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MONTHLY APRIL 1950 CONTENTS Recent Banking Trends The Value of Local Business Statistics Statistical Tables K e v i e 11 w F IN A N C E e IN D U S T R Y • A G R IC U L T U R E • TRAD E FOURTH Vol. 32— No. 4 FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Cleveland 1, Ohio Recent Banking Trends Real Estate One of the distinguishing characterLoans Expand istics present t h r o u g h o u t the first quarter was the further expansion of mortgage lending at the large weekly reporting banks. The existence of a secondary market for mortgages through the operations of R.F.C. and F.N.M.A. is undoubtedly a major factor in inducing private lend ing of this nature. Currently, the resurgence of borrowing for real estate development is of considerable significance in maintaining a high level of private domestic invest ment. Both in the Fourth District and nationally, it presents a positive contrast to the temporary curtail ment of the postwar mortgage boom which was apparent during the early months of last year. The impact of recent wage increases on building costs has not yet had time to be reflected in the demand for mortgage credit, nor does it appear that the proposed further expansion of federal aid for housing has caused any substantial changes of immediate plans. Other Types of Loans Further expansion has also been evident in the “all other loans” group, which continues to move upward to new peaks. Not least among the factors contributing to this growth is the increasing volume of instalment credit. Data received so far from Fourth District banks reporting consumer loans indicate that the major strength of the instalment boom lies in the demand for automobiles, television, and other major household appliances and consumer durables, while repair and modernization loans as well as personal loans have remained virtually unchanged. The pos sibility that this “strength” may later turn out to be weakness in terms of people’s ability to buy should a downswing in business activity occur, was discussed in the March issue of the Review. At the present time, personal incomes are apparently adequate both to prevent any noticeable decline in the rate of re payments and to form a base for an undiminished volume of new borrowing. Loans for purchasing or carrying securities other than U. S. Government issues increased more than 30 percent in the first quarter of the year in this Dis trict, and though still relatively small in amount, they are approximately double the year-ago figure. This can be attributed in considerable measure to the re laxation of margin requirements last spring. Collateral loans on U. S. Government securities remain virtually unchanged from the low amount to which they had been reduced by early 1949. Commercial Unlike many of the other loan cateLoans gories described earlier, the volume of commercial loans outstanding has been relatively stable throughout the quarter, as indicated in an accompanying chart. (All points plotted on weekly reporting member bank charts are Wednesday dates, weekly after 1948.) In the comparable period last year, in this District, extension of credit to busi ness was in the final stages of its postwar expansion, reaching a peak late in March. Although a nominal expansion in commercial indebtedness to banks took place during the first quarter of 1950, both in this District and in the national series of weekly reporting banks, the year-to-year margin was little changed in the Fourth District while it contracted noticeably for the country as a whole. This is primarily due to the fact that the downturn in business borrowing in 1949 did not occur in this District until the national decline had been under way for some months. And it may well be that the recent coal strike produce greater re- Monthly Business Review Page 2 LOANS OF R EPO R TIN G MEMBER BANKS (Fourth District) . . . commercial loans have remained at a fairly stable level over the past nine months, while real estate, and “all other” loans reached new peaks dining the first quar ter of 1950. percussions on business borrowing in this District than elsewhere. In point of fact, there was a decline of $9 million during February in commercial, industrial and agricultural loans outstanding at reporting banks in this District. Nationally, of a decline of $84 mil lion in the same period, the greater part ($50 mil lion) occurred in New York City banks and may be attributed in considerable degree to seasonal factors. Percentagewise, the February shrinkage in this Dis trict was substantially greater than in the country as a whole, excluding New York City. The small extent of the net change in bank-held debt of businesses, both in this District and in the rest of the country, points to a relatively stable level of inventories somewhat below the volume of accumu lated stocks last year, and to a continued high volume of aggregate retail sales. Unless a sharp reduction occurs in consumers’ expenditures or business expecta tions, and provided there is no rapid resumption of price inflation, it seems reasonable to assume that movements in commercial indebtedness to banks will reflect both seasonal movements and business expan sion to a greater extent than in the recent past, rather than the vagaries of inventory changes with their attendant influences on the demand for working capi tal. On the whole, the trends established by the various categories of loans at weekly reporting banks in the Fourth District during the first quarter have compared favorably with movements in the same period a year ago. This factor, together with other aspects of banking developments and in conjunction with considerations of a broader general nature, leads to the inference that whatever cyclical pressures exist are, on balance, inflationary. Investment Continuing the policy of full investment, Policies the large reserve city