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In i s issue: Slowdown in Georgia Manufacturing: A Shift-Share Analysis National and World Events Soften the "Heart of Dixie" Banking Notes: Mobile Home Loans District Business Conditions Slowdown in GeorgiaManufacturing: A Shift-ShareAnalysis by Frederick R. Strobel The Fifties and Sixties sh ow ed G e o rgia 's e c o n o m y ga in in g on that o f the U. S. at a rapid pace. In terms o f both total and per capita personal incom e, this tw enty-year period w itnessed G e o rgia narrow ing the gap w ith the U nited States. The state's total personal incom e grow th from 1967 to 1972 w as over 20 percent greater than the nation's. How ever, m anufacturing w age and salary disbursem ents in G e o rgia and the U. S. increased at an equal pace over this sam e period. W h ile G e o rgia is not prim arily kn o w n as an industrial state, m anufacturing w ages and salaries m ade up 26.7 percent o f the total o f such disbursem ents in 1972. The U. S. counterpart w as 28.2 percent in that year. Thus, alth ou gh the data suggest that G e o rgia 's e c o n o m y is g ro w in g faster than the nation's, its m anufacturing sector is sim ilar to the nation's. O n e m ight co n clu d e that the state's m anufacturing sector w o u ld be susceptible to national m anufacturing trends. The refinem ent o f G e o rgia 's Industrial Production Index (see this Review , M a y 1973) enables a further assessm ent o f m anufacturing's role in the state's e c o n o m ic grow th. The shift-share technique, previously used to analyze regional in co m e and e m plo ym ent grow th, has been adapted here to exam ine G e o rgia m anufacturing trends.1 The im plications o f this analysis are then considered in exam ining the state's m anufacturing perform ance d u rin g the current e c o n o m ic slo w d o w n . Explaining R egion al G ro w th W h a t causes regional m anufacturing grow th ? First, there is the "n atio n a l grow th effect," w hich says that national e c o n o m ic grow th w ill pull the region a lo n g !For a good discussion and illustration of the shift-share technique, see Robert B. Bretzfelder, "Geographic Trends in Personal Income in the 1%0’s," Survey of Current Business, U. S. Department of Commerce, August 1970. For an analysis applied to employment trends, see David Jones and Paul Miller, "Regional Growth and Industrial Change in Ohio: A Shift-Share Analysis," Bulletin of Business Research, Center for Business and Economic Research, Ohio State University, July 1973. M onthly Review, V o l. LIX, N o . 11. Free s u b s c rip tio n a n d a d d itio n a l co p ie s a va ila b le u p o n re q u e st to th e R esearch D e p a rtm e n t, Federal R e se rve Bank o f A tla n ta , A tla n ta , G e o rg ia 30303. 166 N O V EM B E R 1974, M O N T H L Y R E V IE W U S IN G T H E S H IF T -S H A R E A N A L Y S IS The technique o f shift-share analysis m akes it p ossible to identify and quantify the three m ajor sources o f regional grow th by co m p arin g sim ilar national and regional data. Previous applications have analyzed incom e and e m plo ym ent changes. This article uses the shift-share technique to c o m pare G e o rgia's M a n u fa ctu rin g Production Index developed at the Federal Reserve Bank o f Atlanta and the national industrial produ ction index deve loped and m aintained by the Board of G overn ors o f the Federal Reserve System. The 1973 indexes are show n in C o lu m n s G and H o f Table 1. Shift-share analysis com pares changes in data to determ ine sources of grow th, as explained below. Since both production indexes are based on the year 1967 (19 6 7= 10 0), the 1973 index values represent the percent changes since the base year. The results of the shift-share changes between the production indexes can thus be applied to the 1967 value added in G e o rgia m anufacturing (in constant dollars) to yield a quantitative m easure o f national growth, industrial mix, and regional share effects. The calculations are as fo llo w : The national grow th effect is calculated by ap p lyin g to the 1967 value added (C o lu m n A, Table 1)1 for each G eorgia industry the percentage change in overall national industrial produ ction (26.4 percent)2 between 1967 and 1973. 1Value added measures increm ents to manufacturing value. In this concept, for exam ple, a textile product manufactured and sold in G eorgia for $500 but containing materials w orth $200 purchased from outside the state or from outside the textiles industry w ould show a Georgia textiles m anufacturing value added of $300. Throughout this article , value added is expressed in constant (1963 = 100) dollars. 2The total index growth for the U . S. shown at the bottom of Colum n H has been w eighted to reflect those industries shown in Table 1. This is because the Georgia Production Index does not include the tobacco, ordnance, instrum ents, o r m iscellaneous manufactures industries. w ith it. A second factor, and the first o f tw o w hich account for a relative difference between a region's grow th rate and the nation's, is the "indu strial mix effect." In other w ords, does a region have a high o r lo w proportion o f rapidly gro w in g industries (those w ho se national grow th rate exceeds the national all-industry grow th rate)?2 A third elem ent 2For exam ple, the U. S. paper industry grew 35.4 percent between 1967-1973. The total U . S. manufacturing growth rate was 26.4 percent (see Table 1). FE D ER A L R ES ER V E BAN K O F A T LA N T A These results appear in C o lu m n B. Thus, if all G eorgia industries were to gro w at the national average rate, the total grow th in G e orgia m anufac turing value added w o u ld have been $1,155.3 m illion (total, C o lu m n B). The second factor in a region's grow th and the first o f tw o w hich account for a relative difference between its grow th rate and the nation's is called industrial m ix effect. To com pu te the industrial mix effect, the difference between the national all industry grow th rate (26.4 percent) and the indi vidual national industry grow th rates (C o lu m n H) is applied to the individual area industry value added (C o lu m n A). The results are in C o lu m n C. W h e n a national individual industry grow th rate is higher than the national all-industry grow th rate, that industry is termed a high grow th rate industry. Since the total o f C o lu m n C is negative, it can be c o n cluded that G e o rgia has a slightly higher proportion o f slo w -g ro w in g industries in its industrial mix than does the nation. The third elem ent in a region's industrial grow th and the second w hich m akes for a relative change between it and the nation is the regional-share effect. It is co m pu ted by app lying the difference between individual industry grow th rates of the region and the nation (C o lu m n s G and H to C o lu m n A). The results are in C o lu m n D. C o lu m n E show s the total change over the period in value added in Georgia, w hich is the total o f C o lu m n s B, C, and D. C o lu m n F show s the relative change (i.e., changes not associated w ith national growth), w hich is the total of C o lu m n s C and D. The results yield a national grow th effect of 82 percent, an industrial mix effect of -4.9 percent, and a regional share effect o f 22.9 percent. G e o r gia's increase in m anufacturing output relative to the nation w as 18 percent over the 1967 to 1973 time period. in a region's industrial grow th, and the second w hich m akes for a relative difference between it and the nation's, is the "regio n al-sh are effect." This com pares grow th rates o f sim ilar regional and national industries, e.g., G e o rgia textiles with national textiles. The G e orgia Industrial Production Index, like its national counterpart, is based on increm ents to value added in m anufacturing. By co m paring changes in the state and national indexes from 1967 to 1973 and ap p lyin g these to value added in 167 TA BLE 1 SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS Georgia Industrial Production Changes (1967-1973) Attributable To Industry A Georgia Manufacturing Value Added B National Growth C D Industrial Regional Mix Share millions of constant* dollars E Total Change (B + C + D) F Relative Change (C + D) 1967 Foods Textile Mill Products Apparel Products Lumber and Products Furniture and Fixtures Paper and