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The International Monetary System: As It Is Very recently, the United States monetary authorities devised an in genious plan— operations in foreign currencies— to help cope with a pressing practical problem— financing our balance of payments deficit. It is quite likely, however, that this “new” device owes a good deal to a proposal made more than forty years ago but considered visionary at the time. This is frequently the case in economic affairs. What was visionary yesterday has become standard operating procedure today. What is thought to be impractical today may be a pillar of the established order some years hence. Innovations in the economic environment are ac cepted slowly, and monetary institutions develop through a gradual process of evolution. This is certainly the case with our present inter national monetary system. In 1922, Sir Ralph Hawtrey proposed that the central banks of the major countries hold one another’s currencies and use them to settle deficits among themselves. The purpose was to economize on the use of gold. Hawtrey was Chairman of the Financial Commission of the Genoa Conference, and that Commission believed that if central banks would accept other countries’ currencies instead of gold in settlement of claims, the worldwide demand for gold might be regulated to conform to the supply. In this way, the price of gold could be controlled to prevent worldwide inflation or deflation. The U. S. Treasury since 1961 and the Federal Reserve System since 1962 have been engaged in acquiring foreign currencies by borrowing (in the case of the Treasury) and by swap agreements (in the case of the Federal Reserve). In each case, the foreign country is given a dollar claim on us, guaranteed against devaluation. Among other pur poses, we use the foreign currencies thus acquired to buy up ordinary dollar claims, which foreign countries would otherwise use to buy gold from us. In effect, we are offering foreign countries special inducements to allow us to finance our balance of payments deficits with dollars rather than gold. Other countries have long held dollars and pounds sterling, along with gold, as part of their international reserves because these curren cies are widely used in international trade and have been generally as acceptable as gold in making international payments. There had not been until recently, however, any understanding that other countries would deliberately use these special dollar claims as a partial substitute for gold. When the U. S. eliminates its deficit, it is anticipated that we will begin to acquire substantial amounts of certain foreign currencies, so that the system envisioned by Hawtrey forty years ago might then be generalized among the nations with convertible currencies. In the unsettled conditions of the 1920’s, international cooperation was not outstandingly successful, although there were many attempts. The Great Depression brought an end to nearly all efforts to achieve agreement on international monetary affairs, and it was not until 1944 that any attempt was made to establish a new system of formal international monetary cooperation. It was at that time that the agreement establishing the International Monetary Fund was signed at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. For many years after World War II, however, the system of free exchange and pay ments envisioned by the Bretton Woods founders con tinued to be frustrated by the exchange controls that most countries believed were essential to protect their precarious balances of payments. Only gradually were these controls removed. Thus, postwar international mone tary history is a story of evolution; and the reciprocal currency arrangements of the U. S. Treasury and Federal Reserve System represent only the latest step in this evolution. The Need for a " System " Before we describe the process by which we have reached our present situation, we ought, perhaps, to understand clearly why the world has felt so strongly the need for some sort of international monetary “system”. And, by “system”, we mean a consciously planned set of arrange ments designed to deal with those problems that arise from the international flow of goods, services, and capital. Money is essential to operating a modern economy. It makes possible the exchange of goods and services that could not take place through barter. The difficulties of ex changing, for example, a haircut for a bus ride without the use of money are so obvious that all countries, once past the most primitive stage of economic development, have established some sort of monetary system. Several centuries of experience have shown that businessmen and consumers can get along quite well with less than ideal arrangements. They may be inconvenienced if, for ex ample, there is more than one kind of money in circula tion, as was the case after the Civil War when greenbacks and gold coins circulated together in the U. S. Since the gold dollar commanded a premium over the paper dollar, everything had two prices— a greenback price and a gold price. Trade may be burdened, too, if merchants have to examine each piece of money they receive to see if it is comparable to the others they hold. Nevertheless, these are minor inconveniences, and the business community can put up with them readily enough. What it cannot easily cope with are sudden and unpre dictable changes in the conditions under which it can use money in its daily transactions. Sudden, violent inflation or deflation, or changes in the rate of inflation, or govern mental actions blocking the use of money for certain pur poses can be very disruptive to business, for the essence