banks have held idle balances of excess reserves down to April 1, 1950 the level which appears to have been established as a working minimum over the past year or more. During the year to date, excess reserves at reserve city banks have averaged approximately 2.2 percent of requirements. At country banks, there has been a tendency to maintain a higher volume of excess re serves since the step-down in percentage requirements last summer. For these banks, excess reserves have averaged around 18 percent of requirements during the early months of 1950 as compared with 12J/2 percent during the similar period last year. Total investments at weekly reporting banks in this District have registered little net change since the beginning of the year, although at reporting banks in leading cities throughout the country a reduction of almost $500 million was apparent during January and February. The decline was wholly in U. S. Government securities, chiefly Treasury bills and certificates of indebtedness, while state, municipal and corporate securities totaling almost $300 million were added to portfolios. In this District, holdings of Treasury bills have increased somewhat from the low figure of late December. A decrease of more than $100 million in holdings of certificates of indebtedness has been largely offset by an expansion of nearly the same amount in Treasury notes to the highest point since the summer of 1946, when liquidation of these securities by the Treasury was in process. Much of the change in certificate and note hold ings reflects the February and March refundings of INVESTM ENTS OF R EPO R TIN G MEMBER BANKS (Fourth District) M IL L IO N S OF D O LLAR S M IL L IO N S OF D O L L A R S . . . mainly as a result of refunding operations, holdings of Treasury bonds were reduced substantially below the high levels of late 1949, and the portfolio of bills, certifi cates, and notes was augmented to the largest amount in more than three years. one-year, 1*4 percent certificates with 1% percent notes of 20-month and 16-month terms respectively. In accord with orthodox monetary theory, the Treas ury has adopted a more flexible policy with regard to both the rate and term of its financing operations. The V/2 percent 5-year note offered in exchange for April 1, 1950 Monthly Business Review the 2 percent bonds called for redemption on March 15 is the longest-term bank-eligible security offered by the Treasury since the Victory Loan Drive of October 1945. Refunding operations since December have taken advantage of generally favorable market condi tions to reduce the amount of floating debt, and the issuance of a 5-year note may represent the start of a movement to relieve the dearth of Governments in the 5 to 10-year maturity range. The rates established on the recent exchange offerings are somewhat higher than those obtaining during the second half of 1949, when anti-deflationary measures were in vogue. A moderate increase in the yield on Treasury bills and certificates of indebtedness also developed during the first quarter of 1950. A downward drift in the prices of taxable U. S. Government bonds was stimu lated by open-market sales by the Federal Reserve System of $500 million (through March 15) of Treasury bonds, chiefly bank-restricted issues. Re stricted bonds evidenced the most noticeable decline in price. For example, the yield on the 2*/25s due 1963-68 rose from 2.09 percent in the first week of January to 2.18 percent in the second week of March, and on the longest restricted issue increased from 2.24 percent to 2.34 percent in the same period. Moderate additions were made to the bond port folios of reporting banks in January and February, both in this District and nationally. Deposit Trends After recording an all-time high in December, adjusted d e m a n d deposits at the weekly reporting banks in this District de clined slightly during the early months of this year. The reduction in this component of the money sup ply, reflecting in part Federal tax payments, has been noticeably less than seasonal, and in March these de posits were approximately 5 percent greater than a year ago. Debits to deposit accounts (other than interbank), at reporting banks in 31 Fourth District cities, have more nearly approached the correspond ing year-ago figures than at any time since June of 1949, and the rate of turnover of checking account balances at the weekly reporting banks has evidenced no further decline, if it has not manifested an out right acceleration. A recent reversal of the downward trend pursued by time deposits at monthly reporting banks during the greater part of last year lifted these balances to a new peak level in February. To some extent, this increase in money savings owned primarily by indi viduals may reflect a withholding of consumption expenditures by recipients of the veterans5 insurance dividend. Although the increase in time deposits at the large weekly reporting banks has been smaller than in the first quarter of 1949, the regularity of the expansion in contrast to its sporadic nature last year, tends to substantiate the view that individuals, rather than corporations and public authorities are Pa g e 3 DEPOSITS OF R EPO R TIN G MEMBER BANKS (Fourth District) . . . adjusted demand deposits, although slightly below the all-time high registered last December, showed little net change during the first quarter of 1950. Tim e deposits in March were still slightly below the year-ago level. the source of these increments. A similar moderate increase in time deposits has been apparent in nearly all Federal Reserve Districts. 