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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve D istrict Federal Reserve Bank o f Cleveland Vol. 10 Cleveland, Ohio, December 1, 1928 General business activity in the Fourth District con tinued high in November, though not quite up to the October level. Reports from various parts o f the District indicate that this high activity is well distributed. In the Cleveland area, employment at the beginning o f the month was slightly lower than a month earlier but was 10 per cent greater than a year ago. The automobile accessory, metal products, and paint industries in this area are still doing a very heavy volume o f business. Pittsburgh and Youngstown report a seasonal slackening in iron and steel operations. General activity has in creased somewhat in the Wheeling and Steubenville dis tricts, and demand for commercial loans is heavier. Con ditions are reported "good ” around Cincinnati and in Central Ohio. Building is heavy in Springfield. Toledo manufacturers are optimistic with regard to business in that locality. In the Akron territory, exceptionally large tire production has meant high employment and increased earnings fo r the past two months. Reports from the steelmaking section around Elyria and Lorain state that factories are very busy and advance orders are good. No. 12 another 70 per cent, and another 67 per cent. In the United States, third quarter earnings o f 170 industrials set up a new high record for any quarter. FOURTH DISTRICT BUSINESS INDEX There is presented below in both tabular and chart form an index of general business in the Fourth Federal Reserve District. This is a composite index and includes nine individual series which reflect fluctuations in the major activities of the District. The series are as fo l lows : pig iron production, steel ingot production, bitu minous coal production, building operations, bank debits, department store sales, commercial failures, an index showing the turnover o f bank deposits and an index recording changes in the supply o f labor. The series have all been corrected fo r seasonal fluctuation and allowance has been made fo r average annual growth. This is the first time that this index has been published in its present form and it appears to reflect accurately the trend of business in this District. Employment in Ohio, according to the Ohio State Uni versity Bureau of Business Research, was one per cent greater in October than in September and was 9 per cent greater than a year ago. Prom all sections comes the complaint of poor retail business, the merchants expressing considerable disap pointment with October and November results. This is very largely a matter of unseasonably warm weather, however, and the outlook for the holiday trade is reported to be promising. This is confirmed by heavy orders re ceived by manufacturers supplying holiday goods. The supply o f credit in the District ample, although occasional reports o f here and there are received. Interest changed much from a month ago and are for commercial purposes. continues to be a tightening-up rates have not not unduly high Third quarter earnings in both this District and the United States made a remarkably good showing as com pared with last year. In the Fourth District, 19 out of 31 leading industrial corporations report increases, 6 report no change, and 6 show decreases. Some o f the gains for were very great, one concern reporting 95 per cent, Digitized FRASER INDEX OF FOURTH DISTRICT BUSINESS April May . June . July . December 1919 94.8 93.0 91.1 100.3 97.6 107.4 121.2 119.6 117.8 114.3 108.0 117.9 1920 128.8 123.9 127.9 116.1 114.1 120.0 119.1 116.3 115.7 109.0 115.4 103.2 1921 94.6 84.9 84.1 83.1 82.5 81.5 73.4 74.3 77.4 78.8 82.9 78.6 1922 78.4 83.2 83.1 83.0 90.9 90.3 90.7 98.7 94.8 96.4 98.5 100.9 1923 99.3 103.8 107.6 106.5 116.5 109.2 108.1 109.9 105.4 102.6 97.8 96.6 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 2 January ................. ................... F ebruary ..................... ................... M arch ......................... ................... A pril ........................... ................... May .............................. ................... June .............................. July .............................. ................... A ugust ...... ......... ......... ................... September ................. O ctober ...................... ................... N ovem ber ..................................... Decem ber ................... ................... ♦Prelim inary 1924 97.0 104.4 97.7 97.2 90.9 85.2 89.0 90.5 98.1 99.8 1925 101.0 101.7 105.0 105.1 96.3 96.2 104.1 103.3 101.9 109.4 101.9 102.0 1926 103.3 98.5 102.6 99.6 100.0 102.7 105.5 105.1 104.7 104.5 102.4 104.0 1927 105.7 107.4 100.8 106.2 101.5 101.3 99.3 101.8 99.0 94.5 92.0 95.8 1928 93.4 94.5 95.5 97.0 98.9 102.5 99.8 100.8 106.3 *103.1 CORPORATION