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Economic Report
of the President
Transmitted to the Congress
February 1983
TOGETHER WITH
THE ANNUAL REPORT
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1983
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402
CONTENTS
Page
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT
1
ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS*
9
CHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSION TO RECOVERY AND GROWTH
17
CHAPTER 2. T H E DUAL PROBLEMS OF STRUCTURAL AND CYCLICAL
UNEMPLOYMENT
29
CHAPTER 3.
THE
UNITED STATES IN THE WORLD
ECONOMY:
STRAINS ON THE SYSTEM
51
CHAPTER 4. INCREASING CAPITAL FORMATION
77
CHAPTER 5. T H E BURDEN OF ECONOMIC REGULATION
96
CHAPTER 6. REVIEW OF 1982 AND THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
124
APPENDIX A. REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF
THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1982
APPENDIX B. STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME, EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION
,
*For a detailed table of contents of the Council's Report, see page IS.
(Ill)
147
157
ECONOMIC REPORT
OF THE PRESIDENT
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT
To the Congress of the United States:
Two years ago, I came to Washington with a deep personal commitment to change America's economic future. For more than a
decade, the economy had suffered from low productivity growth and
a rising rate of inflation. Government spending absorbed an increasing share of national income. A shortsighted view of economic priorities was destroying our prospects for long-term prosperity.
The economic program that I proposed shortly after I took office
emphasized economic growth and a return to price stability. My tax
proposals were designed to encourage private initiative and to stimulate saving and productive investment. I have supported and encouraged the Federal Reserve Board in its pursuit of price stability
through sound monetary policy. My Administration has slowed the
growth of Federal regulation, strengthening the forces of competition
in a number of economic sectors. And I have worked with the Congress to enact legislation that has reversed or limited the growth of
government programs that have become too large or outlasted their
usefulness.
Although the full effect of these changes in government policy will
take time to develop, some of the benefits have already become apparent. The rate of consumer price inflation between December 1981
and December 1982 was only 3.9 percent, about one-third of the rate
in the year before I took office. Interest rates are now lower than
when I took office, and have fallen rapidly during the last 6 months.
The Administration will propose many additional measures over
the next several years to strengthen economic incentives, reduce burdensome regulations, increase capital formation, and raise our standard of living. It is easy to lose sight of these long-term goals in a
year, like 1982, when the economy was in an extended recession. I
am deeply troubled by the current level of unemployment in the
United States and by the suffering and anxiety that it entails for millions of Americans. The unemployment that many of our citizens are
experiencing is a consequence of the disinflation that must necessarily follow the accelerating inflation of the last decade. Allowing the
upward trend of inflation to continue would have risked even greater
increases in unemployment in the future. In spite of the present high
unemployment rate and the accompanying hardships, it is essential
that we maintain the gains against inflation that we have recently
achieved at substantial cost. Continuing success in restraining inflation will provide a stronger foundation for economic recovery in
1983 and beyond.
Reducing
Unemployment
The Federal Government can play an important role in reducing
unemployment. I believe, however, that the government should focus
its attention on those groups that will continue to face high unemployment rates even after the recovery has begun. By helping them
to develop their job-related skills, we will foster productive careers in
the private sector rather than dead-end jobs. This emphasis on training and private sector employment is the focus of the Jobs Training
Partnership Act that I supported and signed into law in 1982. I am
proposing additional steps this year to strengthen Federal training
and retraining programs and to help the structurally unemployed
find lasting jobs.
It is understandable that many well-meaning members of the Congress have responded to the current high unemployment rate by proposing various public works and employment programs. However, I
am convinced that such programs would only shift unemployment
from one industry to another at the cost of increasing the Federal
budget deficit.
Although programs to help the structurally unemployed are important, only a balanced and lasting recovery can achieve a substantial
reduction in unemployment. There are now over four million more
unemployed people than there were at the peak of the last business
cycle. Nine million new workers are expected to join the labor force
by 1988. Only a healthy and growing economy can provide the more
than 13 million jobs needed to achieve a progressively lower level of
unemployment over the next 5 years.
The Prospects for Economic Recovery
There are now signs that an economic recovery will begin soon. By
December 1982 the index of leading economic indicators had risen in
7 of the last 8 months. Housing starts have risen substantially over
the last year, and by December 1982 were 39 percent higher than 12
months earlier. Inventory levels have fallen sharply, so that increased
sales should translate quickly into increased production and employment. Both long-term and short-term interest rates have fallen substantially. The Administration's economic forecast predicts that the
gross national product will begin to rise in the first quarter of 1983
and will then rise more quickly as the year continues. Most private
forecasters also predict a recovery in 1983.
Monetary policy will play a critical role in achieving a sound and
sustainable economic recovery. If the monetary aggregates grow too
slowly, the economy will lack the level of financial resources needed
for continued economic growth. But if these aggregates are allowed
to expand too rapidly, an increase in inflation and a short-lived recovery will result. I recognize the difficulties that the Federal Reserve
has faced and will continue to face in guiding the growth of the
money supply at a time when major regulatory changes have made it
difficult to rely on old guidelines. I expect that in 1983 the Federal
Reserve will expand the money supply at a moderate rate consistent
with both a sustained recovery and continued progress against inflation.
Investment and Economic Growth
An economic recovery beginning in 1983 should bring not only a
reduction in unemployment but also an increase in business investment over the next several years. A higher level of investment is an
important ingredient in raising productivity and economic growth.
The Accelerated Cost Recovery System that I proposed and that the
Congress enacted in 1981 was designed to encourage a substantial
expansion of business investment above the relatively low levels of
the 1970s. Since that time the adverse effects of the recession have
outweighed the positive effects of the new tax rules. As the economy
turns from recession to recovery, however, incentives to invest will
become more powerful. But business investment may not grow rapidly unless measures proposed by the Administration to reduce potentially large Federal budget deficits are enacted.
Federal borrowing competes with private investment for available
savings. If the government continues to borrow large amounts to finance its deficit, the real interest rate will remain high and discourage private investment. This process of "crowding out" will tend to
depress private investment in the years ahead unless the budget deficit is progressively reduced.
Fiscal Year 1984 Budget Proposals
It is important to distinguish the cyclical part of the budget deficit
from the structural part, which would remain even at the peak of the
business cycle. Approximately one-half of the 1983 budget deficit is
due to the depressed state of the economy. With earnings and profits
reduced, tax receipts have significantly decreased, and expenditures
have increased. As the economy recovers, the cyclical part of the deficit will shrink. But cyclical recovery alone will not bring the deficit
down to an acceptable size.
In the budget I am now submitting to the Congress, I am proposing the dramatic steps needed to reduce Federal budget deficits in
future years. My budget proposals are designed to reduce the deficit
by dealing directly with the rapid growth of the domestic spending
programs (apart from interest payments) of the Federal Government.
In 1970 these programs accounted for 10 percent of the gross national product and 48 percent of Federal spending. By 1980 these
programs had grown to 14 percent of gross national product and 63
percent of the budget. I remain committed to the idea that we can
reduce budget deficits without increasing the burden on the poor,
without weakening our national defense, and without destroying economic incentives by counterproductive tax increases.
Rapid congressional enactment of the budget would provide clear
and credible evidence that the Federal Government intends not to
place heavy burdens on the capital markets in future years. Such reassurance should hasten the decline in interest rates, especially longterm interest rates on bonds and residential mortgages, and improve
prospects for the recovery of the housing, automobile, and capital investment sectors of the economy.
I recognize the special importance of protecting the social security
and medicare programs for aged retirees and their dependents.
These programs now face very serious financial problems. The bipartisan National Commission on Social Security Reform has recently
recommended a series of measures, which I have endorsed, to eliminate the cumulative deficiency of $150 billion to $200 billion projected for the social security system in the years 1983 through 1989. It is
critically important at this time to make changes in the social security
programs that will protect their solvency and financial viability for
the years to come.
The Remaining Burden of Federal Economic Regulation
For many decades, the Federal Government has regulated the price
and entry conditions affecting several sectors of the American economy. Much of this regulation is no longer appropriate to the conditions of the contemporary economy. Over time, most of this regulation—by restraining competition and the development of new services and technologies—has not served the interests of either consumers or producers. Since deregulation of some markets began several
years ago, the experience has been almost uniformly encouraging.
My Administration has supported these step-by-step efforts to reduce these regulations in markets that would otherwise be competitive. It is now time to consider broad measures to eliminate many of
these economic regulations especially as they affect the natural gas,
transportation, communications, and financial markets.
Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade Deficit
The very high levels of real interest rates over the last several years
are a principal cause of the sharp rise in the exchange value of the
dollar relative to foreign currencies. This rise has reduced the ability
of American exporters to compete in foreign markets and increased
the competitiveness of imports in the domestic market. Largely as a
result, the U.S. merchandise trade balance showed a substantial deficit in 1982.
Our current trade deficit is a reminder of the importance of international trade to the American economy. The export share of U.S.
gross national product has more than doubled over the last three
decades. American workers, businesses, and farmers suffer when foreign governments prevent American products from entering their
markets, thus reducing U.S. export levels. While the United States
may be forced to respond to the trade distorting practices of foreign
governments through the use of strategic measures, such practices do
not warrant indiscriminate protectionist actions, such as domestic
content rules for automobiles sold in the United States. Widespread
protectionist policies would hurt American consumers by raising
prices of the products they buy, and by removing some of the pressures for cost control and quality improvement that result from international competition. Moreover, protectionism at home could hurt
the workers, farmers, and firms in the United States that produce
goods and services for export, since it would almost inevitably lead
to increased protectionism by governments abroad. I am committed
to a policy of preventing the enactment of protectionist measures in
the United States, and I will continue working to persuade the other
nations of the world to eliminate trade distorting practices that
threaten the viability of the international trading system upon which
world prosperity depends.
Trade in goods and services is only one aspect of our economic
relations with the rest of the world. The international flow of capital
into the United States and from the United States to other countries
is also of great importance. The United States should play a primary
role in preserving the vitality of the international capital market.
Severe strains on that market developed in 1982 as several nations
found it difficult to service their overseas debt obligations. In 1982,
the Federal Government worked closely with debtor and creditor nations and the major international lending agencies to prevent a disruption in the functioning of world capital markets. Now, with the cooperation of a wide variety of creditors, countries with especially
severe debt-servicing difficulties are establishing economic and financial programs that will permit them to meet their international obligations.
The Years Ahead
We are now at a critical juncture for the American economy. The
recession has led to strong pressures from some members of the
Congress and from others to abandon our commitment to a policy
that is aimed at long-term economic growth, capital accumulation,
and price stability. There are many who urge new government
spending programs and forcing the Federal Reserve to raise monetary growth rates to levels that would rekindle inflation.
I am convinced that such policies would prove detrimental to the
long-run interests of the American people. Our economy, despite the
recession, is extraordinarily resilient and is now on the road to a
healthy recovery. It is essential in the year ahead that the Administration and the Congress work together, take a long-term perspective,
and pursue economic policies that lead to sustained economic growth
and to greater prosperity for all Americans.
(j ^
February 2, 1983
CTVAJULAA^ \ C J L ^ M J ^ K ^
THE ANNUAL REPORT
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,
Washington, D.C., January 31, 1983.
MR. PRESIDENT:
The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its 1983
Annual Report in accordance with the provisions of the Employment
Act of 1946 as amended by the Full Employment and Balanced
Growth Act of 1978.
Sincerely,
N\ Cutter
Martin Feldstein
CHAIRMAN
William A. Niskanen
11
CONTENTS
Page
CHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSION TO RECOVERY AND GROWTH
Legacies of the 1970s
.
Rising Unemployment
Declining Productivity Growth
Rising Inflation
The Recession
The Decline in Velocity
The Economic Recovery
Implementing a Stable Monetary Policy
The Budget Deficit
CHAPTER 2. THE DUAL PROBLEMS OF STRUCTURAL AND CYCLICAL
UNEMPLOYMENT
The Recent Recession
The Composition of Cyclical and Structural Unemployment
Demographic Composition
Reasons for Unemployment
The Dynamics of Unemployment
Combating Cyclical Unemployment
The Limits of Macroeconomic Policy
Public Works Employment Programs
Combating Structural Unemployment
The Problem of Youth Unemployment
Policies to Reduce Youth Unemployment
Long-Term Unemployment and Structural Change
The Effects of Unemployment Compensation
Conclusions
CHAPTER 3. THE UNITED STATES IN THE WORLD
STRAINS ON THE SYSTEM
29
29
31
31
33
35
37
37
39
41
42
44
45
47
49
ECONOMY:
Long-Run Trends in U.S. Competitiveness: Perceptions
and Realities
Aggregate Performance of the United States and
Other Developed Countries
The Changing Structure of the U.S. Balance of Payments
The Issue of U.S. Trade with Japan
13
17
18
18
18
19
20
21
23
23
26
51
52
52
53
56
Page
The Problem of Uncompetitive Sectors
Challenges to U.S. Trade Policy
Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments
Causes of the Dollar's Strength
An Undervalued Yen?
Effects of a Strong Dollar on U.S. Trade
Responses to the Strong Dollar
Macroeconomic Problems in Europe
The International Debt Problem
Debt-Financed Growth in the 1970s
Causes of the Liquidity Problem
Implications of the Debt Problem
58
60
61
61
65
66
67
70
72
72
73
74
CHAPTER 4. INCREASING CAPITAL FORMATION
77
The Historical Record
An International Perspective
The Importance of Capital Formation
Measuring National Saving
Budget Deficits and Saving
Tax Rules and Personal Saving
Financial Regulation and Private Saving
The Role of International Capital Flows
The Allocation of Capital
Tax Policy and Investment
Conclusions
78
80
82
85
86
87
89
90
91
92
95
CHAPTER 5. THE BURDEN OF ECONOMIC REGULATION
A Brief History of Economic Regulation
The Traditional Rationale for Economic Regulation....
Problems of Economic Regulation
Energy Policy
Steps Toward a Market-Oriented Oil Policy
Natural Gas Pricing and Allocation
Emergency Preparedness
Transportation and Communications
Effects of Aviation Deregulation
Effects of Partial Deregulation in Surface Transportation
Further Deregulation of Surface Transportation
Common Carrier Telecommunications
Broadcasting
Deregulation of Financial Markets
Depository Institutions
Stock Exchanges
Opportunities for Further Deregulation in the Financial Industry
14
96
96
98
100
102
102
102
106
108
109
110
112
114
115
115
116
119
121
Page
Conclusions
122
CHAPTER 6. REVIEW OF 1982 AND THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Overview of 1982
Major Sectors of Aggregate Demand
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Residential Investment
Business Fixed Investment
Inventory Investment
The Farm Economy
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Labor Market Developments
Wages, Productivity, and Prices..
Credit Markets
Interest Rates
Monetary Developments
Prospects for 1983
Prospects and Policies Beyond 1983
124
124
126
127
128
129
130
130
132
132
133
134
136
137
139
142
143
APPENDIXES
A. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council
of Economic Advisers During 1982
B. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment and
Production
List of Tables and Charts
147
157
Tables
2-1. Median Family Income by Unemployment and Family
Status, 1981
2-2. Educational and Labor Market Activities of Youth Aged
16 to 19, by Sex, October 1981
3-1. Structure of the U.S. Balance of Payments, as Percent of
GNP, 1960-80
3-2. Trade Balances by Commodity Group as Percent of
GDP, United States, Japan, and the European Economic Community, 1980
3-3. Trade Balances by Region as Percent of GDP, United
States and Japan, 1980
3-4. U.S. Trade Balances by Sector as Percent of GDP,
1972-79
3-5. Real Appreciation of the Dollar Against Major Currencies to August 1982
3-6. Economic Performance by Major Industrial Countries,
1973-82
3-7. Employment and Unemployment in the European Economic Community, 1973-80
15
30
42
55
57
58
58
66
71
72
List of Tables and Charts—Continued
Tables
4-1. Alternative Measures of Capital Formation, 1951-82
4-2. Comparison of Capital Formation in Six OECD Countries, 1971-80
4-3. Net Saving as Percent of GNP, 1951-81
4-4. Investment Incentives under Different Tax Laws
6-1. Growth in Major Sectors of Real GNP, 1978-82
6-2. Real Household Income, Consumption, Saving, and
Residential Investment, 1978-82
6-3. Labor Market Developments, 1978-82
6-4. Changes in Wages and Compensation, 1978-82
6-5. Productivity, Costs, and Prices in the Nonfarm Business
Sector, 1978-82
6-6. Price Changes, 1978-82
6-7. Funds Raised by the Nonfinancial Sector of the Economy, 1978-82
6-8. Components of Ml and M2, 1978-82
6-9. Economic Outlook for 1983
6-10. Projections of Economic Goals, 1983-88
79
81
85
93
127
128
133
134
135
136
136
141
143
144
Charts
2-1.
2-2.
2-3.
2-4.
2-5.
3-1.
3-2.
3-3.
3-4.
4-1.
4-2.
4-3.
6-1.
6-2.
6-3.
6-4.
6-5.
Distribution of Unemployment by Age and Sex
Distribution of Unemployment by Family Status
Distribution of Unemployment by Race
Distribution of Unemployment by Reason
Distribution of Unemployment by Duration
Structural Changes in the Current Account Balance
Composition of Trade, 1980
Real Exchange Rates of Major Currencies Against the
Dollar
International Real Short-Term Interest Rate Differentials
Measures of Capital Formation
International Comparison of Investment and Productivity Growth, 1971-80
Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate and Regulation Q,
Maximum Rate on Savings Accounts
Interest Rates
Index of Leading Indicators and Real GNP
Debt Burden Ratio
Real Inventory/Sales Ratio and Industrial Production
Nominal and Real 3-Month Treasury Bill Yield
16
32
33
34
35
36
55
57
63
64
80
82
90
125
126
129
131
138
CHAPTER 1
From Recession to Recovery and
Growth
THE MAJOR ECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENT OF 1982 was a dramatic reduction of inflation to its lowest rate in a decade. The 4.6
percent increase in the gross national product (GNP) implicit price
deflator between the fourth quarters of 1981 and 1982 was less than
half the 10.2 percent rate of increase between the fourth quarters of
1979 and 1980. This decline in inflation has moderated the earlier
widespread fears that inflation would accelerate. While some of this
improvement in inflation was transitory, reflecting such special factors as the appreciation of the exchange value of the dollar, the largest share was almost certainly due to a decline in the underlying rate
of inflation. The reduced rate of inflation is a major step toward the
Administration's goals of full employment, healthy economic growth,
and price stability.
The progress made in reducing inflation, however, was accompanied by a painful slowdown of the economy. Beginning in July 1981,
the Nation suffered the second of two back-to-back recessions that
brought the unemployment rate to 10.8 percent in December 1982.
At that time, approximately 5 million more people were unemployed
than in January 1980, when the first of the two recessions began.
The increase in long-term unemployment poses a particularly
severe problem. In January 1980, about 550,000 people had been
unemployed for more than 6 months. In December 1982 there were
more than four times as many. Long-term unemployment is particularly serious in that it causes substantial financial hardship and is associated with a loss of job skills that may reduce future income significantly.
Some temporary decline in real economic activity was probably unavoidable in the process of reversing the upward trend of inflation.
The United States entered the 1980s with a high rate of inflation and
with widespread public expectations that the rate would remain high,
and perhaps increase. As high inflation persisted, it became embedded in the plans and contracts of firms and workers, and lowering it
involved a painful process. The decline of real GNP since early 1981
17
was in large part the price the United States paid for failing to control inflation in the late 1970s.
LEGACIES OF THE 1970s
In the 1960s, many economists believed that the Federal Government could keep unemployment down permanently by accepting a
higher rate of inflation. Steady rises in productivity and living standards were taken for granted. During the 1970s these views proved to
be incorrect. By the closing years of the 1970s, both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate were higher than they had been in
the 1960s, and the rate of productivity growth was lower.
Why did unemployment, productivity growth, and inflation all
worsen in the 1970s? These developments occurred in part because
of factors outside the government's control, such as changes in the
size and composition of the work force and rising world energy
prices. But the economy also suffered from long-standing government policies that exacerbated inflation and distorted the incentives
to work, save, and invest.
RISING UNEMPLOYMENT
Total employment grew rapidly in the 1970s but so did the rate of
unemployment. The civilian labor force participation rate rose from
60.4 percent of the population in 1970 to 63.8 percent in 1980. The
unemployment rate averaged 5.4 percent in the first half of the
1970s, greater than the 4.8 percent average of the 1960s. The recession of 1975 took the unemployment rate to a monthly high of 9.0
percent. Unemployment then declined to a monthly low of 5.6 percent in 1979, only to begin rising again to a peak of 7.8 percent in
July 1980.
In addition to cyclical fluctuations in the economy, a number of
structural factors contributed to the rise in the unemployment rate
over the decade. These included the changing demographic structure
of the labor force, the increased number of workers dislocated by
changes in technology and international competitiveness, and the
work registration requirements in a number of government welfare
programs.
A more detailed analysis of unemployment and the labor market
consequences of macroeconomic policy is presented in Chapter 2.
DECLINING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
From 1960 to 1970, real output per hour in the private sector rose
at an annual rate of 3.0 percent; from 1970 to 1980 it rose at a rate
of only 1.4 percent. Labor productivity growth would probably have
18
slowed somewhat in the 1970s regardless of the policies adopted.
The sharp increases in the price of oil caused by supply disruptions
in 1974 and 1979 reduced productivity growth as firms substituted
capital and labor for energy. Furthermore, as the post-World War II
baby-boom generation entered the labor force and the percentage of
working-age women seeking employment rose, the proportion of less
experienced workers increased, further depressing productivity.
The slowdown in productivity growth was, however, exacerbated
by a decline in rates of capital formation. Net investment in fixed
business capital fell from 3.5 percent of GNP in the 1960s to 3.0 percent in the 1970s, and the rate of growth of capital per worker fell
even more sharply, from 3.2 percent per year in the 1960s to only
1.3 percent in the 1970s. The interaction of the tax system with inflation played an important role in reducing the rate of capital formation.
Another cause of slow productivity growth was an increase in government regulation. In some sectors of the economy, Federal regulations directly reduced labor productivity; in others, they diverted capital investment away from the improvement of productivity into the
satisfaction of regulatory requirements. Some of these regulations
served useful purposes, but some imposed economic costs that exceeded their economic benefits.
The tax changes proposed by the Administration and enacted by
the Congress in 1981 and 1982 were designed to lead to faster
growth and higher productivity by stimulating saving, investment,
and individual effort. In addition, the Administration's policy of reducing government regulation is intended to enhance the efficiency
of individual markets and thereby increase total production.
RISING INFLATION
Of all the economic problems that this Administration inherited
when it came to office in 1981, the most urgent was the problem of
rising prices. Double-digit inflation had created serious economic distortions. An equally serious concern was that the trend rate of inflation was rising over time.
From 1960 to 1970, the GNP deflator rose at an average rate of
3.0 percent per year. Between 1970 and 1973, the average rate of inflation by this measure was 5.3 percent. Then, aggravated by the
sharp jump in world oil prices and other special factors, inflation
reached 10.2 percent during 1974, but by 1976 it was down to 4.7
percent. In the next 4 years, which included the second oil price
shock in 1979, inflation increased continually until it reached 10.2
percent again in 1980.
19
Over short periods of time a variety of factors influence the rate of
inflation. One important factor in the 1970s was supply-determined
changes in commodity prices resulting from fluctuations in harvests
and disruptions in the supply of foreign oil. Another important factor
was the increasing level of expected inflation. Once the expectation
of continuing inflation has become firmly entrenched, prices and
wages may continue to rise even in the face of declining demand, and
the cost of reducing inflation may increase.
These factors, however, only affect the rate of inflation for a limited time. The popular axiom that attributes inflation to "too much
money chasing too few goods" reflects a basic truth: it is difficult to
imagine a sustained inflation that is not supported by excessive
money growth. Over long periods of time, an additional percentage
point in the rate of growth of the money stock will tend to produce
an additional percentage point of growth of nominal GNP, that is,
GNP measured at current prices. If the rate of real GNP growth does
not change, the entire increase in nominal GNP growth will take the
form of increased inflation. Although the relations between money
growth, nominal GNP growth, and inflation are considerably more
variable over shorter periods than they are in the long run, the
impact of money growth on nominal income and inflation remains
powerful even in the short run.
THE RECESSION
The substantial decline in the rate of growth of the Ml measure of
money that occurred between the end of 1980 and the end of 1981
was a principal contributor to the decline in nominal income growth
in 1982, a decline compounded by a marked change in the velocity of
money. Part of the slowdown in nominal GNP growth took the form
of lower inflation, and part of it took the form of a decline in real
economic activity.
The adverse short-run effect of a slowdown in nominal GNP on
real economic activity is a basic feature of our economy that reflects
the stickiness of wages and prices in most markets. If prices and
wages were perfectly flexible, reduced nominal GNP growth would
translate immediately and painlessly into reduced inflation. However,
not all wages and prices are flexible. When expectations of future inflation are deeply embedded, prices and wages may continue to rise
for some time despite excess supplies of goods and labor. A change
in inflationary expectations, together with the direct pressures exerted by excess supplies, eventually causes prices and wages to adjust to
new market-clearing levels. But until that occurs a slowdown in nomi-
20
nal GNP growth is reflected in a slowing of real growth as well as in
a slowing of inflation.
The severity of the recession in 1982 reflected a combination of
circumstances which caused a very sharp decline in nominal GNP
growth between 1981 and 1982. Between the fourth quarter of 1980
and the fourth quarter of 1981, nominal GNP grew at a rate of 9.6
percent; in contrast, nominal GNP rose only 3.3 percent last year.
About one-third of the 6.3 percentage point drop in nominal GNP
growth between 1981 and 1982 was reflected in a 1.9 percentage
point decline in the real GNP growth rate—from an increase of 0.7
percent in 1981 to a decline of 1.2 percent in 1982. The reduction in
inflation accounted for the remaining two-thirds of the drop in nominal GNP.
Although some slowdown in nominal GNP growth and in inflation
in 1982 was a predictable effect of tighter monetary policies, the very
sharp decline actually experienced did not reflect a decrease in the
growth of the monetary aggregates. Rather the exceptional severity
of the slowdown in nominal GNP growth can be traced to a combination of factors that led to an unusually sharp decline in the velocity
of money, that is, in the ratio of GNP to the money stock.
THE DECLINE IN VELOCITY
The 1982 decline in the velocity of money—as measured by the velocity of either the Ml or M2 monetary aggregates—was historically
atypical. Between 1961 and 1981, Ml velocity rose at an average
annual rate of 3.2 percent, while the velocity of M2 remained essentially constant, rising at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent. In
contrast, in 1982 the velocity of Ml fell 4.9 percent and M2 velocity
fell 6.0 percent on a fourth quarter to fourth quarter basis. By either
measure, the growth of nominal GNP was well below the rate that
would have prevailed if the Ml or M2 measures of velocity had
grown at their average historic rates. These velocity declines were the
largest since 1959, the earliest year for which the Federal Reserve
has published data on the monetary aggregates under the definitions
currently in use.
If these velocity shifts had not occurred, the rise in nominal GNP
in 1982 would have been between 10 and 12 percent. While it is uncertain how this hypothetical change would have been distributed between real activity and inflation, it is likely that real GNP would have
increased enough to have ended the recession sometime before the
final quarter of 1982.
Although the cause of the large velocity shift that occurred in 1982
is not fully understood, it is likely that major changes in asset demands of individuals and businesses played an important role. More
21
precisely, an increase in the demand for Ml or M2 at any income
level decreases the corresponding velocity of money. Such shifts may
occur because of regulatory changes that provide new financial opportunities—like the introduction of nationwide interest-bearing negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts—or because of
changes in asset preferences—like the increased demand for money
market mutual funds instead of long-term securities.
The uncertain cause of the recent decline in velocity is characteristic of the problems that the Federal Reserve has encountered in applying the new monetary control procedures that it adopted in October 1979. Changes in banking regulations and the development of
new financial instruments by the private sector have compelled the
Federal Reserve to make frequent revisions to the definitions of the
monetary aggregates and reassessments of their economic impacts. In
1980 a complete revision of the definitions of the monetary aggregates was introduced. In the next year, a "shift adjusted" Ml-B was
defined in an effort to adjust for shifts from savings deposits to
NOW accounts. Most recently, in 1982 and early 1983, definitional
changes in Ml and M2 were required to deal with the advent of the
new money market deposit account—which was added to M2—and
the new super NOW account—which was added to Ml.
The Federal Reserve was aware throughout 1981 and 1982 that the
relationship between the monetary aggregates and economic activity
was in a state of flux, and that future velocity trends were uncertain.
While sustained but unanticipated shifts in velocity growth can be
identified in hindsight, it is nearly impossible to know at the time
they occur whether unusual quarter-to-quarter changes in velocity
will continue or reverse themselves. The presumption, on the basis
of past experience, is that most velocity changes are temporary.
Thus, increasing the rate of money growth in response to temporary
declines in velocity runs the risk of providing excessive liquidity and
increasing inflation, while a failure to recognize a continuing shift in
liquidity preference or velocity runs the risk of providing inadequate
liquidity and reducing real GNP. Given the circumstances of 1982,
the somewhat greater growth in the monetary aggregates than initially intended by the Federal Reserve appeared to be an appropriate
way to balance those risks.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
The Administration believes that the American economy will soon
recover from the recession that began in July 1981. The forecast presented in Chapter 6 projects that economic recovery will begin in
1983, marking the start of a long period of sustained growth with low
22
inflation. More specifically, the Administration forecasts that real
GNP will rise 3.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 1982 to the
fourth quarter of 1983, and that nominal GNP will rise 8.8 percent.
Realization of the economic forecast and steady noninflationary
growth in subsequent years will depend upon the implementation of
appropriate monetary and fiscal policies.
IMPLEMENTING A STABLE MONETARY POLICY
The Administration has repeatedly indicated that the fundamental
guiding principle of monetary policy in an inflationary economy
should be a gradual reduction in the rate of growth of the money
stock until the rate is consistent with price stability. This principle is
consistent with the general approach enunciated in recent years by
the independent Federal Reserve.
The basic challenge for monetary policy at present is to balance
the principle of stable money growth with the need to take account
of changing asset preferences that may alter the velocity of money.
While maintaining the approach of setting specified target ranges for
money growth, the Federal Reserve will also need to use its judgment to adjust money growth rates and the corresponding targets to
reflect lasting changes in asset demands.
The extent to which a policy of predetermined money growth rates
is appropriate depends on the stability and predictability of the velocity of money. Strictly speaking, inflexible monetary growth rates are
appropriate only if the trend in income velocity is constant or has
purely random disturbances. The advisability of a strict policy rule
depends on the degree of predictability of velocity disturbances. The
more predictable velocity disturbances are, the more they can be
offset by countervailing shifts in the money stock. The less predictable they are, the more likely it is that any attempt at countervailing
shifts in the money stock will add to the overall volatility of nominal
GNP.
The task of making appropriate adjustments to the monetary targets is enormously difficult. An excessive increase in the money stock
will cause a period of increased inflation while an insufficient increase in the money stock will not provide adequate liquidity for the
needs of an expanding economy. Eventually such deviations are selfcorrecting, but only after a period of accelerating inflation or weak
economic performance.
One possible way to avoid such periods is to use the obseryed behavior of nominal GNP to guide a gradual recalibration of the monetary growth targets, recognizing that there are uncertain lags between
money stock changes and the resulting changes in nominal GNP.
Basing the recalibration of monetary targets on nominal GNP is con-
23
sistent with the basic principle of pursuing a stable monetary policy.
Indeed, it is the relatively stable long-run relationship between the
monetary aggregates and nominal GNP that justifies the Federal Reserve's policy of setting targets for the growth of Ml and M2. This
implies that caution in revising these targets is appropriate. The principle of targeting money growth rates is not an end in itself but only
a means of achieving control of nominal GNP.
Disadvantages of Interest Rate Targeting
From World War II until the mid-1970s the Federal Reserve, like
most central banks, conducted monetary policy by focusing on interest rates and money market conditions. Over the 1970s, increasing
emphasis was given to targeting monetary aggregates. More recently,
under new procedures first adopted in October 1979, the Federal
Reserve has given greater emphasis to keeping the growth of the
monetary aggregates within pre-announced target ranges, even
though it was recognized that this could result in greater variations in
interest rates.
Since 1979 both long-term and short-term interest rates have
proven more variable than in the past. Many critics attribute this
change to the increased emphasis on monetary targets and the level
of bank reserves as the operational basis for monetary policy. Although some have argued that the Federal Reserve should drop
monetary targeting in favor of targeting interest rates, the Administration believes strongly that targeting interest rates, either nominal
or real, would prove to be a serious error.
The nominal rate of interest is a very unreliable indicator of the
thrust of monetary policy. The financial variable important to borrowers and lenders is not the nominal interest rate but a real interest
rate determined by subtracting the rate of inflation from the nominal
interest rate. Borrowers and lenders take into account the fact that
the dollars repaid when a loan matures do not have the same purchasing power as the dollars originally borrowed. When inflation is
expected, lenders insist that the nominal rate of interest include a
premium to compensate them for the declining purchasing power of
the dollar, and borrowers are willing to pay such a premium.
Although the real interest rate is more closely linked to borrowing
and lending decisions than the nominal interest rate, the real interest
rate is also not an appropriate target for monetary policy. There are
several basic reasons for rejecting the policy of real interest rate targeting.
First, real interest rate targeting might well lead to an inflationary
monetary policy. Any given real interest rate is compatible with a
wide range of inflation rates. For example, a real interest rate of 2
percent could occur with a 5 percent nominal rate and a 3 percent
24
inflation rate, or with a 12 percent nominal rate and a 10 percent inflation rate. Thus, achieving a real interest rate target would provide
no assurance of price stability.
Second, the real interest rate that governs economic behavior is
the difference between the nominal interest rate and the expected rate
of inflation. Since expectations of inflation are not observable, the
monetary authorities cannot as a practical matter measure or target
the expected real interest rate.
A third reason why real interest rate targeting is not feasible is that
the relevant interest rate is not merely the real rate but the real netof-tax interest rate. Because net-of-tax rates of interest vary among
individuals and businesses in different tax positions, there is no way
for the monetary authorities to determine the relevant average real
net-of-tax interest rate in financial markets. Compounding the problem further, different rates of inflation can result in very different
net-of-tax real interest rates corresponding to the same pretax real
interest rate, even for a particular taxpayer. For example, a taxpayer
with a marginal tax rate of 40 percent earns a real net-of-tax return
of 1 percent if he receives a nominal rate of 10 percent and there is 5
percent inflation; that same taxpayer earns a real net-of-tax return of
— 2 percent if he receives the same real return of 5 percent but there
is zero inflation. Similarly, the real interest rate and the real net-oftax interest rate can easily move in opposite directions when the inflation rate changes.
There is a final and even more fundamental reason for rejecting
real interest rate targeting. Even if the expected real interest rate
were measurable, there would remain the virtually impossible task of
determining what level of that interest rate is actually compatible
with noninflationary growth. The problem of identifying the equilibrium interest rate is made even more difficult by the interaction of
tax rules and inflation.
Monetary Rules and Discretion
There is no simple solution to the problem of guiding monetary
policy in a time of rapid institutional change. Interest rate targeting,
as shown above, is not a desirable approach. Instead, the monetary
authorities should be guided by the principle of keeping money
growth within a prespecified target range while adjusting those targets when a careful consideration of the evidence indicates that sustained shifts in asset demands have occurred.
The combination of monetary rules and discretion must be applied
with great care and judgment. The observance of rules must not
become a doctrinaire attachment to arbitrary standards, and the exercise of discretion must not degenerate into unprincipled fine tuning.
Instead, the monetary rules must be understood as a way of achiev-
25
ing an appropriate long-run path for the economy. The exercise of
discretion in recalibrating monetary targets must be subject to the
discipline that such revisions are ultimately compatible with the desired long-run path of nominal GNP. With rules and discretion balanced in this way, monetary policy can support a sound recovery that
leads to sustained and noninflationary growth.
THE BUDGET DEFICIT
The Federal budget deficit has become a major problem for the
American economy. Without the savings proposed by the Administration in its budget plan for the years 1984 through 1988, the United
States is forecasted to experience a series of deficits that would consume more than 6 percent of GNP in each of the next 6 years. Although budget deficits have been a nearly constant feature of our Nation's economic life for the past two decades, the prospective budget
deficits that would result if no legislative actions were taken to
reduce them would be far larger than those previously experienced
in the postwar period. The economic effects of such deficits are
beyond our previous experience.
The fiscal 1983 deficit is partially a result of the recession. Any recession reduces tax collections and increases outlays for unemployment benefits, retirement benefits, and certain other activities. A reasonable approximation is that the change in economic output associated with a percentage point change in the unemployment rate would
raise the fiscal 1983 deficit by about $25 billion. The Administration
forecasts that the unemployment rate for fiscal 1983 will average 10.7
percent. If the unemployment rate were 6.5 percent instead, the
budget deficit would be about half the $208 billion now forecast for
fiscal 1983. The cyclical component represents a similarly large share
of the fiscal 1984 deficit.
Economic recovery and growth in the years ahead will reduce the
cyclical component of the deficit. The Administration's forecast projects a decline in the unemployment rate by 4 percentage points between fiscal 1983 and fiscal 1988, leaving only a negligible cyclical
component in the fiscal 1988 budget. Unless the Administration's
proposals are enacted, a current services budget deficit of $300 billion is forecasted to materialize.
To see the origin of these large deficits, it is useful to compare the
components of the 1988 current services budget with the same components for 1970. Between those years, taxes decline very slightly as
a percentage of GNP, from 19.9 percent in 1970 to 18.9 percent in
1988. The defense share of GNP remains unchanged at 8.1 percent
of GNP in both years. By contrast, nondefense activities excluding interest rise from 10.6 percent of GNP in 1970 to 13.6 percent in
26
1988, an increase of about one-fourth. In addition, the accumulation
of previous deficits raise the net interest component of the budget
deficit from 1.5 percent of GNP to 3.4 percent of GNP.
Deficits and Long-Term Growth
A succession of large budget deficits is likely to reduce substantially the rate of capital formation. The government's borrowing to finance such deficits would compete directly with borrowing by private
businesses and households. With a limited amount of savings available for borrowing, high budget deficits would cause interest rates to
rise until private demand for funds was reduced to the amount that
remained after the government's borrowing needs were satisfied.
The magnitude of the potential crowding out of private investment
is immense. During the past two decades, the net saving of households and businesses totaled only about 7 percent of GNP. Prospective deficits of more than 6 percent of GNP would represent virtually
all of current net saving. Even though existing saving would be augmented by borrowing from abroad and by some increase in the private saving rate, the reduced rate of capital formation would be very
substantial.
A lower rate of capital formation would have adverse consequences
because the accumulation of capital is a key determinant of future increases in productivity and economic growth and therefore of higher
real wages and standards of living. Further reductions in the rate of
capital formation would be particularly unfortunate because, as Chapter 4 discusses in detail, the U.S. rate of capital formation has been
undesirably low for several decades. In the years since 1960, net private investment has averaged only 6 percent of GNP, significantly
less than the rate in most major industrial countries. Moreover, since
half of this 6 percent has gone into housing, only about 3 percent of
GNP has been available for productivity-increasing investments in
plant and equipment. Deficits of the level implied by the current
services budget could reduce the rate of net investment in plant and
equipment enough to preclude any increase in the amount of capital
per worker. If this occurred, the process of increasing capital intensity would cease to contribute to rising productivity and real wages.
Deficits and the Recovery
The adverse effects of large budget deficits are not limited to the
distant future. The deficits that would occur without the budget actions proposed by the Administration could seriously affect the
degree to which various economic sectors share in the benefits of recovery from the current recession. The crowding out of private investment which would accompany large deficits could depress the
level of output in the construction industries, the steel industry, the
27
machinery and equipment industries, and industries that produce
other durable goods.
In addition, large budget deficits raise the exchange value of the
dollar relative to foreign currencies by attracting foreign capital to
the United States. This weakens the competitive position of U.S. exports in the world economy and hurts those domestic industries that
compete with imports from abroad. The nature and magnitude of
this effect are discussed in Chapter 3 of this Report.
A "lopsided" recovery in which some sectors remained relatively
depressed might prove more fragile than a recovery which was
broadly based. An increase in economic activity limited to some sectors and regions might result in greater upward pressure on prices
and wages at any given level of total output and employment than
would be the case if there were balanced expansion among industries. In addition, an unbalanced recovery would produce more inflation and less real growth, regardless of the rate of expansion of
nominal GNP.
The prospect of large budget deficits in the second half of this
decade may also have an adverse effect on the prospects for recovery
in 1983. If the financial markets respond to expected future deficits
by keeping real long-term interest rates higher in 1983 than they
would otherwise be, the level of spending in 1983 on interest-sensitive purchases may remain depressed. Clear evidence of the willingness of the Administration and the Congress to reduce Federal
budget deficits substantially in the second half of the 1980s can play
an important part in ensuring a healthy and balanced economic recovery in the more immediate future.
28
CHAPTER 2
The Dual Problems of Structural and
Cyclical Unemployment
UNEMPLOYMENT IS THE MOST SERIOUS ECONOMIC
PROBLEM now facing the United States. By December 1982 the
number of unemployed had risen by more than 4 million since the
beginning of the recession in July 1981. The unemployment rate was
higher in December 1982 than at any point since the Depression,
with over 12 million persons counted as unemployed. Even after the
economy recovers from the recent recession, it is likely that the unemployment rate will reach a plateau between 6 and 7 percent.
This chapter analyzes the two major types of unemployment: cyclical and structural. The high level of cyclical unemployment now prevailing in the United States is a major problem, but it should prove
transitory. Only a healthy and sustained recovery from the recent recession can effectively diminish cyclical unemployment. Even after
full recovery, however, a serious structural unemployment problem
will remain unless measures are taken to improve the functioning of
labor markets. Reducing structural unemployment will require attacking the special problems of young people and the long-term adult
unemployed.
This chapter begins by describing the dimensions of the cyclical
and structural unemployment problems. It then examines the potential of public employment programs and macroeconomic policies to
lower cyclical unemployment. Finally, policies for reducing structural
unemployment are considered.
THE RECENT RECESSION
The unemployment rate in December 1982 stood at 10.8 percent
of the civilian labor force. Since the recent period of economic slack that
began in January 1980, the unemployment rate has risen by 4.5 percentage points. During the recent recession, which began in July
1981, the unemployment rate rose by 3.6 percentage points.
Historical experience suggests that the unemployment rate tends to
increase for several months after the level of production bottoms out
29
and it is possible that the unemployment rate will reach 11 percent at
some point during 1983.
Beyond those officially counted as unemployed, the recent recession has prevented many Americans from working as much as they
would like. In December 1982 there were over two million persons
involuntarily working part time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also
reported that there were over 1.8 million discouraged workers in December. These are individuals who have given up looking for work
because they believe they cannot find jobs.
Unemployment is often linked to economic hardship. While many
of the unemployed receive unemployment insurance and live in families that have other members who work, many unemployed individuals and their families suffer economic distress. Table 2-1 presents
information on the incomes of families in which the husband, wife, or
head of household experienced unemployment during 1981. (Data
for 1982 are not yet available.) Three types of families are distinguished: (1) families in which both husband and wife worked, (2)
families in which only the husband or male head worked, and (3)
families in which only the wife or female head worked. For all of the
family types, unemployment experienced by husband, wife, or head
of household significantly lowered median family income. For example, single-earner families in which the husband (or male head) was
never unemployed had a median income in 1981 of $25,000. In contrast, the median income of similar families in which the male head
experienced 1 to 26 weeks of unemployment was $16,500. Families
in which the male head was unemployed for more than 26 weeks had
a median family income of $10,200.
TABLE 2-1.—Median family income by unemployment and family status, 1981 (current dollars)
Unemployment status of husband, wife,
or head of household
Family status
Person
never
unemployed
Husband and wife both work
Person
unemployed
less than
Person
unemployed
more than
26 weeks
26 weeks
$31,600
$23,000
$17,900
Only husband or male head works..
25,000
16,500
10,200
Only wife or female head works
18,900
15,200
11,200
Source.- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The financial losses of the unemployed are not the only costs of a
prolonged economic decline. Considerable anxiety and emotional
distress is experienced by those who have lost their jobs or who fear
that they might lose their jobs in an economy with a declining
number of employment opportunities. Protracted unemployment is
30
frequently associated with poor heafyh, psychological problems, and
gradual erosion of job-related skills.
THE COMPOSITION OF CYCLICAL AND STRUCTURAL
UNEMPLOYMENT
The unemployment problem can be divided into two components,
cyclical and structural unemployment. The term cyclical unemployment
is used to refer to the unemployment associated with cyclical downturns in aggregate economic activity. The incremental unemployment
associated with the recent recession would fall into this category. The
term structural unemployment is used to refer to the unemployment that
remains even after cyclical recoveries in aggregate economic activity.
In large part, structural unemployment is a natural concomitant of
a dynamic economy with constantly changing patterns of demand.
Labor markets are in constant flux, with people entering and leaving
the labor force, losing or quitting old jobs, and looking for and acquiring new jobs. Some amount of structural unemployment is an
inevitable aspect of a large modern industrial economy such as ours. It
is important to realize that although expansionary macroeconomic
policies cannot reduce structural unemployment permanently, certain
microeconomic policy interventions can affect the ease and speed of
the process that matches workers with jobs.
Some insight into the differences between cyclical and structural
unemployment can be obtained by comparing the characteristics of
the unemployed in 1982 and in a period of low cyclical unemployment. Since the unemployment rate in 1978 was 6.1 percent, close to
most observers' estimates of full employment, data from that year
will be used to illustrate the characteristics of structural unemployment. The next two sections examine the composition of the unemployed population in 1978 and 1982 in terms of demographic composition and reasons for unemployment. A third section analyzes the
dynamics of unemployment.
DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION
Chart 2-1 provides information on the demographic composition
of the unemployed population in 1978 and in 1982. The chart shows
that young people under age 24 account for a substantial fraction of
unemployment both when the economy is weak and when it is
strong. Persons under 24 accounted for 49 percent of total unemployment during 1978 and 41 percent of unemployment in 1982.
The decline in the share of youth unemployment reflected the large
increase in unemployment among adult males in cyclically sensitive
sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing.
31
Chart 2 - 1
Distribution of Unemployment by Age and Sex
ADULT MALES
25 AND OVER
25.2%
ADULT MALES
25 AND OVER
34.5%
ADULT FEMALES,
25 AND OVER
24.6%
1982
1978
NOTE.—DATA RELATE TO PERSONS 16 YEARS AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
A pattern that appears in Chart 2-2 is the cyclical sensitivity of unemployment among those who provide the primary financial support
for a family. The share of unemployment among husbands, wives,
and family heads in families without a working spouse rose from 20
percent in 1978 to 24 percent in 1982. Because unemployment undoubtedly imposes its greatest hardship when it hits a worker upon
whom others depend for their sole support, this increase is particularly distressing.
A continuing tragedy in both good and bad times is the very high
rates of unemployment of blacks and other minorities. This group accounts for a share of unemployment that is greatly disproportionate
to its share of the labor force. While blacks and other minorities
comprised 13 percent of the labor force in 1982, they comprised approximately 23 percent of the unemployed. Chart 2-3, shows that the
recent recession raised the unemployment rate of blacks and other
minorities proportionally less than that of the rest of the population.
However, black and other minority unemployment rates increased
sharply during the recession and continue to greatly exceed those of
the entire population. The unemployment rate for black and other
minority adult males was 16.2 percent in 1982, compared to 7.8 percent for white males. For black and other minority teenagers the unemployment rate was 43.9 percent, compared to 20.4 percent for
white teenagers.
32
Chart 2-2
Distribution of Unemployment by Family Status
HUSBANDS,
SPOUSE WORKING
7.8%
HUSBANDS.
SPOUSE WORKING
11.5%
1978
1982
'HUSBANDS AND WIVES WHOSE SPOUSE DOES NOT WORK AND PERSONS WHO MAINTAIN
FAMILIES.
NOTE.^DATA RELATE TO PERSONS 16 YEARS AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
REASONS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
Analyzing the problem of unemployment requires understanding
the process by which people become unemployed. The unemployed
are often described in stereotyped terms as the victims of permanent
layoffs by firms that are either partially or fully shutting down. Even
during the recent recession, however, this characterization applied to
less than half of the unemployed.
As part of the monthly Current Population Survey, the unemployed are asked a number of questions designed to elicit the reasons
for their unemployment. The answers to these questions permit a
breakdown of the unemployed into five groups: (1) persons laid off
who can expect to return to the same job; (2) persons who have lost
jobs to which they cannot expect to return; (3) persons who have
quit their jobs; (4) reentrants who are returning to the labor force
after a spell of neither working nor looking for work; and (5) new
entrants who have never worked at a full-time job before but are now
seeking employment.
Chart 2-4 shows that the distribution of the unemployed among
these categories is very sensitive to cyclical conditions. The share of
persons who have lost their jobs, either temporarily or permanently,
33
Chart 2-3
Distribution of Unemployment by Race
1978
1982
NOTE.—DATA RELATE TO PERSONS 16 YEARS AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
is particularly sensitive, rising from 42 percent in 1978 to 59 percent
in 1982. Over this period the number of job losers on temporary
layoff tripled and the number of permanent job losers more than
doubled. The decline in alternative employment opportunities resulted in a decline in the share of unemployment traceable to workers
leaving their jobs voluntarily during the recession—from 14 percent
in 1978 to 8 percent in 1982. Finally, because the number of labor
force entrants and reentrants is relatively constant, their share in
total unemployment declined somewhat during the recession.
The data on reasons for unemployment indicate a major difference
between cyclical and structural unemployment. Almost 90 percent of
the increase in unemployment during cyclical downturns involves increases in job losses and layoffs, as firms respond to declines in
demand for their products. On the other hand, almost 60 percent of
structural unemployment is comprised of voluntary job leavers, labor
force entrants, and reentrants. The remainder are job losers. As described below, the very different causes of cyclical and structural unemployment suggest that different policy responses are appropriate.
34
Chart 2-4
Distribution of Unemployment By Reason
1978
1982
NOTE.—DATA RELATE TO PERSONS 16 YEARS AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
THE DYNAMICS OF UNEMPLOYMENT
An essential feature of the unemployment problem is its dynamic
character. The appropriate design of policies to reduce unemployment depends on whether most of the unemployed are out of work
for a long time and must wait for an economic upturn to find jobs or
whether they are a group whose membership changes rapidly, even
during recessions.
The principal source of information on the duration of unemployment is the monthly Current Population Survey, which asks persons
who report themselves as unemployed to report how long they have
been unemployed. Chart 2-5 presents information on the duration of
unemployment in 1978 and 1982. The clearest difference between
cyclical and structural unemployment emerges in the incidence of
long-term unemployment. In 1982 the number of unemployed individuals who reported that they had been out of work for 6 or more
months was almost three times the corresponding number in 1978,
when the economy was operating without significant cyclical unemployment.
While the incidence of long-term unemployment increases sharply
during recessions, it is important to recognize that many of the un-
35
Chart 2-5
Distribution of Unemployment by Duration
1978
1982
NOTE.—DATA RELATE TO PERSONS 16 YEARS AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
employed find jobs or withdraw from the labor force relatively quickly. Of all the persons who became unemployed in September 1982,
over 45 percent were no longer unemployed by October, and over
65 percent were no longer unemployed by November. However, evidence on the duration of unemployment is not purely indicative of
the ease or difficulty with which persons find jobs since almost half
the unemployed leave the labor force without finding jobs.
While most persons who become unemployed look for work only
briefly, this group does not comprise a large part of the unemployment problem. It is long-term unemployment that is of special concern. A recent study found that in 1978, more than 40 percent of
total unemployment was due to the 15 percent of the unemployed
population who were out of work a total of 6 months or longer
during the year. This concentration of long-term unemployment
among a relatively small group of the unemployed is particularly pronounced during cyclical downturns. Data on this subject are not yet
available for 1982. During 1975, however, when the unemployment
rate was 8.5 percent, an estimated 52 percent of unemployment was
due to the 22 percent of the unemployed population who were out of
work more than 6 months.
36
These findings suggest several conclusions. First, even during recessions, most persons who become unemployed either find jobs or
leave the labor force relatively quickly. Second, the unemployment
problem is most serious for those who are unemployed for prolonged stretches. Third, the incidence of long-term unemployment is
very sensitive to cyclical conditions, which suggests that it will diminish as the economy recovers. Even after a recovery is well underway,
however, a sizable fraction of total unemployment will involve protracted joblessness. The needs of the long-term unemployed deserve
special recognition in the designing of policies to attack structural
unemployment.
COMBATING CYCLICAL UNEMPLOYMENT
High rates of cyclical unemployment, which the American economy
is now experiencing, are largely a consequence of fluctuations in aggregate demand caused by macroeconomic policies and shocks to the
economy. As described in Chapter 1, the historical experience of the
United States and other countries suggests that disinflation is generally associated with lost output and increased unemployment. During
periods of disinflation and recession, the measures available to
reduce the pain of the transition from accelerating inflation to price
stability are limited. Greater fiscal or monetary stimulus might increase employment, but only at the risk of igniting inflation. Chapter
1 describes the principles that the Administration feels govern sound
macroeconomic policies.
THE LIMITS OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY
The only way to reduce current high levels of cyclical unemployment is for the United States to achieve a sound recovery from the
recent recession. Avoiding future recurrences of high cyclical unemployment requires avoiding an expansion so rapid as to lead to rapidly increasing inflation. Historical experience suggests that the change
in the rate of inflation depends both on the rate at which economic
activity is expanding and on the level of economic slack. If the slack
in the economy declines too rapidly, or capacity utilization is held at
too high a level, inflation will tend to increase. The lower limit on
unemployment below which inflation will tend to increase is referred
to as the inflation threshold unemployment rate.
While it is not easy to pinpoint the inflation threshold unemployment rate precisely, it probably lies between 6 and 7 percent. Econometric studies of historical data suggest that when unemployment is
close to 6 percent, the rate of inflation tends to accelerate. For example, during 1978 when the unemployment rate was 6.1 percent, infla-
37
tion as measured by percentage changes in the gross national product (GNP) deflator rose to 7.4 percent from 5.8 percent in 1977. An
even larger increase occurred in 1979 when the unemployment rate
averaged 5.8 percent.
The Effect of Demographic Factors
There are a number of reasons to believe that the inflation threshold unemployment rate increased during the 1960s and 1970s. Many
economists believe that demographic factors may have contributed to
the increase. Persons with little labor market experience tend to have
high rates of unemployment as they move from job to job in an
effort to obtain a desirable career position. In the last 15 years, the
children of the baby boom have reached maturity thus raising substantially the share of inexperienced workers in the labor force. In
addition, women with little recent labor market experience have entered the labor force at an unprecedented rate during the last 15
years. It has been estimated that if the labor force had the same demographic composition today as it had in 1958, the unemployment
rate would have been about three-quarters of a percentage point
lower in 1982. The share of young people in the labor force will decline sharply over the next decade due to a dramatic reduction in the
birth rate throughout the late 1960s and the 1970s. This provides
grounds for cautious optimism that the inflation threshold unemployment rate will decline.
Social Insurance Programs
Other factors which have increased the inflation threshold unemployment rate in recent years are less likely to be reversed in the
next decade. These include the effects of social programs. While providing important financial support to their recipients, these programs
also have both behavioral and reporting effects on the measured unemployment rate.
Behavioral effects of social insurance programs such as unemployment insurance include the encouragement of firms to lay off workers and the inducement of persons to prolong their spells of unemployment. These effects are discussed in more detail below. Reporting effects occur when programs induce persons to change reporting
of their labor force status, without changing their behavior. For example, some experts believe that the Federal Supplemental Benefits
program instituted during the 1975 recession caused persons who
otherwise would have withdrawn from the labor force to report that
they were unemployed because of job search requirements. There is
some evidence to suggest that the work registration requirements in
the food stamp and AFDC programs have had a similar effect.
38
Wage Rigidity
A number of studies show that wages and prices are much more
rigid now than prior to World War II, and that rigidity has increased
within the post-War period. Increased wage rigidity is likely to raise
the economy's inflation threshold level of unemployment, since less
flexible wages increase the inevitable unemployment associated with
the sectoral shocks which buffet the economy.
The reasons for this change are not well understood. A side effect
of the provision of a "safety net" program is that employees may
become more resistant to wage reductions, leading to increases in
wage and price rigidity. To the extent that the two-earner family is a
form of private "safety net" against the financial losses of unemployment, the recent growth in the number of two-earner families may
also have contributed to increasing wage rigidity in the United States
over time.
Increasing Structural Change
A final factor that may have contributed to a rising inflation threshold unemployment rate is the increasing rapidity of structural change
in the economy. This acceleration, which is in part caused by the
economy's increasing sensitivity to events in the world economy, is
evidenced by increasing dispersion across industries and localities in
rates of unemployment. Because transfers of human and physical resources are costly and take time, increased unemployment is a concomitant of structural change.
While the separate impacts of these factors—changing demographic composition, larger social insurance programs, increased wage rigidity, and increased structural change—are difficult to quantify, it is
reasonable to conclude that together they may have significantly increased the inflation threshold unemployment rate. Expansionary macroeconomic policies are unlikely to reverse the effects of these
changes.
PUBLIC WORKS EMPLOYMENT PROGRAMS
Direct provision of public works jobs by the government is a politically popular response to cyclical unemployment during recessions.
Available evidence suggests, however, that public works programs
adopted in past recessions proved counterproductive, and that the inherent capability of public works programs to combat cyclical unemployment is limited.
The Timing of Public Works Expenditures
Public employment programs that produce useful goods or services
generally take time to plan and implement. Therefore, such programs often have their greatest effects on public employment long
39
after an economic recovery has begun. For this reason, public employment programs have sometimes exacerbated rather than mitigated cyclical fluctuations in aggregate demand. A study of the Accelerated Public Works program enacted in September 1962 by the Congress to combat the high unemployment rate of the early 1960s
found that the number of jobs created by the program peaked in
June 1964, 37 months after the bottom of the recession. More recent
experience also confirms that lags in implementation are long. A
recent study by the Office of Management and Budget found that 90
percent of the outlays for local public works projects designed to
stimulate recovery from the 1974-75 recession occurred more than
2J6 years after the trough of the recession. The lags in implementing
public works programs result in their having destabilizing effects,
since a large share of the resulting spending occurs during periods of
economic expansion.
The Effect of Federal Funding of Public Works on State Expenditures
Even when spending for these programs begins immediately after
they are enacted, many public works projects do not yield a net increase in employment. Because of the long planning and implementation lags, most of the projects available for immediate funding are
those that were planned before the recession began. Thus, Federal
expenditures on these projects often substitute for outlays that would
have taken place anyway.
A major effect of Federal public works expenditures may be to
alter the timing of public works projects. The expectation of new
public works programs may induce State and local governments to
delay making outlays during the early stages of economic downturns
in the hope that they will receive Federal funds for projects they have
"on the shelf/' The importance of this possibility is suggested by experiences with the Local Public Works Capital Development and Investment Act of 1976 and the Public Works Employment Act of
1977, programs intended to spur recovery from the 1975 recession.
Three characteristics of these programs may have created incentives
for local governments to delay their own discretionary spending until
they could see whether the Federal Government would pay their
entire bill: (1) projects were financed fully by the Federal Government; (2) grants were limited to quick-starting projects; and (3) there
was considerable uncertainty and lengthy delays in the process of
awarding money to State and local governments. One study found
that State and local public works expenditures fell substantially in
mid-1976 and decreased further between 1976 and 1977. It suggested that this may have occurred because States and local governments
delayed projects in anticipation of funds becoming available under
the 1976 and 1977 public works programs. The study also suggested
40
that these measures may have caused the postponement of as much
as $22 billion in total government spending.
Crowding Out of Private Sector Employment
Another reason for discounting the efficacy of public works measures is their adverse side effects on private employment. If public
works outlays are financed by additional taxes, the income and
spending of consumers are reduced, decreasing the number of jobs
in the private economy. Alternatively, insofar as public works outlays
are financed by borrowing from the public, interest rates are raised,
crowding out some forms of private spending and reducing private
employment. The higher interest rates resulting from increased Federal borrowing also discourage capital investments that help create
future employment.
Benefits to Workers
An additional reason to discount the efficacy of accelerated public
works projects is their limited value to participants. Most jobs in
countercyclical public works projects are of extremely short duration
and are unlikely to provide participants with lasting job skills. Under
the Public Works Impact Program, initiated in fiscal year 1972, the
average duration of employment amounted to only 4.1 weeks. Almost
60 percent of all employees worked 2 weeks or less. Data for the
local public works programs initiated in 1976 and 1977 and described above, indicate that the average job lasted only 3.5 weeks.
Although public works programs are motivated by a desire to provide jobs for the unemployed, very few jobs are actually filled by unemployed workers. Under the Public Works Impact Program, only 27
percent of all jobs were filled by the previously unemployed. Under
the more recent public works programs of 1976 and 1977, it has
been estimated that only 12 percent of all jobs were filled by previously unemployed workers.
COMBATING STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
The preceding analysis suggests that it would be imprudent to use
macroeconomic policies to reduce the unemployment rate below its
inflation threshold level of 6 to 7 percent. Such an effort would increase inflation, and ultimately prove counterproductive as increased
inflation was followed by recession. This does not mean that unemployment rates in the 6 to 7 percent range are either inevitable or
desirable. The inflation threshold level of unemployment can be reduced by policies that consider the special problems of two groups of
workers: (1) young people, and (2) adults experiencing long-term unemployment. It can also be reduced by reforms of the unemployment
41
insurance system, which, while providing valuable insurance, may increase the incidence of unemployment.
THE PROBLEM OF YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
At times of low cyclical unemployment, about half the unemployed
are young people between the ages of 16 and 24. Close to one-fourth
of all the unemployed are teenagers aged 16 to 19. While unemployment clearly imposes hardships on youths, it has very different economic impacts than it does for adults. Many unemployed youths are
in school and looking for part-time work. Most of this group, and
many other young people who have left school, are not economically
independent, but rather live at home and rely on their parents for
financial support. Many other young people experience only brief periods of unemployment as they move from one job to the next.
Table 2-2 provides information on the labor market activities of
young men and women aged 16 to 19 in October 1981, when the
teenage unemployment rate was 24.1 percent. Data for 1982 are not
yet available. As the table reveals, only 5 percent of all teenagers
were out of school and measured as unemployed (because they were
looking for work). A striking feature of the youth labor market is the
large fraction of young people who are out of school but are neither
working nor looking for work. Over 30 percent of female and 14 percent of male out-of-school teenagers were not in the labor force. The
factors underlying this labor force withdrawal by young people are
not well understood. In some cases, young people may withdraw
from the labor force because they are discouraged about their prospects for finding suitable employment. In other cases, labor force
withdrawal may reflect a desire for leisure.
The observations about the dynamic character of unemployment
made elsewhere in this chapter are especially true of young people.
TABLE 2-2.—Educational and labor market activities of youth aged 16 to 19, by sex, October 1981
Item
Number
(thousands)
Percent of
subgroup
Percent of
population
Number
(thousands)
100.0
8,059
Males
Total population
Enrolled in school..,
5,683
100.0
70.7
5,526
Employed
Unemployed
Not in labor force
Unemployment rate (percent)..
2,024
424
3,235
17.3
35.6
25.2
56.9
40.3
1,829
429
3,268
19.0
Not enrolled in school
Employed
Unemployed
Not in labor force
Unemployment rate (percent)..
2,353
1,585
434
334
21.5
100.0
67.4
18.4
14.2
29.3
19.7
7.5
42
Percent of
population
Females
8,036
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Percent of
subgroup
5.3
5.4
4.2
2,533
1,340
417
776
23.7
100.0
100.0
33.1
7.8
59.1
100.0
52.9
16.5
30.6
68.6
22.7
5.3
40.6
31.4
16.6
5.2
9.6
Most young people find jobs or leave the labor force fairly quickly. It
was recently estimated that of those male teenagers who become unemployed in a given month only 42 percent remain unemployed in
the next month.
Youth unemployment is nevertheless a critical economic problem.
A large part of the youth unemployment problem is traceable to the
small group of teenagers who experience extensive unemployment.
More than 52 percent of all unemployment experienced by teenage
males aged 16 to 19 in 1981 was due to the 4.4 percent of the male
teenage population of this group who were out of work for more
than 6 months during that year.
Evidence also suggests that certain teenagers who suffer extensive
unemployment earn lower wages later in life. The direction of causation is very difficult to establish since persons with low skills may
simply fare poorly both early and late in life. However, the best evidence available suggests that poor labor market experiences early in
life cause reduced wages during adulthood. This suggests the importance of developing policies to improve employment opportunities
for the long-term unemployed and to reduce job turnover.
Training, Unemployment, and the Minimum Wage
A major problem in the youth labor market is the dearth of
*'career-oriented" employment opportunities. While people who participate in post-secondary schooling are generally subsidized by the
public sector, public support of equivalent magnitude has not been
available for the post-high school training of youth who choose to
enter the labor force after high school.
Employers may find it very difficult to offer such training because
of the constraints imposed by minimum wage legislation. These laws
discourage employers from hiring unskilled workers at very low
wages and compensating them further by providing training. This
may help explain very high job turnover among youths as they move
rapidly in and out of "dead-end" jobs. Another consequence of minimum wage laws is that they prevent some young people from acquiring the training that would permit them to find steady, well-paying
employment as adults. Statistical studies provide evidence that minimum wages significantly depress the accumulation of valuable skills
and .resulting growth in earnings among youths who are paid the
minimum wage. There is also evidence that the negative effects of
the minimum wage on employment and training are concentrated
43
disproportionately among youths with the fewest labor market skills.
Thus, although the stated purpose of the minimum wage is to reduce
poverty, experience suggests that it may actually decrease the lifetime
earnings of some of the poor and thereby increase income inequality.
POLICIES TO REDUCE YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
Almost all observers agree that mitigating the problems of instability and high unemployment in the youth labor market requires increasing the availability of career-oriented employment and training.
This can be accomplished through public support of training, minimum wage reforms, and employment tax credits.
The Job Training Partnership Act
The Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) of 1982 represents a
major Federal initiative to reduce structural unemployment among
youth and adults. The JTPA departs from previous Federal employment training programs by establishing a formal partnership between
private industry, the public sector, and vocational training institutions
for the purposes of planning, designing, and providing federally financed training. Federal resources are targeted to individuals identified as most in need: economically disadvantaged youth, low-skilled
and chronically unemployed adults, and skilled workers who have lost
jobs in declining industries and regions. The problems faced by the
latter group are discussed more fully later in this chapter.
The JTPA is intended to fill an important niche in the national employment and training system by serving individuals who are unable
to make use of job training provided by more traditional institutions:
high schools, vocational-technical schools, community colleges, universities, and employers. Federally funded training programs such as
JTPA provide a second chance to youth and adults experiencing
trouble in the labor market. The JTPA is administered at the State
and local level. This allows training programs to be tailored to the
particular needs of workers and employers in local labor markets.
Minimum Wage Reforms
The Administration will propose a summertime differential minimum wage for young people under the age of 22. Between May 1
and September 30 of each year the minimum wage for this group
would be reduced to $2.50 from $3.35. This measure would encourage firms to hire young people, just out of school, and give them the
experience needed to compete effectively in the labor market. It will
also encourage employers to provide youth who remain in school
with valuable work experience during the summer months.
The Targeted Jobs Tax Credit
An alternative policy avenue for encouraging employment and
training of young people is to provide tax credits or wage subsidies
44
to employers who hire youths. Tax credits are currently provided to
firms that employ economically disadvantaged youths, aged 18 to 24,
under the Targeted Jobs Tax Credit program. The credits are also
targeted to welfare recipients, and economically disadvantaged Vietnam veterans, cooperative education students, handicapped persons,
and ex-convicts.
The tax credit lasts for up to 2 full years. In the first year it is
equal to 50 percent of an individual's earnings, up to a maximum
credit of $3,000. In the second year it is equal to 25 percent of earnings, up to a maximum credit of $1,500. Participation in the program
has been limited since its inception in 1979. This is an apparent consequence of administrative problems encountered by the agencies responsible for determining program eligibility (especially the Job Service), reluctance on the part of eligible recipients to use the tax credit
as a self-marketing tool, and employers' reluctance to let government
programs influence hiring decisions.
Recent legislation added a second component to the tax credit program by providing a tax credit for summer employment targeted at
economically disadvantaged youths aged 16 and 17. The tax credit
for this group is quite large, equaling 85 percent of wages, up to a
total summer income of $3,000. The summer Targeted Jobs Tax
Credit program, in effect, allows employers to hire eligible youths,
who are paid the minimum wage for a net cost to the firms of 50
cents an hour. The program will be in place for the first time during
the summer of 1983.
A virtue of measures which subsidize employment and on-the-job
training for youth is that they counteract the large bias toward formal
schooling over on-the-job training inherent in current policies. In
part because of large public subsidies to higher education during the
last two decades, the percentage of young people, aged 18 to 24, enrolled in higher education rose very sharply from 26 percent in 1963
to 41 percent in 1975. This shift toward increased formal schooling
was accompanied by a decline in the relative wages of college graduates and high school graduates. The ratio of the average annual incomes of college graduates to that of high school graduates, aged 25
and over, fell from 1.53 in 1968 to 1.38 in 1978.
LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE
An especially visible and serious component of the unemployment
problem is composed of adults suffering protracted unemployment.
At present, most long-term unemployment is a consequence of the
recession and the resulting reduction in the demand for labor. But as
discussed earlier in the chapter, long-term unemployment will remain
a significant problem even after the economy recovers.
45
Structural Change and Economic Adjustment
A large part of long-term unemployment among adults can be
traced to structural changes in the economy. An increasingly important source of structural change is the growing interdependence of
the U.S. economy with that of the rest of the world. The share of
export and import-competing industries in GNP has increased over
the last several decades, and many industries have consequently felt
the cold winds of economic change. By December 1982 the unemployment rate had reached 23.2 percent in the motor vehicle industry
and 29.2 percent in the primary metals industry. Other industries, including mining, construction, and lumber, have also contracted rapidly, leaving behind a significant number of long-term unemployed.
These figures reflect both changes resulting from foreign competition and the sharp declines in the demand for manufactured goods
caused by the recent recession. The gradual decline of the dollar in
foreign exchange markets to historically prevailing levels, a drop in
real interest rates, and general economic recovery would contribute
to easing the problems of troubled industries, as explained in Chapter 3. However, most observers believe that foreign competition will
present persistent problems in some domestic industries even in the
long run.
In a number of these industries, significant adjustments will need
to take place. If foreign firms can continue to produce goods at lower
costs than U.S. firms, either domestic production will contract, forcing workers to leave the affected industries, or workers will have to
accept constant or even declining real wages. The former option is
particularly painful in industries like automobiles and steel, where
workers have become accustomed to high standards of living. Because wages in these industries are substantially greater than wages
in other manufacturing industries, workers find it difficult to locate
suitable alternative jobs.
Programs which inhibit the transition of workers from declining industries to growing industries would raise the level of structural unemployment in the economy. Included in this group are programs
which would provide financial assistance to industries without providing incentives for employee relocation or wage and price flexibility.
In a dynamic economy subject to the pressures of domestic and foreign competition, our economic health depends critically on the ability of workers and firms to respond quickly to changing economic
conditions.
Policies to Alleviate Long-term Unemployment
The centerpiece of Federal policy to alleviate long-term unemployment is Title III of the new Job Training Partnership Act discussed
earlier in the chapter. Title III established State-administered programs of employment and training assistance for dislocated workers,
46
defined broadly to include individuals who have become unemployed
as a result of plant closures, laid-off workers who are unlikely to
return to their previous industry or occupation, and individuals experiencing long-term unemployment in occupations with limited employment opportunities. Matching grants are provided to States on
the basis of their unemployment conditions. Title III authorizes
States to establish a wide variety of employment and training activities, including job search assistance, job training, relocation assistance, and employment counseling. Individuals receiving Title III assistance may also receive unemployment compensation, if they are
eligible.
The Administration in its 1984 budget has introduced two new approaches to the problem of reducing long-term unemployment. First,
it has proposed that Federal unemployment laws be amended to
permit States to use a portion of the unemployment insurance taxes
they collect to support retraining and job search assistance for their
unemployed workers. Second, the Administration has proposed that
the Federal Supplemental Compensation program be replaced when
it expires with a new temporary program that provides incentives for
work as well as compensation for long-term unemployment. As an alternative to added weeks of unemployment compensation, this program would give recipients the option of receiving assistance in securing work through a system of tax credits to employers. This will
give employers a significant incentive to hire the long-term unemployed.
THE EFFECTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION
For more than 40 years, unemployment compensation has given
valuable support to millions of unemployed workers and has provided an important source of security to millions more who are employed. Along with these beneficial consequences, however, the present structure of the unemployment insurance system has altered the
incentives faced by employers in hiring and firing decisions and the
incentives of unemployed workers to accept new employment opportunities. As a result, unemployment compensation seems to have increased the incidence and duration of unemployment.
The current system of unemployment compensation produces two
distinct but related adverse incentive effects. First, for those who are
unemployed it reduces the cost of unemployment, providing an incentive for longer durations of unemployment. Second, current
methods of financing unemployment insurance increase the incidence
of unemployment by increasing the size of seasonal and cyclical flucuations in unemployment and by making temporary jobs more
common.
47
Incentives to Prolong Unemployment
Payments to the unemployed clearly raise the level of household
expenditures that can be maintained when one or more family members are not working. Such payments reduce the economic pressure
to find work immediately, encouraging a longer period of job search
during which the unemployed worker hopes to find a more attractive
job than might otherwise be found. For some workers unemployment
insurance replaces more than 70 percent of after-tax wages during
periods of unemployment. Economic research indicates that there is
a positive relationship between duration of job search and the level
of unemployment benefits.
Workers who take longer to find jobs because of unemployment
compensation are in no sense "loafing" or "cheating." An unemployed person who does not expect to be recalled by his previous
employer can expect, on average, to find a better job the longer and
more carefully he looks. Unemployment insurance, by reducing the
cost of additional weeks without work, encourages unemployed workers to continue searching for better employment opportunities.
Incentives for More Unstable Employment
A second avenue through which the unemployment insurance
system, as currently financed, tends to increase the economy's rate of
structural unemployment is by increasing seasonal and cyclical fluctuations in the demand for labor and the relative number of shortlived, casual jobs.
The effect of unemployment compensation is to offset the market
forces that would otherwise decrease, at least somewhat, the amount
of unstable employment in the economy. Insofar as unemployment
compensation provides a subsidy to unstable employment practices,
it reduces the wage differential required to attract workers to seasonal, cyclical, and temporary jobs. And because employers pay a relatively small premium for unstable employment practices under current methods of financing unemployment insurance, they have little
incentive to reduce this instability.
The current subsidy to unstable employment patterns would be reduced if unemployment insurance were financed through a more
completely experience-rated employer tax that more accurately reflected the expected level of unemployment benefits to a firm's laidoff workers in the future. The theory of experience rating is clear: if
an employer pays the full cost of the unemployment benefits that his
former employees receive, he will not have an incentive to make excessive use of unstable employment practices. Recent statistical research demonstrates that there is, in fact, a strong positive relation-
48
ship between incomplete experience rating and employment instability.
Most States use experience rating to some extent, in that some employers contribute to the State unemployment compensation fund
partially on the basis of the unemployment experience of their own
employees. The degree of experience rating is highly imperfect,
however, for two reasons.
First, a significant share of benefits paid are not directly charged to
firms, but rather, are spread across all the firms in a State. These include benefits paid to job leavers, benefits to employees of firms no
longer doing business in a State, and allowances for dependents. Extended benefits, which are available in high unemployment States to
workers who have exhausted their regular unemployment insurance,
are also not directly charged to employers.
Second, employer contributions are limited by minimum and maximum tax rates. Firms stuck at the maximum or minimum tax rates
will find that their tax rates do not change even if the unemployment
experience of their workers is altered. As a consequence they face reduced economic incentives to smooth employment fluctuations.
One measure of the extent of experience rating is the proportion
of benefits received that are not effectively charged to the
former employer. A value of 100 percent represents perfect experience rating. A recent study of nine States over the period 1971-1978
found that on average, less than 60 percent of total benefits were experience rated, by this definition. The degee of experience rating fell
to 47.5 percent during the 1975 recession and reached a high of 62.6
percent in 1978, a year with relatively low unemployment.
The problem of imperfect experience rating has been partially remedied by a provision of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility
Act of 1982 which raised the federally proscribed lower bound on
State maximum unemployment insurance tax rates from 2.7 percent
to 5.4 percent of employers' taxable payroll. Because of this change,
fewer firms are likely to face the maximum tax rate.
CONCLUSIONS
The dual problems of cyclical and structural unemployment are
both extremely serious. Increased unemployment during cyclical
downturns, and the high levels of unemployment that prevail even
after the economy recovers, impose large costs on the unemployed
and the economy as a whole. Fortunately, both can be ameliorated by
prudent public policy. Sound macroeconomic policies will avoid recurrences of the rising inflation of the 1970s and subsequent in-
49
creases in cyclical unemployment. Policies directed at young people
and the long-term unemployed, and reform of the unemployment insurance system, can significantly reduce the level of structural unemployment.
50
CHAPTER 3
The United States in the World
Economy: Strains on the System
DURING THE 1970s the world's market economies became more
integrated with each other than ever before. Exports and imports as
a share of gross national product (GNP) reached record levels for
most industrial countries, while international lending and direct foreign investment grew even faster than world trade. This closer linkage of economies was mutually beneficial. It allowed producers in
each country to take greater advantage of their country's special resources and knowledge, and to take advantage of economies of scale.
At the same time, it allowed each country to consume a wider variety
of products, at lower costs, than it could produce itself.
Underlying the growth in world trade and investment was a progressive reduction of barriers to trade. The postwar period was
marked by a series of agreements to liberalize trade: both multilateral, like the Kennedy Round, and bilateral, like the Canada-U.S. auto
pact.
In spite of its huge benefits, however, this liberalized trading
system is now in serious danger. Within the United States, demands
for protection against imports and for export subsidies have grown
as a combination of structural changes, sectoral problems, and shortrun macroeconomic developments has led to a perception that we
are becoming uncompetitive in world markets. In Europe, a growing
structural unemployment problem, aggravated by the recession, has
increased protectionist pressures. In the developing countries a financial crisis threatens the integration of capital markets and is pushing many countries back toward the exchange controls and import restrictions they had begun to dismantle.
These problems must not be allowed to disrupt world trade. If the
system comes apart—if the world's nations allow themselves to be
caught up in a spiral of retaliatory trade restrictions—a long time
may pass before the pieces are put back together.
This chapter reviews the strains on the international economic
system and the policies by which the United States is attempting to
overcome them. It is divided into four sections. The first section discusses long-term changes in U.S. competitiveness. The correction of
51
widespread misconceptions about the competitive position of the
United States is essential if we are to get through the difficult period
ahead without making major policy mistakes. The second section of
the chapter is devoted to financial developments and their effects on
trade, especially the appreciation of the dollar and its likely effects on
the U.S. trade balance. Two final sections examine macroeconomic
and financial problems in Europe and the developing countries.
LONG-RUN TRENDS IN U.S. COMPETITIVENESS:
PERCEPTIONS AND REALITIES
Concern over the international competitiveness of the United
States is as high as it has ever been. It is argued with increasing frequency that U.S. business has steadily lost ground in the international marketplace. This alleged poor performance is often attributed
both to failures of management in the United States and to the support given to foreign businesses by their home governments. Feeding
the perception of declining competitiveness is the persistent U.S.
deficit in merchandise trade, especially the imbalance in trade with
Japan.
Changes in U.S. trade performance must, however, be put into the
context of changes in the U.S. role in the world economy. This wider
approach reveals that much of the concern about long-run competitiveness is based on misperceptions. Although the recent appreciation of the dollar has created a temporary loss of competitiveness,
the United States has not experienced a persistent loss of ability to
sell its products on international markets; in fact, in the 1970s the
United States held its own in terms of output, exports, and employment. Changes in the relationship of the United States to the world
economy, however, have made the United States look less competitive by some traditional measures.
AGGREGATE PERFORMANCE OF THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Discussion of U.S. competitiveness often gives the misleading impression that the United States has consistently performed poorly relative to other industrial countries. The U.S. share of world trade and
world GNP did in fact decline throughout the 1950s and 1960s, reflecting the recovery of the rest of the world from World War II, together with the narrowing of the huge and unsustainable U.S. technological lead. In the 1970s, however, this long decline leveled off.
• From 1973 to 1980, real gross domestic product (GDP) in the
United States grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, compared
52
with 2.6 percent in the other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries.
• From 1973 to 1980 the U.S. share of OECD exports remained
nearly constant, declining from 17.6 to 17.2 percent.
• Over the same period, employment in the United States grew at
2.1 percent a year, compared with only 0.5 percent in the rest of
the OECD countries.
The United States, in part as a side effect of its relatively rapid
growth in employment, did do poorly by comparison in one respect,
productivity growth. Output per worker grew at only 0.2 percent in
the United States, compared with 2.2 percent a year in the rest of the
OECD countries. Productivity is, of course, crucial to living standards; ultimately, the level of consumption per capita depends on the
level of output per worker. But there is no necessary relation between productivity and competition in international markets. Slow
growth in productivity only hampers a country's international competitiveness if it is not offset by correspondingly slow growth in real
wages. If U.S. workers, for example, were to receive real wage increases equal to those granted in other countries while their productivity failed to increase at a comparable rate, U.S. industry would find
itself increasingly uncompetitive. The fact is, however, that this did
not occur, as the comparative experience of the United States and
the European Economic Community illustrates. From 1973 to 1980
output per manufacturing worker in the European Economic Community rose at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, but real compensation
rose at an annual rate of 4.1 percent. By contrast, output per worker
in the United States rose 1.1 percent annually, while real compensation rose only 1.8 percent annually. In fact, until the recent rise in
the dollar's exchange rate, it was workers in the European Economic
Community, rather than those in the United States, who were probably pricing themselves out of the world market in spite of their relatively good productivity performance.
The overall performance of the United States, then, does not suggest a long-term problem of competitiveness. The shift from persistent trade surplus to persistent deficit which occurred over the last
decade is, however, often misinterpreted as a sign of an inability to
compete. In fact, changes in the structure of the U.S. balance of payments are more the result of changes in the U.S. saving and investment position than of slow productivity growth.
THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF THE U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
In the 1950s and early 1960s the United States normally had a
trade surplus and invested heavily in other countries. In the years
after 1973, however, the United States normally had a trade deficit,
53
and annual investment by foreigners in the United States began to
approach annual U.S. investment abroad. The shift in the U.S. trade
balance was closely connected with the shift in investment flows.
Taken as a whole, U.S. international transactions always balance.
Any force tending to increase or decrease the balance in one category of transactions sets in motion a process leading to exactly offsetting changes in balances in other categories. For example, an increase in foreign demand for U.S. exports tends directly to improve
the trade balance, but this improvement leads to a rise in the dollar's
exchange rate against foreign currencies. The exchange-rate appreciation in turn leads to increases in imports, a worsened balance on
services, and so on. Similarly, an increased desire by foreign residents to invest in the United States is reflected in an increase in the
capital account but leads to an appreciation of the dollar and an offsetting decline in other parts of the balance of payments.
The shift in the U.S. trade balance from persistent surplus to
persistent deficit was largely an offset to changes in the U.S. capital
account. In the 1950s and the first half of the 1960s, rates of return
on capital were lower and wage rates were higher in the United
States than in other industrial countries. Since the United States suffered no war damage, its capital stock was intact, and the diffusion of
U.S. technology abroad created a demand for new capital investment
in the recipient countries. The result was that returns to investment
were higher abroad than in the United States, and the United States
was a heavy net foreign investor. The counterpart to this foreign investment was a persistent surplus on current transactions, including
merchandise trade.
By the 1970s the other industrial countries had narrowed or eliminated these differences in capital and labor costs. The result was that
the demand for new capital abroad was no longer a great deal larger
than it was in the United States. At the same time, the supply of savings in the United States was restricted by a low national saving rate
(the lowest among the major industrial countries). Thus the United
States ceased to be a major net exporter of capital, and the current
account of the balance of payments moved from surplus to rough
balance. Meanwhile, the U.S. balance on items other than merchandise trade improved: the deficit in military transactions fell, the surplus in services rose, and, in particular, the accumulation of past foreign investments began to yield increasing income. This meant that a
balanced current account was associated with a deficit in merchandise
trade.
Table 3-1 and Chart 3-1 show how the structure of the U.S. current account has changed, measuring its components as percentages
ofGNP.
54
TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S. balance ofpayments, as percent of GNP, 1960-80
Percent of GNP
Type of balance
1960-66
1974-80
Change,
percentage
points
Merchandise trade
0.86
-0.80
-1.66
Investment income
.74
1.06
.32
Military transactions
.41
-.03
.38
Travel and services
.04
.12
.16
-.44
-.30
.15
.70
.06
-.64
Remittances
Current account
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Chart 3 - 1
Structural Changes in the Current Account Balance
PERCENT OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
1.5
INVESTMENT
INCOME
1.0
.5
-.5
-1.0
-1.5
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972 1974
1976
1978
NOTE.—DATA ARE 16-QUARTER WEIGHTED CENTERED MOVING AVERAGES.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
55
1980 1982
THE ISSUE OF U.S. TRADE WITH JAPAN
The perception of diminished U.S. competitiveness stems not only
from the U.S. trade deficit but from an impression that U.S. trade
performance compares poorly with that of other countries, especially
that of Japan. Japan runs a huge surplus in its manufactures trade,
while the United States runs only a small one, and Japan also has a
large surplus in its bilateral trade with the United States. These facts
are often attributed to Japanese trade restrictions. Japan does maintain restrictions which seriously hurt U.S. businesses. Trade restrictions, however, do not in the long run improve the Japanese trade
balance; as discussed more fully below, they lead to offsetting increases in other imports or declines in exports. The main explanation
of Japan's surplus in manufactures trade and in trade with the United
States is that Japan, with few natural resources, incurs huge deficits
in its trade in primary products, especially oil, and with primary producers, especially the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC). The surpluses in the rest of Japan's trade offset these deficits.
Table 3-2 and Chart 3-2 show the differences in the structure of
the Japanese, European, and U.S. trade accounts. They show clearly
how the huge Japanese surplus in manufactures offsets large deficits
in primary products.
Corresponding to the Japanese sectoral deficit in primary products,
especially oil, is a regional deficit with OPEC. Japan makes up for its
deficit with OPEC by running surpluses in its trade with other regions. The extent of this regional imbalance—and its contrast with
the U.S. position—is shown in Table 3-3. The point here is similar
to that already made with respect to the overall U.S. trade balance:
looking at Japanese-U.S. trade in isolation is misleading. The Japanese surplus in trade with the United States is largely a response to
the rise of OPEC.
Although Japanese trade policy does not play a central role in
causing the bilateral trade imbalance with the United States, Japanese
import restrictions remain a major source of friction. Japan maintains
a variety of nontariff barriers against imports. These include import
quotas for a number of agricultural products and "red tape" barriers
against manufactured goods, such as stringent inspection requirements applied against imported goods but not against Japanese products. These trade restrictions probably do not lead to a larger overall
Japanese trade surplus. If they were removed, the yen would depreciate and increased Japanese imports in the currently protected sectors
would be offset by reduced deficits or increased surpluses elsewhere.
Japanese trade restrictions do, however, distort the composition of
U.S. trade with Japan, imposing serious costs on some U.S. produc-
56
TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by commodity group as percent of GDP, United States, Japan, and the
European Economic Community, 1980
[Percent of GDP]
United
States
Commodity group
Total..
Japan
European
Economic
Community
-1.45
-0.99
-2.23
-1.93
-10.11
-5.41
Food, beverages, and tobacco
.40
-1.26
-.41
Crude materials excluding petroleum..
.54
-2.15
-1.23
-2.87
-6.71
-3.77
.48
9.12
3.18
-.42
3.09
.88
.90
6.02
2.30
Primary products
Mineral fuels
Manufactures
Machinery and transport equipment....
Other manufactured goods
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Chart 3-2
Composition of Trade, 1980
PERCENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
|
10
| TOTAL
PRIMARY
GOODS
MANUFACTURES
V.'.
•'•'
v>
. ".
:
i—IH
-5
-10
UNITED S T A T E S
EUROPEAN
ECONOMIC C O M M U N I T Y
SOURCE: ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT.
57
JAPAN
ers. As the fastest growing and second largest market economy,
Japan has a responsibility to help sustain the open trading system. A
major trade liberalization by Japan would do much to relieve the political strains on that system, while the failure of Japan to make more
than token concessions would intensify them.
TABLE 3-3.—Trade balances by region as percent of GDP, United States and Japan, 1980
[Percent of GDP]
United
States
Japan
0.23
1.92
= 1.45
-3.20
.52
Industrial countries
Oil-exporting countries..
1.46
Non-oil developing countries..,
Source: International Monetary Fund.
THE PROBLEM OF UNCOMPETITIVE SECTORS
Analysis of the overall U.S. trade deficit and the bilateral deficit
with Japan suggests that worries about U.S. competitiveness are
based in part on a misunderstanding of the situation. There is no
question, however, that increased foreign competition has forced
some sectors of the U.S. economy to contract.
This is partly a consequence of the fact that trade has become
more important to the U.S. economy. Specialization by nations is the
reason for international trade. If the United States is to expand its
trade, the U.S. economy must become more specialized. This means
that some sectors will grow and others will shrink. During the 1970s
the United States developed increasing surpluses in areas in which it
already enjoyed a comparative advantage and developed increasing
deficits in sectors in which it was at a disadvantage. Some illustrative
numbers are given in Table 3-4.
TABLE 3-4.—U.S. trade balances by sector as percent of GDP,
1972-79
[Percent of GDP]
Item
1972
1979
U.S. comparative advantage:
Research-intensive manufactures.,
0.93
1.63
Resource-intensive products, other than fuels..
.06
.67
Invisibles (services and investment income)....
.40
1.44
-1.27
-1.44
-.27
=2.41
U.S. comparative disadvantage:
Nonresearch-intensive manufactures..
Fuels
Sources: International Monetary Fund, National Science Board, and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Specialization of this kind is desirable both for the United States
and for its trading partners. Specialization and trade raise the efficiency of the world economy as a whole by allowing each country to
58
concentrate on doing what it does relatively well, and by allowing increased economies of scale. But greater specialization can leave those
involved in the contracting sectors worse off, at least temporarily. Attempts to prevent adjustment through trade barriers or subsidies,
however, impose severe costs on unprotected sectors.
Some sectoral reallocation of resources, then, is a normal consequence of the increasing U.S. integration into the world economy.
This is not the whole story, however. Some sectors of the U.S. economy are confronted by a problem that is not simply the result of
market forces. Broadly speaking, these sectors fall into two groups.
In one group are sectors where firms or their workers, accustomed to
having substantial market power, now find that they have priced
themselves out of the world market. In the other group are sectors
which are hurt by foreign protectionism or export subsidies.
Market Power and Competitiveness
The "problem" of diminished market power in some sectors actually derives from a desirable aspect of trade: the fact that trade increases competition. One of the major benefits of an increasingly
open U.S. economy is that it reduces the problems of monopoly and
market power, thus increasing efficiency and helping consumers. But
the transition to more competitive markets can prove painful. When
an industry accustomed to having domestic market power encounters
international competition, it must accept a reduction in the premium
in prices and wages it previously commanded over other sectors of
the economy. Both firms and workers may be reluctant to accept this
implication of increased competition, and idle capacity and unemployment may result. Prices and wages in some U.S. heavy industries
are probably too high to be sustainable in an integrated world economy.
Policies of Foreign Governments
A different problem is posed when foreign governments engage in
protective or export promotion measures that harm U.S. producers.
U.S. trade negotiators have emphasized four particular areas of concern:
1. Agriculture: Japan and the European Economic Community have
high protective barriers against U.S. agricultural products. Further,
the European Economic Community now engages in massive subsidized export of agricultural products to dispose of the surpluses created by its price-support program. These measures depress world
prices of agricultural products, imposing substantial costs on U.S.
producers in a sector where the United States holds a clear comparative advantage.
59
2. High technology: In recent years, many countries have come to
view the high-technology industries as vehicles for economic growth
and have sought to promote them through a complex mix of policies—outright subsidies, export credit subsidies, research subsidies,
preferential procurement by State-owned enterprises, and so on. The
United States holds a comparative advantage in high-technology
products, and the U.S. export market share has remained roughly
constant since 1973. Nevertheless, there is concern that in some specific areas, especially aircraft, foreign subsidies are threatening the
position of U.S. producers.
3. Services: The United States has developed an increasingly strong
net export position in services. Services, however, have never been
recognized as being under the rules of the international trading
system, and trade in services is limited by a maze of foreign government regulations.
4. Investment: Many countries impose "investment performance requirements'* on foreign investors in exchange for the right to invest
or to receive investment incentives. Many of those performance requirements are trade-related, requiring foreign companies to export
more, reach a specified level of local content, or reduce imports.
CHALLENGES TO U.S. TRADE POLICY
The next few years are critical for the international trading system.
Accumulating structural problems have combined with short-run macroeconomic stresses to produce a resurgence of protectionist pressures. The Administration's aim, nonetheless, is to preserve and
extend the benefits of freer trade. To do this will require resisting
protectionist pressures at home while continuing to urge foreign governments to eliminate their more objectionable trade-distorting policies.
Responding to Foreign Actions
The practices of foreign governments pose extremely difficult
issues for U.S. trade policy. The United States customarily seeks to
induce other nations to move in the direction of freer trade. The dilemma is how to do this without imposing costs on ourselves that
exceed the benefits from changes in other countries* policies.
Trade-distorting measures, whether they take the form of protection against imports or the promotion of exports, hurt the country
which adopts them as well as other countries, even when they are a
response to foreign trade-distorting practices. If foreign governments
limit imports from the United States and we respond in kind, the initial results will be further reductions in economic efficiency at home
and higher domestic prices. If foreign governments subsidize exports, depressing world prices for U.S. products, a countersubsidy by
60
the United States will depress prices still further. The belief that departures from free trade are automatically called for if other countries do not play by the rules is a fallacy.
Intervention in international trade by the U.S. Government, even
though costly to the U.S. economy in the short run, may, however,
be justified if it serves the strategic purpose of increasing the cost of
interventionist policies by foreign governments. Thus, there is a potential role for carefully targeted measures, explicitly temporary,
aimed at convincing other countries to reduce their trade distortions.
There are obvious risks in such a course of action. Instead of inducing other countries to move toward freer trade, U.S. pressure
might set off a cycle of retaliation which would leave everyone worse
off. There are also domestic political risks. Trade measures intended
to be temporary may end up permanent and institutionalized. The
need to balance the strategic objective of reducing foreign trade barriers against the harm which might be caused by U.S. retaliatory
measures explains the U.S policy of negotiating for freer trade while
holding open the possibility of more direct action as a last resort.
Responding to Problem Industries
The problems of industries which have recently lost their traditional market power also pose a serious policy dilemma. There is strong
pressure to give these industries at least temporary relief from imports, in the hope that lower wage and price increases and improved
productivity will eventually make them competitive again. On the
other hand, protection reduces the incentives for both firms and
workers to make these changes. Furthermore, protectionist measures,
however temporary they are supposed to be, tend to become permanent. The limitation of protection for these problem industries is a
central goal of U.S. economic policy.
EXCHANGE RATES AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
During 1982 the dollar rose against other major currencies to its
highest level since the beginning of floating exchange rates in 1973.
The strength of the dollar provided some benefits to the U.S. economy by reducing import prices and thus accelerating progress against
inflation. On the other hand, the strong dollar caused severe problems by decreasing the cost competitiveness of exported U.S. goods.
CAUSES OF THE DOLLAR'S STRENGTH
Exchange-rate movements are not well understood. Econometric
models of exchange-rate determination proposed in the past decade
have not shown any consistent ability to track past exchange-rate
movements, let alone predict future changes. Nevertheless, careful
61
analysis can narrow the range of plausible explanations of the dollar's rise.
The recent appreciation of the dollar, unlike many earlier exchange-rate movements, did not simply reflect contemporaneous
changes in relative price levels. The well-known theory of purchasing
power parity suggests that the rate of change in the exchange rate
should equal the difference between the foreign and domestic inflation rates. Over the very long run, or in situations of very large differences in inflation rates, the purchasing power parity theory has
proved to be a useful guide. But the theory has little or no power to
explain the recent rise of the dollar. Price increases over the past 2
years in Germany and Japan, for instance, were lower than in the
United States. Yet the dollar appreciated dramatically during that
period against both the mark and the yen. Stated differently, the rise
of the dollar was not simply a nominal but also a real appreciation, as
illustrated in Chart 3-3.
Large exchange-rate movements may also occur because of shifts
in world demand for a country's exports or changes in a country's
demand for imports. An example of such an event was Great Britain's discovery of oil in the North Sea, which has played at least some
role in the high level of Great Britain's real exchange rate relative to
other European currencies.
No comparable event accounts for the appreciation of the dollar,
although U.S. oil imports have declined sharply. The rise of the
dollar was not initially accompanied by a deterioration of the trade
balance, a fact which might seem to suggest that there was an increase in demand for U.S. goods. The initial lack of deterioration,
however, stemmed from lags in the effect of the exchange rate on the
trade balance rather than from a shift in either export or import
demand, and the U.S. trade deficit grew rapidly in the second half of
1982.
What the rise of the dollar seems clearly to reflect is a rise not in
the demand for U.S. goods, but in the demand for U.S. assets. The
reasons for the increased attractiveness of investment in the United
States are somewhat controversial, but the effects are not. In order to
buy U.S. assets, foreigners must first acquire dollars. The increased
demand for dollars drives up the exchange rate.
One important factor in the increased demand for U.S. assets was
that real interest rates in the United States were high relative to real
interest rates elsewhere. Real interest rates are not directly measurable, since they equal the nominal rate minus expected inflation. But
some rough measure is attainable by computing the nominal rate
minus actual inflation. Chart 3-4 shows the differential in real interest
rates, computed in this way between the United States and other
62
Chart 3 - 3
Real Exchange Rates Of Major Currencies
Against The Dollar
1973-80=100
130
120
%
t
\
/
\
r
\
110
1
*
100
•/"
7
90
80
J v\
Y N
E
\
-
\
V
*
*
—
—
-
\
S \
\
\
,
-*
FRANC
l\
-
\
\
MARK
*
70
60
• *
-
1 i
I I I1
1 1 1 i
,1
1 1 1 1 1 1 11
1980
1981
...A
*
i • . 1. . • i i i i
7
/
^ ^/
. */**
•
i
i i
i
1982
NOTE.—CONSUMER PRICES USED AS DEFLATOR.
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
industrial countries. The chart suggests that the real interest rate in
the United States was substantially higher than foreign rates in recent
years.
But events in the fall of 1982 cast some doubt on whether real interest rates alone can explain the dollar's strength. As U.S. shortterm interest rates fell sharply, the differential between short-term interest rates in the United States and other countries was greatly reduced. Yet the dollar continued to rise. The explanation for this may
lie in the difference between short- and long-term rates. Most exchange-rate models suggest that long-term real rates, and not shortterm ones, are what affect the real exchange rate. A notable feature
of the U.S. financial scene in the fall of 1982 was that long-term rates
63
Chart 3-4
International Real Short-Term Interest Rate
Differentials
PERCENTAGE POINTS
6
4
-
2
-
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
NOTE.—DATA ARE U.S. RATE MINUS AVERAGE OF RATES FOR MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
WEIGHTED BY GNP, ADJUSTED FOR DIFFERENCES IN CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION.
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
did not fall nearly as much as short-term rates. At the same time,
long-run inflation expectations may have declined, so that it is unclear how much long-term real interest rates actually fell.
Many observers believe that other factors besides real interest rates
help explain the dollar's strength. In particular, the unsettled state of
the world economy—particularly the problems in Europe and Latin
America described later in this chapter—may have created a desire
on the part of investors for a safe haven for their funds. The United
States, according to this argument, is still regarded as the most politically and economically stable of the market economies and has
become a financial refuge in troubled times. While the importance of
this factor is hard to assess, the worldwide search for financial
security may partially explain this country's rising capital account surplus and its growing current account deficit.
64
AN UNDERVALUED YEN?
The explanations of the strong dollar discussed so far leave out a
view which has received considerable attention—that the strength of
the dollar reflects deliberate undervaluation of their currencies by
our competitors, especially Japan. This view is important enough in
its implications for U.S. international economic policy to deserve separate treatment.
Arguments that the yen is undervalued are of two types, which are
basically independent of one another. One argument is that the Japanese government has persistently kept the yen undervalued. The
other is that the Japanese have only recently engineered a decline in
the yen to gain competitive advantage. Neither of these views appears
correct in light of the actual behavior of Japan's balance of payments
and exchange rate.
If the first allegation—that the yen has been persistently undervalued—was correct, Japan would run persistent current account surpluses in excess of what seems justified. We would also expect Japan
to have experienced exceptionally rapid growth in its foreign exchange reserves. Neither of these was the case:
• From the beginning of floating exchange rates in 1973 through
1981, Japan had an average surplus in its current account of only
0.15 percent of GNP. This was not much more than the U.S.
figure for the same period (0.11 percent), considerably less than
that of Germany (0.47 percent), and much less than the U.S. surplus of the early 1960s (0.70 percent).
• From the beginning of floating exchange rates in 1973 to the
third quarter of 1982, Japan's reserves minus gold grew at an
annual rate of 4.8 percent, far less than the 9.7 percent rate of
reserve growth for all non-OPEC countries.
These facts contradict the view that the yen was persistently undervalued. There remains the possibility that the yen's weakness during
much of 1982 was excessive in some sense. A natural question is
whether, after adjustment for purchasing power parity, the yen fell
more against the dollar than other currencies. The answer to this
question depends on the base period used for comparison. For most
base periods, however, the real depreciation of the yen against the
dollar appears smaller than that of the French franc and the German
mark. Table 3-5 shows an illustrative set of numbers. As the table
shows, only for a few base periods does the yen appear more "undervalued" than the other two currencies.
The actual behavior of the Japanese balance of payments and exchange rate thus do not support the view that there is any special undervaluation of the yen—that is, they suggest that exchange-rate
65
TABLE S-5.—Real appreciation of the dollar against major currencies to August 1982
[Percent change from base year to August 1982']
French franc
1971
1972
. ...
German mark
-1.0
11.8
Base year
-2.1
9.5
Japanese yen
=-25.3
= 13.1
1973
1974
27 9
21.4
31.4
31.0
2.0
6.4
1975
1976
39 5
29.6
33.7
28.8
7.3
10.9
1977
1978
29.4
43.0
35.9
50.1
1979
1980
50 8
51.6
53.8
44.2
1981
21.1
11.3
2
24.3
53.1
36.8
25.9
a
22.9
1
Percent change in the price of the dollar In each currency, adjusted for differences in consumer price inflation.
'Indicates a base year relative to which the August 1982 exchange rate of the yen looks lower than that of the other
currencies.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
movements over the last several years stemmed from a strong dollar
rather than a weak yen. An examination of Japanese policy by the
U.S. Treasury supports this conclusion. This study found that Japan
has attempted to isolate its domestic capital market from world capital markets, but that this has tended to limit capital outflow rather
than inflow, supporting rather than weakening the yen. Japanese capital controls have been relaxed in recent years, a move which the
United States supports even though the result will be a weaker yen
and an increase in Japan's current account surplus. In the 1980s,
Japan may well become more of a capital exporter than it was in the
1970s, and thus have larger current account surpluses. These surpluses, if they materialize, will result from Japan's high domestic
saving rate, which gives Japan a natural role as an exporter of capital
to the rest of the world.
To show that there is no special yen issue is not to deny that a
substantial deterioration has occurred in the relative cost position of
U.S. firms. This deterioration was actually larger relative to other
industrial countries, but since Japan is the United States' most important competitor, the depreciation of the yen worries U.S. firms more.
There is no special yen issue, but the strong dollar does pose genuine problems.
EFFECTS OF A STRONG DOLLAR ON U.S. TRADE
The rise of the dollar was associated with a large rise in the production costs of U.S. firms relative to those of foreign competitors.
To take one measure, unit labor costs in U.S. manufacturing rose 32
percent relative to those of a weighted average of other industrial
countries from their low point in the third quarter of 1980 to the
second quarter of 1982. This rise in relative costs has at least tempo-
66
rarily reduced the international competitiveness of U.S. industry dramatically. Other U.S. exporting and import-competing sectors, especially agriculture, have also been squeezed.
Despite this deterioration in competitive position, it was only in the
third quarter of 1982 that the U.S. trade deficit began to show a significant increase. This delay was in line with previous experience of
the effect of exchange rates on trade. The full effect of changes in
exchange rates on the volume of exports and imports is felt only
after some time has passed, because some trade takes place under
contracts signed in advance and because customers do not always
change suppliers immediately when relative prices change. The shortterm effect of a rise in the dollar is to reduce import prices, which
actually tends to improve the trade balance. Although the negative effects eventually dominate, some econometric estimates suggest that
the full negative effect is not felt for more than 2 years.
As the effects of the strong dollar are increasingly reflected in U.S.
trade, the trade deficit will widen. Economic developments elsewhere
in the world will also contribute to a widening trade deficit. The recession in other industrial countries will depress the demand for U.S.
exports, and financial constraints in developing countries will lead
them to import less. Both developments will have negative consequences for U.S. exports. Record trade and current account deficits
in 1983 will almost surely result.
Whether the trade and current account deficits persist will largely
depend on U.S. macroeconomic policies, particularly on the fiscal
side. If large budget deficits are allowed to continue to depress the
U.S. national saving rate, real interest rates may rise again, sustaining
or even increasing the high real exchange rate of the dollar. In this
case the trade deficit could remain high for several years.
A large and sustained trade deficit would result in an economic recovery which would be "lopsided" in the sense that exporting and
import-competing sectors would not share in the gains. Should this
occur, government, business, and labor officials must bear in mind
that even though protectionist foreign trade practices distort the
composition of world trade and reduce economic efficiency both in
the United States and abroad, large trade deficits are not the result
of unfair foreign competition. Large projected U.S. trade deficits are
a result of macroeconomic forces, particularly large budget deficits.
The main sources of the U.S. trade deficit are to be found not in
Paris or in Tokyo, but in Washington.
RESPONSES TO THE STRONG DOLLAR
The temporary adverse effects of a strong dollar create pressure to
do something for the exporting and import-competing sectors. Three
67
kinds of policies might be used: microeconomic intervention in the
form of protection or export subsidies, direct intervention in the foreign exchange market, and changes in monetary and fiscal policy.
Protection and Export Promotion
The negative effect of the strong dollar on the competitiveness of
many U.S. firms has fueled pressures for an interventionist trade
policy. These pressures must be resisted. Protecting import-competing industries or subsidizing exports is not just a harmful long-run
policy. With a floating exchange rate, such policies would fail to improve the trade balance or create employment even in the short run.
The exchange rate always moves to clear the market. An increase
in exports or a reduction in imports would lead to an increased
demand for or reduced supply of dollars on the world market, raising
the exchange rate. This would lead to a further loss of competitiveness in the sectors not protected or promoted. An export subsidy for
agricultural products would worsen the situation of the auto industry,
an import quota on steel would hurt the competitiveness of the aircraft industry, and so on. Although these indirect effects may seem of
doubtful importance in the real world, they are not. That governments cannot simultaneously protect everyone is a basic principle of
international trade.
Instead of creating additional employment and output, the distortion of trade through protectionist policies or export promotion
would probably reduce them. Market-distorting policies reduce the
efficiency of the economy. Thus, a turn to protectionism could create
a "supply-side" shock that might have the same kind of stagflationary
effects as an oil price increase. The effects would prove still worse if,
as is likely, U.S. actions were to provoke foreign retaliation.
Although protectionism and export subsidies provide no answer to
the problems caused by a strong dollar, the pressure to use them is
increasing. Many of the exporting sectors, which make up the traditional constituency for freer trade, appear to have become convinced
by the strength of the dollar and the resulting loss of U.S. competitiveness that a more interventionist policy is needed.
Exchange-Market Intervention
Since March 1981 the United States has abstained as much as possible from direct intervention in the foreign exchange market. This
unwillingness to intervene is based on doubts about whether exchange-market intervention is effective or desirable. As long as the
Federal Reserve continues to pursue a policy of targeting monetary
aggregates, any U.S. intervention on the foreign exchange market
must be sterilized—that is, offset by other transactions on domestic fi-
68
nancial markets. These transactions are likely to wipe out most of the
effect of the initial exchange-market intervention.
The process of sterilization is straightforward. If the U.S. Government attempted to drive up the price of foreign exchange and
weaken the dollar by buying foreign securities, the Federal Reserve
would issue dollars to pay for the foreign assets. In order to prevent
these dollars from increasing the U.S. money stock, however, the
Federal Reserve would then have to withdraw an equal number of
dollars from the market by selling Treasury bills. The only net result
would be that the world's supply of dollar-denominated assets would
increase, while its supply of assets denominated in other currencies
would fall.
The increase in the level of dollar-denominated assets would probably have little effect on the exchange rate because of the sheer size
of world financial markets. The world market in dollar-denominated
securities includes not only the dollar assets actually owned abroad—
foreign deposits in U.S. banks, foreign holdings of Treasury bills,
Eurodollar deposits, and the like—but also all those dollar assets
which are potentially tradeable. Thus, the total pool of internationally mobile dollar assets is probably in the trillions of dollars. This
makes it questionable whether even very large interventions in the
exchange market can have much effect on the exchange rate.
Macroeconomic Policies
Although the government cannot significantly affect exchange rates
through direct intervention, monetary and fiscal policies do indirectly
affect the exchange rate. A feasible strategy for bringing the dollar
down would involve looser monetary policies and tighter fiscal policies. Both of these changes would tend to lower real interest rates (at
least in the short run), making capital movement into the United
States less attractive and thus driving down the value of the dollar.
Despite its unfortunate effects on the U.S. balance of trade, however, monetary restraint is the prime weapon in the fight against inflation. Disinflation, as we have learned, unfortunately involves substantial costs. Under fixed exchange rates the heaviest costs of monetary
contraction and disinflation fell on the interest-sensitive sectors of
the economy, such as construction and consumer durables. With
floating exchange rates, however, much of the burden also falls on
exporting and import-competing sectors, which are injured by the
rise in the value of the dollar.
A tighter fiscal policy would also lower real interest rates and lead
to a lower dollar. Under fixed exchange rates, budget deficits crowded out domestic investment. With a floating exchange rate they
crowd out exporting and import-competing products as well. A re-
69
duction in deficits would lead—with some lag—to an improvement in
the trade balance as well as higher investment.
The strength of the dollar has put considerable strain on the resolve of the United States to remain committed to free trade. This
strain is not unique to the international sector. The recession and
high interest rates have also put a strain on the resolve to let other
types of markets, from housing to labor markets, operate freely. If
there is special reason for concern about the international side, it is
because of the danger that mistakes in U.S. policy could set off a
spiral of retaliation among all the major trading nations.
The competitiveness of U.S. business as a whole—as opposed to
that of particular sectors—and the balance of payments are macroeconomic phenomena. Microeconomic interventions cannot cure
macroeconomic problems; they can only make one sector better off
by hurting other sectors even more. The most effective strategy the
United States can pursue for its exporting and import-competing sectors is to get its overall economic house in order—above all, by
bringing budget deficits and real interest rates under control.
MACROECONOMIC PROBLEMS IN EUROPE
More than 90 percent of the output of the industrial countries, and
more than 70 percent of the output of the world's market economies,
is produced by the United States, Japan, and the European Economic
Community. Table 3-6 shows some comparative figures for the
three. The most striking feature of the table is the favorable performance of Japan by all measures. The United States and the European
Economic Community look rather similar in their less favorable performances. They experienced nearly the same growth rates before
1979, have suffered nearly equal decelerations of growth since then,
and had roughly the same unemployment rate in 1981. The U.S. inflation rate was lower than that in Europe, but the United States also
showed lower productivity growth.
Behind the similarity of U.S. and European experience, however,
lies a major difference. The U.S. economy, whatever its other difficulties, has provided employment opportunities for a rapidly growing
labor force. The current high unemployment rate is a cyclical problem, not the result of a persistent failure of employment to expand.
In Europe, by contrast, employment was virtually stationary over the
last decade, and unemployment has risen in every year since 1973.
This is a worrisome aspect of the European situation.
For a given rate of unemployment, the strains on society are probably greater if employment is stagnant than if it is growing. Growing
employment means that more new jobs are always opening up, offer-
70
TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance by major industrial countries, 1973-82
[Percent]
ed
es
Item
Four large
European
countries'
Japan
Growth rate in:
Real gross domestic product (GDP), 1973-80..
2.3
2.2
3.7
.2
2.2
3.0
-.2
.1
2.3
Consumer price inflation, year ending 1982:11..
6.8
10.2
2.4
Unemployment rate, 1981
7.6
7.4
2.3
Real GOP per employed person, 1973-80
Real GDP, 1980:l-1981:IV
Level:
'France, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom.
Sources: International Monetary Fund and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
ing job losers a chance for reemployment and new entrants to the
labor market a chance to get their first job. If employment is stationary, workers who have lost their jobs may stay unemployed for a long
time, and young people may never find jobs. The results of near-zero
employment growth are painfully visible in Europe, where long-term
unemployment (more than 6 months) is several times higher than in
the United States, and where the share of youth unemployment in
the total pool of unemployed has risen steadily since 1973.
How did the problem arise? The causes of structural unemployment are always controversial, but a key element in the European
employment problem was probably rapid increases in real labor costs
in the first half of the 1970s in the face of declining productivity
growth and rising oil prices. These increases in labor costs—which
stemmed at least in part from increases in social insurance payments—squeezed profitability. Firms closed their marginal plants and
invested in increasingly capital-intensive techniques, which helped to
sustain the rate of productivity growth but also led to employment
stagnation.
The unemployment problem in Europe is not caused solely by excessive labor costs. The periods of rapid increase in European unemployment, in 1973-76 and since 1979, came during business cycle
contractions (Table 3-7). The most recent rise in unemployment is
probably mostly due to restrictive monetary and fiscal policies adopted by the European countries following the oil price shock of 1979.
These policies were adopted out of concern that the rise in import
prices resulting from that shock—and, later, the further rise in
import prices resulting from the appreciation of the dollar—would
lead to an uncontrollable inflationary spiral. Thus, recent developments in the European economy are to some extent similar in character to those in the United States, which have also resulted largely
71
from disinflationary policies. The European situation is more serious,
however, because the current recession comes on top of a steadily
growing structural unemployment problem.
TABLE 3-7.—Employment and unemployment in the European Economic Community, 1973-80
[Percent]
Unemployment
rate
Increase in
employment
Year
1973
1974
1.1
.1
1975
1976
-1.1
-.1
2.8
3.0
42
4.9
1977
1978
.4
.6
52
5.3
1979
1980
.8
.2
5.3
5.7
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The United States has a major stake in the success of the European
countries in dealing with their macroeconomic problems. The stake is
not simply due to the fact that the major European countries are also
allies of the United States, nor is it simply due to the fact that roughly one-quarter of U.S. exports go to Western Europe. More than this,
Europe is a key part of the world economy, with an aggregate GNP
as large as that of the United States itself. If European countries
remain mired in economic stagnation and turn toward increased protectionism as a consequence, little chance will remain of saving the
open trading system.
THE INTERNATIONAL DEBT PROBLEM
Different problems from those facing the United States and Europe
afflict the economies of the developing nations. The problems of
these economies have accumulated over the last several years and are
products of both domestic policy mistakes and external developments, such as oil price increases, the recession in industrial countries, and high real interest rates. In the summer and fall of 1982 the
problems came to a head in the form of a sharp reduction in international lending to the developing countries.
DEBT-FINANCED GROWTH IN THE 1970s
Until recently, the growth of such middle income developing countries as Brazil, South Korea, and Taiwan was widely viewed as one of
the great success stories of the 1970s. Particularly notable was their
success in expanding exports of manufactured goods. While the
growth of these exports did give rise to some adjustment problems in
industrial countries, the successes of some middle income countries
72
were undoubtedly a highly favorable development for the United
States. Such success provided a dramatic demonstration to other
countries of the potential of market-oriented economic policies.
An important aspect of growth in the developing world, however,
was heavy borrowing from foreign sources. There is nothing inherently wrong in external borrowing to finance growth. Some of the
developed countries, including the United States, relied heavily on
foreign capital during earlier periods of industrialization. But some
developing nations borrowed too much, investing in projects of
doubtful productivity. When overly optimistic expectations about
export earnings and interest rates turned out to have been wrong,
these countries found themselves in serious financial difficulty.
From 1973 to 1981 the medium- and long-term external debt of
non-oil developing countries rose at an annual rate of more than 20
percent. Lenders might have viewed this rate of increase as more
alarming than they did, were it not for several factors which appeared
to indicate that the eventual repayment of the debt would not impose
a severe burden on borrowing countries. These factors included:
• A rapid growth in the ability of these countries to service their debt Exports of the non-oil developing countries grew at an annual rate
of 18 percent.
• Very low real interest rates. From 1973 to 1979 Eurodollar rates in
London, which set the basis for most international lending, averaged 8.5 percent, while U.S. wholesale prices rose at an annual
rate of 9.8 percent. Even allowing for the fact that third-world
borrowers paid small spreads over the Euromarket rate, the real
interest rates they paid were still negative.
• Special factors which appeared to ensure rising export earnings in the
future. The most important of these was oil reserves, which were
essentially treated as an asset against which countries could
safely borrow.
CAUSES OF THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM
Excessive borrowing by some developing countries made an eventual financial problem inevitable. The proximate factor which
brought the era of debt-financed growth to a halt was, however, a
sharp deterioration in the world economy. The rise in oil prices in
1979 was a blow to many debtor countries, and further strains resulted from disinflation in the United States and other industrial countries. The factors which led to a loss of lender confidence in the developing countries included:
• The effects of the world recession on export demand. T h e rapid export
growth of the 1970s came to an abrupt end in the early 1980s.
Exports of the non-oil developing countries actually fell by 7.5
73
percent from the first half of 1981 to the first half of 1982. Exporters of primary products were hit particularly hard: real commodity prices fell by 25 percent from the fourth quarter of 1980
to the second quarter of 1982.
• High real interest rates. In 1981 and the first half of 1982, Euromarket interest rates averaged 16 percent, while wholesale prices
in the United States rose at an annual rate of only 4.5 percent.
• The appreciation of the dollar. Since most international debt is denominated in dollars, while commodity prices tend to follow a
weighted average of industrial country currencies, the effect of
the rise in the value of the dollar was a sudden increase in the
size of developing country debt relative to prospective export
earnings.
The result of these developments was that banks, which had been
willing to lend large amounts to developing countries throughout the
1970s, lost confidence that the loans would be promptly repaid. The
debtor countries were highly vulnerable to such a loss of confidence.
Much of their debt was of short maturity, so that a large fraction of
their debt required refinancing each year. Argentina, Brazil, and
Mexico, for example, must make annual payments of principal and
interest which exceed their total exports of goods and services.
During the 1970s these large financing needs did not pose a problem, since countries were able to roll over their debt as it came due.
In the summer and fall of 1982, however, banks became reluctant to
make new loans and roll over old ones, first to Mexico and then to
other countries. The result was a quick exhaustion of the foreign exchange reserves of the major debtors.
IMPLICATIONS OF THE DEBT PROBLEM
The debt situation of the developing countries poses two problems
for the world economy. Although quite unlikely, failure to resolve the
debt situation in an orderly way could lead to major financial market
disruptions. More likely—indeed, it has already happened to a considerable extent—is a situation of forced austerity in debtor countries, with adverse effects on world trade and output.
Risks to Financial Markets
The threat of a financial disruption arises from the possibility that
debtor countries will be unable to live within their new financial constraints. The unwillingness of banks to lend as much as in the recent
past means that debtor countries will need to cut their imports or
expand their exports. In the case of the most heavily indebted countries, this will almost certainly mean achieving substantial trade surpluses in spite of depressed demand for their exports. The concern
74
of lenders that some debtors will not be able to achieve the required
adjustment is precisely what makes them reluctant to lend.
Fortunately, a serious financial disruption is unlikely. The debtor
countries and the banks which are their major creditors share a
strong interest in an orderly resolution of the debt problem. For the
debtor countries, maintaining good financial standing is essential if
they are to maintain access both to world capital markets and to their
export markets. At the same time, banks realize that demanding too
rapid a repayment from debtor countries could prove counterproductive, and they are probably willing to provide enough financing so
that debtor countries can more easily handle the financial squeeze. Although banks find themselves in somewhat of a "prisoner's dilemma"
situation, in which no one bank will want to lend if it believes that
the loans will only go to repay other banks, this problem should not
prove insoluble. The banking community should be able to work with
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in negotiating agreements
which balance an adequate degree of new lending to the debtor
countries with realistic economic adjustment plans. To aid in this
process, the Administration and representatives of other industrial
nations recently agreed in principle to an enlargement of the IMF's
resources.
Perhaps the most important safeguard against a financial crisis is
the ability of the governments and central banks of the major
industrial countries to provide a safety net for the international financial system. Central banks act as lenders of last resort for commercial
banks, providing effective protection against banking panics. At the
same time, industrial country governments have demonstrated their
willingness to help provide temporary financing for developing countries in order to bridge the interval until agreements can be reached
with the IMF. (The IMF recently concluded agreements with Mexico,
Argentina, and Brazil.)
Effects on World Trade
Although a serious disruption of the international financial system
is unlikely, for all of the reasons cited, serious problems still exist.
Even under optimistic assumptions, those developing countries with
high ratios of debt to exports will be forced to improve their trade
balances substantially in order to pay the interest on their debt.
Much of this trade balance improvement will probably come through
reductions in imports, involving painful reductions in output and real
wages in the debtor countries. This will also depress demand for the
products of industrial countries—particularly the United States,
which has especially close trading relations with some of the major
Latin American debtors. The debt problem of the developing countries may worsen the U.S. trade balance by $10 to $20 billion and
75
reduce U.S. GNP by one-half percentage point or more from the
level it would otherwise reach.