1950 Survey of Deposit Ownership A moderate expansion in the cash balances of individuals, partnerships, and corporations, lifted the total of these accounts at the banks cooperat ing in the January survey of demand deposit owner ship to the highest level recorded since the end of the war. The expansion was concentrated in the lar ger city banks in the District, where an increase of 2 / 2 percent was registered since January 1949. At the smaller banks, with deposits of $1-10 million, virtually no change was evident. While the over-all expansion was particularly slight in relation to the large gains of 1946 and 1947, it bore witness to a resumption of the growth in the active part of the money supply in private hands, following the 1948 period of stability. Accounts primarily of an indus trial character bulked large in the aggregate expansion during 1949. At both groups of banks, deposits of manufacturing and mining concerns in creased approximately 3 percent, probably reflecting the appreciable inventory liquidation which occurred during last year. In addition, the large volume of Government spending maintained by the incurring of a deficit in the latter part of the year could be expected to exert a particularly potent influence on primary and secondary producers. The need for larger cash balances by firms adopting or extending pension plans, and by the increased wage bill of the rail-utilities group is a further factor in the persistence of the postwar expansion. The fact that these ac Manufacturing, Mining and Public Utilities April 1, 1950 Monthly Business Review Page 4 POSTW AR CHANGES IN OW NERSHIP OF DEMAND DEPOSITS (Fourth District) 67 S M A LLE R B A N K S W ITH D E M A N D DEPO SITS OF $1 T O $10 M IL L IO N mmm mmmmTRADE / '. 'i r . 'i i 'i z ’.’ MINING. & ‘-MFG., ‘PUB UTILITIES ‘•'JNCLtASSIFIED) t . . . accounts of m ining and manufacturing firms in creased further during 1949, but accounts under $10,000 declined for the second successive year, while trade ac counts and large personal accounts showed no gain since the previous survey. . . . the volume of over-$3,000 personal accounts at the smaller banks has been unchanged for two years, but cash balances of manufacturing as well as wholesale and retail concerns increased to new postwar highs during 1949. counts were not enlarged by a greater amount may be attributed to a variety of factors such as repayment of bank loans and a somewhat higher ratio of dis tributed earnings. Further, demand for working capi tal per se would be lessened to some extent by the improved liquidity position resulting from inventory and debt liquidation, and corporate investment in the popular tax-savings notes partially replaced invest ments in accumulated stocks. Deposits of public utilities, transportation, and com munications companies declined slightly from the relatively low levels recorded in January 1949, and at all the sampled banks with deposits of $1 million and more, were only 11 percent larger than in Janu ary 1946. exceptionally large Christmas sales volume might conceivably have left many firms with cash assets temporarily above the normal amount demanded for operating purposes. Also, it is improbable that the continued high level of consumer purchases has per mitted any substantial lowering of the cash require ments for current operations. Trade Accounts For the first time since the war, accounts of retailers, wholesalers, and commodity dealers showed only a slight increase in the aggregate. In fact, the largest banks (those with deposits over $100 million) had a smaller volume of mercantile balances than on the previous survey date. Perhaps the most important factor in halting the rapid postwar expansion of the cash balances of trading enterprises was the decline in wholesale prices during 1949. To some extent, more rigid control of inventories and accounts may have developed, follow ing the development of a certain degree of uncer tainty as to the future business outlook. In addition, the continued expansion of consumer credit, and particularly the easing of terms on instalment pur chases may have resulted in accounts and notes receivable constituting a higher proportion of current assets than was the case in previous years. On the other hand, the business dip of 1949 may well have stimulated a demand for further liquidity by organi zations of all types and sizes engaged in trade. The Stability of Personal Accounts No change was apparent in the volume of large personal de posits at either large or small banks. At the smaller size group of banks, personal ac counts, as indicated in an accompanying chart, have maintained a stable level for two years, following a rapid expansion in the early postwar period. At the larger banks only a slight growth was recorded in 1948. The stability of these accounts owned prima rily by professional people and other individuals of means, conceals a decline of farmers’ deposits which are included in this classification. Separate data for farmers’ accounts of $3,000 and over is available for the group of smaller banks, and this indicates a drop of 10 percent in amount since the previous survey. This can probably be associated with the reduced farm income during 1949, while farm purchases of consumer durables, equipment, and expenditures for home improvement continued at a high level. Other Accounts Both p e r c e n t a g e w i s e and in dollar amount, the most striking increase oc curred in the “financial” accounts, which registered an 11 percent rise at all the reporting banks since the previous survey. This group includes deposits of insurance companies, trust funds, and a broad class of credit, financial, and real estate com panies, building and loan associations and other mis(C O N T 1N U E D O N P A G E 10) Monthly Business Review April 1, 1950 Page 5 The Value of Local Business Statistics S OME of the most interesting business statistics that come to light are those that are home-grown —business statistics that are gathered entirely under local sponsorship and designed only for local con sumption. While one-city data on automobile sales, building permits, and electric power output are in no sense a substitute f o r nationwide measurements, local