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E©@[ni©ml]© Projections
" to 1990
U.S. D e p a rtm e n t o f L ab o r
B u re a u o f L ab o r S ta tis tic s
M a rc h 1982
B u lle tin 2121




i©®n©mie Projections
t© 1990
U.S. D e p a rtm e n t o f L a b o r
R a ym on d J. D o n ova n , S e c re ta ry
B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s
J a n e t L. N o rw o o d , C o m m is s io n e r
M a rc h 1982
B u lle tin 2121




For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price $6.00




(

This bulletin presents the latest Bureau o f Labor
Statistics projections o f the U.S. economy to 1990. It
consists o f five articles from the Monthly Labor Review
and supplementary tables containing additional data
frequently requested.
These projections are part o f the ongoing program of
the Bureau of Labor Statistics for study of alternative
patterns o f economic growth. For the historical input-




iii

output data upon which the projections are based, see
Time Series Data fo r Input-Output Industries, Bulletin
2018 (1979). A bulletin on the methodology is scheduled
for publication at a later date.
Material in this publication is in the public domain
and may, with appropriate credit, be reproduced
without permission.




Contents

Page

New economic proj ections through 1990—an overview.......................................................... .
Brief summary of the projections............................................................................................
Employment and output............................................................................................
Occupational d a ta ........................................
Impact of assumptions.............................................................................................................
Evaluation of past proj ections.................................................................................................

1
1
2
4
5
5

Table 1. Actual and projected civilian labor force based on three different growth
paths, selected years, 1965-90............................. ...................................

2

The U . S. economy through 1990—an u pdate...............................................................................
Major assumptions...................................................................................................................
Aggregate dem and...................................................................................................................
Employment and h o u rs...........................................................................................................

10
10
13
17

Tables:
1. Federal Government receipts and expenditures, 1980, and projected to 1985 and
1990, on a National Income Accounts basis................................................. ...........
2. Gross national product by major component, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1980, and
projected to 1985 and 1990.............................................................................. .
3. Labor force, employment, productivity, and gross national product, 1955, 1968,
1973,1980, and projected to 1985 and 1990 ..............................................................
The outlook for industry output and employment through 1990.................................................
Summary of employment tren d s........................................................................................
Characteristics of the 1990 economy......................................................................................
Energy assumptions.......................................................................................................
Final demand trends........................................................................................... <
...................
Industry o u tp u t.....................................................................................................................
Industry employment...............................................................................................
Previous projections for 1990..................................................................................................
Tables:
1. U.S. energy supply by source, actual and projected, selected years,
1965-90...........................................................................................................................
2. Gross product originating by major sector, actual and projected,
selected years, 1959-90....................................................
3. Low-trend proj ected output changes for selected industries, 1979-90......... .
4. Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90............. .
5. Employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years,
1959-90........................................................
6. Average annual percent change in employment by major sector, actual
and projected, selected years, 1959-90........................................................................
7. Low-trend projected employment changes for selected industries,
1979-90...........................................................................................................................
8. Comparison of previous and current employment projections for 1990 ................



v

12
14
18
20
20
21
21
22
24
26
32

22
25
26
27
30
31
32
32

C©nt@nte=-G@ntisiu®dl

Page

Occupational employment growth through 1990..........................................................................
Alternative scenarios................................................................................................................
Growth among white-collar groups.........................................................................................
Growth among blue-collar groups..........................................................................................
Service w orkers........................................................................................................................
Farm workers............................................................................................................................
Detailed occupations................................................................................................................
New data base...........................................................................................................................
Differences among surveys......................................................................................................

34
35
35
38
39
39
40
40
46

Chart 1. Job growth for major occupational categories under alternative
economic projections, 1978-90 ...........................................................................

36

Tables:
1. Employment by major occupational group, actual 1978 and alternative
projections for 1990.........................................................................................................
2. Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more,
actual 1978 and proj ected 1990...................................................................................
The 1995 labor force: a first lo o k ...................................................................................................
Women provide most grow th..................................................................................................
The changing labor force ,1979-85..........................................................................................
An experienced labor force, 1985-95 ................................................................
How the projections were revised...............................................................................................
Possible consequences..................................................................................................................

37
41
48
49
50
54
54
56

Tables:
1. Civilian labor force based on three different growth paths to 1995............................
49
2. Annual rate of growth of the civilian labor force by sex,age, and race,
1975-79 and projected to 1995 ...........................................................
3. Civilian noninstitutional population by age, sex, and race, 1975-79 and
projected to 1995 ..............................................................................................................
51
4. Civilian labor force participation rate by sex, age, and race, 1975-79
and projected to 1995.........................................................................................
5. Civilian labor force by sex, age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to 1995 .................
53
6. Labor force distribution by sex, age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to
1995....................................................................................................................................
55
7. Comparison of the current and previous projections for 1985 and 1990 ....................
55
Appendixes: Supplementary tables on—
A. Gross national product and components, selected historical and projected years,
1963 to 1990.................................................................................................................
B. Domestic output, employment, and hours, selected historical and projected
years, 1959 to 1990.............................................................................................
C. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race,
1982 to 2000............................................................................................




vi

52

59
117

1

Mew economic projections
through 1990—an overview
BLS has updated its 1978-79 projections for the
decade of the 1980's to reflect recent social, political
and economic developments; three scenarios, each based
on a unique set of assumptions about the future,
provide a range o f possible growth paths
R onald E. K utscher

underlying assumptions to determine which of the three
scenarios seems most appropriate for their purposes.

The economic and employment outlook described in the
following articles was constructed as a regular part of
the Bureau’s medium-term projections program. This
program includes a series of closely related projections
encompassing the labor force by age, sex, and race;1
gross national product projections, in total and by ma­
jor demand and income components; industry output
and employment; and occupational requirements, over­
all and by industry. Estimates are derived through the
use of an integrated econometric framework, and are
updated by BLS every 2 years.
The following articles are based on three alternative
projections to 1990. These scenarios cover a number of
alternative assumptions yielding a reasonably broad
span of employment and GNP levels for 1990. It is like­
ly, but of course not certain, that the actual course of
economic and employment development will fall within
such a wide band. Also, while alternative assumptions
are used for a few of the more important variables, it
was not possible to produce alternatives for all vari­
ables. This would quickly have multiplied the number
of projections confronting the user, and rapidly
expanded the workload entailed in their completion.
The three alternatives do not conveniently fall into
“high” “medium,” or “low” categories. Therefore, users
of the projections will find it necessary to review the

Brief summary of the projections

Labor force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics developed
three labor force growth scenarios for the next decade:
a high-growth projection, which assumes rapid growth
in the labor force participation of women and the con­
vergence of participation rates for black men and white
men under age 65; a middle-growth scenario with the
work force expansion attributable mostly to women;
and a low-growth path with only moderate increases in
the participation of women and with the continuing di­
vergence in male participation between races.2(See table
1.)

Some salient elements of the labor force projections:
® Because of past decline in birth rates, the labor force
will grow at decreasing rates throughout the next
decade.
0 Women’s labor force participation is expected to
continue to increase. Women should account for 2 of
every 3 additions to the labor force over the next de­
cade.
® While the overall birth rate for the United States has
been declining since about 1960, this has not been
true for blacks and other races. Therefore, represen­
tation of these groups in the labor force will increase
over the next decade. During 1985-90, their rates of
entry will be at least double that for whites, and

Ronald E. Kutscher is Assistant Commissioner for Economic Growth
and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




1

Table 1.

Actual and projected civilian labor force based on three different growth paths, selected years, 1965-10S0

G th path
row

Total ..................................................................................
Middle g ro w th .........................................................
High growth ............................................................
Low g ro w th ..............................................................
M e n ....................................................................................
Middle g ro w th .........................................................
High growth ............................................................
Low g ro w th ..............................................................
Women .............................................................................
Middle g ro w th .........................................................
High growth ............................................................
Low g ro w th ..............................................................

A
ctual
labor force
(inm
illions)
1385 1975 1979
74.5

92.6

Projected
labor force
(in m
illions)
1935 1990

102.9

2.2
115.0
118.3
117.7

26.2

55.6

43.4

65.9
68.2
63.9

51.4
53.4
49.2

56.5
59.9
53.5

59.5

43.4

Projected

1.9
2.3
1.7

1975

1979

61.2

63.7

1.7

4.1

39.3

77.9

51.0

1990
67.9
71.1
65.2

77.7
79.2
76.3

80.7

1985
66.5
68.4
64.6

.7
1.0
.4

2.9
3.5
2.1

1965

1.3
1.6
1.0

1.1
1.4
.8
3.5

could be even higher under one of the alternative
projections developed.
® The number of young people age 16 to 24 in the la­
bor force will fall by at least 1.5 million over the de­
cade, reflecting the past decline in birth rates.
® The number of people age 55 and over in the labor
force will not increase as much as the 25 to 54 cate­
gory, largely because of trends toward early retire­
ment.

77.2
79.9
74.9

56.5
58.7
54.1

59.6
63.2
56.4

77.9

51.0

rable equipment. In the low-path alternative, this
component increases by 4.7 percent annually over
the next decade, while in the two high-path scenar­
ios, growth exceeds 8 percent per year. Exports also
show a large variation among the alternatives.
® The demand category showing the most change from
recent trends is Federal defense purchases, which un­
der each of the three alternatives are assumed to
grow at annual rates appreciably greater than in re­
cent years.
® The trend toward a smaller government share of fi­
nal demand is expected to continue throughout the
1980’s in the two high-trend alternatives. In the lowtrend projections, the defense purchases component
of government demand is expected to grow sharply
in real terms during the early 1980’s, and then slow
slightly after 1985. Defense purchases are projected
to stabilize at about 5 percent of GNP over the latter
half of the decade.
® In the State and local sector, the largest change
from prior trends is expected in the education field.
As the baby-boom generation matures, the number
of school enrollees should decline over most of the
decade. Thus, growth of educational purchases is
projected to dampen through 1985, with absolute
declines thereafter.

Economic projections. The three alternative projections
for the economy as a whole used differing assumptions
for five key variables: (1) fiscal policy, (2) labor force
growth, (3) productivity growth, (4) the unemployment
rate, and (5) price levels. Each of the alternative as­
sumptions for these variables and the more significant
factors considered in arriving at the alternatives are dis­
cussed in detail in the subsequent articles. Proper evalu­
ation of the 1990 projections requires careful review of
these assumptions.
Among the highlights:
G Use of alternative assumptions yields a GNP for 1990
of between $1.9 and $2.2 trillion (in 1972 dollars), a
spread of over $270 billion. The 1980-90 real GNP
average growth is 2.5 percent per year at the low
end of the alternatives and 3.9 percent at the high
end.
° The low-path GNP growth projected for the 1980’s is
roughly consistent with the experience of the 1970’s.
The high alternative GNP growth rate is closer to the
path of the 1960’s.
® Among the assumptions used in developing these al­
ternatives, productivity (output per person-hour)
shows the widest variation. The lowest alternative
assumes 1980-90 productivity growth of 1.4 percent
per year. The highest alternative has assumed annual
growth of 2.6 percent.
® Within GNP, the component of demand most sensi­
tive to the alternative assumptions (particularly
those related to tax policy) is that for producers’ du­




1.9
2.4
1.4
1.4

Participation rate
A
ctual

58.9

2.7

122.4
128.4
117.4

63.6
64.8
62.5

48.3

A
nnual percent change
1965 1975 1979 1985
to
to
to
to
1975 1979 1985 1990

Employment and output
Employment. Between 1955 and 1980, the total number
of jobs3 in the economy increased from 68.7 million to
105.6 million, or by about 1.5 million a year; during
1973-80, annual job growth exceeded 2 million. Over
the next decade, major changes in employment are as­
sumed under each of the alternatives discussed in these
articles. Total employment is expected to increase by an
average of 1.6 percent— or 2.2 million jobs—each year
between 1980 and 1985 in the low-growth and hightrend II versions. In the high-trend I version, a higher
labor force projection, combined with an even more
rapid decline in the unemployment rate, yields annual
employment growth of 2.4 percent between 1980 and

2

Uses of projections
A wide range of persons and organizations use the bls
projections. Many are interested in only a particular ele­
ment, while others use all or most of the projection com­
ponents.

study conducted by the Education Testing Service of
Princeton, N.J., revealed the Handbook to be the most fre­
quently chosen resource of counselors and secondary
school students. The Handbook is used primarily in high
schools, but is also of value to elementary schools, col­
leges, vocational schools, public employment offices, place­
ment services for members of the Armed Forces returning
to civilian life, organizations which help the economically
disadvantaged, and vocational rehabilitation facilities.
National occupational employment data and projections
are used at all levels of government, and by others, to for­
mulate education plans. Included are such agencies as the
National Science Foundation, and the Administration on
Aging, which provide Federal funds for specialized educa­
tion and training to ensure themselves of an adequate sup­
ply of qualified workers. At times such agencies have
contracted with the Bureau to do special studies in these
areas. Conversely, the Office of Management and Budget
has relied on BLS occupational projections to evaluate the
training plans of other agencies. And educational institu­
tions and State agencies engaged in planning college-level
programs also use the data.
The national data are an input to State and area projec­
tions. Such subnational estimates are being used by gov­
ernment bodies to plan vocational education and CETA
training requirements. In fact, nearly all States currently
develop their own occupational projections based on a na­
tional industry-occupation matrix.
BLS data are an integral part of other types of occupa­
tional research conducted by private organizations, non­
profit organizations, universities, and government agencies.
The industry-occupation matrix provides the needed occu­
pational projections for industry scenarios developed by
others. Organizations which prepare vocational guidance
materials also rely upon bls research underlying the Occu­
pational Outlook Handbook.
Private employers use the Bureau’s occupational projec­
tions for a variety of planning functions, including the
construction of personnel policies which anticipate possible
labor shortages. And, producers of machinery operated by
workers in specific occupations may find the industry-oc­
cupation matrix a valuable tool for identifying potential
product markets.

Labor force estimates. The U.S. Department of Labor,
Congress, and the Congressional Budget Office use the la­
bor force projections for analyses in which the future de­
mographic composition of the work force is an important
consideration. The Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bu­
reau of the Census of the U.S. Department of Commerce
use the detailed labor force estimates for their own projec­
tions and analyses. Other executive branch agencies use
these data chiefly in eeo studies. In nearly all of the States,
bls labor force projections provide the framework for de­
veloping State labor force projections needed for planning
purposes.
Private users include market researchers, corporate plan­
ners, and others who build macro-models or estimate re­
cruitment needs. And international agencies are supplied
the data for information and research.
Projections fo r the overall economy and by industry. These
estimates and their underlying data bases are used by Fed­
eral agencies in preparing budget estimates or employment
analyses, or as a framework for more detailed models of
particular interest to their departments. The latter include
projections of the energy situation; environmental develop­
ments; housing, transportation, or defense requirements;
and capital availability. Also, the U.S. Department of
Housing and Urban Development regularly uses the pro­
jections in The Housing Report o f the President, as does the
Labor Department’s Employment and Training Adminis­
tration in The Employment and Training Report o f the
President.
Among international users of the overall economic pro­
jections are international agencies which monitor the future
prospects of the U.S. economy, those interested in research
methods, and those specializing in unique historical aspects
of the Nation’s economic development, such as capital
stock by industry, time series on output and employment
by industry, or input-output data.
State and local governments, area planning councils, cor­
porations, outside research organizations, and universities
also use the bls data for planning purposes, as input to
more specific models by locality or industry, or as a means
to evaluate projections developed by themselves or by oth­
ers.

individual elements of the projections— labor
force, gnp , industry output and employment, and occupa­
tional requirements— may also be integrated into a consis­
tent analytical framework which makes possible use of the
entire system. A set of analyses recently prepared for the
National Science Foundation relied on this approach to de­
termine the implications of increasing defense expenditures
and synthetic energy production for the supply of and de­
mand for scientists and engineers. (See Science and Engi­
neering Education fo r the 1980’ and Beyond (Washington,
s
National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of
Education, 1980)).
the

Occupational projections. This information is used in pre­
paring the Bureau’s Occupational Outlook Handbook, a tool
for career guidance; education planning; policy and pro­
gram analysis, evaluation, and development by government
and private organizations; and research conducted by other
organizations. The Survey of Career Information Systems
in Secondary Schools, a National Institute of Education




3

1985, or slightly fewer than 2.7 million jobs a year.
In all alternatives, the rate of employment growth
slows in the latter half of the decade, to 1.4, 1.9, and
1.5 percent, respectively, for the low, high-trend I, and
high-trend II models. This reflects the projected slow­
down in labor force growth after 1985.
Further important highlights:
°

G

°

®

°

turing sector likely to enjoy substantial output
growth are computers; optical equipment; construc­
tion, mining, and oilfield machinery; typewriters and
other office machines; electronic components; materi­
al handling equipment; photographic equipment; and
medical and dental instruments.
° Historically, the services sector has been increasing
its share of total private output, but during the
1980’s, its growth should approach that of the pri­
vate economy as a whole, keeping its share constant.
° Output of the mining sector is expected to halt its
historical decline as a share of the total private econ­
omy, as the expected rapid increase in coal produc­
tion outweighs minimal output growth in crude oil
production and absolute declines in copper mining
and nonferrous ores mining.

State and local government employment is expected
to grow less rapidly than total employment, largely
as a result of contraction in public education.
As in the past, the “other services” sector is
expected to experience the fastest employment
growth. By 1990, “other service” industries will ac­
count for over 22 percent of all jobs in the economy
in each of the three alternative scenarios. Leading
the advance among service industries will be health
care.
The largest number of new jobs projected for any
sector over the next decade will be in the trade sec­
tor, primarily because of its initial large size. Be­
tween 5 and 7.2 million new jobs are projected for
wholesale and retail establishments between 1979
and 1990.
Manufacturing jobs will grow by 0.8 percent a year
during 1979-90 in the low-trend version and 1.6 per­
cent in high-trend I, slower than the rates projected
for total jobs but faster than recent growth in the
sector. The turnaround in the rate of manufacturing
job formation will be more pronounced for durable
goods manufacturing than for non durables, reflect­
ing assumptions of strong demand for consumer du­
rables, defense hardware, and for producers’ durable
equipment, especially in the high-trend versions.
Five of the 10 industries with the greatest projected
rates of employment loss are in the nondurable man­
ufacturing sector, reflecting either falling demand or
rapid productivity growth.

Occupational date
The more important occupational trends:
® The shares of total employment accounted for by
white-collar jobs and blue-collar jobs do not change
substantially over the projected period under any of
the alternative projections. The white-collar share in­
creases from 49.8 percent in 1978 to between 50.6
and 50.9 percent by 1990, and the blue-collar share
changes from 31.8 percent in 1978 to between 32
and 31.5 percent in 1990.
° Service occupations continue to be the fastest grow­
ing major occupational category and should account
for almost 16 percent of all jobs in 1990.
° Job growth in blue-collar occupations is affected rel­
atively more by differences among the three alterna­
tive scenarios than growth in other occupational
categories. Blue-collar occupations are sensitive to
high-trend I assumptions because they are concen­
trated in manufacturing industries, and the demand
for manufactured goods is relatively greater in this
version of the economy. Demand for manufactured
goods is also greater in the high-trend II scenario,
but the need for additional blue-collar workers is
moderated by assumed higher productivity gains.
° Over the past two decades, the professional and
technical category has been one of the fastest grow­
ing occupational groups. Although employment is
projected to continue to increase faster than employ­
ment in all occupations in each of the alternative
scenarios, the differential rate of growth is narrowed.
® Employment of managers and administrators is pro­
jected to grow somewhat more slowly than overall
employment during 1978-90 in each scenario.
° Employment of clerical workers is projected to grow
faster than the average rate of employment growth
in each of the alternative versions. Only the number
of service workers is expected to grow faster.

Output. Projections of final demand by industry were
multiplied by an input-output table to yield projections
of the domestic output needed for each industry to meet
that final demand. This analysis indicates:
°

Agricultural output will continue to decline in rela­
tive importance throughout the next decade, reflect­
ing slow growth in food purchases. This slowdown
will affect almost all of the food industries and indi­
rectly, the agricultural industries.
° Although the nondurable goods manufacturing sec­
tor is expected to show only moderate overall
growth, several of its component industries should
experience faster-than-average output growth. These
include the chemical products, drags, apparel, and
printing and publishing industries.
° Among specific industries in the durable manufac­




4

°

Employment in the craft and kindred worker group
increases at about the average rate for all occupa­
tions in each of the scenarios. Most of this growth is
expected before 1985.

general principle of extrapolating long-term trends in
work activity was retained, the methodology was modi­
fied to reduce the amount of tapering5 applied to the
projected labor force rates. This had the effect of raising
the projected rates for women and lowering those for
men. The combined effect was an increase in the overall
projection for 1980 of 2 million workers— 2.6 million
more women and 600,000 fewer men than computed in
1973.

Impact of assumptions

A review of the sensitivity of the projections to
changes in the assumptions revealed that changes, espe­
cially in tax policy, showed the largest impact on the
producer durable demand component of GNP, the dura­
ble goods manufacturing industries, and a group of
blue-collar occupations principally found in the durable
manufacturing industries. The results here are very con­
sistent throughout the durable goods sector. However,
it would clearly not be warranted from these results to
assume that the same sector, industries, and occupa­
tions would be heavily impacted by changes in other
sets of assumptions. The expectation would be that
these changes would be felt by differing combinations of
industries and occupations.

Economic and industry trends. In the mid-1960’s, the
Bureau first published projections of gross national
product, output by industry, and industry employment
for the year 1970.6The basic model assumed a full em­
ployment economy with only 4 percent unemployment.
Other assumptions were that the Vietnam war would
have ended and that a housing boom would be under­
way. Total GNP was calculated from estimates of labor
force growth, hours of work, and labor productivity.
The projections of GNP and employment were within
4 percent of the actual levels for 1970. However, errors
in the distribution of final demand, output for 81 indus­
tries, and employment for 74 industries fell within a
broader range, with most of the larger discrepancies oc­
curring in the smaller sectors. The absolute difference
between actual and projected employment for each of
74 different industries averaged 76,800 jobs, or 10.3 per­
cent, but the Bureau correctly anticipated the direction
of change in 63 of the industries. And, when the errors
were weighted by employment in each industry, the av­
erage absolute difference dropped to 8.1 percent.
The largest source of error in the industry employ­
ment data proved to be estimates of employment-output
ratios or productivity by industry. Second in impor­
tance were inaccuracies in the projections of input-out­
put coefficients, while final demand estimates contri­
buted the least to industry employment errors.
For many of the variables used in the BLS
methodology, it is difficult to draw a distinction be­
tween those “projected” and those “assumed.” No wellspecified model (except the Houthakker-Taylor model
for the distribution of personal consumption expendi­
tures) was used for the 1970 projections, and variables
were in general projected from extrapolation of past
trends modified to account for expected changes.
Events of 1970 negated the basic assumption of a full
employment economy. The onset of recession brought
the average unemployment rate to 5.1 percent, com­
pared with less than 4 percent during the preceding 4
years. Moreover, military involvement in Vietnam had
not ended, and the housing boom did not materialize
until 1971-72. The 1970 downturn undoubtedly distort­
ed the projections in the aggregate as well as at the in­
dustry level.
One of the conclusions drawn from the 1970

Evaluatiom of past projections

A regular part of the BLS program is the evaluation
of projections when the target year has been reached.
These reviews provide the BLS projections staff with in­
sights into the causes of differences between projected
and actual values, such as unwarranted assumptions, er­
rors in historical data, or methodological problems.
They also give users an idea of the uncertainties at­
tached to any projections. A brief discussion of the re­
sults of these evaluations follows:
Labor force. All of the projections made by BLS in the
1952-70 period underestimated the actual labor force
(age 14 and over) in 1975.4 All projections also
underestimated the actual 1970 labor force, although
the 1956 and 1959 estimates were close. For the target
years of 1960 and 1965, however, BLS was reasonably
accurate, and the misses fell both below and above the
true levels.
As in previous years, the labor force projections
made in 1973 were based on the extrapolation of past
trends in work force participation. The 1973 projection
called for a civilian labor force (age 16 and over) of
99.8 million in 1980 and 110.6 million in 1990. By
1975, however, it was evident that underestimates could
again be expected. The participation rate of women was
projected to be 45.5 percent in 1990, but by 1975 the
rate had already hit 46.3 percent, and in 1976 it reached
47.3 percent. The rate of men also was predicted to
change very little. By 1980, it was expected to be 78.7
percent and in both 1985 and 1990, 79.1 percent. But
by 1976, the male civilian labor force participation rate
had already dropped to 77.5 percent.
b l s revised these projections in 1976. Although the




5

evaluation was that, because the BLS projections are for
the medium term and do not take account of cyclical
fluctuations, it might be more useful to specify ranges
for future output and employment. This is particularly
true for those industries most susceptible to fluctuations,
such as some durable goods industries or construction.
Another recommendation arising from this review
was to prepare more alternative scenarios, varying the
assumptions for each case. Particularly, more accurate
projections may result from broadening the range of
values that key exogenous variables can assume. The
benefits of the review of the 1970 economic and employ­
ment projections were such that the procedure became
a regular part of the projections program.
Projections for the 1975 economy, prepared in 1971,
were designed to reflect steady medium-term growth
and could not anticipate the sharp deviation from the

path brought on by the 1974— recession.7 Thus, the
75
high-productivity, full employment assumptions of the
1975 projections resulted in a large percentage error in
“supply gross national product” — the projected level of
economic resources. This error, in turn, biased the equa­
tions of the econometric model used for simulating lev­
els of demand and passed high estimates of final
demand through the projection process, ultimately
distorting projected levels of industry employment.
The 1975 evaluation of the projection methodology
also revealed weakness in the estimation of demand
components of G N P.8 Equations used to derive the in­
vestment and import levels were found to be particular­
ly poor, while those related to personal income,
personal consumption expeditures, and government pur­
chases performed well. The final demand industry dis­
tributions were quite inaccurate, due mainly to

Brief history of Bureau of Labor Statistics projections
In November 1979, BLS projection work, previously
spread among three Bureau organizations, was brought to­
gether under the umbrella of the Office of Economic
Growth and Employment Projections. While previous
interoffice efforts had been coordinated, the organizational
change made possible an even closer integration of the pro­
jections for various aspects of the economy. The projec­
tions in this issue are the first developed after this
organizational change.

appointed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt. In 1938,
the committee recommended the establishment of an occu­
pational outlook service within the Bureau of Labor Statis­
tics to conduct employment studies and provide career
guidance information for individuals and for vocational
counselors and planners. Accordingly, the Occupational
Outlook Service was organized under a specific authoriza­
tion of the Congress in 1941. Preliminary studies were be­
gun that year, but it was not until after World War II that
the staff was able to focus on the publication of reports for
use in career guidance. In mid-1946, a manual of occupa­
tional outlook information was prepared for use in the Vet­
erans Administration counseling and rehabilitation
program.
The first edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook
was published in 1949 in response to a formal resolution
by the National Vocational Guidance Association and the
requests of other groups and individuals that Congress au­
thorize the development of career guidance information for
sale. The public response was favorable to this first H and­
book, and in 1951, the Bureau decided to issue a revised
and enlarged edition, with the backing of the Veterans Ad­
ministration.
After the end of hostilities in Korea, there was height­
ened public recognition of the key role of vocational
guidance in channeling workers into essential occupations
and effectively using the Nation’s labor resources. As a re­
sult, in 1955, Congress provided continuing authorization
for regular publication of the Occupational Outlook H and­
book and related materials. In 1957, the third edition of
the Handbook was published and a companion piece, the
Occupational Outlook Quarterly, was introduced to report
on new occupations and describe changes in the employ­
ment situation in established career fields. The 1982-83
Handbook, currently in preparation, will be the 15th edi­
tion, and should be available in late spring of 1982. The
projections discussed in this issue of the Review will form
the basis for the new Handbook.

Labor force. Over the years, the Bureau has developed pro­
jections for each of the major subsets of the current pro­
jections. Labor force estimates were first produced in 1959.
Since that time, seven sets of these projections have been
published.
Industry output and employment projections. In 1963, the
Bureau began construction of a medium-term economic
projections model. Incorporating the input-output tables
then being developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
of the U.S. Department of Commerce, this model was
designed to produce industry output and employment pro­
jections 5 to 15 years into the future. Since that time, the
BLS Economic Growth Model has undergone several
changes in response to the need for more accurate and de­
tailed data. Various versions of this model have been used
to develop a series of seven sets of projections.
The current version of the Economic Growth Model is a
system of equations and identities linked at selected points
by various economic, econometric, mathematical, and pro­
gramming techniques to simulate the U.S. economy. Given
an explicit set of assumed values for certain target vari­
ables, this model generates industry output and employ­
ment projections. A key feature is the interlinking of inputoutput analysis with other econometric techniques.
Occupational outlook. This facet of the program originated
with a report of the Advisory Committee on Education




6

judgmental error. Projected industry outputs were dis­
torted more by errors in the estimates of final demand
than by inaccuracies in the input-output table employed
in the projection process. However, industry productivi­
ty factors also were wide of the mark, offsetting the de­
mand error in such a way that relative accuracy in the
industry employment projections resulted.
Projections of the labor force and employment for
1975 fell within 4 percent of the realized levels. GNP
was overestimated by 15.4 percent. Errors for detailed
industry final demand, output, and employment’ fell
within a broader range, but, for the most part, the larg­
er percentage errors occurred among the smaller sec­
tors.
Employment was overestimated for three-quarters of
the industries studied, reflecting the severity of the 1975
recession. The largest percent errors were recorded for
the durable manufacturing and mining industries, while
the largest numerical errors occurred within the con­
struction, trade, and service industries, the three largest
economic sectors. The absolute difference between actu­
al and projected employment for each of the 71 indus­
tries studied averaged 8 percent of total employment for
these industries.
Total employment for 1975 was overprojected by
about 3.5 percent, although discrepancies varied widely
by industry. The overprojection of GNP led to an over­
estimate of industry outputs; together with the
misprojection of labor productivity, this resulted in the
overprojection of total employment.
At the industry level, the average absolute percentage
error in employment for 71 industries was 14.8 percent;
when weighted by industry employment shares, the av­
erage dropped to 8 percent. This again indicates that
the larger percentage errors were in the smaller indus­
tries. Estimates for more than 40 percent of the indus­
tries, accounting for more than two-thirds of em­
ployment, were within 10 percent of the actual values.
The largest single concentration of error was in the con­
struction industry; personal and business services were a
close second. The third largest source of error was the
trade sector; although the discrepancy was small, it be­
came important because of the large size of the sector.
The 1975 evaluation differed from the review of the
1970 projections, chiefly because the macro model was
not used in the 1970 study. In addition, the 1970 study
found productivity factors to be the most important in
explaining errors in projected employment, while the
1975 study found macro controls to be the major
source.

projected these relationships to 1975.9 The primary
data sources for the project were the 1950 and 1960
censuses and, for industry em ploym ent, annual esti­
m ates from the BLS establishm ent surveys from 1947
onward.

A revision of the 1975 matrix based largely on addi­
tional industry data was completed in 1969. Although
the revision was not published, it is a resource for the
occupational outlook program, and provides more his­
torical data for evaluating projections. Due to a major
change in the occupational employment classification
system beginning with the 1970 census, only 76 of the
162 detailed occupations were comparable over the
1960-75 period.
The unforeseen economic downturn of the mid-1970’s
reduced the accuracy of the occupational projections;
although the errors were not as great as initially sup­
posed, the target year turned out to be the trough of
the recession, and the actual unemployment rate was
8.5 percent. Consequently, employment in cyclically
sensitive occupations, such as craft and operative occu­
pations, generally was overprojected. Employment in
these two groups had been growing in line with project­
ed trends through 1974, but turned down as economic
conditions worsened in 1975. Interestingly, underprojec­
tions did occur in 3 of the 9 major occupational groups
despite the recession, and these errors might have been
somewhat higher if economic conditions in 1975 had
been as favorable as originally assumed.
The difference between projected and actual employ­
ment for the major occupational groups ranged from a
6.7-percent underestimate for clerical workers to a
9.1-percent overestimate for operatives. The average of
the absolute percentage difference was 6.1 percent. The
projections for more detailed occupations were subject
to much larger error, averaging 20.8-percent off 1975
employment levels. Again, differences between projected
and actual employment tended to be smaller for the
larger worker groups.
Several projection methods that would have been
simpler than the matrix procedure were explored during
the 1975 review. Among these, the most successful was
linear extrapolation of employment trends for each oc­
cupation. These extrapolations averaged an absolute
26.2 percent off actual 1975 employment in the 76 de­
tailed occupations, compared with the 20.8-percent er­
ror in the matrix projections.
The direction of employment change between 1960
and 1975 was correctly anticipated for all of the nine
major occupational groups, although employment in
five was overprojected. However, the evaluation of 1975
employment projections for detailed occupations was
hampered by the previously mentioned change in the
Census Bureau occupational classification system for the
1970 census. Beginning in late 1971, the revised system

Occupational estimates. In 1967, the Division of Occupa­
tional Outlook completed an industry-occupation ma­
trix which described the relationship of employment in
162 occupations and 124 industries during 1960 and




7

was adopted for the Current Population Survey ( c p s ),
the primary source of occupational employment data
between decennial censuses. Largely as a result of this
classification change, projections for only 76 of the 162
occupations in the matrix were comparable with 1975
employment data estimated from the CPS. Differences
between projected and actual employment in the 76 de­
tailed occupations ranged from a 43-percent understate­
ment for personnel and labor relations workers to a 136percent overestimate for plasterers. The absolute per­
centage errors for all 76 occupations averaged 20.8
percent. Two-thirds of the occupations, however, had
errors lower than the average.
As indicated earlier, this evaluation found projection
accuracy to be related to the size of employment in an
occupation. When weighted by employment in each oc­
cupation, the average absolute error drops from 20.8
percent to 14 percent, indicating that projections for the
largest occupations generally were more accurate. Rela­
tively close estimates for the four occupational catego­
ries with more than 1 million workers each in 1975
contributed substantially to the final results. The fol­
lowing tabulation shows how projection accuracy im­
proved with the size of the worker group:
Number o f workers
in occupations

Number o f
occupations
76
19
14
17
14
12

p r e p a r a t i o n o f e c o n o m i c p r o j e c t i o n s is, to a
degree, both a science and an art. Thus, misunderstand­
ings may arise between the users, who feel the need for
exact numbers, and producers, who recognize their in­
ability to predict with such precision. Such con­
flicts are all the more likely because projections analysts
generally employ a framework which develops numeri­
cal answers to specific questions, and users are inevita­
bly tempted to attribute to those numbers an exactness
they should not be accorded. The Bureau attempts to
address this dilemma, in at least a small way, by mak­
ing clear all of the important assumptions underlying its
projections, by developing alternative versions which re­
flect at least some of the uncertainties about the future,
by evaluating past projections to assist users in appreci­
ating the unpredictable nature of certain future events,
and by updating the projections on a regular 2-year cy­
cle.
Even so, the Bureau is aware that many uses of the
projections (see box) require quantitative estimates. It is
incumbent on users to realize that differing assumptions
can change the results, that underlying data and meth­
ods can cause errors, and that estimates should be care­
fully reviewed to take into account subsequent
developments. which could not be anticipated at the
time the projections were prepared.
A final comment, from Edgar R. Fiedler, on projec­
tions, their uncertainties, and their uses: “give them a
number or give them a date, but never both.” 1
0
□

T he

Average absolute
percent error

Total ...................
Less than 50,000 ...........
50,000 to 99,999 ...........
100,000 to 299,999 ____
300,000 to 599,999 ____
600,000 and more . . . .

trends in the occupational structure of industries. Al­
though the projections were made in the late 1960’s, the
only comprehensive sources of historical data on ratios
were the 1950 and 1960 decennial censuses. A long-rec­
ognized need for current, detailed data on industry staf­
fing patterns prompted the initiation of the cooperative
Federal-State program, Occupational Employment Sta­
tistics, in 1970.
Continuing analysis of the accuracy of projections is
an important activity in improving their reliability.
Thus, evaluation of previous projections has become a
regular part of the BLS program. Complete employment
data soon will be available for comparison with the
1980 industry and occupational projections, and an
evaluation of the complete set of 1980 projections is
currently planned.
The Bureau’s policy of updating the medium-term
scenarios every 2 years also contributes to accuracy.
The three articles which follow reflect such an update of
the 1990 GNP, industry output and employment, and
occupational projections developed in 1978-79.

20.8
32.4
20.3
15.5
19.8
11.2

A major objective of the evaluation of the 1975
occupational projections was to isolate the effects of er­
rors in the matrix elements that determine occupational
employment in the target year (projected employment
by industry) on projected occupational staffing patterns
for each industry (industry-occupation ratios).
Although the occupational projections were off the
mark for many reasons, including the economic down­
turn, the 1975 review established that the ratio esti­
mates were a far greater source of error in the
occupational projections than the estimates of industry
employment levels. In fact, a simulated matrix based on
actual 1975 industry employment levels and the esti­
mated ratios produced occupational totals that were no
more accurate, on average, than the projections,
suggesting that the quality of the ratios was so poor as
to negate the effect of perfect industry employment pro­
jections.
The ratio estimates were based on scanty data for




8

FOOTNOTES
8 Paul T. Christy and Karen I. Horowitz, “An evaluation of BLS
projections of 1975 output and employment,” Monthly Labor Review,
August 1979, pp. 8-19.
q Evaluations of earlier occupational projections are described in
Sol Swerdloff, “How good were manpower projections for the
1960’s,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1969, pp. 17-22. The arti­
cle referenced here is Max L. Carey, “Evaluating the 1975 projections
of occupational employment,” Monthly Labor Review, June 1980, pp.
10- 21 .
The Bureau’s occupational projections for 1975 were first published
in Occupational Employment Patterns for 1960 and 1975, Bulletin 1599
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1968). The projections also were present­
ed in a corollary report, Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Volume IV,
Bulletin 1606 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1969). The projections eval­
uated in this article were obtained from the latter publication. There
are minor differences in estimates presented in the two publications.

' The labor force projections were published earlier. See Howard N
Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: a first look,” Monthly Labor Re­
view, December 1980, pp. 11-21.
2See Fullerton, “The 1995 labor force.”
3The employment total used in this and the subsequent articles
consists of wage and salary workers, self-employed, and unpaid family
workers.
4See Paul M. Ryscavage, “BLS labor force projections: a review of
methods and results,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1979, pp. 15-22.
5Tapering refers to the assumptions and formulations used to move
from the most recent rate of change in labor force participation for a
given age-sex group to a zero rate of change several decades in the fu­
ture.
6Valerie A. Personick and Robert A. Sylvester, “Evaluation of BLS
19V0 economic and employment projections,” Monthly Labor Review,
August 1976, pp. 13-16.
Projections o f the Post-Vietnam Economy, 1975, Bulletin 1733 (Bu­
reau of Labor Statistics, 1972).




1 Edgar R. Fiedler, “The Three R’s of Economic Forecasting— Ir­
0
rational, Irrelevant, and Irreverent,” Across the Board, June 1977, pp.
62-63.

Translating projections into action
In some respects the appraisal of forecasts puts a greater burden on
the policymaker than the original task of forecasting itself. The accu­
racy of current forecasts is, of course, yet to be determined. Evalua­
tion of the methodology of various forecasts may require technical
sophistication at least as great as, and perhaps greater than, that of
the specialist in forecasting. Yet the policymaker is rarely a specialist
in forecasting techniques, nor is he often an authority on the phenom­
ena being projected. Moreover, for the frequent case in which numer­
ous forecasts of the same trend are available, the selection of a “most
likely” forecast is in itself an act of forecasting, since the policymaker
chooses the forecast which reflects assumptions and methods that ap­
pear most reasonable to him. The policymaker thus tacitly chooses a
set of assumptions about the future and methodology for projecting
the essence of those assumptions.
------------W ILLIAM ASCHER

Forecasting: An appraisal fo r
Policy-Makers and Planners

(Baltimore, Md., The Johns Hopkins
University Press, 1978), pp. 1-2.

9

The US, economy
through 1990—an update
Revised BLS projections o f growth indicate a shift
from government spending to private investment;
the three alternative projections assume a broad range
o f values for productivity, inflation, and fiscal policy
N o r m a n C. S a u n d e r s

In what ways might the U.S. economy expand during
the 1980’s?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared three
trend projections of growth for the 1980-90 period,
updating the two prior scenarios published in 1978 and
adding a projection of major change in Federal fiscal
policies.1 The low-trend projection is characterized by
assumptions of continuing high inflation, low productiv­
ity growth, and moderate expansion in real production.
Alternatively, the high-trend version-! projection as­
sumes marked improvements in both inflation and pro­
ductivity, greater labor force growth, and commensurately higher real production levels. Finally, the new
high-trend, versioe-II alternative assumes labor force
growth consistent with the low-trend, but greater pro­
ductivity gains and less inflation than in the version-I
high-trend. None of the alternatives represents an at­
tempt to forecast possible cyclical fluctuations during
the 1980’s. The three projections are intended to pro­
vide a range within which economic growth will most
likely occur; however, they should not be interpreted as
being representative of all likelihoods. Hereafter, the
three scenarios will be referred to as the low-trend, the
high-I, and the high-II alternatives.
By 1990, real gross national product ( g n p ) is
expected to range between $1.9 and $2.2 trillion, with
civilian employment between 120 and 129 million jobs.
In all three versions, annual rates of growth in employ­
ment begin to slow in the 1980’s but are more than off­
set by assumed improvements in productivity. Follow­
ing are projected growth rates, for GNP, disposable
income, and employment during 1980-85 and 1985—
90:
Norman C. Saunders is an economist in the Office of Economic
Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




1980-85
Low
Gross national
product . . .
Real disposable
income . . .
Employment .

1985-90

High-I High-II Low

High-I High-II

2.2

3.8

3.7

2.8

4.0

4.1

1.9
1.5

3.8
2.4

3.7
1.7

2.5
1.4

4.3
1.9

4.6
1.5

In terms of the real rate of growth, the low-trend pro­
jections are comparable to the 1973-80 period when
real GNP increased at an average rate of 2.4 percent
and real disposable income grew by 2.5 percent each
year. Conversely, the two high-trend projections corre­
spond more with the 1955-68 period, when GNP grew
at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent, while real dis­
posable income was up annually by 3.8 percent.

Major assumptions
Underlying the projections are five major groups of
assumptions—fiscal, demographic, productivity, unem­
ployment, and prices.2 Other assumptions such as capi­
tal discard rates, short- and medium-term interest rates,
and motor fuel usage are not discussed here. However,
the impact of the latter is limited to relatively small seg­
ments of the projections. An exception is the energy
area, but because of limitations in the current BLS
model, neither energy prices nor the availability of
imported oil play a direct role in the aggregate projec­
tions. At the industry level, the consumption of energy
by type and source is generally consistent with the me­
dium-price projections of the Department of Energy,
which are discussed elsewhere in this issue.3
Fiscal. It is assumed that personal tax payments will be
affected in 1981 by a Federal income tax cut ranging
from $12 billion in the low-trend projection to $23 bil­

$56,100 in 1990, with a combined tax rate of 14.3 per­
cent. This leads to social insurance contributions ac­
counting for 10.6 percent of national income over the
first years of the decade. Thereafter, contributions
decline in share terms, accounting for 10.1 percent of
national income by 1990.
In the high-II model, the wage base reaches $54,900
in 1990, with a combined tax rate of 13.4 percent (that
is, no change in the rate is assumed over the entire de­
cade). In this scenario, Federal social insurance contri­
butions account for 9.4 percent of national income by
1990.
To summarize the tax assumptions, Federal receipts
are expected to account for somewhat more than 21.0
percent of GNP during the first years of the 1980’s in the
low-trend projection and decline moderately to about
20.0 percent by 1990. The high-I alternative is charac­
terized by revenues accounting for 19.5 percent of GNP
in 1985 and 18.1 percent by 1990. Finally, in the highII model, revenues drop to 18.5 and 17.9 percent of
GNP in 1985 and 1990, respectively.
The assumed goal for Federal expenditures in the
three alternatives is to lower expenditures as a propor­
tion of GNP throughout the decade. In the low-trend
version, Federal purchases of goods and services, ex­
cluding employee compensation, are assumed to grow at
a real rate of 5.5 percent a year between 1980 and 1985
and at 2.5 percent between 1985 and 1990. In both
high-trend versions, purchases less compensation in­
crease at a real rate of approximately 5.0 percent in the
first half of the decade, slowing to a 2.5-percent average
growth during the 1985-90 period. In all alternatives, it
has been assumed that real defense expenditures in­
crease by 4.0 to 5.0 percent each year during 1980-85
and by 2.0 to 3.0 percent during 1985-90.
The three alternatives assume that military forces
reach 2.129 million by 1985 and remain at that level for
the remainder of the decade. This level is approximately
27.000 more than in 1980. (The implication is that all
real increases in defense spending are aimed at provid­
ing more materiel, rather than more personnel.) Federal
civilian employment is assumed to increase by approxi­
mately .7 percent, or 13,000 jobs, each year between
1980 and 1990 in the low-and high-I alternatives. In the
high-II alternative, rather sharp cuts in Federal civilian
employment are assumed for the early 1980’s, leaving
employment at 2.08 million employees in the 1985-90
period. This is a cut of approximately 100,000 jobs
from 1980 levels.
Federal transfer payments are comprised of: (1) un­
employment insurance benefits; (2) social security; (3)
Federal civilian employee retirement; (4) military retire­
ment; (5) hospital and supplementary medical insur­
ance; (6) supplemental security income; and (7) all other
Federal benefit programs. Projections for each category

lion in the high-I version. In addition, Federal taxes as
a proportion of personal income are assumed to decline
throughout the decade. During the 1973-80 period, per­
sonal taxes accounted for an average of 11.1 percent of
personal income, reaching 12.0 percent in 1980. In
1990, the effective rate declines to 10.6 percent in the
low-trend projection, and to 8.9 percent in the version I
high-trend. After 1981, neither scenario anticipates tax
cuts in specific years. Rather, tax revenues are affected
smoothly over the entire period by assuming rate reduc­
tions in each year. In the high-II version, however, Fed­
eral personal effective tax rates are cut 5.0 percent in
1981, 10.0 percent each year in 1982 and 1983, and, fi­
nally, by 5.0 percent in 1984. This results in an effective
rate of 8.8 percent in 1984. The rate is maintained at
this level for the remainder of the decade.
The effective tax rate on corporate profits averaged
approximately 35.0 percent during the 1970’s. In the
low-trend model, corporate tax policy has been set to
lower this effective rate to 32.0 percent by 1990, with
most of the decline occurring in the latter half of the
decade. In contrast, both high-trend projections reach
an effective rate of approximately 28.0 percent by 1990,
with the largest declines occurring early in the decade.
The declining share of profits allocated to taxes results
from tax cuts as well as from an increase in investment
tax credits and more rapid depreciation rates. The ma­
jor difference between the high trends and the low trend
lies more in the timing of the tax cuts than in the mag­
nitude.
Indirect business taxes are maintained, in all three
projections, at a relatively constant share of national in­
come, moving primarily with the inflation rate.
Social insurance contributions are determined primar­
ily by the taxable wage base and by the combined
employer-employee tax rate. In the low-trend alterna­
tive, it is assumed that the provisions of the Social Se­
curity Act of 1977 will be maintained throughout the
decade. This legislation increases the wage base for so­
cial security contributions from $21,900 in 1979 to
$60,300 in 1990, accompanied by an increase in the
OASDHI tax rate to 15.3 percent by 1990. Under these
assumptions, social insurance contributions account for
a constant proportion of national income throughout
the decade.
Under the act, a 1.0-percentage-point increase in the
combined employer-employee tax rate is mandated for
1990 over 1989. The resultant jump in social insurance
contributions leads to a projected Federal Government
surplus of $76 billion. Had the tax rate increase not
been specified for 1990, the surplus would have been
about $30 to $35 billion in the low-growth alternative.
In the high-I alternative, it is assumed that, after
1981, the Social Security Act will be amended. The
wage base in this alternative is assumed to reach




11

are prepared using the expected rate of inflation, esti­
mated changes in recipient population, and a discretion­
ary change which represents real changes in offered
benefits. Real average benefit payments decline by about
—.3 percent during 1980-90 in the low-trend scenario.
In contrast, the high-I projection assumes virtually no
real growth in average transfer payments in the early
half of the decade but a relatively strong real growth of
about 1.5 percent a year during 1985-90. This is based
on the assumption that the stronger growth in real in­
comes in this alternative will renew interest in expan­
sion of social welfare programs. The high-II version is
characterized by sharp cuts in real average benefits of
about 4.0 percent a year during the 1981-84 period,
with very little real growth in average benefits after 1984.
Real grants-in-aid to State and local governments are
assumed to decline over the decade in all projections.
This assumption reflects declining expenditures of the
highway trust fund and a phasing out of general reve­
nue-sharing programs. From 1980 to 1990, real grants
are assumed to decline by 1.9 percent a year in the lowtrend alternative and by 0.9 percent in the two hightrend alternatives. Net jnterest payments and subsidies
to government enterprises are essentially unchanged in
real terms throughout the projection period. The effects
of these assumptions on the national income accounts
measures of Federal receipts and expenditures are
shown in table 1.

ment rates represent possible recovery paths from the
1980 economic slowdown, and, then, long-run targets
a p p ro a c h in g

fu ll-e m p lo y m e n t. F o llo w in g
s u m e d u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te s , 1981--90:

1981 .............. ...................
1982 .............. ...................
1983 .............. ...................
1984 .............. ...................
1985 .............. ...................
1986 .............. ....................
1987 .............. ...................
1988 . ______ ....................
1989 .............. ...................
1990 .............. ...................

TabS© 1. Federal Government receipts and expenditures,
1980, and projected to 1985, and 1990, on a National
Sneom® Accounts basis
[Current dollars in billions]

1980 ........................................
1985 L o w ..............................
H ig h -I..............................
High-II ...........................
1990 L o w ................................
H ig h -I..............................
High-II ...........................




Expendi­
tures

Percent
o f GNP

Surplus o r
d e ficit

538.9
978.8
921.1
825.5
1,594.4
1,431.3
1,234.5

20.5
21.1
19.5
18.5
19.9
18.1
17.9

601.2
982.7
916.0
817.9
1,518.4
1,409.3
1,186.7

22.9
21.2
19.4
18.3
19.0
17.9
17.2

H ig h -I

H ig h -I I

8.1
7.7
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0

8.1
7.6
7.0
6.3
5.5
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.2
4.0

as-

7.8
7.2
6.6
6.4
6.0
5.6
5.3
5.0
4.7
4.5

Some of the post-1985 declines can be ascribed to the
changing age structure of the labor force. However, con­
tinuing real declines are assumed for the entire 1981—
90 period in the projections.
For the private nonfarm sector, the long-term average
annual rate of productivity growth was 2.6 percent be­
tween 1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and 1973, this rate
dropped to 2.1 percent annually and even further to .7
percent during the 1973-80 period. The slowdown in
productivity growth over the last years has been attrib­
uted to many factors, including the influx of new work­
ers into the labor force; slowing in capital accumulation
per worker; an emphasis on nonproductive types of in­
vestment, such as pollution control investment; and the
remarkable increase in energy prices since 1973.
Quite different assumptions are made about possible
paths of productivity growth in the alternatives. The
low-trend projection assumes a continuation of slow
growth in nonfarm productivity— .9 percent real
growth each year between 1980 and 1985, and 1.8 per­
cent between 1985 and 1990. In contrast, the high-I
projection assumes productivity growth of 1.4 percent
each year during 1980-85 and 2.5 percent for 1985-90.
The most optimistic assumptions appear in the high-II
version, with nonfarm output per hour increasing at a
2.2-percent rate each year between 1980-85 and at a
3.0-percent rate during the latter portion of the decade.
Some of the factors which contributed to the produc­
tivity slowdown in the 1970’s are expected to improve
in the coming decade. Members of the postwar baby
boom will become more experienced and productive
during the 1980’s. The rapid rate of growth in expendi­
tures for environmental and energy conservation equip­
ment should slow somewhat during the first half of the
decade, and a slower rate of growth in energy prices
coupled with smaller increases in the demand for energy
is expected to have an impact. Finally, policies which
increase investment incentives should have an impact
later in the decade. However, some argue that techno­
logical breakthrough cannot continue at the rate it did

Unemployment and productivity. The unemployment rate
is viewed as a policy objective. Projected unemploy-

P ercent
Of GNP

th e

Low

Demographic assumptions. The primary determinants of
the demographic data are the level and the age and sex
distribution of the population. Three projected popula­
tion series were developed by the Bureau of the Census,
differing primarily in the assumed fertility rate. The Series-II population projections were used in the economic
projections, as were the associated Series-B household
projections.4 The bls middle-growth labor force projec­
tion is used in the low-trend and high-II versions, and
the high-growth labor force projection is used in the
high-I projection.5

R eceipts

a re

-6 2 .3
- 3 .9
5.1
7.6
76.0
21.9
47.8

12

during the 1970’s. Others argue that poor productivity
performance will continue.6 Because these factors are
difficult to quantify in terms of their impact on future
productivity changes, the range of possible productivity
growth has purposefully been kept broad.

and services. Total GNP and its various components are
presented in table 2 in constant 1972 prices for selected
years from 1955 to 1990. Between 1980 and 1985, lowtrend GNP is projected to increase at an average rate of
2.2 percent each year, roughly the same rate prevalent
in the 1973-80 period, but below the long-term rate of
3.3 percent between 1955 and 1980. In the high-I and
high-II versions, GNP is projected to increase by 3.8 and
3.7 percent, respectively, during 1980-85, well above
the long-term rate.
After 1985, the growth potential continues to im­
prove as better productivity performance more than off­
sets slower labor force growth. Low-trend GNP growth
increases to a 2.8-percent average rate and the hightrend versions to approximately a 4.0-percent rate over
the last years of the decade.
Although all components of GNP are projected to
grow more rapidly in the high-trend versions, the major
difference between these two alternatives and the lowtrend version is in investment. The timing of business
tax incentives for investment in the low-trend model is
such that little impact is noticed on plant and equip­
ment investment before the middle of the decade. In the
high-trend versions, plant and equipment expenditures
are projected to grow strongly over the entire projec­
tion horizon. The other components of demand are also
projected to exceed long-term trend rates of growth in
the high-trend versions and to lag behind these histori­
cal patterns in the low-trend model.

Prices. The final major assumption deals with the infla­
tion rate. The key item is the implicit deflator for
private GNP. Long-term movements of this deflator,
compared with movements in the Consumer Price Index
for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, are as
follows:
Private GNP
deflator

1955-68 ........................................
1968-73 ............. .’ ........................
1973-80 ........................................

2.1
4.6
7.8

CPI

2.0
5.0
9.2

A relatively pessimistic view of inflation possibilities is
taken in the low-trend alternative. The private GNP de­
flator is assumed to increase at a 9.2-percent growth
rate in the 1980-85 period and at an 8.3-percent rate
during 1985-90. The high-! version assumes that infla­
tion will moderate over the longer run. The 1980-85
rate of inflation is set at 7.9 percent; it drops to 6.4 per­
cent over the latter half of the projection period. The
greatest improvement in inflation is assumed to occur in
the high-II projection as the rate of growth of the pri­
vate GNP deflator drops to 7.0 percent in the 1980-85
period, followed by a further decline to a 4.7-percent
rate between 1985 and 1990.
Prices do not directly affect the determination of real
GNP in the BLS model, but they do enter into the projec­
tions in several important ways. First, wages and inter­
est rates are greatly influenced by inflation. These, in
turn, affect consumption expenditures and residential in­
vestment. Second, prices have an impact on the Federal
budget. They enter implicitly into the determination of
various expenditure levels and, on the revenue side, they
affect personal income taxes because of the progressive
tax structure. The future movement of prices is quite
uncertain. The price assumptions used in these projec­
tions are a judgment as to the relative strengths of the
various factors which affect price determination, as well
as an attempt (as with the productivity assumption) to
define a relatively broad band around probable future
price change. The linkage of higher productivity growth
and lower rates of inflation is, to some extent, an arbi­
trary decision in that other combinations of assump­
tions could logically be justified as well.

Consumption. Personal consumption expenditures have
traditionally accounted for the largest share of final pro­
duction. In 1955, personal consumption made up about
60.0 percent of real GNP and has steadily increased its
share to over 63.0 percent in 1980. This trend is pro­
jected to end, at least temporarily, in the three projec­
tions as the greater emphasis on capital formation
becomes apparent. By 1990, total personal consumption
expenditures are expected to account for 61.3 percent of
GNP in the low-trend projection, 62.0 percent in the
high-I version, and 62.8 percent in high-II.
The long-term trend toward relatively more expendi­
tures on durables and services and relatively fewer pur­
chases of nondurable goods is projected to continue in
all three alternatives. In 1955, 13.0 percent of real per­
sonal consumption expenditures was accounted for by
durable goods purchases, which include autos and
parts, furniture and appliances, and recreational items,
such as radios, televisions, and sporting goods; by 1980,
durables accounted for just under 14.5 percent. Pur­
chases of durable goods are projected to increase 3.4
percent a year between 1980 and 1985 in the low-trend
projection and by about 6.3 percent a year in both
high-trend versions. After 1985, such purchases will ac­
celerate to 3.7 percent each year in the low-trend ver­

Aggregate demand
Gross national product consists of personal consump­
tion expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
net foreign trade, and government purchases of goods




13

sion, and will slow to 5.4 and 5.7 percent, respectively,
in high-I and high-II versions. Durables purchases in all
projections are expected to rebound sharply from the
1980 slowdown, increasing their share of total con­
sumption to about 16.0 percent in 1990 in the low-trend
version, and to just under-17.0 percent in the high-trend
alternatives.
As with durables, consumers have allocated an in­
creasing proportion of their incomes to purchases of
services over the post-World War II period. In 1955,
services accounted for 40.0 percent of consumption, but
by 1980 had reached 47.2 percent. This trend is
expected to continue, as services purchases attain be­

Table 2 . G ross national produ ct

by

tween 48.0 and 49.0 percent of personal consumption
expenditures in 1990 in the three alternatives.
As families’ real incomes increase, expenditures for ne­
cessities such as food, basic clothing, and shelter tend
to reach saturation levels. Further real income growth
yields greater amounts of discretionary income for pur­
chasing luxuries. This is one of the reasons for the in­
creases in durable and service purchases relative to
nondurable expenditures. Nondurable purchases ac­
counted for 47.0 percent of consumer spending in 1955,
dipping to 38.3 percent by 1980.
Investment. Gross private domestic investment consists

m ajor co m p o n en t, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1980, and p ro je c te d to 1985 and 1990

[1972 dollars in billions]

A
ctual
Com
ponent

Gross national product ........................................................................
Personal consumption expenditures................................................................
Gross private domestic investment ................................................................
Nonresidential structures .............................................................................
Producers’ durable e qu ip m en t.....................................................................
Residential investment ..................................................................................
Change in business inventories ...................................................................
Net e x p o rts ...........................................................................................................
E x p o rts .............................................................................................................
Imports .............................................................................................................
Government purchases ....................................................................................
Federal .............................................................................................................
D e fe n se ........................................................................................................
N o n d e fe n se .................................................................................................
State and local ..............................................................................................

Projected

1955

1SS8

1973

1980

657.5
394.1
103.8
25.4
35.9
34.8
7.7
7.3
30.7
23.4
152.3
88.2

1,058.1
634.4
161.6
42.8

1,255.0
768.5
217.5
47.4
90.7
62.3
17.2
15.5
97.3
81.8
253.5
95.9
68.3
27.6
157.6

1,480.7
935.1
203.7
48.4
110.0
48.2
- 3 .0
52.0
161.1
109.1
290.0
108.2
70.9
37.2
181.9

(’ )

6
6.8

43.1
9.0
1.9
61.2
59.3
260.2
128.1
(’ )

(')

(’ )

64.1

132.1

1985

1980

L
ow

H
igh-I

H -II
igh

L
ow

H
igh-I

H -II
igh

1,653.3
1,001.0
263.6
46.4
135.3
67.6
14.3
60.8
202.0
141.2
327.9
128.9
93.4
35.5
199.0

1,784.7
1,094.5
310.1
49.3
163.5
78.5
18.8
55.6
209.7
154.1
324.7
126.6
91.6
35.0
198.1

1,775.1
1,091.3
309.7
49.2
164.8
77.0
18.7
49.0
203.4
154.4
324.9
125.9
93.7
32.2
199.0

1,902.4
1,166.5
315.8
55.5
172.6
70.9
16.8
73.4
246.2
172.8
346.9
140.3
103.3
37.0
206.6

2,172.6
1,346.0
420.2
62.4
240.9
92.1
24.8
62.2
270.3
208.1
344.4
135.3
98.8
36.5
209.1

2,171.8
1,364.0
422.6
62.8
243.5
91.6
24.7
37.7
249.1
211.4
347.6
137.5
104.1
33.4
210.1

100.0
61.5
17.4
2.8
9.3
4.3
1.1
2.8
11.5
-8 .7
18.3
7.1
5.3
1.8
11.2

100.0
61.3
16.6
2.9
9.1
3.7
.9
3.9
12.9
-9 .1
18.2
7.4
5.4
1.9
10.9

100.0
62.0
19.3
2.9
11.1
4.2
1.1
2.9
12.4
- 9 .6
15.9
6.2
4.5
1.7
9.6

100.0
62.8
19.5
2.9
11.2
4.2
1.1
1.7
11.5
- 9 .7
16.0
6.3
4.8
1.5
9.7

Percent distribution
Gross national product ........................................................................
Personal consumption expenditures. . : .........................................................
Gross private domestic investment ...................................................... , . . .
Nonresidential structures .............................................................................
Producers' durable e q u ip m en t.....................................................................
Residential investment ..................................................................................
Change in business inventories ...................................................................
Net e x p o rts ...........................................................................................................
E x p o rts .............................................................................................................
Im p o rts ..............................................................................................................
Government purchases ....................................................................................
F e d e ra l.............................................................................................................
D e fe n se ........................................................................................................
N o n d e fe n se .................................................................................................
State and local ..............................................................................................

100.0
59.9
15.8
3.9
5.5
5.3
1.2
1.1
4.7
- 3 .6
23.2
13.4
(')
(')

9.7

100.0
60.0
15.3
4.0
6.3
4.1
.9
.2
5.8
- 5 .6
24.6
12.1

100.0
61.2
17.3
3.8
7.2
5.0
1.4
1.2
7.8
-6 .5
20.2
7.6
5.4
2.2
12.6

(')
n

12.5

100.0
63.2
13.8
3.3
7.4
3.3
-.2
3.5
10.9
- 7 .4
19.6
7.3
4.8
2.5
12.3

100.0
60.5
15.9
2.8
8.2
4.1
.9
3.7
12.2
- 8 .5
19.8
7.8
5.6
2.1
12.0

100.0
61.3
17.4
2.8
9.2
4.4
1.1
3.1
11.7
- 8 .6
18.2
7.1
5.1
2.0
11.1

A
verage annual rate of change
1955-68
Gross national product ........................................................................
Personal consumption expenditures................................................................
Gross private domestic investment ................................................................
Nonresidential structures ............................................. ...........................
Producers’ durable equ ip m en t.....................................................................
Residential investment ..................................................................................
Change in business inventories ...................................................................
Net e x p o rts ...........................................................................................................
E x p o rts .............................................................................................................
Imports .............................................................................................................
Government purchases ....................................................................................
F e d e ra l.............................................................................................................
D e fe n se ........................................................................................................
Nondefense .................................................................................................
State and local ..............................................................................................
1 Not available.
2 Not computable.




1988-73

1973-80

3.7
3.7
3.5
4.1
4.9
1.7
1.2
- 9 .8
5.5
7.4
4.2
2.9
(’)
(’ )
5.7

3.5
3.9
6.1
2.1
6.3
7.6
13.8
52.2
9.7
6.6

2.4
2.8
- .9
.3
2.8
- 3 .6
( 2)
18.9
7.5
4.2
1.9
1.7
.5
4.4
2.1

-.5
- 5 .6
( )
( )
3.6

1980-85
2.2
1.4
5.3
- .8
4.2
7.0
( 2)
3.2
4.6
5.3
2.5
3.6
5.7
- .9
1.8

3.8
3.2
8.8
.4
8.2
10.2
( 2)
1.3
5.4
7.2
2.3
3.2
5.3
-1 .2
1.7

1985-90
3.7
3.1
8.7
.3
8.4
9.8
(2)

- 1 .2
4.8
7.2
2.3
3.1
5.7
- 2 .8
1.8

2.8
3.1
3.7
3.6
5.0
1.0
3.3
3.8
4.0
4.1
1.1
1.7
2.0
.8
.8

4.0
4.2
6.3
4.8
8.1
3.2
5.7
2.3
5.2
6.2
1.2
1.3
1.5
.8
1.1

4.1
4.6
6.4
5.0
8.1
3.5
5.7
-5.1
4.1
6.5
1.4
1.8
2.1
.7
1.1

N o t e : Gross national product data reflect the benchmark revisions released in December 1980
by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

14

increasing costs and also because of greater interest in
leisure-time pursuits. The shift toward more energy-effi­
cient, less costly multifamily homes is expected to con­
tinue throughout the 1980’s. The rate is difficult to pre­
dict, however, and is the major difference between the
low- and high-trend versions.
A final demographic factor affecting the projection of
residential investment is the prediction that new house­
hold formation will slow dramatically in coming years,
declining from 2.7 percent in 1980 to 1.9 percent in
1985 and to 1.6 percent in 1990. Although the slow­
down is apparent over the entire decade, the effects are
not expected to be seen until the latter half because of
the pent-up demand left over from the recessions of the
1970’s.
In the low-trend projection, a moderate recovery
from the 1980 slowdown is expected as real residential
investment increases at a rate of 7.0 percent between
1980 and 1985, reaching $67.6 billion in 1985. In both
high-trend alternatives, a sharp comeback from the
1980 recession is expected. In the high-I projection, the
expected rate of growth is 10.2 percent, attaining a level
of $78.5 billion. The high-II version attains a growth
rate of 9.8 percent over the five-year period. In all three
cases, housing starts are expected to rebound to the
2.0-million unit level by 1984 or 1985. The primary rea­
son for less growth in the low-trend alternative is that
continued high inflation is expected to hasten the shift
from single-family to multifamily dwellings. Because
multifamily units usually cost somewhat less than sin­
gle-family homes, increases in total real expenditures
will, be lower; In all alternatives, real residential invest­
ment expenditures account for between 4.1 and 4.3 per­
cent of GNP in 1985, approximately the share attained
at the prior peak in the 1977-78 period.
After 1985, the demographic effects become apparent
as growth in high-trend residential investment falls to
an annual rate of 3.2 and 3.5 percent between 1985 and
1990 in versions high-I and high-II. In the low-trend
model, virtually no growth is anticipated during the lat­
ter half of the decade. Annual housing starts are
expected to decline from about 2.0 million units in 1985
to between 1.7 and 1.9 million units by 1990.
Between 1955 and .1968, business fixed investment
grew by 4.6 percent a year. Between 1968 and 1973,
growth remained virtually the same at 4.7 percent a
year. During the remainder of the 1970’s, however,
growth of real business expenditures for plant and
equipment slowed sharply to a rate of 2.0 percent
growth in the 1973-80 period. In the low-trend version,
2.8-percent growth per year is projected for the 1980-85
period. In other words, the rate of change in business
investment apparent in the 1970’s will continue for the
first half of the 1980’s after an initial Upsurge in 1981.
After 1985, the more representative long-term growth

of (1) purchases of residential structures; (2) investment
in nonresidential structures; (3) purchases of producers’
durable equipment; and (4) changes in inventories of
businesses. Historically, gross domestic investment has
accounted for 15.0 to 16.0 percent of GNP. At the same
time, on a year-over-year basis, it is one of the most
volatile elements of final output. This is because invest­
ment, more than any other component of GNP, repre­
sents the anticipations of business for future profits and
potential growth and, thus, tends to fluctuate rather
sharply as those expectations change.
For example, in 1975, domestic investment fell to
$155 billion in real terms (more than $60 billion below
the 1973 level), a 12.5-percent share of GNP (down from
more than 17.0 percent in 1973). But, by 1980, invest­
ment had recovered and accounted for about 15.0 per­
cent of GNP. Because of its anticipatory role, investment
is an important key in determining the long-run growth
potential of the economy. In essence, it represents cur­
rent commitments to future growth and is an important
source of productivity gains. In the three alternatives,
gross investment is expected to grow far more rapidly
than during the 1970’s. Between 1973 and 1980, gross
investment declined at an average annual rate of .9 per­
cent. The low-trend model projects an average growth
rate of 5.3 percent during 1980-90, while the expecta­
tions in the high-trend versions are for 8.8-percent an­
nual growth.
The housing sector of the economy is one of the more
volatile segments of fixed investment expenditures. The
demand for new housing has been expanding steadily
throughout the postwar period. The number of house­
holds increased by more than 30 million during 1955—
80, an average annual increase of 2.1 percent, or 1.3
million new households every year. The rate of new
household formation has also accelerated, from 2.0 per­
cent in 1955 to 2.7 percent in 1980, not only because of
the baby-boom bulge, but also because of an increasing
tendency toward single-person households.
At the same time, the ability of the housing sector to
meet the demand for new housing is greatly dependent
on financial considerations, especially the availability of
credit. Because interest rates and credit availability are
closely tied to the business cycle, swings in real output
can have a substantial impact on housing. For example,
during the 1975 recession, total private housing starts
dropped more than 43.0 percent from the peak of 2.4
million in 1972. Real expenditures for residential invest­
ment fell by 34.0 percent during the same period.
When the supply and demand considerations are
combined, it is reasonable to assume that the recessions
of 1970, 1975, and 1980 have created much pent-up de­
mand for new housing. However, demand for housing
has been changing. Many families are giving up the
“American dream” of a single-family home because of




15

trend version to 4.0 percent average growth in the highII case. The stock of business inventories is expected, in
all projections, to expand slowly relative to GNP, re­
flecting historical trends.

rates (4.7 percent) will return, as a result of the impact
of corporate tax assumptions and increasing corporate
revenues.
In the high-trend versions, quite different assump­
tions are made regarding both the timing and intensity
of fiscal incentives for business investment. Investment
in plant and equipment is expected to increase by 6.2
percent a year during 1980-85, then accelerate to 7.3
percent growth, topping $300 billion in 1990. This com­
ponent accounts for 14.0 percent of GNP in 1990 in
both high-trend projections, up from an average of
about 11.0 percent in the 1970’s. The tax assumptions
and the resulting impact on business investment are
based on the growing realization that long-term im­
provements in productivity growth will depend on new
plant and equipment purchases. The impact of fixed
business investment on the stock of private nonfarm
capital7is shown in the following growth rates:
Actual
1955-68 ........................................................
1968-73 ........................................................
1973-80 ............................................

