by the rising tide of
automobile and parts output.
Since August there has been a notable increase in
the output of such durable goods as furniture, house
hold electric appliances, and various building ma
terials. But, fourth quarter durable goods output
will be somewhat erratic due to the strike loss of
about 10 million tons of steel ingots and the sub
sequent interruption to the metal processing and
fabricating trades. Automobile and truck produc
tion will also be sharply lower in November and
December because of both steel supply difficulties
and rearrangement of facilities for the introduction
of
1950 models. For the first 10 months, durable
December 1, 1949
goods production averaged 104 percent above the
1935-39 level as compared with a margin of 123
percent in 1948.
The decline in nondurable goods production ended
in the second quarter of the year at a level of 9
percent under the final 1948 quarter. Vacations in
July were largely responsible for a further dip in
the nondurable goods index but September output
was nearly 11 percent above the mid-year low. The
largest gains, which in some cases were almost spec
tacular, were achieved by paper and products, shoes,
cotton and woolen textiles, and rayon industries.
While the declines in industrial production that
have been noted were taking place, total retail sales
volume was maintained at a fairly stable rate and
probably, in the aggregate, did not vary more than
1 percent from year-ago levels. As a consequence,
the inventory accumulation which had been taking
place at all levels since the end of the war was re
versed in the first quarter of 1949 and a substantial
amount of liquidation occurred over the next six
months. Much of the decline can therefore be ex
plained in terms of inventory liquidation by manu
facturers, wholesalers, and retailers. It now appears
that some degree of inventory accumulation is taking
place. Stocks which had been reduced below practi
cal working levels are being balanced to meet the
present rate of business activity.
Iron & The steel industry in the first quarter of
Steel
1949 finally overcame the shortages of steel
that had plagued producers since the end
STEEL PRODUCTION
1949 As Against Previous Years
M IL L IO N S
O F TO N S
I0|—
M IL L IO N S
O F TO N S
0
. . . from an all-time high in the first quarter, steel produc
tion sagged to a postwar low by midsummer as a result of
cutbacks in many durable goods. The fourth quarter strike
caused a loss of over 10 million tons.
E Estimated.
Source of data: American Iron & Steel Institute.
December 1, 1949
Monthly Business Review
of the war, and at times had even brought threats
of government entrance into the field to expand
capacity. Production of steel ingots and steel for
casting broke all records in the first quarter with
output at 101.5 percent of capacity or 24.1 million
tons.
The spring decline in production of nearly all
durable goods except automobiles, however, caught
up with steel producers and output dropped to 91
percent of capacity in the second quarter and to
about 79 percent in the third quarter. For the first
nine months, output totaled 65 million tons, or just
a shade below the 1948 level.
Steel production in August and September was
stimulated somewhat by consumer fear of an indus
try strike. Further additions to steel inventories were
made so that during October and the first part of
November, steel users were affected very little by
the lack of steel.
With nearly all major producers strikebound,
October production was less than a million tons and
output in November was probably less than 3.5 mil
lion tons. If output averages 90 percent of capacity
this month, total production for the year will
amount to 76.6 million tons, or 12 million tons less
than in 1948. By virtue of the extended strike, steel
shortages which had disappeared, thus returned and
apparently will persist well into the first quarter of
1950.
The steel strike which commenced on October 1
was called for the purpose of obtaining a program
of company-financed social insurance and old age
pensions. The union desired a program which would
cost $80 a year per employee for life insurance, hos
pitalization, etc., and a pension plan to cost $120
per man per year which it was stated would yield
monthly retirement benefits at age 65 of $100, in
cluding federal social security benefits.
The steel producing companies were willing to
negotiate on these proposals, but insisted that any
plan should provide for employee contributions. On
the 31st day of the strike the Bethlehem Steel Com
pany signed a contract with the G. I. O. United
Steel Workers. This company, for the past 26 years,
had had in operation a noncontributory pension plan
which provided monthly benefits averaging $46.
Within the following ten days other major steel com
panies reached agreements with the union. All con
tracts were reported to be similar to the Bethlehem
agreement.
According to press reports, the pension plans are
on a noncontributory basis. Employees will receive
a minimum pension of $100 a month, including
federal social security payments, at age 65 and after
25 years of service. Individual pensions are com
puted by multiplying the number of years of service
by 1 percent of average earnings over the last 10
years before retirement. Reduced pensions are pay
( c o n t i n u e d o n pa<*e 6 )
Page 5
A N N O U N C EM EN T S
Mr. John D. Bainer, President, The Merchants
National Bank and Trust Company of Meadville,
Meadville, Pennsylvania, has been re-elected as a
Class A director of this bank for a term of three
years beginning January 1, 1950.
Mr. Edward C. Doll, President, Lovell Manu
facturing Company, Erie, Pennsylvania, has been
elected as a Class B director of this bank for a term
of three years beginning January 1, 1950. He suc
ceeds Mr. Ross Pier Wright of Erie, Pennsylvania,
a Class B director of this bank since January 1,
1917, who was not a candidate for re-election.
