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A M li) Review ATLANTA, GEORGIA, DECEMBER, 1957 ln% isIssue: The New Look in U. S. Securities A Boom Year in Foreign Trade District Business Highlights Index for the Year 1957 (Supplement) S ix th D iS tr id S ta tis tic s : Condition of 27 Member Banks in Leading Cities Debits to Individual Demand Deposit Accounts Department Store Sales and Inventories Instalment Cash Loans Retail Furniture Store Operations Wholesale Sales and Inventories S ix th V ffir itf:In d e x e s : Construction Contracts Cotton Consumption Department Store Sales and Stocks Electric Power Production Furniture Store Sales and Stocks Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Payrolls Nonfarm Employment Petroleum Production Turnover of Demand Deposits DISTRICT BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS Consumer spending, although high, continues to slip from mid-summer peaks. Slower activity in some industries brought further slight declines in employment and payrolls, and cash receipts from farm marketings are lower than last year. Demand for bank credit is less strong than usual at this time of the year. Nonfarm employment declined slightly in October after allowance for the usual seasonal changes. The decline was concentrated in nonmanufacturing, since manu facturing employment rose slightly. Manufacturing payrolls/ seasonally adjusted, declined in October for the third consecutive month. With a reduction in the average work week came a reduction in weekly earnings. Insured unemployment changed little in October, although it usually declines at this time of year. Textile activity, measured by seasonally adjusted cotton consumption, dropped back to about the low rate of last spring. Crude oil production in Coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, seasonally adjusted, rose slightly in October, and held slightly above the pre-Suez crisis level. Steel mill operations were reduced sharply further in October and November. Construction contracts awarded in September continued substantially above a year earlier. Total spending, as measured by seasonally adjusted bank debits, declined during October for the third consecutive month. Department store sales in November, seasonally adjusted, rose slightly from the year’s low established in October. Department store stocks set a new all-time record high in October. New orders at department stores were still below a year ago. Furniture store sales, seasonally adjusted, continued to decline during October. New car registrations during October rose above year ago totals. Consumer credit at commercial banks declined during October for the first time since September 1956, as automobile loans outstanding declined. Automobile instalment terms on new car contracts were being written with much longer maturities this year than last year; 36-month paper is becoming more common. Cash receipts from farm marketings fell short of the total a year earlier by a large margin because the volume and quality of cash crops being marketed were much lower. Farm prices of rice, beef cattle, hogs, eggs, and milk exceed those a year ago. prices of cotton, cottonseed, peanuts, oranges, and chickens are lower. Total loans at all member banks decreased in October, after seasonal adjust ment, for the second consecutive month; and preliminary reports show a further decline in November. Loans to farmers outstanding at member banks were slightly less in October than a year ago because of lower farm production loans. Total deposits decreased substantially during October, after seasonal adjustment in all states except Florida. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta during November averaged higher than in any other month this year. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reduced its discount rate on loans to member banks from 3y2 percent to 3 percent, effective November 15, 1957. • 2 • I he N ew Look in U.S. Securities News commentators generally regarded last month’s half-point reduction in the discount rate as a forerunner of similar reductions in other interest rates. Their pre dictions, however, were not uniform as to which rates might be affected. Moreover, in the two weeks following the half-point reduction in the discount rate, very few interest rates declined that much. All this is to say that interest rates are affected by market forces as well as by monetary policy. In the last six years Federal Reserve policy, while far from being passive, has had less influence on particular interest rates than at any time since the late 1930’s. This is most evident in the market for Federal Government securities, where a “new look” has appeared. A Topsy-Turvy Market From early 1955 until the middle of November, the strangest phenomenon in the Government securities mar ket was the apparently upside-down structure of interest rates. Normally it would seem that people who were tying up their funds for long periods could command higher returns than if they placed their funds in short term securities. This, however, was not the case. During the first two weeks of November, 9-12 month taxable issues were yielding 3.65 percent, whereas the longest Treasury securities, maturing in 38 years, earned only 3.53 percent, at prevailing prices. Corporate Holdings of Government Securities United States, 1953-57 investors who had vague expectations of even lower long term rates. All these