of successful business is the ability to plan for the future. This is particularly true of modern economies, where nearly all production is for future use. In other words, to operate efficiently, businessmen need a set of monetary ground rules that will provide reasonable stability in their environment. The defenders of the present international monetary system claim that it now provides these ground rules with the maximum certainty possible. Its detractors claim that it does not. In any case, a great deal of effort has been devoted in the postwar period to establishing a more satisfactory set of rules. Bretton W oods The conference at Bretton Woods in 1944 did much more than establish the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. It also decided what sort of monetary sys tem these institutions would operate in. In the first place, the conferees agreed that close cooperation should replace the competitive, “beggar-my-neighbor” policies of the pe riod between the two World Wars. In that period, a coun try experiencing balance of payments difficulties would, all too often, devalue its currency to stimulate its exports, not merely enough to bring its balance of payments back into equilibrium, but by so much that it would run a sur plus and begin to accumulate gold. Other countries, af fected adversely by this action, would feel compelled to retaliate. Some countries, notably Nazi Germany, estab lished exchange controls and conducted trade on a barter basis for the purpose of building a war machine. In order that members should not feel compelled to behave in this way, the International Monetary Fund was established and given the power to lend to members in temporary difficulties. The Fund, as it finally emerged, represented a compromise among different viewpoints, however. The British plan called for an International Clearing Union, which would have the power, within limits, to create an international money, “bancor”, which the members would agree to accept in settlement of deficits among themselves. Access to the Union’s resources would be practically automatic, within a member’s quota; and these quotas would be, in the aggregate, quite large. The U. S. was in a very strong position, however, being the principal creditor nation. The American negotiators wanted to minimize the extent to which we would sub sidize other countries’ deficits and insisted that each mem ber’s borrowing rights be limited to what it had con tributed to the Fund. Although the borrowing terms and total Fund resources were made somewhat more generous than they were in the original U. S. draft, the basic struc ture of the Fund was shaped according to the more con servative American plans. As part of the mechanism of cooperation set up at Bretton Woods, the Fund members agreed not to change the par values of their currencies by more than ten per cent from their initial parities without prior consultation with the Fund. The idea was to prevent the competitive exchange depreciation of the period between the two World Wars— to keep all exchange rates constant until, by mutual agreement, a change was thought to be desirable. All the members agreed that they would freely permit pay ment for goods and services after a “transition” period, which actually turned out to be about fifteen years long. Members were permitted and even required, however, to maintain controls over capital movements. There had been so much trouble in the Thirties with “hot money”, that is, the flow of funds from banks in one country to those in another to escape depreciation or confiscation, that it was believed controls over this sort of international payments would have to be retained. The members also agreed that domestic full employment should be the primary goal of economic policy (the Great Depression was vividly in the minds of the conferees) and that balance of payments equilibrium should not be •2 • sought at the expense of a stable domestic economy. The hope was that access to the Fund’s resources would enable a country to put its domestic house in order, while at the same time running a deficit that it could not otherwise have permitted. The Problem of Adjustment The Bretton Woods agreement, as is true of most com promises, left several unsettled problems. The most im portant was the question of how the system was to react to disturbances. Suppose, for example, that U. S. receipts decline, while Germany’s increase. This would tend to cause the U. S. to lose international reserves and Germany to gain them. This could not go on indefinitely, and some thing must occur to reverse the process. When most coun tries were on the old gold standard, the process of adjust ment would be roughly as follows: The U. S. loss of gold would reduce commercial banks’ reserves and, perhaps, also induce the Federal Reserve System to try to stop the gold loss by making it more expensive for them to replenish those reserves. Either way, bank loans would tend to contract, thus putting a damper on national income. Because of this, U. S. imports would decline and would eventually reduce U. S. international payments to a level that equaled receipts. The opposite development would occur in Germany. This sort of adjustment, however, was just what the framers of the Fund did not want to happen because it might entail depression and unemployment in the deficit countries and inflation in the surplus countries. But how, then, was adjustment to occur? One possibility would be to let exchange rates change. Then, to take our former example, the dollar would become cheaper to obtain and the German mark would become more expensive. This would encourage foreigners to buy more U. S. goods and services and discourage