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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions
in the
Fourth Federal Reserve District
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Cleveland, Ohio, April 1, 1928
Vol. 10
Perhaps the most noticeable feature in the Fourth
District recently has been the steady gain in employment.
After a long decline in 1927 the low point was reached
the early part of this year, but since then the number
of men employed has shown a gradual but definite in
crease. On March 10 th, 36 large and representative
manufacturers reported 96,115 employees as compared
with 95,705 a year ago.
The general situation in the District continues decidedly
mixed, but with the trend still upward on the whole.
The iron and steel industry in March has been able to
hold its February gains. Tire manufacturers have been
hampered by the fall in crude rubber, but this is partially
offset by the early opening of Spring demand. The coal
industry is as depressed as ever. Business in apparel
lines has improved, and both retail and wholesale trade
are showing up well. Shoe manufacturers are operating
on heavy schedules, and wholesale shoe sales have shown
a marked improvement.
Building contracts awarded
compare unfavorably with last year, but permits are
larger. In agriculture, the condition of winter wheat is
fair to poor, but the outlook for tobacco is promising.
In the United States, February continued the improve
ment in general business activity which commenced in
No. 4
January. This bank’s weekly index of distribution, based
on car loadings, averaged about 104 in February as com
pared with 101 in January. For the week ending Febru
ary 25, the index stood at 105, as against 103.1 a month
earlier. This increase is confirmed by a rise in the
Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index from
106 in January to 108 in February, and also by the
Annalist’s index of general business activity, which ad
vanced from 94.6 in January to 97.2 (preliminary) in
February.
The distribution index again advanced slightly in early
March, rising from 105 for the week ending February
25 to 106.7 the following week. Then came a drop to
106.1 for the week ending March 10 and a further drop
to 104.9 for the week ending the 17th.
EMPLOYMENT
Considerable concern has recently been manifested about
the employment situation. It is true that both employ
ment and payrolls in the United States declined through
out most of 1927—the Federal Reserve Board’s index of
employment falling from 93.9 in March to 89.0 in Decem
ber, and the payroll index from 109.9 in March to 101.2
in November.
January brought a further slump in
both indexes, that of the number of employees dropping
to 87.9, and payrolls to 97.7. In February, however, a
marked reversal of direction took place in the payroll
index, which jumped to 103.5— the highest since October
—and the employment index also rose over a point.
Whether the rise will continue is, of course, impossible to
determine at this time, but at least the long decline
appears to have been halted.
Returns from the Fourth District also disclose a gain
in employment during recent weeks. This bank recently
requested information from about 40 large manufacturers
as to the number of men employed on specified dates.
The combined replies from 36 concerns show a slow
but steady gain beginning with January, and—what is
more interesting— show that more men were employed
on March 10 than a year ago at that time. The figures
are as follows:
N um ber o f
E m ployees
Solid line— W eekly index of car loadings,
F. R.
B. of
Cleveland
< 1 9 2 3 -1 9 2 5 = 100).
Latest figure: W eek ending March 10— 106.1.
Broken line— Monthly i n d ^ of industrial pro
duction,
F.
R.
Board,
(1 9 2 3 -1 9 2 5 = 1 0 0 ).
Latest figure: February— 108.
Both curves
adjusted
for
seasonal
variation
FRASER
Digitized for
March 10, 1928.................................................
February 10, 1928...........................................
January 10, 1928.............................................
December 10, 1927............................................
March 10, 1927.................................................
96,115
95,925
95,362
95,709
95,705
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
2
It is noteworthy that 22 of the 36 concerns reported an
increase in employment between February 10 and March
10, while only 8 showed a loss (6 reporting no change).
As compared with a year ago, only 11 firms reported an
increase, and yet the gains in these firms were more
than sufficient to offset the declines shown by the other
25 concerns.
Other statistics on Fourth District employment sup
port the above figures for the most part. Thus, employ
ment in Ohio industrial firms reporting to the Bureau of
Business Research, Ohio State University, increased 5
per cent during February as compared with January;
the number of men in 100 Cleveland concerns reporting
to the Cleveland Chamber of Commerce in February
increased 2.6 per cent over January; the number of
employees in the metal trades of five Ohio cities, repre
senting 213 shops, rose from 77,409 in January to 83,937
in February; and 51 firms in Toledo showed a gain during
March over both February and a year ago, the increase
over last year (March 6) being from 31,460 to 34,568,
or almost 10 per cent. Cincinnati, however, reports a
slight falling-off in February as compared with January,
and a larger slump from a year ago.
Considerable irregularity obtains in employment, as in
general business, at the present time; but recent devel
opments have been favorable and the general trend in the
Fourth District is upward.
FINANCIAL
But little change in money rates has occurred in the
past few weeks. In the Fourth District, loans on prime
commercial paper now range from 4% to 6 per cent in
the larger centers, and collateral loans fall mostly in
the 5-6 per cent range. Rates on commodity paper,
secured by warehouse receipts, etc., are around 6 per
cent. In New York commercial paper is a little firmer
at 4-4% per cent as against 4 a month ago; acceptances
remain unchanged at 3% per cent; and the call money
renewal rate has stood at either 4*4- or 4% per cent
since February 1, the prevailing rate in March being
4%. Time money on the stock exchange on March
20 stood at 4%-4% per cent, virtually the same as a
month ago. On March 1 the rediscount rate of this bank
was raised from 3% to 4 per cent.
Bills discounted by this bank rose from 46 millions
on February 15 to 56 millions on March 21, but Gov
ernment securities held fell from $49,740,000 to $48,087,000. In the System, discounts fell from $481,000,000 on
February 15 to $472,296,000 on March 14, and Govern
ment securities held also showed a further slight fallingoff.
Loans of Fourth District member banks on March
14 were $5,000,000 larger than the month before. Loans
secured by stocks and bonds dropped from $644,191,000
on February 15 to $637,967,000 on March 14, but "all
other” rose from $763,385,000 to $776,864,000. Invest
ments dropped about $4,000,000. Time deposits jumped
from $924,117,000 to $953,102,000, while demand deposits
dropped from $1,067,338,000 to $1,032,273,000.
