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Fifty Years Ago December 23, 1963, marks the fiftieth anniversary of the signing of the Federal Reserve Act by President Woodrow Wilson. With the signing of this Act, the immense job of organizing a system of regional Reserve Banks began. It was during the course of this organization process that the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta was established. President Wilson’s signature culminated over five years of investiga tion into the causes and possible cures of recurrent economic depres sions. A great part of the nation’s financial ills was attributable to a monetary system that produced alternating shortages and surpluses of bank reserves and, hence, of money. Regulating the monetary system, however, seemed to call for centralized control of monetary institutions, and the monetary institutions—nam elf the banks— were an integral part of our private, free enterprise system. A dilemma was thus cast, and a sequence of studies, debates, and hearings ensued. On January 15, 1913, House Bill 7837 was introduced “to provide for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, for furnishing an elastic currency, affording means of rediscounting commercial paper, and to establish a more effec tive supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes.” Among the witnesses at the Congressional hearings were many prom inent persons from those states that were soon to become parts of the Sixth Federal Reserve District. These included T. H. Dickson of Jackson, Mississippi; Francis W. Foote of Hattiesburg, Mississippi; Robert F. Maddox of Atlanta, Georgia; McLane Tilton, Jr., of Pell City, Alabama; and Sol Wexler of New Orleans, Louisiana. During the hearings on the Federal Reserve Bill, many witnesses expressed a distinct concern that a central bank would enable the finan cial centers of the nation to control the entire national economy to the disadvantage of the other regions of the country. On the other hand, most bankers recognized the need for banks to have a source of credit. As a compromise, a sort of de-centralized central banking system was proposed, under which the Reserve Bank Organization Committee (made up of the Secretaries of Agriculture and the Treasury and the Comptroller of the Currency) would designate “not less than eight nor more than twelve Federal Reserve Cities.” Each Federal Reserve city would be the headquarters of a Federal Reserve District. A Federal Reserve Board, appointed by the President, would provide a measure of centralization by exercising certain supervisory powers over the Fed eral Reserve Banks. Although the regional bank plan still met with opposition, the Fed eral Reserve Act (HR 7837) passed the House on September 18, 1913, and the Senate on December 19, 1913. President Wilson signed the Act into law on December 23, 1913, and the United States was thus com mitted to a central banking system. The Reserve Bank Organization Committee then began its arduous task of dividing the nation into Federal Reserve Districts. Hearings were held around the nation, and on April 3, 1914, the Committee announced that Atlanta would be the Federal Reserve city for the Sixth Federal Reserve District. Some Measures of the Quality of Credit We are currently experiencing the longest period of credit ease of the postwar period. Has this extended policy of ease supplied funds to lenders beyond the legitimate needs of the economy? Have lenders, seeking to employ their available funds profitably, progressively relaxed their credit standards? If so, the quality of credit has deterio rated, it is argued, and there is trouble ahead. What are the grounds for this belief? Assessing the current quality of credit is similar to economic forecasting because the present soundness of credit depends upon whether or not repayment will be made in the future according to agreed conditions. Re payment, in turn, depends upon the future interrelation ships of a large number of variables, many of them not easily predictable. Lacking precise ways of predicting the behavior of these variables, persons judging the present quality of credit draw heavily upon past performances. When they find the current situation matching a set of circumstances in the past that led to trouble, they attempt to draw a parallel. Like economic forecasters, however, they can be led astray because a given set of interrelation ships seldom repeats itself exactly. Nor are we always sure that everyone is talking about the same thing when he speaks of the quality of credit. The speaker may be concerned about specific loans and specific borrowers and will find the quality of credit better or poorer depending upon the use made of the loans, the margin between loan and asset value, the interest rate applied, and so on. On the other hand, he may be talking in terms of the portfolios of banks and other financial institutions. Would their liquidity be threatened if the economy suffered a recession? Or, he may be thinking of how the distribution of credit may influence the use of the nation’s productive resources. Are loanable funds being channeled to non-productive uses, he may ask. Or, from another point of view, he may question whether or not economic expansion has been sacrificed by excessive caution in lending. preceded the crash was the farm real estate situation, which was characterized