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In this issue: Edge Act Corporations: An Added Dimension to Southeastern International Banking Strange Happenings in the Labor Market Banking Notes: Short-Run Reserve Borrowing District Business Conditions 1 3 0for FRASER Digitized E d g e A c t C o r p o r a t io n s : A n A d d e d D im e n s io n to S o u th e a s t e r n In t e r n a t io n a l B a n k in g by John E. Leimone The rapid upsurge in recent years of Sixth D istrict1 international b a n k in g activity testifies to the Southeast's increasing participation in the international e c o n o m y.2 Edge A ct international b an kin g corporations have contributed substantially to gro w in g financial transactions between the Southeast and the rest o f the w orld. For instance, total international assets o f the District Edge A c t banks m ay equal as m uch as one-third the total international assets o f the head offices o f District com m ercial banks, based on the ratio o f their foreign claim s to those reported by District com m ercial banks. M oreover, total assets o f the eight District Edge Act banks are equal to roughly three-fourths the vo lu m e of total assets o f the twelve foreign branches o f District com m ercial banks. Southeastern Edge A ct banks, m ostly subsidiaries o f large m ultinational banks headquartered in the Northeast and California, have also b ro u gh t w ith them substantial w o rld w id e connections already established by their parent organizations. M oreover, because o f the rather special characteristics o f Edge Act banks, their recent concentration in the Southeast has focu sed national and international attention on the expansion of international ba n kin g in the region. (As of June 30,1974, the Sixth Federal Reserve District held fourth place a m o n g the twelve districts in the total num ber o f Edge A ct corporations approved or in operation. M oreover, a m o n g individual cities, M ia m i w as tied w ith C h ic a go and Los A n geles for second place in total num ber o f Edge A ct corporations.) 'The Sixth Federal Reserve District consists of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, the southern halves of Louisiana and Mississippi, and the eastern two-thirds of Tennessee. In this article, the terms Sixth District and Southeast are used interchangeably. 2Several facets of this growth have been detailed earlier in issues of this Review. See "The Spread of International Banking: A Regional View," Monthly Review, August 1971, pp. 142-150; and "Foreign Branches Add to Growth," Monthly Review, July 1973, pp. 112-113. M onthly Review, V o l. LIX, N o . 9. Free su b s c rip tio n and a d d itio n a l co p ie s a va ila ble u p o n req uest to the Research D e p a rtm e n t, Federal R eserve Bank o f A tla n ta, A tla n ta, G e o rg ia 30303. S EP TEM B ER 1974, M O N T H LY R EV IEW TA BLE 1 SIXTH DISTRICT EDGE ACT CORPORATIONS (as of September 30, 1974) Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. C itize n s and Southern In ternational Corporation C itize n s and Southern International B ank F irst A tlanta In tern ation al Corporation B ank of A m erica International of Florida F irs t N ational C ity B a n k (In teram erica) Irving In teram erican B ank W ells Fargo In teram erican Bank C itize n s and Southern intern ation al B a n k of New O rlean s B a n k of Boston International of M iami C h a se M anhattan International B an kin g Corporation B a n kers T ru st International Northern T ru st International Location Approved Commenced Business Atlanta M iami Atlanta M iami M iami M iami M iami New O rlean s M iami Miami M iami Miami 8- 3-65 12-11-68 9- 1-70 10-27-70 12-22-70 5-31-62 6-29-71 10-21-71 10-21-71 10-19-72 9-13-73 5- 3-73 10- 7-65 3-24-69 3- 1-71 3- 8-71 5- 3-71 8- 2-71 8-16-71 1- 3-72 5-15-72 1-29-73 8-19-74 9-16-74 Note: F irs t Foreign Investm en t Corporation, a s u b sid ia ry of S o utheast B a n kin g Corporation, com m enced b u sin e ss on Feb ru ary 10, 1967, and legally ce ase d operation N ovem ber 22, 1973. T ru st Com pany of Georgia is a co-ow ner of A llied Corporation In tern ation al, a New York-based Edge Act Corporation that w as e sta b lish e d in mid-1968. F irst N ational B a n k of M em phis also form ed a “q u a si-E d g e ” corporation in New O rlean s in m id-1973. D esp ite the publicity surro u nd in g the recent form ation of Edge A ct corporations in the Sixth District, the history o f international b an king corporations in this area extends back to 1921 w hen several com m ercial banks in the South and So uth w est form ed the Federal International Banking C o m p a n y o f N e w Orleans. This corporation and tw o others in N e w York constituted the only three Edge corporations form ed du ring the Twenties. Unfortunately, because o f the adverse environm ent for international b an king in the Twenties and Thirties, the Federal International Banking C o m p a n y w as forced to liquidate a few years after opening, thereby sharing the fate o f m ost Edge A ct and A greem ent corporations operating du ring this period. (See insert for the difference between Edge A ct and Agre em ent corporations.) This ended the Sixth District's experience with international b an king corporations until the m idSixties; at that time, the renewed interest in inter national ban king that had em erged in other parts o f the nation a few years earlier led several large District banks to consider international ban king corporations as one vehicle for extending their nascent international activities. In 1965, the Citizens and Southern National Bank established an Atlantabased Edge A ct corporation to function as a h o ld in g c o m p an y for investments in several ban king and financial corporations in the Caribbean and northern South Am erica. The fo llo w in g year, the First N ational Bank of M ia m i established an Agreem ent corporation to hold certain investm ents in the Baham as. (This corporation has recently been liquidated.) In 1970, another investm ent-oriented Edge corporation w as form ed in Atlanta by the First National Bank of Atlanta to hold a one-sixth share in a London m erchant bank. F E D ER A L R ESERV E BANK O F ATLA N TA How ever, in the Sixth District, banking-oriented Edge corporations have largely overshadow ed the investm ent-oriented corporations. (See insert for explanation of differences between b an king and investm ent Edge corporations.) The first of the ban king Edges in the Southeast w as established by the Citizens and Southern National Bank in M ia m i in early 1969.3 This event alerted large m ultinational banks in other parts of the country to M ia m i's potential for international b an king activity. C o n sequently, the Bank o f Am erica established an Edge corporation in M ia m i in 1971, and the num ber of non-D istrict banks establishing such corporations in M ia m i has continued to grow. A s of Septem ber 20, 1974, nine banks, eight of w hich are headquartered outside the Sixth District, have established Edge banks in M iam i. In late 1971, N e w O rleans joined Atlanta and M iam i in boasting an Edge ban king corporation w hen the Citizens and Southern National Bank o pen ed its third Edge corporation there. W h ile this Edge bank has not yet been joined by others, the First National Boston C orporation in early July of 1974 subm itted an application for an Edge corpora tion in N e w Orleans. In addition, the First National Bank of M e m p h is form ed a so-called "q u a si-E d g e " unit that has been operating in N e w O rleans since July 1973. A pparently this unit functions as a representative office with w hich international transactions are arranged, w hile the execution of 3At about the same time, the Atlanta-based Trust Company of Georgia became equal partners with a number of other U.S. banks in founding Allied Bank International, an Edge Act corporation headquartered in New York. 131 In te rn a tio n a l B a n k in g C o rp o ra tio n s T h e c o n c e p t o f in te rn a tio n a l b a n k in g c o r p o r a tio n s h a v e n o m in im u m re q u ire d c a p ita liz a t io n , t io n s as a fu rth e r m e a n s o f e n c o u r a g in g U. S. a lt h o u g h p a re n t b a n k s m u s t h a v e a m in im u m c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s to a c q u ir e an in te rn a tio n a l c a p ita liz a t io n o f $1 m illio n . F in a lly, th e ro le e m e r g e d s h o r t ly after th e p a s s a g e o f the m a jo rity o f a n E d g e A c t c o r p o r a t io n 's s t o c k F ederal R e se rv e A c t in 1913. T h e F ederal m u s t b e o w n e d b y U . S. c itiz e n s o r le g al R e se rv e A c t itse lf p r o v id e d s o m e in te rn a tio n a l e n titie s c o n t r o lle d b y c itiz e n s, a n d o n ly U . S. s t im u lu s b y a u t h o r iz in g n a tio n a l b a n k s to c itiz e n s m a y b e d ire c to rs. T h e s e re stric tio n s d o a c c e p t d ra fts o r b ills o f e x c h a n g e d r a w n u p o n n o t a p p ly to A g r e e m e n t c o r p o r a t io n s . N o n e t h e th e m a n d to e s ta b lis h fo r e ig n b r a n c h e s u n d e r less, b o t h ty p e s o f c o r p o r a t io n s are q u ite c e rtain s p e c ifie d c o n d it io n s . N e v e rth e le ss, s im ila r in te rm s o f p e r m it te d a c tiv itie s a n d b e c a u s e o f th e h ig h c o s t o f in itia tin g in te r o p e r a t io n a l s c o p e . In fact, R e g u la t io n K, n a t io n a l ac tivitie s, S e c tio n 25 o f th e A c t w a s t h r o u g h w h ic h th e F e d e ral R e se rv e B o a r d e x e r a m e n d e d in 1 91 6 to e n a b le c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s c ise s its a u th o r ity o v e r E d g e A c t c o r p o r a t io n s , to jo in to g e th e r in f o r m in g in te rn a tio n a l b a n k a ls o a p p lie s to A g r e e m e n t c o r p o r a t io n s . 1 in g c o r p o r a tio n s . T h is a m e n d m e n t a u th o r iz e d In t e r n a tio n a l b a n k in g c o r p o r a t io n s d iffe r a n y n a t io n a l b a n k w ith c a p ita l a n d s u r p lu s o f fr o m c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s in se v e ra l im p o r ta n t $1 m illio n o r m o r e to in v e st u p to 10 p e rc e n t o f w a y s. F or e x a m p le , a n E d g e c o r p o r a t io n m a y its c a p ita l a n d s u r p lu s in F e d e ra l- o r state - b e e s ta b lis h e d in a state o th e r th a n th a t in c h a rte re d c o r p o r a t io n s p r in c ip a lly e n g a g e d in w h ic h its p a re n t b a n k is lo c a te d , w h e r e a s in te rn a tio n a l o r fo r e ig n b a n k in g . S u c h c o r p o r a b r a n c h e s o f U. S. b a n k s o r b a n k in g s u b s id ia r ie s t io n s h a v e b e c o m e k n o w n as A g r e e m e n t o f U. S. b a n k h o ld i n g c o m p a n ie s c a n n o t e x te n d c o r p o r a t io n s , s in c e th e y m u s t e n te r in to an a c r o s s state b o u n d a r ie s .2 H o w e v e r , th e a b ility a g r e e m e n t w ith th e F e d e ral R e se rv e B o a r d to c r o s s state lin e s is te m p e r e d b y th e strict s p e c ify in g c o n d it io n s u n d e r w h ic h th e c o r p o r a lim ita tio n to in t e rn a tio n a l o r fo r e ig n a c tiv itie s tio n m a y o p e rate . e x c e p t fo r m a n a g e m e n t o f s h o rt-te rm B u t b e c a u s e th e 19 1 6 a m e n d m e n t fa ile d to liq u id ity .3 Y e t th e ra n g e o f p e r m is s ib le fin a n c ia l p r o v id e an e x p re ss m e a n s fo r g r a n t in g a a c tiv itie s o f an in t e rn a tio n a l o r fo r e ig n n atu re F e d e ral c h arter, S e c tio n 25(a) w a s a d d e d to e x c e e d s th at o f U . S. c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s. In th e A c t in 1 9 1 9 e m p o w e r in g th e B o a r d to p a rtic u la r, E d g e c o r p o r a t io n s m a y in v e st in c h a rte r in te rn a tio n a l b a n k in g o r g a n iz a t io n s s to c k o f fin a n c ia l a n d n o n f in a n c ia l c o r p o r a t io n s w ith a m in im u m c a p ita liz a t io n o f $2 m illio n . o u t s id e th e U n it e d States, s u b je c t to c e rtain N a t io n a l b a n k s c o u ld in v e st u p to 1 0 p e rc e n t o f th e ir c a p ita l a n d s u r p lu s in s u c h c o r p o r a tio n s . c o n s tra in ts .4 U n t il 1967, th e se p o w e r s g a v e E d g e A c t a n d T h e s e c o r p o r a t io n s are k n o w n as E d g e A c t c o r p o r a t io n s after S e n a t o r W a lt e r E d g e o f N e w Jersey, w h o s p o n s o r e d th e S e c tio n 25(a) le g isla tio n . E d g e A c t a n d A g r e e m e n t c o r p o r a t io n s d iffe r p r im a r ily in th e ir c h a rte rin g , c a p ita liz a t io n , a n d c o n d it io n s o f o w n e r s h ip . E d g e A c t c o r p o r a t io n s o p e r a t e u n d e r F e d e ra l c h a rte rs g r a n te d b y th e F e d e ral R e se rv e B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s , w h e r e a s A g r e e m e n t c o r p o r a t io n s o p e r a t e u n d e r state c h a rte rs w h ile s u b m it t in g to F e d e ral R e se rv e B o a r d re g u la tio n . E d g e A c t c o r p o r a t io n s m u st h a v e a m in im u m c a p ita liz a t io n o f $2 m illio n ; m o r e o v e r , s in c e b a n k s c a n n o t in v e st m o r e th an 1 0 p e rc e n t o f c a p ita l a n d s u r p lu s in su c h c o r p o r a t io n s , th e m in im u m c a p ita liz a t io n o f a p a re n t b a n k m u s t b e $ 2 0 m illio n u n le s s j o in e d b y a partn e r. In co n tra st, A g r e e m e n t c o r p o r a 132 1Prior to the 1957 revision, Regulation K applied solely to Edge Act corporations, whereas the Board exercised supervision of Agreement corporations through individual agreements with these corporations. Nevertheless, under “grandfather" provisions of the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956, several bank holding companies continue to own banks across state boundaries. ‘Regulation K, Section 211.7(b) states "Funds of a Corporation not currently employed in its international or foreign business, if held or invested in the United States, shall be only in the form of (1) cash, (2) deposits with banks, (3) bankers' acceptances, or (4) obligations of, or obligations fully and unconditionally guaranteed by, the United States, any State thereof, or any department, agency, or establishment of, or corporation wholly owned by, the United States." 4An Edge corporation has the general consent of the Federal Reserve Board to invest in shares of any foreign corporation not doing business in the United States provided that it invest not more than $500,000 and the corporation does not hold more than 25 percent of the voting shares of the foreign corporation. If these conditions are not met or unless stock is purchased to prevent loss on an outstanding credit, specific Board consent is required. SEP TEM B ER 1974, M O N T H LY R E V IE W he R e g u la to ry F ra m e w o rk A g r e e m e n t c o r p o r a t io n s th e sp e c ia l a d v a n ta g e h a v e te n d e d to b e lo c a te d in the s a m e state o f b e in g a b le to in v e st in fo r e ig n b a n k s in a n d o fte n in the s a m e b u ild in g as th e ir p a re n t c o u n tr ie s w h e r e lo c a l re stric tio n s p re v e n te d U . S. b a n k s fr o m e s t a b lis h in g fo r e ig n b ra n c h e s. b an k. O n th e o th e r h a n d , E d g e c o r p o r a t io n s p e r fo r m in g a b a n k in g fu n c t io n te n d to lo c a te (B o th E d g e A c t c o r p o r a t io n s a n d c o m m e r c ia l in o th e r state s to p r o v id e o n -s ite in te rn a tio n a l b a n k s m a y e s ta b lis h fo r e ig n b r a n c h e s w h e r e b a n k in g se rvice s. B a n k in g E d g e c o r p o r a t io n s lo c a l r e g u la t io n s p e rm it). H o w e v e r , an a m e n d w e re in itia lly c o n c e n tr a t e d in N e w Y o rk , as m e n t to S e c tio n 25 in th at y e a r p e rm itte d b a n k s in o th e r p arts o f the n a tio n a tte m p te d to n a t io n a l b a n k s w ith p rio r c o n s e n t to a c q u ir e g a in a p re se n c e in th at la rg e in te rn a tio n a l d ire c t in te re st in fo r e ig n b a n k s, th e re b y s u p b a n k in g m a rke t. M o r e recen tly, la rg e m u lt i p le m e n t in g th e ir fo r e ig n b r a n c h in g p o w e rs. n a tio n a l b a n k s in N e w Y o r k a n d o th e r m a jo r T h e 1 9 7 0 a m e n d m e n t s to th e B a n k H o l d i n g fin a n c ia l c e n te rs h a v e b e g u n to e s ta b lis h b a n k C o m p a n y A c t o f 1 9 5 6 as im p le m e n t e d t h r o u g h in g E d g e s in o th e r parts o f th e c o u n tr y w h e r e R e g u la t io n Y fu rth e r r e d u c e d th e in v e st m e n t su b s ta n tia l p o te n tia l fo r d e v e lo p in g in te rn a a d v a n t a g e s o f E d g e c o r p o r a t io n s b y p e r m it tin g tio n a l b a n k in g a c tiv itie s h a s s e e m e d a v a ila b le . b a n k h o ld i n g c o m p a n ie s to m a k e in v e stm e n ts o f the ty p e a llo w e d E d g e c o r p o r a tio n s . B y v irtu e o f th e ir e x e m p tio n fr o m th e p r o v is io n s o f S e c tio n 23(a) o f th e F e d e ral R e se rv e C u rre n tly , E d g e A c t c o r p o r a t io n s m a y e n g a g e in b o th in v e stm e n t a n d b a n k in g activities, a lt h o u g h th e p a rtic u la r w e ig h t o f a c tiv itie s resu lts in a d iffe re n t re g u la to ry im p a c t. A c c o r d A c t, E d g e a n d A g r e e m e n t c o r p o r a t io n s n e v e r in g to R e g u la t io n K, an E d g e c o r p o r a t io n " i s th e le ss retain an a d v a n t a g e o v e r b a n k h o ld i n g 'e n g a g e d in b a n k in g ' w h e n e v e r it h a s a g g r e g a te c o m p a n ie s a n d fo r e ig n s u b s id ia r ie s o f p a re n t d e m a n d d e p o s it s a n d a c c e p ta n c e lia b ilitie s b a n k s. S e c tio n 23(a) in e ffe c t lim its th e a m o u n t e x c e e d in g its c a p ita l a n d s u r p lu s ." A b a n k in g a m e m b e r b a n k can , in th e a g g r e g a te , in v e st c o r p o r a t io n th u s d e fin e d is lim ite d in the in o r g ra n t c re d it to an a ffiliate o r g r a n t c re d it a m o u n t o f c re d it it c a n g ra n t to a s in g le a g a in s t th e c o lla te ra l o f an a ffilia te to 10 c u s t o m e r to 10 p e rc e n t o f its c a p ita l a n d p e rc e n t o f the c a p ita l a n d s u r p lu s o f th e b a n k su rp lu s. R e g u la t io n K s p e c ifie s a m o r e g e n e ra l in th e c a se o f an in d iv id u a l affiliate, o r 20 p re sc rip tio n o f 50 p e rc e n t o f c a p ita l a n d p e rc e n t fo r all affiliates. su r p lu s fo r c o r p o r a t io n s n o t s o d e fin e d . M o r e (P a re n t h o ld in g c o m p a n ie s o f m e m b e r b a n k s are c o n s id e r e d o ve r, a b a n k in g E d g e m a y n o t e n g a g e in u n d e r to b e a ffilia te s b y th is statute.) A lt h o u g h w ritin g , s e llin g , o r d is t r ib u t in g se c u ritie s o th e r m e m b e r b a n k s are e ls e w h e r e lim ite d to th an o b lig a t io n s o f th e n a tio n a l g o v e r n m e n t o f a fo r e ig n c o u n tr y in w h ic h it h a s a b ra n c h o r th e c a p ita l th e y m a y in v e st in E d g e A c t o r A g r e e m e n t c o r p o r a t io n s [ S e c t io n 2 5 (a )] o r th e tro lle r o f th e C u r r e n c y o r p r e v a ilin g state law s), agency. A m o n g o th e r im p o r t a n t re g u la tio n s, E d g e c o r p o r a t io n s c a n a c c e p t d e m a n d a n d tim e d e p o s its , b u t n o t s a v in g d e p o s its , p r o v id e d th at s u c h lim its are to g e th e r less re strictive th a n th e p r o v is io n s o f S e c tio n 23(a) a p p lic a b le to fo r e ig n tra n sa c tio n s. (D e p o s it s re c e iv e d fr o m a m o u n t o f c re d it th e y m a y g r a n t to a n y in d i v id u a l b o r r o w e r (b y re g u la t io n o f th e C o m p su c h d e p o s it s are in c id e n ta l to in te rn a tio n a l o r arie s o f m e m b e r b a n k s. fo r e ig n e r s are c o n s id e r e d to b e in c id e n ta l to in te rn a tio n a l o r fo r e ig n tra n sa c tio n s.) R e se rv e In p ra c tic e , E d g e c o r p o r a t io n s h a v e te n d e d to se rv e t w o d is t in c t fu n c t io n s , b o th o f w h ic h U . S. m u s t e q u a l th o s e p r e v a ilin g fo r c o m m e r b a n k h o ld i n g c o m p a n ie s a n d fo r e ig n s u b s id i r e q u ire m e n ts a g a in s t d e p o s it s re c e iv e d in the are r e c o g n iz e d in R e g u la t io n K. S o m e E d g e A c t cial b a n k s, e x c e p t th a t th e y c a n n o t fall b e lo w c o r p o r a t io n s p e rfo rm a h o ld in g c o m p a n y ro le 1 0 p e rc e n t o f total d e p o sits . (T h e se reserve fo r th e ir p a re n t b a n k s b y a c q u ir in g a n d h o ld r e q u ire m e n ts are n o t a p p lic a b le to d e p o s its in g s t o c k in fo r e ig n c o r p o r a tio n s . T h e 1 9 6 7 re c e iv e d a b r o a d b y b r a n c h e s o r s u b s id ia r ie s o f a m e n d m e n t s to R e g u la t io n M a n d th e 1 97 0 E d g e c o r p o r a tio n s .) M o r e o v e r , w it h o u t p rio r a m e n d m e n t s to R e g u la t io n Y, h o w e v e r, h a v e B o a r d p e r m is s io n , an E d g e c o r p o r a t io n 's p r o v id e d a lte rn a tiv e s to th is in v e s t m e n t f u n c a g g r e g a t e o u t s t a n d in g lia b ilitie s m a y n o t e x c e e d tion . E d g e in v e s t m e n t -o r ie n t e d c o r p o r a t io n s ten tim e s its c a p ita l a n d su rp lu s. F E D ER A L R ESER V E BANK O F ATLA N TA 133 loans and receipt of deposits are actually conducted at the parent bank in M e m p h is.4 Its prim ary function is to negotiate letters of credit and process foreign collections. In late June 1974, Atlanta becam e the third District city to attract interest as a potential site for an Edge ban king corporation w hen the M a n u facturer's H anover Trust C o m p a n y of N ew York applied for perm ission to establish an Edge corporation in that city. Factors U n d e rlyin g the Form ation of Edge A ct C o rporatio n s in the Southeast A variety of factors lie behind the rapid grow th in the num ber of Edge Act corporations in the Sixth District since the mid-Sixties. The form ation of investm ent Edge corporations reflected a desire of District banks involved to extend their international activities through the acquisition of foreign financial institutions. The m otivation for form in g banking Edges has been m ore com plex. The large vo lu m e of Latin Am erican deposits gravitating to M ia m i for safe keeping has certainly played a prom inent role in the establishm ent of Edge banks in that city. The establishm ent of m any subsidiaries of m ajor U. S. m ultinational corporations in the M ia m i area has also been important. By locating near these corporate subsidiaries, m any of w hich were already custom ers of parent banks, the Edge banks hoped to offer m ore personal service and greater efficiency in transferring funds and in providin g financing than could be provided from parent offices or m ore distant affiliates. The faster-than-national grow th of international trade through Florida and the So u th east, reflecting the region's rapid eco n o m ic grow th and proxim ity to grow th areas in the Caribbean and Latin Am erica, has also attracted interest. The low er cost and greater convenience of business travel from M ia m i to the Caribbean and Latin Am erica, associated with the large num ber of airline flights and the shorter distance to these areas, m ust also be m entioned. Finally, the availability of a Sp an ish speaking labor force, with substantial ban king and financial experience, is another asset. The presence of out-of-state regional banks in N e w O rleans for international ban king business has received less attention than the arrival of nonFlorida banks in M iam i. A pparently the large vo lu m e of international trade flo w in g through the Port of N e w O rleans, only a sm all portion of w hich is financed by local banks, has been a prim e factor 4See "Comptroller Lets FNB Memphis Form Quasi-Edge Unit in New Orleans," Econocast World Banker, Vol. I, No. 12, December 3, 1973. 