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Atlanta, Georgia March • 1962 Also in this issue: A N EW TW IST IN FLO RIDA DISTRICT BUSINESS C O N D ITIO N S SIXTH DISTRICT STATISTICS SIXTH DISTRICT INDEXES Occupational Change: Reflection of Economic Change Worry and a sense of impending danger to his occupation impelled Demetrius, a silversmith of the first century, to call together the work men of like occupation and remind them, “Sirs, ye know that by this craft we have our wealth.” He was worried for fear the evangelism of Paul would destroy the business of making silver shrines for the Goddess Diana. Demetrius was fighting change rather than adapting to it. Al though the Bible does not tell us what did eventually happen to the business of shrine-making in Asia Minor, we can speculate that a census of occupations taken some years later might well have shown a decline in the relative importance of silversmiths who busied them selves only with making shrines for Diana. Then, as now, what men did for a livelihood undoubtedly reflected their response to changing eco nomic opportunities. That the South’s economy has, in this century, been changing is not news, for the benefits and problems born of change are continually in the press. The recently released 1960 Census data on occupations may do no more than confirm what we have concluded from general ob servation. By looking at this additional information, however, we may be able to draw new inferences. Most of all, we can see how great the economic changes have been over the decades in that part of the South comprised of the Sixth Federal Reserve District states— Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The new figures enable us to see how people were occupied in 1960, compared with previous census years. Interesting Changes S ft fe r a f % sem IB w k o f j$ /a n ta For a summary view of the changing relative importance of occupa tions, look at the chart showing the percent of all employed persons engaged in seven general occupational groupings in the past three census years. Whether looking at changes over a ten- or twenty-year span, you see a drop in the relative importance of farm workers and laborers and an increase in craftsmen and operatives, professional and managerial personnel, clerical and sales workers, and service workers. Workers engaged by private householders lost importance during the 1940’s, but regained part of their earlier importance in the 1950’s. Clearly, the District has become less dependent upon rural occupa tions and more dependent upon occupations reflecting the area’s con tinuing industrialization. Moreover, this change has been a dramatic one: Farm jobs, which accounted for 36 percent of all occupations in 1940, dropped to 22 percent in 1950 and were at 9 percent in 1960. As a wider variety of occupations benefited from changes in the area’s economic structure, offsetting gains among other jobs were less striking, but still substantial. Occupational Distribution of Employed Persons Sixth District States, 1940, 1950, and 1960 Farmers and Farm Laborers Craftsmen and Operatives Laborers Professional and Managers Private Households Clerical and Sales Workers Service Workers Occupational Distribution, by State (Percent of Total Employed Persons) Type of Occupation Prof., Tech., and Managerial 1940 . . . . 1950 . . . . 1960 . . . . Farming 1940 . . . . 1950 . . . . 1960 . . . . Clerical and Sales 1940 . . . . 1950 . . . . 1960 . . . . Craftsmen and Operatives 1940 . . . . 1950 . . . . 1960 . . . . Private Household Workers 1940 . . . . 1950 . . . . 1960 . . . . Service Workers 1940 . . . . 1950 . . . . 1960 . . . . Laborers 1940 . . . . 1950 . . . . 1960 . . . . Occupation Not Reported 1940 . . . . 1950 . . . . 1960 . . . . Tenn. District 8.3 11.9 15.5 11.9 14.3 16.5 11.4 14.8 18.1 31.8 16.8 6. 2 57.3 41.1 20.1 32.9 21.5 10.3 35.5 21.8 8.9 10.1 14.6 18.3 11.8 16.1 18.4 6.0 10.0 13.7 11.4 15.3 18.4 10.3 14.7 18.4 21.8 26.4 25.9 21.9 30.0 33.0 18.8 26.6 28.8 10.9 19.4 28.0 24.1 30.7 33.0 20.1 27.7 30.2 7. 7 5.3 6. 3 9. 5 5.2 4. 5 9. 3 5.9 6. 3 8. 3 5.0 6. 1 6. 6 4.6 7. 0 6. 5 3.6 4. 0 8. 0 5.0 5. 5 4.2 5.8 7.7 9.0 9.7 9.9 5.0 6.3 7.7 6.4 8.0 9.4 3.4 5.0 7.0 5.5 6.8 7.8 5.5 7.0 8.4 7.9 7.6 7.1 11.3 8.1 5.8 8.2 7.5 6.2 10.0 9.6 7.5 6.9 6.6 6.2 6.9 6.1 5.4 8.4 7.5 6.3 0. 8 1.5 2.7 1. 1 1.4 6.2 0. 8 1.5 3.5 0. 6 1.4 4.2 0. 6 1.4 2.5 0. 8 1.7 4.6 0. 8 1.5 4.2 Ga. La. Ala. Fla. 9.9 13.1 16.7 16.4 19.6 21.4 10.7 13.3 16.8 12.3 16.5 19.4 39.5 24.1 9. 1 16.6 11.5 5. 2 34.0 20.9 8. 2 8.6 12.9 17.0 14.3 18.1 21.1 21.4 29.7 33.4 Miss. This general pattern of change is particularly worth noting, for it pretty well describes what happened in each District state. All the states except Florida were heavily dependent upon farm occupations in 1940, but by 1960 farm jobs had been reduced to only a fraction of their former importance. Even in Florida, less dependent upon agriculture, farm occupations had by 1960 dropped to about one-third of their former importance. In Mississippi, where agricultural employment plays a larger role than in other District states, farm employment dropped from 57 percent in 1940 to only 20 percent in 1960— a startling change, to say the least. One might well ask if the general similarity of changes in occupational structure among District states has, by it self, any significance. Undoubtedly it has. If it is true that people move into particular occupations in response to economic opportunities, the various District states must