factors account for high short-term rates and lower long-term rates in the Government se curities market, a condition, incidentally, that does not prevail in markets for corporate and tax-exempt securities. What is the significance of this topsy-turvy market? Most obviously, it has complicated Treasury financing problems to the extent that it represents a belief that the general level of interest rates will decline in the future. Often, when interest rates decline substantially, the Treasury calls in some of its securities issued at higher interest rates and refunds then into lower interest rate issues. This saves money for the Government. Knowl edge that this might happen, however, often deters other investors from subscribing to callable issues, especially when they think interest rates might go down even more. Such a situation recently has caused Treasury officials to offer non-callable issues. Meanwhile, with a pinch on short-term funds, investors have hesitated to invest unless they could sell before maturity without loss. Thus, two recent intermediate-term issues have been redeemable two or more years prior to maturity at the holder’s option. Response of the Government securities market to re cent news events provides a good illustration of how de mand and supply expectations affect the course of Gov ernments. In general, interest rates declined this fall when news of slackening demand for bank loans raised pros pects that banks might seek alternative investment outlets such as Treasury issues. On the supply side, the launching of the Russian space satellites, as well as tensions in the East, has aroused ex pectations that increased Federal spending may once again be financed with increased Treasury borrowing. If this should happen, a greater supply of securities would be available to investors. On some days this fall, news items of this type set off a rise in interest rates although rates generally declined as credit demands weakened. N e w Customers and Old C u s t o m e r s in New Roles This state of affairs resulted from three factors. First, since 1955, when credit restraint began, the demand for short-terms has weakened because commercial banks, which are important in that market, have been pinched for funds. On the other hand, more permanent investors with plenty of cash such as pension funds have tended to invest in long-term securities. Second, the ceiling on the national debt, together with the Treasury’s reluctance to seek large amounts of long-term funds, kept a scarcity value on the longest maturity bonds. Finally, although long-term rates were low compared with short-term, they were viewed favorably by the more or less permanent In addition to the influences on the course of Gov ernment securities just discussed, substantial changes in the role of various types of investors have also produced important effects in the market recently. With the high level of business activity resulting in heavy flows of cash, treasurers of leading corporations have tended to put their temporarily idle bank balances in short-term Govern ment securities. This demand for these securities by corporations arises principally because seasonal swings in their needs for money often do not coincide with swings in their income. Corporations usually pay taxes and dividends quarterly so that in March, June, September, and December heavy inroads are made on their purses. In the intervening months, they accumulate funds and • 3 • find it profitable to invest in securities maturing about the time the funds will be needed. Moreover, the Treasury is attempting to collect a greater portion of taxes on income in the same year in which the income is produced. This is being done gradual ly by pushing forward the percentage of taxes currently payable. Until 1960, when collections will become evenly distributed throughout the four quarters, the Government will be a borrower in the slim fall months, when cor porations are good customers for securities because their tax load is light. As more of the tax load is shifted to the fall months, the upsurges in security holdings in autumn will be less evident. Some changes in security holdings of business firms have arisen as a consequence of their plant and equip ment spending programs. While firms built up their Gov ernment security holdings during World War II, they drew them down to finance building projects from 1945 to 1948. After the Korean War, though, when more and more corporations issued their own securities to pay for plant expansion, short-term Governments became very useful to them as a medium of temporary invest ment where the funds could be held until needed to pay for new plant and equipment. Thus, there is often a sizable demand for short-term Treasuries on the payment days for large corporate offerings. State Governments Slow as Buyers State and local government authorities, heavy buyers of Treasury securities during most of the postwar period, seem to be slowing down in their purchases. State gov ernment pension and retirement funds have been per mitted to buy a wider range of securities recently, both to allow greater protection against inflation and in the case of tax-exempt issues, to provide a market for local government issues seemingly discriminated against in the tight credit markets. This means a smaller proportion of their funds are going into Treasury securities. In some cases also, increased retirement and