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Monthly Review ATLANTA, G E O R G IA , JA N U A R Y 31, 1955 lnThisIssue: T h e F lo w e rs T h a t Bloom in th e Spring R e c e s s io n a n d E c o n o m ic G r o w th A s s e ts o f D is tr ic t B a n k s E x p a n d in 1 9 5 4 SixtfiDittridStatistics: Condition of 21 Member Banks in Leading Cities Debits to Individual Demand Deposit Accounts Department Store Sales and Inventories Instalment Cash Loans Retail Furniture Store Operations Wholesale Sales and Inventories Sixik ViftridIndexes: Construction Contracts Cotton Consumption Department Store Sales and Stocks Electric Power Production Furniture Store Sales Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Payrolls Petroleum Production Turnover of Demand Deposits S f e c f e r a f o j r f t f a n t a DISTRICT BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS A l t h o u g h e c o n o m i c a c tiv ity , w ith t h e e x c e p t i o n o f a g r i c u l t u r e , c o n t i n u e s t o im p r o v e m o r e t h a n s e a s o n a lly , t h e o v e r a ll e x p a n s i o n is o f m o d e s t p r o p o r t i o n s . M a n u f a c t u r i n g e m p lo y m e n t a n d p a y r o l l s r o s e s o m e w h a t; c o n s t r u c t i o n s h o w e d a f u r t h e r s h a r p a d v a n c e ; a n d c o n s u m e r s p e n d i n g a n d b a n k lo a n s c o n t i n u e d t o m a k e m o d e r a t e g a in s . D e p a r tm e n t s to r e s a le s , seasonally adjusted, continued upward in early January. N e w c a r s a l e s are increasing faster than a year earlier, judging from new car registrations in Atlanta in late December and early January. C o n s u m e r i n s t a l m e n t l o a n s made in December by commercial banks rose; the rise in loans on home appliances and other consumer goods was particularly sharp. Automobile loans also gained significantly. F o r e i g n t r a d e through District ports recovered in October after a three-month decline. Exports rose more than imports. M a n u fa c t u r in g e m p lo y m e n t a n d p a y r o lls , after seasonal adjustment, continued to advance in November. C o n s tr u c t io n in 1954. c o n tra c ts during December were higher than in any other month were the highest on record. R e s id e n tia l c o n tra c ts t e x t i l e a c t i v i t y , measured by seasonally adjusted cotton consumption, declined sharply during December, after having increased in preceding months. C o tto n A ve rage w h o le s a le p r ic e s of important District nonfarm commodities remained relatively stable. P e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t i o n in coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, after seasonal adjust ment, rose substantially during December, halting the decline that began in June. I n t e r e s t r a t e s o n n e w b u s i n e s s l o a n s made by banks in major cities averaged slightly lower in December than they did in September. d e b i t s , seasonally adjusted, increased in December and were substantially above the year-ago level. Bank D e p o s i t s a t a l l m e m b e r b a n k s increased less than seasonally in December, but loans expanded more than seasonally. T im e d e p o s it s a t c o m m e r c ia l banks rose slightly in December instead of de clining as in 1953. F a r m p r i c e s of broilers have risen sharply, whereas advances in prices of hogs, beef cattle, and eggs have been slight. Prices of cottonseed, peanuts, corn, rice, and milk are holding steady, but oranges and grapefruit are down. S t o c k s o f m o s t g r a i n s a n d h a y on farms are far below last year; and available grazing, though somewhat improved over last fall, is still short. Consequently, farmers feeding cattle and milk cows this winter find their costs higher. F a r m l a n d v a l u e s declined between July and November, but less rapidly than in the previous twelve months; values in Florida and Louisiana rose slightly. F arm p r o d u c tio n lo a n s o u t s t a n d in g slightly from year-earlier levels, but substantially. at all member banks in December were off r e a l - e s t a t e l o a n s o u t s t a n d i n g rose fa rm r e s e r v e s of District member banks remained around the December level during most of January, but some of the larger banks found it necessary to borrow. E x ce ss •2 • The Flowers That Bloom in the Spring Analogies between changing weather conditions and changing business conditions come to mind all too readily. Pondering the ups and downs of business and the many shades and degrees of optimism and pessimism that accom pany them, one is unavoidably reminded of the waxing and waning of life throughout nature during the cycle of the seasons and of the changing moods that are character istic of it. Prediction, too, is as uncertain in the one case as in the other. Take, for instance, the most recent example of this kind of situation. Last October the weather was unseasonably warm and the leaves clung to the trees long after they should have fallen. Close observers noted that onion skins seemed thicker and tougher than the year before and others were sure that the squirrels were flaunting bushier tails than usual and that the moles were burrowing deeper than last year. According to those who profess to know about such things, all signs were pointing to a long, hard winter ahead. A somewhat similar state of affairs existed in the realm of business. Beginning somewhere back in the third quarter of 1953, signs began to point to difficult times ahead. The index of industrial production, that averaged 134 for the year 1953 and that still stood at 132 in October of that year, fell little by little during the remainder of the year and on into 1954 until it hit a low of 123 in the spring. Much of the decline in industrial production was occa sioned by what was happening in the automobile industry and others related to it, as well as in the steel industry that feeds them. There had been severe reductions in the output of new cars in anticipation of bringing out new models earlier than in previous years. Thus, while the index of industrial production dropped by only ten or eleven points between October 1953 and the summer of 1954, primary metals dropped twenty-five points, and transporta tion equipment (which includes automobiles) dropped twenty-eight points in the index. Industrial production was further depressed by reduc tions in defense spending for hard goods and by inven tory liquidation between the fall of 1953 and the fall of 1954. Total business sales declined slightly but on the whole remained at a high level. Sales volume, however, was being maintained out of inventory rather than out of new production and so reacted unfavorably on production. Two other developments conspired to create uncertainty about the future during the period under consideration. Expenditures for new plant and equipment that had been running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 28.9 billion dollars in the third quarter of 1953 sank, quarter by quarter, to 26.