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The Monthly Business Review Covering financial, industrial, and agricultural conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District VOL. 6 CLEVELAND, OHIO, APRIL I, 1924 “ T O GET AN UNCLOUDED VIEW OF THE BUSINESS SITU ATIO N THESE D AYS IT IS NECESSARY TO DISTIN GUISH BETWEEN FACT AND F A N C Y ; OTHERW ISE ONE IS L IK E L Y TO LET IM AG INATIO N G E T TH E BETTER OF COM M ON SENSE. ” —ED ITORIAL FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND D. C. W ills, C hairm an of th e Board (COMPILED MARCH 22, 1924) NO. 4 THE M O N T H L Y BUS I NES S R E V I E W 2 An Editorial T O get an unclouded view of the business situation these days it is necessary to distinguish between fact and fancy; otherwise one is likely to let imagination get the better of common sense. Considered from a sentimental angle there is probably less confi dence in the forward movement o f industry than there was a month ago. Viewed from a rational standpoint, however, and a cce p tin g as trustworthy guides those factors which are not susceptible to ex ternal disturbances, the indexes o f dependable business such as record car loadings, capacity production o f iron and steel, plenty of work at good wages, the high consuming power of the country, an almost complete absence o f speculative tendencies, and sound financial conditions, justify confidence in the future. Careful observation of both sides of the situation has led to the general adoption of a middle-of-the-road course, which, in addition to being safe, makes it easier to steer clear of the rough places. So far we can see no sufficient reason to revise the statement we have frequently made in the past; namely that the business structure continues sound. Desiring to repeat this and at the same time not wishing to depend upon our judgment alone in the matter, we made a careful check of the opinions of representative business men in the Fourth District in the following manner: 1. We assumed that each business head, judging by the trend o f his business in 1923, and by the returns shown on the financial state ment for the year, formed an estimate several months ago as to where and how he would stand in March, 1924. 2. We asked each of these men if anything of sufficient importance to make them change their original estimate had actually happened. 3. The replies we received showed clearly that business now, with few exceptions, is just about the place its leaders thought it would be. Frankly, we can think of no fairer test. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 3 Agricultural Loans Slightly Higher than a Month Ago; No Outstanding Feature in City Bank Borrowings; Reserve Ratio Steady Since our last report, loans to member banks in agricultural districts have shown a slight increase. On February 20 they were $14,108,000, while on March 20 they had advanced to $15,560,000. This is a cus tomary occurrence for this season of the year arid may be attributed to various causes. The three which follow, however, are outstanding: L Quite a number of notes which are coming in are based upon the carrying of livestock. 2. A considerable volume of tobacco has not been marketed. 3. Preparations are now being made for spring work on the farms. Loans to city banks indicate no particular feature of importance at this time. Accommodations of this na ture totaled $22,440,000 on February 20 as compared with $20,827,000 on March 20, a decrease during this period o f $1,613,000. The reserve ratio of this bank on February 20 was 80.7 per cent while on March 20 the same percentage was shown. The reserve ratio o f the System on Feb ruary 20 was 81.4 per cent as compared with 81.8 per cent on March 20. The combined reports of 18 selected banks in the Fourth District on savings deposits for the month of February of this year show an increase of 1 per cent over the preceding month. When comparison is made with February, 1923, an increase o f 12.2 per cent is shown. A recent report compiled by R. G. Dun & Company shows that 135 commercial failures occurred in this District in the month of February as again 175 dur ing January, a drop of 40, or 22.9 per cent. Liabilities for February totaled $2,824,143 as compared with $6,160,933 for the preceding month, a decline o f $3,336,790, or 54.2 per cent. Restrained Buying and High Production Feature Iron and Steel Industry; Heavy Railroad Buying One Striking Exception to Cautious Attitude; Buoyancy of Prices Lacking Marked conservatism as to obligating themselves against expected requirements very far in the future has appeared in recent weeks so broadly among iron and steel buyers that it has become the conspicuous feature o f market conditions. At the same time ship ments by the mills are running at a high rate and this is requiring a pitch o f production that today is closely approximating the record peak of all time. These two seemingly opposing factors, restrained buy ing and high production, apparently signify very clearly the tremendous scale of present consumption, since all indications point to a condition o f relatively small stocks in the hands of consumers. It may be said that the gap between producer and consumer has been abnormally narrowed under present conditions and in this situation the efficiency of the rail roads by their dispatch of delivery furnishes a major factor. It is pointed out that present operating and delivery conditions in iron ami steel are free of any of the retarding factors which so often have been present in the past, such as car shortages or con gestion, labor shortages or disturbances, the latter either within the industry or in closely related fields such as coal, etc. Under present conditions, therefore, production and shipments of steel, it is indicated, register very sensitively the underlying position of gen eral consumption. As an index to the rather extraordinary relation ship of present orders and production, the unfilled ton nage of the United States Steel Corporation at the end of February was only 18 per cent above the low point of the extreme depression year o f 1921 when output for the steel industry was at the lowest relative stage in history. Today, the Steel Corporation is operating around 96 per cent of capacity which vir tually approximates the maximum possible rate. Railroad and building demands continue to provide large new requirements for steel and are the two chief factors in the visible demand. Railroad orders espe cially offer a striking exception to the cautious spirit displayed by steel buyers. Awards o f cars and locomo tives have been maintained at a high rate. During the year to date the railroads have placed orders for approximately 75,000 cars which compares with 63,000 cars for the entire first quarter of 1923 when the equipment market was very active. Febru ary car orders totaled 41,346, the largest of any single month excepting March, 1923, since 1918 when the wholesale purchases by the government were made un der federal control. The March, 1923, total was 42,500. During March to date car and locomotive orders have shown no signs of diminution from the recent marked expansion and a number of important new inquiries have been appearing. Building work, as measured by contracts