have been feeling the impact of broadly similar economic forces. The occupational changes we have noted here are also similar to those that have taken place in the nation as a whole, reminding us that the District is, to a considerable extent, reflecting economic changes of national scope. Within the generally similar pattern of occupational change, District states have experienced different degrees of change in the importance of various occupations. With varying rates of decline occurring in agricultural occupa tions in each state, the relative importance of farmers and farm laborers has moved nearer common ground at a lower level. Because of differing rates of gain, the relative importance of the other broad occupational classifications has moved nearer common ground at a higher level. Over the past ten to twenty years, therefore, occupational struc tures have tended to become somewhat more similar from state to state. Mississippi, with a particularly sharp drop in farm occupations, serves as a good illustration. The relative importance of farm occupations there in 1960 was closer to that of other District states than in 1950 or 1940, while the importance of craftsmen and operatives, to pick the occupational group now most important in Mississippi, rose much closer to the average of all District states. So far we have emphasized the shifting relative im portance of different occupations to focus attention on the area’s changing occupational structure. We should remember, however, that even if all occupations are gain ing they can change relative to one another: It is only essential that some increase more rapidly than others. To obtain an idea of the problems of adjustment involved, we should consider briefly the actual changes in the num bers of people engaged in various occupations. The social Changes in Occupation of Employed Persons I9 6 0 from 1950, Sixth District States (Thousands) Type of Occupation Ala. Fla. Ga. La. Miss. Tenn. District States Prof., Tech., and Kindred Workers +31 +95 + 40 +33 + 13 +31 + 243 Farmers and Farm Managers — 100 — 18 — 99 — 56 — 134 — 87 — 494 Managers, Officials and Proprietors + 12 +75 + 26 + 18 +7 + 8 + 146 Clerical and Kindred Workers +37 + 121 +55 +34 +18 +38 +303 Sales Workers + 11 +58 + 17 + 10 +4 +13 + 113 Craftsmen, Foremen, etc. + 29 +99 + 33 +24 +17 + 17 +219 Operatives and Kindred Workers + 21 + 79 +47 +33 +35 +38 +254 Private Household Workers + 12 + 25 + 13 + 18 +15 +9 +92 Service Workers + 22 +73 + 28 +25 + 12 + 19 + 177 Farm Laborers and Foremen —51 —9 — 50 — 29 — 24 —31 — 196 —3 + 17 —8 —8 —5 —3 — 10 +7 — 34 +37 +211 +87 + 1,060 Laborers Occupation Not Reported Total Employed +13 +93 + 30 +30 +34 +710 + 131 + 132 Note: Parts may not add to totals because of rounding. . 2 • and economic problems of adapting to change are one thing when opportunities for some types of employment are simply not progressing as rapidly as for others; they are quite another thing when the opportunities for some types are actually decreasing. The latter has been the case in District states. Between 1950 and 1960, job opportunities for farmers, farm laborers, and laborers in nonfarm work dropped about 700,000. About 1.7 million jobs were provided in a wide variety of occupations, however, thus more than offsetting the declines mentioned. On balance, the total number of employed persons was about one million greater in 1960 than in 1950. As impressive as this job increase was, population fig ures tell us that economic opportunities for the six states as a group were not sufficiently great to meet the needs of the area. Total population, though increasing, grew less than would have been indicated by the excess of births over deaths. More people moved out of the area in search of economic opportunities than moved in. Florida provides a major exception, for population migration there was totally different from that in other District states. Many more people moved in than moved out as the state experienced a tremendous economic ex pansion. The state did, however, experience an actual loss of about 27,000 jobs in farming between 1950 and 1960. Undoubtedly, it was much easier to adjust to this limited loss of job opportunities in farming in Florida than in other District states. A Reflection of Varied Economic Forces Anyone with a philosophical turn of mind might wonder whether the changes in occupational structure we have been discussing are caused by certain complex, impersonal economic forces or whether they are caused by economic forces set in motion by people themselves. Whatever starts the forces rolling, we know that the occupational structure does summarize the way in which people have responded to economic opportunities. Perhaps the initiat ing forces are in the minds of men who are continually looking for new things to do or better ways to do old things. We can at least see evidence of this as a prime factor in the changes noted in the District’s occupational structure. Take the decline in farm occupations. As an article in the January issue of this Review pointed out, improved farm technology was the major factor explaining the wide spread exodus from District farms. Farmers mechanized their operations more completely and, in many instances, switched from the raising of cash crops, heavily dependent upon labor, to livestock production. Fortunately, while the exodus from farms was occurring, industrialists were able to expand the region’s manufactur ing activities at a rapid pace. This, in