INDEX
Special Articles — Volume 31
INDUSTRY
Is Delivered Pricing Illegal?
The Scope of Postwar Steel
Expansion ........................
Expansion of Steel-Finishing
Facilities .............................
Importance of Fourth District
Manufacturing ................
Industrial Activity in Selected
Fourth District Counties
Changes in Ohio’s Leading
Industries—1939 to 1947
Feb. 1 — Page 5
May 1 — Page 6
June 1 — Page 4
July 1 — Page 1
Sept. 1 — Page 5
Oct. 1 — Page 5
AGRICULTURE
The Corn Situation ................
Does Farm Forestry Pay? .....
What’s Happening in Dairy
Farming .............................
The Outlook for Burley Tobacco
Growers ........................................
Some Implications of a Good
Harvest ........................................
Apr. 1 — Page 5
June 1 — Page 1
Aug. 1 — Page 1
Sept. 1 — Page 8
Nov. 1 — Page 6
TRADE
Trade Volume in a Period of
Falling Prices . .
Department Store Trade in a Period
of Declining Payrolls ...
Seasonal Swings in Department
Store Trade .....................................
Department Store Sales, Variations
Among Major Departments .......
Trade Goals for the Christmas
Season
.......................................
May 1 — Page 1
June 1 — Page 7
Aug. 1 — Page 5
Sept. 1 — Page 1
Nov. 1 — Page 1
Page 6
Monthly Business Review
able after 15 years of service. Retirement is not
compulsory at age 65. Disability pensions are also
provided after 15 years of service.
The cost of the social security package of five cents
an hour will be shared equally by company and em
ployee. Benefits will include life insurance, a paid-up
life policy upon retirement, temporary disability
benefits, and hospitalization for employees and de
pendents. Most contracts provide that the insurance
and pension clauses cannot be changed for the next
five years.
Final costs will not be known until complete de
tails are worked out by the company actuaries, but
unofficial estimates place costs at between $3 and $4
per ton at 80 percent of capacity. The prospects for
a reduction in steel prices have been greatly dimin
ished by the injection of this additional cost of
manufacture.
Gray iron foundry activity slumped sharply in
1949 from the record levels prevailing in 1948 when
shipments averaged over one million tons a month.
Cumulative shipments for the January-September
period were 12 percent below the year-ago perform
ance with September shipments down 19 percent.
Unfilled orders for sale at the end of September
were little more than two months’ business and were
62 percent lower than a year ago. Activity in cap
tive shops was maintained at a higher rate than in
the independent jobbing shops.
The divergent trend between steel ingot produc
tion and gray iron shipments is largely explained
by reduced activity in a number of industries that
are heavy users of gray iron. Shipments were off
sharply to railroad shops and freight car builders as
well as machine tool builders and other machinery
producers. Cast iron soil pipe and pressure pipe
foundries also finally caught up with backlog and
restored field inventories during the winter and spring
quarters when building activity was low. The foun
dry industry is also losing some ground due to the
tendency of manufacturers to use more steel stamp
ings and weldments in place of castings.
Malleable iron casting activity declined even more
than gray iron. Shipments for the first 9 months
of 1949 were 21 percent below the same period of
last year. Unfilled orders at the end of September
were about one-third the tonnage on the books 12
months ago. Despite these cumulative production
losses from year-ago performance, producers of fer
rous castings were encouraged by the late summer
rise in orders and production from the low levels
prevailing at mid-year.
Shipments of Lake Superior iron ore were, for all
practical purposes, brought to a premature end on
October 1 with the beginning of the steel strike. The
principal iron mines were struck and workers refused
to unload ore at the steel mills. As a consequence
only 1/1 2 million tons of ore were moved in October
as compared with more than 10 million tons last
December 1, 1949
year. Early in November, some steamship companies
began to lay up their boats for the winter months
as fast as the last cargoes could be discharged and
dockage space arranged.
For the season to November 1, Lake Superior iron
ore shipments totaled 68 million tons as compared
with 75 million tons for the comparable 1948 period,
and 83 million tons for the entire 1948 season. The
peak of ore traffic was reached in July and then
began to taper off in August and September as it
became apparent that steel mills would not maintain
output at the rate prevailing in the first half of the
year. If the duration of the shipping disruption had
been anticipated, undoubtedly more ore would have
been moved in the third quarter of the year.
Stocks of Lake Superior iron ore at furnaces and
docks amounted to 47 million tons on November 1.
Consumption of ore in November probably did not
exceed 3 /2 million tons. If it is assumed that month
ly consumption until April 1 averages 7 million tons,
then stocks at the beginning of the shipping season
will approximate 15 million tons. This would be
the lowest on record and might cause some hardship
to individual mills.
Finished steel and pig iron prices changed little
during the past year. Iron Age's composite finished
steel base price stood at 3.705 cents per pound on
November 22, 1949 as compared with 3.720 cents a
year ago. Pig iron prices were $45.88 per gross ton
on November 22, 1949, and $46.91 a year ago, a de
cline of little more than 2 percent. The more sensi
tive scrap steel prices, however, reacted sharply to
the lack of demand this spring and summer and
dropped from a level of $43.00 a ton in January to
$19.33 by the end of June. Prices firmed again as
steel ingot production advanced in August and by
November had reached $29.92.