statistics have a keener flavor of reality than do the seven-digit (or more) figures for the country as a whole. And local data portray the impact of exter nal economic forces upon business conditions within a single county or city. No two communities are affected precisely at the same time, nor to the same degree, by fluctuations in general business activity. Some industrial areas may be in the van of the movement while in others the response is delayed. In some cities the local counter part of any contemporary boom or recession will be comparatively mild, whereas in others it will be much more intense than national figures would in dicate. To be most useful for analyzing general conditions, local data should cover a fairly wide variety of busi nesses, should be reasonably up to date and accurate, and should be presented at frequent and regular in tervals. The assembling of such statistical facts re quires the conscientious service of an impartial agency which will function for the welfare of the whole community. Another requisite of an organization that undertakes to provide community statistics is that it occupy a reasonably permanent and responsible posi tion in the community. Cooperation from reporting firms will be forthcoming only if it is known that individual reports will be kept strictly confidential. Facilities exist in a number of cities in the Fourth District for the tabulation and publication of business data on the community level. In most instances the spadework is done by the local chamber of commerce, or by an educational institution. The nature and de gree of coverage vary widely from city to city, de pending somewhat upon availability, custom, local interest, and financial support. The remainder of this article describes the preval ence of such grass-roots data, the variations in content, some of the circumstances that must be considered in evaluating specific series, and a dis cussion of the desirability of including interpretive comment with the routine statistical tables. This particular strain of business information is still in its formative stages of development in most cities and trading areas, and this survey has been compiled especially in the hope that it will not only promote more fruitful use of existing information but also that it might arouse interest in other communities where statistics on local business are not available at present. Survey of Fourth District Local Data The accompanying table lists the communities in the Fourth District where city-wide statistics are as sembled and published, and indi cates the sort of data provided in each case. In the majority of communities, statistical summaries are published at monthly intervals. The statistic which occurs most frequently and is perhaps of broadest general interest as a business indicator is the volume of employment. Most organi zations publishing current local employment informa tion have found it necessary to obtain the figures from firsthand sources, that is, directly from employers, either by telephone or mail. The most common pro cedure is to obtain periodic reports from a representa tive sample of local firms. The reports are then combined and the total used as an indicator of changes in employment, or the sample may be “blown up” as an estimate of the actual numerical volume of employment. Adequate and proportionate coverage of the major kinds and sizes of business enterprises in the community is of prime importance and the cooperation of the reporting firms is essential to ensure accurate data, comparable from month to month and year to year. Information on payroll totals or total hours worked, while sometimes not so readily obtain able, is a more complete index of changes in the employment situation because it reflects the trend of short-week or part time employment, which is a spe cial type of unemployment usually not discernible in conventional employment figures. It is a matter of interest that few Ohio local reports include claims for unemployment compensation. This information is readily available for almost every county in Ohio at the resident office of the Bureau of Unemployment Compensation. While unemploy ment claims relate only to unemployment in industries covered by the Ohio law and therefore do not reflect unemployment in noncovered industries such as agri culture, the claims figure can be very illuminating with respect to over-all conditions and helpful in in terpreting employment trends. The second most prevalent business statistic is the volume of building permits, usually stated as the value of permits granted by municipal authorities. The erection of any type of building creates work and is a stimulus to sales of building materials. The information has added significance, however, if it is subdivided into residential and nonresidential per mits. The rate of new residential construction often heralds the future demand for home furnishings and other continuous needs of family units. Nonresidential Pa g e 6 April 1, 1950 Monthly Business Review AVAILABILITY < Published Ur ITEMIZED CONTENT Employ ment Total occurences of each item 25 Bank Build Post Electric ing Debits, Office Power Permits Clearings Receipts Output 23 22 X X X X X X 20 Auto Sales — Sales Carload- Natural Retail Tax ings Gas Con Sales Receipts sumption 19 16 15 14 13 X X 13 ONE-CITY SUMMARIES Ohio (line no.) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Akron Ashland Barberton Canton Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Dayton Dover East Liverpool Hamilton Lima Marion Massillon Newark Niles Portsmouth Sidney Springfield Toledo Troy Warren X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Pennsylvania 23 24 25 Donora Latrobe Pittsburgh X X X X X X MULTIPLE-CITY SUMMARIES 26 27 28 Pennsylvania Business Survey Ohio State Bulletin of Business Research West Virginia Business Index X X X X X X X Source: See fo o tn o te a t en d of article. X X X X X p April 1, 1950 Pa g e 7 Monthly Business Review JESS STATISTICS Sponsorship 1- s 1 Unem Relief ployment Cases Claims 7 7 Water Usage 7 Air Cost of Business Real Index Ship Living Estate ments Transfers Index 7 7 5 5 Street News Railway Business New Interpretive Railway paper Ad Express Failures Incor Comment Traffic vertising Shipm’ts porations 5 4 4 3 2 11 (line no.) X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 X 23 24 25 X 26 X 27 X X X X X x X X X X X X X x X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X x X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X --------------- 28 Pa g e 8 Monthly Business Review construction suggests commercial or industrial expan sion, or additions to the social and cultural advan tages of a community (recreational, educational, and religious structures). While all statistics call for care ful interpretation, two particular observations might be made in connection with construction reports. The first is that when confined to any local area, building data are apt to be confusingly erratic from week to week or even from month to month. This disadvan tage, however, can be overcome by smoothing the figures through the use of moving averages. The sec ond point is that sometimes building permits do not include activity in fast-growing suburbs. Unless the coverage is representative, the usefulness of the data is impaired. A third widely used yardstick takes the form of bank debits (or bank clearings) which provide a measure of the rate at which money is turning over. In using either series, seasonal spending and the num ber of business days in the month are factors that must be taken into consideration. Bank clearings (as distinguished from debits), obtained through the co operation of local clearing houses, are one of the oldest statistical series available on a local trading area basis and have the special value of long-term continuity. Almost as long established in some areas are bank debits which are a better measure than clearings in that they indicate not only the turnover in checking account balances, but also withdrawals from savings accounts. Bank debits are compiled for 31 reporting centers in the Fourth District by this bank and the tabulated results are made available to the public regularly each month. Many localities use these figures in their city summaries. Electric power output is a frequent element in a number of regional tabulations. Inasmuch as produc tion of electric power for industrial purposes bears a relation to the composite rate of industrial activity, it is of particular value when the industrial group is a heterogeneous mixture of plants of various sizes which are engaged in a variety of endeavors. Con sideration must be given to the seasonal rise and fall in consumption (and therefore production) of elec tricity for lighting purposes which roughly corre sponds inversely to the number of hours of natural daylight occurring at different times of the year. Many electric light and power companies are readily disposed to provide production figures. Sales of automobiles are another commonly ap pearing series which is helpful in estimating current consumer attitudes and inclinations. Accurate and up-to-the-minute information on local demand for this important consumer durable is a valuable aid to those engaged in other local businesses in evaluating current and prospective business trends in their own communities. The data are usually obtained through the cooperation of local county registration offices or, in some cases, from automobile dealers’ associations. April 1, 1950 Since used car sales are usually considerably greater in number than new car sales, inclusion of second hand cars produces a broader and therefore more reliable base. Nevertheless, it is desirable to preserve the distinction since new and used car sales do not necessarily follow the same course from week to week. Interrupted factory production and shipment of new cars, for example, may temporarily deplete local stocks and thus force a decline in sales which bears no relation to consumer demand. A further subdivision showing truck sales serves to reveal com mercial demand. interpretation There is, unfortunately, no such of Data thing as one single, perfectly reli able, business indicator. The re spective attempts which have been made to provide such a one-statistic measure by constructing indexes of general, over-all business activity out of such in gredients as have been d e s c r i b e d herein, have achieved their purpose with varying degrees of suc cess. While general indexes have the advantage of convenience and simplicity for ready reference, ad mittedly even the best are not fully satisfactory. The obvious recourse for offsetting, in part, the defectiveness inherent in any single series is to take refuge in a group of series. This practice can be carried to extremes, however, and when too many so-called indicators are presented, only confusion is likely to follow. Judicious selection of kinds of data on the basis of real significance should be the goal, rather than inclusion of any and all figures simply because they can be obtained with little difficulty. In using local data as well as state or national statistics, even with the best possible selection of series, due regard must be given to special conditions which arise from time to time. Some of these condi tions are recurrent and are related to the time of year, such as midwinter restrictions on many outdoor activities, harvest time, preparation for major holi days such as Christmas, and other seasonal variations peculiar to certain industries. Nationwide statistics are often either adjusted to allow for such variations or are presented with comment which will call atten tion to such influences. Unfortunately, in the case of local data, it too often rests entirely with the user to consider and make