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Atlanta, Georgia
July
•
Seasonal Demands for Money and Bank Credit
1963
%
%
Also in this issue:
<Fp^
The most a
on criticism of our American currency system
is its allegi
elasticity or irresponsiveness to trade demands,
This inela,
ty is sometimes considered with particular refrence to
, regularly recurring seasonal fluctuations in the
Jjjgjpiand fo r
oney and loanable capital.— E d w in W . K em P U B L IC A T IO N S
%
HE
D I S T R I C T 'S
D IS T R IC T
S T A T IS T IC S
D IS T R IC T
N A llO N A L
M ONETARY
co^
E C O N O M IC
C H A R A C T E R IS T IC S
S IX T H
rk
OF
S S IO N , V o lu m e 2 2 ( 1 9 1 1 ) .
B U S IN E S S
C O N D IT IO N S
\
---------------------------------------------
A & w h a t P ro fe sso r K em m erer o f C o rn ell U n iv e r sity , o n e o f th e lea d in g
e o ^ n m i c sch o la rs o f h a lf a cen tu ry ag o , w o u ld c h o o se to d a y as “the
m oS r :o m m o n criticism o f o u r A m e ric a n cu rren cy sy stem ” or, in d eed ,
o f o u r w h o le m o n eta ry an d cred it sy stem , w e d o n o t k n o w . It seem s
u n lik ely , h o w e v e r , th at h e w o u ld c h o o se “in ela sticity o r ir re sp o n siv en ess
to trad e d em a n d s . . . w ith p articu lar referen ce to regu larly recurring
se a so n a l flu ctu a tio n s in th e d em a n d fo r m o n e y an d c a p ita l.”
P r o fe sso r K em m erer, h o w e v e r , c o u ld p r o d u ce a m p le p r o o f to su p p ort
h is sta tem en t co n ce r n in g c o n d itio n s as th ey ex iste d at th e b eg in n in g o f
th is cen tu ry. H e h a d d o c u m e n te d th e recurring se a so n a l p attern s in th e
d em a n d s fo r cu rren cy an d cred it b y d a ta p resen ted in 9 6 ela b o ra te ta b les
an d 4 8 ch arts la b o r io u sly c o m p u te d an d ta b u la ted b y h a n d . T h e age o f
c o m p u ters an d a u to m a tic ca lcu la tin g m a c h in e s, o f c o u r se, h a d n o t y et
c o m e in to e x isten ce . H e fo u n d , fo r e x a m p le , th at b a n k in g a ctiv ity in N e w
O rlea n s, th e city c h o se n as rep resen ta tiv e o f th e S o u th , fo llo w e d a reg
u lar se a so n a l p attern . E a rly in th e y ear, c a sh flo w e d in to N e w O rlean s
b a n k s fr o m th e rural areas. “B eg in n in g w ith th e m id d le o f Jan u ary and
e x te n d in g u n til th e fo rep a rt o f M a y ,” h e rep o rted , “th e rela tiv e d em a n d
fo r m o n e y e d ca p ita l in crea ses a lm o st ste a d ily .” In th e su m m er, h e c o n
tin u ed , reserv es in crea sed , “o b v io u sly d u e la rg ely to th e co m p a ra tiv e
in a ctiv ity o f th e h o t m o n th s in th e S o u th .” In th e fa ll, h e o b se r v e d “ an
in crea se in th e rela tiv e d em a n d fo r lo a n a b le ca p ita l. . . . D u rin g this
p erio d , th e co tto n , sugar, an d rice cro p s are m o v e d .” B e g in n in g w ith
e a rly N o v e m b e r , th ere w a s a p e r io d o f rea d ju stm en t an d liq u id a tio n .
T h e se se a so n a l sw in g s w ere e x trem ely sharp. O n an a v era g e, during
th e yea rs 1 8 9 9 - 1 9 0 8 , lo a n s ro se at th e N e w O rlea n s b a n k s fro m a lo w
p o in t in M a rch to a le v e l o v e r five tim es as great in N o v e m b e r . S in ce
len d in g in v o lv e d c a sh w ith d ra w a ls, th e b a n k s’ reserv es o f “ sp e cie and
le g a l te n d er” m o v e d in th e o p p o site d irectio n to lo a n s. S u ch a p r o cess
resu lted in p erio d s o f “cred it strin g en cy ,” n o t o n ly in N e w O rlea n s b u t
th ro u g h o u t th e en tire n a tio n . M o re o v e r , P r o fesso r K em m erer b e lie v e d
th ere w a s a greater te n d e n c y fo r b u sin e sse s to fa il and fo r “p a n ic s” to o c
cur d u ring th e se a so n n o rm a lly ch a ra cterized b y a strin gen t m o n e y m arket.
To Furnish a n Elastic C urrency
R e lie v in g th ese se a so n a l p ressu res w a s v ery m u ch in th e m in d s o f th e
Seasonal Patterns in the Demand for Bank Credit
Percent of Trend
Percent of Trend
Private demands for co m m ercia l b a n k c re d it in the U. S. e x
pand and contract from month to month in a y e a rly recurring
pattern.
fram ers o f th e F e d e r a l R e se r v e A c t. T h e P r e a m b le to th e
A c t, a p p ro v e d o n D e c e m b e r 2 2 , 1 9 1 3 , sta tes that, am o n g
o th e r p u r p o se s, th is w a s “ an A c t . . . to fu rn ish an ela stic
cu rren cy [a n d ] to afford m ea n s o f r e d isc o u n tin g c o m
m e r c ia l p a p er. . . .” F e d e r a l R e se r v e n o te s, th ey b e lie v e d ,
w o u ld e x p a n d an d co n tr a ct as n e e d e d a n d , th u s, p ro v id e
fo r an “ e la stic c u rren cy ” th a t w o u ld r esp o n d to se a so n a l
an d c y c lic a l n e e d s. M o r e o v e r , b y afford in g a “m e a n s o f
red isc o u n tin g c o m m e r c ia l p a p e r ,” th e y a lso h o p e d re
serv es w o u ld b e su p p lie d to th e b a n k in g sy stem to m e e t
se a so n a l, as w e ll as c y c lic a l, n e e d s fo r lo a n s.
E sta b lish in g th e F e d e r a l R e se r v e b y n o m e a n s elim i
n a ted se a so n a l p a ttern s in th e d e m a n d fo r m o n e y and
cred it, a lth o u g h th e a m p litu d e o f th e sw in g s fro m e a se to
tig h tn ess m a y b e lo w e r n o w th an it w a s th en . D u rin g th e
latter m o n th s o f th e y ea r, th e p u b lic w a n ts m o re cu rren cy
an d c o in , ju st as it d id o v e r h a lf a c e n tu ry a g o . S im p ly
b e c a u se it is “th at tim e o f th e y e a r ,” w e c a n u su a lly e x p e c t
to ta l U . S. c o m m e r c ia l b a n k cred it, c o n sistin g o f lo a n s an d
in v estm en ts, to d e c lin e d u rin g th e first th ree m o n th s o f th e
year, th en rise tem p o ra rily th ro u g h J u ly , d ip slig h tly in
A u g u st, an d th en rise d u rin g th e rest o f th e y ea r to rea ch
a p ea k in D e c e m b e r . A t th e N e w O rlea n s b a n k s, lo a n s
and d e p o sits co n tin u e to e x p a n d an d c o n tra ct in a b o u t th e
sa m e m o n th s as th e y d id six ty y ea rs a g o , a lth o u g h th e
sw in g s are m u ch m o r e m o d e r a te n o w .
