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Business Review The Monthly Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District NNU 5 CLEVELAND, OHIO, DECEMBER 1, 1923 “ IF YOU ASK A RUBBER MANUFACTURER, A STEEL MANUFACTURER, OR A COAL OPERATOR HOW BUSINESS IS HE IS LIKELY TO REPORT THAT IT IS NOT VERY SATISFACTORY. WHAT HE REALLY MEANS IS THAT HE IS NOT MAKING THE PROFITS HE FEELS HE OUGHT TO MAKE. HE IS STILL EMPLOYING A PRACTICALLY FULL COMPLEMENT OF MEN, HOWEVER, IS NOT REDUCING SALARIES, AND IS DOING A LARGE VOLUME OF BUSINESS. THIS IS TRUE OF M ANY LINES OTHER THAN THOSE MENTIONED, AND THE MONEY THAT THE WELL EMPLOYED ARE SPENDING INDICATES THAT BUSINESS IN THE UNITED STATES, TAKEN AS A WHOLE, IS GOOD.” — E D IT O R IA L . FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND D. C. W ills, Chairman of the Board (COMPILED NOVEMBER 22, 1923) NO. 12 THE M O N T H L Y B U S I N E S S R E VI EW 2 An Editorial NFILLED order books are showing the thumb marks o f care ful study. The stoiies they tell vary somewhat but taking into consideration present seasonal tendencies the final pages for 1923 are not generally disappointing. U Smaller-lot but more frequent purchasing is much in evidence. The principal reason back of this policy may be summed up in two words—efficient transportation. Buyers know that they can have goods delivered on comparatively short notice; therefore they put off buying longer than was customary a few years ago. Perhaps more than ever before production is being gauged by forward buying while forward buying, in turn, is measured by consumptive requirements. With the closer relationship between production, distribution, and consumption, there apparently has arisen a sensitiveness to rumors both good and bad, a sensitiveness which possibly has been overdeveloped. While production in certain lines has slackened during recent months, business certainly is not at a low point. It was not to be expected that production would hold to the activity of the summer season when newly established records became so common as to cause little surprise. Rather it was anticipated that with the fall and winter months would come a slower and probably more enduring rate o f speed. Present conditions justify the wisdom of this farsightedness and at the same time they bear testimony to the underlying strength o f industry as a whole, to the stability o f our financial system, to the ability of buyers to purchase what they need, and to the con sumptive requirements of the country in the face o f a minimum pur chasing power from Europe. I f you ask a rubber manufacturer, a steel manufacturer, or a coal operator how business is he is likely to report that it is not very satis factory. What he really means is that he is not making the profits he feels he ought to make. He is still employing a practically full complement of men, however, is not reducing salaries, and is doing a large volume of business. This is true of many lines other than those mentioned, and the money that the well employed are spending indi cates that business in the United States, taken as a whole, is good. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 3 Loans to Country Banks Show Upward Trend; Number of Commercial Failures Higher Wrotn October 20 to November 10 loans to city on October 20 was 76.6 per cent as against 76.9 iU fc s in the Fourth District showed a gradual per cent on November 20. ard trend, reaching a total of $54,439,000 on Savings deposits continue to gain. Reports from fatter date. Following that, however, a down representative banks in the Fourth District for the month of October, 1923, show a gain of 16.4 ward movement occurred until on November 20 fejr stood at $42,787,000, about the same figure as on per cent as compared with the same month last Gfctober 20. year. As compared with the previous month, O c tober shows a gain of 1.3 per cent. Loans to country banks continue to show an According to R. G. Dun & Company, commercial ir m n r On October 20 they were $15,563,000 failures in the Fourth District for the month of *s compared with $17,386,000 on November 20, a October totaled 137 as against 95 for the previous gain for the month of $1,823,000. The buying of month, an increase for the month of 42. Liabilities five stock for fattening purposes is an outstanding for October totaled $7,706,539 as compared with feature. $2,741,378 for September. This is an increase for the Total loans to our member banks on November month of $4,965,161 or 181.1 per cent. The average 20 were $60,173,000 as compared with $40,405,000 per firm for October was $56,252 as against $28,on the same date a year ago, or an increase of 857 for September, an increase of $27,395 or 94.9 per cent. Comparing October with the same month $19768,000. last year, a drop of 9.3 per cent in the number On October 20 the reserve ratio of this bank of failures is shown. In the same comparison the was 79.5 per cent as compared with 79.9 per cent total liabilities are 36.3 per cent greater and the on November 20. The reserve ratio of the System average per firm 50.3 per cent greater. r Prospects in Iron and Steel Industry Favorable but New Tonnage Is Slow; Buying of Pig Iron Principal Feature in M arket; Production About 70 to 75 Per Cent o f Capacity Prospects for the future in iron and steel have remained favorable but new tonnage as yet has not come out freely and has remained considerably ander the rate of recent production. As a re m it unfilled orders have continued to shrink and production to taper off, although the latter has been in a. very gradual fashion. The volume of new business placed for quick shipment has been considerable as buyers apparently have been dis posed to maintain a