allowances for seasonal variations as well as unusual conditions such as the coming of a new industry to a town, or a local disaster such as a flood. With a little additional effort on the part of the publishing agency, the serviceability of local data could be greatly enhanced by the inclusion of a straightforward exposition of the net import of the statistical material. Valve of Securing, assembling, and publishTextual Account ing the data are only part of the function of providing a local busi ness statistical service, because a table consisting only April 1, 1950 of a variety of unrelated raw data does not automat ically impart understanding. The data require inter pretation and analysis. The impression to be gained must be of a dynamic flow of events rather than a still-life record of happenings now dead and impotent. Changes which are significant because of their magni tude, their primary direction, their timing, need to be sorted out from erratic fluctuations of no particular consequence and to accomplish this it is necessary to consider the continuous movement over a period of time. It takes more time and effort to maintain records, to compute changes and to keep up charts, than many businessmen are prepared to give. There are, in fact, several reasons for suggesting that the service be ren dered by the organization which gathers the data— even though some businessmen will be disposed to make independent analyses. (1) Those who gather the figures are in the best position to have intimate knowledge of the data, to be more acutely aware of weakness and strength in the various figures. Contact with the original sources often reveals additional qualifying or explanatory in formation not otherwise apparent. Moreover, the intention to make honest and explicit comments tends to develop awareness of gaps in coverage and alert ness to new sources of information which might other wise be overlooked. It might be added that this is particularly true in the average local project which does not usually warrant an extensive staff of persons each with highly specialized functions. (2) Since mental observation of changes in the various indicators comes almost automatically, though not with precision, in the process of collecting data, it seems logical to capitalize on the psychological mo mentum thus created and to compose a textual com mentary on such changes. Pa g e 9 Monthly Business Review (3) It is inefficient for each user to expend time and effort performing essentially the same analytical procedure when it could be done by the service organ ization for the general benefit of all. It is not neces sarily incumbent upon subscribers to accept the inter pretation as presented, but if that interpretation is adequately documented, it can be appraised and veri fied or revised with comparatively little effort. (4) There is a seemingly impenetrable psychologi cal barrier about cold figures lined up in tabular form that discourages the uninitiated from drawing any concrete conclusions, even tentatively. But it has been demonstrated that where such textual accounts, char acterized by simplicity and accuracy, are supplied regularly, the service evokes wide public interest and becomes a valuable aid to local enterprises and insti tutions. The next issue of the Review will contain a more detailed discussion of the preparation of such a report in one of the cities of this District. Sources: F o r th e m a jo rity of cities, d a ta a re av ailab le fro m th e local C h am b er of C om m erce. E xceptions are: P ittsb u rg h , P a., U n iversity of P itts b u rg h , B u re au of Business R e search L im a, O h io , L im a A ssociation of C om m erce Sidney, O hio, Sidney C ivic A ssociation T o led o , O hio, U n iv e rsity of T o led o , B u re au of B usiness R esearch C leveland, O hio, Some d a ta fro m C leveland C h am b er of C om m erce a n d th e re m a in d e r fro m F ed eral R eserve B ank of C leveland. P ub lish ers of m u ltip le -c ity sum m aries a re as follows: Ohio State B ulletin of Business Research, O hio State U niversity, T h e B u re au of Business R esearch Pennsylvania Business Survey, T h e P ennsylvania State College, T h e B u re au of B usiness R esearch West Virginia Business Index, m erce W est V irg in ia S tate C h am b er of C om Monthly Business Review Pa g e 10 RECENT BANKING TRENDS (C O N T IN U E D F R O M P A G E 4) COM POSITION OF OW NERSHIP OF DEMAND DEPOSITS OF INDIVIDUALS, PARTNERSHIPS AND CORPORATIONS (Fourth District) On Selected Dates ----- BANKS OVER $10 M IL L IO N WITH DEPOSITS O F ------$1 - 1 0 M IL L IO N UNCLASSIFIED ACCOUNTS UNCLASSIFIED PERSONAL i OTHER LARGE ACCOUNTS F IN AN C IAL OTHER LARGE . . . at the large banks only minor changes occurred in the composition of deposits by types of accounts in the past four years, whereas at the smaller banks the propor tion of the manufacturing group increased from 18 per cent to 22 percent of the aggregate, and the ratio of unclassified and trading-enterprise accounts declined. cellaneous organizations. Considerable expansion was apparent in almost all the major types of accounts in this group at large and smaller banks alike. To a considerable extent, this expansion reflects the grow ing popular demand for security, wider acceptance of the investment company as an outlet for savings, and the further extension of consumer credit. The large category o f “unclassified” accounts (under $10,000 at the large banks, and under $3,000 April 1, 1950 at the smaller banks) was the only major deposit classification to show a decline since January 1949 at all sampled banks combined. For both groups of banks, this was the second consecutive year of decline, but in contrast to the movement in 1948, the rate of contraction was more rapid at the large banks than at the smaller group. In the case of the larger banks, the shrinkage was accompanied by a reduction in the