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Monthly Review A t la n t a , G e o r g ia Novem ber • 1959 Farm Income Sustained in 1959 D is tr ic t E a rn in g s W ill H o ld Iso in this issue: DISTRICT DEPARTMENT STORES FLEX THEIR MUSCLES PAYING FOR PUBLIC SCHOOLS GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC TRENDS IN LOUISIANA DISTRICT BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS SIXTH DISTRICT STATISTICS SIXTH DISTRICT INDEXES perw */anta a t L a s t Y e a r ’s L e v e l D e s p ite H ig h e r C o s ts Farmers in the six states that lie wholly or partly in the Sixth Federal Reserve District may have another profitable year. Judging from trends in harvests and sales to date, based on estimates by this Bank, farmers’ earnings will compare favorably with those last year; their sales could exceed the $3.3 billion mark reached in 1958 by at least 10 percent. Net income, or payments after all cash expenses have been met, how ever, probably will not rise above last year’s because lower direct Gov ernment payments and higher production costs will likely counteract increased sales. If the region’s net farm income is maintained this year, it will be in contrast to the national trend which, according to the United States Department of Agriculture, is expected to show a substan tial drop from last year. Major Sources of Income Farmers who rely heavily on cash crops, especially tobacco, cotton, and citrus, can look for their gross sales to be well above those last year. Receipts from the sale of livestock and poultry products, on the other hand, may be substantially lower, as poultry, egg, and hog prices are averaging well below 1958. Farmers whose incomes depend largely on sales of those items may find it more difficult to meet their financial obligations as they approach a new year. Cash Crops th e Booster Early this year farmers had to decide how they could best use 2.3 million crop acres they deposited in the Gov ernment’s acreage reserve program last year. The choice was easy for many farmers: They planted the additional acres to crops they had previously grown— cotton, tobacco, corn, and rice. After all crops were planted this year, cotton, the region’s most widely grown cash crop, covered 44 percent more acres than last year. Many farmers in North Florida, South Georgia, and East Tennessee depend heavily on tobacco for income so they planted 14 percent more tobacco. In Louisiana farm ers upped their sugar cane and rice plantings—important crops in that state—by more than a tenth. Old man weather smiled on the South again this year; thus, crops are producing high yields. The region’s cotton farmers are making out bet ter than its other growers; they expect to average nearly a bale an acre for a total of around four million bales, or 61 percent more than last year. Gains in tobacco, rice, citrus, and many other crops are being made, but they are overshadowed by the large gain in cotton production. Despite gains in output, crop prices are holding up well for most farmers. Prices received by Florida’s citrus growers will average above those last year, and declines in prices of many other farm crops are Preliminary Estimated Changes in Cash Receipts 1959 from 1958, Selected Commodities Sixth District States cheerful; existing prices are far above those for other live stock groups. High beef prices probably will lift collective gross beef sales for the region even though in most areas fewer beef animals are reaching the market. Only farmers in Mississippi expect an increase in shipments. Finally, milk production and prices in most states probably will hold near last year’s. Dairy farmers in Florida likely will be the only group to significantly increase milk sales. Government Payments Lower being minimized by price-support activities. Increased crop sales, therefore, will offset losses in livestock sales. Market ings of livestock and poultry products will be larger this year than last but prices will be lower. On balance, live stock will contribute less to farmers’ gross income than in 1958. Hogs top the list for market gains and their selling price likely will show the sharpest decline. In Tennessee, where hogs are an important source of cash, farmers will sell an estimated 19 percent more hogs for roughly 16 percent fewer dollars than were grossed from hogs last year. Since pork production and prices are following the same pattern in other District states, similar losses will be encountered over the entire region. Poultry and eggs also are in full supply, especially in Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi, but low prices may reduce receipts from both. Farmers substantially reduced their chick placements for broilers recently, and prices are improving but in general the reductions were too late to improve poultry incomes this year. Many farmers, there fore, who depend heavily on poultry sales for their income are finding prices painfully low. Those farmers selling beef animals this year are more Livestock and Poultry Receipts the Damper Beginning this month, each issue of the Monthly Review will include a brief discussion of economic conditions in an individual District state. This month’s discussion on conditions in Louisiana is found on page 8. The December Review will carry a summary on Florida’s economy. Direct payments to farmers in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee totaled $199 mil lion in 1958. Of that amount, $145 million went to farm ers for leasing crop land to the Government under the acreage reserve Soil Bank Act. The balance was distrib uted among the wool, sugar, and conservation programs. Since no payments were made for leased row crop acres this year, District state farmers received substantially less in direct payments. Paradoxically, the cut in direct payments has been a stimulant to farm income because termination of the acre age reserve program is almost solely responsible for the increased row crop plantings this year. Heaviest payments last year for leased land were made to farmers in Ala bama, Georgia, and Mississippi— $36 million for Alabama and $35 million each for Georgia and Mississippi. Farm ers in those three states boosted their cotton acreage this year almost a million acres. Production Costs Higher The increased volume of farm products marketed this year required larger amounts of fertilizer, seed, and in secticides, and although prices for those items have re mained relatively stable, farmers paid out considerably more money for their supplies. Not all prices held steady: Farmers generally found interest and wages higher than in 1958, and also they paid higher taxes. That the incomes for this region’s farmers will not fall this year as much as those for the nation’s farmers is not surprising when one examines the sources of farm income. Livestock and livestock product sales will suffer the big gest loss this year and those sales make up roughly 60 percent of the nation’s cash farm receipts. Although live stock and poultry have attained a prominent place in District agriculture, they still play second fiddle to crops. During the 1954-56 period, crop sales produced 64 per cent of farmers’ cash receipts in this region. Cotton, citrus, tobacco, and rice are important sources of regional farm income and sales of those crops will be up this year. Nationally, wheat and small feed-grain sales will be sub stantially lower this year than last year but few farmers in this area grow commercial grain. The small grain crop that is helping pull national farm income down will have virtually no effect on District farmers’ income. Taken generally, the region’s farmers are in a better financial position than they were at this time last yearThey have now had two relatively good years to help them pay