by a sharp rise in land values supported by credit. When farm product prices fell, farm values were dragged down, and delinquencies spurred farm loan foreclosures. In recent years, stable or rising prices and incomes, abetted by support prices for some products, have caused farmers to buy more land or to improve their farms. These activities have been supported by an expanded mortgage debt based on the rising values of farm land and by increased appraised values. Farm income is more stable now than in the 1920’s. Nevertheless, it is argued, the quality of farm real estate loans depends too much upon inflated land values to be completely free of suspicion. In the 1920’s, the rapid increase in the construction of apartment units was followed by a credit crisis and col lapse. How far does this parallel extend to today’s recent increase in apartment construction? In the first period, a rise in rents had peaked out in 1924, although resi dential construction continued to rise through 1926. In the present period, rents continue to rise. In the Twenties, a substantial amount of residential construction was specu lative building financed by various kinds of bond issues. The policy of tighter credit, begun in November 1927, affected the bond markets severely. Its effects upon real estate bonds were devastating. Financing practices, how ever, are very different now. Like the Past? Some persons who judge credit quality by drawing paral lels between present conditions and situations that pre ceded major financial crises in the past point to the be havior of the stock market. The crash of 1929 followed a rapid increase in stock prices that was supported by a high level of brokers’ loans financing stock purchases. When stock prices declined, lenders called their loans— a process that helped snowball the price decline and, in turn, helped launch the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Credit analysts now ask, “Shouldn’t we now be concerned with the current levels of stock prices and customers’ debit on stock purchases?” One might say that higher-margined accounts would, to some extent, act as a better cushion now to price declines. Nevertheless, the implication of these trends is that stock market prices have been boosted on the strength of borrowed funds. Another troublesome development in the 1920’s that Relaxation of Terms Those who are concerned about the quality of specific types of loans are often disturbed by the lengthening of repayment terms and the reduction of down payments for automobiles and houses bought on credit. Lengthening of repayment terms, other things being equal, increases the . 2 • risk, since it is generally harder to predict what will hap pen a long way ahead than what will happen in the near future. Thus, these analysts were disturbed by the rise in the summer of 1963 in the percentage of new-car loans made for periods over 30 months to 70 percent and by the increase since 1953 in the FHA average mortgage terms on new homes from 22 to 31 years. Some persons believe, however, that such liberalization merely reflects satisfactory experience in these types of lending. has declined since late 1961. In the sense that these changes have reduced the ability of the average bank to convert its assets into cash without risk of loss, there has been a deterioration in the quality of credit. The need for liquidity, however, may have declined as a result of the greater growth of time than of demand deposits. REPAYMENT TERMS NewCat Contracts Over 100%Dealer Cast ■ Perce#! 1 ~kf 1959 rYears H 1960 1961 1962 1963 - "j “ 'FHA AverageMortgageTerns 1 1959 1960 1962 DownPayment OnHewFHA Mortgages 'T V f 'i N , 1 | x J _1 ~ rrH 1953^ 1955 195? 1959 1961 1963 __ 1963 These credit analysts are also disturbed by the small amounts of cash the typical buyer uses in purchasing his automobile or home. An increasing percentage of new-car contracts that will extend over 30 months are being made for more than 100 percent of the dealer cost. Meanwhile, the average down payment on new FHA mortgages has declined from 17 percent in 1953 to just over 7 percent in 1963. A similar trend has characterized conventional loans. This relaxation of terms has been accompanied by ris ing defaults and delinquencies, as is demonstrated by the rise in FHA mortgage defaults. Delinquencies on bank instalment loans are still well below the 1961 high, how ever, and the rate of FHA mortgage defaults is still below that on which mortgage loan insurance rates are based. The rising trend in business failures is also being closely watched as a measure of credit quality since business failures generally result in losses to creditors. Although the long-run increase in the trend of the average dollar liability per failure can be partly explained by the general expansion of the economy, the increase during the last three years gives some concern. The failure rate, however, has not risen correspondingly. Those who look at credit quality chiefly from its effects upon financial institutions frequently use bank liquidity to measure the quality of bank credit. The decline in the ratio of short-term securities to deposits and the increase in the ratio of loans to deposits indicate that bank liquidity When the ratio of reserves to savings capital at savings and loan associations and the ratio of capital to deposits at commercial banks flatten out or