EARNINGS (Quarterly net earnings of 170 identical industrials in the United States) All scales in millions of dollars FIN AN CIAL The month ending November 21 was marked by a slight easing in money rates, rapidly mounting stock prices and loans to brokers, and a decline in reserve bank credit. Gold imports were received in fairly large volume, mostly from England and Argentina, but toward the end of November these were partly offset by exports to Canada and earmarkings. Money Rates. Despite heavy demands through the crop moving season, money rates failed to advance; on the contrary, certain classes of rates eased off. Large acceptance purchases by the Reserve System were an important factor in preventing an advance in “ business” rates during the crop-financing period. Prime commercial paper has held steady at per cent, with the bulk of names at the latter quotation, and bankers’ acceptances have remained at 4 Y2 per cent asked. Time money on the stock exchange declined from 6% -7 per cent at the end of October to 6%-7 during most of November. Call money has ranged from 6 to 6 ^ per cent since Novem ber 7, as compared with a prevailing range in October of 6 ^ - 7 V2 per cent. In the Fourth District little change is apparent from a month ago. Prime commercial paper is 5 ^ -6 per cent in Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati; and collateral loans are 5 ^ -6 in Cleveland, 5-6 in Pitts burgh, and 5 ^ -7 in Cincinnati. Member Bank Credit. For the System as a whole, “ all other” loans have ceased their seasonal expansion, while collateral loans are higher than a month ago, due to in creased stock exchange activity. As in the previous four months, banks have continued to sell their investments; but the total of member bank credit in mid-November was somewhat higher than on October 10. In the Fourth District, collateral loans have been declining since July, commercial loans are up slightly from last month, invest ments are down, and the total is virtually unchanged. Reserve Bank Credit. Unusually large purchases of acceptances by the reserve banks, coupled with a moderate return flow of gold, have enabled member banks to reduce their rediscounts with the System by over $100,000,000 since the middle of last month. Government security hold ings have fluctuated but little, and total reserve bank credit is somewhat lower, having risen to a new peak for 1928 on November 7 only to drop sharply in the two following weeks. The Cleveland Federal Reserve bank has been losing gold heavily through the Gold Settlement Fund, as is usual toward the end of the year, and conse quently reserve balances o f member banks have been replenished by rediscounting. Acceptance purchases have also been heavy while Government security holdings are about the same as a month ago. The total credit ex tended by this bank is therefore considerably higher than a month earlier. 4 LEATHER ’25 15 MOTOR ACCE5. A A V ’25 *26 ’27 f1 ’28 *29 ’ 26 '27 ’28 >29 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Debits, Savings, Failures. Debits to individual account at 13 large cities in this District amounted to $3,063,085,000 in October, $2,650,764,000 in September, and $2,647,308,000 a year ago. Savings deposits of 66 banks in Ohio and Western Pennsylvania totaled $1,050,060,865 on November 1, a gain of 0.8 per cent for the month and 7.2 per cent for the year. Commercial failures in the Fourth District numbered 162 in October, according to R. G. Dun and Company, as against 159 in September, and 175 a year ago. Liabili ties were $2,359,380 in October, $3,715,998 in September, and $7,010,000 a year ago. In the United States there were 2023 failures in October, 1635 in September, and 1787 in October, 1927. The following table gives the changes in the main items in the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and reporting member banks: Federal Reserve Bank o f Cleveland Federal Reserve System <In Millions) (In Millions) Nov. 21, Nov. 23, Oct. 24, Nov. 21, Nov. 23, Oct. 24, 1928 192? 1928 1928 1927 1928 239 289 260 2.667 2,860 2,646 Gold Reserves .............. 80 38 77 800 418 912 Discounts ........................ Acceptances .................. 52 16 38 4S4 327 401 U. S. Securities ............. 34 76 34 226 621 231 Total bills and securities 166 130 149 1,515 1,367 1.548 Federal Reserve notes in circulation ................... 205 215 2i>5 1,717 1,729 1,710 Total deposits ------------ 186 188 190 2,378 2,436 2,374 REPORTING MEMBER BANKS Fourth District United States (.In Millions) (In Millions) 1928 Loans secured by stocks and bonds .................. 655 All o t h e r .......................... 823 Total loans .................. 1,478 Investments .— ............ 719 Demand deposits ........... 1.041 Time deposits ............... 