Commercial bank holdings of U. S. G o v e rn m e n t se cu rities
change in a seasonal pattern, responding p artly to the
pattern of Treasury financing.
DETECTING SEASONAL PATTERNS
Most econom ic time series, i.e ., d a ta that m easure activity or
m agnitudes over successive periods—d ay s, w eeks, months, or
other time sp ans—a re g e n e rally considered to be influenced by
four types of forces: secu lar trend (long-term growth or decline);
cyclical movement (swings from prosperity through recession
an d recovery an d b ack to prosperity); seasonal variation (the
more-or-less reg ular movement that occurs y e a r after y e a r in
the sam e seasons); a n d irre g u lar variation .
The seasonal patterns of to ta l co m m ercia l b a n k c re d it and
d e m a n d d e p o s its of m e m b e r b a n k s are quite sim ilar, since
credit dem ands are larg ely satisfied by demand deposits.
Percent of Trend
Percent of Trend
The combined seasonal patterns of demand and time de
posits produce a seasonal pattern in re q u ir e d r e s e r v e s that
declines during the first quarter of the y e a r and rises alm ost
stead ily during the rem aining months.
The an alyst must sort out these influences a s best he ca n , if
he is to have a n y idea at a ll of the specific forces responsible
for the ch ang es between periods. In our present problem , we
w ant to know the monthly levels of loans, deposits, an d other
financial d a ta we could usually expect if seasonal influences
w ere the sole fo rce inducing chan ges. To do this, w e must
somehow elim inate the effect of se cu lar, cy clica l, an d irregular
forces.
Statisticians remove the influence of the non-seasonal forces
when they compute so-called season al adjustm ent factors that
show the usual p ercen tage relationship of each month to the
av e ra g e month or the g e n e ral trend. Assum ing the immediate
future will be much like the recent past, w e can use those se a
sonal adjustment factors to estimate the level that would occur
in an y month if seasonal influences w ere the sole force induc
ing changes.
Such season al factors a re plotted in the accom p an yin g charts
to show the seaso n al patterns of outstanding loans, deposits,
and related items. They show the levels for each month, assum
ing the monthly levels a re not influenced b y secular, cyclical,
or irregular fo rces, in com parison with the a v e ra g e month.
How ever, these factors, which have been computed from d ata
for recent years com piled by the staff of the Board of G o v e r
nors, illustrate only the chief, but by no means a ll, season al
forces that affect the credit-generating activities of the banking
system.
•2 •
T o d a y , lo c a l cred it m ark ets are m o re c lo s e ly a llied w ith
e a c h oth er and w ith th e n a tio n a l m o n e y m ark ets th an w as
true a h a lf cen tu ry ago. T h e r efo r e , a d e v e lo p in g cred it
strin gen cy in o n e part o f th e co u n try is lik ely to b e ab
ru p tly h a lted if th ere are a m p le fu n d s a v a ila b le in o th er
a reas. N e v e r th e le ss, to d a y , as in th e p ast, th ere c o u ld b e
a ltern ate se a so n a l p erio d s o f n a tio n a l cred it strin g en cy and
e a se if th e su p p ly o f cred it a v a ila b le fro m th e n a tio n ’s
b a n k in g sy stem , c o n sid ered as a u n it, d id n o t ex p a n d in
a cco rd a n ce w ith se a so n a l p ea k s in d em a n d . S e a so n a l p e
rio d s o f excessive cred it strin g en cy o c c u r n o lo n g e r b e
c a u se F e d e r a l R e se r v e o p e r a tio n s ta k e in to a c co u n t th e
se a so n a l p attern o f cred it d em a n d s.
To H e lp M e e t S e a s o n a l N e e d s
Furnishing an Elastic Currency
Billions of Dollars
Billions of Dollars
The nation's m o n e y su p p ly , i.e., p rivate demand deposits
and currency in circulation, expands and contracts in re
sponse to changes in the seasonal needs of the economy
in about the same months each ye a r.
for R eserves
W h en th e n a tio n ’s co m m er c ia l b a n k s m ee t in crea sed se a
so n a l d em a n d s fo r cred it, th eir d e p o sit lia b ilities in crea se.
D e p o sits, fo r th e m o s t part, sa tisfy th e n e e d s o f b o rrow ers
fo r a m ed iu m o f e x ch a n g e. T h u s, d e p o sit ch a n g es ro u g h ly
p a rallel c h a n g es in th e to ta l lo a n s and in v e stm e n ts or to tal
c o m m e r c ia l b a n k cred it o f th e n a tio n ’s b a n k s. C o n se
q u en tly , d e p o sits are u su a lly at th eir se a so n a l lo w du rin g
th e first th ree m o n th s o f th e y ea r an d reach th eir p ea k in
D e c e m b e r . W h en d ep o sits in cr e a se , b a n k s’ req u ired re
serv es also in crea se. T h erefo re , h ig h se a so n a l d em a n d s for
cred it c a n o n ly b e satisfied if th e b a n k s ca n find th e a d d i
tio n a l reserv es n e e d e d to su p p o rt a d e p o sit e x p a n sio n .
A t a b o u t th e sa m e tim e th e b a n k in g sy stem n e e d s m ore
reserv es to in crea se its le n d in g and in v estin g , h o w e v er ,
m a n y o f th e c o m m ercia l b a n k s’ c u sto m ers are w ith
d ra w in g in crea sin g am ou n ts o f cu rren cy and c o in . B e
g in n in g in ea rly fa ll, cu rren cy in c ircu la tio n in crea ses
ste a d ily and rea ch es a p e a k in D e c e m b e r th at is a b o u t 3
p e rcen t greater th an th e m o n th ly avera g e fo r th e year.
S in ce b an k s m u st o b ta in th is cu rren cy and c o in fro m the
F e d era l R e se r v e B a n k s, in crea sed cu rren cy in circ u la tio n ,
e x c e p t that retain ed in th e b a n k s’ o w n v a u lts, d ep le te s their
reserves. T h u s, a p erio d o f se a so n a l cred it strin g en cy can
b e a v o id ed o n ly if a d d itio n a l reserv es are su p p lied fro m
o u tsid e th e c o m m ercia l b a n k in g sy stem . B y su p p ly in g re
se rv es to th e b a n k in g sy stem in a c co rd a n ce w ith se a so n a l
n e e d s, th e F e d era l R e se r v e S y stem d isc o u r a g e s th ese alter
n a tin g p erio d s o f strin gen cy and ea se . In fa ct, th e b a n k in g
sy ste m ’s se a so n a l n e e d s fo r cred it are an in tegral part o f
F ed era l R e se r v e p o lic y d e c isio n s and th eir e x e c u tio n .
T h e p o lic y record s o f th e F e d e r a l R e se r v e S ystem are
rep lete w ith illu stration s o f th e c o n sid era tio n giv en to se a
so n a l in flu en ces. It is th e a b se n c e o f regu larly recurring
m o n th s o f cred it strin g en cy and e a se y ea r after y ear, h o w
ev er, th at p ro v id es th e clea r e st e v id e n c e th at th e F e d e ra l
R e se r v e S y stem h a s p erfo rm ed its a ssig n ed fu n c tio n “ to
fu rn ish an ela stic cu rren cy ,” e v e n th o u g h th e m a n n er in
w h ich this fu n ctio n is p erfo rm ed m a y n o t b e e x a c tly w h a t
th e authors o f th e F ed era l R e se r v e A c t h a d in m in d .
