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Atlanta, Georgia January • 1962 Also in this issue: M IG R A TO R Y FARM LABO R IN THE SOUTH'S EC O N O M Y PARTIAL RECO V ERY IN M AN U FACTU RIN G EM PLOYM ENT DISTRICT BUSINESS CO N D ITIO N S SIXTH DISTRICT STATISTICS SIXTH DISTRICT INDEXES Workers Leave Southern Farms “Mechanical cotton pickers have become a boon to growers, but they are throwing hundreds of field hands out of work,” reported a local newspaper recently. No clearer observation can be made about the South’s present farm labor scene. Following World War II, increased farm mechanization hastened changes in agriculture, and the foremost of these was a cutback in the labor force. Between 1950 and 1960, total farm employment in District states shrank from an average of 1,738,000 workers to 1,083,000, or 38 percent. This decline suggests that farm workers must have changed both jobs and residences. Be cause future adjustments in the farm labor force will influence Southern economic growth, this pattern of change is of great significance. Exodus Is W idespread Total farm employment declined during the Fifties in all District states because there was a great loss of family workers. From 1950 to 1960 the number of these workers employed in September, when the farm work force reaches a peak, fell 43 percent. The contraction was great est in areas where family labor figures prominently on small farms. As small units were abandoned or consolidated and the harvest operations for cotton and other crops were more completely mechanized, these workers were forced to seek other jobs. They also found it necessary to leave farms as cash cropping, heavily dependent upon labor, de clined and livestock production increased. Although many workers left because individually owned and op erated small farms closed down, a number of them did so because farm tenancy was waning. This downtrend in tenancy— especially pro- W orkers on Farms in Sixth District States Septem ber 1950-60 Thousands of Workers % sem B a n k o f T^t/anta Thousands of Workers Unpaid Farm Fam ily Members W orking 15 or More Hours, Sixth District Percent D ecrease, 1959 from 1954 g U 5 5 % or More 8. Ala.-Miss. Timber — 46 9. Sand Mountain ■— 54 4 0 % to 5 4 % 17. SugarCane 18. Peanut . . Q . . 3 9 % or Less — 71 — 60 nounced in the Piedmont, Silt Loam, Limestone, and Peanut areas— reflects a notable decrease in the num ber of Negro families operating farms. The reduction in the region’s hired farm work force was less pronounced than in family workers, but it was signifi cant nonetheless. Between 1950 and 1960 the number of hired workers declined 17 percent. In the Silt Loam and Limestone areas, however, the number actually increased as some farm owners substituted hired labor for tenant families. Farm Labor M oves to Small Urbanized Areas Where did the people leaving the Southeast’s farm labor force go, and what types of jobs did they take? Many of them, both white and Negro, moved to rural nonfarm and urban areas, judging from data in the 1950 and 1960 Censuses of Population. In 1950, less than half of the District’s people lived in places with more than 2,500 in habitants. By 1960, the ratio had increased to 60 per cent. In each state, urban areas generally grew at the expense of smaller places and rural areas. When farm labor moved to the nonfarm economy, it did not necessarily gravitate to large urban centers. Large gains in population did occur in places with population of 50,000 or more, but there were also marked increases in places with 10,000 to 25,000 inhabitants. White and Negro workers leaving farms evidently flowed into certain areas in disproportionate numbers, according to changes in total population between 1950 and 1960. Many Negroes moved into small- and mediumsize cities, if changes in the ratio of nonwhite to white residents there are any indication. This ratio increased significantly in 29 such cities in District states and in four large cities. Negroes also tended to move from rural areas into small communities having 1,000 to 2,500 inhabitants. Both Negro and white farm workers, of course, migrated to other regions in the nation. Lacking industrial training, farm workers, white and Negro, naturally sought work in nonfarm industries that utilize large numbers of semiskilled and unskilled workers. The latest available occupation data, obtained from the 1950 Census of Population, indicate that such workers are most numerous in the mining, construction, lumber and furniture, food, and textile industries, in wholesale and retail trade activities, and in service work for public agencies and private households. These industries are not only found in large cities, but also in numerous small- and medium-size ones throughout the Southeast. Workers migrating from farms no doubt found em ployment opportunities as operatives and kindred workers. This class of employment ranks first in importance for white workers and second for Negroes, according to the 1950 Census of Population. It includes jobs in garages, laundries, trucking companies, and sawmills. Because em ployment in the crafts— carpentry, electrical