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A N um ber 1 A t la n t a , G e o r g ia , J a n u a r y 3 1 , 1 9 4 1 V o lu m e X X V I PER CENT DECREASE V PEH CENT INCREASE o f B u s in e s s C o n d itio n s a s B u s in e s s In d ic a t o r s R e t a il S in c e t h e ir e s ta b lis h m e n t o v e r 2 5 y e a r s S ix t h D is t r ic t tr a d e a n d in d u s t r ia l a c t iv c o n tin u e d a t a h ig h le v e l in T r a n s it s a n d d e b it s R e c o n n a is s a n c e d i s t r i c t S u m m a ry it y t l a n t a W h o le a J m D ecem ik le s th e F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Banks h ave C o n tra c ts b e r . D e p a rtm e n t s to r e s a le s re c o r d e d th e u s u a l la r g e in c r e a s e o v e r N o v e m b e r b e - | f o r s u c h n o n m e m b e r b a n k s a s c h o o s e to c a u s e o f h o lid a y b u s in e s s , a n d w h o le s a le a v a il d is t r ib u t io n i t u s u a lly d e c lin e d s lig h t ly d o e s. N e w h ig h C o t t o n C oInronnn l E ilummfi l E Enfif] le s s th a n le v e ls w e re h o u se P ig I r o n P jj§ P ||§ c t io n re a c h e d in th e r a t e o f p r o d u c tio n o f c o a l C o al a t th e N o vem b er p e a k, and D ecem b er h ad tw ic e in th e been t h ir t e e n exceed ed y e a rs fo r E m p lo jjj|m e n t th e in c r e a s in g in o n ly d le d 30 d e c lin e , d e p a rtm e n t s to r e s a le s re c o rd e d in fo r f o r th e a v e r a g e . T h is is th e at 129 10 a d ju s te d p e r c e n t o f th e h ig h e s t le v e l re a c h e d by in d e x 1 9 3 5 -1 9 3 9 th e a d ju s te d in d e x in D e c e m b e r o f a n y y e a r in th e s e r ie s w h ic h b e g in s w it h 1 9 1 9 . F o r th e y e a r 1 9 4 0 d e p a rtm e n t s to r e s a le s in t r ic t w e re 9 p e r c e n t g r e a t e r th a n in s e ttle m e n t banks of in t e r - c it y th ro u g h o u t th e 1 9 3 9 c h e c k s to a t o t a l o f $ 2 5 6 b illio n s p a s s e d th ro u g h by th e F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank of 20 30 ic e th e r e c o r d s o f e a c h B a n k h a v e a c c u m u la te d as an in t e r e s t in g b y - p ro d u c t. T h e s e fig u r e s , th e m o n t h ly t o t a ls o f t h e d o lla r v o lu m e o f t r a n s it o p e r a tio n s f o r s e a s o n a l f a c t o r th e D e c e m b e r r e m a in e d par I n th e p ro c e s s o f p e r fo r m in g t h is s e r v 10 Sixth Distict Statistics for December 1940 compared with December 1939 D e c e m b e r ju s t e q u a l to th e u s u a l s e a s o n a l m o v e m e n t, s o t h a t a f t e r a llo w a n c e 20 S y s te m ’ s A t la n t a . D em and 13 th e a n d a v o lu m e o f $ 1 2 b illio n s w a s h a n B an k Lo ans N o vem b er b y of th e t r a n s it d e p a rtm e n ts o f th e 1 2 B a n k s , Bank w h ic h p e r c e n t, w h e n th e re is u s u a lly a s m a ll a f u r t h e r g a in v a lu e Pa D is t r ic t f ig u r e s a r e a v a ila b le . ► A fte r th e b e tw e e n c o u n t r y . D u r in g v a lu e o f c o n s t r u c t io n c o n tr a c ts a w a rd e d in fo r ch ecks on a n d p ig ir o n , t e x t ile a c t iv it y w a s m a in ta in e d th e m s e lv e s c le a r a n c e f a c ilit ie s , a n e ffic ie n t c le a r in g 1939 and t h is D is th e a n n u a l in d e x f o r th e y e a r , a t 1 2 1 p e r c e n t o f th e 1 9 3 5 - 1 9 3 9 a v e r a g e , w a s h ig h e r th a n f o r a n y o th e r y e a r in s in g le o f 1 9 2 0 . F o r th e th e s e r ie s w it h th e t h is B a n k , a r e s h o w n in th e a c c o m p a n y in g c h a r t . ► T h e u s e fu ln e s s o f th e s e d a ta lie s in t h e ir c a p a c it y to m e a s u r e , r o u g h ly , th e o v e r - a ll v o lu m e o f b u s in e s s a c t iv it y in th e S ix t h D is t r ic t . I n t h is re g a rd th e y a re s im ila r to th e m o re f a m ilia r b a n k d e b it f ig u r e s , a n d f o r c o m p a r a t iv e p u rp o s e s th e b a n k d e b its o f 2 6 D is t r ic t c it ie s , u n a d ju s t e d