T h e au th ors o f th e A c t h a d e x p e c te d th at b a n k s w o u ld
sa tisfy th eir n e e d s fo r reserv es d u rin g sea so n a l p e a k s b y
b o rro w in g from the F ed era l R e se r v e B a n k s b y d isc o u n tin g
th e n o te s o f th eir cu sto m er s. R e o u ir e d reserv es w o u ld d e
c lin e as lo a n s w ere rep aid , and th e b a n k s c o u ld th en
red u ce th eir b orro w in g . T o d a y , alth o u g h so m e em e rg en
c ie s are m e t b y b o rro w in g fr o m th e F e d e r a l R e se r v e
Percentof Trend
Percent of Trend
Increases in flo a t, credit given by the Federal Reserve
Banks on uncollected checks, help member banks meet sea
sonal reserve pressures in some months.
Changes in c u rre n cy in circu la tio n , how ever, usually increase
reserves in the months when required reserves decline and
absorb reserves when required reserves increase.
Per Cent o f Trend
103 -
Per Cent o f Trend
- 103
102 -
_ 102
S
G o v t. S e c u r it ie s H e ld B y
F e d e ra l R e s e rv e B a n k s
101 -
- 101
100 - .
- 100
99
- 99
98
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98
D
To avoid seasonal periods of alternating credit ease or
tightness, therefore, the Federal Reserve System absorbs or
provides reserves to the member banks by making purchases
or sales of G o v e rn m e n t se cu ritie s.
•
3 •
B a n k s, the O p en M a rk et p u rch a se and sa le o f G o v ern m en t
secu rities is th e m ajo r in stru m en t u se d in ad ju stin g re
serves to sea so n a l n e e d s.
F o r e x a m p le, th e su m m a ry o f p o lic y a ctio n s co n ta in ed
in th e Forty-Ninth Annual Report of the Board of Gov
ernors fo r 1 9 6 2 states: “L a te O c to b e r -D e c e m b e r A c tio n :
In crea sed S ystem h o ld in g s o f U . S. G o v e rn m e n t S ecu rities
b y a b ou t $ 1 .0 b illio n . . . . P u rp o se: to h e lp m e e t sea so n a l
n eed s fo r r e serv es.” In a d d itio n , a se a so n a l in crea se in
“flo a t,” cred it g iv en fo r c h e c k s r e c e iv e d fr o m m em b er
b an k s b efo re th ey h a v e b e e n fin ally p resen ted fo r c o lle c
tio n , p ro v id es so m e o f th e a d d itio n a l reserv es n e e d e d in
p erio d s o f risin g se a so n a l d em a n d s.
H o w O p en M a rk et p o lic y d e c isio n s are m a d e and th e
w ays th ey are e x e c u te d h a v e b e e n d escrib ed in p rev io u s
issu es o f this Review. F o r th e p u rp o se o f this d isc u ssio n ,
it is en o u g h to say that th e F e d e r a l R e se r v e B a n k s u su a lly
m a k e n e t sales o f G o v e r n m e n t secu ritie s d u rin g th e early
m o n th s o f th e year to a b sorb reserv es w h e n se a so n a l d e
m an d s are lo w and m a k e n et p u rch a ses d u rin g th e latter
m o n th s o f th e year to p r o v id e reserv es w h en sea so n a l
d em a n d s are u su a lly h ig h .
A Little M o r e o r a Little Less
S eld o m is a m o n eta ry and cred it p o lic y d e c isio n m a d e
s o le ly b e c a u se o f a n ticip a ted se a so n a l c h a n g es in th e
d em a n d s for m o n e y and cred it. T h e e c o n o m ic en v ir o n
m en t is co n sta n tly ch a n g in g , an d th e a p p rop riate m o n eta ry
p o lic y ch a n g es w ith it; so m e tim e s a stim u la tiv e p o stu re
is a d o p ted an d so m e tim e s a restrictiv e o n e . E v e n w h e n
“ n o c h a n g e ” in p o lic y se em s in o rd er, p r o v isio n m u st b e
m a d e fo r e c o n o m ic grow th .
In p ractice, th erefo re, F e d e r a l R e se r v e p o lic y -m a k e r s
m u st g en era lly d ecid e to su p p ly eith er le ss o r m o re th an
the reserves u su a lly n e e d e d d u rin g th e m o n th s o f sea so n a l
ex p a n sio n or to ab sorb less or m o re th an th e u su a l se a
so n a l co n tra ctio n in req u ired reserv es. In J an u ary th rou gh
M arch , fo r e x a m p le, m em b er b a n k reserv es are u su a lly
in crea sed b y th e return flo w o f cu rren cy fo llo w in g th e
o u tflo w th at tak es p la c e d u rin g th e la st m o n th s o f th e p re
ced in g year. B u t, du rin g th is se a so n , cred it d em a n d s are
u su a lly lo w , d e p o sits d e c lin e , an d reserv e req u irem en ts
fall. W ere F ed era l R e se r v e p o lic y to m a in ta in th e cu rrent
d eg ree o f cred it tig h tn ess or ea se , O p e n M a rk et O p era
tion s w o u ld b e b a se d so le ly o n c o u n tera ctin g th e effect o f
the u su a l se a so n a l ch a n g e s o n m em b er b a n k reserv e p o s i
tio n s. T o a ch iev e this, sa les o f G o v e rn m en t secu ritie s ap
p ro x im a tely eq u a l in a m o u n t to th e in flo w o f reserv es
resu ltin g fro m th e re d u ctio n o f cu rren cy in circu la tio n
w o u ld b e m a d e to p rev en t an e x c e ss iv e e a se fro m d e
v elo p in g .
In ea rly 1 9 6 1 , h o w e v e r , th e S y stem ’s cu rren t p o lic y ,
a ccord in g to th e A nnual Report o f th e B o a r d o f G o v e r
n ors, w a s th at o f “ en co u r a g in g m o n eta ry e x p a n sio n fo r the
p u rp o se o f fo sterin g su sta in a b le g row th in e c o n o m ic a ctiv
ity and e m p lo y m e n t.” C o n se q u e n tly , th e p o lic y -m a k e r s
d e c id e d to absorb o n ly part o f th e se a so n a l in flo w o f re
serve fu n d s in Jan uary b y se llin g secu ritie s an d to b u y
su b stan tial am ou n ts o f G o v e r n m en t secu ritie s later, e v en
d uring th e p erio d w h e n se a so n a l cred it d em a n d s u su a lly
sla ck en . O n th e oth er h a n d , if a restrictiv e p o lic y h a d b een
fo llo w e d du rin g th e ea rly m o n th s o f th at y ea r, th e d e c isio n
m ig h t h a v e b e e n to a b sorb a little m o r e o f th e in flo w o f
reserv es th a n is u su a l at th a t tim e o f year.
S im ilar m o d ifica tio n s in th e u su a l se a s o n a l o p era tio n s
c a n b e m a d e d u rin g th e la tter m o n th s o f th e year w h en
reserve n e e d s are ex p a n d in g . D u r in g N o v e m b e r an d D e
ce m b e r 1 9 5 9 , fo r e x a m p le , w h e n p o lic y c a lle d fo r “re
strain t o n in fla tio n a ry cred it e x p a n sio n ,” o n ly “part o f the
y e a r-en d n e e d s fo r re serv es o f b a n k s” w ere m e t b y O p en
M a rk et p u rch a ses, a cc o rd in g to th e B o a r d ’s report. C o n
seq u en tly , m e m b e r b a n k s c o u ld in c r ea se th eir reserves
o n ly b y b o rro w in g fro m th e F e d e r a l R e se r v e B a n k s.