waiting attitude either in the hope or expectation of lower prices or out of an uncertainty concerning future business conditions. The volume of this quick-shipment business plus the movement of tonnage against old orders re mains a favorable index to the extent and sus tained character of current consumption. Apparently the use of steel in the country is g oin g forward at a comparatively high rate and any general and large scale buying by a repre sentative class such as the railroads would doubtless quickly stimulate an active market sit uation. The railroads are buying right along in a w ay that matches up very favorably in some lines with other years but their promised pro gram of heavy equipment purchases has been shaping up more slowly than expected. At present the situation looks better in this regard, for defi nite inquiries for cars and locomotives are now reaching the builders. At Chicago 18,000 cars are actually tinder inquiry with several times as many reported to be on the verge of reaching the market. The whole steel market apparently seems to be waiting for the railroads to give the key as to the future, and any appreciable revival seems likely to turn on how extensively they release their equipment purchases. In other major branches of steel consumption the outlook is satisfactory. New contracts and inquiries for steel in the building line are holding up well especially for this season. The volume of work in prospect is very large. The automobile situation offers encouragement as automobile manufac turers are planning a large schedule of production during the first quarter. Shipbuilding is showing some revival. Merchant pipe demand for building and domestic use keeps up heavily though oil field requirements are depressed. The canning and packing industry is looking forward to a b ig year and tin plate producers expect 1924 to be greater than 1923 which was record-breaking. Indications point to a large demand for cast iron pipe for next year. The farming implement situation looks better than for several years. W ith Japan having recently placed about 200,000 tons of orders in this country, the export situation has been good. The outstanding feature of the iron and steel market at mid-November was the inauguration of the heavy buying movement in pig iron after seven ^months of sluggish and declining market conditions. Fully 700,000 tons of iron were placed THE 4 MONTHLY BUSINESS under contract by buyers for the balance of the year and for the first quarter of next year and the activity is continuing at a high rate. Prices in pig iron have fallen $9 to $10 a ton since last April until for many producers they apparently are below cost and the attractiveness of the market now has been generally realized by the buyers. Following the heavy bookings, prices have stiffened and some advance is now foreshadowed. Large buyers have set the pace in this buying movement. General production in iron and steel at present is around 70 to 75 per cent of capacity. This, however, still represents a scale of tonnage that stands up notably with previous large years. Steel ingot capacity in October was at the calculated annual rate of 40,735,000 tons. The high record of ingots for a full year for the country was 43,600,000 tons in 1917. The decline in the October rate of ingot production from August was but 0.93 per cent. Pig iron production in October as com REVIEW piled by Iron Trade Review was at the average daily rate of 101,685 tons compared with 103,917 tons in September, a decline of 2.1 per cent. Production in October was at the annual rate of 37,115,000 tons compared with the high record for a full year of about 39,000,000 tons in 1916. Steel prices have shown some tendency toward softness but this has not been pronounced except in a few lines. The larger producers have been maintaining their schedules and in the major lines at least the market has been surprisingly steady. Whether the leading producers in an effort to re vive buying and bring users out of their present waiting mood, will eventually make a general reduction of prices, is an open question. Iron Trade Review’s composite of fourteen leading iron and steel products for the week of November 22 fell to $42.63 against $43.70 one month previously. Most of this decline has been accounted for by the fall in pig iron. Crude Oil Situation Shows Little Change; Refined Products Market Very Unsettled Another round of crude oil price reductions has occurred since our last report including the MidContinent, Rocky Mountain, and Central States fields. According to National Petroleum News this further reduction has brought about the most un settled condition in the refined product market of recent years. An encouraging factor in the situation is the slight but continued decrease in the daily output in the California and Oklahoma districts. In ad dition to this, consumption which has shown a marked upward trend has reached a very high point and those who have studied the situation carefully see in the greater use a champion which will eventually do away with the evils of overpro duction. The demand for kerosene has shown a notice able increase due largely to fall and early winter consumption. Automotive Production and Sales Hold to Good Level; Truck Business Increases Slightly; Department o f Commerce Report An increase in production featured October activities in the automotive industry, due largely to the fact that there were several additional working days during that month. Passenger car output in particular showed a marked advance, reaching a total of 334,966 cars or a gain of more than 36,000 cars over the previous month. While manufacturers do not expect the closing weeks of the year to hold to the high rate