Coal Conditions in the coal industry in 1949 may be
described with one word—chaotic. To the
end of November there had been three industry-wide
strikes: March 14-27, a so-called “memorial stop
page” ; June 13-20, “a brief stabilizing period of
inaction” ; September 19-November 9, a “refusal to
work without a contract”. In addition, the miners
did not work for 10 days during the June-July vaca
tion period and from July 5 through September 18,
were ordered by the union to work only 3 days a
week. When the miners were ordered back to work
on November 9, it was announced that another strike
would begin at the end of the month unless a new
work contract had been signed.
The principal motive behind these multiple work
stoppages and short work weeks appeared to be a
determination to reduce excessive coal inventories so
that a more favorable contract could be obtained
from the mine operators. Efforts to reduce bitumi
nous coal inventories during the year, however, were
remarkably unsuccessful in the main. Total bitumi
December 1, 1949
Monthly Business Review
nous coal inventories amounted to 69.4 million tons
at the beginning of the year and despite two work
stoppages advanced to 74.2 million tons by July 1.
By October 1 there were still 62 million tons on
hand of which 59.9 million tons were industrial
stocks, equal to 66 days’ supply. In terms of days’
supply, most industry was fairly well situated when
the latest coal strike began: coke ovens, 49 days;
steel mills, 59 days; cement mills, 68 days; and rail
roads, 43 days.
The steel strike, of course, reduced that industry’s
coal consumption by about 90 percent during Octo
ber and also reduced coke oven consumption so that
when steel production resumed in November, stocks
in these industries were still near the October 1 level.
However, stocks at steel mills were poorly distributed
with several companies having as little as 2 or 3
weeks’ supply on hand. Railroad stocks were also
low and some coal burning runs were eliminated to
conserve fuel. The hardest hit group appeared to
be household consumers and public institutions, both
of whose fuel inventories were relatively low at the
start of the strike.
One of the indirect results of the strike has
been to accelerate the movement of all classes of
consumers to adopt oil and gas fuel burning equip
ment wherever such moves were feasible. Class I
railroads, for example, installed 1,381 diesel and 49
steam locomotives this year, and had on order on
October 1, 775 diesel and only 21 steam locomotives.
Dieselization is also spreading to Canada and prom
ises soon to diminish a lucrative United States coal
export business.
Consumption of fuel by electric utilities in Sep
tember 1949 as compared with September 1948 illus
trates further the drift from coal. Coal consumption
declined 23 percent, oil increased 99 percent and
gas increased 7 percent.
Changes in the kinds of residential warm air
furnaces shipped by manufacturers in the first 8
months of the year as compared with the same
months in 1948 reflect the same shift away from coal
burning equipment. Total shipments for the period
were down 15 percent. The number of solid fuel
burning furnaces (mainly coal) shipped declined 46
per cent while oil furnaces rose 8 percent and gas
increased 28 percent. Preliminary reports indicate
that September and October installations of gas and
oil furnaces were soaring and that the demand for
coal heating equipment had virtually dried up.
Total United States bituminous coal production
for the year through the week ended November 19
amounted to 373 million tons, a reduction of 30 per
cent from the 535 million tons turned out in the
like 1948 period. Although recent District figures
are unavailable, the decline in coal production was
probably somewhat greater than for the nation as
a whole. This would be due to a higher degree of
Page 7
UNTTED STATES AUTOMOBILE PRODUCTION
1949 As Against Previous Years
rHOUSANDS
)F U N IT S
TH O U S A N D S
UNI
or
Is
. . . automobile production has been at an all-time high
each month since June, and output for the year will break
the previous (1929) record. The margin over 1948, however,
is shrinking because of the steel strike.
E Estimated.
Source of data: Automobile Manufacturers Association.
unionization of mines and thus more complete shut
downs during the strikes as well as the more pro
nounced decline in District industrial activity in 1949
because of the importance of durable goods industries.
The record-breaking performance of the
automobile industry this year was one of
the brightest spots in the nation’s economic
picture and did much to sustain total industrial
production.
Estimated United States factory sales of passenger
cars for the first 10 months of the year totaled 4,450,000 units, or an increase of 41 percent over the com
parable months of 1948, and 14 percent higher than
3.900.000 units turned out in all of 1948. By the
end of October, the industry was virtually assured
of breaking the all-time record for passenger car out
put established in 1929 when 4,587,000 units were
sold in the entire year.
In both August and September factory sales of
557.000 and 534,000 cars, respectively, were at the
highest monthly rates ever achieved. The beginning
of model changeovers in October and reduction in
steel supplies caused October production to drop
about 45,000 units from September. Output was
further restricted in November and will be reduced
still more in the last month of the year because of
both extensive switches to 1950 models and delayed
steel deliveries. It is likely that steel supply limita
tions will be felt well into January 1950.