A t tim es, reserv e req u irem en ts are c h a n g e d d u rin g the
m o n th s w h e n se a so n a l fo r c e s are c a u sin g cred it d em a n d s
to in crea se or d e c r e a se sh arp ly. T h e B o a r d o f G o v ern o rs
c h o se N o v e m b e r an d D e c e m b e r 1 9 6 0 , fo r ex a m p le , as the
tim e to a u th o rize m e m b e r b a n k s to c o u n t all th eir va u lt
ca sh as reserv es an d O c to b e r an d N o v e m b e r 1 9 6 2 as the
tim e to cu t th e ratio o f r eserv es req u ired again st tim e
d e p o sits. T h e u su a l se a s o n a l e x p a n sio n in req u ired re
serv es c o u ld b e m e t in this m a n n er w ith m in im a l d ow n w ard
p ressu re o n sh o rt-term in terest rates and resu ltin g b a la n ce
o f p a y m e n ts d ifficu lties th a n if reserv es h a d b e e n su p p lied
th rou gh O p e n M a rk et p u rch a ses. O n th e o th er h a n d , in
1 9 5 1 w h e n reserv e req u irem en ts ag a in st d e m a n d d e p o sits
w ere in cr e a sed to re d u c e in fla tio n a ry p ressu res, th e Jan u a ry -F eb ru a ry p e rio d w a s c h o se n . P a rt o f th e u su a l in flow
o f reserv es, co n se q u e n tly , w a s a b so rb ed w ith o u t O p en
M a rk et O p era tio n s. B y th e se an d o th er tec h n iq u es, th e
se a so n a l sw in g s in d em a n d s m a y b e u se fu lly e m p lo y e d in
e x e c u tin g p o lic y .
To Each H is O w n
F ed e ra l R e se r v e o p e r a tio n s m u st b e a im ed at th e n e e d s o f
th e en tire b a n k in g sy ste m . A d ju stin g th e a v a ila b ility o f
reserv es to se a so n a l n e e d s, th erefo re, is m a d e in resp o n se
to th e n a tio n ’s to ta l d e m a n d s. B a n k in g in th is cou n try,
h o w ev er , is carried o n b y a b o u t 1 4 ,0 0 0 in d iv id u a l b a n k s,
an d th e se a so n a l d em a n d s fo r cred it an d m o n e y o f e a c h o f
th ese b a n k s m a y o r m a y n o t c o in c id e w ith th o s e o f th e
en tire b a n k in g sy stem . T h u s, e a c h in d iv id u a l b a n k is still
fa c e d w ith an im p o rta n t o p er a tin g p r o b le m . S o m e o f the
p r o b lem s fa c e d b y in d iv id u a l b a n k s, w ith sp e c ia l referen ce
to b a n k s in th is F e d e r a l R e se r v e D istr ic t, w ill b e d isc u sse d
in an article to a p p ea r in a fu tu re is su e o f th is Review.
C h a r les T . T aylor
EMPLOYMENT INDEXES AVAILABLE
The Research Departm ent has com pleted seasonal adjustment
of certain em ploym ent d ata for the Sixth Fed e ral Reserve Dis
trict a n d for the six District states. These adjusted series, run
ning from 1947 to the present, include: Total nonagricultural
em ploym ent; m anufacturing, nonm anufacturing, an d construc
tion employment for the District an d each of the six states; and
total District employment in a p p a re l, textiles, lum ber, wood
products, furniture an d fixtures, food, p a p e r, transportation
equipm ent, chem icals, fab rica ted m etals, an d prim ary metals.
The adjusted series incorporate the latest (1962) bench
marks of the state employment services, as w ell as revisions of
historical d ata to take account of the 1957 changes in the
Stan d ard Industrial Classification. C o p ies a re a v a ila b le upon
request to the Research Departm ent, Fed e ral Reserve Bank of
A tlan ta, A tlan ta, G e o rg ia 30303.
•
4 •
The District’s Economic Characteristics
In red u cin g the m ass o f a v a ila b le e c o n o m ic in tellig e n c e
to m a n a g ea b le p ro p o rtio n s, th e e c o n o m ic an a ly st o ften
u ses a g en era liza tio n to d escrib e w h a t h e b e lie v e s are th e
m ajor e c o n o m ic d e v elo p m en ts. L ik e w ise , in d escrib in g th e
e c o n o m ic structure o f an area as large and c o m p le x as the
S ixth F ed era l R ese r v e D istrict, th e a n alyst is a lso lik ely
to reach for a h a n d y gen era liza tio n . H e m u st rem em b er,
h o w ev er, th at a g en era liza tio n th at m a y b e a p p rop riate
fo r th e D istrict as a w h o le m a y n o t b e a p p lica b le fo r o n e
o f th e D istrict states or a sm a ller area.
In ord er to sh arp en ou r k n o w le d g e o f th is D istr ic t’s
e c o n o m ic structure, th e F e d e r a l R e se r v e B a n k o f A tla n ta
h as co m p ile d statistics o n in c o m e , e m p lo y m e n t, sa les,
p o p u la tio n , and b a n k in g , n o t o n ly fo r th e en tire D istrict
and ea ch D istrict state b u t also , w h en p o ssib le , fo r th e
sm aller trade and b a n k in g areas sh o w n o n th e m a p to th e
right. T h e se trade and b a n k in g areas are c o m p o s e d o f
co u n ties su rrou n d in g m ajor cities and are rela tiv ely h o m o
g e n e o u s in e c o n o m ic structure.
D ive rsity Is the R ule
T h e tab le sh o w in g th e p ercen ta g e d istrib u tio n o f p erso n a l
in c o m e b y so u rce fo r th e six -sta te area an d fo r th e in d i
vid u al D istrict sta tes— A la b a m a , F lo rid a , G e o rg ia , L o u isi
ana, M ississip p i, and T e n n e sse e — illu stra tes th e d iversity
o f th e D istr ic t’s e c o n o m y . F o r ex a m p le , m an u fa ctu rin g
en terp rises d u ring 1 9 6 1 p ro v id ed $ 1 5 o f ev ery $ 1 0 0
in in c o m e receiv ed b y D istr ic t resid en ts in th e six -sta te
area. In F lo rid a , th ey p ro v id e d o n ly $ 9 o f e v ery $ 1 0 0
Percent Distribution of Personal Income in 1961,
by Source
Sixth District States
A la.
M in in g
C o n s t r u c t io n
M a n u fa c t u r in g
T ra d e
F in a n c e , I n s u ra n c e .
a n d R e a l E sta te
T r a n s p o r ta tio n ,
C o m m u n ic a t io n ,
a n d P u b lic
U t ilit ie s
S e r v ic e s
F e d e ra l
G o v ern m e n t
S ta te a n d L o c a l
G o v ern m e n t
F a rm
P r o p r ie t o r ’s
n o n fa rm
P ro p e rty In co m e
O th e r* *
Fla.
Ga.
La.
D istrict
Miss. Tenn. State
1
3
20
10
*
*
5
9
13
3
19
13
5
4
12
12
1
3
15
9
4
22
12
1
4
15
12
3
4
3
3
2
3
3
5
6
5
8
6
6
7
7
4
6
5
7
5
7
10
6
9
4
7
5
7
7
5
7
5
6
5
9
4
8
13
7
6
7
6
9
9
12
10
17
11
9
10
11
8
12
13
10
9
13
8
10
11
9
12
12
*Less than 0.5 percent.
* *Includes other industries, other labor income, and transfer payments.
receiv ed , w h ile A la b a m a resid en ts rec eiv ed $ 2 0 o f every
$ 1 0 0 fro m th is sou rce.