of production which was established during the sum mer and fall, no more than the customary slowing down in either sales or plant operations is antici pated. At present plans are being made relative to the annual inventory taking. Sales are holding to an unusually good level, particularly in the closed type of car. Export business with those countries south of the equator is showing an up ward trend. The truck division of the industry is reported to be showing slightly increased activity. A t present the inquiries for new motor trucks are quite heavy but many of the prospective buyers are putting off actual purchasing until after January 1 Automobile Production The Department of Commerce announces October production of automobiles, based on figures re ceived from 186 manufacturers, 96 making passen ger cars and 119 making trucks (29 making both passenger cars and trucks). Data for earlier months include 12 additional manufacturers now out of business. Figures on truck production also include fire apparatus and street sweepers. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW NUM BER O F M ACHINES J a n t a r y .................................... F ebru ary................................... March ...................................... April ........................................ M ay .......................................... J a n e .......................................... JWy .............. August ..................................... September ............................... O ctober..................................... November................................. Decem ber................................. ♦Revised. 1921 43,086 68,088 130,263 176,439 177,438 150,263 *165,616 *167,756 144,670 *134,774 106,081 *70,727 Passenger Cars 1922 *81,696 109,171 *152,962 *197,224 *232,462 263,053 *225,086 *249,492 *187,694 *217,566 *215,352 *208,010 1923 223,819 *254,773 *319,770 344,639 *350,410 *337,362 297,330 *314,373 *298,911 334,966 Trucks 1921 1922 1923 4,831 *9,576 *19,720 7,830 *13,350 *22,161 13,328 *20,022 *35,260 18,070 *22,640 *38,056 18,070 *24,097 *43,678 14,328 *26,298 *41,145 *11,136 *22,046 *30,663 *13,400 *24,692 *30,829 *13,978 *19,462 *28,632 *13,149 *21,795 30,141 *10,487*21,949 ................. *8,656*20,354 ................. Boot and Shoe Production Gains in October Final figures on boot and shoe production in the Fourth District for the month of September show a decrease of 25.8 per cent as compared with the preceding month. For the country as a whole production figures received by the United States Bureau of the Census show that the total September oon m t wa, 8.5 per cent less than that of August. Preliminary figures on October production in this District, however, show a gain of 4.9 per cent as compared with September. In a similar comparison for the United States the output gained ^ Per in October as compared with September. . t . Immediate business m the retail trade, as a rule, i n * e ' ‘ order" due largely to the uncertainty relative to styles. Manufactured Goods Principal Feature of Present Heavy Traffic; Equipment in Good Shape to M eet Winter Traffic Demands; Earnings Slightly Less Than Last Month The movement of revenue , freight continued hptvy during the past month with loadings running well over 1,000,000 cars a week, but at no time was the high peak of September 29 reached. In the week ending October 27 the carriers handled 1,073,965 cars, as compared with 1,072,881 cars for the week of October 20. The record for the week ending September 29 was 1,097,274 cars. So far this year there have been 19 weeks which have shown loadings of over 1,000,000 cars. During the month there was a further decrease in the number of surplus cars while car shortages remained about the same. Shipments of forest products have shown a pleasing recovery while the movement of manufactured goods continues to be the outstanding . liie winter season naturally slows down traffic movement somewhat and as a result more cars are required. In view of the present efficiency of the carriers, however, and also taking into considera- tion the fact that a seasonal decline in shipments is customary at this time of year, railroad authorities quite generally believe that no severe shortage will be experienced. From January 1 to October 1 the railroads placed in service 134,636 new freight cars and 2,963 locomotives. The Department of Commerce announces that shipments of locomotives from manufacturers in October totaled 310 as against 335 in September and 145 in October, 1922. Unfilled orders at the end of October amounted to 977 locomotives as compared with 1,178 for the previous month and 1,538 for October a year ago. Railroad freight earnings during September were at a somewhat lower rate than in August, the country as a whole showing 4.46 per cent. * August earnings were 4.94 per cent. During the first nine months of the year the Great Lakes district roads earned an average of 5.8 per cent and that Ohio-Indiana-Allegheny district roads 5.35 per cent. Building Curve Turns Upward; “ Off Season99 Building Considered Good Sign; Permits Gain Over Last Year The curve of building operations took an upward turn in October as compared with the decided downward tendency during the previous two months. While the edge may be off the demand THE 6 MONTHLY BUSINESS for construction work in some places, building permit records show that much new work is being carried on. It appears to be the general belief of contractors and architects that a considerable amount of activity is in sight. This tendency of revival in building activity as winter approaches is regarded as a good sign by those who constantly observe the trend of the industry. It seems to indicate that there will