The shortage of steel and the consequent effect
upon factory shipments was not entirely unwelcome
to many new car dealers. Trade reports indicated
toward the end of the third quarter, that retail in
ventories of manv makes and models were increasing
Motor
Vehicles
Page 8
Monthly Business Review
rapidly and that dealers were reverting to prewar
practices to keep their stocks moving. These prac
tices included more attractive trade-in allowances,
cash discounts, and in some instances, down payments
of $100 with monthly payments of only $40 for the
lower priced cars. There were also reports of dealer
complaints that shipments of cars were being made
in excess of orders placed with factories.
United States truck and bus factory shipments for
the first 10 months of 1949 were estimated at about
985,000 units, down 15 percent from the comparable
months of 1948. Even at this reduced rate of pro
duction, it is reported that dealers were being re
quired to accept more trucks than they had ordered.
This was particularly true of dealers that handled
both passenger cars and trucks produced by the same
manufacturer. Perhaps as a consequence, truck sales
by the companies that produce both passenger
vehicles and trucks were maintained at a higher rate
than that experienced by the exclusive truck manu
facturer. Late in the fourth quarter demand for new
trucks appeared to be picking up from previous levels.
For the tire manufacturers this year was
marked by the complete return to the old
bitter prewar competitive struggle for business and a
marked reduction in profit margins.
Early spring saw the introduction by leading com
panies of a fourth line of passenger casings in a bid
for the lowest price market, and a lower priced line
of truck casings. In an effort to stimulate sales, a
major oil company slashed retail prices 19 percent
in May. Manufacturers partially met this cut in
June by reducing list prices 5 percent on premium
and low pressure tires, and 7 / 2 percent on standard
first line tires. These price cuts were the first since
Rubber
PASSENGER CAR TIRE PRODUCTION
1949 As Against Previous Years
M IL L IO N S
O F U N ITS
I
. . . passenger tire production this year will be the smallest
in four years, but shipments (not shown above) will be
about the same as in 1948.
Source of data: The Rubber Manufacturers Association.
December 1, 1949
the wave of reductions in June 1947 which were par
tially eliminated 12 months later when prices were
marked up 5 percent.
Competition and lowered margins were at least
partially responsible for the closing of two of the
District’s tire plants. An independent producer at
Newark, Ohio, attempted without success to obtain
union consent to reset labor rates in mid-1948. By
the fall of the year, it was decided to liquidate the
company and this has now been accomplished. In
another part of the District, a tire factory at Jean
nette, Pennsylvania, was closed in the summer of
1949 and its tire and tube facilities were consolidated
with another producer at Mansfield, Ohio.
Other evidence of the general competitive struggle
is found in a recent Federal Trade Commission de
cision to issue an order limiting quantity discounts
that manufacturers may grant various classes of cus
tomers. Authority for such action is found in the
Robinson-Patman Act, and independent tire dealers
have long complained about the pricing practices of
manufacturers. Present list prices have a spread of
as much as 30 percent between the smallest and
largest buyers.
The Federal Trade Commission now proposes that
a carload of 20,000 pounds be the maximum quantity
of replacement tire and tubes upon which a quantity
discount may be granted. Such a ruling would, of
course, greatly diminish the competitive differential
prevailing between the independent dealer on one
hand and the chain distributors such as oil companies
and mail order houses on the other hand. Hearings
on this proposed rule will be conducted in December.
During the first 9 months of the year passenger car
tire shipments totaled nearly 51 million units to sur
pass the comparable 1948 period by slightly more than
2 percent. Preliminary reports indicate that fourth
quarter shipments will be about in line with year-ago
performance so that the year should see little change
from 1948 total shipments of 63 1/2 million casings.
Despite these comparable totals, the industry ex
perienced a broad change in the character of its
market in 1949 and was saved from a relatively poor
year by the expansion of new motor vehicle produc
tion. Original equipment sales in the first three quar
ters of the year totaled 21.9 million units, a sharp
gain of 40 percent from the like 1948 period. Re
placement sales, however, definitely were below expec
tations and dropped 15 percent to a total of 28.4
million units. As a consequence, smaller tire com
panies that produce almost exclusively for this mar
ket were adversely affected. Export sales shrank 25
percent to the low total of 355,000 units.
Passenger car tire production in the 9-month period
amounted to 49.1 million units, or a 5 percent reduc
tion from 1948. With output lower than sales, the
industry reduced finished inventories.
Truck and bus tire shipments dipped to 8.6 mil
December 1, 1949
Monthly Business Review
lion units for a drop of 21 percent in the first 9 months
as compared with the same months in 1948. Pre
liminary reports indicate that the year’s total ship
ments will approximate 11 million casings or 3.2
million below a year ago.
This decline was due in large part to the recession
in total new truck and bus production and the rise in
the output of smaller trucks that use passenger car
type tires. Accordingly, original equipment sales
amounted to only 2.8 million units in the 9-month
period, a drop of 31 percent from 1948. Replacement
truck and bus tire sales totaled 5 million units, down
15 percent, and export sales declined by the same
percentage.
