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In T h is I s s u e : 1974: A Year of Recession District Business Conditions ■ M O N T H L Y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e R E B a n k V I E W o f A t la n t a 1 9 7 5 Ja n u a ry r \ F e d e ra l R e s e r v e B a n k O f A t la n t a F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S t a tio n A t la n t a , G e o r g ia 303 0 3 A d d r e s s C o r r e c t io n R e q u e ste d BU LK RATE U .S. P O S T A G E P A ID A tlanta, Georgia Permit No. 292 1 9 o 7 f 4 R : A e c Y e e a r s s i o n S o u th e rn e rs are p ro u d o f their r e g io n 's e c o n o m ic p e r fo r m a n c e o v e r the p ast tw o d e ca d e s. By a n y statistics, w e can p o in t to a g e n e ra lly rap id g ro w th that w a s faster, in fact, than the n atio n a l e c o n o m y . O f co u rse , sin c e the S o u th e a st is a lso so m e w h a t less d e v e lo p e d than the n a tio n a l e c o n o m y (e.g., p er c ap ita in c o m e is still less than the n a tio n a l a ve rage ), w e can e a sily ju stify this m o re rap id g ro w th a n d h o ld o u t h o p e s fo r " m o r e o f the s a m e . " 1 O n the o th e r sid e o f the co in , w h e n e c o n o m ic a ctivity slo w s, the S o u th e a st u su a lly fares better than the nation. A lt h o u g h n o t r e c e ssio n -p ro o f, the re g io n a l e c o n o m y , b e c a u se o f its u p w a rd m o m e n tu m a n d la ck o f a la rge h e a v y d u r a b le m a n u fa c tu r in g base, has b e e n a b le to slip th r o u g h p ast re c e ssio n s p ra c tic a lly u n sca th e d . In last y e a r's e c o n o m ic review , w e n o te d that the re g io n gre w , b u t slig h tly less than n atio n a lly. Bu t n o w orry, w e said, fo r m u c h o f the n a tio n 's m o re rap id g r o w th w a s a sh a rp re b o u n d fro m the 1969-70 re ce ssio n a n d the S o u th e a st h a d less to re b o u n d from . So, last y ear it g r e w less. A t the sa m e tim e, w e d id giv e a d v a n c e w a r n in g s last y ear " o f a s lo w in g o f the S o u th e a st's e c o n o m y in 1974, fe w e r n e w jo bs, a n d s o m e rise in u n e m p lo y m e n t. . . . " 2 W h a t w e d id n 't realize is h o w m u c h the S o u th e a st's e c o n o m y w o u ld be affe cte d by the n a tio n a l s lo w d o w n , w h ic h has n o w tu rn e d in to a recession . T h is tim e re g io n a l e c o n o m ic activity s lo w e d a n d a c tu a lly d e c lin e d as m u c h , if n o t m o re , than in the c o u n try as a w h o le . T h e lastest ba tch o f re g io n a l e c o n o m ic statistics m a k e s d is c o u r a g in g r e a d in g w h e n c o n tra ste d to th o se o f a y ear a go. U n e m p lo y m e n t in the S o u th e a st has risen sh a rp ly w h ile e m p lo y m e n t, flat m o st o f the year, recen tly b e g a n fallin g. M a n u f a c t u r in g p ro d u c t io n has be en so ft; a n d p e rso n a l in c o m e , 'The Southeast is here defined as those states totally or partially within the Sixth Federal Reserve District—Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. “See this Review, January 1974, p. 5. Note: This article was prepared by William D. Toal based on material contributed by other economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: Brian D. Dittenhafer; John M. Godfrey; B. Frank King; and Gene D. Sullivan. M o n t h l y R e v i e w , u p o n r eq ue st to Atlanta, G e o r g i a this R e v i e w , t h e Research D ep ar t reprinted. V o l . L X , N o . 1. F r e e s u b s c r i p t i o n a n d a d d i t i o n a l c o p i e s a v a i l a b l e the R e s e a r c h D e p a r t m e n t , Federal R e s e r v e B a n k of Atlanta, 30303. Material herein m a y b e reprinted or abstracted p ro vi de d B a n k , a n d t h e a u t h o r a r e c r e d i t e d . P l e a s e p r o v i d e this B a n k ' s m e n t w i t h a c o p y o f a n y p u b l i c a t i o n i n w h i c h s u c h m a t e r i a l is JANUARY 1975, MONTHLY REVIEW after in fla tio n is re m o v e d , se e m s to h a ve d r o p p e d . Retail sales (p a rticu la rly autos) a n d c o n stru c tio n c o n tracts (p a rticu la rly residential) h a ve p lu m m e te d . Farm cash receip ts h ave in c re a se d o n ly s lig h tly this year. C o n s u m e r d e p o sit flo w s to c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s a n d sa v in g s a n d lo an a sso c ia tio n s slo w e d to a trickle, and , at the latter institu tio ns, net o u tflo w s o c c u rre d in late su m m e r. A ll this illustrates h o w the S o u th e a st e c o n o m y slo w e d and, in so m e cases, d e c lin e d in 1974. M a n y o f these e c o n o m ic in d ic a to rs a lso e m p h a siz e that the recession in the S o u th e a st is a p p a re n tly s o m e w h a t w o r se than it is n ation ally. j AN N O U N CEM EN T | The F e d e ra l ■T r e a s u r y a p o lic y i at th e j net a d o p te d end m em ber banks o v e r to F e d e ra l m illio n s a le $53 re c o rd e d the sh a rp e st d e clin e , as o n e m ig h t s u s p ect b e c a u se o f its d e p e n d e n c e o n tou rism . Even t h o u g h the o il e m b a r g o is over, the re g io n a l e c o n o m y h as h a d to a d ju st to the m u c h h ig h e r p rices o f all fuels. W h ile this has p ro v e d a b o o n to a fe w in d u strie s (such as c o al m in in g in R e se rv e d iv id e n d s a d d it io n s R e se rv e to n o te s. T h e 1974 exchange m illio n ; and d u e to t r a n s a c t io n s ) ; to S. B an ks' to s u r p lu s ) as to B an ks' $ 5 ,7 3 3 lo s s e s o n and s u r p lu s , $5 1 m illio n . C o n s tr u c tio n C o n str ic tio n W h ile sh o rta g e s w e re a part o f the initial slo w in g , o th e r d e v e lo p m e n ts sin ce m id -1 9 7 3 e v e n tu a lly w e a k e n e d d e m a n d in the S o u th e a st's e c o n o m y later in 1974. M o s t n o ta b le o f these w a s the p lu n g e in c o n stru c tio n activity, w h ic h w o r se n e d se verely in 1974. B o th the S o u th e a st's a n d the n a tio n 's c o n str u c tio n sector, w h ic h b e g a n s lid in g in 1973, c o n tin u e d to fall sh a rp ly in 1974, b u t the re g io n a l fa llo ff w a s steeper. T h e 1 7 -p e rc e n t o v e ra ll d e c lin e in E n e rgy w a s n o t the o n ly item in sh o rt s u p p ly in early 1974, t h o u g h it w a s p r o b a b ly the m o st d ram atic. S h o r ta g e s o f m a n y b a sic m a te ria ls su ch as steel, p ap er, a n d lu m b e r h a d b e e n s p r e a d in g sin ce m id-1 9 73 . T h e se sh o rta g e s h a d b e e n partly re sp o n sib le fo r a s lo w in g in b o th p ro d u c t io n a n d e m p lo y m e n t increase s late in 1973 a n d c o n tin u e d to b e p ro b le m s early last year. P o s sib ly r e s p o n d in g to the s h o rt a g e -in d u c e d e c o n o m ic s lo w d o w n , b a n k lo an d e m a n d m o d e ra te d early in 1974 a n d interest rates b e g a n to fall. R e g io n a l farm e rs w e re c o n fro n te d w ith sh o rta g e s o f fuel, fertilizers, a n d m a c h in e ry as the y ear b e ga n . T h e se se rve d to d a m p e n o th e rw ise e x u b e ra n t p la n s fo r e x p a n d in g farm p ro d u c t io n b e c a u se o f 1 9 7 3 's record farm cash receipts. c o n stru c tio n B u t the y ear w h ic h b e g a n w ith sh o rta g e s e n d e d FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA a n d w e a k n e ss in year, la y o ffs in r e g io n 's u n e m p lo y high. th e on d iv id e n d s , T en n e sse e), it h as c a u se d a n u m b e r o f p ro b le