be a large amount of construction going forward during the time designated as the “ off season” for building. This may be attributed in part to the campaign being conducted by the Government aided by such organizations as the Builders Exchange, recommending that work be done in the construc tion of buildings through the winter season so as to avoid the big rush in the spring when the de mand for both men and materials naturally is at its height. Transportation facilities for moving building materials are good, funds are obtainable for legit REVIEW imate construction, the supply of labor is more in harmony with the demand than was the ease six months ago and while high building costs are still an important factor in holding up construc tion work, building apparently goes on in spite of existing high costs. Taking the above facts into consideration those in close touch with the in dustry believe that the immediate future is brighter in outlook than it was in August and September. In Cleveland proper the valuation o f building permits in October this year was $5,733,300 as compared with $2,928,875 for October, 1922. W ith the returns for November and December yet to be received the total valuation of permits issued in the Fifth City of the country aggregates $51,500,000 this year in comparison with $47,000,000 for the period to November 1, 1922. A similar surplus exists in the valuation o f per mits for the suburban communities adjacent to the city proper, the valuation for 1923 to N o vember 1 being $30,679,000 in comparison with $27,635,000 for the ten-month period in 1922. Portland Cement Production Sets New Record in October; Increased Efficiency of Railroads Material Aid Production of portland cement in October was the largest for any month this year and inci dentally broke all records for a single month. A report of the United States Geological Survey just issued places the total production for the month at 13,350,000 barrels compared with 13,100,000 in September and less than 12,300.000 a year ago. For the ten months ending October 31, over 114,000,000 barrels were produced exceeding last year’s record output for the same period by 20,000,000 barrels or 22 per cent. Shipments from the mills in October were 14,285,000 barrels, an increase of about 11 per cent over October, 1922. Shipments for the ten months were close to 119,000,000 barrels or more than was shipped during the entire banner year of 1922. Stocks o f cement in manufacturers’ hands at the end of October were about 4,600,000 barrels or 450,000 barrels more than a year ago. Consideration of the facts that stocks of cement at the beginning of the year were very much lower than at the beginning of 1922 and that the ten months’ shipments have been 17,000,000 barrels greater than last year indicates how successfully the industry has coped with the heavy demand. The greatly increased efficiency of the transportation systems has helped mate rially in making this record possible and recent in creases in productive capacity have given the in dustry a substantially greater output. Lumber Buyers Manifest Cautious Attitude; Trend o f Prices Downward• Furniture Manufacturers Anticipate Heavier Demand The lumber industry experienced a slight flurry during the early part of October but the increased buying activity was of short duration. At the present writing the mills are not getting orders enough to cover production and are gradually curtailing their output. November and December naturally are slack since much of the outdoor con struction work is completed by that time, and buy ing therefore becomes a hand-to-mouth affair for the winter months. The trend of prices during the last month has been downward. In the average fall season there is no slowing down of the lumber business until after the first of December, and this leads to the maintenance of high prices. The fall season this year, however, opened with a cautious attitude on the part of the buyers and they have naturally followed the policy of buying for current re quirements only. As these requirements grow less with the advent of winter, prices have softened gradually. The industry in general anticipates a good volume of business for next year. Furniture manufacturers are increasing their stocks in anticipation of bigger demand for house furnishings. The auto mobile industry is calling for closed models and this is expected to increase the demand for hardwood THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 1 I Brick Trade Optimistic; Paving Brick Shipments Continue Heavy The brick industry is showing healthy activity. According to the Common Brick Manufacturers Association this industry at present is more sub stantial than at any previous time in the past ten years and is gradually working toward an even firmer basis. Winter construction is bringing in a consider able volume of business. As a result of this and in view of the status of the industry as a whole, many manufacturers are reported to be planning an extension of their product. There is also a marked trend toward consolidation and centraliza tion o f production. That the paving season, because of a wet spring generally and a late start, is running later in the fall this year than is customary, is indicated by the continued heavy shipments of vitrified pav ing brick as reported by the National Paving Brick Manufacturers Association. Shipments for the month o f October were 34,287,000 as against 34,761.000 for September. The total number of brick manufactured was 34,317,000 for October and 34,457.000 for September. Stock on hand was reported at 76,613,000 for October as against 86,530,000 for September. Ohio led all other states in the purchase of paving brick, buying 6,763,000 for