In an area o fte n th o u g h t o f as p rim arily agricultural,
p erh ap s m a n y w ill b e surp rised to k n o w th at in c o m e earn ed
in agriculture, b o th fro m fa rm c a sh receip ts and farm
w a g es, a cco u n ted for less th an 6 p ercen t o f to ta l in c o m e
Manufacturing Employment in the Sixth District
As a Percent of Total Employment in 1960
7-1 3 Percent
______ _
1 4 -2 0
/
2 1-27
lip
!
/ . . . . ......
2 8 -3 4
35 and Over .'
K e y to A re a s:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
Anniston-Gadsden
Birmingham
Dothan
Mobile
Montgomery
Jacksonville
Miami
Orlando
Pensacola
Tampa-St. Petersburg
Atlanta
Augusta
Columbus
Macon
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
Savannah
South Georgia
Alexandria-Lake Charles
Baton Rouge
Lafayette-lberia
New Orleans
Jackson
Hattiesburg-LaurelMeridian
Natchez
Chattanooga
Knoxville
Nashville
Tri-Cities
in th e six -sta te area d u rin g 1 9 6 1 . O n ly in M ississip p i,
w h ere farm in c o m e a cco u n te d fo r $ 1 3 o f e v ery $ 1 0 0 re
c e iv e d b y M ississip p ia n s, w as th e rela tiv e sh are o f fa rm in
c o m e larger th an th e a m o u n t rec eiv ed fro m sta te an d lo c a l
g o v ern m en ts. T h e p o c k e tb o o k im p o rta n ce o f in c o m e from
b o th state and lo c a l and F e d er a l g o v ern m en ts is ap parent
w h en o n e c o n sid ers th at g o v ern m en t p a y ro lls, rela tive to
to ta l in c o m e , p ro v id e d fro m tw o to th ree tim es m o re in
c o m e th an d id agricu ltu re in all D istr ict sta tes e x c e p t
M ississip p i.
P er so n a l in c o m e d a ta , a v a ila b le b y so u rce fo r F lo rid a
trade and b a n k in g areas d u rin g 1 9 6 0 , rev ea l th a t m ark ed
d ifferen ces in in c o m e c o m p o sitio n ex ist b e tw e e n differen t
areas in th e sa m e state. F o r ex a m p le, g o v ern m en t p ayrolls
in th e J a c k so n v ille area w ere tw ic e as im p ortan t, relative
to to ta l in c o m e , as th ey w ere in th e O rla n d o area. M a n u
fa ctu rin g in c o m e , rela tiv e to to ta l in c o m e , w a s le ss im
p o rta n t in th e M ia m i area th a n in any o th er area in th e
state.
V a rie d E m p lo y m e n t Trends
E c o n o m ic sp ec ia liz a tio n is reflected b y th e v a r ied im
p o rta n ce o f d ifferen t ty p es o f em p lo y m e n t b e tw e e n states
and w ith in sta tes. T h e m a p sh o w in g m a n u fa ctu rin g e m
p lo y m en t as a p e r c en t o f to ta l e m p lo y m e n t in 1 9 6 0 in
d ica tes th at e m p lo y m e n t in m a n u fa ctu rin g w a s m ore
im p ortan t, rela tiv e to to ta l e m p lo y m e n t, in th e C h atta
n o o g a an d A n n isto n -G a d sd e n areas th an in o th er D is
trict areas. A b o u t 3 5 o u t o f e v e r y 1 0 0 jo b s in th ese tw o
areas w ere in m a n u fa ctu rin g en terp rises in 1 9 6 0 . In
•5 •
m ark ed con trast, m a n u fa ctu rin g p ro v id e d o n ly 1 0 o u t o f
every 1 0 0 job s in th e M ia m i area. H o w e v e r , M ia m i h a d
the largest p ercen ta g e o f th e to ta l n u m b er o f jo b s in
fin an ce, in su ra n ce, and real esta te. F a rm ers w ere m o re
n u m ero u s, relative to th e to ta l n u m b er o f w o rk ers, in th e
farm in g reg io n s o f th e S o u th G eo rg ia area, w h ile N e w
O rlean s h ad th e largest p e rcen ta g e o f w o rk ers e n g a g ed in
tran sp ortation , c o m m u n ic a tio n , an d p u b lic u tilities.
Cattle, Cotton, a n d P e a n u ts
F o r th o se in terested in k n o w in g th e im p o rta n ce o f differen t
so u rces o f farm in c o m e , as m ea su red b y c a sh receip ts
from farm m ark etin gs in 1 9 6 1 , Economic Characteristics
c o n ta in s a w ea lth o f in fo r m a tio n ran g in g fro m th e im
p o rta n ce o f so y b ea n s in A la b a m a to w h e a t in th e N a s h
v ille area. A siza b le p ro p o rtio n o f to ta l c a sh r e ceip ts w a s
a cco u n ted fo r b y p o u ltry an d e g g sa les in th e A n n isto n G a d sd en , B irm in gh am , A tla n ta , A u g u sta , H a ttiesb u rg L a u rel-M erid ia n , J a ck so n , an d C h a tta n o o g a areas. C ash
receip ts from sa les o f citru s p ro v id e d a b o u t 41 p ercen t o f
the cash in co m e receiv e d d u rin g 1 9 6 1 b y gro w ers in F lo r
ida. In th e O rla n d o and T a m p a -S t. P etersb u rg areas, h o w
ever, o v e r 6 0 p ercen t o f to ta l c a sh re ceip ts w a s earn ed
fro m citrus sa les.
In th e im p ortan t field o f c o n su m e r m a rk etin g , th e d ata
av ailab le o n in c o m e p er recip ien t ea rn ed d u rin g 1 9 6 0 and
o n p er cap ita retail sa les in 1 9 5 8 , b y trad e and b a n k in g
areas, g iv e th e m a rk etin g sp e c ia list a h a n d y to o l in e v a lu
ating p resen t and fu tu re m a rk et p o ten tia ls.
The secon d m ajor revision of Econom ic Characteristics of the
Sixth Fed e ra l Reserve District is now a vailable for distribution.
This study classifies data for the District by state an d 27
trade a n d banking areas. C op ies of the com plete study may
be obta in ed on request to the Research D eoartm ent, Fed era l
Reserve Bank of A tlanta, A tlanta, G e o rg ia 30303.
Bank Announcements
On June 7, the First National Bank of Merritt Island,
Merritt Island, Florida, a newly organized member
bank, opened for business and began to remit at par
for checks drawn on it when received from the Fed
eral Reserve Bank. Officers are Doyle I. Carlton, Chair
man of the Board; George C. Hopkins, Jr., President;
Albert J. Gowan, Vice President; and Donald R. Ward,
Cashier. Capital is $540,000, and surplus and other
capital funds, $270,000, as reported by the Comptroller
of Currency at the time the charter was granted.
The G ulf Gate National Bank, Sarasota, Florida, a
newly organized member bank, opened for business on
June 17 and began to remit at par. Officers are Gilbert
N. Parker, Chairman of the Board; Robert L. Ettenger,
President; Jonathan H. Woody, Orpheus F. Quartullo,
and Charles M. Beachler, Vice Presidents; and Charles
J. Henning, Vice President and Acting Cashier. Capital
is $250,000, and surplus and other capital funds,
$250,000, as reported by the Comptroller of Currency
at the time the charter was granted.