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 1954. Expenditures by the Federal Government for goods and services likewise fell from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 62.2 billion dollars in the second quarter of 1953 to 47.9 billion in the third quarter of 1954. Accompanying the shrinkage in the industrial sector of the economy was an increase in the number of unemployed. Between the seasonal low in October 1953 and the late winter seasonal high of 1954 the number of unemployed more than trebled, rising from 1.8 percent of the labor force in October to 5.8 percent in the following March. Agriculture also had problems of its own. Chief among these was the decline in farm income resulting from falling prices, a shrinking export demand, and the ravages of a severe drought. For the first ten months of 1954 cash receipts were running some 4 percent below the same pe riod in 1953, receipts from livestock being down about 3 percent and those from crops down about 5 Vi percent. The brightest spot in the whole economic picture was the unabated housing boom. The demand for new housing seemed insatiable and month by month all records seemed to be broken. With disposable income stable at a high level, and with easy terms and low rates prevailing in the mort gage market, no one could say how far this particular boom had yet to go. The maintenance of retail sales at a high level was also a bright spot. It showed that consumers were in a buying mood, and things could not be too bad as long as they continued to buy. Buying, of course, had been helped to some extent by reductions in taxes— a form of stimulation that may not be repeated. To a certain extent too, buying has been maintained by encroaching on the proportion of income going into savings and by some increase in the use of consumer credit. A third bright spot in the picture was the paradoxical behavior of the stock market. While nearly everything else was going down, it continued to rise to unprecedented peaks. Like an aurora borealis it cast an unearthly glow over the whole economic scene so that everything shim mered in a beauty not its own. This, then, was the way the signs were pointing during most of 1954. Enough has been said to show that despite a few bright spots, there were some valid grounds for pessimism. Fears abounded that the country was at last about to encounter the major economic crisis that had been expected ever since the end of the second World War. Every war in the past, after all, had been followed by se rious economic repercussions. So far, World War II and the Korean War had been followed only by ripples and not by the tidal waves that had been anticipated. Was there not reason, indeed, to suppose that sooner or later we would experience the economic consequences of these worldshaking cataclysms? Was it reasonable to believe that such events could occur without producing any serious reaction? Darkened by this shadow of the past, the mood of the country in 1954 was fearful and pessimistic beyond any thing that was justified by objective conditions. There were optimists, of course, who took a different view of things. Everything was different now, the more extreme were saying. They pointed out that no two histori cal situations are ever alike and, anyway, our economy is now equipped with built-in stabilizers and shock absorb ers, to say nothing of self-starters, power steering, power brakes, automatic gear shifts, and direction signals— just •3• like our automobiles. With all this new paraphernalia, the machine need never again go into the ditch. The pessimists, however, muttered that although history may never repeat itself exactly, it nevertheless does repeat, and that even the fanciest kind of car can sometimes be found in the ditch. As often happens, however, the signs portending a hard winter have failed. Thus far it has been a remarkably open winter. Here and there, and now and then, perhaps, it has seemed as though the worst of winter was about to descend, but these periods have been short and quite infrequent, at least in this part of the country. A mildness betokening an early spring is in the air. Flowers that might be expected to blossom somewhat later are even now beginning to bud in the more sheltered places. Equally mistaken have been the signs of approaching economic troubles. The indexes that had shown little change from their low spring levels turned upward again. The index of industrial production by the end of the year reached 131— a figure higher than that for November 1953. Manufactures of both durable and nondurable goods ended the year at the highest level reached for the last twelve months. Construction activity continued without abatement except for that incident to the season. The holiday trade in 1954 exceeded that of 1953 and incomes remained high. Beginning in midsummer the number of unemployed as well as the number of temporary layoffs began to decline and the average work week began to lengthen a little. The stock market continued to forge ahead with only short lulls to punctuate the long advance. The air of pessimism that had constituted the psycho logical atmosphere throughout most of 1954 had evapo rated by the year’s end like a morning mist before the genial rays of a spring sun. The year 1955 opens with a feeling of buoyancy that is almost without precedent— at least in the period since 1929. New patents are being recorded in record numbers, showing that the inventiveness of the American people is very much alive and active. New in corporations are increasing in number month by month, showing that the venturesomeness of American business has not died out. And the nation is enjoying a boom in the number of babies that indicates a general feeling of security and prosperity throughout the population. It seems, therefore, that the optimists were right after all. It was no serious business set-back towards which we were heading last year. It was only a pause, only a short step back, perhaps, before resuming our upward march toward ever greater material prosperity. Even now the optimists are telling us that this is only the beginning of still better things to come. We are on the verge of a new era, a new type of economy, in which atomic energy, elec tronic controls, automation, and electronic brains will relieve mankind (or that fortunate part of it to which we belong) of much of the necessity for work and, presum ably, of thought. We will all live in bigger and better homes filled with more and better gadgets of all kinds. Our streets and roads will be crowded with millions more of longer, lower, and more powerful two- and three-toned cars, and the skies will be filled with streaking jets hurling millions of happy tourists from continent to continent at speeds approaching that of sound. A new era! The concept of a “new era,” however, is itself not new. The older folks in the population have heard of it before. The term stirs memories that one would rather forget in this season when hope and confidence, production