Production of truck and bus casings was off 24
percent in the first three quarters of the year to a
total of 8.4 million units and inventories declined
about 7 percent. Output for the year should just
about equal total shipments. Stocks of 7.1 million
casings on October 1 were 9 percent lower than on
the same date in 1948. It is anticipated, however,
that some inventory building will take place in the
last quarter of the year so that stocks will be near the
8 million level by year-end.
Total new rubber consumption, according to the
Rubber Manufacturers Association, by all domestic
rubber manufacturers in the United States declined
10 percent in the first 9 months of 1949 to a total
of 733,500 long tons. Natural rubber use was off
12 percent while synthetic consumption was down 7
percent. The proportion of natural rubber consump
tion to total new rubber declined from 58.4 percent
in 1948 to 57 percent in 1949.
The Rubber Allocation Order R-l was revised
slightly in July and August to stimulate more natural
rubber consumption and thus make more dollars
available to foreign countries. The revision permits
greater freedom in choice of materials that can be
used in tires and tubes still subject to specification con
trol. It also reduces somewhat the classes of tires
under control without endangering the consumption
of the minimum tonnages of GR-S and Butyl required
by law. It is estimated that the required use of GR-S
and Butyl will be decreased by 7,000 tons a year
each, if minimums specified by law are met by manu
facturers.
Natural rubber prices drifted irregularly downward
during the year. Spot market prices of rubber aver
aged slightly over 19 cents per pound in January as
compared with 17 cents per pound at mid-November. A late August-September rise in price was ab
ruptly halted by devaluation of the pound sterling
with prices reacting about l l/ 2 cents. Prices during
November, however, advanced somewhat.
Machine
Tools
The position of the machine tool industry
in the District has steadily deteriorated
during the past 12 months according to
Page 9
data made available by the National Machine Tool
Builders Association. Both foreign and domestic new
orders have declined. Shipments have been main
tained fairly well through the year, but at the expense
of order backlog.
The total new order index stood at 57 in October
(1945-47 equals 100) and although it had risen
from 48 in July it was still 16 percent under the
year-ago level. The foreign order index was about
14 in October as compared with 22 at the beginning
of the year. Machine tool builders expect that de
valuation and the general dollar shortage will con
tinue to affect adversely their export markets. To
date, the ECA program has not given any appreci
able lift to foreign sales.
Machine tool builders reported a late summer surge
in inquiries but the extended steel strike apparently
dampened, at least temporarily, the conversion of
many of these inquiries into firm orders. Manufac
turers continue to view the future with optimism and
hope that increased costs arising from the pension
programs will stimulate interest in cost-reducing ma
chine tools. Industry representatives point out that
more than half of present day machines were put in
place before the war and much of the wartime-built
equipment was built from designs frozen ten years ago.
Although there are no big retooling programs in
sight, reports from Detroit indicate that several new
automobile engine programs will require substantial
tool investment.
The October machine tool shipment index was
62, down 23 percent from the year before. Order
backlog represented only 3.8 months’ shipments
whereas a year ago it amounted to slightly more than
4 months’ business. Standard machine tools are again
being carried in stock and prompt delivery can be
had for these items.
Consumer
The production of major household apDurabltt
pliances during the first three quarters
Goods
of 1949, as measured by an index con
structed by the Research Department of
this bank, lagged substantially behind last year’s level
during the first two quarters of the year, but showed
a marked pickup during the third quarter. This
third-quarter rise was largely attributable to increases
in the production of washing machines and gas
ranges, and to a lesser extent, to increases in the out
put of ironers and vacuum cleaners. This index does
not include radios or television sets.
Despite the third-quarter increase in production,
manufacturers and wholesalers reported that the com
bined effect of the improved retail sales situation and
the October steel strike had pulled inventories of
almost all types of household appliances to abnormally
low levels for the Christmas selling season.
The production of television sets continued its
steady upward march during most of the year,
although the rate of increase showed some signs of
Page 10
Monthly Business Review
tapering off toward the end of the year. Neverthe
less, the 305,000 television sets shipped in October
represent a new record for monthly shipments.
Shipments during the third quarter were 134 per
cent above the corresponding quarter of 1948. Radio
manufacturers have found, however, that the tele
vision boom has been offset somewhat by a cor
responding decline in sales of radios. The production
of radios during the first three quarters of 1949 was
only slightly more than half that of the comparable
period of a year ago, and no significant recovery in
output appears to be under way.
Production of washing machines was one of the
major factors responsible for the excellent thirdquarter showing of total appliance production.
Despite last year’s high sales, the year-to-year deficit
in the number of washing machines sold by factories
was narrowed from 44 percent in the first quarter
to 23 percent in the third quarter. In October
334,000 units were sold and this total was only 15
percent short of the number of units sold in October
of 1948.
Shipments of household cooking ranges during the
first nine months of 1949 were only about two-thirds
of the 1948 volume during the corresponding period.
Possibly as a result of the increasingly rapid com
pletion rate of new homes, a factor to which sales of
cooking ranges seem to be quite closely related, the
volume of third-quarter shipments was the most
favorable of the year. Shipments of gas models rose
rather steadily throughout the year and the percent
age margin by which 1949 shipments trailed 1948
shipments shrank from 44 percent in the first quarter
to 22 percent in the third quarter. Sales of electric
ranges dropped sharply during the second quarter
but expanded somewhat during the third quarter.