the purchase of German goods and services. The Bretton Woods conferees agreed, how ever, that they did not want exchange rates to fluctuate freely outside very narrow limits because of the uncer tainty this would introduce into international trade. If neither exchange rates nor national incomes were free to change, what was left? Apparently the Fund’s founders hoped that most disturbances would be self-reversing. This would be true of seasonal movements. The U. S. balance of trade, for example, tends to be least favorable in the third quarter, when American tourists flock to Europe and when the crops that will be sold abroad have not yet been harvested; but it improves con siderably in the fourth quarter, when the tourists come home and the crops are sold. Another self-reversing dis turbance might be a crop failure one year in a particular country that might be counterbalanced in later years. But, obviously, not all disturbances are self-reversing. If a country’s situation did not improve in a reasonably short time, some positive action would have to be taken. The Fund’s founders seem to have believed that the best answer to this problem was for individual countries to develop ad hoc solutions as the occasion demanded. Ex ports might be encouraged by some tax incentive scheme or lending abroad might be discouraged until the deficit had disappeared. If nothing worked and some countries continued to run deficits while others piled up surpluses, the Fund agreement provided that the Fund might officially declare a currency to be scarce when it was about to run out of stocks of it. At this point, that currency would be rationed among the other members who wished to borrow it. They, in turn, would have to ration it to their own citizens— in other words, impose exchange controls. Finally, and as a last resort, members might change exchange rates after con sultation with the Fund “to correct a fundamental dis equilibrium”. The hopes placed in this adjustment procedure were perhaps a little naive from the beginning. Certainly, it has never worked as planned. There have been numerous changes in par values with little or no consultation with the Fund; and the scarce currency clause was never used, primarily because most members retained their exchange controls until very recently. Under the pressure of events, the Bretton Woods system was modified, little by little, until it is now quite different from the intended design of 1944. After Bretton Woods The Fund’s resources proved quite inadequate to meet the enormous deficits that European countries ran in the im mediate postwar years. U. S. foreign aid filled the breach, and the Fund remained relatively inactive until 1952. In that year, Fund policy was changed to give members practically automatic borrowing rights up to the point at which the Fund held 100 percent of the member’s quota in the member’s currency. Since each country originally contributed 75 percent of its quota in its own currency and 25 percent in gold, this was roughly equivalent to allowing a country to borrow an amount equivalent to its gold contribution with practically no questions asked. Sub sequently, the Fund has gradually relaxed its terms for borrowing even beyond this level. In the same year, the Fund agreed to make “stand-by arrangements”, that is, to promise to lend up to a certain amount to a given mem ber for a certain period of time. These decisions consid erably increased the Fund’s effectiveness, and use of its facilities increased so much that before long its resources were felt to be inadequate. In 1959, by general agreement, members’ quotas were increased about 50 percent in the aggregate. In 1958, the U. S., no longer the only major surplus country, began to run huge deficits. By 1961, if the U. S. had ever wanted to borrow from the Fund, it might well have happened that the Fund would not have had enough of the currencies (those of the principal European countries) the U. S. would want to borrow. So Canada, the United States, Japan, and seven European countries agreed that they would lend their currencies to the Fund if they were needed. Within the last three years, other developments have occurred outside the Fund. In the spring of 1961, Great Britain experienced a severe crisis. Her balance of pay ments situation deteriorated, and there was a “flight from the pound”, as investors with liquid funds began to fear that sterling would be devalued. In this critical juncture, Great Britain received short-term loans from several (Continued on Page 6) •3 • A Cure for the Blues: Louisiana The sight of Christmas trees denuded of lights and of tinsel lying along city streets, not to mention backyard trash cans filled to overflowing with discarded Christmas wrap pings and New Year’s party decorations, may give many persons that post-holiday blues feeling. This letdown may be further accentuated if well-intended resolutions have already been forgotten by this early date.. One possible cure for the post-holiday blues, especially if you are a Louisianian, is to look at some of the recent economic developments in the state of Louisiana. Economic Indicators — Louisiana ii m 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 i 1 1 1 j 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 19 5 7 -5 9 = 1 0 0 Before and After In late 1962, reports available from the Louisiana Depart ment of Employment Security had shown virtually no improvement through the fall of that year in both nonfarm employment and manufacturing employment. However, later data for that same period, which were based on more complete information that became available during 1963, indicated the job situation in manufacturing was much better