average size of unclassified deposits, although the number of accounts was virtually unchanged. In the case of the smaller banks, a slight increase in the number of unclassified accounts produced no signi ficant alteration in their average size. Although the sample of banks used to assess changes in average size of accounts is not strictly comparable with the sample used in discussing movements in the various types of account, it is entirely adequate to be inter preted with a high degree of accuracy in conjunction with the main sample. In spite of considerable differences in the rate of expansion of the various broad groups of classified accounts, their relative importance within the aggre gate has remained essentially unchanged during the past two years at the large banks. Manufacturing, mining and public utility accounts, together with trade accounts, again accounted for just over half of the total. Probably the most significant change in the com position of deposits is the drop in importance of smaller accounts, particularly those under $3,000 at banks with deposits of $1-10 million. While this may be due in some measure to a shift of balances from checking to savings accounts, it may also indicate a shrinkage in the cash position of small businesses and of rank-and-file consumers relative to large businesses and investors. POSTWAR CHANGES IN DEMAND DEPOSITS OF INDIVIDUALS, PARTNERSHIPS, AND CORPORATIONS 32 Large Banks With Demand Deposits Over $10 M illion 67 Smaller Banks With Demand Deposits of $1—10 M illion Relatives January ’46—100 Jan. Jan. Jan. Type of Deposit 31 31 31 1946 1948 1950 117 121 All Accounts of $10,000 or more . . . 100 132 Nonprofit Associations................. . 100 150 150 Other Nonfinancial....................... . 100 135 137 Insurance Companies................... . 100 185 132 Retail & Wholesale Trade.......... . 100 124 Other Financial............................. . 100 125 136 119 Personal Accounts......................... . 100 118 Manufacturing & M ining........... . 100 111 116 Public Utilities............................... . 100 129 109 Trust Funds of Banks................... . 100 95 86 All Accounts Under $10,000.......... . 100 116 113 TOTAL............................................... . 100 117 120 Relatives January ’46—100 Jan. Jan. Jan. Type of Deposit 31 31 31 1946 1948 1950 All Accounts of $3,000 or more . . . . 100 118 125 Insurance Companies................. . . 100 140 177 Other Nonfinancial..................... . . 100 118 127 Public Utilities............................. . . 100 110 130 Manufacturing & M ining......... .. 100 130 139 Nonprofit Associations............... . . 100 128 133 124 124 Personal Accounts....................... . . 100 97 Trust Funds of Banks................. . . 100 120 107 121 Other Financial........................... . . 100 107 103 Retail & Wholesale T rade........ . . 100 111 103 All Accounts Under $3,000........... . . 100 118 T O TA L............................................. . . 100 116 April 1, 1950 P a g e 11 Monthly Business Review F IN A N C IA L AND O THER B U SIN ESS S T A TIS TIC S Time Deposits at 58 Banks in 12 Fourth District Cities (Compiled M arch 3, and released for publication M arch 4 ) C ity and N um ber of Banks Average W eekly Change During: F eb. Jan. Feb. 1950 1950 1949 Tim e Deposits Feb. 22,1950 C leveland (4)........... $ 903,722,000 475,825,000 P ittsburgh (11)........ 179,454,000 Cincinnati (8)........... Akron (3).................. 103,249,000 Toledo (4)................. Columbus (3)........... Youngstown (3)....... D ayton (3)............... 105,335,000 84,556,000 62,408,000 46,465,000 Canton (5)................ E rie (4)..................... Wheeling (5)............. Lexington (5)............ 41,611,000 39,444,000 26,842,000 10,690,000 TO TA L—12 Cities $2,079,601,000 Bank Debits*— February 1950 in 31 Fourth District Cities 299,000 + 2,846,000 110,000 28,000 - $ ++ ++ + + ++ — — 196,000 103,000 20,000 305,000 24,000 75,000 32,000 13,000 +$3 ,387,000 860,000 +$ ++ 1,747,000 113,000 + 55,000 + 314,000 66,000 +++ 40,000 76,000 _ 18,000 88,000 + 134,000 + 25,000 ++ + ++ + — +++ + +$3 ,242,000 +$4 ,323,000 +$3 ,596,000 349,000 113,000 10,000 — 59,000 114,000 8,000 18,000 13,000 52,000 21,000 6,000 During th e four weeks ended February 22, tim e deposits in 12 Fourth D istrict cities increased a t th e ra te of $3,387,000 per week. This was th e th ird consecutive m onth of expansion and lifted aggregate tim e deposits to a new all-tim e high of nearly $2,080,000,000. Thus th e shrinkage th a t occurred last year between M arch and December has been more th a n offset b y th e gains of th e past th ree m onths. In seven of th e 12 cities, th e February expansion was larger th an in th e sam e m onth of 1949. The year-to-year comparison was m ost noticeable in Dayton, P itts burgh, and Toledo. In P ittsburgh and Toledo, as well as in Akron and Columbus, tim e deposits were th e highest on record, on th e reporting d ate. T he February increase in Canton was th e first in nearly a year. In th e three cities reporting a reduction in February, th e declines were com paratively nominal. Adjusted Weekly Index of Department Store Sales* Fourth D istrict (Weeks ending on dates shown. 1935-39 average*=100) 1949 1950 1949 1950 Jan. 8 15 22 29. , ..326 ..317 . .324 ..298 Jan. 7 .. ..273 14. . 307 21 .. ..305 28.. ..302 Feb. 5 12 19 26 ..301 ..303 ..290 ..274 Feb. 4 .. ..301 11.. ..290 18.. ..273 250 25.. M ar. 5 12 19 26 ..270 ..282 ..268 ..275 M ar. 4 .. 255 11.. ..276 18.. ..262 25.. Sept. 3 ........276 10........282 17........279 24........268 ..304 2 9, . ..306 16 ..270 23 ..278 30 ..299 Apr. 1 .. 8 .. 15.. 2 2 .. 2 9 .. O ct. M ay 7 14 21 28 ...320 ..277 ..301 ..280 M ay 6 .. 13.. 20.. 27.. N ov.- 5 ........259 12........241 19........256 26........276 N ov. 4 11 18 25 June 4 11 18 25 ...277 ..283 ..293 ..299 June 3 .. 10.. 17.. 