turn, was instru mental in drawing large numbers of people to the area’s cities, as an article in the Review of last October pointed out. Manufacturing, with its need for many employees in centralized locations, has characteristically been associated with the trend toward urbanization. These developments have been reflected in the expanded importance of opera tives, largely in manufacturing, and of construction crafts men, such as carpenters, electricians, and plumbers. The same October article pointed out, “The firms that supplied the manufacturers found it more economical to be nearby. As more and more people concentrated in single areas, city life itself created a demand for new products and services, and the process became self-generating . . .” Moreover, as higher incomes resulted from eco nomic growth in both the District and the nation, efforts were directed toward satisfying the rising demands for services associated with an expanding tourist business. Consistent with these developments has been the growing importance of service workers and clerical and sales workers. As men have improved technology, the need for pro fessional and technical skills has increased rapidly. The growth of business enterprise has also increased the need for managerial ability. These influences have been at work in District states, as we can see from the increased im portance of persons employed in professional, technical, and managerial occupations over the last twenty years. What of the Future? That great change has occurred in the occupational structure of District states is, by itself, probably of great significance, for it means that people in the area have adapted to changing economic opportunities. There is no way of knowing whether or not still other opportunities were missed because of inability to take advantage of them for lack of needed skills or knowledge. Since there is also no way of knowing the specific needs of the future, perhaps people of the area should prepare themselves in the broadest possible way to be able to seize opportunities that may arise. Undoubtedly a clue to the District’s future needs is found in developments in the professional, technical, and managerial occupations. The number of people in these occupations has grown rapidly. Shortages of persons quali fied to fill professional, technical, and managerial positions still exist in spite of a generally high level of unemploy ment. Manpower experts tell us that a scarcity of such highly trained personnel may well be a limiting factor in future economic growth. Job opportunities, as in the past, are likely to grow fastest in those occupations requiring the most education and training. From this it seems clear that the increased emphasis being placed on improving educational facilities here represents a wise preparation for the future. N o t houses finely ro o fe d or the ston es o f w alls w ellbuilded, nay nor canals and do ck ya rd s, m ake the city, __ A r i s t i d e s bu t m en able to use their o p p o rtu n ity. P h i l i p M. W e b s t e r NOTICE According to revised postal regulations, it is necessary that fourth class mail bear the complete address of the addressee. You may help to insure prompt delivery of your MONTHLY REVIEW by informing us of your box number or street address, if it is not presently included on the REVIEW envelope. • 3 • ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN FLORIDA during the latest national recession, which is represented by the shaded portion to the right, w ere v e ry much like those of the preceding reces sion, the shaded portion to the left. So fa r, recovery in Florida has not brought about a return to the level that would have been reached had the expansion of the 1958-60 period continued w ithout interruption. Bi II ions of Dollars Seas. Adj., Annual Rate Personal Income 1958*60 Trend Percent Percent N o nfarm Em ploym ent 1 9 58-60 Trend Percent Percent M anufacturing Employment 1958-60 Trend Percent Dept. Store Sales 3~Mo. Moving Avg. 1958-60 Trend Percent Percent 1 9 58-60 Trend Note: Trend lines computed by a logarithmic least squares method. A New Twi Last April’s Review article on Florida said that “recent economic developments bear many of the characteris tics of an old-fashioned recession.” At that time the en tire nation was at just about the bottom of the decline in business activity. Since then, Florida, like the rest of the country, has emerged from recession and is well into the recovery stage of the business cycle. The latest recession in Florida was mild. In this respect it was remarkably similar to other postwar declines there. Typically, recessions since the war have only inter rupted, not reversed, the expansion that went before. The latest one is no exception. None of the five strategic indicators shown in the panel to the left experienced any sharp drop after the peak of nationwide general business activity was reached in May 1960. About all the recession did was to flatten out the lines— to slow or halt the rate of increase established in the 1958-60 expansion. Florida also has typically suffered less from recessions than the nation as a whole. A comparison of data for Florida and the United States shows that the decline in business activity during recessions has usually been con siderably smaller for the state. The latest recession con formed to this pattern, as can be seen from the charts in the panel to the right. In the left-hand portion of these charts, the high point in national