for struc tural steel, is sustained on a large scale. February awards for the country are reported as approximately 189,800 tons or 73 per cent of shop capacity, compared with 184,600 tons or 71 per cent o f capacity in January. Automobile production is beginning to taper off as various builders are nearing the completion of their stocking schedules in anticipation of the spring market. Future conditions in this industry depend upon the magnitude of the spring market which is yet to develop. Export demand for iron and steel has been running in good volume. With the leading producer it has been averaging 8,000 tons daily or about 15 per cent of total capacity. Iron and steel production has been rapidly approach ing the historical high point. The daily average of steel ingot output in February represented 96 per cent THE 4 MONTHLY BUSINESS of the high record rate of last April and a gain of 33 per cent since December. On the February basis, the country was making steel ingots at the annual rate of 47,030,000 tons compared with a rate of 41,460,000 tons in January and 35,370,000 tons in De cember. Pig iron production in February, as compiled by Iron Trade Review, did not make quite as good a show ing as steel ingots which is normally the case. The average daily production of pig iron in February rep resented 85 per cent of the record rate last May. In February the country was making pig iron at the rate of over 38,500,000 tons annually. Furnaces in REVIEW blast at the end o f February had risen to 262, a gain of 14 over January and 31 over December. ' Buoyancy of prices is lacking in both finished steel and pig iron reflecting both the check on buyine and the general ease with which wants are beinl supplied by the rnills and furnaces. Within a limited range, prices are irregular although there is no marked softening tendency. These facts are well displayed bv Iron Trade Review composite of fourteen leading iron and steel products. For the week ending March 19 this average stood at $43.25 compared with $43.53 one month previously and $43.35 on the corresponding date in January. Oil Market Checked Somewhat by Cold Weather; Crude Oil Market Strong; Producers Enlarging Drilling Operations Persistent cold weather throughout the past month has acted to check somewhat the improved sentiment that was apparent in the oil market a month ago. Motoring has been at a comparatively low level dur ing the month and the retail sales of gasoline have suffered accordingly. For this reason, jobbers whose tanks were well filled a month ago have not had oc casion to come into the market, with the result that the refiners have found a slow market for their motor fuel. Heavy buying of gasoline for export, however, has had a sufficient influence to prevent a real slump. While retail sales of gasoline have lagged somewhat, they have not fallen sufficiently to bring about any general reduction in the tank wagon or service station prices. The crude oil market has remained strong, being marked by increases in the posted prices of mid continent and most of the other crudes. National Petroleum News investigations, however, show that there is probably less premium paying for crude by the independent refiners than was the case a month ago. The principal reason for the strong crude market is found in the fact that January production of crude oil in the United States, for the first time in many months, fell below consumptive demand. The total daily average indicated consumption in January, including domestic and export demand, was 2,071,419 barrels. The total daily domestic production averaged 1,817,871 barrels a day. The total new supply of crude (do mestic production and imported crude) averaged 2 ,021,193 barrels a day, causing a draft on stocks of some 50,000 barrels a day to make up the deficit. Drilling operations are increasing somewhat and in dications are for further expansion with the opening of spring. Many pipe line construction projects in dicate activity during the spring and summer in the producing fields. In spite o f the slowness of the present market, the refiners are looking forward to a prosperous sum mer, believing that heavy buying will start with the coming of favorable motoring weather. Export demand has held up fairly well during the month, although unfavorable foreign exchange has been a discouragement to heavy buying. A report by the petroleum economist of the Bureau of Mines states that gasoline production during Tann ary attained a new high record of 695,322,500 <«,i Ions, a daily average of 22,429,758 gallons, which shows an increase in the daily average over that f the preceding month amounting to 1,165,997 g a llo p or 5.5 per cent, and an increase of H .5 per cent " f ’ the rate a year ago. Imports during January were 19 309,197 gallons, a decrease of appoximately 6,000 OOrt gallons from the December imports. The new ply (production plus imports) was 714,631697 ~ T Ions, a daily average o f 23,052,635 gallons, and an ini crease of 12.1 per cent over last year’ s figures. Gasoline stocks on January 31 were 1 202 547 gallons, an increase of 127,647,740 gallons during th i month which represents the excess o f supply over d mand during this period. This increase in stocks com pares with the increase of about 119,000,000 eall during January, 1923. ’ ’ ° ns The output of kerosene in January was 217 7 6 7 q ? i gallons, a decrease of about 17,000,000 gallons fWT the December production. Exports decreased about * 500,000 gallons, amounting to 64,762,389 gallons Th~ domestic demand increased slightly to 122 (Mn ^ gallons and about 31,000,000 gallons were addeH stocks which amounted to 314,181,465 gallons th° end of January. tne The production of gas and fuel oils was 1,062 892 IQ' gallons, a slight decrease from the December’ out^ * Imports declined over 7,000,000 gallons amount^ to 36,471,249 gallons. Exports were 109,908 000 **Ti* Ions, a decrease of 40,000,000 gallons from the Dece ' ber figures. The domestic demand was 9 7 7 143 7* ?.' gallons, an increase of about 25,000,000 gallons over’ December demand. About 12,000,000 gallons w* added to stocks which were 1,527,346,622 gallon* the end of the month. on Lubricants showed a slight decrease in productm in January, the output amounting to 94,534 650 1^1 Ions. Exports were 25,175,405 gallons, a decrease r 8,000,000 gallons from December exports. DomeE£ demand was 67,391,215 gallons, an increase o f Ia 000,000 gallons or 26.9 per cent over figures for th preceding month. Stocks of lubricants were 244 755 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS 997 gallons, an increase of 2,000,000 gallons during the month. There were 247 refineries reported to the Bureau of Mines as operating during January at 77.2 per cent of their aggregate daily crude oil capacity oi 2,142,- REVIEW 5 222 barrels, running to stills a daily average of 1,653,025 barrels of both foreign and domestic crude oils. This was almost exactly the same rate of operation as in December but an increase of 9.4 per cent as compared with operations a year ago. Traffic Grows as Year Progresses; Car Surplus Represents Considerable Margin of Safety An outstanding feature of the business situation at this time is the marked increase in traffic together with the