f o r s e a s o n a l v a r i a t io n , a r e s h o w n o n th e s a m e c h a r t . a s a w h o le , th e S o m e n in e - te n th s o f a l l b u s in e s s t r a n s a c t io n s a r e e ffe c te d b y 1 p e r cen t o ve r th e t r a n s f e r o f b a n k d e p o s its , a n d , c o n s e q u e n tly , s o m e n in e - N o v e m b e r a n d w a s 6 p e r c e n t a b o v e th a t f o r D e c e m b e r 1 9 3 9 . te n th s o f a l l b u s in e s s t r a n s a c t io n s a r e a c c o u n te d in th e c o m e x c e p tio n B o a r d ’ s a d ju s t e d W h o le s a le t r a d e in d e x in th e fo r c o u n try D e c e m b e r ro s e D is t r ic t d e c lin e d 7 p e r c e n t in D e- p u t a tio n o f b a n k d e b it s , a n d a s lig h t ly le s s e r p r o p o r t io n in c e m b e r , a d ro p s lig h t ly le s s th a n u s u a lly o c c u r s a t t h a t t im e , thQ #c p jp p u t a t ip ji# o f in t e r - c it y a n d w a s 7 p e r c e n t la r g e r th a n in R & s^ rV e « B $ & k s ; » rl3 iQ rffj> re , b e c a u s e o f th e m a g n itu d e o f th e D e c e m b e r 1 9 3 9 . F o r th e # ^ J on Page, 3 \ Continued s a ria p fe * p r o v id e d , I* ljfe e a u s tK o f c le a r in g s th ro u g h th e th e F e d e r a l a u t o m a t ic a lly p r o v id e d Billions oi Dollars *. : 1.4 •t : W t • • • •• • • *•* . • . ••• • i~: ••• • • •• V . . . • , • • •• • - . •“ •• •• • • • :* * ! • • .• • • * z ' • *. . • \ i . “ .......... I - * : * : : / - X ••• • j • : :::• • • • ••• 1.2 3*4 T R A N S IT S , 1.0 i ti v• U • u \ / v V 1 . . BANK D E B IT S , \ r j \ k \j UN ADJUST 2 3 C IT IE S - ^ , . r E D ■». \ w 1g ^ - V - V i A / A/ /I /•• V » lw> " v ■r~/ V • \ A /\A ..J w i J ' T R A N S IT S , ADJU STEC 1935 1936 1 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1937 1939 1939 1940 2 M o n t h l y R e v ie w o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e d a n k o f A t l a n t a f o r J a n u a r y 1 H t condition of federal reserve bank of atlanta (In Millions oi Dollars) Per Cent Change Ian.15,1941 from D?^o18 ^1940? — 50 — 90 + "9 - *9 +9 — 10 — 1 + 21 +10 +17 ~ *i +96 +1 + 15 + 3 + 26 ... *ai94i5 Di94o18 ^ 94017 Bills discounted....... .......$ .02 $ .04 $ .2 UdS3Slliritie“ ces: ::; :: 91.1 83.8 100.4 Total bills and securities........ 91.5 84.2 101.4 F. R. note circulation............... 193.3 194.9 159.2 Member bank reserve deposits... 249.6 226.1 213.0 Forei^b«5^^*it?^.,lt*....! 27.1 * 27.1 i4io 7.. 7. 7 7 7 : 294.5 273:4 256:o Total reserves......................... 401.6 390.7 318.8 Industrialadvancecommitments......... .01 .1 ____ conditio* of 2? M TO l^BA^jm )sE L E C T E D x m E S Jan.15,1941 from Iai94i5 D?fio18 J<19407 llio1 *1940 Loans and Investments—Total... $691.0 £713.2 5635.6 — 3 + 9 Loans—Total.......................... 367.4 373.8 316.2 — 2 + 16 Commercial, industrial and agricultural loans............... 196.4 196.6 174.8 — 0 + 12•: 3.6 3.9 + 11 + 3 Open market paper............... 4.0 ^iifwOTrities.” f.**1.*13. .. 7.6 9.3 5.3 — 18 + 43 °a»d carrying s^iities5..... li.i 11.2 li.i — l . Real estate loans................... 33.4 33.7 31.2 — l + 7 Loans to banks..................... 1.4 1.9 .6 — Z6 + 133 Other loans......................... 113.6 117.6 89.2 — 3 + 27 Inue^^^obUgktioM.77.7777 H6.‘i 157.2 147.4 — Ottor9ae^rities obligations ' • jjgg jjgy jqqq “ | + l| Reserve with F. R. Bank... ...... 153.1 143.1 128.7 + 7 + 19 16.5 13.3 — 10 + 11 Cash in vault.......................... 14.8 Balances with domestic banks... 218.6 196.8 206.6 + 11 + 6 li:! m2 lii:? -o + *i u. s. Government deposits........ 29.1 Jfo.3 44.5 — 28 — 35 Deposits of domestic oanks....... 342.5 330.0 292.1 + 4 + 17 Borrowings.................................... .... .... ... ••■ DEBITS TO individual accounts (b»Thousand*ot Dollars) ^ Pe^e^Cfoaige aiabemu 1940 1940 1939 Nov.1940Dec.1939 Birmingham............... $ 130,538 $ 107,657 $ 111.884 + 21 + 17 3,808 3,430 3,214 + 11 + 18 Dothan...................... Mobile...................... 