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JL a « ^ o 5b i 2l | E©@[ni©ml]© Projections " to 1990 U.S. D e p a rtm e n t o f L ab o r B u re a u o f L ab o r S ta tis tic s M a rc h 1982 B u lle tin 2121 i©®n©mie Projections t© 1990 U.S. D e p a rtm e n t o f L a b o r R a ym on d J. D o n ova n , S e c re ta ry B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s J a n e t L. N o rw o o d , C o m m is s io n e r M a rc h 1982 B u lle tin 2121 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price $6.00 ( This bulletin presents the latest Bureau o f Labor Statistics projections o f the U.S. economy to 1990. It consists o f five articles from the Monthly Labor Review and supplementary tables containing additional data frequently requested. These projections are part o f the ongoing program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for study of alternative patterns o f economic growth. For the historical input- iii output data upon which the projections are based, see Time Series Data fo r Input-Output Industries, Bulletin 2018 (1979). A bulletin on the methodology is scheduled for publication at a later date. Material in this publication is in the public domain and may, with appropriate credit, be reproduced without permission. Contents Page New economic proj ections through 1990—an overview.......................................................... . Brief summary of the projections............................................................................................ Employment and output............................................................................................ Occupational d a ta ........................................ Impact of assumptions............................................................................................................. Evaluation of past proj ections................................................................................................. 1 1 2 4 5 5 Table 1. Actual and projected civilian labor force based on three different growth paths, selected years, 1965-90............................. ................................... 2 The U . S. economy through 1990—an u pdate............................................................................... Major assumptions................................................................................................................... Aggregate dem and................................................................................................................... Employment and h o u rs........................................................................................................... 10 10 13 17 Tables: 1. Federal Government receipts and expenditures, 1980, and projected to 1985 and 1990, on a National Income Accounts basis................................................. ........... 2. Gross national product by major component, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1980, and projected to 1985 and 1990.............................................................................. . 3. Labor force, employment, productivity, and gross national product, 1955, 1968, 1973,1980, and projected to 1985 and 1990 .............................................................. The outlook for industry output and employment through 1990................................................. Summary of employment tren d s........................................................................................ Characteristics of the 1990 economy...................................................................................... Energy assumptions....................................................................................................... Final demand trends........................................................................................... <................... Industry o u tp u t..................................................................................................................... Industry employment............................................................................................... Previous projections for 1990.................................................................................................. Tables: 1. U.S. energy supply by source, actual and projected, selected years, 1965-90........................................................................................................................... 2. Gross product originating by major sector, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90.................................................... 3. Low-trend proj ected output changes for selected industries, 1979-90......... . 4. Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90............. . 5. Employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90........................................................ 6. Average annual percent change in employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90........................................................................ 7. Low-trend projected employment changes for selected industries, 1979-90........................................................................................................................... 8. Comparison of previous and current employment projections for 1990 ................ v 12 14 18 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 32 22 25 26 27 30 31 32 32 C©nt@nte=-G@ntisiu®dl Page Occupational employment growth through 1990.......................................................................... Alternative scenarios................................................................................................................ Growth among white-collar groups......................................................................................... Growth among blue-collar groups.......................................................................................... Service w orkers........................................................................................................................ Farm workers............................................................................................................................ Detailed occupations................................................................................................................ New data base........................................................................................................................... Differences among surveys...................................................................................................... 34 35 35 38 39 39 40 40 46 Chart 1. Job growth for major occupational categories under alternative economic projections, 1978-90 ........................................................................... 36 Tables: 1. Employment by major occupational group, actual 1978 and alternative projections for 1990......................................................................................................... 2. Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and proj ected 1990................................................................................... The 1995 labor force: a first lo o k ................................................................................................... Women provide most grow th.................................................................................................. The changing labor force ,1979-85.......................................................................................... An experienced labor force, 1985-95 ................................................................ How the projections were revised............................................................................................... Possible consequences.................................................................................................................. 37 41 48 49 50 54 54 56 Tables: 1. Civilian labor force based on three different growth paths to 1995............................ 49 2. Annual rate of growth of the civilian labor force by sex,age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to 1995 ........................................................... 3. Civilian noninstitutional population by age, sex, and race, 1975-79 and projected to 1995 .............................................................................................................. 51 4. Civilian labor force participation rate by sex, age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to 1995......................................................................................... 5. Civilian labor force by sex, age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to 1995 ................. 53 6. Labor force distribution by sex, age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to 1995.................................................................................................................................... 55 7. Comparison of the current and previous projections for 1985 and 1990 .................... 55 Appendixes: Supplementary tables on— A. Gross national product and components, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990................................................................................................................. B. Domestic output, employment, and hours, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990............................................................................................. C. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000............................................................................................ vi 52 59 117 1 Mew economic projections through 1990—an overview BLS has updated its 1978-79 projections for the decade of the 1980's to reflect recent social, political and economic developments; three scenarios, each based on a unique set of assumptions about the future, provide a range o f possible growth paths R onald E. K utscher underlying assumptions to determine which of the three scenarios seems most appropriate for their purposes. The economic and employment outlook described in the following articles was constructed as a regular part of the Bureau’s medium-term projections program. This program includes a series of closely related projections encompassing the labor force by age, sex, and race;1 gross national product projections, in total and by ma jor demand and income components; industry output and employment; and occupational requirements, over all and by industry. Estimates are derived through the use of an integrated econometric framework, and are updated by BLS every 2 years. The following articles are based on three alternative projections to 1990. These scenarios cover a number of alternative assumptions yielding a reasonably broad span of employment and GNP levels for 1990. It is like ly, but of course not certain, that the actual course of economic and employment development will fall within such a wide band. Also, while alternative assumptions are used for a few of the more important variables, it was not possible to produce alternatives for all vari ables. This would quickly have multiplied the number of projections confronting the user, and rapidly expanded the workload entailed in their completion. The three alternatives do not conveniently fall into “high” “medium,” or “low” categories. Therefore, users of the projections will find it necessary to review the Brief summary of the projections Labor force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics developed three labor force growth scenarios for the next decade: a high-growth projection, which assumes rapid growth in the labor force participation of women and the con vergence of participation rates for black men and white men under age 65; a middle-growth scenario with the work force expansion attributable mostly to women; and a low-growth path with only moderate increases in the participation of women and with the continuing di vergence in male participation between races.2(See table 1.) Some salient elements of the labor force projections: ® Because of past decline in birth rates, the labor force will grow at decreasing rates throughout the next decade. 0 Women’s labor force participation is expected to continue to increase. Women should account for 2 of every 3 additions to the labor force over the next de cade. ® While the overall birth rate for the United States has been declining since about 1960, this has not been true for blacks and other races. Therefore, represen tation of these groups in the labor force will increase over the next decade. During 1985-90, their rates of entry will be at least double that for whites, and Ronald E. Kutscher is Assistant Commissioner for Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 Table 1. Actual and projected civilian labor force based on three different growth paths, selected years, 1965-10S0 Growth path Total .................................................................................. Middle g ro w th ......................................................... High growth ............................................................ Low g ro w th .............................................................. M e n .................................................................................... Middle g ro w th ......................................................... High growth ............................................................ Low g ro w th .............................................................. Women ............................................................................. Middle g ro w th ......................................................... High growth ............................................................ Low g ro w th .............................................................. Actual labor force (inmillions) 1385 1975 1979 74.5 48.3 26.2 92.6 55.6 43.4 Projected labor force (in millions) 1935 1990 102.9 2.2 115.0 118.3 117.7 122.4 128.4 117.4 63.6 64.8 62.5 65.9 68.2 63.9 51.4 53.4 49.2 56.5 59.9 53.5 59.5 1.4 43.4 3.5 could be even higher under one of the alternative projections developed. ® The number of young people age 16 to 24 in the la bor force will fall by at least 1.5 million over the de cade, reflecting the past decline in birth rates. ® The number of people age 55 and over in the labor force will not increase as much as the 25 to 54 cate gory, largely because of trends toward early retire ment. 2.7 1.9 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 .8 .7 1.0 .4 2.9 3.5 2.1 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.7 Participation rate Actual 1975 1979 58.9 61.2 63.7 80.7 4.1 Projected 1965 39.3 77.9 51.0 1985 1990 66.5 68.4 64.6 67.9 71.1 65.2 77.7 79.2 76.3 77.2 79.9 74.9 56.5 58.7 54.1 59.6 63.2 56.4 77.9 51.0 rable equipment. In the low-path alternative, this component increases by 4.7 percent annually over the next decade, while in the two high-path scenar ios, growth exceeds 8 percent per year. Exports also show a large variation among the alternatives. ® The demand category showing the most change from recent trends is Federal defense purchases, which un der each of the three alternatives are assumed to grow at annual rates appreciably greater than in re cent years. ® The trend toward a smaller government share of fi nal demand is expected to continue throughout the 1980’s in the two high-trend alternatives. In the lowtrend projections, the defense purchases component of government demand is expected to grow sharply in real terms during the early 1980’s, and then slow slightly after 1985. Defense purchases are projected to stabilize at about 5 percent of GNP over the latter half of the decade. ® In the State and local sector, the largest change from prior trends is expected in the education field. As the baby-boom generation matures, the number of school enrollees should decline over most of the decade. Thus, growth of educational purchases is projected to dampen through 1985, with absolute declines thereafter. Economic projections. The three alternative projections for the economy as a whole used differing assumptions for five key variables: (1) fiscal policy, (2) labor force growth, (3) productivity growth, (4) the unemployment rate, and (5) price levels. Each of the alternative as sumptions for these variables and the more significant factors considered in arriving at the alternatives are dis cussed in detail in the subsequent articles. Proper evalu ation of the 1990 projections requires careful review of these assumptions. Among the highlights: G Use of alternative assumptions yields a GNP for 1990 of between $1.9 and $2.2 trillion (in 1972 dollars), a spread of over $270 billion. The 1980-90 real GNP average growth is 2.5 percent per year at the low end of the alternatives and 3.9 percent at the high end. ° The low-path GNP growth projected for the 1980’s is roughly consistent with the experience of the 1970’s. The high alternative GNP growth rate is closer to the path of the 1960’s. ® Among the assumptions used in developing these al ternatives, productivity (output per person-hour) shows the widest variation. The lowest alternative assumes 1980-90 productivity growth of 1.4 percent per year. The highest alternative has assumed annual growth of 2.6 percent. ® Within GNP, the component of demand most sensi tive to the alternative assumptions (particularly those related to tax policy) is that for producers’ du Annual percent change 1965 1975 1979 1985 to to to to 1975 1979 1985 1990 Employment and output Employment. Between 1955 and 1980, the total number of jobs3 in the economy increased from 68.7 million to 105.6 million, or by about 1.5 million a year; during 1973-80, annual job growth exceeded 2 million. Over the next decade, major changes in employment are as sumed under each of the alternatives discussed in these articles. Total employment is expected to increase by an average of 1.6 percent— or 2.2 million jobs—each year between 1980 and 1985 in the low-growth and hightrend II versions. In the high-trend I version, a higher labor force projection, combined with an even more rapid decline in the unemployment rate, yields annual employment growth of 2.4 percent between 1980 and 2 Uses of projections A wide range of persons and organizations use the bls projections. Many are interested in only a particular ele ment, while others use all or most of the projection com ponents. study conducted by the Education Testing Service of Princeton, N.J., revealed the Handbook to be the most fre quently chosen resource of counselors and secondary school students. The Handbook is used primarily in high schools, but is also of value to elementary schools, col leges, vocational schools, public employment offices, place ment services for members of the Armed Forces returning to civilian life, organizations which help the economically disadvantaged, and vocational rehabilitation facilities. National occupational employment data and projections are used at all levels of government, and by others, to for mulate education plans. Included are such agencies as the National Science Foundation, and the Administration on Aging, which provide Federal funds for specialized educa tion and training to ensure themselves of an adequate sup ply of qualified workers. At times such agencies have contracted with the Bureau to do special studies in these areas. Conversely, the Office of Management and Budget has relied on BLS occupational projections to evaluate the training plans of other agencies. And educational institu tions and State agencies engaged in planning college-level programs also use the data. The national data are an input to State and area projec tions. Such subnational estimates are being used by gov ernment bodies to plan vocational education and CETA training requirements. In fact, nearly all States currently develop their own occupational projections based on a na tional industry-occupation matrix. BLS data are an integral part of other types of occupa tional research conducted by private organizations, non profit organizations, universities, and government agencies. The industry-occupation matrix provides the needed occu pational projections for industry scenarios developed by others. Organizations which prepare vocational guidance materials also rely upon bls research underlying the Occu pational Outlook Handbook. Private employers use the Bureau’s occupational projec tions for a variety of planning functions, including the construction of personnel policies which anticipate possible labor shortages. And, producers of machinery operated by workers in specific occupations may find the industry-oc cupation matrix a valuable tool for identifying potential product markets. Labor force estimates. The U.S. Department of Labor, Congress, and the Congressional Budget Office use the la bor force projections for analyses in which the future de mographic composition of the work force is an important consideration. The Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bu reau of the Census of the U.S. Department of Commerce use the detailed labor force estimates for their own projec tions and analyses. Other executive branch agencies use these data chiefly in eeo studies. In nearly all of the States, bls labor force projections provide the framework for de veloping State labor force projections needed for planning purposes. Private users include market researchers, corporate plan ners, and others who build macro-models or estimate re cruitment needs. And international agencies are supplied the data for information and research. Projections fo r the overall economy and by industry. These estimates and their underlying data bases are used by Fed eral agencies in preparing budget estimates or employment analyses, or as a framework for more detailed models of particular interest to their departments. The latter include projections of the energy situation; environmental develop ments; housing, transportation, or defense requirements; and capital availability. Also, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development regularly uses the pro jections in The Housing Report o f the President, as does the Labor Department’s Employment and Training Adminis tration in The Employment and Training Report o f the President. Among international users of the overall economic pro jections are international agencies which monitor the future prospects of the U.S. economy, those interested in research methods, and those specializing in unique historical aspects of the Nation’s economic development, such as capital stock by industry, time series on output and employment by industry, or input-output data. State and local governments, area planning councils, cor porations, outside research organizations, and universities also use the bls data for planning purposes, as input to more specific models by locality or industry, or as a means to evaluate projections developed by themselves or by oth ers. individual elements of the projections— labor force, gnp , industry output and employment, and occupa tional requirements— may also be integrated into a consis tent analytical framework which makes possible use of the entire system. A set of analyses recently prepared for the National Science Foundation relied on this approach to de termine the implications of increasing defense expenditures and synthetic energy production for the supply of and de mand for scientists and engineers. (See Science and Engi neering Education fo r the 1980’s and Beyond (Washington, National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Education, 1980)). the Occupational projections. This information is used in pre paring the Bureau’s Occupational Outlook Handbook, a tool for career guidance; education planning; policy and pro gram analysis, evaluation, and development by government and private organizations; and research conducted by other organizations. The Survey of Career Information Systems in Secondary Schools, a National Institute of Education 3 1985, or slightly fewer than 2.7 million jobs a year. In all alternatives, the rate of employment growth slows in the latter half of the decade, to 1.4, 1.9, and 1.5 percent, respectively, for the low, high-trend I, and high-trend II models. This reflects the projected slow down in labor force growth after 1985. Further important highlights: ° G ° ® ° turing sector likely to enjoy substantial output growth are computers; optical equipment; construc tion, mining, and oilfield machinery; typewriters and other office machines; electronic components; materi al handling equipment; photographic equipment; and medical and dental instruments. ° Historically, the services sector has been increasing its share of total private output, but during the 1980’s, its growth should approach that of the pri vate economy as a whole, keeping its share constant. ° Output of the mining sector is expected to halt its historical decline as a share of the total private econ omy, as the expected rapid increase in coal produc tion outweighs minimal output growth in crude oil production and absolute declines in copper mining and nonferrous ores mining. State and local government employment is expected to grow less rapidly than total employment, largely as a result of contraction in public education. As in the past, the “other services” sector is expected to experience the fastest employment growth. By 1990, “other service” industries will ac count for over 22 percent of all jobs in the economy in each of the three alternative scenarios. Leading the advance among service industries will be health care. The largest number of new jobs projected for any sector over the next decade will be in the trade sec tor, primarily because of its initial large size. Be tween 5 and 7.2 million new jobs are projected for wholesale and retail establishments between 1979 and 1990. Manufacturing jobs will grow by 0.8 percent a year during 1979-90 in the low-trend version and 1.6 per cent in high-trend I, slower than the rates projected for total jobs but faster than recent growth in the sector. The turnaround in the rate of manufacturing job formation will be more pronounced for durable goods manufacturing than for non durables, reflect ing assumptions of strong demand for consumer du rables, defense hardware, and for producers’ durable equipment, especially in the high-trend versions. Five of the 10 industries with the greatest projected rates of employment loss are in the nondurable man ufacturing sector, reflecting either falling demand or rapid productivity growth. Occupational date The more important occupational trends: ® The shares of total employment accounted for by white-collar jobs and blue-collar jobs do not change substantially over the projected period under any of the alternative projections. The white-collar share in creases from 49.8 percent in 1978 to between 50.6 and 50.9 percent by 1990, and the blue-collar share changes from 31.8 percent in 1978 to between 32 and 31.5 percent in 1990. ° Service occupations continue to be the fastest grow ing major occupational category and should account for almost 16 percent of all jobs in 1990. ° Job growth in blue-collar occupations is affected rel atively more by differences among the three alterna tive scenarios than growth in other occupational categories. Blue-collar occupations are sensitive to high-trend I assumptions because they are concen trated in manufacturing industries, and the demand for manufactured goods is relatively greater in this version of the economy. Demand for manufactured goods is also greater in the high-trend II scenario, but the need for additional blue-collar workers is moderated by assumed higher productivity gains. ° Over the past two decades, the professional and technical category has been one of the fastest grow ing occupational groups. Although employment is projected to continue to increase faster than employ ment in all occupations in each of the alternative scenarios, the differential rate of growth is narrowed. ® Employment of managers and administrators is pro jected to grow somewhat more slowly than overall employment during 1978-90 in each scenario. ° Employment of clerical workers is projected to grow faster than the average rate of employment growth in each of the alternative versions. Only the number of service workers is expected to grow faster. Output. Projections of final demand by industry were multiplied by an input-output table to yield projections of the domestic output needed for each industry to meet that final demand. This analysis indicates: ° Agricultural output will continue to decline in rela tive importance throughout the next decade, reflect ing slow growth in food purchases. This slowdown will affect almost all of the food industries and indi rectly, the agricultural industries. ° Although the nondurable goods manufacturing sec tor is expected to show only moderate overall growth, several of its component industries should experience faster-than-average output growth. These include the chemical products, drags, apparel, and printing and publishing industries. ° Among specific industries in the durable manufac 4 ° Employment in the craft and kindred worker group increases at about the average rate for all occupa tions in each of the scenarios. Most of this growth is expected before 1985. general principle of extrapolating long-term trends in work activity was retained, the methodology was modi fied to reduce the amount of tapering5 applied to the projected labor force rates. This had the effect of raising the projected rates for women and lowering those for men. The combined effect was an increase in the overall projection for 1980 of 2 million workers— 2.6 million more women and 600,000 fewer men than computed in 1973. Impact of assumptions A review of the sensitivity of the projections to changes in the assumptions revealed that changes, espe cially in tax policy, showed the largest impact on the producer durable demand component of GNP, the dura ble goods manufacturing industries, and a group of blue-collar occupations principally found in the durable manufacturing industries. The results here are very con sistent throughout the durable goods sector. However, it would clearly not be warranted from these results to assume that the same sector, industries, and occupa tions would be heavily impacted by changes in other sets of assumptions. The expectation would be that these changes would be felt by differing combinations of industries and occupations. Economic and industry trends. In the mid-1960’s, the Bureau first published projections of gross national product, output by industry, and industry employment for the year 1970.6The basic model assumed a full em ployment economy with only 4 percent unemployment. Other assumptions were that the Vietnam war would have ended and that a housing boom would be under way. Total GNP was calculated from estimates of labor force growth, hours of work, and labor productivity. The projections of GNP and employment were within 4 percent of the actual levels for 1970. However, errors in the distribution of final demand, output for 81 indus tries, and employment for 74 industries fell within a broader range, with most of the larger discrepancies oc curring in the smaller sectors. The absolute difference between actual and projected employment for each of 74 different industries averaged 76,800 jobs, or 10.3 per cent, but the Bureau correctly anticipated the direction of change in 63 of the industries. And, when the errors were weighted by employment in each industry, the av erage absolute difference dropped to 8.1 percent. The largest source of error in the industry employ ment data proved to be estimates of employment-output ratios or productivity by industry. Second in impor tance were inaccuracies in the projections of input-out put coefficients, while final demand estimates contri buted the least to industry employment errors. For many of the variables used in the BLS methodology, it is difficult to draw a distinction be tween those “projected” and those “assumed.” No wellspecified model (except the Houthakker-Taylor model for the distribution of personal consumption expendi tures) was used for the 1970 projections, and variables were in general projected from extrapolation of past trends modified to account for expected changes. Events of 1970 negated the basic assumption of a full employment economy. The onset of recession brought the average unemployment rate to 5.1 percent, com pared with less than 4 percent during the preceding 4 years. Moreover, military involvement in Vietnam had not ended, and the housing boom did not materialize until 1971-72. The 1970 downturn undoubtedly distort ed the projections in the aggregate as well as at the in dustry level. One of the conclusions drawn from the 1970 Evaluatiom of past projections A regular part of the BLS program is the evaluation of projections when the target year has been reached. These reviews provide the BLS projections staff with in sights into the causes of differences between projected and actual values, such as unwarranted assumptions, er rors in historical data, or methodological problems. They also give users an idea of the uncertainties at tached to any projections. A brief discussion of the re sults of these evaluations follows: Labor force. All of the projections made by BLS in the 1952-70 period underestimated the actual labor force (age 14 and over) in 1975.4 All projections also underestimated the actual 1970 labor force, although the 1956 and 1959 estimates were close. For the target years of 1960 and 1965, however, BLS was reasonably accurate, and the misses fell both below and above the true levels. As in previous years, the labor force projections made in 1973 were based on the extrapolation of past trends in work force participation. The 1973 projection called for a civilian labor force (age 16 and over) of 99.8 million in 1980 and 110.6 million in 1990. By 1975, however, it was evident that underestimates could again be expected. The participation rate of women was projected to be 45.5 percent in 1990, but by 1975 the rate had already hit 46.3 percent, and in 1976 it reached 47.3 percent. The rate of men also was predicted to change very little. By 1980, it was expected to be 78.7 percent and in both 1985 and 1990, 79.1 percent. But by 1976, the male civilian labor force participation rate had already dropped to 77.5 percent. b l s revised these projections in 1976. Although the 5 evaluation was that, because the BLS projections are for the medium term and do not take account of cyclical fluctuations, it might be more useful to specify ranges for future output and employment. This is particularly true for those industries most susceptible to fluctuations, such as some durable goods industries or construction. Another recommendation arising from this review was to prepare more alternative scenarios, varying the assumptions for each case. Particularly, more accurate projections may result from broadening the range of values that key exogenous variables can assume. The benefits of the review of the 1970 economic and employ ment projections were such that the procedure became a regular part of the projections program. Projections for the 1975 economy, prepared in 1971, were designed to reflect steady medium-term growth and could not anticipate the sharp deviation from the path brought on by the 1974—75 recession.7 Thus, the high-productivity, full employment assumptions of the 1975 projections resulted in a large percentage error in “supply gross national product” — the projected level of economic resources. This error, in turn, biased the equa tions of the econometric model used for simulating lev els of demand and passed high estimates of final demand through the projection process, ultimately distorting projected levels of industry employment. The 1975 evaluation of the projection methodology also revealed weakness in the estimation of demand components of G N P.8 Equations used to derive the in vestment and import levels were found to be particular ly poor, while those related to personal income, personal consumption expeditures, and government pur chases performed well. The final demand industry dis tributions were quite inaccurate, due mainly to Brief history of Bureau of Labor Statistics projections In November 1979, BLS projection work, previously spread among three Bureau organizations, was brought to gether under the umbrella of the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections. While previous interoffice efforts had been coordinated, the organizational change made possible an even closer integration of the pro jections for various aspects of the economy. The projec tions in this issue are the first developed after this organizational change. appointed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt. In 1938, the committee recommended the establishment of an occu pational outlook service within the Bureau of Labor Statis tics to conduct employment studies and provide career guidance information for individuals and for vocational counselors and planners. Accordingly, the Occupational Outlook Service was organized under a specific authoriza tion of the Congress in 1941. Preliminary studies were be gun that year, but it was not until after World War II that the staff was able to focus on the publication of reports for use in career guidance. In mid-1946, a manual of occupa tional outlook information was prepared for use in the Vet erans Administration counseling and rehabilitation program. The first edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook was published in 1949 in response to a formal resolution by the National Vocational Guidance Association and the requests of other groups and individuals that Congress au thorize the development of career guidance information for sale. The public response was favorable to this first H and book, and in 1951, the Bureau decided to issue a revised and enlarged edition, with the backing of the Veterans Ad ministration. After the end of hostilities in Korea, there was height ened public recognition of the key role of vocational guidance in channeling workers into essential occupations and effectively using the Nation’s labor resources. As a re sult, in 1955, Congress provided continuing authorization for regular publication of the Occupational Outlook H and book and related materials. In 1957, the third edition of the Handbook was published and a companion piece, the Occupational Outlook Quarterly, was introduced to report on new occupations and describe changes in the employ ment situation in established career fields. The 1982-83 Handbook, currently in preparation, will be the 15th edi tion, and should be available in late spring of 1982. The projections discussed in this issue of the Review will form the basis for the new Handbook. Labor force. Over the years, the Bureau has developed pro jections for each of the major subsets of the current pro jections. Labor force estimates were first produced in 1959. Since that time, seven sets of these projections have been published. Industry output and employment projections. In 1963, the Bureau began construction of a medium-term economic projections model. Incorporating the input-output tables then being developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce, this model was designed to produce industry output and employment pro jections 5 to 15 years into the future. Since that time, the BLS Economic Growth Model has undergone several changes in response to the need for more accurate and de tailed data. Various versions of this model have been used to develop a series of seven sets of projections. The current version of the Economic Growth Model is a system of equations and identities linked at selected points by various economic, econometric, mathematical, and pro gramming techniques to simulate the U.S. economy. Given an explicit set of assumed values for certain target vari ables, this model generates industry output and employ ment projections. A key feature is the interlinking of inputoutput analysis with other econometric techniques. Occupational outlook. This facet of the program originated with a report of the Advisory Committee on Education 6 judgmental error. Projected industry outputs were dis torted more by errors in the estimates of final demand than by inaccuracies in the input-output table employed in the projection process. However, industry productivi ty factors also were wide of the mark, offsetting the de mand error in such a way that relative accuracy in the industry employment projections resulted. Projections of the labor force and employment for 1975 fell within 4 percent of the realized levels. GNP was overestimated by 15.4 percent. Errors for detailed industry final demand, output, and employment’ fell within a broader range, but, for the most part, the larg er percentage errors occurred among the smaller sec tors. Employment was overestimated for three-quarters of the industries studied, reflecting the severity of the 1975 recession. The largest percent errors were recorded for the durable manufacturing and mining industries, while the largest numerical errors occurred within the con struction, trade, and service industries, the three largest economic sectors. The absolute difference between actu al and projected employment for each of the 71 indus tries studied averaged 8 percent of total employment for these industries. Total employment for 1975 was overprojected by about 3.5 percent, although discrepancies varied widely by industry. The overprojection of GNP led to an over estimate of industry outputs; together with the misprojection of labor productivity, this resulted in the overprojection of total employment. At the industry level, the average absolute percentage error in employment for 71 industries was 14.8 percent; when weighted by industry employment shares, the av erage dropped to 8 percent. This again indicates that the larger percentage errors were in the smaller indus tries. Estimates for more than 40 percent of the indus tries, accounting for more than two-thirds of em ployment, were within 10 percent of the actual values. The largest single concentration of error was in the con struction industry; personal and business services were a close second. The third largest source of error was the trade sector; although the discrepancy was small, it be came important because of the large size of the sector. The 1975 evaluation differed from the review of the 1970 projections, chiefly because the macro model was not used in the 1970 study. In addition, the 1970 study found productivity factors to be the most important in explaining errors in projected employment, while the 1975 study found macro controls to be the major source. projected these relationships to 1975.9 The primary data sources for the project were the 1950 and 1960 censuses and, for industry em ploym ent, annual esti m ates from the BLS establishm ent surveys from 1947 onward. A revision of the 1975 matrix based largely on addi tional industry data was completed in 1969. Although the revision was not published, it is a resource for the occupational outlook program, and provides more his torical data for evaluating projections. Due to a major change in the occupational employment classification system beginning with the 1970 census, only 76 of the 162 detailed occupations were comparable over the 1960-75 period. The unforeseen economic downturn of the mid-1970’s reduced the accuracy of the occupational projections; although the errors were not as great as initially sup posed, the target year turned out to be the trough of the recession, and the actual unemployment rate was 8.5 percent. Consequently, employment in cyclically sensitive occupations, such as craft and operative occu pations, generally was overprojected. Employment in these two groups had been growing in line with project ed trends through 1974, but turned down as economic conditions worsened in 1975. Interestingly, underprojec tions did occur in 3 of the 9 major occupational groups despite the recession, and these errors might have been somewhat higher if economic conditions in 1975 had been as favorable as originally assumed. The difference between projected and actual employ ment for the major occupational groups ranged from a 6.7-percent underestimate for clerical workers to a 9.1-percent overestimate for operatives. The average of the absolute percentage difference was 6.1 percent. The projections for more detailed occupations were subject to much larger error, averaging 20.8-percent off 1975 employment levels. Again, differences between projected and actual employment tended to be smaller for the larger worker groups. Several projection methods that would have been simpler than the matrix procedure were explored during the 1975 review. Among these, the most successful was linear extrapolation of employment trends for each oc cupation. These extrapolations averaged an absolute 26.2 percent off actual 1975 employment in the 76 de tailed occupations, compared with the 20.8-percent er ror in the matrix projections. The direction of employment change between 1960 and 1975 was correctly anticipated for all of the nine major occupational groups, although employment in five was overprojected. However, the evaluation of 1975 employment projections for detailed occupations was hampered by the previously mentioned change in the Census Bureau occupational classification system for the 1970 census. Beginning in late 1971, the revised system Occupational estimates. In 1967, the Division of Occupa tional Outlook completed an industry-occupation ma trix which described the relationship of employment in 162 occupations and 124 industries during 1960 and 7 was adopted for the Current Population Survey ( c p s ), the primary source of occupational employment data between decennial censuses. Largely as a result of this classification change, projections for only 76 of the 162 occupations in the matrix were comparable with 1975 employment data estimated from the CPS. Differences between projected and actual employment in the 76 de tailed occupations ranged from a 43-percent understate ment for personnel and labor relations workers to a 136percent overestimate for plasterers. The absolute per centage errors for all 76 occupations averaged 20.8 percent. Two-thirds of the occupations, however, had errors lower than the average. As indicated earlier, this evaluation found projection accuracy to be related to the size of employment in an occupation. When weighted by employment in each oc cupation, the average absolute error drops from 20.8 percent to 14 percent, indicating that projections for the largest occupations generally were more accurate. Rela tively close estimates for the four occupational catego ries with more than 1 million workers each in 1975 contributed substantially to the final results. The fol lowing tabulation shows how projection accuracy im proved with the size of the worker group: Number o f workers in occupations Number o f occupations Average absolute percent error Total ................... Less than 50,000 ........... 50,000 to 99,999 ........... 100,000 to 299,999 ____ 300,000 to 599,999 ____ 600,000 and more . . . . 76 19 14 17 14 12 20.8 32.4 20.3 15.5 19.8 11.2 trends in the occupational structure of industries. Al though the projections were made in the late 1960’s, the only comprehensive sources of historical data on ratios were the 1950 and 1960 decennial censuses. A long-rec ognized need for current, detailed data on industry staf fing patterns prompted the initiation of the cooperative Federal-State program, Occupational Employment Sta tistics, in 1970. Continuing analysis of the accuracy of projections is an important activity in improving their reliability. Thus, evaluation of previous projections has become a regular part of the BLS program. Complete employment data soon will be available for comparison with the 1980 industry and occupational projections, and an evaluation of the complete set of 1980 projections is currently planned. The Bureau’s policy of updating the medium-term scenarios every 2 years also contributes to accuracy. The three articles which follow reflect such an update of the 1990 GNP, industry output and employment, and occupational projections developed in 1978-79. p r e p a r a t i o n o f e c o n o m i c p r o j e c t i o n s is, to a degree, both a science and an art. Thus, misunderstand ings may arise between the users, who feel the need for exact numbers, and producers, who recognize their in ability to predict with such precision. Such con flicts are all the more likely because projections analysts generally employ a framework which develops numeri cal answers to specific questions, and users are inevita bly tempted to attribute to those numbers an exactness they should not be accorded. The Bureau attempts to address this dilemma, in at least a small way, by mak ing clear all of the important assumptions underlying its projections, by developing alternative versions which re flect at least some of the uncertainties about the future, by evaluating past projections to assist users in appreci ating the unpredictable nature of certain future events, and by updating the projections on a regular 2-year cy cle. Even so, the Bureau is aware that many uses of the projections (see box) require quantitative estimates. It is incumbent on users to realize that differing assumptions can change the results, that underlying data and meth ods can cause errors, and that estimates should be care fully reviewed to take into account subsequent developments. which could not be anticipated at the time the projections were prepared. A final comment, from Edgar R. Fiedler, on projec tions, their uncertainties, and their uses: “give them a number or give them a date, but never both.” 10 □ T he A major objective of the evaluation of the 1975 occupational projections was to isolate the effects of er rors in the matrix elements that determine occupational employment in the target year (projected employment by industry) on projected occupational staffing patterns for each industry (industry-occupation ratios). Although the occupational projections were off the mark for many reasons, including the economic down turn, the 1975 review established that the ratio esti mates were a far greater source of error in the occupational projections than the estimates of industry employment levels. In fact, a simulated matrix based on actual 1975 industry employment levels and the esti mated ratios produced occupational totals that were no more accurate, on average, than the projections, suggesting that the quality of the ratios was so poor as to negate the effect of perfect industry employment pro jections. The ratio estimates were based on scanty data for 8 FOOTNOTES 8 Paul T. Christy and Karen I. Horowitz, “An evaluation of BLS projections of 1975 output and employment,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1979, pp. 8-19. q Evaluations of earlier occupational projections are described in Sol Swerdloff, “How good were manpower projections for the 1960’s,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1969, pp. 17-22. The arti cle referenced here is Max L. Carey, “Evaluating the 1975 projections of occupational employment,” Monthly Labor Review, June 1980, pp. 10- 21 . The Bureau’s occupational projections for 1975 were first published in Occupational Employment Patterns for 1960 and 1975, Bulletin 1599 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1968). The projections also were present ed in a corollary report, Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Volume IV, Bulletin 1606 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1969). The projections eval uated in this article were obtained from the latter publication. There are minor differences in estimates presented in the two publications. ' The labor force projections were published earlier. See Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: a first look,” Monthly Labor Re view, December 1980, pp. 11-21. 2See Fullerton, “The 1995 labor force.” 3The employment total used in this and the subsequent articles consists of wage and salary workers, self-employed, and unpaid family workers. 4See Paul M. Ryscavage, “BLS labor force projections: a review of methods and results,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1979, pp. 15-22. 5Tapering refers to the assumptions and formulations used to move from the most recent rate of change in labor force participation for a given age-sex group to a zero rate of change several decades in the fu ture. 6Valerie A. Personick and Robert A. Sylvester, “Evaluation of BLS 19V0 economic and employment projections,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1976, pp. 13-16. Projections o f the Post-Vietnam Economy, 1975, Bulletin 1733 (Bu reau of Labor Statistics, 1972). 10Edgar R. Fiedler, “The Three R’s of Economic Forecasting— Ir rational, Irrelevant, and Irreverent,” Across the Board, June 1977, pp. 62-63. Translating projections into action In some respects the appraisal of forecasts puts a greater burden on the policymaker than the original task of forecasting itself. The accu racy of current forecasts is, of course, yet to be determined. Evalua tion of the methodology of various forecasts may require technical sophistication at least as great as, and perhaps greater than, that of the specialist in forecasting. Yet the policymaker is rarely a specialist in forecasting techniques, nor is he often an authority on the phenom ena being projected. Moreover, for the frequent case in which numer ous forecasts of the same trend are available, the selection of a “most likely” forecast is in itself an act of forecasting, since the policymaker chooses the forecast which reflects assumptions and methods that ap pear most reasonable to him. The policymaker thus tacitly chooses a set of assumptions about the future and methodology for projecting the essence of those assumptions. ------------W ILLIAM ASCHER Forecasting: An appraisal fo r Policy-Makers and Planners (Baltimore, Md., The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978), pp. 1-2. 9 The US, economy through 1990—an update Revised BLS projections o f growth indicate a shift from government spending to private investment; the three alternative projections assume a broad range o f values for productivity, inflation, and fiscal policy N o r m a n C. S a u n d e r s In what ways might the U.S. economy expand during the 1980’s? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared three trend projections of growth for the 1980-90 period, updating the two prior scenarios published in 1978 and adding a projection of major change in Federal fiscal policies.1 The low-trend projection is characterized by assumptions of continuing high inflation, low productiv ity growth, and moderate expansion in real production. Alternatively, the high-trend version-! projection as sumes marked improvements in both inflation and pro ductivity, greater labor force growth, and commensurately higher real production levels. Finally, the new high-trend, versioe-II alternative assumes labor force growth consistent with the low-trend, but greater pro ductivity gains and less inflation than in the version-I high-trend. None of the alternatives represents an at tempt to forecast possible cyclical fluctuations during the 1980’s. The three projections are intended to pro vide a range within which economic growth will most likely occur; however, they should not be interpreted as being representative of all likelihoods. Hereafter, the three scenarios will be referred to as the low-trend, the high-I, and the high-II alternatives. By 1990, real gross national product ( g n p ) is expected to range between $1.9 and $2.2 trillion, with civilian employment between 120 and 129 million jobs. In all three versions, annual rates of growth in employ ment begin to slow in the 1980’s but are more than off set by assumed improvements in productivity. Follow ing are projected growth rates, for GNP, disposable income, and employment during 1980-85 and 1985—90: Norman C. Saunders is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Low Gross national product . . . Real disposable income . . . Employment . 1980-85 1985-90 High-I High-II Low High-I High-II 2.2 3.8 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.1 1.9 1.5 3.8 2.4 3.7 1.7 2.5 1.4 4.3 1.9 4.6 1.5 In terms of the real rate of growth, the low-trend pro jections are comparable to the 1973-80 period when real GNP increased at an average rate of 2.4 percent and real disposable income grew by 2.5 percent each year. Conversely, the two high-trend projections corre spond more with the 1955-68 period, when GNP grew at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent, while real dis posable income was up annually by 3.8 percent. Major assumptions Underlying the projections are five major groups of assumptions—fiscal, demographic, productivity, unem ployment, and prices.2 Other assumptions such as capi tal discard rates, short- and medium-term interest rates, and motor fuel usage are not discussed here. However, the impact of the latter is limited to relatively small seg ments of the projections. An exception is the energy area, but because of limitations in the current BLS model, neither energy prices nor the availability of imported oil play a direct role in the aggregate projec tions. At the industry level, the consumption of energy by type and source is generally consistent with the me dium-price projections of the Department of Energy, which are discussed elsewhere in this issue.3 Fiscal. It is assumed that personal tax payments will be affected in 1981 by a Federal income tax cut ranging from $12 billion in the low-trend projection to $23 bil $56,100 in 1990, with a combined tax rate of 14.3 per cent. This leads to social insurance contributions ac counting for 10.6 percent of national income over the first years of the decade. Thereafter, contributions decline in share terms, accounting for 10.1 percent of national income by 1990. In the high-II model, the wage base reaches $54,900 in 1990, with a combined tax rate of 13.4 percent (that is, no change in the rate is assumed over the entire de cade). In this scenario, Federal social insurance contri butions account for 9.4 percent of national income by 1990. To summarize the tax assumptions, Federal receipts are expected to account for somewhat more than 21.0 percent of GNP during the first years of the 1980’s in the low-trend projection and decline moderately to about 20.0 percent by 1990. The high-I alternative is charac terized by revenues accounting for 19.5 percent of GNP in 1985 and 18.1 percent by 1990. Finally, in the highII model, revenues drop to 18.5 and 17.9 percent of GNP in 1985 and 1990, respectively. The assumed goal for Federal expenditures in the three alternatives is to lower expenditures as a propor tion of GNP throughout the decade. In the low-trend version, Federal purchases of goods and services, ex cluding employee compensation, are assumed to grow at a real rate of 5.5 percent a year between 1980 and 1985 and at 2.5 percent between 1985 and 1990. In both high-trend versions, purchases less compensation in crease at a real rate of approximately 5.0 percent in the first half of the decade, slowing to a 2.5-percent average growth during the 1985-90 period. In all alternatives, it has been assumed that real defense expenditures in crease by 4.0 to 5.0 percent each year during 1980-85 and by 2.0 to 3.0 percent during 1985-90. The three alternatives assume that military forces reach 2.129 million by 1985 and remain at that level for the remainder of the decade. This level is approximately 27.000 more than in 1980. (The implication is that all real increases in defense spending are aimed at provid ing more materiel, rather than more personnel.) Federal civilian employment is assumed to increase by approxi mately .7 percent, or 13,000 jobs, each year between 1980 and 1990 in the low-and high-I alternatives. In the high-II alternative, rather sharp cuts in Federal civilian employment are assumed for the early 1980’s, leaving employment at 2.08 million employees in the 1985-90 period. This is a cut of approximately 100,000 jobs from 1980 levels. Federal transfer payments are comprised of: (1) un employment insurance benefits; (2) social security; (3) Federal civilian employee retirement; (4) military retire ment; (5) hospital and supplementary medical insur ance; (6) supplemental security income; and (7) all other Federal benefit programs. Projections for each category lion in the high-I version. In addition, Federal taxes as a proportion of personal income are assumed to decline throughout the decade. During the 1973-80 period, per sonal taxes accounted for an average of 11.1 percent of personal income, reaching 12.0 percent in 1980. In 1990, the effective rate declines to 10.6 percent in the low-trend projection, and to 8.9 percent in the version I high-trend. After 1981, neither scenario anticipates tax cuts in specific years. Rather, tax revenues are affected smoothly over the entire period by assuming rate reduc tions in each year. In the high-II version, however, Fed eral personal effective tax rates are cut 5.0 percent in 1981, 10.0 percent each year in 1982 and 1983, and, fi nally, by 5.0 percent in 1984. This results in an effective rate of 8.8 percent in 1984. The rate is maintained at this level for the remainder of the decade. The effective tax rate on corporate profits averaged approximately 35.0 percent during the 1970’s. In the low-trend model, corporate tax policy has been set to lower this effective rate to 32.0 percent by 1990, with most of the decline occurring in the latter half of the decade. In contrast, both high-trend projections reach an effective rate of approximately 28.0 percent by 1990, with the largest declines occurring early in the decade. The declining share of profits allocated to taxes results from tax cuts as well as from an increase in investment tax credits and more rapid depreciation rates. The ma jor difference between the high trends and the low trend lies more in the timing of the tax cuts than in the mag nitude. Indirect business taxes are maintained, in all three projections, at a relatively constant share of national in come, moving primarily with the inflation rate. Social insurance contributions are determined primar ily by the taxable wage base and by the combined employer-employee tax rate. In the low-trend alterna tive, it is assumed that the provisions of the Social Se curity Act of 1977 will be maintained throughout the decade. This legislation increases the wage base for so cial security contributions from $21,900 in 1979 to $60,300 in 1990, accompanied by an increase in the OASDHI tax rate to 15.3 percent by 1990. Under these assumptions, social insurance contributions account for a constant proportion of national income throughout the decade. Under the act, a 1.0-percentage-point increase in the combined employer-employee tax rate is mandated for 1990 over 1989. The resultant jump in social insurance contributions leads to a projected Federal Government surplus of $76 billion. Had the tax rate increase not been specified for 1990, the surplus would have been about $30 to $35 billion in the low-growth alternative. In the high-I alternative, it is assumed that, after 1981, the Social Security Act will be amended. The wage base in this alternative is assumed to reach 11 are prepared using the expected rate of inflation, esti mated changes in recipient population, and a discretion ary change which represents real changes in offered benefits. Real average benefit payments decline by about —.3 percent during 1980-90 in the low-trend scenario. In contrast, the high-I projection assumes virtually no real growth in average transfer payments in the early half of the decade but a relatively strong real growth of about 1.5 percent a year during 1985-90. This is based on the assumption that the stronger growth in real in comes in this alternative will renew interest in expan sion of social welfare programs. The high-II version is characterized by sharp cuts in real average benefits of about 4.0 percent a year during the 1981-84 period, with very little real growth in average benefits after 1984. Real grants-in-aid to State and local governments are assumed to decline over the decade in all projections. This assumption reflects declining expenditures of the highway trust fund and a phasing out of general reve nue-sharing programs. From 1980 to 1990, real grants are assumed to decline by 1.9 percent a year in the lowtrend alternative and by 0.9 percent in the two hightrend alternatives. Net jnterest payments and subsidies to government enterprises are essentially unchanged in real terms throughout the projection period. The effects of these assumptions on the national income accounts measures of Federal receipts and expenditures are shown in table 1. ment rates represent possible recovery paths from the 1980 economic slowdown, and, then, long-run targets a p p ro a c h in g fu ll-e m p lo y m e n t. F o llo w in g s u m e d u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te s , 1981--90: 1981 .............. ................... 1982 .............. ................... 1983 .............. ................... 1984 .............. ................... 1985 .............. ................... 1986 .............. .................... 1987 .............. ................... 1988 . ______ .................... 1989 .............. ................... 1990 .............. ................... Unemployment and productivity. The unemployment rate is viewed as a policy objective. Projected unemployTabS© 1. Federal Government receipts and expenditures, 1980, and projected to 1985, and 1990, on a National Sneom® Accounts basis [Current dollars in billions] 1980 ........................................ 1985 L o w .............................. H ig h -I.............................. High-II ........................... 1990 L o w ................................ H ig h -I.............................. High-II ........................... P ercent Of GNP Expendi tures Percent o f GNP Surplus o r d e ficit 538.9 978.8 921.1 825.5 1,594.4 1,431.3 1,234.5 20.5 21.1 19.5 18.5 19.9 18.1 17.9 601.2 982.7 916.0 817.9 1,518.4 1,409.3 1,186.7 22.9 21.2 19.4 18.3 19.0 17.9 17.2 -6 2 .3 - 3 .9 5.1 7.6 76.0 21.9 47.8 th e Low H ig h -I H ig h -I I 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 8.1 7.6 7.0 6.3 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 7.8 7.2 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 as- Some of the post-1985 declines can be ascribed to the changing age structure of the labor force. However, con tinuing real declines are assumed for the entire 1981— 90 period in the projections. For the private nonfarm sector, the long-term average annual rate of productivity growth was 2.6 percent be tween 1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and 1973, this rate dropped to 2.1 percent annually and even further to .7 percent during the 1973-80 period. The slowdown in productivity growth over the last years has been attrib uted to many factors, including the influx of new work ers into the labor force; slowing in capital accumulation per worker; an emphasis on nonproductive types of in vestment, such as pollution control investment; and the remarkable increase in energy prices since 1973. Quite different assumptions are made about possible paths of productivity growth in the alternatives. The low-trend projection assumes a continuation of slow growth in nonfarm productivity— .9 percent real growth each year between 1980 and 1985, and 1.8 per cent between 1985 and 1990. In contrast, the high-I projection assumes productivity growth of 1.4 percent each year during 1980-85 and 2.5 percent for 1985-90. The most optimistic assumptions appear in the high-II version, with nonfarm output per hour increasing at a 2.2-percent rate each year between 1980-85 and at a 3.0-percent rate during the latter portion of the decade. Some of the factors which contributed to the produc tivity slowdown in the 1970’s are expected to improve in the coming decade. Members of the postwar baby boom will become more experienced and productive during the 1980’s. The rapid rate of growth in expendi tures for environmental and energy conservation equip ment should slow somewhat during the first half of the decade, and a slower rate of growth in energy prices coupled with smaller increases in the demand for energy is expected to have an impact. Finally, policies which increase investment incentives should have an impact later in the decade. However, some argue that techno logical breakthrough cannot continue at the rate it did Demographic assumptions. The primary determinants of the demographic data are the level and the age and sex distribution of the population. Three projected popula tion series were developed by the Bureau of the Census, differing primarily in the assumed fertility rate. The Series-II population projections were used in the economic projections, as were the associated Series-B household projections.4 The bls middle-growth labor force projec tion is used in the low-trend and high-II versions, and the high-growth labor force projection is used in the high-I projection.5 R eceipts a re 12 during the 1970’s. Others argue that poor productivity performance will continue.6 Because these factors are difficult to quantify in terms of their impact on future productivity changes, the range of possible productivity growth has purposefully been kept broad. and services. Total GNP and its various components are presented in table 2 in constant 1972 prices for selected years from 1955 to 1990. Between 1980 and 1985, lowtrend GNP is projected to increase at an average rate of 2.2 percent each year, roughly the same rate prevalent in the 1973-80 period, but below the long-term rate of 3.3 percent between 1955 and 1980. In the high-I and high-II versions, GNP is projected to increase by 3.8 and 3.7 percent, respectively, during 1980-85, well above the long-term rate. After 1985, the growth potential continues to im prove as better productivity performance more than off sets slower labor force growth. Low-trend GNP growth increases to a 2.8-percent average rate and the hightrend versions to approximately a 4.0-percent rate over the last years of the decade. Although all components of GNP are projected to grow more rapidly in the high-trend versions, the major difference between these two alternatives and the lowtrend version is in investment. The timing of business tax incentives for investment in the low-trend model is such that little impact is noticed on plant and equip ment investment before the middle of the decade. In the high-trend versions, plant and equipment expenditures are projected to grow strongly over the entire projec tion horizon. The other components of demand are also projected to exceed long-term trend rates of growth in the high-trend versions and to lag behind these histori cal patterns in the low-trend model. Prices. The final major assumption deals with the infla tion rate. The key item is the implicit deflator for private GNP. Long-term movements of this deflator, compared with movements in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, are as follows: Private GNP deflator 1955-68 ........................................ 1968-73 ............. .’ ........................ 1973-80 ........................................ 2.1 4.6 7.8 CPI 2.0 5.0 9.2 A relatively pessimistic view of inflation possibilities is taken in the low-trend alternative. The private GNP de flator is assumed to increase at a 9.2-percent growth rate in the 1980-85 period and at an 8.3-percent rate during 1985-90. The high-! version assumes that infla tion will moderate over the longer run. The 1980-85 rate of inflation is set at 7.9 percent; it drops to 6.4 per cent over the latter half of the projection period. The greatest improvement in inflation is assumed to occur in the high-II projection as the rate of growth of the pri vate GNP deflator drops to 7.0 percent in the 1980-85 period, followed by a further decline to a 4.7-percent rate between 1985 and 1990. Prices do not directly affect the determination of real GNP in the BLS model, but they do enter into the projec tions in several important ways. First, wages and inter est rates are greatly influenced by inflation. These, in turn, affect consumption expenditures and residential in vestment. Second, prices have an impact on the Federal budget. They enter implicitly into the determination of various expenditure levels and, on the revenue side, they affect personal income taxes because of the progressive tax structure. The future movement of prices is quite uncertain. The price assumptions used in these projec tions are a judgment as to the relative strengths of the various factors which affect price determination, as well as an attempt (as with the productivity assumption) to define a relatively broad band around probable future price change. The linkage of higher productivity growth and lower rates of inflation is, to some extent, an arbi trary decision in that other combinations of assump tions could logically be justified as well. Consumption. Personal consumption expenditures have traditionally accounted for the largest share of final pro duction. In 1955, personal consumption made up about 60.0 percent of real GNP and has steadily increased its share to over 63.0 percent in 1980. This trend is pro jected to end, at least temporarily, in the three projec tions as the greater emphasis on capital formation becomes apparent. By 1990, total personal consumption expenditures are expected to account for 61.3 percent of GNP in the low-trend projection, 62.0 percent in the high-I version, and 62.8 percent in high-II. The long-term trend toward relatively more expendi tures on durables and services and relatively fewer pur chases of nondurable goods is projected to continue in all three alternatives. In 1955, 13.0 percent of real per sonal consumption expenditures was accounted for by durable goods purchases, which include autos and parts, furniture and appliances, and recreational items, such as radios, televisions, and sporting goods; by 1980, durables accounted for just under 14.5 percent. Pur chases of durable goods are projected to increase 3.4 percent a year between 1980 and 1985 in the low-trend projection and by about 6.3 percent a year in both high-trend versions. After 1985, such purchases will ac celerate to 3.7 percent each year in the low-trend ver Aggregate demand Gross national product consists of personal consump tion expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net foreign trade, and government purchases of goods 13 sion, and will slow to 5.4 and 5.7 percent, respectively, in high-I and high-II versions. Durables purchases in all projections are expected to rebound sharply from the 1980 slowdown, increasing their share of total con sumption to about 16.0 percent in 1990 in the low-trend version, and to just under-17.0 percent in the high-trend alternatives. As with durables, consumers have allocated an in creasing proportion of their incomes to purchases of services over the post-World War II period. In 1955, services accounted for 40.0 percent of consumption, but by 1980 had reached 47.2 percent. This trend is expected to continue, as services purchases attain be Table 2 . G ross national produ ct by tween 48.0 and 49.0 percent of personal consumption expenditures in 1990 in the three alternatives. As families’ real incomes increase, expenditures for ne cessities such as food, basic clothing, and shelter tend to reach saturation levels. Further real income growth yields greater amounts of discretionary income for pur chasing luxuries. This is one of the reasons for the in creases in durable and service purchases relative to nondurable expenditures. Nondurable purchases ac counted for 47.0 percent of consumer spending in 1955, dipping to 38.3 percent by 1980. Investment. Gross private domestic investment consists m ajor co m p o n en t, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1980, and p ro je c te d to 1985 and 1990 [1972 dollars in billions] Actual Component Gross national product ........................................................................ Personal consumption expenditures................................................................ Gross private domestic investment ................................................................ Nonresidential structures ............................................................................. Producers’ durable e qu ip m en t..................................................................... Residential investment .................................................................................. Change in business inventories ................................................................... Net e x p o rts ........................................................................................................... E x p o rts ............................................................................................................. Imports ............................................................................................................. Government purchases .................................................................................... Federal ............................................................................................................. D e fe n se ........................................................................................................ N o n d e fe n se ................................................................................................. State and local .............................................................................................. Projected 1955 1SS8 1973 1980 657.5 394.1 103.8 25.4 35.9 34.8 7.7 7.3 30.7 23.4 152.3 88.2 1,058.1 634.4 161.6 42.8 1,255.0 768.5 217.5 47.4 90.7 62.3 17.2 15.5 97.3 81.8 253.5 95.9 68.3 27.6 157.6 1,480.7 935.1 203.7 48.4 110.0 48.2 - 3 .0 52.0 161.1 109.1 290.0 108.2 70.9 37.2 181.9 (’ ) 66.8 43.1 9.0 1.9 61.2 59.3 260.2 128.1 (’ ) (') (’ ) 64.1 132.1 1985 1980 Low High-I High-II Low High-I High-II 1,653.3 1,001.0 263.6 46.4 135.3 67.6 14.3 60.8 202.0 141.2 327.9 128.9 93.4 35.5 199.0 1,784.7 1,094.5 310.1 49.3 163.5 78.5 18.8 55.6 209.7 154.1 324.7 126.6 91.6 35.0 198.1 1,775.1 1,091.3 309.7 49.2 164.8 77.0 18.7 49.0 203.4 154.4 324.9 125.9 93.7 32.2 199.0 1,902.4 1,166.5 315.8 55.5 172.6 70.9 16.8 73.4 246.2 172.8 346.9 140.3 103.3 37.0 206.6 2,172.6 1,346.0 420.2 62.4 240.9 92.1 24.8 62.2 270.3 208.1 344.4 135.3 98.8 36.5 209.1 2,171.8 1,364.0 422.6 62.8 243.5 91.6 24.7 37.7 249.1 211.4 347.6 137.5 104.1 33.4 210.1 100.0 61.5 17.4 2.8 9.3 4.3 1.1 2.8 11.5 -8 .7 18.3 7.1 5.3 1.8 11.2 100.0 61.3 16.6 2.9 9.1 3.7 .9 3.9 12.9 -9 .1 18.2 7.4 5.4 1.9 10.9 100.0 62.0 19.3 2.9 11.1 4.2 1.1 2.9 12.4 - 9 .6 15.9 6.2 4.5 1.7 9.6 100.0 62.8 19.5 2.9 11.2 4.2 1.1 1.7 11.5 - 9 .7 16.0 6.3 4.8 1.5 9.7 Percent distribution Gross national product ........................................................................ Personal consumption expenditures. . : ......................................................... Gross private domestic investment ...................................................... , . . . Nonresidential structures ............................................................................. Producers' durable e q u ip m en t..................................................................... Residential investment .................................................................................. Change in business inventories ................................................................... Net e x p o rts ........................................................................................................... E x p o rts ............................................................................................................. Im p o rts .............................................................................................................. Government purchases .................................................................................... F e d e ra l............................................................................................................. D e fe n se ........................................................................................................ N o n d e fe n se ................................................................................................. State and local .............................................................................................. 100.0 59.9 15.8 3.9 5.5 5.3 1.2 1.1 4.7 - 3 .6 23.2 13.4 (') (') 9.7 100.0 60.0 15.3 4.0 6.3 4.1 .9 .2 5.8 - 5 .6 24.6 12.1 100.0 61.2 17.3 3.8 7.2 5.0 1.4 1.2 7.8 -6 .5 20.2 7.6 5.4 2.2 12.6 (') n 12.5 100.0 63.2 13.8 3.3 7.4 3.3 -.2 3.5 10.9 - 7 .4 19.6 7.3 4.8 2.5 12.3 100.0 60.5 15.9 2.8 8.2 4.1 .9 3.7 12.2 - 8 .5 19.8 7.8 5.6 2.1 12.0 100.0 61.3 17.4 2.8 9.2 4.4 1.1 3.1 11.7 - 8 .6 18.2 7.1 5.1 2.0 11.1 Average annual rate of change Gross national product ........................................................................ Personal consumption expenditures................................................................ Gross private domestic investment ................................................................ Nonresidential structures ............................................. ........................... Producers’ durable equ ip m en t..................................................................... Residential investment .................................................................................. Change in business inventories ................................................................... Net e x p o rts ........................................................................................................... E x p o rts ............................................................................................................. Imports ............................................................................................................. Government purchases .................................................................................... F e d e ra l............................................................................................................. D e fe n se ........................................................................................................ Nondefense ................................................................................................. State and local .............................................................................................. 1 Not available. 2 Not computable. 1955-68 1988-73 1973-80 3.7 3.7 3.5 4.1 4.9 1.7 1.2 - 9 .8 5.5 7.4 4.2 2.9 (’) (’ ) 5.7 3.5 3.9 6.1 2.1 6.3 7.6 13.8 52.2 9.7 6.6 2.4 2.8 - .9 .3 2.8 - 3 .6 ( 2) 18.9 7.5 4.2 1.9 1.7 .5 4.4 2.1 -.5 - 5 .6 ( ) ( ) 3.6 1980-85 2.2 1.4 5.3 - .8 4.2 7.0 ( 2) 3.2 4.6 5.3 2.5 3.6 5.7 - .9 1.8 3.8 3.2 8.8 .4 8.2 10.2 ( 2) 1.3 5.4 7.2 2.3 3.2 5.3 -1 .2 1.7 1985-90 3.7 3.1 8.7 .3 8.4 9.8 (2) - 1 .2 4.8 7.2 2.3 3.1 5.7 - 2 .8 1.8 2.8 3.1 3.7 3.6 5.0 1.0 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.1 1.1 1.7 2.0 .8 .8 4.0 4.2 6.3 4.8 8.1 3.2 5.7 2.3 5.2 6.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 .8 1.1 4.1 4.6 6.4 5.0 8.1 3.5 5.7 -5.1 4.1 6.5 1.4 1.8 2.1 .7 1.1 N o t e : Gross national product data reflect the benchmark revisions released in December 1980 by the U.S. Department of Commerce. 14 increasing costs and also because of greater interest in leisure-time pursuits. The shift toward more energy-effi cient, less costly multifamily homes is expected to con tinue throughout the 1980’s. The rate is difficult to pre dict, however, and is the major difference between the low- and high-trend versions. A final demographic factor affecting the projection of residential investment is the prediction that new house hold formation will slow dramatically in coming years, declining from 2.7 percent in 1980 to 1.9 percent in 1985 and to 1.6 percent in 1990. Although the slow down is apparent over the entire decade, the effects are not expected to be seen until the latter half because of the pent-up demand left over from the recessions of the 1970’s. In the low-trend projection, a moderate recovery from the 1980 slowdown is expected as real residential investment increases at a rate of 7.0 percent between 1980 and 1985, reaching $67.6 billion in 1985. In both high-trend alternatives, a sharp comeback from the 1980 recession is expected. In the high-I projection, the expected rate of growth is 10.2 percent, attaining a level of $78.5 billion. The high-II version attains a growth rate of 9.8 percent over the five-year period. In all three cases, housing starts are expected to rebound to the 2.0-million unit level by 1984 or 1985. The primary rea son for less growth in the low-trend alternative is that continued high inflation is expected to hasten the shift from single-family to multifamily dwellings. Because multifamily units usually cost somewhat less than sin gle-family homes, increases in total real expenditures will, be lower; In all alternatives, real residential invest ment expenditures account for between 4.1 and 4.3 per cent of GNP in 1985, approximately the share attained at the prior peak in the 1977-78 period. After 1985, the demographic effects become apparent as growth in high-trend residential investment falls to an annual rate of 3.2 and 3.5 percent between 1985 and 1990 in versions high-I and high-II. In the low-trend model, virtually no growth is anticipated during the lat ter half of the decade. Annual housing starts are expected to decline from about 2.0 million units in 1985 to between 1.7 and 1.9 million units by 1990. Between 1955 and .1968, business fixed investment grew by 4.6 percent a year. Between 1968 and 1973, growth remained virtually the same at 4.7 percent a year. During the remainder of the 1970’s, however, growth of real business expenditures for plant and equipment slowed sharply to a rate of 2.0 percent growth in the 1973-80 period. In the low-trend version, 2.8-percent growth per year is projected for the 1980-85 period. In other words, the rate of change in business investment apparent in the 1970’s will continue for the first half of the 1980’s after an initial Upsurge in 1981. After 1985, the more representative long-term growth of (1) purchases of residential structures; (2) investment in nonresidential structures; (3) purchases of producers’ durable equipment; and (4) changes in inventories of businesses. Historically, gross domestic investment has accounted for 15.0 to 16.0 percent of GNP. At the same time, on a year-over-year basis, it is one of the most volatile elements of final output. This is because invest ment, more than any other component of GNP, repre sents the anticipations of business for future profits and potential growth and, thus, tends to fluctuate rather sharply as those expectations change. For example, in 1975, domestic investment fell to $155 billion in real terms (more than $60 billion below the 1973 level), a 12.5-percent share of GNP (down from more than 17.0 percent in 1973). But, by 1980, invest ment had recovered and accounted for about 15.0 per cent of GNP. Because of its anticipatory role, investment is an important key in determining the long-run growth potential of the economy. In essence, it represents cur rent commitments to future growth and is an important source of productivity gains. In the three alternatives, gross investment is expected to grow far more rapidly than during the 1970’s. Between 1973 and 1980, gross investment declined at an average annual rate of .9 per cent. The low-trend model projects an average growth rate of 5.3 percent during 1980-90, while the expecta tions in the high-trend versions are for 8.8-percent an nual growth. The housing sector of the economy is one of the more volatile segments of fixed investment expenditures. The demand for new housing has been expanding steadily throughout the postwar period. The number of house holds increased by more than 30 million during 1955— 80, an average annual increase of 2.1 percent, or 1.3 million new households every year. The rate of new household formation has also accelerated, from 2.0 per cent in 1955 to 2.7 percent in 1980, not only because of the baby-boom bulge, but also because of an increasing tendency toward single-person households. At the same time, the ability of the housing sector to meet the demand for new housing is greatly dependent on financial considerations, especially the availability of credit. Because interest rates and credit availability are closely tied to the business cycle, swings in real output can have a substantial impact on housing. For example, during the 1975 recession, total private housing starts dropped more than 43.0 percent from the peak of 2.4 million in 1972. Real expenditures for residential invest ment fell by 34.0 percent during the same period. When the supply and demand considerations are combined, it is reasonable to assume that the recessions of 1970, 1975, and 1980 have created much pent-up de mand for new housing. However, demand for housing has been changing. Many families are giving up the “American dream” of a single-family home because of 15 trend version to 4.0 percent average growth in the highII case. The stock of business inventories is expected, in all projections, to expand slowly relative to GNP, re flecting historical trends. rates (4.7 percent) will return, as a result of the impact of corporate tax assumptions and increasing corporate revenues. In the high-trend versions, quite different assump tions are made regarding both the timing and intensity of fiscal incentives for business investment. Investment in plant and equipment is expected to increase by 6.2 percent a year during 1980-85, then accelerate to 7.3 percent growth, topping $300 billion in 1990. This com ponent accounts for 14.0 percent of GNP in 1990 in both high-trend projections, up from an average of about 11.0 percent in the 1970’s. The tax assumptions and the resulting impact on business investment are based on the growing realization that long-term im provements in productivity growth will depend on new plant and equipment purchases. The impact of fixed business investment on the stock of private nonfarm capital7is shown in the following growth rates: Actual 1955-68 ........................................................ 1968-73 ........................................................ 1973-80 ............................................ 3.7 4.4 3.7 ________ Projected_ 1980-85 .......................................... 1985-90 .......................................... Low High-I High-II 3.4 4.2 4.1 5.4 4.1 5.5 The slowing growth of the capital stock in the 1973— 80 period will continue through 1985 in the low-trend version, before improving slightly during 1985-90. The assumptions underlying the high-trend versions lead to expectations of a strong recovery over the entire 1980 decade. The ratio of capital to hours paid in the nonfarm sec tor is a general measure of how much plant and equip ment is available to workers for producing output. The ratio is considered an important determinant of labor productivity growth. Between 1955 and 1975, this ratio expanded at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in real terms, increasing from $7,000 of capital available per workerhour in 1955 to $12,000 in 1975. Between 1975 and 1980, however, the ratio rose by only .6 percent each year, to $12,400. Only slight recoveries are projected for this ratio dur ing the first half of the 1980’s in the low- and high-I projections. In the low-trend version, this is a result of continuing slow growth in investment. In the high-I case, the much higher investment rates are offset by the higher assumed labor force growth rates (and conse quent increases in total hours paid). In the high-II ver sion, the high investment rates ‘combined with lower employment levels lead to the fairly strong annual growth of 2.2 percent over the 1980-85 period. After 1985, all three projections attain strong growth in the capital-hours ratio, ranging from 2.9 percent in the low- 16 Foreign trade. Both imports and exports have accounted for an increasing share of GNP, and this trend is expected to continue throughout the 1980-90 period. In current dollars, the balance on the current and long term capital account is assumed to be a policy variable with the long-term value of zero. Such a policy would maintain the current-dollar balance on goods and ser vices at a relatively low positive level. In the past, be cause import and export prices tended to move together in terms of both levels and rates, a zero current-dollar balance implied a zero constant-dollar balance. During the 1970’s, average import prices grew at a much faster rate did average export prices. The disparity was pri marily due to much higher petroleum prices, although world inflation generally was higher than in the United States. It is assumed that foreign prices will once again move at roughly the same pace as export prices during the projection period, but it is also expected that the dif ference in level will never be made up. Therefore, as the United States strives to maintain a current-dollar bal ance of trade, the impact on constant dollar trade will be a generally more rapid rate of growth in exports rel ative to imports, thereby improving the real balance of trade over time. Government The government portion of GNP comprises purchases of goods and services and compensation of employees. All other expenditures are excluded by defi nition. Real purchases by Federal, State, and local gov ernments accounted for almost 25.0 percent of GNP in 1968; since then, the share of GNP accounted for by purchases of goods and services has declined, reaching the 19.6-percent level by 1980. This drop was due al most entirely to the cessation of U.S. military involve ment in Vietnam. Real Federal purchases fell at an average rate of 1.4 percent during the 1968-80 period because of large de clines in defense spending. Federal purchases as a share of GNP fell sharply, from 12.1 percent in 1968 to 7.3 percent in 1980. State and local government purchases also declined as a proportion of GNP during 1968-70. The trend toward a smaller share of production accounted for by government purchases is expected to continue throughout the 1980’s in the two high-trend versions. In all projections, Federal defense purchases grow sharply in real terms during the early 1980’s, and slow slightly after 1985. Defense purchases are project ed to stabilize at about 5.0 percent of GNP over the lat ter half of the decade. As noted earlier, virtually no change in military force levels is assumed during the 1980’s. Therefore, the increases in real defense expendi tures are expected to be replacing obsolete materiel and performing research and development for more sophisti cated weapons systems. Nondefense purchases, in contrast, are expected to decline at a 1.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate between 1980 and 1985, and to grow by less than 1.0 percent each year after 1985 in all projections. This reflects the assumption that many programs will experience rela tively slower growth or be scaled back in the 1980’s, while the primary emphasis shifts to defense prepared ness. The net effect is to drop Federal purchases of goods and services from 7.3 percent of GNP in 1980 to about 6.5 percent by 1990 in the high-trend versions. In the low-trend projection, Federal purchases will continue to account for roughly the same proportion of GNP throughout the decade. In the State and local sector, the largest change from prior trends is expected in the education sector. As the baby-boom generation matures, the number of school enrollees should decline smoothly over the entire de cade. A sharp slowdown in the growth of educational purchases is projected to 1985, with absolute declines subsequently. The children of the baby-boom generation are expected to increase educational demand beginning around 1985, but the effect will be mild and relatively short-lived. Purchases of goods less compensation for public safe ty are projected to decline sharply in the early 1980’s as the rapidly increasing cost of fuel affects the purchases of new equipment for police and firefighters. The re maining categories of State and local purchases are expected to grow much less rapidly over the coming de cade. The net effect of these considerations is to lower State and local purchases from 12.3 percent of GNP in 1980 to the 10.0- to 11.0-percent range in 1990. It should be emphasized that government’s declining share of GNP during the 1980’s does not mean that gov ernment purchases are expected to decline in absolute terms. Rather, the expected growth rate— 1.8 percent between 1980 and 1990—is somewhat lower than the overall GNP growth rate. In summary, three scenarios have been set for eco nomic growth in the 1980’s: the first reflecting moderate increases and the others showing a return to the strong growth of the 1950’s and 1960’s. With the assumptions underlying the projections, the most notable occurrence in the 1980’s is the shift in spending from the public sector to the private sector, especially for investment. However, the change depends on the fiscal assumptions discussed earlier; with other assumptions, the results could be different. These factors are detailed in table 3. During the 25 years between 1955 and 1980, the number of jobs in creased from 68.7 million to 105.6 million, or about 1.5 million jobs a year. During this period, many important shifts occurred. Military force levels declined from 3 million in 1955 to 2.1 million in 1980. Agricultural em ployment also declined, from 6.4 million to 2.8 million jobs, because of increases in farm productivity. Civilian government employment, in contrast, grew from 9.4 percent of total employment in 1955 to 14.6 percent in 1980, an increase of 8.9 million. Most of this growth— 8.3 million jobs— occurred in State and local govern ment. Private nonfarm employment increased by 33 mil lion jobs, a growth of more than 1.3 million each year, increasing its share of employment from 76.8 percent in 1955 to 80.8 percent in 1980. Several major changes in employment are expected to occur in the alternatives. Total employment is expected to increase at an average rate of 1.6 percent each year between 1980 and 1985 in the low-growth and high-II versions. This amounts to 2.2 million jobs a year, a more rapid increase than that projected for the total la bor force— 1.7 percent each year, or 1.9 million new la bor force entrants. The higher employment growth re flects the relatively rapid decline in the unemployment rate following the 1980 slowdown. In the high-! ver sion, a higher labor force projection, combined with an even more rapid decline in the unemployment rate, yields total annual employment growth of 2.4 percent between 1980 and 1985, or slightly fewer than 2.7 mil lion jobs a year. In all alternatives, the rate of employment growth be gins to slow in the latter half of the decade, to 1.4, 1.9, and 1.5 percent, respectively, for the low-, high-I, and high-II models. This reflects the projected slowdown in labor force growth after 1985. The share of jobs between the public and private sec tors is an important determinant of the level of real supply GNP, because productivity in the public sector is assumed to be nearly constant.8Therefore, if public em ployment accounted for larger shares of total employ ment, the associated growth in real GNP would be reduced. Federal employment is expected to expand during the 1980-90 period, but the rate of growth (.1 percent annually) is considerably less than the total em ployment growth expected in all three alternatives. The military force level is projected to virtually stabilize at the current level of 2.1 million persons for all alterna tives. State and local government employment is also expected to grow less rapidly than total employment. In the latter half of the 1950’s and during all of the 1960’s, the growth in State and local employment was due, in large part, to very rapid growth in public education. School enrollment, however, moderated during the lat ter 1970’s. The echo effect from the baby-boom genera tion will begin to be seen around 1985, but will be Employment and honrs The number of jobs, the average number of hours paid per job, and the level of real output per hour are key determinants of potential output in the economy. 17 Tab le 3. Labor fo rce, em p lo ym en t, productivity, and gross national product, 1955, 1988, 1973, and 1980, and p ro je c te d to 1985 and 1990 [Employment data in thousands ] A ctual P rojected C ategory Total labor force (including military) ................................................. Unemployed ................................................................................................... Employed (persons co n ce p t)........................................................................ Adjustment factor (persons to jo b s ) ........................................................... Employment (jobs concept) ............................................................................. General governm ent....................................................................................... Federal ........................................................................................................ M ilita ry ...................................................................................................... C iv ilia n ...................................................................................................... State and lo c a l............................................................................................ Private ............................................................................................................. A g ricu ltu re ................................................................................................... Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ Private average annual hours per job ........................................................... A g ricu ltu re ................................................................................................... Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ Private GNP per hour (1972 dollars) .............................................................. A g ricu ltu re ................................................................................................... Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ Total GNP (billions of 1972 d o lla rs )................................................................ General governm ent....................................................................................... Private ............................................................................................................. A g ricu ltu re ................................................................................................... Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ 1885 1955 1888 1973 1980 68,072 2,853 65,219 3,438 68,657 9,520 4,779 3,049 1,730 4,741 59,137 6,424 52,713 2,126 2,473 2,083 4.56 1.84 4.95 657.5 84.6 572.9 29.3 543.6 82,272 2,817 79,455 4,409 83,864 14,521 5,670 3,535 2,135 8,851 69,343 3,663 65,680 2,001 2,354 1,981 6.67 3.36 6.89 1,058.1 132.4 925.7 29.0 896.7 91,040 4,305 86,735 4,557 91,292 15,185 4,354 2,326 2,028 10,831 76,107 3,206 72,901 1,961 2,290 1,943 7.48 4,30 7.65 1,255.0 139.1 1,115.9 31.6 1,084.3 106,821 7,448 99,373 6,188 105,561 17,481 4,402 2,102 2,300 13,079 88,080 2,823 85,257 1,884 2,311 1,870 7.99 6.21 8.06 1,480.7 155.2 1,325.5 40.5 1,285.0 1850 Low H igh-I H ig h -ll Low H igh-I H ig h -ll 117,114 8,049 109,065 4,697 113,762 17,587 4,355 2,129 2,226 13,232 96,175 2,622 93,553 1,856 2,301 1,844 8.35 6.05 8.43 1,653.3 163.0 1,490.3 36.5 1,453.8 120,381 6,504 113,877 5,090 118,967 17,587 4,355 2,129 2,226 13,232 101,380 2,922 98,458 1,865 2,301 1,852 8.58 6.25 8.66 1,784.7 163.0 1,621.7 42.0 1,579.7 117,114 6,899 110,215 4,705 114,920 17,441 4,209 2,129 2,080 13,232 97,479 2,922 94,557 1,862 2,301 1,848 8.89 6.26 8.99 1,775.1 161.4 1,613.7 42.1 1,571.6 124,504 7,342 117,162 4,796 121,958 18,106 4,429 2,129 2,300 13,677 103,852 2,334 101,518 1,819 2,246 1,809 9.17 7.18 9.23 1,902.4 169.7 1,732.7 37.6 1,695.1 130,252 5,125 125,127 5,524 130,651 18,106 4,429 2,129 2,300 13,677 112,545 2,634 109,911 1,825 2,246 1,815 9.75 7.95 9.80 2,172.6 169.7 2,002.9 47.0 1,955.9 124,504 5,507 118,997 4,947 123,944 17,886 4,209 2,129 2,080 13,677 108,058 2,634 103,424 1,824 2,246 1,814 10.36 8.00 10.43 2,171.8 167.1 2,004.7 47.3 1,957.4 A verage annual rate o f change Total labor force (including military) ................................................. Unemployed ................................................................................................... Employed (persons co n ce p t)........................................................................ Adjustment factor (persons to jo b s ) ........................................................... Employment (jobs concept) ............................................................................. General governm ent....................................................................................... Federal ........................................................................................................ M ilita ry ..................................................................................................... C iv ilia n ..................................................................................................... State and lo c a l........................................................................................... Private . , ........................................................................................................ A g ricu ltu re ................................................................................................... Nonagriculture ........................................................................................... Private average annual hours per job ........................................................... A g ricu ltu re ................................................................................................... Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ Private GNP per hour (1972 dollars) .............................................................. A g ricu ltu re ................................................................................................... Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ Total GNP (billions of 1972 dollars) ................................................. General g overnm ent...................................................................................... Private ............................................................................................................. A g ricu ltu re ................................................................................................... Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ 1955-68 1SS8-73 1.5 -.1 1.5 1.9 1.5 3.3 1.3 1.1 1.6 4.9 1.2 - 4 .2 1.7 - .5 - .4 - .4 3.0 4.7 2.6 3.7 3.5 3.8 -.1 3.9 2.0 8.9 1.8 .7 1.7 .9 5.1 - 3.0 .0 4.1 1.9 2.6 2.1 -.4 -.6 -.4 2.3 5.1 2.1 3.5 1.0 3.8 1.7 3.9 1973-80 1880-85 2.3 8.1 2.0 4.5 2.1 2.0 .2 - 1 .4 ■ 1.8 2.7 2.1 -1 .8 2.3 -.6 .1 -.5 .9 5.4 .7 2.4 1.6 2.5 3.6 2.5 _ 1.9 1.6 1.9 -5 .4 1.5 .1 - .2 .3 - .7 .2 1.8 -1 .5 1.9 - .3 -.1 - .3 .9 -.5 .9 2.2 1.0 2.4 -2.1 2.5 2.4 -2 .7 2.8 - 3 .8 2.4 .1 - .2 .3 - .7 .2 2.9 .7 2.9 - .2 -.1 - .2 1.4 .1 1.4 3.8 1.0 4.1 .7 4.2 1£35-80 1.9 - 1 .5 2.1 - 5 .3 1.7 (’ ) - .9 .3 - 2 .0 .2 2.0 .7 2.1 - .2 -.1 - .2 2.2 .2 2.2 3.7 .8 4.0 .8 4.1 1.2 - 1 .8 1.4 .4 1.4 .6 .3 ( ') .7 .7 1.5 -2 .3 1.6 - .4 - .5 - .4 1.9 3.5 1 .8 '. 2.8 .8 3.1 .6 3.1 1.6 -4 .7 1.9 1.6 1.9 .6 .3 (’ > .7 .7 2.1 -2 .1 2.2 - .4 - .5 - .4 2.6 4.9 2.5 4.0 .8 4.3 2.3 4.4 1.2 -4 .4 1.5 1.0 1.5 .5 <’ ) ( ') ( ') .7 1.7 -2.1 1.8 - .4 - .5 - .4 3.1 5.0 3.0 4.1 .7 4.4 2.4 4.5 ’ Less than 0.05 percent relatively insignificant until after 1990. The result is an annual growth in the number of education-related em ployees of .3 percent during the 1980-85 period, and annual declines of .5 percent during 1985-90. The de clines, however, will be somewhat offset by continued growth in other programs and the administrative em ployment associated with these programs, although at a less rapid rate than in the past. As a result, private em ployment is expected to expand more rapidly than total employment over the entire projection period in all al ternatives. Following are the proportion of private and government employment for 1980, 1985, and 1990: 1985 __________ 1990 1980 Low High-I High-ll Low High-I High-ll 83 .4 84.5 85 .2 84 .8 8 5 .2 86.1 85.6 2.7 2 .3 2.5 2.5 1.9 2 .0 2.1 . . 80.8 8 2 .2 82 .8 82.3 8 3 .2 84.1 83.4 . 16.6 15.5 14.8 15.2 14.8 13.9 14.4 F e d e ra l . . . 4 .2 3.8 3.7 3.7 3 .6 3.4 3 .4 12.4 11.6 11.1 11.5 11.2 10.5 11.0 tio n 6.5 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.0 5.2 O th e r 5 .9 5.8 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.5 5.8 P r i v a t e ............. F a rm .... N o n farm G o v e rn m e n t S ta te a n d lo c a l . . . Educa- 18 The declining share of government employment re flects the impact of demographic shifts, as well as the apparent public preference for a smaller government role in the civilian sector of the economy. Hours. Average weekly hours paid are projected to con tinue to decline at approximately the long-term histori cal rate. In the private nonfarm sector, the long-term decrease in weekly hours has been influenced by the treed toward more service employees, which lowers av erage hours because many work short weeks or on a part-time basis, and by the increase in female labor force participation, which began in the mid-1960’s. Many of these women took part-time positions. This contributed to the service sector effect which is project ed to continue ancj will cut averge weekly hours. Fe male labor force participation rates are also projected to grow at a rather strong pace during the 1980’s. Howev er, it is assumed that the disparity between part-time jobholding rates of men and women will diminish dur ing the 1980’s; thus, the growth of female labor force participation will no longer have an appreciable impact on the average workweek. Women are expected to be increasingly employed in all sectors of the economy. a l t e r n a t i v e p a t h s of growth encompass reason able possibilities for expansion of the economy during the 1980’s. The low-trend projection examines the im plications of a moderately expanding labor force, con tinued low growth in productivity, and high inflation. The high-trend projections study the effects of a more rapidly expanding labor force (high-I) coupled with more optimistic assumptions regarding both productivi ty and inflation. The projected range of real GNP growth averages between 2.5 and 3.9 percent annually over the 1980-90 period, yielding a difference among the alter native scenarios of $270 billion by 1990. The projections hinge on the underlying assumptions and could be significantly affected by even small changes in the latter. These are medium-term projections of theU.S. economy, and no attempt has been made to forecast cyclical fluctuations. The projections should not be construed as a forecast of a likely growth path but as the pro bable range of economic growth during the 1980’s. □ T he FOOTNOTES ' The projections are part of a BLS program of studies aimed at an alyzing long-run economic growth. The primary objective is to devel op projections of employment and occupational requirements under alternative assumptions. Other articles in the series discuss industry projections of output and employment and future trends in occupa tional demand. As part of a continuing program to assess the validity of BLS projections, future articles will evaluate the projections of the U.S. economy for 1980. For previous articles, see Norman C. Saunders, “The U.S. economy to 1990: two projections for growth,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 36-46; Arthur Andreassen, “Changing patterns of demand: BLS projections to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 47-55; Valerie A. Personick, “Industry output and employment: BLS projections to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1979, pp. 3-14; Thomas Nardone, “The Job Outlook in Brief, Based on the Occupational Out look Handbook, 1980-81 ’E dition,” Occupational O utlook Quarterly, Spring 1980, pp. 2-21; Paul T. Christy and Karen J. Horowitz, “Evaluation of b l s projections of 1975 output and employment,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1979, pp. 8—19; and Max L. Carey, “Evaluating the 1975 occupational employment projections,” Month ly Labor Review, June 1980, pp. 10-21. 2 See Lester C. Thurow, “A Fiscal Policy Model of the United States,” Survey o f Current Business, June 1969, pp. 45-64. The BLS economic growth model is a software system comprised of a modified version of the Thurow macroeconomic model, several demand submodels, and an input-output and industry level employment mod el. A detailed methodological description of the current model is be ing prepared for publication, as is a description of the operating system. ' The Department of Energy projections are taken from the energy forecasts developed for the Energy Information Agency’s Annual Re port to Congress, 1979 (June 1980), a medium international oil price version. They assume an average landed crude oil price of $37 per barrel by 1990, in 1979 dollars. 19 4 Projections of the Population of the United States: 1977 to 2050, Current Population Reports (Bureau of the Census, Series P-25, No. 704, 1977) and Projections of the Number of Households in the Unit ed States: 1979 to 2000, Current Population Reports (Bureau of the Census, Series P-25, No. 805, 1979). 5Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: a first look,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21. 6 A tremendous amount of material has been written on the reasons behind the slowdown in productivity growth. Major studies include R. Kutscher, G. Mark, and J. R. Norsworthy, “The productivity slowdown and the outlook to 1985,” Monthly Labor Review, May 1977, pp. 3-8; J. R. Norsworthy, M. Harper, and J. Kunze, “The Slowdown in Productivity Growth: an Analysis of Some Contributing Factors,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, 1979; P. Clark, “Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown,” Journal o f Finance, June 1978, pp. 967-75; D. Hudson and E. Jorgenson, “Energy Prices and the U.S. Economy, 1972-1976,” Data Resources Review, September 1976, pp. 1.24-1.37; J. Beebe, “A Note on Intersectoral Shifts and Aggregate Productivity Change,” Annals o f Economic and Social Measurement, Summer 1975, pp. 389-95; and E. Denison, Accounting for Slower Economic Growth (Washington, D.C. Brookings Institution, 1979). The estimates of capital stock developed in the projections are consistent with the gross stocks series presented in Fixed Nonresidential Business and Residential Capital in the United States, 192575 (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1976). 8By national income accounting conventions, there is no change over time in government productivity. Rather, it is assumed that real output for a government employee is equal to that person’s compen sation in the dollar base year (1972 in this case). Apparent changes in average real compensation reflect shifts in the grade structure of gov ernment employees over time. The outlook for industry output and employment through 1990 The future looks bright for service, durable goods, and high-technology industries; projections assume lower unemployment and taxes, higher investment and productivity, and continued oil scarcity Valerie A. P ersonick sion of public sector employment during the 1960’s re flected strong demand for teachers and other education al personnel as the baby-boom generation entered school, effects of the Vietnam war buildup, and in creases in government services resulting from “Great Society” and- other programs. Job growth in miscella neous service industries was also stronger than for the economy as a whole, while manufacturing, the largest sector in 1959, had a growth rate just about equal to the all-industries average. During the 1970’s, job growth accelerated in the sec tors defined as service-producing but slowed in manu facturing and government. Between 1969 and 1979, employment rose 4.0 percent annually in other (or mis cellaneous) services, 3.6 percent in finance, insurance, and real estate, and 3.0 percent in trade, but only 0.5 percent in manufacturing and 1.1 percent in govern ment. By the end of the decade, wholesale and retail trade had replaced manufacturing as the largest employ ment sector. The fast-growing miscellaneous services sector ranked third, having overtaken government. Thus, while almost 1 out of every 4 jobs was in a man ufacturing industry in 1959, by 1979 this sector accounted for only 1 out of every 5 jobs. In contrast, jobs in other services represented less than 1 of 7 in 1959, but by 1979 had expanded to almost 1 of 5. During the 1980’s, these trends are expected to con tinue under the conditions assumed by BLS for the 1990 economy. Other services is projected to continue to be the fastest-growing sector, accounting for more jobs than manufacturing by 1985. The employment shares of trade, mining, and finance, insurance, and real estate are The structure of employment in the United States has undergone considerable change in recent decades. Al though employment is growing in virtually all sectors of the economy, growth has been much more rapid in ser vice-producing industries than in goOds-producing in dustries. This trend is projected to continue under the economic conditions assumed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its revised projections for the next decade, although at a different pace. Three alternative scenarios for industry output and employment growth were prepared. The low-trend ver sion assumes a decline in the rate of expansion of the labor force, continued high inflation, moderate produc tivity gains, and modest increases in real output and employment. In high-trend version I, the economy is buoyed by larger labor force growth, much lower unem ployment rates, higher production, dampening of price increases, and greater improvements in productivity. The third alternative, high-trend II, is characterized by the rapid output growth of high-trend I but assumes the same labor force as the low-trend version. Produc tivity gains are quite substantial in this alternative. Summary of employment: ftrenis Between 1959 and 1969, total employment in the United States rose by 2.0 percent a year. The most rap id increase was posted by the government sector, which grew at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent. Expan- Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 20 also expected to rise over the next decade, while manu facturing, agriculture, transportation, communications, and public utilities, although posting gains during the 1980’s, are projected to represent smaller portions of all jobs. Under the low-trend assumptions, total employment will rise from 104.1 million in 1979 to 122.0 million by 1990, a net increase of 17.9 million jobs. In the hightrend high-employment model (version I), 26.5 million new jobs will be added to the 1979 level, for total em ployment of 130.7 million in 1990. In the high-trend low-employment model (version II), employment would reach 124.0 million by 1990. The rates of job increase between 1979 and 1990 in the low-trend and high-trend II versions (1.4 and 1.6 percent a year, respectively) represent a slowdown over the previous two decades, while the high-trend I rate of 2.1 percent represents a somewhat faster pace. fall from 7.1 percent in 1980 to 7.0 percent by 1985 and 6.0 percent by 1990. The more optimistic high-trend as sumptions are for a 5.5-percent unemployment rate in 1985 and 4.0 percent in 1990 in version I, and 6.0 per cent in 1985 and 4.5 percent in 1990 in version II. Gross national product. Gross national product ( g n p ) is projected to expand 2.4 percent annually between 1979 and 1990 in the low-trend version, and 3.8 percent in the high-trend versions. The low-trend estimate roughly corresponds to the experience o f the 1973-79 period, when real GNP increased at an average rate o f 2.8 per cent a year. Assumptions underlying the high-trend projections more closely resemble the growth path of an earlier period, 1955-68, during which the economy was expanding at a 3.7-percent annual pace. Taxes. In all cases, reductions in both personal income taxes and the effective corporate tax rate are assumed to take place throughout the decade. The high-growth al ternatives, in particular, incorporate an assumption of a vigorously pursued policy of investment incentives. Characteristics of the 1990 economy Labor force. The civilian labor force is expected to grow 1.6 percent a year between 1979 and 1990 in the lowtrend and high-trend II models, and 2.0 percent a year in the high-trend I model. Both rates are considerably smaller than the 2.7 percent average annual rate of ex pansion posted during 1975-79. The slowdown should occur as the last of the baby-boom generation enter the labor force. Under both labor force scenarios, two-thirds of the growth is provided by women. The first assumes that the proportion of women age 20 to 44 in the labor force will rise at an increasing rate until 1983; participation rates of men in most age groups are expected to decline, although not as fast as they did during the 1970’s. The second scenario assumes even faster growth for wom en’s participation rates, and a reversal of the decline in men’s rates: Productivity. The productivity slowdown which charac terized the 1970’s is assumed to at least stabilize during the 1980’s, as some of the contributory factors are mini mized or even reversed. The rate of productivity growth in the private sector declined from 3.0 percent a year during 1955-68 to 2.3 .percent between 1968 and 1973 and 0.9 percent between 1973 and 1980. Among the reasons cited for this drop are an influx of inexperienced labor force entrants, energy price shocks, investment in environmental protection and energy conservation rath er than in production, and less per-employee capital ac cumulation in general. In the coming decade, however, the baby-boom generation will be in the prime working age groups, creating a proportionately more experienced labor force. Investment in capital goods is projected to be stimulated by specific government policies, and businesses are expected to become more adept at responding to changes in energy resources. As a result, annual labor productivity growth in the private sector is projected to be 0.9 percent during 1980-85 and 1.9 per cent during 1985-90 in the low-trend forecast, 1.4 per cent and 2.6 percent in the high-trend I version, and 2.2 percent and 3.1 percent in the high-trend II model. _________ Projected_________ Low labor High labor force force Actual______scenario_____ scenario 1975 1979 1985 1990 1985 1990 Labor force (in m illion s)____ Men ................ Women ........... 92.6 55.6 37.0 102.9 59.5 43.4 Participation rate . . Men ................ W o m e n ........... 61.2 77.9 46.3 63.7 77.9 51.0 115.0 122.4 118.3 128.1 63.6 65.9 64.8 68.2 51.4 56.5 53.4 59.9 66.5 77.7 56.5 67.9 77.2 59.6 68.4 79.2 58.7 71.1 79.9 63.2 Ernergy assumptions Higher prices and uncertain supply for oil and natu ral gas, both domestic and foreign, have begun to force both conservation and a shift to other energy sources. During the 1980’s, these trends are projected to intensi fy. Domestic production of crude oil and natural gas and refined petroleum products is expected to remain virtually unchanged or decline slightly throughout the Unemployment rate. Somewhat offsetting the effects of slower labor force growth on job creation are assump tions about unemployment. The unemployment rate is assumed to decline following the 1980 recession and then level off within a range of possible full employment levels. In the low-trend forecast, the rate is assumed to 21 decade, while oil imports are assumed to be cut back drastically. In 1977, imports of crude oil accounted for almost one-third of total U.S. supply. That ratio has begun to turn down somewhat, and is expected to contin ue to decline to 21.5 percent by 1990 in the low-trend version, or to between 24.2 and 24.5 percent in the high-trend models. To the degree possible, the energy assumptions are based on the “1979 Annual Report to the Congress” of the U.S. Department of Energy.1(See table 1.) The midprice case of the department was chosen as the basis for the BLS projections. This case assumes that crude oil nominal prices will rise from $31.37 a barrel in 1979 to $51.14 in 1985, and to $81.33 in 1990. The depart ment’s projected rates of growth for domestic output and imports under these price conditions were applied to bl§ data to derive the 1985 and 1990 levels of do mestic production of various types of energy and the level of oil imports. Coal output is projected to boom as electric utilities and other industrial users substitute it for scarcer, more expensive oil in their production processes. This return to coal as an important energy source has already had an impact on the industry—coal production increased 20.3 percent in 1979 and 8.3 percent in 1980; employ ment jumped 25.6 percent in 1979 to a 25-year high of 265,000 jobs and held close to that level in 1980. Coal output in the low-trend projection is estimated to sus tain an 8.1 percent yearly growth, at least through 1985, after which the rate is expected to taper to 3.6 percent annually during 1985-90. In the high-trend ver sions, coal production will increase 9.1 to 9.4 percent a year during 1979-85, and 4.5 to 4.7 percent annually thereafter. The vigorous rates of growth projected for coal pro duction result not only from the assumption of strong domestic demand, but from substantial foreign demand as well. Exports of coal are expected to expand 5.7 per cent annually between 1977 and 1990 in the low-trend Tab!© 1. U.S. @n@Piy sypplly by sour©©, aetyal and projected, GGlostQd y©ar©, 1965-90 ^re je c te d Aetuai item Total domestic energy supply: Quadrillion BTU par year . . . ' ............... Coal: Quadrillion BTU par y s a r ...................... Parcant of total supply ......................... Domestic oil and gas: Quadrillion BTU par y s a r ...................... Parcsnt of total supply ......... ............... Nat oil and gas imports: Quadrillion BTU par y e a r ...................... Peroant of total supply ......................... Nuclear: Quadrillion BTU par year ...................... Percent of total supply ......................... le s s 1073 1®73 107® 1835 1880 53.7 75.0 78.4 79.3 81.6 89.1 13.4 25.0 14.4 19.2 15.0 19.1 17.4 21.9 25.0 30.6 29.3 32.9 34.2 63.7 44.3 59.1 40.2 51.3 39.6 49.9 36.9 45.2 38.3 43.0 5.4 10.1 14.0 18.7 % .9 1.2 17.6 22.4 17.7 22.3 12.9 15.8 12.5 14.0 3.0 3.8 2.8 3.5 5.6 6.9 8.2 9.2 S ource : U.S. Dspartmsnt of Energy, Energy Information Administration. 22 version, and 9.9 to 10.8 percent a year in the high-trend versions. Consumption of electricity'will rise during the 1980’s as an alternative energy source for both home heating and industrial production. Output is projected to grow 3.3 percent a year between 1979 and 1990 in the lowtrend version, and 4.4 percent a year in both high-trend scenarios. Coal is expected to be an increasingly impor tant input in the production of electricity, while nuclear power sources are assumed to expand only slightly over the next decade and account for a very small fraction of total electricity production. Final demand teernds Personal consumption expenditures accounted for nearly two-thirds of total gross national product in 1979, and while these outlays are projected to grow somewhat more slowly than total GNP over the next decade, they will still be by far its largest component. Among consumption categories, expenditures for nondurable items, such as food and household supplies, are expected to continue to grow more slowly than out lays for durable goods and services. This long-term trend reflects the tendency of consumers to spend less of their budget on necessary staples and shift more dis cretionary income to higher-priced durable goods or to recreation and other services as disposable incomes rise. Food and tobacco, which together accounted for al most 29 percent of the personal consumption budget in 1955, are projected to represent only 17 to 19 percent in 1990. Tobacco expenditures, in particular, are expected to have the second-fastest rate of decline of all personal consumption categories. (The most rapid drop is projected for gasoline and oil purchases.) One of the fastest-growing components of personal expenditures projected is medical care services. This item accounted for 8.3 percent of personal consumption expenditures in 1972 and 8.7 percent in 1979, but is expected to represent more than 10 percent of such con sumption in 1990. One of the main causes for rapid projected growth of real medical care expenditures will be an aging population. In 1979, the number of persons age 65 or older was 24.7 million, or 11.2 percent of the total population. In 1990, 29.8 million people, or 12.2 percent of the total, will be in this age group.2 Other categories of personal consumption expendi tures projected to rise rapidly include amusements and recreation services, and airline transportation. Expendi tures for recreation have been steadily growing as a share of all personal consumption expenditures, from about 5.7 percent in 1955 to 6.3 percent in 1968 and 7.9 percent in 1979. In 1990, they are projected to ac count for between 8.7 and 9.7 percent of all personal consumption expenditures. Airline transportation is P e r s o n a l c o n s u m p tio n d o m i n a n t expected to be the second-fastest growing component. Outlays for consumer durables are projected to in crease as a percentage of total personal consumption ex penditures, particularly for household furnishings; home electronic equipment such as radios, televisions, video recorders, and personal computers; and motor vehicles. Under the low-trend version, most of the gains will oc cur in the second half of the decade, while the hightrend models assume the recovery from the 1980 reces sion will be swifter and purchases of consumer durables will rise rapidly throughout the decade. however, the rate of new household formation was ac celerating, reflecting both the maturing of the babyboom generation and a trend toward more single-person households. The demand for homeownership that was pent up during the recession years is projected to spur residential investment expenditures during the first half of the 1980’s; growth is estimated at 2.2 percent a year between 1979 and 1985 in the low-trend model and 4.5 to 4.8 percent in the high-trend models. After 1985, however, the rate of new household formation is expected to decline, and residential investment growth drops to 1.0 percent annually in the low-trend version and 3.2 to 3.5 percent in the high-trend scenarios. Investment growth the strongest. Investment, currently about 15 percent of final demand, is projected to show significantly more growth than the 0.6-percent annual rate posted between 1973 and 1979, especially in the second half of the next decade. The largest category of investment, producers’ durable equipment, rises 5.0 per cent annually in the low-trend version during the latter years of the 1980’s, in line with the long-term historical rate of growth; the high-trend versions predict an 8.1-percent annual expansion over the same period. The rapid gain in the high-trend models reflects the better business conditions and strong tax incentive programs assumed in these versions. A list of the specific types of equipment for which de mand is projected to be greatest reflects the full fruition of the “age of electronics.” Leading the advance will be purchases of computers and peripheral equipment. Rap idly growing investment demand is also expected for optical equipment, typewriters and other office equip ment, radio and communication equipment, and scienti fic and controlling instruments. These products are all characterized by or contribute to rapid advances in technology. As older machines or production processes become less efficient or even obsolete, businesses are expected to buy more of these high-technology items in relation to other capital goods to remain competitive. Equipment for which slow growth in investment de mand is expected includes special industry machinery; engines, turbines, and generators; and office furniture. Business investment in new plants is projected to recover more slowly from the 1980 recession than in vestment in equipment, due to the longer lead-times re quired. After 1985, construction of new plants and other business structures is expected to rebound at a rate of growth in line with the long-term, pre-recession rate of 4.7 percent. Projections of residential investment show a very dif ferent pattern than those for other types of investment. This sector was the most severely hit by the 1975 and 1980 recessions—new housing starts plummeted from a* decade-high 2.4 million in 1972 to 1.3 million in 1980; expenditures for residential investment declined by 0.9 percent a year during 1973-79. Over the same period, Foreign trade will grow rapidly. Exports and imports have been rising over time as a share of GNP, reflecting the growing economic interdependence of the United States and the rest of the world. This trend is projected to continue into the next decade in all scenarios. In 1955, exports accounted for 4.7 percent of final de mand; by 1979 that share had risen to 9.9 percent, and is expected to climb to between 11.5 and 12.9 percent in 1990. Imports represented 3.6 percent of GNP in 1955, 7.4 percent in 1979, and are projected to account for 9.1 to 9.7 percent in 1990. A wide variety of products is exported from the United States each year. Chief among them in the past have been food and feed grains, and other agricultural products; motor vehicles and parts; aircraft; chemicals; and construction, mining, and oilfield machinery. These goods are projected to continue to account for a sizable share of exports in the coming years, but they are expected to be joined by computers, electronic compo nents, and coal as important export goods. Plastic prod ucts exports are expected to grow much faster than the average for all exports, but not as rapidly as in the past. As the import share of GNP rises, raw materials pur chases are becoming less significant compared to im ports of finished capital and consumer goods, and this trend is expected to continue. Imports of crude petro leum are assumed to decline drastically, from 31 per cent of the total supply of oil and natural gas in 1977 to between 21.5 and 24.5 percent by 1990. The largest share of imported merchandise is accounted for by motor vehicles and parts— 13.5 per cent in 1977. As a percentage of the total value of out put of all cars, trucks, buses,' vans, and spare parts purchased in the United States, imports grew from less than 2 percent in 1963 to 12.5 percent by 1977 and to 13.8 percent in 1979. Further gains for imported motor vehicles are projected as the domestic auto industry struggles to recover from the devastating 1980 reces sion. The value of the import share is projected to top 15 percent in 1985 in all three scenarios. After that point, however, it declines somewhat to about 14.4 per 23 25.1 million young adults between 18 and 24, compared with 46.9 million and 29.3 million in 1979.4 The only area of State and local spending expected to show any increase is the health field. It is assumed that purchases of goods and services for public health will just about keep pace with the rate of growth of the economy as a whole. cent by 1990. The downturn is expected to occur, as American cars begin to compete effectively with gas economizing imports, and more foreign automakers set up factories in the United States. Motorcycle and bicycle manufacturing is the industry with the largest proportion of imports; it is expected to rank first during the next decade as well, with imports holding an almost steady 65-percent share. Radio and television imports are projected to continue to dominate the output of that industry, rising from 39 percent of total output in 1977 to about 49 percent in 1990 in the low-trend forecast, and to about 46 percent in the hightrend models. Among other industries with large vol umes of imports, rising import shares are projected for steel and primary nonferrous metals; steady or declining shares are expected for imports of apparel, leather prod ucts (including footwear), electronic components, and paper products. Industry output The projections of final demand by industry were multiplied by an input-output table to yield projections of the domestic output required by each industry to meet that final demand. The table was based on the 1972 input-output matrix published by the Department of Commerce,5 with several of the original coefficients modified to reflect 1977 Commerce Department data or other information on recent trends. Among the indus tries for which special studies or assumptions were made are the metals sectors, textiles, motor vehicles, the service sectors, and the energy industries. Government share dipping. Government purchases3 as a whole are projected to grow somewhat more slowly than total GNP in the coming decade, but wide variation is assumed for different functions within the public sec tor. For example, emphasis at the Federal level is expected to swing back to national defense. In past years, defense purchases have been declining in real terms as a proportion of GNP. Real outlays for defense dropped 7.3 percent annually between 1968 and 1973 as the Vietnam war drew to a close, and then contracted further, by an average of 0.3 percent each year through 1979. Sharp increases in defense spending are expected for the 1980’s, particularly during the first half. Pur chases are projected to grow 5.3 to 5.7 percent a year between 1979 and 1985, rising 1.5 to 2.1 percent annu ally thereafter. All of the extra real defense expenditures are assumed to be for materiel; the size of the armed forces is pro jected to remain unchanged at 2.1 million. Among the industries particularly affected by the projected defense buildup are ordnance (which includes tanks), guided missiles, aircraft, ship and boat building and repair, and radio and other communication equipment. In contrast, the nondefense portion of Federal pur chases of goods and services is expected to show no growth over the next decade. As a share of total final demand, Federal nondefense purchases decline from 2.3 percent of GNP in 1979 to 1.9 percent by 1990 in the low-trend version, 1.7 percent in high-trend version I, and 1.5 percent in high-trend version II. Expenditures for goods and services by State and lo cal governments, which accounted for 12.1 percent of GNP in 1979, will show only minimal growth during the 1980’s. Education expenditures are actually projected to decline between 1985 and 1990, as the school- and col lege-age population shrinks. In the latter year, there will be only about 45.3 million children age 5 to 17 and Food production slows. As real incomes rise, purchases of food for home consumption tend to level off. Food purchases are projected to grow only slightly faster than the population, and considerably more slowly than purchases of other commodities. This slowdown will affect almost all of the food industries, and indirectly, the agricultural industries. The only food industries expected to post output gains at least equal to total GNP growth are those producing alcoholic beverages and soft drinks. Domestic output of alcoholic bever ages, including beer and wine, is assumed to keep pace with rising incomes, while growth in the soft drink in dustry will arise from higher levels of exports. Little growth in other nondurable goods industries. Sever al other nondurable manufacturing industries, such as tobacco manufacturing, paper products, cleaning prepa rations, and leather products, are also expected to ex hibit only moderate output growth over the next decade. The output of the refined petroleum products industry is assumed to actually decline as demand shrinks dramatically. Partly as a result of the petroleum cutback, output of the nondurable goods sector will de cline steadily as a share of total output. (See table 2.) Although the output of the nondurable goods manu facturing sector is projected to show only moderate overall growth, several component industries are expected to post faster-than-average gains. These in clude the chemical products, drugs, apparel, and print ing and publishing industries. Growth strong fo r durable goods. The durable goods portion of manufacturing, unlike nondurables, is pro jected to grow faster than the all-industries average. Be tween 1979 and 1990, production is expected to expand 24 T a fe l® 2 . @ ro @ © p r o d y e t © r lg S m a tlin ig 1 b y m a j o r s ® e t ® r , a e t y a S a n d p r o j e c t e d , s ® S ® c t® d y e a r s , U S S S - i© ilU io n s o f 1S72 dolla rs A ctual P re jssted Ind u stry e se te r le s s 10SS Total p riv a te ............................................................ Agriculture .......................................................................... N cnagriculture...................................................................... Mining .......................................................................... C onstruction................................................................ Manufacturing ............................................................ Durable goods ....................................................... Nondurable g o o d s .................................................. Transportation, communications, and public utilities ................................................................... .. Transportation ....................................................... C om m unications.................................................... Public utilities ......................................................... Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................ Wholesale .............................................................. R e ta il........................................................................ Finance, insurance, and /e a l estate ...................... Other services2 ......................................................... Government enterprises .......................................... Rest of world and statistical discrepancy ............ 1889 1080 1070 Low -trend H igh-trend 1 H igh-trend 11 Lew -trend High-trend 1 H igh-trend 11 629.5 27.8 601.7 13.3 45.5 171.2 100.9 70.3 951.9 29.5 922.4 18.2 55.8 277.2 170.3 108.8 1,329.1 34.9 1,294.2 21.0 58.3 368.0 223.5 144.5 1,490.3 36.5 1,453.8 25.2 70.8 411.6 251.7 159.9 1,621.7 42.0 1,579.7 28.9 75.5 448.4 277.9 170.5 1,613.7 42.1 1,571.6 26.6 75.5 444.2 274.7 169.5 1,732.7 37.6 1,695.1 27.1 76.3 474.6 294.6 180.0 2,002.9 47.0 1,955.9 30.1 87.1 554.3 354.7 199.6 2,004.7 47.3 1,957.4 29.7 88.0 550.9 350.6 200.3 55.4 29.9 11.5 14.0 115.4 42.0 73.4 93.5 83.6 11.8 7.9 92.6 43.4 23.8 25.3 173.6 70.6 103.0 152.9 127.2 16.8 8.1 141.1 55.9 50.3 34.8 248.1 103.4 144.8 227.5 183.3 21.0 25.9 175.7 63.3 73.0 39.4 271.8 114.4 157.4 245.8 205.2 25.1 22.6 187.3 67.9 77.6 41.8 298.1 124.2 171.9 268.9 220.1 26.7 31.8 186.3 67.5 77.2 41.6 294.4 123.5 170.9 266.9 218.9 26.6 32.2 218.7 73.7 99.5 45.5 316.0 132.6 183.4 284.9 239.0 28.5 30.0 244.8 83.8 110.4 50.6 365.0 154.8 210.2 324.7 276.9 31.9 41.1 244.0 83.3 109.8 50.9 366.6 154.6 212.0 329.4 278.1 32.1 38.6 A verage annual rate o f change A ctual 1070-ms 10S0WSS Low -trend Total p riv a te ........................................................... Agriculture .......................................................................... N cnagriculture..................................................................... Mining .......................................................................... C onstruction................................................................ Manufacturing ........................................................... Durable goods ........................... ........................... Nondurable g o o d s .................................................. Transportation, communications, and public utilities ..................................................................... Transportation ...................................................... Com m unications.................................................... Public utilities ...................... .................................. Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................ Wholesale .............................................................. R e ta il........................................................................ Finance, insurance, and real estate ...................... Other services2 ......................................................... Government enterprises .......................................... Rest of world and statistical discrepancy ............. H igh-trend I H igh-trend II Low -trend H igh-trend 1 H igh-trend 11 4.2 .6 4.4 3.2 2.1 4.9 5.4 4.3 3.4 1.7 3.4 1.4 .4 2.9 2.8 3.1 1.9 .7 2.0 3.1 3.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 3.4 3.1 3.4 4.2 4.4 3.3 3.7 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.4 3.2 3.5 2.7 3.1 .6 3.1 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.2 2.4 4.3 2.3 4.4 2.3 2.9 4.3 5.0 3.2 4.4 2.4 4.5 2.2 3.1 4.4 5.0 3.4 5.3 3.8 7.5 6.1 4.2 5.3 3.4 4.5 4.3 3.6 .3 4.3 2.6 7.8 3.2 3.6 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.7 2.3 12.3 3.7 2.1 6.4 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.9 3.0 -2 .2 4.8 3.3 7.5 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.1 4.1 3.5 4.7 3.2 7.4 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 3.0 4.0 3.7 4.5 3.1 6.4 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.6 4.8 5.5 4.3 7.3 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.7 3.6 5.3 5.5 4.3 7.3 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.9 3.8 3.7 2 Includes private households. 1Gross product originating represents the value added by an industry after costs of materials and secondary products made in other industries have been subtracted from total output. 2.5 percent a year in the low-trend version, compared to 2.4 percent for total private-sector output. Correspond ing figures for the high-trend version are 4.2 to 4.3 per cent for durable goods versus 3.8 percent for the total. Spurring the rapid increase in durable goods output are the investment, defense, and personal consumption as sumptions discussed previously. Among specific industries in the durable manufactur ing sector projected to enjoy substantial output growth are computers; optical equipment; construction, mining, and oilfield machinery; typewriters and other office ma chines; electronic components; material- handling equip ment; photographic equipment; and medical and dental instruments. The computer industry, in fact, is expected to lead all industries studied in terms of output increase. As is well known, output of computer equipment has burgeoned in s - g o 1£38-71 25 in the past few decades; its 11.6-percent annual rate of increase between 1958 and 1979 surpassed that off all other industries studied. Growth came in response to greater demand for information processing as well as from expanding applications of computer technology to such fields as biotechnology and industrial robots. New uses and markets for computer technology will continue to spur output in the coming decade, at projected rates of increase ranging from 7.6 to 10.1 percent a year. In 1959, service industries accounted for 13.3 percent of total private output; in 1979 the share was 13.8 percent. Service industries are expected to hold this steady share of output throughout the 1980’s in all three scenarios. Within the service sector, the most rapid output growth is projected for the amusement and recreation S e r v ic e s o u tp u t g r o w th in lin e w ith r e s t o f e c o n o m y . expected to expand more rapidly than that of other re tail businesses. Output of the mining sector is projected to keep pace with total private output after decades of slower-thanaverage growth. The rapid increase projected for coal production is expected to outweigh the minimal growth assumed for crude oil production and the absolute de clines anticipated in copper mining and nonferrous ores mining. In addition to coal, above-average domestic output gains are also projected for iron ores and chemi cal mining. Table 3 summarizes the low-path industry output forecast, showing the most- and least-rapidly growing or declining industries for 1979-90. In the high-trend versions (which assume more purchases ' of durable equipment), transportation services, amusement and recreation services, electronic components, and chemical mining drop off the list of the 10 fastest-growing indus tries (but remain within the top 20), and are replaced by those manufacturing radios and televisions, typewrit ers and other office equipment, material handling equip ment, and telephone and telegraph apparatus. industry and the medical industries. Amusement and recreation services expanded by about 4.1 percent annu ally between 1958 and 1979. The same pace is expected for the 1979-90 period in the low-trend version, while the high-trend models project average annual growth of 5.4 to 5.6 percent. For the medical industries, an in crease in output of doctors’ and dentists’ services is expected to average 3.3 to 4.7 percent a year between 1979 and 1990; output of hospitals is projected to ex pand by 3.6 to 5.1 percent; and annual output growth of other medical services is projected to be in the 3.0to 5.0=percent range. These average rates are all higher than the 2.4- to 3.8-percent range forecast for output of the total private economy during 1979-90. Construction pattern mixed. In all scenarios, the con struction sector grows faster than the all-industries av erage between 1979 and 1985, but more slowly between 1985 and 1990. In the first half of the decade, rising res idential construction is projected to stimulate this in dustry, but in the second half, a dropoff in new home construction is expected to more than offset the begin nings of a rebound in business construction of factories, offices, and public utilities. Shrinking government out lays for school and road construction are also expected to dampen the output growth of this sector. Industry employment . Employment projections at the industry level are derived from the projections of output by industry, but the two are far from strictly parallel. The differences stem from the varying estimates of labor productivity by industry and of expected changes in the average workweek. Thus, although output in the low-trend ver sion is projected to decline in only 4 of the 150 indus tries studied, employment drops are expected for 33 industries as a result of expected productivity growth in the private economy. In high-trend version I, only two industries experience output declines, but 24 show em ployment reductions. For the high-trend II case, output drops in two industries but employment falls in 30. (See table 4.) The projected upturn in productivity is somewhat off set by a continued decline in the average workweek. Average weekly hours in the private sector dropped from 39.9 in 1959 to 38.3 in 1969, and further, to 36.6, in 1979. By 1990, hours paid are projected to average 35.0 a week in the low-trend model and 35.1 in the high-trend models. While employment is expected to grow more slowly than in the recent past, at least in the low-trend version and high-trend II (which are based on a smaller labor force than high-trend I), the distribution of employment among major industry sectors in all versions will con tinue to change largely in line with past trends. (See ta bles 5 and 6.) Variations expected in other industry sectors. Trade, -which represented 18.7 percent of total private-sector output in 1979, is projected to hold about the same share in 1990. Both the wholesale and retail portions will grow at about the same pace, although within retail trade, output of eating and drinking establishments is T a b !® 3 . L o w - tre n d p r o je c te d o u t p u t c h a n g e s f o r © e le c te d I n d u s t r ie s , 1 ® 7 ® -® 0 in du stry A verage annual rate e f o u tp ut change (in p ercent) All private in du strie s................................................................... 2.4 Fastest-growing: Computers and peripheral equipment ........................................ Communications, except radio and te le visio n ........................... . Coal m in in g ....................................................................................... Radio and television b roadcasting............................................... Transportation services ................................................................ Optical and ophthalmic equipment ............................................ Amusement and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................................... Electronic com ponents................................................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ........................................ Construction, mining, and oilfield m a ch ine ry......................... 7.6 6.4 6.0 5.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 Slowest-growing or declining: Petroleum refining and related products ................................... Copper ore m in in g .......................................................................... Private households ........................................................................ Nonferrous metal ores m in in g ...................................................... Logging ............................................................................................ Barber and beauty s h o p s .............................................................. Railroad e q u ip m e n t........................................................................ Gas u tilitie s ....................................................................................... Tobacco manufacturing ................................................................ - 1 .6 - .3 -.3 -.3 .0 .0 .1 .5 .5 Services continue to pace growth. The fastest-growing employment sector is projected to be services, as it has 26 Table 4. Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90 [In thousands] Actual Projected Low-trend. High-trend 1 High-trend II Average annual 1980 rate of change, 1979-90 1959 19S9 1979 1990 Average annual rate of change, 1979-90 Agriculture: Dairy and poultry p ro d u c ts .......................................... Meat and livestock p ro d u cts........................................ Cotton ............................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s .................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u cts.......................................... 1,551 979 565 960 1,436 814 756 178 635 1,111 511 528 142 639 995 354 452 121 591 813 - 3 .3 - 1 .4 - 1 .4 -.7 - 1 .8 395 508 136 674 920 - 2 .3 -.4 -.3 .5 -.7 411 524 135 661 903 - 2 .0 -.1 - .5 .3 - .9 Mining: Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ................................... Copper ore m in in g ....................................................... Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper . . . . Coal m in in g ...................................................................... Crude petroleum and natural g a s .............................. Stone and clay mining and quarrying......................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ...................... 33 23 31 201 200 105 19 30 34 25 138 157 99 18 30 33 39 265 211 103 25 34 34 40 411 311 103 31 1.3 .4 .3 4.1 3.6 .1 2.1 38 37 42 472 325 109 33 2.2 1.2 .8 5.4 4.0 .5 2.8 33 36 40 412 307 100 32 1.0 .8 .3 4.1 3.5 - .3 2.1 Construction: Maintenance and repair co n stru ctio n ......................... New construction............................................................ 662 3,163 792 3,594 1,292 4,605 1,423 5,497 .9 1.6 1,532 5,977 1.6 2.4 1,460 5,643 1.1 1.9 Manufacturing: Durable goods: Ordnance ................................................................... Complete guided missiles and space vehicles . . L og g ing ........................................................................ Sawmills and planing mills ..................................... Other millwork, plywood, and wood products . . . Wooden containers .................................................. Household furniture .................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household ............ Glass .......................................................................... Cement and concrete p ro d u c ts .............................. 50 94 143 305 261 43 259 124 153 209 175 107 138 230 310 36 316 153 188 228 75 81 148 237 386 25 331 176 205 254 102 70 113 222 344 20 379 180 239 253 2.8 - 1 .3 - 2 .4 -.6 - 1 .0 - 1 .6 1.2 .2 1.4 -.0 111 72 120 231 370 22 408 214 252 267 3.7 - .9 -1 .8 - .2 - .4 - 1 .0 1.9 1.8 1.9 .5 98 77 108 215 374 22 390 194 242 261 2.5 - .5 - 2 .8 - .9 -.3 - 1 .3 1.5 .9 1.5 .2 Structural clay p ro d u c ts .......................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts................................... Other stone and clay products .............................. Blast furnaces and basic steel p ro d u cts............... Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s .................... Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts .................... Primary aluminum and aluminum p ro d u c ts .......... Primary nonferrous metals and metal products . . Metal containers ....................................................... Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ............ 78 49 125 588 269 137 111 78 75 71 64 45 140 644 312 160 153 93 87 76 52 51 164 569 324 159 169 90 81 76 44 57 171 583 375 163 173 111 91 100 - 1 .5 1.1 .4 .2 1.4 .3 .3 2.0 1.1 2.6 45 60 186 586 387 170 181 114 99 105 - 1 .2 1.5 1.2 .3 1.6 .7 .6 2.2 1.9 3.0 43 55 181 583 377 165 170 108 95 103 - 1 .7 .7 .9 .2 1.4 .3 .0 1.7 1.4 2.8 Fabricated structural metal p ro d u c ts .................... Screw machine products ........................................ Metal stampings ....................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .......... Other fabricated metal products ........................... Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to rs ......................... Farm m achinery......................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery . . . . Material handling e q u ip m e n t................................... Metalworking m a ch ine ry.......................................... 344 88 189 135 231 90 128 162 65 251 440 114 255 165 315 112 141 202 95 347 538 117 243 186 378 145 183 282 113 379 583 140 266 226 443 149 217 369 148 411 .7 1.6 .8 1.8 1.5 .3 1.6 2.4 2.5 .7 640 151 290 240 472 175 239 474 183 547 1.6 2.4 1.6 2.4 2.0 1.7 2.5 4.8 4.5 3.4 601 143 277 227 461 160 224 369 150 424 1.0 1.9 1.2 1.8 1.8 .9 1.9 2.4 2.6 1.0 Special industry m a ch in e ry..................................... General industrial m a ch ine ry................................... Other nonelectrical m achinery................................ Computers and peripheral equipment ................. Typewriters and other office e q u ip m e n t............... Service industry machines ..................................... Electric transmission equipment ........................... Electrical industrial a p p a ra tu s ................................ Household appliances ............................................. Electric lighting and wiring ..................................... 164 221 166 111 28 97 157 176 157 134 206 291 246 224 52 147 207 223 187 205 205 329 309 350 48 188 219 251 180 226 227 393 344 552 77 199 236 307 192 309 1.0 1.6 1.0 4.2 4.5 .6 .7 1.9 .6 2.9 234 430 381 614 89 226 277 355 198 335 1.2 2.5 1.9 5.2 5.8 1.7 2.2 3.2 .9 3.7 231 390 373 555 73 208 247 315 190 324 1.1 1.6 1.7 4.3 3.8 .9 1.1 2.1 .5 3.3 Radio and television receiving sets ...................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus .................... Radio and communication e quipm ent.................... Electronic co m p on e n ts............................................. Other electrical machinery and e q u ip m e n t.......... Motor ve h ic le s ............................................................ A ir c r a ft........................................................................ Ship and boat building and repair ......................... Railroad equipment .................................................. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a r t s ........................... 114 105 252 213 111 696 722 151 41 9 156 146 409 394 125 912 805 193 51 14 115 169 357 525 180 996 632 228 74 20 98 201 424 666 174 921 768 271 65 24 - 1 .4 1.6 1.6 2.2 -.3 -.7 1.8 1.6 - 1 .0 1.8 120 231 433 669 211 1,049 839 305 81 30 .5 2.9 1.8 2.2 1.5 .5 2.6 2.7 .8 4.0 116 229 418 669 176 940 779 279 81 32 .0 2.8 1.5 2.2 - .2 -.5 1.9 1.9 .8 4.4 Other transportation equ ip m en t.............................. 23 89 105 120 1.2 147 3.1 121 1.3 Industry 27 1990 Average annual rate of change, 1979-90 Tab!© 4. Continued— Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 19§©-®0 [In thousands] A ctual P rojected Low -trend Industry H igh-trend 1 A verage annual rate o f change, 1979-80 H igh-trend II A verage annual rate o f change, 1979-90 A verage annual rate o f change, 1079-90 1959 1SS0 1079 1990 Scientific and controlling in stru m en ts.................... Medical and dental instrum ents.............................. Optical and ophthalmic e quipm ent......................... Photographic equipment and supplies ................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices . . . Jewelry and silve rw are ............................................. Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s ............... Other manufactured p ro d u c ts ................................ 166 45 85 69 30 67 116 229 195 82 75 111 35 78 149 233 218 141 82 134 28 93 145 244 252 189 92 144 25 91 164 263 1.4 2.7 1.1 .7 - .7 -.2 1.2 .7 298 224 102 165 28 92 175 269 2.8 4.3 2.0 1.9 .3 -.1 1.8 .9 246 183 97 152 25 91 175 262 1.1 2.4 1.5 1.2 - .9 -.2 1.7 .6 Nondurable goods: Meat p ro d u c ts ............................................................ Dairy p ro d u c ts ............................................................ Canned and frozen fo o d s ........................................ Grain mill products _____ _ .. Bakery products ....................................................... Sugar .......................................................................... Confectionery products .......................................... Alcoholic bevera g es.................................................. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s ........................................ Other food p ro d u cts.................................................. 324 326 249 139 313 38 79 107 111 144 344 260 291 137 286 36 87 97 142 151 364 189 308 146 240 30 79 88 151 163 379 158 269 154204 33 70 62 156 147 .4 - 1 .6 - .5 5 - 1 .5 1.1 - 1 .0 -3.1 .3 -.9 403 168 307 165 217 34 75 64 166 157 .9 - 1 .0 .0 1.2 - .9 1.4 -.5 -2 .7 .9 -.3 372 147 323 151 209 33 73 65 152 156 .2 - 2 .2 .5 .3 - 1 .2 1.0 -.7 - 2 .7 .1 -.4 Tobacco m anufactures............................................. Fabric, yam, and thread mills ................................ Floor covering mills .................................................. Other textile mill p ro d u cts........................................ Hosiery and knit g o o d s ............................................ A p p a re l........................................................................ Other fabricated textile p ro d u c ts ........................... Paper products ......................................................... Paperboard containers and b o x e s ......................... Newspaper printing and publishing ...................... 95 619 39 74 221 1,100 143 415 175 328 83 616 58 82 251 1,244 182 483 231 376 70 532 60 70 229 1,132 200 493 215 435 64 534 62 74 238 1,190 233 546 221 508 - .7 .0 .3 .6 .4 .5 1.4 .9 .3 1.4 67 545 68 82 261 1,319 251 548 233 549 -.3 .2 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.0 .8 2.1 67 529 64 73 232 1,205 236 545 230 526 -.4 -.1 .6 .4 .1 .6 1.5 .9 .6 1.7 Periodical and book printing and publishing . . . . Other printing and publishing................................... Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals .......... Agricultural chemicals ............................................. Other chemical products ........................................ Plastic materials and synthetic r u b b e r .................. Synthetic fibers ......................................................... Drugs .......................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations ........................... Paints and allied p ro d u cts........................................ 156 446 260 54 82 81 79 106 89 62 210 550 296 65 124 108 132 143 123 72 230 641 323 70 100 101 118 194 140 69 303 664 417 73 113 97 93 228 145 71 2.5 .3 2.4 .5 1.2 -.3 -2 .1 1.5 .4 .3 329 717 426 75 118 107 101 247 162 74 3.3 1.0 2.6 .7 1.5 .6 - 1 .4 2.2 1.3 .7 305 693 425 71 122 108 102 232 152 69 2.6 .7 2.5 .1 1.8 .5 - 1 .3 1.6 .8 .1 Petroleum refining and related p ro d u cts............... Tires and inner tu b e s ............................................... Miscellaneous rubber and plastics products . . . . Other plastics products .......................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather ................. Leather products including footwear .................... 217 105 178 94 36 341 182 119 162 320 29 316 210 122 167 493 20 234 184 126 179 658 14 212 - 1 .2 .3 .7 2.7 - 2 .7 - .9 201 129 181 669 15 226 - .4 .5 .8 2.8 - 2 .2 -.3 184 126 183 645 15 214 - 1 .2 .3 .8 2.5 - 2 .6 - .8 Transportation: Railroad transportation.................................................. Local transit and intercity buses ................................ Truck transportation....................................................... W ater transportation .................................................... Air transportation............................................................ Pipeline transportation .................................................. Transportation services ............................................... 930 311 1,001 239 184 24 70 651 315 1,214 234 357 18 111 561 303 1,558 223 442 20 192 4*2 3x 1,922 -198 493 22 240 - 1 .7 1.4 1.9 -1.1 1.0 1.1 2.1 493 364 2,052 204 525 22 262 - 1 .2 1.7 2.5 - .8 1.6 1.2 2.9 468 339 1,908 183 497 22 246 - 1 .6 1.0 1.8 - 1 .8 1.1 .7 2.3 Communications: Radio and television b roadcasting.............................. Communications except radio and television .......... 80 749 131 919 193 1,121 266 1,280 3.0 1.2 277 1,454 3.4 2.4 267 1,300 3.0 1.4 Public utilities: • Electric utilities, public and p riv a te .............................. Gas utilities, excluding public ..................................... W ater and sanitary services, excluding public . . . . 430 215 61 460 220 88 606 223 93 650 242 108 .6 .8 1.4 758 274 128 2.1 1.9 2.9 654 235 114 .7 .5 1.8 Trade: Wholesale trade ............................................................ Eating and drinking p la c e s .......................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places . . . 3,349 1,960 7,936 4,163 2,812 9,729 5,501 4,924 11,952 6,366 6,836 13,830 1.3 3.0 1.3 6,984 7,179 15,088 2.2 3.5 2.1 6,412 6,843 14,190 1.4 3.0 1.6 Finance, insurance, and real estate: Banking ........................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers ...................... Insurance ........................................................................ Real e s ta te ...................................................................... 644 389 1,137 753 987 652 1,370 855 1,492 898 1,753 1,371 1,981 1,174 2,120 1,732 2.6 2.5 1.7 2.1 2,013 1,329 2,193 1,926 2.8 3.6 2.1 3.1 1,957 1,303 2,133 1,716 2.5 3.4 1.8 2.1 28 1990 16S0 Table 4. Continued— Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90 [In thousands] Projected Actual Industry Low-trend Average annual 1990 rate of change, 1979-90 High-trend 1 Average annual 1990 rate of change, 1979-90 High-trend II Average annual 1990 rate of change, 1979-90 1959 1989 1979 Services: Hotels and lodging places .......................................... Personal and repair services ..................................... B a ite r and beauty s h o p s ............................................. Miscellaneous business se rvice s................................ Advertising ...................................................................... Miscellaneous professional services ......................... Automobile repair ......................................................... Motion pictures .............................................................. Amusement and recreation services ......................... Doctors’ and dentists' s e rv ic e s ................................... 868 1,157 538 814 121 746 422 228 372 605 1,065 1,232 634 1,691 134 1,046 569 248 497 806 1,543 1,278 613 3,144 166 1,720 837 308 761 1,317 1,887 1,281 649 4,314 192 2,179 1,168 315 1,029 1,896 1.8 .0 .5 2.9 1.3 2.2 3.1 .2 2.8 3.4 2,126 1,555 770 4,757 213 2,413 1,208 329 1,042 1,982 3.0 1.8 2.1 3.8 2.3 3.1 3.4 .6 2.9 3.8 2,035 1,424 733 4,509 198 2,292 1,148 306 1,019 1,875 2.5 1.0 1.6 3.3 1.6 2.6 2.9 -.1 2.7 3.3 Hospitals ........................................................................ Other medical services ............................................... Educational services (p riva te )..................................... Nonprofit organizations ............................................... Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts ..................................... Agricultural, forestry, and fishery s e rv ic e s ............... Private households ....................................................... 974 283 839 1,331 47 261 2,574 1,776 652 1,229 1,764 41 296 2,322 2,621 1,403 1,683 2,244 76 447 1,723 3,967 2,312 2,098 2,638 78 542 1,576 3.8 4.6 2.0 1.5 .3 1.8 - .8 4,206 2,553 2,149 2,839 82 593 1,593 4.4 5.6 2.2 2.2 .8 2.6 - .7 3,954 2,403 2,075 2,722 76 543 1,587 3.8 5.0 1.9 1.8 .1 1.8 - .7 Government enterprises: Post O ffic e ...................................................................... Other Federal enterprises .......................................... Local government passenger tr a n s it......................... Other state and local government enterprises . . . . 574 104 71 225 732 152 87 351 661 153 130 492 675 202 185 695 .2 2.6 3.3 3.2 700 236 200 774 .5 4.0 4.0 4.2 680 207 190 701 .3 2.8 3.5 3.3 growth at about the same pace as the total private economy. The greatest increase in employment opportunities over the next 11 years is expected to be in the trade sec tor, primarily because of its initial large size. Between 4.7 and 6.9 million new jobs are projected to appear in wholesale and retail trade establishments between 1979 and 1990. been in the past. In 1959, service industries accounted for 13.6 percent of total employment; by 1979, that share had risen to 19.4 percent. It is expected that in 1990, service industries will account for about 22 per cent of all jobs in the economy. Leading the advance among service industries will be health care. Employment in doctors’ and dentists’ of fices and in hospitals is expected to grow faster than the all-industries average, but the most rapid gains are pro jected for other related medical care services, such as nursing homes, medical laboratories, therapists’ offices, and nurses’ services. Between 1958 and 1979, employ ment in these establishments expanded by 8.8 percent a year, the fastest growth rate for any industry in the economy. During the 1980’s, other medical services em ployment will again post the fastest rate of growth un der all scenarios: 4.6 percent a year in the low-trend model, 5.6 percent in high-trend I, and 5.0 percent in high-trend II. Manufacturing growth to pick up. Manufacturing jobs will grow by 0.8 percent a year during 1979-90 in the low-trend version, 1.6 percent in high-trend I, and 1.0 percent in high-trend II, slower than the rates projected for total jobs but faster than manufacturing sector growth in recent years. Between 1969 and 1979, manu facturing employment rose by only 0.5 percent a year, and its share of total jobs dropped from 23.7 percent to 20.6 percent. Manufacturing will account for between 19.2 and 19.5 percent of all jobs in 1990. The projected turnaround in the rate of manufactur ing job growth is more pronounced for durable goods manufacturing than for nondurables, reflecting assump tions of strong demand for consumer durables and for producers’ durable equipment, especially in the hightrend versions. Employment in durable manufacturing industries will expand by 1.0 percent a year during 1979 -90 in the low-trend model, 1.9 percent in high-trend I, and 1.2 percent in high-trend II. Annual growth aver aged only 0.7 percent in the 1969-79 period. Within the durable goods sector, rapid job gains are projected for industries manufacturing typewriters and Trade will offer most new jobs. The trade sector is expected to continue to increase its share of all jobs, but within the sector the pattern of job growth varies. Wholesale trade is projected to show only modest gains, while eating and drinking establishments in the retail portion enjoy more rapid growth. Although the antici pated rate of job increase for eating and drinking places is higher than for many other industries in the econo my, it is still below the historical rate, due to an as sumption of more rapid productivity gains. Other retail trade establishments are projected to average job 29 other office equipment; computers; electric lighting and wiring equipment; and medical and dental instruments. Employment in guided missiles and space vehicles is projected to decline between 1979 and 1990, despite output growth related to defense demand, because of productivity advances. In the motor vehicles industry, the high-trend as sumption is for employment to rebound from the layoffs of 1980, but under low-trend assumptions, the recovery will not be as complete. In 1977, 1978, and 1979, em Table S. ployment in the industry hovered around the 1 million mark. In 1980, however, it plunged to 776,000. In the high-trend I case, these lost jobs are expected to be recouped and employment is projected to be 1.049 mil lion in 1990. In the low-trend case, 1990 motor vehicle employment will be about 921,000. The number of jobs in basic steel declined steadily during the 1970’s, but is projected to stabilize over the next 10 years. Employment is expected to rise slightly from the 1979 level of 569,000 to between 583,000 and Employm ent fey m ajor se c to r, actual and p ro jected , se le c te d y ears, 1SSD-S0 Thousands o f jo bs Actual P rojected Industry se cto r 1985 1SSS Total e m p lo ym e n t.................................................. General government1 ....................................................... F e d e ra l............................................................................. M ilita ry ..................................................................... C ivilian .......................................................................... State and local .............................................................. E ducation..................................................................... N oneducation.............................................................. Total private ........................................................................ A gricu ltu re ........................................................................ N ona g riculture ................................................................. Mining .......................................................................... C onstruction................................................................. Manufacturing ............................................................ Durable goods ....................................................... Nondurable g o o d s .................................................. Transportation, communications, and public utilities ...................................................................... Transportation ....................................................... C om m unications.................................................... Public utilities ......................................................... Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................ Finance, insurance, and real estate ...................... Other services ............................................... ... Government enterprises .......................................... Private h ou se h o ld s.................................................... 1889 1980 1979 Low -trend H igh-trend I H igh-trend II Low -trend H igh-trend I H igh-trend II 70,512 9.973 4,289 2,552 1,737 5,684 2,687 2,997 60,539 5,491 55,048 612 3,825 16,985 9,560 7,425 86,278 14,818 5,614 3,506 2,108 9,204 5,036 4,168 71,460 3,494 67,986 501 4,386 20,469 12,081 8,388 104,120 16,523 4,223 2,103 2,120 12,300 6,642 5,658 87,597 2,815 84,782 708 5,897 21,433 13,009 8,424 113,775 17,587 4,355 2,129 2,226 13,232 6,679 6,553 96,188 2,621 93,566 898 6,747 22,609 13,833 8,775 118,981 17,587 4,355 2,129 2,226 13,232 6,679 6,553 101,394 '2,921 98,472 946 7,080 23,855 14,644 9,210 114,935 17,441 4,209 2,129 2,080 13,232 6,679 6,553 97,494 2,922 94,572 896 6,810 22,895 14,036 8,859 121,971 18,108 4,429 2,129 2,300 13,677 6,513 7,164 103,865 2,333 101,531 967 6,920 23,476 14,560 8,916 130,665 18,106 4,429 2,129 2,300 13,677 6,513 7,164 112,559 2,633 109,925 1,059 7,509 25,520 16,045 9,475 123,958 17,886 4,209 2,129 2,080 13,677 6,513 7,164 106,072 2,634 103,438 959 7,104 23,905 14,872 9,033 4,304 2,759 839 708 13,245 2,923 9,606 974 2,574 4,718 2,900 1,050 768 16,704 3,864 13,680 1,322 2,322 5,535 3,299 1,314 922 22,377 5,514 20,161 1,436 1,723 5,903 3,488 1,447 968 24,868 6,096 23,249 1,606 1,586 6,213 3,627 1,535 1,051 26,150 6,427 24,497 1,681 1,618 5,898 3,468 1,459 971 24,961 6,252 23,642 1,625 1,592 6,239 3,693 1,546 1,000 27,032 7,008 26,553 1,758 1,576 6,815 3,924 1,731 1,160 29,231 7,464 28,824 1,911 1,593 6,241 3,671 1,567 1,003 27,445 7,108 27,313 1,778 1,587 P ercent d istrib utio n A ctual P rojected 1985 1959 Total e m p lo ym e n t.................................................. General government' ....................................................... Federal ............................................................................. M ilita ry .......................................................................... C ivilian ........................................................................... State and local .............................................................. E ducation...................................................................... N oneducation.............................................................. Total private ........................................................................ A gricu ltu re ........................................................................ N ona g riculture ................................................................ Mining .......................................................................... C onstruction................................................................ Manufacturing ............................................................ Durable goods ....................................................... Nondurable g o o d s .................................................. Transportation, communications, and public utilities ..................................................................... Transportation ....................................................... C om m unications.................................................... Public utilities ......................................................... Wholesale and retail tr a d e ........................................ Finance, insurance, and real estate ...................... Other services ............................................................ Government enterprises .......................................... Private h o u se h o ld s.................................................... 1880 Low -trend H igh-trend I H igh-trend II Low -trend H igh-trend I H igh-trend II 100.0 14.1 6.1 3.6 2.5 8.1 3.8 4.3 85.9 7.8 78.1 .9 5.4 24.1 13.6 10.5 100.0 17.2 6.5 4.1 2.4 10.7 5.8 4.8 82.8 4.0 78.8 .6 5.1 23.7 14.0 9.7 100.0 15.9 4.1 2.0 2.0 11.8 6.4 5.4 84.1 2.7 81.4 .7 5.8 20.6 12.5 8.1 100.0 15.5 3.8 1.9 2.0 11.6 5.9 5.8 84.5 2.3 82.2 .8 5.9 19.9 12.2 7.7 100.0 14.8 3.7 1.8 1.9 11.1 5.6 5.5 85.2 2.5 82.8 .8 6.0 20.0 12.3 7.7 100.0 15.2 3.7 1.9 1.8 11.5 5.8 5.7 84.8 2.5 82.3 .8 5.9 19.9 12.2 7.7 100.0 14.8 3.6 1.7 1.9 11.2 5.3 5.9 85.2 1.9 83.2 .8 5.7 19.2 11.9 7.3 100.0 13.9 3.4 1.6 1.8 10.5 5.0 5.5 86.1 2.0 84.1 .8 5.7 19.5 12.3 7.3 100.0 14.4 3.4 1.7 1.7 11.0 5.3 5.8 85.6 2.1 83.4 .8 5.7 19.3 12.0 7.3 6.1 3.9 1.2 1.0 18,8 4.1 13.6 1.4 3.7 5.5 3.4 1.2 .9 19.4 4.5 15.9 1.5 2.7 5.3 3.2 1.3 .9 21.5 5.3 19.4 1.4 1.7 5.2 3.1 1.3 .9 21.9 5.4 20.4 1.4 1.4 5.2 3.0 1.3 .9 22.0 5.4 20.6 1.4 1.4 5.1 3.0 1.3 .8 21.7 5.4 20.6 1.4 1.4 5.1 3.0 1.3 .8 22.2 5.7 21.8 1.4 1.3 5.2 3.0 1.3 .9 22.4 5.7 22.1 1.5 1.2 5.0 3.0 1.3 .9 22.1 5.7 22.0 1.4 1.3 1 National Income Accounts basis. 1990 1979 30 Table 6. Average annual percent change in employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years, 1©5@-S0 A ctual 1979-85 1959-69 Total e m plo ym e n t.................................................. General government1 ....................................................... F e d e ra l............................................................................. M ilita ry.......................................................................... C ivilian .......................................................................... State and local .............................................................. Education ..................................................................... N oneducation.............................................................. Total private ........................................................................ A gricu ltu re ........................................................................ N onagriculture................................................................. Mining .......................................................................... C onstruction................................................................ Manufacturing ........................................................... Durable goods ....................................................... Nondurable g o o d s .................................................. Transportation, communications, and public utilities........................................................................ Transportation ....................................................... Communications . . . .......................................... Public utilities ......................................................... Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................ Finance, insurance, and real estate ...................... Other services ............................................................ Government enterprises .......................................... Private h o u se h o ld s.................................................... P rojected 0 Industry sector 1630-79 1885-00 Low -trend High-trend 1 H igh-trend II Low -trend High-trend 1 High-trend II 1.9 .6 .3 .0 .7 .7 - .5 1.8 2.1 -2.1 2.2 2.3 1.2 1.4 1.8 .6 1.5 .5 .0 .0 .0 .7 - .5 1.8 1.7 -2 .1 1.8 1.4 .8 .9 1.2 .4 1.9 1.6 2.4 2.0 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 .6 1.9 2.6 2.9 1.8 -.1 2.0 4.0 2.7 3.2 2.0 4.9 6.5 3.4 1.7 - 4 .4 2.1 - 2 .0 1.4 1.9 2.4 1.2 1.9 1.1 - 2 .8 - 5 .0 .1 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.1 -2 .1 2.3 3.5 3.0 .5 .7 .0 1.5 1.0 .5 .2 .8 1.2 .1 2.5 1.6 - 1 .2 1.7 4.1 2.3 .9 1.0 .7 2.3 1.0 .5 .2 .8 1.2 .1 2.5 2.5 .6 2.5 5.0 3.1 1.8 2.0 1.5 T.7 .9 .0 .2 -.3 1.2 .1 2.5 1.8 .6 1.8 4.0 2.4 1.1 1.3 .8 1.4 .6 .3 .0 .7 .7 -.5 1.8 1.5 - 2 .3 1.6 1.5 .5 .8 1.0 .9 .5 2.3 .8 2.3 2.8 3.6 3.1 - 1 .0 1.6 1.3 2.3 1.8 3.0 3.6 4.0 .8 - 2 .9 1.1 .9 1.6 .8 1.8 1.7 2.4 1.9 - 1 .4 1.9 1.6 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.6 1.1 .8 1.8 .9 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.1 - 1 .3 1.1 1.1 1.3 .7 1.7 2.8 2.7 1.8 -.1 3.3 2.7 - 1 .0 .3 3.0 3.3 2.6 - .3 1 National Income Accounts basis. 586.00 by 1990. An increase in steel jobs is projected despite an assumption that imports will account for a larger share of total steel output, because demand for basic steel products is expected to be strong in the next decade as the result of rapid investment growth. The projected increase in nondurable goods employ ment, although positive compared to the zero growth posted during 1969-79, is much slower than the all industries average. Nondurable goods industries ac counted for 8.1 percent of all jobs in 1979, but are expected to represent only 7.3 percent in 1990. In fact, 5 of the 10 industries with the greatest rate of projected job loss are in the nondurable goods sector. (See table 7.) The five industries have already experi enced job declines either because of falling demand or rapid productivity growth, and these trends are ex pected to continue. Sluggish demand for leather tanning services and processed foods (especially dairy and bak ery products) is expected to cause employment to fall; for alcoholic beverages and synthetic fibers, productivity gains are assumed to more than offset rapidly rising de mand. Employment in textiles will remain essentially unchanged from the 1979 level of 892,(XX) in the lowtrend and high-trend II versions, and rise by about 65.000 jobs in high-trend I. Demand for textile prod ucts is projected to expand in all models, but imports are expected to hold a 6.7- to 7.5-percent market share 1990, somewhat larger than at present. Jobs in apparel are projected to rise from 1.1 million to between 1.2 and 1.3 million between 1979 and 1990. Demand will increase with disposable incomes, out weighing the assumption that the import share of total apparel output will rise to between 14 and 16 percent. Public sector growth will halt. Although most major eco nomic sectors are expected to follow past trends in terms of shares of total jobs, State and local govern ments are an exception. Their employment share rose from 8.1 percent of the total in 1959 to 11.8 percent in 1979, but by 1990, it will account for 11.2 percent of all jobs in the low-trend version and 10.5 percent in hightrend I. The slow growth is expected to result primarily from reductions in school enrollment, which will more than offset gains expected in the public health and hos pitals field. Federal employment is assumed to change only slightly from the 1979 level, and in one case (high-trend II) is projected to decline. Government employment in high-trend I, the model with the largest labor force, is the same as in the low-trend model because of assump tions that investment and tax policies will allow the pri vate sector to completely absorb the larger labor force. Other sectors show mixed patterns. Finance, insurance, and real estate employment is projected to continue to rise as a share of total jobs during the 1980’s, despite slower than average output growth. Demand for credit and banking services, in particular, is expected to stimu late employment growth in this area despite sluggish demand for real estate services. The rate of employment increase in construction is projected to parallel the output trends discussed earlier, accelerating in the first half of the decade in response to 31 the shifting energy picture. Coal mining is projected to be one of the fastest growing of all industries during the next decade. Over the past 30 years, employment in the coal industry has experienced major cycles. Following severe job cutbacks between 1950 and 1965, employ ment stabilized during 1965-69, then expanded steadily over the next 10 years. Although a shift from under ground mines to more capital-intensive surface mines will cause output per worker-hour to grow faster in the coal industry than in the private nonfarm economy as a whole, employment is expected to continue to rise rap idly in response to increased demand for coal. Annual growth of 4.1 to 5.4 percent is projected for 1979-90. In the crude petroleum and natural gas drilling indus try, employment is expected to rise faster than domestic output, as exploration for new oil creates demand for more workers but yields a decreasing rate of return. T a b le 7 . L © w - flr @ n d ] p r o j e c t e d e m p l o y m e n t c h a n g e s f o r s e le c te d in d u s t r ie s , 1 9 7 9 - 9 0 Fastest gro w in g Other medical s e rv ic e s ............................................................................. Typewriters and other office equipment ............................................... Computers and peripheral equ ip m en t.................................................... Coal mining ................................................................................................. H o s p ita ls ...................................................................................................... Crude petroleum and natural g a s ............................................................ Doctors’ and dentists' services .............................................................. Local government passenger tra n s it....................................................... Other state and local government ente rp rise s................................ Automobile re p a ir....................................................................................... M ost rapidly declining Dairy and poultry products ..................................................................... Alcoholic b e v e ra g e s .................................................................................. Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r.................................................... L o g g in g ........................................................................................................ Synthetic fibers ......................................................................................... Other agricultural products ..................................................................... Railroad transportation ............................................................................. Wooden co n ta ine rs.................................................................................... Dairy products (pro ce sse d )..................................................................... Bakery p ro d u c ts ..................................................................... ................... Largest jo b gains Eating and drinking p la c e s .............................................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................................... H o s p ita ls ...................................................................................................... Miscellaneous business services ........................................................... Other medical services ................................................................... New construction ....................................................................................... Wholesale tr a d e ......................................................................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services .......................................... .......... P a n k in g ........................................................................................................ Educational services (private) ............................................. A verage annual rate o f jo b g ro w th 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 A verage annual rate o f jo b d ecline - 3 .3 -3.1 - 2 .7 - 2 .4 -2 .1 - 1 .8 - 1 .7 - 1 .6 - 1 .6 - 1 .5 Previous projections for 1990 In April 1979, BLS published its first look at industry output and employment for the year 1990, in the form of a base case and a high-employment alternative. The first case, intended as a base-line projection, incorporat ed a moderately expanding labor force, a relatively slow decline in inflation and unemployment, and mod erate government expenditures. The high-employment alternative assumed a much larger labor force, and a heavy emphasis on job creation which would lower the unemployment rate. What are the differences between E m ploym ent gain (in thousands) 1,912 1,878 1,347 1,171 909 892 866 580 490 416 strong housing demand, then slowing somewhat during the second half as demand for residential construction tapers. Between 1.0 million (low-trend) and 1.6 million (high-trend I) new jobs will be added in the construc tion industry between 1979 and 1990. Farm employment is expected to continue to decline through the next decade, but the drop is not expected to be as rapid as in the last few decades; in the hightrend versions there is even a small gain between 1979 and 1985. Past productivity advances in agriculture have been very great: Between 1959 and 1979, output per hour of all persons in the farm sector rose by al most 5 percent annually, compared with about 2 or 3 percent for the private nonfarm economy before 1973 and less than 1 percent a year thereafter. These ad vances have already begun to slow, however, and the continued tapering of increases in farm productivity during the 1980’s is expected to moderate the rate of decline in farm jobs. Table 8. Comparison of previous and current employment projections for 1990 [In thousands] P revious Ind u stry se cto r Total employment .................. General governm ent' ......................... F e d era l............................................... Military ........................... .. Civilian .......................................... State and local ......................... Education ..................................... Noneducation .............................. Total p riv a te .......................................... Agriculture ........................................ N onagriculture............ ...................... M in in g ............................................ Construction ................................ Manufacturing .............................. Durable g o o d s ......................... Nondurable goods ................. Transportation, communications, and public utilities .................... Transportation ......................... Com m unications...................... Public u tilitie s ........................... Wholesale and retail trade . . . . Finance, insurance, and real estate ........................................ Other s e rvice s.......... ............... Government e n te rp rise s............ Private households...................... Mining job growth above average. The largest industries within the mining sector in terms of jobs— coal mining and crude petroleum and natural gas extraction— are expected to experience employment changes in line with 1 National Income Accounts basis. 32 C urrent Base case Low -trend H igh-trend 1 High-trend II 121,204 18,066 4,389 2,089 2,300 13,677 6,513 7,164 103,138 2,634 100,504 787 6,033 23,882 14,692 9,189 121,971 18,106 4,429 2,129 2,300 13,677 6,513 7,164 103,865 2,333 101,531 967 6,920 23,476 14,560 8,916 130,665 18,106 4,429 2,129 2,300 13,677 6,513 7,164 112,559 2,633 109,925 1,059 7,509 25,520 16.045 9,475 123,958 17,886 4,209 2,129 .2,080 13,677 6,513 7,164 106,072 2,634 103,438 959 7,104 23,905 14,872 9,033 5,658 3,332 1,473 1,104 27,370 6,239 3,693 1,546 1,000 27,032 6,815 3,924 1,731 1,160 29,231 6,241 3,671 1,567 1,003 27,445 6,695 26,742 1,779 1,307 7,008 26,553 1,758 1,576 7,464 28,824 1,911 1,593 7,108 27,313 1,778 1,587 higher than the old base case in all new scenarios: those initial 1990 forecasts and the present ones? One important change has been the development of a range of possible values for 1990 rather than a single base-line case plus an alternate. The new low-trend and high-trend I versions are intended to present a band within which a “base case” might fall. In addition, estimates of the 1990 civilian labor force have been revised upward in all of the new scenarios. (For both 1990 employment projections, BLS prepared three alternative labor force projections—a low growth path, a middle growth path, and a high growth path. The old base case and the new low-trend and hightrend II models were based on the BLS middle labor force growth path. The old high-employment alternative and the new high-trend I model were based on the high labor force growth path.) Between 1977, the last year for which data were available for the first projections, and 1979, the last year for which data were available for the new ones, labor force participation rates of women have risen faster than expected. Consequently, the new 1990 labor force projections are higher than the old ones for all three labor force scenarios: Low growth path . . . Middle growth path . High growth path . . Old projection (000's) New projection (000's) 113,521 119,366 125,603 117,394 122,375 128,123 Old projections: Base c a s e ................... High-employment alternative ........... New projections: Low-trend . . . . . . H ig h -tren d i........... High-trend I I ____ 1985 4.7 4.0 7.0 5.5 6.0 (000's) 1990 114,440 121,204 119,627 113,775 118,981 114,935 128,400 121,971 130,665 123,958 At the industry level, the new assumptions raise the employment projections for most sectors, although the 1978-79 experience has altered the original outlook for many individual industries. For example, the synthetic fibers industry was projected to be one of the top 10 job gainers (in terms of rate of growth) in the first set of projections, but this time ranks among the top 10 losers. Rising prices which curbed demand, and gains in productivity contributed to this reversal. The distribution of final demand also changed be tween the old and new scenarios, affecting both indus try output and employment projections. Defense pro curement was originally assumed to experience a slowdown during the 1980’s but is now projected to in crease its share of GNP; personal consumption expendi tures are not expected to grow as rapidly as initially forecast; and levels of exports and imports are both higher in the new versions. These revisions contribute to a change in the 1990 distribution of output and jobs at the industry level. (See table 8.) The earlier forecasts assumed a shift in energy re sources from oil and gas to coal, as do the new fore casts, but oil price shocks have been even more severe than originally anticipated, leading to a more pro nounced shift in the new projections. And finally, the previous forecasts used Department of Commerce input-output tables for 1963 and 1967 and a BLS-estimated table for 1973. Subsequently, a 1972 input-output table was published by the Depart ment of Commerce. Use of this table in the new projec tions resulted in widespread data revisions in many historical series and provided more current information on technological trends. □ Somewhat offsetting a larger labor force are new as sumptions about the unemployment rate in light of the recent recession; except in the case of the 1990 hightrend I version, the new rates are higher than in the old projections: Old projections: Base c a s e .................................... High-employment alternative. New projections: Low-trend ................................ High-trend I ............................ High-trend II ......................... 1985 (000's) 1990 4.5 4.0 6.0 4.0 4.5 Military force levels are virtually unchanged in the new scenarios from those previously assumed. The re sult is a projection of total employment for 1990 that is FOOTNOTES government expenditures include not only purchases but also grants, transfers, and net interest payments. 4 Projections o f the Population o f the United States: 1977 to 2050. 1Annual Report to Congress, 1979, Volume 3, (Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, 1980). 2 Projections o f the Population o f the United States: 1977 to 2050, Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 704 (Census Bureau 1977). 3Government purchases are outlays for goods and services, while 5 The Detailed Input-Output Structure o f the U.S. Economy: 1972, (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1979). 33 Occupational employment growth through 1990 Three alternative sets o f occupational employment projections for the 1978-90 period all show high growth for white-collar and service categories, hut slow growth for blue-collar workers and decreases among farmworkers M ax L. Carey The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed three sets of occupational employment projections for 1978 to 1990 based on varying outlooks of the future economy.1 Although the assumptions that differentiate these sce narios result in various rates of growth for most jobs, changes in the occupational composition of total em ployment during these years are similar for all versions and generally correspond to past trends. Employment continues to expand more rapidly in service occupations than it does in other categories, and the number of farmworkers still declines. White-collar jobs increase faster than total employment in each scenario, and the number of blue-collar jobs grows slower than the total. However, growth rates are expected to vary greatly within these broad categories, because demographic changes, technological developments, and shifts in the demand for products and services affect major occupa tional categories differently. For example, anticipated decreases in the teenage population and increases in the number of elderly persons in the 1980’s will reduce the need for secondary schoolteachers while increasing it for nurses. Although the occupational structure of total employ ment in 1990 is similar in each version of the economy, some occupations are more sensitive than others to the differences in underlying assumptions. Generally, jobs which are concentrated in manufacturing industries that produce durable goods are most affected, as projected increases in the demand for these goods vary greatly among the scenarios. In contrast, occupations which are concentrated in government are relatively unaffected, because projections of its total employment change very little from one version to another. None of the scenarios attempts to forecast cyclical employment fluctuations. This article summarizes projections from the first na tional industry-occupation matrix to be developed on the basis of staffing patterns from the Occupational Em ployment Statistics Surveys. Previous matrices were based on the decennial census.2 The matrix is a major input to the Bureau’s occupa tional outlook program which conducts research on fu ture occupational requirements and resources for use in planning education and training programs and for career guidance and counseling. The results of the research are published in the Occupational Outlook Handbook and the Occupational Outlook Quarterly, which also contain information on the nature of work in different occupa tions, educational and training needs, earnings and working conditions, and other subjects of interest to people who are planning careers. The projections de scribed in this article will be used in the 1982-83 edition of the Handbook, scheduled for release in spring 1982. Max L. Carey is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 34 Alternative scenarios 1990, while the latter declines from 32.6 percent in 1978 to between 31.8 and 31.5 percent in 1990. Service workers continue to be the fastest growing major occupational category. The number of service jobs rises from 14.4 million in 1978 to 18.9 million in 1990 in the low-trend version, while the high-trend pro jections range from 19.2 to 20.1 million. The share of total jobs accounted for by service occupations in creases from 14.8 percent in 1978 to between 15.7 and 15.8 percent in 1990. On the other hand, the number of farmworkers, is expected to continue declining. Their share of total jobs is projected to decrease from 2.8 per cent in 1978 to between 1.9 and 1.8 percent in 1990. Although service occupations, with projected employ ment increases ranging between 31.4 and 39.3 percent, are expected to be the fastest growing occupational group during 1978-90, the largest number of new jobs will occur in the white- and blue-collar categories. (See chart 1.) The projected increase in white-collar jobs for this period ranges from about 12.1 to 16.1 million, and the corresponding range for blue-collar jobs is approxi mately 5.9 to 8.9 million. The number of new service jobs is expected to run between 4.5 and 5.7 million. Job growth in blue-collar occupations is affected rela tively more by differences among the three scenarios than in other major occupational categories. The num ber of new jobs projected for all occupations during 1978-90 is almost 22 million in the low-trend version, compared with 30.3 million in high-trend alternative I, a difference of 37.8 percent. However, the difference is 50.1 percent for blue-collar occupations alone. These occupations are sensitive to high-trend I because they are concentrated in manufacturing industries, and the demand for manufactured goods is relatively greater in this version of the economy. Demand for manufactured goods also is greater in the high-trend II scenario, but the need for additional blue-collar workers is moderated by the higher productivity gains assumed in this ver sion. For all occupations, about 8.5 percent more new jobs are projected in high-trend II than in the low-trend scenario. The difference for blue-collar jobs is 10.3 per cent. Job growth in the white-collar and service catego ries generally is less affected by differences in the scenarios than blue-collar job growth. However, among the major occupational groups and detailed occupations within these large categories, the sensitivity to these dif ferences varies. Three projections of economic growth for the 1980’s have been developed by BLS. Referred to as the lowtrend, high-trend I, and high-trend II scenarios, they are based on different assumptions concerning growth of the labor force, output, productivity, and other fac tors. The low-trend alternative assumes a decline in the rate of labor force expansion, continued high inflation, and modest increases in production and productivity. The two high-trend alternatives are more optimistic; both being based on large increases in the gross nation al product. Whereas scenario I assumes higher labor force growth, scenario II assumes greater productivity. In all three alternatives, reductions in both personal income taxes and the effective corporate tax rate are expected to stimulate investment, and it is anticipated that expenditures for new equipment by the private sec tor will grow somewhat faster than other types of in vestment. Sharp increases in defense spending for materials and supplies are expected in the 1980’s, but the nondefense portion of Federal purchases is foreseen to show no growth. Drastic cutbacks in imports of crude oil are assumed in each scenario. However, oil imports, as well as domestic output of crude oil and other fuels, are greater in the high-trend alternatives, re flecting the high overall levels of industrial production anticipated in these versions of the economy. More de tails about the assumptions and economic projections are given in other articles in this issue of the Review. Total employment in the low-trend scenario increases by 22.5 percent between 1978 and 1990, from 97.6 to 119.6 million.3 In high-trend I, employment is expected to rise by 31 percent during the same period, to 127.9 million in 1990; in high-trend II, it is projected at 121.4 million, or 24.4 percent above the 1978 level. The rate of employment growth in high-trend I is somewhat faster than during the previous two decades, while the rates for the other two scenarios are slower. Employment in white-collar occupations is expected to expand faster than total employment in each version of the economy. In the low-trend scenario, white-collar jobs rise from 48.6 million in 1978 to 60.7 million in 1990. The 1990 high-trend projections range from 61.6 to 64.7 million. Employment in blue-collar occupations is projected to grow slower than total employment in each version. Blue-collar jobs increase from 31.8 million in 1978 to 37.7 million in 1990 in the low-trend projec tion, while high-trend projections for 1990 range from 38.3 to 40.7 million. Despite the difference in these estimates among the alternatives, the proportions of total employment ac counted for by white-collar and blue-collar jobs do not change substantially. The former increases from 49.8 percent in 1978 to between 50.6 and 50.9 percent in Growth among white-collar groups Professional and technical workers. Employment in pro fessional and technical jobs was 15.6 million in 1978— about 15.9 percent of the national total. Although this group includes a wide variety of occupations, generally requiring postsecondary education, approximately twothirds of the jobs were accounted for by teachers, medi- 35 Ch®e11 . J@h gro^SIh tor m ajor ©©©yputoinsDl categories under iltoimgitihf© @©©5D@mte projddltoin)©, 1978-90 Millions of jobs -1 L White-collar workers Blue-collar workers Service workers differences among individual fields. For example, em ployment in most medical and health occupations is projected to expand very rapidly, while in many teach ing occupations it is expected to decline. Rising incomes and greater health consciousness will boost demand for health care, as will population growth—especially the substantia! increase in the number of older people, who have more need for health services. During the 1980’s, the number off persons age 75 and over is expected to advance from 9.4 to 12.0 million. As a result of these factors, opportunities for professional and technical workers in hospitals, clinics, laboratories, nursing homes, and other settings are likely to increase rapidly. Demand may be very high in rural areas and inner cit ies, as job openings in less desirable locations have tra ditionally been difficult to ill. In contrast to the rapid employment growth projected in the health field, job® for secondary, college, and university teachers are expected to decrease somewhat as a result of the decline cal professionals, health technologists and technicians, engineers, and engineering and science technicians. Over the past two decades, the professional and tech nical group has been one of the fastest growing occupa tional categories. For example, between 1966 and 1978 employment in this group increased almost twice as fast as it did in all occupations. Between 1978 and 1990, employment is projected to continue to rise faster than employment in all occupations in each of the alternative scenarios, but the difference is anticipated to be less than in the past. In the low-trend version of the econo my, employment of .professional and technical workers is projected to increase by 28.7 percent over “the same period. The growth in the high-trend I version is 35.7 percent and that for high-trend II is 30.4 percent. (See table 1.) While employment in professional and technical jobs as a whole is expected to increase faster than the aver age rate for all occupations, there will be significant Farmworkers 36 Managers and administrators. The 8.8 million workers in this broad group in 1978 included managers and ad ministrators at all levels of business and government, from corporate executives and government officials to managers of small businesses such as restaurants and repair shops. A relatively large proportion of managers — nearly 1 of 5— were self-employed. Employment in this group is projected to grow more slowly than the average during 1978-90 in each scenar io. Projected increases range from 19.1 percent in the low-trend version to between 21.3 and 27.9 percent in the high-trend alternatives. The demand for managers is more sensitive to the differences in the three scenarios than that for all occupations. Despite an overall increase in the managerial group, the number of self-employed managers has been declin ing, and this trend is expected to continue in the lowtrend and high-trend II scenarios. However, in hightrend I a small increase in self-employed managers is projected. in births that occurred in the 1960’s and 1970’s. De mand for secondary schoolteachers could fall precipi tously in the Northeast and North Central States, where the Bureau of the Census projects a drop of close to 25 percent in the number of 15- to 19-year-olds be tween 1980 and 1990. A growing number of adults have entered college in recent years, but their enrollment is not expected to completely offset the decline in tradi tional-age college students. In contrast, a small increase in the demand for preschool, kindergarten, and elemen tary teachers is anticipated, reflecting recent increases in births, as a growing number of women enter the prime childbearing ages. More opportunities for adult educa tion teachers are also foreseen. The demand for professional and technical workers as a group is less sensitive to differences among the scenar ios than the demand for workers in all occupations. However, within the professional and technical group, sensitivity varies. The demand for teachers is not affected significantly by differences in the scenarios. But alternative versions of the economy do have an impact on the projections for engineers and engineering and science technicians because these occupations are con centrated in manufacturing industries. Because the hightrend alternatives assume lower corporate tax rates and other incentives designed to stimulate business invest ment in new equipment, employment requirements in manufacturing industries which produce this equipment are higher. For example, in high-trend I, engineering employment is expected to rise by 553,(XX) between 1978 and 1990, compared with an increase of only 433,000 in the low-trend projection, which would mean about 27.7 percent more new jobs for engineers during the period. Table 1. Salesworkers. Employment in sales occupations totaled approximately 6.4 million in 1978, or about 6.6 percent of employment in all occupations. Nearly half of these workers were concentrated in retail trade, and most of the remainder worked in manufacturing and in service industries such as finance, insurance, and real estate. Employment in sales jobs is projected to grow faster than the average for all occupations during 1978-90 in each version of the economy. Employment of salesworkers rises from 6.4 to 8.0 million between 1978 and 1990 in the low-trend version, or 24.4 percent. Projected increases range from 25.8 to 34.5 percent in the high-trend versions. The demand for Employment by major occupational group, actual 1978, and alternative projections for 1990 [Numbers in thousands] P ercentage change in em ploym ent, 1978-60 1080 1978 O ccupational gro u p Low -trend High-trend I H igh-trend II Low -trend High-trend 1 H igh-trend II 100.0 22.5 31.0 24.4 61,570 20,295 10,677 8,079 22,519 50.7 16.7 8.8 6.7 18.5 24.9 28.7 19.1 24.4 24.7 33.1 35.7 27.9 34.5 33.0 26.7 30.4 21.3 25.8 26.4 31.8 12.2 13.8 5.8 38,330 14,668 16,584 7,078 31.6 12.1 13.7 5.8 18.6 22.7 15.4 17.8 27.9 32.9 24.6 26.1 20.5 25.3 16.8 19.9 20,074 993 19,081 15.7 0.8 14.9 19,220 988 18,232 15.8 0.8 15.0 31.4 -1 5 .4 35.5 39.3 -1 4 .4 44.0 33.3 -1 4 .9 37.6 2,426 1.9 2,327 1.9 -2 1 .0 -1 2 .6 -1 6 .3 Num ber P ercent Number P ercent N um ber Percent N um ber Percent Total ......................................................... 97,610 100.0 119,590 100.0 127,907 100.0 121,447 White-collar workers .......................................... Professional and technical workers . . . . Managers and adm inistrators.................... S ale sw o rke rs............................................... Clerical w o rk e rs .......................................... 48,608 15,568 8,802 6,420 17,818 49.8 15.9 9.0 6.6 18.3 60,730 20,038 10,484 7,989 22,219 50.9 16.8 8.8 6.7 18.6 64,712 21,119 11,257 8,632 23,705 50.6 16.5 8.8 6.8 18.5 Blue-collar workers ............................................. Craft and kindred w o rk e rs ......................... O p e ra tive s.................................................... Nonfarm la b o re rs ........................................ 31,812 11,705 14,205 5,902 32.6 12.0 14.6 6.0 37,720 14,366 16,399 6,955 31.5 1| ° 13.7 5.8 40,694 15,555 17,697 7,441 Service w o rk e rs.................................................... Private household workers ...................... Other service w o rk e rs ................................ 14,414 1,160 13,254 14.8 1.2 13.6 18,946 982 17,965 15.8 0.8 15.0 F a rm w orke rs......................................................... 2,775 2.8 2,193 1.8 N ote : Due to rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. 37 spur residential investment expenditures in the first half of the 1980’s. However, after 1985 it is anticipated that the rate of new household formation will decline, re flecting the decrease in births that began in the 1960’s. Business investment in construction of new plants and buildings is expected to offset some of the slack in resi dential construction during the late 1980’s. Employment of mechanics in the low-trend version is projected to rise from almost 3.8 to 4.8 million between 1978 and 1990, or 26.8 percent. However, rates of change vary considerably among the individual occupa tions. For example, the number of data processing ma chine mechanics is projected to increase 147.6 percent, while that of railroad car repairers is expected to de cline. The number of workers in the metalworking crafts expands almost as fast as the average rate for all occupations in the low-trend version, but printing trades workers are projected to increase much more slowly than average. Improvements in printing technol ogy have increased productivity and this trend should continue. The demand for craftworkers is more sensitive to dif ferences in the alternative scenarios than the demand for workers in all occupations. The projected number of new jobs for craftworkers in the high-trend alternatives is 11.3 to 44.7 percent higher than in the low-trend ver sion. In comparison, the projected number of new jobs in all occupations in the high-trend alternatives ranged from 8.5 to 37.8 percent greater than those in the lowtrend version of the economy. Craft occupations that are concentrated in manufac turing industries, such as the metalworking crafts and printing trades, are particularly sensitive to differences in the scenarios. For example, employment in metal working crafts increases by 283,000 in the high-trend I projection, which is 65 percent greater than the project ed increase of 172,000 in the low-trend version. A large proportion of metalworking craft employment is found in factories that produce equipment for business and in dustrial use. Because growth in investment for equip ment is much faster in high-trend I, employment re quirements will be greater in most industries that manufacture fabricated metal products, machinery, elec trical equipment, and transportation equipment. In some industries, the number of new metalworking craft jobs in high-trend I is more than twice the number in the low-trend version. salespersons is slightly more sensitive to the differences in the low-trend and high-trend I scenarios than it is for workers in all occupations. However, differences be tween the low-trend and high-trend II scenarios have relatively little effect on the demand for salesworkers. Clerical workers. Clerical occupations account for more jobs than any other occupational group. About 17.8 million persons or 18.3 percent of all workers, were in clerical occupations in 1978; nearly 1 of 5 clericals was either a secretary or a typist. Some other large occupa tions within this group were general office clerks, ca shiers, bookkeepers, and stock clerks. Employment of clerical workers is projected to grow faster than the average rate of employment growth in each version of the economy. Although office automa tion will enable clerical personnel to do more work in less time and change skill requirements for some jobs, continued increases in the demand for new workers are anticipated in most occupations. Demand should be particularly strong in the private sector, in industries such as retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate, legal services, and health services. At the same time, little increase in government employment of clericals is projected. Employment in clerical occupations increased 24.7 percent between 1978 and 1990 in the low-trend version of the economy. In high-trend I, the projected increase is 33 percent, and in high-trend II, 26.4 percent. For clerical workers, demand is slightly less sensitive to the differences in the low-trend and high-trend I scenarios than it is for workers in all occupations. For example, the number of new clerical jobs in high-trend I is 33.8 percent greater than that projected in the low-trend ver sion, compared with a difference of 37.8 percent for all occupations. Growth among blue-collar groups Craft and kindred workers. The 11.7 million craftworkers employed in 1978 represented about 12 percent of total employment. Construction trade workers and mechanics, the two largest occupational categories in the craft group, accounted for more than half of the group’s employment. Other blue-collar categories are supervisors, metalworking craftworkers, and printing trades workers. Employment in the craft group is pro jected to increase slightly faster than the average rate for all occupations in each of the scenarios. In the low-trend version of the economy, employment in the construction crafts grows from almost 3 million in 1978 to about 3.7 million in 1990, an increase of 27 percent. However, most of this growth is expected be fore 1985. Demand for homeownership that was thwart ed during the recession years of 1975 and 1980 should Operatives. Included in this group are many of the bluecollar workers associated with manufacturing and trans portation operations. About 14.2 million operatives were employed in 1978. More than 80 percent worked at manufacturing jobs such as assembler, machine tool operator, welder, and inspector. Outside of manufactur 38 ing, operatives were concentrated in transportation and trade. Many were transport equipment operators, such as track or bus drivers. Employment of operatives is projected to grow slower than the average for all occupations in the 1978-90 period. More efficient production as a result of greater investment in new plants and equipment should limit increases in the demand for operatives in factories. However, growth rates for individual occupations will vary, depending on the particular industries in which they are employed. Generally, occupations that are con centrated in the durable goods sector are projected to grow faster than those in industries that make nondurable goods. As family incomes rise, consumers are expected to spend an increasing proportion of in come on automobiles, furniture, and other durable goods, and a decreasing proportion on nondurables, such as food and basic clothing. High-trend alternative I affects the growth of opera tives more than that of any other occupational group. In the low-trend version, operative employment is pro jected at 6.4 million in 1990, an increase of 2.2 million over the 1978 level. The anticipated operative growth in high-trend I is 3.5 million, or 59.2 percent greater than the low-trend number. By comparison, the gain in growth for all occupations is only 37.8 percent. On the other hand, high-trend alternative II results in only an 8.3-percent greater number of new jobs than the lowtrend version, which is about the same as the percent age gain for all occupations under this alternative. Manufacturing output is much greater in high-trend I than in the low-trend scenario, which results in a higher demand for operatives, although the difference in the employment projections is moderated by the assump tion that productivity will also be greater. In contrast, the dissimilarity in the two high-trend employment pro jections for operatives is largely a result of different pro jected increases in manufacturing productivity. Between 1978 and 1990, productivity in manufacturing industries rises 33.7 percent in alternative II compared with 26.3 percent in alternative I. A slightly higher rate of in crease in manufacturing output in alternative I also con tributes to the difference in the employment projections. to be such as waiters’ assistants and in health service occupations, such as nurses’ aides and medical assis tants. The greater health care needs of a growing elder ly population will spur demand for service workers in hospitals and nursing homes. The demand for food ser vice workers should also grow as incomes rise and more families have both husbands and wives working. Em ployment of police officers, firefighters, and most other protective service workers is projected to grow slower than the average for service occupations, but faster than that for all occupations. Projected growth rates are mixed among personal service occupations. For exam ple, rapid increases in the demand for childcare workers and welfare service aides are anticipated, but only mod erate increases in employment are expected for barbers and cosmetologists. Demand for this group of service workers is less sen sitive to differences in the three scenarios than for most other occupational groups. For example, employment in the high-growth projection I is only 23.7-percent great er than employment in the low-growth projection, com pared with the 37.8-percent difference for all occupa tions. It is assumed that the additional increases in personal income in the high-trend versions will be spent primarily on goods rather than on services. Private household workers. In contrast to the rapid em ployment gain anticipated for other service workers, the number of private household workers is projected to de crease from almost 1.2 million in 1978 to between 993,OCX) and 982,(XX) in 1990. A continued decline is expected, despite an increase,in job opportunities for private household workers. The demand for maids and other private household workers should rise as more women work outside the home and personal incomes rise, but fewer people will seek employment in private households because of low wages, lack of advancement opportunities, and low social status associated with these jobs. Farmworkers More than half of the almost 2,8 million farmworkers employed in 1978 were farmers, including both owners and tenant farmers; most of the remainder were farm la borers. A small proportion were managers and supervi sors. Employment of farmworkers has declined for decades as farm productivity has risen as a result of larger, more efficient farms, improvements in mecha nized equipment, and technological innovations in seed, feed, and fertilizer. Continued drops in the number of farmworkers are expected through the 1980’s. In the low-trend version, employment falls, from almost 2.8 million in 1978 to 2.2 million in 1990, a decrease of 21 percent. The projected declines are more moderate in Service workers Service workers, except private household. Numbering 13.2 million in 1978, these service jobs accounted for about 13.6 percent of total employment. Employment in this group is expected to increase faster than in any oth er occupational group through the 1980’s in each sce nario of the economy. Projected 1978-90 increases range from 35.5 percent in the low-trend version to 44 percent in high-trend I. Employment growth is expected to be particularly rapid in food service occupations, 39 jobs in the low-trend version are presented in the list which follows. In both high-trend alternatives, licensed practical nurses drop from this list (but remain in the top 25), and are replaced by carpenters: the high-trend versions, 12.6 percent in I and 16.3 per cent in II. The number of farmers is projected to fall less rapidly than the number of farm laborers in each alternative. D etailed occupations Table 2 presents 1978-90 employment projections for all detailed occupations in the industry-occupation ma trix with employment of 25,000 or more in 1978.4 Ap proximately 340 occupations were in this category, and they accounted for about three-fourths of total employ ment in 1978. Projected rates of employment change for these selected occupations cover broad ranges in the three scenarios. For example, low-trend projections run from a 25.4-percent decline for farm laborers to a 147.6-percent increase for data processing machine me chanics. Rankings of occupations by projected growth rates are very similar for the three scenarios. The fol lowing list presents the 20 most rapidly growing de tailed occupations among the low-trend projections: Occupation Occupation Janitors and sexton s................................................. Nurses’ aides and o rd erlies.................................... Sales clerk s................................................................. Cashiers . . .................................................................. W aiters/waitresses.................................................... General clerks, o f f ic e ......................................... Professional nurses............................................. Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants .................................................... Secretaries . . . .......................................................... Truckdrivers............................................................... Kitchen h elp ers.................................................. Elementary schoolteachers ............................. T y p ists.................................................................. Accountants and au ditors................................ Helpers, trades .................................................. Blue-collar worker supervisors........................ Bookkeepers, h a n d ............................................. Licensed practical nurses ................................ Guards and doorkeepers................................... Automotive m echan ics..................................... Percent growth in employment, 1978-90 Data processing machine m ech a n ics............. . 147.6 Paralegal personnel ............................................. 132.4 Computer systems analysts ................................ 107.8 Computer op erators.................................................... 87.9 Office machine and cash register servicers . . . 80.8 Computer programmers ..................................... 73.6 Aero-astronautic engineers.................................. 70.4 Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants.................................................... 68.8 66.6 Employment interviewers .................................. Tax preparers .......................................................... 64.5 Correction officials and j a ile r s ................................. A rchitects........................................................ Dental h ygien ists............................................... . Physical th erap ists...................................................... Dental assistants ......................................................... Peripheral EDP equipment operators .................... Child-care a tten d an ts................................................. Veterinarians.......................................................... Travel agents and accomodations appraisers . . Nurses’ aides and orderlies ...................................... 60.3 671.2 594.0 590.7 545.5 531.9 529.8 515.8 491.9 487.8 437.6 300.6 272.8 262.1 254.2 232.5 221.1 219.7 215.6 209.9 205.3 The low-trend version projects employment declines for 22 of the detailed occupations and high-trend II projects drops for 21; the rankings by rates of decline are similar for both scenarios. The number of occupa tions with projected employment decreases falls to 18 in high-trend I. However, the reversals in the direction of change are not dramatic, and usually make relatively 60.2 little difference in the projected employment levels. 57.9 57.6 57.5 57.3 56.3 56.1 55.6 54.6 N ew date base The method used by BLS to develop occupational pro jections requires two basic inputs—projected employ ment by industry at a detailed industry level and projected occupational staffing patterns at the same in dustry detail. The occupational projections prepared by BLS are obtained by applying the projected occupational staffing patterns to the related industry employment projections and summing across the detailed industries.5 The Bureau has used this procedure to develop national occupational projections since the mid-1960’s.6 During the 1960’s and 1970’s, decennial census data were the primary data source for developing occupa tional staffing patterns of industries. These patterns were based largely on trends in the census data from decade to decade. However, because census data are collected only every 10 years, they were considered in adequate for analyzing trends in industry staffing pat terns. In the 1970’s, the Bureau initiated the Occupa- In high-trend alternative I, correction officials and jailers, dental hygienists, and dental assistants drop off the list of the 20 fastest growing occupations, and are replaced by real estate sales agents and representatives, dental lab technicians, and security sales agents and representatives. In high-trend II, dental assistants and travel agents drop off the list and are replaced by real estate sales agents and representatives, and economists. However, in both high-trend alternatives the displaced occupations remain among the 30' fastest growing. The rank of occupations by growth in numbers; of jobs also changes little from one scenario to another. The 20 occupations with the largest numbers of new Growth in employment (in thousands), 1978-90 40 Table 2. Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990 Occupation Total, all o ccu p ation s................................................................................................... Employment (inthousands) 1SS0 1SS0 19S0 Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II 1978 Percent change, 1978-80 Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II 97,610 119,590 127,907 121,447 22.52 31.04 24.42 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .............................................................. E ngineers....................................................................................................................... Aero-astronautic engineers .................................................................................. Chemical engineers................................................................................................. Civil engineers ........................................................................................................ Electrical eng in ee rs................................................................................................. Industrial e n g in e e rs................................................................................................. Mechanical engineers ............................................................................................ 15,570 1,071 57 53 149 291 109 199 20,038 1,504 98 68 208 441 146 274 21,119 1,624 104 73 218 479 159 300 20,295 1,531 100 70 211 448 148 279 28.70 40.41 70.35 28.92 39.38 51.18 34.03 37.56 35.64 51.61 80.86 37.70 45.59 64.41 46.49 50.67 30.34 42.92 74.81 31.80 40.97 53.90 36.37 40.18 Life and physical scientists ....................................................................................... Biological s cie n tists................................................................................................ Chemists .................................................................................................................. Geologists ............................................................................................................... Engineering and science technicians........................................................................ D ra fte rs .................................................................................................................... Electrical and electronic technicians ................................................................... Industrial engineering technicians ........................................................................ Mechanical engineering technicians ................................................................... S urve yo rs.................................................................................................................. 236 42 90 33 1,160 293 319 31 45 54 299 51 113 50 1,577 412 464 40 61 73 316 54 120 53 1,700 446 512 44 67 78 304 53 115 51 1,609 419 478 41 62 76 26.44 21.82 24.95 52.08 35.97 40.59 45.42 30.37 35.96 35.19 33.63 28.86 32.19 61.36 46.54 52.25 60.24 41.33 49.67 44.73 28.70 24.98 27.23 52.69 38.73 43.20 49.79 32.09 38.75 39.91 M etfcal workers, except technicians ..................................................................... Dentists .................................................................................................................... Dietitians .................................................................................................................. Nurses, professional .............................................................................................. O ptom etrists............................................................................................................. P ha rm a cists............................................................................................................. Physicians, medical and o ste o pa thic................................................................... Therapists .......... ................................................................................................. Physical th e rap ists.............................................................................................. Speech and hearing clinicians.......................................................................... Veterinarians ........................................................................................................... 2,026 149 41 1,026 25 140 447 139 31 34 30 2,928 208 61 1,542 33 159 626 210 49 52 47 3,094 223 65 1,618 36 171 665 220 52 53 51 2,954 212 62 1,551 33 157 631 213 50 52 50 44.55 39.59 49.69 50.28 29.66 13.36 39.98 51.51 57.63 54.50 56.13 52.77 49.24 58.61 57.69 40.65 22.36 48.70 58.67 66.46 58.29 70.27 45.83 42.37 53.43 51.20 31.20 12.10 41.23 53.19 59.73 55.33 66.11 Health technologists and technicians ..................................................................... Dental assistants...................................................................................................... Dental hygienists...................................................................................................... Health records technologists ............................................................................... Licensed practical nurses .................................................................................... Medical technicians................................................................................................. Medical lab technologists....................................................................................... Surgical technicians................................................................................................. X-ray technicians ................................................................................................... 1,246 123 53 30 491 82 98 30 86 1,811 193 84 44 707 119 141 44 126 1,906 198 86 46 752 127 149 46 133 1,820 191 84 44 717 119 141 44 126 45.34 57.48 57.92 47.10 43.89 46.04 43.90 48.13 47.44 52.93 60.95 61.42 53.57 52.98 55.31 52.70 54.63 54.71 46.03 55.91 56.38 47.26 45.96 46.36 44.32 48.00 47.21 Technicians, excluding health, science, and engineering..................................... Airplane p ilo ts ........................................................................................................... Air traffic controllers .............................................................................................. Technical assistants, lib r a r y .................................................................................. Computer specialists................................................................................................... Computer programmers ....................................................................................... Computer systems a n a ly s ts .................................................................................. Social scientists ........................................................................................................... E conom ists............................................................................................................... Psychologists . . , ! ................................................................................................. 271 74 28 34 389 204 185 176 27 78 343 94 34 48 738 354 384 243 41 107 362 101 34 49 793 381 412 256 43 111 347 96 34 48 754 361 392 248 42 109 26.82 27.00 21.67 42.07 89.83 73.57 107.75 38.12 54.17 36.79 33.78 35.47 24.18 42.78 104.05 86.90 122.97 45.51 62.93 42.69 28.11 28.81 21.93 41.71 93.94 77.22 112.38 41.26 56.30 39.31 T e a c h e rs ....................................................................................................................... Adult education te a c h e rs ....................................................................................... College and university teachers ................................ .......................................... Teachers, vocational education and training ................................................. Teachers, college .............................................................................................. Graduate assistan ts............................................................................................ Elementary schoolteachers .................................................................................. Preschool and kindergarten teachers ................................................................ Secondary schoolteachers.................................................................................... 