134 generating interest in this location. Safekeeping of Latin deposits m ay have also played a role. Establishing an Edge bank and "q u a s i-E d g e " facility in N e w O rlean s has also helped the tw o parent banks in strengthening regional netw orks for c o n d u ctin g international banking. Scope of Activities District Edge banks have achieved their greatest success in attracting deposits from private foreigners for safekeeping. In addition, they have generated a significant vo lu m e of loans to private foreigners, and som e have also acquired a notew orthy vo lu m e of foreign correspondent activity. In contrast, only a few have built up a significant volu m e of im port and export fin ancing for local m erchants and manufacturers. Furthermore, although several M iam i Edge banks transfer a significant vo lu m e o f funds for local subsidiaries of m ultinational corporations, they have been d isap pointed in the vo lu m e of loans m ade to these organizations. District Edge banks have m anaged to achieve a rapid deposit grow th based on the inflow of investable funds from Latin Am erica, despite the com petition of local com m ercial banks, investm ent advisory services, and real estate agents. The large stream of Latin A m erican businessm en and tourists to M ia m i5 has greatly facilitated the flo w of funds to that city. M oreover, the close personal ties between Edge bank officials and m any Latin A m ericans and the bilin gual attributes o f Edge em ployees enables them to provide very personal service in receiving deposits from Latin Am erican clients. Such factors have perm itted M iam i banks and Edge corporations to attract large sum s for safekeeping, even w hen U. S. time deposit rates have fallen b e lo w Eurodollar rates. Nevertheless, w hen custom ers so desire, local Edge banks transfer Latin Am erican funds to affiliated institutions operating in the Eurodollar market. Edge bank loans to private foreigners are typically utilized to finance the im port of goods, shipped either from the United States or from other countries, but are often used for sup plem e ntin g w orkin g capital. Som e Edge banks have also becom e involved in fin ancing overseas construction for developm ental purposes. In tandem with such financing, these Edges often issue stand-by letters of credit w hich function as perform ance guarantees. M a n y of these loans are m ade in conjunction with Export-lm port Bank fin ancing or carry F C IA r’Among U. S. cities, Miami ranks second to New York in the total number of passenger arrivals from foreign countries and surpasses New York in the number of foreign visitors arriving from South America, Central America, and the West Indies, as of December ’31, 1972. S EP TEM B ER 1974, M O N T H L Y R EV IEW TABLE 2 SHARES IN TOTAL AND SELECTED COMPONENTS OF FOREIGN LIABILITIES AND CLAIMS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS AND EDGE CORPORATIONS IN MIAMI* (as of December 31, 1973) Foreign Liabilities Total Time Deposits of Private Nonbank Foreigners Demand Deposits of Private Nonbank Foreigners Demand Deposits of Foreign Commercial Banks Demand Deposits of Foreign Official Institutions Banks Edges 71 29 74 26 65 35 64 36 17 83 % % Foreign Claims Total Loans to Private Nonbank Foreigners Loans to Foreign Commercial Banks Foreign Acceptances Collections Outstanding 40 60 37 56 80 73 63 44 20 27 *Selected components are listed in order of decreasing size. Sources: Calculated from data reported to the U. S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve insurance. A substantial proportion carries maturities of longer than one year. The Edge banks that have developed extensive foreign correspondent bank relationships not only hold dollar w orkin g balances and provide correspondent ban king services but also m ake loans to their correspondents. The foreign correspondent banks, in turn, utilize these funds to finance local custom ers. A few Edge banks have also becom e involved in m aking loans to foreign official institutions. Southeastern Edge foreign operations are over w h e lm in gly oriented tow ard Latin A m erica and the Caribbean, with over 90 percent o f deposits and other liabilities due to foreigners and over 85 percent of loans and other claim s on foreigners derived from this area. This concentration of activity reem phasizes the com parative advantage o f M iam i as a center for co n d u ctin g ban king activities vis-avis the Caribbean and Latin Am erica. Reinforcing the advantages previously m entioned are Edge banks' ties with affiliated institutions throughout the Caribbean and Latin Am erica. These affiliates naturally provide business leads as well as first-hand inform ation on local eco n o m ic and political developm ents. How ever, a sharp d ichoto m y exists a m o n g Southeastern Edge banks with respect to the size of their parent banks' regional networks of affiliates. A b o u t half the Edge banks have access to a very extensive netw ork throu ghou t the Caribbean and Latin Am erica. Yet these networks form o nly part of m uch larger w orld w id e networks of the respec tive parent banks. In contrast, w hile the rem aining FE D ER A L R ESERV E BANK O F A TLAN TA Southeastern Edges have access to a m ore limited num ber of Caribbean and Latin Am erican affiliates, these affiliates constitute 50 percent or m ore of the total non-U . S. affiliates of their respective parent banks. Several factors have restrained the developm ent of financing activity with U. S.-based customers, especially for the Edge subsidiaries of out-of-D istrict banks. These Edge banks as a rule have confined their sales efforts to local businesses w ithout attem pting to develop a broad netw ork of Southeastern customers. How ever, M ia m i's relatively sm all base of m anufacturing provides a limited market for the grow th of export and im port financ ing for Edge banks in that city. M oreover, w hile M iam i has a substantial num ber of firms en gagin g in foreign trade, the small, undercapitalized nature of m any of these businesses presents a significant degree of risk and requires a substantial processing effort for the relatively sm all volu m e of financing activity generated. C o m petition from com m ercial banks in M ia m i and other cities in Florida has further inhibited the Edge banks' developm ent of local custom ers, for w h om they cannot offer ban k ing services except of a strictly international character.6 Furthermore, the Edge banks have failed to develop correspondent relationships with local banks that m ight refer custom ers needing interna tional banking services. Nevertheless, the m an age ments of several Edge banks are renew ing their efforts to generate local financing business and have called on their parent offices for assistance in these efforts. Local subsidiaries of m ultinational corporations have generated an unexpectedly small volu m e of loan dem and because few of these subsidiaries possess the financial au tonom y to seek out sources of funds on their own. Rather, they typically c o n solidate their cash balances with those of their head offices at banks located in large m oney market centers and obtain financing through the efforts of these head offices. Nevertheless, because of loca tional advantages and smaller, m ore personalized staffs, a few Edge banks collect and transmit funds for these local subsidiaries in substantial volum e. District Edge banks engage in only a limited am ount of foreign exchange trading. This reflects, am o n g other things, that the currencies of the Caribbean and Latin Am erican nations with which the Edge banks typically deal are infrequently traded "For example, an Edge bank may finance the import of merchandise for a local wholesale or retail firm but may not finance the operating expenses of such a firm, even if it deals strictly in imported goods. Moreover, such a firm may use its checking account with the Edge bank only for international transactions. Thus, payment of salaries or rent cannot be made from its Edge bank checking account. 135 in foreign exchange markets. The small volu m e of transactions in actively traded currencies does not justify the cost of an experienced, full-tim e foreign exchange trader for individual District Edge banks. These Edges hold a lim ited am o un t of investm ents in foreign corporations. Institutional Influences on the Character o f O p eratio n s A lth o u gh Edge banks com pete with the international departm ents of com m ercial banks, differences in organizational ties and in regulatory fram eworks exert different influences on the w ay each initiates and conducts an international ban king business. These institutional factors have m ade a distinct im print on the character of Southeastern Edge bank operations. Because of the generally w ell-established names of the Edge banks' parent organizations, they have an im portant advantage over new international departm ents of com m ercial banks in attracting customers. Parent corporations reinforce this advantage by e n cou ragin g their custom ers to utilize the ban king office, in clu d in g Edge banks, w hich is m ost geograph ically convenient. In fact, the concept of a netw ork o f ban king offices providin g m axim um convenience and flexibility is a m ajor selling point for banking organizations with Edge facilities. Southeastern Edge banks have benefited especially from the flo w of e con om ic and political inform ation and business referrals from sister institutions in the Caribbean and Latin Am erica. T hrough these ties they have obtained a significant am ount of business probably not available to local com m ercial banks. In contrast to Edge banks, com m ercial banks newly initiating international services lack the extensive flow of inform ation and referrals that an international ban king netw ork can provide. M oreover, they m ust develop expertise in providin g international fin ancing and services, whereas new ly-form ed Edge banks typically possess c o n siderable international ban king experience. Never theless, because they can co m bine dom estic and international ban king services, com m ercial banks have an advantage over Edge banks in com petin g for the international business of local customers. Consequently, the prohibition against Edge banks' pro vidin g dom estic banking services and their ties to international ban king networks probably explain their greater orientation tow ard foreign rather than dom estic customers. The regulation lim iting loans to an individual custom er to an am oun t aggregatin g no m ore than 10 percent of their capital and surplus also exerts an im portant influence on District Edge banks' financ ing activities. Because of relatively sm all capital bases, Southeastern ban king Edges are unable, by themselves, to fund large loans typical in inter 