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MO N T H L Y R E V I E W of Financial and Business Conditions Mmm ___ \ F if t h Federal % Richmond a <^5 (I va. X " ’ N r ...... *4 r Reserve D is t r ic t Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond 13, Va.____________________________________ December 31,1947 Business Conditions F IV E factors stood out in the business developments of changing jobs frequently in search of better earning power. the Fifth Federal Reserve District during November They indicate further that some seasonal improvement has occurred in the labor supply following the close of the as reflected in seasonally adjusted indices. They were: farming season. Even so, there is not enough labor to a big improvement in the production of bituminous coal;operate a more than a fraction of a third shift, and manage moderate advance in department store sales; an unex ment is apparently reconciled to operations on the present pected decrease in cotton consumption; a marked decline basis. The production outlook for the next two or three in building permits; and a substantial increase in business months, therefore, is one of irregular movement not far failures. above or below the October level depending on the degrees The adverse elements in November were not of the sort of labor turnover and absenteeism. that give a handwriting-on-the-wall of coming events, but Employment levels in the District continued to increase it is worthwhile to examine them. The 17 per cent drop in during November in most states. A seasonal reduction in the seasonally adjusted building permits value from Octo Maryland food processing industries in October more than ber to November came from a very high level in October offset the increase in employment resulting from settlement and still leaves the November figure 40 per cent above the of the Bethlehem shipyard strike in that month. Much of same month of 1946. Then, too, a wide range of fluctua the increases in employment in November was due to sea tion is characteristic of this industry, so that one month’s sonal requirements, but some small additions were made drop of nearly a fifth could be just one of these erratic in non-seasonal industries. Several areas of the District, moves. On the other hand contract awards for one and however, are fully manned, and such small surpluses of two family houses have been falling for some months, which labor as exist are migrating to other areas. There are a few seems to indicate a slackening in the demand for this type areas where housing facilities are still reported as a retardof structure. And furthermore new apartments in this ent to new hires, but these are no longer numerous as they area have rentals too high to be carried by families with were a year ago. incomes under $5,000. When these facts are considered The department store trade level in November rose 4 the November drop in permits after seasonal adjustment per cent from October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the may have more far-reaching significance. index number having advanced to within 2 per cent of the The increase in the number of business failures, from 11 peak figure established in June 1947. This sales level in per cent of the 1935-39 average in October to 52 per cent November is indicative of a sustained level of demand, but of the same average in November, raises such questions as has not given indication that the consumer market has the these. How could a business ever succeed if it couldn’t strength to generate a renewed up-trend. Rather the sea do so in 1947? Why did failures rise so substantially in a sonally adjusted November sales level and that of the first month in which so few company fiscal years end? Are two weeks of December have indicated nothing more than such failures likely to have a tightening affect on bank a continued oscillation around a flat trend. credit ? Is it possible, with normal mark-ups above cost, Department store inventories normally decline from the that prices have risen to where a working inventory cannot end of October to the end of November, but these inven be replaced without adding new working capital? No at tories at the end of November this year were larger than a tempt will be made here to answer these questions, but they month earlier and on a seasonally adjusted basis the No are presented for your serious considerations. vember inventory index rose to about the same level rela The drop of 3 per cent in the average daily seasonally tive to the base period as shown by department store sales. adjusted index of cotton consumption from October to This means that the retail inventory accumulation which November is again as surprising as the failure of this index has been in progress since September will probably be halted to rise prior to October with the industry, then as now, unless a further upward movement in seasonally adjusted loaded with orders. Labor markets’ reports from several sales is shown. New orders fell substantially during No important mill areas may give some clue to this drop. These vember and this seems to verify the intention to flatten out reports indicate a substantial labor turnover, with workers (Continued on page 5) ANNUAL RATE OF DEPOSIT TURNOVER - F IF T H 40 40 90 30 20 20 10 10 0 40 WASHINGTON, D.C. 0 I\ i i 40 1 1 GREEN YILLE, s.c. GREENSBORO 30 30 20 20 W \ V V ^ 10 0 10 0 40 n— 40 l SPARTAN BUROL S.C. 