decline, as seems to have been the case in recent months, the cushions of these institutions against losses are weakened. During financial crises, when a bank’s losses exceed its capital reserves, losses have historically been transmitted to depositors. Both the ratios of reserves to savings and of capital to deposits, however, have shown an upward trend over the past several years. Trouble Ahead? These measures, with the exception of the data on fore closures and delinquencies, are forecasts. They do not tell us that we have gotten into trouble; they only foretell the possibility of trouble ahead. Perhaps they are not reliable forecasters at all, but only time will answer this. Mean while, corrective legislation and practices designed to avoid past mistakes have been adopted; among these measures are margin requirements, agricultural stabilization pro grams, amortization of mortgages, limitations on bank lending practices, insurance of deposits and savings and loan shares, and government credit guarantees. These prac tices may perhaps help us avoid some of our past mis takes; but history also has demonstrated man’s ingenuity in finding new ways of getting into trouble. Would the quality of credit be better now than it is if the Federal Reserve System had been less liberal in sup plying reserves to the banking system during the current period of business expansion? In the last four years, loans and investments have been made that would not have been made had Federal Reserve policy been less liberal. But these same loans and investments made productive busi ness ventures possible that would not otherwise have been undertaken and raised consumer spending higher than it otherwise would have been. Consequently, some of the growth in the nation’s output may be traced to this “easy” Federal Reserve policy, and the continued economic ex pansion itself may be said to have helped preserve the quality of credit. But how much deterioration in the com monly accepted measures of credit quality can we accept as the price of economic growth without getting into trouble? Note: Sources for data used in the charts are listed on Page 6. •3 • Index fo r the Y ea r 1963 MONTH MONTH PAGE PAGE CO NSUM ER CREDIT AGRICULTURE Instalment Credit Expansion Slows A Prosperous Year for Many Farmers Arthur H. K a n tn e r ..................... Growth in Farm Assets Arthur H. Kantner.......................... The Common Market and Agriculture Arthur H. Kantner.......................... . Nov. 6 . Apr. 5 . May 1 Jack L. Cooper.......................................... Sept. 5 CO RPO RATE FIN AN CE District Trends in Corporate Financing Hiram J. Honea.......................................... Oct. 4 CREDIT Q U A LITY Some Measures of the Quality of Credit . BALANCE O F PAYM ENTS Balance of Payments: The Problem— Can Export Credits Help Solve It? 2 Jan.-Oct. 8 Nov. 12 Dec. 8 1 Gold, the Balance of Payments, and Monetary Policy ECO N O M IC C O N D IT IO N S , GEN ERA L Lawrence F. M an sfield ...........................June 1 BANK ANNOUNCEM ENTS Jan.-Oct. 6 Nov. 10 Dec. 6 BA N KIN G Bank Earnings Edge Up in Spite of Rising Costs, W. M. D a v is ................................Apr. Controlling Reserves— The Heart of Federal Reserve Policy, Harry Brandt . . . . Sept. 1 Nov. 8 . . 1 Meeting Seasonal Loan Demands— A Problem of Managing Bank Funds Charles T. Taylor.....................................Nov. 1 That Time of the Year— Seasonal Demands for Money and Bank Credit Charles T. T a y lo r .....................................July 1 1962: A Billion-Dollar Year for District Banks, Alfred P. J o h n s o n ..................... Feb. 4 BUSINESS CYCLES Postwar Business Cycles in the Sixth District Lawrence F. Mansfield and Jack L. Cooper Oct. That Time of the Year— Seasonal Demands for Money and Bank Credit Charles T. T aylor.....................................July 1 The Common Market and Agriculture Arthur H. Kantner.....................................May Balance of Payments: The Problem— Can Export Credits Help Solve It? Lawrence F. M a n sfield ...........................Jan. Gold, the Balance of Payments, and Monetary Policy Lawrence F. M ansfield...........................June New Dimensions in the Mortgage Market Hiram J. H o n e a ..................................... Aug. The Common Market and Agriculture Arthur H. Kantner..................................... May 1 1 1 1 ECO N OM IC C O N D IT IO N S, SIXTH DISTRICT STATES Florida Joins the Club Lawrence F. M ansfield.......................... Mar. Good Growth Marks Georgia’s Economy in ’62, Hiram J. H o n e a ...........................May Growing Employment Accompanies Rising Economic Activity— A Review of* Alabama’s Economy, Alfred P. Johnson . Apr. Mississippi’s Economy Still on the Move W. M. D a v i s .......................................... Aug. Tennessee’s Business: Close Match to Nation Harry B r a n d t .......................................... Jan. 4 4 3 4 4 ECO N O M IC D EVELO PM EN T, SIX TH DISTRICT STATES 1 COM M ON MARKET Dec. DISTRICT BUSIN ESS CO N D IT IO N S Lawrence F. M a n sfield .......................... Jan. Growth in District Banking Facilities . . 