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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions in the F ou rth F ederal Reserve D istrict Federal Reserve Bank o f C leveland Cleveland, Ohio, April 1, 1929 ^$8 ^ of business in the Fourth District in March aUov* *eaS^ equa^ if not greater than February, after ^ for seasonal differences. Employment generally aW a Point and operations in most industries were level of a year ago. Steel mills in mid-March evGlf J*av*ng some difficulty in keeping up with orders, l&er . 2k their output was at practical capacity in nu^stances. The marked recovery in the rail equip^ttstry continued, with orders for locomotives and j c^rs much larger than for months. Tire output **£©» and motor accessory concerns were very busy, sales of new passenger cars were about 50 per 4 ljtJarger t^lan a year ago. Coal prices in March were buvi ^rmer! domestic demand was good and industrial We continued steady. Orders for electrical supplies gi ^eavy, being well above last year at this time. Plate 0 Manufacturers have been receiving large automotive de r*8’ ^aint and varnish manufacturers are confident, lei*’ stocks are low, and spring business is developing J ^ to r ily . tiTaVOrable sPots are few» the most important being the building industry. This trade has continued to run ^ last year, building permits in February showing a ®c*ease of 16 per cent. Business in March was slow in j. 6 ®h°e trade; wholesale trade was less than last year ^ February, and retail clothing sales were irregular as spared with last year. AN INDEX OF F O U R TH 120 D IS TR IC T BUSINESS INDEX 120 110 too 110 s\Ji -y w --\r 90 1925 1926 fit* A / \y 1927 1926 100 90 1929 FINANCIAL month ending with March 23 has been charactert 6 kjr a further rise in money rates, a slight decline in ^Serve bank credit, an increase in total loans and investof member banks in leading cities, and a large inea®e in loans to brokers. No. 4 Gold Movements. Gold imports in February amounted to $2 6 ,9 1 3 ,0 0 0 , including a shipment of $22,000,000 from England. Exports were only $1,425,000, the net gain to our gold stock (including changes in earmarked gold) be ing $26,426,000. In the first three weeks of March, im ports at the port of New York amounted to $10,460,000, mostly from Germany, while exports were $200,000. Money Rates. Money rates in New York are higher than a month ago. On March 23, prime commer cial paper was quoted at 5 %-6 per cent as compared with 5%-5% per cent a month earlier. During the same period, 90-day bankers' acceptances (asked) advanced from 5% to 5% per cent, and time money on the stock exchange rose from 7% per cent to 8 per cent flat, the highest in years. Call money between March 1 and March 23 ranged between 7 and 10 per cent (renewal rate), averaging 8.25 per cent as against 7.09 in February, 7.35 in January, and 4.50 in March of 1928. Customers' rates in the Fourth District are slightly firmer than a month ago. In Cleveland, collateral loans are mostly at 6 per cent flat, as compared with 5%-6 per cent last month. Reserve Bank Credit- Total credit extended by the Re serve System on March 20 amounted to $1,372,000,000, a drop of $31,000,000 from a month previous. An increase of $77,000,000 in discounts brought this item up to $942,000,000, but acceptances fell from $356,000,000 to $237,000,000. Government securities increased slightly, stand ing at $185,000,000 on March 20. Discounts are practically double what they were a year ago, but both acceptances and Government securities are materially lower. Total bills and securities are $176,304,000 larger than last year. In the Cleveland reserve bank, discounts dropped from 81 million dollars on February 20 to 77 millions on March 20; acceptances fell from 34 to 25 millions, and Govern ment security holdings from 30 to 29 millions. Total credit extended on March 20 was $131,000,000, a decline of $15,000,000 for the month and of $3,000,000 for the year. Member Bank Credit. Collateral loans made by all re porting member banks stood at $7,642,000,000 on March 20 as compared with $7,448,000,000 a month earlier. For the same dates, “all other” loans were $8,910,000,000 as com pared with $8,740,000,000; investments, $6,028,000,000 2 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW and $5,991,000,000; demand deposits, $13,281,000,000 and $13,259,000,000; and time deposits, $6,805,000,000 and $6,867,000,000. Brokers' loans made by or through New York report ing member banks advanced rapidly to a new high dur ing the month. The previous high was $5,669,000,000, reached on February 6, from which there was a reaction to $5,477,000,000 on the 20th. In the next four weeks these loans increased 6 per cent to $5,792,582,000 on March 20. Most of this gain occurred in the item “for the account of others”, although loans made direct by the New York banks also increased. In the Fourth District, loans on securities rose from 696 millions on February 20 to 714 millions on March 20, “all other” loans increased from 804 to 816 millions, while in vestments were off slightly, aggregating 691 millions on the later date. No great changes took place in demand and time deposits, the former standing at 1027 millions on March 20 and the latter at 977 millions. Security Prices. Stock prices have been very irregular during the month, with a weakening tendency toward the close. The Dow-Jones industrial average made a new high of 322.06 on February 5, declined to 295.85 on the 16th, advanced to a second top of 321.18 on March 1, fell to 305.20 on the 6th, and again rose to a third peak of 320 on the 16th. Since then another reaction has taken place, the average standing at 303.22 on March 27. Bond prices in general have been weak. FOURTH DISTRICT EARNINGS The chart below