pension claims have slowed the growth of resources available for investment. Against these developments, other public funds, such as school, road, and bridge building authorities, like cor porate firms, face the task of investing temporary proceeds of large security issues. Here again short-term Treasuries play a role, and these housekeeping activities of public authorities have a pronounced effect on day-to-day market developments. John Q . Still in Market The biggest single bloc of Government debt is held by John Q. Public—individuals and trust funds set up for the benefit of individuals. They own $68.6 million, or one-fourth of the total Federal debt outstanding. About two-thirds of the amount held by individuals is in nonmarketable United States savings bonds. Despite public attention to the volume of recent redemptions of Govern ment savings bonds, actual changes in total U. S. secur ities held by individuals, both marketable and non-marketable, have been very slight. Savings bonds holdings are now down about $1 billion, or 2 percent below the peak reached in early 1956. While this decline was going on, individuals and their trust funds were greatly expanding their holdings of marketable Treasury obligations so that total holdings of all types were actually rising. Banks Change Role Commercial banks own 21 percent of the total debt, considerably less than the 30 percent they owned in 1946. In the last few years, banks have found maturing Treas ury issues helpful in relieving tight reserve pressures, since an individual bank needing funds could allow holdings to mature for cash. This automatically supplied individual banks with reserves. Even though banks have reduced their holdings of Governments, they have become more important as underwriters of securities. Beginning in the summer of 1953, the Treasury is sued tax anticipation certificates acceptable, on maturity, as payment for income taxes. Tax bills now are also is sued on a similar basis. These obligations can be paid for through credit to the banks’ tax and loan accounts, which are ordinarily not drawn down immediately. Thus commercial banks find they can subscribe to the obliga tions and sell them on the market, obtaining funds for payment even before the Treasury draws upon its deposits. This arrangement has caused the banks to take an active role in underwriting the tax issues. In a changing world, factors influencing a financial market as important as that for Federal Government se curities can never remain the same year after year. This brief review of some of the market forces affecting interest rates in Government securities suggests that interest rates during 1958 may be importantly influenced by business trends and institutional changes as yet foreseen only dimly. Monetary and fiscal policy undoubtedly will also play a role, but policy will most certainly be influenced by what happens in the market olace. _ _ A T homas R. A t k in s o n Bank Announcements The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is pleased to welcome two newly organized banks to membership in the Federal Reserve System. The Florida Northside Bank of Jacksonville, Jack' sonville, Florida, opened for business November 18Officers are T. L. Howell, Jr., Chairman of the Board, Robert D. Morris, President; Herbert E. WilliornS> Vice President; George E. Elms, Vice President and Cashier. The bank began operations with capital stock of $300,000 and surplus of $75,000. On November 23, the First National Bank of R°8' ersville, Rogersville, Tennessee, opened for businessOfficers are J. Frank Testerman, Chairman of ^ Board of Directors; Tom H. Rogan, President; Charles B. Cowan, Vice President and Cashier. The bank has capital stock of $200,000 and surplus of $62,500. • 4 • Percentages of Exports Through District Ports, First 8 Mos., 1957. A Boom Year In Foreign Trade Goods are continually leaving our southeastern shores bound for all corners of the earth. Similarly, our docks are the scene of unloadings of various types of freight from many other countries. The volume of foreign trade, of course, is tied closely to economic factors and to changes in these factors. In one year, world conditions may make Southern-shipped American goods highly at tractive. In another year, the opposite may be true. Dur ing 1957, American goods were readily accepted in other parts of the world. The principal reasons for this ac ceptance were the vigorous growth of foreign economies, a number of which had more favorable dollar reserve posi tion as 1957 began, the Suez-induced shipments of petro leum products to Europe, and the special agricultural surplus sales programs of our Government. Progress in foreign trade turns upon more than ex ternal economic factors alone. Sizable investments in port and harbor facilities and constant promotional efforts by port officials are equally essential if a particular port hopes to hold or improve its share of the available commerce. American merchants typically choose to use those ports that provide convenient and economical routes to foreign lands. Port investment and promotion, however, is a story in itself and is not the direct concern of this article. Here, we shall review current developments in foreign trade and assess their impact upon the long-run growth of traffic through Southeastern ports. The facts developed are based upon the monthly re ports of the United States Bureau of the Census. Data