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FEDSBAkr/RESERVE BANK a RICHMOND c m a a Ju ly 1956 CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT CONTRASTS (Percentage change first five months 1956 from year ago.) UNITED STATES TOTAL CONSTRUCTION Residential Construction One-and Two-Family Houses Other Residential Construction Non-Residential Construction Manufacturing Buildings Commercial Buildings Educational and Science Buildings Other Non-Residential Construction Public Works and Utilities In This Issue C onstruction contracts presuppose an equivalent construction outlay. Construction expendi tures are an important part of the economic bal ance-wheel. Contract awards established new high records in 37 Eastern states in the first five months of 1956, but fell behind last year in the Fifth District. - - - Cross-Currents in 1956 C onstruction__ Page 3 Record Volume of Nonresidential Building ______________Page 4 District Building Activity Simmers Down ______________________ Page 5 Member Bank Business L oa n s: A Decade of Change ________________ Page 7 Business Conditions and P rospects_____ Page 10 Fifth District Statistical Data __________ Page 11 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond F if t h D is t r ic t DEPARTMENT STORE SALES 180 180 i 180 180 M A R Y LA N D DISTRIC /T O F COL U M B IA 160 160 160 140 140 140 120 120 i 120 V 100 *r\ f\j / v V 1949 100 1952 1951 1950 1953 195 4 1955 194 8 . A \ 1953 1954 1955 1956 IL h V Ve 160 140 140 A jv M v 120 120 100 100 (Seos onally Adju sted ) 0 9 ' 17 -1 9 4 9- 1CX5) 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 : 0 Vv \ K / rJ X aTA V t * f 1950 1952 180 w 1949 1951 W E S T V IR G IN IA 140 1948 1950 180 160 r 1949 i Department store sales in the District of Columbia in May were 5% higher than in April, after seasonal correction, 5% ahead of a year ago, and the first five months were up 6% . The trend of seasonally adjusted sales has been jaggedly downward since January. Growth since the end of World W ar II has been about the same as in the District as a whole. 180 160 r' \ 100 . (194 7-1949-10 0 ) 0 i 1956 r 100 120 A 'V V - A 100 V IR G IN IA 120 140 (Seaso nally Adjusled) Department store sales during May in Maryland, on a seasonal ly adjusted basis, were at the April level and were 3 % ahead of a year ago. For the first five months sales were 2 % higher than a year earlier. Growth in department store sales in Maryland has shown little progress in the last 10 months and growth since World W ar II has been relatively slow. 1 80 K 1 0 194 8 u , f W v h Sea* jnolly Adju sted) (194 7 -1 9 4 9 * 130) 160 r /vAJV 160 140 120 100 V T (Seosc nally Adju le d ) (1947-1949-1C 0) 0 1956 . A / 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 I 195 6 Department store sales in Virginia during May were at the same level as in April, after seasonal correction, 4 % ahead of May 1955, and the first five months were up 5% . The trend since July 1955 has been about flat. Growth since World W ar II has been about the same as in the District as a whole. Department store sales in West Virginia during May were at the same seasonally adjusted level as in April, but 14% higher than in May 1955; for the first five months they were up 10% . Sales in West Virginia have been rising at a rapid rate during the past year. Department store sales in North Carolina, trending downward slightly since the first of the year, were 8 % higher in May than April, 3% ahead of a year ago and the first five months were up 2 % . Sales since the Spring of 1954 have shown about the same rise as the District but growth since the end of World W ar II has been considerably slower. Department store sales in South Carolina in May were 5 % higher than in April, after seasonal correction, 7% ahead of May 1955 and the first five months of the year were up 7% . South Carolina has shown the most rapid rise of any state in the District since the Spring of 1954 as well as since the end of World W ar II. i 2 y Ju ly 1956 Cross-Currents in 1956 Construction a speech last May, Mr. Allan Sproul, retiring president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, noted that the economy had been “ in transition from a period in which consumer investment in houses and durable consumer goods was the dominant expansive force . . . to a period in which business investment in plant and equipment is the dominant force.” The over all result was pretty much of a standoff for the economy — with economic activity fairly stable at a very high level. A s expressed in another quarter, general busi ness activity has moved “ violently sideways.” In short, the economy has returned to “ rolling ad justment”— a series of large-scale shifts in the shortrun fortunes of major industries that have canceled out each other. A s Secretary of the Treasury Humphrey expressed it recently, a rolling readjustment is “ an adjustment here, an adjustment there.” Should one of the integral adjustments zig, so to speak, when it should zag, the net result could be a sharp decline in aggregate business activity rather than a pattern of stability. Rolling readjustment can also occur within a major industry. Construction affords a recent example. For the first five months of this year, outlays for residential building in the United States amounted to $5,751 mil lion, 7.5% less than for the same period a year earlier. Nonresidential building, on the other hand, at $4,847 million, was up 6.6% from a year ago. Together they were little changed from the total construction outlays of the 1955 period. upturn this past April. However, preliminary data indicate that there was a slight decline again in May. All told, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of outlays declined almost 12% from July 1955 to March 1956. A few months ago, when lending terms on mortgages guaranteed or insured by Federal agencies were liber alized and the Federal Home Loan Banks were given access to greater amounts of funds, it was felt that ad justment in the home building industry might be com pleted very shortly. This opinion was not confirmed by subsequent developments although recent levelingout of the decline in residential outlays is regarded by some analysts as an optimistic indicator. Promise of an upturn in this sector is held out by new housing starts which, after dropping almost con tinuously throughout last year, have held steady at around 1.1 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate) for the last four months for which data are available— February, March, April, and May. Another indicator on the optimistic side is the record of contract awards