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MONTHLY REVIEW F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K IN THIS ISSUE: • The R ec e n t T ex tile R e c e ssio n and R ecovery • 1968 Crop A c r e a g e s Up? • M ississip p i: Industrialization B rings In terd ep en d en ce • D istrict B u sin e ss C onditions O F MAY 1968 A T L A N T A T R h e R e c e s s i o e c e n t n d a T e x tile m a n u fa ctu rers a re sp o r tin g b rig h ter c o s tu m e s th is sp rin g , c o lo r e d b y im p r o v e d p r o d u c tio n , sa le s, a n d p rices. A n d th e p ic tu r e lo o k s e v e n b righ ter, co m p a red w ith th a t o f la s t y e a r, w h en th e in d u s tr y w a s ju s t p u llin g o u t o f a r e c e ssio n w h ich b eg a n in m id -1966. W h a t h a s c a u se d th e im p r o v e m e n t in te x t ile a c tiv ity ? A n d h o w h a v e r e c e n t te x t ile d e v e lo p m e n ts a ffe c te d th e in d u s tr y in th e D is tr ic t? A n e x a m in a tio n o f th e la s t te x t ile r e c e ss io n sh o u ld r e v e a l th e r ea so n s for th e u p tu rn . T h e te x t ile in d u s tr y is n o stra n g er to sw in g s in it s a c tiv ity . In fa ct, c y c lic a l flu c tu a tio n s in te x tile s a re m o re p e r siste n t a n d larger, r e la tiv e to c h a n g e s in fin al d e m a n d for th e in d u s tr y ’s p ro d u cts, th a n for o th er in d u str ie s. In la r g e p art, th e s e flu c tu a tio n s a re th e r e su lt o f th e e x tr e m e ly p r ic e -c o m p e titiv e n a tu r e o f th e in d u s tr y a n d th e k e y ro le p la y e d b y p u r c h a ser s’ in v e n to r ie s in d e te r m in in g p ro d u cers’ s a le s a n d p ro d u c tio n . A m ore s ta b le e c o n o m y a n d c o n so lid a tio n a n d v e r tic a l in te g r a tio n w ith in th e in d u s tr y h a v e r e d u c e d th e freq u en cy a n d e x te n t o f th e te x t ile c y c le . Y e t, th e c y c le rem a in s. R e c e s s io n D u r in g 1 966 th e in d u s tr y e x p e r ie n c e d red u c e d sa le s to it s fou r m ajor m a r k e ts— a p p a r e l, ca rp ets, in d u str ia l, a n d m ilita r y . In F e b r u a ry r e ta il sa le s of a p p a rel le v e le d off, r e su ltin g in a sh a rp in c r e a se in a p p a rel in v e n to r ie s. W h ile th e d e c lin e s in a p p a r e l s a le s w ere te m p o ra ry , th e e ffe c ts o n te x tile b u y in g m u ltip lie d th ro u g h th e d istr ib u tio n c h a in , from re ta ile r to w h o le sa le r to a p p a rel m a n u fa ctu rer to te x t ile m a n u fa ctu rer. Monthly Review, Vol. LIII, No. 5. Free subscription and additional copies available upon request to the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of At lanta, Atlanta, Georgia 30303. 58 n T e x t i l e R e c o v e r y D u r in g th e su m m er a n d fa ll, h o u sin g sta r ts co n tr a c te d sh a r p ly a n d r e d u c e d th e d e m a n d for ca rp ets. D u r in g O cto b er 1 9 6 6 th e r a te o f h o u sin g sta r ts p lu n g e d to th e lo w e s t le v e l sin c e 1946. B e tw e e n fisca l 1 966 ( J u ly 19 6 5 -J u n e 1 9 6 6 ) a n d fisca l 1967, m ilita r y p r o c u r e m e n t o f w o v e n y a r d g o o d s fe ll from $ 4 0 0 to $ 2 7 3 m illio n . T h is c o n tr a c tio n o cc u r re d b e c a u se o f th e r ec o v e r y o f in v e n to r ie s fro m th e ir e a r lie r d e p le te d le v e ls a n d sp e n d in g c o n str a in ts b r o u g h t o n b y th e F e d e r a l d eficit. L a ter, in d u s tr ia l p r o d u c tio n le v e le d o u t a n d th e n d e c lin e d d u r in g th e first h a lf o f 1967. L o w er in d u s tr ia l o u tp u t c u r ta ile d th e in d u s tr ia l d em a n d fo r fa b rics. In 1 9 6 6 a n d 1 9 6 7 w e a k a u to m o b ile s a le s reta r d e d p u r c h a se s o f t e x t ile p ro d u c ts for car u p h o ls te r y a n d tir e cord. R e a c tin g to fa llin g sa le s, te x t ile m a n u fa c tu r e r s b eg a n to c u t b a ck p r o d u c tio n in J u ly 1 9 6 6 a n d e m p lo y m e n t th e fo llo w in g S e p te m b e r . T h e d e c lin e in e m p lo y m e n t w a s m o d er a te , h o w e v e r , b e c a u se m a n u fa ctu r er s fe a r e d th a t la id -o ff w ork ers w o u ld n o t b e a v a ila b le fo r re h ir in g o n c e th e re c e s s io n e n d e d . P r o d u c tio n c u tb a c k s d id n o t p re v e n t th e d e c r e a se in t e x t ile p r o d u c t p r ic e s b e g in n in g in A u g u st. D e c lin in g p r ic e s a lw a y s th r e a te n th e t e x t ile in d u s tr y , b e c a u s e m a n y p u r ch a sers r e d u ce th e ir b u y in g w h e n p r ic e s w e a k e n in h o p e s o f fu rth er p r ice cu ts. P ro fits, a s u su a l, fe lt th e la r g e s t im p a c t from th e fa llin g le v e l o f b u sin e ss. C o rp o ra te p rofits a fte r ta x e s for t e x t ile firm s w ere c u t in h a lf from fo u rth q u a rter 1 965 to first q u a rter 1967. T h e r e d u c e d p ro fits r e su lte d n o t o n ly fro m d e c lin in g d e m a n d b u t a ls o in c r e a s e d c o sts. D u r in g th is p e r io d a v e r a g e h o u r ly t e x t ile e a m in g s w e n t u p 5 p ercen t. T e x t ile p la n t o w n er s q u ic k ly a lte r e d th e ir in v e stm e n t p la n s, a s th e in d u s tr y ’s m a r k e ts w e a k e n ed . P la n t a n d e q u ip m e n t sp e n d in g for te x tile s sh ra n k b y 3 6 p e r c e n t b e tw e e n se c o n d q u arter 1 966 a n d first q u a rter 1968. M O N T H L Y R E V IE W The R e ce n t D e c lin e an d R ecovery in T e x tile A c tiv ity National Series Peak Month Corporate Profits After Taxes* Average Workweek Production Capital Spending* Wholesale Prices Employment Inventories Shipments Bank Loans*** Cotton Consumption 12-65 3-66 6-66 6-66 7-66 8-66 8-66 8-66 1-67 10-66 Percent Percent Decline Advance from Trough PeakMonth Trough Trough 3-67 3-67 6-67 ** 47.8 5.2 5.4 ** 62.9 2.7 8.9 ** 7-67 7-67 12-66 2-67 9-67 7-67 3.6 1.8 0.5 9.3 8.2 12.0 5.0 3.5 8.2 13.2 5.9 4.9 1.9 District Series Employment 1-67 7-67 1.0 Bank Loans*** 9-66 2-67 10.1 9.9 Cotton Consumption 1-66 11-67 12.9 12.2 ♦Quarterly series with turning points denoted by last month of the quarter. **Series has not yet turned upward. ***Also includes loans to apparel and leather manufacturers. T h e e ffe c t o f d ecr e a sin g te x t ile a c tiv ity o n b a n k le n d in g o ccu rred w ith a la g b e c a u se te x tile lo a n s g e n e r a lly are m a d e to fin a n ce a c c o u n ts r e c e iv a b le a n d in v e n to r ie s, b o th o f w h ic h u su a lly c o n tra ct a fter d e c lin e s in sa le s a n d p ro d u ctio n . N a tio n a lly , th e drop w a s 8 p e r c e n t for b a n k lo a n s to te x tile , a p p a rel, a n d le a th e r firm s b e tw e e n J a n u a ry a n d S e p te m b e r 1967. A c c o r d in g to F e d e r a l T r a d e C o m m issio n — S e c u r itie s a n d E x c h a n g