for the Sixth District came from Census report Number EM 563, which shows exports by commodity and by country of destination for individual Customs Districts. Air cargo shipments through Miami and New Orleans are not in cluded in the figures cited. The year 1957 has been a momentous one in Amer ican foreign trade. Total traffic between the United States and the remainder of the world has boomed. Gains in exports were especially strong. American firms will ship to foreign merchants 12 percent more goods in dollar terms this year than last. This upsurge in exports fur nished the United States with its most favorable balance of trade since the world-wide rebuilding days of 1947. Apparently, people in other parts of the world found they could afford to buy (or were forced to buy in the case of oil products) more American goods than ever before. Economic forces causing trade in the nation to expand proved even more important in the Sixth District. The four Customs Districts in the Southeast, Florida, Georgia, Mobile, and New Orleans, accounted for about one-fourth of the national gain in exports. Measured in dollars, total trade through this District in the first eight months of 1957 jumped 33 percent over the previous year. Exports soared 45 percent ahead of 1956 volume. This marks the second consecutive year in which new records were established in export traffic. In all, over 2 billion dollars’ worth of goods will leave our shores this year, compared with 1.4 billion dollars’ worth last year. The better-thannational gains in the Southeast permitted this District to capture a larger share of American foreign trade than ever before. Exports here this year will probably account for over 11 percent of the national figure. Where are the Southeast’s best customers? The pictograph shows that goods move through this District to all parts of the world. The bulk of the shipments leaving our ports are destined for Western Europe. The countries taking most of these goods this year—England, West Germany, and Italy—were nations with healthy econ omies where pressures on dollar reserve positions eased. •5 * The boom in trade can be traced largely to the increased acceptance Southern-shipped merchandise received in Eu ropean markets. The takings of these countries rose 68 percent during the first eight months of this year. Latin American nations, led by Cuba and oil-blessed Venezuela, are also among the names most frequently appearing on bills of lading and other foreign trade documents pro cessed in our region. South American trade showed a strong gain, up 57 percent. Japan, the most rapidly grow ing Asian country, received the bulk of this District’s Far Eastern shipments. Despite the importance of improved economic con ditions in the countries taking a major share of District exports, the largest part of the gains made this year can be traced to two special occurrences: the Suez Crisis and the heavy exports of American surplus cotton. Petroleum and cotton shipments accounted for almost half of the gain in exports enjoyed by our District ports. Gains in oil shipments to Europe were most striking early in the year: During the winter months, January to March, oil shipments from Louisiana jumped 375 percent over the year previous. American cotton moved through District ports into world markets in over 200 percent greater vol ume this year than last. The action of the Commodity Credit Corporation permitting the export price of Amer ican cotton to fall to the world price made our Southern cotton highly attractive to buyers throughout the world, and stocks that had been allowed to run down were rebuilt. Individual Port Picture Economic factors at work during 1957 did not affect individual ports in our District to the same extent. As would be expected, those ports handling the most cotton and petroleum posted the most impressive gains. New Orleans More merchandise goes through this port than any other in the District. Almost two-thirds of District exports pass through this city. Between Jan uary and August this year more than one billion dollars’ worth of goods moved across the wharves along the Mis sissippi. Exports are running at a record pace, 49 per cent ahead of 1956 levels. Since world demand for cotton and oil jumped markedly, it is no wonder New Orleans is enjoying a banner year. The city handles more cotton for export than any other port in the United States. The New Orleans area is also a major shipper of American petroleum products. It is already clear that King Cotton has regained the throne as the leading export through the Crescent Citv. Earlier in the 1950’s, other goods, mostly machinery and vehicles had replaced cotton as the principal product leaving Louisiana. Three European nations, the United Kingdom, West Germany, and Italy, and one Asiatic country Japan, proved to be heavy purchasers of the staple fiber. Mobile This Port recorded the most striking percentage gam m exports. Traffic here climbed an impressive 68 percent over 1956 levels between January and August. Goods loaded on vessels in the Alabama city, including such diverse commodities as iron and steel products and naval stores, met a strong demand throughout the world. Cotton exports played a vital role in the port’s gains making up 28 percent of the total increase. Equally striking were the strong gains made in ship ments of all kinds to Asia from Mobile. Last year 20 per cent of Mobile’s shipments