for residential building. Latest figures of the F. W . Dodge Corporation show that priv ate contracts awarded in May in the 37 states east of the Rockies rose to $1,094 million, 12% higher than a year earlier. This was the third consecutive month that private awards for residential building reached an all-time record high for any month in the history of this series. For the first five months of the year, the total of private awards was 7.4% greater than it was in the same period last year. Awards at Record Levels Mixed Pattern Whether residential building will complete its ad justment and re-emerge as an expansionary force dur ing the second half of this year was a moot point at mid-year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the nation’s outlays for home building peaked in July 1955 and then declined in every succeeding month until the small Complicating the analysis of the residential building situation and prospect have been divergencies between residential starts, contract awards, and outlays during the first half of 1956. In explaining the continued divergence of residential contract awards data collected by the F. W . Dodge Corporation and the Department / n R E S ID E N T IA L BUILD IN G U STARTS AWARDS (Total) (Private) P U T IN PLACE (Private) M il Million [ BilM o n .1950 1.0 , -------- 1955 1.4 V955 *• \ x 1955 .8 1.3 6 1.2 .4 LI '“ - - x .1956 ■ .*• 1950 1956 ill (F. W Dodge Corporation) J F M A M J ( Seas. Adj. Annual Rate) I•0 | .2 -ewnJ-----1----- 1----- 1-----1-----L. J A S O N D J 1 I .I I 1 I i I F M A M J J i 3 y A S (S e a s. Adj. Annual Rate) I O 1 I N O J F M I .1 1 I I I .. I A M J J A S O N D Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond of Labor’s housing starts totals, the company has point ed out that the awards data do not include the 11 states west of the Rockies. In recent months residential building in that region has lagged behind the national average, thus loading the Dodge totals on the upside in comparison with starts data drawn from the entire country. A second reason given was that bad weather in many parts of the country lengthened the usual one or two months’ lag between awards and the start of construction. Another point of difference has been the gap between the declines in starts and in outlays. W hile the num ber of new private nonfarm housing starts was down 17% in the first five months of this year as compared with the same period last year, outlays were off only 7.4% . The explanation generally given is tw ofold : higher building costs and larger and better-equipped homes. Assuming no errors in the data for starts and outlays and allowing for a 4.7% rise in residential building costs (Boeckh— 20 city average) from the first quarter of 1955 to the first quarter of this year, explanation of the difference between starts and outlays falls largely on the shift to bigger and better homes. Such a shift is most unusual for a limited period of one year. H ow ever, the recent survey of the National Association of Home Builders disclosed that the 100 builders con tacted plan to build this year 28% fewer homes to sell for less than $15,000 and 61% more than last year in the $15,000-and-over class. All told, this group ex pected to erect just 4 % fewer homes this year than last. Record Volume of Nonresidential Building upsurge in construction activity is at tributable largely to record outlays by business for expansion and modernization of productive facilities. If present business plans materialize, such investment will continue to be an expansionary force for the rest of the year. Last Fall’s M cGraw-Hill survey showed business spending 13% more in 1956 for new plant and equip ment than in 1955. Five months later, after many tentative plans had become more definite, the joint sur vey by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Commerce disclosed an increase in spending plans to exceed 1955 by 22% . This Spring’s survey by M cGraw-Hill of 1956 business-spending plans indicated an increase over 1955 of 30% . Although results of the M cGraw-Hill and SEC-Com merce surveys are not directly comparable, due to dif ferences in methods and coverage, the final McGrawHill tally at least confirms the sharp increase disclosed by the Government survey. In view of the weaknesses in other major areas of the economy during the first half, this is a highly significant trend. revision in the Government’s estimate of private out lays for this type of construction this year. Last November the Departments of Commerce and Labor looked for a 17% increase this year; in June they raised their sights to a plus 25% . Latest data available show that while outlays for residential building in the first five months of this year were lagging 7% behind the same period last year, non residential construction was running 19% ahead of the 1955 pace. Contrary to a year ago when all classes of commercial building were setting the pace in the non residential field, in the first five months of this year in dustrial building has been the star performer with activity 25% above that of a year earlier. The rate of increase, furthermore, has risen considerably since January, so that industrial building in May was 17% above the year-end level and 35% above a year ago. Another impressive factor in the industrial building picture is the backlog of proposed projects. The En gineering News-Record keeps a continuous monthly inventory of projects in the planning stage, and on April 30 this total was 26% above a year earlier. o n tin u e d C The F. W . Dodge Corporation has reported that contracts awarded for manufacturing building in the first five months exceeded the total for the same period of 1955 by 39% . Interestingly, the floor area involved was 45% greater than in the 1955 period. The Engineering N ews-Record’s reports on contract awards show that for the first 25 weeks of this year, industrial awards were booming— 130% higher than a year ago. The disparity between this and the Dodge figure is due to differences in geographic coverage, size of projects reported, and timing of contracts. Timing probably accounts for the major share of the difference between the two series. Engineering News-Record reports the total value of a contract at the time of its award, with the whole project going into the figures right away. Dodge, on the other hand, reports awards piecemeal, as sections of the project are started or as subcontractors enter the picture. Record Commercial Construction The backlog of proposed commercial building pro jects has also been swelling despite the heavy flow of projects out of the planning stage and into contract