e C o m m issio n d a ta , te x tile lo a n s m a d e b y b a n k s in c r e a se d $ 1 9 0 m illio n from y e a r -a g o S e p tem b er, w h ile a p p a rel lo a n s fe ll $ 1 5 0 m illio n . A p p a r e n tly , th e d ec r e a se in te x t ile lo a n d em a n d , r e su ltin g from sm a ller a c c o u n ts rec e iv a b le , w a s o ffse t b y th e lo a n d em a n d g en era ted b y h ig h e r in v e n to r y le v e ls. a b le, d e s p ite se r io u s p ro b le m s su c h a s th e h ig h v o lu m e o f im p o r ts, r a p id ly in c r e a s in g la b o r co sts, a n d a sh o r ta g e o f lo n g s ta p le c o tto n . A fte r a d is a p p o in tin g fo u rth q u arter, r e ta il a p p a re l sa le s reb o u n d e d sh a r p ly in e a r ly 1968. M o reo v er, th e o u tlo o k for c o n tin u e d grow th in a p p a r e l s a le s is fa v o ra b le b e c a u se o f r isin g p e r so n a l in c o m e a n d th e m a rk ed in c r e a se in th e p o p u la tio n o f th e “c lo th e s c o n sc io u s” a g e grou p s. H o u s in g sta r ts d u r in g first q u a rter 1 9 6 8 w ere a t a 1.5 m illio n a n n u a l rate, u p from o n ly 9 0 0 ,0 0 0 in fo u rth q u ar te r 1966. T h e g ro w in g v o lu m e o f h o u sin g a c tiv ity a n d th e c o n tin u in g e x p a n sio n o f c a r p ets in to o th e r flo o rin g m a r k e ts w ill su p p o r t ex p a n d e d ca r p e t p r o d u ctio n . M a n y h o m e fu r n ish in g s w ith te x tile m a te r ia ls w ill sh a r e in h ig h e r sa le s b ro u g h t b y im p r o v e d h o u sin g a c tiv ity . A u to m o b ile s a le s in e a r ly 196 8 r o se c o n sid e r a b ly a b o v e th e co m p a r a b le 1 967 p erio d , a n d h ig h e r s a le s for th e y e a r a re p r e d ic te d b y in d u str y officials, d e s p ite a fa ll in sa le s d u rin g A p ril. E x p a n d in g in d u s tr ia l a c tiv ity w ill req u ire a h ig h er v o lu m e o f te x tile p ro d u cts. T h e m ilita r y ste p p e d u p p ro c u r e m e n t o f w o v e n y a m g o o d s d u rin g th e la s t h a lf o f th is fisc a l y ea r. T h u s, a ll fou r o f th e m a jo r te x tile m a r k e ts h a v e in c r ea se d th e ir p u rch a ses. If th e D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m erce p ro je c tio n s for 1968 te x tile s h ip m e n ts a re a ccu r a te , te x tile m a n u fa c tu re r s w ill e x p e r ie n c e a n 1 1 -p er c e n t in c r e a se from th e d e p r e sse d 196 7 le v e ls. D istr ic t D e v e lo p m e n t s M o s t o f th e D is t r ic t te x t ile a c tiv ity is c o n c e n tr a ted in G eo rg ia , w ith 5 0 p e r c e n t o f th e r e g io n ’s te x tile job s; A la b a m a , w ith 2 0 p ercen t; a n d T e n - The District’s textile industries shared in national declines. R e c o v e r y a n d O u tlo o k T h e in c r e a s e in te x tile s h ip m e n ts in M a r c h 1 967 w a s o n e o f th e in d u s tr y ’s first sig n s o f reco v ery . M a n u fa c tu r e r s le n g th e n e d th e w o rk w eek th e fo l lo w in g m o n th , b u t n o t u n til J u ly d id p r o d u c tio n tu r n arou n d . H o w ev er, th e r e c o v e ry p r o c e e d e d r a p id ly , a n d b y O ctob er o u tp u t r e a ch ed a n e w h ig h . A t y e a r -e n d w h o le sa le p r ic e s o f te x tile p r o d u c ts w ere p a r tic u la r ly b u o y a n t b e c a u se o f h ig h e r d em a n d , in c r e a sin g la b or c o sts, a n d th e s m a ll c o tto n crop. B y e a r ly 196 8 m o s t m e a su r e s o f t e x t ile a c tiv ity su r p a sse d th e h ig h m a rk s o f th e p r e v io u s ex p a n sio n . T h e o u tlo o k for th e te x t ile in d u s tr y is fa v o r Digitized M A Y 1for 9 6 8FRASER 59 Areas of Major District Textile Activity n e ss e e , w ith a b o u t 15 p ercen t. W ith in th e s e s ta te s th e te x tile area is fa ir ly c o n tig u o u s a n d circ u m scrib ed b y C h a tta n o o g a , G a d sd e n , M o n t go m ery , C o lu m b u s, A u g u sta , a n d K n o x v ille . O f cou rse, th e t e x t ile a rea e x te n d s n o rth w a rd in to th e C a ro lin a s. T h e te x t ile r e c e ssio n for th e D is t r ic t te x t ile sta te s w a s sim ila r to th a t o f th e n a tio n , b u t d if fered in d e ta il. T h e D is t r ic t’s t e x t ile e m p lo y m e n t h e ld u p lo n g er th a n th e n a tio n ’s a n d d e c lin e d o n ly o n e p e r c e n t d u r in g a fiv e -m o n th p erio d . C o tto n co n su m p tio n in th e D is t r ic t r eg iste re d a b o u t th e sa m e d e c r e a se a s in th e n a tio n , b u t it s d u ra tio n w a s lo n g er. O n a n a n n u a l b a sis, 196 7 te x t ile jo b s a d v a n c e d 1.9 p e r c e n t o v er th e 19 6 6 le v e l, d e s p ite th e c o n tr a ctio n in a c tiv ity . W h ile a v e r a g e h o u r ly e a r n in g s in crea sed , th e a v e r a g e w o rk w eek fe ll, so te x t ile p a y r o lls w ere lit t le c h a n g e d from th e p re v io u s y ea r. H o w e v e r , th e v o lu m e o f la r g e c o m m e rcia l b a n k lo a n s to te x tile , a p p a r e l, a n d le a th er firm s in th e D is t r ic t reco rd ed a la rg er ra te o f d e c lin e th a n d id th o s e th r o u g h o u t th e co u n tr y . Digitized60 for FRASER T h e D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e ’s p r o je c tio n s o f 1968 te x t ile sh ip m e n ts in d ic a te d th e la r g e s t g a in s w o u ld b e in ca rp ets, w h o se p r o d u c tio n is c e n te r e d in n o rth e rn G eo rg ia . H o w e v e r , th e D is t r ic t ’s p ro d u cers o f c o tto n b ro a d w o v e n g o o d s m a y se e lit t le in c r e a s e in th e ir s a le s th is y e a r , b e c a u se o f th e sm a ll c o tto n crop la s t y e a r (a n d c o n se q u e n t h ig h e r p r ic e s ) a n d th e c o n tin u in g s h ift from c o t to n to m a n m a d e fibers. D is t r ic t t e x t ile m a n u fa c tu r e r s e x p r e ss e d th eir c o n fid e n ce in th e in d u s tr y la s t y e a r b y m a k in g la rg er c o m m itm e n ts for c a p ita l in v e s tm e n ts. T h e d o lla r v o lu m e o f n e w a n d e x p a n d e d p la n t a n n o u n c e m e n ts in 196 7 w a s a b o u t d o u b le th e 1966 le v e l. In th e fo u rth q u a rter o f la s t y e a r te n p la n ts a n n o u n c e d p la n n e d in v e s tm e n ts o f o v e r $1 m il lio n ea ch . T h e r e a liz a tio n o f th e s e p la n s w ill b rin g h ig h e r t e x t ile c a p ita l sp e n d in g . B a n k e r s c a n e x p e c t fu rth er d e m a n d s in b o r ro w ed fu n d s, b o th to fin a n c e te x t ile firm s’ in cre a sed w o r k in g c a p ita l n e e d s a n d h ig h e r c a p ita l sp en d in g . R ic h a r d L ong M O N T H L Y R E V IE W 1 9 6 8 C r o p A A c r e a g e s o f m ajor crop s in th e D is t r ic t w ill e x c e e d la s t y e a r ’s p la n tin g s b y 1 p e r ce n t if farm ers ca rry o u t th eir in te n tio n s sta te d in a