than earlier figures had revealed. The boost in the 1962 level of manufacturing employment resulted primarily from revisions in the employment data for the mushrooming Michoud space facility. These changes had not been reflected in earlier official figures. The revised figures for 1962 manufacturing employment, together with subsequent figures for 1963, show that after stumbling downhill for eight years, manufacturing em 11 i m i ii ~~ P e r s o n a l In c o m e W hy Louisiana? Why should a look at developments in Louisiana be a blues chaser? The upward tilt of the indicators shown in the accompanying chart gives the answer: Louisiana's economy continues to expand from the 1960-61 recession level. Not only has business expansion climbed pro gressively upward during 1963, but new figures on income and employment for the previous year, 1962, show that the improvement in business during that year was actually stronger than data had indicated at this time last year. The economic picture in Louisiana, thus, might be re garded as doubly good when these earlier improvements are noted. The most comprehensive evidence of the sustained im provement in the business expansion is the trend of per sonal income. Following the sharp jumps in the summer and winter of 1962, personal income rose further during the first ten months of 1963, outstripping the year-ago gain by over 8 percent, according to estimates made at this Bank. Although nearly all income components for Louisiana registered increases during 1963 on a year-todate basis, the largest percentage gains stemmed from the manufacturing, contract construction, and Federal Govern ment sectors and, to a lesser degree, from mining and services. Only farm income has lagged behind last year’s level. A considerable share of the credit for the improved income situation may be attributed to employment gains in the manufacturing sector. 111111111 ' N o n fa r m E m p lo y m e n t M fg . E m p lo y m e n t M fg . P a y r o lls C o n s t r u c t io n E m p lo y m e n t M em ber B an k Lo an s I I M I I I I II I I I i i I i I ______ 1961 1S ♦For Sixth District area only. ployment made a dramatic reversal in early 1962. De spite a moderate relapse in mid-1963, manufacturing employment has definitely recovered and remains con siderably above year-earlier levels. The continued strength of the advance, as in the case of the earlier bench mark revisions, stems largely from gains in the heavy goods sector of manufacturing, pri marily the other durables category containing most of the new jobs associated with the space effort. For instance, of the more than 4,000 manufacturing jobs added since late 1962, virtually all of the increase in employment has been in the other durables category. In contrast, despite recent employment gains in food and kindred products, offsetting declines in other industries have caused total employment in the soft goods industries to remain un changed since early 1962. . 4 . As expected, the effect of the revitalized manufacturing sector on income has been electric: Factory payrolls have spiraled upward during the past two years in the strongest upsurge in recent times. Booming Construction Although the comeback of the manufacturing sector has played a leading part in the brighter economic picture, the income data noted earlier showed other sectors have also earned a nod of approval. Construction, in particular, should be singled out. Construction contracts awarded during the first eleven months of 1963 are 36 percent above the year-ago vol ume for the same period. Construction spending awards for both residential and nonresidential building, such as hospitals, dormitories, and manufacturing plants, have registered higher volume. The gain in dollar value of resi dential contracts this year has been particularly sharp in New Orleans and in the smaller areas located outside the state’s major metropolitan centers. The impact of the improved building situation, not only of 1963 but of 1962 as well, is reflected in substantial increases in the mortgage loan portfolios of the state’s savings and loan associations and banks. The building industry’s brighter environment has also contributed to the sharp reversal in construction employment — a re versal only slightly less dramatic than that occurring in manufacturing at about the same time. After declining since 1957, construction employment turned around in early 1962, and the number of construction jobs rose rapidly during 1962 and early 1963. During the summer, employ ment sagged a bit, but recent figures show the number of construction jobs headed upward once again. Along with manufacturing and construction, other sec tors have also contributed to the recent growth in income. Gains in state and local government and service employ ment have also added impetus to the upward march of total nonfarm employment and personal income. Fewer Jobless The net result of all these bits and pieces of improvement, especially those in employment, is perhaps best mirrored by the unemployment situation. Here the impact is clearly brought into focus by the rate of insured unemployment. This rate, which measures the number of jobless workers drawing unemployment benefits relative to the total num ber of workers covered by unemployment insurance, has steadily plunged downward. At the end of November, the rate of insured unemployment was at its lowest level since early 1958. This rosier picture with respect to joblessness at the local level was reflected in Louisiana’s major labor market areas. During the spring of 1962, Baton Rouge was re classified from an area of substantial unemployment to one of moderate unemployment, and New Orleans followed by earning a