awards. A s of April 30 it was 23% higher than on that date in 1955. Engineering N ews-Record reports that for the eight months to that date, the inflow of new proposed commercial projects exceeded the volume This, together with a favorable trend of contract awards for industrial building, has led to an upward i 4 Y July 1956 j/fansujL Seasonally adjusted outlays for stores, restaurants, and garages in the first four months of this year, while 28% greater than in the same period of 1955, were practically unchanged from the last four months of 1955. This may have been a factor in the recent re vision of the 1956 estimate from a plus 17% to a plus 13% . Since the volume of store construction is influ enced by the volume of new housing, an extension of the adjustment in new residential building over a longer period of time than is currently envisaged could have a pronounced impact on commercial building. Outlays for new construction in the other major category of commercial building, office buildings and warehouses, increased 19% in the first four months of this year over the same period last year and almost 3% over the last four months of 1955, the strongest part of that year. In view of this strength, the original G ov ernment estimate of a 9 % increase in such outlays this year has been boosted to 12%. leaving the backlog and becoming contract awards. Contract awards for commercial building as reported by Engineering News-Record increased 18% in the first 25 weeks of this year, and on the Dodge scoreboard they were up 16% in the first five months compared with the same period of 1955. The significance of these gains is highlighted by the fact that these comparisons are being made with the strongest part of 1955. On outlays for commercial buildings erected this year, the record shows that such expenditures in the first five months exceeded the rate for the comparable period of 1955 by 22% . Compared with the last five months of 1955, however, outlays, seasonally adjusted, were only 1.7% higher. In their June revision of construct ion estimates for 1956, the Departments of Commerce and Labor evidently took such movements into con sideration in changing the original estimate of a 14% gain for the year to 12.5%. District Building Activity Simmers Down confined to any one particular type of construction; it runs the entire gamut. Residential awards in the District were down 16% in the first five months of 1956 from 1955 compared with a gain of 9 % in the nation. Furthermore, all states in the District, except W est Virginia, showed declines. W est Virginia recorded a small increase. Nonresidential awards in the District were down 15% compared with a national increase of 16% . In this area, Virginia increased slightly from a year ago, and South Carolina showed a 19% ga in ; other states declined from 12% in Maryland to 61% in the District of Columbia. Contract awards for public works and utilities in the first five months of 1956 were down 2% from a year ago in the Fifth District compared with an increase of 20% in the United States. South Carolina increased 22% ; Virginia, 7% ; and W est Virginia more than tripled, but other states showed losses ranging from 21% to 32% . O f the nonresidential components, commercial build ings in the District in the first five months of 1956 de clined 14% from a year ago compared with a 15% in crease in the nation. In this type of construction, V ir ginia was 16% ahead of a year ago and the District of Columbia 5% ; other states showed losses ranging from 10% in W est Virginia to 37% in South Carolina. h e construction industry has played an important part in establishing the economy of the Fifth Dis trict in 1955 and early 1956 at an all-time high level— a more important part, in fact, than its magnitude in dol lars would indicate. Construction, along with other capital outlays, is an important balance wheel in the economy, for it utilizes savings of people aand business concerns to expand industrial capacity and create a place for people to live. In balanced amounts, construction and other capital outlays give employment to an ex panding labor force and create an added demand for goods and services which keeps the economy dynamic and prevents stagnation. W hen construction and other capital outlays do not utilize the total savings of the economy, the result is a stagnant economy. W hen they attempt to use more than the total savings of people and businesses, they create stresses in the economy and cause inflation. Growth in the value of construction in the Fifth Dis trict since W orld W ar II has been at substantially the same rate as in the nation as a whole, that is, through 1955. From 1946 to 1947 and from 1951 to 1952 the value of total construction contract awards in the Dis trict receded somewhat, whereas nationally in these periods it continued to increase. Over the entire peri od there has been little difference in the growth in Dis trict and national figures. Based on the first five months of 1956 relative to 1955, however, Fifth District and national contract awards have gone in opposite directions— the national figure going up, and the Fifth District down. T Aggregate dollar awards for manufacturing buildings in the District for first five months of 1956 were at a level 8% below 1955, which compares with a 39% na tional increase. In this type of construction, increases were shown in Virginia ( 9 5 % ) , the District of Colum bia (1 0 9 % ), and South Carolina ( 6 0 % ) . Declines of 25% in Maryland, 50% in W est Virginia, and 30% In this same comparison, total contract awards in the Fifth District were down 13% compared with a 13% rise for the nation. The District decline is not i 5 y Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in North Carolina more than offset the above increases. Contract awards for educational buildings in the Dis trict dropped 15% in the first five months of 1956 com pared with those months of 1955; nationally they rose 12%. The school integration issue appears to have little to do with these changes, for the declines occurred most substantially in Maryland, down 32% ; the Dis trict of Columbia, down 61% ; and W est Virginia, down 54% . Virginia dropped 21% , but North Carolina was up 2 4% , and South Carolina was up 14% . “ All other” nonresidential contract awards took the worst beating of any group, except “ other” residential, in the first five months of 1956 relative to a year earlier — off 20% . Nationally, awards for this type of con struction were up 3 % . In this sector Maryland show ed an 81% increase, South Carolina 41% , and Virginia 1% ; but other states were