24.. Dec. Dec. Apr. Ju ly 2 ........285 9 ........283 16........283 23........276 30........272 Aug. 6 ........265 13........248 20........267 27........262 1........288 8 ........249 15........251 22........244 29........263 3 ........286 10........293 17........304 24........257 31........289 Ju ly 1 8 15 22 29 Aug. 5 12 19 26 Sept. 2 9 16 23 30 Oct. 7 14 21 28 2 9 16 23 30 * Adjusted for seasonal variation and number of trading days. Based on sample of weekly reporting stores which differs slightly from sample reporting m onthly. (In thousands of dollars) (Compiled M arch 13, and released for publication M arch 14) No. of Reporting Banks Feb. 1950 191 A LL 31 C E N T E R S ..........$6,215,200 10 L A R G E S T C E N T E R S : 5 A kron............................ Ohio $ 203,089 5 C anton...........................Ohio 95,729 16 Cincinnati..................... Ohio 819,900 10 Cleveland..................... Ohio 1,541,302 7 Colum bus..................... Ohio 494,482 4 D ayton..........................Ohio 204,992 6 Toledo...........................Ohio 303,545 4 Youngstown................. Ohio 137,349 76,718 6 E rie ............................ Penna. 51 P ittsb u rg h .................Penna. 1,769,231 113 9 6 3 3 2 5 4 2 3 3 4 2 3 3 1 2 4 3 4 5 6 T O T A L .............................. $5,646,337 21 O T H E R C E N T E R S : Covington-Newport___K y. $ 35,430 Lexington........................ K y. 68,096 E ly ria .............................Ohio 16,726 H am ilton...................... Ohio 34,217 L im a...............................Ohio 36,375 14,460 Lorain............................Ohio M ansfield...................... Ohio 37,568 M iddletow n..................Ohio 33,617 P o rtsm o u th ..................Ohio 17,682 Springfield.................... Ohio 40,808 Steubenville................. Ohio 19,561 W arren...........................Ohio 32,981 Zanesville..................... Ohio 22,704 B utler.........................Penna. 25,165 Franklin.....................Penna. 5,631 G reensburg............... Penna. 16,795 K ittanning.................Penna. 7,449 10,544 M eadville.................. Penna. Oil C ity .....................Penna. 14,573 Sharon........................Penna. 23,728 W heeling................... W . Va. 54,753 % Change from Y ear Ago 3 M onths E nded Feb. 1950 % Change from Y ear Ago — 0.6% $20,820,029 — 4.7% + 3.2% — 5.5 + 4.2 + 0.1 + 4.2 + 0.8 — 0.6 + 4.5 + 1.7 — 3.8 $ — 0.9% —13.7 — 1.5 — 4.9 + 1.3 —0— — 4.8 — 2.8 — 4.8 — 7.0 — 0.2% $18,861,107 — 4.4% — 4.0% —24.5 — 2.5 + 4.5 — 4.2 —12.5 — 1.2 +15.5 — 0.6 + 3.8 — 2.3 — 6.1 — 1.1 — 9.4 —16.3 — 8.4 —16.2 — 3.2 —14.1 — 6.9 + 8.2 $ — 0.9% —24.0 — 6.5 + 2.3 — 3.4 —13.5 — 1.2 +10.4 — 8.1 — 0.9 — 7.2 — 9.1 — 3.0 —10.7 —19.1 —10.4 —11.0 —10.9 —10.7 — 9.8 + 5.2 677,772 306,960 2,644,421 5,340,316 1,615,153 691,961 1,026,620 449,258 250,263 5,858,383 118,147 276,354 56,856 115,924 123,035 49,350 124,072 109,999 58,224 133,744 65,197 108,021 74,722 84,039 18,551 56,826 27,736 34,024 50,937 78,125 195,039 78 T O T A L .............................. $ 568,863 — 5.1% $ 1,958,922 — 7.2% * Debits to all deposit accounts except interbank balances. During th e m onth of February, debits to deposit accounts (except interbank) in 31 Fourth D istrict cities were only 0.6 percent below th e volume recorded in February 1949. For th e larger cities combined, th e margin was only a nominal 0.2 percent, th e sm allest year-to-year shrinkage since la st June. The w idest gaps exist among th e smaller reporting centers, in several of w hich debits are running m ore th an 10 per cent behind la st y ear’s figure. In both large and sm all centers, th e ra te of turnover is slower th an a t th is tim e in 1949. In th e large cities, deposits have increased roughly 3 percent w ithin th e past tw elve m onths, while d ebits in February were essentially unchanged from a year ago. Sim ilarly, th e som ew hat reduced volume of debits reported from th e smaller localities belies th e fact th a t to ta l deposit balances in those cities are as large as a year ago. T E N LARGEST C EN TERS Among th e largest cities, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Youngstown reported yearto-year gains of over 4 percent, while in Canton, Pittsburgh and Toledo, d eb it vol ume was still short of la st y ear’s to tal. TW ENTY-ONE SMALLER C EN TERS D ebits in Middletown continued to hold a sizable margin over la st year. H am il ton, Springfield, and Wheeling likewise reported debit to tals in excess of th e 1949 figure. Indexes of Department Store Sales and Stocks D aily Average for 1935-1939=100 A djusted for W ithout Seasonal Variation Seasonal A djustm ent Feb. Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Feb. 1950 1950 1949 1950 1950 1949 SALES: Akron (6)............................. Canton (5)............................ Cincinnati (8)...................... Cleveland (11).................... Columbus (6)...................... Erie (4)................................. Pittsburgh (8)..................... Springfield (3)..................... Toledo (6)............................ Wheeling (6)........................ Youngstown (3).................. D istrict (96)........................ STOCKS* D istrict'................................ 274 325 285 241 301 278 259 268 243 226 301 271 286 328 316 283 336 314 261 267 268 235 305 290 296 342 297 260 324 317 264 276 273 245 325 284 241 237 225 193 241 223 215 217 197 176 250 217 212 243 247 218 255 242 195 193 191 157 229 215 260 249 235 208 259 254 220 224 221 191 270 227 275 224 275 255 856 255 B ack figures for year 1949 are shown in th e February issue. For year 1946-48. see August 1949 issue, page 7. TOLEDO PA. AKRON • CANTON • DAYTON • COLUMBUS LEXINGTON I* * PITTSBURGH HEELING W. VA. .£ CINCINNATI ' - W • YOUNGSTOW l , Fourth Federal eserveDistrict ■ MAIN OFFICE ★ BRANCH OFFICES
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