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 40 1 I 40 RALEIGH, N C. 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 40 ~ 40 1 ~ FREDERICK, MD. 30 30 20 20 10 10 O J___L 0 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 40 i— i— 40 r ASHVILLE, N.C. BO 30 20 20 10 10 * a/’- 0 O 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1942 1944 1946 1942 1944 1946 MONTHLY REVIEW 3 The Use of Index Numbers 4. Bank Debits Bank debits, technically named debits to individual de posit accounts (excluding interbank), derive their name from accounting terminology. Deposit accounts are lia bilities on a bank’s statement of condition, and a debit to a liability account means that an amount has been taken away from that account. Now banks don’t go around just debiting the accounts of their depositors at random, but do so when their depositors order them to in the form of signed checks. And since checks are drawn against deposit ac counts for the purpose of making some kind of payment, their aggregates (reported by the banks as debits) can be used to measure the changes in total money payments for all purposes, except those made with currency or coin, in any community, area, or the nation. It was estimated some years ago by qualified authorities that over 90 per cent of the total value of money payments of the nation were made by check and less than 10 per cent by currency or coin. There may have been some changes in these proportions since the great depression, but bank checks are still by far the major means of making payments. Debits, therefore, afford an important usable measure of the trend of money transactions, and with proper reserva tions made for economically meaningless transfer pay ments and changes in savings and dissavings they would probably reflect the trend of the income of the nation or region. Thus the first use of the index numbers of bank debits is to give the user an empirical tool which, when used in combination with other factors such as payrolls, retail trade, production, and prices, will serve the purpose of pointing the current direction of movement of the national income or the income of a given region. The charts com paring indexes of debits and income payments of the Fifth District states show that the relationship between the two is not perfect but it is close enough for rule of thumb use to determine changes in direction, and sufficiently close to induce further research on the relationships. There are reasons why the debits figures should in a general way reflect changes in income or gross product, for in the main they probably represent individual or business transactions made for transferring goods and services. The fact that debits are made in amount several times larger than the end product value of the goods and services trans ferred does not alter the value of debits as an indicator of the income or product flow, for the duplication in debits’ values shown in the many stages of transfer of raw ma terials through the various stages of fabrication should bear a proportional relationship to changes in the value of the end product. The disturbing elements in using debits indexes as an in dicator of the trend of income or gross product are the checks drawn for such purposes as moving corporate bal ances from one office to another; checks drawn in payment for funded debt obligations; checks drawn for tax pay ments ; and those drawn in exchange for investment obli gations or speculations. At times, some of these perturbing elements can readily be recognized and compensated for in using debits indexes, such as payments made for securities during each of the war loans. At other times these perturbating influences can be recognized but their influence cannot be isolated. Such cases include the volume of checks ori ginating in stock market speculation and in the Florida land boom of the middle 1920’s. Debits arising from financial transactions are naturally of lower volume in the Fifth District than in districts such as New York where the large financial centers are located. It should be noted that there has been marked similarity in the changes in debits and income between 1933 and 1946 in North Carolina, West Virginia and the District of Columbia, while considerable variances occurred in the war years in Maryland, Virginia and South Carolina. It should be further noted that debits relative to the 1935-39 average in each state held at a higher level in the 1920,s than income payments relative to the same average level, but in all cases the broad trends were similar. The differences in levels of debits and income in the 1920’s relative to 1935-39 averages, as contrasted with relative levels of each since 1933, may reflect the stock speculation of that era, and it may be some indication of a greater importance of the swollen volume of currency in effecting transactions since 1933. The widening diver gence in the rates of change of the two series from 1942 to 1945 and the subsequent tendency to reestablish prewar re lationships is probably a reflection of increased liquid sav ings in the war period, and a subsequent increase in the utilization of these savings in effecting transactions. The second use of bank debits is in computing a rate at which deposit accounts are turned over. Since debits are the chec^ values drawn against deposit accounts it follows that the ratio of monthly debits to deposits adjusted to an annual basis would give the rate at which the deposits are checked out. What the foregoing sentence says is that de posit turnover is computed by dividing the monthly figures of debits by the deposits as of the end of the month, and the resulting ratio is multiplied by twelve. This rate of turnover is called the “ velocity of money” in economists’ terminology. 