54,458 46,112 46,955 + 18 + 16 Montgomery.............. 27,667 29,363 25,717 — 6 + 8 Jacksonville............... 122,420 93,469 96,375 + 31 + 27 Pteneacoia. 7 12797 fi‘,059 10,357 +16 +24 Tampa....’............... 4i,'468 38'809 35',473 + 7 +17 .................................. Atlanta...................... Braunrtck.".’. ’.I". Elbarton18.................. Macon..'.’. .....:.:....: Newnan..................... Savannah.................. Valdosta................... Louisiana New Orleans.............. MISSISSIPPI Hattiesburg............... Jackson..................... Vicksburg................. _TO-rM O__ TEN |V £SoE£ Chattanooga.............. Knoxville................... Nashville.................. 6.945 291.420 ^615 6,454 5,913 251.918 ^,'983 2i'663 260,866 2f's62 22^006 2,856 jg|66 *. 2,498 39,953 # s£43j • 33,987 4,780 ,*.$,4w 4,567 *• • *.*•• 259, + + + •. 16 23 7 . + 17 , A s id e , f ™ m g o v e rn m e n t e x p e n d it u r e s , t h e p r in c ip a l d if - + 12 ference between the debits and transit series is that the former +21 consists in a sample of relatively large towns, while the latter £7*7 includes all flows through this. Bank and its branches to the 14 .‘account of large and small towns alike. 1A • .• 6 . + 18 • .* . •1(2}. A more particular illustration of the greater represen+ 5 •. • •» j. • . tatie?k^> %_government expenditures in the transit series occurs 30,6(73 . . .38,209 „ , js«6J £* * ?on23i If.*1; ioT • distfjbilted by checks upon the government’s Reserve • • •>: • • •* ’ •*. ; • *BartK account caused the transit data to rise immediately, J : * . # . . . . .^ 62,243 47,293 51,589 + 32 + 2r wnilfe the debits data were affected later, and over a greater 41,907 33,551 40,531 + 25 + 3 , c_ ^ U J u l 109,410 92,350 106,349 + 18 + 3 number oi months, as the bonus receivers drew checks upon sixth district their commercial bank accounts. 26 Cities................... 1,434,581 1,236,227 1,316,626 + 16 + 9 . . . .. . , . , . united states ^ While those who criticize both debit and clearings series as 274 Cities.................. 46,673,000 39,088,000 43,447,000 + 19 + 7 indicators of business activity are unquestionably correct in _______________________________ . _________________________________ pointing out that they contain and are importantly influenced by transactions having no real significance in thfe business pic(C iti« ffw ™ DJolidexe?l?e™om^ied) ture, each of the series does have interest and utility, and Sales for December compared with : because of the greater representation in the transit series of Nov.1940 Dec.1939 N°v.i94G Dec.1939 expanding importance of government in the economy, it is Chattanooga.... +57 +5 Macon........... +73 +7 '^ ^ ° .. . . . . . Jackson........... +45 +17 Montgomery... +56 + 6 possible that the decade picture provided by the transit series jfoioxviUe!1.67.7. +.83 + 11 Tampa........... + 46 + 13 is more nearly in accordance with the true situation. 30,028* ^’us + 8 + 16 22$77 ..+ . 2! 5;§t| weighting of a ll transactions in terms of dollar volumes, be&, j cause oi the numerous geographic breakdowns at hand, and because of the easy and current availability of the data, bank debits and bank clearings have frequently been advocated and used as indicators of business activity. As such, each series has merit, and it w ill be noticed in the ’ . ’ _ chart that each follows quite well what we know to have been the general pattern of business in the past decade, but their failure stems from the same root as their advantages. That is to say, each is too all inclusive, counting alike business trans. .. .i. . . actions that result m the creation of income, and transactions, Such as security purchases, and the transference of existing assets, that have little significant connection with the creation of current income, and, because of being expressed in dollar values, each fails to distinguish movements in physical pro, t • l l duction from movements m price levels. , ,. , . . , ► in comparing debits and transits it w ill be noticed that: (1) The most striking