quick and efficient deliveries which the roads are making. During the week ending March 1, 945,049 cars o f revenue freight were loaded, the highest point ever reached at this season of the year. For the previous week loadings dropped to 845,898 cars as compared with 935,109 cars for the week ending February 16, due to the observance of Washington’s birthday on February 22. Loadings from January 1 through March 1 totaled 7,924,617 cars as against 7,654,218 cars for the same period last year and 6,616,628 cars for the correspond ing period in 1922. The car supply continues to be good. The average daily surplus for the week ending February 29 was 134,273 cars as compared with 125,177 cars in the preceding week. The figure for February represents a reduction in the total surplus since January o f about 100,000 cars but still shows a considerable margin o f safety. Domestic shipments of locomotives during February total 92 as compared with 147 for the previous month and 305 for December, 1923. For the month of February last year domestic shipments totaled 196. Unfilled orders at the end of February totaled 466 (domestic) and 33 (foreign) as against 344 (do mestic) and 32 (foreign) at the end of January. Reports given out at the last meeting o f the Great Lakes Shippers Regional Advisory Board, held in Grand Rapids February 19, indicate a probably heavier traffic movement during the next sixty days than was the case a year ago, and this same condition seems to exist in other parts of the eastern section o f the country, for the Advisory Board for the Middle Atlantic States predicts an increase this year as com pared with last of about 10 per cent. Automobile Makers Push Production; Inquiries for Trucks Numerous But Orders Difficult to Close; Exports Make Auspicious Start in 1924 The automobile industry, under the stimulus of ad vancing sales and the efforts of manufacturers to pro vide for the anticipated spring and summer demand, is moving at a rapid pace. Plant schedules have been enlarged with the result that February output showed a decided increase over that of January, and was far in advance of February a year ago. Prac tically all the plants in this District have increased their working forces since the first of the year. Truck manufacturers tell us that orders during Feb ruary were very good but that so far this month they are hardly living up to expectations. They are at a loss to account for this, for general conditions are good and their branches throughout the country without exception report that there never was a time when the inquiry for trucks was greater. The dif ficulty is to get the orders closed. However, it is be lieved that at least a part of this hesitancy may be accounted for by the fact that there are more trucks on hand for immediate delivery than there were a year ago and consequently the customers are slower in anticipating their requirements. February output, as shown by the Department of Commerce figures, was considerably above that of the preceding month. Shipments o f automotive products to foreign coun tries in 1920 broke all records, but recent figures com piled by the Department of Commerce show that the present year is making an even more auspicious be ginning. In January the total value of automotive exports from the United States was $18,465,202 as against $16,892,651 in January, 1920, an increase of 9.3 per cent. As compared with $10,787,344 in January, Every class of cars showed a large increase but leadership was taken by those valued tip to $500, which advanced from 2,099 in January, 1923, to 4,734 in January, 1924. Exports of trucks were larger with heavy and high priced machines showing the principal advances, TruAs up to one ton increased from 1,095 in January, 1923, to 1,191 in January, 1924, while those ranging in size from^ one to two and one-half increased from 205 to 355. Trucks over two tons increased from 52 to 145. Australia is the chief market, taking three times as many in January, 1924, as in January, 1923. Argentine took second place in January. Japan stood first in the ^purchase of trucks, her imports increasing from 10 in January, 1923, to 1,245 in January, 1924. This increase which is due to the demand resulting from the destruction o f vehicles in the earthquake, and which has continued since September of last year, is the most noteworthy item in January export statistics. Al though the truck shipments to Japan in December dropped to 841 from the high mark of 1,859 in No vember, the January shipments brought them up a^ain to a high point. THE 6 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Automobile Production The Department of Commerce announces February production of automobiles, based on figures received from 186 manufacturers, 96 making passenger cars and 119 making trucks (29 making both passenger cars and trucks). Data for earlier months include 12 additional manufacturers, now out of business, while February data fo r 9 small firms were not received in time for inclusion in this report. Figures on truck production also include fire apparatus and street sweepers. NUMBER OF MACHINES 1922 81,696 109,171 152,962 197,224 232,462 263,053 225,086 249,492 187,694 217,566 215,352 208,010 Total ........ * Revised 2,339,768 Passenger Cars 1923 1924 223,819 *287,302 254773 336.363 319,770 344,639 350,410 337,362 297,330 314,373 298,911 335,023 284,923 *275,439 3,636,772 22,640 24,097 26,298 22,046 24,692 19,462 21,795 21,949 20,354 Trucks 1923 19,720 22,161 35,260 38,056 43,678 41,145 30,663 30,829 28,638 30,166 28,070 *27,743 246,281 376,129 1922 9,576 13,350 20,022 1924 * 28,846 31,072 Men’s Clothing Industry Awaits Opening of Spring Retail Season; Consumers9 Objections to High Prices Unchanged With the advent of warm weather there is likely to be a rapid change for the better in the condition of the clothing industries. A leading manufacturer of men’s clothing in this District reports that retail dealers had a rather dull fall season resulting in an accumulation of stocks, but that these were substantially reduced during the January and February sales. At present the men's clothing industry is marking time while awaiting the opening of the spring retail season and the showing of new fall lines by manufacturers during March. Consumers’ resistance to high prices remains un changed in the women's clothing trade. Because of the excessive costs of retail distribution, some manu facturers of women's garments are entering the re tail field and actively competing for the consumers’ business at the sacrifice of their wholesale trade. One large local manufacturer says that, on the basis of their own experience, the women’s clothing industry as a whole is now operating on a sound basis and at a profit, relying more on quantity production than on high prices for gainful results. A manufacturer of textile fabrics in this District notes a slight falling off in production recently, but reports that business in his line is on a more substantial footing than it was six months ago. Clothing man» facturers are, as a rule, ordering fabrics in sm' n quantities as needed. A recent survey of 2 000 ma facturers of clothing showed an average o f 30 cent less stock on hand this year than last. ^>er There appears to be no consensus among maniifa^ turers o f knit underwear in this District regardin ' the outlook for business this spring. One p r o d u c t reports that retailers are carrying over large stock* due to the mild winter, and that there is no incen« for buying today. It is possible, however that spring re-order season may improve conditions som what because spring purchases have been very r servative and both the jobber and the retailer need goods when warm weather comes. Another ma facturer, whose business is not seriously affected the wide fluctuations that have occurred in the cotton market, anticipates a good year. There has a steady decline in the cotton market and the tende ° of buyers of knit goods is to hold off purcha*?