1 A Prosperous Year for Many Farmers Arthur H. Kantner..................................... Nov. District Governmental Borrowing in a Favorable Climate, Hiram J. Honea . . June Growth in Farm Assets Arthur H. K a n tn e r ................................Apr. Income Growth: The South’s Response to Economic Recovery, Charles T. Taylor . Feb. •4 • 6 4 5 1 MONTH PAGE New Dimensions in the Mortgage Market Hiram J. H o n e a .....................................Aug. Postwar Business Cycles in the Sixth District, Lawrence F. Mansfield and Jack L. Cooper.......................................... Oct. Textiles— A Declining Industry? N. D. O’B a n n o n .....................................Nov. The Districts Economic Characteristics . . July 1 1 7 5 MONTH PAGE Monetary Stimulus: Hesitant or Aggressive?— A Review of Federal Reserve Policy in 1962 Harry B r a n d t.......................................... Mar. 1 That Time of the Year— Seasonal Demands for Money and Bank Credit Charles T. Taylor.....................................July 1 M O RTGAGE CREDIT FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM New Dimensions in the Mortgage Market Controlling Reserves— The Heart of Federal Reserve Policy Hiram J. H o n e a .....................................Aug. Harry B r a n d t.......................................... Sept. Fifty Years A g o ............................................ Dec. Monetary Stimulus: Hesitant or Aggressive?— A Review of Federal Reserve Policy in 1962 1 1 FINANCE District Governmental Borrowing in a Favorable Climate, Hiram J. Honea . District Trends in Corporate Financing . June 4 Hiram J. Honea.......................................... Oct. New Dimensions in the Mortgage Market Hiram J. H o n e a .....................................Aug. 4 1 FO REIG N TRADE Balance of Payments: The Problem— Can Export Credits Help Solve It? Lawrence F. M a n sfield .......................... Jan. 1 Gold, the Balance of Payments, and Monetary Poljcy Lawrence F. M ansfield.......................... June 1 The Common Market and Agriculture Arthur H. Kantner.....................................May 1 INCOM E Income Growth: The South’s Response to Economic Recovery Charles T. T aylor.....................................Feb. 1 SIXTH DISTRICT STATISTICS (Tables) Average Weekly Hours in Manufacturing................................Jan.-Oct. 7 Bank Debits Nov. 11 Construction Contracts Dec. 7 Cotton Consumption Department Store Sales Department Store Stocks Farm Cash Receipts Farm Employment Industrial Use of Electric Power Instalment Credit at Banks Insured Unemployment Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Payrolls Member Bank Deposits Member Bank Loans Nonfarm Employment Nonmanufacturing Employment Personal Income Petroleum Production Debits to Individual Demand Deposit A ccounts.......................................... Jan.-Aug. 6 Oct. 6 Nov. 10 Dec. 6 Department Store Sales and Inventories . . Jan. Apr.-May District Governmental Borrowing in a Favorable Climate, Hiram J. Honea . Controlling Reserves— The Heart of Federal Reserve Policy 1 6 6 STATE AND LO CA L FIN AN CE M ONETARY P O LIC Y Harry B ran d t.......................................... Sept. Gold, the Balance of Payments, and Monetary Policy Lawrence F. M ansfield...........................June O PERA TIN G RATIOS Bank Earnings Edge Up in Spite of Rising Costs, W. M. D a v is ................................Apr. Harry B ran d t.......................................... Mar. 1 Some Measures of the Quality of Credit . . Dec. 2 That Time of the Year— Seasonal Demands for Money and Bank Credit Charles T. T aylor.....................................July 1 1 June 4 1 TEXTILE INDUSTRY Textiles— A Declining Industry? 1 N. D. O’B a n n o n .....................................Nov. •5 • 7 Debits to Individual Demand Deposit Accounts Sources for d a ta used in the charts on Pag es 2 and 3: Stock Market: Stock Prices, Standard and Poor’s Index; other data, Board of Governors. Farm Real Estate Credit: U. S. Department of Agriculture. Apartment Building: Housing Starts, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U. S. Department of Commerce. Nonfarm Real Estate Foreclosures: U. S. Housing and Home Finance Agency. Repayment Terms: New Car Loans, Board of Governors; FHA Mort gage Terms, Federal Housing Administration. Credit Financing: New Car Contracts, Board of Governors; Down Payments on Mortgages, derived from Housing and Home Finance Agency data. Defaults and Delinquencies: Mortgage Defaults, Federal Housing Administration; Bank Instalment Loan Delinquencies, American Bankers Association. Business Failures: U. S. Department of Commerce. Bank Liquidity: Board of Governors. Loss Cushion: Savings and Loan Associations, U. S. Savings and Loan League; Commercial Banks, Board of Governors. All annual data for 1963 are preliminary estimates made by this Bank. B a n k A n n o u n c e m e n ts O n N o v e m b e r 1, the C itizens Bank, F olkston, G eorgia, and the C itizen s Bank o f F olkston, N ah un ta Branch, N ahunta, G eorgia, began to rem it at p a r fo r checks draw n on them when received fro m the F ederal R eserve Bank o f A tlan ta. Officers o f the banks include J. H . L ester, Jr., President; C. E. G lenn, Vice P resident and Cashier; and G . T. B rantley, Vice P resident and M anager o f the N ah un ta Branch. The D eL an d State Bank, D eL and, Florida, a new ly organ ized non m em ber bank, open ed fo r business on N o v em b e r 1 and began to rem it at par. O fficers are W endell Jarrard, Chairm an o f the Board; D on ald A . Page, P resident; H . W. M anning, E