general business activity (which occurred in May 1960) is set equal to 100 percent for each indicator. The months preceding and following this peak are expressed as percentages of the peak figure. In every case, Florida shows less effect from the recession than does the United States. But though the last recession followed the previous pattern, the same cannot be said for the current recovery. In the past, expansion after the trough generally proceeded more rapidly in Florida than in the nation. At this point in previous recoveries, all the indicators had been well above the U. S. indexes for some time. In the present case, however, Florida seems to be recovering at about the same pace as the rest of the country. This can be seen in the right-hand portion of the charts to the right; the low point in national general business activity (which occurred in February 1961) is set equal to 100 percent for each indicator. Only the two employment series have been higher than the comparable national figures for any considerable time. Even in those cases, the difference is smaller than the same comparison would show for pre vious recovery periods. Furthermore, when we project the rate of increase of the 1958-60 expansion period through 1962, as shown in the dashed portions of the trend lines in the left-hand panel, it is evident that none of the indicators has yet reached the level that would have been expected had that rate of expansion continued without interruption. This is not surprising. A new expansion period that starts after a recession will ordinarily begin at a lower level than would have existed had activity followed the old trend line. If the current expansion only proceeds at the same pace as in 1958-60— that is, if the new trend line is . 4 . Florida parallel to the old one at a lower level— this would still be very rapid. It is not unheard of, however, for the rate of increase during one expansion period to be greater than that of the preceding period. The table below shows that personal income, nonagricultural employment, department store sales, and bank debits all had higher rates of increase in the 1954-57 expansion period than they did in 1949-53; RECESSION did not affect Florida's economy as much as it did the nation's. RECOVERY, how ever, has pro ceeded a t about the same pace in Florida as in the U.S.; in previous recovery periods, the state's advance w as more rapid. Recession Recovery Percent Percent Annual Rate of Increase in Three Expansion Periods in Florida 1949-53 1954-57 1958-60 P e r s o n a l I n c o m e .............................. . . 1 1 .7 1 4 .2 9 .2 N o n fa rm . . 7. 0 1 0 .0 6 .9 E m p lo y m e n t M a n u fa c t u r in g . . E m p lo y m e n t . . . . . 8 .4 8 .0 9 .3 . . . . 9 .2 1 3 .2 1 0 .2 D e b i t s ..................................... . . 1 4 .9 1 9 .5 1 0 .6 D e p a r t m e n t S t o r e S a le s B an k . . manufacturing employment had a higher rate of increase in the 1958-60 expansion than in 1954-57. It is necessary, of course, for the higher rate of increase in the later expansion period to be continued for some time in order for a series to regain the level that would have been produced by a continuation of the previous trend. And in fact the first four indicators did maintain the higher 1954-57 rate long enough to get back to the 1949-53 trend; similarly, manufacturing employment maintained the higher 1958-60 rate long enough to return to the 1954-57 trend line. It is, of course, too early to tell whether or not the current expansion period will return our indicators to the 1958-60 trend line. The fragmentary evidence so far available about the current recovery is subject to different interpretations. The optimist can certainly point to several encouraging signs. Most lines of business activity are now at higher levels than ever before. The current tourist season shows promise of being the best since 1957. Hotel occupancy rates and room sales in 1961 were higher than in 1960 in spite of a poor showing in the first half of the year. Looking at the longer-term future, there are several expansionary forces at work. If paid vacations continue to become increasingly common, growing numbers of ordinary citizens may find a Florida vacation within their means. By contrast, it was the very wealthy who consti tuted the backbone of the tourist business in the early years of the century. The spread of private pension plans, in the future as in the past, should enable more people to move to Florida when they retire. Moreover, the retirees who do move there seem to be better off financially than they used to be, according to observers on the scene. The caricature of the retiree as a pauper, ordering a cup of hot water to go with his ketchup, is no longer applicable, if it ever was. Then, of course, there is the expansion at Cape Canav eral. The space-launching site is to be enlarged by about four times its present size, and the Federal Government I960 1961 196! • 5 • 1962 plans to spend many millions of dollars for the construc tion of new facilities. This expansion may well stimulate further growth of manufacturing connected with missile development. All these things are true, a pessimist might reply, but they may not prove to be unmixed blessings. Some recent developments indicate that Florida may become increas ingly sensitive to the economic tides running in the rest of the country. For example, the period of greatest in crease in manufacturing employment occurred in 195860, rather