were destined for Asiatic coun tries. This year over 33 percent of the outgoing cargo was earmarked for the world’s largest continent. Steel scrap shipments to Japan were especially heavy. Of all countries, Japan was Mobile’s best customer. Savannah Figures for the Georgia Customs District repre sent primarily shipments through the port of Savannah. This city’s location on the Atlantic Ocean gives her some advantage over our Gulf Coast ports in handling goods destined for Europe from many points in the South. Shipments to Europe now account for 57 percent of Geor gia’s exports, compared with 44 percent last year. An even greater percentage gain was recorded in South Amer ican takings of Georgia-shipped merchandise. Machinery and vehicles continued as the single most important class of goods moving into world markets from Savannah. Cot ton exports, up 144 percent, and metal shipments, 66 per cent higher, rose substantially in volume during 1957. Florida Ports Jacksonville, Port Canaveral, Palm Beach, Port Everglades, Miami, and Tampa are among the deep water harbors from which Florida ships products around the world. Cargo shipped from Florida is highly special ized, and the markets served are much more localized than for other ports. During the first eight months of this year, three out of every four dollars’ worth of goods shipped from the state were destined for Central and South Ameri ca. Cuba and Venezuela together took 54 percent of the state’s exports. To other parts of the world, Floridians send citrus fruits, fertilizers, wood, and paper. Because cotton and oil are not important exports from Florida, ports here did not benefit from the special factors working to increase trade in other District ports. Still, traffic this year, up 35 percent, did surpass the national rate of increase as Western Hemisphere markets took more of the Sunshine State’s goods. Outlook Clouded We have noted that Sixth District ports were the chief beneficiaries of the specialized factors making for the 1957 boom in American ports. These forces are not likely to continue strong through 1958. For one thing, the 1957 export boom has pulled down the dollar reserves of for* eign nations. In many countries the leveling off in economic activity after the boom conditions of recent years has reduced demand for many United States products, especially, cotton, that were heavily restocked in 195657. The effect of these measures will be to reduce Ameri can exports and bring them more nearly in line with imports. In this District, port officials will be hard pressed next year to match their 1957 performances. Some lasting gains were made in the District this yearTrade relations with our Latin American neighbors have been strengthened, substantial investments have bee*1 made in new port facilities, and further diversification i® products shipped has been achieved. L e o n T. K e n d a ll • 6 • Sixth District Statistics Wholesale Sales and Inventories* No. of Firms . . 44 . . 9 Type of Wholesaler Grocery, confectionery, meats Drugs, chems., allied prods. . Tobacco ..................... Paper, allied products . . . Hardware..................... Plumbing & heating goods Machinery: equip. & supplies Industrial.................. . . 25 . . 13 Instalment Cash Loans Percent Change Sales Inventories October 1957 from October 1957 from Sept. Oct. No. of Sept. Oct. 1957 1956 Firms 1957 1956 +7 38 +3 +5 +5 +8 8 +8 +5 +33 +29 6 +10 +8 +16 24 +14 +5 +19 — 1 9 — 2 +5 +1 + 2 0 12 +5 +9 +15 Federal credit unions . State credit unions . . Industrial loan companies Small loan companies . Commercial banks . . (In Thousands of Dollars) Ite m ___________ Loans and investments . Loans— N e t .............. Loans— Gross . . . . Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans Loans to brokers and dealers in securities . Other loans for purchasing or carrying securities Real estate loans . . Loans to banks . . . Other loans . . . . Investments total . . . Bills, certificates, notes U. S. bonds . . . . Other securities . . . Reserve with F. R. Bank . Cash in vault.............. Balances, domestic banks Demand deposits adjusted Time deposits . . . . JJ. S. Gov't deposits . . Deposits of domestic banks Borrowings . . . . . ‘Over 100 percent. Nov. 21 1956 3,370,602 1,854,020 1,882,133 1,045,093 1,036,855 44,390 49,337 177,904 38,935 646,466 1,448,714 389,843 753,795 305,076 483,968 54,020 265,973 2,213,577 792,705 67,127 735,255 63,900 Percent Change Nov. 20,1957 from Oct. 23 Nov. 21 1957 1956 +1 +2 +2 +1 +6 +6 1,018,619 +1 +3 35,136 39,814 +26 +11 52,168 177,717 22,701 638,697 1,468,231 398,350 772,321 297,560 474,684 53,781 257,350 2,244,326 792,538 65,501 691,363 44,500 52,708 167,879 15,746 587,367 1,516,582 480,767 728,348 307,467 534,905 51,871 250,317 2,322,423 672,938 98,139 700,146 74,457 —5 +0 +72 +1 — 1 —2 — 2 +3 +2 +0 +3 — 1 +0 +2 +6 +44 — 6 +6 • +10 — 4 — 19 +3 — 1 — 10 +4 +6 — 5 +18 — 32 +5 — 14 Department Store Sales and Inventories* ___________________ Percent Change___________________ ___________ Sales Inventories Oct. 1957 from iq Months Oct. 31,1957, from Dt Sept. Oct. 1957 from Sept. 30, Oct. 31, !!!?“ _ _ ____________ 1957_______ 1956_______ 1956_______ 1957_______ 1956 AW * A. .............. + 8 Birmngham . . . +4 U **, , e .............. + 2 4 .Montgomery . . . + 10 FL0 R ID A .............. + 2 9 Jacksonville . . . + 37 Miami Area. . . . +26 Miami . . . . +37 .............. + 2 9 5“,ft'Jb9-TamPa Area + 2 0 St. Petersburg . . + 2 5 -1 +1 — 1 —8 +3 —4 +10 — 4 +1 +0 +2 +1 +1 +6 — 8 +6 — 1 +11 — 1 +6 +4 +9 GEwJiT8 • • • •..... +16 GEORGIA............ - 11 .. +1 4-0 i* 1® *8** . . . . — 1 Augusta.............. + 2 1 Columbus . . . . +8 .............. + 1 0 2 ? "^ * .............. + 8 , Savannah . . * 4.12 LOj” SIANA . . . ; £to"Rou9e . . . +15 +1 +3 __5 __5 —9 —8 -5 -3 — 14 — 4 _________ 3 +7 +15 +15 +17 4 ■ S B S r . : : : +i l +5 jKffi,-.::; • B H ^ S/tE • • • . +6 ±3 ±1 z! +10 +12 — 3 — 3 +6 +9 +6 +1 — 5 +11 +2 — 4 +7 +0 +8 +2 +7 +7 —4 +5 +8 +9 — i +18 JJ +4 =? +7 — 2 +2 + ii + ’7 SS5SS^*-),' +u +4 +1 +12 +7 Johnson City** . . Chattanooga . . . +6 —2 —0 +8 — 5 +8 +3 +1 te ll! • • • . +4 —9 —2 +3 —3 DISTRICT* * • • • +9 +3 +6 +24 + 15 ~ s l!*1C T .................. ...... ......................+ 1 ________ + 3 ________ + 8 ________ + 1 .«,R.tport.l,|9 store* account for over 90 percent of total District department store sales. to permit publication of figures for this city, a special sample has been j g w ucttd that is not confined exclusively to department stores. Figures for non"'W im ent stores, however, are not used in computing the District percent changes. 37 11 24 45 Percent Change October 1957 from September 1957 October 1956 — 5 +8 +2 +1 . . . • • +9 — 5 — 1 —0 —0 —5 Item Condition of 27 Member Banks in Leading Cities Oct. 23 1957 3,397,705 1,929,474 1,963,274 .. . . . . . . . . . . . Retail Furniture Store Operations — 2 —9 17 +6 +1 *Based on information submitted by wholesalers participating in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Report issued by the Bureau of the Census. Nov. 20 1957 3,417,041 1,968,327 2,002,125 No. of Lenders Lender Percent Change Volume Outstandings October 1957 from October 1957 from September October September October 1957 1956 1957 1956 +2 0 +1 0 +16 +1 —9 +3 1 +2 1 +1 +3 +3 +1 1 +14 +27 +1 +0 — 3 — 4 — 0 +9 Cash sales . . . Instalment and other credit sales . . Accounts receivable, end of the month . Collections during m o n th .............. Debits to Individual Demand Deposit Accounts (In Thousands of Dollars) ALABAMA Anniston . . . Birmingham . . Dothan . . . Gadsden . . . Mobile . . . Montgomery . . Selma* . . . Tuscaloosa* . . FLORIDA Daytona Beach* Fort Lauderdale* Gainesville* . . Jacksonville . . Key West* . . Lakeland* . . Percent Change Oct. 1957 from 1957 from Oct. Sept. Oct. 1956 1956 1957 1956 Oct. 1957 Sept. 1957 37,909 733,013 25,502 32,536 254,836 148,628 23,603 45,849 34,009 707,946 24,801 34,453 250,644 132,812 24,118 43,216 38,534 692,0% 24,957 33,477 258,695 145,616 24,611 44,958 +1 1 +4 +3 —6 +2 +12 —2 +6 — 2 +6 +2 — 3 — 2 +2 — 4 +2 49,185 180,500 33,2% 607,428 12,225 56,721 676,112 1,040,482 149,198 83,012 159,062 313,870 91,994 48,542 156,471 28,512 583,380 11,964 51,740 631,230 966,065 143,346 78,514 145,829 282,236 81,398 43,113 154,899 31,974 555,039 11,642 50,703 636,791 962,882 135,983 77,991 138,865 263,435 79,721 +1 +1 5 +1 7 +4 +2 +10 +7 +8 + }$ ++*4l +16 +9 +5 +12 +7 +1 1 +14 +15 +15 +20 +1 1 +18 +15 +12 +b +8 Greater Miami* +10 Orlando . . . Pensacola . . . +6 +6 + 9 +15 St. Petersburg . +1 1 + 1 9 Tampa . . . . +13 +15 West Palm Beach* GEORGIA 57,025 —5 — 6 56,391 53,819 Albany . . • 33,376 + 1 3 31,366 35,423 Athens* . . . — 4 1,726,492 1,599,561 +4 1,662,433 Atlanta . . . % ,841 85,632 86,408 + 1 — 11 Augusta . . . 17,811 21,553 21,766 + 1 +22 Brunswick . . 96,167 98,424 95,085 +4 +0 Columbus. . . 7,754 7,952 +6 8,462 +9 Elberton . . . 46,288 46,947 + 9 +10 50,958 Gainesville* . . 17,010 16,005 17,021 +6 +0 Griffin* . . . 19,093 + 2 1 + 2 0 18,939 22,865 LaGrange* . . —o 108,092 — 2 106,040 105,929 Macon . . . . 23,674 23,342 25,6% + 9 +10 Marietta* . . 15,623 15,555 +8 16,870 +8 Newnan . . . —8 45,573 39,780 41,876 +5 Rome* . . . . — 6 173,481 187,303 175,669 Savannah . . . +1 — 9 24,455 21,624 +3 22,176 Valdosta . . . LOUISIANA 63,990 + 1 1 + 1 3 65,349 72,624 Alexandria* . . 177,819 190,739 + 3 +10 1%,370 Baton Rouge . . 48,090 50,219 15 55,461 Lafayette* . . +12 + 76,517 83,676 + 4 +13 86,794 Lake Charles. . 1,262,484 + 1 4 1,157,667 +5 1,320,191 New Orleans. . M ISS ISS IP P I — 2 37,842 39,841 +3 38,9% Biloxi-Gulfport* 29,242 29,299 +7 +7 31,384 Hattiesburg . . — 212,554 +1 1 179,915 199,3% Jackson . . . 20,109 21,691 21,981 +1 Laurel* . . . 37,264 35,067 +8 37,816 Meridian . . . 19,432 19,601 + 1 3 + 1 2 21,900 Natchez* . . . 22,349 + 1 1 —9 18,168 20,235 Vicksburg . . . TENNESSEE 42,857 — 12 36,069 + 5 37,919 Bristol* . . . —4 280,785 — 0 271,184 270,717 Chattanooga . . 34,429 35,326 + 8 38,012 + 1 0 Johnson City* . 68,664 70,502 72,742 +3 +6 Kingsport* . . 210,2% + 5 + 3 215,557 205,556 Knoxville . . . 593,422 590,491 606,997 +3 +2 Nashville . . . SIXTH DISTRICT 8,229,884 8,007,726 +6 +3 8,458,519 32 Cities . . . UNITED STATES 204,168,000 189,297,000 193,140,000 +8 +6 344 Cities . . *Not included in Sixth District totals. +6 6 ++ ?i • 7 • —5 ++4£ +8 +12 +6 +2 +1 ++18Z +5 +8 +1 1 — 1 +14 +4 +3 + ?1 — +9 +1 0 — 0 +19 — 7 +8 +14 +12 +10 +9 +6 +9 — 1 +10 +3 +4 +7 +9 +4 +5 +9 +3 +7 +8 +7 Sixth District Indexes 1947-49 = 100 Nonfarm Employment Sept. 1957 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED District T o ta l................... 134 Alabama........................ 122 F lo rid a ........................ 180 Georgia........................ 130 Lo u isia n a ................... 130 Mississippi................... 125 Tennessee................... 