136 national finance. C onsequently, they specialize in sm aller loans, for w hich processing costs tend to be higher per d ollar loaned. For larger loans that the Edges generate, they sell participations to parents and parent affiliates. In contrast, a num ber of District com m ercial international departm ents have larger loan limits than District Edge banks because these limits are based on the total capital of their respective banks, w hich exceeds that o f the Edge banks. O ften parent banks assist their Southeastern Edge banks in acqu irin g earning assets by referring sm aller loans or selling participations in prim e custom er loans to them. Interest charged on such loans typically is set in tandem with a com pen satin g balance requirement. How ever, since the balances are held with the parent bank, the spread between cost of funds and the return on the loan is narrower for the Edge bank than its parent. The m anagem ents of Southeastern Edge banks have been especially sensitive to these institutional factors restraining them from expan ding loans at a faster pace or w id e n in g m argins. Ironically, this sensitivity stems from their o verw h elm in g success in attracting foreign deposits. The high proportion of time deposits in their total deposit mix has put considerable pressure on District Edge banks to acquire high return earning assets to meet the interest costs of these deposits. Further co m plicating this is Section 25(a) w hich stipulates that Edge banks m ust hold a m inim um 10 percent o f their total deposits as required reserves. Thus, Southeastern Edge banks with a large proportion of time to total deposits are faced with higher reserve requirements than com m ercial banks with a sim ilar mix, since the largest reserve requirem ent currently applicable to com m ercial bank tim e deposits is 8 percent. In attem pting to offset the squeeze caused by greater grow th in time deposits than in loans, District Edge banks have placed substantial funds in the form of deposits and loans to affiliates of parent ban king corporations. In Florida, a docum entary stam p tax, applicable to bank loans, has affected Edge bank operations in that state. C onsequently, rather than execute a loan in Florida, an Edge bank m ay call on its out-ofstate parent to m ake the loan. The Edge bank may then buy a participation in the loan. C o m p e tition Between Southeastern Edge and C o m m e rcial Banks The establishm ent of Edge banks in M ia m i and N e w O rleans has generated substantial debate over their im pact on international activities of local banks. Sim ilar debates have arisen in other parts of the nation as large U. S. m ultinational banks have increasingly penetrated regional markets for international b an king services via the establishm ent of Edge A ct subsidiaries. So m e participants in the SEP TEM B ER 1974, M O N T H LY R EV IEW debate are concerned that Edge banks, because of their sophisticated expertise and the w orld w id e ties o f their parent banks, m ay quickly dom inate U. S. regional markets and stunt the developm en t of international banking business by regional banks. This w ou ld circum scribe the potential of U. S. regional banks to develop as strong com petitors to the large, U. S. m ultinational banks in providin g international ban king services. O thers respond that Edge banks introduce an additional elem ent of com petition that m ay spur local com m ercial banks to im prove the quality and efficiency o f their international services. These im provem ents thereby redound to the benefit of local custom ers utilizing international b an king services. M oreover, the bro aden ing of the local market that occurs when Edge banks obtain through affiliates business not available to local banks m ay attract further inter national business in w hich Edge banks and local com m ercial banks can share. A n exam ination of several facets of the international ban king market in M ia m i7 provides som e interesting, albeit tentative, evidence bearing on the relative merits of these arguments. Figures collected by this Bank reveal that in a few short years, Edge banks have acquired a substantial share of international ban king activity in the M iam i area. A s of D e ce m b er 31,1973, they accounted for nearly one-third of total deposits and other liabili ties due to foreigners (see Table 2). However, they only held about one-fourth of time deposits of private n on ban k foreigners, the largest deposit com ponent. The Edge banks hold an even stronger position on the asset side, accou nting for 60 percent of total claim s on foreigners. (Nevertheless, the vo lu m e of claim s on foreigners reported by M ia m i com m ercial and Edge banks falls b e lo w half o f total liabilities to foreigners.) The Edge banks' dom inan ce in claim s on foreigners reflects their c o m m a n d in g lead in loans to private non ban k foreigners, the largest co m p o n e n t of assets (see Table 2). They also hold a substantial share o f loans to foreign com m ercial banks, the second m ost im portant asset category. The Edge banks' shares of foreign acceptances and collections outstanding are sm aller but nevertheless substantial. These shares m ust be interpreted with som e caution, however, since they account for only a portion of international banking activity conducted in M iam i. For instance, these data exclude liabilities due to and claim s on dom estic residents arising out of international transactions. (Such data are reported 7Because New Orleans currently has only one full-fledged Edge Act corporation, an analysis of that city is excluded in order not to reveal confidential information. F E D ER A L R ESERV E BANK O F A TLAN TA TA B LE 3 GROWTH IN FOREIGN ACTIVITIES OF MIAMI COMMERCIAL BANKS* Foreign Claims Dec. 1969Dec. 1971 Dec. 1971Dec. 1973 % % 189 99 Lo an s to P rivate Nonbank Fo reigners 171 Lo an s to Foreign Com m ercial B a n k s 143 719 Foreign A ccep tan ce s C o lle ctio n s O u tstanding 75 350 225 886 -1 1 Total Foreign Liabilities Total T im e Deposits of Private Nonbank Fo reigners Dem and Deposits of P rivate N onbank Fo reigners Dem and Deposits of Foreign C om m ercial B a n k s 50 57 60 61 13 63 16 71 ‘ Se le cted com ponents are listed in order of d e crea sin g siz e a s of D ecem ber 31, 1973. So urce: C alcu late d Tre a su ry from data reported to the U. S. by Edge banks but not by com m ercial banks.) Figures collected by this Bank suggest that c o n siderably less than half of M iam i Edge banks' c o m b in ed total of loans and acceptances involve claim s on dom estic residents. In contrast, a survey taken by this Bank three years ago indicated that 70 percent o f District com m ercial bank international loans involved claim s on dom estic residents. These results, plus recent interviews, suggest that M iam i com m ercial banks' international ban king activity m ay be m ore strongly oriented tow ard dom estic rather than foreign custom ers. Thus, market shares com pu ted solely on the basis of foreign claim s and liabilities m ay overstate the Edge banks' total shares in various categories of activity. Further overstate m ent of the Edge banks' shares results because com m ercial banks with sm all am ounts o f inter national ban king activities are not included in the totals.8 Additionally, m any loans referred by, or purchases o f participations in loans m ade by, parent or affiliate institutions w o u ld probably not have been m ade by local com m ercial banks. O n the other hand, loans m ade by Southeastern Edge banks and participated outw ard w o u ld not show up on their reported figures, thereby under stating their share of loans generated locally. Despite these caveats, these market shares indicate that Edge banks unquestionably constitute a potent com petitive force for M ia m i banks. 8Banks with average liabilities due to foreigners, or average short-term claims on foreigners, or average long-term claims on foreigners of less than $500,000 for less than six months, do not report these items. 137 Still, Edge banks have not seriously ham pered the expansion of international activities at M ia m i com m ercial banks. For example, total foreign assets reported by M ia m i com m ercial banks do u bled between D e ce m b er 1971 and D e ce m b e r 1973° despite the influx of Edge banks to the city (see Table 3). A lth o u gh this represents a deceleration in grow th over the previous tw o years, grow th of total foreign assets in both periods w as distorted by an unusually large figure for "o th e r short-term claim s on fore igners" on D e ce m b er 31,1971, w hich subsequently reverted to a m ore norm al level. How ever, the m ost im portant com pone nts of foreign assets— loans to private n on ban k foreigners, loans to foreign com m ercial banks, and foreign accept ances— all accelerated after 1971. In fact, a m arked surge in these loan categories occurred in the latter half of 1971. This surge, w hich coincides with the arrival o f four new Edge banks in the M ia m i area, strongly suggests that the Edge banks introduced a significant com petitive spur, ch allen ging M ia m i com m ercial banks to expand their loans to foreigners so that they m ight maintain their m uch larger base of foreign deposits. [A m o n g im portant asset categories, only com m ercial bank ou tstan din g collections declined after 1971. In contrast, Edge banks experienced a m odest grow th in this category.] Total liabilities to foreigners reported by M iam i com m ercial banks also continued to gro w rapidly between D e ce m b e r 1971 and D e ce m b er 1973 and even m oderately exceeded the rate of grow th du ring the prior tw o years (see Table 3). D e m a n d deposits o f foreign com m ercial banks and dem and deposits o f private n on ban k foreigners d e m o n strated a particularly sharp acceleration in grow th du ring the latter period. Since such deposits typically represent w ork in g balances or com pen sat ing balances, their accelerated expansion is probably “Although the Citizens and Southern International Bank of Miami was established in March 1969, no further Edge bank was opened in Miami until 1971, when a substantial expansion occurred, bringing the total number of Edge banks to five. Thus, December 1971 would appear to be an appropriate bench mark for marking the beginning of a major competitive thrust from the Edge banks. 