installation and repair, painting, plumbing— is second in importance for white workers, some farm labor presumably found jobs in those specialties. White farm migrants also may have taken jobs as service workers and laborers. We can infer from the Census data that Negro workers found their principal job opportunities as household work ers, as operatives and kindred workers, and as laborers in the wood processing, chemicals, construction, and stone, clay, and glass industries. Some also became craftsmen— principally automobile repairmen, painters, masons, plas terers, and carpenters. Future Movement The adjustments that occurred in the farm labor force during the Fifties are likely to continue throughout the next decade, a prospect that has great meaning for the Southeast’s economic growth. As farmers continue to en large their enterprises and as small farms are consolidated, the downtrend in total employment will continue, al though at a lesser rate. This in turn will stimulate farm ing technology and ultimately increase productivity and income in farm and nonfarm economies. Changes in farm employment reflect a reasonable de gree of labor and job mobility among farm workers. Al though these workers have not always moved into nonfarm pursuits painlessly, they have flowed to places where their labor could be used profitably. Job opportunities for displaced farm workers may increase in rural places as the national Rural Development Program gains headway. Congress recently gave the Program new impetus when it passed the Area Redevelopment Act. Workers will be needed in the future, as in the past, by industries that have traditionally offered employment to semiskilled or unskilled farm labor. As these industries absorb underemployed or displaced white and Negro farm workers, the region’s economy will be strengthened and its further growth assured. A r th u r H . K a n tn e r • 2 • Migratory Farm Labor in the South’s Economy The Need for Seasonal W orkers Expands in Florida The move from farm to city during the past decade, dis cussed in the first article, involved mainly small farm operators and tenants and their families. Statistics show that very few hired workers left farms, and this is in part because the number of migratory workers was maintained and even increased in some areas. Migratory laborers are people who move about performing seasonal farm jobs, mainly harvesting perishable farm crops such as tomatoes, strawberries, and oranges. There are about 85,000 such workers employed each year on District farms. Their average annual earnings are under $700, less than half of the region’s per capita income. It is difficult to understand why these people are willing to work for such low wages when wages in general have risen strikingly in recent years. It is surprising too that such a large number of these workers should be employed in a farming system that is mechanizing at so rapid a pace. No doubt the explana tions of these enigmas can be found if we look a little closer at migrant workers and their economic position. Movement Patterns About 75 to 90 percent of all mi grants employed on District farms find work in Florida. Because of the seasonal nature of producing the fruits and vegetables for which Florida is famous, a definite pattern of migration has been formed. The state’s crops mature in the winter, so migrants work there from October or November until April or May. When harvests are com pleted, most of them move northward to North Carolina or Virginia to pick strawberries and beans. A little later they may move to New Jersey and New York to pick tomatoes and squash, and finally on to Maryland and Pennsylvania, where they end the season in September or The Migrant W orker Characteristics The region’s migrant farm work force is largely made up of Negroes, most of whom were born and reared in the Southeast, and some Mexicans from the South Central states. As their name implies, migrants are always moving, seldom staying in one place longer than three or four months. Most of them are uneducated farm tenants who have been displaced by farm consolida tion and mechanization. Because of this and because they have no skills other than farming, they have few alterna tive uses for their labor. M igratory W orkers in Florida 1958-60 N um ber of Workers Home State Alabama Arkansas Florida Georgia Louisiana Mississippi Missouri New York North Carolina South Carolina Tennessee Texas Other Total 1958 1959 1960 637 308 35,424 753 942 397 54,465 867 986 83 170 794 368 393 344 96 40,356 1,020 54 221 754 836 514 231 2,244 563 54,528 563 425 2,501 482 79 1,117 . . . 