956 1927 600 772 1,372 720 1,053 894 192$ 1928 1927 U28 65u 818 1,468 736 1.059 956 6,835 9,181 6,352 8,77$ 6.750 9.196 6,362 13.409 6,927 6,293 13,763 6,424 6.»64 13.291 6.921 Corporation Earnings Net earnings of 170 industrial corpora tions in the United States set a new high record in the third quarter of 1928. The table below gives detailed figures for several impor tant lines, while the chart on page 2 presents this bank’s quarterly index of identical industrials. The great majority of industries shared in third quarter prosperity. This was also true of individual firms, despite the frequent statement that a few large concerns are responsible for the favorable earnings record of 1928. Of the industries represented in the identical index, a good showing in the third quarter was made by nearly all groups, particularly oil and mining among the larger^ lines, and amusements, building supply, and equip ment in the miscellaneous classification. -I JS 13 15 15 19 13 72 170 NET EARNINGS BY QUARTERS (In thousands c f dollars) 1928 192s 11*27 1926 1925 3rd 2nd 3rd 3rd 3rd £ he™ caIs .................. $ 15,2*>‘» $ 13,071 $ 1?,505 $ 11.756 $ 8.85# E !0? .......................... 31.22", 32.571 2'»,2i«7 2ft,976 22.787 Mining ........................ 13.570 li - S.S95 K.14I* Motor .......................... 112,':2 m .'ea ? P2.13S $2,842 73,752 Motor Accessory ....... f*,i*56 ?•.!'<>» 7,271 3.192 6.152 Oil 35.690 li*’.ss*; l«».2i»» 45.473 27.101 Steel ............. 42.43S 40.012 45.177 33,029 Miscellaneous 71,798 57.1 ^ 51*. 713 5>.965 48.016 Total ................. $336,755 $314,9*0 $250,536 $2S5,736 $228,455 MANUFACTURING, MINING Finished steel in mid-November entered the third phase of its present movement. Contracting for the fourth quarter, which developed late in September and continued well Iron and Steel 8 into October, resulted in production being expanded so rapidly that in October an all-time steel ingot output record was made. As the sequel, producers in midNovember inaugurated a series of price advances— $2 per ton in sheets, tin plate and cold rolled strip and $1 in semifinished steel—which promised to become general. Indications are that steel output in November is sliding off moderately from the October peak, mostly for seasonal reasons, although maintaining a large gain ovei? a year ago. Bookings in November suffered from mid-quarter inertia, most users being well covered for the last quarter and not ready to consider first quarter needs. Except in hot strip, the chief effect was to ease the delivery situation; in strip incoming orders matched ship ments. Automotive steel specifications in the month ended November 15 were somewhat lighter, but then began to turn up again as Detroit manufacturers commenced pro duction of new models. Tin plate mills have been pro ducing for stock. Pipe mills in the Mahoning valley, already well booked for the quarter, have taken some large southwestern orders. Seasonal buying of track material has benefited Pittsburgh district mills. Freight car orders also have improved. On many important prod ucts four to five weeks’ delivery is the best the mills can offer and delivery has transcended price frequently. Not in many months has pig iron been so active. With their own finishing demands at capacity, steel makers have withdrawn from the merchant iron market. The trend in the past few years has been toward the abandon ment of some strictly merchant capacity. With consump tion undiminished, furnace and consumers’ stocks low, and steelworks out of the market, pig iron demand and prices have been brisk. Most grades at Pittsburgh, Youngstown, Cleveland and the lake cities are $1 to $1.50 higher than sixty days ago. Sales, some into the second quarter of 1929, have been extensive. Scrap iron and steel, mean while, has reacted from its recent swift advance. The October steel ingot record is the more noteworthy because made in the Fall; normally March and April, with their large proportion of rail tonnage and large-section structural for Spring building work, set the records. October’s daily average was 172,144 tons, compared with 165,903 tons in September and 127,550 tons in October, 1927. The ten-month total for 1928, including the 4,647,891 tons made in October, stands at 41,578,411 tons or about 12 per cent over the 37,095,244 tons of the similar period of 1927. The year now seems certain to run up a new ingot peak. Pig iron, while regaining some of the ground lost last Spring, will fall short o f a record. The net gain in active blast furnaces in October was two. The month’s daily average output was 108,824 tons, against 102,120 tons in September and 90,710 tons last October. The month’s total was 3,373,539 tons. The ten-month total for pig iron is 31,157,301 tons, contrasted with 30,929,041 tons a year ago. When the Iron Trade Review composite of fourteen leading iron and steel products in mid-November went to $35.93, it reached the highest point since September, 1927, Including the week of November 15, this index has risen for thirteen consecutive weeks. 