Savings deposits of 68 banks in this District amounted
to $1,011,670,936 on February 29, a gain of 9.2 per cent
for the year and of 1.3 per cent for the month.
Debits to individual account at 13 large centers in
this District were $2,375,108,000 in February, as com*
pared with $2,440,874,000 a year ago and $2,796,099,000
in January.
Commercial failures as reported by R. G. Dun
and Company, numbered 186 in February, 269 in Janu
ary, and 162 a year ago. Liabilities were $4,727,509
in February, $5,995,461 in January, and $3,494,055 *
year ago. In the United States there were 2176 failures
in February, 2643 in January, and 2035 in February, 1927.
The following table gives the main changes in the
balance sheets of the Federal reserve and reporting
member banks.
Federal Reserve
Bank o f Cleveland Federal Reserve System
(In Millions)
(In M illions)
Mar. 14, Mar. 16, Feb. 15, Mar. 14, Mar. 16. Feb 1 *
1928
1927
1928
1928
1927
261
303
264 2,788 8,024
2,814
Gold Reserves _______
Discounts ..........................
51
38
46
472
331
4g i
Acceptances ......................
29
22
32
843
219
8BS
U. S. Securities -----------49
44
50
401
475
4oa
Total bills and securities
129
104
128 1,218 1,027
1,245
Federal Reserve notes in
circulation ....................
194
203
194 1,574 1,706
1,68ft
Total deposits —.....___
187
200
189 2,403 2,328
2,444
REPORTING MEMBER BANKS
Fourth District
United States
(In Millions)
(In M illions)
Mar. 14, Mar. 16, Feb. 15, Mar. 14, Mar. 16, Feb i r
1928
1927
1928
1928
1927
t »88
Loans secured by stocks
653
603
661
6,526
and bonds ..................
777
780
763 8,799
A ll other .........................
Total loans ...................... 1.430
1,382 1,425 15,326
Investments ..................
713
679
717 6,538
Demand deposits ............ 1,032 1,086 1,067 13,784
Time deposits .— ------ ...
953
845
924 6,701
MANUFACTURING, MINING
Iron and
Steel
Sentiment has been at variance w ith
fact in the iron and steel indus
try. At a time when production, taking
steel ingots as the gauge, has been at a record rate
prices generally have been tending upward, and produc
tion has been moving directly into consumption, a shade
of uneasiness has crept in.
This condition has been more noticeable in the Pitts
burgh, Youngstown, and Cleveland districts than
Chicago, Birmingham or in the East. It represents
in part the disposition of producers to discount the present
and appraise the future, and in steel the second quarter
is rarely as good as the first. Increased resistance 0f
consumers to further price advances has also been
factor.
a
The lag in oil country buying has handicapped th
Mahoning Valley, and the increased persistence required
by mills there to elicit specifications for sheets, stri*>
and tin plate has made an impression. Chicago p *
ducers, on the other hand, have been operating 1
I
finishing departments at capacity, benefitting from h e a w
specifications from the farm implement, automotive, c
building and construction industries.
9 ar
On the statistical side of the market, both pig \T
and steel ingot production in February registered gal0*
over January, and ingots set a new high record for
ruary. An increase of only 3.6 per cent in March woul<*
top the all-time high of last March. Although th
makers of heavy steel did not put over the $2.00
ton advance for the second quarter which some sou^h ?
new quarter contracts generally carry a $1.00
Broadly, steel production in the first quarter has appro^f*
TTTTC MONTHLY b u s in e s s
mated, if not equalled, that of the first quarter of 1927,
and earnings have been the best since that period.
Automotive interests have been relatively the heaviest
buyers of steel. Their March schedules were higher than
those of February, which in turn exceeded January.
February freight car orders aggregated 9962, compared
with 5960 a year ago, and car builders have been speci
fying proportionately. Building steel orders, especially
in the New York and Chicago districts, have been better
than a year ago.
New business in pig iron has been secondary to ship
ments, and tonnage moving from some lake furnaces,
especially to automotive foundries, has never been
equalled. Lake furnaces have stiffened 50 cents in
selling into southern Ohio and eastern Indiana. Steel
makers in the immediate Pittsburgh district have had
surplus basic and besscmer iron to market and have
taken advantage of favorable freight rates to sell under
the equivalent Valley prices. Second quarter buying in
most districts has been modest, chiefly because coverage
for the entire first half was extensive early in the year.
When steel ingots reached a daily output rate of
160,591 gross tons in February they set a new high mark
for that month. This rate compared with 152,354 tons
in January and 157,557 tons last February. The alltime monthly high is 166,633 tons, attained last March.
February's total ingot output of 4,014,774 tons gave the
first two months of 1928 an aggregate of 7,975,983 tons
against 7,541,253 tons a year ago.
February’s daily pig iron rate of 99,954 tons compared
with 92,113 tons in January and 105,021 tons in Feb
ruary, 1927. The apparent discrepancy between pig iron
and steel ingot rates results from a wider use of scrap.
February’s total was 2,898,668 tons. For two months, pig
iron stands at 5,751,183 tons, compared with 6,041,950
tons in the similar period of 1927.
The Iron Trade Review index of fourteen leading iron
and steel products in March approximated $36.91, con
trasted with a revised average of $35.62 for February,
$35.27 for January, and $36.83 last March.
Soft coal production in the United
States held up well in the first half
of March. For the week ending March
the daily average rate was 1,737,000 tons. This figure
r e v ie w
3
is still considerably lower than last year’s record levels,
but is close to the output in 1926 and 1925. The situa
tion in the union fields in this District, however, has
not become any better, the output being very low. In
the country at large, the non-union mines are still pro
ducing most of the soft coal.
Fourth District dealers report but little change in
retail demand. A slightly firmer tone is evident here
and there owing to the necessity of replenishing storage
stocks which have been gradually declining for almost a
year. The price situation has shown a very slight im
provement, the Coal Age average for February being
$1.86 as against $1.85 for January. One indication of
improvement in this District is the fact that less coal
of inferior grade is finding its way into the market below
the cost of production, and the coal of this type that is
coming in is having difficulty in finding buyers.