debts carried over from the low income years of 1956 and 1957. XT _ N. C arson Branan • 2 • District Department Stores Flex Their Muscles Department store sales have recovered the ground they lost during the recent recession. Until March, the recovery in the District closely paralleled that in the nation. From March through August, however, sales showed a stronger and more persistent rise in the District than in the nation. Then, in September, declines occurred in both regions, but the first three weeks of October brought them up slightly. These movements in department store sales measure con sumer spending at retail stores that employ 25 or more persons and carry all the merchandise lines shown in the bottom chart. Within the District, a wide variation in the department store sales recovery has occurred this year. This variation is depicted in the tables presented at the back of each issue of the Monthly Review, where percentage changes and seasonally adjusted indexes of department store sales are given for major areas. Increases in some states have been more than twice as great as gains registered by other states. Sales in Florida, Mississippi, and Tennessee have advanced more during the first nine months of this year over that period last year than other District states or the nation. Performances among District cities have shown an even wider variation. In a few areas, sales have actually been running under last year’s, whereas some cities have registered phenomenal gains. Some of the largest increases in department store sales have been made in District cities where store facilities have been expanded or where new stores have been built. Such improvements can bring in entirely new business because a new building in a new location may attract people who were previously too far from the department store to patronize it regularly. Floor space additions can also increase sales by enabling the stores to carry lines and assortments of merchandise which consumers may want but which were previously not carried because of space limitations. Additional facilities, then, at least par tially explain some of the phenomenal sales increases in a few District cities. Yet, sales at stores that have added new facilities account for no more than about onefourth of the increase in total District department store sales between March and August of this year. The stronger performance of department store sales in the District than nationally since March is partly attribu table to heftier percentage increases in consumer income and spending here. When people earn more, they usually spend more, and when folks spend more, they generally do not forget to spend more at department stores. One measure of what people earn is manufacturing payrolls. From March through August seasonally adjusted payrolls increased more in the District than in the nation. As might be expected, the larger percentage increase in District consumer earnings also gave rise to a greater con sumer spending gain at retail stores in the District than nationally. Sales seasonally adjusted, of firms operating °ne to ten retail stores increased more from March through August in the Sixth District than they did in the United States. These sales data are supplied in unadjusted form to the Federal Reserve Banks by the Bureau of the Department store sales were stronger in the District than in the nation from March through August. . . September brought a sharp decline, however, to both the District and the nation. uC....... Within the District, the recovery in department store sales this year has varied widely, 0 1 2 Percent Increase, 1959 over 1958, First Nine Month* 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 II 12 13 14 Florida M ississ i ppi Tennessee A la b a m a G eorgia Louisiana Sixth D istrict United S ta te s And among departments, even more. Percent Increase, >959 over 1958, First Nine Months W omen's a M isse s’ Men's a Boy's Home Women's a M isses' Accessories Smoll Piece Goods a Census and provide an indication of trends in certain types of consumer spending, including spending for the types of merchandise sold in department stores. Another frequently used measure of general spending is bank debits, that is, amounts spent by check. So far this year, the District states that have registered the largest gains in department store sales over the same period last year have also shown the greatest increases in bank debits. Likewise, sales have increased most in those cities which have enjoyed the largest gains in general spending, after allowance is made for new department store facilities. W in f ie l d H u t t o n Paying for Public Schools Financial Challenge to Southern Governments Education is a process through which we acquire facts, skills, and sometimes even wisdom. It begins at birth, goes on in school, and continues throughout life in one form or another. The knowledge absorbed through formal instruction in public elementary and high schools is only part of our education but often it may be a crucial part. For some, this instruction may be their only exposure to organized thought; for others, it may stimulate or dis courage further study in particular subject-matter areas. Public education, therefore, is of paramount importance to all, since it may influence the direction in which our lives are started and may play a large part in determin ing our future. The importance and desirability of a public education system of high quality is generally accepted by parents, governments, and just about all other segments of our society. As a concept, education is as unassailable as motherhood and the flag. Unlike these other totally en dorsed symbols, however, public education is something that must be bought and paid for. Taxpayers and govern ments are becoming increasingly conscious of this as everhigher levels of spending are required to keep up with existing school needs. The Size of the Financial Load Current and capital spending for public elementary and secondary schools by state and local governments that lie wholly or partly within the Sixth Federal Reserve District —Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee— amounted to about $1.2 billion for the school year ending 1959, more than twice the amount spent in 1950. Current expenditures—spending to finance daily school operations—have risen sharply and steadily in recent years and, in an average year, account for about Sources of School Funds By Type of Government Unit Sixth District States * 300 200 100 0 300 IOO Sourer U. S. Dept of Heatth, Education, and Welfare, Office sf Education, 80 percent of total spending. Capital outlays for school sites, buildings, and equipment vary much more from year to year than current expenditures because they are to some extent postponable. Despite year-to-year varia tions, however, there has been a definite upward trend in capital outlays in most District states. The rate of increase in total spending for schools since 1950 has varied considerably by District state. There have been developments common to many states, how ever, which have stimulated an ever-increasing volume of spending. The clamor to upgrade the quality of education by raising standards of teaching, expanding curricula, and improving facilities and the rising school costs associated with an increase in the general price level have created pressures for more spending in all District states. In addi tion, increases and shifts in population, particularly in Florida, Louisiana, and Georgia, have made the financial burden of these states even heavier. How to pay for an expanding public education system is a question many state and local government officials are pondering over. Sources of Funds State governments are bearing the major share of current school expenditures in all District states. Estimates of revenue for all public elementary and secondary schools in District states for the school year 1957-58 indicate that state governments accounted for 66 percent of all revenue; local municipalities and the Federal Government accounted for 29 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Funds from state and Federal sources are grants provided through appropriations by state legislative and national boards from their respective tax sources. School funds from local sources are derived chiefly from property taxes. Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana state governments each accounted for about 70 percent of total school rev enue in the school year 1957-58; the Tennessee and Florida state governments made up 60 percent, and the Mississippi state government accounted for only 55 per cent of total school revenue. The share of school revenue derived from District state governments was much greater than in most other states throughout the nation. Thirtyseven state governments provided a smaller proportion of total school revenue in 1957-58 than any District state, with shares ranging from 7 percent in Nebraska to 53 percent in Texas. The greater reliance outside the South on local governments as a source of school revenue implies a property base of higher value or a tradition of higher assessment rates in relation to market value of property or both. In states inside and outside the District, however, there appears to be a definite trend toward greater reli ance on state governments as a source of school revenue. Over the two decades 1937 to 1957 the proportion of total school revenue from state sources throughout the nation increased from 30 percent to 41 percent; the pro portion from Federal sources increased from 1 to 3 per•4 • < cent, and the proportion from local sources declined from 69 to 56 percent. Funds for capital outlays, in contrast to current expend itures, are provided primarily from local sources. Of the more than $1.0 billion of capital outlays made by gov ernmental units in District states during the period 195057, almost 70 percent represented expenditures by local governments financed mainly through the sale of bonds. Each District state relied primarily on local financing ex cept Georgia, which made extensive use of the device of school building authorities. Capital spending in individual states was closely correlated with increases in school en rollment and ranged from $54 million in Mississippi to $294 million in Florida. A Pertinent Question The increase in spending in southern schools in recent years has been associated with the need to provide a better education for a larger number of students. States outside the South have also been working and spending to raise public education standards. Therefore, a perti nent question to ask ourselves is, Where do we stand now? How does spending for schools in the South compare with that in other states, and what do such differences as may appear imply about differences in the quality of education? Sixth District states were spending less per pupil in 1958-59 than the national average, as measured by aver age current expenditures per pupil in average daily attend ance. The average amount spent per pupil in District states ranged from $164 in Alabama to $330 in Louisiana, com pared with an average of $340 for the nation. Part of the variation in the average current expenditure per pupil among states reflects differences in teachers’ salaries. The average salary for teachers in Florida and Louisiana is somewhat above the national average of $4,775. Average salaries in the other four District states are substantially below the national average, and range from $3,575 in Tennessee to $3,885 in Alabama. Variations in average expenditures among states are not, of course, synonymous with differences in the quality of education, because of differences in the abilities of in structors, curricula, and facilities. Quality of education is a rather intangible concept which cannot be precisely quantified. Nevertheless, differences in average expendi tures, and particularly differences in teachers’ salaries, raise some questions that should not be ignored. Perhaps the major question is whether states in which teachers’ salaries are substantially lower than the national average can retain and attract instructors of a caliber essential to an education system of high quality. States' Ability to Pay Although the average current expenditure per pupil in District states still lags behind the average for the nation, intensive efforts have been made to catch up. Mississippi, for example, which was the second lowest state in terms of average expenditures in 1958-59 had, nevertheless, in creased expenditures at a faster rate than any other state in the nation over the last decade. Mississippi’s perform ance in terms of “rate of increase” is typical of the other District states. Efforts to raise the average expenditure per pupil in District states closer to the national level are hampered because the District has a larger number of children to educate in relation to population than the nation as a whole and has a smaller income base from which to ob tain school revenue. School enrollment as a percent of civilian population in Georgia, for example, was higher in 1957-58 than in any other state in the nation and in all other District states was higher than the national average. Per capita District income, however, amounted to $1,511 in 1958, compared with $2,057 for the nation; it varied considerably among District states moreover, ranging from $1,053 in Mississippi to $1,876 in Florida. The ability of governments to spend on schools or to provide any other public services is closely related to the income and wealth of the state. Thus, even though District states in the aggregate have spent a larger share of their total income on schools than the nation, their average expenditure per pupil has been smaller. Pressures for Spending Continue It would appear that District governments must continue to run fast just to keep up with the needs of an expand ing school population. If Census projections are on the mark, the District school population, children between the ages of 5 and 17, will rise about 17 percent between 1957 and 1963, with particularly sharp increases forecast for Florida, Louisiana, and Georgia. School problems would, of course, be further complicated by a continua tion of the movement of families from rural to metropoli tan areas, and pressures for additional improvements in education programs. Where will the funds needed to finance an expanded school program come from? Can we ask a generation of youngsters to wait for a better education until the South’s economic fortunes improve further? Or, should taxpayers and governments count the cost of the education program they want and make sacrifices necessary to attain it? The ideological values of the democratic and com munist systems are now being heatedly debated on the world stage. We must be prepared not only to defend our way of life intellectually, but to take the offensive. And to do battle in the world of ideas requires a wellinformed, educated population. A l f r e d P. J o h n s o n •5 • Government An Increasingly Important Source of Income The casual observer, as well as the careful student of economic change in this country, has undoubtedly been aware of developments in recent times that have increased demands for government services. Population has been increasing rapidly; there has been a trend toward urbani zation; increased emphasis has been given to the need for more and better education; road building has been stimu lated by the rising number of automobiles; war and inter national tensions have