4 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Coal The seasonal increase in domestic de mand for soft coal in this District was not quite as great as usual in October, but cold weather in mid-November has stimulated buy ing from this source. Industrial consumption continues heavy, as stock piles have finally declined to the point where replenishment has become necessary. The price situation remains unsatisfactory, but October showed an improvement over September in this respect, the Coal A ge average price of bituminous (spot, mine) being $1.87 per ton in October as against $1.81 in September. Overproductive capacity still hampers the industry. Production of soft coal in the country continued to ex pand seasonally during October and early November. In the Fourth District, Pennsylvania and Ohio production has been running well ahead o f last year as mines in the union fields, closed in 1927 on account o f the strike, have reopened. The output in Kentucky and W est Virginia is also larger than a year ago. Stocks of soft coal held by commercial consumers were 41.100.000 tons on October 1, according to the latest report o f the Bureau of Mines. This figure compares with 41,700.000 on July 1, 55,500,000 on January 1, and 61,900,000 on October 1, 1927. When the strike was called in April of last year, stocks had risen to 75,000,000 tons, nearly twice as high as at present. Rubber and Tires On October 31 tire prices were cut by the leading manufacturers, the reduc tion ranging from 2 ^ to 5 per cent on first grade tires and from 17 V2 to 20 per cent on sec ond grade tires. Following these cuts the spring-dating season got under way, and although by mid-November it was still too soon for the development o f advance orders in heavy volume, reports indicate that up to that time such orders were coming in somewhat better than a year ago. Production declined seasonally in October and Novem ber, although still unusually heavy for those months. Preliminary production figures fo r October indicate very substantial gains over each o f the preceding four Octobers, ranging from 62 per cent as compared with that month in 1925 to 41 per cent as compared with October o f 1924. On November 1 the Stevenson Restriction Act expired. This Act, passed by the British Government in 1922, pro vided for the restriction of crude rubber exports from British-owned plantations (in Malaya and Ceylon), the allowable export quotas being varied from time to time. It was put into operation with the idea o f improving the extremely depressed price situation which resulted from the 1920-1921 depression. The results of restriction, however, were on the whole unsatisfactory to both British producers and American m anufacturers. Crude rubber prices, after advancing moderately in 1923 and 1924, behaved in an extremely erratic manner in 1925 and 1926, rising from about 35 cents to over a dollar a pound in 1925 and falling just as rapidly the follow ing year. During most o f 1927, prices declined in spite o f successive reductions in export quotas under the Stevenson Act, and in 1928 a sharp drop occurred from 40 cents a pound to the present level o f about 18 cents a pound. These price fluctuations seri ously hampered the inventory policies of American tire manufacturers, and meanwhile British plantation owners were feeling the effect o f a heavy increase in Dutchowned production, which was not restricted. The latter development and the failure of the Stevenson A ct to prevent price declines in 1927 were important factors in the decision o f the British to abandon the Act. Automobiles Automobile production in the United States in October continued high fo r this season, amounting to 398,818 cars and trucks as compared with 219,682 last year, 334,000 in 1926, and 450,000 in 1925. The October figure was 17,000 lower than that of September and 63,000 less than the August high record fo r all time. The rate o f production has declined in November as a number of large manufacturers have made preparations fo r new models. Owing to the activity o f Ford and some others, however, operations are still heavy after allowing fo r the seasonal falling-off. Truck manufacturers in this District report a good third quarter and state that present conditions are satisfactory. Clothing Clothing manufacturers in this D istrict are still complaining o f unseasonably warm weather. During the first part o f November the temperature continued to register well above normal, as was the case in October. This o f course further retarded winter buying at retail, and ad vance orders to manufacturers were adversely affected when retailers found themselves heavily stocked up. Con sequently, fourth quarter business up to November 15 was fair to poor. In the week ending November 24, how ever, the weather was much colder, and delayed buying by the public made its appearance. Retail sales