r e c e n t U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f A g ric u ltu r e rep ort. A n e x p e c te d 18- to 2 0 -p ercen t in c r e a se in c o tto n a n d rice a crea g es, p lu s sm a ller g a in s for so y b e a n s a n d p e a n u ts, sh o u ld m ore th a n co u n ter o th e r crop lo sse s. S in c e th e s e e s tim a te s w ere m a d e e a r ly in th e g ro w in g sea so n , a c tu a l p la n tin g s m a y b e a lter e d b y la ter d e c is io n s c o n cern in g G o v e rn m en t p ro gram s, w ea th er effects, lab o r p ro sp e c ts, a n d o th er e c o n o m ic factors. A t th e n a tio n a l le v e l a c r e a g e s o f 17 m ajor cro p s are e x p e c te d to b e 2 p e rcen t, or a b o u t 6 m illio n acres, le s s th a n in 1967. S h a rp r e d u c tio n s in fe e d grain p la n tin g s w ill o ffse t m o re m o d e s t g a in s in co tto n , so y b e a n s, so m e sm a ll grain s, a n d o th er crops. Cotton P e r h a p s th e m o s t sig n ific a n t c h a n g e in th e so u th ern farm sc e n e is th e e x p e c te d 1 8 -p ercen t, or 4 4 7 ,0 0 0 -a cre, g a in in c o tto n p la n tin g s. T h is r e p resen ts a reversal in th e d o w n tre n d o f c o tto n a c r e a g e s th a t b eg a n in 1962 a n d c u lm in a te d in v e r y la rg e cu tb a ck s in 1966 a n d 1967. In th e la s t tw o y e a r s a la rg e n u m b er o f farm ers p a r tic ip a te d in th e a c rea g e d iv e r sio n p r o v isio n s o f th e 1965 F o o d a n d A g ricu ltu ra l A ct. T h e y w ere req u ired to d iv e r t a m in im u m o f 12.5 p e r c en t o f th e ir a l lo tm e n t a n d co u ld d iv ert u p to 35 p e rcen t. T h is d iv e r sio n , co m b in ed w ith p o o r g ro w in g se a so n s, c a u se d c o tto n p ro d u ctio n to d rop w e ll b e lo w to ta l c o n su m p tio n , r e su ltin g in a “ru n -off” o f c o tto n su r p lu ses. T h is y ea r, w ith ca rry o v er sto c k s n ea r or b e lo w d esir e d le v e ls, th e G o v e r n m e n t c o tto n M A Y 1 for 9 6 8 FRASER Digitized c r e a g e s U p ? p rogram h a s b e e n m o d ified to e n c o u ra g e h ig h e r p ro d u ctio n . F o r th e 1968 gro w in g se a so n , fa rm ers m u s t d i v ert o n ly 5 p e r c e n t o f th e ir b a sic a llo tm e n t b u t m a y ta k e a fu ll 35 p e rc e n t o u t o f p r o d u ctio n . B u t p a y m e n t for v o lu n ta r y d iv e r sio n w ill b e o n ly 6 c e n ts p er p o u n d tim e s th e n o rm a l y ie ld o f th e d iv er ted a crea g e s, co m p a red w ith 1 0 .7 8 c e n ts p er p o u n d in 1967. M a n y farm ers w ill n o w fin d it m ore p ro fita b le to e x p a n d p la n tin g s a n d k e e p d i v e r te d a c r ea g e s n ea r m in im u m le v e ls. F u rth er in d u c e m e n ts to farm ers a re h ig h e r m a rk et p ric es, ra n g in g a b o v e p r ic e su p p o r t lo a n p a y m e n ts in re c e n t m o n th s, a n d a m o d ific a tio n o f r u le s p e r ta in in g to th e m e a su r e m e n t o f a c r ea g e a llo tm e n ts p la n te d in v a rio u s sk ip -ro w p a ttern s. W ith in th e D is tr ic t, th e d e g re e to w h ic h farm ers are r e sp o n d in g to th e lib e r a liz e d c o tto n p la n t in g r e g u la tio n s v a ries. F a rm ers in M is s is s ip p i w ill p la n t 1.2 m illio n acres, u p 2 6 p e r c e n t from a y e a r ea rlier. G a in s in L o u isia n a a n d T e n n e s s e e m a y rea ch 22 a n d 18 p ercen t, r e sp e c tiv e ly . C o tto n p la n tin g s w ill a d v a n c e m u ch le s s r a p id ly in A la b a m a a n d G eorgia. M a n y p ro d u cers in th e s e s ta te s a re le s s re sp o n siv e to th e p rogram m o d ifi c a tio n s b e c a u se th e y e x p e r ie n c e d n ea r d isa stro u s crop fa ilu r es from a d v e r se w ea th er a n d in s e c t in fe sta tio n s la s t y ea r. In a d d itio n , th e lo w er q u a l it y o f co tto n p r o d u ced in so m e a r ea s is su b je c t to h e a v y p r ic e d isc o u n ts, so it m a y b e m o re p rofit a b le to m a in ta in h ig h e r d iv e r sio n rates. Soybeans P r o d u cers o f so y b e a n s in D is t r ic t sta te s p la n to p la n t a p p r o x im a te ly 3 p er c e n t m o re b ea n s 61 in 1968 th a n in 1967. T h is ra te o f in c r e a s e is e q u a l to th e U . S . a d v a n c e a n d w o u ld m a rk th e se v e n th c o n se c u tiv e a n n u a l g a in in th e S o u th e a st. B y 1967, s o y b e a n s o c c u p ie d m o re a c r e a g e o n D is t r ic t farm s th a n a n y o th e r crop , a n d th e tr en d is e x p e c te d to co n tin u e . T h e p r o je c te d 3 -p e r c e n t g a in in so y b e a n p la n t in g rep r e se n ts th e s m a lle s t r a te o f in c r e a se sin c e th e so u th e r n “ so y b e a n r u sh ” b e g a n in 1963. T h is d e c lin e in th e e x p e c te d grow th ra te w a s c a u se d in p a rt b y grea ter c o m p e titio n for tilla b le fa rm la n d from c o tto n a n d rice, p r ic e d e c lin e s in 1967, a p o te n tia l o n e b illio n b u sh e l crop in 1968, a n d th e p r o sp e c t for c o n tin u e d d o w n w a rd p r ic e p r e ssu res, c a u se d b y la rg e ca rry o v er sto c k s. M is s is s ip p i farm ers, w h o p la n t o v er o n e -th ir d o f th e D is t r ic t ’s b e a n a c r e a g e s, in d ic a te th e y w ill red u ce p la n tin g s b y 4 p e r c en t. S im ila r ly , G eo rg ia p ro d u cers a re e x p e c te d to c u t a c r e a g es b y th e sa m e a m o u n t, w h ile F lo r id a fa rm ers w ill e x p a n d a cr e a g e s b y on e-fo u rth . S o y b e a n a c re a g e s w ill a d v a n c e a p p r o x im a te ly 15 p e r c e n t in A la b a m a , a n d 7 p e r c e n t in b o th L o u isia n a a n d T e n n e sse e . S in c e th e s e d a ta are b a se d o n fa rm ers’ M a r c h 1 p la n tin g in te n tio n s , th e p o s s ib ility o f c h a n g e is great. A d v e r se w ea th er a n d in s e c t d a m a g e c o u ld a lter a cr e a g e s o f o th e r crop s. H o w e v e r , th e s e a c re a g e s m a y b e re p la n te d to so y b e a n s, sin c e th is crop c a n b e p la n te d la te r in th e y ea r. R ic e R ic e a cr e a g e s in L o u isia n a a n d M is s is s ip p i are e x p e c te d to a d v a n c e 1 2 4 ,0 0 0 a cres, or 2 0 p e r cen t. T h is g a in reflects e n tir e ly a 2 0 -p e r c e n t in c re a se in r ic e a crea g e a llo tm e n ts, a 5 -c e n t p er cw t. rise in th e p rice su p p o r t lo a n rate, a n d m a r k e t p r ic e s w e ll a b o v e su p p o rt le v e ls. T h e s e v e r y b u llis h c o n d itio n s in th e d o m e s tic rice m a rk et are c a u se d b y m o d e s t a d v a n c e s in U . S . co n su m p tio n a n d v e r y stro n g e x p o rt d e- Soybeans, the District’s leading agricultural crop, continues its uptrend, while cotton reverses a downtrend. Millions of Acres 1960 1962 Digitized62 for FRASER 1964 1966 1968 An increase of over 