and sales, and construction and new businesses are all bur geoning forth like flowers that bloom in the spring. Even in such a season, however, it might pay to be realistic. Spring is a fickle wench and her smile can be withdrawn as quickly as it is given, and all the flowers that bloom in the spring will not survive into the summer. Those that are indigenous to the region and that have developed sufficient hardiness to withstand the unexpected frosts and freezes of early spring may survive. Exotic varieties that have been betrayed by an early sun into a premature dis play of their beauty may never live to see the summer. In business, too, a season of recovery from recession has its hazards. Not all new ventures will survive and not all hopes and dreams will come true. Those that are most deeply rooted in the permanent needs of the economy will have the best chance of survival. On the other hand, those whose only reason for being is to buy cheap today in order to sell dear tomorrow and which have no roots in anything are quite likely to be early casualties in any economic storm. To the degree that any economic activity loses its connection with the real needs of people and, hence, its true economic significance, and thus begins to assume this rootless condition, it becomes increasingly vulnerable to every wintry wind that blows. Just now, therefore, when the future shines so brightly ahead of us, we should be especially wary of the dangers that lurk in precisely such a situation. The modest and soundly-based gains that are currently being made through out the economy can easily be forced into unsound and speculative flowering by ill-considered policies and actions taken at this time on the strength of little more than the prevailing optimistic mood. It would be well, therefore, at this juncture to consider carefully the fate of at least some of the flowers that bloom in the spring. E arle L. R auber B a n k A n n o u n c e m e n ts The Federal Reserve System welcomes to its member ship the newly organized First National Bank of Pom pano Beach, Pompano Beach, Florida. The bank opened for business January 3 with capital stock oi $200,000 and surplus of $50,000. Officers are Arthur H. Ogle, President; E. G. Steadman, Executive Vice President; and L. E. Sauer, Cashier. Added to the par list, on January 1, was the Umatilla State Bank, Umatilla, Florida. This bank’s capital amounts to $50,000 and surplus and undivided profits to $106,464. John C. Deavor is President; Oakley Andrews is Vice President and Cashier; and C. S. Copelan is Assistant Cashier. The newly organized nonmember Bank of Miami Beach, Miami Beach, Florida, opened for business on January 7 and began remitting at par. Capital stock amounts to $500,000 and surplus and undivided profits to $125,000. D. Lee Powell is President; O. F. Rogers, Executive Vice President; B. F. Danbaum, Vice Presi dent; and Charles M. Volk, Vice President and Cashier. . 4. Recession and Economic Growth R e c e s s io n L ess S h o c k to D i s t r i c t ’s I n c o m e -f r \ r - » was a fairly good year in the Atlanta District. I U K / l Farmers, of course, were hit hard—much 1 v / v I harder than those in other parts of the coun try— by a combination of acreage restrictions, lower prices, and extended drought. Although the chief manufacturing industries, textiles and lumber, suffered from the same troubles as in other regions, total manufacturing employ ment declined less in the Sixth Federal Reserve District than nationally, and income payments from construction, trade, and other nonfarm, nonmanufacturing activities raised total income for 1954 above that for 1953. The District’s economic record for 1954 contradicted a generalization frequently made in the past that because of the South’s heavy dependence upon specialized agricul ture and its lack of diversified manufacturing, it can expect b illto n d o lla r s in 1954 T h an to N a t i o n ’s greater adverse effects from a recession than the nation as a whole. Indeed, past experience for the most part has supported this generalization. The 1953-54 recession thus tested to some extent whether the postwar decline in relative importance of agricultural income and the diversification of manufactur ing has so changed the South’s economy that a tendency toward greater swings during a business recession no longer exists. The results of the test, of course, are far from conclusive of what would happen in a more severe recession. They are, however, encouraging. Indeed, it looks as though the District may have made a better record in 1954 than the nation. Current estimates indicate that income payments to individuals in the District during 1954 were somewhat greater than in 1953, whereas Cash receipts from farm marketings (left) were off more in 1954 in the District states than in the nation. Percentage changes in farm cash receipts in 1954 from 1953 (below) varied among indi vidual states. •10 -30 ! T ” livestock and products ^ cro p sto to l' “EsggSi n g3 «« 4-20 +10 + 30 I-----1-----1-----‘---- a la b a m a f lo r id a georgia lo u is ia n a , .■ ■ ■ ■ V .'.y.'.' A V .',, A ,- m m i s s is s ip p i te n n e sse e six th d is t r ic t s t a te s Movements of production and prices of individual farm products important in District States also varied, as measured by percent changes in 1954 from 1953. 4 - tO -------+ 2 0,------,----+ 3 0,------,-----+ 4 0j -------! 9 5 4 - ’5 3 ♦Price change for flue-cured tobacco o n ly; se a so n a l av e ra g e . (n o v .) Manufacturing Employment Sixth District States Manufacturing employment decreased less in Sixth District states than in the nation. percent 1947-49* JQ0: s ix t h d is t r ic t s t a t e s seasonally adjusted: Payrolls declined more sharply than employment from the 1953 peak but began to rise earlier in 1954. Experiences in individual states varied. m a n u fa c tu rin g e m p lo y m en t p e rc e n t c h a n g e , 1 9 5 3 - 9 4 f i r s t t l mos- o v e r o q e ____ m fg . p a y r o lls A la b a m a f lo r id a g e o rg io lo u is ia n a m fg . e m p lo y m e n t rr.is s is s ip p i s i x t h d is t r ic t sta te s seasonally adjusted i I i ,1,1 1953 Most of the decline in manufacturing employment resulted from a slump in textiles and lumber and metals industries that began in 1953. p ercent percent 1947-49*100 I94?