120 UNADJUSTED District T o ta l................... 134 Alabama........................ 123 F lo rid a ........................ 171 Georgia........................ 131 L o u isia n a ................... 131 Mississippi................... 126 Tennessee ................... 120 Aug. 1957 135 123 179 130 131 123 119 133 123 169 130 131 124 120 Sept. 1956 132r 121 166r 130 127r 125 121r Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Payrolls Sept. 1957 Aug. 1957 Sept. 1957 119 109 179 118 113 180 100 124 116 132r 120 112 158r 131 128r 127 122r 170 122 120 120 100 Sept. 1956 120r HOr 164r 121 124 117 lOOr 124 120r 120 121r 113 168 113 155r 124 102r 126 121r 121 102 121 101 126 117 125 118 Department Store Sales and Stocks" 246p 260 222r 233p 208 211r Nashville........................... 145 159 141 147 15 1 ill New Orleans...................... 150 150 142r 153 144 145 . St. Ptrsbg-Tampa Area . 153 165 153r 153 144 153 , Tampa C i t y ...................... 126 137 128r 128 125 130r DISTRICT STOCKS* . . . 176 170 175r___________192 177 1% 1 T0 permit publication of figures for this city, a special sample^ has been constructed that is not confined exclusively to department stores. Figures for non-department stores however, are not used in computing the District index. ' •For Sixth District area only. Other totals for entire six states. ** Daily average basis. Sources: Nonfarm and mfg. emp. and payrolls, state depts. of labor; cotton consumption U. S. Bureau Census; construction contracts, F. W. Dodge Corp.; furn sales dent' store sales, turnover of dem. dep., FRB Atlanta; petrol, prod., U. S. Bureau of’Mines; elec. power prod., Fed. Power Comm. All indexes calculated by this Bank ' O Reserve Bank C ities • Branch Bank C itie s D istrict Boundaries Branch Territory Boundaries ★ B oard o f G overnors o f the Fe d e ra l Reserve System Sept. 1956 Oct. 1957 Sept. 1957 Furniture Store Sales*/* Oct. 1956 Oct. 1957 Sept. 1957 186 200r 193r 290r 198r 174 217r 190r 190r 176 254r 189 167r 206 186r 103p lllp 106 103p 131p 80 82 199 191 275 196 177 218 190 198r 193r 267r 1% 175r 219r 188r 191r 181 239r 193r 170r 103p 109p 108 lOOp 127p 91 79 118 106 D3r 85 83 197 186 293 192 174 212 n.a. n.a. 185 414 283 268 184 130 212 190r n.a. 266 304 210 252 148 161 110 105 100 111 107r 133r 85 82 112 Oct 1956 109 112 112 112 137 88 89 109 110 116 109 133 100 85r Other District Indexes Adjusted_________ ________Unadjusted Oct. Sept. Oct. Oct. Sept. Oct. _____________________________ 1957 1957____ 1956___________1957 1957 1956 DISTRICT SALES* . . . 147p 156 146r 153p 152 152r A tla n ta l........................... 138 160 137 148 168 147 Baton Rouge...................... 150 145 130 154 15 1 134 Birmingham...................... 129 131 128 129 140 128 Chattanooga...................... 132 139 129r 135 140 131r 119 114r 116 124 124r Ja c k s o n ........................... 107 Jacksonville...................... 120 133 125r 143 117 149 Knoxville............................ 135 152 148 139 150 153 ................................. 127 127 134 133 136 140 Miami A r e a ................... Aug. 1957 Construction Contracts ____Adjusted Oct. ________________________1957____ Construction c o n tr a c t s * ................... Residential...................................... Other................................................ Petrol, prod, in Coastal Louisiana and Mississippi** . 166 Cotton consumption** . . . . 86 Turnover of demand deposits* . 22.9 10 leading c itie s ........................ 23.6 Outside 10 leading cities . . . 17.9 S e p t. 1957 . . n.a. S ep t. Unadjusted Oct. 1957____1956 ’ 161 90 23.8 25.7 19.4 161 98 22.5 23.2 16.9 Aug. S ep t. 1957____1956 297 282 Elec. power prod., total** Mfg. emp. by type Apparel..................................I 65 J64 170r Chem icals............................. 133 133,. 133,. Fabricated metals................... 177 180 168r f?** • ..................................113 113 111 Lbr., wood prod., furn. & fix. . 81 80 85r Paper and allied prod. . . . 159 161 163r Primary m e t a ls ................... 104 107 lllr Textiles.................................. 89 89 92 Trans, equip.......................... 2 3 0 243 198r r Revised. p Preliminary. n.a. Not available] Oct. Sept. Oct 1956 1957__________________ 1957 n.a. 289 244 n.a. 252 247 n.a. 339 242 165 89 22.9 24.5 159 91 243 26.0 19 .4 160 101 223 241 17.7 S ep t. Aug. Sept 1957 n.a. 1 957 18^8 167 134 178 114 81 160 105 89 228 1956 308 284 166r 129r 177r 114 172r 13* 169r 113r 80 161 107 89 233 (SUPPLEMENT) Monthly Review ATLANTA, GEORGIA, DECEMBER, 1957 Index for the Year 1957 AGRICULTURAL CREDIT MONTH Bankers Finance Intermediate-Term Farm Investments, John T. Harris and Arthur H. K a n tn e r ........................... The Cost of Money for Farming, John T. H a r r i s ....................................... PAGE May 5 Apr. 4 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Dec. 5 10 6 6 4 4 bank lo a n s Apr. Bank Lending Reflects an Active Economy, Harry Brandt ...................................... Corporate Cash Through Securities Sales, Thomas R. Atkinson ........................... July Jan. BUSINESS CONDITIONS., GENERAL BANK ANNOUNCEMENTS Bank Financing and the Automobile Market, Leon T. K e n d a ll....................... Bank Lending Reflects an Active Economy, Harry Brandt ....................................... Bankers Finance Intermediate-Term Farm Investments, John