presents the net earnings by quarters, 1925-1928, of 25 leading industrial corporations in the Fourth District. The group includes only concerns which operate wholly or largely in this District, so that it may be considered fairly representative of business in the Dis trict. Numerous large corporations doing considerable business in this area, but possessing plants in other parts of the country as well, have been excluded. It will be noted that the fourth quarter of 1928 marked a new peak for quarterly earnings during the four-year period, the figure being $19,418,000. This is particularly noteworthy in view of the fact that fourth quarter earn* ings in the past have ordinarily declined somewhat from the level of the second and third quarters. The last qnar* ter of 1928, therefore, was the most prosperous period in the Fourth District throughout the four years. The figures shown on the chart are as follows (in thousands of dollars): 1928 1927 1926 1926 First quarter ............... $12,392 $13,698 $16,128 $13,142 Second quarter ............ 18,537 15,667 18,568 16,666 Third quarter ............. 18,264 11,682 16,729 14,464 Fourth quarter ............. 19,418 10,329 13,877 15,319 Year .............................. 68,611 51,376 65,302 59,591 Debits, Savings, Failures. Debits to individual account of 13 large cities in the Fourth District were $2,740,000,000 in February, as compared with $3,028,000,000 in Jan uary and $2,375,000,000 a year ago. Savings deposits of 66 banks in this District totaled $1,057,141,289 on March 1, a gain of 0.3 per cent for the month and of 3.7 per cent for the year. Commercial failures in the Fourth District numbered 166 in February, as compared with 196 in January and 186 a year ago. Liabilities were $2,891,340 in February, $4,636,425 in January, and $4,727,509 in February of 1928. In the United States there were 1965 failures in February, 2535 in January, and 2176 a year ago. MANUFACTURING, MINING Debits to Individual Accounts A k r o n ....................... B utler, P a ............... C a n to n ..................... C in c in n a ti............... C le v e la n d ................ C o lu m b u s............... C onnellsville, P a . . D a y t o n .................... Erie, P a ................... Franklin, P a .......... G reensburg, P a . .. H om estead , P a . . . L exin gton , K y . . . . L im a ......................... L o r a in ...................... M id d le t o w n ........... Oil C ity, P a ........... P ittsbu rgh , P a ___ S p rin gfield.............. S teu b en v ille ........... T o l e d o ...................... W a r r e n ..................... W h eelin g, W . V a .. Y o u n g s to w n .......... Z a n esv ille......... .. Total................ (In thousands o f dollars) 5 weeks 1929 to % ending change date (D e c. M ar. 20, from 2 6-M ar. 1929 1928 20) 140,822 + 2 2 .6 362,600 13,349 + 1 8 .1 35,907 62,895 + 1 8 .1 170,998 525,740 + 1 0 .9 1,458,801 1,097,764 + 2 6 .5 2,864,935 218,158 + 1 5 .1 588,446 4,371 — 6 .6 11,242 137,459 + 2 5 .4 343,687 i4 4 ,5 2 4 + 1 8 .4 114,225 6,482 + 1 7 .0 16,166 22,691 + 5 .0 60,400 5,576 + 1 8 .8 14,004 35,082 + 3 0 .8 112,704 18,553 + 7 .7 53,428 + 1 1 .2 6,744 17,433 15,616 + 9 .6 38,891 19,744 + 1 7 .9 53,039 + 2 6 .1 1,282,354 3,354,591 29,932 + 2 3 .3 81,463 13,323 — 3 .3 35,791 — 9 .9 265,144 760,890 + 1 7 .6 16,565 43,720 + 1 7 .6 62,470 164,253 + 2 6 .5 90,407 245,724 + 1 1 .1 14,674 39,701 4.150,439 + 1 9 .4 11,043.039 1928 to date (D e c. 2 8-M ar. 21) 310,590 *31,153 144,140 1,394,450 2,522,499 510,565 11,806 291,032 99,413 15,570 62,487 11,865 92,902 46,961 16,634 39,585 44,749 2,856,401 66,518 33,564 796,377 39,429 143,213 203,714 37,073 9 ,822.690 Iron and Steel change from 1928 + 1 6 .7 + 1 5 .3 + 1 8 .6 + 4 .6 + 1 3 .6 + 1 5 .3 — 4 .8 + 1 8 .1 + 1 4 .9 + 3 .8 — 3 .3 + 1 8 .0 + 2 1 .3 + 1 3 .8 + 4 .8 — 1.8 + 1 8 .5 + 1 7 .4 + 2 2 .5 + 6.6 — 4 .5 + 1 0 .9 + 1 4 .7 +20.6 + 7 .1 + 1 2 .4 Though steel production in February surpassed all previous efforts when it attained a daily rate of 180,198 gross tons, additional capacity was put on in the first half of March. Specifications which have impelled steelmaking to these record heights have been predicated, apparently, upon immediate requirements, principally for the manu facture of automobiles, freight cars, rails, farm imple ments and line pipe. Small metalworking plants have rounded out tonnage demand. A concomitant of record steel production is a shortage of semifinished steel. Virtually for the first time since the war, there is talk of premiums for spot material. Some finishing capacity has been idle on account of a lack o f billets and sheet bars. Mahoning valley mills in partic ular have been held back on this account. Chicago, as usual at the season, is carried along by railroad require ments, but Pittsburgh and northern Ohio have benefited chiefly from record automobile steel demand. Sheets, bars and strip are the most wanted classifications. On THE MONTHLY BUSINESS BEVIEW high finishes of sheets mill capacity is engaged into June. With deliveries on many sizes of bars and grades of sheets and strip four to eight weeks deferred, secondquarter contracting has been subordinated. As a result, advances on bars, plates, shapes, sheets and strip—the latter taking the form of a revision of extras—have not been tested. In mid-March, pig iron prices in the Ma honing and Shenango valleys tended to strengthen. Iron and steel scrap prices were subsiding slowly, forecasting the usual spring easiness in consumption. February’s steel ingot rate of 180,198 tons readily ex ceeded the 166,274 tons of January and the 161,812 tons of February, 1928. The previous all-time record daily rate was 172,144 tons, in October, 1928. Pig iron production in February, at a daily rate of 114,833 tons, was a record for that month and closely approached the all-time pig iron record of 115,207 tons, in March, 1925. Two hundred and eight blast furnaces, six more than the month previous, were active at the close of February. Further price advances for iron and steel are shown by the Iron Trade Review composite of fourteen leading iron and steel products. In February this index averaged (36.28, compared with $36.24 in January, and $35.62 last February. In the first two weeks of March this index was stationary at $36.37. 