Factory sales of vacuum cleaners declined slowly
through most of 1949. The rate of decline, however,
was not so rapid as that of 1948 and, consequently,
the monthly year-to-year comparisons successively
became more favorable. A total of 273,000 vacuum
cleaners were sold during October. This was only
3 percent short of factory sales during October
of 1948.
Sales of electric ironing machines followed a more
or less steady course through the first nine months
of 1949. Sales during the third quarter of the year
showed a substantial improvement when compared
with the corresponding period of 1948, but this was
largely due to slow sales a year ago. For the first
nine months of the year sales averaged 43 percent
below the comparable period of 1948.
Electric refrigerator manufacturers were the only
long-established appliance producers to report a
greater unit output in the first three quarters of
1949 than in the corresponding period last year. The
peak month of the year was January, when 396,000
units were sold. From this point factory sales de
clined to a June low of 311,000 units. Sales improved
December 1, 1949
QUARTERLY FACTORY SALES—UNITS
Percentage changes from corresponding period of 1948
1st
______Quarter
Television sets.............
Electric Refrigerators. .
Vacuum Cleaners1.......
Electric Ranges...........
Gas Ranges1.................
Washing Machines.. . .
(electric and gasoline)
Electric Ironers...........
Radios, FM and AM *..
2nd
Quarter
3rd
Quarter
1st Three
Quarters
+ 258%
+20
— 20
— 15
— 44
— 44
+ 205%
— 8
— 19
—-4 5
— 38
— 44
+ 134%
— 5
— 15
— 34
— 22
— 23
+ 187%
+ 1
— 18
— 31
— 35
—-37
— 45
— 27
— 56
— 59
— 22
— 56
— 43
— 45
— 19%
— 25%
TOTAL* ................ — 23%
— 32%
1 Shipments.
* Production.
♦Does not include sales of radios or television sets.
Sources: American Washer and Ironer Manufacturers’ Association,
Vacuum Cleaner Manufacturers’ Association, National Electric Manu
facturers’ Association, Bureau of the Census, and Radio Manufac
turers’ Association.
FACTORY SALES—UNITS
First nine months
-
—
____________________
Television sets.............
Electric Refrigerators..
Vacuum Cleaners1.......
Electric Ranges...........
Gas Ranges1*...............
Washing Machines.. . .
(electric and gasoline)
Electric Ironers...........
Radios, FM and AM *..
1 Shipments.
-
—
1949 __________ 1948_________ Change
1,403,000
3,084,000
2,092,000
693,000
1,134,000
2,183,000
488,000
3,041,000
2,550,000
1,006,000
1,812,000
3,453,000
+187%
+ 1
— 18
— 31
— 35
—■37
213,000
583,000
370,000
1,053,000
— 43
— 45
* Production.
* Eight months total shipments.
Sources: American Washer and Ironer Manufacturers’ Association,
Vacuum Cleaner Manufacturers’ Association, National Electric Manu
facturers’ Association, Bureau of the Census, and Radio Manufacturers'
Association.
somewhat during the third quarter but, nevertheless,
were 5 percent below last year’s level. The relatively
favorable year-to-year comparisons in sales of refrig
erators are largely explained by the fact that, based
on prewar factory sales data, sales of refrigerators
have expanded less in the postwar period than those
of any other major appliance..
Construction Construction activity in the Fourth
Activity
District was at a very high level in
1949 according to reports compiled
by the F. W. Dodge Corporation. Through October,
dollar value of contracts awarded for residential
building, total building, and total construction was
the greatest recorded in the last twenty years. If
activity continues at the same rate as established
during the first ten months, the value of total con
struction during 1949 will amount to about $1,200
million as compared with $1,081 million in 1948. On
the other hand, floor area of total construction was
9 percent under the corresponding period of 1948
and the floor area to be provided in new manufac
turing building was the smallest since the depression
of the ’thirties.
Value of total residential contracts in an area
December 1, 1949
Monthly Business Review
roughly equal to the Fourth District will total about
$400 million in 1949, on the basis of the average
rate for the first ten months. Through October, this
represented a gain of 5 percent over a year ago, but
was less than the 10 percent increase for the 37
eastern states covered by the Dodge figures. Although
the value of District residential contracts increased
during 1949, the amount of floor space involved
declined 5 percent from the same ten months of 1948.
The number of new dwelling units provided by
residential projects for ten months of 1949 increased
2 percent from 1948 to a total of 31,800 units. An
upsurge in the months of August, September and
October (when home-building activity is usually de
clining) was largely responsible for this improved
standing over last year. In the rest of the country,
the increase in the number of dwelling units reported
by the Dodge Corporation was 15 percent above a
year ago.
The number of new dwelling units provided in
apartments during the first ten months of 1949 was
far above last year in the Cleveland and Pittsburgh
territories, but lagged behind in the Cincinnati area.