difference between the two series is that during the period of the chart the transit data have grown remarkably relative to the debits data. This relative growth , 1 ■ %r . . i r i ■ cannot be accounted for m any important growth of banks utilizing the par clearance system during the decade. Rather, the disappearing difference between the two is chiefly to be explained by the growth of federal government expenditures , , 1 . P ■ , , , & * . e during the period, and the much greater representation of these expenditures in the transit series. Debits to government accounts at commercial banks are included in the debit series, . and such growth as has occurred in the expenditures of governmental accounts at commercial banks is reflected in the series, but the government draws far more heavily and more frequently against its deposits at the Reserve Banks; therefore, the expanding expenditures of the federal government are r■ , t . i . . more adequately measured in the transit series. That it is largely the growth of federal expenditures that accounts for the diminishing spread of the two series can be shown by correlating the difference between District debits and transits with government expenditures. M o n t h l y R e v ie w o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f A t l a n t a f o r J a n u a r y 1 W 1 A n n o u n cem en t W e a r e p le a s e d to a n n o u n c e t h a t th e P e o p le s a n d U n io n B a n k , L e w is b u r g , T e n n e s s e e , w a s a d m itte d F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s te m c a p it a l s to c k to m e m b e rs h ip in th e o n J a n u a r y 2 , 1 9 4 1 . T h is b a n k h a s o f $ 7 5 ,0 0 0 , s u r p lu s $ 7 5 ,0 0 0 , and u n d iv id e d p r o fit s m o re th a n $ 1 4 ,0 0 0 . P r e s id e n t T . L . C a th e y is a c t iv e ly in c h a rg e o f it s o p e r a t io n s , a n d is a s s is te d b y H e n r y M c K a y , C a s h ie r a n d T r u s t O ffic e r , P a u l W o o d w a r d , A s s is t a n t C a s h ie r , a n d F r a n k H o u s to n , A s s is t a n t T r u s t O ffic e r . M r . S . E . C r u t c h e r is C h a ir m a n o f th e B o a r d a n d D r . R . B . B e r r y a n d M r . C la u d e M o n tg o m e ry a r e V ic e P r e s id e n t s . T h e B o a r d o f D ir e c t o r s in c lu d e s , in a d d it io n to C h a ir m a n an d P r e s id e n t s B e r r y V ic e B ro w n , T . L . C r u t c h e r , P r e s id e n t C a t h e y , and C o le m a n , J . P . M o n tg o m e ry , M e s s r s . R . L . F it z p a t r ic k , E d g a r L a m b e rt, W . H . M c L e a n , a n d C . A . P ic k e n s , a l l o f L e w is b u r g . C o n tin u ed fro m p age 1 y e a r , w h o le s a le s a le s w e re u p 4 p e r c e n t. y C o n s t r u c t io n c o n t r a c t s a w a rd e d in th e D is t r ic t ro s e 5 5 p e r c e n t fro m N o v e m b e r to D e c e m b e r a n d w e re n e a r ly tw o a n d o n e - h a lf t im e s th e t o t a l f o r D e c e m b e r 1 9 3 9 . B o th r e s id e n t ia l a n d n o n - r e s id e n t ia l a w a r d s in c r e a s e d in th e s a m e a m o u n t p e r c e n ta g e w is e , a n d D ecem b er b y ab o ut b o th w e re m o re th a n d o u b le th e f ig u r e s f o r D e c e m b e r a y e a r a g o . F o r th e y e a r 1 9 4 0 t o t a l a w a r d s in th e d is t r ic t w e r e 4 8 p e r c e n t la r g e r th a n in 1 9 3 9 , r e s id e n t ia l a w a r d s w e re 4 1 p e r c e n t la r g e r , a n d n o n - r e s id e n t ia l c o n tr a c t s w e re u p 5 3 a w a rd e d h ave been p e r c e n t. D is t r ic t f ig u r e s o f c o n tr a c ts c o m p ile d s in c e th e b e g in n in g o f 1927, a n d th e 1 9 4 0 t o t a l o f a b o u t $ 4 8 0 m illio n is th e la r g e s t a n n u a l t o t a l f o r a n y y e a r in th e s e r ie s . T e x t ile a c t iv it y in th e D is t r ic t , re fle c te d in th e c o n s u m p tio n o f c o tto n b y m ills in A la b a m a , G e o r g ia , a n d T e n n e s s e e , c o n t in u e d a t th e p e a k le v