of clothing during October were irregular. Gains over last year were shown by women's dresses, 1 per cent; misses* dresses, 10.1; girls' wear, 4.4; sports wear, 8.3; and aprons and house dresses, 6.4 per cent. Decreases occurred in men's clothing, 16.7 per cent; m en’s furnishings, 3.0; hats and caps, 6.1; boys' wear, 6.1; fu rs, 9.8; misses’ coats and suits, 6.3; and women’s coats, 3.1 per cent. A better showing was made by 13 reporting wholesale houses, whose October sales were 8.3 per cent larger than a year ago. Shoes decline. A fter a good October, the shoe m anu facturing trade is now in the dull sea son, with production showing a norm al Advance orders are rather slow. Fourth District production in October was higher fo r that month than in several years and showed a large gain over September which was not seasonal. Retail shoe sales in October were fairly good. In 72 department and apparel stores in the Fourth District, there was a gain over last year o f 3.2 per cent in women’s and children's shoes, but a decrease of 7 per cent in men's and boys' shoes. Wholesale shoe sales in October were about equal to those o f a year earlier. Other Manufacturing Business in general manufacturing lines was at a high point in November. Seasonal let-downs from October w ere reported by some lines, while others were expanding their operations in anticipation o f the holiday season. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 6 BUILDING Building contracts awarded for 37 Eastern states made a new high record for October, according to the F. W. Dodge Corporation. Fourth District total contracts awarded for October amounted to $57,118,308, the highest October on record with the exception of 1925. Contracts awarded during October o f 1927 amounted to $49,315,195. Although October experienced a falling-off as compared with the September figure of $67,747,810, a high record for all time, this decline was not nearly as great as has been customary in previous years. Residential contracts awarded in October in the Fourth District were $17,464,390, practically the same as a year ago, but somewhat more than the low September figure of $16,166,854. The increase in non-residential contracts was caused partly by the awarding of large railroad con tracts in Ohio. The Federal Reserve Board’s index of contracts awarded, after being adjusted for seasonal variations, fell from 156 in September to 145.4 in October, but is still well above any October on record. The September figure was the highest on record so that it would seem that building during the last part of the year is holding up better than heretofore. The valuation of October building permits in 27 cities in this District was $18,173,104, a loss of 7.1 per cent as compared with last year, but a gain of 5.4 per cent when compared with September when building permits amounted to $17,247,960. Building permits for the first ten months o f this year are 1.8 per cent ahead of last year in the District. Building Operations Akron................ Ashtabula......... Barberton......... Canton.............. Cincinnati........ Cleveland......... Cleve. stihurbs: Cieve. Hghts.. Kast C leve.... (Valuation of Permits) % change October, from Jan.-Oct. 1928 1927 1928 2,432,123 +80.5 17,337,002 12,796 — 65.5 384,222 85,635 + 7.7 800,873 + 14.3 324.740 3,315,596 — 3.4 3,420,360 30,889,355 3,717,325 — 1.5 44,715,325 Jan.-Oct. 1927 17,752,122 494,125 975,921 3,522,321 27,537,719 36,447,650 215.390 31,540 136,460 118,500 Garfield Hghts. 136,361 Lakewood....... 139,755 Parma............. 86,200 Rocky River. . 585,405 Shaker lights. 941,700 Columbus......... 90,250 Covington, Ky. 394,385 Dayton............. 1,372,375 Erie, Pa........... 171,257 Hamilton.......... 155,642 Lexington, Ky.. 76.290 Lima................. Newark............. 113,851 Pittsburgh, Pa.. 1.678,561 174.975 Springfield........ 939,785 Toledo.............. 238,923 Wheeling, W. Va. 382,520 Youngstown___ — 37.1 — 86.0 + 1 0 .7 — 36.8 — 41.6 + 0.3 + 10.8 — 20.1 — 15.1 + 1 5 .4 — 28.7 +232.9 +107.9 + 30.0 +353.4 + 235.6 — 52.4 + 16.1 + 4.5 + 5 4 .4 — 45.1 3,699,860 687,270 1,958,241 1,454,150 4,622,603 2,221,584 1,015,168 6,692,245 14,743,350 1,398,300 9,847,443 4,411,759 1,871,963 1,397,453 485,644 1,317,284 34,918,324 1,333,502 14,977,010 1,742,658 7,050,555 4,618,882 1,268,124 1,595,665 2,452,000 3,301,977 2,937,961 1,160.698 7,992,510 20,102,800 1,456,300 9,545,516 4,387,616 1,751,651 2,118,964 678.911 600,917 32,104,339 1,659,108 14,745,585 2,743,993 7,528,245 18,173,104 7.1 215,288,739 211,481,620 T o ta l... change from 1927 2.3 — —22.2 — — 17.9 5.9 +22.7 12.2 + — — + — + — — — — — + 19.9 45.8 22.7 40.7 40.0 24.4 12.5 16.3 26.7 4 .0 3.2 + 0.6 + 6 .9 — 34.1 — 28.5 + 119.2 + 8.8 19.6 +36.5 1.6 — — — 6 .3 + 1.8 TRADE Retail Trade Sales of 62 department stores in the Fourth District in October were 1 per cent less than a year ago. The largest gains were