™ until there is a rising market. That time has yet come. not Shoe Manufacturers Report “ Better Business” ; Orders Small But Numerous • Surplus of Workers In the past nine weeks the shoe industry in the present a surplus of labor is reported, which enable rt, _____T~\ ’» i_________! _ 1 _ inormfn/'fiii'ore fA fining, --f V i a i t * n ____ i* • . ^ lIlC Fourth District has been showing a steadyr o improvemanufacturers to enlarge their operations without cTfR_ liffiment. There has been a very material increase in pro- culty. The industry in general continues to operate1 on duction and most of the plants now have sufficient busi- small orders. These are sufficiently numerous to ness to keep them operating at a fair rale of speed. At up a good total volume but at the "same time "they THE MONTHLY BUSINESS the effect of keeping the factories closely dependent on the current bookings of their sales forces. Final figures compiled by the United States Bureau of the Census on boot and shoe production in the Fourth Federal Reserve District for the month of January show that the output of 42 establishments re porting was 11.9 per cent more than that of the pre ceding month. Production of 1,119 establishments in the United States was 26,397,808 pairs as compared with 22,676,436 pairs for December, or an increase for the month of 16.4 per cent. According to data compiled by the Department of Commerce, based upon reports received from 4,668 manufacturers and dealers, the total number o f cattle hides held in stock on January 31, 1924, by packers and butchers, tanners, dealers, and importers (or in tran sit to them) amounted to 4,938,926, as compared with 5,086,286 on December 31, 1923, and with 6,384,131 on REVIEW 7 January 31, 1923. The stocks, o f calf and kip skins amounted to 2,568,605 on January 31, 1924, as com pared with 2,935,094 on December 31, 1923, and 4,086,044 on January 31 o f last year. Goat and kid skins numbered 8.903,835 on January 31, 1924 ; 9,926,128 on December 31, 1923; and 8,952,825 on Janu ary 31, 1923. The stocks of sheep and lamb skins on January 31, 1924, amounted to 6,348,865; on Decem ber 31, 1923, to 7,400,296; and on January 31 o f last year, to 9,188,283. The total stocks of sole leather (cattle) reported by tanners, dealers, and manufacturers using the leather as a material, amounted to 9,642,850 backs, bends, and sides on January 31, 1924, the corresponding figures for December 31, 1923, being 10,043,085, and for Janu ary 31, 1923, 9,543,580. The production o f sole leather during January, 1924, amounted to 1,373,255 pieces (backs, bends, and sides), and the stocks in process at the end o f the month to 5,216,341 pieces. Building and Wall Paper Business Advances; Demand in Box Board Industry Fails to Meet Expectations According to latest available information the paper in dustry has shown little change during the past month. There has been some improvement in the demand for fine papers, however. Building and wall papers have also been moving fairly steadily, although the de mand for wall papers has been less active than was anticipated. The paper box board industry which is usually quite active at this season o f the year is not living up to expectations. This is particularly true o f the Cincinnati plants where most o f the manufacturers have but a limited amount o f advance business booked and where operations are below normal. The lateness o f die Eastern season is believed to be partly responsible for this situation. Cleveland box board makers report more satisfac tory conditions and are anticipating even better busi ness as die spring season advances. A t present the principal demand is coming from the food and garment manufacturers. Delivery of 1923 Burley Tobacco Progresses Rapidly; Part of 1922 Crop Still on Hand; Steps Taken to Establish Agricultural Bank Delivery o f the balance o f the 1923 crop o f Burley tobacco by the growers progressed rapidly during the first half of March. The Kentucky Commissioner of A g riculture reports that about 17 million pounds o f Burley were sold over the floors of the independent warehouses in that state in February at an average price o f ap proximately 22 cents a pound. No recent sales have been announced by the Burley Tobacco Growers Co operative Association at the time of this writing. The Association still has on hand some of the 1922 crop and final payments for that year cannot be made to the members until all of this tobacco has been sold. Two payments have been made to the members on the 1922 crop; one in the nature of an advance at the time of delivery and the other a second payment made in the spring o f 1923. The board of directors o f the Association at the March meeting voted to make a third payment on the crop this spring. The Association announced early in March that over 15 million dollars had been paid out as advances to growers on delivery of the 1923 crop. Since that time a large amount o f tobacco has been delivered so the total o f the advances to date is considerably larger than the above figure. The board of directors also voted to steps to establish an agricultural bank, the purpose of whidi will be to lend money to members on the basis o f their participation certificates. These certificates indicate the amount and grade o f tobacco delivered and are issued to the growers at the time they deliver their tobacco. With reference to the distributing phase, the volume o f cigar business which, following the rush o f the holiday season fell off during January, is again some what larger. Cigarette business is growing rapidly, but both jobbers and retailers are being affected by price cutting which is reported to be quite general. Construction Again Makes Rapid Strides; Upward Trend in Material Prices; Demand for Apartment and Dwelling Houses After a decline last month due largely to unusually Fourth District is again making rapid strides forward, cold weather which made outdoor construction work practically impossible, the building industry in the start new ones. THE 8 MONTHLY BUSINESS Prices o f building materials are showing an upward trend while labor rates and conditions remain practically unchanged. Up to this time there are practically no indications of the bonus payments which became a general practice a year ago. Dealers report a steadily growing demand for materials. A rather dose race with the opening months of 1923 is being run by the corresponding period this year in Geveland as indicated by building statistics compiled by the Builders Exchange. Figures for the