The Outlook for Debtor Nations
The problems of the developing countries are not insoluble. If
growth in the world economy resumes and real interest rates fall to
historical levels, the debt burden of even the most heavily indebted
countries will become much more manageable. Mexico and Brazil,
among the most heavily indebted countries, both have debts well
below half their GNPs. At a historically typical real interest rate of 2
percent, the real burden of debt service would fall to less than 1 percent of GNP—a fully manageable level in a growing economy.
The key to recovery from the debt problem, however, lies in increased exports from the debtor countries. Import restrictions by the
developing countries can only accomplish so much in improving their
trade balances. Imports have already fallen considerably in high debt
countries in the last year, leaving limited room for further cuts. As
growth resumes among the debtor countries, they will tend to import
more, and will need to export more to pay for the imports. They will
not be able to do this if the industrial countries, including the United
States, institute new protectionist measures. Yet as developing countries attempt to increase their exports, strong political pressures will
develop in the industrial countries to stop them. Leaders in the
industrial countries must realize that shutting out imports from the
developing world will not only incur the usual costs of protection—
higher prices to consumers and jobs lost in unprotected sectors—but
also will threaten the basic stability of the world financial system.
76
CHAPTER 4
Increasing Capital Formation
ATTAINING AN ADEQUATE RATE OF CAPITAL FORMATION
in the United States is a crucial challenge for economic policy during
the 1980s. Devoting a larger share of national output to investment
would help restore rapid productivity growth and rising living standards. During the past two decades, fiscal, monetary, and regulatory
policies contributed to the low rate of net investment in plant and
equipment; the share of gross national product (GNP) devoted to
capital formation was below the levels achieved by most other industrialized nations.
The Administration and the Congress have instituted a set of tax
and regulatory policies designed to increase the share of output devoted to capital formation. The noninflationary monetary policies followed by the Federal Reserve, with the Administration's support,
should also contribute in the long run to increased capital formation
and improved efficiency in the allocation of the capital stock. This
chapter examines the linkages between economic policy and capital
formation, and discusses the rationale for the Administration's initiatives in this area.
Many forms of investment contribute to productivity growth. Research and development expenditures provide the basis for the technological change that is a wellspring of productivity growth. Another
major source of productivity growth is investment in education and
training that promotes the accumulation of valuable human capital.
Public sector infrastructure investments may also have an important
role to play. This chapter, however, focuses on nonresidential plant
and equipment investment. Past public policies probably discriminated most heavily against this form of investment. Plant and equipment
investment is also more amenable to quantitative analysis than other
forms of capital investment because of the difficulties involved in
measuring intangible capital.
By late 1982, investment and capacity utilization rates in the
United States had fallen to very low levels. Even after the recovery
from the recession begins, capacity utilization will increase only
gradually, and it will take time for new policies to increase the share
of national output devoted to saving and investment. Hence, levels of
77
investment may prove disappointing over the next several years despite the beneficial long-run impact of policies recently put in place.
This should not cause us to lose sight of the importance of sound
long-run policy and the need to increase net capital formation in the
years and decades ahead.
THE HISTORICAL RECORD
Although gross private domestic investment, which includes residential and inventory investment, accounted for 16.1 percent of GNP
between 1971 and 1980, gross investment in structures and equipment averaged only 10.8 percent of GNP during this period. Of this
gross structure and equipment investment, more than two-thirds was
devoted to replacing depreciated capital, leaving only 3.0 percent of
GNP for new structures and equipment.
It is useful to place the patterns of investment in the United States
during the last decade in historical and geographic perspective. Table
4-1 displays the behavior of alternative measures of capital accumulation. The data show that the rate of net nonresidential fixed investment as a fraction of GNP declined by 27.5 percent between the late
1960s and the late 1970s. The share of output devoted to net nonresidential fixed investment in the late 1970s was slightly lower than
the average rate during the entire 1950-80 period.
Some analysts, examining only the data on gross investment, have
concluded that investment performance was satisfactory during the
1970s. This procedure ignores the fact that depreciation as a share of
GNP was greater during this period than in the 1960s because of a
general shift in net investment from long-lived assets, such as structures, toward assets with shorter lives, and because of a higher ratio
of capital to GNP. The appropriate focus in examining data on investment is the total stock of capital. Therefore, net investment,
which measures the change in the total capital stock, is the most appropriate indicator of the adequacy of capital formation.
An alternative way to evaluate changes in the level of capital formation is to examine trends in the capital-labor ratio. Measures of
capital per hour and capital per worker, displayed in Table 4-1 and
Chart 4-1, both show a large decline in the growth rate of the capital
stock relative to the growth in the supply of labor. Capital per hour
increased at only a 0.9 percent annual rate between 1976 and 1980,
compared to a 3.5 percent rate during the 1951-75 interval. Although this dramatic decline was in part due to the low rate of net
investment during the late 1970s, it was primarily a consequence of
the rapid growth of the labor force. To maintain the pre-1975
growth in the capital-labor ratio, a sharp increase in the post-1975
78
rate of net investment was required, instead of the decline which actually occurred.
TABLE 4-1.—Alternative measures of capital formation,
1951-82
[Percent]
Net private domestic
investment as percent of
GNP
Period
Total
investment
Nonresidential fixed
investment
Growth rate of net capital
stock '
Per worker 2
Per hour 2
1951-55
1956-60
7.2
6.1
3.5
4.1
1961-65....
1966-70....
6.7
7.1
2.4
4.9
1971-75
1976-80
6.4
6.0
2.6
.9
1951-80
6.6
1981..
1982 3
4.8
2.1
3.1
3.0
4.5
(*)
'Real net private nonresidential fixed capital stock at year-end.
2
All persons in private business sector. Year-end obtained by averaging fourth quarter value with value for first quarter of
subsequent year.
3
Preliminary.
'Not available.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics), and
Council of Economic Advisers.
Properly measured, the decline in the growth rate of the capital
stock is understated by the net investment figures in Table 4-1. The
energy price shocks of 1973 and 1979 hastened the obsolescence of a
variety of past investments, which implies that actual depreciation
was greater than the official statistics suggest. One estimate placed
the premature obsolescence of capital during the late 1970s at an
average of 0.5 percent of GNP per year. Other studies have obtained
much larger estimates using data on the market valuation of capital.
In addition, it is important to recall that much of the investment of
the 1970s took place in the energy-producing sector. The share of
GNP devoted to net fixed nonresidential investment outside the
energy sector averaged only 1.8 percent between 1975 and 1980.
Unfortunately, the combined effects of the recent economic recession and large Federal budget deficits will hold down the rate of capital formation, as currently forecasted, over the next several years.
Between 1981 and 1985, net investment in plant and equipment may
prove disappointing even by the standard of the late 1970s. The capital-labor ratio will grow only slowly and may even decline. While the
low forecasted rate of net investment over the next several years is
due primarily to cyclical conditions, it does not negate the importance of developing permanent policies to encourage capital formation. In light of the depth of the recent recession, it is reasonable to
expect that investment performance probably would have proven
79
Chart 4 - 1
Measures of Capital Formation
PERCENT
INVESTMENT AS
,'
PERCENT OF GNP1 '
I
1950
I
1955
I
I
I
I
I
1960
I
I
I
I
*•
*
I
1965
1970
1975
1980
1
NET PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT AS PERCENT OF GNP; FIVE-YEAR
CENTERED MOVING AVERAGES.
2
PERCENT CHANGE IN REAL NET PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED CAPITAL STOCK PER
WORKER IN THE BUSINESS SECTOR; FIVE-YEAR CENTERED MOVING AVERAGES.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS.
worse if the Congress and the Administration had not enacted tax
measures to spur capital formation. These laws, and the proposals incorporated in the President's fiscal 1984 budget, are designed to
raise the share of net investment to a high level by historical standards in the late 1980s or before.
AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Table 4-2 shows that the United States falls behind other major
industrial nations in several key measures of net capital formation.
The share of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) devoted to net fixed
investment during the last decade was only 34 percent of the compa-
80
rable share in Japan and 56 percent of the comparable share in West
Germany. No other major industrial nation devotes as small a fraction of total output to new investment as does the United States.
TABLE 4-2.—Comparison of capital formation in six OECD countries, 1971-80
[Percent]
Investment as percent of GDP
Country
Gross
investment
Gross fixed
investment
Net fixed
investment
Growth rate
of output
per hour in
manufacturing
France
24.2
22.9
12.2
4.8
Germany
23.7
22.8
11.8
4.9
Italy
22.4
20.1
10.7
4.9
Japan
34.0
32.9
19.5
7.4
United Kingdom..
19.2
18.7
8.1
2.9
United States
19.1
18.4
6.6
2.5
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
It is instructive to compare the growth rates of productivity for
different countries with their shares of output devoted to new investment. Although productivity growth and investment rates are simultaneously determined by a multitude of factors, it is striking that a
strong positive relationship emerges. As shown in Chart 4-2, Japan
has both the highest investment share and the highest growth rate of
productivity, while the United States has the worst investment performance and the lowest growth rate of productivity.
While the reasons for these large international differences in rates
of capital formation are not precisely understood, some evidence
suggests that the roots may lie in different public policies. After
World War II, rebuilding of the capital stock was a primary goal of
economic policy in continental Europe and Japan. Governments in
those countries encouraged saving and investment and disregarded
the early Keynesian fear that oversaving could reduce aggregate
demand and depress real economic activity.
In contrast, officials in the United States feared a postwar relapse
into depression and avoided policies which would encourage saving.
For example, some economists advocated sustained budget deficits as
a means of absorbing excess private savings.
It is now clear—on the basis of four decades of economic experience since the end of the Great Depression—that fears of secular
stagnation caused by a high and rising saving rate are unwarranted.
The much greater risk is that productivity growth in the United
States will continue to stagnate at low levels, and that American
workers will have to accept a lower growth rate in their standard of
81
Chart 4-2
International Comparison
of Investment and Productivity Growth,
1971-80
PERCENT OF GDP
GROWTH RATE
NET FIXED INVESTMENT
AS PERCENT OF GDP
(LEFT SCALE)
20
GROWTH RATE OF
MANUFACTURING
OUTPUT PER HOUR
(RIGHT SCALE)
15
10
•••:••:-:
UNITED
STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
ITALY
GERMANY
FRANCE
JAPAN
SOURCE: ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT.
living than their foreign counterparts. Otherwise, American goods
could cease to be competitive on world markets.
THE IMPORTANCE OF CAPITAL FORMATION
The case for increasing the rate of capital formation ultimately
rests on three justifications. First, increased capital formation can reverse part of the productivity slowdown that the United States has
suffered during the last decade. Second, government policies have
discriminated in favor of consumption and against saving and investment. Third, as a result of tax policies, the pretax return to capital
investment exceeds the after-tax return that any individuals are able
to capture privately, leading to an inappropriately low level of capital
formation.
82
During the 1970s, productivity growth in the United States decelerated rapidly. Between 1948 and 1967 the growth rate of productivity
(as measured by output per hour in the private business economy)
was 3.1 percent, compared to 2.3 percent between 1967 and 1973
and only 0.8 percent between 1973 and 198 L
The consequences of reduced productivity growth for our standard
of living over the long run are greater than those of any other current economic problem. In 1981 the American economy produced
approximately $12,780 worth of output per capita. Had productivity
growth continued at the 1948-67 rate during the 14 years subsequent to 1967, output per capita would have reached $16,128 in
1981, 26 percent higher than the actual value. As a standard of comparison, the recent recession reduced per capita output by only 4
percent between the third quarter of 1981 and the fourth quarter of
1982, less than one-fifth the reduction attributable to the productivity
shortfall. As time passes, the consequences of reduced productivity
growth are compounded. Increasing the productivity growth rate by
2 percentage points annually would more than double our material
standard of living by 2020, compared to the level it would reach otherwise.
The productivity slowdown is not reliably attributable to any single
cause or combination of causes. Various analysts have suggested that
higher energy prices, regulatory changes, reduced research and development spending, reduced opportunities for technical innovation,
the changing composition of the labor force, and changing worker attitudes, as well as reduced capital formation, are responsible for the
productivity slowdown. An accurate accounting of the sources of the
slowdown is probably impossible in light of the multitude of competing explanations and the statistical difficulties associated with distinguishing between their relative effects precisely.
Many of the possible causes of the productivity slowdown are probably not reversible through public policy. There is relatively little the
Federal Government could have done to offset the negative effect of
sharp increases in oil prices or, for that matter, to influence changing
cultural attitudes toward work. Changing the rate of capital formation, however, is a principal way in which Federal economic policy
can affect productivity growth.
Increasing the rate of capital formation will raise productivity
growth in several ways. More rapid capital formation results, on average, in workers having more equipment at their disposal. In addition,
increases in investment reduce the average age of the capital stock,
permitting physical assets to embody more recent technological innovations. Technological development and the level of capital formation are intertwined, because the development of more efficient and
83
sophisticated capital goods occurs when the demand for new capital
goods increases.
The legacy of past policies, which have artificially depressed saving
and investment, provides a second reason for increasing the rate of
capital formation. As described below, this discrimination against
capital formation has taken many forms, including tax policy, monetary policy and recurring Federal budget deficits. Although there
exist instances of market failure, a market economy can generally be
expected to allocate resources in an efficient way. When public policies systematically discriminate against one type of spending, however, there is a strong presumption that too little of it will take place.
A related and final justification for increased capital formation
comes from a comparison of the total pretax return to investment
with the return received by private investors. Estimates suggest that
the total pretax return to investment in corporate capital, as measured by its pretax marginal product, is about 11 percent. This means
that $1.00 invested today yields society $1.11 next year, or alternatively a permanent yield of 11 cents. While the total pretax return
fluctuates from year to year with cyclical conditions, studies have
tended to find that it has stayed within the range of 8 to 15 percent
throughout the postwar period.
In contrast, private investors have earned much smaller rates of
return over the last several decades, with many investors earning
negative real after-tax returns over much of that period. Even leaving
aside the effects of personal taxes, the real return on short-term debt
instruments averaged less than 1 percent during the 1950-81 interval. While equity investments have yielded a higher average return,
they carry with them a large amount of risk. The average real return
on common stock before personal taxes was 6 percent over the
1950-81 period, but investors lost money in real terms in 12 of those
years and over periods as long as 17 years.
This large spread between the total and private returns to investment is a consequence of the tax system, which extracts a portion of
the total return to investment before it reaches private investors.
Capital market returns are reduced because the corporate income tax
reduces the return that corporations can pay out to investors. As a
consequence of this tax-induced divergence between the private and
total return to investment, too little investment takes place. This suggests the desirability of measures both to reduce tax distortions and
to increase incentives to save and invest.
84
MEASURING NATIONAL SAVING
Domestic saving is an important determinant of a nation's level of
investment. Economic output is either invested in capital assets,
which help produce future output, or consumed privately or publicly.
Only by forgoing consumption does it become possible for a nation
to invest in a sustained way. While funds from abroad are available to
finance some investment, experience suggests that most mature
economies have financed investment through domestic saving. Increasing the rate of capital formation in the United States without increasing obligations to foreigners therefore probably requires increased national saving.
Table 4-3 provides information on net national saving as reported
in the national income and product accounts. On average, from 1951
to 1981, the United States saved 6.7 percent of total output beyond
that necessary to replace depreciated capital. Private saving, comprising personal saving and corporate retained earnings, totaled 7.3 percent of GNP. Federal Government dissaving through budget deficits
averaged 0.9 percent of GNP, while the sum of State and local government surpluses averaged 0.3 percent of GNP.
TABLE 4-3.—Net saving as percent of GNP, 1951-81
[Percent]
Not adjusted for inflation
Period
Total
Federal
Adjusted for inflation
State and
local
Private >
Federal
State and
local
3
Private
1951-55
1956-60
6.7
6,9
-0.3
.0
-0.1
-.2
7.2
7.1
0.9
1.1
-0.1
-.1
5.9
5.9
1961-65
1966-70
7.4
7.5
-.4
.6
.0
.1
7.8
8.0
.2
.6
.2
.4
7.0
6.5
1971-75
1976-80
6.4
5.8
-1.8
-1.9
.6
1.2
7.6
6.5
-.3
1.1
1.6
5.6
4.4
1981
5.0
-2.0
1.1
5,9
.0
1.5
3.6
1951-81
6.7
-.9
.3
7.3
.4
.6
5.8
'Private saving less capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment.
Adjusted by GNP implicit price deflator.
2
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Council
of Economic Advisers.
While the total saving rate can be measured unambiguously, there
are serious conceptual problems in measuring its various components
during an inflationary period. Inflation erodes the real value of the
national debt. Interest rates incorporate inflation premiums and
these premiums compensate lenders for the fact that they are repaid
in cheaper dollars. Thus, they do not really represent income to borrowers or costs to lenders. This principle is recognized by the Financial Accounting Standards Board and is often applied in the private
sector. Table 4-3 therefore also presents a breakdown between pri-
85
vate, Federal, and State and local government saving that is adjusted for the effects of inflation.
BUDGET DEFICITS AND SAVING
Unacceptably large Federal budget deficits are likely in the next
several years unless legislative changes are made. These deficits
could significantly reduce investment during the economic recovery.
Increased public consumption with no reduction in private consumption leaves fewer resources available for investment. When the Federal Government must compete with private borrowers for savings, real
interest rates are bid up, discouraging investment.
Federal dissaving would not represent a serious problem if it automatically called forth more private saving. While increased deficits do
not induce an equal increase in private saving, they also do not
crowd out investment expenditure dollar for dollar. Increases in the
real rate of return caused by Federal deficits raise the yield savers receive and may call forth some additional private saving. Higher real
interest rates also discourage spending on consumer durables, housing, and construction by State and local governments. Finally, by
contributing to increases in real interest rates, budget deficits encourage capital inflows from abroad. These factors imply that deficits
do not completely crowd out private investment; rather, a reasonable
estimate is that funds available for private investment are reduced by
perhaps one-half to three-fourths of the budget deficit.
The possibility that Federal budget deficits crowd out private investment takes on greater importance in light of the large deficits
that will occur over the next 5 years unless actions are taken. The
fiscal 1982 budget deficit of $110.7 billion absorbed 3.65 percent of
GNP. Projections now suggest the 1983 deficit will equal $207.7 billion or 6.5 percent of GNP. Unless significant actions are taken, deficits of this magnitude or larger may continue even as the economy
recovers from the recent recession. If such deficits materialize, the
consequences for capital formation could prove very serious unless a
dramatic increase in private saving also takes place. A budget deficit
of 5 percent of GNP would likely reduce net investment by an
amount equal to about one-half its historical level, relative to a balanced budget. With large deficits, significant improvements in labor
productivity and the quality and quantity of housing would be less
likely in the years ahead.
86
TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVING
Many economists believe that tax rules in the United States encourage consumer borrowing and discourage private saving. During
the 1970s the combination of tax rules and inflation produced a dramatic decline in the private return to saving and a large reduction in
the cost of borrowing.
During the 1960s, nominal interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills
averaged 4.0 percent, and the consumer price inflation rate averaged
2.3 percent. On a pretax basis, this left savers with an average real
return of 1.7 percent. For a saver in the 30 percent marginal tax
bracket, the real after-tax return was only 0.5 percent.
The return to saving fell significantly below this level during the
1970s. While the average inflation rate rose to 7.1 percent, the average interest rate increased to only 6.3 percent. This caused a decline
in the real interest rate measured on a pretax basis and a larger decline in the average after-tax rate (for a person in the 30 percent
bracket) from 0.5 percent to —2.7 percent.
The return to saving has fallen because of corporate taxes as well
as individual taxes. Corporate income taxes decrease the returns corporations can afford to pay to the holders of their securities. As described below, these tax burdens also increased substantially during
the 1970s, In addition, corporate taxes reduce the amount of funds
that corporations can retain for reinvestment.
At the same time that tax rules have reduced the return on savings,
they have encouraged dissaving through borrowing. Because consumer interest payments are tax deductible, taxpayers who itemize their
deductions are encouraged to use credit to finance their purchases of
consumer durables and other goods. As inflation increased during
the 1970s, the real after-tax cost of borrowing declined and eventually became negative. Indeed, in the first quarter of 1980 the real aftertax cost of borrowing for a taxpayer in the 30 percent bracket was
—1.2 percent. The encouragement of borrowing to finance purchases
of durable goods probably reduced the aggregate saving rate substantially during the 1970s.
The tax reforms supported by the President in 1981and enacted
by the Congress were designed to increase saving. Reductions in
marginal tax rates raise the after-tax return to saving and the aftertax cost of borrowing. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 will
reduce the marginal tax rate facing a median income family in 1984
from 28 percent, which would have occurred under pre-1981 law, to
22 percent. The act immediately reduced the marginal tax rate on
high income taxpayers, who account for a large fraction of personal
saving, from 70 to 50 percent.
87
The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 also contained several
other provisions directed specifically at encouraging private saving.
The Individual Retirement Account (IRA) provisions in the tax code
were extended to cover the entire working population. Working individuals are now permitted to make a yearly tax deductible contribution of $2,000 to finance consumption during retirement. Taxes are
only paid when the funds plus accumulated interest are withdrawn
from the IRA. Private estimates suggest a substantial response to this
legislation, with about $10 billion placed in IRAs during 1982. A crucial issue in evaluating the efficiency of IRAs is their effectiveness in
raising saving incentives on the margin. Some critics have argued
that IRAs do not provide an incremental incentive for saving because
contributors can simply transfer funds from other sources without increasing total savings. While this occurs to some extent, it is certainly
not universal and will decrease in the future as contributors exhaust
their funds available from other sources. The fragmentary evidence
available from private sources suggests that more than half of all IRA
contributors contribute less than the maximum amount allowable, indicating that they do face increased saving incentives on the margin.
The 1981 tax legislation also provided for an interest exclusion
starting in 1985, allowing individuals to exclude 15 percent of their
net interest income up to a limit of $3,000. This will also raise the
return to savings and spur capital formation. Extending the exclusion
to dividends as well as interest payments would reduce the tax bias
favoring debt over equity as a source of corporate finance.
The 1981 tax act also raised the return to saving by reducing the
top marginal rate on capital gains from 28 percent to 20 percent.
This reform partially compensates for the serious distorting effect of
inflation on the measurement of capital gains. Because of inflation,
an owner of an asset that experiences no real appreciation will nevertheless become liable, at the time of sale, for taxes on the nominal
appreciation of the asset. Complete elimination of this distortion
would require indexation for inflation in the measurement of capital
gains.
In recent years support has grown among economists and other
tax experts for moving the tax system toward taxation of consumption and away from taxation of income. This change might entail expanding the existing exclusions of interest and dividend income and
those mechanisms, such as IRAs, which permit tax-deferred accumulation of savings. It might also involve limiting the deduction of interest expenses for consumer borrowing. Movement toward taxation
of consumption is supported by some advocates on the grounds that
taxing individuals on what they take from the economy is "more fair"
than taxing what they contribute to the economy. A tax system based
88
on consumption taxation might also prove easier to administer than
the current system because it would eliminate many of the problems
involved in measuring certain types of capital income.
FINANCIAL REGULATION AND PRIVATE SAVING
An additional set of public policies that has probably discouraged
private saving over the last several decades is the regulation of financial institutions. As Chart 4-3 shows, small savers holding savings accounts subject to Regulation Q,have received below market rates of
interest, and holders of checking accounts have received even lower
rates of interest. These low returns are largely consequences of regulations limiting the interest rates financial institutions may pay on
customer deposits. As late as 1980, the spread between Treasury bill
rates and the yield on savings deposits subject to Regulation Q was
as great as 8 percent.
The adverse effects of financial regulations on personal saving
have probably lessened considerably in recent years, due to both private and public actions. In the private sector, the development and
explosive growth of money market funds has made it possible for
most high and middle income savers to receive market rates of interest. Legislation adopted in 1982 with Administration support has allowed commercial banks and thrift institutions to offer financial instruments with competitive interest rates to a wide range of depositors.
The Administration has strongly supported removal of the many
unnecessary regulations that have impeded competition in the financial services industry. As discussed in more detail in Chapter 5, the
Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of
1980 and the Depository Institutions Act of 1982 have played important roles in beginning this process of deregulation. Banks and thrift
institutions can now offer insured accounts that are competitive with
money market funds in terms of both the interest rates they pay and
the services they provide, thereby increasing incentives for saving.
A related development has occurred in the Federal Government's
policies regarding U.S. Savings Bonds. Savings bonds have historically paid low rates of return. In 1980, 10-year Treasury bonds paid
11.5 percent, while Series EE Savings Bonds paid an annual yield of
only 7 percent from issue to maturity 11 years later. Because of legislation recently proposed by the President and passed by the Congress, the return on savings bonds is now based on market rates. Between November 1, 1982, and April 30, 1983, for example, U.S. Savings Bonds will earn 11.09 percent if they are held at least 5 years.
Apart from making saving more attractive to savings bond purchas-
89
Chart 4-3
Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate and
Regulation Q Maximum Rate on Savings Accounts
PERCENT PER YEAR
16
14
12
10
MAXIMUM RATE ON
SAVINGS ACCOUNTS
\
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
ers> the new rates on Series EE bonds are desirable on equity
grounds because small savers can now obtain yields close to those received by their higher income counterparts.
THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS
It is likely that budget deficits, tax policies, and ceilings on bank
interest rates have contributed to the lower net saving rates which
the United States has experienced in recent years. In theory, however, this low level of saving need not have strictly limited the level of
funds available for investment. Funds from abroad can also finance
investment in the United States. The link between domestic investment and domestic saving is not absolute.
90
Nevertheless, a number of economic studies cast doubt on the
proposition that the United States could offset low domestic saving
rates through sustained borrowing from abroad. These studies have
found a consistently high correlation between rates of domestic investment and domestic saving in the major industrialized countries.
While the reasons for these results are not well understood, they may
reflect the high information costs and serious monitoring difficulties
associated with holding foreign investments. Whatever the exact
reason for the historically high correlation between domestic saving
and investment, it suggests that increasing the rate of investment in
the United States significantly will probably require policy measures
which increase domestic saving.
Insofar as savings from abroad are available for investment in the
United States, it is not clear that they provide a desirable substitute
for domestic saving. Throughout most of the postwar period, the
United States was a net exporter of capital. However, the United
States has recently experienced a large surplus in its capital account
and incurred a large offsetting deficit in its current account. This has
entailed large merchandise trade deficits, with deleterious impacts on
U.S. export industries and those domestic industries which compete
with imports.
THE ALLOCATION OF CAPITAL
With only a relatively small fraction of GNP available to finance investment, and with large budget deficits looming over the next few
years, the allocation of capital in the United States among alternative
uses takes on added importance. In addition to holding down the
rate of national saving, previous fiscal and monetary policies have
tended to alter the allocation of capital investment, favoring housing,
consumer durables, and State and local construction at the expense
of business investment. Inflation, caused by overly expansionary
monetary policies, and taxes interact to affect the incentives on
different kinds of investments. While a sound economic recovery will
boost saving sufficiently to provide for increases in all forms of investment, eliminating tax-induced distortions in the allocation of capital would also aid in regaining a rapidly rising standard of living.
It is useful to examine how the tax structure has very different effects on alternative forms of investment. The income from investments by corporations is taxed at both the individual and the corporate level. Corporate profits are taxed as they are earned. When
these profits are received by shareholders in the form of either dividends or capital gains, they are taxed again. By contrast, the implicit
returns from most other forms of investment remain untaxed. The
91
services to investors in owner-occupied housing and consumer durables are largely untaxed.
The bias in our tax system against corporate capital investment was
exacerbated during the 1970s by the effects of inflation. Corporations are permitted to take depreciation allowances based on historic
rather than replacement costs for tax purposes. Thus, as the rate of
inflation increases, the real value of depreciation allowances decreases, and the tax burden as a share of real profits rises. Another
source of inflation-induced corporate tax increases is that inflation
causes "phantom" gains in the value of inventories, raising taxes for
firms using the first-in, first-out method of inventory valuation. One
study estimated that the tax law's use of historic costs rather than replacement costs for depreciation purposes raised corporate tax payments by $19.1 billion in 1977, and raised tax burdens for corporations using first-in, first-out inventory accounting by $7.0 billion. Although these tax increases were partially offset because corporations
deduct nominal rather than real interest payments in calculating their
taxable income, the gains at the corporate level from the deductibility
of nominal interest are offset to some extent by losses from taxation
of the inflation component of interest rates at the individual level.
The effects of the interaction of taxes and inflation reached dramatic proportions during the 1970s. Increased taxation led to large
market revaluations of corporate and noncorporate capital assets.
The "q ratio," which measures the market value of capital in the
nonfinancial corporate sector relative to its reproduction cost, fell
from 1.09 in 1970 to .67 in 1980. The price of single-family nonfarm
dwellings relative to the price of consumption goods rose by 29 percent during the same period. During the last 2 years of falling inflation, however, the q ratio rose to about .80 in the fourth quarter of
1982, and the relative price of single-family nonfarm dwellings fell by
5.3 percent.
The supply of different types of capital goods ultimately depends
on their relative prices. The observation that reductions in inflation
are associated with changes in the relative prices of different capital
goods suggests that the reductions in inflation are likely to cause a
reallocation of capital toward plant and equipment investment and
away from investments in consumer durables and housing. These
shifts simply reflect the reduced magnitude of the biases caused by
our current tax system in periods of inflation.
TAX POLICY AND INVESTMENT
In 1981 the Congress instituted the accelerated cost recovery
system as part of the Economic Recovery Tax Act. This tax legisla-
92
tion permitted businesses to depreciate most purchases of equipment
according to an accelerated 5-year schedule. It also permitted businesses to depreciate structures over 15 years using a 175 percent declining balance schedule. The Economic Recovery Tax Act preserved
the investment tax credit on equipment and called for further accelerations in depreciation schedules in 1985 and 1986.
The 1982 Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act altered the provisions of the Economic Recovery Tax Act by instituting a half-basis
adjustment for investment tax credits in calculating depreciation and
by eliminating the. planned further accelerations in depreciation
schedules. Table 4-4 shows the present value of the depreciation deductions and investment tax credits received by a corporation under
the old accelerated depreciation system, Economic Recovery Tax Act
(ERTA) rules and Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA)
rules. The present value is calculated for a variety of hypothetical
combinations of discount and inflation rates.
TABLE 4-4.—Investment incentives 1 under different tax laws
[5-year property]
Inflation rate (percent)
Real interest rate
Tax law
4
6
8
10
1 percent
Pre-ERTA 2
ERTA
TEFRA
.495
.516
.495
.473
.500
.480
.454
.486
.466
.436
.472
.454
4 percent
Pre-ERTA 2.
ERTA
TEFRA
.462
.492
.472
.444
.478
.459
.427
.465
.446
.412
.452
.435
7 percent.....
Pre-ERTA 2.
ERTA
TEFRA
.435
.471
.452
.419
.458
.440
.404
.446
.428
.390
.434
.418
10 percent
Pre-ERTA 2
ERTA
TEFRA
.412
.452
.435
.397
.440
.423
,384
,429
.412
.372
.418
.402
'Present value of depreciation deductions and investment tax credits per dollar of Investment.
2
Assumes depreciation over 9.5 years using double-declining balance switching to sum of years digits.
Source: Council of Economic Advisers.
Three qualitative conclusions emerge from these calculations. First,
current tax laws provide significantly more stimulus to most categories of investment than did the pre-1981 law. Second, the reduction
in inflation that has occurred during the past 2 years has also increased substantially the value of the depreciation allowances. Third,
even with a relatively short 5-year cost recovery period, the value of
the investment incentives remains quite sensitive to the anticipated
rate of inflation.
In considering the economic effects of tax policies on investment,
it is crucial to distinguish between measures which apply only to new
investment, such as accelerated depreciation and the investment tax
credit, and measures which reduce the tax burden on all kinds of
93
capital income, such as corporate rate reductions. These two types of
investment incentives produce very different economic effects. Measures which apply only to new investments affect only marginal investment decisions; no tax benefit is conferred on the owners of existing
capital. Therefore, in the short term more investment is stimulated
per dollar of immediate revenue loss than would prove the case if the
tax benefit were conferred on all capital. The tax legislation enacted
in 1981 relied on tax incentives for new investments.
Incentives for new investment are viewed by some observers as
benefiting primarily large wealthholders, but the reality may be
different. Since measures like the accelerated cost recovery system
reduce the effective cost of purchasing new capital goods, they are
likely to reduce the value of the old capital goods with which they
compete. For example, a subsidy for the purchase of new cars will
reduce the value of used cars. Likewise, reduced taxation of new investment may temporarily reduce the level of stock market prices,
which in part reflects the market's valuation of existing capital. Thus,
investment incentives like those recently enacted, while raising the
rate of return on new investments, may actually hurt holders of existing wealth. Workers should benefit as greater capital accumulation
raises their productivity and wages. The effect on the distribution of
income is ambiguous* and might even prove progressive.
Beginning with the enactment of the accelerated depreciation provisions in 1954, policy has tended to rely on investment incentives
that stimulate new investment and do not benefit existing investments. This continued reliance on measures that benefit new capital
at the expense of existing capital carries a subtle but real risk. As investors come to anticipate this pattern of public policy, they may take
into account expected future changes in tax laws as they make investment decisions. This might have an unintended effect. Investors who
expect capital losses are less likely to invest. Stated differently, if the
effective purchase price of new capital goods is expected to decline
because of tax reforms, there will be a tendency to defer investments.
This suggests that in designing future reforms it may be desirable to
consider reducing taxes on existing as well as new capital.
While current tax law provides significantly more stimulus to investment than did earlier law, there is room for further reform. The
value of depreciation allowances is still dependent on the rate of inflation, increasing the uncertainty of investment decisions. The acceleration of depreciation allowances has substantially reduced the
burden of the corporate income tax, but investment in plant and
equipment is still discouraged by taxes on dividends and capital
gains.
94
A final problem under current tax law is the treatment of corporate
losses. Because of low profits due to cyclical conditions, or large depreciation write-offs, many corporations do not have taxable income
in some years, reducing the efficacy of investment incentives during
those periods.
CONCLUSIONS
The tax programs put in place in the last 2 years should play an
important role in increasing capital formation in the United States.
Yet, much more can be done to ensure a rapidly growing standard of
living in coming years. It is crucial that we take action to reduce large
Federal deficits and to further stimulate private saving and investment.
In considering the issue of capital formation, policymakers should
take a long view. The reasons for increasing capital formation primarily involve long-run growth rather than current economic conditions. We should not allow the poor performance of investment
during a period of recession and high deficits to blind us to the importance of policies that can help us achieve sustained and rapid economic growth in the years to come.
95
CHAPTER 5
The Burden of Economic Regulation
FOR MANY DECADES, the Federal Government has regulated the
prices and the conditions for entry in certain sectors of the U.S.
economy. This type of regulation, often called "economic regulation,*' was broadly applied to the transportation, communications,
and financial sectors of the economy. Whatever historical purposes
were served by economic regulation, there is an increasing consensus
that much of this Federal regulation no longer serves the interests of
the contemporary economy. Indeed, over the last several years a substantial part of this economic regulation has been relaxed or eliminated.
A second form of regulation, "social regulation," is addressed to
situations where unregulated activity may pose significant threats to
public health, safety, or the environment. Although there is an increasing consensus that economic regulation should be substantially
reduced, no such consensus exists concerning social regulation. Also,
unlike economic regulation, the magnitude of social regulation has
grown rapidly since the mid-1960s with the passage of extensive environmental and safety legislation.
Economic regulation has diminished in recent years due to a variety of deregulation measures. Substantial evidence is now available
concerning the performance of industries that have experienced full
or partial deregulation. This chapter summarizes the history of Federal economic regulation, its rationale, its impacts, and the effects of
recent laws designed to ease economic regulation. The chapter also
identifies some opportunities for further deregulation. Special attention is given to the economic regulation of energy, transportation,
communications, and financial markets.
A BRIEF HISTORY OF ECONOMIC REGULATION
The first broad body of Federal economic regulation was established in 1887, when the Congress created the Interstate Commerce
Commission (ICC) to resolve the increasing controversies between
the railroads and shippers. Most of the regulation of other sectors,
except for energy, was established by the end of the 1930s and re-
96
fleeted efforts to deal with problems similar to those that led to the
creation of the ICC. The agencies created in the 1930s tended to operate in much the same way as the ICC, and the outcome was much
the same.
Economic regulation often evolved from a dispute among several groups. For
example, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) was created to resolve disputes among users of the broadcast spectrum. The
Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) was created to resolve a dispute
among several Federal agencies concerning the administration of airmail contracts.
Congress delegated direct resolution of these disputes to an independent agency
with very general authority. The typical "public convenience and necessity" standard cited in the enabling legislation provides no direct guidance about how the regulatory agencies should resolve disputes. The
independent commissions are essentially quasi-judicial institutions
that have developed their own bodies of administrative law.
The initial regulations of the independent agencies often served the interests of
the regulated industry. For example, some scholars contend that the
ICC, by initially reinforcing the railroad cartels, caused higher average prices and reduced the variance of prices. For a long time, both
the CAB and the FCC restricted entry to the number of firms operating at the time these commissions were created.
The initial regulation led to more regulation that served to protect the interests of the initially regulated firms. F o r e x a m p l e , ICC regulation was ex-
tended to trucks, buses, freight-forwarders, and barges, thus restraining the developing competition to the railroads. FCC regulation was
extended to cable television, protecting broadcasters using the frequency spectrum.
Over the long run, many economic regulations have not served the interests of
either producers or consumers. The development of excess capacity, relatively high wages, restraints on technological improvements and operating practices, and competition outside the regulated environment
led to the lower-than-average rates of return in many of the regulated industries. Consumers have often been adversely affected by
higher prices and restrictions on service.
One other pattern of economic regulation was introduced in the
1930s. A belief that the depression was caused by excessive competition provided a rationale for many laws and regulations that directly
restricted entry, output, and competition. The broadest such law, the
National Industrial Recovery Act, was declared unconstitutional;
other similar legislation, such as the Agricultural Adjustment Act of
1938, is still in force. One might argue that the several regulatory
commissions and laws approved in the 1930s achieved their intended
97
effect of raising prices. A later generation questioned whether this
effect was desirable.
THE TRADITIONAL RATIONALE FOR ECONOMIC REGULATION
The two traditional justifications for economic regulation have
been to preserve the potential economic efficiencies associated with
natural monopoly in some industries and to eliminate the inefficiencies thought to be associated with excessive competition in others.
Natural Monopoly
A natural monopoly exists when the entire relevant demand for a
good or service can be satisfied at the least total cost by a single firm.
At the local level it is probably wasteful to have duplicate distribution
systems to provide telephone, electric, gas, and water services.
Among industries regulated at the Federal level, major gas pipelines
and high-voltage electric lines are often considered natural monopolies. Long-distance telephone transmission may also be a natural monopoly in areas of low density. Railroads are a potential natural monopoly only for that declining share of rail traffic for which the shipper does not have an effective choice of carrier or mode of transport.
Such industries present a dilemma. Competition may result in unnecessarily high production costs through duplication of facilities, but
an unregulated monopoly may not act in the public interest. Without
regulation, a monopoly would probably set prices too high and produce too little, with consumers willing to pay more for additional
output than the cost of supplying that output. A typical solution to
this dilemma is maximum price regulation. The primary objective of
price regulation is to set the monopoly's price as close as possible to
incremental cost while still assuring the monopoly a market rate of
return on its investment.
The growth of demand or the introduction of substitutes for a
product can often transform a natural monopoly into what—in the
absence of regulation—could become an effectively competitive industry. Oil pipelines, for example, are often assumed to be natural
monopolies. However, these pipelines now face competition from
other pipelines and other modes of transportation. Regrettably, price
regulation often continues long after it is efficient, restricting the
emergence of a competitive market. The history of the railroads provides a compelling illustration. In many parts of the country rail lines
were few and far between in the 19th century. But as the market for
transportation services grew, and as technology developed, automobiles, buses, and airplanes provided increasing competition for
passenger traffic, and trucks, barges, and pipelines provided increasing competition for freight. The natural monopoly justification for
98
regulation was probably not applicable in most rail markets by the
middle of the 20th century.
Even in markets where elements of natural monopoly still exist,
government intervention will not necessarily produce a more efficient
use of resources. Increasingly, analysts are coming to recognize that,
just as there are market imperfections, there are also government imperfections that must be considered in making public policy choices.
The relevant tradeoffs are not between imperfect markets and flawless government regulation, but rather between markets with imperfections and regulation which is imprecise and sometimes counterproductive.
Excessive Competition
The second traditional justification for economic regulation is that
unfettered markets result in excessive competition. This justification was
used for regulating railroads in the late 19th century and other industries in the 1930s. A common element in early discussions of excessive competition was that without regulation, unrestrained rivalry
among firms would result in losses for some or all of them and that
adequate production of an otherwise viable product would prove unsustainable. This argument, which was often rather vague, failed to
note that business losses are not a sufficient basis for government intervention. Losses and business failures are a normal part of the operation of competitive markets; they act to eliminate inefficient firms
and to shift production to meet changes in consumer demands.
While the concept of excessive competition was not generally well
defined, it has now come to refer to at least four possible sources of
market imperfection: natural monopoly, cyclical demand with imperfect capital markets, predatory pricing, and suboptimal product quality.
As explained earlier, where natural monopoly conditions exist,
competition among several firms can lead to higher costs because of
wasteful duplication.
A second interpretation of excessive competition is based on the
argument that certain industries, particularly those with cyclical
demand and heavy fixed investment, are prone to excessive price
fluctuations. According to this argument, firms are forced to close
down during recessions and then unnecessarily incur large start-up
costs during recovery because of alleged imperfections in capital
markets. These wasteful shutdown and start-up costs are avoidable, it
is argued, if government regulation sets minimum prices or allows
firms to do so.
A third definition of excessive competition focuses on the concept
of predatory pricing. Unregulated competition in some markets is alleged to result in monopolization by a firm that engages in predatory
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pricing—setting prices below cost in order to drive out competitors.
To succeed, a predator must outlast its rivals and barriers must exist
to prevent the entry of new competitors once the predator raises
prices. Regulation to prevent firms from charging excessively low
prices is intended to prevent such predatory practices and hence the
higher monopolistic prices that would prevail once the predator has
eliminated its competitors. No consensus exists among economists
that such predatory tactics are effective. Indeed, many economists believe that apparently "predatory" behavior, if ever successful, is a
manifestation of cost advantages or an enhanced ability to bear risk.
A fourth interpretation concerns the alleged tendency of certain
competitive markets to produce goods or services of inadequate quality, safety, or reliability if consumers are imperfectly informed about
those characteristics. For example, it has been argued that under
competitive pressure banks might choose excessively risky investments in order to offer their customers high rates of interest on deposits. Similarly, some have claimed that airlines may skimp on safety
in a highly competitive market. Even if such claims were true, it does
not follow that restricting competition will necessarily improve quality or safety. Moreover, there are more direct ways of addressing
these potential market defects, such as Federal Aviation Administration airplane safety inspections and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guarantees.
PROBLEMS OF ECONOMIC REGULATION
Most economists agree that the regulation of price and entry in
markets that would otherwise be competitive is inefficient. Regulation
of transportation, for example, has generally resulted in higher
prices, higher production costs, and slower technological growth.
Regulation of oil and gas prices has occasionally kept prices too low,
causing shortages and inefficient choices among competing fuels.
Deregulation usually leads to a reduction in cost to the marginal
user, whether the discarded regulations established maximum or
minimum prices. A price kept below the market price by regulation
has the effect of creating a system of nonprice rationing in which excluded consumers are forced to pay higher prices for substitutes. The
elimination of maximum price ceilings may lead to higher average
prices but lower prices to the marginal consumer. Exceptions to this
conclusion are where natural monopoly conditions exist or where
regulations lead to some cross-subsidy among consumers.
In some cases, price regulation leads to an excessively high level of
some service characteristic, because firms are prevented from competing on price. Because of price regulation of airlines by the Civil
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the airlines competed primarily
through frequency of flights, which led to low load factors and considerable excess capacity.
Direct economic inefficiencies are not the only costs of rate and
entry regulation in inherently competitive industries. Some additional
resources are used to lobby politicians and regulators for favorable
regulatory actions. The greater the benefits to groups created by regulation, the more such groups have an incentive to spend to block
deregulation. The magnitude of the benefits defended are often substantial. Trucking firms have sold operating rights, initially granted
them by the ICC, for over $20 million, and the broadcast rights of
individual television stations have sold for substantially more.
The argument that full deregulation is the appropriate policy for
industries with competitive market structures applies strictly only in
the long run. To minimize the risk of adverse short-run consequences from deregulation, most deregulatory initiatives have called
for either partial deregulation or a gradual transition to full deregulation. The Civil Aeronautics Board was not immediately abolished by
the Congress, and it retained some temporary domestic authority
through 1982. The Staggers Rail Act provided railroads with greater
price flexibility but did not provide for eventual elimination of all
price and entry controls. The Natural Gas Policy Act provides for
only partial deregulation of natural gas prices.
It is not clear how much information about the long-run benefits
of deregulation can be obtained by observing the process of gradual
or partial deregulation. For example, minimum price regulation may
cause excess capacity in an industry. When deregulation occurs, some
firms in the industry may go bankrupt. This may lead some to consider deregulation a failure and to propose re-regulation. Once the
excess capacity is eliminated, however, the industry may operate
profitably without any regulation.
Economists can offer one important piece of advice on partial deregulation: relaxing price restrictions without also relaxing entry restrictions may cause problems, such as developed in the air freight
market. Eliminating minimum price constraints while barring entry
may result in predation. Eliminating maxium price restrictions without allowing free entry may result in monopoly pricing.
Competitive economic forces, while powerful, are not the only
means available to consumers of products from deregulated industries to defend themselves. Antitrust policies may also be used to
protect consumers against the abuses regulation is sometimes
claimed to prevent. The antitrust laws prohibit anticompetitive behavior. Since regulated industries have often enjoyed broad exemptions from the antitrust laws, a review of the antitrust policies per-
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taining to these industries should accompany the deregulation process. At the same time, however, it is important to avoid misusing the
antitrust laws to maintain inappropriate types of regulation.
ENERGY POLICY
The pricing and allocation of energy resources was a frequent
focus of public policies over the last decade. Many of these policies
reduced the long-run supply of these important resources. In the last
few years, several measures have been taken to remove the inefficiencies and uncertainty caused by these policies.
STEPS TOWARD A MARKET-ORIENTED OIL POLICY
In January 1981, President Reagan ended the petroleum price and
allocation controls that were previously scheduled to expire in September 1981. Oil prices were first directly controlled as part of the
general system of wage and price guidelines imposed in 1971. The
data on subsequent production, drilling, consumption, imports, and
the energy/gross national product (GNP) ratio suggest that oil price
deregulation has had many beneficial effects.
Despite the disincentives provided by the "windfall profits"
(excise) tax on crude oil, the data suggest that decontrol has reversed
the steady decline in production (exclusive of Alaska) observed
during the period of price controls. As of October 1982, there were
seven consecutive monthly production increases over year-earlier
levels, a series of increases not observed in the United States for 10
years. Reported oil well completions in 1982 were 49 percent higher
than in 1980, despite the recent decline in real oil prices.
Since full decontrol, U.S. consumption has decreased by almost 11
percent. While part of this decline is due to the recession, a major
cause is the continuing adjustment to the price increases of the
1970s. Since decontrol, the energy/GNP ratio has declined by over 5
percent and imports (net of additions to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) have declined by about 34 percent. The elimination of the regulatory framework for petroleum prices removed the artificial incentives to import crude oil and residual fuel oil. The weakening of oil
prices has contributed to a stronger dollar and, thus, to lower prices
on all imported products.
NATURAL GAS PRICING AND ALLOCATION
Following the 1954 Supreme Court decision in Phillips Petroleum Co.
v. Wisconsin, the wellhead prices of natural gas sold in interstate commerce were regulated by the Federal Power Commission (FPC). Since
intrastate gas prices were not subject to regulation, a two-market
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system resulted. Price controls, when effective, led to shortages in
the interstate market both because the interstate pipelines could not
compete effectively against intrastate pipelines for gas supplies, and
because artificially low prices encouraged consumers to demand
more natural gas than they would have otherwise.
Rising oil prices in the 1970s triggered occasional gas shortages in
interstate markets. Industrial use of gas was curtailed during periods
of shortages, and many potential users of gas, both at the industrial
and residential level, were proscribed from using gas. The abnormally cold winter of 1977 produced a severe interstate gas shortage, resulting in numerous factory shutdowns, thousands of layoffs, and
other serious problems. It was evident by the mid-1970s that the existing system of wellhead price controls produced serious inefficiencies causing the underproduction of gas for the interstate market and
the misallocation of gas between the interstate and intrastate markets
and among different users within the interstate markets.
The Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978
The natural gas regulatory environment was changed substantially
by passage of the Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) in 1978. This act
was intended to encourage production by deregulating the prices of
newly discovered gas while restraining the growth of average gas
prices through permanent controls on the price of older gas. The
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission replaced the Federal Power
Commission, and price controls were extended to gas sold in intrastate markets. Over twenty regulated categories of gas were created,
each with its own initial ceiling price and rules for price escalation
over time.
The NGPA provides for the phased deregulation of the wellhead
price of most gas discovered after 1977, which should account for 40
to 60 percent of all gas in January 1985, while a smaller volume of
gas is scheduled for deregulation in July 1987. A small amount of
high-cost new gas was deregulated under the NGPA in 1979. Most
gas to be deregulated in 1985 or 1987 is fixed until those dates at a
price, in inflation-adjusted dollars, leading to the oil equivalent price
level existing in 1978. The NGPA also includes "incremental pricing"
provisions intended to allocate high-priced gas to industrial users,
thus preserving lower prices for other users. Along with the NGPA,
the Congress passed the Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act; this
law authorizes nonprice rationing of gas to counter the problems inherent in continued price controls.
As with many efforts to regulate prices, the NGPA has created numerous problems. Instead of producing the lowest cost gas supplies
first and moving successively to higher cost sources, producers are
induced by the different price categories to produce high-cost gas
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first in many cases, and generally to shift production efforts away
from cost-minimizing alternatives. The initial boom in the production
of deep gas illustrated this effect.
Further problems arise from the control of the prices of new gas
until those prices are decontrolled in 1985 and 1987. Since oil prices
have risen substantially since 1978, partial decontrol will generate a
continued increase in delivered gas prices in 1985 as consumers bid
up gas prices to levels equivalent with those of close substitutes such
as oil. Although real gas prices have risen and real oil prices have
fallen in the last year, average real domestic wellhead prices of gas
will rise by about 28 percent between 1983 and 1985 if there is no
change in the NGPA according to a preliminary Department of
Energy estimate.
The price of decontrolled gas is averaged with the price of controlled gas in determining the price to gas users and the demand for
gas is affected by prices for fuel substitutes. This is reflected in preliminary Department of Energy estimates which indicate that the
average 1985 prices of gas under the NGPA are not likely to differ
greatly from those that would evolve under full decontrol. Under the
partial decontrol authorized by NGPA, the prices of decontrolled gas
are bid up somewhat above the levels that would be observed in a
fully decontrolled market. Indeed, even now decontrolled deep gas is
being sold at the wellhead for over $7.00 per million cubic feet. The
preliminary Department of Energy estimates suggest that the average
1985 price under full decontrol will be $3.78 per million cubic feet
(both in 1982 dollars).
The higher prices to be paid for decontrolled gas in 1985 and
thereafter suggest that the average gas consumer will not benefit
from the remaining controls, and that the primary beneficiaries will
be the producers of decontrolled gas. Under the NGPA, however,
different groups of consumers will fare differently. Pipelines with
access to substantial quantities of price-controlled gas will be able to
bid deregulated gas away from other pipelines. This is because the
higher prices on decontrolled gas can be averaged with the lower
prices paid for gas still subject to controls.
This means, for some period, that consumers in different regions
may face different average prices, and that some gas will be reallocated artifically because of differential access to controlled gas. In particular, the intrastate pipelines will have relatively little access to controlled gas, and so some amount of gas will shift out of the intrastate
market into the interstate market. Interstate pipelines also will vary in
their ability to bid for decontrolled gas, depending on their access to
controlled gas and the actions of local regulatory authorities. In summary, in addition to the waste in gas production caused by the
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrolled gas will be allocated inefficiently among pipelines. The preliminary Department of Energy estimate of the present value of the efficiency gain that would accrue to
the economy from full gas decontrol in 1983, relative to the partial
deregulation authorized by the NGPA, is about $4.2 billion (in 1982
dollars).
The prospect of a price increase in 1985 may provide an impetus
toward extension of the NGPA price controls beyond 1985. Such an
extension would sustain the inefficiencies experienced as a result of
the NGPA. The preliminary Department of Energy estimate of the
present value of the efficiency gain of full decontrol in 1983, relative
to extension to 1995 of price controls now imposed by the NGPA, is
about $27 billion (in 1982 dollars). Because gas production would be
reduced by extension of controls, oil consumption would probably
increase. The preliminary Department of Energy estimate is that extension of gas price controls would increase oil import levels by
about 288,000 barrels per day between 1983 and 1995.
Reported gas well completions in 1982 increased 21 percent over
1980, while under full decontrol, reported oil well completions increased by 49 percent in the same period. Total proved gas reserves
(excluding Prudhoe Bay) declined over one-third during the 1970s.
The extension of controls thus would have very serious implications
for future domestic gas reserves.
Recent Natural Gas Price Developments
Natural gas prices have risen sharply in recent months because gas
controlled at relatively low prices is gradually becoming a smaller
component of total production and because some contracts fixing
very low prices have expired. Moreover, the NGPA allows price increases for some gas beyond a simple inflation adjustment. While it
appears that gas prices in some regions have reached short-term
market clearing levels, that is not true for other regions. On average,
gas prices are still apparently below market clearing levels—hence,
the expected price increase in 1985 under the path outlined by the
NGPA.
Some observers have noted that pipelines are buying expensive gas
while gas subject to lower price ceilings remains unsold. They have
concluded from this that gas markets are "irrational," and that full
price decontrol would not work effectively. This analysis is questionable. Under "take-or-pay" contracts, pipelines agree to pay for a
given volume of gas whether or not they resell ("take") it. Since
price controls have prevented pipelines from competing for gas on
the basis of price, they compete on the basis of contract terms. Increased "take-or-pay" contractual requirements are one form of such
nonprice competition. This behavior is a rational response to the ar-
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tificial constraints imposed by price controls and the general expectation of future shortages. In essence, increased "take-or-pay*' requirements are a way for pipelines (and implicitly their customers) to buy
insurance against future shortages. Pipelines with high levels of
"take-or-pay" commitments must now take and pay for relatively expensive gas, even though "cheaper** gas is available. This is "irrational" only in hindsight since surpluses of gas exist. If shortages had
developed instead, the use of "take-or-pay*' commitments would look
quite rational and "farsighted."
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
Conditions in the world oil market and preceptions about the effects of supply disruptions have both changed substantially in the last
several years. Trends in world oil production and consumption are
similar to those of the United States. World (non-Communist) consumption fell from 51.5 million barrels per day (mmbd) in 1978 to
45.5 mmbd in 1982. Production outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (including Communist nations) increased
from 30.3 mmbd in 1978 to 34.3 mmbd in 1982 (for the first 10
months). Furthermore, excess production capacity in OPEC has increased to at least 8.5 mmbd. It is likely that a future oil supply disruption, should one occur, would have smaller proportionate price
effects than those caused by disruptions during the 1970's. Both the
increasing geographic diversification of production and the presence
of substantial excess production capacity would mitigate the effect of
future disruptions.
The threat to use oil production as a political weapon may be less
effective then was previously perceived. It is very difficult to "target*'
individual nations with such a weapon because the international oil
transport industry has substantial capacity to transfer oil among nations. This is why the United States and the Netherlands, despite
their status as the intended targets of the 1973 embargo, faced the
same prices for imported oil as other oil-importing nations. Gasoline
lines in the United States were caused by the U.S. regulations. Equally important, oil producers cannot impose large penalties upon
others without imposing substantial revenue losses upon themselves.
The policies of this Administration reflect the view that preparation for disruptions in energy supplies can best take place through
the operation of market forces, and that price adjustments present
the most effective mechanism for dealing with such disruptions when
they occur. Minimizing the aggregate adverse effects of energy
supply disruptions is most efficiently accomplished by allowing prices
to allocate available supplies to their most productive uses and by encouraging market forces to increase production of substitute fuels.
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Price and allocation controls only redistribute some of the adverse effects of the disruption away from politically favored groups, therefore
making matters worse for other groups. In the aggregate, price and
allocation controls would exacerbate the adverse effects of the disruption.
Standby controls, even if never implemented, are harmful because
they increase the perceived likelihood that controls will be imposed
and thereby deter private preparedness. This is why the President
vetoed the standby controls legislation in March 1982.
Present policies also reflect a recognition that firms may have insufficient incentives to prepare for energy supply disruptions, in substantial part because of past government policy. Previous price and
allocation controls had the effect of penalizing those who had prepared for disruptions and subsidizing those who had not. Because of
governmental responses to energy supply disruptions in the past, and
the recent congressional proposal to establish standby price and allocation controls, firms must regard as substantial the likelihood that
controls would be imposed once again, despite this Administration's
firm commitment to avoid such policies. This expectation discourages both those who expect to benefit from controls and those who
expect to have their supplies appropriated from preparing sufficiently
for a disruption beforehand.
In recognition of this perverse effect of past policy, the Administration is striving to build up crude oil stocks in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve (SPR) at an efficient rate. Built up to only slightly more than
100 million barrels from 1977 until early 1981, the SPR now contains
over 290 million barrels and is growing steadily toward.the planned
level of 750 million barrels. The SPR is intended to supplement, not
substitute for, private sector stocks; accordingly, it would be used
only in the event of a severe disruption. Once a decision was made to
use SPR crude oil, it would be sold at market-clearing prices to
whomever wished to purchase it. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Plan submitted to the Congress in December 1982 contains a provision allowing the Secretary of Energy to reserve for special groups
faced with extraordinary circumstances up to 10 percent of a given
period's drawdown; oil allocated under this provision would be
priced at the level established in the most recent competitive auction
of SPR crude oil. This provision is not intended as a subsidy for particular groups. The policy of this Administration to fill the SPR at a
steady rate will move energy security preparedness in the United
States toward a more optimal level. To the extent that the availability
of SPR crude oil, combined with other energy policies and programs,
enables future Administrations to resist pressures for price and allo-
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cation controls during a disruption, the SPR may enhance private
sector preparation as well.
Except to the extent that use of foreign energy supplies is increased artificially by price controls and other adverse policies, it is
not the policy of this Administration to reduce dependence on foreign energy suppliers beyond the level determined by market forces.
In a world with relatively free trade and substantial capacity for reallocation of supplies, the allocative effects of a change in oil prices
(other than those operating through the exchange rate) are independent of whether a given nation's use of foreign supplies is great
or small. A disruption would raise prices and thus reallocate all available supplies whether foreign or domestic. Thus, a nation totally selfsufficient in energy supplies still would face the same oil prices as a
nation totally dependent on foreign sources. It is the policy of this
Administration to facilitate free trade while preparing for future contingencies through primary reliance on market adjustments and judicious use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS
The transportation and communications industries serve vital linkage functions in our Nation's economy. Until recently, these industries were broadly subject to traditional rate and entry regulation.
Regulation of most transportation sectors is probably not efficient
under contemporary market conditions. Most transportation markets,
due to the mobility of most of the capital assets of the firms in those
markets, are highly contestable. That is, with nearly costless entry
and exit, new firms can enter markets which have excessive prices
and can take advantage of the profitable opportunities that they provide. Thus, even with significant economies of scale in a transportation market, the threat of entry by new rivals should result in nearcompetitive pricing of transportation services. Additionally, most
transportation firms face significant intermodal competition. They
are also disciplined indirectly in some cases by competitive conditions in the national or international markets in which the commodities they transport are sold. The only segments of the interstate
transportation system for which regulation on a natural monopoly
basis may be justifiable are the major gas pipelines, long-distance electric transmission lines, and those sections of the rail system
where shippers do not have an effective choice of carrier or mode of
transport.
Telecommunications, due to a high rate of technological development, is one of the most rapidly changing sectors of the U.S. economy. The Federal Government plays an active role in the telecommu-
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nications industries through the regulation of common carriers and
broadcasters. Several important steps toward deregulation of these
industries were initiated in 1982. The government can enhance the
development of these industries through continued deregulation.
EFFECTS OF AVIATION DEREGULATION
Until the late 1970s the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) regulated
the airline industry extensively. It allocated interstate routes among
the airlines and controlled airline fares on those routes. Through its
control of air routes, the CAB restrained entry into the airline industry. From its inception in 1938 until the late 1970s, the CAB did not
allow any new airline to enter the interstate trunk market. Largely as
a consequence, air fares were higher on most interstate routes than if
price competition and freedom of entry were permitted. This was reflected by the differences in fares between intrastate city-pairs that
were not subject to CAB regulation, such as Los Angeles-San Francisco, and comparable interstate city-pairs that were. The latter often
had fares that were as much as 60 percent higher than the former.
In 1977 the CAB began to ease restrictions on fares and entry. In
1978 the Congress affirmed and extended the CAB's measures by
passing the Airline Deregulation Act. This act provided for the gradual deregulation of the airlines, with the termination of CAB domestic route authority in 1981, the termination of CAB domestic pricing
authority in 1983, and the elimination of the CAB itself in 1985. Subsequent steps were taken to increase potential competition in international aviation. In July 1982 the U.S. Government entered a multilateral agreement with several European governments that permits
greater flexibility in airline fares for trans-Atlantic flights than was
previously allowed.
While rising aviation fuel costs, the weak economy, and the 1981
air traffic controllers strike complicate assessment of the effects of
gradual deregulation, route and fare competition have increased substantially since 1977. From 1978 to 1981, the number of U.S. certificated airlines more than doubled (from 36 to 86). The market share
of the major trunk airlines declined from 87.3 to 80.4 percent in the
past 3 years while, during this same period, the market share of the
local, intrastate, and new airlines increased from 11.5 to 16.4 percent. Aircraft departures from large, medium, small, and nonhub airports increased substantially over the 2 years immediately following
airline deregulation. The percentage of domestic markets with four
or more carriers grew from 13 in May 1978 to 73 in May 1981. In
April 1982, 77 percent of the domestic coach traffic of the major airlines moved on discount fares, compared to 46 percent in April
1978. And while operating expenses per available seat mile rose by
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73 percent from 1976 to 1981, airline revenue per available seat mile
rose by only 58 percent in this same period.
Deregulation has also led to increases in operating efficiency. Airline labor cost increases have slowed and have actually declined relative to inflation. The established airlines have been forced to control
their labor costs in order to compete effectively with the new entrants, many of which pay substantially lower wages. Load factors
(the ratio of revenue passenger miles to available seat miles) rose
from an average of less than 55 percent between 1973 and 1977 to
more than 59 percent between 1978 and 1982. Airlines are now
using a wider variety of airplanes to serve their diverse markets.
Small markets are more likely to be served by smaller airplanes.
There is little need to fear monopoly in airline markets when the
CAB expires. Several studies have demonstrated that no system-wide
economies of scale exist. Since airplanes are easily transferable from
one market to another, airline markets are readily con testable. The
prospect of potential entry by rival carriers creates pressures for
close-to-competitive fares even in markets served by only one airline.
Deregulation of airlines has established a competitive and more efficient airline industry. As air travel in the United States increases
over this decade and as the busiest airports become even more congested, the new competitive structure may be challenged. Allowing
competition and the full transferability of the right to land and take
off at these airports may be necessary to sustain this competitive
structure. Additionally, the maintenance and future development of a
safe and effective national airway system is important to ensure that
consumers are well served.
EFFECTS OF PARTIAL DEREGULATION IN SURFACE TRANSPORTATION
The traditional rate and entry regulation of the trucking, freightforwarder, intercity bus, barge, and maritime industries is now largely
out of date. Many studies have demonstrated the absence of significant economies of scale in these industries, weakening the "natural
monopoly" rationale for entry restrictions. The high degree of capital mobility in these industries implies that individual city-pair and
port-pair markets are highly contestable. The existence of intermodal
sources of competition and competitive international output markets
for transported commodities further reduces any misallocations resulting from monoply behavior. Additionally, the high rate of technological development in the transportation sector renders many regulations inapplicable. The experience since the recent deregulation of
airlines and the partial deregulation of surface transportation indicates that a competitive industry structure would not reduce the financial viability of firms in these industries.
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Several major pieces of legislation were enacted in the last few
years to reduce the degree of regulation in the surface transportation
industries, including the Railroad Revitalization and Regulatory
Reform Act of 1976, the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, the Staggers
Rail Act of 1980, and the Bus Regulatory Reform Act of 1982.
The effects of the partial deregulation of trucking—initiated by the
Interstate Commerce Commission and affirmed by the Motor Carrier
Act of 1980—have proven very encouraging. Published trucking rates
are now subject to large and widely available discounts. Shippers
appear to be overwhelmingly satisfied with the rates, service options,
and competition for their business. Service to small communities has
not deteriorated, as was originally predicted by the opponents of deregulation, and most shippers in small communities also appear to
support deregulation. Both the number of new firms and failing firms
have increased substantially, the latter due in part to the recession.
Concerns have been expressed over the last year that the Interstate
Commerce Commission may be slowing the deregulatory process.
For example, the percentage of applications for grants of operating
authority approved by the ICC declined slightly in both fiscal years
since the passage of the Motor Carrier Act. On net, however, the
ICC has facilitated increased competition in the trucking industry.
The chaos predicted by the opponents of deregulation has not materialized, even during a sustained recession. The experience to date
clearly supports the case for more general deregulation of surface
transport.
The experience since the partial deregulation of railroads is similar. Although direct evidence on rail rates is not available, the
number of contracts negotiated between rail carriers and shippers (a
measure of the operating flexibility granted by the Staggers Rail Act)
increased from 580 in fiscal 1980 to 2907 in fiscal 1982. Railroads
have increased their share of total freight traffic and have substantially increased their shipments of some commodities, such as fruits and
vegetables, that were previously carried almost exclusively by trucks.
Railroad profits remained essentially steady despite the sustained recession.
While recent partial deregulation of the surface transportation industries has increased the competitiveness of these industries, the opportunity remains for significant gains from further deregulation.
There seems to be little danger that further deregulation would enhance the monopoly power of carriers. The high degree of capital
mobility in the trucking, bus, barge, and maritime industries should
prevent monopoly pricing over a sustained period, even where there
is only one carrier on a route.
Ill
FURTHER DEREGULATION OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION
For many decades, both carriers and shippers have made decisions
based on expectations that the general regulatory system would continue. As a consequence, the transition to deregulation can be disruptive. The major conceptual problems of further deregulation involve the following four issues: (1) the antitrust status of the rate bureaus, (2) the vulnerability of shippers who do not have an effective
choice of carrier or mode, (3) the restrictions on multimodal ownership, and (4) the restrictions on route abandonment.
As suggested below, these problems especially affect the prospects
for further deregulation of the railroads.
Antitrust Status of Rate Bureaus
For many years the regional rate bureaus (composed of transportation firms) have performed the normal functions of a trade association and have provided the forum for multilateral agreements on
both single-line and interline rates. These rate bureaus were exempted from the antitrust laws, and their proposed rates were generally
endorsed by the ICC. The Motor Carrier Act of 1980 removed the
antitrust immunity of the truck rate bureaus for single-line rates beginning in mid-1984, and established the Motor Carrier Ratemaking
Study Commission to study whether the antitrust immunity for multilateral agreements on interline rates should be maintained. In testimony to this commission, the Administration supported elimination
of the antitrust immunity of the truck rate bureaus. Members of the
commission, which was scheduled to complete its study by the end of
1982, were equally divided on this issue at that time. Additionally,
following the Railroad Revitalization and Regulatory Reform Act of
1976, the ICC restricted the authority of the rail rate bureaus to address single-line rates and restricted the carriers that could participate in an agreement on interline rates.
There remains a legitimate dispute about whether the rail rate bureaus should retain antitrust immunity when setting interline rates.
The general view of economists is that further deregulation should
be accompanied by the elimination of antitrust immunity. This approach would prevent the adverse effects of a carrier cartel and
permit interline agreements to be treated as a joint venture. Some
clarification of the application of the Sherman Act would also be appropriate to provide a stable legal environment for these interline
agreements. The contrary view is that the antitrust immunity should
be maintained as long as no carrier is bound by any bureau rates to
which it did not agree. A multilateral agreement on interline rates
may have substantially lower transactions costs on small shipments
than the alternative pattern of bilateral joint ventures, and any at-
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tempt to set cartel rates would be disciplined by the freedom of any
carrier to set other rates. (This issue is less important for trucks, because interline traffic is now less than 15 percent of total truck traffic,
and complete freedom of routes would further reduce such interline
traffic. Interline rail traffic, however, is 48 percent of total rail traffic,
and it is more important to maintain a process that economizes on
the contracting costs for small interline shipments.) The alternative
may be an undesirable situation in which rail carriers refuse small interline shipments, use trucks for shipments to points beyond their
routes, or face an artificial incentive for mergers.
The "Captive Shipper Problem"
The "captive shipper problem'* is what initially led to rail rate regulation. This problem was substantially reduced by the development
of alternative carriers and modes but has not been eliminated. Two
dimensions of this problem, however, have sometimes been misunderstood. This relation is a bilateral monopoly. Both the rail carrier
and the shipper have substantial bargaining power, and it is not clear
that this relation leads to rates that are generally "too high." Second,
this relation does not lead to any long-term misallocation of resources as long as the price of the shipped commodity is determined
in a competitive market. In any case, the sum of the rents on rail and
shipper property is constant. This inherent tension suggests that it is
important to avoid any effective restraint on the common ownership
of rail carriers and major shippers. One alternative may be to require
joint track use by competing carriers. Another alternative would be
to index the rate bands now authorized for, say, another decade and
to terminate these bands at that time. Unless this problem is resolved, however, some form of maximum rate regulation is likely to
be maintained in the rail industry.
Restrictions on Multimodal Ownership
There no longer appears to be any case for restrictions on multimodal ownership. It is especially important to allow rail carriers to
own trucking operations to facilitate container and piggyback traffic.
A change in the law would be required to allow rail carriers to own
barge lines. A change in the law would also be required to allow
freight-forwarders to own trucks, even though trucking companies
are now allowed to own freight-forwarders. The Bus Regulatory
Reform Act of 1982 provides a substantially streamlined process for
approving intermodal mergers not prohibited by law.
Restrictions on Route Abandonment
The primary problem of the railroads is excess route capacity, a
problem that reflects a combination of increased truck competition
and ICC restrictions on route abandonment. Some studies have indi-
113
cated that less than half of the existing rail mileage generates enough
traffic to cover total costs. The Staggers Rail Act provides for more
flexible procedures to resolve disputes on route abandonment.
Recent highway legislation, by increasing allowable truck size, is expected to make trucks more competitive with railroads in moving low
density freight. A better resolution of the route abandonment issue is
probably necessary for a healthy railroad industry and an efficient
distribution of freight traffic across modes.
In summary, pending a resolution of these four issues as they
affect railroads, it is probably appropriate to focus any near-term legislative proposals on the other modes of surface transport and for the
ICC to pursue selective rail deregulation within its existing authority.
Additionally, the government should continue, through the appropriate application of user fees, to ensure that each mode of transport
bears the entire costs of its operations when utilizing public facilities.
COMMON CARRIER TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Economies of scale provided the original rationale for making
long-distance telecommunications a regulated monopoly. But rapid
technological change has reduced the industry's natural monopoly
characteristics and has paved the way for a more competitive industry
structure. The growth of the market for telecommunications, due
largely to the convergence of data processing and telecommunications technology, has further reduced the natural monopoly characteristics of the industry. These rapid developments in both demand
and supply conditions have probably made the inherited regulatory
framework inappropriate.
Major legal changes were made recently to allow increased competition. In 1982 a U.S. district judge gave final approval to a settlement between the American Telephone and Telegraph Company
(AT&T) and the Department of Justice, transforming long-distance
telecommunications services into a competitive market with a greater
number of companies and less regulation.
In conjunction with other deregulatory steps by the Federal Communications Commission, the settlement is expected to have major
benefits for both the telecommunications industry and its customers.
Equal access to local facilities, which is the cornerstone of the settlement, should allow competition to act as an adequate substitute for
regulation of interstate services. While the transition to equal access
will take a few years, individual telephone customers will have progressively increased opportunities to make their own arrangements
with AT&T's competitors in long-distance services. Meanwhile,
AT&T will be allowed to develop its data processing subsidiary,
American Bell Inc. While AT&T is prohibited from offering home
114
computer information and advertising services via its long-distance
lines for 7 years, it is likely to become a vigorous competitor in other
fields, such as cellular mobile radio technology. It is also likely to
face increasing competition in these areas.
In 1982 an appeals court affirmed the Federal Communication
Commission's power to deregulate where technological change
makes regulation outmoded. Developments in data processing and
transmission have tended to make many Federal and State regulations unnecessary, inappropriate, or unworkable.
BROADCASTING
The FCC regulates the radio and television industries through issuance and renewal of broadcast licenses. It promulgates guidelines on
the amount of news and public affairs programming that stations
must broadcast, the maximum number of commercials permissible in
any time period, the recording of broadcast materials, and the ascertainment and fulfillment of community needs. As a result, broadcasters are prevented in some cases from carrying programming that listeners and viewers would prefer.
The original purpose of FCC regulation was to allocate broadcast
spectrum space. The FCC allocated these valuable spectrum rights in
exchange for commitments on program content. Whatever the merits
of this argument 50 years ago, it may be appropriate to review this
form of regulation to reflect the rapidly developing competition from
cable television, pay television, and direct satellite transmission.
Recently, the FCC has made several moves toward deregulation. In
1981 the Commission deregulated most commercial radio broadcasting and attempted, subject to legal challenge, to simplify the application renewal process. The FCC is in the process of repeating this
deregulatory initiative for the television industry. It will soon attempt
to amend the renewal process by eliminating the following criteria
for renewal: nonentertainment content, ascertainment of community
needs, advertising concentration, and recording. The last Congress
also considered bills to repeal many requirements, such as the "reasonable access/' "equal time," and "fairness" doctrines that are
costly to broadcasters and unevenly applied to the mass media.
These steps would partially remove the government from the determination of broadcast content.
DEREGULATION OF FINANCIAL MARKETS
The financial service sector has been among the most heavily regulated areas of the economy. Price regulation, entry restrictions, and
portfolio regulation were pervasive in both the banking and securities
115
industries. Substantial and numerous innovations in the financial sectors in the last decade largely preceded and were later facilitated by
recent partial deregulation.
DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS
The present structure of regulatory restraints on commercial banks
and other depository institutions was imposed primarily in response
to the collapse of the banking system in the 1930s. A common interpretation of the events at that time is that the banking collapse was
the result of an unsound banking structure which caused too much
competition. Competition among banks was thought to force them
into paying high interest rates for deposits, which in turn led them to
seek out high-yielding but risky—and ultimately unsound—investments in the stock, bond, and real estate markets.
Legislative remedies in the Banking Acts of 1933 and 1935, and
various revisions of the Federal Reserve Act, focused on limiting
price competition between banks, separating banking from securities
market activity, supervising banking and financial markets more
closely, and restoring public confidence in the financial system.
Reflecting a general concern about excessive competition, the payment of interest on demand deposits was prohibited by law. In addition, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation were given the power to place interest rate ceilings on
the passbook and time deposits of commercial banks. Interest rate
ceilings were extended to the deposits of mutual savings banks and
savings and loan associations in 1966.
The type and quality of assets held by banks were closely monitored. Commercial banks were not permitted to hold securities of a
speculative nature in their portfolios, and thrift institutions were subject to even greater limits on their asset acquisition powers. In addition, most securities activities were divorced from commercial banking by the Glass-Steagall sections of the Banking Act of 1933, and
entry into banking became more closely controlled. To maintain the
confidence of the public in the banking system, deposits were insured
by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation. With the introduction of deposit insurance, the other regulations served mainly to limit the exposure of the insurance funds rather than to protect depositors. Nevertheless, recent studies suggest that the web of regulatory restraints
was generally greater than required for this purpose.
Moreover, this extensive regulatory framework for financial institutions has adapted slowly to the economic changes of the last two decades. High inflation rates and consequent high nominal interest
rates, combined with reduced transactions costs from the application
116
of computer technology to the payments system, have created serious
distortions in financial markets. As market interest rates rose above
Regulation Q, ceilings, inflows of funds to depository institutions
were curtailed, and new nonregulated instruments (especially money
market mutual funds) were created. The allocation of savings to various sectors of the capital market—particularly housing vis-a-vis other
sectors—was altered, and small and less informed savers suffered declines in the real rate of return on their savings. In addition, Regulation Q, generated a considerable amount of nonprice competition between financial institutions, such as an excessive number of branch
offices, with resulting adverse effects on efficiency. Interest rate ceilings on selected deposits were removed progressively beginning in
1978.
The Administration continues to support the removal of unnecessary and excessive regulatory constraints on depository institutions.
It is now widely asserted that the length and severity of the banking
collapse of the 1930s was not the result of overly risky bank portfolios. Rather, many economists argue that these failures became widespread, initially, because of the reluctance of the Federal Reserve
System to engage in aggressive open market operations to counter
the conversion of deposits to currency and, later, because of the Federal Reserve's failure to assure adequate liquidity to banks experiencing runs on their deposits. As banks scrambled to liquidate their
assets to meet the demands of their depositors for currency, their
asset values fell, thus creating insolvencies. The provision of adequate liquidity by a lender of last resort has long been recognized as
a primary responsibility of the Federal Reserve System.
Partial deregulation of depository institutions is now proceeding
under provisions of the Depository Institutions Deregulation and
Monetary Control Act of 1980 and the Garn-St Germain Depository
Institutions Act of 1982. Under the 1980 act, interest rate ceilings on
time and savings deposits are to be phased out over a period of 6
years. The same law permits depository institutions to offer negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts and preempted certain
State usury ceilings. This act also created the Depository Institutions
Deregulation Committee (DIDC) to administer the phaseout of interest rate ceilings at banks and thrifts.
In March 1982, the DIDC adopted a deregulation schedule that
phases out interest rate ceilings, beginning with longer term time deposits. With the deregulation schedule in place, the focus of the
DIDC turned to short-term deposit instruments. Prevailing high interest rates had caused a continued erosion of low-cost deposits at
banks and thrifts, as depositors sought market rates elsewhere, particularly through money market mutual funds. The DIDC addressed
117
this problem by authorizing, effective May 1, 1982, a 91-day time deposit with a $7,500 minimum denomination indexed to the 91-day
Treasury bill rate, and establishing, effective September 1, 1982, a 7to 31-day deposit account with a $20,000 minimum denomination,
also indexed to the 91-day Treasury bill rate.
Following the directions given by the Garn-St Germain Act, the
DIDC authorized, effective December 14, 1982, a new money market
deposit account that can be offered by commercial banks, savings and
loan associations, and mutual savings banks. In addition, the DIDG
authorized a new super NOW account, effective January 5, 1983. Neither account is subject to interest rate ceilings when account balances
exceed $2,500. The DIDC also reduced to $2,500 the minimum denomination required on the 6-montfi money market deposits, the 91day time deposits, and the 7- to 31-day time deposits.
The introduction of NOW accounts nationwide in 1981, the authorization of the new money market accounts at banks and thrifts,
and the general phasing out of interest rate restrictions substantially
increase the ability of depository institutions to compete for funds.
Simultaneously, various actions have been taken to allow thrift institutions greater flexibility in the investment of funds. The Deregulation and Monetary Control Act expands the asset powers of saving
and loan associations and mutual savings banks to include consumer,
corporate, and business loans. This will lead to more diversified portfolios for these institutions. In addition, new regulations issued by
the Comptroller of the Currency in 1981 and the Federal Home
Loan Bank Board in 1982 permit depository institutions to offer variable rate mortgages. Finally, the Garn-St Germain Act provides for
Federal preemption of State laws and judicial decisions that restrict
the enforcement of due-on-sale clauses in real property loans.
The Garn-St Germain Act also deals with the problems of the savings and loan institutions discussed above. It provides capital assistance to depository institutions that have suffered earnings and capital
losses resulting from regulatory restraints on their assets and liabilities. The assisted institutions issue capital investments, called "net
worth certificates," which the insuring agencies purchase with promissory notes. This increase in net worth reduces the likelihood of insolvencies arising from losses created by holdings of old, fixed-rate
mortgages. As market rates of interest fall, and the earnings of these
depository institutions improve, the net worth certificates will be retired.
Legislation following the banking collapse of the 1930s tended to
prevent competition among financial institutions and created a complex and often counterproductive labyrinth of financial regulations.
Recent legislation and regulatory changes have begun to reverse this
118
trend by widening the sources and uses of funds available to depository institutions, and by allowing for a far larger measure of price
competition in the financial services industry. These actions should
contribute to a stronger and more responsive financial system.
STOCK EXCHANGES
Much of the regulation of the Nation's stock exchanges began in
the 1930s, largely in response to the crisis in the financial markets
created by the Great Depression. This regulation was broad and diverse, and included mandatory and systematic disclosure of corporate
records as well as rule-setting authority over stock exchanges. Over
the last several years, much of this regulation has been relaxed.
Commission Rates
Prior to 1968, commissions paid to members of stock exchanges
were fixed by those stock exchanges and approved by the Securities
and Exchange Commission (SEC). After 1968, however, the fixed
commission schedule was slowly dismantled in favor of negotiated
commissions. Beginning in May 1975, commission rates on all security transactions were negotiated.
Negotiated commission rates were the product of a market-induced
breakdown of the fixed-rate commission structure. From 1961 to
1966 the dollar volume and market share of the regional stock exchanges increased dramatically because of the fixed-rate system. Regional stock exchanges allowed customers dealing on those exchanges to "give up" or have transferred a portion of their fixed
commission to a third party who supplied other services. The New
York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stipulated that customers of that exchange could only give up commissions to other members of the
NYSE. This constraint that the NYSE imposed on its customers encouraged many of those customers to turn to the regional exchanges,
where competition had effectively driven down the cost of exchange
services.
Faced with a declining share of stock transactions, the NYSE asked
the SEC to force regional exchanges to eliminate the rules that were
affording them a competitive advantage. Commenting on the NYSE
proposal, the Department of Justice suggested that the broader issue
of possible elimination of the fixed-rate commission structure should
be examined. In defense of the fixed-rate commission structure, a
NYSE study suggested that "destructive competition," reflected in a
decline in the quality of broker services, could result from the absence of fixed commission rates.
Despite the objections of the NYSE, the Congress passed the Securities Acts Amendments of 1975. These reconfirmed that nonmember
commission rates were fully negotiable and made exchange floor
119
rates fully negotiable by May 1976. The deregulation of fixed commission rates illustrates the efficiency gains that follow deregulation.
Since the total deregulation of commission rates, average commissions charged to customers have decreased. Services which were previously provided jointly whether customers used them or not, are
now substantially unbundled.
Financial Disclosure
The Securities Exchange Act of 1933 required financial disclosure
for corporations seeking to raise capital through the issuance of new
securities. The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 required periodic financial disclosure for corporations with publicly traded securities.
One of the motivations for this original legislation was a belief that
corporations must be forced to disclose financial information in
order to protect the interests of investors. In recent years there has
been concern that these requirements have precluded new security
issues thus inhibiting the efficiency of the capital market. Additionally, a growing body of scholarship has questioned whether these requirements have served the interests of investors. Recently, some of
these stringent disclosure requirements were ended for certain types
of corporations. Specifically, corporations with less than $3 million in
assets and 500 stockholders are now exempt from the filing requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
The SEC has also recently allowed, on an experimental basis, some
firms issuing new securities to use "shelf registration'* forms, thus
eliminating the requirement to file for each new security issue. The
initiation of shelf registration is expected to reduce the costs of raising equity capital, allowing firms to manage their risk more efficiently
by entering the capital markets more often.
Industry Structure
Before 1980, stocks listed on stock exchanges could not be traded
by members of those stock exchanges in any other markets. This barrier to entry was partially lifted in June 1980, when the SEC approved Rule 19c-3. This rule allows members of stock exchanges to
trade securities in other markets that were listed on those stock exchanges after May 1979.
Stock exchange members are now also allowed to execute trades in
the "19c-3 securities" in markets other than the stock exchanges.
The market share of non-19c-3 stocks on the Over-the-Counter
(OTG) markets is considerably less than the OTC market share for
19c-3 securities. This larger market share for the OTC in 19c-3 securities suggests that, for some exchange members, it is more efficient to execute orders on the OTC rather than on the stock ex-
120
changes. That is, members can arbitrage price differentials that may
exist between the OTC market and the exchanges.
Futures Markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also
been very active in deregulation. In January 1982, the CFTC eliminated the 03 report, which had obligated large traders in future contracts to report their market positions daily to the CFTC. This action
reduced the filing costs of these large traders by around 50 percent.
In an effort to lessen the burden of Federal regulation on the futures
industry, the CFTC's new legislation eases the disclosure, registration, and rule approval process.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR FURTHER DEREGULATION IN THE FINANCIAL
INDUSTRY
While the financial and securities markets of today operate relatively unencumbered by unnecessary regulations, owing to the deregulatory advances discussed above, several opportunities for further deregulation remain.
Geographic Restrictions in Banking
Federal laws, such as the McFadden Act of 1927 and the Douglas
Amendment to the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956, continue to
impose geographic restrictions on commercial banking activities. The
former law subjects the branching activities of national banks to the
limits imposed by the States; the latter law prohibits bank holding
companies from engaging in interstate banking unless given specific
State authorization to do so. Although these prohibitions may reduce
the concentration of financial resources on a national scale, they may
also increase market concentration and lessen competition in local
banking markets.
Moreover, these restrictions are effective only insofar as they affect
the taking of retail deposits. Loan production offices, Edge Act corporations, personal finance companies, mortgage lending companies,
and bank holding companies have long been the means used by
banks to conduct wholesale and retail business on an interstate basis.
With the emergence of automatic teller machine networks, the electronic revolution is incorporating even retail deposit-taking into
large-scale operations. This process would be enhanced by exempting automatic teller machines from the existing restrictions on the establishment of branch offices. It is time to reconsider these geographic restrictions because they are probably not in the best interests of consumers or the more efficient financial institutions.
121
Portfolio Restrictions in Banking
The prohibitions of the Glass-Steagall Act have been eroded in
recent years as both banking organizations and securities firms have
attempted, either directly or indirectly, to enter each others' traditional lines of business. Moreover, Glass-Steagall now makes no important contribution to the protection of the public against bank failure or undue concentrations of economic power. Other government
measures, such as Federal deposit insurance and broadened and
strengthened Federal supervision, appear to have been more effective
in that role. The Administration has proposed an amendment to the
Glass-Steagall Act that would authorize bank holding company subsidiaries to conduct two new activities immediately: (1) to underwrite
and deal in municipal revenue bonds, and (2) to sponsor and underwrite shares of mutual funds. The Garn-St Germain Act authorizes a
new account at banks and thrifts that is directly competitive with
money market mutual funds. However, the act does not provide for
the operation and sale of shares in mutual funds or the underwriting
of municipal revenue bonds. Moreover, the act also extends the longstanding protection of insurance companies against bank competition.
Margin Requirements
Margin requirements presently exist in the stock, options, and futures markets. In futures trading, the margin is a performance bond
intended to protect other participants from the consequences of a
failure to make good on a contractual obligation. Each futures exchange determines the margin without Federal regulation or oversight. In stock and options exchanges, the Federal Reserve Board
sets initial margin requirements, and the exchanges set maintenance
margins subject to SEC oversight. Margin practices in the stock and
options markets may be less efficient than in futures markets, since
regulation constrains decisionmaking by participants. It is now appropriate to review these regulations.
CONCLUSIONS
Federal regulation of price and entry are products of an earlier era,
when both economic conditions and perceptions of economic problems were very different than they are today. Federal regulation of
railroads began nearly a century ago, when there was no significant
competition from other transport modes and political debate reflected strong populist sentiment. Most other Federal economic regulations date from the 1930s, when the severe economic problems, now
believed to be due to a collapse in aggregate demand, were per-
122
ceived to be a consequence of excessive competition. The present
structure of Federal regulation of the energy markets dates from the
1970s and primarily reflects an attempt to protect consumers from
the effects of the large increase in oil prices originating abroad.
These policies may or may not have been appropriate to the
period in which they were initiated. But both conditions and perceptions are now very different. Increasing demand and changing technology have substantially reduced the initial monopoly power of
many regulated firms. Our perceptions have also changed, largely in
response to developing conditions during the long history of regulation and the encouraging developments during the more recent
period of partial deregulation. There is now a more general perception that the developments in regulated markets have largely outrun
the present structure of economic regulation.
As we approach the 100th anniversary of the first broad body of
Federal economic regulation, it is time for a comprehensive review of
whether this form of regulation serves the interests of the contemporary economy. A resolution of this issue would then permit greater
attention to the different and more complex issues affecting the
recent Federal regulation of health, safety, and environmental conditions.
123
CHAPTER 6
Review of 1982 and the
Economic Outlook
FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY, 1982 was a year of painful transition
toward price stability. The momentum of high inflation, built up over
the last 15 years, was broken and inflation was reduced to its lowest
rate in a decade. Success in reducing inflation, however, was accompanied by a recession that began in mid-1981 and lingered through
1982. A drop in real exports, along with inventory adjustments, accounted for the decline in U.S. production. Despite the recession,
final sales to domestic purchasers increased. Expenditures for some
interest-sensitive goods, such as housing and consumer durable
goods, registered their first rise in recent years.
Economic developments in 1982 clearly set the stage for a recovery
in 1983. The sizable slowdown in inflation contributed to the sharp
drop in interest rates in the summer of 1982. The inventory cycle
that held down production in 1982 is expected to turn around sometime in 1983. This development, combined with recovery in housing
and durable consumer goods and continuing gains in defense spending, is expected to bring a moderate sustainable economic recovery.
Prospects are good that this recovery can be maintained through the
1980s without reigniting inflationary pressures.
OVERVIEW OF 1982
Real gross national product (GNP) in 1982 was no higher than in
1979. After a surge of economic growth in 1978, the economy stalled
in 1979. Cyclically volatile types of spending, such as auto sales and
housing starts, had peaked in 1978. Since 1978 the output of goods
and services in the United States has followed a saw-tooth pattern of
alternating periods of growth and decline. The recessions of 1980
and 1981-82 bracketed the shortest economic expansion in 50 years.
Employment in 1982 was below its 1979 level.
Production and employment remained sluggish for 4 years while
supplies of labor and capital continued to grow, so that by the end of
1982 the unemployment rate rose to nearly 11 percent—its highest
level since the early 1940s—and the capacity utilization rate fell to its
124
lowest point in the post-World War II period. With this high level of
unused economic capacity, inflationary pressures subsided.
The inflation rate fell dramatically in 1982 to its lowest level in a
decade. The upward trend in inflation from 1976 through 1980
strengthened the Federal Reserve's determination to slow the growth
in the monetary aggregates and contributed to high interest rates for
an extended period. By mid-1982, when evidence of progress against
inflation and continued weakness in economic activity became clear,
interest rates began to fall sharply. The ensuing decline reduced interest rates to their lowest levels in more than 2 years, as illustrated
in Chart 6-1.
Chart 6 - 1
Interest Rates
PERCENT PER YEAR
22
20
PRIME RATE
18
16
14
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS
OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
The decline in interest rates brought much-needed relief to the interest-sensitive, cyclical sectors of the economy. By the end of 1982,
clear progress toward recovery had been made, as reflected in continuing gains in the composite index of leading indicators of economic activity, as shown in Chart 6-2.
125
Chart 6-2
Index of Leading Indicators and Real GNP
1967-100
145
BILLIONS OF 1972 DOLLARS
1,520
REALGNP
(RIGHT SCALE}
1,500
140
1,480
135
1,460
130
1,440
INDEX OF LEADING
INDICATORS
(LEFT SCALE)
t
mm
1,420
125
1,400
120
I
I
I
I
1978
I
I
1979
I
1980
I
I
I
I
I
1981
I
I
I
1982
In
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
MAJOR SECTORS OF AGGREGATE DEMAND
Real output declined 1.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 1981
to the fourth quarter of 1982. This was the fourth consecutive year of
little change in economic activity (Table 6-1). Businesses liquidated
inventories in 1982, in contrast to the previous year when inventory
levels increased. Another important factor in the decline was a sharp
drop in U.S. exports that reflected both the strong dollar and the
worldwide recession. Real final sales to domestic purchasers increased 1.3 percent in 1982, the largest increase in 3 years. Gains in
personal consumption expenditures, residential investment, and Federal purchases dominated a large decline in business capital spend-
126
ing. Partly in response to the drop in interest rates, residential investment increased for the first time in 5 years, and consumer purchases
of durable goods increased for the first time since 1978. State and
local government purchases of goods and services were virtually unchanged over the year.
T A B L E 6-L—Growth in major sectors of real GNP,
1978-82
[Change^ fourth quarter to fourth quarter and 5-year average]
Component
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 *
5-year
average'
Percent change:
Real gross national product
5.8
1.4
-0.7
4.4
5.7
2.1
-2.5
.3
-4.6
12.8
—2
2.3
3.5
-8.3
1.3
-2.6
-.12.7
.7
2.6
3.4
1.0
3.0
1.4
5.4
4.7
Personal consumption expenditures
Consumer durables
Business fixed investment
Residential fixed investment
Government purchases of goods and services
5.1
11.2
Federal
Defense
State and local
Real final sales
Real final sales to domestic purchasers 3
0.7
-1.2
1,5
2.6
6.5
2.1
.1
4.7
-19.4
2.9
-8.4
4.5
2.6
3.3
-8.0
1.6
1.4
2.1
.3
10.7
9.3
-1.7
6.6
6.8
.1
2.9
3.8
.7
2.6
1.7
-.4
-.5
.0
.6
.3
1.3
1.8
1.7
-17.5
14.9
-3.9
1.4
11.0
-9.1
-22.5
-15.4
-4.4
1.7
Change in billions of 1972 dollars:
Change in business .inventories
Net exports of goods and services
'Preliminary.
2
Based on annual data.
9
Final sales less exports plus imports.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Despite declines in production, employment, and real wage and
salary income, real disposable (after-tax) personal income increased
in 1982, due in part to the reduction in personal income tax rates
and an increase in transfer payments. The average effective Federal
personal income tax rate fell from 12.5 percent to 11.4 percent between the third quarters of 1981 and 1982. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.6 percent in 1982 to reach their highest share of real GNP since 1949. Although real personal saving declined from its high level at the end of 1981, the personal saving rate
in 1982 was higher than in any year since 1976, as shown in Table
6-2.
Consumer purchases of durable goods increased 6.5 percent in
real terms in 1982, the first increase since 1978. The turnaround occurred early in the year, when auto sales rebounded from the depressed level of late 1981. Sales then languished until late in the
year, when they again climbed, due in part to the decline in interest
rates that produced lower financing costs. Nevertheless, domestic
127
TABLE 6-2.—Real household income, consumption, saving, and residential investment, 1978-82
[Percent change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter and 5-year average]
1978
Item
1979
1980
1981
1982 »
5-year
average 1 *
Income by type:
Labor Income 3 .....
Other income *
Net transfer payments'..,
0.9
8.8
4.7
8.9
-3.0
4.9
Less.- Federal tax payments
Other tax and nontax payments*
Disposable personal income
2.0
2.5
10.9
5.4
Personal Income
1.2
3.5
4.3
5.6
1.8
1.8
3.6
-0.4
-1.0
13.1
-1.9
1U
1.6
4.6
3.9
2.4
= 5.5
3.5
3.6
3.1
2.3
4.0
Personal saving rate T
2.6
.6
2.1
.3
.3
2.6
2.1
-5.3
Personal saving
1.5
4.4
Personal consumption expenditures...
-11.4
9.3
39.8
-22.7
4.1
5.8
61
6.4
6.5
6.1
-23.1
-4.3
-42.3
44.5
-11.6
-3.3
Single family
5.9
-1.7
Housing starts 8
-29.2
=7.9
-5.2
-2.5
-45.0
-37.3
48.0
38.9
-14.4
-5.3
2.3
Muftifamily
-7.5
-9.8
-6.7
-13.1
12.1
-2.8
-.2
Mobile home shipments'
-8.3
-12.7
-19.4
4.5
=8.0
Residential investment....
'Preliminary.
'Based on annual data.
3
Wage and salary disbursements and other labor income.
•Proprietors' income, rental income, personal dividend income, and personal interest income.
"Transfer payments less personal contributions for social insurance.
'State and local tax and nontax payments plus Federal nontax payments.
7
Annual average.
•Units.
Note.—Income items, consumption, and saving deflated by the personal consumption deflator; residential investment deflated
by the residential deflator.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census) and Council of Economic Advisers.
auto sales in 1982 for the entire year were lower than in any year
since the early 1960s.
The extended period of weakness in durable goods sales accompanied a reduction in the burden of consumer debt. Consumer installment debt repayments relative to disposable personal income fell
steadily from their 1978 peak to reach, by the third quarter of 1982,
their lowest level since 1964, as illustrated in Chart 6-3. Total household debt has also fallen sharply relative to households' net worth.
RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT
As indicated in Table 6-2,1982 showed the first rise in housing activity
in 5 years. By the fourth quarter of 1982, housing starts rose to 1.25
million at an annual rate, up nearly 45 percent from their trough of
865,000 units in the fourth quarter of 1981. Starts averaged less than one
million units until mid-1982 as interest rates on mortgage commitments
stayed around 17 percent. In August, mortgage interest rates began
to fall, dropping below 14 percent by year-end. This drop encour-
128
Chart 6-3
Ratio of Consumer Installment
Credit to Personal Income
RATIO (PERCENT)
15.0
14.5
-
14.0
-
13.5
"
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,
aged the sale of houses, reduced the inventory of unsold new houses
relative to current sales, and spurred new construction.
For the first time in recent years, house prices increased at a
slower rate than general inflation. Moreover, the conventional measures of house price increases, which rose less than 3 percent, may
well have overstated the 1982 rise because increased builder and
seller financing at below market rates is not fully captured in the
price data. Lower interest costs and more moderate house price increases helped to hold down mortgage payments and, thus, may
favor a recovery in housing investment.
BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT
Real business fixed investment peaked in the last quarter of 1981,
having grown at a 5.2 percent annual rate from 1977 to 1981. From
129
its 1981 peak to the last quarter of 1982, real business fixed investment dropped 8.4 percent.
The 1982 decline in capital spending was broadly based, affecting
even sectors that had fared well in previous years. Industrial and
commercial construction declined about 1 percent in real terms from
the fourth quarter of 1981 to the fourth quarter of 1982 having
grown at an annual rate of more than 10 percent from 1977 to 1981.
Computer, communications, and instrumentation equipment investment fell about 4 percent in 1982, a sharp contrast to over 9 percent
annual rate of real growth from 1977 to 1981.
In the energy area, real investment in coal mine development continued to rise strongly in 1982. Real investment in oil field exploration and development dropped 15 percent between the fourth quarters of 1981 and 1982 as weak oil prices impaired cash flow in the
petroleum industry. Reflecting the weakness in overall economic
growth, investment in transportation equipment—autos, trucks, aircraft, ships, boats, and railroad equipment—continued to decline in
1982.
Business capital spending is likely to lag behind the recovery in the
economy. Contracts and orders for new plant and equipment declined about 12 percent in real terms between the last quarters of
1981 and 1982. In addition, a Department of Commerce survey of
business spending plans indicated that real nonfarm investment will
decline about 5.2 percent in 1983.
INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Sluggish sales and high carrying costs encouraged business
to pare inventories in 1982. A sharp drop in final sales in late
1981 triggered a swing to inventory liquidation in the first half of
1982. Even the more moderate sales forecasts for the second half of
1982 proved overly optimistic, and inventory-sales ratios climbed,
prompting further cutbacks in production, employment, and inventories (Chart 6-4). Toward the end of the year, inventories were
brought more in line with sales. Auto inventories, which accounted
for about one-third of inventory liquidation in the final quarter of
1982, were especially lean, as the industry's aggressive pricing and
marketing efforts helped to increase sales.
THE FARM ECONOMY
Total income per farm family in 1982 fell about 11 percent in real
terms. Over two-thirds of farm family earnings came from off-farm
sources as income from farm sources declined.
Net farm nominal income from farm operations declined from $25
billion in 1981 to about $19 billion in 1982. Relatively tight meat
130
Chart 6 - 4
Real Inventory/Sales Ratio
and Industrial Production
RATIO
1967=100
160
1.85
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION,
MANUFACTURING
1.75 -
A
#
*
#
f
1
L
0
»
#
1 A
1
Wl
»\
• \
I •
m»
mm
1.65 —
A
ATv\/
,A A/
\
A
\A
/
TVrVy
\A
V
¥
t
1*
fa
II
• • \\
• •
1/ If
1 '
'\
/
/
<«'
//
/ *-' Vr
\
(LEFT SCALE)
¥
II
- 145
I
'
•
•
'' .*
—
—
140
<\ .
REAL INVENTORY/SALES RATIO,
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE
U *
— 150
1 //
1
1 /
I •
/ /• •
// •
•
•
\l1 •
V
\
1 •
1 •
t
f
-MA /
if v\ /
1
•
•
1
I ••
I •
1 •
*
•
•
t•
• /^ 1 1
1 •
!•
*
1.60
*
•-'
•'
•A
9
- 155
.
•
•
#
1.70 -
A
(RIGHT SCALE)
1.80 -
• * «
•
,- 135
/
1.55
I I I !
ll 1 1
1 1 ill
1978
II
1 i l l
1979
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
130
1980
1981
1982
SOURCES. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS
OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
supplies and low feed prices in 1982 contributed to larger profit margins for most livestock producers. Many crop farmers, on the other
hand, were hard hit by lower prices and increased production costs.
Large domestic crops were only one of several factors contributing to
lower prices. Livestock production declined, and domestic use of
feedgrains and meals increased slowly. The value of agricultural exports in fiscal 1982 fell about 11 percent, primarily because of lower
prices and reduced shipments of corn and grain sorghum. The weak
export market reflected the world recession, a strong dollar, and an
increase in world grain stocks. The U.S. share of world grain stocks
is expected to continue its rapid growth of recent years and to reach
over 50 percent in the 1982-83 crop year.
131
Lower crop prices, high mortgage rates, and lower inflation were
the major factors leading to a decline in land values. Farm liabilities
continued to increase and farmers' debt-to-asset ratio is estimated to
have increased to about 20 percent, a significant rise from the 15 to
17 percent range typical of the late 1960s and 1970s.
U.S. agricultural policies have once again become a major factor in
determining farm prices and incomes. Federal budget outlays for
commodity price support and related programs soared to $12 billion
in fiscal 1982 from $4 billion in the previous fiscal year. A program
of voluntary acreage controls, including payments to those who restrict production in the 1983-84 crop year, was adopted in 1982 and
supplemented by the addition of the "payment-in-kind" option in
early 1983.
Food prices rose about 4 percent in 1982, with marketing costs
rising at more than twice the rate of the farm value component of
food prices.
FOREIGN TRADE
A reduction in U.S. trade was a key factor in the decline in aggregate demand in 1982. The main causes of the decline in net exports
were the strength of the dollar and the worldwide recession. In December 1982 the trade-weighted value of the dollar was about 40
percent above its low point in 1980. Because exchange-rate appreciation lowers import prices and affects trade volume with a substantial
lag, it initially tends to improve the trade balance. By the second half
of 1982, however, the reduced cost competitiveness of U.S. firms
began to overwhelm the short-term positive factors.
A secondary cause of the deteriorating trade balance was the international debt problem. Some heavily indebted developing countries,
especially in Latin America, experienced difficulty in attracting capital
inflows and were forced to cut imports sharply in 1982. Because several of the major high-debt developing countries have close trading
ties with the United States, a large proportion of the import cuts
came out of U.S. exports.
Cyclical factors had conflicting effects on the trade balance in
1982. On one side, the recession in the United States tended to
reduce import demand, so that import volume fell more than 4 percent. On the other side, the recession in other industrial countries
contributed to the 13 percent decline in real U.S. exports.
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Real Federal, State, and local government purchases of goods and
services increased 2.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 1981 to the
fourth quarter of 1982. Much of the increase was attributable to a 6.8
132
percent increase in real defense purchases. Federal nondefense purchases rose in real terms, due to a large increase in real purchases of
agricultural commodities by the Commodity Credit Corporation.
State and local government purchases were virtually flat.
LABOR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
Along with output, employment declined 1 percent in 1982, as
shown in Table 6-3. At the end of the year, employment was 1.7
million persons below the peak level reached in the second quarter
of 1981. The reduction in employment predominantly occurred
among production workers and other blue-collar employees. Sales,
clerical, and service workers' employment did not peak until September 1982.
TABLE 6-3.—Labor market developments, 1978-82
[Fourth quarter of indicated year]
1978
Component
| 1979 | 1980 | 1981 | 1982
Percent change from year earlier1
3.8
2.3
Males 20 years and over
Females 20 years and over..
Both sexes 16-19 years
2.7
5.6
2.7
1.5
4.0
-.8
-.6
1.6
-6.6
.2
2.8
-8.9
-1.5
.7
-8.0
White
Black and other...
3.3
7.3
2.2
3.3
-.1
-.6
.6
-.1
-1.2
.4
5.9
5.9
8.3
10.7
Change in civilian employment....
-0.2
0.6
-1.0
Percent 2
Unemployment rate 3 .
7.4
Males 20 years and over
Females 20 years and over..
Both sexes 16-19 years
4.1
5.8
16.4
4.4
5.7
16.3
6.2
6.7
18.3
7.1
7.2
21.2
10.0
9.0
24.3
White
Black and other..,
5.1
11.5
5.2
11.2
6.5
13.7
7.3
15.3
9.5
18.6
Participation rate4.....
63.5
63.8
63.7
63.8
64.1
Males 20 years and over
Females 20 years and over..
Both sexes 16-19 years
79.8
50.1
58.2
79.6
51.0
57.9
79.2
51.5
56.3
78.8
52.3
54.6
78.8
52.9
54.1
White
Black and other..
63.6
62.4
64.0
62.3
64.0
61.8
64.2
61.4
64.5
62.0
1
1978 data adjusted to reflect changes in sample and estimation procedures, which increased employment and labor force by
250,000 in January 1978.
2
Seasonally adjusted.
3
Unemployed as percent of civilian labor force.
* Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.
Note.—Data relate to persons 16 years and over.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Generally speaking, the older the age cohort, the lower the unemployment rate. For example, the unemployment rate for the 55 and
over age group was 5.7 percent in the final quarter of 1982. Young
workers experienced the highest unemployment rate. Employment of
the 16 to 19 year age group has dropped in every year since 1979.
This decline was far faster than the decline in the number of persons
133
in this age group. Women workers now have somewhat lower unemployment rates than men, a reversal of the historical relation.
The labor force participation rate—the ratio of the labor force to
the population over 16 years of age—has experienced a modest
upward drift as women workers continue to join the labor force. The
growth in adult women's labor force participation has been strong in
the past. Declining participation has occurred among workers less
than 20 years of age and among workers, especially males, over 55—
who are likely to have an income cushion provided by social security,
private pension plans, and savings.
WAGES, PRODUCTIVITY, AND PRICES
In response to slack labor markets and lower rates of price inflation, wage increases slowed substantially in 1982. As shown in Table
6-4, the rate of increase in several measures of wages and compensation declined about 2 percentage points from 1981. The 5.9 percent
increase in the hourly earnings index for private nonfarm workers
was the smallest since 1973. As measured by the employment cost
index, wages and salaries of private industry workers increased 6.9
percent between the third quarters of 1981 and 1982. The deceleration was about the same for union and nonunion workers. A survey
of major collective bargaining settlements reached in private industry
showed that in the first 9 months of 1982 the agreements provided
wage adjustments that averaged 3.8 percent in the first contract year,
exclusive of cost-of-living adjustments, compared with 8.3 percent
when the same parties last bargained. Total labor compensation in
the nonfarm business sector increased 6.7 percent, compared with
TABLE 6-4.—Changes in wages and compensation, 1978-82
[Percent change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter and 5-year average]
Measure
1979
1980
1981
1982*
5-year
average1*
Adjusted hourly earnings index3.
8.4
8.0
9.6
8.4
5.9
Employment cost index *
7.7
8.7
9.0
8.8
•6.9
8.1
Union workers
Nonunion workers.
Nonfarm business sector:*
8.0
7.6
9.0
8.5
10.9
8.0
9.6
8.5
5
6
7.4
6.6
8.8
7.8
9.0
.0
9.4
-2.9
10.6
-1.7
8.8
6.6
2.0
9.C
Compensation per hour
Real compensation per hour..
8.2
'Preliminary.
* Based on annual data.
'Private nonfarm employees.
4
Wages and salaries, private nonfarm industry workers.
•Third quarter 1981 to third quarter 1982.
'All persons.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics), and
Council of Economic Advisers.
134
8.8 percent in 1981. These declines in wage inflation provide a basis
for expecting that recent reductions in price inflation may be sustained.
Real compensation per hour rose 2.0 percent in 1982 as pay increased more rapidly than consumer prices. This was the first rise in
this series since early 1978 and suggests that the historic trend of
rising real wages and family incomes may resume.
Even though output declined for the third straight year, as shown
in Table 6-5, labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector experienced its first substantial improvement since 1977. Lower rates of
increase in hourly compensation and higher productivity growth together resulted in labor costs per unit of output increasing only 4.6
percent. This was less than half the rate of increase recorded in
1980, when labor productivity was weaker and hourly compensation
rose at double-digit rates. The 4.6 percent increase in unit labor
costs was associated with a rise of 4.3 percent in the nonfarm business sector price deflator.
TABLE 6-5.—Productivity, costs, and prices in the nonfarm business sector, 1978-82
[Percent change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter and 5-year average]
Item
1978
Output
1979
5.6
Output per hour
.3
Compensation per hour..
9.0
Unit tabor cost
8.6
Implicit price deflator
8.2
1
0.2
-1.9
9.4
11.6
8.5
1981
1980
-0.6
.3
10.6
1982 >
-0.2
-1.7
-.1
8.8
5-year
average 1 2
1.2
1.9
.0
6.6
9.0
10.2
8.9
4.6
9.0
10.7
9.6
4.3
8.3
Preliminary.
2
Based on annual data.
Note.—Data relate to alt persons.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
By all other measures as well, the rate of inflation declined significantly in 1982, as shown in Table 6-6. After increasing at doubledigit rates in 1980 and by nearly 9 percent in 1981, the broadest
measures of inflation—the GNP fixed-weight price index and the
GNP implicit price deflator—increased nearly 5 percent in 1982. The
all-urban consumer price index increased 4.5 percent, the slowest
rate since 1972. Even when food and energy prices, which were especially weak, are excluded, consumer prices increased about 5 percent.
Beginning in 1983, the homeownership component of the consumer price index for all-urban consumers will be computed on a rental
equivalence basis. On this conceptual basis, consumer prices increased about 5 percent in 1982.
Producer prices of finished goods increased only 3.6 percent in
1982, about the same as in 1972 and 1976. Price increases for both
consumer finished goods and capital equipment showed a marked
deceleration.
135
T A B L E 6 - 6 . — / V i r e changes,
1978-82
[Percent change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter and 5-year average]
Item
1978
1980
1979
1981
1982'
5-year
average l
GNP price measures:
Fixed-weighted index..
Implicit deflator
8.9
8.5
9.3
8.2
10.3
10.2
8.9
8.9
5.0
4.6
8.6
8.2
9.0
8.5
12.7
10.7
12.6
12.2
9.6
10.2
4.5
5.2
9.8
9.4
8.7
9.0
7.8
12.7
13.9
8.8
12.4
12.6
11.7
7.2
6.8
9.1
3.6
3.4
4.2
9.1
9.2
8.7
Consumer prices:'
All items
All items less food and energy...
Producer prices—finished goods:
Total..
Consumer goods
Capital equipment..
1
Preliminary.
1
Based on annual
8
data.
All urban consumers.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
CREDIT MARKETS
During the first three quarters of 1982 the total amount of funds
raised in U.S. credit markets averaged slightly more, at an annual
rate, than the volume raised in 1981. As shown in Table 6-7, over
the last 5 years the volume of funds raised by the nonfinancial sector
has dropped from 18.6 percent to 13.6 percent of nominal GNP, a
return to the cyclical lows recorded in 1974 and 1975.
TABLE 6-7.—Funds raised by the nonfinancial sector of the economy, 1978-82
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Sector
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 •
413.7
401.7
402.0
397.1
406.9
Households
169.3
176.5
117.5
120.4
87.0
Business........
126.3
146.9
143.9
149.5
139.1
Total funds raised
Federal Government
53.7
37.4
79.2
87.4
139.1
State and local government...
19.1
20.2
27.3
22,3
37.2
Foreign
33.2
21.0
29.3
27.3
11.1
18.6
16.6
15.1
13.9
13.6
Funds raised as percent of GNP....
'Average of first three quarters at seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Note.—Detail may not add to total due to rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Different sectors of the credit market experienced widely different
trends in 1982. High interest rates1 in the first half of the year and
sluggish disposable income contributed to reduced borrowing for
136
housing. Borrowing by the nonfinancial business sector also declined
during the first three quarters of 1982. However, the easing of credit
conditions in late summer encouraged an expansion in net corporate
bond issues; the funds raised were used in part to pay off short-term
debt.
Combined borrowing of State and local governments and the Federal Government rose approximately 60 percent in the first three
quarters of 1982 from 1981 levels, as the growth of tax receipts
slowed sharply relative to expenditures. For fiscal 1982, U.S. Treasury borrowing totaled $135.0 billion, of which $23.4 billion was used
for making direct loans. Federally guaranteed loans declined sharply
from 1981 levels, but borrowing by federally sponsored enterprises
surged. Total Federal and federally assisted borrowing climbed to
48.9 percent of the funds raised in U.S. credit markets, surpassing
the previous peacetime peak of 41 percent reached in 1976.
INTEREST RATES
As shown in Chart 6-1, interest rates rose in the first part of 1982
but began to, decline sharply in the summer. The decline in interest
rates partly reflected diminishing inflationary expectations that tend
to be built into nominal interest rates.
The yield on 3-month Treasury bills, which had averaged just
under 11 percent late in 1981, held in the 12 to 13 percent range
until mid-1982 and then fell to less than 8 percent in the closing
months of the year. The prime rate charged by commercial banks
began the year at 15% percent, climbed to 17 percent in February,
and then in July began a steady fall to 11^ percent by December.
The corporate Aaa bond rate, which peaked at 1534 percent in February, fell below 12 percent by November.
The expected real after-tax interest rate is the correct measure of
the cost of credit to borrowers and lenders. It is approximately equal
to the after-tax nominal interest rate less the anticipated rate of inflation. For example, with a 12 percent nominal interest rate, the aftertax cost of credit to a borrower in the 30 percent marginal tax bracket is 8.4 percent. If a 5 percent inflation rate is anticipated, the expected real after-tax cost of credit is 3.2 percent.
Because the tax brackets of borrowers differ widely and the expected rate of inflation cannot be observed directly, the realized real
pretax interest rate—-approximated by the nominal interest rate less
the actual rate of inflation—is a more convenient measure of the cost
of credit. The nominal 3-month Treasury bill rate and the corresponding realized real pretax rate are shown in Chart 6-5 for the
period since 1955. The real pretax Treasury bill rate was abnormally
low in 1972-73 and 1976-77, tending to increase aggregate demand.
137
It then moved to relatively high levels from 1980 through the first
half of 1982, tending to reduce aggregate demand. By the end of
1982, however, the real pretax Treasury bill rate had fallen to about
the same level as its highs in the 1950s and 1960s.
Chart 6-5
Nominal and Real 3-Month Treasury Bill Yield
PERCENT
15
-
10 ~
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
'CONVERTED TO EFFECTIVE ANNUAL YIELD FROM DISCOUNT BASIS.
^EQUALS NOMINAL YIELD LESS ACTUAL RATE OF INFLATION, DEFINED BY PERSONAL
CONSUMPTION DEFLATOR, OVER THE PERIOD TO MATURITY. DEFLATOR FOR FIRST
QUARTER 1983 FORECAST BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
SYSTEM, AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
The sharp run-up and subsequent decline in real pretax rates
during the 1980-82 period probably reflect in part the adjustment of
credit markets to the decontrol of interest rates. During the late
1970s variable interest rate time and savings accounts were introduced by depository institutions, and the process of financial innovation speeded up the movement of funds out of regulated, fixed-rate
accounts. In addition, the consumer has recently become a more vig-
138
orous competitor for credit as usury laws have been eliminated. As a
result, the financial system now relies less on nonprice rationing of
credit and may exhibit higher interest rates when credit is tight.
Even though real short-term rates have returned more nearly to
the levels of the 1950s and 1960s, the equilibrium level of both longand short-term rates may now be somewhat higher than before. To
the extent that the accelerated cost recovery system in the Economic
Recovery Tax Act of 1981 reduced the tax on earnings of depreciable property, it raised the real interest rate that business borrowers
are willing to pay. In addition, large budget deficits in many countries have lowered national saving rates, tending to lead to higher
real interest rates worldwide.
At the end of-1982, long-term interest rates were considerably
higher than short-term interest rates, perhaps reflecting the concern
that-the inflation rate may be higher in the future than at present. To
the extent that these inflationary expectations decline, further declines in nominal long-term interest rates can be anticipated.
MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
The Administration's economic program includes support for a
policy of gradual reduction in the rate of monetary growth in order
to bring down inflation. Consistent with this policy, the Federal Reserve reduced the Ml target growth rate range from 3.5 to 6 percent
in 1981 to 2.5 to 5.5 percent in 1982. The target range for M2
growth was kept at 6 to 9 percent.
In its February 1982 review of the tentative target ranges for 1982,
established in July 1981, the Federal Open Market Committee recognized that the rapid increase of Ml in December 1981 and January
1982 had already placed it well above the top of its target range.
Judging that the rapid money growth was temporary and that no
basic change in the relation between the monetary aggregates and
nominal GNP had occurred, the committee reaffirmed the tentative
targets for 1982.
Consequently, the Federal Reserve slowed the growth of nonborrowed reserves during the first half of the year, with a view to gradually bringing Ml and M2 back into their target ranges. By June, Ml
was within its target range, while M2 remained somewhat above the
top of its range. Because Ml had shown virtually no growth since
January, resumption of growth implied a step-up in the provision of
bank reserves. After midyear, continued weakness in the economy,
and a more ample supply of reserves and money contributed to a
sharp drop in short-term interest rates. The 3-month Treasury bill
rate fell from about 12 percent in July to 9 percent in August. A
series of reductions in the Federal Reserve's discount rate followed,
139
maintaining its alignment with short-term market rates and preventing sharp changes in the incentive for banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve.
Starting in August, Ml growth began to speed up. By the fourth
quarter of 1982, Ml had risen 8.5 percent above its level in the
fourth quarter of 1981, well above the upper end of the 1982 target
range. Over the same period, M2 increased 9.8 percent, slightly more
than the top of its target range. These increases in the monetary aggregates occurred against the background of an economy that was
still in recession.
Part of the strength in Ml may be attributable to the effects of a
large volume of All-Savers Certificates maturing in the fourth quarter
of 1982, as the maturing funds moved through checking accounts or
were temporarily "parked" there. Federal Reserve analysis suggested
that an additional factor was an unusual demand for liquidity. Much
of the increase in Ml was in interest-bearing negotiable order of
withdrawal (NOW) accounts, which provide elements of both savings
and transactions accounts. From the fourth quarter of 1981 to the
fourth quarter of 1982, checkable deposits other than demand deposits grew about 35 percent. With market interest rates falling, these
interest-bearing deposits, such as NOW accounts, provided a safe
and convenient store of liquidity at a time of economic and financial
uncertainty. Increased liquidity demand may also account for the
above-target growth of M2.
As discussed in Chapter 1, the behavior of the "income velocity"
measures—the ratios of GNP to the various monetary aggregates—
was unusual in 1982. The velocity of Ml rose 3.2 percent a year on
average over the 20 years ending in 1981, but in 1982 it declined 4.9
percent. While a tendency toward slower velocity is not unusual in
the midst of a recession when interest rates generally are falling, the
only other fourth quarter to fourth quarter decline in Ml velocity
since the beginning of the current series in 1959 was a 0.1 percent
fall in 1967. The velocity of M2, which historically has been relatively
trendless, declined 6.0 percent in 1982; the largest previous decline
was 3.8 percent in 1976. Without some accommodation of monetary
growth—particularly for M1 —to this drop in velocity, monetary
policy would have been more restrictive than had been"intended
when the 1982 targets were established.
The number, size, and rapidity of recent changes in the financial
sector may well have affected the behavior of velocity. As indicated in
Table 6-8, checkable deposits other than ordinary demand deposits
accounted for only 2.3 percent of Ml in December 1978. In December 1980, just before NOW accounts were authorized nationally,
other checkable deposits were 6.5 percent of Ml, but by December
140
1982 their share had risen to over 21 percent. Because these interestbearing deposits may be regarded by their holders in part as savings
rather than solely as transactions balances, the reported growth of
Ml in 1981 and 1982 probably overstates the growth in transactions
balances.
TABLE 6-8.—Components of Ml and M2, 1978-82
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
December
Item
1978
1980
1981
1982 »
97 4
%
1061
1161
1231
132 6
257 4
Currency
Plus* Demand deposits
1979
265 9
2714
240 7
244 6
84
16 9
26 9
77 0
1013
Equals- Ml
363 2
389 0
414 5
440 9
478 5
Plus* Savings deposits3
479 9
4217
398.9
343 6
400 3
533 9
652 6
751.7
854 7
904 2
24.0
26.3
35.0
38.1
45.6
Other checkable deposits
Small time deposits
Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs) and overnight Eurodollars *...
Money market mutual fund balances (excluding institution accounts) *
71
34 4
61.9
1512
177 5
1,403.9
Equals- M2 9
1,518.9
1,656.2
1,822.7
1,999.1
1
Preliminary.
includes travelers checks.
'Includes Money Market Deposit Account introduced December 14, 1982.
4
Not seasonally adjusted.