accentuated the need for defense spending; an increased sense of responsibility for dealing with problems of economic fluctuations and growth has evolved. As governments have tried to meet the demands arising from these and other developments, a larger and larger share of the nation’s income flow has been chan neled through government. A brief review of available figures leaves no doubt that this has also occurred in the Sixth Federal Reserve District, which comprises Alabama, Florida, Georgia, the southern halves of Louisiana and Mississippi, and the eastern two-thirds of Tennessee. Income from Government Up More Than Total Income That government has become a more important source of income over the last three decades in Sixth District states is apparent from a comparison of the trend in total per sonal income and the trend in that part of total income received from government. Total personal income has trended strongly upward, as the chart shows, but the amount received from government sources has shown a greater increase, more than doubling in relative impor tance in the period for which figures are available. Of every $100 in personal income received in 1958, $13.90 came from a governmental source, compared with only $6.30 in 1929. The long-run trend toward increased governmental im portance is unmistakable, although it has not been steadily upward. Indeed, government sources of income, as one might expect, were actually much more important during World War II, when enormous military expenditures were being made. Although a sharp decline followed the end of the war, government as a source of personal in come in Sixth District states has shown an increase in relative importance in the last ten years or so. Defense Spending Important It is clear from the detail shown on the chart that war and postwar needs for defense expenditures have had a dra matic impact on government as a source of income, specifically, of course, the Federal Government. Military pay received in the Sixth District states showed an enor mous increase in the period immediately preceding and during World War II. Even after an initial sharp postwar decline, it was still nearly 13 times the volume of military pay in the late 1930’s. Following the outbreak of the Korean War, military pay more than tripled by 1952, but since then, it has remained relatively stable in this District. The gyrations in military pay associated with war were unavoidable, but they do, nevertheless, suggest that the economy had some severe adjustments to make as the impact of the up and down movements was felt. Perhaps the surprising thing is that, in spite of the sharp fluctua tions in military pay in the last half of the 1940’s, total personal income in the District dropped only slightly in one year, 1946, resuming its upward movement thereafter. With military pay remaining relatively stable since 1952, the Sixth District economy has not had to absorb the shock of sharp fluctuations in personal income from this source. Granted that international tensions require large military expenditures, the entire nation has a vital eco nomic interest in a realistic long-range defense program whose purposes would include avoidance of sharp fluctua tions, such as those shown for this District in the chart. A look at the postwar record reveals that the District has an even greater interest of this type, for military pay is considerably more important as a source of personal income here than it is for the country as a whole. In the 1956-58 period, it provided 3.7 percent of total income received by individuals in Sixth District states, compared with 2.2 percent in the nation. The importance of defense-associated employment as a source of personal income is even greater than these figures imply, for they do not include income of civilian employees at military establishments. Such income is in cluded as a part of total Federal civilian personal in•6 • Personal Income from Government As Percent of Total, 1929 and 1959 ^ &r-■.rr*.■>,_ * ' » v • <■/. /■ District States and United Slates (x*3 State S Local Fed. C ivilian [~ ] Fed Military I ’59 Miss. come shown separately in the chart. From available em ployment figures, it is apparent that about half of the civilian pay received from the Federal Government is defense-associated. In the war years, of course, it was un doubtedly much higher. It seems probable, therefore, that fluctuations in defense-associated civilian employment were responsible for the sharp changes in Federal civilian personal income during the 1940’s. Certainly defense-associated civilian employment is a particularly important source of income in many of the areas surrounding the 90-odd major military installations located in Sixth District states. Civil service data show that approximately 13,000 civilians are employed at the 10 Navy and Air Force bases in the Pensacola trade and banking area, which comprises the 13 western-most coun ties of the Florida panhandle. Similarly, about 15,000 civilians are employed at the Warner Robins Air Force Base near Macon, Georgia, and roughly the same number work at the Redstone Arsenal near Huntsville, Alabama. Visualizing the income paid such numbers of civilian em ployees, in addition to the military personnel stationed at these installations, one begins to see what defense expen ditures mean to the economies of the surrounding areas. Some idea of the dependence of particular areas on de fense expenditures can be obtained by noting figures for the Pensacola trade and banking area for 1954, when personal income of Government employees accounted for over 40 percent of total personal income. Other Federal Activities Important While the Sixth District has seriously felt the effect of war and increased international tensions, it has also felt the rising trend in nondefense activities of the Federal Gov ernment. This can be inferred from the longer-run upward trend in personal income received by Federal civilian em ployees in Sixth District states. In 1929, personal income paid to civilian employees accounted for 1.6 percent of total personal income, whereas in 1958 it accounted for 4.0 percent. In recent years, civilian pay of Federal em ployees has exceeded military pay, the Federal Govern ment providing in all about $7.50 of every $100 received by residents of Sixth District states. “What,” the reader may ask, “is the basis for the high volume of civilian personal income?” We can obtain a reasonably accurate picture by looking at available infor mation on civilian employment of the Federal Govern ment, which averaged about 257,000 in District states dur ing 1958. Of this total, roughly one-half, as mentioned above, is estimated to be employed by defense establish ments. To obtain some idea of the type of work engaged in by the remainder, we can look at some departmental employment figures for mid-1958. At that time, 41 per cent were employed by the Post Office Department, 16 percent by the Veterans’ Administration, and approxi mately 12 percent by the Tennessee Valley Authority, these three agencies thus accounting for nearly 70 percent of nondefense-associated Federal employment. The Agri culture, Commerce, and Treasury Departments accounted for another 20 to 25 percent. Don't Forget State and Local Governments As important as the Federal Government is as a source of personal income, one should not forget the numerous state and local governments. During the 1957 Census of Gov ernments, more than 4,200 state and local governmental units were counted. Together, they bulk large as a source of personal income, providing in 1958 nearly as much in come as the combined total of Federal military and civil ian payrolls. Back in the early 1930’s, of course, before Federal civilian payrolls began a rapid rise