3 ably between the middle of February and March 9, and on the latter date was below the preceding four years. Ohio production, however, has recovered to a marked ex tent in recent months after the extremely depressed con dition in Ohio union fields in 1927 and 1928. Rubber and Tires Akron tire factories have been at practical capacity. Dealer buying has been somewhat disappointing, but bad weather has held back the demand and up to the middle of March, spring buying by the public had not been felt to any great extent. Demand for tires as original equipment remains exceptionally heavy as motor com panies attain new high production records. Tire manu facturers are carrying rather heavy inventories, partly in anticipation of large orders when spring weather arrives. Employment in tire factories in February was slightly higher than January and nearly 10 per cent greater than a year ago. As shown in the chart below, crude rubber prices re covered materially in the first two months of 1929 after averaging about 18 cents a pound during most of 1928. The January average was 20 cents, and that for February was 23% cents. By the middle of March a further ad vance to around 25 cents had been scored, but by the 20th the price had reacted slightly. Price advances have re cently taken place in some mechanical rubber goods and rubber footwear. Crude rubber imports into the United States in Feb ruary amounted to 64,538 tons, as compared with only 29,445 tons last year. For the first two months, the fig ures are 116,843 and 75,688 tons respectively. Tire production (including solids) in the United States aggregated 5,074,000 units in January, as compared with 4,155,000 a year ago—an increase of 22 per cent. The soft coal markets displayed a slightly firmer tone in February and the first part of March. Domestic de mand was strong, owing to the cold weather in February, while steam coal was taken steadily in response to high industrial activity. Industrial consumers were estimated to have about 41,000,000 tons of soft coal on hand in the middle of March, a drop of nearly 10,000,000 tons from a year ago. The “ Coal Age” weighted average price for bituminous (spot, mine) was $1.87 in February as against $1.85 in January. Fourth District dealers report a good volume of sales uring the past few weeks. Profit margins are still nar row, however, owing to the low scale of prices now ex isting. Production of soft coal in the country declined notice Automobiles Automobile production in the United States made a new high for all time in February, the figure of 466,084 ex ceeding that of last August by nearly 5,000 cars. The record is particularly noteworthy in view of the short month. The February figure, of course, was far beyond any previous February, the next highest total for that 4 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW month being 370,569 in 1924. Last year, February out put was 323,796 cars and trucks. For the first two months of 1929, production totaled 866,799 units, as compared with 555,524 last year, 543,643 in 1927, and 672,850 in 1926. In 1924, the total for the first two months was 689,158 units, a new mark up to that time, but a marked slump in output occurred later in that year. The pace of production has not slackened in the first half of March; in fact, some of the largest manufacturers increased their output during the month, so that the av erage daily rate showed a gain even over February’s high figure. Sales are reported to be fairly satisfactory, al though somewhat spotty, the bad weather having had a retarding effect. In the Fourth District, sales have been well in excess of a year ago. February registrations of new passenger cars in 59 Ohio counties, representing over 80 per cent of the state's population, increased 51 per cent over the same month in 1928, according to the Ohio State University Bureau of Business Research, and also gained 16 per cent over January. Truck registration was 89 per cent greater than last year. Employment in motor and motor accessory plants in the District is nearly 50 per cent larger than a year ago. NEW PASSENGER CAR F eb . 1929 A k ron (S u m m it ) .................. C a n to n (S t a r k ) ...................... C in c in n a t i (H a m ilto n ) ...... C le v e la n d (C u y a h o g a ) ........ C olu m b u s ( F r a n k lin ) ........ D a y t o n (M o n tg o m e r y ) ...... T o le d o (L u c a s ) ...................... Y ou n g stow n (M a h o n in g ).... T o t a l ......................................... Clothing 904 619 1,230 3,537 948 787 1,028 533 9,586 R E G IS T R A T IO N Jan% c h a n g e J a n .