4 MONTHLY REVIEW These rates of turnover are shown for 32 Fifth District cities on page 2 of this Review. Two things stand out in these charts. First, a wide seasonal variation can be noted in cities where tobacco markets dominate the economy. ^Second, it can be noted that there has been a moderately rising tendency in the rates of turnover in the majority of these cities and this turnover increase has been greatest in cities where deposits have shown the largest declines since the peaks early in 1946, or where the levels of business ac tivity have shown the greatest expansion. The importance in the rate of deposit turnover at this time is considerable. With deposits of banks in general of this area either tending to stay at a flat level or to de crease as they have over the past year and a half, it would require a higher rate of turnover to permit further ex pansion in bank debits. The previously mentioned chart on page 2 shows that thus far the increase in turnover rates has not been marked for the District as a whole, but that some cities have shown significant increases. WinstonSalem, Charlotte, Columbia, and Richmond have shown the largest rises in deposit turnover since 1945; lesser rises can be noted in Charleston, South Carolina, Charleston, West Virginia, Norfolk, Roanoke and Baltimore; while most of the other cities show a noticeable rising tendency. Bank debits in the Fifth Federal Reserve District, as the chart of monthly figures shows, had seesawed around a flat level in 1947 until September when a very marked upward move occurred. This rise has been due to a combination of factors, and does not necessarily signify a change in trend. Retail trade revived in September after seasonal adjust ment, but neither September nor October figures have in dicated much more than a maintenance of a stable trade level. There was no startling rise in payrolls from August to September, though some small improvement was shown in employment and in fuller working time for several in dustries which had previously cut back production. There fore, the sharp rise in seasonally adjusted debits in the Dis trict in September and October probably reflects the trans fer of funds by retailers and wholesalers for purposes of rebuilding inventories at higher prices, which inventories had been allowed to fall too low for the amount of sales and sales expectations, and to those sporadic large check payments made by corporations or governments, the de tails of which can rarely be traced. There has been a fairly broad rise of moderate propor tions in the wholesale prices of the manufactured products produced in the Fifth District since August, and this will augment the income of the area in the industries affected for at least several months. Some offsets to the total Dis trict income are probable in some agricultural commodities, but on balance there should be a moderately higher over-all income level in the early months of 1948. Debits, therefore, will probably reflect this by holding at a higher seasonal level in the next several months than during the past sum mer, even though the force of wholesale and retail inven tory accumulation may largely have been spent by this time. Summary There are two primary uses for the statistics of bank debits, namely, as an indicator of the direction of the dol lar volume of business, and for purposes of computing deposit turnover. Both uses are important to the business anaylsts. The seasonally adjusted index of debits for the Fifth Federal Reserve District broke out of a flat seesaw trend in September and rose notably, and while the level for several months may hold above last summer’s level there is yet no indication that a rising trend again has been established. Charts of the turnover of deposits in Fifth District cities show a moderately rising tendency to have existed since 1945 in the majority of centers. The poten tialities of debits expansion occurring as a result of a higher rapidity of turnover are substantial, but neither the rate of consumer purchase, nor the rate of formation of capital of this District give indication thus far that a ma terial rise would be seen in the over-all rate of deposit turnover. 5 MONTHLY REVIEW PRINCIPAL ASSETS AND LIABILITIES FIFTH DISTRICT MEMBER BANKS AVERAGE DAILY TOTAL DEPOSITS* OF MEMBER BANKS Last half of Oct. % of % of U.S. $ thousands U.S. Maryland 1,026,707 Reserve city banks........... 650,847 Country banks ................. 375,860 .95 .60 .35 1,024,014 654,905 369,109 .95 .61 .34 District of Columbia 905,056 Reserve city banks........... 