Products Printing and Publishing Chemicals and Products Petroleum Products Rubber and Plastic Products Leather and Products Clay, Glass and Stone Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Nonelectrical Machinery Electrical Machinery Transportation Equipment Total % of Total Change (E) 521.9 997.6 389.5 123.2 68.6 413.9 146.2 303.0 14.7 68.1 28.1 151.4 66.8 139.3 122.8 113.3 707.8 137.8 263.4 102.8 32.5 18.1 109.3 38.6 80.0 3.9 18.0 7.4 40.0 17.6 36.8 32.4 29.9 186.9 4,376.2 1,155.3 82.0 19.3 9.0 - 51.4 1.8 0.2 37.3 - 19.3 72.1 0.1 25.5 - 12.0 5.1 0.4 5.7 1.7 0.5 -122.5 43.3 225.5 13.6 2.5 5.2 - 39.7 5.7 28.5 8.5 111.4 6.3 23.5 48.4 - 43.0 11.2 192.6 -299.4 161.8 497.8 65.1 31.9 23.1 106.8 25.0 180.6 4.5 154.9 1.7 68.6 66.4 0.6 41.9 222.9 -235.0 24.0 234.4 - 37.8 0.6 5.0 2.5 - 13.6 100.6 8.3 136.9 5.7 28.6 48.8 - 37.3 9.4 193.0 -421.9 - 68.9 322.0 1,408.4 253.1 22.9 100.0 18.0 - - 4.9 * "constant” = 1963 dollars the base year (1967), it is possible through the shift-share technique to m easure the relative strengths of the national grow th, industrial mix, and regional share effects on G e o rgia's m anufacturing growth. The results of this analysis are presented in Table 1. A m ore detailed explanation o f the analysis is provided in the box. The fo llo w in g co nclu sion s m ay be inferred from this analysis. First, national industrial grow th is a very im portant elem ent in the state's industrial developm ent. From 1967 to 1973, the national grow th effect m ade up 82 percent o f the change in m anufacturing value added. Second, G e o rgia 's industrial mix is slightly w eighted tow ard relatively slo w -g ro w in g industries, since the industrial mix effect fended to reduce the state's produ ction by 4.9 percent. Third, the regional share effect accounted for a positive differential change in that G e o rgia's industries outperform ed the nation's, although the state mix is w eighted tow ard slow ergro w in g industries. Thus, value added tended to increase, through the regional share effect, by 22.9 percent. The totals of C o lu m n s B, C, and D (Table 1) in dollar terms add up to the total change in G e o rgia's industrial produ ction as m easured by value added, i.e., $1,408,400,000. The relative change between G e o rgia industrial grow th and that 168 G H 1973 Industrial Production (1967 = 100) Industry Ga. U. S. Foods Textile Mill Products Apparel Products Lumber and Products Furniture and Fixtures Paper and Products Printing and Publishing Chemicals and Products Petroleum Products Rubber and Plastic Products Leather and Products Clay, Glass and Stone Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Nonelectrical Machinery Electrical Machinery Transportation Equipment 131.0 149.9 116.7 125.9 133.7 125.8 117.1 159.6 69.6 327.3 106.1 145.2 199.5 99.6 134.1 296.8 66.8 122.7 127.3 113.2 127.9 126.1 135.4 113.2 150.2 127.4 163.8 83.7 129.8 127.0 130.5 125.0 126.8 109.1 Index Total 132.2 126.4 N O V EM B E R 1974, M O N T H L Y R E V IE W State a n d N a t io n a l P r o d u c tio n C o m p a r e d CHART I In du strial Production (S e a s o n a lly A d ju ste d ) i9 6 7 = io o Total Manufacturing - 1 4 0 Production 120 R ecen tly, the n a tio n a l e c o n o m y has slo w e d m a rke d ly . N a tio n a l in d u strial p ro d u c tio n has reflected this s lo w d o w n . H o w has G e o r g ia 's in d u s trial se cto r fare d ? T otal n a tio n a l m a n u fa c tu r in g p ro d u c t io n p e a k e d in N o v e m b e r 1973 at a level 27.4 p e rce n t a b o v e its 1967 b ase ; sin ce then it has ge n e ra lly drifte d d o w n w a r d (see C h a rt I). H o w e v e r, in M a y 1974, it w a s o n ly 1.4 p erce n t b e lo w its N o v e m b e r peak. State p ro d u c t io n p e a k e d in O c to b e r , o n e m o n th be fo re its n a tio n a l c o u n te rp art, a n d lik e w ise drifte d CHART II - 150 Nondurable Goods 130 1973 1974 L a t e s t D a ta P lo t t e d : J u n e o f the n a tio n is 4 -1 8 p e rce n t ( C o lu m n F), a n e ttin g o f in d u strial m ix ( — 4.9 percent) a n d re g io n a l share ( + 2 2 . 9 percen t) c o m p o n e n ts . T h u s, state o u tp u t in c re a se d relative to the n atio n b y $253,100,000. T h e in d u strial m ix w a s a n e ga tiv e g r o w th e le m e n t in G e o r g ia b e c a u se o f its h e a v ily w e ig h te d , s lo w g r o w in g in d u strie s su c h as fo o d , a p p are l, p rin tin g, a n d tra n sp o rta tio n e q u ip m e n t. T h e re g io n a l share factor, h o w e v e r, w a s a p o sitiv e e le m e n t, s im p ly b e c a u se m o st G e o r g ia in d u strie s g re w faster than their n a tio n a l c ou n te rp arts. O f the 17 in d u strie s listed in T a b le 1 ,1 2 g re w faster in the state than n a tio n a lly . T h e c o m b in e d im p e tu s o f su c h a b ro a d sp e c tru m o f relatively fa s t-g r o w in g in d u strie s a d d e d a p o sitiv e 22.9 p e rce n t to in d u strial g ro w th , o f f se ttin g the n e ga tiv e 4 .9 -p e rce n t in d u stria l-m ix effect. T h is y ie ld e d a p o sitiv e relative c h a n g e (sh o w n in C o lu m n F) o f 18 percent. T h is b a la n c e d g ro w th is e s p e c ia lly b e n e fic ia l sin ce , o n a re g io n a l share basis, the sh a rp fall in tra n sp o rta tio n e q u ip m e n t m a te ria lly d r a g g e d d o w n the G e o r g ia re g io n a l share totals. T h u s, w h ile G e o r g ia h as in h e ren t stren gth fo r su sta in e d in d u strial g ro w th , a ttrib u tab le to the ra p id ly g r o w in g n ature o f the regio n , it is a lso very m u c h tied to the n a tio n 's e c o n o m y . FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 1 69 CHART III Nondurable G oods (Seasonally Adjusted) i967=ioo d o w n w a r d th r o u g h M a y 1974; a n d in June it re c o v e re d sligh tly . In p e rc e n ta g e term s, h o w e v e r, the d r o p in G e o r g ia in d u stria l p r o d u c t io n h a s b e e n o v e r tw ic e that o f the U. S. o v e r the sa m e tim e p e rio d . D u r a b le g o o d s p r o d u c t io n in b o th the U. S. a n d G e o r g ia p e a k e d in N o v e m b e r 1973 a n d then fell th r o u g h February. H o w e v e r , U. S. d u ra b le s re co v e re d slig h tly fro m F e b ru a ry to M a y ; G e o r g ia d u ra b le s p ro d u c t io n c o n tin u e d to slid e d u r in g that p e rio d . B o th U. S. a n d G e o r g ia n o n d u r a b le g o o d s m a n u fa c tu r in g p e a k e d in F eb ru ary o f this year; the state 's n o n d u r a b le g o o d s p r o d u c t io n fell m o re sh a rp ly th r o u g h June than d id that o f the c o u n try as a w h o le . T h u s, there se e m to b e t w o m a jo r d iffe re n c e s b e tw e e n this s lo w d o w n a n d the 1 9 6 9 -1 9 7 0 reces sion . First, G e o r g ia d id n o t su ffe r as m u c h as the n atio n d u r in g that re c e ssio n .3 W h ile n o n d u ra b le g o o d s p ro d u c t io n tu rn e d d o w n in the n atio n , the state's n o n d u r a b le s se cto r m e re ly s lo w e d its rate o f p ro d u c t io n in c re a se b u t c o n tin u e d rising. D u r in g the cu rre n t d o w n tu r n , h o w e v e r, G e o r g ia n o n d u ra b le s fell 2.5 p e rce n t fro m F eb ru ary to June, w h ile U. S. n o n d u r a b le s fell less than 1 percent. S e c o n d , G e o r g ia 's d u r a b le g o o d s p r o d u c t io n has falle n m o re sh a rp ly than in 1970; n a tio n a l d u ra b le s p ro d u c t io n fell at a b o u t the sa m e rate in 1970. H o w e v e r, d u r in g the c u rre n t s lo w d o w n , U . S. 3See "An Industrial Production Index for Georgia," this Review, May 1973. T A B LE 2 GEORGIA MANUFACTURING CHANGES DURING CU RREN T SLOWDOWN Declining Industries Index Value (1967 = 100) June 1974 Peak Month % Change Since Peak Textiles Apparel Chem icals Foods Printing Lumber Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metals Electrical Machinery Stone, Clay, Glass Transportation Equipment Furniture Rubber Products Leather Products Petroleum 2-74 10-73 9-73 3-74 10-73 1-74 1-74 4-73 10-73 2-74 11-73 8-73 4-74 6-73 5-73 157.6 122.0 165.0 134.3 119.2 140.2 219.1 101.8 327.7 156.2 69.7 141.4 359.9 109.7 73.3 153.9 110.3 154.8 127.3 110.3 128.7 204.1 88.9 306.0 153.1 55.9 119.4 345.0 90.9 69.2 - 2.3 - 9.6 - 6.2 - 5.2 - 7.5 - 8.2 - 6.8 - 1 2 .7 - 6.6 - 2.0 - 1 9 .8 - 1 5 .6 - 5.6 Durables Nondurables Total Manufacturing 11-73 2-74 