The Interstate Commerce Commission has recently
reaffirmed a reduction of 20 cents a ton made last
summer on freight rates on lake cargo coal from Southern
Ohio points, while denying a petition from Southern
carriers for a similar reduction. The rate from the
Southern Ohio fields is now $1.43 a ton, and from the
Pittsburgh district, $1.46 a ton. From West Virginia
and Kentucky fields, the $1.91 rate still prevails.
Rubber and
Tires
Uncertainty with regard to the future
of the Stevenson Restriction Act caused
a further slump in crude rubber prices
during the first part of March. From a figure of 29
cents at the opening of the month—about 9 cents below
the February 1st quotation—crude declined to a low of
25 cents a pound (ribbed smoked sheets, spot) on the
12th. Not since 1924 has such a low price prevailed.
On March 19, however, there was a sudden recovery to
28 cents, coincident with the announcement that the
American rubber pool had obtained a new credit of
$60,000,000.
In the Fourth District the industry is awaiting some
definite decision by the British government with regard
to the Stevenson Act. The recent fluctuations in crude
prices have had a retarding effect, as dealers have shown
an inclination to withhold purchases in the event of
further price declines. Inventories in tire manufacturers’
4
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
hands of both crude and finished products are stated to
be large. On the other hand, the approach of Spring and
the seasonal increase in the volume of sales consti
tute a favorable factor, and operations are holding up
well.
The chart above shows the price fluctuation in the last
three years in the two principal raw materials used in
tire manufacturing. Monthly average prices are used,
the latest figures being for the first 20 days of March,
represented by dotted lines.
The downward trend in
rubber since the first of the year is very noticeable.
Automobiles
The situation in this industry is still
spotty, but shows very definite im
provement over last Fall.
United
States production in February totaled 323,368 cars and
trucks, exceeding that of a year ago by some 18,000.
This increase, though small, is particularly noteworthy
because February was the first month to show a gain
over the same month in preceding year since August,
1926— a period of 18 months. Output for the first two
months of 1928 amounts to 555,015, or 11,300 more than
last year.
Although the industry as a whole thus shows a healthy
gain in production, this gain is not distributed equally.
Earnings statements of the larger companies in 1927
exhibited some exceedingly wide variations, and this
condition still appears to hold true. In addition, January
sales were somewhat disappointing (February not yet
available).
Thus, in 35 states and the District of
Columbia, new passenger car registrations were only
86,156, as against 115,271 a year ago. The whole situa
tion is made more uncertain by the slowness of Ford in
getting into full production, and the consequent holding
up of new car purchases by an indeterminate number
of buyers.
In the Fourth District, passenger car and truck con
cerns are making a satisfactory showing as compared
with a year ago. According to the Cleveland Chamber
of Commerce, sales of new cars in Cleveland (Cuyahoga
County) in the first two months of 1928 totaled 3,739,
a gain of 51 over last year, but used car sales registered
a loss of 486, amounting to 16,501. The total number
of cars sold was thus smaller than in the first two
months of 1927 by about 2 per cent. In Cincinnati, sales
of both new and used cars were less in February than
in January, the figures being 2896 in February and 4526
in January.
Automobile
Prices
The table below gives the list prices
of 25 makes of automobiles at the be
ginning of each year from 1923 to 1928
inclusive. In each case, a model has been selected for
which comparable prices are available for the entire
period. A slight inaccuracy exists in a few instances
where the present models do not run back for more than
two or three years; but in these cases a corresponding
model of the same type was used in the earlier years,
so that the figures are accurate enough for all practical
purposes. A number of makes had to be omitted entirely
on account of the lack of models for which comparable
figures were available for the entire period.
The table furnishes an excellent illustration of the
downward trend of automobile prices during the last
few years. This is particularly noticeable in the lo w priced and medium-priced groups, the former exhibiting*
an average decline of 25 per cent during the past six
years, and the latter of 29 per cent. In the case o f
the six higher-priced cars shown, the decline was on ly
9 per cent. In the low-priced group, the average price
has shown a steady downward trend year by year, and
the same is true of the second class except for 1 9 2 5
The result is that the average low-priced car now costs
$217 less than five years ago, and the average mediumpriced machine costs $549 less. In both groups there
has been a noticeable reduction even from a year ago.
A U T O M O B IL E PRICES
otherw ise indicated, prices are on 6-cylinder f OUr
door sedans)
U nder $1,000
1928
1926
1927
1925
1924
1923
Chevrolet 4 ......................
. $ 675 $ 695 $ 735 $ 825 $ 795 i& 860
D odge 4 ...........................
875
895
895 1,095 1,250 1,195
E ssex Coach ....................
735
735
735
795 1,000 1,145
F ord Tudor 4 ..................
495
495
495
580
590
595
S tar 4 .................................
570
795
795
820
785
645
W hip p et Coupe 4 ..........
535
625
685
625*
650*
750*
A vera ge ..........................
723
648
707
790
845
865
(E x ce p t
w h ere
$l,0 00-$2,0 00
H udson
P aige
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1,295
1,295
1,495
1,595
1,395
1,175
1,385
1,545
1,335
1,145
1,025
1,655
1,495
1,372
1,295
1,295
1,595
1,595
1,395
1,285
1,385
1,545
1,485
1,195
975
1,655
1,585
1,407
1,695
1,295
1,895
1,545
1,595
1,095
1,385
1,545
1,445
1,195
1,025
2,165
1,895
1,521
1,795
1,665
2,195
1,695
1,720
1,250
l,3 7 5 f
1,595
1,545
1,545
1,285
2,165
1,895
1,671
1,695
1,495
2,095
1,825
1,720
1,500
l,4 2 5 f
1,495
1,640
1,445
1,135
2,095
1,985
1,654
2 ,245
1.985
2,270
1 ,8 2 5 ?
1,995
1,525
l,7 5 0 f
1,695
2 .040
1,545
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2,790
4,800
6,720
2,285
2,995
3,450
3,840
2,790
4,900
6,720
2,250
2,995
3,350
3,834
2,790
4,900
6,720
2,585
3,495
3,995
4,081
3,200
4,900
6,720
2,585
3,895
3,995
4,216
2,850
4,700
6,720
3,375
3,815
3,895
4,226
2,850
4 ,700
6,720
3,275
3,900
O ver $2,000
P ierce A rrow ....