-49'>I00 A 1 t e x t ile s p r im a r y m e ta ls total personal income in the country was little changed. Preliminary estimates show total income payments in Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee just about the same in 1954 as in 1953, or perhaps slightly lower; perhaps down a little more in Mississippi; and up 5 percent in Florida. Louisiana income payments may have slightly exceeded those in 1953. This income growth in the District is, from one point of view, remarkable. It occurred despite rather sharp declines in income from those sources that in previous recessions had pulled income down more than nationally. Cash farm income in 1954 dropped more than twice the national rate. There was, moreover, a lagging demand for the products of the District’s traditionally most important manufacturing industries— textiles and lumber. This ap parent paradox can be better understood by considering developments in more detail. Farm Income Dropped Sharply District farmers received less income in 1954 than in 1953. Production was cut by acreage restrictions and severe drought, and prices were lower. The District cotton crop, for example, was off about one-fourth; the national crop declined only 18 percent. Drought severely reduced output of peanuts, sweet potatoes, peaches, and pecans. Thus, cash receipts from crops through the first ten months were 15 percent lower than in 1953. Mississippi farm cash receipts were down the most— 27 percent—whereas, Florida receipts increased 2 percent. Cash receipts from livestock declined only 2 percent. Prices were lower, but farmers marketed more cattle, calves, broilers, turkeys, and milk. Pork production was the only type of meat production failing to register a gain over the previous year. The relatively mild descent of receipts from livestock thus helped cushion the sharp drop of receipts from crops. Possibly 1955 will be a better year for farmers than 1954 was. If attempts to increase exports of farm com modities are successful, prices of District commodities should react favorably. Although acreage restrictions will cut cotton production again this year, price supports may prevent excessive price declines. Another drought, of course, would cause all of this analysis to fall apart. lu m b e r an d f u r n it u r e fosonaHy adjusted i..i 1) Income from Manufacturing Fell Off s e o sa n a lly ad juste J JL.I I i i i.i i I, i i 1954 1953 1953 But those declines were partially offset by strength in other types of manufacturing. percent 1947-49-100 tr a n s p o r ta tio n m o- a e q u ip m e n t ft o p p arel rr *V#1 V* c h e m ic a ls J8CO K seasonally adjusted X 1...1..1. i , l 1953 Income from manufacturing was lower in the District in 1954 than in 1953, although total manufacturing employ ment in the area declined at a lesser rate than it did throughout the country. Strong demands for items pro duced in the District, together with continued openings of new manufacturing plants, created enough jobs to at least cushion the impact of declining employment in tex tiles, lumber, and some other fields. Few er Jobs in T e x t ile s and Lum ber District textile activity started to fall off as early as June 1953. After that, textile employment, which accounts for about a fifth of total manufacturing employment, declined almost uninterruptedly until August 1954. Be ginning with that month the mills added more workers, • 6 • but they still employed fewer than in the like period in 1953. The reversed trend in employment, moreover, failed to raise the amount of cotton consumed by textile mills to the average levels of 1953, and by the end of the year prices had recovered only a little of the ground lost earlier. Despite some improvement since midyear, the 1954 per formance of the District lumber industry, measured by employment, was even worse than the lamented one of 1953. During the last half of 1954, the construction boom and the prolonged strike of lumber workers at Pacific coast plants stimulated demand for District lumber, but much of the demand for southern pine was met by reduc ing inventories rather than by increasing production. Latest data show employment at lumber, wood products, and furniture factories at 84 percent of the 1947-49 average. M ore Jobs in G ro w th In d u s t r ie s Substantial declines in employment in the metals and metal products industries also helped reduce income. But while textile, lumber, and other establishments were lay ing off workers, still other plants were adding employees. The District’s chemical manufacturers, for example, added employees during 1954. Openings of new factories, which created new job opportunities, helped offset adverse effects of cancellations and completions of defense orders. Among such new plants were the Chemstrand Corporation’s fully integrated nylon plant in Pensacola, Florida; Rayonier’s cellulose plant at Jesup, Georgia; and Buckeye Cellulose Corporation’s plant at Foley, Florida; the Lion Oil Com pany’s anhydrous ammonia plant in New Orleans; and Spencer Chemical’s plant at Vicksburg, Mississippi. The opening of such plants as Bowaters Southern Paper Corporation’s new mill at Calhoun, Tennessee, and Kraft Company’s container plant at Rome, Georgia, added more persons to the payrolls of the District’s paper industry. Employment figures also reflected a generally strong de mand for pulp and paperboard. Gains in number of work ers in the transportation equipment group in the District resulted partly from expanding automobile sales as well as the maintenance of high levels of aircraft production. Most of these new industries generally paid higher wage rates than the District average. This explains in part why manufacturing payrolls declined less than employment. On an average, the worker who still had a job in 1954 was getting more money than he had been getting in 1953. Average hourly wage rates increased more than enough to offset the fewer hours worked each week. Although unemployment in the District was not severe at any time, insured unemployment was considerably greater than in the preceding year and in relation to cov ered employment tended to be higher than in the nation. After the middle of 1954, however, insured unemployment declined as some workers were recalled and others ex hausted benefit rights and as lay-offs became fewer. In certain localities unemployment was a matter of concern, especially where manufacturing activity was reduced by declines in defense orders and where textiles, lumber, metals, and coal predominated. As difficult as it is to interpret data on the announce ments of proposed manufacturing plants, it seems now that there will be no major decline in the District’s industrial expansion in the immediate future. During 1954, plans were revealed for expanding or erecting 39 new plants costing a million dollars or more each, which is fewer than the number in 1953. The expected cost of about 275 million dollars, however, is substantially more than that for 1953. Nonfarm , Nonmanufacturing Activities Up If one of the lessons learned in 1954 was that the Dis trict’s economy has become somewhat more resistant to the economic shock of a recession, another was the realiza tion that most of the District’s income is from sources other than agriculture and manufacturing. Only a little over a quarter of total income payments comes directly from these two segments of the economy. Income from other sources— mining, construction, government, trade, finance, and service activities—is consequently of great importance. As it happened, increases in income from such activities were probably more than sufficient to offset declines in agriculture and manufacturing. G o v e rn m e n t, T rad e , a n d S e r v ic e E m p lo y m e n t Up One