The number of apartments provided in the three areas
combined was double a year ago but was exceeded in
five of the last twelve years.
In the District construction of one-family dwellings
for owner occupancy was 11 percent ahead of last
year. On the other hand speculative building, as
measured by the value of contracts awarded to con
struct one-family houses for sale or rent, declined 16
percent as compared with no change from a year
ago for the rest of the country. The value of con
tracts to build two-family houses was 38 percent
below a year ago.
Building costs in the District continued to rise
during 1949. The estimated average cost per square
foot for new residential building increased from
$7.77 in 1948 to $8.51 in 1949, or 10 percent. For
the rest of the country, the gain during 1949 was
only 5 percent, and the average cost per square foot
in 1949 was only $7.96.
A trend toward smaller homes was reflected in
the average size of dwelling units placed under con
tract. Average floor area decreased from 1,264
square feet in the first ten months of 1948 to 1,171
square feet in 1949, or 7 percent. New homes in
the District were about 6 percent larger than in the
rest of the country, since the average floor area in
1949 dwelling units was only 1,103 square feet.
Manufacturing building activity in an area rough
ly corresponding to the Fourth District fell far
behind 1948. Floor space to be provided by new
structures ranged from 41 percent less than a year
ago in the Pittsburgh territory to 64 percent less in
the Cincinnati region. Value of manufacturing con
struction in the District dropped 32 percent from
1948 figures. Construction of most other types of
nonresidentiai
building was above a year ago.
Page 11
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
CONTRACTS AWARDED
1949 As Against Previous Years
(Fourth District)
M IL L IO N S
OF D O L L A R S
70
. . . after an unspectacular beginning, dollar volume of
residential contracts awarded in this District has recently
rushed upward to record heights.
Source of data: F. W. Dodge Corporation.
Employment in United States man
ufacturing establishments showed more
instability over the first three quarters of 1949 than
did total nonagricultural employment. Nonagricultural employment (seasonally adjusted) declined
from 44 million in January to a low in July of 42.7
million, or a decrease of 2.6 percent. During August
and September the number employed in nonagri
cultural endeavors increased somewhat but was still
nearly 2 percent below the January total and more
than 5 percent under a year ago. Although employ
ment in manufacturing establishments exhibited a
similar pattern, the decrease by September was 4.5
percent from the January high of nearly 15 million
and nearly 8 percent below September 1948. In Sep
tember the outlook for increased employment
seemed considerably brighter, but this was short
lived when the coal and steel strikes directly affected
nearly a million employees and indirectly affected
many more.
In the four District states of Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Kentucky, and West Virginia, the number of work
ers employed in manufacturing industries showed a
10 percent decline in the first three quarters of 1949
and a 13 percent decline from a year ago. This
decrease was much larger than that experienced in
manufacturing employment for the entire country
due to the heavy concentration of durable goods in
dustries in this area. The machinery industry
showed the greatest decline— 25 percent—in the
number of workers employed in August 1949 as com
pared with August 1948. Other major industries
showing declines of more than 10 percent included
lumber, metal, rubber, and stone, clay, and glass
Employment
Page 12
Monthly Business Review
products. Employment in food and textile industries
remained fairly constant.
The average hours worked by all production
workers fluctuated between 39.4 and 38.3 per week
in the first seven months of 1949 and average hourly
earnings remained fairly stable at $1.40. The cost of
living index fell less than 2% in the same period.
This represented a slight gain in real wages for the
production worker per hour but did not necessarily
represent an increase in his standard of living be
cause of the general decline in the average number
of hours worked.
BUSINESS STATISTICS
Bank Debits*— October 1949
in 31 Fourth District Cities
(In thousands of dollars)
(Compiled November 10, and released for publication November 11)
Xo. of
% Change 3 Months % Chang
from
Reporting
from
Ended
Oct.
Banks
Year Ago Oct. 1949 Year Ago
1949
ALL 31 CENTERS......... $6,621,530 - 8.5% $19,824,828 - 7.4%,
10 LARGEST CENTERS
...........Ohio $ 241,474 - 5.5% * 682,058 — 2.6%
302,641 —13.8
101,376 —14.2
2,549,823 — 4.8
...........Ohio 862,413 — 7.1
1,723,357 — 9.1
5,101,897 — 8.9
1,651,302 + 2.1
531,647 + 0.7
224,406 — 3.8
654,038 — 3.3
982,583 —11.1
355,467 — 8.5
144,532 — 4.5
442,118 — 3.6
Youngstown...
248,827 —10.5
83,641 —12.9
Erie.................. .......Penna.
5,418,488 — 9.5
1,749,776 —11.2
Pittsburgh.......
TOTAL............................ 16,018,089 - 8.4% 118,033,775 - 7.3%
21 OTHER CENTERS:
9 Covington-Newport__Ky. S 37,328 - 7.6% $ 108,885 - 7.1%
56,542 — 9.7
158,520 —14.5
.............Ky.