xecu tive Vice President; A . H . G aede, Vice President; and W endell Jarrard, Jr., Cashier. C apital is $300,000, and surplus and u n divided profits, $150,000. On N o v em b e r 1£, the Bank o f Belle G lade, B elle G lade, Florida, a new ly organ ized n on m em ber bank, open ed fo r busi ness and began to rem it at par. Officers include C. A . Thom as, Chairm an o f the Board; E. B. M cD an iel, Jr., P resident; and W. W . M ikell, Vice P residen t and Cashier. C apital is $300,000, an d surplus and un divided profits, $186,000. The First N ation al Bank o f Bonita Springs, B onita Springs, F lorida, a new ly organ ized m em b er bank, open ed fo r business on N o v em b e r 18 and began to rem it at par. O fficers are E lton G . C rockett, C hairm an o f the Board; A drien C. L am bert, Vice C hairm an; N orm an E. Swain, President; W. C. Benson, Vice P resident; and G . E v erett M cD on el, Cashier. C apital is $ 150,000, and surplus and u n divided profits, $132,500, as re p o rte d by the C o m p tro ller o f Currency at the tim e the charter was granted. On N o v e m b e r 20, the Sterling N ation al Bank o f D avie, D avie, Florida, a new ly organ ized m em ber bank, opened for business and began to rem it at par. Officers include D r. K u rt J. H einicke, C hairm an o f the Board; T hom as Ball, President; P aul F. Staup, E xecu tive V ice P residen t and Cashier; and Eugene J. A m aral, Vice P resident. C apital is $300,000, and surplus and un divided profits, $300,000, as reported by the C o m p tro lle r o f C urrency at the tim e the charter w as granted. The P arkw ay N ation al Bank o f Tallahassee, Tallahassee, F lorida, a new ly organ ized m em ber bank, open ed fo r business on N o v em b e r 26 and began to rem it at par. O fficers are John A . M adigan, Jr., C hairm an o f the Board; W endell Jarrard, P resident; Jesse W. P arker, V ice President; and A . T. F low ers, Vice P residen t and Cashier. C apital is $300,000, and surplus an d un divided profits, $150,000, as reported by the C o m p tro ller o f C urrency at the tim e the charter was granted. On N o v em b e r 29, The Sum iton Bank, Sum iton, A labam a, a n ew ly organ ized m em b er bank, open ed fo r business and began to rem it at par. O fficers include Julius S. Pilgreen, President; P aul Stone, E xecu tive Vice P residen t and Cashier; and H ow ard J. D odd, Vice President. C apital is $75,000, and surplus and u n divided profits, $50,000. In su re d C o m m ercia l B a n k s in th e S ix th D istrict (In Thousands of Dollars) Percent Change Year-to-date 10 months Oct. 1963 from 1963 Sept. Oct. from 1963 1962 1962 Oct. 1963 Sept. 1963 Oct. 1962 3,123,239 54,999 1,090,739 50,194 46,021 140,558 379,705 277,223 37,341 79,925 2,752,301 49,099 1,002,264 48,698 41,793 114,076 331,820 211,900 34,551 66,051 2,774,134 52,281 992,505 45,432 42,206 108,052 329,769 228,938 34,043 81,128 + 13 +12 +9 +3 + 10 + 23 + 14 +31 +8 + 21 + 13 +5 +10 + 10 +9 +30 +15 + 21 + 10 —1 + 12 +6 + 11 +8 + 12 +30 +11 +15r +9 +6 FLORIDA, Totalt . . Bartow* . . . . Bradenton* . . . Brevard County* . Clearwater* . . . Daytona Beach* Delray Beach* . . Ft. Lauderdale* Ft. MyersNorth Ft. Myers* Gainesville* . . . Jacksonville . . . Key West* . . . Lakeland* . . . Miami . . . . Greater Miami* Ocala* . . . . Orlando . . . . Pensacola . . . St. Augustine* . . St. Petersburg . . Sarasota* . . . Tallahassee* . . Tampa . . . . W. Palm-Palm Bch.* Winter Haven* . . 6,707,462 22,830 44,584 141,750 73,802 70,183 21,786 235,592 5,981,904 20,554 39,962 131,710 65,185 67,149 17,998 198,778 5,978,797 20,779 46,864 n.a. 71,230 61,352 n.a. 217,774 + 12 + 11 +12 +8 + 13 +5 +21 + 19 + 12 +10 —5 n.a. +4 + 14 n.a. +8 + 10 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. + 13 n.a. +4 54,799 5/ ,452 1,014,499 19,149 94,739 1,057,265 1,541,710 41,833 304,371 100,765 10,580 239,467 85,951 84,807 507,998 158,111 42,310 48,599 f 6,710 905,038 16,601 78,628 937,156 1,383,282 39,904 263,858 92,088 10,478 210,068 72,883 76,136 452,402 140,084 41,534 50,476 54,954 900,693 17,814 83,178 1,004,562 1,472,840 n.a. 287,053 91,455 n.a. 229,991 81,446 76,055 460,732 158,891 34,713 + 13 +1 +12 + 15 + 20 + 13 +11 +5 + 15 +9 + 1 + 4 +18 + 11 + 12 +13 +2 +9 +5 +13 +7 + 14 +5 +5 n.a. +6 + 10 n.a. +4 +6 + 12 + 10 —0 + 22 n.a. + 12 +5 +3 +6 +4 +5 n.a. + 10 +9 n.a. +0 + 11 + 10 +8 —1 n.a. GEORGIA, Totalt • Albany . . . . Athens* . . . . Atlanta . . . . Augusta . . . . Brunswick . . Columbus . . . . Dalton* . . . . Elbert on . . . . Gainesville* . . Griffin* . . . . LaGrange* . . 5,641,406 70,051 52,985 3,193,780 146,866 36,264 145,085 66,959 12,652 60,749 23,676 17,929 162,327 48,304 23,097 61,208 208,669 42,068 5,300,606r 66,512 46,122 3,019,426r 134,784 32,918 138,457 71,629 9,613 56,577 23,437 16,542 147,732 41,257 20,374 55,560 189,883 37,349 4,974,954 66,360 47,723 2,764,784 134,738 33,244 129,523 61,514 9,220 58,027 25,420 17,246 157,480 38,084 26,337 56,910 191,206 37,019 +6 +5 + 15 +6 4*9 +10 +5 —7 + 32 +7 +1 +8 +10 + 18 + 13 + 10 + 10 + 13 + 13 +6 + 11 + 16 +9 +9 + 12 +9 + 37 +5 —7 +4 +3 + 25 — 12 +8 +9 + 14 + 14 +6 +5 + 23 + 12 +6 +6 n.a. +6 +7 +4 —3 +8 + 19 —2 +6 +6 +3 LOUISIANA, T o ta lt** Abbeville* . . . Alexandria* . . . Baton Rouge . . Bunkie* . . . . Hammond* . . . Lafayette* . . . Lake Charles . . New Iberia* . . . New Orleans .. . Plaquemine* . . Thibodaux* . . . 