10-73 119.6 145.1 135.8 110.7 141.6 131.0 - 7.4 - 2.4 3.5 Advancing Industries Paper Nonelectrical Machinery 170 June 1973 June 1974 124.0 133.6 134.2 146.0 - 4.1 - 1 7 .1 % Change + 7.7 + 8.8 NOVEMBER 1974, MONTHLY REVIEW d u r a b le g o o d s p r o d u c t io n fell b y o n ly 2 p e rce n t fro m N o v e m b e r 1973 to M a y 1974, w h e re a s the state's d u r a b le g o o d s p ro d u c t io n fell b y 7.4 percent. p ercent), the stro n g e r n a tio n a l g r o w th c o m p o n e n t (82 percen t) in d ic a te s the state's d e p e n d e n c e u p o n n a tio n a l e c o n o m ic m o v e m e n ts. C o m p a r in g G e o r M a j o r d u r a b le in d u strie s in flu e n c in g the recent g ia 's In d u stria l P r o d u c tio n In d e x to the n a tio n 's in the curren t s lo w d o w n su p p o r ts the n a tio n a l d e p e n d e n c e effect su g g e ste d b y the sh ift-sh a re analysis. W h ile G e o r g ia in d u stry fare d better than the n atio n d u r in g the 1 969-70 recession , su c h a better- p ro d u c t io n d e c lin e are fa b ric a te d m etals, electrical m a c h in e ry , a n d tra n sp o rta tio n e q u ip m e n t (see C h a rt II). M a j o r n o n d u r a b le g o o d s in d u strie s in the state w h ic h h a ve c o n trib u te d to the total s lo w d o w n are: fo o d s , textiles, a n d a p p a re l (see C h a rt III). In ge n e ral, the state 's p ro d u c t io n pattern fo r these in d u strie s f o llo w s that o f the U. S., th o u g h the state's p ro d u c t io n d o w n tu r n has b e e n m o re se vere than the n atio n 's. C o n c lu s io n T h e sh ift-sh a re an a ly sis, c o m p a r in g G e o r g ia 's in d u stria l p ro d u c t io n to that o f the U. S., in d ic a te s that the state 's m a n u fa c tu r in g is la rge ly d e p e n d e n t o n n a tio n a l m a n u fa c tu r in g trends. W h ile G e o r g ia 's re g io n a l sh are c o m p o n e n t w a s str o n g (r o u g h ly 23 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA th a n -n a tio n a l p e r fo r m a n c e s h o u ld n o t a lw a y s b e expe cted . T h e cu rre n t s lo w d o w n is a case in p oint. R e c e n t m o v e m e n ts in the state's u n e m p lo y m e n t rate s h o w a sim ila r pattern to in d u strial p ro d u c t io n trends, i.e., a p o o r e r -th a n -n a tio n a l p e rfo rm a n c e . In A u g u s t 1973, the state's rate w a s 3.7 p e rce n t; the n a tio n a l rate w a s 4.7 percent. In July o f this year, G e o r g ia 's rate h a d risen b y 1.1 p e rc e n ta g e p o in ts, a lm o s t d o u b le the n a tio n a l rise o f 0.6 percent. Even giv e n the state's p ast re c o rd o f rap id e c o n o m ic g r o w th relative to the n ation , the n a tio n a l e c o n o m y still c a lls the tune. ■ 171 N E a t i o n v e n t s " H e a r t a l S o a o f n d f t e n D i x W o t h r l d e i e " by W. F. Mackara O t h e r a u th o rs h a ve n o te d that A la b a m a 's a n d the n a tio n 's e c o n o m y te n d to m o v e in the sa m e d ire c tio n . In 1973, a n d so far in 1974, this te n d e n c y has a g a in be e n evide nt. A la b a m a , just as the n a tio n as a w h o le , is n o w in a p e r io d o f e c o n o m ic slu g g ish n e ss . T h e roots o f the d o w n tu r n m a y b e traced to the e n e rg y crisis, w h ic h b e g a n w ith the A r a b oil e m b a r g o last O c t o b e r ; a n d the effects o f fue l sh o rta g e s sp re a d to m a n y se ctors o f A la b a m a 's e c o n o m y . A lt h o u g h the e m b a r g o w a s lifted earlier this year, s o m e o f its im p a c t re m a in s a n d o th e r so u rc e s o f w e a k n e ss h a ve d e v e lo p e d . S in c e the p re se n t s lu g g is h n e s s started w ith the e n e rg y crisis, o u r re v ie w b e g in s w ith an a sse ssm e n t o f its e c o n o m ic im p a c t a n d aftereffects. E n e rgy C ris is Less Se v e re . . . In se veral w a y s the e n e rg y crisis w a s less severe in A la b a m a than in o th e r parts o f the c ou n try. O n e fac to r w a s the state's p le n tifu l s u p p ly o f c o a l; its ready a v a ila b ility p ro v id e d an im p o rta n t alte rn a tive to p e tro le u m fuels. B it u m in o u s c o a l p ro d u c t io n w a s h ig h in 1973, a lth o u g h s lig h tly b e lo w 1972 le vels; the m o st recen tly p u b lis h e d p r o d u c t io n data fo r 1974 s h o w it r u n n in g s lig h tly a b o v e last year. A n o th e r so u rc e o f relief fro m fue l sh o rta g e p re ssu re w a s the w id e s p r e a d use o f natural ga s in the state. M o t h e r N a tu re a lso p itc h e d in b y p r o v id in g a ge n e ra lly m ild w in te r in 1973 fo r A la b a m ia n s , r e d u c in g the n e e d fo r h e a tin g fuel. Furtherm ore, the state 's in fan t o il in d u stry h as b e e n d e v e lo p in g at a str o n g pace. M e a s u r e d b y p e rc e n ta ge g ro w th , c ru d e o il led all c a te g o rie s o f in d u strial p ro d u c t io n in 1973 a n d c o n tin u e s to b e a str o n g g a in e r in 1974. O n e o f the best in d ic a tio n s o f A la b a m a 's o v e ra ll e c o n o m ic stren gth in 1973 is the 1 0 -p e rc e n t ga in in p e rso n a l in c o m e . T h e third q u a rte r w a s an e s p e c ia lly g o o d o n e fo r the state. P e rso n al in c o m e rose 4.3 p e rce n t a n d w a s 16 p e rce n t 1 72 NOVEMBER 1974, MONTHLY REVIEW o v e r the sa m e q u a rte r in 1972, sp u rre d b y stro n g a d v a n c e s in in c o m e fro m the m in in g , c o n stru c tio n , Unemploym ent Rate: Below the Nation’s services, a n d g o v e r n m e n t sectors. Pe rso n al in c o m e Percent g ro w th slo w e d in the first q u a rte r o f 1974 a n d fell a bit in the se c o n d quarter. N e v e rth e le ss, it s to o d 8 p e rce n t a b o v e its level in the s e c o n d q u a rte r o f 1973. Factory p ay ro lls, w h ic h g r e w 11 p e rce n t in 1973 a n d c o n tin u e u p w a rd in 1974, h a ve c o n trib u te d to h ig h e r p e rso n a l in c o m e . T h is is d e sp ite s o m e w h a t sh o rte r h o u rs in 1973 a n d th u s far in 1974 than in 1972. A v e r a g e w e e k ly h o u rs d e c lin e d fro m 41.1 h o u rs in 1972 to 40.8 h o u rs in the first h a lf o f this year. Bu t th o u g h the y w e re w o r k in g less hou rs, m a n u fa c tu r in g w o rk e rs w e re e a r n in g m o re . A v e r a g e w e e k ly e a rn in g s in c re a se d fro m $132.47 in 1972 to Source: U.S. Dept, of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Alabama Dept, of Industrial Relations. $141.53 in 1973, a n d then to $149.64 th r o u g h the first se ven m o n th s o f this year. T h is is still b e lo w the U. S. a ve rag e o f $171.73, b u t A la b a m a le ad s her S o u th e a ste rn n e ig h b o r s in this respect. M o re o v e r , in the state's tw o largest m e tr o p o lita n areas, B ir m in g h a m a n d M o b ile , a ve ra g e w e e k ly e a rn in g s exce ed the n a tio n a l average. W h e n the effects o f in fla tio n are c o n sid e re d , the e a rn in g s p ic tu re is s o m e w h a t less rosy. T h e 7p e rce n t ga in in 1973 e a rn in g s w a s o n ly slig h tly m o re than the rise in the r e g io n 's c o n s u m e r prices. A n d , o v e r the 1 2 -m o n th p e rio d e n d in g June 1974, the rate o f in fla tio n e x ce e d e d g ro w th in e a rn in gs. T h is lo ss in p u r c h a s in g p o w e r m a y b e d im in ish e d , h o w ever, b y w a g e se ttle m e n ts in recent a n d u p c o m in g la b o r c o n tra c t n e go tia tio n s. O n e sig n o f stren gth in the e c o n o m ic d o w n tu r n sm all rise in the jo b le ss rate. A ge n e ral e c o n o m ic s lo w d o w n takes tim e to spread. M o re o v e r , its im p a c t w ill affect so m e in du strie s m o re than others. A g a in , e m p lo y m e n t data giv e us so m e c lu e s as to the tim in g a n d relative im p a c t o f the recent d o w n tu rn . S lu g g is h n e s s started to hit n a tio n a l e m p lo y m e n t a ro u n d D e c e m b e r o r January; in A la b a m a , e m p lo y m e n t w e a k e n e d a ro u n d M a r c h . A s m a y be expected, the sh o rta g e o f p e tro c h e m ic a ls d ire c tly affe cted the c h e m ic a l industry, first to register e m b a r g o -r e la te d e m p lo y m e n t d e clin e s. H e re the sh o rta g e o f p e tro c h e m ic a ls h ad a d ire c t im pact. D e s p ite several m o n th s o