than 1954-57, as was the case with the other four indicators. The growth of population has attracted manufacturing activity to the state to supply local markets, particularly for light metal manufactures and building materials. Although these firms supply mainly local needs, some have now grown to the extent that they are distribut ing their products nationally. If this continues, manufac turing may feel more and more the effect of national recessions. It is true, too, that Federal Government activity is now providing a considerable stimulus to Florida’s economy. But sometimes heavy reliance on Government programs can bring instability if these programs are subject to sudden modifications. Our statistical data do not provide us with a passkey to the future— they merely indicate various areas that will bear watching. The only thing we can say with any cer tainty is that Florida’s future will be interesting. L a w r e n c e F. M a n s f i e l d This is one of a series in which economic developments in each of the Sixth District states are discussed. Develop ments in Tennessee’s economy were analyzed in the November 1961 R e v i e w , and a discussion of Georgia’s economy is scheduled for a forthcoming issue. Department Store Sales and Inventories* Place Percent Change Sales Inventories Jan. 1962 from Jan. 31,1962 from Jan. Dec. Dec. 31, Jan. 31, 1961 1961 1961 1961 —0 ALABAMA ................................... . —62 +9 +3 Birmingham.............................. . — 61 + 15 +5 +0 Mobile........................................ . —63 +4 Montgomery.............................. . — 63 +5 FLORIDA........................................ . — 51 +5 +7 + 11 Daytona Beach ......................... . — 53 +5 Jacksonville.............................. . — 61 —i +3 +2 Miami A r e a .............................. . —49 +9 M ia m i................................... . —48 +6 O r la n d o ................................... . — 51 + 11 + 21 —2 St. Petersburg-Tampa Area . . . — 51 + 13 GEORGIA........................................ +14 60 +0 + 10 Atlanta**................................... . — 59 +4 + 13 + 17 A u g u s ta ................................... . — 62 +9 n.a. Columbus................................... n.a. n.a. —2 M acon........................................ . —64 +5 +1 Rome** ................................... . — 65 + 1 Savannah ................................... . —60 +5 LOUISIAN A................................... . — 55 —5 +9 +3 + 14 — 19 Baton Rouge .............................. . — 58 + 18 —1 New O rleans.............................. . — 55 —0 + 14 M IS S IS S IP P I.............................. . — 59 +5 + 18 Jackson ................................... . —60 + 13 +4 M eridian................................... n.a. n.a. n.a. TENNESSEE ................................... . —63 —3 +7 +7 Bristol-KinasportJohnson C i t y * * .................... . — 69 —7 +2 +7 Bristol (Tenn. & Va.)** . . . — 69 +3 Chattanooga .............................. . — 61 + 15 Knoxville................................... . — 63 +3 D I S T R I C T ......................................... — 57 +4 +8 +6 *Reporting stores account for over 90 percent of total District department store sales. **In order to permit publication iof figures for this city, a special sample has been constructed that is not confined exclusively to department stores. Figures for non department stores, however, are not used in computing the District percent changes. n.a. Not Available. Personal Income in Sixth District States (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates, in Millions of Dollars) D e c .1 1961 A la b a m a F lo r id a . G e o r g ia . L o u is ia n a M is s is s ip p i Tennessee T o ta l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 ,1 1 0 1 0 ,6 8 3 6 ,7 9 6 5 ,5 4 4 2 ,7 5 9 5 ,8 1 4 3 6 ,7 0 6 O c t .2 1961 N o v .2 1961 5 ,1 9 1 1 0 ,7 4 6 6 ,8 6 3 5 ,5 3 2 2 ,8 0 9 5 ,8 8 7 3 7 ,0 2 8 D ec. 1960 4,776 5 ,1 2 2 1 0 ,6 0 8 6 ,7 6 6 5 ,5 3 9 2 ,8 4 4 5 ,7 6 9 3 6 ,6 4 8 1 0 ,1 2 1 6 ,3 8 2 5 ,2 5 0 2 ,5 3 3 5 ,5 2 7 3 4 ,5 8 9 Preliminary. 2Revised. Debits to Individual Demand Deposit Accounts (In Thousands of Dollars) ALABAMA Anniston . . . . Birmingham . . . Dothan . . . . Gadsden . . . . Huntsville* . . . Mobile.................... Montgomery . . . Selma* . . . . Tuscaloosa* . . . Total Reporting Cities Other Citiesf . • . FLORIDA Daytona Beach* Fort Lauderdale* . Gainesville* . . . Jacksonville . . . Key West* . . . Lakeland* . . . Greater Miami* Orlando . . . . Pensacola . . . St. Petersburg . . Tallahassee* . . . Tam pa.................... W. Palm-Palm Bch.* Total Reporting Cities Other Citiesf . . . GEORGIA Albany . . . . Athens* . . . . Atlanta . . . . Augusta . . . . Brunswick . . . Columbus . . . . Elberton . . . . Gainesville* . . . Griffin* . . . . LaGrange* . . . Percent Change Jan. 1962 from Jan. Dec. 1961 1961 Jan. 1962 Dec. 1961 Jan. 1961 44,992 959,377 40,566 39,173 84,617 313,723 186,415 27,980 63,065 1,759,908 844,904 45,031 863,575 40,401 37,185 83,368 301,911 176,957 29,393 60,391 1,638,212 843,888r 40,046 869,790 35,308 35,688 70,674 302,055 172,606 26,027 56,164 1,608,358 773,323r —0 + 11 +0 +5 + 1 +4 +5 —5 +4 +7 +0 + 12 + 10 + 15 + 10 + 20 +4 +8 +8 + 12 +9 +9 71,411 268,738 45,120 1,041,540 22,967 100,554 1,141,552 1,722,137 317,155 88,369 289,022 78,101 518,018 200,677 4,763,809 2,256,905 56,077 232,477 46,524 858,214 18,159 84,464 1,008,127 1,460,295 276,126 88,692 238,456 65,599 478,845 152,151 4,056,079 