The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Monthly F E D E R A R E S E R V E C o n s id e r a tio n s i n l o w - g r a d e lan d and other p h y sic a l resou rces o f the S ixth D istrict states m ust be p u t to m ore p ro fita b le u ses if in com es are to be raised a p p re c ia b ly w ith in th e ex istin g pattern o f Southern agricu ltu re. Further ch an ges tow ard few er farm s, larger farm s, few er farm w orkers, and in creased m ech an ization w ill p o ssib ly b rin g ab ou t a p erm an en t in crease in the farm w orkers’ incom e. B ut th ese ch an ges seem lik e ly to b e r ela tiv ely slo w , and it is im p erative that lan d , lab or, and ca p ita l b e m ade to p ro v id e as m uch in com e as p o ssib le in the farm in g system s now b ein g fo llo w e d . T o that end co m m ercial forestry, or the gro w in g o f trees fo r cash profit, offers a p rom isin g op p ortu n ity. T he situ ation in w h ich Southern farm ers find th em selv es is p a rtly the resu lt o f a h ig h rate o f s o il d ep letio n . A m o n g the causes fo r th is s o il exh au stio n are the h ig h r a in fa ll, th e co m p o sitio n o f th e so il, and the lo n g op en w in ters. A lso , the g en eral gro w in g o f cotton and other in tertille d crop s lea v es the so il unprotected from h eavy w inter rain s. T h is h eavy drain has le ft less than 5 percen t o f the lan d area in the D istrict states su ita b le fo r con tin u ou s cu ltiv a tio n under farm in g system s that p rovid e o n ly fo r a m ain ten an ce o f its natural state o f fe r tility and good p h y sic a l co n d itio n . E ven w ith a m oderate a p p lica tio n o f the sp ec ia l p ractices req u ired to co n tro l erosion and correct d eficien cies in n atu ral fe r tility , less than 2 0 p ercent o f it is su ita b le fo r con tin u ou s cu ltiv a tio n . T h ese low -grad e lan d s im p o se a serio u s b urden u p o n the D istrict farm er in h is attem pts to ra ise p rod u cts that are grow n ex ten siv ely in other parts o f the country. A s lo n g as h e raises cotton, peanuts, or other crop s that y ie ld h ig h peracre in com es and that are p e c u lia r ly ad a p ta b le to lo c a l co n d ition s, th e Southern farm er d oes n ot fe e l th is burden k een ly . W hen h e sh ifts to crop s that can be raised e q u a lly w e ll in other parts o f the country, corn fo r ex a m p le, th e q u a lity o f h is s o il counts h e a v ily ag ain st h im . O ne altern ative freq u en tly su ggested is th at m ore in ten siv e en terp rises, such as the ra isin g o f p o u ltry and truck crops, b e added to the farm in g system s. S in ce th ey w o u ld require la rger am ounts o f cap ita l and lab or, th ey m igh t p ro v id e a p artial so lu tio n fo r the in d iv id u a l farm er. A s farm m ech an iza tion advances the im p roved lab or d istrib u tion over the y ear w ill u n doub ted ly m ake th ese en terp rises p ra ctica b le fo r m ore o f the farm ers. A s a w id esp read so lu tio n fo r the low in com e p rob lem , how ever, th is ap p roach is lim ited b y the p ro b a b le u n w illin g n ess o f consum ers to b u y th e p rod u cts o f th ese in ten sive enterprises at p rices p rofitab le to the grow er in m uch greater q u an tities than th ey now do. T he m ost direct attack, o f course, is the attem pt to im p rove so il q u a lity . In recent years th is ap p roach h as received m ore atten tion than an y other. W ith the w id esp read interest in so il T B A N K O F he P r o fita b le A T L A N T A N um ber 4 A tlan ta, G eorgia, A p r il 3 0 , 1 9 4 8 V o lu m e X X X III S o m e L R eview F a r m F o r e s tr y con servation and in the restoration o f so il fe r tility , an un p recedented am ount o f en ergy in so il-co n serv in g and soilb u ild in g p rogram s h a s b een exp en d ed . F urtherm ore, the tech n ica l in fo rm a tio n required to in crease s o il q u a lity is a v a ila b le. M easures to con trol ero sio n , to restore organ ic m atter, and to rep la ce n ecessary m in erals are w e ll know n and are ad a p ta b le to p ra ctica l a p p lica tio n . L arge p u b lic su b sid ies in the fo rm s o f tech n ica l a ssistan ce and direct cash p aym en ts h ave been m ade a v a ila b le to farm ers. In sp ite o f th ese su b sid ies, how ever, an y great im p rovem en t o f so il q u a lity rem ain s an ex p en siv e venture fo r D istrict farm ers. In on e stu d y the cost o f con vertin g a run-dow n farm to its m ost p rod u ctive state and p ro p erly p rotectin g it against e ro sio n is estim ated r o u g h ly , b ecau se o f w id e ly v a ry in g con d itio n s over the D istrict, at a lm o st $ 3 5 an acre over a 10-year p erio d . A t an y rate b u ild in g up s o il p ro d u ctiv ity w ill require c o m p a ra tiv ely la rg e ca p ita l in vestm en ts, in vestm en ts often greater than the v a lu e o f the u n im p roved lan d . T h e g ro w in g o f trees as an altern a tiv e u se fo r low -grade la n d s m ay b rin g m ore in co m e to m an y lan d ow ners than any other u se w o u ld . L and is u su a lly rated acco rd in g to the q u a lities, such as p lan t-n u trien t su p p ly and su sc e p tib ility to ero sio n , that affect its u sefu ln e ss in g ro w in g field crop s. In that sen se m uch D istrict lan d is lo w grade, but the so ils are w ell adapted to g ro w in g trees. A b u n dan t r a in fa ll an d a lo n g g ro w in g season co m p lete the requirem ents fo r a first-class fo rest area. U n til recen tly th e S ix th D istrict fo rest in d u stry w as b u ilt u p o n a tim ber crop that w as a lrea d y grow n. In cen tives to grow trees w ere alm o st e n tirely la ck in g as lo n g as virgintim ber stands co u ld b e b ou gh t at a very lo w cost. In the clea r in g o f lan d fo r fa rm in g , o f course, trees w ere an ob stacle that had to be rem oved. T here w as a ten d en cy to use the h igh est-grad e la n d s fo r crop s and p asture and to lea v e the others in w ood s. T h e g ro w in g o f tim ber, thus, cam e to be a resid u al u se fo r lan d . L ike that in other areas, the tim ber in d u stry in th e D istrict g en er a lly h as show n a fluctuating m ovem ent, w ith the peak p rod u ction fo llo w e d b y a lon g-tim e d eclin e. In the D istrict the p eak w as reached ab ou t 1925. T h e e a rliest d elib erate efforts to grow trees, in the sen se that cotton or corn is grow n, w ere m ade b y the larger w ood -u sin g com p an ies so that they m igh t h ave a p erp etu al su p p ly fo r their p lan ts. S u ch op era tion s, how ever, w ere n ot ty p ic a l o f the D istrict tim b er in d u s try. A s the v irg in tim ber w as exhausted the id ea o f grow in g trees as a crop spread ra p id ly , and now m ost o f th e larger ow ners o f com m ercial tim b erlan d practice su stain ed -yield forestry. D elib era te efforts to grow trees are n a tu ra lly m ost intense 34 M o n t h ly R e v ie w o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 1948 Percentages oi Land by Use Capabilities Total Land State A labam a.......... F lorida........... G e o rg ia ..___ Louisiana 1 /. M ississippi... T en n essee___ Num ber oi Acres (Thousands) Percent 32,869 34,727 37,451 8,893 30,348 26,854 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Suitable ior Continuous Cultivation W ith No Special Practices O ther W ith W ith Than M aintenance M oderate Intensive oi Fertility Special Special and Good Physi Practices Practices cal Condition 7.0 15.5 14.6 0.4 4.2 19.9 1.7 17.9 22.5 3.6 18.2 54.6 2.4 28.4 24.7 7.1 13.5 20.8 Total 37.1 24.5 42.1 76.4 55.5 41.4 Suitable ior Occasional Cultivation S uitable ior W oodland or Grazing 13.5 19.0 11.9 49.4 47.8 46.0 23.6 33.4 43.9 11. i 14.3 Suitable Only ior Wild Life 8.7 0.4 1 / Includes only lan d in farms w hen the p rosp ects fo r p rofits are greatest. S in ce th e b eg in n in g o f the d efen se p erio d p reced in g th e recen t w ar, a very active dem and fo r fo rest p ord u cts h a s p u sh ed th eir p rices to new h ig h lev els. T im b er ow ners, b oth la rg e and sm a ll, have fou n d th em selves in a se lle r s’ m arket w ith stea d ily in creasin g p rices fo r ev ery th in g the w o o d s p rod u ce. T rees fo rm erly con sid ered u n m erch an tab le su d d en ly b ecam e v a lu ab le. T he p rofitab le op era tio n o f th ou san ds o f acres o f cut over lan d , even w h en th ey con tain ed o n ly second-grow th tim ber far b elo w the u su al q u a lity standards, b ecam e p o s sib le. S m a ll tracts w ith a c o m p a ra tiv ely la rg e v o lu m e o f tim ber co u ld be operated on a com m ercial b a sis. A F lo rid a ow ner o f a 20-acre tract o f old -g ro w th p in e, fo r exa m p le, received m ore than $ 5 ,0 0 0 fo r saw lo g s in 1 9 4 7 . S in ce he cut o n ly m ature trees, h is stand w as le ft in e x c e lle n t p rod u c tive con d ition . B y h arvestin g th e tim ber h im se lf, he ob tain ed a return o f $ 2 4 4 an acre fo r h is tim b er and h is tim e. A lth o u g h scores o f su ccess sto ries sh ow that th e g ro w in g o f trees even on a sm a ll sca le is n ow h ig h ly p ro fita b le, m uch o f the lan d su ita b le fo r fo restry is id le and m ost o f the sm a ll ow n ers’ tim ber stands are p ro d u cin g very little in com e. S eem in g ly m any lan d ow n ers are n eg le c tin g to u se fo restry as a m eans o f o b ta in in g h ig h er in com es fro m th eir low -grad e lands. I f lan d ow n ers are to p ractice su sta in ed -y ield forestry or to ch oose fo restry as a u se fo r th eir lan d and lab or, trees as a crop m ust y ie ld profits to th eir la n d and la b o r as great as, or greater than, th e p rofits fro m other en terp rises. T h ere fo re, the lan d ow n er m ust b e aw are o f the returns that variou s en terp rises w o u ld b rin g fro m h is ow n lan d b efo re h e can determ in e the advantages that fo restry w o u ld h ave fo r him . Ownership H ow the gro w in g o f trees com p ares w ith other lan d u ses as a p rofitab le p ro p o sitio n m ay dep en d u p o n w ho ow n s the lan d . T he adm inistrator o f an u n d ivid ed fa m ily estate, fo r ex a m p le, m ay be interested o n ly in u sin g the lan d so that it w ill return profits u n til it is d ivid ed am on g the va rio u s h eirs, w hereas the y o u n g farm er w ho ow n s h is lan d m ay p refer u sin g it so that it w ill y ie ld the greatest p rofits over a p erio d o f m any years. O f a ll the com m ercial fo rest a creage in the S ix th D istrict states, ab ou t n in e tenths is p riv a tely ow ned. O n ly ab ou t a third o f th is p riv a tely ow n ed lan d is in farm s. T he tim b er land ow ners other than farm ers m ake