B
M2 will differ from the sum of components by a consolidation adjustment that represents the estimated amount of demand
deposits and vault cash held by thrift institutions to service time and savings deposits.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
In general, the demand for any particular monetary aggregate—
and hence its income velocity—depends in part on the difference between market rates of interest and the rates earned on the deposits in
that aggregate. Consequently, the increased portion of Ml deposits
that pay interest and the decline in market interest rates have combined to lower Ml velocity.
The rapid growth of general purpose and broker/dealer money
market mutual fund balances, which are included in M2 but not in
Ml, has tended to raise Ml velocity and to lower M2 velocity. From
December 1980 to December 1982 these money market mutual fund
balances grew from $61.9 billion to $177.5 billion, which exceeded
the growth in other checkable deposits by $41.2 billion. Although
most money market mutual fund balances are subject to transfer by
check, the average turnover of these accounts has been relatively low.
Interpretation of the macroeconomic significance of changes in the
monetary aggregates became more difficult in late 1982 when the
Depository Institutions Deregulation Committee authorized two new
accounts. In mid-December, banks and thrift institutions introduced a
Money Market Deposit Account with limited transactions capabilities
and no interest rate ceiling. Within about 2 weeks, these accounts
141
had attracted an astonishing $87 billion. The Depository Institutions
Deregulation Committee also authorized a new super NOW account
effective January 1983, with no transactions limitations and no interest rate ceilings, having the same $2,500 minimum balance as the
Money Market Deposit Account.
Financial deregulation and innovation favorably affect the efficiency of the U.S. financial system but also complicate the implementation of monetary policy. Large asset reallocations caused by changes
in the financial and regulatory system can have large and unpredictable effects on Ml and M2 and on their relations to nominal GNP. In
light of the particular difficulties with regard to Ml, the Federal
Open Market Committee has voted to place greater emphasis on M2
and M3 for an indefinite period. However, the broad framework of
targeting the monetary aggregates has been retained, as have the reserve operating procedures, for implementing it.
PROSPECTS FOR 1983
Assuming that the Administration's 1984 budget proposals are enacted and that the monetary aggregates grow within the Federal Reserve's target ranges, the prospects for a moderate, sustainable economic recovery beginning early in 1983 are good (Table 6-9). As was
true in the early stages of previous recoveries, the unemployment
rate is likely to stabilize for several months before a downward trend
becomes evident. A pattern of reduced inflation in 1982 is expected
to continue in 1983. The sharp rise in the Federal budget deficit reflects reduced receipts because of lower inflation, as well as the effects of the 1981-82 recession.
The expectation of economic recovery is based on the view that
continuing strength in household and defense spending will bring a
turnaround in the inventory cycle. Cuts in production and increases
in sales brought business inventories more in line with sales by the
end of 1982. Future sales gains are thus likely to be met by increases
in production, income, and employment, enhancing sales further.
Once even a moderate but sustained increase in sales is underway,
this sequence of events may lead to a temporary surge of above-average economic growth.
Increases in sales will come primarily from households whose
income will be bolstered by the third stage of the personal income
tax cut, whose debt burden has declined sharply relative to income
and assets, and whose financial assets, in many cases, appreciated in
rallies in the stock and bond markets. With continued moderate increases in food and oil prices, more income will become available for
other consumer purchases. Because outlays on durable consumer
142
TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1983
1
Item
1982 *
2
1983
forecast
Percent change (fourth quarter to fourth quarter):
Real gross national product
-1.2
3.1
2.S
-8.4
4.5
6.6
.1
Personal consumption expenditures.,
Nonresidential fixed investment
Residential investment
Federal purchases
State and local purchases
27*i
1.2
-2.0
2.7
4.6
Level in fourth quarter:
2.2
10.7
10.4
n
Output per hour 2
6.0
1.9
Compensation per hour
2
5.6
6.6
6NP implicit price deflator
1.5
3
Unemployment rate (percent) *
Housing starts (millions of units, annual rate)....
Preliminary.
2
Nonfarm business, all persons.
3
Seasonally adjusted.
4
Actual rate for 1982 is percent of civilian labor force; forecast rate for 1983 is percent of total labor force including persons
in the Armed Forces stationed in the United States.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census), Department of Labor (Bureau of
Labor Statistics), and Council of Economic Advisers.
goods and houses have been depressed for the last 4 years, consumers are expected to devote increases in their income, and perhaps
some of the recent gains in their financial wealth, to replenishing
their holdings of durable goods. The sharp easing of credit terms
and lower house price increases have already encouraged more
households to consider buying houses. This uptrend is expected to
intensify in 1983. New house purchases are invariably followed by a
pickup in expenditures for furniture, appliances, and other housingrelated goods.
The pace of the recovery in 1983 will probably be moderate by historical standards. Low capacity utilization rates and the need to rebuild corporate liquidity will restrain capital spending. The worldwide recession and the lagged effect of the appreciation of the dollar
will curtail the growth of exports. Continued reductions in the nondefense public sector will limit it as a source of increased aggregate
demand.
PROSPECTS AND POLICIES BEYOND 1983
Economic prospects for the rest of the 1980s depend greatly on
the economic policies that are followed. The Administration believes
that the four-point program it has pursued—reducing the growth of
Federal outlays, taxes, regulation, and the money supply—constitutes
the best approach for attaining and maintaining the economic goals
set forth in the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978.
143
The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act calls for annual
numerical goals for several key economic indicators over a 5-year
period. The projections provided in Table 6-10 show gradual, steady
progress toward our economic goals. These figures illustrate the Administration's belief, explained in Chapter 1, that policies based on
consistent, long-term objectives can simultaneously achieve full employment, price stability, and sustained growth in real income. A
major cause of our present economic ills was the inclination in the
past to pursue one economic goal single-mindedly, without adequate
attention to the longer run consequences for other economic objectives. This Administration remains determined to avoid the errors of
past policies.
TABLE 6-10.—Projections of economic goals, 1983-88
[Calendar years, except as noted]
Item
1983
1984
1985 1986
1988
1987
101.5
104.2
107.0
109.6
112.3
10.7
9.9
8.9
8.1
7.3
6.5
25.2
24.3
24.1
23.9
23.5
23.0
Consumer prices 3
4.9
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.4
Real GNP
1.4
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
Level
Employment (millions) 1
"Jnemployment rate (percent) a.
:
ederal budget outlays as percent of GNP (fiscal year basis).
114.9
Percent change
Real compensation per hour *
1.2
.8
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.6
Output per hour *
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.7
1
Labor force series includes persons in the Armed Forces stationed
3
Unemployed as percent of total labor force. See footnote 1.
3
in the United States.
Wage earners and clerical workers.
•Nonfarm business, all persons.
Source: Council of Economic Advisers.
A major prerequisite for achieving our economic goals is control of
inflation. Marked progress toward this end has been made in the last
2 years. With continued moderate growth in the monetary aggregates, increased reliance on the private sector, and increased domestic and international economic competition, the prospects for sustaining and extending the progress against inflation are now quite favorable.
An important factor in achieving and sustaining high real economic
growth is a high level of capital formation. Chapter 4 of this volume,
which fulfills the legislative requirement for an annual Investment
Policy Report, explains that lower inflation and the recently enacted
tax incentives for saving and investment are the important first steps
in fostering capital accumulation. Controlling the Federal deficit is
now the single most important method of encouraging more capital
formation.
144
A critical element in achieving healthy economic growth is maintaining
a liberal worldwide trading system. As explained in detail in Chapter 3,
the world's economies are now more integrated than ever before. This
system has recently experienced severe strains. It is of utmost importance
that these challenges be met in a manner consistent with an open,
growing, balanced network of international trade.
Just as an open worldwide trading system is crucial for the free
world economies, a competitive free market system unfettered by unnecessary government regulation is essential for a strong domestic
economy. As Chapter 5 points out, substantial progress toward reduction of traditional price and entry regulation has been made in
recent years, but further opportunities for deregulation exist.
The year 1983 is expected to be the first of many years of sustained economic growth. Continued economic growth is the only way
to sustain progress in reducing unemployment. But macroeconomic
policies alone cannot reduce structural unemployment and achieve an
acceptable level of employment. Chapter 2 describes some of the
macroeconomic policies that, along with a sustained recovery, are
necessary to achieve noninflationary full employment. These policies are
designed". . . to foster and promote free competitive enterprise . . ."
as mandated in the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act.
One major remaining threat to a sustainable, balanced recovery is
the danger that large Federal budget deficits would preclude the continuing declines in real interest rates that are necessary for healthy
growth in all sectors of the economy. The Administration's 1984
budget provides a plan which can lead to a steady decline in budget
deficits and thus, ultimately, to a balanced Federal budget.
145
Appendix A
REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1982
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,
Washington, D.C., December 31, 1982.
MR. PRESIDENT:
The Council of Economic Advisers submits this report on its activities during the calendar year 1982 in accordance with the requirements of the Congress, as set forth in section 10(d) of the Employment Act of 1946 as amended by the Full Employment and Balanced
Growth Act of 1978.
Sincerely,
MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman
WILLIAM A. NISKANEN
WILLIAM POOLE
149
Council Members and their dates of service are listed below:
Name
Edwin 6. Nourse
Leon H. Keyserling
John D. Clark
Roy Blough
Robert C Turner
Arthur F. Burns
NeilH. Jacoby
Walter W. Stewart
Raymond J. Saulnier
Joseph S. Davis
Paul W McCracken
Karl Brandt
Henry C. Wallich
Walter W. Heller
James Tobin
Kermit Gordon
Gardner Ackley
John P. Lewis
Otto Eckstein
Arthur M Okun
James S. Duesenberry
Merton J. Peck
Warren L Smith
Paul W. McCracken
HendrikS. Houthakker
Herbert Stein
Ezra Solomon
Marina v.N. Whitman
Gary L Seevers
William J Fellner
Alan Greenspan
Paul W. MacAvoy
Burton G Malkiel
Charles L. Schultze
William D. Nordhaus
Lyle E Gramley
George C. Eads
Stephen M. Goldfeld
Murray L Weidenbaum
Jerry L. Jordan
William A. Niskanen
Martin Feldstein
William Poole
Position
Oath of office date
Chairman
Vice Chairman
Acting Chairman
Chairman
Member
Vice Chairman
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member .
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member . .
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
August 9,1946
August 9, 1946
November 2. 1949
May 10, 1950
August 9. 1946
May 10,1950
June 29, 1950
September8, 1952
March 19, 1953
September 15,1953
December 2,1953
April 4, 1955
December 3,1956
May 2,1955
December 3,1956
November 1, 1958
May 7, 1959
January 29, 1961
January 29, 1961
January 29, 1961
August 3, 1962
November 16, 1964
May 17, 1963
September 2, 1964
November 16, 1964
February 15, 1968
February 2,1966
February 15, 1968
July 1, 1968
February 4,1969
February 4,1969
February 4, 1969
January 1,1972
September 9, 1971
March 13,1972
July 23, 1973
October 31, 1973
September 4, 1974
June 13, 1975
July 22, 1975
January 22, 1977
March 18, 1977
March 18,1977
June 6, 1979
August 20, 1980
February 27, 1981
July 14,1981
June 12, 1981
October 14, 1982
December 10, 1982
150
Separation date
November 1, 1949.
January 20, 1953.
February 11,1953.
August 20, 1952.
January 20,1953.
December 1,1956.
February 9, 1955.
April 29, 1955.
January 20,1961.
October 31, 1958.
January 31,1959.
January 20,1961.
January 20,1961.
November 15, 1964.
July 31, 1962.
December 27,1962.
February 15, 1968.
August 31, 1964.
February 1,1966.
January 20. 1969.
June 30, 1968.
January 20, 1969.
January 20, 1969.
December 31, 1971.
July 15, 1971.
August 31, 1974.
March 26,1973.
August 15, 1973.
April 15, 1975.
February 25,1975.
January 20,1977.
November 15,1976.
January 20, 1977.
January 20, 1981.
February 4, 1979.
May 27, 1980.
January 20,1981.
January 20,1981.
August 25, 1982.
July 31, 1982.
Report to the President on the Activities of the
Council of Economic Advisers during 1982
The Employment Act of 1946 (P.L. 304-79th Congress), as amended, provides the statutory base for the activities of the Council of
Economic Advisers. The Council, through the Chairman, provides
advice to the President on a wide range of domestic and international
economic policy issues.
Martin Feldstein became Chairman on October 14, 1982, succeeding Murray L. Weidenbaum, who returned to Washington University
(St. Louis). The Chairman is on leave from Harvard University,
where he is a Professor of Economics. On July 31, 1982, Jerry L.
Jordan resigned to return to the University of New Mexico, where he
is a Professor of Economics at the Anderson Schools of Management.
On December 10, 1982, William Poole became a Member of the
Council. Mr. Poole is on leave from Brown University where he is a
Professor of Economics. William A. Niskanen continued to serve as a
Member.
MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
As is its tradition, during 1982 the Council devoted much of its
time to assisting the President in the formulation of broad economic
policy objectives and the programs to carry them out. The development of economic assumptions and monitoring of current developments, under Council Member Jordan and subsequently Council
Member Poole, were an area of major interest. Monetary policy developments received especially close attention.
Council Member Jordan and later Council Member Poole chaired
the interagency subcabinet "Troika" forecasting group, consisting of
representatives from the Department of the Treasury and the Office
of Management and Budget, with participation by the Department of
Commerce. The Chairman of the Council continued his responsibility for presenting to the President the economic assumptions developed with the Office of Management and Budget and the Department of the Treasury.
Council Members chaired or participated in numerous Cabinet
Council working groups dealing with such issues as economic statistics, Federal credit programs, alternatives to Federal regulation, and
Federal housing programs.
151
The Chairman actively participated during the early months of the
year, and then during the late fall budget cycle, in Cabinet level reviews
of agency budget requests and appeals.
MICROECONOMIC POLICIES
A wide variety of microeconomic issues received Council attention
during the year. Council Member Niskanen chaired Cabinet Council
working groups dealing with employee pension legislation and alternatives to Federal regulation. Trade issues were an area of continuing attention.
The Council assisted in the preparation of agency guidelines for
implementing Executive Order 12291 dealing with Executive Office
review of agency regulatory proposals, and worked closely with the
Office of Management and Budget on selected regulatory issues.
PUBLIC INFORMATION
The Council's Annual Report is the principal medium through which
the Council informs the public of its work and its views. It is also an
important vehicle for presenting and explaining the Administration's
domestic and international economic policies. Distribution of the
Report in recent years has averaged about 50,000 copies. The Council
also assumes primary responsibility for the monthly Economic Indicators, a publication prepared by the Council's Statistical Office, under
the supervision of Catherine H. Furlong. The Joint Economic Committee issues the Indicators, which has a distribution of approximately
10,000 copies. Information is also provided to members of the public
through speeches and other public appearances by the Chairman,
Members, and staff economists of the Council.
ORGANIZATION AND STAFF OF THE COUNCIL
OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN
The Chairman is responsible for communicating the Council's
views to the President. This function is carried out through direct
consultation with the President and through written memoranda and
reports on economic developments and on particular programs and
proposals. The Chairman exercises ultimate responsibility for directing the work of the professional staff. He represents the Council at
meetings of the full Cabinet and the various Cabinet Councils, and
the Trade Policy Committee.
COUNCIL MEMBERS
The two Council Members are responsible for all subject matter
covered by the Council, including direct supervision of the work of
the professional staff. Members represent the Council at a wide vari-
152
ety of interagency and international meetings and assume major responsibility for selecting issues for Council attention.
In practice, the small size of the Council permits the Chairman and
Council Members to work as a team in most circumstances. There
was, however, an informal division of subject matter among them in
1982. Mr. Jordan and subsequently Mr. Poole, assumed primary responsibility for domestic and international macroeconomic analysis,
economic projections, and monetary and financial issues. Mr. Niskanen is primarily responsible for microeconomic and sectoral analysis, international trade questions, and regulatory issues.
PROFESSIONAL STAFF
At the end of 1982 the professional staff consisted of the Special
Assistant to the Chairman, who also acts as staff director, the Senior
Statistician, a domestic policy economist, an international policy
economist, 12 senior staff economists, 3 staff economists, and 6
junior staff economists.
The professional staff and their special fields at the end of 1982
were:
Eric I. Hemel
Special Assistant to the Chairman
Lawrence H. Summers
Domestic Policy Economist
Paul R. Krugman ,
International Policy Economist
Senior Staff Economists
Lincoln F. Anderson
Geoffrey O. Carliner
Daniel J. Frisch
David R. Henderson
Thomas J. Kniesner
Evan R. Kwerel
Thomas S. McCaleb
Stephen K. McNees
Glenn L. Nelson
Adrian W. Throop
Robert S- Villanueva
Benjamin Zycher
Economic Forecasting
International Trade
Taxation and Social Insurance Programs
Health Policy and Social Insurance Programs
Labor and Employment Policy
Regulatory Policies and Natural Resources
Taxation and Public Finance
Macroeconomic Policy
Agricultural Policy
Monetary Policy and Financial Regulation
Current Economic Conditions, Housing, and
Economic Forecasting
Energy Policy and Regulation
Statistician
Catherine H. Furlong
Senior Statistician
Staff Economists
Lawrence B. Lindsey
N. Gregory Mankiw
Robert H. Meyer
Taxation and Public Finance
Macroeconomic Policy and Public Finance
Labor and Employment Policy
153
Junior Staff Economists
Christopher B. Ballinger
John H. Cochrane
John S. Earle
Thomas W. Gilligan
David S. Reitman
Dan C. Roberts
World Trade and International Finance
Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting
Public Finance and Labor Policy
Transportation and Regulatory Policy
Social Insurance Programs and General
Budget Policy
Financial Institutions and Macroeconomic
Policy
Catherine H. Furlong, Senior Statistician, continued to be in
charge of the Council's Statistical Office. Mrs. Furlong has primary
responsibility for managing the Council's statistical information
system. She supervises the publication of Economic Indicators and the
preparation of all statistical matter in the Economic Report. She also
oversees the verification of statistics in memoranda, testimony, and
speeches. Natalie V. Rentfro, Linda A. Reilly, and Barbara L. Sibel
assist Mrs. Furlong.
Serving as consultants during the year were Stephen H. Brooks
(consultant), Jose A. Gomez-Ibanez (Harvard University), and Robert
A. Leone (Harvard University).
In preparing the Economic Report the Council relied upon the editorial services of John Phillip Sawicki.
SUPPORTING STAFF
The Administrative Office of the Council of Economic Advisers
provides general support for the Council's activities. Serving in the
Administrative Office were Elizabeth A. Kaminski, Staff Assistant to
the Council, and Catherine Fibich, Administrative Assistant.
Members of the secretarial staff for the Chairman and Council
Members during 1982 were Patricia A. Lee, Susan A. Lindsey, Georgia A. O'Connor, and Alice H. Williams. Secretaries for the professional staff were Carolyn L. Bazarnick, Bessie M. Lafakis, Rosemary
M. Rogers, Margaret L. Snyder, and Lillie M. Sturniolo.
DEPARTURES
The Council's professional staff are in most cases on leave of absence from universities, other government agencies, or research institutions. Their tenure with the Council is usually limited to 1 or 2
years. Senior staff economists who resigned during the year and their
subsequent affiliations were James B. Burnham (The World Bank),
William D. Dobson (Purdue University), Michele U. Fratianni (Indiana University), Steven H. Hanke (Johns Hopkins University), Laur-
154
ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University), Michael J. McKee (Department of
the Treasury), David C. Munro (General Motors), Susan C. Nelson
(Department of the Treasury), Allen M. Parkman (University of New
Mexico), Paul H. Rubin (Baruch College), and Elinor Y. Sachse (consultant).
Junior economists who resigned in 1982 were Robert G. Murphy
(Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Chris P. Varvares (Washington University, St. Louis), and F. Katharine Warne (Yale University).
155
Appendix B
STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME,
EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION
C O N T E N T S
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE:
Page
B-l.
B-2.
B-3.
B-4.
B-5.
B-6.
B-7.
B-8.
B-9.
B-10.
B-l 1.
B-12.
B-l3.
B-14.
B-15.
B-I6.
B-17.
B-18.
B-l9.
B-20.
B-21.
B-22.
B-23.
B-24.
B-25.
B-26.
B-27.
Gross national product, 1929-82
Gross national product in 1972 dollars, 1929-82
Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-82
Fixed-weighted price indexes for gross national product, 1972
weights, 1959-82
Changes in gross national product and GNP price measures, 192982
Gross national product by major type of product, 1929-82
Gross national product by major type of product in 1972 dollars,
1929-82
Gross national product by sector, 1929-82
Gross national product by sector in 1972 dollars, 1929-82
Gross national product by industry, 1947-81
Gross national product by industry in 1972 dollars, 1947-81
Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business, 192982
Output, costs, and profits of nonfinancial corporate business,
1948-82
Personal consumption expenditures, 1929-82
Gross private domestic investment, 1929-82
Gross and net private domestic investment, 1929-82
Inventories and final sales of business, 1946-82
Inventories and final sales of business in 1972 dollars, 1947-82
Relation of gross national product, net national product, and national income, 1929-82
Relation of national income and personal income, 1929-82
National income by type of income, 1929-82
Sources of personal income, 1929-82
Disposition of personal income, 1929-82
Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures in current and 1972 dollars, 1929-82
Gross saving and investment, 1929-82
Saving by individuals, 1946-82
Number and median income (in 1981 dollars) of families and persons, and poverty status, by race, selected years, 1947-81
163
164
166
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
188
190
191
192
193
194
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY:
B-28.
B-29.
B-30.
B-31.
B-32.
Population by age groups, 1929-82
Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-82
Civilian employment and unemployment by sex and age, 1947-82..
Selected employment and unemployment data, 1948-82
Civilian labor force participation rate by demographic characteristic, 1954-82
159
195
196
198
199
200
B-S3.
B-34.
B-35.
B-36.
B-37.
B-38.
B-39.
B-40.
B-41.
Civilian unemployment rate by demographic characteristic,
1948-82
Unemployment by duration, 1947-82
Unemployment by reason, 1967-82
Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1946-82
Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishment, 192982
Average weekly hours and hourly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1947-82
Average weekly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1947-82
Productivity and related data, business sector, 1947-82
Changes in productivity and related data, business sector, 1948-82.
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
B-42.
B-43.
B-44.
B-45.
B-46.
B-47.
B-48.
Industrial production indexes, major industry divisions, 1929-82....
Industrial production indexes market groupings 1947-82
Industrial production indexes, selected manufactures, 1947-82
Capacity utilization rate in manufacturing, 1948-82
New construction activity, 1929-82
New housing units started and authorized 1959-82
Nonfarm business expenditures for new plant and equipment
1947-83
Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1947-82
Manufacturers' shipments and inventories, 1947-82
Manufacturers' new and unfilled orders, 1947-82
210
211
212
213
214
216
Consumer price indexes, major expenditure classes, 1929-82
Consumer price indexes, selected expenditure classes, 1939-82
Consumer price indexes, commodities, services, and special
groups, 1939-82..
B-55. Changes in consumer price indexes, commodities and services,
1948-82
B-56. Changes in special consumer price indexes, 1958-82
B-57. Producer price indexes by stage of processing, 1947-82
B-58. Producer price indexes by stage of processing, special groups,
1974-82
B-59. Producer price indexes by major commodity groups, 1940-82
B-60. Changes in producer price indexes for finished goods, 1950-82
MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCE:
B-61. Money stock measures and liquid assets, 1959-82
B-62. Components of money stock measures and liquid assets, 1959-82...
B-63. Commercial bank loans and investments, 1939-82
B-64. Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 197482
B-65. Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929-82...
B-66. Aggregate reserves of depository institutions and monetary base,
1959-82
B-67. Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-82
B-68. Consumer credit outstanding and net change, 1950-82
B-69. Consumer installment credit extended and liquidated, 1950-82
221
222
B-49.
B-50.
B-51.
217
218
219
220
PRICES:
B-52.
B-53.
B-54.
160
224
225
226
227
229
230
232
233
234
235
236
238
239
240
242
243
B-70.
B-71.
Mortgage debt outstanding by type of property and of financing,
1939-82
Mortgage debt outstanding by holder, 1939-82
244
245
GOVERNMENT FINANCE:
B-72.
B-73.
B-74.
B-75.
B-76.
B-77.
B-78.
B-79.
B-80.
B-81.
Federal budget receipts, outlays, and debt, fiscal years 1973-84
Federal budget receipts and outlays, off-budget outlays, and debt,
fiscal years 1929-84
Relation of Federal Government receipts and expenditures in the
national income and product accounts to the unified budget,
fiscal years 1982-84
Government receipts and expenditures, national income and product accounts, 1929-82
Federal Government receipts and expenditures, national income
and product accounts, 1958-84
State and local government receipts and expenditures, national
income and product accounts, 1946-82
State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected
fiscal years, 1927-81
Interest-bearing public debt securities by kind of obligation, 196782
Estimated ownership of public debt securities, 1967-82
Maturity distribution average length and of marketable interestbearing public debt securities held by private investors, 1967-82,
246
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE:
B-82.
B-83.
B-84.
B-85.
B-86.
B-87.
B-88.
B-89.
B-90.
B-91.
B-92.
B-93.
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments, 1929-82
Corporate profits by industry, 1929-82
Corporate profits of manufacturing industries, 1929-82
Sales, profits, and stockholders' equity, all manufacturing corporations, 1950-82
Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales,
all manufacturing corporations, 1947-82
Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales,
all manufacturing corporations, by industry group, 1981-82
Determinants of business fixed investment, 1955-82
Sources and uses of funds, nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business, 1946-82
Current assets and liabilities of U.S. corporations, 1939-82
State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-82
Common stock prices and yields, 1949-82
Business formation and business failures, 1929-82
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
AGRICULTURE:
B-94.
B-95.
B-96.
B-97.
B-98.
B-99.
Farm income, 1929-82
Farm output and productivity indexes, 1929-82
Farm input use, selected inputs, 1929-82
Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, 1940-82
U.S. exports and imports of agricultural commodities, 1940-82
Balance sheet of the farming sector, 1929-83
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS:
B-100. Exchange rates, 1967-82
B-101. U.S. international transactions, 1946-82
161
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
B-102. U.S. merchandise exports and imports by principal end-use category, 1965-82
B-103. U.S. merchandise exports and imports by area, 1973-82
B-104. U.S. merchandise exports and imports by commodity groups, 196082
B-105. International investment position of the United States at year-end,
selected years, 1970-81
B-106. World trade: Exports and imports, 1965, 1970, 1975, and 1979-82
B-107. World trade balance and current account balances, 1965, 1970,
1975, and 1979-82
B-108. International reserves, selected years, 1952-82
B-109. Growth rates in real gross national product, 1960-82
B-110. Industrial production and consumer prices, major industrial countries, 1960-82
B 111. Unemployment rate, and hourly compensation, major industrial
—
countries, 1960-82
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary,
Not available (also, not applicable).
162
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE
TABLE B-l.—Gross national product, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Year or quarter
Personal
Gross connational sumpproduct tion
expenditures
Government purchases of goods and
Net exports of goods
services
and services
Gross
private
Federal
domestic Net
State
Non- and
invest- exports Exports Imports Total
Nament
local
Total tional de- defense fense
1929....
103.4
77.3
16.2
1933....
55.8
45.8
1.4
1939....
90.9
67.0
9.3
1940....
1941....
1942....
1943....
1944....
1945....
1946....
1947....
1948....
1949....
100.0
125.0
158.5
192.1
210.6
212.4
209.8
233.1
259.5
258.3
1950....
1951....
1952....
1953....
1954....
1955....
1956....
1957....
1958....
1959....
Percent change
from preceding
period l
Final
sales
Gross
nation- Final
al
prod- sales
uct
7.0
5.9
8.8
1.4
7.4
101.7
6.6
2.4
2.0
8.2
2.1
6.1
57.4
-4.2
1.2
4.6
3.4
13.5
5.2
1.2
3.9
8.3
90.5
7.0
5.3
71.0
80.8
88.6
99.4
108.2
119.5
143.8
161.7
174.7
178.1
1.8
13.1
1.5
17.9
9.9
5.8 - L 9
7.2 - 1 . 7
10.6
30.7 ~7.*8
34.0 11.9
45.9
6.9
35.3
6.5
5.4
6.1
5.0
4.6
5.5
7.4
15.1
20.2
17.5
16.3
3.6
4.7
4.8
6.5
7.2
7.9
7.3
8.3
10.5
9.8
14.2
24.9
59.8
88.9
97.0
82.8
27.5
25.5
32.0
38.4
6.1
16.9
52.0
81.3
89.4
74.6
17.6
12.7
16.7
20.4
2.2
13.7
49.4
79.7
87.4
73.5
14.8
9.0
10.7
13.2
3.9
3.2
2.6
1.6
2.0
1.1
2.8
3.7
6.0
7.2
8.1
8.0
7.8
7.5
7.6
8.2
9.9
12.8
15.3
18.0
97.8
120.6
156.7
192.8
211.6
213.5
203.5
233.5
254.8
261.4
10.0
25.0
26.7
21.3
9.6
.9
-1.2
11.1
11.3
8.1
23.2
30.0
23.0
9.8
.9
-4.7
14.8
9.1
2.6
286.5
330.8
348.0
366.8
366.8
400.0
421.7
444.0
449.7
487.9
192.0
207.1
217.1
229.7
235.8
253.7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52.7
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
78.1
2.2
4.4
3.2
1.3
2.5
3.0
5.3
7.3
3.3
1.4
14.4
19.7
19.1
18.0
18.7
21.0
25.0
28.1
24.2
24.8
12.2
15.3
15.9
16.7
16.2
18.0
19.8
20.8
21.0
23.4
38.5
60.1
75.6
82.5
75.8
75.0
79.4
87.1
95.0
97.6
18.7
38.3
52.4
57.5
47.9
44.5
45.9
50.0
53.9
53.9
14.0
33.5
45.8
48.6
41.1
38.4
40.2
44.0
45.6
45.6
4.7
4.8
6.5
8.9
6.8
6.0
5.7
5.9
8.3
8.3
19.8
21.8
23.2
25.0
27.8
30.6
33.5
37.1
41.1
43.7
279.7
320.5
344.8
366.3
368.4
394.1
417.0
442.6
451.2
482.2
10.9
15.5
5.2
5.4
.0
9.0
5.4
5.3
1.3
8.5
7.0
14.6
7.6
6.2
.6
7.0
5.8
6.1
1.9
6.9
I960....
1961
1962....
1963....
1964....
1965....
1966....
1967
1968
1969
506.5
524.6
565.0
596.7
637.7
691.1
756.0
799.6
873.4
944.0
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.5
430.4
465.1
490.3
536.9
581.8
75.9
74.8
85.4
90.9
97.4
113.5
125.7
122.8
133.3
149.3
5.5
6.6
6.4
7.6
10.1
8.8
6.5
6.3
4.3
4.2
28.9
29.9
31.8
34.2
38.8
41.1
44.6
47.3
52.4
57.5
23.4
23.3
25.4
26.6
28.8
32.3
38.1
41.0
48.1
53.3
100.3
108.2
118.0
123.7
129.8
138.4
158.7
180.2
199.0
208.8
53.7
57.4
63.7
64.6
65.2
67.3
78.8
90.9
98.0
97.6
44.5
47.0
51.1
50.3
49.0
49.4
60.3
71.5
76.9
76.3
9.3 46.5
10.4 50.8
12.7 54.3
14.3 59.0
16.2 64.6
17.8 71.1
18.5 79.8
19.5 89.3
21.2 101.0
21.2 111.2
503.6
522.2
558.8
590.7
632.1
681.2
741.9
789.3
865.5
934.2
3.8
3.6
7.7
5.6
6.9
8.4
9.4
5.8
9.2
8.1
4.4
3.7
7.0
5.7
7.0
7.8
8.9
6.4
9.7
7.9
1970
1971....
1972
1973
1974....
1975....
1976
1977....
1978
1979
992.7
1,077.6
1,185.9
1,326.4
1,434.2
1,549.2
1,718.0
1,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
621.7
672.2
737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
65.7 59.0 220.1
68.8 64.7 234.9
77.5 76.7 253.1
109.6 95.4 270.4
146.2 132.8 304.1
154.9 128.1 339.9
170.9 157.1 362.1
182.7 186.7 393.8
218.7 219.8 431.9
281.4 268.1 474.4
95J
96.2
101.7
102.0
111.0
122.7
129.2
143.4
153.6
168.3
73.6
70.2
73.1
72.8
77.0
83.0
86.0
92.8
100.3
111.8
22.2
26.0
28.5
29.1
33.9
39.7
43.2
50.6
53.3
56.5
124.4
138.7
151.4
168.5
193.1
217.2
232.9
250.4
278.3
306.0
989.5
1,070.0
1,175.7
1,307.9
1,420.1
1,556.1
1,706.2
1,895.3
2,137.4
2,403.5
5.2
8.6
10.1
11.8
8.1
8.0
10.9
11.7
12.8
11.7
5.9
8.1
9.9
11.2
8.6
9.6
9.6
11.1
12.8
12.4
339.2 314.0 538.4 197.2
367.3 341.3 596.9 228.9
349.7 333.2 647.1 257.3
131.4
153.7
178.5
65.8
75.2
78.8
341.2 2,643.1
368.0 2,917.3
389.8 3,078.9
8.9
11.6
4.1
10.0
10.4
5.5
1.1
1980
1981
1982"..
6.7
4.1
.7
14.2
13.4
26.8
13.8
-4.0
-1.1
13.2
2,633.1 1,667.2 402.3 25.2
2,937.7 1,843.2 471.5 26.1
3,057.5 1,972.0 421.9 16.5
1980:
I
II.
Ill
IV
2,575.9
2,573.4
2,643.7
2,739.4
1981:
III"
11
1
IV
1982:
I
II
Ill
IV...
144.2
166.4
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
-5.6
424.0
391.0
384.1
410.3
14.0
24.2
39.0
23.5
335.7
337.3
337.2
346.7
321.7
313.1
298.2
323.2
519.2
536.0
538.5
559.8
189.6
198.8
193.3
207.0
126.8
130.0
130.5
138.1
62.8
68.8
62.8
68.9
329.6
337.2
345.2
352.8
2,576.6
2,573.9
2,664.8
2,757.1
12.2
-.4
11.4
15.3
11.8
-.4
14.9
14.6
2,864.9 1,799.9 455J
2,901.8 1,819.4 475.5
2,980.9
486.0
3,003.2 1,884.5 468.9
31.2
23.7
25.9
23.5
365.4
368.9
367.2
367.9
334.2
345.1
341.3
344.4
578.1
583.2
600.2
626.3
217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5
143.1
150.5
154.4
166.9
73.9
67.7
75.7
83.6
361.1
365.0
370.1
375.7
2,852.7
2,877.2
2,949.1
2,989.9
19.6
5.3
11.4
3.0
14.6
3.5
10.4
5.7
414.8 31.3
431.5 34.9
6.9
443.3
397.9 - 6 . 9
359.9
365.8
349.5
323.7
328.6
330.9
342.5
330.6
630.1
630.9
651.7
675.7
249.7
244.3
259.0
276.1
166.2
176.2
182.7
188.9
83.5
68.2
76.3
87.2
380.4
386.6
392.7
399.6
3,031.1
3,061.4
3,083.5
3,139.8
-1.0
6.8
5.8
1.7
5.6
4.1
2.9
7.5
2,995.5
3,045.2
3,088.2
3,101.3
1,618.7
1,622.2
1,682.0
1,745.8
1,919.4
1,947.8
1,986.3
2,034.6
'Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from changes computed from data shown here.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
163
TABLE B-2.—Gross national product in 1972 dollars, 1929-82
[Billions of 1972 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment
Year or
quarter
Gross
national
product
Total
NonDurable
lurabl
durable Services
goods
goods
Total
Total
Total
1929
1933
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1985
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1978
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982".
1980:
I
II
Ill
IV
1981:
I
II
Ill
IV
1982:
I
II
Ill
IV"
21.1
5.0
8.7
10.0
12.0
6.8
4.2
5.5
8.3
18.9
17.4
18.4
17.9
16.4
5.5
12.1
15.8
18.5
10.9
9.8
13.2
19.2
23.2
31.5
32.6
28.1
13.7
2.8
11.1
12.5
13.3
6.7
4.0
3.4
3.8
16.6
21.3
25.6
23.8
83.0
80.2
78.7
83.8
85.3
96.1
96.8
95.5
89.3
100.9
101.2
100.9
109.7
117.5
125.9
140.1
146.2
142.7
152.6
160.4
50.0
52.9
52.1
56.3
55.4
61.3
65.4
66.2
59.3
63.6
66.9
66.7
72.0
75.1
82.7
97.4
108.0
105.6
109.5
116.8
19.2
20.7
20.6
22.6
23.6
25.4
28.3
28.4
26.8
27.4
154.8
165.8
184.8
200.4
183.9
161.5
176.7
200.9
220.7
229.1
213.3
216.9
205.4
113.8
112.2
121.0
138.1
135,7
119.3
125.6
140.3
158.3
169.9
166.1
172.0
165.4
29.5
30.2
31.6
31.9
34.4
40,6
43.4
42.0
42.8
45.0
43.9
42.8
44.1
47.4
43.6
38.3
39.5
40.4
44.6
49.1
48.5
51.6
53.2
30.8
32.2
31.5
33.7
31.8
35.9
37.0
37.8
32.5
36.2
37.4
36.5
40.4
43.1
48.3
56.8
64.5
63.6
66.8
71.8
69.9
69.3
76.9
90.7
92.1
81.1
86.1
99.9
113.7
120.8
117.6
120.4
112.2
33.0
27.3
26.6
27.5
29.9
34.8
31.5
29.2
30.0
37.4
34.2
34.3
37.7
42.5
43.1
42.7
38.2
37.1
43.1
43.6
41.0
53.7
63.8
62.3
48.2
42.2
51.2
60.7
62.4
59.1
47.2
44.9
40.0
222.7
201.9
199.2
209.6
225.3
204.4
207.8
215.9
171.9
162.4
163.8
166.4
51.1
48.5
47.1
47.5
120.8
113.9
116.7
118.9
444.2
444.3
446.2
446.2
221.6
229.5
233.4
218.9
219.2
217.4
216.9
214.1
169.7
170.1
173.9
174.2
49.5
51.0
52.5
53.3
449.5
452.2
454.0
457.0
195.4
202.3
206.3
183.6
210.8
206.7
202.9
201.3
172.0
166.7
163.4
159.6
53.5
53.7
53.0
52.7
44.5
55.8
29.5
18.1
19.7
27.7
70.9
70.0
82.1
65.4
51.4
49.3
54.7
59.7
64.8
72.6
78.4
79.5
88.3
91.8
89.1
98.2
111.1
121.3
112.3
112.7
126.6
138.0
146.8
147.2
137.1
140.0
138.7
161.8
165.3
171.2
175.7
177.0
185.4
191.6
194.9
196.8
205.0
208.2
211.9
218.5
223.0
233.3
244.0
255.5
259.5
270.5
277.3
283.7
288.7
300.6
307.4
302.5
307.5
321.9
333.4
344.4
353.1
355.8
362.4
365.2
132.9
137.2
140.9
145.6
150.5
157.6
165.0
170.3
175.9
184.8
192.4
200.2
208.8
217.8
229.8
240.9
251.8
263.7
275.6
288.8
299.3
309.9
325.3
339.2
348.0
359.3
374.7
393.0
412.0
427.3
437.6
445.2
453.2
93.5
93.9
83.0
85.3
83.1
103.8
102.6
97.0
87.5
108.0
104.7
103.9
117.6
125.1
133.0
151.9
163.0
154.9
161.6
171.4
158.5
173.9
195.0
217.5
195.5
154.8
184.5
214.2
236.7
236.3
208.4
225.8
196.9
937.0
915.8
928.0
941.0
145.4
128.9
134.6
139.5
357.8
352.7
353.7
359.0
433.9
434.3
439.7
442.5
1,507.8
1,502.2
1,510.4
1,490.1
951.1
944.6
951.4
943.4
145.3
138.6
142.2
134.1
361.6
361.7
363.0
363.1
1,470.7
1,478.4
1,481.1
1,471.7
949.1
955.0
956.3
968.0
137.5
138.3
136.4
142.8
362.2
364.5
365.9
368.2
20.9
10.7
18.6
21.2
24.2
15.7
14.0
13.0
14.4
25.4
30.1
32.5
35.5
42.6
39.1
38.0
42.1
42.5
51.1
48.8
48.6
45.3
50.7
737.2
756.6
1,011.4
1,058.1
1,087.6
1,085.6
1,122.4
1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
1,474.0
1,502.6
1,475.5
452.0
461.4
482.0
500.5
528.0
557.5
585.7
602.7
634.4
657.9
672.1
696.8
737.1
767.9
762.8
779.4
823.1
864.3
903.2
927.6
930.5
947.6
957.1
1,494.9
1,457.8
1,463.8
1,479.4
800.3
832.5
876.4
929.3
984.8
55.8
8.4
33.6
See next page for continuation of table.
Total
37.5
10.4
20.9
25.8
30.4
17.6
14.0
18.7
27.6
42.1
48.9
51.1
46.0
96.1
76.9
86.1
88.8
91.8
95.5
100.2
102.8
106.3
116.7
120.9
124.7
126.5
215.1
170.5
219.8
229.9
243.6
241.1
248.2
255.2
270.9
301.0
305.8
312,2
319.3
337.3
341.6
350.1
363.4
370.0
394.1
405.4
413.8
418.0
440.4
Producers'
Strucdurable
tures
equipment
51.2
13.2
32.0
38.3
43.8
24.3
18.0
22.0
31.4
58.7
70.2
76.6
69.8
98.1
82.9
115.1
119.9
127.6
129.9
134.0
139.4
150.3
158.9
154.8
155.0
157.4
315.7
222.1
319.8
344.1
400.4
461.7
531.6
569.1
560.4
478.3
470.3
489.8
492.2
534.8
579.4
600.8
623.6
616.1
657.5
6/1.6
683.8
680.9
721.7
164
Change
in
busiProducness
ers'
Farm
invenstruc- durable
tories
tures equipment
Residential
Nonresidential
Nonfarm
structures
13.0
2.5
10.4
11.6
12.3
6.0
3.5
3.0
3.4
15.3
19.7
23.8
22.1
31.3
25.7
25.1
26.1
28.5
33.5
30.0
27.8
28.6
35.9
32.9
32,8
36.3
40.9
41.5
41.2
36.6
35.4
41.3
41.7
0.6
0.1
.1
.2
.1
.0
.0
.1
.2
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.4
.4
.4
.5
.6
4.6
=4.9
1.6
6.2
12.0
5.2
~2!3
~3.fi
12.2
.2
5.5
-4.4
10.6
13.7
4.3
.5
.5
.6
.6
.7
.7
.8
.8
.9
1.1
1.5
-2.2
7.7
5.8
1.5
= 1.8
7.0
3.5
3.0
7.8
7.5
7.1
11.8
16.8
111
9.0
11.1
39.2
51.6
61.5
59.9
45.3
39.8
48.7
57.9
59.5
56.3
44.3
42.1
37.1
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
3.8
8.1
10.2
17.2
11.6
-6.7
7.8
13.3
16.0
7.3
-5.0
9.0
8.5
53.4
42.0
44.0
49,5
49.9
39.4
41.5
46.6
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.6
--2.5
-8.5
-6.2
120.1
119.1
121.4
120.9
49.6
47.3
42.9
39.9
47.0
44.6
39.9
36.7
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.4
12.1
16.5
4.8
118.5
113.0
110.4
106.9
38.9
40.1
39.5
41.7
36.0
37.0
36.6
38.8
1.9 = 15.4
1.9
4.4
1.9
3.4
1.9 = 17.7
TABLE B-2.—Gross national product in 2972 dollars, 1929-82—Continued
[Billions of 1972 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Net exports of goods and
services
Year or quarter
Percent change
from preceding
period1
Government purchases of goods and
services
Federal
Net
exports Exports Imports Total
Total
Nation- Nonal
dedefense fense
State
and
local
Final
sales
Gross
national
product
Final
sales
1929
3.7
16.7
12.9
41.0
7.0
33.9
311.0
6.6
1933
.4
9.1
8.6
42.9
10.9
32.0
227.0
-2.2
-3.1
1939
3.4
14.3
10.9
63.0
22.8
40.3
318.2
7.8
6.3
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
4.4
3.2
-.6
-59
-6.2
-3.7
13.2
18 9
10,8
10.7
15.5
16.4
11.4
9.8
10.5
13.8
27.3
32 2
26.3
25.8
U.l
13.2
12.0
15 7
16.8
17.5
14.0
13 3
15.5
15.2
65.3
97.8
191.6
2713
300.4
265.4
93.1
75 7
84.7
96.8
26.7
61,0
157.4
239 6
269.7
233.7
58.2
36.3
42.8
49.2
38 6
36.8
34 3
317
30.7
31.7
34.9
394
41.9
47.5
337.9
388.4
456.5
5315
571.4
564.0
466.1
470 6
484.3
496.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
59
10.1
7.9
4.8
69
7.3
101
11.8
56
2.7
23 6
28.6
27.9
26.6
27.8
30.7
35.3
38.0
33.2
33.8
17 7
18.5
20.0
21.8
20 9
23.4
25 2
26.1
27 6
31.1
981
133.7
159.8
170.1
156.0
152.3
153.5
161.2
169.8
170.6
47 3
82.2
107.2
114.7
961
88.2
86 8
90.6
93 4
91.4
50 8
51.5
52.7
55.3
59 9
64.1
66 7
70.6
76.4
79.2
524 2
565.6
596.5
622.1
618.2
649.8
665.8
682.2
682.7
714.7
87
8.3
3.7
3.8
-1.2
6.7
2.1
1.8
-.4
6.0
56
7.9
5.5
4.3
-6
5.1
25
2.5
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
77
8.5
75
94
12.8
101
6.5
5.4
1.9
.9
384
39.3
41.8
44 8
50.3
51.7
54.4
56.7
61.2
65.0
30 7
30.9
34 3
35 4
37.5
416
47.9
51.3
59.3
64.1
172 8
182.9
193.2
197 6
202.6
209 8
229.7
248.5
260.2
257.4
90 4
95.3
102 8
1018
100.2
100 3
112.6
125.1
128.1
121.8
82 4 733 7
87.5 753.7
90.4 792.4
95 8 825 0
102.4 869.3
109 5 917.5
117.1 968.0
123.4 999,2
132.1 1,049,1
135.6 1,076.6
2.2
2.6
5.8
4.0
5.3
6.0
6.0
2.7
4.6
2.8
27
2.7
5.1
41
5.4
55
5.5
3.2
5.0
2.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
3.9
16
.7
15.5
27.8
32.2
25.4
22.0
24 0
37.2
70.5
71.0
77.5
97.3
108.5
103.5
110.1
112.9
126.7
146.2
66.6
69 3
76.7
81.8
80.7
71.4
84.7
90.9
102 7
109.0
251.1
2501
253.1
253.3
260.3
265.2
265.2
269.2
274.6
278.3
110.6
103 7
101.7
95.9
96.6
97.4
96.8
100.4
100 3
102.1
73.1
68.3
66.9
66.4
64.9
65.4
65 7
67.4
28.5
27.6
29.7
31.0
31.8
35.0
34,7
34.8
140.5
146 4
151.4
157.4
163.6
167.8
168.4
168.8
174.3
176.2
1,081.8
1,114.3
1,175.7
1,237.1
1,234.7
1,238.4
1,290.4
1,356.4
1,422.6
1,472.2
-.2
3.4
5.7
5.8
-.6
-1.2
5.4
5.5
5.0
2.8
.5
30
5.5
5.2
-.2
.3
4.2
5.1
4.9
3.5
1980
1981 p
1982
50.6
42.0
30.3
159.2
158.5
147.5
108.6
116.4
117.2
284.6
287.1
291.2
106.5
110.4
116.1
70.1
73.5
78.7
36.4
36.8
37.4
178.1 1,479.0
176.7 1,493.7
175.0 1,484.0
-.4
1.9
-1.8
.5
1.0
-.6
1980:
I
II
III
IV
50 5
53.2
53.1
45.6
164 4
161.2
155.9
155.1
113 9
108.0
102.8
109.6
284 7
286.9
283.4
283.2
106 4
109.1
105.5
104.8
70 3
70.4
70.0
69.6
36.1
38.7
35.5
35.2
178 3
177.8
177.9
178.4
1,497 5
1,460.3
1,472.3
1,485.7
1.5
-9.6
1.6
4.3
16
-9.6
3.3
3.7
1981:
1
II
III
IV
48 2
44.2
39.2
36.5
159 3
159.7
157.8
156.9
111 1
115.5
118.7
120.4
286 8
283.9
286.4
291.3
107 9
107.0
110.7
116.0
710
72.9
74.3
76.1
36 9
34.1
36.5
39.9
179 0
176.9
175.7
175.3
1505 4
1,490.1
1,493.9
1,485.3
7.9
-1.5
2.2
-5.3
54
-4.0
1.0
-2.3
36.9
35.7
27.5
21.1
151.7
154.4
147.5
136.4
114.7
118.7
120.0
115.3
289.2
285.3
291.1
299.0
114.4
110.3
116.2
123.7
74.5
78.2
80.6
81.3
39.8
32.1
35.5
42.4
174.9
175.0
174.9
175.4
1,486.1
1,482.7
1,477.8
1,489.3
-5.1
2.1
.7
-2.5
-.9
-1.3
3.2
..
...
1982:
|
III
IV *
=
7.6
6.2
16.3
14.9
15.3
17 5
151
16 4
7.1
75
-1.5 -1.3
-14.7 - 1 7 4
-17
10
4.1
2.9
.5
2.5
4.7
1
Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from changes computed from data shown here.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
165
TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-82
[Index numbers, 1972. 100, except as noted; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Gross private domestic investment l
Personal consumption expenditures
Year or
quarter
1929
1933
1939 ..
1940
1941 .
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948 .. .....
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954 .
1955
1956 .
1957
1958 .
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964 .
1965
1966
1967 .
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974 .
1975
1976 .
1977
1978
1979 .
1980
1981
1982 P
1980:
II
Ill
IV
1981:
|
||
III
IV
1982:
1
||
HI
IV P
Gross
national
product»
f'ixed investment
Residential
Nonresidential
Total
NonDurable durable Services Total
goods goods
Total
Producers'
durStructures able
equipment
Total
Nonfarm
structures
ProFarm ducers'
durstrucable
tures equipment
32.76
25.13
28.43
29.06
3123
34.32
3614
37.01
37 91
43.88
49.55
52.98
52.49
53.56
57.09
57 92
58.82
59.55
60.84
62.79
64.93
66.04
67.60
68.70
69.33
70.61
71.67
72.77
74.36
76.76
79.06
82.54
86.79
91.45
96.01
100.00
105.75
115 08
125.79
132.34
140.05
150.42
163,42
178.64
195.51
207.23
35.9
26.9
30.5
30.9
33 2
36.7
401
42.4
441
47.8
52.9
560
55.8
56.9
60.6
62 0
63.2
63.7
64.4
65.6
67.8
69.2
70.6
71.9
72.6
73.7
74.8
75.9
77.2
79.4
81.4
84.6
88.4
92.5
96 5
100.0
105.7
1164
125.3
1317
139.3
149.1
162.5
179.2
194.5
206.0
44.2
32.5
35.9
36.7
40 0
43.7
46 7
51.3
555
621
67.8
70 3
70.5
72.2
76 3
76 7
77.2
75.0
756
77.7
80 9
81.3
83.8
83.8
84.3
85.4
86.2
87.1
86.8
86.7
88.2
91.1
93.3
95.7
99 0
100.0
1017
108 2
117.3
123 9
129.2
136 4
145.0
156.3
167 5
174.9
38.4
26.8
30.5
30.9
33 6
39.1
43 7
46.2
47 8
52.1
58.7
62 3
60.3
60.7
65.8
66 5
66.3
66.6
66.3
67.3
69.4
71.0
71.4
72.6
73.3
73.9
74.9
75.8
77.3
80.1
81.9
85.3
89.4
93.6
96 6
100.0
108 5
1234
132.5
137 2
143.6
153 4
169.9
188.4
202.7
208.9
31.6
26.1
29.2
29.5
30 8
32.4
34 2
36.1
37 3
38.8
41.7
44 4
46.0
47.4
49.9
52 6
55.4
57.2
584
60.1
62 2
64.1
66.0
67.9
69.0
70.4
71.7
72.7
74.2
76.4
78.7
81.9
86.0
90.5
95 6
100.0
104 7
113 0
121.6
1296
139.3
1500
162.3
178.8
196 3
213.3
28.3
22.4
27.7
28.5
30 7
33.5
35 7
37.0
37 2
41.3
49.0
53.7
54.9
56.7
60.9
62 3
63.1
63.6
65.0
68.5
71.1
71.0
71.8
72.1
71.8
72.2
72.3
72.9
74.0
76.3
78.8
82.2
87.0
91.1
95.7
100.0
105.5
116 7
131.9
139 2
149.8
163 2
178.5
193.3
208.0
215.8
28.3
22.9
28.2
29.1
310
33.9
35 9
36.8
36 7
40.0
46.9
51.5
53.0
54.5
59.1
601
61.2
61.7
62.9
67.3
71.0
70.9
72.2
72.5
72.0
72.5
73.1
73.8
74.7
76.9
79.5
82.8
86.7
91.3
96 2
100.0
103 8
1154
132.2
138 6
146.3
157 2
170.8
186.1
2013
210.1
24.3
19.2
23.0
23.4
24 9
28.4
32 4
33.8
33 9
36.6
44.0
48.8
48.4
49.3
55.1
56 3
57.4
56.5
57.6
62.4
64.9
63.9
64.2
63.7
63.3
63.6
64.1
64.9
66.4
69.2
72.2
75.8
81.5
88.2
94 5
100.0
107.7
128 2
144.8
149 0
159.4
1764
200.2
227.7
2515
266.4
33.4
26.2
32.0
32.8
34.9
37.3
37.3
38.0
37.9
42.8
48.6
53.0
56.0
57.8
61.7
62.6
63.8
65.5
66.6
71.1
75,5
76.6
78.3
79.4
79.3
79.4
79.7
80.1
80.6
82.1
84.3
87,2
89.9
93.2
97 2
100.0
1018
109 3
126.2
1339
141.0
149 7
158.8
169.0
179.8
183.4
28.2
20.7
26.6
27.4
30 0
32.4
34 9
38.1
408
44.6
53.7
58.1
58.7
60.0
64.4
66 4
66.9
67.1
68.7
71.0
71.4
71.2
71.1
71.4
71.3
71.5
70.9
71.2
72.3
74.6
77.0
80.7
87.7
90.5
94.8
100.0
109.1
120 3
131.0
140.7
158.0
178.3
200.5
218.5
233.6
239.3
27.8
19.8
26.3
27.2
29 7
31.8
34.3
37.3
40.0
43.9
53.0
57.5
58.1
59.5
63.8
65.8
66.3
66.6
68.2
70.5
70.9
70.7
70.6
70.9
70.9
71.1
70.5
70.8
72.0
74.3
767
80.5
87.5
90.3
94.7
100.0
109.4
120.8
131.6
141.3
159.0
179.8
202.7
221.7
237.1
242.8
28.6
19.5
23.4
23.6
26 6
30.7
35 7
40.8
42 9
46.6
52.8
57.3
58.0
59.4
63.8
65 7
66.2
66.5
68.3
70.6
70.9
70.8
70.7
71.1
70.7
71.2
70.6
70.9
72.2
74.2
76.7
80.6
87.5
90.6
95.0
100.0
109.2
120.5
131.9
140.7
157.0
180.0
202.7
218.8
236.9
242.6
77.2
58.8
61.1
59.6
63 8
71.3
71.4
75.0
84.6
95.2
105.6
1U.5
107.9
107.4
114.9
114.6
114.2
112.4
109.1
104.3
103.4
101.9
101.8
100.8
99.0
96.8
95.3
94.3
92.1
90.8
91.0
93.5
95.7
97.8
99.3
100.0
100.6
106.8
116.9
122.7
126.7
132.6
140.3
149.2
159.4
168.3
172.31
176.52
180.60
185.16
172.8
177.1
181.2
185.5
151.9
154.4
158 0
161.1
181.9
186.2
190.5
195.1
172.2
176.5
180.9
185.4
188.5
191.5
195.1
198.3
181.0
184.9
187.9
190.8
216.9
224.9
232.7
237.2
165.8
167.9
169 9
172.3
212.5
217.2
221.8
223.4
215.2
220.6
225.2
226.4
214.7
219.1
221.2
224.3
145.2
148.0
150.8
153.0
190 01
193.17
197.36
201.55
189 2
192.6
196.4
199.8
163 0
166.2
169.7
171.3
199 3
201.7
204.2
205.6
189 6
193.4
198.6
203.6
202 3
207.4
209.4
212.9
194 5
200.7
203.0
206.8
2415
249.1
252.7
261.9
1751
179.9
181.4
182.5
229 0
231.7
235.8
239.2
232 2
234.9
239.4
243.3
227 3
233.4
237.9
242.7
155.4
158.3
161.3
162.8
203.68
205.98
208.51
210.73
202.2
204.0
207.7
210.2
173 0
174.0
176.1
176.3
206 8
207.1
210.0
211.4
207 4
210.6
215.3
219.8
213 6
216.6
216.2
216.8
207 6
211.3
210.7
210.9
264 5
267.6
266.7
266.7
1819
184.6
183.8
183.5
240 5
238.6
238.8
239.4
244.3
242.1
242.3
242.7
243.8
242.0
241.9
242.9
165.7
168.1
169.4
170.0
See next page for continuation of table.
166
TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-82—Continued
[Index numbers, 1972=100, except as noted; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Exports and
imports of goods
and services1
Year or quarter
Exports
Imports
Government purchases of goods and services
Percent change
from preceding
period2
Federal
Total
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and
local
Final
sales
GNP
implicit
price
deflator
Final
sales
implicit
price
deflator
1929
42.2
45.5
21.5
20.5
21.8
32.7
0.0
1933
26.5
23.6
19.2
194
19.1
25.3
-2.1
-2.6
1939
32.1
31.0
21.4
22.7
20.7
28.4
-.8
-.9
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
34.9
37.3
43.6
46.8
51.9
53.6
55.4
62.8
66.5
63.1
32.8
35.4
40 0
41.3
42 7
44.9
51.8
62.3
67.8
64.6
217
25.5
312
32.8
32 3
31.2
29 6
33.6
37.7
39.7
22 7
27.8
33 0
34.0
331
31.9
30 2
35.0
39 0
41.4
20 9
21.7
22 8
23.7
24 8
25.8
28 5
32.4
36 4
37.8
29 0
31.0
34 3
36.3
37 0
37.9
43 7
49.6
52 6
52.6
22
7.5
99
5.3
24
2.4
15 7
12.9
69
-.9
18
7.2
106
5.6
21
2.2
15 3
13.7
60
.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
61.0
68.8
68 6
67.5
67.2
68.5
71.0
74.0
731
73.5
68.8
82.6
79 9
76.7
77.2
77.1
78.4
79.6
761
75.2
39.2
45.0
47 3
48.5
48.6
49.2
51.7
54.0
560
57.2
39.6
46.6
48 9
50.1
49.9
50.4
52.9
55.1
57 7
59.0
38.9
42.3
441
45.2
46.5
47.6
50.2
52.6
53 8
55.1
53.3
56.7
57 8
58.9
59.6
60.6
62.6
64.9
661
67.5
2.1
6.6
14
1.6
1.2
2.2
3.2
3.4
17
2.4
1.3
6.2
20
1.9
1.2
1.8
3.3
3.6
19
2.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
75.2
761
76.0
58.0
591
61.1
62 6
64.1
66.0
69 1
72 5
76.5
81.1
59.4
60 2
62.0
63 5
56.5
58 0
60.1
1.6
9
616
68.6
69 3
70 5
77.2
79.4
819
83 5
85.5
88.5
76.1
75 5
74.2
75 2
76.8
77.7
79 4
79 9
81.1
83.2
67.1
70 0
72 7
76.5
80.1
63.1
64.9
68 2
72 4
76.4
82.0
72.7
74.2
76 6
79 0
82.5
86.8
93.2
97.0
100.0
112.7
134 8
149 6
155.3
161.9
172.6
192.5
88.6
93 3
100.0
116.7
164 6
179 6
185.6
205.5
214.1
246.1
87.7
93 9
100.0
106 7
116 8
128 2
136.6
146.3
157.3
170.4
86.6
92 7
100.0
106 3
114 9
126 0
133.5
142.8
153.1
164.8
106.6
115.1
124 9
132.4
141.9
152.7
166.0
100.0
105.6
114.2
128 2
135.7
144.6
153.8
162.5
88.6
94 7
100.0
107.0
118.0
129 4
138.3
148.4
159.7
173.7
213.1
231.8
237.1
289.3
293.1
284.3
189.2
207.9
222.3
185.2
207.4
221.6
187.4
209.0
226.9
181.0
204.2
210.4
204 2
209.2
216.3
223.5
282 5
289.8
290.1
294.9
182 4
186.8
190.0
197.7
178 2
182.2
183.3
197.5
180 3
184.6
186.5
198.4
229 3
230.9
232.6
234.5
3007
298.7
287.7
286.1
2015
205.5
209.5
215.0
2012
204.0
207.8
216.0
237 3
236 8
236 9
237.4
286 4
278 8
285 4
286.7
217 8
221 1
223 9
226.0
218 3
221 6
223 0
223.3
763
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
p
1980:
I .,
II
III
IV
1.7
10
1.8
15
1.5
18
15
15
2.2
32
2.1
32
4.4
5.1
4.4
5.2
91.5
96 0
100.0
105.7
115.0
125 7
132.2
139.7
150.3
163.3
5.4
50
4.2
5.8
8.8
5.4
50
4.1
5.7
8.8
191.6
208.2
222.7
1741
177.9
176.8
195.7
2017
206.4
207.9
219.5
223 0
225 2
226 5
232.4
651
ioo.o
716
30
31
9.3
93
5.2
5.8
7.4
8.6
5.2
5.7
7.5
8.7
178.7
195.3
207.5
9.3
9.4
6.0
9.5
9.3
6.2
184 8
189.6
194.0
197.8
1721
176.3
181.0
185.6
10.5
10.1
9.6
10.5
10.1
10.1
11.2
10.5
200 3
198.9
207.4
209.4
2017
206.3
210.7
214.3
189 5
193.1
197.4
201.3
10 9
6.8
9.0
8.8
87
7.8
9.3
8.1
209 6
212 6
214 9
205.9
217 5
220 9
224 5
227.9
204 0
206 5
208 7
210.8
4.3
1981:
II
III
IV
1982:
II
Ill ...
IV P
4.6
50
4.3
54
50
43
4.2
1
Separate deflators are not calculated for gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, and net exports of
goods and services.
2
Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from changes computed from data shown here. Quarterly
changes are at annual rates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
167
TABLE B-4.—Fixed-weighted price indexes for gross national product, 1972 weights, 1959-82
[Index numbers, 1972=100, except as noted; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Gross private domestic
investment1
Year or quarter
Personal
conGross
national sumption
product expenditures
Fixed investment
Total
Exports and
imports of goods
and services1
Nonresi- Residen- Exports Imports
tial
dential
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal
Total
Total
National Nondefense defense
State
and
local
Percent
change
from
ing
period,
gross
national
product
fixedweighted price
index*
1959
69.8
73.1
74.4
74.1
74.9
73.4
75.0
56.9
58.5
55.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
70.8
716
72.4
73.2
74.1
74.1
74 8
75.5
76.3
77.2
74.7
74 4
74.2
74.0
74.3
74.5
74 3
74.4
74.7
75.3
74.9
74 7
73.9
72.6
72.6
75.0
76.0
76.0
76.3
77.1
76.0
75 2
73.7
74.7
76.3
58.3
59 5
61.3
62.8
64.4
59.6
60 5
61.7
63.3
65.3
57.4
58.9
61,0
62.5
63.9
1.5
11
1.2
1.1
1.2
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
75 3
775
79 8
83 1
87.3
78 2
801
82 0
850
88.7
75 2
77 0
79 3
825
87.3
76 1
77 9
80 3
83 3
87.0
73 5
75 3
77 5
810
87.8
79 4
818
83 3
85 5
88.5
77 1
78 8
79 3
80.7
83.0
66 2
69 2
72 4
76.4
81.3
671
69.6
715
75.7
79.8
656
68.8
731
76 9
82.3
17
29
30
41
5.0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
918
96 2
100 0
106 0
115.9
92 7
96 6
100 0
1061
117.1
912
95 8
100 0
105 8
117.9
916
96 3
100 0
104 0
116 5
90.6
94 9
100.0
109.2
120.5
93.1
97 0
100.0
112 6
137.4
88.4
93.3
100.0
116.7
161.5
87.9
94.0
100.0
106.9
117.9
86.7
92.9
100.0
106.7
117.0
100.0
106.9
117.5
100.0
1061
115.6
88.7
94 8
100.0
107.0
118.4
5.2
48
4.0
60
9.4
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
126.4
133 7
142.2
153 3
167.8
126 3
133 0
141.2
1516
166.3
132.3
140 2
15L8
167 0
185.4
132 9
1399
148 5
160 9
177.2
131.2
140 8
158.0
178.4
200.8
151.8
156 9
164.0
174.9
197.2
175.1
178 7
195.0
210.1
244.5
129.2
137.3
147.0
158.4
173.2
128.0
135.4
145.0
155.4
169.5
127.9
135.6
145.5
156.5
171.7
128.3
135.0
143.6
152.6
164.0
130.0
138.5
148.4
160.4
175.7
9.1
5.8
6.3
7.8
9.5
1980
1981
1982"
184.4
202 0
214.6
184.8
2021
213.8
204.1
220 9
231.1
196.0
213 5
225.7
219.5
235.0
241.3
218.6
239.3
245.7
303.7
319.0
315.5
193.8
212.2
226.2
192.7
214.7
230.1
196.5
219.7
236.4
182.8
201.7
214.0
194.6
210.6
223.6
9.9
9.6
6.2
177 8
182.1
186 3
191.3
178 2
182.7
187 0
191.5
1971
202.5
207 5
210.2
188 7
194.2
199 2
202.8
213.2
218.4
223.0
224.3
210 4
214.3
221.2
229.1
2910
300.6
309.8
314.6
186.6
191.4
195.1
202.1
184.9
189.5
191.9
203.9
188.2
193.7
196.1
208.2
176.4
178.7
181.4
192.7
187.7
192.7
197.2
200.9
10.5
10.0
9.4
11.2
195.9
199 9
204,2
208.4
196.6
200 2
203.9
207.5
215.0
219 0
223.2
226.8
2071
2117
215.6
219.3
229.9
233 0
237.5
241.2
235.4
238 4
241.1
242.5
322.6
323 4
316.3
314.0
206.0
210 3
213.6
219.3
208.1
212 2
214.5
223.9
211.6
217 4
219.6
230.1
199.1
1988
201.6
207.9
204.6
2090
212.9
216.1
10.0
8.4
8.9
8.5
210 8
213.0
216.0
218.8
209 9
211.6
215.4
218.4
229 2
230.4
232.0
233.0
222 0
225.0
227.4
228.7
242 7
240.7
240.7
241.1
245.6
246.3
245.2
245.5
3191
313.6
313.6
315.3
222 4
224.5
227.2
231.0
2271
228.4
230.1
234.9
2334
234.6
236.3
241.4
2110
212.6
214.2
218.2
219 2
221.9
225.2
228.3
4.8
4.1
5.9
5.2
1980:
II
III
I
V
1981:
I
Ill
IV
1982:
|
Ill
IV**
1
Separate deflators are not calculated for gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, and net exports of
goods and services.
* Quarterly changes are at annual rates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
168
TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP price measures, 1929-82
[Percent change from preceding period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personal consumption expenditure s
Gross national product
Period
Current
dollars
Constant
(1972)
dollars
Implicit
price
deflator
1929
6.6
6.6
-4.2
-2.2
-2.1
7.0
7.8
-.8
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
10 0
25.0
26 7
21.3
9.6
76
Current
dollars
Constant
(1972)
dollars
Implicit
price
deflator
Chain
price
index
Fixedweighted price
index
(1972
weights)
0.0
1933
1939
Chain
price
index
Fixed*
weighted price
index
(1972
weights)
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
.9
12
11.1
113
-.5
109
-15
-14 7
-1.7
41
-1.0
2.4
12.2
8.8
2.8
5.8
2.4
15.7
12.9
10.5
20.3
12.5
6.2
11.1
4.1
8.0
1.9
78
7.9
6.9
-.9
2.1
6.6
14
1.6
6.0
2.4
3.8
3.6
7.7
5.6
6.9
22
2.6
58
4.0
5.3
1.6
.9
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.2
1.4
1.3
8.4
94
5.8
9.2
8.1
5.2
8.6
6.0
60
2.7
2.2
3.2
3.0
4.4
5.1
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979 .
8.0
10 9
117
12.8
11.7
1980
1981
1982 *
11.6
4.1
101
11.8
8.1
89
||
12 2
_ 4
III
IV
11.4
15.3
46
2.8
-.2
34
57
58
6
-12
54
55
50
48
5.8
III
IV
19 6
53
114
3.0
1982:
||
III
IV P
1.0
68
58
1.7
8.3
10.7
5.8
20
6.5
23
1.9
2.7
1.8
.9
76
6.5
1.0
4.9
5.4
3.2
3.2
3.4
1.7
5.4
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.9
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.7
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.2
2.6
2.1
4.5
3.8
5.5
1.1
11
1.4
1.2
.9
9
1.2
1.1
1.9
3.1
3.0
4.3
5.0
1.7
29
3.0
4.1
5.0
7.5
8.1
5.4
9.5
8.4
5.6
5.1
2.9
5.3
3.7
1.8
2.9
2.4
4.0
4.5
1.5
2.7
2.5
3.8
4.5
1.3
2.4
2.4
3.6
4.4
5.2
4.8
6.9
8.1
2.2
3.7
4.6
4.3
4.6
4.3
4.5
4.2
10.4
10.4
7.8
5.4
5.0
5.3
4.9
4.1
6.0
8.8
9.1
9.4
9.3
9.2
9.1
5.8
7.4
6.1
7.6
6.3
7.8
5.7
40
6.0
58
10.2
9.4
5.8
4.2
3.7
5.7
-.7
10.1
9.9
2.2
96
110
7.7
6.0
.3
1.8
1.0
10.3
8.6
5.9
11.5
10.5
9.6
9.8
9.0
96
9.7
11.0
10 5
10 0
9.4
11.2
10.7
-.7
15.6
16.1
-8.7
5.4
5.7
10 0
84
13.0
4.4
113
3.4
-2.7
2.9
-3.3
5.0
4.8
15
96
1.6
43
10.5
101
9.6
10.5
79
15
10.9
22
68
90
-5.3
8.8
9.3
8.2
92
8.4
-51
21
4.3
4.6
4.6
4.3
7.6
5.8
9.6
6.2
9.0
9.4
6.4
8.9
95
99
9
6.0
5.2
89
8.5
7.6
4.1
6.1
5.9
5.2
8.1
10.1
36
6.1
5.0
4.5
2.7
5.6
11.1
11.8
11.9
10.6
10.6
7.0
9.4
6.0
5.0
1.9
3.3
2.2
7.4
42
5.8
52
2.9
2.1
1.0
4.5
3.1
6.0
5.5
6.9
8.6
93
25
1.6
2.1
2.3
56
1.3
25
3.8
9.0
1.2
28
4
1.9
-1.8
7
2.9
2.2
1981:
II
13
7.4
10.8
97
8.5
.0
90
-.7
46
5.9
13.8
5.4
53
1.3
52
5.4
-3.8
5.3
60
2.2
7.5
9.9
5.3
87
83
37
38
12
67
21
18
-.4
15.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1980:
|
16 3
15 3
15.1
7.1
-2.0
4.6
-5.7
4.4
2.5
2.5
.6
5.0
5.1
7.0
9.0
53
53
6.2
7.4
7.3
9.3
9.7
10 7
9.1
6.0
11.2
9.3
5.8
12.6
13.4
10 4
9.8
10.1
101
9.8
10.0
8.3
7.3
8.2
7.0
10.3
7.4
5.0
5.2
3.6
7.1
5.6
3.5
7.5
4.9
35
6.1
80
7.2
10.9
7.7
76
7.1
4.8
3.2
7.3
5.7
Note.—Changes are based on unrounded data and may differ slightly from changes computed from data shown elsewhere in these
tables.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
169
TABLE B-6.—Gross national product by major type of product, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Goods
Year or
quarter
Gross
national
product
Final
sales
Inventory
change
Durable goods
Total
Total
Final
sales
Inven- Final
tory
change sales
Inventory
change
Nondurable goods
Final
sales
lnven»
tory
change
Services Structures
Auto
output
1929
103.4
101.7
1.7
56.1
54.4
1.7
16.1
1.4
38.3
0.3
35,9
11.4
1933
55.8
57.4
-1.6
27.0
28.6
= 1,6
5.4
=.5
23.2
= 1.1
25.9
2.9
1939
90.9
90.5
.4
49.0
48.6
.4
12.4
.3
36.2
.1
34.4
7.5
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945..
1946
1947
1948
1949
100.0
125.0
158 5
192.1
2106
212.4
209.8
2331
259.5
258.3
97.8
120.6
156.7
192.8
2116
213.5
203.5
233.5
254.8
261.4
2.2
4.5
18
-.6
= 10
-1.0
6.4
53.8
68.0
91.9
121.0
133.3
129.9
118.9
140.3
149.7
150.8
2.2
4.5
1.8
= .6
-1.0
-1.0
6.4
=3.1
15.4
23.8
34.5
54.2
58.5
50.1
31.8
44.4
48.0
50.0
1.2
3.1
1.0
.0
= .6
-1.3
5.3
1.4
1.0
-1.8
38.4
44.2
57.4
66.8
74.8
79.8
87.1
95.9
101.7
100.9
1.0
1.4
8.3
11.8
14.0
8.7
6.1
6.5
15.7
21.7
28.0
28.4
286.5
330 8
348.0
366.8
366 8
400.0
421.7
444 0
449.7
487.9
279.7
320.5
344.8
366.3
368 4
394.1
417.0
442.6
451.2
482.2
155.6
179.2
191.5
202.7
197 6
208.5
218.6
231.0
229.7
242.9
6.8
10.3
3.1
.4
-1.5
6.0
4.7
1.3
-1.5
5.7
56.2
66.4
72.5
77.8
73.9
81.4
85.9
91.3
84.4
90.8
3.6
6.1
1.2
1.5
-2.5
3.4
2.1
88.5
103.5
113.9
121.6
126.2
136.1
146.2
158.7
167.7
179.8
506 5
524.6
565 0
596.7
637.7
691.1
756 0
799.6
873 4
944.0
5036
522.2
558.8
590.7
632.1
681.2
741.9
789.3
865.5
934.2
30
2.3
63
6.0
5.6
9.9
141
10.3
79
9.8
2513
255.0
272.2
284.3
304.2
328.5
360.9
379.1
413.4
440.4
3.0
2.3
6.3
6.0
5.6
9.9
14.1
10.3
7.9
9.8
93.3
92.7
102.9
109.4
118.9
131.6
147.0
153.5
167.9
178.5
=2.8
3.1
1.6
=.1
3^4
2.7
4.0
6.7
10.2
5.5
4.7
6.4
99.4
112.8
119.0
124.9
123.7
127.1
132.7
139.6
145.3
152.1
1960 .
1961
1962..
1963
1964
1965
1966..
1967
1968..
1969
162.4
189.5
194.6
203.1
1961
214.5
223.3
232 3
228.2
248.5
254 2
257.4
278 5
290.3
309.8
338.4
375 0
389.4
4213
450.2
.2
1.1
= 1.9
3.7
= 1.3
3.2
4.2
2.0
-1.1
1.0
2.6
2.6
.8
1.3
2.5
35.7
40.8
50.8
63.0
72.3
77.0
68.8
71.6
77.2
82.2
1950
1951..
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958 ..............
1959
4.7
= 3.1
6.8
10.3
3.1
.4
- 15
6.0
4.7
13
-1.5
5.7
56.0
72.5
93 7
120.4
132 3
128.9
125.3
139.8
154.4
147.7
158.0
162.4
169.3
174.9
185.3
196.9
213.9
225.6
245.5
261,9
1.3
2.4
2.8
3.3
1.6
3.2
3.9
4.9
3.1
3.4
193.8
207.0
222.0
237.1
255.0
273.3
299.0
326.5
358.2
391.9
35.6
37.8
39.4
42.0
44.5
49.5
52.2
53,0
53.8
59.5
58.5
60.2
64.5
69.3
72.9
79.3
82.0
83.6
94.0
101.8
21.3
17.8
22.5
25.2
25.9
31.2
30.4
28.0
35.1
34.9
1970
1971
1972..
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
992.7
1,077.6
1185 9
U26.4
1,434 2
1,549.2
1,718.0
1,918.3
21639
2/17.8
989.5
1,070.0
1175.7
1,307.9
1,420.1
1,556,1
1,706.2
1,895.3
2137 4
2;403.5
3.2
7.7
10 2
18.5
14.1
=6.9
11.8
23.0
26 5
14.3
459.9 456.6
485.3 477.7
529 6 5194
604.1 585.6
646 7 632.5
694.0 700.9
771.1 759.3
855.0 832.0
9586 9321
1,065.6 1,051.3
3.2
7.7
10.2
18.5
14.1
=6.9
11.8
23.0
26.5
14.3
179.2
187.1
207.4
237.6
250.7
279.4
312.5
354.9
402.1
454.3
= .1
2.8
7.2
13.1
12.0
-8.4
7.7
10.4
19.1
10.5
277.5
290.6
312.0
348.0
381.8
421.5
446.7
477.2
530.1
597.0
3.3 429.9
4.8 472.0
3.0 519.0
5.3 571.5
2.2 636.1
1.5 705.2
4.2 779.3
12.6 867.2
7.3 972.2
3.8 1,089.7
102.9
120.3
137.3
150.8
151.4
150.0
167.6
196.1
233.1
262.5
28.7
39.1
41.6
46.2
39.2
40.7
55.9
65.1
69.5
68.0
1980
1981..
1982 ".
2,633.1 2,643,1 = 10.0
2,937 7 2917.3 20 5
3,057.5 3iO78.9 =21.4
482.5 = 5.2
519.4
8.7
510.7 = 15.5
669.4
749.4
791.3
=4.8 1,225.5
11.7 1,364.3
=5.9 1.492.1
265.7
284.2
284.9
59.8
69.2
65.7
488.1 -11.8
= .5
461.4
481.2 -13.1
4.6
499.2
637.7
653,5
680.4
705.9
11.1
.0
8.1
=22.3
1,174.7
1,207.2
1,243.3
1,277.0
276.0
251.8
259.9
275.1
63.1
51.9
56.8
67.5
2.2
18.5
19 8
-5.6
733.3
731.7
757.6
774.7
10.0
6.1
12.0
18.9
1,313.5
1,340.2
1,382.1
1,421.5
286.1
285.6
281.9
283.3
66.1
73.7
78.7
58.3
513.2 =30.9
6.6
512.6
10.1
506.8
510.3 -34.7
791.8
786.7
783.9
802.7
=4.8
-9.6
=-5.4
-3.8
1,444.4
1,476.7
1,509.5
1,537.6
281.7
285.3
283.2
289.2
53.5
69.9
75,2
64.3
1980;
||
Ill
I
V
1981:
||
Ill
IV
1982:
||'
Ill
IV ".
1.7
1,141.9 1,151.9 = 10.0
1,289 2 1,268.7 20.5
1,280.6 1,302.0 -21.4
2,575.9
2,573.4
2 643 7
2J39.4
2,576.6
-.7
2,573.9
= .4
2 664 8 212
2,757.1 -17.7
1,125.2
1,114.5
11404
1,187.4
= .7
1,125.8
—4
1,114.9
11616 = 2 U
l>05.1 = 17.7
2,864.9
2 9018
2 980 9
3,003.2
2,852.7
2 877 2
2 9491
2,989.9
12.2
24 6
318
13.2
1,265.3
12761
1317 0
1,298.4
1,253.1
12514
1*285 1
1,285.2
2,995.5
3 045 2
3 088 2
3ilO1.3
3,031.1 =35.6
3 0614 - 1 6 2
47
3'083 5
3[l39.8 =38.5
1,269.4
1,283 1
1295 5
l|274.5
1,305.0 -35.6
1 299.3 = 16.2
4.7
l'29O7
1J313.0 = 38.5
12.2
24.6
31.8
13.2
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
170
519.8
519.7
527.5
510.5
-.6
7"2
8.8
11.9
15.4
13.3
12.0
16.1
14.7
21.2
16.9
19.4
14.4
19.4
TABLE B-7.—Gross national product by major type of product in 1972 dollars, 1929-82
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Goods
Year or
quarter
Gross
national
product
Final
sales
Inventory
change
Durable goods
Total
Total
Final
sales
Inventory
change
Final
sales
Inventory
change
Nondurable goods
Final
sales
Inventory
change
Services Structures
Auto
output
1929
315.7
311.0
4.6
144.3
139.7
4.6
40.4
3.5
99.3
1.1
127.4
1933
222.1
227.0
-4.9
97.5
102.3
-4.9
17.5
-2.1
84.9
-2.8
110.7
14.0
1939
319.8
318.2
1.6
154.3
152.7
1.6
35.5
.7
117.2
135.2
30.3
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
344.1
400.4
461.7
531.6
569.1
560.4
478.3
470.3
489.8
492.2
337.9
388.4
456.5
531.5
571.4
564.0
466.1
470.6
484.3
496.6
6.2
12.0
5.2
.1
-2.3
-3.6
12.2
-.2
5.5
-4.4
171.7
198.6
221.4
263.3
287.3
278.5
238.3
237.7
244.8
240.3
165.5
186.6
216.2
263.3
289.6
282.2
226.2
237.9
239.4
244.7
6.2
12.0
5.2
3.4
8.2
3.5
-2.3
-3.6
12.2
-.2
5.5
-4.4
43.1
57.8
75.7
118.8
135.9
121.2
60.3
75.5
77.3
78.3
-1.8
-3.7
10.8
1.4
1.6
-2.9
122.4
128.7
140.5
144.4
153.7
161,0
165.8
162.4
162.1
166.4
U
-1.6
3.8
-1.5
139.9
158.5
193.9
242.0
263.7
263.0
200.8
188.1
192.5
198.3
32.5
43.3
46.3
26.2
18.1
18.8
39.1
44.6
52.4
53.6
12.3
13.9
18.0
534.8
579.4
600.8
623.6
616.1
657.5
671.6
683.8
680.9
721.7
524.2
565.6
596.5
622.1
618.2
649.8
665.8
682.2
682.7
714.7
10.6
13.7
4.3
1.5
-2.2
7.7
5.8
1.5
-1.8
7.0
261.5
283.7
292.1
306.8
292.7
316.7
320.9
321.7
311.6
332.5
250.9
270.0
287.8
305.3
294.9
309.0
315.1
320.2
313.4
325.5
10.6
13.7
4.3
1.5
-2.2
7.7
5.8
1.5
-1.8
7.0
86.1
98.2
107.9
116.2
109.0
117.2
117.8
119.4
109.2
113.6
5.5
9.0
1.7
2.3
-3.7
4.5
2.9
.9
-3.4
3.9
164.8
171.8
179.9
189.1
185.9
191.9
197.2
200.8
204.3
211.9
5.1
4.7
2.6
-.8
1.5
3.2
2.9
.6
1.6
3.1
207.4
231.3
243.2
247.5
249.1
260.1
270.2
282.4
287.6
299.4
65.9
64.3
65.5
69.3
74.3
80.7
80.5
79.7
81.7
89.8
23.0
19.3
17.1
22.6
21.6
29.8
23.0
24.5
18.6
23.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967.
1968
1969
733.7
737.2
753.7
756.6
792.4
800.3
825.0
832.5
869.3
876.4
917.5
929.3
968.0
984.8
999.2
1,011.4
1,058.1 1,049.1
1,076.6
1,087.6
3.5
3.0
7.8
7.5
7.1
11.8
16.8
12.2
9.0
11.1
335.8
338.0
361.3
372.2
393.8
422.6
456.4
463.4
483.1
496.0
332.3
335.0
353.5
364.7
386.7
410.8
439.6
451.2
474.1
484.9
3.5
3.0
7.8
7.5
7.1
11.8
16.8
12.2
9.0
11.1
115.6
114.7
125.7
132.5
143.0
157.2
174.0
178.3
187.4
193.0
2.0
-.1
4.2
3.4
5.1
8.2
12.3
6.6
5.4
7.2
216.6
220.3
227.8
232.2
243.7
253.6
265.6
272.9
286.7
291.9
1.6
3.0
3.7
4.2
1.9
3.6
4.5
5.6
3.6
3.9
312.5
326.9
341.5
356.2
374.0
390.7
412.6
434.1
453.0
469.2
89.0
91.7
97.4
104.1
108.6
116.0
115.9
113.9
122.0
122.5
25.3
21.2
26.0
28.7
29.4
35.7
34.8
31.8
38.5
37.4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979 ....
....
1,085.6
1,122.4
1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
1,081.8
1,114.3
1,175.7
1,237.1
1,234.7
1,238.4
1,290.4
1,356.4
1,422.6
1,472.2
3.8
8.1
10.2
17.2
11.6
-6.7
7.8
13.3
16.0
7.3
486.9
497.2
529.6
572.3
562.5
547.4
587.2
628.1
662.0
677.7
483.2
489.1
519.4
555.1
550.9
554.2
579.4
614.8
645.9
670.4
3.8
8.1
10.2
17.2
11.6
-6.7
7.8
13.3
16.0
7.3
187.5
188.7
207.4
236.1
234.1
230.2
242.7
264.7
285.4
299.1
.0
3.0
7.2
12.7
9.4
-6.4
5.4
6.9
11.8
6.2
295.7
300.4
312.0
319.0
316.8
324.0
336.7
350.1
360.5
371.3
3.7
5.1
3.0
4.5
2.2
~2A
6.3
4.3
1.1
482.4
497.8
519.0
542.8
562.8
575.9
595.0
617.3
644.7
670.7
116.3
127.3
137.3
139.1
121.0
108.3
116.0
124.4
131.9
131.0
29.8
38.9
41.6
46.4
37.1
35.7
45.3
50.7
50.3
47.0
1980
1981
1982 >
1,474.0 1,479.0
1,502.6 1,493.7
1,475.5 1,484.0
-5.0
9.0
-8.5
667.9
689.5
661.1
672.9
680.5
669.6
-5.0
9.0
-8.5
290.8
289.3
273.3
-2.6
3.8
-6.5
382.1
391.2
396.3
-2.4
5.1
-2.0
687.1
695.6
701.3
118.9
117.6
113.1
38.7
41.5
37.6
IV
1,494.9
1,457.8
1,463.8
1,479.4
1,497.5
1,460.3
1,472.3
1,485.7
-2.6
-2.5
-8.5
-6.2
682.5
658.2
659.5
671.6
685.1
660.7
668.0
677.8
-2.6
-2.5
-8.5
-6.2
304.2
279.8
286.9
292.4
-4.7
-1.2
-6.2
1.8
380.8
380.9
381.1
385.5
2.2
-1.3
-2.4
-8.0
684.2
686.0
690.0
688.2
128.3
113.6
114.3
119.6
42.0
33.8
36.7
42.2
1981:
I
II
Ill
IV
1,507.8
1,502.2
1,510.4
1,490.1
1,505.4
1,490.1
1,493.9
1,485.3
2.4
12.1
16.5
4.8
692.8
689.8
697.2
678.0
690.4
677.7
680.7
673.2
2.4
12.1
16.5
298.9
290.5
290.2
277.6
.1
9.1
8.6
-2.5
391.5
387.2
390.5
395.6
2.3
3.0
7.9
7.3
693.1
693.2
697.5
698.6
121.9
119.2
115.7
113,4
41.6
44.5
45.6
34.4
1982:
I
II
Ill
IV P.
1,470.7
1,478.4
1,481.1
1,471.7
1,486.1 -15.4
1,482.7 - 4 . 4
3.4
1,477.8
1,489.3 -17.7
661.8
663.2
665.1
654.5
677.2 -15.4
667.5 - 4 . 4
661.7
3.4
672.1 -17.7
278.7 - 1 3 . 7
274.9 - 2 . 6
269.2
4.8
270.6 - 1 4 . 7
398.5
392.6
392.5
401.5
-1.7
-1.7
-1,5
-2.9
697.0
702.2
703.6
702.3
111.9
113.0
112.5
114.9
31.3
39.7
42.3
37.1
1980:
\\"""ZZ
III
4.8
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
171
2.8
3.8
1.7
-.6
-.5
43.9
TABLE B-8.—Gross national product by sector, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross domestic product
Year or quarter
Gross
national
product
Total 1
Total
Nonfarm1
Percent
Governmen
Business *
Farm
HouseStatis- holds
and
tical
instidiscrep- tutions Total
ancy
Federal
2
State
and
local
Rest
of the
world
from
precedperiod,
gross
national3
product
1929
1034
102.6
95.4
84.7
9.7
1.1
2.S
4.3
0.9
3.5
0.8
6.6
1933
55.8
55.5
49.1
43.8
4.6
.7
1.7
4.7
1.2
3.5
.3
=4.2
90.9
90.5
80.6
72.9
6.3
1.4
2.3
7.6
3.4
4.2
.5
7.0
1940
1941...
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949...
100.0
125 0
158.5
192.1
210.6
212 4
209.8
2331
259.5
258.3
99.6
124.5
157.9
191.6
210.1
212.0
209.0
231.8
257.9
256.9
89.4
112.6
139.9
162.8
174.2
172.8
183.8
210 0
234.9
231.5
81.8
103.1
127.7
149.3
156.2
152.7
164.4
188 2
213.1
212.2
6.4
8.9
13.0
15.3
15.3
16.0
18.8
20.2
23.3
18.8
1.1
.6
-.8
-1.8
2.7
4.1
.5
1.5
-1.6
.6
2.4
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.7
4.1
4.5
5.1
5.6
5.9
7.8
9.4
15.1
25.6
32.2
35.2
20.8
16 7
17.4
19.4
3.5
5.0
10.6
20.9
27.2
29.8
14.6
9.4
8.9
10.0
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.4
6.2
7.3
8.5
9.4
.4
•5
.5
.4
.8
1.2
1.6
1.4
10.0
25.0
26.7
21.3
9.6
.9
-=1.2
11.1
11.3
= .5
1950...
1951
1952...
1953
1954
1955 ..
1956
1957...
1958
1959..
286 5
330.8
348 0
366 8
366.8
400 0
421.7
444 0
449.7
487.9
284.8
328.7
345.7
364.6
364.5
397.3
418.5
440.5
446.6
484.6
257 5
294.4
307.3
324 9
323.9
354 0
372.1
390 8
393.1
428.3
236 3
268.3
283 4
302 3
302.3
333 9
355.7
373 7
372.2
410.6
20.0
22.9
22.2
20.3
19.7
18.8
18.6
18.4
20.7
19.0
13
3.2
1.7
23
2.0
13
-2.1
-12
.2
13
6.4
6.9
7.2
7.8
8.1
9.1
9.8
10.5
11.4
12.3
20.9
27.4
31.2
319
32.5
34.2
36.6
391
42.1
44.0
10.7
16.2
18.9
18.6
17.8
18.4
19.0
19.6
20.5
20.9
10.1
11.2
12.3
13 3
14.7
15.8
17.6
19 6
21.6
23.1
1.6
2.1
2.3
22
2.3
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.0
3.3
10.9
15.5
5.2
54
.0
90
5.4
5.3
1.3
8.5
1960..
1961
1962...
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
506 5
524.6
565 0
596.7
637 7
691.1
756 0
799.6
873 4
944.0
5029
520.7
560.5
591.8
632.3
685.2
750.3
793.7
866.7
937.1
442 0
455.7
490 6
517.2
5516
598.4
652.6
685.1
7454
803.2
424 2
435.7
4681
495.0
532 2
577.7
6284
663.3
725 0
782.1
20 2
20.2
20 4
20.5
19 3
21.9
22.8
22.1
22.6
25.1
24
-.1
21
1.7
1
-1.2
1.4
.3
-2.1
-3.9
13 8
14.4
15.5
16.6
17.8
19.2
21.1
23.4
26.1
29.4
471
50.5
54 3
58.0
62.9
67.6
76.5
85.1
95.2
104.5
21.7
22.6
24.1
25.2
27.0
28.3
32.4
35.6
39.3
41.9
25.5
27.9
30.2
32.9
35.9
39.3
44.1
49.5
55.9
62.6
3.6
3.9
4.6
4.9
5.5
5.9
5.6
5.9
6.7
6.9
3.8
3.6
7.7
5.6
6.9
8.4
9.4
5.8
9.2
8.1
992 7
1,077.6
1185 9
1,326.4
1434 2
1,549.2
1,718.0
1,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
9854
1,068.5
1,175.0
1,310.4
1,414.4
1,531.9
1,697.5
1,894.9
2,134.3
2,375.2
837 3
907.1
998 6
1,118.7
1206 4
1,301.7
1,447.3
1,624.0
1,837.2
2,052.1
8131
875.4
963 4
1,068.0
1155 0
1,247.3
1,396.3
1,574.2
1,781.0
1,982.1
25 8
27.6
319
49.9
47 7
48.9
45.9
48.4
58.7
71.6
15
4.1
33
.8
37
5.5
5.1
1.4
-2.6
-1.5
32.3
35.4
38.6
42.1
45.8
50.6
55.6
60.5
67.8
75.6
115 8
126.0
137 8
149.6
162 2
179.6
194.6
210.3
229.3
247.4
44.8
46.8
50.1
51.9
54.9
59.0
62.4
66.3
71.7
75.7
711
79.3
87.7
97.7
107.3
120.6
132.3
144.0
157.6
171.8
7.3
9.2
10.9
16.0
19.8
17.3
20.5
23.5
29.6
42.6
5.2
8.6
10.1
11.8
8.1
8.0
10.9
11.7
12.8
11.7
2,633.1
2,937.7
3.057.5
2,587.0
2,888.5
3,011.9
2,228.8
2,492.4
2,582.5
2,159.5
2,418.5
2,507.6
65.4
75.8
74.8
3.9
1.9
.1
85.4
96.4
106.7
272.8
2997
322.7
82.9
92.3
99.8
189.9
207.4
222.9
46.1
49.2
45.7
8.9
11.6
4.1
II
III
IV
2,575.9
2,573.4
2,643.7
2,739.4
2,527.2
2,526.6
2,597.8
2,696.5
2,183.3
2,173.7
2,237.2
2,321.1
2,106.4
2.108.6
2,168.0
2,255.2
66.3
61.2
67.0
66.9
10.5
3.8
2.2
-1.0
81.5
84.0
86.5
89.7
262.4
269.0
274.0
285.8
79.8
81.4
81.6
88.7
182.7
187.6
192.4
197.0
48.7
46.8
45.9
42.9
12.2
15.3
1981:
1
II
Ill
IV....
2,864.9
2,901.8
2,980.9
3,003,2
2.817.9
2,855.2
2,931.2
2,949.8
2,433.4
2,463.9
2 533.9
2,538.6
2,357.5
2,394.6
2 454 7
2,467.4
70.8
73.9
80.1
78.4
5.1
-4.6
= .8
-7.2
92.9
95.2
97.1
100.3
291.6
296.2
300.1
310.9
89.9
90.5
91.0
97.9
201.7
205.6
209.2
213.0
47.1
46.6
49.7
53.3
19.6
5.3
11.4
3.0
2,995.5
3,045.2
3 088 2
3,101.3
2,949.6
2,995.7
3,041.6
3,060.5
2,530.6
2,570.1
2,610.0
2,619.3
2,465.1
2,494.4
2 530.2
2,540.6
72.9
74.8
76.1
75.2
- 7 . 5 103.3
.8 105.3
3.6 107.9
3.6 110.4
315.8
320.3
323.8
330.8
98.6
98.9
99.1
102.4
217.1
221.4
224.7
228.4
45.8
49.5
46.6
40.8
-1.0
6.8
5.8
1.7
1939
1970
1971
1972...
1973
1974
1975..
1976
1977
1978.
1979
1980..
1981 p
1982 .
1980:
1982:
I
Ill
IV
1
8
3
P
, ..
Includes compensation of employees in government enterprises.
Compensation of government employees.
Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from changes computed from data shown here.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
172
TABLE B-9.—Gross national product by sector in 1972 dollars, 1929-82
[Billions of 1972 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross domestic product
Businessl
Year or quarter
Urn tea
Prrxee
UfOSS
national
product
Total
Total l
Nonfarm1
Farm
nouseStatisti- holds
and
rai
C3I
instidiscrep- tutions
ancy
Government2
Total
Federal
State
and
local
Rest
of the
world
Percent
change
from
preceding
period,
gross
national
product3
1929
315.7
313.2
271.5
244.7
23.6
3.1
15.6
26.2
5.2
21.0
2.4
6.6
1933
222.1
220.9
180.0
152.5
24.9
2.6
12.2
28.8
6.6
22.1
1.3
-2.2
1939
319.8
318.2
261.0
231.3
25.2
4.6
15.1
42.1
16.9
25.2
1.6
7.8
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948....
1949
344.1
400.4
461.7
531.6
569.1
560.4
478.3
470.3
489.8
492.2
342.8
398.7
460.1
530.3
567.7
559.3
476.4
467.8
486.8
489.4
282.7
327.6
361.8
385.6
403.6
397.9
385.5
393.8
412.0
409.8
254.6
299.8
335.3
362.1
370.1
362.8
358.6
367.0
389.0
383.4
24.5
26.2
28.6
27.7
27.1
25.6
25.8
24.0
25.8
25.6
3.6
1.6
-2.1
-4.2
6.4
9.4
1.1
2.9
-2.8
.8
16.1
15.9
16.4
15.2
15.1
15.0
15.1
16.0
16.7
17.3
44.0
55.2
81.9
129.4
149.1
146.4
75.9
58.0
58.1
62.3
18.6
29.6
56.7
105.0
125.2
121.8
49.7
29.8
29.2
31.3
25.4
25.6
25.2
24.5
23.9
24.6
26.2
28.2
29.0
31.0
1.4
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.8
2.5
3.0
2.7
7.6
16.3
15.3
15.1
7.1
-1.5
-14.7
-1.7
4.1
.5
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959....
534.8
579.4
600.8
623.6
616.1
657.5
671.6
683.8
680.9
721.7
531.8
575.6
596.9
619.8
612.1
653.0
666.5
678.3
676.2
716.8
448.7
478.0
492.8
515.6
508.5
547.0
557.4
566.1
561.7
600.0
419.4
447.2
463.7
484.3
477.0
516.0
531.5
539.5
532.0
574.0
27.0
25.8
26.4
27.7
28.4
29.3
28.9
28.2
29.3
27.8
2.4
5.0
2.6
3.6
3.1
1.8
-3.0
-1.7
.3
-1.9
18.3
18.7
18.6
19.3
19.4
21.4
22.5
23.1
24.2
24J
64.7
79.0
85.5
85.0
84.1
84.6
86.7
89.1
90.3
92.2
32.7
46.2
51.6
49.6
47.2
45.9
45.6
45.8
44.5
44.5
32.0
32,8
33.9
35.4
36.9
38.6
41.0
43.3
45.8
47.7
3.0
3.7
3.9
3.7
4.0
4.5
5.1
5.5
4.6
4.9
8.7
8.3
3.7
3.8
-1.2
6.7
2.1
1.8
-.4
6.0
1960
1961
1962....
1963
1964
1965
1966....
1967
1968
1969....
737.2
756.6
800.3
832.5
876.4
929.3
984.8
1,011.4
1,058.1
1,087.6
732.0
751.0
793.8
825.6
868.9
921.4
977.5
1,003.9
1,050.0
1,079.7
610.1
625.1
663.2
691.6
730.3
777.7
824.0
842.0
882.1
907.1
584.2
596.3
631.5
659.7
701.3
749.6
794.1
812.8
855.6
881.9
29.2
28.9
28.8
29.6
28.8
29.8
28.2
29.5
29.0
29.5
-3.3
-.2
2.9
2.3
.2
-1.6
1.7
-.3
-2.5
-4.4
26.6
27.0
28.1
28.9
29.8
30.9
32.6
34.3
35.4
37.0
95.3
98.9
102.5
105.2
108.8
112.7
120.8
127.7
132.4
135.7
45.2
46.2
48.3
48.2
48.5
48.7
53.0
57.2
58.0
58.2
50.1
527
54.3
57.0
60.4
64.0
67.9
70.5
74.4
77.4
5.2
5.7
6.5
6.9
7.5
7.9
7.4
7.5
8.2
7.9
2.2
2.6
5.8
4.0
5.3
6.0
6.0
2.7
4.6
2.8
1970
1971
1972....
1973....
1974
1975
1976....
1977 ....
1978....
1979....
1,085.6
1,122.4
1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
1,077.6
1,112.8
1,175.0
1,239.2
1.229.0
1,217.8
1.282.6
1,352.8
1,418.7
1,453.2
904.8
938.6
998.6
1,060.7
1,047.4
1,032.4
1,095.4
1,163.7
1,224.3
1,255.6
875.4
901.7
963.4
1,028.4
1,012.4
994.5
1,059.5
1,129.5
1,193.5
1,222.4
31.1
32.6
31.9
31.6
31.8
33.6
32.1
33.1
32.6
34.2
36.7
37.6
38.6
39.4
39.3
40.5
40.9
41.5
43.3
44.6
136.1
136.7
137.8
139.1
142.3
144.9
146.3
147.7
151.2
153.0
55.2
52.5
50.1
48.2
48.5
48.4
48.5
48.6
49.3
49.0
80.9
84.2
87.7
90.8
93.8
96.5
97.8
99.1
101.9
104.1
8.0
9.5
10.9
15.1
17.3
13.8
15.6
16.9
19.9
26.3
1980....
1981....
1982 »..
1,474.0
1,502.6
1,475.5
1,447.9
1,477.2
1,453.2
1,246.7
1,274.3
1,249.7
1,210.3
1,236.8
1,210.1
34.2
38.4
39.6
-1.7
4.2
3.3
.7
3.2
4.4
3.8
1.0
-1.8
-1.0
2.2
-.9
.0
45.8
46.9
48.1
155.4
156.0
155.4
49.5
49.7
49.8
105.9
106.3
105.6
26.1
25.4
22.2
-.2
3.4
5.7
5.8
-.6
-1.2
5.4
5.5
5.0
2.8
-.4
1.9
-1.8
1980:
I
II
Ill
IV
1,494.9
1,457.8
1,463.8
1,479.4
1,466.4
1,431.0
1,438.1
1,456.0
1,266.6
1,230.0
1,236.2
1,254.0
1,224.9
1,192.6
1,200.9
1,222.6
35.6
35.3
34.0
32.0
6.1
2.1
1.2
-.5
45.3
45.4
46.0
46.4
154.4
155.6
155.9
155.7
49.0
49.8
49.8
49.4
105.4
105.8
106.1
106.3
28.6
26.8
25.7
23.4
1.5
-9.6
1.6
4.3
1,507.8
1,502.2
1,510.4
1,490.1
1,482.8
1,477.8
1,485.0
1,463.3
1,279.7
1,274.8
1,282.4
1,260.2
1,242.9
1,240.9
1,241.9
1,221.5
34.1
36.3
40.9
42.3
2.7
-2.4
-.4
-3.6
46.8
46.7
46.7
47.4
156.3
156.2
155.9
155.8
49.6
49.7
49.8
49.8
106.8
106.5
106.1
106.0
25.0
24.4
25.4
26.7
7.9
-1.5
2.2
-5.3
1,470.7
1,478.4
1,481.1
1,471.7
1,448.0
1,454.1
1,458.6
1,452.2
1,244.4
1,250.5
1,255.4
1,248.4
1,210.0
1,212.2
1,214.4
1,204.0
38.1
38.0
39.3
42.8
-3.7
.4
1.7
1.7
47.8
47.9
48.0
48.6
155.7
155.7
155.2
155.1
49.8
49.8
49.8
49.9
106.0
105.9
105.4
105.3
22.7
24.2
22.5
19.5
-5.1
2.1
.7
-2.5
1981:
if.'.'."'.
Ill
IV
1982:
if.'."'.!
Ill
IV..
1
2
3
Includes compensation of employees in government enterprises.
Compensation of government employees.
Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from changes computed from data shown here.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
173
TABLE B-10.—Gross national product by industry, 1947-81
[Billions of dollars]
Gross domestic product
Year
Manufacturing
Gross
FiGovernAnrirnl
Ulhnlo
Daet
nation- AgriculTrans*
ment Statisti- of the
nest
al
ture,
portation wnoie- nance,
sale insurand
fVin
Cdl
conand ance, Services governprod- forestry, Mining
Dura- Nonand
world
struction Total
retail
uct
and
ble durable public
and
ment discrepfisheries
goods goods utilities trade real
enterancy
estate
prises
66.2
74.7
72.1
33.5
38.1
37.1
32.7
36.5
35.0
20.5
23.1
23.4
44.2
48.4
48.0
23.2
26.2
28.6
20.2
21.9
22.6
19.3
20.2
22.5
1.5
1.6
.6
1.2
1.6
1.4
9.3
10.2
10.1
10.6
10.9
13.0 83.7
15.4 98.7
16.6 103.0
17.1 112.1
17.2 106.4
45.8
55.4
58.9
65.9
60.8
37.9
43.3
44.1
46.2
45.6
25.7
29.2
31.0
32.9
32.6
51.3
56.4
58.5
59.8
60.8
31.9
35.2
38.7
42.8
46.5
24.0
25.9
27.5
29.4
30.5
23.8
30.8
35.3
36.4
36.9
1.3
3.2
.1.7
2.3
2.0
1.6
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.3
19.9
19.7
19.5
21.9
20.2
12.4
13.4
13.5
12.4
12.3
18.5
20.6
21.4
21.0
22.8
120.9
126.8
131.4
123.8
141.3
70.6
73.7
77.7
69.7
81.2
50.3
53.2
53.7
54.1
60.0
35.6
38.3
40.2
40.4
43.7
66.2
70.4
73.9
75.2
81.9
50.0
53.5
57.6
62.4
67.3
34.0
37.3
40.2
42.3
46.3
38.5
40.7
44.0
47.1
50.0
1.3
-2.1
= 1.2
.2
-1.3
2,8
3.2
3.5
3.0
3.3
506.5
524.6
565.0
596.7
637.7
21.4
21.5
21.9
22.0
21.0
12.6
12.7
12.8
13.1
13.4
23.2
24.0
25.7
27.4
29.8
143.8
144.4
157.9
167.4
179.4
82.1
81.3
91.5
97.6
105.3
61.7
63.1
66.4
69.8
74.2
45.8
47.4
50.2
53.0
56.3
84.2
86.3
92.1
96.1
104.7
71.6
75.4
80.6
85.3
91.0
49.2
52.3
56.1
60.0
65.3
53.4
56.7
61.1
65.9
71.2
-2.4
= .1
2.1
1.7
.1
3.6
3.9
4.6
4.9
5.5
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
691.1
756.0
799.6
873.4
944.0
23.8
24.8
24.2
25.0
27.8
13.5
14.2
14.6
15.3
16.1
32.8
35.9
37.5
41.3
46.3
197.7
216.6
222.3
242.8
256.7
118.0
130.4
133.6
146.0
154.5
79.7
86.3
88.7
96.8
102.2
60.5
65.3
68.6
74.0
80.0
112.6
121.5
130.1
144.4
157.0
98.0
105.9
114.2
123.8
133.6
70.8
78.4
86.1
94.2
105.3
76.7
86.4
96.3
108.1
118.2
= 1.2
1.4
—3
-2!l
-3.9
5.9
5.6
5.9
6.7
6.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
992.7
1,077.6
1,185.9
1,326.4
1,434.2
28.6
30.8
35.4
53.8
52.2
17.6
17.4
19.0
21.7
32.2
48.9
53.6
59.4
66.3
69.2
252.2
265.6
292.5
326.1
340.7
146.2
153.9
173.2
195.9
201.3
105.9
111.7
119,3
130.2
139.4
85.7
93.8
104.3
114.3
122.9
166.5
181.4
199.5
221.5
241.5
142.4
156.4
169.8
184.9
202.0
114.4
123.6
136.5
153.1
167.5
130.5
141,8
155.4
167.8
182.7
= 1.5
4.1
3.3
.8
3.7
7.3
9.2
10.9
16.0
19.8
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1,549.2
1,718.0
1,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
53.3
51.2
54.6
66.0
79.6
38.8
43.0
47.4
52.0
66.8
69.9
76.6
86.6
102.1
115.7
358.2
410.4
464.8
518.7
563.2
207.6
240.0
277.7
316.7
344.3
150.6
170.4
187.1
202.0
218.9
135.7
152.6
170.9
193.3
209.6
266.2
291.4
322.3
362.3
401.5
216.2
238.6
275.5
317.4
358.3
186.2
208.2
234.3
265.9
302.4
202.0
220.4
237.2
259.1
279.6
5.5
5.1
1.4
=2,6
= 1.5
17.3
20.5
23.5
29.6
42.6
1980
1981
2,633.1
2,937.7
74.1
85.6
94.1
127.2
121.2 581.2
127.2 644.0
347.8
388.4
233.4
255.6
232.4
261.9
425.7 405.2
472.7 448.2
342.5
386.9
306.8
336.7
3.9
-1.9
46.1
49.2
1947
1948
1949
233.1
259.5
258.3
20.8
24.0
19.5
6.8
9.4
8.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
286.5
330.8
348.0
366.8
366.8
20.8
23.8
23.1
21.3
20.7
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
400.0
421.7
444.0
449.7
487.9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
9.1
11.5
11.5
Note.—The industry classification is on an establishment basts and is based on the 1972 Standard Industrial Classification.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
174
TABLE B-ll.—Gross national product by industry in 1972 dollars, 1947-81
[Billions of 1972 dollars]
Gross domestic product
Year
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
AgriGross
national culture, Minforestproduct ry, and ing
fisheries
TransFiGovern- Stapor- Whole- nance,
ment
Rest
tistation sale insur- Servand
of the
and ance, ices govern- tical Resid- world
Dura- Nonand
dis- ual '
ble durable public retail and
ment
goods
util- trade reat
enter- crepancy
estate
ities
prises
Manufacturing
Construction Total
68.5
72.0
66.3
46.4
49.4
48.8
42.3
42.1
39.2
75.9
78.0
79.8
54.7
56.6
59.8
55.9
57.5
57.6
68.7
69.2
73.3
29.3
32.5
33.8
34.8
36.0
131.1 78.1
146.0 89.9
150.8 94.3
161.1 102.6
149.6 91.7
53.0
56.1
56.5
58.5
57.9
41.2
45.5
45.5
46.6
45.8
87.5
88.3
91.0
93.9
94.5
63.9
66.7
70.9
73.9
77.3
59.7
60.8
61.6
62.7
62.9
75.6
90.0
96.9
96.3
95.2
13.2
13.9
13.8
12.7
13.3
38.2
40.9
40.9
42.1
45.5
165.7
166.9
167.7
153.3
171.2
103.4
102.5
102.9
88.8
100.9
62.3
64.4
64.8
64.5
70.3
49.7
52.1
53.2
51.9
55.4
103.1
106.2
107.9
107.8
115.4
81.8
85.8
89.8
93.4
98.5
32.1
31.8
31.7
32.5
31.8
13.5
13.6
13.9
14.5
15.1
46.1
46.7
48.4
49.9
52.2
171.8
172.0
186.7
202.2
216.7
101.0
99.5
110.0
119.5
129.8
70.8
72.5
76.7
82.8
86.8
57.5
58.6
61.5
65.0
68.1
117.5
118.7
126.3
131.1
139.1
929.3
984.8
1,011.4
1,058.1
1,087.6
32.8
31.3
32.6
32.1
32.7
15.7
16.5
17.0
17.6
18.2
54.4
54.6
53.4
56.9
55.8
236.7
254.9
254.3
268.2
277.2
144.6
157.3
157.4
165.5
170.3
92.0
97.6
96.9
102.7
106.8
73.4
79.4
81.6
88.2
92.6
148.2
156.3
160.1
169.9
173.6
1,085.6
1,122.4
1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
34.4
35.9
35.4
35.3
35.8
18.9
18.4
19.0
19.2
19.2
53.4
57.9
59.4
60.1
53.3
261.2
266.8
292.5
325.3
311.7
155.2
156.4
173.2
194.2
186.3
106.0 94.9
110.4 97.9
119.3 104.3
131.1 110.6
125.3 111.9
176,4 155.8 126.7
185.5 162.6 128.4
199.5 169.8 136.5
211.1 177.2 144.8
207.0 184.5 147.9
152.9
153.9
155.4
157.2
161.2
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
37.1
35.8
36.9
37.0
38.9
18.9
19.1
19.5
20.1
20.8
48.3
52.8
55.0
58.8
58.2
289.6
317.4
339.2
357.2
367.0
168.8
187.2
202.9
217.4
223.4
120.8
130.1
136.3
139.8
143.6
113.5
118.6
125.1
134.2
140.0
209.7 187.9 148.5
220.2 194.8 154.7
231.0 207.2 164.3
244.6 217.8 174.2
250.7 229.4 183.0
1,474.0
1,502.6
39.1
43.4
21.6
22.3
53.3 351.2 210.0
52.0 359.2 215.3
470.3
489.8
492.2
26.3
28.2
28.0
10.8
11.3
9.9
22.9 114.9
26.5 121.4
26.5 115.1
534.8
579.4
600.8
623.6
616.1
29.3
28.4
29.2
30.5
31.3
11.1
12.1
11.9
12.2
11.8
657.5
671.6
683.8
680.9
721.7
32.1
31.7
31.1
32.2
30.6
737.2
756.6
800.3
832.5
876.4
-7.4
-1.2
-.6
2.5
3.0
2.7
.8
.2
2.4
5.0
2.6
3.6
3.1
2.6
4.1
4.6
3.0
3.7
3.9
3.7
4.0
67.6
70.9
74.1
76.2
80.8
95.7
1.8
97.8 - 3 . 0
100.4 - 1 . 7
101.7
.3
104.0 - 1 . 9
4.2
3.4
.9
4.5
4.0
4.5
5.1
5.5
4.6
4.9
102.7
107.3
113.3
116.8
122.1
83.5
86.6
90.3
94.0
98.8
107.7 - 3 . 3
111.6
-.2
2,9
115.5
2.3
118.7
123.1
3.1
4.4
3.2
-1.5
1.7
5.2
5.7
6.5
6.9
7.5
128.5
133.9
139.4
145.7
152.9
103.1
109.0
115.0
118.8
124.0
127.8 - 1 . 6
136.9
1.7
144.1
148.9
152.5 - 4 . 4
2.3
3.0
6.7
6.2
4.6
7.9
7.4
7.5
8.2
7.9
-1.7
4.2
3.3
4.7
1.2
.0
-2.5
-6.5
8.0
9.5
10.9
15.1
17.3
4.4 - 4 . 2
164.3
3.8 - . 2
165.7
1.0
167.5
6.0
4.9
171.7 - 1 . 8
174.3 - 1 . 0 - 8 . 1
13.8
15.6
16.9
19.9
26.3
-7.7
-9.7
26.1
25.4
141.2 140.8 243.3 237.9 189.0
143.9 142.1 250.4 243.6 196.7
-lis
177.3
178.1
2.2
-.9
1
Equals GNP in constant dollars measured as the sum of incomes less GNP in constant dollars measured as the sum of gross product
by industry.
Note.—-The industry classification is on an establishment basis and is based on the 1972 Standard Industrial Classification.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
175
T A B L E B-12.—Gross domestic product of nonfinancial
corporate business, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Net domestic product
Gross
Hnmac
domestic
product
of
nonfinancial
corporate
business
Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
50.1
24.4
43.7
50.4
65.6
82.9
98.7
102.1
95.3
99.3
120.0
137.3
133.5
5.5
4.3
4.8
4.9
5.4
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.5
7.6
9.3
10.9
11.7
44.5
20,2
39.0
45.4
60.2
76.8
92,4
95.8
88.8
91.8
110.7
126.4
121.8
10.1
11.2
12.1
12.6
41.2
16.3
33.9
40.0
53.8
70.0
85.2
87.7
79.9
81.6
99.6
114.3
109.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
151.9
174.5
182.3
195.0
191.9
216.7
231.6
242.3
236.3
266.0
12.6
14.6
15.8
16.8
17.9
19.1
21.8
23.8
24.8
25.8
139.3
159.9
166.6
178.2
174.0
197.6
209.8
218.5
211.6
240.2
14.1
15.2
16.8
18.2
17.4
19.2
20.8
22.4
22.8
25.4
125.2
144.7
149.7
160.0
156.6
178.4
189.0
196.1
188.8
214.8
94.7
110.2
118.3
128.7
126.5
138.5
151.4
159.1
155.9
171.6
29.6
33.4
30.2
30.0
28.6
38.3
35.9
34.9
30.2
40.1
38.5
39.1
33.8
34.9
32.1
42.0
41.8
39.8
33.7
43.1
16.9
21.2
17.8
18.5
15.6
20.2
20.1
19.1
16.2
20.7
21.6
17.9
16.0
16.4
16.4
21.8
21.8
20.7
17.5
22.4 10.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
277.0
285.0
311.3
331.8
358.4
393.6
431.5
454.1
500.2
544.1
26.8
27.5
28.4
29.4
30.8
32.7
35.6
38.9
42.6
47.1
250.2
257.5
283.0
302.3
327.6
360.9
395.9
415.2
457.6
497.0
28.3
30.1
33.0
35.6
38.4
41.1
42.9
45.8
51.5
58.0
221.9
227.3
249.9
266.8
289.3
319.8
353.0
369.5
406.1
439.1
181.1
185.1
199.8
210.7
226.3
246.1
273.5
291.9
322.8
358.5
37.4
38.3
45.6
51.2
57.7
67.7
72.2
68.8
73.3
67.5
39.7
39.5
44.2
48.9
55.4
65.2
70.3
66.3
72.9
69.4
19.2
19.5
20.6
22.8
24.0
27.2
29.5
27.7
33.4
33.1
20.5
20.1
23.5
26.2
31.4
38.0
40.8
38.6
39.5
36.2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
563.7
609.9
678.0
759.4
818.9
890.0
1,001.3
1,128.4
1,276.2
1,416.8
511.4
52.2
552.6
57.3
615.5
62.6
67.9
691.6
739.4
79.5
795.1
94.9
896.5
104.8
115.7 1,012.7
130.9 1,145.3
149.6 1,267.3
63.4
448.1
70.5
482.1
76.7
538.7
83.7
607.9
649.7
89.7
97.1
697.9
791.2
105.3
900.1
112.6
122.0 1,023.3
130.5 1,136.7
378.4
402.0
447.0
506.2
556.5
581.1
654.4
738.5
844.3
958.1
52.7
62.1
72.7
78.6
63.6
86.1
107.3
129.5
142.1
134.7
1980
1981
1982"
1,537.7
1.732.3
1,779.3
172.0 1,365.7
195.8 1,536.5
213.7 1,565.6
148.6 1,217.1 1,041.7 123.0
178.3 1,358.2 1,150.1 145.6
182.0 1,383.6 1,189.2 121.9
1,501.1
162.7
169.3
175.4
180.8
1,338.4
1,330.5
1,368.2
1,425.7
138.4
143.5
151.3
161.0
1,200.0
1,186.9
1,216.9
1,264.7
1,020.6
1,023.6
1,043.2
1,079.6
186.3
192.6
199.1
205.1
1,497.0
1,522.4
1,564.5
1,562.0
172.9
179.0
179.9
181.3
1,324.0
1,343.4
1,384.5
1,380.8
1,118.6
1,140.0
1,167.0
1,174.5
Year or
quarter
1929
1933
1939
1980:
ll"Z!Z! 1,499 7
I
V
1,543.6
1,606.5
1981:
1
1,683.3
Ill
nZZZ 1,715.0
III
IV
1,763.6
1,767.2
1982:
1
II
Ill
IV "
1,756.6
1,771.0
1,794.4
consumption
adjustment
Domestic income
Total
207.8 1,548.8
212.1 1,559.0
216.0 1,578.4
219.0
Indirect
business
tax,
etc. 1
3.4
3.8
5.1
5.5
6.4
6.8
7.3
8.1
8.9
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments
Total
CompenProfits
Inven- Capital Net
sation
tory
interof
Profits after tax
Profvalua- consump- est
employ- Total Profits
tion
its
tion
ees
before tax
adjustUndistax liabili- Total Divi- tributed adjust- ment
ment
dends profits
ty
32.3
7.5
16.7 - 2 . 1
28.2
4.2
7.4
31.2
39.8 12.7
51.0 17.7
62.2 21.8
65.1 21.6
61.9 17.1
67.2 13.8
79.1 19.7
87.8 25.6
85.3 22.9
8.4
.6
6.1
B.B
16.4
20.1
23.6
22.2
17.8
22.0
29.1
31.8
24.9
1.2
.5
1.4
2.7
7.5
11.2
13.8
12.6
10.2
7.3
.1
4.7
6.1
9.0
8.9
9,8
9.6
7.6
8.6 13.4
10.8
11.8
9.3
18.3
20.0
15.6
2.2
0.5
-1.9
-2.1
1.4 -.7
2.6 =.2
5.0 - 2 . 5
5.2 - 1 . 2
5.8 — 8
5.6 -'.Z
3.5 - . 6
8.6 - 5 . 3
= 1.4
= .6
= 1.1
-1.2
-1.3
= 1.2
-.9
-.3
= .2
=3.0
35
12.8
14.0
= 5.9
-2.2
9.6
1.9
=3.9
-5.0
-1.2
' 1.0
8.8
9.1 - 1 . 0
9.0 = .3
13.4 - 1 . 7
12.7 - 2 . 7
11.4 - 1 . 5
=3.9
=4.6
-4.5
-3.9
-3.2
-2.0
=3.2
=3.4
-3.2
-2.7
14.1
10.8
8.2
-.3
9.9
9.5
-.2
.3
.0
.1
=.5
12.4
-=.3
=2.1
-1.5
1.4
1.7
1,5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.0
.7
.8
.9
1.0
.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.7
2.2
2.7
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.5
4.8
5.3
6.1
7.4
8.7
10.6
10.6
11.4
12.6
13.7
15.6
16.8
17.5
19.1
19.1
12.2
13.5
17.7
22.4
24.0
21.2
20.4
17.1
-1.2
-2.1
-1.6
-3.7
-5.9
56.8
65.4
76.6
96.0
105.3
107.3
135.0
156.5
178.4
191.8
27.0 29.8 18.5
29.8 35.6 18.5
33.6 43.0 20.1
40.0 56.0 21.1
42.0 63.3 21.4
41.2 66.1 25.7
52.6 82.3 30.1
59.6 96.8 31.9
66.9 111.5 37.7
69.2 122.5 39.8
11.3
17.1
22.9
35.0
41.9
40.4
52.2
64.9
73.8
82.8
-6.6
-4.6
-6.6
=20.0
=40.0
-11.6
-=14.7
= 16.2
-24.0
-43.1
183.0
186.6
136.5
64.8 118.2 42.4
63.3 123.3 52.9
40.6 95.9 61.0
75.8 - 4 3 . 0
70.3 - 2 4 . 6
34.9 "9.4
129.6
112.8
121.8
127.7
201.6
157.4
181.3
191.6
74.3
53.5
63.6
67.8
127.3
103.9
117.7
123.8
38.3
42.7
43.5
44.9
89.0
61.2
74.2
78.9
-57.2
-28.2
-41.1
-45.5
- 1 4 . 8 49.8
™ 16.3 50.5
- 1 8 . 4 51.8
= 18.4 57.5
150.4
142.1
151.8
138.2
202.5
181.8
191.5
170.5
71.5
61.4
65.5
54.8
131.0
120.4
126.0
115.7
49.4
51.2
54.4
81.6
69.2
71.6
58.9
-35.5
-22.8
-23.0
-17.1
-16.6
-16.9
= 16.7
= 15.1
176.3 1.372.4 1,181.6 120.3
181.2 1,377.8 1,190.4 114.8
184.2 1,394.2 1,195.8 125.3
1,188.8
186.4
134.8
131.3
139.8
38.9
37.1
42.1
176
56J
95.8 58.0
94.2 59.7
97.6 62.6
63.8
1
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
5.1
2.0
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.8
5.5
6.0
6.0
7.5
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.4
8.5
9.0
9.3
9.3
37.8 - 4 . 4
34.5 -=9.4
35.0 = 10.3
-13.4
1.4
2.3
2.9
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
2.4
1.3
2.7
2.6
=1.8
-9.7
-13.0
= 10.8
-12.3
= 13.9
-17.0
= 16.3
-5.2
10.1
13.1
17.0
18.0
19.1
23.0
29.6
30.8
29.5
32.1
36.9
43,9
52.4
62.5
72.5
55.0
61.2
65.7
68.1
- 1 0 . 0 70.5
= 7.1 72.6
=4.2 73.1
.5 73.8
TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and profits of nonfinancial corporate business, 1948-82
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars)1
Gross domestic
Year or
quarter
nonfinancial
corporate
business (billions
of dollars)
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Total
cost
and
profit2
Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
Indirect
business
tax,
etc. 3
Compensation
of
employees
Corporate profits with
inventory valuation and
capital consumption
adjustments
Net
interest
Total
Profits
tax
liability
Profits
after
tax 4
Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1972
dollars)
Compensation
per hour
of all
employees
(dollars)
1948
1949
137 3
133.5
229 7
219.9
0.598
.607
0 047
.053
0 053
.057
0 382
.388
0112
.104
0 051
.042
0 060
.062
0 004
.004
1950
1951
1952..