60,301* 375 18 118 63,013 * Some of the increase due to improved reporting. Florida Annual Agricultural and Food Processing Report. S o u rc e: Pno/o b y f l o n a a S ta te N ew s Bu re a u October by harvesting apples. Then they return to Florida to begin the cycle again. While this pattern is followed year after year by most migrant workers, there are those who live and work dur ing the summer in Southeastern states and move to Florida to work during the winter. A few others find jobs for a short time each year in the strawberry fields of Louisiana and Tennessee. Earnings Southern migrants earned an average of $644 for their farm work in 1959, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Since migrants are de prived of the fringe benefits usually enjoyed by farm workers, those wages represent everything they got from the farm. One reason these earnings seem so low is be cause migrants are not employed regularly. In 1959, Southern migrants worked only 120 days, on the average, partly because they spent much time traveling from job to job and partly because work was often unavailable. Migrants harvest crops that are generally delicate, and they can do so only when weather conditions are just right. Then too, time is often lost while crops are matur ing. • 3 • The M arket for M igratory Labor Because migrants will work for low wages, their job op portunities have persisted. Farmers have had little in centive to substitute machinery for this low-cost hand labor. Unlike harvesting equipment that is expensive for farmers to keep up even when not in use, migrant work ers cost the farmer nothing when unemployed. More often than not they live off the farm in migrant labor camps or nearby towns and are paid on a piecework basis for the jobs performed. Perhaps a more fundamental reason the market for migrant labor has been maintained is that physical ob stacles— some engineering, some botanical— prevent the mechanical harvesting of many crops. In the first place, most fruit and vegetables grown in the South are tender and easily bruised, and mechanizing the harvesting often means a sacrifice in the quality of the crop in question. Furthermore, most citrus and vegetables do not ripen evenly. This means they must be selectively harvested, and doing this with machines is particularly difficult. In Florida soil characteristics often give the migrant worker an advantage over the machine. Much of the land used for growing sugar cane, for example, is mucky. Rain causes the cane to fall over in the row, preventing ma chines from traversing the fields without damaging the cane. In addition to any economic and physical obstacles to mechanization that have helped migrants retain their jobs, the market for their labor has been protected and even increased in Florida by the vast expansion in the state’s sugar cane and citrus production. According to the Florida Employment Service, Florida's sugar cane acreage is expected to reach 100,000 acres this year, or three times the acreage two years ago. Although citrus production has not increased nearly so rapidly, the industry’s growth record in recent years has been quite impressive. P h oto b y F lo r id a S ta te N ew s Bu re a u harvesters are grown in District states other than Florida. Despite this need for workers in Florida, experts believe there is little prospect for much improvement in wages. According to a Florida Legislative Council, which investi gated migratory labor practices in that state, other South eastern states seem to have unlimited numbers of agricul tural workers eager to find seasonal employment and will ing to migrate. As the movement of people away from Southeastern farms continues during the next few years, the supply of such workers unable to find other jobs may remain large. In the long run, however, the supply of migrants will probably diminish. There is evidence already that the level of education among migrants is increasing. A survey in New York of migrant workers, most of whom are South ern, revealed that between 1953 and 1957 the median level of education of adult migrants rose about one-half a grade. It indicated also that migrant children stay in school longer now than they did a few years ago. As their educational level improves migrants will probably find more nonfarm job opportunities and obtain higher wages. At the same time, it is likely that farmers will eventually place more emphasis on developing adequate mechanical methods for harvesting their delicate crops than they have in the past. Just how rapid the shift from migrant to mechanical harvesters will be is not certain. Nevertheless, the trend in farming is toward mechanization. It may be many years before the need for migrants diminishes significantly, but when it does and when the number of migrants willing to work under adverse conditions has been reduced, the District’s economy will be strengthened. N. Ph oto b y F lo rid a S ta te N ew s B u re a u The Migrant's Economic Future If gains in output of Florida’s sugar cane and citrus con tinue, there may be an increase in the need for migrant workers in that state. A similar increase elsewhere in the District is not likely because few crops utilizing migrant C a r s o n B r a n a n The Sixth Federal Reserve District embraces a land area of 247,778 square miles. It is the fifth largest of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts and the largest east of the Mississippi River. The door to the main vault at the Atlanta office weighs thirty tons. • 4 • Partial Recovery in Manufacturing Employment Percent 105 ~ 1957 =100 " Seas. Adi. United States 1959 1957 Manufacturing Employment Sixth District Percent Percent I960 Recent developments in