l,777,950r 64,909 239,492 48,017 913,042 19,350 98,262 1,067,114 1,577,108 288,211 89,687 255,085 n.a. 481,281 157,400 4,231,844 l,897,855r + 27 + 16 —3 + 21 +26 + 19 + 13 + 18 + 15 —0 + 21 + 19 +8 +32 + 17 + 27 + 10 + 12 —6 + 14 + 19 +2 +7 +9 + 10 —1 + 13 n.a. +8 + 27 + 13 + 19 64,027 50,117 2,510,286 131,110 32,140 132,176 8,424 50,035 21,850 19,135 145,329 36,839 24,198 51,794 189,626 39,877 3,506,963 1,092,436 62,572 45,156 2,497,342 122,398 31,003 120,642 10,064 47,616 22,427 19,229 144,437 38,808 27,051 51,609 185,824 35,337 3,461,515 l,041,103r 54,307 42,243 2,170,801 117,649 26,456 113,365 9,154 48,554 20,918 20,360 126,594 33,076 17,852 53,775 170,881 35,940 3,061,925 l,024,710r +2 + 11 + 1 +7 +4 + 10 — 16 +5 —3 —0 +1 —5 — 11 + 0 +2 + 13 +1 +5 + 18 + 19 + 16 + 11 + 21 + 17 —8 +3 +4 —6 + 15 + 11 + 36 —4 + 11 + 11 + 15 +7 74,898 267,925 69,380 83,709 1,474,329 1,970,241 674,563r 71,191 283,296 68 220 87,044 1,403,891 1,913,642 631,770r + 13 +14 +9 + 19 —1 + 19 +8 + 11 + 15 +4 + 6 + 19 56,726 38,813 347,973 28.578 44,491 24,488 23,247 564,316 311,121r 52,466 38,776 322 001 28,702 45,350 23,067 21,213 531,575 280,443r +3 +4 +5 —3 + 12 —1 +4 +5 —0 + 10 +5 +14 + 11 + 11 53,741 355,821 49,654 90,440 281,073 837,428 1,668,157 648,003r 18 655,148r 13,358,520 5,296,628r 11,404,999 46,984 400,303 42,077 85,071 269,989 762,726 1,607,150 623,163r 18,185,758r 12,954,494 5,231,264r 11,027,501 + 21 —7 +5 —2 +2 +5 +0 +9 +8 + 12 +7 + 16 +7 + 10 +12 +2 + 12 +9 +4 + 12 + 11 + 13 + 10 286,600,000r 257,700,OOOr +3 + 14 Marietta* . . . Newnan . . . . Rome* . . . . Savannah . . . . Valdosta . . . . Total Reporting Cities Other Citiesf . . . LOUISIANA Alexandria* . . . 84,700 Baton Rouge . . . 306,481 75,962 Lafayette* . . . 99,984 Lake Charles . . New Orleans . . . 1,458,145 2,025,272 Total Reporting Cities Other Citiesf . . . 753,527 MISSISSIPPI Biloxi-Gulfport* 58,598 Hattiesburg . . . 40,555 Jackson . . . . 366,016 Laurel* . . . . 27,586 Meridian . . . . 49,720 Natchez* . . . . 24,192 Vicksburg . . . . 24,281 Total Reporting Cities 590,948 Other Citiesf . . . 310,356 TENNESSEE 54,482 Bristol* . . . . Chattanooga . . . 430,255 Johnson City* . . 46,312 Kingsport* . . . 94,933 Knoxville . . . . 275,740 850,821 Nashville . . . . Total Reporting Cities 1,752 543 Other Citiesf . . . 650,143 20,307,714 SIXTH DISTRICT Reporting Cities 14,399,443 Other Citiesf . . 5,908,271 Total, 32 Cities . . 12,159,093 UNITED STATES 344 Cities . . . 294,600,000 + 12 + 12 +5 + 14 — a> *Not included in total for 32 cities that are part of the national debit series maintained by the Board of Governors. fEstim ated. r Revised. n.a. Not Available. • 6 • Sixth District Indexes Seasonally Adjusted (1947-49 = 100) I9 6 0 SIXTH DISTRICT DEC. | I 1961 1962 FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 142 121 187 134 190 118 73 163 86 84 191 150 213 78 401 141 121 187 134 189 118 73 164 87 84 190 150 212 79 383 141 121 186 134 186 118 73 165 86 83 183 149 214 79 368 141 121 190 133 186 118 74 166 87 84 187 149 220 82 376 142 122 191 133 185 117 74 167 91 84 188 150 225 85 379 142 123 193 133 184 118 74 167 92 85 191 150 232 88 391 142 124 198 133 181 117 74 168 93 85 193 150 236 89 391 142 124 196 133 184 117 74 168 94 85 184 150 232 89 396 143 123 194 133 183 116 74 165 92 85 190 151 232 88 398 143 124 193 132 187 117 75 164 94 85 204 151 235 92 377 143 124 195 133 190 117 75 165 92 85 202 151 239 91 386 143 124 197 133 190 119 75 164 93 85 202 150 239r 95 393 143 124 198 132 189 119 73 163 89 84 210 151 222 88 n.a. 239 309 291 324 134 97 191 177 229r 127 189 351 288r 162 176 125 237 315 330 303 145 123 191 181 221 130 192 355 280r 156 168 116 241 324 343 309 136 104 205 178 221 134 189 353 295r 155 167 122 244 345 362 330 126 99 189 183 229 135 191 354 271r 146 164 111 253 360 388 337 136 113 192 175 225 129 191 357 292r 165 183 127 252 372 412 340 141 117 191 185 227 130 189 355 291r 154 175 119 243 384 393 377 125 97 175 194 227 135 193 353 279r 162 179 129 243 394 402 387 150 139 187 179 239 132 190 359 288r 166 189 122 239 402 406 400 131 104 197 192 239 143 194 361 284r 152 164 126 251 375 431 329 173 162 194 188 242 139 199 363 291 r 161 170 119 250r 351 374 333 169 147 202 189 244 138 197 365 307r 161 170 117 267 322 368 285 136 98 203 196 244 143 200 372 296r 162 172 123 268 n.a. n.a. 185 243p 135p 200 371 322 159 168 124 125 101 175 158 103 169 300 115 247 123 101 175 156 106 170 299 126 238 123 101 177 166 112 167 303 133 249r 123 102 183 173 124 169 298 115 232r 124 102 185 163 101 163 304 126 266r 125 103 191 168 112 162 301 118 254r 125 104 196 177 111 163 295 117 241 r 125 105 195 171 117 163 302 113 256r 125 104 197 175 114 167 303 118 254r 125 104 204 166 108 170 304 163 264r 126 104 209 163 120 168 309 155 273r 125 104 197r 172 111 172 314 131 254r 125 103 182 157 109p 171 314 n.a. 270 200 206 368 265r 154 247 550 266 416r 200 207 374 264 155 252 556 264 400r 200 209 373 287 161 247 556 197 419r 200 209 392 269 156 248 550 227 385r 202 211 406 263 151 250 559 244 431 r 203 213 414 277 155 247 555 257 441r 203 215 443 290 162 253 553 211 407r 204 214 432 274 148 250 561 292 438r 204 214 437 284 167 254 567 246 432r 204 215 441 280 171 260 567 200 443r 205 216 428 288 155 260 568 215 457r 205 216 427r 296 170 263 570 226 428r 205 215 408 283 174 262 571 476 134 117 199 157 124 169 285 144 263 134 116 200 155 131 173 292 152 253r 133 116 203 166 138 172 292 171 265r 134 117 205 155 132 172 290 149 243r 134 118 215 166 133 175 292 144 265r 134 