m s a n d d isto rtio n s in others. A t least part o f the d e c lin e in textiles a n d a p p a re l m a n u fa c tu rin g , tw o in d u strie s im p o rta n t in the So u th e a st, can be traced to in c re a se d fue l costs. w ith g e n e ra lly s lu g g is h d e m a n d m a n y sectors. By the e n d o f the m a n y in d u strie s h a d fo rc e d the m e n t rate n ear a n e w p o stw a r a re in t e r e s t R e se rv e a m o u n te d a d d it io n s U. U nder o f G o v e rn o rs U . S. T re a s u ry ( le s s $ 7 8 m illio n sh o rta g e s c a u se d a sh a rp d r o p in d e m a n d fo r n e w cars a n d a d v e rse ly a ffe cte d m o st p h a se s o f the to u rist industry. In January, a u to sale s p lu n g e d 25 percent. T h e sh a rp d e c lin e in to u rist activity c a u se d a fa llo ff in trade jo b s, b e g in n in g in late 1973 a n d c o n tin u in g th r o u g h early 1974. F lorida B o a rd th e 1974. F e d e ra l sta tu to ry and th e p a id d u r in g o f U . S. G o v e r n m e n t s e c u r it ie s f o r e ig n Last y ear started b a d ly fo r the S o u th e a st as the effects o f the A r a b o il e m b a r g o b e g a n to b e felt. H ig h e r g a s o lin e p rice s a n d fear o f fuel b y th e (a fte r n e t e a r n in g s in F o ile d b y O i l S y ste m o f 1 9 6 4 , th e e a r n in g s tu rn e d on R ese rv e $ 5 ,5 5 0 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 re g io n a l c o n stru c tio n c o n tra c t v a lu e s w a s d o u b le the n a tio n a l d e c lin e ; in real term s, the d r o p o f f w a s m u c h gre ater fo r b o th the re g io n a n d the nation. In all six D istric t states, real activity sla c k e n e d ; a lm o s t all m e tro p o lita n areas registe re d d e c lin e s in real v a lu e o f c o n stru c tio n contracts. R e sid e n tial b u ild in g , the w e a k e st part o f the sector, s h o w e d u n it c o n trac ts d o w n 43 p erce n t a g a in st 35 p e rce n t n atio n a lly. T e n n e sse e a n d F lorida h ad the largest d e c lin e s; each D istric t state w a s o ff 30 p erce n t o r m ore. Even in v a lu e term s, c o n stru c tio n c o n trac ts d r o p p e d 34 p e rce n t in the regio n, w ith each state a n d all m e tro p o lita n areas re c o rd in g de clin e s. T h e ove ra ll h o u s in g w e a k n e ss in b o th the S o u th e a st a n d the n atio n resulted fro m several interrelated factors. H o u s in g p rices rose rap id ly th r o u g h o u t 1973 a n d 1974. T h e n atio n a l p rice in d ex o f s in g le -fa m ily h o u se s rose 10.5 p e rce n t in 1973 a n d 10.6 p erce n t a n n u a lly d u r in g the first three q uarte rs o f 1974; c o n stru c tio n c o sts fo r m u ltifa m ily re sid e n ce s rose 6 a n d 16 percent, respectively. S im ila r figu re s w e re a lm o s t c ertain ly re c o rd e d in the regio n. T h e se p rice a n d rent 3 increase s c o m b in e d w ith actu a l d e c lin e s in real in c o m e g ro w th a n d la rge p rice increase s o n less d isc re tio n a ry ite m s su c h as f o o d a n d fu e l; all this le sse n e d the ove ra ll d e m a n d fo r h o u sin g . O v e r b u ild in g a d d e d to the d e c lin e in resid en tial c o n str u c tio n ; three very ro b u st years o f b u ild in g (late 1970 to early 1973) p u t a lo t o f u nits o n the m arket. T h e p ro d u c tio n rate o f n e w h o u s in g w a s u n su sta in a b le as it ate in to h o ld o v e r d e m a n d fro m 1969 a n d 1970. H o u s in g d e m a n d w a s a lso d a m p e n e d in the fin a n c ia l sector, w h e re c re d it c o sts rose a n d cre dit a va ila b ility fo r h o m e le n d in g d e clin e d . A s interest rates rose to record levels, re g io n a l c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s a n d sa v in g s a n d lo a n a sso c ia tio n s fo u n d it in c re a sin g ly d iffic u lt to attract fu n d s. C o m m e r c ia l b a n k real estate le n d in g has h e ld u p fairly w e ll but, as e lse w h e re in the nation, sa v in g s a n d lo an a sso c ia tio n s re c o rd e d re d u c e d d e p o sit in flo w s. In fact, b o th re g io n a l a n d n a tio n a l sa v in g s a n d lo a n s h ad the lo w e st d e p o sit in flo w s in three years. D e s p it e h ea vy b o r r o w in g fro m Federal H o m e Loan Banks, the se a sso c ia tio n s a lso m a d e few'er lo a n s in 1974. D e c lin e s in b o th d e p o sit in flo w s a n d m o rtg a g e le n d in g w e re gre ater in the S o u th e a st than n atio n a lly. F lorida a c c o u n te d fo r m u c h o f last y e a r's d e c lin e in re g io n a l c o n stru c tio n , as w e ll as fo r the ro b u st a ctivity o f p re v io u s years. T h e state g e n e ra lly a c c o u n ts fo r m o re than o n e -h a lf o f the S o u th e a st's resid en tial c o n trac ts (valu e a n d units) a n d is, therefore, an im p o rta n t d e te rm in a n t o f o ve rall c o n stru c tio n p e rfo rm a n c e . S p e c ia l forces, a lo n g w ith th o se a lre a d y o u tlin e d , c a u se d F lo rid a 's d r o p in resid en tial c o n stru ctio n . S h o rta g e s o f b u ild in g m ate rials early in 1974 a p p e a r to h ave be en m o re severe than in m o st o th e r areas, s lo w in g a ctivity early. T h e state's attractiven ess as a s e c o n d -h o m e site w a s u n certain in a fu e l-sta rv e d e c o n o m y ; the s lo w in g e c o n o m y a lso re d u c e d d e m a n d fo r se c o n d o r v a c a tio n h o m e s, fu rth er d e p r e ssin g F lo rid a 's h o u s in g industry. Large in v e n to rie s o f u n s o ld c o n d o m in iu m s, c o n c e n tra te d o n the so u th e a ste rn co ast a n d the P a n h a n d le be ach e s, attest to b o th o v e rly o p tim istic b u ild e rs a n d the fa llo ff in d e m a n d . R e g io n a l n o n re sid e n tia l c o n stru c tio n , w h ic h in c lu d e s ro a d s a n d c o m m e r c ia l a n d in d u strial plants, in c re a se d in d o lla r term s in 1974 u n lik e the resid en tial sector. H o w e v e r, in real term s, activity w a s d o w n . C o n tr a c te d sq u a re f o o t a g e fo r n o n resid en tial b u ild in g s w a s o ff 13 p e rce n t re g io n a lly a n d 9 p e rce n t n a tio n a lly . Large utility c o n trac ts w e re off; th o se m a d e w e re c o n c e n tra te d in Lo uisiana. F urth erm ore , as 1974 p ro gre sse d , the e c o n o m ic s lo w d o w n fo rc e d m a n y in d u strie s a n d utilities to sc a le d o w n c o n stru c tio n p la n s o r sh e lv e the m c o m p le te ly , fu rth er w e a k e n in g this se cto r to w a rd y e a r's end. A s a net result o f this d e clin e , c o n stru c tio n jo b s 4 shrank, b u sin e s s failu re s in c re a se d , a n d u n e m p lo y m e n t rose sh a rp ly in the sector, a g a in m o re s o in the So u th e a st. Every D istric t state e x ce p t L o u isia n a lost a gre ater p e rc e n ta g e o f c o n str u c tio n jo b s than the n a tio n ; n o t su rp risin gly , the largest dip , o v e r 12 percen t, c a m e in Florida. N a tio n a lly , c o n stru c tio n jo b s h a ve falle n a b o u t 5 percent. But the effects o f the d e c lin e w e re n o t iso la te d in that se cto r alo n e . If so, b o th the S o u th e a st's a n d n a tio n 's e c o n o m ie s w o u ld n o t h a v e s a g g e d as m u c h as the y d id in 1974. A n e c o n o m y is inter tw in e d in m a n y w ays. T h is b e c a m e a p p a re n t last y ear as the s lu g g is h n e s s in c o n stru c tio n sp re a d to related ind ustries. M o b i le h o m e m a n u fa c tu rin g , a very im p o rta n t