manufacturing employment in District states are a mixture of the good and the not-quite-good-enough. The good is represented, on the right-hand side of the chart across the top of the page, by the gain in employment that occurred after February 1961; the not-quite-good-enough is represented by the failure of employment to completely regain ground lost between May 1960 and February 1961. During that period of recession, 62,000 District factory workers lost their jobs; through November 1961, only 36,500 had regained factory employment. What happens in manufacturing is important, for factory work provides about one out of every four nonfarm jobs in this region. Moreover, since factory workers typically bear the brunt of employment declines associated with recessions, observers pay close attention to subsequent improvements in manufacturing employment when assessing the vigor of recovery. Diverse Changes in District The trend of District manufacturing employment since February 1961 has not been one of steady, uninterrupted gains. Rather, the improvement has come in steps. Substantial gains were made through July in an initial period of im provement. Little change occurred from July through September. Since then, manufacturing employment has improved again. This overall picture is the net result of diverse trends among types of manu facturing employment, as is suggested by the charted indexes of employment in the region’s major manufacturing industries. In the initial period of recovery, a sharp gain in apparel manufacturing almost took the industry’s employment to its previous high, and employment in the primary metals industry also rose sharply. Starting from a low point in March, transportation equipment re covered substantially. Slower, but steady gains were registered by employment in the paper, textiles, and lumber industries. These gains more than offset slight declines in the food, chemicals, and fabricated metals industries. The lack of change that followed the first upswing reflected an even more diverse picture. Strikes in the automobile industry temporarily confused de veloping trends in transportation equipment and, as their depressing influence on employment totals was left behind, a paper mill strike in Louisiana brought a decline in paper employment. More fundamental was the weakening of employment in the apparel industry after July. Since last September the resumption of increases in total manufacturing em ployment have reflected renewed improvement in the transportation equip ment and lumber industries and belated gains in fabricated metals and food. Slight declines have occurred in textiles and primary metals. It seems that the path toward complete recovery of previous employment levels has not been an easy one. All major types of District employment are, as a result, still below earlier high levels. Recent gains in some types have been encouraging, but the lack of more widespread increases continued to hamper complete recovery in total manufacturing employment even nine months after the low point of recession in February 1961. Following the low point of the • 5 • recession ending in the first part of 1958, manufacturing had surpassed its previous high after nine months. The Longer Hun View These developments in District manufacturing employ ment are not surprising in view of what has been happen ing to manufacturing employment in the nation. Recur rent upswings and downswings have occurred in em ployment in the United States, as is apparent from the chart, and recent recovery has also been incomplete. More significantly, in the previous upswing from mid-1958 through early 1960, employment failed to reach the level of early 1957. Thus, manufacturing employment has been trending downward in the nation. While employment was about 6 percent lower in November 1961 than in early 1957, however, factory output of goods was actually about 10 percent larger. This means, of course, that productivity has increased greatly. We can be sure that similar, probably even greater, gains in productivity have occurred in District states, for the relatively recent industrial growth here has meant the installation of newer, more efficient productive processes. In view of this, the longer run developments in manu facturing employment have really been rather favorable. This is particularly true in relation to national develop ments. District states have actually shown a gain in total manufacturing employment since early 1957, whereas the nation experienced a decline. The District’s gain, more over, occurred despite downtrends in some of its most im portant types of employment, such as textile and lumber. While economic forces may have slowed the upward march of manufacturing employment in District states, they do not preclude full recovery in the months ahead. Undoubtedly the resumption of gains in October and November is a hopeful sign that this is true. P h i l i p M. W e b s t e r Department Store Sales and Inventories* Nov. Oct. 1961 +11 + 16 + 18 +2 +8 + 12 +3 +5 +5 _________Percent Change Sales Inventories Nov. 30, 1961 from 1961 from 11 Months Nov. 1961 from Oct. 31, Nov. 30, 1960 1961 1960 