down, ranging from 24% in North Carolina to 79% in the District of Columbia. The reason for divergent trends in the District as compared with the United States is not readily forth coming. The Dodge figures for 37 eastern states show an increase of 13% in total awards, with all but three areas showing increases. T w o fairly important areas, Middle Atlantic down 13% and Southeast up 3 % , give some toning down in the aggregate increase. The St. Louis district also dropped 12% and the Kansas City district 13% , while the large percentage increases came in the Pittsburgh, upstate New York, and Cleveland areas. All areas except three, however, showed in creases ranging from 3% to 78% , with most of them in good but moderate percentage increases. Possibly the District’s construction decline is associated with the current softness in its far-flung textile industries and in the synthetic fiber chemical industries or in the lack of growth in other District industries in the past few years. This, however, does not seem to have had any noticeable direct effect on expansion of newer in dustries and these are largely responsible for holding contract awards for manufacturing building in the first five months of 1956 only 8% below similar months of 1955. Construction in Perspective By almost any measuring stick, the construction in dustry has risen much faster than the economy as a whole in the postwar period. Perhaps the best yard stick to measure the District economy is personal in come which, on a national basis, closely approximates changes in the gross national product. Personal income between 1947 and 1954 (latest avail able) rose 50% in the Fifth District while the value of construction contract awards in the same period in creased 118%. This may not be a fair comparison, however, since the construction industry was retarded during the war period by materials allocation and may not have been able by 1947 to establish its position in the economy at that time. From 1940 on up to 1954 the construction industry grew somewhat less rapidly { 6 than personal income. Actually, personal income from 1940 to 1954 rose a sharp 274% while construction awards in the District rose 251% . From 1940 through 1954 (excluding the war years) contract awards in the District averaged 8% of per sonal income, varying between 6% in 1947 and 1948 and 12% in 1941. In the postwar years the ratio has averaged between 6% and 9 % , with 9 % in 1950 and again in 1955. This indicates that the 1955 level was fairly close to a balanced relation in District economy. Contribution of the States O f the District’s total construction contract awards of $2,329,000,000 in 1955, Maryland accounted for 35.3% ; the District of Columbia, 5.1% ; Virginia, 28.6% ; W est Virginia, 5 .9 % ; North Carolina, 1 5.2% ; and South Carolina, 10.0%. In the postwar period some fairly significant varia tions in the states’ shares have been witnessed. M ary land has varied from 27.2% in 1952 to 35.3% in 1955. The District of Columbia’s highest contribution was in 1949, 1 1.4 % ; its lowest, 4.2% in 1951. Virginia’s highest percentage was in 1951, 2 9 .4 % ; its lowest in 1948, 20.4% . W est Virginia has ranged from 6.2% in 1950 to 10.5% in 1948. North Carolina has ranged from 14.5% in 1954 to 21.3% in 1952. South Caro lina, excluding the atomic energy project, has ranged from 8.7% in 1950 to 12.7% in 1946. In 1955, residential building awards accounted for 40.4% of the District total. Nonresidential accounted for 39.9% and public works and utilities 19.7%. The nonresidential range in postwar years has been from 29.4% of the total in 1947 to 41.9% in 1953. The resi dential range was from 36% in 1953 to 46.3% in 1950. Public works and utilities made their lowest contribu tion of 16.5% in 1950 and their highest, 28.0% , in 1947. Breakdown in the nonresidential sector shows com mercial buildings accounted for 11.2% of total construc tion contract awards in 1955, manufacturing buildings 10.0%, educational buildings 8.7% , and other nonresi dential construction 10.0%. The 11.2%for commercial building awards in 1955 was the highest percentage of total construction in the postwar period; the lowest occurred in 1951, when materials allocation regulated this type of building and the percentage was 5.0. Awards for manufacturing buildings accounted for 15.5% of the total in 1946 and 3.7% in 1949. Educa tional buildings were 13.4% of the total in 1953 and 2.5% in 1946. Other nonresidential construction ac counted for 5.4% of total awards in both 1946 and 1947 and 14.0% in 1949. One- and two-family houses accounted for their largest percentage of District awards in 1955, 36.2% compared with 1949’s low of 24.6% . All other shelter provided 17.4% of the District’s total in 1949 and 4.2% in 1955 for the widest range in any of the construction (Continued on page 9) Zf&nM/$&K 6UfL July 1956 Loan Survey Results . . . Member Bank Business Loans — A Decade Of Change 1.4% of the dollar amount of business loans outstand ing at all member banks in the District and only 7% of the number of loans. In 1955, not only had the number of banks in this deposit category declined by one-third, but their proportion of business loans had been cut in half (to 0 .7 % ) and the number of loans held had been reduced to only 3% of the District total. The accompanying chart shows the relative holdings by each bank size group of the amount of business loans outstanding and the number of loans in both 1946 and 1955. It should be remembered, in making compari sons between bank size groups, that differences between the two periods are due more to the shifting of banks between size groups than to changed lending practices within the groups. In other words, a bank shifting because of growth into a larger size group takes with it a larger dollar amount of business loans than a bank just entering the size group from the next lower cate gory brings with it. T \ u rin g the eventful decade from the end of 1945 through 1955, member banks in the Fifth District added $1,885 million (or 3 0 .3 % ) to their total assets. O f this increase in total assets, $1,443 million was in the form of interest-earning assets, that is, loans and investments. A t the end of 1945, 6.6% of the mem ber banks’ total earning assets was in the form of loans to commercial and industrial firms. By the end of 1955, commercial and industrial loans by these banks had increased to 17.7% of total loans and investments. Commercial and industrial loans, at the end of the decade, were Zy2 times the 1945 level. This third report on the Federal Reserve’s survey of business loans at member banks as of October 