883,210 Country banks ................. 21,846 .84 .82 .02 898;324 876,782 21,542 .83 .81 Virginia 1,331,854 Reserve city banks........... 316,039 Country banks .................1,015,815 1.24 .30 .94 1,325,583 310,512 1,015,071 1.23 .29 .94 583,987 .54 586,935 .54 North Carolina 854,828 Reserve city banks........... 384,470 Country banks ................. 470,358 .79 .35 .44 851,088 377,284 473,804 .79 .35 .44 South Carolina 440,744 .41 437,041 .40 5,143,176 4.77 5,122,985 4.74 $ thousands West Virginia Fifth District United States (millions) 107,821 100.0 (BILLIO NS OF DOLLARS) Last half of Nov. 108,060 .02 100.0 ♦Excluding interbank demand deposits. Business Conditions (Continued from page 1) the inventory rise. Retail furniture store sales in Novem ber also rose from October after seasonal adjustment, but here, too, the sales index was still inside the range that has held thus far throughout the year. The November developments in the wholesale trades also bear out the fact that retailers inventory policy is one of caution and not one designed to anticipate a rising spiral of prices. Seven of the nine lines of wholesale sales available for this District show sales declines on an adjusted basis from October to November ranging from 3 to 10 per cent. Prices of most soft goods in wholesale markets rose markedly in November, and other rises are scheduled after the turn of the year including further advances in furniture prices. It is not likely that much of these increases can be absorbed by reducing retailers’ mark-ups, and therefore their full effect will be seen after January clearance sales. In the light of the trend of soft goods sales in the last sev eral months, it is questionable whether consumers will sus tain the dollar trade levels in the spring at seasonal levels comparable with those of the recent past. If such levels are not maintained nationally, the industries producing such goods, which are the mainstay of this District, are likely to feel the effects on their production levels before the middle of next year. BUSINESS INDEXES—FIFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Average Daily 1935-39 = : 100— Seasonally Adjusted Nov. 1947 Automobile Registration* ......... Bank Debits ................................. Bituminous Coal Production*.... Building Contracts Awarded...... Building Permits Issued............. Cigarette Production .................. Cotton Consumption ................... Department Store Sales............... Department Store Stocks........... Electric Power Production.......... Employment— Mfg. Industries* . Furniture Sales— Retail.............. Life Insurance Sales................... Wholesale Trade: Automotive Supplies**............ Drugs ........................................ Dry Goods................................ Electrical Goods**................... Groceries ........... :...................... Hardware ................................ Industrial Supplies** ............. Paper and Its Products**........ Tobacco and Its Products**.... Business Failures .................. ....... % Change Nov. 1947 from Oct. 47 Nov. At Sept. 1947 110 321 161 285r 300 238 141 303 252 241 133 295 250 Nov. 1946 287 109 296 200 237 152 292 298 215 134 266 229 -f- 2 H- 25 -f 11 + 65 — 17 — 8 — 3 + 4 + 11 -f 40 __ + + 5 6 5 302 246 Oct. .1947 125 313 144 317 338 253r 150 297 281 246 135p 270 257 4- 12 — 4 + 14 7 308 268 236 92 264 126 398 196 105 52 332 296 243 98 294 132 366 179 114 11 315 286 287 73 289 153 357 181 104 37 293 268 216 60 272 112 269 169 111 12 — 7 — 9 — 3 6 — 10 — 5 4- 9 4- 9 — 8 318 180 280 234 145 310 313 -L 3 7 3 + + + + + 1 5 0 9 53 3 13 48 16 5 A777 MONTHLY REVIEW 6 ASSETS AND LIABILITIES—MEMBER BANKS, FIFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (In thousands of dollars) 1947 Oct. 6 1947 June 30 4,368,069 1,351,682 105,280 138,133 9,528 4,240,670 1,263,342 2,732,310 537 100,297 134,715 9,469 1,553,475 783,108 119,301 1,391,244 708,965 103,272 1,490,508 739,344 110,966 418,447 2,622 131 229,866 347,707 2,991 83 228,226 405,636 1,596 127 232,839 46,076 731 45,522 685 46,540 537 2,671 1,184 18,061 2,673 1,146 14,658 2,760 1,045 15,012 5,990,267 5,696,597 6,082,290 4,272,425 3,328,116 298,026 457,763 4,196 4,000,850 3,196,542 34,804 20,834 302,610 375,928 4,041 4,432,140 3,267,195 328,724 21,920 269,338 476,418 4,926 76,900 66,091 63,619 Time Deposits ............................................................................................................... Individuals, partnerships, and corporations......................................................... United States Government....................................................................................... Postal Savings ....................................... ................................................................... States and political subdivisions.............................................................................. Banks in the United States....................................................................................... Banks in foreign countries................................ ...................................................... 