3,877 105 618 26 454 131 1,277 455 1,229 4,079 123 557 33 409 110 1,550 574 1,071 4,113 126 560 34 410 110 1,556 579 1,075 4,074 124 556 33 408 109 1,546 572 1,068 5.22 18.02 -9 .7 8 26.49 -1 0 .0 6 -1 6 .4 5 21.37 26.16 -1 2 .8 7 6.09 20.75 -9 .3 0 30.29 -9 .7 2 -1 6 .1 3 21.82 27.31 -1 2 .5 4 5.08 18.31 -9 .9 7 26.85 -1 0 .2 8 -1 6 .6 5 21.08 25.75 -1 3 .0 8 Selected writers, artists, and e n te rta in e rs.............................................................. Commeraal artists ................................................................................................. D esigners.................................................................................................................. Musicians, instrumental ......................................................................................... Photographers ........................................................................................................ Public relations sp e cia lists.................................................................................... Radio and TV a n n o u n c e rs.................................................................................... Reporters and correspondents............................................................................. Sports instructors ................................................................................................... Writers and editors ................................................................................................. 888 100 169 126 77 81 46 54 34 109 1,117 122 194 160 104 102 66 68 41 142 1,198 134 212 166 113 109 68 74 43 155 1,134 126 190 166 104 104 66 70 41 146 25.78 22.25 15.22 27.15 35.95 26.06 43.02 27.59 20.16 30.33 34.93 33.97 25.49 31.73 47.21 34.81 48.74 37.44 26.64 41.59 27.75 26.58 12.87 31.67 35.30 29.15 43.35 31.25 20.56 34.03 Other professional and technical w o rk e rs .............................................................. Accountants and auditors .................................................................................... Appraisers, real estate ......................................................................................... A rc h ite cts.................................................................................................................. Assessors ................................................................................................................ Buyers, retail and wholesale trade ..................................................................... Caseworkers ........................................................................................................... Clergy ....................................................................................................................... Community organization workers ........................................................................ Cost estimators ...................................................................................................... Directors, religious education and activities ...................................................... Employment interviews ......................................................................................... 4,183 777 32 66 30 238 236 287 49 80 36 51 5,338 1,031 47 106 38 296 338 292 71 105 37 86 5,692 1,107 50 112 38 320 350 313 74 112 40 95 5,457 1,055 48 109 38 298 3^6 301 73 108 38 88 27.61 32.72 46.38 60.20 28.03 24.37 43.32 1.67 46.74 31.80 3.29 66.59 36.07 42.50 56.88 70.18 30.27 34.15 48.42 9.19 51.38 40.84 11.13 85.55 30.46 35.83 49.79 64.53 28.26 25.13 46.57 5.12 49.76 34.94 6.96 72.02 41 T ab le 2. Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and p ro je c te d 1990 E m ploym ent Occupation 1980 Low-trend 1978 (inthousands) Percent change, 1973-80 18S0 High-trend I High-trend II Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II F o re s te rs .................................................................................................................. Law clerks ............................................................................................................... L a w y e rs .................................................................................................................... Paralegal personnel .............................................................................................. L ib ra ria n s.................................................................................................................. Personnel anr lbor relations sp e cialists........................................................... Purchasing agents and buyers ............................................................................. Recreation woi kers, g ro u p .................................................................................... Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue a g e n ts ............................................... Tax p re p a re rs.......................................................................................................... Travel agents and accommodations a p p ra is e rs ............................................... U nderw riters............................................................................................................. Vocational and educational co u n s e lo rs .............................................................. 26 30 380 28 130 169 164 121 50 29 45 70 202 32 43 524 66 139 205 200 152 60 47 70 90 212 34 48 580 75 142 217 214 160 61 54 74 93 215 33 44 543 69 140 208 202 157 60 51 70 90 213 22.15 44.04 37.85 132.35 6.78 21.08 21.96 26.41 19.39 64.52 55.64 28.40 4.66 27.33 62.47 52.71 165.68 8.76 28.21 30.69 32.63 21.65 87.75 65.46 33.86 6.29 25.25 49.85 43.05 142.99 7.12 22.86 23.69 29.99 19.61 77.93 56.08 28.98 5.27 Managers, officials, and proprietors ........................................................................ Auto parts department m a na g e rs........................................................................ Auto service department managers ................................................................... Construction inspectors, public administration ................................................. Inspectors, excluding construction, public adm inistration................................ Postmasters and mail superintendents ...................................................... . Railroad conductors .............................................................................................. Restaurant, cafe, and bar m a na g e rs................................................................... Sales managers, retail trade ............................................................................... Store managers ...................................................................................................... W h o le sa le rs............................................................................................................. 8,802 48 60 44 104 28 33 499 261 926 234 10,484 54 69 61 125 29 31 642 323 1,102 279 11,257 59 75 62 128 30 34 680 351 1,183 307 10,677 59 75 61 125 29 32 650 323 1,107 284 19.10 13.20 15.02 37.37 20.58 4.07 -6 .6 3 28.65 24.14 18.95 19.60 27.89 23.01 24.97 39.81 22.88 7.92 2.93 36.25 34.83 27.76 31.35 21.31 23.28 25.46 37.62 20.82 4.84 -5 .5 2 30.27 23.93 19.52 21.42 S ale sw o rke rs................................................................ .............................................. Real estate b ro ke rs................................................................................................ Sales agents and representatives, real e s ta te ................................................. Sales agents and representatives, in su ra n ce .................................................... Sales agents and representatives, security ...................................................... S a le s c le rk s ............................................................................................................. 6,443 34 255 310 55 2,771 7,989 48 394 399 80 3,362 8,632 52 430 420 92 3,601 8,079 49 400 405 88 3,362 23.99 42.34 54.09 28.61 45.79 21.32 33.97 55.92 68.42 35.66 66.81 29.96 25.40 44.47 56.74 30.81 60.70 21.32 Clerical w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................... Adjustment c le r k s ................................................................................................... Bank tellers ............................................................................................................. New accounts te lle rs ......................................................................................... Tellers .................................................................................................................. Bookkeepers and accounting c le r k s ................................................................... Accounting clerks .............................................................................................. Bookkeepers, hand ............................................................................................ C a sh iers.................................................................................................................... Claims a d ju s te rs ...................................................................................................... Claims clerks .......................................................................................................... Claims examiners, insurance ............................................................................... Clerical supervisors................................................................................................ Collectors, bill and account .................................................................................. Credit clerks, banking and insurance ............ ................................................... Desk clerks, except bowling f lo o r ........................................................................ Dispatchers, police, fire, and a m b u la n c e ........................................................... Dispatchers, vehicle service or w o r k ................................................................... Eligibility workers, welfare .................................................................................... File clerks ............................................................................................................... General clerks, office ............................................................................................ Insurance clerks, m e dic al...................................................................................... Library assistants ................................................................................................... Mail carriers, postal s e rv ic e .................................................................................. Mail clerks ............................................................................................................... Marking clerks, tra d e .............................................................................................. Messengers ............................................................................................................. Meter readers, u tilitie s ............................................................................................ 17,820 37 440 48 392 1,628 700 927 1,501 65 63 38 402 85 47 75 46 89 30 251 2,269 63 117 237 75 44 47 28 22,219 45 601 65 536 1,982 835 1,147 2,046 95 92 58 518 108 62 97 60 108 38 328 2,799 93 128 260 94 54 60 32 23,705 48 619 67 552 2,131 895 1,236 . 2,165 98 96 59 552 119 68 109 61 116 39 349 3,002 97 129 270 99 57 64 38 22,519 46 606 66 540 2,014 845 1,168 2,070 95 93 58 526 113 66 98 60 107 39 332 2,839 92 128 262 96 55 61 32 24.69 23.89 36.40 34.65 36.62 21.79 19.27 23.69 36.35 46.63 47.26 51.53 29.01 26.52 31.00 29.27 28.22 21.58 29.67 30.77 23.35 46.69 8.77 9.77 25.19 21.24 28.24 14.64 33.03 29.83 40.61 39.23 40.78 30.95 27.82 33.32 44.27 51.65 52.78 54.74 37.45 39.53 43.91 46.09 30.47 29.62 32.16 39.31 32.28 53.95 9.98 13.83 31.61 27.88 37.38 33.57 26.37 24.57 37.51 36.57 37.62 23.72 20.74 25.96 37.96 47.21 48.08 52.29 30.81 32.26 39.79 30.91 28.45 20.55 30.28 32.42 25.11 45.77 8.74 10.58 27.50 23.46 31.97 15.04 Office machine o pe ra to rs....................................................................................... Bookkeeping and billing o pe ra to rs................................................................... Bookkeeping, billing machine o p e ra to rs .................................................... Proof machine operators ............................................................................. Computer, peripheral equipment operators ................................................. Computer o p e ra to rs....................................................................................... Peripheral EDP equipment o p e ra to rs ......................................................... Duplicating machine operators ........................................................................ Keypunch operators ......................................................................................... 842 218 166 44 215 169 46 31 295 1,133 283 212 60 389 317 72 38 316 1,211 301 228 61 415 338 76 41 341 1,147 283 212 59 397 323 73 39 321 34.52 29.84 27.72 37.07 81.32 87.90 57.26 22.46 7.03 43.85 37.92 37.57 39.56 93.19 100.74 65.55 31.01 15.56 36.21 29.41 27.63 35.56 84.73 91.71 59.15 24.56 8.78 Order c le r k s ............................................................................................................. Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ............................................................................. Personnel c le r k s ...................................................................................................... Postal c le rk s .............................................................. .............................................. Procurement c le r k s ................................................................................................. Production clerks ................................................................................................... Raters ........................... ........................................................................................... Receptionists ........................................................................................................... Reservation a g e n ts ................................................................................................ Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts .............................................................. S ec re ta ries........................................................................................................... Stenographers ........................................................................................................ T y p is ts ....................................................................................................................... 240 172 90 310 39 192 51 369 52 3,574 2,319 262 993 289 211 309 46 234 63 505 55 4,383 2,807 322 1,255 316 226 118 321 50 257 66 540 59 4,678 3,007 341 1,330 288 214 113 312 47 238 64 511 56 4,458 2,860 326 1,271 20.25 22.13 23.40 - .2 8 19.53 22.33 23.56 37.00 6.64 22.65 21.03 22.76 26.40 31.49 31.01 30.14 3.41 28.38 34.03 28.73 46.36 13.57 30.89 29.64 30.20 33.98 19.88 24.08 24.79 .46 20.72 24.48 24.14 38.57 7.48 24.72 23.31 24.46 28.09 Shipping and receiving c le rk s .................................................................................... 378 448 488 452 18.52 28.92 19.38 111 42 Table 2. Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990 Occupation 1978 Employment (inthousands) 1030 1S80 1930 Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II Percent change, 1978-90 Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II 276 497 376 218 113 40 51 33 42 431 45 101 1,043 52 298 500 414 234 128 45 54 34 45 401 44 96 977 49 282 495 382 222 114 40 51 33 42 17.10 45.76 16.85 22.44 17.84 25.96 23.00 20.60 27.65 11.24 13.47 3.75 28.55 17.92 26.90 49.57 24.09 32.47 27.72 36.08 23.79 32.58 37.18 26.08 28.59 10.11 30.80 26.90 17.99 45.81 18.23 24.16 21.46 28.71 22.59 22.54 30.05 12.62 14.85 4.61 28.78 19.15 11,679 2,950 144 979 50 25 113 92 51 30 516 35 363 375 99 67 14,366 3,747 204 1,183 65 35 152 125 70 42 678 48 436 492 130 90 15,555 4,037 220 1,274 72 38 164 135 76 46 726 51 477 526 139 95 14,668 3,841 211 1,228 67 36 157 128 72 43 693 49 429 504 133 92 23.01 27.04 41.71 20.82 29.41 36.88 34.61 35.46 39.20 40.68 31.44 35.53 20.02 31.06 31.05 33.07 33.19 36.85 52.76 30.17 43.35 50.70 44.96 46.23 50.46 51.68 40.77 44.62 31.27 40.04 40.91 40.57 25.60 30.24 46.35 25.46 33.48 41.16 38.82 38.99 43.19 43.66 34.33 40.02 18.25 34.40 35.03 36.37 Mechanics, repairers, and installers ........................................................................ Air conditioning, heating, and refrigerator mechanics ..................................... Aircraft mechanics ................................................................................................ Auto body repairers .............................................................................................. Automotive m echanics............................................................................................ Coin machine servicers and re p a ire rs ................................................................ Data processing machine mechanics ................................................................ Diesel mechanics ................................................................................................... Electric power line installers and repairers ...................................................... Cable s p lic e rs ...................................................................................................... Line installers and re p a ire rs ............................................................................. 3,758 165 97 154 847 27 63 166 157 40 110 4,764 213 125 189 1,052 29 156 214 189 48 133 5,157 230 133 201 1,124 31 172 227 215 54 151 4,863 216 126 193 1,082 25 162 214 192 48 136 26.77 29.04 28.32 22.67 24.25 9.53 147.62 29.29 20.33 18.54 21.30 37.24 39.10 36.20 30.40 32.71 16.43 173.02 37.24 36.48 34.14 37.45 29.40 30.65 29.47 25.13 27.77 -7 .7 9 157.14 29.36 22.12 19.99 23.24 Engineering equipment mechanics ..................................................................... Gas and electric appliance re p a ire rs................................................................... Instrument repairers .............................................................................................. Maintenance mechanics ....................................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general utility ................................................................ Millwrights ................................................................................................................ Office machine and cash register s e rv ic e rs ...................................................... Radio and television repairers ............................................................................. Railroad car repairers ............................................................................................ Telephone installers and repairers ..................................................................... Central office repairers .................................................................................... Installers, repairers, and section maintainers ............................................... Station installers ................................................................................................. 86 57 36 346 626 93 49 81 30 228 47 69 55 104 70 42 411 785 108 89 112 24 273 56 83 65 112 78 45 439 846 114 96 122 27 310 63 94 74 107 70 42 418 795 109 91 117 25 277 57 84 66 20.83 21.39 14.62 18.83 25.52 15.47 80.78 37.56 -18.81 20.21 19.40 20.36 19.62 30.45 35.29 24.03 27.06 35.18 22.39 96.24 49.60 -1 0 .4 7 36.29 35.31 36.34 35.61 24.90 21.24 15.79 21.10 27.01 16.79 86.69 44.10 -1 7 .8 5 21.85 20.86 22.01 21.11 Metalworking craftworkers, except m ech an ics................................................. B oilerm akers................................ ....................................................................... Heat treaters, annealers, and te m p e re rs ....................................................... Machine tool setters, m e ta lw orkin g ................................................................ M achinists............................................................................................................. Sheet metal workers and tin s m ith s ................................................................ Tool and die makers ......................................................................................... 909 42 25 57 272 205 166 1,081 52 29 1,192 57 32 74 358 280 221 1,106 54 30 67 331 267 197 18.96 25.56 16.06 16.10 18.82 27.57 15.96 31.11 36.70 25.79 29.85 31.66 36.95 33.10 21.69 30.12 16.70 18.52 21.95 30.63 18.79 Printing trades c ra ftw o rk e rs .................................................................................. Compositors and typesetters ........................... .............................................. Press and plate p rin te rs .................................................................................... Letter press operators .................................................................................. Offset lithographic press operators ........................................................... Press operators and plate printers ........................................................... 386 123 168 36 75 35 442 121 197 39 92 41 476 130 211 42 99 458 124 204 40 96 42 14.72 -1 .9 2 17.42 8.99 22.55 16.10 43.55 5.96 25.92 17.88 31.91 21.82 18.72 1.03 21.68 13.64 27.61 17.87 Other crafts and related workers ........................................................................ B a k e r s .................................................................................................................. Blue-collar worker supervisors ........................................................................ Cabinetmakers ................................................................................................... Crane, derrick, and hoist o p e ra to rs ................................................................ Dental lab technicians ....................................................................................... Furniture upholsterers ....................................................................................... Heavy equipment o p e ra to rs ............................................................................. Inspectors............................................................................................................. Jewelers and silversmiths ............................................................................... Merchandise displayers and window trim m e rs ............................................. Opticians ............................................................................................................. Sewage plant o p e ra to rs.................................................................................... Stationary engineers ......................................................................................... 3,677 60 1,274 72 126 48 30 431 475 29 26 30 4,332 72 1,495 89 146 69 38 546 544 32 31 42 43 68 4,693 76 1,616 95 157 79 43 598 595 35 4,400 74 1,520 17.82 20.11 17.36 22.96 15.72 44.91 27.31 26.57 14.70 10.74 17.84 38.61 15.01 13.48 27.64 27.22 26.87 31.00 23.73 67.04 41.84 38.65 25.43 21.54 26.30 50.56 18.28 19.89 19.67 22.97 19.33 21.36 17.75 48.65 31.43 29.83 16.73 7.24 20.68 34.65 15.26 14.40 Shipping packers ........................................................................................................ Statement clerks ........................................................................................................ Statistical c le r k s ........................................................................................................... Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .............................................................. Survey workers .......................................................................................................... Switchboard operators/receptionists ..................................................................... Teacher’s aides, except m o n ito rs............................................................................. Telephone o pe ra to rs................................................................................................... Switchboard operators ......................................................................................... Central office o p e ra to rs......................................................................................... Directory assistance o p e ra to rs............................................................................. Ticket a g e n ts ............................................................................................................... Town c le r k s .................................................................................................................. W e ig h e rs ....................................................................................................................... 787 398 44 95 964 40 219 404 312 171 101 35 49 26 35 Crafts and related w o rk e rs ............................................................................................ Construction craftworkers ......................................................................................... B rickm asons............................................................................................................. C a rp e n te rs............................................................................................................... Carpet cutters and layers .................................................................................... Ceiling tile installers and floor la y e rs ................................................................... Concrete and terrazzo finishers .......................................................................... Dry wall installers and lathers ............................................................................. Dry wall a p p lica to rs............................................................................................ T a p e r s .................................................................................................................. E lectricians............................................................................................................... G la z ie rs .................................................................................................................... Painters, construction and maintenance ........................................................... Plumbers and pipefitters ....................................................................................... Roofers .................................................................................................................... Structural steel w o rk e rs ......................................................................................... 340 30 81 38 60 43 48 66 323 261 192 43 33 46 45 72 88 149 71 39 560 554 31 32 41 43 68 Tab!© 2. C ontinued— Civilian em ploym ent in o ccu pa tion s'w ith 25,000 w orkers o r more, actual 197§ and pro je cte d 1990 Employment (inthousands) Occupation 1990 Low-trend 1978 Percent change, 1978-80 1880 High-trend 1 High-trend II Low-trend High-trend I High-trend II Tailors .................................................................................................................. T e s te rs .................................................................................................................. Water treatment plant o p e ra to rs ..................................................................... 66 105 27 75 120 32 83 130 33 77 122 32 14.34 14.55 15.98 25.05 23.83 21.15 16.75 16.48 16.30 O p e ra tive s.................................................................................................................... Assemblers ............................................................................................................. Electrical and electronic a sse m b le rs.............................................................. Electro-mechanical equipment assemblers ................................................. Machine assemblers ......................................................................................... Bindery operatives ................................................................................................. Bindery workers, asse m b ly............................................................................... Laundering, drycleaning, and pressing machine operators ........................... Laundry operators, small establishm ent......................................................... Pressers: Hand ................................................................................................................ Machine .......................................................................................................... Machine, laundry ............................................................................................ Washers, machine and starchers ................................................................... 14,205 1,672 207 53 100 81 41 316 34 16,399 1,997 278 69 124 86 43 356 48 17,697 2,192 305 78 144 94 47 404 53 16,584 2,029 281 71 127 90 45 375 49 15.44 19.44 34.24 29.89 24.76 6.57 6.64 12.48 39.62 24.58 31.07 47.30 46.37 44.67 15.63 15.99 27.76 56.00 16.75 2-1.33 36.07 32.13 27.48 10.72 10.95 18.68 44.80 30 54 66 56 32 56 74 79 36 65 84 87 33 59 78 82 7.18 2.41 11.76 41.42 19.30 18.80 26.65 55.69 10.79 8.76 18.08 47.19 Metalworking operatives ....................................................................................... Drill press and boring machine o pe ra to rs...................................................... Electroplaters ...................................................................................................... Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal ........................................ Lathe machine operators, metal ..................................................................... Machine tool operators: Combination ................................................................................................... Numerical c o n tro l........................................................................................... Tool r o o m ........................................................................................................ Milling and planing machine o p e ra to rs........................................................... Power brake and bending machine operators, metal ................................ Punch press operators, m e ta l.......................................................................... Welders and flamecutters ............................................................................... 1,650 123 35 131 153 1,970 148 44 154 186 2,211 167 48 173 210 2,025 151 45 157 191 19.38 19.57 24.38 17.43 22.03 33.97 35.39 34.56 32.37 37.69 22.71 22.60 27.29 20.01 25.29 170 49 40 68 41 195 570 200 61 46 83 48 217 696 226 70 52 95 54 240 784 208 63 47 86 49 222 720 17.91 24.18 15.31 21.58 19.01 11.25 22.14 33.43 41.49 31.63 39.59 32.29 23.05 37.60 21.47 27.45 17.99 25.21 21.31 13.80 26.45 Mine operatives, not elsewhere classified ......................................................... Roustabouts ........................................................................................................ Packing and inspecting operatives ..................................................................... Baggers ............................................................................................................... Production packagers ....................................................................................... Selectors, glasswares ....................................................................................... Painters, manufactured articles .......................................................................... Painters, automotive ......................................................................................... Painters, p ro d u ctio n ............................................................................................ Sewers and s titch e rs.............................................................................................. Sewing machine operators: Regular equipment, g a rm e n t........................................................................ Special equipment, g a rm e n t........................................................................ Regular equipment, n o n g a rm e n t................................................................ Special equipment, nongarment ................................................................ 170 61 906 215 612 .32 166 40 113 919 239 81 981 238 661 35 205 56 132 967 259 85 1,041 250 704 35 222 59 145 1,065 243 79 993 242 669 33 206 55 134 987 41.00 31.42 8.30 10.64 7.94 8.84 23.42 40.04 17.34 5.25 52.69 37.94 14.93 16.32 15.08 10.93 33.46 45.98 29.04 15.93 43.44 29.43 9.67 12.75 9.35 3.75 24.05 37.34 19.02 7.39 616 89 144 40 634 96 161 45 702 108 175 49 647 98 164 46 2.96 8.61 12.08 13.10 14.02 19.98 21.22 21.74 5.15 11.00 13.58 14.41 Textile operatives ................................................................................................... Folders, hand ...................................................................................................... Spinners, fra m e ................................................................................................... W e a v e rs............................................................................................................... Transport equipment o p e ra tiv e s .......................................................................... Ambulance drivers and attendants ................................................................ Busdrivers .......................................................................................................... Chauffeurs .......................................................................................................... Delivery and route workers ............................................................................. Industrial truck o p e ra to rs .................................................................................. Parking a ttendants.............................................................................................. Railroad brake o p e ra to rs ................................................................................. Taxi d riv e rs .......................................................................................................... Truckdrivers ........................................................................................................ 394 27 31 37 3,468 28 266 39 802 408 37 74 79 1,672 399 29 32 33 4,152 41 326 48 916 459 44 67 69 2,110 419 32 32 33 4,428 42 329 52 991 493 51 73 78 2,246 396 30 31 32 4,140 40 321 48 901 464 58 68 72 2,102 1.36 8.64 1.38 -1 1 .1 8 19.70 45.30 22.49 24.63 14.28 12.50 21.56 -1 0 .2 7 -1 2 .5 9 26.16 6.53 19.29 4.18 -8 .8 5 27.68 48.79 23.76 34.13 23.52 20.69 40.23 -1 .2 6 - .8 7 34.30 .58 9.13 - .5 7 -1 1 .4 5 19.35 40.86 20.65 24.76 12.33 13.60 58.07 -9 .0 8 -8 .9 8 25.69 All other o p e ra tive s................................................................................................ Asbestos and insulation w o rk e rs ..................................................................... Cutters, m a c h in e ................................................................................................ Dressmakers, except factory .......................................................................... Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers ........................................................... Fuel pump attendants and lubricators ........................................................... Furnace operators and tenders, except metal ............................................ Stationary boiler firers .................................................................................. Miscellaneous machine operatives: Lumber and furniture .................................................................................... Chemicals and allied products ................................................................... Rubber and miscellaneous plastics ........................................................... 4,311 42 29 53 127 434 62 47 4,882 58 32 49 151 475 65 51 5,189 62 34 53 168 492 67 53 4,936 60 32 50 155 481 65 51 13.25 37.75 9.86 -8 .3 3 19.56 9.51 4.97 6.80 20.38 47.32 16.86 - .5 4 33.04 13.40 9.15 10.99 14.52 41.52 11.83 -5.4 1 22.66 10.96 4.98 7.13 51 153 229 59 167 284 60 176 292 56 172 282 16.21 9.13 23.99 18.45 15.20 27.67 9.74 12.82 23.40 103 249 53 40 66 31 32 68 48 123 257 51 48 81 42 37 54 68 128 275 55 52 89 45 40 59 70 123 258 52 49 81 42 38 55 68 19.27 3.11 -2 .3 6 19.52 22.68 34.02 15.46 -1 9 .9 8 39.92 24.60 10.46 4.32 30.02 34.55 41.28 26.45 -1 3 .0 7 45.20 18.90 3.69 -1.3 1 21.65 22.40 32.91 17.92 -1 9 .2 4 41.45 Miscellaneous operatives, not elsewhere classified: Durable g o o d s ................................................................................................ Nondurable goods ......................................................................................... Mixing operatives................................................................................................ O ile r s .................................................................................................................... Photographic process workers ........................................................................ Rotary drill operator h e lp e rs ............................................................................. Shear and slitter operators, m e ta l................................................................... Shoemaking machine operators ..................................................................... Surveyor h e lp e rs ................................................................................................. 44 Table 2. Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990 Occupation Employment (inthousands) 1890 1880 1890 Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II 1978 Percent change, 1978-80 Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II Tire changers and re p a ire rs ............................................................................. Winding operatives, not elsewhere classified ............................................... Coil winders ................................................................................................... Wirers, electronic .............................................................................................. Wood m achinists................................................................................................. 60 48 29 28 27 71 58 37 35 33 77 62 40 38 34 73 59 38 36 32 17.47 21.91 27.30 24.46 23.67 27.18 30.43 39.55 36.15 27.82 20.94 24.02 30.02 28.08 22.10 Service w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................... Food service workers ............................................................................................ Bakers, bread and p a s try .................................................................................. Bartenders .......................................................................................................... Butchers and meat c u tte rs ............................................................................... Cooks, except private household ................................................................... Cooks, institutional......................................................................................... Cooks, restaurant ......................................................................................... Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ............................................ Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurant .................... Hosts/hostesses, restaurant, lounge, coffee shop ..................................... Kitchen h e lp e rs ................................................................................................... Pantry, sandwich, and coffee makers ........................................................... W aiters/waitresses ............................................................................................ Waiters’ assistants.............................................................................................. 14,414 5,610 45 347 178 1,024 296 320 408 714 104 771 64 1,539 252 18,946 7,774 57 453 212 1,367 370 445 552 1,206 154 1,072 92 2,071 363 20,074 8,192 59 480 225 1,438 386 471 580 1,265 163 1,131 97 2,186 384 19,220 7,827 57 457 214 1,379 378 448 554 1,210 155 1,084 92 2,084 366 31.44 38.57 27.08 30.35 18.64 33.50 25.19 39.18 35.07 68.84 48.61 38.98 43.07 34.56 43.72 39.27 46.02 33.19 38.05 25.84 40.48 30.68 47.43 42.13 77.10 57.14 46.74 51.80 42.09 52.20 33.34 39.53 27.91 31.64 19.90 34.74 27.69 40.12 35.63 69.37 49.05 40.53 43.28 35.43 45.03 Janitors and s e x to n s .............................................................................................. Selected health service w o rk e rs .......................................................................... Medical a ssista n ts.............................................................................................. Nurses’ aides and orderlies ............................................................................. Psychiatric a id e s ............ .................................................................................... Selected personal service w o rk e rs ..................................................................... Barbers ................................................................................................................ Child-care atte n d an ts......................................................................................... Child-care workers ..................................................................... .................. Cosmetologists and womens’ hair stylists .................................................... Elevator o p e ra to rs.............................................................................................. Flight attendants ................................................................................................. Game and ride operators and concession w o rk e rs ..................................... Housekeepers, hotel and motel ..................................................................... Recreation facility attendants .......................................................................... Reducing instructors ......................................................................................... School monitors ................................................................................................. Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket ta k e r s .................................................. Welfare service aides ....................................................................................... 2,585 1,251 81 1,089 77 1,547 114 35 398 434 45 51 28 49 65 26 37 40 84 3,257 1,921 116 1,683 115 2,028 142 55 581 530 59 64 37 67 83 29 38 46 126 3,504 2,051 123 1,801 120 2,206 160 60 615 603 64 68 38 74 85 35 38 46 132 3,317 1,963 116 1,725 116 2,108 149 59 600 566 60 65 36 69 82 32 38 46 130 25.96 53.53 44.20 54.56 49.50 31.08 23.90 56.26 46.10 22.22 30.70 26.82 33.10 35.70 28.33 12.22 3.03 15.44 51.15 35.52 63.93 52.27 65.40 56.20 42.56 40.06 67.85 54.55 38.89 40.89 34.56 35.85 50.95 31.02 35.84 3.41 14.50 57.25 28.30 56.90 43.52 58.43 49.86 36.20 30.14 66.53 50.76 30.43 32.30 27.75 29.47 39.86 27.63 25.21 2.78 13.87 55.24 Protective service w o rk e rs .................................................................................... Correction officials and ja ile rs .......................................................................... Crossing or bridge te n d e rs ............................................................................... Crossing guards, s c h o o l.................................................................................... Firefighters .......................................................................................................... Fire o ffic e rs.......................................................................................................... Guards and d o o rke e p e rs.............................. ............................................... Police d e te ctive s................................................................................................. Police o ffic e rs ...................................................................................................... Police p a trolm e n /w o m en .................................................................................. Private household w o rk e rs .................................................................................... Child-care workers, private h ousehold........................................................... Housekeepers, private h o u se h o ld ................................................................... Maids and servants, private household ................. ....................................... Supervisors, nonworking, service ........................................................................ All other service w o rk e rs ....................................................................................... 1,586 95 27 38 200 46 591 59 94 358 1,160 486 118 530 189 484 2,098 152 32 48 256 59 801 72 119 459 982 412 100 449 254 633 2,189 154 33 49 260 60 868 74 121 467 993 417 101 455 270 670 2,120 152 32 49 256 59 820 72 119 460 988 414 100 452 256 640 32.28 60.28 18.07 28.55 27.62 28.56 35.52 23.08 26.68 28.02 -15.41 -1 5 .3 2 -1 5 .4 0 -1 5 .2 0 34.12 30.76 38.02 63.08 20.76 30.81 29.88 30.81 46.80 25.33 28.93 30.26 -1 4 .3 9 -1 4 .2 9 -1 4 .3 9 -1 4 .1 9 42.27 38.33 33.71 60.55 18.21 28.79 27.86 28.79 38.73 23.30 26.91 28.25 -1 4 .8 7 -1 4 .7 8 -1 4 .8 6 -1 4 .6 7 35.10 32.29 Laborers, except fa r m ................................................................................................. Animal c a re ta k e rs .............................................................................................. Construction laborers, excluding carpenter h e lp e rs..................................... Highway maintenance workers ................................................................... P ip e la yers........................................................................................................ Reinforcing-iron w o rk e rs ............................................................................... Cannery w o rk e rs ................................................................................................. Cleaners, ve h icle ................................................................................................. Conveyor operators and tenders ................................................................... Garbage collectors ............................................................................................ Gardeners and groundkeepers, except farm ............................................... Helpers, tr a d e s ................................................................................................... Line service attendants .................................................................................... O ff-b e a re rs........................................................................................................... R ig ge rs.................................................................................................................. Stock handlers ................................................................................................... Order fille rs ...................................................................................................... Stock clerks, sales f lo o r ............................................................................... Timbercutting and logging workers ................................................................ Fallers and b u c k e rs ....................................................................................... 5,902 88 277 170 43 31 82 118 55 110 639 928 27 25 28 918 352 566 70 43 6,955 113 348 211 54 42 80 150 62 137 738 1,161 32 28 33 1,131 407 724 59 36 7,441 122 365 215 60 45 84 159 68 148 789 1,255 34 28 35 1,210 445 766 63 38 7,078 124 352 212 55 43 89 160 63 137 765 1,193 32 26 34 1,137 405 731 61 37 17.83 27.63 25.74 24.44 25.48 34.50 -2 .5 3 27.04 13.82 24.37 15.58 25.04 17.74 9.73 16.99 23.18 15.52 27.95 -1 5 .9 6 -1 6 .6 0 26.07 38.19 31.67 26.61 38.32 41.55 3.18 35.07 23.96 34.39 23.50 35.20 25.49 10.76 24.70 31.82 26.18 35.34 -1 0 .9 0 -11.51 19.92 40.57 27.01 24.66 27.80 37.99 8.85 35.76 15.65 24.34 19.71 28.49 18.61 3.94 19.58 23.82 15.08 29.26 -1 3 .5 8 -1 4 .1 8 Farmers and fa rm w o rk e rs......................................................................................... Farmers and farm m a n a g e rs ............................................................................... Farmers (owners and tenants) ........................................................................ Farm m anagers.................................................................................... .............. Farm supervisors and la b o re rs ............................................................................. Farm supervisors................................................................................................. Farm la b o re rs ...................................................................................................... 2,775 1,486 1,445 41 1,289 32 1,257 2,193 1,231 1,200 31 963 25 938 2,426 1,355 1,321 34 1,071 28 1,044 2,327 1,281 1,248 34 1,046 27 1,019 -2 0 .9 7 -1 7 .1 8 -1 6 .9 6 -2 5 .0 2 -2 5 .3 5 -2 2 .4 0 -2 5 .4 2 -1 2 .5 7 -8.81 -8.6 1 -1 5 .7 8 -1 6 .9 0 -1 3 .0 0 -1 7 .0 0 -1 6 .1 3 -1 3 .7 6 -1 3 .6 5 -1 7 .6 5 -1 8 .8 7 -1 4 .2 5 -1 8 .9 9 45 mated 90 percent of total employment in an occupation, the data were collapsed into residual categories in the matrix. (About 400 occupations were treated in this manner.) If the survey accounted for more than an esti mated 90 percent of an occupation’s employment, the remainder was estimated on the basis of patterns from the census-based matrix. Estimates of employment in selected industries for about 200 occupations were de veloped through this procedure, but the sum of these estimates accounted for less than 4 percent of total na tional employment. The OES surveys do not cover self-employed workers and unpaid family workers. Occupational employment estimates for these classes of workers also were devel oped from CPS and census-based matrix data and reclassi fied into the OES occupational framework. However, be cause of data limitations and resource constraints the occupational estimates for self-employed and unpaid family workers were not distributed across industries. Consequently, industry/occupation cross-tabulations are available only for wage-and-salary employment. To de velop total employment estimates by occupation, em ployment of wage-and-salary workers was added to totals of self-employed and unpaid family workers. Detailed occupational employment estimates in the OES survey-based matrix for 1978-90 generally are not comparable with those in previous census-based matri ces because of many major differences in the underlying data sources. The census counts persons, whereas the OES survey counts jobs. The employment total in the OES matrix is higher than the total in the census matrix, because one person may hold more than one job. The difference between the numbers of jobs and of persons employed in 1978 was roughly 10 percent, but it varied among occupations. The census is a household survey, while the o e s study is directed at employers. Household surveys generally are completed by one individual, who reports for all members of the household. Employer surveys are completed by an official of the responding establishment and generally are based on records. In the census, individuals report themselves in the oc cupation in which they work the most hours. Respon dents to the OES surveys are instructed to report em ployees performing more than one job in the one that requires the highest skill level; also, definitions that im ply a specific skill level for each occupation are listed on the questionnaire. In the census, the titles reported by respondents are grouped into categories which may in clude workers with greatly different skill levels; catego ries usually take the title of the most prominent occupation in that group. For example, the title “law yer” includes lawyers and law clerks which are separate titles in the OES survey.7 □ tional Employment Statistics ( o e s ) Survey to collect data on occupational staffing patterns of industries more frequently. These data are obtained directly from establishments by mail survey. The survey is a FederalState cooperative program in which data are collected by State employment security agencies according to standards, procedures, and methods developed by 'the BLS. All nonagricultural industries, except private households, are covered in this survey on a 3-year cycle — manufacturing industries during the first year, and roughly half of nonmanufacturing industries in each of the next 2 years. Each industry is therefore surveyed ev ery 3 years. Survey questionnaires are tailored to an in dustry’s occupational structure. For example, the iron and steel industry questionnaire does not list barber as an occupation. Each questionnaire is limited to a maxi mum of 200 occupations; residual categories, such as “other professional and technical workers’’ are included so that an establishment can list its total employment. Employers are requested to identify large or emerging occupations in their establishments, which are not found on the questionnaire. Because data for all States were not available until the late 1970’s, it was not until 1980 that national ma trix for 1978 based on OES survey data could be devel oped. Occupational staffing patterns for the 1978 matrix were derived from the OES surveys of manufacturing in dustries in 1977; nonmanufacturing, except trade and regulated industries in 1978; and trade and regulated in dustries in 1979. Occupational employment estimates for 1978 were obtained by applying the occupational staffing pattern for each industry to the total wage-andsalary employment in that industry in 1978. The Bu reau’s Current Employment Survey ( c e s ) was the source of the industry totals. As a result of using the OES survey as the data base, the number of detailed in dustries and occupations in the Bureau’s industry-occu pation matrix will increase substantially. Differences among surveys Wage-and-salary employment totals for agricultural and private household industries were obtained from the Current Population Survey ( c p s ) because the OES survey and the CES do not cover employment in these industries. Occupational distributions of employment in these industries were developed from the census-based matrix; detailed occupations in the census-based matrix were reclassified in the OES occupational framework. Because an establishment may have workers in more occupations than the 200 listed on the questionnaire for the employer’s industry, the OES surveys do not obtain complete employment counts for, all occupations. In general, if survey data accounted for less than an esti 46 FOOTNOTES 1This article is one in a series presenting data from the ongoing projections program. The first article reported on new labor force pro jections (see Howard N. Fullerton, Jr„ “The 1995 labor force: a first look”, Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21). The sec ond article, appearing in this issue of the Review, gives new macroeco nomic projections for 1985 and 1990. The third article, also in this issue, describes projections of industry output and industry employ ment for 1985 and 1990. 2For the most recent census-based matrix, see George T. Silvestri, The National Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix, 1970, 1978, and Projected 1990, Bulletin 2086 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1981). ’ Statistics on employment in this article are based on a count of jobs, as used in the Bureau’s Current Employment Surveys and Occu pational Employment Statistics Surveys, rather than a count of per sons as used in the Current Population Surveys and decennial census. Because one worker may hold more than one job, employment on a “jobs” concept is greater than employment on a “persons” concept. Differences between these surveys are discussed in more detail else where in this article. Employment in this article is slighly different than that in the other ones in this issue. Self-employed and unpaid family workers by indus try are estimated by different methods. In addition, government em ployment in this article is based in the BLS establishment survey. In the other articles, government employment is based on National In come Accounts data from the Department of Commerce. 4 Later in 1981, employment projections for occupations with baseyear employment of 5,000 or more will be published in the industryoccupation matrix. 5An important limitation should be kept in mind when evaluating occupational employment projections that were generated by applying the industry-occupational matrix to the various industry projections. The occupational projections assume that all industries will have an average occupational composition regardless of the changes that occur in industry employment under the different scenarios. However, occu pational composition of an increase or decrease in an industry’s total employment may differ from the average occupational composition of the industry as a result of changes in product mix, capacity utiliza tion, and other factors. For example, differences in the assumptions embodied in the various scenarios can produce shifts in an industry’s product mix which increase employment requirements in some occu pations, while reducing requirements in others. 6 For a detailed description of how the occupational employment projections were developed, see Richard P. Oliver, Methodology for Labor Force, Industry and Occupational Employment Projections to 1990, a BLS report to be published later this year. 7For more information on the differences between the OES surveybased matrix and the census-based matrix, write to the Bureau of La bor Statistics, Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projec tions, Division of Occupational Outlook, Washington, D.C. 20212. 47 The 1995 labor force: a first look All three projections high, middle, and low indicate that women will account for two-thirds of the growth, most of which will occur in the prime working-age group; the black labor force will grow twice as fast as the white force — — H oward N F ullerton , Jr . creases in the participation of women and with the diver gence in male participation between races continuing.2 In the intermediate scenario, the labor force is pro jected to reach 115 million by 1985 and 128 million by 1995. (See table 1.) This represents 1.8 percent growth per year from 1979 to 1985 and 1.0 percent per year from 1985 to 1995. (See table 2.) Under this scenario, labor force rates of women age 20 to 44 are assumed to rise at an increasing rate until 1983. For most age groups of men, participation is projected to decline, al though not as fast as it did in the 1970’s. Overall par ticipation is assumed to increase more rapidly for whites than for blacks.3 In the high-growth scenario, the labor force is pro jected to grow 2.3 percent per year between 1979 and 1985 and 1.1 percent per year between 1985 and 1995. Under this scenario, about 135 million persons would be in the labor force in 1995. The participation rates for women age 16 to 19 and 45 to 64 are projected to grow at an increasing rate until 1985, before tapering off in the 1990’s. The rates for white men age 25 to 39 are as sumed to rise, reversing a long-term drop since 1960. By the end of the century, the labor force participation ratio of black men are projected to converge to the ra tio of white men. (With the higher rate of black involve ment in the Armed Forces and higher rates of institutionalization, the civilian labor force rates for By the mid-1980’s, persons in the labor force are pro jected to exceed those not in the labor force—including babies. This development reflects the changing age com position of the population which, in turn, is caused by the swings in births over the past 50 years. By 1995, this labor force would have a greater proportion of women and minorities; indeed, about two-thirds of the labor force growth would be generated by women, re flecting their continued labor force participation.1 The projections discussed in this article are part of a continuing program of economic projections made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As part of this program, every 2 years labor force projections are prepared, followed by projections of the economy, of employment by industry, of demand, and ultimately, of occupations by industry. The Bureau of Labor Statistics developed three labor force growth scenarios: a high-growth projection, which assumes rapid growth in the labor force participation of women in the 1980’s and the convergence of participa tion between black men and white men under age 65; a middle-growth scenario, with the expansion coming from women; and a low-growth path with only moderate inHoward N Fullerton, Jr., is a demographic statistician in the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 48 by the more populous baby-boom generation; the growth of the older population will be slowed. More than two-thirds of the 1980-95 labor force growth would come from women. (These projections do not yield estimates of new entrants and of re-entrants.) Women are expected to compose an additional 4 per cent of the labor force in 1995 under each of the three patterns of labor force growth. The increase in the pro portion of employed women in the prime working-age group would more than offset the decreasing propor tions of younger and older working women. On the oth er hand, the proportion of men in the labor force is assumed to be slightly less. Under the medium- and low-growth scenarios, the activity rates of men age 25 and over is expected to drop. Under the high-growth path, the rates for men age 40 to 64 are projected to re main constant and the rates for men age 25 to 39 will increase slightly. Rates for men and women under age 25 are moving up, but those for women are increasing faster. In the older age groups, where rates for men and women are dropping, those for men are dropping faster. Hence, women’s increasing share of the labor force re flects their own greater activity as well as the decrease in male participation. Until recently, labor force participation has been dropping for most age groups of black men, while their population has been increasing at a higher rate than that of whites. As the black population continues to grow at a faster rate, the black labor force also can be expected to grow at a faster rate. Thus, under all three projections, the black labor force is growing considera bly faster—at about twice the rate of whites. That the relatively rapid growth is related to population growth may be seen by comparing possible participation rates. Under middle and low scenarios, the overall rate is low er for blacks than for whites. Under the high-growth scenario, which assumes convergence of male total par ticipation ratios for blacks and whites, black civilian la- some age groups of black men would exceed those of white men.) However, because blacks make up about 12 percent of -the labor force, this assumption of the highgrowth scenario does not have a significant impact on the level of the overall labor force. In the low-growth scenario, the labor force is project ed to grow 1.1 percent a year from 1979 to 1985 and 0.8 percent from 1985 to 1995. By 1995, the civilian la bor force is projected to be only 122 million. The par ticipation rates of women age 20 to 44 are projected to rise over the entire period, but at a decreasing rate. For other age groups of women, participation is assumed to increase at a slower rate than in the middle-growth path, reflecting a longer ran experience than that in the 1970’s. For men, labor force activity is projected to de crease more rapidly than in the middle-growth scenario, leading to an increased disparity in rates by race. W©mem provide mostt growth As a base for these projections, we used the popula tion projections prepared by the Bureau of the Census. Under the Series II (middle) projection, the population 16 and oldef grows steadily through 1995, although the decrease in births (which began around 1960) means slower rates of growth during the remainder of this cen tury.4 (See table 3.) Because of reduced birth rates dur ing the 1930’s and the 1970’s and the baby boom of the 1950’s, the age composition of the population and, thus, of the labor force will change significantly during the next 15 years.5 In the past, much of the increase in the labor force has been generated by the entrance of youth and wom en. The number of new labor force entrants could drop in the future because there will be fewer youths. This means that the labor force would consist of more expe rienced workers than now. By 1985, the small number of persons bom during the Great Depression will begin to leave the prime working ages. They will be replaced TsM® 1. Civilian tabor tore® based on thr®® dofferent growth paths to 19@5 P articipation rate Annual perce n t c h a n g e 1 A ctual (in m illions) P ro je cte d (in m G row th path 1885 1175 1878 Total: ......................... Middle g ro w th ............... High growth ................. Low g ro w th .................... 74.5 92.6 102.9 Men: ....................................... Middle growth . . . . . . . High growth ................. Low g ro w th .................... 48.3 W o m en :................................... Middle g ro w th ............... High growth ................. Low g ro w th .................... 26.2 55.6 37.0 1855 1880 1885 115.0 118.3 111.7 122.4 128.1 117.4 127.5 134.7 121.7 63.6 64.8 62.5 65.9 68.2 63.9 67.6 70.8 64.9 51.4 53.4 49.2 56.5 59.9 53.5 59.9 63.9 56.8 1835 to 1875 1875 to 1178 2.2 2.7 1.4 59.5 1880 to 1885 1.9 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.0 .7 1.1 1.4 .8 .7 1.0 .4 .5 .8 .3 2.9 3.5 2.1 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.2 49 P rojected A ctual 1855 1875 1878 58.9 61.2 63.7 80.7 4.1 ’ Compounded continuously. 1835 to 1880 1.7 3.5 43.4 1878 to 1855 39.3 77.9 46.3 1885 1880 1885 66.5 68.4 64.6 67.9 71.1 65.2 68.6 72.4 65.9 77.7 79.2 76.3 77.2 79.9 74.9 76.8 80.5 73.7 56.5 58.7 54.1 59.6 63.2 56.4 61.2 65.2 57.9 77.9 51.0 Tab!© 2. Annual rate o f grow th off the civilian labor fo rce by sex, age, and race, 1@75-79 and projected to 1995 [In percent] P rojected Actual M iddle g ro w th Age, ses, and race 1975 to 1979 Low g ro w th H igh g ro w th 1979 to 1985 1985 to 1990 1990 to 1995 1979 to 1985 1985 to 1990 1980 to 1995 1979 to 1985 1935 to 1990 1890 to 1995 Total, age 16 and o v e r ................................... 2.67 1.86 1.25 .83 2.34 1.61 1.01 1.37 .99 .72 Men ................................................................................. 16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 16 to 19 ........................................................... 20 to 24 ........................................................... 25 to 5 4 ................................................................... 25 to 34 ........................................................... 35 to 44 ........................................................... 45 to 54 ........................................................... 55 and over ........................................................... 55 to 64 ........................................................... 65 and over ...................................................... 1.70 3.15 1.39 2.72 1.83 3.32 2.45 -.91 -.91 .56 -6 .9 6 1.11 -1 .4 7 -2 .2 5 - .0 6 2.06 2.18 3.88 -.4 1 .78 -.0 4 4.47 .70 -2 .1 7 -.7 9 -2 .9 4 1.88 .52 3.18 2.37 -1 .2 0 -1 .4 3 -.3 3 .52 -1 .1 6 -.3 4 -1 .6 6 1.10 -1 .5 9 1.87 4.03 -.5 7 -.4 4 -1 .0 4 1.43 -1.11 -1 .7 6 .22 2.24 2.43 4.00 -.2 8 1.69 .58 6.51 1.01 -1 .6 7 - .1 4 -2 .5 3 2.04 .75 3.28 2.50 - .2 6 -.8 3 1.64 .76 - .6 3 .28 -1.21 1.23 -1 .4 0 1.97 4.14 .14 .00 .58 .80 -1 .6 7 -2.4 1 -.2 8 1.88 2.01 3.72 -.6 3 -.2 7 -.9 9 2.98 .45 -2 .2 6 - .8 7 -3 .0 4 1.72 .35 3.03 2.19 -2 .3 0 -2 .3 7 -2.01 .32 -1 .1 9 - .3 8 -1 .6 9 .96 -1 .7 4 1.75 3.88 -1 .4 8 -1 .1 5 -2 .8 0 W o m e n ............................................................................. 16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 16 to 19 ........................................................... 20 to 24 ........................................................... 25 to 5 4 ................................................................... 25 to 34 ........................................................... 35 to 44 ........................................................... 45 to 54 ........................................................... 55 and over ........................................................... 55 to 64 ........................................................... 65 and over ...................................................... 4.06 3.30 2.63 3.73 4.88 7.19 5.78 .72 2.05 1.91 2.60 2.85 .49 -1 .1 6 1.48 4.28 4.98 6.12 .52 .45 .44 .47 1.91 - .9 0 .08 -1 .4 6 3.24 2.06 4.64 3.28 -.6 1 -.9 8 .78 1.18 -.2 1 .30 -.5 2 1.73 -.7 3 2.69 4.56 .01 -.3 6 3.52 1.02 -.8 4 2.12 5.05 6.03 6.84 .80 .86 .83 1.02 2.33 -.2 4 .48 -.6 5 3.56 2.38 5.01 3.59 -.1 5 -.6 3 1.62 1.29 -.2 8 .73 -.8 8 1.86 -.6 0 2.85 4.75 .30 .29 .33 2.13 -.0 4 -1 .5 5 .85 3.42 3.82 5.35 .12 .07 .13 -.1 3 1.67 -1 .2 0 -.2 3 -1 .7 6 3.04 1.93 4.41 2.96 -.8 5 -1 .2 6 .72 1.18 - .4 6 .10 -.8 1 1.83 - .5 5 2.84 4.31 - .1 0 - .0 4 - .3 0 Total, age 16 and o v e r .................................. 2.49 1.71 1.08 .63 2.10 1.37 .76 1.22 .84 .57 Men .................................................................................. 16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 25 to 5 4 ......................................................... 55 and over ........................................................... W o m e n ............................................................................. 16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 25 to 5 4 ................................................................... 55 and over ........................................................... 1.56 2.07 1.68 .39 3.89 3.11 4.74 1.94 .96 -.9 7 1.88 -.2 2 2.72 .36 4.19 .28 .55 -2 .2 8 1.72 -1 .3 2 1.74 -1 .0 7 3.11 -.8 8 .36 -1 .2 5 .93 -.6 4 .96 -.5 7 1.55 - .1 6 1.20 -.9 1 2.04 .60 3.32 .68 4.92 .68 .77 -2 .1 4 1.84 -.4 7 2.11 -.7 2 3.44 -.4 3 .52 -1 .0 9 1.01 -.0 1 1.04 -.7 8 1.67 .09 .68 -1 .1 6 1.75 -1.31 1.97 - .1 6 3.29 -.0 8 .32 -2 .3 4 1.59 -2 .4 7 1.49 -1 .3 8 2.91 -1 .1 2 .19 -1 .2 6 .82 -1 .6 0 1.02 - .5 9 1.68 -.2 9 Total, age 16 and o v e r ................................... 3.97 2.97 2.39 2.02 4.01 3.14 2.46 2.42 2.05 1.65 Men ................................................................................. 16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 25 to 5 4 ................................................................... 55 and o v e r ........................................................... W o m e n ............................................................................. 16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 25 to 5 4 ................................................................... 55 and o v e r ........................................................... 2.95 3.29 3.13 1.52 5.15 4.67 5.11 2.94 2.27 - .0 7 3.42 .46 3.71 1.35 4.85 1.77 1.85 -1.41 3.08 -.0 7 2.92 .13 3.96 1.25 1.58 -.5 6 2.29 .07 2.44 1.90 2.73 1.18 3.26 2.33 3.82 2.11 4.81 3.19 5.79 2.27 2.71 1.06 3.45 1.57 3.56 2.37 4.18 1.79 2.32 1.66 10.35 1.49 2.58 2.11 2.84 1.62 1.80 - .3 2 2.91 - .1 8 3.09 .72 4.20 133 1.40 -1 .6 5 2.62 -.1 9 2.70 -.1 1 3.74 1.03 1.20 - .7 6 1.91 -1 .0 2 2.08 .28 2.63 1.14 .11 WHITE B U C K AND OTHER N ote : Compounded continuously. slower rate. Further, during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, women of the baby-boom generation will pass their prime childbearing ages. bor force participation exceeds that of whites by 1995. (This reflects, for black women, an expected continua tion of higher participation and, for black men, higher rates of institutionalization and of participation in the Armed Forces.) Under the middle and low scenarios, the racial gap in male participation rates is projected to approximately double from the percentage point differ ence in 1979. The above description of population and labor force changes suggests that the discussion of future labor force trends should focus on two periods, 1979 to 1985, and 1985 to 1995. During 1979-85, the teenage and young adult population will decline in absolute numbers and the prime-age population will grow sharply. During 1985-95, the older adult population will grow at a The changing labor force, 1979-85 A look back to 1975 will help our gaze forward to 1985. In 1975, the total fertility rate was 1.8 children per woman; for 1985, the Census Bureau’s Series II population projection is for 2.0 children per woman.6 Because the total fertility rate adjusts for changing age composition, there would be an increase in births from the levels of the 1970’s. This increase in fertility rates, coupled with the increase in the labor force participa tion of women, means there would be more working mothers. 50 ing of the baby-boom cohort, the numbers of those age 16 to 24 almost certainly will decline so that, despite a projected increase in their labor force participation rates, the level of the youth labor force would fall. (Of course, the drop would not be as sharp as that for the population component.) The composition of the younger population will also be affected by the difference in fertility between blacks and whites. Although fertility for both groups has been falling, black fertility rates remain higher. As a conse quence, the black population is younger (the median age is lower), and the youth population will have a greater proportion of blacks than will the population age 25 and over. At the same time, black youths have lower labor force participation than do their white counterparts, so if other things remained the same, the In 1975, 46 percent of all women were in the labor force. By 1985, this is projected to increase to 56.4 per cent under the middle-growth scenario. (See tables 4 and 5.) This dramatic increase reflects both the move ment of women of the baby-boom generation into the prime working-age group and the projection of in creased activity rates. In 1975, women represented 40 percent of the labor force— by 1985 they would repre sent about 45 percent. The percents do not vary much across scenarios. Slow growth for youths. Since the early 1960’s, the youth population (age 16 to 24) has been growing at a faster rate than has the older population. However, 20 years have passed since the years of peak births, and the size of this age group has begun to fall. Thus, with the ag Table 3. Civilian noninstitutional population, by age, s@x, and race, 1 9 7 5 -7 9 and p ro je c te d to 1995 [Numbers in thousands] A ctual population P rojected population Net change Age, sett, and race 107S 107© 1685 1620 IS IS Annual p erce n t change1 1075 1070 1085 1080 1075 1070 10S5 1000 1070 1085 1080 1005 117© m s 1080 1085 to to to to to to to to Total, 16 and o v e r .......... Men ................................................. 16 to 2 4 .................................. 16 to 19 ........................... 20 to 24 ........................... 25 to 5 4 ................................... 25 to 34 ........................... 35 to 44 ........................... 45 to 54 ........................... 55 and over ........................... 55 to 64 ........................... 65 and o v e r ...................... 151,268 71,403 16,793 8,046 8,747 36,617 14,537 10,756 11,324 17,994 9,215 8,779 161,532 76,449 17,669 8,155 9,514 39,381 16,552 11,838 10,991 19,399 9,782 9,617 172,850 81,889 16,364 6,920 9,444 44,707 18,988 14,947 10,772 20,818 10,217 10,601 180,129 85,285 14,695 6,521 8,174 49,224 19,574 17,510 12,140 21,366 9,819 11,547 186,034 88,031 13,983 6,403 7,580 52,190 18,122 19,236 14,832 21,858 9,738 12,120 10,264 5,046 876 109 767 2,764 2,015 1,082 -3 3 3 1,405 567 838 11,318 5,440 -1 ,3 0 5 -1 ,2 3 5 -7 0 5,326 2,436 3,109 -2 1 9 1,419 435 984 7,279 3,396 -1 ,6 6 9 -3 9 9 -1 ,2 7 0 4,517 586 2,563 1,368 548 -3 9 8 946 5,905 2,746 -7 1 2 -1 1 8 -5 9 4 2,966 -1 ,4 5 2 1,726 2,692 492 -8 1 573 1.65 1.72 1.28 .34 2.21 1.84 3.30 2.43 - .7 4 1.90 1.50 2.31 1.14 1.15 -1 .2 7 -2 .7 0 -.1 2 2.14 2.31 3.98 - .3 3 1.18 .73 1.64 0.83 .82 -2 .1 3 -1 .1 8 -2 .8 5 1.94 .61 3.22 2.42 .52 -.7 9 1.72 0.65 .64 - .9 9 - .3 5 -1 .5 0 1.18 -1 .5 3 1.90 4.09 .46 - .8 2 .97 W o m e n ............................................. 16 to 2 4 ................................... 16 to 19 ........................... 20 to 24 ........................... 25 to 5 4 ................................... 25 to 34 ........................... 35 to 44 ........................... 45 to 54 ........................... 55 and o v e r ........................... 55 to 64 ........................... 65 and o v e r ...................... 79,865 17,686 8,215 9,471 39,326 15,488 11,632 12,206 22,853 10,347 12,506 85,083 18,397 8,224 10,173 42,031 17,499 12,780 11,752 24,656 10,930 13,726 90,981 17,012 6,981 10,031 47,318 19,908 15,938 11,474 26,631 11,293 15,338 94,844 15,322 6,560 8,762 52,022 20,533 18,553 12,936 27,500 10,736 16,764 98,003 14,560 6,421 8,139 55,156 19,071 20,384 15,701 28,287 10,637 17,650 5,218 711 9 702 2,705 2,011 1,148 -4 5 4 1,803 583 1,220 5,878 -1 ,3 8 5 -1 ,2 4 3 -1 4 2 5,287 2,407 3,158 -2 7 8 1,975 363 1,612 3,883 -1 ,6 9 0 -4 2 1 -1 ,2 6 9 4,704 627 2,615 1,462 869 -5 5 7 1,426 3,159 -7 6 2 -1 3 9 -6 2 3 3,134 -1 ,4 6 2 1,831 2,765 787 -9 9 886 1.59 .99 .03 1.80 1.68 3.14 2.38 - .9 4 1.92 1.38 2.35 1.12 -1 .3 0 -2 .6 9 - .2 3 1.99 2.17 3.75 - .4 0 1.29 .55 1.87 0.84 -2 .0 7 -1 .2 4 -2 .6 7 1.91 .62 3.06 2.43 .64 -1.0 1 1.79 0.66 -1 .0 2 - .4 3 -1 .4 6 1.18 -1 .4 7 1.92 3.95 .71 - .1 9 1.01 Total, 16 and o v e r .......... Men ................................................. 16 to 2 4 .................................. 25 to 5 4 ................................... 55 and o v e r ........................... 133,501 63,385 14,526 32,569 16,291 141,614 67,493 15,175 34,816 17,501 150,085 71,632 13,796 39,151 18,685 155,029 73,982 12,154 42,788 19,040 158,791 75,770 11,418 45,002 19,350 8,113 4,108 649 2,247 1,210 8,471 4,139 -1 ,3 7 9 4,335 1,184 4,944 2,350 -1 ,6 4 5 3,637 355 3,762 1,788 -7 3 3 2,214 310 1.49 1.58 1.10 1.68 1.81 .97 1.00 -1 .5 8 1.98 1.10 .65 .65 -2 .5 0 1.79 .38 .48 .48 -1 .2 4 1.01 .32 W o m e n ............................................. 16 to 2 4 ................................... 25 to 5 4 .................................. 55 and over ........................... 70,115 15,068 34,315 20,733 74,120 15,522 36,339 22,257 78,453 14,118 40,457 23,878 81,047 12,482 44,115 24,450 83,021 11,724 46,352 24,945 4,005 454 2,024 1,524 4,333 -1 ,4 0 4 4,118 1,621 2,594 -1 ,6 3 6 3,658 572 1,974 -7 5 8 2,237 495 1.48 .74 1.44 1.79 .95 -1 .5 7 1.81 1.18 .65 -2 .4 3 1.75 .47 .48 -1 .2 5 .99 .40 Total, 16 and o v e r .......... 17,768 19,918 22,765 25,100 27,243 2,150 2,847 2,335 2,143 2.90 2.25 1.97 1.65 Men ................................................. 16 to 2 4 .................................. 25 to 5 4 ................................... 55 and o v e r ........................... 8,018 2,267 4,048 1,703 8,955 2,493 4,564 1,897 10,257 2,568 5,556 2,133 11,303 2,541 6,436 2,326 12,261 2,565 7,188 2,508 937 226 516 194 1,302 75 992 236 1,042 -2 7 880 193 958 24 752 182 2.80 2.40 3.04 2.73 2.29 .50 3.33 1.97 1.96 - .2 9 2.98 1.75 1.64 .19 2.23 1.52 W o m e n ............................................ 16 to 2 4 .................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................. 55 and o v e r ........................... 