A verage .............
•Overland
JEstimated
fF o u r Cylinder
1,595
2 ,450
2 ,050
1,921
3,895?
4,223
Clothing
Manufacturers of men's and women’s
wearing apparel and millinery in th is
District report an improvement in busi,
ness, with orders about on a level with last year. Th e
February sales of these articles as reported by 7 q
retail stores present a rather mixed picture of the situa
tion.
Women's coats and dresses showed respec
tive decreases of 6.3 and 1.9 per cent from
a
year ago, while suits gained 4.1.
Misses' coats
and suits decreased 8.4 per cent, but misses’ dresses
increased 10.3 per cent.
Men’s clothing fell off g ^
per cent, but men's furnishings gained 9.5 per cen t
Millinery showed the largest change, a decrease of 1 4 ^
per cent from February, 1927.
Fourteen wholesale dry goods firms in the Fourth
District continued to report a gain in sales. The increas
for the month as compared with a year ago was 3 7
per cent, and as compared with January was 23.4. Gain
were reported by about half of the firms, the othe 3
showing a slight falling off. Stocks increased 9.4 r> S
cent over a year ago, but collections decreased 9 »
per cent.
Conditions in the knitting line are unsettled. Som
manufacturers report gains while others say there
a lull in the demand for both under- and outer-wea1S
5
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
The price of cotton continued to rise during March,
advancing a cent per pound during the twenty days.
Silk buying, both in raw and manufactured, continued
strong.
Shoes
The manufacturing end of the Fourth
District’s shoe trade in February was
marked by unusually heavy production
for that month. Wholesale distribution improved over
January, while retail shoe sales in department stores
were not quite equal to February of last year. In the
first part of March, future orders received by manu
facturers were stated to be satisfactory, though not
so heavy as in February.
Preliminary production figures from 35 shoe manufac
turers in this District, representing 82 per cent of all re
porting manufacturers, show a gain in February of 18.5
per cent over last year, and a correspondingly large increase
over February of 1926, 1925, and 1924. Another notable
accomplishment of the February production figure was
a gain of 20.7 per cent over January, this being con
siderably greater than seasonal. The average increase
of February over January, in fact, was only 4.9 per cent
for the four years 1924-1927 combined.
Furthermore,
the January output was also unusually heavy, being ex
ceeded only once in the four preceding Januarys, so it is
evident that the February spurt cannot be explained on
the grounds of low production in January.
Along with this heavy increase in manufacturing opera
tions came a marked improvement in wholesale sales.
February sales, it is true, were 2.2 per cent less than a
year ago, but this was the smallest decrease from the
preceding year since August, 1927, and compares with
a 31.7 per cent drop in January. In addition, February
sales were 81.5 per cent greater than those of January.
Retail shoe sales did not make quite such a good show
ing in February, but held up fairly well. In 50 depart
ment and apparel stores in the Fourth District, sales of
women’s shoes were 7.4 per cont under a year ago, but
children’s shoes gained 7.4 per cent, and men’s and boys’
shoes were up 13.4 per cent. The total of all three
showed a decline of 3.1 per cent from last year.
General
Manufacturing
Further reports of improvement, partly
seasonal, are coming in from various
lines of manufacture in this District.
Sentiment in general is a trifle more optimistic than a
month ago, and a number of lines which were standing
still during January and February have finally taken a
turn for the better.
Agricultural Implements. Reports indicate that orders
for the Spring trade are slightly ahead of a year ago.
Boxboard. Very little change has recently occurred,
business being only fair.
Electrical Supplies. February brought a gain in orders,
and 1928 so far has been noticeably ahead of the last
quarter of 1927.
Glass. Increasing demand from the automotive industry
together with a continuation of good building demand
has benefited this line, and sales are improving. How
ever, keen foreign competition and lower prices continue to
be unfavorable factors.
Lumber. The lumber trade has not been doing very
well for some time. Reports on the present situation
are conflicting, but on the whole are rather unfavorable.
Overproduction is still hampering the industry, but
there is now some indication of reduced production on
the part of Southern mills.
Machinery.
Several lines report improvement.
For
example, a large volume of business has recently been
done by makers of foundry supplies, and a gradual up
swing in business is taking place in woodworking ma
chinery.
Metal Containers.
Business continues good.
Prices
have weakened slightly, owing to lower quotations on
tin plate. Stocks in customers’ hands are very low.
Paint. The condition of this industry continues to be
good. Business is showing a gain both over last year
and over the winter, one firm reporting a 15 per cent
gain in February and March as compared with the same
period in 1927. Raw material prices are firmer.
Pottery.
Operations are in good volume, and the
general
situation appears satisfactory.
Stoves.
The situation remains quiet.
Inquiries are
numerous, but actual orders are only fair. Competition
is still very keen.
AGRICULTURE
Winter wheat fields in this District present a rather
spotty appearance. Reports coming from the southern
half of Ohio show that the wheat planted early last
Fall, which amounted to about 50 per cent of the total,
is in average condition and only needs fair weather to
produce a good crop. The open winter, with the alter
nate freezing and thawing, has had a very bad effect on
the wheat planted late in the season, this wheat not
having had time to develop a root system strong enough
to withstand the extremely hard weather. In the north
ern part of the state the crop does not look very prom
ising, much of the wheat appearing dead or badly dam
aged. The abandonment of planted fields is partly con
tingent on the weather during the next month, and may
be but little more than average if the weather proves
favorable.
The statement on farmers’ intentions to plant, as com
piled by the United States Department of Agriculture from
50,000 reports, shows that in the entire country farmers
plan to increase their acreages of the main crops (ex
clusive of cotton) by over 3 per cent. The heavier in
creases are found in the Mississippi Valley where wet
weather or floods interfered with planting last spring.
The farmers’ intentions to plant, of course, are not a
forecast of the acreage which will actually be planted.
The latter may be larger or smaller than these reports
indicate^ due to weather conditions, price changes, labor
supply, etc. In this District, intentions to plant were less
settled than in an ordinary year owing to the uncertainty
of the survival of the winter wheat crop. The intended
plantings of spring wheat, barley, oats, and corn, crops
which mainly replace abandoned wheat fields, are a bit
uncertain.