1,320,773 1,282,069 14,396 193 18,716 5,399 1,313,603 1,275,520 13,687 192 18,685 5,519 1,275,500 1,243,688 13,861 192 12,167 5,592 Total deposits................................................................................................................ 5,593,198 5,314,453 5,707,640 Due to own foreign branches....................................................................................... Bills payable, rediscounts, and other liabilities for borrowed money................... Acceptances outstanding............................................................................................. Other liabilities ............................................................................................................ 11,597 1,541 23,431 3,230 1,137 25,125 5,840 1,065 26,914 Total liabilities............................................... -.................................................. 5,629,767 5,343,945 5,741,459 Surplus .......................................................................................................................... Undivided profits........................................................................................................ Other capital accounts........................................................ .......................................... 114,747 157,445 64,487 23,821 115,090 156,376 58,002 23,184 113,413 146,022 58,906 22,490 Total capital accounts....................................................................................... 360,500 352,652 340,831 Total liabilities and capital accounts.............................................................. 5,990,267 5,696.597 6,082,290 1946 Sept. 30 ASSETS Loans and investments................................................................................................... Loans (including overdrafts)................................................................................... United States Government direct obligations...................................................... Obligations guaranteed by United States Government........................................ Obligations of States and political subdivisions.................................................... Other bonds, notes and debentures................................................................... ..... Corporate stocks (including Federal Reserve Bank stock).............................. \ Reserves, cash, and bank balances...... ......................................................................... Reserve with Federal Reserve Bank...................................................................... Cash in vault.............................................................................................................. Demand balances with banks in United States (except private banks and American branches of foreign banks)....................................................... Other balances with banks in United States........................................................ Balances with banks in foreign countries................................. ............................ Cash items in process of collection......................................................................... Due from own foreign branches................................................................................. Bank premises owned and furniture and fixtures............................................... Other real estate owned............................................................................................... Investments and other assets indirectly representing bank premises or other real estate...................................................................................................... Customers’ liability on acceptances............................................................................. Other assets.................................................................................................................... Total assets........................................................................................................ Z,/OO,440 /< 4,525,888 1,051,315 'l 0A7 7Q9 0,Z4/,/o£ 92,850 124,599 9,342 LIABILITIES Demand Deposits..................................................... ............................................... ..... Individuals, partnerships, and corporations.......................................................... U. S. Government: War Loan and Series E bond accounts...................... . Other ................................................................................... States and political subdivisions............................................................................. Banks in United States............................................................................................. Banks in foreign countries....................................................................................... Certified and officers’ checks, cash letters of credit and travelers’ checks, etc............................................................................................................... | 107,424 CAPITAL ACCOUNTS MONTHLY REVIEW 7 FE D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF RICHM ON D DE B ITS TO IN D IV ID U A L A C C O U N TS (A ll Figures in Thousands) (000 om itted) Dec. 17 ITEMS 1947 Total Gold Reserves ................... .............