city streets and 4.950.000 for country highways. Illinois, Minne sota, and Pennsylvania followed closely in the order named. Burley Tobacco Growers Look Forward to Opening o f Selling Season; November Crop Estimate Shows Reduction The tobacco growers in the Burley section are looking forward to the opening o f the sale sea son for the 1923 crop. It is expected that the in dependent loose leaf warehouses will start the season about the first week in December, and that the Burley Tobacco Growers' Co-operative Asso ciation will begin to receive tobacco from its members soon thereafter. The November crop report for Kentucky esti mates a production in Kentucky of 476,280,000 pounds of tobacco of all types. The October esti mate was 507,125,000 pounds, while the production o f all types in 1922 was 446,250,000 pounds. These totals include both the dark types in western Ken tucky and Burley since separate estimates are not made. The report indicates that the quality this year is 83 per cent as compared to 88 per cent in 1922. It also indicates that the acreage of both Burley and the dark types was increased in 1923 but that the yield per acre for the state as a whole is less this year. The report of the Bureau of the Census on stocks of tobacco indicates that 342,884,760 pounds of Burley were in the hands o f dealers and manufac turers on October 1, 1923, as compared with hold ings of 280,856,317 pounds on October 1 of last year. Holiday Buying Active in Wholesale Grocery Lines; Heavy Consumption Anticipated Holiday buying is showing increased activity in the wholesale grocery trade. Present indications point to a healthy demand for items such as dried fruits, nuts, and new canned goods which are always popular at this season of the year. From a production standpoint the past canning season is quite generally considered to have been satisfactory. Both producers and wholesale gro cers refer to the quality of the goods and also to the comparatively small number of unemployed throughout the country as being good reasons for anticipating a heavy consumption. The markets are reported to be active. Future prices on peas have been named by a number of interests and increasing business has resulted. This early nam ing of prices is pointed out as an index of the present strong position of the market. Farm Implement Men Decide to Tell the Public More About Their Product; Immediate Activity Seasonably Quiet The^ farm implement industry has had three dis couraging years, years which have engaged not more than 40 per cent of its productive capacity. It has accepted this as an inevitable result of what was believed to be a lack of buying power on the part af the farmer. But during the last few months it has been studying^ facts with a view to finding the weakness in this important link of the country’s chain of progress. ^It ^has found that the mail order houses whose principle business is with farmers have built up the largest volume in their history. It has learned that farmers in many sections of the country have been reducing their indebetdness to THE 8 MONTHLY BUSINESS banks. In short, while the farmers have more money and are in the market for goods, implement men are not sharing in the buying movement to any great extent. “ W hy isn’t the implement industry getting its share of the farmer’s business? What can be done to induce farmers to buy the machinery which is the actual foundation of their business?” These questions were uppermost in the dis cussions at the annual convention of the Na tional Association of Farm Equipment Manufac turers held in Cleveland a short time ago. Their solution was aided by the president of a large auto mobile company who told the implement manufac turers that one reason why automobile manufac turers were able to sell to the farmers while the implement makers had little success was be cause the automobile manufacturers had spent $60,000,000 in advertising in 1922 while during the same year the implement industry had spent but $825,000. A meeting of the national implement dealers or ganization was held at Chicago recently. At that meeting is was stated that dealers are handicapped in selling because the farmers do not fully appre ciate what improved implements mean to them in the way of reduced production costs and labor saving, and that they are thinking principally of the prices they have to pay for machinery. More publicity was urged at the meeting; not publicity of the competitive type but general publicity re garding the industry and its products and their meaning to the farmer. These messages together with the serious thought which was given to the subject by other manufacturers resulted in a de cision to advertise the industry to the public in an institutional way. The necessary machinery for such work was authorized to be set up at their headquarters in Chicago. REVIEW Both dealers and manufacturers in their re spective conventions devoted considerable time to discussing the cost of goods. It was the gen eral belief, according to the Chilton Tractor & Imple ment Journal, that manufacturing costs ramnf be ma terially reduced, but there was a feeling that the costs of selling, which approximate the cost of manufacturing, might be lowered. Immediate activity is seasonably quiet. The demand for lines sold at this time of year such as feed mills, corn shellers, manure spreaders, and dairy equipment is slightly ahead of last year. * A d vances which range from 5 to 10 per cent and which probably average about 7 per cent have been announced by most companies for 1924 goods. This is resulting in conservative buying on the part of the dealers who are not disposed to con tract for more than apparent requirements and who are making a close comparison