up a diverse grou p . In the coastal reg io n tu rp en tin e op erators, lum ber com p an ies, and p u lp m ills h ave b lo ck ed ou t la rg e h o ld in g s. S u ch ow ners as p u lp m ill op erators, o f cou rse, can and do ig n o re the q u es tion o f w hether the lan d s used fo r the gro w in g o f th eir trees cou ld be put to a m ore p ro fita b le use. I f th eir m ain p u rp ose is to operate a p u lp m ill and the com b in ation o f fo restry and p u lp m ill op eration y ie ld s a sa tisfa cto ry profit, their u se o f the land to grow tim ber is ju stified . M ost o f th e n o n fa rm fo rest a crea g e b e lo n g s to person s w ho ow n less than 5 ,0 0 0 acres each . O ften th ey are residents o f tow n s near th eir fo rest p ro p erty and m ay be m erchants, d octors, retired farm ers, or oth er p erso n s w ho are h o ld in g the lan d as an in vestm en t. F or th ese ow n ers the grow in g o f trees y ie ld s returns o n ly in th e fo rm o f rent fo r th e lan d . T h ey do n ot get the la b o r returns that an ow ner-operator o ften o b ta in s fro m h is tim b er w ork , n or can th ey com b ine tim ber g ro w in g w ith a p ro ce ssin g o p era tio n as the p u lp m ill op erators do. Other ow n ers o f la rg e tim b erla n d acreages in c lu d e railroad co m p a n ies, banks, real-estate sp ecu la to rs, u n d iv id ed fa m ily estates, and in su ra n ce co m p a n ies. S in c e p rofit fro m forestry d ep en d s u p o n r e la tiv e ly sta b le o p era tio n s, m an y ow ners, p a rticu la rly th o se w h o se m ain in ten tio n is to s e ll their p ro p erty as so o n as p o ssib le , do n o t regard th e g ro w in g o f tim ber as a p ro fita b le b u sin ess. T h e a d m in istrators o f fa m ily estates w ho u se in vestm en ts in tim b erla n d s to p erp etu ate and in crease the w ea lth o f the estates are im p ortan t ex cep tion s. T here is som e ev id en ce that th e forest-la n d h o ld in g s in this ty p e o f estate a re in crea sin g as m ore p e o p le learn that the g ro w in g o f tim ber can be a p ro fita b le in vestm en t. Farm Land and Farm W oodland O w ned b y Farm O perators (In thousands oi Acres) Area A labam a___ G e o rg ia ..... L ouisiana.. . M ississippi. T e n n e sse e .. Six S ta te s .. Land in Farms W oodland in Farm s O w ned by O w ned by Farm O perators Farm O perators W oodland All Land in Farms Num ber Percent oi in Farm s Num ber Percent oi All W ood oi All Land oi Acres land in Farms Acres in. Farm s 62 5,434 73 19,068 11,751 7,576 4,205 72 78 13,084 10,142 5,802 61 7,112 66 23,676 14,358 10,722 2,108 66 10,040 6,646 73 2,880 19,617 5,350 77 68 6,957 13,381 3,867 77 17,789 12,307 69 5,053 28,076 103,274 66 38,980 72 68,585 O w ners o f the third o f D istrict fo r e st a crea g e that is w ithin fa rm s v ary in th eir d egree o f co n tro l over th e farm op era tio n s and in th eir in cen tiv es to p ra ctice fo restry . A lth ou gh recent in fo rm a tio n is m eager, so m e stu d ies in d ica te that farm ers, retired farm ers, fa rm ers’ w id o w s, b u sin essm en , and p r o fessio n a l p erso n s ow n ab ou t 3 0 p ercen t o f th e farm w ood lan d acrea g e that is in rented fa rm s. T h e rem a in in g 70 p er cent is ow n ed b y fa rm ers w h o o p era te th eir ow n farm s. In gen eral the g ro w in g o f trees is lik e ly to be m ore attractive to th em b ecau se th ey can o fte n in crea se th eir lab or incom e b y w ork in g in th eir ow n w o o d s. From a p rofit sta n d p o in t th e r ela tiv e attractiveness that the g ro w in g o f trees h a s fo r a farm er m a y a lso d ep en d on the am ount o f la n d that h e h a s a v a ila b le fo r that p u rp ose. A b ou t 8 5 percen t o f th e D istrict’s farm s, as th ey are defined in the census, are less than 1 4 0 acres in size. T h ey con tain o n ly 2 8 percen t o f the fa rm w o o d la n d s, a v era g in g ab ou t 11 acres o f w o o d la n d each . M an y o f th e w o o d la n d s o n them do not even M o n t h ly o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 1948 R e v ie w furnish all the forest products needed for home use. The op erators of these small farm s in order to m aintain even their present low incomes must concentrate on growing the crops that have high labor requirem ents per acre, such as cotton. In com parison with forestry the intensive crops may yield low returns per hour, but, since they furnish many more hours of employment, they will yield the highest total in come. Farm W oodland in Sixth District States, by Size ol Farm Farm-Size G roup (Acres) Less than 1 0 ..... 10- 69............... 70 - 139..,........... 140 - 259............... 260 - 499............... 500 - 999............... 1,000 - 4,999 5,000 and m o re .. All G ro u p s......... Total W oodland (Thousands of Acres) Percent of All Farms 9.6 56.8 19.8 8.8 3.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 100.0 Average Woodland Acreage Per Farm Percent of Farm W oodland 0.3 5.3 33.2 79.5 162.5 321.9 855.3 7,032.2 34.3 0.0 8.9 19.2 20.5 14.9 11.1 14.5 10.9 100.0 28 3,452 7,467 7,981 5,816 4,334 5,655 4,247 38,980 On the farm s of 140 acres and more, about half the total acreage is in woodland. Forestry, as an alternative use for land and labor, has been practiced more generally on those farm s than it has on the very sm all farm s. The larger farm owners are under relatively less pressure to find profitable uses for their time. In addition, their farm ing operations are usually more mechanized, with the result that the time spent on each acre is com paratively little. They are usually able to practice such extensive land use as forestry or pasture to greater advantage than are the sm aller farm ers. Broad Comparisons A comparison of the gross returns from the land and the time devoted to forestry with those from competing uses of the land may suggest a way for D istrict farm ers to increase their income. From the standpoint of acreage as well as the am ount of work required cotton and corn are the principal intertilled crops. Together, they accounted in 1944 for about 60 percent of the D istrict crop acreage and about 42 percent of the total man-hours spent on all farm enterprises. All hay crops in that year took up about 20 percent of the cropland acreage and required about 2 percent of the total man-hours of work. The value of these three crops constitutes about 60 percent of the total value of crops in the District. Cotton is an example of a high-labor-requirem ent cash crop, corn of a high-labor-requirem ent feed crop, and hay of a low-laborrequirem ent feed crop. Estimated Gross Value oi Selected Crops, 1944 Corn Hay Area Per Acre Per Man-hour Per Acre Per Man-hour A labam a................... F lorida..................... G eo rg ia................... Louisiana................. M ississippi............... T en n essee............... Six S tates................. $24 16 18 20 24 31 23 $0.57 0.39 0.48 0.52 0.55 0.93 0.59 $14 ~9 10 20 25 24 18 £1.20 1.33 1.18 1.03 1.37 2.43 1.56 Cotton Per Per Acre Man-hour $0.62 $88 49 0.59 76 0.60 0.69 83 110 0.65 104 0.48 94 0.64 The gross value an acre, at 1944 prices and yields, was $94 for cotton, $23 for corn, and $18 for hay. For the time re quired in production the gross value an hour was 64 cents for cotton, 59 cents for corn, and $1.56 for hay. Since the growing of trees has not been so generally practiced as the growing of such other crops as cotton and corn, only rough estimates of the returns from farm tree crops are available. 35 One estimate, made for the Special Subcommittee on Cotton in the House of Representatives, places possible stumpage re turns between $2 and $4 an acre. The farm er could more than double these returns by doing all the harvesting and de livering himself. A more detailed estimate based on uncut second-growth saw-log-size stands places the average annual gross returns at about $6 an acre for a 20-year period. For the labor required to harvest and deliver the forest products, the farm er would receive about $1.50 an hour. The stumpage prices used in these estimates were $1.50 a cord for p u lp wood, $10 a thousand board feet for pine saw logs, and $6 a thousand board feet for hardwood saw logs. O rdinarily, aver age tim ber stands that have become run down because of fire and overcutting can be built up to the assumed income pro ducing levels in from 10 to 15 years of good management. Land varies, of course, in its ability to grow tim ber just as it does in its ability to grow cotton or other crops. Timber stands vary considerably over the D istrict in quantity as well as in quality. Returns on the farm -forestry experimental plot at Crossett, Arkansas, indicate, however, that an average gross return of $6 an acre may be conservative. This tract now contains about the same amount of growing stock as those on which the $6 estimate was based. During 1938-45 this area was cut annually under a management system that re sulted in the removal of a volume of tim ber approxim ately equivalent to the annual growth. The average stumpage value of the logs harvested was about $9.90 a thousand board fe e t; the pulpwood stumpage was valued at $1.15 a standard cord. These values are about the same as those on which the aver age gross return of $6 an acre from tim ber is based. The an nual gross returns from the Crossett experim ental plot on sawlogs and pulpwood, however, were about $11 an acre. Although the tract produced fuel wood and posts that had an annual delivered value of about $3.80 an acre, these products were excluded from the gross returns an acre be cause they do not always have a sale value. At the 1946 time requirements for harvesting and delivering the logs and pulpwood, gross labor returns were about $1.20 an hour. Direct comparisons between the gross returns from pasture and those from forestry are possible only to the extent that the feed produced in pastures can be valued. Since the feed must be eaten by livestock to bring in any returns, its value depends upon the degree to which it is utilized, the efficiency of the livestock enterprise, and the kind of livestock. Any estimate of returns from an acre of pasture, therefore, is applicable only under a given set of conditions. On the basis of 1944 prices, the numbers of various classes of livestock, and the livestock production rates on typical District farms, it is estimated that open pastures produced feed worth $4 an acre in that year. In this estimate all feed produced in pastures is imputed only to the 22 m illion acres of open pasture in the D istrict states. Undoubtedly, however, the 17 m illion acres of woodland pasture produced some feed that Estimates oi Costs per Acre and Net Returns p er Man-Hour