250,000 acres of major District crop? is led by soybeans, cotton, and rice. M illions o f A c re s m a n d s. In 1966, th e d o m e s tic m a r k e t a c c o u n te d for o n ly o n e -th ir d o f th e to ta l U .S . r ic e d is a p p ea ra n ce. T h e b a la n c e w a s ex p o rted , w ith c o m m e r c ia l s a le s fo r d o lla r s e q u a lin g n e a r ly 6 0 p e r c e n t o f a ll r ic e e x p o r ts in th e 1 2 -m o n th p er io d e n d in g J u ly 31, 1 967. F o o d a id s h ip m e n ts , p r i m a r ily to S o u th V ie tn a m a n d In d ia , r e p r e se n t th e b a la n c e o f th e s h ip m e n ts ab road . P e a n u t s A c r e a g e s o f p e a n u ts in th e D is t r ic t w ill re m a in v ir tu a lly u n c h a n g e d in 1968. M a r k e t c o n d itio n s r e fle c t a la r g e ca rr y o v er o f p e a n u t s u p p lie s, c a u sin g th e a v e r a g e p r ic e to r e m a in n e a r th e su p p o r t le v e l o f $ 2 2 7 p er to n th r o u g h o u t 1967. F o r 1968, th e p r o sp e c ts fo r p r ic e in c r e a s e s a re slig h t, a n d th e b a s ic a c r e a g e a llo tm e n ts w ill re m a in u n c h a n g e d . G e o r g ia fa rm ers w ill grow n e a r ly o n e -h a lf m illio n a c r es o f p e a n u ts, m a in ta in in g th e ir n u m b er o n e p o s itio n a s p r o d u cer o f th is crop in th e D is tr ic t. A la b a m a r a n k s sec o n d , w ith 1 8 5 ,0 0 0 a c r e s o f g oob ers. C o rn L ik e th e ir U . S . c o u n te rp a r ts, D is t r ic t fa rm ers w ill p ro b a b ly c u r ta il a c r e a g e s b y 8 p er c en t. In c r e a s e d p a r tic ip a tio n in th e fe e d g ra in s p ro g ra m in th e S o u th a n d U .S . a c c o u n ts for m o s t o f th e r e d u ctio n . In 196 7 th e n a tio n ’s fa rm ers p r o d u c e d a r ec o rd 4 .7 b illio n b u sh e ls o f corn . T h is la r g e crop c a u se d p r ic e s to d e c lin e la s t fa ll a n d w in ter. In a d d itio n , c a r ry o v er s u p p lie s o f co rn a n d o th er fe e d g ra in s a d v a n c e d sh a r p ly . T h u s, th e fe e d g ra in p ro g ra m w a s m o d ifie d to a llo w p a r tic ip a n ts to d iv e r t 2 5 a c r e s or u p to o n e -h a lf th e ir corn a c re a g e a llo tm e n t, w h ic h e v e r is larger. A lso , fa rm ers w ill r e c e iv e d iv e r s io n p a y m e n ts o f a b o u t 6 0 c e n ts p er b u sh e l tim e s th e fa rm s’ p r o jec ted y ie ld o n a ll d iv e r te d a c r e s a b o v e th e m a n d a to r y 2 0 p e r c e n t o f th e ir a llo tm e n t. I n th e S o u th th e in c e n t iv e to r e d u c e corn a cr e a g e s is r e in fo r c ed b y m o re fa v o r a b le la n d u se a lte r n a tiv e s o ffered b y c o m p e titiv e crop s. M O N T H L Y R E V IE W G rea ter a cr e a g e s o f co tto n , so y b e a n s , a n d r ic e w ill in t e n s if y th e c o m p e titio n for corn la n d in m a n y area s. D is t r ic t p la n tin g s o f o th e r fe e d g ra in s, su ch a s o a ts, are e x p e c te d to fa ll b y 6 p e rc e n t, w h ile so rg h u m p r o d u c tio n m a y in c r e a s e s lig h tly . M o s t o f th e a d v a n c e w ill o ccu r in L o u isia n a . T o b acco D is t r ic t to b a cco p ro d u c er s a n tic ip a te c u ttin g a c r e a g e s b y o ver o n e -te n th , a n d v ir tu a lly a ll o f th e a d ju s tm e n t w ill b e in th e G eo rg ia -F lo rid a flu e-cu red p ro d u cin g reg io n s. A s in th e c o tto n , rice , a n d fe e d g rain areas, th e r e d u c tio n c a n b e e x p la in e d b y a d ju s tm e n ts in G o v e r n m e n t p ro gram s. C u rren tly , p ro d u cers o f flu e-cu red to b a c c o are o p e r a tin g u n d er a n a crea g e-p o u n d a g e p rogram p a ss e d in 1965. T h is la w s ta te s th a t e a c h grow er is a ss ig n e d a b a sic a crea g e a llo tm e n t a n d a q u ota, in p o u n d s, o f to b a cco h e c a n s e ll ea c h y ea r. I f a n in d iv id u a l e x p e c ts g o o d y ie ld s p er a cre, h e m a y v o lu n ta r ily p la n t few er a c r es th a n h is a llo tm e n t a n d s t ill grow e n o u g h to b a cc o to fill h is sa le s q u o ta. In 1 966 th e g row in g se a so n w a s p oor, so m a n y p ro d u cers d id n o t fill th e ir q u o ta . S in c e th e y c o u ld carry th e u n u se d p o r tio n o f th e q u o ta in to th e n e x t gro w in g se a so n , th e y e x p a n d e d a cr e a g e s la s t y e a r. W ith a g ood gro w in g se a s o n in 1967, m a n y p ro d u cers n o t o n ly u se d a ll th e ir q u o ta s b u t to o k a d v a n ta g e o f a n o v e r m a rk etin g p r o v isio n Digitized M A Y 1for 9 6 8FRASER o f th e law . In 1968 flu e-cu red to b a c co grow ers a re e x p e c te d to c u t a c r e a g e s to m o r e n e a r ly m a tch p r o d u ctio n to th e ir q u o ta s. In fire-cu red b u r ley , a n d d ark a ir-cu red p ro d u c in g r e g io n s o f T e n n e s s e e , to ta l a c r ea g e s w ill e q u a l la s t y e a r ’s le v e l, re fle c tin g m in o r a d ju s t m e n ts in a llo tm e n ts a n d p e ss im ism to w a rd 1 968 p r ice p ro sp e cts. „ „ R o b e rt E. Sw eeney B a n k A n n o u n c e m e n ts The Claxton Bank, Claxton, Georgia, a nonmember bank, began to rem it at par on A p ril 1 fo r checks drawn on it when received from the Federal Reserve Bank. On the same date the Plaquemine Bank and Trust Company, Plaquemine, Louisiana, opened as a non member bank and began to rem it at par. Vernon E. LaCour is president; other officers are to be named. Capital is $250,000; surplus and other cap ital funds, $250,000. 1967 Operating Ratios of Sixth District Member Banks is a summary report of various ratios com puted fo r 1967 from the Reports of Condition and Income and Dividends Reports. Member bank groupings are by deposit size fo r the D is tric t and by state. Now avail able upon request to the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of A tlanta, A tlanta, Georgia 30303. 