3.7
4.4
3.7

________ Projected_
Low
1980-85 ..........................................
1985-90 ..........................................

High-I

High-II

3.4
4.2

4.1
5.4

4.1
5.5

The slowing growth of the capital stock in the 1973—
80 period will continue through 1985 in the low-trend
version, before improving slightly during 1985-90. The
assumptions underlying the high-trend versions lead to
expectations of a strong recovery over the entire 1980
decade.
The ratio of capital to hours paid in the nonfarm sec­
tor is a general measure of how much plant and equip­
ment is available to workers for producing output. The
ratio is considered an important determinant of labor
productivity growth. Between 1955 and 1975, this ratio
expanded at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in real terms,
increasing from $7,000 of capital available per workerhour in 1955 to $12,000 in 1975. Between 1975 and
1980, however, the ratio rose by only .6 percent each
year, to $12,400.
Only slight recoveries are projected for this ratio dur­
ing the first half of the 1980’s in the low- and high-I
projections. In the low-trend version, this is a result of
continuing slow growth in investment. In the high-I
case, the much higher investment rates are offset by the
higher assumed labor force growth rates (and conse­
quent increases in total hours paid). In the high-II ver­
sion, the high investment rates ‘combined with lower
employment levels lead to the fairly strong annual
growth of 2.2 percent over the 1980-85 period. After
1985, all three projections attain strong growth in the
capital-hours ratio, ranging from 2.9 percent in the low-




16

Foreign trade. Both imports and exports have accounted
for an increasing share of GNP, and this trend is
expected to continue throughout the 1980-90 period. In
current dollars, the balance on the current and long­
term capital account is assumed to be a policy variable
with the long-term value of zero. Such a policy would
maintain the current-dollar balance on goods and ser­
vices at a relatively low positive level. In the past, be­
cause import and export prices tended to move together
in terms of both levels and rates, a zero current-dollar
balance implied a zero constant-dollar balance. During
the 1970’s, average import prices grew at a much faster
rate did average export prices. The disparity was pri­
marily due to much higher petroleum prices, although
world inflation generally was higher than in the United
States. It is assumed that foreign prices will once again
move at roughly the same pace as export prices during
the projection period, but it is also expected that the dif­
ference in level will never be made up. Therefore, as the
United States strives to maintain a current-dollar bal­
ance of trade, the impact on constant dollar trade will
be a generally more rapid rate of growth in exports rel­
ative to imports, thereby improving the real balance of
trade over time.
Government The government portion of GNP comprises
purchases of goods and services and compensation of
employees. All other expenditures are excluded by defi­
nition. Real purchases by Federal, State, and local gov­
ernments accounted for almost 25.0 percent of GNP in
1968; since then, the share of GNP accounted for by
purchases of goods and services has declined, reaching
the 19.6-percent level by 1980. This drop was due al­
most entirely to the cessation of U.S. military involve­
ment in Vietnam.
Real Federal purchases fell at an average rate of 1.4
percent during the 1968-80 period because of large de­
clines in defense spending. Federal purchases as a share
of GNP fell sharply, from 12.1 percent in 1968 to 7.3
percent in 1980. State and local government purchases
also declined as a proportion of GNP during 1968-70.
The trend toward a smaller share of production
accounted for by government purchases is expected to
continue throughout the 1980’s in the two high-trend
versions. In all projections, Federal defense purchases
grow sharply in real terms during the early 1980’s, and
slow slightly after 1985. Defense purchases are project­
ed to stabilize at about 5.0 percent of GNP over the lat­
ter half of the decade. As noted earlier, virtually no
change in military force levels is assumed during the
1980’s. Therefore, the increases in real defense expendi­

tures are expected to be replacing obsolete materiel and
performing research and development for more sophisti­
cated weapons systems.
Nondefense purchases, in contrast, are expected to
decline at a 1.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate between
1980 and 1985, and to grow by less than 1.0 percent
each year after 1985 in all projections. This reflects the
assumption that many programs will experience rela­
tively slower growth or be scaled back in the 1980’s,
while the primary emphasis shifts to defense prepared­
ness. The net effect is to drop Federal purchases of
goods and services from 7.3 percent of GNP in 1980 to
about 6.5 percent by 1990 in the high-trend versions.
In the low-trend projection, Federal purchases will
continue to account for roughly the same proportion of
GNP throughout the decade.
In the State and local sector, the largest change from
prior trends is expected in the education sector. As the
baby-boom generation matures, the number of school
enrollees should decline smoothly over the entire de­
cade. A sharp slowdown in the growth of educational
purchases is projected to 1985, with absolute declines
subsequently. The children of the baby-boom generation
are expected to increase educational demand beginning
around 1985, but the effect will be mild and relatively
short-lived.
Purchases of goods less compensation for public safe­
ty are projected to decline sharply in the early 1980’s as
the rapidly increasing cost of fuel affects the purchases
of new equipment for police and firefighters. The re­
maining categories of State and local purchases are
expected to grow much less rapidly over the coming de­
cade. The net effect of these considerations is to lower
State and local purchases from 12.3 percent of GNP in
1980 to the 10.0- to 11.0-percent range in 1990.
It should be emphasized that government’s declining
share of GNP during the 1980’s does not mean that gov­
ernment purchases are expected to decline in absolute
terms. Rather, the expected growth rate— 1.8 percent
between 1980 and 1990—is somewhat lower than the
overall GNP growth rate.
In summary, three scenarios have been set for eco­
nomic growth in the 1980’s: the first reflecting moderate
increases and the others showing a return to the strong
growth of the 1950’s and 1960’s. With the assumptions
underlying the projections, the most notable occurrence
in the 1980’s is the shift in spending from the public
sector to the private sector, especially for investment.
However, the change depends on the fiscal assumptions
discussed earlier; with other assumptions, the results
could be different.

These factors are detailed in table 3. During the 25
years between 1955 and 1980, the number of jobs in­
creased from 68.7 million to 105.6 million, or about 1.5
million jobs a year. During this period, many important
shifts occurred. Military force levels declined from 3
million in 1955 to 2.1 million in 1980. Agricultural em­
ployment also declined, from 6.4 million to 2.8 million
jobs, because of increases in farm productivity. Civilian
government employment, in contrast, grew from 9.4
percent of total employment in 1955 to 14.6 percent in
1980, an increase of 8.9 million. Most of this growth—
8.3 million jobs— occurred in State and local govern­
ment. Private nonfarm employment increased by 33 mil­
lion jobs, a growth of more than 1.3 million each year,
increasing its share of employment from 76.8 percent in
1955 to 80.8 percent in 1980.
Several major changes in employment are expected to
occur in the alternatives. Total employment is expected
to increase at an average rate of 1.6 percent each year
between 1980 and 1985 in the low-growth and high-II
versions. This amounts to 2.2 million jobs a year, a
more rapid increase than that projected for the total la­
bor force— 1.7 percent each year, or 1.9 million new la­
bor force entrants. The higher employment growth re­
flects the relatively rapid decline in the unemployment
rate following the 1980 slowdown. In the high-! ver­
sion, a higher labor force projection, combined with an
even more rapid decline in the unemployment rate,
yields total annual employment growth of 2.4 percent
between 1980 and 1985, or slightly fewer than 2.7 mil­
lion jobs a year.
In all alternatives, the rate of employment growth be­
gins to slow in the latter half of the decade, to 1.4, 1.9,
and 1.5 percent, respectively, for the low-, high-I, and
high-II models. This reflects the projected slowdown in
labor force growth after 1985.
The share of jobs between the public and private sec­
tors is an important determinant of the level of real
supply GNP, because productivity in the public sector is
assumed to be nearly constant.8Therefore, if public em­
ployment accounted for larger shares of total employ­
ment, the associated growth in real GNP would be
reduced. Federal employment is expected to expand
during the 1980-90 period, but the rate of growth (.1
percent annually) is considerably less than the total em­
ployment growth expected in all three alternatives. The
military force level is projected to virtually stabilize at
the current level of 2.1 million persons for all alterna­
tives. State and local government employment is also
expected to grow less rapidly than total employment. In
the latter half of the 1950’s and during all of the 1960’s,
the growth in State and local employment was due, in
large part, to very rapid growth in public education.
School enrollment, however, moderated during the lat­
ter 1970’s. The echo effect from the baby-boom genera­
tion will begin to be seen around 1985, but will be

Employment and honrs
The number of jobs, the average number of hours
paid per job, and the level of real output per hour are
key determinants of potential output in the economy.



17

Tab le 3. Labor fo rce, em p lo ym en t, productivity, and gross national product, 1955, 1988, 1973, and 1980, and p ro je c te d to
1985 and 1990
[Employment data in thousands ]
A ctual

P rojected

C ategory

1885
1955

Total labor force (including military) .................................................
Unemployed ...................................................................................................
Employed (persons co n ce p t)........................................................................
Adjustment factor (persons to jo b s ) ...........................................................
Employment (jobs concept) .............................................................................
General governm ent.......................................................................................
Federal ........................................................................................................
M ilita ry ......................................................................................................
C iv ilia n ......................................................................................................
State and lo c a l............................................................................................
Private .............................................................................................................
A g ricu ltu re ...................................................................................................
Nonagriculture ............................................................................................
Private average annual hours per job ...........................................................
A g ricu ltu re ...................................................................................................
Nonagriculture ............................................................................................
Private GNP per hour (1972 dollars) ..............................................................
A g ricu ltu re ...................................................................................................
Nonagriculture ............................................................................................
Total GNP (billions of 1972 d o lla rs )................................................................
General governm ent.......................................................................................
Private .............................................................................................................
A g ricu ltu re ...................................................................................................
Nonagriculture ............................................................................................

1888

1973

1980

68,072
2,853
65,219
3,438
68,657
9,520
4,779
3,049
1,730
4,741
59,137
6,424
52,713
2,126
2,473
2,083
4.56
1.84
4.95
657.5
84.6
572.9
29.3
543.6

82,272
2,817
79,455
4,409
83,864
14,521
5,670
3,535
2,135
8,851
69,343
3,663
65,680
2,001
2,354
1,981
6.67
3.36
6.89
1,058.1
132.4
925.7
29.0
896.7

91,040
4,305
86,735
4,557
91,292
15,185
4,354
2,326
2,028
10,831
76,107
3,206
72,901
1,961
2,290
1,943
7.48
4,30
7.65
1,255.0
139.1
1,115.9
31.6
1,084.3

106,821
7,448
99,373
6,188
105,561
17,481
4,402
2,102
2,300
13,079
88,080
2,823
85,257
1,884
2,311
1,870
7.99
6.21
8.06
1,480.7
155.2
1,325.5
40.5
1,285.0

1850

Low

H igh-I

H ig h -ll

Low

H igh-I

H ig h -ll

117,114
8,049
109,065
4,697
113,762
17,587
4,355
2,129
2,226
13,232
96,175
2,622
93,553
1,856
2,301
1,844
8.35
6.05
8.43
1,653.3
163.0
1,490.3
36.5
1,453.8

120,381
6,504
113,877
5,090
118,967
17,587
4,355
2,129
2,226
13,232
101,380
2,922
98,458
1,865
2,301
1,852
8.58
6.25
8.66
1,784.7
163.0
1,621.7
42.0
1,579.7

117,114
6,899
110,215
4,705
114,920
17,441
4,209
2,129
2,080
13,232
97,479
2,922
94,557
1,862
2,301
1,848
8.89
6.26
8.99
1,775.1
161.4
1,613.7
42.1
1,571.6

124,504
7,342
117,162
4,796
121,958
18,106
4,429
2,129
2,300
13,677
103,852
2,334
101,518
1,819
2,246
1,809
9.17
7.18
9.23
1,902.4
169.7
1,732.7
37.6
1,695.1

130,252
5,125
125,127
5,524
130,651
18,106
4,429
2,129
2,300
13,677
112,545
2,634
109,911
1,825
2,246
1,815
9.75
7.95
9.80
2,172.6
169.7
2,002.9
47.0
1,955.9

124,504
5,507
118,997
4,947
123,944
17,886
4,209
2,129
2,080
13,677
108,058
2,634
103,424
1,824
2,246
1,814
10.36
8.00
10.43
2,171.8
167.1
2,004.7
47.3
1,957.4

A verage annual rate o f change
1955-68
Total labor force (including military) .................................................
Unemployed ...................................................................................................
Employed (persons co n ce p t)........................................................................
Adjustment factor (persons to jo b s ) ...........................................................
Employment (jobs concept) .............................................................................
General governm ent.......................................................................................
Federal ........................................................................................................
M ilita ry .....................................................................................................
C iv ilia n .....................................................................................................
State and lo c a l...........................................................................................
Private . , ........................................................................................................
A g ricu ltu re ...................................................................................................
Nonagriculture ...........................................................................................
Private average annual hours per job ...........................................................
A g ricu ltu re ...................................................................................................
Nonagriculture ............................................................................................
Private GNP per hour (1972 dollars) ..............................................................
A g ricu ltu re ...................................................................................................
Nonagriculture ............................................................................................
Total GNP (billions of 1972 dollars) .................................................
General g overnm ent......................................................................................
Private .............................................................................................................
A g ricu ltu re ...................................................................................................
Nonagriculture ............................................................................................

1SS8-73

1.5
-.1
1.5
1.9
1.5
3.3
1.3
1.1
1.6
4.9
1.2
- 4 .2
1.7
- .5
- .4
- .4
3.0
4.7
2.6
3.7
3.5
3.8
-.1
3.9

1973-80

2.0
8.9
1.8
.7
1.7
.9
5.1
- 3.0
.0
4.1
1.9
2.6
2.1
-.4
-.6
-.4
2.3
5.1
2.1
3.5
1.0
3.8
1.7
3.9

1880-85

2.3
8.1
2.0
4.5
2.1
2.0
.2
- 1 .4 ■
1.8
2.7
2.1
-1 .8
2.3
-.6
.1
-.5
.9
5.4
.7
2.4
1.6
2.5
3.6
2.5

_

1.9
1.6
1.9
-5 .4
1.5
.1
- .2
.3
- .7
.2
1.8
-1 .5
1.9
- .3
-.1
- .3
.9
-.5
.9
2.2
1.0
2.4
-2.1
2.5

2.4
-2 .7
2.8
- 3 .8
2.4
.1
- .2
.3
- .7
.2
2.9
.7
2.9
- .2
-.1
- .2
1.4
.1
1.4
3.8
1.0
4.1
.7
4.2

1£35-80
1.9
- 1 .5
2.1
- 5 .3
1.7
(’ )
- .9
.3
- 2 .0
.2
2.0
.7
2.1
- .2
-.1
- .2
2.2
.2
2.2
3.7
.8
4.0
.8
4.1

1.2
- 1 .8
1.4
.4
1.4
.6
.3
( ')
.7
.7
1.5
-2 .3
1.6
- .4
- .5
- .4
1.9
3.5
1 .8 '.
2.8
.8
3.1
.6
3.1

1.6
-4 .7
1.9
1.6
1.9
.6
.3
(’ >
.7
.7
2.1
-2 .1
2.2
- .4
- .5
- .4
2.6
4.9
2.5
4.0
.8
4.3
2.3
4.4

1.2
-4 .4
1.5
1.0
1.5
.5
<’ )
( ')
( ')
.7
1.7
-2.1
1.8
- .4
- .5
- .4
3.1
5.0
3.0
4.1
.7
4.4
2.4
4.5

’ Less than 0.05 percent

relatively insignificant until after 1990. The result is an
annual growth in the number of education-related em­
ployees of .3 percent during the 1980-85 period, and
annual declines of .5 percent during 1985-90. The de­
clines, however, will be somewhat offset by continued
growth in other programs and the administrative em­
ployment associated with these programs, although at a
less rapid rate than in the past. As a result, private em­
ployment is expected to expand more rapidly than total
employment over the entire projection period in all al­
ternatives. Following are the proportion of private and




government employment for 1980, 1985, and 1990:
1985

__________

1990

1980

Low

High-I

High-ll

Low

High-I

High-ll

83 .4

84.5

85 .2

84 .8

8 5 .2

86.1

85.6

2.7

2 .3

2.5

2.5

1.9

2 .0

2.1

. .

80.8

8 2 .2

82 .8

82.3

8 3 .2

84.1

83.4

.

16.6

15.5

14.8

15.2

14.8

13.9

14.4

F e d e ra l . . .

4 .2

3.8

3.7

3.7

3 .6

3.4

3 .4

12.4

11.6

11.1

11.5

11.2

10.5

11.0

tio n

6.5

5.9

5.6

5.8

5.3

5.0

5.2

O th e r

5 .9

5.8

5.5

5.8

5.9

5.5

5.8

P r i v a t e .............
F a rm

....

N o n farm
G o v e rn m e n t
S ta te a n d
lo c a l

. . .

Educa-

18

The declining share of government employment re­
flects the impact of demographic shifts, as well as the
apparent public preference for a smaller government
role in the civilian sector of the economy.
Hours. Average weekly hours paid are projected to con­
tinue to decline at approximately the long-term histori­
cal rate. In the private nonfarm sector, the long-term
decrease in weekly hours has been influenced by the
treed toward more service employees, which lowers av­
erage hours because many work short weeks or on a
part-time basis, and by the increase in female labor
force participation, which began in the mid-1960’s.
Many of these women took part-time positions. This
contributed to the service sector effect which is project­
ed to continue ancj will cut averge weekly hours. Fe­
male labor force participation rates are also projected to
grow at a rather strong pace during the 1980’s. Howev­
er, it is assumed that the disparity between part-time
jobholding rates of men and women will diminish dur­
ing the 1980’s; thus, the growth of female labor force
participation will no longer have an appreciable impact

on the average workweek. Women are expected to be
increasingly employed in all sectors of the economy.
a l t e r n a t i v e p a t h s of growth encompass reason­
able possibilities for expansion of the economy during
the 1980’s. The low-trend projection examines the im­
plications of a moderately expanding labor force, con­
tinued low growth in productivity, and high inflation.
The high-trend projections study the effects of a more
rapidly expanding labor force (high-I) coupled with
more optimistic assumptions regarding both productivi­
ty and inflation. The projected range of real GNP growth
averages between 2.5 and 3.9 percent annually over the
1980-90 period, yielding a difference among the alter­
native scenarios of $270 billion by 1990. The projections
hinge on the underlying assumptions and could be
significantly affected by even small changes in the latter.
These are medium-term projections of theU.S. economy,
and no attempt has been made to forecast cyclical
fluctuations. The projections should not be construed
as a forecast of a likely growth path but as the pro­
bable range of economic growth during the 1980’s. □

T he

FOOTNOTES
' The projections are part of a BLS program of studies aimed at an­
alyzing long-run economic growth. The primary objective is to devel­
op projections of employment and occupational requirements under
alternative assumptions. Other articles in the series discuss industry
projections of output and employment and future trends in occupa­
tional demand. As part of a continuing program to assess the validity
of BLS projections, future articles will evaluate the projections of the
U.S. economy for 1980. For previous articles, see Norman C.
Saunders, “The U.S. economy to 1990: two projections for growth,”
Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 36-46; Arthur
Andreassen, “Changing patterns of demand: BLS projections to
1990,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 47-55; Valerie A.
Personick, “Industry output and employment: BLS projections to
1990,” Monthly Labor Review,
April 1979, pp. 3-14; Thomas
Nardone, “The Job Outlook in Brief, Based on the Occupational Out­
look Handbook, 1980-81 ’ dition,” Occupational O utlook Quarterly,
E
Spring 1980, pp. 2-21; Paul T. Christy and Karen J. Horowitz,
“Evaluation of b l s projections of 1975 output and employment,”
Monthly Labor Review, August 1979, pp. 8— and Max L. Carey,
19;
“Evaluating the 1975 occupational employment projections,” Month­
ly Labor Review, June 1980, pp. 10-21.
2
See Lester C. Thurow, “A Fiscal Policy Model of the United
States,” Survey o f Current Business, June 1969, pp. 45-64. The BLS
economic growth model is a software system comprised of a modified
version of the Thurow macroeconomic model, several demand
submodels, and an input-output and industry level employment mod­
el. A detailed methodological description of the current model is be­
ing prepared for publication, as is a description of the operating
system.
' The Department of Energy projections are taken from the energy
forecasts developed for the Energy Information Agency’s Annual Re­
port to Congress, 1979 (June 1980), a medium international oil price
version. They assume an average landed crude oil price of $37 per
barrel by 1990, in 1979 dollars.




19

4 Projections of the Population of the United States: 1977 to 2050,
Current Population Reports (Bureau of the Census, Series P-25, No.
704, 1977) and Projections of the Number of Households in the Unit­
ed States: 1979 to 2000, Current Population Reports (Bureau of the
Census, Series P-25, No. 805, 1979).
5Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: a first look,”
Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21.
6 A tremendous amount of material has been written on the reasons
behind the slowdown in productivity growth. Major studies include
R. Kutscher, G. Mark, and J. R. Norsworthy, “The productivity
slowdown and the outlook to 1985,” Monthly Labor Review, May
1977, pp. 3-8; J. R. Norsworthy, M. Harper, and J. Kunze, “The
Slowdown in Productivity Growth: an Analysis of Some Contributing
Factors,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, 1979; P.
Clark, “Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown,”
Journal o f Finance, June 1978, pp. 967-75; D. Hudson and E.
Jorgenson, “Energy Prices and the U.S. Economy, 1972-1976,” Data
Resources Review, September 1976, pp. 1.24-1.37; J. Beebe, “A Note
on Intersectoral Shifts and Aggregate Productivity Change,” Annals
o f Economic and Social Measurement, Summer 1975, pp. 389-95; and
E. Denison, Accounting for Slower Economic Growth (Washington,
D.C. Brookings Institution, 1979).
The estimates of capital stock developed in the projections are
consistent with the gross stocks series presented in Fixed Nonresidential Business and Residential Capital in the United States, 192575 (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
1976).
8By national income accounting conventions, there is no change
over time in government productivity. Rather, it is assumed that real
output for a government employee is equal to that person’s compen­
sation in the dollar base year (1972 in this case). Apparent changes in
average real compensation reflect shifts in the grade structure of gov­
ernment employees over time.

The outlook for industry output
and employment through 1990
The future looks bright for service,
durable goods, and high-technology industries;
projections assume lower unemployment and
taxes, higher investment and productivity,
and continued oil scarcity
Valerie A. P ersonick

sion of public sector employment during the 1960’s re­
flected strong demand for teachers and other education­
al personnel as the baby-boom generation entered
school, effects of the Vietnam war buildup, and in­
creases in government services resulting from “Great
Society” and- other programs. Job growth in miscella­
neous service industries was also stronger than for the
economy as a whole, while manufacturing, the largest
sector in 1959, had a growth rate just about equal to
the all-industries average.
During the 1970’s, job growth accelerated in the sec­
tors defined as service-producing but slowed in manu­
facturing and government. Between 1969 and 1979,
employment rose 4.0 percent annually in other (or mis­
cellaneous) services, 3.6 percent in finance, insurance,
and real estate, and 3.0 percent in trade, but only 0.5
percent in manufacturing and 1.1 percent in govern­
ment. By the end of the decade, wholesale and retail
trade had replaced manufacturing as the largest employ­
ment sector. The fast-growing miscellaneous services
sector ranked third, having overtaken government.
Thus, while almost 1 out of every 4 jobs was in a man­
ufacturing industry in 1959, by 1979 this sector
accounted for only 1 out of every 5 jobs. In contrast,
jobs in other services represented less than 1 of 7 in
1959, but by 1979 had expanded to almost 1 of 5.
During the 1980’s, these trends are expected to con­
tinue under the conditions assumed by BLS for the 1990
economy. Other services is projected to continue to be
the fastest-growing sector, accounting for more jobs
than manufacturing by 1985. The employment shares of
trade, mining, and finance, insurance, and real estate are

The structure of employment in the United States has
undergone considerable change in recent decades. Al­
though employment is growing in virtually all sectors of
the economy, growth has been much more rapid in ser­
vice-producing industries than in goOds-producing in­
dustries. This trend is projected to continue under the
economic conditions assumed by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics in its revised projections for the next decade,
although at a different pace.
Three alternative scenarios for industry output and
employment growth were prepared. The low-trend ver­
sion assumes a decline in the rate of expansion of the
labor force, continued high inflation, moderate produc­
tivity gains, and modest increases in real output and
employment. In high-trend version I, the economy is
buoyed by larger labor force growth, much lower unem­
ployment rates, higher production, dampening of price
increases, and greater improvements in productivity.
The third alternative, high-trend II, is characterized by
the rapid output growth of high-trend I but assumes
the same labor force as the low-trend version. Produc­
tivity gains are quite substantial in this alternative.

Summary of employment: ftrenis
Between 1959 and 1969, total employment in the
United States rose by 2.0 percent a year. The most rap­
id increase was posted by the government sector, which
grew at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent. Expan-

Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office of Economic
Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




20

also expected to rise over the next decade, while manu­
facturing, agriculture, transportation, communications,
and public utilities, although posting gains during the
1980’s, are projected to represent smaller portions of all
jobs.
Under the low-trend assumptions, total employment
will rise from 104.1 million in 1979 to 122.0 million by
1990, a net increase of 17.9 million jobs. In the hightrend high-employment model (version I), 26.5 million
new jobs will be added to the 1979 level, for total em­
ployment of 130.7 million in 1990. In the high-trend
low-employment model (version II), employment would
reach 124.0 million by 1990.
The rates of job increase between 1979 and 1990 in
the low-trend and high-trend II versions (1.4 and 1.6
percent a year, respectively) represent a slowdown over
the previous two decades, while the high-trend I rate of
2.1 percent represents a somewhat faster pace.

fall from 7.1 percent in 1980 to 7.0 percent by 1985 and
6.0 percent by 1990. The more optimistic high-trend as­
sumptions are for a 5.5-percent unemployment rate in
1985 and 4.0 percent in 1990 in version I, and 6.0 per­
cent in 1985 and 4.5 percent in 1990 in version II.
Gross national product. Gross national product ( g n p ) is
projected to expand 2.4 percent annually between 1979
and 1990 in the low-trend version, and 3.8 percent in
the high-trend versions. The low-trend estimate roughly
corresponds to the experience o f the 1973-79 period,
when real GNP increased at an average rate o f 2.8 per­
cent a year. Assumptions underlying the high-trend
projections more closely resemble the growth path of an
earlier period, 1955-68, during which the economy was
expanding at a 3.7-percent annual pace.
Taxes. In all cases, reductions in both personal income
taxes and the effective corporate tax rate are assumed to
take place throughout the decade. The high-growth al­
ternatives, in particular, incorporate an assumption of a
vigorously pursued policy of investment incentives.

Characteristics of the 1990 economy
Labor force. The civilian labor force is expected to grow
1.6 percent a year between 1979 and 1990 in the lowtrend and high-trend II models, and 2.0 percent a year
in the high-trend I model. Both rates are considerably
smaller than the 2.7 percent average annual rate of ex­
pansion posted during 1975-79. The slowdown should
occur as the last of the baby-boom generation enter the
labor force.
Under both labor force scenarios, two-thirds of the
growth is provided by women. The first assumes that
the proportion of women age 20 to 44 in the labor force
will rise at an increasing rate until 1983; participation
rates of men in most age groups are expected to decline,
although not as fast as they did during the 1970’s. The
second scenario assumes even faster growth for wom­
en’s participation rates, and a reversal of the decline in
men’s rates:

Productivity. The productivity slowdown which charac­
terized the 1970’s is assumed to at least stabilize during
the 1980’s, as some of the contributory factors are mini­
mized or even reversed. The rate of productivity growth
in the private sector declined from 3.0 percent a year
during 1955-68 to 2.3 .percent between 1968 and 1973
and 0.9 percent between 1973 and 1980. Among the
reasons cited for this drop are an influx of inexperienced
labor force entrants, energy price shocks, investment in
environmental protection and energy conservation rath­
er than in production, and less per-employee capital ac­
cumulation in general. In the coming decade, however,
the baby-boom generation will be in the prime working
age groups, creating a proportionately more experienced
labor force. Investment in capital goods is projected to
be stimulated by specific government policies, and
businesses are expected to become more adept at
responding to changes in energy resources. As a result,
annual labor productivity growth in the private sector is
projected to be 0.9 percent during 1980-85 and 1.9 per­
cent during 1985-90 in the low-trend forecast, 1.4 per­
cent and 2.6 percent in the high-trend I version, and 2.2
percent and 3.1 percent in the high-trend II model.

_________ Projected_________

Low labor
High labor
force
force
Actual______scenario_____ scenario

1975 1979 1985 1990 1985 1990
Labor force
(in m illion s)____
Men ................
Women ...........

92.6
55.6
37.0

102.9
59.5
43.4

Participation rate . .
Men ................
W o m e n ...........

61.2
77.9
46.3

63.7
77.9
51.0

115.0 122.4 118.3 128.1
63.6 65.9 64.8 68.2
51.4 56.5 53.4 59.9
66.5
77.7
56.5

67.9
77.2
59.6

68.4
79.2
58.7

71.1
79.9
63.2

Ernergy assumptions
Higher prices and uncertain supply for oil and natu­
ral gas, both domestic and foreign, have begun to force
both conservation and a shift to other energy sources.
During the 1980’s, these trends are projected to intensi­
fy. Domestic production of crude oil and natural gas
and refined petroleum products is expected to remain
virtually unchanged or decline slightly throughout the

Unemployment rate. Somewhat offsetting the effects of
slower labor force growth on job creation are assump­
tions about unemployment. The unemployment rate is
assumed to decline following the 1980 recession and
then level off within a range of possible full employment
levels. In the low-trend forecast, the rate is assumed to




21

decade, while oil imports are assumed to be cut back
drastically. In 1977, imports of crude oil accounted for
almost one-third of total U.S. supply. That ratio has begun to turn down somewhat, and is expected to contin­
ue to decline to 21.5 percent by 1990 in the low-trend
version, or to between 24.2 and 24.5 percent in the
high-trend models.
To the degree possible, the energy assumptions are
based on the “1979 Annual Report to the Congress” of
the U.S. Department of Energy.1(See table 1.) The midprice case of the department was chosen as the basis for
the BLS projections. This case assumes that crude oil
nominal prices will rise from $31.37 a barrel in 1979 to
$51.14 in 1985, and to $81.33 in 1990. The depart­
ment’s projected rates of growth for domestic output
and imports under these price conditions were applied
to bl§ data to derive the 1985 and 1990 levels of do­
mestic production of various types of energy and the
level of oil imports.
Coal output is projected to boom as electric utilities
and other industrial users substitute it for scarcer, more
expensive oil in their production processes. This return
to coal as an important energy source has already had
an impact on the industry—coal production increased
20.3 percent in 1979 and 8.3 percent in 1980; employ­
ment jumped 25.6 percent in 1979 to a 25-year high of
265,000 jobs and held close to that level in 1980. Coal
output in the low-trend projection is estimated to sus­
tain an 8.1 percent yearly growth, at least through
1985, after which the rate is expected to taper to 3.6
percent annually during 1985-90. In the high-trend ver­
sions, coal production will increase 9.1 to 9.4 percent a
year during 1979-85, and 4.5 to 4.7 percent annually
thereafter.
The vigorous rates of growth projected for coal pro­
duction result not only from the assumption of strong
domestic demand, but from substantial foreign demand
as well. Exports of coal are expected to expand 5.7 per­
cent annually between 1977 and 1990 in the low-trend
Tab!© 1. U.S. @n@Piy sypplly by sour©©, aetyal and
projected, GGlostQd y©ar©, 1965-90
^re je c te d

Aetuai

item
le s s
Total domestic energy supply:
Quadrillion BTU par year . . . ' ...............
Coal:
Quadrillion BTU par y s a r ......................
Parcant of total supply .........................
Domestic oil and gas:
Quadrillion BTU par y s a r ......................
Parcsnt of total supply ......... ...............
Nat oil and gas imports:
Quadrillion BTU par y e a r ......................
Peroant of total supply .........................
Nuclear:
Quadrillion BTU par year ......................
Percent of total supply .........................

1073

1®73

107®

1835

1880

53.7

75.0

78.4

79.3

81.6

89.1

13.4
25.0

14.4
19.2

15.0
19.1

17.4
21.9

25.0
30.6

29.3
32.9

34.2
63.7

44.3
59.1

40.2
51.3

39.6
49.9

36.9
45.2

38.3
43.0

5.4
10.1

14.0
18.7
%
.9
1.2

17.6
22.4

17.7
22.3

12.9
15.8

12.5
14.0

3.0
3.8

2.8
3.5

5.6
6.9

8.2
9.2

S ource : U.S. Dspartmsnt of Energy, Energy Information Administration.




22

version, and 9.9 to 10.8 percent a year in the high-trend
versions.
Consumption of electricity'will rise during the 1980’s
as an alternative energy source for both home heating
and industrial production. Output is projected to grow
3.3 percent a year between 1979 and 1990 in the lowtrend version, and 4.4 percent a year in both high-trend
scenarios. Coal is expected to be an increasingly impor­
tant input in the production of electricity, while nuclear
power sources are assumed to expand only slightly over
the next decade and account for a very small fraction of
total electricity production.
Final demand teernds

Personal consumption
expenditures accounted for nearly two-thirds of total
gross national product in 1979, and while these outlays
are projected to grow somewhat more slowly than total
GNP over the next decade, they will still be by far its
largest component.
Among consumption categories, expenditures for
nondurable items, such as food and household supplies,
are expected to continue to grow more slowly than out­
lays for durable goods and services. This long-term
trend reflects the tendency of consumers to spend less
of their budget on necessary staples and shift more dis­
cretionary income to higher-priced durable goods or to
recreation and other services as disposable incomes rise.
Food and tobacco, which together accounted for al­
most 29 percent of the personal consumption budget in
1955, are projected to represent only 17 to 19 percent
in 1990. Tobacco expenditures, in particular, are
expected to have the second-fastest rate of decline of all
personal consumption categories. (The most rapid drop
is projected for gasoline and oil purchases.)
One of the fastest-growing components of personal
expenditures projected is medical care services. This
item accounted for 8.3 percent of personal consumption
expenditures in 1972 and 8.7 percent in 1979, but is
expected to represent more than 10 percent of such con­
sumption in 1990. One of the main causes for rapid
projected growth of real medical care expenditures will
be an aging population. In 1979, the number of persons
age 65 or older was 24.7 million, or 11.2 percent of the
total population. In 1990, 29.8 million people, or 12.2
percent of the total, will be in this age group.2
Other categories of personal consumption expendi­
tures projected to rise rapidly include amusements and
recreation services, and airline transportation. Expendi­
tures for recreation have been steadily growing as a
share of all personal consumption expenditures, from
about 5.7 percent in 1955 to 6.3 percent in 1968 and
7.9 percent in 1979. In 1990, they are projected to ac­
count for between 8.7 and 9.7 percent of all personal
consumption expenditures. Airline transportation is
P e r s o n a l c o n s u m p tio n d o m i n a n t

expected to be the second-fastest growing component.
Outlays for consumer durables are projected to in­
crease as a percentage of total personal consumption ex­
penditures, particularly for household furnishings; home
electronic equipment such as radios, televisions, video
recorders, and personal computers; and motor vehicles.
Under the low-trend version, most of the gains will oc­
cur in the second half of the decade, while the hightrend models assume the recovery from the 1980 reces­
sion will be swifter and purchases of consumer durables
will rise rapidly throughout the decade.

however, the rate of new household formation was ac­
celerating, reflecting both the maturing of the babyboom generation and a trend toward more single-person
households. The demand for homeownership that was
pent up during the recession years is projected to spur
residential investment expenditures during the first half
of the 1980’s; growth is estimated at 2.2 percent a year
between 1979 and 1985 in the low-trend model and 4.5
to 4.8 percent in the high-trend models. After 1985,
however, the rate of new household formation is
expected to decline, and residential investment growth
drops to 1.0 percent annually in the low-trend version
and 3.2 to 3.5 percent in the high-trend scenarios.

Investment growth the strongest. Investment, currently
about 15 percent of final demand, is projected to show
significantly more growth than the 0.6-percent annual
rate posted between 1973 and 1979, especially in the
second half of the next decade. The largest category of
investment, producers’ durable equipment, rises 5.0 per­
cent annually in the low-trend version during the latter
years of the 1980’s, in line with the long-term historical
rate of growth; the high-trend versions predict an
8.1-percent annual expansion over the same period. The
rapid gain in the high-trend models reflects the better
business conditions and strong tax incentive programs
assumed in these versions.
A list of the specific types of equipment for which de­
mand is projected to be greatest reflects the full fruition
of the “age of electronics.” Leading the advance will be
purchases of computers and peripheral equipment. Rap­
idly growing investment demand is also expected for
optical equipment, typewriters and other office equip­
ment, radio and communication equipment, and scienti­
fic and controlling instruments. These products are all
characterized by or contribute to rapid advances in
technology. As older machines or production processes
become less efficient or even obsolete, businesses are
expected to buy more of these high-technology items in
relation to other capital goods to remain competitive.
Equipment for which slow growth in investment de­
mand is expected includes special industry machinery;
engines, turbines, and generators; and office furniture.
Business investment in new plants is projected to
recover more slowly from the 1980 recession than in­
vestment in equipment, due to the longer lead-times re­
quired. After 1985, construction of new plants and
other business structures is expected to rebound at a
rate of growth in line with the long-term, pre-recession
rate of 4.7 percent.
Projections of residential investment show a very dif­
ferent pattern than those for other types of investment.
This sector was the most severely hit by the 1975 and
1980 recessions—new housing starts plummeted from a*
decade-high 2.4 million in 1972 to 1.3 million in 1980;
expenditures for residential investment declined by 0.9
percent a year during 1973-79. Over the same period,



Foreign trade will grow rapidly. Exports and imports
have been rising over time as a share of GNP, reflecting
the growing economic interdependence of the United
States and the rest of the world. This trend is projected
to continue into the next decade in all scenarios. In
1955, exports accounted for 4.7 percent of final de­
mand; by 1979 that share had risen to 9.9 percent, and
is expected to climb to between 11.5 and 12.9 percent in
1990. Imports represented 3.6 percent of GNP in 1955,
7.4 percent in 1979, and are projected to account for
9.1 to 9.7 percent in 1990.
A wide variety of products is exported from the
United States each year. Chief among them in the past
have been food and feed grains, and other agricultural
products; motor vehicles and parts; aircraft; chemicals;
and construction, mining, and oilfield machinery. These
goods are projected to continue to account for a sizable
share of exports in the coming years, but they are
expected to be joined by computers, electronic compo­
nents, and coal as important export goods. Plastic prod­
ucts exports are expected to grow much faster than the
average for all exports, but not as rapidly as in the past.
As the import share of GNP rises, raw materials pur­
chases are becoming less significant compared to im­
ports of finished capital and consumer goods, and this
trend is expected to continue. Imports of crude petro­
leum are assumed to decline drastically, from 31 per­
cent of the total supply of oil and natural gas in 1977
to between 21.5 and 24.5 percent by 1990.
The largest share of imported merchandise is
accounted for by motor vehicles and parts— 13.5 per­
cent in 1977. As a percentage of the total value of out­
put of all cars, trucks, buses,' vans, and spare parts
purchased in the United States, imports grew from less
than 2 percent in 1963 to 12.5 percent by 1977 and to
13.8 percent in 1979. Further gains for imported motor
vehicles are projected as the domestic auto industry
struggles to recover from the devastating 1980 reces­
sion. The value of the import share is projected to top
15 percent in 1985 in all three scenarios. After that
point, however, it declines somewhat to about 14.4 per­

23

25.1 million young adults between 18 and 24, compared
with 46.9 million and 29.3 million in 1979.4
The only area of State and local spending expected to
show any increase is the health field. It is assumed that
purchases of goods and services for public health will
just about keep pace with the rate of growth of the
economy as a whole.

cent by 1990. The downturn is expected to occur, as
American cars begin to compete effectively with gas­
economizing imports, and more foreign automakers set
up factories in the United States.
Motorcycle and bicycle manufacturing is the industry
with the largest proportion of imports; it is expected to
rank first during the next decade as well, with imports
holding an almost steady 65-percent share. Radio and
television imports are projected to continue to dominate
the output of that industry, rising from 39 percent of
total output in 1977 to about 49 percent in 1990 in the
low-trend forecast, and to about 46 percent in the hightrend models. Among other industries with large vol­
umes of imports, rising import shares are projected for
steel and primary nonferrous metals; steady or declining
shares are expected for imports of apparel, leather prod­
ucts (including footwear), electronic components, and
paper products.

Industry output
The projections of final demand by industry were
multiplied by an input-output table to yield projections
of the domestic output required by each industry to
meet that final demand. The table was based on the
1972 input-output matrix published by the Department
of Commerce,5 with several of the original coefficients
modified to reflect 1977 Commerce Department data or
other information on recent trends. Among the indus­
tries for which special studies or assumptions were
made are the metals sectors, textiles, motor vehicles, the
service sectors, and the energy industries.

Government share dipping. Government purchases3 as a
whole are projected to grow somewhat more slowly
than total GNP in the coming decade, but wide variation
is assumed for different functions within the public sec­
tor. For example, emphasis at the Federal level is
expected to swing back to national defense. In past
years, defense purchases have been declining in real
terms as a proportion of GNP. Real outlays for defense
dropped 7.3 percent annually between 1968 and 1973 as
the Vietnam war drew to a close, and then contracted
further, by an average of 0.3 percent each year through
1979. Sharp increases in defense spending are expected
for the 1980’s, particularly during the first half. Pur­
chases are projected to grow 5.3 to 5.7 percent a year
between 1979 and 1985, rising 1.5 to 2.1 percent annu­
ally thereafter.
All of the extra real defense expenditures are assumed
to be for materiel; the size of the armed forces is pro­
jected to remain unchanged at 2.1 million. Among the
industries particularly affected by the projected defense
buildup are ordnance (which includes tanks), guided
missiles, aircraft, ship and boat building and repair, and
radio and other communication equipment.
In contrast, the nondefense portion of Federal pur­
chases of goods and services is expected to show no
growth over the next decade. As a share of total final
demand, Federal nondefense purchases decline from 2.3
percent of GNP in 1979 to 1.9 percent by 1990 in the
low-trend version, 1.7 percent in high-trend version I,
and 1.5 percent in high-trend version II.
Expenditures for goods and services by State and lo­
cal governments, which accounted for 12.1 percent of
GNP in 1979, will show only minimal growth during the
1980’s. Education expenditures are actually projected to
decline between 1985 and 1990, as the school- and col­
lege-age population shrinks. In the latter year, there will
be only about 45.3 million children age 5 to 17 and




Food production slows. As real incomes rise, purchases

of food for home consumption tend to level off. Food
purchases are projected to grow only slightly faster
than the population, and considerably more slowly than
purchases of other commodities. This slowdown will
affect almost all of the food industries, and indirectly,
the agricultural industries. The only food industries
expected to post output gains at least equal to total
GNP growth are those producing alcoholic beverages
and soft drinks. Domestic output of alcoholic bever­
ages, including beer and wine, is assumed to keep pace
with rising incomes, while growth in the soft drink in­
dustry will arise from higher levels of exports.
Little growth in other nondurable goods industries. Sever­

al other nondurable manufacturing industries, such as
tobacco manufacturing, paper products, cleaning prepa­
rations, and leather products, are also expected to ex­
hibit only moderate output growth over the next
decade. The output of the refined petroleum products
industry is assumed to actually decline as demand
shrinks dramatically. Partly as a result of the petroleum
cutback, output of the nondurable goods sector will de­
cline steadily as a share of total output. (See table 2.)
Although the output of the nondurable goods manu­
facturing sector is projected to show only moderate
overall growth, several component industries are
expected to post faster-than-average gains. These in­
clude the chemical products, drugs, apparel, and print­
ing and publishing industries.
Growth strong fo r durable goods. The durable goods
portion of manufacturing, unlike nondurables, is pro­
jected to grow faster than the all-industries average. Be­
tween 1979 and 1990, production is expected to expand
24

T a fe l® 2 .

@ ro @ © p r o d y e t © r lg S m a tlin ig 1 b y m a j o r s ® e t ® r , a e t y a S a n d p r o j e c t e d , s ® S ® c t® d y e a r s , U S S S - i©
ilU io n s o f 1S72 dolla rs
A ctual

P re jssted

Ind u stry e se te r
le s s
10SS

1889

1080

1070
Low -trend

Total p riv a te ............................................................
Agriculture ..........................................................................
N cnagriculture......................................................................
Mining ..........................................................................
C onstruction................................................................
Manufacturing ............................................................
Durable goods .......................................................
Nondurable g o o d s ..................................................
Transportation, communications, and public
utilities ................................................................... ..
Transportation .......................................................
C om m unications....................................................
Public utilities .........................................................
Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................
Wholesale ..............................................................
R e ta il........................................................................
Finance, insurance, and /e a l estate ......................
Other services2 .........................................................
Government enterprises ..........................................
Rest of world and statistical discrepancy ............

H igh-trend 1

H igh-trend 1
1

Lew -trend

High-trend 1

H igh-trend 1
1

629.5
27.8
601.7
13.3
45.5
171.2
100.9
70.3

951.9
29.5
922.4
18.2
55.8
277.2
170.3
108.8

1,329.1
34.9
1,294.2
21.0
58.3
368.0
223.5
144.5

1,490.3
36.5
1,453.8
25.2
70.8
411.6
251.7
159.9

1,621.7
42.0
1,579.7
28.9
75.5
448.4
277.9
170.5

1,613.7
42.1
1,571.6
26.6
75.5
444.2
274.7
169.5

1,732.7
37.6
1,695.1
27.1
76.3
474.6
294.6
180.0

2,002.9
47.0
1,955.9
30.1
87.1
554.3
354.7
199.6

2,004.7
47.3
1,957.4
29.7
88.0
550.9
350.6
200.3

55.4
29.9
11.5
14.0
115.4
42.0
73.4
93.5
83.6
11.8
7.9

92.6
43.4
23.8
25.3
173.6
70.6
103.0
152.9
127.2
16.8
8.1

141.1
55.9
50.3
34.8
248.1
103.4
144.8
227.5
183.3
21.0
25.9

175.7
63.3
73.0
39.4
271.8
114.4
157.4
245.8
205.2
25.1
22.6

187.3
67.9
77.6
41.8
298.1
124.2
171.9
268.9
220.1
26.7
31.8

186.3
67.5
77.2
41.6
294.4
123.5
170.9
266.9
218.9
26.6
32.2

218.7
73.7
99.5
45.5
316.0
132.6
183.4
284.9
239.0
28.5
30.0

244.8
83.8
110.4
50.6
365.0
154.8
210.2
324.7
276.9
31.9
41.1

244.0
83.3
109.8
50.9
366.6
154.6
212.0
329.4
278.1
32.1
38.6

A verage annual rate o f change
A ctual
1070-ms
10S0WSS

Low -trend
Total p riv a te ...........................................................
Agriculture ..........................................................................
N cnagriculture.....................................................................
Mining ..........................................................................
C onstruction................................................................
Manufacturing ...........................................................
Durable goods ........................... ...........................
Nondurable g o o d s ..................................................
Transportation, communications, and public
utilities .....................................................................
Transportation ......................................................
Com m unications....................................................
Public utilities ...................... ..................................
Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................
Wholesale ..............................................................
R e ta il........................................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ......................
Other services2 .........................................................
Government enterprises ..........................................
Rest of world and statistical discrepancy .............

H igh-trend I

H igh-trend II

Low -trend

H igh-trend 1

H igh-trend 1
1

4.2
.6
4.4
3.2
2.1
4.9
5.4
4.3

3.4
1.7
3.4
1.4
.4
2.9
2.8
3.1

1.9
.7
2.0
3.1
3.3
1.9
2.0
1.7

3.4
3.1
3.4
4.2
4.4
3.3
3.7
2.8

3.3
3.2
3.3
4.0
4.4
3.2
3.5
2.7

3.1
.6
3.1
1.5
1.5
2.9
3.2
2.4

4.3
2.3
4.4
2.3
2.9
4.3
5.0
3.2

4.4
2.4
4.5
2.2
3.1
4.4
5.0
3.4

5.3
3.8
7.5
6.1
4.2
5.3
3.4
4.5
4.3
3.6
.3

4.3
2.6
7.8
3.2
3.6
3.9
3.5
4.1
3.7
2.3
12.3

3.7
2.1
6.4
2.1
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.9
3.0
-2 .2

4.8
3.3
7.5
3.1
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.7
3.1
4.1
3.5

4.7
3.2
7.4
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.7
3.0
4.0
3.7

4.5
3.1
6.4
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.1
2.6
4.8

5.5
4.3
7.3
3.9
4.3
4.5
4.1
4.0
4.7
3.6
5.3

5.5
4.3
7.3
4.1
4.5
4.6
4.4
4.3
4.9
3.8
3.7

2 Includes private households.

1Gross product originating represents the value added by an industry after costs of materials
and secondary products made in other industries have been subtracted from total output.

2.5 percent a year in the low-trend version, compared to
2.4 percent for total private-sector output. Correspond­
ing figures for the high-trend version are 4.2 to 4.3 per­
cent for durable goods versus 3.8 percent for the total.
Spurring the rapid increase in durable goods output are
the investment, defense, and personal consumption as­
sumptions discussed previously.
Among specific industries in the durable manufactur­
ing sector projected to enjoy substantial output growth
are computers; optical equipment; construction, mining,
and oilfield machinery; typewriters and other office ma­
chines; electronic components; material- handling equip­
ment; photographic equipment; and medical and dental
instruments.
The computer industry, in fact, is expected to lead all
industries studied in terms of output increase. As is well
known, output of computer equipment has burgeoned




in s - g o

1£38-71

25

in the past few decades; its 11.6-percent annual rate of
increase between 1958 and 1979 surpassed that off all
other industries studied. Growth came in response to
greater demand for information processing as well as
from expanding applications of computer technology to
such fields as biotechnology and industrial robots. New
uses and markets for computer technology will continue
to spur output in the coming decade, at projected rates
of increase ranging from 7.6 to 10.1 percent a year.
In
1959, service industries accounted for 13.3 percent of
total private output; in 1979 the share was 13.8 percent.
Service industries are expected to hold this steady share
of output throughout the 1980’s in all three scenarios.
Within the service sector, the most rapid output
growth is projected for the amusement and recreation
S e r v ic e s o u tp u t g r o w th in lin e w ith r e s t o f e c o n o m y .

expected to expand more rapidly than that of other re­
tail businesses.
Output of the mining sector is projected to keep pace
with total private output after decades of slower-thanaverage growth. The rapid increase projected for coal
production is expected to outweigh the minimal growth
assumed for crude oil production and the absolute de­
clines anticipated in copper mining and nonferrous ores
mining. In addition to coal, above-average domestic
output gains are also projected for iron ores and chemi­
cal mining.
Table 3 summarizes the low-path industry output
forecast, showing the most- and least-rapidly growing
or declining industries for 1979-90. In the high-trend
versions (which assume more purchases ' of durable
equipment), transportation services, amusement and
recreation services, electronic components, and chemical
mining drop off the list of the 10 fastest-growing indus­
tries (but remain within the top 20), and are replaced
by those manufacturing radios and televisions, typewrit­
ers and other office equipment, material handling equip­
ment, and telephone and telegraph apparatus.

industry and the medical industries. Amusement and
recreation services expanded by about 4.1 percent annu­
ally between 1958 and 1979. The same pace is expected
for the 1979-90 period in the low-trend version, while
the high-trend models project average annual growth of
5.4 to 5.6 percent. For the medical industries, an in­
crease in output of doctors’ and dentists’ services is
expected to average 3.3 to 4.7 percent a year between
1979 and 1990; output of hospitals is projected to ex­
pand by 3.6 to 5.1 percent; and annual output growth
of other medical services is projected to be in the 3.0to 5.0=percent range. These average rates are all higher
than the 2.4- to 3.8-percent range forecast for output of
the total private economy during 1979-90.
Construction pattern mixed. In all scenarios, the con­
struction sector grows faster than the all-industries av­
erage between 1979 and 1985, but more slowly between
1985 and 1990. In the first half of the decade, rising res­
idential construction is projected to stimulate this in­
dustry, but in the second half, a dropoff in new home
construction is expected to more than offset the begin­
nings of a rebound in business construction of factories,
offices, and public utilities. Shrinking government out­
lays for school and road construction are also expected
to dampen the output growth of this sector.

Industry employment .
Employment projections at the industry level are
derived from the projections of output by industry, but
the two are far from strictly parallel. The differences
stem from the varying estimates of labor productivity
by industry and of expected changes in the average
workweek. Thus, although output in the low-trend ver­
sion is projected to decline in only 4 of the 150 indus­
tries studied, employment drops are expected for 33
industries as a result of expected productivity growth in
the private economy. In high-trend version I, only two
industries experience output declines, but 24 show em­
ployment reductions. For the high-trend II case, output
drops in two industries but employment falls in 30. (See
table 4.)
The projected upturn in productivity is somewhat off­
set by a continued decline in the average workweek.
Average weekly hours in the private sector dropped
from 39.9 in 1959 to 38.3 in 1969, and further, to 36.6,
in 1979. By 1990, hours paid are projected to average
35.0 a week in the low-trend model and 35.1 in the
high-trend models.
While employment is expected to grow more slowly
than in the recent past, at least in the low-trend version
and high-trend II (which are based on a smaller labor
force than high-trend I), the distribution of employment
among major industry sectors in all versions will con­
tinue to change largely in line with past trends. (See ta­
bles 5 and 6.)

Variations expected in other industry sectors. Trade,
-which represented 18.7 percent of total private-sector
output in 1979, is projected to hold about the same
share in 1990. Both the wholesale and retail portions
will grow at about the same pace, although within retail
trade, output of eating and drinking establishments is

T a b !® 3 .
L o w - tre n d p r o je c te d o u t p u t c h a n g e s f o r
© e le c te d I n d u s t r ie s , 1 ® 7 ® -® 0
in du stry

A verage annual rate
e f o u tp ut change
(in p ercent)

All private in du strie s...................................................................

2.4

Fastest-growing:
Computers and peripheral equipment ........................................
Communications, except radio and te le visio n ...........................
. Coal m in in g .......................................................................................
Radio and television b roadcasting...............................................
Transportation services ................................................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment ............................................
Amusement and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................................
Electronic com ponents...................................................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ........................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield m a ch ine ry.........................

7.6
6.4
6.0
5.7
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8

Slowest-growing or declining:
Petroleum refining and related products ...................................
Copper ore m in in g ..........................................................................
Private households ........................................................................
Nonferrous metal ores m in in g ......................................................
Logging ............................................................................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ..............................................................
Railroad e q u ip m e n t........................................................................
Gas u tilitie s .......................................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ................................................................

- 1 .6
- .3
-.3
-.3
.0
.0
.1
.5
.5




Services continue to pace growth. The fastest-growing
employment sector is projected to be services, as it has

26

Table 4.

Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90

[In thousands]

A
ctual

Projected
Low-trend.

H
igh-trend 1

H
igh-trend I
I
A
verage
annual
1980
rate of
change,
1979-90

1959

19S9

1979

1990

A
verage
annual
rate of
change,
1979-90

Agriculture:
Dairy and poultry p ro d u c ts ..........................................
Meat and livestock p ro d u cts........................................
Cotton .............................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u cts..........................................

1,551
979
565
960
1,436

814
756
178
635
1,111

511
528
142
639
995

354
452
121
591
813

- 3 .3
- 1 .4
- 1 .4
-.7
- 1 .8

395
508
136
674
920

- 2 .3
-.4
-.3
.5
-.7

411
524
135
661
903

- 2 .0
-.1
- .5
.3
- .9

Mining:
Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ...................................
Copper ore m in in g .......................................................
Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper . . . .
Coal m in in g ......................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ..............................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying.........................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ......................

33
23
31
201
200
105
19

30
34
25
138
157
99
18

30
33
39
265
211
103
25

34
34
40
411
311
103
31

1.3
.4
.3
4.1
3.6
.1
2.1

38
37
42
472
325
109
33

2.2
1.2
.8
5.4
4.0
.5
2.8

33
36
40
412
307
100
32

1.0
.8
.3
4.1
3.5
- .3
2.1

Construction:
Maintenance and repair co n stru ctio n .........................
New construction............................................................

662
3,163

792
3,594

1,292
4,605

1,423
5,497

.9
1.6

1,532
5,977

1.6
2.4

1,460
5,643

1.1
1.9

Manufacturing:
Durable goods:
Ordnance ...................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles . .
L og g ing ........................................................................
Sawmills and planing mills .....................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood products . . .
Wooden containers ..................................................
Household furniture ..................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household ............
Glass ..........................................................................
Cement and concrete p ro d u c ts ..............................

50
94
143
305
261
43
259
124
153
209

175
107
138
230
310
36
316
153
188
228

75
81
148
237
386
25
331
176
205
254

102
70
113
222
344
20
379
180
239
253

2.8
- 1 .3
- 2 .4
-.6
- 1 .0
- 1 .6
1.2
.2
1.4

-.0

111
72
120
231
370
22
408
214
252
267

3.7
- .9
-1 .8
- .2
- .4
- 1 .0
1.9
1.8
1.9
.5

98
77
108
215
374
22
390
194
242
261

2.5
- .5
- 2 .8
- .9
-.3
- 1 .3
1.5
.9
1.5
.2

Structural clay p ro d u c ts ..........................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts...................................
Other stone and clay products ..............................
Blast furnaces and basic steel p ro d u cts...............
Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ....................
Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts ....................
Primary aluminum and aluminum p ro d u c ts ..........
Primary nonferrous metals and metal products . .
Metal containers .......................................................
Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ............

78
49
125
588
269
137
111
78
75
71

64
45
140
644
312
160
153
93
87
76

52
51
164
569
324
159
169
90
81
76

44
57
171
583
375
163
173
111
91
100

- 1 .5
1.1
.4
.2
1.4
.3
.3
2.0
1.1
2.6

45
60
186
586
387
170
181
114
99
105

- 1 .2
1.5
1.2
.3
1.6
.7
.6
2.2
1.9
3.0

43
55
181
583
377
165
170
108
95
103

- 1 .7
.7
.9
.2
1.4
.3
.0
1.7
1.4
2.8

Fabricated structural metal p ro d u c ts ....................
Screw machine products ........................................
Metal stampings .......................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ..........
Other fabricated metal products ...........................
Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to rs .........................
Farm m achinery.........................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery . . . .
Material handling e q u ip m e n t...................................
Metalworking m a ch ine ry..........................................

344
88
189
135
231
90
128
162
65
251

440
114
255
165
315
112
141
202
95
347

538
117
243
186
378
145
183
282
113
379

583
140
266
226
443
149
217
369
148
411

.7
1.6
.8
1.8
1.5
.3
1.6
2.4
2.5
.7

640
151
290
240
472
175
239
474
183
547

1.6
2.4
1.6
2.4
2.0
1.7
2.5
4.8
4.5
3.4

601
143
277
227
461
160
224
369
150
424

1.0
1.9
1.2
1.8
1.8
.9
1.9
2.4
2.6
1.0

Special industry m a ch in e ry.....................................
General industrial m a ch ine ry...................................
Other nonelectrical m achinery................................
Computers and peripheral equipment .................
Typewriters and other office e q u ip m e n t...............
Service industry machines .....................................
Electric transmission equipment ...........................
Electrical industrial a p p a ra tu s ................................
Household appliances .............................................
Electric lighting and wiring .....................................

164
221
166
111
28
97
157
176
157
134

206
291
246
224
52
147
207
223
187
205

205
329
309
350
48
188
219
251
180
226

227
393
344
552
77
199
236
307
192
309

1.0
1.6
1.0
4.2
4.5
.6
.7
1.9
.6
2.9

234
430
381
614
89
226
277
355
198
335

1.2
2.5
1.9
5.2
5.8
1.7
2.2
3.2
.9
3.7

231
390
373
555
73
208
247
315
190
324

1.1
1.6
1.7
4.3
3.8
.9
1.1
2.1
.5
3.3

Radio and television receiving sets ......................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus ....................
Radio and communication e quipm ent....................
Electronic co m p on e n ts.............................................
Other electrical machinery and e q u ip m e n t..........
Motor ve h ic le s ............................................................
A ir c r a ft........................................................................
Ship and boat building and repair .........................
Railroad equipment ..................................................
Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a r t s ...........................

114
105
252
213
111
696
722
151
41
9

156
146
409
394
125
912
805
193
51
14

115
169
357
525
180
996
632
228
74
20

98
201
424
666
174
921
768
271
65
24

- 1 .4
1.6
1.6
2.2
-.3
-.7
1.8
1.6
- 1 .0
1.8

120
231
433
669
211
1,049
839
305
81
30

.5
2.9
1.8
2.2
1.5
.5
2.6
2.7
.8
4.0

116
229
418
669
176
940
779
279
81
32

.0
2.8
1.5
2.2
- .2
-.5
1.9
1.9
.8
4.4

Other transportation equ ip m en t..............................

23

89

105

120

1.2

147

3.1

121

1.3

Industry




27

1990

Average
annual
rate of
change,
1979-90

Tab!© 4.

Continued— Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 19§©-®0

[In thousands]
A ctual

P rojected
Low -trend

Industry

H igh-trend 1

A verage
annual
rate o f
change,
1979-80

H igh-trend II

A verage
annual
rate o f
change,
1979-90

A verage
annual
rate o f
change,
1079-90

1959

1SS0

1079

1990

Scientific and controlling in stru m en ts....................
Medical and dental instrum ents..............................
Optical and ophthalmic e quipm ent.........................
Photographic equipment and supplies .................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices . . .
Jewelry and silve rw are .............................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s ...............
Other manufactured p ro d u c ts ................................

166
45
85
69
30
67
116
229

195
82
75
111
35
78
149
233

218
141
82
134
28
93
145
244

252
189
92
144
25
91
164
263

1.4
2.7
1.1
.7
- .7
-.2
1.2
.7

298
224
102
165
28
92
175
269

2.8
4.3
2.0
1.9
.3
-.1
1.8
.9

246
183
97
152
25
91
175
262

1.1
2.4
1.5
1.2
- .9
-.2
1.7
.6

Nondurable goods:
Meat p ro d u c ts ............................................................
Dairy p ro d u c ts ............................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ........................................
Grain mill products _____ _
..
Bakery products .......................................................
Sugar ..........................................................................
Confectionery products ..........................................
Alcoholic bevera g es..................................................
Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s ........................................
Other food p ro d u cts..................................................

324
326
249
139
313
38
79
107
111
144

344
260
291
137
286
36
87
97
142
151

364
189
308
146
240
30
79
88
151
163

379
158
269
154204
33
70
62
156
147

.4
- 1 .6
- .5
5
- 1 .5
1.1
- 1 .0
-3.1
.3
-.9

403
168
307
165
217
34
75
64
166
157

.9
- 1 .0
.0
1.2
- .9
1.4
-.5
-2 .7
.9
-.3

372
147
323
151
209
33
73
65
152
156

.2
- 2 .2
.5
.3
- 1 .2
1.0
-.7
- 2 .7
.1
-.4

Tobacco m anufactures.............................................
Fabric, yam, and thread mills ................................
Floor covering mills ..................................................
Other textile mill p ro d u cts........................................
Hosiery and knit g o o d s ............................................
A p p a re l........................................................................
Other fabricated textile p ro d u c ts ...........................
Paper products .........................................................
Paperboard containers and b o x e s .........................
Newspaper printing and publishing ......................

95
619
39
74
221
1,100
143
415
175
328

83
616
58
82
251
1,244
182
483
231
376

70
532
60
70
229
1,132
200
493
215
435

64
534
62
74
238
1,190
233
546
221
508

- .7
.0
.3
.6
.4
.5
1.4
.9
.3
1.4

67
545
68
82
261
1,319
251
548
233
549

-.3
.2
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.4
2.1
1.0
.8
2.1

67
529
64
73
232
1,205
236
545
230
526

-.4
-.1
.6
.4
.1
.6
1.5
.9
.6
1.7

Periodical and book printing and publishing . . . .
Other printing and publishing...................................
Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals ..........
Agricultural chemicals .............................................
Other chemical products ........................................
Plastic materials and synthetic r u b b e r ..................
Synthetic fibers .........................................................
Drugs ..........................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations ...........................
Paints and allied p ro d u cts........................................

156
446
260
54
82
81
79
106
89
62

210
550
296
65
124
108
132
143
123
72

230
641
323
70
100
101
118
194
140
69

303
664
417
73
113
97
93
228
145
71

2.5
.3
2.4
.5
1.2
-.3
-2 .1
1.5
.4
.3

329
717
426
75
118
107
101
247
162
74

3.3
1.0
2.6
.7
1.5
.6
- 1 .4
2.2
1.3
.7

305
693
425
71
122
108
102
232
152
69

2.6
.7
2.5
.1
1.8
.5
- 1 .3
1.6
.8
.1

Petroleum refining and related p ro d u cts...............
Tires and inner tu b e s ...............................................
Miscellaneous rubber and plastics products . . . .
Other plastics products ..........................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather .................
Leather products including footwear ....................

217
105
178
94
36
341

182
119
162
320
29
316

210
122
167
493
20
234

184
126
179
658
14
212

- 1 .2
.3
.7
2.7
- 2 .7
- .9

201
129
181
669
15
226

- .4
.5
.8
2.8
- 2 .2
-.3

184
126
183
645
15
214

- 1 .2
.3
.8
2.5
- 2 .6
- .8

Transportation:
Railroad transportation..................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ................................
Truck transportation.......................................................
W ater transportation ....................................................
Air transportation............................................................
Pipeline transportation ..................................................
Transportation services ...............................................

930
311
1,001
239
184
24
70

651
315
1,214
234
357
18
111

561
303
1,558
223
442
20
192

4*2
3x
1,922
-198
493
22
240

- 1 .7
1.4
1.9
-1.1
1.0
1.1
2.1

493
364
2,052
204
525
22
262

- 1 .2
1.7
2.5
- .8
1.6
1.2
2.9

468
339
1,908
183
497
22
246

- 1 .6
1.0
1.8
- 1 .8
1.1
.7
2.3

Communications:
Radio and television b roadcasting..............................
Communications except radio and television ..........

80
749

131
919

193
1,121

266
1,280

3.0
1.2

277
1,454

3.4
2.4

267
1,300

3.0
1.4

Public utilities: •
Electric utilities, public and p riv a te ..............................
Gas utilities, excluding public .....................................
W ater and sanitary services, excluding public . . . .

430
215
61

460
220
88

606
223
93

650
242
108

.6
.8
1.4

758
274
128

2.1
1.9
2.9

654
235
114

.7
.5
1.8

Trade:
Wholesale trade ............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s ..........................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places . . .

3,349
1,960
7,936

4,163
2,812
9,729

5,501
4,924
11,952

6,366
6,836
13,830

1.3
3.0
1.3

6,984
7,179
15,088

2.2
3.5
2.1

6,412
6,843
14,190

1.4
3.0
1.6

Finance, insurance, and real estate:
Banking ...........................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers ......................
Insurance ........................................................................
Real e s ta te ......................................................................

644
389
1,137
753

987
652
1,370
855

1,492
898
1,753
1,371

1,981
1,174
2,120
1,732

2.6
2.5
1.7
2.1

2,013
1,329
2,193
1,926

2.8
3.6
2.1
3.1

1,957
1,303
2,133
1,716

2.5
3.4
1.8
2.1




28

1990

16S0

Table 4.

Continued— Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90

[In thousands]

Projected

A
ctual
Industry

L -trend
ow
A
verage
annual
1990
rate of
change,
1979-90

H
igh-trend 1
A
verage
annual
1990
rate of
change,
1979-90

H
igh-trend I
I
A
verage
annual
1990
rate of
change,
1979-90

1959

1989

1979

Services:
Hotels and lodging places ..........................................
Personal and repair services .....................................
B a ite r and beauty s h o p s .............................................
Miscellaneous business se rvice s................................
Advertising ......................................................................
Miscellaneous professional services .........................
Automobile repair .........................................................
Motion pictures ..............................................................
Amusement and recreation services .........................
Doctors’ and dentists' s e rv ic e s ...................................