6
51,184 —15.2
17,984 —14.4
3
37,182 + 2.2
112,585 — 2.7
3
128,977 — 0.7
2
44,219 — 1.7
52,102 —12.5
17,130 —14.0
5
116,371 —10.0
41,276 — 5.9
4
31,788 — 5.9
93,524 — 6.7
2 Middletown__
57,471 —14.6
3 Portsmouth...
20,837 —14.0
131,985 — 3.1
43,645 — 5.9
3 Springfield....
61,855 —17.2
19,809 —26.0
4 Steubenville...
105,685 — 5.7
35,197 — 8.1
2
25,652 —10.6
76,419 — 7.0
3
86,495 —15.0
28,761 — 8.5
3
6,376 —18.4
19,289 —10.8
1
58,106 —13.0
18,641 —17.0
2 Greensburg__
27,589 —22.1
8,516 —28.1
4 Kittanning.......
36,182 — 8.5
12,140 —21.9
3
17,384 —16.4
53,095 —12.1
4
72,264 —16.4
24,560 —16.8
5
182,470 + 0.8
6 Wheeling......... .......W. Va. 58,474 — 5.5
$ 603,441 - 9.8% S 1,791,053
78 TOTAL.......
* Debits to all deposit accounts except interbank balances.
Debits to deposit accounts (other than interbank) in 31 Fourth District cities
totaled S6,621,500,000 during October, or slightly less than the September figure
and 8.5 percent below the aggregate of October 1948.
On the other hand, the volume of deposits owned by individuals and corporations
at the end of October (not shown in accompanying tabulation) was about 2 percent
larger than a year earlier. This contrast reveals the extent to which the rate of
turnover has slowed down during the past twelve months. It is equally noticeable
in both the larger and smaller city groups.
191
5
5
16
10
7
4
6
4
6
51
113
oo
00
I1
The trend of business failures in the
Fourth District continued upward. There
were 553 mortalities in the first 10 months
of 1949 as compared with 251 for the same period
of 1948, according to Dun and Bradstreet reports.
This increase of 120 percent may be compared with
an increase of only 79 percent experienced in the
entire United States. The proportion of United
States failures occurring in the District has risen
steadily since April of 1947. In that year it was 5
percent, in 1948 it was 6 percent, and in the first
9 months of 1949 it had advanced to over 7 percent.
The growth in the number of mortalities has been
evident in all branches of business. Failures in man
ufacturing, retailing, wholesaling, construction and
commercial service have been increasing by signifi
cantly greater rates in the District than in the rest
of the country. Commercial service and construction
failures now exceed their prewar mortality rates.
Manufacturing failures have returned to the 19371941 levels, but retail and wholesale failures, though
rising, are still well below the number of trade
casualties before the war.
During the last half year, the number of District
failures has been ranging from 45 to 70 per month,
about the same as the 1937 and 1939-1941 levels.
Meanwhile, the number of business establishments in
the four Fourth District states is estimated to have
increased about 16 percent between July, 1940 and
July, 1949. Since nearly three-fourths of all failures
generally occur among business less than 6 years
old, the recent large crop of casualties is probably
due to the rapid growth of the business population.
Furthermore, the increased number of concerns in
business has diluted the relative significance of the
larger number of failures. The failure rate ranged
from 38 to 56 per 10,000 active concerns from 1934
to 1940, but was only 30 in 1949.
In past years, the failure rate for the District
usually has been‘substantially below the rest of the
country in prosperous times, but has equaled or ex
ceeded the national rate during depressions. The
District rate in the first 10 months of this year was
slightly below the national rate of 33 failures per
10,000 active concerns.
Business
Failures
December 1, 1949
TEN LARGEST CENTERS
In Pittsburgh, Erie and Canton, the year-to-year declines in debits ranged from
10-15 percent. In the last two named cities, the October total was the smallest for
the month since 1946. Columbus was the only large city to report a gain in debits
over a year ago.
TWENTY-ONE SMALLER CENTERS
Hamilton was the only smaller city in which October debit volume exceeded
the 1948 figure.
In Meadville, Steubenville and Kittanning debits last month were from 22 percent
to 28 percent below the year-ago total.
Indexes of Department Store Sales and Stocks
Daily Average for 1935-1939=100
Adjusted for
Without
Seasonal Adjustment
Seasonal Variation
Oct. Sept. Oct. Oct. Sept. Oct.
1949 1949 1948 1949 1949 1948
SALES:
.............
Canton (5)............... ............
Cincinnati (8).......... ............
Cleveland (10)........ ............
Columbus (5).......... ............
Erie (3).................... ............
Pittsburgh (8)......... .............
Springfield (3)......... ............
Toledo (6)............... ..........
Wheeling (6)............ .......*
Youngstown (3)...... ............
District (96)............ ............
STOCKS:
...
District...................
R—Revised.
268
309
289
249
315
315
237
288
249
197
227
259
282
343
296
260
331
311
264
292
302
250
320
279
326
396R
331
291
366
353
308
324
316
265R
358
319R
281
325
304
261
334
327
251
294
266
207
241
274
285
350
299
260
331
308
262
286
299
255
317
282
342
416
347
306
388
368
326
331
338
278
380
338
252
242
269R
287
264
305
@FedFRASER