and defense spending brought military payrolls to the recent high volume, state and local governments provided more than twice as much personal income as Federal Government. Besides showing the past and current importance of income from state and local governments in relation to Federally derived personal income, a review of the last three decades also shows that personal income from state and local governments has increased more rapidly than total personal income. As a result, state and local govern ments provided $6.40 of every $100 received by individ uals in 1958, compared with $4.40 in 1929. It is also ap parent that such income has not fluctuated as violently as Federal payrolls have. State and local governments, there fore, have provided a much more stable source of income to District residents than has the Federal Government during the period under review. Finally, personal income from state and local governments has had a sharper up ward trend in the postwar period than it did in the prewar period. It is the state and local governments that feel most directly the impact of greater demand for governmental services associated with a rapidly growing population and urbanization, for improved highways, and for more and better educational services, some of the factors mentioned in the opening paragraph of this article as explaining the national trend toward increasing government activity. With pressures from such demands increasingly acute in the postwar period, it is not surprising that the trend in income payments by state and local governments has been more sharply upward in this period. One important aspect of the greater demand for governmental services, increas ing expenditures for education, is treated more fully in Continued on Page 10 •7 • Output of crude petroleum products in Louisiana has increased sharply since mid-1958; Economic Observers in the Pelican state of Louisiana have seen mixed economic trends this year. Although some business indicators rose rapidly, others fell with equal momentum. Weaknesses in foreign trade, construction, and employ ment have been offset by strength in other indicators. Petroleum Industry Sets Record United States And larger amounts of electric power were produced to run Louisiana's factories/ offices/ and homes this year than last year. Not much change has occurred in farmers' cash receipts, but the value of construction contracts awarded has dropped slightly below the total for the eight-month period last year. 1959 Compared w.th 1950, First Eight Month* Millions of Ootlors Total Crops Livestock Total Residential Other Trade through Louisiana's ports has declined from last year—the gain in imports failed to offset the loss in exports. Ptrctrf Chanq. 1959 fron* 1958. Firtt Eight Months -'5 -5 ______0 n i i__-10 i i ri i i it it i i | i i i i+5| r ti +10 i | it i +15 ii iii i Im p o rts L ou isia n a Louisiana is the nation’s third largest petroleum produc ing state and a large portion of the state’s economic strength this year is massed in that industry. Because the industry is highly mechanized, it uses vast sums of capital and generates a widespread economic impact; never theless, it directly provides relatively few jobs. In August less than 6 percent of the nonfarm workers were employed in the oil fields. Yet these workers are currently produc ing over a million barrels of crude oil daily, three-fourths of it in southern Louisiana. Progress in Louisiana’s oil industry this year has been notable, far outstripping that in the nation. All told, the oversupply of oil products in this country and abroad underlies a declining trend in national crude oil output, but the Pelican state’s oil producers have enjoyed an 11percent gain in their output since the year began. This gain was made possible partly by the state’s large oil re sources. Not only has exploration drilling been very suc cessful but Louisiana wells are the highest producers in the nation. In 1957, the average daily output per well for the southern portion of that state was almost ten barrels above that in any other oil-producing state. Electric power companies also have been a growth industry in Louisiana this year. Based on sales for the first seven months, their business rose 11 percent above the same period last year. Power companies’ sales records indicate that industrial plants spurred the growth in their sales this year; such plants bought 13 percent more electricity than during the first seven months in 1958. Commercial and residential users, on the other hand, upped their purchases by only 9 percent. Construction activity is trailing events in 1958, yet within the industry there are mixed trends. Judging from contract awards, home building fared better during the first eight months this year than last year, but business construction lagged. In August the value of business contracts awarded was about $24 million below the leve last August. Farmers in Louisiana, on the other hand, are holding their own; their sales during the first eight months change little from last year. Meanwhile, even though costs are up, with a large cotton and rice crop already being har vested, they should end the year with as much income as they earned last year. International Trade Weakens E x p o rts L ou isia n a I n i 11i l l l I h i 1 1 i i i i I i i i i 1 11 i i I i 1 1 i Net foreign trade through Louisiana’s ports has declined this year. True, the value of items brought into the country has risen slightly, but the rise has been more than offset by a drop in exports. New Orleans, Louisiana’s largest port, also is the nation’s largest port for grain shipments as well as a •8 • j ; n Louisiana major port for general cargo items. Although officials do not expect any drop in grain exports this year, they do fore see a significant decline in general cargo trade. Louisiana’s ports are apparently losing some of this trade to the newly opened St. Lawrence Seaway. This loss adversely affects port activity: It reduces the dollar value of cargo and it lowers the number of workers needed. Customarily more labor is required in relation to value for general cargo items than for bulk items like grain and oil. Green coffee imports, classed as general cargo and accounting for roughly half the dollar value of all imported commodities, were up substantially this year. This, however, did not off set losses in total exports and other imports. Loans made by member banks have risen sharply, but deposits have not shown the same strength. since early 1958, department store sales have not kept pace. Moderate Uptrend in Bank Lending Adverse developments in port activity apparently have not severely affected activity at banks. They are lending more money this year than they did in 1958. Based on loans made by banks that are members of the Federal Reserve System, total loans are roughly 15 percent above last year. According to mid-year reports, bank lending to individuals increased more rapidly than all other loans; real-estate loans and loans to commercial and industrial firms also showed marked gains over last year. Total bank deposits in the state have not shown as much strength as loans. At the end of September all deposits at member banks were $50 million lower than at the beginning of 1959. Both loans and deposits in Lou isiana lagged behind those in other District states. Bank debits, often thought of as the pulse of economic activity, have risen in the Pelican state but at a slower pace than for the District. Debits to demand deposits generally have followed the same upward pattern throughout the state this year. Compared with a year ago, the Shreveport and Monroe areas in the northern portion of the state and the Baton Rouge and Lafayette areas in southern Louisiana enjoyed the greatest gains. One