3,108,333 10,807 100,283 343,987 5,887 26,620 84,971 88,338 29,924 1,669,932 7,240 16,807 2,772,594 9,110 84,587 327,3^6 5,287 22,590 72,557 84,066 26,734 1,466,760 6,831 20,947 2,857,182 n.a. 84,324 309 878 5,877 n.a. 74,894 89,893 n.a. 1,544,681 6,397 14,373 + 12 + 19 + 19 +5 + ii + 18 +17 + 5 + 12 +14 +6 — 20 +9 n.a. + 19 + 11 + 0 n.a. +13 —2 n.a. +8 +13 + 17 + 10 n.a. +8 + 11 n.a. n.a. + 12 +1 n.a. +6 n.a. n.a. M ISSISSIP P I, To talt** Biloxi-Gulfport* Hattiesburg . . . Jackson . . . . Laurel* . . . . Meridian . . . . Natchez* . . . . PascagoulaMoss Point* . . Vicksburg . . . Yazoo City* . . . 1,129,440 71,522 41,118 527,670 32,928 56,974 31,547 949,256 70,402 39,555 389,535 29,775 53,039 27,850 979,931 65,818 42,033 428,474 30,520 53,340 25,832 +19 +2 +4 + 35 +11 +7 + 13 + 15 +9 —2 + 23 +8 +7 + 22 +9 +12 —1 +9 +3 +9 +11 40,552 30,392 25,363 38,369 27,526 19,030 36,653 27,137 23,420 +6 + 10 +33 +11 + 12 +8 n.a. + 11 n.a. TEN N ESSEE, T o ta lt** Bristol* . . . . Chattanooga . . . Johnson City* . . Kingsport* . . . Knoxville . . . . Nashville . . . . 2,844,362 61,284 416,834 58,362 107,835 301,281 1,057,429 2,489,236 55,088 370,125 49,201 92,621 279,525 872,441 +4 +14 + 10 + 14 + 11 +6 +0 + 14 +11 + 13 + 19 +16 +8 +21 + 10 +5 +8 +10 +4 +7 +12 20,482,015r 20,054,234 12,448,546r 12,233,055 +10 + 10 + 12 + 12 + 11 +10 337,100,000 310,400,OOOr 307,400,000 +9 + 10 +10 ALABAMA, Totalt Anniston . . . . Birmingham . . Dothan . . . . Gadsden . . . . Huntsville* . . Mobile . . . . Montgomery . Selma* . . . . Tuscaloosa* . . Marietta* Newnan . Rome* . Savannah . Valdosta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SIXTH DISTRICT, Total 22,554,242 Total, 32 Cities 13,698,060 UNITED STATES 344 Cities . . . 2,725,354r 53,657 377,977 51,033 96,916 284,967 l,0 5 4 ,5 2 4 r *Not included in total for 32 cities that are part of the national debit series main tained by the Board of Governors. fPartly estimated. n.a. Not available. ♦♦Includes only banks in the Sixth District portion of the state. r Revised.. •6 • Sixth District Statistics Seasonally Adjusted (A ll d a t a a r e in d e x e s , 1 9 5 7 - 5 9 = Latest Month (1963) One Month Aga Two Months Ago 39,538r 128 137 154 116 125 124 157 136 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT 112 Ill 130 107 117 108 93 106 99 94 117 112 98 81 3.6 41.0 145 145 144 119 96 164 112 110 130 106 116 105 94 107 99 94 116r 112r 99 83 3.5 41.2 122 141 107 116 103 165 111 109 131 105 114 104 94 106 99 94 111 112 98 87 3.6r 40.9 122 140 106 118 99 166 109 108 127 104 108 102 93 106 95 95 111 110 98 ' 81 4.4r 40.9 108 117 99 113 96 157 161 155 158 154 154 150 141 138 135 128 144 135 125 148r 131 127 140r 127 119 128 FINANCE AND BANKING INCOME AND SPENDING 5,860 123 149 97 5,743r 122 144 102 5,754r 121 119 107 5,340r 117 122 98 FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank L o a n s .......................................Oct. Member Bank D e p o s i t s ................................. Oct. Bank D e b i t s * * ..................................................Oct. 107 103 109 94 82 4.2 40.5 159 134 141 107 101 109 95r 83 4.1 40.8r 157 134 143 106 102 109 94 74 3.9 41.0 154 131 137 105 101 107 92 75 5.1r 40.3 141 125 125 2,067r 163r 117 165 ll ,9 9 7 r 162 124 161 ll ,5 3 1 r 156 124 137 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT 7,971 137 135 115 7,951r 135 127 123 7,838r 129 135 124 7,294r 126 102 107 114 110 116 109 76 2.8 40.7 114 109 116 111 82 3 .Or 40.4 113 107 116 113 90 3.2r 40.2 110 106 112 112 75 3.3r 40.6 168 138 151 164 137 160r 158 133 155r 147 131 134 6,205 127 156 99 6,148r 128 119 111 6,129r 124 109 113 5,832r 117 153 95 103 101 103 93 84 3.6 41.6 103 99 103r 92 90 3.8r 42.9r 102 98 103 91 98 4.0 42.0 101 97 102 83 82 4.5 41.8 146 123 128 145 122 127 141 120 125 133 117 117 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employment.......................................Oct. M an u fa ctu rin g ............................................ Oct. Nonmanufacturing.......................................Oct. C o n stru ctio n ............................................ Oct. Farm Em ploym ent............................................ Oct. Insured Unemployment, (% of Cov. Em p .)**** Oct. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Oct. FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank L o a n s .......................................Oct. Member Bank D e p o s i t s ................................. Oct. Bank D e b i t s * * ..................................................Oct. LOUISIANA INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual R ate)***. Sept. Oct. Sept. Oct. PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Insured Unemployment, (% ofCov. Em p .)**** Oct. Oct. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . FINANCE AND BANKING Oct. Oct. Oct. Bank Debits*/* INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual R ate)***. Sept. Oct. Sept. Oct. 3,328 142 190 88 3,119r 141 137 102 3,124r 140 121 109 3,240r 128 221 89 . Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. 114 118 112 105 73 4.6 40.6 114 117 113 109 66 4.5r 40.8r 114 117 113 107 69 4.3r 40.7 112 114 111 107 79 4.7r 39.9 FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank L o a n s * ............................ Member Bank D e p o s its * ...................... Bank D e b i t s * / * * ................................. Oct. Oct. Oct. 181 150 158 177 147 154 175 142 151 165 141 138 6,722 135 139 105 6,685r 133r 106 114 6,664r 131 105 115 6,301r 127 138 112 112 111 125 83 3.9 41.7 111 112 110 122 % 4 Or 41.3 111 112 111 121 96 4.1 40.9 109 110 109 124 82 5.3 41.4 163 135 145 161 135 160r 157 132 140 142 126 127 Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual R a te )***. Sept. Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ................................. Oct. Farm Cash R e c e i p t s .......................................Sept. Department Store S a l e s * / * * ...................... Oct. 100 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT 119 127 118 89 109 2.9 41.0 119 124 118 91r 109 2.8r 41.7r 118 123 117 90 108 2.9r 41.2 116 121 115 92 114 3.8r 41.2 161 138 146 157 138 147 154 134 137 138 128 130 FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank L o a n s .......................................Oct. Member Bank D e p o s i t s ................................. Oct. Bank D e b i t s * * ..................................................Oct. INCOME AND SPENDING Pe-sonal Income, (Mil. $, Annual R a te )* ** . Sept. Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ................................. Oct. Farm Cash R e c e i p t s .......................................Sept. Department Store S a l e s * * ............................Oct. TENNESSEE FLORIDA INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual R a te)***. Sept. 12,222 Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ..................................Oct. 167 Farm Cash R e c e i p t s .......................................Sept. 142 Department Store S a l e s * * ............................Oct. 154 Nonfarm Employm ent.......................................Oct. M an u fa ctu rin g ............................................ Oct. Nonmanufacturing.......................................Oct. C o n stru ctio n ............................................ Oct. Farm Em ploym ent............................................ Oct. Insured Unemployment, (% of Cov. E m p .)**** Oct. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Oct. One Year Ago PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employm ent....................................... Oct. M a n u fa ctu rin g ............................................ Oct. Nonmanufacturing.......................................Oct. C o n stru ctio n ............................................ Oct. Farm Em ploym ent............................................ Oct. Insured Unemployment, (% of Cov. E m p .)**** Oct. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Oct. Two Months Ago MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual R a te)***. Sept. Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ................................. Oct. Farm Cash R e c e i p t s .......................................Sept. Department Store S a l e s * * ............................Oct. One Month Ago Latest Month (1963) GEORGIA INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual R a te )***. Sept.42,308 41,713r 41,506r Manufacturing P a y r o l l s ................................. Oct. 137 135r 132 Farm Cash R e c e i p t s .......................................Sept. 150 125 122 C r o p s ............................................................ Sept. 178 131 122 L iv e s t o c k ....................................................... Sept. 114 120 120 Department Store S a l e s * / * * ...................... Nov. 127p 120 130 Department Store S t o c k s * ............................Oct. 130p 125 124 Instalment Credit at Banks, *(M il. $) New Lo a ns....................................................... Oct. 157 151 150 R e p a y m en ts..................................................Oct. 150 159 154 Member Bank Loans* All B a n k s ....................................................... Oct. Leading C i t i e s ............................................ Nov. Member Bank Deposits* All B a n k s ....................................................... Oct. Leading C i t i e s ............................................ Nov. Bank D e b i t s * / * * ............................................ Oct. o t h e r w is e .) One Year Ago SIXTH DISTRICT Nonfarm Em ploym ent.......................................Oct. M a n u fa ctu rin g ............................................ Oct. A p p a re l....................................................... Oct. C h e m ic a ls..................................................Oct. Fabricated M e t a l s ................................. Oct. F o o d .............................................................Oct. Lbr., Wood Prod., Furn. & Fix. . . . Oct. P a p e r ....................................................... Oct. Primary M e t a l s .......................................Oct. T e x tile s....................................................... Oct. Transportation Equipment . . . . Oct. Nonmanufacturing.......................................Oct. C o nstru ctio n ............................................ Oct. Farm Em p loym ent............................................ Oct. Insured Unemployment, (% of Cov. Em p .)**** Oct. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Oct. Construction C o n t r a c t s * ................................. Sept. Residential ..................................................Sept. All O t h e r ....................................................... Sept. Industrial Use of Electric Power . . . . Sept. Cotton Consumption** ................................. Oct. Petrol. Prod, in Coastal La. and Miss.