T. Harris and Arthur H. K a n tn e r ............................... inancing Pleasure Boats, Leon T. K e n d a ll................................... I he Cost of Money for Farming, John T. H a r r i s ....................................... Earnings Rise at Member Banks, W. M. D a v is .......................................... PAGE BUSINESS BORROWING Aug. 5 AUTOMOBILE MARKET Bank Financing and the Automobile Market, Leon T. Kendall....................... MONTH BANK OPERATIONS Apr. 4 July 3 May 5 Aug. 3 Aug. 5 O, Promise Me, Earle L. Rauber ................................... Feb. 3 District Building Holding Up, Philip M. W e b ste r.................................. Oct. 5 CONSTRUCTION CONSUMER SPENDING Bank Financing and the Automobile Market, Leon T. K endall....................... Financing Pleasure Boats, Leon T. K e n d a ll................................... The Consumer Market, Leon T. K e n d a ll................................... Apr. 4 Aug. 3 Sept. 5 CORPORATION FINANCING Corporate Cash Through Securities Sales, Thomas R. A tk in s o n ....................... Jan. 3 Apr. 3 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION District Oil and a Troubled Waterway, Philip M. W ebster................................... MONTH PAGE ICONOMIC CONDITIONS/ SIXTH DISTRICT Bank Lending Reflects an Active Economy, H a rry B ra n d t ................................................ District Business Highlights The Sixth District Economy in 1956, C h a rle s T . T a y lo r T h o m as R . A t k in s o n .................................. J u ly A ll Issu es ...................................... 2 3 Sept 3 A pr. 6 June 3 MONEY The Turnover of Money, Feb . 5 H a rry B ra n d t ................................................. OPERATING RATIOS, MEMBER BANKS Seasonal Swings in Electric Power, P h ilip W e b s t e r ................................................ Dec, 3 ELICTRIC POWIR PRODUCTION 6 Ju ly FARM INCOMI Earnings Rise at Member Banks, W . M . D a v i s ...................................................... PAPER PRODUCTION Less Income for Farmers, A rth u r H . K a n t n e r ...................................... 6 N o v. FARM LOANS A rth u r H . K a n t n e r ...................................... M ay 5 Aug. 5 L e o n T . K e n d a ll ............................................ Corporate Cash Through Securities Sales, T h o m as R . A t k in s o n .................................. Jan. 3 The New Look in Government Securities, Monetary Policy and the Economy, 3 M ay FOOD PROCESSING T h o m as R . A t k in s o n .................................. SIXTH DISTRICT INDEXES (Tables) Meat Packing—an Industrial Challenge, A rth u r H . K a n t n e r ...................................... M ar. 3 SECURITIES MARKET FKDIRAL RESERVE POLICY ................................................ P h ilip M . W e b s t e r ....................................... People on the Move, The Cost of Money for Farming, Jo h n T . H a r r i s ................................................ From Pine to Pulp to Paper, POPULATION TRENDS Bankers Finance Intermediate-Term Farm Investments, Jo h n T . H a rris and H a rry B ra n d t MONTH PAGt The New Look in Government Securities, O c t. 3 FOREIGN TRADE D ec. 3 A ll Issues S C o n stru ctio n C o n tra cts C o tto n C on su m p tio n D ep artm ent Sto re S ale s and Sto cks A Boom in Foreign Trade, L e o n T . K e n d a ll ........................................... E lc c tr ic P o w er P ro d u ctio n 5 D e C< INCOMI Less Income for Farmers, N ov# 6 Changing Industry Adds to the Sixth District, P h ilip M . W e b s t e r ........................ From Pine to Pulp to Paper, M a r. 5 P h ilip M . W e b s t e r ...................................... j une 3 O ct. 3 A rth u r H . K a n t n e r ...................................... \ F u rn itu re Sto re S ale s and Sto ck s M an u factu rin g Em p lo ym en t j N onfarm Em p lo ym en t j P etroleum P ro d u ctio n j T u rn o v e r o f D em and D ep o sits INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, SIXTH DISTRICT SIXTH DISTRICT STATISTICS (Tables) Meat Packing—an Industrial Challenge, A rth u r H . K a n t n e r ...................................... C o n d itio n o f 2 7 M em ber B a n k s in L e a d in g C itie s D eb its to In d iv id u a l D em and D ep o sit A cco u n ts D epartm ent Sto re S a le s and In v en to ries Instalm ent C a sh L o a n s LUMBERING R e ta il F u rn itu re Sto re O p eratio n s Lumbering Activity Slow, P h ilip M . W e b s t e r ....................................... Aug. 6 Lumbering Activity Slow, P h ilip M . W e b s t e r ....................................... State and Local Government Finance, A ug. 6 MARKETING FARM PRODUCTS O c t. 3 MONETARY POLICY ................................................. N ov. 3 Softness in Cotton Textiles, P h ilip M . W e b s t e r ....................................... A p r. $ TRUST OPERATIONS Monetary Policy and the Economy, ................................................ H a rry B ra n d t TEXTILES Meat Packing—an Industrial Challenge A rth u r H . K a n t n e r ....................................... W h o lesale S a le s and In v en to ries STATE AND LOCAL FINANCING MANUFACTURING IMPLOYMKNT H a rry B ra n d t A ll Issues 7 M ay 3 Managing Other People's Money, W . M . D a v i s ...................................................... June 5
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