reason areas like Lake Charles and New Orleans have had less im provement in debits this year is because they had a relatively smaller drop last year during the recession. Employment Declines Total nonfarm employment has been lower this y ea r than during 1958. vpgloN EA m yoed Vimm Ch°"«*igh'9t5M 9on*th'«s"• >9“ 0 +1 Au(0 g0109*5)9 -3 -2First E-1 Manufacturing 1439 .....................1 Food 334 M M Lumber, W ood, ft Furniture 229 17.5 Chemicals 1 Paper 8 Allied Products 164 Transportation Equipment 64 Other 47.3 ■■■■■ 611.7 -75] Nonmanufacturing Construction 607 ■■■■■■■■■■ Mining 442 ■■■■■ Trade 1757 ■■■■■ Transp. Comm. 8 Pub Utilities 8i 3 ■■ Government 1329 Other 1169 ■■ 7556 -7.7] T o ta l N o n fo rm - - - - - - - - ___ _ . i . i . i . Investments in new and expanded plants dur ing the first half of this y ea r w ere concentrated in southern Louisiana but w ere slightly lower than during the same period last year. The state’s number one problem this year has been its lagging employment. The index of nonfarm employment after adjustments for seasonal changes has declined each month except May, when high construction and Govern ment employment swelled the totals. In August there were actually 6,400 fewer nonfarm workers employed than in August last year. In fact, such employment was lower than at any time during 1957 or 1958. The largest cut back in employment occurred in transportation, communi cation, and public utilities; significant drops, however, appeared in construction, mining, and trade. Several factors contributed to the weak employment situation. Activity in international trade and construc tion has been lower; fewer workers, therefore, were needed in those fields. Then too, the trend toward further mechanization in many lines continues this year with new . 9 . m a c h in e s re p la c in g w o rk e rs. M e a n w h ile , la b o r minder that developments in the Sixth District are, after all, affected strongly by national developments and that residents of the area have been busy trying to solve, through their state and local governments, many of the same problems being dealt with in other parts of the country as well. d is p u te s h a v e p la g u e d s o m e b u s in e s s e s d u r in g th e y e a r. Industrial Growth Forges Ahead D e s p ite c e r ta in e c o n o m ic w e a k n e s s e s in L o u is ia n a , b u s i n essm en have s p e n d in g $85 in g th e e x p re sse d firs t h a lf o f th is D e p a rtm e n t fa ith in m illio n f o r n e w of y ear. C o m m e rc e th e ir and s t a t e ’s f u t u r e A c c o rd in g and by P h il ip M . W e b s t e r e x p a n d e d p la n ts d u r to In d u s try , th e 30 s t a t e ’s Debits to Individual Demand Deposit Accounts p a ris h e s s h a r e d th is g r o w th . T h e D e p a r t m e n t , f u r t h e r m o r e , is o p t i m is tic a b o u t th e (In Thousands of Dollars) r e m a in d e r o f th e y e a r ; th e y fo r e s e e in Percent Change v e s tm e n t in n e w a n d a d d itio n a l p la n ts f o r th e w h o le y e a r a t le a s t a s h ig h a s th e $ 1 9 7 m illio n in v e s te d in 1958. N . C arso n B ran an Sept. 1959 Government— Continued from Page 7 a n o th e r a rtic le Review a p p e a rin g in th is is s u e of Monthly th e on page 4. State by State C h a n g e s d is c u s s e d th e S ix th a b o v e h a v e b e e n re la te d p rim a rily D is tric t s ta te s as a g ro u p , but th e bar to ch art o n p a g e 7 s h o w s th a t th e tr e n d to w a r d a n in c re a s in g im p o rta n c e c u rre d o f g o v e rn m e n t as a in each s ta te to so u rc e v a rio u s o f in c o m e d e g re e s. In has each oc case, g o v e rn m e n t in 1 9 5 8 p r o v id e d a la rg e r p e rc e n ta g e o f to ta l p e r s o n a l in c o m e th a n it d id in 1 9 2 9 . A ll th re e m a jo r ty p e s o f g o v e rn m e n t p a y ro lls in c re a s e d in r e la tiv e but p o rtio n th e in c re a se in th e m ilita r y im p o rta n c e , w as th e m ost d ra m a tic . T h a t D is tr ic t s ta te s d iff e r o n ly in d e g re e fr o m o th e r a n d , as a g ro u p , o n ly S t a t e s is p e r h a p s in s ig n ific a n t in d e g re e fro m a n o th e r w ay . one an th e U n ite d I t is a re - Department Store Sales and Inventories* ___________________ Percent Change___________________ ____________ Sales__________ Inventories Sept. 1959 from 9 Months Sept. 30,1959 from Aug. Sept. 1959 from Aug. 31 Sept. 30 1958_________ 1959_______1958 Place__________________ 1959_______ 1958 A LA BA M A ................... —1 +4 +6+13 Birmingham . . . . +2 —1 +3 +13 +4 M o b ile ........................—8 +6 +5 Montgomery . . . . —7 +3 +5 FLORIDA........................ —11 +13 + 13+11 Daytona Beach . . . —14 +3 +9 Jacksonville . . . . —29 +28 +21 +22 +14 Miami Area . . . . —7 +11 +9 +13 +10 M i a m i ................... —7 +11 +6 Orlando ................... —6 +11 +12 St. Ptrsbg-Tampa Area . —8 +17 +19 +2 +27 GEORGIA........................ +1 +7 +5 +6 +18 A tlanta**................... + 2 +7 +5+6 Augusta ................... —4 +20 +14 Colum bus................... — 10 +3 —1+ 7 M a c o n ........................ —3 +8 +4+7 Rome** ................... +9 +15 +19 S a v a n n ah ................... —4 —3 —1 LOUISIANA................... —11 +4 +5+7 Baton Rouge . . . . —3 —6 +2 +5 +3 New Orleans . . . . —12 +8 +6 +8 +5 MISSISSIPPI . . . . —1 +6 +9 +6 + 12 Jackson........................ —3 +3 +10+ 5 Meridian** . . . . +10 +8 +7 TENNESSEE................... —1 +6 +8 +6 + io Bristol-KingsportJohnson City** . . —2 —2 +3 +12 4-8 Bristol (Tenn.&Va.)** —2 —7 +0 +13 —.9 Chattanooga . . . . +2 +4 +9 K noxville....................+ 4 +10 +9 +2 + ii DISTRICT ................... —6___________ + 7 ________ + 8 +8 +12 •Reporting stores account for over 90 percent of total District department store sales. **In order to permit publication of figures for this city, a special sample has been constructed that is not confined exclusively to department stores. Figures for nondepartment stores, however, are not used in computing the District percent changes. Aug. 1959 Year-to-date 9 Months Sept. 1959 from 1959 Sept. Aug. Sept. from 1958 1959 1958 1958 ALABAMA Anniston . . . . 36,021 41,505 41,674 Birmingham . . . 717,287 720,825 763,199 Dothan . . . . 31,174 32,052 31,585 Gadsden . . . . 33,542 32,509 35,073 Huntsville* . . . 60,402 57,999 62,956 Mobile . . . . 290,912 251,015 270,686 Montgomery . . 167,039 168,629 158,590 Selma* . . . . 24,869 29,636 23,091 Tuscaloosa* . . 51,412 47,110 51,406 Total Reporting Cities 1,472,804 1,369,594 1,389,800 Other Citiesf . . . 718,062 723,710 695,879 FLORIDA Daytona Beach* 56,730 57,797 53,968 Fort Lauderdale* . 178,304 171,544 189,983 Gainesville . . . 33,380 40,923 36,455 Jacksonville . . . 671,781 753,601 744,780 Key West* . . . 14,379 13,762 13,476 Lakeland* . . . 71,897 70,351 68,075 Miami . . . . 726,087 824,971 781,864 Greater Miami* 1,200,669 1,087,656 1,155,679 Orlando . . . . 181,844 236,285 230,415 Pensacola . . . 85,448 87,912 77,473 St. Petersburg . . 216,550 199,602 184,750 Tampa . . . . 410,152 358,570 394,404 West Palm Beach* . 112,261 115,797 114,369 Total Reporting Cities 3,392,414 3,283,544 3,015,064 Other Citiesf . . . 1,473,562 1,303,530 1,414,475 GEORGIA Albany . . . . Included in "Other Cities" Athens* . . . . 37,225 35,709 34,889 Atlanta . . . . 2,015,628 1,990,180 ]1,849,163 Augusta . . . . 105,178 108,032 99,442 Brunswick . . . 23,155 25,759 20,154 Columbus . . . 110,719 103,166 99,940 Eiberton . . . . 9,646 9,258 8,519 Gainesville* . . 45,436 48,058 51,936 Griffin* . . . . 18,473 16,876 18,266 LaGrange* . . . 18,860 19,119 17,710 Macon................... 122.047 117,597 112,926 Marietta* . . . 31,711 30,204 26,321 Newnan . . . . 20,201 19,959 15,628 Rome* . . . . 