The planting intentions in 1928 for states comprising
this District and the entire country, expressed as per
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
6
centages of the acreage actuallyharvested in
as follows for the principal crops:
U.S.
Ohio
Pa.
Ivy.
Corn .............. 102.8
101
106
110
97
97
120
Oats ................ 98.6
Potatoes .........111.9
120
117
115
I-Iay, Tame .......98.6
92
98
98
Barley .............114.3
115
130
80
Tobacco ...........115.7
130
104
132
1927, are the whole, residential building appears to be holding up
well, while other types have fallen behind last year.
W. Va.
Total February contracts awarded in the Fourth Dis
104
trict again compared unfavorably with the country as
96
a whole. Contracts in the District were valued at $ 3 7 _
120
841,000 as compared with $50,808,000 last year, a loss of
100
about 25 per cent, while the dollar totals for the United
States showed a gain of 15 per cent. Residential con
140
tracts, however, give a more hopeful picture, the Feb
ruary figure for the District being $15,179,000 as com
Perhaps the most unfavorable factor in the Ohio agri
pared with $15,385,000 in 1927, a loss of less than 2
cultural situation is the general exhaustion of the corn
supply on farms. It was estimated that on March 1 , per cent. For the first two months of 1927, total con
tracts were about 30 per cent under last year, while
1928, there were only 36,208,000 bushels still on the farms
as compared with 66,254,000 bushels in 1927. This is residential contracts were only 3 per cent less.
Turning to building permits in 27 large cities, it Is
7 per cent less than the ten-year average. The num
found that February actually showed a gain of 19.8 per
ber of livestock has remained practically normal, which
cent over last year, making the total for the first tw o
means that the shortage of feed is a direct expense and
months of 1928 nearly 3 per cent ahead of the sam e
loss to the farmer. As it is not generally profitable to
period in 1927. Gains and losses were fairly equally
purchase corn at $1.00 or more a bushel to feed hogs at
distributed among the reporting centers, but the p e r
8 cents a pound, farmers are selling hogs at a sacrifice
centage losses were relatively small except in Ashtabula
rather than pay the high price for feed.
Rocky River, Newark, and Wheeling.
Gains of over
The Department of Agriculture’s index of the general
100 per cent over February of 1927 occurred in Toledo
level of all farm prices declined during the period
Garfield Heights, and Lakewood, and substantial increases
January 15 to February 15, from 137 to 135 per cent
were also registered by Barberton, Cincinnati, Covington
of the pre-war level, 1910-1914. This index is still much
higher than in February, 1927, when it stood at 127. and Erie. Cleveland permits were up 26.3 per cent fo r
February and 43.8 per cent for the first two months
The decrease from January was caused by the decline
Pittsburgh increased 21.8 per cent for the month but w as
in the poultry products index of 33 points, and in the
31.5 per cent behind 1927 for the first two months o w
cotton products index of 11 points. The grain index
ing to a 64 per cent decrease in January.
advanced 3 points, due mostly to the increase in corn
which advanced 5 per cent. The fruit and vegetable
Building Operations
index rose 11 points, most of this occurring in the prices
( V a l u a t i o n of P e r m it s )
received for potatoes and apples. The farm price of
February,
change
cattle advanced 1 point, the decline in hog prices off
Ian.-Feb. Jan.-F eb.
ch an ge
1928
f r o m 1927
1928
1927
from 1 9 2 7
setting the gains in the other lines.
1,244,475
1,901,563
+
3 .4
A k r o n ..........................
3,7 88, 038
— 4 9 .8
— 77.3
31 ,0 30
A s h t a b u l a .................
8,0 0 0
9 0, 1 95
— 65.6
Tobacco
Interest now centers in the 1928 crop in B a r b e r t o n .................
51, 192
+ 39.8
7 5, 418
42,620
+ 77. q
2 25 ,4 8 9
— 14.0
804 ,6 6 2
468,388
+ 7 | .8
the Kentucky burley tobacco territory. CC ai nnctionnn........................
a t i ................
2 ,9 9 5. 5 45
1 ,88 5,9 05
+ 65.1
3 ,0 2 0, 5 45
T 0. 8
+ 26.3
5,92 5,7 25
4,120,101
The March 17th report of the Depart C l e v e l a n d .................. 3 , 3 6 9 , 2 7 5
+ 4 3 .8
Cleveland suburbs:
ment of Agriculture on farmers’ “ intentions to plant”
C leve . H e i g h t s . .
447 ,60 0
+ 14.6
854,28 5
58 4,632
+ "46. x
East C l e ve l a n d . .
+ 64.2
220 .16 5
115.636
8 7 , 8 75
+ 90.4
on March 1 indicates an increase of 32 per cent over the
245,131
E u c l i d .......................
+ 87.3
1 47 ,29 1
1 5 1 , 32 5
+ 62.0
246 ,550
Garfield H e ig h ts.
+ 126.2
149,900
166,050
1927 acreage. This would mean 421,700 acres, as against
+ 2 2 4 .9
558 ,1 3 5
L a k e w o o d ..............
144 ,483
3 5 8 ,8 1 0
+286! 3
352 ,2 9 5
+ 26.7
P a r m a ......................
319,500 actually harvested last year.
These figures
20 4 ,3 2 5
3 61 .3 1 6
138.363
— 64.7
Rocky River. . . .
2 7 4 ,0 0 5
76,3 15
= « !:!
cannot be taken as final, as planting intentions are
—
7 .5
922,000
1 ,0 7 4, 6 00
Shaker H e ig h ts. .
509,500
— 2 6.6
2,299,800
2 ,7 9 8 , 0 0 0
1 ,3 1 3, 4 00
= l ? :!
obviously subject to change; but at the present time CC oo lvui nmg bt ouns,.................
+ 38.2
17 9 ,7 0 0
1 35 ,4 0 0
K y....