of prices. Naturally this is backing up on the manufac turers and is holding up manufacturing schedules. While it is conservatively estimated on the basis of pre-war purchases that the farmers are a billion dollars short in their purchases of farm machin ery since 1920, it is not evident that the business of 1924 will be greatly in excess of 1923. The in dustry, however, is generally hopeful and in a measure confident that general conditions between now and the opening of spring work will ac celerate buying. The Department of Commerce has recently is sued its report on implement production for 1922 showing a production for that year valued at *2nQ640,000 or 36.1 per cent less than ttat fo j 1921 This is far below the high mark of $536,945 000 which was reached in 1920. Production for 1923 is generally considered about 25 per cent greater than for 1922, although the figures will not h# known until late in 1924. Paper Production Holds Up Fairly Well; Holiday Buying Brings Better Business to Box Board Makers During the past month there have been no par ticular developments in the pulp and paper in dustry. While production has been holding up fairly well the tonnage has not been sufficient to keep the mills fully occupied and as a result some reductions in price have taken place. Writing paper has been fairly firm in price but the merchants are delaying their orders in an effort to reduce stocks on hand. Consequently the mills are oper ating at less than full capacity, which is unusual at this time of year. Apparently the developments of the past month have been meeting previous anticipations in most respects, namely a fair volume of business but below normal, with a price situation somewhat weak. With the approach of the inventory taking period a further decline in the volume of orders is expected. There exists today in the book paper business a considerable surplus of production capacity as compared with an absolutely normal consumption and no doubt this is largely responsible for the’ present price situation. However there have been price reductions in raw materials to an extent sufficient to at least partially counteract the lower prices for the finished product. The paper box board trade is reported to be in a fairly satisfactopr condition at present Sh* ments for the holidays are going forward in fefr THE MONTHLY BUSINESS volume while frequent requests for quick delivery indicate that consumption has been well maintained. Stocks are generally reported to be REVIEW 9 low. The demand at present covers practically all grades and sizes, with fancy boxes for display and containers for stores and factories moving freely. C older Weather Provides Incentive to Heavier Coal Buying; October Anthracite Production About Three Times That o f September As usual colder weather has strengthened the demand for soft coal. Consequently a larger coal business is being transacted, a considerable part of which is being moved on a contract basis, at fair prices. In the case of new business which does not carry with it the guarantee of future shipments, prices are much lower. Companies doing a stabilized business, however, appear to be showing good returns. The course of stocks since September 1 is not accurately known but the available information indicates that production has exceeded consump tion and that reserves have increased. Produc tion, therefore, has not yet been affected to any great extent. The total output of soft coal in October is now estimated at 49,171,000 tons, an increase over September of 2,955,000 tons or 6 per cent. During both the first and second weeks in November, however, the total weekly output was below the average weekly output of 10,800,000 tons for the four weeks in October, and preliminary reports for the week ending November 17 indicate that total production for that week will not be much over 10,000,000 tons. ^The average daily production during the past six weeks has hovered around the 1,800,000-ton mark which is slightly below that of 1922. At no time, however, has the rate this year dropped be low 1,600,000 tons per day. Production during the first 266 working days of 1923 was approximately 478,000,000 tons, which places 1923 far ahead of the recent years of depression and only 32,000,000 tons behind the record year, 1918. Final returns on the production of anthracite coal in October indicate that 8,724,000 tons were produced. This was about three times the output in September when production was greatly re duced by the strike of the anthracite miners, and was but 144,000 tons less than August. Produc tion for the week ending November 10 is esti mated at 1,967,000 tons which represents a de crease of 102,000 tons when compared with the most recent full-time week, that ending October 27. A summary o f the data received by the Geo logical Survey up to October 15 shows a total of approximately 666,000,000 tons of coal produced during the first half of 1923. This is an increase of about 79,400,000 tons or 13.3 per cent over the corresponding period last year. The most notable increases in production were in the United States, United Kingdom, and Poland, the proportion con tributed by the United States being 44 per cent of the total. 10 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Debits to Individual Accounts Week Ending Nov. 14, 1923 (324 Banks) Akron.................. .. 3 15,375,000 3,739,000 Butler, Pa........... 9,563,000 Canton................ 69,049,000 Cincinnati........... 148,777,000 Cleveland............ . 31,000,000 Columbus............ 1,222,000 Connellsville....... 14,843,000 Dayton................ 7,543,000 Erie...................... 4,172,000 Greens burg......... 875,000 Homestead.......... 4,180,000 Lexington, K y . .. 