1960 +6 +0 +6 +5 + 6 +9 +9 + 1 +6 +0 —5 +0 +6 +4 +6 +6 —3 +9 — 5 + 6 +9 +1 +6 +6 —3 +5 —1 —2 —2 + 10 +5 +1 —2 —1 —2 +2 —1 —1 +4 +1 —0 +0 —6 —3 —3 +5 — 11 —3 —5 +7 —2 +3 —7 —5 —1 +5 +2 +5 + 13 +4 +4 +9 — 1 + 3 +4 +1 —1 +3 +6 + 1 —1 +5 + 2 +5 n.a. n.a. —0 —3 —1 +5 Place ALABAMA .............................. . . Birmingham......................... . . M ob ile................................... . . Montgomery......................... • • F L O R ID A ................................... . . Daytona Beach .................... . . Jacksonville......................... . . Miami A r e a ......................... • • M ia m i.............................. • • Orlando .............................. St. Petersburg-Tampa Area . . . + 19 GEORGIA .................................... . + 18 A tla n ta **................................... . + 21 A u g u s t a .............................. Columbus.............................. . . + 24 M acon................................... . . +21 R o m e * * .............................. • • + 4 +7 Sa annah .................................... . LO U ISIA N A.................................. . . + 16 Baton Rcuge ......................... . . +17 New O rlean s......................... . . +17 M IS S IS S IP P I......................... . . +12 Jackson .............................. . . + 16 M e rid ia n .............................. ......................... . . + 10 TENNESSEE Bristol-Kingsport—1 Johnson City** . . . . +2 +0 • • +5 +6 —2 +3 Bristol (Tenn. & Va.)** • • +9 —2 —0 Chattanooga ......................... • • + 2 +0 +5 —1 —6 K no xville.............................. . . +15 DISTRICT .................................... . + 13 +4 +3 +2 + 1 *Repcrting stores account fcr over 90 percent of total District department store sales. **In order to permit publication of figures for this city, a special sample has been constructed that is not ccnfined exclusively to department stores. Figures fcr non department stores, however, are not used in computing the District percent changes, n.a. Not Available. Personal Income in Sixth District States (seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates, in Millions of Dollars) O ct A 1961 A la b a m a F lo r id a G e o r g ia L o u is ia n a M is s is s ip p Tennessee T o ta l . . . i . . 1 Preliminary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 ,u b 9 1 0 ,4 8 6 6 ,7 0 9 5 ,4 6 2 2 ,8 2 0 5 ,7 2 0 3 6 ,2 6 6 S ep t.2 1961 5 ,0 U 2 1 0 ,5 2 9 6 ,5 6 7 5 ,3 3 8 2 ,6 4 2 5 ,7 1 4 3 5 ,7 9 1 A u g .2 1961 4 ,9 6 9 1 0 ,4 5 9 6 ,5 3 2 5 ,3 6 8 2 ,7 1 0 5 ,7 2 2 3 5 ,7 6 1 Oct. 1960 4 ,8 5 7 1 0 ,u 4 7 6 ,3 7 1 5 ,2 6 4 2 ,5 6 8 5 ,5 0 5 3 4 ,6 1 2 2 Revised. Debits to Individual Demand Deposit Accounts ________________________________ Un Thousands of Dcllars)________________________________ Nov. 1961 Oct. 1961 Nov. 1960 ALABAMA 44,909 Anniston . . . . 45,088 41,308 920,556 Birmingham . . . 904,451 815,829 43,072 39,995 Dothan . . . . 35,845 37,731 38,355 Gadsden . . . . 36,487 86,181 Huntsville* . . . 90,800 80,650 301,998 306,712 305,998 Mobile . . . . 184,269 188,267 Montgomery . . . 173,880 33,472 30,669 29,856 Selma* . . . . 65,543 Tuscaloosa* . . . 70,246 56,588 1,711,130 Total Reporting Cities 1,720,470 1,577,155 825,094 825,865 Other Citiesf . . . 759,457r FLORIDA 53,140 54,184 55,003 Daytona Beach* 204,608 194,330 194,035 Fort Lauderdale* . 43,724 45,561 42,758 Gainesville* . . . 816,710 840,536 804,732 Jacksonville . . . 17,283 17,161 16,026 Key West* . . . Lakeland* . . . 77,545 73,943 76,680 930,970 863,349 879,147 M iam i.................... 1,360,648 Greater Miami* 1,270,258 1,271,622 257,802 243,062 Orlando . . . . 236,855 83,239 85,348 83,698 Pensacola . . . St. Petersburg . . 225,201 207,083 208,559 71,029 n.a. n.a. Tallahassee* . . 447,201 429,615 419,475 Tampa . . . . 148,474 141,226 W. Palm-Palm Bch.* 121,576 3,577,437 Total Reporting Cities 3,832,293 3,530,200 1,541,137 1,542,799 Other Citiesf . . . l,550,089r GEORGIA 60,354 61,446 54,724 Albany . . . . 42,671 46,452 42,597 Athens* . . . . 2,319,972 2,412,200 Atlanta . . . . 2,072,649 123,687 123,189 113,567 Augusta . . . . 28,822 23,912 Brunswick . . . 29,686 121,155 Columbus . . . . 115,895 106,209 Elberton . . . . 9,084 9,954 9,799 47,662 Gainesville* . . . 46,465 48 067 Griffin* . . . . 22,039 21,013 20,763 17,152 16,588 20,421 LaGrange* . . . 128,860 Macon.................... 146,293 119,079 34,119 Marietta* . . . 34,186 29,212 22,915 Newnan . . . . 21,243 18 218 Rome* . . . . 52,139 53,748 51,330 Savannah . . . . 160,691r 179,289 174,360 35,293 36,565 Valdosta . . . . 35 506 3,356,802 Total Reporting Cities 3,237,694 2,926,744r Other Citiesf . . . 1,083,302 1,030,613 967,575r LOUISIANA Alexandria* . . . 76,269 74,881 69,419 Baton Rouge . . . 271,091 271,573 255,750 68,034 Lafayette* . . . 66,973 61.484 Lake Charles . . 83,358 81,263 80,896r New Orleans . . . 1,316,851 1,342,330 1,344,534 Total Reporting Cities 1,815,024 1,837,599 l,812,083r Other Citiesf . . . 601,459 595,666 566,531r MISSISSIPPI Bilcxi-Gulfport* 56,282 56,191 51,710 Hattiesburg . . . 37,759 38,366 36,529 Jackscn . . . . 373,134 357,371 324 697 Laurel* . . . . 