1 1 3 ,3 0 0
+ 3 2 .7
— 11.2
1,2 57, 875
678,877
1,1 6 4, 2 88
the prospects are for a considerably larger acreage than
+
8.0
+ 31.9
345 ,16 5
414,884
23 5 ,1 2 5
T
16-8
last year, owing to the very favorable prices received
—
2 .1
149,855
13 3 ,2 3 4
81, 2 30
+ 12.5
—
4 .6
205,940
144 ,25 5
321 ,7 4 5
by growers for their 1927 tobacco during the selling L e x i n g t o n , K y . . . .
T 36 0
+ 12.5
50,050
30. 835
41,781
+ 1 9 .8
— 34.3
28,
675
1
1,9
50
32
,1
00
season recently closed.
~
1 0 .7
+ 21.8
3,7 0 1 , 2 2 4
5,400.400
2 ,4 7 6, 1 15
Pittsburgh, Pa.. . .
—
31.5
— 11.5
135,035
During the first half of March, preparations for the S p r i n g f i e l d ................
48,4 70
112 ,59 0
+
1 9 .9
3,169, 248
+ 180.1
1 ,2 2 3 , 6 1 1
+ 159. 0
new crop have been going forward, and some plant W h e e l i n g , W . V a . 1 , 81 62 49 ,, 95 98 23 — 6 2 . 7
2 07,76 2
4 23.9 47
~T
51-0
—
7 .0
1,068,585
424,395
£: 6 8 2 , 7 0 0
+ ^>6. s
beds have been sown. The weather has been compara Y o u n g s t o w n ............
+ 19.8
2 8,0 69 ,78 1 27 ,2 70 ,4 63
T o t a l ....................... 1 6 . 3 3 4 , 6 2 9
tively mild and open.
+ ~2?9
In the United States, farmers on March 1 intended to
TRADE
plant 15.7 per cent more acres in tobacco than were
harvested in 1927. This would mean a 1928 acreage of
Sales of 61 department stores were 1.9 per cent larger
1,863,200, larger than any of the three preceding years.
in February than a year ago, bringing the gain for th e
Increased acreage is indicated in every state except
first two months up to 1.1 per cent. Surprising gain s
New York and Maryland.
were also shown by wholesale groceries, dry goods,
BUILDING
Building figures for February present a somewhat con
fused situation so far as this District is concerned. On
drugs, in view of the steady decline in sales of pra c
tically all reporting wholesale lines for many m onths p a st'
Grocery sales increased 7.7 per cent over last year;
*
goods, 3.7; and drugs, 3.4 per cent.
’
y
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
7
Fourth District Business Statistics
(A ll
figure*
are
for
Fourth
District
unl ess
otherwise
Feb.
192 8
Ba nk D e b i t s (2 4 cities)
M i ll io n s o f do ll a rs
Savi ng s D e p o s i t s (en d o f m o n t h )
Oh io {41 b an k s)
T h o u s . o f d o l la rs
We ste rn P e n n s y lv a n ia (27 b a n k s )
T o t a l (68 b an k s)
C o m m e r c ia l Failures — N u m b e r s
Actual N u m b er
T h o u s . o f do ll a rs
“
“
— Liabi li tie s
Postal R e c e ip t s — 9 cities
S a l e s — Life I n su r a n c e — O h i o a nd P a.
“
— D e p t . Sto res— (61 firms)
— W h o l e s a le G r o c e r y (4 7 firms)
“ —
“
D r y G o o d s — (1 4 firms)
“
—
“
Hardware
— (1 6 firms)
“ .—
"
Drugs
— (1 4 firms)
Bui lding P e rm it s , V a l u a t i o n — 27 cities
Bui ld ing C o n t r a c t s — T o t a l . 4th D i s t r ic t
“
“
— Re s id e n ta l , 4th D is tr ic t
P r o d u c t io n — P ig I ro n , U. S.
T h o u s o f t o ns
“
— Steel I n g o t s , U. S.
— A u t o m o b i l e s , U. S.
P as sen g er Ca rs
Actual N u m b er
Trucks
“
— B i t u m i n o u s C o a l. 4th D ist.
T h ou s. o f tons
— C e m e n t : O h io , W . V a . . W r „ Pa.
“
“ bar rel s
— E l e ct ri c P o w e r : O h io , Pa., K y .
M i ll io n s o f k. w. hrs
“
— P e t r o l e u m : O h io , P a. , K y .
T h o u s . o f bar rel s
— Shoes, 4th D is tr ic t
“
“ pairs
— Tir es, U S.
“ ca si ng s
B i t u m in o u s C o a l S h i p m e n t s ( f r o m L a k e Erie p o r t s)
Iron Ore R e c e i p t s (a t L a k e Erie por t#)
*2 m o n t h s ’ av e r ag e .
"January.
* r igures Co n f id e n t ia l.
sp ec i fi ed )
Feb.
1927
Jan.-Feb.
192 8
%
Change
2,921
2,8 95
7 34 ,0 6 4
277,607
1,0 11,671
186
4 .7 2 8
3 ,1 2 0
105.92 1
20,804
6.371
2 ,3 8 8
1 ,73 7
1,7 37
16,335
37,841
15,179
2 ,9 0 0
4,0 15
67 6 .8 8 3
249,214
926,097
162
3 ,4 9 4
2,955
97 , 8 1 7
20 ,4 08
5 .9 1 7
2,30 2
1,870
1.6 79
1 3. 634
50 .8 08
15,385
2. 9 3 8
3,781
2 90 .8 3 0
32 ,5 38
14,765
978
1,166*
1 ,8 6 4 s
■
264 ,1 7 1
4 0, 5 92
19,884
865
1,15 5*
1,809*
a
4,155=
3,766*
+
0 .9
10.1
19.8
25 7
1 3. 1
1 .0
3 .0
18.5*
10.3
4 96 373
5 8, 6 42
3 0, 3 0 4
1,733
%
Change
+
6,31 1
732 .3 3 6*
272,6731
1 ,0 0 5 , 0 0 8 ’
455
10. 723
6 ,1 2 2
191.98 1
4 1 ,5 93
12.515
4 ,3 2 2
3,3 4 2
3 ,47 5
28 . 0 7 0
62.244
27 , 8 9 2
5.741
7,975
+ 8 .4
+ 11.4
+ 9 .2
+ 14.8
+ 3 5 .3
+ 5 .6
+ 8 .3
+ 1-9
+ 7 .7
+ 1 .7
— 7 .1
+ 3 .4
+ 19.8
— 25.5
— 1 .3
— 1 .3
+ 6 .2
+
—
—
+
+
+
+
+
Jan.-F eb.