63 M i s s i s s i p p i : I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n B I n r i n g s t e r d e p 64 e n d e n c e F a c to r ie s sta n d in g w h e r e c o tto n o n c e grew s y m b o liz e M is s is s ip p i’s effo rts to c o m p le m e n t h er a g r ic u ltu r e w ith in d u s tr y . A s w o rk ers h a v e b e e n p u sh e d off th e fa rm b y a d v a n c e d a g r ic u ltu r a l te c h n o lo g y , th e y h a v e n e e d e d n e w jo b s, a s h a v e o th e r M is s is s ip p ia n s e n te r in g th e la b o r m a rk et for th e first tim e . P r o v id in g th e s e jo b s h a s b e en th e fo c u s a n d c o n tin u in g c h a lle n g e o f th e s ta te ’s “ B a la n c e A g r ic u ltu r e w ith I n d u s tr y ” p rogram ( B A W I ) , c o n c e iv e d in 1937. C r e a tin g en o u g h n e w n o n fa r m jo b s h a s b e e n d ifficu lt for M is s is s ip p i, b e c a u se o f h e r la rg e n u m b er o f d is p la c e d fa rm w ork ers. S in c e 1960, 3 4 ,0 0 0 a d d itio n a l w o rk ers h a v e le f t th e farm . A lth o u g h so m e o f th e m h a v e m ig r a te d to o th er sta te s, m a n y h a v e b e e n a b so r b e d in to n o n fa rm jo b s, w h ic h h a v e gro w n b y 1 2 6 ,0 0 0 in th e sa m e p erio d . M a n u fa c tu r in g p r o v id e d 4 7 ,0 0 0 o f th e s e jo b s, w h ile th e r e m a in d e r w a s c o n tr ib u te d b y th e tra d e, c o n str u c tio n , se r v ic e s, fin a n c e a n d g o v ern m e n t sec to r s. A s a r e su lt, m o r e th a n 9 0 p e r c e n t o f M is s is s ip p i’s w o rk fo rce is n o w e m p lo y e d in n o n fa rm jo b s, c o m p a r e d w ith 8 2 p e r c e n t in 1960. O n e o u t o f e v e r y fou r cu r r e n t n o n fa r m jo b s h a s b e e n c r ea te d sin c e th e n . I n t e r d e p e n d e n c e W ith In d u str y A s M is s is s ip p i h a s b e c o m e in d u s tr ia liz e d , it s e c o n o m y h a s tie d it s e lf to d e v e lo p m e n ts o u ts id e th e sta te . T h is is p a r tic u la r ly tr u e fo r m a n y o f th e s t a te ’s m a n u fa c tu r in g firm s w h o s e ll th eir p r o d u c ts in r e g io n a l a n d n a tio n a l m a r k e ts a n d a re a ffe c te d d ir e c tly b y c h a n g e s in th e in c o m e s a n d fin a n c ia l r e so u r c e s o f b u y e r s. T h e g ro w in g a p p a re l, fu r n itu r e, a n d p r o c e sse d fo o d s in d u s tr ie s a re v e r y s e n s itiv e to c h a n g e s in n a tio n a l a n d r e g io n a l c o n su m e r d e m a n d . U p s a n d d o w n s in th e lu m b e r in d u s tr y te n d to fo llo w d e v e lo p m e n ts in c o n str u c tio n , w h ic h is in tu rn in flu e n c e d b y th e a v a ila b ilit y o f m o r tg a g e fu n d s a n d b y th e in v e s tm e n t d e c is io n s o f n a tio n a l firm s. E m p lo y m e n t a t M is s is s ip p i’s c o a sta l s h ip b u ild in g c o m p lex , a s w e ll a s in h e r e le c tr ic a l e q u ip m e n t fa c to r ie s, p a r tly re fle c ts th e le v e l o f n a tio n a l d e fe n s e sp e n d in g . T h e s e s ix n a tio n a lly o r ie n te d in d u str ie s to g e th e r e m p lo y tw o -th ir d s o f th e s ta te ’s m a n u fa c tu r in g w ork ers. O th er n o n fa rm b u s in e s s e s se r v in g lo c a l m a r k e ts a re b y n o m e a n s in s u la te d from o u t-o f-sta te e c o n o m ic c o n d itio n s, a lth o u g h th e lin k s a re n o t a s d ir e c t a s in m a n u fa c tu r in g . L o c a l m e r ch a n ts, su p p lie rs, a n d co n tr a cto r s a r e a ffe c te d in d ir e c tly , a s w ork ers in n a tio n a lly o r ie n te d in d u s tr ie s s p e n d M O N TH LY R E V IE W The continued growth of nonfarm jobs since 1960 has more than made up for the shrinkage of farm jobs. As a result, over 90 percent of M ississippi’s workers are now employed off the farm. FARM 100 0 Employment (Thousands, Annual Averages) NONFARM 200 400 60p t--------1--------1--------r th e ir p a y c h e c k s. W h en n a tio n a l e c o n o m ic w in d s b lo w , m o s t M is s is s ip p ia n s fe e l th e b reeze. P a u s e a n d G row th in 1 9 6 7 T h e s t a te ’s e m p lo y m e n t p a tte r n in 1 9 6 7 illu s tr a te s th is in te r d e p e n d e n c e . F o r th e y ea r , m a n u fa c tu r in g e m p lo y m e n t in c r e a se d b y le s s th a n o n e p e r c e n t— th e s m a lle s t e x p a n sio n in s ix y ea r s. S e a s o n a lly a d ju s te d fig u res r e v e a l th a t a n 8-p erc e n t a n n u a l r a te o f d e c lin e d u rin g th e first h a lf o f th e y e a r w a s fo llo w e d b y a 1 0 -p e r ce n t in c r e a se in th e se c o n d h a lf. T h is is a n e x p e c te d p a tter n s in c e n a tio n a l in c o m e a n d p r o d u c tio n w ere s im i la r ly w ea k in th e first h a lf a n d stro n g in th e se c o n d . T h e sa m e g en era l p a tte r n o ccu rred in m o s t o f M is s is s ip p i’s m a n u fa c tu r in g in d u str ie s. T h e in c r e a se d in te r d e p e n d e n c e a ls o sh o w e d u p in th e c o n str u c tio n in d u str y , w h e re jo b s r o se a t a 3 -p e r c e n t r a te in 1967. H e r e a p r o n o u n c e d 25p e r c e n t a n n u a l r a te o f d e c lin e in th e first h a lf p r e c e d e d a n e v e n b o ld er 3 5 -p e r c e n t in c r e a s e in th e se c o n d . A cu tb a ck in th e F e d e r a l h ig h w a y p rogram co n tr ib u te d to th e first-h a lf slo w d o w n , w h ile th e e a r ly sta g e s o f P a s c a g o u la ’s $ 1 3 0 -m illio n sh ip y a r d a d d itio n b o o ste d th e se c o n d -h a lf M is s is s ip p i’s E m p lo y m e n t Civilian Employment Nonfarm Employment* Manufacturing Construction Farm Employment First Half 1967 Second Half 1967 Total 1967 Jan.-Mar. 1968 + 0.1 - 2.9 - 8.1 -2 5 .0 -2 3 .8 + 1.0 + 7.4 + 9.8 +34.9 + 1.1 + 0.5 + 2.2 + 0.7 + 2.8 - 1 1 .4 + 6.8 + 3.0 + 1.1 + 19.4 +39.9 ‘ Includes services, trade, finance, fields not separately shown. government, and other NOTE: Seasonally adjusted data expressed as annual rates of change. Digitized M A Y for 1 9 6FRASER 8 figu res so m ew h a t. I t w o u ld b e m isle a d in g to a t tr ib u te th e c o n str u c tio n e m p lo y m e n t p a tte r n e n tir e ly to in te r d e p e n d e n c e o n th e n a tio n a l sc e n e , h o w ev er, sin c e th e tim in g o f lo c a l c o n tr a ct c o m p le tio n s w a s a ls o im p o rta n t. C o n sid e r in g th e d ir e c t co n tr ib u tio n to th e to ta l n u m b er o f n o n fa rm jo b s m a d e b y n a tio n a lly o r ie n te d fa c to r ie s a n d c o n str u c tio n firm s, to g e th e r w ith th eir in d ir e c t in flu e n c e o n m o re lo c a lly o r ie n te d b u sin e sse s, it is n o t su rp r isin g th a t th e sa m e 1 967 p a tter n o f p a u se a n d g row th a ls o a p p ea r ed in s e a s o n a lly a d ju ste d n o n fa rm e m p lo y m en t. T h e to ta l n u m b er o f n o n fa rm jo b s fe ll a t a 3 -p er c e n t ra te in th e first h a lf o f 1967, th e n grew a t a 7 -p e r c en t ra te in th e se co n d . F o r th e y e a r a s a w h o le , n o n fa rm jo b s in c r e a se d 2 p ercen t. T h is e x p a n sio n re p r e se n te d th e w e a k e st grow th in a n y y e a r sin c e 1960. In o th e r w o rd s, M is s is sip p i w a s n o t a s su c c e s sfu l in b a la n c in g a g r ic u l tu re w ith in d u s tr y in 196 7 a s sh e h a s b e e n in o th e r y e a r s b e c a u se o f h er slu g g ish p erfo rm a n ce d u rin g th e first s ix m o n th s. A g r ic u ltu r e S till Im p o r ta n t D e s p it e M is s is s ip p i’s in c r e a se d in d u s tr ia liz a tio n , g ro w in g d e p e n d e n c e o n e c o n o m ic d e v e lo p m e n ts o u ts id e th e sta te , a n d d e c lin in g farm w ork force— a g r ic u ltu r e r e m a in s im p o rta n t. C o tto n is s t ill th e m a jo r c a sh crop , a s a r e c e n t Review (F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 