f d e clin e s, e m p lo y m e n t has be en the state's u n e m p lo y m e n t rate, w h ic h in m o st A la b a m a in d u strie s re m ain s a b o v e y e a r-a g o c o n tin u e s w e ll b e lo w the n atio n 's. In the first h a lf o f 1974, the rate rose a bit to 4.1 p e rce n t (six -m o n th levels. O n the o th e r ha n d , e m p lo y m e n t in the p rim a ry a n d fab ric a te d m etals, app are l, p a p e r ave rage) fro m 19 7 3 's a ve ra g e o f 3.9 percent, sta n d in g u p w e ll c o m p a r e d to the U. S. T h e n atio n a l jo b le ss rate rose fro m 4.6 p e rce n t in O c t o b e r 1973 to 5.8 p e rce n t in S e p te m b e r 1974. In contrast, p ro d u cts, c o n stru c tio n , fo o d p ro d u cts, a n d w o o d p ro d u c ts ind ustries, w h ic h to ge th e r a c c o u n t for a b o u t 23 p e rce n t o f total n o n fa rm w a g e a n d salary e m p lo y m e n t, are d o w n fro m last year. A la b a m a 's rate rose fro m 3.8 p e rce n t to 4.6 p erce n t o v e r the sa m e p e rio d , a b o u t tw o -th ir d s as m u c h ; T u s c a lo o sa a n d G a d sd e n . T h e T u s c a lo o s a area this in cre a se w a s a lso sm all c o m p a r e d to the rate's b e h a v io r d u r in g the 1960-1961 a n d 1969-1970 slu m p s. su ffe re d jo b d e c lin e s in its large g o v e r n m e n t se cto r a n d in the f o o d p ro d u c ts industry. G a d s d e n w a s hurt b y jo b lo sse s in m e ta ls a n d co n stru ctio n . . . . B u t N o t W it h o u t Im p a c t T h is is n o t to say that the "e n e r g y crisis s p a s m " a n d its afterm ath left A la b a m a u n to u c h e d . A s id e fro m the u n e m p lo y m e n t rate, o th e r data reveal a m ixe d pattern. T h e n u m b e r o f u n e m p lo y e d A la b a m ia n s rose sh a rp ly in 1974. A t the sa m e tim e, the total c iv ilia n w o r k fo rce fell slig h tly b e tw e e n January a n d A u g u s t. T h is c o n trasts w ith 1973, w h e n the n u m b e r o f u n e m p lo y e d w o rk e rs fell 16 p erce n t w h ile the la b o r fo rce g re w 4 percent. B e ca u se the u n e m p lo y m e n t rate is d e fin e d as n u m b e r o f u n e m p lo y e d w o rk e rs d iv id e d b y total la b o r force, the recent d e c lin e in the la b o r fo rce is in part related to the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA In term s o f S M S A 's , tw o p ro b le m areas are C o n s tr u c tio n Suffers Pe rh a p s m o st v u ln e ra b le in an y p e rio d o f e c o n o m ic s lu g g is h n e s s is the c o n stru c tio n industry. A n d w h e n a p e rio d o f e c o n o m ic le th a rgy is c o n te m p o ra n e o u s w ith o n e o f re c o rd -h ig h interest rates a n d lim ite d cre d it ava ila b ility , it sp e lls real tro u b le for c o n stru c tio n activity. T h is w a s in d e e d the case in A la b a m a . C o n s tr u c tio n e m p lo y m e n t tu rn e d d o w n in D e c e m b e r, three m o n th s after it b e g a n fa llin g for the n atio n as a w h o le . T h e m a jo r v ictim has be en the residential sector, w h e re the v o lu m e o f c o n stru c tio n c o n trac ts in 1974 has be en sh a rp ly b e lo w y e a r-a g o levels. T h is w e a k - 173 ness c o m e s o n to p o f an 1 1 -p e rc e n t d e c lin e in v a lu e s d u r in g 1973. T h e n o n re sid e n tia l se cto r has p ic k e d u p s o m e o f the slack, as v a lu e s o f the se c o n tra c ts g r e w str o n g ly in 1973 a n d w e ll e x c e e d e d g r o w th fo r the U. S. as a w h o le . T h is p artly reflects a la rge v o lu m e o f n e w a n d e x p a n d e d in d u strial p la n ts in the state. T h e B ir m in g h a m S M S A p a rtic u la rly has e x p e rie n c e d h ig h e r -th a n -y e a r-a g o g a in s in n o n re sid e n tia l c o n tra c t value s. In fla tio n R a p id ; S a le s S lo w A lt h o u g h there w e re so m e s ig n s o f stren gth in late su m m e r, a u to sales, c o m p a r e d w ith y e a r -a g o levels, d e c lin e d fro m D e c e m b e r th r o u g h M a r c h , a p e rio d o f w id e s p r e a d fue l sh o rtag e s. W e a k a u to d e m a n d is a lso reflected in n e w car re g istra tio n s in the first h a lf o f 1974, d o w n 22 p e rce n t fro m the sa m e p e rio d last year. A related item , o f cou rse, is g a s o lin e sales. O n a d o lla r - v o lu m e basis, sa le s at ga s se rvice sta tio n s as o f July 1974 w e re o v e r 27 p e rce n t a b o v e the yeara g o level. M u c h o f this c a m e fro m p ric e in crease s; fo r a lth o u g h d o lla r v o lu m e rose, the n u m b e r o f g a llo n s s o ld d e c lin e d fro m N o v e m b e r to M a r c h . H ig h e r p rice s a lso a c c o u n te d fo r m u c h o f the g ro w th in total retail sale s in 1973. T y p ic a l o f this w a s the large ju m p in v o lu m e o f f o o d sale s (prices X q uan tity). T h e ir rate o f g r o w th w a s n early d o u b le that in the three p re v io u s years. W h ile A la b a m ia n s m a y h a ve in c re a se d the ir f o o d c o n s u m p t io n , a g o o d de al o f this w a s a result o f h igh f o o d prices. Lik e w ise in 1974, w h e n p ric e in c re a se s are taken in to c o n sid e ratio n , the rise in retail sale s b e tw e e n July 1973 a n d July 1974 h as b e e n q u ite m o d e st. W id e s p r e a d S h o r ta g e s A m i d H ig h P r o d u c tio n In fla tio n a ry p re ssu re s w e re a g g ra v a te d b y sh o rta g e s o f key g o o d s , w h ic h h a m p e re d efforts o f p ro d u c e rs to m e et d e m a n d s. T h e se sh o rta g e s w e re n o t lim ite d to p e tro le u m p ro d u c ts b u t in c lu d e d steel, fertilizer, a n d farm e q u ip m e n t as w ell. A la b a m a 's iron a n d steel p ro d u c t io n has b e e n h igh b y h isto ric a l stan d a rd s, b u t in 1973 a n d so far in 1974, the y fell b e lo w the p re v io u s y e a r's o u tp u t. c a p a c ity levels. Iro n a n d steel n e e d s fo r p re se n t a n d Part o f the re d u c tio n m a y h a ve be en a sso c ia te d p la n n e d o il d r illin g o p e r a tio n s w ill req u ire eve n w ith the c lo s in g o f a large iron a n d steel fo u n d ry in B ir m in g h a m last su m m e r. Iro n p r o d u c t io n w a s fu rn a ce s to the n e w " Q - B O P " fu rn a c e s b y A la b a m a 's greater p ro d u c tio n . C o n v e r s io n fro m o p e n -h e a rth a lso cu rtaile d b y the te m p o ra ry s h u t d o w n o f a b ig largest ste e lm a k e r w ill h e lp m e e t g r o w in g d e m a n d b last fu rn a ce fo r m a in te n a n c e p u rp o se s. W h e n the fu rn a ce re su m e d o p e r a tio n in N o v e m b e r 1973, iron and , at the sa m e tim e, h e lp a lle v ia te e n v ir o n m e n ta l p ro b le m s. a n d steel p r o d u c t io n in c re a se d m a rke d ly . E n v iro n m e ntal facto rs w e re r e s p o n sib le fo r ta k in g several e lectric fu rn a ce s o u t o f o p e r a tio n in January o f this year, a n d p ro d u c t io n a g a in d e clin e d . In an y case, str o n g d e m a n d fo r the se b a sic m e ta ls in c o m e in A la b a m a . In 1973, a v e ra g e m o n t h ly levels has e n c o u r a g e d p ro d u c e r s to o p e ra te n ear m a x im u m o f the state's farm receip ts rose m o re than 40 p e r 174 W o r ld Eve n ts B e n e fite d F arm e rs N a tio n a l a n d in te rn a tio n a l e v e n ts b o o s t e d farm NOVEMBER 1974, MONTHLY REVIEW cent. C r o p receip ts a lo n e w e re u p a lm o s t 29 percent. d e stro ye d . O f gre ater trage dy, the to r n a d o e s left in C o tto n , A la b a m a 's m o st im p o rta n t cash cro p , w a s a b e n e fic ia ry o f the o il e m b a r g o . T h is is b e c a u se c o tto n c o m p e te s w ith sy n th e tic fib e rs fo r textile their w a k e o v e r 200 h u m a n casualties. a n d a p p a re l uses. S in c e m a n y sy n th e tic s are p e tro c h e m ic a l de rivatives, the d e m a n d fo r c o tto n increase d. A lt h o u g h c o tto n p ro d u c t io n fell s o m e w h a t in 1973, h ig h e r p rice s m o re than c o m p e n sa te d . S o y b e a n s are A la b a m a 's m o st im p o r ta n t c ro p in term s o f a c re a ge p lan te d . H e re a gain , w o r ld eve nts A la b a m a B a n k s U n d e r P ressu re B a n k in g a ctivity m irro re d the state's c h a n g in g e c o n o m ic d e v e lo p m e n ts. T o ta l d e p o sits at A la b a m a m e m b e r b a n k s g r e w 15 p e rce n