e l re a c h e d in N o v e m b e r a n d w a s 1 4 p e r c e n t a b o v e D e c e m b e r 1 9 3 9 . M il ls in th e s e th r e e s ta te s c o n s u m e d 2 .7 m illio n b a le s o f c o tto n in 1 9 4 0 , a g a in o f 9 p e r c e n t o v e r 1 9 3 9 , a n d a n e w re c o r d f o r th e s e s ta t e s . N ew p ig h ig h ir o n in le v e ls w e re a ls o A la b a m a , in re a c h e d in D ecem b er an d th e in p r o d u c t io n th e of year 1940. D e c e m b e r o u tp u t ro s e s lig h t ly o v e r th e N o v e m b e r p e a k , a n d t o t a l o u tp u t in 1 9 4 0 w a s 2 0 p e r c e n t la r g e r th a n in 1 9 3 9 , a n d th e la r g e s t o n r e c o r d . y E m p lo y m e n t a n d p a y r o lls in ro s e 3 p e r c e n t a n d 5 th e s ix s ta te s o f th e D is t r ic t p e r c e n t, r e s p e c t iv e ly , in D e c e m b e r. N u m b e r o f w o r k e r s w a s 2 p e r c e n t la r g e r th a n in 1 9 3 9 w h ile p a y r o lls w e re u p th e r e h a s b e e n in D ecem b er 9 p e r c e n t. S in c e m id s u m m e r th e s e s ta te s a g a in o f 1 5 p e r c e n t in th e n u m b e r o f w o r k e r s e m p lo y e d , a n d a n in c r e a s e o f 2 3 p e r c e n t in p a y r o lls . T h is is a ra th e r d e fin it e in d ic a t io n th a t m a n y w o r k e r s , a lr e a d y n u m b e re d a m o n g th e e m p lo y e d , a r e p u t tin g in m o re h o u r s a n d c o n s e q u e n tly e a r n in g m o re m o n e y , th a n t h e y w e re s ix m o n th s a g o . ^ T o t a l lo a n s a n d in v e s t m e n ts a t w e e k ly r e p o r t in g m em ber b a n k s in th e D is t r ic t h a v e d e c lin e d s o m e w h a t s in c e th e m id d le o f D e c e m b e r. T h e re d u c t io n h a s b e e n la r g e ly in in G o v e rn m e n t s e c u r it ie s a n d in c o m m e r c ia l, in d u s t r ia l, a n d c lin e d o n ly s lig h t ly . in v e s tm e n ts “ a l l o th e r” lo a n s . L o a n s f o r a g r ic u lt u r a l p u rp o s e s h ave de 3 SIXTH DISTRICT BUSINESS INDICATORS Indexes _(1923-1925 average — 100, except as noted) Adjusted Unadjusted Dec. Nov. Dec.Dec. Nov. Dec. 1940 1940 1939 1940 1940 1939 RETAIL SALES* (1935-1939Av. = 100) 223 141 206 DISTRICT (47 Firms).................. 129 129 119 Atlanta..................................... .....................230 151 207 Birmingham.............................. .....................223 147 202 Nashville................................. ...................... 213 128 195 New Orleans..................................................206 136 202 RETAIL STOCKS DISTRICT (22Firms).................. 80 85 73 72 94 65 Atlanta.....................................158 166 135 138 188 117 Birmingham.............................. 74 79 67 68 89 61 Nashville................................. 56 63 49 50 70 44 New Orleans............................. 65 68 64 58 74 57 WHOLESALE SALES TOTAL..................................... ......................69 74 68 Groceries.......................................................50 52 53 Dry Goods......................................................50 69 44 Hardware...................................................... 123 125 103 Drugs...................................... .....................119 115 131 CONTRACTS AWARDED DISTRICT................................. ..................... 156 101 65 Residential..................................................... 150 99 71 Others..................................... ..................... 159 102 61 44 Alabama.................................. ...................... 76 116 Florida..................................... .....................101 85 57 Georgia.........................................................199 169 102 Louisiana................................. ..................... 262 54 56 140 Mississippi..................................................... 941 154 Tennessee...................................................... 69 95 67 BUILDING PERMITS 20CITIES....................................................... 