1953
1954
151.9
174 5
182.3
195.0
191.9
247.5
2702
275.2
292.0
283.4
.614
646
.663
.668
.677
.051
054
.057
.058
.063
.057
056
.061
.062
.061
.383
408
.430
.441
.446
.120
124
.110
.103
.101
.068
079
.065
.063
.055
051
045
045
.040
.046
.004
004
.004
.004
.005
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959.
216.7
23L6
242.3
236.3
266.0
315.1
324.1
328.3
313.4
347.4
.688
.715
.738
.754
.766
.061
.067
.073
.079
.074
.061
.064
.068
.073
.073
.439
.467
.484
.497
.494
.122
.111
.106
.097
.116
.064
.062
.058
.052
.060
057
.049
048
.045
.056
.005
.005
.007
.009
.009
5.206
5.433
2.589
2.684
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
277.0
285.0
311.3
3318
358.4
358.4
367.2
399.7
4263
455.6
.773
.776
.779
778
.787
.075
.075
.071
069
.068
.079
.082
.083
083
.084
.505
.504
.500
494
.497
.104
.104
.114
120
.127
.054
.053
.052
053
.053
.051
.051
.062
067
.074
.010
.011
.011
Oil
.012
5.536
5.727
5 997
6 248
6.469
2.797
2.887
2.998
3 089
3.213
1965
1966..
1967
1968
1969
393.6
4315
454.1
500.2
544.1
495.2
530.7
543.0
578.9
604.0
.795
.813
.836
.864
.901
.066
.067
.072
.074
.078
.083
.081
.084
.089
.096
.497
.515
.538
.558
.594
.137
.136
.127
.127
.112
.055
056
.051
.058
.055
.082
080
.076
.069
.057
.012
.014
.016
.017
.022
6.673
6.776
6.847
7.074
7.092
3.316
3.492
3.680
3.945
4.209
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
563.7
609.9
678.0
759.4
818.9
599.6
626.8
678.0
731.9
708.2
.940
.973
1.000
1.038
1.156
.087
.091
.092
.093
.112
.106
.113
.113
.114
.127
.631
.641
.659
.692
.786
.088
.099
.107
.107
.090
.045
.047
.049
.055
.059
.043
.052
.058
.053
.030
.028
.029
.028
.031
.042
7.115
7.450
7.664
7.849
7.555
4.491
4.778
5.052
5.429
5.937
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
890.0
10013
1,128.4
1,276.2
1,416.8
694.2
745.5
795.8
846.3
876.1
1.282
1.343
1.418
1.508
1.617
.137
141
.145
.155
.171
.140
141
.141
.144
.149
.837
878
.928
.998
1.094
.124
144
.163
.168
.154
.059
071
.075
.079
.079
.065
073
.088
.089
.075
.044
040
.040
.044
.050
7.774
8 002
8.144
8.217
8.202
6.507
7.024
7.558
8.199
8.970
1980
1981
1982*.
1,537.7
1,732.3
1,779.3
860.3
881.3
856.4
1.787
1.966
2.078
.200
.222
.250
.173
.202
.213
1.211
1.305
1.389
.143
.165
.142
.075
.072
.047
.068
.093
.095
.061
.071
.085
8.169
8.311
9.891
10.846
1,501.1
1,499.7
1,543.6
1,606.5
874.1
847.3
852.5
867.4
1.717
1.770
1.811
1.852
.186
.200
.206
.208
.158
.169
.178
.186
1.168
1.208
1.224
1.245
.148
.133
.143
.147
.085
.063
.075
.078
.063
.070
.068
.069
.057
.060
.061
.066
8.164
8.089
8.192
8.235
9.533
9.771
10.024
10.249
1683 3
l>15.0
1,763.6
1,767.2
883 0
884.2
887.5
870.4
1.906
1.940
1.987
2.030
211
,218
.224
.236
196
.202
.203
.208
1267
1.289
1.315
1.349
170
.161
.171
.159
081
.069
.074
.063
089
.091
.097
.096
.062
.069
.074
.078
8 328
8.320
8.324
8.273
10 551
10.727
10.947
11.163
1,756.6
1,771.0
1,794.4
858.8
857.9
859.3
2.045
2.064
2.088
.242
.247
.251
.205
.211
.214
1.376
1.388
1.392
.140
.134
.146
.045
.043
.049
.095
.091
.097
.082
.085
.085
8.279
8.334
8.429
11.391
11.564
11.730
1980:
II
Ill
IV
1981:
II
III
IV
1982:
\\ZZZZ.
Ill
1
Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two
places to the left.
3
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
4
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
177
TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption expenditures, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Durable goods
Year or quarter
consumption
expenditures
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Furniture
and
Motor
vehicles household
and parts
equipment
Nondurable goods
Other
Food
Clothing
and
shoes
1929
77.3
9.2
37.7
30.3
3.3
4.7
1.2
19.5
9.4
1933
45.8
3.5
22.3
20.1
1.1
1.9
.5
11.5
4.6
1939
67.0
6.7
35.1
25.2
2.3
3.4
1.0
19.1
7.1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
71.0
80.8
88.6
994
108 2
119 5
143 8
161 7
174 7
178 1
7.8
9.7
6.9
6.5
6.7
80
15.8
204
22.9
25.0
37.0
42.9
50.8
58.6
64.3
719
82.7
90.9
96.6
94.9
26.2
28.2
31.0
34.3
37.1
39.6
45.3
50.4
55.3
58.2
2.8
3.5
.7
.8
.8
10
4.1
6.6
8.0
10.6
3.8
4.8
4.6
3.9
3.8
45
8.4
10.6
11.5
11.3
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.5
3.2
33
3.4
3.2
20.2
23.4
28.4
33.2
36.7
406
47.4
52 3
54.2
52.5
7.5
8.8
11.0
13.4
14.6
16 5
18.2
18 8
20.1
19.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
192 0
207 L
217 L
229 1
235 8
253 7
266 0
280 4
289 5
3108
308
29.8
29.1
32.5
31.8
38 6
37.9
39.3
36.8
42.4
98 2
108.8
113.9
116.5
118.0
122.9
128.9
135.2
139.8
146.4
63 0
68.5
74.0
80.6
86.1
92.1
99.2
105.9
112.8
121.9
13 7
12.2
11.3
13.9
13.0
17.8
15.8
17.2
14.8
18.9
13.7
14.0
14.0
14.6
14.6
16.2
17.1
16.9
16.6
17.8
33
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.2
4.6
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.8
539
60.4
63.4
64.4
65.4
67.2
69.9
73.6
76.4
79.1
19 6
21.2
21.9
22.1
22.1
23.1
24.1
24.3
24.7
26.1
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
324 9
335 0
355.2
374 6
400 5
4304
465. L
490 3
536 9
5818
43.1
41.6
46.7
51.4
56.4
63 0
68.0
70.1
80 5
85.7
1511
155.3
161.6
167.1
176.9
188 6
204.7
212.6
230 6
247.8
130.7
138.1
147 0
156.1
167.1
178 7
192.4
207.6
225 8
248.2
19.7
17.8
21.5
24.4
26.1
30 0
30.4
30.1
36 3
38.7
17.7
17.9
18.9
20.3
22.8
24 7
27.7
29.5
32 3
34.1
5.8
5.8
6.3
6.7
7.6
8.3
9.9
10.5
118
13.0
81.1
83.2
85.5
87.8
92.7
98.9
106.6
109.6
118 7
127.5
26.7
27.4
28.7
29.5
31.9
33.5
36.6
38.2
42.1
45.5
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
621.?
672 2
737 1
812 0
888 1
976.4
1 084.3
1,204.4
1 346.5
1,507.2
85.2
97.2
111.1
123.3
1215
132.2
156 8
178.2
200 2
213.4
265.7
278.8
300.6
333 4
373 4
407.3
4417
478.8
528 2
600.0
270.8
296.2
325.3
355 2
393 2
437.0
485 7
547.4
6180
693.7
36.2
45.4
52.4
57.1
50 4
55.8
72 6
84.8
95.7
96.6
35.2
37.2
41.7
47.1
50 6
53.5
591
65.7
72.8
81.8
13.9
14.6
16.9
19.2
20 5
22.9
25.2
27.7
31.7
35.1
138.9
144.2
154.9
172.1
193.7
213.6
230.6
249.8
275.9
311.6
46.8
50.6
55.4
61.4
64.8
69.6
75.3
82.6
92.4
99.1
1980
1981 p
1982
1667 2
1,843.2
1,972.0
214 3
234.6
242.7
670.4
734.5
762.7
782 5
874.1
966.6
89.7
98.6
106.2
86.3
93.4
92.7
38.3
42.6
43.7
343.7
375.3
397.8
104.7
114.6
118.6
1618 7
1622 2
1682 0
1,745.8
220 8
199 0
212 7
224.7
650 6
656 7
673 7
700.5
747 3
766 6
795 6
820.6
97.9
79 2
881
93.7
85 5
83 4
86 0
90.4
37.5
36 4
38 6
40.6
333.9
336 4
346 4
358.0
103.0
102 2
104 8
108.9
1,799.9
1819 4
1,868.8
1,884.5
236 9
230 4
241.2
229.6
720 6
729 6
741.3
746.5
842 4
859 4
886.3
908.3
1021
94 2
104.0
93.9
931
93 3
93.8
93.3
41.7
42 9
43.4
42.4
368.8
3721
378.0
382.3
112.3
114 0
115.9
116.0
1919.4
1947 8
1,986.3
2,034.6
237.9
240.7
240.3
251.7
7491
755 0
768.4
778.3
932.4
9521
977.6
1,004.5
103.2
103 3
104.3
114.1
91.0
93 2
92.7
94.0
43.7
44.2
43.3
43.6
387.9
395 0
401.3
406.8
117.5
118 4
119.1
119.5
1980:
I
til
I
V
1981:
II
III
I
V
1982:
II
III
IV P
See next page for continuation of table.
178
TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption expenditures, 1929-82—Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondurable goods-cont'd
Year or
quarter
Gasoline
and oil
Fuel oil
and coal
Services
Household operation
Other
Housing 1
Total
Electricity
and gas
Other
Transportation
Other
Total
Medical
care
1929
1.8
1.6
5.4
11.7
4.0
1.2
2.9
2.6
12.0
1933
1.5
1.2
3.5
8.1
2.8
1.1
1.7
1.5
7.7
1.5
1939
2.2
1.4
5.3
9.4
3.8
1.4
2.4
2.0
10.0
2.1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
2.3
2.6
2.1
1.3
1.4
1.8
3.4
4.0
4.8
5.3
1.5
1.7
19
2.0
20
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.4
3.1
5.6
6.4
75
8.7
96
10.8
11.3
12.8
14.1
14.7
9.7
10.4
11.2
11.8
12.3
12.8
14.2
16.0
17.9
19.6
4.0
4.3
48
5.2
59
6.4
6.8
7.5
8.1
8.5
1.5
1.5
16
1.7
18
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.9
2.6
2.7
32
3.5
41
4.5
4.7
5.1
5.4
5.6
2.1
2.4
27
3.4
37
4.0
5.0
5.3
5.8
5.9
10.3
11.2
12 2
13.9
15 2
16.4
19.4
21.7
23.6
24.1
2.2
2.4
26
2.9
33
3.6
4.5
5.5
6.3
6.4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
5.5
6.1
6.8
7.4
78
8.6
9.4
10.2
10.6
11.3
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.4
35
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.2
4.0
15.8
17.6
18.3
19.3
19 2
20.3
21.6
23.0
24.0
25.9
21.7
24.3
27.0
29.8
32.2
34.3
36.7
39.3
42.0
45.0
9.5
10.4
11.1
12.0
12 6
14.0
15.2
16.2
17.3
18.5
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.5
50
5.5
6.1
6.5
7.1
7.6
6.2
6.7
7.0
7.5
76
8.5
9.2
9.7
10.2
10.9
6.2
6.7
7.1
7.8
79
8.2
8.6
9.0
9.3
10.1
25.6
27.0
28.8
31.0
33 3
35.6
38.7
41.4
44.3
48.3
6.9
7.3
8.0
8.9
97
10.3
11.0
12.0
13.1
14.3
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
12.0
12.0
12.6
12.9
13.5
14.7
16.0
17.0
18.6
20.7
38
3.7
3.7
4.0
41
4.4
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.5
27 5
29.0
31.1
32.8
34 6
37.2
40.9
43.0
46.5
49.6
48.1
51.2
54.7
58.0
614
65.5
69.5
74.1
79.8
87.0
201
21.0
22.2
23.4
24 8
26.3
28.0
30.0
32.2
35.0
83
8.8
9.4
9.9
10 4
10.9
11.5
12.2
13.1
14.2
118
12.2
12.8
13.6
14 4
15.4
16.5
17.8
19.2
20.8
10 7
11.2
11.7
12.2
12 8
13.7
15.0
16.2
17.6
19.5
517
54.8
58.3
62.5
681
73.3
79.9
87.2
96.2
106.8
15 4
16.4
18.0
19.5
22 3
23.9
26.0
28.4
31.4
36.5
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
22 4
23.9
25.4
28.6
36.6
40.4
44.0
48.1
51.2
66.6
44
4.5
50
6.2
7.7
8.2
9.8
10 7
11.9
16.1
53 2
55.5
59 8
65.0
70.5
75.5
82.1
87 6
96.9
106.6
93 9
102.7
112.5
123.8
137.4
149.8
166.5
1859
209.6
236.0
37 7
41.0
45 2
49.6
55.2
63.3
71.6
811
90.1
99.3
15 4
17.0
18 8
20.5
24.0
29.2
32.9
38 5
42.9
47.8
22 2
24.0
26 4
29.1
31.2
34.1
38.7
42 6
47.2
51.5
22 0
25.1
27 5
28.8
30.9
33.2
38.6
46.4
51.2
56.3
117 2
127.4
1401
153.0
169.8
190.7
209.0
234.1
267.1
302.0
410
45.9
514
57.4
64.5
73.7
83.3
96.5
108.4
124.1
1980
1981 p
1982
87.0
96.8
93.9
19.0
19.7
17.6
116.0
128.2
134.8
266.0
295.3
324.7
111.7
128.9
144.1
56.6
66.8
75.2
55.1
62.1
68.9
62.9
65.4
70.3
341.9
384.4
427.6
143.5
170.9
194.7
1980:
|
II
M
l
IV
82.0
86.1
87.0
92.8
18.8
18.6
19.3
19.2
112.9
113.4
116.2
121.6
254.8
261.6
269.6
278.1
105.1
108.9
114.7
118.2
50.9
54.8
59.2
61.4
54.2
54.1
55.5
56.8
61.2
61.6
64.1
64.6
326.2
334.5
347.2
359.8
134.7
140.6
145.9
152.9
1981:
1
II
III
IV
95.2
96.7
97.7
97.5
20.0
19.9
19.9
19.2
124.3
127.0
129.8
131.5
284.4
291.3
298.7
307.0
120.7
125.2
132.8
136.9
61.9
64.6
69.4
71.2
58.8
60.7
63.5
65.7
66.2
64.3
65.5
65.7
371.1
378.5
389.3
398.7
159.7
166.9
175.6
181.5
1982:
1
II
Ill
IV
95.3
91.3
94.2
94.9
17.3
17.3
18 4
17.6
131.1
133.1
135 4
139.6
314.5
320.4
328.2
335.5
141.4
140.7
145.0
149.3
75.1
72.6
75 2
77.8
66.3
68.1
69.9
71.5
66.9
69.5
71.5
73.4
409.6
421.5
432.9
446.4
186.4
192.1
197 9
202.4
1
Includes imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
179
2.2
TABLE B-15.—Gross private domestic investment, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Change in
Fixed investment
Gross
private
domestic
investment
Year or quarter
Nonresidential
Total
Total
Residential
Structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
Total
Nonfarm
structures
inventories
Farm
structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
Total
Nonfarm
1929.
16.2
14.5
10.6
5.1
5.5
3.9
3.6
0.2
0.1
1.7
1.8
1933.
1.4
3.0
2.4
1.0
1.4
.6
.5
.0
.0
-1.6
~ 1.4
1939.
9.3
8.8
5.9
2.0
3.9
2.9
2.7
.1
.1
.4
.3
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
13.1
17 9
9.9
58
7.2
10 6
30.7
34 0
45.9
35.3
10.9
134
8.1
64
8.1
117
24.3
34 4
41.1
38.4
7.5
94
6.0
5.0
6.9
10.1
16.9
23 0
26.3
24.4
2.3
3.0
1.9
1.4
1.9
2.8
6.9
7.7
9.0
8.7
5.2
64
4.1
3.7
5.0
73
9.9
15.3
17.3
15.7
3.4
4.0
2.2
1.4
1.3
1.5
7.4
11.4
14.9
13.9
3.2
3.6
1.9
1.2
1.1
1.4
6.7
104
13.7
12.8
.2
.2
.1
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
2.2
4.5
1.8
=.6
-1.0
-1.0
6.4
= .5
4.7
-3.1
1.9
40
.7
= 6
= .6
- 6
6.4
13
3.0
=2.2
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52 7
68.4
710
69.2
61.9
78.1
47.0
48.9
49.0
52 9
54 3
62.4
663
67.9
63 4
72.5
27.3
31.3
31.3
34.5
34 2
38.5
44 0
47.0
42 0
45.9
9.5
11.4
11.6
12.9
13 4
14.6
17.7
18.4
17.2
17.6
17.8
19.9
19.7
21.5
20 8
23.9
263
28.6
24 9
28.3
19.8
17.6
17.7
18.4
201
23.9
22.3
20.9
21.4
26.6
18.6
16.4
16.5
17.3
19 0
22.8
21.2
19.7
20.3
25.3
.8
.8
.8
.8
.7
.6
.7
.7
.7
.7
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.5
.5
.5
.6
6.8
10.3
3.1
.4
-1.5
6.0
4.7
1.3
-1.5
5.7
6.0
9.1
2.1
1.1
1960.
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966.
1967
1968
1969
75 9
74.8
85 4
90.9
97 4
113.5
125 7
122.8
133.3
149.3
72 9
72 5
79 2
84.9
917
103.7
1116
112.5
125 4
139.5
48 5
48.0
52 2
54.8
610
72.7
831
83.9
907
101.3
18 8
19.1
20.1
20.5
22 4
27.0
30.1
30.3
32.4
36.7
29 7
28.9
321
34.4
38 7
45.8
53 0
53.7
58 2
64.6
24 5
24.5
27.0
30.1
30.7
30.9
28.5
28.6
34.8
38.2
23 3
23.2
25.8
28.9
29 4
29.6
27.1
27.2
33.3
36.5
.6
.5
.5
.5
.6
.6
7
.7
.9
1.0
3.0
2.3
6.3
6.0
5.6
9.9
14.1
10.3
7.9
9.8
27
2,0
5.5
5.2
6.2
8.9
14.3
9.6
7.8
97
1970.
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977.
1978.
1979
144 2
166.4
195.0
229 8
228.7
2061
257.9
3241
386 6
423.0
1410
158.8
184 8
2113
214 5
213 0
246.0
3010
3601
408.8
103 9
107.9
1210
143 3
156.6
157 7
174.1
205 2
2489
290.2
387
40.5
44.1
510
55.9
554
58.8
64.4
78 7
98.3
65 2
67.4
769
92 3
100.7
102 3
115.3
140 8
1702
191.9
371
50.9
63.8
68 0
57.9
55.3
72.0
95.8
1112
118.6
35.4
48.9
61.5
65 6
54.8
52.4
68.8
92.0
107 0
114.0
7
.7
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.2
7.7
10.2
18.5
14.1
-6.9
11.8
23.0
26.5
14.3
3.1
6.4
9.6
15.2
16.0
™ 10.5
13.9
21.9
25.4
8.6
1980
1981
1982"
402.3
471.5
421.9
412.4
451.1
443 3
309.2
346.1
347.5
110.5
129.7
141.7
198.6
216.4
205.8
103.2
104.9
95.8
98.3
99.7
90.1
1.9
2.1
2.5
3.0
3.2
3.2
= 10.0
20.5
-21.4
=5.7
15.0
=21.6
424 0
3910
384.1
410.3
424 6
3914
405.3
428.0
3112
300 2
307.8
317.5
110 9
1091
109.5
112.6
200 2
1912
198.2
204.9
113.5
912
97.6
110.5
107 4
86 9
93.5
105.4
3.1
14
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
= .7
= 4
-21.2
= 17.7
7
40
-15.4
= 12.3
455 7
475 5
486.0
468.9
443 5
450 9
454.2
455.7
330 0
3413
353.0
360.2
119 6
127 0
132.7
139.6
210 4
214 3
220.2
220.6
113 6
109 5
101.2
95.5
1091
104 7
95.6
89.4
1.3
16
2.4
2.9
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
12.2
24 6
31.8
13.2
10 0
19 3
24.6
6.0
414 8
431.5
443.3
397.9
450 4
447.7
438 6
436.4
357 0
352.2
344.2
336.6
1414
143.6
141.3
140.4
215 6
208.6
203.0
196.2
93 4
95.5
94.3
99.8
87 9
89.6
88.7
94.1
24
2.8
2.4
2.4
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
=35.6
-16.2
4.7
-38.5
=36 0
= 15.0
37
39.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956.
1957
1958.
1959
. .
1980:
(
||
II
I
IV
.2
.1
.5
.7
.9
.8
.6
.7
.6
.7
!6
.6
.3
.3
=•21
5.5
5.1
.8
=2.3
57
1981:
||
II
I
IV
1982:
I
II
III.
IV P
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
180
TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private domestic investment, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars]
fIquals: Net private domestic investment
Less:
conGross sumption
private
allowdomesances
tic
with
invest- capital
ment
consumption
adjustment
Year
fYet fixed investment
Nonresidential
Total
Total
Structures
Total
Change
Residential
Producers'
durable
equipment
Total
Nonfarm
structures
Farm
structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
business
inventories
1929
16.2
9.7
6.5
4.8
3.1
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.7
-0.1
0.0
1.7
1933
1.4
7.4
-6.0
45
-3.5
16
18
10
9
-.1
-.0
-1.6
1939
9.3
8.7
.6
.1
6
10
.3
.8
.8
-.0
.0
.4
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
13.1
17.9
9.9
58
7.2
10 6
30.7
34 0
45.9
35.3
9.1
10.0
11.2
11.5
11.7
12.2
14.0
17.3
20.2
21.8
4.1
7.9
-1.3
-5 7
-4.6
-16
16.6
16 6
25.6
13.5
1.9
3.4
30
-5.0
36
-.6
10.3
17.1
20.9
16.6
.7
2.0
-2.5
-3.5
-1.7
13
6.6
102
11.3
8.1
7
-.3
17
-2.6
20
1.2
2.4
2.1
2.7
2.3
1.4
22
7
_9
.3
24
4.2
82
8.6
5.8
1.2
15
-.6
-1.6
-1.9
-18
3.7
6.8
9.7
8.5
1.1
14
-.5
-14
-1.7
-16
3.4
64
9.1
7.9
.0
0
-.1
_ l
-.1
_ 2
.0
2.2
45
1.8
6
-1.0
10
6.4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957..
1958..
1959...
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52 7
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
78.1
23.5
27.2
29.3
31.0
32 7
34.8
38.7
41.7
43.5
44.9
30.3
32.0
22.8
22.4
20 0
33.6
32.3
27.5
18.4
33.2
23.5
21.7
19.7
21.9
216
27.6
27.6
26.1
19.9
27.5
9.6
10.7
9.1
10.8
91
11.9
13.9
14.3
8.1
10.6
2.9
3.9
3.8
4.8
5.1
5.9
7.9
7.9
6.4
6.4
6.7
6.7
5.3
6.0
40
6.0
6.0
6.4
1.8
4.2
13.9
11.0
10.6
11.1
12.5
15.7
13.7
11.8
11.8
16.9
13.4
10.6
10.3
10.8
12 2
15.6
13.4
11.7
11.6
16.7
75.9
74.8
85.4
90.9
97.4
113.5
125.7
122.8
133.3
149.3
46.3
47.5
49.0
50.6
52.9
56.0
60.7
65.9
72.1
80.0
29.6
27.3
36.5
40.3
44.5
57.5
65.0
57.0
61.2
69.3
26.7
24.9
30.2
34.4
38.9
47.6
50.9
46.6
53.3
59.5
12.3
10.9
14.0
15.3
19.7
28.9
35.4
31.9
33.6
38.1
7.3
7.3
7.9
7.8
9.1
12.9
14.8
13.8
14.5
16.6
5.0
3.6
6.1
7.5
10.6
16.0
20.6
18.2
19.1
21.5
14.4
14.0
16.2
19.0
19.1
18.7
15.5
14.7
19.8
21.3
14.3
13.9
16.1
18.8
18.9
18.6
15.3
14.5
19.6
21.0
-.0
.1
.0
,0
.0
-.0
.0
.0
-.1
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
144 2
166.4
195.0
229.8
228 7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
881
96.5
106.4
116.5
136 0
159.3
175.0
195.2
222.5
256.0
56 2
69.9
88.6
113 3
92 7
46.8
82.8
128.9
164.1
167.0
52 9
62.3
78.4
94 8
78 5
53.7
71.0
105.9
137.7
152.7
33 9
31.1
37.0
519
49 2
30.3
34.3
50.7
73.6
89.0
16 3
15.6
16.6
20.7
18 9
13.1
14.1
16.0
23.3
33.7
17 6
15.5
20.4
312
30 3
17.3
20.2
34.7
50.4
55.3
19.0
31.2
41.3
42.9
29.3
23.4
36.8
55.2
64.0
63.7
18 9
30.9
40.9
42.5
28 4
23.1
36.5
54.5
63.3
63.2
-.0
-.2
-.2
-.2
-.4
.2
-.2
-.2
.1
.1
-.2
1980
1981 p
1982
402 3
471.5
421.9
293 2
330.1
356.8
1091
141.4
65.1
119.1
121.0
86.5
77 3
82.9
60.9
36.0
45.9
49.5
41.3
37.0
11.5
41.8
38.1
25.6
41.4
37.7
25.1
-.2
-.1
.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965..
1966
1967
1968
1969
. .
. .
. . ..
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
181
3
.4
.4
.3
.3
.3
2
.0
.1
.1
.1
.1
-.0o
-.1
- 1
.1
2
.2
.1
.2
.1
,\
,1
.1
.1
.1
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
.2
'.2
A
A
'.6
.7
.7
.5
.6
.6
.6
.5
.2
4.7
-3.1
6.8
10.3
3.1
A
-1,5
6.0
4.7
1.3
-1.5
5.7
3.0
2.3
6.3
6.0
5.6
9.9
14.1
10.3
7.9
9.8
3.2
7.7
10.2
18.5
14.1
-6.9
11,8
23.0
26.5
14.3
-10.0
20.5
-21.4
TABLE B-17.—Inventories and final sales of business, 1946-82
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; seasonally adjusted]
Inventories1
Honfarm
Year and quarter
Fourth quarter:
1946
1947
1948
1949
Total
Farm
Total
Manu- Wholesale
facturing trade
Final
sales •
Retail
trade
Inventory—final
sales ratio
Total
Other
Nonfarm 3
72.0
82.6
87.2
78.7
22 7
25.1
22 9
19.8
49.3
57.5
64.3
59.0
26 7
29.3
32.5
28.9
10.1
10.5
11.7
11.8
11.4
13.1
15.1
14.0
3.5
4.6
5.0
4.3
160
18.3
19.6
19.5
4,50
4.51
4.44
4.03
3 08
3.14
3 27
3.02
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
98 0
110.5
109 2
110.1
107.6
261
28.3
260
24.6
23.8
35 2
43.4
44 4
46.4
44.3
13.8
14.6
14.8
15.0
15.3
17 5
18.0
17.7
18.3
18.5
4.53
4.49
4.18
4.05
3.91
3 32
3.34
318
3.15
3.05
114 8
124.0
127 6
127.3
132.0
22 5
22.9
24 3
25.6
24.4
48 8
54.5
548
53.2
55.7
16.6
17.9
18.2
18.3
20.0
20.9
21.7
22.9
22.9
23.9
5.4
6.1
6.2
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.9
7.3
7.3
8.0
217
24.6
26,1
27.2
27.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
719
82.2
83.1
85.5
83.9
92.2
101.0
103.3
101.7
107.6
29.7
31.4
32.7
33.7
35.6
3.86
3.95
3.90
3.77
3.71
310
3.22
316
3.01
3.02
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
136 0
137.9
144 6
150.4
156.2
1104
112.1
117 3
122.7
129.7
56 6
57.7
60 9
62.9
66.4
204
, 20.9
21.5
23.1
24.4
25 3
24.9
26 3
27.6
29.0
8.1
8.7
8.6
9.2
9.9
369
38.8
411
43.7
46.2
3.69
3.55
3 52
3.44
3.38
299
2.89
2 85
2.81
2.81
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
170.5
187.4
199.4
213.5
234.6
25 6
25.9
27 3
27.6
26.5
29.9
296
29.5
306
33.3
140.6
157.8
169.9
1829
201.3
71.5
817
88.7
952
104.8
26.3
29.9
32.4
34.3
37.7
31.9
34.6
35.3
390
42.8
10.9
11.6
13.5
14.4
16.0
51.0
54.1
57.6
63 3
67.4
3.34
3.46
3.46
3.37
3.48
2.76
2.92
2.95
2 89
2.99
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
244.0
260.8
288 7
357.7
434.4
32.3
36.7
45 6
66.6
62.4
211.6
224.1
2431
291.2
372.0
41.7
44.9
494
60.2
76.9
44.3
50.5
55 7
64.8
74.1
17.3
18.8
212
25.0
31.3
70.8
77.2
85 8
94.5
102.0
3.45
3.38
3.37
3.79
4.26
2.99
2.90
283
3.08
3.65
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
439.4
473 6
519.5
602 3
705.0
64 5
606
59.9
739
81.9
374.9
4130
459.6
528 3
623.1
108.4
109.9
116 8
141.1
189.6
189 8
207 5
224.7
254 2
306.6
77.3
86 9
98.7
114 6
135.7
74 6
82 9
93.7
1090
121.0
33.3
357
42.5
50.6
59.8
113.6
1241
138.9
159 5
176.9
3.87
3.82
3.74
3.78
3.99
3.30
3 33
3.31
3.31
3.52
1980
1981
1982 p
776.0
822.4
806.1
86.9
818
80.6
689.1
740 5
725.5
342.6
366 4
346.9
153.0
163.0
162.1
127.7
140 7
141.8
65.7
70.5
74.8
194.9
2104
221.5
3.98
3.91
3.64
3.54
3.52
3.28
724.1
737 2
757.3
776.0
79.0
811
86.2
86.9
645.1
6561
671.1
689.1
321.0
3281
333.2
342.6
140.5
144 0
148.5
153.0
121.3
122 4
126.1
127J
62.2
615
63.4
65.7
182.0
1812
188.2
194.9
3.98
4.07
4.02
3.98
3.54
3 62
3.57
3.54
III
IV
791.6
804.2
814.3
822.4
85.9
86.5
81.5
81.8
705.7
717.7
732.8
740.5
352.6
357.2
365.1
366.4
156.5
158.1
159.5
163.0
129.0
134.2
139.1
140.7
67.6
68.3
69.1
70.5
201.8
203.3
208.5
210.4
3.92
3.96
3.91
3.91
3.50
3.53
3.51
3.52
1982:
|
||
11
1
IV P
809.7
812.5
816.0
806.1
84.5
86.4
83.5
80.6
725.2
726.1
732.5
725.5
358.1
352.7
351.3
346.9
158.4
160.8
161.9
162.1
137.6
140.2
145.6
141.8
71.1
72.4
73.7
74.8
213.8
215.5
217.1
221.5
3.79
3.77
3.76
3.64
3.39
3.37
3.37
3.28
1980:
II
Ill
IV
1981:
•I
1
End of quarter.
8
Quarterly totals at monthly rates. Business final sales equals final sales less gross product of households and institutions,
government, and rest of the world, and includes a small amount of final sales by farms.
3
Ratio based on total business final sales, which includes a small amount of final sales by farms.
Note.—The industry classification of inventories is on an establishment basis and is based on the 1972 Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC) beginning 1948 and on the 1942 SIC prior to 1948.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
182
TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final sales of business in 1972 dollars,
1947-82
[Billions of 1972 dollars, except as noted; seasonally adjusted]
Inventories'
Year and quarter
Fourth quarter:
1947
1948
1949
ftonfarm
Total
Farm
Total
Manu- Wholesate
facturing trade
Retail
trade
Final
sales 2
Other
Inventory—final
sales ratio
Total
Nonfarm3
116.1
1216
117.2
25.7
26 7
26.2
90.5
94 8
91.0
47.4
48 8
46.2
16.0
17 2
17.2
18.3
203
19.8
8.7
86
7.8
33.2
34 4
34.6
3.50
3 53
3.38
2.73
2 76
2.63
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
127.7
1414
145.7
147.2
145.0
27.5
291
30.4
30 2
31.1
100.2
112 3
115.4
117.1
114.0
49.3
60 0
62.7
645
60.9
19.2
19 7
20.1
203
20.6
23.0
23 0
23.0
23.6
23.7
8.7
9.5
9.6
8.7
8.8
36.9
39 8
41.6
43.0
43.1
3.46
3 55
3.51
342
3.36
2.72
2 82
2.78
2 72
2.64
1955
1956
1957..
1958
1959
152 8
158.6
1601
158.3
165.3
315
30.7
314
32.4
32.4
1212
127.8
128.7
125.9
132.9
221
22.8
22 5
22.5
24.6
26.5
26.8
27.8
27.5
28.7
3 35
3.41
340
3.29
3.33
2 66
2.75
2 73
2.62
2.68
168.8
171.8
179.7
187.2
194.3
32.8
33.2
34.5
35 7
35.1
136.1
138.6
145.2
151.5
159.2
25.1
25.7
26.6
284
29.9
30.3
29.8
31.6
33.0
34.5
8.4
9.2
9.8
9.8
10.5
10.7
11.4
11.4
12.0
12.8
45 6
46.5
47.1
48.1
49.7
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
643
69.1
68 7
66.1
69.1
69.9
71.7
75.6
78 2
82.0
50.7
53.1
55.3
58 3
60.9
3.33
3.24
3.25
3 21
3.19
2.68
2 61
2.62
2 60
2.61
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
206.1
222.9
2351
244.1
255.1
36.2
36.0
36 8
37.0
37.3
169.9
186.8
198 3
207.0
217.8
87.0
97.2
1041
108.4
112.8
37.4
40.0
40.0
43.0
45.9
13.8
14.3
16.3
16.8
17.9
258 9
267.0
277 2
294.4
306.0
37 7
39.2
39 8
42.1
41.8
2212
227.8
237 4
252.3
264.2
112 9
111.8
114 4
1218
130.9
46.1
51.2
54.6
58.8
58.3
18.2
19.0
20.5
21.4
20.9
66.1
67.5
701
73.8
74.7
75.2
78.9
84.7
87.2
85.0
3.12
3.30
3 36
3.31
3.41
344
3.38
3.27
3.38
3.60
2.57
2.77
2 83
2.81
2.92
1970
1971
1972..
1973
1974
31.6
35.3
37 8
38.9
41.2
440
45.9
47 9
50.4
54.1
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
299 2
307 0
320.3
336 3
343.6
43 0
411
40.8
40 8
43.2
256 3
265 9
279.5
295 5
300.4
1271
1309
134.1
139 8
145.0
52 2
555
59.7
63 5
64.7
55.8
58 8
63.1
67.3
66.1
21.1
20.8
22.6
24.9
24.6
88.1
92.2
97.6
103.0
105.4
3.40
3.33
3.28
3.27
3.26
2.91
2.88
2.86
2.87
2.85
1980
1981 p
1982
338 6
347.6
339.1
411
43.2
43.3
297 5
304.4
295.7
145 9
148.4
141.0
65 0
66.5
65.7
63.0
66.1
65.4
23.6
23.4
23.6
105.0
104.6
105.5
3.22
3.32
3.21
2.83
2.91
2.80
342 9
342.3
340.2
338 6
43 0
42.4
41.7
411
299.9
299.9
298.4
297.5
146.6
147.4
146.3
145.9
64.6
64.9
65.0
65.0
64.2
63.7
63.5
63.0
24.5
23.8
23.6
23.6
105.8
102.7
103.7
105.0
3.24
3.33
3.28
3.22
2.84
2.92
2.88
2.83
339 2
342.3
346.4
347.6
412
41.7
42.4
43 2
298 0
300.6
304.0
304.4
146 9
147.5
149.4
1484
646
65.1
65.4
66 5
62.8
64.6
65.9
66.1
23.6
23.4
23.3
23.4
106.4
105.2
105.5
104.6
3.19
3.25
3.28
3.32
2.80
2.86
2.88
2.91
343.7
342 6
343 5
339.1
43.3
43.1
433
43.3
300.5
299.5
300.2
295.7
146.4
144.6
143.3
141.0
65.3
65.8
66.1
65.7
65.1
65.4
67.2
65.4
23.6
23.7
23.7
23.6
105.0
104.6
104.3
105.5
3.27
3.28
3.29
3.21
2.86
2.86
2.88
2.80
1980:
11
I
M
IV
1981:
N
HI
IV
1982:
It
Ill
IV
1
2
2 94
2.89
2 80
2.89
3.11
End of quarter.
Quarterly totals at monthly rates. Business final sales equals final sales less gross product of households and institutions,
government, and rest of world, and includes a small amount of final sales by farms.
3
Ratio based on total business final sales, which includes a small amount of final sales by farms.
NOte.—The industry classification of inventories is on an establishment basis and is based on the 1972 Standard Industrial
Classification {SIC) beginning 1948 and on the 1942 SIC prior to 1948.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
183
TABLE B-19.—Relation of gross national product, net national product, and national income, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross
national
product
Year or quarter
Less:
Less:
Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
Equals:
Net
national
product
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
liability
Business
transfer
payments
Statistical
discrepancy
PIUS:
Subsidies
less
current
surplus
of
government
enterprises
Equals:
National
income
1929
103.4
9.7
93.7
7.1
0.6
1.1
-0.2
1933
55.8
7.4
48.4
7.1
.7
.7
--.0
39.9
1939
90.9
8.7
82.2
9.4
.5
1.4
.4
71.4
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
100.0
125.0
158.5
192.1
210.6
212.4
209.8
233.1
259 5
258.3
9.1
10.0
11.2
11.5
11.7
12.2
14.0
17.3
20.2
21.8
91.0
115.0
147.3
180.7
198.9
200.2
195.8
215.7
239.3
236.5
10.1
11.3
11.8
12.8
14.2
15.5
17.1
18.4
20.1
21.3
.4
.5
.5
5
.5
.5
.5
.6
.7
.8
1.1
.6
=.8
.4
.1
79.7
102.7
135.9
169.3
182.1
180.7
178.6
194.9
219.9
213.6
286.5
3308
348.0
366.8
366.8
400.0
421.7
444.0
449.7
487.9
23.5
27.2
29.3
31.0
32.7
34.8
38.7
41.7
43.5
44.9
263.0
303.6
318.7
335.8
334.1
365.3
383.0
402.3
406.2
443.0
23.4
25.3
.8
.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
14
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
506 5
524.6
565 0
596.7
637.7
691.1
756 0
799.6
873 4
944.0
46 3
47.5
49 0
50.6
52.9
56.0
60 7
65.9
72.1
80.0
460 2
477.0
5161
546.1
584.8
635.0
6953
733.7
801.3
864.0
86.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
992 7
1,077.6
1185.9
1,326.4
1,434.2
1 549.2
1,718.0
1,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
881
96.5
106.4
116.5
136.0
159.3
175.0
195.2
222.5
256.0
904 7
981.1
1 079.5
1,209.9
1,298.2
1 389.9
1,543.0
1,723.2
1,941.4
2,161.7
94 3
103.7
111.5
120.9
129.1
140.1
151.7
165.7
178.2
189.6
41
4.4
4.9
2 633.1
2,937.7
3,057.5
293.2
330.1
356.8
2 339 9
2,607.6
2,700.8
2,575.9
2 573 4
2*643 7
2J39.4
278.4
289,2
298 6
306.6
IV
2 864.9
2 901.8
2,980.9
3,003.2
1982:
I
II
Ill
IV "
2,995.5
3,045.2
3 088.2
3J01.3
.
,
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
195S
1957
1958
1959
1980
1981
1982
. . . .
„„
...
. .
p
111
29.7
29.6
32.2
35.1
37.5
38.7
41.8
Ill
IV
2.7
4.1
.5
1.5
=1.6
.6
1.3
3.2
1.7
2.3
2.0
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.8
= 2.1
= 1.2
.2
= 1.3
20
-2.4
2.0
21
2.4
2.7
2.8
30
3.1
34
3.9
•=.1
.1
.6
.7
.9
-.2
-.1
= .3
.1
= .1
-.3
-.5
-,0
.7
1.1
415.7
428.8
462.0
488.5
524.9
572.4
628.1
662.2
722.5
779.3
•-1.5
4.1
3.3
2.9
2.6
3.8
5.5
5.8
7.4
7.9
8.6
9.3
10.3
.8
3.7
5.5
5.1
1.4
= 2.6
-1.5
3.4
1.1
2.4
1.0
3.1
3.7
3.4
810.7
871.5
963.6
1,086.2
1,160.7
1,239.4
1,379.2
1,550.5
1,760.3
1,966.7
213.0
251.3
258.8
114
12.4
13.7
3.9
-1.9
.1
5.5
6.6
8.3
2,117.1
2,352.5
2,436.5
2,297.5
2 284 3
2 345 0
2,432.9
200.1
206.7
216 3
228.9
11.0
113
115
10.5
3.8
11.8
-1.0
2,079.7
2,067.2
2,122.3
2,199.2
315.4
325 0
335.2
344.8
2 549.5
2 576 8
2,645.8
2,658.4
244.6
252 0
253.3
255.3
12 0
12 2
12.5
12.8
5.1
5.8
-.8
=7.2
6.5
7.0
348.7
353.9
359.4
365.0
2,646.7
2,691.2
2,728.9
2,736.3
250.2
256.7
261.7
266.5
13.1
13.5
13.8
14.3
-7.5
6.0
516
54.6
58.8
62.6
65 3
70.2
789
2.1
1.7
.1
= 1.2
1.4
= .3
-2.1
=3.9
3.8
2.2
4.7
7.4
6.0
1981:
It
III
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
237.6
274.1
287.9
302.1
301.1
330.5
349.4
365.2
366.9
400.8
.4
1.7
1.8
1.1
1.7
1.6
2.5
1.6
1.4
1.9
45 4
48.0
1980:
II
-=1.8
84.8
184
4.6
.8
3.6
7.2
4.9
5.8
16.5
2,293.7
2 324.4
2[387.3
2,404.5
2,396.9
2,425.2
2,455.6
TABLE B-20.—Relation of national income and personal income, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Less:
Year or quarter
National
income
Plus:
Corporate
profits
with
inventory
valuation
and
capital
consumption
adjustments
Net
interest
Contributions for
social
insurance
0.2
1929
84.8
9.0
4.7
1933
39.9
-1.7
4.1
1939
71.4
5.3
3.6
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
79.7
102.7
135.9
169.3
182.1
180.7
178.6
194.9
219.9
213.6
8.6
14.1
19.3
23.5
23.6
19.0
16.6
22.3
29.4
27.1
3.3
3.3
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.2
1.8
2.3
2.4
2.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
237.6
274.1
287.9
302.1
301.1
330.5
349.4
365.2
366.9
400.8
33.9
38.7
36.1
36.3
35.2
45.5
43.7
43.3
38.5
49.6
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
415.7
428.8
462.0
488.5
524.9
572.4
628.1
662.2
722.5
779.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 P
GovernWage
ment
accruals transfer
less
disburse- payments
to
ments
persons
0.0
Equals:
Personal Personal Business
interest dividend transfer
income income payments
Personal
income
0.9
6.9
5.8
85.0
1.5
5.5
2.0
47.0
2.1
2.5
5.4
3.8
72.4
2.3
2.8
3.5
4.5
5.2
6.1
6.1
5.8
5.4
5.9
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.5
3.1
5.6
10.8
11.2
10.6
11.7
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.9
6.6
7.6
8.1
8.7
4.0
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2
77.9
95.4
122.6
150.8
164.5
170.0
177.6
190.1
209.0
206.4
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.4
5.3
5.9
6.6
7.9
9.6
10.3
7.1
8.5
9.0
9.1
10.1
11.5
12.9
14.9
15.2
18.0
14.4
11.6
12.1
12.9
15.1
16.2
17.3
20.1
24.3
25.2
9.7
10.5
11.2
12.5
13.7
14.9
16.7
18.8
20.3
22.5
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.2
.8
.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
227.2
254.9
271.8
287.7
289.6
310.3
332.6
351.0
361.1
384,4
47.6
48.6
56.6
62.1
69.2
80.0
85.1
82.4
89.1
85.1
11.4
13.0
14.7
16.4
18.3
21.0
24.4
27.6
30.0
34.8
21.1
21.9
24.3
27.3
28.7
30.0
38.8
43.4
47.9
55.0
27.0
30.8
31.6
33.4
34.8
37.6
41.6
49.5
56.4
62.8
25.0
26.4
29.0
32.2
35.6
39.7
44.4
48.3
53.4
61.1
12.9
13.3
14.4
15.5
17.3
19.1
19.4
20.2
21.9
22.4
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.9
402.3
417.8
443.6
466.2
499.2
5407
588.2
630.0
690.6
754.7
810.7
871.5
963.6
1,086.2
1,160.7
1,239.4
1,379.2
1,550.5
1,760.3
1,966.7
71.4
83.2
96.6
108.3
94.9
110.5
138.1
167.3
192.4
194.8
41.4
46.5
51.2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
102.5
121.7
153.8
58.6
64.6
74.2
92.4
104.3
110.9
126.0
140.6
161.8
186.9
76.1
90.0
99.8
114.0
135.4
170.9
186.4
199.3
214.6
240.0
69.4
74.8
80.9
93.9
112.4
123.2
132.5
152.8
179.4
218.7
22.2
22.6
24.1
26.5
29.1
29.9
36.5
39.6
45.3
50.8
4.1
4.4
4.9
5.5
5.8
7.4
7.9
8.6
9.3
10.3
811.1
868.4
951.4
1,065.2
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,117.1
2,352.5
2,436.5
181.6
190.6
161.1
187.7
235.7
265.3
204.0
238.1
253.7
285.8
323.9
360.8
263.4
329.0
371.8
55.9
62.5
67.0
11.4
12.4
13.7
2,160.4
2,415.8
2,569.7
2,079.7
2,067.2
2,122.3
2,199.2
195.3
172.2
177.8
181.2
175.7
181.6
190.4
203.0
199.4
200.5
204.6
211.3
263.2
271.9
301.8
306.5
249.1
258.0
266.4
280.2
54.1
55.7
56.5
57.4
11.0
11.3
11.5
11.8
2,086.8
2,109.6
2,185.3
2,260.0
2,293.7
2,324.4
2,387.3
2,404.5
200.3
185.1
193.1
183.9
217.6
231.6
244.0
249.5
232.5
236.2
240.3
243.5
310.8
314.8
332.3
337.9
304.7
320.6
339.6
351.0
59.2
61.5
64.1
65.2
12.0
12.2
12.5
12.8
2,330.0
2,380.6
2,458.2
2,494.6
2,396.9
2,425.2
2,455.6
157.1
155.4
166.2
258.7
267.5
268.1
267.0
250.8
253.0
255.2
255.8
341.4
351.7
367.2
382.9
359.7
372.0
378.2
377.2
65.8
66.1
67.2
68.8
13.1
13.5
13.8
14.3
2,510.5
2,5527
2,592.5
2.623.2
1980:
\\ZZ
III
IV
1981:
III
IV
1982:
I
II
Ill
IV ".
..
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
185
TABLE B-21.—National income by type of income, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
Compensation
of employees
Year or
quarter
National
income1
Total
Wages
and
salaries
Supplements
to
wages
and
salaries 2
Nonfarm
Farm
Total
Total
Proprietors'
income3
Capital
consumption
adjustment
Total
Proprietors'
Income4
Inven- Capital
tory consumpvaluation
tion
adjustadjustment
ment
1929
1933
1939
84 8
39 9
71.4
51.1
29 5
48.1
50.5
29 0
46.0
0.6
5
2.1
15.0
59
11.8
6.1
2.5
4.4
6.3
2.6
4.5
0.2
-.0
8.9
33
7.4
8.8
39
7.6
01
5
•= 2
1940
1941.
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
521
64.8
85 3
109.5
1212
123.1
1181
129.2
141.4
141.3
499
62.1
82,1
105.8
116 7
117.5
112 0
123.1
135.5
134.7
23
27
32
3.8
45
5.6
60
6.1
5.9
6.6
13 0
17.5
24.2
29.1
304
31.8
36 7
35.9
40.9
36.4
4.4
6.4
10.1
12.0
12.0
12.4
14.9
15.1
17.6
12.8
4.5
6.5
10.3
12.2
12.2
12.7
15.2
15.7
18.2
13.5
-.1
-.2
-.2
8.6
11.1
14.1
17.1
18.4
19.4
21.8
20.8
23.3
23.6
86
117
14.4
17.1
18.3
19.3
23.3
21.8
23.1
22.2
»0
= .6
= 4
=.2
= 1
=.1
-1.7
-1.5
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
79 7
102.7
135 9
169.3
1821
180 7
178 6
194 9
219.9
213.6
237.6
274.1
287.9
3021
301.1
330.5
349.4
365 2
366.9
400.8
154.8
181.0
195.7
209 6
208.4
224.9
243.5
256 5
258.2
279.6
147.0
171.3
185.3
198.5
196.8
2117
228.3
239 3
240.5
258.9
7.8
9,7
10.4
110
11.6
13.2
15.2
17 2
17.7
20.6
38.7
43.2
43.4
41.8
41.2
42.9
43.9
45 3
47.7
47.6
13.7
16.1
15.1
13.1
= 7
-.8
-.8
-.8
25.0
27.2
28.2
286
287
31.4
32.7
34.2
34.5
367
25.1
26.4
26.9
27 6
27.6
30.5
31.8
33.1
33.2
35.3
-1.1
-.3
13.2
10.9
14.4
16.9
16.0
13.9
13.3
12.2
12.1
12.1
14.1
11.9
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
4157
428.8
462.0
488.5
524.9
572.4
628.1
662.2
722.5
779.3
294 9
303.6
325.1
342.9
368.0
396.5
439.3
471.4
519.9
572.9
2719
279.5
298,0
313.4
336.1
362.0
398.4
427.0
469.6
5157
23 0
24.1
271
29.5
31.8
34.5
40.9
44.4
50.3
57.2
47 2
48.6
49 9
50.5
52.5
56.9
60.5
61.2
64.0
67.0
117
12.1
12 3
12.0
10.8
13.1
14.1
12.6
127
14.6
12.6
12.9
13.0
12.8
11.5
13.8
14.9
13.5
137
15.7
34.2
35.3
36.4
37.2
40.2
42.7
45.3
47.5
50.6
51.9
.0
.0
= .0
= .0
=.1
-.9
-1.0
-1.2
35.5
36.5
37.6
38.5
417
43.8
46.4
48.6
51.3
52.5
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
810.7
871.5
963 6
1,086.2
1,160 7
1,239.4
1,379 2
1,550.5
1,7603
1,9667
612.0
652.2
718 0
801.3
877 5
931.4
1,036 3
1,152.1
1,3011
1,458.1
548.7
581.5
635 2
702.6
765 2
806.4
889 9
983.2
1106 5
1,237.4
63.2
70.7
82 8
987
112 3
125.0
146 4
168.9
194 6
2207
66.2
69.4
769
93.8
88,7
90.0
941
103.9
118,5
132.1
14.3
15.0
187
32.8
26 5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26 3
31.9
15.6
16.4
204
34.6
29.0
28.0
22.8
23.3
31.3
37.8
-1.3
-1.4
-1.6
-1.8
-2.5
-3.4
-3.7
-4.3
-5.0
-5.9
51.9
54.4
58.1
61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
517
54.5
58.1
62.3
65.8
67.4
77.1
86.8
94.9
103.2
1980
1981
1982 P
2,117.1
2,352.5
2,436.5
1,598.6
1,767.6
1,855.9
1,356.1
1,494.0
1,560.1
242.5
273.6
295.8
116.3
124.7
120.1
19.4
24.0
18.6
26.4
31.8
26.8
-7.0
-7.9
-8.1
96.9
1007
101.4
99.9
100.3
94.6
-=3.1
-1.6
2.079 7
2,067.2
2,122.3
2,199.2
1,555 2
1,571.7
1,604.9
1,662.8
1319 5
1,332.1
1,361.0
1,411.7
235 7
239.6
243.9
251.0
122 7
108.9
115.5
118.0
22.1
15.9
20.3
19.2
28.7
22.9
27.5
26.5
-6.6
-7.0
-7.2
-7.3
100.5
93.0
95.1
98.8
104.9
95.1
98.2
101.4
4.3
=2.0
-3.1
=3.0
.0
-.2
.0
.5
2,293.7
2,324.4
2,387.3
2,404.5
1,718.0
1.750.0
1,789.1
1,813.4
1,452.8
1,479.4
1,512.6
1,531.1
265.2
270.6
276.5
282.3
123.4
123.8
127.5
124.1
21.6
22.5
27.1
24.6
29.1
30.3
35.1
32.8
-7.5
-7.8
-8.0
-8.2
101.8
101.2
100.4
99.5
103.2
100.9
99.3
97.7
-2.5
-1.4
-1.2
-1.2
1.2
1.8
2,3
3.0
2,396.9
2,425.2
2,455.6
1,830.8
1,850.7
1,868.3
1,873.7
1,541.5
1,558.6
1,570.0
1,572.3
289.3
294.1
298.3
301.4
116.4
117.3
118.4
128.1
17.8
17.4
16.6
22.6
26.0
25.5
247
30.8
-8.2
-8.1
-8.1
-8.2
98.6
99.9
101.7
105.5
93.8
94.5
94.4
957
.0
= 1.0
47
6.4
7.9
10.3
n'i
11.2
n.i
=.3
-.3
-.3
=.5
-.6
-.7
-.9
-.9
-.9
= 1.0
-.9
-.8
-.8
-7
-.7
-.7
= 2
=.0
= 3
=.1
= .0
l!2
-.2
=.'5
= .'6
=2.0
-37
-1.2
-1.2
= 1.2
=2.0
= 2.9
=01
o
o
.0
-.0
1
.2
,2
.2
2
.5
.6
.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1,2
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.1
.8
.4
.8
.6
,1
= 8
-.9
-.7
= .1
.1
7.3
1980:
||
Ill
IV
1981:
II
Ill
IV
1982:
1.
Ill
IV
1
-A
National income is the total net income earned in production, ft differs from gross national product mainly in that it excludes
depreciation charges and other allowances for business and institutional consumption of durable capital goods and indirect business
taxes. See Table B 19.
2
Employer contributions for social insurance and to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors'
fees; and a few other minor items.
See next page for continuation of table.
186
TABLE B-21.—National income by type of income, 1929-82—Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Rental income of persons
with capital consumption
adjustment
Year or quarter
Total
Capital
Rental
conincome
sumption
of
adjustpersons
ment
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without
capital consumption adjustment
Profits
Total
Profits after tax
Total
Profits Profits
tax
before
taxes liability
Total
Divi- Undisdends tributed
profits
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
Capital
Net
consumption interest
adjustment
1929
1933
1939
4.9
2.2
2.6
5.7
2.3
3.1
-0.8
-.1
-.6
9.0
17
5.3
10.5
-1.2
6.5
10.0
1.0
7.2
1.4
8.6
U
57
5.8
2.0
3.8
2.8
-1.6
2.0
0.5
-2.1
-.7
-1.4
-.6
-1.1
47
4.1
3.6
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
2.7
3.1
40
4.4
45
4.6
5.5
5.3
5.7
6.1
33
3.9
50
5.6
59
6.2
73
7.7
85
8.9
-.6
-.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.8
-2.5
-2.8
-2.8
86
14.1
19 3
23.5
23 6
19.0
16 6
22.3
294
27.1
9.8
15.4
20.5
24.5
24.0
19.3
19.6
25.9
33.4
31.1
10 0
17.9
217
25.3
24.2
19.8
24.8
31.8
35 6
29.2
2.8
7.6
11.4
14.1
12.9
10.7
9.1
11.3
12.4
10.2
7.2
10.3
10.3
11.2
11.3
9.1
15.7
20.5
23 2
19.0
4.0
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2
32
5.8
60
6.7
67
4.5
10 2
14.2
162
11.8
-.2
-2.5
-12
-.8
-12
-1.3
12
-1.0
- 3
-.2
-30
-3.6
40
-3.9
33
3.3
31
2.7
24
2.2
18
2.3
24
2.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959..
7.1
7.7
8.8
10.0
11.0
11.3
11.6
12.2
12.9
13.6
10.0
110
12.2
134
14.4
14 8
15.2
159
16.7
17.4
-2.9
-3 3
-3.4
-3 4
-3.3
-3 5
-3.6
-3.6
-3.8
-3.8
33.9
38 7
36.1
36 3
35.2
45 5
43.7
43 3
38.5
49.6
37.9
43.3
40.6
40.2
38.4
47.5
46.9
46.6
41.6
52.3
42.9
44 5
39.6
412
38.7
49.2
49.6
48.1
41.9
52.6
17.9
22.6
19.4
20.3
17.6
22.0
22.0
21.4
19.0
23.6
25.0
21.9
20.2
20 9
21.1
27.2
27.6
26.7
22.9
28.9
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.2
16.2
13.4
11.8
12.1
11.9
16.9
16.6
15.2
11.6
16.7
-5.0
-1.2
1.0
-1.0
40
-4 6
-4.5
-39
-3.2
-20
-3.2
-3.4
-3.2
-2.7
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.4
5.3
5.9
6.6
7.9
9.6
10.3
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967 *.'.'."
1968
1969
14.5
15.0
15.8
16.5
17.1
18.0
18.7
19.7
19 5
19.6
18.0
18.4
191
19.7
20.2
21.2
22.3
23.6
24 0
25.2
-3.5
-3.4
-3 4
-3.2
-3.2
-3.3
-3.6
-3.9
-4 5
-5.6
47.6
48 6
56 6
62.1
69.2
80.0
85.1
82.4
891
85.1
49.7
50.0
551
59.7
66.0
76.0
80.9
78.1
84 9
80.8
49.8
49.7
55 0
59.6
66.5
77.2
83.0
79.7
88 5
86.7
22.7
22.8
24 0
26.2
28.0
30.9
33.7
32.5
39.2
39.5
27.1
26.9
311
33.4
38.5
46.3
49.4
47.2
494
47.2
12.9
13.3
14.4
15.5
17.3
19.1
19.4
20.2
22.0
22.5
14.3
13.6
16 6
17.9
21.2
27.2
29.9
27.0
27.3
24.7
-.2
~\2
-2.1
-1.6
-3.7
-5.9
-2.0
-1.4
1.5
2.5
3.1
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
11.4
13.0
14.7
16.4
18.3
21.0
24.4
27.6
30.0
34.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974 ..v
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
19.7
20.2
210
22.6
23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
25.8
271
29 0
32.1
35.3
36 8
39.2
44.0
50.0
56 2
-6.1
-6.9
-8 0
-9.5
-11.8
-13 8
-15.6
-19.1
-23.4
-28 3
71.4
83 2
96 6
108.3
94.9
110 5
138.1
167.3
192.4
194 8
68.9
82.0
94 0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
75.4
86.6
100 6
125.6
136.7
1321
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
34.2
37.5
41.6
49.0
51.6
50.6
63.8
72.7
83.2
87.6
41.3
49.0
58 9
76.6
85.1
81.5
102.5
122.0
145.9
165.1
22.5
22.9
24.4
27.0
29.9
30.8
37.4
40.8
47.0
52.7
18.8
26.1
34.5
49.6
55.2
50.7
65.1
81.2
98.9
112.4
-6.6
-4.6
-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-147
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
2.5
1.3
2.7
2.7
-1.8
-10.1
-13.5
-11.3
-12.7
-14.8
41.4
46.5
51.2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
102.5
1217
153.8
1980
1981
1982"
32.9
33.9
34.1
65.3
69.4
70.8
-32.4
-35.5
-36.7
181.6
190.6
161.1
199.4
207.5
166.0
242.4
232.1
175.4
84.7
81.2
58.8
157.8
150.9
116.6
58.1
65.1
70.3
99.7
85.8
46.3
-43.0
-24.6
-9.4
-17.8
-16.8
-4.9
187.7
2357
265.3
30.8
32.7
33.8
34.2
61.8
64.8
66.9
67.5
-31.0
-32.1
-33.1
-33.3
195.3
172.2
177.8
181.2
211.0
189.4
197.0
200.4
268.2
217.6
238.1
245.9
95.3
73.3
82.2
87.8
172.9
144.3
155.9
158.1
567
57.8
58,7
59.6
116.7
86.4
97.3
98.5
-57.2
-28.2
-41.1
-45.5
-15.7
-17.2
-19.3
-19.2
175.7
181.6
190.4
203.0
II
Ill
(V
34 4
34.0
33.6
33.6
68 7
68.9
69.5
70 5
-34.3
-34.9
-35.9
-36.9
200 3
185.1
193.1
183.9
217.6
202.6
210.3
199.4
253.1
225.4
233.3
216.5
91.5
79.2
82.4
71.6
161.6
146.2
150.8
144.9
61.5
64.0
66.8
68.1
100.1
82.2
84.0
76.9
-35.5
-22.8
-23.0
-17.1
-17.3
-17.5
-17.1
-15.5
217.6
231.6
244.C
249.5
1982:
I
||
Ill
IV*
33.9
34.2
34.6
33.9
71.0
70.7
70.9
70.9
-37.1
-36.4
-36.3
-37.0
157.1
155.4
166.2
167.2
162.2
170.0
171.6
171.7
180.3
56.7
55.3
60.9
115.0
116.3
119.4
68.8
69.3
70.5
72.4
46.1
47.0
48.8
-4.4
-9.4
-10.3
-13.4
-10.1
-6.9
-3.8
1.2
2587
267.5
268.1
267.0
1980:
||
III
IV
1981:
3
With inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment.
Without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
4
187
-.6
-5.3
-5.9
-2.2
1.9
-17
-2.7
-1.5
-.3
.0
.1
TABLE B-22.~$ourees of personal income, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Wage and salary disbursements1
Personal
income
Year or quarter
Commodityproducing
industries
Total
Total
Manufacturing
Distributive
industries
Government
and
Service
indus- government
tries
enterprises
Other
labor
income1
Proprietors' income
with in
valuati sn and
cap tal
consurnption
adjust mpntc
Farm
Nonfarm
50.5
21.5
16.1
15.6
8.4
5.0
0.5
6.1
8.9
47.0
29.0
9.8
7.8
8.8
5.2
5.2
.4
2,'5
3.3
72.4
46.0
17.4
13.6
13.3
7.1
8.2
.6
4.4
7.4
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
77.9
95.4
122.6
150.8
164.5
170.0
177.6
190.1
209.0
206.4
49 9
62.1
821
105.6
116.9
117.5
112.0
123.1
135.5
134.8
19.7
27.5
39.1
49.0
50.4
45.9
46.0
54.2
61.1
57.8
15 6
21.7
30.9
40.9
42.9
38.2
36.5
42.5
47.1
44.6
14.2
16.3
18.0
20.1
22.7
24.8
31.0
35.2
37.5
37.7
7.5
8.1
9.0
9.9
10.9
11.9
14.3
16.1
17.9
18.5
85
10.2
16.0
26.6
33.0
34.9
20.7
17.5
19.0
20.8
.6
.9
1.1
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.7
2.9
4.4
6.4
10.1
12.0
12.0
12.4
14.9
15.1
17.6
12.8
8.6
11.1
14.1
17.1
18.4
19.4
21.8
20.8
23.3
23.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
227.2
254.9
271.8
287.7
289.6
310.3
332.6
351.0
361.1
384.4
147.0
1713
185.4
1986
196.8
2117
228.3
239 3
240.5
258.9
64.8
76.3
82.0
89.6
85.7
93.1
100.6
104.2
100.0
109.6
50.3
59 3
64.1
712
67.5
73 8
79.4
82 4
78.6
86.8
39.8
44.3
46.9
49.7
50.1
53.4
57.7
60.5
60.8
64.8
19.8
21.5
23.1
24.9
26.1
28.6
31.3.
33.6
35.6
38.5
22.6
29.2
33.3
34.4
34.9
36.6
38.8
41.0
44.1
46.0
3.7
4.6
5.2
5.9
6.1
7.0
8.0
9.0
9.4
10.6
13.7
16.1
15.1
13.1
12.5
11.5
11.2
11.1
13.2
10.9
25.0
27.2
28.2
28.6
28.7
31.4
32.7
34.2
34.5
36.7
402.3
417.8
443.6
466.2
499.2
540.7
588 2
630.0
690.6
754.7
2719
279.5
298 0
313 4
336.1
362 0
398 4
427.0
469 6
515.7
1131
113.7
121.8
126 9
135.4
146.0
1610
168.3
183.4
199.6
89 7
89.8
96 7
100 6
107.1
115 5
128 0
134.1
145 8
157.5
68.2
69.3
72.8
76 3
81.4
87.2
94 4
100.9
110.0
120.8
41.4
44.1
47.2
50.2
54.4
58.9
64.7
71.3
79.6
89.7
49.2
52.4
56.3
600
64.9
69.9
78 3
86.4
96.6
105.5
11.2
11.8
13.0
14.0
15.7
17.8
19.9
21.7
25.2
28.5
11.7
12.1
12.3
12.0
10.8
13.1
14.1
12.6
12.7
14.6
35.5
36.5
37.6
38.5
41.7
43.8
46.4
48.6
51.3
52.5
811.1
868.4
951.4
1,065.2
1168 6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732,7
1,951.2
548.7
580 9
635.2
702 7
765 7
806.4
8899
983.2
1,106 3
1,237.6
203.0
208.3
227.3
254.3
274 7
275.0
307.3
343.6
389.4
438.4
158.2
160 3
175.4
196 2
2114
211.0
237 4
266.0
299.2
333.9
130.3
139.4
152.1
168.3
184 6
195.6
216.6
239.5
270.7
303.4
98.3
106.7
118.2
131.3
145.6
159.7
177.4
197.7
226.6
259.7
117.1
126.5
137.5
148.7
160.9
176.1
188.7
202.4
219.5
236.2
32.5
36.7
43.0
48.8
55.8
64.5
75.9
89.4
102.5
114.9
14.3
15.0
18.7
32.8
26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
51.9
54.4
58.1
61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
1980
1981
1982"
2,160.4
2,415.8
2,569.7
1,356.1
1,493.9
1,560.1
468.0
510.8
509.9
354.4
386.4
382.6
330.5
361.4
375.7
297.4
338.6
372.3
260.2
283.1
302.3
127.2
140.4
153.8
19.4
24.0
18.6
96.9
100.7
101.4
1980:
I
II
H
I
IV
2 086 8
2]lO9.6
2,185.3
2,260.0
1319 7
1,332.1
1,360.5
1,412.2
462 7
458.6
465.6
485.1
350 3
347.0
352.8
367.7
323 2
324.9
331.9
341.9
2834
292.0
301.4
313.1
250 4
256.6
261.6
272.2
123 2
125.9
128.4
131.5
22.1
15.9
20.3
19.2
100.5
93.0
95.1
98.8
1981:
1
||
III
IV
2,330.0
2,380.6
2,458.2
2,494.6
1452 8
1479 4
1,512.3
1,531.2
499.2
507 2
519.3
517.7
377 0
386 9
392.9
388.7
352.1
358 7
366.5
368.3
325.2
333.7
342.8
352.8
276 2
279 8
283.8
292.4
135.3
138.4
142.2
145.8
21.6
22.5
27.1
24.6
101.8
101.2
100.4
99.5
1982:
1
||
III
IV P
2 510.5
2*552 7
2^592.5
2,623.2
15416
1556 6
1,570.0
1,572.3
514.3
513 6
510.2
501.4
3851
385 6
383.8
375.8
371.4
375 4
378.4
377.4
359.5
367.6
377.8
384.3
296.5
300 0
303.5
309.1
149.1
152 5
155.5
157.9
17.8
17.4
16.6
22.6
98.6
99.9
101J
105.5
1929
85.0
1933
1939
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
. .. .
.. .
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees in Tabfe 8 - 2 1 in that it
excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
See next page for continuation of table.
188
TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal income, 1929-82—Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Rental
Transfer payments
of
persons Personal Personal
with
Year or quarter
capital dividend interest
income income
consumption
adjustment
Total
Old-age,
Governsurvivors, Government
ment
disability, unememployVeterans
and
ployment
ee
health
insur- benefits retireinsurance
ment
ance
benefits
benefits
benefits
Aid to
families
with
dependent
children
(AFDC)
Other
Less:
Personal
contribu- Nonfarm
tions for personal
income2
social
insurance
1929
4.9
5.8
6.9
1.5
0.6
0.1
0.8
0.1
1933
2.2
2.0
5.5
2.1
.6
.2
1.4
.2
1939
2.6
3.8
5.4
3.0
0.0
0.4
.5
.3
1.7
.6
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946 ..
1947
1948
1949
27
3.1
4.0
44
4.5
4.6
55
5.3
57
6.1
40
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2
53
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.9
6.6
7.6
8.1
8.7
31
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.6
6.2
113
11.7
113
12.5
0
.1
5
.4
.4
.1
.1
.4
1.1
.8
.9
1.9
5
3
.3
1.0
3.0
70
7.0
59
5.3
17
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.0
21
.3
4
.5
2.5
2.9
3.3
7
.8
1.2
1.8
2.2
2.3
20
2.1
2.2
2.2
1599
1719
188 2
190.4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
7.1
77
8.8
10.0
11.0
113
116
12.2
12 9
13.6
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
10.3
111
11.5
11.3
12.2
9.7
10.5
11.2
12.5
13.7
14.9
16 7
18.8
20 3
22.5
15.2
12.6
13.1
14.1
16.2
17.5
18 7
21.6
25 9
27.0
1.0
1.9
2.2
3.0
3.6
4.9
57
7.3
85
10.2
1.5
.9
1.1
1.0
2.2
1.5
15
1.9
41
2.8
7.7
4.6
4.3
4.1
4.2
4.4
44
4.5
47
4.6
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
19
2.2
2.5
2.8
.6
.6
.5
.5
.6
.6
6
.7
8
.9
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.8
2.9
3.4
3.8
4.0
4.6
5.2
58
6.7
6.9
7.9
210.2
235 4
253.1
2713
273.9
295 5
318 0
336.6
344 4
369.8
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 '
14.5
150
15.8
16.5
17.1
18.0
18 7
19.7
19 5
19.6
19 7
20 2
21.0
22 6
23 5
23.0
23.5
24 8
26 6
27.9
32.9
33.9
341
12.9
13.3
14.4
15.5
17.3
19.1
19.4
20.2
21.9
22.4
22.2
22 6
24.1
26.5
29.1
29.9
36.5
39.6
45.3
50.8
55.9
62.5
67.0
25.0
264
29.0
32.2
35.6
39.7
44 4
48.3
53.4
61.1
69 4
74 8
80.9
93 9
112.4
123.2
132.5
152.8
1794
218.7
263.4
329.0
371.8
28.9
32 8
33.8
35.8
37.4
40.4
44 7
52.6
59 8
66.7
801
94 4
104.7
119 5
141.2
178.3
194.3
207.9
223 8
250.3
297.2
336.3
374.5
11.1
12.6
14.3
15.2
16.0
18.1
20 8
25.5
30.2
32.9
38.5
44.5
49.6
60.4
70.1
81.4
92.9
104.9
116.2
131.8
154.2
182.0
204.5
3.0
4.3
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.3
19
2.2
2.1
2.2
4.0
58
5.7
4.4
6.8
17.6
15.8
12.7
9.7
9.8
16.1
15.4
24.9
4.6
50
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
49
5.6
59
6.7
7.7
88
9.7
10.4
11.8
14.5
14.4
13.8
13.9
14.4
15.0
16.1
16.3
3.1
3.4
3.7
4.2
4.7
5.2
6.1
6.9
7.6
8.7
10.2
11.8
13.8
16.0
19.0
111
26.1
29.0
32.7
36.9
43.0
49.2
54.0
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7
19
2.3
2.8
3.5
4.8
6.2
6.9
7.2
7.9
9.2
10.1
10.6
10.7
11.0
12.4
13.4
13.1
6.2
6.4
6.7
7.3
7.8
8.3
9.2
10.2
11.1
12.5
15.0
17.4
19.0
21.1
25.6
32.8
35.1
36.9
40.7
46.3
56.6
60.3
61.6
9.3
9.7
10.3
11.8
12.6
13.3
17.8
20.6
22.9
26.2
27.9
30.7
34.5
42.6
47.9
50.4
55.5
61.1
69.8
81.1
88.7
104.9
111.7
386.7
401.6
427.1
449.7
483.7
522.6
568.9
611.9
672.1
733.9
790.0
846.5
925.3
1,023.7
1,131.8
1,229.1
1,359.3
1,506.5
1,689.7
1,899.3
2,117.3
2,364.1
2,518.9
1980:
I
||
HI
IV
30.8
32.7
33 8
34 2
54.1
55.7
56.5
57.4
249.1
258.0
266.4
280.2
274.2
283.2
313.4
318.2
142.1
144.7
163.4
166.4
11.8
15.9
18.7
18.0
14.8
14.6
14.9
15.7
40.1
42.3
43.4
46.0
11.7
12.1
12.8
13.0
53.6
53.5
60.2
59.1
86.9
86.9
89.1.
91.8
2,042.2
2,070.3
2,140.9
2.216.C
34.4
34.0
33.6
33.6
59.2
61.5
64.1
65.2
304.7
320.6
339.6
351.0
322.8
327.0
344.8
350.7
171.0
173.7
190.6
192.8
15.7
15.1
14.1
16.7
16.0
15.9
16.0
16.4
47.2
49.1
49.6
50.8
13.1
13.4
13.5
13.4
59.8
59.8
61.0
60.6
102.5
104.1
106.1
107.0
2,282.5
2,330.9
2,402.6
2,440.3
33 9
34.2
34.6
33.9
65.8
66.1
67.2
68.8
359 7
372.0
378.2
377.2
354.6
365.2
381.0
397.2
194.7
197.5
209.2
216.6
18.7
23.5
25.5
31.8
16.3
16.1
16.3
16.6
51.5
54.4
54.9
55.3
13.2
13.2
13.0
13.1
60.1
60.6
62.1
63.8
110.6
111.4
112.4
112.4
2,461.6
2,503.2
2,543.3
2,567.6
1981:
II
Ill
IV
1982:
|
||
Ill
IV P
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.5
'A
A
.5
.7
.7
.9
2
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and farm net interest
Note.—The industry classification of wage and salary disbursements and proprietors' income is on an establishment basis and is
based on the 1972 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) beginning 1948 and on the 1942 SIC prior to 1948.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
189
TABLE B-23.—Disposition ofpersonal income, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Percent of disposable
personal incor
Less: Personal outlays
Year or quarter
Personal
income
Equals:
Less:
Personal Dispostax and
able
nontax personal
payments income
Total
Personal
Personal Interest transfer Equals:
paid by
Personal
conpaysaving
sumption consum- ments
expendi- ers to
to
busitures
forness
eigners
(net)
Personal outlays
Total
Personal
Consump- Personal
saving
tion
expenditures
1929
85.0
26
82.4
79.1
77.3
1.5
0.3
3.3
96.0
93.8
4.0
1933
47.0
14
45.6
46.5
45.8
.5
.2
-0.9
102.0
100.5
=2.0
1939
72.4
24
70.0
67.8
67.0
.7
.2
2.2
96.9
95.6
3.1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
2.6
33
5.9
17 8
18.9
20 8
18 7
214
210
18.5
75.3
92 2
116.6
133 0
145.6
1491
158 9
168.7
188 0
187.9
72.0
81.8
89.4
100.1
109.0
120.4
145 2
163.5
1769
180.4
71.0
80.8
88.6
99.4
108.2
119.5
143.8
161.7
174.7
178.1
.8
.9
.2
,.,
77.9
954
122.6
150 8
164.5
170.0
177 6
190.1
209 0
206.4
.7
1.0
1.4
1.7
.1
.2
.4
.5
.7
J
,7
.5
3.4
10.3
27.2
32.9
36.6
28.7
13 7
5.2
11.1
7.5
95.5
88.8
76.7
75.3
74.8
80.8
91.4
96.9
94.1
96.0
94.2
87.6
76.0
74.7
74.3
80.1
90.5
95.9
93.0
94.8
4.5
11.2
23.3
24.7
25.2
19.2
8.6
3.1
5.9
4.0
1950
1951
1952 ....'.'.....'.*
*
.
1953
. ..
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
227.2
254.9
271.8
287 7
289.6
310 3
332.6
351.0
361.1
384.4
20.6
28.9
34.0
35 5
32.5
354
39.7
42 4
42.1
46.0
206.6
226.0
237.7
252 2
257.1
275 0
292.9
308 6
319.0
338.4
194.7
210.0
220.4
233 7
240.1
258 5
271.6
286 4
295.4
317.3
192.0
207.1
217.1
229.7
235.8
253.7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.6
3.8
4.4
5.1
5.5
5.6
6.1
.4
.4
.4
.5
.5
,4
.5
.5
.4
.4
11.9
16.1
17.4
18.5
17.0
16.4
21.3
22.3
23.6
21.1
94.2
92.9
92.7
92.7
93.4
94.0
92.7
92.8
92.6
93.8
92.9
91.6
91.3
91.1
91.7
92.3
90.8
90.9
90.7
91.8
5.8
7.1
7.3
7.3
6.6
6.0
7.3
7.2
7.4
6.2
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
402.3
417 8
443.6
466 2
499.2
540.7
588.2
630.0
690.6
754.7
352 0
3658
3868
4059
440.6
475.8
513.7
547 9
593.4
638.9
332.3
342 7
363.5
384 0
411.0
442.1
477.7
503 6
551.5
598.3
324.9
3350
355.2
374 6
400.5
430.4
465.1
490.3
536.9
581.8
7.0
73
7.8
88
9.9
U.I
12.0
12.5
13.8
15.6
.4
.4
.5
.6
.6
.7
.7
.9
.8
.9
19.7
23 0
23.3
219
29.6
33.7
36.0
44.3
41.9
40.6
5.6
6.3
6.0
5.4
6.7
7.1
7.0
8.1
7.1
6.4
695.3
7518
810.3
914.5
998.3
1,096.1
1,194.4
1,314 0
1,474.0
1,650.2
16.7
17.7
19.5
22.3
24.1
24.4
26.7
30.7
37.4
45.5
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.0
.9
.9
.9
.8
.8
55.8
60.7
52.6
79.0
85.1
94.3
82.5
78 0
89.4
96.7
89.4
89.4
91.0
88.8
89.0
89.1
90.8
91.7
91.3
91.3
8.0
8.1
6.5
8.6
8.5
8.6
6.9
5.9
6.1
5.9
1,824.1
2,029.1
2,172.5
639.5
6911
757.7
835.5
913.2
1,001.8
1,111.9
1,236 0
1,384.6
1,553.5
1,717.9
1,898.9
2,031.4
621.7
672 2
737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1 204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1980
1981
1982 p
811.1
868.4
951.4
1,065.2
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,160.4
2,415.8
2,569.7
1,667.2
1,843.2
1,972.0
49.9
55.1
58.6
.8
.6
.9
106.2
130.2
141.1
94.4
93.7
94.0
94.6
93.3
92.9
93.0
91.9
92.9
93.6
92.0
91.9
93.5
91.4
91.5
91.4
93.1
94.1
93.9
941
94.2
93.6
93.5
92.3
91.6
91.8
92.3
90.9
90.5
90.5
89.5
90.5
91.1
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
50 4
521
568
60 3
58.6
64.9
74.5
821
97.2
115.7
115.8
116 7
141.0
150.7
170.2
168.9
196.8
2264
258.7
301.0
336.3
386.7
397.2
91.4
90.8
90.8
5.8
6.4
6.5
1980:
I
It
HI
IV
2,086.8
2,109.6
2,185.3
2,260.0
319.9
328 6
339.7
357.1
1,766.9
1,7810
1,845.5
1,902.9
1,669.1
1,672 4
1,732.5
1,797.6
1,618.7
1622 2
1,682.2
1,745.8
49.6
49.4
49.7
50.8
.7
.7
.8
.9
97 9
108 6
113.1
105.3
94 5
939
93.9
94.5
916
911
91.1
91.7
5.5
61
6.1
5.5
1981:
|
||
HI
IV
2,330.0
2,380.6
2,458.2
2,494.6
371.2
384.2
3981
393.2
1,958.7
1,996.5
2,060 0
2,101.4
1,852.8
1,874.5
1,925.7
1,942.7
1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5
52.4
54.4
56.2
57.5
,5
.8
.7
105 9
122.0
134 4
158.6
94.6
93.9
93 5
92.5
919
91.1
90 7
89.7
54
6.1
65
7.5
1982:
1
||
III
\M P
2,510.5
2,552.7
2,592.5
2,623.2
393.4
401.2
394.4
399.7
2,117.1
2,151.5
2,198.1
2,223.5
1,977.9
2,007.2
2,046.1
2,094.6
1,919.4
1,947.8
1,986.3
2,034.6
57.8
58.4
59.0
59.1
.8
.9
.8
.9
139.1
144.3
152.0
128.9
93.4
93.3
93.1
94.2
90.7
90.5
90.4
91.5
6.6
6.7
6.9
5.8
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
190
ij
TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures in
current and 1972 dollars, 1929-82
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates, except as noted]
Disposable personal income
Year or quarter
Total (billions of
dollars)
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Personal consumption expenditures
Per capita
(dollars)
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Total (billions of
dollars)
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Per capita
(dollars)
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Population
(thousands) l
1929...,
82.4
229.5
676
1,883
77.3
215.1
634
1,765
1933...,
45.6
169.6
363
1,349
45.8
170.5
364
1,356
125,690
1939....
70.0
229.8
534
1,754
67.0
219.8
511
1,678
131,028
1940....
1941...,
1942....
1943...
1944....
1945....
1946....
1947....
1948....
1949...,
75.3
92.2
116.6
133.0
145.6
149.1
158.9
168.7
188.0
187.9
244.0
277.9
317.5
332.1
343.6
338.1
332.7
318.8
335.8
336.8
570
691
865
973
1,052
1,066
71.0
80.8
88.6
99.4
108.2
119.5
143.8
161.7
174.7
178.1
229.9
243.6
241.1
248.2
255.2
270.9
301.0
305.8
312.2
319.3
537
605
657
727
781
854
1,017
1,122
1,192
1,194
1,740
1,826
1,788
1,815
1,844
1,936
2,129
2,122
2,129
2,140
132,122
133,402
134,860
136,739
138,397
139,928
141,389
144,126
146,631
149,188
1950...,
1951...,
1952...,
1953....
1954...,
1955...,
1956...,
1957...,
1958....
1959...,
206.6
226.0
237.7
252.2
257.1
275.0
292.9
308.6
319.0
338.4
362.8
372.6
383.2
399.1
403.2
426.8
446.2
455.5
460.7
479.7
1,170
1,282
1,259
1,362
1,465
1,515
1,581
1,583
1,664
1,741
1,802
1,832
1,911
1,847
2,083
2,354
2,429
2,483
2,416
2,353
2,212
2,290
2,257
2,392
2,415
2,441
2,501
2,483
2,582
2,653
2,660
2,645
2,709
192.0
207.1
217.1
229.7
235.8
253.7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
337.3
341.6
350.1
363.4
370.0
394.1
405.4
413.8
418.0
440.4
2,224
2,214
2,230
2,277
2,278
2,384
2,410
2,416
2,400
2,487
151,684
154,287
156,954
159,565
162,391
165,275
168,221
171,274
174,141
177,073
I960...,
1961...,
1962...,
1963....
1964....
1965...,
1966....
1967...,
1968...
1969....
352.0
365.8
386.8
405.9
440.6
475.8
513.7
547.9
593.4
638.9
489.7
503.8
524.9
542.3
580.8
616.3
646.8
673.5
701.3
722.5
1,947
1,991
2,073
2,144
2,296
2,448
2,613
2,757
2,956
3,152
2,709
2,742
2,813
2,865
3,026
3,171
3,290
3,389
3,493
3,564
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.5
430.4
465.1
490.3
536.9
581.8
452.0
461.4
482.0
500.5
528.0
557.5
585.7
602.7
634.4
657.9
1,266
1,342
1,383
1,439
1,452
1,535
1,581
1,637
1,662
1,755
1,797
1,823
1,904
1,979
2,087
2,214
2,366
2,467
2,674
2,870
2,501
2,511
2,583
2,644
2,751
2,868
2,979
3,032
3,160
3,245
180,760
183,742
186,590
189,300
191,927
194,347
196,599
198,752
200,745
202,736
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...,
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
695.3
751.8
3,390
3,620
3,860
4,315
4,667
5,075
5,477
5,965
6,621
7,331
3,665
3,752
3,860
4,080
4,009
4,051
4,158
4,280
4,441
4,512
621.7
672.2
737.1
812.0
888.1
1,096.1
1,194.4
1,314.0
1,474.0
1,650.2
751.6
779.2
810.3
864.7
857.5
874.9
906.8
942.9
988.8
1,015.7
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
672.1
696.8
737.1
767.9
762.8
779.4
823.1
864.3
903.2
927.6
3,031
3,237
3,511
3,831
4,152
4,521
4,972
5,468
6,048
6,695
3,277
3,355
3,511
3,623
3,566
3,609
3,774
3,924
4,057
4,121
205,089
207,692
209,924
211,939
213,898
215,981
218,086
220,289
222,629
225,106
1980...,
1981...,
1982 ",
1,824.1
2,029.1
2,172.5
1,018.0
1,043.1
1,054.5
8,012
8,827
9,362
4,472
4,538
4,544
1,667.2
1,843.2
1,972.0
930.5
947.6
957.1
7,323
8,018
8,498
4,087
4,123
4,125
227,654
229,872
232,050
1,766.9
1,781.0
1,845.5
1,902.9
1,022.8
1,005.5
1,018.2
1,025.7
7,793
7,834
8,095
8,325
4,511
4,423
4,466
4,487
1,618.7
1,622.2
1,682.0
1,745.8
937.0
915.8
928.0
941.0
7,140
7,136
7,378
7,638
4,133
4,029
4,071
4,117
226,727
227,332
227,978
228,579
1,958.7
1,996.5
2,060.0
2,101.4
1,035.0
1,036.6
1,048.8
1,051.9
8,551
8,698
8,951
9,107
4,519
4,516
4,557
4,559
1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5
951.1
944.6
951.4
943.4
7,858
7,926
8,120
8,167
4,152
4,115
4,134
4,088
229,053
229,539
230,145
230,751
2,117.1
2,151.5
2,198.1
2,223.5
1,046.9
1,054.8
1,058.3
1,057.9
9,155
9,285
9,461
9,546
4,527
4,552
4,555
4,542
1,919.4
1,947.8
1,986.3
2,034.6
949.1
955.0
956.3
968.0
8,300
8,406
8,550
8,735
4,104
4,121
4,116
4,156
231,246
231,724
232,320
232,910
1980:
I
II
III ....
IV
1981:
I
II
Ill...,
IV
1982:
I
i!Z
810.3
914.5
998.3
1,124
976.4
121,878
1
Population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas; includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1960. Annual data are for
July 1 through 1958 and are averages of quarterly data beginning 1960. Quarterly data are average for the period. Data beginning 1970
reflect results of the 1980 census of population.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
191
TABLE B-25.—Gross saving and investment, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross investment
Gross saving
Gross private saving
Year or
quarter
1929
1933
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953...
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981...
1982 p,
1980:
|
||
III
IV
1981:
(I
Ill
IV
1982:
I
||
Ill
IV P
Total
Total
Gross
Personal business
saving saving'
15.9
.9
8.8
13.5
18.6
10 7
54
2.4
5.2
35.1
41.7
49.8
35.6
50 7
56.9
51.0
49.8
50.9
67.5
75.9
75.2
62.6
78.3
81.1
78.7
86.7
93.6
104.0
120.2
127.3
125 7
136.0
153.6
148.9
161.6
186.6
235.5
227 8
218.9
257.9
309.1
374.8
422.7
406.2
477.5
413.9
14.9
2.2
11.0
14.2
22.4
42.0
49 6
54.3
44.7
29.6
27.3
41.4
39.0
42 7
50.8
54.8
56.7
58.1
64.4
70.7
74.3
75.3
79.9
78.0
83.0
90.5
92.9
106.3
119.7
128.6
139 9
142.0
143.6
158.6
180.3
189.2
227.7
234 5
282.7
294 4
326.9
374.0
407.3
438.3
504.7
529.9
33
-.9
2.2
3.4
10.3
27 2
329
36.6
28.7
13.7
5.2
11.1
7.5
119
16.1
17 4
18.5
17.0
16.4
21.3
22.3
23.6
21.1
19.7
23.0
23.3
21.9
29 6
33.7
36.0
44 3
41.9
40.6
55.8
60 7
52,6
79.0
851
94.3
82 5
78.0
89 4
96.7
106 2
130.2
141.1
116
3.1
8.8
10.8
12.1
14 8
16 7
17.6
16.0
15.9
22.1
30 2
31.5
30 7
34.8
37.4
38.2
411
47.9
49.4
52.0
517
58.7
58.3
60.0
67.2
71.0
76 7
86.0
92.7
95 6
100.0
103.0
102.8
119 7
136.6
148.7
1494
188.4
2119
248.9
284 6
310.6
3321
374.5
388.8
410.8
395.8
404.4
414.0
420.2
438.8
449.2
445.1
97.9
108.6
113.1
105.3
461.4
482.4
490.0
476.3
468.7
488.9
513.4
547.7
428.8
441.5
422.4
519.4
529.0
546.1
Governrnent surplus or
and
Total
Capita)
), national income grants
received
pr 3duct accounts
by the
united
State
States
and
Federal
(net) 2
tocal
10
-1.4
=2.2
7
=3.8
=314
—44 1
-51.8
-39.5
1.2
-1.3
-2.2
-1.3
=5.1
=33.1
=46.6
-54.5
=42.1
3.5
13.4
8.3
-2.6
54
14.4
84
-3.4
80
6.1
-38
-6.9
Total
17 0
1.6
10.3
14.7
19.2
—2
= .1
.0
.6
1.3
StatisGross
Net
tical
private
foreign discrepdomestic
investancy
investment *
ment
16.2
1.4
9.3
0.8
13.1
17.9
1.5
1.3
.2
1.0
9.9
58
=.1
21
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.0
,1
5.2
9.3
35.6
43.2
48.3
36.2
7.2
10.6
30.7
34.0
45.9
35.3
-2.0
-1.3
4.9
9.3
2.4
.9
-1.2
= .4
-.0
52.0
60.1
52.7
52.1
52.9
68.8
73.8
74.0
62.8
77.0
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52.7
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
78.1
-1.8
.9
.6
=1.3
78.7
78.6
88.8
95.3
104 2
119.0
128.7
125 4
133.9
149.7
147.4
165 7
189.9
236.3
2315
224.4
263 0
310.4
372 3
421.2
75.9
74.8
85.4
90.9
97.4
113.5
125.7
122.8
133.3
149.3
2.8
3.8
3.4
4.4
6.8
5.4
3.0
2.6
.6
.4
144.2
166.4
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
3.2
= 7
6.5
2.9
18.3
5.1
= 13.6
= 14.3
-1.8
410 2
475.6
414.0
402.3
471.5
421.9
7.8
4.1
=7.9
1.8
25
98
37
1.1
\A
1.1
.6
=.8
18
2,7
4.1
.5
1.5
-1.6
.6
1.3
3.2
1.7
2.3
2.0
1.3
-2.1
-1.2
.2
-1.3
=2.4
3.1
52
.9
= 12 6
-1.6
9.2
6.5
-3.7
-7.1
-6.0
4.4
6.1
2.3
= 10.3
-1.1
-1.4
-2.4
-.4
3.1
-4.3
-3.8
3.0
= 3.9
=4.2
.1
= .4
.5
-2 3
.5
-1.3
— 142
-6.0
9.9
-13
10
= .0
-l!8
= 132
-6.0
8.4
11
.1
1.5
= 10.6
= 19 4
-3.3
7.8
-4 7
-63.8
-36 5
-17.8
8
14.3
"12.4
-?2.0
= 16.8
= 5.6
115
-69.3
-531
-45.9
-29.5
-16.1
1.9
26
13.5
13.4
68
5.5
16 6
28.0
30 3
30.4
-33 2
=28.2
= 116.1
-614
=60.0
= 147.9
282
31.7
31.9
0.9
.7
.7
.0
20
.0
0
.0
0
1.1
12
1.1
.0
322.3
330.2
336.1
339.8
-10.6
-44.2
-45.9
= 32.2
-39.7
=67.5
-73.1
-65.2
29.1
23.3
27.1
33.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
421.3
399.6
406.6
413.0
424.0
391.0
384.1
410.3
=2.6
8.6
22.5
2.8
10.5
3.8
2.2
-1.0
105.9
122.0
134.4
158.6
362.8
367.0
379.0
389.1
-8.3
-7.6
-24.5
-72.5
-39.7
-40.5
= 58.0
= 101.7
31.3
32.9
33.5
29.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
466.5
477.8
489.1
469.0
455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9
10.8
2.3
3.1
5.1
=4.6
g
72
1391
144 3
152.0
128.9
380 3
384 7
394.1
= 9 0 7 — 1184
—87 5 = 1196
= 123.7 -156.0
211
0
0
.0
.0
4213
442 3
426.0
366.3
414 8
4315
443.3
397.9
65
10 8
= 17.3
=31.7
75
8
3.6
-71
-1.1
13
-.9
321
32.3
ZZZ
4
.4
2.8
4.8
.9
-1.2
51
l.'l
1.7
12
1.4
=2.1
= 3.9
-1.5
4.1
3.3
.8
37
5.5
5.1
1.4
=2.6
= 1.5
3.9
-1.9
1
Undistributed corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, corporate and noncorporate capital
consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment, and private wage accruals less disbursements.
2
Allocations of special drawing rights (SDRs), except as noted in footnote 4.
3
Net exports of goods and services less net transfers to foreigners and interest paid by government to foreigners plus capital grants
received by the United States, net.
4
In February 1974, the U.S. Government paid to India $2,010 million in rupees under provisions of the Agricultural Trade
Development and Assistance Act. This transaction is being treated as capital grants paid to foreigners, i.e., a $2.0 billion entry in
capital grants received by the United States, net.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
192
TABLE B-26.—Saving by individuals, 1946-821
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Net investment7
Increase in financial assets
Year or quarter
Total
Checkable
deposTotal its
and
currency
Time
and
savings
deposits
Securities
Money
market
fund
shares
Government
securities 2
2.8
2.4
2.2
1.6
3.6
6.7
9.1
8.4
6.1
9.0
9.8
10.6
2.3
1.8
6.9
1.8
3.6
4.7
4.6
4.4
3.1
3.7
3.2
3.2
-0.4
2.2
2.8
2.2
_ 1
-.6
2.5
2.5
1.0
.7
1.8
1.6
1.0
.8
-.7
.3
.0
.3
—9
6.9
6.3
7.7
7.9
7.8
19
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
11.8
11.7
11.3
12.3
12.7
14 8
11.3
8.6
10.1
7.1
68
4.5
2.3
1.0
1.9
67
6.6
6.2
7.6
8.7
48
1.6
5.3
4.2
1.5
50
3.7
2.7
1.9
5.5
5.8
3.9
2.3
-2.5
10.1
1.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
.8
1.2
1.0
1.1
—3
8.5
9.5
9.5
10.4
11.9
21
2.5
2.8
3.5
3.3
16.7
15.6
13.2
12.3
16.3
12 2
8.5
7.7
3.6
7.3
29
1.2
2.7
2.6
5.0
12 2
11.2
8.9
9.5
12.8
72
3.9
2.9
.5
8.0
64
3.2
3.8
6.0
7.2
32 1 10 12 0
35 4 _ 9 18 3
40.1 - 1 . 2 26.1
46.6 4.2 26.2
55.7
5.3 26.1
2.2 - . 6
1.4
.3
1.3 - 2 . 1
.6 -2.6
4.8 —2
2.4
,1
.1
1.4
.4
11.5
12.1
12.7
13.9
16.1
3.6
43
3.2
2.9
3.2
14.8
12.7
13.5
14.3
15.0
7.0
43
8.5
11.8
15.0
3.6
4.7
7.5
9.8
9.2
11.7
12 2
14.1
16.2
17.5
4.4
2.5
6.3
8.9
9.8
4.9
65
7.2
10.7
10.8
58 8 76 27 8
57.9 2.4 19.0
9.9 35.3
69.8
75.6 11.1 31.1
9.1
65.2 - 2 . 5
3.7 -2.1
7
11.3
-1.2 -4.7
5.2 75
25.9 - 2 . 8
1.3
2.4
5.2
7.9
10.0
16.9
19.2
18.6
19.8
21.5
3.7
4.4
6.7
8.1
4.0
14.5
13.5
11.7
15.7
16.3
20 2
23.1
21.1
27.0
26.3
13.3
10.8
10.2
10.0
12.7
17 0 10 6
13.8 6.5
12.5 5.7
16.9 11.5
18.6 10.8
14 3
12.2
17.6
19.2
19.4
43.6
67 7
74.4
63 6
55.7
-5.4 - 1 . 7
= 12 2 - 5 . 5
2.7 - 5 . 1
24.2
2.4
28.3 - . 6
6.9
65
4.9
11.1
6.8
23.9 5.4
27.4 58
29.4 11.4
33.0 83
36.2 11.1
13.6
20.7
28.0
31.0
25.2
20.0
26 6
34.6
40.4
28.4
11.5
17.5
20.6
26.6
10.6
14.1 5.4
26 2 14.7
41.4 19.8
46.5
38.0 9.9
20.7
30 3
44.2
43 8
35.4
44
8.6
47
12.5
18.4
43 5
52.4
67.4
73.8
68.2
13 6
19.2
192
29.8
34.6
23 5
36.1
52.3
63.9
67.9
26 5 5.8 406
40.0 3.3 61.4
49 6 15.2 911
111 ^
52.5 26.3 121.3
9.6
25.4
40.2
48 8
45.4
26 9
37.9
52 4
59.3
68.0
2.1
7.0
40.5
57.3 -31.6 - 6 . 4
89.6 36.9
98.7 38.3
48.7
43.8
32.4 8.7
38.2 27.9
98.3 4.9
81.4 25.3
73.7
75.2
.4
2.4
13.3
12.1
80.7 34.3
95.8
100.1 42.2
81.9 V\
59.8
49.3
40.8
45.6
46.4
185
14.7 123.7 21.8
83 7
60 94 4 141
139 914
80.4
45.7
63.9
104.7
18.8 5.6
13.2
9.1 - 2 . 9
9.9 - 2 . 0
6.3
3.4
2.2
2.6
-1.5
1.6
1.3
1.8
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
30 6
34.7
31.3
32.5
28.2
13 7
19.1
23.2
22.8
22.2
24
4.7
7.8
8.1
9.1
1955 .
1956
1957
1958
1959
34.1
37.2
36.5
34.1
38.0
28 0
30.2
28,6
31.6
37.4
1.2 86
1.8 9.4
- . 4 11.9
3.8 13.9
1.0 11.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
36 7
35 9
42.0
46.7
56.8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
65 0
72.8
77.0
80.5
71.5
1970
1971
1972
1973.
1974
86.4
95 6
109.3
132 0
128.3
81.5
1021
131.5
148 5
147.3
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
153 0
165.1
167 2
200.6
208.1
174 3 69 83 4 13
210.5 15.7 107.5 - . 0
2
233 8 201 107 5
274 4 22.6 100 3 69
296.1 22,4 78.5 34.4
1980
1981
250.5 337.5
283.1 355.2
26
4.6
1.6
1.0
2.2
8.9
12 2
13.9
14.1
7.4
6.5 125.6 29.2
25.8 65.6 107.5
Ill
I
V
242.9
237.0
263 6
2584
347.9 8.1
270 5 -11.1
3614 41 1
3701 - 1 1 9
1981:
1
II..
Ill
I
V
256 0
257.0
320 4
299.1
328 7 55 0
365 4
387 6 59
339.0 42.7
II..
Ill
Consumer
durables
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.6
24.6
20.1
24.3
20.9
1982:
Owneroccupied
homes
1.1 - 0 . 9
1.1 - . 8
1.0
.0
.7 - . 4
1946
1947
1948
1949
1980:
I
Insur- Other
ance
Cor- Other and finanporate securi- pension cial
as- 6
equireties 3 ties* serves5 sets
Less: tJet increase in
debt
Non- Mortcor- gage
porate debt Conbusi- on sumer Other8
ness non- credit debt8
as- farm
sets 8 homes
96.8 61.3
81.8
120 0 5.1
203 7 -11.9
25 0 - 3 . 8
11.7 - 4 . 6
18 2 3.5
33.6
55.5 -15.9
65.7
-6.6
40.1
62.7
.6
R9
1.5
VO
148 4
59.9
137.3
84.3
51 15 5 - 1 1 3
103.2 29.0 - 7 . 4
83.7 -55.0 -21.9
37.0 -26.8 14.9
84.6
103.5
113.3
93.6
37 2
4?fi
401
33.2
49.0
48.4
42.4
35.7
45 7 25.3 91.6 26.5
3? 9 99 5 3??
4? 8 ?9fi 77 8 34?
8.3
29.0
74.7
93.2
70.1
62.8
300.5 333 7 32.8 131.4
290.2 357 7 - 3 . 9 102 4 41?
1.7 94.7 86.5
335.9 393.3
42.6 n n -19.9
44 -30.7
105.2
3.0
68.9 -12.5
90.6 ?9fi
112.0
104.4 46.6
27.1
29.6
29.5
35 7
37 7
35.2
fi.6
28.5
65.4
62.8
25 2
92 8
84 3
60.1
1
2
5,9 66 8
78 SIR
51.1
8.2
Saving by households, personal trust funds, nonprofit institutions, farms, and other noncorporate business.
Consists of U.S. savings bonds, other U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. Government agency securities and sponsored agency securities,
mortgage pool securities, and State and local obligations.
3
Includes mutual fund shares.
4
Corporate and foreign bonds and open market paper.
s
Private life insurance reserves, private insured and noninsured pension reserves, and government insurance and pension reserves.
6
Consists of security credit, mortgages, accident and health insurance reserves, and nonlife insurance claims for households and of
consumer credit, equity in sponsored agencies, and nonlife insurance claims for noncorporate business.
7
Purchases of physical assets less depreciation.
8
Includes data for corporate farms.
9
Other debt consists of security credit, policy loans, and noncorporate business debt.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
193
TABLE B-27.—Number and median income (in 1981 dollars) of families and persons, and poverty status,
by race, selected years, 1947-81
Persons
below
poverty level
Families >
Below poverty level
Year
Number
(millions)
Total
Median
income
hpr
Del
ALL RACES
1947
1950
1955
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965 3
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974 »
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979*
1980
1981
WHITE
1970
1971
1972
1973 3
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979*
1980
1981
BLACK
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974 •
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979*
1980
1981
M
ales
Ferr ales
Female householder
Num(millions)
Median income of persons 14 years
old and over with income *
Rate
Number
(millions)
Number
Rate
/mil
Rate
lions)
All
persons
Yearround
full-time
workers
YearAll round
fullper- time
sons workers
37 2
39.9
42 9
$12,341
12,539
15,006
45.5
46 4
471
47.5
48 0
48.5
49.2
50.1
50 8
516
52 2
53.3
54.4
55.1
55 7
56.2
56 7
57.2
57.8
59 6
60.3
610
17,259
17,435
17,907
18,563
19,262
20,054
21,108
21,609
22,566
23,402
23,111
23,097
24,166
24,663
23,795
23,183
23,898
24,027
24,591
24,542
23,204
22,388
8.2
8.4
8.1
7.6
7.2
6.7
5.8
5.7
5.0
5.0
5.3
5.3
5.1
4.8
4.9
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.5
6.2
6.9
18.1
18.1
17.2
15.9
15.0
13.9
11.8
11.4
10.0
9.7
10.1
10.0
9.3
8.8
8.8
9.7
9.4
9.3
9.1
9.2
10.3
11.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.6
3.0
3.3
42.4
42.1
42.9
40.4
36.4
38.4
33.1
33.3
32.3
32.7
32.5
33.9
32.7
32.2
32.1
32.5
33.0
31.7
31.4
30.4
32.7
34.6
39.9
39.6
38.6
36.4
36.1
33.2
28.5
27.8
25.4
24.1
25.4
25.6
24.5
23.0
23.4
25.9
25.0
24.7
24.5
26.1
29.3
31.8
22.2
21.9
21.0
19.5
19.0
17.3
14.7
14.2
12.8
12.1
12.6
12.5
11.9
11.1
11.2
12.3
11.8
11.6
11.4
11.7
13.0
14.0
12,530
12,735
13,145
13,400
13,626
14,479
14,870
15,126
15,633
15,950
15,623
15,502
16,196
16,487
15,588
14,960
15,059
15,193
15,244
14,759
13,830
13,473
16,688
17,217
17,517
18,031
18,426
19,019
19,491
19,855
20,427
21,504
21,511
21,628
22,909
23,470
22,430
21,856
22,142
22,617
22,391
21,901
21,162
20,692
3,873
3,888
4,035
4,076
4,249
4,384
4,590
4,906
5,278
5,289
5,240
5,408
5,650
5,722
5,684
5,720
5,713
5,915
5,671
5,453
5,430
5,458
10,122
10,157
10,394
10,563
10,878
11,000
11,283
11,435
11,942
12,595
12,742
12,803
13,159
13,278
13,231
13,044
13,280
13,228
13,440
13,195
12,793
12,457
46 5
47.6
48 5
489
49 4
49 9
501
50 5
509
52.2
52 7
53.3
23,975
23,966
25,107
25,777
24,728
24,110
24,823
25,124
25,606
25,610
24,176
23,517
3.7
3.8
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
4.2
4.7
8.0
7.9
7.1
6.6
6.8
7.7
7.1
7.0
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.8
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.8
25.0
26.5
24.3
24.5
24.8
25.9
25.2
24.0
23.5
22.3
25.7
27.4
17.5
17.8
16.2
15.1
15.7
17.8
16.7
16.4
16.3
17.2
19.7
21.6
9.9
9.9
9.0
8.4
8.6
9.7
9.1
8.9
8.7
19.0
10.2
11.1
16,421
16,252
16,987
17,300
16,329
15,715
15,876
15,913
15,966
15,418
14,710
14,296
22,127
22,237
23,736
24,150
22,867
22,361
22,802
23,080
22,807
22,534
21,766
21,178
5,307
5,497
5,687
5,777
5,749
5,779
5,761
6,005
5,739
5,504
5,460
5,519
12,967
12,951
13,418
13,503
13,343
13,074
13,382
13,312
13,567
13,311
12,917
12,665
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.9
6.2
6.3
6.4
14,707
14,462
14,922
14,877
14,765
14,835
14,766
14,352
15,166
14,502
13,989
13,266
1.5 29.5
1.5 28.8
1.5 29.0
1.5 28.1
1.5 26.9
1.5 27.1
1.6 27.9
1.6 28.2
1.6 27.5
1.7 27.8
1.8 28.9
2.0 30.8
.8
.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
54.3
53.5
53.3
52.7
52.2
50.1
52.2
51.0
50.6
49.4
49.4
52.9
7.5
7.4
7.7
7.4
7.2
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.6
8.1
8.6
9.2
33.5
32.5
33.3
31.4
30.3
31.3
31.1
31.3
30.6
31.0
32.5
34.2
9,737
9,692
10,289
10,464
10,118
9,395
9,559
9,443
9,565
9,544
8,840
8,501
15,072
15,205
16,029
16,276
16,383
16,641
16,331
15,912
17,468
16,240
15,314
14,984
4,832
4,817
5,313
5,215
5,190
5,250
5,429
5,185
5,168
5,009
5,055
4,903
0,624
1,435
1,479
1,451
2,314
2,491
2,511
2,442
2,574
2,197
2,047
1,438
$9,080
9,710
11,405
54,141
3,601
$14,405 3,804 (9,289
1
The term "family" refers to a group of two or more persons related by blood, marriage, or adoption and residing together; all such
persons are considered members 01 the same family. Beginning 1979 based on householder concept and restricted to primary families.
3
Beginning 1979, data are for persons 15 years and over.
'Based on revised methodology; comparable with succeeding years.
* Based on 1980 census population controls; comparable with succeeding years.
Note.—The poverty level is based on the poverty index adopted by a Federal interagency committee in 1969. That index reflected
different consumption requirements for families based on size and composition, sex and age of family householder, and farm-nonfarm
residence. Minor revisions implemented in 1981 eliminated variations in the poverty thresholds based on two of these variables, farmnonfarm residence and sex of householder. The poverty thresholds are updated every year to reflect changes in the consumer price index
For further details see "Current Population Reports," Series P 60, No. 133.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
194
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
TABLE B-28.—Population by age groups, 1929-82
[Thousands of persons]
Age (years)
July l
Total
Under 5
5-15
16-19
20-24
25-44
45-64
65 and
over
1929
121,767
11,734
26,800
9,127
10,694
35,862
21,076
6,474
1933
125,579
10,612
26,897
9,302
11,152
37,319
22,933
7,363
1939
130,880
10,418
25,179
9,822
11,519
39,354
25,823
8,764
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
132,122
133,402
134,860
136,739
138,397
10,579
10,850
11,301
12,016
12,524
24,811
24,516
24,231
24,093
23,949
9,895
9,840
9,730
9,607
9,561
11,690
11,807
11,955
12,064
12,062
39,868
40,383
40,861
41,420
42,016
26,249
26,718
27,196
27,671
28,138
9,031
9,288
9,584
9,867
10,147
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
139,928
141,389
144,126
146,631
149,188
12,979
13,244
14,406
14,919
15,607
23,907
24,103
24,468
25,209
25,852
9,361
9,119
9,097
8,952
8,788
12,036
12,004
11,814
11,794
11,700
42,521
43,027
43,657
44,288
44,916
28,630
29,064
29,498
29,931
30,405
10,494
10,828
11,185
11,538
11,921
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
152,271
154,878
157,553
160,184
163,026
16,410
17,333
17,312
17,638
18,057
26,721
27,279
28,894
30,227
31,480
8,542
8,446
8,414
8,460
8,637
11,680
11,552
11,350
11,062
10,832
45,672
46,103
46,495
46,786
47,001
30,849
31,362
31,884
32,394
32,942
12,397
12,803
13,203
13,617
14,076
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
165,931
168,903
171,984
174,882
177,830
18,566
19,003
19,494
19,887
20,175
32,682
33,994
35,272
36,445
37,368
8,744
8,916
9,195
9,543
10,215
10,714
10,616
10,603
10,756
10,969
47,194
47,379
47,440
47,337
47,192
33,506
34,057
34,591
35,109
35,663
14,525
14,938
15,388
15,806
16,248
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
180,671
183,691
186,538
189,242
191,889
20,341
20,522
20,469
20,342
20,165
38,494
39,765
41,205
41,626
42,297
10,683
11,025
11,180
12,007
12,736
11,134
11,483
11,959
12,714
13,269
47,140
47,084
47,013
46,994
46,958
36,203
36,722
37,255
37,782
38,338
16,675
17,089
17,457
17,778
18,127
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
194,303
196,560
198,712
200,706
202,677
19,824
19,208
18,563
17,913
17,376
42,938
43,702
44,244
44,622
44,840
13,516
14,311
14,200
14,452
14,800
13,746
14,050
15,248
15,786
16,480
46,912
47,001
47,194
47,721
48,064
38,916
39,534
40,193
40,846
41,437
18,451
18,755
19,071
19,365
19,680
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
205,052
207,661
209,896
211,909
213,854
17,166
17,244
17,101
16,851
16;487
44,816
44,591
44,203
43,582
42,989
15,289
15,688
16,039
16,446
16,769
17,202
18,159
18,153
18,521
18,975
48,473
48,936
50,482
51,749
53,051
41,999
42,482
42,898
43,235
43,522
20,107
20,561
21,020
21,525
22,061
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
215,973
218,035
220,239
222,585
225,055
16,121
15,617
15,564
15,735
16,063
42,508
42,099
41,298
40,428
39,552
17,017
17,194
17,276
17,288
17,242
19,527
19,986
20,499
20,946
21,297
54,302
55,852
57,561
59,400
61,379
43,801
44,008
44,150
44,286
44,390
22,696
23,278
23,892
24,502
25,134
1980
1981
1982
227,658
229,807
231,990
16,448
16,939
38,814
38,040
17,131
16,679
21,605
21,938
63,465
65,487
44,487
44,471
25,708
26,253
1
Not available.
Note.—Includes Armed Forces overseas beginning 1940. Includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1950.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
195
TABLE B-29-—Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-82
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Civilian labor force
participation rate 2
Civilian labor force
Year or month
Noninstitutional
population »
Armed
Forces l
Unemployment
ment rate
(percent
of civilian
labor
1,550
3.2
12,830
24.9
9,480
17.2
8,120
5,560
2,660
1,070
670
14.6
9.9
4.7
1.9
1.2
55.7
56.0
57.2
58.7
58.6
83.7
84.3
85.6
86.4
87.0
1,040
2,270
2,356
1.9
3.9
3.9
57.2
55.8
56.8
84.8
82.6
84.0
Employment
Total
Total
Agricultural
Nonagricultural
force)
Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over
1929..
1933..
1939,.
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
1945..
1946..
1947..
100,380
101,520
102,610
103,660
104,630
105,530
106,520
107,608
260
250
370
540
1,620
3,970
9,020
11,410
11,440
3,450
1,590
49,180
51,590
55,230
55,640
55,910
56,410
55,540
54,630
53,860
57,520
60,168
47,630 10,450
38,760 10,090
45,750 9,610
47,520 9,540
50,350 9,100
53,750 9,250
54,470 9,080
53,960 8,950
52,820 8,580
55,250 8,320
57,812 8,256
37,180
28,670
36,140
37,980
41,250
44,500
45,390
45,010
44,240
46,930
49,557
Total
Males
Percent
Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over
1947....
1948....
1949....
1950....
1951....
1952....
19533..
1954....
1955....
1956....
1957....
1958....
1959....
I960 3
1961
19628
1963
1964
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970
1971
19723....
1973 3 ....
1974
1975
1976
1977 3
1978 ....
1979
1980..
1981..
1982..
103,418
104,527
105,611
106,645
107,721
108,823
110,601
111,671
112,732
113,811
115,065
116,363
117,881
119,759
121,343
122,981
125,154
127,224
129,236
131,180
133,319
135,562
137,841
140,272
143,033
146,574
149,423
152,349
153.333
158,294
161,166
164,027
166,951
169,848
172,272
174,451
1,591
1,456
1,616
59,350
60,621
61,286
57,038
58,343
57,651
7,890
7,629
7,658
49,148
50,714
49,993
2,311
2,276
3,637
3.9
3.8
5.9
58.3
58.8
58.9
86.4
86.6
86.4
1,649
3,098
3,593
3,547
3,350
3,048
2,856
2,799
2,636
2,551
2,514
2,572
2,827
2,737
2,738
62,208
62,017
62,138
63,015
63,643
58,918
59,961
60,250
61,179
60,109
7,160
6,726
6,500
6,260
6,205
51,758
53,235
53,749
54,919
53,904
3,288
2,055
1,883
1,834
3,532
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.5
59.2
59.3
59.0
58.9
58.8
86.5
86.3
86.0
85.5
65,023
66,552
66,929
67,639
68,369
62,170
63,799
64,071
63,036
64,630
6,450
6,283
5,947
5,586
5,565
55,722
57,514
58,123
57,450
59,065
2,852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740
4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5
59.3
60.0
59.6
59.5
59.3
85.3
85.5
84.8
84.2
83.7
69,628
70,459
70,614
71,833
73,091
65,778
65,746
66,702
67,762
69,305
5,458
5,200
4,944
4,687
4,523
60,318
60,546
61,759
63,076
64,782
3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786
5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
59.4
59.3
58.8
58.7
58.7
83.3
82.9
82.0
81.4
81.0
2,722
3,122
3,446
3,534
3,506
74,455
75,770
77,347
78,737
80,734
71,088
72,895
74,372
75,920
77,902
4,361
3,979
3,844
3,817
3,606
66,726
68,915
70,527
72,103
74,296
3,366
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,832
4.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
58.9
59.2
59.6
59.6
60.1
80.7
80.4
80.4
80.1
79.8
3,188
2,816
2t449
2,326
2,229
82,771
84,382
87,034
89,429
91,949
78,678
79,367
82,153
85,064
86,794
3,463
3,394
3,484
3,470
3,515
75,215
75,972
78,669
81,594
83,279
4,093
5,016
4,882
4,365
5,156
4.9
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
60.4
60.2
60.4
60.8
61.3
79.7
79.1
78.9
78.8
78.7
2,180
2,144
2,133
2,117
2,088
93,775
96,158
99,009
102,251
104,962
85,846
88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
3,408
3,331
3,283
3,387
3,347
82,438
85,421
88,734
92,661
95,477
7,929
7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
8.5
7.7
7.1
6.1
5.8
61.2
61.6
62.3
63.2
63.7
77.9
77.5
77.7
77.9
77.8
2,102
2,142
2,179
106,940
108,670
110,204
99,303
100,397
99,526
3,364
3,368
3,401
95,938
97,030
96,125
7,637
8,273
10,678
7.1
7.6
9.7
63.8
63.9
64.0
77.4
77.0
76.6
See next page for continuation of table.