118 217 166 133 173 291 147 268r 134 119 223 175 136 176 289 127 265r 134 119 218 159 136 171 292 193 267r 135 119 215 167 139 175 289 151 266r 136 120 223 165 133 183 296 184 278r 136 120 227 168 128 180 300 156 280r 136 119 223r 175 140 183 300 158 277r 137 120 210 164 135p 183 303 n.a. 296 129 92 177 151 163 165 319 93 210 129 91 173 151 152 167 322 103 209r 128 92 177 155 147 163 314 104 237r 128 91 180 149 158 169 331 98 216r 129 91 179 149 165 166 324 105 234r 128 90 179 157 159 167 326 112 252r 127 90 178 157 164 172 327 104 223r 127 90 177 152 159 169 331 112 236r 127 89 175 148 185 171 337 109 234r 127 90 179 144 177 174 335 130 230r 127 90 181 147 186 173 331 137 235r 127 91 182r 158 196 174 346 118 238r 128 90 177 151 151 172 350 n.a. 230 137 130 244 155r 95 204 442 86 238 136 129 237 146 100 205 446 99 233r 137 130 241 154 108 207 442 116 255r 136 132 244 157 95 208 449 90 234r 137 134 243 153 85 210 455 99 240r 136 135 256 165 91 208 451 99 253r 137 136 259 169 112 207 446 100 243r 137 136 260 156 116 205 458 102 255r 138 136 263 160 119 208 460 92 253r 138 137 265 155 105 213 464 174 256r 138 138 264 165 110 215 477 181 279r 137 139 268r 171 103 221 502 121 262r 139 137 235 157 109 221 491 264 124 123 215 147 85 170 315 96 249r 124 123 216 154 95 176 319 99 245r 124 123 216 151 98 176 310 99 257r 124 123 222 147 100 175 311 101 236r 125 124 224 141 91 174 315 96 261r 126 125 230 152 84 175 312 101 260r 126 125 227 157 90 179 313 100 260r 126 124 234 146 89 176 320 109 258r 126 125 231 157 102 179 323 93 253r 126 125 228 150 97 181 325 127 251r 126 125 235 154 101 180 326 132 268r 125 126 239 158 96 183 337 107 253r 125 126 225 152 88p 185 327 n.a. 268 JAN. Nonfarm Employm ent.............................. 141 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 122 A p p a rel.............................................189 C h e m ic a ls........................................134 Fabricated Metals..............................191 F o o d ..................................................119 Lbr., Wood Prod., Fur. & Fix. . . 75 P aper..................................................164 Primary M e t a l s .............................. 89 T e x tile s ............................................. 85 Transportation Equipment . . . . 190 Nonmanufacturing Employment . . . 149 Manufacturing Payrolls..............................218 Cotton Consumption**.............................. 79 Electric Power Production**.................... 390 Petrol. Prod, in Coastal Louisiana & Mississippi**.................... 250 Construction C o n tr a c ts* ......................... 288 Residential............................................. 304 All O t h e r ............................................. 276 Farm Cash R eceipts...................................132 Crops....................................................... 94 Livestock .............................................199 Department Store S a le s * /* * .................... 187 Department Store Stocks*......................... 237 Furniture Store S a l e s * / * * ....................134 Member Bank D e p o s its * .........................189 Member Bank L o a n s * .............................. 359 Bank D e b its* ............................................. 282 Turnover of Demand Deposits* . . . . 151 In Leading C itie s ...................................163 Outside Leading C it ie s .........................119 ALABAMA Nonfarm E m ploym ent.........................124 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 102 Manufacturing Payrolls.........................175 Department Store S a les* * ....................166 Furniture Store S a l e s .........................113 Member Bank D ep osits.........................167 Member Bank L oans.............................. 299 Farm Cash R eceip ts..............................121 Bank Debits ........................................ 243 FLORIDA Nonfarm E m ploym ent......................... 201 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 208 Manufacturing Payrolls......................... 384 Department Store S a le s* * .................... 276 Furniture Store S a l e s .........................158 Member Bank D ep osits......................... 250 Member Bank L oans.............................. 560 Farm Cash R eceip ts.............................. 232 Bank Debits ........................................413 GEORGIA Nonfarm Em ploym ent.........................134 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 119 Manufacturing Payrolls......................... 205 Department Store S a les* * ....................163 Furniture Store S a l e s ......................... 130 Member Bank D eposits.........................170 Member Bank L oans.............................. 289 Farm Cash R eceip ts..............................148 Bank Debits ........................................ 256 LOUISIANA Nonfarm Em ploym ent.........................128 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 93 Manufacturing Payrolls.........................175 Department Store Sales*/** . . . . 155 Furniture Store S a le s * .........................166 .................... 166 Member Bank Deposits* Member Bank L o a n s * .........................331 Farm Cash R eceip ts..............................113 Bank D e b its * ........................................ 234 MISSISSIPPI Nonfarm Em ploym ent.........................134 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 131 Manufacturing Payrolls......................... 