period from January 1 to March 15, 1923, showed a total valuation o f permits issued o f $11,568,900, while the corresponding period in 1924 indicates a total of $11,415,325. In making this comparison it is to be remembered that 1923 was the greatest building year thus far in the city's history. The difference in the figures for the period from March 1 to 15 in the two years was only $25,000 in a total o f over two and a half million dollars in val uation. While it may be true, as claimed by certain experts on building conditions, that Geveland is overbuilt in certain lines, including theaters, hotels, and office REVIEW buildings, there is still a remarkable demand for single houses and apartments. It is evident that the city is entering upon an unusual era in the last mentioned class, the number o f apartment houses for which per mits were issued fo r January and February this w a r being 52 as compared with 33 fo r the first two months of last year. The ratio 0f increase in percentage o f dwellings is shown in similar figures the ratin 1923 being well sustained. °r February building totals for the entire country were unusually large. T h e total value of building permitted for in February at 166 cities is reported to Bradstr***>~ as $270,045,981, as compared with $217,337774 at th* identical cities in January and $221,753,727 in Feb ruary a year ago. There is here shown a gain o f 24 ? per cent over January and of 21.7 per cent over Feb* ruary of last year. New York City showed the largest quantitative gain over February, 19Z3, while increases were also recr istered by New England, Middle Atlantic, and F ar" Western cities. In the same comparison, however tho«Z in the Central Western, Northwestern Sotithwp-_tn.„ and Southern sections show decreases. tern. Lumber Industry Begins to Feel Effects of Spring Building; Price Trend Upward According to reports received by the National Lum ber Manufacturers’ Association from 389 of the larger commercial sawmills of the country, lumber produc tion during the first ten weeks o f this year exceeded that of the corresponding period of last year by 135,667,723 feet, or 6.6 per cent. Shipments during the same period of this year were 197,109,857 feet, or 8 per cent less, and orders were 344,868,234 feet or 13 per cent less than last year. For the week ended March 8, production was slightly greater (0.9 per cent) than for the corresponding week of 1923, while both shipments and orders were subtantially less. Reports received from selected lumber manufacturers in this District indicate that their business has held up fairly well throughout the winter in spite of building activity. It is believed that there very large volume of new building this snrinopecially in the industrial field. The trend o f bmidi«S" material prices is again upward, as shown both bv th f Aberthaw Company s and the United States T W . of Labor Statistics’ indexes. The general fe* 1^ U among lumber producers in regard to the business o w look this spnng is decidedly optimistic. Retail lumber dealers’ stocks are not generally Ure* They are reported to have plenty of orders o n l h f f r books for delivery as soon as the weather permits resumption of outdoor contruction. They are hn ever, buying cautiously at present. ’ Brick Makers Optimistic; Production Heavier; Ohio Receives Largest Shipments of Paving Brick Indications point to good business in the common brick industry. With the exception of several sec tions o f the country where commercial business is largely dependent upon the agricultural interests and where the farmers have not yet fully recovered, reirts coming into the office of the Common Brick anufacturers Association reflect an optimistic feel ing on the part o f the manufacturers. Evidence o f the makers’ confidence in their product and of their belief in its future was seen at the annual meeting o f the Association which was held at Los An geles, February 11 to 16. Every state in the union was represented. Out of nearly 400 manufacturers G who were in attendance at the business sessions, more than 2o0 traveled from sis to seven thousand milnc From the standpoint of the number present the * terest shown, and results accomplished, the’ m e e ti^ was reported very satisfactory. With reference to importations, heavy shipments nt foreign made brick continue. American producers ar finding that it is practially impossible to meet this com petition on account of the comparatively low price f which the imported brick can be sold* however cording to the Association the artisans and general building public are showing a preference for the honwl product. c THE MONTHLY BUSINESS The report of the Common Brick Manufacturers As sociation as of February 1, 1924, with comparative figures for the preceding month is as follows: Feb. 1 Jan. 1 1924 No. of Firms Reporting .. 114 120 Plants Closed D o w n .......... 45 30 Burned Brick on H and... 306,503.000 313.696,000 Unbumed Brick on H and.. 38,349,000 55,646,000 Brick Moved from Yard During Month .............. 45,762,000 66,199,000 Orders on Books .............. 272,403,000 266,914,000 The following figures showing production, stocks, unfilled orders, and shipments of face brick for 32 identical plants during February, 1924, as compared with January 1924, and February, 1923, have been com piled by the American Face Brick Association. The ngures do not include commons or culls. Feb. Tan. Feb. 1924 i924 1923 Production ............ 19,284,000 17,366,000 16,012,000 Stocks ....................67,997,000 61,575,000 70,751,000 Unfilled Orders .. .40,524.000 33,592,000 51,296,000 Shipments ............ 15,363.000 11,231,000 13,660,000 REVIEW 9 That highway departments and municipalities are awarding contracts for street and highway paving early in the season is indicated by the sharp increase in un filled orders for vitrified paving brick during the month o f February.1924 The February statistical report submitted to the De partment of Commerce by the National Paving Brick Manufacturers Association, shows an increase in un filled orders in the industry for number 1 pavers o f 10 million to a total of 86,691,000. Unfilled orders in number 2 and off-grade pavers increased 7J4 million to a total of 19,884,000. An increase in production during February o f 1,- 200,000 brick is also shown; also that stock on hand was in excess of the unfilled orders. Shipments during February showed a falling off o f approximately 3 million to a total of 10,100,000 due to tne unseasonable weather prevailing over practically all sections of the country. The largest shipments were made into the state o f Ohio during the month. Shipments to the states o f Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Illinois follow in the order named. Cement Shipments Give Evidence of Early Spring Demand; Stocks Highest on Record Production of portland cement in February was 8,588.000 barrels, an increase of 378,000 barrels over the same month last year, according to a recent bulletin issued by the United States Geological Survey. When comparison is made with the preceding month, however, a decline is shown, for January production totaled 8.788.000 barrels. Shipments for February showed an upward trend as compared with January, an encouraging evidence