-F e b . F e b . f r o m 1928 1929 1928 + 7 5 .9 1,922 1,077 4-67.8 1,123 632 + 19.9 2,114 2,472 + 5 3 .6 3,739 6,250 + 3 3 .7 1,935 1,343 + 37.8 1,090 1,646 + 65.8 1,168 1,811 + 51.4 1,008 666 + 4 8 .3 11,829 18,167 % ch ange f r o m 1928 + 7 8 .5 + 7 7 .7 + 16.9 + 67.2 + 4 4 .1 + 5 1 .0 + 55.1 + 51.4 + 5 3 .6 Business in most clothing lines was quiet in February, but March brought the stimulation of Easter purchasing. Orders for knitted wear exceed those of a year ago. Busi ness in women’s wear is more active than last month. In men’s underwear a reduction in rayon prices has brought some readjustment in prices of finished goods, which has hampered manufacturers who hold stocks pur chased at higher levels. The woolen goods trade has been quiet. Men’s clothing concerns are employing more help than a year ago, and February employment also exceeded January. Sales of 12 wholesale dry goods houses in the Fourth District in February declined 5.4 per cent from last year, but increased seasonally over January. For the first two months of 1929, sales were 4 per cent less than a year ago. Collections in February were slightly greater than last year. Retail clothing sales in 45 department stores in this District made an indifferent showing in February as com pared with the same month in 1928. Increases of 1.6 per cent in juniors' wear, 31.3 in sports’ wear, 6.7 in aprons and house dresses, 1.0 in hosiery, 2.5 in knit under wear, 5.5 in negligees, and 0.4 per cent in infants’ wear were offset by decreases of 10.3 per cent in men’s cloth ing, 5.3 in men’s furnishings, 3.7 in women’s coats, 4.6 in women’s dresses, 0.5 in misses’ ready-to-wear, 6.7 in boys’ wear, and 19.5 per cent in furs. Shoes Business in this line has been slow In the past several weeks. Both produc tion and sales in February made an unfavorable showing as compared with last year. Unusually cold weather in that month was a retarding factor, with retailers reporting poor sales and the Easter trade lagging. March brought the usual rush of Easter orders, but business was still rather quiet after allowing for the seasonal increase. Collections are reported as “ slow” by Cincinnati manufacturers. February production in the Fourth District ran 23 per cent behind last year and also declined about 6 per cent from January, although in the past February has nearly always recorded a gain over January. Output for the first two months of 1929 was 14 per cent less than last year, but was 0.3 per cent ahead of 1927 and 9 per cent larger than in 1926. Wholesale shoe sales in this District in February showed a large decrease of 42.5 per cent from a year ago. Retail sales in department stores were also lower, the de cline being 1 per cent in women’s shoes and 3 per cent in men’s shoes. Hide prices continued weak in March after their pro nounced slump in January and February, being quoted at around 14% cents a pound as compared with about 28 cents a year ago and 22 % cents in December. Other Manufacturing General activity is holding up to a month ago, with most lines doing, a good business. There are some un favorable spots, however. Buying is still hand-to-mouth in nearly all cases. Boxboard. Depression continues with profit margins unsatisfactory, but recently demand has increased slightly in response to low prices. Electric Supply. Orders are holding up well, being heavier than a year ago. Radios and accessories show a particularly large increase. Food Products. Stocks of wholesalers are not large, and buying has been steady with an increase in staple products. Glass. Business in general in this line is a little better than a year ago. Plate glass companies have benefited considerably from extremely heavy automotive demand* and plants are operating at near capacity. Orders fo r window glass up to mid-March were quiet, owing to severe weather. Buying of household glassware has been light on the part of both retailers and public. Employment is running ahead of last year. Metal Containers. February business was slightly leas than a year ago. Motor Accessories. Activity, of course, continues at a very high rate along with record-breaking automobile pro duction. Motor Trucks. Manufacturers report an encouraging increase in orders since the first of the year, with the immediate outlook promising. Collections are better. Paint. Industrial demand is good. Stocks in dealera* hands are low, although the motor industry is pretty weU stocked up. Manufacturers are confident concerning the spring trade. Orders for raw materials have exceeded fH E MONfHLT BUSINESS REVIEW those of a year ago; pig lead has advanced sharply, and the market is active. Stoves. Business is quiet. Demand has been sluggish, and collections are slow. Some price-cutting is reported, but without any sizable increase. AGRICULTURE, CANNING Whatever the growing season may develop hereafter, it has not made a very early start. The winter has been severe and farmers have not been able to begin their spring work as soon as desired. Frost in the ground made it impossible to plow early and even the balmy weather of the past two or three weeks has not aided farmers to any great extent because of the numerous rains. This long steady winter weather has, however, benefited the winter grains to the extent of affording them from four to six weeks of snow protection. As a result, the condition of the young plants this year is about 10 per cent higher than at the same time a year ago. Few complaints of winter-killing have been received so that abandonment this year for that reason is stated to be small. The acreage sown last fall was smaller than for the 1928 crop, but abnormal abandonment of fields took place last spring. Wheat stocks on farms are much below average. Last year’s harvest was the smallest in many years and stocks on hand on farms in this District are less than half as large as the average for the past five years. Corn held on farms, following the large crop of 1928, is con siderably greater in Ohio, but slightly smaller in Penn sylvania, than a year ago. Stocks of oats and barley are much heavier than a year ago due to the large pro duction of both grains in 1928. The outlook ii> the canning industry is said to be fair ly promising. The pack of peas in 1928 was quite large, that of corn larger than in 1927, but below the five-year average, and that of tomatoes only 8,500,000 cases as compared with a normal pack of about 13,000,000 