868
1,157
538
814
121
746
422
228
372
605

1,065
1,232
634
1,691
134
1,046
569
248
497
806

1,543
1,278
613
3,144
166
1,720
837
308
761
1,317

1,887
1,281
649
4,314
192
2,179
1,168
315
1,029
1,896

1.8
.0
.5
2.9
1.3
2.2
3.1
.2
2.8
3.4

2,126
1,555
770
4,757
213
2,413
1,208
329
1,042
1,982

3.0
1.8
2.1
3.8
2.3
3.1
3.4
.6
2.9
3.8

2,035
1,424
733
4,509
198
2,292
1,148
306
1,019
1,875

2.5
1.0
1.6
3.3
1.6
2.6
2.9
-.1
2.7
3.3

Hospitals ........................................................................
Other medical services ...............................................
Educational services (p riva te ).....................................
Nonprofit organizations ...............................................
Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts .....................................
Agricultural, forestry, and fishery s e rv ic e s ...............
Private households .......................................................

974
283
839
1,331
47
261
2,574

1,776
652
1,229
1,764
41
296
2,322

2,621
1,403
1,683
2,244
76
447
1,723

3,967
2,312
2,098
2,638
78
542
1,576

3.8
4.6
2.0
1.5
.3
1.8
- .8

4,206
2,553
2,149
2,839
82
593
1,593

4.4
5.6
2.2
2.2
.8
2.6
- .7

3,954
2,403
2,075
2,722
76
543
1,587

3.8
5.0
1.9
1.8
.1
1.8
- .7

Government enterprises:
Post O ffic e ......................................................................
Other Federal enterprises ..........................................
Local government passenger tr a n s it.........................
Other state and local government enterprises . . . .

574
104
71
225

732
152
87
351

661
153
130
492

675
202
185
695

.2
2.6
3.3
3.2

700
236
200
774

.5
4.0
4.0
4.2

680
207
190
701

.3
2.8
3.5
3.3

growth at about the same pace as the total private
economy.
The greatest increase in employment opportunities
over the next 11 years is expected to be in the trade sec­
tor, primarily because of its initial large size. Between
4.7 and 6.9 million new jobs are projected to appear in
wholesale and retail trade establishments between 1979
and 1990.

been in the past. In 1959, service industries accounted
for 13.6 percent of total employment; by 1979, that
share had risen to 19.4 percent. It is expected that in
1990, service industries will account for about 22 per­
cent of all jobs in the economy.
Leading the advance among service industries will be
health care. Employment in doctors’ and dentists’ of­
fices and in hospitals is expected to grow faster than the
all-industries average, but the most rapid gains are pro­
jected for other related medical care services, such as
nursing homes, medical laboratories, therapists’ offices,
and nurses’ services. Between 1958 and 1979, employ­
ment in these establishments expanded by 8.8 percent a
year, the fastest growth rate for any industry in the
economy. During the 1980’s, other medical services em­
ployment will again post the fastest rate of growth un­
der all scenarios: 4.6 percent a year in the low-trend
model, 5.6 percent in high-trend I, and 5.0 percent in
high-trend II.

Manufacturing growth to pick up. Manufacturing jobs
will grow by 0.8 percent a year during 1979-90 in the
low-trend version, 1.6 percent in high-trend I, and 1.0
percent in high-trend II, slower than the rates projected
for total jobs but faster than manufacturing sector
growth in recent years. Between 1969 and 1979, manu­
facturing employment rose by only 0.5 percent a year,
and its share of total jobs dropped from 23.7 percent to
20.6 percent. Manufacturing will account for between
19.2 and 19.5 percent of all jobs in 1990.
The projected turnaround in the rate of manufactur­
ing job growth is more pronounced for durable goods
manufacturing than for nondurables, reflecting assump­
tions of strong demand for consumer durables and for
producers’ durable equipment, especially in the hightrend versions. Employment in durable manufacturing
industries will expand by 1.0 percent a year during 1979
-90 in the low-trend model, 1.9 percent in high-trend I,
and 1.2 percent in high-trend II. Annual growth aver­
aged only 0.7 percent in the 1969-79 period.
Within the durable goods sector, rapid job gains are
projected for industries manufacturing typewriters and

Trade will offer most new jobs. The trade sector is
expected to continue to increase its share of all jobs,
but within the sector the pattern of job growth varies.
Wholesale trade is projected to show only modest gains,
while eating and drinking establishments in the retail
portion enjoy more rapid growth. Although the antici­
pated rate of job increase for eating and drinking places
is higher than for many other industries in the econo­
my, it is still below the historical rate, due to an as­
sumption of more rapid productivity gains. Other retail
trade establishments are projected to average job



29

other office equipment; computers; electric lighting and
wiring equipment; and medical and dental instruments.
Employment in guided missiles and space vehicles is
projected to decline between 1979 and 1990, despite
output growth related to defense demand, because of
productivity advances.
In the motor vehicles industry, the high-trend as­
sumption is for employment to rebound from the layoffs
of 1980, but under low-trend assumptions, the recovery
will not be as complete. In 1977, 1978, and 1979, em­
Table

S.

ployment in the industry hovered around the 1 million
mark. In 1980, however, it plunged to 776,000. In the
high-trend I case, these lost jobs are expected to be
recouped and employment is projected to be 1.049 mil­
lion in 1990. In the low-trend case, 1990 motor vehicle
employment will be about 921,000.
The number of jobs in basic steel declined steadily
during the 1970’s, but is projected to stabilize over the
next 10 years. Employment is expected to rise slightly
from the 1979 level of 569,000 to between 583,000 and

Employm ent fey m ajor se c to r, actual and p ro jected , se le c te d y ears, 1SSD-S0
Thousands o f jo bs
Actual

P rojected

Industry se cto r
1985
1SSS

1889

1980

1979
Low -trend

Total e m p lo ym e n t..................................................
General government1 .......................................................
F e d e ra l.............................................................................
M ilita ry .....................................................................
C ivilian ..........................................................................
State and local ..............................................................
E ducation.....................................................................
N oneducation..............................................................
Total private ........................................................................
A gricu ltu re ........................................................................
N ona g riculture .................................................................
Mining ..........................................................................
C onstruction.................................................................
Manufacturing ............................................................
Durable goods .......................................................
Nondurable g o o d s ..................................................
Transportation, communications, and public
utilities ......................................................................
Transportation .......................................................
C om m unications....................................................
Public utilities .........................................................
Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ......................
Other services ............................................... ...
Government enterprises ..........................................
Private h ou se h o ld s....................................................

H igh-trend I

H igh-trend II

Low -trend

H igh-trend I

H igh-trend II

70,512
9.973
4,289
2,552
1,737
5,684
2,687
2,997
60,539
5,491
55,048
612
3,825
16,985
9,560
7,425

86,278
14,818
5,614
3,506
2,108
9,204
5,036
4,168
71,460
3,494
67,986
501
4,386
20,469
12,081
8,388

104,120
16,523
4,223
2,103
2,120
12,300
6,642
5,658
87,597
2,815
84,782
708
5,897
21,433
13,009
8,424

113,775
17,587
4,355
2,129
2,226
13,232
6,679
6,553
96,188
2,621
93,566
898
6,747
22,609
13,833
8,775

118,981
17,587
4,355
2,129
2,226
13,232
6,679
6,553
101,394
'2,921
98,472
946
7,080
23,855
14,644
9,210

114,935
17,441
4,209
2,129
2,080
13,232
6,679
6,553
97,494
2,922
94,572
896
6,810
22,895
14,036
8,859

121,971
18,108
4,429
2,129
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
103,865
2,333
101,531
967
6,920
23,476
14,560
8,916

130,665
18,106
4,429
2,129
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
112,559
2,633
109,925
1,059
7,509
25,520
16,045
9,475

123,958
17,886
4,209
2,129
2,080
13,677
6,513
7,164
106,072
2,634
103,438
959
7,104
23,905
14,872
9,033

4,304
2,759
839
708
13,245
2,923
9,606
974
2,574

4,718
2,900
1,050
768
16,704
3,864
13,680
1,322
2,322

5,535
3,299
1,314
922
22,377
5,514
20,161
1,436
1,723

5,903
3,488
1,447
968
24,868
6,096
23,249
1,606
1,586

6,213
3,627
1,535
1,051
26,150
6,427
24,497
1,681
1,618

5,898
3,468
1,459
971
24,961
6,252
23,642
1,625
1,592

6,239
3,693
1,546
1,000
27,032
7,008
26,553
1,758
1,576

6,815
3,924
1,731
1,160
29,231
7,464
28,824
1,911
1,593

6,241
3,671
1,567
1,003
27,445
7,108
27,313
1,778
1,587

P ercent d istrib utio n
A ctual

P rojected
1985

1959

1880

1990

1979
Low -trend

Total e m p lo ym e n t..................................................
General government' .......................................................
Federal .............................................................................
M ilita ry ..........................................................................
C ivilian ...........................................................................
State and local ..............................................................
E ducation......................................................................
N oneducation..............................................................
Total private ........................................................................
A gricu ltu re ........................................................................
N ona g riculture ................................................................
Mining ..........................................................................
C onstruction................................................................
Manufacturing ............................................................
Durable goods .......................................................
Nondurable g o o d s ..................................................
Transportation, communications, and public
utilities .....................................................................
Transportation .......................................................
C om m unications....................................................
Public utilities .........................................................
Wholesale and retail tr a d e ........................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ......................
Other services ............................................................
Government enterprises ..........................................
Private h o u se h o ld s....................................................

H igh-trend I

H igh-trend II

Low -trend

H igh-trend I

H igh-trend II

100.0
14.1
6.1
3.6
2.5
8.1
3.8
4.3
85.9
7.8
78.1
.9
5.4
24.1
13.6
10.5

100.0
17.2
6.5
4.1
2.4
10.7
5.8
4.8
82.8
4.0
78.8
.6
5.1
23.7
14.0
9.7

100.0
15.9
4.1
2.0
2.0
11.8
6.4
5.4
84.1
2.7
81.4
.7
5.8
20.6
12.5
8.1

100.0
15.5
3.8
1.9
2.0
11.6
5.9
5.8
84.5
2.3
82.2
.8
5.9
19.9
12.2
7.7

100.0
14.8
3.7
1.8
1.9
11.1
5.6
5.5
85.2
2.5
82.8
.8
6.0
20.0
12.3
7.7

100.0
15.2
3.7
1.9
1.8
11.5
5.8
5.7
84.8
2.5
82.3
.8
5.9
19.9
12.2
7.7

100.0
14.8
3.6
1.7
1.9
11.2
5.3
5.9
85.2
1.9
83.2
.8
5.7
19.2
11.9
7.3

100.0
13.9
3.4
1.6
1.8
10.5
5.0
5.5
86.1
2.0
84.1
.8
5.7
19.5
12.3
7.3

100.0
14.4
3.4
1.7
1.7
11.0
5.3
5.8
85.6
2.1
83.4
.8
5.7
19.3
12.0
7.3

6.1
3.9
1.2
1.0
18,8
4.1
13.6
1.4
3.7

5.5
3.4
1.2
.9
19.4
4.5
15.9
1.5
2.7

5.3
3.2
1.3
.9
21.5
5.3
19.4
1.4
1.7

5.2
3.1
1.3
.9
21.9
5.4
20.4
1.4
1.4

5.2
3.0
1.3
.9
22.0
5.4
20.6
1.4
1.4

5.1
3.0
1.3
.8
21.7
5.4
20.6
1.4
1.4

5.1
3.0
1.3
.8
22.2
5.7
21.8
1.4
1.3

5.2
3.0
1.3
.9
22.4
5.7
22.1
1.5
1.2

5.0
3.0
1.3
.9
22.1
5.7
22.0
1.4
1.3

1 National Income Accounts basis.




30

Table 6.

Average annual percent change in employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years, 1©5@-S0
A ctual

P rojected

0

Industry sector

1979-85
1959-69

1630-79

1885-00

Low -trend
Total e m plo ym e n t..................................................
General government1 .......................................................
F e d e ra l.............................................................................
M ilita ry..........................................................................
C ivilian ..........................................................................
State and local ..............................................................
Education .....................................................................
N oneducation..............................................................
Total private ........................................................................
A gricu ltu re ........................................................................
N onagriculture.................................................................
Mining ..........................................................................
C onstruction................................................................
Manufacturing ...........................................................
Durable goods .......................................................
Nondurable g o o d s ..................................................
Transportation, communications, and public
utilities........................................................................
Transportation .......................................................
Communications . . . ..........................................
Public utilities .........................................................
Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ......................
Other services ............................................................
Government enterprises ..........................................
Private h o u se h o ld s....................................................

H
igh-trend 1

H igh-trend II

Low -trend

High-trend 1

High-trend II

1.9
.6
.3
.0
.7
.7
- .5
1.8
2.1
-2.1
2.2
2.3
1.2
1.4
1.8
.6

1.5
.5
.0
.0
.0
.7
- .5
1.8
1.7
-2 .1
1.8
1.4
.8
.9
1.2
.4

1.9
1.6
2.4
2.0
2.3

1.1
1.1
1.4
.6
1.9
2.6
2.9
1.8
-.1

2.0
4.0
2.7
3.2
2.0
4.9
6.5
3.4
1.7
- 4 .4
2.1
- 2 .0
1.4
1.9
2.4
1.2

1.9
1.1
- 2 .8
- 5 .0
.1
2.9
2.8
3.1
2.1
-2 .1
2.3
3.5
3.0
.5
.7
.0

1.5
1.0
.5
.2
.8
1.2
.1
2.5
1.6
- 1 .2
1.7
4.1
2.3
.9
1.0
.7

2.3
1.0
.5
.2
.8
1.2
.1
2.5
2.5
.6
2.5
5.0
3.1
1.8
2.0
1.5

T.7
.9
.0
.2
-.3
1.2
.1
2.5
1.8
.6
1.8
4.0
2.4
1.1
1.3
.8

1.4
.6
.3
.0
.7
.7
-.5
1.8
1.5
- 2 .3
1.6
1.5
.5
.8
1.0

.9
.5
2.3
.8
2.3
2.8
3.6
3.1
- 1 .0

1.6
1.3
2.3
1.8
3.0
3.6
4.0
.8
- 2 .9

1.1
.9
1.6
.8
1.8
1.7
2.4
1.9
- 1 .4

1.9
1.6
2.6
2.2
2.6
2.6

1.1
.8
1.8
.9
1.8
2.1
2.7
2.1
- 1 .3

1.1
1.1
1.3
.7
1.7
2.8
2.7
1.8
-.1

3.3

2.7
- 1 .0

.3

3.0
3.3

2.6
- .3

1 National Income Accounts basis.

586.00 by 1990. An increase in steel jobs is projected
despite an assumption that imports will account for a
larger share of total steel output, because demand for
basic steel products is expected to be strong in the next
decade as the result of rapid investment growth.
The projected increase in nondurable goods employ­
ment, although positive compared to the zero growth
posted during 1969-79, is much slower than the all­
industries average. Nondurable goods industries ac­
counted for 8.1 percent of all jobs in 1979, but are
expected to represent only 7.3 percent in 1990.
In fact, 5 of the 10 industries with the greatest rate of
projected job loss are in the nondurable goods sector.
(See table 7.) The five industries have already experi­
enced job declines either because of falling demand or
rapid productivity growth, and these trends are ex­
pected to continue. Sluggish demand for leather tanning
services and processed foods (especially dairy and bak­
ery products) is expected to cause employment to fall;
for alcoholic beverages and synthetic fibers, productivity
gains are assumed to more than offset rapidly rising de­
mand.
Employment in textiles will remain essentially
unchanged from the 1979 level of 892,(X ) in the lowX
trend and high-trend II versions, and rise by about
65.000 jobs in high-trend I. Demand for textile prod­
ucts is projected to expand in all models, but imports
are expected to hold a 6.7- to 7.5-percent market share
1990, somewhat larger than at present.
Jobs in apparel are projected to rise from 1.1 million
to between 1.2 and 1.3 million between 1979 and 1990.
Demand will increase with disposable incomes, out­



weighing the assumption that the import share of total
apparel output will rise to between 14 and 16 percent.
Public sector growth will halt. Although most major eco­
nomic sectors are expected to follow past trends in
terms of shares of total jobs, State and local govern­
ments are an exception. Their employment share rose
from 8.1 percent of the total in 1959 to 11.8 percent in
1979, but by 1990, it will account for 11.2 percent of all
jobs in the low-trend version and 10.5 percent in hightrend I. The slow growth is expected to result primarily
from reductions in school enrollment, which will more
than offset gains expected in the public health and hos­
pitals field.
Federal employment is assumed to change only
slightly from the 1979 level, and in one case (high-trend
II) is projected to decline. Government employment in
high-trend I, the model with the largest labor force, is
the same as in the low-trend model because of assump­
tions that investment and tax policies will allow the pri­
vate sector to completely absorb the larger labor force.
Other sectors show mixed patterns. Finance, insurance,
and real estate employment is projected to continue to
rise as a share of total jobs during the 1980’s, despite
slower than average output growth. Demand for credit
and banking services, in particular, is expected to stimu­
late employment growth in this area despite sluggish
demand for real estate services.
The rate of employment increase in construction is
projected to parallel the output trends discussed earlier,
accelerating in the first half of the decade in response to

31

the shifting energy picture. Coal mining is projected to
be one of the fastest growing of all industries during the
next decade. Over the past 30 years, employment in the
coal industry has experienced major cycles. Following
severe job cutbacks between 1950 and 1965, employ­
ment stabilized during 1965-69, then expanded steadily
over the next 10 years. Although a shift from under­
ground mines to more capital-intensive surface mines
will cause output per worker-hour to grow faster in the
coal industry than in the private nonfarm economy as a
whole, employment is expected to continue to rise rap­
idly in response to increased demand for coal. Annual
growth of 4.1 to 5.4 percent is projected for 1979-90.
In the crude petroleum and natural gas drilling indus­
try, employment is expected to rise faster than domestic
output, as exploration for new oil creates demand for
more workers but yields a decreasing rate of return.

T a b le 7 .
L © w - flr @ n d ] p r o j e c t e d e m p l o y m e n t c h a n g e s f o r
s e le c te d in d u s t r ie s , 1 9 7 9 - 9 0
Fastest gro w in g

Other medical s e rv ic e s .............................................................................
Typewriters and other office equipment ...............................................
Computers and peripheral equ ip m en t....................................................
Coal mining .................................................................................................
H o s p ita ls ......................................................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ............................................................
Doctors’ and dentists' services ..............................................................
Local government passenger tra n s it.......................................................
Other state and local government ente rp rise s................................
Automobile re p a ir.......................................................................................
M ost rapidly declining

Dairy and poultry products .....................................................................
Alcoholic b e v e ra g e s ..................................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r....................................................
L o g g in g ........................................................................................................
Synthetic fibers .........................................................................................
Other agricultural products .....................................................................
Railroad transportation .............................................................................
Wooden co n ta ine rs....................................................................................
Dairy products (pro ce sse d ).....................................................................
Bakery p ro d u c ts ..................................................................... ...................
Largest jo b gains

Eating and drinking p la c e s ..............................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...................................
H o s p ita ls ......................................................................................................
Miscellaneous business services ...........................................................
Other medical services ...................................................................
New construction .......................................................................................
Wholesale tr a d e .........................................................................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services ..........................................
..........
P a n k in g ........................................................................................................
Educational services (private) .............................................

A verage annual
rate o f
jo b g ro w th
4.6
4.5
4.2
4.1
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
A verage annual
rate o f
jo b d ecline
- 3 .3
-3.1
- 2 .7
- 2 .4
-2 .1
- 1 .8
- 1 .7
- 1 .6
- 1 .6
- 1 .5

Previous projections for 1990
In April 1979, BLS published its first look at industry
output and employment for the year 1990, in the form
of a base case and a high-employment alternative. The
first case, intended as a base-line projection, incorporat­
ed a moderately expanding labor force, a relatively slow
decline in inflation and unemployment, and mod­
erate government expenditures. The high-employment
alternative assumed a much larger labor force, and a
heavy emphasis on job creation which would lower the
unemployment rate. What are the differences between

E m ploym ent gain
(in thousands)
1,912
1,878
1,347
1,171
909
892
866
580
490
416

strong housing demand, then slowing somewhat during
the second half as demand for residential construction
tapers. Between 1.0 million (low-trend) and 1.6 million
(high-trend I) new jobs will be added in the construc­
tion industry between 1979 and 1990.
Farm employment is expected to continue to decline
through the next decade, but the drop is not expected
to be as rapid as in the last few decades; in the hightrend versions there is even a small gain between 1979
and 1985. Past productivity advances in agriculture
have been very great: Between 1959 and 1979, output
per hour of all persons in the farm sector rose by al­
most 5 percent annually, compared with about 2 or 3
percent for the private nonfarm economy before 1973
and less than 1 percent a year thereafter. These ad­
vances have already begun to slow, however, and the
continued tapering of increases in farm productivity
during the 1980’s is expected to moderate the rate of
decline in farm jobs.

Table 8. Comparison of previous and current
employment projections for 1990
[In thousands]
P revious
Ind u stry se cto r

Total employment ..................
General governm ent' .........................
F e d era l...............................................
Military ........................... ..
Civilian ..........................................
State and local .........................
Education .....................................
Noneducation ..............................
Total p riv a te ..........................................
Agriculture ........................................
N onagriculture............ ......................
M in in g ............................................
Construction ................................
Manufacturing ..............................
Durable g o o d s .........................
Nondurable goods .................
Transportation, communications,
and public utilities ....................
Transportation .........................
Com m unications......................
Public u tilitie s ...........................
Wholesale and retail trade . . . .
Finance, insurance, and real
estate ........................................
Other s e rvice s.......... ...............
Government e n te rp rise s............
Private households......................

Mining job growth above average. The largest industries
within the mining sector in terms of jobs— coal mining
and crude petroleum and natural gas extraction— are
expected to experience employment changes in line with




1 National Income Accounts basis.

32

C urrent

Base
case

Low -trend

H igh-trend
1

High-trend
II

121,204
18,066
4,389
2,089
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
103,138
2,634
100,504
787
6,033
23,882
14,692
9,189

121,971
18,106
4,429
2,129
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
103,865
2,333
101,531
967
6,920
23,476
14,560
8,916

130,665
18,106
4,429
2,129
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
112,559
2,633
109,925
1,059
7,509
25,520
16.045
9,475

123,958
17,886
4,209
2,129
.2,080
13,677
6,513
7,164
106,072
2,634
103,438
959
7,104
23,905
14,872
9,033

5,658
3,332
1,473
1,104
27,370

6,239
3,693
1,546
1,000
27,032

6,815
3,924
1,731
1,160
29,231

6,241
3,671
1,567
1,003
27,445

6,695
26,742
1,779
1,307

7,008
26,553
1,758
1,576

7,464
28,824
1,911
1,593

7,108
27,313
1,778
1,587

higher than the old base case in all new scenarios:

those initial 1990 forecasts and the present ones?
One important change has been the development of a
range of possible values for 1990 rather than a single
base-line case plus an alternate. The new low-trend and
high-trend I versions are intended to present a band
within which a “base case” might fall.
In addition, estimates of the 1990 civilian labor force
have been revised upward in all of the new scenarios.
(For both 1990 employment projections, BLS prepared
three alternative labor force projections—a low growth
path, a middle growth path, and a high growth path.
The old base case and the new low-trend and hightrend II models were based on the BLS middle labor
force growth path. The old high-employment alternative
and the new high-trend I model were based on the high
labor force growth path.) Between 1977, the last year
for which data were available for the first projections,
and 1979, the last year for which data were available
for the new ones, labor force participation rates of
women have risen faster than expected. Consequently,
the new 1990 labor force projections are higher than the
old ones for all three labor force scenarios:
Old projection
(000's)
Low growth path . . .
Middle growth path .
High growth path . .

Old projections: Base c a s e ...................
High-employment
alternative ...........
New projections: Low-trend . . . . . .
H ig h -tren d i...........
High-trend I I ____

117,394
122,375
128,123

Somewhat offsetting a larger labor force are new as­
sumptions about the unemployment rate in light of the
recent recession; except in the case of the 1990 hightrend I version, the new rates are higher than in the old
projections:
Old projections: Base c a s e ....................................
High-employment alternative.
New projections: Low-trend ................................
High-trend I ............................
High-trend II .........................

1985
4.7
4.0
7.0
5.5
6.0

(000's)

1990

114,440

121,204

119,627
113,775
118,981
114,935

128,400
121,971
130,665
123,958

At the industry level, the new assumptions raise the
employment projections for most sectors, although the
1978-79 experience has altered the original outlook for
many individual industries. For example, the synthetic
fibers industry was projected to be one of the top 10
job gainers (in terms of rate of growth) in the first set
of projections, but this time ranks among the top 10
losers. Rising prices which curbed demand, and gains in
productivity contributed to this reversal.
The distribution of final demand also changed be­
tween the old and new scenarios, affecting both indus­
try output and employment projections. Defense pro­
curement was originally assumed to experience a
slowdown during the 1980’s but is now projected to in­
crease its share of GNP; personal consumption expendi­
tures are not expected to grow as rapidly as initially
forecast; and levels of exports and imports are both
higher in the new versions. These revisions contribute to
a change in the 1990 distribution of output and jobs at
the industry level. (See table 8.)
The earlier forecasts assumed a shift in energy re­
sources from oil and gas to coal, as do the new fore­
casts, but oil price shocks have been even more severe
than originally anticipated, leading to a more pro­
nounced shift in the new projections.
And finally, the previous forecasts used Department
of Commerce input-output tables for 1963 and 1967
and a BLS-estimated table for 1973. Subsequently, a
1972 input-output table was published by the Depart­
ment of Commerce. Use of this table in the new projec­
tions resulted in widespread data revisions in many
historical series and provided more current information
on technological trends.
□

New projection
(000's)

113,521
119,366
125,603

1985
(000's)

1990
4.5
4.0
6.0
4.0
4.5

Military force levels are virtually unchanged in the
new scenarios from those previously assumed. The re­
sult is a projection of total employment for 1990 that is

FOOTNOTES
government expenditures include not only purchases but also grants,
transfers, and net interest payments.
4 Projections o f the Population o f the United States: 1977 to 2050.

1Annual Report to Congress, 1979, Volume 3, (Energy Information
Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, 1980).
2 Projections o f the Population o f the United States: 1977 to 2050,
Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 704 (Census Bureau 1977).
3Government purchases are outlays for goods and services, while




5 The Detailed Input-Output Structure o f the U.S. Economy: 1972,
(U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1979).

33

Occupational employment
growth through 1990
Three alternative sets o f occupational employment
projections for the 1978-90 period all show high growth
for white-collar and service categories, hut slow growth
for blue-collar workers and decreases among farmworkers
M ax L. Carey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed three sets
of occupational employment projections for 1978 to
1990 based on varying outlooks of the future economy.1
Although the assumptions that differentiate these sce­
narios result in various rates of growth for most jobs,
changes in the occupational composition of total em­
ployment during these years are similar for all versions
and generally correspond to past trends. Employment
continues to expand more rapidly in service occupations
than it does in other categories, and the number of
farmworkers still declines. White-collar jobs increase
faster than total employment in each scenario, and the
number of blue-collar jobs grows slower than the total.
However, growth rates are expected to vary greatly
within these broad categories, because demographic
changes, technological developments, and shifts in the
demand for products and services affect major occupa­
tional categories differently. For example, anticipated
decreases in the teenage population and increases in the
number of elderly persons in the 1980’s will reduce the
need for secondary schoolteachers while increasing it for
nurses.
Although the occupational structure of total employ­
ment in 1990 is similar in each version of the economy,

some occupations are more sensitive than others to the
differences in underlying assumptions. Generally, jobs
which are concentrated in manufacturing industries that
produce durable goods are most affected, as projected
increases in the demand for these goods vary greatly
among the scenarios. In contrast, occupations which are
concentrated in government are relatively unaffected,
because projections of its total employment change very
little from one version to another. None of the scenarios
attempts to forecast cyclical employment fluctuations.
This article summarizes projections from the first na­
tional industry-occupation matrix to be developed on
the basis of staffing patterns from the Occupational Em­
ployment Statistics Surveys. Previous matrices were
based on the decennial census.2
The matrix is a major input to the Bureau’s occupa­
tional outlook program which conducts research on fu­
ture occupational requirements and resources for use in
planning education and training programs and for career
guidance and counseling. The results of the research are
published in the Occupational Outlook Handbook and
the Occupational Outlook Quarterly, which also contain
information on the nature of work in different occupa­
tions, educational and training needs, earnings and
working conditions, and other subjects of interest to
people who are planning careers. The projections de­
scribed in this article will be used in the 1982-83 edition
of the Handbook, scheduled for release in spring 1982.

Max L. Carey is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and
Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.



34

Alternative scenarios

1990, while the latter declines from 32.6 percent in 1978
to between 31.8 and 31.5 percent in 1990.
Service workers continue to be the fastest growing
major occupational category. The number of service
jobs rises from 14.4 million in 1978 to 18.9 million in
1990 in the low-trend version, while the high-trend pro­
jections range from 19.2 to 20.1 million. The share of
total jobs accounted for by service occupations in­
creases from 14.8 percent in 1978 to between 15.7 and
15.8 percent in 1990. On the other hand, the number of
farmworkers, is expected to continue declining. Their
share of total jobs is projected to decrease from 2.8 per­
cent in 1978 to between 1.9 and 1.8 percent in 1990.
Although service occupations, with projected employ­
ment increases ranging between 31.4 and 39.3 percent,
are expected to be the fastest growing occupational
group during 1978-90, the largest number of new jobs
will occur in the white- and blue-collar categories. (See
chart 1.) The projected increase in white-collar jobs for
this period ranges from about 12.1 to 16.1 million, and
the corresponding range for blue-collar jobs is approxi­
mately 5.9 to 8.9 million. The number of new service jobs
is expected to run between 4.5 and 5.7 million.
Job growth in blue-collar occupations is affected rela­
tively more by differences among the three scenarios
than in other major occupational categories. The num­
ber of new jobs projected for all occupations during
1978-90 is almost 22 million in the low-trend version,
compared with 30.3 million in high-trend alternative I,
a difference of 37.8 percent. However, the difference is
50.1 percent for blue-collar occupations alone. These
occupations are sensitive to high-trend I because they
are concentrated in manufacturing industries, and the
demand for manufactured goods is relatively greater in
this version of the economy. Demand for manufactured
goods also is greater in the high-trend II scenario, but
the need for additional blue-collar workers is moderated
by the higher productivity gains assumed in this ver­
sion. For all occupations, about 8.5 percent more new
jobs are projected in high-trend II than in the low-trend
scenario. The difference for blue-collar jobs is 10.3 per­
cent. Job growth in the white-collar and service catego­
ries generally is less affected by differences in the
scenarios than blue-collar job growth. However, among
the major occupational groups and detailed occupations
within these large categories, the sensitivity to these dif­
ferences varies.

Three projections of economic growth for the 1980’s
have been developed by BLS. Referred to as the lowtrend, high-trend I, and high-trend II scenarios, they
are based on different assumptions concerning growth
of the labor force, output, productivity, and other fac­
tors. The low-trend alternative assumes a decline in the
rate of labor force expansion, continued high inflation,
and modest increases in production and productivity.
The two high-trend alternatives are more optimistic;
both being based on large increases in the gross nation­
al product. Whereas scenario I assumes higher labor
force growth, scenario II assumes greater productivity.
In all three alternatives, reductions in both personal
income taxes and the effective corporate tax rate are
expected to stimulate investment, and it is anticipated
that expenditures for new equipment by the private sec­
tor will grow somewhat faster than other types of in­
vestment. Sharp increases in defense spending for
materials and supplies are expected in the 1980’s, but
the nondefense portion of Federal purchases is foreseen
to show no growth. Drastic cutbacks in imports of
crude oil are assumed in each scenario. However, oil
imports, as well as domestic output of crude oil and
other fuels, are greater in the high-trend alternatives, re­
flecting the high overall levels of industrial production
anticipated in these versions of the economy. More de­
tails about the assumptions and economic projections
are given in other articles in this issue of the Review.
Total employment in the low-trend scenario increases
by 22.5 percent between 1978 and 1990, from 97.6 to
119.6 million.3 In high-trend I, employment is expected
to rise by 31 percent during the same period, to 127.9
million in 1990; in high-trend II, it is projected at 121.4
million, or 24.4 percent above the 1978 level. The rate
of employment growth in high-trend I is somewhat
faster than during the previous two decades, while the
rates for the other two scenarios are slower.
Employment in white-collar occupations is expected
to expand faster than total employment in each version
of the economy. In the low-trend scenario, white-collar
jobs rise from 48.6 million in 1978 to 60.7 million in
1990. The 1990 high-trend projections range from 61.6
to 64.7 million. Employment in blue-collar occupations
is projected to grow slower than total employment in
each version. Blue-collar jobs increase from 31.8 million
in 1978 to 37.7 million in 1990 in the low-trend projec­
tion, while high-trend projections for 1990 range from
38.3 to 40.7 million.
Despite the difference in these estimates among the
alternatives, the proportions of total employment ac­
counted for by white-collar and blue-collar jobs do not
change substantially. The former increases from 49.8
percent in 1978 to between 50.6 and 50.9 percent in




Growth among white-collar groups
Professional and technical workers. Employment in pro­
fessional and technical jobs was 15.6 million in 1978—
about 15.9 percent of the national total. Although this
group includes a wide variety of occupations, generally
requiring postsecondary education, approximately twothirds of the jobs were accounted for by teachers, medi-

35

Ch®e11 . J@h gro^SIh tor m ajor ©©©yputoinsDl categories under iltoimgitihf© @©©5D@mte projddltoin)©,
1978-90
Millions of jobs

-1 L
White-collar workers

Blue-collar workers

Service workers

differences among individual fields. For example, em­
ployment in most medical and health occupations is
projected to expand very rapidly, while in many teach­
ing occupations it is expected to decline. Rising incomes
and greater health consciousness will boost demand for
health care, as will population growth—especially the
substantia! increase in the number of older people, who
have more need for health services. During the 1980’s,
the number off persons age 75 and over is expected to
advance from 9.4 to 12.0 million. As a result of these
factors, opportunities for professional and technical
workers in hospitals, clinics, laboratories, nursing
homes, and other settings are likely to increase rapidly.
Demand may be very high in rural areas and inner cit­
ies, as job openings in less desirable locations have tra­
ditionally been difficult to ill. In contrast to the rapid
employment growth projected in the health field, job®
for secondary, college, and university teachers are
expected to decrease somewhat as a result of the decline

cal professionals, health technologists and technicians,
engineers, and engineering and science technicians.
Over the past two decades, the professional and tech­
nical group has been one of the fastest growing occupa­
tional categories. For example, between 1966 and 1978
employment in this group increased almost twice as fast
as it did in all occupations. Between 1978 and 1990,
employment is projected to continue to rise faster than
employment in all occupations in each of the alternative
scenarios, but the difference is anticipated to be less
than in the past. In the low-trend version of the econo­
my, employment of .professional and technical workers
is projected to increase by 28.7 percent over “ same
the
period. The growth in the high-trend I version is 35.7
percent and that for high-trend II is 30.4 percent. (See
table 1.)
While employment in professional and technical jobs
as a whole is expected to increase faster than the aver­
age rate for all occupations, there will be significant




Farmworkers

36

Managers and administrators. The 8.8 million workers
in this broad group in 1978 included managers and ad­
ministrators at all levels of business and government,
from corporate executives and government officials to
managers of small businesses such as restaurants and
repair shops. A relatively large proportion of managers
— nearly 1 of 5— were self-employed.
Employment in this group is projected to grow more
slowly than the average during 1978-90 in each scenar­
io. Projected increases range from 19.1 percent in the
low-trend version to between 21.3 and 27.9 percent in
the high-trend alternatives. The demand for managers is
more sensitive to the differences in the three scenarios
than that for all occupations.
Despite an overall increase in the managerial group,
the number of self-employed managers has been declin­
ing, and this trend is expected to continue in the lowtrend and high-trend II scenarios. However, in hightrend I a small increase in self-employed managers is
projected.

in births that occurred in the 1960’s and 1970’s. De­
mand for secondary schoolteachers could fall precipi­
tously in the Northeast and North Central States,
where the Bureau of the Census projects a drop of close
to 25 percent in the number of 15- to 19-year-olds be­
tween 1980 and 1990. A growing number of adults have
entered college in recent years, but their enrollment is
not expected to completely offset the decline in tradi­
tional-age college students. In contrast, a small increase
in the demand for preschool, kindergarten, and elemen­
tary teachers is anticipated, reflecting recent increases in
births, as a growing number of women enter the prime
childbearing ages. More opportunities for adult educa­
tion teachers are also foreseen.
The demand for professional and technical workers as
a group is less sensitive to differences among the scenar­
ios than the demand for workers in all occupations.
However, within the professional and technical group,
sensitivity varies. The demand for teachers is not
affected significantly by differences in the scenarios. But
alternative versions of the economy do have an impact
on the projections for engineers and engineering and
science technicians because these occupations are con­
centrated in manufacturing industries. Because the hightrend alternatives assume lower corporate tax rates and
other incentives designed to stimulate business invest­
ment in new equipment, employment requirements in
manufacturing industries which produce this equipment
are higher. For example, in high-trend I, engineering
employment is expected to rise by 553,(X ) between
X
1978 and 1990, compared with an increase of only
433,000 in the low-trend projection, which would mean
about 27.7 percent more new jobs for engineers during
the period.

Table 1.

Salesworkers. Employment in sales occupations totaled
approximately 6.4 million in 1978, or about 6.6 percent
of employment in all occupations. Nearly half of these
workers were concentrated in retail trade, and most of
the remainder worked in manufacturing and in service
industries such as finance, insurance, and real estate.
Employment in sales jobs is projected to grow faster
than the average for all occupations during 1978-90 in
each version of the economy.
Employment of salesworkers rises from 6.4 to 8.0
million between 1978 and 1990 in the low-trend version,
or 24.4 percent. Projected increases range from 25.8 to
34.5 percent in the high-trend versions. The demand for

Employment by major occupational group, actual 1978, and alternative projections for 1990

[Numbers in thousands]
P ercentage change in em ploym ent,
1978-60

1080
1978

O ccupational gro u p

Low -trend

High-trend I

H igh-trend II
Low -trend

High-trend
1

H igh-trend
II

100.0

22.5

31.0

24.4

61,570
20,295
10,677
8,079
22,519

50.7
16.7
8.8
6.7
18.5

24.9
28.7
19.1
24.4
24.7

33.1
35.7
27.9
34.5
33.0

26.7
30.4
21.3
25.8
26.4

31.8
12.2
13.8
5.8

38,330
14,668
16,584
7,078

31.6
12.1
13.7
5.8

18.6
22.7
15.4
17.8

27.9
32.9
24.6
26.1

20.5
25.3
16.8
19.9

20,074
993
19,081

15.7
0.8
14.9

19,220
988
18,232

15.8
0.8
15.0

31.4
-1 5 .4
35.5

39.3
-1 4 .4
44.0

33.3
-1 4 .9
37.6

2,426

1.9

2,327

1.9

-2 1 .0

-1 2 .6

-1 6 .3

Num ber

P ercent

Number

P ercent

N um ber

Percent

N um ber

Percent

Total .........................................................

97,610

100.0

119,590

100.0

127,907

100.0

121,447

White-collar workers ..........................................
Professional and technical workers . . . .
Managers and adm inistrators....................
S ale sw o rke rs...............................................
Clerical w o rk e rs ..........................................

48,608
15,568
8,802
6,420
17,818

49.8
15.9
9.0
6.6
18.3

60,730
20,038
10,484
7,989
22,219

50.9
16.8
8.8
6.7
18.6

64,712
21,119
11,257
8,632
23,705

50.6
16.5
8.8
6.8
18.5

Blue-collar workers .............................................
Craft and kindred w o rk e rs .........................
O p e ra tive s....................................................
Nonfarm la b o re rs ........................................

31,812
11,705
14,205
5,902

32.6
12.0
14.6
6.0

37,720
14,366
16,399
6,955

31.5
1| °
13.7
5.8

40,694
15,555
17,697
7,441

Service w o rk e rs....................................................
Private household workers ......................
Other service w o rk e rs ................................

14,414
1,160
13,254

14.8
1.2
13.6

18,946
982
17,965

15.8
0.8
15.0

F a rm w orke rs.........................................................

2,775

2.8

2,193

1.8

N ote : Due to rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.




37

spur residential investment expenditures in the first half
of the 1980’s. However, after 1985 it is anticipated that
the rate of new household formation will decline, re­
flecting the decrease in births that began in the 1960’s.
Business investment in construction of new plants and
buildings is expected to offset some of the slack in resi­
dential construction during the late 1980’s.
Employment of mechanics in the low-trend version is
projected to rise from almost 3.8 to 4.8 million between
1978 and 1990, or 26.8 percent. However, rates of
change vary considerably among the individual occupa­
tions. For example, the number of data processing ma­
chine mechanics is projected to increase 147.6 percent,
while that of railroad car repairers is expected to de­
cline. The number of workers in the metalworking
crafts expands almost as fast as the average rate for all
occupations in the low-trend version, but printing
trades workers are projected to increase much more
slowly than average. Improvements in printing technol­
ogy have increased productivity and this trend should
continue.
The demand for craftworkers is more sensitive to dif­
ferences in the alternative scenarios than the demand
for workers in all occupations. The projected number of
new jobs for craftworkers in the high-trend alternatives
is 11.3 to 44.7 percent higher than in the low-trend ver­
sion. In comparison, the projected number of new jobs
in all occupations in the high-trend alternatives ranged
from 8.5 to 37.8 percent greater than those in the lowtrend version of the economy.
Craft occupations that are concentrated in manufac­
turing industries, such as the metalworking crafts and
printing trades, are particularly sensitive to differences
in the scenarios. For example, employment in metal­
working crafts increases by 283,000 in the high-trend I
projection, which is 65 percent greater than the project­
ed increase of 172,000 in the low-trend version. A large
proportion of metalworking craft employment is found
in factories that produce equipment for business and in­
dustrial use. Because growth in investment for equip­
ment is much faster in high-trend I, employment re­
quirements will be greater in most industries that
manufacture fabricated metal products, machinery, elec­
trical equipment, and transportation equipment. In
some industries, the number of new metalworking craft
jobs in high-trend I is more than twice the number in
the low-trend version.

salespersons is slightly more sensitive to the differences
in the low-trend and high-trend I scenarios than it is for
workers in all occupations. However, differences be­
tween the low-trend and high-trend II scenarios have
relatively little effect on the demand for salesworkers.
Clerical workers. Clerical occupations account for more
jobs than any other occupational group. About 17.8
million persons or 18.3 percent of all workers, were in
clerical occupations in 1978; nearly 1 of 5 clericals was
either a secretary or a typist. Some other large occupa­
tions within this group were general office clerks, ca­
shiers, bookkeepers, and stock clerks.
Employment of clerical workers is projected to grow
faster than the average rate of employment growth in
each version of the economy. Although office automa­
tion will enable clerical personnel to do more work in
less time and change skill requirements for some jobs,
continued increases in the demand for new workers are
anticipated in most occupations. Demand should be
particularly strong in the private sector, in industries
such as retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate,
legal services, and health services. At the same time,
little increase in government employment of clericals is
projected.
Employment in clerical occupations increased 24.7
percent between 1978 and 1990 in the low-trend version
of the economy. In high-trend I, the projected increase
is 33 percent, and in high-trend II, 26.4 percent. For
clerical workers, demand is slightly less sensitive to the
differences in the low-trend and high-trend I scenarios
than it is for workers in all occupations. For example,
the number of new clerical jobs in high-trend I is 33.8
percent greater than that projected in the low-trend ver­
sion, compared with a difference of 37.8 percent for all
occupations.

Growth among blue-collar groups
Craft and kindred workers. The 11.7 million craftworkers employed in 1978 represented about 12 percent
of total employment. Construction trade workers and
mechanics, the two largest occupational categories in
the craft group, accounted for more than half of the
group’s employment. Other blue-collar categories are
supervisors, metalworking craftworkers, and printing
trades workers. Employment in the craft group is pro­
jected to increase slightly faster than the average rate
for all occupations in each of the scenarios.
In the low-trend version of the economy, employment
in the construction crafts grows from almost 3 million
in 1978 to about 3.7 million in 1990, an increase of 27
percent. However, most of this growth is expected be­
fore 1985. Demand for homeownership that was thwart­
ed during the recession years of 1975 and 1980 should




Operatives. Included in this group are many of the bluecollar workers associated with manufacturing and trans­
portation operations. About 14.2 million operatives
were employed in 1978. More than 80 percent worked
at manufacturing jobs such as assembler, machine tool
operator, welder, and inspector. Outside of manufactur­

38

ing, operatives were concentrated in transportation and
trade. Many were transport equipment operators, such
as track or bus drivers.
Employment of operatives is projected to grow
slower than the average for all occupations in the
1978-90 period. More efficient production as a result of
greater investment in new plants and equipment should
limit increases in the demand for operatives in factories.
However, growth rates for individual occupations will
vary, depending on the particular industries in which
they are employed. Generally, occupations that are con­
centrated in the durable goods sector are projected to
grow faster than those in industries that make
nondurable goods. As family incomes rise, consumers
are expected to spend an increasing proportion of in­
come on automobiles, furniture, and other durable
goods, and a decreasing proportion on nondurables,
such as food and basic clothing.
High-trend alternative I affects the growth of opera­
tives more than that of any other occupational group.
In the low-trend version, operative employment is pro­
jected at 6.4 million in 1990, an increase of 2.2 million
over the 1978 level. The anticipated operative growth in
high-trend I is 3.5 million, or 59.2 percent greater than
the low-trend number. By comparison, the gain in
growth for all occupations is only 37.8 percent. On the
other hand, high-trend alternative II results in only an
8.3-percent greater number of new jobs than the lowtrend version, which is about the same as the percent­
age gain for all occupations under this alternative.
Manufacturing output is much greater in high-trend I
than in the low-trend scenario, which results in a higher
demand for operatives, although the difference in the
employment projections is moderated by the assump­
tion that productivity will also be greater. In contrast,
the dissimilarity in the two high-trend employment pro­
jections for operatives is largely a result of different pro­
jected increases in manufacturing productivity. Between
1978 and 1990, productivity in manufacturing industries
rises 33.7 percent in alternative II compared with 26.3
percent in alternative I. A slightly higher rate of in­
crease in manufacturing output in alternative I also con­
tributes to the difference in the employment projections.

to be such as waiters’ assistants and in health service
occupations, such as nurses’ aides and medical assis­
tants. The greater health care needs of a growing elder­
ly population will spur demand for service workers in
hospitals and nursing homes. The demand for food ser­
vice workers should also grow as incomes rise and more
families have both husbands and wives working. Em­
ployment of police officers, firefighters, and most other
protective service workers is projected to grow slower
than the average for service occupations, but faster than
that for all occupations. Projected growth rates are
mixed among personal service occupations. For exam­
ple, rapid increases in the demand for childcare workers
and welfare service aides are anticipated, but only mod­
erate increases in employment are expected for barbers
and cosmetologists.
Demand for this group of service workers is less sen­
sitive to differences in the three scenarios than for most
other occupational groups. For example, employment in
the high-growth projection I is only 23.7-percent great­
er than employment in the low-growth projection, com­
pared with the 37.8-percent difference for all occupa­
tions. It is assumed that the additional increases in
personal income in the high-trend versions will be spent
primarily on goods rather than on services.
Private household workers. In contrast to the rapid em­
ployment gain anticipated for other service workers, the
number of private household workers is projected to de­
crease from almost 1.2 million in 1978 to between
993,O X and 982,(X ) in 1990. A continued decline is
C)
X
expected, despite an increase,in job opportunities for
private household workers. The demand for maids and
other private household workers should rise as more
women work outside the home and personal incomes
rise, but fewer people will seek employment in private
households because of low wages, lack of advancement
opportunities, and low social status associated with
these jobs.

Farmworkers
More than half of the almost 2,8 million farmworkers
employed in 1978 were farmers, including both owners
and tenant farmers; most of the remainder were farm la­
borers. A small proportion were managers and supervi­
sors. Employment of farmworkers has declined for
decades as farm productivity has risen as a result of
larger, more efficient farms, improvements in mecha­
nized equipment, and technological innovations in seed,
feed, and fertilizer. Continued drops in the number of
farmworkers are expected through the 1980’s. In the
low-trend version, employment falls, from almost 2.8
million in 1978 to 2.2 million in 1990, a decrease of 21
percent. The projected declines are more moderate in

Service workers
Service workers, except private household. Numbering
13.2 million in 1978, these service jobs accounted for
about 13.6 percent of total employment. Employment in
this group is expected to increase faster than in any oth­
er occupational group through the 1980’s in each sce­
nario of the economy. Projected 1978-90 increases
range from 35.5 percent in the low-trend version to 44
percent in high-trend I. Employment growth is expected
to be particularly rapid in food service occupations,




39

jobs in the low-trend version are presented in the list
which follows. In both high-trend alternatives, licensed
practical nurses drop from this list (but remain in the
top 25), and are replaced by carpenters:

the high-trend versions, 12.6 percent in I and 16.3 per­
cent in II. The number of farmers is projected to fall
less rapidly than the number of farm laborers in each
alternative.
D etailed occupations

Table 2 presents 1978-90 employment projections for
all detailed occupations in the industry-occupation ma­
trix with employment of 25,000 or more in 1978.4 Ap­
proximately 340 occupations were in this category, and
they accounted for about three-fourths of total employ­
ment in 1978. Projected rates of employment change for
these selected occupations cover broad ranges in the
three scenarios. For example, low-trend projections run
from a 25.4-percent decline for farm laborers to a
147.6-percent increase for data processing machine me­
chanics. Rankings of occupations by projected growth
rates are very similar for the three scenarios. The fol­
lowing list presents the 20 most rapidly growing de­
tailed occupations among the low-trend projections:

Occupation

Occupation

Janitors and sexton s.................................................
Nurses’ aides and o rd erlies....................................
Sales clerk s.................................................................
Cashiers . . ..................................................................
W aiters/waitresses....................................................
General clerks, o f f ic e .........................................
Professional nurses.............................................
Food preparation and service workers, fast
food restaurants ....................................................
Secretaries . . . ..........................................................
Truckdrivers...............................................................
Kitchen h elp ers..................................................
Elementary schoolteachers .............................
T y p ists..................................................................
Accountants and au ditors................................
Helpers, trades ..................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................
Bookkeepers, h a n d .............................................
Licensed practical nurses ................................
Guards and doorkeepers...................................
Automotive m echan ics.....................................

Percent growth
in employment,
1978-90

Data processing machine m ech a n ics............. .
147.6
Paralegal personnel .............................................
132.4
Computer systems analysts ................................
107.8
Computer op erators....................................................
87.9
Office machine and cash register servicers . . .
80.8
Computer programmers .....................................
73.6
Aero-astronautic engineers..................................
70.4
Food preparation and service workers, fast
food restaurants....................................................
68.8
66.6
Employment interviewers ..................................
Tax preparers ..........................................................
64.5
Correction officials and j a ile r s .................................
A rchitects........................................................
Dental h ygien ists............................................... .
Physical th erap ists......................................................
Dental assistants .........................................................
Peripheral EDP equipment operators ....................
Child-care a tten d an ts.................................................
Veterinarians..........................................................
Travel agents and accomodations appraisers . .
Nurses’ aides and orderlies ......................................

60.3

671.2
594.0
590.7
545.5
531.9
529.8
515.8
491.9
487.8
437.6
300.6
272.8
262.1
254.2
232.5
221.1
219.7
215.6
209.9
205.3

The low-trend version projects employment declines
for 22 of the detailed occupations and high-trend II
projects drops for 21; the rankings by rates of decline
are similar for both scenarios. The number of occupa­
tions with projected employment decreases falls to 18 in
high-trend I. However, the reversals in the direction of
change are not dramatic, and usually make relatively
60.2
little difference in the projected employment levels.

57.9
57.6
57.5
57.3
56.3
56.1
55.6
54.6

N ew date base

The method used by BLS to develop occupational pro­
jections requires two basic inputs—projected employ­
ment by industry at a detailed industry level and
projected occupational staffing patterns at the same in­
dustry detail. The occupational projections prepared by
BLS are obtained by applying the projected occupational
staffing patterns to the related industry employment
projections and summing across the detailed industries.5
The Bureau has used this procedure to develop national
occupational projections since the mid-1960’s.6
During the 1960’s and 1970’s, decennial census data
were the primary data source for developing occupa­
tional staffing patterns of industries. These patterns
were based largely on trends in the census data from
decade to decade. However, because census data are
collected only every 10 years, they were considered in­
adequate for analyzing trends in industry staffing pat­
terns. In the 1970’s, the Bureau initiated the Occupa-

In high-trend alternative I, correction officials and
jailers, dental hygienists, and dental assistants drop off
the list of the 20 fastest growing occupations, and are
replaced by real estate sales agents and representatives,
dental lab technicians, and security sales agents and
representatives. In high-trend II, dental assistants and
travel agents drop off the list and are replaced by real
estate sales agents and representatives, and economists.
However, in both high-trend alternatives the displaced
occupations remain among the 30' fastest growing.
The rank of occupations by growth in numbers; of
jobs also changes little from one scenario to another.
The 20 occupations with the largest numbers of new




Growth in
employment
(in thousands),
1978-90

40

Table 2.

Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990

O
ccupation

Total, all o ccu p ation s...................................................................................................

E ploym (inthousands)
m
ent
1S 0
S
1S 0
S
19S0
L -trend H
ow
igh-trend 1 H
igh-trend II

1978

Percent change, 1978-80
L -trend
ow

H
igh-trend 1 H
igh-trend II

97,610

119,590

127,907

121,447

22.52

31.04

24.42

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..............................................................
E ngineers.......................................................................................................................
Aero-astronautic engineers ..................................................................................
Chemical engineers.................................................................................................
Civil engineers ........................................................................................................
Electrical eng in ee rs.................................................................................................
Industrial e n g in e e rs.................................................................................................
Mechanical engineers ............................................................................................

15,570
1,071
57
53
149
291
109
199

20,038
1,504
98
68
208
441
146
274

21,119
1,624
104
73
218
479
159
300

20,295
1,531
100
70
211
448
148
279

28.70
40.41
70.35
28.92
39.38
51.18
34.03
37.56

35.64
51.61
80.86
37.70
45.59
64.41
46.49
50.67

30.34
42.92
74.81
31.80
40.97
53.90
36.37
40.18

Life and physical scientists .......................................................................................
Biological s cie n tists................................................................................................
Chemists ..................................................................................................................
Geologists ...............................................................................................................
Engineering and science technicians........................................................................
D ra fte rs ....................................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians ...................................................................
Industrial engineering technicians ........................................................................
Mechanical engineering technicians ...................................................................
S urve yo rs..................................................................................................................

236
42
90
33
1,160
293
319
31
45
54

299
51
113
50
1,577
412
464
40
61
73

316
54
120
53
1,700
446
512
44
67
78

304
53
115
51
1,609
419
478
41
62
76

26.44
21.82
24.95
52.08
35.97
40.59
45.42
30.37
35.96
35.19

33.63
28.86
32.19
61.36
46.54
52.25
60.24
41.33
49.67
44.73

28.70
24.98
27.23
52.69
38.73
43.20
49.79
32.09
38.75
39.91

M etfcal workers, except technicians .....................................................................
Dentists ....................................................................................................................
Dietitians ..................................................................................................................
Nurses, professional ..............................................................................................
O ptom etrists.............................................................................................................
P ha rm a cists.............................................................................................................
Physicians, medical and o ste o pa thic...................................................................
Therapists .......... .................................................................................................
Physical th e rap ists..............................................................................................
Speech and hearing clinicians..........................................................................
Veterinarians ...........................................................................................................

2,026
149
41
1,026
25
140
447
139
31
34
30

2,928
208
61
1,542
33
159
626
210
49
52
47

3,094
223
65
1,618
36
171
665
220
52
53
51

2,954
212
62
1,551
33
157
631
213
50
52
50

44.55
39.59
49.69
50.28
29.66
13.36
39.98
51.51
57.63
54.50
56.13

52.77
49.24
58.61
57.69
40.65
22.36
48.70
58.67
66.46
58.29
70.27

45.83
42.37
53.43
51.20
31.20
12.10
41.23
53.19
59.73
55.33
66.11

Health technologists and technicians .....................................................................
Dental assistants......................................................................................................
Dental hygienists......................................................................................................
Health records technologists ...............................................................................
Licensed practical nurses ....................................................................................
Medical technicians.................................................................................................
Medical lab technologists.......................................................................................
Surgical technicians.................................................................................................
X-ray technicians ...................................................................................................

1,246
123
53
30
491
82
98
30
86

1,811
193
84
44
707
119
141
44
126

1,906
198
86
46
752
127
149
46
133

1,820
191
84
44
717
119
141
44
126

45.34
57.48
57.92
47.10
43.89
46.04
43.90
48.13
47.44

52.93
60.95
61.42
53.57
52.98
55.31
52.70
54.63
54.71

46.03
55.91
56.38
47.26
45.96
46.36
44.32
48.00
47.21

Technicians, excluding health, science, and engineering.....................................
Airplane p ilo ts ...........................................................................................................
Air traffic controllers ..............................................................................................
Technical assistants, lib r a r y ..................................................................................
Computer specialists...................................................................................................
Computer programmers .......................................................................................
Computer systems a n a ly s ts ..................................................................................
Social scientists ...........................................................................................................
E conom ists...............................................................................................................
Psychologists . . , ! .................................................................................................

271
74
28
34
389
204
185
176
27
78

343
94
34
48
738
354
384
243
41
107

362
101
34
49
793
381
412
256
43
111

347
96
34
48
754
361
392
248
42
109

26.82
27.00
21.67
42.07
89.83
73.57
107.75
38.12
54.17
36.79

33.78
35.47
24.18
42.78
104.05
86.90
122.97
45.51
62.93
42.69

28.11
28.81
21.93
41.71
93.94
77.22
112.38
41.26
56.30
39.31

T e a c h e rs .......................................................................................................................
Adult education te a c h e rs .......................................................................................
College and university teachers ................................ ..........................................
Teachers, vocational education and training .................................................
Teachers, college ..............................................................................................
Graduate assistan ts............................................................................................
Elementary schoolteachers ..................................................................................
Preschool and kindergarten teachers ................................................................
Secondary schoolteachers....................................................................................

3,877
105
618
26
454
131
1,277
455
1,229

4,079
123
557
33
409
110
1,550
574
1,071

4,113
126
560
34
410
110
1,556
579
1,075

4,074
124
556
33
408
109
1,546
572
1,068

5.22
18.02
-9 .7 8
26.49
-1 0 .0 6
-1 6 .4 5
21.37
26.16
-1 2 .8 7

6.09
20.75
-9 .3 0
30.29
-9 .7 2
-1 6 .1 3
21.82
27.31
-1 2 .5 4

5.08
18.31
-9 .9 7
26.85
-1 0 .2 8
-1 6 .6 5
21.08
25.75
-1 3 .0 8

Selected writers, artists, and e n te rta in e rs..............................................................
Commeraal artists .................................................................................................
D esigners..................................................................................................................
Musicians, instrumental .........................................................................................
Photographers ........................................................................................................
Public relations sp e cia lists....................................................................................
Radio and TV a n n o u n c e rs....................................................................................
Reporters and correspondents.............................................................................
Sports instructors ...................................................................................................
Writers and editors .................................................................................................

888
100
169
126
77
81
46
54
34
109

1,117
122
194
160
104
102
66
68
41
142

1,198
134
212
166
113
109
68
74
43
155

1,134
126
190
166
104
104
66
70
41
146

25.78
22.25
15.22
27.15
35.95
26.06
43.02
27.59
20.16
30.33

34.93
33.97
25.49
31.73
47.21
34.81
48.74
37.44
26.64
41.59

27.75
26.58
12.87
31.67
35.30
29.15
43.35
31.25
20.56
34.03

Other professional and technical w o rk e rs ..............................................................
Accountants and auditors ....................................................................................
Appraisers, real estate .........................................................................................
A rc h ite cts..................................................................................................................
Assessors ................................................................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale trade .....................................................................
Caseworkers ...........................................................................................................
Clergy .......................................................................................................................
Community organization workers ........................................................................
Cost estimators ......................................................................................................
Directors, religious education and activities ......................................................
Employment interviews .........................................................................................

4,183
777
32
66
30
238
236
287
49
80
36
51

5,338
1,031
47
106
38
296
338
292
71
105
37
86

5,692
1,107
50
112
38
320
350
313
74
112
40
95

5,457
1,055
48
109
38
298
3^6
301
73
108
38
88

27.61
32.72
46.38
60.20
28.03
24.37
43.32
1.67
46.74
31.80
3.29
66.59

36.07
42.50
56.88
70.18
30.27
34.15
48.42
9.19
51.38
40.84
11.13
85.55

30.46
35.83
49.79
64.53
28.26
25.13
46.57
5.12
49.76
34.94
6.96
72.02




41

T ab le 2.

Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and p ro je c te d 1990
E m ploym ent

O
ccupation

1980
L -trend
ow

1978

(inthousands)

Percent change, 1973-80

18S0
H
igh-trend I H
igh-trend I
I

L -trend
ow

H
igh-trend 1 H
igh-trend I
I

F o re s te rs ..................................................................................................................
Law clerks ...............................................................................................................
L a w y e rs ....................................................................................................................
Paralegal personnel ..............................................................................................
L ib ra ria n s..................................................................................................................
Personnel anr lbor relations sp e cialists...........................................................
Purchasing agents and buyers .............................................................................
Recreation woi kers, g ro u p ....................................................................................
Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue a g e n ts ...............................................
Tax p re p a re rs..........................................................................................................
Travel agents and accommodations a p p ra is e rs ...............................................
U nderw riters.............................................................................................................
Vocational and educational co u n s e lo rs ..............................................................

26
30
380
28
130
169
164
121
50
29
45
70
202

32
43
524
66
139
205
200
152
60
47
70
90
212

34
48
580
75
142
217
214
160
61
54
74
93
215

33
44
543
69
140
208
202
157
60
51
70
90
213

22.15
44.04
37.85
132.35
6.78
21.08
21.96
26.41
19.39
64.52
55.64
28.40
4.66

27.33
62.47
52.71
165.68
8.76
28.21
30.69
32.63
21.65
87.75
65.46
33.86
6.29

25.25
49.85
43.05
142.99
7.12
22.86
23.69
29.99
19.61
77.93
56.08
28.98
5.27

Managers, officials, and proprietors ........................................................................
Auto parts department m a na g e rs........................................................................
Auto service department managers ...................................................................
Construction inspectors, public administration .................................................
Inspectors, excluding construction, public adm inistration................................
Postmasters and mail superintendents ......................................................
.
Railroad conductors ..............................................................................................
Restaurant, cafe, and bar m a na g e rs...................................................................
Sales managers, retail trade ...............................................................................
Store managers ......................................................................................................
W h o le sa le rs.............................................................................................................

8,802
48
60
44
104
28
33
499
261
926
234

10,484
54
69
61
125
29
31
642
323
1,102
279

11,257
59
75
62
128
30
34
680
351
1,183
307

10,677
59
75
61
125
29
32
650
323
1,107
284

19.10
13.20
15.02
37.37
20.58
4.07
-6 .6 3
28.65
24.14
18.95
19.60

27.89
23.01
24.97
39.81
22.88
7.92
2.93
36.25
34.83
27.76
31.35

21.31
23.28
25.46
37.62
20.82
4.84
-5 .5 2
30.27
23.93
19.52
21.42

S ale sw o rke rs................................................................ ..............................................
Real estate b ro ke rs................................................................................................
Sales agents and representatives, real e s ta te .................................................
Sales agents and representatives, in su ra n ce ....................................................
Sales agents and representatives, security ......................................................
S a le s c le rk s .............................................................................................................

6,443
34
255
310
55
2,771

7,989
48
394
399
80
3,362

8,632
52
430
420
92
3,601

8,079
49
400
405
88
3,362

23.99
42.34
54.09
28.61
45.79
21.32

33.97
55.92
68.42
35.66
66.81
29.96

25.40
44.47
56.74
30.81
60.70
21.32

Clerical w o rk e rs ..........................................................................................................
Adjustment c le r k s ...................................................................................................
Bank tellers .............................................................................................................
New accounts te lle rs .........................................................................................
Tellers ..................................................................................................................
Bookkeepers and accounting c le r k s ...................................................................
Accounting clerks ..............................................................................................
Bookkeepers, hand ............................................................................................
C a sh iers....................................................................................................................
Claims a d ju s te rs ......................................................................................................
Claims clerks ..........................................................................................................
Claims examiners, insurance ...............................................................................
Clerical supervisors................................................................................................
Collectors, bill and account ..................................................................................
Credit clerks, banking and insurance ............ ...................................................
Desk clerks, except bowling f lo o r ........................................................................
Dispatchers, police, fire, and a m b u la n c e ...........................................................
Dispatchers, vehicle service or w o r k ...................................................................
Eligibility workers, welfare ....................................................................................
File clerks ...............................................................................................................
General clerks, office ............................................................................................
Insurance clerks, m e dic al......................................................................................
Library assistants ...................................................................................................
Mail carriers, postal s e rv ic e ..................................................................................
Mail clerks ...............................................................................................................
Marking clerks, tra d e ..............................................................................................
Messengers .............................................................................................................
Meter readers, u tilitie s ............................................................................................

17,820
37
440
48
392
1,628
700
927
1,501
65
63
38
402
85
47
75
46
89
30
251
2,269
63
117
237
75
44
47
28

22,219
45
601
65
536
1,982
835
1,147
2,046
95
92
58
518
108
62
97
60
108
38
328
2,799
93
128
260
94
54
60
32

23,705
48
619
67
552
2,131
895
1,236
. 2,165
98
96
59
552
119
68
109
61
116
39
349
3,002
97
129
270
99
57
64
38

22,519
46
606
66
540
2,014
845
1,168
2,070
95
93
58
526
113
66
98
60
107
39
332
2,839
92
128
262
96
55
61
32

24.69
23.89
36.40
34.65
36.62
21.79
19.27
23.69
36.35
46.63
47.26
51.53
29.01
26.52
31.00
29.27
28.22
21.58
29.67
30.77
23.35
46.69
8.77
9.77
25.19
21.24
28.24
14.64

33.03
29.83
40.61
39.23
40.78
30.95
27.82
33.32
44.27
51.65
52.78
54.74
37.45
39.53
43.91
46.09
30.47
29.62
32.16
39.31
32.28
53.95
9.98
13.83
31.61
27.88
37.38
33.57

26.37
24.57
37.51
36.57
37.62
23.72
20.74
25.96
37.96
47.21
48.08
52.29
30.81
32.26
39.79
30.91
28.45
20.55
30.28
32.42
25.11
45.77
8.74
10.58
27.50
23.46
31.97
15.04

Office machine o pe ra to rs.......................................................................................
Bookkeeping and billing o pe ra to rs...................................................................
Bookkeeping, billing machine o p e ra to rs ....................................................
Proof machine operators .............................................................................
Computer, peripheral equipment operators .................................................
Computer o p e ra to rs.......................................................................................
Peripheral EDP equipment o p e ra to rs .........................................................
Duplicating machine operators ........................................................................
Keypunch operators .........................................................................................

842
218
166
44
215
169
46
31
295

1,133
283
212
60
389
317
72
38
316

1,211
301
228
61
415
338
76
41
341

1,147
283
212
59
397
323
73
39
321

34.52
29.84
27.72
37.07
81.32
87.90
57.26
22.46
7.03

43.85
37.92
37.57
39.56
93.19
100.74
65.55
31.01
15.56

36.21
29.41
27.63
35.56
84.73
91.71
59.15
24.56
8.78

Order c le r k s .............................................................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s .............................................................................
Personnel c le r k s ......................................................................................................
Postal c le rk s .............................................................. ..............................................
Procurement c le r k s .................................................................................................
Production clerks ...................................................................................................
Raters ........................... ...........................................................................................
Receptionists ...........................................................................................................
Reservation a g e n ts ................................................................................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts ..............................................................
S ec re ta ries...........................................................................................................
Stenographers ........................................................................................................
T y p is ts .......................................................................................................................

240
172
90
310
39
192
51
369
52
3,574
2,319
262
993

289
211
309
46
234
63
505
55
4,383
2,807
322
1,255

316
226
118
321
50
257
66
540
59
4,678
3,007
341
1,330

288
214
113
312
47
238
64
511
56
4,458
2,860
326
1,271

20.25
22.13
23.40
- .2 8
19.53
22.33
23.56
37.00
6.64
22.65
21.03
22.76
26.40

31.49
31.01
30.14
3.41
28.38
34.03
28.73
46.36
13.57
30.89
29.64
30.20
33.98

19.88
24.08
24.79
.46
20.72
24.48
24.14
38.57
7.48
24.72
23.31
24.46
28.09

Shipping and receiving c le rk s ....................................................................................

378

448

488

452

18.52

28.92

19.38




111

42

Table

2.

Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990

O
ccupation

1978

E ploym (inthousands)
m
ent
1030
1S80
1930
igh-trend I
I
L -trend H
ow
igh-trend 1 H

Percent change, 1978-90
L -trend
ow

H
igh-trend 1 H
igh-trend I
I

276
497
376
218
113
40
51
33
42

431
45
101
1,043
52
298
500
414
234
128
45
54
34
45

401
44
96
977
49
282
495
382
222
114
40
51
33
42

17.10
45.76
16.85
22.44
17.84
25.96
23.00
20.60
27.65
11.24
13.47
3.75
28.55
17.92

26.90
49.57
24.09
32.47
27.72
36.08
23.79
32.58
37.18
26.08
28.59
10.11
30.80
26.90

17.99
45.81
18.23
24.16
21.46
28.71
22.59
22.54
30.05
12.62
14.85
4.61
28.78
19.15

11,679
2,950
144
979
50
25
113
92
51
30
516
35
363
375
99
67

14,366
3,747
204
1,183
65
35
152
125
70
42
678
48
436
492
130
90

15,555
4,037
220
1,274
72
38
164
135
76
46
726
51
477
526
139
95

14,668
3,841
211
1,228
67
36
157
128
72
43
693
49
429
504
133
92

23.01
27.04
41.71
20.82
29.41
36.88
34.61
35.46
39.20
40.68
31.44
35.53
20.02
31.06
31.05
33.07

33.19
36.85
52.76
30.17
43.35
50.70
44.96
46.23
50.46
51.68
40.77
44.62
31.27
40.04
40.91
40.57

25.60
30.24
46.35
25.46
33.48
41.16
38.82
38.99
43.19
43.66
34.33
40.02
18.25
34.40
35.03
36.37

Mechanics, repairers, and installers ........................................................................
Air conditioning, heating, and refrigerator mechanics .....................................
Aircraft mechanics ................................................................................................
Auto body repairers ..............................................................................................
Automotive m echanics............................................................................................
Coin machine servicers and re p a ire rs ................................................................
Data processing machine mechanics ................................................................
Diesel mechanics ...................................................................................................
Electric power line installers and repairers ......................................................
Cable s p lic e rs ......................................................................................................
Line installers and re p a ire rs .............................................................................

3,758
165
97
154
847
27
63
166
157
40
110

4,764
213
125
189
1,052
29
156
214
189
48
133

5,157
230
133
201
1,124
31
172
227
215
54
151

4,863
216
126
193
1,082
25
162
214
192
48
136

26.77
29.04
28.32
22.67
24.25
9.53
147.62
29.29
20.33
18.54
21.30

37.24
39.10
36.20
30.40
32.71
16.43
173.02
37.24
36.48
34.14
37.45

29.40
30.65
29.47
25.13
27.77
-7 .7 9
157.14
29.36
22.12
19.99
23.24

Engineering equipment mechanics .....................................................................
Gas and electric appliance re p a ire rs...................................................................
Instrument repairers ..............................................................................................
Maintenance mechanics .......................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general utility ................................................................
Millwrights ................................................................................................................
Office machine and cash register s e rv ic e rs ......................................................
Radio and television repairers .............................................................................
Railroad car repairers ............................................................................................
Telephone installers and repairers .....................................................................
Central office repairers ....................................................................................
Installers, repairers, and section maintainers ...............................................
Station installers .................................................................................................

86
57
36
346
626
93
49
81
30
228
47
69
55

104
70
42
411
785
108
89
112
24
273
56
83
65

112
78
45
439
846
114
96
122
27
310
63
94
74

107
70
42
418
795
109
91
117
25
277
57
84

66

20.83
21.39
14.62
18.83
25.52
15.47
80.78
37.56
-18.81
20.21
19.40
20.36
19.62

30.45
35.29
24.03
27.06
35.18
22.39
96.24
49.60
-1 0 .4 7
36.29
35.31
36.34
35.61

24.90
21.24
15.79
21.10
27.01
16.79
86.69
44.10
-1 7 .8 5
21.85
20.86
22.01
21.11

Metalworking craftworkers, except m ech an ics.................................................
B oilerm akers................................ .......................................................................
Heat treaters, annealers, and te m p e re rs .......................................................
Machine tool setters, m e ta lw orkin g ................................................................
M achinists.............................................................................................................
Sheet metal workers and tin s m ith s ................................................................
Tool and die makers .........................................................................................

909
42
25
57
272
205
166

1,081
52
29

1,192
57
32
74
358
280
221

1,106
54
30
67
331
267
197

18.96
25.56
16.06
16.10
18.82
27.57
15.96

31.11
36.70
25.79
29.85
31.66
36.95
33.10

21.69
30.12
16.70
18.52
21.95
30.63
18.79

Printing trades c ra ftw o rk e rs ..................................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ........................... ..............................................
Press and plate p rin te rs ....................................................................................
Letter press operators ..................................................................................
Offset lithographic press operators ...........................................................
Press operators and plate printers ...........................................................

386
123
168
36
75
35

442
121
197
39
92
41

476
130
211
42
99

458
124
204
40
96
42

14.72
-1 .9 2
17.42
8.99
22.55
16.10

43.55
5.96
25.92
17.88
31.91
21.82

18.72
1.03
21.68
13.64
27.61
17.87

Other crafts and related workers ........................................................................
B a k e r s ..................................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors ........................................................................
Cabinetmakers ...................................................................................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist o p e ra to rs ................................................................
Dental lab technicians .......................................................................................
Furniture upholsterers .......................................................................................
Heavy equipment o p e ra to rs .............................................................................
Inspectors.............................................................................................................
Jewelers and silversmiths ...............................................................................
Merchandise displayers and window trim m e rs .............................................
Opticians .............................................................................................................
Sewage plant o p e ra to rs....................................................................................
Stationary engineers .........................................................................................

3,677
60
1,274
72
126
48
30
431
475
29
26
30

4,332
72
1,495
89
146
69
38
546
544
32
31
42
43
68

4,693
76
1,616
95
157
79
43
598
595
35

4,400
74
1,520

17.82
20.11
17.36
22.96
15.72
44.91
27.31
26.57
14.70
10.74
17.84
38.61
15.01
13.48

27.64
27.22
26.87
31.00
23.73
67.04
41.84
38.65
25.43
21.54
26.30
50.56
18.28
19.89

19.67
22.97
19.33
21.36
17.75
48.65
31.43
29.83
16.73
7.24
20.68
34.65
15.26
14.40

Shipping packers ........................................................................................................
Statement clerks ........................................................................................................
Statistical c le r k s ...........................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..............................................................
Survey workers ..........................................................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists .....................................................................
Teacher’s aides, except m o n ito rs.............................................................................
Telephone o pe ra to rs...................................................................................................
Switchboard operators .........................................................................................
Central office o p e ra to rs.........................................................................................
Directory assistance o p e ra to rs.............................................................................
Ticket a g e n ts ...............................................................................................................
Town c le r k s ..................................................................................................................
W e ig h e rs .......................................................................................................................

787

398
44
95
964

40
219
404
312
171
101
35
49
26
35

Crafts and related w o rk e rs ............................................................................................
Construction craftworkers .........................................................................................
B rickm asons.............................................................................................................
C a rp e n te rs...............................................................................................................
Carpet cutters and layers ....................................................................................
Ceiling tile installers and floor la y e rs ...................................................................
Concrete and terrazzo finishers ..........................................................................
Dry wall installers and lathers .............................................................................
Dry wall a p p lica to rs............................................................................................
T a p e r s ..................................................................................................................
E lectricians...............................................................................................................
G la z ie rs ....................................................................................................................
Painters, construction and maintenance ...........................................................
Plumbers and pipefitters .......................................................................................
Roofers ....................................................................................................................
Structural steel w o rk e rs .........................................................................................




340
30
81

38

60

43

48

66

323
261
192

43

33

46
45
72

88

149
71
39
560
554
31
32
41
43
68

Tab!© 2.

C ontinued— Civilian em ploym ent in o ccu pa tion s'w ith 25,000 w orkers o r more, actual 197§ and pro je cte d 1990

E ploym (inthousands)
m
ent
O
ccupation

1990
L -trend
ow

1978

Percent change, 1978-80

1880
H
igh-trend 1 H
igh-trend I
I

L -trend
ow

igh-trend I
I
H
igh-trend I H

Tailors ..................................................................................................................
T e s te rs ..................................................................................................................
Water treatment plant o p e ra to rs .....................................................................

66
105
27

75
120
32

83
130
33

77
122
32

14.34
14.55
15.98

25.05
23.83
21.15

16.75
16.48
16.30

O p e ra tive s....................................................................................................................
Assemblers .............................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic a sse m b le rs..............................................................
Electro-mechanical equipment assemblers .................................................
Machine assemblers .........................................................................................
Bindery operatives .................................................................................................
Bindery workers, asse m b ly...............................................................................
Laundering, drycleaning, and pressing machine operators ...........................
Laundry operators, small establishm ent.........................................................
Pressers:
Hand ................................................................................................................
Machine ..........................................................................................................
Machine, laundry ............................................................................................
Washers, machine and starchers ...................................................................

14,205
1,672
207
53
100
81
41
316
34

16,399
1,997
278
69
124
86
43
356
48

17,697
2,192
305
78
144
94
47
404
53

16,584
2,029
281
71
127
90
45
375
49

15.44
19.44
34.24
29.89
24.76
6.57
6.64
12.48
39.62

24.58
31.07
47.30
46.37
44.67
15.63
15.99
27.76
56.00

16.75
2-1.33
36.07
32.13
27.48
10.72
10.95
18.68
44.80

30
54
66
56

32
56
74
79

36
65
84
87

33
59
78
82

7.18
2.41
11.76
41.42

19.30
18.80
26.65
55.69

10.79
8.76
18.08
47.19

Metalworking operatives .......................................................................................
Drill press and boring machine o pe ra to rs......................................................
Electroplaters ......................................................................................................
Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal ........................................
Lathe machine operators, metal .....................................................................
Machine tool operators:
Combination ...................................................................................................
Numerical c o n tro l...........................................................................................
Tool r o o m ........................................................................................................
Milling and planing machine o p e ra to rs...........................................................
Power brake and bending machine operators, metal ................................
Punch press operators, m e ta l..........................................................................
Welders and flamecutters ...............................................................................

1,650
123
35
131
153

1,970
148
44
154
186

2,211
167
48
173
210

2,025
151
45
157
191

19.38
19.57
24.38
17.43
22.03

33.97
35.39
34.56
32.37
37.69

22.71
22.60
27.29
20.01
25.29

170
49
40
68
41
195
570

200
61
46
83
48
217
696

226
70
52
95
54
240
784

208
63
47
86
49
222
720

17.91
24.18
15.31
21.58
19.01
11.25
22.14

33.43
41.49
31.63
39.59
32.29
23.05
37.60

21.47
27.45
17.99
25.21
21.31
13.80
26.45

Mine operatives, not elsewhere classified .........................................................
Roustabouts ........................................................................................................
Packing and inspecting operatives .....................................................................
Baggers ...............................................................................................................
Production packagers .......................................................................................
Selectors, glasswares .......................................................................................
Painters, manufactured articles ..........................................................................
Painters, automotive .........................................................................................
Painters, p ro d u ctio n ............................................................................................
Sewers and s titch e rs..............................................................................................
Sewing machine operators:
Regular equipment, g a rm e n t........................................................................
Special equipment, g a rm e n t........................................................................
Regular equipment, n o n g a rm e n t................................................................
Special equipment, nongarment ................................................................

170
61
906
215
612
.32
166
40
113
919

239
81
981
238
661
35
205
56
132
967

259
85
1,041
250
704
35
222
59
145
1,065

243
79
993
242
669
33
206
55
134
987

41.00
31.42
8.30
10.64
7.94
8.84
23.42
40.04
17.34
5.25

52.69
37.94
14.93
16.32
15.08
10.93
33.46
45.98
29.04
15.93

43.44
29.43
9.67
12.75
9.35
3.75
24.05
37.34
19.02
7.39

616
89
144
40

634
96
161
45

702
108
175
49

647
98
164
46

2.96
8.61
12.08
13.10

14.02
19.98
21.22
21.74

5.15
11.00
13.58
14.41

Textile operatives ...................................................................................................
Folders, hand ......................................................................................................
Spinners, fra m e ...................................................................................................
W e a v e rs...............................................................................................................
Transport equipment o p e ra tiv e s ..........................................................................
Ambulance drivers and attendants ................................................................
Busdrivers ..........................................................................................................
Chauffeurs ..........................................................................................................
Delivery and route workers .............................................................................
Industrial truck o p e ra to rs ..................................................................................
Parking a ttendants..............................................................................................
Railroad brake o p e ra to rs .................................................................................
Taxi d riv e rs ..........................................................................................................
Truckdrivers ........................................................................................................

394
27
31
37
3,468
28
266
39
802
408
37
74
79
1,672

399
29
32
33
4,152
41
326
48
916
459
44
67
69
2,110

419
32
32
33
4,428
42
329
52
991
493
51
73
78
2,246

396
30
31
32
4,140
40
321
48
901
464
58
68
72
2,102

1.36
8.64
1.38
-1 1 .1 8
19.70
45.30
22.49
24.63
14.28
12.50
21.56
-1 0 .2 7
-1 2 .5 9
26.16

6.53
19.29
4.18
-8 .8 5
27.68
48.79
23.76
34.13
23.52
20.69
40.23
-1 .2 6
- .8 7
34.30

.58
9.13
- .5 7
-1 1 .4 5
19.35
40.86
20.65
24.76
12.33
13.60
58.07
-9 .0 8
-8 .9 8
25.69

All other o p e ra tive s................................................................................................
Asbestos and insulation w o rk e rs .....................................................................
Cutters, m a c h in e ................................................................................................
Dressmakers, except factory ..........................................................................
Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers ...........................................................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators ...........................................................
Furnace operators and tenders, except metal ............................................
Stationary boiler firers ..................................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives:
Lumber and furniture ....................................................................................
Chemicals and allied products ...................................................................
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics ...........................................................

4,311
42
29
53
127
434
62
47

4,882
58
32
49
151
475
65
51

5,189
62
34
53
168
492
67
53

4,936
60
32
50
155
481
65
51

13.25
37.75
9.86
-8 .3 3
19.56
9.51
4.97
6.80

20.38
47.32
16.86
- .5 4
33.04
13.40
9.15
10.99

14.52
41.52
11.83
-5.4 1
22.66
10.96
4.98
7.13

51
153
229

59
167
284

60
176
292

56
172
282

16.21
9.13
23.99

18.45
15.20
27.67

9.74
12.82
23.40

103
249
53
40
66
31
32
68
48

123
257
51
48
81
42
37
54
68

128
275
55
52
89
45
40
59
70

123
258
52
49
81
42
38
55
68

19.27
3.11
-2 .3 6
19.52
22.68
34.02
15.46
-1 9 .9 8
39.92

24.60
10.46
4.32
30.02
34.55
41.28
26.45
-1 3 .0 7
45.20

18.90
3.69
-1.3 1
21.65
22.40
32.91
17.92
-1 9 .2 4
41.45

Miscellaneous operatives, not elsewhere classified:
Durable g o o d s ................................................................................................
Nondurable goods .........................................................................................
Mixing operatives................................................................................................
O ile r s ....................................................................................................................
Photographic process workers ........................................................................
Rotary drill operator h e lp e rs .............................................................................
Shear and slitter operators, m e ta l...................................................................
Shoemaking machine operators .....................................................................
Surveyor h e lp e rs .................................................................................................




44

Table 2.

Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990

O
ccupation

E ploym (inthousands)
m
ent
1890
1880
1890
L -trend H
ow
igh-trend 1 H
igh-trend I
I

1978

Percent change, 1978-80
L -trend
ow

H
igh-trend 1 H
igh-trend I
I

Tire changers and re p a ire rs .............................................................................
Winding operatives, not elsewhere classified ...............................................
Coil winders ...................................................................................................
Wirers, electronic ..............................................................................................
Wood m achinists.................................................................................................

60
48
29
28
27

71
58
37
35
33

77
62
40
38
34

73
59
38
36
32

17.47
21.91
27.30
24.46
23.67

27.18
30.43
39.55
36.15
27.82

20.94
24.02
30.02
28.08
22.10

Service w o rk e rs ..........................................................................................................
Food service workers ............................................................................................
Bakers, bread and p a s try ..................................................................................
Bartenders ..........................................................................................................
Butchers and meat c u tte rs ...............................................................................
Cooks, except private household ...................................................................
Cooks, institutional.........................................................................................
Cooks, restaurant .........................................................................................
Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ............................................
Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurant ....................
Hosts/hostesses, restaurant, lounge, coffee shop .....................................
Kitchen h e lp e rs ...................................................................................................
Pantry, sandwich, and coffee makers ...........................................................
W aiters/waitresses ............................................................................................
Waiters’ assistants..............................................................................................

14,414
5,610
45
347
178
1,024
296
320
408
714
104
771
64
1,539
252

18,946
7,774
57
453
212
1,367
370
445
552
1,206
154
1,072
92
2,071
363

20,074
8,192
59
480
225
1,438
386
471
580
1,265
163
1,131
97
2,186
384

19,220
7,827
57
457
214
1,379
378
448
554
1,210
155
1,084
92
2,084
366

31.44
38.57
27.08
30.35
18.64
33.50
25.19
39.18
35.07
68.84
48.61
38.98
43.07
34.56
43.72

39.27
46.02
33.19
38.05
25.84
40.48
30.68
47.43
42.13
77.10
57.14
46.74
51.80
42.09
52.20

33.34
39.53
27.91
31.64
19.90
34.74
27.69
40.12
35.63
69.37
49.05
40.53
43.28
35.43
45.03

Janitors and s e x to n s ..............................................................................................
Selected health service w o rk e rs ..........................................................................
Medical a ssista n ts..............................................................................................
Nurses’ aides and orderlies .............................................................................
Psychiatric a id e s ............ ....................................................................................
Selected personal service w o rk e rs .....................................................................
Barbers ................................................................................................................
Child-care atte n d an ts.........................................................................................
Child-care workers ..................................................................... ..................
Cosmetologists and womens’ hair stylists ....................................................
Elevator o p e ra to rs..............................................................................................
Flight attendants .................................................................................................
Game and ride operators and concession w o rk e rs .....................................
Housekeepers, hotel and motel .....................................................................
Recreation facility attendants ..........................................................................
Reducing instructors .........................................................................................
School monitors .................................................................................................
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket ta k e r s ..................................................
Welfare service aides .......................................................................................

2,585
1,251
81
1,089
77
1,547
114
35
398
434
45
51
28
49
65
26
37
40
84

3,257
1,921
116
1,683
115
2,028
142
55
581
530
59
64
37
67
83
29
38
46
126

3,504
2,051
123
1,801
120
2,206
160
60
615
603
64
68
38
74
85
35
38
46
132

3,317
1,963
116
1,725
116
2,108
149
59
600
566
60
65
36
69
82
32
38
46
130

25.96
53.53
44.20
54.56
49.50
31.08
23.90
56.26
46.10
22.22
30.70
26.82
33.10
35.70
28.33
12.22
3.03
15.44
51.15

35.52
63.93
52.27
65.40
56.20
42.56
40.06
67.85
54.55
38.89
40.89
34.56
35.85
50.95
31.02
35.84
3.41
14.50
57.25

28.30
56.90
43.52
58.43
49.86
36.20
30.14
66.53
50.76
30.43
32.30
27.75
29.47
39.86
27.63
25.21
2.78
13.87
55.24

Protective service w o rk e rs ....................................................................................
Correction officials and ja ile rs ..........................................................................
Crossing or bridge te n d e rs ...............................................................................
Crossing guards, s c h o o l....................................................................................
Firefighters ..........................................................................................................
Fire o ffic e rs..........................................................................................................
Guards and d o o rke e p e rs.............................. ...............................................
Police d e te ctive s.................................................................................................
Police o ffic e rs ......................................................................................................
Police p a trolm e n /w o m en ..................................................................................
Private household w o rk e rs ....................................................................................
Child-care workers, private h ousehold...........................................................
Housekeepers, private h o u se h o ld ...................................................................
Maids and servants, private household ................. .......................................
Supervisors, nonworking, service ........................................................................
All other service w o rk e rs .......................................................................................

1,586
95
27
38
200
46
591
59
94
358
1,160
486
118
530
189
484

2,098
152
32
48
256
59
801
72
119
459
982
412
100
449
254
633

2,189
154
33
49
260
60
868
74
121
467
993
417
101
455
270
670

2,120
152
32
49
256
59
820
72
119
460
988
414
100
452
256
640

32.28
60.28
18.07
28.55
27.62
28.56
35.52
23.08
26.68
28.02
-15.41
-1 5 .3 2
-1 5 .4 0
-1 5 .2 0
34.12
30.76

38.02
63.08
20.76
30.81
29.88
30.81
46.80
25.33
28.93
30.26
-1 4 .3 9
-1 4 .2 9
-1 4 .3 9
-1 4 .1 9
42.27
38.33

33.71
60.55
18.21
28.79
27.86
28.79
38.73
23.30
26.91
28.25
-1 4 .8 7
-1 4 .7 8
-1 4 .8 6
-1 4 .6 7
35.10
32.29

Laborers, except fa r m .................................................................................................
Animal c a re ta k e rs ..............................................................................................
Construction laborers, excluding carpenter h e lp e rs.....................................
Highway maintenance workers ...................................................................
P ip e la yers........................................................................................................
Reinforcing-iron w o rk e rs ...............................................................................
Cannery w o rk e rs .................................................................................................
Cleaners, ve h icle .................................................................................................
Conveyor operators and tenders ...................................................................
Garbage collectors ............................................................................................
Gardeners and groundkeepers, except farm ...............................................
Helpers, tr a d e s ...................................................................................................
Line service attendants ....................................................................................
O ff-b e a re rs...........................................................................................................
R ig ge rs..................................................................................................................
Stock handlers ...................................................................................................
Order fille rs ......................................................................................................
Stock clerks, sales f lo o r ...............................................................................
Timbercutting and logging workers ................................................................
Fallers and b u c k e rs .......................................................................................

5,902
88
277
170
43
31
82
118
55
110
639
928
27
25
28
918
352
566
70
43

6,955
113
348
211
54
42
80
150
62
137
738
1,161
32
28
33
1,131
407
724
59
36

7,441
122
365
215
60
45
84
159
68
148
789
1,255
34
28
35
1,210
445
766
63
38

7,078
124
352
212
55
43
89
160
63
137
765
1,193
32
26
34
1,137
405
731
61
37

17.83
27.63
25.74
24.44
25.48
34.50
-2 .5 3
27.04
13.82
24.37
15.58
25.04
17.74
9.73
16.99
23.18
15.52
27.95
-1 5 .9 6
-1 6 .6 0

26.07
38.19
31.67
26.61
38.32
41.55
3.18
35.07
23.96
34.39
23.50
35.20
25.49
10.76
24.70
31.82
26.18
35.34
-1 0 .9 0
-11.51

19.92
40.57
27.01
24.66
27.80
37.99
8.85
35.76
15.65
24.34
19.71
28.49
18.61
3.94
19.58
23.82
15.08
29.26
-1 3 .5 8
-1 4 .1 8

Farmers and fa rm w o rk e rs.........................................................................................
Farmers and farm m a n a g e rs ...............................................................................
Farmers (owners and tenants) ........................................................................
Farm m anagers.................................................................................... ..............
Farm supervisors and la b o re rs .............................................................................
Farm supervisors.................................................................................................
Farm la b o re rs ......................................................................................................

2,775
1,486
1,445
41
1,289
32
1,257

2,193
1,231
1,200
31
963
25
938

2,426
1,355
1,321
34
1,071
28
1,044

2,327
1,281
1,248
34
1,046
27
1,019

-2 0 .9 7
-1 7 .1 8
-1 6 .9 6
-2 5 .0 2
-2 5 .3 5
-2 2 .4 0
-2 5 .4 2

-1 2 .5 7
-8.81
-8.6 1
-1 5 .7 8
-1 6 .9 0
-1 3 .0 0
-1 7 .0 0

-1 6 .1 3
-1 3 .7 6
-1 3 .6 5
-1 7 .6 5
-1 8 .8 7
-1 4 .2 5
-1 8 .9 9




45

mated 90 percent of total employment in an occupation,
the data were collapsed into residual categories in the
matrix. (About 400 occupations were treated in this
manner.) If the survey accounted for more than an esti­
mated 90 percent of an occupation’s employment, the
remainder was estimated on the basis of patterns from
the census-based matrix. Estimates of employment in
selected industries for about 200 occupations were de­
veloped through this procedure, but the sum of these
estimates accounted for less than 4 percent of total na­
tional employment.
The OES surveys do not cover self-employed workers
and unpaid family workers. Occupational employment
estimates for these classes of workers also were devel­
oped from CPS and census-based matrix data and reclassi
fied into the OES occupational framework. However, be­
cause of data limitations and resource constraints the
occupational estimates for self-employed and unpaid
family workers were not distributed across industries.
Consequently, industry/occupation cross-tabulations are
available only for wage-and-salary employment. To de­
velop total employment estimates by occupation, em­
ployment of wage-and-salary workers was added to
totals of self-employed and unpaid family workers.
Detailed occupational employment estimates in the
OES survey-based matrix for 1978-90 generally are not
comparable with those in previous census-based matri­
ces because of many major differences in the underlying
data sources. The census counts persons, whereas the
OES survey counts jobs. The employment total in the
OES matrix is higher than the total in the census matrix,
because one person may hold more than one job. The
difference between the numbers of jobs and of persons
employed in 1978 was roughly 10 percent, but it varied
among occupations. The census is a household survey,
while the o e s study is directed at employers. Household
surveys generally are completed by one individual, who
reports for all members of the household. Employer
surveys are completed by an official of the responding
establishment and generally are based on records.
In the census, individuals report themselves in the oc­
cupation in which they work the most hours. Respon­
dents to the OES surveys are instructed to report em­
ployees performing more than one job in the one that
requires the highest skill level; also, definitions that im­
ply a specific skill level for each occupation are listed on
the questionnaire. In the census, the titles reported by
respondents are grouped into categories which may in­
clude workers with greatly different skill levels; catego­
ries usually take the title of the most prominent
occupation in that group. For example, the title “law­
yer” includes lawyers and law clerks which are separate
titles in the OES survey.7
□

tional Employment Statistics ( o e s ) Survey to collect
data on occupational staffing patterns of industries
more frequently. These data are obtained directly from
establishments by mail survey. The survey is a FederalState cooperative program in which data are collected
by State employment security agencies according to
standards, procedures, and methods developed by 'the
BLS. All nonagricultural industries, except private
households, are covered in this survey on a 3-year cycle
— manufacturing industries during the first year, and
roughly half of nonmanufacturing industries in each of
the next 2 years. Each industry is therefore surveyed ev­
ery 3 years. Survey questionnaires are tailored to an in­
dustry’s occupational structure. For example, the iron
and steel industry questionnaire does not list barber as
an occupation. Each questionnaire is limited to a maxi­
mum of 200 occupations; residual categories, such as
“other professional and technical workers’’ are included
so that an establishment can list its total employment.
Employers are requested to identify large or emerging
occupations in their establishments, which are not
found on the questionnaire.
Because data for all States were not available until
the late 1970’s, it was not until 1980 that national ma­
trix for 1978 based on OES survey data could be devel­
oped. Occupational staffing patterns for the 1978 matrix
were derived from the OES surveys of manufacturing in­
dustries in 1977; nonmanufacturing, except trade and
regulated industries in 1978; and trade and regulated in­
dustries in 1979. Occupational employment estimates
for 1978 were obtained by applying the occupational
staffing pattern for each industry to the total wage-andsalary employment in that industry in 1978. The Bu­
reau’s Current Employment Survey ( c e s ) was the
source of the industry totals. As a result of using the
OES survey as the data base, the number of detailed in­
dustries and occupations in the Bureau’s industry-occu­
pation matrix will increase substantially.

Differences among surveys
Wage-and-salary employment totals for agricultural
and private household industries were obtained from
the Current Population Survey ( c p s ) because the OES
survey and the CES do not cover employment in these
industries. Occupational distributions of employment in
these industries were developed from the census-based
matrix; detailed occupations in the census-based matrix
were reclassified in the OES occupational framework.
Because an establishment may have workers in more
occupations than the 200 listed on the questionnaire for
the employer’s industry, the OES surveys do not obtain
complete employment counts for, all occupations. In
general, if survey data accounted for less than an esti­




46

FOOTNOTES
1This article is one in a series presenting data from the ongoing
projections program. The first article reported on new labor force pro­
jections (see Howard N. Fullerton, Jr„ “The 1995 labor force: a first
look”, Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21). The sec­
ond article, appearing in this issue of the Review, gives new macroeco­
nomic projections for 1985 and 1990. The third article, also in this
issue, describes projections of industry output and industry employ­
ment for 1985 and 1990.
2For the most recent census-based matrix, see George T. Silvestri,
The National Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix, 1970, 1978,
and Projected 1990, Bulletin 2086 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1981).
’ Statistics on employment in this article are based on a count of
jobs, as used in the Bureau’s Current Employment Surveys and Occu­
pational Employment Statistics Surveys, rather than a count of per­
sons as used in the Current Population Surveys and decennial census.
Because one worker may hold more than one job, employment on a
“jobs” concept is greater than employment on a “persons” concept.
Differences between these surveys are discussed in more detail else­
where in this article.
Employment in this article is slighly different than that in the other
ones in this issue. Self-employed and unpaid family workers by indus­
try are estimated by different methods. In addition, government em­
ployment in this article is based in the BLS establishment survey. In
the other articles, government employment is based on National In­
come Accounts data from the Department of Commerce.




4 Later in 1981, employment projections for occupations with baseyear employment of 5,000 or more will be published in the industryoccupation matrix.
5An important limitation should be kept in mind when evaluating
occupational employment projections that were generated by applying
the industry-occupational matrix to the various industry projections.
The occupational projections assume that all industries will have an
average occupational composition regardless of the changes that occur
in industry employment under the different scenarios. However, occu­
pational composition of an increase or decrease in an industry’s total
employment may differ from the average occupational composition of
the industry as a result of changes in product mix, capacity utiliza­
tion, and other factors. For example, differences in the assumptions
embodied in the various scenarios can produce shifts in an industry’s
product mix which increase employment requirements in some occu­
pations, while reducing requirements in others.
6 For a detailed description of how the occupational employment
projections were developed, see Richard P. Oliver, Methodology for
Labor Force, Industry and Occupational Employment Projections to
1990, a BLS report to be published later this year.
7For more information on the differences between the OES surveybased matrix and the census-based matrix, write to the Bureau of La­
bor Statistics, Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projec­
tions, Division of Occupational Outlook, Washington, D.C. 20212.

47

The 1995 labor force:
a first look
All three projections high, middle, and low
indicate that women will account for two-thirds
of the growth, most of which will occur
in the prime working-age group; the black labor force
will grow twice as fast as the white force
—

—

H oward N F ullerton , Jr .

creases in the participation of women and with the diver­
gence in male participation between races continuing.2
In the intermediate scenario, the labor force is pro­
jected to reach 115 million by 1985 and 128 million by
1995. (See table 1.) This represents 1.8 percent growth
per year from 1979 to 1985 and 1.0 percent per year
from 1985 to 1995. (See table 2.) Under this scenario,
labor force rates of women age 20 to 44 are assumed to
rise at an increasing rate until 1983. For most age
groups of men, participation is projected to decline, al­
though not as fast as it did in the 1970’s. Overall par­
ticipation is assumed to increase more rapidly for whites
than for blacks.3
In the high-growth scenario, the labor force is pro­
jected to grow 2.3 percent per year between 1979 and
1985 and 1.1 percent per year between 1985 and 1995.
Under this scenario, about 135 million persons would
be in the labor force in 1995. The participation rates for
women age 16 to 19 and 45 to 64 are projected to grow
at an increasing rate until 1985, before tapering off in
the 1990’s. The rates for white men age 25 to 39 are as­
sumed to rise, reversing a long-term drop since 1960.
By the end of the century, the labor force participation
ratio of black men are projected to converge to the ra­
tio of white men. (With the higher rate of black involve­
ment in the Armed Forces and higher rates of
institutionalization, the civilian labor force rates for

By the mid-1980’s, persons in the labor force are pro­
jected to exceed those not in the labor force—including
babies. This development reflects the changing age com­
position of the population which, in turn, is caused by
the swings in births over the past 50 years. By 1995,
this labor force would have a greater proportion of
women and minorities; indeed, about two-thirds of the
labor force growth would be generated by women, re­
flecting their continued labor force participation.1
The projections discussed in this article are part of a
continuing program of economic projections made by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As part of this program,
every 2 years labor force projections are prepared,
followed by projections of the economy, of employment
by industry, of demand, and ultimately, of occupations
by industry.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics developed three labor
force growth scenarios: a high-growth projection, which
assumes rapid growth in the labor force participation of
women in the 1980’s and the convergence of participa­
tion between black men and white men under age 65; a
middle-growth scenario, with the expansion coming from
women; and a low-growth path with only moderate inHoward N Fullerton, Jr., is a demographic statistician in the Office of
Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.




48

by the more populous baby-boom generation; the
growth of the older population will be slowed.
More than two-thirds of the 1980-95 labor force
growth would come from women. (These projections do
not yield estimates of new entrants and of re-entrants.)
Women are expected to compose an additional 4 per­
cent of the labor force in 1995 under each of the three
patterns of labor force growth. The increase in the pro­
portion of employed women in the prime working-age
group would more than offset the decreasing propor­
tions of younger and older working women. On the oth­
er hand, the proportion of men in the labor force is
assumed to be slightly less. Under the medium- and
low-growth scenarios, the activity rates of men age 25
and over is expected to drop. Under the high-growth
path, the rates for men age 40 to 64 are projected to re­
main constant and the rates for men age 25 to 39 will
increase slightly. Rates for men and women under age
25 are moving up, but those for women are increasing
faster. In the older age groups, where rates for men and
women are dropping, those for men are dropping faster.
Hence, women’s increasing share of the labor force re­
flects their own greater activity as well as the decrease
in male participation.
Until recently, labor force participation has been
dropping for most age groups of black men, while their
population has been increasing at a higher rate than
that of whites. As the black population continues to
grow at a faster rate, the black labor force also can be
expected to grow at a faster rate. Thus, under all three
projections, the black labor force is growing considera­
bly faster—at about twice the rate of whites. That the
relatively rapid growth is related to population growth
may be seen by comparing possible participation rates.
Under middle and low scenarios, the overall rate is low­
er for blacks than for whites. Under the high-growth
scenario, which assumes convergence of male total par­
ticipation ratios for blacks and whites, black civilian la-

some age groups of black men would exceed those of
white men.) However, because blacks make up about 12
percent of -the labor force, this assumption of the highgrowth scenario does not have a significant impact on
the level of the overall labor force.
In the low-growth scenario, the labor force is project­
ed to grow 1.1 percent a year from 1979 to 1985 and
0.8 percent from 1985 to 1995. By 1995, the civilian la­
bor force is projected to be only 122 million. The par­
ticipation rates of women age 20 to 44 are projected to
rise over the entire period, but at a decreasing rate. For
other age groups of women, participation is assumed to
increase at a slower rate than in the middle-growth
path, reflecting a longer ran experience than that in the
1970’s. For men, labor force activity is projected to de­
crease more rapidly than in the middle-growth scenario,
leading to an increased disparity in rates by race.

W©mem provide mostt growth
As a base for these projections, we used the popula­
tion projections prepared by the Bureau of the Census.
Under the Series II (middle) projection, the population
16 and oldef grows steadily through 1995, although the
decrease in births (which began around 1960) means
slower rates of growth during the remainder of this cen­
tury.4 (See table 3.) Because of reduced birth rates dur­
ing the 1930’s and the 1970’s and the baby boom of the
1950’s, the age composition of the population and, thus,
of the labor force will change significantly during the
next 15 years.5
In the past, much of the increase in the labor force
has been generated by the entrance of youth and wom­
en. The number of new labor force entrants could drop
in the future because there will be fewer youths. This
means that the labor force would consist of more expe­
rienced workers than now. By 1985, the small number
of persons bom during the Great Depression will begin
to leave the prime working ages. They will be replaced

TsM® 1. Civilian tabor tore® based on thr®® dofferent growth paths to 19@
5
P articipation rate

Annual perce n t c h a n g e 1
A ctual (in m illions)

P ro je cte d (in m

1878

Total: .........................
Middle g ro w th ...............
High growth .................
Low g ro w th ....................

74.5

92.6

48.3

W o m en :...................................
Middle g ro w th ...............
High growth .................
Low g ro w th ....................

26.2

1885

122.4
128.1
117.4

55.6

65.9
68.2
63.9

37.0

56.5
59.9
53.5

2.7
1.3
1.6
1.0

.7
1.0
.4

3.5

.5
.8
.3

1.9
2.3
1.7

1.2
1.0
1.2

A ctual
1855

1875

1878

58.9

61.2

63.7

39.3

46.3

1880

1885

67.9
71.1
65.2

68.6
72.4
65.9

77.7
79.2
76.3

77.9

1885

66.5
68.4
64.6
80.7

4.1

49

P rojected

0.8
1.0
.7

1.7

’ Compounded continuously.




1880
to
1885

2.9
3.5
2.1

59.9
63.9
56.8

43.4

1835
to
1880

1.1
1.4
.8

1.4

59.5

1878
to
1855

1.9
2.4
1.4

67.6
70.8
64.9

51.4
53.4
49.2

1875
to
1178

127.5
134.7
121.7

102.9

Men: .......................................
Middle growth . . . . . . .
High growth .................
Low g ro w th ....................

1880

63.6
64.8
62.5

1175

1855

115.0
118.3
111.7

1885

1835
to
1875
2.2

G row th path

77.2
79.9
74.9

76.8
80.5
73.7

56.5
58.7
54.1

59.6
63.2
56.4

61.2
65.2
57.9

77.9

51.0

Tab!© 2.

Annual rate o f grow th off the civilian labor fo rce by sex, age, and race, 1@75-79 and projected to 1995

[In percent]
P rojected

Actual
M iddle g ro w th
Age, ses, and race

1975
to
1979

Low g ro w th

H igh g ro w th

1979
to
1985

1985
to
1990

1990
to
1995

1979
to
1985

1985
to
1990

1980
to
1995

1979
to
1985

1935
to
1990

1890
to
1995

Total, age 16 and o v e r ...................................

2.67

1.86

1.25

.83

2.34

1.61

1.01

1.37

.99

.72

Men .................................................................................
16 to 2 4 ...................................................................
16 to 19 ...........................................................
20 to 24 ...........................................................
25 to 5 4 ...................................................................
25 to 34 ...........................................................
35 to 44 ...........................................................
45 to 54 ...........................................................
55 and over ...........................................................
55 to 64 ...........................................................
65 and over ......................................................

1.70
3.15
1.39
2.72
1.83
3.32
2.45
-.91
-.91
.56
-6 .9 6

1.11
-1 .4 7
-2 .2 5
- .0 6
2.06
2.18
3.88
-.4 1
.78
-.0 4
4.47

.70
-2 .1 7
-.7 9
-2 .9 4
1.88
.52
3.18
2.37
-1 .2 0
-1 .4 3
-.3 3

.52
-1 .1 6
-.3 4
-1 .6 6
1.10
-1 .5 9
1.87
4.03
-.5 7
-.4 4
-1 .0 4

1.43
-1.11
-1 .7 6
.22
2.24
2.43
4.00
-.2 8
1.69
.58
6.51

1.01
-1 .6 7
- .1 4
-2 .5 3
2.04
.75
3.28
2.50
- .2 6
-.8 3
1.64

.76
- .6 3
.28
-1.21
1.23
-1 .4 0
1.97
4.14
.14
.00
.58

.80
-1 .6 7
-2.4 1
-.2 8
1.88
2.01
3.72
-.6 3
-.2 7
-.9 9
2.98

.45
-2 .2 6
- .8 7
-3 .0 4
1.72
.35
3.03
2.19
-2 .3 0
-2 .3 7
-2.01

.32
-1 .1 9
- .3 8
-1 .6 9
.96
-1 .7 4
1.75
3.88
-1 .4 8
-1 .1 5
-2 .8 0

W o m e n .............................................................................
16 to 2 4 ...................................................................
16 to 19 ...........................................................
20 to 24 ...........................................................
25 to 5 4 ...................................................................
25 to 34 ...........................................................
35 to 44 ...........................................................
45 to 54 ...........................................................
55 and over ...........................................................
55 to 64 ...........................................................
65 and over ......................................................

4.06
3.30
2.63
3.73
4.88
7.19
5.78
.72
2.05
1.91
2.60

2.85
.49
-1 .1 6
1.48
4.28
4.98
6.12
.52
.45
.44
.47

1.91
- .9 0
.08
-1 .4 6
3.24
2.06
4.64
3.28
-.6 1
-.9 8
.78

1.18
-.2 1
.30
-.5 2
1.73
-.7 3
2.69
4.56
.01
-.3 6

3.52
1.02
-.8 4
2.12
5.05
6.03
6.84
.80
.86
.83
1.02

2.33
-.2 4
.48
-.6 5
3.56
2.38
5.01
3.59
-.1 5
-.6 3
1.62

1.29
-.2 8
.73
-.8 8
1.86
-.6 0
2.85
4.75
.30
.29
.33

2.13
-.0 4
-1 .5 5
.85
3.42
3.82
5.35
.12
.07
.13
-.1 3

1.67
-1 .2 0
-.2 3
-1 .7 6
3.04
1.93
4.41
2.96
-.8 5
-1 .2 6
.72

1.18
- .4 6
.10
-.8 1
1.83
- .5 5
2.84
4.31
- .1 0
- .0 4
- .3 0

Total, age 16 and o v e r ..................................

2.49

1.71

1.08

.63

2.10

1.37

.76

1.22

.84

.57

Men ..................................................................................
16 to 2 4 ...................................................................
25 to 5 4 .........................................................
55 and over ...........................................................
W o m e n .............................................................................
16 to 2 4 ...................................................................
25 to 5 4 ...................................................................
55 and over ...........................................................

1.56
2.07
1.68
.39
3.89
3.11
4.74
1.94

.96
-.9 7
1.88
-.2 2
2.72
.36
4.19
.28

.55
-2 .2 8
1.72
-1 .3 2
1.74
-1 .0 7
3.11
-.8 8

.36
-1 .2 5
.93
-.6 4
.96
-.5 7
1.55
- .1 6

1.20
-.9 1
2.04
.60
3.32
.68
4.92
.68

.77
-2 .1 4
1.84
-.4 7
2.11
-.7 2
3.44
-.4 3

.52
-1 .0 9
1.01
-.0 1
1.04
-.7 8
1.67
.09

.68
-1 .1 6
1.75
-1.31
1.97
- .1 6
3.29
-.0 8

.32
-2 .3 4
1.59
-2 .4 7
1.49
-1 .3 8
2.91
-1 .1 2

.19
-1 .2 6
.82
-1 .6 0
1.02
- .5 9
1.68
-.2 9

Total, age 16 and o v e r ...................................

3.97

2.97

2.39

2.02

4.01

3.14

2.46

2.42

2.05

1.65

Men .................................................................................
16 to 2 4 ...................................................................
25 to 5 4 ...................................................................
55 and o v e r ...........................................................
W o m e n .............................................................................
16 to 2 4 ...................................................................
25 to 5 4 ...................................................................
55 and o v e r ...........................................................

2.95
3.29
3.13
1.52
5.15
4.67
5.11
2.94

2.27
- .0 7
3.42
.46
3.71
1.35
4.85
1.77

1.85
-1.41
3.08
-.0 7
2.92
.13
3.96
1.25

1.58
-.5 6
2.29
.07
2.44
1.90
2.73
1.18

3.26
2.33
3.82
2.11
4.81
3.19
5.79
2.27

2.71
1.06
3.45
1.57
3.56
2.37
4.18
1.79

2.32
1.66
10.35
1.49
2.58
2.11
2.84
1.62

1.80
- .3 2
2.91
- .1 8
3.09
.72
4.20
133

1.40
-1 .6 5
2.62
-.1 9
2.70
-.1 1
3.74
1.03

1.20
- .7 6
1.91
-1 .0 2
2.08
.28
2.63
1.14

.11

WHITE

B U C K AND OTHER

N ote :

Compounded continuously.

slower rate. Further, during the late 1980’s and early
1990’s, women of the baby-boom generation will pass
their prime childbearing ages.

bor force participation exceeds that of whites by 1995.
(This reflects, for black women, an expected continua­
tion of higher participation and, for black men, higher
rates of institutionalization and of participation in the
Armed Forces.) Under the middle and low scenarios,
the racial gap in male participation rates is projected to
approximately double from the percentage point differ­
ence in 1979.
The above description of population and labor force
changes suggests that the discussion of future labor
force trends should focus on two periods, 1979 to 1985,
and 1985 to 1995. During 1979-85, the teenage and
young adult population will decline in absolute numbers
and the prime-age population will grow sharply. During
1985-95, the older adult population will grow at a




The changing labor force, 1979-85
A look back to 1975 will help our gaze forward to
1985. In 1975, the total fertility rate was 1.8 children
per woman; for 1985, the Census Bureau’s Series II
population projection is for 2.0 children per woman.6
Because the total fertility rate adjusts for changing age
composition, there would be an increase in births from
the levels of the 1970’s. This increase in fertility rates,
coupled with the increase in the labor force participa­
tion of women, means there would be more working
mothers.

50

ing of the baby-boom cohort, the numbers of those age
16 to 24 almost certainly will decline so that, despite a
projected increase in their labor force participation
rates, the level of the youth labor force would fall. (Of
course, the drop would not be as sharp as that for the
population component.)
The composition of the younger population will also
be affected by the difference in fertility between blacks
and whites. Although fertility for both groups has been
falling, black fertility rates remain higher. As a conse­
quence, the black population is younger (the median
age is lower), and the youth population will have a
greater proportion of blacks than will the population
age 25 and over. At the same time, black youths have
lower labor force participation than do their white
counterparts, so if other things remained the same, the

In 1975, 46 percent of all women were in the labor
force. By 1985, this is projected to increase to 56.4 per­
cent under the middle-growth scenario. (See tables 4
and 5.) This dramatic increase reflects both the move­
ment of women of the baby-boom generation into the
prime working-age group and the projection of in­
creased activity rates. In 1975, women represented 40
percent of the labor force— by 1985 they would repre­
sent about 45 percent. The percents do not vary much
across scenarios.
Slow growth for youths. Since the early 1960’s, the youth
population (age 16 to 24) has been growing at a faster
rate than has the older population. However, 20 years
have passed since the years of peak births, and the size
of this age group has begun to fall. Thus, with the ag­
Table 3.

Civilian noninstitutional population, by age, s@x, and race, 1 9 7 5 -7 9 and p ro je c te d to 1995

[Numbers in thousands]
A ctual population

P rojected population

Net change

Age, sett, and race

Annual p erce n t change1

1075
107©

1685

1620

IS IS

1085

1080

1075

1070

10S5

1000

1070

107S

1070
1085

1080

1005

117©

m s

1080

1085

to

to

to

to

to

to

to

to

Total, 16 and o v e r ..........
Men .................................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................
16 to 19 ...........................
20 to 24 ...........................
25 to 5 4 ...................................
25 to 34 ...........................
35 to 44 ...........................
45 to 54 ...........................
55 and over ...........................
55 to 64 ...........................
65 and o v e r ......................

151,268
71,403
16,793
8,046
8,747
36,617
14,537
10,756
11,324
17,994
9,215
8,779

161,532
76,449
17,669
8,155
9,514
39,381
16,552
11,838
10,991
19,399
9,782
9,617

172,850
81,889
16,364
6,920
9,444
44,707
18,988
14,947
10,772
20,818
10,217
10,601

180,129
85,285
14,695
6,521
8,174
49,224
19,574
17,510
12,140
21,366
9,819
11,547

186,034
88,031
13,983
6,403
7,580
52,190
18,122
19,236
14,832
21,858
9,738
12,120

10,264
5,046
876
109
767
2,764
2,015
1,082
-3 3 3
1,405
567
838

11,318
5,440
-1 ,3 0 5
-1 ,2 3 5
-7 0
5,326
2,436
3,109
-2 1 9
1,419
435
984

7,279
3,396
-1 ,6 6 9
-3 9 9
-1 ,2 7 0
4,517
586
2,563
1,368
548
-3 9 8
946

5,905
2,746
-7 1 2
-1 1 8
-5 9 4
2,966
-1 ,4 5 2
1,726
2,692
492
-8 1
573

1.65
1.72
1.28
.34
2.21
1.84
3.30
2.43
- .7 4
1.90
1.50
2.31

1.14
1.15
-1 .2 7
-2 .7 0
-.1 2
2.14
2.31
3.98
- .3 3
1.18
.73
1.64

0.83
.82
-2 .1 3
-1 .1 8
-2 .8 5
1.94
.61
3.22
2.42
.52
-.7 9
1.72

0.65
.64
- .9 9
- .3 5
-1 .5 0
1.18
-1 .5 3
1.90
4.09
.46
- .8 2
.97

W o m e n .............................................
16 to 2 4 ...................................
16 to 19 ...........................
20 to 24 ...........................
25 to 5 4 ...................................
25 to 34 ...........................
35 to 44 ...........................
45 to 54 ...........................
55 and o v e r ...........................
55 to 64 ...........................
65 and o v e r ......................

79,865
17,686
8,215
9,471
39,326
15,488
11,632
12,206
22,853
10,347
12,506

85,083
18,397
8,224
10,173
42,031
17,499
12,780
11,752
24,656
10,930
13,726

90,981
17,012
6,981
10,031
47,318
19,908
15,938
11,474
26,631
11,293
15,338

94,844
15,322
6,560
8,762
52,022
20,533
18,553
12,936
27,500
10,736
16,764

98,003
14,560
6,421
8,139
55,156
19,071
20,384
15,701
28,287
10,637
17,650

5,218
711
9
702
2,705
2,011
1,148
-4 5 4
1,803
583
1,220

5,878
-1 ,3 8 5
-1 ,2 4 3
-1 4 2
5,287
2,407
3,158
-2 7 8
1,975
363
1,612

3,883
-1 ,6 9 0
-4 2 1
-1 ,2 6 9
4,704
627
2,615
1,462
869
-5 5 7
1,426

3,159
-7 6 2
-1 3 9
-6 2 3
3,134
-1 ,4 6 2
1,831
2,765
787
-9 9
886

1.59
.99
.03
1.80
1.68
3.14
2.38
- .9 4
1.92
1.38
2.35

1.12
-1 .3 0
-2 .6 9
- .2 3
1.99
2.17
3.75
- .4 0
1.29
.55
1.87

0.84
-2 .0 7
-1 .2 4
-2 .6 7
1.91
.62
3.06
2.43
.64
-1.0 1
1.79

0.66
-1 .0 2
- .4 3
-1 .4 6
1.18
-1 .4 7
1.92
3.95
.71
- .1 9
1.01

Total, 16 and o v e r ..........
Men .................................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................
25 to 5 4 ...................................
55 and o v e r ...........................

133,501
63,385
14,526
32,569
16,291

141,614
67,493
15,175
34,816
17,501

150,085
71,632
13,796
39,151
18,685

155,029
73,982
12,154
42,788
19,040

158,791
75,770
11,418
45,002
19,350

8,113
4,108
649
2,247
1,210

8,471
4,139
-1 ,3 7 9
4,335
1,184

4,944
2,350
-1 ,6 4 5
3,637
355

3,762
1,788
-7 3 3
2,214
310

1.49
1.58
1.10
1.68
1.81

.97
1.00
-1 .5 8
1.98
1.10

.65
.65
-2 .5 0
1.79
.38

.48
.48
-1 .2 4
1.01
.32

W o m e n .............................................
16 to 2 4 ...................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................
55 and over ...........................

70,115
15,068
34,315
20,733

74,120
15,522
36,339
22,257

78,453
14,118
40,457
23,878

81,047
12,482
44,115
24,450

83,021
11,724
46,352
24,945

4,005
454
2,024
1,524

4,333
-1 ,4 0 4
4,118
1,621

2,594
-1 ,6 3 6
3,658
572

1,974
-7 5 8
2,237
495

1.48
.74
1.44
1.79

.95
-1 .5 7
1.81
1.18

.65
-2 .4 3
1.75
.47

.48
-1 .2 5
.99
.40

Total, 16 and o v e r ..........

17,768

19,918

22,765

25,100

27,243

2,150

2,847

2,335

2,143

2.90

2.25

1.97

1.65

Men .................................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................
25 to 5 4 ...................................
55 and o v e r ...........................

8,018
2,267
4,048
1,703

8,955
2,493
4,564
1,897

10,257
2,568
5,556
2,133

11,303
2,541
6,436
2,326

12,261
2,565
7,188
2,508

937
226
516
194

1,302
75
992
236

1,042
-2 7
880
193

958
24
752
182

2.80
2.40
3.04
2.73

2.29
.50
3.33
1.97

1.96
- .2 9
2.98
1.75

1.64
.19
2.23
1.52

W o m e n ............................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................
55 and o v e r ...........................

9,750
£ 6T 85,011
2,120

10,963
2,873
5,691
2,399

12,508
289rT
6,861
2,753

13,797
2,840
7,907
3,050

14,982
2,836
8,804
3,342

1,213
255
680
279

1,545
21
1,170
354

1,289
-5 4
1,046
297

1 185
-4
897
292

2.97
2.36
3.23
3.14

2.22
.12
3.17
2.32

1.98
- .3 8
2.88
2.07

1.66
- .0 3
2.17
1.85

WHITE

BLACK AND OTHER

'Compounded continuously.




51

Tab8® 4.

Civilian labor fo rce participation rate by sex, age, and race, 1 9 7 5 -7 9 and projected to 1995

[In percent]
A ctual

P rojected

Sax, age, end race

m iddle g ro w th
1975

1979

1935

1990

H igh g ro w th
1995

1985

1SS0

Low g ro w th
1S95

1S85

1«®0

1S95

Total, age 16 and o v e r ..........

61.2

63.7

66.5

67.9

68.6

68.4

71.1

72.4

64.6

65.2

65.4

Men .........................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
16 to 19 ...................................
20 to 24 ..................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
25 to 34 ..................................
35 to 44 ..................................
45 to 54 ..................................
55 and o v e r ...................................
55 to 64 ..................................
65 and o v e r ..............................

779
72.4
59.2
84.6
94.4
95.3
95.7
92.1
49.5
75.8
21.7

77.9
75.1
61.7
86.6
94.4
95.4
95.8
91.4
465
73.0
20.0

77.7
76.9
63.4
86.9
94.0
94.7
95.4
91.0
43.1
69.7
17.5

77.2
76.8
64.7
86.4
93.7
94.3
95.2
90.8
39.6
67.5
15.8

76.8
76.1
64.7
85.7
93.4
94.0
95.1
90.6
37.6
66.5
14.3

79.2
78.7
65.3
88.4
95.0
96.1
98.0
91.7
45.5
72.4
19.7

79.9
80.5
68.8
89.8
95.5
96.7
96.4
92.1
43.8
72.2
19.6

80.5
82.0
71.7
91.2
95.7
97.4
96.7
92.4
43.1
72.8
19.2

76.3
76.1
62.8
85.8
93.0
93.7
94.4
89.8
40.5
65.8
16.1

74.9
75.5
63.8
84.9
92.0
92.5
93.6
88.8
35.1
60.7
13.3

73.7
74.7
63.7
84.1
91.0
91.5
93.0
87.9
31.8
57.8
11.0

W o m e n ....................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
16 to 19 ..................................
20 to 24 ...................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
25 to 34 ..................................
35 to 44 ..................................
45 to 54 ..................................
55 and over ...................................
55 to 64 ..................................
65 and o v e r ..............................

46.3
5 72
49.2
64.1
55.0
54.6
55.8
54.6
23.1
41.0
8.3

51.0
62.6
54.5
69.1
62.2
63.8
63.6
58.4
23.2
41.9
8.3

56.5
69.7
59.8
76.5
71.1
75.1
72.9
61.7
22.1
41.6
7.7

59.6
73.9
63.9
81.4
75.9
80.7
78.6
64.3
20.7
41.7
7.3

61.2
77.0
66.3
85.3
78.0
83.7
81.7
66.2
20.2
42.3
6.8

58.7
71.9
61.0
79.5
74.3
79.7
75.9
62.7
22.6
42.6
7.9

63.2
78.9
66.5
88.1
80.5
86.9
83.2
66.4
21.7
43.4
7.9

65.2
81.8
70.5
90.7
83.3
90.8
87.2
69.0
21.5
44.5
7.6

54.1
67.5
58.4
73.8
67.7
70.3
69.8
60.2
21.6
40.9
7.4

56.4
70.5
61.4
77.3
71.5
75.0
74.4
61.8
20.0
40.3
7.0

57.9
72.5
63.1
79.8
73.9
78.5
77.9
62.9
19.4
40.6
6.6

Total, age 16 and o v e r ..........

61.5

64.0

66.8

68.3

68.8

68.4

70.9

71.9

65.0

65.6

65.9

Men ........................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
55 and o v e r ...................................
W o m e n ....................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
55 and o v e r ...................................

78.7
74.3
95.1
49.8
45.9
59.0
54.2
22.8

78.6
77.2
95.1
47.1
50.6
64.8
61.6
22.9

78.5
80.1
94.6
43.6
56.2
72.8
70.8
21.7

78.1
81.0
94.3
40.0
59.3
78.0
75.7
20.3

77.7
80.9
93.9
38.1
60.7
80.6
77.8
19.7

79.6
80.4
95.5
45.8
58.2
74.2
73.8
22.2

80.1
81.9
95.7
43.9
62.5
80.9
80.2
21.2

80.3
82.5
95.7
43.1
64.3
82.8
83.0
20.9

77.2
79.2
93.8
40.8
53.8
70.5
67.2
21.2

76.0
79.8
93.0
35.3
56.1
74.4
71.2
19.6

74.9
79.7
92.1
32.1
57.6
76.9
73.6
18.9

Total, age 16 and o v e r ..........

59.3

61.8

64.4

65.8

67.0

68.5

72.5

75.4

62.4

62.7

62.7

Men .........................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
55 and over ...................................
W o m e n ....................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
55 and over ..................................

71.5
60.1
89.0
45.1
49.2
46.4
60.2
26.4

71.9
62.3
89.3
43.0
53.5
50.8
66.3
26.2

71.9
60.2
89.8
39.3
58.3
54.7
73.1
25.4

71.5
56.6
90.2
35.9
61.1
56.1
77.0
24.4

71.3
54.5
90.5
33.5
63.5
61.8
79.2
23.6

76.2
69.4
91.8
43.4
62.2
60.9
77.1
26.2

79.0
74.0
94.0
43.0
67.1
69.8
82.1
25.8

81.7
79.6
96.0
42.9
70.3

69.9
59.3
87.1
37.8
56.3
52.7
70.4
24.7

68.0
55.1
85.6
33.5
58.3
53.4
73.5
23.5

66.6
52.5
84.3
30.3
59.5
54.2
75.2
22.7

WHITE

S U C K AND OTHER

growth of the youth labor force would be slower. (See
table 6.)
The number of black youths should increase slightly
while the number of whites should drop. Only black
young men had lessening labor force participation during
the 1970’s. Under the middle-growth projection, this
drop is assumed to continue, although at a decreasing
rate. The effects of greater labor force participation by
black women and a proportionately larger youth popula­
tion would offset the decline in male participation, and
black youths would constitute the same proportion of the
labor force in 1985 as at present. Under both the middleand high-growth projections, the black youth labor force
would be half men and half women. In the high-growth
scenario, black youths represent ah even greater propor­
tion of the labor force in 1985; the more pessimistic lowgrowth pattern yields a lower proportion.




r is

90.8
25.5

Prime-age labor force. The prime-age workers (25 to 54
years) would be the fastest growing component of the
labor force under each of the growth paths. The follow­
ing tabulation shows annual growth rates by major age
group and race, 1975-79, and projected growth for
1979-85:

1975- 79
Y o u t h .............................
Prime .............................
Older .............................
White .............................
Black and other ...........

____
3.2
____
3.0
...................... 2
....
2.6
....
4.0

1979-85
-0 .6
3.0
.7
1.7
3.0

In each scenario, the prime-age labor force of women
would grow at a faster rate than that of men. Under the
high projection, between 1975 and 1985, the female la­

52

bor force is projected to grow at twice the male rate
and at a pace faster than that experienced in the 1970’s.
This is due to three factors: the movement of women of
the baby-boom generation into this age group, a moder­
ate rise in fertility, and a continued growth in female la­
bor force participation. The high-growth scenario for
women in this age group is an attempt to reflect the ac­
celeration in participation that was exhibited in the
1970’s.
Under the high-growth scenario, prime-age men (par­
ticularly young men), are also expected to experience an
increase in participation. Under the high-growth path,
prime-age men would represent 78 percent of the total
male labor force, a moderate increase from 1979. Under
the middle-growth path, such trends would also be evi­
dent, although less significantly. For example, by 1985,
prime-age male workers would represent only 75 per­
Table 5.

cent of the male labor force. With the more pronounced
drop anticipated under the low-growth scenario, the
proportion of prime-age men would be less than in
1975, while their female counterparts would be more
than 10 percentage points higher than in 1975.
Older workers. Older people (age 55 and over) have the
most on-the-job experience, although on average, they
have the least formal education. From 1979 to 1985,
older workers are expected to participate less intensively
in the labor force. These projections do not indicate the
extent of part-time labor force activity that this growing
segment of the population might elect.
Under the high-growth scenario, men age 55 to 64
are expected to have only a modest decrease in partici­
pation. This decrease, coupled with population growth,
will result in an increase in their labor force. Under the

Civilian labor fo rce by sex, age, and race, 1 9 7 5 -7 9 and projected to 1995

[Numbers in thousands]
A ctual

P rojected
M iddle g ro w th

S@k, age, and race
1975

1979

High g ro w th

Low g ro w th

1985

1990

1995

1985

1990

1915

1985

1990

1695

Total, agfe 16 and over ___

92,613

102,908

114,985

122,375

127,542

118,252

128,123

134,753

111,706

117,394

121,684

M e n .........................................................
16 to 2 4 .......................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................
25 to 5 4 .......................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................
55 and over ................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................
65 and o v e r ...........................

55,615
12,158
4,760
7,398
34,569
13,854
10,288
10,426
8,888
6,982
1,906

59,517
13,270
5,031
8,239
37,180
15,792
11,337
10,051
5,068
7,140
1,290

63,600
12,592
4,387
8,205
42,029
17,976
14,252
9,801
8,979
7,122
1,857

65,880
11,282
4,216
7,086
46,147
18,453
16,672
11,022
8,451
6,625
1,826

67,611
10,641
4,144
6,497
48,758
17,029
18,297
13,432
8,212
6,479
1,733

64,825
12,873
4,521
8,352
42,473
18,239
14,353
9,881
9,479
7,393
2,086

68,174
11,833
4,489
7,344
46,988
18,934
16,873
11,181
9,353
7,090
2,263

70,835
11,463
4,553
6,910
49,950
17,645
18,604
13,701
9,422
7,092
2,330

62,458
12,445
4,344
8,101
41,584
17,796
14,116
9,672
8,429
6,725
1,704

63,888
11,099
4,158
6,941
45,287
18,113
16,393
10,781
7,502
5,963
1,539

64,918
10,450
4,078
6,372
47,507
16,583
17,880
13,044
6,961
5,626
1,335

Women .................................................
16 to 24 .......................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................
25 to 54 .......................................
25 to 3 4 ...................................
35 to 4 4 ...................................
45 to 5 4 ...................................
55 and over ................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................
65 and o v e r ...........................

36,998
10,108
4,039
6,069
21,613
8,456
6,493
6,665
5,277
4,244
1,033

43,391
11,511
4,481
7,029
26,156
11,167
8,130
6,860
5,724
4,579
1,145

51,385
11,854
4,176
7,678
33,650
14,955
11,617
7,078
5,881
4,703
1,178

56,495
11,325
4,194
7,131
39,469
16,568
14,581
8,320
5,701
4,476
1,225

59,931
11,205
4,259
6,946
43,021
15,971
16,651
10,399
5,705
4,502
1,203

53,427
12,235
4,259
7,976
35,163
15,870
12,094
7,199
6,029
4,812
1,217

59,949
12,083
4,363
7,720
41,885
17,853
15,444
8,588
5,981
4,662
1,319

63,918
11,912
4,526
7,386
45,934
17,322
17,781
10,831
6,072
4,731
1,341

49,248
11,477
4,079
7,398
32,020
13,988
11,121
6,911
5,751
4,615
1,136

53,503
10,800
4,031
6,769
37,198
15,396
13,805
7,997
5,508
4,330
1,178

56,766
10,551
4,053
6,498
40,735
14,971
15,887
9,877
5,480
4,320
1,160

Total, age 16 and over . . . .

62,084

90,602

100,316

105,867

109,292

102,667

109,930

114,208

97,496

101,661

104,604

M e n .........................................................
16 to 24 ........................................
25 to 54 .'.....................................
55 and over ................................
Women ..................................................
16 to 24 ........................................
25 to 54 ........................................
55 and over ................................

49,881
10,795
30,965
8,121
32,203
8,890
18,595
4,717

53,074
11,718
33,105
8,251
37,528
10,051
22,382
5,095

56,228
11,047
37,041
8,140
44,088
10,271
28,635
5,182

57,800
9,843
40,342
7,615
48,067
9,731
33,379
4,957

58,871
9,242
42,256
7,373
50,421
9,453
36,052
4,916

57,014
11,090
37,370
8,554
45,653
10,472
29,872
5,309

59,245
9,953
40,939
8,353
50,685
10,100
35,391
5,194

60,817
9,421
43,051
8,345
53,391
9,710
38,462
5,219

55,287
10,923
36,742
7,622
42,209
9,952
27,187
5,070

56,197
9,699
39,775
6,723
45,464
9,284
31,389
4,791

56,752
9,103
41,447
6,202
47,852
9,013
34,118
4,721

Total, age 16 and over . . . .

10,529

12,306

14,669

16,508

18,250

15,585

18,193

20,545

14,210

15,733

17,080

M e n .........................................................
16 to 24 ........................................
25 to 54 ........................................
55 and over ................................
Women ..................................................
16 to 2 4 ........................................
25 to 5 4 ........................................
55 and over ................................

5,734
1,363
3,602
768
4,795
1,216
3,018
560

6,443
1,552
4,075
816
5,863
1,460
3,774
629

7,372
1,545
4,988
839
7,297
1,583
5,015
699

8,080
1,439
5,805
836
8,428
1,594
6,090
744

8,740
1,399
6,502
839
9,510
1,752
6,969
789

7,811
1,783
5,103
925
7,774
1,763
5,291
720

8,929
1,880
6,049
1,000
9,264
1,983
6,494
787

10,018
2,042
6,899
1,077
10,527
2,202
7,472
853

7,171
1,522
4,842
807
7,039
1,525
4,833
681

7,691
1,400
5,512
799
8,042
1,516
5,809
717

8,166
1,347
6,060
759
8,914
1,538
6,617
759

WHITE

iL A C K AND OTHER




53

under the high-growth pattern would young men age 20
to 24 have a greater participation rate than in 1979. By
1995, the youth labor force would be a smaller propor­
tion of the labor force than in either 1979 or 1985.

other two scenarios, their participation is expected to
drop more sharply, and the male labor force age 55 to
64 would actually decrease. Participation rates for wom­
en in this age group are expected to increase under both
the moderate- and high-growth projections. The result
would be an older labor force with proportionately
more women.
The scenarios in these projections for the age group
65 and over are the same for both sexes. For the high
projection, recent legislation forbidding mandatory re­
tirement before age 70 is expected to hold participation
constant. Under the moderate-growth scenario, the
measured rate of decrease in participation is reduced
somewhat, so that labor force activity drops at a slower
rate than in the past. Under the low-growth projection,
the measured declines in labor force participation are
projected to continue.

Prime-age workers. By 1995, more than 70 percent of
the labor force would be in the prime working ages. For
the middle- and high-growth scenarios, this is actually a
lower proportion than in 1985. The projected growth
for prime-age men is about the same under all three sce­
narios; consequently, even after the growth in female
participation is taken into account, the prime-age labor
force is still more stable over the scenarios than that off
the younger and older age groups. (See table 6.) In the
middle- and low-growth projections, it is assumed that
the youth and the older labor force grow relatively
slower than the prime-age labor force, so these scenar­
ios have a higher proportion of prime-age workers.
However, the greatest number of prime-age workers
would be attained under the high-growth pattern. Un­
der all projections, the labor force would have more
women and more blacks than now: 47 percent of the la­
bor force would be women, and 14 to 15 percent of the
labor force would be black. Following are selected an­
nual growth rates (in percent) of all persons in the la­
bor force, by major age group and race, 1965-79, and
projected grbwth to 1995:

An experienced labor force,, 1985-95
During 1985-95, the baby-boom generation will be
in the prime working ages and the relatively small num­
ber of persons bom in the Great Depression will begin
retiring, easing pressures on retirement systems.
To put the 1995 projections in context, it is useful to
look back to 1965, a time of the buildup of forces in
Vietnam and a period of lower inflation. The fertility
rate was 2.9 children per woman, well above the Census
Bureau’s Series II projection of 2.1 for 1995.7 In fact,
1965 was the first year in which births were below 4
million—after 11 years of high birth rates. In 1965, 40
percent of all women, 34 percent of all married women,
and 23 percent of mothers with children under age 6
were in the labor force. Although comparable projec­
tions of the labor force by marital and parental status
were not made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for
1995, more than half of all married women were al­
ready in the labor force by 1979, as were 45.2 percent
of mothers with preschool children. Both groups
(which, of course, overlap) are projected to supply
much of the labor force growth in the 1990’s.