of early spring demand. February shipments were 5,933,000 barrels as against 5,210,000 barrels for Jan uary. Stocks of finished cement at the end o f January, total 14,155,000 barrels while at the end of February they had increased to 16,811,000 barrels, the highest ac cumulation of cement stocks on record. Figures on Coal Production indicate Output Much Greater Than Consumption; Retail Business Slows Down The output of bituminous coal during the coal year ended March 8, 1924, exceeded that of the correspond ing period of 1923 by 116,742,000 tons, representing an increase of 29.5 per cent, according to estimates made by the United States Geological Survey. The daily average production during the coal year 1923-24 was 30 per cent greater than that for the year 1922-23. The past year was one of practically uninterrupted accumulation of reserve stocks in consumers* hands. A joint estimate made by the Bureau of the Census and the Ceological Survey showed that commercial stocks of bituminous coal totaled 62 million tons on January 1, 1924, as compared with a total of 36 million tons on January 1, 1923. Consumers’ stocks at the be ginning of this year were 72 per cent larger than in 1923, 29 per cent larger than in 1922, and 35 per cent larger than in 1921. These figures do not include coal in the bins of householders, nor bunker coal of steamships, nor the tonnage on the lake docks, which item is classed as coal in transit. The Retail Coalman estimates that there are approximately 100,000,000 tons of coal above ground at the present time. It is evident therefore, that coal production is now vastly greater than consumption. While the three year wage agreement covering union mines in the central competitive field is viewed by government officials as a stabilizing influence in the coal mining industry, it does, nevertheless, place the operators o f unionized mines at a disadvantage in their competition with non-union operators. It is re ported that business in the Pittsburgh district is very slow and that there are indications that more mines will be closing down soon. Covering the retail coal trade, a large distributor in this District says, “ Our business is falling off slightly due to the tendency o f people to buy just enough coal to tide them over until spring. Our steam business is still very brisk. We are going to make an attempt to get our domestic customers to buy their coal during the summer months when we believe that domestic coal will reach its lowest price.” This policy appears to us to be an excellent one for all retail coal dealers to adopt. It would not only accelerate the flow of coal from the mines to ultimate consumers, but it would also have a tendency to keep prices from falling too low. 10 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Demand for Tires Reported to be Growing; Preference Shown for Standard M akes; Mechanical Lines Active In spite of the growing demand for tires, rubber manufacturers are watching their production programs carefully. From present indications it would appear that producers desire to prevent a recurrence of the overproduction feature which occurred last year. Busi ness is good and is showing further improvement with the approach of pleasant driving weather. While the industry is not on as profitable basis as the manufacturers would like to see it, they realize that if prevailing conditions are to be met successfully production must be carried on at the lowest possible cost and at the same time the quality of their product must be upheld. The increased production per em ploye in the Akron plants would indicate that this policy is being generally followed. This close gross profit has naturally narrowed the margin for the manufacturer of the cheaper grades of tires so that he does not have so large a spread of discount for the dealer as formerly, and there is, therefore, less incentive to purchase unknown brands. It is authoritatively reported that the dealer is rapidly drifting back to standard makes, which reduces sales resistance. Manufacturers report a growing demand for balloon tires. This rather sudden demand, however, has created considerable confusion in the dealers* mind, making them uncertain as to the kind o f stock to order. The result is that they are buying only in small quantities. It is pointed out by some rubber men who are in close touch with prevailing conditions that the higher prices quoted on balloon tires and the confusion over rim sizes will counteract the new popularity to some extent In the mechanical rubber gooas line business is gen erally good. There is a steady demand for this kind of product and the prices obtained are quite satisfactory In some instances, however, particularly in the hard rubber battery box line some of the manufacturers have recently reduced prices. According to the latest information at hand there is still sufficient labor in Akron to take care of production requirements. Farm Implement Men Hopeful But Report Spotted Conditions Much in Evidence; Export Trade Grows Reports from farm implement manufacturers in this District indicate a continuation of the spotted con ditions which have existed for many months past. Spring operations on the farms, however, are resulting in some substantial orders and, as is customary at this season of the year, some of the makers are expanding operations. Trade prospects as a whole appear to be much better than they were at this time a year ago but no one is looking forward to a normal volume. At present those states which have diversified farm ing interests are supplying the most buyers. In the past 18 months, according to a report printed in Iron Trade Review, some implement makers have sold more machines in the state of New York than in the entire wheat belt. According to a late report o f the Department o f Commerce the value of agricultural implements ex ported from the United States in January increased $4,369,386, compared with $3,336,188 in Decemhei? and with $2,844,284 in January, 1923. This is almost three times that for January, 1922, when exports were almost at the lowest point reached during the period o f depression. THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 11 STATEMENT O F CONDITION FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CLEVELAND March 19 1924 RESOURCES Gold held exclusively against F. R. N otes..................... ................ Gold settlement fund with F. R. Board.................................. ................ Gold and gold certificates held by bank.................................. 208,819,000 75,868,000 ................ 297,183,000 March 21 1923 $206,889,000 2,938,000 209,827,000 59,848,000 13,159,000 282,834,000 8,086,000 TOTAL RESERVES................................ ................ 305,642,000 290,920,000 Non-reserve cash........................................................................ Bills discounted: Secured by U. S. Government obligations....................................... ................ 16,305,000 20,569,000 21,276,000 21,212,000 42,488,000 44,519,000 U. S. Government securities: Bonds and Treasury Notes............................................... .................. .................. Total U. S. Government securities........................ .................. 