re g io n a l in d u stry, a lso d e c lin e d sh a rp ly in 1974. S h ip m e n t s w e re a b o u t o n e -h a lf their n o rm a l le vels and , as a c o n se q u e n c e , m a n y p lan ts clo se d . B u ild in g m ate rials, lu m b e r, furn itu re, an d carp ets all are lin k e d to c o n stru c tio n . W h e n c o n stru c tio n a ctivity w e n t sour, d e m a n d fo r these p ro d u c ts so fte n e d . C o n s e q u e n tly , each has s h o w n su b sta n tial p r o d u c t io n a n d jo b d e clin e s. Each o f these in d u strie s is im p o r ta n t in the S o u th e a st's e c o n o m y ; to g e th e r th e y a c c o u n t fo r a la rge r p o rtio n o f total re g io n a l e m p lo y m e n t, p ro d u c tio n , a n d p a y ro lls than the y d o n a tio n a lly . It is n o t su rp risin g, then, that the o v e ra ll rise in u n e m p lo y m e n t a n d s lo w in g in total jo b g ro w th has b e e n gre ater in the S o u th e a st than n atio n a lly. T h e re gio n is s im p ly m o re d e p e n d e n t o n c o n stru c tio n activity, e s p e c ia lly c o n s id e r in g related m a n u factu rin g. The C o n su m e r: N o B o o m T he c o n stru c tio n d e c lin e a n d its sp r e a d in g effects w e re n o t the o n ly d ra g s o n the S o u th e a st's e c o n o m y in 1974. C o n s u m e r s p e n d in g in ge n e ral s lo w e d a n d then d e c lin e d fro m the sa m e c o st p re ssu res a fflic tin g o th e r parts o f the nation. H ig h e r p rices fo r all fu e ls c o m b in e d w ith rap id f o o d p rice increase s to p u t a se vere sq u e e z e o n fa m ily b u d g e ts. This, in turn, led to actual d e c lin e s in real in c o m e s, w h ic h c o m b in e d w ith risin g u n e m p lo y m e n t to m a k e 1974 a y e a r o f c o n s u m e r c a u tio n a n d retren chm en t. Even w it h o u t the oil e m b a r g o a n d h ig h e r fuel p rices, 1974 w a s e x p e cte d to b e a m e d io c r e y ear for a u to sales. T h e e x tra o rd in a rily rap id increase in sale s o f the p re v io u s tw o years c a u se d a sa tu ratio n o f n e w cars in c o n s u m e r ha n d s. C o n s u m e r d e b t in c u rre d to p u rc h a se the se n e w cars h a d a lso risen to ex tre m ely h ig h le vels (as a fra c tio n o f p e rso n a l in c o m e s) w h e n c o m p a r e d to p ast n o rm s. C o u p li n g this w ith e x p e cte d sh a rp p rice in c re a se s o n 1975 m o d e ls led to fo re c asts o f d e p re sse d car sales; these w e re n o t d isa p p o in te d . In fact, the a u to sales s lu m p has b e e n eve n w o r se than foreseen . T h o u g h a u to sale s p ic k e d u p s lig h tly after m id y e a r as p ro sp e c tiv e b u y e rs ru sh e d to ge t 1974 m o d e ls JANUARY 1975, MONTHLY REVIEW b e fo re the m o re e x p e n siv e 1 975's w e re in tro d u c e d , sale s o f p a ss e n g e r cars a n d ligh t tru cks fell NEW CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS P ercent Change* sign ific an tly . A g a in , re gio n a l d e c lin e s w ere greater than n atio n a lly. D u r in g the first n in e m o n th s o f the year, a u to sale s in the S o u th e a st w e re d o w n 22 percent, c o m p a r e d to the sa m e p e rio d o f 1973; n atio n a lly, they w e re d o w n 19 percent. H a rd e st hit w a s Florida, w h e re a u to sale s w e re o ff 31 p erce n t; e a ch state, h o w e v e r, rep orte d a su b sta n tial drop . In the final q u a rte r o f 1974, a u to sales c o n tin u e d to d e clin e . A s a result, the fe w a u to a sse m b ly p lan ts in the re g io n (centered in the A tla n ta area) w ere a n n o u n c in g b o th te m p o ra ry a n d p e rm a n e n t la y o ffs as the y ear en d e d . M a n u fa c tu r e r s o f a u to su p p lie s b e g a n re d u c in g p ro d u c t io n sc h e d u le s a n d la y in g o ff w o rk e rs sin ce early in 1974. D e c lin e s in real in c o m e s a n d sp ira lin g in fla tio n c o m b in e d to d a m p e n c o n s u m e r c o n fid e n c e a n d re d u ce s p e n d in g g e n e ra lly (in real term s), as the year p ro gre sse d . Sale s o f g o o d s at d e p a rtm e n t stores w e re off; retail p u rc h a se s fell n early 5 percent, after a d ju stm e n t fo r inflatio n. Sales d e c lin e d slig h tly m o re in the S o u th e a st than natio n a lly, p o s s ib ly b e c a u se o f a sh a rp e r d r o p o ff in real in c o m e s in a d d itio n to the greater c o n stru c tio n de clin e . H a rd e st hit in the d u ra b le g o o d s se cto r o u ts id e a u to s w e re h o u s e h o ld fu rn ish in g s, su ch as w a s h in g m a c h in e s a n d refrigerators, furniture, a n d fixtures. A m o n g n o n d u ra b le g o o d s , carp et sales w ere p artic u larly slo w , a lo n g w ith a p p a re l g o o d s sales. T h e w e a k n e ss in n e w h o m e s a n d a p a rtm e n ts w a s fu n d a m e n ta l to the sales d e c lin e s o f m a n y h o u s e h o ld g o o d s , bu t p rice resistance to h ig h e r-p ric e d item s, p artic u larly a m o n g a p p are l g o o d s , a lso c o n trib u te d . A n d as la y o ffs in c re a se d a n d in c o m e s fell, c o n s u m e r c o n fid e n c e tu rn e d in c re a sin g ly so u r a n d m o re b r o a d ly b a se d sales d e c lin e s d e v e lo p e d . R e fle c tin g these d e v e lo p m e n ts, n e w c o n s u m e r le n d in g at c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s d r o p p e d b e lo w re p ay m e n ts late in 1974 fo r the first tim e sin ce the 1970 recession. A u t o fin a n c in g e x p la in s m u c h o f the re d u c tio n in c o n s u m e r debt. O u t s t a n d in g n o n -a u t o m o tiv e c o n s u m e r c re d it in c re a se d a b o u t 11 percent, a p p ro x im a te ly the sa m e a m o u n t as p rices increased. In term s o f real v o lu m e of c o n s u m e r g o o d s fin a n c e d d u r in g the year, then, there w a s p ra c tic a lly n o c h a n ge . H o w e v e r, d e sp ite the s lu m p in sale s o f h o u s e h o ld g o o d s , lo a n s m a d e b y re g io n a l b a n k s to repair a n d m o d e r n iz e h o m e s w e re u p stro n g ly , s h o w in g the largest relative g a in s o f all c o n s u m e r lo an catego rie s. M a n y a c o n s u m e r w a s fix in g u p his o ld h o u se rather than b u y in g a n e w o n e in 1974. 1974 1973 Alabama Florida Georgia Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee District States U. S. 6.4 29.3 10.0 5.4 9.5 4.0 14.1 10.6 — — — — — — — — 17.4 31.2 20.2 12.6 14.2 15.0 22.1 19.0 *Based on first ten months of each year. fin a n c ial se cto r fro m th o se in o th e r parts o f the e c o n o m y a n d to m e asu re the in tera ction b e tw e e n these sectors. T h e p u lse o f fin a n c ial activity b o th reflects a n d in flu e n c e s c h a n g e s in real e c o n o m ic activity. A s m e n tio n e d , c o n stru c tio n fig u re d la rgely in last y e a r's e c o n o m ic d e clin e . H ig h interest rates, p artia lly a result o f stro n g b u sin e ss lo an d e m a n d an d a c c e le ra tin g in flatio n , cu rtaile d d e p o sit gro w th at c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s a n d sa v in g s a n d lo an a sso c ia tio n s, w h e re d e p o sit rates c o u ld n o t rise to c o m p e titiv e levels. T h e net result w a s less m o rtg a g e m o n e y ava ila b le , p u ttin g further strain o n an a lre a d y s a g g in g h o u s in g m arket. But 1974 c a n n o t b e s u m m e d u p q u ite that easily; fo r re g io n a l ba n ks, it w a s d o m in a te d b y large c h a n g e s in lo an