1965- 79
Youth........................
Prim e........................
Older ........................
W hite........................
Black and o th e r.........

-0.9
2.3
- .2
1.2
2.5

Older workers. Under all scenarios, workers age 55 and
older would continue to be a decreasing proportion of
the workforce. The changes for the 25 years from 1970
are most dramatic in the low-growth projection—in
1995, older workers would constitute. about two-thirds
the proportion of the labor force that they did in 1970.
This drop reflects both their expected continued drop in
participation and the increase in the numbers of persons
in the prime working ages, when participation is
highest. The drop in the proportions for the middleand high-growth paths is less extreme, from 14 percent
in 1979 to around 11 percent in 1995.

Youths. In 1965, youths were a relatively small propor­
tion of the labor force, 18 percent. By 1979, this num­
ber had climbed to 24.4 percent. The effects of changes
in the composition of the labor force may be seen by
looking at the median age of the labor force. In 1965, it
was 40 years; by 1979, it had dropped 5 years, taking
the effects of both greater retirement and the aging of
the baby-boom generation into account; by 1995, the
median age of the labor force is projected to be 37.5
years.
Based on the Census Bureau’s Series II birth rate
projection, the youth labor force would continue to de­
crease from 1985 to 1995, although a larger proportion
of teenagers would participate in the labor force. Only




.........
3.9
.........
2.2
................... 4
.........
2.3
.........
2.8

1979-95

How the projections were revised
The uncertainty of the projection process is indicated
by the changes from the 1978 set.8 (See table 7.) The
difference between the high and low in 1985 and 1990 is
about the same as that in the 1978 projections; the cur­
rent middle projection is midway between the previous
middle and high. Each scenario, high, middle, and low
was revised upward— the low one the most, to almost

54

Table 3.

Labor fo rce distribution by sex, age, and race, 1 9 7 5 -7 9 and projected to

1 9 9 5

[In percent]
A ctual

P rojected

Sax, ega, and race

M iddle g row th
1975

1979

Low g ro w th

H igh g ro w th

1985

1990

1995

1985

1980

1995

1985

1990

1995

Total, age 16 and o v e r ..........

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Men .........................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
16 to 19 ..................................
20 to 24 ..................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
25 to 34 ...................................
35 to 44 ...................................
45 to 54 ..................................
55 and O v e r..................................
55 to 64 ..................................
65 and o v e r ..............................

60.0
13.1
5.1
7.9
37.3
14.9
11.1
11.2
9.5
7.5
2.0

57.8
13.3
4.8
8.0
36.1
15.3
11.0
9.7
8.3
6.9
1.3

55.3
10.9
3.8
7.1
36.5
15.6
12.3
8.5
7.8
6.1
1.6

53.8
9.2
3.4
5.7
37.7
15.0
13.6
9.0
6.9
5.4
1.4

53.0
8.3
3.2
5.0
38.2
13.3
14.3
10.5
6.4
5.0
1.3

54.8
10.8
3.8
7.0
35.9
15.4
12.1
8.3
8.0
6.2
1.7

53.2
9.2
3.5
5.7
36.6
14.7
13.1
8.7
7.3
5.5
1.7

52.5
8.5
3.3
5.1
37.0
13.0
13.8
10.1
6.9
5.2
1.7

55.9
11.1
3.8
7.2
37.2
15.9
12.6
8.6
7.5
6.0
1.5

54.4
9.4
3.5
5.9
38.5
15.4
13.9
9.1
6.3
5.0
1.3

53.3
8.5
3.3
5.2
39.0
13.6
14.6
10.7
5.7
4.6
1.0

W o m e n ....................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
16 to 19 ..................................
20 to 24 ..................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
25 to 34 ..................................
35 to 44 ..................................
45 to 54 ..................................
55 and over ..................................
55 to 64 ..................................
65 and over .............................

39.9
10.9
4.3
6.5
23.3
9.1
7.0
7.1
5.6
4.5
1.1

42.1
11.1
4.3
6.8
25.4
10.8
7.9
6.6
5.5
4.4
1.1

44.6
10.3
3.6
6.6
29.2
13.0
10.1
6.1
5.1
4.0
1.0

46.1
9.2
3.4
5.8
32.2
13.5
11.9
6.7
4.6
3.6
1.0

46.9
8.7
3.3
5.4
33.7
12.5
13.0
8.1
4.4
3.5
.9

45.1
10.3
3.6
6.7
29.7
13.4
10.2
6.0
5.0
4.0
1.0

46.7
9.4
3.4
6.0
32.6
13.9
12.0
6.7
4.6
3.6
1.0

47.4
8.8
3.3
5.4
34.0
12.8
13.1
8.0
4.5
3.5
.9

44.0
10.2
3.6
6.6
28.6
12.5
9.9
6.1
5.1
4.1
1.0

45.5
9.1
3.4
5.7
31.6
13.1
11.7
6.8
4.6
3.6
1.0

46.6
8.6
3.3
5.3
33.4
12.3
13.0
8.1
4.5
3.5
.9

WHITE
88.6

88.0

87.2

86.5

85.6

86.8

85.8

84.7

87.2

86.5

85.9

53.8
11.6
33.4
8.7
34.7
9.5
20.0
5.0

51.5
11.3
32.1
8.0
36.4
9.7
21.7
4.9

48.9
9.6
32.2
7.0
38.3
8.9
24.9
4.5

47.2
8.0
32:9
6.2
39.2
7.9
27.2
4.0

46.1
7.2
33.1
5.7
39.5
7.4
28.2
3.8

48.2
9.3
31.6
7.2
38.6
8.8
25.2
4.4

46.2
7.7
31.9
6.5
39.5
7.8
27.6
4.0

45.1
6.9
31.9
6.1
39.6
7.2
28.5
3.8

49.4
9.7
32.8
6.8
37.7
8.9
24.3
4.5

47.8
8.2
33.8
5.7
38.7
7.9
26.7
4.0

46.6
7.4
34.0
5.0
39.3
7.4
28.0
3.8

Total, age 16 and o v e r ..........

11.3

11.9

12.7

13.4

14.3

13.1

14.1

15.2

12.7

13.4

14.0

Men .........................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
55 and o v e r ..................................
W o m e n ....................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
55 and over ...................................

6.1
1.4
3.8
.8
5.1
1.3
3.3
.6

6.2
1.5
3.9
.7
5.6
1.4
3.6
.6

6.4
1.3
4.3
.7
6.3
1.3
4.3
.6

6.6
1.1
4.7
.6
6.8
1.3
4.9
.6

6.8
1.0
5.0
.6
7.4
1.3
5.4
.6

6.6
1.5
4.3
.7
6.5
1.4
4.4
.6

6.9
1.4
4.7
.7
7.2
1.5
5.0
.6

7.4
1.5
7.3
.7
7.8
1.6
5.5
.6

6.4
1.3
4.3
.7
6.3
1.3
4.3
.6

6.5
1.1
4.6
.6
6.8
1.2
4.9
.6

6.7
1.1
4.9
.6
7.3
1.2
5.4
.6

Total, age 16 and o v e r ..........
Men .........................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
55 and over ..................................
W o m e n ....................................................
16 to 2 4 ..........................................
25 to 5 4 ..........................................
55 and over ..................................

.

(SLACK AMD OTHER

the level of the previous middle-growth path. The
changes reflect the effects of two additional years of ob­
servations, as well as changes in the assumptions made
for women age 20 to 44 mentioned earlier. They also re­
flect the general experience that it is more difficult to
project an increasing phenomenon.
In 1990, the projected number of women would be
about 2.5 million higher under each scenario, but the
proportion of the labor force in each major age group
differs among scenarios. Under both the high and mid­
dle scenarios, the number of young women in the labor
force would be smaller than in the previous projection,
reflecting their slower participation growth. For women
in the 20 to 44 age group, the 1978 projection included
an adjustment to the high-growth scenario to reflect ac­
celerating participation rates; in the current projection,
this assumption was formally introduced in both the



middle- and high-growth scenarios.
The differences between the two sets of projections
are less uniform for men. The number of men in the la­
bor force is essentially unchanged in the high-growth
scenario; in the low and middle scenarios the number of
men is projected to increase. The Bureau of Labor Sta­
tistics typically revised downward the number of men in
the labor force with each succeeding labor force projec­
tion (while increasing the number of women). These
changes reflect the slowing or ending of the decline in
male participation rates. For the high-growth scenario,
it is assumed that male participation rates will either
rise or at least hold constant.
To summarize, for each scenario, the number of
women expected to be in the labor force was revised
upward by about the same amount. For men, the highgrowth projection was approximately the same as the

55

last projection, the middle-growth path was revised up­
ward slightly, and the low-growth path was revised up­
ward significantly.
Possible consequences

A number of questions could be asked about the
possible consequences of the changes in the structure of
the population and of the labor force in these projec­
tions. Would these changes affect the ability of society
to maintain the responsibilities it has assumed, such as
social security? Could the changing composition of the
labor force make goals such as equal employment op­
portunity easier or more difficult to accomplish? Is there
potential for changes in productivity? Will there be
scarcities of certain kinds of workers? How would mi­
gration affect the composition of the labor force?
Societal responsibilities. One of the implications of these
projections is the change in the “economic dependency
ratios” for both the high and middle projections. The
economic dependency ratio is defined as all persons not
in the labor force (including those under age 16) divid­
ed by the total in the labor force.9 This ratio should
drop to below 100 nonworkers per 100 workers. Under
the conditions of the middle-growth pattern, the depen­

Tabl®

dency ratio would stabilize after 1990. Under the condi­
tions of the high-growth scenario, (which assumes
higher participation), the dependency ratio drops signifi­
cantly; in fact, it shows no sign of leveling off in this
century. Under the conditions of the low-growth projec­
tion, the dependency ratio would stabilize above the
100-nonworker-per-100-worker level, but well below
historic levels. The following tabulation shows depen­
dency ratios for 1965-79 and projected ratios for the
three scenarios, 1985-95:
_______

Projected__________

Actual
1965
1970
1975
1979

...................
...................
...................
...................

1985 ...................
1990 ...................
1995 ...................

Middle

151.8
138.5
125.4
110.1

...
...
...
...

......................
......................
......................
......................

98.8
95.6
94.5

93.5
87.0
84.4

...
...
...

High

Low

104.5
103.4
104.1

These favorable ratios are a characteristic of the age of
the baby-boom cohort and of the numbers of projected
births. A large labor force is combined with low births
to give low economic dependency ratios. As the baby-

7. Comparison o f the current and previous projections fo r 1985 and 1990

[Numbers in thousands]
1985

1880

G row th path, sex, and age
P re v io u s 1

C urrent

D iffe re n c e 2

P re v io u s 1

C urrent

D iffe re n c e 2

112,953
63,007
12,465
41,824
8,718
49,946
11,934
32,432
5,580

114,985
63,600
12,592
42,029
8,979
51,385
11,854
33,650
5,881

2,032
593
127
205
261
1,439
-8 0
1,218
301

119,366
65,115
11,156
45,845
8,114
54,251
11,225
37,713
5,313

122,375
65,880
11,282
46,147
8,451
56,495
11,325
39,469
5,701

3,039
765
126
302
337
2,244
100
1,756
388

117,005
65,013
12,882
42,533
9,598
51,992
12,510
33,596
5,886

118,252
64,825
12,873
42,473
9,479
53,427
12,235
35,163
6,029

1,247
-1 8 8
-9
-6 0
-1 1 9
1,435
-2 7 5
1,567
143

125,603
68,220
11,879
47,056
9,285
57,383
12,054
39,630
5,699

128,123
68,174
11,833
46,988
9,353
59,949
12,083
41,885
5,981

2,520
-4 6
-4 6
-6 8
68
2,566
29
2,256
282

108,900
61,169
12,134
41,219
7,816
47,731
11,315
31,220
5,196

111,706
62,458
12,445
41,584
8,429
49,248
11,477
32,020
5,751

2,808
1,289
311
365
613
1,517
162
800
555

113,521
62,472
10,744
44,844
6,884
51,049
10,375
35,942
4,732

117,394
63,888
11,099
45,287
7,502
53,506
10,800
37,198
5,508

3,873
1,416
355
443
618
2,457
425
1,256.
776

MIDDLE
Total, age 16 and over ........................................................................
Men ......................................................................................................................
16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................
25 to 5 4 .......................................................................................................
55 and o v e r ................................................................................................
W o m e n .................................................................................................................
16 to 2 4 .......................................................................................................
25 to 5 4 .......................................................................................................
55 and o v e r ................................................................................................
HIGH
Total, age 16 and over .......................................................................
Men ......................................................................................................................
16 to 2 4 .......................................................................................................
25 to 5 4 ........................................................................................................
55 and over ................................................................................................
W o m e n .................................................................................................................
16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................
25 to 5 4 .......................................................................................................
55 and o v e r ................................................................................................
LOW
Total, age 16 and over ........................................................................
Men .......................................................................................................................
16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................
25 to 5 4 ........................................................................................................
55 and o v e r ................................................................................................
W o m e n ..................................................................................................................
16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................
25 to 5 4 ........................................................................................................
55 and over ................................................................................................

1The previous projections were published in Paul 6 . Flaim and Howard N Fullerton, Jr., '.‘Labor force projections to 1990: Three possible paths,” M onthly Labor R eview , pp. 2 5 -3 5 ,




December 1978.
2 A minus sign indicates that the current projection is lower than the previous projection.

56

boom cohort leaves the prime working ages (after
2015), the dependency ratios should rise again, although
the higher mortality of older people will prevent it from
reaching the levels of the 1960’s. Differences in the
number of older people are a consequence of past fertili­
ty—not improvements in mortality— but if spectacular
increases in longevity occur, this could change.1 Thus,
0
the current difficulties of the social security system are
not a result of the current age composition of the popu­
lation. This favorable age composition effect on social
security almost certainly will reverse in the early part of
the next century.
Black-white differentials. One dilemma confronting labor
force forecasters and policymakers concerned with em­
ployment and training programs has been the continued
divergence of labor force participation between blacks
and whites in the prime-age groups. As recently as the
mid-1950’s, the rates for men were virtually the same;
but since then, the participation rates for black men
have dropped more rapidly than those for white men.
The high-growth scenario projects a possible return to
parity of their labor force rates. The extent to which
black rates have to increase is a measure of the prob­
lems that have to be confronted. In numbers, about 1.3
million more black men would participate in the high
than in the middle-growth path labor force. For wom­
en, the picture has been different; in 1979, the rate for
prime-age black women was higher than that for their
white counterparts (despite higher fertility among black
women). Moreover, participation of women in both
groups is increasing, although faster for whites.
The differences in female participation reflect the
greater family responsibilities of black women—more
are single parents than are whites, although the number
of such white women is increasing.1 The higher fertility
1
of black women obviously translates into higher popula­
tion growth and then into higher labor force growth.
Thus, the youth groups of the 1980’s and 1990’s will
have a higher proportion of blacks.

In the 1980’s and 1990’s, employers may have
increasing difficulty finding young workers. The decline
in the number of youths will be particularly important
to the Armed Forces— the largest single employer of
youths. Given the decrease in the youth labor force,
those who employ unskilled workers may also experi­
ence difficulty— depending to some extent on the Na­
tion’s immigration policy.
The growth of the prime-age labor force would
exceed that of the overall labor force by 20 percent. Be­
cause this is the experienced component of the labor
force, analysts who look for a shortage of skilled work­
ers must consider likely changes in the composition of
the prime-age labor force. More than half (59 percent)
of the growth is projected to be generated by women
and 22 percent by blacks (black women are in both
groups). Skilled and professional workers will have to
come from these groups in greater numbers than in the
past if there is not to be a shortage.
In the U.S. labor market, there is a tradition of male
occupations and of female occupations, and there has
been little change in this pattern.1 The growth in female
4
participation has occurred largely in occupations tradi­
tionally held by women. What would happen if demand
would no longer grow in those sectors? The argument
has been presented that higher participation would be
translated into greater continuity of work and, thus,
into more capacity to retain skills and professional abil­
ities that diminish if not used. Given that much of the
increase in female labor force activity will probably
come from mothers, employers may have to review their
personnel practices (such as provision of day care) to
attract these workers.1
5
By 1995, the youngest of the baby-boom generation
will be in their thirties. They may well face competition
for career positions which may result in frustration for
some and greater productivity for all. The older mem­
bers of the baby-boom generation will be in the pre­
retirement years and should be at the peak of their pro­
ductivity.

Productivity. One question raised by these projections is
the effect of a proportionally greater prime-age labor
force on productivity. The proportion of prime-age
workers will increase at least by 10 percentage points
(with the low-growth projection having the greatest
concentration in the prime ages). Analyses have cen­
tered on the relative size of the youth labor force (which
will diminish) and on the likely impact this would have
on productivity gains.1 The growing proportion of the
2
prime-age labor force should have a favorable impact
on productivity because of the greater continuity of par­
ticipation by women and because of the higher educa­
tional attainment of all age, sex, and ethnic compo­
nents.1
3

Immigration. Along with growth in the native adult
population and increased labor force activity, immigra­
tion represents a possible source of labor force growth.
For purposes of this discussion, migration can be divid­
ed into two groups, legal or “documented” migration
and illegal or “undocumented” migration. The Bureau
of the Census projects that “documented” net migration
will average 400,000 persons a year, with bulges in a
few years such as 1976 and 1980 when large numbers of
refugees reached our shores. To estimate the proportion
of the labor force growth that net migration represents,
we can look at 1979. The labor force participation rate
for those age 16 and older was 63.7 percent. If the com­
parable rate for the migrant population was about the




57

portant not to confuse the stock of undocumented
workers with the flow of documented workers discussed
in the preceding paragraph. The only information avail­
able about flows of undocumented workers is for Mexi­
cans. There appears to be considerable movement in
both directions netting to zero (with large seasonal fluc­
tuation). There is no way of ascertaining what portion
of undocumented workers, if any, are currently account­
ed for in existing labor force data. Therefore, no chang­
es have been made to the projections to account for
undocumented workers.
Obviously, these last few paragraphs have raised rath­
er than answered questions about the implications of the
changing structure of the labor force. The topics dis­
cussed here illustrate some uses for which these projec­
tions have been generated; there also are other uses. Q

same, and ignoring the fact that there are proportion­
ately fewer older persons in the migrant population,
some 173,000 would have been in the labor force in
1979, or about 7 percent of the actual labor force
growth.1 Documented workers vary from those with
6
high skills (the brain drain) and professional athletes to
lower skilled agricultural and service workers.
Undocumented workers also represent a variety of
skills, from college graduates to unskilled workers. By
their nature, we know little about these people as a
group. The discussion that follows is based on a study
conducted by Jacob S. Siegel, Jeffrey S. Passel, and J.
Gregory Robinson for the Select Commission on Immi­
gration and Refugee Policy.1 After a review of past esti­
7
mates, they concluded that there are 3 to 6 million
undocumented workers in the United States. It is im­

FOOTNOTES
tio.” See Henry S. Shryock, Jacob S. Siegel, and others, The Methods
and Materials o f Demography (Bureau of the Census, 1973), p. 235.
’“Jacob S. Siegel, “On the Demography of Aging,” Demography,
forthcoming, and Nathan Keyfitz, Applied Mathematical Deomography
(New York, John Wiley and Sons, 1977).
" Elizabeth Waldman and others, “Working mothers in the 1970’s:
a look at the statistics,” Monthly Labor Review, October 1979, pp. 39
-49.
1 George L. Perry, “Potential Output and Productivity,” Brookings
2
Papers on Economic Activity, 1977; J. R. Norsworthy, M. J. Harper,
and K. Kunze, “The Slowdown in Productivity Growth: Analysis of
Some Contributing Factors,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
1979; and the discussion by Martin Neil Baily, Edward F. Denison,
and Michael L. Wachter in the same issue.
1 Edward F. Denison, Accounting for United States Economic
3
Growth, 1929-1969 (Washington, The Brookings Institution, 1974),
and Accounting for Slower Economic Growth (Washington, The
Brookings Institution, 1979).
1 Valerie K. Oppenheimer, “Demographic Influence on Female Em­
4
ployment and the Status of Women,” in Joan Hamber, ed., Changing
Women in a Changing Society (Chicago, University of Chicago Press,
1973).
1 Peter F. Drucker, Managing in Turbulent Times (New York,
5
Harper and Row, 1980).
1 Projections o f the Population. . . . Table C-l contains the distribu­
6
tion of the immigrant population.
1 Jacob S. Siegel, Jeffery S. Passel, and J. Gregory Robinson, “Pre­
7
liminary Review of Existing Studies of the Number of Illegal
Residents in the United States” (Washington, Select Commission on
Immigration and Refugee Policy, 1980).

These projections replace those described by Paul O. Flaim and
Howard N Fullerton, Jr. in “Labor force projections to 1990: three
possible paths,” Monthly Labor Review, pp. 25-35, December 1978.
2 These scenarios are prepared by projecting the changes in the ra­
tio of the total labor force to the total population for each of 54 agesex-race groups; the levels of the anticipated labor force were calculat­
ed by applying the projected rates to the Bureau of the Census’ popu­
lation projections. The high and low scenarios do not represent
“confidence intervals,” but rather different views of the future. A
complete methodological statement is in preparation.
3The term “blacks” refers to black and other races, which includes
Negroes, American Indians, Eskimos, and others. At the time of the
1970 Census of Population, 89 percent of this population group was
black.
4 Projections o f the Population o f the United States: 1977 to 2050,
Current Population Reports (Bureau of the Census, Series P-25, No.
704, 1977). For an analysis of recent fertility trends, see Arthur A.
Campbell, “Baby Boom to Birth Dearth and Beyond,” Annals, Janu­
ary 1978, pp. 40-60.
5There is no standard definition of the baby-boom period; this arti­
cle uses the 1950’s, as described in Leon F. Bouvier, “America’s Baby
Boom Generation: The Fateful Bulge,” Population Bulletin, Vol. 35,
No. 1, 1980.
6 Projections o f the Population . . . , Table A-5. A moderate increase
in fertility is plausable because the Series II population projections are
tracking well at this time.
7 Projections o f the Population . . . , Table A-5.
8Flaim and Fullerton, “Labor force projections. . . . ” Projections
were not published for 1995.
"There is no standard definition of the “economic dependency ra­




58

Appendix A. Gross National Product and Components,
Selected Historical and Projected Years, 1963 to 1990




59

Table A-1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Actual

Projected

Sector
1967

1972
Low

T otal..........................................................................................
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives
1963

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

830503 1007284 1182760 1597947 1725780 1715750 1818222 2077928 2076188
1337 , 1510
485
716
700
1238
3114
7171
6315
10694

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

1545
557
887
1691
5367

1781
108
-350
2481
5377

6. Forestry and fishery products................. ..............................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................
9. Copper ore mining....................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper......................

-729
130
-532
1
-48

-1349
368
-627
-9
-161

-706
303
-534
-43
-120

1568
742
1268
7611
11325

1564
727
1226
7342
11077

1725
878
1320
8215
12308

1829
1042
1474
9515
13672

1856
1014
1399
8774
13147

-233
421
-543
-75
-127

-283
465
-632
-90
-131

-263
460
-635
-90
-128

-346
507
-572
-83
-84

-537
604
-746
-112
-116

-523
606
-780
-118
-125

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

954
-1596
638
2
7249

1040
-1169
757
89
7906

771
-2633
918
26
9454

2978
-4715
1034
74
10140

3180
-5389
1038
68
10210

3048
-5342
1029
60
10154

3751
-4426
1074
70
11020

4241
-5613
1123
54
11447

3855
-5668
1106
27
11491

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance ...............................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .............................. ..........................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s.......................................................

1844
4423
17385
9605
7476

5302
5251
19487
10941
8586

2879
3734
21195
11039
9707

2906
4890
23735
15412
12423

3004
4796
24545
16047
12904

2982
4746
24455
15995
12858

3291
5021
26005
16640
13426

3452
4869
27563
17750
14257

3514
4987
27901
18022
14451

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages ................................................................

2590
6897
-168
2243
4360

3564
7037
-117
2792
4803

4361
6903
60
2710
7471

6485
6726
288
2971
10950

6772
7013
217
3085
11039

6708
7000
222
3076
11002

7395
6778
295
3191
12753

7992
7239
204
3380
12899

7961
7379
218
3436
12879

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

2281
5685
7508
766
966

3903
6564
7453
627
1561

4676
6973
7078
537
2689

7638
8273
7263
851
4373

7977
8607
7448
812
4707

7948
8519
7369
776
4669

9282
9263
7333
937
5017

9950
9932
7625
851
5743

10100
9852
7486
718
5749

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods.................................................... ......
Apparel....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging....................................................................................

-236
751
17039
1706
132

-128
1002
18896
2504
275

-79
1487
19662
3107
391

94
1570
24528
3498
972

45
1721
26485
3858
1036

31
1724
26554
3816
988

-3
1671
28209
3853
1146

-110
1834
30725
4593
1291

-165
1854
31140
4679
1155

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

1661
3431
2
4520
2229

1911
3793
36
5184
2967

1953
6405
15
6754
3458

1423
8095
12
8520
4407

1314
8426
11
9171
5105

1303
8389
11
9135
5100

1434
8463
14
9441
5038

951
9265
11
10882
6698

892
9299
10
11165
6715

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

1476
185
1798
3180
1219

1835
227
2045
3776
1815

2739
255
1958
4138
2277

2575
291
2488
6774
2718

2537
308
2895
7255
2814

2484
304
2865
7194
2791

2760
325
2780
7922
2990

2615
369
3133
9056
3262

2467
363
3176
9073
3274

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals...........................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers ........................................................................

1929
303
935
398
115

2012
444
1519
459
44

1796
475
1328
562
-13

3817
1130
2039
1242
376

3869
1178
2105
1300
377

3698
1129
2065
1236
349

4680
1431
2314
1457
514

4853
1561
2468
1613
520

4392
1413
2393
1425
422

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and qllied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s ..............................
Plastic products............. ..........................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

2705
4403
588
11676
1695
956
797
-30
4122
662

3573
5927
678
14248
1780
1291
1157
-64
4383
826

5696
7581
917
14899
2675
1240
2065
-40
4122
907

10994
9477
1053
14818
2982
1268
5388
-66
4135
924

11208
10044
1096
16399
3295
1274
5658
-90
4353
936

11179
9941
1087
16363
3290
1268
5547
-94
4367
912

12853
10708
1196
14431
3203
1400
6693
-79
4455
1096

13731
12090
1329
16179
3903
1429
7495
-122
4684
1169

13562
12137
1324
16201
3860
1419
7350
-141
4744
1131

See footnotes at end of table.




60

Table A-1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972 .
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products.............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

5361
907
442
1469
2672

5592
799
370
1402
1127

6840
860
553
1640
-396

7293
934
534
2153
-1935

7548
965
537
2219
-2509

7528
960
527
2203
-2504

7691
986
562
2354
-3801

8407
1002
569
2586
-5287

8460
1002
565
2576
-5441

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ...........................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

586
2079
89
-807
92

583
1835
132
-1103
126

840
2695
-311
-1195
73

953
2964
-325
-2394
93

973
3022
-412
-2763
96

958
2991
-430
-2751
94

959
3211
-385
-2941
106

1024
3469
-586
-3746
121

993
3413
-667
-3824
115

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................

1349
8008
169
490
1290

1205
10031
313
716
1396

1370
11803
124
1025
1839

1513
15041
132
1714
2395

1580
15875
106
1792
2498

1568
15814
101
1725
2459

1668
16287
151
2047
2704

1750
18734
110
2289
2995

1745
18782
97
2134
2945

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

1619
1464
2888
4646
1466

2477
2218
4309
5476
2105

3588
2791
4533
6427
2295

4741
4078
7982
11807
3359

5012
4584
9096
13481
3930

4959
4502
9064
13257
3913

5267
4534
9659
14822
4209

6043
5693
12628
19227
5719

5948
5499
12540
18610
5688

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery................................ ........................
Special industry machinery ......................................................
General industrial machinery ...................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................... ............................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

3097
3634
3130
269
1798

4849
4784
3561
465
3284

4628
4772
3298
433
5325

6869
4849
5236
575
19729

8115
5756
6042
605
22538

8060
5707
5973
596
22178

8027
5000
6647
670
30012

10977
6923
8880
754
38771

10847
6769
8688
735
37680

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

772
2651
2422
1246
3668

1222
3882
3227
1966
4406

1142
4865
3725
1656
5952

2914
6567
5497
2398
7280

3381
7388
6246
2695
7999

3358
7338
6217
2663
7947

3500
7446
6605
3024
8316

4667
9426
8475
3809
9664

4629
9357
8440
3742
9855

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

2233
1907
1458
7523
779

2498
3408
2292
9530
1213

3113
3503
3102
7342
1414

3587
6154
4541
11761
5222

3807
7280
5408
12255
5458

3773
7127
5402
12195
5237

4174
6169
5516
14116
6535

4726
9209
7687
15631
7118

4706
9218
7684
15845
6438

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
1096
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
27202
98. Aircraft...................................................................................... , 13732
2220
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
1490
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

1488
31750
17537
3283
2377

1890
43373
12822
3988
1747

2975
56665
24729
5822
2922

3306
67456
25085
6363
3467

3273
67465
24703
6311
3457

3530
66511
29019
6987
3636

4275
86250
30658
8364
5092

4209
85908
30084
8447
5077

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

123
877
1905
735
400

214
1743
2334
1190
614

357
5037
2686
1691
917

496
4226
5732
3185
2156

611
4661
6378
3608
2336

590
4644
6319
3587
2327

596
4597
6611
3906
2745

912
5476
8141
5070
3371

926
5504
8044
5027
3350

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g oods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation.....................................................................

1013
300
1144
2302
1376
5118
4258
8023
3153
2597

2157
440
1651
2558
1741
5687
4510
9199
3419
5322

3569
322
2104
3622
2189
5596
4896
12312
3508
7224

7121
786
2429
4639
2667
6660
5345
14740
5496
13123

8185
810
2444
5409
2840
7138
5564
16055
5789
14132

8090
811
2447
5355
2806
7055
5570
15920
5629
13987

8615
838
2582
5132
2881
7431
5979
17153
6406
17066

11008
917
2899
6319
3274
8455
6246
19972
7027
19515

10820
908
2873
6353
3233
8341
6245
19890
6640
19187

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

241
196
0
8275
8508

344
142
0
11902
10868

388
411
0
17790
14554

537
536
0
34700
21444

577
571
0
38176
22716

568
557
0
37851
22537

636
655
0
42112
25020

700
749
0
49474
27454

674
702
0
49867
27868

See footnotes at end of table.




61

Table A-1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1990 alternatives

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding pu b lic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale tra d e .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...................

5093
2428
37667
29602
74866

5982
2684
46522
31766
91792

7009
2997
60941
36595
110451

6733
3691
79189
48630
138723

6760
3761
86561
51744
153251

6753
3756
85925
51701
152905

6675
4282
92533
55140
163565

6789
4505
109063
59383
190496

6725
4566
108766
60376
193007

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

9529
5226
14056
50347
26240

10512
8721
16676
60500
30792

15182
7776
19929
76688
41103

23590
10723
27720
116740
55412

23970
13492
28516
129850
60294

23808
13740
28515
130088
60196

27145
11775
33105
135401
62982

28177
15264
37085
157740
71635

28377
15559
37355
160714
72278

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

3388
9697
3935
5123
574

4522
11070
4515
7186
625

5993
12181
4310
8410
688

7973
12336
4133
14663
822

8746
14516
4495
15178
839

8694
14577
4504
15044
835

9145
13245
4067
16965
886

9868
16713
4873
18262
966

10091
17173
5024
18331
963

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

10383
9599
2411
5317
14441

11262
11583
2084
5834
18126

14406
14698
2062
6578
23306

20975
21911
4565
12350
35732

22004
23659
5191
13458
37304

21902
23571
5106
13323
37440

23937
26309
5250
15259
41997

27161
30631
6452
17803
47854

27673
30475
6409
18166
48538

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

11004
3991
8430
10096
1945

14676
4745
11013
11968
2550

22390
8241
12789
13105
2902

38017
13632
14048
17757
3377

39647
14392
14634
19184
3529

39397
14337
14738
19284
3501

46200
15933
15412
20545
3638

53742
19647
16481
24387
3949

54208
19796
16706
24939
4001

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation..............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
280
0
827
-4692

0
389
0
1053
-4423

0
421
0
2051
-5062

0
426
0
2607
-10856

0
461
0
2766
-13414

0
449
0
2759
-13234

0
507
0
2925
-18167

0
573
0
3280
-24432

0
547
0
3280
-24715

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

213
40518
100232
2080
6431
-251

-1353
49265
121953
5798
6442
-2127

-1761
54968
131948
6918
5349
-7591

-13030
59367
161167
14025
3986
-11519

-5287
61646
161167
14223
4068
-7000

-5356
61451
159998
12784
4065
-6941

-18389
65979
167585
14472
3962
-12897

-8362
72306
167585
14165
4004
-10246

-8629
72826
165869
9548
4013
-10189

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




62

T a b le A -2 . Peirsomal c o n s u m p tio n e x p e n d itu re s , s e le c te d h is to ric a l a n d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

996029 1084101 1082627 1149936 1319912 1339262

T otal..........................................................................................

501375

603172

738069

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

1486
172
0
3
3793

1716
190
0
247
4219

1269
185
0
163
4417

1437
340
0
187
5701

1492
396
0
195
6101

1490
392
0
195
6083

1644
484
0
201
6352

1746
615
0
215
7060

1778
624
0
220
7205

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper......................

623
21
0
0
0

249
168
0
0
0

848
125
0
0
0

1385
226
0
0
0

1499
263
0
0
0

1494
261
0
0
0

1628
296
0
0
0

1828
376
0
0
0

1864
382
0
0
0

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

304
0
18
2
0

221
0
5
3
0

125
0
5
3
0

89
0
5
3
0

104
0
5
3
0

103
0
5
3
0

113
0
5
3
0

126
0
6
4
0

130
0
6
4
0

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

233
0
17303
9048
7213

406
0
19540
9968
8122

457
0
20976
10318
9382

769
0
23311
14602
11969

898
0
24292
15228
12483

887
0
24249
15201
12460

883
0
25349
15726
12970

1120
0
27145
16797
13854

1136
0
27686
17137
14133

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

2006
6772
846
2217
4774

2858
6907
890
2759
5341

3525
6762
1021
2703
8105

5169
6600
1115
2988
11960

5394
6884
1163
3118
12235

5384
6872
1161
3112
12190

5762
6627
1201
3219
13951

6159
7081
1284
3440
14442

6285
7225
1310
3511
14452

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering m ills .................................................................

2172
4914
6890
796
804

3777
5912
6545
720
1269

4511
5975
6087
639
1391

7266
6796
5980
821
2316

7582
7088
6098
912
2506

7568
7075
6073
912
2476

8816
7438
5923
940
2816

9424
7945
6026
1069
3195

9618
8106
6032
1089
3191

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

131
732
17213
1556
50

141
959
19213
2047
30

123
1551
21012
2775
5

150
1726
27289
3057
3

165
1919
29742
3429
4

163
1923
29799
3396
4

179
1855
31500
3409
4

206
2083
35023
4146
4

208
2116
35566
4254
4

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture.................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

0
242
0
3821
228

0
304
0
4520
278

0
380
0
5706
257

0
521
0
7365
347

0
564
0
7914
375

0
556
0
7884
371

0
640
0
8163
428

0
728
0
9277
485

0
727
0
9573
485

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

1589
89
1788
2247
592

1782
86
2036
2509
808

2389
106
1949
2901
880

2565
98
2475
5223
1033

2785
108
2884
5726
1128

2778
108
2855
5688
1123

2941
111
2767
6167
1179

3288
126
3120
7258
1356

3339
128
3165
7340
1390

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals...........................
Agricultural chemicals.............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

14
77
277
0
0

21
109
295
0
0

20
153
375
0
0

29
253
456
0
0

32
278
505
0
0

32
277
504
0
0

32
296
544
0
0

38
334
626
0
0

39
339
633
0
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s ..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

2013
4081
28
9004
1392
734
165
0
4364
375

2613
5435
60
10924
1483
911
380
0
4760
523

4175
7069
123
13503
2594
1081
688
0
4923
563

7380
8662
114
12081
3238
1197
2080
0
5407
587

7541
9209
125
13183
3652
1246
2267
0
5834
638

7585
9127
125
13175
3649
1244
2218
0
5836
626

8530
9596
132
11481
3533
1389
2613
0
5750
723

9108
10852
149
12693
4423
1526
3008
0
6342
831

9146
10954
151
12742
4420
1541
3042
0
6427
838

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

See footnotes at end of table.




63

Table A-2. Personal consumption expenditures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
High I

Low

High II '

Low

High II

High I

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

3
0
287
143
14

3
0
305
164
5

1
0
414
206
5

2
0
484
323
4

2
0
525
349
5

2
0
514
348
5

2
0
532
337
5

2
0
608
408
6

2
0
612
423
6

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

0
4
13
0
0

0
8
10
0
0

0
8
20
0
0

0
9
26
0
0

0
10
28
0
0

0
10
27
0
0

0
11
31
0
0

0
14
35
0
0

0
14
36
0
0

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware.............................

63
19
41
333
578

39
21
52
416
705

80
49
40
421
849

94
68
38
405
1092

105
74
43
439
1178

105
73
42
429
1162

120
84
44
487
1240

145
95
53
559
1431

149
95
55
564
1436

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

153
154
13
0
0.

202
167
42
0
0

299
138
66
0
0

318
236
92
0
0

348
275
99
0
0

344
270
98
0
0

367
269
113
0
0

421
356
128
0
0

426
360
128
0
0

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

92
25
0
3
0

95
24
0
5
0

168
45
0
18
12

234
63
0
28
307

254
69
0
31
333

251
68
0
31
329

289
78
0
35
403

328
89
0
41
458

328
89
0
41
458

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

142
393
9
16
2573

149
466
12
19
3447

199
486
29
24
4573

297
587
30
34
5924

322
659
34
37
6620

318
655
33
36
6577

362
646
34
42
6575

411
779
40
48
7754

410
800
40
48
7980

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

530
1678
0
82
172

668
3503
0
63
165

926
4817
17
78
319

1193
9763
23
155
634

1329
11505
25
183
746

1318
11333
25
180
735

1436
11720
29
184
753

1676
16345
33
257
1049

1689
16513
33
260
1060

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir..........................................
100. Railroad equipment................................................. ...............

525
15560
60
267
0

764
19145
60
479
0

1156
28380
106
973
0

1668
37333
181
1668
0

1884
44495
211
1940
0

1878
44679
208
1910
0

1960
42403
206
1898
0

2361
53114
273
2516
0

2376
53794
277
2545
0

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

225
139
22
156
275

361
457
30
207
407

1313
1628
33
275
486

2102
1383
47
395
799

2444
1635
50
411
864

2407
1632
49
413
865

2367
1466
55
499
886

3137
1874
61
568
1104

3174
1898
62
573
1117

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

448
388
1322
2068
880
2474
3818
3429
800
1941

780
521
1867
2413
1131
2715
3846
3975
643
3575

1072
524
2255
3396
1343
2486
4158
6675
1028
5806

2155
936
2685
4932
1679
2863
4681
7563
1237
9589

2493
1004
2791
5789
1839
3101
4907
8142
1335
10578

2471
1006
2804
5742
1825
3098
4914
8117
1332
10572

2651
1048
2921
5491
1960
3299
5280
8672
1427
12416

3294
1225
3399
6791
2284
3709
5535
9846
1609
14723

3348
1232
3431
6906
2313
3761
5532
10001
1625
14834

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services............... ..........................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private........................................

167
25
0
6249
7066

230
104
0
8920
8949

290
196
0
12879
12220

300
243

328
259
0
29366
20358

327
258
0
29110
20181

335
274

366
318
0
37753
24972

367
314

See footnotes at end of table.




64

0

26690
19093

0

32385
22577

0

38245
25366

T a b le A -2. P e rs o n al c o n s u m p tio n e x p e n d itu re s , s e le c te d h is to ric a l a n d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 199 0 — C o n tin u e d

(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...................

4855
2351
24284
30451
66170

5723
2580
29563
32556
83533

6555
2801
38163
37496
102158

6591
3434
44825
49486
129662

6708
3495
48532
52502
143142

6700
3492
48390
52463
142816

6651
4000
51228
56226
153651

6957
4212
58334
60409
178045

6915
4270
58974
61371
180511

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate...........................................................................

7517
5049
13389
50347
21524

8527
8516
16020
60500
25583

12374
7579
19082
76688
31977

19665
10527
26658
116740
43926

20018
13263
27442
129850
48265

19892
13512
27460
130088
48358

23174
11585
31962
135401
50402

23989
15020
35894
157740
57781

24228
15318
36218
160714
58793

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

2659
9295
3935
618
165

3666
10606
4515
1342
179

5274
11362
4310
1901
123

6788
11486
4133
3100
150

7543
13623
4495
3487
158

7497
13686
4504
3464
159

7987
12266
4067
3608
169

8687
15591
4873
4493
204

8884
16046
5024
4588
215

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair...................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

4233
8998
1801
5743
14073

4952
10810
1598
6213
17436

5350
13780
1672
6998
21676

9005
20954
3421
12700
33165

9661
22662
3986
13798
34724

9642
22576
3946
13660
34864

10806
25291
3926
15616
39307

12986
29529
4990
18169
45037

13546
29365
5062
18522
45716

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

10304
3445
6556
9997
1467

13248
3539
8664
11861
1781

19745
4898
11124
13025
1869

33517
9016
12014
17647
2128

35126
9740
12588
19072
2276

34880
9690
12750
19175
2259

41322
10785
13220
20429
2314

48634
14201
14295
24264
2592

49085
14355
14546
24826
2642

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation..............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
182
0
761
3785

0
268
0
982
5332

0
300
0
1987
6550

0
157
0
2537
6457

0
175
0
2692
7076

0
175
0
2686
7095

0
189
0
2855
7268

0
214
0
3204
8638

0
224
0
3205
8788

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................

1761
0
0
-1815
6431
0

2639
0
0
-2587
6442
0

2163
0
0
-3524
5349
0

2279
0
0
-7172
3986
0

2737
0
0
-7831
4068
0

2748
0
0
-7855
4065
0

3184
0
0
-7916
3961
0

4022
0
0
-9466
4003
0

4077
0
0
-9591
4013
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




65

Table A-3. Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Actual

Projected

Sector

1985 alternatives
1963

1967

1990 alternatives

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

T otal..........................................................................................

124491

152600

195279

246388

292733

292521

286821

390171

392600

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

2
662
-69
256
1053

-6
195
122
932
118

-20
459
289
1336
556

-25
551
454
1830
764

-25
562
463
1867
783

-25
557
459
1851
777

-29
601
508
2032
835

-35
723
611
2443
992

-35
719
607
2430
988

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining....................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

86
48
-65
-5
34

7
113
31
6
73

18
81
8
23
202

26
91
13
23
211

27
95
13
23
257

26
95
13
23
258

35
96
18
28
284

42
107
22
33
413

42
108
22
33
415

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

0
32
261
-1
28

214
314
226
6
24

81
129
416
-8
27

117
163
541
-12
30

119
182
564
-12
31

118
181
562
-12
31

130
186
617
-13
32

156
246
688
-16
36

155
246
692
-16
36

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

1
-23
257
15
39

138
104
287
55
295

81
71
294
69
134

50
140
375
84
170

52
175
383
86
174

51
175
380
85
172

80
203
415
90
188

95
299
498
108
227

94
301
496
108
225

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
S ugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

81
24
142
36
75

77
25
55
53
191

188
14
12
31
254

246
18
15
39
348

251
18
16
40
356

249
18
16
39
353

275
20
20
42
391

331
25
25
50
468

329
24
24
50
466

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

32
136
39
41
174

49
92
235
130
275

39
233
223
279
1281

50
307
289
384
2066

51
313
295
392
2226

50
311
292
389
2222

55
340
293
448
2214

66
409
352
538
2596

66
406
351
535
2617

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel..................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

116
15
89
48
-5

112
40
319
55
5

150
89
660
169
11

292
131
945
245
14

302
134
964
250
14

300
133
956
248
14

335
154
1120
281
17

394
185
1346
338
20

394
184
1339
336
20

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household ..............................

1982
3188
1
749
1663

2318
3273
3
638
2199

2815
6227
3
1122
2679

2945
7800
-6
1302
3367

3092
8191
-6
1452
4062

3082
8168
-6
1448
4068

3090
8195
-6
1512
3848

3458
9138
-7
1954
5475

3488
9221
-7
1959
5506

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

347
47
4
103
69

478
46
2
157
211

500
64
14
96
173

627
90
23
163
255

650
92
23
167
260

647
91
23
166
258

693
103
25
183
288

798
123
30
220
345

800
123
30
219
344

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

189
30
141
13
12

288
89
134
42
-19

282
66
294
87
-14

344
92
364
134
-24

391
94
376
136
-24

390
93
374
135
-24

411
99
417
158
-30

544
119
478
191
-36

546
118
479
190
-36

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b es..............................
Plastic products........................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

106
78
377
985
93
89
406
-13
-67
216

123
110
414
1294
97
103
459
-8
27
183

212
169
557
958
288
149
1113
45
209
289

353
195
659
1023
344
176
2590
52
234
365

360
199
686
1066
354
188
2700
53
239
376

357
197
684
1063
352
187
2688
53
237
374

407
401
758
1163
383
186
3049
63
281
423

490
482
857
1297
448
222
3484
76
338
493

487
479
862
1306
447
223
3500
75
336
493

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

V

See footnotes at end of table.




66

Table A-3. Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

3615
747
211
976
2054

3473
636
196
860
1892

4676
759
328
1132
1965

5518
852
368
1534
1877

5779
894
383
1596
1945

5763
891
382
1591
1938

6012
913
412
1701
2133

6681
1015
462
1904
2407

6739
1024
465
1916
2417

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

386
1515
126
22
53

314
1839
166
131
92

205
2451
-12
108
45

235
2722
-29
162
55

245
2842
-29
165
59

245
2832
-29
164
58

259
2997
-38
207
61

292
3388
-47
248
77

294
3407
-47
247
77

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings.....*................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................

1063
5306
95
97
555

951
6567
111
43
429

1136
8714
91
155
840

1235
11265
118
205
1008

1292
12081
121
209
1058

1288
12055
121
207
1054

1340
12287
136
226
1117

1501
14589
159
271
1290

1512
14680
159
269
1296

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c. ...........................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

1021
596
2661
2811
1200

1534
1056
4093
3358
1769

2817
1779
4396
4344
2068

3496
2145
7236
6894
2945

3786
2576
8561
8284
3515

3778
2579
8575
8293
3519

4029
2362
8714
8831
3759

4853
3363
12210
12566
5272

4877
3379
12276
12631
5302

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

2325
2926
2231
30
1089

4347
4215
2647
87
2382

4016
4382
2652
106
3738

5515
4529
4325
138
11051

6718
5521
5188
149
13486

6729
5530
5195
149
13510

6430
4794
5729
160
17214

9286
6925
8118
204
24875

9337
6963
8163
203
25018

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

410
1733
1784
728
987

671
2606
2476
1171
902

616
3434
3053
1124
1595

2121
4564
4382
1526
2008

2599
5274
5176
1829
2153

2604
5274
5181
1831
2147

2671
5281
5289
1903
2639

3880
7058
7289
2704
3112

3903
7098
7331
2716
3133

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

1185
278
1267
1335
90

1192
251
2032
2384
174

1628
486
2896
1534
13

1922
854
4147
3042
197

2026
930
5034
3711
206

2019
926
5042
3718
204

2234
991
5036
4409
264

2586
1275
7251
6371
325

2599
1275
7289
6409
323

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

328
8347
1092
447
1247

334
10635
5259
941
2146

580
17541
2183
1375
1492

957
24413
3087
1859
2636

1128
29694
3712
2203
3173

1128
29742
3716
2203
3177

1267
27407
3665
2318
3386

1770
39503
5230
3269
4839

1777
39717
5255
3282
4862

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c..............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

10
721
832
349
119

56
1296
1094
615
206

131
3455
1512
1041
459

178
2866
3295
1998
1449

193
3066
3909
2396
1626

192
3059
3913
2398
1628

204
3162
3828
2523
1970

261
3673
5297
3597
2527

261
3705
5329
3614
2539

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation.....................................................................

190
17
10
306
363
1247
5
2034
75
131

692
8
40
321
490
1208
7
1656
74
216

1695
37
190
494
703
1395
11
2425
180
150

3261
55
261
680
851
1650
13
2692
210
173

3995
56
266
780
976
1802
13
3300
222
198

4003
56
264
779
976
1798
13
3295
222
198

3910
65
285
869
901
1841
14
2996
224
184

5678
78
343
1186
1204
2268
15
4284
261
238

5711
78
341
1188
1208
2279
15
4309
262
239

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services.................................................. ......
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private........................................

9
0
0
1115
143

15
0
0
1548
30

7
0
0
2439
41

9
1
0
3286
46

9
1
0
3975
48

9
1
0
3981
48

11
1
0
4017
50

13
1
0
5726
55

13
1
0
5761
56

See footnotes at end of table.




67

T a b le A -3 . G ro s s p riv a te d o m e s tic in v e s tm e n t, s e le c te d h is to ric a l a n d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 199 0 — C o n tin u e d

(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

4
56
6125
306
8115

7
14
7234
434
7466

5
80
11838
423
7557

5
90
15410
472
8236

6
94
17634
495
9254

6
94
17628
494
9249

6
97
18242
512
9038

6
108
24119
567
11487

7
109
24255
572
11576

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

229
14
247
0
3191

192
16
266
0
3240

286
26
263
0
5012

320
29
293
0
5601

335
31
307
0
5895

335
31
306
0
5881

346
32
320
0
6093

384
36
355
0
6747

387
36
358
0
6818

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

6
75
0
457
102

10
125
0
996
91

15
200
0
971
43

16
212
0
1340
48

17
258
0
1402
50

17
258
0
1398
50

18
282
0
1481
52

20
407
0
1643
57

20
409
0
1657
58

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

2928
316
9
9
0

3078
319
-67
12
0

4507
318
-164
9
0

5962
354
8
11
0

6233
370
8
11
0

6216
369
8
11
0

6574
390
31
11
0

7292
432
37
13
0

7353
436
37
13
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations..........................................................
Post o ffic e ...............................................................................

0
0
2
66
25

0
0
2
71
26

0
0
2
47
29

0
0
3
52
33

0
0
3
55
34

0
0
3
55
34

0
0
3
57
35

0
0
3
63
39

0
0
3
63
39

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
0
0
4
41

0
0
0
20
-104

0
0
0
5
43

0
0
0
6
49

0
0
0
6
52

0
0
0
6
51

0
0
0
7
53

0
0
0
7
61

0
0
0
7
62

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

-2363
27667
0
0
0
-251

-4609
32323
0
0
0
-2127

-5114
41386
0
0
0
-7591

-16186
45003
0
0
0
-11519

-8660
47119
0
0
0
-7000

-8667
46993
0
0
0
-6941

-21441
51437
0
0
0
-12897

-11428
57038
0
0
0
-10246

-11509
57540
0
0
0
-10189

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




68

Table A-4. Producers’ durable equipment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

T ota l..........................................................................................

42714

62407

77273

113907

145419

145713

141992

214486

215741

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

0
0
0
0
35

0
0
0
0
65

0
0
0
0
199

0
0
0
0
207

0
0
0
0
254

0
0
0
0
254

0
0
0
0
282

0
0
0
0
410

0
0
0
0
412

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

0
12
0
0
0

0
18
0
0
0

0
53
0
0
0

0
73
0
0
0

0
90
0
0
0

0
90
0
0
0

0
88
0
0
0

0
128
0
0
0

0
129
0
0
0

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

0
12
0
0
0

0
34
0
0
0

0
80
0
0
0

0
152
0
0
0

0
187
0
0
0

0
187
0
0
0

0
217
0
0
0

0
315
0
0
0

0
317
0
0
0

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar........................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

0
0
0
0
52

0
0
0
0
83

0
0
0
0
244

0
0
0
0
314

0
0
0
0
385

0
0
0
0
386

0
0
0
0
356

0
0
0
0
518

0
0
0
0
521

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

1
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0

3
0
0
0
0

2
0
0
0
0

2
0
0
0
0

2
0
0
0
0

3
0
0
0
0

4
0
0
0
0

4
0
0
0
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

0
7
0
153
1481

0
9
0
190
1978

0
5
0
570
2388

0
5
0
568
3015

0
6
0
697
3697

0
6
0
698
3704

0
4
0
645
3468

0
6
0
938
5042

0
6
0
943
5071

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

45
0
0
0
0

83
0
0
0
0

164
0
0
0
0

188
0
0
0
0

231
0
0
0
0

231
0
0
0
0

228
0
0
0
0

331
0
0
0
0

333
0
0
0
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s ..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

0
0
0
0
0
22
3
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
36
6
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
31
11
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
29
16
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
36
20
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
36
20
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
24
23
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
35
33
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
35
33
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

See footnotes at end of table.




69

Table A-4. Producers’ durable equipment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1972

1967

1963

High I

Low

High II

Low

High II

High I

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

1
41
0
0
12

1
45
0
0
14

2
64
0
0
13

1
80
0
0
14

2
98
0
0
18

2
99
0
0
18

2
89
0
0
14

3
129
0
0
21

3
130
0
0
21

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware.............................

0
665
0
0
15

0
1131
0
0
24

0
1197
0
0
30

0
1961
0
0
48

0
2404
0
0
58

0
2409
0
0
59

0
2598
0
0
61

0
3776
0
0
89

0
3798
0
0
90

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

299
557
2596
2500
930

389
984
3606
3116
1373

683
1606
4202
3774
1641

881
1886
6917
6053
2445

1080
2312
8235
7421
2998

1082
2317
8252
7436
3004

1001
2078
8334
7851
3172

1456
3021
11752
11414
4611

1464
3039
11821
11480
4638

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

2243
2889
1912
10
1062

4150
4104
2344
7
2272

3878
4261
2170
39
3713

5304
4373
3720
40
10727

6503
5361
4561
48
13151

6516
5372
4571
49
13178

6189
4616
5045
48
16697

8997
6711
7334
69
24274

9050
6750
7377
70
24416

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

389
1303
1483
682
130

621
1965
2095
1082
142

610
2078
2318
992
215

2113
2834
3325
1322
301

2591
3475
4077
1620
369

2596
3482
4085
1624
370

2661
3355
4074
1660
401

3869
4878
5922
2413
582

3891
4906
5957
2427
586

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

66
118
1284
1263
99

78
119
1939
1834
20

82
184
2748
1444
14

160
279
3906
2938
21

197
342
4789
3602
26

197
343
4798
3610
26

230
355
4756
4294
26

335
516
6914
6243
38

337
519
6955
6279
39

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c..............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft.....................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

250
7497
604
476
1221

255
10978
2945
712
2190

414
16664
1981
1145
1491

727
23260
2738
1488
2352

892
28517
3357
1824
2884

893
28575
3364
1828
2890

998
26061
3272
1915
3052

1451
37886
4756
2784
4437

1459
38108
4784
2800
4463

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c..............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

8
111
535
321
116

35
173
738
579
199

46
184
1146
973
393

57
314
2595
1739
1314

70
385
3182
2132
1488

71
386
3188
2136
1491

64
425
3030
2241
1784

93
618
4405
3258
2303

93
622
4431
3277
2316

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

172
1
0
284
273
282
0
508
6
16

611
1
0
240
344
388
0
615
8
41

1682
1
0
323
443
380
0
673
24
81

3245
2
0
424
509
461
0
693
23
93

3978
2
0
520
624
565
0
1217
28
114

3987
2
0
521
625
566
0
1220
28
114

3891
2
0
561
522
548
0
787
19
95

5657
3
0
815
759
797
0
1799
28
137

5690
3
0
820
764
801
0
1809
28
138

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private........................................

0
0
0
951
0

0
0
0
1353
0

0
0
0
2167
0

0
0
0
2982
0

0
0
0
3656
0

0
0
0
3663
0

0
0
0
3687
0

0
0
0
5361
0

0
0
0
5392
0

See footnotes at end of table.




70

T a b le A=4„ P ro d u c e rs ’ d u ra b le e q u ip m e n t, s e le c te d h is to ric a l a n d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 199 0 — C o n tin u e d

(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Actual

Projected

Sector

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives
1967

1963

1972
High I

Low

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...................

0
0
3012
0
3278

0
0
4168
0
3235

0
0
6421
0
2677

0
0
8628
0
3417

0
0
10578
0
4189

0
0
10600
0
4198

0
0
10834
0
4260

0
0
15751
0
6193

0
0
15843
0
6229

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

0
73
0
0
0

0
123
0
0
0

0
192
0
0
0

0
202
0
0
0

0
248
0
0
0

0
249
0
0
0

0
272
0
0
0

0
395
0
0
0

0
398
0
0
0

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
0
0
0
1

0
0
0
0
3

0
0
0
0
5

0
0
0
0
3

0
0
0
0
3

0
0
0
0
3

0
0
0
0
5

0
0
0
0
7

0
0
0
0
7

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................

-1649
0
0
0
0
0

-3480
0
0
0
0
0

-3933
0
0
0
0
0

-9578
0
0
0
0
0

-5976
0
0
0
0
0

-5988
0
0
0
0
0

-11276
0
0
0
0
0

-8331
0
0
0
0
0

-8380
0
0
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




71

Table A-5. Nonresidential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High II

High I

High I

Low

High II

T ota l..........................................................................................

30823

41009

42478

46296

49362

49205

55699

62750

63100

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

0
0
0
1
35

0
0
0
2
25

0
0
0
3
18

0
0
0
4
20

0
0
0
4
21

0
0
0
4
21

0
0
0
4
24

0
0
0
5
27

0
0
0
5
27

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

0
22
0
0
0

0
57
0
0
0

0
13
0
0
0

0
14
0
0
0

0
14
0
0
0

0
14
0
0
0

0
16
0
0
0

0
18
0
0
0

0
18
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

0
0
145
0
11

0
0
144
0
14

0
0
227
0
8

0
0
297
0
9

0
0
308
0
9

0
0
307
0
9

0
0
367
0
10

0
0
408
0
12

0
0
410
0
12

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

5
0
9
0
0

2
0
8
0
0

4
0
2
0
0

5
0
2
0
0

5
0
2
0
0

5
0
2
0
0

6
0
2
0
0

6
0
2
0
0

6
0
3
0
0

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
S ugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages ................................................................

0
0
0
2
11

0
0
0
1
1

0
0
0
1
5

0
0
0
1
5

0
0
0
1
6

0
0
0
1
6

0
0
0
2
6

0
0
0
2
7

0
0
0
2
7

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................
Floor covering m ills .................................................................

0
0
3
0
1

0
0
3
0
10

0
0
2
0
32

0
0
2
0
35

0
0
2
0
36

0
0
2
0
36

0
0
3
0
42

0
0
3
0
46

0
0
3
0
47

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c..................................................:....
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................
Logging....................................................................................

27
0
9
1
3

10
0
13
1
4

5
0
2
1
2

5
0
3
1
2

5
0
3
1
2

5
0
3
1
2

6
0
3
1
2

7
0
3
1
2

7
0
4
1
3

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture ................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

200
482
0
7
96

269
785
0
5
111

173
888
0
3
91

191
977
0
3
100

197
1011
0
3
104

197
1007
0
3
104

227
1164
0
3
120

253
1294
0
4
133

254
1301
0
4
134

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

95
4
0
2
6

83
0
0
1
5

58
1
0
2
5

64
2
0
2
5

66
2
0
2
5

66
2
0
2
5

76
2
0
2
6

85
2
0
2
7

85
2
0
2
7

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals...........................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

68
2
84
0
0

19
0
77
0
0

49
1
114
0
0

54
1
125
0
0

56
1
130
0
0

56
1
129
0
0

65
2
149
0
0

72
2
166
0
0

73
2
167
0
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs.......................................................................................
Cleaning and-toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products...............................
Tires and inner tu b es..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s ..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

0
0
94
455
32
28
161
0
1
32

0
0
153
498
41
13
183
0
1
112

0
0
156
548
48
9
210
0
1
75

0
0
171
552
53
10
270
0
1
83

0
0
177
571
55
10
280
0
1
86

0
0
177
570
54
10
279
0
1
85

0
0
204
668
63
11
321
0
1
99

0
0
227
743
70
13
357
0
1
110

0
0
228
747
70
13
359
0
1
110

_____
See footnotes at end of table.




72

_____

Table A-5. Nonresidential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

1286
333
80
519
1292

1861
288
83
560
1118

1702
162
136
618
1149

1873
179
150
831
1164

1938
185
155
860
1205

1932
184
155
857
1201

2232
213
179
960
1307

2482
237
199
1068
1453

2496
238
200
1074
1461

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

267
833
15
4
0

230
1177
7
20
0

70
1613
13
1
0

77
1716
14
1
0

80
1776
15
1
0

79
1770
15
1
0

92
1914
17
1
0

102
2128
19
1
0

103
2140
19
1
0

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .............................

328
2851
68
38
134

304
3940
26
7
159

246
4820
21
7
181

271
6002
24
8
199

280
6212
24
8
206

279
6192
24
8
206

323
6421
28
10
238

359
7139
31
11
264

361
7178
32
11
266

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

347
0
0
218
204

691
0
0
167
289

1719
0
0
164
319

2090
0
0
181
351

2163
0
0
187
363

2156
0
0
186
362

2453
0
0
215
419

2727
0
0
240
465

2742
0
0
241
468

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Speciaf industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

1
0
153
3
0

1
0
33
23
0

4
0
141
3
0

4
0
155
3
0

4
0
160
3
0

4
0
160
3
0

5
0
185
3
0

6
0
205
4
0

6
0
207
4
0

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

0
254
240
22
6

0
271
207
7
38

0
358
322
16
44

0
518
463
18
48

0
536
479
18
50

0
535
477
18
50

0
627
553
21
58

0
697
614
24
64

0
701
618
24
65

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

601
1
0
42
0

649
1
0
40
0

925
1
0
30
0

1017
2
0
33
0

1052
2
0
34
0

1049
2
0
34
0

1212
2
0
40
0

1348
2
0
44
0

1355
2
0
44
0

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c..............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

14
28
0
0
0

20
18
0
0
0

15
12
0
0
0

16
14
0
0
0

17
14
0
0
0

17
14
0
0
0

19
16
0
0
0

21
18
0
0
0

22
18
0
0
0

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c..............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

0
55
166
0
0

0
60
145
0
0

0
156
227
0
0

0
165
442
0
0

0
171
458
0
0

0
170
456
0
0

0
238
511
0
0

0
265
568
0
0

0
266
571
0
0

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

4
7
1
1
23
288
2
779
31
54

1
2
1
1
40
298
2
533
24
61

4
3
1
1
19
232
3
687
49
18

4
3
1
1
21
255
4
755
54
20

4
3
1
1
21
264
4
782
56
21

4
3
1
1
21
263
4
779
56
21

5
3
1
2
25
304
4
901
64
24

6
4
1
2
27
338
5
1001
71
27

6
4
1
2
27
340
5
1007
72
27

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private........................................

6
0
0
62
54

5
0
0
118
18

4
0
0
82
12

4
0
0
90
14

4
0
0
93
14

4
0
0
93
14

5
0
0
107
16

5
0
0
119
18

6
0
0
120
18

See footnotes at end of table.




73

T a b le A-5. Nonresidential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1990 alternatives

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale tra d e ......................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

2
22
1051
138
1232

4
8
1192
239
1341

1
24
1700
127
982

2
26
2429
140
1030

2
27
2514
144
1065

2
27
2506
144
1062

2
31
2858
166
1227

2
35
3178
185
1365

2
35
3196
186
1372

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

86
5
133
0
457

116
9
160
0
689

86
10
96
0
616

95
11
105
0
745

98
11
109
0
771

98
11
109
0
769

113
13
126
0
680

125
15
140
0
756

126
15
140
0
760

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

1
1
0
209
46

2
1
0
604
55

4
2
0
411
13

5
3
0
593
14

5
3
0
614
15

5
3
0
612
15

6
3
0
707
17

6
4
0
786
19

7
4
0
790
19

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

1420
121
0
5
0

1642
198
0
4
0

2161
134
0
3
0

2875
148
0
3
0

2975
153
0
3
0

2966
152
0
3
0

3370
176
0
4
0

3747
195
0
4
0

3768
197
0
4
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

0
0
1
25
9

0
0
1
41
16

0
0
1
14
8

0
0
1
15
9

0
0
1
16
9

0
0
1
16
9

0
0
1
18
11

0
0
1
20
12

0
0
1
20
12

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c.......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
0
0
2
3

0
0
0
12
6

0
0
0
2
10

0
0
0
2
11

0
0
0
2
11

0
0
0
2
11

0
0
0
2
13

0
0
0
2
15

0
0
0
2
15

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

-646
12658
0
0
0
0

-139
18617
0
0
0
0

-125
17137
0
0
0
0

-2432
18150
0
0
0
0

-1068
18784
0
0
0
0

-1064
18724
0
0
0
0

-1964
22471
0
0
0
0

-1357
24982
0
0
0
0

-1365
25121
0
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




74

Table A-6. Residential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
High I

Low

High II

Low

High I

High II

T otal..........................................................................................

43193

37178

65180

71168

77894

77714

71375

86301

87275

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton........................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

0
0
0
9
321

0
0
0
5
33

0
0
0
15
91

0
0
0
17
103

0
0
0
18
108

0
0
0
18
108

0
0
0
18
107

0
0
0
20
118

0
0
0
20
119

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

0
25
0
0
0

0
57
0
0
0

0
69
0
0
0

0
77
0
0
0

0
81
0
0
0

0
81
0
0
0

0
80
0
0
0

0
88
0
0
0

0
89
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

0
0
114
0
18

0
0
68
0
10

0
0
166
0
19

0
0
216
0
21

0
0
228
0
22

0
0
227
0
22

0
0
219
0
22

0
0
242
0
24

0
0
245
0
25

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products .........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s.......................................................

0
0
8
0
0

1
0
4
0
0

4
0
4
0
0

4
0
4
0
0

4
0
5
0
0

4
0
5
0
0

4
0
5
0
0

4
0
5
0
0

5
0
5
0
0

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
S ugar........................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

0
0
0
2
11

0
0
0
4
21

0
0
0
2
8

0
0
0
2
10

0
0
0
2
10

0
0
0
2
10

0
0
0
2
10

0
0
0
2
11

0
0
0
2
11

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c.................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

0
0
4
0
89

0
0
7
0
165

0
0
4
0
866

0
0
4
0
1520

0
0
4
0
1604

0
0
4
0
1600

0
0
4
0
1597

0
0
5
0
1767

0
0
5
0
1787

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

28
0
12
1
0

1
0
27
0
0

88
0
5
3
0

96
0
6
3
0

101
0
6
3
0

101
0
6
3
0

97
0
6
3
0

108
0
6
3
0

109
0
7
3
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

1732
2640
0
490
68

1962
2393
0
386
62

2377
4977
0
194
122

2423
6246
0
207
137

2557
6591
0
218
145

2551
6576
0
218
144

2474
6392
0
266
142

2738
7074
0
294
157

2769
7154
0
298
159

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

137
1
0
2
6

135
1
0
2
13

262
2
0
3
11

294
3
0
3
12

311
3
0
4
13

310
3
0
4
13

306
3
0
3
13

338
3
0
4
14

342
3
0
4
14

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

28
2
31
0
0

2
2
14
0
0

12
6
81
0
0

14
6
91
0
0

14
7
96
0
0

14
7
96
0
0

14
7
95
0
0

16
7
105
0
0

16
7
106
0
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s ..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s ..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

0
0
231
316
5
23
190
0
1
83

0
0
198
215
9
15
195
0
1
21

0
0
286
369
61
62
582
0
2
58

0
0
325
414
69
68
1444
0
2
65

0
0
343
437
73
72
1524
0
2
68

0
0
342
436
73
71
1520
0
2
68

0
0
370
430
72
70
1662
0
2
67

0
0
410
476
79
77
1839
0
2
74

0
0
414
481
80
78
1860
0
2
75

See footnotes at end of table.




75

Table A-6. Residential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

High I

Low

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

2314
400
108
411
623

1541
325
96
252
121

2840
568
160
398
353

3493
639
180
547
397

3686
674
190
577
419

3677
673
189
576
418

3613
663
187
564
412

3999
734
207
624
456

4044
742
209
631
461

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

108
565
35
0
0

66
498
3
0
0

107
581
5
0
0

120
653
6
0
0

127
689
6
0
0

127
687
6
0
0

125
678
6
0
0

138
750
6
0
0

140
759
6
0
0

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures...............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .............................