1927
6 ,3 5 6
0 .7
676.3101
248 .4 5 61
924 ,76 6^
382
6 .54 3
6 .0 0 9
18 3 ,7 5 8
4 1 .1 55
12 0 3 7
4.1 6 3
3 ,6 1 7
3,5 1 4
2 7. 2 7 0
64 . 2 4 4
29,007
6 ,0 3 8
7,541
+ 8 .3
+ 9 .7
+ 8 .7
+ 19 1
+ 63 .9
+ 1 .9
+ 4 .5
+ 1.1
+ 4 .0
+ 3 .8
— 7 .6
— 11
+ 2 .9
— 3 .1
— 3 .8
— 4 .9
+ 5 .8
4 6 3 .8 2 1
79. 8 6S
41. 1 05
1,392
+ 7 .0
— 2 6.6
— 26.3
+ 24 .5
*
+ 1 6 . 4<
♦Preliminary.
Index Numbers of Trade in the Fourth Federal
Reserve District
( A v e r a g e M o n t h l y Sales f o r th e F i v e - Y e a r P e r i o d 1 91 9 - 1 9 2 3 inc.
D e p a r t m e n t Store s ( 5 0 ) * ....................
W h o l e s a le D ru g s ( 1 4 ) * ........................
W h o l e s a le D r y G o o d s ( 1 3 ) * .............
W ho l e sa le G ro c er ie s ( 4 7 ) * ..................
W h ol es a le H a r d w a r e ( 1 5 ) * ................
W h o l e s a l e S h oe s ( 5 ) * ............................
W h o l e s a le All ( 9 4 ) * .............................
Ch ain D r u g s ( 3 ) * | ..................................
Feb.
192 4
Feb.
1925
Feb.
192 6
97
107
96
83
99
61
90
96
91
102
79
73
101
55
80
93
91
104
76
72
95
60
78
98
=
100 )
Feb.
192 7
Feb.
192 8
90
106
69
67
92
63
75
93
92
110
71
75
86
61
79
86
Retail and Wholesale Trade
(1928
com pared
w it h
192 7)
Percentage
DEPARTMENT
STORES
Increase
or
Decrease
SALES
F eb.Feb.
SALES
Fir st
2 m o s.
+ 38 .0
+ 4 .5
+ 3 .6
+ 1.6
— 4 ,5
+ 1.3
— 5 .5
+ 6 .9
— 2 .9
+ 1 .9
+ 16.6
+ 2 .2
+ 2.1
+ 2 .8
— 2 .0
+ 2 .9
— 5 .7
+ 4 .6
— 3 .5
+ 1 .1
+ 17. 0 * *
+ 3 .6
+ 4 .8
+ 0 .8
— 7 ,2
— 2 .5
— 13.4
+ 2 .6
+ 0 .8
+ 0 .6 **
— 4 .3
— 10.2
— 3 .7
— 6 .4
— 3 .4
-1 3 .0
— 6 .0
— 7 .8
+ 17.0
+ 3 .8
— 4 .6
+ 2 .4
+ 23 .2
+ 8 .7
+ 5 .9
— 1 .0
+ 4 0 .5
— 11.4
+ 9 .4
+ 14.4
+ 3 6
+ 25
+ 2 9
+ 24.2
— 12 6
+ 5 .6
—
+
— 10 2
+ 4 .8
STOCKS
Feb.Feb.
(6 1 )
* N u m b e r o f f irms,
t Per in divi du al unit o pe r ate d .
Y o u n g s t o w n ......................................
O t h e r C i t i e s .......................................
W E A R I N G A P P A R E L (1 7 )
Debits To Individual Accounts
(In
4 w ee ks
e ndin g
M a r 21,
1 92 8
A kron.....................
Butler, Pa.............
C anton...................
Cincinnati.............
Cleveland..............
Columbu*..............
Connellsville, P a ..
D a yton ..................
Erie, Pa.................
Greensburg, P a .. .
Homestead, P a . ..
Lexington, K y .. . .
L im a......................
Lorain....................
M iddletow n. . .
O'l City, Pa........ ]
Pittsburgh, Pa. . .
Springfield.
Steubenville..........
T o le d o .............
W arren..................
Wheeling, W. Va .
Youngstown.........
Zanesville........* ’ ”
T o ta l............
9 2, 147
9 .2 3 4
42,9 44
389,850
710.232
157,374
3 .9 12
92 , 7 51
30,853
17,688
3 .8 3 3
20,947
14.329
4 994
11.610
12.637
842,785
20.390
1 1 , 4 38
241.615
12, 081
4 3 . 681
59.794
10,786
thousands
%
chatnge
fr o m
192 7
+
—
+
+
+
+
—
+
—
— ■
—
—
+
—
+
— ■
—
—
+
+
.—
—
—
—
of
O t h e r C i t i e s .......................................
do l la rs )
1 9 28 to
Date (D ec.
28-Mar.
21)
1927 to
Date (D ec.
29-M ar.
23)
8. 4
9, 5
0. 3
7. 1
I. 4
7. 1
22. 0
3,,1
9 . .3
15 4
4 1
21 0
12 3
7. 6
17 , 1
19 .6
19 1
17 .3
7 .3
12 .7
2 .0
0 .3
7 .4
2 .6
310,59 0
3 1 , 1 53
144,14 0
1 .3 94.450
2 ,52 2,4 99
510,565
11,806
291.03 2
99.413
62 ,4 87
11,865
9 2 ,9 02
46,9 61
16.634
3 9.585
44,749
2 ,8 5 6, 4 01
66.518
33,5 64
7 96 ,3 7 7
39 ,4 29
143,213
203,714
37 ,0 73
26 5,6 27
3 4 . 22 1
141,305
1,1 91,280
2 ,4 28. 399
507 .51 2
1 6, 0 28
28 5,1 39
105.866
6 6,4 06
12.658
95,121
44.259
16.5 07
3 2,933
49 ,3 48
3 ,2 0 0 , 3 9 6
72.928
3 2, 808
6 7 5 ,7 6 5
40.165
1 4 0 .7 9 8
2 2 2 ,6 8 2
3 7, 1 94
4 .6
9 ,8 0 7 , 1 2 0
9 ,7 1 5 . 3 4 5
%
ch a n g e
fr o m
1 9 27
+
+
+
+
+
+
___
___
___
+
+
+
___
___
+
+
+
+
16. 9
9. 0
2. 0
17. 1
3 .9
0. 6
26, 3
2, 1
6. 1
5,.9
6 .3
2, 3
6 1
0 ,8
20 .2
9 ,3
10 .7
8 ,8
2 .3
17 .8
1 .8
1 .7
8 5
0 .3
0 .9
F U R N I T U R E (49 )
C i n c i n n a t i ...........................................