5, 1955 compares the principal characteristics of this kind of lending in 1955 with those revealed by a similar survey undertaken in November 1946. The first and second reports on the District results of the 1955 survey were published in the April and June 1956 issues of this Monthly Review. A national summary of the findings appeared in the April 1956 issue of the Federal Reserve Bulletin published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Business Loans by Size of Borrower Business firms with total assets in excess of $5 mil lion accounted for one-fifth of business borrowing from District member banks in 1955, a slightly larger pro portion than they took in 1946. The smallest business borrowers, those with total assets under $50,000, ac counted for nearly 60% of the number of business loans held by District member banks in 1946 but had only 15% of the dollar amount of these loans outstanding. Business Loans by Bank Size In November 1946 there were 136 member banks in the District with total deposits of less than $2 million. In October 1955 there were only 94 in this deposit category. In 1946 the 136 very small banks held only BUSINESS LOANS AT MEMBER BANKS F IF T H FED ERA L RESERVE DISTRICT NOVEMBER 20, 1946 and OCTOBER 5, 1955 Banks with Total Deposits (Million $) | I I ■ ■ | Dollar Amount Held Per Cent Held Number of Loans Held Per Cent Held \ 7 Y Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond BUSINESS BORROWERS AT MEMBER BANKS FIFTH FED ER A L R ESE R V E DISTRICT NOVEMBER 20, 1946 and OCTOBER 5, 1955 L. 1 Borrowers with HH | Per Cent of Total (Tt>ousand*$S) I Dollar Amount Outstanding I Number of Loans Per Cent of Total 30 By 1955 the number of loans to firms in this size group had dropped to 42% of the total held by all District member banks, and they accounted for only 7.3% of the dollar amount of business loans outstanding. Again, it should be remembered that the growth of firms (bringing them into a larger size group in 1955 than in 1946) plus emergence of new firms during the period and failure of some old firms are partially responsible for the shifts in relative position of the size groups. 40 50 merchants from 1946 to 1955 than in the loans to other classes of borrowers. Wholesale merchants actually had a smaller dollar amount of loans outstanding in District member banks in October 1955 than in Novem ber 1946. They had dropped from 21.5% of the total dollar amount outstanding in November 1946 to 8.5% on the 1955 survey date. Retail merchants more than doubled the dollar amount outstanding at District mem ber banks, but they accounted for a smaller percentage of the total in 1955 than in 1946. In sharp contrast, sales finance companies and service firms showed an almost fourfold increase in their indebtedness to mem ber banks. Manufacturing and mining firms increased their outstanding bank loans by 2 y2 times over the period. Insofar as number of loans is concerned, re- The Business of the Borrower A n accompanying table shows the dollar amount and the number of loans held by each of the principal types of business borrowers in 1946 and in 1955. Perhaps the most striking feature of this table is the much slower growth shown in loans to wholesale and retail B U S IN E S S L O A N S BY T Y P E OF B U S IN E SS Fifth District Member Banks (Estimated) Business of Borrower All Businesses ___________________________ Manufacturing and mining --------------------Food, liquor, and tobacco --------------------Textiles, apparel, and leather --- -------Metals and metal products ----------------Petroleum, coal, chemicals, and rubber All other manufacturing and mining _ Trade _____________________________________ W holesale_______________________________ Retail __________________________________ O th e r______________________________________ Sales finance com panies------- -— ____ Transportation, communication, and other public utilities -----------------------Construction------------------------ --------------— Service fir m s-----------------------------------------All other nonfinancial-------------------------- Amount Outstanding October 5, 1955 November 20, 1946 Thousands Thousands % of % of Total of Dollars of Dollars Total Number of Loans October 5,1955 November 20, 1946 % of % of Number Total Number Total 1,187,400 278,217 60,492 82,543 38,297 19,850 77,035 325,433 100,962 224,471 583,750 105,124 100.0 23.5 5.1 7.0 3.2 1.7 6.5 27.4 8.5 18.9 49.1 8.9 496,894 110,518 26,662 23,519 18,999 11,381 29,957 211,646 106,573 105,073 174,487 28,892 100.0 22.2 5.4 4.7 3.8 2.3 6.0 42.6 21.5 21.1 35.1 5.8 77,898 11,233 1,991 1,384 1,918 1,662 4,278 34,159 5,448 28,711 32,506 727 100.0 14.4 2.6 1.8 2.4 2.1 5.5 43.9 7.0 36.9 41.7 0.9 42,497 6,282 1,069 792 963 836 2,622 21,605 6,018 15,587 14,591 445 100.0 14.8 2.5 1.8 2.3 2.0 6.2 50.8 14.1 36.7 34.3 1.1 71,663 89,134 81,149 236,680 6.0 7.5 6.8 19.9 39,313 38,508 21,616 46,157 7.9 7.7 4.4 9.3 2,588 5,298 11,687 12,206 3.3 6.8 15.0 15.7 3,160 2,553 4,260 4,173 7.4 6.0 10.0 9.8 «{ 8 y July 1956 tail merchants still accounted for almost 37% of the total in 1955, whereas wholesale merchants had drop ped to 7% of the total from 14.1% in 1946. Another noticeable difference between 1946 and 1955 business borrowing is found in the relative use of long term (over one year) loans relative to short-term loans. Manufacturing and mining firms as a group had over one-fourth of their loans with maturities in excess of one year in 1946 in contrast to less than one-fifth with these longer maturities in 1955. Retail and wholesale merchants, on the other hand, increased their use of longer term borrowing, although a predominant por tion of their total borrowing was still with maturities of one year or less. Wholesale merchants had 7.9% of their business loans in 1946 on long-term basis. This had increased to 13.9% in 1955. Retail merchants raised their longer term borrowings from 21.3% of their total in 1946 to 24.3% in 1955. Sales finance com panies, traditionally short-term borrowers, showed a sharp swing away from the small amount of longer term borrowing they had been using in 1946. In 1946 their borrowing with maturities of over one year ac counted for 7.3% of their total borrowings. In 1955 this longer term borrowing had dropped to 1.7%. B U SIN E SS L O A N S B Y M A T U R IT Y Fifth District Member Banks (Estimated) Amount Outstanding (Thousands of Dollars) October 5, 1955 Business of Borrower All Businesses__________________ Manufacturing and mining ____ Food, liquor, and tobacco __ Textiles, apparel, and leather Metals and metal products __ Petroleum, coal, chemicals, and rubber _________________ All other manufacturing and mining _____________________ Trade ___________________________ Wholesale ____________________ Retail ___ ____________________ Other ____________ _____________ Sales finance companies _____ Transportation, communica tion, and other public util ities ..... ................................... Construction _____ __ _ _ _____ Service firms _________________ All other nonfinancial _______ Per cent of Industry Total October 5, 1955 November 20, 1946 Short-term (one year or less) Long-term (over one year) 22.8 19.4 12.4 17.2 20.8 76.6 73.4 70.0 75.6 72.3 23.4 26.6 30.0 24.4 27.7 84.4 15.6 92.9 7.1 72.7 78.9 86.1 75.7 74.6 98.3 27.3 21.1 13.9 24.3 25.4 1.7 67.9 85.4 92.1 78.7 67.9 92.7 32.1 14.6 7.9 21.3 32.1 7.3 44.4 85.8 61.2 73.5 55.6 14.2 38.8 26.5 39.5 85.3 55.0 68.2 60.5 14.7 45.0 31.8 Short-term (one year or less) Long-term (over one year) 916,510 224,321 52,965 68,316 30,321 270,890 53,895 7,527 14,227 7,975 380,728 81,104 18,667 17,778 13,736 116,165 29,414 7,995 5,739 5,264 77.2 80.6 87.6 82.8 79.2 16,749 3,101 10,569 811 55,970 256,912 86,962 169,950 435,277 103,311 21,065 68,522 14,000 54,522 148,473 1,813 20,354 180,832 98,148 82,684 118,550 26,795 9,603 30,814 8,425 22,389 55,937 2,098 31,798 76,477 49,661 174,031 39,865 12,657 31,488 62,650 15,547 32,839 11,883 31,486 23,767 5,670 9,733 14,671 Long-term (over one year) November 20, 1946 Short-term (one year or less) Long-term (over one year) Short-term (one year or less) District Building Activity Simmers Down (Continued from page 6) be just what has happened. segments. The variation shown in this analysis of various types of construction activity and how they have fared seems to indicate that construction’s prime characteristic is irregularity. Thus, variability by types of construction should be the expected rule. For exam ple: a company decides to locate in a given area, builds a plant, and employs its workers. First off, this gives rise to a demand for housing space to accommodate the workers, who (assuming no unemployment) had to migrate into the area, or leave other jobs, providing job openings for migration of other people. Expansion in the work ing population gives rise to a larger demand for com mercial facilities and schools and these are constructed in turn. Expansion of industrial concerns, commercial concerns, and population all give rise to a greater de mand for electric, gas, and transportation services and these come still later, providing the public utilities did not anticipate the original expansion. Thus, it makes sense that different types of construction move different ly in time as the requirements dictate. That seems to Em ployment Employment in contract construction in the Fifth District averaged 242,000 in 1955, an increase of 29% over the average employment level in 1947. Contract construction does not cover the entire field of construc tion workers, but it does cover about the only part of construction employment that can be counted and is an important part of the total. In 1950 the Occupa tional Census showed 335,000 workers employed in the construction industries compared with a contract construction figure of 205,000 in April 1950. The 1950 census showed these workers were 6.4% of all employed people in the District. The increase in employment in the first four months of 1956 over 1955 varied considerably among the states. W est Virginia led the District with an increase of 21.1% , followed in turn by Maryland up 15.7%, Dis trict of Columbia up 14.0%, Virginia up 12.1%, North Carolina up 1.1% , and South Carolina down 2.2% . i 9 y Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Business Conditions and Prospects improvement in business conditions in the Fifth Federal Reserve District took place in May. Improved business over April levels was wit nessed in retail trade, in mineral output, and in con struction contract awards. Output of the District’s factories, however, receded slightly during the month. Loans of Fifth District member banks rose during May but total assets declined, due mainly to a reduc tion in security holdings. Bank debits, after seasonal correction, receded moderately from their all-time high established in April. Electric power production in April was down 3% from March on an adjusted basis. M o d e ra te Time deposits of Fifth District member banks eased $5 million from April to May. Although sales of Series E and H savings bonds were down 2 % during the month, new savings commitments in the form of life insurance rose 4% from April to May to a level 18% ahead of a year ago and thus continued the sharp up ward trend in evidence for more than five years. New business incorporations in the District during April were 4% higher than March and were a sharp 24% above a year ago. Nonagricultural employment in May was higher than April in most District states, with nonmanufacturing employment more than offset ting declines at the manufacturing level. Construction Construction contract awards of all types were 12% higher in May (after seasonal correction) and 11% ahead of May 1955 thus reducing the accumulated loss for the five months to 17%. Strength in commercial and public works and utili ties contract awards were responsible for the rise in the over-all total. Commercial awards (seasonally ad justed) in May rose 29% from April and were 21% ahead of a year ago. This brought the five months’ total to 13% under last year compared with a 22% accumulated loss in April. Public works and utilities awards jumped 83% (after seasonal correction) from April to May. May was a booming 120% above a year ago, although the first five months’ total showed a 2% decline from last year. For four months the ac cumulated decline was 21% . The substantial upsurge taking place nationally in new industrial construction has not been present in the Fifth District. May awards for this type of construc tion, after seasonal correction, were 45% under April, 47% under May 1955, and the first five months were down 8 % . There was a fairly substantial upsurge in this type of construction in the last half of 1955, which carried over into January this year; but since January, awards for manufacturing buildings have consistently declined with the May figure only 31% above the com paratively low base years 1947-49. Residential construction reversed the April rise by dropping 6% (after seasonal correction) to a level 15% below a year a g o ; and the first five months were down 21% . The dominant part of residential construction, one- and two-family houses, showed a seasonally ad justed decline in awards in May of 10% from April. This level was 11% under