196
Females
TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-82—Continued
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Civilian labor force
Year or month
Noninstitutional
population 1
Armed
Forcesl
Employment
Total
Total
Agricultural
Nonagricultural
Unemployment
Unemployment rate
(percent
of civilian
labor
force)
Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over
Civilian labor force
participation rate 2
Total
Males
Females
Percent
1980:
Jan
Feb
Mar
168,625
168,846
169,073
169,289
169,494
169,735
2,081
2,086
2,090
2,092
2,088
2,092
106,546
106,637
106,394
106,552
106,892
106,832
99,872
99,963
99,677
99,204
98,922
98,769
3,313
3,387
3,412
3,318
3,385
3,309
96,559
96,576
96,265
95,886
95,537
95,460
6,674
6,674
6,717
7,348
7,970
8,063
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.9
7.5
7.5
64.0
63.9
63.7
63.7
63.9
63.7
77.7
77.8
77.5
77.4
77.6
77.5
51.6
51.5
51.3
51.4
51.5
51.4
170,030
170,217
170,419
170,624
170,814
171,007
2,099
2,114
2,121
2,121
2,119
2,124
107,169
107,116
107,148
107,438
107,596
107,446
98,816
98,829
99,104
99,327
99,567
99,650
3,331
3,247
3,448
3,362
3,387
3,486
95,485
95,582
95,656
95,965
96,180
96,164
8,353
8,287
8,044
8,111
8,029
7,796
7.8
7.7
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.3
63.8
63.7
63.7
63.8
63.8
63.6
77.5
77.3
77.3
77.3
77.3
77.0
51.5
51.5
51.4
51.6
51.6
51.6
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
171,229
171,400
171,581
171,770
171,956
172,172
2,125
2,121
2,128
2,129
2,127
2,131
108,012
108,175
108,471
108,866
109,101
108,440
99,964
100,143
100,504
101,006
100,968
100,393
3,420
3,340
3,356
3,519
3,371
3,360
96,544
96,803
97,148
97,487
97,597
97,033
8,048
8,032
7,967
7.860
8,133
8,047
7.5
7.4
7.3
7.2
7.5
7.4
63.9
63.9
64.0
64.2
64.2
63.8
77.3
77.2
77.3
77.4
77.4
76.7
51.8
52.0
52.1
52.3
52.4
521
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
172,385
172,559
172,758
172,966
173,155
173,330
2,139
2,160
2,165
2,158
2,158
2,164
108,602
108,762
108,375
109,028
109,254
109,066
100,748
100,709
100,104
100,355
100,229
99,677
3,320
3,396
3,358
3,374
3,389
3,219
97,428
97,313
96,746
96,981
96,840
96,458
7,854
8,053
8,271
8,673
9,025
9,389
7.2
7.4
7.6
8.0
8.3
8.6
63.8
63.8
63.5
63.8
63.9
63.7
76.8
76.9
76.7
76.7
76.8
76.7
52.1
52.1
51.7
52.2
52.3
52.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
173,495
173,657
173,843
174,020
174,201
174,364
2,159
2,168
2,175
2,176
2,175
2,173
109,034
109,364
109,478
109,740
110,378
110,147
99,688
99,695
99,597
99,484
99,994
99,681
3,379
3,367
3,367
3,356
3,446
3,371
96,309
96,328
96,230
96,128
96,548
96,310
9,346
9,669
9,881
10,256
10,384
10,466
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.3
9.4
9.5
63.6
63.8
63.8
63.9
64.2
64.0
76.5
76.6
76.5
76.6
77.0
76.5
52.1
52.3
52.3
52.4
52.7
52.7
My
Aug
Sept
Oct
174,544
174,707
174,889
175,069
175,238
175,380
2,180
2,196
2,198
2,188
2,180
2,182
110,416
110,614
110,858
110,752
111,042
111,129
99,588
99,683
99,543
99,176
99,136
99,093
3,445
3,429
3,363
3,413
3,466
3,411
96,143
96,254
96,180
95,763
95,670
95,682
10,828
10,931
11,315
11,570
11,906
12,036
10.2
10.5
10.7
10.8
9.8
9.9
64.1
64.1
64.2
64.1
64.2
64.2
76.5
76.6
76.8
76.7
76.8
76.6
52.9
52.9
52.8
52.7
52.8
53.0
May".'.".'.'"".".'.
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1981:
Nov
Dec
1982:
Nov
Dec
1
2
3
Not seasonally adjusted.
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.
Not strictly comparable with earlier data due to population adjustments as follows: Beginning 1953, introduction of 1950 census
data added about 600,000 to population and about 350,000 to labor force, total employment, and agricultural employment. Beginning
1960, inclusion of Alaska and Hawaii added about 500,000 to population, about 300,000 to labor force, and about 240,000 to
nonagricultural employment. Beginning 1962, introduction of 1960 census data reduced population by about 50,000 and labor force and
employment by about 200,000. Beginning 1972, introduction of 1970 census data added about 800,000 to civilian noninstitutional
population ana about 333,000 to labor force and employment. A subsequent adjustment based on 1970 census in March 1973 added
60,000 to labor force and to employment. Beginning 1978, changes in sampling and estimation procedures introduced into the
household survey added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Unemployment levels and rates were not significantly
affected.
Note.—Labor force data in Tables B-29 through B-35 are based on household interviews and relate to the calendar week including
the 12th Of the month. For definitions of terms, area samples used, historic comparability of the data, comparability with other series,
etc., see "Employment and Earnings."
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
197
TABLE B-30.—Civilian employment and unemployment by sex and age, 1947-82
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment
Civilian employment
Males
Year or
month
Total
Total
16-19
years
1947
1948
1949
57,038 40,995
58,343 41,725
57,651 40,925
1950
1951
1952
1953K..
1954
58,918
59,961
60,250
61,179
60,109
41,578
41,780
41,682
42,430
41,619
2,218
2,344
2,124
2,186
2,156
2,107
2,136
1,985
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
62,170
63,799
64,071
63,036
64,630
42,621
43,379
43,357
42,423
43,466
2,095
2,164
2,115
2,012
2,198
I960 1 .,.,
1961
1962»....
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972»...
1973 >...
1974
65,778
65,746
66,702
67,762
69,305
71,088
72,895
74,372
75,920
77,902
78,678
79,367
82,153
85,064
86,794
43,904
43,656
44,177
44,657
45,474
1975
1976
1977
1978 »....
1979
85,846
88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
1980
1981
1982
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar...,
May...,
June..,
July....
Aug....
fSz
Nov...,
Dec...,
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar....
fc
Females
20
years
and
over
Total
38,776
39,382
38,803
16,045
16,617
16,723
39,394
39,626
39,578
40,296
39,634
16-19
years
Males
20
years
and
over
Total
Total
16-19
years
Females
20
years
and
over
Total
16-19
20
years
and
over
14,354
14,936
15,137
2,311
2,276
3,637
1,692
1,559
2,572
270
256
353
1,422
1,305
2,219
619
717
1,065
144
153
223
475
564
841
17,340
18,181
18,568
18,749
18,490
1,691
1,682
1,588
1,517
1,611
1,612
1,584
1,490
15,824
16,570
16,958
17,164
17,000
3,288
2,055
1,883
1,834
3,532
2,239
1,221
1,185
1,202
2,344
318
191
205
184
310
1,922
1,029
980
1,019
2,035
1,049
834
698
632
1,188
195
145
140
123
191
854
689
559
510
997
40,526
41,216
41,239
40,411
41,267
19,551
20,419
20,714
20,613
21,164
1,547
1,654
1,663
1,570
1,640
18,002
18,767
19,052
19,043
19,524
2,852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740
1,854
1,711
1,841
3,098
2,420
274
269
300
416
398
1,580
1,442
1,541
2,681
2,022
998
1,039
1,018
1,504
1,320
176
209
197
262
256
823
832
821
1,242
1,063
41,543
41,342
41,815
42,251
42,886
43,422
43,668
44,294
44,859
45,388
45,581
45,912
47,130
48,310
48,922
21,874
22,090
22,525
23,105
23,831
3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786
2,060
2,518
2,016
1,971
1,718
1,366
1,717
1,488
1,598
1.581
286
349
313
383
385
1,080
1,368
1,175
1,216
1,195
22,630
23,510
24,397
25,281
26,397
26,952
27,246
28,276
29,484
30,424
3,366
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,832
4,093
5,016
4,882
4,365
5,156
2,486
2,997
2,423
2,472
2,205
1,914
1,551
1,508
1,419
1,403
2,238
2,789
2,659
2,275
2>14
426
479
408
501
487
24,748
25,976
26,893
27,807
29,084
29,688
29,976
31,257
32,715
33,769
1,768
1,793
1,833
1,849
1,929
2,118
2,468
2,496
2,526
2,687
2,735
2,730
2,980
3,231
3,345
20,105
20,296
20,693
21,257
21,903
46,340
46,919
47,479
48,114
48,818
48,990
49,390
50,896
52,349
53,024
2,361
2,315
2,362
2,406
2,587
2,918
3,253
3,186
3,255
3,430
3,409
3,478
3,765
4,039
4,103
479
432
448
426
440
599
693
711
653
757
1,435
1,120
1,060
993
963
1,638
2,097
1,948
1,624
1,957
1,452
1,324
1,468
1,397
1.429
1,855
2,227
2,222
2,089
2,441
395
405
391
412
413
506
568
598
583
665
1,056
921
1,078
985
1,015
1,349
1,658
1,625
1,507
1,777
51,857
53,138
54,728
56,479
57,607
3,839
3,947
4,174
4,336
4,300
48,018
49,190
50,555
52,143
53,308
33,989
35,615
37,289
39,569
41,217
3,263
3,389
3,514
3,734
3,783
30,726
32,226
33,775
35,836
37,434
7,929
7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
4,442
4,036
3,667
3,142
3,120
966
939
874
813
811
3,476
3,098
2,794
2,328
2,308
3,486
3,369
3,324
3,061
3,018
802
780
789
769
743
2,684
2,588
2,535
2292
2,276
3,625 38,492 7,637
3,411 39,590 8,273
3,170 40,086 10,678
4,267
4^77
6,179
913
962
1,090
3,353
3,615
5,089
3,370
3,696
4,499
755
800
2,615
2,895
3,613
3,479
3,500
3,439
3,353
3.540
3,492
3,571
3,544
3,570
3,560
3,638
3:608
762 2,809
778 2,766
805 2,765
800 2,760
792 2,846
778 2,830
3,343
3.513
3,559
3,815
4,026
4,367
3,628
3,609
3,772
3,909
3,973
3,993
761
760
819
866
868
819
2,867
2,849
2,953
3,043
3,105
3,174
4,362
4,451
4,607
4,770
4,818
5,016
3,965
4,183
4,219
4,400
4,463
4,390
856
897
817
872
895
825
3,109
3,286
3,402
3,528
3,568
3,565
5,150
5,232
5,578
5,714
5,865
5,909
4,594
4,586
4,612
4,732
4,900
4,990
922
915
902
908
911
919
3,672
3,671
3,710
3,824
3,989
4,071
99,303 57,186
100,397 57,397
99,526 56,271
4,085 53,101 42,117
3,815 53,582 43,000
3,379 52,891 43,256
99,964
100,143
100,504
101,006
100,968
100,393
57,357
57,337
57,557
57,837
57,739
57,314
3,968
3,933
3,916
3,981
3,892
3,736
53,389
53,404
53,641
53,856
53,847
53,578
42,607
42,806
42,947
43,169
43,229
43,079
3,558
3,538
3,514
3,545
3,504
3,383
39,049
39,268
39,433
39,624
39,725
39,696
8,048
8,032
7,967
7,860
8,133
8,047
4,477
4,448
4,397
4,300
4495
4,439
958
947
955
947
100,748
100,709
100,104
100,355
100,229
99,677
57,614
57,540
57,404
57,257
57,062
56,746
3,786
3,796
3,758
3,750
3,683
3,578
53,828
53,744
53,646
53!507
53,379
53,168
43,134
43,169
42,700
43,098
43,167
42,931
3,413
3,443
3.344
3,263
3,247
3,194
39,721
39,726
39,356
39,835
39,920
39,737
7,854
8,053
8,271
8,673
9,025
9,389
4,226
4,444
4,499
4,764
5,052
5,396
$
949
1,026
1,029
99,688
99,695
99,597
99,484
99,994
99,681
99,588
99,683
99,543
99,176
99,136
99,093
56,667
56,670
56,499
56,444
56,724
56,249
3,568
3,540
3,473
3,420
3,534
3,306
53,099
53,130
53,026
53,024
53,190
52,943
43,021
43,025
43,098
43,040
43,270
43,432
3,204
3,200
3,215
3,213
3,206
3,178
39,817 9,346
39,825 9,669
39,883 9,881
39,827 10,256
40,064 10,384
40,254 10,466
5,381
5,486
5,662
5,856
5,921
6,076
3,150
3,156
3,185
3,132
3,121
3,069
40,311
40,368
40,286
40,112
40,123
40,215
10,828
10,931
11,315
11,576
11,906
12,036
6,234
6,345
6,703
6,844
7,006
7,046
56,127
3,222 52,905 43,461
June..,
56,159 3,327 52,832 43,524
July....
56,072 3,296 52,776 43,471
Aug..
55,932 3,283 52,649 43,244
Sept.
55,892 3,303 52,589 43,244
Oct...
55,809 3,275 52,534 43,284
Nov..
Dec..
1
See footnote 3, Table B-29.
Note.—See Note, Table B-29.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
198
883
1,019
L086
1,103
1,060
1,084
1,113
1,125
1,130
1,141
1,137
TABLE B-31.—Selected employment and unemployment data, 1948-82
[Percent; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Civilian employment as percent of population1
Unemployment rate2
By sex and age
Year or
month
Both Males
20
sexes
Total 16- years
and
19
years over
1948
1949
558
455
54.6
43.0
1950
1951....
1952
1953
1954
1955 "".
1956
1957 .
1958
1959
55 2
55.7
55.4
55.3
53 8
55.1
56.1
55 7
54.2
54.8
43 8
44.9
44.1
43.9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
. 54 9
54.2
54 2
54.1
54 5
55.0
55 6
55.8
56.0
56.5
39.0
37.5
37 6
35.8
35 8
37.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
401
41.3
42.7
411
37.6
38.1
Females
20
years
and
over
White
Black
and
other
All
workers
By selected groups
Males
20
years
and
over
Females
20
years
and
over
92
3.2
5.4
3.6
5.3
43
6.8
3.5
5.4
51
4.0
3.2
2.9
55
44
4.2
4.1
6.1
5.2
6.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
6.2
48
4.4
4.6
7.3
5.7
46
1.5
1.4
1.7
40
2.6
2.3
2.8
5.1
3.6
50
2.6
2.5
5.1
6.3
54
3.7
4.6
36
3.4
28
2.4
19
1.8
1.6
1.5
83 9
81.6
30.7
30.6
3.8
5.9
81.9
81.6
80.8
80.6
78.8
80.0
80.8
31.6
32.6
33.0
32.9
32 3
33.8
34.9
35.0
34.6
35.1
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.5
4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5
12.2
15.9
14.6
4.7
2.5
2.4
2.5
49
3.8
3.4
3.6
6.2
4.7
35.7
35.5
56.8
57 2
56.9
56.6
56.7
5.5
6.7
55
5.7
52
4.5
38
3.8
3.6
3.5
14 7
16.8
14 7
17.2
16 2
14.8
12 8
12.9
12.7
12.2
4.7
5.7
4.6
4.5
39
3.2
25
2!3
2.2
2.1
52
4.5
38
4.2
3.8
3.7
5.7
6.8
56
5.6
50
4.3
35
3.6
3.4
3.3
802
78.0
79.0
13.4
8.2
8.5
7.6
12.6
11.0
11.1
116
Married
men,
spouse
present »
40.4
40.6
42.1
78.7
77.6
77 4
77.3
77 7
77.9
77 6
77.4
77.1
76.9
37.6
38 6
39^3
40.0
41.1
56.1
55.5
56.0
56.9
57.0
55.3
56.1
57.1
58.6
59.2
41.2
40.4
42.6
44.8
45.0
42.3
43.2
45.1
47.4
47.7
76.1
75.3
75.8
76.3
75.7
72.9
73.2
73.7
74.5
74.7
41.2
40.8
41.3
42.2
42.7
42.3
43.5
44.7
46.5
47.6
56.2
55.7
56.4
57.3
57.5
55.9
56.8
57.9
59.3
60.0
55.5
53.8
53.2
54.0
53.3
50.4
51.0
51.5
53.7
54.0
4.9
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
8.5
7.7
7.1
6.1
5.8
15.3
16.9
16.2
14.5
16.0
19.9
19.0
17.8
16.4
16.1
3.5
4.4
4.0
3.3
3.8
6.8
5.9
5.2
4.3
4.2
4.8
5.7
5.4
4.9
5.5
8.0
7.4
7.0
6.0
5.7
4.8
5.7
5.3
4.5
5.3
8.2
7.3
6.6
5.6
5.5
2.6
3.2
2.8
2.3
2.7
5.1
4.2
3.6
2.8
2.8
58.5
58.3
57.1
45.8
43.7
40.8
72.9
72.3
70.2
48.0
48.5
48.3
59.4
59.3
58.2
52.4
51.4
49.8
7.1
7.6
9.7
17.8
19.6
23.2
5.9
6.3
8.8
6.4
6.8
8.3
6.9
7.3
9.3
4.2
4.3
6.5
1981:
Jan.... 58.4
Feb.... 58.4
Mar... 58.6
58.8
58.7
June.. 58.3
45.0
44.8
44.6
45.3
44.6
43.0
72.6
72.6
72.8
73.0
72.8
72.4
48.2
48.4
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.7
59.3
59.5
59.5
59.8
59.7
59.4
52.1
51.6
52.0
52.5
52.0
51.2
7.5
19.0
6.1
6.7
7.1
4.2
7.4
19.1
6.2
6.6
6.6
7.1
4.2
6.5
6.7
6.7
7.0
6.8
7.2
7.0
4.2
3.8
4.0
4.2
58.4
58.4
57.9
58.0
57.9
57.5
43.6
44.0
43.2
42.8
42.4
41.5
72.6
72.4
72.1
71.8
71.5
71.2
48.6
48.6
48.0
48.5
48.6
48.3
59.5
59.5
59.0
59.1
58.9
58.6
51.3
50.9
51.1
51.0
51.0
50.6
1982:
Jan.... 57.5
Feb.... 57.4
Mar... 57.3
57.2
May!" 57.4
June.. 57.2
41.6
41.5
41.3
41.1
41.8
40.4
71.0
70.9
70.7
70.6
70.7
70.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.1
48.3
48.5
58.5
58.5
58.4
58.3
58.5
58.3
57.1
57.1
56.9
56.6
56.6
56.5
39.8
40.6
40.7
40.4
40.6
40.1
70.1
69.9
69.8
69.5
69.3
69.1
48.5
48.5
48.4
48.1
48.0
48.1
58.2
58.2
58.1
57.7
57.7
57.6
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct....
Nov...
Dec...
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct....
Nov...
Dec...
407
358
36.2
54.0
55.2
369
543
561
54.8
55 4
55.7
55.9
56.5
Women
who
maintain
families
Both
sexes
1819
years
Experienced
wage
and
salary
workers
5'.4
Fulltime
workers*
52
3.8
3.7
40
7.2
6.7
4.9
4.4
4.4
5.4
7.3
7.2
7.1
7.0
10.0
10.1
9.4
8.5
8.3
9.2
5.5
49
4.2
35
34
3.1
3.1
4.5
5.5
5.1
4.4
5.1
8.1
7.3
6.6
5.6
5.3
Bluecollar
workers 5
42
8.0
7.2
3.9
3.6
34
7.2
5.8
5.1
6.2
10.2
7.6
7.8
9.2
74
7.3
63
5.3
42
4.4
4.1
3.9
6.2
7.4
6.5
5.4
6.7
11.7
9.4
8.1
6.9
7.0
6.9
7.3
9.6
10.0
10.3
10.3
9.9
7.2
9.8
9.9
10.1
10.2
10.0
10.4
10.5
7.1
6.9
7.1
7.1
10.4
11.7
7.2
4.2
19.2
18.8
19.1
19.5
6.0
5.9
6.2
6.1
7.2
7.4
7.6
8.0
8.3
8.6
18.6
18.9
19.9
20.6
21.5
21.4
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.7
7.0
7.6
6.7
6.7
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.4
6.9
7.0
7.3
7.6
7.9
8.4
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.7
5.0
5.6
11.2
10.2
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.3
6.9
7.0
7.3
7.7
8.0
8.5
10.2
10.9
11.6
12.6
50.5
50.3
50.1
49.7
50.1
49.7
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.3
9.4
9.5
21.7
22.3
21.9
22.8
22.9
22.5
7.6
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.3
8.7
7.2
7.6
7.9
8.1
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.5
8.7
9.1
9.2
9.2
5.3
5.4
5.6
6.0
6.1
6.4
10.4
10.4
10.8
11.5
11.9
12.1
8.4
8.5
8.9
9.1
9.2
9.4
12.4
12.5
13.0
13.5
13.6
14.0
49.8
49.7
49.6
49.5
49.3
49.3
9.8
9.9
23.9
23.8
23.8
24.1
24.2
24.5
8.9
9.0
9.6
9.8
8.3
8.3
8.4
8.7
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.8
6.6
6.8
7.2
7.5
7.6
7.8
12.0
11.7
12.4
11.3
12.5
13.2
9.6
9.7
14.4
14.4
15.5
15.8
16.2
16.3
7.3
7.2
7.5
7.4
10.2
10.5
10.7
10.8
10.0
10.1
10.1
10.5
10.7
10.2
10.5
10.6
10.8
9.6
9.9
9.8
9.6
9.7
1
Civilian employment as percent of total noninstitutional population.
2
Unemployment as percent of civilian labor force in group specified.
3 Data for 1949 and 1951-54 are for April; 1950, for March.
* Data for 1949-61 are for May.
8
Includes craft and kindred workers, operatives, and nonfarm laborers. Data for 1948-57 are based on data for January, April, July,
and October.
Note—Data relate to persons 16 years of age and over. See footnote 3 and Note, Table B-29.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
199
TABLE B-32.—Civilian labor force participation rate by demographic characteristic, 1954-82
[Percent;1 monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Black and other
White
All
civilian
work- Total
Total
ers
Year or month
16-19
years
Males
Females
Males
20
years Total
and
over
16-19
years
20
years Total Total
and
over
16-19
years
Females
20
years
and Total
over
16-19
years
20
years
and
over
1954
58.8
58.2
85.6
57.6
87.8
33.3
40.6
32.7
64.3
85.2
61.2
87,1
46.1
31.0
47.7
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
59.3
58.7
59.4
59.1
85.4
85 6
84.8
84 3
83.8
58.6
60.4
59.2
56 5
55.9
87.5
87 6
86.9
34.5
35.7
35.7
35.8
36.0
40.7
64.2
64 9
64.4
64 8
64.3
85,0
85,1
84,3
84 0
83.4
60.8
61.5
58.8
57.3
55.5
87.8
87.8
87.0
33.2
86.7
46.1
47.3
47,2
48.0
47.7
32.7
39.6
34.0
35.1
35.2
35 5
35.6
47 S
48.4
4ft fi
49 8
49.8
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
59.4
59 3
58.8
58 7
58.7
58.8
58 8
58.3
58.2
58.2
83.4
86.0
85 7
84.9
84 4
84.2
36.5
36.7
37.2
37.5
40.3
40 6
39.8
38 7
37.8
36.2
36 6
36.5
37.0
37.5
64 5
81.1
55.9
54 5
53.8
53.1
52.7
63.2
63 0
63.1
83.0
82 2
80.8
80.2
80.0
57.6
55.8
53.5
51.5
49.9
86.2
85 5
84.2
83.9
84.1
48.2
48 3
48.0
48.1
48.5
32.9
32 8
33.1
32 6
31.7
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
58.9
59 2
59.6
59 6
60.1
58.4
58.7
59.2
80.8
806
80.7
54.1
55.9
56.3
804
559
59.9
80.2
56.8
38.1
39.2
40.1
40 7
41.8
39.2
42 6
42.5
43 0
44.6
38.0
38.8
39.8
593
83.9
836
83.5
83 2
83.0
41.5
62.9
630
62.8
62 2
62.1
79.6
79.0
78,5
77 6
76.9
51.3
51.4
51.1
49.7
49.6
83.7
83.3
82.9
82 2
81.4
48.6
49.3
49.5
49.3
49.8
29.5
33 5
35.2
34 8
34.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
60.4
60.2
60.4
60.8
61.3
60.2
60.1
60.4
60.8
61.4
80.0
79.6
79.6
79.4
79.4
57.5
57.9
60.1
62.0
62.9
82.8
82.3
82 0
81.6
81.4
42.6
42.6
43.2
44.1
45.2
45.6
45.4
481
50.1
51.7
42.2
42.3
42.7
43.5
44.4
61.8
60.9
60 2
60.5
60.3
76.5
74.9
73.9
74.0
73.5
47.4
44.7
46.0
46.3
47.2
81.4
80.0
78.6
78.6
78.0
49.5
49.2
48.8
49.3
49.3
34.1
31.2
32.3
34.4
34.1
51.8
51.8
51.2
51.4
51.5
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
61.2
61.6
62 3
63.2
63.7
61.5
61.8
62 5
63.3
63.9
787
78.4
78 5
78.6
78.6
61.9
62,3
64 0
65.0
64.8
80 7
80.3
80 2
80.1
80.1
459
46.9
480
49.4
50.5
515
52.8
545
56.7
57.4
45 3
46.2
47 3
48.7
49.8
596
59.8
604
62.2
62.2
71.9
71.2
716
72.6
72.5
42.9
42.3
43.6
45.4
44.0
76 8
76.1
762
77.1
77.1
49.4
50.4
51.2
53.5
53.7
35.6
33.6
336
38.0
37.8
51.4
52.8
53.6
55.6
55.8
1980
1981
1982
63.8
63.9
64.0
64.1
64.3
64.3
78.2
77,9
77.4
63.7
62.4
60.0
79.8
79 5
79.2
51.2
51,9
52.4
56.2
554
55.0
50.6
515
52.2
61.7
613
61.6
71.5
70 6
71.0
43.5
41.7
40.6
75.9
75.0
75.4
53.6
53.6
53.9
35.9
34.5
34.5
%\
63.9
63.9
64.0
64.2
64.2
63.8
64.3
64.3
64.4
64.5
64.7
64.2
78.1
78.2
78 2
78.3
78.4
77.7
63.6
64.0
63 6
63.6
62.9
61.1
79.7
79.7
798
79.9
80.0
79.5
51.7
51.8
518
51.9
52.2
51.8
56.0
56.5
56 2
56.4
56.2
54.4
51.2
51.3
514
51.5
51.9
51.6
61.3
60.8
616
61.9
61.5
61.1
71.0
70.1
706
70.9
71.0
70.0
45.3
41.7
41.2
44.9
43.9
40.5
74.9
74.5
751
74.9
75.2
74.5
53.3
53.0
54.1
54.4
53.6
53.7
36.0
32.3
35 9
37.7
34.6
34.8
55.5
55.7
56.4
56.5
56.0
56.1
63.8
63.8
63.5
63 8
63.9
63.7
64.2
64.2
63.9
64 2
64.2
64.2
77 7
77.7
77.5
77 6
77.7
77.7
61.1
61.8
62.0
62 2
62.4
61.0
79 5
79.4
79 2
79 2
79.2
79.4
52 0
51.9
515
551
56.0
551
517
51.5
511
60 8
61.1
612
69 9
70.9
708
74.4
75.5
75.5
75 5
75.0
74.9
53.3
53.0
53.4
53.9
54.1
53.7
32,4
31.3
33.2
37 4
35.0
32.9
55.9
55.8
55.9
560
63.6
63.8
63 8
63.9
64,2
64.0
64.0
64.1
61.1
60 9
60 3
60.6
62.4
58.7
791
64.3
64.6
64.4
77.3
77 4
77 4
77.5
77.9
77.3
64.4
64.4
64.6
64.4
64.5
64.6
77 2
77 4
77.7
77.6
77.6
77.5
57.9
59 7
59.4
59.4
60.0
59.6
600
59.6
59 5
59.3
,
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
!&:::::::
June
July
Aug ........
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
ft
June
:*:"
Auc
Sept
.....
<3 :
Nov
Dec
64.1
641
64.2
64.1
64.2
64.2
589
58.7
641
830
82.1
815
866
86.3
79.0
792
79.2
79.5
79.2
79 2
791
79.5
79.4
79.4
79.3
369
431
42.2
401
404
641
363
319
28.2
49.9
501
49.6
499
50.7
51.1
51.6
S1fi
514
52.0
55.9
56.3
519
542
517
615
707
52.0
51.8
54.6
53.8
51.8
51.7
61.5
61.4
70.5
70.7
40.8
40.8
39.3
39 2
40.7
41.6
51.9
52 0
52 0
52.3
52.5
52.5
54.6
549
54 4
55.7
55.4
54.6
51.6
517
61.2
612
51.9
52.2
52.4
61.1
61.7
61.3
70.4
70 4
70 4
70.7
70.8
70.7
39.9
41.7
40.9
38.7
41.1
37.7
74.9
74 6
74.8
75.4
75.2
75.6
53.6
53.6
54.0
53.2
54.2
53.6
33.5
34 6
33.4
31,9
34,1
31,5
56.1
56.0
56.5
55.8
56.7
56.4
52 8
52 7
52.7
52.4
52.6
52.8
550
55 0
55.3
55.2
55.1
54.6
52 6
52 5
52.4
52.1
52.4
52.6
616
712
39.3
41.4
41.7
42.0
41.3
40.7
75.9
75 5
75.8
75.8
75.9
76.0
53.8
54.2
54.1
54.2
53.7
54.3
34 9
561
56 2
56.2
56.4
55.9
56.5
518
614
618
61.9
62.0
61.8
62.1
711
71.4
71.4
71.5
71.5
1
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population in group specified.
Note.—Data relate to persons 16 years of age and over.
See footnote 3 and Note, Table B-29.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
871
200
369
36.4
35.6
35.3
35.8
56.5
56.4
TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment rate by demographic characteristic, 1948-82
[Percent;1 monthly data seasonally adjusted]
White
Year or month
All
civilian
work- Total
Total
ers
Black and other
16-19
years
20
years Total
and
over
16-19
years
Females
Males
Females
Males
20
years Total Total
and
over
20
16-19
years
years Total
and
over
1948
1949
3.8
59
3.5
56
3.4
56
3.8
57
5.9
89
5.8
9.6
53
33
30
29
5.5
49
3.1
28
2.7
5.0
47
2.6
25
25
4.8
9.4
4.9
5.2
4.8
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
4.4
41
3.9
36
3.7
34
4.3
68
3.8
61
3.6
61
5.5
4.8
4.6
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
5.5
5.0
48
67
55
57
5.2
60
4.9
50
4.6
57
46
47
4.1
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
4.5
38
4.1
3.4
3.6
28
20
years
and
over
20.6
8.4
19.2
22 8
20.2
28 4
27.7
7.7
78
24.8
29 2
30.2
34 7
31.6
83
10 6
7.5
66
61
79
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
16=19
years
2.7
26
13.4
4.4
53
4.2
33
3.1
5.5
10.4
5.1
90
5.3
54
4.5
9.9
10.3
14.4
9.9
84
6.1
57
4.1
9.2
11.3
10 5
11.5
15 7
14.0
3.3
3.0
4.3
42
9.1
9.7
3.9
37
8.7
8.3
8.8
7.9
8.4
7.4
3.2
5.5
9.5
3.8
56
7.9
8.3
8.5
89
4.3
62
4.1
5.3
12 6
10.7
13.7
11.5
13.4
15.0
18.4
26 8
25.2
14.0
15 7
13.7
15 9
14.7
4.2
5.3
5.1
4.0
3.9
3.4
65
5.5
58
5.5
10.2
12.4
10.9
10.8
10.7
12.8
10.9
10 5
9.6
8.9
12.9
10.5
10.7
2.9
2.2
5.0
4.3
8.1
7.3
7.4
6.3
4.6
4.3
3.2
4.0
3.6
3.0
3.5
5.4
6.3
5.9
5.3
6.1
6.2
86
3.5
3.1
2.5
10.0
1.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
4.9
59
5.6
4.9
5.6
4.5
54
5.1
4.3
5.0
4.0
49
4.5
38
4.4
13.7
151
14.2
12.3
13.5
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
85
6.4
55
72
6.1
5.8
78
7.0
62
5.2
5.1
4.6
4.5
18 3
17.3
15 0
13.5
13.9
1980
1981
1982
76
9.7
6.3
67
8.6
65
8.8
7.5
6.6
73
72
75
6.4
64
66
6.4
63
6.3
63
66
fi9
7.3
7.6
59
62
64
6.8
7.2
76
76
1981:
Jan
Mar
Apr
My
a
74
June
7.4
July
72
74
76
8.0
8.3
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
My
a
June
July
Aug
Sept
o5 :
Nov
Dec
8.6
86
88
9.0
9.3
94
95
9.8
99
10 2
10 5
10 7
10.8
6,5
77
7.9
8.3
84
84
8.7
8.7
9.1
93
96
9.7
64
64
61
65
6.3
7.8
77
8.0
8.4
85
86
8.9
9.1
95
98
10 0
10.1
5.4
4.7
7.9
73
9.2
87
4.3
3.9
9.1
8.3
3.7
7.8
31.7
31.3
29.6
28.7
27.6
112
94
90
4.4
5.3
4.9
4.3
5.1
8.2
9.9
10.0
9.0
9.9
7.3
9.1
8.9
7.7
9.2
25.0
28.8
29.7
26.9
31.5
5.6
7.3
6.9
5.8
6.9
9.3
10.9
11.4
10.6
10.8
34.5
35.4
38.4
34.4
34.5
6.9
87
8.8
8?
8.5
17.4
16.4
15.9
14.4
14.0
75
13.8
13.1
13.1
11.9
11.3
13.6
12.7
12.3
11.0
10.4
35.2
35.1
36.6
34.0
31.3
11.6
10.6
10.0
8.7
8.5
13.9
13.6
13.9
13.0
12.3
38.3
38.8
39.6
38.1
35.6
11 5
11 3
14.8
16 6
19.0
5.6
13.1
14.2
17.3
13.2
14.1
18.2
34.4
37.5
44.0
11.3
12.1
16.2
13.1
14.3
16.4
36.5
38.3
43.8
11 1
15.5
16.0
15.9
16.2
16.6
16.3
6.0
5.7
13.1
13.2
13.6
13.2
13.6
14.2
13.2
13.0
12.7
12.9
13.6
14.4
39.6
36.3
32.9
36.8
34.1
38.1
10.7
11.0
11.0
10.7
11.7
12.4
13.0
13.4
14.5
13.6
13.5
14.0
33.1
34.8
42.2
35.5
33.3
37.4
114
11.8
56
5.6
5.9
16.3
15.7
17.2
17.5
18.3
17.7
5.8
137
37.0
44.5
35.7
39.1
38.4
37.7
11.9
12.4
12.5
33.2
41.2
38.8
46.1
41.4
41.4
1??
6.4
13.8
14.9
14.2
14 8
15.5
16.2
13 fi
14 7
14.6
15?
15?
15.7
34.9
39.0
44.0
42.8
44.1
48.1
14.6
14.6
15.1
15.3
15.5
16.0
149
11S
171
16.1
16.4
17.3
17.3
17.6
18.2
17.4
177
181
184
18*)
18.8
18.0
18.5
19.5
19.9
19.7
20.3
45.3
45.4
45.8
43.8
48.0
46.7
15.9
16.3
17.3
18.0
17.4
18.2
16.7
169
69
8.3
17.4
18 0
17 9
17 0
17 6
17.8
5.5
6.9
16.7
16 7
17 8
17.9
19.7
20.2
5.1
6.8
70
7.1
7.4
7.4
20 6
20 4
20.4
21.9
20.9
212
6.6
6.7
7.0
7.3
7.5
7.7
7.5
77
7.8
8.1
8.2
8.1
18.1
19.0
17.9
18.8
18.7
18.0
22.5
22.5
22.2
23.0
22 6
22.8
7.9
8.0
8.3
8.3
19.1
18.9
19.1
19.9
19.8
20.4
8.5
8.7
9.0
9.2
6.0
4.9
11.0
13.4
15.1
14.2
13.0
14.5
6.5
8.6
8.8
9.1
9.2
10.7
119
8.3
5.3
56
7.8
6.5
9.2
7.7
9.4
6.4
5.3
6.8
9.6
11.7
10.0
3.4
16.2
17 9
21.7
5.3
5.4
5.9
6.2
24.0
26 8
22.0
27 3
24.3
64
95
23.3
21.3
23.9
22.1
21.4
6.2
5.9
6.7
6.6
67
6.9
6.7
9.4
6.0
5.6
3.7
3.6
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.5
5.3
12 7
10.5
7.3
108
7.4
6.7
1
Unemployment as percent of civilian labor force in group specified.
Note.—See footnote 3 and Note, Table B-29.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
57
4.7
48
4.6
4.2
101
2.1
2.0
61
4.6
4.0
3.3
3.4
3.2
7.1
12.7
14.8
12.8
15.1
14.9
4.7
14.0
12.1
11.5
12.1
11.5
3.8
36
7.7
71
12 7
12.0
7.6
201
3.8
3.4
6.8
62
5.2
5.0
59
7.3
5.7
5.6
6.0
6.1
6.3
6.4
66
6.8
7.1
7.2
7.1
7.3
7.2
7.5
7.6
8.0
8.1
148
15.5
16.0
16.6
1fi8
171
13.6
14.4
15 6
148
15.1
15.8
lfi?
164
160
Ififi
188
17?
17.2
71
63
5.8
117
10.6
10.2
14 3
117
1??
133
13,0
13.1
42.6
41.8
41.0
42.0
45.7
43.1
134
14.0
144
47.7
49.7
43.3
42.3
43.1
42.7
14.4
14 3
144
149
15?
15.3
14 3
14?
TABLE B-34.—Unemployment by duration, 1947-82
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted 1 ]
Year or month
Total
unemployment
Duration of unemployment
Less than
5 weeks
5-14
weeks
15=26
weeks
27 weeks
and over
Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over
1947
1948
1949
2,311
2,276
3,637
1,210
1,300
1>56
704
669
1,194
234
193
428
164
116
256
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
3,288
2,055
1,883
1,834
3,532
1,450
1,177
1,135
1,142
1,605
1,055
574
516
482
1,116
425
166
148
132
495
357
137
84
78
317
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
2,852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740
1,335
1,412
1,408
1,753
1,585
815
805
891
1,396
1,114
366
301
321
785
469
336
232
239
667
571
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786
1,719
1,806
1,663
1,751
1,697
1,176
1,376
1,134
1,231
1,117
503
728
534
535
491
454
804
585
553
482
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
3,366
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,832
1,628
1,573
1,634
1,594
1,629
983
779
893
810
827
404
287
271
256
242
351
239
177
156
133
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
4,093
5,016
4,882
4,365
5,156
2,139
2,245
2,242
2,224
2,604
1,290
1,585
1,472
1,314
1,597
428
668
601
483
574
235
519
566
343
381
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
7,929
7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
2,940
2,844
2,919
2,865
2,950
2,484
2,196
2,132
1,923
1,946
1,303
1,018
913
766
706
1,203
1,348
1,028
648
535
1980
1981
1982
7,637
8,273
10,678
3,295
3,449
3883
2,470
2,539
3,311
1,052
1,122
1,708
820
1,162
1,776
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
8,048
8,032
7,967
7,860
8,133
8,047
3,278
3,284
3,278
3,167
3,382
3,342
2,332
2,390
2,422
2,445
2,579
2,390
1,123
1,096
1,056
1,095
1,063
1,146
1,272
1,243
1,218
1,133
1,158
1,131
July
Aug
Sept
Ocl
Nov
Dec
7,854
8,053
8,271
8,673
9,025
9,389
3,317
3,341
3,515
3,696
3,820
4,040
2,371
2,493
2,544
2,677
2,847
3,028
1,085
1,065
1,130
1,169
1,218
1,224
1,076
1,148
1,111
1,123
1,140
1,183
9,346
9,669
9,881
10,256
10,384
10,466
3,830
3,807
3,831
3,930
3,871
3,605
3,079
3,068
3,098
3,255
3,281
3,398
1,209
1,479
1,605
1,582
1,633
1,683
1,193
1,271
1,357
1,498
1,634
1,834
10,828
10,931
11,315
11,576
11,906
12,036
3,959
3,933
4,004
3,930
3,963
4,019
3,249
3,346
3,549
3,511
3,549
3,460
1,780
1,808
1,830
1,951
2,191
2,125
1,789
1,829
2,026
2,216
2,333
2,607
1981:
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
fc
June
July
Aug
It.:::
Nov
Dec
1
Because of independent seasonal adjustment of the various series, detail will not add to totals.
Note.=See footnote 3 and Note, Table B-29.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
202
TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reason, 1967-82
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted1]
Year or month
Total
unemployment
Job losers
Job leavers
Reentrants
New
entrants
Thousands of persons
1967....
1968
1969....
2,975
2,817
2,832
1,229
1,070
1,017
438
431
436
945
909
965
396
407
413
1970....
1971
1972
1973
1974....
4,093
5,016
4,882
4,365
5,156
7,929
7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273
10,678
1,811
2,323
2,108
1,694
2,242
4,386
3,679
3,166
2,585
2,635
3,947
4,267
6,268
550
590
641
683
768
827
903
909
874
880
1,228
1,472
1,456
1,340
1,463
1,892
1,928
1,963
1,857
1,806
504
630
677
649
681
891
923
840
1,927
2,102
2,384
872
981
1,185
9,346
9,669
9,881
10,256
10,384
10,466
10,828
10,931
11,315
11,576
11,906
12,036
5,243
5,246
5,628
5,889
5,938
6,181
6,323
6,446
6,979
7,325
7,369
7,295
842
942
885
901
864
826
819
814
786
803
794
826
2,133
2,272
2,261
2,342
2,393
2,378
2,478
2,440
2,437
2,322
2,546
2,629
1,055
1,096
1,061
1,096
1,159
1,091
1,230
1,304
1,303
1,296
1,244
1,288
1975....
1976
1977....
1978
1979....
1980....
1981
1982
823
895
953
885
817
1982:
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
May".
June.
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
Percent of civilian tabor force
1967....
1968....
1969....
3.8
3.6
3.5
1.6
1.3
1.2
0.6
.5
.5
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.5
.5
.5
1970
1971....
1972
1973
1974....
4.9
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
2.2
2.8
2.4
1.9
2.4
.7
.7
.7
.8
.8
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.6
.6
.7
.8
.7
.7
1975....
1976....
1978....
1979....
8.5
7.7
7.1
6.1
5.8
4.7
3.8
3.2
2.5
2.5
.9
.9
.9
.9
.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.7
.9
.9
1.0
.9
.8
1980....
1981
1982
7.1
7.6
9.7
3.7
3.9
5.7
1.8
1.9
2.2
.9
1.1
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May.
June.
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.3
9.4
9.5
4.8
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.6
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
9.8
9.9
10.2
10.5
10.7
10.8
5.7
5.8
6.3
6.6
6.6
6.6
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.3
2.4
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.2
1977
1982:
1
Because of independent seasonal adjustment of the various series, detail will not add to totals.
Note.—Data relate to persons 16 years of age and over.
See footnote 3 and Note, Table B-29.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
203
TABLB B-36.—Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1946-82
All programs
Year or month
Covered
employment 1
State programs
Insured
Total
unemploy- benefits
Insured
paid
ment
unem(millions ployment
(weekly
of 2
average) • • dollars) *
31,856
33,876
34,646
33,098
34,308
36,334
37,006
38,072
36,622
40,018
42,751
43,436
44,411
45,728
46,334
46,266
47,776
48,434
49,637
51,580
54,739
56,342
57,977
59,999
59,526
59,375
66,458
69,897
72,451
71,037
73,459
76,419
92,062
92,659
93,300
flfay"..
June..
July...
Aug...
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan,.
Feb..
Mar..
fc
June..
July
Aug
Sept
Ocf
Nov
Dec
Exhaustions 5
Weekly average; thousands
Thousands
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 •>...
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar...,
Initial
claims
Benefits paid
Insured
unemployment as
percent
Average
Total
of
(millions
weekly
covered
check
of
employ- dollars)* (dollars)s
ment
13,761.1
13,257.8
425
424
420
402
401
413
3,9
3.5
**
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
18.50
17.83
19.03
20.48
20.76
21.09
22.79
23.58
24.93
25.04
27.02
28.17
30.58
30.41
32.87
33.80
34.56
35.27
35.92
37.19
39.75
41.25
43.43
46.17
50.34
54.02
56.76
59.00
64.25
70.23
75.16
78.79
83.67
89.67
98.95
106.54
1,419.6
1,315.3
1,394.7
1,226.7
1,006.2
1,009.8
103.67
104.48
105.74
105.98
105.47
104.59
2,801
2,867
2,941
3,127
3,400
3,613
411
436
472
511
542
560
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.9
4.1
1,062.0
1,006.6
1,001.2
997.8
1,080.8
1,592.5
103.56
106.02
107.39
108.92
110.51
112.89
1,835.1
1,904.5
2,295.2
2,141.1
1,871.9
2,003.9
3,577
3,582
3,775
3,982
3,972
4,011
563
529
574
573
579
560
4.1
4.1
4.3
4.6
4.5
4.6
1,764.2
1,783.4
2,072.6
1,849.9
1,573.4
1,692.2
114.83
117.05
117.10
117.61
118.08
118.64"
1,929.2
2,033.0
2,003.7
1,927.3
2,044.5
3,988
4,136
4,379
4,615
4,635
4,428
539
617
654
659
618
546
4.6
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.3
5.1
1,679.4
1,746.2
1,710.6
1,646.6
1,810.3
117.28
118.97
120.78
122.75
123.22
2,804
1,793
1,446
2,474
1,605
1,000
1,069
1,067
2,051
1,399
1,323
1.571
2,773
1,860
2,071
2,994
1,946
7
1,973
1,753
1,450
1,129
1,270
1,187
1,177
2,070
2,608
2,192
1,793
2,558
4,937
3,846
3,308
2,645
2,592
3,837
3,410
2,878.5
1,785.5
1,328.7
2,269.8
1,467.6
862.9
1,043.5
1,050.6
2,291.6
1,560.2
1,540.6
1,913.0
4,290.6
2,854.3
3,022.8
4,358.1
3,145.1
3,025.9
2,749.2
2,360.4
1,890.9
2,221.5
2,191.0
2,298.6
1,295
997
980
1,973
1,513
969
1,044
990
1,870
1,265
1,215
1,446
2,510
1,684
1,908
2,290
1,783
7
1,806
1,605
1,328
1,061
1,205
1,111
1,101
4,209.3
6,154.0
5,491.1
4,517.3
6,933.9
16,802.4
12,344.8
10,998.9
9,006.9
9,401.3
16,175.4
15,283.5
1,805
2,150
1,848
1,632
2,262
3,986
2,991
2,655
2,359
2,434
4,621
4,264
3,948
3,453
3,111
2,949
1,740.9
1,567.8
1,663.7
1,453.3
1,192.7
1,191.3
3,069
2,988
2,976
2,926
2,882
2,824
3,012
2,874
2,680
2,753
3,228
3,935
1,187.7
1,098.4
1,088.2
1,064.4
1,146.2
1,666.9
4,681
4,723
4,892
4,760
4,387
4,328
4,495
4,398
4,282
4,391
4,635
3,350
3,048
**
189
187
200
340
236
208
215
218
304
226
227
270
369
277
331
350
302
7
298
268
232
203
226
201
200
296
295
261
247
363
478
386
375
346
388
488
460
4.3
3.1
3.0
6.2
4.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
5.2
3.5
3.2
3.6
6.4
4.4
4.8
5.6
4.4
4.3
3.8
3.0
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.1
3.4
4.1
3.5
2.7
3.5
6.0
4.6
3.9
3.3
2.9
1,094.9
775.1
789.9
1,736.0
1,373.1
840.4
998.2
962.2
2,026.9
1,350.3
1,380.7
1,733.9
3,512.7
2,279.0
2,726.7
3,422.7
2,675.4
2,774.7
2,522.1
2,166.0
1,771.3
2,092.3
2,031.6
2,127.9
3,848.5
4,957.0
4,471.0
4,007.6
5,974.9
11,754.7
8,974.5
8,357.2
7,717.2
8,612.9
"Monthly data are seasonally adjusted.
1
Includes persons under the State, UCFE (Federal employee, effective January 1955). and RRB (Railroad Retirement Board) programs.
Beginning October 1958, also includes the UCX program (unemployment compensation for ex-servicemen).
'Includes State. UCFE, RR, UCX, UCV (unemployment compensation for veterans, October 1952 January 1960), and SRA
(Servicemen's Readjustment Act, September 1944-September 1951) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit
programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits), SLlA (special unemployment assistance), and Federal supplemental
compensation programs.
9
Covered workers who have completed at least 1 week of unemployment.
4
Annual data are net amounts and monthly data are gross amounts.
* Individuals receiving final payments in benefit year.
6
For total unemployment only.
7
Programs include Puerto Rican sugarcane workers for initial claims and insured unemployment beginning July 1963.
H
Latest data available for all programs combined. Workers covered by State programs account for about 97 percent of wage and
salary earners.
Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration.
204
TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-82
[Thousands of persons; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Year or
month
Total
wage
and
salary
workers
Manufacturing I
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Mining
Transportation
and
public
utilities
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
finance,
insurance,
and
real
estate
Services
3 916
2,672
2,936
6,123
4,755
6,426
1494
1280
1,447
3 425
2,861
3,502
1,311
1,814
2,198
1,587
1,108
1,147
1,683
2,009
2,198
2,194
2,364
2,637
2,668
2,659
2,646
2,839
3,039
2,962
2,817
3,004
3,038
3,274
3,460
3,647
3,829
3,906
4,061
4,166
4,189
4,001
6,750
7,210
7,118
6,982
7,058
7,314
8,376
8,955
9,272
9,264
1,485
1,525
1,509
1,481
1,461
1,481
1,675
1,728
1,800
1,828
3,665
3,905
4,066
4,130
4,145
4,222
4,697
5,025
5,181
5,240
1,340
2,213
2,905
2,928
2,808
2,254
1,892
1,863
1,908
3,206
3,320
3,270
3,175
3,116
3,137
3,341
3,582
3,787
3,948
4,034
4,226
4,248
4,290
4,084
4,141
4,244
4,241
3,976
4,011
9,386
9,742
10,004
10,247
10,235
10,535
10,858
10,886
10,750
11,127
1,888
1,956
2,035
2,111
2,200
2,298
2,389
2,438
2,481
2,549
5,357
5,547
5,699
5,835
5,969
6,240
6,497
6,708
6,765
7,087
1,928
2,302
2,420
2,305
2,188
2,187
2,209
2,217
2,191
2,233
4,098
4,087
4,188
4,340
4,563
4,727
5,069
5,399
5,648
5,850
2,926
2,859
2,948
3,010
3,097
3,232
3,317
3,248
3,350
3,575
4,004
3,903
3,906
3,903
3,951
4,036
4,158
4,268
4,318
4,442
11,391
11,337
11,566
11,778
12,160
12,716
13,245
13,606
14,099
14,705
2,629
2,688
2,754
2,830
2,911
2,977
3,058
3,185
3,337
3,512
7,378
7,620
7,982
8,277
8,660
9,036
9,498
10,045
10,567
11,169
2,270
2,279
2,340
2,358
2,348
2,378
2,564
2,719
2,737
2,758
6,083
6,315
6,550
6,868
7,248
7,696
8,220
8,672
9,102
9,437
3,588
3,704
3,889
4,097
4,020
3,525
3,576
3,851
4,229
4,463
4,515
4,476
4,541
4,656
4,725
4,542
4,582
4,713
4,923
5,136
5,146
5,157
5,057
15,040
15,352
15,949
16,607
16,987
17,060
17,755
18,516
19,542
20,192
20,310
20,551
20,547
3,645
3,772
3,908
4,046
4,148
4,165
4,271
4,467
4,724
4,975
2,731
2,696
2,684
2,663
2,724
2,748
2,733
2,727
2,753
2,773
9,823
10,185
10,649
11,068
11,446
11,937
12,138
12,399
12,919
13,174
5,160
5,301
5,350
11,548
11,797
12,276
12,857
13,441
13,892
14,551
15,303
16,252
17,112
17,890
18,592
19,000
2,866
2,772
2,733
13,375
13,253
13,051
4,175
4,146
4,124
4,101
4,071
4,026
5,139
5,145
5,153
5,163
5,158
5,162
5,168
5,168
5,181
5,162
5,150
5,128
20,380
20,422
20,438
20,508
20,543
20,590
20,620
20,650
20,660
20,654
20,623
20,524
5,252
5,264
5,270
5,286
5,295
5,302
5,311
5,319
5,328
5,325
5,324
5,331
18,352
18,382
18,414
18,480
18,517
18,556
18,615
18,654
18,707
18,773
18,815
18,834
2,798
2,789
2,780
2,774
2,776
2,777
2,775
2,769
2,764
2,757
2,749
2,756
13,400
13,410
13,371
13,354
13,302
13,243
13,189
13,125
13,140
13,160
13,159
13,161
3,966
3,974
3,934
3,938
3,988
3,940
3,927
3,899
3,883
3,856
3,848
3,818
5,125
5,115
5,100
5,094
5,101
5,078
5,044
5,025
5,031
5,007
4,994
4,979
20,630
20,670
20,655
20,584
20,652
20,595
20,615
20,550
20,492
20,441
20,390
20,297
5,326
5,326
5,336
5,335
5,342
5,352
5,359
5,360
5,367
5,357
5,362
5,376
18,831
18,867
18,904
18,929
18,963
18,988
19,042
19,048
19,084
19,074
19,125
19,143
2,741
2,737
2,736
2,730
2,728
2,739
2,737
2,739
2,734
2,723
2,726
2,728
13,123
13,113
13,123
13,122
13,125
13,093
12,898
12,933
13,029
13,019
13,005
13,007
Construction
1929
1933
1939
31,324
23,699
30,603
10 702
7,397
10,278
4,715
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
32,361
36,539
40,106
42,434
41,864
40,374
41,652
43,857
44,866
43,754
10,985
13,192
15,280
17,602
17,328
15,524
14,703
15,545
15,582
14,441
5,363
6,968
8,823
11,084
10,856
9,074
7,742
8,385
8,326
7,489
5.564
5,622
6,225
6,458
6,518
6,472
6,450
6,962
7,159
7,256
6,953
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
45,197
47,819
48,793
50,202
48,990
50,641
52,369
52,853
51,324
53,268
15,241
16,393
16,632
17,549
16,314
16,882
17,243
17,174
15,945
16,675
8,094
9,089
9,349
10,110
9,129
9,541
9,833
9,855
8,829
9,373
7,147
7,304
7,284
7,438
7,185
7,341
7,411
7,321
7,116
7,303
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982*
54,189
53,999
55,549
56,653
58,283
60,765
63,901
65,803
67,897
70,384
9,459
9,070
9,480
9,616
9,816
10,405
11,282
11,439
11,626
11,895
7,337
7,256
7,373
7,380
7,458
7,656
7,930
8,007
8,155
8,272
70,880
71,214
73,675
76,790
78,265
76,945
79,382
82,471
86,697
89,823
90,406
91,105
89,619
16,796
16,326
16,853
16,995
17,274
18,062
19,214
19,447
19,781
20,167
19,367
18,623
19,151
20,154
20,077
18,323
18,997
19,682
20,505
21,040
20,285
20,173
18,849
11,208
10,636
11,049
11,891
11,925
10,688
11,077
11,597
12,274
12,760
12.187
12,117
11,114
8,158
7,987
8,102
8,262
8,152
7,635
7,920
8,086
8,231
8,280
744
854
925
957
992
925
892
836
862
955
994
930
901
929
898
866
791
792
822
828
751
732
712
672
650
635
634
632
627
613
606
619
623
609
628
642
697
752
779
813
851
958
8,098
8,056
7,735
1,027
1,132
1,122
4,346
4,176
3,912
90,909
90,913
91,014
91,099
91,131
91,286
20,171
20,148
20,197
20,275
20,332
20,334
12,120
12,097
12,143
12,201
12,237
12,246
1,102
1,113
1,124
4,315
4,240
4,267
4,281
4,223
4,185
91,396
91,322
91.363
91,224
90,996
90,642
20,379
20,311
20,267
20,097
19,903
19,676
12,266
12,228
12,184
12,059
11,901
11,724
8,051
8,051
8,054
8,074
8,095
8,088
8,113
8,083
8,083
8,038
8,002
7,952
90,460
90,459
90,304
90,083
90,166
89,839
19,517
19,454
19,319
19,169
19,115
18,930
7,895
7,879
7,829
7,794
7,783
7,727
1,201
1,203
1,197
1,182
1,152
1,124
89,535
89,312
89,267
88,860
88,684
88,518
18,813
18,672
18,572
18,325
18,183
18,134
11,622
11,575
11,490
11,375
11,332
11,203
11,133
10,993
10.900
10,666
10,555
10,533
7,680
7,679
7,672
7,659
7,628
7,601
1,100
1,086
1,075
1,058
1,051
1,036
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
fc:
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov*
Dec"
1087
978
985
1,137
1,164
1,180
1,192
1,195
1,202
1,206
1,512
824
1,165
Government
Federal
533
565
905
996
State
and
locaf
2,532
2 601
3,090
Note.—Data in Tables B-37 through B-39 are baser! on reports from employing establishments and relate to full* and part-time wage
and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes
the 12th of the month. Not comparable with labor force data {Tables B-29 through B-35), which include proprietors, self-employed
persons, domestic servants, and unpaid family workers; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of
industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age
population. For description and details of the various establishment data, see "Employment and Earnings."
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
205
TABLE B-38.—Average weekly hours and hourly earnings in selected private nonagrieultural
industries,
1947-82
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross hourly earnings,
current dollars
Average weekly hours
Adjusted hourly earnings, total
private nonagricultura!2
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
Index,
1977^100
Percent change
Year or
month
Total
private
nonagricultural >
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
Total
private
nonagricultural x
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982"....
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
40.3
40.0
39.4
39.8
39.9
39.9
39.6
39.1
39.6
39.3
38.8
38.5
39.0
38.6
38.6
38.7
38.8
38.7
38.8
38.6
38.0
37.8
37.7
37.1
36.9
37.0
36.9
36.5
36.1
36.1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2
34.8
40.4
40.0
39.1
40.5
40.6
40.7
40.5
39.6
40.7
40.4
39.8
39.2
40.3
39.7
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.7
41.2
41.4
40.6
40.7
40.6
39.8
39.9
40.5
40.7
40.0
39.5
40.1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
39.8
38.9
38.2
38.1
37.7
37.4
38.1
38.9
37.9
37.2
37.1
37.5
37.0
36.8
37.0
36.7
36.9
37.0
37.3
37.2
37.4
37.6
37.7
37.3
37.9
37.3
37.2
36.5
36.8
36.6
36.4
36.8
36.5
36.8
37.0
37.0
36.9
36.7
40.5
40.4
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.0
39.5
39.5
39.4
39.1
38.7
38.6
38.8
38.6
38.3
38.2
38.1
37.9
37.7
37.1
36.6
36.1
35.7
35.3
35.1
34.9
34.6
34.2
33.9
33.7
33.3
32.9
32.6
32.2
32.2
31.9
$1,131
1.225
1.275
1.335
1.45
1.52
1.61
1.65
1.71
1.80
1.89
1.95
2.02
2.09
2.14
2.22
2.28
2.36
2.46
2.56
2.68
2.85
3.04
3.23
3.45
3.70
3.94
4.24
4.53
4.86
5.25
5.69
6.16
6.66
7.25
7.67
$1,216
1.327
1.376
$1,540
1.712
1.792
$0,940
1.010
1.060
21.6
23.4
24.5
58.5
58.9
62.3
8.3
4.7
1.439
1.56
1.64
1.74
1.78
1.863
2.02
2.13
2.28
2.38
1.100
1.18
1.23
1.30
1.35
64.0
63.6
65.5
68.7
70.5
3.7
7.5
5.1
5.6
3.3
1.85
1.95
2.04
2.10
2.19
2.45
2.57
2.71
2.82
2.93
1.40
1.47
1.54
1.60
1.66
25.4
27.3
28.7
30.3
31.3
32.4
34.0
35.7
37.2
38.5
73.3
75.9
76.9
78.0
80.0
3.5
4.9
5.0
4.2
3.5
2.26
2.32
2.39
2.45
2.53
3.07
3.20
3.31
3.41
3.55
1.71
1.76
1.83
1.89
1.97
39.8
41.0
42.4
43.6
44.8
81.4
83.0
85.0
86.3
87.5
3.4
3.0
3.4
2.8
2.8
2.61
2.71
2.82
3.01
3.19
3.70
3.89
4.11
4.41
4.79
2.04
2.14
2.25
2.41
2.56
46.4
48.4
50.8
53.9
57.5
89.0
90.3
92.2
94.0
95.0
3.6
4.3
5.0
6.1
6.7
3.35
3.57
3.82
4.09
4.42
5.24
5.69
6.06
6.41
6.81
2.72
2.88
3.05
3.23
3.48
61.3
65.7
69.8
74.1
80.0
95.7
98.3
101.2
101.1
98.3
6.6
7.2
6.2
6.2
8.0
4.83
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.31
7.71
8.10
8.66
9.27
3.73
3.97
4.28
4.67
5.06
86.7
92.9
100.0
108.1
116.8
97.6
99.0
100.0
100.5
97.4
8.4
7.2
7.6
8.1
8.0
7.27
7.99
8.50
9.94
10.80
11.55
5.48
5.93
6.22
127.3
138.9
148.4
93.5
92.6
93.3
9.0
9.1
6.8
35.6
35.2
35.3
35.4
35.4
35.2
35.3
35.2
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.0
40.4
39.7
39.9
40.1
40.2
40.1
40.0
39.9
39.4
39.5
39.3
39.1
38.6
36.3
37.2
37.2
37.0
36.5
37.0
36.8
35.3
36.8
37.4
37.0
32.3
32.2
32.2
32.3
32.2
32.1
32.2
32.2
32.1
32.0
32.1
32.0
7.00
7.05
7.10
7.14
7.19
7.23
7.27
7.34
7.37
7.40
7.45
7.46
7.69
7.75
7.81
7.90
7.94
7.99
8.03
8.09
8.14
8.16
8.20
8.20
10.40
10.47
10.53
10.57
10.64
10.73
10.82
10.90
10.95
11.06
11.14
11.22
5.72
5.78
5.82
5.85
5.89
5.91
5.94
5.98
6.03
6.03
6.06
6.08
133.7
134.8
135.7
136.6
137.6
138.4
139.1
140.5
141.4
142.0
143.0
143.5
92.8
92.7
92.7
93.0
93.0
92.9
92.2
92.5
92.1
92.1
92.3
92.3
9.9
9.9
9.4
9.5
9.4
8.9
3.8
9.3
9.3
8.6
8.4
8.2
34.4
35.0
34.9
34.9
35.0
34.9
34.9
34.8
34.8
34.7
34.7
34.6
37.6
39.4
39.0
39.0
39.1
39.2
39.2
39.0
38.8
38.8
38.9
38.9
35.2
37.1
36.9
36.9
37.5
36.8
37.2
37.0
36.4
36.3
36.4
36.5
31.7
32.0
31.9
31.8
32.0
31.9
31.9
31.9
32.1
31.9
31.8
31.8
7.52
7.53
7.54
7.59
7.65
7.67
7.71
7.74
7.72
7.77
7.78
7.83
8.38
8.34
8.37
8.44
8.48
8.52
11.52
11.34
11.39
11.43
11.54
11.51
6.09
6.10
6.12
6.16
6.20
6.22
144.9
145.0
145.4
146.3
147.7
148.1
92.9
92.8
93.3
93.7
93.7
93.1
8.3
7.5
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.1
8.56
8.57
8.56
8.56
8.61
8.62
11.56
11.58
11.56
11.71
11.60
11.82
6.23
6.26
6.25
6.32
6.34
6.35
148.9
149.9
150.1
150.8
151.1
151.9
93.0
93.2
93.2
93.2
93.3
94.0
7.1
6.6
6.1
6.2
5.6
5.9
tz.
June....
July
Aug
Nov."!.'.'
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
May'."."
June....
July
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov...
Dec ".
..
ManufacConturing struction
1
Also includes other private industry groups shown in Table B-37.
2
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and for interindustry
3
from a year
earlier4
Current 1977 3 Current
dollars dollars dollars
employment shifts.
Current-dollar earnings index divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers on a 1977=100
base.
4
Monthly data are computed from indexes to two decimal places and are based on data not seasonally adjusted.
Note.—See Note, Table B-37.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
206
TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1947-82
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross weekly earnings
Total private
nonagricultural *
Manufacturing
(current
dollars)
Construction
(current
dollars)
119.83
127 31
136.90
145 39
154.76
163 53
175 45
189.00
203 70
219.91
23510
255.20
266.92
$123 52
123.43
127.84
133.83
134.87
138 47
144.58
145.32
153.21
157.90
158.04
157.40
163.78
164.97
167.21
172.16
175.17
178.38
183.21
184.37
184.83
187.68
189.44
186.94
190 58
198.41
198.35
190.12
184.16
186 85
189.00
189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13
167.87
$4913
53 08
53.80
58.28
63.34
66 75
70.47
70.49
75 30
78.78
8119
82.32
88.26
89 72
92.34
96.56
99.23
102.97
107.53
112.19
114.49
122.51
129.51
133.33
142 44
154.71
166 46
176.80
190 79
209 32
228.90
249 27
269.34
288 62
318.00
330.65
$58 83
6523
67.56
69.68
76.96
8286
86.41
88.54
90.90
96.38
100 27
103.78
108.41
112 67
118.08
122.47
127.19
132.06
138.38
146.26
154.95
164.49
181.54
195.45
21167
221.19
235 89
249.25
266.08
283 73
295.65
318.69
342.99
367 78
398.52
423.89
$38 07
40 80
42.93
44.55
47.79
49 20
51.35
53.33
5516
57.48
59 60
61.76
64.41
66 01
67.41
69.91
7201
74.66
76 91
79.39
82.35
87.00
91.39
96.02
10109
106.45
11176
119.02
126 45
133 79
142.52
153 64
164.96
176 46
190.95
198.42
249 20
248.16
25063
252 76
254.53
254.50
25663
258 37
257.95
259.74
261.50
261.10
Year or month
172.94
170.56
171.31
17218
171.98
170.92
170.18
170 09
168.05
168.44
168.82
167.91
310 68
307.68
311.62
316 79
319.19
320.40
32120
322 79
320.72
322.32
322.26
320.62
401.44
380.06
391.72
393 20
393.68
391.65
400.34
401 12
386.54
407.01
416.64
415.14
184 76
186.12
187.40
188 96
189.66
189.71
191.27
192 56
193.56
192.96
194.53
194.56
258 69
263 55
263.15
264.89
267.75
267.68
269 08
269 35
268.66
269.62
269.97
270.92
165.93
168 62
168.90
169.69
169.89
168.14
167.97
167.61
166.87
166.53
166.75
167.75
315 09
328 60
326.43
329.16
331.57
333.98
335.55
334.23
332.13
332.13
334.93
335.32
405.50
420.71
420.29
421.77
432.75
423.57
430.03
428.46
420.78
425.07
422.24
431.43
193.05
195.20
195.23
195.89
198.40
198.42
198.74
199.69
200.63
201.61
201.61
201.93
3.7
6.2
4.8
4.5
5.2
4.9
4.7
4.3
4.0
3.5
3.2
3.8
Current
dollars
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955.
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973.
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 p
1981:
$45 58
49 00
50.24
53.13
57.86
60 65
63.76
64.52
67 72
70.74
73 33
75.08
78.78
8067
82.60
85.91
88 46
91.33
95 45
98.82
101.84
107.73
114.61
..
.
Jan
Fb
e
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June;.
..
..
'. Z
II..
July
Aug
Sept
oct
Nov.
Dec
Percent change from
a year earlier, total
private
nonagricultural3
Wholesale
and retail
trade
(current
dollars)
:
1977
dollars2
1
Also includes other private industry groups shown in Table B-37.
2
Earnings in current dollars divided by the consumer price index on a 1977=100 base.
3
Based on data not seasonally adjusted.
Note.-See Note, Table B-37.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
207
Current
dollars
75
2.5
5.8
8.9
48
5.1
1.2
50
4.5
37
2.4
4.9
24
1977
dollars
01
3.6
4.7
.8
27
4.4
.5
54
3.1
1
__ £,
U
7
2.4
14
4.0
30
3.2
45
3.5
3.1
5.8
6.4
4.6
62
3.0
17
1.8
27
.6
.2
1.5
.9
7.5
6.2
6.4
5.7
73
-1.3
19
4.1
- 0
-4.1
=31
15
7.7
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
4.6
1.2
.2
-3.1
= 58
-1.5
-1.3
9.5
9.1
9.2
-2.0
-2.1
-1.2
- 4
9.2
10.0
-.3
-.7
-1.1
-2.2
-2.0
-1.8
-2.4
9.5
9.9
9.6
8.4
7.9
7.3
6.1
.1
=4.1
-1.1
-1.6
-1.7
-1.2
-1.9
-1.4
-1.4
-.9
-1.4
-1.2
-.1
TABLE B-40.—Productivity and related data, business sector, 1947-82
[1977=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Year or
quarter
Output per hour
of all persons
Hours of 2all
persons
Output1
Compensation per Real compensation
per hour 4
hour 3
Unit labor cost
Implicit price
deflator*
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
ness
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
ness
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
35.0
37.2
36.5
34.0
36.0
35.3
80.2
80.7
78.1
68.1
69.2
66.6
17.0
18.4
18.7
18.5
20.1
20.6
46.1
46.4
47.6
50.1
50.5
52.5
38.9
40.0
40.1
37.0
38.6
38.9
38.1
40.8
40.3
36.6
39.1
39.4
56.3
57.2
58.6
59.5
60.4
39.8
42.1
43.5
45.4
44.6
38.6
41.1
42.5
44.3
43.4
78.9
81.3
81.4
82.2
79.5
68.7
71.9
72.6
74.5
71.9
20.0
22.0
23.4
24.9
25.7
21.8
23.8
25.1
26.5
27.3
50.5
51.3
53.4
56.4
58.0
55.0
55.4
57.2
59.9
61.6
39.7
42.5
43.8
45.1
45.9
38.8
41.5
42.8
44.4
45.2
41.0
44.0
44.5
44.9
45.3
40.1
42.8
43.5
44.4
45.0
58.3
58.9
60,4
62.3
64.3
62.8
62.9
64.0
65.5
67.7
48.1
49.3
49.8
49.0
52.6
47.0
48.3
48.9
48.0
51.8
82.5
83.7
82.5
78.8
81.9
74.9
76.8
76.4
73.2
76.5
26.4
28.1
29.9
31.2
32.6
28.3
30.0
31.7
32.9
34.2
59.6
62.6
64.4
65.5
67.7
64.0
66.8
68.2
68.9
71.1
45.2
47.7
49.5
50.2
50.7
45.0
47.6
49.5
50.2
50.5
46.0
47.5
49.2
49.8
50.8
46.0
47.6
49.3
49.7
50.9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
65.2
67.3
69.9
72.5
75.6
68.3
70.3
72.8
75.1
78.1
53.5
54.4
57.4
59.9
63.5
52.5
53.5
56.6
59.1
62.8
82.0
80.8
82.1
82.6
83.9
77.0
76.1
77.8
78.7
80.5
33.9
35.2
36.8
38.2
40.2
35.7
36.8
38.3
39.6
41.4
69.5
71.3
73.7
75.5
78.4
73.0
74.6
76.7
78.4
80.9
52.0
52.3
52.7
52.6
53.1
52.2
52.4
52.6
52.7
53.0
51.6
51.8
52.6
53.2
53.7
51.6
51.9
52.7
53.3
53.9
1965
1966
1967
1968.
1969
78.3
80.7
82.5
85.3
85.5
80.5
82.5
84.0
86.8
86.5
67.8
71.5
73.1
76.8
79.0
67.2
71.2
72.7
76.6
78.8
86.6
88.6
88.6
90.1
92.5
83.5
86.3
86.5
88.2
91.1
41.7
44.6
47.0
50.7
54.2
42.8
45.4
47.9
51.5
54.8
80.1
83.3
85.3
88.3
89.6
82.2
84.7
86.9
89.6
90.6
53.3
55.3
56.9
59.4
63.4
53.2
55.0
57.0
59.3
63.4
54.7
56.4
57.9
60.2
63.2
54.8
56.3
58.1
60.4
63.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
86.2
89.2
92.4
94.7
92.5
86.8
89.7
93.0
95.3
92.9
78.4
80.7
86.1
91.8
78.0
80.3
85.8
91.7
89.8
91.0
90.5
93.2
96.8
97.3
89.8
89.5
92.3
96.2
96.7
58.2
62.0
66.1
71.3
78.0
58.7
62.5
66.7
71.7
78.5
90.8
92.8
95.7
97.3
95.9
91.5
93.5
96.6
97.8
96.4
67.5
69.5
71.5
75.3
84.4
67.6
69.7
71.7
75.3
84.5
66.0
69.0
71.3
75.3
82.4
66.3
69.3
71.3
74.0
81.6
1975
1976.
1977
1978
1979
94.5
97.6
100.0
100.6
99.6
94.7
97.8
100.0
100.6
99.3
88.2
93.8
100.0
105.5
107.8
87.8
93.7
100.0
105.7
108.0
93.3
96.0
100.0
104.9
108.2
92.7
95.8
100.0
105.0
108.7
85.5
92.9
100.0
108.6
119.1
86.0
93.0
100.0
108.6
118.8
96.3
98.9
100.0
100.9
99.4
96.8
99.0
100.0
100.9
99.2
90.5
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5
90.8
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.6
90.5
94.7
100.0
107.5
117.2
90.0
94.6
100.0
107.1
116.5
1980
1981
1982
98.9
100.7
101.0
98.5
99.9
100.0
106.2
108.9
106.4
106.3
108.6
105.9
107.4
108.2
105.3
108.0
108.7
105.9
131.4
144.1
154.6
130.9
143.6
154.0
96.7
96.0
97.0
96.3
95.7
96.7
132.9
143.1
153.0
133.0
143.8
153.9
128.3
140.4
148.2
128.3
140.8
149.0
1980:
I
I
I
Il
l
IV
99.3
98.2
38.9
99.3
98.7
97.6
98.4
9C.2
107.9
104.7
105.3
107.0
107.9
104.6
105.3
107.3
108.7
106.6
106.5
107.7
109.3
107.2
107.0
108.2
126.7
130.0
133.1
136.1
126.2
129.3
132.6
135.7
97.0
96.4
96.9
96.2
96.6
96.0
96.5
95.9
127.6
132.3
134.7
137.0
127.8
132.5
134.7
136.8
123.7
126.9
129.9
132.8
123.6
127.2
129.9
132.7
100.7
100.7
101.0
100.2
100.4
100.0
100.0
99.1
109.1
109.1
109.6
107.8
109.2
109.0
109.1
107.1
108.3
108.3
108.5
107.5
108.8
109.0
109.1
108.1
140.0
142.5
145.6
148.2
139.5
142.0
145.1
147.7
96.2
96.4
95.7
95.6
96.0
96.0
95.4
95.3
139.0
141.5
144.2
147.9
139.0
141.9
145.1
149.0
136.5
138.8
141.9
144.6
136.5
138.9
142.3
145.5
100.0
100.3
101.2
102,2
99.2
99.4
100.3
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.0
106.1
106.3
106.3
106.1
105.4
106.8
106.7
106.0
150.9
153.4
155.7
150.4
152.7
155.1
96.3
96.6
96.4
146.0
147.5
149.1
106.0
105.3
103.7
104.3
158.0
157.4
150.9
152.9
153.8
154.5
151.6
153.5
154.7
100.9
96.5
97.1
96.8
97.5
155.9
150.4
146.6
148.1
149.8
151.7
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
1947.
1948
1949
43.7
46.0
46.7
49.9
52.0
53.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
50.4
51.8
53.5
55.2
56.1
1955
1956.
1957
1958
1959
ness
sector
ness
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
1981:
II.'.""
Ill
IV
1982:
I
1
2
97.2
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on
establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an
estimate of wages, salaries, ana supplemental payments for the self-employed.
4
Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index.
8
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
208
TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivity and related data, business sector, 1948-82
[Percent change from preceding period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Output per hour
o1 all persons
Year
sector
Konfarm
business
sector
Hours of all
Output 1
sector
Nonfarm
lusirtess
sector
sector
Compensation per
Nonfarm
business
sector
sector
Nofifarm
business
sector
Real compensation
per hour*
sector
Unit labor cost
Nonfarm
business
Implicit price
deflator^
Nonfarm
Nonfarm
business Business business
sector
sector
sector
1948
1949
5.3
1.5
4.3
2.0
6.1
-1.9
6.0
-1.9
0.7
-3.3
1.6
-3.8
8.5
1.6
8.6
2.9
0.7
2.6
0.8
3.9
3.0
.1
4.1
.9
7.0
-1.0
6.8
.9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
7.9
2.8
3.2
3.2
1.6
6.0
1.7
2.3
1.7
1.4
9.1
5.8
3.3
4.3
-1.8
9.4
6.5
3.4
4.2
-2.0
1.1
2.9
.1
1.0
-3.3
3.1
4.6
1.0
2.5
-3.4
7.1
9.8
6.4
6.4
3.2
5.8
8.8
5.5
5.6
3.2
6.0
1.7
4.1
5.7
2.8
4.8
.7
3.2
4.8
2.7
-.8
6.9
3.0
3.1
1.6
-.2
6.9
3.1
3.9
1.7
1.6
7.4
1.1
.9
1.0
1.7
6.6
1.8
2.0
1.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
4.0
1.0
2.5
3.1
3.2
3.9
.3
1.7
2.4
3.4
7.9
2.6
1.0
-1.6
7.3
8.2
2.8
1.2
-1.9
7.9
3.8
1.5
-1.5
-4.5
3.9
4.1
2.5
-.5
-4.2
4.4
2.5
6.5
6.5
4.4
4.3
3.6
6.0
5.7
3.8
4.0
2.8
4.9
2.9
1.6
3.5
3.9
4.4
2.2
1.0
3.2
1.4
5.5
3.9
1.3
1.0
-.3
5.7
3.9
1.4
.6
1.6
3.3
3.5
1.3
2.0
2.2
3.5
3.6
.9
2.3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1.5
3.3
3.8
3.7
4.3
.8
2.9
3.6
3.2
3.9
1.6
1.7
5.5
4.3
6.0
1.5
1.8
5.8
4.4
6.4
.2
-1.5
1.6
.6
1.6
.6
-1.1
2.2
1.1
2.4
4.2
3.8
4.6
3.7
5.2
4.3
3.2
4.0
3.5
4.5
2.6
2.7
3.4
2.5
3.8
2.7
2.1
2.8
2.2
3.2
2.7
.5
.7
.0
3.5
.3
.4
.2
1.4
.6
1.5
1.1
1.0
1.5
.6
1.5
1.2
1.2
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
3.5
3.1
2.2
3.3
.2
3.1
2.5
1.9
3.3
-.3
6.8
5.5
2.2
5.1
2.9
6.9
5.9
2.1
5.3
2.9
3.2
2.3
.0
1.7
2.6
3.7
3.4
.3
2.0
3.2
3.9
7.0
5.3
7.8
7.0
3.4
6.0
5.5
7.5
6.5
2.2
4.0
2.4
3.5
1.5
1.7
3.0
2.6
3.2
1.1
.3
3.8
3.0
4.4
6.7
.3
3.5
3.5
4.1
6.8
1.9
3.0
2.7
4.0
4.9
1.6
2.8
3.2
4.0
4.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
.8
3.6
3.5
2.6
-2.4
.3
3.3
3.7
2.4
-2.5
-.8
3.0
6.6
6.6
-2.0
-1.0
2.9
6.9
6.8
-2.1
-1.6
-.5
3.0
3.9
.4
-1.3
-.4
3.1
4.3
.5
7.3
6.6
6.5
8.0
9.4
7.0
6.6
6.7
7.6
9.4
1.3
2.2
3.1
1.6
-1.4
1.0
2.2
3.3
1.3
-1.4
6.4
2.9
2.9
5.3
12,1
6.6
3.2
2.9
5.0
12.2
4.5
4.4
3.4
5.5
9.5
4.8
4.5
3.0
3.8
10.2
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
2.2
3.3
2.4
.6
-.9
2.0
3.2
2.2
.6
-1.3
-2.0
6.4
6.6
5.5
2.3
-2.2
6.7
6.7
5.7
2.2
-4.1
3.0
4.1
4.9
3.2
-4.1
3.4
4.4
5.0
3.5
9.6
8.6
7.7
8.6
9.7
9.6
8.1
7.5
8.6
9.3
.5
2.6
1.2
.9
=1.4
.4
2.2
1.0
.9
-1.7
7.3
5.1
5.1
8.0
10.7
7.5
4.7
5.2
8.0
10.7
9.8
4.7
5.6
7.5
9.0
10.3
5.0
5.7
7.1
8.8
1980
1981
1982 P
-.7
1.8
.4
-.9
1.4
.2
-1.5
2.5
-2.3
-1.5
2.2
-2.5
-.7
.7
-2.6
-.7
.7
-2.6
10.4
9.6
7.3
10.2
9.7
7.3
-2.8
— 7
1.1
-2.9
-.7
1.1
11.2
7.7
6.9
11.2
8.1
7.1
9.4
9.5
5.5
10.2
9.7
5.9
.6
-4.3
2.6
2.0
-.4
-4.6
3.4
3.1
-.2
-11.4 -11.6
2.1
2.7
6.8
7.8
-.4
-7.4
—5
4.7
.2
-7.4
-.7
4.6
12.5
10.7
10.1
9.4
11.9
10.2
10.4
9.8
-3.9
-2.6
2.5
-2.8
11.8
15.7
7.3
7.2
12.4
15.5
6.8
6.5
11.2
10.8
10.0
9.3
13.2
12.2
8.6
8.9
5.6
.0
1.1
-2.9
4.9
-1.3
-.3
-3.5
7.9
-.1
1.9
-6.4
7.2
-.8
.3
-7.1
2.1
-.1
11.7
7.5
9.0
7.4
11.8
7.1
9.0
7.3
.2
.5
-2.6
-.4
.4
.1
-2.6
-.5
5.7
7.5
7.8
10.6
6.6
-3.6
2.2
.5
.6
-3.7
9.3
11.2
11.6
6.6
9.3
8.0
12.1
7.1
10.2
9.2
-1.0
1.4
3.6
4.1
.6
.8
3.4
2.7
-5.5
.6
1.1
-2.5
-4.2
.6
.7
-3.8
-4.5
-.8
-2.4
-6.4
-4.7
-.1
-2.7
-6.3
7.3
6.9
6.1
6.0
7.7
6.1
6.6
6.0
3.9
2.2
-1.4
3.3
4.3
1.4
-.9
3.3
8.4
5.5
2.4
1.8
7.1
5.2
3.1
3.2
3.8
4.3
4.4
3.5
3.3
4.0
4.9
5.1
1980:
I
in"'."'.'.";;;;
iV
1981:
i
ti
nt
iv
1982:
II
Ill
IV
1
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
2
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on
establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an
estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.
* Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index.
5
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
Note.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are based on original data and therefore may differ slightly
from percent changes based on indexes in Table B-40.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
209
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
TABLE B-42.—Industrial production indexes, major industry divisions, 1929-82
[1967-100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Manufacturing
Total
industrial
production
Total
Durable
Nondurable
100.00
87.95
51.98
35.97
6.36
5.69
21.6
13.7
21.7
22.8
14.0
21.5
22 5
9.1
17.7
23 2
19.9
26.1
43.1
30.6
42.1
74
6.7
10.7
25.0
31.6
36.3
44.0
47.4
40.7
35.0
39.4
41.1
38.8
25.4
32.4
37.8
47.0
50.9
42.6
35.3
39.4
40.9
38.7
23 5
31.4
399
54.2
59.9
45.2
31.6
37.7
39.3
35.7
27 5
33.3
34 6
37.1
38.6
38.5
39.7
41.3
42.7
42.0
46.8
49.7
51.3
52.5
56.2
55.1
54.2
61.3
64.4
57.1
11.8
13.3
14.9
16.5
17.5
17.8
18.6
20.1
22.4
23.9
44.9
48.7
50.6
54.8
51.9
58.5
61.1
61.9
57.9
64.8
45.0
48.6
50.6
55.2
51.5
58.2
60.5
61.2
57.0
64.2
43.5
48.9
51.9
587
51.8
59.2
61.1
61.6
53.9
61.9
46.7
48.3
49.2
51,2
51.6
57.2
60.1
61.1
61.6
67.7
63.8
70 0
69.4
712
69.9
77.9
82.0
82.1
75.3
78.7
27.2
310
33.7
36 5
39.3
43.9
48.2
51.5
53.9
59.3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
66 2
66.7
72.2
76.5
81.7
89.8
97.8
100.0
106.3
111.1
65.4
65.6
71.5
75.8
81.0
89.7
97.9
100.0
106.4
111.0
62 9
61.8
686
73.1
78 3
89.0
989
100.0
106.5
110.6
69.3
71.5
75.8
80.0
85.2
90.9
96.7
100.0
106.2
111.5
80.3
80.8
83.1
86.4
89.9
93.2
98.2
100.0
104.2
108.3
63.4
67.0
72.0
77.0
83.6
88.7
95.5
100.0
108.4
117.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
107.8
109 6
119.7
129 8
129.3
117 8
130.5
138 2
146.1
152.5
112.2
109 8
113.1
114.7
115,3
112.8
114.2
118.2
124.0
125.5
124.5
130 5
139.4
145.4
143.7
146.0
151.7
156.5
161.4
166.0
147.0
151.0
138.6
102.3
102 4
113.7
1271
125.7
109 3
122.3
130 0
139.7
146.4
136.7
140.5
124.7
112.3
1166
126.5
133.8
134.6
126.4
141.8
150.5
156.9
164.0
1980
1981
1982 *
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mr
a
Apr
May
June....
July
Am;
Sept"
106.4
108 2
118.9
129.8
129.4
1163
130.3
138.4
146.8
153.6
146.7
150.4
137.6
161.2
164.8
156.1
132.7
142.2
126.1
168.3
169.1
169.0
1514
151.8
1521
151.9
152.7
152.9
1511
151.2
1516
152.0
152.8
152.4
1410
140.8
1421
142.5
143.5
143.2
165 6
166.2
165 3
165.9
166.4
165.8
140 4
143.1
143 2
135.2
135.4
141.7
167 6
166.4
167 8
167.6
170,7
172.7
153.9
153 6
1516
149.1
146.3
143.4
153.2
153.2
1511
148.0
145.0
142.0
143 6
143 4
140 9
137.8
134.4
131.3
167.1
167 3
1659
162.8
160.3
157.4
146.5
146 0
1450
145.3
143.3
142.6
173.1
171.9
167 8
168.1
168.9
168.2
140.7
142.9
141.7
140.2
139.2
138.7
138.5
140.9
140.1
138.7
137.9
137.7
127.1
129.3
128.2
126 7
1261
125.5
155.1
157.8
157.3
156.1
155 0
155.3
144.5
142.4
138.1
134.1
128.9
123.5
171.8
170.4
170.0
171.0
170.9
169.4
138 8
138.4
137.3
135.8
134.8
134.7
1381
138.0
137.1
135.0
134.0
133.9
125 9
124.9
123.5
120.5
119.3
119.3
155 7
156.9
156.7
156.0
155.2
155.1
120.1
116.9
114.7
116.4
115.9
118.0
167 7
168.5
167.5
167.8
167.1
165.5
Year or month
1967 proportion
1929
1933
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
,„„
,
,
mZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
My
a
June
July
Aug
sept
Oct
Nov"
Dec "
..
:
::.:
::: :::::..
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
210
N
Min
ing
iitili
ties
TABLE B-43-—Industrial production indexes, market groupings, 1947-82
[1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Final products
Year or month
Total
industrial
production
Consumer goods
Total
Total
Total
Business
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
10.47
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 P
1981:
Jan
Fb
e
Ar
p
My
a
Mar
June
'•
"
1982:
Jan
Fb
e
Mar
Apr
..:..
::..
July
Aug
Sept
oc?.:::::::::::::::::::::::
Nov.
47.82
27.68
2.83
5.06
20.14
12.63
12.89
39.29
20.35
38.6
40.0
38.8
43.7
47 2
50.7
541
51.3
55.4
58.6
60.3
57.6
63.2
65 3
65.8
714
75.5
79.7
87 6
95.9
1000
106.2
109.6
1053
106.3
115.7
124 4
125.1
118.2
127.6
135 9
142.2
147.2
145 3
149.5
141.3
42.4
43.7
43.4
45.3
47.4
47.0
59.1
523
47.1
59 5
55.4
73.6
60.6
63.5
50.5
63.3
72 5
66.1
801
87.7
91.9
113 3
112.8
1000
119.4
118.1
98.8
124.4
141.4
153 0
132.8
125.8
155.7
175 6
179.9
167.7
132 8
137.9
129.6
37.5
39.1
36.2
30.6
32.2
28.7
38.0
39.5
34.5
41.9
44.3
42.0
39.5
41.2
37.6
38.3
39.4
35.3
49.9
43.0
43.0
48.6
44.9
31.1
43 3
51.9
563
49.3
37.0
45.2
51.2
53.3
46.8
48.8
513
50.9
54 5
54.3
45.0
49 8
50.5
561
51.8
44.4
50 5
51.6
60 3
52.0
45.9
53.0
55.7
54.5
51.4
59.0
50.4
55.3
57.5
51.5
56.5
50.8
58.8
61.1
51.5
57.9
61.7
64.4
64.4
63.0
69.5
61.3
62.8
62.8
56.5
65.2
63.7
63 9
63.8
53 7
64.0
52.5
54 9
54.7
54.4
62.1
59.4
61.3
66.5
71.8
78.4
581
57.3
63 7
67.5
71.4
59.4
57.7
62.7
65.8
73.7
70 0
71.4
75 7
79.9
85.2
66.1
66.2
721
76.7
82.9
64 8
63.3
704
81.9
63 2
65.8
713
75.6
82.2
88.9
97.9
100.0
106.4
113.2
80 7
94.0
100 0
106.5
109.3
84.4
97.7
100.0
105.5
112.5
90.6
96.2
100.0
106.3
112.9
92.4
100.7
100.0
106.5
112.5
93 8
103.3
100 0
106 2
112.1
90 3
97.5
1000
108.8
115.7
110.2
115.6
129.5
142.5
136.8
1001
94.7
103.8
114 5
120.0
107.0
104.1
118.0
134.2
142.4
112.9
116.7
126.5
137.2
135.3
109.2
111.3
122.3
133.9
132.4
103 8
104.9
117 7
134 6
132.7
120.2
132.9
142 2
142.6
118.8
134.1
141.9
147.7
149.2
110.2
114.6
123 0
132.8
142.2
128.2
135.4
147.8
160.3
171.3
123.1
137.2
145.1
154.1
160.5
115.5
131.7
1386
148.3
156.4
109.1
128.0
1361
149.0
157.8
126.6
147.8
155.6
165.6
175.9
138 9
142.0
129.3
145 2
151.8
139.4
173 2
181.1
157.3
1519
154.4
143.4
147 6
151.6
133.8
143 0
149.1
125.3
1715
174.6
157.3
147 8
148 2
152.1
151.9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Deep
Home
goods
Intermediate
products
151.4
1518
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
STay
Equipment •
39.4
41.1
38.8
44.9
48.7
50.6
54.8
51.9
58.5
61.1
61.9
57.9
64.8
66 2
66.7
72 2
76.5
81.7
89.8
97.8
1000
106.3
111.1
107 8
109.6
119.7
129 8
129.3
117.8
130.5
138 2
146.1
152.5
147 0
151.0
138.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
June
Materials3
100.00
1967 proportion
1947
1948
1949
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Automotive
products
1
149.0
149.9
1513
151.4
146 9
147 8
148.3
148.9
150.7
150.3
139.2
142.9
1518
153.1
145.6
145 2
146.1
145.0
144.8
145.0
1491
148 7
150.0
151.4
1521
153.0
177.7
177.5
179.3
181.0
182.0
183.6
157.5
157 7
157.1
156.3
156.1
154.9
153 8
154 3
154.4
152.9
153.4
154.0
1500
150 6
152.2
151.8
152.8
152.4
180.2
179.9
177.5
179.3
179.0
176.9
152.1
151.5
150.0
1489
147.2
146.3
150.7
149.6
147.8
146.5
144.0
142.0
147.6
137.6
139.1
132 8
121.7
119.2
145.8
145.3
141.1
138.2
134.1
125.4
154.1
154.0
152.9
1521
151.5
152.1
184.8
184.4
182.7
180.5
179.0
179.0
156.2
156.8
154.6
151.4
148.7
145.9
155.3
155.2
152.5
148.5
144.6
139.0
153.6
154.3
150.4
145.6
141.0
134.0
176.5
175.4
175.5
170.6
164.7
158.3
142 8
1441
143.3
142.6
142.2
142.1
139.6
141.8
141.5
142.1
143.6
144.8
109 2
117 5
125.0
129.9
138.9
143.0
126.3
130.6
129.9
131.1
129.1
129.9
147.2
147.3
145.9
143.4
140.4
138.4
172.2
171.6
169.0
164.9
159.9
156.7
143.4
146.3
145.2
143.7
142.6
141.9
137.2
140.4
138.5
136.2
134.3
133.5
129.7
132.4
130.7
128.1
126.6
126.6
156.8
164.2
162.0
160.3
156.6
153.5
142.5
1412
140 0
138.6
137.7
138.1
145.8
144.1
143.4
142.2
141.1
141.4
149J
135.5
135 5
124.0
121.4
129.8
130.4
1314
1289
128.6
126.9
125.9
138.0
137.3
135.2
133.5
133.0
133.6
154.9
153.9
150.5
146.4
144.6
144.1
142.8
144.7
143.7
142.4
141.9
141.0
133.0
132.8
132.0
130.3
128.9
128.4
126.0
125.1
123.0
119.3
118.0
117.3
152.3
154.5
158.5
157.7
155.5
155.5
152 7
152.9
153.9
153.6
151.6
149 1
146.3
143.4
140 7
142 9
141.7
140.2
139.2
138.7
138.8
138 4
137 3
135.8
134.8
134.7
49.6
49.1
50.2
53.2
52.9
59.0
61.2
62.6
62.1
68.1
70 7
72.2
771
81.3
85.9
92.6
97.3
100.0
105.9
109.8
109.0
114.7
124.4
131.5
128.9
124.0
137.1
145 3
149.1
150.8
145 4
147.9
142.6
130 4
133 9
1
Also includes clothing and consumer staples, not shown separately.
Also includes defense and space equipment, not shown separately.
Also includes energy materials, not shown separately.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
2
3
211
751
Z'.'Z
1154
TABLE B-44.—Industrial production indexes, selected manufactures, 1947-82
[1967; -100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
Year or month
Primary
metals
Total
1967 proportion
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 p.
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mr
a
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct.
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Auc
Sept
Oct..;;:::::
Nov " ....
Dec*
6.57
63.3
65.8
55.4
69.7
75 8
69.2
78 5
63.5
82.5
82.0
78 5
62.3
72.7
72 4
71.1
76 3
82.3
92.8
1021
108.4
1000
104.3
113.8
106.6
100.2
112.1
126.7
123.1
96.4
109.7
111 1
119.9
121.3
102.3
107.9
75.8
Iron
and
steel
4.21
70.1
93.2
91.5
88 2
66.5
76.5
111
74.2
77 3
84.3
95.9
105 2
108.4
100 0
103.2
112.6
104 7
96.1
1071
122.3
119.8
95.8
104.8
103 8
113.2
113.2
92.4
99.8
Fabricated
metal
products
NonElectrieleccal
trical machinmachinery
ery
Nondurable manufactures
Transportation
equipment
Motor
Total
Ve
arfd eS
parts
Chemicals
and
products
Foods
5.93
9.15
8.05
9.27
1.64
3.31
4.72
7.74
8.75
49.9
50.8
45.8
56.1
599
58.5
66 0
59.4
67.8
68.8
70 6
63.3
71.0
711
69.4
754
77.8
82.6
908
97.2
100 0
105.6
107.9
102 4
103.5
1121
124.7
124.2
109.9
123.9
1310
141.6
148.5
134.1
136.4
114.8
39.0
39.2
33.4
31.8
34.8
34.9
58.9
61.3
54.1
37.5
47 7
51.9
54 0
46.1
50.6
58.0
57 9
48.6
56.7
569
55.4
621
66.3
75.6
85 0
98.8
100 0
101.8
109.3
104 4
100.2
116 0
133.7
140.1
125.1
134.5
1436
153.6
163.7
162.8
171.2
148.6
22.2
23.0
21.6
29.6
29.8
34.0
39.0
34.7
39.9
43.1
42.8
39.2
47.6
51.6
54.8
62.9
64.7
68.4
81.7
97.9
100.0
105.5
111.9
108.1
107.7
122.2
143.1
143.8
116.5
134.8
145 4
159.4
175.0
172.8
178.4
169.2
41.8
46.6
54.2
68.0
59.2
68.0
66.0
70.7
55.8
63.2
65.4
61.5
71.1
78.0
80.0
95.1
102.0
100.0
111.1
108.4
89.5
97.9
108.2
118.3
108.7
97.4
111.1
122 2
132.5
135.4
116.9
116.1
104.9
60.5
81.2
65.8
69.0
51.0
66.2
74.7
65.5
79.8
88.3
90.7
115.9
113.9
100.0
120.3
116.5
92.3
118.6
135.8
148.8
128.2
111.1
142.0
1611
169.9
159.9
119.0
122.3
109.8
65.7
65.5
64.7
68.4
68.0
57.8
60.3
59.7
64.3
63.1
66.3
67.2
66.4
73.3
75.0
74.9
72.8
80.1
81.7
82.2
85.5
89.1
92.2
97.4
99.9
100.0
102.9
106.7
101.4
104.7
109.4
117.3
114.3
107.6
125.7
134.2
134.2
134.4
127.0
120.4
43.3
45.4
46.6
48.9
49.7
49.7
52.0
54.1
59.5
63.2
65 4
63.9
68.2
71.0
71.3
73.9
77.8
82.6
87.9
94.6
100.0
103.2
107.4
107.0
107.1
112.7
118.2
118.2
113.3
122.5
127 6
131.5
136.9
139.6
144.2
144.3
19.7
21.3
21.0
26.2
29 7
31.1
33.6
34,1
39.8
42.7
452
46.6
54.3
56.4
59.2
65.7
71.8
78.8
87 8
95.7
1000
109.5
118.4
120.4
125.9
143.6
154.5
159.4
147.2
170.9
185 7
197.4
211.8
207.1
215.6
55.8
55.2
55.9
57.9
59 0
60.2
614
62.7
66.3
70.1
711
72.9
76.5
78.6
80.9
834
86.4
90.4
924
96.0
1000
102.6
106.1
108.9
112.8
116,8
120.9
124.0
123.4
133.0
138 8
142,7
147.5
149.6
152.1
123.8
1216
120.2
121.6
122 6
121.1
122.6
122.6
122.5
117.8
113.8
114.1
143.9
144 8
142.7
141.6
1413
143.1
144.4
146.1
145.9
145.6
143.4
145.3
2189
219 8
218.5
219.8
220 6
218.4
221.5
219.2
216.3
208.8
204.6
199.8
1519
152 5
152.4
151.9
152 2
151.3
151.6
151.9
150.7
151.4
153.0
152.8
145 6
146 4
145.9
144.2
143.8
142.6
143 9
145 3
144 3
142 6
1426
144 0
196 7
2013
200.3
198.6
193.6
193.2
1941
195 6
196 4
193 7
192 8
1511
1517
150.8
149.7
150.5
151.0
1510
150 7
149 0
150 6
4.50
114.1
114 5
114.9
110.6
1119
107.4
109.4
113.1
108.6
102.3
96.6
89.6
108 7
1084
108.0
103.4
105 6
98.5
99.7
105.1
99.2
92.2
87.2
79.2
135 8
137 6
139.2
139.5
138 4
139.3
140.1
1400
136.8
133.8
130.2
126.1
167 3
168 3
169.2
169.7
1721
174.1
176.7
1764
173.9
169.7
167.9
167.4
177.6
174 9
177.4
178.8
179.9
180.1
180.9
182.6
180.0
179.6
175.7
170.7
117.4
1161
119.5
121.3
123.7
123.4
119.8
115.4
114.2
110.6
106.1
103.7
120.0
119 9
127.1
130.7
136 4
137.5
130.5
123.1
120.4
113.8
105.5
100.4
89.7
88 5
83.0
76.4
75.2
72.8
72.9
72.9
73 2
70 0
671
65.9
79 6
78 5
73.0
65.1
62.4
58.0
58.1
57 4
56 4
541
514
120 7
1214
121.1
119.1
115.8
115.0
115 5
114 3
112 3
108 5
107 4
106.5
160 9
160 0
157.3
153.7
150.0
147.4
1471
147 2
144 9
140 5
138 0
135.8
168.2
172 9
172.6
172.2
170.9
170.8
170.3
169.7
167.0
165.7
164 9
164.5
96 6
102 0
104.4
105.9
110.0
111.6
112.7
107 0
105.3
100 8
100 0
103.7
90 4
98 6
105.6
110.7
119.8
124.0
127.2
116.7
113.5
103 0
1017
108.8
Source.* Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Lumber Apparel Printing
and
and
prod- publishproducts
ing
ucts
212
75.9
75.0
688
69.9
79.3
747
78.2
82.5
86.3
92.7
96.3
100.0
100.0
105.5
107.9
105.6
113.8
120.8
126.0
116.2
107.6
123.2
131.2
136.3
136.9
119.3
119.1
127.4
126 2
125.6
126.3
126 2
122.5
122.9
119.1
113.2
109.6
104.7
104.8
99 2
104 9
103.5
106.2
110.6
112.2
116.9
120 3
1199
117 2
119 4
TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization rate in manufacturing, 1948-82
[Percent; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Commerce series 2
FRB series >
Year or quarter
Total
manufacturing
Primary
processing
Advanced
processing
1948
1949
82.5
74.2
87.2
76.2
80 0
73.3
1950..
1951
1952
1953
1954 ..
82.8
85 8
85.4
892
80.3
88.5
90 2
84.9
89 4
80.6
79 8
83 4
85 9
89 3
80.1
87.1
86.4
83 7
75.2
81.9
92.1
89.7
84 7
75.4
83.4
84.3
84.5
831
75.1
81.1
I960
1961..
1962
1963 .
1964
80.2
77 4
81.6
83.5
85.6
79.8
77 9
81.6
83.8
87.8
80.4
111
817
83.4
84.6
1965
1966
1967
1968..
1969
1970 ..
1971
1972
1973
1974
89.6
91.1
86.9
87.1
86.2
91.1
91.4
85.7
87.7
88.5
88.9
91.2
87.6
86 8
85.0
86
86
84
85
85
88
87
83
84
84
85
86
85
86
86
89
88
87
86
87
85
85
83
84
84
79.3
78.4
83.5
87.6
83.8
82 9
82.3
88.2
92.5
87.8
77 4
76.3
81.0
85.0
81.5
81
80
83
86
83
78
78
82
85
82
83
83
85
86
84
83
82
85
89
85
79
80
82
84
82
1975
1976
1977 ..
1978
1979
72.9
79.5
819
84.4
85.7
73.7
81.9
84 0
86.9
88.1
72.5
78.2
808
83.0
84.3
77
81
83
84
83
76
81
84
84
83
79
82
82
83
82
76
82
83
84
84
1980
1981
1982"
79.1
78.5
69.8
78.5
78.4
66.4
79.4
78.5
71.6
78
76
77
75
79
78
77
76
77
81
83
84
82
78
76
1978:
j
II
III
IV
82.0
83 9
85 2
86.4
84.0
86 3
87 9
89.5
80.9
82 7
83 7
84.6
84
84
83
84
84
85
83
85
83
82
82
83
83
84
84
85
84
84
82
84
86.9
859
85 3
84.4
89.0
88 2
88 3
86.9
85.7
847
83 7
83.0
84
83
82
81
85
84
82
80
83
82
82
82
85
84
83
83
84
83
81
80
.
83.4
77.9
75.9
79.1
85.5
76.4
73.1
79.3
82.5
78.7
77.4
78 8
80
76
76
78
80
74
75
78
81
78
78
78
81
75
74
78
80
76
77
78
..
79.9
79.8
79.3
74.8
81.3
80.3
79.4
72.7
79.1
79.6
79.2
75.9
78
78
76
72
77
77
74
70
79
80
78
75
78
78
76
71
78
78
76
73
71.6
70.3
69.7
67.6
69.1
66.3
66.1
64.3
73.2
72.5
71.6
69.2
72
71
69
70
68
65
75
76
74
70
66
66
73
74
71
1955
1956
1957.
1958
1959
..
.
.
..
1979:
||
III
I
V
1980:
11
HI
IV .
1981:
I
HI ...
IV
1982:
II
III
IV p
..
Total
manufacturing
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Primary- Advancedprocessed processed
goods
goods
1
For description of the series, see "Federal Reserve Measures of Capacity and Capacity Utilization," February 1978.
2
Quarterly data are for last month in quarter. Annual data are averages of the four indexes, except for 1965 (December index) and
1966-67 (averages of June and December indexes). For description of the series, see "Survey of Current Business," July 1974.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis).
213
TABLE B-46.—Neiv construction activity, 1929-82
[Value put in place, billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Public construction
Private construction
Year or month
Total
new
construction
Nonresidential buildings and other
construction1
Residential
buildings'
Total
Total
Total2
housing
units
Total
Commercial 3
Industrial
Federal
State and
local5
2.3
Other*
1929
10.8
8.3
3.6
3.0
4.7
1.1
0.9
2.6
2.5
0.2
1933
2.9
1.2
.5
.3
.8
.1
.2
.5
1.6
.5
1.1
1939
8.2
4.4
2.7
2.3
1.7
.3
.3
1.2
3.8
.8
3.1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
8.7
12 0
14.1
83
5.3
5.1
6.2
3.4
2.0
2.2
3.0
35
1.7
9
.8
2.6
3.0
1.4
,7
.6
2.1
2.7
1.7
1.1
1.4
.3
.4
.2
.0
.1
.4
.8
.3
2
.2
1.3
1.5
1.2
.9
1.1
3.6
5.8
10.7
6.3
3.1
1.2
38
9.3
56
2.5
2.4
2.0
1.3
.7
.6
1945
1946
5.8
14.3
3.4
12.1
1.3
6.2
.7
4.8
2.1
5.8
.2
1.2
.6
1.7
1.3
3.0
2.4
2.2
1.7
.9
.7
1.4
1947
1948
1949
20.0
261
26.7
16.7
214
20.5
9.9
131
12.4
7.8
10.5
10.0
6.9
82
8.0
1.0
14
1.2
1.7
14
1.0
4.2
55
5.9
3.3
47
6.3
8
12
1.5
2.5
35
4.8
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
33.6
35.4
36.8
391
41.4
26.7
26.2
26.0
27 9
29.7
18.1
15.9
15.8
16 6
18.2
15.6
13.2
12.9
13.4
14.9
8.6
10.3
10.2
113
11.5
1.4
1.5
1.1
18
2.2
1.1
2.1
2.3
22
2.0
6.1
6.7
6.8
73
7.2
6.9
9.3
10.8
112
11.7
1.6
3.0
42
41
3.4
5.2
6.3
6.6
71
8.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
46.5
47.6
491
50,0
55.4
34.8
34.9
351
34.6
39.3
21.9
20.2
19 0
19.8
24.3
18.2
16.1
14.7
15.4
19.2
12.9
14.7
161
14.8
15.1
3.2
3.6
36
3.6
3.9
2.4
3.1
36
2.4
2.1
7.3
8.0
90
8.8
9.0
11.7
12.7
141
15.5
16.1
2.8
2.7
30
3.4
3.7
8.9
10.0
11.1
12.1
12.3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
54.7
56 4
60.2
64 8
68.0
38.9
39.3
42.3
45.5
47.7
23.0
231
25.2
27 9
28.0
17.3
17.1
19.4
21.7
21.8
15.9
16 2
17.2
17 6
19.7
4.2
47
5.1
5.0
5.4
2.9
28
2.8
2S
3.6
8.9
8.7
9.2
9.7
10.7
15.9
171
17.9
19.4
20.4
3.6
39
3.9
40
3.9
12.2
13.3
14.0
15.4
16.5
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
74 1
76.8
78.5
87 5
94.3
52.0
52.8
52.9
59 9
66.3
27 9
25.7
25.6
306
33.2
21.7
19.4
19.0
24 0
25.9
24 1
27.1
27.3
29 3
33.1
78
9.4
60
6.8
15 5
16.9
221
24.0
25.5
27 6
28.0
40
4.0
35
34
3.3
18 0
20.0
22.1
24 2
24.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
95.2
110.3
124.4
138 4
139.2
67.1
80.4
94.2
105 9
100.9
31.9
43.3
54.3
59 7
50.4
24.3
35.1
44.9
50 1
40.6
35.3
37.2
40.0
46 2
50.5
9.8
11.6
13.5
15 5
15.9
6.5
5.4
4.7
62
7.9
19.0
20.1
21.8
24 5
26.7
28.1
29.9
30.2
32 5
38.3
3.3
4.0
4.4
49
5.3
24.8
25.9
25.8
27 6
33.0
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
135 9
151.1
173.8
205.6
230.4
951
112.0
135.7
159.7
181.6
46 5
60.5
81.0
93.4
99.0
34 4
47.3
65.7
75.8
78.6
48 6
51.4
54.7
66.2
82.6
12 8
12.8
14.8
18.6
24.9
80
7.2
7.7
11.0
15.0
27 8
31.5
32.2
36.7
42.7
40 9
39.1
38.2
45.9
48.8
63
7.0
7.3
8.4
8.6
34 6
32.1
30.9
37.5
40.2
1980
1981
230.7
238.2
175.7
185.2
87.3
86.6
63.1
62.7
88.4
98.7
29.9
34.2
13.8
17.0
44.7
47.4
55.1
53.0
19.7
10.0
45.4
42.9
New series
See next page for continuation of table.
214
TABLE B-46.—New construction activity, 1929-82—Continued
[Value put in place, billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Private construction
Year or month
Total
new
construction
Residential
buildings1
Total
Public construction
Nonresidential buildings and other
construction >
New
Total 2 housing
units
Total
Commercial 3
Industrial
Total
Other*
Federal State and
local 6
1981:
Jan
Feb....
Mar....
Apr....
May....
June...
255.4
250.7
249.4
247.6
240.9
237.5
193.7
191.7
190.6
192.1
189.3
185.9
99.5
96.9
95.8
95.1
92.3
89.1
73.9
72.4
72.1
72.2
69.5
66.8
94.2
94.8
94.8
97.0
97.0
96.8
32.8
33.0
33.6
34.3
33.5
33.6
15.8
14.9
15.3
16.4
15.9
16.7
45.5
46.9
45.9
46.4
47.6
46.5
61.7
59.0
58.9
55.4
51.7
51.7
10.7
10.9
9.8
10.3
10.1
10.1
51.0
48.1
49,1
45.1
41.5
41.6
July....
Aug...,
Sept...
Oct
Nov....
Dec...,
238.1
235.9
233.5
230.8
230.0
228.8
186.9
185.2
182.4
180.0
178.1
176.6
87.0
84.1
80.4
78.2
76.2
75.8
64.1
60.8
57.1
53.4
50.4
49.4
99.9
101.1
102.0
101.8
102.0
100.7
34.2
34.3
34.9
34.6
35.7
36.4
17.8
18.7
18.5
18.5
18.4
16.6
47.9
48.2
48.6
48.6
47.9
47.7
51.2
50.7
51.1
50.8
51.9
52.2
10.1
9.2
10.1
9.8
9.6
9.8
41.0
41.4
41.0
41.0
42.3
42.4
225.1
222.6
224.6
226.1
228.7
231.6
175.5
173.0
173.6
175.1
179.9
182.7
73.7
69.2
70.0
72.3
75.5
75.3
51.0
49.2
51.0
49.6
51.0
49.8
101.8
103.9
103.6
102.8
104.5
107.4
36.2
36.8
38.4
38.4
36.8
38.0
17.1
17.2
16.6
15.9
17.1
18.4
48.5
49.8
48.6
48.5
50.6
50.9
49.6
49.6
51.0
51.0
48.8
48.9
9.2
9.6
10.0
9.8
9.6
9.5
40.4
40.0
41.0
41.1
39.2
39.4
227.6
228.1
228.1
229.1
237.2
178.7
176.6
177.0
177.7
184.4
73.4
72.1
71.5
74.1
78.4
51.5
52.3
53.1
52.3
54.2
105.3
104.5
105.6
103.6
106.0
37.5
36.1
37.1
35.7
37.1
16.4
16.7
16.6
17.1
17.2
51.4
51.7
51.8
50.9
51.7
48.9
51.4
51.1
51.3
52.8
9.9
10.2
10.5
10.4
10.6
39.0
41.2
40.6
40.9
42.2
1982:
Jan
Feb....
Mar...,
Apr...
May...
June...
July...,
Aug...
Sept..,
Oct
Nov.
1
Beginning I960, farm residential buildings included in residential buildings; prior to 1960, included in nonresidential buildings and
other construction.
2
Total includes additions and alterations and nonhousekeeping units, not shown separately.
3
Office buildings, warehouses, stores, restaurants, garages, etc.
4
Religious, educational, hospital and institutional, miscellaneous nonresidential, farm (see also footnote 1), public utilities, and all
other private.
6
Includes Federal grants-in-aid for State and local projects.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
215
TABLE B-47.—New bousing units started and authorized, 1959-82
[Thousands of units]
New private housing units authorized2
New housing units started
Private and public
Year or month
1
Total
(farm and Nonfarm
nonfarm)
Private (farm and nonfarm)»
Type of structure
Type of structure
Total
1 unit
2 to 4
units
Total
1 unit
5 units
or more
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more
1959
1,553.7
1,531.3
1,517.0
1,234.0
283.0
1,208.3
938.3
77.1
192.9
1960
1961
1962..,.
1963..,.
1964....
1,296.1
1,365.0
1,492.5
1,634.9
1,561.0
1,274.0
1,336.8
1,468.7
1,614.8
1,534.0
1,252.2
1,313.0
1,462.9
1,603.2
1,528.8
994.7
974.3
991.4
1,012.4
970.5
257.4
338.7
471.5
590.8
108.4
450.0
998.0
1,064.2
1,186.6
1,334.7
1,285.8
746.1
722.8
716.2
750.2
720.1
64.6
67.6
87.1
118.9
100.8
187,4
273.8
383.3
465.6
464.9
1965....
1966....
1967....
1968....
1969....
1,509.7
1,195.8
1,321.9
1,545.4
1,499.5
1,487.5
1,172.8
1,298.8
1,521.4
1,482.3
1,472.8
1,164.9
1,291.6
1,507.6
1,466.8
963.7
778.6
843.9
899.4
810.6
86.6
61.1
71.6
80.9
85.0
422.5
325.1
376.1
527.3
571.2
1,239.8
971.9
1,141.0
1,353.4
1,323.7
709.9
563.2
650.6
694.7
625.9
84.8
61.0
73.0
84.3
85.2
445.1
347.7
417.5
574.4
612.7
1970....
1971....
1972
1973
1974
1,469.0
2,084.5
2,378.5
2,057.5
1,352.5
1,433.6
2,052.2
2,356.6
2,045.3
1,337.7
812.9
1,151.0
1,309.2
1,132.0
84.8
120.3
141.3
118.3
68.1
535.9
780.9
906.2
795.0
381.6
1,351.5
1,924.6
2,218.9
1,819.5
1,074.4
646.8
906.1
1,033.1
882.1
643.8
88.1
132.9
148.6
117.0
64.3
616.7
885.7
1,037.2
820.5
366.2
1975....
1976
1977
1978....
1979
1,171.4
1,547.6
2,001.7
2,036.1
1,760.0
1,160.4
1,537.5
1,987.1
2,020.3
1,745.1
892.2
1,162.4
1,450.9
1,433.3
1,194.1
64.0
85.9
121.7
125.0
122.0
204.3
289.2
414.4
462.0
429.0
939.2
1,296.2
1,690.0
1,800.5
1,551.8
675.5
893.6
1,126.1
1,182.6
981.5
63.9
93.1
121.3
130.6
125.4
199.8
309.5
442.7
487.3
444.8
1980
1981....
1982"..
1,312.6
1,100.3
1,070.4
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,060.6
852.2
705.4
661.0
109.5
91.1
80.7
330.5
287.7
319.0
1,190.6
985.5
992.5
710.4
564.3
540.0
114.5
101.8
88.6
365.7
319.4
363.9
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
85,2
72.5
108.9
124.0
110.6
107.0
1,585
1,294
1,318
1,301
1,172
1,046
974
835
863
868
776
705
139
114
108
97
105
89
472
345
347
336
291
252
1,236
1,196
1,172
1,186
1,178
986
712
699
686
682
659
573
139
115
113
123
112
109
385
382
373
381
407
304
101.0
87.3
90.9
88.2
64.9
59.7
1,040
946
899
854
860
882
696
614
623
507
554
550
88
76
62
78
81
74
256
256
214
269
225
258
941
878
835
738
743
797
543
505
456
400
413
454
98
91
81
85
78
88
300
282
298
253
252
255
47.6
52.0
78.7
85.1
99.2
91.8
885
945
931
882
1,066
908
592
568
621
566
631
621
70
84
67
64
86
83
223
293
243
252
349
204
803
792
851
879
944
929
450
436
460
450
488
516
68
75
81
76
102
91
285
281
310
353
354
322
107.2
97.2
108.3
111.7
111.9
81.7
1,193
1,033
1,129
1,126
1,404
1,222
628
645
677
701
883
800
102
88
92
64
79
86
463
300
360
361
442
336
1,062
888
1,003
1,172
1,192
1,291
500
497
561
651
729
732
85
83
96
86
96
111
477
308
346
435
367
448
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec P.....
1
Units in structures built by private developers for sale upon completion to local public housing authorities under the Department of
Housing and Urban Development "Turnkey" program are classified as private housing. Military housing starts, including those financed
with mortgages insured by FHA under Section 803 of the National Housing Act, are included in publicly owned starts and excluded from
total private starts.
2
Authorized by issuance of local building permit: in 16,000 permit-issuing places beginning 1978; in 14,000 places for 1972 77; in
13,000 places for 1967=71; in 12,000 places for 1963-66; and in 10,000 places prior to 1963.
<
» Not available separately beginning January 1970.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
216
TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1947-83
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Plant and equipment
Manufacturing
Year or quarter
Total
Plant
Nonmanufacturing
Pnuin
tquipment
Total
DuraNonble durable
goods goods
1947
1948
1949..
2180
25.46
23.54
8.45
10.35
10.20
1335
15.11
13.34
8.73
9.25
7.32
339
534
3.54
2.67
5.71
4.64
1950
1951
1952...
1953
1954
25.32
30.83
3159
33.58
33.13
10.94
13.08
13.14
13.82
14.09
7.73
11.07
12.12
12.43
12.00
3 22
5.12
5 75
5.71
5.49
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
36 58
44.76
48.12
42.17
44.78
15 97
19.34
20.94
19.41
19.89
14 37
17.74
1845
19.76
19.03
20 60
25.42
27.19
22.76
24.89
12 50
16.33
17.50
12.98
13.76
5 87
8.19
8.59
6.21
6.72
I960
1961
19S2
1963
1964..
20.94
21.12
22.12
22.23
24.96
27 24
32.21
32 22
35.51
40.54
27 70
26.70
2916
31.03
36.70
16.36
15.53
16.03
17.27
21.23
8 28
7.43
7 81
8.64
10.98
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
48 63
47.82
5128
53.25
61.66
70 43
82.22
83 42
88.45
99.52
4319
50.01
5120
52.94
58.99
2541
31.37
32 25
32.34
36.27
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
105 61
108.53
120 25
137.70
156.98
44 24
46.60
49 35
56.66
64.29
6136
6193
70 89
81.04
92.69
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
157.71
17145
198.08
23124
270.46
65.21
7120
80.31
92 70
105.73
92 50
100 25
117.77
138 54
164.73
1980
1981
3
19823
1983
295.63
321.49
319.99
315.69
117.55
133.46
312 24
316 73
328 25
327.83
327 72
323.22
315.79
315.21
I
I
I
IV
Mining
Transpor- Public
utilitation
ties
Trade
and
services1
Communication
and
other2
2 40
3.04
2.63
13.07
16.21
16.22
0 69
.93
.88
2 21
2.66
2.30
1.64
2.67
3.28
4.51
5.95
637
6.72
6.51
6 62
8.15
8.91
6.77
7.04
17.59
19.76
19.47
21.16
21.13
84
1.11
121
1.25
1.29
2 38
3.05
2 99
2.97
2.42
3.42
3.75
3.96
4.61
4.23
613
6.92
7.13
8 37
8.83
805
8.94
9.59
24.08
28.43
30.62
29.19
31.02
131
1.64
1.69
1.43
1.35
2 60
3.07
3.35
2.34
3.17
4 26
4.78
5.95
5.74
5.46
1149
13.64
13.68
14.11
15.40
2 58
3.03
3 25
3.38
3.60
4 42
5 30
5.96
5.58
5.63
32.28
32.29
35.25
35.99
40.43
1.29
1.26
141
1.26
1.33
3.19
2.82
3.26
3.36
4.46
5.40
5.20
5.12
5.33
5.80
1615
16.53
1827
18.57
20.38
6 25
6.48
719
7.47
8.46
13 49
17.23
17 83
17.93
19.97
8.08
8.10
8.22
8.63
10.25
1192
14.15
14 42
14.40
16.31
45.02
50.84
51.18
56.11
63.25
136
1.42
1.44
1.77
5 46
6.43
634
6.79
7.04
6.49
7.82
9.33
10.52
11.70
2213
24.69
23 02
25.31
28.31
9 58
10.49
1111
12.06
14.43
36 99
33.60
35 42
42.37
53.21
54.92
59 95
69.22
79 72
98.68
19 80
16 78
18 22
22.75
27.44
1719
16.82
17 20
19.62
25.76
68 62
74.93
84 82
95.33
103.78
2 02
2.67
2 88
3.31
4.62
695
5.93
6 72
7.41
8.23
13.03
14.70
16.26
17.97
19.83
29 77
34.20
4000
45.53
47.79
26 33
28 47
34.04
4043
51.07
28.59
3147
35.18
39 29
47.61
102.79
111.50
128.87
151.52
171.77
6.10
744
9.24
11.38
8.68
8.89
9.40
10.68
12.35
19.98
22.37
26.79
29.95
33.96
46.23
49.30
56.54
68.66
79.26
16 85
17.43
1896
21.12
23.30
21.80
23.51
26.90
32.02
34.83
178.08
188 04
115.81
126.79
122.67
119.52
58.91
6184
57.95
57.35
56.90
64.95
64.72
62.18
179.81
194.70
197.32
196.16
13.51
16.86
16.05
16.45
12.09
12.05
11.80
11.92
35.44
38.40
41.62
39.98
81.79
86.33
86.42
86.86
36.99
41.06
41.43
40.96
128.57
13105
136 40
136.67
183 67
185 68
19185
191.17
124 50
125 49
13011
126.91
6124
6310
62 58
60.78
63 27
62 40
67 53
66.14
187.74
191.24
198.13
200.92
16 20
1680
17 55
16.81
11.74
11.70
11.61
13.12
36.05
37.84
39.55
39.74
83.43
85.88
87.55
88.33
40.32
39.02
41.89
42.92
139 49
137.95
135.14
188 23
185.28
180.65
12832
123.77
119.46
120.50
60 84
59.03
57.14
55.80
67 48
64.74
62.32
64.70
199.40
199.46
196.33
194.71
17.60
16.56
14.63
15.56
11.99
12.32
11.28
11.82
40.12
41.40
43.38
41.66
87.80
88.85
87.31
82.01
41.89
40.33
39.73
43.65
12143
123.42
57 90
58.30
63 54
65.12
194.97
196.58
16.18
17.33
10.63
11.66
40.76
40.30
85.87
85.87
41.53
41.43
1981:
|
|
Total
138
1021
1982:
I
I
III
1983:
Is3
II
31640
320.00
1
Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services.
"Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services.
Planned capital expenditures reported by business in late October-December 1982, corrected for biases.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2
3
217
TABLE B-49.—Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade 1947-82
[Amounts in millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Total manufacturing and
trade
Year or month
Sales1
Inventories*
Ratio3
Manufacturing
Sales1
Inventories 2
Merchant wholesalers
Ratio3
Sales1
Inven3
tories 2 Ratio
Retail trade
Sales1
Inventories 2
1947...
1948...
1949...
35,260
33,788
52,507
49,497
1.42
1.53
15,513
17,316
16,126
25,897
28,543
26,321
1.58
1.57
1.75
6,514
7,957
7,706
1.13
1.19
10,200
11,135
11,149
14,241
16,007
15,470
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
38,596
43,356
44,840
47,987
46,443
59,822
70,242
72,377
76,122
73,175
1.36
1.55
1.58
1.58
1.60
18,634
21,714
22,529
24,843
23,355
31,078
39,306
41,136
43,948
41,612
1.48
1.66
1.78
1.76
1.81
7,695
8,597
8,782
9,052
8,993
9,284
9,886
10,210
10,686
10,637
1.07
1.16
1.12
1.17
1.18
12,268
13,046
13,529
14,091
14,095
19,460
21,050
21,031
21,488
20,926
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
51,694
54,063
55,879
54,201
59,729
79,516
87,304
89,052
87,093
92,129
1.47
1.55
1.59
1.60
1.50
26,480
27,740
28,736
27,247
30,286
45,069
50,642
51,871
50,241
52,945
1.62
1.73
1.80
1.84
1.70
9,893
10,513
10,475
10,257
11,491
11,678
13,260
12,730
12,739
13,879
1.13
1.19
1.23
1.24
1.15
15,321
15,811
16,667
16,696
17,951
22,769
23,402
24,451
24,113
25,305
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
60,827
61,159
65,662
68,995
73,682
94,713
95,594
101,063
105,480
111,503
1.56
1.54
1.50
1.49
1.47
30,879
30,923
33,357
35,058
37,331
53,780
54,885
58,186
60,046
63,409
1.75
1.74
1.70
1.69
1.64
11,656
11,988
12,674
13,382
14,529
14,120
14,488
14,936
16,048
17,000
1.22
1.20
1.16
1.15
1.14
18,294
18,249
19,630
20,556
21,823
26,813
26,221
27,941
29,386
31,094
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
80,283
87,187
90,348
98,104
105,003
120,907
136,790
144,796
155,697
169,343
1.45
1.47
1.56
1.54
1.55
40,995
44,870
46,487
50,228
53,501
68,185
77,952
84,664
90,618
98,202
1.60
1.62
1.76
1.74
1.77
15,611
16,987
19,448
20,846
22,609
18,317
20,765
24,833
26,134
28,624
1.15
1.15
1.24
1.23
1.22
23,677
25,330
24,413
27,030
28,893
34,405
38,073
35,299
38,945
42,517
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
107,448
116,017
130,030
153,412
177,625
177,556
187,766
201,950
233,237
285,807
1.62
1.58
1.49
1.41
1.45
52,805
55,906
63,023
72,937
84,794
101,651
102,658
108,238
124,628
157,792
1.90
1.83
1.67
1.58
1.65
23,943
26,257
29,584
38,014
47,748
32,038
35,045
38,633
45,372
56,948
1.27
1.27
1.24
1.11
1.07
30,700
33,853
37,422
42,462
45,082
43,867
50,063
55,079
63,237
71,067
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
182,230
204,277
229,623
259,046
294,573
288,375
318,544
351,176
397,090
444,132
1.57
1.48
1.46
1.44
1.43
86,595
98,802
113,201
126,953
143,935
159,934
175,193
189,334
210,679
241,034
1.84
1.69
1.61
1.57
1.57
46,623
50,694
55,987
65,036
76,109
56,697
64,078
72,311
83,891
93,870
1.21
1.19
1.21
1.21
1.18
49,012 71,744
54,781 79,273
60,435 89,530
67,057 102,520
74,529 109,228
1980
1981
321,504
350,622
482,570
519,394
1.45
1.43
154,249
166,217
264,016
283,152
1.66
1.66
87,931 104,441
97,839 110,549
1.13
1.09
79,325 114,114
86,566 125,693
347,858
348,653
350,281
352,855
353,698
356,524
485,396
490,291
492,399
494,177
497,812
501,531
1.40
1.41
1.41
1.40
1.41
1.41
163,902
164,676
165,936
167,649
168,073
170,951
266,798
269,146
271,062
272,060
274,196
274,616
1.63
1.63
1.63
1.62
1.63
1.61
99,852
98,776
98,217
98,944
99,264
98,274
104,233
105,027
105,189
105,149
105,425
106,904
1.04
1.06
1.07
1.06
1.06
1.09
84,104
85,201
86,128
86,263
86,361
87,299
114,365
116,118
116,148
116,968
118,191
120,010
355,236
354,520
353,725
346,605
344,943
341,330
504,744
510,099
515,349
518,241
521,574
519,394
1.42
1.44
1.46
1.50
1.51
1.52
170,333
169,274
168,156
163,957
161,442
159,614
276,983
279,102
282,209
284,386
285,784
283,152
1.63
1.65
1.68
1.73
1.77
1.77
97,611
97,285
97,746
96,235
96,768
95,144
105,768
107,656
108,764
108,491
110,173
110,549
1.08
1.11
1.11
1.13
1.14
1.16
87,292
87,961
87,823
86,413
86,733
86,572
121,993
123,341
124,376
125,364
125,618
125,693
334,579
340,571
342,121
339,835
349,096
346,126
516,256
513,906
513,054
515,074
510,517
512,981
1.54
1.51
1.50
1.52
1.46
1.48
155,023
158,142
157,517
156,114
160,828
161,519
281,155
281,688
280,065
278,985
276,449
275,115
1.81
1.78
1.78
1.79
1.72
1.70
94,236
95,010
97,361
95,427
97,427
96,565
110,971
108,823
109,657
112,913
111,701
113,515
1.18
1.15
1.13
1.18
1.15
1.18
85,320
87,418
87,242
88,294
90,841
88,042
124,131
123,395
123,332
123,175
122,367
124,351
344,603
339,464
339,470
332,537
335,938
513,387
514,554
515,399
514,224
508,553
1.49
1.52
1.52
1.55
1.51
161,382
158,619
159,278
152,473
152,343
274,914
274,302
272,474
271,710
269,297
1.70
1.73
1.71
1.78
1.77
93,776
92,343
90,866
89,774
90,982
113,534
113,101
113,852
113,886
112,669
1.21
1.22
1.25
1.27
1.24
89,445
88,502
89,326
90,290
92,613
124,939
127,151
129,073
128,628
126,587
1981:
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
ftay...
June....
July
Aug
Sept
Ocf
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar....
June...
July..
Aug..
Sfc
Nov...
1
2
3
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
Inventory/sales ratio. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio* of
inventories at end of month to sales for month.
Note.—Earlier data are not strictly comparable with data beginning 1958 for manufacturing and beginning 1967 for wholesale and
retail trade.
The inventory figures in this table do not agree with the estimates of change in business inventories included in the gross national
product since these figures cover only manufacturing and trade rather than all business, and show inventories in terms of current book
value without adjustment for revaluation.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
218
TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipments and inventories, 1947-82
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Shipments
Year or
month
Total
1
Durable
goods
industries
Inventories2
Nondurable
industries
Durable goods industries
Total
Total
Materials and
supplies
Work
in
proc-
Nondurable goods industries
Finished
goods
Total
Materials and
supplies
Work
in
process
Finished
goods
1947
1948
1949
15,513
17,316
16,126
6,694
7,579
7,191
8,819
9,738
8,935
25,897
28,543
26,321
13,061
14,662
13,060
12,836
13,881
13,261
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
18,634
21,714
22,529
24,843
23,355
8,845
10,493
11,313
13,349
11,828
9,789
11,221
11,216
11,494
11,527
31,078
39,306
41,136
43,948
41,612
15,539
20,991
23,731
25,878
23,710
8,966
7,894
10,720
9,721
6,206
6,040
15,539
18,315
17,405
18,070
17,902
8,317
8,167
2,472
2,440
7,409
7,415
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
26,480
27,740
28,736
27,247
30,286
14,071
14,715
15,237
13,563
15,609
12,409
13,025
13,499
13,684
14,677
45,069
50,642
51,871
50,241
52,945
26,405
30,447
31,728
30,258
32,077
9,194
10,417
10,608
10,032
10,776
10,756
12,317
12,837
12,387
13,063
6,348
7,565
8,125
7,839
8,239
18,664
20,195
20,143
19,983
20,868
8,556
8,971
8,775
8,662
9,080
2,571
2,721
2,864
2,828
2,944
7,666
8,622
8,624
8,491
8,845
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
30,879
30,923
33,357
35,058
37,331
15,883
15,616
17,262
18,280
19,637
14,996
15,307
16,095
16,778
17,694
53,780
54,885
58,186
60,046
63,409
32,371
32,544
34,632
35,866
38,506
10,353
10,279
10,810
11,068
11,970
12,772
13,203
14,159
14,871
16,191
9,245
9,063
9,662
9,925
10,344
21,409
22,341
23,554
24,180
24,903
9,082
9,493
9,813
9,978
10,131
2,946
3,110
3,296
3,406
3,511
9,380
9,738
10,444
10,796
11,261
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
40,995
44,870
46,487
50,228
53,501
22,221
24,649
25,267
27,659
29,437
18,774
20,220
21,220
22,570
24,064
68,185
77,952
84,664
90,618
98,202
42,257
49,920
55,005
58,875
64,739
13,325
15,489
16,455
17,376
18,693
18,075
21,939
25,005
27,336
30,408
10,854
12,491
13,547
14,163
15,639
25,928
28,032
29,659
31,743
33,463
10,448
11,155
11,715
12,289
12,724
3,806
4,204
4,421
4,848
5,122
11,674
12,673
13,523
14,606
15,617
1970
1971
1972
1.973
1974
52,805
55,906
63,023
72,937
84,794
28,188
29,954
34,024
39,686
44,228
24,617
25,952
29,000
33,250
40,567
101,651
102,658
108,238
124,628
157,792
66,780
66,289
70,250
81,398
101,739
19,182
19,759
20,860
26,028
35,151
29,848
28,650
30,788
35,545
42,603
17,751
17,880
18,601
19,823
23,985
34,871
36,368
37,988
43,230
56,053
13,150
13,683
14,676
18,132
23,699
5,274
5,665
5,982
6,707
8,175
16,448
17,019
17,330
18,391
24,179
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
86,595
98,802
113,201
126,953
143,935
43,656
50,689
59,267
67,848
76,060
42,939
48,113
53,934
59,104
67,875
159,934
175,193
189,334
210,679
241,034
102,874
112,581
121,737
138,045
160,601
33,920
37,548
40,350
45,334
52,805
43,369
46,345
50,625
58,694
69,212
25,586
28,690
30,763
34,018
38,585
57,060
62,612
67,598
72,634
80,433
23,542
25,833
27,397
29,354
32,479
8,837
9,933
10,989
11,913
13,710
24,681
26,846
29,212
31,367
34,244
1980
1981
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
154,249
166,217
77,540
83,417
76,708
82,800
264,016
283,152
174,674
188,429
55,310
58,461
76,851
82,814
42,513
47,153
89,341
94,723
36,208
38,015
15,656
16,196
37,478
40,511
163,902
164,676
165,936
167,649
168,073
170,951
81,436
82,176
83,510
84,784
85,439
86,891
82,466
82,500
82,426
82,864
82,634
84,060
266,798
269,146
271,062
272,060
274,196
274,616
176,632
177,725
178,374
179,301
180,010
181,125
56,409
56,754
56,382
56,757
56,394
57,017
78,337
78,662
79,159
79,733
80,435
80,362
41,887
42,309
42,835
42,812
43,180
43,744
90,166
91,421
92,688
92,759
94,186
93,492
36,820
37,050
36,974
37,206
37,305
37,074
15,818
16,126
16,194
16,263
16,509
16,161
37,528
38,245
39,521
39,290
40,372
40,257
170,333
169,274
168,156
163,957
161,442
159,614
85,739
85,223
84,671
81,265
80,279
79,133
84,594
84,051
83,485
82,692
81,163
80,481
276,983
279,102
282,209
284,386
285,784
283,152
183,229
185,022
187,686
189,461
190,222
188,429
58,016
58,121
58,908
59,117
59,216
58,461
81,041
81,635
82,621
83,588
84,058
82,814
44,172
45,266
46,158
46,756
46,946
47,153
93,754
94,080
94,523
94,925
95,561
94,723
37,531
37,447
37,606
37,720
37,834
38,015
16,174
16,251
16,213
15,912
16,174
16,196
40,048
40,382
40,705
41,293
41,555
40,511
May!!"!
June....
155,023
158,142
157,517
156,114
160,828
161,519
75,551
77,976
78,124
77,136
79,518
78,888
79,472
80,167
79,394
78,978
81,310
82,631
281,155
281,688
280,065
278,985
276,449
275,115
187,054
187,121
186,063
185,916
184,870
184,289
58,184
57,999
56,897
56,947
55,996
55,643
82,211
82,097
81,729
81,562
81,284
81,304
46,659
47,026
47,435
47,408
47,590
47,342
94,100
94,567
94,002
93,070
91,579
90,826
37,961
37,899
37,317
37,486
37,172
36,714
15,959
15,792
15,629
15,601
15,438
15,555
40,179
40,877
41,057
39,983
38,969
38,557
July
Aug
Sept...,
Oct
Nov...
161,382
158,619
159,278
152,473
152,343
79,036
77,248
76,562
72,342
72,708
82,346
81,371
82,716
80,131
79,635
274,914
274,302
272,474
271,710
269,297
183,798
183,550
182,793
181,843
179,324
55,781
55,191
54,703
54,279
53,624
80,216
80,458
80,379
80,567
79,995
47,801
47,901
47,711
46,997
45,705
91,116
90,752
89,681
89,867
89,973
36,789
36,448
35,800
35,637
35,814
15,519
15,529
15,192
14,857
14,793
38,808
38,775
38,689
39,373
39,366
May!'"!
June....
July
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
1
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, seasonally adjusted, end of period.
Note.—Data beginning 1958 are not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
2
219
TABLE B-51.—Manufacturers' new and unfilled orders, 1947-82
[Amounts in millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
New orders1
Unfitted orders—shipments
ratio 3
Unfilled orders'
Durable goods
industries
Year or month
Total
Total
NonCapital durable
goods
goods
indus- industries
tries,
nondefense
320,977
318,621
310,051
308,370
82,447
82,677
82,378
83,013
82,885
84,111
322,053
322,749
323,054
324,826
327,033
327,105
24,655
24,867
24,312
22,528
24,369
22,130
84,507
83,979
83,272
82,365
80,868
80,239
75,061
76,309
77,859
76,194
75,710
74,550
21,717
21,560
22,174
22,608
20,332
19,278
76,446
72,982
73,266
20,322
18,893
20,273
20,183
20,173
23,278
26,177
25,825
28,116
29,871
27,388
29,998
35,064
42,930
46,853
42,019
51,398
61,076
72,410
79,394
6,903
7,660
6,738
7,444
8,622
10,971
12,673
11,011
12,799
15,276
19,444
23,203
8,868
9,566
8,981
9,945
11,066
11,143
11,439
11,566
12,469
13,003
13,448
13,712
14,720
14,932
15,345
16,061
16,815
17,705
18,823
20,225
21,231
22,571
24,079
24,650
25,986
29,104
33,330
40,415
43,130
48,145
53,951
59,254
67,960
155,738
166,015
79,060
83,272
23,449
24,061
76,678
82,743
May...
June..
164,976
165,375
166,240
169,422
170,281
171,022
82,528
82,699
83,862
86,410
87,396
86,911
25,063
21,857
24,456
25,687
24,488
24,039
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct....
Nov...
Dec...
172,089
168,797
167,728
159,558
159,460
156,660
87,582
84,819
84,456
77,193
78,592
76,421
fc
154,519
155,984
157,198
154,995
156,791
157,058
June..
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct....
Nov.
158,588
154,380
156,166
149,696
150,362
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
Jan....
Feb....
Mar...
1982:
Jan....
Feb....
Mar...
NonDurable
durable
goods
goods
industries industries
28,579
34,473
26,619
30,736
19,622
24,045
41,456
35,435
63,394
67,266
72,680
75,857
58,637
61,178
45,250
48,266
60,004
56,241
67,375
63,880
53,183
50,352
47,370
44,559
52,732
49,373
42,514
45,080
44,375
47,407
45,965
48,577
51,270
54,327
63,691
66,882
76,298
80,071
98,401
94,575
104,547
100,576
109,926
105,950
115,422
111,250
101,566
106,158
102,119
107,147
114,725
121,061
153,876
161,256
, 191,102 185,560
165,930
173,829
174,211
182,499
196,417
204,880
251,663
261,941
291,883
303,178
15,256
17,693
15,614
20,110
23,907
23,204
23,586
22,335
27,465
28,368
27,559
27,002
30,724
30,235
31,104
33,436
35,524
38,357
42,100
46,402
47,056
50,687
53,950
52,038
55,983
64,167
76,259
87,268
85,149
99,543
115,027
131,664
147,354
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
Total
6,388
8,126
6,633
10,165
12,841
12,061
12,147
10,768
14,996
15,365
14,111
13,290
16,003
15,303
15,759
17,374
18,709
20,652
70,607
5,894
4,117
4,423
6,021
3,872
3,177
2,541
3,016
3,763
3,495
2,831
2,811
3,359
2,566
3,032
2,612
3,057
3,191
3,773
3,826
3,971
3,976
4,172
4,592
5,027
6,336
7,380
Total
Durable
goods
industries
3.42
4.12
4.27
4.55
4.00
3.69
3.54
51542
3.63
3.87
3.35
3.09
3.01
2.78
2.63
2.69
2.80
3.10
3.33
3.81
3.70
3.85
3.75
3.65
3.38
3.31
3.91
4.19
7,898
8,288
8,463
10,278
11,295
3.80
3.34
3.30
3.62
3.89
3.95
4.55
4.40
4.65
4.50
4.39
4,06
3.90
4.63
5.03
4.57
3.99
3.92
4.26
4.63
10,926
10,251
3.79
3.77
4.53
4.59
311,146
311,666
312,018
313,642
315,597
315,618
10,907
11,084
11,036
11,184
11,436
11,487
3.80
3.77
3.71
3.70
3.70
3.66
4.56
4.53
4.45
4.44
4.43
4.37
328,861
328,384
327,955
323,556
321,574
318,621
317,462
317,057
316,841
312,769
311,082
308,370
11,399
11,327
11,114
10,787
10,492
10,251
3.68
3.68
3.70
3.76
3.76
3.77
4.42
4.42
4.46
4.55
4.56
4.59
79,458
79,676
79,339
78,803
81,081
82,508
318,114
315,957
315,639
314,521
310,482
306,032
307,877
306,211
305,947
305,004
301,194
296,866
10,237
9,746
9,692
9,518
9,288
9,166
3.90
3.78
3.76
3.86
3.71
3.69
4.76
4.62
4.61
4.71
4.52
4.51
82,142
81,398
82,900
80,098
79,755
303,235
299,001
295,883
293,107
291,128
294,272
290,011
286,706
283,960
281,861
8,963
8,990
9,177
9,147
9,267
3.67
3.69
3.63
3.77
3.72
4.49
4.55
4.46
4.66
4.61
1
Monthly average for
3
Seasonally adjusted,
3
3.37
3.13
3.24
3.37
3.72
year and total for month.
end of period.
Ratio of unfilled orders at end of period to shipments for period; excludes industries with no unfilled orders. Annual figures relate
to seasonally adjusted data for December.
Note.—Data beginning 1958 are not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
220
PRICES
TABLE B-52.—Consumer price indexes, major expenditure classes, 1929-82
[1967^100]
Year or month
1929
1933
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952. .
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968... .
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973.,.
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979...
1980
1981
1982..!
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Julv
..
....
1Z
AugilZZ
Sept
Oct
Nov..
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
June
July
Aug
Sept
Nov
Dec
All
items
Housing
Food and
beverages
2
Total*
Food
Total
Other
Apparel TransEnterRent, Home Fuel and and portation Medical tainment goods
care
and
resi- owner- other upkeep
services
dential ship utilities3
83.0
83.5
85.1
87.3
89.9
91.7
93.8
95.9
97.1
97 3
98.2
98.4
98.3
98.8
100.0
101.3
103.6
107.6
115.0
120.1
126.9
150.2
167.8
182.7
202.2
216.0
239.3
278.6
319.2
350.8
48 5
36.9
42.4
42 8
448
52.3
54 6
58.5
615
67.5
78.2
83.3
801
79.0
86.1
85.3
84.6
84 5
84.1
85 8
87.3
87.5
88.2
89.6
90.4
90 9
91.9
92 7
93.7
961
100.0
105.4
111.5
116.1
119 8
122.3
126.8
136.2
142.3
147.6
154.2
159 6
166.6
178.4
186.9
191.8
43.0
42.7
44 2
48.1
47 9
47.9
47.8
50.3
55.5
61.8
66.4
68.2
72.5
77.3
79.5
78.3
77.4
78.8
83.3
86.0
89.6
89.6
90.6
92.5
93.0
94.3
95.9
97.2
100.0
103.2
107.2
112.7
118.6
119.9
123.8
137.7
150.6
165.5
177.2
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0
291.5
36.7
36.8
37 0
38.0
39 9
41.1
421
44.4
481
51.1
52 7
53 7
56.3
59 3
61.4
634
64.8
67 2
69.9
73.2
76.4
79.1
81.4
83 5
85.6
87 3
89.5
93.4
100.0
106.1
113.4
120.6
128.4
132.5
137.7
150.5
168.6
184.7
202.4
219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5
328.7
100.0
105.7
111.0
116.7
122.9
126.5
130.0
139.8
152.2
159.8
167.7
176.6
188.5
205.3
221.4
235.8
100.0
105.2
110.4
116.8
122.4
127.5
132.5
142.0
153.9
162.7
172.2
183.3
196.7
214.5
235.7
259.9
90.1
90.3
91.8
94 2
94 4
94 7
95 0
946
96 3
97.8
100.0
101.5
104.2
107.0
111.2
114.3
123.5
159.7
176.6
189.3
207.3
220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0
416.1
335.8
335.8
336.8
339.3
345.0
350.4
358.0
361.8
367.8
366.7
367.2
367.8
296.7
304.5
308.4
310.5
314.9
320.2
325.1
327.8
331.1
330.1
329.8
331.8
181.1
182.0
185.1
186.4
186.4
185.8
184.7
187.4
190.7
191.5
191.3
190.5
264.7
270.9
273.5
275.3
277.8
279.9
282.6
283.7
285.2
287.2
289.1
289.8
279.5
282.6
284.7
287.0
289.0
291.5
295.6
299.3
301.7
304.8
308.2
310.2
214.4
216.7
218.2
219.2
220.3
220.8
221.1
222.3
224.0
225.5
226.8
227.3
226.2
227.4
228.7
229.9
232.2
233.4
234.4
235.6
243.0
245.2
245.9
246.7
381.7
401.1
409.3
409.8
411.3
414.0
415.7
416.1
417.1
414.9
414.1
414.6
367.5
368.7
365.7
370.6
377.4
382.8
384.5
385.9
383.0
382.8
379.5
372.9
336.2
337.1
339.3
339.2
345.4
352.2
354.7
356.3
359.5
363.4
362.2
364.1
187.3
188.0
191.1
191.9
191.5
190.8
189.7
191.8
194.9
195.5
195.4
193.6
289.9
288.0
285.1
282.9
285.6
292.8
296.1
296.2
295.3
295.5
295.8
294.8
313.4
316.2
318.8
321.7
323.8
326.4
330.0
333.3
336.0
338.7
342.2
344.3
229.2
231.2
232.8
233.9
234.4
235.6
236,6
237.4
238.3
240.3
239.9
240.1
248.4
250.3
252.2
253.8
255.0
255.8
257.2
258.3
266.6
271.2
273.8
276.6
416.4
413.0
406.1
395.7
402.1
418.6
424.5
424.5
424.2
425.0
422.6
419.9
100.0
103 6
108.8
114.7
118 3
123.2
139.5
158.7
172.1
177.4
188.0
206 3
228.5
248.0
267.3
278.2
48.3
30.6
34.6
35.2
38 4
45.1
503
49.6
50.7
58.1
70.6
76.6
73.5
74.5
82.8
84.3
83.0
82.8
81.6
82 2
84.9
88.5
87.1
88.0
89.1
899
91.2
92 4
94.4
99.1
100.0
103.6
108.9
114.9
118.4
123.5
141.4
161.7
175.4
180.8
192.2
2114
234.5
254.6
274.6
285.7
52.2
52.4
53 7
56.2
56 8
58.1
59.1
60.6
65.2
69.8
70.9
72.8
77.2
78.7
80.8
81.7
82.3
83 6
86.2
87.7
88.6
90.2
90.9
917
92.7
93 8
94.9
97 2
100.0
104.0
110.4
118.2
123 4
128.1
133.7
148.8
164.5
174.6
186.5
202 8
227.6
263.3
293.5
314.7
76 0
54.1
56.0
562
57 2
58.5
58 5
58.6
588
59.2
611
65.1
68 0
704
73.2
762
80.3
83 2
84.3
859
87.5
89.1
90.4
91.7
92.9
94 0
95.0
959
96.9
98 2
100.0
102 4
105.7
110.1
1152
119.2
124.3
130.6
137 3
144.7
153.5
164 0
176.0
191.6
208.2
224.0
75.0
76.3
77.0
783
81.7
83.5
84.4
86.3
86.9
87 9
89.0
908
92.7
96.3
100.0
105.7
116.0
128.5
133.7
140.1
146.7
163.2
181.7
191.7
204.9
227,2
262.4
314.0
352.7
376.8
260.5
263.2
265.1
266.8
269.0
271.3
274.4
276.5
279.3
279.9
280.7
281.5
2614
263.7
265.0
265.7
265.4
266.5
268.9
270.1
270.7
270.3
269.9
270.5
268.6
270.8
272.2
272.9
272.5
273.6
276.2
277.4
278.0
277.6
277.1
277.8
279.1
280.9
282.6
284.8
288.5
292.2
297.0
299.7
303.7
303.5
304.2
305.2
200 9
201.9
203.0
204.2
205.9
206.8
207.8
210.3
211.9
213.6
215.0
216.5
282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
287.1
290.6
292.2
292.8
293.3
294.1
293.6
292.4
273.6
275.8
275.6
276.5
278.1
280.2
280.8
279.9
280.1
279.6
279.1
279.1
281.0
283.3
283.0
283.9
285.5
287.8
288.5
287.4
287.6
287.0
286.4
286.5
306.1
307.3
306.7
309.4
313.8
317.5
319.2
320.1
319.7
320.7
319.0
316.3
217.8
218.6
219.6
220.1
221.8
222.6
224.8
226.0
226.9
228.9
230.2
230.8
51.3
38.8
41.6
42.0
441
48.8
518
52.7
53.9
58.5
66.9
72.1
71.4
72.1
77.8
79.5
80.1
80.5
80.2
814
84.3
86.6
87.3
88.7
89.6
906
91.7
92 9
94.5
97 2
100.0
104.2
109.8
116.3
1213
125.3
133.1
147.7
161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
Energy4
1
Includes alcoholic beverages, not shown separately.
* Includes other items not shown separately. Series beginning 1967 not comparable with series for earlier years.
• Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and other utilities and public services.
4
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil coolant, etc.
Note.—Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
221
TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexes, selected expenditure classes, 1939-82
[1967-100]
Fuel and other utilities
Homeownersliip
Food and beverage >
Household fuels
Food
Year or month
Total1
Total
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1981;
Jan
Feb
Mar
At
home
Away
from
home
Total
Home
purchase
Financing,
taxes,
and
insurance
Maintenance
and
repair
Fuel
Total
Total
100.0
1083
123.7
142 3
143.5
150.8
160 6
181.1
201.9
212 8
227.2
257.8
308.9
396.0
472.5
511.4
71.2
72.4
74.1
77.2
80.5
81.8
83.2
84.6
85.9
86.5
87.7
89.5
91.3
95.2
100.0
106.1
115.0
124.0
133.7
140.7
151.0
171.6
187.6
199.6
214.7
233.0
256.4
285.7
314.4
334.1
83.0
83.5
85.1
87.3
89.9
91.7
93.8
95.9
97.1
97.3
98.2
98.4
98.3
98.8
100.0
101.3
103.6
107.6
115.0
120.1
126.9
150.2
167.8
182.7
202,2
216.0
239.3
278.6
319.2
350.8
100.0
101.4
103.4
107.9
115.3
120.1
128.4
160.7
183.8
202.3
228.6
247.4
286.4
349,4
407.0
446.2
37.1
38.2
40.5
43.1
45.2
47.1
48.0
51.3
58.4
68.6
70.3
72.7
76.5
78.0
81.5
81.2
82.3
85.9
90.3
88.7
89.8
89.2
91.0
91.5
93.2
92.7
94.6
97.0
100.0
103.1
105.6
110.1
117.5
118.5
136.0
214.6
235.3
250.8
283.4
298.3
403.1
556.0
675.9
667.9
34 6
35 2
384
451
503
496
50 7
581
70 6
76 6
73 5
74 5
82 8
84 3
83.0
82 8
81.6
82.2
84.9
88 5
87 1
88.0
891
89.9
91.2
92 4
94 4
coal,
and
bottled
gas
73 5
79 8
767
77 6
863
Other
utilities
Gas
(piped) and
public
and
servelecices
tricity
82.9
82.1
81.4
81.0
80.6
80.3
79.6
77.4
77.1
79.1
81.0
81.2
81.5
82.6
84.2
85.3
87.5
88.4
89.3
92.4
94.7
98.6
99.4
99.4
99.4
99.4
99.4
99.6
100.0
100.9
102.8
107.3
114.7
120.5
126.4
145.8
169.6
189.0
213.4
232.6
257.8
301.8
345.9
393.8
100.0
101.2
104.0
107.4
114.7
120.6
124.1
130.3
1371
145.4
152.0
158.3
159.5
165.2
181.0
200.2
100.0
1036
108.8
114 7
118.3
123.2
139 5
158.7
1721
177 4
188.0
206 3
228.5
2480
267.3
278.2
1000
103 6
108.9
114 9
118.4
123 5
1414
161.7
1754
180 8
192 2
2114
234.5
254 6
274.6
285.7
87.8
86.2
85.8
84.1
84.4
87.2
910
88 8
89.6
90 4
91.0
92.2
93 2
95.5
100 3
100.0
103 2
108.2
113 7
116.4
121.6
1414
162.4
175.8
179 5
190.2
210 2
232.9
251.5
269.9
279.2
261.4
263 7
265.0
265.7
265 4
266.5
Dc
e
268.9
270.1
270.7
270 3
2699
270.5
268.6
2708
272 2
272.9
272 5
273.6
276.2
277.4
278.0
277 6
2771
277.8
265.6
267.3
268.6
268.7
267 7
268.7
271.6
272.8
273.2
2721
2710
271.7
280.9
284.7
286.1
288.2
289 3
290.6
292.4
293.7
294.8
2962
297 2
297.7
335.8
335.8
336.8
339.3
345 0
350.4
358.0
361.8
367.8
366 7
367 2
367.8
266.2
263.0
261.1
260.7
263 0
266.6
271.4
272.6
274.5
272 5
270 2
270.5
435.2
437.1
441.1
447.1
458 3
467.2
480.0
488.3
501.8
5018
505 6
506.3
296.8
302.8
306.1
309.3
312.9
315.5
319.3
320.5
321.6
320.8
322.8
324.1
296.7
304.5
308.4
310.5
314.9
320.2
325.1
327.8
331.1
330.1
329.8
331.8
375.4
387.4
393.7
396.5
403.3
411.7
417.2
419.5
422.4
419.0
417 6
420.0
625.9
675.6
693.4
690.6
685.8
682.0
677.9
674.6
673.4
672.7
676.1
682.5
318.5
322 9
326.7
330.6
339.6
350.2
357.6
360.8
364.5
360.6
358.3
359.9
171.9
173.6
174.0
175.1
176.2
177.1
180.6
1837
187.4
189.4
190.7
191.9
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
«&.::
Jn
ue
July
Auc
Sept
Oct
Nov.....
Dec
273.6
275.8
275.6
276.5
278.1
280.2
280.8
279.9
2801
279 6
2791
279.1
281.0
283.3
283.0
283 9
285.5
287.8
288.5
287.4
287 6
287 0
286 4
286.5
275.3
278.0
277.1
277.9
279.8
282.6
282.8
280.8
280.6
279.4
278 3
277.8
299.8
301.2
302.4
303 6
304.8
305.9
307.6
308.7
309.8
310 7
3114
312.6
367.5
368.7
365.7
370.6
377.4
382.8
384.5
385.9
383.0
382.8
379.5
372.9
269.3
270.4
269.2
272.3
279.3
285.6
287.7
287.9
286.8
289.9
290.4
290.9
506.0
507.2
500.9
508.4
516.2
521.8
524.3
527.3
519.9
514.3
504.8
486.2
326.7
328.2
327.2
331.6
334.5
336.1
334.7
335.9
338.4
339.4
339.0
337.8
336.2
337.1
339.3
339.2
345.4
352.2
354.7
356.3
359.5
363.4
362.2
364.1
426.9
427.6
430.5
428.2
438.0
448.4
452.0
454.0
458.5
464.5
461.9
464.0
686.0
683.1
664.0
641.3
644.6
656.6
659.9
659.9
662.8
677.2
691.3
688.5
367.4
368.7
375.9
377.8
389.0
398.9
402.1
404.4
409.2
413.4
407.6
410.6
192.7
193.9
195.0
197.7
198.9
200.4
201.4
202.4
203.6
204.5
205.1
206.6
991
t :
:
:
June
July
Aug
1
S5v :::
-:
N
o
75.0
76.3
77.0
78.3
81.7
83.5
86.5
87.1
87.3
87.6
90.0
91.3
68.9
70.1
70.8
72.2
74.9
77.2
79 3
81.4
83.2
85.4
87.3
88.9
90.9
95.1
100.0
105.2
lll.G
119.9
126.1
131.1
141.4
159.4
174.3
186.1
200.3
218.4
242.9
267.0
291.0
306.5
844
913
86.3
86.9
87.9
89.0
90 8
92.7
96 3
100.0
105.7
116.0
128.5
133.7
140.1
146 7
163.2
181.7
1917
204.9
227.2
262.4
314.0
352.7
376.8
91.8
92.3
93.2
94.2
95 7
97.0
98 6
100.0
102 8
109.5
118 3
124.8
130.0
132 7
142.7
160.3
168 4
179.5
196.7
223.1
254.3
267.7
281.6
See next page for continuation of table.
222
TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexes, selected expenditure classes, 1939-82—Continued
[1967=100]
Transportation
Medical car
Private transportation
Year or month
Total
Total
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948 ..
..
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953 ..
.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968 ..
..
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 .
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mr
a
Ar
o
43.0
42.7
44.2
48.1
47.9
47.9
47.8
50.3
55.5
61.8
66.4
mr»
July
As
u
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Fb
e
Mar
Apr
NBW
June
July
Auo ..
.
Sept
Ot
c
Nv
o
Dc
e
:
Motor
fuel ^
Automobile
maintenance
and
repair
69.2
756
82.8
83.4
87.4
94.9
958
94.3
90 9
93.5
984
1015
105.9
104.5
104 5
104.1
103.5
103.2
1009
99.1
100.0
102 8
104.4
107 6
112.0
1110
111.1
117 5
127.6
135 7
1429
153.8
166.0
179 3
190 2
197.6
89.2*
75.9
71.8
69.1
77.4
80 2
89.5
83.6
869
94.8
96.0
100.1
994
97.0
100.0
(3)
103.1
104 3
110.2
110 5
117.6
122 6
146.4
167,9
182 8
186.5
201.0
2081
256 9
296.4
43.1
43.0
44.9
48.8
49.4
50.0
50.4
52.0
56.4
59.6
61.1
62.3
67.0
68.6
72.3
74.8
76.5
79.5
82.4
83 7
85.5
87.2
89.3
90.4
91.6
92.8
94.5
96.2
100.0
105 5
112.2
120.6
129.2
135.1
142.2
156.8
176.6
189.7
203 7
220.6
242.6
268 3
293 6
315.8
262.9
269 4
271.7
273 4
276.0
277.9
279.6
280 5
2819
283 9
285.8
286.5
185 3
184 8
182 9
1861
190.9
192.2
192 5
1919
1913
192 5
195.3
197.0
234.0
385.2
234 3
410.8
420 7
235 4
419 3
2391
416.5
245.2
414.4
252.9
412.9
260 3
411.7
266 9
272 8 2411 1
278 2
409 9
281.4
409.5
408.4
281.9
286 6
284 5
281.3
278.8
281.5
288.9
292.3
292.4
291.1
2911
2914
290.4
197 4
195 5
194.4
196 0
197 5
198.1
198.6
198 7
197 7
197 7
199 0
200.1
280.5
279 7
280.9
285.1
2914
298.2
302.4
304.4
304.6
306 7
310 5
312.6
44.2
43.6
45.9
52.3
51.4
51.4
51.3
54.3
61.5
68.2
72.3
72.5
75.8
80.8
82.4
80.3
78.9
80.1
84.7
87 4
91.1
90.6
91.3
93.0
93.4
94.7
96.3
97.5
100.0
1030
106.5
1111
116.6
117.5
121.5
136.6
149.8
164.6
1766
185.0
212.3
249 2
277 5
287.5
264.7
2709
273 5
275 3
277.8
279.9
282.6
283 7
285 2
287 2
289.1
289.8
289 9
2880
285.1
282.9
285 6
292.8
296.1
296.2
295.3
295 5
295 8
294.8
1
Used
cars
49.0
48.1
50.5
53.4
54.0
54.2
53.8
54.9
62.2
70.4
72.3
71.8
73.9
75.8
80.3
82.5
83.6
86.5
90.0
88 8
89.9
92.5
91.4
91.9
91.8
91.4
94 9
97.0
100.0
1014
104.7
105 6
106.3
107.6
118.1
159 9
170.8
177.9
188 2
196.3
265.6
3691
410 9
389.4
68.2
72.5
77.3
79.5
78.3
77.4
78.8
83.3
86 0
89.6
89.6
90.6
92.5
93.0
94.3
95.9
97.2
100.0
103 2
107.2
112 7
118.6
119.9
123.8
137.7
150.6
165.5
177 2
185.5
212.0
249 7
280 0
291.5
jur&iir: :::::
:::::
::::
New
cars
43.2
43.3
46.6
4061
399 2
384.1
366.9
370.6
392.4
400.2
398.4
394.2
390.7
3883
381.7
Other
Public
transportation
33.1
33.1
33.1
33.3
33.4
33.5
33.5
34.4
36.0
40.7
45.2
48.9
54.0
57.5
61.3
65.5
67.4
70.0
111
761
Total
Medical
care
commodities
Medical
care
services
103.4
1097
119.2
128.4
129.1
127.8
132.4
141.2
163.1
177.3
184.6
198.6
222 6
2413
257.8
78.3
81.0
84.6
87.4
88.5
90.1
91.9
95.2
100.0
104.6
112.7
128.5
137.7
143.4
144.8
148.0
158.6
174.2
182.4
187.8
200.3
251.6
312 0
346.0
36.7
36.8
37.0
380
39.9
411
42.1
44 4
48.1
511
52.7
53.7
563
59.3
614
63.4
64 8
67.2
699
73 2
76.4
79.1
81.4
83.5
85.6
87.3
89.5
93.4
100.0
1061
113.4
1206
128.4
132 5
137.7
1505
168.6
184.7
202 4
219.4
239.7
265 9
294 5
328.7
71.1
70.8
71.4
73 0
73.5
74 3
74.8
76 2
81.8
861
87.4
88.5
910
91.8
926
93.7
94 7
96.7
99 3
102 8
104.4
104.5
103.3
101.7
100.8
100.5
100.2
100.5
100.0
100 2
101.3
1036
105.4
105.6
105.9
109 6
118.8
126.0
1341
143.5
153.8
1681
186 5
205.7
32.5
32.5
32.7
33 7
35.4
36 9
37.9
401
43.5
46 4
48.1
49.2
517
55.0
57 0
58.7
60 4
62.8
655
687
72.0
74.9
77.7
80.2
82.6
84.6
87.3
92.0
100.0
107.3
116.0
124 2
133.3
138.2
144.3
159.1
179.1
197.1
216 7
235.4
258.3
287 4
318 2
356.0
282.7
285.4
287.7
289 0
290.8
291.9
293.5
295.5
298.7
3013
302.8
304.1
232.4
234.2
234.7
236.3
238.9
241.0
242.9
243.0
244.2
247 5
249.5
250.6
286.4
288.1
293.9
297.2
297.7
303.9
323.1
326.5
329.1
330.8
333.2
333.8
279.5
282.6
284.7
287 0
289.0
291.5
295.6
299.3
301.7
304 8
308.2
310.2
176.7
179.2
180.7
182.4
184.7
186.3
187.7
189.4
190.8
192.1
193.1
194.9
302.1
305.2
307.5
309.8
311.7
314.4
319.2
323.4
326.1
329.7
333.7
335.7
305.5
307 7
310.2
311.9
313.6
316.0
318.0
319.2
320.6
321.9
322.3
323.1
253.3
253 4
254.5
255.1
255.7
258.7
260.8
260.8
260.0
261.4
260.7
259.6
334.9
336.8
336.7
339.3
342.1
345.6
347.2
348.1
353.3
356.3
356.0
355.6
313.4
316 2
318.8
321.7
323.8
326.4
330.0
333.3
336.0
338.7
342.2
344.3
195.9
197.7
200.0
202.4
204.1
205.6
206.5
208.2
209.9
211.6
212.9
213.7
339.4
342.4
345.1
348.0
350.2
353.0
357.3
361.0
364.0
366.9
371.0
373.4
Includes alcoholic beverages, not shown separately.
Includes direct pricing of diesel fuel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
3 Not available.
Note.—Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2
TABLE B-54.—Consumer price indexes, commodities, services, and special groups, 1939-82
[1967-100]
Services
Commodities
Special indexes
All
items
less
energy
All
items
less
food
and
energy
Energy 1
83.9
86.3
87.0
83 3
85.2
87.0
90.1
90.3
91.8
Commodities less food
Year or
month
All
items
All
commodities
Food
All
All
Nonservices
Durable durable
Rent
Services
less
rent
All
items
less
food
1939
41.6
40.2
34.6
47.7
48.5
44.3
43.5
56.0
38.1
47.2
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
420
352
48 0
50.4
56.0
58.4
61.6
64.1
481
44 7
46.7
43 6
44.2
456
53.8
56 6
58.6
581
684
629
491
38,1
38,6
40.3
42.1
44.2
45.1
741
46.4
47 5
48.2
71.4
78.3
70.6
76 6
73.5
76.8
82.7
81.5
72.2
77 8
76.3
51.1
54 3
56.9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
721
77.8
79 5
788
85.9
87 0
86.7
74 5
82.8
84 3
83.0
762
82.0
58.7
61.8
964
824
645
80 2
81.4
84 3
86.6
87.3
85.1
85.9
88.6
90.6
90.7
95.7
93 3
91.5
91.5
94 4
95.9
97.3
83.1
83 5
83 5
85.3
876
88.2
89.3
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
88.7
89.6
90.6
91.7
92.9
....
94.5
97.2
100 0
104.2
„ 109.8
93.1
93.4
94.1
94.8
95.6
96.2
97.5
100.0
103.7
108.1
96.7
96.6
97.6
97.9
98.8
98.4
98.5
100 0
103.1
107.0
907
91.2
91.8
92.7
93.5
94.8
97.0
1000
104.1
108.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
116.3
121.3
125.3
133.1
147.7
161.2
170 5
181.5
195.4
217.4
91.5
92.0
92.8
93.6
94.6
95.7
98.2
100.0
103.7
108.4
113.5
117.4
120.9
129.9
145.5
158.4
165.2
174.7
187.1
208.4
81.6
82.2
84.9
88.5
87.1
88.0
89.1
89.9
91.2
92.4
94.4
99.1
100.0
103.6
108.9
81.4
87.5
88 3
88.5
87 5
86.9
87.8
90.5
91.5
92.7
80.3
86,2
87.4
884
95.1
114.9
118.4
123.5
141.4
161.7
175.4
1808
192.2
211.4
234.5
112.5
116.8
119.4
123.5
136.6
149.1
1566
165.1
174.7
195.1
111.8
116.5
118.9
121.9
130.6
145.5
154 3
163.2
173.9
191.1
113.1
117.0
119.8
124.8
140.9
151.7
158 3
166.5
174.3
198.7
67.3
69 5
70.9
72.7
75.6
78.5
80.8
83.5
85.2
86.8
88.5
90.2
92.2
95.8
100 0
105.2
112.5
121.6
128.4
133.3
139.1
152.1
166.6
180 4
194.3
210.9
234.2
56.2
57.2
58.5
58.5
58.6
58.8
59.2
61.1
65.1
68.0
70.4
73.2
76 2
80.3
83 2
84 3
85.9
87.5
89.1
90.4
91.7
92.9
94.0
95.0
95.9
96.9
98.2
100 0
102.4
105.7
47 3
48.7
516
51.8
52 7
53.9
58 5
66.9
40 6
43.3
49.6
54.0
54.7
56.3
62 4
75.0
110.1
115.2
119.2
124.3
130.6
137.3
144 7
153.5
164.0
176.0
1980
1981
1982
246.8
272.4
289.1
233.9
253.6
263.8
254.6
274.6
285.7
222.0
241.2
250.9
210.4
227.1
241.1
235.2
257.5
261.6
270.3
305.7
333.3
191.6
208.2
224.0
123.7
130.8
135.9
141.8
156.0
171.9
186 8
201.6
219.4
244.9
285.1
324.3
354.2
2605
283.2
265.1
266.8
269.0
271.3
268.6
270.8
272.2
272.9
272.5
273.6
276.2
277.4
278,0
277 6
277.1
277.8
232.4
238.0
239.6
241.1
2210
220.3
219.8
221.1
223.9
226.6
2009
201.9
203.0
204.2
205.9
206.8
304.2
306.9
309.5
312.8
317.4
321.9
242.6
243.8
245.5
245.9
246.2
246.5
229.6
230.9
232.6
232 9
233.2
233.7
2453
253.2
257.5
258.1
258.2
258.0
257.5
258.4
260.3
260 7
261.1
261.1
287,7
290.1
292.5
295.4
299.6
303.5
274.4
276.5
279.3
279 9
280.7
281.5
245.4
248.3
249.8
250.8
251.9
253.2
255.0
256.2
257.7
257.9
258.0
258.4
308.8
312.2
317.3
318 6
320.6
321.8
207.8
210.3
211.9
2136
215.0
216.5
282.5
2834
2831
284.3
287.1
290.6
258.8
259.5
258.8
258.9
261.5
265.1
281.0
283 3
283 0
283.9
285.5
287.8
233.4
233 7
2335
235.8
239.8
243.2
266.5
266.4
266.6
267.5
267.8
267.7
288.5
287.4
287.6
287.0
286.4
286.5
260.2
2601
258 4
255.0
256.2
261.2
263.0
263.6
264.6
265.7
266.1
264.7
323.9
325 3
325 5
328.4
331.8
334.9
337.0
338.9
339.7
340.3
338.6
335.6
217.8
2186
219 6
220.1
221.8
222.6
292,2
292.8
293.3
294.1
293.6
292.4
245.9
246 0
245.2
245.0
247.8
251,9
253.5
253.8
253.9
255.4
256.0
255.8
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct.
Nov
D€C
44.1
488
721
801
805
.
804
859
38.4
451
50.3
496
50.7
828
51.4
584
60.3
65 9
70.9
244.7
244.6
244.1
246.0
246.6
247.3
224.8
226.0
226.9
228.9
230.2
230.8
467
49.0
51.9
54.5
56.0
59.3
62 2
64.8
667
68.2
70.1
73.3
76.4
79.0
81.9
83.9
85.5
87.3
89.2
91.5
95.3
100.0
105.7
113.8
521
53.6
55 7
56.9
59 4
64.9
696
70.3
711
75.7
77 5
79.0
79 5
79.7
81.1
83.8
85.7
87.3
88.8
89.7
90.8
92.0
93.2
94.5
96.7
100.0
104.4
110.1
116.7
122.1
125.8
130.7
143.7
157.1
167 5
178.4
191.2
213.0
83.3
89.3
90.4
91.6
92.9
94.3
97.3
100.0
104.4
110.3
883
89.3
90.5
91.6
93.0
94.3
96.6
100 0
104.6
110.7
94.2
94.4
94.7
95.0
94.6
96.3
97.8
100.0
101.5
104.2
117.0
122.0
126.1
133.8
146.9
160.2
169.2
179.8
193.8
213.1
117.6
123.1
126.9
131.3
142.2
155.3
165 5
175.8
188.7
207.0
107,0
111.2
114.3
123.5
159.7
176.6
189.3
207.3
220.4
275.9
244.0
270.6
288.4
238.0
261.7
279.3
232.8
257.1
276.1
361.1
410.0
416.1
251.2
252.5
245.7
246.8
248.1
260.2
263.5
265.6
268.6
269 4
270.4
271.1
255.6
381.7
401.1
409.3
409,8
411.3
414.0
328.1
331.7
337.5
338 7
340.8
342.0
257.6
260.4
262.3
264.2
267.0
269.5
272.7
274.9
278.2
2790
280.1
280.8
259.0
261.3
264.8
2659
267.2
267.9
415.7
416.1
417.1
414.9
414,1
414.6
344.2
345.7
345.7
349.1
352.8
356.5
358.5
360.5
361.3
361.6
359.3
355.5
281.4
2821
281 7
282.9
286.0
289.7
291.5
292.5
292.9
294.0
293.6
292.1
272.1
273.4
273.6
275.7
278.3
280.7
268.5
269.5
269.8
272.2
274.9
277.3
278.7
279,8
280.4
281.5
281,2
279.9
416.4
413.0
406.1
395.7
402.1
418.6
282.0
282.7
283.1
284.0
283.6
282.5
424.5
424.5
424.2
425.0
422.6
419.9
1
fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.
Note.—Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
224
TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer price indexes, commodities and services, 1948-82
[Percent change]
Commodities
Alt items
Year or month
Dec.
to
Dec.1
27
18
5.8
5.9
.9
.6
-.5
.4
2.9
30
1.8
1.5
1.5
7
1.2
16
1.2
1.9
3.4
3.0
4.7
6.1
55
3.4
34
8.8
12.2
7.0
48
6.8
9.0
13.3
12 4
8.9
3.9
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960. .
1961
1962
1963
1964 .
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
Total
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec.1
7.8
10
1.0
7.9
2.2
.8
.5
-.4
1.5
3.6
2.7
.8
1.6
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.7
2.9
2.9
4.2
5.4
59
4.3
33
6.2
11.0
9.1
5.8
6.5
7.7
11.3
13 5
10.4
6.1
1.7
41
7.7
5.9
-.6
-1.4
_.4
2.6
2.6
1.3
.6
1.1
o
1.0
14
.8
1.6
2.5
2.5
3.8
5.5
40
2.9
34
10.4
12.7
6.3
33
6.1
89
13.0
111
6.0
3.6
Food
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec.1
Year
to
year
7.2
-2 6
.6
9.0
1.3
-0.8
-3 7
9.6
7.4
-1.1
-1.3
-1.6
-.9
3.1
2.8
2.2
-.8
3.1
= 9
1.5
19
1.4
3.4
3.9
1.2
4.3
7.2
2.2
4.3
47
20.1
12.2
6.5
6
8.0
11.8
10.2
10.2
4.3
3.1
8.5
40
1.4
11.1
1.8
-1.5
-.2
-1.4
.7
3.3
4.2
-1.6
1.0
1.3
.9
1.4
1.3
2.2
5.0
.9
3.6
5.1
5.5
3.0
4.3
14.5
14.4
8.5
3.1
6.3
10.0
10.9
8.6
7.9
4.0
-.9
-.9
.9
3.1
2.3
.1
.9
.5
.9
.9
1.1
1.2
2.6
1.8
3.7
4.5
4.7
3.4
3.0
7.4
12.0
8.9
4.3
5.8
7.1
11.4
12.2
8.4
4.0
Services
Commodities
less food
Dec.
to
Dec 1
5.3
48
5.7
4.6
~.2
-1.4
0
2.5
2.2
.8
1.5
-.3
.6
.7
1.2
.7
1.9
3.1
3.7
4.5
4.8
2.3
2.5
5.0
13.2
6.2
5.1
4.9
7.7
14.3
11.5
6.7
3.8
Year
to
year
77
15
-.1
7.5
.9
.2
-1.1
_ 7
1.0
31
1.1
1.3
.4
3
.7
7
.8
.6
14
2.6
37
4.2
41
3.8
22
3.4
10.6
9.2
50
5.4
58
11.7
13 8
8.6
4.0
Dec.
to
Dec.1
61
3,6
3.6
5.2
4.6
4.2
1.9
23
3.1
4.5
2.7
3.7
2.7
19
1.7
23
1.8
2.6
4.9
4.0
6.1
7.4
82
4.1
36
6.2
11.3
8.1
7.3
7.9
9.3
13.7
\A2
13.0
4.3
Energy 2
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec.1
63
48
3.2
53
4.4
43
3.3
20
2.5
40
3.8
2.9
3.3
20
1.9
20
1.9
2.2
39
4.4
5.2
6.9
81
5.6
38
4.4
9.3
9.5
83
7.7
8.5
11.0
15.4
13.1
9.0
-0.7
4.3
1.5
-11
2.1
- 8
-2
2.0
1.8
1.4
1.7
3.1
45
3.1
2.8
16.8
21.6
11.6
6.9
7.2
8.0
37.4
18.1
11.9
1.3
Year
to
year
0.2
1.7
2.6
2
.3
3
-.4
1.8
1.6
2.2
1.5
2.7
2.7
3.9
2.8
8.0
29.3
10.6
7.2
9.5
6.3
25.2
30.9
13.5
1.5
Change from preceding month
SeaSeaSeaSeaSeaSeaUnad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally
justed ad- justed adjusted adjusted ad- justed adjusted adjusted
justed
justed
justed
justed
Justed
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mr
a
Ar
D
IvTay
June
July
Aus
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar.
Ar
p
My
a
June
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
.
0.8
1.0
7
.6
.8
.9
1.1
8
1.0
.2
.3
.3
0.8
1.0
.6
.4
.8
.7
1.1
.8
1.1
.4
.5
,4
0.7
1.2
6
.4
.4.
.5
,7
5
.6
4
.3
-.1
.4
10
1.2
6
.2
.2
.3
_ 2
-.4
3
.2
-.3
2
.3
!o
,2
~\o
1.0
1.0
6
.3
.2
.5
10
1.4
5
-.0
3
0.6
1.1
,4
0
A
.8
.6
A
2
.3
.1
-is
19
1.3
6
.0
.2
.6
.3
-.0
'.3
1
0.4
.6
.3
~X
A
1.0
4
.2
-.1
-.2
\\
2
.7
.5
0.6
1.3
7
.4
.7
.6
.6
5
.3
.1
.1
.2
.1
.1
0.7
12
5
1
.5
.5
8
6
.8
.4
.2
.4
12
.8
-.1
7
.6
-.4
.3
.8
.6
.1
3
- 2
.0
-.3
-.1
1.1
1.7
6
.1
.0
.6
.2
-.1
1
0
-.5
-.5
.9
1.5
8
.2
.2
.8
.3
.2
0.8
5
.e
.8
2
-.4
.1
-2
.0
.2
.1
1
1.1
8
8
1.0
1.4
1.3
1.7
11
1.6
.4
.6
,4
7
.4
.1
.9
1.0
.9
.6
.6
.2
.2
—5
-.9
1.1
8
8
1.0
1.3
1.1
17
12
1.5
.5
.9
.5
3.1
5.1
20
5
4
-.8
-1.7
= 2.6
1.6
4.1
1.4
0
-.1
.2
-.6
-.6
!o
.9
.9
.8
6
.6
.1
.2
-.1
-.8
!4
.7
.4
1
.2
2
.1
Changes from December to December are based on unadjusted indexes.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.
Note—Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2
225
TABLE B-56.—Changes in special consumer price indexes, 1938-82
[Percent change]
All items
Year or month
Dec.
to
Dec.1
All items less
energy
All items less
food
Year
to
Year
Dec.
to
Dec.1
Year
to
Year
Year
to
Year
Dec.
to
Dec.1
All items less
food and
energy
Dec.
to
Dec.1
Year
to
Year
All iterns less
food,<Jnergy,
and home
purcha seand
fina ice 1
Dec.
to
Dec.1
Year
to
Year
All items
Dec.
to
Dec.1
Year
to
Year
2.3
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
18
1.5
15
7
12
16
12
19
3.4
30
47
6.1
5.5
3.4
3.4
8.8
12.2
7.0
48
6.8
90
13.3
27
.8
16
10
11
12
13
17
2.9
29
4.2
5.4
5.9
4,3
3.3
6.2
11.0
9.1
58
6.5
77
11.3
16
2.3
10
1.1
12
1.6
10
1.6
3.3
3.5
4.9
5.7
6.5
3.1
3.0
5.6
12.2
7.1
6.2
6.3
8.5
14.0
2.3
1.9
17
1.0
12
1.3
13
1.4
2.3
3.4
4.4
5.5
6.0
4.6
3.0
3.9
9.9
9.3
6.6
6.5
7,2
11.4
19
1.4
14
.8
12
1.8
13
1.9
3.5
31
4.9
6.4
5.6
3.3
3.5
8.3
11.5
6.7
4.6
6.8
9.2
11.1
29
.8
15
11
12
1.3
14
15
3.2
28
4.4
5.7
6.1
4.3
3.4
6.1
9.8
9.1
56
6.3
7.8
10.0
18
2.2
8
1.5
11
1.8
12
15
3.3
39
5.1
6.1
6.6
3.1
3.0
4.7
11.3
6.7
61
6.4
85
11.3
2.1
15
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.4
2.4
3.5
4.6
5.8
6.2
4.7
3.1
3.5
8.3
9.2
6.6
6.2
7.3
9.7
4.6
5.2
5.7
3,4
2.9
4.0
11.1
6.3
6.8
5.5
6.9
7.5
4.5
4.9
5.2
5.0
27
3.3
7.8
8.7
6.8
6.1
6,0
7.3
3.9
5.2
4.5
3.5
3.3
8.5
11.1
6.6
51
6.3
79
10.8
3.7
4.4
49
4.3
3.1
6.2
10.1
8.3
57
6.4
68
9.6
1980
1981
1982
12.4
89
3.9
13.5
104
6.1
12.9
9.9
4.0
14.6
10.9
6.6
11.7
86
4.2
11.7
10 0
6.7
12.1
96
4.5
12.5
10.4
7.4
9.9
9.4
6.0
9.0
9.5
7.6
10.8
8.5
5.0
11.2
95
6.1
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Change from preceding month
1981;
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
My
a
June
July
Aug...::::::::::::..
Sept .........
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
(Jay..:
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Dec
7
0.8
10
s
.8
.9
1.1
.8
10
.'3
.3
.4
.3
.4
10
1.2
.6
.2
2
3
= 2
= .4
0.8
10
.6
4
.8
7
1.1
.8
11
.4
.5
0.8
11
.3
.2
- 3
.2
10
1.0
.6
2
5
1
.2
.2
-.1
7
1.1
.9
1.2
.8
12
0.9
10
7
5
.9
.8
1.3
.8
12
.6
.4
.2
1*1
1.3
.6
4
— 1
= .5
-2
.2
.2
10
1.2
7
.4
.1
5
1
Unadjusted
Seasonally
justed
0.6
5
.5
.9
9
1.3
.8
11
.3
.4
.3
.4
.5
.8
9
.9
.5
.2
3
- 1
•=.3
1
2
3
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
0.5
4
0.6
.4
0.5
.8
.8
1.2
1.0
1.3
.9
13
.4
.5
.3
.6
1.0
1.1
1.4
1.0
1.1
.5
.4
.'9
.8
.2
.4
.1
.9
10
.9
.5
.4
,2
.4
-.1
=.5
.3
0
.8
.9
.9
.6
.0
.4
-.1
.9
.8
1.1
7
.4
,3
,4
.6
7
.6
.6
.4
.4
.8
.6
.3
0.6
.8
.6
.8
7
.8
1.0
.8
.9
.8
.6
.7
0.9
13
.8
.6
.6
.6
.8
7
.8
.5
.4
.5
.6
.5
.6
.4
.4
7
2
.5
.4
.4
.2
7
1.0
7
.2
.5
.4
.1
0.7
10
.8
.4
.5
.8
7
6
.6
.4
.1
„, 2
1.0
8
.3
6
4
.3
Changes from December to December are based on unadjusted indexes.
All items less food, energy, and home purchase and financing, taxes, and insurance; estimated series.
An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homeownership costs. Effective with data for January 1983, the
consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate a rental equivalence measure.
Note.—Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
226
TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexes by stage of processing, 1947-82
[1967=100]
Finished goods
Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Consumer foods
Year or month
Total
finished
goods
Consumer goods
Total
Crude
Processed
74.0
799
77.6
79 0
86.5
86 0
85.1
85.3
85 5
87.9
911
93.2
93.0
93.7
93 7
94 0
93.7
941
95.7
98.8
100 0
102.8
106.6
110.3
113 7
117.2
127 9
147.5
163 4
170.6
1817
195.9
217.7
247.0
269 8
280.6
82.8
90 4
83.1
84 7
95.2
943
89.4
88.7
86.5
86.3
89 3
94.5
90.1
92.1
917
92.5
91.4
91.9
95.4
101.6
100 0
103.6
110.0
113.5
115 3
121.7
146 4
166.9
1810
180.4
189 9
207.2
226.2
239.5
253 6
259.3
99.4
107.1
101.3
92.2
105.9
112.8
105.2
94.7
98.8
98.7
97.4
103.5
94.3
100.6
96.1
97.0
95.5
98.2
98.6
104.8
100.0
107.5
116.0
116.3
115.8
121.2
1607
180.8
1812
193.9
201.0
216.8
233.1
237.2
263.8
252.5
80.2
87.6
80.1
83.4
93.2
91.3
86.7
87.6
84.4
84.3
87.9
93.1
89.5
90.7
90.9
91.7
90.7
90.8
94.9
101.0
100.0
103.0
108.9
113.1
115.1
121.7
143 9
164.6
1813
177.8
187 3
204.6
223.8
237.8
250.6
257.7
260.9
263 3
266 0
268.5
269.6
270 5
251.0
2513
252 6
251.9
252.8
253 8
257.9
265.6
279 7
279.3
263.1
258.9
Sect
Oct
Nov
Dec
2718
271 5
2715
274 3
274.7
275.4
257 6
256 3
256 2
254 0
252.7
252.9
1982: >
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
277.9
277.9
277 3
277 3
277 8
279.9
2817
282 3
2814
2841
284 9
285.1
1947
1948..
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973.
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 *
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mr
a
Ar
o
Sri™:::: :::::
:::":
:::::
:;:::
June.
July
:.:: :..
.:. :::
July
.
"
.
Aug......
Ot
c
Nv
o
Dec
Total
Durable
Capital
Non- equipment
durable
finished
consumer
goods
100.0
102.6
105.4
109.1
113.1
115.4
120.1
139.3
156 2
166.1
177 7
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
285.7
79.0
84.0
82.2
83.5
89.5
88.3
89.1
89.4
90.1
92.3
94.6
94.7
95.9
96.3
96.2
96.0
96.0
95.9
96.6
98.1
100.0
102.1
104.6
107.7
111.4
113.5
118.6
138.6
1531
162.6
174 3
186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
287.8
74.6
79.7
81.8
82.7
88.2
88.9
89.6
90.3
91.2
94.3
97.1
98.4
99.6
99.2
98 8
98.3
97.8
98.2
97.9
98.5
100.0
102.2
104.0
106.9
110.8
113.3
115.4
125.9
138 2
144.5
152.8
166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
226.7
80.7
85.8
82.3
83 6
90.0
87 8
88.6
88.9
89.4
91.1
93.2
92.6
94.0
94.7
94 7
94.8
95.1
94.8
95.9
97.8
1000
102.2
105.0
108.3
111.7
113.6
120.5
146.8
163 0
174.8
189.3
200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6
333.5
248.4
247.9
2481
247.4
249.8
251.3
262.4
265.5
268 7
272,1
273.3
274.1
265.1
268.5
272 5
276.1
277.0
277.7
214.9
215.1
214 0
216.6
218.1
218.2
302.7
308.4
316 0
320.4
321.0
322.0
254.6
258 1
260.8
262.5
263.8
262.5
265.0
268.2
270.6
271.5
272.3
262.7
256 9
253 5
253 8
260.0
273.9
255.0
254 2
254 4
252 0
249.9
249.0
274.7
274.6
274 7
2791
280.0
280.9
277.9
277.7
277 9
2816
282.4
283.2
218.1
218.3
215 8
224 5
224.7
225.4
322.5
322.1
324 2
324 3
325.4
326.3
265.4
265.8
265 3
2715
273.0
274.1
273.5
273.0
273.1
2751
275.2
275.8
256.4
258.2
2571
2600
262 3
263.4
280.6
282.5
263.3
266.6
259.9
254.7
252.1
254.0
254.5
257.3
260.3
262.0
283.0
282.4
281.9
281.1
281.0
283.4
285.2
284.9
284.0
282.3
281.8
284.8
226.2
224.0
223.9
224.1
225.0
225.9
329.3
330.3
328.8
325.7
324.3
328.7
276.2
275.0
275.8
277.2
278.1
279.2
278.3
278.6
217.1
280.1
260.6
259 7
259 9
257 8
257 6
258.2
241.0
239.2
227.8
232.0
235.6
247.2
260.2
259.4
260.6
258.0
257.4
257.1
286.7
287.9
286.6
290.8
291.9
292.0
288.8
290.2
289.1
293.3
294.6
294.3
226.7
227.5
223.2
231.1
230.8
231.5
335.3
337.2
338.4
339.7
342.4
341.4
280.2
280.7
279.5
283.8
284.0
285.1
282.1
282.8
282.0
284.2
285.2
285.1
See next page for continuation of table.
Total
227
55.4
60 4
63.4
649
71.2
72 4
73.6
74.5
76 7
82.4
87 5
89.8
91.5
91.7
918
92.2
92.4
93.3
94.4
96.8
100 0
103.5
106.9
112.0
116.6
119.5
123.5
141.0
162 5
173.4
184.6
199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
279.6
80.5
865
82.5
83 9
91.8
90 7
89.2
89.1
88.5
89.8
92.4
94.4
93.6
94.5
943
94.6
94.1
94.3
96.1
99.4
100 0
102.7
106.6
109.9
112.9
116.6
129.2
149.3
163.6
169.7
180.7
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
280.9
nil
277.3
TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexes by stage of processing,
1947-82—Continued
[1967-100]
Intermediate materials, supplies, and components
Year or month
Total
Foods
and
feeds3
Materials and
components
Other
firolc
For
manufacturing
Crude materials for further processing
Processed
For
construction
and
lubricants
tainers
Supplies
Total
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
Other
Total
Fuel
Other
1947
1948
1949
72.4
78.3
75.2
70.0
761
74.2
72.1
77 8
74.5
66.0
73.1
73.2
85.5
96.9
88.2
66.8
69.8
70.1
77.5
810
76.3
101.2
1109
96.0
111.7
120 8
100.3
66.6
787
78.3
90.6
1007
91.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
78.6
88.1
35.5
86.0
86.5
77 7
87.0
84 3
85.3
85.7
781
88.5
84 8
86.2
86.3
77 0
84.3
83 7
85.1
85.5
89.9
93.9
92 8
93.4
93.3
72.0
84.5
79.9
80.0
81.5
78 9
88.8
88 8
84.3
86.3
104 6
120.1
110 3
101.9
101.0
107 6
124.5
117 2
104.9
104.9
77 9
79.4
79 9
82.7
79.0
104 7
120.7
104 6
100.1
98.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
88.1
92.0
94.1
94.3
95.6
88.3
92.6
95.0
94.8
96.4
88.4
92.6
94.8
95.2
96.5
88.9
93.5
94.0
94.0
96.6
93.3
96.2
101.9
96.0
95.6
82.6
88.6
92.5
94.7
94.2
84.8
87.1
88.0
90.0
91.2
97.1
97.6
99.8
102.0
99.4
95.1
93.1
97.2
103.0
96.2
78.8
84.4
89.2
90.3
91.9
103.8
107.6
106.2
102.2
105.8
I960
1961
1962
1963::.:..:
1964
95.6
95.0
94.9
95.2 :::::::::::::
95.5
96.8
95.5
95.3
95.0
95.6
96.5
95.3
94.7
94.9
95.9
95.9
94,6
94.2
94.5
95.4
98.2
99.4
99.0
98.1
96.0
95.5
94.7
95.9
94.7
94.0
90.7
91.8
93.8
95.2
94.3
97.0
96.5
97.5
95.4
94.5
92.8
92.6
92.1
93.2
92.8
101.4
102.5
102.0
100.7
102.4
95.1
93.8
95.7
92.9
90.8 :;;:::;::;:::
96.8
1966::::::::::::::::::: 99.2
1967
100.0
1968
102.3
1969
105.8
1000
99.4
102.7
96.9
98.9
100 0
102.5
106.1
97.4
99.3
1000
102.2
105.8
96.2
98.8
100 0
105.0
110.8
97.4
99.2
1000
97.6
98.5
95.8
98.4
100 0
102.4
106.3
95.2
99.4
100 0
101.0
102.8
99.3
105.7
1000
101.6
108.4
97.1
105.9
100 0
101.3
109.3
100 0
102.2
106.8
93.5
96.3
100.0
102.3
106.6
104.5
106.7
1000
102.1
106.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
109.9
114.1
118.7
131.6
162.9
1091
111.7
118.5
1684
200.2
109 9
114.3
118.9
1281
159.5
1100
112.8
117.0
127 7
162.2
112,6
119.7
126.2
136 7
161.6
105.0
115.2
118.9
1315
199.1
111.4
116.6
121.9
1292
152.2
1080
111.0
1156
1406
154.5
1123
115.1
127.6
174 0
196.1
1120
114.2
127.5
180 0
189.4
112.7
117.0
128.0
162 5
208.9
122.6
139.0
148.7
164 5
219.4
109.8
110.7
121.9
1615
205.4
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
180.0
189.1
201.5
215.6
243.2
195.3
1853
190.5
203.1
226.1
178.6
1894
202.3
216.5
244.4
178.7
185 4
195.4
208.7
234.4
176.4
188.4
203.4
224.7
247.4
233.0
2501
282.5
295.3
364.8
171.4
180 2
188.3
202.8
226.8
168.1
1790
188.7
198.5
218.2
196.9
202 7
209.2
234.4
274.3
191.8
190,2
192.1
216.2
247.9
206.9
228.5
245.0
272.3
330.0
271.5
305.3
372.1
426.6
507.6
188.3
206.7
212.2
233.1
284.5
1980
1981
1982 l
280.3
306.0
310.4
252.6
250,3
239.6
282 3
310.1
315.7
265 7
286.1
290.1
268 3
287.6
293.5
503 0
595.4
591.8
254 5
276,1
285.5
244 5
263.8
272.2
304 6
329.0
319.5
259.2
257.4
247.8
401.0
482.3
474.0
615.0
751.2
866.3
346.1
413.7
376.9
296.1
298.3
302.0
305.8
306.7
307.2
2709
261.3
255.6
254.9
253.1
253.2
298 0
301.0
305.4
309.5
310.7
311.2
279 6
280.3
281.6
284.1
285.1
285.8
279 2
280.3
282.7
288.0
288.5
289.6
5519
569.8
598.3
608.5
608.7
605.7
264.6
268.2
270.9
274.3
276.4
277.2
257 8
257.8
258.9
262.4
264.0
264.6
328 0
336.5
334.2
336.3
334.4
335.4
270 7
267,1
262,1
263.5
260.6
264.3
450.1
484.9
488.4
492.1
492.4
487.4
677.4
697.7
703.6
716.6
73B.4
759,2
391.0
427.9
430,9
432.5
428.3
418.1
308.5
310.1
309.7
309.4
309.0
309.4
251.1
250.2
243.5
239.3
235 2
235.2
312.7
314.5
314.6
314.6
314 5
314.9
287.9
289.8
290.2
290.2
289 5
289.3
290.4
290.7
290.0
290.1
290.2
291.1
602.0
607.8
601.4
596.9
595.1
598.1
278.8
280.3
280.6
280.9
280.6
280.2
266.0
266.1
267 2
268.3
337.3
333.0
327.4
319 9
313 9
311.5
267.2
261.8
253.4
245.7
238 3
233.7
487.2
485.3
486.0
479.2
476.3
478.6
781.2
766.7
788.7
779.0
792.5
813.0
413.1
413.9
410.2
404.1
397.8
396.2
311.0
311.1
310.6
309.9
309.8
309.9
238.8
239.4
237.7
240.9
2450
245.1
316.4
316.4
316.0
315.1
314 6
314.7
290.4
290.9
290.4
290.6
2914
289.8
292.0
293.0
293.3
294.0
293 7
294.5
604.4
596.8
593.0
579.9
570.9
581.1
282.5
285.5
286.3
287.0
287.0
286.5
269.8
270.4
270,6
272.1
2734
273.4
318.4
321.6
320.0
322.6
328 3
325.6
242.6
248.3
247.9
254.4
262 6
259.9
481.5
479.3
475.2
469.9
470 2
467.7
812.9
824.5
839.7
851.2
8648
C83.9
399.5
3918
387.1
378.8
376 6
370.0
311.1
310.8
310.7
310.0
310.1
310.2
243.6
240.2
238 4
234 8
234.6
235.4
316.1
316.0
316 0
315 5
315.7
315.7
289.2
288.7
290 2
289 5
288.9
288.7
294.3
293.5
293.4
293 2
293.0
294.5
600.7
603.8
593.2
590 2
594.3
593.6
286.3
285.4
285.5
285.1
284.7
284.6
273.1
272.6
272 5
272 3
273.0
273.2
323.4
319.8
316 3
312 2
313.4
312.6
255.5
249.6
242.9
236 3
236.3
237.0
469.8
471.0
474.3
475 4
479.0
475.0
901.3
906.9
926.3
919.4
955.3
949.5
369.2
369.5
369.6
372.2
369.5
366.0
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Nov
Dec
1982:»
Jan .
Feb
Mar
Apr
My
a
June::;::::::::::::
July
Sent
Oct
Nov
Dec.
1
Data have been revised through August 1982 to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents. All data are
subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
* Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
228
TABLE B-58.—Producer price indexes by stage of processing, special groups, 1974-82
[1967=100]
Finished goods
Intermediate materials, supplies,
and components
Excluding food and
energy
Year or month
Total
Food
Energy
Total
Consumer
Capi- goods
tal
equip- excluded
ment
and
energy
Crude materials for fur ther
processing
Total
Foods
and
feeds1
Energy
Other
Total
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
Energy
Other
198.3
165.0
191.0
190.1
209.2
253.0
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
147.5
163 4
170.6
181.7
195.9
217.7
166.9
181.0
180.4
189.9
207.2
226.2
215.2
252 4
282.3
326.7
347.7
469.9
133.3
148 5
156.8
166.3
178.7
194.7
141.0
162 5
173.4
184.6
199.2
216.5
129.1
141.0
148.1
156.6
168.0
183.3
162.9
180 0
189.1
201.5
215.6
243.2
200.2
195.3
185.3
190.5
203.1
226.1
188.7
2208
236.8
267.3
280.3
348.6
156.7
174.7
185.0
196.1
210.4
234.2
196.1 189.4
196.9 191.8
202.7 190.2
209.2 192.1
234.4 216.2
274.3 247.9
223.0
2669
283.1
323.5
362.5
439.9
1980
1981 2
1982
247.0
269.8
280.6
239.5
253.6
259.3
701.3
835.4
823.4
216.4
235.1
248.5
239.8
264.3
279.6
204.2
220.1
232.5
280.3 252.6
306.0 250.3
310.4 . 239.6
484.9
573.6
570.9
261.8
283.4
290.1
304.6 259.2
329.0 257.4
319.5 247.8
586.1 269.4
783.4 266.0
801.7 238.2
Mar
Apr
May
June
260.9
263.3
266.0
268 5
269.6
270.5
251.0
251.3
252.6
2519
252.8
253.8
758.1
790.2
838.7
8539
854.2
857.3
228.2
229.5
230.2
232 8
234.0
234.7
254.6
256.7
258.1
260 8
262.5
263.8
214.4
215.4
215.8
2183
219.3
219.7
296.1
298.3
302.0
3058
306.7
307.2
270.9
261.3
255.6
254.9
253.1
253.2
532.0
548.8
575.4
585 3
586.0
583.4
274.3
275.9
277.8
2813
282.6
283.4
328.0
336.5
334.2
336,3
334.4
335.4
270.7
267.1
262.1
263.5
260.6
264.3
696.0
782.6
7851
790 5
798,2
793.5
274.1
271.1
275 5
277 9
272 7
267.5
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
271.8
2715
271.5
274.3
274 7
275.4
257.6
256.3
256.2
254.0
252.7
252.9
852.4
842 0
847.1
841.6
842 2
846.6
235.5
236.1
235.8
240.7
2416
242.3
265.4
265.8
265.3
271:5
273.0
274.1
220.3
220.9
220.7
225.0
225.7
226.2
308.5
3101
309.7
309.4
309 0
309.4
251.1
250.2
243.5
239.3
235.2
235.2
580.6
585.9
579.7
575.7
574 0
576.8
285.5
287.0
287.7
288.2
288 2
288.4
337.3
333.0
327.4
319.9
313.9
311.5
267.2
261.8
253.4
245.7
238.3
233.7
793.6
786.4
795.7
786.8
7912
800.6
267.0
269.0
263.3
257.8
249 3
?4fi?
277.9
277 9
277.3
277.3
277.8
279.9
256.4
258.2
257.1
260.0
262.3
263.4
842.3
832 6
814.0
775.3
758.2
789.8
244.7
244 6
245.2
246.4
247.3
248.1
276.2
275 0
275.8
277.2
278.1
279.2
228.6
229.0
229.5
230.6
231.5
232.1
311.0
3111
310.6
309.9
309.8
309.9
238.8
239.4
237.7
240.9
245.0
245.1
582.6
575.7
572.2
560.2
552.0
561.4
289.4
290.2
290.2
290.7
291.1
290.1
318.4
321.6
320.0
322.6
328.3
325.6
242.6
248.3
247.9
254.4
262.6
259.9
801.5
7969
788.8
778.5
784.0
792.0
?%!
249 9
248.5
246.8
243.7
?34 3
281.7
282.3
2814
284.1
284 9
285.1
260.6
259.7
2599
257.8
257.6
258.2
834.7
844 3
846 6
841.7
855 3
845.9
248.8
249.5
2480
252.7
253 0
253.7
280.2
280.7
279 5
283.8
284 0
285.1
232.6
233.3
232 0
236.7
237.0
237.4
311.1
310.8
310 7
310.0
3101
310.2
243.6
240.2
238.4
234.8
234.6
235.4
579.3
582.2
572 4
569.2
572.4
571.2
289.6
289.2
290.3
290.1
290.0
290.2
323.4
319.8
316.3
312.2
313.4
312.6
255.5
249.6
242.9
236.3
236.3
237.0
799.4
801.7
810.0
816.7
830.2
820.1
232.9
1981:
Jan
Feb
1982: 2
Jan
Feb..
Mr
a
Apr
«h»
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov...
Dec
::
1
2
?m
233.2
?30fi
227.5
227.6
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
Data have been revised through August 1982 to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents. All data are
subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
Source-. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
229
TABLE B-59.—Producer price indexes for major commodity groups, 1940-82
[1967 = 100]
Farm products and processed
foods and feeds
Year or month
Total
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 •
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar...
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: *
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
...
,
. .
,.
,
,
Farm
products
Processed
foods and
feeds
Total
Textile
products
and
apparel
Hides,
skins,
leather,
and
related
products
Fuels and
related
products,
and
power»
Chemicals
and allied
products *
51.4
54.6
56.2
57.8
59.5
60.1
64 4
76.9
90.5
86.2
87.1
90.3
90.1
92.6
91.3
91.2
94.0
99.1
95.3
95.3
96.1
97.2
96.7
96.3
93.7
95.5
97.8
100.0
98.9
100.9
106 2
115.2
118.6
134.3
208.3
245.1
265.6
302.2
322.5
408.1
574,0
694.5
693.4
52.4
57.0
63.3
64.1
64.8
65.2
70 5
93.7
95.9
87.6
88.9
1017
96.5
97 7
98.9
98.5
99.1
101.2
102.0
101.6
101.8
100.7
99.1
97.9
98.3
99.0
99.4
100.0
99.8
99.9
102 2
104.1
104.2
110.0
146.8
181.3
187.2
192.8
198.8
222,3
260.3
287.6
292.4
82 9
88.7
80.6
83.4
92 7
91.6
87 4
88.9
85.0
84.9
87 4
91.8
89.4
89.5
91.0
91.9
92.5
92 3
95.5
1012
100.0
102 2
107.3
1121
114 5
120.8
148.1
1709
182.6
178.0
1861
202 6
222.5
241.2
248 7
251.5
44.0
47 3
50.7
51.5
52.3
53.0
580
70 8
76.9
75.3
78.0
861
84.1
84 8
85.0
86 9
90.8
93 3
93.6
95.3
95.3
94.8
94.8
94.7
952
96.4
98 5
100.0
102 5
106.0
1100
1141
117.9
125.9
153 8
171.5
182.4
1951
209.4
236.5
274.8
3041
312.3
103.6
108.1
98.9
102.7
114.6
103.4
100.8
98.6
98.7
98.7
98.8
97,0
98.4
99.5
97.7
98.6
98.5
99.2
99.8
100.1
100.0
103.7
106.0
107.1
109.0
113.6
123.8
139.1
137.9
148.2
154.0
159.8
168.7
183.5
199.7
204.3
45.2
48.4
52.8
52.7
52.2
52.9
611
83.3
84.2
79.9
86.3
99.1
80.1
81.3
77.6
77.3
81.9
82.0
82.9
94.2
90.8
91.7
92.7
90.0
90.3
94.3
103.4
100.0
103.2
108.9
110.3
114.1
131.3
143.1
145.1
148.5
167.8
179.3
200.0
252.4
248.9
260.9
263.0
264.5
262.4
260 7
263.3
259.6
260.7
263 3
257 9
2511
243.1
237.4
234.6
253.3
250.2
248 5
247.6
248.2
249.9
252 2
2512
248 9
246.6
244 3
243.6
291.5
295.7
299 6
303.5
304.7
305.1
306 2
307 2
307 4
309.0
309 3
310.0
193.1
193.9
195.2
197.6
199.2
200.1
201.3
202.4
202.9
204.0
203.6
203.4
258.2
257.7
261.2
263.5
263.7
261.6
261.1
261.3
261.7
260.0
259.8
260.7
634.6
667.5
696.5
707.2
709.0
707.6
704.9
704.3
703.5
698.1
698.1
702.5
274.3
277.6
280.4
286.0
288.6
290.5
291.3
293 3
293 3
292.4
292.0
291.8
242.2
247.1
244.7
2506
256 5
252.7
246.6
240.8
234.4
229.1
230.6
232.5
247.1
248.1
248.1
2511
2544
255.8
254.6
253.5
253.6
251.0
250 4
250.6
311.8
311.6
3110
309 9
309 6
310.6
312.8
313.2
312.9
314.4
315.1
315.0
205.0
205.6
261.8
261.6
260.6
263.4
263.2
261.8
263.1
262.0
264.8
264.7
264.3
265.2
705.1
697.8
689.7
670.6
662.2
677.3
701.1
705.6
701.8
699.6
707.3
702.6
292.9
293.6
294.6
294.3
295.0
293.3
291.6
291.6
291.4
290.4
290.5
289.3
94.3
101.5
89.6
93.9
106 9
102.7
96 0
95.7
912
90.6
93.7
98.1
93.5
93.7
93.7
94.7
93.8
93.2
97.1
103 5
100.0
102 4
108.0
1117
113.9
122.4
159.1
177.4
184.2
183.1
188 8
206.6
229.8
244.7
251.5
248.9
41.4
50.3
64.8
75.0
75.5
78.5
909
1094
117.5
101.6
106.7
124 2
117.2
106 2
104.7
98 2
96.9
99 5
103.9
97.5
97.2
96.3
98 0
96.0
94.6
98.7
105 9
100.0
102 5
109.1
1110
112.9
125.0
176.3
187 7
186.7
191.0
192 5
212.5
241.4
249.4
254 9
242.3
257.9
255.1
253 5
253.8
252.9
254.3
256.8
254 2
250 3
246.0
242.5
241.0
246.0
248.4
247.5
251.6
255 8
255.3
252.4
249.6
247.5
243.9
244.0
244.8
See next page for continuation of table.
Industrial commodities
230
2054
205.4
205.0
204.1
204.2
203.8
202.6
203.5
202.4
TABLE B-59.—Producer price indexes for major commodity groups,
1940-82—Continued
[1967 = 100]
Industrial commodities—Continued
Machinery
and
equipment
Furniture
and
household
durables
Nonmetallic
mineral
products
Transportation
equipment:
Motor
vehicles
and
equipment 3
72.5
75.7
72.4
37 8
38 5
39.1
39.0
39 0
39.6
44.3
54.9
62.5
63.0
41.4
421
42.8
42.4
42.1
42.2
46.4
53.7
58.2
61.0
53 8
57 2
61.8
61.4
631
63.2
67.1
77.0
81.6
82.9
491
50 2
52 3
52.4
53 5
55.7
59 3
66.3
716
73.5
40.4
43 2
47.2
47.2
47 5
48.3
56.0
64.1
70.8
75.7
73.5
76 5
78.0
89.3
97.2
94.4
94.3
92.6
97.1
98.5
93.5
92.4
98.8
74.3
88.0
85.7
85.5
85.5
87.8
93.6
95.4
96.4
97.3
66.3
73.8
73.9
76.3
76.9
82.1
89 2
91.0
90.4
92.3
63.1
70.5
70.6
72.2
73.4
75.7
81.8
87.6
89.4
91.3
84.7
91.8
90.1
91.9
92.9
93.3
95 8
98.3
99.1
99.3
75.4
80.1
80.1
83.3
85.1
87.5
913
94.8
95.8
97.0
75.3
79.4
84.0
83.6
83.8
86.3
912
95.1
98.1
100.3
79.2
83 9
83.4
85 6
86.4
86 5
87 6
90.2
92 0
92.2
1031
99.2
96 3
96.8
95 5
95.9
97 8
100.0
1034
105.3
95.3
91.0
91.6
93.5
95.4
95.9
100.2
100.0
113.3
125.3
98.1
95.2
96 3
95.6
95 4
96.2
98.8
100.0
101.1
104.0
92 4
91.9
912
91.3
93 8
96.4
98 8
100.0
102.6
108.5
92.0
91.9
92.0
92.2
92.8
93.9
96.8
100.0
103.2
106.5
99.0
98.4
97 7
97.0
97 4
96.9
98.0
100.0
102.8
104.9
97 2
97.6
97 6
97.1
97 3
97.5
98 4
100.0
103.7
107.7
98.8
98.6
98.6
97.8
98.3
98.5
98.6
100.0
102.8
104.8
93 0
93.3
93 7
94.5
95 2
95.9
97 7
100.0
102.2
105.2
108 3
1091
109.3
1124
136.2
150 2
159.2
167 6
174 8
194.3
217 4
232 6
241.6
113.6
127 3
144.3
177.2
183.6
176.9
205.6
236.3
276 0
300.4
288.9
292.8
284.7
108.2
1101
113.4
1221
151.7
170.4
179.4
186.4
195 6
219.0
249 2
273.8
288.6
1166
118 7
123.5
132 8
171.9
185 6
195.9
209.0
2271
259.3
286.4
300 4
301.8
111.4
115 5
117.9
121.7
139.4
161.4
171.0
181.7
196.1
213.9
239.8
263.3
278.7
107.5
110 0
111.4
115.2
127.9
139.7
145.6
151.5
1604
171.3
187.7
198.5
206.8
112.9
122 4
126.1
130.2
153.2
174.0
186.3
200.5
222 8
248.6
283.0
309.5
320.2
108.7
114.9
118.0
119.2
129.2
144.6
153.8
163.7
176.0
190.5
208.8
237.6
251.3
109.9
112 9
114.6
119.7
133.1
147.7
153.7
164.3
184.3
208.7
258.8
265.7
276.6
224.8
226.4
228 4
230 8
2318
233.4
2321
2341
235 7
237 3
238.0
238 3
296.5
294.7
294.4
299.4
298 4
298.1
264.4
267.2
269.0
2714
2721
272.9
294.0
294.0
296.4
298 8
2991
298.4
253.3
255.3
257.5
259.6
260.7
262.1
194.0
195.2
195.8
196.4
197 4
197.3
296.6
297.9
300.9
310.8
312.0
313.6
229.0
230.9
229.5
233.9
236.0
236.7
296.5
294.5
289.3
284.3
282.1
285.4
274.9
275.9
277 8
279 2
280.4
281.0
302.0
304.1
304 9
305 3
304.2
303.3
264.8
266.2
268.1
269.3
270.4
272.0
199.5
199.6
201.0
201.3
202.1
202.9
314.3
314.1
313.2
313.3
313.7
313.5
237.4
238.4
232.8
247.8
248.9
249.5
264.3
264.9
264.0
266.0
266.9
266.3
263.2
262.6
267.0
268.5
267.5
267.6
237 3
239.3
240.8
2411
2421
242.5
285.5
285.2
285.3
286.5
284.6
289.0
203.5
204.6
205.5
206.0
206.5
207.0
288.6
284.2
283.0
279.6
279.9
284.8
304 7
304.2
302.9
303.1
302 8
299.3
299.5
299.2
301.8
302.1
3010
300.9
274.1
275.4
276.2
277.6
278.2
278.6
242.0
242.6
243 3
243 0
242 6
243.0
285 5
286.3
287.4
288.5
289 6
289.5
289.1
289.3
289.2
289.2
289.6
289.5
279.6
279.9
280.3
280.9
281.3
281.8
206.8
208.1
207.7
208.4
208.3
208.6
315.6
319.0
319.9
320.2
321.2
320.9
321.1
320.5
320.2
321.2
321.5
320.9
250.8
246.8
246.8
247.2
249.2
251.1
252.0
252.8
245.0
258.1
257.5
257.9
268.3
273.5
272.7
273.2
272.2
271.5
273.4
272.0
280.3
285.9
285.7
290.3
Lumber
and
wood
products
57 1
615
716
73.6
111
70.5
70 8
70.5
72 8
70.5
27.4
32 7
35.6
37.7
40.6
41.2
47.2
73.4
84.0
77.7
85.9
105.4
95.5
89.1
90.4
102.4
103 8
103.4
103 3
102.9
Year or month
Rubber
and
plastic
products
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968...
1969
. ..
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 2
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
IVfay
Jun'e
July
Aiig
Seot
Ocit
Nov
Dec
1982: 2
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
My
a
June
July
Aug
Oct
Nov
Dec
:
Pulp,
paper,
and
allied
products
Metals
and
metal
products
Miscellaneous
products
1
Prices for some items in this grouping are lagged and refer to 1 month earlier than the index month.
2
Data have been revised through August 1982 to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents. All data are
subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
3
Index for total transportation equipment is not shown but is available beginning December 1968.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
231
TABLE B-60.—Changes in producer price indexes for finished goods, 1950-82
[Percent change]
Total
finished
goods
Finished
consumer
foods
Dec.
to
Dec. 1
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 •
Consumer
goods
Total
Year or month
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec.1
Year
to
year
10.4
2.9
=2.2
.5
= .1
12
4.2
3.2
1.8
9.5
-.6
= 1.0
1.9
12.4
=.9
-5.2
=.8
-25
-.2
3.5
58
-4.7
22
0
13,3
5.3
-5.9
«2.2
-1.9
29
3.6
5.3
4
=3.7
52
= 1.8
=13
.4
17
32
12
2.8
3.7
3.5
3.1
31
91
15.3
10 8
4.4
6.5
7.8
11.1
13.5
9.2
4.0
.4
91
1.4
4
4.8
8.2
=2.5
5.9
80
22 5
13.0
55
-2 5
6.9
117
7.4
7.5
1.4
2.1
= .4
18
-.5
.1
— 2
•
33
22
16
3.1
4.8
2.2
3.2
38
118
18.3
66
3.7
6.9
9.2
12.8
11.8
7.1
3.5
2
2.8
3.6
2.3
8
Finished
energy
goods
Finished goods excluding consumer foods
.9
-1.2
.5
38
6.5
16
3.6
6.2
3.2
1.6
56
20 3
14.0
84
— 3
5.3
9.1
9.2
5.9
5.9
2.2
Oec.
to
Dec. 1
2.4
3.4
4.3
2.1
21
66
21.2
72
6.2
6.9
8.3
14.8
13.3
8.8
4.0
Dec.
to
Dec.1
Year
to
year
8.2
.9
-1.1
1.6
.3
17
2.5
1.7
2
.8
4
= .3
Year
to
year
1.6
7.2
-1.3
.9
:i
i
9
1.7
2.1
2.0
2.9
3.9
2.0
20
74
20.5
67
60
6.7
8.5
17,5
14.2
8.5
3.9
2.6
2.7
3.5
3.7
20
41
16.0
121
6.3
7.0
7.3
11.9
16.2
10.3
4.5
8
2.4
2.5
.1
1.3
4
-.1
-.2
0
_ l
.7
1.6
19
2.1
2.4
3.0
3.4
19
45
16.9
10 5
6.2
7.2
7.1
13.3
18.6
10.2
4.1
Cap tal
equip ment
Dec.
to
Dec. 1
Year
to
year
2.4
9.7
1.7
1.7
1.2
30
7.4
6.2
2.6
1.9
2
.1
.4
.2
1.0
1.2
2.5
3.3
3.5
3.3
4.8
4.1
25
33
14.2
15.2
6.7
6.5
7.9
8.7
10.8
10.2
5.8
10.3
3.4
.8
2.3
1.1
56
8.3
4.3
1.3
1.0
.1
.2
.3
.9
1.5
3.9
3,1
3.0
4.6
4.9
2.4
20
53
22.6
8.2
6.4
7.3
7.9
8.8
11.4
9.2
4.0
Dec.
to
Dec.1
16.4
11.5
12.1
8.5
58.0
27.8
14.1
Year
to
year
17.3
11.8
15.7
6.4
35.1
49.2
19.1
-1.4
Finished goods
excluding food
and energy
Dec.
to
Dec. 1
Year
to
year
6.1
5.6
6.3
8.3
9.4
10.7
7.8
4.7
11.4
5.6
6.1
7.5
9.0
11.1
8.6
5.7
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
1.5
.6
1.2
.5
Percent change from preceding month
Unadjusted
Season-
3
Unadjusted
1.4
.9
1.0
.9
1.2
A
0.7
.1
.5
-.3
.9
June
July
.5
Sept
Oct
o
1.0
Dec:....:::..:::..
1982:»
Jan
Feb
Mr
a
Apr
May'::::::::::.::.
June
July
Aug
sept'::.::
Oct
Nov
Dec
.9
o
_ 2
0
.2
.8
.6
1.0
.4
3
.2
.6
.5
—2
„ 1
To
.5
-ll
.5
3
Unadjusted
1.5
5
=-.0
= .9
-.5
.1
1.4
7
4
1.1
.9
-1.1
— 8
0.6
-.1
2
2
.5
.8
1
-2
=.7
1.1
5
- 1
1.7
.6
.5
-1.6
-Is
-.2
-.2
.1
Season-
3
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
1.6
1.2
1.2
1.3
.4
.3
.2
.0
1.6
.3
.3
1.4
1.0
1.2
1.2
.2
.6
.2
.8
.8
.4
.7
.4
= 2
-.3
-.0
.9
1.2
= .1
= .4
1.5
.4
.0
111
1.2
-lo
:9
.i
1
Season-
3
justed
justed
justed
justed
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Season-
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.3
.3
.3
.1
_ i
.1
1.3
.3
J
-.1
-.3
—6
-.2
1.1
1.4
.5
-.4
1.5
.4
-.1
1.4
1.1
1.4
1.2
.0
.5
.1
2
.5
.8
.9
.4
-.3
-4
—.7
1.4
.8
.8
1.1
-.1
1.5
.8
llo
.7
.5
.6
2
2.3
.6
.4
.8
-.4
.3
13
.4
.4
.2
-.4
1.5
.1
.4
1.2
.9
>
.6
1.0
.7
.6
.5
= .4
.5
.3
.4
.7
.4
.7
=.1
.2
.3
.6
2.2
4.2
6.1
1.8
.0
.4
.6
1.2
.6
.5
1.9
3.8
S.8
1.3
-.8
.4
-.5
= 11
=-.1
1.4
.9
=.5
-1.2
-2.2
=4.8
-2.2
4.2
5.7
1.2
.3
-.9
-1.6
-2.6
=5.2
-3.0
4.2
5.7
1.2
.4
-.1
-ill
-'.7
.3
.3
.1
2.1
ill
.4
.6
.4
.6
.3
1.0
.'3
.2
1.0
= .0
.7
-.1
.3
.5
.2
.6
.4
.6
— 1
Is
A
.3
.3
1.9
Is
Changes from December to December are based on unadjusted indexes.
Oata7iave been revised through August 1982 to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents. All data are
subject to revision 4 months after original publication.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
z
232
MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, A N D FINANCE
TABLE B-61.—Money stock measures and liquid assets, 1959-82
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
M2
Ml
Sum of
currency,
demand
Year and month
deposits,
travelers'
checks, and
other
checkable
deposits
<OCD) *
M3
M l plus
overnight RPs
and
Eurodollars,
MMMF
balances
(genera!
purpose and
broker/
dealer), and
savings and
smalltime
deposits2
Percent change from year or 6
months earlier 3
NI2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, and
institution-only
MMMF
balances
M3 plus other
liquid assets
M2
Ml
M3
December:
1959
140.9
297.7
298.9
388.4
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
141.9
146.5
149.2
154.7
161.9
312.3
335.5
362.8
393.4
425.1
314.3
339.4
369.7
404.1
440.2
403.4
430.5
465.9
503.7
540.5
0.7
3.2
1.8
3.7
4.7
4.9
7.4
8.1
8.4
8.1
5.2
8.0
8.9
9.3
8.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
169.5
173.7
185.1
199.4
205.8
459.5
481.3
526.6
569.4
591.3
480.7
504.9
558.6
608.4
614.1
584.5
616.5
670.1
733.9
765.2
4.7
2.5
6.6
7.7
3.2
8.1
4.7
9.4
8.1
3.8
9.2
5.0
10.6
8.9
.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
216.5
230.6
251.9
265.8
277.4
628.6
713.6
806.4
863.2
911.2
675.2
773.7
882.8
981.4
1,064.3
5.2
6.5
9.2
5.5
4.4
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
291.0
310.4
335.5
363.2
389.0
1,166.2
1,305.0
1,464.6
1,629.0
1,779.4
4.9
6.7
8.1
8.3
7.1
6.3
13.5
13.0
7.0
5.6
12.7
14.1
10.8
8,2
8.2
9.9
14.6
14.1
11.2
8.4
9.6
11.9
12.2
11.2
9.2
1980
1981
1982"
414.5
440.9
478.5
1,026.9
1,171.2
1,297.7
1,403.9
1,518.9
1,656.2
1,822.7
1,999.1
816.5
903.2
1,023.6
1,143.8
1,249.8
1,376.6
1,531.4
1,724.3
1,938.9
2,153.9
1,963.1
2,188.1
2,403.7
2,370.4
2,642.8
6.6
6.4
8.5
9.0
10.1
9.7
10.3
11.5
9.9
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
417.9
419.4
424.4
433.3
429.2
428.4
1,665.7
1,678.2
1,701.1
1,723.2
1,732.4
1,740.9
1,984.2
2,001.9
2,024.0
2,046.3
2,065.2
2,082.1
2,397.3
2,418.2
2,438.0
2,455.5
2,483.1
2,506.6
10.3
7.2
6.8
8.8
5.7
6.8
8.6
7.6
9.0
10.4
9.4
10.5
11.7
10.8
11.8
12.3
11.9
12.5
July
Aug
Sept:
429.4
431.1
431.2
432.9
436.4
440.9
1,753.7
1,772.4
1,778.3
1,789.5
1,809.9
1,822.7
2,102.5
2,126.0
2,138.1
2,151.1
2,174.7
2,188.1
2,530.4
2,559.7
2,577.2
2,600.0
2,629.3
2,642.8
5.6
5.7
3.2
-.2
3.4
5.9
10.8
11.5
9.3
7.8
9.1
9.6
12.3
12.8
11.6
10.5
10.9
10.4
May
June
448.6
447.3
448.3
452.4
451.5
451.4
1,841.3
1,848.1
1,865.3
1,880.9
1,897.7
1,908.2
2,667.9
2,690.5
2,717.2
2,744.2
2,774.4
2,799.5
451.3
455.2
460.5
468.4
475.0
478.5
1,923.8
1,946.8
1,955.0
1,968.2
1,987.2
1,999.1
9.1
7.7
8.1
9.2
7.0
4.8
1.2
3.6
5.5
7.2
10.7
12.4
10.2
8.7
10.0
10.5
9.9
9.6
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec"
2,204.3
2,215.1
2,235.9
2,258.3
2,279.5
2,296.2
2,320.6
2,356.4
2,364.2
2,382.1
2,401.2
2,403.7
9.9
8.6
9.4
10.2
9.9
10.1
10.8
13.2
11.8
11.3
11.0
9.6
1981:
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2,831.9
2,858.2
9.2
11.0
9.8
9.5
9.7
9.8
1
Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
2
M2 will differ from the sum of components shown in Table 8-62 by a consolidation adjustment that represents the estimated
amount of demand deposits and vault cash held by thrift institutions to service time and savings deposits.
3
Monthly percent changes are from 6 months earlier at a compound annual rate.
Note.—See Table B-62 for components, except travelers checks not shown separately.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
233
TABLE B-62,—Components of money stock measures and liquid assets, 1959-82
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Currency
Period
Demand
deposits 1
Other
checkable
deposits
Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)
(net)
NSA
December:
1959
Money
market
mutual fund
(MMMF)
balances
Small
OverSav- denomGennight
ings ination
eral
Eurotime
depurdollars
pose Insti- posits deposits 2
and tution
bro- only
ker/
dealer
NSA NSA NSA
0.0
0.7
46.1
38.6
0.5
3.6
0
.0
0
457
46.5
469
48.1
49,0
36 7
37.0
39 8
40.7
38.5
8
1.0
10
!c
8
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.4
51
5.2
68
7.7
9.1
256.5
•f) ?5?K
263.3
268.5
263.2
35.2
55.9
49.6
SO?
10
1.5
2.4
1.7
2.1
101.9
121.7
21.2
23.1
31.0
37.4
20.4
153 6
192.0
233 9
267.6
290.0
45 0
57.6
73 2
111.2
144.4
14
2.5
33
7.1
8.4
n
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
n
.0
.0
o
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
40 4
43.4
46.1
132.5
134.6
143.9
155.1
158.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
491
WI
Vift
61 5
67.8
166.3
176.8
193.6
202.5
207.4
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
73 8
80 6
88 6
97 4
106.1
2141
224.4
2396
253.9
262.2
1980
1981
1982"
116?
123.1
132.6
267 2
236.4
240.2
116?
117?
117.8
1191
119.4
119.7
254.1
244 8
243.0
243.5
240.4
237.7
120.5
1?0 7
121.1
121.3
236.7
236.6
234.7
235.7
121.8
123.1
.0
11
1.6
2.5
1
.0
.0
.0
o
n
n
.0
.0
n
14
2.5
31
6.8
7.2
.0
o
o
i
.0
2.1
o
.0
10
2.0
3.6
i?
?8
?9
71
16.9
75
137
17 8
221
22,7
269
77.0
101.3
305
31.4
39.5
45
6.7
6.1
43 2
2
.4
o
.0
NSA
1.2
0.0
o
36.3
0.0 146.0
o
.0
.0
.0
o
259.3
?908
n 320 2
o 1?S9
n 337.6
790
.0
34.4
4
6
9
31
9.3
387 7
4*tl7
490 4
479.9
421.7
3409
3965
4541
5339
652.6
1298
118.2
1452
194 6
221.8
90
15.0
210
27 5
30.2
819
151.2
177.5
139
33.7
43.1
3989
343.6
400.3
7517
854.7
904.2
257 9
300.3
332.6
37 8
35.4
33.6
30 6
304
31.9
318
34.5
36.5
52 6S8
49 7S?
4.6 85.4
50
98.8
6.5 %n
6.4 102.9
150
17 3
20.2
213
19.5
20.1
384 5
378 5
378.5
3788
373.5
366.8
7681
7757
782.0
7841
795.8
805.5
267.5
2717
269.8
267.6
278.3
285.6
392
381
36.1
36 7
37.7
38.8
35.4
35 3
32.7
30.2
6.9
78
6.9
5.9
65
112.8
1???
130.6
137.3
144 9
6.7 151.2
21.6
23 3
26.6
29.4
361.0
3509
343.1
339.6
32 0 340 9
33.7 343.6
814.0
8308
839,7
849.8
856.6
293.1
299 8
302.3
302.2
37.2
334
33.8
33.4
235.7
236.4
68.1
69 5
71.2
71.6
74 7
77.0
854.7
300.6
300.3
Apr
May
June
123.8
124.6
125.1
126.3
1?7 4
128.4
239.3
234.5
233.0
233.0
2327
231.0
81.1
83.8
85.8
88.6
870
87.5
35.7
35.6
36.7
34.6
35 8
36.0
7.5
7.3
6.3
5.8
70
7.0
154.9
156.1
159.4
162.1
164 6
168.9
32.5
30.5
31.5
31.5
328
33.7
348.8
348.6
350.7
350.5
3509
349.9
852.3
859.4
869.9
881.6
894.1
900.9
Juty
Aug
128.8
I?*)1)
230.6
231.1
232 6
236.2
2383
240.2
87.4
902
93 0
96 5
1007
101.3
36.4
37 6
7.0 171.7
69 180 6
65 18? 5
62 1841
66 186 6
6.1 177.5
36.7
431
43 9
44 8
344.0
342 0
342 4
3526
453 362 3
43.1 400.3
919.7
930.6
932.6
923.8
923 0
904.2
1981:
Jan
Feb .
Mar
Apr
Mv
a
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mr
a
i
Nov
Dec"
....
no 5
W ?
Wfi
132.6
9
?7
42
8.4
533
59.5
665
65.2
66.7
30 4
31.4
368
39 7
406
39.5
Commercial
paper
20
3.9
6.9
10.7
15.2
0.0
0
.0
0
.0
.0
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Shortterm BankTreas- ers'
ury acceptsecu- ances
rities
12 9
15.2
207
26.2
29.9
0.0
0
.0
0
.1
NSA
Term
Euro- Savdollars ings
(net) bonds
11.8
0.0
112 5
29.6 116.5
W fi 118.1
32.5 121.7
34.3 127.0
?9 0
Term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)
1587
175.0
194.3
213.9
234.8
111.6
28.9
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Large
denomination
time
deposits 2
n
1.2
1.5
1.6
10.2
14.4
2.2
3.2
22.5
34.0
2.9
2.7
51.8
51.7
40.7
43?
38.7
46.1
59.5
2.2
52 0
49 2
3.3
W3
411
3.5
3.3
4.7
2.1 512
2.7 VH
3.6 57 6
5.4 60 4
8.0
9.7
13.1
63.2
67 2
50 0
53.6
77.1
187
717
764
811
899
29.9
42.9
80.3
79.6
48.4
66.7
1.7
10.6
8.4
8.8
178
34 5
32.7
352
41.9
50.1
480
51.7
629
128.5
11.8
21.4
26.5
79.2
97.0
723
67.7
1567
176.5
31.8
39.7
981
104.2
522
50.2
717
710
52.1
52.6
57.0
57.9
70.6
703
70.0
69.7
161.1
163 6
161.9
157.6
158.2
160.3
32.4
32.5
33.3
34.5
35.6
36.4
97.7
97 0
96.1
94.2
97.1
100.3
35 6
35.4
58.7
61.0
61.2
63.4
65.5
66.7
69.4
689
68.4
67.9
67 7
67.7
161.8
164.1
168.1
176.0
179.9
176.5
37.1
37.3
37.6
37.1
38.1
39.7
100.8
102.4
103.8
104.4
103.7
104.2
302.6
308.0
312.6
317.2
3216
328.3
32.5
32.5
31.5
34.2
326
31.2
69.9
73.8
74.4
78.5
83 3
84.8
67.8
67.8
67.7
67.7
67 7
67.8
180.3
186.4
191.0
191.7
1919
194.8
40.2
373
38.3
39.9
40.3
105.5
108.4
110.3
109.7
1121
115.7
335.8
339 6
339 3
342 5
3404
332.6
29.3
321
30 5
84.2
81.5
67.7 199.9
67 6 200.5
40.8
40.2
118.7
112.0
313
33 5
33.6
'Demand deposits at all commercial banks other than those due to domestic banks, the U.S. Government, and foreign banks and
official institutions less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float.
2
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000,
respectively.
Note, NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.
See also Table B-61.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
234
TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans and investments, 1939-82
[Billions of dollars]
Year and month
End of month >
1939- Dec
1940- Dec
1941- Dec
1942- Dec
1943- Dec
1944- Dec
1945- Dec
1946- Dec
1947: Dec
1948: Dec
Total loans
and
investments
Loans
Total
40.7
439
50 7
67.4
851
105.5
124 0
114 0
116.3
114.3
17.2
18 8
21.7
19.2
19.1
21.6
261
31.1
38.1
42.5
113.0
118.7
124.7
130 2
139.1
1431
153.1
157.6
1616
166.4
1812
188.7
197 4
212.8
2312
250.2
272.3
300.1
3161
352.0
390.2
401.7
435.5
485.7
558.0
41.5
42.0
51.1
56.5
62.8
66.2
69.1
80.6
88.1
91.5
95.6
110.5
116.7
123.6
137.3
153.7
172,9
198.2
213.9
231.3
258.2
279.4
292.0
320.9
378.9
572 6
647 8
713.6
745 2
804.6
891.5
1,013.5
1,135.9
1,239.6
1316 3
1,412.4
13201
1332 4
1342 5
1,352.5
1,362.0
1,368.8
13761
13831
1,389.4
1397 5
1398 5
1,412.4
Investments
Commercial
and
industrial
US.
Treasury
securities
Other
securities
Loans plus
loans sold
to bank
affiliates
16.3
17 8
218
41.4
598
77.6
906
74 8
69.2
62.6
7.1
74
72
6.8
6.1
6.3
73
8.1
9.0
9.2
69.5
78 6
86.2
95.9
105.7
110.0
116.2
130.4
62.3
66.4
61.1
60.4
62.2
62 2
67.6
60.3
57.2
56.9
651
57.7
59 9
65.3
64.7
61.5
60.7
57.1
53.5
59.4
60.7
51.2
57.8
60.6
62.6
9.2
10.3
12.4
13.4
14.2
14 7
16.4
16.8
16.3
17.9
20.5
20.5
20.8
23.9
29.2
35.0
38.7
44.8
48.7
61.3
71.3
71.1
85.7
104.2
116.5
283.3
294.7
323.7
381.5
390 5
460.5
520.1
517.4
555.0
632.5
747.0
849.9
915.1
973.9
1,042.3
137 5
165 4
196.9
1896
190.9
210.9
245.9
291.2
326.8
358 0
392.4
65 8
58.5
53.6
82.2
100.8
99.8
93.8
94.5
110.0
111.0
130.9
116.3
128.8
139.9
145.6
148.8
159.3
172.8
191.5
214.4
231.4
239.2
393.1
464.8
524.8
521.8
558.7
637.1
750.7
852.9
917.8
976.7
1,045.2
974.5
985.2
995.0
1,002.0
1,010.8
1,017.1
1 023.7
1028 3
1,033.5
1,038.1
1 036.4
1,042.3
360.3
365.5
3700
373.1
378.9
383.4
386.7
387 9
392.5
394.8
392.0
392.4
114.1
115.1
114.4
116.6
116.3
115.8
116.5
117.8
118.2
122.3
126.4
130.9
231.5
232.0
233.1
234.0
234.9
235.9
235.9
237.1
237.6
237.2
235.8
239.2
977.4
988.0
997.8
1,004.8
1,013.5
1,020.1
1,026.5
1,031.1
1,036.4
1,040.9
1,039.3
1,045.2
Seasonally adjusted
1948- Dec
1949- Dec
1950- Dec
1951- Dec.
1952: Dec
1953- Dec
1954: Dec
1955: Dec
1956- Dec
1957: Dec
1958- Dec
1959- Dec
I960- Dec
1961- Dec
1962- Dec
1963: Dec
1964: Dec
1965: Dec
1966- Dec
1967: Dec
1968: Dec
1969- Dec
1970: Dec
1971: Dec
1972- Dec
Average for
month 2
1972- Dec
1973- Dec
1974- Dec
1975- Dec
1976: Dec
1977: Dec
1978- Dec
1979- Dec.
1980: Dec
1981- Dec
1982- Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mr
a
June
Julv
AUg
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
39.4
421
43.9
47 6
52.1
58.4
1
Data are for December 31 call dates.
2
Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of current and previous month-end
data for foreign-related institutions. Lease financing receivables are included in total loans and investments and in total loans.
Note,—Beginning December 1981, levels have been reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking
«
Facilities <IB?s).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
235
TABLE B-64,—Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 1974-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1974
Item
Total funds raised by nonfinancial sectors
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
193.9
214.4
273.5
334.3
401.7
402.0
397.1
406.9
U.S. Government
11.8
85.4
69.0
56.8
53.7
37.4
79.2
87.4
Foreign
14.8
11.5
19.6
13.9
33.2
21.0
29.3
27.3
167.4
117.5
184.9
263.6
314.8
343.6
288.7
292.3
4.1
163.3
10.5
174.3
3R9
198.7
-7.8
351.5
216.0
12.9
275.8
100.6
9.9
107.5
100.9
204.1
-11.5
303.7
175.0
16.5
19.7
64.4
16.1
27.2
57.6
15.7
22.8
85.1
29.8
22.5
163.7
35.9
33.2
135.1
32.9
23.9
118.3
37.3
6.9
15.1
5.0
42.0
-.0
11.0
4.6
63.9
3.9
11.6
5.7
21.9
21.0
126.9
94.3
7.1
18.4
7.1
28.4
20.1
150.2
112.1
9.2
21.7
7.2
120.1
7.8
23.9
11.8
96.7
8.8
20.2
9.3
78.6
4.6
25.3
9.8
62.7
6.6
50.7
91.1
116.2
135.5
71.7
128.8
9.9
32.6
6.6
13.5
9.6
-10.5
-2.6
10.1
25.4
4.4
4.0
16.9
40.2
26.7
2.9
21.3
48.8
37.1
5.2
25.1
45.4
49.2
11.1
29.7
4.9
35.4
6.6
24.9
25.3
51.1
19.2
33.1
167.4
117.5
184.9
263.6
314.8
343.6
288.7
292.3
15.5
53.9
98.0
13.7
52.1
51.6
15.2
89.5
80.2
15.4
137.3
110.9
19.1
169.3
126.3
20.2
176.5
146.9
27.3
117.5
143.9
22.3
120.4
149.5
Farm
Nonfarm noncorporate
Corporate
7.8
20.2
69.9
8.5
12.5
30.7
10.2
15.4
54.5
12.3
28.3
70.4
14.6
32.4
79.3
21.4
34.4
91.2
14.4
33.8
95.7
16.4
40.5
92.6
Debt instruments
65.9
4.1
20.8
9.9
44.0
10.5
67.6
2.7
79.4
-.1
99.0
-7.8
82.8
12.9
104.1
-11.5
193.9
214.4
273.5
334.3
401.7
402.0
397.1
406.9
123.5
148.1
173.5
184.0
219.7
258.9
271.1
291.3
73.7
101.2
133.4
148.5
152.3
151.9
179.2
221.0
8.5
65.3
2.4
-2.2
-.2
15.6
83.3
1.3
.2
17.8
111.7
= .0
2.3
1.7
25.5
119.3
.2
2.2
25.6
110.3
6.9
7.5
2.0
27.2
82.2
34.4
6.6
1.5
14.5
127.8
29.2
6.5
27.8
82.9
107.5
2.5
50.4
50.7
44,7
72.5
122.9
-.6
-3.8
-4.6
21.8
2.1
13.2
10.1
11.7
-=-8.7
10.8
19.1
-4.6
33.4
.8
23.2
2.8
39.7
-1.6
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
Corporate equities
Debt instruments
Debt capital instruments
State and local government obligations.
Corporate bonds
Mortgages
Home
Multi-family residential
Commercial
Farm
Other debt instruments
Consumer credit
Bank loans n.e.c
Open-market paper
Other
By borrowing sector: Total
State and local governments
Households
Nonfinanciai business
Equities
Total funds supplied to nonfinancial sectors
123.6
2.7
260.9
169.8
Financed directly or indirectly by:
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
Deposits and currency
Checkable deposits and currency
Time and savings deposits
Money market fund shares
Security repurchase agreements
Foreign deposits
Credit market instruments
Corporate equities
Foreign funds
At banks
Credit and equity instruments
U.S. Government-related loans, net
U.S. Government cash balances
Private insurance and pension reserves
Other sources..
,
„.,
,
See next page for continuation of table.
236
1.3
39.0
-3.5
= 5.1
-15.9
1.1
89.7
2.1
101.9
-31.6
46.7
22.7
-4J
17.9
43.5
1.2
42.3
6.3
40.5
25.6
=2.9
5.6
-23.0
28.6
-8.8
22.3
20.4
3.0
47.7
15.7
17.6
.9
60.7
27.5
27.2
3.7
66.6
37.8
31.8
.5
60.0
28.1
29.0
-3.6
80.8
14.2
88.5
-20.8
13.6
34.2
TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 1974-82—Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1981
1982
Item
I
Total funds raised by nonfinancial sectors
431.9
II
III
I
V
I
52.5
62.7
123.0
94.8
101.4
221.2
35.7
18.9
20.9
15.5
16.5
1.3
356.3
299.2
226.7
251.5
281.6
257.2
- 3 . 4 -24.6 - 2 3 . 0
359.7 323.8 249.7
-5.3
256.8
5.0
276.6
.0
257.2
200.3
156.9
150.0
159.7
153.6
172.9
34.2
24.5
141.6
26.3
19.5
111.1
35.0
26.4
88.6
38.3
20.3
101.2
57.5
16.7
79.4
54.3
42.5
76.2
93.4
4.4
25.3
8.5
State and local government obligations....