46,333 42,619 39,664 Savannah . . . 196,429 188,436 190,182 Valdosta . . . . 34,654 48,451 28,525 Total Reporting Cities 2,834,188 2,806,320 22,611,875 10 Other+Citiesf . . . 979,967 929,532 879,042 LOUISIANA Alexandria* . . . 72,410 72,780 69,030 Baton Rouge . . 256,646 263,966 246,359 +15 Lafayette* . . . 65,241 61,270 57,619 Lake Charles . . 83,750 79,371 84,359 New Orleans . . 1,334,237 1,302,882 1,238,821 Total Reporting Cities 1,812,284 1,785,257 1,691,200 Other Citiesf . . . 568,109 565,190 552,809 MISSISSIPPI Biloxi-Gulfport* . 49,491 49,498 42,636 Hattiesburg . . . 35,861 35,857 32,918 Jackson . . . . +22 283,366 278,015 274,894 Laurel* . . . . 27,475 28,451 24,465 Meridian +9 . . . . 48,538 42,914 40,845 +7 Natchez* . . . 23,611 23,053 20,604 Vicksburg . . . 21,122 18,214 19,479 Total Reporting Cities 489,464 476,002 455,841 Other +Citiesf . . . 261,005 4 253,426 241,621 TENNESSEE Bristol* . . . . 43,824 43.713 41,726 Chattanooga . . . 320,635 332,198 294,728 Johnson 40,614 41,311 38,261 + 1 6 City* . . Kingsport* . . . 80,556 82.713 71,635 Knoxville . . . 233,200 217,203 215,510 Nashville . . . 664.048 705,552 658,314 Total Reporting Cities 1,382,877 1,422,690 1,320,174 Other Citiesf . . . 562,027 4%,911 561,986 SIXTH DISTRICT 15,952,411 15,584,101 14,655,723 Reporting Cities 11,384,031 11,163,613 10,463,748 Other Citiesf . . 4,568,380 4,420,488 4,191,975 Total, 32 Cities . . 9,774,873 9,585,870 8,965,839 UNITED STATES 344 Cities . . . 215,938,000 208,131,000 195,205,000 —0 +15 +1 +6 +17 +13 +3 —3 +11 +16 +9 +16 +21 +6 —7 +4 +7 +6 +28 —0 +6 +4 —2 +13 +16 +1 +12 +12 +19 +9 +8 +14 +15 +1 +5 +? +14 +7 +11 +1 + 12 +1l +9 +4 +6 + 14 + 12 +7 +2 +4 +3 —3 +8 +4 +1 +3 +4 +4 +1 —3 — 10 +7 +4 —5 +1 — 1 +4 —5 +1 +9 +4 —28 +1 +5 —1 —3 +11 +23 +6 +16 +16 +15 + 10 +30 +12 +21 + 10 +17 + 14 +3 +13 +13 +19 +14 +15 +15 +5 +7 +9 +12 +6 +2 +15 +25 +11 +12 +13 —13 +9 ±1 +13 +13 +15 +21 +6 +8 +15 +29 +17 +3 +12 +16 +13 +29 +13 +16 +21 +9 + 11 1 +8 +5 +4 +1 +6 +13 +2 +8 +7 +3 * +I4 +0 +16 +9 +18 +14 —3 +13 +12 —1 +2 +1 —0 +2 +1? +2 +16 +3 +3 +0 —3 —2 —3 +7 —6 —3 +0 +2 +2 +3 +2 +4 +22 +18 +18 *8 + +19 +16 % +14 +18 + 12 +8 +1 +13 *1 t? +57 +I +11 +15 +15 +17 +14 +14 +15 +14 +11 * Not included in total for 32 cities that are part of the National Bank Debit Series, Estimated. f • 10 • +9 Sixth District Indexes Seasonally Adjusted (1947-49 = 100) 1958 SIXTH DISTRICT 1959 AUtT SEPT. 0C1N NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. 135 Nonfarm Employment..................... Manufacturing Em ploym ent.............. 117 Apparel................................... 168 Chemicals............................... 130 Fabricated M e t a ls ..................... 181 Food...................................... 110 Lbr., Wood Prod., Fur. & Fix. . . . 76 Paper & Allied P ro d u c ts.............. 156 Primary M e t a ls ......................... 88 Textiles................................... 85 Transportation Equipment.............. 221 Manufacturing Payrolls .................. 200 Cotton Consumption**..................... 85 Electric Power Production**.............. 313 Petrol. Prod, in Coastal Louisiana & M ississipp i**.............. 176 Construction C o n tra c ts*.................. 397 Residential............................... 413 A llO th e r............................... 384 Farm Cash Receipts......................... 136 Crops...................................... 118 Livestock............................... 182 Dept. Store Sales*/** .................. 185 A tlanta................................... 183 192 Baton R o u g e ............................ Birm ingham ............................ 148 Chattanooga............................ 158 Jackson................................... 124 Jacksonville............................ 136 K n oxville............................... 156 M a c o n ................................... 183 M ia m i................................... 285 New O rle a n s............................ 147 Tampa-St. Petersburg.................. 221 Dept. Store Stocks*......................... 192 Furniture Store S a l e s * / * * .............. 151 Member Bank D e p o s its * .................. 176 281 Member Bank L o a n s * ..................... Bank D ebits*................................ 230 Turnover of Demand Deposits* . . . . 147 In Leading C itie s.........................165 »,°.l[Hi£ .Leadin9 C it ie s .................. 113 ALABAMA Nonfarm Em ploym ent..................118 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 104 Manufacturing Payrolls .............. 177 144 Furniture Store S a l e s .................. Member Bank D ep osits.................. 154 Member Bank Lo an s..................... 233 Farm Cash Receipts.............. ! . 130 136 117 167 127 182 112 79 159 89 136 118 169 127 179 113 80 159 94 137 119 170 128 178 136 118 172 129 179 137 119 173 132 182 113 79 160 91 86 213 204 91 351 137 120 174 132 178 114 80 161 92 87 205 206 92 346 138 121 174 133 179 115 78 161 95 138 139 139 123 182 135 182 114 79 163 103 139 123 185 135 181 112 80 165 139 139 185 136 175r 185 132 177 113 81 165 74 192 336 364 314 141 128 162 174 164 195 136 162 124 143 161 161 242 145 207 200 161 181 298 265 144 153 114 193 445 382 496 134 113 164 168 161 180 127 154 116 141 154 155 248 139 203 198 154 178 303 271r 153 162 189 463 394 520 142 105 185 167 155 171 127 148 104 136 147 143 251 130 198 453 398 499 150 127 183 175 169 190 135 148 111 130 151 170 263 142 230 195 141 179 305 273r 149 160 118 201 120 106 185 154 154 254 123 233r 121 107 189 125 154 250 147 233r FLORIDA * ............................ 208 Nonfarm Em ploym ent.................. 186 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 185 Manufacturing Payrolls .............. 313 Furniture Store S a l e s .................. 172r Member Bank D ep osits.................. 233 Member Bank Lo an s..................... 456 Farm Cash Receipts..................... 206 GEORGIA*^1* * ............................ 342 Nonfarm Em ploym ent.................. 129 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 114 Manufacturing Payrolls .............. 195 u ^ ,i Uri St?re S * * * ..................I 57 Member Bank D eposits.................. 154 Member Bank Loans . . . . 212 £ U I! S ? Receipts • • • • • • • 157 lo & n a ............................ 212 Nonfarm Em ploym ent.................. 127 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 95 "anufacturing Payrolls .............. 168 M^kH.repSt? t Sales* .................. I 69 u j ? g31* D e p o s it s * .............. 157 “a"1' L o a n s * .................. 273 a a s .* * ! * ................. i09 M I s I i s s S ............................ 201 Em ploym ent.................. 127 H r 5 un.n9 Emptoymtttt . . . . 129 .............. 246 c!"9 Payro,ls u«mk ^ S a le s * .................. 123 M«Uk d3"!! DeP°sits* .............. 192 F a W ? ua2,k Loans* .................. 352 B a f t * * * ................... 100 TENNESSEE5 ............................ 201 .................. I I 9 Employment . . . . 114 .............. I 93 FuiSI Ji"9 Payrolls £ w ep ! l SalB * .................. I 09 .............. 159 S * L o a n s * .................. 250 Bank ^?c e ip ts..................... 112 nank Debits* ............................. 