$1,115,127 Other Reserves .............................. ............. 15,212 Total Reserves ....................................... 1,130,339 Bills Discounted ............................ ............. 6,545 Industrial Advances ................... ............. 34 Gov. Securities, T otal................. ............. 1,374,599 Bonds .......................................... .............. 101,900 Notes .......................................... ............. 107,556 Certificates ................................ ............. 500,099 Bills ............................................ ............. 665,044 Total Bills & Securities............. ............. 1,381,178 Uncollected Items ....................... ............. 352,137 Other Assets .................................. ............. 22,236 Total Assets .............................. ............. 2,885,890 Chg. in A m t. From 11-12-47 12--11-46 — 91,194 — 111,317 — 1,793 6,458 + — 97,652 — 109,524 — 15,714 — 18,687 34 4 + + + 32,526 + 45,938 + 50,659 + 56,698 + 53,852 + 40,143 6,311 + + 54,310 64,587 118,922 + 30,258 + 13,843 + 110,603 + :L44,0~>3 __ 13,548 6,535 + 21,457 + + 63,131 Fed. Res. Notes in C ir................ .............$1,757,991 Deposits, Total ................ ............. ......... ... 818,849 758,405 Members' Reserves ................. ............. 38,280 U. S. Treas. Gen. A cc............ ............. 20,036 F oreign ........................................ ............. 2,128 Other Deposits ......................... ............. 271,535 D ef. A vailability Item s.............. ............. 1,310 Other Liabilities ......................................... 36,205 Capital A ccounts ....................... ............. Total Liabilities ....................... ............. 2,885,890 + 17,566 — 41,704 + 17,156 60,353 1,700 + — 207 + 44,500 282 + 813 + + 21,457 — 28,964 — 2,938 6.207 + 2, <37 — 4,765 — 643 + 91,866 585 + 2,582 + + 63,131 C ON DITION OF R E PO R TIN G M EM BER B A N K S — 5th D ISTRIC T (A ll Figures in Thousands) Bus. & A j Real Estat A ll Other U. S. Treasury Bills Currency & Coin.................. Reserve with F. R. B an kOther Assets ........................ T otal Demand Deposits.. Deposits o f U. S. Gov.................... Deposits o f State & Local Gov.. Deposits o f Banks ......................... Certified & Officers’ Checks......... T otal Tim e Deposits........................... Deposits o f Individuals................. Other Tim e Deposits.. Liabilities fo r Borrow ed M on eyA ll Other Liabilities...................... Capital Accounts ............................. Dec. 17 1947 $ 796,535 389,468 168,041 239,026 1,794,373 20,965 162,752 108,474 1,382,939 119,243 245,200 186,271* 69,428 506,243 51,927 3,649,977 Chg. in A m t. From 11-12-47 12-11-46 h 143,864 + 22,813 + 18,925 - 79,178 + 3,239 - 46,836 — 649 - 17,850 — 64,064 -230,526 2,257 — 12,687 -1 5 1 ,5 ,5 — 33,816 - 42,921 + 8,067 — 22,845 - 45,3.8 — 2,783 + 11,625 — 24,964 + 42,208 + 5,300 246 — 2,459 + 3,500 + 15,283 + 18,508 — 2,727 + 4,176 — 50,818 - 18,516 $2,814,161 2,104,076 28,860 179,201 449,162* 52,862 603,897 584,089 19,808 — — — + + + — — — — — + — 2,200 18,636 211,083 3,649,977 15,706 6,375 18,463 2,571 2,617 3,944 13,747 13,632 115 20,300 2,125 1,060 50,818 - 24,677 + 89,406 - 149,191 + 36,344 - 11,338 + + + 10,102 - 6,010 + - 2,014 11,150 18,516 D EPOSITS IN M U T U A L SA V IN G S B A N K S 8 Baltim ore Banks N ov. 30, 1947 $388,799,340 Oct. 31, 1947 $390,772,905 D istrict Totals ................. % Chg. from N ov. 1946 11 Mos. 1947 % Chg. from 11 Mos. *46 659,690 + 8 $ 7,141,331 — 6 + 4 + 2 + 35 — 2 9,706,395 228,590 197,910 269,090 + 8 + 9 + 21 + 10 + 5 + + + + + + + 126,360 + 15 + 25 — 1 — 13 — 1 492,237 2,224,670 1,237,590 691,865 18^,636 1,092,804 368,740 255,798 1,280,507 83,452 11,365 50,121 — 8 + 8 + 8 + 22 548,234 907,801 764,305 459,234 + 1 + 15 + 19 + 21 2 20,124 21,669 24,020 218,856 + 10 + 15 67,001 22,049 111,228 32,521 + 7 15 15 6 17 2 32 3 + 7 + 18 20,905 44,988 38,532 29,335 164,086 19,721 401,269 78,551 — — + + + + — + 228,585 325,807 382,042 326,033 1,769,497 202,342 4,507,188 818,802 — 5 10 13 10 10 2 13 3 41,185 134,950 30,051 50,526 25,884 + + + + + 23 16 21 11 14 394,543 1,316,338 306,049 532,762 274,017 + + + + + $ 3,764,345 + 5 $39,437,642 + 7 + 15 + 24 + 18 + 7 + 5 + 16 22 14 22 15 17 + 10 COTTON CO N SU M PT IO N A N D ON H A N D — B A L E S N ov. N ov. 1947 1946 F ifth D istrict States: Cotton consumed .................... 381,297 415,238 Cotton G row ing S tates: Cotton consumed .................... 672,421 773,200 Cotton on hand N ov. 30 in consum ing establishments.. 1,604,107 storage and com presses...... 5,306,246 United S tates: Cotton consumed .................... 759,498 878,025 Cotton on hand N ov. 30 in consum ing establishments.. 1,858,676 storage and com presses...... 5,360,906 Spindles active, U . S................... 21,432,000 21,525,000 A ug. 1 to N ov. 30 1947 1946 1,531,190 1,668,412 2,664,039 3,057,881 1,797,561 6,131,953 3,023,763 3,487,069 2,118,065 6,208,001 3,035 1,437 4,4(2 ♦Net figures, reciprocal balances being eliminated. Total Deposits ................. . D istrict o f Columbia W ashington ..........- ...... ....