Corporate bonds
Mortgages
Home
Multi-family residential
Commercial
Farm
Other debt instruments
479.7
36.0
25.0
131.8
Debt capital instruments
399.5
192.7
Debt instruments
361.8
5.2
281.8
Corporate equities
370.6
287.0
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
380.8
33.6
Foreign
444.5
111.3
U.S. Government
96.9
5.7
29.4
9.5
72.5
4.1
23.7
10.8
51.6
4.2
22.6
10.2
67.2
6.2
20.5
7.3
51.8
3.9
20.1
3.6
51.4
7.1
11.0
6.6
89.1
159.4
166.8
99.6
97.1
123.0
84.3
26.5
22.8
11.3
28.5
32.2
72.6
10.1
44.5
34.2
66.0
32.9
33.8
8.3
43.2
22.3
25.9
6.6
69.9
12.2
8.4
25.4
86.6
-5.3
16.4
8.2
46.6
-.9
30.4
287.0
356.3
299.2
226.7
251.5
281.6
257.2
27.1
135.0
125.0
23.1
147.1
186.1
14.8
128.1
156.4
24.3
71.7
130.7
25.6
82.1
143.8
46.9
97.2
137.4
39.2
81.6
136.5
Farm
Nonfarm noncorporate
Corporate
19.2
37.1
68.7
20.5
46.5
119.1
16.1
40.1
100.2
9.6
38.5
82.5
5.6
28.0
110.2
11.3
32.8
93.3
12.5
25.9
98.0
Debt instruments
63.5
5.2
122.5
-3.4
124.8
-24.6
105.5
-23.0
115.5
-5.3
88.3
5.0
98.0
.0
431.9
444.5
380.8
370.6
361.8
399.5
479.7
309.3
278.3
285.5
291.9
242.6
296.5
329.9
284.0
153.2
217.5
229.2
205.3
149.7
204.6
69.7
39.2
148.4
16.9
9.7
-5.2
-6.6
108.3 103.8
59.9 137.3
-1.6 -13.8
-3.2
-8.2
53.2
80.2
84.3
8.6
2.8
27.3
148.2
37.6
.3
-9.5
112.1
41.2
1.7
-5.8
123.5
86.5
7.6
154.2
89.5
Consumer credit
Bank loans n.e.c
Open-market paper
Other
By borrowing sector: Total
State and local governments
Households
Nonfinancial business
Equities
Total funds supplied to nonfinancial sectors
Financed directly or indirectly by:
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
Deposits and currency
Checkable deposits and currency
Time and savings deposits
Money market fund shares
Security repurchase agreements
Foreign deposits
40.9
Credit market instruments
4.1
-7.2
48.3
151.2
137.8
-11.0
-4.4
-12.5
-32.9
23.7
-45.6 - 4 6 . 0 - 1 6 . 3
19.9
13.0
40.0
-40.8
-61.7
20.9
-15.5
At banks
Credit and equity instruments
U.S. Government-related loans, net
U.S. Government cash balances
Private insurance and pension reserves
. Other sources
-55.0
-26.8
55.0
3.2
-25.7
-25.4
47.2
Foreign funds
-29.0
21.8
Corporate equities
24.0
31.0
11.9
-8.7
27.2
14.1
79.3
-19.7
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
-8.1
123.0
237
37.4
49.0
23.3
-2.5
-7.2 -3.8
85.3
95.0
94.7
- 4 . 3 -33.0 -26.1
10.0
23.2
84.2
34.7
10.1
-29.6
99.1
-.4
53.2
42.3
85.4
9.7
TABLE B-65.—Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929-82
[Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars]
Member bank reserves1
Reserve Bank credit outstanding
Year and month
1929: Dec.
1933: Dec.
1939: Dec.
Total
U.S.
Government
and Federal
agency
securities
Member bank
borrowings
Total
Other
Total
Required
Seasonal
1,643
2,669
2,612
446
2,432
2,510
801
95
3
396
142
99
2,395
2,588
11,473
2,347
* 1,822
6,462
1940:
1941:
1942:
1943:
1944:
1945:
1946:
1947:
1948:
1949:
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
2,305
2,404
6,035
11,914
19,612
24,744
24,746
22,858
23,978
19,012
2,188
2,219
5,549
11,166
18,693
23,708
23,767
21,905
23,002
18,287
3
5
4
90
265
334
157
224
134
118
114
180
482
658
654
702
822
729
842
607
14,049
12,812
13,152
12,749
14,168
16,027
16,517
17,261
19,990
16,291
7,403
9,422
10,776
11,701
12,884
14,536
15,617
16,275
19,193
15,488
1950:
1951:
1952:
1953:
1954:
1955:
1956:
1957:
1958:
1959:
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
21,606
25,446
27,299
27,107
26,317
26,853
27,156
26,186
28,412
29,435
20,345
23,409
24,400
25,639
24,917
24,602
24,765
23,982
26,312
27,036
142
657
1,593
441
246
839
688
710
557
906
1,119
1,380
1,306
1,027
1,154
1,412
1,703
1,494
1,543
1,493
17,391
20,310
21,180
19,920
19,279
19,240
19,535
19,420
18,899
18,932
16,364
19,484
20,457
19,227
18,576
18,646
18,883
18,843
18,383
18,450
29,060
31,217
33,218
36,610
39,873
43,853
46,864
51,268
56,610
64,100
27,248
29,098
30,546
33,729
37,126
40,885
43,760
48,891
52,529
57,500
87
149
304
327
243
454
557
238
765
1,086
1,725
1,970
2,368
2,554
2,504
2,514
2,547
2,139
3,316
5,514
19,283
20,118
20,040
20,746
21,609
22,719
23,830
25,260
27,221
28,031
18,514
19,550
19,468
20,210
21,198
22,267
23,438
24,915
26,766
27,774
1970: Dec
1971: Dec
1972: Dec
1973: Dec....
1974: Dec
1975: Dec
1976: Dec
1977: Dec
1978: Dec
1979: Dec
66,708
74,255
76,851
85,642
93,967
99,651
107,632
116,382
129,330
139,896
61,688
69,158
71,094
79,701
86,679
92,108
100,328
107,948
117,344
126,276
321
107
1,049
1,298
703
127
62
558
874
1,473
41
32
13
12
54
134
82
4,699
4,990
4,708
4,643
6,585
7,416
7,242
7,876
11,112
12,147
29,265
31,329
31,353
35,068
36,941
34,989
35,136
36,471
41,572
43,972
28,993
31,164
31,134
34,806
36,602
34,727
34,964
36,297
41,447
43,578
1980: Dec
1981: Dec
1982: Dec...
143,250
151,920
159,968
127,895
137,796
146,358
1,617
642
699
116
53
33
13,738
13,482
12,911
3 40,097
41,918
42,172
40,067
41,606
41,354
152,297
150,554
146,815
150,361
151,333
152,140
136,657
136,050
133,635
136,649
138,809
139,814
1,526
1,713
1,611
1,581
1,105
1,205
75
132
174
167
237
239
14,114
12,791
11,569
12,131
11,419
11,121
43,210
41,280
39,230
39,558
39,552
39,567
42,785
40,981
38,873
39,284
39,192
39,257
153,468
153,903
153,324
153,666
156,151
159,968
141,623
141,791
140,962
141,443
143,442
146,358
510
976
455
579
225
119
102
86
47
33
11,176
11,602
11,386
11,768
12,130
12,911
39,864
40,177
39,963
40,587
41,199
42,172
39,573
39,866
39,579
40,183
40,797
41,354
I960: Dec
1961: Dec
1962: Dec
1963: Dec
1964: Dec
1965: Dec
1966: Dec
1967: Dec
1968: Dec
1969: Dec
1982:
Jan..
Feb..,
Mar..
fc
June..
July
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec P....
1
Beginning December 1959, part of currency and cash held by member banks allowed as reserves; beginning November 1960 all such
currency and cash allowed.
Beginning November 1972, includes reserve deficiencies on which Federal Reserve Banks were allowed to waive penalties for a
transition period In connection with bank adaptation to Regulation J as amended effective November 9, 1972. Transition period ended
after second quarter 1974.
Effective November 1975, includes reserve deficiencies on which penalties are waived over a 24-month period when a nonmember
bank merges into an existing member bank, or when a nonmember bank joins the Federal Reserve System.
2
Data are for licensed banks only.
3
Includes all reserve balances of depository institutions plus vault cash at institutions with required reserve balances plus vault cash
equal to required reserves at other institutions.
4
Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks plus vault cash used to satisfy reserve requirements less required reserves. (This
measure of excess reserves is comparable to the old excess reserves concept published historically.)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
238
TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of depository institutions and monetary base, J959-82
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars]
Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements'
Seasonally adjusted
Year and month
Reserves of depository institutions
Total*
Nonborrowed
Required
Not seasonally adjusted
Monetary
base 3
Reserves of depository institutions
Total2
Nonborrowed
Required
Monetary
base3
14.94
13.99
14.43
44.3
15.22
14.28
14.72
45.2
I9601961196219631964-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
15.13
15.67
16.04
16.46
17.07
15.06
15.54
15.78
16.13
16.80
14.39
15.09
15.47
15.97
16.66
44.5
45.7
47.1
49.4
51.9
15.42
15.96
16.31
16.71
17.32
15.34
15.82
16.05
16.38
17.06
14.67
15.37
15 74
16.22
16.92
45 5
46.7
481
50.4
52.9
19651966:
ig6719681969-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
17.77
17.83
19.51
20.70
21.01
17.33
17.30
19.28
19.96
19.89
17.35
17.49
19.14
20.28
20.72
54.7
56.8
60.5
64.8
67.9
18.06
18.16
19.82
20.72
21.00
17.62
17.63
19.59
19.97
19.88
17 64
17.82
1945
20.29
20.72
579
618
197019711972:
19731974-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
22.13
23.58
26.32
27 63
29.25
21.80
23.45
25.27
2633
28.52
21.88
23.39
26.03
27 33
28.99
72.0
77.1
84.2
90.3
98.3
22.14
23.63
26.35
27.85
29.59
21.81
23 51
25.30
26 55
28.86
21.89
23 45
26.06
27 55
29.33
73.0
782
85.4
917
100.0
1975- Dec
1976* Dec
1977- Dec
1978- Dec
1979* Dec
29.29
29.86
31.17
32.82
34.26
29.16
29.81
30.60
31.95
32.79
29.02
29.59
30.98
32.59
33.93
104.5
112.0
121.4
132.2
142.5
29.70
30.27
31.67
33.37
34.83
29.57
30.22
31.11
32.50
33.35
29.43
30.00
3148
33.13
34.50
106 3
114.1
123 7
134.8
145.4
1980- Dec
1981* Dec
1982- Dec"
36.46
37.99
40.91
34.77
37.35
40.28
35.95
37.67
40.39
155.0
162.7
175.1
37.11
38.66
41.59
35.42
38.03
40.96
36.59
38.34
41.07
158 0
165.8
178.4
36 52
36.52
36 85
37.02
3718
37.20
3512
35.22
35 85
35.68
34 95
35.17
3614
36.17
36 57
36.85
36 92
36.86
155.4
156.0
156.7
158.0
158.5
158.9
38.01
36.28
36.24
36.88
36.89
36.68
36.62
34.97
35.24
35.54
34.66
34.65
37 64
35.93
35.96
36.71
36.63
36.35
156 5
154.3
154 9
157.0
157.9
158.4
37 28
37 34
37.72
37 60
37 62
37.99
35 60
3592
36.27
36 42
3695
37.35
36.94
37 05
37.31
37 33
37 27
37.67
159.6
1600
160.6
160.8
1612
162.7
37.24
37.06
37.52
37.70
37 78
38.66
35.56
3564
36.06
36.52
37.12
38.03
36.90
36 77
37.11
37.42
37 44
38.34
160 5
160 3
160.2
160 8
162 6
165.8
38.71
38 26
38 36
38 43
38.50
38.58
37.20
36 47
36 80
36 87
37.39
37.37
38.30
37 96
37 99
3816
38.15
38.27
164.3
164.7
165.2
166 5
167.7
168.8
40.04
38.05
37.80
38 33
38.19
38.07
38.52
36.26
36.24
36.76
37.07
36.86
39.62
37.75
37.44
38.06
37.83
37.76
165.3
162.9
163.3
165 6
167.1
168.2
38 52
38 80
39.57
39.88
40.46
40.91
37 83
38 29
38.63
39.40
39.84
40.28
38 21
38 49
39.18
39.47
40.06
40.39
169.2
170.1
171.9
172.8
173.7
175.1
38.43
38.51
39.35
40.00
40.68
41.59
37.74
38.00
38.42
39.52
40.06
40.96
38.12
38.20
38.97
39.59
40.28
41.07
170.0
170 4
171.4
172.9
175.1
178.4
1959- Dec
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
.
.. .
. .
.
Mv
a
June
July
SeDt
Oct
Nv
o
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
....
.
.
Apr
May
June
July
Auc
SeDt
Oct
Nov
0ec p
558
65.8
68.8
Reserve aggregates include required reserves of member banks and Edge Act corporations and other depository institutions.
Discontinuities associated with the implementation of the Monetary Control Act, the inclusion of Edge Act corporation reserves, and
other changes in Regulation D have been removed. Beginning with the week ended December 23, 1981, reserves aggregates have been
reduced by shifts of resemble liabilities to international banking facilities (IBFS), On the basis of reports of liabilities transferred to
IBFS by U.S. commercial banks and U.S. agencies and branches OT foreign banks, it is estimated that required reserves were lowered on
average by $10 to $20 million in December 1981 and $40 to $70 million in January 1982.
2
Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks (which exclude required clearing balances) plus vault cash at institutions with required
reserve balances plus vault cash equal to required reserves at other institutions.
3
Includes reserve balances and required clearing balances at Federal Reserve Banks in the current week plus vault cash held two
weeks earlier used to satisfy reserve requirements at all depository institutions plus currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve
Banks, the vaults of depository institutions, and surplus vault cash at depository institutions.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
239
TABLE B-67.—Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-82
[Percent per annum]
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)
U.S. Treasury securities
Year or
month
Constant
maturities 2
(new
Aaa
3-month
1929..
1933..
1939..
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982..
6-month
years
Baa
years
Highgrade
municipal
bonds
(Standard &
Poor's)
Prime
commercial
Prime rate
charged by
banks *
months
Discount
rate,
Federal
Bank of
New York*
Federal
funds
rate*
4.73
5.90
4.27
5.85
5.50-6.00
5.16
0.515
.023
.014
.103
.326
.373
.375
4.49
7.76
4.71
1.73
1.50-4.00
2.56
3.01
4.96
ZM
.59
1.50
1.00
2.84
2.77
2.83
2.73
2.72
4.75
4.33
4.28
3.91
3.61
2.50
2.10
2.36
2.06
1.86
.56
.53
.66
.69
.73
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
M.00
•1.00
8
1.00
.375
.375
.594
1.040
1.102
1.218
1.552
1.766
1.931
.953
2.62
2.53
2.61
2.82
2.66
3.29
3.05
3.24
3.47
3.42
1.67
1.64
2.01
2.40
2.21
.75
.81
1.03
1.44
1.49
1.50
1.50
1.50-1.75
1.75-2.00
2.00
•1.00
2.47
1.63
2.85
2.40
2.62
2.86
2.96
3.20
2.90
3.24
3.41
3.52
3.74
3.51
1.98
2.00
2.19
2.72
2.37
1.45
2.16
• 2.33
2.52
1.58
2.07
2.56
3.00
3.17
3.05
1.59
1.75
1.75
1.99
1.60
1.753
2.658
3.267
1.839
3.405
3.832
2.47
3.19
3.98
2.84
4.46
2.82
3.18
3.65
3.32
4.33
3.06
3.36
3.89
3.79
4.38
3.53
3.88
4.71
4.73
5.05
2.53
2.93
3.60
3.56
3.95
2.18
3.31
3.81
2.46
3.97
3.16
3.77
4.20
3.83
4.48
1.89
2.77
3.12
2.15
3.36
1.78
2.73
3.11
1.57
3.30
2.378
2.778
3.157
3.549
3.247
2.605
2.908
3.253
3.686
3.98
3.54
3.47
3.67
4.03
4.12
3.88
3.95
4.00
4.19
4.41
4.35
4.33
4.26
4.40
5.19
5.08
5.02
4.86
4.83
3.73
3.46
3.18
3.23
3.22
5.89
5.82
3.85
2.97
3.26
3.55
3.97
4.82
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
3.53
3.00
3.00
3.23
3.55
3.22
1.96
2.68
3.18
3.50
3.954
4.881
4.321
5.339
6.677
4.055
5.082
4.630
5.470
6.853
4.22
5.23
5.03
5.68
7.02
4.28
4.92
5.07
5.65
6.67
4.49
5.13
5.51
6.18
7.03
4.87
5.67
6.23
6.94
7.81
3.27
3.82
3.98
4.51
5.81
5.81
6.25
6.46
6.97
7.80
4.38
5.55
5.10
5.90
7.83
4.54
5.63
5.61
6.30
7.96
4.04
4.50
4.19
5.16
5.87
4.07
5.11
4.22
5.66
8.20
6.458
4.348
4.071
7.041
7.886
6.562
4.511
4.466
7.178
7.926
7.29
5.65
5.72
6.95
7.82
7.35
6.16
6.21
6.84
7.56
8.04
7.39
7.21
7.44
8.57
9.11
8.56
8.16
8.24
9.50
6.51
5.70
5.27
5.18
6.09
8.45
7.74
7.60
7.96
8.92
7.71
5.11
4.73
8.15
9.84
7.91
5.72
5.25
8.03
10.81
5.95
4.88
4.50
6.44
7.83
7.18
4.66
4.43
8.73
10.50
5.838
4.989
5.265
7.221
10.041
6.122
5.266
5.510
7.572
10.017
7.49
6.77
6.69
8.29
9.72
7.99
7.61
7.42
8.41
9.44
8.83
8.43
8.02
8.73
9.63
10.61
9.75
8.97
9.49
10.69
6.89
6.49
5.56
5.90
6.39
9.00
9.00
9.02
9.56
10.78
6.32
5.34
5.61
7.99
7
10.91
7.86
6.84
6.83
9.06
12.67
6.25
5.50
5.46
7.46
10.28
5.82
5.04
5.54
7.93
11.19
11.506
14.077
10.686
11.374
13.811
11.084
11.55
14.44
12.92
11.46
13.91
13.00
11.94
14.17
13.79
13.67
16.04
16.11
8.51
11.23
11.57
12.66
14.70
15.14
12.29
14.76
11.89
15.27
18.87
14.86
11.77
13.42
11.02
13.36
16.38
12.26
2.928
See next page for continuation of table.
240
•1.00
1.00
1.34
1.50
TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-82—Continued
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasury securities
Year or
month
Bills
(new
issues) 1
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)
Constant
maturities2
Aaa
3-month
6-month
3
years
Baa
10
years
Highgrade
Prime
Newmunicicomhome
pal
mercial
bonds mortgage paper.
views
(Stand3
ard& (FHLBB) months
Poor's)
Prime rate
charged by
banks
(high-low)4
Discount
rate,
Federal
Federal
Reserve
funds
Bank of
rate 5
New York
(high-low)*
1980:
Jan
Feb
Mar
...
Apr.;;;; ...
May.... ...
June...
12.036
12.814
15.526
14.003
9.150
6.995
11.851
12.721
15.100
13.618
9.149
7.218
10.88
12.84
14.05
12.02
9.44
8.91
10.80
12.41
12.75
11.47
10.18
9.78
11.09
12.38
12.96
12.04
10.99
10.58
12.42
13.57
14.45
14.19
13.17
12.71
7.21
8.04
9.09
8.40
7.37
7.60
11.87
11.93
12.62
13.03
13.68
12.66
12.66
13.60
16.50
14.93
9.29
8.03
15.25-15.25
16.75-15.25
19.50-16.75
20.00-19.50
19.00-14,00
14.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
13.00-12.00
13.00-13.00
13.00-13.00
13.00-12.00
12.00-11.00
13.82
14.13
17.19
17.61
10.98
9.47
July....
Aug....
Sept...
Oct
Nov
Dec
8.126
9.259
10.321
11.580
13.888
15.661
8.101
9.443
10.546
11.566
13.612
14.770
9.27
10.63
11.57
12.01
13.31
13.65
10.25
11.10
11.51
11.75
12.68
12.84
11.07
11.64
12.02
12.31
12.97
13.21
12.65
13.15
13.70
14.23
14.64
15.14
8.08
8.62
8.95
9.11
9.55
10.09
12.48
12.25
12.35
12.61
13.04
13.28
8.29
9.61
11.04
12.32
14.73
16.49
12.00-11.00
11.50-11.00
13.00-11.50
14.50-13.50
17.75-14.50
21.50-17.75
11.00-10.00
10.00-10.00
11.00-10.00
11.00-11.00
12.00-11.00
13.00-12.00
9.03
9.61
10.87
12.81
15.85
18.90
June
tzz:
14.724
14.905
13.478
13.635
16.295
14.557
13.883
14.134
12.983
13.434
15.334
13.947
13.01
13.65
13.51
14.09
15.08
14.29
12.57
13.19
13.12
13.68
14.10
13.47
12.81
13.35
13.33
13.88
14.32
13.75
15.03
15.37
15.34
15.56
15.95
15.80
9.65
10.03
10.12
10.55
10.73
10.56
13.26
13.54
14.02
14.15
14.10
14.67
15.10
14.87
13.59
14.17
16.66
15.22
21.50-20.00
20.00-19.00
19.00-17.50
18.00-17.00
20.50-18.00
20.50-20.00
13.00-13.00
13.00-13.00
13.00-13.00
13.00-13.00
14.00-13.00
14.00-14.00
19.08
15.93
14.70
15.72
18.52
19.10
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
14.699
15.612
14.951
13.873
11.269
10.926
14.402
15.548
15.057
14.013
11.530
11.471
15.15
16.00
16.22
15.50
13.11
13.66
14.28
14.94
15.32
15.15
13.39
13.72
14.38
14.89
15.49
15.40
14.22
14.23
16.17
16.34
16.92
17.11
16.39
16.55
11.03
12.13
12.86
12.67
11.71
12.77
14.72
15.27
15.29
15.65
16.38
15.87
16.09
16.62
15.93
14.72
11.96
12.14
20.50-20.00
20.50-20.50
20.50-19.50
19.50-18.00
18.00-16.00
15.75-15.75
14.00-14.00
14.00-14.00
14.00-14.00
14.00-14.00
14.00-13.00
13.00-12.00
19.04
17.82
15.87
15.08
13.31
12.37
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar....
Ape
May,...
June...
12.412
13.780
12.493
12.821
12.148
12.108
12.930
13.709
12.621
12.861
12.220
12.310
14.64
14.73
14.13
14.18
13.77
14.48
14.59
14.43
13.86
13.87
13.62
14.30
15.18
15.27
14.58
14.46
14.26
14.81
17.10
17.18
16.82
16.78
16.64
16.92
13.16
12.81
12.72
12.45
11.99
12.42
15.25
15.12
15.67
15.84
15.89
15.40
13.35
14.27
13.47
13.64
13.02
13.79
15.75-15.75
17.00-15.75
16.50-16.50
16.50-16.50
16.50-16.50
16.50-16.50
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
13.22
14.78
14.68
14.94
14.45
14.15
July....
Aug....
Sept...
Oct
Nov
Dec
11.914
9.006
8.196
7.750
8.042
8.013
12.236
10,105
9.539
8.299
8.319
6.225
14.00
12.62
12.03
10.62
9.98
9.88
13.95
13.06
12.34
10.91
10.55
10.54
14.61
13.71
12.94
12.12
11.68
11.83
16.80
16.32
15.63
14.73
14.30
14.14
12.11
11.12
10.61
9.59
9.97
9.91
15.70
15.68
14.98
14.41
13.81
13.70
13.00
10.80
10.86
9.21
8.72
8.50
16.50-15.50 12.00-11.50
15.50-13.50 11.50-10.00
13.50-13.50 10.00-10.00
13.50-12.00 10.00-9.50
9.50-9.00
12.00-11.50
9.00-8.50
11.50-11.50
12.59
10.12
10.31
9.71
9.20
8.95
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
1
3
Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
'Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and
assuming on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.
«For monthly data, high and low for the period. Prime rate for 1929-33 and 1947-48 are ranges of the rate in effect during the
period.
6
Since July 19, 1975, the daily effective rate is an average of the rates on a given day weighted by the volume of transactions at
these rates. Prior to that date, the daily effective rate was the rate considered most representative of the day's transactions, usually
the8 one at which most transactions occurred.
From October 30, 1942, to April 24, 1946, a preferential rate of 0.50 percent was in effect for advances secured by Government
securities maturing in 1 year or less.
7
Beginning November 1979, data are for 6-months paper.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB),
Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
241
TABLE B-68.—Consumer credit outstanding and net change, 1930-82
[Millions of dollars]
Net change from preceding period
Amount outstanding (end of month)
Year and month
Installment credit l
Total
Total
Automobile
Revolving 2
Mobile
home 8
Other
Noninstallment
credit 4
Total
Total
1,518
910
1,033
401
819
1,778
1,018
651
615
2,255
4,363
2,531
6,282
8,888
9,786
10,616
6,542
5,681
11,519
10,793
3,928
976
4,967
6,835
7,743
8,309
5,458
3,809
8,533
9,480
1,451
-484
2,325
2,918
2,975
3,538
1,637
139
3,217
2,598
435
1,555
1,315
2,053
2,043
2,307
1,084
1,872
2,986
1,313
37,585
39,540
44,466
47,969
48,833
51,144
55,391
58,569
64,271
71,339
5,371
14,682
19,844
25,438
10,350
9,713
25,776
40,217
48,784
45,446
4,367
12,727
14,918
21,935
9,486
7,402
21,529
37,039
43,081
38,379
-621
4,194
7,343
5,910
494
2,976
10,465
15,204
18,736
14,715
1,004
1955
4,926
3,503
864
2,311
4,247
3,178
5,703
7,067
74,767
80,169
4,876
25,305
1,448 476
19,903
9,593
25,641
27,268
32,551
36,736
38,192
45,348
49,268
52,191
52,702
60,741
15,503
16,220
20,470
24,254
24,891
30,269
33,171
35,443
35,339
41,123
6,015
5,958
7,635
9,685
9,747
13,471
14,484
15,472
14,258
16,632
9,488
10,262
12,835
14,569
15,144
16,79a
18,687
19,971
21,081
24,491
10,138
11,048
12,081
12,482
13,301
15,079
16,097
16,748
17,363
19,618
4,789
1,627
5,283
4,185
1,456
7,156
3,920
2,923
511
8,039
I960: Dec
1961: Dec
1962: Dec
1963: Dec
1964: Dec
1965: Dec
1966: Dec
1967: Dec
1968: Dec
1969: Dec
65,104
67,635
73,917
82,805
92,591
103,207
109,749
115,430
126,949
137,742
45,051
46,027
50,994
57,829
65,572
73,881
79,339
83,148
91,681
101,161
18,083
17,599
19,924
22,842
25,817
29,355
30,992
31,131
34,348
36,946
2,105
3,720
26,968
28,428
31,070
34,987
39,755
44,526
48,347
52,017
55,228
60,495
20,053
21,608
22,923
24,976
27,019
29,326
30,410
32,282
35,268
36,581
1970:
1971:
1972:
1973:
1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
143,113
157,795
177,639
203,077
213,427
223,140
248,916
289,133
337,917
383,363
105,528
118,255
133,173
155,108
164,594
171,996
193,525
230,564
273,645
312,024
36,325
40,519
47,862
53,772
54,266
57,242
67,707
82,911
101,647
116,362
5,128
8,528
9,700
11,709
13,681
15,019
17,189
39,274
48,309
56,937
2,461
7,226
9,526
13,580
14,642
14,434
14,573
14,945
15,235
16,838
61,614
61,982
66,085
76,047
82,005
85,301
94,056
93,434
108,454
121,887
388,239
413,544
313,472
333,375
116,838
126,431
58,352
63,049
17,322
18,486
120,960
125,409
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec...
Dec
1980: Dec.
1981: Dec
Seasonally adjusted
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar....
Noninstallment
credit4
Automobile
1,537
3,271
-57
717
1,677
4,250
2,050
3,784
62
637
3,724
5,378
1,013
2,902
2,272
988
- 1 0 4 -1,214
5,784
2,374
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
1950:
1951:
1952:
1953:
1954:
1955:
1956:
1957:
1958:
1959:
Installment
credit»
3,428
5,402
s
%~
June...
July...,
Aug....
Sept...
Oct
Nov
Dec
384,847
383,232
385,685
388,857
391,077
394,531
310,760
309,385
311,071
313,669
315,679
318,792
115,778
116,195
118,049
119,076
119,582
120,400
57,556
56,047
55,356
55,716
55,820
56,798
17,202
17,113
17,162
17,342
17,576
17,704
120,224
120,030
120,504
121,535
122,701
123,890
74,087
73,847
74,614
75,188
75,398
75,739
1,704
1,962
3,208
3,518
2,078
2,708
1,206
1,845
2,971
2,722
1,571
2,031
31
831
1,526
648
-114
149
498
117
237
796
507
677
397,210
401,449
406,234
406,670
407,970
413,544
320,656
324,161
328,187
328,652
329,053
333,375
121,476
123,481
125,703
126,344
126,385
126,431
56,764
57,280
58,318
58,451
58,923
63,049
17,760
17,959
18,124
18,300
18,380
18,486
124,656
125,441
126,042
125,557
125,365
125,409
76,554
77,288
78,047
78,018
78,917
80,169
2,791
2,557
3,430
584
1,212
432
1,551
2,428
2,975
1,002
600
-33
1,056
1,859
2,079
1,024
564
68
1,240
129
455
-418
612
465
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar...,
Apr
May....
June...
409,444
406,682
406,520
408,109
409,500
412,599
330,135
327,435
327,131
328,363
329,338
331,851
125,525
125,294
125,559
126,201
127,220
128,415
18,397
18,343
18,363
18,402
18,479
18,543
124,780
124,284
124,718
125,119
124,992
125,591
79,309
79.247
79,389
79,746
80,162
80,748
1,620
-516
554
2,058
2,001
2,279
443
75
990
1,175
1,399
1,349
-121
-56
-28
233
959
655
1,177
-591
-436
883
602
930
July....
Aug....
Sept...
Oct
Nov
413,366
415,140
417,624
417,422
419,768
332,471
333,808
335,948
334,977
336,991
128,359
128,281
129,085
128,619
129,594
61,433
59,514
58,491
58,641
58,647
59,302
59,824
60,475
60,932
60,917
61,500
18,601
18,741
18,778
18,814
18,821
125,687
126,311
127,153
126,627
127,076
80,895
81,332
81,676
82,445
82,777
992
-149
1,138
54
2,656
570
66
1,092
-324
2,523
61
-402
505
-78
1,816
422
-215
46
378
133
1
Installment credit covers most short* and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals through regular business channels,
usually to finance the purchase of consumer goods and services or to refinance debts incurred for such purposes, and scheduled to be
repaid (or with the option of repayment) in two or more installments. Credit secured by real estate is generally excluded.
a
Consists of credit cards at retailers, gasoline companies, and commercial banks, and check credit at commercial banks. Prior to
1968, included in "other," except gasoline companies, included in noninstallment credit prior to 1971. Beginning 1977, includes openend credit at retailers, previously included in other. Also beginning 1977, some retail credit was reclassified from commercial into
consumer credit.
4
Because of inconsistencies in the data and infrequent benchmarking, series on noninstallment credit is no longer published by the
Federal Reserve Board on a regular basis. Data are shown here as a general indication of trends.
o For installment credit, computed as the difference between extensions and liquidations (both seasonally adjusted); see also Table
B-69. For noninstallment credit, computed as the change from one month to another in the seasonally adjusted amount outstanding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
242
TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment credit extended and liquidated, 1950-82
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Total
Year or month
Extended
Automobile
Liquidated
Extended
Revolving *
Liquidated
Extended
Liquidated
Mobile home 2
Extended
Liquidated
Other
Extended
Liquidated
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...,
1955....
1956....
1957....
1958....
1959...,
22,130
24,583
30,616
32,579
32,265
40,263
40,886
43,101
40,956
49,134
18,861
23,867
26,355
28,794
31,625
34,882
37,899
40,759
41,290
43,395
8,445
8,951
11,610
12,740
11,741
16,732
15,572
16,554
14,287
18,008
6,906
9,008
9,932
10,689
11,679
13,008
14,559
15,567
15,501
15,638
13,685
15,632
19,006
19,839
20,524
23,531
25,314
26,547
26,669
31,126
11,955
14,859
16,423
18,105
19,946
21,874
23,340
25,192
25,789
27,757
1960...
1961....
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...,
1967...,
1968....
1969...,
50,827
50,598
57,562
64,660
72,445
79,918
83,821
89,058
101,426
109,422
47,022
49,735
52,601
57,822
64,616
71,616
78,365
85,194
92,075
99,945
18,112
16,477
20,164
22,617
24,792
27,913
27,844
27,623
32,228
33,686
16,661
16,960
17,840
19,699
21,815
24,386
26,206
27,482
29,013
31.090
3,481
6,182
2,726
4,567
32,715
34,121
37,398
42,043
47,653
52,005
55,977
61,435
65,717
69,554
30,361
32,775
34,761
38,123
42,801
47,230
52,159
57,712
60,336
64,288
1970...,
1971...,
1972...
1973....
1974...,
1975...,
1976...,
1977...,
1978...,
1979...
115,007
138,046
152,275
173,035
172,765
180,083
210,740
257,600
297,668
324,777
110,352
127,789
136,787
152,817
163,276
172,675
189,179
222,138
254,589
286,396
30,857
36,706
43,702
49,606
46,514
52,420
63,743
75,641
87,981
93,901
31,414
32,512
38,081
43,696
46,019
49,444
53,278
60,437
69,245
79,186
8,689
21,862
24,659
28,702
33,213
36,956
43,934
87,596
105,125
120,174
7,278
20,818
23,485
26,699
31,243
35,616
41,764
81,348
96,090
111,546
612
2,521
5,121
7,061
5,788
4,326
4,859
5,712
5,412
6,471
478
1,754
2,975
4,184
4,720
4,536
4,720
5,341
5,126
4,868
74,849
76,957
78,793
87,666
87,250
86,381
98,204
88,651
99,150
104,231
71,188
72,705
72,246
78,238
81,294
83,079
89,417
75,012
84,128
90,796
1980...,
1931...,
306,076
336,341
304,628
316,447
83,454
94,404
82,977
84,809
128,068
140,135
126,653
135,438
5,093
6,028
4,610
4,867
89,461
95,774
90,388
91,333
27,466
28,682
29,370
29,271
28,377
29,223
26,260
26,837
26,399
26,549
26,806
27,192
7,343
8,229
8,499
7,459
7,384
7,515
7,312
7,398
6,973
6,811
7,498
7,366
11,535
11,738
11,620
12,383
11,876
12,658
10.944
11,419
11,110
11,443
11,520
11,651
392
405
616
593
620
509
451
492
552
410
372
399
8,196
8,310
8,635
8,836
8,497
8,541
7,553
7,528
7,764
7,885
7,416
7,776
28,290
28.323
29,406
26,836
27,370
26,656
26,739
25,895
26,431
25,834
26,770
26,689
8,059
8,396
9,000
7,490
8,073
7,352
7,003
6,537
6,921
6,466
7,509
7,284
11,706
11,663
12,263
11,753
11,379
11,592
11,590
11,486
11,692
11,429
11,358
11,533
445
520
532
475
479
508
386
364
375
353
404
365
7,744
7,611
7,118
7,439
7,204
7,760
7,508
7,443
7,586
7,499
7,507
26,888
27,150
27,462
28,684
29,197
29,737
27,514
27,579
28,268
28,062
31,610
26,445
27,075
26,472
27,509
27,798
28,388
7,474
7,283
7,183
7,871
8,429
8,182
26,944
27,513
27,176
28,386
29,087
7,332
7,112
7,546
7,970
10,329
7,595
7,339
7,211
7,638
7,470
7.527
7,271
7,514
7,041
8,048
8,513
11,070
11,730
12,143
12,416
12,528
13,361
12,551
12,497
12,464
12,340
12,489
11,266
11,885
11,836
11,917
11,991
12,854
11,939
12,354
12,254
12,232
12,382
434
364
411
544
478
459
441
581
452
476
484
460
408
396
493
408
392
378
440
442
480
444
7,910
7,773
7,725
7,853
7,762
7,735
7,190
7,389
7,806
7,276
8,308
7,124
7,443
7,029
7,461
7,929
7,615
7,356
7,205
7,439
7,626
7,748
1981:
Jan..,
Feb..
Mar.,
fe
June,
July.
Aug.
Sept
Oct..
Nov.
Dec.
1982:
Jan..
Feb..
Mar.
Apr..
May.
June
July.
Aug.
Sept
Oct..
Nov.
1
Consists of credit cards at retailers, gasoline companies, 2nd commercial banks, and check credit at commercial banks. Prior to
1968, included in "other," except gasoline companies, included in noninstallment credit prior to 1971. Beginning 1977, includes openend credit at retailers, previously included in ''other/' Also beginning 1977, some retail credit was reclassified from commercial into
consumer credit.
2
Not reported separately prior to July 1970.
Note.—Installment credit covers most short- and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals through regular business channels,
usually to finance the purchase of consumer goods and services or to refinance debts incurred for such purposes, and scheduled to be
repaid (or with the option of repayment) in two or more installments. Credit secured by real estate is generally excluded.
Liquidated credit includes repayments, chargeoffs, 2nd other credit.
See also Table 6-68.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
243
TABLE B-70.—Mortgage debt outstanding by type ofproperty and offinancing,1939-82
[Billions of dollars]
Nonfarm properties
Nonfarm properties by type of mortgage
Conventional3
Government underwritten
End of year
or quarter
All
properties
Farm
properties
Total
Multi- Com1- to 4- family mercial
family proper- properhouses
ties 1
ties
1- to 4-family houses
Total 2
Total
VA
FA
H
guarinsured anteed
Total
1- to 4family
houses
1939
35.5
6.6
28.9
16.3
5.6
7.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
27.1
14.5
1940..,..
1941
1942
1943
1944
36.5
37.6
36.7
35.3
34.7
6.5
6.4
6.0
5.4
4.9
30.0
31.2
30.8
29.9
29.7
17.4
18.4
18.2
17.8
17.9
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.6
6.9
7.0
6.7
6.3
6.2
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2
2.3
3.0
37
4.1
4.2
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2
27.7
28.2
27.1
25.8
25.5
15.1
15.4
14.5
137
137
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
35.5
41.8
48.9
56.2
62.7
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.6
30.8
36.9
43.9
50.9
57.1
18.6
23.0
28.2
33.3
37.6
5.7
6.1
6.6
7.5
8.6
6.4
7.7
9.1
10.2
10.8
4.3
6.3
9.8
13.6
17.1
4.3
6.1
9.3
12.5
15.0
4.1
37
3.8
5.3
6.9
0.2
2.4
5.5
7.2
8.1
26.5
30.6
34.1
37.3
40.0
14.3
16.9
18.9
20.8
22.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
72.8
82.3
91.4
101.3
113.7
6.1
6.7
7.2
77
8.2
66.7
75.6
84.2
93.6
105.4
45.2
51.7
58.5
66.1
75.7
10.1
11.5
12.3
12.9
13.5
11.5
12.5
13.4
14.5
16.3
22.1
26.6
29.3
32.1
36.2
18.8
22.9
25.4
28.1
32.1
8.5
97
10.8
12.0
12.8
10.3
13,2
14.6
16.1
19.3
44.7
49.1
54.9
61.5
69.3
26.3
28.9
33.2
38.0
43.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
129.9
144.5
156.5
171.8
190.8
9.0
9.8
10.4
11.1
12.1
120.9
134.6
146.1
160.7
178.7
88.2
99.0
107.6
117.7
130.9
14.3
14.9
15.3
16.8
18.7
18.3
20.7
23.2
26.1
29.2
42.9
47.8
51.6
55.2
59.3
38.9
43.9
47.2
50.1
53.8
14.3
15.5
16.5
19.7
23.8
24.6
28.4
30.7
30.4
30,0
78.0
86.8
94.6
105.5
119.4
49.3
55.1
60.4
67.6
77.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
207.5
228.0
251.4
278.5
305.9
12.8
13.9
15.2
16.8
18.9
194.7
214.1
236.2
261.7
287.0
141.9
154.6
169.3
186.4
203.4
20.3
23.0
25.8
29.0
33.6
32.4
36.5
41.1
46.2
50.0
62.3
65.6
69.4
73.4
77.2
56.4
59.1
62.2
65.9
69.2
267
29.5
32.3
35.0
38.3
29.7
29.6
29.9
30.9
30.9
132.3
148.5
166.9
188.2
209.8
85.5
95.5
107.1
120.5
134.1
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
333.3
356.5
381.2
410.9
441.4
21.2
23.1
25.1
27.4
29.2
312.1
333.4
356.1
383.5
412.2
220.5
232.9
247.3
264.8
283.2
37.2
40.3
43.9
47.3
52.2
54.5
60.1
64.8
71.4
76.9
81.2
84.1
88.2
93.4
100.2
73.1
76.1
79.9
84.4
90.2
42.0
44.8
47.4
50.6
54.5
31.1
31.3
32.5
33.8
35.7
231.0
249.3
267.9
290.1
312.0
147.4
156.9
167.4
180.4
193.0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
474.2
526.5
603.4
681.6
744.3
30.3
32.2
35.8
41.3
46.3
443.8
494.3
567.7
640.3
698.0
298.1
328.3
372.2
415.5
451.2
60.1
70.1
B2.S
93.1
100.0
85.6
95.9
1127
131.7
146.9
109.2
120.7
131.1
135.0
140.2
97.3
105.2
113.0
116.2
121.3
59.9
65.7
68.2
66.2
65.1
37.3
39.5
44.7
50.0
56.2
334.6
373.5
436.5
505.3
557.8
200.8
223.1
259.2
299.2
329.9
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
806.1
893.0
1,022.6
1,173.6
1,337.7
51.1
56.6
63.6
70.8
82.7
755.0
836.4
958.9
1,102.8
1,255.1
495.0
560.7
657.8
770.6
891.1
100.6
104.5
111.5
120.7
128.4
159.3
171.2
189.6
211.4
235.6
147.0
154.1
161.7
176.4
199.0
1277
133.5
141.6
153.4
172.9
66.1
66.5
68.0
71.4
81.0
61.6
67.0
73.6
82.0
92.0
608.0
682.3
797.2
926.4
1,056.1
367.3
427.1
516.2
617.3
718.1
1980
1981
1,471.8
1,583.5
92.0
101.7
1,379.8
1,481.8
987.0
1,060.5
137.1
141.4
255.7
279.9
225.1
239.0
195.2
207.6
93.6
101.3
101.6
106,2
1,154.7
1,242.8
791.8
852.9
1980:
I
II
Ill
IV
1,371.1
1,398.1
1,435.5
1,471.8
86.0
89.0
90.6
92.0
1,285.1
1,309.0
1,344.9
1,379.8
914.3
931.6
960.7
987.0
130.0
132.4
134.6
137.1
240.9
245.1
249.6
255.7
207.5
211.6
218.9
225.1
180.8
184.1
190.0
195.2
86.0
87.4
90.6
93.6
94.8
967
99.4
101.6
1,077.6
1,097.4
1,126.0
1,1547
733.4
747.5
770.7
791.8
1981:
|
II .."I
III
IV
1,497.6
1,533.2
1,561.6
1,583.5
94.5
97.5
100.0
101.7
1,403.1
1,435.7
1,461.6
1,481.8
1,004.0
1,028.3
1,047.6
1,060.5
138.1
139.3
140.2
141.4
261.0
268.1
273.7
279.9
229.1
233.6
237.0
239.0
198.8
202.7
205.9
207.6
95.7
98.1
100.0
101.3
103.1
104.6
105.9
106.2
1,174.0
1,202.0
1,224.6
1,242.8
805.2
825.6
8417
852.9
1,602.8
1,624.2
1,635.8
103.6
105.5
106.7
1,499.2
1,518.7
1,529.1
1,071.9
1,085.2
1.092.3
142.9
143.8
144.7
284.4
289.7
292.2
240.6
209.0
102.0
107.0
1,258.6
862.9
I
1982:
in""!!!;
1
2
8
Includes negligible amount of farm loans held by savings and loan associations.
Includes FHA insured multifamily properties, not shown separately.
Derived figures. Total includes multifamily and commercial properties, not shown separately.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, based on data from various Government and private organizations.
244
TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstanding by bolder, 1939-82
[Billions of dollars]
Other holders
Major financial institutions
End of year
or quarter
Total
Total
Savings
and loan
associations
Mutual
savings
banks
Commercial
banks i
Life
insurance
companies
Federal
and
related
agencies 2
Individuals and
others
1939
35.5
18.6
3.8
4.8
4.3
5.7
5.0
11.9
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
36.5
37.6
36 7
35.3
34.7
19.5
20.7
20.7
20.2
20.2
4.1
4.6
6.0
4.9
4.9
4.7
6.4
6.7
4.7
4.3
4.6
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.4
6.7
6.7
3.6
3.0
12.0
12.2
11.7
11.5
11.5
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
35.5
41.8
48 9
56.2
62.7
21.0
26.0
31.8
37.8
42.9
5.4
7.1
8.9
10.3
11.6
4.2
4.4
4.9
5.8
6.7
4.8
7.2
9.4
10.9
11.6
6.6
7.2
8.7
10.8
12.9
2.4
2.0
1.8
1.8
2.3
12.1
13.8
15.3
16.6
17.5
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
72.8
82 3
914
101.3
113.7
51.7
59.5
66.9
75.1
85.7
13.7
15.6
18.4
22.0
26.1
8.3
9.9
11.4
12.9
15.0
13.7
14.7
15.9
16.9
18.6
16.1
19.3
21.3
23.3
26.0
2.8
3.5
4.1
18.4
19.3
20.4
21.7
23.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
129 9
144.5
314
1565
1718
190.8
99.3
111.2
119.7
131.5
145.5
35.7
40.0
45.6
53.1
17.5
19.7
21.2
23.3
25.0
21.0
22.7
23.3
25.5
28.1
29.4
33.0
35.2
37.1
39.2
10.2
25.3
27.1
29.1
32.3
35.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
207 5
228.0
251.4
278 5
305.9
157.6
172.6
192.5
217.1
241.0
601
68.8
78.8
90.9
101.3
26.9
29.1
32.3
36.2
40.6
28.8
30.4
34.5
39.4
44.0
41.8
44.2
46.9
50.5
55.2
11.5
12.2
12.6
11.8
12.2
38.4
43.1
46.3
49.5
52.7
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
333 3
356.5
381.2
4109
441.4
264.6
280.8
298.8
319.9
339.1
110 3
114.4
121.8
130.8
140.2
44.6
47.3
50.5
53.5
56.1
49.7
54.4
59.0
65.7
70.7
60.0
64.6
67.5
70.0
72.0
13.5
17.5
20.9
25.1
31.1
55.2
58.2
61.4
65.9
71.2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
474 2
526 5
603.4
681.6
744 3
355.9
394.2
450.0
505.4
542.6
150.3
174.3
206.2
231.7
249.3
57.9
62.0
67.6
73.2
74.9
73.3
82.5
99.3
119.1
132.1
74.4
75.5
76.9
81.4
86.2
38.3
46.4
54.6
64.8
82.1
79.9
85.9
98.9
111.4
119.7
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
806.1
893 0
1,022.6
1,173.6
1,337.7
581.2
647.5
745.0
848.2
938.6
278.6
323.0
381.2
432.8
475.7
77,2
81.6
88.1
95.2
98.9
136.2
151.3
179.0
214.0
245.2
89.2
91.6
96.8
106.2
118.8
101.0
116.6
f40.3
170.4
215.7
123.8
128.9
137.2
155.0
183.4
1980
1981
1,471.8
1,583.5
997.2
1,040.6
503.2
518.4
99.9
100.0
263.0
284.5
131.1
137.7
256.6
289.1
218.1
253.8
1980:
I.
||
Ill
IV
1,371.1
1,398.1
1,435 5
1,471.8
951.2
958.8
977.5
997.2
479.0
481.1
492.1
503.2
99.2
99.2
99.3
99.9
250.7
253.0
258.0
263.0
122.4
125.6
128.1
131.1
228.6
238.2
247.1
256.6
191.4
201.1
210.9
218.1
1981:
I
II
Ill
IV
1,497.6
1,533.2
1,561.6
1,583.5
1,006.9
1,023.1
1,033.8
1,040.6
507.6
515.3
518.8
518.4
99.7
100.0
10O.O
100.0
266.7
273.2
279.0
284.5
132.9
134.7
136.0
137.7
263.5
271.4
279.9
289.1
227.2
238.6
247.9
253.8
1,602.8
1,624.2
1,635.8
1,041.5
1,042.7
1,028.8
515.9
512.7
495.4
97.5
96.3
94.2
289.4
294.0
298.3
138.8
139.5
140.8
301.0
315.1
333.2
260.3
266.4
273.8
4.6
4.6
1982:
||
HI
1
2
4.6
4.8
5.3
6.2
7.7
8.0
Includes loans held by nondeposit trust companies, but not by bank trust departments.
Includes former Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and new Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), as well
as Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration, Public Housing Administration, Farmers Home Administration, and in earlier
years Reconstruction Finance Corporation, Homeowners Loan Corporation, and Federal Farm Mortgage Corporation. A!so includes GNMA
Pools and U.S.-sponsored agencies such as new FNMA, Federal Land Banks, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. Other U.S.
agencies (amounts small or current separate data not readily available) included with "individuals and others.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, based on data from various Government and private organizations.
245
GOVERNMENT FINANCE
TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receipts, outlays, and debt,fiscalyears 1973-84
[Millions of dollars; fiscal years]
Actual^
Description
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition
quarter
1978
1977
BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS:
Total receipts
Federal funds
Trust funds
Interfund transactions
Total outlays
Federal funds
Trust funds
Interf und transactions
Total surplus or deficit ( - )
399,561
270,490
165,568
=36,498
448,368
331,991
152,874
-36,498
=48,807
-11,004
-=1,952
355,559
241,312
150,560
= 36,313
400,506
295,756
141,063
-36,313
=44,948
=54,444
9,496
631,866
151,566
480,300
94,714
385,586
646,379
148,052
498,327
96,702
401,625
709,138
157,295
551,843
105,004
446,839
780,425
169,477
610,948
115,480
495,468
298,060
81,232
38,801
8,460
25,219
4,473
1,455
1,212
355,559
157,626
54,892
106,485
17,548
7,327
5,150
399,561
118,952
38,620
75,071
16,844
5,035
3,334
279,090
122,386
40,621
84,534
16,551
4,611
3,676
5,777
935
324,245
5,451
2,576
364,473
74,541
4,066
77,781
5,681
85,552
6,922
89,430
5,554
5,908
623
400,506
97,501
4,819
6,641
778
245,647
4,845
523
267,912
4,030
1.179
4,763
4,852
924
9,065
4,595
3,977
837
5,670
2,227
3,925
9,172
4,134
3,989
1,659
5,607
10,388
3,738
4,370
3,127
8,124
21502
3,792
13,435
4,767
199,918
89,126
= 21,133
-4,688
279,090
187,505
116,683
-25,098
324,245
240,081
109,261
-25,098
-=45,154
201.099
131,750
-34,789
364,473
269,921
129,341
-=34,789
= 66,413
81,232
54,085
31,530
-4,383
94,188
65,088
33,482
-4,383
-12,956
14,011
-52,576
7,422
-68,822
2,409
468,426
125,381
343,045
75,181
267,863
486,247
544,131
140,194
346,053
80,648
265,405
147,225
396,906
84,993
311,913
230,799
263,224
103,246
36,153
230,799
161,357
90,766
21,325
245,647
186,951
80,021
-21,325
= 14,849
=25,593
10,745
263,224
181,219
103,138
-21,133
267,912
298,060
=61,501
12,694
Federal funds
Trust funds
OUTSTANDING DEBT, END OF PERIOD:
Gross Federal debt
Held by Government agencies
Held by the public
Federal Reserve System
Other
BUDGET RECEIPTS
Individual income taxes
Corporation income taxes
Social insurance taxes and contributions
Excise taxes
Estate and gift taxes
Customs duties
Miscellaneous receipts:
Deposits of earnings by Federal
Reserve System
AH other
BUDGET OUTLAYS
63,115
16,260
4,917
3,188
131,603
41,409
90,769
16,963
5,216
4,074
Natural resources and environment
Agriculture
Commerce and housing credit
Transportation...
Community and regional development..
Education, training, employment, and
social services
Health
Income security
Veterans benefits and services
Administration of justice
General government
General purpose fiscal assistance
Net interest
Allowances
Undistributed offsetting receipts
12,735
17,405
72,965
12,013
2,131
2,568
7351
17,346
12,344
20,364
84,437
13,386
2,462
3,243
6,890
21,449
15,870
25,742
108,576
16,597
2,942
3,133
7,187
23,244
18,737
31,503
127,390
18,432
3,320
2,948
7,235
26,711
-6,882
-10,068
=6,408
^6,904
1,500
111
94,188
22,307
2,191
1,161
794
2,532
584
1,392
3,304
1,340
5,162
8,181
32,797
3,962
859
883
2,092
6,946
-2,296
Composition of undistributed offsettine receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement
Rents and royalties on the Outer
Continental Shelf
-2,927
-3,956
=3,319
-6,748
-3,980
-4,242
=2,662
=985
-1,311
National defense
International affairs
General science, space, and technol, ogy
Energy
3,495
425
See next page for continuation of table.
246
MS
-2.428
180,988
59,952
120,967
18,376
5,285
6,573
448,368
105,186
5,922
14,636
6,348
4,742
5,861
10,925
7,731
3,331
15,445
11,070
20,985
36,582
137,900
18,038
3,600
3,169
9,499
29,877
26,463
41,232
146,180
18,974
3,802
3,706
9,601
35,435
-6,922
- 7,242
-4,548
-2,374
-4,983
4,677
4,172
10,000
5,526
98
=2,259
TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receipts, outlays, and debt,fiscalyears 1973-84—Continued
[Millions of dollars; fiscal years]
Actual
Description
Estimates
1980
463,302
517,112
599,272
617,766
597,494
659,702
316,366
186,988
-40,052
350,856
210,930
-44,674
410,422
239,413
-50,563
409,253
268,407
-59,894
376,945
314,755
-94,206
404,745
330,210
-75,253
490,997
576,675
657,204
728,375
805,202
848,483
Interf und transactions....
362,396
168,653
-40,052
419,220
202,129
-44,674
475,171
232,596
-50,563
526,113
262,155
-59,894
603,047
296,361
-94,206
610,467
313,269
-75,253
Total surplus or deficit ( - ) . .
-27,694
-59,563
-57,932
-110,609
-207,708
-188,781
-46,030
18,335
-68,364
8,801
-64,749
6,817
-116,860
6,252
-226,102
18,393
-205,721
16,941
833,751
914,317
1,003,941
1,146,987
1,383,744
1,606,339
189,162
644,589
115,594
528,996
199,212
715,105
209,507
794,434
217,560
929,427
239,317
1,144,427
258,912
1,347,427
120,846
594,259
124,466
669,968
134,497
794,929
463,302
517,112
599,272
617,766
597,494
659,702
217,841
65,677
138,939
18,745
5,411
7439
244,069
64,600
157,803
24,329
6,389
7,174
285,917
61,137
182,720
40,839
6,787
8,083
297,744
49,207
201,498
36,311
7,991
8,854
285,194
35,286
210,313
37,257
6,114
8,819
295,589
51,770
242,937
40,353
5,902
9,137
8,327
925
11,767
981
12,834
956
15,186
975
13,406
1,105
12,819
1,195
490,997
576,675
657,204
728,375
805,202
848,483
117,681
6,091
5,041
6,856
12,091
6,238
2,579
17,459
9,542
135,856
10,733
5,722
6,313
13,812
4,762
7,788
21,120
10,068
159,765
11,130
6,359
10,277
13,525
5,572
3,946
23,381
9,394
187,418
9,982
7,070
4,674
12,934
14,875
3,865
20,560
7,165
214,769
11,939
7,759
4,506
12,087
21,075
1,928
21,876
7,373
245,305
13,250
8,250
3,306
9,832
12,150
413
25,145
6,951
29,685
46,962
160,159
19,928
4,153
4,093
8,372
42,606
30,767
55,220
193,100
21,183
4,570
4,505
8,584
52,458
31,402
65,982
225,101
22,988
4,696
4,614
6,856
68,726
26,300
74,017
248,343
23,955
4,671
4,726
6,393
84,697
26,676
82,362
282,472
24,411
5,273
5,794
6,382
88,936
25,256
90,647
282,422
25,724
5,491
5,993
-8,538
-9,887
-16,509
-13,270
-20,414
1981
1982
1983
1979
1984
BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS:
Total receipts
Federal funds
Trust funds
Interfund transactions..
Total outlays..
Federal funds
Trust funds
Federal funds...
Trust funds
OUTSTANDING DEBT, END OF PERIOD:
Gross Federal debt
Held by Government agencies..
Held by the public
Federal Reserve System..
Other
BUDGET RECEIPTS...
Individual income taxes
Corporation income taxes
Social insurance taxes and contributions
Excise taxes
Estate and gift taxes
Customs duties
Miscellaneous receipts:
Deposits of earnings by Federal Reserve
System
Allother
BUDGET OUTLAYS..
National defense
International affairs
General science, space, and technology
Energy
.\
Natural resources and environment
Agriculture
Commerce and housing credit
Transportation
Community and regional development
Education, training, employment, and social services
,
Health
Income security
Veterans benefits and services
Administration of justice
General government
General purpose fiscal assistance
Net interest
Allowances
Undistributed offsetting receipts
Composition of undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental
Shelf
6,968
103,180
949
-22,750
-5,271
-5,787
-6,371
-7,020
-8,214
-9,853
-3,267
-4,101
-10,138
-6,250
-11,793
-11,895
Note.—Under provisions of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974,1...
,
........
fiscal year 1977. Through fiscal year 1976, the fiscal year was on a July 1-June 30 basis. Beginning October 1976 (fiscal year 1977).
the fiscal year is on an October 1-September 30 basis. The period July 1,1976 through September 30, 1976 is a separate fiscal period
known as the transition quarter.
Refunds of receipts are excluded from receipts and outlays.
See "Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984" for additional information.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
247
TABLE B-73.—Federal budget receipts and outlays, off-budget outlays, and debt,fiscalyears 1929-84
[Billions of dollars]
Budget
Fiscal year
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or Off-budget
outlays
deficit
(->
Budget
and offbudget
surplus or
deficit
(->
Gross Feder.il debt (end
ofpe rlnA\
Total
Held by
the public
1929
3.9
3.1
.7
U6.9
1933
2.0
4.6
=2.6
*22.5
1939
5.0
8.8
-3.9
48.2
41.4
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
6.4
8.6
14.4
23.6
44.3
9.5
13.6
35.1
78.5
91.3
31
-5.0
-20.8
-54.9
47 0
50.7
57.5
79.2
142.6
204.1
42.8
48.2
67.8
127.8
184.8
45.2
39.3
38.4
41.8
39.4
92.7
55.2
34.5
29.8
38.8
-47.5
-15.9
3.9
12 0
.6
2601
271.0
257.1
252 0
252.6
235.2
241.9
224.3
216 3
214.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
39.5
51.6
66.2
69.6
69.7
42.6
45.5
67.7
76.1
70.9
31
6.1
= 15
=6.5
-1.2
256.9
255.3
2591
266.0
270.8
219.0
214.3
214 8
218.4
224.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
65.5
74.5
80.0
79 6
79.2
68.5
70.5
76.7
82.6
92.1
=3 0
4.1
3.2
=-2 9
-12.9
274 4
272.8
272.4
2797
287.8
226.6
222.2
219.4
226 4
235.0
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
92 5
94,4
99.7
106.6
112.7
92 2
97.8
106.8
111.3
118.6
3
=3.4
-71
48
-5.9
290 9
292.9
303.3
310.8
316.8
237.2
238.6
248.4
254.5
257.6
1965
196B
1967
1968
1969
116 8
1309
148 9
153.0
186.9
118 4
134 7
157 6
178.1
183.6
16
-3 8
87
-25.2
3.2
2616
264.7
267 5
290.6
279.5
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
192 8
1871
207.3
230.8
263.2
1957
210.2
230.7
245.6
267.9
28
23 0
-23.4
-14.8
=4.7
0.1
1.4
-14.9
=6.1
323 2
329 5
3413
369.8
367.1
3826
409.5
437.3
468.4
486.2
284 9
304 3
323.8
343.0
346.1
1975
1976
Transition quarter..
1977
1978
1979
279.1
2981
81.2
3556
399.6
463.3
324.2
364.5
94.2
4005
448.4
491.0
=45.2
664
13.0
449
-48.8
27.7
8.1
73
1.8
87
10.4
12.5
-53.2
=73.7
= 14.7
= 536
= 59.2
40.2
544.1
631.9
646.4
7091
780.4
833.8
396.9
480.3
498.3
5518
610.9
644.6
1980
1981
1982
1983*
1984*
517.1
599.3
617.8
597 5
659.7
576.7
657.2
728.4
805.2
848.5
-59,6
-57.9
110 6
207 7
-188.8
14.2
21.0
17.3
17.0
14.0
-73.8
78.9
-127.9
=224.8
=202.8
914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,383.7
1,606.3
715.1
794.4
929.4
1,144.4
1,347.4
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
.. .
1
Not strictly comparable with later data.
* Estimates.
Note.—Under provisions of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the fiscal year for the Federal Government shifted beginning with
fiscal year 1977. Through fiscal year 1976, the fiscal year was on a July 1-June 30 basis; beginning October 1976 (fiscal year 1977),
the fiscal year is on an October 1-September 30 basis. The 3-month period from July 1, 1976 through September 30, 1976 is a
separate fiscal period known as the transition quarter.
Data for 1929-39 are according to the administrative budget and those beginning 1940 according to the unified budget.
Refunds of receipts are excluded from receipts and outlays.
See "Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984" for additional information.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
248
TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal Government receipts and expenditures in the national income and
product accounts to the unified budget, fiscal years 1982-84
[Billions of dollars; fiscal years]
Estimate
Receipts and expenditures
1982
1983
RECEIPTS
Total budget receipts....
617.8
659.7
12.2
11.7
-1.6
.2
-1.7
.0
14.0
13.9
-.3
-1.9
.2
627.9
685.6
728.4
Federal sector, national income and product accounts, receipts
597.5
10.7
9.3
618.2
Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing)..
Other netting and grossing
Adjustment to accruals
Geographic exclusions
...
Other
805.2
848.5
-5.3
10.7
-3.8
12.2
11.7
-1.7
-3.8
14.0
13.9
-2.5
-18.2
8.2
EXPENDITURES
Total budget outlays
Lending and financial transactions
Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing)...
Defense timing adjustment
Bonuses on Outer Continental Shelf land leases..
Geographic exclusions
Other
Federal sector, national income and product accounts, expenditures..
9.3
-1.2
-4.6
8.3
7.9
-4.8
-4.9
-.3
2.7
1.9
4.2
739.7
829.0
877.3
Note.-See Note, Table B-73.
See Special Analysis B, "Special Analyses, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984" for description of these
categories.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and
Budget.
249
TABLE B-75.—Government receipts and expenditures, national income and product accounts, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Total government
Surplus or
deficit
Calendar year or quarter
Receipts
Expenditures
State and local
government
Federal Government
national
income
and
product
accounts
Surplus or
deficit
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or
deficit
national
income
and
product
accounts
Receipts
Expenditures
national
income
and
product
accounts
1929
11.3
10.3
1.0
3.8
2.6
1.2
7.6
7.8
-0.2
1933
9.3
10.7
-1.4
2.7
4.0
= 1.3
7.2
7.2
=,1
1939
15.4
17.6
-2.2
6.7
8.9
=2.2
9.6
9.6
.0
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
17.7
25.0
32.6
49.2
51.2
53.2
51.0
56.9
589
55.9
18.4
28.8
64.0
93.3
103 0
92.7
45 6
42.5
505
59.3
=.7
=3.8
=31.4
=44.1
= 51.8
= 39.5
54
14.4
84
=3.4
8.6
15.4
22.9
39.3
41.0
42.5
39.1
43.2
43,2
38.7
10.0
20.5
56.1
85.8
95.5
84.6
35.6
29.8
34.9
41.3
= 1.3
= 5.1
= 33.1
46.6
-54.5
421
3.5
13.4
8.3
=2.6
10.0
10.4
10.6
10.9
11.1
11.6
13.0
15.4
17.7
19.5
9.3
9.1
8.8
8.4
8.5
9.0
11.1
14.4
17.6
20.2
.6
1.3
1.8
2.5
2.7
2.6
1.9
l.C
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
69.0
85 2
90.1
94 6
89.9
1011
109.7
116 2
115.0
129.4
61.0
79 2
93.9
1016
97.0
98 0
104.5
1152
127.6
131.0
8.0
61
-3.8
-69
-7.1
31
5.2
9
= 12.6
50.0
643
67.3
70 0
63.7
72 6
78.0
819
78.7
89.8
40.8
57 8
71.1
771
69.8
681
71.9
79 6
88.9
91.0
9.2
65
-3.7
-7.1
=6,0
4.4
6.1
2.3
-10.3
= 1.1
21.3
234
25.4
27.4
29.0
31.7
35.0
38.5
42.0
46.4
22.5
239
25.5
27.3
30.2
32.9
35.9
39.8
44.3
46.9
I960
1961
1962 ,
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
139.5
144.8
156.7
168.5
174.0
188.3
212 3
228.2
2631
296.7
136.4
149.1
160.5
167.8
176.3
187.8
213 6
242.4
2691
286.8
3.1
=4.3
= 3.8
96.1
98.1
106.2
114.4
114.9
124.3
1418
150.5
174 4
196.9
93.1
101.9
110.4
114.2
118.2
123.8
143 6
163.7
180.5
188.4
3.0
=3.9
=4.2
= 1.8
= 13.2
-6.0
8.4
49.9
54.0
58.5
63.2
69.5
75.1
84.8
93.6
107.3
120,2
49.8
54.4
58.0
62.8
68.5
.75.1
84.3
94.7
107.2
118.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
302.8
322.6
368 3
413.1
455 2
470.5
538.4
605 4
6819
765,1
313.4
342.0
3716
405.3
460 0
534.3
574.9
623 3
6811
750.8
= 10.6
= 19.4
7.8
=4 7
=63.8
=36.5
-47 8
8
14.3
191.9
198.6
227 5
258.6
287 8
287.3
331.8
375 2
4316
493.6
204.3
220.6
244 3
264.2
299 3
356.6
384.8
4211
4610
509.7
= 12.4
=22.0
-16.8
=5.6
= 11.5
=69.3
=53.1
-45.9
-29 5
16.1
135.4
153.0
178.3
195.0
211.4
237.7
267.8
297.7
133.5
150.4
164.8
181.6
204.6
232.2
251.2
269.7
297.3
321.5
1.9
2.6
13.5
13.4
6.8
5.5
16.6
28.0
30.3
30.4
1980
1981 p
1982
838.0
957.3
968.4
871.2
985.5
1,084.5
=33.2
-28.2
116.1
540.7
628.2
614.7
602.1
688.2
762.6
=61.4
-60.0
-147.9
385.9
416.8
437.3
357.8
385.0
405.4
28.2
31.7
31.9
814.6
809.2
842.8
885.2
825.2
853.4
888 8
917.4
-=10.6
=44.2
=45 9
32 2
525.7
520.2
542.4
574.6
565.4
587.7
615.4
639.9
-39.7
-67.5
-73.1
=65.2
374.5
376.6
389.3
403.3
345.3
353.3
362.2
370.3
29.1
23.3
27.1
33.0
939.8
951.5
974.3
963.6
948.1
959.1
998 7
1,036.1
-8.3
-7.6
=24 5
-72 5
620.0
627.0
640.2
625.7
659.7
667.5
698.2
727.4
-39.7
-40.5
58.0
-101.7
410.0
415.2
420.3
421.5
378.6
382.2
386.9
392.4
31.3
32.9
33.5
29.1
951.1
966.2
972 2
1,041.8
1053.7
1095 9
1,146.7
90.7
-87.5
123 7
609.9
617.0
613.7
728.3
736.6
769.7
815.9
-118.4
-119.6
-156.0
424.2
434.3
440.5
396.5
402.2
408.2
414.9
27.7
32.1
32.3
1980:
1
Ill
I
V
1981:
||
III
I
V
1982:
||
Ill
IV
'••-1.6
-2.3
-1*3
-14.2
=60
9.9
= 3.3
m
= .7
= 1.2
= 4
= .0
.1
1.3
= 9
=1.4
=2.4
=.4
.1
.5
1.0
=.C
= 1.1
1.5
Note.—Federaf grants-fn-aid to State and local governments are reflected in Federal expenditures and State and local receipts. Total
government receipts and expenditures have been adjusted to eliminate this duplication.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
250
TABLE B-76.—Federal Government receipts and expenditures, national income and product accounts,
1958-84
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Expenditures
Receipts
Year or quarter
Fiscal year:2
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 3
1984 3
Calendar year:
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 p
1982 ,
1981:
II
III
I
V
1982:
I
Ill
IVP
Total
Z
Indirect ContriPersonal Corpo- business butions
rate
tax and profits tax and
for
Total1
nontax tax
nontax social
receipts accruals accruals insurance
Transfer
payments
Grantsin-aid to
PurState
chases
and
of goods
To
To foreign- local
and
governservices persons ers
ments
Net
interest
paid
Subsi- Surplus
or
dies deficit
less
current national
surplus income
of
and
govern- product
ment accounts
enterprises
78.1
854
94 8
95.0
104 0
110.0
1156
120.0
132 7
146.0
159 9
189.8
194 8
192.4
213.4
240.7
2716
2834
314.9
365.9
414 3
480.8
5251
614 7
618.2
627.9
685.6
36.3
38.2
42 5
43.6
47 3
49.6
50.7
51.4
57.5
64.4
71.4
90.2
94.0
87.9
100.5
107.4
122.7
127 5
137.2
166.3
186.5
222.6
2501
2917
303.0
293.1
304.1
17.9
214
22 3
20.0
22 7
23.3
25 7
27.1
30 8
30.3
331
36.8
32 9
31.9
34.2
41.2
43.4
418
52.5
58.9
67 3
76.1
700
70 9
50.1
50.5
59.4
11.6
12.0
13 2
13.3
14.2
15.0
15.6
16.9
15.5
15.8
17.1
18.6
19.2
20.0
19.9
20.7
21.4
22 2
24.3
24.5
27.2
29.1
34 7
557
50.7
55.2
59.3
12.3
13.9
16.7
18.1
19.9
22.1
23.6
24.5
28.9
35.5
38.3
44.2
48.8
52.6
58.9
71.5
84.2
91.9
101.0
116.2
133.3
153.1
170.3
196 3
214.4
229.1
262.8
82.8
91.2
913
98.1
106.2
111.7
117.2
118.5
132.7
154.9
172.2
184.6
195.5
212.9
232.7
255.7
278.2
328 8
370.7
411.2
450.4
495.6
577 0
666 5
739.7
829.0
877.3
51.1
54.8
52 9
55.8
61.0
63.7
65.9
64.6
72.4
86.0
95.0
98.0
97.1
94.9
100.6
101.1
104.5
117 9
125.1
139.8
150.4
164.1
189.8
2181
250.1
279.0
302.5
17.8
19.9
20 6
23.6
251
26.5
27.4
28.4
31.8
37.2
42.7
48.7
55 0
67.7
76.1
87.2
101.8
1314
153.8
166.6
178.7
197.8
234 6
2734
304.8
342.2
350.9
1.7
1.8
18
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.0
2.3
2.8
2.7
3.0
31
3.0
3.2
3.5
4.1
4.8
57
6.0
6.4
6.5
4.7
6.2
69
6.9
7.6
8.3
9.8
10.9
12.7
14.8
17.8
19.2
22.6
26.8
32.6
40.4
41.6
48.4
57.5
66.3
74.7
79.1
86.7
90.1
83.4
86.9
90.1
78 7
89.8
96.1
981
106.2
114 4
114 9
124 3
1418
150.5
174.4
196.9
1919
198 6
227.5
258.6
287 8
287 3
3318
375.2
431.6
4936
540.7
628 2
614.7
36 8
39.9
43.6
447
48.6
51.5
48 6
53.9
617
67.5
79.7
95.1
92.6
90 3
108.2
114.7
131.3
125 8
147 3
170.1
194.9
230.6
257.5
2981
300.1
18 0
22.5
21.4
215
22.5
24 6
261
289
314
30.0
36.1
361
30 6
33 5
36.6
43.3
451
43 6
54 6
61.6
71.3
74 2
70.3
67 3
48.1
115
12.5
13.4
13 6
14.6
15.3
16 2
16.5
15 6
16.3
18.0
19.0
19 3
20 4
20.0
21.2
21.7
23.9
23 4
25.0
28.1
29.4
38.9
58 5
50.0
12 4
14.9
17.6
18.3
20.5
23.1
24 0
25.0
331
36.7
40.7
46.7
49.3
544
62.7
79.5
89.8
94.1
106.5
118.5
137.2
159.5
174.1
204.3
216.5
88 9
91.0
93.1
1019
110.4
114.2
118 2
123.8
143 6
163.7
180.5
188.4
204.3
220 6
244.3
264.2
299.3
356.6
384 8
421.1
461.0
509.7
602.1
688.2
762.6
53 9
53.9
53.7
57 4
63.7
64.6
65 2
67.3
78 8
90.9
98.0
97.6
95.7
96 2
101.7
102.0
111.0
122.7
129.2
143.4
153.6
168.3
197.2
228.9
257.3
19 6
20.1
21.6
25 0
25.6
27.0
27 9
30.3
33 5
40.1
46.0
50.6
613
72 7
80.5
93.3
114.5
146.3
158.8
169.6
181.8
205.0
246.2
280.9
315.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
23
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.7
2.6
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.8
4.2
5.2
5.7
6.1
5.6
6.8
6.5
7.2
8.0
9.1
10.4
11.1
14.4
15.9
18.6
20.3
24.4
29.0
37.5
40.6
43.9
54.6
61.1
67.5
77.3
80.5
88.7
87.7
83.6
35?
4? 4
53.1
71.9
84.8
28 - 1 0 3
-1.1
2.1
3.0
2.6
-3.9
40
4.2 - 4 . 2
.3
3.9
-33
45
4.6
-18
55
4.7 -13.2
-6.0
4.5
8.4
5.2
6.5 -12.4
63 -22.0
7.9 -16.8
7.8 - 5 . 6
5.5 -11.5
6.9 -69.3
5.8 -53.1
8.2 -45.9
9.5 -29.5
9.2
11.7 -61.4
13.1 -60.0
15.1 -147.9
620.0
627 0
640 2
625.7
286.4
297.0
307.9
300.9
76.1
65 6
68 4
59.1
57.5
61.5
57.8
57.2
199.9
202.8
206.1
208.4
659.7
667.5
698.2
727.4
217.0 268.8
218.2 271.9
230.0 289.0
250.5 294.0
5.2
4.8
6.1
6.6
90.2
90.6
86.3
83.6
66 3
583
74 0
79.0
12,2 -39.7
13.7 =-40.5
13.0 -58.0
13.6 -101.7
609.9
617.0
613 7
2999
305.8
295.6
299.3
46.5
45.2
49.8
48.7
49.8
50.8
50.7
214.9
216.2
217.5
217.4
728.3
736.6
769.7
815.9
249.7 297.2
244.3 307.0
259.0 321.8
276.1 337.0
6.0
5.8
5.6
7.0
83.0
85.0
82.0
84.2
79 6
8? 8
88 7
88.2
12.7 -118.4
11.6 -119.6
12.6 -156.0
23.4
2.4
5.4
25
5.6
24
68
6.4
3.3
41
6.4
7.1
4.0
77
41
8.2
4.3
8.7
48
5.2
9.6
41
10.4
4.7
11.9
55
13 5
14.0 • 7.0
6.5
14.0
15.7
9.2
19.6
76
217
60
6.2
25.2
28.4
6.9
9.7
9.9
40.6
SO 6 10 5
66 2 131
82.5 12.8
92.4 22.1
106.6 20.7
5.2
6.2
6.8
6.2
68
8.0
84
92
9.8
in
14.1
13.8
14 4
180
?0 7
26.8
-4.7
-58
34
-3.1
-22
-1.7
-15
1.4
0
-8.9
-12 3
5.2
-20.5
-19.2
-14.9
-6.6
-45 4
-55.8
-45.3
-36.1
-14,8
-51.9
-519
-121.5
-201.1
-191.7
1
2 Includes an item for the difference between wage accruals and disbursements, not shown separately.
Under provisions of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the fiscal year for the Federal Government shifted beginning with -fiscal
year 1977. Through fiscal year 1976, the fiscal year was on a July 1-June 30 basis; beginning October 1976 (fiscal year 1977), the
fiscal year is on an October 1-September 30 basis. The 3-month period from July 1, 1976 through September 30, 1976 is a separate
fiscal period known as the transition quarter.
3
Estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Office of Management and Budget.
251
TABLE B-77.—State and local government receipts and expenditures, national income and product accounts,
1946-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Receipts
Calendar year
or quarter
Total
Expenditures
Indirect
Personal Corpo- business Contribu- Federal
rate
tax and profits tax and tions for grants-innontax
social
tax
aid
nontax
receipts accruals accruals insurance
Total 1
Purchases
of
goods
and
services
Subsidies
Trans- Net
less
fer interest current
paypaid surplus
ments less
of
to
diviper- dends governsons received ment
enter-
prises
1.5
0.6
1.1
1946
9.3
13.0
1.7
.7
1.7
1947
10.7
15.4
2.1
2.0
1948
.8
12.2
17.7
2,4
2.2
13.3
1949
.9
19.5
1.1
21.3
2.3
2.5
1950
14.6
1.4
2.8
23.4
2.5
15.9
1951
1.6
25.4
2.6
3.0
17.4
1952
1.7
27.4
2.8
3.2
18.8
1953
2.0
29.0
2.9
3.5
1954
19.9
31.7
3.9
2.1
21.6
3.1
1.0
1955
35.0
3.3
2.3
23.8
1.0
1956
4.5
38.5
4.2
1.0
2.6
25.7
1957
5.0
5.6
1.0
42.0
2.8
27.2
1958
5.4
6.8
1,2
46.4
29.3
1959
6.1
3.1
3,4
67
1960
32.0
49.9
6.5
1.2
3.7
7.4
54.0
34.4
7.2
1961
1.3
3.9
58.5
8.2
37.0
8.0
1962
1.5
63.2
4.2
8.8
39.4
9.1
1963
1.7
4.7
69.5
10.4
10.0
42.6
1964
1.8
75.1
10.9
1965
5.0
11.1
46.1
2.0
84.8
12.8
1966
14.4
5.7
2.2
49.7
93.6
15.9
14.6
1967
6.7
2,5
54.0
18.6
107.3
17.5
1968
7.2
3.1
60.9
20.3
120.2
3.4
20.6
1969
8.3
67.6
135.4
23.2
24.4
1970
9.2
75.0
3.5
26.4
153.0
29.0
10.2
83.3
1971
4.1
32.8
11.5
91.5
1972
178.3
37.5
5.0
13.0
99.7
36.0
5.8
195.0
40.6
1973
14.6
211.4
6.5
107.4
1974
43.9
39.0
237.7
43.1
16.8
54.6
7.1
1975
116.2
267.8
49.6
19.5
61.1
9.3
1976
128.3
297.7
56.3
22.1
67.5
11.1
1977
..
..
140.7
327.6
63.8
24.7
77.3
1978
150.0
11.9
352.0
70.4
27.4
1979
160.2
13.4
80.5
1980
88.7
174.1
78.8
29.9
385.9
14.4
192.8
88.6
1981
416.8
33.8
87.7
13.9
1982 *
437.3
208.8
97.1
107
83.6
37.2
1980:
28.7
374.5
85.5
75.5
168.8
15.9
I
376.6
28.8
»7.6
77.3
170.5
12.5
389.3
88.9
79.6
30.6
176.1
14.2
|
|
92.7
82.7
181.2
403.3
31.6
15.0
III
;
.
:
IV
410.0
187.1
84.8
32.5
15.4
90.2
415.2
87.2
33,4
190.4
13.6
90.6
1981:
420.3
90.3
34.2
195.5
14.0
86.3
• ii ;" ;
* ; 421.5
*
92.3
35.1
12.5
83.6
198.0
IILZI:;
424.2
93.6
36.0
83.0
10.1
201.5
iv
95.4
434.3
36.9
85.0
206.9
10,2
98.8
37.7
440.5
82.0
210.9
11.2
1982:
100.5
38.4
84.2
215.8
It
1
IllIncludes an item for the difference between wage accruals and disbursements,
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IV*
252
11.1
14.4
17.6
20.2
9.9
12.8
15.3
18.0
1.7
2.3
3.0
3.0
0.2
.1
.1
.1
=-07
22.5
23.9
25.5
27.3
30.2
32.9
35.9
39.8
44.3
46,9
19.8
21.8
23.2
25.0
27.8
3.6
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.6
.1
.0
.0
.0
,1
-.9
-1.0
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
30.6
33.5
37.1
41.1
43.7
3.8
3.9
4.3
4.8
5.1
-1.5
-1.6
-1.7
-1.7
-2.0
49.8
54.4
58.0
62.8
68.5
46.5
50.8
54.3
59.0
64.6
5.4
5.8
6.0
6.4
6.9
=2,2
=2.3
-2.5
-2.8
-2.8
75.1
84.3
94.7
107.2
1187
71.1
79.8
89.3
101.0
111.2
7.3
8.1
9.4
10.5
12.2
-.3
-7
-.9
-1.1
-1.4
-3.0
-3.0
-3,1
-3.2
-3.3
133.5
150.4
164.8
181.6
204.6
124.4
138.7
151.4
168.5
193.1
147
17.3
19.3
20.7
20.9
-2.0
-1.7
= 1.9
-3.3
-5.0
-3.6
-3.7
=4.2
-4.3
232.2
251.2
269.7
297.3
321.5
24.6
27.6
29.7
32.8
35.0
-5.1
-4.5
-5.3
-7.9
-13.8
-4.5
-4.8
-5.1
-5.7
-5.9
357.8
385.0
405.4
217.2
232.9
250.4
278.3
306.0
341.2
368.0
389.8
39.6
43.0
45.1
-16.9
-19.5
^227
-6.2
-6.5
-6.8
345.3
353.3
362.2
370.3
329.6
337.2
345.2
352.8
377
38.9
40.5
41.4
-16.1
-16.7
-17.3
-177
-6.0
-6.1
-6.2
-6.3
378.6
382.2
386.9
392.4
361.1
365.0
370.1
375.7
42.0
42.8
43.3
43,9
-18.1
-19.1
-20.1
=20.7
=6,4
-6.4
6.5
=6.6
396.5
402.2
408.2
414.9
380.4
386.6
392.7
399.6
44.3
447
45.4
46.0
=21.5
-22.4
-23.2
=23.8
-6.6
6.7
67
-68
-6,9
not shown separately.
TABLE B-78.—State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected fiscal years, 1927-81
[Millions of dollars]
General expenditures by function 2
General revenues by source2
Fiscal year l
Total
Sales
and Individu- Corpo- Revenue
ration
from
All 3
Property gross
net
Federal
taxes
remcome income Govern- other
ceipts taxes
ment
taxes
taxes
Total
Education
Highways
Public
welfare
Alt
other4
1927
7,271
4,730
470
70
92
116
1,793
7,210
2,235
1,809
151
3,015
1932
1934
1936
1938
7,267
7,678
8,395
9,228
4,487
4,076
4,093
4,440
752
1,008
1,484
1,794
74
80
153
218
79
49
113
165
232
1,016
948
800
1,643
1,449
1,604
1,811
7,765
7,181
7,644.
8,757
2,311
1,831
2,177
2,491
1,741
1,509
1,425
1,650
444
889
827
1,069
3,269
2,952
3,215
3,547
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
9,609
10,418
10,908
12,356
17,250
4,430
4,537
4,604
4,986
6,126
1,982
2,351
2,289
2,986
4,442
224
276
342
422
543
156
272
451
447
592
945
858
954
855
1,861
1,872
2,123
2,269
2,661
3,685
9,229
9,190
8,863
11,028
17,684
2,638
2,586
2,793
3,356
5,379
1,573
1,490
1,200
1,672
3,036
1,156
1,225
1,133
1,409
2,099
3,862
3,889
3,737
4,591
7,170
1950
1952
1953
1954
20,911
25,181
27,307
29,012
7,349
8,652
9,375
9,967
5,154
6,357
6,927
7,276
788
998
1,065
1,127
593
846
817
778
2,486
2,566
2,870
2,966
4,541
5,763
6,252
6,897
22,787
26,098
27,910
30,701
7,177
8,318
9,390
10,557
3,803
4,650
4,987
5,527
2,940
2,788
2,914
3,060
8,867
10,342
10,619
11,557
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
31,073
34,667
38,164
41,219
45,306
10,735 7,643
11,749 8,691
12,864 9,467
14,047 9,829
14,983 10,437
1,237
1,538
1,754
1,759
1,994
744
890
984
1,018
1,001
3,131 7,584
3,335 8,465
3,843 9,250
4,865 9,699
6,377 10,516
33,724
36,711
40,375
44,851
48,887
11,907
13,220
14,134
15,919
17,283
6,452
6,953
7,816
8,567
9,592
3,168
3,139
3,485
3,818
4,136
12,197
13,399
14,940
16,547
17,876
1960
1961
1962
1963
50,505 16,405
54,037 18,002
58,252 19,054
62,890 20,089
11,849
12,463
13,494
14,456
2,463
2,613
3,037
3,269
1,180
1,266
1,308
1,505
6,974
7,131
7,871
8,722
11,634
12,563
13,489
14,850
51,876
56,201
60,206
64,816
18,719
20,574
22,216
23,776
9,428
9,844
10,357
11,136
4,404
4,720
5,084
5,481
19,325
21,063
22,549
24,423
1962-636..
1963-64*..
1964-65S..
62,269
68,443
74,000
19,833 14,446
21,241 15,762
22,583 17,118
3,267
3,791
4,090
1,505
1,695
1,929
8,663
10,002
11,029
14,556
15,951
17,250
63,977
69,302
74,546
23,729
26,286
28,563
11,150
11,664
12,221
5,420
5,766
6,315
23,678
25,586
27,447
1965-665...
1966-675..,
5
1967-685..
1968-69 ..
1969-70*..,
83,036 24,670 19,085
91,197 26,047 20,530
101,264 27,747 22,911
114,550 30,673 26,519
130,756 34,054 30,322
4,760
5,826
7,308
8,908
10,812
2,038
2,227
2,518
3,180
3,738
13,214
15,370
17,181
19,153
21,857
19,269
21,197
23,598
26,118
29,971
82,843
93,350
102,411
116,728
131,332
33,287
37,919
41,158
47,238
52,718
12,770
13,932
14,481
15,417
16,427
6,757
8,218
9,857
12,110
14,679
30,029
33,281
36,915
41,963
47,508
1970-716...
1971-72"...
1972-735...
1973-745..
1974-75s..
144,927 37,852 33,233
166,352 42,133 37,488
190,214 45,283 42,047
207,670 47,705 46.098
228,171 51,491 49,815
3,424
4,416
5,425
6,015
6,642
26,146
31,253
39,256
41,820
47,034
32,374
35,826
40,210
46,541
51,735
150,674
166,873
181,227
«8959
59,413
64,886
69,714
75,833
87,858
18,095
19,010
18,615
19.946
22,528
18,226
21,070
23,582
25,085
28,155
54,940
61,907
69,316
78,096
92,180
1975-765..
1976-77 s..
1977-78°..
1978-79s5..
1979-80 ...
1980-81s..
256,176
285,796
315,960
343,278
382,322
423,404
11,900
15,237
17,994
19.491
21,454
24.575
29,245
33,176
36,932
42,080
46,426
7,273
9,174
10,738
12,128
13,321
14,143
55,589
62,575
69,592
75,164
83,029
57,191
61,673
68,436
79,864
95,466
97,216
102,805
110,758
119,448
133,211
23,907
23,105
24,609
28,440
33,311
32,604
35,941
39,140
41,898
47,288
90,294
.11,599
145,784
34,603
54,121
103,004
112,537
122,476
137,731
155,277
172,941
57,001
62,535
66,422
64,944
68,499
74,969
54,547
60,595
67,596
74,247
79,927
85,971
1
2
Fiscal years not the same for all governments. See footnote 5.
Excludes revenues or expenditures of publicly owned utilities and liquor stores, and of insurance-trust activities. Intergovernmental
receipts and payments between State and local governments are also excluded.
3
Includes licenses and other taxes and charges and miscellaneous revenues.
4
Includes expenditures for health, hospitals, police, local fire protection, natural resources, sanitation, housing and urban renewal,
local parks and recreation, general control, financial administration, interest on general debt, and unallocable expenditures.
6
Data for fiscal year ending in the 12-month period through June 30. Data for 1963 and earlier years include local government
amounts grouped in terms of fiscal years ended during the particular calendar year.
Note.—Data are not available for intervening years.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
253
TABLE B-79.—Interest-bearing public debt securities by kind of obligation, 1967-82
[Millions of dollars]
End of year
or month
Fiscal year:
196)
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
June
July
Aug
Sept....
Oti
Nov
Dec
Total
interestbearing
public
debt
securities
Marketable
Total
322,286
344,401
351,729
369,026
396,289
425,360
456,353
473,238
532,122
619,254
697,629
766,971
819,007
906,402
996,495
1,140,883
* 210,672
226,592
226,107
929,825
946,455
963,207
962,779
964,792
969,921
972,053
978,920
996,495
999,451
1,011,936
1.027,300
1,032,678
1,042,198
1,059,815
1,064,538
1,066,410
1,078,431
1,083,296
1,108,131
1,140,883
1,136,826
1,160,489
1,195,496
Treasury
Treasury
notes
Treasury
bonds'
Total
U.S.
savings
bonds
Foreign
government
and
public2
series
Government
account
series
Other*
97,418
91,079
78,805
62,956
53,989
49,135
45,071
33,137
36,779
39,626
45,724
56,355
71,073
111,614
117,808
125,623
136,426
150,816
168,158
193,382
206,663
51,213
51,712
51,711
51,281
53,003
55,921
59,418
61,921
1,514
3,741
4,070
4,755
9,270
18,985
28,524
25,011
56,155
59,526
66,790
76,323
82,784
101,738
115,442
216,516
226,673
254,121
281,816
312,314
310,903 83,772
363,643 96,178
442,890 103,631
311,896
313,286
316,461
65,482
69,733
75,411
79,798
80,440
72,727
68,017
67,274
23,216
21,500
21,799
21,680
28,115
25,158
20,499
14,641
124,173
130,557
140,113
153,271
176,360
189,848
201,052
210,462
24,164
23,718
24,085
301,343
303,550
302,065
304,873
308,608
309,152
305,647
305,155
313,286
309,874
307,117
307,007
71,057
70,443
70,057
69,518
69,229
68,934
24,287
24,102
24,015
23,965
23,750
23,741
68,719
68,355
68,017
67,718
67,739
67,837
23,804
23,986
24,162
24,411
24,789
23,514
21,943
21,431
20,499
20,471
20,309
19,025
182,197
185,020
183,833
186,979
190,839
192,962
217,532
219,854
223,388
229,061
233,905
245,015
321,176 86,883
324,540 89,393
336,505 89,323
341,052 91,006
338,419 93,252
348,788 93,196
354,005 94,868
357,603 96,308
363,643 96,178
362,649 97,867
370,794 100,119
375,332 99,946
191,647
192,060
201,052
198,053
195,541
196,665
23,339
23,310
23,718
23,632
23,529
23,480
250,562
254,037
256,212
254,880
256,114
256,007
374,357
382,070
395,042
399,700
398,408
406,925
101,623
101,426
101,366
101,253
101,166
101,063
67,581
67,378
67,163
67,034
67,082
67,122
18,920
18,384
19,641
19,446
18,395
17,457
196,393
195,722
196,707
198,538
201,290
205,954
23,243
23,182
23,684
23,687
23,955
23,902
262,009
273,066
277,900
283,923
293,531
311,820
411,070
427,426
442,890
438,068
454,229
465,030
100,998
100,935
103,631
102,672
104,702
104,627
306,136
304,666
307,195
308,705
310,722
314,436
309,218
306,704
316,461
312,164
308,026
314,020
67,132
67,148
67,274
67,514
67,801
67,719
16,643
15,606
14,641
14,627
14,863
14,691
201,502
199,896
210,462
205,717
199,903
205,427
23,941
24,054
24,085
24,305
25,459
26,183
232,599
245,473
257,202
262,971
266,575
58,535
64,440
68,356
76,154
86,677
94,648
100,061
105,019
315,606
392,581
443,508
485,155
506,693
594,506
683,209
824,422
128,569
161,198
156,091
160,936
161,378
199,832
223,388
277,900
628,482
642,905
661,142
657,906
656,185
660,769
666,405
673,765
683,209
689,578
704,819
720,293
220,423
228,972
235,315
225,849
224,514
218,786
726,542
737,532
752,620
755,833
755,688
763,995
774,077
801,427
824,422
824,662
852,463
881,476
Nonmarketable
49,108
71,073
78,946
93,489
104,807
113,419
117,840
128,419
150,257
191,758
241,692
267,865
274,242
2,731
2,828
3,051
4,068
5,759
3,654
3,701
4,289
3,644
4,883
16,797
27,067
27,400
1
Includes Treasury bonds and minor amounts of Panama Canal and postal savings bonds.
3
Nonmarketable certificates of indebtedness, notes, bonds, and bills in the Treasury foreign series of dollar-denominated and foreigncurrency denominated issues.
3
Includes depository bonds, retirement plan bonds, Rural Electrification Administration bonds, State and local bonds, and special
issues held only by U.S. Government agencies and trust funds and the Federal home loan banks.
4
Includes $5,610 million in certificates not shown separately.
Note.—Through fiscal year 1976, the fiscal year was on a July 1-June 30 basis; beginning October 1976 (fiscal year 1977) the fiscal
year is on an October 1-September 30 basis.
Source: Department of the Treasury.
254
TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership ofpublic debt securities, 1967-82
[Par values;' billions of dollars]
1
'ublic debt securities
Held by private investors
End of year or month
Total2
Held by Held by
Govern- Federal
ment
Reserve
accounts Banks
Total3
Mutual
savings
banks
Comand
mercial insur- Corporations6
4
banks
ance
companies
State and
local
governments6
Individuals 7
Miscellaneous
investors 3 8
Fiscal year:
1967
1968
1969
322.9
345.4
352.9
71.8
76.1
84.8
46.7
52.2
54.1
204.4
217.0
214.0
55.5
59.7
55.3
13.2
12.5
11.6
11.0
12.0
11.1
23.6
25.1
26.4
70.4
74.2
77.3
30.7
33.4
32.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
370.1
397.3
426.4
457.3
474.2
95.2
102.9
111.5
123.4
138.2
57.7
65.5
71.4
75.0
80.5
217.2
228.9
243.6
258.9
255.6
52.6
61.0
60.9
58.8
53.2
10.4
10.3
10.2
9.6
8.5
8.5
7.4
9.3
9.8
10.8
29.0
25.9
26.9
28.8
28.3
81.8
75.4
73.2
75.9
80.7
35.0
49.1
63.2
76.0
74.2
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979 .. .
533.2
620.4
698.8
771.5
826.5
145.3
149.6
155.5
167.9
187.7
84.7
94.4
104.7
115.3
115.5
303.2
376.4
438.6
488.3
523.4
69.0
92.5
99.8
94.4
92.5
10.6
16.0
20.5
21.2
21.5
13.8
24.7
21.2
18.1
22.1
31.7
39.3
48.2
63.8
66.5
86.8
96.2
106.5
113.9
115.5
91.3
107.7
142.4
176.9
205.3
1980
1981
1982
907.7
997.9
1,142.0
197.7
208.1
216.4
120.7
124.3
134.4
589.2
665.4
791.2
109.7
112.2
24.3
26.2
25.9
37.8
77.0
86.2
123.0
140.3
229.3
262.7
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
- 934.1
950.5
964.5
964.0
968.5
971.2
189.5
192.0
190.9
193.9
197.8
199.9
117.2
118.9
119.0
119 7
118.3
120.0
627.4
639.6
654.6
650.4
652.3
651.2
117.2
116.4
117.5
113.5
113.2
113.3
25.5
25.3
23.7
23.7
25.3
24.0
30.4
35.2
40.0
40.4
38.8
38.7
77.3
80.4
82.3
83.6
85.1
83.0
134.2
136.2
138.6
138.2
139.9
139.6
242.8
246.1
252.5
251.0
250.0
252.6
Oct
Nov
Dec
973.3
980.2
997.9
1,005.0
1,013.3
1,028.7
198.6
199.0
208.1
204.9
202.1
203.3
123.4
124 5
124.3
123.0
126.5
129.9
651.3
656.7
665.4
677.2
684.6
694.5
114.2
115.0
112.2
111.3
110.0
109.4
25.4
26.1
26.2
24.7
24.6
24.3
37.8
38.0
37.8
38.6
38.3
37.8
86.0
86.2
86.2
88.3
87.5
85.6
139.5
140.2
140.3
141.0
141.6
143.7
248.4
251.2
262.7
273.3
282.6
293.7
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
1,038.4
1048.2
1 061.3
1 065.7
1 071.7
1,079.6
202.8
2011
202.5
204.3
206 7
211.7
128 3
126 2
125 6
134 3
129 8
127.0
707.3
720 8
733.3
727.1
735.2
740.9
111.4
114.3
110.1
109.4
117.0
24.9
24 1
25.6
26.8
27.2
27.9
37.9
37.5
37.5
36.5
38.8
38.9
86.2
88.2
88.3
88.5
91.8
91.2
144.1
144.7
146.5
145.7
146.2
146.2
302.8
314.5
321.1
319.5
321.8
319.7
1,089.6
1,109.2
1,142.0
1,142.8
1,161.7
1,197.1
206.3
206.5
216.4
211.0
203.9
209.4
133.8
132.9
134.4
132.1
137.7
139.9
749.6
769.8
791.2
799.7
820.1
849.4
110.0
28.2
39.9
88.7
146.4
336.4
July
Aug
Sept
July
Aug
sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
. .
....
..
..::::;•;
1
2
1118
U.S. savings bonds, series A-F and J, and U.S. savings notes are included at current redemption value.
As of July 31, 1974, public debt outstanding has been adjusted to exclude the notes of the International Monetary Fund to conform
with the Budget presentation. This adjustment applies to the 1967-82 data in this table.
3
For comparability with 1975-82 published data, published data for 1967-74 have been adjusted to exclude notes of the
International Monetary Fund. These adjustments amounted to $3.3 billion in 1967, $2.2 billion in 1968, and $0.8 billion in each year
1969 through 1974. These adjustments were necessary in order to add to the total public debt figures as published by the Department
of 4 Treasury. The Treasury Survey of Ownership on which private investor group estimates were based was discontinued in July 1982.
the
Includes commercial banks, trust companies, and stock savings banks in the United States and Territories and island possessions;
figures exclude securities held in trust departments.
5
Exclusive of banks and insurance companies.
8
Includes trust, sinking, and investment funds of State and local governments and their agencies, and of Territories and possessions.
7
Includes partnerships and personal trust accounts.
6
Includes savings and loan associations, nonprofit institutions, corporate pension trust funds, dealers and brokers, certajn
government deposit accounts and government-sponsored agencies, and investments of foreign balances and international accounts in
the United States.
Note.—Through fiscal year 1976, the fiscal year was on a July 1—June 30 basis; beginning October 1976 (fiscal year 1977), the
fiscal year is on an October 1—September 30 basis.
Source: Department of the Treasury.
255
TABLE B-81.—Maturity distribution and average length of marketable interest-bearing public debt securities
held by private investors, 1967-82
End of year or month
Amount
outstanding,
privately
held
Maturity class
Average length
Within
lyear
Ito5
years
5 to 10
years
10 to 20
years
20 years
and over
Millions of dollars
Years
Months
Fiscal year:
1967
1968
1969
150,321
159,671
156,008
56,561
66,746
69,311
53,584
52,295
50,182
21,057
21,850
18,078
6,153
6,110
6,097
12,968
12,670
12,337
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
157,910
161,863
165,978
167,869
164,862
76,443
74,803
79,509
84,041
87,150
57,035
58,557
57,157
54,139
50,103
8,286
14,503
16,033
16,385
14,197
7,876
6,357
6,358
8,741
9,930
8,272
7,645
6,922
4,564
3,481
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
210,382
279,782
326,674
356,501
380,530
115,677
151,723
161,329
163,819
181.883
65,852
89,151
113,319
132,993
127,574
15,385
24,169
33,067
33,500
32,279
8,857
8,087
8,428
11,383
18,489
4,611
6,652
10,531
14,805
20,304
1980
1981
1982
463,717
549,863
682,043
220,084
256,187
314,436
156,244
182,237
221,783
38,809
48,743
75,749
25,901
32,569
33,017
22,679
30,127
37,058
May"!!"!!!
June
502,248
515,178
532,800
528,992
529,057
531,525
247,958
256,007
263,208
254,533
258,101
252,489
156,845
160,163
167,226
167,570
167,865
172,784
43,969
43,382
46,786
49,616
43,842
47,032
27,241
28,690
28,662
28,587
30,296
30,268
26,235
26,936
26,918
28,685
28,953
28,952
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
533,778
540,228
549,863
558,169
569,534
580,670
251,307
251,533
256,187
263,717
266,163
275,322
171,504
180,669
182,237
177,834
189,570
188,422
50,242
45,297
48,743
52,201
47,615
50,851
30,172
32,602
32,569
32,536
34,164
34,055
30,553
30,127
30,127
31,881
32,022
32,020
590,139
604,671
619,030
613,576
618,699
628,997
284,171
290,697
295,476
289,000
290,476
293,266
183,843
194,457
200,544
199,278
203,612
207,106
54,370
49,120
52,612
55,329
54,361
58,425
34,069
35,819
35,822
35,565
35,701
35,651
33,686
34,578
34,576
34,404
34,549
34,549
634,556
660,583
682,043
685,969
708,769
736,148
295,118
309,446
314,436
321,081
327,565
346,321
206,380
217,258
221,783
218,673
235,443
239,262
63,022
66,347
75,749
75,944
72,644
77,570
35,583
33.097
33,017
33,065
35,750
35,677
34,453
34,435
37,058
37,206
37,367
37,318
5
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
3
1
5
2
8
6
3
1
1
1
8
7
1
1
3
7
9
0
1
1
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
9
1
0
9
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
11
10
1
1
10
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Note.—All issues classified to final maturity.
Through fiscal year 1976, the fiscal year was on a July 1—June 30 basis; beginning October 1976 (fiscal year 1977), the fiscal year
is on an October 1—September 30 basis.
Source: Department of the Treasury.
256
CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE
TABLE B-82.—Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits after tax with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
Corporate
profits with
inventory
valuation
and capital
consumption
adjustments
Corporate
profits tax
liability
1929
9.0
1.4
7.7
5.8
1.9
1933
-1.7
.5
-2.3
2.0
-4.3
1939
5.3
1.4
3.9
3.8
.1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
8.6
14.1
19.3
23.5
23.6
2.8
7.6
11.4
14.1
12.9
58
6.5
7.9
9.5
10.7
40
4.4
43
4.4
4.6
18
2.1
36
5.0
6.1
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
19.0
16 6
22.3
294
27.1
10.7
8.4
91
75
11.3
12.4
10.2
11.0
17.0
16.9
4.6
56
6.3
7.0
7.2
4.7
10 0
9.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
33.9
38.7
36.1
36.3
35.2
17.9
22.6
19.4
20.3
17.6
16.0
16.1
16.7
16.0
17.5
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
7.2
7.6
8.2
7.2
8.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
45 5
43.7
43 3
38.5
49.6
22 0
22.0
214
19.0
23.6
23.4
21.8
21.8
19.5
26.0
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.2
131
10.7
10.3
8.2
13.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
47 6
48.6
56.6
24.9
25.8
32.6
69.2
22 7
22.8
24.0
26 2
28.0
41.2
12.9
13.3
14.4
15.5
17.3
12.1
12.5
18.2
20.4
23.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
80 0
85.1
82 4
89 1
85.1
30 9
33.7
32 5
39 2
39.5
491
51.4
49.9
50.0
45.6
19.1
19.4
20.2
22.0
22.5
30.0
32.0
29.7
27.9
23.1
71.4
83.2
96.6
108.3
94.9
34.2
37.5
41.6
49.0
51.6
37.2
45.7
55.0
59.3
43.3
22.5
22.9
24.4
27.0
29.9
14.8
22.8
30.5
32.3
13.4
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
110.5
138.1
167.3
192.4
194 8
50.6
63.8
72.7
83.2
87.6
59.9
74.3
94.6
109.1
107.2
30.8
37.4
40.8
47.0
52.7
29.1
36.9
53.7
62.2
54.5
1980
1981
1982*
181.6
190.6
161.1
84.7
81.2
58.8
97.0
109.5
102.3
58.1
65.1
70.3
38.9
44.4
32.1
1
II
Ill
(V
195 3
172.2
177.8
181.2
95.3
73.3
82.2
87.8
100.0
98.9
95.6
93.3
56.2
57.8
58.7
59.6
43.9
41.0
36.9
33.7
1
1
1
til
200 3
1851
1931
183.9
91.5
79.2
82.4
71.6
108.9
105.9
110,7
112.3
61.5
64.0
66.8
68.1
47.3
42.0
43.9
44.3
j
||
157 1
155.4
166.2
56.7
55.3
60.9
100.4
100.0
105.3
68.8
69.3
70.5
31.6
30.7
34.8
Year or quarter
621
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
.
1980:
1981:
IV
1982:
t||
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
257
Total
359
Dividends
Undistributed
profits with
inventory
valuation
and capital
consumption
adjustments
3.8
19
TABLE B-83.—Corporate profits by industry, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment
Domestic industries
Year or
quarter
Nonfinancial
Financial >
Total
Total
Federal
Reserve
banks
Other
Total
Total
1929
10.5
10.2
1.3
0.0
1.3
8.9
1933
-1.2
-1.2
.3
.0
.3
-1.5
1939
6.5
6.1
.8
.0
.3
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945 ..
1946
1947
1948
1949
9.8
9.6
15.4
20.5
24.5
24.0
19.3
19.6
25.9
33.4
31.1
15.0
20.1
24.1
23.5
18.9
18.9
24.9
32.2
29.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.7
2.1
1.7
2.6
3.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
1
1
1
1
.2
.2
.9
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.6
2.0
1.6
2.3
2.9
14.0
18.9
22.8
21.9
17.3
16.8
23.2
29.6
26.8
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
37.9
43.3
40.6
40.2
38.4
47.5
46.9
46.6
41.6
52.3
36.7
41.5
38.7
38.4
36.4
45.1
44,1
43.5
39.1
49.6
3.1
3.6
4.0
4.5
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.7
6.8
.2
.3
,4
.4
.3
.3
.5
.6
.6
.7
3.0
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.6
5,1
6.0
33.5
37.9
34.7
33.9
31.8
40.3
39.1
38.3
33.5
42.9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
49.7
50.0
55.1
59 7
66.0
76.0
80.9
78.1
84.9
80.8
46,7
46.8
51.5
55.8
61.8
71.5
76.7
73.7
79.7
74.6
7.2
7.0
7.3
68
6.9
7.5
85
9.0
10.4
11.1
1.0
.8
.9
10
1.1
1.4
17
2.0
2.5
3.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
58
5.8
6.2
68
7.0
7.9
8.0
39.5
39.8
44.2
49 0
54.9
64.0
68 2
64.8
69.3
63.5
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974..
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
68.9
82.0
94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
624
121
74.9
85 3
92.0
80.4
107.6
137.4
163 4
185.4
179.0
14.1
15.9
15.0
11.8
17.1
231
31.0
30.3
7.7
9.6
1980
1981
1982"
199.4
207.5
166.0
169.1
184.6
149.6
29.2
22.7
22.5
11.9
14.5
15.7
17.2
HI
IV
211,0
189.4
197.0
200.4
175.9
157.8
167.5
175.5
31.5
28.6
27.2
29.4
1981:
1
||
Ill
IV
217.6
202.6
210.3
199.4
193 8
181.7
189.3
173.7
167.2
162.2
170.0
150.3
144.1
153.7
1,0
0.9
0.2
.0
-.5
= 7
.0
5.3
3.3
1.0
7
.3
.3
8.6
5.5
9.5
1,3
2.0
3.4
4.4
3.9
2.7
1.8
2.2
3.0
3.0
1.2
1.4
2.2
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.8
4.6
5.5
4.5
.6
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.9
3.6
3.1
.3
.4
.4
.4
.4
.3
7
1.0
1.3
1.1
4.0
4.6
4.9
5.0
47
5.6
5.9
5.8
5.9
7.0
5.0
5.0
4.8
3.8
38
5.0
4.5
4.4
4.6
5.9
3.6
3.7
3.3
3.1
34
3.6
4.1
4.0
3.6
3.6
1.3
17
1.9
1.8
20
2.4
2.8
3.1
2.5
27
7.4
7.8
8.4
93
118
107
4.9
5.0
5.8
59
7,5
8.1
82
9.1
10.8
10.3
10.4
10.5
3.6
3.7
3.9
44
5.1
5.6
63
6.5
6.9
6.1
3.0
3.2
3.6
39
4.2
4.5
42
4.4
5.2
6.1
59
6.5
69
8.0
7.9
65
7.1
86
11.8
13.8
13.2
9.7
9.0
13.6
17.6
16.2
20.9
24.6
21.7
22.0
199
26.0
24.7
24.0
19.4
26.4
23.6
23.3
26.0
29 3
32.3
39.3
419
38.5
41.2
36.6
10.0
11.0
502
266
60.8
700
11.4
76.0
65.4
95.8
120.3
140 3
154.4
148.6
34.1
40 7
45.5
39.0
52.6
69.2
78 3
86.9
85.6
8.1
6.8
140.0
162.0
127.1
74.5
86.3
59.8
17.4
19.1
11.6
12.5
11.4
12.2
19.9
16.1
15.8
17.1
144.4
129.2
140.3
146.1
26 8
22.7
20 8
20.4
13 2
14.2
15 2
15.6
13 6
8.6
55
4.8
20.0
22.2
24.2
16.1
16.0
15.8
3.9
6.2
8.4
11.1
16 9
23.3
20.7
Other
1.8
86
62
Kesi
of the
world
5.2
119
9.3
6.2
n ot .+
Wholesafe
and
retail
trade
-.4
10.7
153
36
3.3
34
4.5
5.7
5.7
6.0
Manufacturing2
Transportation
and
public
utilities
82
8.5
90
8.7
6.1
95
11,7
13 4
13.9
12.5
21.3
22.4
26 6
26.9
27.1
11.9
14.2
17 6
20.0
20.1
19.7
30.6
187
24.6
33.4
28.1
23.4
23.1
20.6
30.3
22.8
16.4
85.2
64.7
70.0
78.1
16.8
13.9
21.5
17.5
19.7
27.1
24.4
27.3
227
35.1
23.5
24.3
23.3
317
29.6
24.9
167 0
159.0
168 5
153.3
90 3
88.9
92 2
73.7
201
33 0
32.1
236
238
196
21.2
330
357
22.5
23 7
22.7
210
257
130.4
121,9
129.5
57.7
56.6
62.7
18.8
18,5
19.2
31.9
26.8
27.4
21.9
20.0
20.3
16.9
18.2
16.3
10.0
14.5
17 8
20.6
15.9
13.7
16.3
13.0
14,3
151
1980:
1
II.
15.6
2Q.B
1982:
|.
||
Ill
1
Consists of the following industries: Banking; credit agencies other than banks; security and commodity brokers, dealers, and
services; insurance carriers; regulated investment companies; small business investment companies; and real estate investment trusts.
' See Table B-84 for industry detail.
Note.—The industry classification is on a company basis and is based on the 1972 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) beginning
1948, and on the 1942 SIC prior to 1948.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
258
TABLE B-84.—Corporate profits of manufacturing industries, 2929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment
Durable goods
Year or quarter
Total
manufacturing
Primary
metal
industries
Total
Nondurable goods
Fabri- Machin- Electric Motor
and
ery,
cated
elec- vehicles
and
metal except tronic
prod- electri- equip- equipment
cal
ucts
ment
Other
Food Chemi- Petroleum
cals
and
and
and
kindred allied
coal
prod- prod- products
ucts
ucts
Total
1929
5.2
2.6
1933
4
4
1939
3.3
1.7
17
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
5.5
95
11.8
13.8
13 2
9.7
90
13.6
17.6
16.2
3.1
64
7.2
8.1
74
4.5
24
5.8
7.5
8.1
1.6
1.5
.8
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.8
20.9
24.6
217
22.0
199
26.0
24 7
24.0
194
26.4
12.0
13.2
117
11.9
10 5
14.3
12 8
13.3
93
13.7
2.3
3.1
19
2.5
17
2.9
30
3.0
19
2.3
23 6
23.3
26.0
29.3
32.3
393
41.9
38.5
41.2
36.6
116
11.4
14.0
16.3
17.9
230
23.8
20.9
22.2
18.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
26 6
34.1
40.7
45.5
39.0
52.6
69.2
78.3
86.9
85.6
10 2
16.3
22.4
24.3
13.2
18.9
30.4
38.1
44.3
37.1
1980 ...
1981
1982"
74.5
86.3
59.8
Other
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1980:
||
III
I
V
1981:
II .
H
I
I
V
1982:
I
tl
M
l
.
. .
...
2.6
o
.7
.8
1.4
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.1
1.3
10
1.0
9
1.0
11
1.1
9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.6
2.3
23
1.9
17
1.7
21
2.0
14
2.1
2.4
31
4.6
5.7
59
5.2
6.6
7.8
10.0
8.1
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.7
3.1
2.4
24
2.6
2.1
4.1
2.2
2.6
.9
3.0
2.6
2.8
26
2.6
2.9
3.5
3.2
3.1
2.9
3.5
8.9
11.4
99
10.1
9.4
11.8
119
10.7
100
12.7
1.6
1.4
17
1.8
16
2.2
18
1.8
21
2.4
20
1.6
16
2.0
2.5
31
3.6
2.7
1.9
1.4
8
1.0
11
1.3
1.4
20
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.0
18
1.9
23
2.5
3.3
39
4.5
4.1
4.1
3.7
13
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.7
2.7
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.3
30
2.5
4.0
4.9
4.7
62
5.1
3.9
5.5
4.7
27
3.1
35
4.0
4.4
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.7
4.9
12.0
11.9
12.0
13.1
14.4
16.3
18.1
17.6
19.1
17.7
8
1.6
2.2
5.4
2.9
2.1
1.1
3.5
3.5
11
1.5
2.1
2.5
1.6
3.0
3.8
4.4
4.9
5.2
29
2.9
4.3
4.6
2.9
4.7
6.3
8.8
9.4
8.9
1.2
1.9
2.8
3.0
1.2
5.0
5.9
5.7
2.1
3.4
5.6
6.5
5.1
1.9
7.2
9.4
8.9
4.7
2.9
4.3
5.7
6.2
2.9
4.3
7.6
8.8
11.0
9.8
20.7
28.4
11.4
2.9
4.1
-5.1
4.4
4.9
4.4
7.2
9.3
5.1
4.4
5.1
3.5
-5.0
-1.1
1.1
85.2
64.7
70.0
78.1
25.5
12.4
18.2
26.5
4.7
2.6
,1
42
5.4
2.8
4.3
5.0
7.2
7.0
7.4
7.2
90.3
88.9
92.2
73.7
32.1
35.2
27.4
18.9
7.0
4.7
4.1
.7
4.7
6.0
5.4
3.4
8.4
9.2
9.6
9.9
57 7
56.6
62.7
91
12.7
12.2
-31
-6.5
-5.4
4.4
3.8
4.7
8.3
4.8
3.7
3.7
2.8
2.3
2.8
2.3
2.2
2.2
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.5
3.5
2.8
1.9
2.3
2.7
23
2.8
2.7
3.0
3.3
2.6
2.1
2.5
22
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.7
2.8
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.6
4.9
4.3
5.2
4.5
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.9
3.2
3.9
3.7
3.2
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.6
5.3
6.0
6.8
6.3
7.0
6.9
16.5
17.8
18.3
21.2
25.8
33.6
38.8
40.2
42.6
48.4
3.2
3.5
2.9
2.4
2.8
8.6
6.9
6.8
6.0
5.7
3.9
4.4
5.2
6.0
5.6
6.5
8.3
7.9
8.3
7.1
3.5
3.5
3.0
5.0
10.5
9.6
12.6
11.6
13.8
20.7
5.9
6.4
7.2
7.8
6.6
8.9
11.0
13.8
14.5
14.8
6.8
6.2
2.3
53.8
57.9
48.4
6.2
8.7
6.5
6.7
8.2
5.7
28.0
26.6
24.4
13.0
14.4
11.7
5.2 - 3 . 7
3.5 -10.6
4.3 - 4 . 1
4.5 - 1 . 4
6.7
7.1
6.3
7.1
59.6
52.3
51.8
51.6
6.6
5.5
4.9
7.6
7.4
5.5
6.6
7.4
31.5
29.1
27.7
23.5
14.1
12.2
12.7
12.9
6.2
4.9
4.8
4.3
-2.6
2.6
-2.8
-1.8
8.4
7.8
6.3
2.4
58.2
53.7
64.8
54.7
10.4
8.5
7.7
8.1
9.4
7.5
8.0
7.8
23.5
23.3
35.1
24.7
14.9
14.4
14.1
14.1
3.6
3.7
3.2
-4.1
3.3
3.2
.0
3.5
2.7
48.6
43.9
50.5
6.7
6.3
7.0
6.5
5.8
5.1
25.4
20.4
25.9
10.0
11.4
12.5
2.7
4.4
36
3.3
2.9
3.6
4.1
3.6
3.3
4.3
Note.—The industry classification is on a company basis and is based on the 1972 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) beginning
1948, and on the 1942 SIC prior to 1948.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
259
TABLE B-85.—Sates, profits, and stockholders1 equity, all manufacturing corporations, 1950-82
[Billions of dollars]
All manufacturing corporations
Year or
quarter
1950..
1951..
1952.,
1953.,
1954,,
1955.,
1956.,
1957.,
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1973: IV
New series:
1973: IV
Profits
Sales
(net)
Before After
income income
taxes 1 taxes
Stockholders'
equity*
Durable goods industries
Profits
Sales
(net)
Before After
income income
taxes' taxes
Nondurable goods industries
Stockholders'
equity 8
Profits
Sales
(net)
Before After
income income
taxes> taxes
Stockholders'
equity"
181.9
245.0
250.2
265.9
248.5
278.4
307.3
320.0
305.3
338.0
23.2
27.4
22.9
24.4
20.9
12.9
11.9
10.7
11.3
11.2
83.3
98.3
103.7
108.2
113.1
116.8
122.0
137.9
122.8
12.9
15.4
12.9
14.0
11.4
6.7
6.1
5.5
5.8
5.6
39.9
47.2
49.8
52.4
54.9
95.1
128.1
128.0
128.0
125.7
10.3
12.1
10,0
10.4
9.6
6.1
5.7
5.2
5.5
5.6
43.5
51.1
53.9
55.7
58.2
28.6
29.8
28.2
22.7
29.7
15.1
16.2
15.4
12.7
16.3
120.1
131.6
141.1
147.4
157.1
142.1
159.5
166.0
148.6
169.4
16.5
16.5
15.8
11.4
15.8
8.1
8.3
7.9
5.8
8.1
58.8
65.2
70.5
72.8
77.9
136.3
147.8
154.1
156.7
168.5
12.1
13.2
12.4
11.3
13.9
7.0
7.8
7.5
6.9
8.3
61.3
66.4
70.6
74.6
79,2
345.7
356.4
389.4
412.7
443.1
27.5
27.5
31.9
34.9
39.6
15.2
15.3
17.7
19.5
23.2
165.4
172.6
181.4
189.7
199.8
173.9
175.2
195.3
209.0
226.3
14.0
13.6
16.8
18.5
21.2
7.0
6.9
8.6
9.5
11.6
82.3
84.9
89.1
93.3
98.5
171.8
181.2
194.1
203.6
216.8
13.5
13.9
15.1
16.4
18.3
8.2
8.5
9.2
10.0
11.6
83.1
87.7
92.3
96.3
101.3
492.2
554.2
575.4
631.9
694.6
46.5
51.8
47.8
55.4
58.1
27.5
30.9
29.0
32.1
33.2
211.7
230.3
247.6
265.9
289.9
257.0
291.7
300.6
335.5
366.5
26.2
29.2
25.7
30.6
31.5
14.5
16.4
14.6
16.5
16.9
105.4
115.2
125.0
135.6
147.6
235.2
262.4
274.8
296.4
328.1
13.0
14.6
14.4
15.5
16.4
106.3
115.1
122.6
130.3
142.3
708,8
751.1
849.5
1,017.2
28.6
31.0
36.5
48.1
306.8
320.8
343.4
374.1
363.1
381.8
435.8
527.3
23.0
26.5
33.6
43.6
12.9
14.5
18.4
24.8
155.1
160.4
171.4
188.7
345.7
369.3
413.7
489.9
15.7
16.5
18.0
23.3
151.7
160.5
172.0
185.4
275.1
48.1
52.9
63.2
81.4
21.4
20.3
22.6
22.0
24.8
26.6
25.2
26.5
29.6
37.8
13.0
386.4
140.1
10.8
6.3
194.7
135.0
10.6
6.7
191.7
182.1
236.6
20.6
13.2
368.0
122.7
10.1
6.2
185.8
113.9
10.5
7.0
1974
1,060.6
92.1
58.7
395.0
529.0
41.1
24.7
196.0
531.6
51.0
34.1
199.0
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1,065.2
1,203.2
1,328.1
1,496.4
1,741.8
79.9
104.9
115.1
132.5
154.2
49.1
64.5
70.4
81.1
98.7
423.4
462.7
496.7
540.5
600.5
521.1
589.6
657.3
760.7
865.7
35.3
50.7
57.9
69.6
72.4
21.4
30.8
34.8
41.8
45.2
208.1
224.3
239.9
262.6
292.5
544.1
613.7
670.8
735.7
876.1
44.6
54.3
57.2
62.9
81.8
27.7
33.7
35.5
39.3
53.5
215.3
238.4
256.8
277.9
308.0
1,912.8
2,144.7
145.8
158.5
92.6
101.3
668.1
743.4
889.1
979.5
57.4
67.2
35.6
41.7
317.7
350.4
1,023.7
1,165.2
88.4
91.3
56.9
59.6
350.4
393.0
406.6
436.4
437.5
461.2
36.5
42.6
38.2
36.8
22.7
26.8
24.7
24.5
576.2
592.5
609.2
624.0
207.5
222.6
213.6
221.9
18.8
21.6
16.4
15.7
11.4
13.3
10.3
10.1
281.9
289.3
296.5
302.1
199.1
213.8
223.9
239.3
17.7
21.1
21.9
21.2
11.2
13.5
14.4
14.4
294.3
303.2
312.6
321.9
465.7
466.3
464.2
516.6
39.5
35.9
33.2
37.2
24.8
22.4
21.0
24.4
643.9
658.1
670.5
699.7
219.8
218.7
212.6
238.0
15.8
13.5
11.9
16.2
9.7
8.2
7.2
10.4
308.0
312.6
317.2
332.8
245.9
247.6
251.6
278.6
23.7
22.4
21.3
21.0
15,1
14.2
13,7
14.0
335.9
345.5
353.3
366.9
520.8
549.6
539.9
534.4
39.0
45.6
40.0
34.0
24.4
28.9
25.2
22.9
718.4
739.4
753.5
762.3
234.1
257.2
245.1
243.0
16.7
20.7
16.4
13.4
10.1
12.7
10.3
8.5
339.4
349.7
354.2
358.3
286.7
292.4
294.8
291.3
22.3
24.9
23.5
20.6
14.2
16.2
14.9
14.3
379.1
389,7
399,4
404.0
501.0
520.1
507.1
28.9
30.9
27.8
19.0
20.0
17.8
756.5
764.1
774.3
226.4
240.3
225.3
10.8
12.7
8.5
6.8
8.2
5.3
353.0
356.5
360.1
274.6
279.8
281.8
18.1
18.2
19.3
12.2
11.8
12.5
403.5
407.6
414.2
1979:
I
I
I
III...,
IV....