138 related to the surge in loans b e gin n in g in late 1971. The continued high, but virtually u nchanged, rate of grow th of time deposits of private n on ban k foreigners suggests that the arrival of Edge banks has not m ade a serious incursion into the ability of M ia m i banks to attract deposits from private n on ban k foreigners for safekeeping purposes. The com petition between com m ercial banks and Edge banks in M ia m i extends beyon d international deposits and loans to com petition for skilled personnel. Em p loyin g approxim ately 200 persons altogether, the Edge banks account for a significant share of skilled international b an king personnel in M iam i. Nevertheless, it is far from clear that Edge banks have reduced the p ool of skilled inter national ban king em ployees available to M iam i com m ercial banks. For instance, Edge banks have acquired at least part of their staff from other parts of their parent organizations. M oreover, the atten tion M ia m i has received as a new ly em ergin g international financial center, for w hich the Edge banks have been to a large degree responsible, has served to attract trained personnel from other parts of the nation. In view o f the rapid w orld w id e grow th of international b an kin g and finance in recent years, perhaps it is inevitable that M ia m i should share with other international ban king centers a scarcity of skilled personnel. Sum m ary W ithin a relatively short period of time, Edge A ct corporations have beco m e a m ajor force in inter national ban king and finance in the Southeast. W h ile introducing a significant new com petitive elem ent to Southeastern com m ercial banks increas ing their vo lu m e of international activities, Edge banks have u nquestion ably broadened the market for international b an king services in the Southeast. M oreover, they have helped to strengthen ties between the Southeast and Latin A m erica and the Caribbean. Their presence, w hen added to the gro w in g international activities of Southeastern com m ercial banks and their foreign branches, are a further sign of the gro w in g sophistication of international financial activity in the region. ■ SEP TEM B ER 1974, M O N T H L Y R EV IEW A u g u st 19, 1974 B a n k A n n o u n c e m e n ts B A N K E R S T R U S T IN T E R N A T IO N A L ( M IA M I) C O R P O R A T IO N Miami, Florida Opened for business. Officers: Albert C. Little, president; Robert Stack, vice president; Louis Petri Ilo, vice president and comptroller. Capital, $3,000,000. A u g u s t 1, 1974 BARNETT B A N K S TRU ST C O M P A N Y , N A T IO N A L A S S O C IA T IO N Jacksonville, Florida Officers: Guy W. Botts, chairman; Thomas E. Camp, III, president and chief execu tive officer; Jack R. Lowder, vice president and secretary; Ralph L. McQuiddy, vice president and controller. Capital, $1,000,000; surplus and other funds, $1,000,000. Opened for business as a member. A u g u s t 22, 1974 A M E R IC A N B A N K O F H A L L A N D A L E Pem broke Park, Florida Opened for business as a par-remitting nonmember. Of ficers: Thomas A. Thomas, chairman of the board; David Friend, vice chairman of the board; David L. Cory, president; Gary C. Reed, executive vice president; Berg E. Henriksen, cashier; Phyllis R. Fine, assistant vice president. Capital, $600,000; surplus and other funds, $600,000. A u g u s t 1, 1974 U N IT E D S O U T H E R N B A N K O F M O R R IS T O W N A u g u s t 29, 1974 M orristown, Tennessee FIRST STATE B A N K O F G IL M E R C O U N T Y Opened for business as a par-remitting nonmember. Ellijay, Georgia A u g u s t 2, 1974 Opened for business as a par-remitting nonmember. Of ficers: Walter K. Hayes, president; Allen J. Dover, chairman of the board. Capital, $300,000; surplus and other funds, $300,000. W A L T H A L L C IT IZ E N S B A N K Tylertown, Mississippi Opened for business as a par-remitting nonmember. A u g u st 30,1974 FIRST N A V Y B A N K A u g u st 9 ,1 97 4 Pensacola, Florida FIRST P R O G R E S S IV E B A N K Officers: Charles P. Wood bury, chairman; Porter F. Bedell, president; Raymond H. Jones, vice president and cashier; Jim H. Durr, vice presi dent. Capital, $350,000; surplus and other funds, $153,407. Metairie, Louisiana Opened for business as a par-remitting nonmember. FE D ER A L R ESERV E BANK O F A TLAN TA Converted to a member bank. 139 S t r a n g e H a p p e n in g s in t h e L a b o r M a r k e t by William D. Toal The first half of this year has been a period of general ec o n o m ic sluggishness; indeed, m any w o u ld classify it as a recession. Real G ross National Product (that is, G N P adjusted for higher prices) shrank in first quarter 1974 by a 7.2-percent annual rate and dro pp ed another 1.6 percent in the secon d quarter. A t the sam e time, one of the m ost im portant ec o n o m ic indicators, the u n em p lo ym en t rate, has rem ained rem arkably stable (in the low 5-percent range) in the first half of 1974. In the early stages of the five previous recessions datin g back to the late 1940's, the u nem p loym en t rate rose sharply. W h y not this tim e? Is the recent per form ance of this w idely acclaim ed e co n o m ic indicator a fluke? M o n th ly labor force or u nem p loym en t data at tim es m ay sh o w strange aberrations, but these lessen if analyzed on a quarterly basis. Even at that, h o w ever, the u nem p loym en t rate has behaved atypical ly from the past five recession periods. In fourth quarter 1973, the u nem p loym en t rate stood at 4.7 percent. In first quarter 1974, it jum ped to 5.2 percent; and, in the second, backed do w n to 5.1 percent (see Table 1). In none of the five previous recessions has the u nem p loym en t rate (on a quarterly basis) held steady or declined in the second quarter of an ec o n o m ic dow nturn. This peculiar stability of the u nem p loym en t rate w as also typical of m ost age, race, and sex subcategories, after ju m p in g from the fourth to the first quarter as did the overall u n em p loym en t rate (see Table 2). In fact, the u nem p loym en t rate for teen-agers and nonw hites actually declined from the first to the second quarter 1974. R easons for Stability The u nem p loym en t rate is a tw o-sided coin. C h an ge s in it are determ ined by changes both in e m plo ym ent and in the civilian labor force. This year these elem ents behaved differently than norm ally w o u ld be expected in the early 140 SEP TEM B ER 1974, M O N T H LY R EV IEW TA BLE 1 U N E M P L O Y M E N T R A T E S IN E C O N O M I C D O W N T U R N S 1973 CU RREN T P ER IO D 1974 IV 1 II 4.7 5.2 5.1 1 4.2 II 4.7 III 5.2 IV 5.8 1 6.8 1961 II 7.0 IV 6.4 1970 1969 P A ST R E C E S S IO N S 1969-70 III 3.6 IV 3.6 1960-61 1 5.1 II 5.2 III 5.5 IV 6.3 1957-58 III 4.2 IV 4.9 1 6.3 II 7.4 III 7.3 1953-54 II 2.6 1953 III 2.7 IV 3.7 1 5.3 II 5.8 III 6.0 1948-49 1948 IV 3.8 1 4.7 II 5.9 III 6.7 IV 7.0 1950 1 6.4 1960 III 6.8 1958 1957 1954 1949 IV 5.3 So urce: U .S. Departm ent of Labor stages o f a cyclical dow nturn. This atypical behavior o f e m plo ym ent and the labor force is responsible for the u nem p lo ym en t rate rem aining stable this year. Let's look at each of these m ore closely. Em p lo ym ent C h ange s D id e m plo ym ent sim p ly continue to grow rapidly and give u nem p loym en t and the u nem p loym en t rate their apparent stability by abso rbin g w orkers? The data do not substantiate this. W h ile jo b gains have continued in 1974, em ploym ent grow th has declined substantially from a fourth-quarter 1.0percent rate to first and second quarter rates of 0.2 percent. Both of these quarterly changes were below norm al rates o f e m plo ym ent gain. However, the recent em ploym ent perform ance is better than that in the past five recessions. Em ploym ent in four o f these five actually declined by the second reces sion quarter. But in second quarter 1974, e m p lo y m ent w as still expanding, though at a less-thannorm al rate. There are g o o d reasons for the better e m p lo y ment perform ance this year. The slo w in g in job grow th instead of an actual decline is probably related to factors in the current slow do w n. W h ile previous recessions have been largely related to a d ro p -off in dem and for g o o d s and services in general, the current slo w d o w n has been largely re lated to scarcities and sup ply restrictions and, indirectly, to the A rab oil em bargo. Therefore, it has som e features that differ from past recessions. FE D ER A L R ESERV E BANK O F A TLAN TA It has hit fewer industries this time. In fact, industries such as capital go o d s continued to ex pand in late 1973 and early this year; as a result, labor dem an d has rem ained unusually high in that sector. Som e industries were actually stim ulated by shortage condition s; for example, m in in g began to sh o w strong 1973 em ploym ent gains w hich continued into 1974. The d rop -off in production and em ploym ent w as centered in only a few large industries. These em ploym ent drop-offs cam e suddenly and were quite sharp in m any cases. The m ost notable were the airlines, au tom obile m an u facturing, and certain tourist-related industries. But by the second quarter 1974, m any o f those industries particularly hard hit by shortages, either directly or indirectly, had m anaged to adjust and were able to hire back som e workers. Looking at the overall m anufacturing sector, then, jobs declined by nearly 1 percent in the first quarter but then bou nced back in the second, increasing slightly. These production adjustm ents and em ploym ent recalls helped m odify w hat otherwise m ight have been a job decline in second quarter 1974. In sum, the atypical em ploym ent grow th in the early stages of this e co n o m ic slo w d o w n helped m odify any rise in the u nem p loym en t rate that m ight otherwise have occurred. Still w hile em ploym ent did not change as drastically as in past recessions, job grow th has not been all that rapid in the first half o f this year; the u nem p loym en t rate shou ld have risen. There m ust be another explanation. 141 used quarterly data, w e shou ld have rem oved m any of the sa m p lin g errors inherent in m onth ly figures. TABLE 2 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY MAJOR CATEGORIES 1973 Total Males 20 and over Females 20 and over Both sexes, 16-19 White Nonwhite 1974 III IV 1 II 4.9 4.7 5.2 5.1 3.3 4.8 14.7 4.4 9.0 3.0 4.7 14.3 4.2 8.6 3.5 5.1 15.3 4.7 9.3 3.5 5.1 15.1 4.7 9.0 Source: U. S. Department of Labor C ivilian Labor Force C h ange s If any fluke exists in the current u nem p loym en t num bers, it is the strange behavior of the civilian labor force— the other c o m p o n e n t that determ ines the u nem p loym en t rate. The civilian labor force has not been expan ding recently as m uch as w orkin g-age pop ulation changes w o u ld dictate. It is this lack o f labor force grow th (nearly nonexistent from January through April 1974) w hich has put the brakes on any rise in the u nem p loym en t rate. For example, if the civilian labor force had grow n in the second quarter of this year at the average rate of the previous five quarters and all o f the additional w orkers had been unable to find jobs, the u n e m ploym ent rate in the second quarter w o u ld have been 5.7 percent instead of the actual 5.1 percent. A llo w in g for labor force grow th m ore in tune with the som ew h at slow er average of the 1960's, the un e m plo ym ent rate w ou ld have increased to about 5.5 percent. But, in fact, the civilian labor force grew hardly at all from January to April 1974, and second quarter grow th w as only slightly over 0.1 percent, or at an annual rate of 0.5 percent. This w as m uch low er than the norm al grow th o f abou t 1.7 percent. Furthermore, this decline in labor force grow th seem s to be occurring for other than d em o grap h ic reasons. Participation rates (i.e., civilian labor force divided by civilian population) fell in second quarter 1974 for the first tim e since 1972. Participa tion rates were do w n for adult males, particularly adult m ales 55 and over, black males, and all teen-age groups. The stability in the second quarter's u n e m p lo y ment rate then lies, to a large extent, in the lack of civilian labor force grow th brou ght about by the decline in participation rates. W ill these d e ve lo p ments continue and keep the u nem p loym en t rate from rising for the rest o f this year and next? The answ er is fou n d in w hy the labor force grew slowly. Let us lo ok at four possible reasons for this slow growth. First o f all, it could be a statistical quirk. The u nem p loym en t and labor force num bers are collected on a sam ple basis and are subject to sam p lin g error. How ever, insofar as our analysis 142 An oth er possible reason for the slo w in g is an adjustm ent to the very fast labor force grow th of the last tw o years. O v e r this period, the civilian labor force has increased annually in excess of 2 percent, far above the trend rate. Participation rates also