t d u r in g 1973, w h ile lo a n s w e re u p 22 percent. T h e m o re rap id gro w th in lo a n s relative to d e p o sits is typ ica l o f the p re ssu re b a n k s a cro ss the n a tio n h a ve e x p e rie n ce d . T h is h a d c o n se q u e n c e s fo r farm ers. T h e d isa p p e a r a n c e p re ssu re h as c o n tin u e d in to the first h a lf o f 1974; o f a n c h o v ie s o ff the c o a st o f Peru r e d u c e d an im p o rta n t so u rc e o f w o r ld p ro te in . A s a su b stitu te p ro te in so u rc e , the d e m a n d for, a n d thu s the p rice of, so y b e a n s increased. the state's total b a n k lo a n s h a ve in c re a se d 15 C r o p cash receip ts d r o p p e d o ff q u ite sh a rp ly in the first q u a rte r o f 1974. But, o n average, in the first e ig h t m o n th s, c ro p receip ts are a b o v e the ir levels o v e r the sa m e p e r io d in 1973. Large incre a se s in p erce n t, b u t total d e p o sits, o n ly 9 percent. O u t lo o k In re v ie w in g A la b a m a 's e c o n o m y , o n e re cu rrin g th e m e is that the state's p e rfo rm a n c e is c lo se ly tied to n a tio n a l d e v e lo p m e n ts. W h e n the U. S. c lim b s p la n te d acreage , p a rtic u la rly fo r c o tto n a n d s o y o u t o f the p re se n t s lo w d o w n , n a tio n a l e c o n o m ic be an s, s h o u ld m o re than b a la n c e a n y d e c lin e in g r o w th w ill sp ill o v e r in to A la b a m a . prices. T h e d r o u g h t s w h ic h se v e re ly hurt the M id w e s t w e re n o t a se rio u s p ro b le m in A la b a m a . W e a th e r p e rm ittin g , 1974 c o u ld b e a ve ry g o o d y ear fo r A la b a m a crops. For the p ast several years, liv e sto c k receip ts h a ve taken the lio n 's sh are o f total farm receipts. In 1973 that sh are in c re a se d fro m 67 p e rce n t to a lm o s t 70 p e rce n t o f the total, a n d a ve ra g e m o n th ly liv e sto c k receip ts a d v a n c e d 47 percent. U n fo rtu n a te ly , liv e sto c k raisers h a ve n o t h a d the sa m e g o o d fo rtu n e in recent m o n t h s as c ro p gro w e rs. T h e la rge in cre a se in 1973 c a m e m o stly in A u g u s t a n d Sep te m b e r. In O c to b e r , h o w e v e r, liv e sto c k receip ts started fa llin g , a n d farm e rs fo u n d th e m se lv e s in a t w o -w a y squ ee ze. T h e c o st o f fe e d in g the ir a n im a ls w a s risin g ra p id ly and , at the sa m e tim e, in c re a se d d o m e s tic a n d fo re ig n su p p lie s resu lte d in fa llin g liv e sto c k prices. C o m p a r e d to the first se ven m o n th s o f 1973, liv e sto c k receip ts are w e ll b e lo w last year. A s m e n tio n e d , w e a th e r in A la b a m a h as be en g e n e ra lly fav o ra b le , m itig a tin g the effects o f the e n e rg y crisis a n d b e n e fitin g farm ers. B u t o n e n o ta b le e x c e p tio n to this w a s the sp ate o f to r n a d o e s w h ic h stru c k the S o u th e a st earlier this year. E stim ated d a m a g e in A la b a m a w a s p la c e d at $40 m illio n , the h ig h e st in the S ou th e a st. N e a rly 1,500 h o m e s, a p a rtm e n ts a n d c o m m e r c ia l b u ild in g s w e re In the lo n g run, the la rge v o lu m e o f n e w a n d e x p a n d e d in d u strial p lan ts a n n o u n c e d last y ear a n d this y ear b o d e s w e ll fo r the state's future. T h is e x p a n sio n has n o t h a d a sig n ific a n t effect o n state e m p lo y m e n t, fo r m a n y o f the p ro jects are o f a c a p ita l-in te n siv e rather than a la b o r-in te n siv e nature. M o re o v e r , sin ce c o m p le t io n date s fo r m a n y o f the p ro jects are far in the future, the u ltim ate im p a c t o n e m p lo y m e n t is yet to b e felt. Bu t as su ch e x p a n sio n p ro ce e d s, A la b a m a w ill b e g in to reap its benefits. T w o p ro je cts d e se rv e sp e c ia l m e n tio n in this regard. O n e is the T e n n e s s e e -T o m b ig b e e in la n d w ate rw ay , w h ic h w ill c o n n e c t the Port o f M o b i le to the T e n n e sse e River. It w o u ld c u t w a te rw a y d ista n c e s b e tw e e n A la b a m a p o rts a n d th o se o f o th e r states, p r o v id in g c o n sid e r a b le sa v in g s in tra n sp o rta tio n c o sts a n d sp u rr in g d e v e lo p m e n t o f in d u stry a lo n g the route. A s e c o n d project, w h ic h is less defin ite , is the p r o p o s e d c o n stru c tio n o f a su p e rp o rt fac ility o ff M o b i le fo r u n lo a d in g o il su p ertan ke rs. This, c o m b in e d w ith the T e n n -T o m w ate rw ay , w o u ld p ro v id e fo r the d e v e lo p m e n t o f refineries a n d p ro c e ssin g facilities, c re a tin g n e w jo b o p p o rtu n itie s fo r state residents. If A la b a m a is to avail itself o f the e c o n o m ic p o te n tial o f the se p rojects, it m u st c o n tin u e e n la r g in g a n d im p r o v in g d o c k a n d p o rt facilities. ■ FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 175 S I X T H C D I S T R I C T u t - B a c k B A N K I N G in M N D T E S o b i l e H o m e L o a n s S IX T H D IS T R IC T M E M B E R B A N K M O B IL E H O M E L O A N S Change, Dec. 1973 from June 1973 % June 1974 Amount (million $) DISTRICT . . . % Change, June 1974 from Dec. 1973 819 + 14 + 4 . . . . 128 + 10 + 5 A n n is to n G a d sd e n . . B ir m in g h a m . . D o th a n . . . M o b ile . . . M o ntgom ery . . . 9 57 4 14 35 + + + + + 6 9 9 14 13 + + — 2 3 2 7 3 41 34 112 83 5 + + + + + 10 15 18 8 2 + + + + + ALABAMA FLORIDA . . . J a c k s o n v ille . . M ia m i . . . , , O rla n d o . . . . P e n sa c o la . . T a m p a -St. P e t e rs b u rg . . M ISSISSIPPI* . . . Jackson . . . . H a ttie sb u rg -L a u re lM e rid ia n . . N a tc h e z . . . . + + 4 6 12 4 0 5 107 + 4 + 11 28 9 + + 30 17 _ — 9 33 17 1 + + 36 52 + + 8 7 June 1974 Amount (million $) GEORGIA . . . A tla n ta . . . A u g u s ta . . C o lu m b u s . . M acon . . . Savannah . . S o u th G e o rgia . . LOUISIANA* A le x a n d ria L a k e C h a rle s B a to n R o u g e Lafaye tte-Ib eriaH oum a . . N ew O rle a n s T EN N ES SEE* C h a tta n o o g a K n o x v ille . . N a sh v ille . . T ri-C itie s . . . . . . % Change, Dec. 1973 from June 1973 % Change, June 1974 from Dec. 1973 115 67 14 14 10 17 2 + + + + + + + 20 18 28 20 40 8 12 + + + + + + + 12 14 21 17 1 20 2 56 + 17 + 0 15 13 + + 20 7 + + 14 4 25 + + 2 24 — 152 30 12 103 10 + + + + 20 30 6 17 66 + _ + + — + 12 2 10 1 1 16 5 31 N O T E: F ig u r e s s h o w n are fo r trad e a n d b a n k in g areas, w h ic h in c lu d e se v e ra l c o u n t ie s s u r r o u n d in g ce n tra l citie s. B o u n d a rie s of s o m e a re a s in c lu d e c o u n t ie s in tw o states. S o m e data are pa rtly estim a te d . C h a n g e s m a y reflect stru c tu ra l c h a n g e s in serie s. T o ta ls m a y n ot a d d b e c a u s e o f ro u n d in g . ‘ R e p re s e n ts th a t p ortion of th e state in the S ix t h D istrict. 176 NOVEMBER 1974, MONTHLY REVIEW In the last ten years, m a n y S o u th e a ste rn b a n ke rs M o b ile Hom e S h ip m e n ts to Dealers Sixth District States h a ve e n te re d the m a rke t fo r m o b ile h o m e loan s, d e v e lo p in g c o n sid e r a b le expe rtise in a n a ly z in g a n d T h o u s a n d s o f U n it s h a n d lin g these loan s. B a n k s w e re in itia lly attracted to this m arke t b e c a u se m o b ile h o m e lo a n s o ffe re d a rap id w a y to b u ild a v o lu m e o f relative ly p ro fit a b le in sta lm e n t loan s. T h e se lo an s, m o re o v e r, fille d a g a p b e tw e e n sh o rte r-m a tu rity c o n s u m e r lo a n s a n d lo n g e r-m a tu rity resid en tial m o rtga ge s. A s a result, D istric t in su re d b a n k s' m o b ile h o m e lo a n s g re w fro m v irtu a lly n o th in g to $440 m illio n b y 1970 a n d then trip le d to $1,251 m illio n b y the e n d o f 1973. D u r in g the first h alf o f 1974, h o w e v e r, the situ a tio n c h a n g e d : T h e v o lu m e o f m o b ile h o m e lo a n s in c re a se d o n ly 4 p e rce n t T h e se b a n k s h ad be en c re dit at fo u r tim e s that o f 30 p erce n t d u r in g the d o w n at m e m b e r b a n k s at D istric t m e m b e r banks. e x p a n d in g m o b ile h o m e rate, o r at an a n n u a l rate early Seven tie s. T h is s lo w p r o b a b ly o v e rsta te d w h a t eve r d e c e le ra tio n has o c c u rre d at D istric t b a n k s in