1980:
I
I
I
IV
1981:
n'Z!
Ill
IV
1982:
"
Z
1
In the old series, "income taxes" refers to Federal income taxes only, as State and local income taxes had already been deducted.
In 1 new series, no income taxes have been deducted.
the
Annual data are average equity for the year (using four end-of-quarter figures).
Note.—Data are not necessarily comparable from one period to another due to changes in accounting procedures, industry
classifications, sampling procedures, etc. For explanatory notes concerning compilation of the series, see "Quarterly Financial Report for
Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission.
Source: Federal Trade Commission.
260
TABLE B-86.—Relation ofprofits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, all manufacturing
corporations, 1947-82
Ratio of profits after income taxes (annual
rate) to stockholders' equity—percent *
Year or quarter
Profits after income taxes per dollar of
sales—cents
All
manufacturing
corporations
Durable
goods
industries
Nondurable
goods
industries
At!
manufacturing
corporations
Durable
Roods
industries
Nondurable
" goods
industries
15.6
16.0
11.6
14.4
15.7
12.1
16.6
16.2
11.2
6.7
7.0
5.8
6.7
7.1
6.4
6.7
6.8
5.4
15.4
121
10.3
10.5
9.9
16.9
13.0
11.1
1U
10.3
14.1
11.2
9.7
9.9
9.6
7.1
49
4.3
4.3
4.5
7.7
53
4.5
4.2
4.6
6.5
45
4.1
4.3
4.4
12 6
12.3
10 9
8.6
10.4
92
8.9
98
10.3
11.6
13.8
12.8
11.3
8.0
10.4
11.4
11.8
10.6
9.2
10.4
54
5.3
48
4.2
4.8
57
5.2
4.8
3.9
4.8
51
5.3
49
4.4
4.9
8.5
8.1
9.6
10.1
11.7
9.8
9.6
9.9
10.4
11.5
44
4.3
45
4.7
5.2
40
3.9
44
4.5
5.1
48
4.7
47
4.9
5.4
13 0
13.4
117
12.1
11.5
13.8
14.2
11.7
12.2
11.4
12.2
12.7
11.8
11.9
11.5
5.6
5.6
5.0
5.1
4.8
5.7
5.6
4.8
4.9
4.6
55
5.6
53
5.2
5.0
1970 ..
1971
1972 ..
1973
93
9.7
106
12.8
8.3
9.0
10.8
13.1
10.3
10.3
10.5
12.6
40
4.1
4.3
4.7
3,5
3.8
4.2
4.7
45
4.5
4.4
4.8
1973- IV
13.4
12.9
14.0
4.7
4.5
5.0
New series:
1973: IV
14.3
6.1
1947
1948 ..
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
„
.
..
.
..
„
I960 ..
1961
1962 ..
1963
1964 ..
1965 „
1966
1967 ..
1968
1969 ..
.
.
13.3
15.3
5.6
5.0
1974 ..
1975
1976 ..
1977
1978 ..
1979
14.9
12.6
17.1
5.5
4.7
6.4
116
13 9
14.2
15 0
16.4
10.3
13 7
14.5
16 0
15.4
12.9
14.2
13.8
14.2
17.4
4.6
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.7
4.1
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.2
5.1
55
5.3
5.3
6.1
1980 .
1981
13 9
13.6
112
11.9
16.3
15.2
4.8
4.7
4.0
4.3
5.6
5.1
1979:
|
11 .
HI
IV
15 7
181
16.3
15.7
16.2
18 4
14.0
13.4
15.3
17.8
18.4
17.9
5.6
6.1
5.7
5.3
5.5
6.0
4.8
4.6
5.6
6.3
6.4
6.0
1980:
I
II
HI
IV ..
15 4
13 6
12.5
14.0
12.6
10 6
9.1
12.6
18.0
16.4
15.6
15.2
5.3
4.8
4.5
4.7
4.4
3.8
3.4
4.4
6.1
5.7
5.5
5.0
13.6
15.6
13.4
12.0
12.0
14.6
11.6
9.5
15.0
16.6
14.9
14.2
4.7
5.3
4.7
4.3
4.3
4.9
4.2
3.5
5.0
5.5
5.1
4.9
101
10 5
9.2
7.7
9.2
5.9
12.1
11.6
12.1
3.8
3.9
3.5
3.0
3.4
2.4
4.4
4.2
4.4
1981:
||
Ill
IV ..
1982:
1 ,
||
III
1
Annual ratios based on average equity for the year (using four end-of-quarter figures). Quarterly ratios based on equity at end of
quarter only.
Note—Based on data in millions of dollars.
See Note, Table B-85.
Source: Federal Trade Commission.
261
TABLE B-87.—Relation ofprofits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, all manufacturing
corporations, by industry group, 1981-82
Ratio of profits after income taxes (annual
rate) to stockholders' equity—percentl
Industry
1981
All manufacturing corporations....
Durable goods industries
,
Stone, cfay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical and electronic equipment,.,,...,....,
Transportation equipment1
Motor vehicles and equipment
Aircraft, guided missiles, and
parts
Instruments and related products...
Other durable manufacturing
products
Nondurable goods industries
Food and kindred products. ...
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products*...
Industrial chemicals and synthetics
Drugs
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics
products
Other nondurable manufacturing
products
1981
1982
1982
13,4
12.0
10.1
10.5
9.2
4.7
4.3
3.8
3,9
3.5
U.6
9.5
7.7
9.2
5.9
4.2
3.5
3,0
3.4
2.4
11.9
13.9
5,8
3.0
-3.7
4.6
-3.4
7.3
-8.3
4.6
4.9
2.5
1.2
1.9
»1.3
2.9
-3.7
L8
-6.2
1,0
-13.2
-.9
5.9
2.6
.0
3.6
18
-2.3
.4
-5.5
-.5
18.4
6.3
14.1
14.1
9.4
15.5
9.8
11.8
9,9
10.8
5.1
7,3
4.2
6.3
2.9
6.8
3,2
5.7
3.1
5.2
1.7
3.8
12.9
1.9
12.3
3.8
12.6
4.3
12.6
11.6
11.4
4.6
4.5
.6
4.3
1.1
4.7
1.3
4.6
3.2
4.4
1.4
-6.9
-1.6
.0
11.8
-.2
-2.2
-.5
.0
3.2
-.1
13.9
11.7
10.8
U.6
12.6
4.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.7
17.7
14.9
13.3
15.3
14.7
9.4
7.9
7,6
8.3
7.9
9.8
5.9
2,4
8.3
6.9
2.8
1.8
,8
2.5
2.1
14.9
14.2
12.1
U.6
12.1
13.8
19.4
9.9
9,7
15.6
13.9
14.6
18.6
6.5
12,5
15,5
13.3
12.6
18.4
2.6
6.2
9.7
13.0
12.3
21.3
4.9
6.5
13.8
12.2
11.9
16.1
11.4
18.6
8.9
20.8
4.9
4.4
4.2
4.4
11.9
20.8
8.4
6.1
13.5
10.7
3.2
U.3
2.6
3.9
5.2
6.5
3.3
10.9
1.7
5.4
5.1
6.7
3.1
11.4
.8
2.8
3.4
6.4
2.9
12.5
1.4
2.8
4.7
6.0
2.8
12.2
2.5
2.7
4.5
5.3
7.7
17.6
5.6
18.9
5,3
10.2
5.6
12.4
4.3
13.6
4.0
11.8
2.8
12.3
17.4
15.4
13.9
U.6
13.8
6.4
5.8
5.7
4.9
6.0
11.4
9.1
8.7
10.4
9,0
3.3
2.8
2.7
3.1
2.9
14,4
15.0
7.0
9.6
12.0
3.3
3.3
1.7
2.4
2.7
1
Ratios based on equity at end of quarter.
* Includes other industries not shown separately.
Source: Federal Trade Commission.
Profits after income taxes per dollar
of sales—cents
262
TABLE B-88.—Determinants of businessfixedinvestment 1955-82
[Percent, except as noted]
Nonfmancial corporations
Real
investment
as
percent
of real
GNP
manufacturing 1
Cash
flow as
percent
of
GNP2
1955
1956
1957
1958...
1959
9.3
9.7
9.7
8.7
8.8
87.1
86.4
83.7
75.2
81.9
9.3
8.9
8.9
8.6
9.3
19.8
16.8
15.2
12.8
16.4
9.8
79
7.4
6.5
8.5
13.1
116
10.5
8.4
10.5
6.2
54
5.0
39
5.1
1.112
1104
1.018
1041
1.252
1960
1961. .
1962
1963....
1964
9.1
8.8
9.0
9.0
9.4
80.2
77.4
81.6
83.5
85.6
8.9
8.8
9.4
9.7
10.1
15.0
15.1
17.4
18.8
20.2
8.0
8.2
10.3
11.2
12.5
9.9
9.5
11.2
12.1
13.3
5.0
4.6
6.1
6.7
7.8
1.222
1350
1.282
1419
1.521
10 5
11.0
10 4
10.3
10 7
89 6
91.1
86 9
87.1
86.2
106
10.3
10 0
221
21.8
19.3
18.9
16.5
14 0
13.7
12 4
11.3
15 5
15.2
134
13.8
12.5
96
1621
1466
1480
1.523
1353
10.5
10.0
10.2
11.0
10.9
79.3
78.4
83.5
87.6
83.8
7.8
7.9
8.8
9.9
10.5
12.8
11.2
4.7
8.3
8.6
8.0
7.0
12.8
13.5
14.3
14.3
11.0
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
9.7
9.7
10.2
11.0
11.5
72.9
79.5
81.9
84.4
85.7
11.9
12.9
13.9
13.7
12.1
7.7
8.5
8.6
10.2
10.7
10.2
5.2
9.3
9.7
9.5
8.9
4.8
6.3
6.8
6.6
.811
.911
.797
.761
.709
1980
1981
1982*
11.3
114
11.2
79.1
78.5
69.8
10.5
11.0
9.5
6.6
77
8.4
7.7
<fl)
5.5
51
.666
694
.690
Year
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
..
..
.
ity
utilization
9.4
8.6
9.0
8.7
95
9.6
Rate of r
eturn on
depreciab e assets 3
Before
tax
After
tax
9.7
8.5
9.1
8.7
6.1
7.9
8.7
8.6
7.4
7.5
Rate of return on
stockholders'
equity*
Before
tax
After
tax
9.2
82
8.0
71
5.7
6.2
8.3
7.3
6
()
Ratio of
market
value to
ment
cost of
net
assets 6
1091
1.176
1258
1.157
827
1
Federal Reserve Board index.
2
Cash flow calculated as after-tax profits plus capitaj consumption allowance plus inventory valuation adjustment.
3
Profits plus capital consumption adjustment and inventory valuation adjustment plus net interest paid divided by the stock of
depreciable assets valued at current replacement cost.
4
Profits corrected for inflation effects divided by net worth (physical capital component valued at current replacement cost).
5
Equity plus interest-bearing debt divided by current replacement cost of net assets.
« Not available.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Council of
Economic Advisers.
263
TABLE B-89.—Sources and uses of funds, nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business, 1946-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources
Uses
External
Year or
quarter
Discrep-
Credit market funds
Total
Internal'
Total
Total
Securities and
mortgages
Loans
and
shortterm
Other 2
Total
Capita)
expenditures 3
ancy
Increase
(sources
in
financial less uses)
assets
1946
1947
1948..
1949
18.7
27.0
28.9
19.9
8.1
12.9
19.1
19.5
10.6
14.1
9.7
.4
6.9
8.4
6.5
3.1
3.6
5.4
6.7
4.9
3.3
3.0
-.2
= 1.8
3.7
5.8
3.3
-2.7
16.8
25.6
25.3
18.3
18.1
17.3
20.3
14.8
-1.4
8.4
5.0
3.5
1.9
1.4
3.6
1.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
42.1
36.4
29.9
27.8
29.6
18.0
20.2
21.9
21.7
23.9
24.0
16.2
8.0
6.1
5.7
8.1
10.5
9.5
5.7
6.5
4.2
6.4
8.0
6.0
6.7
3.9
4.1
1.4
-.4
-.2
15.9
5.7
-1.5
.5
-.8
40.4
37.6
29.2
28.0
27.8
24.0
30.2
24.6
25.7
22.9
16.4
7.4
4.6
2.3
4.9
1.7
^1.2
.6
=.1
1.8
1955..
1956
1957
1958..
1959
52.7
44.9
43.4
41.9
56.3
29.5
29.5
31.5
30.3
36.0
23.2
15.4
11.9
11.7
20.2
10.2
12.8
12.3
10.5
12.3
6.4
7.5
10.4
10.5
8.1
3.7
5.3
1.9
-.0
4.2
13.1
2.5
-.4
1.2
7.9
49.1
40.8
39.1
38.5
51.2
32.6
36.8
34.9
27.7
37.0
16.5
4.0
4.2
10.8
14.2
3.5
4.1
4.3
3.4
5.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
48.6
56.3
60.1
68.4
73.9
35.4
36.5
42.8
46.5
51.8
13.2
19.8
17.3
22.0
22.1
12.1
12.9
12.8
12.5
14.1
7.5
10.7
9.4
8.4
7.8
4.6
2.2
3.4
4.0
6.2
1.2
6.9
4.6
9.5
8.0
41.4
51.0
55.5
60.4
64.9
37.5
36.7
43.2
44.7
50.1
3.9
14.2
12.3
15,7
14.8
7.2
5.3
4.6
8.0
9.0
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
91.8
97.6
94.7
113.5
115.5
58.5
62.6
63.6
65.0
64.4
33.3
35.0
31.1
48.5
51.1
18.5
23.8
27.8
27.7
32.3
7.6
14.3
19.1
15.0
14.6
11.0
9.5
8.7
12.6
17.7
14.8
11.2
3.3
20.9
18.8
82.7
91.3
88.5
106.0
115.3
61.0
74.7
72.2
75.4
83.7
21.8
16.6
16.3
30.6
31.6
9.1
6.4
6.2
7.5
.2
1970
1971
1972
1973,.
1974
102.3
125.3
151.6
192.4
190.1
61.8
73.5
85.0
91.7
85.6
40.5
51.8
66.6
100.7
104.4
35.3
37.2
43.4
56.7
69.9
26.3
32.8
2M
20.7
26.3
9.0
4.4
16.9
36.0
43.6
5.3
14.6
23.2
44.0
34.5
98.7
122.7
149.1
191.9
190.1
80.0
86.0
99.0
121.5
137.9
18.7
36.7
50.1
70.5
52.2
3.6
2.6
2.4
.5
.0
1975..
1976
1977
1978
1979
156.9
210.8
252.2
315.4
346.3
119.7
134.2
157.4
175.7
188.8
37.2
76.6
94.9
139.7
157.5
30J
54.5
70.4
79.3
91.2
38.7
38.2
33.9
31.9
25.9
-8.0
16.3
36.5
47.4
6!).3
6.5
22.1
24.5
60.4
66.3
150.9
201.8
237.6
294.2
347.1
109.7
148.3
175.1
202.2
219.8
41.2
53.5
62.5
92.0
127.3
6.0
9.0
14.7
21.2
1980
333.7
352.2
197.5
231.1
136.2
121.1
95.7
92.6
57.5
23.1
38.2
69.6
40.6
28.5
317.9
314.8
220.5
260.9
97.4
53.9
15.8
37.4
363.2
263.4
326.4
381.9
192.6
197.4
199.3
200.8
170.6
66.0
127.2
181.1
114.7
62.6
86.6
118.7
46.1
58.6
63.7
61.7
68.6
4.0
22.9
57.1
55.9
3.4
40.5
62.4
341.2
248.7
314.2
367.5
231.3
215.6
209.9
225.2
103.9
33.1
104.3
142.3
22.0
14.7
12.2
14.4
333.6
381.2
348.9
345.0
222.4
225.4
235.2
241.4
111.3
155.8
113.7
103.6
68.7
119.1
100.2
82.5
41.6
34.8
3.2
12.7
27.1
84.3
97.0
69.9
42.6
36.7
13.5
21.1
318.2
352.2
304.6
284.0
233.5
260.0
284.6
265.5
84.7
92.2
20.0
18.5
15.4
29.0
44.2
61.0
297.7
348.2
371.7
232.6
234.3
240.3
65.0
113.9
131.3
110.2
93.3
98.0
30.6
33.1
59.3
79.7
60.3
38.7
-45.2
20.5
33.3
225.3
304.9
328.5
241.9
248.5
264.2
-16.6
56.4
64.3
72.3
43.3
43.1
1981
1980:
\\'Z
Ill
IV
1981:
I
II
Ill
IV
1982:
H'Z
Ill*.
1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign
branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad.
1
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the United States.
3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
264
TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liabilities of U.S. corporations, 1939-82
[Billions of dollars]
Current liabilities
Current assets
End of year
or quarter
Total
Cash1
U.S.
Government
securities2
Notes
Other
and
accounts Inven- current
receiv- tories assets
able
Total
Net
Notes
Other
Current
and
current working ratio3
capital
accounts liabilpayable ities
All corporation s*
SEC series:
1939
5
10.8
2.2
22.1
18.0
1.4
60.3
72 9
83.6
93 8
97.2
97 4
108.1
123 6
133.0
133.1
13.1
139
17.6
216
21.6
21.7
22.8
25.0
25.3
26.5
2.0
40
10.1
164
20.9
211
15.3
24.0
28 0
27.3
26.9
26.5
25.9
30.7
38.3
42.4
43.0
19.8
25 6
27.3
27 6
26.8
26 3
37.6
44 6
48.9
45.3
1.5
14
1.3
13
1.4
24
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
161.5
1791
186.2
190 6
194 6
224.0
237 9
244.7
255 3
277.3
28.1
30 0
30.8
31.1
33 4
34.6
34.8
34.9
37.4
36.3
55.1
64 9
65.8
67 2
65 3
72.8
18.6
18 8
22.8
56.8
61.5
67.4
68.5
73 6
88.9
97.7
102.2
109.7
120.6
I960
1961
289.0
306.8
37.2
41.1
20.1
20.0
129.2
139.2
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
54.5
141
14.8
16.8
19.7
207
19.9
21.5
19 2
23.5
191
1.7
16
1.6
1.4
1.7
30.0
21.9
8.1
24.5
1.817
32.8
40 7
47.3
516
51.7
45 8
51.9
61.5
64.4
60.7
23.2
26 4
26.0
26 3
26.8
25 7
31.6
37 6
39.3
37.5
9.6
14 3
21.3
253
24.9
201
20.3
23 9
25.0
23.3
27.5
32 3
36.3
421
45.6
51.6
56.2
62.1
68.6
72.4
1.838
1791
1.767
1.818
1.880
2.127
2.083
2.010
2.065
2.193
48 3
54 9
59.3
59 5
76.1
83 9
86.6
90 4
101.0
31.6
37 8
36.8
39 4
38 0
45.0
46 6
46.5
46 2
52.0
81.6
86 5
90.1
918
94 9
103.0
107 4
111.6
118.7
124.2
2.024
1934
1.938
1.927
1952
1.851
1.823
1.838
1.869
1.811
106.8
114.6
53.6
56.6
128.6
135.6
1.802
1.792
804
31
4.2
59
82.2
819
88,4
6.7
75
9.1
79.8
92 6
96.1
98.9
99 7
121.0
130.5
133.1
136.6
153.1
91.8
95.2
10.6
11.4
160.4
171.2
21
2.4
24
617
Nonfinancial corporations6
SEC series:5
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1966
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
FTC-FRB series:7
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
1
It
Ill
I
V
254.7
269.7
288 2
305.6
336 0
364.0
386 2
426.5
473.6
34.8
37.1
39 8
40.5
42.8
41.9
45.5
48.2
47.9
16.5
16.8
16 7
15.8
14 4
13.0
103
11.5
10.6
97.9
103.2
110 5
119.9
1341
146.6
155.3
173.9
197.0
95.0
100 5
106 8
113.1
126 6
142.8
1531
166.0
186.4
10.5
12.1
14 4
16.3
181
19.7
22 0
26.9
31.6
123.7
132.4
145 5
156.6
178 8
199.4
211.3
244.1
287.8
84.4
88.7
97 0
104.9
1215
137.5
147.1
168.8
199.2
39.3
43.7
48 5
51.7
57.3
61.9
64.2
75.3
88.6
131.0
137.3
142 7
149.0
157.2
164.6
174.9
182.4
185.7
2.059
2.037
1.981
1.951
1.879
1.825
1.828
1.747
1.646
492 3
529.6
599.3
697.8
790.7
50 2
53.3
59.0
66.3
71.1
77
11.0
10.6
12.8
12.3
2061
221.1
248.2
288.5
322.1
1933
200.4
225.7
263.9
313.6
35 0
43.8
55.8
66.4
71.7
304 9
326.0
375.6
450.9
530.4
2113
220.5
282.9
340.3
402.3
93 6
105.5
92.7
110.7
128.1
187.4
203.6
223.7
246.9
260.3
1.615
1.625
1.595
1.548
1.491
735.4
759.0
827 4
912 7
1043 7
1,218.2
73.2
82.1
88.2
97 2
105 5
118.0
11.1
19.0
23 5
18 2
17 3
17.0
265.8
272.1
292 9
330 3
388 0
461.1
319.5
315.9
342 5
376 9
4316
505.5
65.9
69.9
80.3
1013
116.7
453.4
451.6
495.1
557.1
669 3
807.8
269.8
264.2
282.1
317 6
382 9
461.2
183.6
187.4
213.0
239 6
286 4
346.6
282.0
307.4
332.4
355.5
374.4
410.5
1.622
1.681
1.671
1.638
1.559
1.508
1.333.5
1.427.1
127.1
131.7
19.3
17.9
510.6
536.7
543.7
587.1
132.7
153.6
890.9
980.0
515.2
562,9
375.7
417.1
442.6
447.1
1.497
1.456
1,374.5
1,388.3
1,410.9
1,427.1
126.6
126.2
125.1
131.7
19.2
19.9
18.0
17.9
528.0
533.1
542.4
536.7
560.2
565.3
577.0
587.1
140.5
143.8
148.3
153.6
923.2
931.5
967.2
980.0
520.3
525.9
549.5
562.9
402.9
405.5
417.7
417.1
451.3
456.8
443.7
447.1
1.489
1.490
1.459
1.456
1,423.6
1,419.4
121.3
123.4
17.1
17.4
537.8
534.4
593.8
589.2
153.6
155.0
985.7
982.6
555.0
554.9
430.8
427.8
437.9
436.8
1.444
1.445
901
1982:
It
1
2
3
4
5
6
Includes time certificates of deposit.
Includes Federat agency issues.
Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
Excludes banks, savings and loan associations, and insurance companies.
Based on data from 'Statistics of Income," Department of the Treasury.
Excludes banks, savings and loan associations, insurance companies, investment companies, finance companies (personal and
commercial), real estate companies, and security and commodity brokers, dealers, and exchanges.
7
Based on data from "Quarterly financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations," Federal Trade Commission. See
"Federal Reserve Bulletin," July 1978, for details regarding the series.
Note.—SEC series not available after 1974.
Sources: Board of Governors of the federat Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.
265
TABLE B-91.—State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-82
[Millions of dollars]
Year or quarter
State
and
municipal
securities
offered
Total
for cash corporate
(princi- offerings
pal
amounts)
Corporate securities offered for cash
Type of corporate security
stock
Preferred
stock
Bonds
and
notes
939
397
372
1939....
1940....
1941....
1942....
1943....
1944....
1,128
1,238
956
524
435
661
2,164
2,677
2,667
1,062
1,170
3,202
1945....
1946....
1947....
1948....
1949....
795
1,157
2,324
2,690
2,907
6,011
6,900
6,577
7,078
6,052
1950....
1951....
1952....
1953....
1954....
3,532
3,189
4,401
5,558
6,969
5,977
5,446
6,958
7,449
7,681
7,230
8,360
8,558
10,107
10,544
11,148
11,089
14,288
16,374
11,460
6,362
7,741
9,534
8,898
9,516
10,240
10,939
12,884
11,558
9,748
87
108
110
34
56
163
397
891
779
614
736
811
1,212
1,369
1,326
1,213
2,185
2,301
2,516
1,334
2,027
1,979
10,154
13,165
10,705
12,211
13,957
14,782
17,385
24,014
21,261
25,997
1,664
3,294
1,314
1,011
2,679
1,473
1,901
1,927
3,885
7,640
17,762
24,370
22,941
22,953
22,824
37,451
43,229
39,705
31,680
37,820
7,037
9,485
10,707
7,642
4,050
29,326
33,845
45,060
46,215
42,261
47,133
46,134
49,231
53,632
53,314
54,229
48,212
53,093
78,896
72,503
54,587
7,414
8,305
8,047
7,937
8,706
9,159
13,361
9,882
13,732
12,770
17,627
18,834
1934....
1955....
1956....
1957....
1958....
1959....
1960....
1961....
1962....
1963....
1964....
1965....
1966....
1967....
1968....
1969....
1970....
1971....
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982; First 3
quarters
1981:
II...,
III...
IV...
1982:
II...
III..
Industry of corporate issuer
Manufacturing l
Electric,
gas, and
water 2
Transportation 3
Communication
21
758
1,127
762
492
425
2,386
2,389
917
990
2,670
4,855
4,882
5,036
5,973
4,890
67
604
992
848
539
510
1,061
2,026
3,701
2,742
2,226
1,414
2,319
2,158
3,257
2,187
2,320
176
186
324
366
48
161
609
1,454
711
286
755
800
631
838
564
489
816
4,920
5,691
7,601
7,083
7,488
1,200
3,122
4,039
2,254
2,268
2,649
2,455
2,675
3,029
3,713
813
494
992
595
778
635
636
411
571
531
7,420
8,002
9,957
9,653
7,190
2,994
3,647
4,234
3,515
2,073
2,464
2,529
3,938
3,804
3,258
893
724
824
824
967
409 8,081
450 9,420
422 8,969
343 10,856
412 10,865
724 12,585
580 14,904
881 21,206
636 16,740
691 17,666
1,390 29,023
3,683 30,061
3,371 25,628
3,341 20,700
2,273 31,497
2,152
4,077
3,249
3,514
3,046
2,851
3,032
2,825
2,677
2,760
718
694
567
957
982
902
571
399
612
760
882
720
1,132
1,419
1,462
1,424
717
1,050
1,834
1,303
1,105
2,189
5,414
7,056
11,069
6,958
6,346
2,934
3,666
4,935
5,293
6,715
702
1,494
1,639
1,564
1,779
945
2,003
1,975
1,775
2.172
10,647
11,651
6,398
4,832
10,511
11,009
11,721
11,314
10,269
12,836
5,291
5,840
4,836
4,872
3,932
42,759
42,206
42,266
37,443
40,857
18,652
15,496
13,757
11,062
11,563
15,893
14,418
13,704
12,253
13,736
56,265
45,606
24,398
17,395
15,940
14,495
36,097
9,847
13,127
1,253
1,148
860
811
1,005
3,637
4,649
3,218
2,696
3,297
3,727
2,779
1,310
183
167
112
124
369
133
1,271
1,203
1,357
472
477
1,422
Other
103
159
96
21
109
211
329
293
1,008
946
1,300
1,058
1,068
2,138
2,037
2,757
2,619
2,426
1,991
2,733
3,383
3,527
2,761
3,957
4,980
4,787
3,167
4,396
5,671
8,985
9,252
12,867
16,298
10,897
9,632
4,466 10,983
3,562 15,194
4,443 19,113
3,640 18,565
4,694 19,803
7,401 27,429
6,158 31,676
1,765 28,535
14,993
3,459
2,803
3,916
2,832
3,530
3,635
1,788
3,497
16,681
23,758
11,529
20,535
5,011
9,647
5,093
5,356
437
267
280
10,865
13,674
6,168
14,899
5,577
6,044
1,862
3,912
3,269
4,516
2,986
3,724
858
1,211
410
300
1,354
2,294
1,807
703
5,623
9,693
4,464
11,896
15,572
15,960
23,055
4,657
5,800
4,536
582
1,126
1,789
10,333
9,034
16,730
2,348
1,771
5,728
4,269
4,372
4,486
399
280
631
519
556
690
8,037
8,978
11,520
18,996
25,107
1
2
3
Prior to 1948, also includes extractive, radio broadcasting, airline companies, commercial, and miscellaneous company issues.
Prior to 1948, also includes telephone, street railway, and bus company issues.
Prior to 1948, includes railroad issues only.
Note.—Covers substantially all new issues of State, municipal, and corporate securities offered for cash sale in the United States in
amounts ovsr $100,000 and with terms to maturity of more than 1 year; excludes notes issued exclusively to commercial banks,
intercorporate transactions, and issues to be sold over an extended period, such as employee-purchase plans. Closed-end investment
company Issues are included beginning 1973.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission, "The Commercial and Financial Chronicle," and "The Bond Buyer."
266
TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices and yields, 1949-82
Common stock yields
(percent) 5
Common stock prices1
New York Stock Exchange indexes (De ;. 31, 1965 = 50) 8
Year or month
Composite
Industrial
Transportation
Utility
Finance
Dow
Jones
industrial
average3
Standard
& Poor's
composite
index
(194143=10)4
Dividendprice
ratio 6
Earningsprice
ratio 7
9 02
179.48
15.23
6.59
15,48
..
10 87
13.08
13.81
13.67
16.19
21.54
24.40
23.67
24 56
30.73
216.31
257.64
270.76
275 97
333.94
442.72
493.01
475.71
491.66
632.12
18.40
22.34
24.50
24.73
29.69
40.49
46.62
44.38
46.24
57.38
6.57
6.13
5.80
5.80
4.95
4.08
4.09
4.35
3.97
3.23
13 99
11.82
9.47
10.26
8,57
7.95
7.55
7.89
6.23
5,78
1960
1961 ..
1962
1963
1964
1965 ..
1966
1967
1968 ..
1969
3001
35.37
33 49
37 51
43 76
47.39
46.15
50.77
55.37
54.67
46.18
51.97
58.00
57.44
50.26
53.51
50.58
46.96
45.41
45.43
44.19
42.80
44.45
49.82
65.85
70.49
618.04
691.55
639.76
714.81
834.05
910.88
873.60
879.12
906.00
876.72
55.85
66.27
62.38
69.87
81.37
88.17
85.26
91.93
98.70
97.84
3.47
2.98
3.37
3.17
3.01
3.00
3.40
3.20
3.07
3.24
5.90
4.62
5.82
5.50
5.32
5.59
6.63
5.73
5.67
.6.08
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
..
45.72
54.22
60 29
57.42
43.84
45.73
54.46
53.69
53.70
58.32
48.03
57.92
65.73
63.08
48.08
50.52
60.44
57.86
58.23
64.76
32.14
44.35
5017
37.74
31.89
31.10
39.57
4109
43.50
47.34
37.24
39.53
38.48
37.69
29.79
31.50
36,97
40 92
39.22
38.20
60.00
70.38
78.35
70.12
49.67
47.14
52.94
55.25
56.65
61.42
753.19
884.76
950 71
923.88
759.37
802.49
974.92
894.63
820.23
844.40
83.22
98.29
109.20
107.43
82.85
86.16
102.01
98.20
96.02
103.01
3.83
3.14
2.84
3.06
4.47
4.31
3.77
4.62
5.28
5.47
6.45
5.41
5.50
7.12
11.59
9.15
8.90
10.79
12.03
13.46
1980 ..
1981
1982
6810
74.02
68.93
78.70
85.44
78.18
60 61
72.61
60.41
37 35
38.91
39.75
64.25
73.52
71.99
89141
932.92
884.36
118.78
128.05
119.71
5.26
5.20
5.81
12.66
11.96
89.23
85.74
89.39
90.57
88.78
88.63
74 43
72.76
77.09
80.63
76.78
76.71
38 53
37.59
37.82
38.34
38.27
39.23
70.04
68.48
72.82
74.59
74.65
79.79
962.13
945.50
987.18
1,004.86
979.52
996.27
132.97
128.40
133.19
134.43
131.73
132.28
4.80
5.00
4.88
4.86
4.98
5.03
10.72
Apr..
May
June
7624
73.52
76.46
77.60
76.28
76.80
July
Aug..
Sept.
Oct
Nov
Dec
74.98 <
75.24
68.37
69 40
7149
71.81
86.64
86.72
78.07
78 93
80 86
81.70
74.42
73.27
63 67
65 65
67 68
68.27
38.90
40.22
38.17
38 87
40 73
40.22
74.97
73.76
69.38
72.56
76 47
74.74
947.94
926.25
853.38
853 25
860 44
878.28
129.13
129.63
118.27
119.80
122.92
123.79
5.18
5.16
5.69
5.65
5.54
5.57
13.13
3»
76.85
74 78
71.51
75.59
75.97
71.59
62 04
59 09
55.19
57.91
56.84
53.07
39 30
38 32
38.57
39.20
39.40
37.34
70.99
70 50
69.08
71.44
69.16
63.19
853 41
83315
812.33
844.96
846.72
804.37
117.28
114 50
110.84
116.31
116.35
109.70
5.95
6.06
6.28
5.99
5.97
6.28
13.23
June:::::::;:::::::::::::::.:::::::
67 91
6616
63.86
66.97
67.07
63.10
July..
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
62 82
62 91
70 21
76.10
79.75
80.30
71.37
70 98
80 08
86.67
90.76
92.00
53 40
53 98
6139
66.64
71.92
73.40
37 20
3819
40 36
42.67
43.46
42.93
61.59
62 84
69 66
80.59
88.66
86.22
818 41
83211
917 27
988.71
1,027.76
1,033.08
109.38
109 65
122 43
132.66
138.10
139.37
6.31
6.32
5 63
5.12
4.92
4.93
1949 ..
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
..
..
..
..
.
..
. .
1981:
Jan..
Feb
Mr
a
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Aor
1
2
3
4
5
6
11.44
12.53
12.93
Averages of daily closing prices, except New York Stock Exchange data through May 1964 are averages of weekly closing prices.
Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Includes 30 stocks.
Includes 500 stocks.
Standard & Poor's series, based on 500 stocks in the composite index.
Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by aggregate market value based on Wednesday closing
prices. Monthly data are averages of weekly figures; annual data are averages of monthly figures.
7
Quarterly data are ratio of earnings (after taxes) for 4 quarters ending with particular quarter to price index for last day of that
quarter. Annual ratios are averages of quarterly ratios.
Note.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Co., Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
267
TABLE B-93.—Business formation and business failures, 1929-82
Business failures 1
Year or month
Index
of net
business
formation
(1967=
100)
business
incorporations
(number)
1980...
1981...
Liability size class
Total
Under
$100,000
$100,000
and over
22,909
19,859
14,768
13,619
11,848
9,405
3,221
1,222
809
1,129
3,474
5,250
9,246
22,165
744
979
227
9,162
8,058
7,611
8,862
11,086
10,969
12,686
13,739
14,964
14,053
8,746
7,626
7,081
8,075
10,226
10,113
11,615
12,547
L3.499
12,707
15,445
17,075
15,782
14,374
13,501
13,514
13,061
12,364
9,636
9,154
Liability size class
Total
Under
$100,000
$100,000
and over
483.3
457.5
182.5
261.5
215.5
132.9
221.8
242.0
49.7
166.7
136.1
100.8
45.3
31.7
30.2
67.3
204.6
234.6
46.8
35.4
20.5
15.1
17.1
18.8
51.6
140.9
308.1
119.9
10O.7
80.3
30.2
14.5
11.4
15.7
63.7
93.9
161.4
1,071
1,192
1,465
1,346
248.3
259.5
283.3
394.2
462.6
449.4
562.7
615.3
728.3
692.8
151.2
131.6
131.9
167.5
211.4
206.4
239.8
267.1
297.6
278.9
97.1
128.0
151.4
226.6
251.2
243.0
322.9
348.2
430.7
413.9
13,650
L5.006
13,772
12,192
11,346
L1.340
10,833
10,144
7,829
7,192
1,795
2,069
2,010
2,182
2,155
2,174
2,228
2,220
1,807
1,962
938.6
1,090.1
1,213.6
1,352.6
1,329.2
1,321.7
1,385.7
1,265.2
941.0
1,142.1
327.2
370.1
346.5
321.0
313.6
321.7
321.5
297.9
241.1
231.3
611.4
720.0
867.1
1,031.6
1,015.6
1,000.0
1,064.1
967.3
699.9
910.8
104.8
86.4
90.8
90.1
94.5
92.4
90.8
98.2
95.4
91.4
91.1
98.1
94.5
91.1
92.8
94.7
98.0
99.5
98.9
100.0
107.6
113.5
132,916
112,897
96,346
85,640
93,092
83,778
92,946
102,706
117,411
139,915
141,163
137,112
150,781
193,067
182,713
181,535
182,057
186,404
197,724
203,897
200,010
206,569
233,635
274,267
103.9
100.3
69.6
63.0
54.4
44.6
16.4
6.5
4.2
5.2
14.3
20.4
34.4
34.3
30.7
28.7
33.2
42.0
41.6
48.0
51.7
55.9
51.8
57.0
64.4
60.8
56.3
53.2
53.3
51.6
49.0
38.6
37.3
107.1
109.5
115.5
115.5
111.2
108.8
117.2
126.5
132.9
131.7
264,209
287,577
316,601
329,358
319,149
326,345
375,766
436,170
478,019
524,565
43.8
41.7
38.3
36.4
38.4
42.6
34.8
28.4
23.9
27.8
10,748
10,326
9,566
9,345
9,915
11,432
9,628
7,919
6,619
7,564
8,019
7,611
7,040
6,627
6,733
7,504
6,176
4,861
3,712
3,930
2,729
2,715
2,526
2,718
3,182
3,928
3,452
3,058
2,907
3,634
1,887.8
1,916.9
2,000.2
2,298.6
3,053.1
4,380.2
3,011.3
3,095.3
2,656.0
2,667.4
269.3
271.3
258.8
235.6
256.9
298.6
257.8
208.3
164.7
179.9
1,618.4
1,645.6
1,741.5
2,063.0
2,796.3
4,081.6
2,753.4
2,887.0
2,491.3
2,487.5
121.1
113.5
533,520
581,242
42.1
61.3
11,742
16,794
5,682
8,233
6,060
8,561
4,635.1
6,955.2
272.5
405.8
4,362.6
6,549.3
1929s
1933
1939"
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975...
1976
1977
1978
1979
Amount of current liabilities
(millions of dollars)
Number of failures
Business
failure
rate 2
14,541
13,400
11,685
9,282
3,155
1,176
759
1,003
3,103
4,853
8,708
219
163
123
66
46
50
126
371
397
538
416
432
530
787
856
140.7
146.7
Seasonally adjusted
1981:
Jan..,
Feb..
Mar..,
&
118.1
117.1
117.7
118.0
115.4
114.6
46,039
48,588
47,972
49,413
48,997
49,172
48.6
47.8
47.6
61.8
62.0
60.8
1,109
1,133
1,212
1,557
1,464
1,408
559
546
572
736
730
711
550
587
640
821
734
697
341.4
789.2
485.3
536.9
428.2
408.5
27.6
25.7
28.0
44.8
35.1
32.3
313.8
763.5
457.3
492.1
393.1
376.3
July..,
Aug..,
Sept,
Oct...
Nov...
Dec,
113.1
113.6
111.5
107.6
108.8
106.2
49,038
48,631
48,450
47,947
49,413
47,556
65.9
53.3
87.0
69.4
65.7
72.2
1,432
1,172
1,777
1,604
1,368
1,558
739
576
879
768
655
762
596
898
836
713
796
619.5
450.4
752.3
897.9
618.8
626.7
37.7
27.5
42.6
36.7
30.7
37.2
581.8
422.9
709.7
861.2
588.1
589.5
1982: <
Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
fc
43,330
47,234
46,899
46,876
46,995
45,936
June.
44,525
46,981
July...
45,552
Aug...
Sept.
1
Commercial and industrial failures only. Excludes failures of banks and railroads and, beginning 1933, of real estate, insurance,
holding, and financial companies, steamship lines, travel agencies, etc.
2
Failure rate per 10,000 listed enterprises.
3
Series revised; not strictly comparable with earlier data.
4
Not available.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
8
268
8
8
AGRICULTURE
T A B L E B-94.—Farm income, 1929-82
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from arming
Gross farm income
Year or quarter
Net farm income
Cash marketing receipts
Total1
Total
Livestock
and
products
Crops
Value of
inventory
changes"
Production
expenses
Current
dollars
1967
dollars3
1929
1933
1939
13.8
6.9
10.7
11.3
5.3
7.9
6.2
2.8
4.5
5.1
2.5
3.3
-0.1
-.2
.1
7.7
4.4
6.3
6.2
2.6
4.4
12.0
6.6
10.6
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
11.3
14.3
19 9
23 3
24.0
25.4
29.6
32 4
36 5
30.8
8.4
11.1
15.6
19.6
20.5
21.7
24.8
29.6
30.2
27.8
4.9
6.5
9.0
11.5
11.4
12.0
13.8
16.5
17.1
15.4
3.5
4.6
65
9.2
9.7
11.0
131
131
12.4
.3
.4
1.1
-.1
-.4
-.4
.0
-1.8
6.9
7.8
10.0
11.6
12.3
13.1
14.5
17 0
18.8
18.0
4.5
6.5
99
11.7
11.7
12.3
15.1
15 4
17.7
12,8
10.7
14.7
20 2
22 7
22.2
22.8
25.8
23 0
24 5
17.9
33.1
38.3
37.8
34 4
34.2
33.5
34.0
34 8
39 0
37.9
28.5
32.9
32.5
31.0
29.8
29.5
30.4
29.7
33.5
33.6
16.1
19.6
18.2
16.9
16.3
16.0
16.4
17.4
19.2
18.9
12.4
13.2
14.3
14.1
13.6
13.5
14.0
12 3
14.2
14.7
.8
1.2
.9
-.6
19.5
22.3
22.8
21.5
21.8
22.2
22.7
23.7
25.8
27.2
13.6
15.9
15.0
13.0
12.4
11.3
11.3
11.1
13.2
10.7
18.9
20.5
18.8
16.2
15.4
14.1
13.8
13.1
15.2
12.3
38 9
40 5
42.3
43.4
42.3
46.5
50 5
50 5
51.8
56,4
34.2
35.2
36.5
37.5
37.3
39.4
43.4
42.8
44.2
48,2
19.0
19.5
20.2
20.0
19.9
21.9
25.0
24.4
25.5
28.6
153
.4
11.5
12.0
12.1
11.8
10.5
12.9
14.0
12.3
12.3
14.3
13 0
13 3
13.3
12.8
11.3
13.7
14.4
12.3
11.8
13.0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
58.7
62 0
71.0
98.8
98.0
1010
101.9
108.6
127 3
151.3
50.5
52.7
61.1
86.9
92.4
88.9
95.4
96.2
112.5
131.7
1980 . ...
1981
1982"
150 6
166.8
163.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
....
8.1
1.7
-.9
.5
.2
~.s
.8
.0
157
.3
16.3
17.4
17.4
17.5
18 4
18.4
18.7
19.6
.6
.6
-.8
1.0
-.1
.1
.1
27.4
28.6
30.3
31.6
31.8
33.7
36.5
38.2
39.5
42.1
29.5
30.5
35.6
45.8
41.3
43.1
46.3
47.6
58.8
68.6
21.0
22 3
25.5
41.1
51.1
45 8
49.0
48.6
53 7
63.1
.0
1.4
.9
3.4
-1.6
3.4
-2.4
1.0
1.1
5.6
44,4
47.2
52.1
65.4
72.0
75.8
83.3
90.2
100.6
119.0
14.2
14.8
18.9
33.4
26.0
25.2
18.7
18.4
26.7
32.4
12.2
12.2
15.1
25.1
17.6
15.6
11.0
10.2
13.6
14.9
139.5
143.5
142.9
67.8
68.5
69.0
717
75.0
73.9
-4.3
5.5
-.2
130.5
141.6
144.2
20.1
25.1
19.5
8.2
9.2
6.7
135.3
134.3
143.6
144.8
66.7
64.4
69.3
70.8
68.6
69 9
74 3
74.0
-1.4
-4.2
-6.0
-5.6
125.7
128.7
132.0
135.4
22.9
16.5
21.2
20.0
9.5
6.8
IV
148.6
145 2
153 2
155.4
1981.
1
II
Ill
IV
161.8
164 7
1715
168.8
142.5
142.3
146 7
142.5
67.9
69.4
71.0
65.7
74.6
72 9
75 7
76.8
2.5
5.3
7.2
7.0
139.0
141.0
143.2
143.2
22.8
23.7
28.3
25.6
8.6
8.8
10.2
9.1
162.0
163 0
161.6
168.1
143.4
144.4
143.2
140.6
67.4
70.1
70.4
68.1
76.0
74 3
72.8
72.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
143.7
144.2
144.3
144.6
18.3
18.8
17.3
23.5
6.5
6.6
5.9
8.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967..
1968
1969
1980:
1
||
Ill
1982:
|
||
...
H
I
IV
.7
8.5
7.8
J
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income
furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-period inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the period.
3
Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor).
Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.
269
TABLE B-95.—Farm output and productivity indexes, 1929-82
[1977 = 100]
Productivity indicators
Farm output
Crops 2
Year
Total *
Total8
Feed
grains
Farm output per hour of
r«.m
Food
grains
Oil
crops
Livestock
and
products*
rarm
output
per
unit of
total
Input
Crop
production
per
acre*
Id 111) WVIP
Total
Crops
Livestock
and
products
1929...
44
48
38
39
6
50
45
48
9
10
14
1933...
42
43
35
27
5
54
45.
43
9
10
13
1939...
48
49
40
36
14
56
50
51
1
1
12
14
1940...
1941...,
1942....
1943...,
1944...,
50
52
58
5
7
41
44
51
47
49
40
45
48
41
57
60
67
72
69
52
53
58
56
57
53
54
59
55
58
13
14
15
14
15
16
1
5
1945...,
1946...,
1947....
1948....
1949....
58
60
58
63
62
56
59
56
64
61
4
7
5
1
5
3
16
16
23
23
20
12
1
3
59
51
52
58
55
58
51
39
57
50
55
64
62
53
20
19
22
27
26
68
66
65
64
67
58
60
58
63
60
57
60
5
7
16
16
18
19
16
18
18
20
20
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
7
1
7
1950....
1951....
1952....
1953....
1954....
61
63
66
66
66
59
60
62
62
61
5
1
49
49
63
26
26
26
26
28
70
73
74
74
77
60
61
63
64
64
59
59
62
19
20
2
2
2
2
2
4
1955....
1956....
1957....
1958....
1959....
69
69
67
73
74
63
63
79
79
78
79
83
67
68
63
64
65
73
72
I960....
1961..,.
1962....
1963....
1964....
47
50
49
51
5
7
5
1
69
68
54
54
58
64
66
55
30
34
33
39
36
76
76
77
80
79
72
70
71
74
72
69
62
62
68
59
66
60
56
59
65
38
43
44
46
46
82
86
86
89
91
78
79
82
81
1965....
1966....
1967....
1968....
1969....
82
79
83
85
85
76
73
7
7
7
9
80
70
70
79
75
78
67
67
76
80
74
53
55
56
64
65
89
91
94
94
95
1970....
1971....
1972....
1973....
1974....
84
92
91
93
88
77
86
87
92
84
71
92
88
91
69
81
7
4
7
7
8
6
9
1
66
68
74
87
71
1975...
1976....
1977....
1978....
1979....
100
104
111
93
92
100
102
113
91
96
100
108
116
108
107
100
93
108
101
116
120
97
121
124
121
143
140
1980....
1981....
1982",.
103
15
1
117
62
48
50
47
69
64
60
62
61
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
5
2
2
2
3
24
16
25
26
18
18
1
9
20
2
1
2
2
2
3
2
4
2
5
2
6
33
35
2
9
28
30
33
38
37
28
31
77
78
81
83
81
37
39
41
45
47
41
42
45
47
49
37
40
43
85
83
85
87
88
85
83
86
89
91
52
53
58
62
63
56
59
63
66
68
45
49
53
55
59
99
100
101
99
100
87
94
94
95
90
88
9€
99
99
88
66
74
7
8
81
79
70
79
84
87
80
64
68
73
76
82
86
74
100
105
129
95
99
100
101
104
99
97
100
102
106
96
94
100
105
113
89
94
100
109
119
89
91
100
105
118
85
93
100
109
118
99
114
103
106
108
107
100
112
114
99
113
118
112
129
11
3
104
121
126
129
138
137
68
7
4
74
7
7
26
28
32
3
5
1
Farm output measures the annual volume of net farm production available for eventual human use through sales from farms or
consumption in farm households.
1
Gross production.
3
Includes items not included in groups shown.
* Computed from variable weights for individual crops produced each year.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
270
TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selected inputs, 1929-82
Farm population
April 1
Year
Number
(thousands)
Farm employment
(thousands) 3
As
percent
of
total
popu-2
lation
Total
Family
workers
Hired
workers
Selected indexes of input use (1977=100)
Crops
harvested
(millions of
acres)*
Total
Farm
labor
Feed,
Meseed,
Farm chanical cultural
and
power
real
liveand
8
estate machin- chemistock
cals
purery
chases8
1929..
30,580
25.1
12,763
9,360
3,403
365
100
469
106
28
1933..
32,393
25.8
12,739
9,874
2,865
340
94
457
99
26
1939..
30,840
23.5
11,338
8,611
2,727
331
96
419
104
37
1940....
1941..,.
1942
1943....
1944
30,547
30,118
28,914
26,186
24,815
23.1
22.6
21.4
19.2
17.9
10,979
10,669
10,504
10,446
10,219
8,300
8,017
7,949
8,010
7,988
2,679
2,652
2,555
2,436
2,231
341
344
348
357
362
97
98
101
102
103
417
411
421
416
412
106
104
102
101
100
9
10
11
13
39
42
44
48
48
1945....
1946....
1947....
1948....
1949....
24,420
25,403
25,829
24,383
24,194
17.5
18.0
17.9
16.6
16.2
10,000
10,295
10,382
10,363
9,964
7,881
8,106
8,115
8,026
7,712
2,119
2,189
2,267
2,337
2,252
354
352
355
356
360
101
99
99
100
103
386
371
351
342
329
101
105
105
106
107
13
14
15
16
18
50
49
51
52
56
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
23,048
21,890
21,748
19,874
19,019
15.2
14.2
13.9
12.5
11.7
9,926
9,546
9,149
8,864
8,651
7,597
7,310
7,005
6,775
6,570
2,329
2,236
2,144
2,089
2,081
345
344
349
348
346
102
105
105
104
103
310
310
296
285
274
108
108
107
107
107
19
21
23
24
24
58
62
63
63
65
1955....
1956....
1957
1958
1959
19,078
18,712
17,656
17,128
16,592
11.5
11.1
10.3
9.8
9.3
8,381
7,852
7,600
7,503
7,342
6,345
5,900
5,660
5,521
5,390
2,036
1,952
1,940
1,982
1,952
340
324
324
324
324
103
101
99
98
100
264
249
231
222
216
107
105
104
103
104
26
27
27
28
32
66
69
68
73
77
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
15,635
14,803
14,313
13,367
12,954
8.7
8.1
7.7
7.1
6.7
7,057
6,919
6,700
6,518
6,110
5,172
5,029
4,873
4,738
4,506
1,885
1,890
1,827
1,780
1,604
324
302
295
298
298
98
98
98
98
98
207
198
189
183
174
102
102
103
103
103
32
35
38
43
46
77
81
83
83
85
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
12,363
11,595
10,875
10,454
10,307
6.4
5.9
5.5
5.2
5.1
5,610
5,214
4,903
4,749
4,596
4,128
3,854
3,650
3.535
3,419
1,482
1,360
1,253
1,213
1,176
298
294
306
300
290
96
96
98
98
97
156
147
143
138
133
102
101
103
102
101
82
86
87
86
49
56
66
69
73
86
89
92
89
93
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
9,712
9,425
9,610
9,472
9,264
4.7
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.3
4f523
4,436
4,373
4,337
4,389
3,348
3,275
3,228
3,169
3,075
1,175
1,161
1,146
1,168
1,314
293
305
294
321
328
97
98
98
98
98
126
123
117
115
112
104
102
101
100
98
86
87
87
90
93
75
81
86
90
92
96
102
104
107
99
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
8,864
8,253
'6,194
6.501
6,241
4.1
3.8
'2.8
4,342
4,374
4,155
3,957
3,774
3,026
2,997
2,859
2,689
2,501
1,317
1,377
1,296
1,268
1,273
336
337
345
338
349
97
99
100
101
104
107
103
100
95
93
97
98
100
100
100
96
98
100
104
107
83
96
100
107
118
93
101
100
104
111
1980
1981
1982 ".
..
'6,051
'5,790
3,705
3,816
3,700
2,402
2,456
2,405
1,303
1,360
1,295
352
366
365
103
103
92
90
101
101
105
105
120
123
108
106
'2.9
7
2.8
'2.7
'2.5
8
'Farm population as defined by Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce, i.e., civilian population living on farms in
rural areas, regardless of occupation. See also footnote 7.
2
Total population of United States including Armed Forces overseas, as of July 1.
3
Includes persons doing farmwork on all farms. These data, published by the Department of Agriculture, differ from those on
agricultural employment by the Department of Labor (see Table B-31) because of differences in the method of approach, in concepts of
employment, and in time of month for which the data are collected.
4
Acreage harvested plus acreages in fruits, tree nuts, and farm gardens.
5
Fertilizer, lime, and pesticides.
s
Nonfarm constant dollar value of feed, seed, and livestock purchases.
'Based on new definition of a farm. Under old definition of a farm, farm population (in thousands and as percent of total
population) for 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980 and 1981 is 7,806 and 3.5; 8,005 and 3.6; 7,553 and 3.4; 7,241 and 3.2; and 6,942 and 3.0,
respectively.
8
Previous basis for farm employment series has been discontinued. Employment after 1980 is estimated.
Note.—Population includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1960.
Sources.- Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census).
271
TABLE B-97.—Indexes ofprices received and prices paid by farmers, 1940-82
[1977-100]
Prices paid by farmers
Prices received by farmers
Year or month
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982"
1981:
Jan
Fb
e
All
farm
products
Apr
May......:..:::::::::::::::::
June
July
Aug
,
Sept
oct
Nov
I.::..:::::::::::::::;.
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
|£y
June::::::::
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec*
::::::::
::::::::
Total2
Tractors
and
selfpropelled
machinery
Fertilizer
Fuels
and
energy
Wage
rates
37
37
41
44
44
45
45
50
55
56
54
57
59
59
59
58
7
8
10
14
17
19
20
22
23
22
22
25
26
27
5
7
49
49
50
50
51
52
53
54
57
79
88
93
100
105
137
188
213
211
28
29
30
32
33
33
34
35
36
38
41
44
48
53
57
59
63
69
79
85
93
100
107
117
127
136
136
136
136
145
145
147
147
147
147
147
144
144
143
201
212
216
217
216
215
214
214
214
214
214
214
140
140
140
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
143
143
147
147
146
146
146
146
146
11
4
11
4
139
217
215
207
200
202
212
214
213
213
212
213
209
136
136
136
136
136
136
136
136
136
136
136
136
50
51
55
53
52
53
53
53
52
54
58
55
56
59
60
62
69
98
105
101
102
100
115
132
134
138
133
23
29
36
41
41
44
50
60
65
56
58
70
64
56
52
49
47
51
57
53
53
52
53
51
49
54
60
57
60
67
67
67
77
104
94
98
101
100
124
147
144
143
144
18
19
22
25
26
28
30
35
38
36
37
41
42
40
40
40
40
42
43
43
44
44
45
45
45
47
49
49
51
53
55
58
62
71
81
89
95
100
108
123
138
150
155
21
22
26
28
30
30
33
39
43
41
42
47
47
44
44
43
43
44
46
46
46
46
47
47
47
48
50
50
50
52
54
57
61
73
83
91
97
100
108
125
138
148
150
39
40
42
44
47
49
51
54
58
68
82
91
100
109
122
136
152
165
56
55
52
48
48
50
52
56
92
120
102
100
100
108
134
144
144
145
144
143
143
142
142
142
138
133
130
130
128
144
144
145
143
142
138
138
130
120
120
121
122
146
145
141
144
143
147
147
146
145
140
138
133
147
148
149
150
150
150
150
151
151
150
150
150
146
146
147
149
149
150
148
148
148
147
147
145
142
142
146
146
146
155
155
155
159
159
159
159
132
133
133
135
139
137
136
133
136
128
129
127
126
123
120
123
125
125
124
119
125
114
118
116
137
142
145
147
151
149
148
147
146
142
140
138
153
153
154
154
155
156
156
156
156
155
156
155
148
148
150
150
150
151
151
151
150
149
149
149
159
159
161
161
161
167
167
167
168
168
168
168
5
1
Mr
a
Livestock
and
products
Production items
21
25
34
43
46
47
53
61
59
52
54
61
62
55
56
53
54
52
52
51
51
52
54
55
55
53
55
52
52
50
52
56
60
91
117
105
102
100
105
116
125
134
122
22
27
35
42
43
45
52
60
63
55
56
66
63
56
54
. .
. .
Crops
All
commodities,
services,
interest,
taxes,
and
wage
ratesl
27
27
58
58
57
57
58
58
57
57
5
7
Addendum:
Average
farm
real
estate
value
per
acre3
7
7
7
8
9
10
1
1
1
3
14
14
14
16
18
18
18
19
19
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
29
31
33
35
38
40
42
43
47
53
66
75
86
100
109
125
145
158
157
158
157
1
Includes items used for family living, not shown separately.
* Includes other items not shown separately.
Average for 48 States. Annual data are for March 1 of each year through 1975, for February 1 for 1976 through 1981, and for April 1,
for 1982. Monthly data are for first of month.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
3
272
TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and imports of agricultural commodities, 1940-82
[Billions of dollars]
mports
Exports
Year
Total»
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
0.5
.7
1.2
2.1
2.1
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
2.3
3.1
4.0
3.5
3.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
Feed
Food
grains grains 2
29
4.0
34
2.8
3.1
. .
Oilseeds
and
products
t*
(*
4
4
(
4
4
4
.1
.3
2
.3
'l
.4
.7
1.4
1.5
1.1
6
1.1
11
.3
'.5
(
Cotton
Tobacco
0.2
.1
4
n
.2
.2
Animals
and
products
Crops,
fruits,
Total *
and
vegetabfes3
Coffee
0.2
.3
0.1
.3
.8
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.7
23
2.8
3.1
2.9
.1
.2
(4
Animals
and
products
I
0.1
.2
A
!3
.3
Cocoa
beans
and
products
4
4
4
4
4
.4
.4
.4
.6
.4
.3
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
.2
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.1
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
!9
'.3
.9
.9
.7
,5
.4
.3
.3
2
1.0
1.1
9
2
.3
.2
.3
[B
.3
A
.5
4.0
5.2
4.5
4.2
4.0
.2
.7
1.1
J
.6
.5
.5
.4
.3
.4
.4
.3
.6
.7
.7
.5
.6
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.1
.2
.2
.5
.4
'.2
7
.8
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.6
.6
.6
3.8
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.1
1
.6
.2
.3
.9
.9
.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
.3
.4
.4
.5
.5
.9
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.2
.9
.1
.1
.2
^4
.2
.4
.3
.3
.2
.3
2
.1
'.2
,2
'6
'.&
Ki
.1
'.3
Agricultura
trade
balance
-0.8
-10
-.1
6
.3
.5
.8
1.2
.3
7
-11
-1.1
-11
-1.3
-.9
.4
.5
.5
.6
.6
1.0
1.0
.8
.9
.6
.7
.4
4.8
50
5.0
5.6
6.3
.5
5
.8
.8
.9
1.2
14
1.3
1.5
1.7
.6
.6
1.0
.9
'.B
1.0
'.B
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
6.2
6.9
6.4
6.3
6.0
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.2 .
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
.5
.4
.5
.5
.3
.4
.5
.5
.5
.6
.8
7
.7
.8
4.1
4.5
4.5
5.0
5.0
1970
1971
1972.
1973
1974
73
7.7
94
17.7
21.9
11
1.0
15
3.5
4.6
14
1.3
1.8
4.7
5.4
19
2.2
2.4
4.3
5.7
4
.6
.5
.9
1.3
.5
9
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.8
5.8
5.8
6.5
8.4
10.2
.5
.6
.7
.8
.8
1.6
1.5
1.8
2.6
2.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.7
1.6
.3
.2
.2
.3
15
1.9
29
9.3
117
21.9
23 0
23.6
29.4
34.7
5.2
60
4.9
5.9
7.7
6.2
47
3.6
5.5
6.3
4.5
51
6.6
8.2
8.9
1.0
10
1.5
1.7
2.2
.9
9
1.1
1.2
1.7
24
2.7
3.0
3.8
9.3
110
13.4
14.8
16.7
.8
.9
1.2
1.5
1.7
1.8
2.3
2.3
3.1
3.9
1.7
2.9
4.2
4.0
4.2
.5
.6
1.0
1.4
1.2
12.6
12 0
10.2
14.6
18.0
1980
1981
41.2
43.3
9.8
9.4
7.9
9.6
9.4
9.6
2.9
2.3
1.3
1.5
3.8
4.2
17.4
16.8
1.7
2.0
3.8
3.5
4.2
2.9
.9
.9
23.9
26.6
Jan-Nov:
1981
1982.
39.7
33.7
8.7
5.9
8.9
7.4
8.7
8.3
2.0
1.8
1.3
1.4
3.9
3.6
15.4
14.0
1.9
2.2
3.2
3.3
2.6
2.6
.9
24.3
19.7
3.2
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960..
1961
1962
1963
1964
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
..
_
.3
.4
.3
.9
.9
1
Total includes items not shown
2
Rice, wheat, and wheat flour.
3
l.Q
7
.7
.8
1.4
'.B
.2
-.8
.2
.6
(4)
-1
.2
2
1.0
13
1.2
1.6
2.3
2.1
2.4
1.9
1.3
1.1
separately.
Includes nuts, fruits, and vegetable preparations.
Hess than $50 million.
Note.—Data derived from official estimates released by the Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce. Agricultural commodities
are defined as (1) nonmarine food products and (2) other products of agriculture which have not passed through complex processes of
manufacture. Export value, at U.S. port of exportation, is based on the selling price and includes inland freight, insurance, and other
charges to the port. Import value, defined generally as the market value in the foreign country, excludes import duties, ocean freight,
and marine insurance.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
273
TABLE B-99.—Balance sheet of the farming sector, 1929-83
[Billions of dollars]
Claims
Assets
Other physical assets
Beginning of
year
Total
Household DeposInvestLive- MachinReal
U.S.
its
estate stock » ery and Cropss equipment
and savings ments in
motor
and
cur- bonds cooperatives
vehicles
furnish- rency
ings
48.0
1929...
Financial assets
66
.
Total
Real
estate
debt
Other
debt
Proprietors'
equities
98
.
32
.
1933...
30.8
8.5
1939...
34.1
6.8
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
53.0
54.8
62.9
73.6
84.0
33.6
34.4
37.5
41.6
48.2
5.1
5.3
7.1
9.6
9.7
3.1
3.3
4.0
4.9
5.4
2.7
3.0
3.8
5.1
6.1
4.2
4.1
4.8
4.8
4.7
3.2
3.5
4.2
5.4
6.6
0.2
.4
.5
1.1
2.2
0.8
.9
.9
1.0
1.1
53.0
54.8
62.9
73.6
84.0
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.0
5.4
3.4
4.0
4.1
3.9
3.5
43.0
44.3
52.5
63.8
75.1
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
93.8
102.9
115.9
127.4
134.6
53.9
61.0
68.5
73.7
76.6
9.0
9.7
11.9
13.3
14.4
6.5
5.4
5,3
7.4
10.1
6.7
6.3
7.1
9.0
8.6
5.2
5.6
7.2
8.1
8.9
7.9
9.4
10.2
9.9
9.6
3.4
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.6
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.9
93.8
102.9
115.9
127.4
134.6
4.9
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
3.4
3.1
3.5
4.1
6.1
85.4
95.0
107.5
118.1
123.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
134.5
154.3
170.1
167.6
164.5
77.6
89.5
98.5
100.1
98.7
12.9
17.1
19.5
14.8
11.7
12.2
14.1
16.7
17.4
18.4
7.6
7.9
8.8
9.0
9.1
8.4
9.6
10.1
9.6
9.5
9.1
9.1
9.4
9.4
9.4
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.7
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
134.5
154.3
170.1
167.6
164.5
5.6
6.1
6.7
7.2
7.7
6.9
7.0
7.9
8.9
9.2
122.1
141.3
155.5
151.5
147.6
1955..,.
1956
1957
1958
1959....
168.9
173.6
182.8
191.3
207.6
102.2
107.5
115.7
121.8
131.1
11.2
10.6
11.0
13.9
17.7
18.7
19.3
20.2
20.1
21.8
9.6
8.3
8.3
7.6
9.3
9.7
10.0
9.6
9.6
9.4
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.5
10.0
5.0
5.2
5.1
5,1
5.2
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.9
168.9
173.6
182.8
191.3
207.6
8.2
9.0
9.8
10.4
11.1
9.5
9.8
9.5
10.0
12.6
151.2
154.9
163.4
170.8
183.9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
210.2
210.9
219.3
227.6
235.8
137.2
138.5
144.5
150.2
158.6
15.2
15.6
16.4
17.3
15.9
22.7
22.2
22.5
23.5
23.9
7.7
8:0
8.8
9.3
9.8
9.2
8.7
8.9
8.8
8.8
9.2
8.7
8.8
9.2
9.2
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.4
210.2
210.9
219.3
227.6
235.8
12.0
12.8
13.9
15.2
16.8
12.7
13.4
14.6
16.2
17.6
185.4
184.7
190.9
196.2
201.4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
243.8
260.8
274.3
288.0
302.8
167.5
179.2
189.1
199.7
209.2
14.5
17.6
19.0
18.8
20.2
24.8
26.0
27.4
29.8
31.3
9.2
9.7
10.0
9.6
10.6
8.4
8.4
8.3
8.8
9.4
9.6
10.0
10.3
10.9
11.5
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.8
5.6
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.8
243.8
260.8
274.3
288.0
302.8
18.9
21.2
23.1
25.1
27.4
17.9
19.5
20.9
22.3
23.1
207.0
220.1
230.2
240.6
252.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
314.9
326.0
351.8
394.8
478.6
215.8
223.2
239.6
267.3
327.8
23.5
23.7
27.3
34.1
42.4
32.3
34.4
36.6
39.3
44.2
10.9
10.7
11.8
14.5
22.0
9.6
10.0
10.8
11.9
12.3
11.9
12.4
13.2
14.0
14.9
3.7
3.6
3.7
4.0
4.1
7.2
8.0
10.9
314.9
326.0
351.8
394.8
478.6
29.2
30.3
32,2
35.1
39.5
23.8
24.1
27.4
29.8
33.8
261.9
271.5
292.2
329.9
405.3
1975 3
1976
1977
1978 .
.
1979
502.6
576.3
664.2
736.3
873.4
359.7
418.1
496.4
554.7
655.0
24.5
29.4
29.0
31.9
51.3
54.7
64.0
71.0
77.0
85.1
23.3
21.3
22.1
24.8
28.0
11.2
11.7
12.1
13.8
16.0
14.0
14.5
14.8
15.2
15.5
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
4.2
11.4
13,4
14.9
15.2
18.3
502.6
576.3
664.2
736.3
873.4
44.6
49.6
55.2
63.3
71.4
37.0
41.9
48.7
59.4
69.4
421.0
484.8
560.3
613.6
732.6
1980..,.
1981....
1982....
1983*.
1,004.8
1,091.0
1.091.8
1.070.0
755.9
830.0
823,8
789.1
61.4
60.8
53.6
58.3
96.7
102.8
111.4
115.3
33.5
35.9
36.5
37.5
17.2
19.4
21.7
22.4
15.9
16.2
16.8
17.3
4.0
3,8
3.6
3.5
20.2
22.2
24.4
26.6
1,004.8
1,091.0
1,091.8
1,070.0
85.4
95.5
105.6
110.0
80.4
86.4
96.1
105.0
839.0
909.0
890.1
855.0
1
3
9
4
Beginning with 1961, horses and mules are excluded.
Includes all crops held on farms and crops held off farms by farmers as security for Commodity Credit Corporation loans.
Beginning 1975, data are for farms included in the new .farm definition, that is, places with sates of $1,000 or more annually.
Forecast.
Note.—Beginning I960, data include Alaska and Hawaii.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
274
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
TABLE B-100.—Exchange rates, 1967-82
[Cents per unit of foreign currency, except as noted]
Year and month
Belgian franc
Canadian
dollar
French franc
German mark
Italian lira
Japanese yen
March 1973
2.5378
100.333
22.191
35.548
0.17604
0.38190
1967
1968
1969
2.0125
2.0026
1.9942
92.689
92.801
92.855
20.323
20.191
19.302
25.084
25.048
25.491
.16022
.16042
.15940
.27613
.27735
.27903
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
2.0139
2.0598
2.2716
2.5761
2.5713
95.802
99.021
100.937
99.977
102.257
18.087
18.148
19.825
22.536
20.805
27.424
28.768
31.364
37.758
38.723
.15945
.16174
.17132
.17192
.15372
.27921
.28779
.32995
,36915
.34302
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
2.7253
2.5921
2.7911
3.1809
3.4098
98.297
101.410
94.112
87.729
85.386
23.354
20.942
20.344
22.218
23.504
40.729
39.737
43.079
49.867
54.561
.15338
.12044
.11328
.11782
.12035
.33705
.33741
.37342
.47981
.45834
1980
1981
1982
3.4247
2.7007
2.1844
85.530
83.408
81.011
23.694
18.489
15.199
55.089
44.362
41.186
.11694
.08842
.07386
.44311
.45432
.40151
1981:
I
II. .
.
Ill
IV
2.9633
2.6899
2.5157
2.6465
83.784
83.427
82.547
83.918
20.609
18.484
17.247
17.682
48.008
43.958
41.170
. 44.508
.09995
.08827
.08232
.08352
.48644
.45491
.43172
.44572
1982:
1
II
Ill
IV
2.4166
2.2216
2.1017
2.0529
87.721
80.366
80.022
81.199
16.686
15.949
14.396
14.143
42.630
42.048
40.268
39.998
.07932
.07575
.07169
.06968
.42821
.41003
.38614
.38697
Netherlands
guilder
Swedish krona
Swiss franc
United Kingdom
pound
Multilateral trade-weighted value of
the U.S. dollar (March 1973=100)
Nominal
Real1
March 1973
34.834
22.582
31.084
247.24
100.0
1967...
1968
1969
27.759
27.626
27.592
19.373
19.349
19.342
23.104
23.W9
23.186
275.04
239.35
239.01
12O.0
122.1
122.4
1970
1971 .
1972 .
1973
1974
27.651
28.650
31.153
35.977
37.267
19.282
19.592
21.022
22.970
22.563
23.199
24.325
21.193
31.700
33.688
239.59
244.42
250.08
245.10
234.03
121.1
117.8
109.1
99.1
101.4
98.8
99.2
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
39.632
37.846
40.752
46.284
49.843
24.141
22.957
22.383
22.139
23.323
38.743
40.013
41.714
56.283
60.121
222.16
180.48
174.49
191.84
212.24
98.5
105.6
103.3
92.4
88.1
93.9
97.3
93.1
84.2
83.2
1980
1981
1982
50.369
40.191
37.427
23.647
19.860
15.914
59.697
51.025
49.196
232.58
202.43
174.80
87.4
102.9
116.6
84.8
100.8
111.7
1981:
1
II
Iff
IV
43.864
39.567
37.057
40.500
21.976
20.520
18.866
18.096
52.818
49.098
47.757
54.726
230.96
207.91
183.62
188.22
94.5
103.1
110.0
105.4
92.3
100.3
108.0
102.7
38.836
37.920
36.609
36.526
17.432
16.929
16.229
13.660
53.358
50.124
47.272
46.739
184.61
177.95
172.41
164.81
109.9
114.0
119.8
122.2
106.0
109.2
115.3
116.2
100.0
1982:
fl
Ill
(V
•Adjusted by the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
275
TABLE B-101.—£7.5. international transactions, 1946-82
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits ( + )• debits ( }]
Merchandise12
Year or
quarter
Exports
Imports
Investment income3
Net
Receipts Payments Net
Net
travel Other Balance
Net
serv- on goods
and
military
and
transac- transpor- ices,
tation net a services *A
tions
receipts
Remittances, Balance
on
pensions, current
and other
ac-l
unilateral
transfers' count *
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
11,764
16,097
13,265
12,213
^5,067
^5,973
-7,557
-6,874
6,697
10,124
5,708
5,339
772
1,102
1,921
1,831
-212
-245
-437
=476
560
857
1,484
1,355
-493
-455
^799
-621
733
946
374
230
310
145
175
208
7,807
11,617
6,942
6,511
=2,922
=2,625
-4,525
= 5,638
4,885
8,992
2,417
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
10,203
14,243
13,449
12,412
12,929
-9,081
-11,176
-10,838
-10,975
-10,353
1,122
3,067
2,611
1437
2,576
2,068
2,633
2,751
2,736
2,929
-559
-583
-555
-624
-582
1,509
2,050
2,196
2,112
2,347
-576
-1,270
-2,054
-2,423
-2,460
-120
298
83
-238
-269
242
254
309
307
305
2,177
4,399
3,145
1,195
2,499
=4,017
= 3,515
-2,531
-2,481
-2,280
-1,840
884
614
= 1,286
219
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
14,424 -11,527
17,556 = 12,803
19,562 -13,291
16,414 = 12,952
16,458 -15,310
2,897
4,753
6,271
3,462
1,148
3,406
3,837
4,180
3,790
4,132
-676
-735
-796
-825
-1,061
2,730
3,102
3,384
2,965
3,071
-2,701
-2,788
-2,841
-3,135
=-2,805
-297
-361
-189
-633
-821
299
447
482
486
573
2,928
5,153
7,107
3,145
1,166
-2,498
-2,423
-2,345
=2,361
=2,448
430
2,730
4,762
784
-1,282
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
19,650
20,108
20,781
22,272
25,501
= 14,758
= 14,537
= 16,260
-17,048
-18,700
4,892
5,571
4,521
5,224
6,801
4,616
4,999
5,618
6,157
6,824
-1,237
-1,245
-1,324
-1,561
-1,784
3,379
3,754
4,294
4,596
5,040
579
-2,752 -964
594
-2,596 -978
809
-2,449 -1,152
960
-2,304 -1,309
-2,133 -1,146 1,041
5,132
6,346
6,025
7,167
9,604
-2,308
-2,524
-2,638
=2,754
-2,781
2,824
3,822
3,387
4,414
6,823
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
26,461
29,310
30,666
33,626
36,414
=21,510
=25,493
-26,866
-32,991
-35,807
4,951
3,817
-2,088
-2,481
-2,747
-3,378
-4,869
5,349
5,047
5,273
5,990
6,043
-2,122
-2,935
-3,226
-3,143
=3,328
-1,280
-1,331
-1,750
-1,548
-1,763
1,387
1,365
1,612
1,630
1,833
8,285
635
607
7,437
7,528
8,020
9,368
10,912
5,963
5,708
3,563
3,393
-2,854
-2,932
-3,125
-2,952
-2,994
5,432
3,031
2,583
611
399
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
42,469 - 39,866
43,319 =45,579
49,381 -55,797
71,410 -70,499
98,306 -103,649
2,603
-2,260
-6,416
911
-5,343
11,747
12,707
14,764
21,808
27,587
-5,516
-5,436
-6,572
-9,655
-12,084
6,231
7,271
8,192
12,153
15,503
-3,354
-2,893
-3,420
-2,070
-1,653
-2,038
-2,345
-3,063
-3,158
-3,184
2,180
2,495
2,766
3,184
3,986
5,625
2,269
= 1,941
11,021
9,309
-3,294
-3,701
-3,854
-3,881
8
-7,186
2,331
-1,433
-5,795
7,140
2,124
3,800
873
1975,.
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
107,088
114,745
120,816
142,054
184,473
9,047
-98,041
=-124,051 -9,306
= 151,689 -30,873
475,813 -33,759
-211.819 -27,346
25,351
29,286
32,179
42,245
64,129
-12,564
-13,311
-14,217
-21,680
-32,914
12,787
15,975
17,962
20,565
31,215
-746
559
1,528
621
-2,035
-2,792
-2,558
-3,293
-3,125
-2,429
4,598
4,711
5,224
5,955
5,690
22,893
9,382
-9,451
-9,743
5,095
1980....
1981....
224,237 -249,575 -25,338
236,254 264,143 -27,889
72,686
85,945
-42,776
-52,908
29,910
33,037
-2,471
-1,541
-940
-231
7,144
7,702
8,303
11,079
=6,783
-6,608
1,520
4,471
18,280
=4,613
4,384
-4,998
-4,617 -14,068
-5,030 -14,773
466
-5,561
1980:
I
IV
1981:
I
IV
-64,431
-62,363
-59,735
=63,046
-9,679
-6,520
-3,949
-5,190
19,944
16,016
17,848
18,877
= 10,505
-10,268
-10,485
-11,519
9,439
5,748
7,363
7,358
•=931
-514
-286
-742
-436
= 216
-114
-174
1,644
1,808
1,810
1,879
37
306
4,824
3,131
= 1,837
-1,306
-1,444
-2,195
-1,800
-1,000
3,380
936
60,683 -64,995
60,284 -66,831
57,694 -65,539
57,593 -66,778
-4,312
-6,547
=7,845
-9,185
20,528
21,642
22,048
21,727
-12,405
-13,441
-13,865
-13,198
8,123
8,201
8,183
8,529
=-487
587
61
-528
-495 1.838
-139 1,981
200 1,960
203 1,924
4,667
2,909
2,559
943
-1,422
-1,510
-1,808
= 1,870
3,245
1,399
751
-927
-61,653 -5,873
- 60,869 -5,695
=64,938 -12,458
20,890
22,562
21,880
-14,029
-14,874
-14,462
6,861
7,688
7,418
167
247
527
- 6 6 2,034
-=319 2,050
-201 2.140
3,123
3,971
2,574
-2,048
-1,740
-1,653
1,075
2,231
-4,227
54,752
55,843
55,786
57,856
1982:
II
111*..
55,780
55,174
52,480
1
8
Excludes military.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in valuation, coverage, and timing.
o Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from
investment income and included in other services, net.
4
In concept balance on goods and services is equal to net exports and imports in the national income and product accounts (and
the sum of balance on current account and allocations of special drawing rights is equal to net foreign investment in the accounts),
although the series differ because of different handling of certain items (gold, extraordinary military shipments, etc.), revisions, etc.
6
Includes extraordinary U.S. Government transactions with India.
See next page for continuation of table.
276
TABLE B-101.—U.S. international transactions, 1946-82—Continued
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase/capital outflow < - ) ]
Year or
quarter
Total
U.S.
official
reserve
assets 6
1946
1947
1948
1949
Total
Foreign
official
assets
Other
foreign
assets
Statistical
discrepancy
Total
(sum of
the items
with sign
reversed)
Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy
1,758
-33
415
1,256
480
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
U.S.
private
assets
Allocations of
special
drawing
rights
(SDRs)
-623
3 315
-1,736
266
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
Other
U.S.
Government
assets
Foreign assets in the U.S., net
[increase/capital inflow ( + )]
182
869
-1,165
2,292
1,035
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
-4,099
-5,538
-4,174
-7,270
-9,560
2,145
607
1,535
378
171
-1,100
-910
-1,085
-1,662
-1,680
5,144
-5,235
4,623
-5,986
8,050
2,294
2,705
1,911
3,217
3,643
1,473
765
1,270
1,986
1,660
821
1,939
641
1,231
1,983
-1019
-989
-1,124
-360
-907
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
-5,716
-7,321
-9.757
-10.977
-11,585
1,225
570
53
-870
-1,179
-1,605
-1,543
-2,423
-2,274
-2,200
5,336
-6,347
-7,386
-7,833
-8,206
742
3,661
7,379
9,928
12,702
134
-672
3,451
-774
-1,301
607
4,333
3,928
10,703
14,002
-458
629
-205
438
-1,516
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
-9,337
-12,475
-14,497
-22,874
-34,745
2,481
2,349
10,229
12,940
-12,925
20,388
-33,643
6,359
22,970
21,461
18,388
34,241
6,908
26,879
10,475
6,026
10,546
-550
-3,909
10,986
12,362
23,696
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
-39,703
-51,269
-34,785
-61,130
-64.344
158
-1,467
-849
-2,558
-375
732
-1,133
-1,589
-1,884
-1,568
-2,644
«366
-3,474
-4,214
-3,693
-4,660
-3>43
-35,380
44,498
-30,717
-57,202
59,469
15,670
36,518
51,319
64,036
38,460
7,027
17,693
36,816
33,678
-13,697
8,643
18,826
14,503
30,358
52,157
1,1*39"
5,753
10,367
-2,465
11,866
25,212
1980
1981
-86,026
-109,294
-8,155
-5,175
-5,126
-5,137
-72,746
98,982
54,484
77,921
15,442
4,785
39,042
73,136
1,152
1,093
28,870
25,809
-12,916
-24,962
-19,635
-28,512
-3,268
502
-1,109
-4,279
-1,438
-1,143
-1,390
-1,154
-8,210
24,321
17,136
-23,079
7,865
8,616
12,647
25,356
7,421
7,644
7,541
7,678
15,286
972
5,106
17,677
-22,796
-21,566
-17,257
-47,677
-4,529
-905
262
-1,375
-1,518
-1,257
-987
16,892
-19,143
-15,996
-46,952
8,470
13,464
16,880
39,107
5,361
-2,861
-5,835
8,119
3,109
16,324
22,715
30,988
-31,201
-37,790
-26,364
-1,089
-1,132
-794
-904
-1,547
-2,418
-29,208
35,111
-23,152
25,080
29,619
16,054
-3,122
1,998
2,102
28,202
27,621
13,952
1980:
II
III
IV
1981:
1
II
Ill
IV
1982:
1
II
|||p
e
867
717
710
1,152
1.093
-219
-9,779
-1,879
-2,654
-1,620
5,700
17,346
3,608
2,219
-643
795
-2,754
2,605
9,988
6,703
-374
9,497
-=829
503
-2,144
2,474
5,045
5,940
14,537
-899
574
-1,973
Consists of gold, special drawing rights, convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund
(ItVlrJ.
Note.—Quarterly data for U.S. official reserve assets and foreign assets in the United States are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
277
TABLE B-102,—U.S. merchandise exports and imports by principal end-use category, 1965-82
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Imports
Exports
Nonpetroleurr
Nonagricultural
Year or quarter
Total
Agricultural
Total
Total
Capital
goods
except
automotive
Other
goods
Petroleum
and
products
Total
Industrial
supplies
and
materials
Other
goods
26,461
29,310
30,666
33,626
36,414
6.305
6,949
6,453
6,297
6,096
20,156
22,361
24,213
27,329
30,318
8,052
8,907
9,934
11,111
12,369
12,104
13,454
14,279
16,218
17,949
21,510
25,493
26,866
32,991
35,807
2.034
2,078
2,091
2,384
2,649
19,476
23,415
24,775
30,607
33,158
9,123
10,235
9,956
12,027
11,798
10,353
13,180
14,819
18,580
21,360
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
42,469
43,319
49,381
71,410
98,306
7,374
7,831
9,513
17.978
22,412
35,095
35,488
39,868
53,432
75,894
14,659
15,372
16,914
21,999
30,878
20,436
20,116
22,954
31,433
45,016
39,866
45,579
55,797
70,499
103,649
2,927
3,650
4,650
8,415
26,609
36,939
41,929
51,147
62,084
77,040
12,416
13,794
16,308
19,636
27.819
24,523
28,135
34,839
42,448
49,221
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
107.088
114,745
120,816
142,054
184,473
22,242
23,381
24,331
29,902
35,594
84,846
91,364
96,485
112,152
148,879
36,639
39,112
39,767
46,470
58,842
48,207
52,252
56,718
65,682
90,037
98,041
124,051
151,689
175,813
211,819
27,017
34,573
44,983
42,312
60,482
71,024
89,478
106,706
133,501
151,337
24.013
29,759
35,670
42,542
49,880
47,011
59,719
71,036
90,959
101,457
1980
1981
224,237
236.254
42,156
44,264
182,081
191,990
74,178
81,666
107,903
110,324
249,575
264,143
79,414
77,579
170,161
186,564
55,632
60,281
114,529
126.283
1980:
1
||
Ill
I
V
54,752
55.843
55,786
57.856
10,159
10,159
10,706
11,132
44,593
45,684
45,080
46,724
17,070
18,458
18,965
19,685
27,523
27,226
26,115
27,039
64,431
62,363
59,735
63,046
21,049
20,834
17,735
19,796
43,382
41,529
42,000
43,250
15,331
13,624
13,167
13,510
28,051
27,905
28,833
29,740
1981:
|
||
III
IV
60,683
60,284
57,694
57,593
12,575
11,151
9,947
10,591
48,108
49,133
47,747
47,002
20,122
21,107
20,236
20,201
27,986
28,026
27,511
26,801
64,995
66,831
65,539
66.778
20,533
20,798
18,158
18,091
44,462
46,034
47,382
48,687
14,474
15,205
15,498
15,102
29,988
30,829
31,884
33,585
55,780
55,174
52,480
10,510
10.673
8,496
45,270
44,501
43,984
19,354
19,310
18,571
25,916
25,191
25,413
61,653
60,869
64,938
15,652
13,416
16,453
46,001
47,453
48,485
14,230
13,422
13,485
31,771
34,031
35,000
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1982:
I
II
|[|P
..
.
Note,- Data are on an international transactions basis and exclude military shipments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysts.
278
TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exports and imports by area, 1973-82
[Millions of dollars]
Item
1973
Exports
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 first
3 quarters
at annual
rate*
71,410 98,306 107,088
114,745
120,816
142,054
184,473
224,237 236,254
217,912
48,529 64,487 66,496
72,335
76,970
87,948
115,930
137,152
141,134
130,069
16,710 21,842 23,537
Canada
8,356 10,724 9,567
Japan
Western Europe
21,216 28,164 29,884
Australia, New Zealand,
2,247 3,757 3,508
and South Africa
26,336
10,196
31,883
28,533
10,566
34,094
31,229
12,960
39,546
38,690
17,629
54,177
41,626
20,806
67,603
45,250
21,796
65,090
40,099
20,839
60,952
3,920
3,777
4,213
5,434
7,117
8,998
8,180
20,834 32,082 37,343
38,287
40,951
50,213
62,630
82,942
90,636
83,820
9,956
27,387
11,561
26,726
12,877
14,846
35,367
14,537
48,093
17,364
65,578
21,093
69,543
21,103
62,717
3,249
4,123
3,893
5,913
4,143
4,461
4,023
249,575 •264,143
-•249,947
Industrial countries
Other countries,
Eastern Europe
2
OPEC3 ...
Other ..
except
3,414
6,219
17,420 25,863
28,074
Eastern Europe
2,047
1,737
2,895
Imports
'175,813
70,499 103,649 98,041 * 124,051
'211,819
1
451,689
Industrial countries...
48,985 61,092 55,973
17,694 22,392 21,710
Canada
9,665 12,414 11,257
Japan
19,774 24,267 20,764
Western Europe
Australia, New Zealand,
1,852
2,019 2,242
and South Africa
Other countries, except
20,913 41,580 41,334
Eastern Europe...
OPEC 2...
Other'...
Eastern Europe...
5,097 17,234 18,897
15,816 24,346 22,437
601
977
734
67,488
99,151
112,600
127,702
143,395
145,681
26,475
15,531
23,003
79,228
29,645
18,565
28,226
33,552
24,541
36,618
39,020
26,261
41,826
42,697
31,217
47,255
47,316
37,598
52,873
48,863
38,775
52,955
2,479
2,792
4,440
5,493
6,533
5,608
5,089
55,379
70,680
74,402
96,137
119,142 119,196
103,102
27,409
27,970
35,778
34,902
33,286
41,116
45,039
51,098
55,602
63,540
49,934
69,262
32,433
70,669
875
1,127
1,508
1,896
1,444
1,552
1,132
1
2
3
4
Preliminary; seasonally adjusted.
Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
Latin American Republics, other Western Hemisphere, and other countries in Asia and Africa, less members of OPEC.
Trade with international organizations is included in totals for 1976-82, but not in area detail. This includes imports of
nonmonetary gold from International Monetary Fund in 1976-80; an export of tin to International Tin Council (ITC) in 1981; and an
import of tin from ITC in 1982.
Note.—Data are on an international transactions basis and exclude military.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
279
TABLE B-104.—U.S. merchandise exports and imports by commodity groups, 1960-82
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Merchandise exports1
Year or
month
Total
domestic and
foreign Total 2 3
exports3
Merchandise imports
Domestic exports
Food, Crude
Crude ManuManu
materi- factured Total 3 bever- materi- factured
ages, als and
and
and als and goods
fuels 4
fuels* goods
tobacco
tobacco
Food,
F.a.s. value 8
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
19,659 19,459
20,226 19,982
20,986 20,717
22,467 22,182
25,832 25,479
26,742 26,399
29,490 29,054
31,030 30,646
34,063 33,626
37,332 36,788
42,659 42.025
43,549 42,911
49,199 48,399
70,823 69,730
97,998 96,634
Merchandise trade balance
General imports"
Total,
elf.
value7
Exports Exports Exports
less
less
less
imports, imports, imports,
customs f.a.s.
elf.
value
Customs value
3,167 3,942 12,583
3,466 3,864 12,784
3,743 3,356 13,668
4,188 3,775 14.297
4,637 4,337 16,529
4,519 4,273 17,433
5,186 4,404 19,218
4,710 4,726 20,844
4,592 4,865 23,818
4,446 5,006 26,785
5,058 6,692 29,344
5,076 6,441 30,443
6,569 7,091 33,740
12,938 10,735 44,731
15,233 15,802 63,523
15,073
14,761
16,464
17,207
18,749
21,427
25,618
26,889
33,226
36,043
39,951
45,563
55,583
69,476
101,394
6,863
4,418
6,537
4,334
7,649
4,691
8,070
4,755
5,029 9,106
5,440 11,244
4,013
4,590
5,718 14,446
4,701
5,367 15,756 28,745
5,365
6,031 20,624 35,320
5,308
6,391 23,011 38,241
6,230
6,542 25,907 42,429
6,404
7,268 30,414 48,342
7,379
8,838 37,767 58,862
9,235 13,446 45,001 73,573
10,701 31,842 56,202 108,392
3,392
3,455
3,674
3,863
4,022
4,586
5,465
4,522
5,260
7,083
5,311
3,872
4,141
837
1,289
2,708
-2,014
-6,384
1,348
-3,396
2,283
-1,257
-909
230
-4,793
-9,663
2,752
-10,395
F.a.s. value 8
1974*
1975*
1976*
1977*
1978*
1979*
1980
98,092
107,652
115,223
121,232
143,681
181,860
220,630
1981
1982
233,677 228,899 33,206 33,022 154,283 260,982
212,193 207,076 26,977 33,518 139,716 243,952
96,679 15,233
106,161 16,793
113,549 17,234
119,024 15,963
141,142 20,604
178,633 24,587
216,515 30,407
15,802 63,523 102,559
15,197 70,951 98,503
16,095 77,241 123,477
18,579 80,151 150,390
20,957 94,473 174,757
28,222 116,587 209,458
33,719 143,891 244,871
10,709
9,923
11,891
14,227
15,743
17,735
18,551
32,064
32,596
41,474
53,554
51,901
71,390
93,973
55,223
51,080
64,775
76,554
100,317
112,226
125,122
-4,467 -12,783
1,772
9,149
-8,254 -17,274
-29,158 -39,179
-31,076 -42,364
-27,599 -40,368
110,875
105,880
132,498
160,411
186,045
222,228
256,984
=24,241 =36,354
Customs value
1981:
Jan
Feb
Mar....
June..
July...
Aug.,.
Sept..
oeS
Nov...
Dec...
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar...
tp
June..
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Ocl
Nov...
Dec...,
18,902 18,536
19,788 19,465
21,278 20,843
19,786 19,377
18,899 18,528
19,750 19,340
19,289 18,919
19,031 18,720
19,551 19,108
19,163 18,733
19,153 18,751
18,885 18,377
18,737
18,704
18,602
17,843
18,218
18,822
18,027
17,498
17,387
16,698
15,693
16,335
18,350
18,341
18,127
17,441
17,807
18,386
17,638
17,177
16,651
16,310
15,317
15,902
2,934
2,943
3,304
2,891
2,667
2,573
2,815
2,958
3,219
2,530
2,526
2,342
2,549
2,470
2,772
2,920
2,675
2,515
2,279
2,482
2,673
2,506
2,478
2,421
1,896
2,162
1,909
2,132
2,086
1,943
18,350 92,873 142,475 273^352
17,817 74,404 .144,022 254,885
27,305
31,759
=39,675
=42,691
-4,777
=3,129
-705
2,430
2,662
2,795
2,863
2,872
2,934
12,065
12,813
13,558
13,276
12,619
13,456
13,060
12,991
12,947
12,458
12,590
12,318
22,616
21,916
21,029
22,249
21,232
22,005
20,114
23,242
21,274
23,077
22,508
19,746
1,736
1,589
1,612
1,471
1,665
1,472
1,390
1,479
1,393
1,583
1,413
1,542
8,976
9,099
7,471
8,878
7,146
8,249
6,576
7,779
7,411
7,642
7,468
6,174
11,278
10,750
11,379
11,325
11,816
11,645
11,622
13,361
11,971
13,127
12,826
11,414
23,679
22,917
21,983
23,266
22,248
23,033
21,074
24,398
22,317
24,194
23,568
20,699
-3,714
-2,127
249
-2,463
-2,333
-2,255
-825
-4,212
-1,724
-3,914
-3,356
-861
3,076
3,434
3,151
2,898
2,912
2,797
2,617
2,642
2,832
2,665
2,361
2,420
12,463
11,876
11,822
11,428
11,837
12,563
12,590
11,882
11,334
10,987
10,369
10,660
22,829
19,090
20,349
17,387
20,558
21,310
19,559
23,494
20,644
21,096
18,937
18,865
1,340
1,154
1,529
1,435
1,569
1,567
1,389
1,617
1,581
1,667
1,498
1,469
8,269
5,845
5,717
5,033
4,906
6,198
6,645
7,168
5,968
6,711
5,770
6,181
12,584
11,527
12,402
10,337
13,219
12,899
10,982
14,111
12,434
12,028
11,038
10,621
23,870
19,900
21,237
18,165
21,509
22,259
20,449
24,578
21,580
22,024
19,783
19,701
4
1,747
456
2,340
2,488
1,532
5,996
3,257
4,398
3,244
2,529
3,480
-3,349
-3,283
-1,784
=5,367
= 2,766
-5,031
=4,415
-1,814
= 5.134
-1,197
= 2,635
-322
=3,291
-3,437
=2,422
-7,080
-4,192
=5,326
-4,090
-3,366
1
Beginning 1960, data have been adjusted for comparability with the revised commodity classifications effective in 1965.
2
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded
from total exports.
9
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
4
Includes fats and oils.
5
Includes machinery, transportation equipment, chemicals, metals, and other manufactures. Export data for these items include
military grant-aid shipments through 1977 and exclude them thereafter.
8
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
7
C.i.f. {cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry into United States. Data for 1967-73 are estimates.
6
F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports.
Trade in gold is included beginning 1974. Export statistics cover all merchandise shipped from the U.S. customs area, except supplies
for the US. Armed Forces. Exports include shipments under Agency for International Development and Food for Peace programs as well
as other private relief shipments.
Data for 1980 and 1981 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the
figures for domestic and foreign exports combined, total domestic exports, and trade balance.
*Data for 1974=79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total domestic exports, total general imports, and trade balance
Include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Investment and
Analysis, Trade Performance Division).
280
TABLE B-105.—International investment position of the United States at year-end, selected years, 1970-81
[Billions of dollars]
Type of investment
Net international investment position of the United States..
U.S. assets abroad
U.S. official reserve assets..
Gold
Special drawing rights (SDRs)
Reserve position in the International Monetary
Fund (IMF)
Foreign currency reserves
Other U.S. Government assets..
U.S. loans and other long-term assets
U.S. short-term assets other than reserves
U.S. private assets
Direct investments abroad (book value)
Foreign securities
Claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks, not
included elsewhere
Claims on unaffiliated foreigners reported by
U.S. nonbanks
Foreign assets in the United StatesForeign official assets
U.S. Government securities l
Other U.S. Government liabilities
Liabilities reported by U.S. banks, not included
elsewhere
Other official assets
Other foreign assets
Direct investments in the United States (book
value)
Liabilities reported by U.S. banks, not included
elsewhere
U.S. Treasury securities
Other U.S. securities2
Liabilities to unaffiliated foreigners reported by
U.S. nonbanks
1970
1974
1976
1978
1979
1980
1981
58.6
37.1
58.8
83.8
76.2
94.9
121.6
160.3
165.5
199.0
255.7
347.2
447.9
510.6
606.9
717.4
14.5
13.2
15.9
18.7
18.7
19.0
26.8
30.1
11.1
.9
10.5
2.0
11.7
2.4
11.6
2.4
11.7
1.6
11.2
2.7
11.2
2.6
11.2
4.1
1.9
.6
.5
.2
1.9
.0
1.0
4.4
1.3
3.8
2.9
10.1
5.1
9.8
32.1
36.1
38.4
4.4
.3
46.0
54.2
58.4
63.5
68.5
29.7
2.5
34.1
2.0
36.3
2.1
44.1
1.9
52.3
1.9
56.5
1.9
61.9
1.7
67.2
1.3
118.8
149.7
201.5
282.4
375.0
433.2
516.6
618.8
75.5
21.0
89.9
27.6
110.1
28.2
136.8
44.2
162.7
53.4
187.9
215.6
62.5
227.3
62.9
13.8
20.7
46.2
81.1
130.8
203.9
293.5
8.5
11.4
17.0
20.3
28.1
106.8
161.8
196.9
263.4
371.6
26.1
63.2
79.8
104.2
173.0
415.7
159.7
17.7
1.7
52.9
1.6
58.1
2.6
72.6
8.8
128.5
12.7
106.6
12.6
6.7
.0
8.5
.2
18.4
.6
17.2
5.6
23.3
8.5
80.7
98.7
117.1
159.1
198.7
56.8
157.0
34.7
35.0
485.3
557.1
175.8
180.1
118.2
13.1
125.1
13.1
30.5
9.9
30.4
14.1
26.3
15.6
256.0
309.4
377.1
31.5
13.3
14.9
25.1
30.8
42.5
54.5
68.4
89.8
22.7
1.2
34.7
21.2
1.2
50.7
41.8
1.7
34.9
53.5
7.0
54.9
77.7
8.9
53.6
110.3
14.2
58.6
121.1
16.1
74.1
164.7
18.5
75.3
8.8
10.7
13.6
13.0
16.0
18.4
29.8
28.9
1
Includes Treasury and agency issues of securities.
Corporate and other bonds and corporate stocks.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2
1972
281
TABLE B-106.— World trade: Exports and imports, 1965, 1970, 1975, and 1979-82
[Billions of U.S. dollars]
1965
1970
1975
Developed countries'.
130.1
226.7
585.7
1,085.7
United States
Canada
Japan
27.5
8.4
8.5
43.2
16.7
19.3
108.1
34.1
55.7
182.0
58.3
102.3
European Community4
65.2
113.6
300.6
France
West Germany
Italy
United Kingdom..,
10.2
17.9
7.2
13.8
18.1
34.2
13.2
19.6
53.1
90.2
34.8
44.5
Area and country
l
1981
1982
1.283.9
1.258.9
1,199.7
220.8
67.7
130.4
233.7
72.6
151.5
212.9
71.1
140.3
577.2
665.8
612.8
599.3
100.7
171.8
72.2
86.4
116.0
192.9
77.7
110.1
106.4
176.1
75.3
102.7
96.4
175.7
77.3
95.5
1979
1980
Exports, f.o.b. *
Oil exporting countries8
Other
Communist countries 0 ..
U.S.S.R
Eastern Europe....
China
TOTAL...
20.5
33.7
87.1
165.8
199.1
188.2
176.1
40.2
61.7
226.5
452.8
608.8
606.1
525.9
10.5
29.6
17.5
44.2
113.6
113.0
214.3
238.5
301.2
307.6
276.4
329.6
212.8
313.1
23.2
34.9
90.5
170.4
203.1
213.2
215.6
8.2
11.8
2.0
12.8
18.2
2.2
33.4
45.3
7.3
64.9
77.9
13.5
76.4
87.5
18.9
79.4
91.1
21.4
80.9
90.1
23.0
193.5
Other developed countries..
Developing countries
323.3
902.7
1,708.9
2,095.8
2,078.2
1,941.2
Imports, c.i.f.
Developed countries3..
7
137.5
237.8
618.1
1,182.7
1,427.1
1,358.3
1,290.4
United States..
Canada
Japan
23.2
8.7
8.2
42.7
14.3
18.9
105.9
36.2
57.8
222.2
57.0
109.8
257.0
62.8
141.3
273.4
70.0
142.9
261.4
60.8
132.0
European Community4
70.5
118.9
306.4
611.1
729.2
644.2
628.1
10.4
17.6
7.4
16.1
19.1
29.9
15.0
22.0
54.0
74.9
38.4
53.3
107.0
159.6
77.9
99.6
134.9
188.0
99.5
115.8
121.0
163.9
91.1
102.0
116.6
154.9
90.5
100.1
France
West Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
Other developed countries..
Developing countries
Oil exporting countries8
Other
Communist countries 0 ..
U.S.S.R
Eastern Europe..
China
TOTAL..
27.0
43.1
111.8
182.6
236.8
227.9
208.1
43.5
67.8
221.6
408.0
540.1
595.2
562.4
6.4
37.2
9.9
57.9
52.8
168.9
100.1
307.8
137.2
402.9
162.0
433.2
163.9
398,5
22.5
34.1
100.8
170.9
202.8
211.2
209.3
8.0
11.6
1.8
11.7
18.5
2.2
37.1
51.3
7.4
58.0
83.0
15.7
$8.5
93.1
20.9
73.2
97.3
19.6
80.1
89.2
19.1
203.5
339.7
940.5
1,761.6
2,170.0
2,164.7
2,062.1
1
2
3
4
6
Preliminary estimates.
Free-cn-board ship value.
Includes the OECD countries, South Africa, and non-OECD Europe.
Includes Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, and the Netherlands, not shown separately.
Includes Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and
Venezuela.
•Includes North Korea. Vietnam, Albania, Cuba, Mongolia, and Yugoslavia, not shown separately.
'Cost, insurance, and freight value; except Eastern Europe (except Hungary) and U.S.S.R., which are f.o.b (free on board).
Sources: International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and Council of Economic Advisers.
282
TABLE B-107.— World trade balance and current account balances, 1965, 1970, 1975, and
1979-82
[Billions of U.S. dollars]
Area and country
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982»
World trade balance2
Developed countries3
-7.4
-11.2
-32.5
-97.1
-143.2
-99.4
-90.7
United States....
Canada
Japan
4.3
-.2
is
2.2
-2.1
-2.1
-40.2
1.3
-7.5
-36.2
4.9
-10.9
-39.6
2.6
8.6
-48.5
10.3
8.3
-5.3
-5.2
-5.7
-33.9
-63.3
-31.4
-28.8
-.2
-2
-2.3
-1.0
4.3
-1.8
-2.4
152
-3.6
-8.8
-6.3
12.2
-5.7
-13.2
-18.9
4.9
-21.8
-5.7
-14.5
12.2
-15.8
-20.2
20.8
-13.2
-6.4
-9.4
-24.7
-16.8
-37.7
-39.7
-3.3
-6.1
4.9
44.8
68.6
10.8
4.2
-7.5
7.6
-13.6
60.8
-55.9
114.2
-69.4
164.0
-95.4
114.4
-103.6
-36.5
48.9
-85.4
.«
-10.3
-.5
.3
2.0
6.3
.2
1.1
'2
~!o
-3.7
-6.0
6.9
-5.1
-2.2
7.9
-5.6
-2.0
6.2
-6.1
1.8
.8
.8
3.9
-10.0
-16.4
-37.8
-52.7
-74.2
-86.5
-120.9
European Community4
France
West Germany
Italy
United Kingdom....
Other developed countries
Developing countries
Oil-exporting countries5
Other
..
Communist countries6..
U.S.S.R
Eastern Europe..
China
TOTAL7...
Current account balances
3
Developed countries ..
8
3.2
4.7
-2.7
-29.8
-70.6
-40.1
-43.8
5.4
-1,1
2.3
2!o
18.3
-4.7
-.6
-A2
-8.7
1.5
-.9
-10.7
4.2
-4.4
5.1
-8.8
1.0
6.5
2.8
2.5
-8.7
-37.3
-14.2
-17.0
.4
-1.6
2.2
-.1
United States..
Canada
Japan
-.1
.9
.9
2.0
1.6
4.0
-.6
5.2
-6.1
5.4
-1.7
-3.6
-16.4
-9.8
-3.0
-7.1
-8.5
12.4
-11.5
-2.9
-3.1
European Community4
France
West Germany
Italy
United Kingdom....
Other developed countries
-4.6
-32.0
,
Developing countries
U.S.S.R
Eastern Europe..
China
-18.2
-7.7
-18.3
6.9
-23.2
-30.7
-25.0
-"sis
4,5
-25.5
-16.5
19.4
-35.9
-1,8
-.1
TOTAL..
1
2
3
4
27.9
-46.2
-1.3
72.1
-73.4
-11.2
-4.9
-3.0
2.7
-61.0
2.0
-63.0
6.7
-4.7
-6.4
3.8
-7.6
-1.1
3.5
-5.5
-1.0
2.7
-3.5
3.5
3.1
-2.0
5.6
-30.4
Oil exporting countries5..
Other..
*
Communist cour
-3.4
-53.0
-74.9
-62.4
-98.1
56.5
-81.5
Preliminary estimates.
Exports f.o.b. (free-on-board ship value) less imports c.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight).
Includes the OECD countries. South Africa, and non-OECO Europe.
Includes Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, and the Netherlands, not shown separately.
* Includes Afgeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and
Venezuela.
• Includes North Korea, Vietnam, Albania, Cuba, Mongolia, and Yugoslavia, not shown separately.
7
Asymmetries arise in global payments aggregations because of discrepancies in coverage, classification, timing, and valuation in the
recording of transactions by the countries involved.
8 OECD basis.
Sources: International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and Council of Economic Advisers.
283
TABLE B-108.—International reserves, selected years, 1952-82
[Millions of SDRs; end of period]
1982
Area and country
a
All countries *.
Industrial countries
1952
3
United States....
Canada
Australia
Japan
New Zealand
Austria
Belgium
Denmark...
Finland
France
Germany
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom..
Oil-exporting countries..
Algeria
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
Libya
Nigeria
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia..
United Arab Emirates..
Venezuela
Non-oil developing countries..
Africa
Asia
Europe
Middle East
Western Hemisphere..
1962
1972
1979
1980
1981
November
49,391
62,851
147,443
306,995
358,706
375,793
364,589
38,582
52,535
110,282
180,775
211,490
212,732
207,396
24,714
1,944
920
1,101
183
17,220
2,561
1,168
2,021
251
12,112
5,572
5,656
16,916
767
15,170
2,951
1,359
15,667
344
21,479
3,159
1,603
20,164
277
25,502
3,755
1,713
25,083
580
30,415
3,396
5,539
22,150
523
116
1,133
150
132
686
1,081
1,753
256
237
4,049
2,505
3,564
787
664
9,224
3,832
5,307
2,514
1,204
16,212
4,879
7,330
2,712
1,501
24,301
5,279
5,451
2,246
1.319
21,991
5,157
5,086
2,004
1,254
15,230
960
8
318
722
953
6,958
32
359
43,225
125
1,693
16,149
7,301
40,976
138
2,255
20,477
10,669
40,892
199
2,290
19,631
9,562
43,580
132
2,151
14,605
10,056
1,943
21,908
78
1,038
5,605
4,407
164
134
504
1,667
1,956
304
1,045
802
2,919
3,308
1,220
4,618
1,453
6,961
5,201
3,241
10,550
2,880
15,391
15,626
4,783
9,813
2,893
15,190
16,851
5,414
9,794
3,306
14,925
13,757
6,808
* 7,675
3,499
15,448
12,770
1,699
2,030
10,071
56,318
73,601
81,428
76,989
314
177
131
50
186
108
211
193
97
454
531
885
720
335
2,214
3,093
11,682
3,153
4,311
3,370
4,416
2,511
3,041
2,268
3,169
3,583
5,263
500
96
289
2,694
346
149
56
2,303
4,902
4,235
445
7,860
3,371
988
339
27,855
6,239
1,128
• 1,049
14,790
10,372
8,049
692
286
18,536
1,600
5,579
* 2,957
6,721
4,218
32,628
6,972
4,068
268
228
443
583
1,595
1,107
5,958
8,576
8,171
26,132
68,703
71,776
2,775
7,415
75,303
1,202
3,407
966
825
2,175
1,635
2,550
1,346
940
1,700
3,168
6,640
6,428
2,402
7,494
4,286
23,205
7,400
7,442
26,370
4,444
24,947
8,060
8,311
26,014
4,175
27,441
8,159
9,001
26.527
26,929
73,035
8,753
20,464
1
8
3
Includes Taiwan, not shown in area detail.
Includes Cuba.
Includes Luxembourg.
4
Data are for October 1982.
Note.—International reserves is comprised of monetary authorities' holdings of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), reserve positions
in the International Monetary Fund, and foreign exchange. Data exclude U.S.S.R., other Eastern European countries, and Cuba (after
1960).
U.S. dollars per SDR (end of period) are: 1952 and 1962—1.00000; 1972—1.08571; 1977—1.21471; 1978—1.30279; 1979—
1.31733; 1980=1.27541; 1981-1.6396; and November 1982-1.07953.
Source: International Monetary Fund, "InternationalfinancialStatistics,"
284
TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real gross national product, 1960-82
[Percent change]
Area and country
Developed countries 3 ..
1960-73 1974-81
annual
annual
average average
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 i
U.S. dollar
value in
1981
(billions) 2
5.1
2.7
4.1
3.5
1.2
1.4
-.5
7,020
4.1
5.6
10.4
United States..
Canada
2.7
2.6
4.4
4.8
3.7
5.1
3.2
3.0
5.6
-.2
.0
4.2
2.0
3.0
2.9
-1.8
-5.0
2.5
2,926
280
1,150
European Community 4
4.7
1.9
3.1
3.4
1.3
-.4
.3
2,420
France
West Germany....
Italy
United Kingdom..
5.8
4.7
5.2
3.1
2.5
2.2
2.1
.9
3.7
3.6
2.7
3.3
3.5
4.3
4.9
1.4
1.6
1.8
4.0
.3
-.3
-.2
-.8
1.5
-1.3
.8
.5
577
687
299
502
5.1
1.9
2.1
-1.7
5.8
4.4
4.3
4.1
3.7
4.6
6.7
3.3
3.2
4.5
2.0
5.6
-.5
3.1
1.2
540
1,425
5.2
2.7
4.2
1.6
1.9
1.2
1.4
2,740
5.2
4.1
6.5
2.3
1.8
5.9
3.4
3.0
12.3
1.8
-1.0
3.0
1.6
1.3
6.9
1.5
.4
6.9
1,587
671
328
5.2
2.9
3.8
2.8
1.8
1.8
2
11,725
Other developed countries..
Developing countries
Oil exporting countries 8
Other
7
Communist countries ..
U.S.S.R
Eastern Europe..
China
TOTAL..
1
2
-1.7
4.0
4.5
5.2
245
2.7
1,965
Preliminary estimates.
Estimates based on conversion at average rates of exchange for 1980, except for those of the Communist countries, which were
converted at U.S. purchasing power equivalents.
3
Includes the OECD countries, South Africa, and non-OECD Europe.
4
Includes Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, and the Netherlands, not shown separately.
• Not available
.
6
Includes Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and
Venezuela.
7
Includes North Korea, Vietnam, Albania, Cuba, Mongolia, and Yugoslavia, not shown separately.
Sources: Department of Commerce, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and
Council of Economic Advisers.
285
TABLE B-110.—Industrial production and consumer prices, major industrial countries, 1960-82
[1967-100]
United
States
Year or quarter
Canada
Japan
European
Community1
France
West
Germany
Italy
United
Kingdom
Industrial production2
66.2
66.7
72.2
76.5
81.7
63.1
65.6
71.2
75.7
82.6
43.0
51.2
55.4
61.7
71.4
74.7
78.1
81.3
84.8
91.0
70
73
78
86
90
78.4
82.8
86.1
88.9
96.6
59.2
65.5
71.9
78.4
79.2
84.4
84.3
85,1
88.1
95.0
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
89.8
97.8
100.0
106.3
111.1
89.7
96.2
100.0
106.4
113.7
74.2
83.8
100.0
115.2
133.4
94.7
98.4
100.0
107.4
117.6
93
98
100
104
114
102.1
103.0
100.0
109.2
123.2
82.8
93.3
100.0
106.4
110.5
97.7
99.2
100.0
106.7
110.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
107.8
109.6
119 7
129.8
129.3
115.3
121.5
130.7
144.6
149.2
151.8
155.7
167.0
190.5
183.1
123.3
126.1
131.7
141.4
142.3
120
128
135
145
148
131.1
133.6
138.7
147.7
145.1
117.6
117.5
122.7
134.6
140.6
110.9
110.6
113.2
123.0
120.0
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
140.3
148.5
152.2
157.8
167.4
163.9
182.0
189.7
201.1
217.7
132.8
142.6
145.9
149.7
156.8
139
149
152
155
163
137.1
149.1
152.0
154.1
161.8
127.6
143.5
145.1
147.9
157.6
114.3
117.4
122.9
126.9
132.2
1980
1981 p
1982
147.0
151.0
138.6
164.6
167.3
232.5
239.5
155.6
152.3
160
157
162.3
159.9
166.5
162.7
123.6
118.8
1981:
I
II
Ill
I
V
151.8
152.5
153.0
146.3
167.8
172.8
168.1
160.7
235.4
236.1
241.1
245.9
151.5
152.1
152.1
151.8
158
160
161
161
162
160
161
160
157.7
160.1
152.3
159.8
117.8
118.5
118.6
120.0
1982:
|
I
I
HI .
IV »
141.8
139 4
138.2
135.1
156.1
151.9
147.7
243.6
239 7
243.5
151.9
151.5
148.6
158
159
151
162
159
154
161.0
158.6
146.6
119.2
119.8
119.8
88.7
89.6
90.6
91.7
92.9
85.9
86.7
87.7
89.2
90.9
68.3
71.8
76.7
82.5
85.8
77.0
81.1
84.5
87.6
90.8
78.0
80.6
85.4
89.5
92.5
82.9
84.8
87.4
89.9
92.0
74.1
75.7
79.2
85.1
90.1
79.0
81.6
85.1
86.8
89.6
1965....
1966....
1967....
1968
1969
94.5
97.2
100.0
104.2
109.8
91.6
96.3
100.0
105.3
110.9
94.2
97.5
100.0
103.7
108.0
94.8
97.4
100.0
104.5
111.3
95.0
98.4
100.0
101.6
103.5
94.2
96.4
100.0
101.4
104.1
93.9
97.6
100.0
104.8
110.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
116.3
121.3
125.3
133.1
147.7
93.1
96.5
100.0
104.0
108.8
112.4
115.6
121.2
130.3
144.5
119.3
126.5
132.3
147.9
184.0
113.3
120.3
127.6
138.3
156.4
117.1
123.5
131.1
140.7
160.0
107.1
112.7
119.0
127.2
136.1
109.2
114.4
121.0
134.0
159.7
117.4
128.5
137.7
150.2
174.3
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
160.1
172.1
185.9
202.5
221.0
205.8
224.9
243.0
252.3
261.3
176.7
195.2
214.7
229.9
250.7
178.9
196.1
214.5
233.9
259.1
144.2
150.4
155.9
160.2
166.8
186.8
218.1
255.2
286.2
328.5
216.5
252.4
292.4
316.6
359.0
1980
1981
1982
246.8
272.4
289.1
243.5
273.9
303.4
282.2
296.2
281.6
314.1
294.2
332.7
175.9
186.3
398.0
472.4
423.6
473.9
514.7
262.9
269.0
276.7
280.7
262.0
270.2
278.2
285.0
291.4
296.3
296.9
300.1
300.7
310.4
317.8
326.3
315.7
326.1
338.9
349.9
182.2
185.5
187.8
190.0
448.4
468.0
482.1
504.9
450.4
472.3
480.5
492.3
283.0
287.3
292.8
293.4
292.2
301.2
307.6
312.6
30O.3
303.5
304.8
333.9
344.3
348.2
359.8
371.0
376.0
192.7
195.4
197.6
523.7
539.6
562.7
500.5
516.6
518.9
522.7
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
• ...
Consumer prices
i960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1981:
I
IV
1982:
ll'ZI
III
IV
3
3
1
Consists of Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, and West Germany Industrial
production prior to July 1981 excludes data for Greece, which joined the EC in 1981.
8
All data exclude construction. Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
» Data for 1960 and 1961 are for Paris only.
Sources: Department of Commerce (International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance
Division) and Department of labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
286
TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, and hourly compensation, major industrial countries, 1960-82
[Quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Year or quarter
United
States
Canada
Japan
France
West
Germany
Italy
United
Kingdom
38
3.2
28
2.4
2.6
21
1.9
27
3.3
2.4
35
3.8
3.4
3.4
3.3
21
2.2
32
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.1
36
3.4
2.8
3.1
39
42
3.2
3.1
32
3.6
36
3.7
3.9
3.9
4.2
4.6
46
6.0
64
6.3
5.7
Unemployment rate (percent)1
11
.6
.6
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
70
7.1
5.9
5.5
4.7
17
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.2
16
1.4
13
1.2
1.3
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
4.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.9
3.4
3.8
4.5
4.4
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
14
1.8
1.8
2.4
2.2
4.9
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
5.7
6.2
62
5.5
5.3
1.2
1.3
14
1.3
1.4
2.4
2.7
28
2.7
2.9
1.6
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
8.5
7.7
7.1
6.1
5.8
6.9
7.1
81
8.4
7.5
19
2.0
20
2.3
2,1
42
4.6
50
5.4
6.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.0
1980
1981
1982
7.1
7.6
9.7
7.5
7.6
11.0
2.0
2.2
6.5
7.7
3.0
4.2
7.4
7.4
7.4
8.3
7.3
7.2
7.6
8.4
2.2
2.4
2.2
2.2
7.0
7.7
7.9
7.9
3.5
3.9
4.4
4.9
3.9
4.3
4.1
4.5
10.3
11.1
11.5
12.5
8.8
9.4
10.0
10.7
86
10.2
12.1
12.7
23
2.4
2.4
83
8.6
8.7
5.3
5.8
6.2
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
12.8
12.9
13.0
1970
1971
1972 .
1973
1974
..
1981:
II
Ill
I
V
„
1982:
|
||
III
IV
A
.3
13
1.1
.6
'.B
.7
73
11.3
Hourly compensation (1977 = 100)2
16.2
17 8
19.6
21.7
23.3
10.5
12.3
13.9
14.9 16.1
11.9
13.1
15.5
18.3
20.4
24.9
26.8
28.3
29.5
31.6
321
34.6
37.3
40.0
43.0
6.6
77
8.8
9.8
11.0
12 4
13.6
15.3
17.9
21.3
251
26.7
28.9
32.6
32.3
17.6
19.0
20.1
21.3
23.6
218
22.8
25.4
27.1
30.7
34 7
37.6
38.2
35.6
38.8
57.6
61.1
64.4
69.0
76.3
47.8
53.1
58.1
63 4
75.0
25.4
30.3
40.1
55 0
67.1
33.9
38.0
46.2
60 0
66.2
29.5
34.7
42.0
56.9
67.1
36.8
43.1
52.3
66.4
74.0
44.3
51.8
60.0
65.5
78.2
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
85.4
92.3
100.0
108.3
118.9
82.4
97.1
100.0
99.4
106.6
77.1
82.3
100.0
136.1
138.5
88.5
90.6
100.0
1231
148.2
79.4
83.5
100.0
125.6
147.5
95.0
89.5
100.0
119.1
143.1
96.5
91.8
100.0
128.1
168.5
1980
1981
1982
132 8
146.4
158.8
116 4
126.1
142 6
157.0
174 2
158.3
161.7
139.9
164.8
152.4
228.2
230.8
36.7
37.7
39.1
40.3
42.0
29.9
294
28.7
29.4
30.6
42 8
44.8
47.0
50.4
53.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.. .
'Unemployment rates, approximating U.S. concepts. Data for United Kingdom exclude Northern Ireland. Quarterly data for France.
West Germany, and United Kingdom should be viewed as less precise indicators of unemployment under U.S. concepts than the annual
data. Beginning 1977, changes in the Italian survey resulted in a large increase in persons enumerated as unemployed. However, many
also reported that they had not actively sought work in the past 30 days. Such persons have been provisionally excluded for
comparability with U.S. concepts; their inclusion would more than double the rates shown for Italy.
2
Hourly compensation in manufacturing, U.S. dollar basis. Data relate to all employed persons (wage and salary earners and the selfemployed) in the United States and Canada, and to all employees (wage and salary earners) in the other countries. For France and
United Kingdom compensation adjusted to include changes in employment taxes that are not compensation to employees, but are labor
costs to employers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
287
@FedFRASER