Debits to Individual Demand Deposit Accounts
Insured Commercial Banks in the Sixth District
(In Thousands of Dollars)
Percent Change
Year-to-date
5 Months
May 1963 from 1963
April
May
from
1963
1962
1962
May
1963
April
1963
May
1962
2,964,430
51,267
1,087,413
43,471
41.545
113,831
375,300
228 007
32,447
73,628
2,675,199
48,528
974,935
43,713
40,498
105,971
329,182
207,279
27,777
69,501
2,611,909r
47,844
954,329
42,251
39,646
86,361
312,802
210,989
28 968
67,008
+11
+6
+12
—1
+3
+7
+ 14
+10
+ 17
+6
+13
+7
+14
+3
+5
+32
+20
+8
+ 12
+ 10
+11
+7
+9
+7
+10
+26
+12
+13
+9
+11
FLORIDA, Totalt
Bartow* . . . .
Bradenton* . . .
Brevard County*
Clearwater* . . .
Daytona Beach*
De'ray Beach* . .
Ft. Lauderdale*
Ft. Mye’-sNorth Ft. Myers*
Gainesville* . . .
Jacksonville . . .
Key West* . . .
Lakeland* . . .
Miami
. . . .
Greater Miami*
Ocala*
. . . .
Orlando . . . .
Pensacola
. . .
St. Augustine* . .
St. Petersburg . .
Sarasota* . . .
Ta'lahassee*
. .
Tampa
. . . .
W. Palm-Palm Bch.*
Winter Haven* . .
6,742,818
27,594
49,256
134,044
71,956
68,142
24,528
235,954
7,010,071r
26,786
51,324
133,095
85,638
70 875
25,880r
248,556
6,197,065
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
61,356
n.a.
232,672
—4
+3
—4
+1
— 16
■—4
—5
—5
+9
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n a.
+11
n.a.
+1
+9
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
+10
n.a.
+1
58,859
56,590
966 221
19 070
92,936
1,101,376
1,612,979
43,244
313,197
97,362
15,032
222,645
81,487
85,289
508,960
164,706
45,611
63,194
57,249
922,792
20,441
97,325
1,137,733
1,721,064
46,013
.334,072
96,355
16,414
246.153
93,002
81,531
513 710
189,683
52,402
n.a.
50,648
937,230
17,725
90,221
1,026.796
1,495,293
n.a.
280,815
93,847
n.a.
233.677
86,344
74,664
485,079
189,050
n.a.
—7
—1
+5
—7
—5
—3
—6
—6
—6
+ 1
—8
— 10
— 12
+5
—1
— 13
—13
n.a.
+12
+3
+8
+3
+7
+8
n.a.
+12
+4
n.a.
—5
—6
+14
+5
— 13
n.a.
n.a.
+ 12
+1
+ 1
+8
+5
+6
n.a.
+ 11
+7
n.a.
—4
n.a.
+9
+6
—1
n.a.
GEORGIA, Totalf .
Albany . . . .
Athens* . . . .
Atlanta . . . .
Augusta . . . .
Brunswick . .
Columbus
. .
Dalton* . . . .
Elberton . . . .
Gainesville* . .
Griffin* . . . .
LaGrange* . .
. .
.
.
.
.
5,116,364
65,349
50,649
2,845,110
144,455
38,534
135 017
62,647
12,263
59,623
22,241
16,811
152,444
44,952
20.700
54,528
201,938
37,278
5,271,464
63,471
47,521
3,001,398
137,149
35,128
128,038
67,826
9,179
52,173
23,326
17,436
154,767
43,996
20,106
53,545
194,003
35,003
4,647,016r
61,238
48,756
2,561,870
129,308
34,718
129,690
56.960
10,025
60,046
21,723
16,510
145,344
37.412
18,831
53 132
189,631
36,878
—3
+3
+7
—5
+5
+10
+5
—8
+34
+ 14
—5
—4
—2
+2
+3
+2
+4
+6
+10
+7
+4
+11
+12
+11
+4
+10
+22
—1
+2
+2
+5
+20
+10
+3
+6
+1
+12
+5
+0
+ 18
+11
+8
+2
n.a.
+9
+5
+7
-A
+9
+18
—1
+3
+6
+0
LOUISIANA, Totalf**
Abbeville* . . .
Alexandria* . . .
Baton Rouge . . .
Bunkie* . . . .
Hammond* . . .
Lafayette* . . .
Lake Charles
. .
New Iberia*
. .
New Orleans . . .
Plaquemine*
. .
Thibodaux* . . .
3,108,333
8,013
88,092
363,305
4,701
27,800
86.351
93,837
26,397
1,663,264
6.881
15,209
2,973,188
7,821
81,961
346,182
4,439
26,736
77,381
87,216
25,598
1,599,909
6,636
16,533
2,762,572r
n.a.
85,755
302,476
n.a.
n.a.
73,852
88,495
n.a.
1,579,305
n.a.
n.a.
+5
+2
+7
+5
+6
+4
+12
+8
+3
+4
+4
—8
+13
n.a.
+3
+20
n.a.
n.a.
+17
+6
n.a.
+5
n.a.
n.a.
+9
n.a.
+5
+12
n.a.
n.a.
+11
+3
n.a.
+5
n.a.
n.a.
998,136
71,368
39.879
413.668
31,492
58,049
27,128
886,301
66,605
38.396
357,674
29,470
50,444
25,679
888 098r
65,832
40,651
365,753
30,094
52,965
24,742
+13
+7
+4
+16
+7
+15
+6
+12
+8
—2
+13
+5
+10
+10
+7
+11
—2
+5
+2
+12
+9
40,260
27,918
21,568
37,190
25,245
18,579
n.a.
23,608
n.a.
+8
+11
+16
n.a.
+18
n.a.
n.a.
+10
n.a.
2,582,355
60,206
381,869
52,529
96,494
289,713
937,435
2,466,281
58,664
385,675
48,669
92,154
275,138
876,298
+5
+3
—1
+8
+5
+5
+7
+10
+5
+8
+6
+4
+7
+10
+7
+5
+8
+10
+1
+6
+8
SIXTH DISTRICT, Total 21,512,436
Total, 32 Cities . 12,958,789
21,282,504
12,715,369
19,452,443
11,912,337
+1
+2
+11
+9
+10
+8
318,100,000 307,800,OOOr295,400,000
+3
+8
+9
ALABAMA, Totalf
Anniston . . . .
Birmingham . .
Drthan . . . .
Gadsden . . . .
Huntsville* . .
Mobile . . . .
Montgomery . .
Selma* . . . .
Tuscaloosa* . .
Marietta*
Newnan .
Rome*
.
Savannah .
Valdosta .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
MISSISSIPPI, Totalf**
Biloxi-Gulfport* .
Hattiesburg . . .
Jackson . . . .
Laurel* . . . .
Meridian
. . .
Natchez* . . . .
Pascago’.ilaMoss Point* . .
Vicksburg
. . .
Yazoo City* . . .
TENNESSEE, Totalf**
Bristol* . . . .
Chattanooga . . .
Johnson City* . .
Kingsport* . . .
Knoxville . . . .
Nashville . . . .
UNITED STATES
344 Cities . . .
2,345,783r
57,189
354,333
49,526
92,448
270,118
851,795
*Not included in total for 32 cities that are part of the national debit series main
tained by the Board of Governors.
fPartly estimated.
n.a. Not available.
**Includes only banks in the Sixth District portion of the state.
r Revised.
• 6 •
S ix th
D is tr ic t
S ta tis tic s
Seasonally Adjusted
(All data are indexes, 1957-59 = 100, unless indicated otherwise.)