shown by Akron and Toledo, with 13.9 and 17.2 per cent respectively. Increases also took place in Cleveland, Columbus, Wheeling, and Youngstown, while Cincinnati, Dayton, Pittsburgh, and “ other cities” showed losses. For the first ten months, District sales were 0.5 per cent less than in the corresponding period of 1927. Akron showed the largest gain—10.4 per cent, and Pittsburgh the greatest decline—5.3 per cent. Sales of 16 wearing apparel firms were 6 per cent less in October than a year ago, and for the first ten months registered a decrease of 1.3 per cent. Stocks at the end of October were 7.9 per cent lower than a year earlier. Sales of 47 furniture firms in October were 12.9 per cent larger than a year ago, the only cities to experience decreases being Cincinnati and Columbus. For the first ten months of 1928, the District showed a gain o f 2.4 per cent over last year. Retail hardware sales for October in Ohio exceeded those of a year ago by 1 per cent, according to the Na tional Retail Hardware Association. There was a loss o f 9 per cent for the first ten months o f 1928, however, and October sales were likewise 9 per cent smaller than the 1925-1927 average for that month. Chain grocery sales in the District in October increased 9.5 per cent over last year per individual unit operated, and for the first ten months gained 5.5 per cent. F or chain drugs, October sales decreased 7 per cent and the first ten months 5.8 per cent. Wholesale Trade An unusually good showing was made by five wholesale lines in this District in October. All lines except hardware registered gains over last year, and sales in all lines ex* cept shoes were larger than in September. As compared with October of 1927, grocery sales increased 6 per cent; dry goods, 8.3; drugs, 4.3; and shoes, 0.6; while hardware sales declined 4.6 per cent. For the first ten months of 1928, grocery sales in creased 2.4 per cent over last year, dry goods 1.9 per cent, and drugs 0.7 per cent. Hardware and shoe sales de creased 6.0 and 8.6 per cent respectively. Stocks were generally lower than a year ago. Collec tions were better in three of the five reporting trades. The percentage o f collections during October to accounts receivable on September 30 was 83.3 for groceries, 39,9 for dry goods, 39.2 for hardware, 36.0 for shoes, and 7 2 £ for drugs. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 7 Fourth District Business Statistics (All figures are for Fourth District unless otherwise specified) Bank Debits (24 cities) Millions of dollars Savings Deposits (end of month) Ohio (40 banks) Thousands of dollars Western Pennsylvania (26 banks) Total (66 banks) Commercial Failures—‘Number Actual Number — Liabilities Thousands of dollars Postal Receipts — 9 cities Sales— Life Insurance — Ohio and Pa. — Djspt. Stores — (62 firms) „ — Wearing Apparel (16 firms) “ — Furniture (47 firms) " Wholesalet Gro Grocery (44 firms) .. — “ Dry Goods (13 firms) „ — * Hardware (16 firms) _ — M. Drugs (14 firms) Building Permits, Valuation— 27 cities Building Contracts — Total, 4th District _ , ** — Residential, 4th District Production — Pig Iron, U. S. “ — Steel Ingots, U. S. — Automobiles, U. S. Passenger Cars Actual Number Trucks — Bituminous Coal, 4th Dist. Thousands of tons " — Cement: Ohio, W. Va., Wn. Pa. “ *« barrels — Electric Power: Ohio, Pa., Ky. Millions of k.w. hrs. “ — Petroleum: Ohio, Pa., Ky. Thousands of barrels — Shoes, 4th District “ ** pairs « . " . — Tires, U. S. 44 <4 casings Registration— New Passenger Cars: 8 Ohio countiesi— Actual _ ___________ Number Bituminous Coal Shipments (from Lake Erie ports) Thousands of tons Iron Ore Receipts (at Lake Erie ports) “ “ “ 1 10 months' average. • September • January-September 4 £ ,*u.rc? Confidential • Preliminary (1928 compared with 1927) Other Cities............................. District..................................... WEARING APPAREL (16) Cincinnati.................................. Cleveland.................................. Other Cities.............................. District................. FURNITURE (47)................. Cincinnati................................. Cleveland........................... Other Cities. .*. .................. District............................ .............. CHAIN STORE* Drugs— District (3 )..................... Groceries— District (4 )................ |[ WHOLESALE GROCERIES (44) Cincinnati. .. **** *................................ Cleveland..............*................................ Erie...................... ............................... Pittsburgh........! ..................................... T o l e d o . : . . . . . ; ; ; ; ; ; ............................ Other Qties............................................ District.......... .................................... w h o l ! I a H? d r y G ^(14) bs WmJLESALE DRUGS a f ) . : :: hardw are (16)'.:: WHOLESALE SHOES (6 ).. Oct. 1927 3,213 773.381 276,680 1,050,061 162 2,360 3,352 108,530 27,878 717,119 262,357 979,476 175 7,010 3,211 90,201 28.160 2,127 2,000 1,242 7,606 2,863 2,208 1,975 18,173 S7,118 17,464 3,374 4.648 341,705 57,113 19,156 2,120 1,134* 1,931* 4 5,469* 8,781 4.649 6,002 1,100 7,174 2,644 2,313 1,893 19,567 49.315 17,456 2,784 3,316 183,042 36,640 15,689 1,746 1,017* 2,030* 4 3,617 5,638 3,751 4,929 Jan.-Oct. 1928 33,082 change + 1 4 .7 + 7.8 + 5.5 + 7.2 — 7.4 — 66.3 + 4 .4 + 2 0 .3 — 1.0 — 6.0 + 1 2 .9 + 6.0 + 8.3 — 4.5 ± n + 1 5 .8 + 0.05 +21.2 + 4 0 .2 Jan.-Oct. 1927 32,297 % change + 2.4 749,7801 278,9481 1,028,728' 1,665 44,992 30,396 1,036,226 237,482 16,565 10,656 65,849 22,751 19,491 18,374 215,289 566,044 189.818 31,165 41,579 694,4571 256,6161 951,0731 1,675 45,86t 30,382 984,848 238.790 16.790 10,405 64,310 22,320 20,733 18.248 211,482 598,944 202,991 30.877 36.789 + 8.0 + 8.7 + 8.2 — 0.6 — 1.9 + 0.05 + 5.2 — 0.5 — 1.3 + 2.4 + 2.4 + 1.9 — 6.0 + 0 .7 + 1.8 — 5.5 — 6.5 + 0 .9 + 1 3 .0 3,405,942 463,067 153,581 15,678 9,890* 18,153* 2,730,760 402,625 167,224 14,806 9,678* 17,943* + 2 4 .7 + 1 5 .0 — 8.2 + 5.9 + 2.2 + 1.2 — 6.5 + 1 9 .0 + 2 0 .8 — 2.1 — 4.0 + 8 6 .7 + 5 5 .9 +22.1 + 2 1 .4 + 11.5 — 4.9 + 6.3 + 5 1 .2 + 5 5 .7 + 2 3 .9 4 4 50.175* 103,9 i0 30,152 33,344 +21.8 42,175 86,012 30,802 34,721 Index Numbers of Trade in the Fourth Federal Reserve District Retail and Wholesale Trade DEPARTMENT STORES (62) Akron................................................ Cincinnati......................................... Cleveland.......................................... Columbus.......................................... Dayton.............................................. Pittsburgh......................................... Oct. 1928 3,684 SALES Oct.Oct. Percentage Increase or Decrease SALES first 10 mos. STOCKS Oct.Oct. + 1 3 .9 — 3.9 + 0.4 + 1.0 — 5.1 — 5.9 + 17.2 + 0.5 + 3.7 — 9.3 — 1.0 + 10.4 + 0.1 + 1.4 + 1.5 + 0.2 — 5.3 + 8.0 — 1.0 — 0.5 — 4.5 — 0.5 + 2 0 .0 + 0.3 — 0.1 + 2.8 + 2.5 — 7.7 — 6.8 — 13.4 — 11.1 — 7.3 — 2.8 — — — — 5.6 8.0 4.6 6.0 — + — — 1.1 0.2 3.0 1.3 + 8.4 — 11.3 — 11.6 — 7.9 — 17.9 + 31.3 — 7.6 + 1 2 .6 + 3 7 .7 + 9.7 + 12.9 — + — + + — + 4.0 4.2 3.8 7.3 9.8 5.1 2.4 — 7.0 + 9.5 — 5.8 + 5.5 + 0.8 — 4.2 + 11.0 + 5.6 — 7.4 + 2.9 + 10.3 + 6,0 + 8.3 + 4.3 — 4.6 + 0 .6 + 5.2 + 2.1 + 3.7 — 4.9 + 4.5 + 0.4 + 1.8 + 2.4 + 1.2 + 1.5 + 10.1 — 8.6 .......... .......... * »• — 3.7 — 17.4 — 14.8 Department Stores (52) * .... Oct. 1924 105 Wholesale Dry Goods (1 8 )* * ___ Wholesale Groceries (44)** .. Wholesale Hardware (16)** .... Wholesale All (92)**$ ............. Chain Drugs (8 )*t ..................... ..... ..... ..... ..... .... 110 120 109 114 100 Oct. 1925 125 112 127 118 118 119 109 Oct. 1926 118 111 111 108 112 111 107 Oct. 1927 112 112 98 102 108 104 99 Oct. 1928 111 117 106 108 103 107 92 **Base =r Average monthly sales, 1928-1925 llncludes 4 shoe firms. TPer individual unit operated. Debits to Individual Accounts (In thousands of dollars) 4 weeks 1928 to % ending change date (Dec. Nov. 14, from 28-Nov. 1928 1927 14) 104,001 + 1 7 .4 1,199.620 Butler, Pa . . . 11,695 + 0.03 124,243 Canton.............. 42.308 + 1.7 534,720 Cincinnati........ 384,76S + 7.2 4,793,732 753,386 + 0 .6 9,078,283 151,459 + 6.4 1,820,035 3,977 Connellsville. . . + 0.1 46,413 83,916 Dayton............. + 7.2 1,046,730 36,173 + 13.3 403,393 Greensburg, Pa. 18,427 — 6.6 224,922 4.112 47.696 Homestead, Pa. + 4.7 19,225 — 16.5 260,408 Lexington, Ky.. 13,500 — 8.2 170,815 Lima................. 5,647 69,228 Lorain............... + 1.9 12,841 + 1 9 .8 140,246 Middletown.. . . 187,001 17,364 + 2 4 .2 Oil City, P a ... 943,724 + 1 0 .6 10,752,036 Pittsburgh, Pa.. 247,537 21,163 Springfield........ + 4.0 10,533 + 4.9 127,613 Steubenville___ + 3 6 .6 3,001,108 293,520 Toledo............... 151,703 12.877 + 3.7 Warren............. 544,874 50,033 + 2 4 .2 Wheeling, W. Va + 1 9 .4 795,655 69,877 Youngstown.... 145,169 13.099 + 3.5 1927 to date (Dec. 29-Nov. 16) 1,091.868 129,360 517,931 4,410,399 8,799.323 1,808,005 55,285 1,023,884 394,591 241,981 49,031 268,365 163,904 67,898 122,606 167,350 11,137,422 260,868 122,697 2,523,923 154,065 499,100 776,398 140,621 change from 1927 + 9 .9 — 4.0 + 3.2 + 8.7 + 3.2 + 0.7 — 16.0 + 2.2 + 2.2 — 7.0 — 2.7 — 3.0 + 4.2 + 2.0 + 1 4 .4 + 1 1 .7 — 3.5 — 5.1 + 4.0 + 1 8 .9 — 1.5 + 9.2 + 2.5 + 3.2 35,913,180 34,926,875 + 2.8 Total............. 3,077,622 + 9.1 % THE MONTHLY BUSINESS BEVIEW 8 Summary of National Business Conditions By the Federal Reserve Board Industry continued active in October, and the distribution o f com modities was in large volume. Wholesale commodity prices declined sharply, owing chiefly to decreases in the prices o f farm products. Member bank credit in use increased in October and November, while reserve bank credit outstanding showed little change. Conditions in the money market were somewhat easier. Production Index numbers o f production of manufactures and minerals, adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 = 100). Latest figures: October, manufactures— 114; minerals— 114. Index of U. S. Bureau o f Labor Statistics (1926 = 100). Latest figure: October— 97.8. aiumns or d o lla h s 2 BILLIONS Of DOLLARS r ~ 1 RESEFEVE BANK (: redit J \r Total reserve Bank Cnriit » J l/.5.S«cunties % / 1924 J AccaptMoa 1925 *5? 