increased, particularly for adult w om en. Therefore, the second quarter's reduced labor force grow th m ight be partly an adjustm ent to excessive past growth. Still another possibility is the often-m entioned "d isc o u ra ge d w orker effect." A s e c o n o m ic activity slow s and jobs beco m e harder to find, m arginal w orkers norm ally respond by d ro p p in g out o f the labor force as they aban do n their search for gainful em ploym ent. This w as typical o f the past five recessions but apparently has not h appened w ide ly through m idsum m er. Except for the teen-age group, the slo w d o w n in labor force expansion has com e largely from adult males, w h o generally are not considered to be m arginal workers. The adult fem ale civilian labor force n orm ally declines in re cession because of the discou raged w orker effect, but this grou p has continued to increase in the current period of e c o n o m ic sluggishness. In sum, the current situation does not seem to sup port the "d isc o u ra ge d w orker effect" as the reason for slo w grow th in the total labor force. A fourth possible explanation fits ec o n o m ic theory w ell and deserves close scrutiny in the current setting. Perhaps the unusual circum stances of today's rapid inflation and the decline in real spendable earnings for the average w orker may have caused som e peop le to d ro p out o f the labor force as the real sellin g price of their services declined. In ec o n o m ic theory, this notion is represented by the "u p w a rd slo p in g su p p ly curve of lab o r"; in other w ords, as real hourly earnings go up, m ore people offer their labor services. D u rin g the past year and a half, inflation has forced real spen dable earnings o f the average w orker to decline substantially. F o llo w in g through w ith this hypothesis, it is reasonable to expect som e groups of w orkers to reduce the am o u n t o f services supplied to the labor market.1 For exam ple, as real earnings decline, teen-agers m ay decide to stay at hom e or stay in sch ool rather than lo o k for a fu ll time job. O ld e r adult m ales m ay opt for early retirement rather than continue to w ork for less real pay. Black m ale w orkers m ay drop out o f the labor force as their real earnings decline and their relationship to other labor force m em bers deterio rates further. In fact, these are exactly the groups JOf course, some groups may actually respond to the decline in real earnings by offering more labor services in order to supple ment or maintain their real incomes. In economic theory, this is known as the downward sloping (or backward-bending) labor supply curve. In the current situation, these conditions would seem to fit adult females most closely. SEP TEM B ER 1974, M O N T H L Y R EV IEW w hich have sh ow n little labor force grow th and a decline in participation rates this year. Som e data published by the U. S. Departm ent of Labor give support to the prem ise that the drop in real earnings has kept people out o f the labor force. These data sh ow that not o n ly has the num ber of w orkers staying out of the labor force increased recently but that this increase has occurred m ainly a m o n g those w h o no longer w ant to work. This is contrary to previous recession experience, w hen the increase in nonparticipants w as prim arily those w h o did w ant w ork— in other w ords, the "d is couraged w orker." The increase in labor force nonparticipants w h o do not w ant w ork is again concentrated in the adult m ale and black m ale groups. These sketchy data, then, support the view that w orkers in certain categories have w ithheld labor services because of reduced real spendable earnings. It seem s reasonable that the decline in real earning pow er this last year and a half is at least partially responsible for the lack o f labor force grow th d u ring m uch of 1974 and, consequently, for the u n em p lo ym en t rate not rising in the face of reduced e c o n o m ic activity. How ever, w hatever the reason for slo w labor force grow th, it is unreason able to expect that it w ill continue m uch longer. In fact, inform ation du ring the last several m onths suggests that an uptick in the u n em p lo ym en t rate and in the labor force is under way. N orm al p o p u la tion increases m ost likely w ill be transmitted into m ore norm al civilian labor force grow th d u ring the rest o f 1974 and in 1975. C onsequently, the slo w in g in labor force grow th shou ld be only temporary. Furthermore, the decline in real spen dable earnings has halted in recent m onths and, unless reversed, sh ou ld no longer hold d o w n labor force expansion. Labor force grow th sh ou ld then return to m ore norm al rates. O u tlo o k After lo o k in g at recent e m plo ym ent and civilian labor force conditions, w hat can w e expect the u n em p loym en t rate to be in the near future, that is, for the rem ainder o f 1974 and for 1975? This is a critical question, since in the past po licy decisions to fight inflation have been relaxed w hen the u nem p lo ym en t rate has risen to high levels. M o s t forecasters expect real e c o n o m ic grow th to remain b e lo w par through next year, with little advance, if any, this year and sluggishness in 1975. They anticipate reduced dem and, rather than FE D ER A L R ESER V E BANK O F A TLAN TA S tra n g e H a p p e n in g s in th e L a b o r M a rk e t Percent U.S. Unemployment Rate 6 (Seas. Adj.) 5 All Workers J 4 i Z i i i ’69 p-JSeas. Adj.) i *73 ’71 A/ _1 Mil. of Persons 1 90 Civilian Labor Force *i ' - 85 -----^ — - 80 Total Employment 75 i ’69 1 1 ’71 1 1 ’73 llllll shortages, to increase in im portance, h o ld in g dow n e con om ic activity. W ith these prospects in m ind and with labor force grow th expected to pick up for reasons m entioned, new m em bers of the labor force shou ld find it hard to find jobs. U n e m p lo y ment and the u nem p loym en t rate shou ld then rise, fo llo w in g a m ore typical cyclical pattern. O n e w o u ld then expect the drop in jobs and rise in u nem p loym en t to spread to m ore segm ents of the econom y, but particularly to m anufacturing and construction. (Construction has been declin in g since 1973.) In other w ords, the perform ance of the u nem ploym ent rate in the first half of 1974 is unlikely to be typical of w hat may transpire du ring the rem ainder of this year and next. The stability of the u nem ploym en t rate in the first half m ight indeed be called a fluke; w e sh ou ld not expect such stability in the near future. Labor force grow th will m ost likely resume at a m ore norm al rate, in the face of sluggish e co n o m ic activity. C onsequently, the u nem ploym en t rate m ay well rise above 6 percent or to rates experienced in previous recessions (see Table 1). a 143 S IX T H D IS T R IC T B A N K IN G N D TE5 S h o rt- R u n R e s e r v e B o r r o w in g Country Banks Reserve City Banks Mil. $ M il. $ N.S.A. N .S .A . Chg. in Reserve Borrowing 200 600 Chg. in Reserve Borrowing + 0 i._i |— I I 400 — T TU u 200 __ Loan Growth 200 Loan Growth ■ + 1 0 if1 1973 1974 1973 Note: F ig u re s are c h a n g e s from p reviou s m o n th ’s level. Re se rve b orro w ing s are c h a n g e s in m o nth ly a verag es of daily figures; loans and d e p o sits are c h a n g e s in m o n th ly a ve rag e s of W e d n e sd ay figures. 1 Deposit Growth Deposit Growth 200 144 JZL 200 + 0 1974 /„ 400 ■ + rtl 400 W h e n a bank's loans are increasing strongly rela tive to its deposits, it norm ally w ill be under pres sure to increase its short-run reserve borro w in g.1 For m em ber banks, the tw o prim ary sources of reserve bo rro w in g are the Federal funds market and the Fed's discou nt w in dow . In the aggregate, then, w e w o u ld expect co m b in e d use o f the d is count w in d o w and the Fed funds market to reflect the com parative size o f loan and deposit changes. The actual relationship between reserve b o rro w ing and loan -deposit flow s becom es clearer if we divide banks into tw o m ajor classes: large (reserve city) banks and other (country) banks.2 Neverthe less, there are tw o prob lem s w hich som etim es lead to contrary results. First, there m ay be sharp weekly fluctuations of loans and deposits. In such cases, intram onthly variations of loan-deposit flow s and reserve bo rro w in g behave as expected, though not necessarily for the m onth as a whole. A second difficulty lies in the data itself. The reserve b o rro w in g figures charted here are averages of daily figures. Loan and deposit figures are m onthly aver ages o f each W e d n e sd a y 's total loans and deposits outstanding. The loan and deposit figures cited are not strictly com parable with the reserve b o rro w ing data. N otw ithstan ding these caveats, behavior at Sixth District m em ber banks thus far in 1974 has been in line with ou r expectations. M o re specifically, from D e ce m b er 1973 through January of this year, de posits were gro w in g faster than loans. In this same period, as a result, reserve bo rro w in g declined. A lth o u gh reserve city banks had reacted to loan and deposit pressure in N o ve m b e r by increasing re serve borrow ing, the relatively com fortable p o si tion o f country banks m ore than com pensated. In February, loan grow th slow ed, but deposits actually declined for both city and country banks, leading to higher reserve borrow ing. In M arch, increased d e posit inflow s at country banks were not m atched at city banks. So, w hile reserve bo rro w in g at country banks declined by $130 m illion, that for city banks increased by $170 m illion. Large bank reserve b o r row in g dom inated that for the entire District. In April both loans and deposits surged at city and country banks alike. A lth o u gh deposits grew m ore than loans at the city banks, their reserve bo rro w in g increased. This contradictory behavior w as partly precautionary reaction to the strong loan grow th and partly a result of intram onthly m ove ments. M o s t o f the increase in reserve borrow in g ’Deposits, as used here, include negotiable certificates of de posit, which are also a longer-term source of reserves for some banks, as are the sale of investment securities and the use of so-called nondeposit sources of funds. 