22,444,000 5,548,000 27,992,000 12,355,000 19,271,000 31,626,000 3,839,000 TOTAL EARNING ASSETS.............. 118,633,000 Uncollected items......................................................................................... Bank premises........................................................................... .................. All other resources.................................................................... 65,008,000 9,117,000 303,000 65,079,000 7,866,000 631,000 TOTAL RESOURCES........... .................. 474,624,000 486,968,000 .................. 220,755,000 224,874,000 .................. .................. .................. 158,436,000 254,000 1,096,000 157,589,000 10,373,000 984,000 TOTAL DEPOSITS................................ .................. 159,786,000 168,946,000 .................. .................. .................. .................. 56,821,000 12,482,000 23,691,000 1,089,000 56,573,000 11,974,000 23,495,000 1, 106,000 .................. ?4 74,624,000 $486,968,000 LIABILITIES F. R. notes in actual circulation............................................ Deposits: Member Banks-Reserve account.................................... Government...................................................................... Other deposits................................................................... Deferred availability items..................................................... Capital paid in........................................................................ Surplus....................................................................................... All other liabilities.......................................... ... TOTAL LIABILITIES R atio of total reserves to deposit and F. R. note liabilities com bin ed = 80.3% on M arch 19, 1924, as com pared w ith 73.9% on M arch 21, 1923. THE 12 MONTHLY BUSINESS R E V I E W Comparative Statement of Selected Member Banks in Fourth District Loans and Discounts secured by U. S. Govern ment obligations.............................................. Loans and Discounts secured by other stocks and bonds................................................................. Loans and Discounts, all other............................. U. S. Pre-War Bonds............................................. U. S. Liberty Bonds............................................... U. S. Treasury Bonds............................................. U. S. Treasury Notes............................................. U. S. Certificates of Indebtedness........................ Other Bonds, Stocks, and Securities.................... Total Loans, Discounts, and Investments.......... Reserve with Federal Reserve Bank.................... Cash in Vault.......................................................... Net Demand Deposits........................................... Time Deposits.......................................................... Government Deposits............................................. Total Resources on date of this report................ Mar. 12, 1924 (79 Banks) Feb. 13,1924 (79 Banks) $24,174,000 225.126.000 399.590.000 404,437,000 686.798.000 698,474,000 48.274.000 48,302,000 109.078.000 109,860,000 6,160,000 5,217,000 56.072.000 55,066,000 6,049,000 6,160,000 304.173.000 308,604,000 1,660,294,000 1.641.320.000 115.997.000 108,878,000 30.936.000 30,034,000 899.190.000 896,261,000 616.894.000 626,705,000 17,042,000 17.210.000 2,114,660,000 2.126.131.000 Increase Decrease $ . . . . ........ 3952,000 4,847,000 11,676,000 28,000 782,000 943,000 1,006,000 .. 111,000 4,431,000 18,974,000 .. 7.119.000 902,000 2.929.000 9,811,000 168'000 11,471,000 .. Building Operations for Month of Februaryf 1924-1923 Permits Issued New Construction Alterations 1924 1923 1924 1923 96 20 35 155 Akron.......... 87 40 27 126 Canton........ 152 231 185 185 Cincinnati . . 442 477 517 615 Cleveland*. . 98 72 247 244 Columbus.. . 59 111 37 75 Dayton........ 16 20 45 38 Erie.............. 24 20 10 13 Lexington... 86 250 94 327 Pittsburgh. . 8 18 10 33 Springfield... 82 100 Toledo......... 153 139 51 53 26 22 Wheeling.... 92 50 12 Youngstown. 18 Valuation New Construction Alterations Increase or Decrease 1924 1924 1923 1923 Amount Per Cent $ 28,560 $ 394,846 $ 561,401 $ 11,285 5 — 149,280 — 26 1 807,790 1,007,493 28,025 22,340 -1 9 4 ,0 1 8 — 18.8 1,671,175 158,625 1,145,145 503,325 — 870,730 — 40.0 5,410,242 5,627,467 638,550 724,550 — 303,225 — 4 .8 1,146,765 890,525 92,875 109,735 — 273,100 — 21 7 49,167 483,064 204,319 95,047 — 324,625 — 56.2 19,828 85,250 68,815 52,895 — 16,632 — 13.7 14,525 18,235 40,985 8,200 36,495 160.6 1,590,524 179,458 1,954,548 207,720 335,762 18.7 31,500 6,650 28,325 11,250 — 7,775 — 18.2 772,700 126,995 574,935 145,715 — 216,485 — 23.6 345,940 154,870 20,084 34,250 176,904 93.5 119,990 301,180 19,200 18,200 182,190 131.8 T ota l... 2,066 1,916 1,082 1,079 $12,184,030 $13,250,289 $1,386,252 $1,944,512$— 1,624,519 — 10~7 ‘ Includes figures for East Cleveland, Lakewood, Cleveland Heights, and Shaker Heights. Department Store Sales (1) (3) (2) Percentage o f Increase or Decrease Comparison o f net sales with those of corresponding period last year No. of Reports Akron.............. Canton............ Cincinnati....... Cleveland........ Columbus....... Pittsburgh. . . . Toledo............. Youngstown... District............ U. S. Average.. 4 3 9 5 5 7 4 3 45* A February 13.8 21.4 22.9 14.2 15.1 15.7 18.2 26.7 16.9 B Jan. 1 to Feb. 29 7.6 A February 1923 17.7 B January 1924 8.1 6.6 2.5 7.8 12.1 6. 2 5.5 17.3 17.9 12.6 : five reports from other cities. Stocks at end o f month com pared with 16.7 9.4 9.1 12.7 11.0 21.5 4.2 11.3 — 4.2 11.1 8.8 12.1 10.7 12.2 8.4 12.6 9.8 6. 0 8.9 „ (4) Percentage of Percentage of average stocks o u t s t a n d i n g at end o f each orders at end month from o f F e b r u a r y January 1 to 1924, to total February 29 purchase* to av e r a dunng calendar monthly sa year 1923 over 9 a „ period 431.8 726.6 438.5 396.3 407.8 360.4 408.0 260.7 392.2 412.8 10.6 10.0 7.9 16.0 14.7 6.9 6.4 10.8 7.6 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 13 Debits to Individual Accounts Increase or Decrease Week Ending Week Ending Increase or Decrease Week Ending Amount Per Cent Mar. 14, 1923 Amount Per Cent Mar. 12, 1924 Feb. 13, 1924 (325 Banks) (326 Banks) (325 Banks) $ 1,500,000 5 13,627,000 $ 16,263,000 $— 1.136.000 - 7.0 11.0 Akron.................... $ 15,127,000 2.124.000 8.8 2.648.000 187.000 2.311.000 Butler, Pa. 337.000 -12.7 8.692.000 2.763.000 12,208,000 31.8 Canton.................. 11.455.000 753.000 - 6. 2 61.745.000 76.423.000 3.783.000 6.1 65.528.000 Cincinnati............. 10.895.000 -14.3 1 19.039.000 133.208.000 18,484,000 15.5 137,523,000 Cleveland............ 4.315.000 3.2 26.364.000 31.325.000 2.650.000 10.1 29.014.000 Columbus.............. 2.311.000 - 7.4 Connellsville....... 1.132.000 1.759.000 39.000 3.4 1.171.000 588.000 -33.4 13.194.000 15.877.000 27.4 3.609.000 Dayton................ 16.803.000 926.000 5.8 6 266.000 7.218.000 946.000 15.1 7.212.000 Erie........................ 6,000 - 0.1 4.848.000 — 243,000 - 5.0 4.795.000 Greensburg........... 4.605.000 190.000 - 4.0 738,000 704,000 10.6 78.000 Homestead........... 