ge n e ral, h o w e v e r, sin ce so m e large m e m b e r b a n k s o r ig in a te m o b ile h o m e lo a n s a n d then sell the m to sm a lle r n o n m e m b e r ban ks. A s usu al, the 1974 lo an s lo w d o w n w a s n o t u n i fo r m ly d istrib u te d t h r o u g h o u t the D istrict. T ak en toge th e r, m e m b e r b a n k s in G e o r g ia a d d e d a c o n S o u r c e : M o b ile H o m e M e r c h a n d is e r * B a s e d u p o n th e r a t e o f s h ip m e n t s th r o u g h J u l y . M o bile Hom e Loans O u tstan ding Sixth D istrict— A ll Insured B an ks M il. $ sid e ra b le v o lu m e o f n e w lo an s, w h ile b a n k s in the so u th e rn h a lf o f M is s is s ip p i d id n ot even rep lace the lo a n s that w e re p a id off. T h e d r o p -o ff in T e n n essee p artly reflects lo an sale s b y N a sh v ille b a n k s rather than a d r o p in o r ig in a tio n s. A ls o , the state's 1 0 -p e rc e n t u su ry la w has u n d o u b t e d ly h a d a n e g a tive im p act. B o th e c o n o m ic a n d fin a n c ia l fac to rs have c o m b in e d to p ro d u c e the ove ra ll le n d in g pattern. Be fo re fin a n c in g c o n sid e r a tio n s b e c a m e a s ig n if ican t factor, S o u th e a ste rn m o b ile h o m e sale s w e a k e n e d in late 1973 fo r several reasons. First, m o b ile h o m e m arke ts in so m e parts o f the D istric t m a y ha ve b e c o m e saturated, at least te m p o ra rily ; o v e r 800,000 u nits have be en s o ld in the S o u th e a st d u r in g the last ten years. S e c o n d , m o b ile h o m e p rices have increase d, re fle ctin g h ig h e r p ro d u c t io n costs, m o re e x p e n siv e o p tio n s, a n d the in c re a sin g p re v a le n c e o f tra d in g u p to m o re e x p e n siv e ly e q u ip p e d units. T h ird , real sp e n d a b le in c o m e s o f m a n y p r o sp e c tiv e m o b ile h o m e b u y e rs b e g a n to e ro d e in 1973. A su b sta n tia l part o f the recent re d u c tio n in b a n k m o b ile h o m e le n d in g, h o w e v e r, has u n q u e s tio n a b ly c o m e fro m the b a n k s ' o w n re lu cta n ce to m a k e these loans. First, b an k e rs have be en either u n w illin g o r u n a b le to increase their interest rates o n m o b ile h o m e lo a n s to ke e p p ac e w ith incre a se s in their o w n c o sts o f b o rr o w e d fun ds. S e c o n d , d u r in g the tim e w h e n the rate o f return o n m o b ile h o m e lo a n s h a d b e c o m e relatively unattractive, the b a n k s w ere a lso fa c in g stro n g lo an d e m a n d s fro m o th e r b o rro w e rs, n o ta b ly b u sin e sse s a n d n o n b a n k fin a n cial in stitu tio n s, as w e ll as to fin a n c e resid en tial m o rtg a g e s a n d c o m m e r c ia l p ro p e rty d e v e lo p m e n t. A n o th e r c o n c e rn o f the b a n ke rs has be en the q u a l ity o f their m o b ile h o m e lo an p o rtfo lio . A g r o w in g J e - ’7 0 J e - ’71 D-’ 71 J e - ’7 2 D-’7 2 J e - ’73 D-’ 73 ( c a ll d a te s ) n u m b e r o f m o b ile h o m e lo an d e lin q u e n c ie s a n d re p o sse ssio n s are c a u s in g b a n k e rs to a cc e p t o n ly p rim e -q u a lity c re dit a p p lic a tio n s. Be fore late 1973, the se factors w e re n ot p ro b le m s. Real in c o m e s w e re risin g a n d b a n k s w illin g ly in cre ased the lo an m a tu ritie s fro m 6 to 10 years, in o rd e r to m in im iz e the im p a c t o n m o n th ly p a y m e n ts o f larger a n d m o re e x p e n siv e m o b ile h o m e s. A t the sa m e tim e they w e re a b le to increase the y ie ld o n these loans. But n o w , w h e n m o b ile h o m e s sales w o u ld a lso b e n e fit fro m re d u c e d m o n th ly lo an p a y m ents, b a n k s have m o v e d in just the o p p o s ite d ir e c tion. S o m e o th e r c o n s u m e r lenders, h o w e v e r, h a ve re m a in e d w illin g to m a k e these lo an s, w ith su ffi c ie n tly lo n g re p a y m e n t p e rio d s to e n a b le m a n y b o r ro w e rs to m e e t the m o n th ly p ay m e n ts. JOHN M. GODFREY S ix t h D is t r ic t S t a t is t ic s S e a s o n a lly A d ju ste d (A ll d a ta a re in d e x e s , u n le s s in d ic a te d o t h e r w is e .) L a t e s t M onth 1974 O ne M onth Ago Tw o M o nth s Ago One Year Ago U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te (P e rc e n t o f W o rk F o r c e ) ......................... S e p t. A vg. W e e k ly H rs . in M fg. (H r s .) . . . S e p t. S IX T H D IS T R IC T IN C O M E A N D S P E N D IN G L iv e s to c k ...................................... In s ta lm e n t C re d it a t B a n k s * / ’ S ep t. Aug. Aug. Aug. 179 186 170 182 180 196 260 178 178 174 232 159 163 243 . S e p t. , S e p t. 681 654 6 24 5 97 r 676 667r 701 584 . . . . 170 210 E M P L O Y M E N T A N D P R O D U C T IO N P r in tin g an d P u b lis h in g L b r ., W ood P ro d s ., F u rn . & Fi> S to n e , C la y , a n d G la s s . . . T ra n s p o rta tio n E q u ip m e n t S ta t e a n d L o c a l G o v e rn m e n t F a rm E m p lo y m e n t ............................................ U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te (P e rc e n t o f W o rk F o rc e ) . . . . In su re d U n e m p lo y m e n t (P e rc e n t o f C o v . E m p . ) ......................... A vg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H rs .) . . P e tro le u m L a t e s t M onth 1974 P ro d u c tio n * P r in t in g a n d P u b lis h in g F u rn itu r e a n d F ix t u r e s . . S to n e , C la y , a n d G la s s . . P r im a ry M e t a l s ......................... F a b ric a te d M e ta ls . . . . N o n e le c tric a l M a c h in e ry E le c t r ic a l M a c h in e ry . . T ra n s p o rta tio n E q u ip m e n t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S ep t. S e p t. S ep t. S ep t. S e p t. S ep t. S e p t. S ep t. S ep t. S ep t. S e p t. S ep t. S e p t. S e p t. S e p t. S ep t. S ep t. S e p t. S ep t. S ep t. S e p t. S e p t. S e p t. S e p t. Aug. . S e p t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S e p t. S e p t. S e p t. S ep t. S ep t. J u ly S ep t. Feb . Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb . Fe b . Feb. Fe b . Fe b . Feb . Feb . Feb . Feb . Feb. Feb . Feb . Feb. F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G Lo an s* A ll M e m b e r B a n k s ............................................ Sep t La rg e B a n k s .........................................................S e p t D e p o sits* A ll M e m b e r B a n k s ............................................ S ep t L a rg e B a n k s ................................ B a n k D e b its * / * * ......................... 1 32 .4 1 17 .4 114.7 104.0 131.2 119 .0 1 15 .7 1 01 .5 137 .8 140.7 124 .6 138 .8 1 47 .4 150 .8 104.5 139.1 8 7.4 113 .6 128.7 1 11 .4 1 20.3 110.7 128.8 1 13 .3 132.0 156 .6 1 05.7 1 37 .8 142.1 125.9 1 38 .2 1 47.3 150.4 103 .6 138.7 8 1.5 113.5 129.1 108.3 123 .2 113.1 1 30.4 1 14.4 1 30.7 1 55.0 116.2 135.5 150 .2 125.1 137.1 145 .9 146 .6 1 00.4 131 .9 8 3.8 5.2 4 .9 4 .9 4 .0 2 .7 4 0 .0 256 174 338 76 98 2 9 9 .4 2 4 1 .9 189.9 2 9 8 .4 294.1 2 .3 4 0.1 198 159 237 79 99 2 9 7 .0 2 4 3 .4 1 90.0 3 0 4 .5 2 9 3 .0 2 04 .5 156 .0 3 23 .5 3 6 1 .3 2 0 5 .9 186 .4 2 2 9 .9 2 7 3 .9 3 1 0 .6 4 6 8 .8 8 5 5 .9 392.1 2 .3 4 0.2 208 181 236 79 99 3 0 0 .0 2 47 .7 191 .5 3 0 1 .7 2 9 1 .9 2 2 6 .9 1 55 .9 3 2 0 .9 3 6 2 .5 2 06 .3 188.7 2 16 .5 2 72 .2 3 0 8 .0 4 7 8 .9 8 3 5 .0 4 1 6 .0 2 .3 4 0.7 249 287 132 .0 1 16 .9 114.4 103 .2 109.5 1 11 .9 112.5 128.1 112.7 132.1 1 17 .4 114.7 1 03 .4 110.3 112.3 1 12 .9 128.7 111.7 108.1 126 .7 114 .8 131.6 156.7 107 .6 137 .3 141 .4 124.5 138 .8 147.8 151.3 105 .6 135 .9 8 1 .4 109.6 127.5 113.7 130.3 155.1 120.0 120.6 110.0 4 .3 4 0 .7 One Year Ago 3.9 4 0 .2 M em b er B a n k L o a n s ............................................ S e p t. M em b er B a n k D e p o s i t s ................................S e p t. B a n k D e b i t s * * ......................................................... S e p t. 257 215 275 2 54 206 267 2 49 2 08 273 225 191 2 06 182 166 192 197 192 202 172 185 S e p t. S e p t. S e p t. S e p t. Aug. 153.3 128 .6 158.1 192.7 102.5 153.3 129 .0 159.7 1 93 .2 109 .0 155.3 129.3 160.3 198 .6 9 8 .8 S e p t. S e p t. 5 .5 40.1 5 .2 4 0.2 4 .8 4 0 .4 3.9 4 1.1 M em b er B a n k L o a n s ............................................ . S e p tt. M em b er B a n k D e p o s i t s ...................................... . S ep tt. B a n k D e b i t s * * ......................................................... S e p t 314 247 325 3 16 2 48 330 313 248 311 277 233 287 Sep t. . A ug. 164 128 169 195 164 153 167 153 . S e p t. Sep t. . S e p t. S e p t. . Aug. 127.8 1 09.2 136.3 135.7 8 4.3 110.1 128.2 127.6 109 .0 136.3 138 .5 8 3.4 1 28 .4 1 36.4 135.3 8 9.7 Se p t. . S ep t. 5.1 3 9.3 4 .8 3 9 .8 4 .6 3 9.6 3 .8 4 1.0 2 69 192 337 270 188 3 44 270 195 330 234 182 282 . S ep t. . A ug. 175 273 159 236 160 154 153 319 . S e p t. . S e p t. , S e p t. S e p t. 116.5 103.4 119.2 8 9.2 6 1.3 1 15.6 115.8 103.3 1 18.4 8 7.3 6 6.4 115.2 105.5 1 17.2 . S e p t. . S e p t. 7.1 4 0.7 4 0.0 4 0 .4 6 .3 4 1 .2 Se p t. Se p t. 249 188 244 252 189 2 48 2 48 191 244 218 171 179 202 201 201 186 190 249 129.3 129.3 129.2 124.3 7 9.9 129.1 130 .2 128.6 124.6 7 4.0 1 28.2 1 30 .5 1 27.2 1 34.0 7 1.5 F L O R ID A M a n u fa c tu rin g P a y ro lls ................................S e p t. F a rm C a sh R e c e i p t s .............................................A ug. EM PLO YM EN T U n e m p lo ym e n t R a te (P e rc e n t of W ork F o rc e ) . . Avg . W e e k ly H rs . in M fg. (H rs .) 151 .8 129.8 156 .0 212.8 106.1 F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G EM P LO YM EN T 202.6 1 56 .4 3 11 .7 368 .1 2 0 7 .2 1 77 .4 231.1 2 7 3 .6 3 1 0 .6 4 72 .7 8 6 5 .8 4 1 9 .9 212 82 113 2 88 .5 2 3 8 .8 185.5 2 81 .8 2 8 6 .8 N o n farm E m p lo y m e n t . . . . M a n u f a c t u r i n g ................................ N o n m a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . C o n s t r u c t i o n ................................ F a rm E m p lo y m e n t U n e m p lo ym e n t R a te (P e rc e n t of W ork F o rc e ) . . Avg. W e e k ly H rs . in M fg. (H rs .) EM PLO YM EN T N o n farm E m p lo y m e n t C o n s tru c tio n U n e m p lo ym e n t R a te 277 261 215 190 301 279 263 214 186 3 04 r 276 2 59 216 184 293 242 225 200 1 35 .6 147.7 87.1 F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G 222.1 161.7 3 0 5 .9 3 47 .6 199.6 190.6 2 07 .0 2 3 1 .0 283 .3 4 3 5 .9 778.1 4 53 .2 112.6 Avg . W e e k ly H rs. in Mfg. (H rs .) 101.2 118.5 8 7.8 7 1.3 6.6 6.8 88.8 7 5.9 F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G 176 245 M IS S IS S IP P I IN C O M E 180 267 F a rm C a s h R e c e ip t s EM PLO YM EN T . S e p t. . S e p t. 183 225 179 207 121.1 121.0 117 .9 .5 121.1 1 22.5 117 122.0 119.8 1 17 .0 124.3 6 8.9 Tw o M o nth s Ago F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G 111.2 112.6 112.0 1 17.6 A LA B A M A 178 4 .6 4 0 .4 O ne M onth Ago 123.5 7 5.6 120.3 8 1 .8 168 266 191 2 14 EM PLO YM EN T 119.3 117.1 120.3 132.1 6 9 .9 , S e p t. S e p t. 1 30 .0 128.5 130.7 125.6 7 5.9 NOVEMBER 1974, MONTHLY REVIEW O ne M onth Ago L a t e s t M o nth 1 97 4 U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te (P e rc e n t o f W o rk F o rc e ) . . A vg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H rs .) Tw o M o n th s Ago O ne Year Ago L a t e s t M o nth 1 974 Tw o M o n th s Ago O ne Year Ago EMPLOYMENT . S ep t. . Sep t. 4.1 39.1 4 .2 3 9.6 4 .2 3 9.7 3.7 4 0 .4 . S ep t. . Sep t. . S ep t. 261 259 264 218 262 258 217 2 60 239 205 204 N o n fa rm E m p l o y m e n t ......................... M a n u fa c tu rin g ...................................... N o n m a n u fa c t u r in g ................................ C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................... F a rm E m p lo y m e n t ...................................... U n e m p lo ym e n t R a te (P e rc e n t o f W ork F o rc e ) . . . A vg . W e e k ly H rs . in M fg. (H r s .) . F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G B a n k D e b its * / * * O ne M onth Ago 211 . . . . S e p t. . S ep t. . S ep t. . Aug. 128.1 117.7 134.0 133.4 9 5.7 128.5 118.2 134.2 135.7 9 3.8 128.2 1 17.9 134.0 135.7 8 7 .2 1 27 .5 120 .5 1 31 .4 1 33 .4 9 6.3 . . . . S e p t. . S e p t. 4.0 4 0.3 3.9 4 0.3 4 .6 4 0.7 3 .0 4 0 .6 . . . S ep t. . S ep t. 266 203 286 272 203 2 90 2 68 2 04 270 225 185 213 TEN N ESSEE F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G S ep t. Aug. F a rm C a s h R e c e ip t s 180 217 179 204 183 182 * F o r S ix t h D is t r ic t a re a o n ly ; o th e r to t a ls fo r e n tir e s ix s t a t e s M em ber B a n k Lo a n s* . . . . M em b er B a n k D e p o sits* . . . B a n k D e b i t s * / * * ...................................... 168 217 * * D a ily a v e ra g e b a s is f P r e lim in a r y d a ta . . r-R e v ise d N .A . N ot a v a ila b le N o te : In d e x e s fo r b a n k d e b its , c o n s tru c tio n c o n t ra c t s , c o tto n c o n s u m p tio n , e m p lo y m e n t, fa rm c a s h re c e ip ts , lo a n s , p e tro le u m p ro d u ctio n , a n d p a y r o lls : 1967 = 1 00. A ll o th e r in d e x e s : 1957-59 = 1 0 0 . S o u rce s: M a n u fa c tu rin g p ro d u ctio n e s tim a te d b y t h is B a n k ; n o n fa rm , m fg . an d non m fg . e m p ., m fg . p a y r o lls a n d h o u rs, an d u n e m p ., U .S . D ep t, o f L a b o r a n d co o p e ra tin g st a t e a g e n c ie s ; cotto n c o n s u m p tio n , U .S . B u re a u o f C e n s u s ; c o n s tru c tio n c o n t ra c t s , F . W . D odge D iv ., M cG ra w -H ill In fo rm a tio n S y s te m s C o .; p e tro l, p ro d ., U .S . B u re a u of M in e s ; fa rm c a s h re c e ip ts a n d fa rm e m p ., U .S .D .A . O th e r in d e x e s b ased on d a ta c o lle c te d b y t h is B a n k . A ll in d e x e s c a lc u la t e d b y t h is B a n k . ’ D ata b e n ch m a rk e d to Ju n e 1971 R e p o rt of C o n d itio n . D e b it s to D e m a n d D e p o s it A cco u n ts Insured Commercial Banks in the Sixth District (In T h o u s a n d s o f D o lla rs ) P e rce n t C h an ce P e r c e n t C h an g e S e p t. 1974 fro m Se p t. 1974 Aug. 1974 S e p t. 1973 Aug. S e p t. 1974 1973 Year to D ate 9 m o s. 197 4 fro m 1973 S T A N D A R D M ET R O P O L IT A N S T A T IS T IC A L A R E A S ’ B ir m in g h a m . G a d sd e n . . H u n ts v ille . . M o bile . . . . M o ntg o m ery . T u s c a lo o s a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S e p t. 1974 1 98,771 7 8,28 6 D othan S e lm a 5 ,1 67 ,4 51 103,975 3 9 0 ,0 2 9 1 ,1 72 ,9 86 6 76 ,6 72 2 3 1 ,6 1 0 4 ,7 8 0 ,3 2 6 1 10,0 38 4 05 ,5 53 1 ,2 76 ,1 85 7 23 ,7 91 2 46 ,1 62 3 ,0 8 6 ,6 8 4 7 0,47 7 2 72,821 9 1 2 ,0 3 4 5 50 ,5 98 2 01 ,3 45 8 1 1 ,9 3 4 4 6 4 ,6 0 7 6 4 9 ,9 4 2 3 7 1 ,9 8 1 + - 8 6 4 8 7 6 + 67 + 48 + 43 + 29 + 23 + 15 + 35 + 14 + 23 + 24 + 12 + 23 + 20 + 24 + 13 + 19 B a rto w - L a k e la n d W in te r H a ve n . . 7 7 9 ,1 0 9 D a yto n a B e a c h . . . 4 6 1 ,4 2 9 F t. L a u d e rd a le H o lly w o o d . . . . 1 ,8 0 7 ,9 5 5 F t. M y e r s ......................... 3 4 6 ,7 3 0 G a in e s v ille . . . . 2 6 7 ,0 1 3 J a c k s o n v ille . . . . 4 ,9 5 6 ,1 1 8 M elb o u m eT itu s v ille - C o c o a 4 4 6 ,6 0 9 M ia m i ................................ 7 ,0 2 5 ,3 2 5 O r l a n d o ................................1 ,4 1 3 ,2 3 2 P e n s a c o l a ......................... 5 0 7 ,1 9 2 S a ra s o ta ......................... 508 ,8 81 T a lla h a s s e e . . . . 9 0 2 ,3 6 9 T a m p a - S t. P e te . . 4 ,0 9 4 .3 9 8 W. P a lm B e a c h . . 1 ,1 4 3 ,9 2 9 2 ,0 7 8 ,7 2 5 3 7 2 ,0 8 6 2 8 6 ,8 1 2 4 ,9 8 7 ,0 1 8 r 1 ,5 9 3 ,5 7 0 2 7 0 ,9 1 0 2 2 5 ,8 5 4 3 ,6 6 1 ,3 7 7 -13 +13 +12 - 7 + 28 +26 - 7 + 18 +13 - 1 +35 + 21r 4 2 7 .9 2 8 7 ,6 0 7 ,6 6 1 1 ,6 0 6 ,9 9 6 5 5 3 ,3 6 3 5 65 ,0 91 9 3 0 ,6 9 6 3 ,9 2 1 ,3 2 8 1 ,1 8 0 ,6 4 5 3 6 7 ,4 5 8 6 ,0 3 1 ,1 4 7 1 ,3 1 0 ,9 3 6 3 9 4 ,4 7 4 4 2 7 ,2 4 8 7 5 6 .0 2 7 2 .9 4 5 ,3 8 2 1 ,0 9 4 ,7 7 4 +22 + 10 + 16 + 15 + 7 + 18 + 16 + 7 + 13 A l b a n y ................................ 1 94,081 A t l a n t a ................................ 1 8 .7 5 5 ,7 0 6 A u g u s t a ................................ 7 1 3 ,3 8 0 C o l u m b u s ......................... 4 4 7 ,4 8 9 M a c o n ................................ 8 0 6 ,7 3 4 S a v a n n a h ......................... 