cases. This, coupled with an active consumptive demand, has re duced stocks of whoesale grocers and packers more than usual. One large canner reports stocks as being less than at any time during the past ten years. Tobacco Planting in seed-beds has been going on in the Kentucky burley tobacco re gion. Government estimates of the new crop have not yet appeared, but private estimates, which are not forecasts, continue to indicate an increase in acreage this year. Some requests for burley seed have been received from Western Kentucky, which ordinarily grows dark-fired tobacco. Very little selling of the 1928 crop has been done re cently, as most of the crop had been disposed of by the first of March. The Lexington market was still running in mid-March, but was selling only once a week to take «are of the last of the crop. The small amount of leaf still coming in was rather mediocre in quality and was not bringing as good a price as earlier in the season. The season’s sales at Lexington alone amounted to about 62,000,000 pounds, at the very good average price of $33.40 per hundred pounds. & BUILDING Building contracts awarded in February in the Fourth District compared unfavorably with a year ago. Kesidential contracts amounted to only $10,200,351, the low est February since 1922, and total contracts were $36,360,000, the lowest for the month since 1924. The first two months of 1929 combined, however, showed a gain in to tal contracts over last year of about 40 per cent, owing to large industrial awards in Western Pennsylvania in January. Residential contracts awarded for the first two months were 23 per cent less than a year ago. Building permits in 24 cities in February were likewise less than a year ago, the drop being 15.8 per cent. Only five cities reported gains—Cincinnati, Covington, Erie, Hamilton, and Newark. For the first two months, the loss was 9.5 per cent, with 17 out of 24 cities showing decreases. Lumber Lumber manufacturers in this District are slightly more confident than a month ago, although competition re mains very keen. Orders are showing a seasonal increase, and hardwood prices have advanced. Retailers’ stocks of hardwoods have been permitted to decline to a low point, and this, coupled with smaller production in the south on account of prolonged wet weather, has revived activity in the hardwood branch of the trade. Mill operations in some parts of the south have been almost at a standstill on account of impassable roads for hauling, and Pacific Coast mills have also curtailed op erations due to cold weather. Building Operations (V a lu a tio n of P erm its) % C lcve. suburb#: C leve. H e ig h ts.. East C levelan d , E u c lid .................. G arfield H eigh ts' L a k e w o o d .......... R o c k y R iv e r ___ Shaker H eigh ts. C o lu m b u s.............. C ov in g ton , K y . . Erie, P a ................ L exin gton , K y . . . L im a ....................... N e w a r k .................. Pittsburgh, P a . . Sprin g field............ W heeling, W Va. Y ou n g stow n . . . . Febru ary 1929 ^920,970 3,650 32,340 132,810 2,798,165 2,871,400 change from 1928 — 2 6 .0 — 5 4 .4 — 3 6 .8 — 4 1 .1 + 4 8 .4 — 1 4 .8 J a n .-F e b . 1929 31,794,078 5,704 53,340 254,910 4,458,200 5,304,975 Jan .-F eb . 1928 31.901,563 31,030 75,418 804,662 2,995,545 5,925,725 % ch a n g e from 1928 — 5 .7 — 8 1 .6 — 2 9 .3 — 6 8 .3 + 4 8 .8 — 1 0 .5 101,025 6,100 48,825 60,000 22,765 164,290 61,005 371,900 535,800 211,450 353,425 2,066,216 103,790 52,220 3,520 15,875 2,008,717 33,125 476,345 69,865 235,755 — 7 7 .4 — 9 3 .1 — 6 6 .9 — 6 3 .9 — 9 3 .7 — 1 9 .6 — 2 0 .1 — 2 7 .0 — 5 9 .2 + 8 6 .6 — 4 7 .9 + 7 7 8 .8 + 2 7 .8 — 6 3 .8 — 8 8 .6 + 3 2 .8 — 1 8 .9 — 3 4 .0 — 7 4 .5 — 4 6 .1 — 4 4 .4 208,825 13,247 155,325 149,000 739,265 237,530 140,005 628,900 1,211,300 238,650 1,055,204 2,699,661 143,131 357,220 39,920 20,975 3,254,097 208,225 1,392,289 151,627 495,905 854,285 220,165 245,131 246,550 557,685 352,295 138,363 922,000 2,299,800 179,700 1,257,875 345,165 149,855 205,940 50,050 28,675 3,701,224 136,735 3,169,248 207,762 1,068,585 — 7 5 .6 — 9 4 .0 — 3 6 .6 — 3 9 .6 + 3 2 .6 — 3 2 .6 + 1 .2 — 3 1 .8 — 4 7 .3 + 3 2 .8 — 1 6 .1 + 6 8 2 .1 — 4 .5 + 7 3 .5 — 2 0 .2 — 2 6 .9 — 1 2.1 + 5 2 ,3 — 5 6 .1 — 2 7 .0 — 5 3 .6 $13,761,348 — 1 5 .8 325,411,508 328,071,031 — 9 .5 TRADE Retail Trade Sales of 63 department stores in the Fourth District in February were 1 per cent less than last year, but after allowing for the one extra selling day in February of 1928, sales this year were slightly larger. The greatest increase took place in Toledo, with 9.9 per cent. For the frfiE BfONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW first two months, gales this year increased 0.8 per cent over last year. Stocks on hand on February 28 were 3.7 per cent less than a year ago but 8.9 per cent larger than a month earlier. Sales of 16 wearing apparel firms declined 1.4 per cent from last year, but the first two months gained 1.1 per cent. Stocks at the end of February were 10.1 per cent lower than a year earlier, while accounts receivable were 9 per cent larger. Sales of 48 furniture stores in February decreased 8.7 per cent from a year ago, and furniture sales in 35 de partment stores also dropped 12.4 per cent. For the first two months, sales were 5.1 per cent less than last year. Accounts receivable at the end of the month in creased 2.4 per cent over a year ago. February collec tions were 4.8 per cent larger. February chain grocery sales (per individual unit op erated) were 5.6 per cent larger than a year ago, and the first two months were up 8.2 per cent. For chain drugs, the figures showed a loss of 5.3 and 3.0 per cent repectively. Sales of retail hardware firms in Ohio in February de creased 6 per cent from last year, according to the Na tional Retail Hardware Association, and were 21 per cent under the 1926-1928 average. For the first two months of 1928, there was a loss of 3 per cent. Percentage changes in the principal departments of retail stores were as follows: % change from Feb. '28 Silks and Velvets ....................................... —21.7 Woolen and Cotton Goods ........................ —11.7 Domestics ..................................................... — 2.4 Toilet Articles ............................................ -f- 8.0 Silverware, Jewelry ..................................... + 4.0 Millinery ....................................................... — 6.2 Gloves ........................................................... + 3.3 Hosiery ......................................................... + 3.0 Knit Underwear .......................................... + 2.8 Silk and Muslin Underwear ........................ + 0.7 Infants’ Wear .............................................. + 5.5 Women’s Shoes ............................................ — 0.9 Women’s Coats ............................................ — 5.7 Women’s Dresses ......................................... — 3.4 Misses’ Ready-to-Wear ................................ — 0.8 Girls’ Ready-to-Wear ................................... + 6.3 Furs ................................................................... — Men’s Clothing ................................................. .... 3.3 Men's Furnishings ....................................... 0.9 Boys’ Wear ....................................................... 2J2 Men’s Shoes .................................................. ... 2.9 Furniture ..................................................... ... 0.6 Rugs ................................................................... Draperies, Lamps ............................................. House Furnishings ........................................... Musical Instruments ....................................... Wholesale Trade _ — .... -|~ 43 4.9 1.5 0.6 All reporting wholesale lines in the Fourth District except drugs reported smaller sales in February than in the same month last year. Dry goods sales were 5.4 per cent lower, but increased 14.5 per cent over January. The first two months com bined showed a loss of 19.3 per cent. Stocks were 3.3 per cent larger than last year, receivables were up 0.5 per cent, and collections 2 per cent. Collections during Feb ruary were 39.9 per cent of accounts receivable on Jan uary 31. The monthly stock turnover rate in February was .378, or 4.54 times a year. Drug sales were 3.3 per cent larger than February, 1928, but were 17.9 per cent less than in January. For the first two months, sales gained 14.6 per cent over last year. Accounts receivable were 1.4 per cent larger and collections were 10.2 per cent larger. The collection per centage against January receivables was 78.2. Every reporting city shared the District’s loss from last year of 5 per cent in grocery sales. As compared with January, the loss was greater—11.2 per cent. For the first two months, however, sales increased 3.3 per cent over last year. Stocks and receivables declined 2.8 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively, while collections were 2 per cent larger. The collection percentage was 56.9 and the stock turnover rate was .516, or 6.19 times a year! Hardware sales dropped 4.4 per cent from last year but increased 4.2 per cent over January. Sales for the first two months were 2.3 per cent lower than a year ago. Stocks were 2.8 per cent less, receivables 1.2 per cent less, and collections 3.2 per cent greater. The percentage o f February collections to January receivables was 34.2, Shoe sales in February decreased 42.5 per cent from a year ago but gained 6 per cent over January. The decline for the first two months combined was 27.8 per cent. 7 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Fourth District Business Statistics (A ll figures are fo r F ou rth D istrict unless otherw ise specified) Feb. 1929 B a n k D ebit* (24 cities) M illion s °f 'no■,th, S S o7«pS 3S ” "u (26b,nk,) of dollars T h ou san ds o £ d o lla rs C om m erdalF ailures — N u m ber A ctu al N u m ber T h ou san ds o f dollars ” “ — Liabilities P o «ta l R eceipts— 9 cities “ “ “ Sales — L ife Insurance— O hio and Pa. “ “ “ ■” £ cpt*. Stores— (63 firms) “ “ W ea n n g Apparel (1 6 firms) — Furniture (48 firm s) “ “ “ ** — W holesale G ro ce ry (42 firm s) “ “ ** „ — “ D ry G ood s (12 firm s) “ ** “ „ — ** H ardw are (1 6 firm s) ** “ ** » .,,7 “ D rugs (13 firm s) ” " “ B u ild in g Perm its, V alu a tion — 27 cities ** “ “ B u ild in g C on tracts — T o ta l, 4th D istrict “ “ " . ‘ “ — R esidential, 4th D istrict M ** P rod u ction — P ig I r o n, U. S. “ “ tons — Steel In gots, U. S. “ “ “ — A u tom ob iles, U. S. Passenger Cars A ctu a l N u m ber T ru ck s " — B itum inous CoaL 4th D istrict T h ou san ds o f tons — C em en t: O hio, W . V a ., W n . Pa. “ “ barrels ** — E lectric P ow er: O hio, Pa., K y . M illion s o f k.w. hrs. « — P etroleu m : O hio, P a., K y . T h ou san ds o f barrels ** — Shoes, 4th D istrict “ “ pairs — T ires, U . S. “ “ casings B itu m in ou s C oa l Shipm ents (fr o m Lake Erie Ports) T h ou s. o f tons Iron Ore R eceipts (at L ake Erie Ports) “ “ ‘ M o n th ly A v era ge. •January. 3Figures C on fidential. Z Feb. 1928 3,315 2,921 + 13.5 781,730 275,411 1,057,141 166 2,891 2,942 110,382 21,031 741,643 278,186 1,019,829 186 4,728 3,120 105,921 21,233 1,229 1,061 5,740 + 5.4 1,211 969 5,454 1,912 1,671 1,677 13,761 36,360 2,021 1,748 1,622 16,336 37,841 15,179 2,899 4,045 10,200 3,215 4,325 407,589 58,495 17,146 829 1,310* 1,968* 291,151 32,645 14,765 978 1,166* 1,864* 5,037* 4,155* 3 3 J an .