d e m a n d s. A s the y ear b e ga n , lo an d e m a n d s w e re m o d e ra te a n d interest rates w ere d e c lin in g . By late February a n d early M a r c h , the p rim e rate h ad d e c lin e d fro m 9 3A p e rce n t to 8 3A percent. A t the sa m e tim e the c o st o f b a n k fu n d s, as m e a su re d b y the Federal fu n d s a n d large C D rates, a lso d e c lin e d . But in M a r c h , b u sin e ss d e m a n d s fo r cre d it su rg e d in re gio n a l m arkets, partly in re sp o n se to atte m p te d in v e n to ry b u ild u p s o f scarce m ate rials as w e ll as a tte m p ts to sto c k p ile su p p lie s b e fo re fu rth er p rice increases. By A p ril, m a n y o f the la rge r re g io n a l b a n k s w e re b e in g c a lle d u p o n to h o n o r p re v io u sly e sta b lish e d b u t littleu se d le n d in g a gre e m e n ts b y n a tio n a l c o m p a n ie s. M a n y n atio n a l c o m p a n ie s 3 h a d u se d their b a n k lin es o n ly as a b a c k u p fo r c o m m e r c ia l p a p e r sales. W h e n in ve stors b e g a n to q u e stio n s o m e firm s' fin a n c ia l stren gth in 1974, these c o m p a n ie s c o u ld n ot roll o v e r the ir paper, f o r c in g the m to b o rr o w fro m the ban ks. A s a result, b a n k lo a n s e x p a n d e d r a p id ly th ro u g h July; and , b e c a u se d e p o sit flo w s w e re w eak, the larger re g io n a l b a n k s h ad to b o rr o w h e a v ily th r o u g h the Federal fu n d s m arke t a n d sale s o f C D 's . By early July, the p rim e rate had risen sh a rp ly a n d the c o st o f o b ta in in g fu n d s B a n k in g A c tiv ity : C re d it R estrain t a n d a N e a r C ru n c h T h ere is n o w a y to se parate d e v e lo p m e n ts in the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 3These include both commercial and industrial businesses and nonbank financial institutions, such as mortgage banks, real estate investment trusts (REIT's), and other businesses generally dependent on commercial paper for financing. 5 T h e S o u t h e a % — 8 Unem ploym ent Rate L a st y e a r 's r is i n g u n e m p l o y m e n t w a s s o m e w h a t m o r e s e v e r e in t h e S o u t h e a s t t h a n th e u. s. n a t io n . D is t r ic t ' Construction Contract Awards C o n s tr u c tio n a c t iv it y , d r o p p in g s in c e 350 R e sid e n tia l la te 1 9 7 3 , is a p r i m e f a c t o r in t h e r e g i o n 's r e c e s — 250 s io n . R e s id e n t ia l c o n s t r u c t i o n h a s b e e n w e a k N est. N o n re sid e n tia l — 150 S a v in g s and Loans Reduced d e p o s it le n d in g , f lo w s c o n tr ib u tin g s lo w e d to th e m o rtga ge s lid e in — 500 re s i d e n t ia l h o u s i n g . — 0 Em ploym ent T e xtile s — 215 — 205 The c o n s tr u c tio n r e la t e d d e c lin e m a n u fa c t u r in g has sp read in d u s t r ie s . to T e x t ile s ; l u m b e r a n d w o o d ; f u r n it u r e ; a n d s t o n e , c la y , and g la s s in d u s t r i e s a ll r e g is t e r e d jo b — 195 de c lin e s . — 185 /v — 85 — 75 _ R e g io n a l d u r in g au to th e s a le s g a s o lin e p lu n g e d in sh o rtage , e a r ly New Auto R egistratio ns 3 mo. mvg. avg. 1967 = 100 200 1974 c o n tin u in g 150 d o w n t h r o u g h o u t t h e y e a r. — 100 1973 6 1974 t i n R e c e Departm ent Store S a le s s s Ja n i o n 1973=100 The — 100 c o n s tr u c t io n s h r in k in g real d e c l in e in c o m e s c o m b in e d and w it h in f la t io n to d a m p e n c o n s u m e r re a l s p e n d i n g , e v e n m o r e s o in t h e S o u t h e a s t t h a n n a t io n a lly . — 90 Mil. $ 200 R e f le c t in g 100 + 0 s lu m p in g re tail sa le s , co n su m e r c r e d it e x t e n d e d b y c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s s l o w e d and th e n d r o p p e d . 100 290 250 B a n k le n d in g , t h o u g h s lo w e d 210 170 a ft e r m id - y e a r . s t r o n g e a r ly in 1 9 7 4 , D e p o s it in f lo w s to c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s s l o w e d u n t il a s l ig h t p i c k u p la te in t h e y e a r. 150 Dem and D eposits N o D i s t r i c t s ta te e s c a p e d u n s c a t h e d f r o m th e ge ne ral e c o n o m ic d e c l in e ; a ll six sh o w ed r is in g u n e m p l o y m e n t rates. \ Bil. $ A le s s t h a n r o b u s t p e r f o r m a n c e in t h e f a r m se cto r d e p re sse d i n c o m e s a n d s a le s fu r th e r . C r o p r e c e ip t s w e r e u p s t r o n g ly , b u t liv e s t o c k cash r e c e ip t s fe ll o ff, r e d u c i n g n e t f a r m co m e s. 1972 1973 1974 (partially estimated) 7 in h a d sh o t up, e sp e c ia lly a ffe c tin g T e n n e sse e ban ks, w h e re le g a l-le n d in g c e ilin g s w e re in force. Pressed fo r fu n d s, S o u th e a ste rn b a n k s a lso relied m o re h e a v ily On the ir b o r r o w in g fro m the Federal R ese rve 's d is c o u n t w in d o w w ith a n e a r-trip lin g in le n d in g to n e a rly $300 m illio n a day. S in c e m id s u m m e r , lo an d e m a n d s have tap ered o ff as b a n k s te n d e d to re d u c e lo an c o m m itm e n ts, in v e n to ry b u ild in g slo w e d , a n d m a n y b u sin e sse s cu t b a c k c a p ita l-s p e n d in g projects. A lso , the o v e ra ll s lo w d o w n in the r e g io n 's e c o n o m y re d u c e d c re d it d e m a n d s in ge ne ral, p a rtic u la rly in the c o n s u m e r area. S tr o n g lo a n d e m a n d s earlier in the y e a r h ad an e sp e c ia lly h e a v y im p a c t o n S o u th e a ste rn b a n k s b e c a u se d e p o sit g r o w th w e a k e n e d as the y ear p ro gre sse d . N e t d e m a n d d e p o sits, as w e ll as c o n s u m e r tim e a n d sa v in g s d e p o sit c h a n ge s, f o llo w e d e sse n tia lly the sa m e p attern : str o n g early in the year, then s lo w in g th r o u g h N o v e m b e r Som e O u tstan ding Perform ers A m o n g District Crops in 1974 I W HEAT I 1 1 1 1 i___________________ WBtM. m m 1 m |~4— Production* PEANUTS SOYBEANS 1 r CORN TOBACCO I f 1 0 I 20 1 l 40 l 1 60 1 80 /a change from year ago *Based on November 1974 indications **Based on October 1974 prices w h e n s o m e in c re a se d in flo w s fin a lly to o k place. Faced w ith str o n g lo a n d e m a n d s a n d sm a lle r d e p o sit gains, b a n k s cut b a c k o n b u y in g n e w se curities, first re d u c in g p u rc h a se s o f U. S. G o v e r n m e n t se cu rities a n d then, in A p ril an d M a y , c u ttin g b a c k o n m u n ic ip a l issues. By m idye ar, re g io n a l b a n k s w ere re d u c in g h o ld in g s o f T re asu ry o b lig a tio n s m o re than they w ere a d d in g to their o th e r in v e stm e n t h o ld in g s ; a n d in v e stm e n t p o r tfo lio s o f re g io n a l b a n k s a c tu a lly d e clin e d . T h e s lo w in g S o u th e a ste rn e c o n o m y h ad b y ye a r's e n d be en tran slate d in to further w e a k e n in g o f b u sin e ss lo an d e m a n d as total n e w lin es w ere b e in g p u t o n m o re s lo w ly than o ld lin es w ere p a id d o w n . Interest rates h a d fallen o ff su b sta n tia lly a n d fu n d s w e re re tu rn in g to b a n k s as w e ll as sa v in g s a n d lo an a sso c ia tio n s th r o u g h increase s in p a s s b o o k sa vin gs. H o w e v e r, this in c re a se d cre dit a va ila b ility had, as o f the turn o f the year, faile d to p ro v id e sig n ific a n t stren gth to c o n stru c tio n , bu sin e ss, o r c o n s u m e r sp e n d in g . W e a k n e s s in Farm In c o m e s W h ile c o n stru c tio n a n d o