1926 1927 1928 Monthly averages o f daily figures for 12 Fed eral reserve banks. Latest figures are aver ages for first 23 days in November Industrial production continued in October at the high level of Septem ber and considerably above the level o f a year ago. Output o f minerals increased over September, while the production o f manufactures declined slightly. Factory employment and payrolls increased to the highest level since early in 1927. The production o f pig iron was particularly large in October and the first half o f November, and the output o f steel continued in record volume. Automobile production declined considerably in October after exceptional activity in September, and showed further reduction in November, as is usual at this season. Activity increased in October in meat packing and in the textile industries, with the exception o f silk. Cop per mining and smelting continued at a high level, and the output o f coal and petroleum increased by more than the usual seasonal amount, while the production o f zinc declined. There was also a decline in the output o f lumber and building materials. Building contracts awarded continued to increase in October, and were larger than in that month o f any previous year, but declined sharply during the first two weeks of November. The increase in October was due prin cipally to large contracts fo r engineering and industrial projects. The November cotton crop estimate of the Department o f Agriculture was slightly larger than the October estimate and indicated a yield o f 14,133,000 bales, 1,178,000 more than the production o f 1927. Ginnings o f the current crop prior to November 14 totaled 11,320,302 bales, compared with 10,894,912 in the similar period o f a year ago. Indicated yields o f wheat, corn, oats, potatoes, and tobacco were larger than the 1927 crops, while estimates o f hay, rye, and flaxseed were smaller. Trade Department store sales in October were in about the same volume as in the same period in the preceding year, but showed somewhat less than the seasonal increase from the high level o f September. Inventories o f these stores increased during the month, but continued smaller than a year ago. The volume of distribution at wholesale was larger than in September and showed a substantial gain over October, 1927. Freight car loadings continued larger in October and November than a year ago, reflecting chiefly large loadings o f miscellaneous freight. Prices Wholesale commodity prices declined in October after a continuous increase fo r three months, and the Bureau o f Labor Statistics index fo r October, at 97.8 per cent o f the 1926 average, was over two per cent below that fo r September. This decline reflected chiefly large decreases in prices of farm and food products and hides and leather. Prices o f industrial commodities increased slightly, with small gains recorded in metals, building materials and chemicals and drugs. The principal increases occurred in prices of iron and steel, copper and raw silk. During the first three weeks o f November, prices o f cotton, pig iron, copper and petroleum increased, and prices o f most farm and food products, except com , pork and sugar, recovered somewhat after the October decline. Bank Credit Monthly averages o f weekly figures for banks in 101 leading cities. Latest figures are aver ages for first three weekly report dates in November Between October 24. and November 21, there was a considerable in crease in loans and investments o f member banks in leading cities, but at the end of this period the total was still below the large volume out standing at the middle o f the year. Loans chiefly fo r commercial purposes remained at a high level during the period and loans on securities showed further growth, reflecting a marked increase in the volume o f loans to brokers and dealers in securities. Investments showed a further decline. During the four weeks ending November 21, there was little change in the volume of reserve bank credit in use. Reserve bank holdings of acceptances increased further and discounts fo r member banks declined. During the last week o f October and the first three weeks o f Novem ber, conditions in the money market were somewhat easier; the rate on fo u r to six months commercial paper declined from a level o f 5 ^ per cent to a range o f from 5% to 5% per cent, and rates on call and time loans in the open market also declined slightly.
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