** . Oct. 1 0 0 , u n le s s in d ic a t e d Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Insured Unemployment, ( % of Cov. E m p .)**** Oct. Oct. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . FINANCE AND BANKING Bank Debits*/* Oct. Oct. Oct. ♦For Sixth District area only. Other totals for entire six states. **Daily average basis. p Preliminary. r Revised. • ♦♦Figures for personal income reflect revision of current monthly estimates to 1962 U. S. Dept, of Commerce benchmarks. * * * * F i 9ures reflect revision of seasonal adjustment factors. Sources: Personal income estimated by this Bank; nonfarm, mfg. and nonmfg. emp., mfg. payrolls and hours, and unemp., U. S. Dept, of Labor and cooperating state agencies; cotton consumption, U. S. Bureau of Census; construction contracts, F. W. Dodge Corp.; petrol, prod., U. S. Bureau of Mines; elec. power prod., Fed. Power Comm.; farm cash receipts and farm emp., U.S.D.A. Other indexes based on data collected by this Bank. All indexes calculated by this Bank. •7 • D I S T R I C T B U S ! N T S : - , C O N D I T I O N S O c a tte re d reports indicate that the basic economic situation in the District had not changed im m ediately after the tragic death of Presi dent Kennedy. Latest statistics covering the period prior to the assassi nation showed continued advances and, in some sectors, even a quickening of the pace of economic expansion. Consumers' incomes and retail sales had risen. The rise in outstanding consumer debt, halted tem porarily in the e a rly fa ll, had been resumed once again. The farm sector continued to exhibit strength, as farm ers' receipts rose further. Construction activity rem ained at a high level, and nonagri cultural em ploym ent persisted in its upward movement. Bank credit experienced a modest expansion. Record auto sales helped advance retail spending and consumer instalment credit in October. Department store sales weakened in October, as sales of apparel and other soft goods slackened, but showed signs of strength ening in early November. The expansion of consufner instalment credit reflected a boost in new loans, particularly those for automobiles and other consumer goods, together with a reduction in the level of repayments. Personal income, which advanced further during September, apparently climbed still higher in October. Final figures for September reveal that all states in the District registered gains in income. ]S v* Cash receipts from farm m arketings seem destined to reach a record total. In the January-September period, receipts from farm marketings ex ceeded year-earlier totals by a modest amount. Exceptionally large cotton harvests in Mississippi and Louisiana in October and November and current large harvests of corn, soybeans, and sugar cane should boost crop receipts sharply and push total receipts from farm marketings to a peak. With farm incomes high and rising still further, sales to farmers are being sustained. Nonagricultural em ploym ent exhibited a slight increase in October, with all District states except Mississippi and Florida contributing to the rise. The manufacturing sector scored a small gain that was sparked by increases in Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana. Food processing topped the list of manufacturing categories, as large food crop harvests flowed through process ing plants. Transportation equipment and chemicals also continued their upward climb. Nonmanufacturing employment remained virtually unchanged. Construction employment for the District was down only slightly, as sizable losses in Florida and Mississippi were partially offset by gains in Louisiana and Tennessee. Construction employment in Mississippi continued to decline, pri marily because of the completion of a large oil refinery. Regional construction activity, reflected by contract awards, remains at a high level. Residential construction, particularly outside major metropolitan areas, continues to out pace the nation’s in year-to-year gains. Manufacturing payrolls advanced some what, although the rate of increase was dampened by a decrease in average weekly hours worked. ^ J Member banks in leading cities report gains in reserves and deposits in November. Additional signs of buoyancy in District banking include a . P E R C E N T O F R E Q U IR E D R E S E R V E S . Eiorrowings fromF. R. Bank^ ' ' wH'for"Pi'FRASER '"T>Mi friQi— uQnj Digitized 1961 1962 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ ‘Seas. adj. figure; not an index. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis sizable upswing in both loans and investments. The expansion in bank loans was boosted by strong demand from the non-durable manufacturing and whole sale trade sectors. Banks added to their holdings of U. S. Government securi ties maturing within five years, but recorded no significant change in holdings of state and municipal obligations. Sales of securities by state and local govern ments increased in October. N o t e : D ata on w h ic h s e a s o n a l in flu e n ce s. s ta te m e n ts a re b a s e d h a v e b e e n a d ju st e d w h e n e v e r p o s s ib le to e lim in a t e
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