May 1955 and the five-month total was down 14%. Trade The trade level showed moderate improvement after seasonal correction between April and May in both department and furniture stores. A small increase was indicated in passenger automobile registrations during the month for states thus far reporting, but the increase was less than normal for the season. New commercial car registrations for four states of the District rose 17% from April to May, were 6% higher than a year ago, and the four months’ figures were up 13%. Department store sales in May rose 3% on an aver age daily seasonally adjusted basis from April, were 5% higher than in May 1955; the first five months’ total was up 5 % . Gains in May were good in women’s apparel items and most homefurnishings’ departments showed large increases over a year ago. Radios, tele vision, and floor coverings fell behind last year. De partment store inventories (adjusted) were off 1% from April to May but remained 11% ahead of a year ago. This is the third consecutive decline in the inven tory level, apparently a readjustment designed to bring stocks in line with the relatively flat sales trend. Retail furniture store sales rebounded 4 % on a sea sonally adjusted basis from the April level and brought the May figure close to the March peak. May sales were 10% higher than a year ago, and the first five months of the year were also up 10% . Furniture store inventories, after seasonal correction, were 10% higher at the end of May than a month earlier but were still 1% lower than a year ago. Manufacturing Activity in the manufacturing industries of the Dis trict during May receded slightly from April on a manhour basis. For the three states thus far reporting May man-hours in all manufacturing industries of V ir ginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina declined 0.8% from April and were 0.4% under May last year. The decline occurred in the Carolinas, with North Car olina down 0.5% and South Carolina 2.6% . Virginia showed little change, up 0.2% , during the month and 1.0% from last year. Man-hours in the durable goods industries of these states were up 1.0% in May and stood even with a year ago. Lumber in North Carolina and transporta tion equipment in Virginia were largely responsible for the rise during the month. Man-hours in nondurable goods industries of these { 10 y July 1956 states were down 1.4% from April to May, to a point slightly (0 .5 % ) under a year ago. Each of the states showed a modest decline during the month, leaving Virginia 1.5% above a year ago, North Carolina down 0.6% , and South Carolina down 1.8%. Cotton consumption in Fifth District mills during May was off a mere 2% (after seasonal correction) from April and remained 2% ahead of May 1955. For the first five months total consumption was actually 6% higher than a year ago. Selected cutbacks in operat ions were noted early in June, and a few shutdowns oc curred. Japanese competition has been suggested as being responsible, but it is probable that retailers’ and fabricators’ inventories, together with lack of intense demand at the retail level, are important factors. Cigarette production in April in the District was 6% higher than in March (after seasonal correction), 12% ahead of a year ago, and the first four months were up 6%. F if t h D is t r ic t Total assets of Fifth District member banks declined $38 million in May compared with April. Loans and investments were off the same amount but loans rose $23 million and security holdings declined $61 million. Reserves, cash, and bank balances slipped $3 million and other assets rose $3 million. A t the end of May, deposits were down $73 million, with demand deposits off $68 million and time deposits, $5 million. Borrowings increased $27 million during the month and capital accounts were $11 million higher while other liabilities declined $3 million. Business loans (weekly reporting member banks) made a new high in the third week of June and con sumer loans, after showing some irregularity, were near their all-time high on that date. Real estate loans have been creeping upward and are again approaching the high point established last Fall. b a n k in g D E B IT S T O D E M A N D D E P O S IT A C C O U N T S * (000 omitted) 5 Months May May 5 Months 1955 1956 1956 1955 District of Columbia Washington ______ $1,498,124 $1,331,990 $ 7,490,741 $ 6,567,237 Maryland 7,672,741 Baltimore ____ ____ 1,785,137 1,640,070 8,564,369 120,717 28,620 27,352 Cumberland ______ 132,517 114,238 128,563 Frederick _________ 28,151 24,021 211,852 H agerstow n ______ 48,799 45,442 235,198 Salisbury** ______ 37,820 35,941 163,742 176,456 8,119,548 1,736,885 Total 4 C ities___ 1,890,707 9,060,647 North Carolina Asheville ......... 359,510 327,563 74,728 62,817 2,005,464 Charlotte _ ___ 2,230,769 435,030 407,719 Durham ____ 422,450 395,967 83,867 81,436 Greensboro 170,401 802,431 716,296 144,469 246,054 High Point** 277,030 55,991 48,333 Kinston _______ ___ 110,976 111,057 22,081 21,487 Raleigh ___ 185,209 1,172,388 1,057,238 ___ 215,205 Wilmington 258,612 53,922 50,898 263,636 Wilson 19,034 104,369 101,350 ___ 19,739 Winston-Salem __ 184,942 835,028 167,326 951,517 Total 9 Cities 5,808,575 1,259,915 1,140,395 6,418,046 South Carolina Charleston . _ _ 92,819 82,443 460,655 413,905 Columbia _____ 193,003 181,744 982,395 877,875 Greenville _____ 143,564 124,236 719,491 629,330 Spartanburg 70,563 63,922 350,809 326,199 Total 4 Cities 499,949 452,345 2,513,350 2,247,309 Virginia Charlottesville 40,360 37,309 188,531 179,778 Danville ______ 41,977 36,210 213,954 191,887 Lynchburg 62,000 52,731 307,647 261,789 Newport News 57,139 65,876 311,269 270,547 Norfolk _______ ___ 326,495 288,839 1,540,479 1,403,764 P ortsm outh ______ 39,263 36,586 188,946 178,463 Richmond _____ 710,421 637,604 3,442,337 3,180,598 Roanoke ____ . 163,529 131,204 757,396 628,241 Total 8 Cities 1,449,921 1,277,622 6,950,559 6,295,067 W est Virginia Bluefield . . 60,147 43,369 282,264 214,994 Charleston ____ _ 193,322 165,157 910,514 844,071 Clarksburg 41,599 34,907 201,211 175,514 Huntington __ ____ 88,511 80,195r 426,584 395,884r Parkersburg 37,678 32,238 182,771 156,056 Total 5 Cities ___ 421,257 2,003,344 355,866 1,786,519 District Totals $7,019,873 $6,295,103r $34,436,687 $30,824,255r * Interbank and U. S. Government accounts excluded. ** Not included in District Totals, r Revised. Banking s t a t is t ic s W E E K L Y R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S (000 omitted) Change in Amount from June 15, May 16, 1955 1956 + 177,092 4,264 + June 13, Items 1956 Total Loans ____________________ $1 ,812,294** 831,249 — Real Estate L o a n s __________ 334,277 All Other L o a n s _________ ____ 672,505 Total Security H o ld in gs______ 1 ,638,707 + + + 5,227 761 8,934 51,972 + 99,250 + 12,542 + 68,823 — 105,561 U . S. Treasury Bills .............. 