similar reclassification in the spring of 1963. The reasons listed by the U. S. labor officials for the reclassification of New Orleans included the staffing of the NASA space facilities, gains in fabricated metals and ship building, and job increases in transportation and public utilities. In this climate of higher income, thriving construction activity, more jobs, and fewer jobless, the recent gains in retail spending and heightened banking activity probably surprise no one. On the retail side, auto buying during the first ten months of 1963, reflected by the latest registra tion figures available, topped year-ago volume for the same period by 11 percent. Among the broader measures of consumer spending, sales tax collections, with only brief interruptions, have steadily mounted since the end of the 1961 recession. Although dipping slightly during recent months, the overall trend of bank debits has shown an upward direction during the past two years. Customer activity at the state’s deposit windows and loan departments also reflects the vigor of Louisiana’s business expansion. Loans at member banks located within the District portion of the state have steadily risen since early 1961. Deposits have also increased, though at a slower pace. Questions Turning from the past and looking into the future, many ask if the present expansion in Louisiana will continue? And, will the construction and manufacturing sectors, in particular, the space industry, continue to be the spark plug of the advance? Officials of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration expect employment expansion at the Michoud facility to continue through mid-1964 and then level out. At peak employment, annual payrolls of about $71 million are anticipated by the New Orleans Chamber of Commerce. The impact of this development on demand at the local retail and service level cannot help but buoy economic activity in general. Also, the recent high volume of construction awards may probably be considered a harbinger of added strength in Louisiana’s economy. Thus, while some may suffer from the post-holiday blues, Louis ianians should be enjoying their second look at the recent past. Jack L . C o o per This is one of a series in which economic developments in each of the Sixth District states are discussed. Develop ments in Mississippi’s economy were analyzed in the August 1963 R e v i e w , and a discussion of Tennessee’s economy is scheduled for a forthcoming issue. A REVIEW OF LOUISIANA'S ECONOMY, 1959-63 A compilation of articles devoted to Louisiana's economy that ap p e are d in this Bank's Monthly Review during 1959-64, to gether with revised monthly figures of major business indicators for Louisiana. The articles em phasize various aspects of Louisi an a's economic scene and often consider longer-run develop ments. Copies of this booklet, a s w ell as copies of A Review of G e o rg ia 's Econom y, 1960-63 and A Review of Mississippi's Econom y, 1960-63, the first two publications in this series, a re a v a ila b le upon request to the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of A tlan ta, A tlan ta, G e o rg ia 30303. •5 • The International Monetary System The tab le on Debits to In d ivid u al Dem and Deposit Accounts, w hich has been omitted this month, is scheduled to re ap p e a r in the Feb ru ary R eview . C opies of the current tab le a re a v a ila b le upon request to the Research D epartm ent o f this Bank. (Continued, from Page 3) European countries that are members of the Bank for International Settlements. She repaid these loans by draw ing from the Fund; but this assistance had established a precedent for much closer international monetary co operation. In 1961, much the same group of countries plus the United States established the “gold pool”, which is an arrangement whereby the members agree to buy and sell gold on the London market, acting through the Bank of England, in such a way as to prevent wide fluctuations in the price of gold. This arrangement also prevents them from competing with one another for gold at times when it might be scarce. If the gold price were to rise very much very suddenly, the suspicion might arise that one or more currencies were going to be devalued, and this might lead to panic selling of those currencies. The purpose of the “gold pool” is to prevent this sort of hysteria. Finally, in 1961 and 1962, the U. S. Treasury and Federal Reserve System initiated the foreign currency op erations mentioned at the beginning of this article. They have been described in a previous Monthly Review article (June 1963) and so will not be discussed here. To summarize, the principal features of the international monetary system as it exists today are: Fixed exchange rates that may be altered only rarely and with prior con sultation; a central fund of currencies that may be bor rowed by member countries to supplement their own inter national reserves; a firm commitment by the U. S. to sell gold to foreign monetary authorities at a fixed price; an undertaking by major member countries that their cur rencies may be freely bought and sold, at least by non residents, to finance current transactions; a general under standing that restoration of equilibrium in a country's bal ance of payments should not involve that country in serious deflation or inflation; and a well established, though informal, process of consultation and cooperation among the principal trading nations. This process of cooperation has led to the establishment of the “gold pool”, the re ciprocal currency arrangements, and the Fund’s supple mental lending agreement. Certainly, we are closer today to Hawtrey’s goal of an international monetary system