Latest Month
(1963)
One
Month
Ago
Two
Months
Ago
SIXTH DISTRICT
INCOME AND SPENDING
Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . April 39,836 39,379r 39,004r
122
127
114
Farm Cash R e c e ip t s ................................... April
C r o p s .......................................................April
131
153
112
L ivestock..................................................April
115
110
115
Department Store S a l e s * / * * .................... June
137p
123
118
Department Store S t o c k s * ......................... May
125
122
123
Instalment Credit at Banks,* (Mil. $)
New Loans
............................................. May
153
169
166
Repaym ents.............................................May
148
149
149
PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT
Nonfarm Employment................................... May
Manufacturing........................................ May
Apparel.................................................. May
Chemicals.............................................May
Fabricated M e t a ls .............................. May
Food....................................................... May
Lbr., Wood Prod., Furn. & Fix. . . . May
P a p e r ..................................................May
Primary M e t a ls ...................................May
Textiles..................................................May
Transportation Equipment.................... May
Nonmanufacturing................................... May
Construction........................................ May
Farm Employment........................................ May
Insured Unemployment, (Percent of Cov. Emp.) May
Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . .
May
Manufacturing P a y r o lls .............................. May
Construction C ontracts*..............................April
R e sid en tia l............................................. April
All O th e r ..................................................April
Electric Power P rodu ction**.................... April
Cotton C onsum ption**.............................. May
Petrol. Prod, in Coastal La. and Miss.**
. May
FINANCE AND BANKING
Member Bank Loans*
All B a n k s.................................................. May
Leading C i t i e s ........................................June
Member Bank Deposits*
All B a n k s..................................................May
Leading C i t i e s ........................................June
Bank D e b it s * /* * ........................................ May
One
Year
Ago
37,159
109
115
103
115
115
144
131
111
109
132
104
111
102
93
107
99
94
113
111
102
89
3.8
41.0
131
139
132
146
134
100
163
111
109
131
104r
lllr
103
93
105
99
95
115
111
101
84
3.7
40.7r
131
141
129
150
131
98
156
110
109
129
104
110
103
93
107
98
94
116
111
100
89
4.0
40.7
130
124
122
125
145
96
159r
109
107
126
102
108
104
93
104
98
97
104
109
97
91
4.0
40 9
125
139
116
158
122
106
145
150
147
149
142
149
141
133
133
130
128
135
130
123
140
131
124
137
120
120
123
INCOME AND SPENDING
Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . April
Farm Cash R e c e ip t s ...................................April
Department Store S a l e s * * .........................May
7,528
114
115
7,390r
109
112
7,371r
114
137
6,950
102
118
PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT
Nonfarm Employment...................................May
Manufacturing........................................May
Nonmanufacturing...................................May
Construction........................................May
Farm Employment........................................May
Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) May
Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . May
Manufacturing P a y r o lls .............................. May
112
108
114
112
68
2.7
39.9
127
112
108
114
112r
68
2.9
39.9r
129
112
107
114
109
75
3.0
40.2
128
109
105
111
111
75
3.0
40.0
121
FINANCE AND BANKING
Member Bank L o a n s ...................................May
Member Bank D e p o s i t s ..............................May
Bank D e b its* * .............................................May
153
134
141
151
135
152
150
134
149
138
125
127
INCOME AND SPENDING
Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . April
Farm Cash R e c e ip t s ...................................April
Department Store S a l e s * / * * .................... May
5,948
104
111
5,907r
113
109
5,922r
115
115
5,570
116
105
PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT
Nonfarm Employment...................................May
Manufacturing........................................May
Nonmanufacturing...................................May
Construction........................................May
Farm Employment........................................May
Insured Unemployment, (Percent of Cov. Emp.) May
Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . .
May
Manufacturing P a y r o lls .............................. May
103
99
103
97
95
4.2
42.0
122
102
lOOr
103
94
77
4.3
42.3
124
102
100
103
92
85
4.6
42.6
125
100
94
101
83
92
4.8
41.2
110
139
118
126
142
119
127
140
119
121
129
112
115
3,040
117
105
2,993r
123
98
3,003r
141
109
2,792
107
102
LOUISIANA
FINANCE AND BANKING
Member Bank L oans*................................... May
Member Bank D eposits*.............................. May
Bank D e b it s * /* * ........................................ May
INCOME AND SPENDING
Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . April
Farm Cash R e c e ip t s ................................... April
Department Store S a l e s * / * * .................... May
5,373r
129
120
5,115
110
110
107
102
109
94
104
4.1
40.9
122
107
102
109
94r
90
4.0
40.3r
122
107
102
109
92
81
4.2
40.1
120
105
101
107
96
105
4.7
40.4
118
PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT
Nonfarm Employment...................................
M anufacturing........................................
Nonmanufacturing...................................
Construction........................................
Farm Employment........................................
Insured Unemployment, (Percent of Cov. Emp.)
Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . .
Manufacturing P a y r o lls ..............................
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
115
118
114
120
79
4.2
40.6
138
115
117
114
121
79
4.3
40.5r
135r
115
117
114
119
84
4.6
40.2
135
111
113
111
105
81
4.6
40.5
129
153
131
134
150
128
132
150
129
135
132
119
122
FINANCE AND BANKING
Member Bank L oans*...................................
Member Bank D eposits*..............................
Bank D e b its * /* * ........................................
May
May
May
170
146
143
168
143
137
165
141
147
151
130
131
6,394r
112
100
6,314r
117
123
111
111
110
131
98
4.6
41.0
128
lllr
111
110
124r
94
4.5
41.2
128
110
111
109
124
97
5.0
40.6
127
109
110
108
128
97
4.8
40.8
125
151
129
135
150
131
136
152
134
137
133
119
120
TENNESSEE
INCOME AND SPENDING
Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . April 11,367
Farm Cash R e c e ip t s ................................... April
133
Department Store S a l e s * * ......................... May
151
FINANCE AND BANKING
Member Bank L o a n s ...................................May
Member Bank D e p o s it s .............................. May
Bank D e b its* * ............................................. May
One
Year
Ago
5,368r
119
97
FLORIDA
PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT
Nonfarm Employment................................... May
Manufacturing........................................ May
Nonmanufacturing...................................May
Construction........................................ May
Farm Employment........................................ May
Insured Unemployment, (Percent of Cov. Emp.) May
Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . .
May
Manufacturing P a y r o lls .............................. May
Two
Months
Ago
MISSISSIPPI
INCOME AND SPENDING
Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . April 5,494
Farm Cash R e c e ip t s ................................... April
120
Department Store S a l e s * * ......................... May
103
FINANCE AND BANKING
Member Bank L o a n s ...................................May
Member Bank D e p o s i t s ..............................May
Bank D e b its* * .............................................May
One
Month
Ago
GEORGIA
ALABAMA
PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT
Nonfarm Employment................................... May
Manufacturing........................................ May
Nonmanufacturing................................... May
Construction........................................ May
Farm Employment........................................ May
Insured Unemployment, (Percent of Cov. Emp.) May
Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . .
May
Manufacturing P a y r o lls ..............................May
Latest Month
(1963)
ll,327r ll,021r 10,693
154
103
109
147
157
138
116
119
116
93
113
3.3
40.6
156
116
120r
115
94
111
3.4
40.8r
155
116
119
115
92
117
3.5
41.5
157
115
121
114
90
119
3.2
41.4
154
150
131
136
147
132
143r
148
134
136
128
122
125
INCOME AND SPENDING
Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . April 6,459
April
119
Farm Cash R e c e ip t s ..............................