th e r se ctors w e re fe e lin g the recession , the in c o m e p ic tu re fo r S o u th e a ste rn farm e rs w a s m ix e d last year. C a s h receipts varied w id e ly , d e p e n d in g u p o n the c o m m o d ity . T h o u g h ove ra ll cash receipts in 1974 w e re o n ly slig h tly a b o v e a year a g o , they h ave d e c lin e d in real term s, furth er d e p r e ssin g real in c o m e s a n d sp e n d in g . Liv e sto ck receipts w e re w eake st, w ith farm e rs b o th in the S o u th e a st a n d the n a tio n e x p e rie n c in g severe in c o m e re d u c tio n s as so m e liv e sto c k prices d r o p p e d m o re than 50 p e rce n t b e lo w 1973's h igh s. D u r in g the year, m a n y liv e sto c k lo a n s w ere re n e w e d as p ro d u c e rs atte m p te d to p o s t p o n e sale s w h e n e v e r p o s s ib le until m arke ts im p ro v e d . In m a n y cases, h ow e v e r, e x tra o rd in a rily h igh feed c o sts fo rc e d sale s o f liv e sto c k o n d e p re sse d 8 m arke ts; p o u ltry m e n c u rta ile d o u tp u t sh arply. S in c e liv e sto c k receip ts a c c o u n t fo r o n e -h a lf o f re g io n a l farm cash receipts, the d e p r e ssin g effects o n in c o m e s w e re su b sta n tial. T h o u g h the p ic tu re fo r liv e sto c k farm e rs w as bleak, it w a s rosy fo r re g io n a l c ro p farm e rs; their in c o m e s w e re e x c e p tio n a lly h igh . In m o st cases, farm e rs e x p e rie n c e d g o o d y ie ld s at the sa m e tim e that c ro p s e lse w h e re in the n a tio n w ere sh a rp ly cu rtaile d b y d ro u th . T h is d ro u th p u s h e d u p p rice s a n d p ro v e d a real b o n a n z a fo r S o u t h eastern c ro p farm ers. In fact, this a d v a n ta g e is o n e o f the fe w fa v o ra b le c o n trasts b e tw e e n the S o u th e a st's a n d n a tio n 's 1974 e c o n o m ie s. M o s t c ro p s c o n trib u te d to the g a in s in farm receipts. R e g io n a l c o rn p r o d u c t io n in c re a se d o v e r 10 percent, w h ile n a tio n a lly c o rn d e c lin e d n early 20 percent. B a se d o n O c t o b e r 1974 figu re s, co rn w a s p ric e d n early 50 p e rce n t a b o v e y e a r -a g o levels, v a lu in g the y e a r's re g io n a l c o rn c ro p tw o -th ir d s h ig h e r than the 1973 harvest. N a tio n a l so y b e a n p ro d u c t io n d e c lin e d sh a rp ly, b u t the S o u th e a st's c ro p he ld n e a rly ste a d y ; 4 0 -p e rc e n t h ig h e r p rice s fed large in cre a se s in receipts. T h e t o b a c c o crop, cen te red in G e o r g ia a n d T e n n e sse e , in c re a se d n early three tim e s faster tha n the n a tio n 's; a p p r o x im a te ly 2 5 -p e rc e n t h ig h e r to b a c c o p rice s in 1974 b o o ste d in c o m e s eve n higher. P e an u ts p e rfo rm e d better than o th e r c ro p s in G e o r g ia a n d A la b a m a . T h e r e g io n 's 1974 c ro p w a s the largest eve r g r o w n a n d prices, a p p ro x im a te ly 37 p e rce n t h ig h e r than in 1973, h e lp e d in c re a se receipts. C o tt o n farm e rs re c o rd e d the o n ly d is a p p o in tm e n ts a m o n g re g io n a l crops. W h ile early p ro je c tio n s in d ic a te d a sh a rp y ie ld increase, the actu al c ro p w a s a b o u t the sa m e as in 1973; n atio n a lly, c o tto n y ie ld s d e c lin e d . Prices fell JANUARY 1975, MONTHLY REVIEW t h r o u g h o u t the y ear a n d re g io n a l c o tto n farm e rs g e n e ra lly re p o rte d h ea vy losses. W h ile receip ts w e re m ixed, farm e rs g e n e ra lly fac e d risin g c o sts; the in d e x o f p rices p a id b y farm e rs w a s sh a rp ly a b o v e that o f 1973. T h u s, net farm fa m ily in c o m e s re m ain e d level at be st and, in real term s, m o st ce rta in ly d e clin e d . S u m m in g U p T h e fo rce s b e h in d the S o u th e a st's e c o n o m ic d e c lin e in 1974 w e re e sse n tia lly the sa m e as tho se s lo w in g the n a tio n 's e c o n o m y . S h o rta ge s, the A ra b oil e m b a r g o , c o n tin u in g e n e rg y p ro b le m s, d e c lin e s in c o n stru c tio n activity, s p ira lin g in flatio n , a n d lo w e r real in c o m e s all c o m b in e d a n d sp re a d to b r in g a b o u t a ge n e ral s lo w in g a n d the n actual d e c lin e o f b o th re g io n a l a n d n a tio n a l e c o n o m ie s to w a rd y e a r's en d, a d e c lin e m o re se vere than a n ticip a te d . a fe w o f the im p o n d e r a b le s n o w p e rp le x in g forecasters. W h ile s o m e n o w sp e a k o f v a ry in g a m o u n ts o f e c o n o m ic recovery fo r the n a tio n a l e c o n o m y b e fo re the e n d o f 1975, it is im p o rta n t to n o te the extrem e u n ce rtain ty w ith w h ic h these fo re casts are c o u c h e d . For the So u th e a st, ev e n tu al recovery w ill, at least a c c o r d in g to o u r view , b e slo w e r than n atio n a lly, p artly b e c a u se a gre ater o v e rh a n g in h o u s in g a p p e a rs to exist here a n d w ill b lu n t a n y stro n g r e b o u n d in related ind ustries. A lt h o u g h re g io n a l g r o w th p o te n tial is su c h that it w ill p r o b a b ly c o n tin u e to o u tp a c e the n atio n o v e r a lo n g e r sp an o f tim e, in 1975 this m o st lik ely w ill n o t b e true. It w ill p r o b a b ly b e 1976 b e fo re the re g io n a l e c o n o m y returns to its lo n g -r u n g ro w th p a t t e r n .* F urth erm ore , the r e g io n 's recession , a c c o r d in g to m o st in d ica to rs, a p p e a rs to h a ve b e e n m o re severe than the n a tio n 's; c o n stru c tio n , in c o m e s, a n d sales h a ve all d ip p e d m o re ste e p ly here. A s w e 'v e p o in te d ou t, a sh a rp e r d e c lin e in h o u s in g in the S o u th e a st than n a tio n a lly , a lo n g w ith a s o m e w h a t larger c o n stru c tio n se cto r a n d a p re p o n d e r a n c e o f in d u strie s c lo se ly tied to c o n stru c tio n , has led to a greater in c id e n c e o f p ro d u c t io n d e clin e s, p la n t c lo sin g s, a n d jo b layoffs. C o n se q u e n tly , u n e m p lo y m e n t has risen m o re ste e p ly a n d the u n e m p lo y m e n t rate a p p r o a c h e d the n atio n 's, th o u g h re m a in in g s o m e w h a t b e lo w it at y e a r's end. A s the n e w y e a r b e ga n , the S o u th e a st w a s re giste rin g the h ig h e st u n e m p lo y m e n t rate in six years.4 Job a n d p ro d u c t io n d e c lin e s h a d b e c o m e w id e s p r e a d b o th g e o g r a p h ic a lly a n d ind ustrially. Even fo r the e m p lo y e d , the n u m b e r o f h o u rs w o r k e d p e r w e e k w as, in m a n y in stan ce s, re d u c e d fro m y e a r -a g o le vels as m a n u fa ctu re rs a d ju ste d p ro d u c tio n sc h e d u le s d o w n w a r d b e c a u se o f re lu cta n ce to lay o ff a d d itio n a l w orke rs. T h e re can be little d o u b t that the S o u th e a st is re c e iv in g its fair sh are o f the recession. T h e O u t lo o k T h e e c o n o m ic futu re is p r o b a b ly as u n ce rtain n o w as it has b e e n fo r s o m e tim e. E n e rgy p ro b le m s, c o n s u m e r d issa tisfa c tio n , u n ce rtain ty in fin a n c ia l m arkets, a n d a c h a n g in g fiscal p o stu re are bu t 4Because of new procedural techniques in estimating state unemployment statistics, only six years of historical data are presently available. Since the Sixties was generally a period of low unemployment rates, the present high regional unemploy ment rate is probably the highest recorded in thirteen or fourteen years. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 9 S ix t h D is t r ic t S t a t is t ic s S e a s o n a lly A d ju s te d (A ll d a ta a re in d e x e s , L a t e s t M onth 1974 O ne M onth Ago Tw o M o nth s Ago O ne Year Ago L a t e s t M o nth 197 4 U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te (P e rc e n t of W o rk F o rc e ) . . . Avg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H r s .) . S IX T H D IS T R IC T IN C O M E A N D S P E N D IN G . O ct. C r o p s ..................................................................... . O ct. O ct. L iv e s to c k ......................................................... In s t a lm e n t C re d it at B a n k s * / 1 (M il. $) . Nov. Nov. 176 2 18 240 175 179 172 167 177 170 182 201 191 222 565 618 5 70 r 597 r 636 638 752 628 132 .2 116.9 114.4 1 03 .9 1 09 .5 1 11.3 132.3 119.6 116.6 104.9 113 .5 117 .7 1 13.3 129 .6 108 .8 1 23 .4 112 .4 1 32.7 113.5 133 .0 158.5 113.1 1 36 .8 153 .4 125.2 138.1 1 47 .2 148.7 179 186 174 O ne M onth Ago Two M o nth s Ago O ne Year Ago 5 .4 3 9.1 4 .8 3 9 .4 4 .6 4 0.5 3 .6 4 1 .6 265 2 08 276 265 209 259 264 210 275 235 194 228 181 242 186 241 188 166 184 217 151.1 125.1 156.7 185.2 9 7 .5 153 .2 1 27 .0 1 58.2 1 91.0 9 2 .6 1 53 .4 129 .1 158.1 191 .3 92.1 1 5 2 .6 1 30 .6 1 56 .8 2 1 6 .8 9 6 .6 7 .0 3 9 .5 6 .3 4 0 .0 5 .5 4 0.1 4 .2 4 1 .1 311 2 38 311 311 243 309 314 245 326 290 228 302 163 241 169 180 166 128 161 254 . Nov. 127 .5 106 .2 137.3 132 .2 8 5.8 128 .7 108 .7 1 37 .9 1 35 .4 8 5 .4 128 .5 109.1 1 3 7 .4 1 35 .8 8 0.0 1 29 .6 113.1 137.1 151 .2 8 9 .6 . Nov. 6 .4 3 8.8 5 .4 3 9.3 5.1 3 9.4 3 .9 4 0.3 265 189 328 271 194 323 263 190 337 251 180 280 . Nov. . O ct. 174 259 164 164 165 273 222 . Nov. 117.3 1 16.9 U 9 .9 8 7 .8 5 2.9 116.5 103 .2 119.2 N ov. 1 20 .4 8 9 .4 5 0 .8 116 .3 1 04 .9 1 18 .6 9 0.3 7 1 .9 . Nov. 7 .3 4 0 .4 7 .0 4 0 .4 7.1 4 0 .7 5 .9 4 0 .7 256 196 253 2 58 196 2 44 257 195 2 44 231 176 188 192 190 199 150 129.0 123.7 131.5 124.9 7 6.8 129.6 1 26.4 131.0 126.2 8 1.5 . Nov. F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M em b er B a n k L o a n s ................................ M em b er B a n k D e p o sits . . . . B a n k D e b i t s * * ............................................. . D ec. F L O R ID A IN C O M E E M P L O Y M E N T A N D P R O D U C T IO N . Nov. . Nov. . Nov. 131.1 114.0 112.2 103.6 103 .9 P rin tin g and P u b lis h in g . • . L b r ., Wood P ro d s ., F u rn . & F ix . . S to n e , C la y , an d G la s s . . . . . • . T ra n s p o rta tio n E q u ip m e n t • . . . Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. . . . . S ta te an d L o c a l G o v e rn m e n t Fa rm E m p lo y m e n t ............................................ U n e m p lo ym e n t R a te (P e rc e n t o f W o rk F o rc e ) . . . . In su re d U n e m p lo ym e n t (P e rc e n t of C ov. E m p . ) ......................... Avg . W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H rs .) . . C o n s tru c tio n C o n t r a c t s * ......................... P r in t in g a n d P u b lis h in g F u rn itu r e a n d F ix t u r e s . . S to n e , C la y , a n d G la s s . . P r im a ry M e t a l s ......................... F a b ric a te d M e ta ls . . . . N o n e le c tric a l M a ch in e ry E le c t r ic a l M a c h in e ry . . T ra n s p o rta tio n E q u ip m e n t . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . 132 .4 1 16 .0 1 13 .9 102.7 107.4 110.1 111.8 111.2 112.1 112.6 126.3 127.1 127 .8 112.7 112.8 113.3 116.1 118.7 120.0 101.8 105 .2 108 .0 124.5 125.8 126.3 111.8 113 .8 114 .8 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. 1 26 .8 155.1 105.1 137.7 139 .9 125.7 1 36 .9 1 47.6 1 53.2 1 06 .0 139.6 8 1.3 1 29 .8 157.4 106.3 138.2 141 .8 125 .2 138.6 147.9 152 .9 105.4 1 38.6 7 4.7 131.6 156.3 107 .6 137.7 140 .9 124.7 139.1 147.7 151 .6 105 .0 137.2 7 0 .6 Nov. 6 .3 5 .6 5 .2 4.1 3 .9 39.1 146 .4 136.5 156.2 67 98 153 152 134 147 136 138 134 174 152 155 150 157 3 .0 3 9.7 2 06 .7 155 .0 2 57 .5 73 2.7 4 0.0 2 5 6 .4 173.5 3 37 .7 77 98 152 152 135 151 136 139 136 168 153 157 159 161 109 124 153 256 134 4 0.8 3 24 .7 3 2 4 .3 325.1 80 105 150 150 137 149 143 137 140 158 151 147 162 150 108 136 148 2 39 140 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. O ct. Nov. S ep t. S e p t. S ep t. S ep t. S e p t. S e p t. Sep t. S ep t. S e p t. S e p t. S ep t. S ep t. S e p t. S ep t. S ep t. S e p t. S e p t. 110 121 158 256 137 101 153 152 135 148 136 139 135 171 153 156 153 159 111 122 156 257 137 102.2 132 .4 8 4.9 1.6 F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G Lo an s* A ll M e m b e r B a n k s ............................................ D ec. La rg e B a n k s .........................................................D ec. D e p o sits* A ll M em b er B a n k s ............................................D ec. La rg e B a n k s .........................................................D ec. B a n k D e b its * / * * .................................................. New. 280 2 66 281 2 69 2 78 2 65 257 243 214 191 294 216 194 289 215 188 301 200 177 255 N o n farm E m p l o y m e n t ......................... ...................................... M a n u fa c tu rin g N o n m a n u f a c t u r in g ................................ C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................... F a rm E m p lo y m e n t ...................................... U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te (P e rc e n t o f W o rk F o rc e ) . . . A vg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H rs .) . . Nov. . Nov. F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M em b er B a n k L o a n s ................................ M e m b e r B a n k D e p o s it s ......................... B a n k D e b i t s * * ......................... G E O R G IA IN C O M E M a n u fa c tu rin g P a y ro lls . . . . F a rm C a s h R e c e i p t s ................................ O ct. EM P LO YM EN T N o n farm E m p l o y m e n t ......................... M a n u fa c tu rin g ...................................... N o n m a n u fa c tu rin g .......................... C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................... F a rm E m p lo y m e n t ................................ U n e m p lo ym e n t R a te (P e rc e n t of W o rk F o rc e ) . . . Avg. W e e k ly H rs. in Mfg. (H rs .) . Nov. . Nov. F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M em b er B a n k L o a n s ................................ M em b er B a n k D e p o sits . . . . B a n k D e b i t s * * ......................... L O U IS IA N A IN C O M E M a n u fa c tu rin g P a y ro lls . . . . F a rm C a s h R e c e i p t s ................................ 155 EM P LO YM EN T N o n fa rm E m p lo y m e n t . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g ...................................... N o n m a n u f a c t u r in g ................................ C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................... F a rm E m p lo y m e n t ....................................... U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te (P e rc e n t o f W o rk F o rc e ) . . . A vg . W e e k ly H rs . in M fg. (H r s .) . 102.8 102.8 66.0 88.1 M em b er B a n k L o a n s * .......................... M em b er B a n k D e p o sits* . . . . B a n k D e b i t s * / * * ............................................ , D ec. IN C O M E 179 212 180 162 183 267 173 196 119.7 114 .3 122.1 126.0 7 8.8 120 .0 115.7 1 22 .0 125.0 5 9 .9 119.8 117.0 121.1 124.3 121.0 117.7 122.6 134 .9 EM PLO YM EN T 10 EM P LO YM EN T M I S S IS S IP P I IN C O M E N o n fa rm E m p l o y m e n t ......................................Nov. M a n u fa c tu rin g ...................................................N ov. N o n m a n u fa c tu rin g ......................................No j. C o n s t r u c t i o n .................................................. Nov. F a rm E m p lo y m e n t ...................................................N ov. . O ct. F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G A LA B A M A M a n u fa c tu rin g P a y r o l l s ......................................Nov. F a rm C a s h R e c e i p t s ............................................ O ct. M a n u fa c tu rin g P a y ro lls . . . . Fa rm C a sh R e c e i p t s ................................ M a n u fa c tu rin g P a y ro lls . . . . F a rm C a s h R e c e i p t s ................................ • O ct. 202 191 196 171 1 30 .0 128.5 130.7 125.6 6 9.1 129.3 1 31 .4 128 .3 1 36 .6 7 9 .9 EM P LO YM EN T 54.1 76.4 N o n farm E m p l o y m e n t .......................... M a n u f a c t u r i n g ...................................... N o n m a n u f a c t u r in g ................................ C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................... F a rm E m p lo y m e n t ...................................... . Nov. . Nov. JANUARY 1975, MONTHLY REVIEW O ne M onth Ago L a t e s t M o nth 1 97 4 U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te (P e rc e n t o f W o rk F o r c e ) ......................... Nov. A vg . W e e k ly H rs . in M fg. (H r s .) . . . Nov. Tw o M o nth s Ago O ne Year Ago L a t e s t M onth 1974 One M onth Ago Two M o nth s Ago O ne Year Ago EM P LO YM EN T 5 .6 3 8.6 4 .8 3 9.3 4.1 39.1 3 .7 4 0.5 263 218 268 2 68 2 14 264 258 214 259 221 . Nov. F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M e m b e r B a n k L o a n s * ...................................... D ec. M e m b e r B a n k D e p o s i t s * ................................D ec. B a n k D e b i t * * / * * .........................................................Nov. 261 209 U n e m p lo ym e n t R a te (P e rc e n t o f W o rk F o rc e ) . . A vg . W e e k ly H rs . in M fg. (H r s .) . Nov. 128.8 115 .0 1 36 .4 1 46 .0 80.7 129.5 117.5 136.2 1 45.8 7 6.7 128.6 117 .4 1 34 .9 138.8 8 4.0 128 .8 121.5 1 32 .8 138 .0 9 0.1 5 .0 3 9.0 4 .6 3 9.8 4 .0 4 0.2 3.1 4 0 .5 281 213 265 2 74 210 269 271 2 06 2 89 245 192 215 TEN N ESSEE F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G Nov. O ct. M a n u fa c tu rin g P a y r o lls F a rm C a s h R e c e ip t s . 182 148 177 161 183 217 ‘ F o r S ix th D is t r ic t a re a o n ly ; o th e r to ta ls fo r e n tir e s ix s t a t e s 183 180 ‘ D a ily a v e ra g e b a s is fP r e lim in a r y d ata N .A . N ot a v a ila b le Note: All indexes: 1967=100. S o u r c e s ; M a n u fa c tu r in g p ro d u ctio n e s tim a te d by t h is B a n k ; n o n fa rm , m fg . a n d non m fg . e m p ., m fg . p a y ro lls an d h o u rs, a n d u n e m p ., U .S . D ept, o f L a b o r a n d c o o p e ra tin g st a t e a g e n c ie s ; co tto n c o n s u m p tio n , U .S . B u re a u o f C e n s u s ; c o n s tru c tio n c o n t ra c t s , F . W . D odge D iv ., M cG ra w -H ill In fo rm a tio n S y s te m s C o .; p e tro l, p ro d ., U .S . B u re a u of M in e s ; fa rm c a s h re c e ip ts an d fa rm e m p ., U .S .D .A . O th e r in d e x e s b a se d on d a ta co l le cte d b y t h is B a n k . A ll in d e x e s c a lc u la t e d by t h is B a n k . 'D a ta b e n ch m a rk e d to J u n e 1971 R e p o rt of C o n d itio n . D e b it s to D e m a n d D e p o s it A cco u n ts In su re d C o m m e r c ia l B a n k s in th e S ix th D is tric t (In T h o u s a n d s o f D o lla rs ) P e r c e n t C h an g e Nov. 1974 fro m Nov. 1974 O ct. 1974 N ov. 1973 O ct. Nov. 1974 1973 . B a rto w -L a k e la n d W in te r H a ven D a yto n a B e a c h . . F t. La u d e rd a le H o llyw o o d . . . . F t . M ye rs . . . . G a in e s v ille . . . Ja c k s o n v ille . . . . M elb ou rne T itu s v ille - C o c a ......................... M iam i O r l a n d o ......................... P e n s a c o la . . . S a ra s o ta . . . . T a lla h a s s e e . . . T a m p a - S t. P e te . W . P a lm B e a c h . A l b a n y ......................... A t l a n t a ......................... A u g u s t a ......................... C o lu m b u s . . . . M aco n ......................... Savannah . . . . A le x a n d ria . . B a to n R o u ge . L a fa y e tt e . . . . L a k e C h a r le s . New O rle a n s . . . . . . . B ilo x i- G u lfp o rt . . Ja c k s o n ......................... C h atta n o o g a . . . K n o x v ille . . . . N a s h v ille . . . . O TH ER C E N T E R S A n n isto n . . . . . 4 ,6 7 6 ,1 9 3 1 12 ,1 89 4 31 ,1 39 1 ,3 5 7 ,5 5 5 7 1 9 ,7 3 4 2 5 7 ,7 6 6 3 ,7 4 8 ,5 7 6 1 01 ,3 90 3 25 ,7 53 1 ,1 1 9 ,3 2 4 6 4 2 ,4 5 8 2 2 0 ,2 0 3 7 5 2 ,9 8 3 3 7 9 ,2 6 3 8 4 9 ,2 6 5 4 6 9 ,3 6 1 7 5 1 ,3 3 7 3 8 1 ,5 7 3 1 ,8 0 0 ,4 4 6 3 4 1 ,3 1 9 2 7 0 ,6 3 6 5 ,2 0 0 ,8 7 4 2 ,0 7 5 ,8 1 2 3 7 0 ,7 3 9 2 8 6 ,9 6 0 4 ,9 7 3 ,4 4 1 3 6 4 ,8 5 5 7 ,2 5 9 ,3 3 5 1 ,4 1 8 ,5 3 4 4 9 5 ,1 3 5 5 1 0 ,7 8 5 6 6 8 ,3 7 3 3 ,7 0 6 ,6 3 3 1 ,1 3 3 ,8 6 4 + 25 + 8 + 23 + 13 + 11 + 10 +33 + 13 +23 + 21 + 11 +20 -1 1 -1 9 + 0 - 1 + 9 + 17 1 ,7 0 4 ,7 6 7 3 6 7 ,9 0 4 2 5 4 ,8 6 9 4 ,7 2 9 ,1 6 9 -1 3 - 8 - 6 + 5 + + + 6 7 6 10 + 12 + 21 + 11 + 19 4 0 3 ,2 0 3 7 ,7 9 6 ,7 2 0 1 ,5 5 7 ,4 5 4 5 4 2 ,2 1 9 5 6 3 ,2 7 4 9 5 8 ,4 7 6 4 ,1 1 8 ,0 5 2 1 ,2 4 4 ,6 3 8 5 3 0 ,0 8 7 6 ,9 9 5 ,3 0 0 1 ,4 4 3 ,1 6 2 4 1 8 ,1 5 7 4 7 3 ,8 0 8 7 8 3 ,0 4 4 4 ,0 7 5 ,4 1 6 1 ,2 1 2 ,0 7 0 -1 0 - 7 - 9 - 9 - 9 -3 0 -1 0 - 9 -3 1 + 4 - 2 + 18 + 8 -15 - 9 - 6 +’ 5 + 14 + 6 + 18 + 14 + 6 + 10 + 6 1 85 ,6 73 1 7 ,4 5 4 ,1 9 9 6 6 6 ,7 7 9 4 6 3 ,1 9 5 8 0 2 ,5 7 8 7 4 4 ,7 4 0 2 2 0 ,9 4 0 1 9 ,5 9 1 ,1 8 9 7 7 2 ,2 3 4 5 1 2 ,4 5 4 8 3 5 ,8 9 0 7 6 4 ,4 4 7 1 8 7 ,8 4 9 1 5 ,7 2 9 ,1 0 6 5 7 9 ,8 5 2 4 3 3 ,0 9 0 5 6 9 ,8 8 7 5 3 7 ,7 6 9 -1 6 -1 1 -1 4 -1 0 - 4 - 3 - 1 + 11 + 15 + 7 + 41 + 38 + 8 + 25 + 28 + 17 + 49 +23 2 8 3 ,6 0 9 1 ,9 3 3 ,3 6 1 3 3 4 ,3 3 3 2 6 0 ,0 0 6 5 ,1 7 8 ,5 2 5 3 0 2 ,1 9 0 1 ,9 9 2 ,2 9 8 3 7 8 ,3 5 0 3 1 1 ,7 3 6 5 ,3 9 1 ,1 8 2 2 5 9 ,8 1 9 1 ,2 2 9 ,5 6 8 2 7 3 ,7 7 9 2 3 2 ,6 7 6 4 ,0 2 5 ,8 9 4 - 6 - 3 -1 2 -1 7 - 4 + 9 + 57 +22 + 12 + 29 + 19 +45 + 20r +22 +22 2 8 6 ,9 9 7 1 ,9 2 7 ,7 9 8 2 8 5 ,1 6 2 1 ,8 8 9 ,7 7 7 2 2 3 ,3 8 8 1 ,4 6 6 ,4 4 8 + 1 + 2 + 28 + 31 + 7 + 27 1 ,3 1 3 ,4 0 0 1 ,7 7 9 ,5 8 3 4 ,2 0 5 ,4 9 4 1 ,3 4 3 ,8 3 6 2 ,0 6 2 ,3 6 8 4 ,4 0 5 ,5 1 1 1 ,2 9 0 ,0 2 7 1 ,0 2 0 ,1 2 0 3 ,6 7 7 ,8 7 6 - 2 -1 4 - 5 + 2 + 11 + 7 4 + 111 + 14 + 2 7 1 1 2 ,9 56 1 26 ,4 51 1 02 ,2 67 - -11 0 2 7 7 1 6 O ct. 1974 ......................... ......................... 1 8 8 ,9 9 7 8 6 ,9 3 0 2 1 9 ,4 2 3 8 7 ,6 5 6 1 8 5 ,1 3 5 9 7 ,8 1 5 -1 4 - 1 + 2 -1 1 + 8 + 7 B ra d e n to n . . . . M onroe C o u n ty O c a l a ................................ S t. A u g u s tin e . . S t. P e te rs b u rg . . T a m p a ......................... 1 8 2 ,2 53 1 1 1 ,8 0 8 1 7 1 ,1 11 4 1 ,6 8 5 8 8 2 ,2 9 6 1 ,9 1 5 ,9 8 3 2 2 2 ,0 9 1 1 2 7 ,5 65 2 0 3 ,0 6 9 4 5 ,5 9 0 1 ,0 1 0 ,3 3 5 2 ,1 1 1 ,5 1 9 1 8 0 ,3 4 2 7 5 ,9 6 8 2 1 1 ,6 5 5 3 5 ,0 9 2 9 8 2 ,3 1 4 1 ,9 8 8 ,3 0 3 -1 8 -1 2 -1 6 - 9 -1 3 - 9 + 1 +47 -1 9 + 19 -1 0 - 4 + 16 + 48 + 0 + 35 + 5r + 14 ......................... A th e n s B ru n s w ic k . . . . D a lto n ......................... E lb e rto n . . . . G a in e s v ille . . . G riffin ......................... La G ra n g e . . . . N e w n a n ......................... R o m e ................................ V a ld o sta . . . . 1 5 2 ,9 83 9 7 ,2 3 0 1 67 ,5 17 2 1 ,7 2 2 1 5 3 ,1 9 8 7 1 ,8 6 7 3 7 ,7 1 1 4 5 ,1 0 0 1 29 ,9 73 1 12 ,1 50 1 72,201 1 1 2 ,1 9 5 1 9 3 ,5 8 9 2 4 ,6 0 2 1 7 8 ,7 82 8 6 ,4 9 4 3 8 ,0 2 7 5 2 ,6 0 6 1 4 7 ,2 85 1 2 5 ,0 23 1 5 6 ,6 60 9 5 ,9 8 5 1 9 5 ,8 8 0 2 1 ,2 2 0 1 3 9 ,6 10 7 4,54 1 4 3 ,5 4 5 5 8 ,1 7 5 1 4 7 ,6 9 9 9 3,47 1 -1 1 -1 3 -1 3 -1 2 -1 4 -1 7 - 1 -1 4 -1 2 -1 0 - 2 + 1 -1 4 + 2 + 10 - 4 -1 3 -2 2 -1 2 + 20 + 5 + 7 + 3 + 13 + 18 + 18 + 8 - 8 + 7 + 17 A b b e v ille . . . . B u n k i e .......................... H am m ond . . . . N ew Ib e ria . . . P la q u e m in e . . . T h ib o d a u x . . . . 1 7,27 2 2 0 ,7 0 0 9 7 ,6 6 2 8 6 ,1 2 5 2 5 ,8 1 9 5 3 ,4 7 8 1 8,70 0 2 4 ,8 1 4 106 ,8 91 6 7 ,7 0 0 2 7 ,7 9 3 4 2,85 1 1 7,64 2 1 9,46 5 8 6 ,0 5 2 6 4 ,1 8 8 2 0 ,9 9 1 3 6 ,8 1 9 - 8 -1 7 - 9 +27 - 7 + 25 - 2 + 6 + 13 + 34 + 23 + 45 + 5 + 32 + 14 + 20 + 4 + 13 H a ttie s b u rg . . . ......................... L a u re l M e rid ia n . . . . N a tc h e z . . . . P a sc a g o u la - 1 2 9 ,6 45 7 7 ,2 2 7 125 ,4 93 5 9 ,4 1 0 1 38 ,0 51 8 5 ,7 0 3 1 4 2 ,9 65 6 8 ,1 1 7 1 2 9 ,7 2 4 7 2 ,9 7 6 1 1 4 ,0 01 5 7 ,4 1 4 - 6 -1 0 -1 2 -1 3 + + + + + + + M o ss P o in t . . V ic k s b u rg . . . . Y a zo o C ity . . . 1 7 5 ,3 15 9 8 ,2 8 3 4 6 ,5 1 0 1 6 1 ,5 0 0 1 3 2 ,0 9 3 5 8 ,3 4 3 1 4 9 ,7 9 6 9 1 ,0 4 7 4 9 ,7 8 2 + 9 -2 6 -2 0 + 17 + 8 - 7 + 13 + 26 + 26 B r i s t o l ......................... Jo h n so n C ity . . . K in g s p o rt . . . . 1 34 ,4 28 1 42 ,5 73 3 0 6 ,9 2 4 16 1 ,1 0 2 1 6 7 ,0 32 3 4 3 ,6 5 7 107 ,4 91 1 59 ,5 16 2 5 5 ,6 8 6 -1 7 -1 5 -1 1 + 25 -1 1 + 20 + 6 + 6r + 19 . 8 5 ,1 9 7 ,8 6 1 9 1 ,2 8 5 ,3 7 4 7 6 ,1 4 5 ,0 0 0 7 + 12 + 12 1 0 ,5 8 0 ,1 3 3 2 8 ,5 9 8 ,3 8 8 2 7 ,0 0 2 ,6 0 7 9 ,9 2 4 ,6 3 8 3 ,8 6 1 ,1 0 7 1 1 ,3 1 8 ,5 0 1 8 ,7 3 3 ,3 9 5 2 6 ,6 0 1 ,0 2 8 2 1 ,6 0 3 ,7 7 9 - 9 + 19 - 0 + 14 + 25 + 13 + 24 3 ,1 4 4 ,4 2 2 8 ,7 5 9 ,7 0 8 - + 10 + 11 2 8 + 20 + 19 + 20 + 35 D is t ric t To ta l A la b a m a ......................... F l o r i d a ................................ G e o r g i a ................................ L o u is ia n a 2 M is s is s ip p iTen n essee2 1 0 ,3 6 0 ,8 7 0 2 6 ,5 8 3 ,0 3 3 2 4 ,5 2 9 ,2 1 4 9 ,5 4 8 ,5 9 3 3 ,7 7 6 ,9 1 7 1 0 ,3 9 9 ,2 3 4 Nov. 1973 1 97 4 fro m 1973 Nov. 1974 D o th an S e lm a 4 ,6 7 4 ,1 9 7 1 0 9,792 4 01 ,3 37 1 ,2 6 3 ,3 6 8 7 1 2 ,6 9 4 2 4 1 ,2 7 8 Year to D a te 11 m o s N o v. 1974 fro m 1974 from 1973 S T A N D A R D M E T R O P O L IT A N S T A T IS T IC A L A R E A S ' B irm in g h a m . . . G a d sd e n H u n ts v ille . . . . M o b i l e ......................... M o ntg o m ery . . . T u s c a lo o s a . . . P e rce n t Change Year to D ate 11 m os. O ct. N o v. 1 97 4 1973 0 6 10 3 6 14 12 13 'C o n fo rm s to S M S A d e fin itio n s a s o f D e c e m b e r 3 1 , 1972. " D is t ric t p o rtio n o n ly . r-R e vise d F ig u re s fo r so m e a re a s d iffe r s lig h tly fro m p re lim in a ry fig u re s p u b lis h e d in “ B a n k D e b its a n d D e p o sit T u rn o v e r " by B o a rd o f G o v e rn o rs of th e F e d e ra l R e s e rv e S y s te m . FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 11 D is t r ic t B u s in e s s C o n d it io n s *Seas. adj. figure; not an index Latest plotting: Nov., except mfg. production, Sept., and farm cash receipts, Oct. E c o n o m ic activ ity in the S o u th e a st c o n tin u e s to slac k e n . Job lo sse s w e re w id e s p r e a d . T h e c o n str u c tio n se cto r r e m a in e d d e p re sse d , w h ile c o n s u m e r s p e n d in g c o n tin u e d to la n g u ish . N e t fa rm in c o m e d e c lin e d , as c o sts in c re a se d faste r th a n c ash receipts. S tro n g e r d e p o s it g a in s e a se d liq u id ity p re ssu re s at S o u th e a st b a n k s, w h ile b a n k le n d in g w a s w e a k. T h e u n e m p lo y m e n t rate ju m p e d in N o v e m b e r to 6.3 p erce n t. T otal n o n fa rm jo b s d e c lin e d fo r the third straigh t m o n th , as every state exce pt Lo u isia n a rep orte d lo w e r e m p lo y m e n t. W e a k n e s s w a s sp re a d a cro ss the in d u strial sp e ctru m . In m a n u fa c tu rin g, o n ly fo o d p ro c e ssin g e sc a p e d the w id e n in g circle o f recession. G o v e r n m e n t e m p lo y m e n t a n d se rvices w ere b righ t sp o ts in the n o n -m a n u fa c t u r in g sectors. A v e r a g e h o u rly e a rn in g s in cre a se d sligh tly , bu t m a n u fa c tu r in g p ay ro lls w ere d o w n b e c a u se o f a sh o rte r w o r k w e e k a n d lo w e r e m p lo y m e n t. T h e v a lu e o f c o n stru c tio n co n tra c ts d r o p p e d p re c ip ito u sly in N o v e m b e r . A lt h o u g h sin g le -fa m ily m o rtg a g e rates d e c lin e d a n d sa v in g s a n d lo an d e p o sit in flo w s rose, the d o lla r v a lu e o f residen tial a w a rd s d r o p p e d to a level 50 p erce n t b e lo w 1974's h igh a n d 60 p erce n t b e lo w N o v e m b e r 1973. T h e fall in resid en tial a w a rd s w a s a c c o m p a n ie d b y a steep d e c lin e in the v a lu e o f n o n re sid e n tia l aw ards. C o n s u m e r in sta lm e n t d e b t to c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s d e c lin e d fo r the th ird c o n se c u tiv e m o n th . S lu g g is h sale s c a u se d a sh arp d e c lin e in d e m a n d fo r n e w a u to loan s, w h ile re p ay m e n ts re m ain e d at h igh levels. Lo an s o u ts ta n d in g in cre a se d in the n o n a u to m o tiv e c o n s u m e r g o o d s a n d h o m e im p r o v e m e n t cate go rie s, b u t p e rso n a l lo a n s d e clin e d . S p e n d in g o n n o n a u to m o t iv e c o n s u m e r g o o d s in cre ase d slig h tly in N o ve m b e r, w hen retailers initiated str o n g p re -C h r is tm a s p ro m o tio n s . B u sin e ss b o r r o w in g at the la rge r D istric t b a n k s c lo se d the y e a r o n a n u n s e a s o n a b ly w e a k n ote. In line w ith fa lte rin g e c o n o m ic activity, b a n k lo a n s to p ro d u c e rs o f tra n sp o rta tio n e q u ip m e n t, textiles a n d a p p are l, f o o d p ro d u c ts, a n d w h o le s a le a n d retail trade d e c lin e d . W h ile m a n y n o n b a n k fin a n c ia l in stitu tio n s h a ve te n d e d to re p la ce their b a n k lin es w ith less e x p e n siv e fu n d s, s o m e fin a n c e c o m p a n ie s have sh a rp ly in c re a se d their use o f lo ca l b a n k lin es in recent w ee ks. P rice s re c e iv e d b y fa rm e rs in N o v e m b e r sta b iliz e d at a le vel 5 p e rce n t a b o v e a y e a r a g o , w h ile p ric e s p a id b y fa rm e rs a d v a n c e d to 19 p e rc e n t a b o v e the c o m p a r a b le 1973 level. A lt h o u g h the v o lu m e of m a rk e tin g s increase d, e stim a te d net returns to fa r m ers w e re d o w n sh a rp ly fo r the y e a r as a w h o le . Prices fo r citrus p ro d u c ts h a ve d r o p p e d o n e -fifth b e lo w b o th m o n t h -a g o a n d y e a r -a g o le vels; p r o d u c tio n is e stim a te d to be u p Wy 5 percent. A n im p ro v e d fe e d -p ric e ratio ha: resu lte d in sh a rp ly h ig h e r b ro ile r p la c e m e n ts in recent w e e ks, f o llo w in g several m o n th s o f restricted o u tp u t. Note: Data on which statements are based have been adjusted whenever possible to eliminate seasonal influences. 12 JANUAIY 1975, MONTHLY REVIEW
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