of the most important of these other sources of income is government—Federal, state, and local. The Fed eral government spent less in 1954, but state and local governments spent more. The increase resulted from heavy expenditures for public works and from expanded govern mental functions that required additional employees; this tendency prevailed in both the District and the nation. Employment by the Federal Government in the area averaged 4 percent lower in 1954 than in 1953. On the other hand, there were, on an average, 5 percent more employees on the payrolls of state and local governments. This gain exceeded the reduction in textile employment. Continued high consumer expenditures for goods and services also led to a further expansion in employment by trade and service establishments. Finance, insurance, and real-estate concerns expanded their employment suffi ciently to increase total income from those sources more than 10 percent. In short, developments outside of agricul ture and manufacturing weighed heavily on the District’s economic scales. C o n s tr u c t io n R e m a in s H ig h As in other parts of the country, construction activity was high during 1954. Contracts awarded during the year totaled about 2 billion dollars, or 12 percent more than in 1953. However, the corresponding figure for 37 eastern states was up slightly more— 13 percent. The increase of 24 percent in awards for the construction of educational buildings during 1954 over 1953 is further evidence of the importance of spending by state and local governments in the past year. Awards for the construction of manufactur ing plants were down 10 percent from 1953. Commercial construction, however, increased about 13 percent. Other types of nonresidential construction also continued high. Employment in contract construction, however, aver aged lower in 1954 than in 1953, partly because of labor disputes during the first part of the year. About 3,000 construction workers were off the job for several months •7• C o n s tr u c t io n S ix t h C o n tra c t A w a r d s D is t r ic t S t a t e s in Louisiana, and in July a strike of 6,500 workers at Oak Ridge reduced employment in Tennessee. A strike in North Georgia, starting in July and extending through August, almost completely halted commercial construc tion. Nevertheless, average weekly earnings and, conse quently, total income from construction were greater in 1954 than in 1953. As Income Changed, So Did Spending With a better income record than the country as a whole, consumer spending in the District also increased more than nationally. Dollar sales at Sixth District department stores, for example, were 2 percent greater in 1954 than in 1953, whereas sales throughout the country declined one percent. But the District spending pattern was far from uniform throughout the year. In the first quarter there was a slightly greater-thanusual decline in income receipts. Sympathetically, conS a le s a t D is t r ic t D e p a r t m e n t S t o r e s Pe rce n t C h a n g e , 1 9 5 4 m ^ ^ cj ^ ^ i O O>PC*p „0>$ Of£ ± ov ° ,9O o^ -2 — 3 fro m i<? ^ <? * IIT II 1953 •? •<* sumer spending was at a low level. Department store sales had fallen sharply immediately after Christmas and con tinued low through March. Consumers were buying a somewhat greater number of automobiles than in 1953, but despite the stimulus of increased price competition, they were spending less for other durable goods. When income improved in the second quarter, buying also picked up and continued to rise, except for short periods, from quarter to quarter in line with income ex pansion. The tempo accelerated towards the end of the year, and by December department store sales were 6 percent greater than in December 1953. Changes in income rather than in consumer credit seem to have governed the pattern of sales throughout the year. With sales of automobiles during the first quarter of 1954 only moderate, for example, new automobile loans at District commercial banks rose less than seasonally. In the face of heavy repayments of debts contracted in pre vious periods, instalment credit outstanding declined about 2 percent from November 1953 to March 1954. As sales expanded in the fourth quarter, however, consumer credit also expanded: New instalment loans at commercial banks and department store receivables rose more than seasonally. Consumer savings in the form of time deposits and savings and loan shares increased steadily during the year, with the rate of expansion varying with the rate of spend ing. Savings grew less rapidly in April and June, when spending rose, for example, but more rapidly in May, when spending weakened. Revival and Growth Most economic measures at the end of 1954 were pointing to at least a mild revival both in the District and the nation. Total District manufacturing employment, season ally adjusted, began to increase after July, and by Novem ber the movement had spread to practically all types of manufacturing. The lumber situation has improved, with demands strong and prices tending to rise. Manufacture of cotton textiles has advanced sharply. New contracts awarded for residential construction did not decline as they customarily do during the last months of the year. Con sumers ended the year by spending heavily, and merchants apparently were ordering more freely. If the economic record for the Sixth District in 1954 gives some evidence that the area is becoming more resistant to the shock of a recession, the evidence by no means supports the conclusion that the District’s economy is insulated from that of the nation. A look behind the figures has shown that a higher rate of economic growth in this area, reflected partly by greater industrialization rather than any insulation from the nation’s economy, explains the greater part of the District’s somewhat better than national performance in 1954. What the District’s record will be in 1955, therefore, depends primarily upon how the nation’s economy per forms. Aside from that, whether or not the District will continue to put on an even better performance than the nation will depend upon whether its greater-than-national economic development and growth continues. Charles T. Taylor Assets of District Banks Expand in 1954 At this time of the year, economists, businessmen and bankers, among others, devote a great deal of time to appraising economic events of the previous year. Regard less of the number of 1954 developments they may find, an outstanding one will be the expansion at commercial banks that occurred in the face of a business downturn. Even more significant in the Sixth District is the greater increase in bank assets here than in other parts of the nation. The explanations of these events lie, it seems, in two forces: monetary policy and business conditions. At the beginning of the year a decline in industrial pro duction and national income prompted monetary authori ties to loosen the reins on bank credit. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, as well as other Federal Reserve Banks, lowered the rate charged on loans and advances from 2 percent to 1.5 percent, and about the middle of the year the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reduced reserve requirements against both demand and time deposits. These actions provided banks with reserves or made reserves available at low cost. In addition to these measures, the Federal Reserve carried on open market operations to maintain an adequate level of bank reserves. Assured of ample reserves, banks throughout the country increased their loans or investments. In the District, where loan demand was strong, banks added relatively more to loans than to investments. In the nation, where loan de mand was weak because of the greater business decline, investments increased more than loans. Regardless of how banks utilized their excess reserves, there was a corre sponding increase in deposits and thus in the money supply. Loans Show Large Increase Most of the increase in deposits in this District accom panied an expansion in loans, which rose rapidly during the year and by December were 12 percent above the yearearlier level. In the nation loans went up only 3 percent. In the District the increase far surpassed that for 1953 and equaled the average for the postwar years. Usually, total loans decline seasonally during the first half of the year; in 1954, however, they remained fairly stable until August, when the redemption of Commodity Credit Corporation Certificates of Interest caused a sharp decline. A strongerthan-usual seasonal rise that started in October boosted total loans to a new record of 2.7 billion dollars by the end of the year. At member banks in large cities in the District, most types of loans showed greater changes than those at com parable banks in the nation. In both areas, however, the amount of loans outstanding to brokers and dealers and to real estate firms registered significant gains. In the District, security loans, that is, loans to brokers and dealers and to individuals for purchasing or carrying securities, remained almost unchanged until the last two months of the year, when they rose 29 percent. In the nation, the gain was 17 percent. To help avoid an excessive use of credit for pur chasing or carrying securities, the Board of Governors early in 1955 raised margin requirements on such credit from 50 to 60 percent. G r o w t h a t D is t r ic t M e m b e r B a n k s s in c e J a n u a r y 1 9 5 3 b illio n d o lla r s Although commercial banks, as a rule, play only a small part in mortgage financing, the percentage change in realestate loans at member banks reflects fairly well the trend of mortgage lending. Between December 31, 1953, and December 31, 1954, total real-estate loans in the Sixth District increased 19 percent, with much of the rise origi nating in residential loans, particularly those with VA guarantees. Florida, Tennessee, and Louisiana led the Dis trict states in this gain. Consumer borrowing contributed greatly to the expan sion of loans in the District. Most of the increase in con sumer loans took place in the second half of the year; by the end of December, loans outstanding to consumers at all commercial banks in the District were 3 percent above the year-earlier figure. Business loans, also an important category of total loans because of their amount and sensitivity to changes in busi ness activity, increased 8 percent during the year. This trend contrasted sharply to loan behavior in the nation, where the total stayed below the 1953 level throughout the year. Borrowings by District manufacturing and mining concerns were heavy, and loans to construction firms and sales finance companies registered substantial gains. Cer tain areas of weakness, however, were noticeable. Because business firms did not maintain as high a level of inven tories in 1954 as they did in 1953, trade loans at selected banks rose somewhat less than in 1953, and loans to commodity dealers declined more. Investm ent Increase Smaller Since the demand for loans in other parts of the country was not as great as it was in the District, banks in the nation purchased relatively larger quantities of investments than did banks in this region. The investment increase at all . 9 . Total Deposits, Loans, and Investments at Member Banks Pe rce n t C h a n g e 1 9 5 4 fro m 1953, end of year d is t r ic t banks in the United States was 12 percent, compared with 10 percent at District banks. Most of both the increases came in August and October, when banks made sizable purchases of new Treasury issues. In addition to their purchases of Government issues, banks in each District state purchased sizable amounts of state and local government bonds. The supply of such securities was much greater than in 1953; the total issued by state and local governments in the District, for example, during the first ten and a half months of 1954 reached 473 million dollars, a gain of 9 percent over the amount for the same period in 1953. The largest increase in state and local bond issues— 212 percent— occurred in Alabama. Florida had a gain of 62 percent and Louisiana and Mississippi had increases of 15 and 6 percent, respectively. Georgia had a decline of 40 percent and Tennessee one of 79 percent. Deposits Expand M oney Supply When allowance is made for the rather large growth in the number of new member banks in this District, the rate of increase in deposits was only slightly greater than in the nation. At District member banks the gain of 529 million dollars in deposits raised the total to 7.8 billion dollars. Demand deposits rose to 6.3 billion dollars by year’s end, a gain of 6 percent over the comparable figure a year earlier. This increase was as large as that in 1952 and considerably larger than that in 1953. Despite stepped-up consumer spending, time deposits grew 14 percent. During the first half of the year total deposits changed little because seasonal declines in deposits of individuals and business firms and in interbank deposits were offset by gains in time and government deposits, particularly the latter. The United States Treasury, operating with some what more leeway under the higher debt limitation, in creased its balances at District member banks 17 percent. In 1953, such balances declined about 40 percent. Deposits of state and local governments increased 7 percent, com pared with 5.7 percent the year before. The buildup of state and local government deposits reflected sharp rises in operating expenditures and also in capital outlays, judging by the large gain in bonds issued in the six states. After June, however, total deposits increased at the rate of about 80 million dollars a month, reaching a new record by the end of the year. All types of deposits rose. Deposits Turn O ver Rapidly Not only was there an increase in the money supply in the District, but there was also a gain in the number of times the deposit dollar was spent. Bank debits, which are the charges made against checking accounts held by indi viduals, business firms, and states and