8 ) p o in te d o u t. C o tto n p la n tin g s in 196 7 w ere s u b s ta n tia lly r e d u ce d b y th e G o v e r n m e n t’s a cre a g e d iv e r sio n p rogram , a n d p o o r w ea th e r r ed u ce d y ie ld s . S o y b e a n grow ers, tru ck g a rd en ers, a n d liv e sto c k p ro d u cers fa red b etter, h o w ever, w ith h ig h e r p r ic e s a n d g o o d y ie ld s . P r o s p e c t s fo r 1 9 6 8 T h e n a tio n a l e c o n o m y h a s h a d a n in c r e a sin g in flu e n c e o n M is s is s ip p i. S in c e m o s t e x p e r ts a re p r e d ic tin g stro n g n a tio n a l in c o m e grow th in 1968, a g o o d y e a r s e e m s in th e offing. A v a ila b le fig u res for e a r ly 1 968, w h ile s till sk e tc h y , a p p ea r to b ear o u t ou r o p tim ism . A h e a r te n in g fa cto r is th e c o n str u c tio n o f th e $1 3 0 m illio n sh ip y a r d a d d itio n a t P a sc a g o u la , w h ich is a lr e a d y p ro v id in g c o n sid e r a b le im p e tu s to th e s t a te ’s e c o n o m y . W illia m N . C ox, III T h is is one of a series of a rticles in which econom ic d evelo p m en ts in each of the S ix th D istric t sta te s are discussed. D evelo p m en ts in G eorgia’s econom y w ere a n a ly ze d in th e A p r il 1968 R E V I E W , an d a discus sion of T en n essee’s econom y is sch edu led for a fo rth com ing issue. 65 S i x t h D is tric t S ta tis tic s S ea so n a lly A djusted (All data are in d exes, 1 9 5 7 -5 9 = IOO, u n le s s in d ica ted o th erw ise.) One Two M onth M onths Ago Ago L atest Month (1968) One Year Ago SIXTH DISTRICT INCOME AND SPENDING . . . . . Crops Feb. 63,766 Mar. 230 Feb. 146 154 Feb. 152 Feb. 61,616r 60,030r 58,760 229 134 137 158 167 131 125 146 156 145 220 210 L a test Month (1968) M a n u f a c t u r i n g ...................................... Mar. N o n m a n u fa c tu rin g ..................................Mar. C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................... M ar. Farm E m p lo y m e n t...................................... M ar. U nem ploym ent R ate (P e rc e n t of Work F o r c e ) ................... Mar. Avg. W eekly Hrs. in Mfg. (Hr*.) . . . M ar. One Two Month Months Ago Ago One Year Ago 159 153 102 83 160 153 103 96 161 152 103 77 2.9 40.6 2.9 41.1 3.0 41.5 42.4 280 216 214 279 215 205 279 216 216 256 189 185 155 148 103 2.6 FINANCE AND BANKING In stalm ent Credit a t Banks* (Mil. $) . Mar. . Mar. 305 269 169p 322 266 158 140 140 170 134 156 114 105 121 133 109 180 141 133 64 141 140 169 132 157 116 106 120 132 109 181 141 135 67 286 256 175 295 254 158 M em ber B ank L o a n s ..................................M ar. M em ber B ank D e p o s i ts .............................M ar. Bank D e b its * * ................................................Mar. PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT N onfarm E m p lo y m e n t ............................Mar. M anufacturing ..................................... Mar. Apparel ...................................................Mar. C h e m i c a l s .............................................. Mar. F abricated M e t a l s .................................Mar. F o o d ............................................................ Mar. Lbr., Wood Prod., Furn. & Fix. . . . Mar. P a p e r ........................................................Mar. Prim ary M e t a l s ..................................... Mar. T extiles ................................................... Mar. Transportation Equipm ent . . . . Mar. N o n m a n u fa c tu rin g ..................................... Mar. C o n s t r u c t i o n ..........................................Mar. Farm E m p lo y m e n t..................................... Mar. U nem ploym ent Rate (P ercent of Work F o r c e ) ................... Mar. Insured Unem ploym ent (P ercent of Cov. E m p .) ........................Mar. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg. (Hrs.) . . . Mar. C onstruction C o n t r a c t s * ....................... Mar. R e s i d e n t i a l ...............................................Mar. All O t h e r ................................................... Mar. Electric Power Production** . . . . Feb. Cotton C o n s u m p tio n * * ............................ Mar. Petrol. Prod, in C oastal La. and Miss.** Mar. 140 140 169 132 157 116 106 120 132 109 183 140 130 66 136 137 169 131 151 113 106 119 129 108 174 136 128 68 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.5 2.0 41.0 184 222 151 155 118 223 2.1 41.2 173 186 162 152 109 222 2.4 40.4 196 224 173 150 112 265 2.1 41.0 146r 172r 124 145 118 223 FINANCE AND BANKING Loans* All M em ber B a n k s .................................Mar. Large B a n k s .......................................... Mar. Deposits* All M em ber B a n k s .................................Mar. Large B a n k s .......................................... Mar. Bank D e b its * /* * .......................................... Mar. 268 237 267 238 266 239 247 223 204 178 225 204 181 210 203 181 213 185 167 194 8,393 205 150 8,179r 202 156 7,978r 198 113 7,830 182 148 ALABAMA INCOME Personal Incom e (Mil. $ Annual Rate) . Feb. M anufacturing P a y r o lls ............................ Mar. Farm C ash R e c e i p t s ................................. Feb. PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm E m p l o y m e n t ............................ Mar. M anufacturing ......................................Mar. N o n m a n u fa c tu rin g .................................Mar. C o n s t r u c t i o n ......................................Mar. Farm E m p lo y m e n t......................................Mar. U nem ploym ent Rate (P ercen t of Work F o r c e ) ................... Mar. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg. (Hrs.) . . . Mar. 127 128 126 117 62 127 128 127 119 4.3 41.6 4.5 41.3 41.3 41.2 251 247 199 205 233 184 183 Personal Incom e (Mil. Annual Rate) . Feb. 17,634 17,256r M anufacturing P a y r o ll s ............................ Mar. 273 274 Farm C ash R e c e i p t s ................................. Feb. 163 164 16,982r 277 160 16,182 259 126 68 127 127 127 112 65 4.3 125 124 125 119 75 4.3 FINANCE AND BANKING M em ber B ank L o a n s ................................. Mar. M em ber Bank D e p o s i t s ........................Mar.196 Bank Debits** .......................................... Mar. 194 INCOME % PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Digitized66 for FRASER INCOME P ersonal Incom e (Mil. $ Annual R ate) . Feb. 12,531 12,083r M anufacturing P a y r o ll s .............................Mar. 226 226 Farm C ash R e c e i p t s ..................................Feb. 134 159 11,945 11,359 212 206 152 137 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm E m p l o y m e n t .............................M ar. 141 141 M a n u f a c t u r i n g ...................................... M ar. 133 133 N o n m a n u fa c tu rin g ..................................M ar. 145 145 C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................... M ar. 152 153 Farm E m p lo y m e n t...................................... M ar. U nem ploym ent R ate (P e rc e n t of Work F o r c e ) ....................M ar. 3.3 3.2 Avg. W eekly Hrs. in Mfg. (Hrs.) . . . M ar. 40.6 40.9 56 58 140 133 143 144 64 154 154 153 149 137 132 140 145 , . 