-F eb. 1929 change + 3.7 —10.8 — 38.9 — 5.7 + 4.2 — — — — — — + — — — + + % ch an ge 6,356 + 1 0 .2 7,003 781,251* 274,4 8 6 1 1,055,737* 362 7,527 6,097 219,555 42,842 2,642 1,709 11,598 3,582 3,274 3,718 25,412 91,040 21,503 6,648 8,814 1.0 — J a n .-F e b . 1928 1.0 1.4 8.7 5.0 5.4 4.4 3.3 15.8 3.9 32.8 10.9 6.9 + 40.0 + 79.2 + 16.1 — 15.2 + 12.3 + 5.6 — 22.9 739,488* 272,302* 1,011,7901 455 10,723 6,122 191,981 42,517 2,614 1,801 11,231 3,733 3,352 3,245 28,071 64 ,2 4 4 27,982 5,755 8,036 756,700 110,099 35,738 1,647 496,797 58,727 30,304 1,733 + 5 2 .3 + 8 7 .5 + 1 7 .9 — 5 .0 3 ■ +21.2 + 5 .6 + 0 .8 + 4 .3 — 2 0 .4 — 2 9 .8 — 0 .4 + 1 4 .4 + 0 .8 + 11 — 5 .1 + 3 .3 — 4 .0 — 2 .3 + 1 4 .6 — 9 .5 + 4 1 .7 — 2 3 .2 + 1 5 .5 + 9 .7 — 13! 5 Fourth District Business Indexes (1923-1925 ** 100) Retail and Wholesale Trade (1929 C o m p a re d w ith 1928) DEPARTMENT STORES (63) Akron......................................................... Cincinnati.................................................. Cleveland................................................... Columbus................................................... Dayton....................................................... Pittsburgh.................................................. Toledo........................................................ Wheeling.................................................... Youngstown............................................... Other Cities............................................... District....................................................... WEARING APPAREL (16) Cincinnati.................................................. Cleveland.......................................... !!!!*. Ocher Cities......................................1*. * District.................................. !!!!!!! FURNITURE (48) Cincinnati............................................... Cleveland................................... Columbus...................... Dayton.................................. **................ Toledo......................... Other Cities................... District............................... ................... CHAIN STORE* Dnsgs-^-District ( 3 ) ........................................ Groceries— District (4)........... ]!!!!!!! raOLESALE GROCERIES (42)........... Akron............................... Cincinnati................... !! ! ! ! ! * . .................. CUreland................ ................................ Erie................................ ........................... Pittsburgh................................................ Toledo.;............ ; ............................. Other Cities........... ................................ District...................................................... S S n i 'l a A T '! GOODS'(12)'.;; WHOLESALE SJR D w V r E (16).'.: WHOLESALE SHOES <3)... *Sal« per individual unit operated. P ercentage Increase o r D ecrease SA LE S SALES STOCKS F e b .First F ebFeb. 2 M os. Feb. . . . . . . . . . . . — — + — — + + — — + — . . . . 1 5 .0 3 .1 0 .3 1 .9 1 .8 0 .4 9 .9 3 .4 3 .3 4 .5 1 .0 — 0 .1 + 2 .1 + 4 .0 + 0 .2 — 2 .2 — 2 .9 + 1 0 .2 — 2 .5 + 0 .0 3 + 3 .9 + 0 .8 + + — — + — — — — — — — 7 .9 + 1 1 .8 — 6 .0 — 1 .4 — 5 .7 + 1 3 .9 — 2 .4 + 1 .1 — 1 .0 — 1 0 .6 — 1 3 .6 — 10 .1 . . . . . . . — — — — — — — 1 1 .5 6 .4 1 4 .0 8 .6 3 .6 1 9 .2 8 .7 — — — — + — — 1 1 .9 2 .8 5 .2 1 1 .0 5 .0 7 .6 5 .1 . . — + 5 .3 5 .6 — + 3 .0 8 .2 . . . . . . . . . . . . — 2 .5 — 4 .8 — 1 0 .1 — 12 .3 — 2 .2 — 0 .4 — 2 .5 — 5 .0 — 5 .4 + 3 .3 — 4 .4 — 4 2 .5 + 2 .8 + 2 .9 + 2 .3 — 4 .4 + 1 .0 + 5 .0 + 4 .8 + 3 .3 — 4 .0 + 1 4 .6 — 2 .3 — 2 7 .8 7 .4 5 .8 6 .9 0 .1 1 .3 4 .8 1 2 .7 1 0 .5 12.1 6 .5 3 .7 Bank D ebits (24 c it ie s )............................................. Com m ercial Failures ( N u m b e r ............................. “ “ ( L ia b ilit ie s )....................... Postal R eceipts (9 citie s ). . .................................... Sales— Life Insurance (O h io and P a .)................ “ — D ept. Stores (52 f i r m s ) ............................... “ — W holesale D rugs (13 fir m s ).................... 41 — “ D ry G o o d s (12 fir m s ).......... “ — “ G roceries (42 fir m s ).............. “ — ** H ardw are (16 fir m s )............ « All (88 firms)!.............. “ — Chain D rugs (3 firms) * *............................ B u ilding C on tracts ( T o t a l ) ................................... “ “ (R e s id e n tia l)....................... P rod u ction — C oal (O ., W n. Pa., E. K y . ) ......... — C em ent (O ., W n . Pa., W . V a .) .. “ — P etroleum ( 0 ., Pa., K y . ) * ........... “ — E lectric P ow er (O ., Pa., K y .) * .. — S h oes...................................................... ♦January. * * P e r in divid u al u nit operated, fln c lu d e s 4 shoe firms. Feb. 1929 122 114 66 113 132 82 107 79 80 78 82 80 76 59 95 69 107 156 97 F eb. 1928 108 127 107 120 127 84 104 83 85 82 86 84 79 88 82 81 101 139 125 F eb . 1927 109 111 79 114 117 82 100 79 79 87 83 90 107 89 111 72 98 138 107 F eb. 1926 96 129 90 110 106 81 97 83 82 90 85 95 90 121 108 61 93 129 93 F eb. 1925 91 82 47 99 111 81 95 89 84 96 87 91 89 94 91 49 95 111 96 Banking Operations Federal Reserve Banka Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Federal Reserve System (In Millions) (In Millions) Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Feb. 20 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Feb. 20 1929 1928 1929 1929 1928 1929 Gold reserves .................... 270 248 258 2,712 2,776 2,681 Discounts ........................... 77 67 81 943 477 866 Acceptances ..................... 25 29 84 237 888 856 U. S. Securities .............. 29 48 80 186 885 178 Total bills and securities.. 131 184 146 1,372 1,195 1,401 Federal Reserve notes in . circulation ..................... 