89,126 U. S. Treasury Certificates _ 18,118 U. S. Treasury N o te s ________ 295,586 U. S. Treasury Bonds . 967,850 Other Bonds, Stocks & Secur. 268,027 369,352 Cash Items in Process of Col. _ Due from Banks ______ _ __ 181,885* Currency and Coin ....................... 79,522 Reserve with F. R. Banks _ 521,012 Other Assets ___________________ 74,273 Total Assets __________________ $4 ,677,045 + 48,916 2,662 + 7,589 + — 8,569 1,374 + — 4,739 + 13,395 + 3,561 — 8,278 + 2,000 + 62,175 + 14,945 — 4,340 — 69,333 — 46,257 — 576 — 2,528 + 1,182 + 3,536 + 9,236 + 7,057 + 90,014 + 74,944 + + + + + 65,288 _ — 5,560 2,255 3,305 Bus. & Agric. .______________ Total Demand Deposits ..........__$3 ,528,505 Deposits Deposits Deposits Deposits Certified of of of of & Individuals _____ 2,670,065 U. S. Government 103,071 State & Local Gov. 230,047 Banks ..................... 463,822* Officers’ Checks _ 61,500 +106,743 — 40,296 + 11,847 + 4,418 — 7,768 754,832 679,888 74,944 — Liabilities for Borrowed Money 10,500 46,830 All Other Liabilities ..... ......... Capital Accounts ........................... 336,378 Total Liabilities __ ______ $4 ,677,045 _ — Total Time D eposits___________ Deposits of Individuals_____ Other Time Deposits _ _ + — 4,822 407 5,229 6,300 3,224 + 1,577 + 62,175 * Net figures, reciprocal balances being eliminated. ** Less losses for bad debts. { 11 I* 37,622 12,098 15,331 4,950 — 4,713 — 5,500 ! 8,290 + 27,496 + 90,014 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond F if t h d is t r i c t F U R N IT U R E SAL ES* (Based on Dollar Value) Percentage change with correspond ing period a year ago May 1956 5 Mos. 1956 STATES 0 Maryland + 2 Dist. of Columbia _________ + 8 + 3 Virginia ________________ .__ + 3 + 5 West Virginia _____________ + 13 + 19 + 18 North Carolina ___________ + 10 South Carolina _____________ + 10 + 4 District _________________ + 9 IN D IV ID U AL CITIES Baltimore, Md. __________ + 2 Washington, D. C. ______ + 8 Richmond, Va. __________ + 8 Charleston, W . V a ............. + 18 Greenville, S. C. _______ + 17 * Data from furniture departments of department stores furniture stores. + 5 + + + + as 0 3 1 7 5 well as W H O LE SA LE TRADE Sales in May 1956 compared with May Apr. 1955 1956 + 2 +25 LINES Auto supplies ----------------------Electrical, electronic and appliance goods __________ + 3 5 Hardware, plumbing, and heating goods ------------------- + 7 Machinery equipment sup plies _____________________ + 8 Drugs, chemicals, allied products __________________ + 1 2 Dry goods _________________ NA Grocery, confectionery, meats ____________________ +10 Paper and its products ___ + 6 Tobacco products __________ NA Miscellaneous ______________ + 7 District total ____________ +11 Stocks on May 31, 1956 compared with May 31, Apr. 30, 1955 1956 NA NA + 5 + 12 +17 NA 4 + NA — 2 +24 + + 9 NA + 8 + +11 — 3 NA + 2 + 5 + 7 — 2 NA NA — 1 + 2 2 1 NA NA NA NA +34 + 16 N A Not Available. Source: Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce. St a t is t ic a l D a t a B U IL D IN G PE R M IT F IG U R ES May 1956 Maryland Baltimore $ 2,922,771 Cumberland . 312,905 Frederick 813,585 Hagerstown . 129,296 Salisbury 76,124 Virginia Danville 559,287 Hampton 499,564 Hopewell 300,229 Lynchburg 405,825 Newport News 121,971 Norfolk _____ 9,218,013 Petersburg _ _ 305,650 Portsmouth _ 222,591 Richmond 1,964,678 Roanoke ____... 1,272,598 Staunton 245,630 Warwick 572,582 West Virginia Charleston 710,619 Clarksburg 157,945 Huntington . 574,160 North Carolina Asheville 256,309 Charlotte 6,585,771 Durham 939,100 Gastonia 708,200 Greensboro_2,382,955 High Point _ 541,360 Raleigh _____ ._ 1,556,321 Rocky Mount 352,681 Salisbury 625,160 Wilson ______ 232,550 Winston-Salem 2,188,249 South Carolina Charleston 188,129 Columbia 1,372,064 Greenville __ 529,750 Spartanburg _ 1,336,858 District of Columbia Washington _6,504,669 District Totals ..$47,686,149 May 1955 5 Months 1956 5 Months 1955 $16,046,590 148,400 471,970 615,865 62,432 $ 22,723,886 855,055 1,224,250 660,741 1,098,885 $ 43,595,882 801,691 1,168,175 1,330.885 1,032,599 250,110 461,954 319,544 549,181 237,274 1,682,681 164,000 298,975 2,446,657 980,510 168,300 2,020,609 3,663,243 3,758,444 854,558 5,273,835 1,089,672 13,905,301 1,260,050 1,451,739 13,903,113 11,719,255 1,273,916 3,118,122 3,342,021 7,155,082 1,610,707 4,095,798 850,026 6,065,359 1,567,400 1,549,815 9,445,765 5,087,353 1,369,355 5,291,565 709,178 185,151 529,355 2,524,717 703,432 2,105,094 2,890,149 858,464 2,021,226 247,790 3,609,029 564,116 1,030,050 1,009,319 674,290 2,107,865 369,934 125,695 189,100 1,638,613 2,920,746 14,895,362 3,719,271 2,895,950 7,354,011 2,785,904 5,726,385 1,623,562 1,255,125 2,600,075 6,785,468 1,324,077 13,570,975 6,151,989 3,621,950 4,627,424 3,787,019 9,343,879 1,652,645 506,163 1,670,775 6,589,017 507,404 1,105,826 1,101,598 39,255 933,171 5,142,720 3,381,226 2,485,986 1,282,625 3,788,940 3,376,746 870,700 5,067,360 $47,735,980 23,437,118 $181,109,388 28,447,620 $191,741,861 F IF T H D IS T R IC T IN D E X E S D E P A R T M E N T ST O R E O P E R A T IO N S (Figures show percentage changes) Other Rich. Balt. Wash. Cities Seasonally Adjusted: 1947-1949 = 100 Dist. Totals Sales, May ’56 vs May ’55 _ Sales, 5 mos. ending May 31, ’56 vs 5 mos. ending May 31, ’55 ______________ + + 5 + 2 + Stocks, May 31, ’ 56 vs ’55 ~ Outstanding Orders May 31, ’56 vs ’55 ---------- + 3 + 7 +13 +17 + 11 + 16 + 13 +12 + 15 8 + +21 7 + 9 7 +10 + + 7 + 6 Open account receivables May 1, collected in May ’56 — 31.4 51.6 45.3 38.6 42.9 Instalment receivables May 1, collected in May ’56 ~ 10.6 13.7 13.4 15.4 13.2 Md. Sales, May ’56 vs May ’55 ___________________ + 7 D.C. Va. + + 9 7 W .V a. +18 N.C. S.C. + + 11 6 May 1956 9 New passenger car registra tion* _______________________ Bank debits __________________ Bituminous coal production* Construction contracts _______ Business failures— number ... Cigarette production ________ Electric power production __ Manufacturing employment* Furniture store sales ______ Life insurance sales ________ 190 110 228 172 125 135 129 228 * Not seasonally adjusted, r Revised. Back figures available on request. Apr. 1956 May 1955 % Chg.Latest Mo. Prev. Yr. Mo. Ago. 174 192 105r 204r 153 105 127 131 193 111 124r 219 196r 176 99r 206 151 106 125r 128 182 108r 117 193 - 2 - 1 b 5 -12 -12 - 6 - 2 + 3 - 3 0 + 4 + 4 — 9 + 8 + 11 + 11 + 14 + 12 0 + 5 + 8 + 3 + 10 + 18