28,899 28,084 29,331 Meridian . . . . 47,294 49,655 46,101 Natchez* . . . . 24,342 22,991 22,736 Vicksburg . . . 23,537 23,514 23 185 Total Reporting Cities 591,156 576.263 534,289 Other Citiesf . . . 297,194 303,045 278,112r ThNMESSEE Bristol* . . . . 50,824 54,775 45,128 345 450 Chattanooga . . . 354,575 317 269 Johrson City* . . 44,188 41,868 42,880 94,957 Kingsport* . . . 89,743 84,949 Knoxville . . . 257,163 268 208 241,640 Nashville . . . . 864,117 772 517 812,001 Total Reporting Cities 1,656,699 1,621,170 1,504,383 Other Citiesf . . . 591,733 585.331 604,7r 2r SIXTH DISTRICT 17.740,566 17.616,409 16,611,370r Reporting Cities 12,853.336 12,680,401 11.884,854r Other Citiesf . . 4,887,230 4,936 008 4,72^ 516r Total, 32 Cities . . 10,962,316 10,898,616 10,199,999r UI\liT-n STATES 344 Cities . . . 272,541,000 275,115,000 235,100,000 Percent Change Year-to-date 11 Months Nov. 1961 from 1961 Nov. from Oct. 1960 1961 1960 —0 +2 —7 —2 +5 + i —2 —8 —7 + 1 —0 +9 + 13 + 12 +3 + 13 —0 +6 +3 + 16 +9 +9 +3 +2 +7 —4 + 11 +2 +6 + 1 +8 +3 +2 +4 +5 —4 +3 + 1 +5 +8 +7 +6 —2 +9 n.a. +4 +5 +7 —0 +2 +5 +2 +4 +8 +1 +6 +7 +9 —1 +8 n.a. +7 + 22 +9 —1 —3 —0 +2 + 1 +7 +1 +3 +3 —0 —2 —1 n.a. + 1 + 11 +2 +2 —2 —8 —0 —3 —4 —9 —3 +5 —3 — 12 —0 +8 —3 +3 —3 —4 —5 + 10 + 0 + 12 +8 + 21 +9 —7 —3 +6 — 19 +8 + 17 + 26 +2 + 12 —1 + 11 +7 +2 +6 +4 + 2 + 11 +6 —7 +1 +3 — 15 +3 +4 +4 +0 —2 +2 +4 +6 +2 + 0 —2 +3 —2 —1 + 1 + 10 +6 +9 +3 —2 +0 +6 —2 —3 +3 —3 —1 —1 + 1 —0 —2 +4 +3 —5 +6 +0 +3 —2 +9 +3 + 15 —1 +3 +7 +2 + 11 +7 +7 +1 +6 —0 + 1 —1 +7 +5 + 1 —7 —3 + 6 +6 —4 +6 +2 + 1 +1 +1 —1 +1 + 13 +9 +3 + 12 +6 + 12 + 10 —2 +7 +8 +3 +7 +9 +5 —2 +4 +6 +8 +6 +4 +3 +3 +3 +2 —1 + 16 +9 *Not included in total for 32 cities that are part of the national debit series maintained by the Board of Governors. fEstim ated. r Revised. n.a. Not Available. S ix th D is tr ic t In d e x e s Seasonally Adjusted (1947-49 = 100) I9 6 0 SIXTH DISTRICT OCT. Nonfarm Employment.............................. 142 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 123 A p p arel.............................................188 Chemicals***...................................134r Fabricated M e t a ls * * * .................... 191r Food*5- * ............................................. 117r Lbr., Wood Prod., Fur. & Fix. . . 76 P ap er..................................................166 Primary Metals .............................. 92 T e x tile s ............................................. 86 Transportation Equipment . . . . 205 Nonmanufacturing Employment . . . 150 Manufacturing Payrolls.............................. 220 Cotton Consumpticn**.............................. 83 Electric Power Production**.................... 372 Petrel. Prod, in Coastal Louisiana & M ississippi**.................... 232 Construction C o n tr a c ts * ......................... 339 Residential............................................. 367 All Other ............................................. 316 Farm Cash R eceipts...................................167 Crops.......................................................157 Livestock ............................................. 186 Department Store S a le s* /* * .................... 189 Department Store Stocks*......................... 235 Furniture Store S a l e s * / * * .................... 138 Member Bank D e p o s its * ......................... 188 Member Bank L o a n s * .............................. 353 Bank D a b its* ............................................. 265 Turnover of Demand Deposits* . . . . 152 In Leading C itie s ...................................159 Outside Leading C i t i e s .........................113 ALABAMA Nonfarm Em ploym ent.........................125 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 103 Manufacturing Payrolls.........................187 Department Store S a les* * ....................167 Furniture Stcre S a l e s .........................117r Member Bank D ep osits.........................169 Member Bank L oans.............................. 293 Farm Cash R eceipts..............................182 Bank Debits ........................................ 242 FLORIDA Nonfarm E m ploym ent......................... 201 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 207 Manufacturing Payrolls......................... 399 Department Store S a les* * .................... 262 Furniture Stcre S a l e s .........................164 Member Bank D eposits......................... 246 Member Bank L oans.............................. 561 Farm fash R eceipts..............................212 Bank Debits ........................................ 405 GEORGIA Nonfarm Em ploym ent.........................135 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 121 Manufacturino Payrolls.........................211 Department Store S a les* * .................... 172 Furniture Stcre S a l e s .........................133 Member Bank D eposits.........................170 Member Bank L oans.............................. 286 Farm Cash R eceipts.............................. 204 Bank Debits ........................................ 