6 1 8 ,6 9 9 1 9 3 ,2 95 1 8,41 7,97 1 6 4 8 ,6 5 4 4 8 5 ,0 1 1 8 5 5 ,9 3 7 6 7 0 ,8 6 6 1 8 0 ,6 62 1 5 ,2 4 8 ,8 4 5 4 7 6 ,9 6 8 3 8 7 ,2 2 2 5 3 2 ,6 7 3 4 7 0 ,4 6 2 - 8 -12 + 8 + 29 + 19 + 19 + 39 +4 +8 + 0 +7 -3 +9 + + - 2 10 8 6 8 + 23 + 50 + 16 + 51 + 32 + 28 +28 +19 + 53 +20 1 1 0 6 5 + 28 + 71 + 31 +25 +35 + 21 + 43 + 21 + 21 + 21 A le x a n d ria B a to n R o u ge L a fa y e tt e . . L a k e C h a r le s N ew O rle a n s 2 9 3 ,9 3 7 1 ,8 6 6 ,4 7 9 3 3 2 .5 6 7 2 5 3 ,6 4 9 4 ,8 9 6 ,9 3 1 2 9 1 ,5 6 3 1 ,8 9 0 ,9 7 3 3 3 3 ,4 1 4 2 7 0 ,5 0 8 5 ,1 6 7 ,2 4 8 2 3 0 ,0 9 2 1 ,0 9 2 ,8 4 6 2 5 3 ,4 3 7 2 0 2 ,9 61 3 ,6 1 9 ,8 1 2 + - B ilo x i- G u lfp o rt . . . J a c k s o n ................................ 2 7 1 ,9 4 5 1 ,6 5 5 ,1 5 4 2 7 7 ,5 4 9 1 ,8 6 0 ,8 3 0 2 2 5 ,0 5 9 1 ,1 8 2 ,0 8 7 - 2 -1 1 C h a tta n o o g a . . . . 1 ,2 9 6 ,6 0 6 K n o x v i l l e ......................... 2 ,0 1 1 ,0 2 0 N a s h v i l l e ......................... 4 ,2 1 6 ,1 1 6 1 ,3 2 1 ,9 8 4 2 ,1 2 3 ,9 1 0 4 ,4 2 8 ,9 7 3 1 ,2 7 1 ,1 9 5 8 4 1 ,0 7 0 3 ,3 0 9 ,9 3 8 - 2 + 2 +14 - 5 + 1 3 9 + 11 7 - 5 + 27 + 28 O TH ER C EN T ER S A n n isto n ......................... S e p t. 197 4 fro m 1 2 1 .6 95 2 + 21 + 40 + 27 4 + + 31 + 11 B ra d e n to n . . . M onroe C o u n ty . . O c a l a ................................ S t. A u g u stin e . . S t. P e te rs b u rg . . T a m p a ......................... A th e n s B ru n s w ic k D alto n E lb e rto n G a in e s v ille G r iffin L a G ra n g e N ew n a n Rom e V a ld o sta A b b e v ille B u n k ie . . Ham m ond N ew Ib e ria P la q u e m in e T h ib o d a u x . . 182 ,4 50 8 5 ,4 8 9 1 99,507 4 8,05 3 1 ,0 3 2 ,8 5 6 2 ,1 1 7 ,8 3 0 A ug. 1974 1 99,746 8 1,95 0 2 1 1 ,7 8 8 9 2 ,2 3 6 1 93,013 5 7 ,2 2 4 r 9 40 ,1 39 2 ,0 2 7 ,7 7 3 S e p t. 1973 1 87 ,3 60 7 2 ,4 1 9 1 45 ,9 78 6 3,19 3 1 75,298 3 7 ,7 4 3 9 28 ,2 02 1 ,6 9 2 ,2 4 5 169 ,9 27 1 0 4 ,4 2 8 1 83 ,1 79 2 3 ,2 1 6 15 2 ,9 1 6 7 8,84 1 4 9 .0 5 6 56,32 1 1 4 4 ,0 35 1 1 8 ,3 5 9 1 6 9 ,0 52 8 9 ,2 7 2 185.381 2 3 ,8 9 0 1 75 ,0 28 8 8 ,0 4 5 4 3 ,2 6 0 5 3 ,9 3 8 151 ,4 73 1 1 7 ,5 83 1 3 6 ,9 1 3 8 7 ,8 0 4 1 8 2 ,1 93 2 1 ,1 7 4 12 8 ,5 0 4 6 8,93 1 5 6 ,1 7 7 5 8 ,0 6 8 1 26,781 9 3 ,7 3 7 18.61 3 16,36 3 9 7 ,6 8 3 6 9 ,9 2 8 3 1 ,5 8 7 4 0 ,2 0 4 16,36 7 14,75 0 9 4 ,4 8 9 7 2 ,9 1 2 2 5,97 7 4 1,51 1 1 6 ,1 3 8 9 ,4 7 0 7 8 ,2 5 7 5 5 ,0 0 5 2 5 ,1 0 2 3 3 ,1 1 4 H a ttie sb u rg L a u re l . . M e rid ia n N a tc h e z . . P a sc a g o u la M o ss P o in t V ic k s b u rg Y a zo o C ity 1 1 7 ,5 05 8 2 ,7 8 0 1 3 0 .8 98 6 0 ,9 9 8 1 4 6 ,0 79 8 0,66 1 135 ,5 25 6 2,63 1 1 14,301 6 0 ,4 8 2 1 0 7 ,9 23 5 3 ,2 7 9 16 7 ,2 4 0 9 6 ,6 9 6 5 0 ,1 5 4 159 ,1 13 B ris to l Jo h n so n C ity K in g sp o rt 1 4 8 ,8 86 1 4 8 .8 98 3 1 5 ,1 61 1 4 6 ,8 4 0 r 1 5 3 ,9 80 3 2 0 ,5 8 0 D is t ric t To ta l A la b a m a F lo r id a . . G e o rg ia . L o u is ia n a 1 M is s is s ip p i' Ten n essee1 86,011 4 4 ,8 8 8 A u g . S e p t. 197 4 1973 - Year to D a te 9 m o s. 1 97 4 fro m 1973 0 4 + 6 + 8 + 10 +11 -1 4 - 7 + 3 -1 6 + 10 + 4 + 25 + 35 + 14 + 27 + 11 +25 +18 + 41 + 3 + 39 + 7 + 17 + 1 + 17 + 24 + 19 + 6 + 8 - 1 + 1 +5 - 3 -1 3 -1 0 + 13 + 4 - 5 + 1 + 10 + 19 + 14 -1 3 + 16 + 19 + 22 + 11 -3 - 6 + 14 + 26 + 11 + 16 + 14 + 15 +11 + 73 + 3 + 25 - 4 + 27 + 22 + 26 3 + 21 -2 0 + 3 + 3 + 37 + 7 + 32 + 14 + 21 + 4 + 9 + 7 + 16 +21 +12 + 14 + 13 13 6 ,1 3 9 + 5 6 9 ,4 9 9 + 1 2 4 3,66 1 + 1 2 + 23 + 39 + 15 + 15 + 25 + 27 1 0 1 .7 2 3 1 5 4 ,2 2 0 2 4 3 ,3 3 0 + 46 - 3 + 30 + 6r + 2 + 18 3 + 27 +27 + 1 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 6 - 4 + 42 + 18 + 24 + 41 + 30 + 39 + 26 + 26r +25 + 25 + 26 + 37 8 7 ,1 1 4 ,3 4 5 9 0 ,2 4 1 .7 7 4 r 6 8 ,3 5 1 ,0 4 2 1 0 ,5 2 5 ,5 3 2 2 7 ,2 1 8 ,1 6 5 2 5 ,6 9 2 ,7 8 9 9 ,1 7 2 ,6 0 2 3 ,4 8 5 ,7 4 4 1 1 ,0 1 9 ,5 1 3 1 0 ,4 0 8 ,6 9 8 7 ,4 2 3 ,1 3 0 2 8 ,2 9 1 ,3 0 1 r 2 3 ,0 2 8 ,8 6 1 2 6 ,7 1 7 ,7 8 6 2 0 ,7 4 5 ,5 2 8 9 ,5 8 9 ,4 7 9 6 ,5 2 3 ,2 1 8 3 ,7 1 5 ,6 3 3 2 ,6 8 3 ,9 6 7 1 1 ,5 1 8 ,8 7 7 7 ,9 4 6 ,3 3 8 + 1 - 3 - 2 - 'District portion only. : C o n fo rm s to S M S A d e fin itio n s a s of D e c e m b e r 3 1 , 1972. r-R e v ise d F ig u re s fo r so m e a re a s d iffe r s lig h tly fro m p re lim in a ry fig u re s p u b lis h e d in “ B a n k D e b its a n d D e p o sit T u rn o v e r " b y B o a rd o f G o v e rn o rs o f th e F e d e ra l R e s e rv e S y s te m . FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 1 79 D is t r ic t B u s in e s s C o n d it io n s S lu g g is h n e s s p e rm e a te s the S o u th e a st's e c o n o m y . W e a k n e s s in m a n u fa c t u r in g e m p lo y m e n t is sp r e a d in g to p re v io u s ly u n a ffe c te d in d u strie s, as e v id e n c e d b y the risin g u n e m p lo y m e n t rate. V a lu e o f c o n str u c tio n c o n tract a w a r d s in c re a se d , t h o u g h still at a sig n ific a n tly lo w level. T h e c o n s u m e r se c to r re m a in s w e a k . B a n k le n d in g v o lu m e h a s re c e d e d ; interest c h a rg e s o n b u s in e s s lo a n s h a v e e d g e d d o w n . D e p o s it in f lo w s at b a n k s a n d sa v in g s a n d lo a n a sso c ia tio n s stre n gth e n e d . Farm in c o m e re d u c tio n s c a u se d b y a sh a rp d e c lin e in liv e sto c k p ric e s w e re p a rtia lly o ffse t b y g o o d c ro p y ie ld s a n d h ig h e r prices. T h e recen t w e a k n e ss in la b o r m a rke ts is sp r e a d ing. N o n fa r m e m p lo y m e n t d r o p p e d sligh tly. C o n stru ctio n jo b s in c h e d u p w a rd in S e p te m b e r b u t re m ain e d b e lo w y e a r -a g o levels. M a n u f a c t u r in g e m p lo y m e n t fell a gain . Job d e c lin e s w e re p o ste d in a h o st o f ind ustries, m o st n o ta b ly in w o o d a n d w o o d p ro d u c ts; stone, clay, a n d gla ss; textiles; a n d app are l. T h e u n e m p lo y m e n t rate rose to 5.2 p erce n t in S e p te m b e r fro m 4.9 p e rce n t in A u g u s t, v e rify in g the w e a k e n in g la b o r m arket. A y e a r a g o the rate w a s 4.0 percent. T h e v a lu e o f total c o n stru c tio n co n tra c ts w a s u p in S e p te m b e r b u t w a s w e ll b e lo w le v e ls o f earlier p e rio d s. In the resid en tial sector, a sm a ll increase in the v a lu e o f con tracts, the first in five m o n th s, w a s a c c o m p a n ie d b y sm a ll net in flo w s o f d e p o sits to sa v in g s a n d lo an a sso c ia tio n s. P e rm a n e n t m o rt g a g e rates o n s in g le -fa m ily u nits have te n d e d to level off. T h e v a lu e o f n o n re sid e n tia l c o n tracts ju m p e d as a result o f tw o large con tracts, o n e fo r an electric p o w e r p la n t in L o u isia n a a n d o n e fo r a p a rtm e n t' b u ild in g s in Florida. C o n su m er b o r r o w in g fr o m banks in c re a se d m o d e ra te ly in S e p te m b e r. W e a k n e s s in a u to le n d in g a gain o ffse t the g r o w th in le n d in g to p u rc h a se Note: Data on which statements are based have been adjusted 180 n o n a u to m o t iv e c o n s u m e r g o o d s . D e b t re p a y m e n ts return ed to trend, f o llo w in g s o m e s lu g g is h n e s s in the p re v io u s m o n th . N e w car sale s d e c lin e d , as d id d e p a rtm e n t store sa le s after the effects o f in fla tio n w e re re m o v e d . By late O c t o b e r , m o st la rg e D istric t b a n k s h a d re d u c e d the ir p rim e le n d in g rate to 11V4 p erce n t. B a n k le n d in g w a s relative ly w e a k t h r o u g h o u t m o st o f O c to b e r , after a d v a n c in g o n ly s lig h tly the m o n th before. D e p o s it in flo w s stre n g th e n e d d u r in g O c tober. T h e recent ga in in p a s s b o o k sa v in g s has m o re than o ffse t the lo ss in A u g u s t a n d S e p te m b e r. Prices o f farm p r o d u c t s h e ld rather ste a d y fro m A u g u s t to S e p te m b e r, w ith r isin g c ro p p ric e s o ff se ttin g s o m e sh a rp d e c lin e s in th e liv e s to c k sector. H o w e v e r, the p ric e in d e x o f all c o m m o d it ie s w a s 10 p e rce n t b e lo w the y e a r -a g o level. C r o p p ro sp e c ts re m a in e d bright, eve n t h o u g h s o m e early frost d a m a g e to so y b e a n s w a s rep orte d. P h e n o m e n a l y ie ld s h a ve p r o d u c e d a r e c o r d -b r e a k in g p e a n u t crop. H ig h fee d p rice s c o n tin u e d to fo rce liv e sto c k to m arket, w h ile cattle p rice s d e c lin e d fu rth er in O c to b e r . Farm cash receip ts h a ve d r o p p e d b e lo w y e a r -a g o levels, after b e in g sh a rp ly h ig h e r d u r in g the first h a lf o f the year. whenever possible to eliminate seasonal influences. NOVEMBER 1974, MONTHLY REVIEW
@FedFRASER