715
1693
2
0
319

610
1377
10
0
154

769
2290
15
0
422

815
2775
17
0
474

860
2928
18
0
500

858
2921
18
0
499

848
2672
17
0
492

939
2957
19
0
544

949
2990
20
0
551

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c......................................... .
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

332
0
0
15
49

304
0
0
0
62

184
0
0
64
58

207
0
0
72
65

218
0
0
76
69

218
0
0
76
68

215
0
0
75
67

238
0
0
83
75

240
0
0
84
75

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

1
0
107
3
0

1
0
119
15
0

8
0
204
6
0

9
0
229
7
119

10
0
241
7
126

10
0
241
7
126

9
0
237
7
215

10
0
263
8
238

11
0
266
8
241

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

0
106
54
3
614

0
217
103
6
611

0
701
316
1
956

0
788
431
1
1198

0
831
455
1
1264

0
829
454
1
1261

0
818
468
1
1631

0
905
518
2
1805

0
915
524
2
1825

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

482
22
0
4
0

397
32
0
11
0

442
39
0
55
0

497
53
0
61
0

525
55
0
65
0

524
55
0
65
0

516
59
0
64
0

571
65
0
71
0

578
66
0
71
0

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft.....................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

23
4
0
0
0

16
6
0
0
0

31
14
0
0
0

34
15
0
0
0

36
16
0
0
0

36
16
0
0
0

36
16
0
0
0

40
17
0
0
0

40
18
0
0
0

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

0
500
91
0
0

0
1030
120
0
0

0
2925
95
0
0

0
2160
194
0
0

0
2279
205
0
0

0
2274
204
0
0

0
2238
219
0
0

0
2476
242
0
0

0
2504
245
0
0

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

1
1
1
1
33
596
3
618
28
60

2
1
1
1
48
387
5
385
21
111

8
2
2
2
82
536
8
828
76
42

9
2
2
2
92
583
9
914
82
47

9
2
2
2
97
615
10
965
87
49

9
2
2
2
97
614
10
962
87
49

9
2
2
2
96
593
9
939
83
49

10
2
2
2
106
657
10
1039
92
54

10
2
2
2
107
664
11
1051
93
54

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

0
0
0
102
90

0
0
0
77
12

0
0
0
191
29

0
1
0
214
32

0
1
0
226
34

0
1
0
226
34

0
1
0
223
33

0
1
0
246
37

0
1
0
249
37

See footnotes at end of table.




76

Table A-6. Residential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

2
35
1635
168
3605

3
6
1287
196
2891

3
57
2718
296
3896

4
64
2911
333
3786

4
67
3072
351
3995

4
67
3065
350
3986

4
66
2935
345
3547

4
73
3248
382
3926

4
74
3285
386
3970

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking...................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance..........................:......................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

143
9
115
0
2734

76
6
106
0
2551

200
17
167
0
4396

225
19
188
0
4856

238
20
198
0
5124

237
20
198
0
5112

234
19
195
0
5413

259
21
216
0
5991

262
22
218
0
6058

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

5
1
0
248
57

8
1
0
392
36

10
6
0
560
30

12
7
0
747
34

12
7
0
788
36

12
7
0
786
36

12
7
0
775
35

13
8
0
858
39

13
8
0
867
39

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services......................................,......

1508
195
0
5
0

1436
122
1
9
0

2345
184
0
7
0

3087
206
0
8
0

3258
218
0
8
0

3250
217
0
8
0

3204
214
0
8
0

3545
237
0
9
0

3585
240
0
9
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ................................................ .........
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

0
0
1
41
16

0
0
1
30
10

0
0
2
33
21

0
0
2
37
24

0
0
2
39
25

0
0
2
39
25

0
0
2
39
24

0
0
2
43
27

0
0
2
43
27

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....... ...............
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
0
0
2
8

0
0
0
7
11

0
0
0
4
24

0
0
0
4
27

0
0
0
5
29

0
0
0
5
29

0
0
0
5
28

0
0
0
5
31

0
0
0
5
31

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

-211
15009
0
0
0
0

-891
13706
0
0
0
0

-1260
24250
0
0
0
0

-4414
26853
0
0
0
0

-1859
28335
0
0
0
0

-1855
28270
0
0
0
0

-8467
28966
0
0
0
0

-2059
32056
0
0
0
0

-2083
32418
0
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




77

Table A-7. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Actual

Projected

Sector

1985 alternatives
1967

1963

1990 alternatives

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

T ota l..........................................................................................

7762

12007

10350

15019

20060

19891

17757

26635

26485

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton........................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

2
662
-69
246
697

-6
195
122
925
60

-20
459
289
1318
447

-25
551
454
1810
641

-25
562
463
1845
654

-25
557
459
1830
648

-29
601
508
2011
704

-35
723
611
2419
847

-35
719
607
2405
843

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services..............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

86
0
-65
-5
-1

7
0
31
6
8

18
0
8
23
4

26
0
13
23
4

27
0
13
23
4

26
0
13
23
4

35
0
18
28
2

42
0
22
33
3

42
0
22
33
3

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

0
20
2
-1
0

214
296
14
6
0

81
75
23
-8
0

117
90
28
-12
0

119
92
29
-12
0

118
91
29
-12
0

130
98
31
-13
0

156
118
38
-16
0

155
118
37
-16
0

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s.......................................................

-4
-35
239
15
39

134
70
276
55
295

73
-9
289
69
134

42
-12
369
84
170

43
-12
376
86
174

43
-12
373
85
172

70
-13
408
90
188

84
-16
491
108
227

84
-16
488
108
225

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
S ugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

81
24
142
32
53

77
25
55
48
169

188
14
12
28
241

246
18
15
36
333

251
18
16
36
340

249
18
16
36
337

275
20
20
38
375

331
25
25
46
451

329
24
24
46
448

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c.................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

32
136
32
41
31

49
92
226
130
18

39
233
217
279
140

50
307
283
384
198

51
313
288
392
201

50
311
286
389
200

55
340
287
448
220

66
409
345
538
264

66
406
343
535
263

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

60
15
69
47
-8

101
40
280
54
2

54
89
653
166
9

189
131
937
241
12

193
134
955
246
12

191
133
947
244
12

229
154
1111
277
14

276
185
1337
333
17

274
184
1329
332
17

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

49
60
1
99
19

87
86
3
58
48

265
358
3
356
78

331
573
-6
524
115

338
584
-6
534
117

335
579
-6
530
116

389
635
-6
597
119

468
764
-7
719
143

465
760
-7
715
142

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

115
42
4
99
58

261
45
2
154
194

180
61
14
92
158

268
86
23
158
238

274
88
23
162
242

271
87
23
160
240

312
98
25
178
270

375
118
30
214
325

373
118
30
213
323

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals...........................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

48
26
27
13
12

185
87
43
42
-19

57
59
99
87
-14

88
84
148
134
-24

89
86
151
136
-24

89
85
149
135
-24

104
91
173
158
-30

126
110
208
191
-36

125
109
207
190
-36

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

D rugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products...............................
Tires and inner tu b es..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

106
78
51
215
56
15
52
-13
-69
101

123
110
64
581
47
40
75
-8
25
50

212
169
116
42
178
48
310
45
206
156

353
195
163
57
222
70
860
52
232
218

360
199
166
58
227
71
877
53
236
222

357
197
165
57
225
71
870
53
234
220

407
401
184
65
248
82
1043
63
278
257

490
482
221
78
299
98
1255
76
335
309

487
479
220
78
297
98
1248
75
333
307

See footnotes at end of table.




78

Table A-7. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

15
14
23
47
139

71
23
18
48
653

134
29
31
116
463

153
34
38
156
316

156
35
39
159
322

154
35
38
158
320

167
37
47
176
414

201
45
56
212
498

200
45
56
211
495

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ...........................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

10
76
77
18
41

17
120
156
111
78

26
194
-29
107
32

37
273
-49
161
40

37
279
-50
164
41

37
276
-49
163
41

41
317
-60
206
47

49
381
-72
247
56

49
379
-72
246
56

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw rrjachine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................

21
97
25
59
87

36
119
75
36
92

121
407
55
148
207

149
527
78
196
287

152
538
80
200
293

151
533
79
199
291

169
596
90
216
326

204
717
108
260
393

202
713
108
258
390

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

43
39
66
78
17

150
72
487
75
45

232
173
194
342
51

318
259
319
588
84

324
264
326
599
86

322
262
323
594
85

360
284
380
690
101

433
342
458
830
121

431
340
455
825
121

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

80
37
60
14
27

195
111
152
43
110

126
121
138
59
25

198
156
221
89
205

201
159
225
90
209

200
158
224
90
207

227
178
263
102
302

273
214
316
123
363

271
213
314
122
361

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

21
69
7
22
238

51
153
71
77
112

5
298
98
115
380

8
423
163
186
461

9
432
166
189
470

8
428
165
188
466

10
481
194
221
549

12
579
234
266
661

12
576
233
264
657

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

37
138
-16
27
-9

68
99
93
501
155

179
262
149
6
-1

247
521
241
10
176

252
531
246
10
180

250
526
244
10
178

276
576
280
12
238

332
692
336
14
286

330
689
334
14
285

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

41
818
488
-29
26,

43
-367
2314
229
-45

121
851
203
230
1

180
1125
349
371
284

183
1147
356
378
289

182
1137
353
375
287

215
1315
394
403
334

258
1582
473
485
401

257
1573
471
482
399

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c..............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

3
55
40
28
3

21
33
91
36
8

85
190
44
68
66

121
227
64
259
135

123
231
65
264
138

122
229
65
262
137

140
261
68
282
186

169
314
82
339
224

168
313
82
337
223

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation.....................................................................

13
8
9
21
35
81
0
128
10
1

78
4
38
79
58
135
0
123
20
3

2
31
188
169
159
248
0
238
31
9

4
49
258
253
229
351
0
330
51
14

4
50
263
258
234
358
0
336
52
15

4
49
261
256
232
355
0
334
51
14

5
58
282
305
259
396
0
370
58
17

6
69
340
367
312
476
0
445
69
20

6
69
338
365
310
474
0
442
69
20

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private........................................

3
0
0
0
0

10
0
0
0
0

3
0
0
0
0

5
0
0
0
0

5
0
0
0
0

5
0
0
0
0

6
0
0
0
0

7
0
0
0
0

7
0
0
0
0

See footnotes at end of table.




79

Table A-7. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

High I

Low

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale tra d e .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

0
0
428
0
0

0
0
588
0
0

0
0
999
0
2

0
0
1441
0
4

0
0
1470
0
4

0
0
1457
0
4

0
0
1615
0
4

0
0
1943
0
4

0
0
1932
0
4

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair...................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

0
0
9
0
0

0
0
-69
0
0

0
0
-164
0
0

0
0
8
0
0

0
0
8
0
0

0
0
8
0
0

0
0
31
0
0

0
0
37
0
0

0
0
37
0
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c.......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
0
0
0
29

0
0
0
0
-124

0
0
0
0
4

0
0
0
0
8

0
0
0
0
9

0
0
0
0
8

0
0
0
0
7

0
0
0
0
9

0
0
0
0
9

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

143
0
0
0
0
-251

-99
0
0
0
0
-2127

204
0
0
0
0
-7591

238
0
0
0
0
-11519

243
0
0
0
0
-7000

241
0
0
0
0
-6941

266
0
0
0
0
-12897

320
0
0
0
0
-10246

318
0
0
0
0
-10189

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




80

Table A-8. Net exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1990 alternatives

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

T otal..........................................................................................

7258

3542

-3406

36891

30656

23994

43138

28438

3363

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

12
-281
464
1973
553

15
-283
402
1836
604

15
-163
389
2415
1329

36
-184
447
5569
3827

38
-225
477
5953
4036

36
-231
455
5680
3819

42
-216
470
6566
4652

47
-305
529
7425
5138

42
-339
473
6665
4480

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining....................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper......................

-689
12
-473
6
-468

-797
11
-587
-16
-391

-1047
18
-517
-66
-316

-1160
40
-541
-97
-338

-1338
43
-630
-113
-388

-1335
41
-633
-113
-386

-1448
48
-567
-111
-368

-1860
53
-746
-145
-529

-1910
47
-779
-151
-540

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

565
-1628
-103
-35
2

506
-1483
-64
38
4

495
-2762
-89
-16
6

2684
-4975
-84
46
14

2872
-5665
-107
39
15

2742
-5613
-112
31
14

3420
-4777
-121
49
16

3872
-6020
-175
33
18

3482
-6067
-197
5
17

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

261
9
-530
188
-19

211
17
-818
7
-128

233
11
-928
0
-225

282
25
-789
137
-122

293
27
-988
127
-179

275
26
-1029
109
-199

339
30
-697
163
-184

365
34
-1074
141
-315

307
30
-1272
80
-398

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
S ugar........................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

448
-9
-1163
-63
-484

506
-27
-1072
-77
-732

545
-33
-991
-94
-881

937
-45
-856
-118
-1350

994
-52
-976
-140
-1542

944
-53
-968
-142
-1531

1201
-51
-942
-138
-1581

1343
-69
-1121
-187
-2004

1189
-73
-1132
-202
-2031

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c.................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

32
502
579
-146
-53

24
413
671
-348
-43

70
542
767
-464
-65

268
949
995
-512
-74

285
969
1058
-652
-90

271
898
1006
-685
-92

345
1246
1117
-624
-88

386
1311
1249
-936
-122

342
1072
1106
-1088
-134

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

-505
4
-430
3
86

-399
3
-863
9
240

-365
-153
-2225
-31
375

-367
-287
-4080
-17
955

-442
-332
-4683
-32
1019

-451
-331
-4661
-38
970

-543
-338
-4818
-85
1125

-738
-434
-6150
-135
1267

-795
-446
-6277
-162
1131

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture.................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

-611
-396
-4
-116
-25

-676
-484
0
-122
-104

-973
-624
-1
-183
-100

-1619
-607
1
-298
-135

-1876
-711
1
-344
-158

-1877
-716
1
-344
-159

-1757
-751
1
-401
-159

-2612
-990
0
-517
-209

-2700
-1040
-1
-532
-220

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

-823
15
3
157
13

-982
24
-1
137
14

-828
26
-8
107
35

-1430
42
-15
251
53

-1720
44
-17
251
51

-1757
42
-17
229
45

-1699
49
-18
263
61

-2328
54
-23
260
56

-2526
47
-24
194
37

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

556
105
238
367
87

654
132
139
425
31

556
149
231
454
-14

2050
639
535
1084
345

2082
658
554
1140
348

1922
613
519
1077
319

2468
890
639
1276
482

2565
957
684
1401
498

2059
805
573
1213
397

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s ..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

208
85
41
-229
55
25
59
-18
-184
-12

184
101
55
-548
-39
-60
60
-59
-430
-37

270
121
67
-2161
-337
-257
21
-86
-1028
-129

980
310
90
-874
-799
-438
374
-121
-1525
-233

1016
327
96
-1048
-921
-513
344
-146
-1741
-285

951
309
92
-1068
-919
-516
295
-149
-1727
-294

1237
367
102
-891
-925
-528
658
-144
-1599
-275

1331
404
115
-1219
-1196
-694
619
-200
-2021
-390

1122
352
103
-1322
-1236
-727
422
-219
-2044
-435

See footnotes at end of table.




81

Table A-8. Net exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products................................

-18
-13
-102
18
-460

-15
-3
-186
-15
-1610

-81
-34
-236
-30
-2813

-135
-50
-375
-37
-4252

-155
-61
-430
-61
-4898

-155
-63
-428
-71
-4884

-163
-64
-444
-39
-6371

-209
-155
-566
-90
-8140

-215
-165
-577
-130
-8313

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

45
-31
-81
-595
25

68
-718
-94
-1038
11

115
-166
-346
-1264
10

220
-185
-361
-2534
22

229
-245
-449
-2907
22

214
-261
-466
-2893
20

222
-236
-423
-3113
28

238
-373
-616
-3963
28

199
-448
-701
-4033
21

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures...............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .............................

44
271
-19
20
40

24
243
-41
212
7

-1
244
-92
413
-100

50
315
-164
1062
-8

46
328
-194
1129
-41

40
308
-196
1074
-58

59
352
-198
1280
-16

-49
380
-265
1436
-89

-72
321
-281
1276
-156

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

78
400
168
1374
121

80
374
99
1483
132

-166
461
14
1791
70

238
1145
566
4482
234

207
1192
343
4769
235

169
1118
298
4537
215

186
1287
734
5528
255

93
1378
186
6198
253

-43
1153
31
5506
189

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery .........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

516
646
464
59
212

165
468
460
83
417

285
264
343
72
977

869
120
500
152
6623

898
35
447
162
7018

839
-23
374
155
6659

1020
-32
447
184
9897

1085
-243
303
207
11049

901
-439
56
184
9764

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

21
252
169
190
61

42
385
136
230
-18

-51
451
94
193
-289

-36
760
154
360
-755

-62
797
120
362
-880

-74
751
87
331
-883

-157
761
102
425
-1013

-244
810
5
429
-1324

-291
674
-115
329
-1380

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

32
-147
17
267
128

83
-500
10
324
179

65
-1924
-16
316
436

6
-4668
65
686
3224

-18
-5356
51
686
3363

-32
-5330
38
626
3159

1
-6802
111
675
4198

-50
-8664
82
643
4489

-100
-8822
27
448
3751

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c..............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

34
1134
1100
21
179

60
-611
1743
-7
151

-19
-4336
2483
18
148

-44
-8321
7580
92
200

-97
-10029
8251
75
207

-123
-10248
7833
57
194

-176
-7074
9640
91
157

-325
-10202
11247
50
156

-428
-11527
9919
-12
116

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

-119
8
387
86
-34

-212
-23
466
92
-78

-1105
-67
454
143
-151

-1790
-46
1024
302
-297

-2040
-65
1076
311
-354

-2022
-72
1016
289
-360

-1981
-57
1159
318
-393

-2499
-100
1263
329
-534

-2521
-126
1083
263
-576

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

63
-114
-192
-149
-76
758
0
762
1887
-164

120
-206
-268
-271
-207
866
0
755
1821
-11

192
-275
-338
-448
-309
1085
1
887
1690
128

852
-267
-526
-1141
-376
1436
1
2020
3130
1667

847
-310
-623
-1330
-461
1530
1
2161
3332
1686

771
-311
-631
-1335
-475
1457
1
2063
3172
1551

1125
-353
-643
-1408
-543
1560
2
2815
3701
2591

1107
-461
-862
-1845
-754
1754
2
3188
4156
2728

817
-481
-918
-1929
-828
1563
2
2867
3700
2232

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

40
170
0
52
15

62
38
0
150
10

56
215
0
389
-29

181
292
0
1332
-40

193
312
0
1425
-52

185
298
0
1361
-56

240
380
0
1823
-60

272
431
0
2064
-90

245
387
0
1856
-105

See footnotes at end of table.




82

Table A-8. Met exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding public................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale tra d e .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...................

-119
4
3799
0
34

-114
6
5284
0
67

-237
11
6973
0
119

-589
20
14276
0
272

-679
21
15670
0
291

-678
20
15197
0
278

-750
23
17946
0
321

-962
27
21383
0
364

-986
24
20244
0
327

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

2
12
-26
0
588

7
11
-97
0
695

8
11
71
0
2035

31
26
160
0
3275

33
27
154
0
3504

31
26
136
0
3345

41
32
181
0
3777

46
36
166
0
4278

42
32
107
0
3847

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

0
0
0
44
19

3
0
0
121
31

4
0
0
399
31

7
0
0
1490
100

7
0
0
1594
106

7
0
0
1522
101

8
0
0
1892
122

9
0
0
2142
136

8
0
0
1926
120

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

298
0
493
0
0

447
0
390
0
0

400
0
426
0
0

984
0
933
0
0

1053
0
998
0
0

1005
0
952
0
0

1143
0
1064
0
0

1295
0
1203
0
0

1164
0
1079
0
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffic e ...............................................................................

0
0
0
26
44

0
0
0
25
25

0
0
0
23
21

0
0
0
36
18

0
0
0
35
19

0
0
0
32
18

0
0
0
36
20

0
0
0
35
23

0
0
0
25
21

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
95
0
0
-11111

0
109
0
0
-13680

0
118
0
0
-15162

0
263
0
0
-21407

0
281
0
0
-24475

0
268
0
0
-24307

0
310
0
0
-28891

0
351
0
0
-36342

0
316
0
0
-36904

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

-250
1
0
5067
0
0

-406
10
0
8885
0
0

-210
4
0
10646
0
0

-426
9
0
21981
0
0

-647
9
0
22818
0
0

-733
9
0
21367
0
0

-1769
11
0
23555
0
0

-2551
13
0
24768
0
0

-2883
11
0
20222
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




83

Table A-9. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

T ota l..........................................................................................

42217

54249

72793

164909

176427

168432

203280

230224

207028

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

15
49
495
2025
1050

16
59
438
1873
1291

47
94
403
2465
1896

39
215
464
5637
4675

42
230
497
6030
5001

40
220
474
5757
4775

46
254
491
6652
5674

52
287
556
7534
6426

47
258
500
6775
5779

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ..............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining....................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

89
16
141
25
7

92
19
131
33
12

105
19
102
17
15

240
44
216
32
46

257
47
231
34
50

245
44
221
32
47

283
51
220
41
57

321
58
249
46
64

289
52
224
42
58

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

569
1
50
62
2

510
1
100
124
4

496
1
90
79
6

2686
3
162
195
14

2874
4
173
209
15

2744
3
165
200
14

3422
5
172
226
16

3875
5
195
256
18

3485
5
175
230
17

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products ....................................................... ..................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen foods.......................................................

292
9
448
274
289

335
17
348
133
295

314
11
569
187
339

408
25
1301
428
574

437
27
1392
458
614

417
26
1329
437
586

488
30
1536
505
655

553
34
1739
572
742

497
30
1564
514
667

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products .................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

491
7
5
26
19

553
7
9
35
29

619
. 11
9
39
33

1053
26
21
89
79

1127
27
22
95
85

1076
26
21
91
81

1338
30
24
105
94

1516
34
28
119
106

1363
30
25
107
96

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yam, and thread mills.................................................
Floor covering m ills .................................................................

37
700
709
352
1

40
825
720
287
17

85
971
839
432
33

295
1614
1100
1003
78

316
1727
1177
1073
84

302
1648
1124
1024
80

378
2029
1242
1175
92

429
2297
1407
1331
104

385
2066
1265
1197
93

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods................................................. .........
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

33
18
172
42
141

82
28
166
82
302

123
26
235
103
407

346
61
537
183
1005

370
65
575
195
1075

353
62
549
186
1027

416
70
634
213
1184

471
79
718
241
1341

424
71
646
217
1206

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

170
45
3
14
27

215
60
4
28
23

336
106
3
33
28

468
288
6
76
64

501
308
6
81
69

478
294
6
77
65

557
345
7
89
76

631
390
8
101
86

567
351
7
91
77

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

579
29
5
244
26

721
28
4
247
47

957
33
4
276
91

1344
52
4
501
140

1438
55
4
536
150

1373
53
4
511
143

1465
60
4
557
164

1660
67
5
631
185

1492
61
4
567
167

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

858
144
323
386
144

1233
201
276
473
128

1569
329
400
576
188

3664
1007
794
1369
659

3920
1078
849
1465
705

3742
1029
811
1398
673

4279
1292
949
1620
856

4846
1464
1075
1835
969

4358
1316
967
1650
872

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and.allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b es..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

276
104
42
826
91
142
107
69
26
143

319
132
56
761
75
121
160
60
24
186

539
167
69
712
91
153
341
71
36
206

1448
382
93
771
158
199
1186
123
56
289

1549
409
99
825
169
213
1269
132
59
309

1479
390
95
788
162
203
1211
126
57
295

1783
451
105
759
246
228
1646
143
54
339

2019
510
119
860
278
258
1864
162
62
384

1816
459
107
773
250
232
1676
145
55
346

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

See footnotes at end of table.




84

Table A-9. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
Sector

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

6
30
27
115
652

14
35
28
146
555

13
40
36
167
625

30
66
46
269
809

32
70
50
288
866

30
67
47
275
826

35
71
51
322
887

40
80
58
364
1004

36
72
52
328
903

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ...........................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

68
412
158
180
37

115
290
246
309
20

175
306
241
268
26

313
492
551
313
47

335
527
590
335
51

320
503
563
320
48

332
590
650
323
57

376
668
737
366
65

338
601
662
329
58

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................

51
295
43
75
164

58
291
73
275
167

68
324
81
474
201

156
439
105
1157
460

166
470
113
1237
492

159
448
108
1181
469

184
500
119
1393
542

208
567
134
1577
614

187
510
121
1418
552

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery ......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

205
439
409
1409
136

368
490
500
1610
164

411
710
470
1968
198

940
1624
1075
4862
453

1005
1737
1150
5201
484

960
1658
1098
4966
462

1109
1916
1368
6021
534

1256
2170
1437
6819
605

1130
1951
1292
6132
544

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

608
831
529
60
284

572
974
764
85
600

582
1139
876
79
1525

1331
1480
1774
162
7605

1424
1583
1898
174
8137

1359
1511
1812
166
7768

1571
1587
2034
197
11151

1779
1797
2304
223
12629

1600
1616
2072
200
11357

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.................................. ..........
Electrical industrial apparatus.................................................
Household appliances.....'................................................ .......

76
255
197
241
150

134
403
288
340
164

135
528
410
418
216

309
1002
812
709
293

330
1072
868
758
313

315
1024
829
724
299

364
1163
973
840
374

413
1317
1102
952
423

371
1184
991
856
381

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

111
78
42
326
188

202
93
57
522
356

237
208
81
604
1008

357
585
324
1381
4477

382
626
346
1478
4790

365
598
331
1411
4573

400
739
452
1630
6284

453
837
511
1846
7117

408
753
460
1660
6400

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

110
1865
1229
35
181

200
2352
2128
66
160

301
4123
3045
189
174

688
8043
8843
432
294

736
8605
9461
462
315

703
8215
9032
441
301

815
10125
11514
510
329

923
11467
13041
578
372

830
10312
11727
520
335

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c......................................... :....
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

2
13
424
99
24

5
26
543
120
40

7
79
573
209
74

20
181
1310
478
231

21
193
1402
511
247

20
185
1338
488
236

24
213
1546
564
304

27
242
1751
639
344

24
217
1575
574
309

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g oods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation.....................................................................

164
6
118
69
67
802
0
762
1972
313

284
13
144
91
159
896
0
755
1932
790

575
14
226
257
204
1142
1
887
1838
1075

1789
86
350
453
467
1525
1
2020
3360
3085

1914
92
375
485
499
1631
1
2161
3594
3300

1827
87
358
463
476
1557
1
2063
3431
3151

2432
128
402
561
551
1665
2
2815
3975
4207

2754
145
455
635
624
1885
2
3188
4502
4765

2477
130
410
571
561
1695
2
2867
4048
4285

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private........................................

40
170
0
52
24

62
38
0
150
29

56
215
0
389
38

181
292
0
1332
99

193
312
0
1425
106

185
298
0
1361
101

240
380
0
1823
117

272
431
0
2064
132

245
387
0
1856
119

See footnotes at end of table.




85

Table A-9. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale tra d e .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

12
4
2280
0
34

53
6
2948
0
67

110
11
3980
0
119

131
20
8515
0
272

140
21
9109
0
291

134
20
8696
0
278

135
23
10521
0
321

153
27
12029
0
364

137
24
10817
0
327

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

2
12
47
0
588

7
11
25
0
695

8
11
236
0
2035

31
26
416
0
3275

33
27
446
0
3504

31
26
425
0
3345

41
32
485
0
3777

46
36
549
0
4278

42
32
493
0
3847

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

0
0
0
44
25

3
0
0
122
39

4
0
0
401
40

7
0
0
1493
116

7
0
0
1598
124

7
0
0
1525
119

8
0
0
1896
141

9
0
0
2147
160

8
0
0
1931
144

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair...................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

298
0
494
0
0

447
0
391
0
0

400
0
438
0
0

984
0
948
0
0

1053
0
1014
0
0

1005
0
968
0
0

1143
0
1082
0
0

1295
0
1226
0
0

1164
0
1102
0
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffic e ...............................................................................

0
0
0
38
44

0
0
0
45
25

0
0
0
53
21

0
0
0
73
18

0
0
0
78
19

0
0
0
75
18

0
0
0
82
20

0
0
0
93
23

0
0
0
83
21

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c.......................................................■
.
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c.......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
95
0
0
388

0
109
0
0
486

0
118
0
0
681

0
263
0
0
1441

0
281
0
0
1542

0
268
0
0
1472

0
310
0
0
2260

0
351
0
0
2559

0
316
0
0
2301

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

356
1
0
6547
0
0

722
10
0
11154
0
0

919
4
0
14167
0
0

2359
9
0
32118
0
0

2524
9
0
34361
0
0

2410
9
0
32804
0
0

2531
11
0
38543
0
0

2866
13
0
43652
0
0

2577
11
0
39254
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




86

Table A-10. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

-76199 -128018 -145771 -144438 -160142 -201786 -203365

T ota l..........................................................................................

-34959

-50707

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

-3
-330
-31
-52
-497

-1
-342
-36
-37
-687

-2
-257
-14
-50
-567

-3
-399
. -17
-68
-847

-4
-455
-19
-77
-965

-4
-451
-19
-76
-956

-4
-470
-21
-86
-1022

-5
-592
-27
-108
-1288

-5
-597
-27
-109
-1298

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................
9. Copper ore mining....................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper......................

-778
-4
-614
-19
-475

-889
-7
-719
-48
-403

-1152
-2
-619
-83
-331

-1400
-3
-757
-129
-384

-1595
-4
-862
-147
-438

-1580
-4
-854
-146
-434

-1731
-4
-787
-152
-425

-2181
-5
-995
-191
-593

-2198
-5
-1003
-193
-598

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

-4
-1629
-153
-97
0

-4
-1484
-164
-85
0

-1
-2763
-179
-96
0

-2
-4978
-246
-150
0

-2
-5669
-280
-170
0

-2
-5617
-277
-169
0

-2
-4782
-293
-177
0

-3
-6025
-369
-223
0

-3
-6072
-372
-225
0

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s.......................................................

-31
0
-978
-85
-308

-124
0
-1167
-126
-423

-81
0
-1496
-187
-564

-126
0
-2090
-291
-696

-143
0
-2380
-331
-793

-142
0
-2358
-328
-786

-150
0
-2233
-342
-839

-189
0
-2813
-431
-1056

-190
0
-2835
-434
-1065

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
S ugar........................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

-42
-16
-1169
-89
-503

-47
-33
-1081
-113
-761

-75
-44
-1000
-133
-913

-117
-70
-876
-207
-1429

-133
-80
-998
-235
-1627

-132
-79
-989
-233
-1612

-137
-81
-966
-243
-1675

-173
-102
-1148
-307
-2110

-174
-103
-1157
-309
-2127

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c.................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills..................................................
Floor covering m ills .................................................................

-5
-198
-130
-498
-54

-16
-412
-50
-635
-60

-15
-428
-71
-895
-98

-27
-665
-105
-1515
-152

-31
-758
-119
-1725
-174

-30
-751
-118
-1709
-172

-34
-783
-125
-1799
-179

-43
-986
-158
-2266
-226

-43
-994
-159
-2284
-228

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

-538
-14
-601
-39
-55

-481
-24
-1029
-73
-63

-488
-178
-2460
-134
-32

-713
-349
-4618
-199
-50

-811
-397
-5258
-227
-57

-804
-393
-5210
-225
-56

-959
-408
-5452
-298
-59

-1209
-514
-6869
-376
-74

-1218
-518
-6923
-379
-75

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

-781
-441
-7
-130
-52

-891
-544
-4
-150
-127

-1310
-730
-4
-216
-128

-2087
-896
-5
-373
-199

-2377
-1020
-5
-425
-227

-2355
-1010
-5
-421
-224

-2314
-1095
-6
-491
-234

-3242
-1380
-7
-618
-295

-3267
-1391
-7
-623
-297

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

-1402
-15
-2
-87
-13

-1703
-3
-5
-111
-33

-1785
-6
-12
-169
-56

-2774
-9
-19
-250
-87

-3158
-11
-21
-285
-99

-3130
-11
-21
-282
-98

-3165
-11
-22
-295
-102

-3987
-14
-28
-371
-129

-4018
-14
-28
-374
-130

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

-302
-39
-85
-19
-57

-579
-69
-137
-48
-97

-1013
-181
-170
-122
-202

-1613
-369
-259
-285
-314

-1837
-420
-295
-325
-357

-1820
-416
-292
-322
-354

-1811
-403
-310
-344
-374

-2281
-507
-391
-434
-471

-2299
-511
-394
-437
-475

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s ..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b es..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

-69
-19
-1
-1056
-36
-116
-48
-87
-210
-155

-136
-31
-1
-1309
-114
-181
-100
-119
-454
-223

-269
-46
-2
-2873
-428
-410
-321
-157
-1064
-336

-468
-72
-3
-1645
-957
-637
-812
-244
-1581
-522

-533
-81
-3
-1873
-1090
-726
-925
-278
-1800
-595

-528
-81
-3
-1856
-1080
-719
-916
-275
-1784
-589

-546
-84
-3
-1650
-1170
-755
-988
-287
-1653
-615

-688
-106
-4
-2078
-1474
-952
-1245
-362
-2083
-774

-693
-107
-4
-2095
-1486
-959
-1255
-365
-2099
-780

See footnotes at end of table.




87

Table A-10. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

-24
-43
-128
-97
-1112

-29
-39
-214
-161
-2165

-94
-74
-271
-197
-3437

-164
-115
-421
-306
-5062

-187
-131
-480
-349
-5764

-185
-130
-475
-345
-5711

-198
-135
-496
-360
-7258

-249
-235
-624
-454
-9144

-251
-237
-629
-458
-9216

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

-23
-443
-239
-775
-12

-48
-1008
-340
-1347
-9

-60
-472
-587
-1533
-16

-93
-677
-912
-2847
-25

-106
-771
-1039
-3242
-28

-105
-764
-1029
-3212
-28

-110
-826
-1074
-3436
-29

-138
-1041
-1353
-4329
-37

-139
-1049
-1363
-4363
-37

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .............................

-7
-24
-62
-55
-124

-34
-48
-114
-63
-160

-68
-80
-173
-61
-301

-106
-124
-269
-95
-468

-120
-142
-306
-108
-533

-119
-140
-303
-107
-528

-124
-148
-317
-112
-558

-257
-187
-399
-142
-703

-259
-188
-402
-143
-708

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

-128
-39
-241
-35
-15

-288
-116
-401
-127
-32

-577
-248
-456
-177
-128

-701
-479
-509
-379
-219

-799
-545
-807
-432
-249

-791
-541
-800
-428
-247

-924
-629
-634
-494
-280

-1164
-792
-1251
-622
-352

-1173
-798
-1261
-627
-355

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

-91
-184
-65
-1
-72

-407
-507
-304
-3
-183

-297
-875
-534
-7
-548

-462
-1360
-1275
-10
-982

-526
-1548
-1452
-11
-1119

-521
-1534
-1438
-11
-1108

-551
-1619
-1588
-12
-1254

-694
-2039
-2001
-16
-1581

-699
-2055
-2016
-16
-1593

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines...................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

-55
-3
-28
-51
-89

-93
-18
-151
-110
-182

-186
-77
-316
-224
-505

-345
-242
-657
-348
-1048

-392
-276
-748
-396
-1193

-389
-273
-742
-393
-1182

-522
-402
-871
-415
-1387

-657
-507
-1097
-523
-1747

-662
-510
-1106
-527
-1761

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

-79
-225
-25
-59
-61

-120
-594
-47
-197
-178

-172
-2132
-97
-288
-572

-352
-5253
-259
-695
-1253

-401
-5982
-295
-792
-1427

-397
-5927
-292
-784
-1414

-400
-7541
-341
-955
-2086

-503
-9501
-429
-1203
-2628

-507
-9575
-433
-1212
-2649

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft....................................... ..............................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

-75
-731
-129
-14
-2

-140
-2963
-384
-73
-9

-321
-8459
-562
-171
-26

-732
-16364
-1263
-341
-95

-834
-18634
-1210
-388
-108

-826
-18463
-1199
-384
-107

-991
-17199
-1874
-419
-172

-1248
-21670
-1794
-528
-217

-1258
-21839
-1808
-532
-218

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

-121
-6
-37
-13
-58

-217
-49
-77
-28
-118

-1112
-146
-119
-66
-225

-1810
-227
-286
-176
-528

-2061
-258
-326
-201
-601

-2042
-256
-323
-199
-596

-2005
-271
-387
-246
-697

-2526
-341
-488
-310
-878

-2545
-344
-492
-312
-885

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

-101
-120
-310
-218
-143
-44
0
0
-85
-477

-164
-219
-412
-363
-366
-29
0
0
-110
-801

-383
-289
-564
-705
-513
-57
0
0
-148
-947

-937
-353
-876
-1593
-843
-89
0
0
-230
-1418

-1067
-402
-998
-1814
-960
-101
0
0
-262
-1615

-1057
-398
-989
-1798
-951
-100
0
0
-260
-1600

-1307
-481
-1045
-1969
-1093
-104
0
0
-274
-1617

-1647
-606
-1317
-2480
-1378
-132
0
0
-346
-2037

-1660
-611
-1328
-2500
-1388
-133
0
0
-348
-2053

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation.................................................... .......
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadpasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

0
0
0
0
-9

0
0
0
0
-19

0
0
0
0
-67

0
0
0
0
-139

0
0
0
0
-158

0
0
0
0
-157

0
0
0
0
-176

0
0
0
0
-222

0
0
0
0
-224

See footnotes at end of table.




88

Table A-10. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
Sector

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p ublic.................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

-131
0
1520
0
0

-168
0
2336
0
0

-347
0
2993
0
0

-719
0
5762
0
0

-819
0
6561
0
0

-812
0
6501
0
0

-884
0
7425
0
0

-1114
0
9354
0
0

-1123
0
9427
0
0

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

0
0
-73
0
0

0
0
-122
0
0

0
0
-165
0
0

0
0
-256
0
0

0
0
-292
0
0

0
0
-289
0
0

0
0
-304
0
0

0
0
-383
0
0

0
0
-386
0
0

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

0
0
0
-1
-6

0
0
0
-1
-8

0
0
0
-2
-10

0
0
0
-3
-16

0
0
0
-3
-18

0
0
0
-3
-18

0
0
0
-3
-19

0
0
0
-4
-24

0
0
0
-4
-24

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

0
0
-1
0
0

0
0
-1
0
0

0
0
-12
0
0

0
0
-15
0
0

0
0
-17
0
0

0
0
-17
0
0

0
0
-18
0
0

0
0
-23
0
0

0
0
-23
0
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

0
0
0
-13
0

0
0
0
-20
0

0
0
0
-30
0

0
0
0
-38
0

0
0
0
-43
0

0
0
0
-43
0

0
0
0
-46
0

0
0
0
-58
0

0
0
0
-58
0

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
0
0
0
-11499

0
0
0
0
-14166

0
0
0
0
-15843

0
0
0
0
-22848

0
0
0
0
-26016

0
0
0
0
-25778

0
0
0
0
-31151

0
0
0
0
-38901

0
0
0
0
-39205

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

-606
0
0
-1480
0
0

-1128
0
0
-2268
0
0

-1130
0
0
-3521
0
0

-2785
0
0
-10137
0
0

-3172
0
0
-11543
0
0

-3143
0
0
-11437
0
0

-4300
0
0
-14989
0
0

-5418
0
0
-18884
0
0

-5460
0
0
-19032
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




89

TabUe A -1 1. G o v e rn m e n t p u rch a s es , s e le c te d h is to ric a l and p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Actual

Projected

Sector

1985 alternatives
1963

1967

1990 alternatives

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

T otal..........................................................................................

197379

247969

252817

318653

318297

316617

338332

339410

340667

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

44
5
492
-541
-31

55
7
-874
-535
437

72
4
22
-799
13

62
9
337
-415
402

63
9
328
-404
405

63
9
313
-384
398

68
9
343
-585
470

71
9
334
-569
483

71
9
318
-541
474

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

-749
49
7
0
385

-809
76
-70
0
156

-525
79
-25
0
-7

-483
64
-15
0
0

-470
63
-15
0
0

-448
63
-15
0
0

-561
67
-23
0
0

-546
68
-22
0
0

-519
68
-23
0
0

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

85
0
462
36
7218

99
0
589
41
7878

70
0
586
47
9422

87
97
572
38
10096

85
94
575
38
10164

85
90
574
38
10109

89
165
573
31
10971

86
161
604
34
11393

88
153
605
34
11439

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

1349
4437
356
354
242

4547
5130
478
911
297

2108
3652
853
652
415

1804
4725
837
589
406

1761
4595
857
606
426

1769
4545
855
601
426

1990
4788
939
661
452

1873
4537
993
704
492

1976
4656
992
698
491

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products .................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

55
110
8
53
-5

123
13.1
10
57
3

104
160
19
70
-7

133
153
13
61
-9

133
164
14
67
-9

131
163
14
67
-9

157
182
15
68
-7

160
202
16
76
-8

158
202
16
76
-8

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing .................................. .......................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

44
134
1
75
41

52
147
2
125
61

56
222
1
83
82

53
221
-1
158
65

59
237
-2
160
64

59
235
-2
160
64

66
240
-1
173
74

74
267
-2
179
74

73
267
-2
182
75

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................
Logging....................................................................................

22
0
166
99
0

18
0
227
392
0

14
0
215
195
1

19
0
374
213
0

20
0
462
211
0

20
0
460
211
0

26
0
407
249
0

27
0
506
244
0

27
0
511
252
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers.................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household ..............................

290
396
6
65
363

270
700
33
148
594

112
423
13
108
622

98
381
16
151
828

98
382
16
149
826

98
381
16
146
821

101
378
19
168
920

104
390
18
167
947

105
391
18
165
945

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

362
35
4
673
546

556
70
8
973
782

679
58
3
1033
1189

813
60
5
1137
1376

822
63
5
1112
1374 „
i>

815
63
5
1111
1365

825
62
5
1309
1461

856
66
5
1319
1505

853
66
5
1321
1504

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

1169
91
279
19
17

1049
114
950
-9
31

937
107
429
21
15

1395
147
684
25
55

1364
148
669
24
53

1355
147
669
24
54

1769
146
714
23
62

1706
152
680
21
58

1748
151
708
23
61

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs.......................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tubes ..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b es..............................
Plastic products................................... .rz................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

379
158
143
1916
156
108
168
1
10
82

654
281
150
2578
239
337
257
4
25
157

1040
223
171
2599
130
267
244
1
18
184

2281
309
190
2588
199
333
343
2
19
205

2291
309
188
3197
210
353
347
2
21
208

2287
307
187
3193
208
352
345
2
21
207

2679
345
205
2677
212
353
373
3
22
226

2803
352
207
3408
228
375
383
3
24
235

2807
352
208
3475
228
383
387
3
25
236

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

See footnotes at end of table.




90

T a b le A -1 1 . G o v e rn m e n t p u rc h a s e s , s e le c te d h is to ric a l an d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to 199 0 — G o n tin u e d

(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

1761
172
46
332
1064

2132
166
55
393
840

2245
134
48
333
447

1908
132
57
333
437

1923
132
59
336
439

1918
131
58
335
438

1839
137
63
355
433

1933
141
65
363
440

1934
142
65
367
449

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ...........................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

155
590
30
-234
14

202
705
50
-196
23

520
402
26
-38
18

498
418
39
-22
16

499
414
38
-21
16

499
409
38
-22
16

477
439
45
-35
17

494
439
42
-31
17

500
440
44
-37
17

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................

180
2413
51
41
117.

191
3199
191
44
255

154
2797
84
36
250

134
3393
139
43
303

136
3392
135
15
303

136
3379
133
14
302

150
3565
170
54
363

154
3670
163
24
363

155
3685
165
24
369

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

367
314
46
461
145

661
621
75
635
205

638
413
58
292
156

689
553
88
431
180

672
541
93
428
179

669
535
93
427
178

687
615
98
463
196

676
596
104
463
194

688
607
105
473
197

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery .........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

163
37
434
177
497

242
78
454
290
486

160
81
304
237
598

251
137
411
257
1748

245
133
407
262
1702

242
132
404
262
1679

287
159
471
291
2498

278
152
458
302
2390

282
156
469
306
2441

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

199
273
459
311
47

360
425
602
546
75

379
493
550
313
73

531
656
931
477
103

522
659
916
467
106

509
659
916
465
106

625
759
1180
653
116

620
778
1141
629
122

608
786
1183
649
123

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

486
98
173
5839
388

556
154
250
6759
696

493
124
205
5414
646

467
206
306
7877
1167

470
201
297
7674
1143

467
198
297
7671
1139

503
260
341
8847
1319

515
253
322
8359
1255

517
253
334
8729
1304

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair ..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

209
2162
11481
1485
65

331
2581
10475
1870
80

173
1788
8050
1622
107

393
3241
13881
2203
86

391
3296
12911
2146
86

390
3293
12946
2140
86

478
3775
15507
2679
93

470
3835
13908
2529
98

483
3925
14634
2632
98

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c..............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

6
10
665
144
40

9
13
744
275
79

19
21
687
232
124

7
24
1366
491
205

13
25
1344
491
200

13
25
1342
487
194

6
26
1568
565
283

12
28
1519
575
275

12
28
1570
577
270

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g oods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

312
9
5
77
209
638
435
1798
391
690

565
117
12
96
327
897
657
2813
881
1541

610
37
-3
180
453
631
726
2325
610
1140

852
62
9
169
513
711
650
2465
920
1693

849
60
10
169
485
704
642
2452
900
1670

845
60
11
169
480
702
642
2445
904
1666

929
79
18
180
562
730
684
2671
1054
1875

929
74
19
187
540
724
694
2655
1001
1825

944
78
20
188
540
739
696
2713
1053
1881

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private........................................

25
1
0
859
1284

37
0
0
1283
1879

36
0
0
2082
2322

46
0
0
3392
2345

47
0
0
3410
2362

47
0
0
3399
2364

49
0
0
3888
2453

49
0
0
3931
2518

50
0
0
4004
2552

See footnotes at end of table.




91

Talbte A -11. G overnm ent purchases, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to IS iO ^-C o ntin yed
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1990 alternatives

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding pu b lic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale tra d e .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

353
18
3459
-1155
546

367
85
4441
-1224
726

687
104
3968
-1323
618

725
148
4677
-1328
553

726
151
4726
-1254
565

725
151
4710
-1256
562

768
162
5118
-1597
555

787
158
5228
-1593
600

790
163
5293
-1568
593

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking................................................ ...................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

1780
152
445
0
937

1787
178
487
0
1274

2514
159
514
0
2079

3575
141
608
0
2610

3584
171
613
0
2630

3550
171
613
0
2613

3584
127
642
0
2709

3758
173
670
0
2830

3720
173
672
0
2821

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

723
327
0
4005
288

843
340
0
4727
323

701
618
0
5139
492

1161
639
0
8732
524

1178
634
0
8695
524

1173
633
0
8660
525

1133
697
0
9983
543

1153
716
0
9983
569

1179
718
0
10160
571

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

2924
285
108
-435
368

2785
454
163
-391
691

4149
601
128
-429
1630

5023
603
202
-361
2567

5056
627
200
-351
2580

5038
625
200
-349
2576

5414
628
229
-368
2690

5588
670
222
-378
2818

5610
674
230
-368
2823

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

701
546
1872
7
409

1428
1206
2347
11
718

2645
3344
1662
10
983

4500
4616
2031
22
1198

4521
4652
2043
22
1201

4517
4646
1985
22
1190

4878
5149
2189
24
1268

5108
5446
2183
25
1295

5123
5441
2158
25
1299

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
4
0
62
2593

0
13
0
52
4029

0
3
0
59
3508

0
6
0
64
4045

0
6
0
67
3934

0
6
0
67
3926

0
8
0
63
3404

0
8
0
68
3211

0
8
0
68
3340

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

1065
12850
100232
-1172
0
0

1022
16933
121953
-501
0
0

1400
13577
131948
-203
0
0

1303
14356
161167
-785
0
0

1284
14518
161167
-764
0
0

1295
14449
159998
-728
0
0

1637
14531
167585
-1167
0
0

1595
15255
167585
-1137
0
0

1687
15275
165869
-1083
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




92

Table A -12. Federal Government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
Sector

1985 alternatives
1963

1967

1990 alternatives

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

T otal..........................................................................................

101953

124885

102125

128416

126218

124537

139910

134910

136166

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

3
4
492
-551
-146

4
4
-874
-549
312

2
2
22
-820
-179

3
3
337
-427
151

3
3
328
-415
147

3
3
313
-396
140

2
3
343
-596
207

2
3
334
-581
201

2
3
318
-554
192

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services..............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

-752
27
7
0
385

-813
21
-70
0
156

-533
16
-25
0
-7

-491
19
-15
0
0

-478
19
-15
0
0

-456
19
-15
0
0

-570
19
-23
0
0

-556
18
-22
0
0

-529
19
-23
0
0

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

68
0
131
0
2235

71
0
125
0
2396

47
0
61
-2
2079

61
97
70
-1
3043

59
94
68
-1
2960

59
90
66
-1
2905

61
165
71
-4
3533

58
161
68
-4
3364

60
153
68
-4
3409

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products.........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s.......................................................

1340
4437
17
105
9

4537
5130
65
629
23

2090
3652
28
192
11

1796
4725
47
120
18

1745
4595
46
117
17

1753
4545
44
111
16

1983
4788
57
143
21

1859
4537
55
139
21

1962
4656
53
133
20

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

17
5
1
0
1

79
9
1
1
1

39
4
1
1
1

72
7
1
1
1

70
7
1
1
1

68
7
1
1
1

91
8
1
1
1

88
8
1
1
1

86
8
1
1
1

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

3
39
0
41
5

5
32
0
82
11

2
32
0
25
13

4
38
0
46
21

4
38
0
44
21

4
36
0
44
21

6
30
0
57
26

6
29
0
53
25

6
29
0
56
26

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

10
0
101
83
0

15
0
162
369
0

8
0
131
145
0

14
0
201
147
0

14
0
196
142
0

13
0
193
142
0

21
0
231
178
0

20
0
220
168
0

20
0
225
175
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture.................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household...............................

53
49
6
28
75

28
93
33
90
144

17
84
13
65
131

19
102
16
95
173

18
100
16
93
169

18
98
16
90
164

24
107
19
108
182

22
102
18
104
175

23
103
18
102
173

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

127
14
0
107
243

217
42
2
62
377

142
19
1
38
349

203
22
2
78
390

197
22
2
76
380

191
21
2
75
371

227
21
2
99
410

218
20
2
94
393

215
20
2
96
393

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

1080
19
203
18
17

948
31
858
-10
31

701
16
332
20
15

1110
29
626
24
55

1079
28
608
24
53

1070
27
608
24
54

1449
37
655
22
62

1371
36
616
21
58

1413
35
644
22
61

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs...................................................................................:....
Cleaning and toilet preparations........................................•
....
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tubes..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

91
44
52
1056
71
17
37
0
6
21

141
91
-24
1420
126
228
87
4
21
31

154
49
21
905
70
144
71
1
8
36

262
97
52
988
99
204
132
2
12
48

254
94
51
1544
96
198
128
2
12
46

250
92
50
1541
94
197
127
2
12
45

320
122
68
997
107
217
150
3
16
55

305
116
64
1587
103
205
143
3
15
52

308
117
65
1654
103
212
1-46
3
15
53

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

See footnotes at end of table.




93

Talbl® A -12. P©til®r@ll G overnm ent purefoases, total!, selected historical and pro je cte d years, 1963 to 19©0=C®initoiniyed
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1990 alternatives

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

335
5
2
75
618

276
6
4
76
464

202
13
11
56
139

235
25
16
102
186

229
25
16
99
181

224
24
16
98
181

264
33
20
129
195

252
31
19
122
184

253
32
19
126
192

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

11
152
23
-234
9

89
118
47
-196
16

91
166
24
- -39
8

118
227
38
-22
10

114
220
37
-21
10

115
215
37
-22
10

118
250
43
-35
10

110
239
40
-31
10

116
240
43
-37
10

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware.............................

10
341
39
20
27

12
514
181
25
103

25
604
72
9
74

40
849
129
16
147

39
825
126
16
143

39
812
123
16
142

55
955
159
20
203

52
908
152
20
192

53
923
153
20
198

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.......................... ...................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

94
262
15
267
101

278
547
36
445
134

230
327
14
140
85

367
458
26
217
123

357
445
26
211
120

354
439
25
210
119

386
516
39
250
141

365
490
37
235
134

377
501
38
245
137

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

134
29
349
78
453

203
62
390
143
412

119
65
222
59
509

205
120
357
90
1417

199
117
347
87
1378

196
116
344
87
1356

238
141
419
102
2147

227
133
397
96
2036

230
138
408
100
2087

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines...................................................
Electric transmission equipment............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

104
53
286
255
18

203
118
437
488
18

190
82
313
237
14

324
151
677
374
24

315
146
658
364
24

302
146
657
361
24

400
190
919
544
31

387
179
863
513
29

375
187
905
533
30

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

67
71
173
5724
374

83
106
250
6612
673

100
71
204
5260
625

141
145
305
7643
1145

137
141
297
7430
1113

134
138
296
7426
1109

168
191
340
8542
1298

160
182
321
8035
1224

162
183
334
8405
1272

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft.....................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

169
1281
11479
1479
8

282
1523
10473
1863
8

125
644
8046
1604
3

264
1712
13879
2194
9

256
1664
12907
2133
9

255
1660
12942
2127
9

347
2181
15506
2671
13

327
2053
13905
2517
13

341
2143
14631
2620
13

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

1
4
519
75
28

1
4
561
164
56

1
3
499
105
101

1
10
1065
191
177

1
10
1036
186
172

1
10
1034
182
166

1
14
1237
242
252

1
14
1164
230
244

1
14
1215
233
238

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g oods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

185
3
-3
5
86
309
36
922
334
507

363
112
-2
11
173
545
43
1771
821
1231

280
29
-22
5
103
323
39
1147
513
827

441
55
-4
11
189
435
52
1389
816
1246

429
53
-4
11
184
423
50
1351
793
1211

426
53
-4
11
180
421
50
1344
, 797
1207

518
71
3
16
239
456
55
1621
950
1418

490
67
2
16
229
431
52
1529
890
1336

505
70
3
16
229
445
54
1587
941
1391

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation...............................................;............
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private........................................

15
0
0
409
216

23
0
0
647
294

16
0
0
858
508

26
0
0
1666
622

25
0
0
1620
605

25
0
0
1609
607

29
0
0
2106
695

28
0
0
1988
652

29
0
0
2061
686

See footnotes at end of table.




94

Table A-12. Federal Government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale tra d e .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

65
49
1819
290
-8

53
53
2272
310
-56

80
56
1367
368
11

93
94
1957
575
5

91
91
1903
559
5

90
91
1887
557
3

109
111
2242
685
-2

103
104
2121
646
1

105
109
2186
671
-6

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking...................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

733
-10
93
0
356

680
6
67
0
528

756
-20
-3
0
445

734
-17
44
0
597

715
-16
42
0
581

681
-16
42
0
564

832
-12
79
0
649

811
-11
75
0
625

773
-11
77
0
616

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

616
36
0
2570
12

887
-10
0
2919
8

609
92
0
3015
18

810
87
0
4727
30

788
85
0
4597
30

783
84
0
4562
30

837
109
0
5595
31

791
104
0
5287
30

817
106
0
5464
31

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair...................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services.............................. :....
Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................

939
53
81
76
94

1238
101
121
98
67

658
129
97
47
204

1195
144
150
63
260

1163
140
146
62
253

1145
138
146
64
249

1491
176
172
67
299

1419
167
162
60
284

1441
171
170
70
289

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffic e ...............................................................................

190
62
1846
1
206

256
59
2299
1
432

321
92
1669
1
424

484
119
1953
2
546

471
116
1900
2
531

467
110
1843
2
520

552
127
2131
2
595

523
123
2049
2
568

538
118
2024
2
572

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
4
0
31
2587

0
13
0
13
4021

0
3
0
17
3496

0
6
0
26
4039

0
6
0
25
3927

0
6
0
24
3918

0
8
0
24
3397

0
8
0
23
3202

0
8
0
23
3332

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................

-120
2977
47515
-1172
0
0

-456
2347
55716
-501
0
0

363
2164
49329
-203
0
0

619
3044
48987
-785
0
0

601
2962
48987
-764
0
0

612
2892
47818
-728
0
0

1001
3588
49785
-1167
0
0

923
3427
49785
-1137
0
0

1015
3447
48068
-1083
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add fa totals because of rounding.




95

Table A-13. Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1972

1967

Low

High II

High I

Low

High I

High II

T otal..........................................................................................

80558

98238

73512,

92913

91214

92297

102903

98405

102772

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c...................................................

0
0
0
0
2

0
0
0
0
4

0
0
0
0
3

0
0
0
0
5

0
0
0
0
5

0
0
0
0
5

0
0
0
0
8

0
0
0
0
7

0
0
0
0
7

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services..............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

-1
25
17
0
372

7
19
-70
0
89

-1
12
-25
0
-8

1
15
-15
0
1

1
15
-15
0
1

1
15
-15
0
1

3
15
-23
0
-2

3
14
-22
0
-2

3
15
-23
0
-2

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

55
0
32
0
1553

59
0
13
0
1330

36
0
11
-2
981

49
0
27
-1
1637

47
0
27
-1
1591

48
0
27
-1
1601

50
0
40
-4
2056

46
0
37
-4
1924

49
0
39
-4
2039

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................... ............................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

1302
3158
8
0
0

4482
3004
9
0
0

2068
2336
4
0
0

1730
3233
6
0
0

1681
3142
6
0
0

1692
3162
6
0
0

1912
3347
7
0
0

1789
3133
7
0
0

1896
3319
7
0
0

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

6
0
0
0
1

6
0
0
0
1

5
0
0
0
1

17
0
0
0
1

17
0
0
0
1

17
0
0
0
1

26
0
0
0
1

25
0
0
0
1

26
0
0
0
1

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c.................................................................
Tobaccd manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................
Floor covering m ills ............. ...................................................

0
0
0
41
3

0
13
0
82
7

0
-5
0
24
8

0
10
0
45
15

0
10
0
43
15

0
10
0
44
15

0
12
0
56
19

0
12
0
52
18

0
12
0
55
19

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................
Logging....................................................................................

6
0
54
72
0

7

0
105
349
0

-1
0
82
125
0

4
0
133
123
0

4
0
129
119
0

4
0
130
120
0

10
0
155
154
0

10
0
145
144
0

10
0
154
153
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers.................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household ..............................

12
16
6
12
23

10
33
26
30
48

10
42
9
15
46

12
61
10
27
62

12
59
10
27
60

12
59
10
27
60

19
64
12
33
63

17
60
12
31
59

18
63
12
33
62

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

52
11
0
53
270

89
33
1
36
225

33
10
1
16
148

59
12
1
49
167

57
12
1
47
163

57
12
1
48
164

73
10
1
69
184

68
10
1
65
172

72
10
1
68
182

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

937
4
147
18
17

600
6
763
-10
31

507
6
285
20
15

804
8
550
24
55

781
8
534
24
53

786
8
538
24
54

1072
9
573
22
62

1003
9
537
21
58

1063
9
568
22
61

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

D rugs.......................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tubes ..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tubes...............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

16
34
4
823
59
9
31
0
5
11

87
48
5
1053
82
211
69
0
17
13

80
27
12
703
37
120
42
0
6
18

146
47
27
741
50
164
90
0
7
24

142
45
27
1303
48
159
88
0
7
23

143
46
27
1312
49
160
88
0
7
23

183
56
37
740
51
171
104
0
10
29

172
52
34
1’336
47
160
98
0
9
27

182
55
36
1416
50
170
103
0
9
29

See footnotes at end of table.




96

Tabs© A-13. Federal G overnm ent purchases, detense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—
-Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

59
1
1
73
420

38
1
2
57
450

77
8
3
34
105

113
17
6
72
154

110
17
6
70
150

111
17
6
70
151

133
23
7
95
170

124
22
7
89
159

132
23
7
94
169

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ...........................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

7
109
23
-29
9

85
29
47
-24
16

88
63
23
-76
8

112
102
38
-46
10

109
99
37
-44
10

110
99
37
-45
10

112
117
43
-74
10

105
110
40
-69
10

111
116
43
-73
10

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .............................

5
82
31
15
10

6
247
121
18
59

18
310
41
4
37

30
494
73
8
99

29
480
71
8
96

29
483
71
8
97

42
587
90
11
152

39
550
84
10
142

42
582
89
11
151

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

47
215
13
230
87

228
450
29
414
99

152
191
9
114
52

268
293
18
182
84

261
284
18
176
81

262
286
18
178
82

291
344
29
211
97

272
322
28
198
91

288
341
29
209
96

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c..................................... ...........
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

93
13
305
71
332

135
39
298
127
221

66
44
160
46
248

117
91
255
73
828

114
89
248
71
805

115
89
249
72
810

146
109
296
86
1475

137
102
277
80
1381

145
109
294
85
1463

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

20
51
236
225
10

22
107
343
408
12

21
63
251
169
9

43
126
592
278
18

41
122
576
270
18

42
123
579
272
18

57
163
827
438
23

53
153
774
410
22

56
162
820
434
23

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

33
36
155
5155
329

43
58
220
5793
555

52
29
178
4427
456

75
66
257
6693
922

73
64
250
6504
896

73
64
251
6545
902

95
90
281
7515
1067

89
84
263
7034
999

94
89
278
7451
1058

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment................................................................

136
1181
9968
1343
6

240
1236
9434
1599
4

92
455
7422
1408
1

210
1438
13012
1834
6

204
1398
12063
1783
6

205
1407
12138
1794
6

290
1874
14551
2223
10

271
1753
12974
2081
10

287
1858
13745
2204
10

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c..............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

1
1
392
38
15

1
2
461
112
20

1
1
368
44
29

1
6
903
97
47

1
6
878
95
46

1
6
883
95
46

1
10
1063
134
63

1
10
995
125
59

1
10
1054
133
63

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware ............................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

108
1
3
5
54
210
19
675
323
389

300
111
2
7
76
404
33
1348
820
1020

206
26
3
3
41
245
29
913
505
645

327
52
8
7
82
335
42
1089
802
1025

318
50
8
7
80
326
40
1059
780
996

320
51
8
7
80
328
41
1065
784
1002

382
68
11
10
107
350
45
1307
935
1193

357
64
10
10
100
328
42
1224
875
1117

378
67
11
10
106
347
44
1296
927
1183

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

13
0
0
349
401

18
0
0
443
284

12
0
0
607
404

20
0
0
1263
592

19
0
0
1228
576

20
0
0
1235
579

22
0
0
1682
650

21
0
0
1574
609

22
0
0
1668
645

See footnotes at end of table.




97

Table A -13. Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale tra d e .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...................

44
34
1458
218
-91

38
39
1715
234
-130

54
52
899
274
-32

65
83
1428
465
-49

63
81
1388
452
-47

64
82
1396
454
-48

77
96
1662
559
-65

72
90
1556
523
-61

76
95
1648
554
-64

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

5
0
42
0
108

3
0
25
0
159

3
0
12
0
154

6
0
36
0
195

6
0
35
0
190

6
0
36
0
191

8
0
55
0
208

8
0
51
0
194

8
0
54
0
206

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

417
15
0
2044
6

634
12
0
1877
3

462
51
0
2047
17

622
55
0
3518
29

604
53
0
3419
29

608
54
0
3441
29

638
71
0
4274
30

597
66
0
4000
29

633
70
0
4237
30

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

404
32
73
92
15

518
80
112
129
52

394
87
85
70
122

715
92
135
111
152

695
90
132
108
148

699
90
132
109
149

892
117
158
129
184

835
109
147
120
173

885
116
156
128
183

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

67
40
791
1
149

101
5
818
1
312

217
3
390
1
209

345
7
620
2
275

335
7
602
2
267

337
7
606
2
269

401
10
721
2
311

376
10
675
2
291

398
10
715
2
308

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation..............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
2
0
21
2186

0
9
0
8
3413

0
3
0
13
2919

0
3
0
13
3413

0
3
0
13
3317

0
3
0
13
3338

0
4
0
10
2815

0
4
0
10
2635

0
4
0
10
.2791

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

-241
1358
37898
0
0
0

-297
775
45842
0
0
0

20
636
35552
0
0
0

753
1360
32473
0
0
0

732
1322
32473
0
0
0

736
1330
33190
0
0
0

1358
1832
32719
0
0
0

1271
1715
32719
0
0
0

1347
1816
33185
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




98

Table A-14. Federal G overnm ent purchases, nondefens®, seleeted historieal and projeeted v©®rs, 19S3 t©
1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
High I

Low

High II

Low

High I

High II

T ota l..........................................................................................

21395

26647

28613

35503

35004

32240

37007

36506

33395

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton........................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

3
4
492
-551
-148

4
4
-874
-549
308

2
2
22
-820
-182

3
3
337
-427
146

3
3
328
-415
142

3
3
313
-396
135

2
3
343
-596
199

2
3
334
-581
194

2
3
318
-554
185

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services..............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining ................................................
9. Copper ore mining....................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper......................

-751
2
-10
0
14

-820
2
-1
0
67

-532
4
0
0
1

-492
4
0
0
-1

-479
4
0
0
-1

-457
4
0
0
-1

-573
4
0
0
2

-558
4
0
0
2

-532
4
0
0
2

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

13
0
99
0
682

12
0
112
0
1067

11
0
50
0
1098

13
97
43
0
1406

12
94
42
0
1369

12
90
40
0
1305

12
165
32
0
1477

11
161
31
0
1439

11
153
29
0
1371

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

38
1279
9
105
9

56
2127
56
629
23

22
1316
24
192
11

66
1492
41
120
18

64
1453
40
117
17

61
1384
38
111
16

71
1441
49
143
21

70
1404
48
139
21

66
1337
46
133
20

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar...................................... .................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

12
5
1
0
0

73
9
1
1
0

35
4
1
1
0

55
7
1
1
0

54
7
1
1
0

51
7
1
1
0

65
8
1
1
0

63
8
1
1
0

60
8
1
1
0

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c.................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

3
39
0
0
2

5
19
0
0
4

2
37
0
1
4

4
28
0
1
6

4
28
0
1
6

4
26
0
1
6

6
18
0
1
7

6
17
0
1
7

6
17
0
1
7

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

4
0
46
11
0

7
0
58
20
0

10
0
49
20
0

10
0
69
24
0

10
0
67
23
0

10
0
64
22
0

11
0
77
24
0

10
0
75
24
0

10
0
71
22
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

S a w m ills a n d p la n in g m i l l s .............................................................................

41

18

7

6

6

Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

33
0
17
53

60
6
60
96

42
5
50
85

42
6
68
112

41
6
66
109

6
39
6
63
104

5
43
6
75
120

5
42
6
73
117

5
40
6
69
111

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products.........................................................................
Paperboard..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c............................................ ......

76
3
0
54
-27

127
9
1
26
152

110
9
1
22
201

144
10
1
29
223

140
10
1
28
217

134
10
1
27
207

154
11
1
30
227

150
10
1
30
221

143
10
1
28
211

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

144
15
56
0
0

349
25
95
0
0

194
9
47
0
0

306
21
76
0
0

298
20
74
0
0

284
19
71
0
0

377
28
82
0
0

368
28
80
0
0

350
26
76
0
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s ..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................

75
10
48
233
13
9
6
0

54
43
-29
368
44
17
18
4

74
22
9
202
33
24
29
1

116
50
25
247
49
40
42
2

113
49
24
241
48
39
41
2

107
47
23
229
45
37
39
2

136
66
31
-257
57
46
46
3

133
64
30
251
55
45
45
3

127
61
29
239
53
43
43
3

See footnotes at end of table.




99

Tab!© A - 14. F e d e ra l G o v e rn m e n t p u rch a s es , n o n d e fe n s e , s e le c te d h is to ric a l a n d p ro je c te d y e a rs , 1963 to
199 0 —-C on tin ued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Actual

Projected

Sector

1985 alternatives
1963

1967

Low
59. Leather products, including footwear.....................................
60. Glass ........................................................................................

1990 alternatives

1972
High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

1
10

4
18

3
19

5
24

5
23

5
22

6
26

6
26

6
24

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products ..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

276
4
1
3
199

238
5
3
19
14

125
5
8
22
35

122
8
10
30
32

119
8
10
30
32

113
8
10
28
30

131
9
13
34
25

128
9
12
33
25

122
9
12
31
23

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

4
43
0
-205
0

4
89
0
-173
0

4
103
0
38
0

5
125
0
24
0

5
122
0
23
0

5
116
0
22
0

5
133
0
39
0

5
130
0
38
0

5
124
0
36
0

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .............................