249 LOUISIANA Nonfarm E m ploym ent.........................129 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 94 Manufacturing Payrolls.........................170 Department Store Sales*/** . . . . 151 Furniture Store S a le s * .........................170 Member Bank Deposits* ....................163 Member Bank L^ans* ......................... 329 Farm Cash R eceipts..............................115 Bank D e b its * ........................................ 212 MISSISSIPPI Nonfarm Em ploym ent.........................135 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 132 Manufacturing Payrolls......................... 242 Department Store Sales*/** . . . . 159 Furniture Store S a le s * ......................... 108 Member Bank Deposits* .................... 204 Member Bank L o a n s * ......................... 431 Farm Cash R eceip ts..............................141 Bank D e b its * ........................................ 242 TENNESSEE Nonfarm Em ploym ent.........................126 Manufacturing Employment . . . . 126 Manufactured Payrolls......................... 221 Department Store Sales*/** . . . . 163 Furniture Store S a le s * ......................... 99 Member Bank Deposits* .................... 171 Member Bank L o a n s * .........................313 Farm Cash R eceipts.............................. 122 Bank D e b its * ........................................ 224 *For Sixth District area only. NOV. DEC. J JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. 141 121 187 134r 189 118 73 164 87 84 190 150 212 79 383 141 121 186 134 186r 118 73 165 86 83 183 149 214 79 368 141 121 190 133r 186r 118 74 166 87 84 187 149 220 82 376 142 122 191 133r 185 117 74 167 91 84 188 150 225 85 379 142 123 193 133r 184r 118 74 167 92 85 191 150 232 88 391 142 124 198 133r 181r 117 74 168 93 85 193 150 236 89 391 142 124 196 133r 184r 117 74 168 94 85 184 150 232 89 396 143 123 194 133r 183r 116r 74 165 92 85 190 151 232 88 398 143 124 193 132r 187r 117r 75 164 94 85 204 151 235r 92 377 143 124 194 133 190 117 75 165 91 85 203 151 240 91 n.a. 142 122 188 134r 191r 117 76 165 88 85 185 150 217 83 369 141 122 189 134r 191 r 119r 75 164 89 85 190 149 218 79 390 142 121 187 134r 190r 118 73 163 86 84 191 150 213 78 401 233 324 308 336 156 131 201 181r 235 133 188 352 283 153 162 111 250 288 304 276 132 94 199 187 233 134 189 359 282 151 163 119 239 309 291 324 134 97 191 177 224 127 189 351 287 162 176 125 237 315 330 303 145 123 191 181 221 130 192 355 279 156 168 116 241 324 343 309 136 104 205 178 221 134 189 353 293 155 167 122 244 345 362 330 126 99 189 183 229 135 191 354 268 146 164 111 253 360 388 337 136 113 192 175 225 129 191 357 288 165 183 127 252 372 412 340 141 117 191 185 227 130 189 355 287 154 175 119 243 384 393 377 125 97 175 194 227 135 193 353 275 162 179 129 243 394 402 387 150 139 187 179 239 132 190 359 284 166 189 122 239 402 406 400 131 104 197 192 239 143 194 361 281 152 164 126 251r 375 431 329 173 162 194 188 242 139 199 363 287 161 170 119 253 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 189 241 138 197 365 303 161 170 117 125 103 183 155 111 165 294 130 249 124 102 175 165 113 167 299 121 243 125 101 175 158 103 169 300 115 247 123 101 175 156 106 170 299 126 238 123 101 177 166 112 167 303 133 248 123 102 183 173 124 169 298 115 231 124 102 185 163 101 163 304 126 264 125 103 191 168 112 162 301 118 251 125 104 196 177 111 163 295 117 239 125 105 195 171 117 163 302 113 253 125 104 197 175 114 167 303 118 252 125 104r 204r 166 108 170 304 163 262 126 104 210 163 120 168 309 n.a. 271 201 207 384 272r 158 248 551 196 420 201 208 384 276 158 250 560 232 413 200 206 368 264 154 247 550 266 414 200 207 374 264 155 252 556 264 396 200 209 373 287 161 247 556 197 413 200 209 392 269 156 248 550 227 377 202 211 406 263 151 250 559 244 421 203 213 414 277 155 247 555 257 428 203 215 443 290 162 253 553 211 396 204 214 432 274 148 250 561 292 426 204 214 437 284 167 254 567 246 420 204 215 441 280 171 260 567 200 431 204 216 428 288 155 260 568 n.a. 445 134 118 205 158 131 169 291 120 257 134 119 205 164 130 170 289 148 256 134 117 199 157 124r 169 285 144 263 134 116 200 155 131r 173 292 152 254 133 116 203 166 138r 172 292 171 266 134 117 205 155 132 172 290 149 244 134 118 215 166 133 175 292 144 266 134 118 217 166 133 173 291 147 269 134 119 223 175 136 176 289 127 266 134 119 218 159 136 171 292 193 269 135 119 215 167 139 175 289 151 267 136 120 223r 165 133 183 296 184 279 136 120 229 168 128 180 300 n.a. 282 128 93 168 140 160 164 323 137 225 128 93 175 155 166 166 331 113 234 129 92 177 151 163 165 319 93 210 129 91 173 151 152 167 322 103 207 128 92 177 155 147 163 314 104 234 128 91 180 149 158 169 331 98 213 129 91 179 149 165 166 324 105 230 128 90 179 157 159 167 326 112 246 127 90 178 157 164 172 327 104 218 127 90 177 152 159 169 331 112 230 127 89 175 148 185 171 337 109 228 127 90 179r 144 177 174 335 130 224 127 90 181 147 186 173 331 n.a. 229 135 133 239 153r 99 199 433 162 258 134 131 240 164 102 209 460 136 254 137 130 244 149 95 204 442 86 238 136 129 237 146 100 205 446 99 234 137 130 241 154 108 207 442 116 256 136 132 244 157 95 208 449 90 236 137 134 243 153 85 210 455 99 243 