political subdivisions, increased 5 percent in 1954. During December debits grew 14 percent, about twice the rate normally expected for this month. Changes in debits reflected fairly well economic changes; thus in 1954, some idea of the economic situation in individual states can be obtained from the debits picture. Florida had the greatest gain, 12 percent. Alabama, Geor gia, and Louisiana each had gains of 4 percent, followed by Tennessee with 2 percent. In Mississippi, debits for the year declined 2 percent. Whatever the reason— monetary policy, business condi tions, or other forces— 1954 will go down in the record book as a good year for banking. There were some fears earlier in the year that the business recession would cur tail the growth of commercial bank assets. The recession, however, was slight, although different parts of the country were affected to different degrees. The strongest repercus sion as far as commercial banks are concerned was the change in their earning assets. A comparison of earnings reports from District and United States banks will probably reveal the earnings at District banks increased more than at banks elsewhere. Another interesting development of the past year is that the Sixth District was able to maintain some immunity to the business downturn that in some areas of the country became quite serious. In 1954 the District loss in deposits to other parts of the country was about one-half as much as in 1949, another recession year, which indicates that the economy of this region is becoming more self-sustain ing. Another point that the financial developments of 1954 reveal is that the upturn in loans took place during the last half of the year and particularly during the last quarter. The more-than-seasonal increase in this period may be the herald of a new upswing in business. If such is the case another banking record may be established in 1955. W. M. D avis; C. S. O vermiller • 10 • Sixth District Statistics Instalment Cash Loans Lender Lenders Report ing Volume Percent Change Dec. 1954 from Nov. Dec. 1954 1953 Federal credit unions . . . State credit unions . . . Industrial banks........... Industrial loan companies . Small loan companies . . Commercial banks . . . . . . . . . . + 19 +4 + 23 +0 +31 + 18 . . . . . . 38 18 8 11 32 33 +25 +2 + 42 +33 —5 +30 Retail Furniture Store Operations Outstandings Percent Change Dec. 1954 from Nov. Dec. 1954 1953 +1 +1 +1 +2 +3 +0 +9 —5 +8 + 36 +3 +1 C o n d i t io n o f 2 7 M e m b e r B a n k s in L e a d i n g C it ie s (In Thousands of Dollars) Jan. 19 1955 Item Loans and investments— T o t a l ..................... Loans— N e t ................. Loans— G ro ss............... Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans . Loans to brokers and dealers in securities . . Other loans for purchasing or carrying securities . Real-estate loans . . . . Loans to banks . . . . Other loans ............... Investments— Total . . . . Bills, certificates, and notes.............. U. S. bonds .............. Other securities . . . . Reserve with F. R. Bank . Cash in vault............... Balances with domestic banks ..................... Demand deposits adjusted . Time deposits............... U. S. Gov’t deposits . . . Deposits of domestic banks . Borrowings.................. Dec. 15 1954 Jan. 20 1954 3,247,739 3,272,564 1,426,777 1,418,427 1,450,181 1,440,203 2,995,453 1,282,985 1,304,250 Percent Change Jan. 19, 1955, from Dec. 15 Jan. 20 1954 1954 832,838 835,172 766,994 —1 +1 +1 —0 21,839 23,045 11,428 —5 + 91 37,508 110,743 4,692 442,561 1,820,962 35,898 107,624 6,895 431,569 1,854,137 35,114 87,016 1,718 401,980 1,712,468 +4 +3 — 32 +3 +7 +27 * + 10 688,576 836,744 295,642 530,386 47,311 711,880 843,902 298,355 529,809 49,417 743,694 701,760 267,014 550,156 47,965 —3 —1 —1 +0 —7 + 19 + 11 —4 —1 253,409 2,333,334 604,197 58,286 767,266 35,475 279,199 2,349,869 606,378 115,831 765,707 255,224 2,226,176 572,331 62,293 716,801 15,900 —9 —1 +5 11,000 —2 —4 —1 —0 — 50 +0 * +8 + 11 + 11 +9 +6 +6 —6 +7 * *100 percent or over. D e p a r t m e n t S t o r e S a le s a n d In v e n t o r ie s * Percent Change Sales Inventories Dec. 31, 1954, from Dec. 1954 from i 2 Months Nov. Dec. 1954 from Nov. 30 Dec. 31 Place 1954 1954 1953 1953 1953 ALABAMA .................. +65 — 24 +3 —1 + 10 Birmingham............... +64 +5 —1 —20 +21 Mobile..................... + 57 — 1 +1 Montgomery............... + 74 +6 +1 —7 +4 — 19 FLORIDA .................. + 58 +11 —9 +4 Jacksonville.............. + 73 — 30 +3 M iam i..................... + 56 +7 — 18 —11 +23 Orlando.................. + 54 +2 +2 St. Ptrsbg-Tampa Area + 50 +0 +0 St. Petersburg . . . . +48 +8 — i3 +0 +1 Tampa.................. + 52 —5 —1 —21 +8 +2 +5 GEORGIA .................. + 57 +4 —20 +6 Atlanta**.................. +53 + 10 A u gu sta.................. +65 —3 —4 Columbus.................. + 66 +4 — 19 +2 +9 — 24 Macon..................... +63 +5 —5 +8 Rome** .................. +83 +2 —5 Savannah** ............... +61 +4 —1 +2 +5 — 16 +3 L O U IS IA N A ............... +42 +2 +6 — 28 Baton Rouge ............ +59 +1 — 14 +5 +3 New Orleans.............. +37 +1 — 27 —2 +2 M IS S IS S IP P I............... +60 +1 +4 —2 — 29 Jackson .................. +53 +1 —4 —3 Meridian**............... +67 — 28 +5 +0 +1 TENNESSEE ............... +65 —12 —6 — 31 —3 Bristol (Tenn. & Va.)** +89 Bristol-Kingsport —6 —3 Johnson City** . . . +90 —2 —2 Chattanooga ............... +74 +28 — 29 +6 + 10 Knoxville.................. +63 —9 —1 — 26 +6 Nashville................... +56 —22 +6 +2 +1 D IS T R IC T .................. +57 ^Reporting stores account for over 90 percent of total District department store sales. **ln order to permit publication of figures for this city, a special sample has been con structed that is not confined exclusively to department stores. Figures for nondepart ment stores, however, are not used in computing the District percent changes. Percent Change Dec. 1954 from Nov. 1954 Dec. 1953 +37 +5 +68 + 11 +36 + 14 + 19 +21 +1 +1 —10 +1 Number of Stores Reporting , . . 136 , . . 88 Instalment and other credit sales . . . 88 Accounts receivable, end of month . . . 106 Collections during month........... . . 106 Inventories, end of month . . . . . . 78 Item W h o le s a le S a le s and In v e n t o r ie s * Sales Percent change Dec. 1954, from No. of Nov. 30 No. of Dec. Type of Wholesaler Firms 1954 Firms 1953 —8 32 —11 Grocery, confectionery, meats . 37 5 4 +7 —1 Edible farm products. . . . Drugs, chems., allied prod. . . 19 +6 16 +5 8 +37 7 +31 i n — 25 Dry goods, apparel . . . . 9 + 10 4 + 18 Furniture, home furnishings . . 8 +21 Automotive.................. . 31 +4 30 +42 Electrical, electronic & 1 ? + 18 11 + 14 appliance goods........... Lumber, construction materials. 5 — 18 5 + 12 Machinery: equip. & supplies . 42 +1 35 + 4 Industrial................. . 