5
259
8
5
17

6
267
60
7
44

8
294
31
5
37

10
355
56
8
48

10
345
55
8
47

10
329
52
8
45

13
367
69
9
51

12
358
68
9
50

12
341
64
9
48

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

47
48
2
38
14

50
97
7
31
34

79
136
5
26
34

99
165
8
36
40

97
161
8
35
39

92
153
8
33
37

96
172
9
39
44

93
168
9
38
43

89
160
9
36
41

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery .........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

41
16
44
7
121

68
23
92
16
191

52
21
62
13
261

88
29
102
17
589

85
28
100
16
573

81
27
95
16
546

92
32
123
17
672

90
31
120
16
655

86
29
114
16
624

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus ................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

84
2
50
31
8

181
12
94
80
6

170
19
62
68
4

281
25
85
96
6

274
24
82
94
6

261
23
78
89
6

343
27
91
106
7

334
27
89
103
7

318
25
85
98
7

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

E le c tr ic lig h tin g a n d w i r i n g ............................................................................

34

40

48

66

64

35
17
570
44

48
30
820
118

42
27
833
169

79
48
950
223

77
47
925
217

61
74
45
881
207

73

Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

101
60
1027
231

72
98
58
1001
225

68
94
56
954
214

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c..............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft.....................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

33
100
1511
136
2

42
287
1039
264
4

33
189
624
197
2

54
273
867
360
3

53
266
844
350
3

50
254
804
334
3

58
307
955
448
3

56
300
931
437
3

54
285
886
416
3

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

0
3
127
38
13

0
2
100
52
36

0
3
132
61
72

0
4
162
94
130

0
4
158
91
126

0
4
151
87
120

0
4
174
108
189

0
4
169
105
185

0
4
161
100
176

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation............................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation................. ..................................................

77
1
-6
0
32
99
16
248
11
118

63
1
-5
4
96
141
11
422
0
211

74
3
-25
2
62
78
10
234
9
182

114
3
-13
4
107
100
10
300
14
221

111
3
-12
4
105
98
10
293
13
215

106
3
-12
4
100
93
10
279
13
205

136
3
-8
6
132
105
11
314
16
225

133
3
-8
6
129
103
10
306
15
219

126
3
-8
6
123
98
10
291
15
208

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................
117. Transportation services..........................................................

2
0

5
0

3
0

6
0

6
0

6
0

7
0

7
0

7
0

See footnotes at end of table.




100

Table A-14. Federal Government purchases, nondefense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1967

1963

1972
Low

118. Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
119. Communications, except radio and television.......................
120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

0
61
-185

0
204
10

0
251
104

0
403
30

0
392
29

0
374
28

0
424
45

0
413
44

0
394
42

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

21
15
361
72
83

16
14
557
76
74

26
4
468
94
43

28
10
529
111
54

28
10
515
108
53

26
10
491
103
50

32
15
580
126
63

31
14
565
123
61

29
14
539
117
59

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

729
-10
50
0
248

677
6
42
0
370

754
-21
-15
0
291

728
-17
7
0
402

709
-16
7
0
391

675
-16
7
0
373

824
-12
24
0
442

804
24
0
431

765
-11
22
0
410

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

200
22
0
526
7

253
-22
0
1042
6

147
41
0
968
1

189
33
0
1209
1

184
32
0
1177
1

175
30
0
1121
1

199
38
0
1321
1

194
37
0
1288
1

184
36
0
1226
1

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c............................................ ........
Automobile repair...................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................

535
22
8
-16
79

720
22
9
-30
14

264
41
12
-23
82

481
52
15
-48
109

468
51
14
-47
106

446
48
14
-45
101

599
60
15
-62
114

584
58
14
-60
112

556
56
14
-58
106

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals....................................................... ..........................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffic e ...............................................................................

123
22
1055
0
57

155
54
1481
0
120

104
89
1279
0
216

140
112
1333
0
271

136
109
1298
0
264

130
104
1237
0
252

151
117
1410
0
284

147
114
1375
0
277

140
108
1309
0
264

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
2
0
10
402

0
4
0
5
607

0
1
0
4
577

0
3
0
13
626

0
3
0
12
609

0
3
0
12
581

0
4
0
14
582

0
4
0
13
568

0
4
0
13
541

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

121
1620
9617
-1172
0
0

-159
1572
9874
-501
0
0

343
1528
13777
-203
0
0

-134
1684
16514
-785
0
0

-131
' 1639
16514
-764
0
0

-124
1562
14628
-728
0
0

-357
1756
17066
-1167
0
0

-348
1712
17066
-1137
0
0

-331
1631
14883
-1083
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




101

-11

Table A-15. State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Actual

Projected
1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

T ota l..........................................................................................

95427

123085

150693

190238

192080

192080

198423

204500

204500

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

41
1
0
9
115

51
3
0
14
125

70
2
0
20
192

59
6
0
12
251

60
6
0
12
258

60
6
0
12
258

66
6
0
12
263

69
6
0
12
282

69
6
0
12
282

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services..............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining....................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper......................

3
23
0
0
0

4
54
0
0
0

7
63
0
0
0

8
45
0
0
0

8
44
0
0
0

8
44
0
0
0

9
48
0
0
0

9
49
0
0
0

9
49
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

17
0
331
36
4983

28
0
465
41
5482

22
0
525
49
7342

26
0
502
39
7053

26
0
507
39
7203

26
0
507
39
7203

28
0
502
35
7439

29
0
536
38
8030

28
0
536
38
8030

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

9
0
339
249
234

10
0
413
282
274

18
0
825
461
404

8
0
790
469
388

16
0
812
489
409

16
0
812
489
409

7
0
882
518
431

14
0
939
565
471

14
0
939
565
471

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products .................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products................................................ ..........
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

38
105
8
53
-6

44
122
9
56
2

64
157
18
70
-9

61
146
12
60
-10

63
156
13
66
-10

63
156
13
66
-10

66
173
14
67
-8

72
194
15
75
-9

72
194
15
75
-9

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c.................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................
Floor covering m ills .................................................................

41
94
0
34
36

47
116
2
43
50

55
190
1
58
69

49
183
-1
112
43

55
199
-2
116
43

55
199
-2
116
43

60
210
-1
116
48

68
238
-2
126
49

68
238
-2
126
49

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel ....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c................................. ...........
Logging....................................................................................

12
0
66
15
0

4
0
65
23
0

5
0
84
49
0

5
0
173
67
0

6
0
266
69
0

6
0
266
69
0

5
0
175
71
0

7
0
287
77
0

7
0
287
77
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers.................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

236
347
0
37
287

242
607
0
58
450

95
339
0
43
491

79
278
0
56
655

80
283
0
57
657

80
283
0
57
657

77
271
0
60
737

81
288
0
63
771

81
288
0
63
771

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

235
20
3
566
302

339
29
6
911
405

537
40
2
995
839

610
38
3
1059
986

624
41
3
1036
994

624
41
3
1036
994

598
41
3
1210
1050

638
47
4
1225
1112

638
47
4
1225
1112

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

89
72
76
1
0

100
83
92
1
0

236
91
97
1
0

285
118
58
0
0

285
120
60
0
0

285
120
60
0
0

320
108
59
1
0

335
116
64
1
0

335
116
64
1
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.

Drugs.......................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products...............................
Tires and inner tu b es..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b es..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................

287
114
91
860
84
91
131
0

514
190
174
1158
113
109
170
0

886
174
150
1694
60
123
172
0

2020
213
138
1600
100
130
211
0

2037
215
137
1653
114
155
219
0

2037
215
137
1653
114
155
219
0

2360
223
137
1680
105
135
223
0

2499
235
143
1821
126
170
240
0

2499
235
143
1821
126
170
240
0

See footnotes at end of table.




102

Tabs® A-15. State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1967

1963

1972
Low

59. Leather products, including footwear.....................................
60. Glass .......................................................................................

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

4
61

4
127

9
148

6
157

9
161

9
161

6
171

9
183

9
183

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

1426
167
44
256
446

1855
160
51
316
376

2043
120
36
278
308

1672
106
41
231
250

1694
107
43
236
258

1694
107
43
236
258

1575
105
43
226
237

1681
110
47
241
257

1681
110
47
241
257

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

145
438
7
0
5

113
588
4
0
7

429
236
3
0
10

381
191
2
0
6

385
194
2
0
6

385
194
2
0
6

360
189
2
0
7

383
200
2
0
7

383
200
2
0
7

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................

170
2072
12
21
90

179
2686
10
19
152

129
2193
12
27
176

94
2545
10
27
156

97
2567
10
-1
160

97
2567
10
-1
160

95
2610
11
33
160

102
2762
11
5
170

102
2762
11
5
170

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.......................................... .
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

273
52
32
193
44

382
74
39
190
71

408
86
44
152
71

321
95
61
214
56

315
96
67
217
59

315
96
67
217
59

301
99
59
214
55

311
106
68
228
60

311
106
68
228
60

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

29
8
85
99
43

39
16
64
147
74

42
16
82
179
89

46
16
54
168
331

46
16
60
175
324

46
16
60
175
324

49
19
52
188
351

51
19
62
206
354

51
19
62
206
354

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

95
220
173
55
29

156
307
165
58
57

188
411
237
76
59

208
506
254
103
78

207
513
258
104
82

207
513
258
104
82

225
568
261
109
85

233
599
277
116
93

233
599
277
116
93

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

419
27
1
115
14

473
48
0
146
22

393
53
1
153
21

327
61
1
234
21

333
60
1
245
30

333
60
1
245
30

334
69
1
305
21

355
70
1
324
31

355
70
1
324
31

48
1058
2
7
72

48
1143
4
17
104

130
1529
2
9
77

134
1632
4
13
77

134
1632
4
13
77

131
1594
2
8
80

143
1782
3
12
86

143
1782
3
12
86

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

40
881 '
2
6
57

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

6
6
146
69
12

8
9
183
111
23

18
18
188
127
23

6
14
301
300
28

12
15
308
305
28

12
15
308
305
28

5
12
331
323
31

11
14
355
344
32

11
14
355
344
32

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

127
6
8
72
123
329
399
876
57
183

202
5
14
85
154
352
614
1043
61
310

331
8
19
176
350
308
687
1178
97
313

411
7
14
157
324
276
598
1076
104
448

419
7
14
158
301
281
592
1101
107
459

419
7
14
158
301
281
592
1102
107
459

412
8
15
164
323
275
629
1050
104
457

439
8
17
172
311
293
642
1126
111
490

439
8
17
172
311
293
642
1126
111
490

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................
117. Transportation services..........................................................

10
1

15
0

20
0

20
0

21
0

21
0

20
0

22
0

22
0

See footnotes at end of table.




103

Table A-15. State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1967

1963

1972
Low

118. Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
119. Communications, except radio and television.......................
120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

0
450
1068

0
636
1585

0
1224
1814

0
1725
1723

0
1790
1758

0
1790
1758

0
1782
1758

0
1943
1865

0
1943
1865

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale tra d e .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

288
-32
1640
-1445
554

313
32
2169
-1534
782

607
49
2601
-1691
606

632
54
2721
-1903
548

635
60
2823
-1813
559

635
60
2823
-1813
559

660
51
2876
-2282
557

685
54
3107
-2239
599

685
54
3107
-2239
599

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

1047
162
352
0
581

1107
172
420
0
746

1758
179
516
0
1634

2841
158
565
0
2013

2869
187
571
0
2049

2869
187
571
0
2049

2752
138
564
0
2060

2947
184
595
0
2205

2947
184
595
0
2205

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

107
291
0
1435
276

-44
351
0
1809
315

92
526
0
2124
474

351
551
0
4005
493

390
549
0
4098
495

390
549
0
4098
495

296
588
0
4389
511

362
612
0
4696
540

362
612
0
4696
540

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair...................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

1985
232
27
-511
274

1547
352
42
-489
624

3492
472
31
-476
1426

3827
459
52
-424
2307

3893
486
54
-413
2327

3893
486
54
-413
2327

3923
452
57
-435
2391

4169
503
60
-438
2534

4169
503
60
-438
2534

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

511
484
26
6
203

1172
1147
48
10
286

2324
3252
-7
9
558

4015
4497
78
20
652

4050
4536
143
20
669

4050
4536
143
20
669

4326
5022
58
22
673

4585
5323
134
23
727

4585
5323
134
23
727

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
0
0
31
6

0
0
0
39
8

0
0
0
42
12

0
0
0
38
6

0
0
0
42
7

0
0
0
42
7

0
0
0
40
6

0
0
0
45
8

0
0
0
45
8

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

1185
9873
52717
0
0
0

1478
14586
66237
0
0
0

1038
11413
82619
0
0
0

684
11312
112180
0
0
0

683
11556
112180
0
0
0

683
11556
112180
0
0
0

636
10943
117800
0
0
0

672
11828
117800
0
0
0

672
11828
117801
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




104

Table A-16. State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
19©0
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1972

1967

High I

Low

High II

Low

High I

High II

T ota l..................................... .....................................................

39328

52486

63816

70798

70402

70402

72083

72105

72105

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

30
0
0
3
45

36
0
0
5
51

42
0
0
8
103

35
0
0
3
75

34
0
0
3
73

34
0
0
3
73

39
0
0
3
95

39
0
0
3
95

39
0
0
3
95

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining....................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

2
8
0
0
0

2
29
0
0
0

3
34
0
0
0

3
23
0
0
0

3
22
0
0
0

3
22
0
0
0

3
27
0
0
0

3
27
0
0
0

3
27
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

11
0
25
0
935

21
0
22
0
1022

10
0
45
0
2220

15
0
31
0
1805

14
0
30
0
1754

14
0
30
0
1754

17
0
38
0
1972

17
0
38
0
1975

17
0
38
0
1975

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products.........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s.......................................................

1
0
228
194
175

0
0
250
202
189

1
0
538
320
254

0
0
453
270
194

0
0
440
262
189

0
0
440
262
189

1
0
496
295
218

1
0
497
295
218

1
0
497
295
218

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
S ugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

29
79
5
48
1

32
87
5
50
1

44
111
11
62
1

36
86
9
46
1

35
84
9
45
1

35
84
9
45
1

40
106
10
52
2

40
106
10
52
2

40
106
10
52
2

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c.................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................
Floor covering m ills .................................................................

31
63
1
8
34

33
70
1
13
44

33
112
1
14
54

23
79
0
9
30

23
77
0
9
29

23
77
0
9
29

32
95
0
11
35

32
95
0
11
35

32
95
0
11
35

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit go o ds...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

9
0
4
6
0

4
0
4
7
0

2
0
4
9
0

1
0
6
7
0

1
0
5
7
0

1
0
5
7
0

1
0
6
8
0

1
0
6
8
0

1
0
6
8
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

55
107
0
20
173

80
218
0
37
321

31
111
0
28
307

26
94
0
31
377

25
91
0
30
366

25
91
0
30
366

28
102
0
35
457

28
103
0
36
458

28
103
0
36
458

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

108
10
3
528
106

182
16
6
814
167

254
20
1
890
323

215
14
2
910
273

209
14
2
884
265

209
14
2
884
265

235
16
2
1047
300

235
16
2
1049
301

235
16
2
1049
301

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals...........................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

36
10
9
1
0

46
18
15
1
0

91
26
23
1
0

73
14
10
0
0

71
14
9
0
0

71
14
9
0
0

84
16
11
0
0

84
16
11
0
0

84
16
11
0
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s...............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................

22
74
31
146
3
13
56
0

51
124
44
256
5
10
71
0

64
83
63
404
7
22
68
0

61
80
51
322
9
12
65
0

59
78
50
313
9
11
63
0

59
78
50
313
9
11
63
0

71
87
56
391
11
13
71
0

71
87
56
391
11
13
71
0

71
87
56
391
11
13
71
0

See footnotes at end of table.




105

Table A=16. State and local governm ent p u rch a s es , e d u c a tio n , s e le c te d h is to ric a l and projected years, 1963 to
1©96-=Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1972

1967

1963

Low
59. Leather products, including footwear.....................................
60. Glass .......................................................................................

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector

Low

High II

High I

High II

High I

0
28

0
65

0
59

0
37

0
36

0
36

0
43

0
43

0
43

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products ..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

294
91
18
109
89

469
81
20
138
54

257
39
11
89
52

210
33
14
75
40

204
32
14
72
39

204
32
14
72
39

231
36
17
81
44

231
36
17
81
44

231
36
17
81
44

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

18
123
5
0
5

15
152
3
0
7

15
87
2
0
10

12
70
1
0
6

12
68
1
0
6

12
68
1
0
6

13
77
1
0
7

13
77
1
0
7

13
77
1
0
7

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products ........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .............................

108
657
2
29
53

110
921
4
32
79

55
691
8
49
102

30
676
6
41
80

29
657
6
40
78

29
657
6
40
78

35
743
7
45
88

35
744
7
45
88

35
744
7
45
88

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

61
0
6
5
11

138
0
14
1
13

44
0
13
4
16

35
0
14
4
9

34
0
14
4
9

34
0
14
4
9

38
0
16
4
11

38
0
16
4
11

38
0
16
4
11

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

15
8
41
78
33

20
15
11
128
63

20
15
21
141
61

19
15
11
120
287

18
15
11
117
279

18
15
11
117
279

22
18
13
130
307

22
18
13
130
308

22
18
13
130
308

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

55
158
65
11
12

100
219
71
20
31

111
208
79
19
30

99
182
65
18
25

96
177
64
17
24

96
177
64
17
24

115
210
70
20
28

115
210
70
20
28

115
210
70
20
29

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

187
24
0
40
3

220
44
0
80
6

147
45
0
91
6

124
48
0
181
6

120
46
0
176
6

120
46
0
176
6

144
57
0
252
7

144
57
0
253
7

144
57
0
253
7

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft.....................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

4
145
0
0
0

10
224
0
0
0

9
218
0
0
0

7
227
0
0
0

7
221
0
0
0

7
221
0
0
0

8
263
0
0
0

8
263
0
0
0

8
263
0
0
0

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

0
5
63
4
11

0
8
71
10
18

0
17
45
11
17

0
12
36
12
19

0
12
35
11
18

0
12
35
11
18

0
10
41
13
22

0
10
41
13
22

0
10
41
13
22

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation........... 4
........................................................

43
4
7
43
76
90
334
263
9
64

77
4
12
43
126
112
508
251
12
129

121
4
16
127
215
88
560
323
20
100

98
3
10
77
180
62
454
273
13
111

95
3
10
75
174
61
441
265
12
107

95
3
10
75
174
61
441
265
12
107

102
4
11
89
198
74
501
300
15
128

102
4
11
89
198
74
502
300
15
128

102
4
12
89
198
74
502
300
15
128

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................
117. Transportation services..........................................................

2
0

4
0

3
0

4
0

4
0

4
0

4
0

4
0

4
0

See footnotes at end of table.




106

Table A - 16. State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

118. Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
119. Communications, except radio and television.......................
120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives
High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

0
95
539

0
185
914

0
319
873

0
260
785

0
253
763

0
253
763

0
286
875

0
286
876

0
286
876

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

178
52
587
-1650
-17

201
99
914
-1753
-19

415
141
952
-1999
-25

404
171
790
-2374
-20

392
167
767
-2307
-19

392
167
767
-2307
-19

467
184
976
-2715
-20

468
185
977
-2719
-20

468
185
977
-2719
-20

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

22
1
151
0
106

26
2
209
0
123

19
1
221
0
349

15
1
187
0
287

14
1
182
0
279

14
1
182
0
279

16
1
204
0
306

17
1
205
0
306

17
1
205
0
306

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

-96
109
0
393
100

-304
121
0
469
116

-289
195
0
801
153

-330
178
0
799
119

-321
173
0
777
116

-321
173
0
777
116

-368
191
0
1010
127

-369
191
0
1012
127

-369
191
0
1012
127

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair...................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

432
59
18
-500
0

556
79
33
-486
0

1231
80
25
-424
0

1060
64
31
-375
0

1030
62
30
-364
0

1030
62
30
-364
0

1164
74
36
-381
0

1166
74
36
-382
0

1166
74
36
-382
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

-3
0
-20
2
20

-7
0
-24
2
40

-7
0
-33
3
48

-8
0
-50
3
38

-8
0
-49
3
36

-8
0
-49
3
36

-9
0
-65
4
43

-9
0
-65
4
43

-9
0
-65
4
43

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
0
0
11
2

0
0
0
20
3

0
0
0
23
6

0
0
0
17
1

0
0
0
16
1

0
0
0
16
1

0
0
0
19
2

0
0
0
19
2

0
0
0
19
2

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

228
2200
29215
0
0
0

127
3982
37241
0
0
0

61
2223
47116
0
0
0

52
1944
56688
0
0
0

51
1890
56688
0
0
0

51
1890
56688
0
0
0

56
1562
56690
0
0
0

56
1565
56690
0
0
0

56
1565
56690
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




107

Table A-17. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years,
1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
Sector

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives
1967

1963

1972
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

T ota l..........................................................................................

13335

18620

29124

48215

48446

48446

52790

54525

54525

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

9
0
0
1
9

14
0
0
1
13

26
0
0
2
29

23
0
0
2
37

24
0
0
2
38

24
0
0
2
38

26
0
0
3
42

28
0
0
3
45

28
0
0
3
45

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper......................

1
1
0
0
0

2
3
0
0
0

4
4
0
0
0

5
4
0
0
0

5
4
0
0
0

5
4
0
0
0

6
4
0
0
0

6
4
0
0
0

6
4
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

1
0
8
0
477

2
0
9
0
207

3
0
34
0
284

3
0
45
0
276

3
0
45
0
278

3
0
45
0
278

4
0
48
0
334

4
0
50
0
354

4
0
50
0
354

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products.........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s.......................................................

0
0
88
45
49

0
0
137
68
73

0
0
249
127
133

0
0
305
174
170

0
0
308
176
172

0
0
308
176
172

0
0
356
195
190

0
0
377
207
201

0
0
377
207
201

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products .................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages ................................................................

5
14
2
2
-2

7
22
3
3
-2

14
38
6
6
1

14
48
3
7
2

14
48
3
7
2

14
48
3
7
2

15
53
3
8
2

16
57
3
9
3

16
57
3
9
3

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

6
26
0
22
0

9
40
0
23
1

18
71
0
38
2

20
87
0
99
3

20
88
0
100
3

20
88
0
100
3

22
97
0
101
4

24
103
0
107
4

24
103
0
107
4

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging....................................................................................

1
0
21
10
0

1
0
16
16
0

1
0
29
28
0

1
0
69
44
0

1
0
70
44
0

1
0
70
44
0

1
0
76
47
0

1
0
81
50
0

1
0
81
50
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

17
52
0
2
9

17
54
0
3
13

11
29
0
4
32

11
30
0
10
57

11
31
0
10
58

11
31
0
10
58

11
30
0
11
64

11
31
0
11
68

11
31
6
11
68

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

30
6
0
8
20

49
9
0
8
32

95
14
0
20
66

158
18
0
56
153

160
18
0
56
154

160
18
0
57
154

157
20
0
65
179

167
21
0
69
190

167
21
0
69
190

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals...........................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

23
1
9
0
0

33
2
12
0
0

75
3
24
0
0

123
3
24
0
0

124
3
24
0
0

124
3
24
0
0

138
3
25
0
0

146
4
27
0
0

146
4
27
0
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b es..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................

262
17
5
58
2
22
39
0

460
27
10
89
4
40
44
0

818
54
10
129
6
54
50
0

1953
76
13
131
18
81
78
0

1970
77
13
132
18
82
79
0

1970
77
13
132
18
82
79
0

2283
83
14
139
23
87
89
0

2420
88
14
147
24
92
94
0

2420
88
14
147
24
92
94
0

See footnotes at end of table.




108

Table A-17. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years,
1963 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

’ 1963

1972
High I

Low

High II

High I

Low

High II

59. Leather products, including footwear.....................................
60. Glass .......................................................................................

1
26

1
44

2
71

3
111

3
112

3
112

4
120

4
127

4
127

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products ..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

84
21
4
33
89

102
17
4
32
70

256
39
3
64
40

264
40
6
61
42

267
40
6
61
42

267
40
6
61
42

257
39
8
59
40

272
41
9
63
43

272
41
9
63
43

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ...........................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

47
114
0
0
0

30
127
0
0
0

175
25
0
0
0

180
26
0
0
0

182
26
0
0
0

182
26
0
0
0

175
25
0
0
0

185
27
0
0
0

185
27
0
0
0

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products........................................................ '
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .............................

12
234
5
4
7

11
251
2
4
11

32
180
2
5
25

33
186
2
8
31

33
188
2
8
31

33
188
2
8
31

32
181
2
9
31'

34
191
2
10
33

34
191
2
10
33

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

33
0
2
18
8

54
0
3
29
14

17
0
3
33
21

19
0
7
63
22

19
0
7
64
22

19
0
7
64
22

19
0
8
71
21

20
0
9
75
23

20
0
9
75
23

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

3
0
10
1
2

3
0
1
1
3

3
0
12
1
4

7
0
12
2
19

7
0
12
2
19

7
0
12
2
19

8
0
11
3
22

9
0
12
3
23

9
0
12
3
23

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

5
23
16
4
9

10
36
10
4
14

15
130
35
3
16

49
265
37
7
43

49
268
37
7
44

49
268
37
7
44

54
305
36
8
48

58
323
38
9
51

58
323
38
9
51

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

34
1
0
9
1

54
3
0
6
1

30
6
0
3
1

36
10
0
5
2

36
10
0
5
2

36
10
0
5
2

36
9
0
5
2

38
10
0
6
2

38
10
0
6
2

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

13
26 •
0
0
0

18
50
0
0
0

21
66
0
0
0

56
279
0
0
0

57
282
0
0
0

57
282
0
0
0

63
340
0
0
0

66
361
0
0
0

66
361
0
0
0

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c..............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

0
0
36
61
1

0
0
54
98
5

0
0
67
108
6

0
0
194
281
10

0
0
196
283
10

0
0
196
283
10

0
0
223
303
9

0
0
236
321
10

0
0
236
321
10

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

51
1
1
0
5
25
10
84
12
18

76
1
2
1
9
30
17
114
15
32

123
1
3
5
27
38
32
249
21
37

208
2
3
3
35
49
46
307
51
103

210
2
3
3
35
49
46
310
51
103

210
2
3
3
35
49
46
310
51
103

224
2
3
3
32
50
43
296
52
107

238
2
4
3
34
53
46
314
55
114

238
2
4
3
34
53
46
314
55
114

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................
117. Transportation services..........................................................

1
0

2
0

2
0

3
0

3
0

3
0

4
0

4
0

4
0

See footnotes at end of table.




109

Table A -17. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years,
1983 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1963

1967

1972
Low

118. Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
119. Communications, except radio and television.......................
120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

0
34
51

0
65
87

0
130
103

0
229
233

0
231
235

0
231
235

0
234
240

0
247
254

0
247
254

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

19
-10
201
50
115

20
-15
303
53
182

51
-40
533
75
264

66
-21
734
131
386

66
-21
741
132
390

66
-21
741
132
390

64
-24
802
123
408

68
-25
850
130
433

68
-25
850
130
433

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

4
0
35
0
75

7
1
64
0
153

9
1
123
0
335

10
1
185
0
565

10
1
186
0
570

10
1
186
0
570

9
1
179
0
593

10
1
190
0
629

10
1
190
0
629

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

31
181
0
178
23

58
229
0
291
24

101
331
0
511
32

222
371
0
1562
39

224
374
0
1575
39

224
374
0
1575
39

229
394
0
1756
42

242
418
0
1861
45

242
418
0
1861
45

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair...................................................................
Motion pictures................................................ ......................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

233
23
0
0
274

293
43
0
1
624

734
31
1
1
1426

1416
93
1
1
2307

1428
94
1
1
2327

1428
94
1
1
2327

1489
94
1
2
2391

1578
99
1
2
2534

1578
99
1
2
2534

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

514
484
1
• 3
51

1179
1147
2
5
102

2331
3252
2
2
218

4023
4497
6
11
292

4058
4536
6
11
295

4058
4536
6
11
295

4335
5022
6
11
304

4594
5323
7
12
322

4594
5323
7
12
322

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable imports.........................................................

0
0
0
2
1

0
0
0
2
1

0
0
0
4
2

0
0
0
4
1

0
0
0
4
1

0
0
0
4
1

0
0
0
5
1

0
0
0
5
1

0
0
0
5
1

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households...................................................................... r:.....
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

22
839
7325
0
0
0

26
1082
9550
0
0
0

29
1455
12386
0
0
0

24
1734
21430
0
0
0

24
1749
21430
0
0
0

24
1749
21430
0
0
0

25
1796
23799
0
0
0

27
1903
23799
0
0
0

27
1903
23799
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




110

Table A-18. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1967

1963

1972
High I

Low

High II

High I

Low

High II

T otal..........................................................................................

7246

8894

11621

15805

17468

17468

16664

18515

18515

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

1
0
0
0
5

2
0
0
0
6

2
0
0
0
4

1
0
0
0
7

3
0
0
0
14

3
0
0
0
14

1
0
0
0
6

3
0
0
0
14

3
0
0
0
14

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper......................

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

0
0
1
0
54

0
0
1
0
102

0
0
3
0
132

0
0
2
0
146

0
0
4
0
299

0
0
4
0
299

0
0
2
0
173

0
0
3
0
389

0
0
3
0
389

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

7
0
23
10
10

9
0
26
12
11

16
0
37
14
16

7
0
30
25
24

15
0
62
51
49

15
0
62
51
49

6
0
28
28
23

13
0
62
63
52

13
0
62
63
52

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar........................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages ................................................................

1
12
1
3
0

1
13
1
3
0

1
8
1
2
0

3
12
1
7
0

6
25
1
14
0

6
25
1
14
0

3
14
1
7
0

7
31
1
15
0

7
31
1
15
0

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c.................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

5
5
-1
0
0

5
6
-1
2
0

4
8
-1
4
1

6
17
-2
3
1

12
35
-3
5
1

12
35
-3
5
1

5
18
-2
3
0

11
40
-3
6
1

11
40
-3
6
1

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

-1
0
33
-7
0

-2
0
38
-7
0

1
0
47
2
0

1
0
90
2
0

3
0
183
3
0

3
0
183
3
0

2
0
85
2
0

4
0
192
4
0

4
0
192
4
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

1
3
0
2
12

2
7
0
3
10

2
10
0
7
16

1
5
0
2
10

2
10
0
4
20

2
10
0
4
20

1
4
0
2
12

2
9
0
3
27

2
9
0
3
27

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

15
3
0
2
10

19
3
0
3
15

17
4
0
2
9

16
4
0
2
9

33
8
0
4
17

33
8
0
4
17

13
3
0
2
8

29
7
0
5
18

29
7
0
5
18

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

0
0
2
0
0

0
0
3
0
0

0
1
3
0
0

0
1
2
0
0

0
2
4
0
0

0
2
4
0
0

0
1
2
0
0

0
2
4
0
0

0
2
4
0
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.

Drugs.......................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................

1
4
0
37
13
37
3
0

1
5
0
47
18
44
4
0

1
3
0
73
16
42
6
0

2
3
0
48
13
23
7
0

4
7
0
98
26
48
15
0

4
7
0
98
26
48
15
0

2
3
0
43
12
23
7
0

3
6
0
96
28
52
15
0

3
6
0
96
28
52
15
0

See footnotes at end of table.




111

Table A-18. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1967

1963

1972
High I

Low
59. Leather products, including footwear.....................................
60. Glass .......................................................................................

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector

High I

Low

High II

High II

2
3

2
4

7
10

3
4

6
8

6
8

2
3

5
7

5
7

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c......... ......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

11
4
2
5
6

19
3
2
6
5

26
3
1
12
10

14
1
2
6
6

28
2
4
12
13

28
2
4
12
13

10
1
2
5
5

23
2
4
10
11

23
2
4
10
11

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

1
5
0
0
0

1
6
0
0
0

2
7
0
0
0

1
4
0
0
0

2
8
0
0
0

2
8
0
0
0

1
3
0
0
0

1
7
0
0
0

1
7
0
0
0

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products ............. .......................
Screw machine products........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................

4
28
0
-17
5

4
40
0
-19
7

6
43
0
-28
8

3
22
0
-26
6

7
45
0
-53
12

7
45
0
-53
12

3
17
0
-24
5

6
39
0
-53
11

6
39
0
-53
11

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

-5
0
4
0
3

-2
0
5
0
4

-2
0
5
0
5

-8
0
6
0
3

-16
0
12
1
5

-16
0
12
1
5

-7
0
5
0
2

-16
0
11
1
5

-16
0
11
1
5

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

0
0
8
2
0

0
0
9
5
0

0
0
11
8
0

0
0
6
10
0

0
0
12
20
0

0
0
12
20
0

0
0
5
11
0

0
0
12
25
0

0
0
12
25
0

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

1
6
3
1
3

1
7
4
1
4

2
13
7
1
5

1
9
4
0
5

2
18
7
1
9

2
18
7
1
9

1
7
3
0
4

2
16
6
1
9

2
16
6
1
9

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

10
0
0
16
9

11
0
0
21
12

9
0
0
32
7

8
0
0
14
8

16
0
0
29
17

16
0
0
29
17

6
0
0
13
7

14
0
0
29
17

14
0
0
29
17

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft.....................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

3
93
2
4
0

5
114
2
5
0

4
176
4
15
0

4
95
2
4
0

8
193
4
7
0

8
193
4
7
0

3
83
2
3
0

7
185
3
7
0

7
185
3
7
0

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

6
1
6
2
0

8
1
7
3
0

18
2
12
4
0

6
2
6
3
0

12
4
11
5
0

12
4
11
5
0

5
2
4
2
0

11
4
10
5
0

11
4
10
5
0

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses...........................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation................ ,.............................................
Air transportation....................................................................

6
0
1
2
-18
6
6
28
2
10

7
0
1
2
-20
7
7
28
2
13

9
0
1
2
-18
9
6
39
2
11

9
0
1
3
-19
5
5
26
2
11

17
0
2
5
-39
10
9
52
4
22

17
0
2
5
-39
10
9
52
4
22

7
0
1
2
-18
4
4
21
2
9

15
0
2
5
-39
9
8
48
4
20

15
0
2
5
-39
9
8
48
4
20

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................
117. Transportation services..........................................................

1
0

1
0

2
0

1
0

2
0

2
0

1
0

2
0

2
0

See footnotes at end of table.




112

Table A -18. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

High I

Low

High II

118. Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
119. Communications, except radio and television.......................
120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

0
44
43

0
54
49

0
55
50

0
56
46

0
114
95

0
114
95

0
48
39

0
109
88

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding public................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...................

15
5
98
7
10

13
6
126
8
11

16
7
95
12
12

13
11
104
18
6

26
23
211
37
12

26
23
211
37
12

10
11
88
16
5

22
24
198
35
11

22
24
198
35
11

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

1
18
8
0
26

1
20
11
0
16

2
22
8
0
36

1
27
7
0
27

2
55
15
0
56

2
55
15
0
56

1
31
6
0
22

2
70
14
0
50

2
70
14
0
50

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

20
0
0
80
1

26
0
0
94
1

19
0
0
62
1

23
0
0
83
1

46
0
0
170
3

46
0
0
170
3

19
0
0
73
1

43
0
0
163
3

43
0
0
163
3

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair...................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

37
24
2
1
0

47
30
3
1
0

71
58
3
1
0

69
25
2
1
0

140
51
4
2
0

140
51
4
2
0

56
21
2
1
0

126
48
4
2
0

126
48
4
2
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffic e ...............................................................................

0
0
26
0
12.

0
0
30
0
15

0
0
10
0
12

0
0
60
0
13

0
0
122
0
26

0
0
122
0
26

0
0
57
0
11

0
0
128
0
24

0
0
128
0
24

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation..............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
0
0
4
1

0
0
0
5
1

0
0
0
5
1

0
0
0
4
1

0
0
0
9
2

0
0
0
9
2

0
0
0
4
1

0
0
0
8
3

0
0
0
8
3

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

-29
102
6104
0
0
0

-3
173
7391
0
0
0

-43
193
9891
0
0
0

-6
204
14207
0
0
0

-11
417
14207
0
0
0

-11
417
14207
0
0
0

-4
201
15177
0
0
0

-10
452
15177
0
0
0

-10
452
15178
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




113

0
109
88

Table A-19. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
Low

High I

High II

High II

High I

Low

T otal..........................................................................................

35518

43086

46132

55420

55764

55764

56887

59355

59355

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

0
1
0
5
56

0
3
0
7
56

0
2
0
11
56

0
6
0
6
132

0
6
0
7
133

0
6
0
7
133

0
5
0
6
120

' 0
6
0
6
129

0
6
0
6
129

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ..............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

0
14
0
0
0

0
23
0
0
0

0
26
0
0
0

0
18
0
0
0

0
18
0
0
0

0
18
0
0
0

0
17
0
0
0

0
18
0
0
0

0
18
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

5
0
297
36
3517

5
0
433
41
4151

9
0
444
49
4706

8
0
424
39
4826

8
0
428
39
4873

8
0
428
39
4873

7
0
415
35
4959

8
0
444
38
5311

8
0
444
38
5311

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

1
0
1
0
0

0
0
1
0
0

0
0
.1
0
0

0
0
2
0
0

0
0
2
0
0

0
0
2
0
0

0
0
2
0
0

0
0
2
0
0

0
0
2
0
0

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products .................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages ................................................................

4
0
0
0
-4

4
0
0
0
3

5
0
0
0
-10

8
0
0
0
-13

8
0
0
0
-13

8
0
0
0
-13

8
0
0
0
-12

8
0
0
0
-13

8
0
0
0
-13

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ................................................... ......
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

0
0
1
4
2

0
0
2
4
6

0
0
1
1
12

0
0
1
2
10

0
0
1
2
10

0
0
1
2
10

0
0
1
2
9

0
0
1
2
10

0
0
1
2
10

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel ....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................
Logging....................................................................................

3
0
8
7
0

1
0
7
7
0

2
0
4
10
0

1
0
8
15
0

1
0
8
15
0

1
0
8
15
0

1
0
8
14
0

1
0
9
15
0

1
0
9
15
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household ..............................

163
185
0
12
93

143
328
0
14
107

51
189
0
5
136

41
149
0
13
211

41
151
0
13
213

41
151
0
13
213

37
136
0
12
204

40
145
0
13
219

40
145
0
13
219

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

82
1
0
29
168

89
1
0
87
191

171
2
1
83
441

221
2
1
91
552

223
2
1
92
557

223
2
1
92
557

193
2
1
95
563

206
2
1
102
603

206
2
1
102
603

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals...........................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

29
61
56
0
0

22
64
63
0
0

70
61
48
0
0

89
100
23
0
0

90
101
23
0
0

90
101
23
0
0

98
88
21
0
0

105
94
22
0
0

105
94
22
0
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.

Drugs .......................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tubes..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................

1
20
55
619
67
19
33
0

1
34
120
767
87
15
52
0

3
35
77
1089
30
5
49
0

4
54
74
1099
61
14
62
0

4
54
74
1109
61
14
62
0

4
54
74
1109
61
14
62
0

4
51
68
1108
59
13
56
0

4
54
73
1187
63
14
60
0

4
54
73
1187
63
14
60
0

See footnotes at end of table.




114

Table A-19. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
1990—
-Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1967

1963

1972
Low

59. Leather products, including footwear.....................................
60. Glass .......................................................................................

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector

High II

High I

High I

Low

High II

0
5

0
14

0
8

0
6

0
6

0
6

0
6

0
6

0
6

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products..............................................
Structural clay products..........................................................
Pottery and related products..................................................
Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

1037
52
20
111
261

1266
60
25
140
247

1503
41
22
114
207

1184
32
18
90
163

1196
33
18
91
165

1196
33
18
91
165

1078
29
16
82
148

1154
31
17
88
159

1154
31
17
88
159

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ...........................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

78
197
2
0
0

67
303
1
0
0

238
116
1
0
0

188
92
1
0
0

190
92
1
0
0

190
92
1
0
0

171
83
1
0
0

183
89
1
0
0

183
89
1
0
0

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products ........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .............................

46
1154
5
6
24

54
1474
4
2
56

36
1279
3
1
41

28
1661
2
4
39

29
1677
2
4
39

29
1677
2
4
39

26
1670
2
3
36

28
17S8
4
38

28
1788
2
4
38

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery ......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

184
52
19
170
22

193
74
18
160
40

349
86
24
115
29

276
95
35
148
23

278
96
35
149
23

278
96
35
149
23

251
99
30
138
21

269
106
32
148
22

269
106
32
148
22

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery .........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

12
0
27
19
9

16
0
43
14
8

18
1
39
29
23

20
1
25
36
25

20
1
25
36
25

20
1
25
36
25

20
1
22
45
22

21
1
24
48
24

21
1
24
48
24

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

33
33
89
39
5

45
44
81
35
8

61
60
116
53
8

59
50
149
78
6

59
51
150
78
6

59
51
150
78
6

55
46
153
81
5

59
49
163
86
6

59
49
163
86
6

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

189
1
1
49
2

189
2
0
40
4

207
3
1
28
8

159
4
1
34
5

161
4
1
35
5

161
4
1
35
5

148
3
1
35
5

159
4
1
37
5

159
4
1
37
5

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c......... .................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

21
617
0
2
57

16
670
0
2
72

15
683
0
2
104

62
928
0
5
77

63
937
0
5
77

63
937
0
5
77

57
908
0
5
80

61
973
0
5
86

61
973
0
5
86

£L

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c..............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

0
0
40
2
0

0
0
51
2
0

0
0
64
3
0

0
0
66
5
0

0
0
67
5
0

0
0
67
5
0

0
0
63
5
0

0
0
67
5
0

0
0
67
5
0

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o ds..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation.....................................................................

27
1
0
27
61
209
50
501
34
92

42
1
0
39
39
203
82
650
32
136

77
2
0
42
126
173
89
568
53
166

96
2
0
75
129
160
95
470
39
224

97
2
0
76
130
161
96
475
39
226

97
2
0
76
130
161
96
475
39
226

79
2
0
70
111
146
81
433
35
213

84
2
0
75
119
157
86
464
38
228

84
2
0
75
119
157
86
464
38
228

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................
117. Transportation services..........................................................

6
0

8
0

14
0

12
0

13
0

13
0

11
0

12
0

12
0

See footnotes at end of table.




115

Table A-19. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to
1§90=Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1963

1967

1972
High I

Low

High II

High I

Low

High II

118. Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
119. Communications, except radio and television.......................
120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................

0
277
435

0
333
534

0
720
787

0
1181
659

0
1192
666

0
1192
666

0
1215
604

0
1301
647

0
1301
647

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding public................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...................

77
-78
755
148
446

80
-58
826
158
609

125
-59
1021
221
355

150
-107
1093
322
176

151
-108
1104
325
177

151
-108
1104
325
177

119
-120
1010
294
164

127
-129
1082
315
175

127
-129
1082
315
175

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

1020
142
158
0
374

1073
149
138
0
453

1727
155
164
0
915

2816
128
186
0
1134

2843
130
187
0
1144

2843
130
187
0
1144

2725
105
174
0
1139

2919
112
186
0
1220

2919
112
186
0
1220

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

151
1
0
785
152

176
1
0
956
174

261
1
0
750
289

437
2
0
1561
334

441
2
0
1576
337

441
2
0
1576
337

417
3
0
1550
341

446
3
0
1660
365

446
3
0
1660
365

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists' services..............................................

1284
126
7
-12
0

652
200
5
-4
0

1455
303
3
-53
0

1283
277
18
-52
0

1296
280
18
-52
0

1296
280
18
-52
0

1215
263
18
-57
0

1301
282
19
-61
0

1301
282
19
-61
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals............................... •..................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

0
0
19
2
120

0
0
41
3
130

0
0
13
4
281

0
0
63
6
309

0
0
64
6
312

0
0
64
6
312

0
0
60
7
316

0
0
64
7
338

0
0
64
7
338

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation..............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c.......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
0
0
14
2

0
0
0
11
3

0
0
0
10
4

0
0
0
13
2

0
0
0
13
2

0
0
0
13
2

0
0
0
12
2

0
0
0
13
2

0
0
0
13
2

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ............ .................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

964
6731
10073
0
0
0

1328
9350
12055
0
0
0

991
7543
13226
0
0
0

613
7429
19855
0
0
0

619
7501
19855
0
0
0

619
7501
19855
0
0
0

559
7384
22134
0
0
0

598
7908
22134
0
0
0

598
7908
22134
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




116

Appgndte B. Domestie Output, Employment, andl Hours,
Selected Historical and Projected Years, 1959 to 1990




117

Table B-1. Domestic output, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1959

1969

1979
Low

High I

16,958
37,024
3,266
26,519
23,598

18,313
38,965
3,490
28,745
25,878

19,689
42,068
3,891
31,768
28,268

19,943
42,411
3,819
31,184
27,748

3,401
5,379
1,845
1,509
736

3,387
5,340
1,823
1,494
729

3,601
5,754
2,012
1,498
763

3,791
6,439
2,299
1,735
851

3,773
6,446
2,227
1,702
823

Low
Dairy and poultry products ......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

10,786
23,509
2,629
11,573
11,510

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ......................

1,927
2,498
653
800
553

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector

11,219
28,150
1,967
15,969
15,104
1,401
3,272
1,330
1,497 '
611

High I

13,765
33,730
2,772
21,130
21,458

16,285
35,635
3,146
25,591
22,771

17,016
37,195
3,318
26,892
23,930

3,190
4,799
1,216
1,554
787

3,255
5,041
1,731
1,410
685

High II

'High II

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

3,987
12,062
2,041
474
31,064

5,202
17,091
2,711
734
34,502

7,115
16,127
3,716
961
42,349

11,383
17,713
3,620
1,258
48,098

12,193
18,807
3,780
1,326
51,351

11,984
18,727
3,755
1,300
51,142

13,557
17,450
3,952
1,447
54,653

15,314
18,898
4,347
1,600
61,420

14,919
18,756
4,325
1,538
61,752

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s.......................................................

1,257
3,626
21,584
13,296
7,249

6,837
5,800
28,919
13,466
11,064

2,540
4,394
36,250
17,958
14,738

3,301
5,443
38,956
20,597
16,252

3,434
5,384
40,622
21,521
16,964

3,407
5,327
40,480
21,452
16,904

3,755
5,712
43,182
22,300
17,836

3,999
5,662
46,320
23,947
19,122

4,053
5,767
46,845
24,291
19,361

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products .................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
S ugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

9,062
7,503
2,422
2,470
6,606

12,010
8,364
3,079
3,194
10,423

15,334
8,530
3,217
3,735
15,110

17,266
8,663
3,813
3,917
16,793

18,052
9,076
3,861
4,085
17,252

17,937
9,056
3,856
4,073
17,198

19,408
8,977
3,932
4,253
19,472

20,970
9,664
4,062
4,546
20,263

21,055
9,829
4,128
4,611
20,314

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering mills .................................................................

3,032
8,819
8,319
12,617
747

5,262
11,943
8,658
16,476
2,342

8,836
14,507
9,111
21,359
4,263

9,923
15,723
9,517
23,668
4,943

10,389
16,448
9,773
25,575
5,345

10,353
16,323
9,670
25,476
5,305

11,934
17,683
9,649
26,994
5,672

12,836
19,115
10,068
30,234
6,532

13,020
19,103
9,890
30,314
6,537

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................
Logging....................................................................................

1,762
2,706
15,734
2,335
3,000

2,696
5,430
21,327
4,457
4,168

3,438
7,555
23,557
5,651
6,702

3,834
8,567
28,329
6,071
5,933

4,135
9,288
30,612
6,735
6,267

4,102
9,303
30,678
6,691
6,188

4,255
9,695
32,578
6,869
6,705

4,865
10,651
35,664
8,188
7,359

4,823
10,778
36,129
8,267
7,215

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers.................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household ..............................

6,161
4,386
535
4,391
1,889

6,062
7,033
602
5,851
3,422

7,200
11,542
331
8,159
4,716

7,812
12,524
399
9,308
4,817

8,178
13,214
427
10,078
5,550

8,126
13,151
423
10,029
5,542

8,489
13,430
446
10,296
5,521

9,029
15,003
504
12,039
7,244

8,990
15,051
500
12,317
7,258

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

12,052
4,592
6,110
5,952
8,043

18,802
7,492
7,777
8,849
12,000

24,370
9,970
9,092
10,416
15,492

26,392
10,855
10,776
12,577
18,237

28,151
11,618
11,843
13,499
19,524

27,937
11,549
11,767
13,409
19,418

30,260
12,402
12,351
14,643
20,908

33,937
14,009
14,105
16,760
23,733

33,802
14,033
14,176
16,808
23,816

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

8,077
1,862
2,704
2,464
1,493

14,313
3,553
4,364
5,218
3,619

20,751
5,030
5,302
7,736
7,377

25,480
5,854
6,319
8,893
7,649

27,114
6,162
6,733
9,588
8,235

26,727
6,051
6,662
9,460
8,169

29,819
6,905
7,245
10,632
9,062

33,530
7,621
8,162
12,291
10,140

32,780
7,384
8,065
12,059
10,044

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs .......................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products ...............................
Tires and inner tubes ..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b es..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass .......................................................................................

2,949
4,211
2,534
19,893
3,226
2,775
3,428
1,217
4,726
3,496

6,363
7,568
3,261
29,246
5,111
4,292
8,208
1,094
5,071
5,041

11,898
10,705
3,956
40,330
6,041
2,917
17,192
1,018
4,158
6,702

14,471
11,868
4,698
35,320
7,318
5,513
18,637
1,068
4,648
7,733

14,861
12,608
5,044
38,422
8,104
5,962
20,082
1,118
4,915
8,275

14,817
12,492
5,012
38,214
8,074
5,930
19,883
1,115
4,926
8,214

16,966
13,431
5,370
33,951
8,228
6,363
23,352
1,158
5,035
9,090

18,457
15,176
6,160
38,383
9,907
7,360
27,096
1,211
5,359
10,313

18,314
15,222
6,154
38,275
9,839
7,334
26,930
1,206
5,425
10,277

61. Cement and concrete products ..............................................
62. Structural clay products ..........................................................

6,112
1,053

7,998
1,142

9,582
1,239

10,076
1,298

10,492
1,355

10,459
1,348

10,744
1,401

11,824
1,474

11,885
1,475




118

Table B-1. Domestic output, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1985 alternatives

Sector
1959

1969

Low
63. Pottery and related products..................................................
64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c...................... .........................
65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

1990 alternatives

1979
High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

644
2,986
24,022

857
3,903
32,317

896
5,526
31,388

919
5,649
34,166

957
6,037
37,218

944
5,996
36,948

1,024
6,356
35,638

1,116
7,294
42,015

1,110
7,263
41,494

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products............................ ........
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ...........................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

5,274
6,772
4,022
3,440
3,091

8,127
10,633
7,170
5,513
4,665

8,258
13,570
9,706
4,943
5,132

9,831
14,216
11,283
6,494
6,124

10,983
15,334
12,264
6,862
6,418

10,896
15,198
12,146
6,787
6,384

10,751
16,109
13,227
7,376
6,851

13,183
18,887
15,546
8,403
7,424

13,008
18,657
15,305
8,149
7,449

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products ........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................

1,835
7,639
2,837
5,513
2,978

2,350
12,322
3,417
8,082
4,612

2,261
16,488
3,545
9,946
5,908

2,440
17,128
4,096
10,896
6,627

2,591
18,202
4,519
12,189
7,218

2,575
18,122
4,482
12,076
7,160

2,725
18,789
4,650
12,199
7,569

2,997
21,768
5,589
14,792
8,869

2,993
21,790
5,534
14,572
8,809

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery ......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

5,679
2,681
3,641
5,132
1,484

9,028
4,878
4,590
7,273
2,934

12,240
7,022
8,220
11,477
3,461

12,828
7,947
9,537
13,938
4,094

13,917
8,917
10,770
15,814
4,720

13,802
8,808
10,720
15,569
4,697

14,688
9,110
11,499
17,272
5,047

17,283
11,328
14,736
22,129
6,671

17,130
11,093
14,627
21,475
6,632

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery.........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

5,118
3,751
5,167
2,645
1,736

8,602
5,914
8,368
4,642
6,084

9,253
6,023
10,649
5,908
16,010

10,494
6,647
12,146
6,449
23,727

12,073
7,692
13,708
7,107
26,997

11,983
7,628
13,575
7,049
26,572

12,233
7,156
14,634
7,522
35,901

15,959
9,401
18,610
9,024
46,082

15,774
9,235
18,314
8,925
44,824

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus ................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

770
2,394
2,933
3,234
3,408

1,489
6,115
4,661
5,602
6,146

2,608
10,294
6,863
7,260
7,797

3,221
11,342
7,690
8,009
8,186

3,705
12,650
8,646
8,937
8,996

3,679
12,578
8,594
8,854
8,940

3,882
12,985
9,261
9,735
9,331

5,088
15,969
11,654
12,043
10,890

5,046
15,911
11,584
11,896
11,066

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus.........................'............
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

3,237
1,397
1,466
3,874
2,673

5,112
3,902
3,752
11,225
7,452

6,347
5,571
5,863
13,256
18,085

7,083
7,544
6,923
15,052
20,734

7,669
8,851
8,056
15,762
22,707

7,614
8,685
8,031
15,657
22,283

8,263
7,790
8,422
18,087
27,435

9,637
11,238
11,234
20,205
33,145

9,602
11,237
11,226
20,348
32,183

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

2,200
32,900
18,389
2,619
1,386

3,730
58,796
26,226
3,926
2,767

6,122
83,710
26,116
5,470
4,938

7,390
7,339
7,918
9,676
9,578
6,583
86,974 101,956 101,872 102,124 130,214 129,675
37,519 39,981 39,297
32,006 32,647 32,171
6,900
7,628
9,080
9,139
6,384
6,962
4,987
6,774
4,073
4,753
4,733
6,743

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

177
716
3,182
897
917

388
2,748
3,561
2,101
1,112

859
3,963
5,639
3,802
2,002

915
4,561
6,481
4,620
2,500

1,082
5,030
7,162
5,116
2,711

1,057
5,011
7,098
5,089
2,699

1,082
4,999
7,497
5,592
3,157

1,521
5,958
9,108
7,003
3,856

1,537
5,984
9,015
6,970
3,829

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................... .............

1,483
554
1,458
2,070
3,053
12,034
6,603
17,796
7,035
4,245

4,383
1,097
2,502
3,260
4,800
15,107
6,341
25,788
5,888
12,860

8,036
1,529
2,793
4,463
5,986
16,862
5,683
33,948
10,128
18,618

9,920
1,867
2,957
5,290
7,073
19,120
6,601
38,106
10,742
21,745

11,204
1,996
3,003
6,117
7,629
20,560
6,969
41,215
11,400
23,435

11,092
1,990
3,005
6,058
7,577
20,386
6,955
40,928
11,165
23,226

11,830
2,083
3,173
5,894
7,958
21,492
7,325
43,907
12,412
27,219

14,747
2,403
3,583
7,209
9,146
24,556
7,964
50,573
13,787
31,265

14,573
2,388
3,557
7,243
9,133
24,382
7,957
50,476
13,271
30,911

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

775
868
5,275
12,337
13,382

1,402
1,395
4,556
25,545
26,363

1,911
1,729
3,554
54,461
43,213

1,987
2,303
5,659
78,575
51,301

2,151
2,475
6,114
83,582
54,942

2,133
2,085
2,342
2,311
2,442
2,752
3,150
3,079
6,081
6,547
7,513
7,534
83,116 108,161 119,993 119,324
54,576 61,459 69,147 69,632

121.
122.
123.
124.

Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade .....................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................

10,250
1,754
51,805
33,547

18,582 18,783 18,976 19,698 19,614 19,736 21,321 21,190
2,335
2,937
3,927
3,395
3,558
3,545
4,316
4,345
87,369 125,277 138,230 150,516 149,508 160,490 187,564 187,177
45,502 55,323 66,257 70,755 70,604 75,854 83,359 84,355




119

Table B-1. Domestic output, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected

Actual
1985 alternatives

Sector
1969

1959

1990 alternatives

1979
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...................

71,149

99,834 136,492 141,694 156,380 156,012 166,930 194,271 196,755

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

13,526
9,340
24,979
41,966
43,508

22,177 33,212 38,899 40,686 40,471 44,862 48,701 48,972
13,575 16,383 19,255 22,836 23,062 21,677 26,699 27,030
31,867 49,717 53,989 56,421 56,355 64,211 72,472 72,950
66,891 112,752 116,740 129,850 130,088 135,401 157,740 160,714
77,142 124,874 134,598 145,865 145,363 154,421 176,464 177,440

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

5,166
12,711
3,447
16,293
2,326

7,824
17,474
4,399
34,518
2,917

9,995
17,443
4,045
58,042
4,138

12,371
19,312
4,133
62,431
4,893

13,496
22,076
4,495
66,775
5,286

13,413
22,103
4,504
66,377
5,258

14,235
20,909
4,067
73,683
5,654

15,763
25,620
4,873
83,500
6,487

15,981
26,130
5,024
83,669
6,502

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair...................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................

17,249
16,119
4,228
5,375
13,215

25,801
22,259
3,774
7,730
20,384

39,607
32,324
7,550
11,957
28,906

42,359
34,989
8,647
14,967
35,334

45,097
37,859
9,715
16,282
36,889

44,886
37,695
9,581
16,132
37,022

49,671
41,435
9,965
18,439
41,531

56,847
48,144
12,055
21,435
47,321

57,433
48,010
12,000
21,834
47,996

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

8,543
3,608
12,210
9,615
5,542

17,474
7,282
14,189
14,157
7,918

31,404
13,507
13,671
20,315
8,375

38,019
16,061
15,023
21,752
9,794

39,649
16,928
15,689
23,492
10,456

39,400
16,880
15,789
23,571
10,402

46,203
18,772
16,542
25,288
10,958

53,745
22,870
17,791
29,857
12,361

54,211
23,063
18,022
30,420
12,457

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c.......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
1,834
1,196
5,068
0

0
2,811
1,460
7,528
0

0
3,070
1,645
8,546
0

0
3,449
2,030
10,527
0

0
3,796
2,142
11,167
0

0
3,780
2,138
11,116
0

0
4,020
2,250
12,082
0

0
4,633
2,443
13,504
0

0
4,656
2,441
13,519
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households ............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................




0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
90,256 120,220 111,341 138,298 147,652 147,342 146,050 167,728 168,946
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,716
5,784
4,106
3,986
4,068
4,065
3,961
4,004
4,013
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

120

Table B-2. Toflal em ploym ent, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990
(Thousands of jobs)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1959

1969

1979
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cott_.i.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

1,551
979
565
960
1,436

814
756
178
635
1,111

511
528
142
639
995

440
504
136
646
896

496
567
150
716
993

497
568
150
715
992

355
453
122
592
814

396
506
137
675
920

411
524
135
661
903

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...............................................
9. Copper ore mining...................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper......................

47
261
33
23
31

41
296
30
34
25

76
447
30
33
39

76
514
34
32
39

78
544
37
33
41

74
515
34
32
39

79
543
35
35
40

83
593
38
37
43

76
543
33
36
40

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

201
200
105
19
662

138
157
99
18
792

265
211
103
25
1,292

389
271
104
29
1,297

418
279
109
30
1,360

390
270
102
29
1,314

412
311
104
32
1,424

473
325
109
34
1,532

412
307
100
32
1,460

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products.........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

50
94
324
326
249

175
107
344
260
291

75
81
364
189
306

94
76
374
180
287

100
79
390
188
300

89
82
365
167
317

102
70
380
159
289

111
73
404
169
307

98
77
372
147
323

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
Sugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages..............................................................

139
313
38
79
107

137
286
36
87
97

146
240
30
79
88

153
218
35
72
69

160
228
36
75
71

149
221
34
74
72

155
204
34
71
62

166
218
35
75
65

151
209
33
73
65

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................
Floor covering m ills ................................................................

111
144
95
619
39

142
151
83
616
58

151
163
70
532
60

153
155
69
565
66

160
162
73
588
71

148
160
70
561
68

157
148
65
534
62

167
158
68
546
69

152
156
67
529
64

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

74
221
1,100
143
143

82
251
1,244
182
138

70
229
1,132
200
148

77
247
1,202
227
117

82
267
1,304
239
123

75
246
1,227
229
117

75
238
1,190
234
114

83
262
1,320
251
121

73
232
1,205
236
108

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture.................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household..............................

305
261
43
259
124

230
310
36
316
153

237
386
25
331
176

228
357
21
363
180

238
373
22
383
197

224
378
22
369
188

222
344
21
379
180

231
370
22
409
215

215
374
22
390
194

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

415
175
328
156
446

, 483
231
376
210
550

493
215
435
230
641

529
214
472
269
643

535
223
505
284
676

528
219
486
266
657

547
222
506
303
664

548
234
549
329
717

545
230
526
305
693

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals...........................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers .......................................................................

260
54
82
81
79

296
65
124
108
132

323
70
100
101
118

398
71
104
103
103

407
72
107
110
110

402
68
109
107
109

418
74
114
97
93

427
76
118
108
101

425
71
122
106
102

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products...............................
Tires and inner tu b es..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b e s ..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

106
89
62
217
105
178
94
36
341
153

143
123
72
182
119
162
320
29
316
188

194
140
69
210
122
167
493
20
234
205

217
139
70
185
124
193
549
18
228
226

227
149
71
198
129
197
561
18
238
233

217
141
69
185
126
198
541
18
229
227

229
146
71
184
126
180
659
15
212
240

247
162
75
202
129
182
669
16
226
252

232
152
69
184
126
183
645
15
214
242

61. Cement and concrete products..............................................
62. Structural clay products..........................................................

209
78

228
64

254
52

256
49

266
51

260
48

254
44

268
45

261
43

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.




121

Table B-2. Total em ployment, s e le c te d historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued
(Thousands of jobs)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1959

1969

1979
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

63. Pottery and related products..................................................
64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products ...............................

49
125
588

45
140
644

51
164
569

56
167
597

58
176
605

54
172
597

57
172
584

60
187
586

55
181
583

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ...........................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

269
137
111
78
75

312
160
153
93
87

324
159
169
90
81

363
160
169
107
92

374
167
178
110
97

361
161
167
105
94

376
164
174
112
92

387
171
181
114
100

377
165
170
108
95

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products ........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .............................

71
344
88
189
135

76
440
114
255
165

76
538
117
243
186

95
551
128
258
216

100
583
133
272
227

99
555
128
264
215

101
583
140
266
227

106
640
151
290
241

103
601
143
277
227

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

231
90
128
162
65

315
112
141
202
95

378
145
183
283
109

414
147
200
332
136

433
162
211
358
146

425
153
204
335
137

443
149
217
369
149

472
175
239
474
183

461
160
224
369
150

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery .........................................................
Special industry machinery.....................................................
General industrial machinery..................................................
Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

251
164
221
166
111

347
206
291
246
224

379
205
329
309
350

405
221
371
329
443

473
228
390
352
467

416
223
371
342
445

411
228
394
345
552

548
235
430
382
614

424
231
390
373
555

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus ................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

28
97
157
176
■157

52
147
207
223
187

48
188
219
251
180

71
198
236
292
181

76
214
254
313
186

66
203
241
298
180

78
200
237
307
193

90
226
278
356
198

73
208
247
315
190

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

134
114
105
252
213

205
156
146
409
394

226
115
169
357
525

273
116
186
398
576

289
129
204
407
577

280
123
203
393
578

310
99
202
424
666

336
121
232
433
670

324
116
229
418
669

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c..............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft.....................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and repair ..........................................
100. Railroad equipment................................................................

111
696
722
151
41

125
912
805
193
51

180
996
632
228
74

160
899
720
241
59

185
986
758
260
67

163
920
730
244
69

174
922
768
271
66

211
1,049
839
306
81

176
940
779
279
81

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

9
23
166
45
85

14
89
195
82
75

20
105
218
141
82

22
115
228
168
90

24
129
242
178
95

26
116
228
163
92

24
120
253
189
92

31
147
296
225
102

32
121
246
183
97

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation....................................................................

69
30
67
116
229
930
311
1,001
239
184

111
35
78
149
233
651
315
1,214
234
357

134
28
93
145
244
561
303
1,558
223
442

140
29
90
160
261
503
337
1,747
207
456

153
30
88
171
267
524
346
1,823
213
474

144
30
89
169
261
508
330
1,731
197
460

144
26
91
165
264
463
355
1,922
197
494

166
29
92
176
270
493
364
2,053
205
525

152
25
91
175
262
468
349
1,906
183
497

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private ........................................

24
70
90
749
430

18
111
131
919
460

20
192
193
1,121
606

21
218
234
1,213
640

22
227
241
1,295
698

21
221
234
1,225
643

23
241
267
1,280
650

23
262
278
1,454
758

22
246
267
1,300
654

121.
122.
123.
124.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale trade ..............................................;......................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................

215
6t
3,349
1,960

220
88
4,163
2,812

223
93
5,501
4,924

227
102
6,028
5,990

242
111
6,327
6,211

222
106
5,997
6,000

243
109
6,367
6,836

275
128
6,964
7,179

235
114
6,412
6,843




1 22

Table B-2. Total employment, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued
(Thousands of jobs)
Projected

Actual

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector
1959

1969

1979
Low

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...................

7,936

9,729

11,952

12,851

13,612

12,964

13,830

15,088

14,190

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

644
389
1,137
0
753

987
652
1,370
0
855

1,492
898
1,753
0
1,371

1,724
918
1,969
0
1,486

1,756
1,043
1,999
0
1,629

1,727
1,041
1,972
0
1,512

1,982
1,174
2,121
0
1,732

2,014
1,330
2,194
0
1,927

1,957
1,303
2,133
0
1,716

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

868
1,157
538
814
121

1,065
1,232
634
1,691
134

1,543
1,278
613
3,144
166

1,738
1,260
660
3,574
186

1,918
1,440
725
3,789
198

1,857
1,341
698
3,650
186

1,887
1,282
650
4,315
192

2,126
1,556
771
4,757
214

2,035
1,424
733
4,509
198

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.....................................................
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors' and dentists’ services..............................................

746
422
228
372
605

1,046
569
248
497
806

1,720
837
308
761
1,317

1,933
978
294
881
1,703

2,041
1,004
303
890
1,752

1,962
971
293
875
1,683

2,179
1,168
316
1,029
1,897

2,413
1,208
329
1,042
1,983

2,292
1,148
306
1,019
1,875

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services...............................................................
Nonprofit organizations ..........................................................
Post o ffic e ...............................................................................

974
283
839
1,331
574

1,776
652
1,229
1,764
732

2,621
1,403
1,683
2,244
661

3,431
1,814
1,864
2,343
668

3,528
1,885
1,931
2,471
680

3,372
1,866
1,895
2,404
670

3,968
2,312
2,099
2,638
675

4,207
2,553
2,150
2,839
700

3,954
2,403
2,075
2,722
680

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation..............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
104
71
225
0

0
152
87
351
0

0
153
130
492
0

0
174
159
606
0

0
194
168
640
0

0
178
167
610
0

0
202
185
695
0

0
236
200
775
0

0
207
190
701
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

0
3,163
0
0
2,574
0

0
3,594
0
0
2,322
0

0
4,605
0
0
1,723
0

0
5,451
0
0
1,586
0

0
5,720
0
0
1,619
0

0
5,496
0
0
1,592
0

0
5,497
0
0
1,576
0

0
5,978
0
0
1,593
0

0
5,643
0
0
1,587
0




123

Table 8=3. Total hours, all employees, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990
(Millions of hours)
Projected

Actual
Sector

1985 alternatives
1959

1969

Low
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1990 alternatives

1979
High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

Dairy and poultry products......................................................
Meat animals and livestock.....................................................
Cotton.......................................................................................
Food and feed grains...............................................................
Agricultural products, n.e.c.......................................................

3,649
2,303
1,329
2,259
3,379

1,912
1,776
418
1,492
2,609

1,212
1,252
337
1,515
2,359

1,002
1,144
314
1,499
2,074

1,120
1,279
348
1,667
2,308

1,125
1,283
348
1,664
2,303

782
996
277
1,341
1,842

859
1,097
313
1,542
2,100

893
1,137
309
1,512
2,060

6. Forestry and fishery products.................................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ..............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................
9. Copper ore mining....................................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper......................

94
508
63
52
68

81
561
64
81
55

162
983
67
71
85

149
973
76
69
88

154
1,040
79
72
93

146
980
76
69
89

154
1,021
79
74
92

162
1,130
85
81
98

149
1,032
78
77
92

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal mining..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...........................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ....................................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral m ining...................................
Maintenance and repair construction.....................................

376
435
241
43
1,273

287
351
230
42
1,560

562
479
247
58
2,481

826
595
247
67
2,510

893
615
258
70
2,665

838
593
245
68
2,566

881
683
244
75
2,771

1,023
716
258
79
3,043

904
673
242
76
2,896

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

Ordnance .................................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles......................
Meat products .........................................................................
Dairy products.........................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o ds.......................................................

105
199
692
699
498

363
226
735
553
593

158
169
754
401
621

200
160
783
390
578

211
163
812
405
600

186
170
745
351
631

216
147
797
344
583

231
150
830
359
607

201
157
746
305
633

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products ..................................................................
Bakery products......................................................................
S ugar.......................................................................................
Confectionery products...........................................................
Alcoholic beverages................................................................

311
652
84
164
221

311
595
75
177
200

321
489
62
160
183

342
454
74
150
145

355
473
75
156
149

325
450
70
148
149

348
426
72
147
132

364
446
73
153
135

325
418
67
144
132

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings.......................................................
Food products, n.e.c.................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing ..........................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills.................................................
Floor covering m ills .................................................................