202 86 86 112 80 159 90 86 220 200 89 311 203 199 87 314 213 187 393 421 371 104 82 185 168r 158 179 133 148r 107 129 151 147 251r 190 364 433 308 112 84 217 165 154 180 131 154 111 135 146 153 258 144 209 190 333 375 298 123 99 216 170 161 214 129 163 126 136 155 158 230 144 214 207 152 180 291 243 139 146 140 206r 198 145 202 145 204 87 316 175 282 257 146 161 116 175 285 250 142 105 102 118 104 175 137r 152 234 120 104 182 136 153 239 120 97 231 106 221 188 187 320 171 233 188 187 326 153 235 463 457 212 384 130 116 149 162 388 219 158 130 115 190 151 154 223 104 236 224 128 % 167 l 85r 155 265 128 % 165 235 215 130 130 247 101 194 359 130 132 247 80 197 359 191 145r 155 72 lbb 152 268 99 59 99 221 120 211 120 115 1% 107r 158 247 77 217 116 187 103 159 251 114 220 112 79 160 92 86 217 205 84 330 201 309 367 262 130 92 211 176 162 204 138 156 124 142 163 158 256 148 212 205 148 179 292 273 150 161 121 121 88 200 209 93 341 221 121 176 135 180 115 79 161 98 87 207 214 94 340 122 179 135 181 113 80 163 100 88 88 210 215 92 346 207 219 89 357 206 397 429 370 151 131 181 182 161 187 135 164 200r 411 433 393 151 121 112 192 186 174 192 127 161 114 139 148 168 277 151 245 120 112 79 163 73r 102 88 89 213 224 110 359 195r 416r 425 410 151 117 190 190 178 179 136 168 124 138 164 167 301 155 244 120 88 215 r 216 94 359 205 213 93 n.a. 222 165 177 312 156 263 217r 159 183 330 260r 154 174 115 221 214 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 180p 169 168p 131 155 ll lp 166 165 158 277 151 241p 221p 147p 183 331 283 150 164 118 117 99 167 139 160 270 n.a. 248 440 444 436 124 95 182 1% 188 190 145 164 131 135 153 166 269 144 251 200 153 182 316 262r 158 174 126 148 183 321 280r 152 174 117 158 181 329 285r 162 179 124 107 193 145 156 254 148 238r 121 107 190 135 157 259 132 23lr 121 106 195 134 160 266 162 253r 122 109 198 139 160 275 164 254r 117 lOOr 173 143 160 269 127 226r 195 195 351 176 241 526 227 400r 197 198 351 175 243 534 236 437r 199 199 200 364 178 238 544 239 441 r 371 211r 246 548 408r 370 177 247 550 n.a. 450 132 119 148 160 246 158 235 132 119 215 139 159 250 140 253r 219 159r 157 256 178 261r 133 119 216r 163r 162 260 131 238r 208 145 160 260 n.a. 258 157 178 311 274r 145 164 112 120 202 212 104 186 136 158 246 120 105 179 131 155 242 216 232 121 105 182 147 155 248 126 233 188 186 322 170 241 477 147 357 187 186 316 167 241 477 162 403 188 188 318 176 242 485 281 372r 189 190 326 184 238 492 232 382r 191 193 319 163 235 500 182 391r 193 195 343 183 233 511 230 389r 130 116 130 116 200 153 158 227 153 243 131 115 195 149 159 230 143 236 131 116 197 143 157 237 142 238 131 117 204 134 157 235 169 243r 132 118 206 151 157 244 150 248r 129 97 169 129 96 173 171 163 284 103 129 95 173 174 160 287 112 216 128 % 175 203 165 293 130 227 128 96 178 177 160 293 123 229r 128 % 179 191 165 295 159 217r 128 % 175 177 165 295 146 240r 176 193 160 302 142 233r 126 95 176r 168r 160 299 86 223r 127 95 178 181 p 160 304 n.a. 248 131 131 246 106 190 367 85 131 131 251 97 198 378 146 225r 130 132 250 114 195 383 129 225r 132 134 247 120 191 391 139 208r 131 133 247 132 195 398 163 238r 131 134 252 115 197 403 145 233r 131 134 253r 129 194 400 116 224r 133 135 250 95 195 411 n.a. 236 122 119 205 109 159 268 119 229r 123 119 208 114 162 272 109 229r 122 123 122 121 211 122 122 120 210 101 201 141 158 226 124 218 128 98 172 197 156 277 114 199 111 1% 159 274 109 230 210 131 133 248 107 198 363 129 214 130 132 245 133 195 369 233 132 131 247 114 197 361 93 216r 120 120 120 116 187 112 161 251 114 213 122 116 1% 113 162 256 100 235 117 202 111 165 262 98 230 210 121 118 204 114 160 267 107 242r 211 119 206 116 166 276 95 225r 120 206 116 164 283 113 235r 202 202 200 134 120 127 % 119 214r 122 165 287 108 221r 105 165 287 87 239r 202 134 120 109 166 288 n.a. 229 p Preliminary. r Revised. **n^ii^ixth District area only. Other totals for entire six states. n a. Not Available. torty average basis. and mfg. emp. and payrolls, state depts. of labor; cotton consumption, U. S. Bureau Census; construction contracts, F. W. Dodge Corp.; petrol, prod., U. S. Bureau "»*nes; elec. power prod., Fed. Power Comm. Other indexes based on data collected by this Bank. All indexes calculated by this Bank. • 11 * S I X T H D I S T R I C T B U S I N E S S H I G H L I G H T S 1947-49*100 T h e d i s t r i c t ’s e c o n o m y m arked tim e as gains in som e economic sectors were offset by declines in others. F arm a ctivity was at a high level w ith the fall harvest at a peak. N o n fa rm employment show ed little change in Septem ber, bu t spreading layoffs because of the steel strike have since clouded the picture. C onsum er spending has slackened som ew hat. L oans at m em ber b a n ks increased slightly from the level o f the previous m onths. M eanw hile, borrow ings from the Federal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta m o ved up sharply. Member Bonk ^ Nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted, showed only a minor change in September, remaining at about the level of the preceding four months. Manufacturing employment was unchanged, but nonmanufacturing rose fractionally. In mid-September, Alabama was still the only state in which em ployment was significantly reduced by the steel strike, but effects of the strike have reportedly become more widespread since then. Manufacturing payroljs declined slightly as average weekly earnings were reduced by a shortening of the number of hours worked. The rate off insured unemploy ment declined after allowance for seasonal changes. The seasonally adjusted three-month average of construction contract awards, including September figures, continued to rise, but was still below the volume in the first part of the year. Cotton textile activity, as measured by cotton consumption, dropped slightly further. Crude oil production in Coastal Louisiana and Mississippi was at a very high level in September. It fell below the August amount, however, which was inflated as a result of efforts to regain earlier losses of allowable production. Activity on District farms quickened in September as the peak harvest season approached. Farm marketings, spurred by crop sales, rose, but prices declined further. Employment increased more than seasonally with exceptionally large gains occurring in Alabama and Mississippi; wages paid farm workers, however, declined somewhat but remained near last year’s level. Demand deposits, adjusted for seasonal variations, rose at banks in predomi nantly agricultural areas in all states except Mississippi and Tennessee. Departm ent store sales rose steadily during the first three weeks of October. During September, seasonally adjusted sales for the District and for almost every major metropolitan area had declined sharply. Department store stocks increased more than seasonally in September, which caused larger than normal stocks to sales ratio in that month. Furniture store s ef. creased more than seasonally in every state except Louisiana. Sales at appliance stores also declined. Total retail sales increased less than they normally do in August, and autom otive sales were virtually unchanged. International trade through District ports slackened in August, as both exports and imports declined more than they usually do in that month. Spending of consumers, businesses, and government, as indicated by seasonally adjusted bank debits, rebounded sharply in September to a level just under July s record, with increases occurring in every state. Saving by consumers in each state, as indicated by time deposits, sav ings and loan shares outstanding, and ordinary life insurance sales, was virtually unchanged in September. Consumer instalment credit outstanding rose at all financial institutions and at department stores in September. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta resumed their upward trend after leveling off in September. Member bank loans, seasonally adjusted, increased little during September with only Mississippi showing a sizable rise. Similarly, both seasonally adjusted total deposits and demand deposits continued to display the level pattern observed generally throughout c C^ e?ty e a r- ^ e r e were no marked offsetting changes among various Sixth District states. Holdings off U.S. Government securities declined.
@FedFRASER