202 189 201 1,642 1,565 1,652 Total deposits .................... 186 188 188 2,370 2.860 2,861 — * 2 !8 — 19.3 — '2 i 8 — 16.1 REPORTING MEMBER BANKS Fourth District United Statea (In Millions) (In Millions) Loans on securities .......... 714 657 696 7,642 6,545 7,448 All other ......................... 816 777 804 8,910 8.806 8,740 Total loans ..................... 1.530 1.484 1.501 16.552 15,850 16,188 Investments ..................... 691 782 698 5*25? is 'fa f iJ ’JJJ Demand d«porits ............. 1.027 Tima deposits .................. 977 1.026 968 1,017 1M 81 MS 6.805 18.M1 6.712 18.26* G.&67 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 8 Summary of National Business Conditions By The Federal Reserve Board Industry and trade continued active in February and the first part of March, and there was a growth in the volume of bank loans. Borrowings at reserve banks increased during the period, and money rates advanced further. Production Index number of production of manufacturer and minerals combined, adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 = 100). Latest figure: February, 117. Production continued at a high rate throughout February and the first half of March, and was substantially above a year ago. Automobile output was at a record rate in February, and there was also an unusually high daily average production of copper and iron and steel. Large output in the iron and steel industry reflected demands from manufacturers of automobiles, machine tools and agricultural implements, and from railroad companies. Preliminary reports for the first half of March indicate further expansion in automobile and iron and steel production. During February the daily average output of coal and crude petroleum also increased, and production of cotton and wool textiles continued large, while silk output declined some what from the unusually high level of January. There was also some decline from January in the production of lumber and cement, and in the output of meat-packing companies. The high rate of activity in manufacturing during February was reflected in a larger than seasonal increase in factory employment and payrolls, both of which were considerably above the level of February, 1928, Building activity declined further in February, and the value of con tracts awarded was over 20 per cent smaller than a year ago. Residential building contracts showed the largest decline in comparison with February, 1928, while those for public works and utilities were only slightly smaller in value, and commercial and industrial building awards increased. During the first half of March, there was some seasonal increase in total building awards, but they continued to be substantially below a year ago. BUILDING CONTRACTS AWARDED ---- With Stcsanai Adjustment Without, Adjoxtmitrt Federal Reserve Board’s indexes of value of building contracts awarded as reported by the P. W. Dodge Corporation (1923-1925 = 100). Latest figures, February—adjusted for seasonal, 119; unadjusted, 88. Distribution In February shipments of commodities by rail increased more than is usual for the season, reflecting larger loadings of coal and coke and mis cellaneous freight, which includes automobiles. During the first two weeks of March, freight car loadings continued to increase. Sales of wholesale firms were generally smaller in February than a year ago. In comparison with January, sales of dry goods, shoes, and furniture increased seasonally, while sales of groceries and hardware were smaller. Department stores reported about the same daily volume of sales in February as in the preceding month, and larger sales than a year ago. Prices Monthly averages of daily figures for 12 Fed eral reserve banks. Latest figures are for the first 23 days in March. The general level of wholesale prices declined slightly in February, and was approximately the same as a year ago. The decline from January reflected primarily decreases in the prices of hides and leather, livestock and meats, and small declines in the prices of wool, cotton and woolen goods. The influence of those declines on the general average was partly offset by increases in the prices of copper, lead, iron and steel, rubber, and grain. During the first two weeks of March, prices of wool and petroleum continued to decline, and rubber prices receded somewhat after a marked rise in February, while leather prices declined sharply. Prices of copper rose further and there were small increases in prices of hides, raw cotton and certain grades of lumber. Bank Credit Monthly rates fn the open market in New York: commercial paper rate on 4-to-6 month paper and acceptance rate on 90-day bankers* acceptances. Latest figures are averages of first 23 d a n in Hardt. Between the middle of February and the middle of March, there was a rapid growth of loans at member banks in leading cities. The increase was in loans chiefly for commercial purposes, which on March 13 were more than $200,000,000 larger than four weeks earlier. Investments of the reporting banks declined further during the period. Total volume of reserve bank credit declined somewhat between February 20 and March 20, reflecting for the most part some further gold imports from abroad. Member bank borrowing at Federal reserve banks was nearly $80,000,000 larger on March 20 than four weeks earlier, while acceptances showed a further decline of about $120,000,000 during the period. Security holdings showed relatively little change. Money rates continued to advance. Rates on 4-6 month commercial paper rose from 5^-5% to 534-6 per cent, and rates on 90-day bankers’ acceptances increased from 5 to 5^4 per cent on February 13 and to per cent on March 21. Open market rates for collateral loans also increased.
@FedFRASER