and p er Acre on Cotton, 1944 Costs State Alabam a............... G eorgia................. Louisiana............. M ississippi........... T ennessee........... Labor Cash $ 43 38 46 57 53 $ 19 19 15 18 16 Land Rent $ 6 5 7 8 8 Total $ 68 62 68 83 77 Manhours 141 128 139 159 160 Net Returns Per Hour of Man Labor $0.45 0.41 0.44 0.53 0.50 Net Returns to Land $ 26 19 22 35 35 36 M o n t h ly R e v ie w o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 1948 livestock ate. T he gross return per acre o f op en p asture is overestim ated, therefore, to that extent. In 1 9 4 4 cotton gave net returns to la n d o f $ 1 9 an acre in G eorgia and $26 in A lab am a, w h ich tw o states p rod u ce abou t fou r fifth s o f the D istrict crop. T h ese figures, o f course, are the am ounts ab ove cash p rod u ction ex p en ses and lab or valu e. A verage h o u rly net returns fo r the lab or, w h ich are returns ab ove cash p rod u ction ex p en ses and lan d ren tal at the rates p r e v a ilin g in 1 9 4 4 , w ere ab ou t 41 cents fo r G eorgia and 4 5 cents fo r A lab am a. N et returns from fo restry in the S ix th D istrict th at are estim ated on average returns over a 2 0-year p erio d from th rifty tim ber stands and on stu m p age p rices ro u g h ly eq u iv alen t to th ose obtained in 1 9 4 4 am ou n t to ab ou t $ 2 .7 0 an acre. U nder the m an agem en t p la n s u su a lly advocated, h o w ever, som e o f the current grow th w o u ld be a llo w ed to a ccu m u late to b u ild up the tim ber stand, w h ich w o u ld m ake net returns som ew hat m ore than $ 2 .7 0 an acre at th e end o f the period . H o u rly returns fro m lab or, th ose ab ove the v a lu e o f stum page, th e cash costs incurred in h arvestin g, and a charge fo r the use o f equip m en t, are estim ated at 6 5 cents. A verage net returns fro m pastu re are estim ated at $ 4 an acre. A lth o u g h pasture lan d s in cu r som e costs, o n ly a sm a ll prop ortion o f th ose in the D istrict receive an y sp ec ia l treat m ent in v o lv in g cash costs. U n d er its p astu re-b u ild in g p ro gram the P rod u ction and M arketing A d m in istra tio n in 1 9 4 4 m ade paym ents fo r seed in g or reseed in g on less than 3 p er cent o f the op en pasture acreage. E stim ates m ade b y th e S o il C onservation S ervice o f co n servation n eed s on farm pasture lan d s in d icate that little m on ey is now sp en t on m ost pasture. L abor in puts are a lso r e la tiv e ly lo w . E ven if la b o r req u ire m ents fo r an acre o f pasture w ere as h ig h as the preharvest lab or requirem ents fo r h a y crop s, net returns per h our o f lab or fo r pasture w ou ld average a lm o st tw o d o lla rs. T h ese average-return figu res fro m v a rio u s en terp rises p ro vid e a b asis fo r estim ates that in d ica te the rela tiv e m agn itu d e o f the in com e ch an ges that w o u ld resu lt fro m sh ifts in the uses o f lan d and lab or. I f the D istr ict’s 3 9 m illio n acres o f farm w ood lan d w ere b u ilt up to the p r o d u ctiv ity le v e ls o f average uncut second-grow th saw -log-size tim b er stands, the h arvestin g and d eliv ery o f tim ber p rod u cts w o u ld require abou t a six th o f the to ta l la b o r now sp en t on cotton. If a ll farm w orkers w ere fu lly em p lo y ed at p resen t a sh ift o f one six th o f the tim e th ey now sp en d on cotton to p rod u ctive farm w oo d la n d s w ou ld in crease to ta l returns to lan d and lab or sig n ifica n tly . P rod u ctiv e w oo d la n d s, in other w ords, w o u ld p ro v id e job o p p o rtu n ities that w o u ld m ore than offset in va lu e the em p loym en t now p ro v id ed on o n e six th o f the co t ton lan d . S in ce an acre o f tim b erlan d fu rn ish es very little p ro d u c tive em p loym en t, h ow ever, o n ly a r e la tiv e ly sm a ll am ount o f land co u ld be sh ifted fro m cotton to tim ber w ith ou t g rea tly low erin g the total in com e to lan d and lab or. A lso , on a b asis o f these estim ated average returns and o f fu ll em p lo y m en t o f a ll farm labor, no la b o r co u ld be sh ifted fro m pastu re to tim ber w ith ou t lo w erin g it. A ll farm lab orers in the D istrict, how ever, are n ot fu lly em p lo y ed on farm s. In 1 9 4 5 ab ou t a fou rth o f them w orked an average o f 160 days off the farm s. T hat la b or is n ot fu lly em p lo y ed on D istrict farm s is o w in g in part to the u n eq u al la b o r d istrib u tion o f the h eavy-laborrequirem ent crops over the year. In G eorgia, fo r ex a m p le, abou t tw o thirds o f th e w ork on cotton is d on e in a four m onth p erio d . A s a verage returns in d ica te, the gro w in g o f trees offers greater returns p er acre fo r extra farm lab or than the u se o f lan d fo r p astu re d oes. T h e in d iv id u a l farm er, o f cou rse, is n o t con cerned w ith average returns. H is p ro b lem is to u se th e a v a ila b le lan d , equ ip m en t, and tim e in a m an n er that w ill y ie ld h im the la rg est returns a b ove cash costs. In d ecid in g w hether to sh ift lab or or lan d fro m cotton to tim b er, fo r ex a m p le, th e farm er w o u ld ch o o se betw een the actu a l returns fro m th e lea st p rofit a b le acre, or the lea st p ro fita b le h ou r, d evoted to cotton and the exp ected returns to the acre, or to th e lab or, that w as devoted to tim ber. But, ch o ices b etw een o p tio n a l uses o f land and lab or are n ot a lw a y s m ad e en tire ly fo r eco n o m ic reasons. Individual Cases In m an y in stan ces fa rm ers h a v e tu rn ed to tim ber grow in g becau se the fa rm in g system s th ey fo llo w e d b eca m e u n p rofit ab le. A farm er in the red c la y h ills o f N o rth G eorgia, fo r ex a m p le, o r ig in a lly received m o st o f h is in co m e from cotton. B ecau se o f d am age b y in sect p ests, d ep le tio n o f s o il fe rtility , and u n fa v o ra b le cotton p rices, h ow ever, h is returns fro m that crop becam e so lo w th ey no lo n g e r p ro v id ed h im w ith a liv in g . T h e farm con tain ed ab ou t a th ou san d acres o f th rifty sh o rtlea f-p in e and h ard w ood tim b er. B y h ir in g h is tenants to h arvest the tim b er and b y se le c tiv e ly cu ttin g th e w ood s the farm er h as rea lized returns o f fro m $ 5 ,0 0 0 to $ 8 ,0 0 0 a n n u a lly fro m the stand. S in ce o p p o rtu n ities fo r the farm er to in crea se h is in com e b y sp en d in g m ore tim e on su ch in ten siv e crop s as cotton are very lim ited on m ost sm a ll farm s, tim b er g ro w in g is o ften m ost attractive as a p ro fita b le u se fo r extra la b or. A N orth C arolin a farm er w ho h ad co n sid era b le id le tim e d u rin g the w inter d ecid ed that h e w o u ld m ake an im p rovem en t cu ttin g in h is tim b er if , b y d o in g so , h e c o u ld earn $ 2 a d a y fo r h is lab or. F or h is first cu ttin g h e se lected an acre o f dense secon d -grow th sh o r tle a f p in e ab ou t 2 8 y ears o ld . T h is stand had reseeded o n a field w h ich h ad o n ce b een u sed fo r row crop s. T h e trees harvested w ere o n ly th o se th at n eeded to be rem oved to im p rov e th e stand. T h ey w ere w orked into fu e l w ood and so ld in tow n fo r $ 7 .5 0 a cord . F or b oth h is lab or an d the trees th e farm er receiv ed $ 5 2 an a cre; fo r h is lab or a lo n e h e received g ro ss returns o f a b ou t 6 0 cen ts an hour. O ften farm ers are u n aw are o f th e o p p o rtu n ities to u se their tim e a d v a n ta g eo u sly in h a rv estin g th eir tim b er. T o an offer o f assista n ce in m ark in g and s e llin g tim b er m a d e b y a farm forester, a T en n essee farm er r e p lie d th at h e w as too busy to sp en d an y tim e on h is 2 0 0 -a cre w o o d la n d . D u r in g the w inter, h ow ever, th e fa rm fo rester w as a b le to c o n v in ce the farm er h e had e n o u g h tim e d u rin g th e sla c k sea so n o f farm w ork to harvest an d s e ll h is ow n lo g s . A s a resu lt th e farm er so ld 2 0 ,0 0 0 b oard fe e t o f g o o d -q u a lity lo g s to a fu rn itu re p lan t in a near-by tow n . F or h is tim e an d th e u se o f h is farm truck in cu ttin g an d d e liv e r in g th e lo g s h e received returns, in ex cess o f stu m p age v a lu es, o f a b ou t $ 3 .5 0 an hour. T h e recom m en d ation s o f an oth er fa rm fo rester to a N orth C arolin a lan d ow n er illu str a te th e ty p e o f c h o ice that often m ust b e m ade b etw een tim b er and p astu re as a u se fo r par ticu la r lan d . S in c e th e p resen t ow n er, w h o recen tly b ou gh t the farm m a in ly as a p la c e to liv e , w ork s in tow n , h e is not p a rtic u la r ly in terested in th e la n d as a so u rce o f em p loym en t. O f th e 1 2 0 acres h e h ad in w o o d la n d , 5 0 , th o u gh in poor M o n t h ly R e v ie w o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 1948 con d ition , con tained en ou gh y o u n g trees to b u ild up to a go o d stand w ith proper care. T h e rem ainder w as so b a d ly d epleted that it had no p rosp ects o f b ecom in g a m erchantable tim ber stand th rough reprod u ction . H ere the ch o ice w as not betw een average w ood lan d and average pastu re land, and the p rob lem w as to u se the lan d in a m anner that w o u ld y ie ld the h ig h est net returns o n ly to lan d . T he forester recom m ended that the n onrestock in g areas su ita b le in situ a tio n and water su p p ly be converted to pasture and that the restock in g p ortion be retained in w ood s. H ow forestry can be fitted in w ith other farm en terprises is sh ow n by the exp erience o f a farm er in S ou th M ississip p i. T h is farm er and h is son w ith som e h ired lab or op erate a farm con ta in in g 4 0 0 acres o f tim b erlan d . T h eir o p eration is u n usual in that the farm er k eep s d eta iled records o f in com e, exp en ses, and hired labor. S in ce h ired lab or on the farm is p a id by the hour, the farm er can determ ine returns per hour o f lab or or per acre o f lan d w ith co n sid era b le accuracy. R ecord k eep in g, o f course, is the first step tow ard an accurate e v a lu ation o f the advantages in o p tio n a l uses o f both land and lab or. T h is farm er, a retired c iv il en gin eer, b egan o p era tin g the fa rm w ith cotton and tim ber as the m ain p rod u cts. W hen h is records show ed that cotton w as co n trib u tin g little or n oth in g to h is net incom e, he aban d on ed cotton g ro w in g and started a d airy en terp rise. D a iry in g , o f course, requ ires r ela tiv ely large am ounts o f labor, and, under average co n d itio n s, b rin gs r ela tiv ely sm a ll net returns an hour. In the first few years very