9,750 £ 6T 85,011 2,120 10,963 2,873 5,691 2,399 12,508 289rT 6,861 2,753 13,797 2,840 7,907 3,050 14,982 2,836 8,804 3,342 1,213 255 680 279 1,545 21 1,170 354 1,289 -5 4 1,046 297 1 185 -4 897 292 2.97 2.36 3.23 3.14 2.22 .12 3.17 2.32 1.98 - .3 8 2.88 2.07 1.66 - .0 3 2.17 1.85 WHITE BLACK AND OTHER 'Compounded continuously. 51 Tab8® 4. Civilian labor fo rce participation rate by sex, age, and race, 1 9 7 5 -7 9 and projected to 1995 [In percent] A ctual P rojected Sax, age, end race m iddle g ro w th 1975 1979 1935 1990 H igh g ro w th 1995 1985 1SS0 Low g ro w th 1S95 1S85 1«®0 1S95 Total, age 16 and o v e r .......... 61.2 63.7 66.5 67.9 68.6 68.4 71.1 72.4 64.6 65.2 65.4 Men ......................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 16 to 19 ................................... 20 to 24 .................................. 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 25 to 34 .................................. 35 to 44 .................................. 45 to 54 .................................. 55 and o v e r ................................... 55 to 64 .................................. 65 and o v e r .............................. 779 72.4 59.2 84.6 94.4 95.3 95.7 92.1 49.5 75.8 21.7 77.9 75.1 61.7 86.6 94.4 95.4 95.8 91.4 465 73.0 20.0 77.7 76.9 63.4 86.9 94.0 94.7 95.4 91.0 43.1 69.7 17.5 77.2 76.8 64.7 86.4 93.7 94.3 95.2 90.8 39.6 67.5 15.8 76.8 76.1 64.7 85.7 93.4 94.0 95.1 90.6 37.6 66.5 14.3 79.2 78.7 65.3 88.4 95.0 96.1 98.0 91.7 45.5 72.4 19.7 79.9 80.5 68.8 89.8 95.5 96.7 96.4 92.1 43.8 72.2 19.6 80.5 82.0 71.7 91.2 95.7 97.4 96.7 92.4 43.1 72.8 19.2 76.3 76.1 62.8 85.8 93.0 93.7 94.4 89.8 40.5 65.8 16.1 74.9 75.5 63.8 84.9 92.0 92.5 93.6 88.8 35.1 60.7 13.3 73.7 74.7 63.7 84.1 91.0 91.5 93.0 87.9 31.8 57.8 11.0 W o m e n .................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 16 to 19 .................................. 20 to 24 ................................... 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 25 to 34 .................................. 35 to 44 .................................. 45 to 54 .................................. 55 and over ................................... 55 to 64 .................................. 65 and o v e r .............................. 46.3 5 72 49.2 64.1 55.0 54.6 55.8 54.6 23.1 41.0 8.3 51.0 62.6 54.5 69.1 62.2 63.8 63.6 58.4 23.2 41.9 8.3 56.5 69.7 59.8 76.5 71.1 75.1 72.9 61.7 22.1 41.6 7.7 59.6 73.9 63.9 81.4 75.9 80.7 78.6 64.3 20.7 41.7 7.3 61.2 77.0 66.3 85.3 78.0 83.7 81.7 66.2 20.2 42.3 6.8 58.7 71.9 61.0 79.5 74.3 79.7 75.9 62.7 22.6 42.6 7.9 63.2 78.9 66.5 88.1 80.5 86.9 83.2 66.4 21.7 43.4 7.9 65.2 81.8 70.5 90.7 83.3 90.8 87.2 69.0 21.5 44.5 7.6 54.1 67.5 58.4 73.8 67.7 70.3 69.8 60.2 21.6 40.9 7.4 56.4 70.5 61.4 77.3 71.5 75.0 74.4 61.8 20.0 40.3 7.0 57.9 72.5 63.1 79.8 73.9 78.5 77.9 62.9 19.4 40.6 6.6 Total, age 16 and o v e r .......... 61.5 64.0 66.8 68.3 68.8 68.4 70.9 71.9 65.0 65.6 65.9 Men ........................................................ 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 55 and o v e r ................................... W o m e n .................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 55 and o v e r ................................... 78.7 74.3 95.1 49.8 45.9 59.0 54.2 22.8 78.6 77.2 95.1 47.1 50.6 64.8 61.6 22.9 78.5 80.1 94.6 43.6 56.2 72.8 70.8 21.7 78.1 81.0 94.3 40.0 59.3 78.0 75.7 20.3 77.7 80.9 93.9 38.1 60.7 80.6 77.8 19.7 79.6 80.4 95.5 45.8 58.2 74.2 73.8 22.2 80.1 81.9 95.7 43.9 62.5 80.9 80.2 21.2 80.3 82.5 95.7 43.1 64.3 82.8 83.0 20.9 77.2 79.2 93.8 40.8 53.8 70.5 67.2 21.2 76.0 79.8 93.0 35.3 56.1 74.4 71.2 19.6 74.9 79.7 92.1 32.1 57.6 76.9 73.6 18.9 Total, age 16 and o v e r .......... 59.3 61.8 64.4 65.8 67.0 68.5 72.5 75.4 62.4 62.7 62.7 Men ......................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 55 and over ................................... W o m e n .................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 55 and over .................................. 71.5 60.1 89.0 45.1 49.2 46.4 60.2 26.4 71.9 62.3 89.3 43.0 53.5 50.8 66.3 26.2 71.9 60.2 89.8 39.3 58.3 54.7 73.1 25.4 71.5 56.6 90.2 35.9 61.1 56.1 77.0 24.4 71.3 54.5 90.5 33.5 63.5 61.8 79.2 23.6 76.2 69.4 91.8 43.4 62.2 60.9 77.1 26.2 79.0 74.0 94.0 43.0 67.1 69.8 82.1 25.8 81.7 79.6 96.0 42.9 70.3 69.9 59.3 87.1 37.8 56.3 52.7 70.4 24.7 68.0 55.1 85.6 33.5 58.3 53.4 73.5 23.5 66.6 52.5 84.3 30.3 59.5 54.2 75.2 22.7 WHITE S U C K AND OTHER growth of the youth labor force would be slower. (See table 6.) The number of black youths should increase slightly while the number of whites should drop. Only black young men had lessening labor force participation during the 1970’s. Under the middle-growth projection, this drop is assumed to continue, although at a decreasing rate. The effects of greater labor force participation by black women and a proportionately larger youth popula tion would offset the decline in male participation, and black youths would constitute the same proportion of the labor force in 1985 as at present. Under both the middleand high-growth projections, the black youth labor force would be half men and half women. In the high-growth scenario, black youths represent ah even greater propor tion of the labor force in 1985; the more pessimistic lowgrowth pattern yields a lower proportion. r is 90.8 25.5 Prime-age labor force. The prime-age workers (25 to 54 years) would be the fastest growing component of the labor force under each of the growth paths. The follow ing tabulation shows annual growth rates by major age group and race, 1975-79, and projected growth for 1979-85: 1975- 79 Y o u t h ............................. Prime ............................. Older ............................. White ............................. Black and other ........... ____ 3.2 ____ 3.0 ...................... 2 .... 2.6 .... 4.0 1979-85 -0 .6 3.0 .7 1.7 3.0 In each scenario, the prime-age labor force of women would grow at a faster rate than that of men. Under the high projection, between 1975 and 1985, the female la 52 bor force is projected to grow at twice the male rate and at a pace faster than that experienced in the 1970’s. This is due to three factors: the movement of women of the baby-boom generation into this age group, a moder ate rise in fertility, and a continued growth in female la bor force participation. The high-growth scenario for women in this age group is an attempt to reflect the ac celeration in participation that was exhibited in the 1970’s. Under the high-growth scenario, prime-age men (par ticularly young men), are also expected to experience an increase in participation. Under the high-growth path, prime-age men would represent 78 percent of the total male labor force, a moderate increase from 1979. Under the middle-growth path, such trends would also be evi dent, although less significantly. For example, by 1985, prime-age male workers would represent only 75 per Table 5. cent of the male labor force. With the more pronounced drop anticipated under the low-growth scenario, the proportion of prime-age men would be less than in 1975, while their female counterparts would be more than 10 percentage points higher than in 1975. Older workers. Older people (age 55 and over) have the most on-the-job experience, although on average, they have the least formal education. From 1979 to 1985, older workers are expected to participate less intensively in the labor force. These projections do not indicate the extent of part-time labor force activity that this growing segment of the population might elect. Under the high-growth scenario, men age 55 to 64 are expected to have only a modest decrease in partici pation. This decrease, coupled with population growth, will result in an increase in their labor force. Under the Civilian labor fo rce by sex, age, and race, 1 9 7 5 -7 9 and projected to 1995 [Numbers in thousands] A ctual P rojected M iddle g ro w th S@k, age, and race 1975 1979 High g ro w th Low g ro w th 1985 1990 1995 1985 1990 1915 1985 1990 1695 Total, agfe 16 and over ___ 92,613 102,908 114,985 122,375 127,542 118,252 128,123 134,753 111,706 117,394 121,684 M e n ......................................................... 16 to 2 4 ....................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................. 25 to 5 4 ....................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................. 55 and over ................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................. 65 and o v e r ........................... 55,615 12,158 4,760 7,398 34,569 13,854 10,288 10,426 8,888 6,982 1,906 59,517 13,270 5,031 8,239 37,180 15,792 11,337 10,051 5,068 7,140 1,290 63,600 12,592 4,387 8,205 42,029 17,976 14,252 9,801 8,979 7,122 1,857 65,880 11,282 4,216 7,086 46,147 18,453 16,672 11,022 8,451 6,625 1,826 67,611 10,641 4,144 6,497 48,758 17,029 18,297 13,432 8,212 6,479 1,733 64,825 12,873 4,521 8,352 42,473 18,239 14,353 9,881 9,479 7,393 2,086 68,174 11,833 4,489 7,344 46,988 18,934 16,873 11,181 9,353 7,090 2,263 70,835 11,463 4,553 6,910 49,950 17,645 18,604 13,701 9,422 7,092 2,330 62,458 12,445 4,344 8,101 41,584 17,796 14,116 9,672 8,429 6,725 1,704 63,888 11,099 4,158 6,941 45,287 18,113 16,393 10,781 7,502 5,963 1,539 64,918 10,450 4,078 6,372 47,507 16,583 17,880 13,044 6,961 5,626 1,335 Women ................................................. 16 to 24 ....................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................. 25 to 54 ....................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................... 35 to 4 4 ................................... 45 to 5 4 ................................... 55 and over ................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................. 65 and o v e r ........................... 36,998 10,108 4,039 6,069 21,613 8,456 6,493 6,665 5,277 4,244 1,033 43,391 11,511 4,481 7,029 26,156 11,167 8,130 6,860 5,724 4,579 1,145 51,385 11,854 4,176 7,678 33,650 14,955 11,617 7,078 5,881 4,703 1,178 56,495 11,325 4,194 7,131 39,469 16,568 14,581 8,320 5,701 4,476 1,225 59,931 11,205 4,259 6,946 43,021 15,971 16,651 10,399 5,705 4,502 1,203 53,427 12,235 4,259 7,976 35,163 15,870 12,094 7,199 6,029 4,812 1,217 59,949 12,083 4,363 7,720 41,885 17,853 15,444 8,588 5,981 4,662 1,319 63,918 11,912 4,526 7,386 45,934 17,322 17,781 10,831 6,072 4,731 1,341 49,248 11,477 4,079 7,398 32,020 13,988 11,121 6,911 5,751 4,615 1,136 53,503 10,800 4,031 6,769 37,198 15,396 13,805 7,997 5,508 4,330 1,178 56,766 10,551 4,053 6,498 40,735 14,971 15,887 9,877 5,480 4,320 1,160 Total, age 16 and over . . . . 62,084 90,602 100,316 105,867 109,292 102,667 109,930 114,208 97,496 101,661 104,604 M e n ......................................................... 16 to 24 ........................................ 25 to 54 .'..................................... 55 and over ................................ Women .................................................. 16 to 24 ........................................ 25 to 54 ........................................ 55 and over ................................ 49,881 10,795 30,965 8,121 32,203 8,890 18,595 4,717 53,074 11,718 33,105 8,251 37,528 10,051 22,382 5,095 56,228 11,047 37,041 8,140 44,088 10,271 28,635 5,182 57,800 9,843 40,342 7,615 48,067 9,731 33,379 4,957 58,871 9,242 42,256 7,373 50,421 9,453 36,052 4,916 57,014 11,090 37,370 8,554 45,653 10,472 29,872 5,309 59,245 9,953 40,939 8,353 50,685 10,100 35,391 5,194 60,817 9,421 43,051 8,345 53,391 9,710 38,462 5,219 55,287 10,923 36,742 7,622 42,209 9,952 27,187 5,070 56,197 9,699 39,775 6,723 45,464 9,284 31,389 4,791 56,752 9,103 41,447 6,202 47,852 9,013 34,118 4,721 Total, age 16 and over . . . . 10,529 12,306 14,669 16,508 18,250 15,585 18,193 20,545 14,210 15,733 17,080 M e n ......................................................... 16 to 24 ........................................ 25 to 54 ........................................ 55 and over ................................ Women .................................................. 16 to 2 4 ........................................ 25 to 5 4 ........................................ 55 and over ................................ 5,734 1,363 3,602 768 4,795 1,216 3,018 560 6,443 1,552 4,075 816 5,863 1,460 3,774 629 7,372 1,545 4,988 839 7,297 1,583 5,015 699 8,080 1,439 5,805 836 8,428 1,594 6,090 744 8,740 1,399 6,502 839 9,510 1,752 6,969 789 7,811 1,783 5,103 925 7,774 1,763 5,291 720 8,929 1,880 6,049 1,000 9,264 1,983 6,494 787 10,018 2,042 6,899 1,077 10,527 2,202 7,472 853 7,171 1,522 4,842 807 7,039 1,525 4,833 681 7,691 1,400 5,512 799 8,042 1,516 5,809 717 8,166 1,347 6,060 759 8,914 1,538 6,617 759 WHITE iL A C K AND OTHER 53 under the high-growth pattern would young men age 20 to 24 have a greater participation rate than in 1979. By 1995, the youth labor force would be a smaller propor tion of the labor force than in either 1979 or 1985. other two scenarios, their participation is expected to drop more sharply, and the male labor force age 55 to 64 would actually decrease. Participation rates for wom en in this age group are expected to increase under both the moderate- and high-growth projections. The result would be an older labor force with proportionately more women. The scenarios in these projections for the age group 65 and over are the same for both sexes. For the high projection, recent legislation forbidding mandatory re tirement before age 70 is expected to hold participation constant. Under the moderate-growth scenario, the measured rate of decrease in participation is reduced somewhat, so that labor force activity drops at a slower rate than in the past. Under the low-growth projection, the measured declines in labor force participation are projected to continue. Prime-age workers. By 1995, more than 70 percent of the labor force would be in the prime working ages. For the middle- and high-growth scenarios, this is actually a lower proportion than in 1985. The projected growth for prime-age men is about the same under all three sce narios; consequently, even after the growth in female participation is taken into account, the prime-age labor force is still more stable over the scenarios than that off the younger and older age groups. (See table 6.) In the middle- and low-growth projections, it is assumed that the youth and the older labor force grow relatively slower than the prime-age labor force, so these scenar ios have a higher proportion of prime-age workers. However, the greatest number of prime-age workers would be attained under the high-growth pattern. Un der all projections, the labor force would have more women and more blacks than now: 47 percent of the la bor force would be women, and 14 to 15 percent of the labor force would be black. Following are selected an nual growth rates (in percent) of all persons in the la bor force, by major age group and race, 1965-79, and projected grbwth to 1995: An experienced labor force,, 1985-95 During 1985-95, the baby-boom generation will be in the prime working ages and the relatively small num ber of persons bom in the Great Depression will begin retiring, easing pressures on retirement systems. To put the 1995 projections in context, it is useful to look back to 1965, a time of the buildup of forces in Vietnam and a period of lower inflation. The fertility rate was 2.9 children per woman, well above the Census Bureau’s Series II projection of 2.1 for 1995.7 In fact, 1965 was the first year in which births were below 4 million—after 11 years of high birth rates. In 1965, 40 percent of all women, 34 percent of all married women, and 23 percent of mothers with children under age 6 were in the labor force. Although comparable projec tions of the labor force by marital and parental status were not made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 1995, more than half of all married women were al ready in the labor force by 1979, as were 45.2 percent of mothers with preschool children. Both groups (which, of course, overlap) are projected to supply much of the labor force growth in the 1990’s. 1965- 79 Youth........................ Prim e........................ Older ........................ W hite........................ Black and o th e r......... -0.9 2.3 - .2 1.2 2.5 Older workers. Under all scenarios, workers age 55 and older would continue to be a decreasing proportion of the workforce. The changes for the 25 years from 1970 are most dramatic in the low-growth projection—in 1995, older workers would constitute. about two-thirds the proportion of the labor force that they did in 1970. This drop reflects both their expected continued drop in participation and the increase in the numbers of persons in the prime working ages, when participation is highest. The drop in the proportions for the middleand high-growth paths is less extreme, from 14 percent in 1979 to around 11 percent in 1995. Youths. In 1965, youths were a relatively small propor tion of the labor force, 18 percent. By 1979, this num ber had climbed to 24.4 percent. The effects of changes in the composition of the labor force may be seen by looking at the median age of the labor force. In 1965, it was 40 years; by 1979, it had dropped 5 years, taking the effects of both greater retirement and the aging of the baby-boom generation into account; by 1995, the median age of the labor force is projected to be 37.5 years. Based on the Census Bureau’s Series II birth rate projection, the youth labor force would continue to de crease from 1985 to 1995, although a larger proportion of teenagers would participate in the labor force. Only ......... 3.9 ......... 2.2 ................... 4 ......... 2.3 ......... 2.8 1979-95 How the projections were revised The uncertainty of the projection process is indicated by the changes from the 1978 set.8 (See table 7.) The difference between the high and low in 1985 and 1990 is about the same as that in the 1978 projections; the cur rent middle projection is midway between the previous middle and high. Each scenario, high, middle, and low was revised upward— the low one the most, to almost 54 Table 3. Labor fo rce distribution by sex, age, and race, 1 9 7 5 -7 9 and projected to 1 9 9 5 [In percent] A ctual P rojected Sax, ega, and race M iddle g row th 1975 1979 Low g ro w th H igh g ro w th 1985 1990 1995 1985 1980 1995 1985 1990 1995 Total, age 16 and o v e r .......... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Men ......................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 16 to 19 .................................. 20 to 24 .................................. 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 25 to 34 ................................... 35 to 44 ................................... 45 to 54 .................................. 55 and O v e r.................................. 55 to 64 .................................. 65 and o v e r .............................. 60.0 13.1 5.1 7.9 37.3 14.9 11.1 11.2 9.5 7.5 2.0 57.8 13.3 4.8 8.0 36.1 15.3 11.0 9.7 8.3 6.9 1.3 55.3 10.9 3.8 7.1 36.5 15.6 12.3 8.5 7.8 6.1 1.6 53.8 9.2 3.4 5.7 37.7 15.0 13.6 9.0 6.9 5.4 1.4 53.0 8.3 3.2 5.0 38.2 13.3 14.3 10.5 6.4 5.0 1.3 54.8 10.8 3.8 7.0 35.9 15.4 12.1 8.3 8.0 6.2 1.7 53.2 9.2 3.5 5.7 36.6 14.7 13.1 8.7 7.3 5.5 1.7 52.5 8.5 3.3 5.1 37.0 13.0 13.8 10.1 6.9 5.2 1.7 55.9 11.1 3.8 7.2 37.2 15.9 12.6 8.6 7.5 6.0 1.5 54.4 9.4 3.5 5.9 38.5 15.4 13.9 9.1 6.3 5.0 1.3 53.3 8.5 3.3 5.2 39.0 13.6 14.6 10.7 5.7 4.6 1.0 W o m e n .................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 16 to 19 .................................. 20 to 24 .................................. 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 25 to 34 .................................. 35 to 44 .................................. 45 to 54 .................................. 55 and over .................................. 55 to 64 .................................. 65 and over ............................. 39.9 10.9 4.3 6.5 23.3 9.1 7.0 7.1 5.6 4.5 1.1 42.1 11.1 4.3 6.8 25.4 10.8 7.9 6.6 5.5 4.4 1.1 44.6 10.3 3.6 6.6 29.2 13.0 10.1 6.1 5.1 4.0 1.0 46.1 9.2 3.4 5.8 32.2 13.5 11.9 6.7 4.6 3.6 1.0 46.9 8.7 3.3 5.4 33.7 12.5 13.0 8.1 4.4 3.5 .9 45.1 10.3 3.6 6.7 29.7 13.4 10.2 6.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 46.7 9.4 3.4 6.0 32.6 13.9 12.0 6.7 4.6 3.6 1.0 47.4 8.8 3.3 5.4 34.0 12.8 13.1 8.0 4.5 3.5 .9 44.0 10.2 3.6 6.6 28.6 12.5 9.9 6.1 5.1 4.1 1.0 45.5 9.1 3.4 5.7 31.6 13.1 11.7 6.8 4.6 3.6 1.0 46.6 8.6 3.3 5.3 33.4 12.3 13.0 8.1 4.5 3.5 .9 WHITE 88.6 88.0 87.2 86.5 85.6 86.8 85.8 84.7 87.2 86.5 85.9 53.8 11.6 33.4 8.7 34.7 9.5 20.0 5.0 51.5 11.3 32.1 8.0 36.4 9.7 21.7 4.9 48.9 9.6 32.2 7.0 38.3 8.9 24.9 4.5 47.2 8.0 32:9 6.2 39.2 7.9 27.2 4.0 46.1 7.2 33.1 5.7 39.5 7.4 28.2 3.8 48.2 9.3 31.6 7.2 38.6 8.8 25.2 4.4 46.2 7.7 31.9 6.5 39.5 7.8 27.6 4.0 45.1 6.9 31.9 6.1 39.6 7.2 28.5 3.8 49.4 9.7 32.8 6.8 37.7 8.9 24.3 4.5 47.8 8.2 33.8 5.7 38.7 7.9 26.7 4.0 46.6 7.4 34.0 5.0 39.3 7.4 28.0 3.8 Total, age 16 and o v e r .......... 11.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 14.3 13.1 14.1 15.2 12.7 13.4 14.0 Men ......................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 55 and o v e r .................................. W o m e n .................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 55 and over ................................... 6.1 1.4 3.8 .8 5.1 1.3 3.3 .6 6.2 1.5 3.9 .7 5.6 1.4 3.6 .6 6.4 1.3 4.3 .7 6.3 1.3 4.3 .6 6.6 1.1 4.7 .6 6.8 1.3 4.9 .6 6.8 1.0 5.0 .6 7.4 1.3 5.4 .6 6.6 1.5 4.3 .7 6.5 1.4 4.4 .6 6.9 1.4 4.7 .7 7.2 1.5 5.0 .6 7.4 1.5 7.3 .7 7.8 1.6 5.5 .6 6.4 1.3 4.3 .7 6.3 1.3 4.3 .6 6.5 1.1 4.6 .6 6.8 1.2 4.9 .6 6.7 1.1 4.9 .6 7.3 1.2 5.4 .6 Total, age 16 and o v e r .......... Men ......................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 55 and over .................................. W o m e n .................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................... 25 to 5 4 .......................................... 55 and over .................................. . (SLACK AMD OTHER the level of the previous middle-growth path. The changes reflect the effects of two additional years of ob servations, as well as changes in the assumptions made for women age 20 to 44 mentioned earlier. They also re flect the general experience that it is more difficult to project an increasing phenomenon. In 1990, the projected number of women would be about 2.5 million higher under each scenario, but the proportion of the labor force in each major age group differs among scenarios. Under both the high and mid dle scenarios, the number of young women in the labor force would be smaller than in the previous projection, reflecting their slower participation growth. For women in the 20 to 44 age group, the 1978 projection included an adjustment to the high-growth scenario to reflect ac celerating participation rates; in the current projection, this assumption was formally introduced in both the middle- and high-growth scenarios. The differences between the two sets of projections are less uniform for men. The number of men in the la bor force is essentially unchanged in the high-growth scenario; in the low and middle scenarios the number of men is projected to increase. The Bureau of Labor Sta tistics typically revised downward the number of men in the labor force with each succeeding labor force projec tion (while increasing the number of women). These changes reflect the slowing or ending of the decline in male participation rates. For the high-growth scenario, it is assumed that male participation rates will either rise or at least hold constant. To summarize, for each scenario, the number of women expected to be in the labor force was revised upward by about the same amount. For men, the highgrowth projection was approximately the same as the 55 last projection, the middle-growth path was revised up ward slightly, and the low-growth path was revised up ward significantly. Possible consequences A number of questions could be asked about the possible consequences of the changes in the structure of the population and of the labor force in these projec tions. Would these changes affect the ability of society to maintain the responsibilities it has assumed, such as social security? Could the changing composition of the labor force make goals such as equal employment op portunity easier or more difficult to accomplish? Is there potential for changes in productivity? Will there be scarcities of certain kinds of workers? How would mi gration affect the composition of the labor force? Societal responsibilities. One of the implications of these projections is the change in the “economic dependency ratios” for both the high and middle projections. The economic dependency ratio is defined as all persons not in the labor force (including those under age 16) divid ed by the total in the labor force.9 This ratio should drop to below 100 nonworkers per 100 workers. Under the conditions of the middle-growth pattern, the depen Tabl® dency ratio would stabilize after 1990. Under the condi tions of the high-growth scenario, (which assumes higher participation), the dependency ratio drops signifi cantly; in fact, it shows no sign of leveling off in this century. Under the conditions of the low-growth projec tion, the dependency ratio would stabilize above the 100-nonworker-per-100-worker level, but well below historic levels. The following tabulation shows depen dency ratios for 1965-79 and projected ratios for the three scenarios, 1985-95: _______ 1965 1970 1975 1979 ................... ................... ................... ................... 1985 ................... 1990 ................... 1995 ................... Projected__________ Actual Middle 151.8 138.5 125.4 110.1 ... ... ... ... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 98.8 95.6 94.5 93.5 87.0 84.4 ... ... ... High Low 104.5 103.4 104.1 These favorable ratios are a characteristic of the age of the baby-boom cohort and of the numbers of projected births. A large labor force is combined with low births to give low economic dependency ratios. As the baby- 7. Comparison o f the current and previous projections fo r 1985 and 1990 [Numbers in thousands] 1985 1880 G row th path, sex, and age P re v io u s 1 C urrent D iffe re n c e 2 P re v io u s 1 C urrent D iffe re n c e 2 112,953 63,007 12,465 41,824 8,718 49,946 11,934 32,432 5,580 114,985 63,600 12,592 42,029 8,979 51,385 11,854 33,650 5,881 2,032 593 127 205 261 1,439 -8 0 1,218 301 119,366 65,115 11,156 45,845 8,114 54,251 11,225 37,713 5,313 122,375 65,880 11,282 46,147 8,451 56,495 11,325 39,469 5,701 3,039 765 126 302 337 2,244 100 1,756 388 117,005 65,013 12,882 42,533 9,598 51,992 12,510 33,596 5,886 118,252 64,825 12,873 42,473 9,479 53,427 12,235 35,163 6,029 1,247 -1 8 8 -9 -6 0 -1 1 9 1,435 -2 7 5 1,567 143 125,603 68,220 11,879 47,056 9,285 57,383 12,054 39,630 5,699 128,123 68,174 11,833 46,988 9,353 59,949 12,083 41,885 5,981 2,520 -4 6 -4 6 -6 8 68 2,566 29 2,256 282 108,900 61,169 12,134 41,219 7,816 47,731 11,315 31,220 5,196 111,706 62,458 12,445 41,584 8,429 49,248 11,477 32,020 5,751 2,808 1,289 311 365 613 1,517 162 800 555 113,521 62,472 10,744 44,844 6,884 51,049 10,375 35,942 4,732 117,394 63,888 11,099 45,287 7,502 53,506 10,800 37,198 5,508 3,873 1,416 355 443 618 2,457 425 1,256. 776 MIDDLE Total, age 16 and over ........................................................................ Men ...................................................................................................................... 16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................ 25 to 5 4 ....................................................................................................... 55 and o v e r ................................................................................................ W o m e n ................................................................................................................. 16 to 2 4 ....................................................................................................... 25 to 5 4 ....................................................................................................... 55 and o v e r ................................................................................................ HIGH Total, age 16 and over ....................................................................... Men ...................................................................................................................... 16 to 2 4 ....................................................................................................... 25 to 5 4 ........................................................................................................ 55 and over ................................................................................................ W o m e n ................................................................................................................. 16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................ 25 to 5 4 ....................................................................................................... 55 and o v e r ................................................................................................ LOW Total, age 16 and over ........................................................................ Men ....................................................................................................................... 16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................ 25 to 5 4 ........................................................................................................ 55 and o v e r ................................................................................................ W o m e n .................................................................................................................. 16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................ 25 to 5 4 ........................................................................................................ 55 and over ................................................................................................ 1The previous projections were published in Paul 6 . Flaim and Howard N Fullerton, Jr., '.‘Labor force projections to 1990: Three possible paths,” M onthly Labor R eview , pp. 2 5 -3 5 , December 1978. 2 A minus sign indicates that the current projection is lower than the previous projection. 56 boom cohort leaves the prime working ages (after 2015), the dependency ratios should rise again, although the higher mortality of older people will prevent it from reaching the levels of the 1960’s. Differences in the number of older people are a consequence of past fertili ty—not improvements in mortality— but if spectacular increases in longevity occur, this could change.10 Thus, the current difficulties of the social security system are not a result of the current age composition of the popu lation. This favorable age composition effect on social security almost certainly will reverse in the early part of the next century. Black-white differentials. One dilemma confronting labor force forecasters and policymakers concerned with em ployment and training programs has been the continued divergence of labor force participation between blacks and whites in the prime-age groups. As recently as the mid-1950’s, the rates for men were virtually the same; but since then, the participation rates for black men have dropped more rapidly than those for white men. The high-growth scenario projects a possible return to parity of their labor force rates. The extent to which black rates have to increase is a measure of the prob lems that have to be confronted. In numbers, about 1.3 million more black men would participate in the high than in the middle-growth path labor force. For wom en, the picture has been different; in 1979, the rate for prime-age black women was higher than that for their white counterparts (despite higher fertility among black women). Moreover, participation of women in both groups is increasing, although faster for whites. The differences in female participation reflect the greater family responsibilities of black women—more are single parents than are whites, although the number of such white women is increasing.11 The higher fertility of black women obviously translates into higher popula tion growth and then into higher labor force growth. Thus, the youth groups of the 1980’s and 1990’s will have a higher proportion of blacks. In the 1980’s and 1990’s, employers may have increasing difficulty finding young workers. The decline in the number of youths will be particularly important to the Armed Forces— the largest single employer of youths. Given the decrease in the youth labor force, those who employ unskilled workers may also experi ence difficulty— depending to some extent on the Na tion’s immigration policy. The growth of the prime-age labor force would exceed that of the overall labor force by 20 percent. Be cause this is the experienced component of the labor force, analysts who look for a shortage of skilled work ers must consider likely changes in the composition of the prime-age labor force. More than half (59 percent) of the growth is projected to be generated by women and 22 percent by blacks (black women are in both groups). Skilled and professional workers will have to come from these groups in greater numbers than in the past if there is not to be a shortage. In the U.S. labor market, there is a tradition of male occupations and of female occupations, and there has been little change in this pattern.14The growth in female participation has occurred largely in occupations tradi tionally held by women. What would happen if demand would no longer grow in those sectors? The argument has been presented that higher participation would be translated into greater continuity of work and, thus, into more capacity to retain skills and professional abil ities that diminish if not used. Given that much of the increase in female labor force activity will probably come from mothers, employers may have to review their personnel practices (such as provision of day care) to attract these workers.15 By 1995, the youngest of the baby-boom generation will be in their thirties. They may well face competition for career positions which may result in frustration for some and greater productivity for all. The older mem bers of the baby-boom generation will be in the pre retirement years and should be at the peak of their pro ductivity. Productivity. One question raised by these projections is the effect of a proportionally greater prime-age labor force on productivity. The proportion of prime-age workers will increase at least by 10 percentage points (with the low-growth projection having the greatest concentration in the prime ages). Analyses have cen tered on the relative size of the youth labor force (which will diminish) and on the likely impact this would have on productivity gains.12 The growing proportion of the prime-age labor force should have a favorable impact on productivity because of the greater continuity of par ticipation by women and because of the higher educa tional attainment of all age, sex, and ethnic compo nents.13 Immigration. Along with growth in the native adult population and increased labor force activity, immigra tion represents a possible source of labor force growth. For purposes of this discussion, migration can be divid ed into two groups, legal or “documented” migration and illegal or “undocumented” migration. The Bureau of the Census projects that “documented” net migration will average 400,000 persons a year, with bulges in a few years such as 1976 and 1980 when large numbers of refugees reached our shores. To estimate the proportion of the labor force growth that net migration represents, we can look at 1979. The labor force participation rate for those age 16 and older was 63.7 percent. If the com parable rate for the migrant population was about the 57 portant not to confuse the stock of undocumented workers with the flow of documented workers discussed in the preceding paragraph. The only information avail able about flows of undocumented workers is for Mexi cans. There appears to be considerable movement in both directions netting to zero (with large seasonal fluc tuation). There is no way of ascertaining what portion of undocumented workers, if any, are currently account ed for in existing labor force data. Therefore, no chang es have been made to the projections to account for undocumented workers. Obviously, these last few paragraphs have raised rath er than answered questions about the implications of the changing structure of the labor force. The topics dis cussed here illustrate some uses for which these projec tions have been generated; there also are other uses. Q same, and ignoring the fact that there are proportion ately fewer older persons in the migrant population, some 173,000 would have been in the labor force in 1979, or about 7 percent of the actual labor force growth.16 Documented workers vary from those with high skills (the brain drain) and professional athletes to lower skilled agricultural and service workers. Undocumented workers also represent a variety of skills, from college graduates to unskilled workers. By their nature, we know little about these people as a group. The discussion that follows is based on a study conducted by Jacob S. Siegel, Jeffrey S. Passel, and J. Gregory Robinson for the Select Commission on Immi gration and Refugee Policy.17After a review of past esti mates, they concluded that there are 3 to 6 million undocumented workers in the United States. It is im FOOTNOTES tio.” See Henry S. Shryock, Jacob S. Siegel, and others, The Methods and Materials o f Demography (Bureau of the Census, 1973), p. 235. ’“Jacob S. Siegel, “On the Demography of Aging,” Demography, forthcoming, and Nathan Keyfitz, Applied Mathematical Deomography (New York, John Wiley and Sons, 1977). " Elizabeth Waldman and others, “Working mothers in the 1970’s: a look at the statistics,” Monthly Labor Review, October 1979, pp. 39 -49. 12George L. Perry, “Potential Output and Productivity,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1977; J. R. Norsworthy, M. J. Harper, and K. Kunze, “The Slowdown in Productivity Growth: Analysis of Some Contributing Factors,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1979; and the discussion by Martin Neil Baily, Edward F. Denison, and Michael L. Wachter in the same issue. 13 Edward F. Denison, Accounting for United States Economic Growth, 1929-1969 (Washington, The Brookings Institution, 1974), and Accounting for Slower Economic Growth (Washington, The Brookings Institution, 1979). 14Valerie K. Oppenheimer, “Demographic Influence on Female Em ployment and the Status of Women,” in Joan Hamber, ed., Changing Women in a Changing Society (Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1973). 15Peter F. Drucker, Managing in Turbulent Times (New York, Harper and Row, 1980). 16Projections o f the Population. . . . Table C-l contains the distribu tion of the immigrant population. 17Jacob S. Siegel, Jeffery S. Passel, and J. Gregory Robinson, “Pre liminary Review of Existing Studies of the Number of Illegal Residents in the United States” (Washington, Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy, 1980). These projections replace those described by Paul O. Flaim and Howard N Fullerton, Jr. in “Labor force projections to 1990: three possible paths,” Monthly Labor Review, pp. 25-35, December 1978. 2 These scenarios are prepared by projecting the changes in the ra tio of the total labor force to the total population for each of 54 agesex-race groups; the levels of the anticipated labor force were calculat ed by applying the projected rates to the Bureau of the Census’ popu lation projections. The high and low scenarios do not represent “confidence intervals,” but rather different views of the future. A complete methodological statement is in preparation. 3The term “blacks” refers to black and other races, which includes Negroes, American Indians, Eskimos, and others. At the time of the 1970 Census of Population, 89 percent of this population group was black. 4 Projections o f the Population o f the United States: 1977 to 2050, Current Population Reports (Bureau of the Census, Series P-25, No. 704, 1977). For an analysis of recent fertility trends, see Arthur A. Campbell, “Baby Boom to Birth Dearth and Beyond,” Annals, Janu ary 1978, pp. 40-60. 5There is no standard definition of the baby-boom period; this arti cle uses the 1950’s, as described in Leon F. Bouvier, “America’s Baby Boom Generation: The Fateful Bulge,” Population Bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 1, 1980. 6 Projections o f the Population . . . , Table A-5. A moderate increase in fertility is plausable because the Series II population projections are tracking well at this time. 7 Projections o f the Population . . . , Table A-5. 8Flaim and Fullerton, “Labor force projections. . . . ” Projections were not published for 1995. "There is no standard definition of the “economic dependency ra 58 Appendix A. Gross National Product and Components, Selected Historical and Projected Years, 1963 to 1990 59 Table A-1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Actual Projected Sector 1967 1972 Low T otal.......................................................................................... 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives 1963 High I High II Low High I High II 830503 1007284 1182760 1597947 1725780 1715750 1818222 2077928 2076188 1337 , 1510 485 716 700 1238 3114 7171 6315 10694 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 1545 557 887 1691 5367 1781 108 -350 2481 5377 6. Forestry and fishery products................. .............................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................ 9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... -729 130 -532 1 -48 -1349 368 -627 -9 -161 -706 303 -534 -43 -120 1568 742 1268 7611 11325 1564 727 1226 7342 11077 1725 878 1320 8215 12308 1829 1042 1474 9515 13672 1856 1014 1399 8774 13147 -233 421 -543 -75 -127 -283 465 -632 -90 -131 -263 460 -635 -90 -128 -346 507 -572 -83 -84 -537 604 -746 -112 -116 -523 606 -780 -118 -125 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 954 -1596 638 2 7249 1040 -1169 757 89 7906 771 -2633 918 26 9454 2978 -4715 1034 74 10140 3180 -5389 1038 68 10210 3048 -5342 1029 60 10154 3751 -4426 1074 70 11020 4241 -5613 1123 54 11447 3855 -5668 1106 27 11491 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ............................................................................... Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products .............................. .......................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s....................................................... 1844 4423 17385 9605 7476 5302 5251 19487 10941 8586 2879 3734 21195 11039 9707 2906 4890 23735 15412 12423 3004 4796 24545 16047 12904 2982 4746 24455 15995 12858 3291 5021 26005 16640 13426 3452 4869 27563 17750 14257 3514 4987 27901 18022 14451 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages ................................................................ 2590 6897 -168 2243 4360 3564 7037 -117 2792 4803 4361 6903 60 2710 7471 6485 6726 288 2971 10950 6772 7013 217 3085 11039 6708 7000 222 3076 11002 7395 6778 295 3191 12753 7992 7239 204 3380 12899 7961 7379 218 3436 12879 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 2281 5685 7508 766 966 3903 6564 7453 627 1561 4676 6973 7078 537 2689 7638 8273 7263 851 4373 7977 8607 7448 812 4707 7948 8519 7369 776 4669 9282 9263 7333 937 5017 9950 9932 7625 851 5743 10100 9852 7486 718 5749 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods.................................................... ...... Apparel.................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging.................................................................................... -236 751 17039 1706 132 -128 1002 18896 2504 275 -79 1487 19662 3107 391 94 1570 24528 3498 972 45 1721 26485 3858 1036 31 1724 26554 3816 988 -3 1671 28209 3853 1146 -110 1834 30725 4593 1291 -165 1854 31140 4679 1155 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 1661 3431 2 4520 2229 1911 3793 36 5184 2967 1953 6405 15 6754 3458 1423 8095 12 8520 4407 1314 8426 11 9171 5105 1303 8389 11 9135 5100 1434 8463 14 9441 5038 951 9265 11 10882 6698 892 9299 10 11165 6715 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 1476 185 1798 3180 1219 1835 227 2045 3776 1815 2739 255 1958 4138 2277 2575 291 2488 6774 2718 2537 308 2895 7255 2814 2484 304 2865 7194 2791 2760 325 2780 7922 2990 2615 369 3133 9056 3262 2467 363 3176 9073 3274 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ........................................................................ 1929 303 935 398 115 2012 444 1519 459 44 1796 475 1328 562 -13 3817 1130 2039 1242 376 3869 1178 2105 1300 377 3698 1129 2065 1236 349 4680 1431 2314 1457 514 4853 1561 2468 1613 520 4392 1413 2393 1425 422 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and qllied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tu b e s.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s .............................. Plastic products............. .......................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 2705 4403 588 11676 1695 956 797 -30 4122 662 3573 5927 678 14248 1780 1291 1157 -64 4383 826 5696 7581 917 14899 2675 1240 2065 -40 4122 907 10994 9477 1053 14818 2982 1268 5388 -66 4135 924 11208 10044 1096 16399 3295 1274 5658 -90 4353 936 11179 9941 1087 16363 3290 1268 5547 -94 4367 912 12853 10708 1196 14431 3203 1400 6693 -79 4455 1096 13731 12090 1329 16179 3903 1429 7495 -122 4684 1169 13562 12137 1324 16201 3860 1419 7350 -141 4744 1131 See footnotes at end of table. 60 Table A-1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 . Low High I High II Low High I High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 5361 907 442 1469 2672 5592 799 370 1402 1127 6840 860 553 1640 -396 7293 934 534 2153 -1935 7548 965 537 2219 -2509 7528 960 527 2203 -2504 7691 986 562 2354 -3801 8407 1002 569 2586 -5287 8460 1002 565 2576 -5441 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 586 2079 89 -807 92 583 1835 132 -1103 126 840 2695 -311 -1195 73 953 2964 -325 -2394 93 973 3022 -412 -2763 96 958 2991 -430 -2751 94 959 3211 -385 -2941 106 1024 3469 -586 -3746 121 993 3413 -667 -3824 115 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 1349 8008 169 490 1290 1205 10031 313 716 1396 1370 11803 124 1025 1839 1513 15041 132 1714 2395 1580 15875 106 1792 2498 1568 15814 101 1725 2459 1668 16287 151 2047 2704 1750 18734 110 2289 2995 1745 18782 97 2134 2945 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 1619 1464 2888 4646 1466 2477 2218 4309 5476 2105 3588 2791 4533 6427 2295 4741 4078 7982 11807 3359 5012 4584 9096 13481 3930 4959 4502 9064 13257 3913 5267 4534 9659 14822 4209 6043 5693 12628 19227 5719 5948 5499 12540 18610 5688 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery................................ ........................ Special industry machinery ...................................................... General industrial machinery ................................................... Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................... ............................ Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 3097 3634 3130 269 1798 4849 4784 3561 465 3284 4628 4772 3298 433 5325 6869 4849 5236 575 19729 8115 5756 6042 605 22538 8060 5707 5973 596 22178 8027 5000 6647 670 30012 10977 6923 8880 754 38771 10847 6769 8688 735 37680 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................. Household appliances............................................................. 772 2651 2422 1246 3668 1222 3882 3227 1966 4406 1142 4865 3725 1656 5952 2914 6567 5497 2398 7280 3381 7388 6246 2695 7999 3358 7338 6217 2663 7947 3500 7446 6605 3024 8316 4667 9426 8475 3809 9664 4629 9357 8440 3742 9855 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 2233 1907 1458 7523 779 2498 3408 2292 9530 1213 3113 3503 3102 7342 1414 3587 6154 4541 11761 5222 3807 7280 5408 12255 5458 3773 7127 5402 12195 5237 4174 6169 5516 14116 6535 4726 9209 7687 15631 7118 4706 9218 7684 15845 6438 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 1096 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 27202 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... , 13732 2220 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 1490 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 1488 31750 17537 3283 2377 1890 43373 12822 3988 1747 2975 56665 24729 5822 2922 3306 67456 25085 6363 3467 3273 67465 24703 6311 3457 3530 66511 29019 6987 3636 4275 86250 30658 8364 5092 4209 85908 30084 8447 5077 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 123 877 1905 735 400 214 1743 2334 1190 614 357 5037 2686 1691 917 496 4226 5732 3185 2156 611 4661 6378 3608 2336 590 4644 6319 3587 2327 596 4597 6611 3906 2745 912 5476 8141 5070 3371 926 5504 8044 5027 3350 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g oods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation..................................................................... 1013 300 1144 2302 1376 5118 4258 8023 3153 2597 2157 440 1651 2558 1741 5687 4510 9199 3419 5322 3569 322 2104 3622 2189 5596 4896 12312 3508 7224 7121 786 2429 4639 2667 6660 5345 14740 5496 13123 8185 810 2444 5409 2840 7138 5564 16055 5789 14132 8090 811 2447 5355 2806 7055 5570 15920 5629 13987 8615 838 2582 5132 2881 7431 5979 17153 6406 17066 11008 917 2899 6319 3274 8455 6246 19972 7027 19515 10820 908 2873 6353 3233 8341 6245 19890 6640 19187 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 241 196 0 8275 8508 344 142 0 11902 10868 388 411 0 17790 14554 537 536 0 34700 21444 577 571 0 38176 22716 568 557 0 37851 22537 636 655 0 42112 25020 700 749 0 49474 27454 674 702 0 49867 27868 See footnotes at end of table. 61 Table A-1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1990 alternatives 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding pu b lic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale tra d e ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 5093 2428 37667 29602 74866 5982 2684 46522 31766 91792 7009 2997 60941 36595 110451 6733 3691 79189 48630 138723 6760 3761 86561 51744 153251 6753 3756 85925 51701 152905 6675 4282 92533 55140 163565 6789 4505 109063 59383 190496 6725 4566 108766 60376 193007 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 9529 5226 14056 50347 26240 10512 8721 16676 60500 30792 15182 7776 19929 76688 41103 23590 10723 27720 116740 55412 23970 13492 28516 129850 60294 23808 13740 28515 130088 60196 27145 11775 33105 135401 62982 28177 15264 37085 157740 71635 28377 15559 37355 160714 72278 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 3388 9697 3935 5123 574 4522 11070 4515 7186 625 5993 12181 4310 8410 688 7973 12336 4133 14663 822 8746 14516 4495 15178 839 8694 14577 4504 15044 835 9145 13245 4067 16965 886 9868 16713 4873 18262 966 10091 17173 5024 18331 963 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 10383 9599 2411 5317 14441 11262 11583 2084 5834 18126 14406 14698 2062 6578 23306 20975 21911 4565 12350 35732 22004 23659 5191 13458 37304 21902 23571 5106 13323 37440 23937 26309 5250 15259 41997 27161 30631 6452 17803 47854 27673 30475 6409 18166 48538 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 11004 3991 8430 10096 1945 14676 4745 11013 11968 2550 22390 8241 12789 13105 2902 38017 13632 14048 17757 3377 39647 14392 14634 19184 3529 39397 14337 14738 19284 3501 46200 15933 15412 20545 3638 53742 19647 16481 24387 3949 54208 19796 16706 24939 4001 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 280 0 827 -4692 0 389 0 1053 -4423 0 421 0 2051 -5062 0 426 0 2607 -10856 0 461 0 2766 -13414 0 449 0 2759 -13234 0 507 0 2925 -18167 0 573 0 3280 -24432 0 547 0 3280 -24715 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 213 40518 100232 2080 6431 -251 -1353 49265 121953 5798 6442 -2127 -1761 54968 131948 6918 5349 -7591 -13030 59367 161167 14025 3986 -11519 -5287 61646 161167 14223 4068 -7000 -5356 61451 159998 12784 4065 -6941 -18389 65979 167585 14472 3962 -12897 -8362 72306 167585 14165 4004 -10246 -8629 72826 165869 9548 4013 -10189 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 62 T a b le A -2 . Peirsomal c o n s u m p tio n e x p e n d itu re s , s e le c te d h is to ric a l a n d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 996029 1084101 1082627 1149936 1319912 1339262 T otal.......................................................................................... 501375 603172 738069 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 1486 172 0 3 3793 1716 190 0 247 4219 1269 185 0 163 4417 1437 340 0 187 5701 1492 396 0 195 6101 1490 392 0 195 6083 1644 484 0 201 6352 1746 615 0 215 7060 1778 624 0 220 7205 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 623 21 0 0 0 249 168 0 0 0 848 125 0 0 0 1385 226 0 0 0 1499 263 0 0 0 1494 261 0 0 0 1628 296 0 0 0 1828 376 0 0 0 1864 382 0 0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 304 0 18 2 0 221 0 5 3 0 125 0 5 3 0 89 0 5 3 0 104 0 5 3 0 103 0 5 3 0 113 0 5 3 0 126 0 6 4 0 130 0 6 4 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 233 0 17303 9048 7213 406 0 19540 9968 8122 457 0 20976 10318 9382 769 0 23311 14602 11969 898 0 24292 15228 12483 887 0 24249 15201 12460 883 0 25349 15726 12970 1120 0 27145 16797 13854 1136 0 27686 17137 14133 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 2006 6772 846 2217 4774 2858 6907 890 2759 5341 3525 6762 1021 2703 8105 5169 6600 1115 2988 11960 5394 6884 1163 3118 12235 5384 6872 1161 3112 12190 5762 6627 1201 3219 13951 6159 7081 1284 3440 14442 6285 7225 1310 3511 14452 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering m ills ................................................................. 2172 4914 6890 796 804 3777 5912 6545 720 1269 4511 5975 6087 639 1391 7266 6796 5980 821 2316 7582 7088 6098 912 2506 7568 7075 6073 912 2476 8816 7438 5923 940 2816 9424 7945 6026 1069 3195 9618 8106 6032 1089 3191 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... 131 732 17213 1556 50 141 959 19213 2047 30 123 1551 21012 2775 5 150 1726 27289 3057 3 165 1919 29742 3429 4 163 1923 29799 3396 4 179 1855 31500 3409 4 206 2083 35023 4146 4 208 2116 35566 4254 4 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 0 242 0 3821 228 0 304 0 4520 278 0 380 0 5706 257 0 521 0 7365 347 0 564 0 7914 375 0 556 0 7884 371 0 640 0 8163 428 0 728 0 9277 485 0 727 0 9573 485 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 1589 89 1788 2247 592 1782 86 2036 2509 808 2389 106 1949 2901 880 2565 98 2475 5223 1033 2785 108 2884 5726 1128 2778 108 2855 5688 1123 2941 111 2767 6167 1179 3288 126 3120 7258 1356 3339 128 3165 7340 1390 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... Agricultural chemicals............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 14 77 277 0 0 21 109 295 0 0 20 153 375 0 0 29 253 456 0 0 32 278 505 0 0 32 277 504 0 0 32 296 544 0 0 38 334 626 0 0 39 339 633 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tu b e s .............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 2013 4081 28 9004 1392 734 165 0 4364 375 2613 5435 60 10924 1483 911 380 0 4760 523 4175 7069 123 13503 2594 1081 688 0 4923 563 7380 8662 114 12081 3238 1197 2080 0 5407 587 7541 9209 125 13183 3652 1246 2267 0 5834 638 7585 9127 125 13175 3649 1244 2218 0 5836 626 8530 9596 132 11481 3533 1389 2613 0 5750 723 9108 10852 149 12693 4423 1526 3008 0 6342 831 9146 10954 151 12742 4420 1541 3042 0 6427 838 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. See footnotes at end of table. 63 Table A-2. Personal consumption expenditures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 High I Low High II ' Low High II High I 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 3 0 287 143 14 3 0 305 164 5 1 0 414 206 5 2 0 484 323 4 2 0 525 349 5 2 0 514 348 5 2 0 532 337 5 2 0 608 408 6 2 0 612 423 6 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 0 4 13 0 0 0 8 10 0 0 0 8 20 0 0 0 9 26 0 0 0 10 28 0 0 0 10 27 0 0 0 11 31 0 0 0 14 35 0 0 0 14 36 0 0 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware............................. 63 19 41 333 578 39 21 52 416 705 80 49 40 421 849 94 68 38 405 1092 105 74 43 439 1178 105 73 42 429 1162 120 84 44 487 1240 145 95 53 559 1431 149 95 55 564 1436 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 153 154 13 0 0. 202 167 42 0 0 299 138 66 0 0 318 236 92 0 0 348 275 99 0 0 344 270 98 0 0 367 269 113 0 0 421 356 128 0 0 426 360 128 0 0 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................ Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 92 25 0 3 0 95 24 0 5 0 168 45 0 18 12 234 63 0 28 307 254 69 0 31 333 251 68 0 31 329 289 78 0 35 403 328 89 0 41 458 328 89 0 41 458 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 142 393 9 16 2573 149 466 12 19 3447 199 486 29 24 4573 297 587 30 34 5924 322 659 34 37 6620 318 655 33 36 6577 362 646 34 42 6575 411 779 40 48 7754 410 800 40 48 7980 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 530 1678 0 82 172 668 3503 0 63 165 926 4817 17 78 319 1193 9763 23 155 634 1329 11505 25 183 746 1318 11333 25 180 735 1436 11720 29 184 753 1676 16345 33 257 1049 1689 16513 33 260 1060 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................. ............... 525 15560 60 267 0 764 19145 60 479 0 1156 28380 106 973 0 1668 37333 181 1668 0 1884 44495 211 1940 0 1878 44679 208 1910 0 1960 42403 206 1898 0 2361 53114 273 2516 0 2376 53794 277 2545 0 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 225 139 22 156 275 361 457 30 207 407 1313 1628 33 275 486 2102 1383 47 395 799 2444 1635 50 411 864 2407 1632 49 413 865 2367 1466 55 499 886 3137 1874 61 568 1104 3174 1898 62 573 1117 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g o o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 448 388 1322 2068 880 2474 3818 3429 800 1941 780 521 1867 2413 1131 2715 3846 3975 643 3575 1072 524 2255 3396 1343 2486 4158 6675 1028 5806 2155 936 2685 4932 1679 2863 4681 7563 1237 9589 2493 1004 2791 5789 1839 3101 4907 8142 1335 10578 2471 1006 2804 5742 1825 3098 4914 8117 1332 10572 2651 1048 2921 5491 1960 3299 5280 8672 1427 12416 3294 1225 3399 6791 2284 3709 5535 9846 1609 14723 3348 1232 3431 6906 2313 3761 5532 10001 1625 14834 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services............... .......................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 167 25 0 6249 7066 230 104 0 8920 8949 290 196 0 12879 12220 300 243 328 259 0 29366 20358 327 258 0 29110 20181 335 274 366 318 0 37753 24972 367 314 See footnotes at end of table. 64 0 26690 19093 0 32385 22577 0 38245 25366 T a b le A -2. P e rs o n al c o n s u m p tio n e x p e n d itu re s , s e le c te d h is to ric a l a n d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 199 0 — C o n tin u e d (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 4855 2351 24284 30451 66170 5723 2580 29563 32556 83533 6555 2801 38163 37496 102158 6591 3434 44825 49486 129662 6708 3495 48532 52502 143142 6700 3492 48390 52463 142816 6651 4000 51228 56226 153651 6957 4212 58334 60409 178045 6915 4270 58974 61371 180511 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate........................................................................... 7517 5049 13389 50347 21524 8527 8516 16020 60500 25583 12374 7579 19082 76688 31977 19665 10527 26658 116740 43926 20018 13263 27442 129850 48265 19892 13512 27460 130088 48358 23174 11585 31962 135401 50402 23989 15020 35894 157740 57781 24228 15318 36218 160714 58793 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 2659 9295 3935 618 165 3666 10606 4515 1342 179 5274 11362 4310 1901 123 6788 11486 4133 3100 150 7543 13623 4495 3487 158 7497 13686 4504 3464 159 7987 12266 4067 3608 169 8687 15591 4873 4493 204 8884 16046 5024 4588 215 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 4233 8998 1801 5743 14073 4952 10810 1598 6213 17436 5350 13780 1672 6998 21676 9005 20954 3421 12700 33165 9661 22662 3986 13798 34724 9642 22576 3946 13660 34864 10806 25291 3926 15616 39307 12986 29529 4990 18169 45037 13546 29365 5062 18522 45716 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 10304 3445 6556 9997 1467 13248 3539 8664 11861 1781 19745 4898 11124 13025 1869 33517 9016 12014 17647 2128 35126 9740 12588 19072 2276 34880 9690 12750 19175 2259 41322 10785 13220 20429 2314 48634 14201 14295 24264 2592 49085 14355 14546 24826 2642 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 182 0 761 3785 0 268 0 982 5332 0 300 0 1987 6550 0 157 0 2537 6457 0 175 0 2692 7076 0 175 0 2686 7095 0 189 0 2855 7268 0 214 0 3204 8638 0 224 0 3205 8788 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment ............................................. 1761 0 0 -1815 6431 0 2639 0 0 -2587 6442 0 2163 0 0 -3524 5349 0 2279 0 0 -7172 3986 0 2737 0 0 -7831 4068 0 2748 0 0 -7855 4065 0 3184 0 0 -7916 3961 0 4022 0 0 -9466 4003 0 4077 0 0 -9591 4013 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 65 Table A-3. Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Actual Projected Sector 1985 alternatives 1963 1967 1990 alternatives 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II T otal.......................................................................................... 124491 152600 195279 246388 292733 292521 286821 390171 392600 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 2 662 -69 256 1053 -6 195 122 932 118 -20 459 289 1336 556 -25 551 454 1830 764 -25 562 463 1867 783 -25 557 459 1851 777 -29 601 508 2032 835 -35 723 611 2443 992 -35 719 607 2430 988 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 86 48 -65 -5 34 7 113 31 6 73 18 81 8 23 202 26 91 13 23 211 27 95 13 23 257 26 95 13 23 258 35 96 18 28 284 42 107 22 33 413 42 108 22 33 415 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 0 32 261 -1 28 214 314 226 6 24 81 129 416 -8 27 117 163 541 -12 30 119 182 564 -12 31 118 181 562 -12 31 130 186 617 -13 32 156 246 688 -16 36 155 246 692 -16 36 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 1 -23 257 15 39 138 104 287 55 295 81 71 294 69 134 50 140 375 84 170 52 175 383 86 174 51 175 380 85 172 80 203 415 90 188 95 299 498 108 227 94 301 496 108 225 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... S ugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 81 24 142 36 75 77 25 55 53 191 188 14 12 31 254 246 18 15 39 348 251 18 16 40 356 249 18 16 39 353 275 20 20 42 391 331 25 25 50 468 329 24 24 50 466 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 32 136 39 41 174 49 92 235 130 275 39 233 223 279 1281 50 307 289 384 2066 51 313 295 392 2226 50 311 292 389 2222 55 340 293 448 2214 66 409 352 538 2596 66 406 351 535 2617 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel.................................................................................. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... 116 15 89 48 -5 112 40 319 55 5 150 89 660 169 11 292 131 945 245 14 302 134 964 250 14 300 133 956 248 14 335 154 1120 281 17 394 185 1346 338 20 394 184 1339 336 20 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 1982 3188 1 749 1663 2318 3273 3 638 2199 2815 6227 3 1122 2679 2945 7800 -6 1302 3367 3092 8191 -6 1452 4062 3082 8168 -6 1448 4068 3090 8195 -6 1512 3848 3458 9138 -7 1954 5475 3488 9221 -7 1959 5506 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 347 47 4 103 69 478 46 2 157 211 500 64 14 96 173 627 90 23 163 255 650 92 23 167 260 647 91 23 166 258 693 103 25 183 288 798 123 30 220 345 800 123 30 219 344 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 189 30 141 13 12 288 89 134 42 -19 282 66 294 87 -14 344 92 364 134 -24 391 94 376 136 -24 390 93 374 135 -24 411 99 417 158 -30 544 119 478 191 -36 546 118 479 190 -36 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tu b e s.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b es.............................. Plastic products........................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 106 78 377 985 93 89 406 -13 -67 216 123 110 414 1294 97 103 459 -8 27 183 212 169 557 958 288 149 1113 45 209 289 353 195 659 1023 344 176 2590 52 234 365 360 199 686 1066 354 188 2700 53 239 376 357 197 684 1063 352 187 2688 53 237 374 407 401 758 1163 383 186 3049 63 281 423 490 482 857 1297 448 222 3484 76 338 493 487 479 862 1306 447 223 3500 75 336 493 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. V See footnotes at end of table. 66 Table A-3. Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 3615 747 211 976 2054 3473 636 196 860 1892 4676 759 328 1132 1965 5518 852 368 1534 1877 5779 894 383 1596 1945 5763 891 382 1591 1938 6012 913 412 1701 2133 6681 1015 462 1904 2407 6739 1024 465 1916 2417 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 386 1515 126 22 53 314 1839 166 131 92 205 2451 -12 108 45 235 2722 -29 162 55 245 2842 -29 165 59 245 2832 -29 164 58 259 2997 -38 207 61 292 3388 -47 248 77 294 3407 -47 247 77 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings.....*................................................................ Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 1063 5306 95 97 555 951 6567 111 43 429 1136 8714 91 155 840 1235 11265 118 205 1008 1292 12081 121 209 1058 1288 12055 121 207 1054 1340 12287 136 226 1117 1501 14589 159 271 1290 1512 14680 159 269 1296 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c. ........................................... Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 1021 596 2661 2811 1200 1534 1056 4093 3358 1769 2817 1779 4396 4344 2068 3496 2145 7236 6894 2945 3786 2576 8561 8284 3515 3778 2579 8575 8293 3519 4029 2362 8714 8831 3759 4853 3363 12210 12566 5272 4877 3379 12276 12631 5302 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 2325 2926 2231 30 1089 4347 4215 2647 87 2382 4016 4382 2652 106 3738 5515 4529 4325 138 11051 6718 5521 5188 149 13486 6729 5530 5195 149 13510 6430 4794 5729 160 17214 9286 6925 8118 204 24875 9337 6963 8163 203 25018 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 410 1733 1784 728 987 671 2606 2476 1171 902 616 3434 3053 1124 1595 2121 4564 4382 1526 2008 2599 5274 5176 1829 2153 2604 5274 5181 1831 2147 2671 5281 5289 1903 2639 3880 7058 7289 2704 3112 3903 7098 7331 2716 3133 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 1185 278 1267 1335 90 1192 251 2032 2384 174 1628 486 2896 1534 13 1922 854 4147 3042 197 2026 930 5034 3711 206 2019 926 5042 3718 204 2234 991 5036 4409 264 2586 1275 7251 6371 325 2599 1275 7289 6409 323 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 328 8347 1092 447 1247 334 10635 5259 941 2146 580 17541 2183 1375 1492 957 24413 3087 1859 2636 1128 29694 3712 2203 3173 1128 29742 3716 2203 3177 1267 27407 3665 2318 3386 1770 39503 5230 3269 4839 1777 39717 5255 3282 4862 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 10 721 832 349 119 56 1296 1094 615 206 131 3455 1512 1041 459 178 2866 3295 1998 1449 193 3066 3909 2396 1626 192 3059 3913 2398 1628 204 3162 3828 2523 1970 261 3673 5297 3597 2527 261 3705 5329 3614 2539 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation..................................................................... 190 17 10 306 363 1247 5 2034 75 131 692 8 40 321 490 1208 7 1656 74 216 1695 37 190 494 703 1395 11 2425 180 150 3261 55 261 680 851 1650 13 2692 210 173 3995 56 266 780 976 1802 13 3300 222 198 4003 56 264 779 976 1798 13 3295 222 198 3910 65 285 869 901 1841 14 2996 224 184 5678 78 343 1186 1204 2268 15 4284 261 238 5711 78 341 1188 1208 2279 15 4309 262 239 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.................................................. ...... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 9 0 0 1115 143 15 0 0 1548 30 7 0 0 2439 41 9 1 0 3286 46 9 1 0 3975 48 9 1 0 3981 48 11 1 0 4017 50 13 1 0 5726 55 13 1 0 5761 56 See footnotes at end of table. 67 T a b le A -3 . G ro s s p riv a te d o m e s tic in v e s tm e n t, s e le c te d h is to ric a l a n d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 199 0 — C o n tin u e d (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 4 56 6125 306 8115 7 14 7234 434 7466 5 80 11838 423 7557 5 90 15410 472 8236 6 94 17634 495 9254 6 94 17628 494 9249 6 97 18242 512 9038 6 108 24119 567 11487 7 109 24255 572 11576 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 229 14 247 0 3191 192 16 266 0 3240 286 26 263 0 5012 320 29 293 0 5601 335 31 307 0 5895 335 31 306 0 5881 346 32 320 0 6093 384 36 355 0 6747 387 36 358 0 6818 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 6 75 0 457 102 10 125 0 996 91 15 200 0 971 43 16 212 0 1340 48 17 258 0 1402 50 17 258 0 1398 50 18 282 0 1481 52 20 407 0 1643 57 20 409 0 1657 58 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 2928 316 9 9 0 3078 319 -67 12 0 4507 318 -164 9 0 5962 354 8 11 0 6233 370 8 11 0 6216 369 8 11 0 6574 390 31 11 0 7292 432 37 13 0 7353 436 37 13 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations.......................................................... Post o ffic e ............................................................................... 0 0 2 66 25 0 0 2 71 26 0 0 2 47 29 0 0 3 52 33 0 0 3 55 34 0 0 3 55 34 0 0 3 57 35 0 0 3 63 39 0 0 3 63 39 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 0 0 4 41 0 0 0 20 -104 0 0 0 5 43 0 0 0 6 49 0 0 0 6 52 0 0 0 6 51 0 0 0 7 53 0 0 0 7 61 0 0 0 7 62 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. -2363 27667 0 0 0 -251 -4609 32323 0 0 0 -2127 -5114 41386 0 0 0 -7591 -16186 45003 0 0 0 -11519 -8660 47119 0 0 0 -7000 -8667 46993 0 0 0 -6941 -21441 51437 0 0 0 -12897 -11428 57038 0 0 0 -10246 -11509 57540 0 0 0 -10189 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 68 Table A-4. Producers’ durable equipment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II T ota l.......................................................................................... 42714 62407 77273 113907 145419 145713 141992 214486 215741 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 0 0 65 0 0 0 0 199 0 0 0 0 207 0 0 0 0 254 0 0 0 0 254 0 0 0 0 282 0 0 0 0 410 0 0 0 0 412 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 0 12 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 53 0 0 0 0 73 0 0 0 0 90 0 0 0 0 90 0 0 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 128 0 0 0 0 129 0 0 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 0 12 0 0 0 0 34 0 0 0 0 80 0 0 0 0 152 0 0 0 0 187 0 0 0 0 187 0 0 0 0 217 0 0 0 0 315 0 0 0 0 317 0 0 0 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar........................................................................................ Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 0 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 244 0 0 0 0 314 0 0 0 0 385 0 0 0 0 386 0 0 0 0 356 0 0 0 0 518 0 0 0 0 521 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ Logging..................................................................................... 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 0 7 0 153 1481 0 9 0 190 1978 0 5 0 570 2388 0 5 0 568 3015 0 6 0 697 3697 0 6 0 698 3704 0 4 0 645 3468 0 6 0 938 5042 0 6 0 943 5071 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 45 0 0 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 164 0 0 0 0 188 0 0 0 0 231 0 0 0 0 231 0 0 0 0 228 0 0 0 0 331 0 0 0 0 333 0 0 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... Tires and inner tu b e s .............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 22 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 33 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. See footnotes at end of table. 69 Table A-4. Producers’ durable equipment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1972 1967 1963 High I Low High II Low High II High I 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 1 41 0 0 12 1 45 0 0 14 2 64 0 0 13 1 80 0 0 14 2 98 0 0 18 2 99 0 0 18 2 89 0 0 14 3 129 0 0 21 3 130 0 0 21 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware............................. 0 665 0 0 15 0 1131 0 0 24 0 1197 0 0 30 0 1961 0 0 48 0 2404 0 0 58 0 2409 0 0 59 0 2598 0 0 61 0 3776 0 0 89 0 3798 0 0 90 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 299 557 2596 2500 930 389 984 3606 3116 1373 683 1606 4202 3774 1641 881 1886 6917 6053 2445 1080 2312 8235 7421 2998 1082 2317 8252 7436 3004 1001 2078 8334 7851 3172 1456 3021 11752 11414 4611 1464 3039 11821 11480 4638 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 2243 2889 1912 10 1062 4150 4104 2344 7 2272 3878 4261 2170 39 3713 5304 4373 3720 40 10727 6503 5361 4561 48 13151 6516 5372 4571 49 13178 6189 4616 5045 48 16697 8997 6711 7334 69 24274 9050 6750 7377 70 24416 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 389 1303 1483 682 130 621 1965 2095 1082 142 610 2078 2318 992 215 2113 2834 3325 1322 301 2591 3475 4077 1620 369 2596 3482 4085 1624 370 2661 3355 4074 1660 401 3869 4878 5922 2413 582 3891 4906 5957 2427 586 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 66 118 1284 1263 99 78 119 1939 1834 20 82 184 2748 1444 14 160 279 3906 2938 21 197 342 4789 3602 26 197 343 4798 3610 26 230 355 4756 4294 26 335 516 6914 6243 38 337 519 6955 6279 39 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 250 7497 604 476 1221 255 10978 2945 712 2190 414 16664 1981 1145 1491 727 23260 2738 1488 2352 892 28517 3357 1824 2884 893 28575 3364 1828 2890 998 26061 3272 1915 3052 1451 37886 4756 2784 4437 1459 38108 4784 2800 4463 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 8 111 535 321 116 35 173 738 579 199 46 184 1146 973 393 57 314 2595 1739 1314 70 385 3182 2132 1488 71 386 3188 2136 1491 64 425 3030 2241 1784 93 618 4405 3258 2303 93 622 4431 3277 2316 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 172 1 0 284 273 282 0 508 6 16 611 1 0 240 344 388 0 615 8 41 1682 1 0 323 443 380 0 673 24 81 3245 2 0 424 509 461 0 693 23 93 3978 2 0 520 624 565 0 1217 28 114 3987 2 0 521 625 566 0 1220 28 114 3891 2 0 561 522 548 0 787 19 95 5657 3 0 815 759 797 0 1799 28 137 5690 3 0 820 764 801 0 1809 28 138 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 0 0 0 951 0 0 0 0 1353 0 0 0 0 2167 0 0 0 0 2982 0 0 0 0 3656 0 0 0 0 3663 0 0 0 0 3687 0 0 0 0 5361 0 0 0 0 5392 0 See footnotes at end of table. 70 T a b le A=4„ P ro d u c e rs ’ d u ra b le e q u ip m e n t, s e le c te d h is to ric a l a n d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 199 0 — C o n tin u e d (Millions of 1972 dollars) Actual Projected Sector 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives 1967 1963 1972 High I Low High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 0 0 3012 0 3278 0 0 4168 0 3235 0 0 6421 0 2677 0 0 8628 0 3417 0 0 10578 0 4189 0 0 10600 0 4198 0 0 10834 0 4260 0 0 15751 0 6193 0 0 15843 0 6229 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 0 73 0 0 0 0 123 0 0 0 0 192 0 0 0 0 202 0 0 0 0 248 0 0 0 0 249 0 0 0 0 272 0 0 0 0 395 0 0 0 0 398 0 0 0 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 7 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment ............................................. -1649 0 0 0 0 0 -3480 0 0 0 0 0 -3933 0 0 0 0 0 -9578 0 0 0 0 0 -5976 0 0 0 0 0 -5988 0 0 0 0 0 -11276 0 0 0 0 0 -8331 0 0 0 0 0 -8380 0 0 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 71 Table A-5. Nonresidential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High II High I High I Low High II T ota l.......................................................................................... 30823 41009 42478 46296 49362 49205 55699 62750 63100 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 0 0 0 1 35 0 0 0 2 25 0 0 0 3 18 0 0 0 4 20 0 0 0 4 21 0 0 0 4 21 0 0 0 4 24 0 0 0 5 27 0 0 0 5 27 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 0 22 0 0 0 0 57 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 0 0 145 0 11 0 0 144 0 14 0 0 227 0 8 0 0 297 0 9 0 0 308 0 9 0 0 307 0 9 0 0 367 0 10 0 0 408 0 12 0 0 410 0 12 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 5 0 9 0 0 2 0 8 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 5 0 2 0 0 5 0 2 0 0 5 0 2 0 0 6 0 2 0 0 6 0 2 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... S ugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages ................................................................ 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 2 7 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. Floor covering m ills ................................................................. 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 3 0 10 0 0 2 0 32 0 0 2 0 35 0 0 2 0 36 0 0 2 0 36 0 0 3 0 42 0 0 3 0 46 0 0 3 0 47 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c..................................................:.... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ Logging.................................................................................... 27 0 9 1 3 10 0 13 1 4 5 0 2 1 2 5 0 3 1 2 5 0 3 1 2 5 0 3 1 2 6 0 3 1 2 7 0 3 1 2 7 0 4 1 3 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................ Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 200 482 0 7 96 269 785 0 5 111 173 888 0 3 91 191 977 0 3 100 197 1011 0 3 104 197 1007 0 3 104 227 1164 0 3 120 253 1294 0 4 133 254 1301 0 4 134 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 95 4 0 2 6 83 0 0 1 5 58 1 0 2 5 64 2 0 2 5 66 2 0 2 5 66 2 0 2 5 76 2 0 2 6 85 2 0 2 7 85 2 0 2 7 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 68 2 84 0 0 19 0 77 0 0 49 1 114 0 0 54 1 125 0 0 56 1 130 0 0 56 1 129 0 0 65 2 149 0 0 72 2 166 0 0 73 2 167 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs....................................................................................... Cleaning and-toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... Tires and inner tu b es.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s .............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 0 0 94 455 32 28 161 0 1 32 0 0 153 498 41 13 183 0 1 112 0 0 156 548 48 9 210 0 1 75 0 0 171 552 53 10 270 0 1 83 0 0 177 571 55 10 280 0 1 86 0 0 177 570 54 10 279 0 1 85 0 0 204 668 63 11 321 0 1 99 0 0 227 743 70 13 357 0 1 110 0 0 228 747 70 13 359 0 1 110 _____ See footnotes at end of table. 72 _____ Table A-5. Nonresidential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 1286 333 80 519 1292 1861 288 83 560 1118 1702 162 136 618 1149 1873 179 150 831 1164 1938 185 155 860 1205 1932 184 155 857 1201 2232 213 179 960 1307 2482 237 199 1068 1453 2496 238 200 1074 1461 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 267 833 15 4 0 230 1177 7 20 0 70 1613 13 1 0 77 1716 14 1 0 80 1776 15 1 0 79 1770 15 1 0 92 1914 17 1 0 102 2128 19 1 0 103 2140 19 1 0 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 328 2851 68 38 134 304 3940 26 7 159 246 4820 21 7 181 271 6002 24 8 199 280 6212 24 8 206 279 6192 24 8 206 323 6421 28 10 238 359 7139 31 11 264 361 7178 32 11 266 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 347 0 0 218 204 691 0 0 167 289 1719 0 0 164 319 2090 0 0 181 351 2163 0 0 187 363 2156 0 0 186 362 2453 0 0 215 419 2727 0 0 240 465 2742 0 0 241 468 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Speciaf industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 1 0 153 3 0 1 0 33 23 0 4 0 141 3 0 4 0 155 3 0 4 0 160 3 0 4 0 160 3 0 5 0 185 3 0 6 0 205 4 0 6 0 207 4 0 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 0 254 240 22 6 0 271 207 7 38 0 358 322 16 44 0 518 463 18 48 0 536 479 18 50 0 535 477 18 50 0 627 553 21 58 0 697 614 24 64 0 701 618 24 65 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 601 1 0 42 0 649 1 0 40 0 925 1 0 30 0 1017 2 0 33 0 1052 2 0 34 0 1049 2 0 34 0 1212 2 0 40 0 1348 2 0 44 0 1355 2 0 44 0 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 14 28 0 0 0 20 18 0 0 0 15 12 0 0 0 16 14 0 0 0 17 14 0 0 0 17 14 0 0 0 19 16 0 0 0 21 18 0 0 0 22 18 0 0 0 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................ Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 0 55 166 0 0 0 60 145 0 0 0 156 227 0 0 0 165 442 0 0 0 171 458 0 0 0 170 456 0 0 0 238 511 0 0 0 265 568 0 0 0 266 571 0 0 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 4 7 1 1 23 288 2 779 31 54 1 2 1 1 40 298 2 533 24 61 4 3 1 1 19 232 3 687 49 18 4 3 1 1 21 255 4 755 54 20 4 3 1 1 21 264 4 782 56 21 4 3 1 1 21 263 4 779 56 21 5 3 1 2 25 304 4 901 64 24 6 4 1 2 27 338 5 1001 71 27 6 4 1 2 27 340 5 1007 72 27 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 6 0 0 62 54 5 0 0 118 18 4 0 0 82 12 4 0 0 90 14 4 0 0 93 14 4 0 0 93 14 5 0 0 107 16 5 0 0 119 18 6 0 0 120 18 See footnotes at end of table. 73 T a b le A-5. Nonresidential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1990 alternatives 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale tra d e ...................