240 Department Store Sales*/** . . . . 165 Furniture Store S a le s * ......................... 102 Member Bank Deposits* .................... 209 Member Bank L o a n s * ......................... 460 Farm Cash R eceip ts.............................. 136 Bank D e b its * ........................................ 254 TENNESSEE Nonfarm E m ploym ent.........................124 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 123 Manufacturing Payrolls.........................217 Department Store Sales*/** . . . . 157 Furniture Store S a le s * ......................... 94 Member Bank Deposits* ....................170 Member Bank L o a n s * ......................... 328 Farm Cash R eceip ts.............................. 86 Bank D e b its * ........................................ 236 I | JAN. n .a. n .a. n .a. n .a . n .a. n.a. *For Sixth District area only. Other totals for entire six states, n.a. Not Available. p Preliminary. r Revised. **Daily average basis. Sources: Nonfarm and mfg. emp. and payrolls, state depts. of labor; cotton consumption, U.S. Bureau of Census, construction contracts, F. W. Dodge Corp.; petrol, prod., U.S. Bureau of Mines; elec. power prod., Fed. Power Comm. Other indexes based on data collected by this Bank. All indexes calculated by this Bank. • 7 • D I S T R I C T B U S I N E S S C O N D I T I O N S Nonfarm Employment T h e region shared to some extent in the Ja n u ary lull noted in k ey indicators for the nation. Manufacturing and construction employment and the average work week in manufacturing declined. Loans at member banks varied little from December’s advanced levels, and nonfarm employment in December-January showed practically no change. Some measures of produc tion, however, rose in January, and in the agricultural sector of the economy, farm market prices, production, and income continued to increase. All com parisons are on a seasonally adjusted basis. \* M fg . P a y r o lls Mfg. Employment A decline occurred in manufacturing em ploym ent in Ja n u a ry , but this w as more than offset by a rise in nonmanufacturing. Total nonfarm Electric Power Production employment, as a result, rose slightly, regaining the loss of the preceding month. Employment thus gives a picture of stability over the past several months. The January rise reflected gains in Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi; employment in Florida was virtually unchanged, while that in Alabama and Tennessee edged further downward. The average work week in manufacturing dropped for the second month, reflecting bad weather to a considerable degree. Estimates show that a slight decline occurred in personal income in December. \S \S )S C o n s tru c tio n C o n tra c ts 3 - mo. moving avg. Construction employment edged dow nw ard again in Ja n u a ry , re flecting e a rlie r declines in construction contracts. Cotton consumption Cotton Consumption dropped back to about the level of last summer, following a substantial rise in the final quarter of 1961. Steel production, however, increased in January and early February, and the output of crude oil in coastal Louisiana and Missis sippi continued in record volume during January. O )S Judging from a va ilab le m easures, consumer spending showed some slackening during Ja n u a ry . Department store sales declined in nearly all major District cities, after reaching a record volume in December. Prelimi nary figures for February, however, show that sales are rebounding sharply. Furniture store sales also fell during January, but sales at appliance stores remained virtually unchanged. Consumer instalment credit outstanding at Dis trict commercial banks was unchanged during January. Direct loans to individ uals to purchase autos picked up somewhat, but loans for the purchase of other consumer goods declined during the month. Bank Debits Dept. Store Stocks The farm economic scene brightened recently. The index of prices re ceived by District farmers in January increased, as most crop and livestock prices advanced. A rise in prices for eggs, broilers, beef, hogs, and oranges more than offset slight declines for milk, cotton, and tobacco. Total livestock output held near recent levels, with increases in egg and broiler output counter balancing a drop in milk production. Meanwhile, harvests in citrus, potato, and vegetable areas continued at a rapid pace. Farmers ended 1961 with their total cash receipts from farm marketings slightly larger than those a year earlier, although cash receipts declined in December. Recent trends in prices and production suggest that receipts have been sustained. )S )S Total member bank loans, also season ally adjusted, changed little in Ja n u a ry , as a rise in loans a t banks outside leading cities about offset a decline in those at banks in leading cities. Mississippi and Ten Borrowings from / F. R. Bank A Excess Reserves \ 4.< II i i I I 1959 Il i il i II I960 il I I nessee were the only states to show loan declines, and in no state did loans drop below end-of-November levels. During the first three weeks of February, however, loans at banks in leading cities rose less than is normal for this period. Member bank deposits declined slightly more than seasonally in January after a sharp December increase, despite a pronounced rise in time deposits. In February, excess reserves declined somewhat from high January levels, and borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta inched upward.
@FedFRASER