little tim e w as spen t on the tim b erlan d . A s the farm er learned m ore about the p o ssib le returns fro m se llin g and d e liv erin g h is tim ber products, h ow ever, h e b egan to g iv e m ore tim e to the tim ber and less to the en terp rises that re quired la rg e am ounts o f lab or. In 194 2 h e ab an d on ed the d airy op era tion altogeth er and b egan a b eef-ca ttle en terp rise, w h ich w o u ld leave h im m ore tim e to sp en d on h is tim ber. D u rin g 1941-47 h is total returns fro m the 4 0 0 acres o f tim ber am ounted to ap p ro x im a tely $ 1 6 ,0 0 0 . In 1947 a lo n e he received $ 2 ,5 0 0 fo r h is tim ber p roducts, w h ich consisted la rg ely o f saw lo g s, p o le s, and ties. H e o b tain ed the n ecessary extra lab or by h irin g n eig h b o rin g tenant farm ers at 60 cents an hour. T h e farm tractor and truck w ere used to load a ll the p roducts and h au l them to m arket. In n eg o tia tin g w ith tim ber-product buyers, the farm er c a r efu lly checked a ll m easurem ents to m ake sure that h e received fu ll v a lu e fo r h is products. T he ties w ere m ade on a custom b asis on w h ich the farm er fu rn ish ed the equ ip m en t, d id the h a u lin g and se llin g , and received paym en t at a rate o f h a lf the m arket v a lu e. On the p o le s and saw lo g s h is net returns, th ose ab ove the current stum page valu e, averaged m ore than $ 3 an hour fo r the tim e sp en t in harvestin g, h a u lin g , and s e llin g . T h is fa rm er’s returns per hour o f lab or are, o f course, greater than the average returns that co u ld be exp ected even at 1947 p rices. A lth o u g h m uch o f the lan d in farm s w o u ld con trib u te m ore to net in com e if it w ere in trees, som e o f it w o u ld h ave to be a rtific ia lly p lan ted to y ie ld any in com e from trees w ith in the next 2 0 years. A p la n tin g m ade b y a M ississip p i farm er in 1935 ex em p lifies the fin an cial returns from such p la n tin g s. B efore that year the lan d had been in cotton. In 194 7 the ow ner m ade an im provem en t cu ttin g in w h ich he obtained seven units o f p u lp w o o d to the acre. T he w ork w as d one by h is tenants on a custom b asis on w h ich he received h a lf the 3 7 m arket v a lu e o f the p u lp w o o d . H is n et returns w ere $35 an acre, or a p p ro x im a tely $3 an acre a n n u a lly . S in ce o n ly about a third o f the tim ber vo lu m e w as rem oved, another p u lp w ood cu ttin g can be m ade from the sam e tract after a five-year in terval. Need for Larger Forest Acreages A bout one acre in every 10 o f D istrict farm lan d p roduces no crops, pasture, or tim ber. S om e o f th is land, o f course, is used fo r roads, b u ild in g s, b arn lots, fe ed lo ts, and other valuep rod u cin g p u rp oses. From m ost o f it, how ever, the farm er d erives little or no in com e. A lth o u g h a rev isio n o f farm la y o u ts w o u ld m ake it p o ssib le fo r the farm ers to u se som e o f these id le acres fo r crop s, m ost o f them are su ita b le o n ly fo r grazin g or fo r tim ber. To convert them to pasture land w ou ld often in v o lv e a con sid erab le cash o u tla y fo r fen cin g, seed in g, and other item s. On m ost farm s reforestation by a rtificial rep la n tin g p ro b a b ly w o u ld y ie ld the h ig h est net returns in p rop ortion to per-acre costs o f im provem ent. Farm Land Not Used lor Crops, Pastures, or Timber (In Thousands ol Acres) Area Alabam a...................... G eorgia...................... L ouisiana..................... M ississippi................. T ennessee................... Six S tates................... All Farm Land 19,068 13,084 23,676 10,040 19,617 17,789 103,274 Farm Land Not Used W aste Land, Percent Cropland, Roads, ol All Total Idle or Ditches, Farm Land Failure Farm steads, etc. 10.4 1,976 785 1,191 6.7 873 399 474 11.2 2,644 699 1,945 10.4 1,041 522 519 9.4 1,851 1,001 850 11.8 1,016 2,105 1,089 10.5 4,422 10,490 6,068 T he farm er co u ld greatly reduce h is reforestation costs by taking advantage o f the variou s state and F ederal reforesta tion program s. S eed lin g s fo r reforestation can u su a lly be obtained at low cost from state tree nurseries. M oreover, m any farm ers are e lig ib le under the Federal farm program to receive benefit paym ents fo r p la n tin g trees. In som e areas o f the D istrict last year these paym ents w ere am p le to cover tree-p lan tin g costs at current prices. W here the farm er planted the trees h im self, o f course, h is cash ou tlay w as n e g lig ib le . On the id le acres the rate o f s o il erosion and water runoff is u su a lly very h ig h . S in ce trees m ake one o f the m ost efficient typ es o f land cover used to control runoff and ero sion , the reforestation o f these lan ds w ou ld y ie ld con sid er a b le in ta n g ib le benefit to the entire com m unity and state. N um erous studies o f the in tegration o f forestry w ith other farm enterprises in d icate that increases in the w ood lan d acre ages w ou ld increase net in com e on m any farm s. A study o f farm w ood lan d s in a L ou isian a parish show ed that the w o o d lands on one-m ule cotton farm s w ere not fu rn ish in g even en ou gh fu e l w ood fo r hom e use. T h ese w ood lan d s had been overcut, overgrazed, and freq u en tly burned. E ven w ith good m anagem ent they cou ld not fu rn ish the fu el-w ood req u ire m ents u n less p in e saw -tim ber w as cut. Sin ce it w ou ld have taken about a fou rth o f their cash incom e from crop lan d to p urchase a ll their fu e l w ood, these farm ers foun d it v irtu a lly im p o ssib le to use their w ood lan d s effectively. In another study o f the p la ce h eld by w ood lan d s in a dairy-farm organ ization, it w as fou n d that a devotin g o f m ore lan d to w oods cou ld in crease net farm in com e sig n ifica n tly . A t p resent the farm has 28 acres in w ood s and 12 acres in w oods pasture, or a total o f 4 0 acres in w ood lan d . T he pres- 38 M o n t h ly R e v ie w o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 194 8 ent in com e from w ood la n d is o n ly $51, or about 6 percent o f total fa rm -fa m ily earn in gs. U nder the p ro p o sed farm re organ ization the fa m ily earn in gs at the end o f a 15-year p eriod w ou ld be alm ost d ou b led . U nder that p lan , the w o o d la n d w o u ld be in creased to 56 acres and m ade to contribute about $ 2 5 5 to net farm in com e. To attain these results the farm er w o u ld h ave to reduce h is open-pastu re acreage, th ou gh there w o u ld be o n ly a slig h t reduction in the actual grazin g area sin ce the 16 acres that w ou ld be sh ifted to w ood lan d now p rod u ce very little feed fo r the cow s. T he im p rovem en t o f the rem ain in g p asture by rem ovin g brush, a p p ly in g m in erals, so w in g som e seed, and p racticin g better grazin g m anagem ent w o u ld m ore than offset the lo ss o f pasture acreage. M ost o f the ea rly returns from w ood lan d w ou ld com e from the use o f farm la b o r d uring slack p eriod s to cut fu e l w ood and saw lo g s. A lth o u g h a few acres w ou ld h ave to be p lan ted to trees, m ost o f the in crease in w ood lan d w ou ld com e from natural reforestation . Pasture Acreage in Farm s W oodland Area A labam a....................... F lorida......... ....... ......... G eo rg ia........................ L ouisiana..................... M ississippi................... T ennessee..................... Six S tates..................... All Pasture (Thousands of Acres) Number of Acres (In Thousands): 2,917 6,211 9,096 4,528 5,903 3,508 1,386 3,921 3,571 7,804 6,040 1,333 38,975 17,243 Pasture Percent 47 50 59 35 46 22 44 An increase in farm w ood lan d acreages w ou ld require other farm adjustm ents. D istrict farm ers use alm ost h a lf o f their w ood lan d acreages also fo r pasture. T he am ount o f livestock feed produced to the acre o f w ood lan d pasture is very sm all, but the total acreage is so large that w ood lan d pastures now contribute co n sid era b ly to livestock p rod u c tion. A s the tim ber stands becam e m ore dense or m ore h ea v ily stocked under fire protection and in ten sive forest m an age ment, they w ou ld becom e less and less v a lu a b le as range fo r cattle or other livestock . If the livestock industry is to be m aintained, and p a rticu la rly if it is to be increased, as is so freq u en tly advocated, the present pasture-feed p roduction m ust be increased. F ortunately, the techniques fo r in creasin g pasture carrying cap acity are a v a ila b le, and under the p ro gram s o f state experim ent stations and other agen cies m uch has alread y been accom p lish ed . T he F ebruary Monthly Review contained an article d ea lin g w ith the a p p lic a b ility and costs o f the recom m ended m ethods fo r im p rovin g grazing crops and the returns p o ssib le w ith them . The n ecessity fo r in creasing pasture y ie ld s is o n ly one o f the ob stacles to p rofitab le farm fo restry ; there are m any others that stand in the w ay o f in creasin g the p h y sica l p ro ductiveness o f farm w ood lan d s and en la rg in g farm w ood lan d acreages. T he com p arison s betw een forestry and other farm enterprises fo r large areas as w e ll as fo r in d iv id u a l farm s, how ever, show that the grow in g o f trees can under certain circum stances m ake an im portant contribution to the farm ers’ incom e. W hether a farm er overcom es the ob stacles inherent in this typ e o f en terprise and thus realizes increased incom e w ill depend on the degree to w h ich he p la n s an efficient use o f a ll h is tim e and labor, uses the tech n ical and fin an cial assistance a v a ila b le to him , and m anages the w h o le farm in a b u sin esslik e m anner. B row n R . R a w l in g s S ix th D is tr ic t I n d e x e s DEPARTMENT STORE SALES* Place DISTRICT............. A tlanta............... Baton R ouge... Birmingham. . . . C h attan o o g a.. Jacksonville.... Knoxville......... M iami........... M ontgom ery.. . N ashville......... New O rleans.. Tam pa............... Mar. 1948 Adjusted** Feb. 1948 Mar. 1947 Mar. 1948 U nadjusted Feb. 1948 Mar. 1947 369 398 417 381 355 352 431 327 328 374 374 454 368 499 359 377 365 366 337 342 412 315 305 366 352 381 307 496 346 375 356 331 358 322 394 315 329 341 357 412 317 458 387 428 433 391 357 346 436 333 320 434 362 455 352 507 316 355 329 315 283 294 362 283 244 431 303 335 270 441 346 392 362 332 351 311 392 314 317 396 338 407 301 459 DEPARTMENT STORE STOCKS Adjusted*^k Unadjusted Mar. Mar. Mar. Feb. Feb. 1948 1948 1947 1948 1948 321 370 352 370 378 467 405 481 490 444 227 303 311 308 320 336 315 356 352 360 538 535 450 559 524 330 310 310 349 311 Place DISTRICT............. A tlanta........... Birm ingham . . . . M ontgom ery... N ashville......... New O rle a n s.. . Mar. 1947 321 413 233 334 468 327 GASOLINE TAX COLLECTIONS*** Place SIX STATES A labam a........... F lorida............. G eo rg ia............. Louisiana......... M ississippi....... T e n n e sse e .. . . . Mar. 1948 165 177 182 164 138 140 161 Adjusted*11Ir Feb. 1948 169 186 183 170 147 160 171 Mar. 1948 TOTAL............ 