18 17 +6 +1 Iron & steel scrap & waste materials................. , 5 — 15 4 +5 Inventories Percent change Dec. 31,1954, from No. of Nov. 30 No. of Dec. Firms 1954 Firms 1953 28 —2 27 —1 5 +2 4 +37 12 — 4 10 + 10 28 —1 28 —5 10 —4 9 + 17 24 9 —3 20 8 —4 —1 —2 *Based on information submitted by wholesalers participating in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Report issued by the Bureau of the Census. D e b its to In d iv id u a l D e m a n d D e p o s it (In Thousands of Dollars) Dec. 1954 Nov. 1954 A c co u n ts ______ Percent Change Dec. 1954 from Dec. Nov. Dec. 1953 1954 1953 ALABAMA 33,627 Anniston . . . 30,303 32,341 Birmingham . . 524,686 461,754 523,705 Dothan . . . . 19,763 18,087 20,404 Gadsden . . . 27,618 24,796 25,106 Mobile . . . . 185,674 201 502 193,621 Montgomery . . 120,470 109,226 101,668 Tuscaloosa* . . 39,358 34,691 34,947 FLORIDA Jacksonville . . 585,525 479,204 469,753 Miami . . . . 544,682 446,912 437,747 Greater Miami* 685,982 834,859 652,738 Orlando . . . 128,556 107,639 97,028 Pensacola . . . 63,285 54,305 60,607 St. Petersburg . 125,979 105,776 101,597 Tampa . . . . 254,247 210,219 219,638 West Palm Beach* 75,669 64,545 68,539 GEORGIA Albany . . . . 51,095 46,130 42,532 Atlanta. . . . 1,501,558 1,322,318 1,358,708 Augusta . . . 96,536 92,397 88,115 Brunswick . . . 15,867 13,504 15,006 Columbus. . . 95,349 82,549 84,103 Elberton . . . 4,792 5,359 5,310 Gainesville* . . 34,066 32,993 28,373 Griffin* . . . 16,979 14,019 16,127 Macon . . . . 103,205 89,908 90*439 Newnan . . . 12,088 12,482 11,959 Rome* . . . . 37,599 33,683 33,495 Savannah . . . 146,707 126,559 138,386 Valdosta . . . 23,280 21,448 20,343 LOUISIANA Alexandria* . . 52,615 49,268 50,875 Baton Rouge . 154,990 144,167 141,630 Lake Charles . 67,532 58,357 58,617 New Orleans . 1,099,793 1,010,928 1,018,635 MISSISSIPPI Hattiesburg . . 21,842 21,252 23,043 Jackson . . . 172,591 163,565 148,198 Meridian . . . 30,300 28,227 27,569 Vicksburg . . . 18,190 16*804 17,235 TENNESSEE Chattanooga 241,002 225,293 233,065 208,958 158,675 179,976 Knoxville . . 482,817 508,297 Nashville . . . 538,561 SIXTH DISTRICT 32 Cities . . 7,235,944 6,357,088 6,492,159 UNITED STATES 345 Cities . . 186,317,000 156,843,000 168,596,000 *Not included in Sixth District total. + 11 + 14 +9 + 11 +9 + 10 + 13 +22 +22 +22 +4 +0 —3 + 10 +4 + 18 + 13 from 1953 —2 +4 +3 —3 +5 +6 +2 +25 +24 +28 +32 +4 +24 + 16 + 10 + 13 +13 +14 +11 +20 +14 +11 + 4 +10 +6 +17 +16 +13 +12 +1 + 3 +20 +21 + 5 + 15 +14 —3 +1 +12 +12 +6 +16 +5 +5 —3 +7 +19 + 17 + 19 +21 + 17 +9 + 14 +7 +3 +9 +15 +8 + 16 +9 +8 +8 +6 +16 + 7 +10 +6 +8 +5 +11 +1 +12 +8 +4 +1 —5 + 15 —4 +5 +5 +5 —2 11 +6 +4 +8 + +4 +3 —1 —11 —1 +7 +32 + 12 +3 +16 +1 —2 +14 +11 +11 +5 +19 • 11 • +6 +4 +7 Sixth District Indexes 1 9 4 7 - 4 9 = 1 OO M a n u fa c t u r in g M a n u fa c t u r in g E m p lo y m e n t P a y r o lls Nov. 1954 UNADJUSTED District Total. ........... 114 Alabama. . ............ 103 Florida . . ............ 145 Georgia . . ............ 116 Louisiana . ............ 113 Mississippi . ............112 Tennessee . ............ 110 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED District Total..............114 Alabama. . ............ 106 Florida . . ............146 Georgia . . ............ 115 Louisiana . ............ 109 Mississippi. ........... I l l Tennessee . ............ 110 C o tto n C o n s tr u c t io n C o n s u m p t io n * * Oct. 1954 Nov. 1953 Nov. 1954 Oct. 1954 Nov. 1953 Dec. 1954 Nov. 1954 Dec. 1953 112 116r 107 139r 117r 117r 112r 115r 160 143 158r 140 191r 157r 163r 154r 161r 91 94 102 103 92r 92 165 159 166 153 156r 140r 184r 158 154 166 155 158 147 199 163 151 161 151 154 142r 194r 155 150 160 152 157r 145r 189r 155r 155r 150r 160r 104 135r 115 111 113r 110 112 105 140r 113 110 111 109 116r llOr 139r 116r 113r 110 115r 201 90 104 91 110 86 115 96 111 88r 92 100 92 Adjusted Year Dec. Nov. Nov. Dec. Dec. 1954 1954 1954 1954 1954 1953 154 128 135 127 233p DISTRICT SALES* . . 136p 164 131 135 241 137 Atlanta1 ............ 149 112 194p 127 110 113 Baton Rouge . . . . 117 114 121 215p 137 127 Birmingham . . . . 127p 127 140 135r 126 235 Chattanooga . . . . 133 109 127 lllr 188 107 Jackson ............... 115 114 116r 128 213p 122 p 119 Jacksonville . . . . 130 220 241p 154r 124 146r Knoxville............ 136p 127 150 226 236 121 125 M a c o n ............... 126 224 142 184 275p 126 159 M ia m i............... 156p 214r 119 121r 227 151 133 Nashville............ 129 206r 127 164 125r 217 New Orleans . . . . 136 131 234r 137 234 162 139r St. Ptrsbg-Tampa Area 139 142 124 215r 141 127r 205 122 Tam pa............... 121 140 124r 160 141r 126p 145 DISTRICT STOCKS* . 143p Ho permit publication of figures for this city, a special sample has been constructed that is not confined exclusively to department stores. Figures for nondepartment stores, however, are not used in computing the District index. ♦For Sixth District area only. Other totals for entire six states. ♦♦Daily average basis. Sources: Mfg. emp. and payrolls, state depts. of labor; cotton consumption, U. S. Bureau Census; construction contracts, F. W. Dodge Corp.; furn. sales, dept, store sales, turn over of dem. dep., FRB Atlanta; petrol, prod., U. S. Bureau of Mines; elec. power prod., Fed. Power Comm. Indexes calculated by this Bank. Reserve Bank Cities Branch Bank Cities mm District Boundaries — Branch Territory Boundaries ^ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System O • Dec. 1954 Nov. 1954 Dec. 1953 204 344 249 262 130 249 135 192 186 241 168 142 208 205 170 190 113 187 * / * * Dec. 1954 Nov. 1954 Dk . 1353 143p 159p 149p 150p 134p 109r 109 123r 114 136 150 140 140 135 112 124p lOOp 105p n ip 105p 98p 86p D e p a r tm e n t S t o r e S a le s a n d S t o c k s * * Unadjusted Dec. 1953 219 218 183 205 239r 181r 204r F u r n itu r e S to re S a le s C o n tra c ts 87 117 lOOr 107 109r 105 99 94r 99r 104r 98r 99 83 81r O t h e r D is t r ic t In d e x e s Dec. ________________________1954 Adjusted Nov. 1954 Construction contracts*............... Residential........................... Other ................................. Petrol, prod, in Coastal Louisiana and Mississippi** . 137 127 Furniture store stocks* . . . . 106 113r Turnover of demand deposits* . . 20.0 20.7 10 leading cities............... 20.7 21.2 Outside 10 leading cities . . . 17.2 16.6 Dec. 1953 Dec. 1954 279 314 253 145r 132 120 19.0 20.0 15.8 Unadjusted Dec. Nov. 1954 1953 184 200 164 214r 161r 228 102 21.0 22.2 17.5 129 119r 21.5 22.7 18.3 140r 115 20.0 21.4 16.1 Nov. 1954 Oct. 1954 Nov. 1953 Elec. power prod., t o t a l* * ............ Mfg. emp. by type Apparel........................ 142 Chemicals....................... 129 Fabricated metals.............. 151 Food............................. 115 Lbr., wood prod., furn. & fix. . 84 Paper and allied prod........... 147 Primary metals................. 94 Textiles........................ 94 Trans, equip..................... 163 Nov. 1954 207 Oct. 1954 206 Nov. 1953 174 142r 128r 151r 113 85r 148r 96r 93r 165r 147r 125r 164r 112 r S8r 145r 145 131 154 144r 131r 153r 114 84r 148r 95r 94r 163r 150r 128r 167r 118r 88r 147r 102r 97 169r r Revised p Preliminary 101 96 164r 121 84 148 94 95 168
@FedFRASER