47 49 71 Atlanta.......................................................... 47 21 17 Birmingham.............................. ......................21 33 15 Jacksonville.............................. ...................... 60 111 74 23 18 Nashville.................................. ..................... 31 New Orleans...................................................51 42 23 PIG IRON PRODUCTION* Alabama.................................. ..................... 137 134 128r COAL PRODUCTION (1935-1939Av. = 100) TWO STATES........................... 132 120 125 143 129 136 141 Alabama.................................. ..................... 148 135 Tennessee......................................................130 117 123 COTTON CONSUMPTION* THREE STATES...............................................217 217 191 Alabama.................................. ..................... 266 266 230 179 Georgia.........................................................200 200 Tennessee...................................................... 184 185 151 EMPLOYMENT (1932Av. = 100) SIX STATES.............................. .....................144 140 142 Alabama.................................. ......................157 152 146 Florida..................................... ..................... 117 104 121 156 Georgia.........................................................159 157 Louisiana.......................................................131 131 134 119 Mississippi..................................................... 117 113 Tennessee...................................................... 138 136 138 PAYROLLS (1932Av. = 100) SIX STATES................................................... 212 202 194 Alabama.................................. ..................... 297 278 245 Florida..................................... ..................... 119 104 106 Georgia................................... ..................... 235 227 215 Louisiana.......................................................163 164 161 Mississippi..................................................... 153 145 153 Tennessee...................................................... 191 184 183 Nov. Oct. Nov. ELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION* 1940 1940 1939 SIX STATES...................................................445 434r 395 Alabama.................................. ......................500 507 395 Florida.......................................................... 568 551 554 Georgia.........................................................240 208r 216 Louisiana....................................................... 665 651 662 Mississippi.....................................................102 118r 86 Tennessee...................................................... 475 459 334 Statistics (000 Omitted) Dec. Nov. Dec. Year to Date COMMERCIAL FAILURES 1940 1940 1939 1940 1939 Number(Actual—notlOOO's) 33 38 36 634 678 Liabilities....................... $ 363 $ 744 $ 437 $ 6,975 $ 7,843 Nov. Oct. Nov. Year to Date FARM INCOME** 1940 1940 1939 1940 1939 SIX STATES................... 109,193 136,273 92,216 721,887 736,837 Alabama........................ 18,890 24,460 13,421 105,918 103,113 Florida.......................... 12,397 6,022 7,911 99,465 112,813 Georgia......................... 18,806 34,201 14,496 156,242 138,227 Louisiana....................... 17,831 17,086 19,281 104,369 118,070 Mississippi..................... 23,148 34,440 23,395 132,956 147,752 Tennessee...................... 18,121 20,064 13,712 122,937 116,862 ‘Indexes of retail sales, electric power and pig iron production, and of cotton consumption are on a daily average basis. ‘‘Includes Government benefit payments, r = Revised. M o n t h l y R e v ie w o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e t a n k o f A t l a n t a f o r J a n u a r y 1 9 4 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Prepared by the Board of Governors ol the Federal Beserve System n d u s t r ia l a c tiv ity co n tin u e d a t a h ig h ra te in D e ce m b e r an d th e fir s t h a lf o f Ja n u a ry an d d istrib u tio n o f co m m o d ities to co n su m e rs w a s m a in ta in e d in la rg e v o lu m e . T h e re w as som e in c re a se in w h o le sa le co m m o d ity p ric e s. I P r o d u c tio n Index oi physical volume ol production, adjusted lor seasonal variation, 1935-1939 average = 100. By months. January 1934 to December 1940. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS Indexes ol value ol sales and stocks, adjusted lor seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average = 100. By months, January 1934 to December 1940. V o lu m e o f in d u s tria l p ro d u ctio n show ed lit t le ch an g e fro m N o vem b er to D e ce m b e r, alth o u g h u s u a lly th e re is a d e c lin e a t th is se aso n , an d co n se q u e n tly th e B o a rd ’ s a d ju ste d in d e x ro se fu rth e r b y fo u r p o in ts to 136 p e r ce n t o f th e 1935-39 a ve ra g e . S te e l in g o t p ro d u ctio n w as su sta in e d a t ab o u t 96 p e r c e n t o f c a p a c ity . N ew o rd e rs fo r ste e l co n tin u e d la rg e , acco rd in g to tra d e re p o rts, an d w e re e q u a l to o r s lig h tly g re a te r th an , p ro d u c tio n ; co n se q u e n tly th e vo lu m e o f u n fille d o rd e rs re m a in e d a t ab o u t th e p e a k le v e l re a ch e d in N o vem b er. In th e firs t h a lf o f Ja n u a ry ste e l o u tp u t in c re a se d to aro u n d 9 8 p e r ce n t o f c a p a c ity . A c tiv ity in th e m a c h in e ry , a ir c r a ft , an d sh ip b u ild in g in d u s trie s co n tin u e d to in cre a se s h a rp ly an d w o rk in g fo rc e s w e re e xp an d e d fu rth e r. In th e se lin e s an d in som e o th e rs, su ch a s w o o l te x tile s , u n fille d o rd e rs a re e x c e p tio n a lly la rg e , o w in g in th e m ain to th e d efen se p ro g ram . A u to m o b ile p ro d u ctio n d e c lin e d so m ew h at m o re th a n se a so n a lly in D e ce m b e r fo llo w in g an u n u su a lly la rg e vo lu m e o f o u tp u t in N o vem b er an d O cto b e r. R e t a il sid e s o f n ew c a rs d u rin g th e la s t q u a rte r o f 1940 w e re ab o u t o n e-fo u rth g re a te r th a n in th e co rre sp o n d in g p e rio d la s t y e a r an d used c a r sa le s a lso w e re la rg e . In th e n o n fe rro u s m e ta ls in d u strie s a c tiv ity in cre a se d fu rth e r in D e cem b er an d o u tp u t o f lu m b e r an d ce m e n t show ed le s s th an jthe u su a l se aso n al d e c lin e . T e x tile p ro d u ctio n , w h ic h in N o vem b er h a d exceed ed th e p re v io u s re co rd le v e ls re ach e d a y e a r ag o, co n tin u e d a t th is h ig h ra te in D e ce m b e r, n o t sh o w in g th e u su a l se a so n a l de cre a se . A t co tto n an d ra y o n m ills , a c tiv ity in c re a se d so m ew h at fu rth e r an d a t w o o l te x tile m ills o u tp u t w a s su sta in e d a t p e a k ra te s . In th e sh o e in d u s try , w h e re o u tp u t h ad been in re d u ce d vo lu m e d u rin g th e firs t te n m o n th s o f th e y e a r, th e re w a s le s s th a n d ie u su a l se aso n al d e c lin e in N ovem b er an d D e ce m b e r a n d , on a se a so n a lly a d ju ste d b a s is , p ro d u c tio n w as clo se to e a rlie r p e a k le v e ls . A t m in e s b itu m in o u s c o a l p ro d u ctio n d e c lin e d le s s th a n se a so n a lly an d a n th ra c ite p ro d u ctio n in c re a se d . O u tp u t o f c ru d e p e tro le u m show ed a re d u ctio n in D e ce m b e r o w in g m a in ly to th e fa c t th a t w e lls in T e x a s w e re clo se d fo r te n d ays a s co m p ared w ith n in e d ays in N o vem b er. O u tp u t o f m e ta ls co n tin u e d in la rg e vo lu m e . V a lu e o f c o n stru ctio n c o n tra c t a w a rd s, a s re p o rte d b y th e F . W . D od ge C o rp o ra tio n , in cre a se d co n tra se a so n a lly in D e ce m b e r, re fle c tin g fu rth e r sh a rp in c re a s e s in a w a rd s fo r d efen se c o n stru ctio n an d p riv a te n o n re sid e