816,000 112.000 15.9 6.859.000 8.643.000 4.4 301.000 7.160.000 Lexington, Ky 1.483.000 -17.2 3.556.000 3.494.000 36.2 1.287.000 Lima...................... 4.843.000 38.6 1.349.000 1.082.000 1.216.000 130.000 12.0 Lorain.................. 1.212.000 4,000 - 0.3 2.303.000 1.670.000 471.000 28.2 Middletown........ 2.141.000 162,000 - 7.0 2.327.000 2.290.000 310.000 13.5 New Brighton . . . 2.600.000 273.000 11.7 2.902.000 2.621.000 20.2 530.000 3.151.000 Oil City............... 8.6 249.000 193.697.000 171.943.000 4.7 8.057.000 Pittsburgh.......... 180,000,000 13.697.000 - 7.1 5,497,000 3,781,000 43.6 1.648.000 5.429.000 Springfield.......... 68,000 - 1. 2 2.179.000 30.3 660.000 Steubenville*. .. . 2.839.000 42.907.000 36.384.000 16.0 5.822.000 Toledo................. 42.206.000 701.000 — 1.6 4.103.000 3.954.000 — 632,000 -1 6 .0 Warren, O .......... 3.322.000 781.000 — 19.0 11.153.000 9.722.000 — 481,000 - 4.9 9.241.000 Wheeling............. 1.912.000 — 17.1 12.183.000 12.763.000 Youngstown....... 13.6 1.735.000 14.498.000 2.315.000 19.0 3.003.000 2.611.000 26.0 680,000 3.291.000 Zanesville............ 288.000 9.6 . 5519,184,000 $54,314,000 Total.......... 5573,498,000 ‘ Corresponding figures tor 1923 not available. 10.5 5595,856,000 $— 25,197,000 — 4.2 Movement of Livestock at Principal Centers in Fourth Federal Reserve District for Month of February, 1924-1923 Cincinnati........... Cleveland............ Columbus............ Dayton................ Fostoria............... Marion................ Pittsburgh.......... Springfield.......... Toledo................. Wheeling............. Cincinnati........... Cleveland............ Columbus............ Fostoria.............. Marion................ Pittsburgh.......... Springfield.......... Toledo................. Wheeling............. 1924 1923 15,723 17,255 10,858 9,017 74 98 1,787 1,568 238 226 26 61 31,607 25,662 441 123 889 561 377 197 11,942 11,891 10,337 8,675 29 19 25 40 22 60 5,298 4,647 20 40 688 377 197 1923 1924 1924 1923 2,928 2,319 116,880 105,623 75,417 87,551 15,077 14,406 2,806 258 3,503 11,144 13,207 283 138 6,011 702 8,279 544 2,774 3,892 441 115 283,466 237,644 52,514 54,563 2,992 5,039 3,354 990 11,583 10,216 1,266 635 2,141 2,720 26 1 Purchases for Local Slaughter 79,484 58,407 2,236 1,931 54,268 75,620 12,734 12,502 372 278 18 1,406 200 ’ "8 5 2,032 2,462 12 4 63,913 42,668 7,442 5,626 912 651 15 2,180 74 2,720 2,141 26 1 1924 11,526 8,753 67 874 555 151 30,985 242 403 1,280 4,428 8,565 32 30 87 6,561 76 323 1,280 1923 11,165 8,398 93 680 396 Cars Unloaded 1924 1923 1,636 1,576 1,549 1,413 10 4 102 24,822 4,400 3,844 ...’ 39 i is 26 112 578 745 4,720 8,345 58 25 84 5,159 34 745 Wholesale Trade Percentage Increase (or Decrease) in Net Sales During February, 1924, as Compared with January, 1924, and February, 1923 Dry Goods Net Sales (selling price) during February, 1924, compared with January, 1924...................... ....................................................... . . 10.4 Net Sales (selling price) during February, 1924, compared with February, 1923........................ ....................................................... 0.3 Hardware Drugs Groceries 12.2 — 2.2 0.5 1.1 — 2.5 11.8 14 THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Summary of Business and Credit Conditions in the United S t a t e s By The Federal Reserve Board Employment at Industrial establishments in F - k. ruaiy and the output of basic commodities was sHghtly i»T. Distribution, both at wholesale and retail wholesale prices were somewhat higher; and there further increase in the volume of borrowing ( o r ------- r r rlil purposes. p r o d u c t io n IodexTof 22 Basic Commodities Corrected for Seasonal Variations (1919 -100). Latest Figure—February, 121. The Federal Reserve Board’s index of production In industries, adjusted to allow for length of month and seasonal variations, increased less than 1 per cent in Februarv Production of pig iron, steel ingots, and flour incrcased w hn, mill consumption o f cotton and production of and In— ber declined. Factory employment advanced 1 per cent in February, following successive decreases during the three ceding months. Increases in working forces were reported bv most industries and were particularly large at iron and nti 1 plants, automobile factories, and textile finishing nrn i!/ Fuller employment through reduction of part work ^ r dicated by an increase of over 5 per coat in average __ rfc1 earnings. Building activity was slightly less than in T—rm T though contracts awarded were 7 per cent larger than a Z ? 1 ago. ^ TRADE Railroad shipments in February were in greater daily volum than in January and car loadings of practically all —rn rtT ? commodities were larger than a year ago. The daily avera* volume of wholesale business increased about 5 per c e n t * ! February, but was slightly smaller than a year ago. Sales rrf meat, dry goods, and hardware were larger than in FebruaiV 1923, while sales of shoes were smaller. Department staT sales in February averaged about the same daily volume as in January and about 8 per cent more than a year ago, while mer chandise stocks at these stores at the end of the month wer" 6 per cent above last year's level. Business of matt orde? houses and chain stores also showed increased activity in eom parison with January. PRICES Wholesale prices, as measured by the index of the Bureau a» Labor Statistics, advanced slightly in February. Prices of fuel, metals and building materials increased, while prices of farm products, clothing, and chemicals declined. During th first two weeks in March price declines occurred in wh^** cotton, silk, hides, and rubber, and price advances in hov copper, and crude petroleum. ^ BANK CREDIT The volume of borrowing for commercial purposes at m __ ber banks in leading cities in the early pan of March contfowg THE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW IS the increase which began in the latter part of January, and on March 12 total loans of the reporting banks were higher than at any time since the seasonal peak at the turn of the year, and about $275,000,000 higher than a year ago. At the Federal Reserve banks during the four-week period ending March 19 a further decline in the volume of discounts for member banks and of acceptances was offset by an increase in the holdings of United States securities, so that total earning assets were at about the same level as in February. Federal Reserve note circulation continued to decline, while the total money in circulation increased. Weekly Figures for 12 Federal Reserve Banks. Latest Figures March 19. Easier money conditions were reflected in a slight decline in rates for commercial paper to 4V* per cent and also in lower rates for bankers9 acceptances and reduced yields on treasury certificates. The March offering of $400,000,000 of one year treasury certificates bearing interest at 4 per cent as compared with 4% per cent on a similar issue sold in December, was oversubscribed. FOUBTM FEDERAL RESEBVE DISTRICT N 6 Y L V ANI A K-£ 1— — ■— . . J r* **--------- n J ) r u BOUNDARY OF D IS T R IC T BOUNDAMS OF MANCH U W T 0 H H 9 — — BOUNDARIES OF STA TE 5 <§) FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. C I T Y O FEDERAL RESERVE BRANCH C IT IE S —
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