$ M aryland Baltim ore ...................... Cumberland .................. Frederick ...................... H agerstow n .................. N orth Carolina Asheville ...................... Charlotte .».................... Durham ........................ Greensboro .................... Kinston ........................ R aleigh ......................... . W ilm ington .................. W ilson .......................... W inston-Salem ............ South Carolina Charleston .................... Columbia ...................... Greenville .................... Spartanburg ................ V irginia C harlottesville ............ Danville ........................ L ynchburg .................... N ew port News ............. N orfolk .......................... Portsm outh .................. Richm ond ...................... Roanoke ........................ . W est V irginia Bluefield ........................ . Charleston .................... Clarksburg ................... H untington .................. . Parkersburg ................ . N ov. 1947 COTTON C O N SU M PTIO N — FIF T H D IS T R IC T (In bales) M ONTH S N. Carolina 205,608 Novem ber 1947...................... October 1947........................ 222,035 Novem ber 1946...................... 224,537 11 Months 1947.................. .. 2,298,741 11 Months 1946.................... 2,352,190 S. Carolina 157,827 171,025 171,096 1,828,541 1,768,178 V a. 17,862 18,682 19,605 199,871 194,290 Dist. 381,297 411,742 415,238 4,327,153 4,314,658 S ou rce: Dept, o f Commerce. N ov. 1946 $376,973,124 PR IC E S OF U N F IN ISH E D C OTTON T E X T IL E S , IN CENTS N ov. 1947 C O M M ERCIAL F A IL U R E S M O NTHS N um ber Failures Dist. U.S. Novem ber 1947...................... October 1947.......................... Novem ber 1946...................... 11 Months 1947.................... 11 Months 1946.................... S ource: D u n.& Bradstreet 17 5 4 108 24 313 336 104 3,159 989 Total Liabilities Dist. U.S. $ 392,000 91,000 41,000 $4,474,000 404,000 $ 16.345,000 21,322,000 12,511,000 $195,549,000 53,243,000 Average, 17 constructions........ .............. P rintcloths, average ( 6 ) ............ .............. Sheetings, average ( 3 )................ T w ill (1) ......................................... .............. Drills, average ( 4 ) ...................... .............. Sateen (1) ..................................... .............. Ducks, average ( 2 ) ...................... .............. N o te : 92.76 131.59 79.86 64.74 97.61 61.91 Oct. 1947 N ov. 1946 89.96 125.10 74.35 79.86 63.65 97.61 61.84 70.99 78.63 64.23 72.72 62.53 96.49 61.52 The above figures are those fo r the approxim ate quantities o f cloth obtainable from a pound o f cotton with adjustm ent fo r salable waste. MONTHLY REVIEW 8 B U ILD IN G P E R M IT FIG U R ES C O N STR U C TIO N C O N T R A C T S A W A R D E D Total V aluation N ov. 1947 N ov. 1946 M aryland Baltim ore ........................................ ................. Cumberland ......................... .......... Frederick .......................................... ................. H agerstow n .................................... ................. Salisbury .......................................... ................. $ 4,728,880 65,725 64,775 24,185 87,930 $ 4,689,515 52,050 21,260 109,395 61,075 V irginia Danville ............................................ ................. Lynchburg ........................................ ................. N orfolk ............................................ .................. Petersburg ........................................ ................. Portsm outh ...................................... ................. Richm ond ........................................ .................. R oanoke ............................................ ................. 79,234 218,347 779,670 209,315 64,735 1,071,112 373,751 38,790 342,458 285,620 39,800 41,328 1,830,622 281,605 W est V irginia Charleston ........................................ .................. Clarksburg ........................................................ H untington ........................................................ 374,094 55,168 302,705 239,039 14,965 122,374 N orth Carolina Asheville .......................................... .................. Charlotte ......................................... .................. Durham ........................................... ................... Greensboro ........................................................ H igh P o i n t .......................................................... Raleigh ........................................... .................. R ocky M ount .................................................... Salisbury ......................................... .................. W inston-Salem ................................................ 135,356 1,558,470 928,554 405,485 169,535 511,400 304,850 124,600 366,794 97,051 659,781 317,300 218,778 101,230 111,626 59,800 72,575 137,444 South Carolina Charleston ....................................... .................. Columbia ......................................... .................. Greenville ....................................... .................. Spartanburg ................................... 