3,729,000 Lima.................... 1,600,000 Lorain.................. 1,856,000 Middletown*. . . . 2,717,000 New Brighton. . . 2,988,000 Oil City............... 176,342,000 Pittsburgh.......... 4,897,000 Springfield.......... 42,276,000 Toledo................. 3,174,000 Warren, Ohio.. . . 10,276,000 Wheeling............. 14,782,000 Youngstown....... 2,824,000 Zanesville............ Week Ending Oct. 17,1923 (324 Banks) $ 15,702,000 3,082,000 9,956,000 75,206,000 150,283,000 32,575,000 1,334,000 16,220,000 7.940.000 5.814.000 979,000 4,520,000 4,218,000 1,712,000 2,050,000 2,775,000 3,035,000 181,641,000 4,807,000 40,933,000 3,310,000 10,010,000 13,740,000 2,799,000 Increase or Decrease Week Ending Increase or Decrease Amount Per Cent Nov. 15, 1922 Amount Per Cent (323 Banks) $ - 327,000 - 2.1 $ 14,287,000 $ 1,088,000 7 .6 21.3 657,000 2,533,000 1,206,000 47.6 393,000 - 3.9 8,928,000 635,000 7.1 - 6,157,000 - 8.2 69,696,000 647,000 - 0 .9 - 1,506,000 - 1.0 139,114,000 9,663,000 6 .9 - 1,575,000 - 4.8 31,939,000 939,000 - 2 .9 112,000 - 8.4 1,565,000 343,000 -2 1 .9 - 1,377,000 - 8.5 13,800,000 1,043,000 7 .6 397,000 - 5.0 7,260,000 283,000 3 .9 - 1,642,000 -2 8 .2 4,179,000 7,000 - 0 .2 104,000 -10.6 711,000 164,000 23.1 340,000 - 7.5 7,401,000 - 3,221,000 -4 3 .5 489,000 -11.6 4,016,000 287,000 - 7.1 112,000 - 6.5 1,568,000 32,000 2.0 194,000 - 9.5 58,000 - 2.1 2,582,000 135,000 ’ Sii 47,000 - 1.5 3,365,000 377,000 -1 1 .2 - 5,299,000 - 2.9 178,053,000 - 1,711,000 - 1.0 90,000 1.9 4,897,000 1,343,000 3.3 49,706,000 - 7,430,000 -i4.9 136,000 - 4.1 3,024,000 150,000 5.0 266,000 2.7 10,048,000 228,000 2.3 7.6 1,042,000 12,972,000 1,810,000 14.0 25,000 0.9 2,975,000 151,000 - 5.1 $594,641,000 $-16,842,000 Total........... . $577,799,000 *Debits for corresponding period 1922 not available. - 2.8 $574,619,000 $ 1,324,000 0 .2 M ovement of Livestock at Principal Centers in Fourth Federal Reserve District for Month of October, 1923-1922 Cattle Cincinnati........... Cleveland............ Columbus............ Dayton................ Fostoria............... Marion................ Pittsburgh.......... Springfield.......... Toledo ............ Wheeling............. Cincinnati........... Cleveland............ Columbus............ Fostoria.............. Marion................ Pittsburgh.......... Springfield.......... Toledo................. 1923 1922 ........ 37,084 38,160 ........ 12,773 13,536 ........ 30 82 ........ 2,820 2,942 ........ 1,105 2,493 ........ 64 192 ........ 46,296 50,991 ........ 334 625 ........ 1,279 1,679 1,053 469 ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ 18,019 15,942 10,793 11,875 30 61 166 20 54 163 7,860 7,213 368 582 Hogs Sheep 1922 1923 127,747 155,251 96,044 91,713 7,246 5,165 11,512 17,491 12,812 9,556 9,940 9,211 263,401 310,721 7,988 6,417 11,235 13,158 1,699 2,945 Purchases for Local 48,561 69,793 75,520 63,426 442 455 1,108 275 2,195 2,445 50,815 58,578 492 661 2,928 Calves 1922 1923 19,719 16,420 33,921 43,970 46 425 682 1,238 1,995 2,989 1,256 1,022 74,643 87,205 600 1,628 1,902 1,305 338 794 Slaughter 8,742 7,460 16,104 17,176 46 125 10 7 5 9 11,638 10,509 111 . 139 141 1923 11,767 10,060 108 839 453 204 37,991 245 671 1,862 1922 11,655 11,020 216 766 426 147 36,273 194 639 1,008 6,167 9,436 16 59 108 7,895 25 573 5,406 10,029 33 50 138 7,190 43 Cars Unloaded 1923 1922 2,555 2,399 1,756 1,870 10 10 35 88 5,239 5,686 133 38 184 17 Wholesale Trade Percentage Increase (or Decrease) in Net Sales During October, 1923, as Compared with September, 1923, and October, 1922 Dry Goods Net Sales (selling price) during October, 1923, compared with September, 1923................ ....................................................... Net Sales (selling price) during October, 1923, compared with October, 1922.............................................................................. 0.2 Hardware 12.7 16 ~ Drugs 6. 3 13 . Groceries 11.6 16.0 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 11 Comparative Statement of Selected M em ber Banks in Fourth District Nov. 14, 1923 (81 Banks) Oct. 17, 1923 (81 Banks) Increase $ 27,661,000 $ 27,898,000 .................. 402,558,000 696,101,000 47,982,000 116,416,000 4,499,000 56,559,000 5,491,000 294,241,000 1,651,508,000 110,445,000 32,727,000 893,506,000 602,322,000 8,757,000 2,097,169,000 410.624.000 694.028.000 47.990.000 118.668.000 4.697.000 58.267.000 9.778.000 296.074.000 1.668.024.000 106.311.000 32.783.000 917.670.000 598.423.000 15.741.000 2.119.517.000 Decrease Loins and Discounts secured by U. S. Govern ment obligations.............................................. * and Discounts secured by other stocks and bonds................................................................ liw r o and Discounts, all other............................. G. S. Pre-War Bonds............................................. 0 . S. Liberty Bonds............................................... U. S. Treasury Bonds............................................. U. S. Treasury Notes............................................. U. S. Certificates of Indebtedness........................ Other Bonds, Stocks, and Securities.................... Total Loans, Discounts, and Investments.......... Reserve with Federal Reserve Bank.................... Cash in Vault.......................................................... Net Demand Deposits........................................... Tim e Deposits......................................................... Government Deposits............................................. Total Resources on date of this report................ 237.000 8,066,000 2,073,000 ...... 