C l e v e l a n d ............................................
T o l e d o ...................................................
O t h e r C i t i e s . .....................................
C H A IN STO R E *
D r u g s — D is tr ic t ( 3 ) .....................
G r o c e r i e s — D is tr ic t ( 5 ) ..............
W H O L E S A L E G R O C E R I E S (4 7 )
A k r o n ....................................................
C i n c i n n a t i ...........................................
C l e v e l a n d ............................................
P i t t s b u r g h ................................
O t h e r C i t i e s ...........
D i s t r i c t ...............
W H O L E S A L E D R Y G O O D S (1 4 )
W H O L E S A L E D R U G S (1 4 )
W H O L E S A L E H A R D W A R E (1 6 )
W H O L E S A L E S H O E S (6) . .
7 .2
8 .9
+ 16.5
+ 13.2
+ 5 .7
— 2 1
+ 2 1 .8
+ 5 .9
+ 5 .3
+ 7 .7
+ 3 .7
+ 3 .4
— 7 .1
— 2 .2
* Sales p e r i n d i v i d u a l u n i t o p e r a t e d .
** R evised.
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
—
—
—
15.6
10.7
0 .5
2 9
12.8
2 .2
2 .8
4 .0
3.8
1 .1
7 .6
13.2
—
+
0 .7
9 .4
—
1 .5
THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
8
Summary of National Business Conditions
(By the Federal Reserve Board)
Production and distribution of commodities increased further in Feb
ruary, while wholesale commodity prices remained practically unchanged.
Commercial loans of member banks showed a larger increase in February
and the first half of March than at the same season in other recent years.
PRODUCTION
Index numbers o f production o f m anufactures
and m inerals, adjusted fo r seasonal variations
(1923-1925 = 100).
Latest figures— F ebruary:
m anufactures, 109; m inerals, 103.
WHOLESALE PRICES
Production of manufactures in February, as indicated by the Federal
Reserve Board’s index, increased 3 per cent over January and was 2 per
cent larger than a year ago, while production of minerals declined slightly
and continued to be substantially smaller than last year. Factory em
ployment and payrolls showed a seasonal increase in February, but
continued at a lower level than a year ago. Output of iron and steel, au
tomobiles, and agricultural machinery has increased considerably since the
first of the year. Daily average production of steel ingots in February
was larger than in any other month since last March, and current re
ports indicate that output was sustained in the first three weeks in March.
Production of non-ferrous metals also increased in February. Activity
in the textile industries has shown little change since the first of the year.
Production of bituminous coal and crude petroleum, which decreased in
February, increased slightly in the first half of March. Building contracts
awarded were larger in February than in the corresponding month of any
previous year, reflecting chiefly a large volume of awards for residential
construction in the New York and Chicago districts. Contracts let in the
first two weeks of March were in approximately the same volume as in
the corresponding period of last year.
TRADE
Index o f U .
(1926 = 100).
S. Bureau o f L abor Statistics
Latest figu re: February, 96.4.
M ONEY 1W E S IN N EW YORK
'\ / v
r .
I
mmm Commitrcial Papw Rcrfr
_
—
ftesmnv Bank Discotm
i
Accepi'ance Rets
! ......J1
W eekly rates in N ew Y ork m oney m arket;
com m ercial paper rate on 4-to-6 m onths paper
and acceptance rate on 90-day paper.
MJJOM8 OP DOLLAR*
1
All OtherLdIDS
( Uffriy Owwitill )
Sales of wholesale firms in leading lines increased in February and were
slightly larger than a year ago, while sales of department stores, after
allowance for the customary seasonal changes, were in about the same
volume as in January and somewhat smaller than a year ago. Stocks o f
merchandise carried both by wholesale firms and by department stores
showed a seasonal increase in February.
Freight car loadings have shown somewhat more than the usual
seasonal increase since the beginning of the year, but have continued to
be in smaller volume than in the corresponding period of last year, owing
chiefly to much smaller shipments of coal. Loadings of merchandise in
less than car load lots and of miscellaneous commodities have been less
than in the corresponding period of the last two years, while loadings o f
live stock and grain products have been larger.
PRICES
The general level of wholesale commodity prices, as indicated by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics Index, remained practically unchanged in Feb
ruary at approximately 96 per cent of the 1926 average. There were de
creases in the prices of cotton, sugar, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and
rubber, as well as a seasonal decline in dairy products. Increases oc
curred in prices of grains, metals, hides and leather products, and steel.
In the first two weeks in March, prices of grains, hogs and cotton advanced,
while those of cattle and rubber showed further declines.
BANK CREDIT
its
Loam on
Securities
M EM E SER BANK (CREDIT
1I
-
.
- 1
M onthly averages of weekly figures for banks
in 101 leading cities. Latest figures are aver
age* fo r first three weekly report dates in
M arch.
From the middle of February to the middle of March the loans and
investments of member banks in leading cities increased by $2 00 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 ,
reflecting a growth in the banks' commercial loans. The banks* loans
on securities and investments showed little change for the period.
The volume of reserve bank credit outstanding increased somewhat
from February to March, chiefly in consequence of increased borrowings b y
member banks, which in part reflected further withdrawals of gold f OT
export.
During the four weeks ending March 21, conditions in the money mar
ket were firmer; the rate on prime commercial paper increased from 4 to
4 -4 *,4 per cent, and there were advances in time rates on security loans.
@FedFRASER