2Here “reserve city” and "country" conform to the Fed’s 1974 definitions, under which a reserve city bank is one with more than $400 million in net demand deposits. FE D ER A L R ESER V E BANK O F A TLAN TA occurred in the last w eek o f April du ring an un usually large drop in deposits. T ho ugh country banks also experienced a larger than norm al endof-m on th decline in deposits, their increase in re serve borro w in g du ring this w eek w as about balanced by reduced bo rro w in g earlier in the m onth; over the m onth there was virtually no change in their reserve borrow ing. In M ay, country banks becam e the chief influence on District reserve borrow ing. T roubled agricultural co nditio n s— low er farm receipts and higher feed and fertilizer costs— set off a deposit o u t-flo w of $430 m illion and kept loan levels high at country banks. C au gh t in this squeeze, these sm aller banks drastically cut their net lending in the Fed funds market by $520 m illion and sharply increased their discou nt w in d o w use by $30 m illion. To som e extent, lighter city-bank reserve b orrow in g in M a y reflected an u n w in d in g from the overb orrow ing during A p ril's surge of loan growth. A s the chart show s, city bank bo rro w in g decreased at a time when deposits grew less than loans. A gain an er ratic w eekly pattern explains w hy these banks acted opp osite to ou r hypothesis. D e p o sit grow th w as stunted by a large decline in the second and fourth weeks. O n the other hand, m ost of the decrease in reserve bo rrow in g took place in the first and third w eeks o f M ay, w hen deposits grew strongly relative to loans. In June, reserve city banks' deposits did indeed grow m ore than loans, and their reserve borrow in g consequently fell. A t country banks, deposit growth, although $50 m illion belo w that of loans, increased at a marked rate. In the first half of the month, deposits were up $390 m illion, w hile loans in creased o nly $90 m illion; as a result, bo rro w in g declined. W h e n deposits fell off in the second half of the m onth, reserve b orro w in g then increased. This rebound w as not enough, however, to keep country bank reserve b o rrow in g from falling by $90 m illion for the m onth as a w hole. In July w eak deposit grow th com bined with stepped-up loan activity to put banks under reserve pressure. C oun try banks increased their bo rro w in g at the discou nt w in d o w by $20 m illion. A t the same time, they reduced sales of Federal funds such that their net sales position dropp ed by $90 m illion. Reserve city banks decreased bo rrow in g by $40 m illion but raised net purchases of Fed funds by $150 m illion. A s a result of these transactions, re serve bo rrow in g for the District rose $220 m illion. In general, then, the 1974 behavior o f m em ber banks in this District illustrates quite well the close relationship between loan and deposit changes, on the one hand, and reserve bo rrow in g in the Federal funds m arket and at the discou nt w indow , on the other. W . F. M A C K A R A 145 S i x t h D i s t r i c t S t a t i s t i c s Seasonally Adjusted (All data are indexes, La te st M o n th 1 97 4 One M onth Ago Tw o M onths A go O ne Year A go U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te : (P e rc e n t of W o rk Fo rce ) . . Avg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg . (H rs.) S IX T H D IS T R IC T I N C O M E A N D S P E N D IN G M a n u f a c tu r in g P a y r o lls . . . . F a rm C a s h R e c e i p t s .................. C r o p s .................................... L iv e s to c k ............................. In s ta lm e n t C re d it at B a n k s * / ' (M il. N e w L o a n s ............................. ......................... R e p a y m e n ts L a te st M o n th 1 97 4 . July June Ju n e June 178 174 2 32 159 179 215 2 89 175 173 188 179 166 180 189 191 J u ly J uly 6 82 635 724r 668 r 668 686 5 79 588 . J uly . J u ly J u ly J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . Ju ly . Ju ly . Ju ly . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . Ju ly . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly . Ju ly 132.6 117.4 114.7 104.0 132.4 118.3 115.8 104.3 112.9 113.8 113.5 129.4 110.9 121.4 132.4 117.9 115.2 105.9 130.6 118.3 115.3 102.3 112 .6 112 .8 113.1 117.3 113.6 128.1 108.1 110 .0 1 1 1 .0 128.5 113.5 130.4 157.7 111.3 137.3 143.2 126.1 138.2 147.4 150.4 102.9 137.2 81.5 129.7 112.4 131.9 156.8 110.3 137.6 145.6 127.2 137.7 147.4 149.6 104.2 136.8 84.1 , Ju ly 4.9 4.7 4.8 2.3 40.1 2 08 181 2 36 81 99 299 .4 241 .9 189.9 298.4 294.1 2.3 40.4 2 .2 1.8 40.1 40.7 24 9 291 20 8 84 115 288.5 238 .8 185.5 281 .8 286.8 200 One M onth A go Two M on th s A go One Year Ago . J u ly . Ju ly 4.2 40.6 4.1 41.1 4.1 40.6 3.9 40.5 . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly 249 208 261 2 53 205 254 251 206 260 219 190 214 . J u ly . June 194 202 191 2 45 185 169 171 197 153.7 129.5 158.4 151.8 128.3 156.3 207 .6 113.8 F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G Mem ber Bank Loans . . . . . . M e m b e r B a n k D e p o s its . . . B a n k D e b i t s * * ...................... IN C O M E E M P L O Y M E N T A N D P R O D U C T IO N N o n fa rm E m p l o y m e n t .................. M a n u f a c tu r in g ......................... N o n d u r a b le G o o d s .................. F o o d .................................... T e x t i l e s ............................. A p p a re l ............................. P a p e r ................................ P r in t in g a n d P u b lis h in g . . C h e m i c a l s ......................... D u ra b le G o o d s ...................... Lbr., W ood Prods., Furn. & Fix. Ston e , C lay, a n d G la s s . . . P rim a ry M e t a l s .................. F a b ric a te d M e t a l s .............. M a c h i n e r y ......................... T ra n sp o rta tio n E q u ip m e n t N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g ..................... C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................... .................. T ra n sp o rta tio n T r a d e ................................ Fin., ins., a n d real est. . . . S e r v i c e s ............................. Fede ral G o v e rn m e n t . . . . Sta te a n d L oca l G o v e rn m e n t Fa rm E m p l o y m e n t ......................... U n e m p lo y m e n t Rate= (P e rc e n t of W o rk F o rce) . . . . In s u re d U n e m p lo y m e n t (P e rc e n t of Cov. E m p . ) .............. Avg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) . . C o n s tru c tio n C o n t r a c t s * .............. R e s i d e n t i a l ................................ All o t h e r .................................... C otton C o n s u m p t i o n * * .................. P e tro le u m P r o d u c t i o n * * .............. M a n u f a c tu r in g P ro d u c tio n . . . . N o n d u r a b le G o o d s ...................... Food ................................. T e x t i l e s ............................. Ap p a re l ............................. P a p e r ................................. P r in t in g a n d P u b lis h in g . . C h e m i c a l s ......................... D u ra b le G o o d s ......................... L u m b e r a n d W o o d .............. F u rn it u re a n d F ix t u re s . . . S ton e , C lay, a n d G la s s . . . P r im a r y M e t a l s .................. F a b ric a te d M e t a l s .............. N o n e le c tric a l M a c h in e r y . . Ele ctrica l M a c h in e r y . . . T ra n sp o rta tio n E q u ip m e n t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ju ly J u ly J u ly J u ly J u ly June J u ly Feb. Feb, Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. 110 .8 11 2 .0 113.5 128.7 1 1 1 .0 120.7 110.7 130.2 112.9 131.5 156.6 108.0 137.9 142.4 126.0 138.3 147.3 150.4 103.6 138.8 87.4 202.6 156.4 311.7 368.1 207 .2 177.4 231.1 273.6 310 .9 472.7 865 .8 419 .9 112 .6 129.8 108.1 121.3 202 2 22 2 14 190 79 21 6 2 28 79 10 1 10 1 297.0 243 .4 190.0 304.5 293.0 204.5 156.0 323.5 361.3 205 .9 186.4 229.9 273 .9 310.6 468.8 855 .9 392.1 300.0 247.7 191.5 301.7 291 .9 226.9 155.9 320 .9 362.5 206.3 188.7 216.5 272.2 308.0 478 .9 835.0 416.0 1 2 2 .1 113.3 128.8 110 .0 129.3 153.0 116.5 134.9 146.9 124.1 135.8 144.8 144.6 99.1 133.9 85.5 4.1 P a y ro lls EM PLO YM ENT C o n s t r u c t i o n .................. Fa rm E m p l o y m e n t .................. U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te 2 (P e rc e n t of W o rk Fo rce) . . Avg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) 161.7 305 .9 347 .6 199.6 190.6 207.0 231.0 283.3 435 .9 778.1 453.2 . J uly J u ly 2 76 2 59 2 76 259 274 2 57 2 38 223 . July . J u ly . J uly 2 16 184 291 2 15 187 288 2 15 186 285 198 174 241 . . . . J u ly J u ly J u ly J u ly 155 .4 129.4 160.3 198.6 109.0 98.8 152.7 128.4 157.7 198.7 99.1 . J u ly . J u ly 4.9 40.5 5.1 40.4 5.3 40.1 4.0 40.8 . J u ly . J u ly . J u ly 3 13 248 3 11 3 15 2 47 312 309 2 46 3 01 268 230 284 165 153 170 167 181 1 64 1 74 J u ly J u ly J u ly J u ly J u ly 127.7 109.0 136.3 138.2 89.7 128.9 136.7 138.7 8 3.4 129.9 111.9 138.1 145.3 92.7 127.1 112.4 133.8 142.6 82.1 J u ly J u ly 4.8 39.7 4.5 40.1 5.1 3 9.9 3.8 40.6 J u ly J u ly J u ly 270 19 5 33 0 26 9 1 96 328 26 6 1 96 32 7 239 185 261 J uly June 1 59 1 54 1 58 162 1 57 170 1 54 159 J u ly J u ly J u ly J u ly J u ly 115.8 103.3 118 .4 87.1 71.3 115.6 103.8 118.1 84.9 6 6.4 117.2 105.4 119.7 89.7 68.1 115.0 104.8 117.1 8 7.2 74.5 J u ly J u ly 6.8 40.0 6.7 4 0.2 6.4 40.0 5.9 41.9 J u ly J u ly J u ly 248 191 244 246 189 235 255 189 229 2 14 172 192 J u ly June 20 2 186 20 3 192 198 197 20 2 129.1 130.2 128.6 124.6 7 9.9 129.4 130.7 128.9 127.5 74.0 129.6 130.2 129.4 132.4 78.8 126.2 130.2 124.4 129.8 82.6 20 1.8 F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M a n u f a c t u r in g P a y ro lls .................. J u ly Fa rm C a s h R e c e i p t s ......................... J u n e 222 EM PLO YM ENT N o n fa rm E m p lo y m e n t . . . . M a n u f a c t u r in g .................. N o n m a n u f a c t u rin g . . . . C o n s t r u c t i o n .................. Fa rm E m p lo y m e n t ............... U n e m p lo y m e n t R a t e ; (P e rc e n t of W o rk F o rce) . . Avg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) 1 1 1 .6 F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M e m b e r B a n k L o a n s .............. M e m b e r B a n k D e p o sits . . . 2 2 2 .1 F I N A N C E A N D B A N K IN G Loans* A ll M e m b e r B a n k s ...................... L a rg e B a n k s ............................. D e p o s its * All M e m b e r B a n k s ...................... L a rg e B a n k s ............................. B a n k D e b it s * / * * ......................... M a n u f a c tu r in g EMPLOYM ENT N o n fa rm E m p lo y m e n t . . . . M a n u f a c t u r in g .................. N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g .............. C o n s t r u c t i o n .................. F a rm E m p l o y m e n t .................. U n e m p lo y m e n t Ra te(P e rc e n t of W o rk F o rce) . . Avg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G ALABAM A M IS SIS SIP P I IN C O M E M a n u f a c tu r in g P a y r o l l s ......................J uly Fa rm C a s h R e c e i p t s ......................... J une 179 207 181 2 55 177 193 160 2 05 EM PLOYM ENT N o n m a n u f a c t u r in g 146 184 EMPLOYM ENT . . . . . J uly J uly J uly J u ly J u ly 12 1.0 117.5 122.7 122.5 75.6 120.9 117.3 122.5 124.9 81.8 120 .2 117.3 121.5 127.8 66.7 119.7 116.7 1 2 1.0 130.6 72.4 J u ly J u ly J u ly J u ly J u ly SEP TEM B ER 1974, M O N T H L Y R E V IE W One M onth Ago L atest M o n th 197 4 Two M on th s A go O ne Year Ago O ne M o n th Ago Two M on th s A go One Year A go J u ly Ju ly J u ly J u ly J u ly 128.5 118.4 134.1 132.2 93.8 128.8 119.2 134.2 132.6 87.2 128.1 117.7 133.9 136.0 93.6 119.5 129.9 132.8 93.2 . . J u ly . . J u ly 4.5 40.0 3.5 40.3 3.6 40.2 3.3 40.5 . . J u ly . . J u ly , J u ly 268 204 270 265 2 61 20 3 274 221 EM PLOYM ENT U n e m p lo y m e n t Ra te* (Pe rcent o f W o rk F o rce) . . . . . July Avg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) . . . Ju ly 4.1 39.9 3.9 39.9 3.6 39.8 3.8 40.5 2 58 2 17 2 59 25 5 219 25 6 2 68 2 56 2 25 193 2 27 M a n u f a c tu rin g ...................... N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g .................. C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................... Fa rm E m p l o y m e n t ...................... U n e m p lo y m e n t Ra te ? (P e rc e n t o f W o rk F o rce) . . . Avg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg . (H rs.) . F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M e m b e r B a n k L o a n s * .............. M e m b e r B a n k D e p o s it s * . . . . B a n k D e b i t s * / * * ......................... La te st M o n th 197 4 . . J u ly . . J u ly . . Ju ly 221 . . . . . . . . . . TEN NESSEE F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M a n u f a c t u r in g P a y r o l l s .............. F a rm C a s h R e c e i p t s .................. 