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 2 22 1051 138 1232 4 8 1192 239 1341 1 24 1700 127 982 2 26 2429 140 1030 2 27 2514 144 1065 2 27 2506 144 1062 2 31 2858 166 1227 2 35 3178 185 1365 2 35 3196 186 1372 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 86 5 133 0 457 116 9 160 0 689 86 10 96 0 616 95 11 105 0 745 98 11 109 0 771 98 11 109 0 769 113 13 126 0 680 125 15 140 0 756 126 15 140 0 760 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 1 1 0 209 46 2 1 0 604 55 4 2 0 411 13 5 3 0 593 14 5 3 0 614 15 5 3 0 612 15 6 3 0 707 17 6 4 0 786 19 7 4 0 790 19 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 1420 121 0 5 0 1642 198 0 4 0 2161 134 0 3 0 2875 148 0 3 0 2975 153 0 3 0 2966 152 0 3 0 3370 176 0 4 0 3747 195 0 4 0 3768 197 0 4 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 0 0 1 25 9 0 0 1 41 16 0 0 1 14 8 0 0 1 15 9 0 0 1 16 9 0 0 1 16 9 0 0 1 18 11 0 0 1 20 12 0 0 1 20 12 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 12 6 0 0 0 2 10 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 2 13 0 0 0 2 15 0 0 0 2 15 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. -646 12658 0 0 0 0 -139 18617 0 0 0 0 -125 17137 0 0 0 0 -2432 18150 0 0 0 0 -1068 18784 0 0 0 0 -1064 18724 0 0 0 0 -1964 22471 0 0 0 0 -1357 24982 0 0 0 0 -1365 25121 0 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 74 Table A-6. Residential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 High I Low High II Low High I High II T otal.......................................................................................... 43193 37178 65180 71168 77894 77714 71375 86301 87275 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton........................................................................................ Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 0 0 0 9 321 0 0 0 5 33 0 0 0 15 91 0 0 0 17 103 0 0 0 18 108 0 0 0 18 108 0 0 0 18 107 0 0 0 20 118 0 0 0 20 119 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................ 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 0 25 0 0 0 0 57 0 0 0 0 69 0 0 0 0 77 0 0 0 0 81 0 0 0 0 81 0 0 0 0 80 0 0 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 89 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 0 0 114 0 18 0 0 68 0 10 0 0 166 0 19 0 0 216 0 21 0 0 228 0 22 0 0 227 0 22 0 0 219 0 22 0 0 242 0 24 0 0 245 0 25 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products ......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s....................................................... 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 4 0 5 0 0 4 0 5 0 0 4 0 5 0 0 4 0 5 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... S ugar........................................................................................ Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 4 21 0 0 0 2 8 0 0 0 2 10 0 0 0 2 10 0 0 0 2 10 0 0 0 2 10 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 2 11 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 0 0 4 0 89 0 0 7 0 165 0 0 4 0 866 0 0 4 0 1520 0 0 4 0 1604 0 0 4 0 1600 0 0 4 0 1597 0 0 5 0 1767 0 0 5 0 1787 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... 28 0 12 1 0 1 0 27 0 0 88 0 5 3 0 96 0 6 3 0 101 0 6 3 0 101 0 6 3 0 97 0 6 3 0 108 0 6 3 0 109 0 7 3 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 1732 2640 0 490 68 1962 2393 0 386 62 2377 4977 0 194 122 2423 6246 0 207 137 2557 6591 0 218 145 2551 6576 0 218 144 2474 6392 0 266 142 2738 7074 0 294 157 2769 7154 0 298 159 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 137 1 0 2 6 135 1 0 2 13 262 2 0 3 11 294 3 0 3 12 311 3 0 4 13 310 3 0 4 13 306 3 0 3 13 338 3 0 4 14 342 3 0 4 14 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 28 2 31 0 0 2 2 14 0 0 12 6 81 0 0 14 6 91 0 0 14 7 96 0 0 14 7 96 0 0 14 7 95 0 0 16 7 105 0 0 16 7 106 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tu b e s .............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s .............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 0 0 231 316 5 23 190 0 1 83 0 0 198 215 9 15 195 0 1 21 0 0 286 369 61 62 582 0 2 58 0 0 325 414 69 68 1444 0 2 65 0 0 343 437 73 72 1524 0 2 68 0 0 342 436 73 71 1520 0 2 68 0 0 370 430 72 70 1662 0 2 67 0 0 410 476 79 77 1839 0 2 74 0 0 414 481 80 78 1860 0 2 75 See footnotes at end of table. 75 Table A-6. Residential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II High I Low High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 2314 400 108 411 623 1541 325 96 252 121 2840 568 160 398 353 3493 639 180 547 397 3686 674 190 577 419 3677 673 189 576 418 3613 663 187 564 412 3999 734 207 624 456 4044 742 209 631 461 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 108 565 35 0 0 66 498 3 0 0 107 581 5 0 0 120 653 6 0 0 127 689 6 0 0 127 687 6 0 0 125 678 6 0 0 138 750 6 0 0 140 759 6 0 0 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures............................... Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 715 1693 2 0 319 610 1377 10 0 154 769 2290 15 0 422 815 2775 17 0 474 860 2928 18 0 500 858 2921 18 0 499 848 2672 17 0 492 939 2957 19 0 544 949 2990 20 0 551 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c......................................... . Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 332 0 0 15 49 304 0 0 0 62 184 0 0 64 58 207 0 0 72 65 218 0 0 76 69 218 0 0 76 68 215 0 0 75 67 238 0 0 83 75 240 0 0 84 75 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 1 0 107 3 0 1 0 119 15 0 8 0 204 6 0 9 0 229 7 119 10 0 241 7 126 10 0 241 7 126 9 0 237 7 215 10 0 263 8 238 11 0 266 8 241 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 0 106 54 3 614 0 217 103 6 611 0 701 316 1 956 0 788 431 1 1198 0 831 455 1 1264 0 829 454 1 1261 0 818 468 1 1631 0 905 518 2 1805 0 915 524 2 1825 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 482 22 0 4 0 397 32 0 11 0 442 39 0 55 0 497 53 0 61 0 525 55 0 65 0 524 55 0 65 0 516 59 0 64 0 571 65 0 71 0 578 66 0 71 0 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 23 4 0 0 0 16 6 0 0 0 31 14 0 0 0 34 15 0 0 0 36 16 0 0 0 36 16 0 0 0 36 16 0 0 0 40 17 0 0 0 40 18 0 0 0 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 0 500 91 0 0 0 1030 120 0 0 0 2925 95 0 0 0 2160 194 0 0 0 2279 205 0 0 0 2274 204 0 0 0 2238 219 0 0 0 2476 242 0 0 0 2504 245 0 0 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 1 1 1 1 33 596 3 618 28 60 2 1 1 1 48 387 5 385 21 111 8 2 2 2 82 536 8 828 76 42 9 2 2 2 92 583 9 914 82 47 9 2 2 2 97 615 10 965 87 49 9 2 2 2 97 614 10 962 87 49 9 2 2 2 96 593 9 939 83 49 10 2 2 2 106 657 10 1039 92 54 10 2 2 2 107 664 11 1051 93 54 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 0 0 0 102 90 0 0 0 77 12 0 0 0 191 29 0 1 0 214 32 0 1 0 226 34 0 1 0 226 34 0 1 0 223 33 0 1 0 246 37 0 1 0 249 37 See footnotes at end of table. 76 Table A-6. Residential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 2 35 1635 168 3605 3 6 1287 196 2891 3 57 2718 296 3896 4 64 2911 333 3786 4 67 3072 351 3995 4 67 3065 350 3986 4 66 2935 345 3547 4 73 3248 382 3926 4 74 3285 386 3970 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance..........................:...................................................... Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 143 9 115 0 2734 76 6 106 0 2551 200 17 167 0 4396 225 19 188 0 4856 238 20 198 0 5124 237 20 198 0 5112 234 19 195 0 5413 259 21 216 0 5991 262 22 218 0 6058 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 5 1 0 248 57 8 1 0 392 36 10 6 0 560 30 12 7 0 747 34 12 7 0 788 36 12 7 0 786 36 12 7 0 775 35 13 8 0 858 39 13 8 0 867 39 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services......................................,...... 1508 195 0 5 0 1436 122 1 9 0 2345 184 0 7 0 3087 206 0 8 0 3258 218 0 8 0 3250 217 0 8 0 3204 214 0 8 0 3545 237 0 9 0 3585 240 0 9 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations ................................................ ......... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 0 0 1 41 16 0 0 1 30 10 0 0 2 33 21 0 0 2 37 24 0 0 2 39 25 0 0 2 39 25 0 0 2 39 24 0 0 2 43 27 0 0 2 43 27 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....... ............... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 0 0 2 8 0 0 0 7 11 0 0 0 4 24 0 0 0 4 27 0 0 0 5 29 0 0 0 5 29 0 0 0 5 28 0 0 0 5 31 0 0 0 5 31 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. -211 15009 0 0 0 0 -891 13706 0 0 0 0 -1260 24250 0 0 0 0 -4414 26853 0 0 0 0 -1859 28335 0 0 0 0 -1855 28270 0 0 0 0 -8467 28966 0 0 0 0 -2059 32056 0 0 0 0 -2083 32418 0 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 77 Table A-7. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Actual Projected Sector 1985 alternatives 1967 1963 1990 alternatives 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II T ota l.......................................................................................... 7762 12007 10350 15019 20060 19891 17757 26635 26485 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton........................................................................................ Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 2 662 -69 246 697 -6 195 122 925 60 -20 459 289 1318 447 -25 551 454 1810 641 -25 562 463 1845 654 -25 557 459 1830 648 -29 601 508 2011 704 -35 723 611 2419 847 -35 719 607 2405 843 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 86 0 -65 -5 -1 7 0 31 6 8 18 0 8 23 4 26 0 13 23 4 27 0 13 23 4 26 0 13 23 4 35 0 18 28 2 42 0 22 33 3 42 0 22 33 3 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 0 20 2 -1 0 214 296 14 6 0 81 75 23 -8 0 117 90 28 -12 0 119 92 29 -12 0 118 91 29 -12 0 130 98 31 -13 0 156 118 38 -16 0 155 118 37 -16 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s....................................................... -4 -35 239 15 39 134 70 276 55 295 73 -9 289 69 134 42 -12 369 84 170 43 -12 376 86 174 43 -12 373 85 172 70 -13 408 90 188 84 -16 491 108 227 84 -16 488 108 225 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... S ugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 81 24 142 32 53 77 25 55 48 169 188 14 12 28 241 246 18 15 36 333 251 18 16 36 340 249 18 16 36 337 275 20 20 38 375 331 25 25 46 451 329 24 24 46 448 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 32 136 32 41 31 49 92 226 130 18 39 233 217 279 140 50 307 283 384 198 51 313 288 392 201 50 311 286 389 200 55 340 287 448 220 66 409 345 538 264 66 406 343 535 263 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... 60 15 69 47 -8 101 40 280 54 2 54 89 653 166 9 189 131 937 241 12 193 134 955 246 12 191 133 947 244 12 229 154 1111 277 14 276 185 1337 333 17 274 184 1329 332 17 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 49 60 1 99 19 87 86 3 58 48 265 358 3 356 78 331 573 -6 524 115 338 584 -6 534 117 335 579 -6 530 116 389 635 -6 597 119 468 764 -7 719 143 465 760 -7 715 142 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard.............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 115 42 4 99 58 261 45 2 154 194 180 61 14 92 158 268 86 23 158 238 274 88 23 162 242 271 87 23 160 240 312 98 25 178 270 375 118 30 214 325 373 118 30 213 323 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 48 26 27 13 12 185 87 43 42 -19 57 59 99 87 -14 88 84 148 134 -24 89 86 151 136 -24 89 85 149 135 -24 104 91 173 158 -30 126 110 208 191 -36 125 109 207 190 -36 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. D rugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... Tires and inner tu b es.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 106 78 51 215 56 15 52 -13 -69 101 123 110 64 581 47 40 75 -8 25 50 212 169 116 42 178 48 310 45 206 156 353 195 163 57 222 70 860 52 232 218 360 199 166 58 227 71 877 53 236 222 357 197 165 57 225 71 870 53 234 220 407 401 184 65 248 82 1043 63 278 257 490 482 221 78 299 98 1255 76 335 309 487 479 220 78 297 98 1248 75 333 307 See footnotes at end of table. 78 Table A-7. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 15 14 23 47 139 71 23 18 48 653 134 29 31 116 463 153 34 38 156 316 156 35 39 159 322 154 35 38 158 320 167 37 47 176 414 201 45 56 212 498 200 45 56 211 495 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 10 76 77 18 41 17 120 156 111 78 26 194 -29 107 32 37 273 -49 161 40 37 279 -50 164 41 37 276 -49 163 41 41 317 -60 206 47 49 381 -72 247 56 49 379 -72 246 56 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw rrjachine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 21 97 25 59 87 36 119 75 36 92 121 407 55 148 207 149 527 78 196 287 152 538 80 200 293 151 533 79 199 291 169 596 90 216 326 204 717 108 260 393 202 713 108 258 390 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 43 39 66 78 17 150 72 487 75 45 232 173 194 342 51 318 259 319 588 84 324 264 326 599 86 322 262 323 594 85 360 284 380 690 101 433 342 458 830 121 431 340 455 825 121 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 80 37 60 14 27 195 111 152 43 110 126 121 138 59 25 198 156 221 89 205 201 159 225 90 209 200 158 224 90 207 227 178 263 102 302 273 214 316 123 363 271 213 314 122 361 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................. Household appliances............................................................. 21 69 7 22 238 51 153 71 77 112 5 298 98 115 380 8 423 163 186 461 9 432 166 189 470 8 428 165 188 466 10 481 194 221 549 12 579 234 266 661 12 576 233 264 657 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 37 138 -16 27 -9 68 99 93 501 155 179 262 149 6 -1 247 521 241 10 176 252 531 246 10 180 250 526 244 10 178 276 576 280 12 238 332 692 336 14 286 330 689 334 14 285 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 41 818 488 -29 26, 43 -367 2314 229 -45 121 851 203 230 1 180 1125 349 371 284 183 1147 356 378 289 182 1137 353 375 287 215 1315 394 403 334 258 1582 473 485 401 257 1573 471 482 399 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 3 55 40 28 3 21 33 91 36 8 85 190 44 68 66 121 227 64 259 135 123 231 65 264 138 122 229 65 262 137 140 261 68 282 186 169 314 82 339 224 168 313 82 337 223 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation..................................................................... 13 8 9 21 35 81 0 128 10 1 78 4 38 79 58 135 0 123 20 3 2 31 188 169 159 248 0 238 31 9 4 49 258 253 229 351 0 330 51 14 4 50 263 258 234 358 0 336 52 15 4 49 261 256 232 355 0 334 51 14 5 58 282 305 259 396 0 370 58 17 6 69 340 367 312 476 0 445 69 20 6 69 338 365 310 474 0 442 69 20 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 3 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 See footnotes at end of table. 79 Table A-7. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II High I Low High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale tra d e ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 0 0 428 0 0 0 0 588 0 0 0 0 999 0 2 0 0 1441 0 4 0 0 1470 0 4 0 0 1457 0 4 0 0 1615 0 4 0 0 1943 0 4 0 0 1932 0 4 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 -69 0 0 0 0 -164 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 0 0 0 29 0 0 0 0 -124 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 9 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 143 0 0 0 0 -251 -99 0 0 0 0 -2127 204 0 0 0 0 -7591 238 0 0 0 0 -11519 243 0 0 0 0 -7000 241 0 0 0 0 -6941 266 0 0 0 0 -12897 320 0 0 0 0 -10246 318 0 0 0 0 -10189 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 80 Table A-8. Net exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1990 alternatives 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II T otal.......................................................................................... 7258 3542 -3406 36891 30656 23994 43138 28438 3363 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 12 -281 464 1973 553 15 -283 402 1836 604 15 -163 389 2415 1329 36 -184 447 5569 3827 38 -225 477 5953 4036 36 -231 455 5680 3819 42 -216 470 6566 4652 47 -305 529 7425 5138 42 -339 473 6665 4480 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... -689 12 -473 6 -468 -797 11 -587 -16 -391 -1047 18 -517 -66 -316 -1160 40 -541 -97 -338 -1338 43 -630 -113 -388 -1335 41 -633 -113 -386 -1448 48 -567 -111 -368 -1860 53 -746 -145 -529 -1910 47 -779 -151 -540 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 565 -1628 -103 -35 2 506 -1483 -64 38 4 495 -2762 -89 -16 6 2684 -4975 -84 46 14 2872 -5665 -107 39 15 2742 -5613 -112 31 14 3420 -4777 -121 49 16 3872 -6020 -175 33 18 3482 -6067 -197 5 17 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 261 9 -530 188 -19 211 17 -818 7 -128 233 11 -928 0 -225 282 25 -789 137 -122 293 27 -988 127 -179 275 26 -1029 109 -199 339 30 -697 163 -184 365 34 -1074 141 -315 307 30 -1272 80 -398 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... S ugar........................................................................................ Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 448 -9 -1163 -63 -484 506 -27 -1072 -77 -732 545 -33 -991 -94 -881 937 -45 -856 -118 -1350 994 -52 -976 -140 -1542 944 -53 -968 -142 -1531 1201 -51 -942 -138 -1581 1343 -69 -1121 -187 -2004 1189 -73 -1132 -202 -2031 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 32 502 579 -146 -53 24 413 671 -348 -43 70 542 767 -464 -65 268 949 995 -512 -74 285 969 1058 -652 -90 271 898 1006 -685 -92 345 1246 1117 -624 -88 386 1311 1249 -936 -122 342 1072 1106 -1088 -134 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... -505 4 -430 3 86 -399 3 -863 9 240 -365 -153 -2225 -31 375 -367 -287 -4080 -17 955 -442 -332 -4683 -32 1019 -451 -331 -4661 -38 970 -543 -338 -4818 -85 1125 -738 -434 -6150 -135 1267 -795 -446 -6277 -162 1131 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. -611 -396 -4 -116 -25 -676 -484 0 -122 -104 -973 -624 -1 -183 -100 -1619 -607 1 -298 -135 -1876 -711 1 -344 -158 -1877 -716 1 -344 -159 -1757 -751 1 -401 -159 -2612 -990 0 -517 -209 -2700 -1040 -1 -532 -220 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... -823 15 3 157 13 -982 24 -1 137 14 -828 26 -8 107 35 -1430 42 -15 251 53 -1720 44 -17 251 51 -1757 42 -17 229 45 -1699 49 -18 263 61 -2328 54 -23 260 56 -2526 47 -24 194 37 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 556 105 238 367 87 654 132 139 425 31 556 149 231 454 -14 2050 639 535 1084 345 2082 658 554 1140 348 1922 613 519 1077 319 2468 890 639 1276 482 2565 957 684 1401 498 2059 805 573 1213 397 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tu b e s .............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 208 85 41 -229 55 25 59 -18 -184 -12 184 101 55 -548 -39 -60 60 -59 -430 -37 270 121 67 -2161 -337 -257 21 -86 -1028 -129 980 310 90 -874 -799 -438 374 -121 -1525 -233 1016 327 96 -1048 -921 -513 344 -146 -1741 -285 951 309 92 -1068 -919 -516 295 -149 -1727 -294 1237 367 102 -891 -925 -528 658 -144 -1599 -275 1331 404 115 -1219 -1196 -694 619 -200 -2021 -390 1122 352 103 -1322 -1236 -727 422 -219 -2044 -435 See footnotes at end of table. 81 Table A-8. Net exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products................................ -18 -13 -102 18 -460 -15 -3 -186 -15 -1610 -81 -34 -236 -30 -2813 -135 -50 -375 -37 -4252 -155 -61 -430 -61 -4898 -155 -63 -428 -71 -4884 -163 -64 -444 -39 -6371 -209 -155 -566 -90 -8140 -215 -165 -577 -130 -8313 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 45 -31 -81 -595 25 68 -718 -94 -1038 11 115 -166 -346 -1264 10 220 -185 -361 -2534 22 229 -245 -449 -2907 22 214 -261 -466 -2893 20 222 -236 -423 -3113 28 238 -373 -616 -3963 28 199 -448 -701 -4033 21 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures............................... Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 44 271 -19 20 40 24 243 -41 212 7 -1 244 -92 413 -100 50 315 -164 1062 -8 46 328 -194 1129 -41 40 308 -196 1074 -58 59 352 -198 1280 -16 -49 380 -265 1436 -89 -72 321 -281 1276 -156 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 78 400 168 1374 121 80 374 99 1483 132 -166 461 14 1791 70 238 1145 566 4482 234 207 1192 343 4769 235 169 1118 298 4537 215 186 1287 734 5528 255 93 1378 186 6198 253 -43 1153 31 5506 189 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 516 646 464 59 212 165 468 460 83 417 285 264 343 72 977 869 120 500 152 6623 898 35 447 162 7018 839 -23 374 155 6659 1020 -32 447 184 9897 1085 -243 303 207 11049 901 -439 56 184 9764 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 21 252 169 190 61 42 385 136 230 -18 -51 451 94 193 -289 -36 760 154 360 -755 -62 797 120 362 -880 -74 751 87 331 -883 -157 761 102 425 -1013 -244 810 5 429 -1324 -291 674 -115 329 -1380 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 32 -147 17 267 128 83 -500 10 324 179 65 -1924 -16 316 436 6 -4668 65 686 3224 -18 -5356 51 686 3363 -32 -5330 38 626 3159 1 -6802 111 675 4198 -50 -8664 82 643 4489 -100 -8822 27 448 3751 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 34 1134 1100 21 179 60 -611 1743 -7 151 -19 -4336 2483 18 148 -44 -8321 7580 92 200 -97 -10029 8251 75 207 -123 -10248 7833 57 194 -176 -7074 9640 91 157 -325 -10202 11247 50 156 -428 -11527 9919 -12 116 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ -119 8 387 86 -34 -212 -23 466 92 -78 -1105 -67 454 143 -151 -1790 -46 1024 302 -297 -2040 -65 1076 311 -354 -2022 -72 1016 289 -360 -1981 -57 1159 318 -393 -2499 -100 1263 329 -534 -2521 -126 1083 263 -576 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 63 -114 -192 -149 -76 758 0 762 1887 -164 120 -206 -268 -271 -207 866 0 755 1821 -11 192 -275 -338 -448 -309 1085 1 887 1690 128 852 -267 -526 -1141 -376 1436 1 2020 3130 1667 847 -310 -623 -1330 -461 1530 1 2161 3332 1686 771 -311 -631 -1335 -475 1457 1 2063 3172 1551 1125 -353 -643 -1408 -543 1560 2 2815 3701 2591 1107 -461 -862 -1845 -754 1754 2 3188 4156 2728 817 -481 -918 -1929 -828 1563 2 2867 3700 2232 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 40 170 0 52 15 62 38 0 150 10 56 215 0 389 -29 181 292 0 1332 -40 193 312 0 1425 -52 185 298 0 1361 -56 240 380 0 1823 -60 272 431 0 2064 -90 245 387 0 1856 -105 See footnotes at end of table. 82 Table A-8. Met exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale tra d e ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... -119 4 3799 0 34 -114 6 5284 0 67 -237 11 6973 0 119 -589 20 14276 0 272 -679 21 15670 0 291 -678 20 15197 0 278 -750 23 17946 0 321 -962 27 21383 0 364 -986 24 20244 0 327 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 2 12 -26 0 588 7 11 -97 0 695 8 11 71 0 2035 31 26 160 0 3275 33 27 154 0 3504 31 26 136 0 3345 41 32 181 0 3777 46 36 166 0 4278 42 32 107 0 3847 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 0 0 0 44 19 3 0 0 121 31 4 0 0 399 31 7 0 0 1490 100 7 0 0 1594 106 7 0 0 1522 101 8 0 0 1892 122 9 0 0 2142 136 8 0 0 1926 120 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 298 0 493 0 0 447 0 390 0 0 400 0 426 0 0 984 0 933 0 0 1053 0 998 0 0 1005 0 952 0 0 1143 0 1064 0 0 1295 0 1203 0 0 1164 0 1079 0 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffic e ............................................................................... 0 0 0 26 44 0 0 0 25 25 0 0 0 23 21 0 0 0 36 18 0 0 0 35 19 0 0 0 32 18 0 0 0 36 20 0 0 0 35 23 0 0 0 25 21 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 95 0 0 -11111 0 109 0 0 -13680 0 118 0 0 -15162 0 263 0 0 -21407 0 281 0 0 -24475 0 268 0 0 -24307 0 310 0 0 -28891 0 351 0 0 -36342 0 316 0 0 -36904 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. -250 1 0 5067 0 0 -406 10 0 8885 0 0 -210 4 0 10646 0 0 -426 9 0 21981 0 0 -647 9 0 22818 0 0 -733 9 0 21367 0 0 -1769 11 0 23555 0 0 -2551 13 0 24768 0 0 -2883 11 0 20222 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 83 Table A-9. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II T ota l.......................................................................................... 42217 54249 72793 164909 176427 168432 203280 230224 207028 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 15 49 495 2025 1050 16 59 438 1873 1291 47 94 403 2465 1896 39 215 464 5637 4675 42 230 497 6030 5001 40 220 474 5757 4775 46 254 491 6652 5674 52 287 556 7534 6426 47 258 500 6775 5779 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 89 16 141 25 7 92 19 131 33 12 105 19 102 17 15 240 44 216 32 46 257 47 231 34 50 245 44 221 32 47 283 51 220 41 57 321 58 249 46 64 289 52 224 42 58 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 569 1 50 62 2 510 1 100 124 4 496 1 90 79 6 2686 3 162 195 14 2874 4 173 209 15 2744 3 165 200 14 3422 5 172 226 16 3875 5 195 256 18 3485 5 175 230 17 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ....................................................... .................. Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 292 9 448 274 289 335 17 348 133 295 314 11 569 187 339 408 25 1301 428 574 437 27 1392 458 614 417 26 1329 437 586 488 30 1536 505 655 553 34 1739 572 742 497 30 1564 514 667 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products ................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 491 7 5 26 19 553 7 9 35 29 619 . 11 9 39 33 1053 26 21 89 79 1127 27 22 95 85 1076 26 21 91 81 1338 30 24 105 94 1516 34 28 119 106 1363 30 25 107 96 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yam, and thread mills................................................. Floor covering m ills ................................................................. 37 700 709 352 1 40 825 720 287 17 85 971 839 432 33 295 1614 1100 1003 78 316 1727 1177 1073 84 302 1648 1124 1024 80 378 2029 1242 1175 92 429 2297 1407 1331 104 385 2066 1265 1197 93 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods................................................. ......... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ Logging..................................................................................... 33 18 172 42 141 82 28 166 82 302 123 26 235 103 407 346 61 537 183 1005 370 65 575 195 1075 353 62 549 186 1027 416 70 634 213 1184 471 79 718 241 1341 424 71 646 217 1206 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 170 45 3 14 27 215 60 4 28 23 336 106 3 33 28 468 288 6 76 64 501 308 6 81 69 478 294 6 77 65 557 345 7 89 76 631 390 8 101 86 567 351 7 91 77 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 579 29 5 244 26 721 28 4 247 47 957 33 4 276 91 1344 52 4 501 140 1438 55 4 536 150 1373 53 4 511 143 1465 60 4 557 164 1660 67 5 631 185 1492 61 4 567 167 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 858 144 323 386 144 1233 201 276 473 128 1569 329 400 576 188 3664 1007 794 1369 659 3920 1078 849 1465 705 3742 1029 811 1398 673 4279 1292 949 1620 856 4846 1464 1075 1835 969 4358 1316 967 1650 872 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and.allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... Tires and inner tu b e s.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b es.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 276 104 42 826 91 142 107 69 26 143 319 132 56 761 75 121 160 60 24 186 539 167 69 712 91 153 341 71 36 206 1448 382 93 771 158 199 1186 123 56 289 1549 409 99 825 169 213 1269 132 59 309 1479 390 95 788 162 203 1211 126 57 295 1783 451 105 759 246 228 1646 143 54 339 2019 510 119 860 278 258 1864 162 62 384 1816 459 107 773 250 232 1676 145 55 346 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. See footnotes at end of table. 84 Table A-9. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual Sector 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 6 30 27 115 652 14 35 28 146 555 13 40 36 167 625 30 66 46 269 809 32 70 50 288 866 30 67 47 275 826 35 71 51 322 887 40 80 58 364 1004 36 72 52 328 903 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 68 412 158 180 37 115 290 246 309 20 175 306 241 268 26 313 492 551 313 47 335 527 590 335 51 320 503 563 320 48 332 590 650 323 57 376 668 737 366 65 338 601 662 329 58 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 51 295 43 75 164 58 291 73 275 167 68 324 81 474 201 156 439 105 1157 460 166 470 113 1237 492 159 448 108 1181 469 184 500 119 1393 542 208 567 134 1577 614 187 510 121 1418 552 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery ...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 205 439 409 1409 136 368 490 500 1610 164 411 710 470 1968 198 940 1624 1075 4862 453 1005 1737 1150 5201 484 960 1658 1098 4966 462 1109 1916 1368 6021 534 1256 2170 1437 6819 605 1130 1951 1292 6132 544 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 608 831 529 60 284 572 974 764 85 600 582 1139 876 79 1525 1331 1480 1774 162 7605 1424 1583 1898 174 8137 1359 1511 1812 166 7768 1571 1587 2034 197 11151 1779 1797 2304 223 12629 1600 1616 2072 200 11357 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment.................................. .......... Electrical industrial apparatus................................................. Household appliances.....'................................................ ....... 76 255 197 241 150 134 403 288 340 164 135 528 410 418 216 309 1002 812 709 293 330 1072 868 758 313 315 1024 829 724 299 364 1163 973 840 374 413 1317 1102 952 423 371 1184 991 856 381 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 111 78 42 326 188 202 93 57 522 356 237 208 81 604 1008 357 585 324 1381 4477 382 626 346 1478 4790 365 598 331 1411 4573 400 739 452 1630 6284 453 837 511 1846 7117 408 753 460 1660 6400 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 110 1865 1229 35 181 200 2352 2128 66 160 301 4123 3045 189 174 688 8043 8843 432 294 736 8605 9461 462 315 703 8215 9032 441 301 815 10125 11514 510 329 923 11467 13041 578 372 830 10312 11727 520 335 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c......................................... :.... Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 2 13 424 99 24 5 26 543 120 40 7 79 573 209 74 20 181 1310 478 231 21 193 1402 511 247 20 185 1338 488 236 24 213 1546 564 304 27 242 1751 639 344 24 217 1575 574 309 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g oods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation..................................................................... 164 6 118 69 67 802 0 762 1972 313 284 13 144 91 159 896 0 755 1932 790 575 14 226 257 204 1142 1 887 1838 1075 1789 86 350 453 467 1525 1 2020 3360 3085 1914 92 375 485 499 1631 1 2161 3594 3300 1827 87 358 463 476 1557 1 2063 3431 3151 2432 128 402 561 551 1665 2 2815 3975 4207 2754 145 455 635 624 1885 2 3188 4502 4765 2477 130 410 571 561 1695 2 2867 4048 4285 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 40 170 0 52 24 62 38 0 150 29 56 215 0 389 38 181 292 0 1332 99 193 312 0 1425 106 185 298 0 1361 101 240 380 0 1823 117 272 431 0 2064 132 245 387 0 1856 119 See footnotes at end of table. 85 Table A-9. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale tra d e ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 12 4 2280 0 34 53 6 2948 0 67 110 11 3980 0 119 131 20 8515 0 272 140 21 9109 0 291 134 20 8696 0 278 135 23 10521 0 321 153 27 12029 0 364 137 24 10817 0 327 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 2 12 47 0 588 7 11 25 0 695 8 11 236 0 2035 31 26 416 0 3275 33 27 446 0 3504 31 26 425 0 3345 41 32 485 0 3777 46 36 549 0 4278 42 32 493 0 3847 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 0 0 0 44 25 3 0 0 122 39 4 0 0 401 40 7 0 0 1493 116 7 0 0 1598 124 7 0 0 1525 119 8 0 0 1896 141 9 0 0 2147 160 8 0 0 1931 144 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 298 0 494 0 0 447 0 391 0 0 400 0 438 0 0 984 0 948 0 0 1053 0 1014 0 0 1005 0 968 0 0 1143 0 1082 0 0 1295 0 1226 0 0 1164 0 1102 0 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffic e ............................................................................... 0 0 0 38 44 0 0 0 45 25 0 0 0 53 21 0 0 0 73 18 0 0 0 78 19 0 0 0 75 18 0 0 0 82 20 0 0 0 93 23 0 0 0 83 21 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c.......................................................■. Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 95 0 0 388 0 109 0 0 486 0 118 0 0 681 0 263 0 0 1441 0 281 0 0 1542 0 268 0 0 1472 0 310 0 0 2260 0 351 0 0 2559 0 316 0 0 2301 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 356 1 0 6547 0 0 722 10 0 11154 0 0 919 4 0 14167 0 0 2359 9 0 32118 0 0 2524 9 0 34361 0 0 2410 9 0 32804 0 0 2531 11 0 38543 0 0 2866 13 0 43652 0 0 2577 11 0 39254 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 86 Table A-10. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II -76199 -128018 -145771 -144438 -160142 -201786 -203365 T ota l.......................................................................................... -34959 -50707 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... -3 -330 -31 -52 -497 -1 -342 -36 -37 -687 -2 -257 -14 -50 -567 -3 -399 . -17 -68 -847 -4 -455 -19 -77 -965 -4 -451 -19 -76 -956 -4 -470 -21 -86 -1022 -5 -592 -27 -108 -1288 -5 -597 -27 -109 -1298 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................ 9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... -778 -4 -614 -19 -475 -889 -7 -719 -48 -403 -1152 -2 -619 -83 -331 -1400 -3 -757 -129 -384 -1595 -4 -862 -147 -438 -1580 -4 -854 -146 -434 -1731 -4 -787 -152 -425 -2181 -5 -995 -191 -593 -2198 -5 -1003 -193 -598 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... -4 -1629 -153 -97 0 -4 -1484 -164 -85 0 -1 -2763 -179 -96 0 -2 -4978 -246 -150 0 -2 -5669 -280 -170 0 -2 -5617 -277 -169 0 -2 -4782 -293 -177 0 -3 -6025 -369 -223 0 -3 -6072 -372 -225 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s....................................................... -31 0 -978 -85 -308 -124 0 -1167 -126 -423 -81 0 -1496 -187 -564 -126 0 -2090 -291 -696 -143 0 -2380 -331 -793 -142 0 -2358 -328 -786 -150 0 -2233 -342 -839 -189 0 -2813 -431 -1056 -190 0 -2835 -434 -1065 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... S ugar........................................................................................ Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ -42 -16 -1169 -89 -503 -47 -33 -1081 -113 -761 -75 -44 -1000 -133 -913 -117 -70 -876 -207 -1429 -133 -80 -998 -235 -1627 -132 -79 -989 -233 -1612 -137 -81 -966 -243 -1675 -173 -102 -1148 -307 -2110 -174 -103 -1157 -309 -2127 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................. Floor covering m ills ................................................................. -5 -198 -130 -498 -54 -16 -412 -50 -635 -60 -15 -428 -71 -895 -98 -27 -665 -105 -1515 -152 -31 -758 -119 -1725 -174 -30 -751 -118 -1709 -172 -34 -783 -125 -1799 -179 -43 -986 -158 -2266 -226 -43 -994 -159 -2284 -228 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... -538 -14 -601 -39 -55 -481 -24 -1029 -73 -63 -488 -178 -2460 -134 -32 -713 -349 -4618 -199 -50 -811 -397 -5258 -227 -57 -804 -393 -5210 -225 -56 -959 -408 -5452 -298 -59 -1209 -514 -6869 -376 -74 -1218 -518 -6923 -379 -75 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. -781 -441 -7 -130 -52 -891 -544 -4 -150 -127 -1310 -730 -4 -216 -128 -2087 -896 -5 -373 -199 -2377 -1020 -5 -425 -227 -2355 -1010 -5 -421 -224 -2314 -1095 -6 -491 -234 -3242 -1380 -7 -618 -295 -3267 -1391 -7 -623 -297 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... -1402 -15 -2 -87 -13 -1703 -3 -5 -111 -33 -1785 -6 -12 -169 -56 -2774 -9 -19 -250 -87 -3158 -11 -21 -285 -99 -3130 -11 -21 -282 -98 -3165 -11 -22 -295 -102 -3987 -14 -28 -371 -129 -4018 -14 -28 -374 -130 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... -302 -39 -85 -19 -57 -579 -69 -137 -48 -97 -1013 -181 -170 -122 -202 -1613 -369 -259 -285 -314 -1837 -420 -295 -325 -357 -1820 -416 -292 -322 -354 -1811 -403 -310 -344 -374 -2281 -507 -391 -434 -471 -2299 -511 -394 -437 -475 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... Tires and inner tu b e s .............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b es.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ -69 -19 -1 -1056 -36 -116 -48 -87 -210 -155 -136 -31 -1 -1309 -114 -181 -100 -119 -454 -223 -269 -46 -2 -2873 -428 -410 -321 -157 -1064 -336 -468 -72 -3 -1645 -957 -637 -812 -244 -1581 -522 -533 -81 -3 -1873 -1090 -726 -925 -278 -1800 -595 -528 -81 -3 -1856 -1080 -719 -916 -275 -1784 -589 -546 -84 -3 -1650 -1170 -755 -988 -287 -1653 -615 -688 -106 -4 -2078 -1474 -952 -1245 -362 -2083 -774 -693 -107 -4 -2095 -1486 -959 -1255 -365 -2099 -780 See footnotes at end of table. 87 Table A-10. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... -24 -43 -128 -97 -1112 -29 -39 -214 -161 -2165 -94 -74 -271 -197 -3437 -164 -115 -421 -306 -5062 -187 -131 -480 -349 -5764 -185 -130 -475 -345 -5711 -198 -135 -496 -360 -7258 -249 -235 -624 -454 -9144 -251 -237 -629 -458 -9216 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... -23 -443 -239 -775 -12 -48 -1008 -340 -1347 -9 -60 -472 -587 -1533 -16 -93 -677 -912 -2847 -25 -106 -771 -1039 -3242 -28 -105 -764 -1029 -3212 -28 -110 -826 -1074 -3436 -29 -138 -1041 -1353 -4329 -37 -139 -1049 -1363 -4363 -37 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. -7 -24 -62 -55 -124 -34 -48 -114 -63 -160 -68 -80 -173 -61 -301 -106 -124 -269 -95 -468 -120 -142 -306 -108 -533 -119 -140 -303 -107 -528 -124 -148 -317 -112 -558 -257 -187 -399 -142 -703 -259 -188 -402 -143 -708 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. -128 -39 -241 -35 -15 -288 -116 -401 -127 -32 -577 -248 -456 -177 -128 -701 -479 -509 -379 -219 -799 -545 -807 -432 -249 -791 -541 -800 -428 -247 -924 -629 -634 -494 -280 -1164 -792 -1251 -622 -352 -1173 -798 -1261 -627 -355 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... -91 -184 -65 -1 -72 -407 -507 -304 -3 -183 -297 -875 -534 -7 -548 -462 -1360 -1275 -10 -982 -526 -1548 -1452 -11 -1119 -521 -1534 -1438 -11 -1108 -551 -1619 -1588 -12 -1254 -694 -2039 -2001 -16 -1581 -699 -2055 -2016 -16 -1593 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. -55 -3 -28 -51 -89 -93 -18 -151 -110 -182 -186 -77 -316 -224 -505 -345 -242 -657 -348 -1048 -392 -276 -748 -396 -1193 -389 -273 -742 -393 -1182 -522 -402 -871 -415 -1387 -657 -507 -1097 -523 -1747 -662 -510 -1106 -527 -1761 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... -79 -225 -25 -59 -61 -120 -594 -47 -197 -178 -172 -2132 -97 -288 -572 -352 -5253 -259 -695 -1253 -401 -5982 -295 -792 -1427 -397 -5927 -292 -784 -1414 -400 -7541 -341 -955 -2086 -503 -9501 -429 -1203 -2628 -507 -9575 -433 -1212 -2649 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft....................................... .............................................. 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. -75 -731 -129 -14 -2 -140 -2963 -384 -73 -9 -321 -8459 -562 -171 -26 -732 -16364 -1263 -341 -95 -834 -18634 -1210 -388 -108 -826 -18463 -1199 -384 -107 -991 -17199 -1874 -419 -172 -1248 -21670 -1794 -528 -217 -1258 -21839 -1808 -532 -218 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ -121 -6 -37 -13 -58 -217 -49 -77 -28 -118 -1112 -146 -119 -66 -225 -1810 -227 -286 -176 -528 -2061 -258 -326 -201 -601 -2042 -256 -323 -199 -596 -2005 -271 -387 -246 -697 -2526 -341 -488 -310 -878 -2545 -344 -492 -312 -885 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... -101 -120 -310 -218 -143 -44 0 0 -85 -477 -164 -219 -412 -363 -366 -29 0 0 -110 -801 -383 -289 -564 -705 -513 -57 0 0 -148 -947 -937 -353 -876 -1593 -843 -89 0 0 -230 -1418 -1067 -402 -998 -1814 -960 -101 0 0 -262 -1615 -1057 -398 -989 -1798 -951 -100 0 0 -260 -1600 -1307 -481 -1045 -1969 -1093 -104 0 0 -274 -1617 -1647 -606 -1317 -2480 -1378 -132 0 0 -346 -2037 -1660 -611 -1328 -2500 -1388 -133 0 0 -348 -2053 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... ....... Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadpasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 0 0 0 0 -9 0 0 0 0 -19 0 0 0 0 -67 0 0 0 0 -139 0 0 0 0 -158 0 0 0 0 -157 0 0 0 0 -176 0 0 0 0 -222 0 0 0 0 -224 See footnotes at end of table. 88 Table A-10. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual Sector 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... -131 0 1520 0 0 -168 0 2336 0 0 -347 0 2993 0 0 -719 0 5762 0 0 -819 0 6561 0 0 -812 0 6501 0 0 -884 0 7425 0 0 -1114 0 9354 0 0 -1123 0 9427 0 0 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 0 0 -73 0 0 0 0 -122 0 0 0 0 -165 0 0 0 0 -256 0 0 0 0 -292 0 0 0 0 -289 0 0 0 0 -304 0 0 0 0 -383 0 0 0 0 -386 0 0 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 0 0 0 -1 -6 0 0 0 -1 -8 0 0 0 -2 -10 0 0 0 -3 -16 0 0 0 -3 -18 0 0 0 -3 -18 0 0 0 -3 -19 0 0 0 -4 -24 0 0 0 -4 -24 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -12 0 0 0 0 -15 0 0 0 0 -17 0 0 0 0 -17 0 0 0 0 -18 0 0 0 0 -23 0 0 0 0 -23 0 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 0 0 0 -13 0 0 0 0 -20 0 0 0 0 -30 0 0 0 0 -38 0 0 0 0 -43 0 0 0 0 -43 0 0 0 0 -46 0 0 0 0 -58 0 0 0 0 -58 0 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 0 0 0 -11499 0 0 0 0 -14166 0 0 0 0 -15843 0 0 0 0 -22848 0 0 0 0 -26016 0 0 0 0 -25778 0 0 0 0 -31151 0 0 0 0 -38901 0 0 0 0 -39205 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. -606 0 0 -1480 0 0 -1128 0 0 -2268 0 0 -1130 0 0 -3521 0 0 -2785 0 0 -10137 0 0 -3172 0 0 -11543 0 0 -3143 0 0 -11437 0 0 -4300 0 0 -14989 0 0 -5418 0 0 -18884 0 0 -5460 0 0 -19032 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 89 TabUe A -1 1. G o v e rn m e n t p u rch a s es , s e le c te d h is to ric a l and p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Actual Projected Sector 1985 alternatives 1963 1967 1990 alternatives 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II T otal.......................................................................................... 197379 247969 252817 318653 318297 316617 338332 339410 340667 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 44 5 492 -541 -31 55 7 -874 -535 437 72 4 22 -799 13 62 9 337 -415 402 63 9 328 -404 405 63 9 313 -384 398 68 9 343 -585 470 71 9 334 -569 483 71 9 318 -541 474 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... -749 49 7 0 385 -809 76 -70 0 156 -525 79 -25 0 -7 -483 64 -15 0 0 -470 63 -15 0 0 -448 63 -15 0 0 -561 67 -23 0 0 -546 68 -22 0 0 -519 68 -23 0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 85 0 462 36 7218 99 0 589 41 7878 70 0 586 47 9422 87 97 572 38 10096 85 94 575 38 10164 85 90 574 38 10109 89 165 573 31 10971 86 161 604 34 11393 88 153 605 34 11439 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 1349 4437 356 354 242 4547 5130 478 911 297 2108 3652 853 652 415 1804 4725 837 589 406 1761 4595 857 606 426 1769 4545 855 601 426 1990 4788 939 661 452 1873 4537 993 704 492 1976 4656 992 698 491 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products ................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 55 110 8 53 -5 123 13.1 10 57 3 104 160 19 70 -7 133 153 13 61 -9 133 164 14 67 -9 131 163 14 67 -9 157 182 15 68 -7 160 202 16 76 -8 158 202 16 76 -8 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .................................. ....................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 44 134 1 75 41 52 147 2 125 61 56 222 1 83 82 53 221 -1 158 65 59 237 -2 160 64 59 235 -2 160 64 66 240 -1 173 74 74 267 -2 179 74 73 267 -2 182 75 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ Logging.................................................................................... 22 0 166 99 0 18 0 227 392 0 14 0 215 195 1 19 0 374 213 0 20 0 462 211 0 20 0 460 211 0 26 0 407 249 0 27 0 506 244 0 27 0 511 252 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 290 396 6 65 363 270 700 33 148 594 112 423 13 108 622 98 381 16 151 828 98 382 16 149 826 98 381 16 146 821 101 378 19 168 920 104 390 18 167 947 105 391 18 165 945 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 362 35 4 673 546 556 70 8 973 782 679 58 3 1033 1189 813 60 5 1137 1376 822 63 5 1112 1374 „ i> 815 63 5 1111 1365 825 62 5 1309 1461 856 66 5 1319 1505 853 66 5 1321 1504 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 1169 91 279 19 17 1049 114 950 -9 31 937 107 429 21 15 1395 147 684 25 55 1364 148 669 24 53 1355 147 669 24 54 1769 146 714 23 62 1706 152 680 21 58 1748 151 708 23 61 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs....................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tubes .............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b es.............................. Plastic products................................... .rz................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 379 158 143 1916 156 108 168 1 10 82 654 281 150 2578 239 337 257 4 25 157 1040 223 171 2599 130 267 244 1 18 184 2281 309 190 2588 199 333 343 2 19 205 2291 309 188 3197 210 353 347 2 21 208 2287 307 187 3193 208 352 345 2 21 207 2679 345 205 2677 212 353 373 3 22 226 2803 352 207 3408 228 375 383 3 24 235 2807 352 208 3475 228 383 387 3 25 236 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. See footnotes at end of table. 90 T a b le A -1 1 . G o v e rn m e n t p u rc h a s e s , s e le c te d h is to ric a l an d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 199 0 — G o n tin u e d (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 1761 172 46 332 1064 2132 166 55 393 840 2245 134 48 333 447 1908 132 57 333 437 1923 132 59 336 439 1918 131 58 335 438 1839 137 63 355 433 1933 141 65 363 440 1934 142 65 367 449 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 155 590 30 -234 14 202 705 50 -196 23 520 402 26 -38 18 498 418 39 -22 16 499 414 38 -21 16 499 409 38 -22 16 477 439 45 -35 17 494 439 42 -31 17 500 440 44 -37 17 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 180 2413 51 41 117. 191 3199 191 44 255 154 2797 84 36 250 134 3393 139 43 303 136 3392 135 15 303 136 3379 133 14 302 150 3565 170 54 363 154 3670 163 24 363 155 3685 165 24 369 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 367 314 46 461 145 661 621 75 635 205 638 413 58 292 156 689 553 88 431 180 672 541 93 428 179 669 535 93 427 178 687 615 98 463 196 676 596 104 463 194 688 607 105 473 197 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 163 37 434 177 497 242 78 454 290 486 160 81 304 237 598 251 137 411 257 1748 245 133 407 262 1702 242 132 404 262 1679 287 159 471 291 2498 278 152 458 302 2390 282 156 469 306 2441 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................. Household appliances............................................................. 199 273 459 311 47 360 425 602 546 75 379 493 550 313 73 531 656 931 477 103 522 659 916 467 106 509 659 916 465 106 625 759 1180 653 116 620 778 1141 629 122 608 786 1183 649 123 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 486 98 173 5839 388 556 154 250 6759 696 493 124 205 5414 646 467 206 306 7877 1167 470 201 297 7674 1143 467 198 297 7671 1139 503 260 341 8847 1319 515 253 322 8359 1255 517 253 334 8729 1304 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair .......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 209 2162 11481 1485 65 331 2581 10475 1870 80 173 1788 8050 1622 107 393 3241 13881 2203 86 391 3296 12911 2146 86 390 3293 12946 2140 86 478 3775 15507 2679 93 470 3835 13908 2529 98 483 3925 14634 2632 98 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 6 10 665 144 40 9 13 744 275 79 19 21 687 232 124 7 24 1366 491 205 13 25 1344 491 200 13 25 1342 487 194 6 26 1568 565 283 12 28 1519 575 275 12 28 1570 577 270 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g oods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 312 9 5 77 209 638 435 1798 391 690 565 117 12 96 327 897 657 2813 881 1541 610 37 -3 180 453 631 726 2325 610 1140 852 62 9 169 513 711 650 2465 920 1693 849 60 10 169 485 704 642 2452 900 1670 845 60 11 169 480 702 642 2445 904 1666 929 79 18 180 562 730 684 2671 1054 1875 929 74 19 187 540 724 694 2655 1001 1825 944 78 20 188 540 739 696 2713 1053 1881 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 25 1 0 859 1284 37 0 0 1283 1879 36 0 0 2082 2322 46 0 0 3392 2345 47 0 0 3410 2362 47 0 0 3399 2364 49 0 0 3888 2453 49 0 0 3931 2518 50 0 0 4004 2552 See footnotes at end of table. 91 Talbte A -11. G overnm ent purchases, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to IS iO ^-C o ntin yed (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1990 alternatives 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding pu b lic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale tra d e ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 353 18 3459 -1155 546 367 85 4441 -1224 726 687 104 3968 -1323 618 725 148 4677 -1328 553 726 151 4726 -1254 565 725 151 4710 -1256 562 768 162 5118 -1597 555 787 158 5228 -1593 600 790 163 5293 -1568 593 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking................................................ ................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 1780 152 445 0 937 1787 178 487 0 1274 2514 159 514 0 2079 3575 141 608 0 2610 3584 171 613 0 2630 3550 171 613 0 2613 3584 127 642 0 2709 3758 173 670 0 2830 3720 173 672 0 2821 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 723 327 0 4005 288 843 340 0 4727 323 701 618 0 5139 492 1161 639 0 8732 524 1178 634 0 8695 524 1173 633 0 8660 525 1133 697 0 9983 543 1153 716 0 9983 569 1179 718 0 10160 571 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 2924 285 108 -435 368 2785 454 163 -391 691 4149 601 128 -429 1630 5023 603 202 -361 2567 5056 627 200 -351 2580 5038 625 200 -349 2576 5414 628 229 -368 2690 5588 670 222 -378 2818 5610 674 230 -368 2823 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations.......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 701 546 1872 7 409 1428 1206 2347 11 718 2645 3344 1662 10 983 4500 4616 2031 22 1198 4521 4652 2043 22 1201 4517 4646 1985 22 1190 4878 5149 2189 24 1268 5108 5446 2183 25 1295 5123 5441 2158 25 1299 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 4 0 62 2593 0 13 0 52 4029 0 3 0 59 3508 0 6 0 64 4045 0 6 0 67 3934 0 6 0 67 3926 0 8 0 63 3404 0 8 0 68 3211 0 8 0 68 3340 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 1065 12850 100232 -1172 0 0 1022 16933 121953 -501 0 0 1400 13577 131948 -203 0 0 1303 14356 161167 -785 0 0 1284 14518 161167 -764 0 0 1295 14449 159998 -728 0 0 1637 14531 167585 -1167 0 0 1595 15255 167585 -1137 0 0 1687 15275 165869 -1083 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 92 Table A -12. Federal Government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual Sector 1985 alternatives 1963 1967 1990 alternatives 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II T otal.......................................................................................... 101953 124885 102125 128416 126218 124537 139910 134910 136166 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 3 4 492 -551 -146 4 4 -874 -549 312 2 2 22 -820 -179 3 3 337 -427 151 3 3 328 -415 147 3 3 313 -396 140 2 3 343 -596 207 2 3 334 -581 201 2 3 318 -554 192 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... -752 27 7 0 385 -813 21 -70 0 156 -533 16 -25 0 -7 -491 19 -15 0 0 -478 19 -15 0 0 -456 19 -15 0 0 -570 19 -23 0 0 -556 18 -22 0 0 -529 19 -23 0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 68 0 131 0 2235 71 0 125 0 2396 47 0 61 -2 2079 61 97 70 -1 3043 59 94 68 -1 2960 59 90 66 -1 2905 61 165 71 -4 3533 58 161 68 -4 3364 60 153 68 -4 3409 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s....................................................... 1340 4437 17 105 9 4537 5130 65 629 23 2090 3652 28 192 11 1796 4725 47 120 18 1745 4595 46 117 17 1753 4545 44 111 16 1983 4788 57 143 21 1859 4537 55 139 21 1962 4656 53 133 20 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 17 5 1 0 1 79 9 1 1 1 39 4 1 1 1 72 7 1 1 1 70 7 1 1 1 68 7 1 1 1 91 8 1 1 1 88 8 1 1 1 86 8 1 1 1 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 3 39 0 41 5 5 32 0 82 11 2 32 0 25 13 4 38 0 46 21 4 38 0 44 21 4 36 0 44 21 6 30 0 57 26 6 29 0 53 25 6 29 0 56 26 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ Logging..................................................................................... 10 0 101 83 0 15 0 162 369 0 8 0 131 145 0 14 0 201 147 0 14 0 196 142 0 13 0 193 142 0 21 0 231 178 0 20 0 220 168 0 20 0 225 175 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household............................... 53 49 6 28 75 28 93 33 90 144 17 84 13 65 131 19 102 16 95 173 18 100 16 93 169 18 98 16 90 164 24 107 19 108 182 22 102 18 104 175 23 103 18 102 173 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 127 14 0 107 243 217 42 2 62 377 142 19 1 38 349 203 22 2 78 390 197 22 2 76 380 191 21 2 75 371 227 21 2 99 410 218 20 2 94 393 215 20 2 96 393 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 1080 19 203 18 17 948 31 858 -10 31 701 16 332 20 15 1110 29 626 24 55 1079 28 608 24 53 1070 27 608 24 54 1449 37 655 22 62 1371 36 616 21 58 1413 35 644 22 61 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs...................................................................................:.... Cleaning and toilet preparations........................................•.... Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tu b e s.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 91 44 52 1056 71 17 37 0 6 21 141 91 -24 1420 126 228 87 4 21 31 154 49 21 905 70 144 71 1 8 36 262 97 52 988 99 204 132 2 12 48 254 94 51 1544 96 198 128 2 12 46 250 92 50 1541 94 197 127 2 12 45 320 122 68 997 107 217 150 3 16 55 305 116 64 1587 103 205 143 3 15 52 308 117 65 1654 103 212 1-46 3 15 53 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. See footnotes at end of table. 93 Talbl® A -12. P©til®r@ll G overnm ent purefoases, total!, selected historical and pro je cte d years, 1963 to 19©0=C®initoiniyed (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1990 alternatives 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 335 5 2 75 618 276 6 4 76 464 202 13 11 56 139 235 25 16 102 186 229 25 16 99 181 224 24 16 98 181 264 33 20 129 195 252 31 19 122 184 253 32 19 126 192 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 11 152 23 -234 9 89 118 47 -196 16 91 166 24 - -39 8 118 227 38 -22 10 114 220 37 -21 10 115 215 37 -22 10 118 250 43 -35 10 110 239 40 -31 10 116 240 43 -37 10 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware............................. 10 341 39 20 27 12 514 181 25 103 25 604 72 9 74 40 849 129 16 147 39 825 126 16 143 39 812 123 16 142 55 955 159 20 203 52 908 152 20 192 53 923 153 20 198 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.......................... ................... Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 94 262 15 267 101 278 547 36 445 134 230 327 14 140 85 367 458 26 217 123 357 445 26 211 120 354 439 25 210 119 386 516 39 250 141 365 490 37 235 134 377 501 38 245 137 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 134 29 349 78 453 203 62 390 143 412 119 65 222 59 509 205 120 357 90 1417 199 117 347 87 1378 196 116 344 87 1356 238 141 419 102 2147 227 133 397 96 2036 230 138 408 100 2087 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................ Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 104 53 286 255 18 203 118 437 488 18 190 82 313 237 14 324 151 677 374 24 315 146 658 364 24 302 146 657 361 24 400 190 919 544 31 387 179 863 513 29 375 187 905 533 30 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 67 71 173 5724 374 83 106 250 6612 673 100 71 204 5260 625 141 145 305 7643 1145 137 141 297 7430 1113 134 138 296 7426 1109 168 191 340 8542 1298 160 182 321 8035 1224 162 183 334 8405 1272 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 169 1281 11479 1479 8 282 1523 10473 1863 8 125 644 8046 1604 3 264 1712 13879 2194 9 256 1664 12907 2133 9 255 1660 12942 2127 9 347 2181 15506 2671 13 327 2053 13905 2517 13 341 2143 14631 2620 13 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 1 4 519 75 28 1 4 561 164 56 1 3 499 105 101 1 10 1065 191 177 1 10 1036 186 172 1 10 1034 182 166 1 14 1237 242 252 1 14 1164 230 244 1 14 1215 233 238 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g oods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 185 3 -3 5 86 309 36 922 334 507 363 112 -2 11 173 545 43 1771 821 1231 280 29 -22 5 103 323 39 1147 513 827 441 55 -4 11 189 435 52 1389 816 1246 429 53 -4 11 184 423 50 1351 793 1211 426 53 -4 11 180 421 50 1344 , 797 1207 518 71 3 16 239 456 55 1621 950 1418 490 67 2 16 229 431 52 1529 890 1336 505 70 3 16 229 445 54 1587 941 1391 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation...............................................;............ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 15 0 0 409 216 23 0 0 647 294 16 0 0 858 508 26 0 0 1666 622 25 0 0 1620 605 25 0 0 1609 607 29 0 0 2106 695 28 0 0 1988 652 29 0 0 2061 686 See footnotes at end of table. 94 Table A-12. Federal Government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale tra d e ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 65 49 1819 290 -8 53 53 2272 310 -56 80 56 1367 368 11 93 94 1957 575 5 91 91 1903 559 5 90 91 1887 557 3 109 111 2242 685 -2 103 104 2121 646 1 105 109 2186 671 -6 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 733 -10 93 0 356 680 6 67 0 528 756 -20 -3 0 445 734 -17 44 0 597 715 -16 42 0 581 681 -16 42 0 564 832 -12 79 0 649 811 -11 75 0 625 773 -11 77 0 616 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 616 36 0 2570 12 887 -10 0 2919 8 609 92 0 3015 18 810 87 0 4727 30 788 85 0 4597 30 783 84 0 4562 30 837 109 0 5595 31 791 104 0 5287 30 817 106 0 5464 31 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services.............................. :.... Doctors’ and dentists’ services............................................. 939 53 81 76 94 1238 101 121 98 67 658 129 97 47 204 1195 144 150 63 260 1163 140 146 62 253 1145 138 146 64 249 1491 176 172 67 299 1419 167 162 60 284 1441 171 170 70 289 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffic e ............................................................................... 190 62 1846 1 206 256 59 2299 1 432 321 92 1669 1 424 484 119 1953 2 546 471 116 1900 2 531 467 110 1843 2 520 552 127 2131 2 595 523 123 2049 2 568 538 118 2024 2 572 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 4 0 31 2587 0 13 0 13 4021 0 3 0 17 3496 0 6 0 26 4039 0 6 0 25 3927 0 6 0 24 3918 0 8 0 24 3397 0 8 0 23 3202 0 8 0 23 3332 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry.............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment ............................................. -120 2977 47515 -1172 0 0 -456 2347 55716 -501 0 0 363 2164 49329 -203 0 0 619 3044 48987 -785 0 0 601 2962 48987 -764 0 0 612 2892 47818 -728 0 0 1001 3588 49785 -1167 0 0 923 3427 49785 -1137 0 0 1015 3447 48068 -1083 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add fa totals because of rounding. 95 Table A-13. Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1972 1967 Low High II High I Low High I High II T otal.......................................................................................... 80558 98238 73512, 92913 91214 92297 102903 98405 102772 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c................................................... 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 7 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... -1 25 17 0 372 7 19 -70 0 89 -1 12 -25 0 -8 1 15 -15 0 1 1 15 -15 0 1 1 15 -15 0 1 3 15 -23 0 -2 3 14 -22 0 -2 3 15 -23 0 -2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 55 0 32 0 1553 59 0 13 0 1330 36 0 11 -2 981 49 0 27 -1 1637 47 0 27 -1 1591 48 0 27 -1 1601 50 0 40 -4 2056 46 0 37 -4 1924 49 0 39 -4 2039 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance .................................... ............................................ Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 1302 3158 8 0 0 4482 3004 9 0 0 2068 2336 4 0 0 1730 3233 6 0 0 1681 3142 6 0 0 1692 3162 6 0 0 1912 3347 7 0 0 1789 3133 7 0 0 1896 3319 7 0 0 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 6 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 1 17 0 0 0 1 17 0 0 0 1 17 0 0 0 1 26 0 0 0 1 25 0 0 0 1 26 0 0 0 1 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................. Tobaccd manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. Floor covering m ills ............. ................................................... 0 0 0 41 3 0 13 0 82 7 0 -5 0 24 8 0 10 0 45 15 0 10 0 43 15 0 10 0 44 15 0 12 0 56 19 0 12 0 52 18 0 12 0 55 19 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ Logging.................................................................................... 6 0 54 72 0 7 0 105 349 0 -1 0 82 125 0 4 0 133 123 0 4 0 129 119 0 4 0 130 120 0 10 0 155 154 0 10 0 145 144 0 10 0 154 153 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 12 16 6 12 23 10 33 26 30 48 10 42 9 15 46 12 61 10 27 62 12 59 10 27 60 12 59 10 27 60 19 64 12 33 63 17 60 12 31 59 18 63 12 33 62 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 52 11 0 53 270 89 33 1 36 225 33 10 1 16 148 59 12 1 49 167 57 12 1 47 163 57 12 1 48 164 73 10 1 69 184 68 10 1 65 172 72 10 1 68 182 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 937 4 147 18 17 600 6 763 -10 31 507 6 285 20 15 804 8 550 24 55 781 8 534 24 53 786 8 538 24 54 1072 9 573 22 62 1003 9 537 21 58 1063 9 568 22 61 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. D rugs....................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tubes .............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tubes............................... Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 16 34 4 823 59 9 31 0 5 11 87 48 5 1053 82 211 69 0 17 13 80 27 12 703 37 120 42 0 6 18 146 47 27 741 50 164 90 0 7 24 142 45 27 1303 48 159 88 0 7 23 143 46 27 1312 49 160 88 0 7 23 183 56 37 740 51 171 104 0 10 29 172 52 34 1’336 47 160 98 0 9 27 182 55 36 1416 50 170 103 0 9 29 See footnotes at end of table. 96 Tabs© A-13. Federal G overnm ent purchases, detense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—-Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 59 1 1 73 420 38 1 2 57 450 77 8 3 34 105 113 17 6 72 154 110 17 6 70 150 111 17 6 70 151 133 23 7 95 170 124 22 7 89 159 132 23 7 94 169 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 7 109 23 -29 9 85 29 47 -24 16 88 63 23 -76 8 112 102 38 -46 10 109 99 37 -44 10 110 99 37 -45 10 112 117 43 -74 10 105 110 40 -69 10 111 116 43 -73 10 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 5 82 31 15 10 6 247 121 18 59 18 310 41 4 37 30 494 73 8 99 29 480 71 8 96 29 483 71 8 97 42 587 90 11 152 39 550 84 10 142 42 582 89 11 151 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 47 215 13 230 87 228 450 29 414 99 152 191 9 114 52 268 293 18 182 84 261 284 18 176 81 262 286 18 178 82 291 344 29 211 97 272 322 28 198 91 288 341 29 209 96 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c..................................... ........... Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 93 13 305 71 332 135 39 298 127 221 66 44 160 46 248 117 91 255 73 828 114 89 248 71 805 115 89 249 72 810 146 109 296 86 1475 137 102 277 80 1381 145 109 294 85 1463 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 20 51 236 225 10 22 107 343 408 12 21 63 251 169 9 43 126 592 278 18 41 122 576 270 18 42 123 579 272 18 57 163 827 438 23 53 153 774 410 22 56 162 820 434 23 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 33 36 155 5155 329 43 58 220 5793 555 52 29 178 4427 456 75 66 257 6693 922 73 64 250 6504 896 73 64 251 6545 902 95 90 281 7515 1067 89 84 263 7034 999 94 89 278 7451 1058 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................ 136 1181 9968 1343 6 240 1236 9434 1599 4 92 455 7422 1408 1 210 1438 13012 1834 6 204 1398 12063 1783 6 205 1407 12138 1794 6 290 1874 14551 2223 10 271 1753 12974 2081 10 287 1858 13745 2204 10 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 1 1 392 38 15 1 2 461 112 20 1 1 368 44 29 1 6 903 97 47 1 6 878 95 46 1 6 883 95 46 1 10 1063 134 63 1 10 995 125 59 1 10 1054 133 63 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware ............................................................ Musical instruments and sporting go o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 108 1 3 5 54 210 19 675 323 389 300 111 2 7 76 404 33 1348 820 1020 206 26 3 3 41 245 29 913 505 645 327 52 8 7 82 335 42 1089 802 1025 318 50 8 7 80 326 40 1059 780 996 320 51 8 7 80 328 41 1065 784 1002 382 68 11 10 107 350 45 1307 935 1193 357 64 10 10 100 328 42 1224 875 1117 378 67 11 10 106 347 44 1296 927 1183 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 13 0 0 349 401 18 0 0 443 284 12 0 0 607 404 20 0 0 1263 592 19 0 0 1228 576 20 0 0 1235 579 22 0 0 1682 650 21 0 0 1574 609 22 0 0 1668 645 See footnotes at end of table. 97 Table A -13. Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale tra d e ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 44 34 1458 218 -91 38 39 1715 234 -130 54 52 899 274 -32 65 83 1428 465 -49 63 81 1388 452 -47 64 82 1396 454 -48 77 96 1662 559 -65 72 90 1556 523 -61 76 95 1648 554 -64 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 5 0 42 0 108 3 0 25 0 159 3 0 12 0 154 6 0 36 0 195 6 0 35 0 190 6 0 36 0 191 8 0 55 0 208 8 0 51 0 194 8 0 54 0 206 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 417 15 0 2044 6 634 12 0 1877 3 462 51 0 2047 17 622 55 0 3518 29 604 53 0 3419 29 608 54 0 3441 29 638 71 0 4274 30 597 66 0 4000 29 633 70 0 4237 30 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 404 32 73 92 15 518 80 112 129 52 394 87 85 70 122 715 92 135 111 152 695 90 132 108 148 699 90 132 109 149 892 117 158 129 184 835 109 147 120 173 885 116 156 128 183 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 67 40 791 1 149 101 5 818 1 312 217 3 390 1 209 345 7 620 2 275 335 7 602 2 267 337 7 606 2 269 401 10 721 2 311 376 10 675 2 291 398 10 715 2 308 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 2 0 21 2186 0 9 0 8 3413 0 3 0 13 2919 0 3 0 13 3413 0 3 0 13 3317 0 3 0 13 3338 0 4 0 10 2815 0 4 0 10 2635 0 4 0 10 .2791 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. -241 1358 37898 0 0 0 -297 775 45842 0 0 0 20 636 35552 0 0 0 753 1360 32473 0 0 0 732 1322 32473 0 0 0 736 1330 33190 0 0 0 1358 1832 32719 0 0 0 1271 1715 32719 0 0 0 1347 1816 33185 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 98 Table A-14. Federal G overnm ent purchases, nondefens®, seleeted historieal and projeeted v©®rs, 19S3 t© 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 High I Low High II Low High I High II T ota l.......................................................................................... 21395 26647 28613 35503 35004 32240 37007 36506 33395 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton........................................................................................ Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 3 4 492 -551 -148 4 4 -874 -549 308 2 2 22 -820 -182 3 3 337 -427 146 3 3 328 -415 142 3 3 313 -396 135 2 3 343 -596 199 2 3 334 -581 194 2 3 318 -554 185 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining ................................................ 9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... -751 2 -10 0 14 -820 2 -1 0 67 -532 4 0 0 1 -492 4 0 0 -1 -479 4 0 0 -1 -457 4 0 0 -1 -573 4 0 0 2 -558 4 0 0 2 -532 4 0 0 2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 13 0 99 0 682 12 0 112 0 1067 11 0 50 0 1098 13 97 43 0 1406 12 94 42 0 1369 12 90 40 0 1305 12 165 32 0 1477 11 161 31 0 1439 11 153 29 0 1371 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 38 1279 9 105 9 56 2127 56 629 23 22 1316 24 192 11 66 1492 41 120 18 64 1453 40 117 17 61 1384 38 111 16 71 1441 49 143 21 70 1404 48 139 21 66 1337 46 133 20 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar...................................... ................................................. Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 12 5 1 0 0 73 9 1 1 0 35 4 1 1 0 55 7 1 1 0 54 7 1 1 0 51 7 1 1 0 65 8 1 1 0 63 8 1 1 0 60 8 1 1 0 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 3 39 0 0 2 5 19 0 0 4 2 37 0 1 4 4 28 0 1 6 4 28 0 1 6 4 26 0 1 6 6 18 0 1 7 6 17 0 1 7 6 17 0 1 7 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... 4 0 46 11 0 7 0 58 20 0 10 0 49 20 0 10 0 69 24 0 10 0 67 23 0 10 0 64 22 0 11 0 77 24 0 10 0 75 24 0 10 0 71 22 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. S a w m ills a n d p la n in g m i l l s ............................................................................. 41 18 7 6 6 Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 33 0 17 53 60 6 60 96 42 5 50 85 42 6 68 112 41 6 66 109 6 39 6 63 104 5 43 6 75 120 5 42 6 73 117 5 40 6 69 111 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products......................................................................... Paperboard.............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c............................................ ...... 76 3 0 54 -27 127 9 1 26 152 110 9 1 22 201 144 10 1 29 223 140 10 1 28 217 134 10 1 27 207 154 11 1 30 227 150 10 1 30 221 143 10 1 28 211 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 144 15 56 0 0 349 25 95 0 0 194 9 47 0 0 306 21 76 0 0 298 20 74 0 0 284 19 71 0 0 377 28 82 0 0 368 28 80 0 0 350 26 76 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tu b e s .............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 75 10 48 233 13 9 6 0 54 43 -29 368 44 17 18 4 74 22 9 202 33 24 29 1 116 50 25 247 49 40 42 2 113 49 24 241 48 39 41 2 107 47 23 229 45 37 39 2 136 66 31 -257 57 46 46 3 133 64 30 251 55 45 45 3 127 61 29 239 53 43 43 3 See footnotes at end of table. 99 Tab!© A - 14. F e d e ra l G o v e rn m e n t p u rch a s es , n o n d e fe n s e , s e le c te d h is to ric a l a n d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 199 0 —-C on tin ued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Actual Projected Sector 1985 alternatives 1963 1967 Low 59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 60. Glass ........................................................................................ 1990 alternatives 1972 High I High II Low High I High II 1 10 4 18 3 19 5 24 5 23 5 22 6 26 6 26 6 24 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products .......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 276 4 1 3 199 238 5 3 19 14 125 5 8 22 35 122 8 10 30 32 119 8 10 30 32 113 8 10 28 30 131 9 13 34 25 128 9 12 33 25 122 9 12 31 23 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 4 43 0 -205 0 4 89 0 -173 0 4 103 0 38 0 5 125 0 24 0 5 122 0 23 0 5 116 0 22 0 5 133 0 39 0 5 130 0 38 0 5 124 0 36 0 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 5 259 8 5 17 6 267 60 7 44 8 294 31 5 37 10 355 56 8 48 10 345 55 8 47 10 329 52 8 45 13 367 69 9 51 12 358 68 9 50 12 341 64 9 48 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 47 48 2 38 14 50 97 7 31 34 79 136 5 26 34 99 165 8 36 40 97 161 8 35 39 92 153 8 33 37 96 172 9 39 44 93 168 9 38 43 89 160 9 36 41 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 41 16 44 7 121 68 23 92 16 191 52 21 62 13 261 88 29 102 17 589 85 28 100 16 573 81 27 95 16 546 92 32 123 17 672 90 31 120 16 655 86 29 114 16 624 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus ................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 84 2 50 31 8 181 12 94 80 6 170 19 62 68 4 281 25 85 96 6 274 24 82 94 6 261 23 78 89 6 343 27 91 106 7 334 27 89 103 7 318 25 85 98 7 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. E le c tr ic lig h tin g a n d w i r i n g ............................................................................ 34 40 48 66 64 35 17 570 44 48 30 820 118 42 27 833 169 79 48 950 223 77 47 925 217 61 74 45 881 207 73 Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 101 60 1027 231 72 98 58 1001 225 68 94 56 954 214 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 33 100 1511 136 2 42 287 1039 264 4 33 189 624 197 2 54 273 867 360 3 53 266 844 350 3 50 254 804 334 3 58 307 955 448 3 56 300 931 437 3 54 285 886 416 3 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 0 3 127 38 13 0 2 100 52 36 0 3 132 61 72 0 4 162 94 130 0 4 158 91 126 0 4 151 87 120 0 4 174 108 189 0 4 169 105 185 0 4 161 100 176 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation............................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation................. .................................................. 77 1 -6 0 32 99 16 248 11 118 63 1 -5 4 96 141 11 422 0 211 74 3 -25 2 62 78 10 234 9 182 114 3 -13 4 107 100 10 300 14 221 111 3 -12 4 105 98 10 293 13 215 106 3 -12 4 100 93 10 279 13 205 136 3 -8 6 132 105 11 314 16 225 133 3 -8 6 129 103 10 306 15 219 126 3 -8 6 123 98 10 291 15 208 116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 117. Transportation services.......................................................... 2 0 5 0 3 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 See footnotes at end of table. 100 Table A-14. Federal Government purchases, nondefense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1967 1963 1972 Low 118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector High I High II Low High I High II 0 61 -185 0 204 10 0 251 104 0 403 30 0 392 29 0 374 28 0 424 45 0 413 44 0 394 42 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 21 15 361 72 83 16 14 557 76 74 26 4 468 94 43 28 10 529 111 54 28 10 515 108 53 26 10 491 103 50 32 15 580 126 63 31 14 565 123 61 29 14 539 117 59 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 729 -10 50 0 248 677 6 42 0 370 754 -21 -15 0 291 728 -17 7 0 402 709 -16 7 0 391 675 -16 7 0 373 824 -12 24 0 442 804 24 0 431 765 -11 22 0 410 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 200 22 0 526 7 253 -22 0 1042 6 147 41 0 968 1 189 33 0 1209 1 184 32 0 1177 1 175 30 0 1121 1 199 38 0 1321 1 194 37 0 1288 1 184 36 0 1226 1 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c............................................ ........ Automobile repair................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services............................................. 535 22 8 -16 79 720 22 9 -30 14 264 41 12 -23 82 481 52 15 -48 109 468 51 14 -47 106 446 48 14 -45 101 599 60 15 -62 114 584 58 14 -60 112 556 56 14 -58 106 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals....................................................... .......................... Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffic e ............................................................................... 123 22 1055 0 57 155 54 1481 0 120 104 89 1279 0 216 140 112 1333 0 271 136 109 1298 0 264 130 104 1237 0 252 151 117 1410 0 284 147 114 1375 0 277 140 108 1309 0 264 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 2 0 10 402 0 4 0 5 607 0 1 0 4 577 0 3 0 13 626 0 3 0 12 609 0 3 0 12 581 0 4 0 14 582 0 4 0 13 568 0 4 0 13 541 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 121 1620 9617 -1172 0 0 -159 1572 9874 -501 0 0 343 1528 13777 -203 0 0 -134 1684 16514 -785 0 0 -131 ' 1639 16514 -764 0 0 -124 1562 14628 -728 0 0 -357 1756 17066 -1167 0 0 -348 1712 17066 -1137 0 0 -331 1631 14883 -1083 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 101 -11 Table A-15. State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Actual Projected 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II T ota l.......................................................................................... 95427 123085 150693 190238 192080 192080 198423 204500 204500 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 41 1 0 9 115 51 3 0 14 125 70 2 0 20 192 59 6 0 12 251 60 6 0 12 258 60 6 0 12 258 66 6 0 12 263 69 6 0 12 282 69 6 0 12 282 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 3 23 0 0 0 4 54 0 0 0 7 63 0 0 0 8 45 0 0 0 8 44 0 0 0 8 44 0 0 0 9 48 0 0 0 9 49 0 0 0 9 49 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 17 0 331 36 4983 28 0 465 41 5482 22 0 525 49 7342 26 0 502 39 7053 26 0 507 39 7203 26 0 507 39 7203 28 0 502 35 7439 29 0 536 38 8030 28 0 536 38 8030 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 9 0 339 249 234 10 0 413 282 274 18 0 825 461 404 8 0 790 469 388 16 0 812 489 409 16 0 812 489 409 7 0 882 518 431 14 0 939 565 471 14 0 939 565 471 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products ................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products................................................ .......... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 38 105 8 53 -6 44 122 9 56 2 64 157 18 70 -9 61 146 12 60 -10 63 156 13 66 -10 63 156 13 66 -10 66 173 14 67 -8 72 194 15 75 -9 72 194 15 75 -9 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. Floor covering m ills ................................................................. 41 94 0 34 36 47 116 2 43 50 55 190 1 58 69 49 183 -1 112 43 55 199 -2 116 43 55 199 -2 116 43 60 210 -1 116 48 68 238 -2 126 49 68 238 -2 126 49 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel .................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c................................. ........... Logging.................................................................................... 12 0 66 15 0 4 0 65 23 0 5 0 84 49 0 5 0 173 67 0 6 0 266 69 0 6 0 266 69 0 5 0 175 71 0 7 0 287 77 0 7 0 287 77 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 236 347 0 37 287 242 607 0 58 450 95 339 0 43 491 79 278 0 56 655 80 283 0 57 657 80 283 0 57 657 77 271 0 60 737 81 288 0 63 771 81 288 0 63 771 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 235 20 3 566 302 339 29 6 911 405 537 40 2 995 839 610 38 3 1059 986 624 41 3 1036 994 624 41 3 1036 994 598 41 3 1210 1050 638 47 4 1225 1112 638 47 4 1225 1112 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 89 72 76 1 0 100 83 92 1 0 236 91 97 1 0 285 118 58 0 0 285 120 60 0 0 285 120 60 0 0 320 108 59 1 0 335 116 64 1 0 335 116 64 1 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. Drugs....................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................ Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... Tires and inner tu b es.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b es.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 287 114 91 860 84 91 131 0 514 190 174 1158 113 109 170 0 886 174 150 1694 60 123 172 0 2020 213 138 1600 100 130 211 0 2037 215 137 1653 114 155 219 0 2037 215 137 1653 114 155 219 0 2360 223 137 1680 105 135 223 0 2499 235 143 1821 126 170 240 0 2499 235 143 1821 126 170 240 0 See footnotes at end of table. 102 Tabs® A-15. State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1967 1963 1972 Low 59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 60. Glass ....................................................................................... 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector High I High II Low High I High II 4 61 4 127 9 148 6 157 9 161 9 161 6 171 9 183 9 183 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 1426 167 44 256 446 1855 160 51 316 376 2043 120 36 278 308 1672 106 41 231 250 1694 107 43 236 258 1694 107 43 236 258 1575 105 43 226 237 1681 110 47 241 257 1681 110 47 241 257 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 145 438 7 0 5 113 588 4 0 7 429 236 3 0 10 381 191 2 0 6 385 194 2 0 6 385 194 2 0 6 360 189 2 0 7 383 200 2 0 7 383 200 2 0 7 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 170 2072 12 21 90 179 2686 10 19 152 129 2193 12 27 176 94 2545 10 27 156 97 2567 10 -1 160 97 2567 10 -1 160 95 2610 11 33 160 102 2762 11 5 170 102 2762 11 5 170 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.......................................... . Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 273 52 32 193 44 382 74 39 190 71 408 86 44 152 71 321 95 61 214 56 315 96 67 217 59 315 96 67 217 59 301 99 59 214 55 311 106 68 228 60 311 106 68 228 60 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 29 8 85 99 43 39 16 64 147 74 42 16 82 179 89 46 16 54 168 331 46 16 60 175 324 46 16 60 175 324 49 19 52 188 351 51 19 62 206 354 51 19 62 206 354 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 95 220 173 55 29 156 307 165 58 57 188 411 237 76 59 208 506 254 103 78 207 513 258 104 82 207 513 258 104 82 225 568 261 109 85 233 599 277 116 93 233 599 277 116 93 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 419 27 1 115 14 473 48 0 146 22 393 53 1 153 21 327 61 1 234 21 333 60 1 245 30 333 60 1 245 30 334 69 1 305 21 355 70 1 324 31 355 70 1 324 31 48 1058 2 7 72 48 1143 4 17 104 130 1529 2 9 77 134 1632 4 13 77 134 1632 4 13 77 131 1594 2 8 80 143 1782 3 12 86 143 1782 3 12 86 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 40 881 ' 2 6 57 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 6 6 146 69 12 8 9 183 111 23 18 18 188 127 23 6 14 301 300 28 12 15 308 305 28 12 15 308 305 28 5 12 331 323 31 11 14 355 344 32 11 14 355 344 32 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 127 6 8 72 123 329 399 876 57 183 202 5 14 85 154 352 614 1043 61 310 331 8 19 176 350 308 687 1178 97 313 411 7 14 157 324 276 598 1076 104 448 419 7 14 158 301 281 592 1101 107 459 419 7 14 158 301 281 592 1102 107 459 412 8 15 164 323 275 629 1050 104 457 439 8 17 172 311 293 642 1126 111 490 439 8 17 172 311 293 642 1126 111 490 116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 117. Transportation services.......................................................... 10 1 15 0 20 0 20 0 21 0 21 0 20 0 22 0 22 0 See footnotes at end of table. 