158 A labam a.. . 162 Georgia,. . . . 160 M ississippi. 110 Tennessee. 141 Feb. 1948 164 170 165 103 141 Mar. 1947 169 178 172 113 129 MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT*** Place SIX STATES. Alabama. . . F lorida....... G e o rg ia ... . Louisiana. . Mississippi. T ennessee. Feb. 1948 146 162 126 136 138 149 157 Jan. 1948 148 16 lr 128 137 141 162r 156 Feb. 1947 145 155 129 135 134 159 155 CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX Item Feb. 1948 173 214 197 Jan. 1948 174 219 193 Mar. 1948 153 163 191 150 127 126 142 Unadjusted Feb. 1948 169 177 197 162 144 154 164 Mar. 1947 153 161 179 144 142 144 140 ELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION* COTTON CONSUMPTION* Place Mar. 1947 165 169 170 158 154 160 160 Feb. 1947 159 193 177 All ITEMS... F o o d ........... C lo th in g ... Fuel, elec., and ic e .. 132 132 121 Home fur nishings . 172 187 187 Misc........... 140 148 147 P urchasing pow er of d o lla r.. .63 .57 .58 *Daily average basis **Adjusted for seasonal variation ***1939 monthly average=100; other indexes, 1935-39=100 SIX STATES.. Hydro generated Fuelgenerated Feb. 1948 338 Jan. 1948 328 Feb. 1947 313 291 247 326 400 433 297 CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS Feb. Jan. Feb. Place 1948 1948 1947 DISTRICT.... 349 339 232 R esidential. 501 436 270 O th e r......... 276 293 213 Alabama. . . 271 316 239 F lo rid a....... 501 390 318 G eorgia. . . . 285 322 231 L ouisiana. . 425 275 141 Mississippi. 169 164 443 T en n essee. 270 422 209 ANNUAL RATE OF TURNOVER OF DEMAND DEPOSITS Mar. Mar. Feb. 1948 1948 1947 U nadjusted. . 19.4r 19.1 18.7 A djusted**... 19.6 19.2r 19.1 Index**......... 78.Or 79.3 73.9 CRUDE PETROLEUM PRODUCTION IN COASTAL LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI* Mar. Mar. Feb. 1948 1948 1947 U nadjusted. . 282 279 244 282 A djusted**... 275 243 r Revised M o n t h ly R e v ie w o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 1948 D is tr ic t Trade T he expected after-E aster slu m p in sa les at departm ent stores occurred during the w eek ended A p r il 3, w hen sa les at the w eek ly reporting S ixth D istrict stores w ere dow n 14 percent from th ose o f the corresp on d in g w eek in 1 9 4 7 . D u rin g the fo llo w in g week, p artly as a resu lt o f the stim u lu s fro m sp e c ia l sa les and p rom otion s in som e o f the D istrict cities, total sa les fo r these stores w ere 15 percent ab ove th ose o f the corresp on d in g p eriod last year. S a les fo r the w eek ended A p ril 17 w ere up 12 percent. E ven after an adjustm ent for sea so n a l v a riation w h ich took into accou nt the early date o f Easter, the in d ex o f d a ily average sales fo r the D istrict’s departm ent stores o f 36 9 fo r M arch exceeded that for both M arch o f la st year and F eb ru ary o f this year. S a les o f rep ortin g fu rn itu re stores w ere a p p ro x im a tely the sam e th is M arch as th ey w ere la st M arch. D u rin g the sam e p eriod h o u seh o ld -a p p lia n ce-sto re sa les in creased 52 percent and jew elry-store sa les d eclin ed 3 percent. T he trend tow ard a greater use o f credit in retail se llin g continu ed in M arch. Credit sa les at departm ent stores for that m onth increased 2 4 p ercen t ab ove th ose fo r the corres p o n d in g m onth in 1947, th ose o f fu rn itu re stores 4 percent, those at h o u seh o ld -a p p lia n ce stores 2 7 percent, and th o se at jew elry stores 9 percent. T hese greater credit sa les, o f course, m ean in creased risks. E very m erchant w ho se lls on credit fa ces not o n ly the n eces sity o f w aitin g fo r paym en t but also the p o ssib ility that som e o f h is custom ers w ill never p ay. A s a gen eral ru le, th e p r o p ortion o f credit sa les that a m erchant m ust e v en tu a lly w rite off is sm a ll. S ixth D istrict m erchants are fin d in g that this general tendency is con tin u in g even th ou gh lo sse s on bad debts have increased at a greater rate than credit sa les have. A p relim in ary tab u lation o f data co llected b y th is bank in the retail-cred it survey fo r 1947 sh ow s that the com bined bad-debt losses o f 4 3 6 retailers in n in e d ifferent lin es o f b u sin ess w ere 42 percent greater last year than th ey w ere in 1946. A lth ou gh the 1947 ratios are com p a ra tiv ely lo w , th ey e x ceed the 1940 ratios reported b y the D ep artm en t o f C om m erce for m any lin es o f b u sin ess th rou gh ou t the U n ited States. T h e ratio o f lo sses on op en -cred it accounts in 1947 exceed ed the 1940 ratios o f the departm ent, h ou seh o ld -a p p liance, jew elry, m en’s-cloth in g, and w om en ’s-apparel stores. On the other hand, the ratios o f bad-debt lo sses to in stalm en t sa les w ere higher in 1947 in the S ix th D istrict fo r o n ly jew elry, m en’s-clothing, and w om en ’s-ap p arel stores. The 39 B u s in e s s ratios o f lo sses on op en -cred it sa les fo r a ll excep t three o f the d ifferent lin es o f b u sin ess w ere low er than the ratios o f lo sses on in stalm en t sa les. T h e in crease in bad-debt lo sses d u rin g 1 9 4 7 w as part o f the p rice p aid fo r m a in ta in in g a la rg e sa les vo lu m e through the use o f credit. Increased cred it b u y in g last year, accordin g to the survey, b rou gh t the sa les o f the 5 9 4 credit-granting stores that reported a co m p lete breakdow n o f sa les b y type o f tran saction to 461 m illio n d o lla rs, a sum that exceeded the 1 946 sa les figure 8 percent. The greater b u y in g o f consum er d u rab le good s last year is sh ow n b y the su b stan tial in creases in the sa les o f stores sp ec ia lizin g in that ty p e o f m erchandise. T he in creased a v a ila b ility o f such good s as w ash in g m a ch in es, elec trica l a p p lia n ces, and rad ios is reflected in the 94-percent in crease in the in ven tories at the rep orting h o u se h o ld -a p p lia n ce stores d u rin g 1 947. A lth o u g h au to m ob iles re m ained fo r the m ost part on an a llo tm en t basis, a u tom ob ile d ealers reported that their in ven tories increased 53 percent last year. Other stores rep ortin g su b stan tial increases in in ven tories w ere m en ’s-cloth in g, 25 p ercen t; autom obile-tireand-accessory, 3 7 p ercen t; and hardw are, 30 percent. L esser increases in in ven tories w ere reported by the rem aining lin es o f b u sin ess: fu rn itu re stores, 6 p ercen t; departm ent stores, 2 p ercen t; w om en ’s-ap p arel stores, 3 p ercen t; and jew elry stores, 8 percent. B esid es b ein g increased by greater in ven tories, current assets w ere exp an d ed b y a 32 percent in crease in total a c counts receiv a b le d uring 194 7 . R eflectin g the greater increase in in stalm en t sa les, in stalm en t accounts expanded 53 percent w h ile op en-credit accounts increased o n ly 22 percent. In each lin e o f b u sin ess excep t w om en ’s-apparel stores the rate o f in crease in in stalm en t accounts exceed ed the rate o f increase in op en-credit accounts. T he 76-percent increase in the total ac counts o f autom ob ile-tire-an d -accessory stores w as the great est, and the 61-percent in crease in the accounts o f h ouseh old a p p lia n ce stores w as next. T he stores reported in creases in accounts receiv a b le at the end o f 194 7 in a ll lin e s— m en’sclo th in g , 4 9 p ercen t; hardw are, 4 6 p ercen t; furniture, 38 p ercen t; jew elry , 32 p ercen t; departm ent, 28 p ercent; auto m o b ile, 22 p ercen t; and w om en ’s-ap p arel, 17 percent. c. T . T . Finance Incom e-tax p aym ents and T reasu ry debt retirem ents w ere re flected in S ix th D istrict m em ber-bank op eration s during M arch and A p ril. Checks draw n b y b u sin esses and in d i SALES BY TYPE OF TRANSACTION SIXTH DISTRICT REPORTING STORES 1947 RETAIL CREDIT SURVEY Percent oi Total Sales Type oi Retailer No. oi Reporting Stores D epartm ent.................................. F u rn itu re....................................... Auto tire & accessory........................ ......... Autom obile................................... Jew elry ......................................... H a rd w a re ..................................... M en's clothing......... .................. W om en's a p p a re l...................... Household ap pliance ......... ............................. All ty p e s ........................ .............. 136 150 88 58 36 63 38 48 219 594 Percent Change in Sales 1946-47 Open Credit Instalment Total Cash Cash 1946 1947 Open Credit 1946 1947 Instalment 1946 1947 + 3 + 13 — 6 — 19 4- 13 4- 10 4- 59 4- 23 57 18 51 13 39 6 43 6 4 76 6 81 — + — + + — — 4— — — — 25 40 20 2 4 11 — 10 + 31 4- 3 4- 17 4- 30 4-1 10 + 100 + 68 + 9 + 115 + 47 — 2 42 62 55 50 52 50 33 61 49 46 44 45 48 25 25 49 41 47 45 23 28 52 47 52 10 13 20 1 7 3 22 16 23 2 9 3 + 30 — 3 r f 48 4- 14 + 123 + 41 43 52 34 47 24 36 22 37 33 12 44 16 5 39 9 13 12 3 + 60 + 8 40 M o n t h ly R e v ie w o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 1948 v id u a ls on th eir d ep o sit b a la n ces to m eet ta x p aym en ts re su lted in a d eclin e o f 63 m illio n d o lla r s in dem and d ep osits ad ju sted betw een the la st W ed n esd ay in F eb ru ary and the en d o f M arch. T h e T reasu ry’s b a la n ce w ith th is bank in creased 61 m illio n d o lla rs. In order to tran sfer the fu n d s in v o lv ed , m em ber b anks re d u ced th eir reserves each w eek ; th e to ta l red u ction in M arch am ounted to 13 m illio n d o lla r s. T h ey a lso reduced th eir d e m and b ala n ces w ith other b anks 2 8 m illio n d o lla rs and their h o ld in g s o f G overnm ent secu rities 4 8 m illio n . B etw een the en d o f M arch and the m id d le o f A p r il m em ber-bank reserves in creased 2 3 m illio n d o lla r s, and at th e w eek ly rep ortin g banks dem and d ep o sits ad ju sted in creased 3 3 m illio n . B etw een F eb ru ary 2 7 and M arch 3 1 , th e T reasu ry’s re ceip ts exceed ed its ex p en d itu res to th e exten t that it w as a b le to retire ab ou t 1.1 b illio n d o lla r s w orth o f th e G overnm ent secu rities w h ich w ere h eld b y th e F ed era l R eserve B anks. T h is debt retirem ent w a