181 204 . . J u ly . . June 177 186 181 2 77 • F o r S ix t h D ist ric t area only; o th e r to ta ls fo r e n tire s ix st a te s M e m b e r B a n k L o a n s * .............. M e m b e r B a n k D e p o s it s * . . . . B a n k D e b i t s * / * * ......................... 16 9 20 2 " D a i l y a v e ra g e b a s is fP r e lim in a r y d ata r-R e v ise d 20 1 264 18 2 191 N.A. N o t a v a ila b le Note: Indexes for bank debits, construction contracts, cotton consumption, employment, farm cash receipts, loans, petroleum production, and payrolls: 1967 = 100. All other indexes: 1957-59 = 100. S o u rc e s : M a n u f a c t u r in g p ro d u ctio n e stim a te d b y t h is B a n k ; non farm , m fg. a n d n o n m fg. em p., m fg. p a y ro lls a n d hou rs, a n d unem p., U .S. Dept, of L a b o r a n d c o o p e ra tin g state a g e n c ie s; cotto n c o n su m p t io n , U.S. B u re a u of C e n s u s; c o n stru c tio n c ontrac ts, F . W. D o d g e Div., M c G ra w -H ill In fo rm a tio n S y s t e m s Co.; petrol, prod., U .S. B u re a u of M in e s; fa rm c a sh re c e ip ts a n d fa rm em p., U .S.D.A. O th er in d e x e s b a se d on data colle c te d b y t h is B a n k . A ll in d e x e s c a lc u la te d b y t h is B a n k . ■Data b e n c h m a rk e d to J u n e 197 1 R e p o rt of C o n d itio n . -U n e m p lo y m e n t ra te s fo r all D ist ric t S t a t e s except F lo rid a h a v e b een e stim a te d u s in g new t e c h n iq u e s d e ve lo p e d b y th e U. S. Dept, o f Labor. N e w se a so n a l fa c t o rs hav e been d e ve lo p e d fo r all s ix D ist r ic t State s. T h e se new se a s. adj. rates are n ot c o m p a ra b le w ith p re v io u s ly p u b lish e d u n e m p . rates. D e b i t s t o D e m a n d D e p o s i t A c c o u n t s Insured Commercial Banks in the Sixth District (In Thousands of Dollars) P e rc e n t i Sh a n ge P e rc e n t C h a n g e J u ly 197 4 Ju n e 1 97 4 J u ly 197 3 Year to J u ly date 197 4 7 m os. from 197 4 from J u ly 1973 1973 June 197 4 J u ly 1974 fro m J u ly 1974 4,87 4,570 117,693 42 2 ,0 1 9 1,344,418 6 4 3 ,645 26 8 ,725 4,35 2,202 360 ,9 8 8 1,252,576 6 5 0 ,987 242 ,836 3,66 2,888 95,0 59 34 5 ,9 6 4 1,030,921 658 ,327 2 1 9 ,626 9 0 1 ,544 5 0 8 ,242 842 ,355 4 59,651 8 0 6 ,763 4 69 ,9 2 4 2,176,463 38 7 ,3 9 4 3 0 1 ,288 4,765,737 1,839,566 343,831 2 5 2 ,896 4,91 7,529 10 0 ,0 21 + + + + + +33 +24 +30 +22 +22 +18 +25 + 11 +26 + 7 + 11 + 12 + 8 +20 1,837,522 2 8 8 ,132 2 4 1 ,6 8 4 3,85 6,659 + 18 + 13 + 19 - 3 + 18 +34 +25 +24 + 12 +26 + 16 +39r - 5 + 11 + 1 + 5 + 0 + 9 + 14 + 1 +23 + 4 + 4 + 9 + 7 + + + + + + + + + 9 +26 +34 +23 +55 +27 + 11 +31 +27 B a rto w -L a ke la n d W in te r H a ve n D a y to n a B e a c h . . Ft. L a u d e rd a le H o lly w o o d . . Ft. M y e r s . . . . G a in e s v ille . . . J a c k s o n v ille . . . M e lb o u rn e T itu sville -C o c o a M ia m i .............. O r l a n d o .............. P e n s a c o la . . . . S a ra so ta . . . . T a lla h a s se e . . . T a m p a -St. Pete W. P a lm B e a c h . . 4 6 6 ,202 7,97 0,664 1,580,924 5 3 7 ,924 539 ,682 893 ,096 4,28 2,274 1,315,751 4 9 1 ,293 7,208,788 1,558,489 51 1 ,8 6 0 538 ,703 734 ,797 4,09 6,729 1,218,065 427 ,911 6,97 9,296 1,566,961 437 ,2 6 2 520 ,392 855 ,923 3,93 0,396 1,234,521 + + A l b a n y .............. A t l a n t a .............. A u g u st a . . . . C o lu m b u s . . . . M acon .............. Savannah . . . . 20 4 ,415 . 19,194,081 695 ,778 528 ,969 8 3 8 ,078 68 2 ,430 2 0 7 ,486 18,999,103 591,271 47 4 ,575 77 4 ,598 625,881 187,176 15,280,487 520,411 43 1 ,5 6 9 540 ,315 537 ,783 + + + + + A le x a n d ria . B a to n R o u g e Lafayette . . L a k e C h a r le s N e w O r le a n s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 0 9 ,754 2,150,175 320 ,1 5 4 28 9 ,008 5,59 4,704 2 7 1 ,428 1,784,110 311 ,731 24 7 ,700 4,852,841 2 5 9 ,9 1 9 1,413,581 2 7 6 ,126 22 7 ,2 0 4 4,420,809 B ilo x i-G u lfp o rt . . Jackson . . . . . 2 9 3 ,7 6 9 1,775,684 2 6 7 ,387 1,560,047 C h a tta n o o g a . . . • 1,407,906 K n o x v ille . . . . ■ 2,311,141 N a sh v ille . . . . . 4,48 0,568 OTHER C EN T ERS A n n is to n . . . . 130,103 12 18 17 7 1 11 +22 5 8 1 1 18 11 8 9 + 14 +30 - 2 + 10 + 13 10 J u ly 1 97 3 180,955 74,8 41 + 15 +22 +25 +13 +27 +13 B ra d e n to n . . . . M o n ro e C o u n ty . O c a lla . . . . . St. A u g u st in e St. P e t e rsb u rg . . . 21 3 ,007 93,0 54 2 0 8 ,096 62,141 1,086,211 2,14 3,173 210,668 90,5 5 4 197 ,052 46,6 65 1,006,707 2,05 1,712 186 ,613 75,1 8 8 2 0 0 ,0 8 4 44,1 87 1,097,947 1,824,456 + 1 + 3 + 6 +33 + 8 + 4 +14 +24 + 4 +41 - 1 +17 +17 +48 + 3 +51 + 5 +18 . . 1 7 2 ,004 111,007 194,851 24,6 1 0 172,675 86,5 4 6 4 2 ,7 3 4 57,571 163 ,779 119,955 159,399 106,463 1 85,923 2 4,9 26 145,385 81,7 50 60,447 59,4 70 145 ,450 108,582 164,506 102,883 166 ,700 19,4 69 141 ,130 72,2 96 39,7 93 56,7 9 0 1 4 2 ,880 91,057 + 8 + 4 + 5 - 1 +19 + 6 -2 9 - 3 +13 + 5 + 8 +17 +26 + 6 + 11 17,108 15,381 1 0 2 ,098 7 6,4 76 27,0 5 2 40,3 81 15,8 22 12,976 84,509 61,6 06 26,081 39,9 0 4 18,942 11,131 95,1 92 62,9 17 2 8,0 92 38,3 53 + 8 +19 +24 + 4 + 1 +22 4 5 +20 + 1 + 10 . . . . . . 150,875 90,7 1 6 140,320 67,1 7 9 147 ,266 79,795 124,962 55,812 137,797 76,0 5 0 137 ,548 5 3,5 15 + 2 + 14 + 12 + 9 + 19 + 2 +26 + 11 +14 + 11 + 12 . . 172,026 91,7 38 58,2 39 149,798 75,8 86 66,4 7 0 139,059 7 8,3 68 46,981 + 15 +24 + 17 +24 + 9 +24 +30 Ath e n s . . . . B ru n s w ic k . . D a lto n . . . . E lb e rto n . . . G a in e s v ille . . G riffin . . . . L a G ra n g e . . . New nan . . . . R o m e .............. V a ld o s ta . . . . . . . . . . . . . + 10 +22 +20 + 9 +18 +19 +25 + 7 + 1 +15 +32 +21 - 8 +12 -1 0 + 6 +25 +13 + 15 16 10 15 16 9 13 10 +21 +53 + 18 +21 A b b e v ille . B u n k ie . . Ham m ond . N e w Ib e ria P la q u e m in e T h ib o d a u x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H a t t ie s b u rg . L a u re l . . . . M e rid ia n . . N a tc h e z . . P a s c a g o u la M o s s P o in t V ic k s b u r g . . Y a z o o C ity . . . . . + 3 + 17 + 15 + 19 280 ,701 1,466,436 + 10 + 14 + + +21 1,308,253 1,929,050 3,903,072 1,286,820 949,133 3,182,193 8 + 9 + 19 + 2 0 + 144 + 113 A la b a m a + 15 +41 +29 118,532 105,479 + 10 +23 + G e o r g i a .............. L o u is ia n a ' . . . M ississ ip p i1 . . . T e n n e sse e 1 . . . 5 June 1974 196 ,279 69,2 15 + 19 +52 + 16 +27 +27 +21 J u ly 1973 2 2 6 ,5 9 4 84,3 22 . S T A N D A R D M E T R O P O L IT A N S T A T IS T IC A L A R E A S 2 B ir m in g h a m . . . . G a d sd e n . . . . H u n t sv ille . . . . M o b i l e .............. M on tgom e ry . . . T u s c a lo o sa . . . Ju n e 1 97 4 Year to date 7 m os. 1974 fro m 1 97 3 +39 + 19 +21 1 +22 + 9 To ta l +20 +21 -1 2 +38 + 7 + 158,010 185,896 3 2 4 ,457 135 ,088 1 5 5 ,694 277 ,7 9 0 116,492 188,371 259 ,987 + 17 + 19 + 17 +36 - 1 +25 + 6 + 6 +16 . . . . 9 3 ,5 36,824 84,5 09,559 7 4 ,9 66,722 + 11 +25 +23 9,69 0,386 2 7 ,2 74,092 2 5 ,1 35,230 8,86 5,699 3,363,521 10,180,631 8,604,741 25,8 95,208 21,1 52,663 7,913,681 3,201,718 8,228,711 + + + + + + 11 8 +26 + 13 +30 +30 + 18 +44 +24 + 16 +28 B risto l .............. J o h n so n C ity . K in g sp o rt . . . . stric t +21 . . . . . . . . . . 10,8 02,160 2 9 ,3 61,252 27,5 1 5 ,9 5 4 10,262,735 3,782,011 11,8 12,712 9 16 12 16 +22 +17 +37 -C o n fo rm s to S M S A d e fin it io n s a s of D e c e m b e r 31 1972 r-R e v ise d ’ p re lim in a ry fig u re s p u b llsh e d FE D ER R ESERV E BANK O F ATLAN TA Digitized forA LFRASER " B a n k D e b its a n d D e p o sit T u rn o v e r b y B o a rd of 147 D i s t r i c t B u s i n e s s C o n d i t i o n s 1957 59=100 Seas. Adj Mfg Production - Se as. Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Ad j Average Weekly Hours* Mfg. Payrolls m 1 11 11 M m IM 1972 111 11 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1973 m 11 1974 _ Farm Cash Receipts l I I I I II I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I II I I II I 1972 1973 1974 *Seas. adj. figure; not an index Latest plotting: July, except mfg. production, Feb., and farm cash receipts, June. The Southeast's e c o n o m y faltered slightly as the su m m e r progressed. W e a kn e ss becam e m ore evident in labor m arkets and contin u ed depressed condition s in residential h o u sin g low ered overall construction ac tivity. M e m b e r banks still face w eak consum e r tim e deposit inflow s, partly in response to higher interest rates elsewhere. C o n su m e r sp e n d in g is sluggish. Rainfall a n d higher prices brightened the in co m e prospects of crop farmers, w hile m any livestock farmers suffered from higher feed costs. Labor markets softened further in July. The un em ploym ent rate rose to 4.9 percent from June's 4.7 percent; a year ago the rate stood at 4.1 percent. G e o rgia's and Tennessee's u nem ploym en t rates rose sharply in July. W h ile total nonfarm jobs changed o n ly slightly, construction and m anufactur ing e m ploym ent were off substantially. The durable m anufacturing job decline w as centered in G e o r gia's au to m obile assem bly plants, but job decreases in m ost n ondurable m anufacturing industries were scattered. Factory hours and payrolls also fell. Constru ction activity slow ed in July. Further d e clines in the residential sector brought do w n the value of total construction contracts. C onstruction e m plo ym ent w as d o w n in four of the region's six states and in the region as a whole. Rates on hom e m ortgages continued to rise partly because savings and loan associations suffered deposit o u tflow s and cut back com m itm ents. Bank len ding continues to expand at a m oderate pace. Large banks extended additional credit to construction firms, manufacturers, service b u si nesses, and n on ban k financial institutions; w h o le sale and retail trade firms paid do w n som e bank lines. W e a k deposit gains have caused som e banks to rely heavily on borrow in gs at the discou nt w in d o w and in the Federal funds market and on the sale of securities for funds. W h ile the prim e rate N ote: D ata on w h ic h s t a t e m e n t s a r e b a s e d 1 4for 8 FRASER Digitized h a v e b e e n a d ju s t e d in A u gu st rem ained unch anged at 12 percent, m any bankers are review ing credit requests under m ore restrictive gu idelines in order to curtail new loans. C o n su m e r indicators w ere m ixed at m id-sum m er. C o nsum e rs continued to m ake o nly m oderate use o f bank instalm ent credit in July. Loans to purchase non au tom otive co nsum e r g o o d s grew m oderately, as did loans in m ost other categories. W e akn e ss w as again concentrated in autos, although this sector sh ow ed m ore strength than in any previous m onth this year. U nit sales o f autos im proved du ring a norm ally slo w sales period. N o n au to m o tiv e retail sales declined, after the effects of inflation are removed. Late sum m er rains significantly brightened in com e prospects for crop farm ers by im p ro vin g in d i cated yields w hile dry w eather elsew here in the country contributed to sharply higher crop prices. The o u tlo o k continues bleak, however, for m any livestock producers w h o face soarin g feed prices. Fading hopes for covering costs have caused som e herd liquidations and reductions in chick place ments. T ob acco sales have produ ced record-high prices and incom es. A large farm credit agency recently an n ou n ce d an additional hike in interest rates, reflecting the rapid rise in average cost of funds. How ever, a brisk dem an d for agricultural credit continued at m any bank and n on b an k credit sources. w h e n e v e r p o s s ib le to e lim in a t e s e a s o n a l in f lu e n c e s . S EP TEM B ER 1974, M O N T H L Y R E V IE W