managed through central bank cooperation than ever before. But is this sufficient? The present system is clearly not perfect, and many people believe that further changes are necessary. For one thing, the system we have been describing really applies only to the principal trading nations of North America and Europe, and Japan. In the rest of the world, exchange depreciation, multiple exchange rates, and exchange con trol are more the rule than the exception. For another, U. S. deficits have provided a flow of dollars that has supplemented other nations' reserves. But what will happen when the U. S. deficit is finally eliminated? Will new gold production be sufficient to provide for an ex panding international economy or should we begin now to overhaul the system? These and other problems will be discussed in a future issue of this Review. L aw rence F. M B a n k A n n o u n c e m e n ts On D ecem ber 2, the Bank o f H untsville, H untsville, A labam a, a new ly organ ized n on m em ber bank, opened fo r business and began to re m it at par fo r checks drawn on it when received from the F ederal R eserve Bank. Officers include Jam es D. Thornton, C hairm an o f the Board; John E. H atch, Jr., Chair man o f the E xecu tive C o m m ittee; D o c F ow lkes, President; and W alter V. L inde, Vice P residen t and Cashier. C apital is $4-50,000, and surplus and un divided profits, $225,000. The consolidation o f the Birm ingham Trust N ation al Bank, Birm ingham , A labam a, and Bank fo r Savings and Trusts, B ir m ingham , A labam a, becam e effective as o f the close o f business on D ecem ber 6. The consolidation was effected under the charter and title of B irm ingham Trust N ation al Bank. O n D e cem b er 9, the O cean N ation al Bank o f F ort L auder dale, F ort Lauderdale, Florida, a new ly organ ized m em ber bank, open ed fo r business and began to rem it at par. Officers are L. C. Judd, C hairm an o f the Board; W. H o w a rd A llen , President; J. C. M onaghan, E xecu tive Vice P resident; and T. C. Snellgrove, Vice P resident and Cashier. C apital is $250,000, and surplus and o th er capital funds, $125,000, as reported by the C o m p tro ller o f Currency at the tim e the charter was granted. The R ossville Bank, R ossville, G eorgia, a new ly organ ized n on m em ber bank, open ed fo r business and began to rem it at par on D ecem b er 13. Officers include J. J. A tkin s, P resident; R. B. H ow ard, V ice P resident; and G ordon L. N ichols, Cashier. C apital is $250,000, and surplus and un divided profits, $100,000. On D ecem ber 16, the Southgate N ation al Bank o f R ich m on d C oun ty, A ugusta, G eorgia, a n ew ly organ ized m em b er bank, open ed fo r business and began to rem it at par. Officers are Jack L. M addox, P resident; and H o w a rd M . H obson, Vice P resident and Cashier. C apital is $150,000, and surplus and other capital funds, $150,000, as rep o rted by the C om ptroller of C urrency at the tim e the charter w as granted. The D ixie N ation al Bank o f D a d e C oun ty, M iam i, Florida, a new ly organ ized m em b er bank, open ed fo r business and began to rem it at p a r on D ecem b er 19. Officers include Thom as F. C arney, President; R o g er M . Spring, E xecu tive Vice P resi dent; and John J. L oughlin, Cashier. C apital is $300,000, and surplus and other capital funds, $200,000, as reported by the C o m p tro ller o f Currency at the tim e the charter was granted. On D ecem b er 20, the Peninsula State Bank, D ayton a Beach Shores, Florida, a new ly organ ized n on m em ber bank, opened fo r business and began to rem it at par. Officers are H en ry C. C olem an, C hairm an o f the Board; R. F. L ivingston, President; C harles C. Foster, E xecu tive Vice P resident and Cashier; and R o b ert L. C olem an, Vice P resident. C apital is $250,000, and surplus and un divided profits, $75,000. STATISTICS O N THE DEVELOPING SOUTH The an nu al revision of Statistics on the D eveloping South is now a v a ila b le for distribution. This study classifies selected statistical d a ta for the District by state and also includes d ata for the District as a w hole, the eleven southeastern states, and the United States. Copies of the study may be obtained on request to the Research D epartm ent, Federal Reserve Bank of A tlan ta, A tlan ta, G e o rg ia 30303. a n sfield •6 • Sixth District Statistics Seasonally Adjusted ( A ll d a t a a r e in d e x e s , 1 9 5 7 - 5 9 = Latest Month (1963) S IX T H One Month Ago Two Months Ago Oct. 43,356 42,694r Nov. 137 138 Oct. 150 138 Oct. 148 178 Oct. 119 114 Dec. 131 140p Nov. 130p 129r Nov. Nov. 163 162 157 150 41,750r 135 125 131 120 120 125 163r 173r 39,408 128 103 94 126 122 122 160r 142r PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Oct. Nov. Nov. 112 111 130 107 117 105 94 107 99 95 117 113 99 80 3.4 41.3 256 149 347 121 96 165 112 111 130 107 117 108 93 106 99 94 117 112 99r 81 3.6 41.0 156 165 149 119 97r 160r 112 110 130 106 116 105 94 107 99 94 116 112 99 83 3.5 41.2 145 145 144 116 103 163r 110 108 127 104 108 104 92 107 95 96 109 110 97 83 4.4 41.0 128 119 136 114 97 156r Member Bank Loans* All B a n k s ....................................................... Leading C i t i e s ............................................ Nov. Dec. 164 153 161 155 158 154 143 137 Member Bank Deposits* All B a n k s ....................................................... Leading Cities ............................................ Bank D e b i t s * / * * ............................................ Nov. Dec. Nov. 136 129 144 135 127 144 135 125 148 125 120 132 FINANCE AND BANKING Two Months Ago One Year Ago 8,056 140 117 121 B,037r 137 135 115 114 110 116 Ill 72 2.6 41.2 114 109r 116 llO r 76 169 142 148 7,956r 135 127 123 7,414 126 99 116 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employm ent.......................................Nov. M a n u fa ctu rin g ............................................ Nov. Nonmanufacturing.......................................Nov. C o n stru ctio n ............................................ Nov. Farm Em ploym ent............................................ Nov. Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Nov. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Nov. 110 114 109 116 106 113 2.8 40.7 83 3.0 40.4 75 3.5 40.8 168 138 151 164 137 160 149 130 137 111 110 FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank L o a n s .......................................Nov. Member Bank D e p o s i t s ................................. Nov. Bank D e b i t s * * ..................................................Nov. LOUISIANA INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ...................... Farm Cash R e c e i p t s ............................ Department Store S a le s*/** . . . 5,709 120 122 108 Oct. Nov. Oct. Nov. 6,328 126 163 111 6,277r 128r 156 99 6,156r 128 119 111 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. 103 100 104 96 93 3.5 42.3 103 101 103 93 88 3.6 41.9r 103 99 103 92 86 3.8 42.9 102 98 102 86 83 4.7 42.8 Nov. Nov. Nov. 151 126 134 146 123 128 145 122 127 134 116 120 Oct. Nov. Oct. Nov. 3,369 140 146 102 3,360r 140r 190 88 3,122r 141 137 102 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. 114 118 113 108 70 4.4 40.2 114 118 112 105 72 4.6 40 .2r 114 117 113 109 67 4.5 40.8 112 115 111 109 88 4.8 40.4 Nov. Nov. Nov. 186 146 156 181 150 158 177 147 154 161 138 141 Oct. Nov. Oct. Nov. 6,998 134 144 114 6,787r 135 139 105 6,689r 133 106 114 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Niw. Nov. Nov. 112 113 112 122 84 3.8 41.2 112 112 111 125 83 3.9 41.7 111 112 110 122 93 4.0 41.3 109 110 109 121 82 5.5 41.0 Nov. Nov. Nov. 164 134 145 163 135 145 161 135 160 143 125 130 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT FINANCE AND BANKING Bank Debits*/" INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ................................. Farm Cash R e c e i p t s ....................................... Department Store S a l e s * * ............................ Oct. Nov. Oct. Nov. 6,002 126 124 115 5,912r 123 149 97 5,747r 122 144 102 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employm ent....................................... M a n u fa ctu rin g ............................................ Nonmanufacturing....................................... C o n stru ctio n ............................................ Farm Em p loym ent............................................ Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. 107 102 109 95 73 4.0 41.4 107 103 109 95r 82 4.2 40.5 107 101 109 95 81 4.1 40.8 105 101 107 92 76 5.1 40.6 FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank L o a n s ....................................... Member Bank D e p o s i t s ................................. Bank D e b i t s * * .................................................. Nov. Nov. Nov. 162 133 139 159 134 141 157 134 143 142 124 127 5,371 117 94 113 Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ...................... Farm Cash R e c e i p t s ............................ Department Store S a le s*/** . . . 2,857 131 97 107 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . FINANCE AND BANKING FLORIDA TENNESSEE Oct. 12,603 Nov. 169 Oct. 143 Nov. 166 12,321r 168r 142 155r 12,080r 163 117 165 11,762 155 121 153 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) 6,295 126 105 115 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. 119 125 118 89 97 3.3 41.4 119 126r 118 91 r 91 2.9 41 .l r 119 124 118 91 100 2.8 41.7 116 121 115 89 92 3.8 40.9 Nov. Nov. Nov. 165 139 145 161 138 146 157 138 147 140 127 136 FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank L o a n s ....................................... Member Bank D e p o s i t s ................................. Bank D e b i t s * * .................................................. One Month Ago MISSISSIPPI INCOME AND SPENDING Nonfarm Em ploym ent....................................... M a n u fa c tu rin g ............................................ Nonmanufacturing....................................... C o n stru c tio n ............................................ Farm Em ploym ent............................................ Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . Oct. Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ................................. Nov. Farm Cash R e c e i p t s .......................................Oct. Department Store S a l e s * * ............................Nov. Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . ALABAMA INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ................................. Farm Cash R e c e i p t s ....................................... Department Store S a l e s * * ............................ Latest Month (1963) GEORGIA D IS T R IC T Nonfarm Em ploym ent....................................... M a n u fa ctu rin g ............................................ A p p a re l....................................................... C h e m ic a ls .................................................. Fabricated M e t a l s ................................. F o o d ............................................................. Lbr., Wood Prod., Furn. & Fix. . . . Paper ....................................................... Primary M e t a l s ....................................... T e x tile s....................................................... Transportation Equipment . . . . Nonmanufacturing....................................... C o nstru ctio n ............................................ Farm Em p loym ent............................................ Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Construction Contracts* ................................. Residential .................................................. All O t h e r ....................................................... Industrial Use of Electric Power . . . . Cotton Consumption** ................................. Petrol. Prod, in Coastal La. and M iss.* * / * * * * o t h e r w is e .) One Year Ago INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ................................. Farm Cash R e c e i p t s ....................................... C r o p s ............................................................ L iv e s t o c k ....................................................... Department Store S a l e s * / * * ...................... Department Store S t o c k s * ............................ Instalment Credit at Banks, • / • • • ( M il. S) New Lo a n s....................................................... R e p a y m e n ts.................................................. 1 0 0 , u n le s s in d ic a t e d Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . FINANCE AND BANKING Bank Debits*/" •For Sixth District area only. Other totals for entire six states. **Daily average basis. p Preliminary. r Revised. ‘ ‘ ♦Estimates of consumer instalment credit have been revised for the period July 1962 through September 1963. •♦♦♦Figures reflect revision of seasonal adjustment factors. Sources: Personal income estimated by this Bank; nonfarm, mfg. and nonmfg. emp., mfg. payrolls and hours, and unemp., U. S. Dept, of Labor and cooperating state agencies; cotton consumption, U. S. Bureau of Census; construction contracts, F. W. Dodge Corp.; petrol, prod., U. S. Bureau of Mines; elec. power prod., Fed. Power Comm.; farm cash receipts and farm emp., U.S.D.A. Other indexes based on data collected by this Bank. All indexes calculated by this Bank. •7 • D I S T R I C T B U S I N E S S C O N D I T I O N S r redom inantly good reports received at the start of 1964 indicate that the District's economy moved ahead during the last months of the old y e a r. Sm all gains characterize nonagricultural em ploym ent, w hile large fall and e a rly w inter sales are buoying farm income. Construction contract aw ards rem ain at a high level. Christmas shop pers accelerated the pace of departm ent store sales to a new high for the season, and banks continue to meet the credit needs of borrowers. B illio n s o f D o lla rs “ A n n u a l R ate S e a s . Adj. IS Nonagricultural em ploym ent in the District advanced m oderately in Novem ber, despite sm all decreases in A labam a and Florida. Manu facturing employment registered no change from October, as advances in Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee were offset by declines in other District states. Food processing dropped from the high October level, but gains in paper, apparel, and primary metals acted as a counterbalance. Manufacturing payrolls rose as a result of longer average weekly hours, with the gain extend ing to all District states except Louisiana and Tennessee. Nonmanufacturing employment was up slightly, while construction employment edged down again. The November rate of insured unemployment for the District was the lowest since September 1953. The outlook for the farm economy is good, although a few w eak spots w ere apparent at the end of 1963. In some local areas, drought and cold weather slowed farm activities and shrank some farmers’ incomes. A highly successful crop harvest, however, generally boosted total farm income. Most farm debts were being repaid on schedule, and sales to farmers were brisk. Farmers’ costs, though rising, were not increasing precipitously. Construction contracts aw arded continue to show strength for the y e a r through Novem ber. Residential construction contracts have been booming all year and reached a new, all-time monthly high in October. Nonresidential construction contracts also reveal sustained vigor, far surpassing the year-ago level. The supply of mortgage funds is ample. Holiday shopping in December led to a handsome gain in depart ment store sales, according to prelim inary reports. Final figures reveal that sales in November also outstripped those of the preceding month. Follow ing the moderate increase in October, consumer credit outstanding at District banks remained virtually unchanged during November. Auto debt outstanding also showed no change in November, as increased repayments of old loans offset an increase in the volume of new auto loans. Personal income continued to expand through October, and indications point to a further expansion in November. On a year-to-date basis, the first ten months of 1963 show income gains for all states in the District. )S District banks provided am ple credit in Novem ber to facilitate economic advances. Banks in major cities have taken advantage of increased reserves to reduce their indebtedness to the Federal Reserve Bank and to make additional funds available for continued business expansion. Loans for commercial and industrial purposes continued to lead the way at these banks, as strong loan demand from non-durable manufacturers persisted. Excess Reserves , Borrowings from F. R. Bank 1961 1962 "Seas. adj. figure; not an index. -o- 1963 4.0 7 1964 N o t e : D a t a o n w h ic h sta te m e n ts a re b a s e d s e a s o n a l in flu e n ce s. h a v e b e e n a d ju s t e d w h e n e v e r p o s s ib le t o e lim in a t e