s p art o f th e current p rogram to reliev e in flation ary p ressu res b y th e retirem en t o f th e debt h eld by banks, p a rticu la rly th at h eld b y th e F ed era l R eserve Banks, ou t o f b u d getary su rp lu ses. A n oth er a sp ect o f th e cu rren t p rogram to check in fla tio n a ry m ovem en ts is o fte n o v erlo o k ed . T h e A m erican s w ho ha v e b o u g h t a lm o st 6 9 b illio n d o lla r s w orth o f U n ited States sa v in g s b on d s sin c e M ay 1, 1 9 4 1 , d id m u ch to w ith h o ld p u rch a sin g p ow er fro m th e sp en d in g stream and thus U . S . S A V I N G S B O N D S , S E R IE S E, P U R C H A S E D A N D R E D E E M E D IN S I X T H D IS T R IC T S T A T E S F rom M a y 1941 t o a n d o f e a c h y e a r 1 9 4 1 -4 7 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 6 0 0 TOTAL SALES 500 REDEMPTIONS 4 0 0 300 200 i s ------------------------ OUTSTANDING 100 O r® '41 '42 ‘43 '44‘45 '46 '47 ‘41 *42 *43 *44 *45 *46'47 ALABAM A F L O R ID A ‘41 *42‘43 *44 * 5 *46 *47 G E O R G IA 6 0 0 500 4 0 0 300 200 100 ’41 ‘42 '43 '44 *45 '46 *47 L O U IS IA N A J *41 *42 *43'44‘4 5 ‘46'47 M IS S IS SIP P I *41 *42‘43'44 *45 *46‘47 TEN N ESSEE Source: U.S.Treasury Bulletins. Redemption data for 1941-44 were estimated on basis of U.S. experience; those for 1945-47 were adjusted to eliminate redemptions of Series A-D bonds and accrued discount from published data. M o n t h ly R e v ie w o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 1948 h elp ed to keep dow n b id d in g fo r scarce g o o d s and to check the risin g p rices. A bout 4 8 b illio n d o lla r s w orth o f the b onds so ld w ere S eries E bon d s, m ost o f w h ich w ere b ou gh t b y w age and salary earners. T h eir 1 9 46 p u rch ases o f 7 .5 b illio n d o lla rs am ounted to 4 6 p ercent o f the peak, 1 9 4 4 purchases, and th eir 1947 p u rchases o f 6 .9 b illio n d o lla rs to 4 2 percent. Over three b illio n d o lla rs, or 6 .5 percen t o f the U n ited States total, had been in vested b y in d iv id u a ls in th e S ix th D istrict states in Series E b onds sin ce e a r ly 1 9 4 1 . G eorgians m ade the largest investm ent, on e o f 5 9 8 m illio n d o lla rs, c lo s e ly fo llo w e d by the citizen s o f F lo rid a , w ith p u rch ases o f 5 8 8 m illio n d o lla rs, and th o se o f T en n essee, w ho bou gh t 5 8 6 m illio n d o lla rs w orth. T o ta l sa les in L o u isia n a am ounted to 5 4 0 m illio n d o lla rs, and th ose in M ississip p i to 3 3 0 m il lio n . In ad d ition to b u y in g S eries E b on d s, m an y in d iv id u a ls bought a la rg e part o f the m ore-than on e b illio n d o lla r s w orth o f S eries F and G sa v in g s b onds so ld in th e D istrict states d u rin g the sam e p eriod . W ith the total p u b lic debt at the end o f M arch am ou n tin g to 2 5 3 b illio n d o lla rs, the am ount represented b y p u rch ases o f S eries E b on ds in the S ix th D istrict states ap p ears in sign ifican t. Y et it assum es great im p ortan ce in a com p arison w ith other fin an cial statistics fo r th e area. T h e to ta l am ount is, fo r exam p le, 10 p ercen t larger than th e am ount o f p er son al dem and d ep osits in a ll th e banks o f the S ix States. It is equ al to m ore than h a lf the p erso n a l and b u sin ess d e m and d ep osits com bined . It exceed s b y 7 9 percen t th e total tim e d ep osits. It am ounts to ab ou t a fo u rth o f in d iv id u a l in com e paym en ts in these states fo r an y recent year. It is m ore than tw ice as m uch as the to ta l cost o f th e w ar m an u factu rin g fa c ilitie s in these states that w ere financed w h o lly or p artly w ith p u b lic fu n d s durin g th e years 1 9 4 0-45. I f a ll o f th is investm ent had been retained b y the purch asers and w ere kept intact, at m aturity it w o u ld h ave y ie ld ed them m ore than a b illio n d o lla rs in interest, w h ich is e q u iv a len t to ab ou t on e m onth’s total in com e received b y in d iv id u a ls in the D istrict states at the presen t tim e. On the assu m p tion that m ost o f the b on d s redeem ed in the S ix th D istrict states w ere pu rch ased there and that m ost o f the rem ain in g b onds p urchased in th o se states are s till h eld there, the estim ated tota l h o ld in g s o f S eries E b on d s at p u r ch ase price am ount to ab ou t 1.8 b illio n d o lla rs, or 5 7 percen t o f the p u rch a ses m ade in 1941-47. T he h o ld ers o f th ese b onds had by the first o f the year earned sufficient accrued d iscou n t to raise the v a lu e o f th eir h o ld in g s to ab ou t 1.9 b illio n d o lla rs. T h e continu ed h o ld in g o f th ose U n ited S tates sa v in g s b on d s a lread y purch ased and pu rch ases greater than th ose ty p ic a l o f the p ast year are in teg ra l parts o f the current program to check inflation ary pressu res. P ro sp ectiv e in creases in e x p en ditu res fo r n ation al d efen se, the E u rop ean R ecovery P r o gram , and the recen tly enacted tax-red u ction law a ll low er the budgetary su rp lu s that w o u ld b e a v a ila b le fo r red u cin g in flation ary pressures by retirem ent o f the bank-held p u b lic debt. C. T . T . Industry T he co a l strike that w as o fficia lly term inated A p r il 12 had se riou s effects in the D istrict. A m on g the first to be fe lt w ere, o f cou rse, the lack o f co a l p rod u ction , the id len ess o f the m iners, and the redu ctions in steel-m ill o p eration s. B efo re the end o f M arch these effects h ad becom e w id e spread . C oal output had d eclin ed p recip ita te ly , and opera S ix th 41 D is t r ic t S ta tis tic s CONDITION OF 28 MEMBER BANKS IN SELECTED CITIES (In Thousands of Dollars) Percent Change April 21 March 24 April 23 April 21, 1948, from 1948 1948 1947 March 24 April 23 1948 1947 Item Loans and investm ents— Total............................ ....... 2,290,830 2,317,450 2,338,205 Loans—to tal.......................... 828,026 835,384 705,745 Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans. 516,014 522,754 409,951 Loans to brokers and 6,016 6,554 dealers in se cu rities... 8,331 Other loans lor pur chasing and carrying securities................. ....... 58,221 57,673 82,568 Real estate lo an s........... 74,680 54,986 74,311 Loans to b anka................. 5,265 4,361 4,263 O ther lo an s............. ......... 167,830 169,731 145,646 Investm ents—to tal............... 1,462,804 1,482,066 1,632,460 U. S. direct obligations. 378,874 368,513 439,982 Obligations guaranteed by U. S............................ 899,448 928,085 1,005,750 Other securities............... 184,482 185,468 186,728 Reserve with F. R. Bank, .u 450,692 430,844 430,793 Cash in v au lt....................... 41,336 44,662 41,068 Balances with domestic b an k s.............................. 190,112 187,053 188,991 Demand deposits adjusted 1,741,332 1,745,147 1,741,115 Time/ dep o sits....................... 545,167 545,180 545,446 U. S. Gov't d ep o sits........... 37,608 33,196 49,738 Deposits of domestic banks 469,597 475,287 489,528 Borrow ings............................ 5,000 5,500 10,000 — 2 + 17 + 26 — 28 + 0 ± 21 —1 + 3 — 3 — 11 — 1 ± + 1 i+ 1 — 1 7 ± I —0 ± 'l ± 8 — 24 — 4 — 50 DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL BANE ACCOUNTS (In T housands of Dollars) No. of Banks Report ing Percent Change Mar. 1948 from Feb. Mar. 1948 1947 Mar. 1948 Feb. 1948 Mar. 1947 3 6 2 3 5 3 22,282 339,851 12,030 18,045 150,120 75,622 17,846 291,534 9,991 14,725 122,304 67,741 21,350 + 25 298,214 + 17 10,824 + 20 18,271 .+ 23 120,186 + 23 67,362 +. 12 3 7 12 3 3 3 3 283,428 281,680 403,231 54,274 37,453 60,256 120,039 238,689 255,910 357,835 45,998 28,948 52,224 115,252 247,365 + 239,007 + 343,252 + 49,807 + 30,215 + 55,846 + 108,904 + Savannah......... V aldosta........... 2 4 3 2 4 2 3 2 3 2 3 4 2 17,208 807,176 57,688 8,784 57,625 3,875 13,741 10,823 60,213 7,903 21,490 94,610 10,671 16,220 700,996 43,938 8,029 50,142 3,016 11,183 10,121 51,185 7,402 18,206 74,683 9,219 14,674 ,+ 6 719,437 + 15 51,964 + 31 8,873 + 9 57,736 .+ 15 3,634 +, 28 12,040 + 23 10,108 + 7 57,418 + 18 7,029 + 7 19,942 + 18 78,946 + 27 11,460 + 16 LOUISIANA Baton R ouge.. . Lake C h arles... New O rle a n s... 3 3 7 88,368 31,780 641,450 75,054 26,727 566,751 74,394 25,378 608,269 + 18 + 19 4* 25 + 5 16,137 149,611 28,947 25,483 14,283 108,464 22,022 20,914 16,776 + 13 123,617 + 38 26,978 + 31 22,577 + 22 — 4 + 21 Meridian V icksburg......... 2 4 3 2 TENNESSEE C h attan o o g a... Knoxville......... N ashville......... 4 4 6 142,212 107,444 280,415 120,009 97,903 246,572 131,099 105,476 262,845 SIXTH DISTRICT. 32 C ities..,........ 110 4,092,680 3,524,691 3,675,931 Place ALABAMA Anniston ........ Birmingham ___ D othan........... G ad sd en ........... M ontgom ery... FLORIDA Jacksonville___ G reater Miami* P ensacola......... St. Petersburg,. GEORGIA A u g u sta .. ---Brunsw ick....... C olum bus......... E lberton........... Gainesville*, .i. Griffin*............. M acon............... N ew nan............. MISSISSIPPI H attiesburg ___ UNITED STATES 333 C itie s.____ 107,621,000 90,266,000 93,308,000 *Not included in Sixth District total 19 10 13 18 29 15 4 <+ 19 + 13 + + + — •+ +1 4 14 11 1 25 12 + 15 + 18 .+ 17 + 9 +. 24 + 8 + 10 + + ll 12 .