110,082 392,025 208,200 93,080 60,145 48,940 41,800 71,390 D istrict o f Columbia W ashington ........................... ....... .................. 3,742,892 2,384,375 D istrict Totals ............................... .................. 11 Months ....................................... ................. $ 17,549,949 203,298,740 $ 12,552,131 162,892,164 S o u rce : F. W . Dodge Corp. D E P A R T M E N T STORE T R A D E Richm ond B altim ore W ashington Other Cities D istrict Percentage chg. in N ov. 1947 sales, com pared with sales in N ov. 1946: + 10 Oct. 1947 N ov. 1946 R ayon Yarn Shipments, Lbs......... Staple Fiber Shipments, L b s....... 62,500,000 21,400,000 65,300,000 23,100,000 58,000,000 13,000,000 Rayon Y arn Stocks, Lbs................. Staple Fiber Stocks, L b s................. 8,200,000 5,500,000 9,100,000 5,600,000 9,700,000 2,500,000 Source : R ayon O rganon TOBACCO M A N U F A C T U R IN G % Chg. from N ov. 1946 — — — — 22 1 10 19 % Chg. 11 Mos. from 1947 11 Mos. ’ 46 186,062 311,164,880 5,178,044 36,7€5 — 6 + 4 — 4 + 1 A U C TIO N TOB A CC O M A R K E TIN G S TATE S N orth Carolina .... V irgin ia ................... D istrict Total .... Season through .... Producers’ Tobacco Sales, Lbs. N ov. 1946 N ov. 1947 148,624,405 48,550,701 197,175,106 1,086,372,632* 152,246,567 51.242,982 203,489,549 1,105,348,446* $41.60 37.79 40.66 42.33 $44.30 43.23 44.03 50.14 SOFT C O A L P R O D U C TIO N IN TH O U SA N D S OF TON S N ov. 1946 9,849 1,050 135 11,034 37,501 29.4 —1 +3 — 11 Percentage — 36 Percentage + 44 Percentage 33 Percentage 29 + 4 — 1 + 9 0 chg. in outstand’g orders N ov. 30, ’ 47 from N ov. 30, *46: — 13 — 3 + 8 — 14 chg. in receivables N ov. 30, ’ 47 from those on N ov. 30, *46: +19 +30 +18 +27 o f current receivables as o f N ov. 1, ’ 47 collected in N o v .: 51 49 54 47 o f instalm ent receivables as o f N ov. 1, ’ 47 collected in N o v .: 31 26 32 28 Maryland Dist. o f Col. V irgin ia W . V irgin ia N o. Carolina So. Carolina Percentage change in N ov. ’ 47 sales from N ov. ’ 46 sales, by sta te s: 0 + 2 + 8 +12 — 2 0 Percentage change in 11 m onths’ sales 1947 from 11 m onths’ 1946 sales: + 2______ + 2 +6 + 6 ________+_4_______ + 2 11 Mos. % 1947 Change 154,400 + 48 + 77 18,348 / 1,796 + 18 174,544 + 50 563,392 + 40 31.0 N et Sales N ov. 1947 com pared with N ov. Oct. 1946 1947 LIN ES Auto supplies (6 )* .............. Drugs & sundries (10) *__ Dry goods (7 )* .................... Electrical goods (7 )* .......... Groceries (6 8)* .................. H ardware (1 2)* ................. . Industrial supplies (4)*.... Paper & products ( 6 )* ..... T obacco & products (10)*.. Miscellaneous (8 2)* .......... D istrict A vg . (2 12 )*..... + — — + — + + + — + 6 2 6 43 2 4 41 21 4 14 + 6 — — — — — — + — — — — 17 16 16 11 17 17 1 6 17 15 15 Stock N ov. 30, 1947 com pared with N ov. 30 Oct. 31 1946 1947 + + + + + + + 69 10 27 52 25 83 58 + 5 + 34 + 35 R atio N ov. collections to a cc’ ts outstand’ g N ov. 1 93 110 70 86 159 100 99 104 151 99 104 + 11 0 8 7 3 4 1 — + + + + + *9 — 1 0 S o u rce : Dept, o f Commerce. ♦Number o f reporting firms. R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E SA L E S P rice per Cwt. 1946 1947 ♦Includes South Carolina sales in A ug.-O ct. N ov. REG ION S 1947 W est V irgin ia . 14,587 1,857 V irginia .................. 159 Maryland .............. 16,603 F ifth Dist. -----U nited States .... 52,350 31.7 % in D istrict... +2 W H O L E S A L E T R A D E 212 FIRM S N ov. 1947 Sm oking & chew ing tobacco (Thousands o f lb s .).............. 15,165 Cigarettes (Thousands) ........27,332,849 Cigars (Thousands) ................ 495,401 Snuff (Thousands o f lbs.)...— 2,980 0 Percentage chg. in 11 m onths’ sales 1947, com pared with 11 m onths in '4 6 : + 9 + 2 + 2 0 + 3 Percentage chg. in stocks on N ov. 30, ’ 47, com pared with N ov. 30, '4 6 : RAYON YARN DATA N ov. 1947 % Chg. % Chg. fro m from Oct. 1946 10 Mos. ’ 47 10 M os. ’ 46 — 11 $231,039,000 + 61 + 17 + 2 64,462,000 _ 2 163,425,000 + 8 — 7 59,112,000 — 62 131,608,000 — 18 + 13 — 45 + 54 52,304,000 — 12 + 22 $701,950,000 Oct. 1947 $32,922,000 Dist. o f Colum bia........ ....... 4,680,000 V irginia ........................ 12,770,000 W est V irgin ia .............. 2,337,000 14,611,000 N orth Carolina .......... South Carolina ............ 5,048,000 $72,368,000 F ifth D istrict .......... ST AT E S 11 Mos. 1946 129,050 15,335 1,858 146,243 486,470 30.1 % Change + 20 + 20 — 3 + 19 + 16 P ercentage changes in N ov. and 11 m onths 1947 Compared with Compared with N ov. 1946 10 Mos. 1946 STATE S Maryland (5 )* ............................ + 18 + 11 — 2 D istrict o f Columbia ( 6 ) * ... + 2 V irginia (2 0)* ............................ + 16 + 6 W est V irgin ia (1 0 )* ................. + 22 + 8 N orth Carolina (1 6)* .............. + 15 + 7 South Carolina (1 0)* ............... + 30 + 15 F ifth D istrict (6 7 )* .............. + 12 + 9 Individual Cities Baltimore, Md., ( 5 ) * ................. W ashington, D. C., ( 6 )* ......... Lynchburg, Va., (3 )* ............... R ichm ond, V a., (3 ) * ................. Charleston, W . V a., (3)*,... Charlotte, N. C., ( 4 )* ............... Columbia, S. C. ( 3 )* ...... ........ ♦Number o f rep ortin g stores. + 18 + 2 + 19 0 + 23 +12 + 20 + — + + — + + 11 2 19 13 2 14 3
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