3.2 39.6 40.4 236 276 224 237 220 9,805 199 183 9,374 198 150 9,303 188 147 131 121 133 153 60 132 131 FINANCE AND BANKING M em ber B ank L o a n s ..................................M ar. 282 M em ber B ank D e p o s i ts .............................M ar. 224 225 Bank D e b its * * ................................................M ar. 256 279 258 204 LOUISIANA INCOME P ersonal In co m a (Mil. $ A nnual R ata) . Feb . 10,094 M anufacturing P a y r o ll s .............................Mar. 200 Farm Cash R e c e i p t s ..................................Feb. 161 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT N onfarm E m p l o y m e n t .............................Mar. M a n u f a c t u r i n g ...................................... M ar. N o n m a n u fa c tu rin g ..................................M ar. C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................... M ar. Farm E m p lo y m e n t...................................... M ar. U n em ploym ent R ate (P e rc e n t of Work F o r c e ) ................... M ar. Avg. W eekly Hrs. in Mfg. (Hrs.) . . . M ar. 121 120 134 156 61 134 153 55 127 117 129 147 60 4.3 42.4 4.4 43.8 4.4 42.5 4.1 42.5 232 170 182 229 169 176 235 170 173 5,024 258 143 4,726 254 182 4,561 240 113 2145 23 143 151 140 155 64 143 151 140 160 59 142 151 139 156 60 140 149 136 153 61 4.1 41.2 4.5 41.0 4.6 40.3 4 40.6 332 235 246 340 242 226 330 241 217 294 224 207 FINANCE AND BANKING M em ber B ank L o a n s * .............................Mar. M em ber Bank D e p o s i t s * ........................ M ar. Bank D e b its * /* * ........................................... Mar. 220 158 163 MISSISSIPPI INCOME P ersonal Incom e (Mil. $ Annual R ate) . Fab. M anufacturing P a y r o ll s .............................Mar. Farm C ash R e c e i p t s ..................................Fab. PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT 251 195 216 FLORIDA N onfarm E m p l o y m e n t ............................ Mar. GEORGIA N onfarm E m p l o y m e n t .............................Mar. M anufacturing ...................................... Mar. N o n m a n u fa c tu rin g ..................................Mar. C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................... Mar. Farm E m p lo y m e n t...................................... Mar. U nem ploym ent R ate (P ercen t of Work F o r c e ) ................... Mar. Avg. W eekly Hrs. in Mfg. (Hrs.) . . . Mar. FINANCE AND BANKING M em ber B ank L o a n s * ............................. Mar. M em ber B ank D e p o s i t s * ........................ Mar. B ank D e b its* /• * ........................................... Mar. M O N T H L Y R E V IE W 2 L a test M onth (1968) One M onth Ago Two O ne M onths Year Ago Ago TENNESSEE INCOME Feb. 10,091 Personal Income (Mil. $, Ann. Rete) 220 Manufacturing P a y ro lls ........................ . Mar. 124 Farm Cash R e c e ip t s ............................ . Feb. 9,190 206 104 9,567 219 107 9.351 196 127 L atest M onth (1968) N o n m a n u fa c tu rin g ........................ C o n s t r u c t i o n ............................ Farm E m p lo y m e n t............................ U n em ploym ent R ate (P e rc e n t of Work Force) . . . . . Mar. Avg. W eekly Hrs. in Mfg. (Hrs.) . . . Mar. One M onth Ago Two M onths Ago O ne Year Ago 136 182 63 136 189 70 135 172 69 132 158 77 4.5 40.6 3.6 40.6 3.9 39.2 3.3 40.0 260 189 253 257 188 223 221 260 186 240 173 215 FINANCE ANO BANKING PRODUCTION ANO EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm E m p lo y m e n t........................ . Mar. M a n u fa c tu rin g .................. . . . M ar. 140 149 141 149 139 149 136 146 M em ber B ank L o a n s * ................... M em ber Bank Deposits* . . . . B ank D e b i t s * / * * ............................ ’For Sixth District area only. O ther to ta ls for e n tire six s ta te s . “ Daily a v e ra g e b a s is . r-R evised. p-Prelim inary estim a te . Sources: Personal incom e e stim a te d by th is Bank; n o n farm , m fg. a n d nonm fg. e m p ., m fg. p a y ro lls a n d h o u rs, a n d u nem p., U. S. D e p t of Labor a n d co o p e ra tin g s ta te «*enci«s; cotton consum ption, U. S. B ureau of C e n su s; c o n s tru c tio n c o n tra c ts , F. W. Dodge Corp.; petrol, prod., U. S. B ureau of M ines; in d u stria l u se of e lec. power. Fed. Power Comm.; farm c a sh re c e ip ts a n d farm e m p ., U.S.DA. O th e r in d ex e s b a s e d on d a ta c o lle c te d by th is Bank. All in d ex es c a lc u late d by th is Bank. D e b it s t o D e m a n d D e p o s it A c c o u n t s Insured C om m ercial B anks in th e Sixth District (In T h o u sa n d s o f Dollars) Mar. 1968 Feb. 1968 P e rc e n t C hang* P e rc e n t C hange Year-to-Date 3 m o n th s Mar. 1968 from 1968 Feb. M ar. from 17 1968 1967 1967 Year-to-Date 3 m o n th s Mar. 1968 from 1968 Mar. Feb. Mar. from 1967 1968 1967 1967 standard m e t r o p o l it a n ................... L akeland M onroe C ounty . . . STATISTICAL AREASt Birmingham# Gadsden . . Huntsville . Mobile . Montgomery Tuscaloosa . 1,736,159 59,143 179.606 481,726 313,364 94,677 1.544,069 57,953 173,969 491.036 300,810 98,966 1.576,176 59,370 186,993 471,514r 306,223 96,340 747.567 1.556,403 2,623,786 574,387 199,461 142,315 737,822r 1,447,095 2.490,100 571,439 202,015 147,886 691,024r 1,644,258 2,429,516r 555,654 197,844 128,230 1,578,606 487,564 l,5 0 6 ,4 2 6 r 487.148 1,380,371 446,687 91,481 5,304,003 301,762 223,814 258,090 283,214 88,281 4,847,883 282,774 218,235 247,939 268,713 86,005 4,944,846r 287,852 2 14,762r 254,615 282,970 558,276 132,834 153,089 2,512,241 558,917 127,728 147,024 2,396,283 549,869 112,850 141,788 2,484,461 714,623 673,221 619,416 624,020 464,750 1,794,494 578,437 433,595 1,593,531 632.411 451,693 1,627,292 +12 +10 + 9 +2 -0 + 4 -4 +3 +2 -2 +2 + 9 +4 +2 +6 -4 Ft Lauderdale Plywood Jacksonville Miami . Orlando . Pensacola Tallahassee TampaSt. Petersburg Palm Beach . Albany Atlanta Augusta Columbus Macon Savannah Baton Rouge layette Uke Charles Ne* Orleans Jackson . Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville -4 +1 +8 +d -5 +5 +8 + +1 3 -1 + 1 -4 + 11 +5 +0 +14 +9 +17 +3 +19 + 14 +9 +9 +19 +16 +7 +5 +4 A thens ........................ B r u n s w i c k ................... Dalton ........................ E l b e r t o n ........................ G a i n e s v i l l e ................... LaG ran g e ................... V a l d o s t a ........................ A l e x a n d r i a ................... B unkie ........................ New I b e r i a ................... P laq u em in e . . . . T h i b o d a u x ................... Biloxi-Gulfport . . . H a ttie sb u rg . . . . Laurel ........................ M e r i d i a n ........................ N a t c h e z ........................ P a sc ag o u la — MOSS P o in t . . . . V i c k s b u r g ................... Yazoo C i t y ................... OTHER CENTERS Anniston . Dothan Selma . Bartow Bradenton ! Brevard County °«ytona Beach MyersN. Ft Myers Ga,nesviiie . * 66,721 63,177 44,725 65,930 59,725 45,956 63,473 62,285 44,288 32,996 82,389 222,436 84,736 30,634 77,400 215,415 87,400 38,273 75,188 217,750 96,394 99,547 94,424 106,650 8M 98 82,466 86,679 + 5 +10 +9 +1 +1 +8 +8 - 1 4 -8 +6 +10 + 1 7 +2 +8 +3 -12 +6 -3 -7 +21 + 3 0 +1 +6 -3 +7 b#nks in « • Sixth D istrict po rtio n o f th e s ta te . to th re e c o u n tie s . r-Revised. m a y 1968 +9 Feb. 1968 123,114 39,786 58,586 18,915 387,648 116,076 856,145 69,945 125,377 35,181 63,590 18,597 341,539 120,732 803,939 67,367 124,741 38,706 56,492 19,615 361,940 101,679 692,594 62,688 78,308 42,071 95,329 14,420 67,370 35,273 23,738 25,929 72,699 54,661 77,751 40,863 87,379 12,486 62,228 33,886 19,833 24,974 70,844 51,369 73,710 40,492 78,412 18,552 71,082 31,530 23,694 21,438 71,564 54,475 11,903 135,110 6,089 41,963 36,330 12,476 20,781 12,094 123,665 6,145 35.602 31,801 11.995 21,181 11,659 139,084 6,784 38,171 33,581 10,694 22,879 106,122 55,755 36,873 63,380 38,537 107,493 54,545 37,016 63,355 37,895 108,221 55,421 33,963 64,132 39,747 59,632 41,007 29,650 58,209 43,764 27,232 54,014 40,828 26,447 79,463 76,663 181,021 78,407 70,907 145,247 65,384 77,289 170,164 +9 +6 +12 +13 +6 +10 +1 +11 +0 +8 -0 +1 + 9 + 4 + 18 +15 +4 +8 + 9 +5 +1 +6 +6 + 1 5 + 1 5 +8 -1 + 5 +7 +7 +3 + 1 3 +10 + 14 +4 +9 +7 +3 +4 +5 S t A u g u stin e . . . S t P e te rsb u rg . . . S a raso ta ........................ T am pa ........................ W inter Haven . . . Mar. 1968 +13 tP a rtia lly e s tim a te d . Jo h n so n City . . . . K i n g s p o r t ................... SIXTH DISTRICT, Total 32,789,673 A lab am a! F lo r id a } . . Georgia} Louisiana!* M is s iss ip p i* T e n n e sse e t* tE s tim a te d . 4,155,641 10,214,377 8.366,971 4,149,504 . 1,492,029 . 4,411,151 31,052,264r 30,997,710r 3,931,013 9,778,768r 7,819,002 4,102,170 1,439,634 3,981,677 3,850,904r 9,641,603r 7,890,053r 4,089,564r 1,385,980 4,139,606r -2 -1 +3 -8 + 4 +2 - 4 +13 +14 -4 +6 +4 1 + +3 +9 +15 +8 +4 +20 +4 +3 +6 -2 +9 -1 +18 +14 +4 -2 -1 +2 -0 +0 +2 +2 -6 +9 +1 +8 +25 +6 +6 +4 +7 +1 +4 +11 +7 + 14 +24 +12 +6 +4 +22 -22 -5 + 12 +0 +21 +2 +0 +2 -3 -10 +10 +8 +17 -9 +6 +4 +8 +0 + 12 +25 +24 +9 +12 +21 -8 +13 -3 +7 -3 +12 +6 +6 +11 -1 +5 +5 +2 +12 +2 -2 + 9 +1 + 7 +12 -1 + 3 +9 -3 +4 +10 + 1 6 +0 + 4 +12 + 1 3 +22 +2 3 -1 + 4 +6 + 9 +6 +11 +8 + 9 +6 + 1 4 +6 +1 +8 +12 +6 +11 +7 +11 #B irm in g h am d a ta revised to reflect e x p an sio n of th is SMSA 67 D is tric t B u s in e s s C o n d itio n s M o s t o f the D is t r ic t ’s e c o n o m ic in d ic a t o r s p o in te d s t r o n g ly u p w a rd re c e n tly , s u g g e s t i n g c o n tin u e d ex p a n s io n . L a rg e b a n k s e x p e rie n c e d a sh a r p rise o f b u s in e s s lo a n s in A p ril. C o n s u m e r s p e n d in g in c r e a s e d in M a r c h , fin a n c e d by la rg e r in c o m e s a n d h e a v ie r in s ta lm e n t c re d it e x te n s io n s . D is t r ic t fa r m e r s re p orte d h ig h e r r e c e ip ts and e x p e n s e s. R e s id e n t ia l c o n s tr u c t io n r e m a in e d stu rd y , s u p p o r t e d by a h ig h le vel o f c o m m it m e n t s a n d new m o rtg a g e le n d in g in the s in g le - f a m ily se c t o r by s a v in g s a n d Bank le n d in g , s ig n ific a n t ly e s p e c ia lly to b u s in e s s e s , in A p r il, j u d g in g fro m rose the su r g e in lo a n a c tiv ity a t la rge c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s . F ir m s e n g a g ed in r e ta il trad e, se r v ice s, a n d te x t ile m a n u fa c tu r in g w ere a m o n g th e h e a v ie s t b orrow ers. A t m id -m o n th , ru n -offs o f la rg e d e n o m in a tio n c er tific a te s o f d e p o sit w ere m in im a l in c o n tr a st w ith th o s e in so m e o th er p a rts o f th e c o u n tr y . E ffe c tiv e A p r il 19, 1968, th e B o a r d o f G o v ern o rs o f th e F e d e r a l R e se r v e S y s te m in s titu te d a n e w g ra d u a te d s c a le o f m a x im u m r a te s a llo w a b le o n tim e c e r tific a te s o f d e p o sit o f o v er $ 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 . T h e d is w eek. N o n fa r m lo a n a s s o c ia t io n s . e m p lo y m e n t w a s h e ld d o w n b y str ik e s a t A tla n ta a u to a s s e m b ly p la n ts. T h ro u g h M a r c h , the p ric e in d e x a n d fa r m c a s h r e c e ip ts w ere w e ll a b o v e y e a r -a g o le v e ls. C itru s p ro d u cts, h o g s, c a ttle a n d c a lv e s, a n d r ic e le d th e a d v a n c e in p ric es, w h ile e g g a n d c o tto n p r ic e s c o n tin u e d to fa ll. T h e c o s t o f fa rm in g in c r e a s e d fu rth er, w ith th e r ise in w a g e s, in te r e s t r a te s, a n d ta x es. D r o u g h t c o n d itio n s in F lo r id a a n d S o u th G eo rg ia fo r c ed fa rm ers to r e p la n t so m e a crea g e s. S o u th e r n h o u s in g sta rts w ere up s h a r p ly in c o u n t ra te o f th e F e d e r a l R e se r v e B a n k o f A tla n ta F e b ru a ry a n d d ip p e d o n ly s lig h t ly in M a r c h . T h e w a s in c r e a s e d from 5 to 5^2 p er c e n t, e ffe c tiv e p ace of new A p r il 2 2, 1968. m a in s v ig o r o u s, le d b y e x p a n sio n in b o th s in g le c o n str u c tio n c o n tr a c t a w a rd s re in fa m ily a n d m u lti-fa m ily r e s id e n tia l v o lu m e . In the first q u a rte r o f 1 9 6 8 . A u to m o b ile sa le s, w h ic h th e first q u arter, sa v in g s a n d lo a n a s s o c ia tio n s C o n s u m e r s p e n d in g becam e m ore v ig o r o u s a d v a n c e d in F eb ru a ry , r em a in e d a t a h ig h r a te in e x p e r ie n c e d a c o n sid e r a b le slo w in g o f n e t sa v in g s M a rch . com in flo w s, r e la tiv e to la s t y e a r ’s h ig h le v e ls , b u t m e rcia l b a n k s ro se r a p id ly , r efle c tin g in cr e a se d m a in ta in e d m o rtg a g e le n d in g v o lu m e a n d fu tu re sp e n d in g . c o m m itm e n ts w e ll. I n s ta lm e n t M a n u fa ctu re rs c r e d it p a id m o re e x te n s io n s to th e ir at w o rk e rs in M a r c h , d e sp it e a so m e w h a t sh o rte r a v e ra g e w o rk 68 NOTE: Data on which statements are based have been adjusted whenever possible to eliminate seasonal influences. M O N T H L Y R E V IE W
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