8,000 2.252.000 198.000 1.708.000 4.287.000 1.833.000 16.516.000 4,134,000 56,oo6 24.164.000 3,899,000 ’ 6,984,666 22.348.000 Building Operations for M onth o f October, 1923-1922 Permits Issued Valuation Increase or Decrease New Construction AlterationsNew Construction Alterations Amount Per Cent 1923 1922 1923 1922 1923 1922 1923 1922 A k r o n ........... 360 225 7881 $ 656,669 $ 384,796$ 41,096 $ 50,217 $262,752 60.4 C a n ton ......... 284 164 71 62 678,899 386,445 31,663 36,145 287,972 68.1 Cincinnati... 448 409 263 255 2,620,230 1,320,470 266,630 281,100 1,285,290 80.3 C levelan d *.. 994 700 1,380 910 7,841,090 4,546,907 966,010 682,800 3,577,393 68.4 C olu m b u s... 537 418 140 129 1,165,495 2,669,640 180,005 118,960 -1,443,100 — 51.7 214 214 135 71 604,370 484,949 109,826 36,446 192,801 37.0 D a y to n ........ E rie .............. 142 101 38 29 333,845 235,689 126,055 25,958 198,253 75.8 L ex in g ton ... 52 60 27 40 147,940 87,012 28,220 12,168 76,980 77.6 P ittsburgh.. 518 448 137 113 1,882,091 1,904,791 179,357 598,695 - 442,038 — 17.7 Springfield.. 89 84 26 21 87,950 103,380 17,825 4,965 2,570 — 2 .4 T o le d o .......... 467 262 181 212 1,077,516 528,830 270,903175,672 643,917 91.4 W h eelin g .... 89 77 38 33 604,952 212,300 21,53020,440 393,742 169.2 Youngstown. 215 151 38 21 494,390 409,455 21,450 10,900 95,485 22.7 T o ta l... 4,409 3,313 2,552 1,977 $ 18,195,437 $13,274,664 $2,260,570 $2,054,466 $5,126,877 •Includes figures for East Cleveland, Lakewood, Cleveland Heights, and Shaker Heights. 33.4 Department Store Sales (1) r (2) (3) Percentage o f Increase or Decrease No. of Reports A k ron............... C anton............. Cincinnati....... Cleveland........ Columbus........ D a y ton ............ Pittsburgh-----T oled o.............. Y oungstow n... 4 3 9 5 6 2 7 4 3 Percentage of average stocks Comparison of net sales wi th Stocks at end of month com* at end of each those of corresponding period pared with month from last year Jul y 1 to October 31 to A B A B average October July 1 October September, monthly sales to Oct. 31 1922 1923 period"1C 8.6 3 .3 11.6 9. 0 425 9 21. 2 15.6 5. 0 3. 3 740 4 23.3 18.7 12.6 4 .2 486 4 9 .9 12.6 19.3 5. 8 387 9 13.3 17.0 17.8 6. 2 428 0 18.2 13.8 20.1 13.0 437 1 17.5 17.7 22.1 7 .7 370*4 15.9 14.3 28.4 11.2 382 5 19.4 25. 2 24.5 4 0 282 3 D '8" 1" ............ 46* 15.7 15.6 U. S. Average 12.5 10.4 includes three reports from other cities. 19.6 14.5 7.0 5.3 4(Xh9 424.5 (4) Percentage of outstanding orders at end o f Oc t o b e r , 1923, to total purchases during calendar year 1922 8 3 7 9 77 8 1 10*3 9 0 7 8 8 4 8^3 8.1 12 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Summary o f Business and Credit Conditions in the United States B y the Federal Reserve Board Production of basic commodities and retail trade increaaed daring Octobei and the volume of freight shipments and wholesale trade continued large. The level of wholesale prices and the volume of employment showed bat little change. PRODUCTION The Federal Reserve Board’s index of production in basic indnstrif ad vanced 3 per cent in October, after having declined for four m/w-t— The increase for the month, while due in part to the resumption of anthracite r ^ 1 mining, also reflected increases in textiles, lumber, and sugar, and most industries included in the index. Employment at industrial showed practically no change between September and October. Contract awards for new buildings increased throughout the country con siderably more than is usual at this season, and were 25 per cent larger in September. Residential projects formed a larger proportion of the total in any earlier month of the year. Crop estimates by the Department of Agriculture on November 1 indi cated a substantial reduction from the September forecast in the yield el rotton. but larger yields of corn, potatoes, and apples. TRADE Heavy movement of miscellaneous merchandise and live stock resulted in October in the largest railroad shipments of any month on record. Wholesale trade was 12 per cent larger than a year ago and sales in all leading IW g except shoes showed increases. Department store sales were 13 per cent larger last October and sales of mail order houses were the largest of any nm th since 1919. PRICES Wholesale prices declined less than one per cent in October, according to the index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and stood approximately at the level of a year ago. The principal changes for the month were declines in the prices of fuel, clothing, metals, and animal products, while wholesale prices of crops, particularly cotton, increased. During the first half of November the prices of wheat, hogs, pig iron, and hides receded, and prices of cotton goods, cement, and copper advanced. BANK CREDIT Since the middle of October there has been a slight decline in demand for credit for commercial and agricultural purposes at member in leading cities. Considerable decreases in borrowings for these purposes in the New York and Chicago districts were partially offset by increases in other districts. Loans secured by stocks and bonds increased somewhat, while investments con tinued to decline and reached the low point for the year. The total member bank accommodation at Federal Reserve h»"Vs between October 17 and November 21. and on the latter date was the lowest since the middle of the year. The total volume of Federal Reserve credit outstanding, however, remained relatively constant because of w ^ tased pur chases of bills in the open market. The volume of Federal Reserve note circu lation declined by about $50,000,000 during the period, while other forms of money in circulation increased. Money rates showed an easier tendency and during the early part of No vember the open market rate on commercial paper in New York fa-nm 5-5J4 to 5 per cent.
@FedFRASER