136 135 256 165 91 208 451 99 256 137 136 259 169 112 207 446 100 246 137 136 260 156 116 205 458 102 258 138 136 263 160 119 208 460 92 256 138 137 265 155 105 213 464 174 260 138 138 266 165 110 215 477 n a. 282 125 124 218 156 100 169 314 143 247 124 123 217 157 94 170 328 86 236 124 123 215 147 85 170 315 96 248 124 123 216 154 95 176 319 99 243 124 123 216 151 98 176 310 99 255 124 123 222 147 100 175 311 101 233 125 124 224 141 91 174 315 96 258 126 125 230 152 84 175 312 101 255 126 125 227 157 90 179 313 100 256 126 124 234 146 89 176 320 109 254 126 125 231 157 102 179 323 93 248 126 125 228r 150 97 181 325 127 246 126 125 234 154 101 180 326 n.a. 263 Other totals for entire six states, n.a. Not Available. p Preliminary. r Revised. **Daily average basis. ***Revisions reflect new seasonal factors. Sources: Nonfarm and mfg. emp. and payrolls, state depts. of labor; cotton consumption, U.S. Bureau of Census, construction contracts, F. W. Dodge Corp.; petrol, prod., U.S. Bureau of Mines; elec. power prod., Fed. Power Conim. Other indexes based on data collected by this Bank. All indexes calculated by this Bank. • 7 • D I S T R I C T B U S I N E S S C O N D I T I O N S |1 9 4 7 -4 9 = 1 0 0 Seas. Adj. Nonfarm Employment T h e old y e a r ended on a note of optimism, as prelim inary seaso nally adjusted figures showed that both departm ent store sales and mem ber bank loans reached record highs in December. This is especially en Mfg. Payrolls Mfg. Employment Electric Power Production couraging, since the behavior of these two indicators had been disappointing throughout much of the recovery period that began early in 1961. However, optimism must be restrained by the slow and hesitant progress of the District employment and income figures. Improvement in these indicators has been weaker than that of earlier recovery periods and less than that of comparable national figures. )S v* Nonfarm em ploym ent held steady in Novem ber, after having in creased in each of the preceding seven months. Alabama and Georgia experienced slight gains, while employment was virtually unchanged in Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Manufacturing employment, however, rose slightly further, and the average work week lengthened, indicating a con tinued expansion in manufacturing activity. Reflecting these developments, manufacturing payrolls reached a new record in November. Construction employment held steady for the fourth consecutive month, but the three-month average of contracts for future construction, based partly on November data, declined. Cotton consumption, a measure of textile activity, weakened slightly in November. Personal income, which had shown little change from July through September, increased slightly in October, according to the latest available estimates. v* v* u* Construction Contracts 3~mo. m ovin g avg Cotton Consumption Consumer spending has shown considerable strength quite recently. Not only did department store sales reach record levels in December, but the revised November figures show greater strength than was previously indicated. Bank debits also rose sharply in November. Sales at furniture and household appliance stores, however, increased less than seasonally. Latest available figures for stores of all kinds with one to ten outlets held steady in October. Bank Debits u* V With farm m arketings sustained and prices rising slig htly, farm ers' cash receipts probably increased som ew hat in Novem ber and Decem ber although adverse w eather conditions prevailed. Weather conditions Dept. Store Stocks Dept. Store Sales Member Bank Loons in December slowed operations on District farms. Widespread rains stalled harvesting activities, and excessive wetness limited the grazing of livestock. Water from flooding rivers in South Central Mississippi damaged unharvested cotton and killed some livestock. In Florida, recent scattered frosts hurt tender truck crops and slowed vegetable marketings, but did little harm to the citrus crop. On the other hand, livestock product marketings, especially shipments of hogs and cattle, increased in most areas of production. The average of prices received by farmers increased slightly in December, principally because prices for broilers, hogs, and citrus rose. Member Bank Deposits P E R C E N T OF R E Q U IR E D Member bank loans, season ally adjusted, continued to advance during Novem ber, as gains w ere registered in all states except Louisi ana. Data for banks in leading cities suggest there were further loan increases RESERVES Borrowings from / F R Bank Excess A . Reserves t rt'^'H1rr 1961 in December. Total member bank deposits, seasonally adjusted, declined after rising sharply during September and October. The decline mirrored sub stantial decreases in Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana, where previous gains were especially sharp. Total investments at District member banks also de clined slightly. Credit demands, however, have not yet caused sustained tightening of member bank reserve positions, as indicated by the behavior of excess reserves and borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
@FedFRASER