103 Table A-15. State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1967 1963 1972 Low 118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector High I High II Low High I High II 0 450 1068 0 636 1585 0 1224 1814 0 1725 1723 0 1790 1758 0 1790 1758 0 1782 1758 0 1943 1865 0 1943 1865 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale tra d e ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 288 -32 1640 -1445 554 313 32 2169 -1534 782 607 49 2601 -1691 606 632 54 2721 -1903 548 635 60 2823 -1813 559 635 60 2823 -1813 559 660 51 2876 -2282 557 685 54 3107 -2239 599 685 54 3107 -2239 599 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 1047 162 352 0 581 1107 172 420 0 746 1758 179 516 0 1634 2841 158 565 0 2013 2869 187 571 0 2049 2869 187 571 0 2049 2752 138 564 0 2060 2947 184 595 0 2205 2947 184 595 0 2205 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 107 291 0 1435 276 -44 351 0 1809 315 92 526 0 2124 474 351 551 0 4005 493 390 549 0 4098 495 390 549 0 4098 495 296 588 0 4389 511 362 612 0 4696 540 362 612 0 4696 540 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 1985 232 27 -511 274 1547 352 42 -489 624 3492 472 31 -476 1426 3827 459 52 -424 2307 3893 486 54 -413 2327 3893 486 54 -413 2327 3923 452 57 -435 2391 4169 503 60 -438 2534 4169 503 60 -438 2534 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 511 484 26 6 203 1172 1147 48 10 286 2324 3252 -7 9 558 4015 4497 78 20 652 4050 4536 143 20 669 4050 4536 143 20 669 4326 5022 58 22 673 4585 5323 134 23 727 4585 5323 134 23 727 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 0 0 31 6 0 0 0 39 8 0 0 0 42 12 0 0 0 38 6 0 0 0 42 7 0 0 0 42 7 0 0 0 40 6 0 0 0 45 8 0 0 0 45 8 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 1185 9873 52717 0 0 0 1478 14586 66237 0 0 0 1038 11413 82619 0 0 0 684 11312 112180 0 0 0 683 11556 112180 0 0 0 683 11556 112180 0 0 0 636 10943 117800 0 0 0 672 11828 117800 0 0 0 672 11828 117801 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 104 Table A-16. State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 19©0 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1972 1967 High I Low High II Low High I High II T ota l..................................... ..................................................... 39328 52486 63816 70798 70402 70402 72083 72105 72105 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 30 0 0 3 45 36 0 0 5 51 42 0 0 8 103 35 0 0 3 75 34 0 0 3 73 34 0 0 3 73 39 0 0 3 95 39 0 0 3 95 39 0 0 3 95 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 2 8 0 0 0 2 29 0 0 0 3 34 0 0 0 3 23 0 0 0 3 22 0 0 0 3 22 0 0 0 3 27 0 0 0 3 27 0 0 0 3 27 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 11 0 25 0 935 21 0 22 0 1022 10 0 45 0 2220 15 0 31 0 1805 14 0 30 0 1754 14 0 30 0 1754 17 0 38 0 1972 17 0 38 0 1975 17 0 38 0 1975 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s....................................................... 1 0 228 194 175 0 0 250 202 189 1 0 538 320 254 0 0 453 270 194 0 0 440 262 189 0 0 440 262 189 1 0 496 295 218 1 0 497 295 218 1 0 497 295 218 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... S ugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 29 79 5 48 1 32 87 5 50 1 44 111 11 62 1 36 86 9 46 1 35 84 9 45 1 35 84 9 45 1 40 106 10 52 2 40 106 10 52 2 40 106 10 52 2 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. Floor covering m ills ................................................................. 31 63 1 8 34 33 70 1 13 44 33 112 1 14 54 23 79 0 9 30 23 77 0 9 29 23 77 0 9 29 32 95 0 11 35 32 95 0 11 35 32 95 0 11 35 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit go o ds........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... 9 0 4 6 0 4 0 4 7 0 2 0 4 9 0 1 0 6 7 0 1 0 5 7 0 1 0 5 7 0 1 0 6 8 0 1 0 6 8 0 1 0 6 8 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 55 107 0 20 173 80 218 0 37 321 31 111 0 28 307 26 94 0 31 377 25 91 0 30 366 25 91 0 30 366 28 102 0 35 457 28 103 0 36 458 28 103 0 36 458 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard.............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 108 10 3 528 106 182 16 6 814 167 254 20 1 890 323 215 14 2 910 273 209 14 2 884 265 209 14 2 884 265 235 16 2 1047 300 235 16 2 1049 301 235 16 2 1049 301 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 36 10 9 1 0 46 18 15 1 0 91 26 23 1 0 73 14 10 0 0 71 14 9 0 0 71 14 9 0 0 84 16 11 0 0 84 16 11 0 0 84 16 11 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... Tires and inner tu b e s.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s............................... Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 22 74 31 146 3 13 56 0 51 124 44 256 5 10 71 0 64 83 63 404 7 22 68 0 61 80 51 322 9 12 65 0 59 78 50 313 9 11 63 0 59 78 50 313 9 11 63 0 71 87 56 391 11 13 71 0 71 87 56 391 11 13 71 0 71 87 56 391 11 13 71 0 See footnotes at end of table. 105 Table A=16. State and local governm ent p u rch a s es , e d u c a tio n , s e le c te d h is to ric a l and projected years, 1963 to 1©96-=Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1972 1967 1963 Low 59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 60. Glass ....................................................................................... 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector Low High II High I High II High I 0 28 0 65 0 59 0 37 0 36 0 36 0 43 0 43 0 43 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products .............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 294 91 18 109 89 469 81 20 138 54 257 39 11 89 52 210 33 14 75 40 204 32 14 72 39 204 32 14 72 39 231 36 17 81 44 231 36 17 81 44 231 36 17 81 44 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 18 123 5 0 5 15 152 3 0 7 15 87 2 0 10 12 70 1 0 6 12 68 1 0 6 12 68 1 0 6 13 77 1 0 7 13 77 1 0 7 13 77 1 0 7 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products ........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 108 657 2 29 53 110 921 4 32 79 55 691 8 49 102 30 676 6 41 80 29 657 6 40 78 29 657 6 40 78 35 743 7 45 88 35 744 7 45 88 35 744 7 45 88 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 61 0 6 5 11 138 0 14 1 13 44 0 13 4 16 35 0 14 4 9 34 0 14 4 9 34 0 14 4 9 38 0 16 4 11 38 0 16 4 11 38 0 16 4 11 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 15 8 41 78 33 20 15 11 128 63 20 15 21 141 61 19 15 11 120 287 18 15 11 117 279 18 15 11 117 279 22 18 13 130 307 22 18 13 130 308 22 18 13 130 308 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 55 158 65 11 12 100 219 71 20 31 111 208 79 19 30 99 182 65 18 25 96 177 64 17 24 96 177 64 17 24 115 210 70 20 28 115 210 70 20 28 115 210 70 20 29 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 187 24 0 40 3 220 44 0 80 6 147 45 0 91 6 124 48 0 181 6 120 46 0 176 6 120 46 0 176 6 144 57 0 252 7 144 57 0 253 7 144 57 0 253 7 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 4 145 0 0 0 10 224 0 0 0 9 218 0 0 0 7 227 0 0 0 7 221 0 0 0 7 221 0 0 0 8 263 0 0 0 8 263 0 0 0 8 263 0 0 0 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 0 5 63 4 11 0 8 71 10 18 0 17 45 11 17 0 12 36 12 19 0 12 35 11 18 0 12 35 11 18 0 10 41 13 22 0 10 41 13 22 0 10 41 13 22 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation........... 4........................................................ 43 4 7 43 76 90 334 263 9 64 77 4 12 43 126 112 508 251 12 129 121 4 16 127 215 88 560 323 20 100 98 3 10 77 180 62 454 273 13 111 95 3 10 75 174 61 441 265 12 107 95 3 10 75 174 61 441 265 12 107 102 4 11 89 198 74 501 300 15 128 102 4 11 89 198 74 502 300 15 128 102 4 12 89 198 74 502 300 15 128 116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 117. Transportation services.......................................................... 2 0 4 0 3 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 See footnotes at end of table. 106 Table A - 16. State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low 118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives High I High II Low High I High II 0 95 539 0 185 914 0 319 873 0 260 785 0 253 763 0 253 763 0 286 875 0 286 876 0 286 876 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 178 52 587 -1650 -17 201 99 914 -1753 -19 415 141 952 -1999 -25 404 171 790 -2374 -20 392 167 767 -2307 -19 392 167 767 -2307 -19 467 184 976 -2715 -20 468 185 977 -2719 -20 468 185 977 -2719 -20 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 22 1 151 0 106 26 2 209 0 123 19 1 221 0 349 15 1 187 0 287 14 1 182 0 279 14 1 182 0 279 16 1 204 0 306 17 1 205 0 306 17 1 205 0 306 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. -96 109 0 393 100 -304 121 0 469 116 -289 195 0 801 153 -330 178 0 799 119 -321 173 0 777 116 -321 173 0 777 116 -368 191 0 1010 127 -369 191 0 1012 127 -369 191 0 1012 127 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 432 59 18 -500 0 556 79 33 -486 0 1231 80 25 -424 0 1060 64 31 -375 0 1030 62 30 -364 0 1030 62 30 -364 0 1164 74 36 -381 0 1166 74 36 -382 0 1166 74 36 -382 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... -3 0 -20 2 20 -7 0 -24 2 40 -7 0 -33 3 48 -8 0 -50 3 38 -8 0 -49 3 36 -8 0 -49 3 36 -9 0 -65 4 43 -9 0 -65 4 43 -9 0 -65 4 43 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 0 0 11 2 0 0 0 20 3 0 0 0 23 6 0 0 0 17 1 0 0 0 16 1 0 0 0 16 1 0 0 0 19 2 0 0 0 19 2 0 0 0 19 2 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 228 2200 29215 0 0 0 127 3982 37241 0 0 0 61 2223 47116 0 0 0 52 1944 56688 0 0 0 51 1890 56688 0 0 0 51 1890 56688 0 0 0 56 1562 56690 0 0 0 56 1565 56690 0 0 0 56 1565 56690 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 107 Table A-17. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual Sector 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives 1967 1963 1972 Low High I High II Low High I High II T ota l.......................................................................................... 13335 18620 29124 48215 48446 48446 52790 54525 54525 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 9 0 0 1 9 14 0 0 1 13 26 0 0 2 29 23 0 0 2 37 24 0 0 2 38 24 0 0 2 38 26 0 0 3 42 28 0 0 3 45 28 0 0 3 45 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 0 6 4 0 0 0 6 4 0 0 0 6 4 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 1 0 8 0 477 2 0 9 0 207 3 0 34 0 284 3 0 45 0 276 3 0 45 0 278 3 0 45 0 278 4 0 48 0 334 4 0 50 0 354 4 0 50 0 354 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s....................................................... 0 0 88 45 49 0 0 137 68 73 0 0 249 127 133 0 0 305 174 170 0 0 308 176 172 0 0 308 176 172 0 0 356 195 190 0 0 377 207 201 0 0 377 207 201 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products ................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages ................................................................ 5 14 2 2 -2 7 22 3 3 -2 14 38 6 6 1 14 48 3 7 2 14 48 3 7 2 14 48 3 7 2 15 53 3 8 2 16 57 3 9 3 16 57 3 9 3 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 6 26 0 22 0 9 40 0 23 1 18 71 0 38 2 20 87 0 99 3 20 88 0 100 3 20 88 0 100 3 22 97 0 101 4 24 103 0 107 4 24 103 0 107 4 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging.................................................................................... 1 0 21 10 0 1 0 16 16 0 1 0 29 28 0 1 0 69 44 0 1 0 70 44 0 1 0 70 44 0 1 0 76 47 0 1 0 81 50 0 1 0 81 50 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 17 52 0 2 9 17 54 0 3 13 11 29 0 4 32 11 30 0 10 57 11 31 0 10 58 11 31 0 10 58 11 30 0 11 64 11 31 0 11 68 11 31 6 11 68 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 30 6 0 8 20 49 9 0 8 32 95 14 0 20 66 158 18 0 56 153 160 18 0 56 154 160 18 0 57 154 157 20 0 65 179 167 21 0 69 190 167 21 0 69 190 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 23 1 9 0 0 33 2 12 0 0 75 3 24 0 0 123 3 24 0 0 124 3 24 0 0 124 3 24 0 0 138 3 25 0 0 146 4 27 0 0 146 4 27 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tu b e s.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b es.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 262 17 5 58 2 22 39 0 460 27 10 89 4 40 44 0 818 54 10 129 6 54 50 0 1953 76 13 131 18 81 78 0 1970 77 13 132 18 82 79 0 1970 77 13 132 18 82 79 0 2283 83 14 139 23 87 89 0 2420 88 14 147 24 92 94 0 2420 88 14 147 24 92 94 0 See footnotes at end of table. 108 Table A-17. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 ’ 1963 1972 High I Low High II High I Low High II 59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 60. Glass ....................................................................................... 1 26 1 44 2 71 3 111 3 112 3 112 4 120 4 127 4 127 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products .......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 84 21 4 33 89 102 17 4 32 70 256 39 3 64 40 264 40 6 61 42 267 40 6 61 42 267 40 6 61 42 257 39 8 59 40 272 41 9 63 43 272 41 9 63 43 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 47 114 0 0 0 30 127 0 0 0 175 25 0 0 0 180 26 0 0 0 182 26 0 0 0 182 26 0 0 0 175 25 0 0 0 185 27 0 0 0 185 27 0 0 0 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products........................................................ ' Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 12 234 5 4 7 11 251 2 4 11 32 180 2 5 25 33 186 2 8 31 33 188 2 8 31 33 188 2 8 31 32 181 2 9 31' 34 191 2 10 33 34 191 2 10 33 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 33 0 2 18 8 54 0 3 29 14 17 0 3 33 21 19 0 7 63 22 19 0 7 64 22 19 0 7 64 22 19 0 8 71 21 20 0 9 75 23 20 0 9 75 23 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 3 0 10 1 2 3 0 1 1 3 3 0 12 1 4 7 0 12 2 19 7 0 12 2 19 7 0 12 2 19 8 0 11 3 22 9 0 12 3 23 9 0 12 3 23 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 5 23 16 4 9 10 36 10 4 14 15 130 35 3 16 49 265 37 7 43 49 268 37 7 44 49 268 37 7 44 54 305 36 8 48 58 323 38 9 51 58 323 38 9 51 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 34 1 0 9 1 54 3 0 6 1 30 6 0 3 1 36 10 0 5 2 36 10 0 5 2 36 10 0 5 2 36 9 0 5 2 38 10 0 6 2 38 10 0 6 2 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 13 26 • 0 0 0 18 50 0 0 0 21 66 0 0 0 56 279 0 0 0 57 282 0 0 0 57 282 0 0 0 63 340 0 0 0 66 361 0 0 0 66 361 0 0 0 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 0 0 36 61 1 0 0 54 98 5 0 0 67 108 6 0 0 194 281 10 0 0 196 283 10 0 0 196 283 10 0 0 223 303 9 0 0 236 321 10 0 0 236 321 10 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 51 1 1 0 5 25 10 84 12 18 76 1 2 1 9 30 17 114 15 32 123 1 3 5 27 38 32 249 21 37 208 2 3 3 35 49 46 307 51 103 210 2 3 3 35 49 46 310 51 103 210 2 3 3 35 49 46 310 51 103 224 2 3 3 32 50 43 296 52 107 238 2 4 3 34 53 46 314 55 114 238 2 4 3 34 53 46 314 55 114 116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 117. Transportation services.......................................................... 1 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 See footnotes at end of table. 109 Table A -17. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years, 1983 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1963 1967 1972 Low 118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector High I High II Low High I High II 0 34 51 0 65 87 0 130 103 0 229 233 0 231 235 0 231 235 0 234 240 0 247 254 0 247 254 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 19 -10 201 50 115 20 -15 303 53 182 51 -40 533 75 264 66 -21 734 131 386 66 -21 741 132 390 66 -21 741 132 390 64 -24 802 123 408 68 -25 850 130 433 68 -25 850 130 433 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 4 0 35 0 75 7 1 64 0 153 9 1 123 0 335 10 1 185 0 565 10 1 186 0 570 10 1 186 0 570 9 1 179 0 593 10 1 190 0 629 10 1 190 0 629 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 31 181 0 178 23 58 229 0 291 24 101 331 0 511 32 222 371 0 1562 39 224 374 0 1575 39 224 374 0 1575 39 229 394 0 1756 42 242 418 0 1861 45 242 418 0 1861 45 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair................................................................... Motion pictures................................................ ...................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 233 23 0 0 274 293 43 0 1 624 734 31 1 1 1426 1416 93 1 1 2307 1428 94 1 1 2327 1428 94 1 1 2327 1489 94 1 2 2391 1578 99 1 2 2534 1578 99 1 2 2534 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 514 484 1 • 3 51 1179 1147 2 5 102 2331 3252 2 2 218 4023 4497 6 11 292 4058 4536 6 11 295 4058 4536 6 11 295 4335 5022 6 11 304 4594 5323 7 12 322 4594 5323 7 12 322 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable imports......................................................... 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 5 1 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households...................................................................... r:..... Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 22 839 7325 0 0 0 26 1082 9550 0 0 0 29 1455 12386 0 0 0 24 1734 21430 0 0 0 24 1749 21430 0 0 0 24 1749 21430 0 0 0 25 1796 23799 0 0 0 27 1903 23799 0 0 0 27 1903 23799 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 110 Table A-18. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1967 1963 1972 High I Low High II High I Low High II T otal.......................................................................................... 7246 8894 11621 15805 17468 17468 16664 18515 18515 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 1 0 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 6 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 7 3 0 0 0 14 3 0 0 0 14 1 0 0 0 6 3 0 0 0 14 3 0 0 0 14 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 0 0 1 0 54 0 0 1 0 102 0 0 3 0 132 0 0 2 0 146 0 0 4 0 299 0 0 4 0 299 0 0 2 0 173 0 0 3 0 389 0 0 3 0 389 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 7 0 23 10 10 9 0 26 12 11 16 0 37 14 16 7 0 30 25 24 15 0 62 51 49 15 0 62 51 49 6 0 28 28 23 13 0 62 63 52 13 0 62 63 52 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar........................................................................................ Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages ................................................................ 1 12 1 3 0 1 13 1 3 0 1 8 1 2 0 3 12 1 7 0 6 25 1 14 0 6 25 1 14 0 3 14 1 7 0 7 31 1 15 0 7 31 1 15 0 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 5 5 -1 0 0 5 6 -1 2 0 4 8 -1 4 1 6 17 -2 3 1 12 35 -3 5 1 12 35 -3 5 1 5 18 -2 3 0 11 40 -3 6 1 11 40 -3 6 1 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... -1 0 33 -7 0 -2 0 38 -7 0 1 0 47 2 0 1 0 90 2 0 3 0 183 3 0 3 0 183 3 0 2 0 85 2 0 4 0 192 4 0 4 0 192 4 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 1 3 0 2 12 2 7 0 3 10 2 10 0 7 16 1 5 0 2 10 2 10 0 4 20 2 10 0 4 20 1 4 0 2 12 2 9 0 3 27 2 9 0 3 27 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 15 3 0 2 10 19 3 0 3 15 17 4 0 2 9 16 4 0 2 9 33 8 0 4 17 33 8 0 4 17 13 3 0 2 8 29 7 0 5 18 29 7 0 5 18 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. Drugs....................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... Tires and inner tu b e s.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 1 4 0 37 13 37 3 0 1 5 0 47 18 44 4 0 1 3 0 73 16 42 6 0 2 3 0 48 13 23 7 0 4 7 0 98 26 48 15 0 4 7 0 98 26 48 15 0 2 3 0 43 12 23 7 0 3 6 0 96 28 52 15 0 3 6 0 96 28 52 15 0 See footnotes at end of table. 111 Table A-18. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1967 1963 1972 High I Low 59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 60. Glass ....................................................................................... 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector High I Low High II High II 2 3 2 4 7 10 3 4 6 8 6 8 2 3 5 7 5 7 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c......... ...................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 11 4 2 5 6 19 3 2 6 5 26 3 1 12 10 14 1 2 6 6 28 2 4 12 13 28 2 4 12 13 10 1 2 5 5 23 2 4 10 11 23 2 4 10 11 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 1 5 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 8 0 0 0 2 8 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 1 7 0 0 0 1 7 0 0 0 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ............. ....................... Screw machine products........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 4 28 0 -17 5 4 40 0 -19 7 6 43 0 -28 8 3 22 0 -26 6 7 45 0 -53 12 7 45 0 -53 12 3 17 0 -24 5 6 39 0 -53 11 6 39 0 -53 11 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. -5 0 4 0 3 -2 0 5 0 4 -2 0 5 0 5 -8 0 6 0 3 -16 0 12 1 5 -16 0 12 1 5 -7 0 5 0 2 -16 0 11 1 5 -16 0 11 1 5 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 0 0 8 2 0 0 0 9 5 0 0 0 11 8 0 0 0 6 10 0 0 0 12 20 0 0 0 12 20 0 0 0 5 11 0 0 0 12 25 0 0 0 12 25 0 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 1 6 3 1 3 1 7 4 1 4 2 13 7 1 5 1 9 4 0 5 2 18 7 1 9 2 18 7 1 9 1 7 3 0 4 2 16 6 1 9 2 16 6 1 9 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 10 0 0 16 9 11 0 0 21 12 9 0 0 32 7 8 0 0 14 8 16 0 0 29 17 16 0 0 29 17 6 0 0 13 7 14 0 0 29 17 14 0 0 29 17 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 3 93 2 4 0 5 114 2 5 0 4 176 4 15 0 4 95 2 4 0 8 193 4 7 0 8 193 4 7 0 3 83 2 3 0 7 185 3 7 0 7 185 3 7 0 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 6 1 6 2 0 8 1 7 3 0 18 2 12 4 0 6 2 6 3 0 12 4 11 5 0 12 4 11 5 0 5 2 4 2 0 11 4 10 5 0 11 4 10 5 0 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g o o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses........................................... Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation................ ,............................................. Air transportation.................................................................... 6 0 1 2 -18 6 6 28 2 10 7 0 1 2 -20 7 7 28 2 13 9 0 1 2 -18 9 6 39 2 11 9 0 1 3 -19 5 5 26 2 11 17 0 2 5 -39 10 9 52 4 22 17 0 2 5 -39 10 9 52 4 22 7 0 1 2 -18 4 4 21 2 9 15 0 2 5 -39 9 8 48 4 20 15 0 2 5 -39 9 8 48 4 20 116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 117. Transportation services.......................................................... 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 See footnotes at end of table. 112 Table A -18. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II High I Low High II 118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 0 44 43 0 54 49 0 55 50 0 56 46 0 114 95 0 114 95 0 48 39 0 109 88 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 15 5 98 7 10 13 6 126 8 11 16 7 95 12 12 13 11 104 18 6 26 23 211 37 12 26 23 211 37 12 10 11 88 16 5 22 24 198 35 11 22 24 198 35 11 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 1 18 8 0 26 1 20 11 0 16 2 22 8 0 36 1 27 7 0 27 2 55 15 0 56 2 55 15 0 56 1 31 6 0 22 2 70 14 0 50 2 70 14 0 50 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 20 0 0 80 1 26 0 0 94 1 19 0 0 62 1 23 0 0 83 1 46 0 0 170 3 46 0 0 170 3 19 0 0 73 1 43 0 0 163 3 43 0 0 163 3 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 37 24 2 1 0 47 30 3 1 0 71 58 3 1 0 69 25 2 1 0 140 51 4 2 0 140 51 4 2 0 56 21 2 1 0 126 48 4 2 0 126 48 4 2 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffic e ............................................................................... 0 0 26 0 12. 0 0 30 0 15 0 0 10 0 12 0 0 60 0 13 0 0 122 0 26 0 0 122 0 26 0 0 57 0 11 0 0 128 0 24 0 0 128 0 24 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 8 3 0 0 0 8 3 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. -29 102 6104 0 0 0 -3 173 7391 0 0 0 -43 193 9891 0 0 0 -6 204 14207 0 0 0 -11 417 14207 0 0 0 -11 417 14207 0 0 0 -4 201 15177 0 0 0 -10 452 15177 0 0 0 -10 452 15178 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 113 0 109 88 Table A-19. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 Low High I High II High II High I Low T otal.......................................................................................... 35518 43086 46132 55420 55764 55764 56887 59355 59355 Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 0 1 0 5 56 0 3 0 7 56 0 2 0 11 56 0 6 0 6 132 0 6 0 7 133 0 6 0 7 133 0 5 0 6 120 ' 0 6 0 6 129 0 6 0 6 129 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 0 14 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 5 0 297 36 3517 5 0 433 41 4151 9 0 444 49 4706 8 0 424 39 4826 8 0 428 39 4873 8 0 428 39 4873 7 0 415 35 4959 8 0 444 38 5311 8 0 444 38 5311 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products ................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages ................................................................ 4 0 0 0 -4 4 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 -10 8 0 0 0 -13 8 0 0 0 -13 8 0 0 0 -13 8 0 0 0 -12 8 0 0 0 -13 8 0 0 0 -13 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing ................................................... ...... Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 0 0 1 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 0 0 1 1 12 0 0 1 2 10 0 0 1 2 10 0 0 1 2 10 0 0 1 2 9 0 0 1 2 10 0 0 1 2 10 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel .................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ Logging.................................................................................... 3 0 8 7 0 1 0 7 7 0 2 0 4 10 0 1 0 8 15 0 1 0 8 15 0 1 0 8 15 0 1 0 8 14 0 1 0 9 15 0 1 0 9 15 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 163 185 0 12 93 143 328 0 14 107 51 189 0 5 136 41 149 0 13 211 41 151 0 13 213 41 151 0 13 213 37 136 0 12 204 40 145 0 13 219 40 145 0 13 219 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 82 1 0 29 168 89 1 0 87 191 171 2 1 83 441 221 2 1 91 552 223 2 1 92 557 223 2 1 92 557 193 2 1 95 563 206 2 1 102 603 206 2 1 102 603 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 29 61 56 0 0 22 64 63 0 0 70 61 48 0 0 89 100 23 0 0 90 101 23 0 0 90 101 23 0 0 98 88 21 0 0 105 94 22 0 0 105 94 22 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. Drugs ....................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tu b e s.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 1 20 55 619 67 19 33 0 1 34 120 767 87 15 52 0 3 35 77 1089 30 5 49 0 4 54 74 1099 61 14 62 0 4 54 74 1109 61 14 62 0 4 54 74 1109 61 14 62 0 4 51 68 1108 59 13 56 0 4 54 73 1187 63 14 60 0 4 54 73 1187 63 14 60 0 See footnotes at end of table. 114 Table A-19. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—-Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1967 1963 1972 Low 59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 60. Glass ....................................................................................... 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector High II High I High I Low High II 0 5 0 14 0 8 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products.............................................. Structural clay products.......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 1037 52 20 111 261 1266 60 25 140 247 1503 41 22 114 207 1184 32 18 90 163 1196 33 18 91 165 1196 33 18 91 165 1078 29 16 82 148 1154 31 17 88 159 1154 31 17 88 159 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 78 197 2 0 0 67 303 1 0 0 238 116 1 0 0 188 92 1 0 0 190 92 1 0 0 190 92 1 0 0 171 83 1 0 0 183 89 1 0 0 183 89 1 0 0 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products ........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 46 1154 5 6 24 54 1474 4 2 56 36 1279 3 1 41 28 1661 2 4 39 29 1677 2 4 39 29 1677 2 4 39 26 1670 2 3 36 28 17S8 4 38 28 1788 2 4 38 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery ...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 184 52 19 170 22 193 74 18 160 40 349 86 24 115 29 276 95 35 148 23 278 96 35 149 23 278 96 35 149 23 251 99 30 138 21 269 106 32 148 22 269 106 32 148 22 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 12 0 27 19 9 16 0 43 14 8 18 1 39 29 23 20 1 25 36 25 20 1 25 36 25 20 1 25 36 25 20 1 22 45 22 21 1 24 48 24 21 1 24 48 24 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................. Household appliances............................................................. 33 33 89 39 5 45 44 81 35 8 61 60 116 53 8 59 50 149 78 6 59 51 150 78 6 59 51 150 78 6 55 46 153 81 5 59 49 163 86 6 59 49 163 86 6 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 189 1 1 49 2 189 2 0 40 4 207 3 1 28 8 159 4 1 34 5 161 4 1 35 5 161 4 1 35 5 148 3 1 35 5 159 4 1 37 5 159 4 1 37 5 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c......... ................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 21 617 0 2 57 16 670 0 2 72 15 683 0 2 104 62 928 0 5 77 63 937 0 5 77 63 937 0 5 77 57 908 0 5 80 61 973 0 5 86 61 973 0 5 86 £L 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 0 0 40 2 0 0 0 51 2 0 0 0 64 3 0 0 0 66 5 0 0 0 67 5 0 0 0 67 5 0 0 0 63 5 0 0 0 67 5 0 0 0 67 5 0 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o ds.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation..................................................................... 27 1 0 27 61 209 50 501 34 92 42 1 0 39 39 203 82 650 32 136 77 2 0 42 126 173 89 568 53 166 96 2 0 75 129 160 95 470 39 224 97 2 0 76 130 161 96 475 39 226 97 2 0 76 130 161 96 475 39 226 79 2 0 70 111 146 81 433 35 213 84 2 0 75 119 157 86 464 38 228 84 2 0 75 119 157 86 464 38 228 116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 117. Transportation services.......................................................... 6 0 8 0 14 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 See footnotes at end of table. 115 Table A-19. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1§90=Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1963 1967 1972 High I Low High II High I Low High II 118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 0 277 435 0 333 534 0 720 787 0 1181 659 0 1192 666 0 1192 666 0 1215 604 0 1301 647 0 1301 647 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 77 -78 755 148 446 80 -58 826 158 609 125 -59 1021 221 355 150 -107 1093 322 176 151 -108 1104 325 177 151 -108 1104 325 177 119 -120 1010 294 164 127 -129 1082 315 175 127 -129 1082 315 175 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 1020 142 158 0 374 1073 149 138 0 453 1727 155 164 0 915 2816 128 186 0 1134 2843 130 187 0 1144 2843 130 187 0 1144 2725 105 174 0 1139 2919 112 186 0 1220 2919 112 186 0 1220 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 151 1 0 785 152 176 1 0 956 174 261 1 0 750 289 437 2 0 1561 334 441 2 0 1576 337 441 2 0 1576 337 417 3 0 1550 341 446 3 0 1660 365 446 3 0 1660 365 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists' services.............................................. 1284 126 7 -12 0 652 200 5 -4 0 1455 303 3 -53 0 1283 277 18 -52 0 1296 280 18 -52 0 1296 280 18 -52 0 1215 263 18 -57 0 1301 282 19 -61 0 1301 282 19 -61 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals............................... •.................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 0 0 19 2 120 0 0 41 3 130 0 0 13 4 281 0 0 63 6 309 0 0 64 6 312 0 0 64 6 312 0 0 60 7 316 0 0 64 7 338 0 0 64 7 338 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 0 0 14 2 0 0 0 11 3 0 0 0 10 4 0 0 0 13 2 0 0 0 13 2 0 0 0 13 2 0 0 0 12 2 0 0 0 13 2 0 0 0 13 2 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s.................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry ............ ................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 964 6731 10073 0 0 0 1328 9350 12055 0 0 0 991 7543 13226 0 0 0 613 7429 19855 0 0 0 619 7501 19855 0 0 0 619 7501 19855 0 0 0 559 7384 22134 0 0 0 598 7908 22134 0 0 0 598 7908 22134 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 116 Appgndte B. Domestie Output, Employment, andl Hours, Selected Historical and Projected Years, 1959 to 1990 117 Table B-1. Domestic output, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1959 1969 Dairy and poultry products ...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 10,786 23,509 2,629 11,573 11,510 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 1,927 2,498 653 800 553 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 11,219 28,150 1,967 15,969 15,104 1,401 3,272 1,330 1,497 ' 611 1979 Low High I 16,958 37,024 3,266 26,519 23,598 18,313 38,965 3,490 28,745 25,878 19,689 42,068 3,891 31,768 28,268 19,943 42,411 3,819 31,184 27,748 3,401 5,379 1,845 1,509 736 3,387 5,340 1,823 1,494 729 3,601 5,754 2,012 1,498 763 3,791 6,439 2,299 1,735 851 3,773 6,446 2,227 1,702 823 Low High I 13,765 33,730 2,772 21,130 21,458 16,285 35,635 3,146 25,591 22,771 17,016 37,195 3,318 26,892 23,930 3,190 4,799 1,216 1,554 787 3,255 5,041 1,731 1,410 685 High II 'High II 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 3,987 12,062 2,041 474 31,064 5,202 17,091 2,711 734 34,502 7,115 16,127 3,716 961 42,349 11,383 17,713 3,620 1,258 48,098 12,193 18,807 3,780 1,326 51,351 11,984 18,727 3,755 1,300 51,142 13,557 17,450 3,952 1,447 54,653 15,314 18,898 4,347 1,600 61,420 14,919 18,756 4,325 1,538 61,752 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s....................................................... 1,257 3,626 21,584 13,296 7,249 6,837 5,800 28,919 13,466 11,064 2,540 4,394 36,250 17,958 14,738 3,301 5,443 38,956 20,597 16,252 3,434 5,384 40,622 21,521 16,964 3,407 5,327 40,480 21,452 16,904 3,755 5,712 43,182 22,300 17,836 3,999 5,662 46,320 23,947 19,122 4,053 5,767 46,845 24,291 19,361 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products ................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... S ugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 9,062 7,503 2,422 2,470 6,606 12,010 8,364 3,079 3,194 10,423 15,334 8,530 3,217 3,735 15,110 17,266 8,663 3,813 3,917 16,793 18,052 9,076 3,861 4,085 17,252 17,937 9,056 3,856 4,073 17,198 19,408 8,977 3,932 4,253 19,472 20,970 9,664 4,062 4,546 20,263 21,055 9,829 4,128 4,611 20,314 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 3,032 8,819 8,319 12,617 747 5,262 11,943 8,658 16,476 2,342 8,836 14,507 9,111 21,359 4,263 9,923 15,723 9,517 23,668 4,943 10,389 16,448 9,773 25,575 5,345 10,353 16,323 9,670 25,476 5,305 11,934 17,683 9,649 26,994 5,672 12,836 19,115 10,068 30,234 6,532 13,020 19,103 9,890 30,314 6,537 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel.................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ Logging.................................................................................... 1,762 2,706 15,734 2,335 3,000 2,696 5,430 21,327 4,457 4,168 3,438 7,555 23,557 5,651 6,702 3,834 8,567 28,329 6,071 5,933 4,135 9,288 30,612 6,735 6,267 4,102 9,303 30,678 6,691 6,188 4,255 9,695 32,578 6,869 6,705 4,865 10,651 35,664 8,188 7,359 4,823 10,778 36,129 8,267 7,215 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 6,161 4,386 535 4,391 1,889 6,062 7,033 602 5,851 3,422 7,200 11,542 331 8,159 4,716 7,812 12,524 399 9,308 4,817 8,178 13,214 427 10,078 5,550 8,126 13,151 423 10,029 5,542 8,489 13,430 446 10,296 5,521 9,029 15,003 504 12,039 7,244 8,990 15,051 500 12,317 7,258 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 12,052 4,592 6,110 5,952 8,043 18,802 7,492 7,777 8,849 12,000 24,370 9,970 9,092 10,416 15,492 26,392 10,855 10,776 12,577 18,237 28,151 11,618 11,843 13,499 19,524 27,937 11,549 11,767 13,409 19,418 30,260 12,402 12,351 14,643 20,908 33,937 14,009 14,105 16,760 23,733 33,802 14,033 14,176 16,808 23,816 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 8,077 1,862 2,704 2,464 1,493 14,313 3,553 4,364 5,218 3,619 20,751 5,030 5,302 7,736 7,377 25,480 5,854 6,319 8,893 7,649 27,114 6,162 6,733 9,588 8,235 26,727 6,051 6,662 9,460 8,169 29,819 6,905 7,245 10,632 9,062 33,530 7,621 8,162 12,291 10,140 32,780 7,384 8,065 12,059 10,044 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs ....................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................ Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products ............................... Tires and inner tubes .............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b es.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ....................................................................................... 2,949 4,211 2,534 19,893 3,226 2,775 3,428 1,217 4,726 3,496 6,363 7,568 3,261 29,246 5,111 4,292 8,208 1,094 5,071 5,041 11,898 10,705 3,956 40,330 6,041 2,917 17,192 1,018 4,158 6,702 14,471 11,868 4,698 35,320 7,318 5,513 18,637 1,068 4,648 7,733 14,861 12,608 5,044 38,422 8,104 5,962 20,082 1,118 4,915 8,275 14,817 12,492 5,012 38,214 8,074 5,930 19,883 1,115 4,926 8,214 16,966 13,431 5,370 33,951 8,228 6,363 23,352 1,158 5,035 9,090 18,457 15,176 6,160 38,383 9,907 7,360 27,096 1,211 5,359 10,313 18,314 15,222 6,154 38,275 9,839 7,334 26,930 1,206 5,425 10,277 61. Cement and concrete products .............................................. 62. Structural clay products .......................................................... 6,112 1,053 7,998 1,142 9,582 1,239 10,076 1,298 10,492 1,355 10,459 1,348 10,744 1,401 11,824 1,474 11,885 1,475 118 Table B-1. Domestic output, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1985 alternatives Sector 1959 63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c...................... ......................... 65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 1969 1990 alternatives 1979 Low High I High II Low High I High II 644 2,986 24,022 857 3,903 32,317 896 5,526 31,388 919 5,649 34,166 957 6,037 37,218 944 5,996 36,948 1,024 6,356 35,638 1,116 7,294 42,015 1,110 7,263 41,494 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products............................ ........ Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 5,274 6,772 4,022 3,440 3,091 8,127 10,633 7,170 5,513 4,665 8,258 13,570 9,706 4,943 5,132 9,831 14,216 11,283 6,494 6,124 10,983 15,334 12,264 6,862 6,418 10,896 15,198 12,146 6,787 6,384 10,751 16,109 13,227 7,376 6,851 13,183 18,887 15,546 8,403 7,424 13,008 18,657 15,305 8,149 7,449 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products ........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 1,835 7,639 2,837 5,513 2,978 2,350 12,322 3,417 8,082 4,612 2,261 16,488 3,545 9,946 5,908 2,440 17,128 4,096 10,896 6,627 2,591 18,202 4,519 12,189 7,218 2,575 18,122 4,482 12,076 7,160 2,725 18,789 4,650 12,199 7,569 2,997 21,768 5,589 14,792 8,869 2,993 21,790 5,534 14,572 8,809 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery ...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 5,679 2,681 3,641 5,132 1,484 9,028 4,878 4,590 7,273 2,934 12,240 7,022 8,220 11,477 3,461 12,828 7,947 9,537 13,938 4,094 13,917 8,917 10,770 15,814 4,720 13,802 8,808 10,720 15,569 4,697 14,688 9,110 11,499 17,272 5,047 17,283 11,328 14,736 22,129 6,671 17,130 11,093 14,627 21,475 6,632 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 5,118 3,751 5,167 2,645 1,736 8,602 5,914 8,368 4,642 6,084 9,253 6,023 10,649 5,908 16,010 10,494 6,647 12,146 6,449 23,727 12,073 7,692 13,708 7,107 26,997 11,983 7,628 13,575 7,049 26,572 12,233 7,156 14,634 7,522 35,901 15,959 9,401 18,610 9,024 46,082 15,774 9,235 18,314 8,925 44,824 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus ................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 770 2,394 2,933 3,234 3,408 1,489 6,115 4,661 5,602 6,146 2,608 10,294 6,863 7,260 7,797 3,221 11,342 7,690 8,009 8,186 3,705 12,650 8,646 8,937 8,996 3,679 12,578 8,594 8,854 8,940 3,882 12,985 9,261 9,735 9,331 5,088 15,969 11,654 12,043 10,890 5,046 15,911 11,584 11,896 11,066 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus.........................'............ Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 3,237 1,397 1,466 3,874 2,673 5,112 3,902 3,752 11,225 7,452 6,347 5,571 5,863 13,256 18,085 7,083 7,544 6,923 15,052 20,734 7,669 8,851 8,056 15,762 22,707 7,614 8,685 8,031 15,657 22,283 8,263 7,790 8,422 18,087 27,435 9,637 11,238 11,234 20,205 33,145 9,602 11,237 11,226 20,348 32,183 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 2,200 32,900 18,389 2,619 1,386 3,730 58,796 26,226 3,926 2,767 6,122 83,710 26,116 5,470 4,938 7,390 7,339 7,918 9,676 9,578 6,583 86,974 101,956 101,872 102,124 130,214 129,675 37,519 39,297 39,981 32,006 32,647 32,171 6,900 7,628 9,080 9,139 6,384 6,962 4,987 6,774 4,073 4,753 4,733 6,743 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 177 716 3,182 897 917 388 2,748 3,561 2,101 1,112 859 3,963 5,639 3,802 2,002 915 4,561 6,481 4,620 2,500 1,082 5,030 7,162 5,116 2,711 1,057 5,011 7,098 5,089 2,699 1,082 4,999 7,497 5,592 3,157 1,521 5,958 9,108 7,003 3,856 1,537 5,984 9,015 6,970 3,829 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation....................................................... ............. 1,483 554 1,458 2,070 3,053 12,034 6,603 17,796 7,035 4,245 4,383 1,097 2,502 3,260 4,800 15,107 6,341 25,788 5,888 12,860 8,036 1,529 2,793 4,463 5,986 16,862 5,683 33,948 10,128 18,618 9,920 1,867 2,957 5,290 7,073 19,120 6,601 38,106 10,742 21,745 11,204 1,996 3,003 6,117 7,629 20,560 6,969 41,215 11,400 23,435 11,092 1,990 3,005 6,058 7,577 20,386 6,955 40,928 11,165 23,226 11,830 2,083 3,173 5,894 7,958 21,492 7,325 43,907 12,412 27,219 14,747 2,403 3,583 7,209 9,146 24,556 7,964 50,573 13,787 31,265 14,573 2,388 3,557 7,243 9,133 24,382 7,957 50,476 13,271 30,911 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 775 868 5,275 12,337 13,382 1,402 1,395 4,556 25,545 26,363 1,911 1,729 3,554 54,461 43,213 1,987 2,303 5,659 78,575 51,301 2,151 2,475 6,114 83,582 54,942 2,133 2,085 2,342 2,311 2,442 2,752 3,150 3,079 6,081 6,547 7,513 7,534 83,116 108,161 119,993 119,324 54,576 61,459 69,147 69,632 121. 122. 123. 124. Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... 10,250 1,754 51,805 33,547 18,582 18,783 18,976 19,698 19,614 19,736 21,321 21,190 2,335 2,937 3,927 3,395 3,558 3,545 4,316 4,345 87,369 125,277 138,230 150,516 149,508 160,490 187,564 187,177 45,502 55,323 66,257 70,755 70,604 75,854 83,359 84,355 119 Table B-1. Domestic output, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Actual 1985 alternatives Sector 1969 1959 1990 alternatives 1979 Low High I High II Low High I High II 125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 71,149 99,834 136,492 141,694 156,380 156,012 166,930 194,271 196,755 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 13,526 9,340 24,979 41,966 43,508 22,177 33,212 38,899 40,686 40,471 44,862 48,701 48,972 13,575 16,383 19,255 22,836 23,062 21,677 26,699 27,030 31,867 49,717 53,989 56,421 56,355 64,211 72,472 72,950 66,891 112,752 116,740 129,850 130,088 135,401 157,740 160,714 77,142 124,874 134,598 145,865 145,363 154,421 176,464 177,440 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 5,166 12,711 3,447 16,293 2,326 7,824 17,474 4,399 34,518 2,917 9,995 17,443 4,045 58,042 4,138 12,371 19,312 4,133 62,431 4,893 13,496 22,076 4,495 66,775 5,286 13,413 22,103 4,504 66,377 5,258 14,235 20,909 4,067 73,683 5,654 15,763 25,620 4,873 83,500 6,487 15,981 26,130 5,024 83,669 6,502 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services............................................. 17,249 16,119 4,228 5,375 13,215 25,801 22,259 3,774 7,730 20,384 39,607 32,324 7,550 11,957 28,906 42,359 34,989 8,647 14,967 35,334 45,097 37,859 9,715 16,282 36,889 44,886 37,695 9,581 16,132 37,022 49,671 41,435 9,965 18,439 41,531 56,847 48,144 12,055 21,435 47,321 57,433 48,010 12,000 21,834 47,996 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 8,543 3,608 12,210 9,615 5,542 17,474 7,282 14,189 14,157 7,918 31,404 13,507 13,671 20,315 8,375 38,019 16,061 15,023 21,752 9,794 39,649 16,928 15,689 23,492 10,456 39,400 16,880 15,789 23,571 10,402 46,203 18,772 16,542 25,288 10,958 53,745 22,870 17,791 29,857 12,361 54,211 23,063 18,022 30,420 12,457 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 1,834 1,196 5,068 0 0 2,811 1,460 7,528 0 0 3,070 1,645 8,546 0 0 3,449 2,030 10,527 0 0 3,796 2,142 11,167 0 0 3,780 2,138 11,116 0 0 4,020 2,250 12,082 0 0 4,633 2,443 13,504 0 0 4,656 2,441 13,519 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households ............................................................................ Inventory valuation adjustment ............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90,256 120,220 111,341 138,298 147,652 147,342 146,050 167,728 168,946 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,716 5,784 4,106 3,986 4,068 4,065 3,961 4,004 4,013 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 120 Table B-2. Toflal em ploym ent, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990 (Thousands of jobs) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1959 1969 1979 Low High I High II Low High I High II Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cott_.i....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 1,551 979 565 960 1,436 814 756 178 635 1,111 511 528 142 639 995 440 504 136 646 896 496 567 150 716 993 497 568 150 715 992 355 453 122 592 814 396 506 137 675 920 411 524 135 661 903 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 47 261 33 23 31 41 296 30 34 25 76 447 30 33 39 76 514 34 32 39 78 544 37 33 41 74 515 34 32 39 79 543 35 35 40 83 593 38 37 43 76 543 33 36 40 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 201 200 105 19 662 138 157 99 18 792 265 211 103 25 1,292 389 271 104 29 1,297 418 279 109 30 1,360 390 270 102 29 1,314 412 311 104 32 1,424 473 325 109 34 1,532 412 307 100 32 1,460 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 50 94 324 326 249 175 107 344 260 291 75 81 364 189 306 94 76 374 180 287 100 79 390 188 300 89 82 365 167 317 102 70 380 159 289 111 73 404 169 307 98 77 372 147 323 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages.............................................................. 139 313 38 79 107 137 286 36 87 97 146 240 30 79 88 153 218 35 72 69 160 228 36 75 71 149 221 34 74 72 155 204 34 71 62 166 218 35 75 65 151 209 33 73 65 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. Floor covering m ills ................................................................ 111 144 95 619 39 142 151 83 616 58 151 163 70 532 60 153 155 69 565 66 160 162 73 588 71 148 160 70 561 68 157 148 65 534 62 167 158 68 546 69 152 156 67 529 64 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... 74 221 1,100 143 143 82 251 1,244 182 138 70 229 1,132 200 148 77 247 1,202 227 117 82 267 1,304 239 123 75 246 1,227 229 117 75 238 1,190 234 114 83 262 1,320 251 121 73 232 1,205 236 108 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 305 261 43 259 124 230 310 36 316 153 237 386 25 331 176 228 357 21 363 180 238 373 22 383 197 224 378 22 369 188 222 344 21 379 180 231 370 22 409 215 215 374 22 390 194 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 415 175 328 156 446 , 483 231 376 210 550 493 215 435 230 641 529 214 472 269 643 535 223 505 284 676 528 219 486 266 657 547 222 506 303 664 548 234 549 329 717 545 230 526 305 693 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 260 54 82 81 79 296 65 124 108 132 323 70 100 101 118 398 71 104 103 103 407 72 107 110 110 402 68 109 107 109 418 74 114 97 93 427 76 118 108 101 425 71 122 106 102 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... Tires and inner tu b es.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s .............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 106 89 62 217 105 178 94 36 341 153 143 123 72 182 119 162 320 29 316 188 194 140 69 210 122 167 493 20 234 205 217 139 70 185 124 193 549 18 228 226 227 149 71 198 129 197 561 18 238 233 217 141 69 185 126 198 541 18 229 227 229 146 71 184 126 180 659 15 212 240 247 162 75 202 129 182 669 16 226 252 232 152 69 184 126 183 645 15 214 242 61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 209 78 228 64 254 52 256 49 266 51 260 48 254 44 268 45 261 43 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 121 Table B-2. Total em ployment, s e le c te d historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued (Thousands of jobs) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1959 1969 1979 Low High I High II Low High I High II 63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products ............................... 49 125 588 45 140 644 51 164 569 56 167 597 58 176 605 54 172 597 57 172 584 60 187 586 55 181 583 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 269 137 111 78 75 312 160 153 93 87 324 159 169 90 81 363 160 169 107 92 374 167 178 110 97 361 161 167 105 94 376 164 174 112 92 387 171 181 114 100 377 165 170 108 95 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products ........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 71 344 88 189 135 76 440 114 255 165 76 538 117 243 186 95 551 128 258 216 100 583 133 272 227 99 555 128 264 215 101 583 140 266 227 106 640 151 290 241 103 601 143 277 227 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 231 90 128 162 65 315 112 141 202 95 378 145 183 283 109 414 147 200 332 136 433 162 211 358 146 425 153 204 335 137 443 149 217 369 149 472 175 239 474 183 461 160 224 369 150 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery.................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 251 164 221 166 111 347 206 291 246 224 379 205 329 309 350 405 221 371 329 443 473 228 390 352 467 416 223 371 342 445 411 228 394 345 552 548 235 430 382 614 424 231 390 373 555 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus ................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 28 97 157 176 ■157 52 147 207 223 187 48 188 219 251 180 71 198 236 292 181 76 214 254 313 186 66 203 241 298 180 78 200 237 307 193 90 226 278 356 198 73 208 247 315 190 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 134 114 105 252 213 205 156 146 409 394 226 115 169 357 525 273 116 186 398 576 289 129 204 407 577 280 123 203 393 578 310 99 202 424 666 336 121 232 433 670 324 116 229 418 669 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair .......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................ 111 696 722 151 41 125 912 805 193 51 180 996 632 228 74 160 899 720 241 59 185 986 758 260 67 163 920 730 244 69 174 922 768 271 66 211 1,049 839 306 81 176 940 779 279 81 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 9 23 166 45 85 14 89 195 82 75 20 105 218 141 82 22 115 228 168 90 24 129 242 178 95 26 116 228 163 92 24 120 253 189 92 31 147 296 225 102 32 121 246 183 97 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation.................................................................... 69 30 67 116 229 930 311 1,001 239 184 111 35 78 149 233 651 315 1,214 234 357 134 28 93 145 244 561 303 1,558 223 442 140 29 90 160 261 503 337 1,747 207 456 153 30 88 171 267 524 346 1,823 213 474 144 30 89 169 261 508 330 1,731 197 460 144 26 91 165 264 463 355 1,922 197 494 166 29 92 176 270 493 364 2,053 205 525 152 25 91 175 262 468 349 1,906 183 497 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 24 70 90 749 430 18 111 131 919 460 20 192 193 1,121 606 21 218 234 1,213 640 22 227 241 1,295 698 21 221 234 1,225 643 23 241 267 1,280 650 23 262 278 1,454 758 22 246 267 1,300 654 121. 122. 123. 124. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale trade ..............................................;...................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... 215 6t 3,349 1,960 220 88 4,163 2,812 223 93 5,501 4,924 227 102 6,028 5,990 242 111 6,327 6,211 222 106 5,997 6,000 243 109 6,367 6,836 275 128 6,964 7,179 235 114 6,412 6,843 1 22 Table B-2. Total employment, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued (Thousands of jobs) Projected Actual 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1959 1969 1979 Low High I High II Low High I High II 125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 7,936 9,729 11,952 12,851 13,612 12,964 13,830 15,088 14,190 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 644 389 1,137 0 753 987 652 1,370 0 855 1,492 898 1,753 0 1,371 1,724 918 1,969 0 1,486 1,756 1,043 1,999 0 1,629 1,727 1,041 1,972 0 1,512 1,982 1,174 2,121 0 1,732 2,014 1,330 2,194 0 1,927 1,957 1,303 2,133 0 1,716 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 868 1,157 538 814 121 1,065 1,232 634 1,691 134 1,543 1,278 613 3,144 166 1,738 1,260 660 3,574 186 1,918 1,440 725 3,789 198 1,857 1,341 698 3,650 186 1,887 1,282 650 4,315 192 2,126 1,556 771 4,757 214 2,035 1,424 733 4,509 198 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors' and dentists’ services.............................................. 746 422 228 372 605 1,046 569 248 497 806 1,720 837 308 761 1,317 1,933 978 294 881 1,703 2,041 1,004 303 890 1,752 1,962 971 293 875 1,683 2,179 1,168 316 1,029 1,897 2,413 1,208 329 1,042 1,983 2,292 1,148 306 1,019 1,875 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services............................................................... Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... Post o ffic e ............................................................................... 974 283 839 1,331 574 1,776 652 1,229 1,764 732 2,621 1,403 1,683 2,244 661 3,431 1,814 1,864 2,343 668 3,528 1,885 1,931 2,471 680 3,372 1,866 1,895 2,404 670 3,968 2,312 2,099 2,638 675 4,207 2,553 2,150 2,839 700 3,954 2,403 2,075 2,722 680 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 104 71 225 0 0 152 87 351 0 0 153 130 492 0 0 174 159 606 0 0 194 168 640 0 0 178 167 610 0 0 202 185 695 0 0 236 200 775 0 0 207 190 701 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 3,163 0 0 2,574 0 0 3,594 0 0 2,322 0 0 4,605 0 0 1,723 0 0 5,451 0 0 1,586 0 0 5,720 0 0 1,619 0 0 5,496 0 0 1,592 0 0 5,497 0 0 1,576 0 0 5,978 0 0 1,593 0 0 5,643 0 0 1,587 0 123 Table 8=3. Total hours, all employees, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990 (Millions of hours) Projected Actual Sector 1985 alternatives 1959 1969 Low 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1990 alternatives 1979 High I High II Low High I High II Dairy and poultry products...................................................... Meat animals and livestock..................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains............................................................... Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 3,649 2,303 1,329 2,259 3,379 1,912 1,776 418 1,492 2,609 1,212 1,252 337 1,515 2,359 1,002 1,144 314 1,499 2,074 1,120 1,279 348 1,667 2,308 1,125 1,283 348 1,664 2,303 782 996 277 1,341 1,842 859 1,097 313 1,542 2,100 893 1,137 309 1,512 2,060 6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................ 9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 94 508 63 52 68 81 561 64 81 55 162 983 67 71 85 149 973 76 69 88 154 1,040 79 72 93 146 980 76 69 89 154 1,021 79 74 92 162 1,130 85 81 98 149 1,032 78 77 92 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal mining.............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral m ining................................... Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 376 435 241 43 1,273 287 351 230 42 1,560 562 479 247 58 2,481 826 595 247 67 2,510 893 615 258 70 2,665 838 593 245 68 2,566 881 683 244 75 2,771 1,023 716 258 79 3,043 904 673 242 76 2,896 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... Meat products ......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o ds....................................................... 105 199 692 699 498 363 226 735 553 593 158 169 754 401 621 200 160 783 390 578 211 163 812 405 600 186 170 745 351 631 216 147 797 344 583 231 150 830 359 607 201 157 746 305 633 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products .................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... S ugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products........................................................... Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 311 652 84 164 221 311 595 75 177 200 321 489 62 160 183 342 454 74 150 145 355 473 75 156 149 325 450 70 148 149 348 426 72 147 132 364 446 73 153 135 325 418 67 144 132 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills................................................. Floor covering m ills ................................................................. 233 313 192 1,318 83 291 323 162 1,323 129 310 336 139 1,128 128 321 271 135 1,199 142 334 282 141 1,234 155 302 325 135 1,241 149 328 259 125 1,153 133 342 271 132 1,187 152 305 312 125 1,215 142 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... Apparel..................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. Logging..................................................................................... 155 445 2,086 289 293 179 503 2,336 366 310 149 457 2,286 401 325 165 487 2,195 452 261 179 532 2,408 478 273 161 482 2,260 454 255 159 472 2,182 461 251 181 519 2,424 496 265 157 454 2,207 462 232 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 631 561 91 547 269 480 664 76 660 327 497 802 50 666 364 480 743 43 737 372 499 777 45 789 413 469 785 44 754 391 464 480 761 45 850 453 444 712 42 767 369 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products........................................................................ Paperboard .............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 920 376 650 313 931 1,071 496 741 421 1,145 1,066 458 850 480 1,294 1,172 460 907 577 1,273 1,194 488 972 608 1,341 1,170 475 935 550 1,311 1,201 474 966 644 1,304 1,211 514 1,044 697 1,405 1,191 502 996 621 1,361 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... Synthetic fibers ..................................... .................................. 551 118 174 174 165 633 141 261 234 278 675 151 211 218 252 827 152 220 223 219 841 154 226 235 232 827 144 228 228 229 863 158 240 210 198 865 158 244 229 212 855 147 249 224 212 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... Tires and inner tu b e s.............................................................. Rubber products, except tires and tu b es.............................. Plastic products....................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... Leather products, including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ 221 185 131 457 223 378 201 74 673 320 298 258 150 392 266 339 670 60 614 400 406 291 145 461 262 347 1,031 40 454 431 456 290 143 407 267 397 1,133 37 460 483 474 309 147 433 280 410 1,175 39 484 501 450 292 142 402 273 407 1,125 37 462 486 479 303 145 409 274 372 1,370 32 437 520 507 330 154 439 286 386 1,430 34 462 551 470 308 142 397 276 382 1,365 32 436 524 61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 461 164 509 134 552 110 557 102 579 106 561 102 549 93 580 95 559 90 124 763 43 809 405 Table B-3. Total hours, all employees, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued (Millions of hours) Projected Actual 1985 alternatives Sector 1959 1969 Low 63. Pottery and related products.............. .................................... 64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 1990 alternatives 1979 High I High II Low High I High II 98 271 1,217 93 302 1,372 106 351 1,210 114 361 1,279 119 383 1,315 112 369 1,285 117 371 1,255 122 404 1,288 114 385 1,264 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... Primary copper and copper products..................................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... Metal containers ..................................................................... 560 295 235 170 163 674 347 329 210 194 687 347 360 197 182 784 341 359 226 206 820 360 381 235 218 788 346 354 223 208 815 351 370 237 205 859 375 396 248 222 828 358 364 231 209 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... Screw machine products ........................................................ Metal stampings...................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 148 721 192 409 284 160 936 251 554 348 157 1,126 255 511 386 195 1,156 284 562 438 205 1,227 297 594 467 202 1,162 287 580 439 207 1,223 313 582 459 218 1,347 334 625 501 212 1,254 324 611 467 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... Farm machinery...................................................................... Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipment.................................................. 490 188 268 344 137 672 238 295 438 205 800 306 395 595 231 858 309 426 720 289 912 339 453 781 314 887 318 436 737 299 918 310 468 799 320 1,005 358 511 1,026 390 970 324 488 830 340 81. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... 82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 84.' Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 551 351 469 372 233 780 447 627 557 475 842 435 700 670 739 917 455 801 728 958 1,032 480 839 779 964 965 465 813 753 914 950 462 867 766 1,168 1,238 496 956 846 1,280 1,036 481 893 818 1,200 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................. 61 205 330 369 328 110 311 439 475 393 101 392 457 528 372 144 422 495 614 367 156 461 538 664 377 134 434 510 627 363 164 422 502 651 389 186 486 603 773 398 155 442 531 677 379 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... Radio and television receiving sets........................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... Radio and communication equipment.................................... Electronic components ........................................................... 282 235 223 528 443 424 316 313 855 809 470 232 359 748 1,089 547 232 379 825 1,229 585 258 416 845 1,233 563 246 411 809 1,227 621 196 408 872 1,450 687 240 470 892 1,468 656 229 461 853 1,447 96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir.......................................... 100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 237 1,476 1,513 313 83 264 1,957 1,714 410 108 378 2,113 1,331 469 158 343 1,917 1,502 488 120 386 2,166 1,571 525 135 358 2,010 1,506 488 140 380 1,968 1,596 544 133 449 2,345 1,707 607 162 400 2,080 1,573 547 162 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... Medical and dental instruments............................................. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 17 50 262 95 179 26 186 327 171 160 43 211 461 289 177 43 230 482 347 193 48 257 523 376 202 53 229 486 346 194 48 235 551 403 198 60 286 652 485 215 65 232 555 409 201 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... Jewelry and silverware........................................................... Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. Railroad transportation........................................................... Local transit and intercity buses............................................ Truck transportation................................................................ Water transportation............................................................... Air transportation..................................................................... 146 62 140 240 482 2,002 706 2,269 515 425 237 71 162 299 486 1,494 658 2,705 403 706 285 57 188 292 508 1,281 563 3,290 407 885 301 61 172 312 539 1,126 605 3,713 369 889 328 64 169 336 554 1,176 624 3,887 381 927 308 62 174 332 531 1,139 605 3,656 354 900 311 55 172 318 537 1,020 626 4,020 346 947 350 62 174 340 550 1,089 645 4,301 360 1,010 319 55 173 338 523 1,030 630 3,955 323 956 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation............................................................ Transportation services.......................................................... Radio and television broadcasting......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 51 151 179 1,537 918 39 221 260 1,929 996 44 377 385 2,338 1,279 43 410 476 2,538 1,405 45 430 490 2,755 1,480 44 425 475 2,597 1,412 45 446 548 2,708 1,444 46 487 571 3,047 1,602 44 466 549 2,828 1,471 121. 122. 123. 124. Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... Wholesale tra d e ...................................................................... Eating and drinking places .................................................... 456 138 7,187 4,225 467 203 8,834 4,809 471 204 11,211 6,823 484 225 11,828 8,252 502 236 12,455 8,582 488 242 11,765 8,234 525 243 12,153 9,146 572 272 13,304 9,612 526 267 12,211 9,102 125 Table B-3. Total hours, all employees, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued (Millions of hours) Projected Actual 1959 125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 1990 alternatives 1985 alternatives Sector 1969 1979 Low High I High II Low High I High II 16,394 18,235 20,717 21,491 22,835 21,747 22,502 24,565 23,104 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... Insurance................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... Real estate.............................................................................. 1,250 771 2,311 0 1,534 1,914 1,289 2,672 0 1,710 2,824 1,738 3,443 0 2,753 3,284 1,770 3,859 0 2,832 3,358 2,020 3,931 0 3,116 3,296 2,008 3,870 0 2,885 3,775 2,263 4,157 0 3,246 3,845 2,570 4,31.1 0 3,619 3,730 2,508 4,182 0 3,215 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... Personal and repair services................................................. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... Advertising .............................................................................. 1,945 2,523 1,224 1,413 236 2,097 2,515 1,304 2,800 247 2,713 2,307 1,102 5,412 319 2,813 2,181 1,160 6,108 348 3,114 2,503 1,279 6,502 372 3,092 2,275 1,195 6,249 357 2,910 2,111 1,091 7,229 353 3,283 2,568 1,295 7,990 393 3,220 2,295 1,196 7,557 372 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Professional services, n.e.c.............................................. '...... Automobile repair.................................................................... Motion pictures....................................................................... Amusements and recreation services................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 1,697 884 345 681 1,314 2,281 1,189 375 864 1,554 3,471 1,727 465 1,224 2,324 3,888 1,890 470 1,494 2,859 4,118 1,962 492 1,526 2,951 3,939 1,893 473 1,496 2,874 4,296 2,200 506 1,743 3,036 4,767 2,324 537 1,798 3,175 4,505 2,202 497 1,756 3,043 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. Hospitals.................................................................................. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ Educational services.......................................................... . Nonprofit organizations.......................................................... Post o ffice ............................................................................... 1,909 590 1,539 2,299 1,224 3,152 1,192 2,217 3,121 1,484 4,663 2,442 1,955 3,651 1,392 5,950 2,957 2,063 3,681 1,400 6,140 3,086 2,147 3,899 1,424 5,788 3,120 2,111 3,742 1,405 6,550 3,582 2,204 3,938 1,410 6,944 3,961 2,262 4,243 1,464 6,431 3,807 2,188 4,012 1,438 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ Local government passenger transit..................................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... Noncomparable im ports......................................................... 0 222 154 487 0 0 308 181 732 0 0 322 270 1,023 0 0 359 332 1,267 0 0 401 350 1,339 0 0 368 349 1,275 0 0 419 383 1,454 0 0 489 414 1,620 0 0 429 393 1,465 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... Construction industry.............................................................. Government industry .............................................................. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... Households............................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 6,782 0 0 3,534 0 0 7,734 0 0 3,019 0 0 .9,938 0 0 2,097 0 0 11,211 0 0 2,029 0 0 11,808 0 0 2,070 0 0 11,318 0 0 2,037 0 0 11,239 0 0 2,016 0 0 12,251 0 0 2,038 0 0 11,539 0 0 2,030 0 1?6 Appendix C. Giwilian In te r F®tr©(i and In te r Fore® Participation Rates by Age, Sex, and Race, 1982 to 2000 G-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000 (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985 Middle growth path Total, 16 and o v e r............................. to 2 4 .................................................. and over............................................. to 5 4 .................................................. and o ve r............................................. 109,672 25,214 100,439 69,523 14,935 111,552 25,029 102,547 71,579 14,944 113,301 24,744 104,578 73,655 14,902 114,985 24,446 106,422 75,679 14,860 65.4 71.2 65.9 80.4 32.5 65.8 72.0 66.3 81.0 32.2 66.2 72.7 66.6 81.6 31.8 66.5 73.2 67.0 82.2 31.3 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 .............................................. 20 and o ve r............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 .............................................. 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ver............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ......... ................................. 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 61,848 13,250 4,809 1,986 2,823 8,441 57,039 39,512 17,092 8,834 8,258 12,604 6,990 5,614 9,816 4,921 4,895 9,086 7,207 4,349 2,858 1,879 1,067 542 270 62,494 13,063 4,663 1,918 2,745 8,400 57,831 40,361 17,393 8,992 8,401 13,172 7,217 5,955 9,796 4,967 4,829 9,070 7,205 4,320 2,885 .1,865 1,052 541 272 63,072 12,834 4,491 1,883 2,608 8,343 58,581 41,214 17,685 9,101 8,584 13,726 7,524 6,202 9,803 5,041 4,762 9,024 7,168 4,276 2,892 1,856 1,043 540 273 63,600 12,592 4,387 1,886 2,501 8,205 59,213 42,029 17,976 9,169 8,807 14,252 7,841 6,411 9,80T 5,113 4,688 8,979 7,122 4,247 2,875 1,857 1,046 536 275 77.8 76.3 62.9 52.6 72.9 86.9 79.4 94.1 95.0 94.3 95.6 95.4 95.7 95.1 91.2 93.0 89.4 45.1 71.2 81.1 60.1 18.7 27.7 18.7 8.2 77.8 76.6 63.2 53.0 73.1 86.9 79.3 94.1 94.9 94.2 95.6 95.4 95.6 95.2 91.1 92.9 89.4 44.5 70.7 80.8 59.6 18.3 27.1 18.4 8.0 77.8 76.9 63.3 53.4 73.2 86.9 79.1 94.1 94.8 94.1 95.5 95.4 95.5 95.2 91.0 92.8 89.3 43.8 70.2 80.5 59.0 17.9 26.5 18.1 7.9 77.7 76.9 63.4 53.7 73.4 86.9 79.0 94.0 94.7 94.0 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.2 91.0 92.7 89.2 43.1 69.7 80.1 58.5 17.5 25.9 17.9 7.7 Women, 16 and over ............................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and ove r............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 .............................................. 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ve r............................................. 55 to 6 4 .............................................. 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 47,824 11,964 4,424 1,781 2,643 7,540 43,400 30,011 13,415 7,171 6,244 9,716 5,379 4,337 6,880 3,516 3,364 5,849 4,697 2,866 1,831 1,152 719 287 146 49,058 11,966 4,342 1,738 2,604 7,624 44,716 31,218 13,935 7,475 6,460 10,348 5,677 4,671 6,935 3,594 3,341 5,874 4,718 2,853 1,865 1,156 719 289 148 50,229 11,910 4,232 1,725 2,507 7,678 45,997 32,441 14,445 7,741 6,704 10,986 6,042 4,944 7,010 3,695 3,315 5,878 4,713 2,830 1,883 1,165 726 288 151 51,385 11,854 4,176 1,745 2,431 7,678 47,209 33,650 14,955 7,976 6,979 11,617 6,427 5,190 7,078 3,795 3,283 5,881 4,703 2,817 1,886 1,178 738 286 154 54.2 66.3 57.5 48.4 65.8 72.9 53.8 67.4 70.9 72.8 68.8 68.6 68.7 68.5 60.0 62.4 57.7 22.7 41.7 49.0 33.9 8.0 14.9 7.2 2.6 55.0 67.6 58.4 49.3 66.6 74.2 54.7 68.7 72.4 74.6 70.0 70.1 70.3 69.8 60.6 63.1 58.0 22.6 41.7 49.1 33.9 7.9 14.8 7.1 2.5 55.8 68.7 59.1 50.2 67.4 75.4 55.5 69.9 73.8 76.2 71.2 71.5 71.9 71.0 61.1 63.8 58.4 22.3 41.6 49.2 33.8 7.8 14.7 7.1 2.5 56.5 69.7 59.8 51.0 68.3 76.5 56.2 71.1 75.1 77.8 72.3 72.9 73.4 72.2 61.7 64.5 58.8 22.1 41.6 49.3 33.8 7.7 14.6 7.0 2.5 White Total, 16 and o v e r............................... 96,131 97,625 98,995 100,316 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.8 Men, 16 and over ....................................... 54,916 55,409 55,838 56,228 78.6 78.6 78.6 78.5 16 20 25 55 128 C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985 Middle growth path—Continued 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o v e r............................................... 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ver................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 11,657 4,283 7,374 50,633 34,999 15,014 11,248 8,737 8,260 6,556 1,704 11,480 4,152 7,328 51,257 35,690 15,234 11,752 8,704 8,239 6,547 1,692 11,268 3,998 7,270 51,840 36,379 15,450 12,232 8,697 8,191 6,507 1,684 11,047 3,910 7,137 52,318 37,041 15,669 12,685 8,687 8,140 6,457 1,683 78.9 66.8 88.2 79.8 94.8 95.6 96.0 91.9 45.5 72.0 18.8 79.4 67.3 88.4 79.7 94.7 95.5 96.0 91.9 44.9 71.5 18.4 79.8 67.7 88.6 79.6 94.7 95.4 95.9 91.8 44.2 71.0 18.0 80.1 68.0 88.7 79.4 94.6 95.3 95.9 91.7 43.6 70.5 17.7 Women, 16 and over.................................. 41,215 42,216 43,157 44,088 53.8 54.7 55.4 56.2 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ver............................................ 10,402 3,914 6,488 37,301 25,627 11,299 8,359 5,969 5,186 4,171 1,015 10,391 3,834 6,557 38,382 26,627 11,713 8,907 6,007 5,198 4,180 1,018 10,331 3,728 6,603 39,429 27,636 12,123 9,450 6,063 5,190 4,166 1,024 10,271 3,675 6,596 40,413 28,635 12,535 9,983 6,117 5,182 4,148 1,034 68.9 61.1 74.6 53.2 66.9 70.3 68.3 59.8 22.4 41.5 7.7 70.3 62.2 76.0 54.0 68.2 71.8 69.8 60.4 22.2 41.4 7.6 71.6 63.1 77.4 54.8 69.5 73.3 71.2 61.0 21.9 41.4 7.5 72.8 63.9 78.8 55.6 70.8 74.7 72.7 61.6 21.7 41.4 7.5 Total, 16 and o v e r............................... 13,541 13,927 14,306 14,669 63.3 63.7 64.2 64.4 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 6,932 7,085 7,234 7,372 71.9 72.0 72.0 71.9 16 to 2 4 ............ ......................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,593 526 1,067 6,406 4,513 2,078 1,356 1,079 826 651 175 1,583 511 1,072 6,574 4,671 2,159 1,420 1,092 831 658 173 1,566 493 1,073 6,741 4,835 2,235 1,494 1,106 833 661 172 1,545 477 1,068 6,895 4,988 2,307 1,567 1,114 839 665 174 61.4 42.7 78.3 76.2 89.5 90.7 90.9 85.5 41.3 64.6 17.6 61.1 42.3 77.6 76.1 89.6 90.8 91.1 85.5 40.7 63.9 17.1 60.8 41.7 77.0 76.0 89.7 90.7 91.3 85.6 40.0 63.1 16.6 60.2 40.8 76.3 75.9 89.8 90.9 91.4 85.6 39.3 62.7 16.2 Women, 16 and over.................................. 6,609 6,842 7,072 7,297 56.3 57.0 57.7 58.3 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ve r............................................ 1,562 510 1,052 6,099 4,384 2,116 1,357 911 663 526 137 1,575 508 1,067 6,334 4,591 2,222 1,441 928 676 538 138 1,579 504 1,075 6,568 4,805 2,322 1,536 947 688 547 141 1,583 501 1,082 6,796 5,015 2,420 1,634 961 699 555 144 53.2 39.3 64.2 58.4 70.2 74.2 71.0 61.3 25.9 44.0 10.0 53.8 39.9 64.5 59.0 71.1 75.4 72.1 61.6 25.8 43.9 9.9 54.3 40.4 64.8 59.7 72.1 76.5 73.1 62.1 25.7 43.8 9.8 54.3 40.7 65.3 60.6 73.2 77.1 74.6 62.2 25.4 43.4 9.9 B la c k a n d o th e r 129 C -1 . C ivilian la b o r fo r c e an d la b o r fo r c e p a rtic ip a tio n ra te s b y a g e , s ex, a n d ra c e , 1982 to 2 0 0 0 — C o n tin u e d (Numbers in thousands) Labor force particpation rate Civilian labor force Sex, age, and race Percent Number 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Middle growth path—Continued 16 20 25 55 Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 116,690 118,376 119,846 to 2 4 ................................................... 24,091 23,824 23,442 and o ver............................................. 108,108 109,663 111,092 77,834 79,929 81,924 to 5 4 .................................................. and o ver............................................. 14,765 14,623 14,480 121,201 23,011 112,533 83,875 14,315 122,375 22,607 113,965 85,616 14,152 66.8 73.6 67.3 82.8 30.9 67.1 73.8 67.5 83.3 30.4 67.4 74.3 67.8 83.8 29.9 67.7 74.8 68.0 84.2 29.4 67.9 75.3 68.2 84.6 29.0 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ver............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 49 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ve r............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 64,136 12,318 4,375 1,932 2,443 7,943 59,761 42,915 18,230 9,246 8,984 14,780 8,243 6,537 9,905 5,238 4,667 8,903 7,049 4,196 2,853 1,854 1,046 533 275 64,678 12,102 4,426 1,989 2,437 7,676 60,252 43,781 18,404 9,217 9,187 15,276 8,205 7,071 10,101 5,423 4,678 8,795 6,940 4,133 2,807 1,855 1,052 528 275 65,131 11,830 4,426 1,931 2,495 7,404 60,705 44,614 18,503 9,156 9,347 15,646 8,341 7,305 10,465 5,741 4,724 8,687 6,839 4,064 2,775 1,848 1,048 524 276 65,542 11,542 4,365 1,797 2,568 7,177 61,177 45,433 18,537 9,079 9,458 16,133 8,517 7,616 10,763 5,967 4,796 8,567 6,728 3,995 2,733 1,839 1,038 525 276 65,880 11,282 4,216 1,733 2,483 7,066 61,664 46,147 18,453 8,925 9,528 16,672 8,734 7,938 11,022 6,156 4,866 8,451 6,625 3,922 2,703 1,826 1,019 531 276 77.6 76.8 63.4 54.0 73.7 86.8 78.8 94.0 94.6 93.9 95.3 95.3 95.4 95.3 90.9 92.6 89.2 42.4 69.2 79.8 57.9 17.2 25.4 17.6 75 77.4 76.5 63.5 54.2 73.9 86.7 78.7 93.9 94.5 93.7 95.3 95.3 95.3 95.3 90.9 92.5 89.1 41.7 68.8 79.5 57.4 16.8 24.8 17.3 74 77.3 76.5 64.0 54.3 74.2 86.6 78.5 93.9 94.4 93.6 95.2 95.3 95.2 95.3 90.9 92.4 89.1 41.0 68.3 79.2 56.9 16.5 24.2 17.1 73 77.3 76.7 64.6 54.4 74.3 86.5 78.4 93.8 94.3 93.5 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.4 90.8 92.3 89.1 40.3 67.9 78.9 56.4 16.2 23.7 16.8 7 -| 77.2 76.8 64.7 54.5 74.3 86.4 78.3 93.7 94.3 93.4 95.1 95.2 95.1 95.4 90.8 92.2 89.0 39.6 .67.5 78.7 55.9 15.8 23.2 16.6 70 Women, 16 and over .............................. 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ve r............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ve r............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 52,554 11,773 4,207 1,807 2,400 7,566 48,347 34,919 15,440 8,211 7,229 12,252 6,888 5,364 7,227 3,929 3,298 5,862 4,674 2,787 1,887 1,188 748 285 155 53,698 11,722 4,287 1,874 2,413 7,435 49,411 36,148 15,850 8,351 7,499 12,858 6,993 5,865 7,440 4,106 3,334 5,828 4,624 2,753 1,871 1,204 762 284 158 54,715 11,612 4,328 1,839 2,489 7,284 50,387 37,310 16,180 8,447 7,733 13,359 7,228 6,131 7,771 4,381 3,390 5,793 4,579 2,722 1,857 1,214 771 283 160 55,659 11,469 4,303 1,734 2,569 7,166 51,356 38,442 16,431 8,506 7,925 13,953 7,492 6,461 8,058 4,593 3,465 5,748 4,527 2,688 1,839 1,221 775 285 161 56,495 11,325 4,194 1,685 2,509 7,131 52,301 39,469 16,568 8,493 8,075 14,581 7,779 6,802 8,320 4,780 3,540 5,701 4,476 2,650 1,826 1,225 772 290 163 57.2 70.5 60.5 51.9 69.2 77.7 56.9 72.3 76.4 79.4 73.3 74.2 74.9 73.4 62.2 65.1 59.1 21.8 41.6 49.4 33.8 7.6 14.5 6.9 2.4 57.9 71.2 61.2 52.7 69.9 78.7 57.6 73.3 77.6 80.9 74.3 75.4 76.3 74.5 62.8 65.8 59.5 21.6 41.7 49.5 33.8 7.6 14.4 6.8 2.4 58.5 72.1 62.2 53.4 70.8 79.7 58.2 74.2 78.8 82.2 75.3 76.6 77.5 75.5 63.4 66.4 59.8 21.3 41.7 49.5 33.8 7.5 14.3 6.7 2.4 59.1 73.1 63.3 54.0 71.5 80.6 58.7 75.1 79.8 83.5 76.2 77.7 78.7 76.5 63.8 67.0 60.1 21.0 41.7 49.6 33.8 7.4 14.2 6.7 2.4 59.6 73.9 63.9 54.7 72.1 81.4 59.2 75.9 80.7 84.6 77.0 78.6 79.8 77.3 64.3 67.6 60.4 20.7 41.7 49.7 33.8 7.3 14.1 6.6 2.4 101,646 102,949 104,054 105,039 105,867 67.2 67.5 67.8 68.1 68.3 57,022 57,599 57,800 78.4 78.3 78.2 78.2 78.1 White Total, 16 and o v e r............................... Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 56,625 57,334 130 C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Middle growth path—Continued 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 54 ................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 10,800 3,908 6,892 52,717 37,762 15,857 13,137 8,768 8,063 6,382 1,681 10,605 3,955 6,650 53,067 38,460 15,964 13,561 8,935 7,957 6,274 1,683 10,356 3,951 6,405 53,383 39,132 16,007 13,857 9,268 7,846 6,170 1,676 10,085 3,887 6,198 53,712 39,786 15,994 14,261 9,531 7,728 6,059 1,669 9,843 3,746 6,097 54,054 40,342 15,876 14,709 9,757 7,615 5,958 1,657 80.1 68.3 88.8 79.3 94.6 95.2 95.8 91.7 42.9 70.1 17.3 80.1 68.6 88.9 79.1 94.5 95.1 95.8 91.6 42.1 69.7 17.0 80.3 69.4 88.9 79.0 94.4 95.0 95.8 91.6 41.4 69.3 16.7 80.7 70.2 89.0 78.8 94.3 94.9 95.7 91.5 40.7 68.9 16.4 81.0 70.6 89.0 78.7 94.3 94.8 95.7 91.5 40.0 68.5 16.0 Women, 16 and over.................................. 45,021 45,927 46,720 47,440 48,067 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.8 59.3 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 19 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 54 ................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 10,188 3,702 6,486 41,319 29,680 12,926 10,517 6,237 5,153 4,111 1,042 10,132 3,767 6,365 42,160 30,686 13,245 11,026 6,415 5,109 4,055 1,054 10,020 3,794 6,226 42,926 31,636 13,494 11,431 6,711 5,064 4,003 1,061 9,874 3,760 6,114 43,680 32,556 13,675 11,919 6,962 5,010 3,944 1,066 9,731 3,652 6,079 44,415 33,379 13,757 12,438 7,184 4,957 3,889 1,068 73.8 64.7 80.1 56.3 72.0 76.0 74.0 62.2 21.4 41.4 7.4 74.7 65.6 81.4 57.0 73.0 77.3 75.3 62.7 21.1 41.4 7.3 75.8 66.8 82.6 57.6 74.0 78.4 76.5 63.3 20.9 41.4 7.3 76.9 68.1 83.6 58.1 74.9 79.4 77.6 63.8 20.6 41.4 7.2 78.0 69.0 84.6 58.6 75.7 80.4 78.6 64.3 20.3 41.4 7.1 Total, 16 and o v e r............................... 15,044 15,427 15,792 16,162 16,508 64.7 65.0 65.2 65.5 65.8 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 7,511 7,656 7,797 7,943 8,080 71.8 71.6 71.5 71.5 71.5 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,518 467 1,051 7,044 5,153 2,373 1,643 1,137 840 667 173 1,497 471 1,026 7,185 5,321 2,440 1,715 1,166 838 666 172 1,474 475 999 7,322 5,482 2,496 1,789 1,197 841 669 172 1,457 478 979 7,465 5,647 2,543 1,872 1,232 839 669 170 1,439 470 969 7,610 5,805 2,577 1,963 1,265 836 667 169 59.3 39.9 75.7 75.8 89.9 90.9 91.5 85.7 38.7 62.0 15.8 58.2 39.2 74.9 75.7 90.0 91.0 91.6 85.7 37.9 61.3 15.3 57.4 38.9 74.3 75.6 90.0 91.0 91.7 85.7 37.3 60.8 14.9 57.0 39.0 73.6 75.5 90.1 91.1 91.8 85.9 36.7 60.2 14.4 56.6 38.7 73.1 75.4 90.2 91.2 91.9 85.9 35.9 59.6 14.0 Women, 16 and over.................................. 7,533 7,771 7,995 8,219 8,428 59.0 59.6 60.1 60.6 61.1 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 54 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ve r............................................ 1,585 505 1,080 7,028 5,239 2,514 1,735 990 709 563 146 1,590 520 1,070 7,251 5,462 2,605 1,832 10,250 719 569 150 1,592 534 1,058 7,461 5,674 2,686 1,928 1,060 729 576 153 1,595 543 1,052 7,676 5,886 2,756 2,034 1,096 738 583 155 1,594 542 1,052 7,886 6,090 2,811 2,143 1,136 744 587 157 55.0 40.9 65.6 60.9 74.0 78.7 75.3 62.9 25.2 43.8 9.5 55.1 41.2 65.9 61.5 74.9 79.7 76.2 63.3 25.1 43.9 9.5 55.3 41.8 66.2 62.0 75.7 80.6 77.1 63.8 24.8 43.8 9.4 55.7 42.4 66.5 62.5 76.4 81.5 77.8 64.1 24.6 43.8 9.3 56.1 42.9 66.8 62.9 77.0 82.3 78.5 64.5 24.4 43.8 9.2 B la c k a n d o th e r 131 C=1. Civilian labor fore® and labor fore© participation rates by ag©, s ®k , and race, WB2 to 2000—-Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Middle growth path—Continued 16 20 25 55 Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 123,532 124,483 125,387 to 24 .................................................. 