111
Department Store S a l e s * / * * .................... May
PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT
Nonfarm Employment................................... May
Manufacturing........................................ May
Nonmanufacturing................................... May
Construction........................................ May
Farm Employment........................................ May
Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) May
May
Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . .
Manufacturing P a y r o lls .............................. May
FINANCE AND BANKING
Member Bank L oans*...................................
Member Bank D eposits*..............................
Bank D e b it s * /* * ........................................
May
May
May
6,039
115
109
♦For Sixth District area only. Other totals for entire six states.
**Daily average basis.
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
Sources: Personal income estimated by this Bank; nonfarm, mfg. and nonmfg. emp., mfg. payrolls and hcurs, and unemp., U.S. Dept, of Labor and cooperating state agencies; cotton
consumption, U.S. Bureau of Census; construction contracts, F. W. Dodge Corp.; petrol, ■'r-d.. US Bur®au of Mines; elec. power prod., Fed. Power Comm.; farm cash receipts and
firm emp., U.S.D.A. Other indexes based on data collected by this Bank. All indexes calculated by this Bank.
•
7 •
DISTRICT BUSINESS CO N D ITIO N S
Billions ol Dollors
Annual Rate
Seas. Adj.
T h e District's economy m ade a further modest advance, although
progress w as m arred by some significant declines. Employment e x
panded further, but a few k ey types w eakened . Personal income con
tinued to increase, stim ulating a further rise in consumer spending.
Farm ers w ere again buffeted by the w eather: Rains broke the drought
in some a re a s, but excessive moisture threatens G eorgia's tobacco crop.
Personal Income
Nonfarm
Employment
Mfg. Employment
is
is
U*
Nonfarm em ploym ent in the District moved up to a new record in
M ay. H o w e v e r , a sm all d e c lin e in m a n u fa ctu rin g e m p lo y m e n t ca u sed th e
Average Weekly Hours*
Worked in Mfg.
in crea se to b e m o d e st an d so m e w h a t le ss th a n in earlier m o n th s o f 1 9 6 3 .
E m p lo y m e n t in ap p a rel an d in p a p er an d p rin tin g, ru n n in g co u n ter to th e
slo w in g te n d e n c y in o th er in d u stries, reg istered sig n ifica n t in c re a ses. M a n u
fa ctu rin g p a y ro lls d e c lin e d slig h tly fo r th e first tim e in fiv e m o n th s, b e c a u se
avera g e h o u rly earn in gs in m o st D istric t sta tes eith er d ro p p ed or rem a in ed
u n c h a n g ed . C o n stru ctio n co n tra cts, o n a th r e e -m o n th m o v in g a v era g e b a sis,
ch a n g e d little in A p r il. C o n str u c tio n em p lo y m e n t, h o w e v e r , c o n tin u e d th e
sharp a d v a n c e b eg u n la st Jan u ary. C o tto n c o n su m p tio n at th e D istr ic t’s tex tile
m ills e x p a n d e d fu rth er in A p ril, c o n tra stin g sh a rp ly w ith th e d o w n tu rn in te x tile
e m p lo y m e n t. S te e l p r o d u ctio n d e c lin e d sh a rp ly fr o m th e p e a k in m id -M a y .
Mfg. Payrolls
Construction
Contracts
moving avg.
Electric Power,
Production I
1^
District retail spending in M ay continued to push upw ard, although
some slackening in consumer credit dem ands w as evident. S a les at
D istr ic t d ep a rtm en t sto res a d v a n c e d sh a rp ly d u rin g ea rly J u n e, fo llo w in g
m o d e st b u t w id esp r e a d in c r e a se s in M a y . F u rn itu re sto re sa les in all D istrict
sta tes r eb o u n d e d m o d era tely . B a n k d eb its, h o w e v e r , d ip p e d slig h tly in M a y ,
as c h e c k b o o k sp en d in g d e c lin e d in all sta tes e x c e p t A la b a m a an d M ississip p i.
A u to sa les in th e six -sta te area fo r th e first fo u r m o n th s o f th is y ea r m a tch ed
th o se o f th e n a tio n : B o th w ere a b o u t 1 0 p e r c e n t a b o v e th o se fo r th e sa m e p erio d
la st year. S a les ta x c o lle c tio n s in d ica te re n e w e d stren gth d u rin g M a rch and
A p r il, fo llo w in g a m o d e r a te d e c lin e ea rly in th e y ear. C o n su m e r in sta lm en t
cred it o u tsta n d in g at D istric t b a n k s e x p a n d e d d u rin g M a y b u t fa ile d to eq u a l
p r e v io u s gain s. T h e sm a ller d eb t e x p a n sio n reflected a d ip in th e v o lu m e o f
c o n su m er b o rro w in g , to g eth er w ith an in cr e a se in th e le v e l o f rep a y m en ts.
P e r so n a l in c o m e in A p r il e x p a n d e d $ 4 5 7 m illio n o v e r th e p r e v io u s m o n th .
A m o n g D istr ict sta tes, M ississip p i, G eo rg ia , an d L o u isia n a sco r e d th e la rg est
y e a r-to -d a te ga in s o v e r th e sam e p e r io d la st y ear.
Cotton Consumption
Dept. Store
Sales i
Bank Debits
As summer began, farm ers tasted the bitter and the sw eet. R a in s
b ro k e th e d ro u g h t in m o s t p la c e s in th e so u th ern rea c h e s o f th e D istr ic t and
g e n era lly im p ro v e d cro p p r o sp ec ts. H o w e v e r , e x c e ss iv e ra in fa ll in G eo rg ia
h a s en d a n g ered th e flu e-cu red to b a c c o c ro p n o w b e in g h a r v este d . M a n y p a s
tu res stu n ted b y p r o lo n g e d dry w ea th e r are im p r o v in g b u t are still p ro v id in g
o n ly lim ited grazin g. T h e h a rv est o f citru s h a s v irtu a lly e n d e d , b u t h a rv ests o f
v e g e ta b les, h a y , sm a ll grain s, an d o th e r cro p s, a lth o u g h n o w tem p o ra rily
c h e c k e d b y th e rain fall, are g a in in g h e a d w a y . F a rm e m p lo y m e n t in crea sed in
M a y , w ith m a jo r ga in s o ccu rrin g in A la b a m a an d L o u isia n a . P r ices fo r m a n y
im p o rta n t farm p ro d u cts m o v e d lo w er , b u t sh a rp ly h ig h er p rices fo r citrus
ca u sed an in crea se in th e M a y in d e x o f p rices r e c e iv e d b y fa rm ers.
moving avg.
Member Bank Loans
Member Bank Deposits
P E R C E N T O F R E Q U IR E D R E S E R V E S
i^ 1 ^ 1 ^
Excess Reserves
^ * * .3 .9
Borrowings from
F. R B an k v.
J 4
'n i rtr i nit I
rt<iir ii*<«f*r>rw^i i I
1961
1962
*Seas, adj. figure; not an index.
1963
Total bank credit of District member banks rebounded in M ay, re
flecting a sharp rise in loans. In v estm en ts d e c lin e d furth er, h o w e v e r , and
d e p o sits d ro p p ed to a le v e l w e ll b e lo w th e h ig h reg istered in M a rch o f th is
y ea r. L o a n s an d in v e stm e n ts at b a n k s in le a d in g c itie s sh o w a c o n tin u e d rise
th ro u g h Ju n e, an d d e p o sits in J u n e a d v a n c e d to a n e w h ig h .
N o te: D a ta
o n w h ic h
s t a t e m e n t s a r e b a s e d h a v e b e e n a d j u s t e d t o e lim in a t e s e a s o n a l in flu e n c e s .
@FedFRASER