+ 11 — 1 + 0 7 -f* + 4* + — 5 12 8 20 7 — + + li7 + I + 13 + 22 + io + + 19 + 14 + 7 + 16 + 11 + 19 + 15 42 M o n t h ly R e v ie w o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 1948 tion s at steel m ills had d rop p ed to less than h a lf the rates that had p rev a iled a ll during last year and up to the m id d le o f M arch th is year. From 102 p ercen t o f rated ca p a city fo r the w eek b egu n M arch 16, reports show , the rates o f steel-m ill a ctiv ity d eclin ed to 9 0 percent fo r the w eek o f M arch 2 3 , to 6 9 percent fo r the w eek o f M arch 30, and to 4 6 p ercent for the w eek o f A p ril 6. P rod u ction at the E n sley S teel W orks o f the T en n essee C oal, Iron and R ailro a d C om pany w as cut in h a lf soon after the strike b egan — fo u r b la st fu rn aces w ere banked and fo u r open-hearth fu rn aces taken out o f p ro d u c tio n , resu ltin g in the id len ess o f about 1 ,5 0 0 em p lo y ees. T he W oodw ard Iron C om pany ann ou n ced the rem oval o f on e o f its stacks. R ep u b lic S teel C orporation shut dow n h a lf o f its coke oven s in B irm ingham and reduced its cok e-p rod u cin g o p eration s at G adsden 30 percent. C oal exp orts through the p ort o f M o b ile w ere stop p ed w hen the stock p ile s at the docks becam e exh au sted . In the first 11 w eeks o f the year co a l p rod u ction in A lab am a and T en n essee averaged 5 2 5 ,0 0 0 tons a w eek, o n ly 2 .6 p ercen t less than that in the corresp on d in g w eeks o f 1 9 4 7 . D u rin g the w eek ended M arch 20, how ever, outp u t d eclin ed to 1 8 4 ,0 0 0 ton s, and fo r the w eek ended M arch 2 7 it am ounted to o n ly 4 4 ,0 0 0 tons. First-quarter p rod u ction w as, as a con seq u en ce, 1 4 percent less this year than it w as last year. From 3 1 ,0 3 2 fo r the w eek ended M arch 13 freigh t-car lo a d in g s d rop p ed to 1 1 ,6 2 4 the fo llo w in g w eek, h ow ever, and to 6 ,1 3 6 in the w eek ended M arch 2 7 . T h u s the first quarter th is year ended w ith car lo a d in g s o f co a l, w h ich had show n an in crease o f 6.2 percent through the first tw o w eeks o f M arch over the figure fo r that p eriod last year, sh ow in g a d ecrease o f 4 .8 percen t fro m the first-quarter total last year. L oad in gs o f revenue freig h t b y th ose ra ilro a d s that com p rise the A sso cia tio n o f A m erican R a ilro a d s’ Southern d is trict, am ounted to 1 ,7 0 6 ,3 3 4 cars in the first 13 w eeks o f 1948. C om pared w ith lo a d in g s fo r that p erio d in 1947, th is total rep resents a d ecrease o f 4 .7 percen t and in clu d es few er lo a d in g s o f livestock , grain , and grain p r o d u c ts; m ore lo a d in g s o f coke in each o f the 13 w eek s; and few er lo a d in g s o f m erch an dise in less-th an -carload -lots in a ll but on e o f th ose w eeks. T here w ere 13 percen t few er lo a d in g s o f forest p roducts in the first quarter th is year than there w ere in that p eriod last year. W et w eather continued in M arch to be the c h ie f deterrent in lo g g in g and lu m b er-m ill o p eration s and in ou td oor co n struction w ork. D u rin g the first h a lf o f A p ril rain s w ere less frequ en t, and there w ere reports o f in creased activ ity . T here is still, o f course, an accu m u lated n eed fo r con stru ction o f a l m ost every kind, but see m in g ly the lim it to the num ber o f consum ers a b le and w illin g to m eet the h ig h costs is b ein g app roached. In d o lla r v a lu e con stru ction contracts aw arded in the D istrict d u rin g F ebruary, h ow ever, ex ceed ed those aw arded in January. T h e in crease w as o w in g e n tirely to a gain o f 21 p ercent in the v a lu e o f aw ards fo r resid en tia l co n struction, sin ce aw ards fo r other typ es o f b u ild in g d eclin ed 8 percent. T otal v a lu e o f aw ards in F ebruary w as a lm o st 72 m illio n d o lla rs, rep resen tin g an in crease o f about 53 percent over the F ebruary 1947 figure, w h ich is the sm a llest total fo r an y m onth in the p ast tw o years. T he d o lla r v a lu e o f resid en tia l aw ards w as alm ost d o u b le that o f a year ea rlier, and a ll other contracts w ere up ab ou t 2 7 percent. O f p articu lar in terest to the co tton -textile in d u stry in this cou ntry are the d evelop m en ts in the Jap an ese in d u stry as they are reported in the D ep artm en t o f A g ricu ltu re’s “T he C otton S itu a tio n ” fo r the first quarter o f 1 9 4 8 . B ecau se o f Jap an ’s ex p a n sio n o f its te x tile in d u stry after the first w orld war, the account states, that cou n try had becom e the w o rld ’s largest exp orter o f cotton clo th b y 1 9 3 3 . A t the peak, d uring 1934-37, these exp orts a veraged 2 .8 b illio n square yards a year, w ith the num ber o f in sta lled sp in d le s in the m ills aver a g in g about 11 m illio n . A la rg e p art o f the cotto n -textile-m ill eq u ip m en t in Jap an w as scrap p ed d u rin g W orld W ar II to p rod u ce m ilita ry m aterials. O n ly ab ou t a fifth o f the prew ar m ill cap a city rem ain ed in F eb ru ary 1 9 4 6 , w ith o n ly about 1.1 m illio n o f the 2 .2 m illio n in sta lle d sp in d le s o p era b le. On O c tober 1, 194 7 , the num ber o f in sta lle d sp in d les had increased to 2 .9 m illio n , o f w h ich 2 .8 m illio n w ere o p era b le and 1.5 m illio n a c tu a lly in op eration , T hat su b sta n tia l part o f the c a p a city fo r te x tile -m a c h in e r y p ro d u ctio n w h ich had re m ain ed in tact w as u sed m a in ly to rep a ir dam aged sp in d les and lo o m s in 1 9 4 6 and to p ro d u ce new sp in d les and lo o m s in 1 9 4 7 . R ecovery o f th e te x tile m ills, th e accou n t con tinues, w ill dep en d la r g e ly on th o se d ec isio n s w ith resp ect to textilem a n u fa ctu rin g m ach in ery that th e o cc u p y in g p ow ers m ake in co n n ectio n w ith p ro b lem s o f rep aration and the rem oval o f J a p a n ’s w ar p o ten tia l. T he m ills, a cco rd in g to rep orts in the p ress, h a ve recen tly requested that the current c e ilin g o f fo u r m illio n sp in d les be lifte d . C otton -textile ex p o rts fro m Jap an in January o f this y ear w ere rep o rted ly a lm o st 2 4 m illio n yards, w ith m ost o f it g o in g to Far E astern and M id d le E astern cou n tries. D. E. M. Agriculture C lou d y and ra in y w eather d u rin g the first quarter o f the year in som e sectio n s o f the S ix th D istrict h as caused m any read justm ents, p a rticu la rly in ag ricu ltu re. T h ere has been a v ir tual cessa tio n o f m an y k in d s o f ou td oor w ork, and the dete rioration o f roads b ecau se o f rain has m ade transportation difficult or im p o ssib le in p la ces. » In parts o f th e D istrict, p a rticu la rly in S ou th G eorgia and S ou th A lab am a, rain s h ave rep ea ted ly sent creeks out o f their banks and w ashed ea r ly p la n ted seed in to d rain age areas. M uch o f the fertiliz e r a p p lied b efo re or at p la n tin g tim e has leach ed out w ith the freq u en t d ren ch in g o f field s and w ill be o f little v a lu e to crop p ro d u ctio n . In som e in stan ces early p la n ted corn and p ean u ts h ave rotted fro m too m uch m oisture in the ground, and the p ea ch crop in som e sectio n s has been se rio u sly d am aged b y a la te fro st. M uch o f the d am age cau sed b y in clem en t w eather can be rep aired or overcom e, but som e is irrep a ra b le. W here, fo r in stance, fro st k ille d b u d d in g p each es, th e lo ss is fo r the dura tio n o f the year. A secon d crop is im p o ssib le , and, in sp ite o f a lo ss o f in com e, ex p en ses fo r p ru n in g , sp ra y in g , and cu ltiv a t in g go on. L osses o f th is k ind, o f cou rse, can be q u ite seriou s fo r an en tire com m u n ity b ecau se th ey can reduce the incom es o f b u sin ess and p r o fe ssio n a l m en as w e ll as th o se o f farm ers. In som e areas o f the D istrict p r o lo n g e d ra in y w eather has a lso m ade it v ir tu a lly im p o ssib le to turn under w inter le gum es. T ractors and m u les h a v e m ired in field s that have been w ater-logged fo r w eeks. T h e greater grow th attained by legu m es w ill, w ith ou t sig n ific a n tly in crea sin g th eir v a lu e as so il b u ild ers, m ake them m ore difficult to turn under, and farm ers u sin g m u les and sm a ll eq u ip m en t w ill h ave a p a r tic u la rly hard tim e d o in g th e jo b . T h e d ela y n ot o n ly w ill p o stp o n e the p la n tin g o f corn and oth er crop s that fo llo w legu m es but w ill create other p ro b lem s. A lth o u g h w eather research h a s p ro g ressed fo r m ore than a M o n t h ly R e v ie w o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 1948 h a lf century, w eather is still the m ost elu siv e factor affectin g farm p rod u ction . U n u su a lly w et w eather n ot o n ly h as an im m ed iate effect but in itiates a ch ain o f circum stances w hich m ay affect prod u ction th rou gh ou t the year and add greatly to the cost o f p roduction . A rain y sp rin g ca u sin g delayed p la n tin g w ill m ean later m atu rity o f the crop s and, p rob ab ly, greater dam age from in sects and d iseases. T h e b o ll w eev il is m uch m ore o f a prob lem w hen the cotton m atures la te than it is w hen the crop m atures ea rly . M any farm ers, th erefore, o ften p lan t ea rly and take a chance on the w eather in the h o p e that the crop w ill m ature b efo re the w ee v ils get a g ood start. T he peanut w orm is a lso a seriou s p est in field s that are p lan ted late. It is p o ssib le , o f course, to check b o ll w ee v ils and p eanut w orm s w ith p o iso n s, but th is in creases p ro d u ction costs and rain o ften w ashes the p o iso n off b efo re it h as had tim e to have fu ll effect. U su a lly a w et and clo u d y sp rin g m eans that the first cu ttin g o f h ay cannot be cured and w ill, therefore, be lost. T he credit requirem ents o f farm ers m a y b e altered b y w eather con d ition s. Farm p rod u ction lo a n s, con serv a tiv ely estim ated at the b eg in n in g o f the year, m ay su d d en ly ap p ear in adeq uate to m eet the costs o f reseed in g, a p p ly in g ad d itio n a l q u an tities o f fertilizer, h irin g a d d itio n a l lab or, or b u y in g p o iso n s. Solne farm ers w ill request su p p lem en ta ry lo a n s in order to com p lete their p rod u ction sch ed u les, but the total lo a n m igh t then be h igh er than a con servative lo a n p o lic y w ou ld perm it. T h e banker is then fa ced w ith the n ecessity o f either gran tin g ad d itio n a l fu n d s to better h is chances fo r recovery o f the o rig in a l lo a n or risk in g the lo ss o f h is cu s tom er to another lender. Som e district bankers h ave fe lt the effects o f the adverse w eather con d ition s th rou gh other ty p es o f borrow ers also . T he in a b ility o f w orkers to harvest tim ber or tu rp en tin e, to b u ild h ou ses, or to perform other typ es o f o u tsid e w ork has in som e section s resulted in a decrease in d ep osits. S m a ll m er chants and dealers are fin d in g that th eir accounts receiv a b le h ave grow n to such p rop ortion s th ey m ust now borrow from b anks to con tin u e carryin g them . H ardw are and fa rm -su p p ly d ealers w ill lik e ly seek ad d itio n a l credit to stock m ore p o i son s, sprayers, fertilizers, and seed. W ith d ep osits d im in ish in g and credit-needs exp an d in g, bankers fe e l the effects o f w eather alm ost as acu tely as th ose d irectly affected. It is alm ost im p o ssib le to estim ate accu rately the d am age to crop p rod uction in th ose areas o f the D istrict w h ich have had ex cessiv e r a in fa ll. T im e and m on ey h ave been lost, and, th ou gh good y ield s o f m ost crop s are s till p o ssib le w ith fa v o ra b le w eather fo r the rem ainder o f the season , the p rod u c tio n costs w ill be h igh er than th ey w o u ld h ave been if the w eather had been fav o ra b le in the e a rly m onths. T here is a lw a y s a tend en cy to overestim ate the dam age from ex cessiv e r a in fa ll, p a rticu la rly w hen it occurs ea rly in the season . S in ce farm s in the D istrict are now m ore m echanized than ever, it is p o ssib le to m ake up som e o f the lo st tim e. W here necessary, tractors and tractor-draw n eq u ip m en t can b e operated day and n igh t u n til the w ork is com p leted . T h erefore, fa v o ra b le w eather fo r the n ext few m onths co u ld go fa r tow ard im p ro v in g the D istrict’s a gricu ltu ra l prosp ects. J. L. L. S ix th 43 D is t r ic t S ta tis t ic s INSTALMENT CASH LOANS Volume Outstandings No. oi Percent Change Lenders Percent C hange Lenders Report March 1948 irom March 1948 irom ing February March February March 1948 1947 1947 1948 Federal credit u n io n s......... 46 + 23 + 62 4- 70 4- 5 State credit un io n s............. 25 + 101 + 55 4- 28 + 6 Industrial banking com panies.......................... 