22,380 22,135 21,983 and o ver............................................. 115,430 116,504 117,338 87,113 88,389 89,477 to 5 4 .................................................. and over ............................................. 14,039 13,959 13,927 126,423 21,899 118,210 90,603 13,921 127,542 21,846 119,139 91,779 13,917 68.1 75.7 68.4 84.9 28.6 68.2 75.9 68.5 85.1 28.3 68.3 76.1 68.6 85.2 28.1 68.4 76.4 68.7 85.3 27.9 68.6 76.5 68.8 85.5 27.8 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ve r............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ve r............................................. 55 to 6 4 .............................................. 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 66,244 11,119 4,041 1,746 2,295 7,078 62,203 46,762 18,262 8,651 9,611 17,245 8,904 8,341 11,255 6,268 4,987 8,363 6,553 3,894 2,659 1,810 1,000 535 275 66,551 10,951 3,963 1,762 2,201 6,988 62,588 47,306 17,958 8,372 9,586 17,413 9,099 8,314 11,935 6,769 5,166 8,294 6,504 3,895 2,609 1,790 973 543 274 66,875 10,839 3,988 1,777 2,211 6,851 62,887 47,780 17,616 8,087 9,529 17,712 9,257 8,455 12,452 6,983 5,469 8,256 6,482 3,925 2,557 1,774 953 547 274 67,223 10,731 4,059 1,829 2,230 6,672 63,164 48,259 17,302 7,848 9,454 18,005 9,365 8,640 12,952 7,266 5,686 8,233 6,482 3,975 2,507 1,751 930 547 274 67,611 10,641 4,144 1,901 2,243 6,497 63,467 48,758 17,029 7,727 9,302 18,297 9,434 8,863 13,432 7,563 5,869 8,212 6,479 4,025 2,454 1,733 913 543 277 77.2 76.8 64.4 54.8 74.2 86.3 78.2 93.7 94.2 93.3 95.0 95.2 95.0 95.4 90.7 92.2 89.0 39.0 67.1 78.4 55.5 15.5 22.7 16.4 6.8 77.1 76.7 64.3 55.1 74.2 86.2 78.1 93.6 94.1 93.2 95.0 95.2 95.0 95.4 90.7 92.1 88.9 38.5 66.9 78.2 55.0 15.2 22.3 16.1 6.7 77.0 76.6 64.5 55.3 74.4 86.1 78.0 93.5 94.1 93.1 94.9 95.1 94.9 95.4 90.7 92.1 88.9 38.2 66.7 78.0 54.6 14.9 21.9 16.0 6.6 76.9 76.4 64.7 55.6 74.7 85.9 77.8 93.5 94.0 93.0 94.9 95.1 94.8 95.4 90.6 92.0 88.9 37.9 66.6 77.8 54.3 14.6 21.5 15.8 6.5 76.8 76.1 64.7 55.8 74.9 85.7 77.8 93.4 94.0 92.9 94.9 95.1 94.8 95.5 90.6 91.9 88.9 37.6 66.5 77.6 53.9 14.3 21.1 15.6 6.4 Women, 16 and over ............................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and over ............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ve r............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 57,288 11,261 4,061 1,709 2,352 7,200 53,227 40,351 16,566 8,346 8,220 15,239 8,029 7,210 8,546 4,903 3,643 5,676 4,452 2,650 1,802 1,224 767 292 165 57,932 11,184 4,016 1,739 2,277 7,168 53,916 41,083 16,441 8,174 8,267 15,534 8,291 7,243 9,108 5,321 3,787 5,665 4,445 2,668 1,777 1,220 757 297 166 58,512 11,144 4,061 1,763 2,298 7,083 54,451 41,697 16,244 7,972 8,272 15,909 8,502 7,407 9,544 5,525 4,019 5,671 4,455 2,701 1,754 1,216 749 300 167 59,200 11,168 4,154 1,826 2,328 7,014 55,046 42,344 16,085 7,833 8,252 16,281 8,675 7,606 9,978 5,785 4,193 5,688 4,480 2,750 1,730 1,208 738 301 169 59,931 11,205 4,259 1,908 2,351 6,946 55,672 43,021 15,971 7,792 8,179 16,651 8,812 7,839 10,399 6,059 4,340 5,705 4,502 2,799 1,703 1,203 731 300 172 60.0 74.6 64.2 55.4 72.6 82.1 59.7 76.5 81.4 85.6 77.6 79.4 80.7 78.0 64.7 68.1 60.7 20.5 41.8 49.8 33.8 7.2 14.0 6.5 2.3 60.3 75.2 64.7 56.1 73.2 82.6 60.0 76.9 82.1 86.4 78.2 80.1 81.5 78.6 65.2 68.6 61.0 20.4 41.9 49.8 33.8 7.1 14.0 6.5 2.3 60.5 75.6 65.4 56.8 73.9 83.0 60.2 77.3 82.5 87.0 78.7 80.6 82.0 79.1 65.6 69.1 61.2 20.3 42.0 49.9 33.8 7.0 13.9 6.4 2.3 60.8 76.3 65.9 57.4 74.5 84.2 60.5 77.6 83.1 87.8 79.1 81.2 82.6 79.6 65.9 69.5 61.5 20.2 42.2 50.0 33.8 6.9 13.8 6.4 2.3 61.2 77.0 66.3 58.0 75.1 85.3 60.8 78.0 83.7 88.6 79.6 81.7 83.2 80.0 66.2 69.9 61.7 20.2 42.3 50.0 33.8 6.8 13.8 6.4 2.3 106,679 107,304 107,907 108,561 109,292 68.5 68.6 68.7 68.7 68.8 58,614 58,871 78.1 78.0 77.9 77.8 77.7 White Total, 16 and o v e r............................... Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 58,023 58,197 58,392 132 C -1. C ivilian la b o r fo r c e a n d la b o r fo rc e p artic ip a tio n ra te s b y a g e , s ex, a n d ra c e , 1982 to 2 0 0 0 — C o n tin u e d (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1994 1993 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Middle growth path—Continued 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 9,688 3,588 6,100 54,435 40,806 15,666 15,182 9,958 7,529 5,887 1,642 9,529 3,524 6,005 54,673 41,208 15,360 15,268 10,580 7,460 5,836 1,624 9,421 3,555 5,866 54,837 41,551 15,022 15,492 11,037 7,420 5,812 1,608 9,323 3,628 5,695 54,986 41,896 14,712 15,713 11,471 7,395 5,808 1,587 9,242 3,715 5,527 55,156 42,256 14,437 15,937 11,882 7,373 5,804 1,569 81.2 70.6 89.1 78.6 94.2 94.7 95.7 91.4 39.4 68.2 15.7 81.2 70.6 89.1 78.5 94.1 94.6 95.6 91.4 39.0 68.0 15.4 81.3 71.0 89.1 78.4 94.0 94.6 95.6 91.3 38.6 67.9 15.1 81.1 71.2 89.1 78.3 94.0 94.5 95.6 91.2 38.4 67.8 14.8 80.9 71.3 89.0 78.2 93.9 94.4 95.5 91.2 38.1 67.8 14.5 Women, 16 and over.................................. 48,656 49,107 49,515 49,947 50,421 59.7 60.0 60.3 60.5 60.7 16 to 24-..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 9,660 3,527 6,133 45,129 34,070 13,718 12,978 7,374 4,926 3,861 1,065 9,573 3,485 6,088 45,622 34,629 13,578 13,177 7,874 4,905 3,846 1,059 9,527 3,531 5,996 45,984 35,086 13,373 13,465 8,248 4,902 3,848 1,054 9,484 3,617 5,867 46,330 35,554 13,188 13,753 8,613 4,909 3,864 1,045 9,453 3,714 5,739 46,707 36,052 13,044 14,046 8,962 4,916 3,879 1,037 78.8 69.4 85.4 59.1 76.3 81.1 79.5 64.7 20.1 41.5 7.0 79.4 69.9 86.1 59.4 76.8 81.7 80.2 65.2 19.9 41.6 6.9 79.9 70.6 86.7 59.6 77.1 82.2 80.8 65.6 19.8 41.7 6.8 80.3 71.2 87.2 59.8 77.4 82.7 81.3 65.9 19.8 41.9 6.7 80.6 71.6 87.8 60.0 77.8 83.2 81.9 66.3 19.7 42.1 6.6 Total, 16 and o v e r............................... 16,853 17,179 17,480 17,862 18,250 66.0 66.2 66.3 66.6 67.0 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 8,221 8,354 8,483 8,609 8,740 71.5 71.5 71.5 71.4 71.3 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,431 453 978 7,768 5,956 2,596 2,063 1,297 834 666 168 1,422 439 983 7,915 6,098 2,598 2,145 1,355 834 668 166 1,418 433 985 8,050 6,229 2,594 2,220 1,415 836 670 166 1,408 431 977 8,178 6,363 2,590 2,292 1,481 838 674 164 1,399 429 970 8,311 6,502 2,592 2,360 1,550 839 675 164 56.3 38.0 72.6 75.4 90.3 91.2 92.0 86.0 35.3 59.0 13.6 56.0 37.3 72.1 75.3 90.3 91.4 92.1 85.9 34.8 58.6 13.2 55.7 36.9 71.6 75.2 90.4 91.4 92.1 86.0 34.4 58.1 13.0 55.2 36.6 71.2 75.1 90.4 91.5 92.2 86.0 33.9 57.7 12.6 54.5 35.9 70.8 75.1 90.5 91.5 92.3 86.1 33.5 57.4 12.3 Women, 16 and over.................................. 8,632 8,825 8,997 9,253 9,510 61.5 61.8 62.0 62.8 63.5 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ver................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ver................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,601 534 1,067 8,098 6,281 2,848 2,261 1,172 750 591 159 1,611 531 1,080 8,294 6,454 2,863 2,357 1,234 760 599 161 1,617 530 1,087 8,467 6,611 2,871 2,444 1,296 769 607 162 1,684 537 1,147 8,716 6,790 2,897 2,528 1,365 779 616 163 1,752 545 1,207 8,965 6,969 2,927 2,605 1,437 789 623 166 56.5 43.1 66.9 63.3 77.5 83.0 79.1 64.8 24.1 43.7 9.1 56.9 43.4 67.2 63.5 77.9 83.6 79.6 65.1 24.0 43.8 9.0 57.1 43.6 67.3 63.7 78.2 84.0 80.0 65.4 23.9 43.7 8.8 59.5 43.9 71.4 64.5 78.7 85.0 80.4 65.7 23.7 43.8 8.7 61.8 44.1 75.4 65.2 79.2 86.0 80.8 66.0 23.6 43.9 8.6 Black and other 133 0-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Sex, age, and race 1996 1997 Percent 1999 1998 2000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Middle growth path—Continued 16 20 25 55 Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 128,834 130,031 131,345 21,823 22,176 22,786 to 2 4 .................................................. and over............................................. 120,097 120,896 121,798 92,927 93,626 93,914 to 5 4 .................................................. and over............................................. 14,084 14,229 14,645 132,741 23,536 122,820 94,240 14,965 134,155 24,276 123,946 94,634 15,245 68.7 76.6 68.9 85.7 27.8 68.8 76.8 69.0 85.8 27.9 68.9 77.2 69.1 85.9 28.2 69.0 77.6 69.2 86.1 28.5 69.1 78.1 69.3 86.2 28.7 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ver............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and over............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and o v e r.................................... 68,125 10,567 4,301 1,992 2,309 6,266 63,824 49,234 16,766 7,739 9,027 18,554 9,514 9,040 13,914 7,939 5,975 8,324 6,617 4,184 2,433 1,707 891 538 278 68,544 10,687 4,492 2,089 2,403 6,195 64,052 49,487 16,400 7,651 8,749 18,727 9,486 9,241 14,360 7,907 6,453 8,370 6,688 4,260 2,428 1,682 870 530 282 69,064 10,938 4,691 2,168 2,523 6,247 64,373 49,518 15,988 7,522 8,466 18,834 9,431 9,403 14,696 8,035 6,661 8,608 6,952 4,508 2,444 1,656 848 525 283 69,629 11,257 4,873 2,222 2,651 6,384 64,756 49,587 15,574 7,343 8,231 18,873 9,356 9,517 15,140 8,205 6,935 8,785 7,154 4,681 2,473 1,631 828 518 285 70,214 11,569 5,011 2,256 2,755 6,558 65,203 49,705 15,279 7,164 8,115 18,797 9,206 9,591 15,629 8,410 7,219 8,940 7,328 4,824 2,504 1,612 811 514 287 76.7 75.7 64.9 56.1 75.1 85.6 77.7 93.4 93.9 92.9 94.8 95.1 94.8 95.5 90.5 91.9 88.8 37.6 66.5 77.2 53.6 14.0 20.8 15.4 6.3 76.6 75.5 65.1 56.3 75.3 85.4 77.6 93.3 93.8 92.8 94.8 95.1 94.7 95.5 90.4 91.8 88.8 37.6 66.5 77.3 53.4 13.8 20.5 15.3 6.3 76.5 75.4 65.3 56.4 75.5 85.4 77.5 93.2 93.8 92.7 94.8 95.1 94.7 95.5 90.4 91.7 88.8 38.0 66.6 77.2 53.2 13.6 20.2 15.2 6.2 76.5 75.5 65.6 56.6 75.8 85.4 77.4 93.2 93.7 92.6 94.7 95.1 94.6 95.5 90.4 91.7 88.8 38.3 66.6 77.1 53.0 13.4 20.0 15.1 6.2 76.4 75.6 65.8 56.6 75.9 85.4 77.4 93.1 93.7 92.6 94.7 95.1 94.6 95.5 90.3 91.7 88.8 38.5 66.6 77.0 52.8 13.2 19.9 15.0 6.1 Women, 16 and over ............................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ver............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 .............................................. 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ver............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over ................................ . 60,709 11,256 4,436 2,008 2,428 6,820 56,273 43,693 15,872 7,875 7,997 16,997 8,952 8,045 10,824 6,395 4,429 5,760 4,570 2,870 1,700 1,190 719 298 173 61,487 11,489 4,643 2,115 2,528 6,846 56,844 44,139 15,677 7,869 7,808 17,276 9,001 8,275 11,186 6,405 4,781 5,859 4,681 2,972 1,709 1,178 707 294 177 62,281 11,848 4,856 2,203 2,653 6,992 57,425 44,396 15,428 7,819 7,609 17,490 9,017 8,473 11,478 6,536 4,942 6,037 4,872 3,144 1,728 1,165 696 291 178 63,112 12,279 5,048 2,263 2,785 7,231 58,064 44,653 15,168 7,714 7,454 17,639 9,007 8,632 11,846 6,692 5,154 6,180 5,026 3,269 1,757 1,154 686 288 180 63,941 12,707 5,198 2,304 2,894 7,509 58,743 44,929 14,992 7,604 7,388 17,693 8,938 8,755 12,244 6,872 5,372 6,305 5,160 3,374 1,786 1,145 675 287 183 61.5 77.5 66.8 58.5 75.7 86.5 61.1 78.4 84.5 89.5 80.0 82.2 83.8 80.5 66.6 70.3 61.9 20.2 42.4 50.1 33.8 6.7 13.7 6.3 2.2 61.8 78.1 67.3 59.0 76.1 87.8 61.4 78.7 85.2 90.4 80.5 82.7 84.4 81.0 66.7 70.6 62.0 20.4 42.6 50.1 33.7 6.6 13.7 6.3 2.2 62.0 78.9 67.7 59.4 76.6 89.1 61.6 79.1 85.8 91.2 80.9 83.2 85.0 81.4 66.9 70.9 62.2 20.7 42.8 50.1 33.7 6.5 13.6 6.2 2.2 62.3 79.7 68.2 59.7 77.0 90.3 61.9 79.3 86.5 92.1 81.4 83.7 85.6 81.9 67.0 71.1 62.3 20.9 42.9 50.2 33.7 6.5 13.6 6.2 2.2 62.6 80.5 68.5 59.9 77.3 91.5 62.1 79.6 87.1 93.0 81.9 84.2 86.2 82.4 67.1 71.3 62.4 21.1 43.0 50.2 33.7 6.4 13.6 6.3 2.2 110,125 110,995 111,915 112,908 113,914 68.9 69.0 69.1 69.2 69.3 60,333 60,771 77.6 77.5 77.5 77.4 77.4 White Total, 16 and o v e r............................... Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 59,184 59,533 59,912 134 C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1996 1997 1999 1998 2000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Middle growth path—Continued 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 9,185 3,865 5,320 55,319 42,590 14,165 16,132 12,293 7,409 5,865 1,544 9,307 4,045 5,262 55,488 42,721 13,803 16,246 12,672 7,505 5,985 1,520 9,546 4,231 5,315 55,681 42,641 13,400 16,300 12,941 7,725 6,231 1,494 9,841 4,401 5,440 55,932 42,607 13,002 16,297 13,308 7,885 6,415 1,470 10,129 4,530 5,599 56,241 42,620 12,713 16,193 13,714 8,022 6,571 1,451 80.7 71.5 89.0 78.1 93.8 94.4 95.5 91.2 38.1 67.8 14.3 80.5 71.7 88.9 78.0 93.8 94.3 95.5 91.0 38.2 67.8 14.0 80.5 72.0 88.9 77.9 93.7 94.2 95.5 91.0 38.7 67.9 13.8 80.6 72.3 88.9 77.8 93.6 94.2 95.5 91.0 39.0 68.0 13.6 80.7 72.5 88.9 77.8 93.6 94.2 95.5 90.9 39.2 68.0 13.5 Women, 16 and over.................................. 50,941 51,462 52,003 52,575 53,143 61.0 61.2 61.4 61.7 61.9 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over...................................... ..... 9,449 3,875 5,574 47,066 36,538 12,907 14,319 9,312 4,954 3,931 1,023 9,610 4,062 5,548 47,400 36,819 12,685 14,528 9,606 5,033 4,024 1,009 9,886 4,255 5,631 47,748 36,927 12,417 14,679 9,831 5,190 4,195 995 10,220 4,430 5,790 48,145 37,043 12,143 14,775 10,125 5,312 4,329 983 10,548 4,567 5,981 48,576 37,183 11,947 14,789 10,447 5,412 4,440 972 80.9 72.1 88.3 60.2 78.2 83.9 82.4 66.6 19.7 42.2 6.5 81.1 72.5 88.9 60.4 78.5 84.5 82.9 66.7 19.9 42.4 6.4 81.5 73.0 89.4 60.6 78.8 85.1 83.5 66.9 20.2 42.6 6.3 82.0 73.4 90.0 60.8 79.0 85.6 84.0 67.0 20.5 42.7 6.2 82.4 73.8 90.5 61.0 79.3 86.2 84.6 67.1 20.7 42.8 6.2 Total, 16 and o v e r............................... 18,709 19,036 19,430 19,833 20,241 67.3 67.6 67.8 68.1 68.3 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 8,941 9,011 9,152 9,296 9,443 71.1 71.0 70.9 70.8 70.7 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ver............................................ 1,382 436 946 8,505 6,644 2,601 2,422 1,621 915 752 163 1,380 447 933 8,564 6,766 2,597 2,481 1,688 865 703 162 1,392 460 932 8,692 6,877 2,588 2,534 1,755 883 721 162 1,416 472 944 8,824 6,980 2,572 2,576 1,832 900 739 161 1,440 481 959 8,962 7,085 2,566 2,604 1,915 918 757 161 53.8 35.6 70.3 75.0 90.4 91.5 92.4 86.1 34.5 57.9 12.0 53.1 35.4 69.9 75.0 90.4 91.5 92.4 86.2 33.2 57.1 11.8 52.7 35.3 69.7 74.9 90.4 91.5 92.5 86.2 33.2 57.0 11.6 52.6 35.3 69.5 74.8 90.4 91.5 92.6 86.2 33.2 56.9 11.4 52.5 35.3 69.4 74.7 90.4 91.5 92.6 86.1 33.1 56.8 11.2 Women, 16 and over.................................. 9,768 10,025 10,278 10,537 10,798 64.1 64.7 65.3 65.8 66.4 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ver................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,807 561 1,246 9,207 7,155 2,965 2,678 1,512 806 639 167 1,879 581 1,298 9,444 7,320 2,992 2,748 1,580 826 657 169 1,962 601 1,361 9,677 7,469 3,011 2,811 1,647 847 677 170 2,059 618 1,441 9,919 7,610 3,025 2,864 1,721 868 697 171 2,159 631 1,528 10,167 7,746 3,045 2,904 1,797 893 720 173 63.8 44.3 79.4 65.9 79.7 87.1 81.2 66.3 23.6 43.9 8.5 65.7 44.6 83.5 66.6 80.1 88.1 81.5 66.5 23.7 44.0 8.5 67.8 44.8 87.6 67.2 80.5 89.2 81.9 66.6 23.7 44.1 8.4 69.9 45.0 91.6 67.8 80.8 90.2 82.3 66.7 23.8 44.2 8.3 72.1 45.1 95.7 68.4 81.2 91.2 82.7 66.7 23.9 44.3 8.2 B la c k a n d o th e r 135 <S=1„ Civilian 8ab®r tore® amdl Bab®r tore® par£0©DpsiSl©ini rates by ag@, sex, arad raee, 1082 tt@ 2000 (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985 High growth path Total, 16 and o v e r............................. to 2 4 ................................................... and over............................................. to 5 4 .................................................. and o ve r................. ........................... 110,926 25,505 101,583 70,187 15,234 113,544 25,435 104,394 72,753 15,356 116,090 25,274 107,186 75,383 15,433 118,252 25,108 109,472 77,636 15,508 66.1 72.0 66.6 81.1 33.2 67.0 73.2 67.5 82.3 33.1 67.8 74.3 68.3 83.5 32.9 68.4 75.2 68.9 84.4 32.7 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 .......................................... . 20 and over............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ver............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and o v e r.................................... 62,435 13,383 4,876 2,021 2,855 8,507 57,559 39,726 17,217 8,902 8,315 12,651 7,030 5,621 9,858 4,944 4,914 9,326 7,339 4,405 2,934 1,987 1,139 562 286 63,288 13,244 4,752 1,964 2,788 8,492 58,536 40,649 17,562 9,083 8,479 13,237 7,274 5,963 9,850 4,997 4,853 9,395 7,384 4,394 2,990 2,011 1,147 570 294 64,079 13,065 4,603 1,941 2,662 8,462 59,476 41,577 17,900 9,217 8,683 13,807 7,596 6,211 9,870 5,079 4,791 9,437 7,394 4,368 3,026 2,043 1,165 577 301 64,825 12,873 4,521 1,957 2,564 8,352 60,304 42,473 18,239 9,310 8,929 14,353 7,932 6,421 9,881 5,160 4,721 9,479 7,393 4,357 3,036 2,086 1,194 582 310 78.5 77.1 63.8 53.5 73.7 87.5 80.1 94.6 95.6 95.0 96.3 95.8 96.2 95.2 91.6 93.4 89.8 46.3 72.5 82.1 61.7 19.8 29.6 19.4 8.7 78.8 77.7 64.4 54.3 74.2 87.8 80.2 94.8 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.9 96.4 95.3 91.6 93.4 89.8 46.1 72.5 82.2 61.7 19.7 29.6 19.4 8.7 O 79.0 78.3 64.9 55.0 74.8 88.1 80.4 94.9 95.9 95.3 96.6 95.9 96.5 95.3 91.7 93.5 89.8 45.8 72.4 82.2 61.7 19.7 29.6 19.4 8.7 79.2 78.7 65.3 55.7 75.3 88.4 80.4 95.0 96.1 95.4 96.7 96.0 96.6 95.4 91.7 93.5 89.9 45.5 72.4 82.2 61.7 19.7 29.6 19.4 8.7 Women, 16 and o v e r............................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ve r............................................ 25 to 5 4 .................. ................................ 25 to 3 4 ................................... ........... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 .............................................. 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ver............................................. 55 to 6 4 .............................................. 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ............................... ........... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and o v e r.................................... 48,491 12,122 4,467 1,800 2,667 7,655 44,024 30,461 13,654 7,295 6,359 9,879 5,459 4,420 6,928 3,549 3,379 5,908 4,747 2,871 1,876 1,161 717 298 146 50,256 12,191 4,398 1,762 2,636 7,793 45,858 32,104 14,468 7,727 6,741 10,630 5,819 4,811 7,006 3,642 3,364 5,961 4,788 2,860 1,928 1,173 722 302 149 52,011 12,209 4,301 1,755 2,546 7,908 47,710 33,806 15,296 8,132 7,164 11,405 6,256 5,149 7,105 3,760 3,345 5,996 4,803 2,839 1,964 1,193 734 305 154 53,427 12,235 4,259 1,782 2,477 7,976 49,168 35,163 15,870 8,374 7,496 12,094 6,679 5,415 7,199 3,878 3,321 6,029 4,812 2,829 1,983 1,217 752 306 159 54.9 67.2 58.0 48.9 66.4 74.0 54.6 68.4 72.2 74.1 70.1 69.8 69.8 69.8 60.4 63.0 57.9 23.0 42.2 49.0 34.7 8.0 14.9 7.5 2.6 56.3 68.8 59.2 49.9 67.5 75.8 56.1 70.6 75.1 77.1 73.0 72.0 72.1 71.9 61.2 64.0 58.4 22.9 42.3 49.2 35.0 8.0 14.9 7.5 2.6 57.7 70.4 60.1 51.0 68.5 77.6 57.5 72.8 78.1 80.1 76.0 74.2 74.4 74.0 62.0 64.9 58.9 22.8 42.4 49.3 35.3 7.9 14.9 7.5 2.6 58.7 71.9 61.0 52.1 69.6 79.5 58.5 74.3 79.7 81.7 77.6 75.9 76.3 75.4 62.7 65.9 59.4 22.6 42.6 49.5 35.6 7.9 14.9 7.4 2.6 Whit© Total, 16 and o v e r............................... 96,985 99,039 101,015 102,667 66.2 67.1 67.8 68.4 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 55,288 55,915 56,483 57,014 79.1 79.3 79.5 79.6 16 20 25 55 136 C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985 High growth path—Continued 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ver............................................ 11,669 4,286 7,383 51,002 35,161 15,111 11,283 8,767 8,458 6,662 1,796 11,501 4,157 7,344 51,758 35,905 15,364 11,800 8,741 8,509 6,691 1,818 11,300 4,006 7,294 52,477 36,651 15,615 12,293 8,743 8,532 6,687 1,845 11,090 3,920 7,170 53,094 37,370 15,870 12,759 8,741 8,554 6,673 1,881 79.0 66.8 88.3 80.4 95.2 96.2 96.3 92.2 46.6 73.1 19.9 79.6 67.4 88.6 80.5 95.3 96.3 96.4 92.2 46.4 73.0 19.8 80.1 67.8 88.9 80.5 95.4 96.4 96.4 92.3 46.1 72.9 19.7 80.4 68.2 89.1 80.6 95.5 96.5 96.4 92.3 45.8 72.9 19.7 Women, 16 and over.................................. 41,697 43,124 44,532 45,653 54.5 55.8 57.2 58.2 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and o ver................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 10,493 3,930 6,563 37,767 25,966 11,481 8,479 6,006 5,238 4,213 1,025 10,515 3,853 6,662 39,271 27,335 12,147 9,126 6,062 5,274 4,239 1,035 10,494 3,751 6,743 40,781 28,745 12,826 9,782 6,137 5,293 4,241 1,052 10,472 3,702 6,770 41,951 29,872 13,297 10,364 6,211 5,309 4,239 1,070 69.5 61.4 75.4 53.8 67.8 71.5 69.2 60.2 22.6 41.9 7.8 71.1 62.5 77.2 55.3 70.1 74.5 71.5 61.0 22.5 42.0 7.8 72.7 63.5 79.1 56.7 72.3 77.5 73.7 61.7 22.4 42.1 7.7 74.2 64.4 80.9 57.7 73.8 79.2 75.4 62.5 22.2 42.3 7.7 Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 13,941 14,505 15,075 15,585 65.2 66.4 67.6 68.5 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 7,147 7,373 7,596 7,811 74.1 74.9 75.6 76.2 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ve r............................................ 1,714 590 1,124 6,557 4,565 2,106 1,368 1,091 868 677 191 1,743 595 1,148 6,778 4,744 2,198 1,437 1,109 886 693 193 1,765 597 1,168 6,999 4,926 2,285 1,514 1,127 905 707 198 1,783 601 1,182 7,210 5,103 2,369 1,594 1,140 925 720 205 66.1 47.9 82.5 78.0 90.5 91.9 91.8 86.5 43.4 67.2 19.2 67.3 49.2 83.1 78.5 91.0 92.4 92.2 86.8 43.4 67.3 19.1 68.5 50.5 83.8 78.9 91.4 92.8 92.5 87.2 43.5 67.5 19.1 69.4 51.4 84.5 79.3 91.8 93.3 92.9 87.6 43.4 67.9 19.1 Women, 16 and over.................................. 6,794 7,132 7,479 7,774 57.8 59.4 61.0 62.2 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,629 537 1,092 6,257 4,495 2,173 1,400 922 670 534 136 1,676 545 1,131 6,587 4,769 2,321 1,504 944 687 549 138 1,715 550 1,165 6,929 5,061 2,470 1,623 968 703 562 141 1,763 557 1,206 7,217 5,291 2,573 1,730 988 720 573 147 55.5 41.4 66.6 59.9 71.9 76.2 73.3 62.0 26.2 44.6 10.0 57.3 42.8 68.4 61.4 73.9 78.7 75.2 62.7 26.2 44.8 9.9 59.0 44.0 70.3 63.0 76.0 81.4 77.3 63.4 26.2 45.0 9.8 60.9 45.1 72.7 64.0 77.1 82.5 78.6 64.1 26.2 45.3 9.9 Black and other 137 C -1 . C ivilian la b o r fo rc e an d la b o r fo r c e p a rtic ip a tio n ra te s b y a g e , s ex, a n d ra c e , 198 2 to 2 0 0 0 — C o n tin u e d (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 High growth path—Continued 16 20 25 55 Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 120,449 122,631 124,603 24,887 24,757 24,503 to 2 4 .................................................. and o ver............................................. 111,608 113,608 115,493 80,035 82,379 84,638 to 5 4 .................................................. 15,527 15,495 15,462 and over............................................. 126,453 24,195 117,385 86,859 15,399 128,123 23,916 119,271 88,873 15,334 69.0 76.0 69.4 85.2 32.5 69.5 76.7 70.0 85.9 32.2 70.1 77.6 70.5 86.6 31.9 70.6 78.7 71.0 87.2 31.7 71.1 79.7 71.4 87.8 31.4 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ver............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 .............................................. 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 44-,.......................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ver............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 65,583 12,654 4,535 2,020 2,515 8,119 61,048 43,441 18,539 9,411 9,128 14,902 8,355 6,547 10,000 5,295 4,705 9,488 7,364 4,323 3,041 2,124 1,221 587 316 66,344 12,496 4,618 2,096 2,522 7,878 61,726 44,384 18,757 9,403 9,354 15,416 8,332 7,084 10,211 5,489 4,722 9,464 7,294 4,276 3,018 2,170 1,256 591 323 67,012 12,276 4,645 2,053 2,592 7,631 62,367 45,298 18,901 9,364 9,537 15,805 8,485 7,320 10,592 5,819 4,773 9,438 7,232 4,222 3,010 2,206 1,280 596 330 67,632 12,042 4,613 1,931 2,682 7,429 63,019 46,196 18,978 9,309 9,669 16,313 8,681 7,632 10,905 6,056 4,849 9,394 7,157 4,168 2,989 2,237 1,295. 605 337 68,174 11,833 4,489 1,879 2,610 7,344 63,685 46,988 18,934 9,173 9,761 16,873 8,916 7,957 11,181 6,256 4,925 9,353 7,090 4,108 2,982 2,263 1,299 621 343 79.3 78.9 65.8 56.4 75.8 88.7 80.5 95.1 96.2 95.5 96.9 96.1 96.7 95.4 91.8 93.6 89.9 45.2 72.3 82.3 61.7 19.7 29.6 19.4 8.7 79.4 79.0 66.3 57.2 76.4 89.0 80.6 95.2 96.3 95.6 97.0 96.2 96.8 95.5 91.9 93.6 90.0 44.9 72.3 82.3 61.7 19.7 29.6 19.4 8.7 79.6 79.4 67.1 57.8 77.1 89.3 80.7 95.3 96.4 95.8 97.1 96.2 96.9 95.5 92.0 93.6 90.0 44.5 72.3 82.3 61.7 19.7 29.6 19.4 8.7 79.8 80.0 68.2 58.4 77.6 89.6 80.8 95.4 96.6 95.9 97.3 96.3 97.0 95.6 92.0 93.7 90.0 44.1 72.2 82.4 61.7 19.7 29.6 19.4 8.7 79.9 80.5 68.8 59.1 78.1 89.8 80.9 95.5 96.7 96.0 97.4 96.4 97.1 95.6 92.1 93.7 90.1 43.8 72.2 82.4 61.7 19.6 29.6 19.4 8.7 Women, 16 and over .............................. 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ver............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ...................................... ........ 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ..................................... ..... 55 and o ver............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and o v e r.................................... 54,866 12,233 4,306 1,853 2,453 7,927 50,560 36,594 16,425 8,620 7,805 12,796 7,185 5,611 7,373 4,029 3,344 6,039 4,800 2,800 2,000 1,239 767 309 163 56,287 12,261 4,405 1,930 2,475 7,856 51,882 37,995 16,910 8,771 8,139 13,471 7,323 6,148 7,614 4,226 3,388 6,031 4,767 2,769 1,998 1,264 788 310 166 57,591 12,227 4,465 1,903 2,562 7,762 53,126 39,340 17,316 8,881 8,435 14,047 7,602 6,445 7,977 4,526 3,451 6,024 4,737 2,739 1,998 1,287 803 313 171 58,821 12,153 4,455 1,802 2,653 7,698 54,366 40,663 17,643 8,955 8,688 14,724 7,912 6,812 8,296 4,760 3,536 6,005 4,700 2,708 1,992 1,305 811 319 175 59,949 12,083 4,363 1,761 2,602 7,720 55,586 41,885 17,853 8,958 8,895 15,444 8,252 7,192 8,588 4,968 3,620 5,981 4,662 2,671 1,991 1,319 813 327 179 59.7 73.3 61.9 53.2 70.7 59.5 81.4 75.7 81.3 83.3 79.2 77.5 78.1 76.8 63.5 66.8 59.9 22.5 42.8 49.6 35.8 7.9 14.9 7.5 2.6 60.7 74.5 62.8 54.2 71.7 60.5 83.2 77.1 82.8 84.9 80.7 79.0 79.9 78.1 64.3 67.7 60.4 22.3 42.9 49.7 36.1 7.9 14.9 7.4 2.6 61.5 75.9 64.1 55.2 72.9 61.3 84.9 78.3 84.3 86.4 82.1 80.5 81.5 79.4 65.0 68.6 60.9 22.1 43.1 49.9 36.4 7.9 14.9 7.5 2.6 62.4 77.4 65.5 56.1 73.9 62.2 86.6 79.4 85.7 87.9 83.5 82.0 83.1 80.6 65.7 69.4 61.3 21.9 43.3 50.0 36.6 7.9 14.9 7.5 2.6 63.2 78.9 66.5 57.1 74.8 63.0 88.1 80.5 86.9 89.2 84.8 83.2 84.6 81.7 66.4 70.2 61.8 21.7 43.4 50.1 36.8 7.9 . 14.9 7.5 2.6 White Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 104,336 105,981 107,434 108,756 109,930 68.9 69.5 70.0 70.5 70.9 58,918 59,245 79.7 79.7 79.9 80.0 80.1 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 57,551 58,081 58,529 138 C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 High growth path—Continued 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 10,857 3,922 6,935 53,629 38,148 16,091 13,225 8,832 8,546 6,632 1,914 10,676 3,974 6,702 54,107 38,898 16,231 13,660 9,007 8,507 6,553 1,954 10,440 3,973 6,467 54,556 39,626 16,306 13,968 9,352 8,463 6,479 1,984 10,182 3,913 6,269 55,005 40,332 16,322 14,385 9,625 8,404 6,394 2,010 9,953 3,775 6,178 55,470 40,939 16,232 14,846 9,861 8,353 6,320 2,033 80.5 68.5 89.4 80.6 95.5 96.6 96.5 92.3 45.4 72.8 19.7 80.6 68.9 89.6 80.7 95.6 96.7 96.5 92.4 45.0 72.8 19.8 80.9 69.7 89.8 80.7 95.6 96.7 96.5 92.4 44.7 72.7 19.7 81.5 70.7 90.0 80.7 95.6 96.8 96.6 92.4 44.2 72.7 19.7 81.9 71.1 90.2 80.8 95.7 96.9 96.6 92.4 43.9 72.7 19.7 Women, 16 and over.................................. 46,785 47,900 48,905 49,838 50,685 59.1 60.1 60.9 61.8 62.5 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ve r............................................ 10,424 3,733 6,691 43,052 31,056 13,751 10,954 6,351 5,305 4,217 1,088 10,404 3,803 6,601 44,097 32,212 14,138 11,522 6,552 5,284 4,175 1,109 10,325 3,834 ■ 6,491 45,071 33,318 14,456 11,988 6,874 5,262 4,135 1,127 10,208 3,801 6,407 46,037 34,402 14,707 12,546 7,149 5,228 4,088 1,140 10,100 3,696 6,404 46,989 35,391 14,856 13,142 7,393 5,194 4,043 1,151 75.5 65.3 82.7 58.7 75.3 80.9 77.1 63.3 22.1 42.4 7.7 76.7 66.2 84.4 59.6 76.7 82.5 78.7 64.0 21.9 42.6 7.7 78.1 67.5 86.1 60.4 77.9 84.0 80.3 64.8 21.7 42.7 7.7 79.5 68.8 87.6 61.3 79.1 85.4 81.7 65.5 21.5 42.9 7.7 80.9 69.8 89.1 62.0 80.2 86.8 83.1 66.2 21.2 43.0 7.6 Total, 16 and o v e r............................... 16,113 16,650 17,169 17,697 18,193 69.3 70.1 70.9 71.7 72.5 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 8,032 8,263 8,483 8,714 8,929 76.8 77.3 77.8 78.4 79.0 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 54 ................................................. 55 and o ver................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ver............................................ 1,797 613 1,184 7,419 5,293 2,448 1,677 1,168 942 732 210 1,820 644 1,176 7,619 5,486 2,526 1,756 1,204 957 741 216 1,836 672 1,164 7,811 5,672 2,595 1,837 1,240 975 753 222 1,860 700 1,160 8,014 5,864 2,656 1,928 1,280 990 763 227 1,880 714 1,166 8,215 6,049 2,702 2,027 1,320 1,000 770 230 70.2 52.4 85.2 79.8 92.3 93.8 93.4 88.1 43.4 68.0 19.1 70.8 53.6 85.9 80.3 92.7 94.2 93.8 88.5 43.3 68.2 19.2 71.6 55.0 86.5 80.6 93.2 94.6 94.2 88.8 43.3 68.5 19.2 72.8 57.1 87.2 81.1 93.6 95.2 94.5 89.3 43.3 68.7 19.3 74.0 58.8 87.9 81.4 94.0 95.6 94.9 89.6 43.0 68.8 19.1 Women, 16 and over.................................. 8,081 8,387 8,686 8,983 9,264 63.3 64.3 65.3 66.2 67.1 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ver............................................ 1,809 573 1,236 7,508 5,538 2,674 1,842 1,022 734 583 151 1,857 602 1,255 7,785 5,783 2,772 1,949 1,062 747 592 155 1,902 631 1,271 8,055 6,022 2,860 2,059 1,103 762 602 160 1,945 654 1,291 8,329 6,261 2,936 2,178 1,147 777 612 165 1,983 667 1,316 8,597 6,494 2,997 2,302 1,195 787 619 168 62.8 46.4 75.0 65.1 78.3 83.7 79.9 64.9 26.1 45.4 9.9 64.3 47.7 77.3 66.1 79.3 84.8 81.1 65.6 26.0 45.6 9.9 66.1 49.3 79.5 67.0 80.3 85.8 82.3 66.4 26.0 45.8 9.9 67.9 51.1 81.6 67.8 81.3 86.8 83.4 67.1 26.0 46.0 9.9 69.8 52.8 83.5 68.6 82.1 87.8 84.3 67.8 25.8 46.2 9.8 B la c k a n d o th e r 139 G-1. Civilian Saber fo rce and Saber fore® participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—-Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 High growth path—Continued 16 20 25 55 Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 129,726 131,092 132,391 to 2 4 .................................................. 23,768 23,589 23,509 and over............................................. 121,146 122,596 123,779 to 5 4 .................................................. 90,643 92,181 93,520 and over ............................................. 15,315 15,322 15,362 133,438 23,331 124,610 94,674 15,433 134,753 23,375 125,674 95,884 15,494 71.5 80.4 71.8 88.3 31.2 71.9 80.9 72.1 88.7 31.1 72.1 81.4 72.3 89.0 31.0 72.2 81.3 72.4 89.2 30.9 72.4 81.9 72.6 89.3 30.9 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ver............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and over ............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 68,736 11,724 4,335 1,907 2,428 7,389 64,401 47,676 18,777 8,912 9,865 17,468 9,105 8,363 11,431 6,378 5,053 9,336 7,050 4,094 2,956 2,286 1,302 635 349 69,238 11,609 4,281 1,939 2,342 7,328 64,957 48,295 18,501 8,644 9,857 17,658 9,320 8,338 12,136 6,896 5,240 9,334 7,034 4,110 2,924 2,300 1,292 654 354 69,739 11,548 4,331 1,968 2,363 7,217 65,408 48,838 18,184 8,368 9,816 17,981 9,498 8,483 12,673 7,122 5,551 9,353 7,040 4,155 2,885 2,313 1,289 665 359 70,270 11,495 4,432 2,040 2,392 7,063 65,838 49,384 17,894 8,139 9,755 18,293 9,623 8,670 13,197 7,420 5,777 9,391 7,071 4,223 2,848 2,320 1,281 673 366 70,835 11,463 4,553 2,137 2,416 6,910 66,282 49,950 17,645 8,031 9,614 18,604 9,708 8,896 13,701 7,733 5,968 9,422 7,092 4,288 2,804 2,330 1,279 677 374 80.1 81.0 69.1 59.9 78.5 90.1 81.0 95.5 96.9 96.1 97.5 96.4 97.2 95.6 92.2 93.8 90.2 43.5 72.2 82.4 61.7 19.6 29.6 19.4 8.7 80.2 81.4 69.4 60.6 79.0 90.4 81.0 95.6 97.0 96.2 97.7 96.5 97.3 95.7 92.2 93.8 90.2 43.3 72.4 82.5 61.7 19.5 29.6 19.4 8.7 80.3 81.7 70.1 61.3 79.6 90.7 81.1 95.6 97.1 96.3 97.8 96.6 97.4 95.7 92.3 93.9 30.3 43.2 72.5 82.6 61.6 19.4 29.6 19.4 8.7 80.4 81.8 70.6 62.0 80.1 90.9 81.1 95.7 97.3 96.5 97.9 96.6 97.4 95.8 92.3 93.9 90.3 43.2 72.7 82.6 61.6 19.3 29.6 19.4 8.7 80.5 82.0 71.1 62.7 80.6 91.2 81.2 95.7 97.4 96.6 98.0 96.7 97.5 95.8 92.4 94.0 90.4 43.1 72.8 82.7 61.6 19.2 29.6 19.4 8.7 Women, 16 and over .............................. 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ve r............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ve r............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and o v e r.................................... 60,990 12,044 4,245 1,794 2,451 7,799 56,745 42,967 17,922 8,824 9,098 16,207 8,557 7,650 8,838 5,105 3,733 5,979 4,650 2,673 1,977 1,329 814 333 182 61,854 11,980 4,215 1,833 2,382 7,765 57,639 43,886 17,860 8,667 9,193 16,588 8,875 7,713 9,438 5,551 3,887 5,988 4,653 2,692 1,961 1,335 808 342 185 62,652 11,961 4,281 1,868 2,413 7,680 58,371 44,682 17,721 8,481 9,240 17,060 9,144 7,916 9,901 5,771 4,130 6,009 4,670 2,726 1,944 1,339 803 348 188 63,168 11,836 4,396 1,944 2,452 7,440 58,772 45,290 17,498 8,293 9,205 17,422 9,307 8,115 10,370 6,053 4,317 6,042 4,703 2,777 1,926 1,339 795 352 192 63,918 11,912 4,526 2,042 2,484 7,386 59,392 45,934 17,322 8,211 9,111 17,781 9,431 8,350 10,831 6,352 4,479 6,072 4,731 2,827 1,904 1,341 791 353 197 63.9 79.8 67.1 58.2 75.7 88.9 63.6 81.5 88.1 90.5 85.9 84.4 86.0 82.8 67.0 70.9 62.2 21.6 43.6 50.2 37.1 7.8 14.9 7.5 2.6 64.4 80.5 67.9 59.2 76.6 89.5 64.1 82.2 89.1 91.6 87.0 85.5 87.2 83.7 67.6 71.6 62.6 21.5 43.8 50.3 37.3 7.8 14.9 7.5 2.6 64.8 81.1 68.9 60.2 77.6 90.0 64.5 82.8 90.0 92.5 87.9 86.5 88.2 84.5 68.0 72.2 62.9 21.5 44.0 50.4 37.4 7.7 14.9 7.5 2.6 64.9 80.9 69.7 61.1 78.5 89.3 64.6 83.0 90.4 93.0 88.2 86.9 88.7 84.9 68.5 72.8 63.3 21.5 44.3 50.5 37.6 7.7 14.9 7.5 2.6 65.2 81.8 70.5 62.0 79.4 90.7 64.9 83.3 90.8 93.4 88.6 87.2 89.1 85.2 69.0 73.3 63.6 21.5 44.5 50.5 37.8 7.6 14.9 7.5 2.6 111,023 111,909 112,745 113,348 114,208 71.3 71.5 71.7 71.8 71.9 60,472 60,817 80.2 80.2 80.2 80.3 80.3 W h ite Total, 16 and o v e r............................... Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 59,582 59,869 60,157 140 C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1994 1993 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 High growth path—Continued 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 34 ................................................... 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 9,814 3,620 6,194 55,962 41,446 16,043 15,331 10,072 8,322 6,272 2,050 9,669 3,560 6,109 56,309 41,896 15,756 15,430 10,710 8,304 6,244 2,060 9,572 3,594 5,978 56,563 42,277 15,432 15,666 11,179 8,308 6,239 2,069 9,488 3,672 5,816 56,800 42,656 15,134 15,896 11,626 8,328 6,256 2,072 9,421 3,766 5,655 57,051 43,051 14,871 16,129 12,051 8,345 6,269 2,076 82.2 71.2 90.4 80.8 95.7 97.0 96.6 92.4 43.6 72.7 19.6 82.4 71.4 90.6 80.8 95.7 97.1 96.6 92.5 43.4 72.8 19.5 82.6 71.8 90.8 80.8 95.7 97.1 96.7 92.5 43.3 72.9 19.4 82.6 72.0 90.9 80.8 95.7 97.2 96.7 92.5 43.2 73.1 19.3 82.5 72.3 91.1 80.9 95.7 97.3 96.7 92.5 43.1 73.2 19.2 Women, 16 and over.................................. 51,441 52,040 52,588 52,876 53,391 63.2 63.6 64.0 64.0 64.3 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ver................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 10,011 3,572 6,439 47,869 36,249 14,882 13,769 7,598 5,181 4,024 1,157 9,900 3,532 6,368 48,508 36,964 14,800 14,039 8,125 5,176 4,016 1,160 9,835 3,581 6,254 49,007 37,569 14,648 14,408 8,513 5,184 4,023 1,161 9,675 3,671 6,004 49,205 37,999 14,419 14,682 8,898 5,202 4,044 1,158 9,710 3,772 5,938 49,619 38,462 14,232 14,959 9,271 5,219 4,063 1,156 81.6 70.3 89.7 62.7 81.2 88.0 84.3 66.7 21.1 43.2 7.6 82.2 70.9 90.1 63.1 81.9 89.1 85.4 67.3 21.0 43.4 7.5 82.5 71.6 90.4 63.5 82.5 90.1 86.4 67.7 21.0 43.6 7.5 81.9 72.2 89.3 63.5 82.7 90.4 86.8 68.1 20.9 43.9 7.4 82.8 72.7 90.8 63.7 83.0 90.8 87.2 68.6 20.9 44.1 7.3 Black and other Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 18,703 19,183 19,646 20,090 20,545 73.2 73.9 74.5 75.0 75.4 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 9,154 9,369 9,582 9,798 10,018 79.6 80.2 80.7 81.2 81.7 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,910 715 1,195 8,439 6,230 2,734 2,137 1,359 1,014 778 236 1,940 721 1,219 8,648 6,399 2,745 2,228 1,426 1,030 790 240 1,976 737 1,239 8,845 6,561 2,752 2,315 1,494 1,045 801 244 2,007 760 1,247 9,038 6,728 2,760 2,397 1,571 1,063 815 248 2,042 787 1,255 9,231 6,899 2,774 2,475 1,650 1,077 823 254 75.2 60.0 88.6 81.9 94.4 96.1 95.3 90.1 42.9 69.0 19.1 76.4 61.3 89.4 82.3 94.8 96.5 95.7 90.4 43.0 69.3 19.1 77.6 62.9 90.0 82.7 95.2 97.0 96.1 90.8 43.0 69.5 19.1 78.6 64.5 90.8 83.0 95.6 97.5 96.4 91.2 43.0 69.8 19.0 79.6 65.9 91.5 83.4 96.0 98.0 96.8 91.7 42.9 70.0 19.1 Women, 16 and over.................................. 9,549 9,814 10,064 10,292 10,527 68.0 68.7 69.4 69.8 70.3 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o v e r................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 2,033 673 1,360 8,876 6,718 3,040 2,438 1,240 798 626 172 2,080 683 1,397 9,131 6,922 3,060 2,549 1,313 812 637 175 2,126 700 1,426 9,364 7,113 3,073 2,652 1,388 825 647 178 2,161 725 1,436 9,567 7,291 3,079 2,740 1,472 840 659 181 2,202 754 1,448 9,773 7,472 3,090 2,822 1,560 853 668 185 71.7 54.3 85.3 69.3 82.9 88.6 85.3 68.5 25.7 46.3 9.8 73.5 55.8 86.9 70.0 83.6 89.3 86.1 69.3 25.7 46.5 9.7 75.1 57.6 88.3 70.5 84.2 89.9 86.8 70.1 25.6 46.6 9.7 76.4 59.3 89.4 70.8 84.5 90.4 87.2 70.9 25.6 46.8 9.7 77.6 61.0 90.5 71.1 84.9 90.8 87.5 71.6 25.5 47.0 9.6 141 0-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1996 . 1997 1998 1999 2000 High growth path—Continued 16 20 25 55 Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 136,157 137,436 138,863 to 2 4 .................................................. 23,350 23,724 24,367 and over ............................................. 126,675 127,477 128,411 to 5 4 .................................................. 97,060 97,771 98,064 16,432 and o ver............................................. 15,747 15,941 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and over ............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ve r............................................. 55 to 6 4 .............................................. 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 140,388 25,156 129,481 98,413 16,819 141,933 25,931 130,658 98,848 17,154 72.6 82.0 72.7 89.5 31.1 72.7 82.2 72.8 89.6 31.2 72.8 82.5 72.8 89.7 31.7 73.0 83.0 72.9 89.9 32.0 73.1 83.4 73.1 90.0 32.3 71,537 11,443 4,749 2,252 2,497 6,694 66,788 50,491 17,404 8,058 9,346 18,880 9,802 9,078 14,207 8,126 6,081 9,603 7,276 4,481 2,795 2,327 1,269 677 381 72,109 11,628 4,985 2,377 2,608 6,643 67,124 50,800 17,055 7,984 9,071 19,071 9,787 9,284 14,674 8,104 6,570 9,681 7,365 4,562 2,803 2,316 1,254 673 389 72,798 11,948 5,229 2,484 2,745 6,719 67,569 50,876 16,653 7,863 8,790 19,192 9,742 9,450 15,031 8,244 6,787 9,974 7,669 4,836 2,833 2,305 1,238 671 396 73,531 12,338 5,453 2,562 2,891 6,885 68,078 50,994 16,250 7,692 8,558 19,246 9,676 9,570 15,498 8,425 7,073 10,199 7,908 5,032 2,876 2,291 1,222 667 402 74,277 12,723 5,634 2,621 3,013 7,089 68,643 51,159 15,965 7,517 8,448 19,182 9,533 9,649 16,012 8,643 7,369 10,395 8,115 5,195 2,920 2,280 1,206 666 408 80.6 82.0 71.7 63.4 81.2 91.4 81.3 95.8 97.5 96.7 98.2. 96.8 97.6 95.9 92.4 94.0 90.4 43.4 73.1 82.7 61.6 19.1 29.6 19.4 8.7 80.6 82.1 72.2 64.0 81.7 91.6 81.3 95.8 97.6 96.8 98.3 96.8 97.7 95.9 92.4 94.1 90.5 43.5 73.2 82.8 61.6 19.0 29.6 19.4 8.7 80.7 82.4 72.8 64.7 82.2 91.8 81.3 95.8 97.7 96.9 98.4 96.9 97.8 96.0 92.5 94.1 90.5 44.0 73.5 82.8 61.6 18.9 29.5 19.4 8.7 80.7 82.8 73.4 65.2 82.6 92.1 81.4 95.8 97.8 97.0 98.5 97.0 97.9 96.0 92.5 94.2 90.6 44.5 73.7 82.9 61.6 18.8 29.5 19.4 8.7 80.8 83.2 74.0 65.8 83.0 92.3 81.4 95.8 97.9 97.2 98.6 97.0 98.0 96.1 92.5 94.2 90.6 44.8 73.8 82.9 61.6 18.7 29.6 19.4 8.7 Women, 16 and over .............................. 64,620 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,907 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,733 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 2,160 2,573 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,174 20 and o ver............................................. 59,887 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 46,569 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 17,151 8,257 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 8,894 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 18,113 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 9,557 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 8,556 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 11,305 6,723 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 4,582 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 6,144 55 and o ver............................................. 4,809 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,900 1,909 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,335 65 and over......................................... 781 65 to 6 9 ......................................... .................. 353 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 201 75 and o v e r.................................... 65,327 12,096 4,974 2,285 2,689 7,122 60,353 46,971 16,883 8,212 8,671 18,374 9,586 8,788 11,714 6,755 4,959 6,260 4,933 3,005 1,928 1,327 771 351 205 66,065 12,419 5,223 2,394 2,829 7,196 60,842 47,188 16,560 8,122 8,438 18,563 9,580 8,983 12,065 6,920 5,145 6,458 5,139 3,182 1,957 1,319 762 349 208 66,857 12,818 5,454 2,474 2,980 7,364 61,403 47,419 16,229 7,975 8,254 18,684 9,547 9,137 12,506 7,119 5,387 6,620 5,310 3,311 1,999 1,310 752 346 212 67,656 13,208 5,641 • 2,536 3,105 7,567 62,015 47,689 15,995 7,825 8,170 18,705 9,451 9,254 12,989 7,349 5,640 6,759 5,459 3,419 2,040 1,300 741 344 215 65.4 82.0 71.3 63.0 80.2 91.0 65.0 83.6 91.3 93.8 89.0 87.6 89.5 85.6 69.6 73.9 64.0 21.6 44.7 50.6 37.9 7.5 14.9 7.5 2.6 65.6 82.3 72.0 63.8 81.0 91.3 65.1 83.8 91.7 94.3 89.4 88.0 89.9 86.0 69.8 74.5 64.3 21.8 44.9 50.7 38.1 7.5 14.9 7.5 2.6 65.8 82.7 72.8 64.6 81.7 91.7 65.3 84.0 92.1 94.8 89.8 88.3 90.3 86.3 70.3 75.1 64.7 22.1 45.1 50.7 38.2 7.4 14.9 7.5 2.6 66.0 83.1 73.6 65.3 82.4 91.9 65.4 84.3 92.6 95.2 90.1 88.7 90.7 86.7 70.7 75.7 65.1 22.4 45.3 50.8 38.4 7.3 14.9 7.5 2.6 66.2 83.6 74.3 66.0 82.9 92.2 65.6 84.5 93.0 95.7 90.5 89.1 91.1 87.1 71.2 76.2 65.5 22.6 45.4 50.9 38.5 7.3 14.9 7.5 2.6 White Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 115,063 115,935 116,870 117,875 118,900 72.0 72.1 72.1 72.2 72.3 62,544 63,032 80.3 80.3 80.2 80.2 80.3 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 61,205 61,621 62,065 142 C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 High growth path—Continued 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 9,374 3,921 5,453 57,284 43,412 14,607 16,332 12,473 8,419 6,349 2,070 9,511 4,108 5,403 57,513 43,562 14,248 16,452 12,862 8,548 6,492 2,056 9,766 4,300 5,466 57,765 43,490 13,842 16,509 13,139 8,809 6,767 2,042 10,078 4,475 5,603 58,069 43,465 13,442 16,508 13,515 9,001 6,976 2,025 10,383 4,610 5,773 58,422 43,484 13,150 16,404 13,930 9,165 7,154 2,011 82.4 72.6 91.2 80.9 95.7 97.3 96.7 92.5 43.2 73.4 19.1 82.3 72.8 91.3 80.9 95.6 97.3 96.7 92.4 43.5 73.5 19.0 82.4 73.1 91.4 80.8 95.6 97.3 96.7 92.4 44.1 73.8 18.9 82.5 73.5 91.5 80.8 95.5 97.4 96.7 92.4 44.5 73.9 18.8 82.7 73.7 91.6 80.8 95.5 97.4 96.7 92.4 44.8 74.0 18.7 Women, 16 and over.................................. 53,858 54,314 54,805 55,331 55,868 64.5 64.6 64.7 64.9 65.1 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and o ve r............................................ 9,675 3,938 5,737 49,920 38,912 14,042 15,215 9,655 5,271 4,123 1,148 9,811 4,129 5,682 50,185 39,141 13,765 15,402 9,974 5,362 4,225 1,137 10,065 4,327 5,738 50,478 39,204 13,442 15(527 10,235 5,536 4,409 1,127 10,376 4,505 5,871 50,826 39,284 13,116 15,593 10,575 5,671 4,556 1,115 10,678 4,644 6,034 51,224 39,406 12,881 15,573 10,952 5,784 4,681 1,103 82.8 73.3 90.9 63.9 83.3 91.3 87.6 69.1 21.0 44.3 7.3 82.8 73.7 91.0 64.0 83.4 91.7 87.9 69.3 21.2 44.5 7.2 83.0 74.2 91.1 64.0 83.6 92.1 88.3 69.6 21.6 44.7 7.1 83.2 74.7 91.2 64.2 83.8 92.5 88.7 70.0 21.9 44.9 7.1 83.4 75.0 91.3 64.3 84.0 92.9 89.0 70.4 22.1 45.1 7.0 Total, 16 and o v e r............................... 21,094 21,501 21,993 22,513 23,033 75.9 76.3 76.8 77.3 77.7 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 10,332 10,488 10,733 10,987 11,245 82.2 82.7 83.2 83.7 84.2 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ver................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 2,069 828 1,241 9,504 7,079 2,797 2,548 1,734 1,184 927 257 2,117 877 1,240 9,611 7,238 2,807 2,619 1,812 1,133 873 260 2,182 929 1,253 9,804 7,386 2,811 2,683 1,892 1,165 902 263 2,260 978 1,282 10,009 7,529 2,808 2,738 1,983 1,198 932 266 2,340 1,024 1,316 10,221 7,675 2,815 2,778 2,082 1,230 961 269 80.5 67.6 92.3 83.8 96.4 98.4 97.2 92.1 44.6 71.4 19.0 81.5 69.4 93.0 84.2 96.7 98.9 97.6 92.5 43.5 70.9 18.9 82.7 71.4 93.6 84.5 97.1 99.4 98.0 92.9 43.8 71.3 18.8 83.9 73.2 94.4 84.9 97.5 99.9 98.4 93.3 44.1 71.8 18.8 85.3 75.2 95.2 85.2 97.9 100.4 98.8 93.7 44.4 72.1 18.7 Women, 16 and over.................................. 10,762 11,013 11,260 11,526 11,788 70.7 71.1 71.5 72.0 72.4 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ....................................... .......... 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 2,232 795 1,437 9,967 7,657 3,109 2,898 1,650 873 686 187 2,285 845 1,440 10,168 7,830 3,118 2,972 1,740 898 708 190 2,354 896 1,458 10,364 7,984 3,118 3,036 1,830 922 730 192 2,442 949 1,493 10,577 8,135 3,113 3,091 1,931 949 754 195 2,530 997 1,533 10,791 8,283 3,114 3,132 2,037 975 778 197 78.8 62.8 91.6 71.4 85.2 91.3 87.8 72.4 25.6 47.2 9.5 80.0 64.8 92.7 71.7 85.6 91.8 88.2 73.2 25.8 47.4 9.5 81.3 66.8 93.8 72.0 86.0 92.3 88.5 74.0 25.8 47.5 9.4 82.9 69.1 94.9 72.3 86.4 92.8 88.8 74.8 26.0 47.8 9.4 84.5 71.3 96.1 72.5 86.8 93.3 89.2 75.6 26.1 47.8 9.3 Black and other 143 0=1. Civilian labor fore® and labor fore© participation rates by ag®, sen, and rac®, 1981 to 2000 (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985 Low growth, path Total, 16 and o v e r............................. to 2 4 .................................................. and over ............................................. to 5 4 .................................................. and o ve r............................................. 107,722 24,912 98,570 68,219 14,591 109,149 24,645 100,247 70,019 14,485 110,456 24,285 101,854 71,838 14,333 111,706 23,922 103,283 73,604 14,180 64.2 70.4 64.7 78.9 31.8 64.4 70.9 64.8 79.2 31.2 64.5 71.4 64.9 79.6 30.5 64.6 71.7 65.0 80.0 29.9 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 17 ......................................... 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ve r............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 .................................. ........ 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ve r............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 61,275 13,161 4,782 1,969 2,813 8,379 56,493 39,302 17,008 8,825 8,183 12,543 6,961 5,582 9,751 4,905 4,846 8,812 7,008 4,278 2,730 1,804 1,034 518 252 61,731 12,952 4,630 1,897 2,733 8,322 57,101 40,074 17,278 8,979 8,299 13,087 7,178 5,909 9,709 4,945 4,764 8,705 6,939 4,226 2,713 1,766 1,009 510 247 62,119 12,702 4,453 1,859 2,594 8,249 57,666 40,851 17,539 9,085 8,454 13,617 7,473 6,144 9,695 5,012 4,683 8,566 6,836 4,159 2,677 1,730 989 500 241 62,458 12,445 4,344 1,858 2,486 8,101 58,114 41,584 17,796 9,149 8,647 14,116 7,777 6,339 9,672 5,078 4,594 8,429 6,725 4,108 2,617 1,704 980 488 236 77.1 75.8 62.5 52.2 72.6 86.2 78.6 93.6 94.5 94.2 94.8 95.0 95.3 94.6 90.6 92.7 88.5 43.7 69.3 79.8 57.4 18.0 26.9 17.9 7.6 76.9 76.0 62.8 52.4 72.8 86.1 78.3 93.4 94.2 94.1 94.4 94.8 95.1 94.4 90.3 92.4 88.2 42.7 68.1 79.0 56.0 17.3 26.0 17.4 7.3 76.6 76.1 62.8 52.7 72.8 85.9 77.9 93.2 94.0 93.9 94.0 94.6 94.9 94.3 90.0 92.2 87.8 41.6 66.9 78.3 54.6 16.7 25.1 16.8 7.0 76.3 76.1 62.8 52.9 73.0 S5.8 77.5 93.0 93.7 93.8 93.7 94.4 94.7 94.2 89.8 92.0 87.4 40.5 65.8 77.5 53.2 16.1 24.3 16.3 6.6 Women, 16 and o v e r.............................. 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ve r............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 .............................................. 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 .............................................. 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... ■ 50 to 5 4 .............................. ............ 55 and o ver............ ;............................... 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 .............................. ..... ...... 75 and over .................................... 46,447 11,751 4,370 1,762 2,608 7,381 42,077 28,917 12,685 6,817 5,868 9,437 5,211 4,226 6,795 3,483 3,312 5,779 4,653 2,861 1,792 1,126 716 283 127 47,418 11,693 4,272 1,713 2,559 7,421 43,146 29,945 13,125 7,064 6,061 9,998 5,466 4,532 6,822 3,549 3,273 5,780 4,660 2,847 1,813 1,120 715 282 123 48,337 11,583 4,149 1,695 2,454 7,434 44,188 30,987 13,556 7,276 6,280 10,563 5,785 4,778 6,868 3,637 3,231 5,767 4,641 2,822 1,819 1,126 720 281 125 49,248 11,477 4,079 1,708 2,371 7,398 45,169 32,020 13,988 7,459 6,529 11,121 6,124 4,997 6,911 3,726 3,185 5,751 4,615 2,807 1,808 1,136 731 278 127 52.6 65.1 56.8 47.9 64.9 71.4 52.2 64.9 67.1 69.3 64.7 66.7 66.6 66.8 59.3 61.8 56.8 22.5 41.3 48.9 33.2 7.8 14.8 7.1 2.2 53.1 66.0 57.5 48.6 65.5 72.2 52.7 65.9 68.2 70.5 65.7 67.7 67.7 67.7 59.6 62.3 56.9 22.2 41.2 49.0 32.9 7.6 14.7 7.0 2.1 53.7 66.8 58.0 49.3 66.0 73.0 53.3 66.8 69.2 71.6 66.7 68.7 68.8 68.6 59.9 62.8 56.9 21.9 41.0 49.0 32.7 7.5 14.6 6.9 2.1 54.1 67.5 58.4 49.9 66.6 73.8 53.8 67.7 70.3 72.8 67.6 69.8 70.0 69.6 60.2 63.3 57.0 21.6 40.9 49.1 32.4 7.4 14.5 6.8 2.1 Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 94,438 95,544 96,541 97,496 64.5 64.7 64.8 65.0 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 54,435 54,773 55,049 55,287 77.9 77.7 77.5 77.2 16 20 25 55 W h ite 144 C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1932 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985 Low growth path—Continued 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 19 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ver................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ver............................................ 11,579 4,262 7,317 50,173 34,855 14,957 11,205 8,693 8,001 6,366 1,635 11,384 4,127 7,257 50,646 35,495 15,157 11,692 8,646 7,894 6,294 1,600 11,156 3,970 7,186 51,079 36,135 15,353 12,156 8,626 7,758 6,191 1,567 10,923 3,879 7,044 51,408 36,742 15,550 12,590 8,602 7,622 6,080 1,542 78.4 66.4 87.6 79.1 94.4 95.2 95.6 91.5 44.1 69.9 18.1 78.8 66.9 87.6 78.7 94.2 95.0 95.5 91.2 43.0 68.7 17.4 79.0 67.2 87.6 78.4 94.0 94.8 95.3 91.0 41.9 67.5 16.8 79.2 67.4 87.6 78.0 93.8 94.5 95.1 90.8 40.8 66.4 16.2 Women, 16 and over.................................. 40,003 40,771 41,492 42,209. 52.3 52.8 53.3 53.8 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 10,233 3,877 6,356 36,126 24,645 10,641 8,101 5,903 5,125 4,131 994 10,167 3,786 6,361 36,985 25,488 10,984 8,585 5,919 5,116 4,127 989 10,057 3,672 6,385 37,820 26,341 11,324 9,063 5,954 5,094 4,100 994 9,952 3,610 6,342 38,599 27,187 11,668 9,531 5,988 5,070 4,068 1,002 67.8 60.6 73.0 51.5 64.4 66.2 66.2 59.2 22.1 41.1 7.6 68.8 61.5 74.0 52.0 65.3 67.4 67.2 59.5 21.8 40.9 7.4 69.7 62.2 74.9 52.6 66.3 68.4 68.3 59.9 21.5 40.7 7.3 70.5 62.8 75.8 53.1 67.2 69.5 69.4 60.3 21.2 40.6 7.2 Black and other Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 13,284 13,605 13,915 14,210 62.1 62.3 62.4 62.4 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 6,840 6,958 7,070 7,171 70.9 70.7 70.4 69.9 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ve r............................................ 1,582 520 1,062 6,320 4,447 2,051 1,338 1,058 811 642 169 1,568 503 1,065 6,455 4,579 2,121 1,395 1,063 811 645 166 1,546 483 1,063 6,587 4,716 2,186 1,461 1,069 808 645 163 1,522 465 1,057 6,706 4,842 2,246 1,526 1,070 807 645 162 61.0 42.2 78.0 75.2 88.1 89.5 89.7 83.8 40.5 63.7 17.0 60.5 41.6 77.1 74.7 87.8 89.2 89.5 83.2 39.7 62.6 16.4 60.0 40.9 76.3 74.3 87.5 88.8 89.3 82.7 38.8 61.6 15.7 59.3 39.8 75.6 73.8 87.1 88.5 89.0 82.2 37.8 60.8 15.1 Women, 16 and over.................................. 6,444 6,647 6,845 7,039 54.9 55.4 55.9 56.3 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 5 4 ...................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 54 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,518 493 1,025 5,951 4,272 2,044 1,336 892 654 522 132 1,526 486 1,040 6,161 4,457 2,141 1,413 903 664 533 131 1,526 477 1,049 6,368 4,646 2,232 1,500 914 673 541 132 1,525 469 1,056 6,570 4,833 2,320 1,590 923 681 547 134 51.7 38.0 62.5 57.0 68.4 71.7 69.9 60.0 25.5 43.6 9.7 52.1 38.1 62.9 57.4 69.1 72.6 70.7 60.0 25.3 43.5 9.4 52.5 38.2 63.3 57.9 69.7 73.5 71.4 59.9 25.1 43.3 9.2 52.7 38.0 63.6 58.3 70.4 74.4 72.2 59.9 24.7 43.2 9.0 145 C-1. Civilian labor for©® and labor fore® parSSeipation rafos by ag®, sax, and rae®, 1®@2 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Low growth path—Continued 16 20 25 55 Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 113,004 114,310 115,435 to 2 4 .................................................. 23,513 23,199 22,781 and over............................................. 104,580 105,777 106,880 to 5 4 ................................................... 75,509 77,366 79,145 and o ver............................................. 13,982 13,745 13,509 116,484 22,324 108,028 80,903 13,257 117,394 21,899 109,205 82,485 13,010 64.7 71.8 65.1 80.3 29.2 64.8 71.9 65.1 80.7 28.5 64.9 72.2 65.2 80.9 27.9 65.1 72.6 65.3 81.2 27.3 65.2 73.0 65.4 81.5 26.6 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 .......................................... .... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ver............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 .............................. ............ 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ve r............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... ................................... 70 to 74 75 and o v e r.................................... 62,815 12,160 4,328 1,902 2,426 7,832 58,487 42,391 18,018 9,223 8,795 14,616 8,165 6,451 9,757 5,198 4,559 8,264 6,591 4,037 2,554 1,673 967 476 230 63,179 11,933 4,373 1,954 2,419 7,560 58,806 43,173 18,157 9,190 8,967 15,085 8,117 6,968 9,931 5,376 4,555 8,073 6,426 3,955 2,471 1,647 961 463 223 63,461 11,655 4,370 1,895 2,475 7,285 59,091 43,921 18,222 9,125 9,097 15,427 8,241 7,186 10,272 5,685 4,587 7,885 6,272 3,870 2,402 1,613 944 452 217 63,708 11,364 4,309 1,762 2,547 7,055 59,399 44,655 18,226 9,046 9,180 15,884 8,405 7,479 10,545 5,903 4,642 7,689 6*113 3,785 2,328 1,576 923 444 209 63,888 11,099 4,158 1,697 2,461 6,941 59,730 45,287 18,113 8,889 9,224 16,393 8,609 7,784 10,781 6,084 4,697 7,502 5,963 3,698 2,265 1,539 894 442 203 76.0 75.8 62.8 53.1 73.1 85.6 77.2 92.8 93.5 93.6 93.3 94.3 94.5 94.0 89.6 91.9 87.1 39.4 64.7 76.8 51.8 15.5 23.4 15.7 6.3 75.6 75.4 62.8 53.3 73.3 85.4 76.8 92.6 93.2 93.5 93.0 94.1 94.3 93.9 89.4 91.7 86.8 38.3 63.7 76.1 50.5 15.0 22.6 15.2 6.0 75.4 75.4 63.2 53.3 73.6 85.2 76.5 92.4 93.0 93.3 92.7 93.9 94.1 93.8 89.2 91.5 86.5 37.2 62.7 75.5 49.2 14.4 21.8 14.7 5.7 75.2 75.5 63.7 53.3 73.7 85.1 76.1 92.2 92.8 93.2 92.4 93.8 93.9 93.6 89.0 91.3 86.2 36.1 61.7 74.8 48.0 13.9 21.1 14.2 5.4 74.9 75.5 63.8 53.4 73.7 84.9 75.8 92.0 92.5 93.0 92.1 93.6 93.7 93.5 88.8 91.2 85.9 35.1 60.7 74.2 46.9 13.3 20.4 13.8 5.1 Women, 16 and o v e r.............................. 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 19 * ...................................... 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ver............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 .............................................. 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ver............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 50,189 11,353 4,096 1,764 2,332 7,257 46,093 33,118 14,403 7,646 6,757 11,684 6,534 5,150 7,031 3,846 3,185 5,718 4,572 2,775 1,797 1,146 740 276 130 51,131 11,266 4,160 1,823 2,337 7,106 46,971 34,193 14,755 7,749 7,006 12,224 6,609 5,615 7,214 4,009 3,205 5,672 4,511 2,740 1,771 1,161 753 275 133 51,974 11,126 4,185 1,783 2,402 6,941 47,789 35,224 15,041 7,817 7,224 12,672 6,812 5,860 7,511 4,267 3,244 5,624 4,4552,708 1,747 1,169 760 275 134 52,776 10,960 4,147 1,675 2,472 6,813 48,629 36,248 15,265 7,858 7,407 13,216 7,046 6,170 7,767 4,464 3,303 5,568 4,392 2,674 1,718 1,176 762 277 137 53,506 10,800 4,031 1,624 2,407 6,769 49,475 37,198 15,396 7,841 7,555 13,805 7,311 6,494 7,997 4,635 3,362 5,508 4,330 2,634 1,696 1,178 758 280 140 54.6 68.0 58.9 50.6 67.2 74.5 54.3 68.5 71.3 73.9 68.5 70.8 71.0 70.5 60.6 63.8 57.1 21.3 40.7 49.1 32.2 7.3 14.3 6.7 2.1 55.1 68.5 59.4 51.2 67.7 75.2 54.7 69.3 72.3 75.0 69.5 71.7 72.1 71.3 60.9 64.2 57.2 21.0 40.6 49.2 32.0 7.3 14.2 6.6 2.1 55.5 69.1 60.1 51.7 68.3 75.9 55.2 70.1 73.2 76.1 70.3 72.7 73.1 72.2 61.2 64.7 57.2 20.7 40.5 49.3 31.8 7.2 14.1 6.6 2.0 56.0 69.8 61.0 52.2 68.8 76.6 55.6 70.8 74.1 77.1 71.2 73.6 74.0 73.0 61.5 65.1 57.3 20.4 40.4 49.4 31.6 7.1 14.0 6.5 2.0 56.4 70.5 61.4 52.7 69.2 77.3 56.0 71.5 75.0 78.1 72.0 74.4 75.0 73.8 61.8 65.5 57.4 20.0 40.3 49.4 31.4 7.0 13.9 6.4 2.0 Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 98,484 99,478 100,301 101,038 101,661 65.1 65.2 65.3 65.5 65.6 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 55,539 55,797 56,115 56,197 76.9 76.6 76.4 76.2 76.0 W h ite 55,977 140 C -1. C ivilian ia b o r fo r c e an d ia b o r fo rc e p a rtic ip a tio n ra te s b y a g e , sex, a n d ra c e , 1982 to 2 0 0 0 -—C o n tin u e d (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Low growth path—Continued 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 10,668 3,874 6,794 51,665 37,410 15,717 13,022 8,671 7,461 5,947 1,514 10,466 3,918 6,548 51,879 38,054 15,802 13,428 8,824 7,277 5,786 1,491 10,214 3,913 6,301 52,064 38,671 15,824 13,705 9,142 7,092 5,632 1,460 9,942 3,850 6,092 52,265 39,271 15,792 14,089 9,390 6,902 5,475 1,427 9,699 3,709 5,990 52,488 39,775 15,656 14,518 9,601 6,723 5,331 1,392 79.1 67.7 87.5 77.7 93.7 94.3 95.0 90.7 39.7 65.3 15.6 79.0 68.0 87.5 77.3 93.5 94.1 94.8 90.5 38.5 64.3 15.1 79.2 68.7 87.5 77.0 93.3 93.9 94.7 90.3 37.4 63.2 14.5 79.5 69.6 87.5 76.7 93.1 93.7 94.6 90.2 36.3 62.2 14.0 79.8 69.9 87.5 76.4 93.0 93.5 94.4 90.0 35.3 61.3 13.5 Women, 16 and over.................................. 42,945 43,681 44,324 44,923 45,464 54.3 54.8 55.2 55.7 56.1 16 to 24 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ver................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 9,831 3,628 6,203 39,317 28,084 11,997 10,001 6,086 5,030 4,019 1,011 9,745 3,684 6,061 39,997 28,961 12,266 10,452 6,243 4,975 3,953 1,022 9,606 3,700 5,906 40,624 29,799 12,477 10,810 6,512 4,919 3,891 1,028 9,440 3,657 5,783 41,266 30,629 12,636 11,254 6,739 4,854 3,822 1,032 9,284 3,545 5,739 41,919 31,389 12,715 11,737 6,937 4,791 3,758 1,033 71.2 63.4 76.6 53.6 68.1 70.5 70.4 60.6 20.9 40.4 7.2 71.8 64.1 77.5 54.0 68.9 71.5 71.4 61.0 20.6 40.3 7.1 72.6 65.1 78.3 54.5 69.7 72.5 72.4 61.4 20.3 40.2 7.0 73.6 66.2 79.1 54.9 70.4 73.4 73.3 61.8 19.9 40.1 7.0 74.4 66.9 79.9 55.3 7T.2 74.3 74.2 62.1 19.6 40.0 6.9 Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 14,520 14,832 15,134 15,446 15,733 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.6 62.7 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 7,276 7,382 7,484 7,593 7,691 69.5 69.0 68.6 68.3 68.0 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ver................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,492 454 1,038 6,822 4,981 2,301 1,594 1,086 803 644 159 1,467 455 1,012 6,927 5,119 2,355 1,657 1,107 796 640 156 1,441 457 984 7,027 5,250 2,398 1,722 1,130 793 640 153 1,422 459 963 7,134 5,384 2,434 1,795 1,155 787 638 149 1,400 449 951 7,242 5,512 2,457 1,875 1,180 779 632 147 58.3 38.8 74.7 73.4 86.9 88.1 88.8 81.9 37.0 59.9 14.5 57.1 37.9 73.9 73.0 86.5 87.8 88.5 81.3 36.0 58.9 13.9 56.2 37.4 73.2 72.5 86.2 87.5 88.3 80.9 35.2 58.2 13.3 55.6 37.4 72.4 72.2 85.9 87.2 88.0 80.5 34.4 57.4 12.6 55.1 37.0 71.7 71.8 85.6 86.9 87.7 80.1 33.5 56.4 12.2 Women, 16 and over.................................. 7,244 7,450 7,650 7,853 8,042 56.7 57.1 57.5 57.9 58.3 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and o ve r............................................ 1,522 468 1,054 6,776 5,034 2,406 1,683 945 688 553 135 1,521 476 1,045 6,974 5,232 2,489 1,772 971 697 558 139 1,520 485 1,035 7,165 5,425 2,564 1,862 999 705 564 141 1,520 490 1,030 7,363 5,619 2,629 1,962 1,028 714 570 144 1,516 486 1,030 7,556 5,809 2,681 2,068 1,000 717 572 145 52.8 37.9 64.0 58.7 71.2 75.3 73.0 60.0 24.4 43.1 8.8 52.7 37.7 64.3 59.2 71.8 76.1 73.7 60.0 24.3 43.0 8.8 52.8 37.9 64.7 59.6 72.4 77.0 74.4 60.1 24.0 42.9 8.7 53.1 38.3 65.1 60.0 72.9 77.8 75.1 60.2 23.8 42.9 8.7 53.4 38.4 65.4 60.3 73.5 78.5 75.8 60.2 23.5 42.7 8.5 B la c k a n d o th e r 147 C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Low growth path—Continued Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 118,330 119,133 119,933 21,656 21,409 21,260 16-to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over............................................. 110,455 111,388 112,130 83,852 85,056 86,106 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r............................................. 12,822 12,668 12,567 120,781 21,118 112,826 87,163 12,500 121,684 21,001 113,553 88,242 12,441 65.3 73.2 65.5 81.7 26.1 65.3 73.4 65.5 81.8 25.7 65.3 73.6 65.5 82.0 25.3 65.4 73.6 65.5 82.1 25.1 65.4 73.6 65.6 82.2 24.8 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and over............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 .............................................. 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 .............................................. 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ver............................................. 55 to 6 4 .............................................. 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 64,090 10,930 3,981 1,708 2,273 6,949 60,109 45,815 17,893 8,613 9,280 16,933 8,768 8,165 10,989 6,189 4,800 7,345 5,847 3,655 2,192 1,498 865 438 195 64,250 10,761 3,903 1,723 2,180 6,858 60,347 46,279 17,565 8,332 9,233 17,075 8,950 8,125 11,639 6,679 4,960 7,210 5,757 3,639 2,118 1,453 830 436 187 64,428 10,645 3,925 1,737 2,188 6,720 60,503 46,673 17,202 8,045 9,157 17,348 9,097 8,251 12,123 6,885 5,238 7,110 5,695 3,651 2,044 1,415 802 432 181 64,647 10,538 3,994 1,788 2,206 6,544 60,653 47,078 16,869 7,804 9,065 17,614 9,194 8,420 12,595 7,159 5,436 7,031 5,659 3,683 1,976 1,372 772 425 175 64,918 10,450 4,078 1,859 2,219 6,372 60,840 47,507 16,583 7,682 8,901 17,880 9,254 8,626 13,044 7,446 5,598 6,961 5,626 3,717 1,909 1,335 749 415 171 74.7 75.5 63.4 53.6 73.5 84.8 75.6 91.8 92.3 92.9 91.8 93.5 93.6 93.4 88.6 91.0 85.7 34.2 59.9 73.6 45.7 12.8 19.7 13.4 4.9 74.4 75.4 63.3 53.8 73.5 84.6 75.3 91.6 92.1 92.8 91.5 93.3 93.4 93.2 88.5 90.9 85.4 33.5 59.2 73.1 44.7 12.3 19.0 13.0 4.6 74.2 75.3 63.5 54.1 73.7 84.4 75.0 91.4 91.9 92.6 91.2 93.2 93.3 93.1 88.3 90.8 85.2 32.9 58.6 72.6 43.7 11.9 18.4 12.6 4.4 74.0 75.0 63.6 54.4 73.9 84.2 74.8 91.2 91.7 92.5 91.0 93.1 93.1 93.0 88.1 90.6 85.0 32.3 58.2 72.1 42.8 11.4 17.8 12.2 4.2 73.7 74.7 63.7 54.6 74.1 84.1 74.5 91.0 91.5 92.4 90.8 93.0 93.0 92.9 87.9 90.5 84.8 31.8 57.8 71.7 41.9 11.0 17.3 11.9 4.0 Women, 16 and over .............................. 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and over............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 .............................................. 25 to 2 9 ................................. ......... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 .............................................. 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 54 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ve r............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 54,240 10,726 3,894 1,643 2,251 6,832 50,346 38,037 15,413 7,709 7,704 14,434 7,547 6,887 8,190 4,743 3,447 5,477 4,298 2,633 1,665 1,179 753 283 143 54,883 10,648 3,842 1,668 2,174 6,806 51,041 38,777 15,333 7,563 7,770 14,735 7,804 6,931 8,709 5,139 3,570 5,458 4,283 2,650 1,633 1,175 742 288 145 55,505 10,615 3,878 1,689 2,189 6,737 51,627 39,433 15,200 7,398 7,802 15,131 8,024 7,107 9,102 5,325 3,777 5,457 4,286 2,682 1,604 1,171 733 291 147 56,134 10,580 3,961 1,748 2,213 6,619 52,173 40,085 15,071 7,267 7,804 15,517 8,204 7,313 9,497 5,568 3,929 5,469 4,305 2,730 1,575 1,164 721 292 151 56,766 10,551 4,053 1,823 2,230 6,498 52,713 40,735 14,971 7,220 7,751 15,887 8,341 7,546 9,877 5,821 4,056 5,480 4,320 2,777 1,543 1,160 714 292 154 56.8 71.1 61.6 53.3 69.5 77.9 56.5 72.1 75.8 79.0 72.8 75.2 75.8 74.5 62.0 65.9 57.4 19.8 40.3 49.4 31.2 6.9 13.8 6.3 2.0 57.1 71.5 61.9 53.8 69.9 78.5 56.8 72.6 76.5 79.9 73.5 76.0 76.7 75.2 62.4 66.3 57.5 19.6 40.3 49.5 31.0 6.8 13.7 6.3 2.0 57.4 72.0 62.4 54.4 70.4 79.0 57.1 73.1 77.2 80.7 74.2 76.7 77.4 75.9 62.5 66.6 57.5 19.5 40.4 49.5 30.9 6.7 13.6 6.2 2.0 57.7 72.3 62.8 55.0 70.8 79.4 57.3 73.5 77.9 81.5 74.8 77.4 78.1 76.5 62.7 66.9 57.6 19.4 40.5 49.6 30.7 6.7 13.5 6.2 2.0 57.9 72.5 63.1 55.4 71.2 79.8 57.6 73.9 78.5 82.1 75.4 77.9 78.8 77.0 62.9 67.2 57.6 19.4 40.6 49.6 30.6 6.6 13.5 6.2 2.0 102,303 102,829 103,369 103,957 104,604 65.7 65.7 65.8 65.8 65.9 56,577 56,752 75.7 75.5 75.3 75.1 74.9 White Total, 16 and o v e r............................... Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 56,297 56,363 56,449 148 C-1. Civilian iabor fore© and labor fo rce participation rates by age, seu, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Low growth path—Continued 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 5 4 ................ :.................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 9,541 3,550 5,991 52,747 40,182 15,427 14,969 9,786 6,574 5,219 1,355 9,383 3,487 5,896 52,876 40,536 15,107 15,041 10,388 6,444 5,130 1,314 9,274 3,516 5,758 52,933 40,828 14,757 15,248 10,823 6,347 5,069 1,278 9,180 3,589 5,591 52,988 41,126 14,435 15,452 11,239 6,271 5,032 1,239 9,103 3,676 5,427 53,076 41,447 14,155 15,661 11,631 6,202 4,999 1,203 79.9 69.8 87.5 76.2 92.8 93.3 94.3 89.8 34.4 60.5 13.0 80.0 69.9 87.5 75.9 92.6 93.1 94.2 89.7 33.7 59.8 12.4 80.0 70.2 87.4 75.6 92.4 92.9 94.1 89.5 33.0 59.2 12.0 79.9 70.4 87.4 75.4 92.2 92.7 94.0 89.4 32.5 58.8 11.6 79.7 70.6 87.4 75.2 92.1 92.6 93.9 89.2 32.1 58.4 11.2 Women, 16 and over.................................. 46,006 46,466 46,920 47,380 47,852 56.5 56.8 57.1 57.4 57.6 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 and over............................................ 9,204 3,419 5,785 42,587 32,048 12,694 12,252 7,102 4,754 3,723 1,031 9,119 3,374 5,745 43,092 32,621 12,594 12,458 7,569 4,726 3,701 1,025 9,080 3,413 5,667 43,507 33,123 12,447 12,766 7,910 4,717 3,697 1,020 9,043 3,493 5,550 43,887 33,619 12,307 13,066 8,246 4,718 3,708 1,010 9,013 3,583 5,430 44,269 34,118 12,193 13,360 8,565 4,721 3,717 1,004 75.1 67.3 80.6 55.8 71.8 75.1 75.0 62.3 19.4 40.0 6.8 75.7 67.7 81.3 56.1 72.3 75.8 75.8 62.7 19.2 40.0 6.7 76.2 68.3 81.9 56.4 72.8 76.5 76.6 62.9 19.1 40.1 6.6 76.6 68.7 82.5 56.6 73.2 77.2 77.2 63.1 19.0 40.2 6.5 76.9 69.1 83.0 56.9 73.6 77.8 77.9 63.3 18.9 40.3 6.4 Total, 16 and o v e r............................... 16,027 16,304 16,564 16,824 17,080 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.7 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 7,793 7,887 7,979 8,070 8,166 67.8 67.5 67.2 66.9 66.6 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 5 4 ................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,389 431 958 7,362 5,633 2,466 1,964 i-1,203 771 628 143 1,378 416 962 7,471 5,743 2,458 2,034 1,251 766 627 139 1,371 409 962 7,570 5,845 2,445 2,100 1,300 763 626 137 1,358 405 953 7,665 5,952 2,434 2,162 1,356 760 627 133 1,347 402 945 7,764 6,060 2,428 2,219 1,413 759 627 132 54.7 36.2 71.1 71.4 85.4 86.7 87.6 79.7 32.7 55.7 11.6 54.3 35.4 70.5 71.1 85.1 86.4 87.3 79.3 32.0 55.0 11.1 53.8 34.9 69.9 70.8 84.8 86.2 87.1 79.0 31.4 54.3 10.7 53.2 34.4 69.4 70.4 84.5 85.9 87.0 78.7 30.8 53.7 10.2 52.5 33.7 68.9 70.2 84.3 85.7 86.8 78.5 30.3 53.4 9.9 Women, 16 and over.................................. 8,234 8,417 8,585 8,754 8,914 58.6 59.0 59.2 59.4 59.5 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and over ................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 44 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ver................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,522 475 1,047 7,759 5,989 2,719 2,182 1,088 723 575 148 1,529 468 1,061 7,949 6,156 2,739 2,277 1,140 732 582 150 1,535 465 1,070 8,120 6,310 2,753 2,365 1,192 740 589 151 1,537 468 1,069 8,286 6,466 2,764 2,451 1,251 751 597 154 1,538 470 1,068 8,444 6,617 2,778 2,527 1,312 759 603 156 53.7 38.3 65.7 60.6 73.9 79.2 76.3 60.1 23.3 42.5 8.4 54.0 38.3 66.0 60.9 74.3 79.9 76.9 60.2 23.1 42.5 8.4 54.2 38.3 66.3 61.1 74.7 80.6 77.4 60.2 23.0 42.4 8.2 54.3 38.3 66.5 61.3 75.0 81.1 78.0 60.2 22.9 42.4 8.2 54.2 38.0 66.8 61.4 75.2 81.7 78.4 60.2 22.7 42.5 8.1 Black and other 149 sex, C M . Clviliars lab or fo rc e and lab or fo rc e participation ra te s by age, and race, 1982 to 2 000— C ontinued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Low growth path—Continued 16 20 25 55 Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 122,749 123,680 124,707 20,913 21,188 21,705 to 2 4 .................................................. and o ve r............................................. 114,301 114,851 115,484 to 5 4 ............. ..................................... 89,283 89,852 90,015 and over............................................. 12,553 12,640 12,987 125,797 22,352 116,216 90,193 13,252 126,875 22,980 117,018 90,414 13,481 65.4 73.5 65.6 82.3 24.8 65.4 73.4 65.6 82.3 24.8 65.4 73.5 65.5 82.4 25.0 65.4 73.7 65.5 82.4 25.2 65.4 73.9 65.4 82.3 25.4 Men, 16 and o v e r.................................... 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 17 ......................................... 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ver............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ........................................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 ........................................... 55 and o ver............................................. 55 to 6 4 ............................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 65,322 10,375 4,231 1,946 2,285 6,144 61,091 47,927 16,313 7,691 8,622 18,114 9,324 8,790 13,500 7,810 5,690 7,020 5,722 3,853 1,869 1,298 726 406 166 65,629 10,497 4,421 2,043 2,378 6,076 61,208 48,117 15,945 7,603 8,342 18,266 9,291 8,975 13,906 7,771 6,135 7,015 5,754 3,909 1,845 1,261 703 395 163 66,040 10,746 4,618 2,121 2,497 6,128 61,422 48,102 15,530 7,471 8,059 18,356 9,231 9,125 14,216 7,893 6,323 7,192 5,964 4,125 1,839 1,228 682 387 159 66,511 11,062 4,796 2,173 2,623 6,266 61,715 48,129 15,118 7,292 7,826 18,381 9,153 9,228 14,630 8,054 6,576 7,320 6,123 4,275 1,848 1,197 662 378 157 67,017 11,374 4,935 2,207 2,728 6,439 62,082 48,210 14,821 7,112 7,709 18,297 9,003 9,294 15,092 8,253 6,839 7,433 6,259 4,398 1,861 1,174 646 373 155 73.6 74.4 63.8 54.8 74.3 83.9 74.3 90.9 91.4 92.3 90.6 92.8 92.9 92.8 87.8 90.4 84.6 31.7 57.5 71.1 41.2 10.7 16.9 11.6 3.8 73.4 74.2 64.0 55.0 74.5 83.8 74.1 90.7 91.2 92.2 90.4 92.7 92.8 92.7 87.6 90.2 84.5 31.5 57.2 70.9 40.5 10.3 16.6 11.4 3.6 73.2 74.1 64.3 55.2 74.8 83.8 73.9 90.6 91.1 92.1 90.2 92.7 92.7 92.7 87.4 90.1 84.3 31.8 57.1 70.6 40.0 10.1 16.3 11.2 3.5 73.0 74.2 64.6 55.3 75.0 83.8 73.8 90.4 91.0 92.0 90.1 92.6 92.6 92.6 87.3 90.0 84.2 31.9 57.0 70.4 39.6 9.8 16.0 11.0 3.4 72.9 74.4 64.8 55.4 75.2 83.8 73.7 90.3 90.9 91.9 90.0 92.5 92.5 92.6 87.2 90.0 84.1 32.0 56.9 70.2 39.3 9.6 15.8 10.9 3.3 Women, 16 and over ............................... 16 tp 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 ............................................... 16 and 1 7 ........................................ 18 and 1 9 ........................................ 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 20 and o ver............................................. 25 to 5 4 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 ............................................... 25 to 2 9 ................... ....................... 30 to 3 4 ........................................... 35 to 4 4 ............................................... 35 to 3 9 ........................................... 40 to 4 4 ........................................... 45 to 5 4 ............................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................... 50 to 5 4 .................................. ........ 55 and o ve r..................................... ....... 55 to 6 4 ..................................... ......... 55 to 5 9 ........................................... 60 to 6 4 ........................................... 65 and over......................................... 65 to 6 9 ........................................... 70 to 7 4 ........................................... 75 and over .................................... 57,427 10,538 4,217 58,051 10,691 4,408 58,667 10,959 4,605 59,858 11,606 4,922 2,194 2,728 6,684 54,936 42,204 13,886 6,901 6,985 16,777 8,394 8,383 11,541 6,566 4,975 6,048 4,939 3,344 1,595 1,109 657 284 168 58.2 72.6 63.5 55.9 71.7 80.2 57.8 74.2 79.1 82.7 75.9 78.5 79.4 77.5 63.1 67.5 57.7 19.4 40.7 49.7 30.5 6.5 13.4 6.2 2.0 58.3 72.7 63.8 56.3 72.0 80.6 57.9 74.4 79.7 83.3 76.4 78.9 79.9 78.0 63.1 67.7 57.7 19.5 40.8 49.7 30.4 6.4 13.3 6.2 2.0 58.4 73.0 64.2 56.6 72.3 80.9 58.0 74.6 80.1 83.7 76.8 79.3 80.3 78.3 63.2 67.9 57.7 19.8 41.0 49.7 30.2 6.3 13.3 6.2 2.0 58.5 73.2 64.6 56.9 72.7 81.2 58.1 74.7 80.5 84.1 77.2 79.7 80.7 78.6 63.2 68.0 57.8 20.1 41.1 49.7 30.2 6.3 13.3 6.2 2.0 58.6 73.5 64.9 57.1 72.9 81.5 58.1 74.8 80.7 84.4 77.4 79.9 80.9 78.9 63.2 68.1 57.8 20.2 41.1 49.8 30.1 6.2 13.2 6.2 2.0 1 ,9 1 7 2 ,0 1 7 2 ,1 0 0 2,300 6,321 53,210 41,356 14,868 7,280 7,588 16,225 8,476 7,749 10,263 6,135 4,128 5,533 4,382 2,848 1,534 1,151 702 292 157 2,391 6,283 53,643 41,735 14,664 7,253 7,411 16,487 8,518 7,969 10,584 6,136 4,448 5,625 4,485 2,948 1,537 1,140 690 290 160 2,505 6,354 54,062 41,913 14,397 7,177 7,220 16,671 8,519 8,152 10,845 6,255 4,590 5,795 4,667 3,118 1,549 1,128 679 287 162 59,286 11,290 4,785 2,156 2,629 6,505 54,501 42,064 14,109 7,045 7,064 16,778 8,489 8,289 11,177 6,398 4,779 5,932 4,813 3,241 1,572 1,119 668 285 166 White Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 105,334 106,064 106,826 107,643 108,450 65.9 65.9 65.9 66.0 66.0 57,898 58,275 74.7 74.6 74.4 74.3 74.2 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 56,986 57,250 57,547 150 C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1996 1997 1998 1999 1996 2000 1997 1998 1999 2000 Low growth path—Continued 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 9,048 3,824 5,224 53,162 41,749 13,881 15,842 12,026 6,189 5,023 1,166 9,173 4,004 5,169 53,246 41,844 13,521 15,945 12,378 6,233 5,105 1,128 9,413 4,190 5,223 53,357 41,740 13,119 15,990 12,631 6,394 5,300 1,094 9,708 4,358 5,350 53,540 41,686 12,725 15,981 12,980 6,504 5,441 1,063 9,998 4,489 5,509 53,786 41,677 12,435 15,873 13,369 6,600 5,560 1,040 79.5 70.8 87.4 75.0 92.0 92.5 93.8 89.2 31.8 58.0 10.8 79.4 71.0 87.4 74.9 91.8 92.4 93.7 88.9 31.7 57.8 10.4 79.4 71.3 87.4 74.7 91.7 92.3 93.7 88.8 32.0 57.8 10.1 79.5 71.5 87.4 74.5 91.6 92.2 93.6 88.7 32.2 57.6 9.9 79.6 71.8 87.4 74.4 91.5 92.1 93.6 88.6 32.3 57.5 9.7 Women, 16 and over.................................. 48,348 48,814 49,279 49,745 50,175 57.9 58.1 58.2 58.3 58.4 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 9,008 3,736 5,272 44,612 34,584 12,071 13,626 8,887 4,756 3,764 992 9,153 3,912 5,241 44,902 34,830 11,861 13,819 9,150 4,831 3,850 981 9,404 4,094 5,310 45,185 34,895 11,597 13,945 9,353 4,980 4,013 967 9,705 4,259 5,446 45,486 34,945 11,319 14,004 9,622 5,095 4,139 956 9,993 4,386 5,607 45,789 34,993 11,102 13,971 9,920 5,189 4,244 945 77.1 69.5 83.5 57.1 74.0 78.4 78.4 63.6 19.0 40.4 6.3 77.3 69.9 83.9 57.2 74.2 79.0 78.9 63.5 19.1 40.5 6.2 77.5 70.2 84.3 57.3 74.4 79.5 79.3 63.6 19.4 40.7 6.1 77.8 70.6 84.6 57.4 74.6 79.8 79.6 63.7 19.7 40.8 6.1 78.1 70.9 84.9 57.5 74.6 80.1 79.9 63.8 19.8 40.9 6.0 Total, 16 and o v e r............................... 17,415 17,616 17,881 18,154 18,425 62.6 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.2 Men, 16 and o v e r....................................... 8,336 8,379 8,493 8,613 8,742 66.3 66.1' 65.8 65.6 65.5 16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 ......................................... ;....... 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and o ve r................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,327 407 920 7,929 6,178 2,432 2,272 1,474 831 699 132 1,324 417 907 7,962 6,273 2,424 2,321 1,528 782 649 133 1,333 428 905 8,065 6,362 2,411 2,366 1,585 798 664 134 1,354 438 916 8,175 6,443 2,393 2,400 1,650 816 682 134 1,376 446 930 8,296 6,533 2,386 2,424 1,723 833 699 134 51.7 33.3 68.4 69.9 84.1 85.6 86.7 78.3 31.3 53.8 9.7 51.0 33.0 68.0 69.7 83.8 85.4 86.5 78.0 30.0 52.7 9.7 50.5 32.9 67.6 69.5 83.7 85.2 86.4 77.8 30.0 52.5 9.6 50.3 32.8 67.5 69.3 83.4 85.1 86.2 77.6 30.1 52.5 9.5 50.2 32.8 67.3 69.2 83.3 85.1 86.2 77.5 30.1 52.4 9.3 Women, 16 and over.................................. 9,079 9,237 9,388 9,541 9,683 59.6 59.6 59.6 59.6 59.5 16 to 24 ...................................................... 16 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 .................................................. 20 and o ve r................................................ 25 to 54 ..................................................... 25 to 3 4 .................................................. 35 to 4 4 .................................................. 45 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 and over ................................................ 55 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 and over............................................ 1,530 481 1,049 8,598 6,772 2,797 2,599 1,376 777 618 159 1,538 496 1,042 8,741 6,905 2,803 2,668 1,434 794 635 159 1,555 511 1,044 8,877 7,018 2,800 2,726 1,492 815 654 161 1,585 526 1,059 9,015 7,119 2,790 2,774 1,555 837 674 163 1,613 536 1,077 9,147 7,211 2,784 2,806 1,621 859 695 164 54.0 38.0 66.9 61.6 75.4 82.1 78.8 60.4 22.8 42.5 8.1 53.8 38.0 67.1 61.6 75.5 82.6 79.1 60.3 22.8 42.5 8.0 53.7 38.1 67.2 61.6 75.6 82.9 79.5 60.3 22.8 42.6 7.9 53.8 38.3 67.3 61.6 75.6 83.2 79.7 60.2 22.9 42.7 7.9 53.9 38.3 67.5 61.5 75.6 83.4 79.9 60.2 23.0 42.7 7.8 Black and other 151 ■fr U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1982 0 - 3 6 1 - 2 7 0 (4904) Employment jSfluIplLI)VoLl ft | \35§ 1 R F fllJ § H i A 0 1 111 1 jsjfi iQr r 13 L^ m □ Comprehensive labor force and establishment data. National, State, and area figures on employment, unemployment, hours, earnings, and labor turnover. arsd E a rn in g s monthly periodical P Employment Monthly and annual data by industry, from beginning date of each series through 1978. and Earnings, United State©, 1®@®~7® □ □ Bulletin 1312-11 hisiorical databook 953 pages. Supplement t@ Earnings, itemised Establishment ©at® Data for 1977-81 unadjusted. Data for 1974-81 seasonally adjusted. August 1981 388 pages. Supplement t@ Employment and Earning©, States andT^rea©, Data ter 1977=80 Data for 1977-79 (revised) and 1980. E m p lo y m e n t a n d P rim ary S ources o f Data fro m the Bureau o f Labor S ta tistics One-year subscription includes annual Supplement to Employment and Earnings, Revised Establishment Data supscription $31.00 single copy $3.75 (shown below). GPO Stock No. 029-001-02320-1 single copy $14.00 single copy $4.75 GPO Stock No. 029-001 -02628-5 single copy $8.00 284 pages. 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