n tia l b u ild in g . C o n tra c ts fo r p riv a te re s id e n tia l b u ild in g d e c lin e d b y som ew h at le s s th a n th e u su a l se a so n a l am o u n t. D is tr ib u tio n D is trib u tio n o f co m m o d ities to co n su m ers in cre a se d m ore th a n se a so n a lly in D e ce m b e r. D e p artm e n t an d v a rie ty sto re sa le s show ed th e cu sto m a ry sh a rp e xp a n sio n d u rin g th e C h ristm a s seaso n an d sa le s a t m a il-o rd e r h o uses ro se m ore th a n is u su a l a t th is tim e o f y e a r. F re ig h t-c a r lo a d in g s show ed a se aso n al d e c lin e fro m N o vem b er to D e ce m b e r. S h ip m e n ts o f fo re st p ro d u cts an d m isce lla n e o u s fre ig h t d ecre ase d le s s th a n se a so n a lly , w h ile ore lo a d in g s, w h ic h h ad been u n u su a lly la rg e in N o ve m b e r, d e clin e d s h a rp ly . W h o le s a le C o m m o d ity P r ic e s U. S. Department oi Commerce estimates oi the amount oi income payments to individuals, adjusted lor seasonal variation. By months, January 1934 to December 1940. B a n k C r e d it MONEY RATES IN NEW YORK CITY PC* CENT Pen CENT 4 T R EA S JRY BONOS i an» oven; uY R ESERV E BAMIK (COUNT IM ■E . I — m u m MY MOTES (* • * VtAM) UJ 1934 T H U . JURY B IL L S P \ A ( « ur m u e s ) k r t - 1939 1936 1937 1938 1999 JV 1940 F o r w e e k s e n d in g J a n u a ry 6, 1934, to J a n u a r y 11, 1941. B a s ic co m m o d ity p ric e s g e n e ra lly in cre a se d fro m th e m id d le o f D e ce m b e r to th e m id d le o f Ja n u a ry , fo llo w in g lit t le ch an g e d u rin g th e p re ce d in g fo u r w e e k s. C u rre n tly th e se p ric e s a re s u b s ta n tia lly above th e le v e l p re v a ilin g la s t su m m e r. In c re a se s in th e p a st m onth w e re m ost m a rk e d fo r fo o d stu ffs, e s p e c ia lly h o g s, p o rk , la r d , an d co tto n seed o il, b u t th e re w e re ad van ce s a lso in a n u m b e r o f in d u s tria l m a te ria ls , p a rtic u la rly p ig iro n , co tto n , co tto n goods, p a in t m a te ria ls , an d h id e s. S te e l sc ra p p ric e s , a fte r in c re a s in g d u r in g m ost o f th e p e rio d , su b se q u e n tly d e clin e d an d lu m b e r p rid e s a lso d ecreased som ew hat fro m th e s h a rp ly ad van ced p e a k re a ch e d in N o vem b er. T o ta l lo a n s an d in ve stm e n ts a t re p o rtin g m em ber b a n k s in 101 le a d in g c itie s co n tin u e d , to in cre a se d s u b s ta n tia lly d u rin g th e s ix w e e k s e n d in g Ja n u a ry 8 , re fle c tin g p rin c ip a lly in c re a se s in h o ld in g s o f U n ite d S ta te s G o ve rn m e n t o b lig a tio n s a t N ew Y o rk C ity b a n k s. C o m m e rcia l lo a n s ro se som ew h at fu rth e r w h ile lo a n s to N e w Y o rk s e c u rity b ro k e rs and d e a le rs, w h ic h h ad in cre a se d in Decem ber^ su b se q u e n tly d e clin e d so m ew h at. E x c e s s re se rv e s, a fte r d e c lin in g d u rin g th e firs t h a lf o f D e ce m b e r, h ave sin c e in cre a se d to ab o u t $ 6 ,9 0 0 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 . T h e in c re a se re fle cte d re d u ctio n s in T re a s u ry d e p o sits w ith th e R e se rv e B a n k s , a co n tin u e d in flo w o f g o ld , an d sin c e C h ristm a s a se a so n a l re tu rn flo w o f c u rre n c y fro m c irc u la tio n . U n ite d S ta te s G o v e r n m e n t S e c u r ity P r ic e s P ric e s o f U n ite d S ta te s G o ve rn m e n t se c u ritie s re a cte d so m ew h at a fte r re a ch in g re co rd h ig h le v e ls e a rly in D e ce m b e r. B o n d s o f 1960-65 show ed on Ja n u a ry 8 a n e t d e c lin e o f ab o ut 2 % p o in ts fro m th e a ll-tim e p e a k o f D e ce m b e r 10 b u t su b se q u e n tly flu ctu a te d som ew hat ab ove th is le v e l. T h e y ie ld on th is is su e , w h ic h w as 2 .0 3 p e r c e n t a t th e p eak in p ric e s , w as 2 .1 6 p e r ce n t on Ja n u a ry 14.
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