11 +■ 22 4- 18 4- 13 4- 1 Industrial loan com panies. 18 + 13 4- 0 4- 0 4- 4 Small loan companies 43 + 34 4* 8 4- 10 4- 0 Commercial b an k s............... 34 + 62 4- 21 4- 59 + 4 RETAIL FURNITURE STORE OPERATIONS Item Total sa le s.......................................... Cash sa le s...................................... Instalment and other credit sa le s .. Accounts receivable, end of month Collections during m onth............... Inventories, end of m onth............. Num ber Percent C hange oi March 1948 irom Stores Reporting F ebruary 1948 March 1947 90 4- 23 4- 0 82 4- 22 — 23 82 4- 24 4- 4 89 4- 41 j4- 0 89 4- 3 4- 2 63 >+ 15 4- 4 WHOLESALE SALES AND INVENTORIES* SALES INVENTORIES Percent Change Percent C hange No. oi March 1948 irom No. oi Mar. 31, 1948, irom Item Firms Firms Report Mar. Report Feb. 29 Mar. 31 Feb. ing 1947 ing 1948 1948 1947 Automobile supplies. — 2 + 28 Electrical G ro u p ---- W iring su p p lies.. . 3 + 38 A ppliances........... 3 4- 13 General h ard w are... 9 + 23 Industrial hardw are. 4 — 9 + 23 + 5 Jew elry........................ 5 4- 16 — 3 — 14 Plumbing and heat ing su p p lies........... 4 — 17 +i 20 + 82 4- 12 C onfectionery........... 5 4- 35 4- 16 Drugs and sundries. 9 4 + 12 4- 5 4- ’4 4- ’ 5 Dry g o o d s................... 19 — 1 13 + 16 + 7 4- 20 G roceries............... 35 Full lin e s................. — 0 4“ 18 23 — 3 43 6 Specialty lin e s....... 4- 28 3 — 5 + 7 4- 6 Tobacco pro d u cts. . . . 10 4 + 6 4- 5 + 12 + 1 17 M iscellaneous........ rf 28 13 4- 11 4* 1 + 34 134 Total........... ........ 4- 16 78 + 6 4- 2 4- 16 * Based on U. S. Departm ent of Commerce figures DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND INVENTORIES tflace ALABAMA B irm ingham .... M obile........ ...... M ontgom ery... FLORIDA Jacksonville---O rlando............. GEORGIA A u g u s ta ._____ C olum bus......... Rom e................. S av an n ah .. . . . . LOUISIANA Baton R ouge... New O rle a n s... MISSISSIPPI Jackson............. M eridian_____ TENNESSEE B ristol.............. C hattanooga__ Knoxville......... N ashville......... OTHER CITIES*.. DISTRICT............. No. oi Stores Report ing SALES Percent Change March 1948 from Feb. Mar. 1948 1947 INVENTORIES No. of Percent Change Stores Mar. 31, 1948, irom Report Feb. 29 Mar. 31 ing 1948 1947 5 5 3 4- 40 4- 48 4- 34 4- 22 4- 24 4- 11 4 + 1 4- 34 3 4- i 4- 4 4 3 5 4444- 35 13 26 29 4444- 15 14 40 15 3 3 4- 1 — 10 3 + '6 4-» 23 6 4 3 4 3 4 444444- 36 53 49 47 60 53 444444- 13 5 28 5 16 21 5 3 + ii 4- 1 4- 19 — 1 4 — ‘8 — i6 4 5 4- 48 4- 47 ,4- 24 4- 22 4 4 4” 3 4- 12 4- 19 4 3 4- 32 4- 62 4- 15 4- 9 4 + 6 4- 18 4444- 4- 12 + 7 + 11 4- 16 4- 10 + 16 3 3 44- 5 1 — 1 + 6 5 22 73 4- 7 4- 5 4- 20 4- 15 4- 15 3 4 4 6 19 105 44- 43 42 32 53 32 37 4- 10 i 4* 27 4- 10 + 7 *W hen few er than three stores report in a given city, the sales or stocks are grouped together under "other cities." 44 M o n t h ly R e v ie w N a t i o n a l o f th e F ederal R eserve B a n k o f A tla n ta fo r A p r il 1948 B u s in e s s c o a l ou tp u t reduced in d u stria l p rod u ction in M arch and the e a rly part o f A p r il. V a lu e o f departm entstore sa les continu ed at a lev e l ab ou t 6 p ercen t h ig h er than in the co rresp on d in g p erio d a year a g o . T h e g en eral le v e l o f w h olesale-com m od ity p r ice s in creased som ew hat. C u r t a il e d Industrial Production In d u strial prod u ction d eclin ed s lig h tly in M arch o w in g to a sharp red uction in b itu m in o u s-co a l ou tp u t a fter the m id d le o f the m on th ; and the B oard ’s se a so n a lly ad ju sted in d ex w as 192 percent o f the 1 935-3 9 a v erage as com pared w ith 1 9 4 in F eb ru ary. C ontinuation o f w ork sto p p a g es at co a l m in es in A p r il has reduced to ta l in d u stria l p rod u ction furth er th is m onth. P rod u ction o f d u rab le m an u factu res in creased in M arch, m a in ly b ecause o f larg er ou tp u t o f steel and a u to m o b iles. S teel prod u ction fo r the m on th w as at a new record p ea ce tim e rate. S teel-m ill o p era tio n s w ere som ew h at cu rta iled at the end o f M arch, b ecau se o f reduced su p p lie s o f co a l, an d d eclin ed co n sid era b ly in th e first three w eeks o f A p r il. A c tiv ity in the au to m o b ile in d u stry exp an d ed in M arch to earlier postw ar-peak rates, after b ein g cu rta iled b y fu el sh ortages in F ebruary. P ro d u ctio n o f m ach in ery and m ost other d u rab le go o d s w as m ain tain ed at ab ou t th e le v e l o f the p reced in g m onths. O utput o f n on d u rab le-g o o d s in d u stries as a grou p d e creased s lig h tly in M arch. A ctiv ity d eclin ed in th e cottontex tile , rubber-products, coke, flour, and m eat-p ack in g in d u s tries but in creased in th e ray o n -tex tile, p aper-board, and a lco h o lic-b ev era g e in d u stries. A su b sta n tia l red u ction in m eat p rod u ction under F ed eral in sp ectio n reflected w ork sto p p a g es in p lan ts o f m ajor packers b eg u n M arch 16! P ap erb oard p r o duction , fo llo w in g som e cu rtailm en t in F ebruary, in creased 7 percen t to a new record rate. O utput o f m in erals d eclin ed 10 percen t in M arch, reflect in g a drop in co a l p rod u ctio n due to w ork sto p p a g es at m ost m in es b egu n M arch 15. C oal-m ine o p era tio n s con tin u ed at a very lo w le v e l d u ring th e first tw o w eeks o f A p r il b ut su b seq u en tly in creased sh a rp ly fo llo w in g settlem en t o f an in d u strial d isp ute. Construction V a lu e o f construction contracts aw arded, acco rd in g to the F . W . D o d g e C orporation, sh ow ed little ch a n g e in M arch, as a d eclin e in p u b lic aw ards offset a sea so n a l in crease in p r i vate aw ards m a in ly fo r resid en tia l b u ild in g . T h e num ber o f d w ellin g u n its started in M arch, a cco rd in g to estim ates o f the D epartm ent o f L abor, w as 6 7 ,0 0 0 , com p ared w ith 4 7 ,0 0 0 in F ebruary and 5 8 ,4 0 0 in M arch 1 9 4 7 . Distribution D epartm ent-store sa le s in M arch and th e e a rly part o f A p r il show ed little ch an ge fro m th e average le v e l o f 2 8 4 p ercen t o f the 1935-39 average fo r January and F ebruary, a fter a llo w ance w as m ade fo r the u su a l sea so n a l fluctuation. V a lu e o f d epartm ent-store stock s reached a new p eak at th e end o f F ebruary, w hen the B oard ’s se a so n a lly ad ju sted in d ex w as 3 0 3 p ercen t o f the 1935 -3 9 average. W ork stop p ages sh a rp ly reduced ra ilro a d sh ip m en ts o f c o a l and coke from the e a rly part o f M arch to the m id d le C o n d itio n s o f A p r il. L o a d in g s o f fo r est p rod u cts and g en era l m erchan d ise con tin u ed to sh ow little ch an ge. Commodity Prices T h e gen era l le v e l o f w h o le sa le co m m o d ity p rices increased som ew h at fro m th e b eg in n in g o f M arch to th e th ird w eek o f A p r il. P ric e s ad van ced sh a r p ly reflectin g p ro sp ects o f in creased ex p o rts. M eat p rices w ere a lso h ig h er, o w in g to re d u ced su p p lie s a s a resu lt o f th e strik e in th e p a ck in g in dustry. H o g p rices, o n th e oth er h an d , d e clin ed co n sid era b ly fu rth er. P rices o f other farm p rod u cts and fo o d and in d u s tria l co m m o d ities g e n e r a lly sh ow ed little ch an ge. A fu rth er sm a ll red u ctio n in reta il fo o d p rices fro m m idF eb ru ary to m id-M arch lo w ered th e con su m ers’ p rice in d ex fro m 1 6 7 .5 p ercen t o f th e 1 9 3 5 -3 9 a v era g e to 1 6 6 .9 . R etail p rices o f a p p a rel and h o m e fu r n ish in g s and ren tal rates rose som ew h at further. Bank Credit D u rin g the first th ree w eek s o f A p r il, in con trast to the situ a tio n in M arch, th e G overnm ent’s cash p aym en ts exceed ed receip ts and the T rea su ry ’s b a la n ce at F ed era l R eserve B anks d eclin ed sh a rp ly . A s a con seq u en ce, com m ercial-b an k re serves and d ep o sits, w h ich h ad b een u n der a severe drain in M arch, in creased som ew h at in A p r il. T o ta l G overnm ent-security h o ld in g s o f the reserve banks d eclin ed fu rth er b y ab ou t o n e -h a lf b illio n d o lla r s d u rin g the first three w eeks o f A p r il, fo llo w in g a sm a ll d eclin e in M arch. T reasu ry retirem ent in M arch an d ea r ly A p r il o f 1.3 b illio n d o lla rs o f secu rities h e ld b y reserve b anks w as offset in part b y system p u rch ases in th e m arket. R eal-estate and con su m er lo a n s at b anks in le a d in g cities con tin u ed to ex p a n d d u rin g M arch and the first h a lf o f A p r il, w h ile com m ercial an d in d u stria l lo a n s d eclin e d som ew hat. H o ld in g s o f G overnm ent secu ritie s w ere red u ced over th e p erio d . Security Markets P rices o f com m on stock s rose sh a rp ly in th e la st h a lf o f M arch an d the th ird w eek o f A p r il. T ra d in g in th e N ew Y ork stock ex ch a n g e w as m ore active. P ric es o f co rp o rate bonds w ere firm er in the first th ree w eek s o f A p r il, and p rices o f m u n icip a l b on d s con tin u ed to ad van ce. T B a n k he B oard of G overnors A n n o u n c e m e n ts The Columbia Bank of Ybor City, Tampa, Florida became a member of the Federal Reserve System on April 16. For almost 2 5 years it has served this colorful Latin quarter of Tampa. The officers of the bank are A . / . Grimaldi, president; Harry N. Sandler and Henry Scaglione , vice presidents; John Lazzara, vice president and cashier; and Charles P . Alonso, assistant cashier. This bank has capital stock amounting to $ 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 , surplus and undivided profits to $ 1 3 6 ,2 0 0 , and deposits to $ 5 ,1 6 3 ,0 0 0 .
@FedFRASER