233
313
192
1,318
83

291
323
162
1,323
129

310
336
139
1,128
128

321
271
135
1,199
142

334
282
141
1,234
155

302
325
135
1,241
149

328
259
125
1,153
133

342
271
132
1,187
152

305
312
125
1,215
142

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Textile mill products, n.e.c.......................................................
Hosiery and knit goods...........................................................
Apparel.....................................................................................
Fabricated textile products, n.e.c.............................................
Logging.....................................................................................

155
445
2,086
289
293

179
503
2,336
366
310

149
457
2,286
401
325

165
487
2,195
452
261

179
532
2,408
478
273

161
482
2,260
454
255

159
472
2,182
461
251

181
519
2,424
496
265

157
454
2,207
462
232

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills......................................................
Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c.........................
Wooden containers..................................................................
Household furniture .................................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household ..............................

631
561
91
547
269

480
664
76
660
327

497
802
50
666
364

480
743
43
737
372

499
777
45
789
413

469
785
44
754
391

464

480
761
45
850
453

444

712
42
767
369

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products........................................................................
Paperboard ..............................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................
Periodical and book printing, publishing................................
Printing and publishing, n.e.c...................................................

920
376
650
313
931

1,071
496
741
421
1,145

1,066
458
850
480
1,294

1,172
460
907
577
1,273

1,194
488
972
608
1,341

1,170
475
935
550
1,311

1,201
474
966
644
1,304

1,211
514
1,044
697
1,405

1,191
502
996
621
1,361

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................
Agricultural chemicals .............................................................
Chemical products, n.e.c..........................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...................................
Synthetic fibers ..................................... ..................................

551
118
174
174
165

633
141
261
234
278

675
151
211
218
252

827
152
220
223
219

841
154
226
235
232

827
144
228
228
229

863
158
240
210
198

865
158
244
229
212

855
147
249
224
212

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Drugs........................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.............................................
Paints and allied products......................................................
Petroleum refining and related products...............................
Tires and inner tu b e s..............................................................
Rubber products, except tires and tu b es..............................
Plastic products.......................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...................................
Leather products, including footwear.....................................
Glass ........................................................................................

221
185
131
457
223
378
201
74
673
320

298
258
150
392
266
339
670
60
614
400

406
291
145
461
262
347
1,031
40
454
431

456
290
143
407
267
397
1,133
37
460
483

474
309
147
433
280
410
1,175
39
484
501

450
292
142
402
273
407
1,125
37
462
486

479
303
145
409
274
372
1,370
32
437
520

507
330
154
439
286
386
1,430
34
462
551

470
308
142
397
276
382
1,365
32
436
524

61. Cement and concrete products..............................................
62. Structural clay products..........................................................

461
164

509
134

552
110

557
102

579
106

561
102

549
93

580
95

559
90




124

763
43
809
405

Table B-3. Total hours, all employees, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of hours)
Projected

Actual
1985 alternatives

Sector
1959

1969

Low
63. Pottery and related products.............. ....................................
64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................
65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products...............................

1990 alternatives

1979
High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

98
271
1,217

93
302
1,372

106
351
1,210

114
361
1,279

119
383
1,315

112
369
1,285

117
371
1,255

122
404
1,288

114
385
1,264

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings....................................
Primary copper and copper products.....................................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................
Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c......................
Metal containers .....................................................................

560
295
235
170
163

674
347
329
210
194

687
347
360
197
182

784
341
359
226
206

820
360
381
235
218

788
346
354
223
208

815
351
370
237
205

859
375
396
248
222

828
358
364
231
209

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures..............................
Fabricated structural metal products .....................................
Screw machine products ........................................................
Metal stampings......................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................

148
721
192
409
284

160
936
251
554
348

157
1,126
255
511
386

195
1,156
284
562
438

205
1,227
297
594
467

202
1,162
287
580
439

207
1,223
313
582
459

218
1,347
334
625
501

212
1,254
324
611
467

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.............................................
Engines, turbines, and generators..........................................
Farm machinery......................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery..........................
Material handling equipment..................................................

490
188
268
344
137

672
238
295
438
205

800
306
395
595
231

858
309
426
720
289

912
339
453
781
314

887
318
436
737
299

918
310
468
799
320

1,005
358
511
1,026
390

970
324
488
830
340

81. Metalworking machinery .........................................................
82. Special industry machinery.....................................................
83. General industrial machinery..................................................
84.' Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................................................
85. Computers and peripheral equipment....................................

551
351
469
372
233

780
447
627
557
475

842
435
700
670
739

917
455
801
728
958

1,032
480
839
779
964

965
465
813
753
914

950
462
867
766
1,168

1,238
496
956
846
1,280

1,036
481
893
818
1,200

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment................................
Service industry machines......................................................
Electric transmission equipment.............................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................................
Household appliances.............................................................

61
205
330
369
328

110
311
439
475
393

101
392
457
528
372

144
422
495
614
367

156
461
538
664
377

134
434
510
627
363

164
422
502
651
389

186
486
603
773
398

155
442
531
677
379

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring......................................................
Radio and television receiving sets........................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................................
Radio and communication equipment....................................
Electronic components ...........................................................

282
235
223
528
443

424
316
313
855
809

470
232
359
748
1,089

547
232
379
825
1,229

585
258
416
845
1,233

563
246
411
809
1,227

621
196
408
872
1,450

687
240
470
892
1,468

656
229
461
853
1,447

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................
97. Motor vehicles.........................................................................
98. Aircraft......................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and rep a ir..........................................
100. Railroad equipment.................................................................

237
1,476
1,513
313
83

264
1,957
1,714
410
108

378
2,113
1,331
469
158

343
1,917
1,502
488
120

386
2,166
1,571
525
135

358
2,010
1,506
488
140

380
1,968
1,596
544
133

449
2,345
1,707
607
162

400
2,080
1,573
547
162

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................
Transportation equipment, n.e.c..............................................
Scientific and controlling instruments....................................
Medical and dental instruments.............................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................

17
50
262
95
179

26
186
327
171
160

43
211
461
289
177

43
230
482
347
193

48
257
523
376
202

53
229
486
346
194

48
235
551
403
198

60
286
652
485
215

65
232
555
409
201

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Photographic equipment and supplies..................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................
Jewelry and silverware...........................................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods..............................
Manufactured products, n.e.c..................................................
Railroad transportation...........................................................
Local transit and intercity buses............................................
Truck transportation................................................................
Water transportation...............................................................
Air transportation.....................................................................

146
62
140
240
482
2,002
706
2,269
515
425

237
71
162
299
486
1,494
658
2,705
403
706

285
57
188
292
508
1,281
563
3,290
407
885

301
61
172
312
539
1,126
605
3,713
369
889

328
64
169
336
554
1,176
624
3,887
381
927

308
62
174
332
531
1,139
605
3,656
354
900

311
55
172
318
537
1,020
626
4,020
346
947

350
62
174
340
550
1,089
645
4,301
360
1,010

319
55
173
338
523
1,030
630
3,955
323
956

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation............................................................
Transportation services..........................................................
Radio and television broadcasting.........................................
Communications, except radio and television.......................
Electric utilities, public and private........................................

51
151
179
1,537
918

39
221
260
1,929
996

44
377
385
2,338
1,279

43
410
476
2,538
1,405

45
430
490
2,755
1,480

44
425
475
2,597
1,412

45
446
548
2,708
1,444

46
487
571
3,047
1,602

44
466
549
2,828
1,471

121.
122.
123.
124.

Gas utilities, excluding p ublic................................................
Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................
Wholesale tra d e ......................................................................
Eating and drinking places ....................................................

456
138
7,187
4,225

467
203
8,834
4,809

471
204
11,211
6,823

484
225
11,828
8,252

502
236
12,455
8,582

488
242
11,765
8,234

525
243
12,153
9,146

572
272
13,304
9,612

526
267
12,211
9,102




125

Table B-3. Total hours, all employees, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued
(Millions of hours)
Projected

Actual
1959

1969

1979
Low

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places...................

1990 alternatives

1985 alternatives

Sector

High I

High II

Low

High I

High II

16,394

18,235

20,717

21,491

22,835

21,747

22,502

24,565

23,104

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking....................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...................................
Insurance.................................................................................
Owner-occupied real estate...................................................
Real estate..............................................................................

1,250
771
2,311
0
1,534

1,914
1,289
2,672
0
1,710

2,824
1,738
3,443
0
2,753

3,284
1,770
3,859
0
2,832

3,358
2,020
3,931
0
3,116

3,296
2,008
3,870
0
2,885

3,775
2,263
4,157
0
3,246

3,845
2,570
4,31.1
0
3,619

3,730
2,508
4,182
0
3,215

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places.....................................................
Personal and repair services.................................................
Barber and beauty shops.......................................................
Business services, n.e.c..........................................................
Advertising ..............................................................................

1,945
2,523
1,224
1,413
236

2,097
2,515
1,304
2,800
247

2,713
2,307
1,102
5,412
319

2,813
2,181
1,160
6,108
348

3,114
2,503
1,279
6,502
372

3,092
2,275
1,195
6,249
357

2,910
2,111
1,091
7,229
353

3,283
2,568
1,295
7,990
393

3,220
2,295
1,196
7,557
372

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Professional services, n.e.c.............................................. '......
Automobile repair....................................................................
Motion pictures.......................................................................
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services..............................................

1,697
884
345
681
1,314

2,281
1,189
375
864
1,554

3,471
1,727
465
1,224
2,324

3,888
1,890
470
1,494
2,859

4,118
1,962
492
1,526
2,951

3,939
1,893
473
1,496
2,874

4,296
2,200
506
1,743
3,036

4,767
2,324
537
1,798
3,175

4,505
2,202
497
1,756
3,043

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

Hospitals..................................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals........................................
Educational services.......................................................... .
Nonprofit organizations..........................................................
Post o ffice ...............................................................................

1,909
590
1,539
2,299
1,224

3,152
1,192
2,217
3,121
1,484

4,663
2,442
1,955
3,651
1,392

5,950
2,957
2,063
3,681
1,400

6,140
3,086
2,147
3,899
1,424

5,788
3,120
2,111
3,742
1,405

6,550
3,582
2,204
3,938
1,410

6,944
3,961
2,262
4,243
1,464

6,431
3,807
2,188
4,012
1,438

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation...............................................
Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................
Local government passenger transit.....................................
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c......................
Noncomparable im ports.........................................................

0
222
154
487
0

0
308
181
732
0

0
322
270
1,023
0

0
359
332
1,267
0

0
401
350
1,339
0

0
368
349
1,275
0

0
419
383
1,454
0

0
489
414
1,620
0

0
429
393
1,465
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand goods ....................................
Construction industry..............................................................
Government industry ..............................................................
Rest of the world industry .....................................................
Households.............................................................................
Inventory valuation adjustment ..............................................

0
6,782
0
0
3,534
0

0
7,734
0
0
3,019
0

0
.9,938
0
0
2,097
0

0
11,211
0
0
2,029
0

0
11,808
0
0
2,070
0

0
11,318
0
0
2,037
0

0
11,239
0
0
2,016
0

0
12,251
0
0
2,038
0

0
11,539
0
0
2,030
0




1?6

Appendix C. Giwilian In te r F®tr©(i and In te r Fore®
Participation Rates by Age, Sex, and Race, 1982 to 2000




G-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1982

1983

1984

1985

1982

1983

1984

1985

Middle growth path

Total, 16 and o v e r.............................
to 2 4 ..................................................
and over.............................................
to 5 4 ..................................................
and o ve r.............................................

109,672
25,214
100,439
69,523
14,935

111,552
25,029
102,547
71,579
14,944

113,301
24,744
104,578
73,655
14,902

114,985
24,446
106,422
75,679
14,860

65.4
71.2
65.9
80.4
32.5

65.8
72.0
66.3
81.0
32.2

66.2
72.7
66.6
81.6
31.8

66.5
73.2
67.0
82.2
31.3

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ..............................................
20 and o ve r.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ..............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ver.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ......... .................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

61,848
13,250
4,809
1,986
2,823
8,441
57,039
39,512
17,092
8,834
8,258
12,604
6,990
5,614
9,816
4,921
4,895
9,086
7,207
4,349
2,858
1,879
1,067
542
270

62,494
13,063
4,663
1,918
2,745
8,400
57,831
40,361
17,393
8,992
8,401
13,172
7,217
5,955
9,796
4,967
4,829
9,070
7,205
4,320
2,885
.1,865
1,052
541
272

63,072
12,834
4,491
1,883
2,608
8,343
58,581
41,214
17,685
9,101
8,584
13,726
7,524
6,202
9,803
5,041
4,762
9,024
7,168
4,276
2,892
1,856
1,043
540
273

63,600
12,592
4,387
1,886
2,501
8,205
59,213
42,029
17,976
9,169
8,807
14,252
7,841
6,411
9,80T
5,113
4,688
8,979
7,122
4,247
2,875
1,857
1,046
536
275

77.8
76.3
62.9
52.6
72.9
86.9
79.4
94.1
95.0
94.3
95.6
95.4
95.7
95.1
91.2
93.0
89.4
45.1
71.2
81.1
60.1
18.7
27.7
18.7
8.2

77.8
76.6
63.2
53.0
73.1
86.9
79.3
94.1
94.9
94.2
95.6
95.4
95.6
95.2
91.1
92.9
89.4
44.5
70.7
80.8
59.6
18.3
27.1
18.4
8.0

77.8
76.9
63.3
53.4
73.2
86.9
79.1
94.1
94.8
94.1
95.5
95.4
95.5
95.2
91.0
92.8
89.3
43.8
70.2
80.5
59.0
17.9
26.5
18.1
7.9

77.7
76.9
63.4
53.7
73.4
86.9
79.0
94.0
94.7
94.0
95.4
95.4
95.4
95.2
91.0
92.7
89.2
43.1
69.7
80.1
58.5
17.5
25.9
17.9
7.7

Women, 16 and over ...............................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and ove r.............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ..............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ve r.............................................
55 to 6 4 ..............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

47,824
11,964
4,424
1,781
2,643
7,540
43,400
30,011
13,415
7,171
6,244
9,716
5,379
4,337
6,880
3,516
3,364
5,849
4,697
2,866
1,831
1,152
719
287
146

49,058
11,966
4,342
1,738
2,604
7,624
44,716
31,218
13,935
7,475
6,460
10,348
5,677
4,671
6,935
3,594
3,341
5,874
4,718
2,853
1,865
1,156
719
289
148

50,229
11,910
4,232
1,725
2,507
7,678
45,997
32,441
14,445
7,741
6,704
10,986
6,042
4,944
7,010
3,695
3,315
5,878
4,713
2,830
1,883
1,165
726
288
151

51,385
11,854
4,176
1,745
2,431
7,678
47,209
33,650
14,955
7,976
6,979
11,617
6,427
5,190
7,078
3,795
3,283
5,881
4,703
2,817
1,886
1,178
738
286
154

54.2
66.3
57.5
48.4
65.8
72.9
53.8
67.4
70.9
72.8
68.8
68.6
68.7
68.5
60.0
62.4
57.7
22.7
41.7
49.0
33.9
8.0
14.9
7.2
2.6

55.0
67.6
58.4
49.3
66.6
74.2
54.7
68.7
72.4
74.6
70.0
70.1
70.3
69.8
60.6
63.1
58.0
22.6
41.7
49.1
33.9
7.9
14.8
7.1
2.5

55.8
68.7
59.1
50.2
67.4
75.4
55.5
69.9
73.8
76.2
71.2
71.5
71.9
71.0
61.1
63.8
58.4
22.3
41.6
49.2
33.8
7.8
14.7
7.1
2.5

56.5
69.7
59.8
51.0
68.3
76.5
56.2
71.1
75.1
77.8
72.3
72.9
73.4
72.2
61.7
64.5
58.8
22.1
41.6
49.3
33.8
7.7
14.6
7.0
2.5

White
Total, 16 and o v e r...............................

96,131

97,625

98,995

100,316

65.7

66.1

66.5

66.8

Men, 16 and over .......................................

54,916

55,409

55,838

56,228

78.6

78.6

78.6

78.5

16
20
25
55




128

C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1982

1983

1984

1985

1982

1983

1984

1985

Middle growth path—Continued
16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o v e r...............................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ver................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

11,657
4,283
7,374
50,633
34,999
15,014
11,248
8,737
8,260
6,556
1,704

11,480
4,152
7,328
51,257
35,690
15,234
11,752
8,704
8,239
6,547
1,692

11,268
3,998
7,270
51,840
36,379
15,450
12,232
8,697
8,191
6,507
1,684

11,047
3,910
7,137
52,318
37,041
15,669
12,685
8,687
8,140
6,457
1,683

78.9
66.8
88.2
79.8
94.8
95.6
96.0
91.9
45.5
72.0
18.8

79.4
67.3
88.4
79.7
94.7
95.5
96.0
91.9
44.9
71.5
18.4

79.8
67.7
88.6
79.6
94.7
95.4
95.9
91.8
44.2
71.0
18.0

80.1
68.0
88.7
79.4
94.6
95.3
95.9
91.7
43.6
70.5
17.7

Women, 16 and over..................................

41,215

42,216

43,157

44,088

53.8

54.7

55.4

56.2

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ver............................................

10,402
3,914
6,488
37,301
25,627
11,299
8,359
5,969
5,186
4,171
1,015

10,391
3,834
6,557
38,382
26,627
11,713
8,907
6,007
5,198
4,180
1,018

10,331
3,728
6,603
39,429
27,636
12,123
9,450
6,063
5,190
4,166
1,024

10,271
3,675
6,596
40,413
28,635
12,535
9,983
6,117
5,182
4,148
1,034

68.9
61.1
74.6
53.2
66.9
70.3
68.3
59.8
22.4
41.5
7.7

70.3
62.2
76.0
54.0
68.2
71.8
69.8
60.4
22.2
41.4
7.6

71.6
63.1
77.4
54.8
69.5
73.3
71.2
61.0
21.9
41.4
7.5

72.8
63.9
78.8
55.6
70.8
74.7
72.7
61.6
21.7
41.4
7.5

Total, 16 and o v e r...............................

13,541

13,927

14,306

14,669

63.3

63.7

64.2

64.4

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

6,932

7,085

7,234

7,372

71.9

72.0

72.0

71.9

16 to 2 4 ............ .........................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,593
526
1,067
6,406
4,513
2,078
1,356
1,079
826
651
175

1,583
511
1,072
6,574
4,671
2,159
1,420
1,092
831
658
173

1,566
493
1,073
6,741
4,835
2,235
1,494
1,106
833
661
172

1,545
477
1,068
6,895
4,988
2,307
1,567
1,114
839
665
174

61.4
42.7
78.3
76.2
89.5
90.7
90.9
85.5
41.3
64.6
17.6

61.1
42.3
77.6
76.1
89.6
90.8
91.1
85.5
40.7
63.9
17.1

60.8
41.7
77.0
76.0
89.7
90.7
91.3
85.6
40.0
63.1
16.6

60.2
40.8
76.3
75.9
89.8
90.9
91.4
85.6
39.3
62.7
16.2

Women, 16 and over..................................

6,609

6,842

7,072

7,297

56.3

57.0

57.7

58.3

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ve r............................................

1,562
510
1,052
6,099
4,384
2,116
1,357
911
663
526
137

1,575
508
1,067
6,334
4,591
2,222
1,441
928
676
538
138

1,579
504
1,075
6,568
4,805
2,322
1,536
947
688
547
141

1,583
501
1,082
6,796
5,015
2,420
1,634
961
699
555
144

53.2
39.3
64.2
58.4
70.2
74.2
71.0
61.3
25.9
44.0
10.0

53.8
39.9
64.5
59.0
71.1
75.4
72.1
61.6
25.8
43.9
9.9

54.3
40.4
64.8
59.7
72.1
76.5
73.1
62.1
25.7
43.8
9.8

54.3
40.7
65.3
60.6
73.2
77.1
74.6
62.2
25.4
43.4
9.9

B la c k a n d o th e r




129

C -1 . C ivilian la b o r fo r c e an d la b o r fo r c e p a rtic ip a tio n ra te s b y a g e , s ex, a n d ra c e , 1982 to 2 0 0 0 — C o n tin u e d

(Numbers in thousands)
Labor force particpation rate

Civilian labor force
Sex, age, and race

Percent

Number
1986

1987

1989

1988

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Middle growth path—Continued

16
20
25
55

Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 116,690 118,376 119,846
to 2 4 ................................................... 24,091 23,824 23,442
and o ver............................................. 108,108 109,663 111,092
77,834 79,929 81,924
to 5 4 ..................................................
and o ver............................................. 14,765 14,623 14,480

121,201
23,011
112,533
83,875
14,315

122,375
22,607
113,965
85,616
14,152

66.8
73.6
67.3
82.8
30.9

67.1
73.8
67.5
83.3
30.4

67.4
74.3
67.8
83.8
29.9

67.7
74.8
68.0
84.2
29.4

67.9
75.3
68.2
84.6
29.0

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ver.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 49 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ve r.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................

64,136
12,318
4,375
1,932
2,443
7,943
59,761
42,915
18,230
9,246
8,984
14,780
8,243
6,537
9,905
5,238
4,667
8,903
7,049
4,196
2,853
1,854
1,046
533
275

64,678
12,102
4,426
1,989
2,437
7,676
60,252
43,781
18,404
9,217
9,187
15,276
8,205
7,071
10,101
5,423
4,678
8,795
6,940
4,133
2,807
1,855
1,052
528
275

65,131
11,830
4,426
1,931
2,495
7,404
60,705
44,614
18,503
9,156
9,347
15,646
8,341
7,305
10,465
5,741
4,724
8,687
6,839
4,064
2,775
1,848
1,048
524
276

65,542
11,542
4,365
1,797
2,568
7,177
61,177
45,433
18,537
9,079
9,458
16,133
8,517
7,616
10,763
5,967
4,796
8,567
6,728
3,995
2,733
1,839
1,038
525
276

65,880
11,282
4,216
1,733
2,483
7,066
61,664
46,147
18,453
8,925
9,528
16,672
8,734
7,938
11,022
6,156
4,866
8,451
6,625
3,922
2,703
1,826
1,019
531
276

77.6
76.8
63.4
54.0
73.7
86.8
78.8
94.0
94.6
93.9
95.3
95.3
95.4
95.3
90.9
92.6
89.2
42.4
69.2
79.8
57.9
17.2
25.4
17.6
75

77.4
76.5
63.5
54.2
73.9
86.7
78.7
93.9
94.5
93.7
95.3
95.3
95.3
95.3
90.9
92.5
89.1
41.7
68.8
79.5
57.4
16.8
24.8
17.3
74

77.3
76.5
64.0
54.3
74.2
86.6
78.5
93.9
94.4
93.6
95.2
95.3
95.2
95.3
90.9
92.4
89.1
41.0
68.3
79.2
56.9
16.5
24.2
17.1
73

77.3
76.7
64.6
54.4
74.3
86.5
78.4
93.8
94.3
93.5
95.2
95.2
95.1
95.4
90.8
92.3
89.1
40.3
67.9
78.9
56.4
16.2
23.7
16.8
7 -|

77.2
76.8
64.7
54.5
74.3
86.4
78.3
93.7
94.3
93.4
95.1
95.2
95.1
95.4
90.8
92.2
89.0
39.6
.67.5
78.7
55.9
15.8
23.2
16.6
70

Women, 16 and over ..............................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ve r.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ve r.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

52,554
11,773
4,207
1,807
2,400
7,566
48,347
34,919
15,440
8,211
7,229
12,252
6,888
5,364
7,227
3,929
3,298
5,862
4,674
2,787
1,887
1,188
748
285
155

53,698
11,722
4,287
1,874
2,413
7,435
49,411
36,148
15,850
8,351
7,499
12,858
6,993
5,865
7,440
4,106
3,334
5,828
4,624
2,753
1,871
1,204
762
284
158

54,715
11,612
4,328
1,839
2,489
7,284
50,387
37,310
16,180
8,447
7,733
13,359
7,228
6,131
7,771
4,381
3,390
5,793
4,579
2,722
1,857
1,214
771
283
160

55,659
11,469
4,303
1,734
2,569
7,166
51,356
38,442
16,431
8,506
7,925
13,953
7,492
6,461
8,058
4,593
3,465
5,748
4,527
2,688
1,839
1,221
775
285
161

56,495
11,325
4,194
1,685
2,509
7,131
52,301
39,469
16,568
8,493
8,075
14,581
7,779
6,802
8,320
4,780
3,540
5,701
4,476
2,650
1,826
1,225
772
290
163

57.2
70.5
60.5
51.9
69.2
77.7
56.9
72.3
76.4
79.4
73.3
74.2
74.9
73.4
62.2
65.1
59.1
21.8
41.6
49.4
33.8
7.6
14.5
6.9
2.4

57.9
71.2
61.2
52.7
69.9
78.7
57.6
73.3
77.6
80.9
74.3
75.4
76.3
74.5
62.8
65.8
59.5
21.6
41.7
49.5
33.8
7.6
14.4
6.8
2.4

58.5
72.1
62.2
53.4
70.8
79.7
58.2
74.2
78.8
82.2
75.3
76.6
77.5
75.5
63.4
66.4
59.8
21.3
41.7
49.5
33.8
7.5
14.3
6.7
2.4

59.1
73.1
63.3
54.0
71.5
80.6
58.7
75.1
79.8
83.5
76.2
77.7
78.7
76.5
63.8
67.0
60.1
21.0
41.7
49.6
33.8
7.4
14.2
6.7
2.4

59.6
73.9
63.9
54.7
72.1
81.4
59.2
75.9
80.7
84.6
77.0
78.6
79.8
77.3
64.3
67.6
60.4
20.7
41.7
49.7
33.8
7.3
14.1
6.6
2.4

101,646 102,949 104,054

105,039

105,867

67.2

67.5

67.8

68.1

68.3

57,022

57,599

57,800

78.4

78.3

78.2

78.2

78.1

White
Total, 16 and o v e r...............................
Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................




56,625

57,334

130

C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Middle growth path—Continued
16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 54 .................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

10,800
3,908
6,892
52,717
37,762
15,857
13,137
8,768
8,063
6,382
1,681

10,605
3,955
6,650
53,067
38,460
15,964
13,561
8,935
7,957
6,274
1,683

10,356
3,951
6,405
53,383
39,132
16,007
13,857
9,268
7,846
6,170
1,676

10,085
3,887
6,198
53,712
39,786
15,994
14,261
9,531
7,728
6,059
1,669

9,843
3,746
6,097
54,054
40,342
15,876
14,709
9,757
7,615
5,958
1,657

80.1
68.3
88.8
79.3
94.6
95.2
95.8
91.7
42.9
70.1
17.3

80.1
68.6
88.9
79.1
94.5
95.1
95.8
91.6
42.1
69.7
17.0

80.3
69.4
88.9
79.0
94.4
95.0
95.8
91.6
41.4
69.3
16.7

80.7
70.2
89.0
78.8
94.3
94.9
95.7
91.5
40.7
68.9
16.4

81.0
70.6
89.0
78.7
94.3
94.8
95.7
91.5
40.0
68.5
16.0

Women, 16 and over..................................

45,021

45,927

46,720

47,440

48,067

56.9

57.6

58.2

58.8

59.3

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 19 .................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 54 .................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

10,188
3,702
6,486
41,319
29,680
12,926
10,517
6,237
5,153
4,111
1,042

10,132
3,767
6,365
42,160
30,686
13,245
11,026
6,415
5,109
4,055
1,054

10,020
3,794
6,226
42,926
31,636
13,494
11,431
6,711
5,064
4,003
1,061

9,874
3,760
6,114
43,680
32,556
13,675
11,919
6,962
5,010
3,944
1,066

9,731
3,652
6,079
44,415
33,379
13,757
12,438
7,184
4,957
3,889
1,068

73.8
64.7
80.1
56.3
72.0
76.0
74.0
62.2
21.4
41.4
7.4

74.7
65.6
81.4
57.0
73.0
77.3
75.3
62.7
21.1
41.4
7.3

75.8
66.8
82.6
57.6
74.0
78.4
76.5
63.3
20.9
41.4
7.3

76.9
68.1
83.6
58.1
74.9
79.4
77.6
63.8
20.6
41.4
7.2

78.0
69.0
84.6
58.6
75.7
80.4
78.6
64.3
20.3
41.4
7.1

Total, 16 and o v e r...............................

15,044

15,427

15,792

16,162

16,508

64.7

65.0

65.2

65.5

65.8

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

7,511

7,656

7,797

7,943

8,080

71.8

71.6

71.5

71.5

71.5

16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

1,518
467
1,051
7,044
5,153
2,373
1,643
1,137
840
667
173

1,497
471
1,026
7,185
5,321
2,440
1,715
1,166
838
666
172

1,474
475
999
7,322
5,482
2,496
1,789
1,197
841
669
172

1,457
478
979
7,465
5,647
2,543
1,872
1,232
839
669
170

1,439
470
969
7,610
5,805
2,577
1,963
1,265
836
667
169

59.3
39.9
75.7
75.8
89.9
90.9
91.5
85.7
38.7
62.0
15.8

58.2
39.2
74.9
75.7
90.0
91.0
91.6
85.7
37.9
61.3
15.3

57.4
38.9
74.3
75.6
90.0
91.0
91.7
85.7
37.3
60.8
14.9

57.0
39.0
73.6
75.5
90.1
91.1
91.8
85.9
36.7
60.2
14.4

56.6
38.7
73.1
75.4
90.2
91.2
91.9
85.9
35.9
59.6
14.0

Women, 16 and over..................................

7,533

7,771

7,995

8,219

8,428

59.0

59.6

60.1

60.6

61.1

16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 54 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ve r............................................

1,585
505
1,080
7,028
5,239
2,514
1,735
990
709
563
146

1,590
520
1,070
7,251
5,462
2,605
1,832
10,250
719
569
150

1,592
534
1,058
7,461
5,674
2,686
1,928
1,060
729
576
153

1,595
543
1,052
7,676
5,886
2,756
2,034
1,096
738
583
155

1,594
542
1,052
7,886
6,090
2,811
2,143
1,136
744
587
157

55.0
40.9
65.6
60.9
74.0
78.7
75.3
62.9
25.2
43.8
9.5

55.1
41.2
65.9
61.5
74.9
79.7
76.2
63.3
25.1
43.9
9.5

55.3
41.8
66.2
62.0
75.7
80.6
77.1
63.8
24.8
43.8
9.4

55.7
42.4
66.5
62.5
76.4
81.5
77.8
64.1
24.6
43.8
9.3

56.1
42.9
66.8
62.9
77.0
82.3
78.5
64.5
24.4
43.8
9.2

B la c k a n d o th e r




131

C=1. Civilian labor fore® and labor fore© participation rates by ag©,

s ®k ,

and race, WB2 to 2000—
-Continued

(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Middle growth path—Continued

16
20
25
55

Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 123,532 124,483 125,387
to 24 ..................................................
22,380 22,135 21,983
and o ver............................................. 115,430 116,504 117,338
87,113 88,389 89,477
to 5 4 ..................................................
and over ............................................. 14,039 13,959 13,927

126,423
21,899
118,210
90,603
13,921

127,542
21,846
119,139
91,779
13,917

68.1
75.7
68.4
84.9
28.6

68.2
75.9
68.5
85.1
28.3

68.3
76.1
68.6
85.2
28.1

68.4
76.4
68.7
85.3
27.9

68.6
76.5
68.8
85.5
27.8

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ve r.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ve r.............................................
55 to 6 4 ..............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

66,244
11,119
4,041
1,746
2,295
7,078
62,203
46,762
18,262
8,651
9,611
17,245
8,904
8,341
11,255
6,268
4,987
8,363
6,553
3,894
2,659
1,810
1,000
535
275

66,551
10,951
3,963
1,762
2,201
6,988
62,588
47,306
17,958
8,372
9,586
17,413
9,099
8,314
11,935
6,769
5,166
8,294
6,504
3,895
2,609
1,790
973
543
274

66,875
10,839
3,988
1,777
2,211
6,851
62,887
47,780
17,616
8,087
9,529
17,712
9,257
8,455
12,452
6,983
5,469
8,256
6,482
3,925
2,557
1,774
953
547
274

67,223
10,731
4,059
1,829
2,230
6,672
63,164
48,259
17,302
7,848
9,454
18,005
9,365
8,640
12,952
7,266
5,686
8,233
6,482
3,975
2,507
1,751
930
547
274

67,611
10,641
4,144
1,901
2,243
6,497
63,467
48,758
17,029
7,727
9,302
18,297
9,434
8,863
13,432
7,563
5,869
8,212
6,479
4,025
2,454
1,733
913
543
277

77.2
76.8
64.4
54.8
74.2
86.3
78.2
93.7
94.2
93.3
95.0
95.2
95.0
95.4
90.7
92.2
89.0
39.0
67.1
78.4
55.5
15.5
22.7
16.4
6.8

77.1
76.7
64.3
55.1
74.2
86.2
78.1
93.6
94.1
93.2
95.0
95.2
95.0
95.4
90.7
92.1
88.9
38.5
66.9
78.2
55.0
15.2
22.3
16.1
6.7

77.0
76.6
64.5
55.3
74.4
86.1
78.0
93.5
94.1
93.1
94.9
95.1
94.9
95.4
90.7
92.1
88.9
38.2
66.7
78.0
54.6
14.9
21.9
16.0
6.6

76.9
76.4
64.7
55.6
74.7
85.9
77.8
93.5
94.0
93.0
94.9
95.1
94.8
95.4
90.6
92.0
88.9
37.9
66.6
77.8
54.3
14.6
21.5
15.8
6.5

76.8
76.1
64.7
55.8
74.9
85.7
77.8
93.4
94.0
92.9
94.9
95.1
94.8
95.5
90.6
91.9
88.9
37.6
66.5
77.6
53.9
14.3
21.1
15.6
6.4

Women, 16 and over ...............................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and over .............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ve r.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

57,288
11,261
4,061
1,709
2,352
7,200
53,227
40,351
16,566
8,346
8,220
15,239
8,029
7,210
8,546
4,903
3,643
5,676
4,452
2,650
1,802
1,224
767
292
165

57,932
11,184
4,016
1,739
2,277
7,168
53,916
41,083
16,441
8,174
8,267
15,534
8,291
7,243
9,108
5,321
3,787
5,665
4,445
2,668
1,777
1,220
757
297
166

58,512
11,144
4,061
1,763
2,298
7,083
54,451
41,697
16,244
7,972
8,272
15,909
8,502
7,407
9,544
5,525
4,019
5,671
4,455
2,701
1,754
1,216
749
300
167

59,200
11,168
4,154
1,826
2,328
7,014
55,046
42,344
16,085
7,833
8,252
16,281
8,675
7,606
9,978
5,785
4,193
5,688
4,480
2,750
1,730
1,208
738
301
169

59,931
11,205
4,259
1,908
2,351
6,946
55,672
43,021
15,971
7,792
8,179
16,651
8,812
7,839
10,399
6,059
4,340
5,705
4,502
2,799
1,703
1,203
731
300
172

60.0
74.6
64.2
55.4
72.6
82.1
59.7
76.5
81.4
85.6
77.6
79.4
80.7
78.0
64.7
68.1
60.7
20.5
41.8
49.8
33.8
7.2
14.0
6.5
2.3

60.3
75.2
64.7
56.1
73.2
82.6
60.0
76.9
82.1
86.4
78.2
80.1
81.5
78.6
65.2
68.6
61.0
20.4
41.9
49.8
33.8
7.1
14.0
6.5
2.3

60.5
75.6
65.4
56.8
73.9
83.0
60.2
77.3
82.5
87.0
78.7
80.6
82.0
79.1
65.6
69.1
61.2
20.3
42.0
49.9
33.8
7.0
13.9
6.4
2.3

60.8
76.3
65.9
57.4
74.5
84.2
60.5
77.6
83.1
87.8
79.1
81.2
82.6
79.6
65.9
69.5
61.5
20.2
42.2
50.0
33.8
6.9
13.8
6.4
2.3

61.2
77.0
66.3
58.0
75.1
85.3
60.8
78.0
83.7
88.6
79.6
81.7
83.2
80.0
66.2
69.9
61.7
20.2
42.3
50.0
33.8
6.8
13.8
6.4
2.3

106,679 107,304 107,907

108,561

109,292

68.5

68.6

68.7

68.7

68.8

58,614

58,871

78.1

78.0

77.9

77.8

77.7

White
Total, 16 and o v e r...............................
Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................




58,023

58,197

58,392

132

C -1. C ivilian la b o r fo r c e a n d la b o r fo rc e p artic ip a tio n ra te s b y a g e , s ex, a n d ra c e , 1982 to 2 0 0 0 — C o n tin u e d

(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1994

1993

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Middle growth path—Continued
16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

9,688
3,588
6,100
54,435
40,806
15,666
15,182
9,958
7,529
5,887
1,642

9,529
3,524
6,005
54,673
41,208
15,360
15,268
10,580
7,460
5,836
1,624

9,421
3,555
5,866
54,837
41,551
15,022
15,492
11,037
7,420
5,812
1,608

9,323
3,628
5,695
54,986
41,896
14,712
15,713
11,471
7,395
5,808
1,587

9,242
3,715
5,527
55,156
42,256
14,437
15,937
11,882
7,373
5,804
1,569

81.2
70.6
89.1
78.6
94.2
94.7
95.7
91.4
39.4
68.2
15.7

81.2
70.6
89.1
78.5
94.1
94.6
95.6
91.4
39.0
68.0
15.4

81.3
71.0
89.1
78.4
94.0
94.6
95.6
91.3
38.6
67.9
15.1

81.1
71.2
89.1
78.3
94.0
94.5
95.6
91.2
38.4
67.8
14.8

80.9
71.3
89.0
78.2
93.9
94.4
95.5
91.2
38.1
67.8
14.5

Women, 16 and over..................................

48,656

49,107

49,515

49,947

50,421

59.7

60.0

60.3

60.5

60.7

16 to 24-.....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

9,660
3,527
6,133
45,129
34,070
13,718
12,978
7,374
4,926
3,861
1,065

9,573
3,485
6,088
45,622
34,629
13,578
13,177
7,874
4,905
3,846
1,059

9,527
3,531
5,996
45,984
35,086
13,373
13,465
8,248
4,902
3,848
1,054

9,484
3,617
5,867
46,330
35,554
13,188
13,753
8,613
4,909
3,864
1,045

9,453
3,714
5,739
46,707
36,052
13,044
14,046
8,962
4,916
3,879
1,037

78.8
69.4
85.4
59.1
76.3
81.1
79.5
64.7
20.1
41.5
7.0

79.4
69.9
86.1
59.4
76.8
81.7
80.2
65.2
19.9
41.6
6.9

79.9
70.6
86.7
59.6
77.1
82.2
80.8
65.6
19.8
41.7
6.8

80.3
71.2
87.2
59.8
77.4
82.7
81.3
65.9
19.8
41.9
6.7

80.6
71.6
87.8
60.0
77.8
83.2
81.9
66.3
19.7
42.1
6.6

Total, 16 and o v e r...............................

16,853

17,179

17,480

17,862

18,250

66.0

66.2

66.3

66.6

67.0

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

8,221

8,354

8,483

8,609

8,740

71.5

71.5

71.5

71.4

71.3

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,431
453
978
7,768
5,956
2,596
2,063
1,297
834
666
168

1,422
439
983
7,915
6,098
2,598
2,145
1,355
834
668
166

1,418
433
985
8,050
6,229
2,594
2,220
1,415
836
670
166

1,408
431
977
8,178
6,363
2,590
2,292
1,481
838
674
164

1,399
429
970
8,311
6,502
2,592
2,360
1,550
839
675
164

56.3
38.0
72.6
75.4
90.3
91.2
92.0
86.0
35.3
59.0
13.6

56.0
37.3
72.1
75.3
90.3
91.4
92.1
85.9
34.8
58.6
13.2

55.7
36.9
71.6
75.2
90.4
91.4
92.1
86.0
34.4
58.1
13.0

55.2
36.6
71.2
75.1
90.4
91.5
92.2
86.0
33.9
57.7
12.6

54.5
35.9
70.8
75.1
90.5
91.5
92.3
86.1
33.5
57.4
12.3

Women, 16 and over..................................

8,632

8,825

8,997

9,253

9,510

61.5

61.8

62.0

62.8

63.5

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ver................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ver................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,601
534
1,067
8,098
6,281
2,848
2,261
1,172
750
591
159

1,611
531
1,080
8,294
6,454
2,863
2,357
1,234
760
599
161

1,617
530
1,087
8,467
6,611
2,871
2,444
1,296
769
607
162

1,684
537
1,147
8,716
6,790
2,897
2,528
1,365
779
616
163

1,752
545
1,207
8,965
6,969
2,927
2,605
1,437
789
623
166

56.5
43.1
66.9
63.3
77.5
83.0
79.1
64.8
24.1
43.7
9.1

56.9
43.4
67.2
63.5
77.9
83.6
79.6
65.1
24.0
43.8
9.0

57.1
43.6
67.3
63.7
78.2
84.0
80.0
65.4
23.9
43.7
8.8

59.5
43.9
71.4
64.5
78.7
85.0
80.4
65.7
23.7
43.8
8.7

61.8
44.1
75.4
65.2
79.2
86.0
80.8
66.0
23.6
43.9
8.6

Black and other




133

0-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Sex, age, and race
1996

1997

Percent
1999

1998

2000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Middle growth path—Continued

16
20
25
55

Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 128,834 130,031 131,345
21,823 22,176 22,786
to 2 4 ..................................................
and over............................................. 120,097 120,896 121,798
92,927 93,626 93,914
to 5 4 ..................................................
and over............................................. 14,084 14,229 14,645

132,741
23,536
122,820
94,240
14,965

134,155
24,276
123,946
94,634
15,245

68.7
76.6
68.9
85.7
27.8

68.8
76.8
69.0
85.8
27.9

68.9
77.2
69.1
85.9
28.2

69.0
77.6
69.2
86.1
28.5

69.1
78.1
69.3
86.2
28.7

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ver.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and over.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and o v e r....................................

68,125
10,567
4,301
1,992
2,309
6,266
63,824
49,234
16,766
7,739
9,027
18,554
9,514
9,040
13,914
7,939
5,975
8,324
6,617
4,184
2,433
1,707
891
538
278

68,544
10,687
4,492
2,089
2,403
6,195
64,052
49,487
16,400
7,651
8,749
18,727
9,486
9,241
14,360
7,907
6,453
8,370
6,688
4,260
2,428
1,682
870
530
282

69,064
10,938
4,691
2,168
2,523
6,247
64,373
49,518
15,988
7,522
8,466
18,834
9,431
9,403
14,696
8,035
6,661
8,608
6,952
4,508
2,444
1,656
848
525
283

69,629
11,257
4,873
2,222
2,651
6,384
64,756
49,587
15,574
7,343
8,231
18,873
9,356
9,517
15,140
8,205
6,935
8,785
7,154
4,681
2,473
1,631
828
518
285

70,214
11,569
5,011
2,256
2,755
6,558
65,203
49,705
15,279
7,164
8,115
18,797
9,206
9,591
15,629
8,410
7,219
8,940
7,328
4,824
2,504
1,612
811
514
287

76.7
75.7
64.9
56.1
75.1
85.6
77.7
93.4
93.9
92.9
94.8
95.1
94.8
95.5
90.5
91.9
88.8
37.6
66.5
77.2
53.6
14.0
20.8
15.4
6.3

76.6
75.5
65.1
56.3
75.3
85.4
77.6
93.3
93.8
92.8
94.8
95.1
94.7
95.5
90.4
91.8
88.8
37.6
66.5
77.3
53.4
13.8
20.5
15.3
6.3

76.5
75.4
65.3
56.4
75.5
85.4
77.5
93.2
93.8
92.7
94.8
95.1
94.7
95.5
90.4
91.7
88.8
38.0
66.6
77.2
53.2
13.6
20.2
15.2
6.2

76.5
75.5
65.6
56.6
75.8
85.4
77.4
93.2
93.7
92.6
94.7
95.1
94.6
95.5
90.4
91.7
88.8
38.3
66.6
77.1
53.0
13.4
20.0
15.1
6.2

76.4
75.6
65.8
56.6
75.9
85.4
77.4
93.1
93.7
92.6
94.7
95.1
94.6
95.5
90.3
91.7
88.8
38.5
66.6
77.0
52.8
13.2
19.9
15.0
6.1

Women, 16 and over ...............................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ver.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ..............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ver.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ................................ .

60,709
11,256
4,436
2,008
2,428
6,820
56,273
43,693
15,872
7,875
7,997
16,997
8,952
8,045
10,824
6,395
4,429
5,760
4,570
2,870
1,700
1,190
719
298
173

61,487
11,489
4,643
2,115
2,528
6,846
56,844
44,139
15,677
7,869
7,808
17,276
9,001
8,275
11,186
6,405
4,781
5,859
4,681
2,972
1,709
1,178
707
294
177

62,281
11,848
4,856
2,203
2,653
6,992
57,425
44,396
15,428
7,819
7,609
17,490
9,017
8,473
11,478
6,536
4,942
6,037
4,872
3,144
1,728
1,165
696
291
178

63,112
12,279
5,048
2,263
2,785
7,231
58,064
44,653
15,168
7,714
7,454
17,639
9,007
8,632
11,846
6,692
5,154
6,180
5,026
3,269
1,757
1,154
686
288
180

63,941
12,707
5,198
2,304
2,894
7,509
58,743
44,929
14,992
7,604
7,388
17,693
8,938
8,755
12,244
6,872
5,372
6,305
5,160
3,374
1,786
1,145
675
287
183

61.5
77.5
66.8
58.5
75.7
86.5
61.1
78.4
84.5
89.5
80.0
82.2
83.8
80.5
66.6
70.3
61.9
20.2
42.4
50.1
33.8
6.7
13.7
6.3
2.2

61.8
78.1
67.3
59.0
76.1
87.8
61.4
78.7
85.2
90.4
80.5
82.7
84.4
81.0
66.7
70.6
62.0
20.4
42.6
50.1
33.7
6.6
13.7
6.3
2.2

62.0
78.9
67.7
59.4
76.6
89.1
61.6
79.1
85.8
91.2
80.9
83.2
85.0
81.4
66.9
70.9
62.2
20.7
42.8
50.1
33.7
6.5
13.6
6.2
2.2

62.3
79.7
68.2
59.7
77.0
90.3
61.9
79.3
86.5
92.1
81.4
83.7
85.6
81.9
67.0
71.1
62.3
20.9
42.9
50.2
33.7
6.5
13.6
6.2
2.2

62.6
80.5
68.5
59.9
77.3
91.5
62.1
79.6
87.1
93.0
81.9
84.2
86.2
82.4
67.1
71.3
62.4
21.1
43.0
50.2
33.7
6.4
13.6
6.3
2.2

110,125 110,995 111,915

112,908

113,914

68.9

69.0

69.1

69.2

69.3

60,333

60,771

77.6

77.5

77.5

77.4

77.4

White
Total, 16 and o v e r...............................
Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................




59,184

59,533

59,912

134

C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1996

1997

1999

1998

2000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Middle growth path—Continued
16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

9,185
3,865
5,320
55,319
42,590
14,165
16,132
12,293
7,409
5,865
1,544

9,307
4,045
5,262
55,488
42,721
13,803
16,246
12,672
7,505
5,985
1,520

9,546
4,231
5,315
55,681
42,641
13,400
16,300
12,941
7,725
6,231
1,494

9,841
4,401
5,440
55,932
42,607
13,002
16,297
13,308
7,885
6,415
1,470

10,129
4,530
5,599
56,241
42,620
12,713
16,193
13,714
8,022
6,571
1,451

80.7
71.5
89.0
78.1
93.8
94.4
95.5
91.2
38.1
67.8
14.3

80.5
71.7
88.9
78.0
93.8
94.3
95.5
91.0
38.2
67.8
14.0

80.5
72.0
88.9
77.9
93.7
94.2
95.5
91.0
38.7
67.9
13.8

80.6
72.3
88.9
77.8
93.6
94.2
95.5
91.0
39.0
68.0
13.6

80.7
72.5
88.9
77.8
93.6
94.2
95.5
90.9
39.2
68.0
13.5

Women, 16 and over..................................

50,941

51,462

52,003

52,575

53,143

61.0

61.2

61.4

61.7

61.9

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over...................................... .....

9,449
3,875
5,574
47,066
36,538
12,907
14,319
9,312
4,954
3,931
1,023

9,610
4,062
5,548
47,400
36,819
12,685
14,528
9,606
5,033
4,024
1,009

9,886
4,255
5,631
47,748
36,927
12,417
14,679
9,831
5,190
4,195
995

10,220
4,430
5,790
48,145
37,043
12,143
14,775
10,125
5,312
4,329
983

10,548
4,567
5,981
48,576
37,183
11,947
14,789
10,447
5,412
4,440
972

80.9
72.1
88.3
60.2
78.2
83.9
82.4
66.6
19.7
42.2
6.5

81.1
72.5
88.9
60.4
78.5
84.5
82.9
66.7
19.9
42.4
6.4

81.5
73.0
89.4
60.6
78.8
85.1
83.5
66.9
20.2
42.6
6.3

82.0
73.4
90.0
60.8
79.0
85.6
84.0
67.0
20.5
42.7
6.2

82.4
73.8
90.5
61.0
79.3
86.2
84.6
67.1
20.7
42.8
6.2

Total, 16 and o v e r...............................

18,709

19,036

19,430

19,833

20,241

67.3

67.6

67.8

68.1

68.3

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

8,941

9,011

9,152

9,296

9,443

71.1

71.0

70.9

70.8

70.7

16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ver............................................

1,382
436
946
8,505
6,644
2,601
2,422
1,621
915
752
163

1,380
447
933
8,564
6,766
2,597
2,481
1,688
865
703
162

1,392
460
932
8,692
6,877
2,588
2,534
1,755
883
721
162

1,416
472
944
8,824
6,980
2,572
2,576
1,832
900
739
161

1,440
481
959
8,962
7,085
2,566
2,604
1,915
918
757
161

53.8
35.6
70.3
75.0
90.4
91.5
92.4
86.1
34.5
57.9
12.0

53.1
35.4
69.9
75.0
90.4
91.5
92.4
86.2
33.2
57.1
11.8

52.7
35.3
69.7
74.9
90.4
91.5
92.5
86.2
33.2
57.0
11.6

52.6
35.3
69.5
74.8
90.4
91.5
92.6
86.2
33.2
56.9
11.4

52.5
35.3
69.4
74.7
90.4
91.5
92.6
86.1
33.1
56.8
11.2

Women, 16 and over..................................

9,768

10,025

10,278

10,537

10,798

64.1

64.7

65.3

65.8

66.4

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ver................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,807
561
1,246
9,207
7,155
2,965
2,678
1,512
806
639
167

1,879
581
1,298
9,444
7,320
2,992
2,748
1,580
826
657
169

1,962
601
1,361
9,677
7,469
3,011
2,811
1,647
847
677
170

2,059
618
1,441
9,919
7,610
3,025
2,864
1,721
868
697
171

2,159
631
1,528
10,167
7,746
3,045
2,904
1,797
893
720
173

63.8
44.3
79.4
65.9
79.7
87.1
81.2
66.3
23.6
43.9
8.5

65.7
44.6
83.5
66.6
80.1
88.1
81.5
66.5
23.7
44.0
8.5

67.8
44.8
87.6
67.2
80.5
89.2
81.9
66.6
23.7
44.1
8.4

69.9
45.0
91.6
67.8
80.8
90.2
82.3
66.7
23.8
44.2
8.3

72.1
45.1
95.7
68.4
81.2
91.2
82.7
66.7
23.9
44.3
8.2

B la c k a n d o th e r




135

<S Civilian 8ab®r tore® amdl Bab®r tore® par£0©DpsiSl©ini rates by ag@, sex, arad raee, 1082 tt@ 2000
=1„
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1982

1983

1984

1985

1982

1983

1984

1985

High growth path

Total, 16 and o v e r.............................
to 2 4 ...................................................
and over.............................................
to 5 4 ..................................................
and o ve r................. ...........................

110,926
25,505
101,583
70,187
15,234

113,544
25,435
104,394
72,753
15,356

116,090
25,274
107,186
75,383
15,433

118,252
25,108
109,472
77,636
15,508

66.1
72.0
66.6
81.1
33.2

67.0
73.2
67.5
82.3
33.1

67.8
74.3
68.3
83.5
32.9

68.4
75.2
68.9
84.4
32.7

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 .......................................... .
20 and over.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ver.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and o v e r....................................

62,435
13,383
4,876
2,021
2,855
8,507
57,559
39,726
17,217
8,902
8,315
12,651
7,030
5,621
9,858
4,944
4,914
9,326
7,339
4,405
2,934
1,987
1,139
562
286

63,288
13,244
4,752
1,964
2,788
8,492
58,536
40,649
17,562
9,083
8,479
13,237
7,274
5,963
9,850
4,997
4,853
9,395
7,384
4,394
2,990
2,011
1,147
570
294

64,079
13,065
4,603
1,941
2,662
8,462
59,476
41,577
17,900
9,217
8,683
13,807
7,596
6,211
9,870
5,079
4,791
9,437
7,394
4,368
3,026
2,043
1,165
577
301

64,825
12,873
4,521
1,957
2,564
8,352
60,304
42,473
18,239
9,310
8,929
14,353
7,932
6,421
9,881
5,160
4,721
9,479
7,393
4,357
3,036
2,086
1,194
582
310

78.5
77.1
63.8
53.5
73.7
87.5
80.1
94.6
95.6
95.0
96.3
95.8
96.2
95.2
91.6
93.4
89.8
46.3
72.5
82.1
61.7
19.8
29.6
19.4
8.7

78.8
77.7
64.4
54.3
74.2
87.8
80.2
94.8
95.8
95.2
96.5
95.9
96.4
95.3
91.6
93.4
89.8
46.1
72.5
82.2
61.7
19.7
29.6
19.4
8.7

O
79.0
78.3
64.9
55.0
74.8
88.1
80.4
94.9
95.9
95.3
96.6
95.9
96.5
95.3
91.7
93.5
89.8
45.8
72.4
82.2
61.7
19.7
29.6
19.4
8.7

79.2
78.7
65.3
55.7
75.3
88.4
80.4
95.0
96.1
95.4
96.7
96.0
96.6
95.4
91.7
93.5
89.9
45.5
72.4
82.2
61.7
19.7
29.6
19.4
8.7

Women, 16 and o v e r...............................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ve r............................................
25 to 5 4 .................. ................................
25 to 3 4 ................................... ...........
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ..............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ver.............................................
55 to 6 4 ..............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ............................... ...........
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and o v e r....................................

48,491
12,122
4,467
1,800
2,667
7,655
44,024
30,461
13,654
7,295
6,359
9,879
5,459
4,420
6,928
3,549
3,379
5,908
4,747
2,871
1,876
1,161
717
298
146

50,256
12,191
4,398
1,762
2,636
7,793
45,858
32,104
14,468
7,727
6,741
10,630
5,819
4,811
7,006
3,642
3,364
5,961
4,788
2,860
1,928
1,173
722
302
149

52,011
12,209
4,301
1,755
2,546
7,908
47,710
33,806
15,296
8,132
7,164
11,405
6,256
5,149
7,105
3,760
3,345
5,996
4,803
2,839
1,964
1,193
734
305
154

53,427
12,235
4,259
1,782
2,477
7,976
49,168
35,163
15,870
8,374
7,496
12,094
6,679
5,415
7,199
3,878
3,321
6,029
4,812
2,829
1,983
1,217
752
306
159

54.9
67.2
58.0
48.9
66.4
74.0
54.6
68.4
72.2
74.1
70.1
69.8
69.8
69.8
60.4
63.0
57.9
23.0
42.2
49.0
34.7
8.0
14.9
7.5
2.6

56.3
68.8
59.2
49.9
67.5
75.8
56.1
70.6
75.1
77.1
73.0
72.0
72.1
71.9
61.2
64.0
58.4
22.9
42.3
49.2
35.0
8.0
14.9
7.5
2.6

57.7
70.4
60.1
51.0
68.5
77.6
57.5
72.8
78.1
80.1
76.0
74.2
74.4
74.0
62.0
64.9
58.9
22.8
42.4
49.3
35.3
7.9
14.9
7.5
2.6

58.7
71.9
61.0
52.1
69.6
79.5
58.5
74.3
79.7
81.7
77.6
75.9
76.3
75.4
62.7
65.9
59.4
22.6
42.6
49.5
35.6
7.9
14.9
7.4
2.6

Whit©
Total, 16 and o v e r...............................

96,985

99,039

101,015

102,667

66.2

67.1

67.8

68.4

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

55,288

55,915

56,483

57,014

79.1

79.3

79.5

79.6

16
20
25
55




136

C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1982

1983

1984

1985

1982

1983

1984

1985

High growth path—Continued
16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ver............................................

11,669
4,286
7,383
51,002
35,161
15,111
11,283
8,767
8,458
6,662
1,796

11,501
4,157
7,344
51,758
35,905
15,364
11,800
8,741
8,509
6,691
1,818

11,300
4,006
7,294
52,477
36,651
15,615
12,293
8,743
8,532
6,687
1,845

11,090
3,920
7,170
53,094
37,370
15,870
12,759
8,741
8,554
6,673
1,881

79.0
66.8
88.3
80.4
95.2
96.2
96.3
92.2
46.6
73.1
19.9

79.6
67.4
88.6
80.5
95.3
96.3
96.4
92.2
46.4
73.0
19.8

80.1
67.8
88.9
80.5
95.4
96.4
96.4
92.3
46.1
72.9
19.7

80.4
68.2
89.1
80.6
95.5
96.5
96.4
92.3
45.8
72.9
19.7

Women, 16 and over..................................

41,697

43,124

44,532

45,653

54.5

55.8

57.2

58.2

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and o ver................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

10,493
3,930
6,563
37,767
25,966
11,481
8,479
6,006
5,238
4,213
1,025

10,515
3,853
6,662
39,271
27,335
12,147
9,126
6,062
5,274
4,239
1,035

10,494
3,751
6,743
40,781
28,745
12,826
9,782
6,137
5,293
4,241
1,052

10,472
3,702
6,770
41,951
29,872
13,297
10,364
6,211
5,309
4,239
1,070

69.5
61.4
75.4
53.8
67.8
71.5
69.2
60.2
22.6
41.9
7.8

71.1
62.5
77.2
55.3
70.1
74.5
71.5
61.0
22.5
42.0
7.8

72.7
63.5
79.1
56.7
72.3
77.5
73.7
61.7
22.4
42.1
7.7

74.2
64.4
80.9
57.7
73.8
79.2
75.4
62.5
22.2
42.3
7.7

Total, 16 and o v e r................................

13,941

14,505

15,075

15,585

65.2

66.4

67.6

68.5

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

7,147

7,373

7,596

7,811

74.1

74.9

75.6

76.2

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ve r............................................

1,714
590
1,124
6,557
4,565
2,106
1,368
1,091
868
677
191

1,743
595
1,148
6,778
4,744
2,198
1,437
1,109
886
693
193

1,765
597
1,168
6,999
4,926
2,285
1,514
1,127
905
707
198

1,783
601
1,182
7,210
5,103
2,369
1,594
1,140
925
720
205

66.1
47.9
82.5
78.0
90.5
91.9
91.8
86.5
43.4
67.2
19.2

67.3
49.2
83.1
78.5
91.0
92.4
92.2
86.8
43.4
67.3
19.1

68.5
50.5
83.8
78.9
91.4
92.8
92.5
87.2
43.5
67.5
19.1

69.4
51.4
84.5
79.3
91.8
93.3
92.9
87.6
43.4
67.9
19.1

Women, 16 and over..................................

6,794

7,132

7,479

7,774

57.8

59.4

61.0

62.2

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,629
537
1,092
6,257
4,495
2,173
1,400
922
670
534
136

1,676
545
1,131
6,587
4,769
2,321
1,504
944
687
549
138

1,715
550
1,165
6,929
5,061
2,470
1,623
968
703
562
141

1,763
557
1,206
7,217
5,291
2,573
1,730
988
720
573
147

55.5
41.4
66.6
59.9
71.9
76.2
73.3
62.0
26.2
44.6
10.0

57.3
42.8
68.4
61.4
73.9
78.7
75.2
62.7
26.2
44.8
9.9

59.0
44.0
70.3
63.0
76.0
81.4
77.3
63.4
26.2
45.0
9.8

60.9
45.1
72.7
64.0
77.1
82.5
78.6
64.1
26.2
45.3
9.9

Black and other




137

C -1 . C ivilian la b o r fo rc e an d la b o r fo r c e p a rtic ip a tio n ra te s b y a g e , s ex, a n d ra c e , 198 2 to 2 0 0 0 — C o n tin u e d

(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

High growth path—Continued

16
20
25
55

Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 120,449 122,631 124,603
24,887 24,757 24,503
to 2 4 ..................................................
and o ver............................................. 111,608 113,608 115,493
80,035 82,379 84,638
to 5 4 ..................................................
15,527 15,495 15,462
and over.............................................

126,453
24,195
117,385
86,859
15,399

128,123
23,916
119,271
88,873
15,334

69.0
76.0
69.4
85.2
32.5

69.5
76.7
70.0
85.9
32.2

70.1
77.6
70.5
86.6
31.9

70.6
78.7
71.0
87.2
31.7

71.1
79.7
71.4
87.8
31.4

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ver.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ..............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 44-,..........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ver.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

65,583
12,654
4,535
2,020
2,515
8,119
61,048
43,441
18,539
9,411
9,128
14,902
8,355
6,547
10,000
5,295
4,705
9,488
7,364
4,323
3,041
2,124
1,221
587
316

66,344
12,496
4,618
2,096
2,522
7,878
61,726
44,384
18,757
9,403
9,354
15,416
8,332
7,084
10,211
5,489
4,722
9,464
7,294
4,276
3,018
2,170
1,256
591
323

67,012
12,276
4,645
2,053
2,592
7,631
62,367
45,298
18,901
9,364
9,537
15,805
8,485
7,320
10,592
5,819
4,773
9,438
7,232
4,222
3,010
2,206
1,280
596
330

67,632
12,042
4,613
1,931
2,682
7,429
63,019
46,196
18,978
9,309
9,669
16,313
8,681
7,632
10,905
6,056
4,849
9,394
7,157
4,168
2,989
2,237
1,295.
605
337

68,174
11,833
4,489
1,879
2,610
7,344
63,685
46,988
18,934
9,173
9,761
16,873
8,916
7,957
11,181
6,256
4,925
9,353
7,090
4,108
2,982
2,263
1,299
621
343

79.3
78.9
65.8
56.4
75.8
88.7
80.5
95.1
96.2
95.5
96.9
96.1
96.7
95.4
91.8
93.6
89.9
45.2
72.3
82.3
61.7
19.7
29.6
19.4
8.7

79.4
79.0
66.3
57.2
76.4
89.0
80.6
95.2
96.3
95.6
97.0
96.2
96.8
95.5
91.9
93.6
90.0
44.9
72.3
82.3
61.7
19.7
29.6
19.4
8.7

79.6
79.4
67.1
57.8
77.1
89.3
80.7
95.3
96.4
95.8
97.1
96.2
96.9
95.5
92.0
93.6
90.0
44.5
72.3
82.3
61.7
19.7
29.6
19.4
8.7

79.8
80.0
68.2
58.4
77.6
89.6
80.8
95.4
96.6
95.9
97.3
96.3
97.0
95.6
92.0
93.7
90.0
44.1
72.2
82.4
61.7
19.7
29.6
19.4
8.7

79.9
80.5
68.8
59.1
78.1
89.8
80.9
95.5
96.7
96.0
97.4
96.4
97.1
95.6
92.1
93.7
90.1
43.8
72.2
82.4
61.7
19.6
29.6
19.4
8.7

Women, 16 and over ..............................
16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ver.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...................................... ........
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ..................................... .....
55 and o ver.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and o v e r....................................

54,866
12,233
4,306
1,853
2,453
7,927
50,560
36,594
16,425
8,620
7,805
12,796
7,185
5,611
7,373
4,029
3,344
6,039
4,800
2,800
2,000
1,239
767
309
163

56,287
12,261
4,405
1,930
2,475
7,856
51,882
37,995
16,910
8,771
8,139
13,471
7,323
6,148
7,614
4,226
3,388
6,031
4,767
2,769
1,998
1,264
788
310
166

57,591
12,227
4,465
1,903
2,562
7,762
53,126
39,340
17,316
8,881
8,435
14,047
7,602
6,445
7,977
4,526
3,451
6,024
4,737
2,739
1,998
1,287
803
313
171

58,821
12,153
4,455
1,802
2,653
7,698
54,366
40,663
17,643
8,955
8,688
14,724
7,912
6,812
8,296
4,760
3,536
6,005
4,700
2,708
1,992
1,305
811
319
175

59,949
12,083
4,363
1,761
2,602
7,720
55,586
41,885
17,853
8,958
8,895
15,444
8,252
7,192
8,588
4,968
3,620
5,981
4,662
2,671
1,991
1,319
813
327
179

59.7
73.3
61.9
53.2
70.7
59.5
81.4
75.7
81.3
83.3
79.2
77.5
78.1
76.8
63.5
66.8
59.9
22.5
42.8
49.6
35.8
7.9
14.9
7.5
2.6

60.7
74.5
62.8
54.2
71.7
60.5
83.2
77.1
82.8
84.9
80.7
79.0
79.9
78.1
64.3
67.7
60.4
22.3
42.9
49.7
36.1
7.9
14.9
7.4
2.6

61.5
75.9
64.1
55.2
72.9
61.3
84.9
78.3
84.3
86.4
82.1
80.5
81.5
79.4
65.0
68.6
60.9
22.1
43.1
49.9
36.4
7.9
14.9
7.5
2.6

62.4
77.4
65.5
56.1
73.9
62.2
86.6
79.4
85.7
87.9
83.5
82.0
83.1
80.6
65.7
69.4
61.3
21.9
43.3
50.0
36.6
7.9
14.9
7.5
2.6

63.2
78.9
66.5
57.1
74.8
63.0
88.1
80.5
86.9
89.2
84.8
83.2
84.6
81.7
66.4
70.2
61.8
21.7
43.4
50.1
36.8
7.9
. 14.9
7.5
2.6

White
Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 104,336 105,981 107,434

108,756

109,930

68.9

69.5

70.0

70.5

70.9

58,918

59,245

79.7

79.7

79.9

80.0

80.1

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................




57,551

58,081

58,529

138

C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

High growth path—Continued
16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

10,857
3,922
6,935
53,629
38,148
16,091
13,225
8,832
8,546
6,632
1,914

10,676
3,974
6,702
54,107
38,898
16,231
13,660
9,007
8,507
6,553
1,954

10,440
3,973
6,467
54,556
39,626
16,306
13,968
9,352
8,463
6,479
1,984

10,182
3,913
6,269
55,005
40,332
16,322
14,385
9,625
8,404
6,394
2,010

9,953
3,775
6,178
55,470
40,939
16,232
14,846
9,861
8,353
6,320
2,033

80.5
68.5
89.4
80.6
95.5
96.6
96.5
92.3
45.4
72.8
19.7

80.6
68.9
89.6
80.7
95.6
96.7
96.5
92.4
45.0
72.8
19.8

80.9
69.7
89.8
80.7
95.6
96.7
96.5
92.4
44.7
72.7
19.7

81.5
70.7
90.0
80.7
95.6
96.8
96.6
92.4
44.2
72.7
19.7

81.9
71.1
90.2
80.8
95.7
96.9
96.6
92.4
43.9
72.7
19.7

Women, 16 and over..................................

46,785

47,900

48,905

49,838

50,685

59.1

60.1

60.9

61.8

62.5

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ve r............................................

10,424
3,733
6,691
43,052
31,056
13,751
10,954
6,351
5,305
4,217
1,088

10,404
3,803
6,601
44,097
32,212
14,138
11,522
6,552
5,284
4,175
1,109

10,325
3,834
■ 6,491
45,071
33,318
14,456
11,988
6,874
5,262
4,135
1,127

10,208
3,801
6,407
46,037
34,402
14,707
12,546
7,149
5,228
4,088
1,140

10,100
3,696
6,404
46,989
35,391
14,856
13,142
7,393
5,194
4,043
1,151

75.5
65.3
82.7
58.7
75.3
80.9
77.1
63.3
22.1
42.4
7.7

76.7
66.2
84.4
59.6
76.7
82.5
78.7
64.0
21.9
42.6
7.7

78.1
67.5
86.1
60.4
77.9
84.0
80.3
64.8
21.7
42.7
7.7

79.5
68.8
87.6
61.3
79.1
85.4
81.7
65.5
21.5
42.9
7.7

80.9
69.8
89.1
62.0
80.2
86.8
83.1
66.2
21.2
43.0
7.6

Total, 16 and o v e r...............................

16,113

16,650

17,169

17,697

18,193

69.3

70.1

70.9

71.7

72.5

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

8,032

8,263

8,483

8,714

8,929

76.8

77.3

77.8

78.4

79.0

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 54 .................................................
55 and o ver................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ver............................................

1,797
613
1,184
7,419
5,293
2,448
1,677
1,168
942
732
210

1,820
644
1,176
7,619
5,486
2,526
1,756
1,204
957
741
216

1,836
672
1,164
7,811
5,672
2,595
1,837
1,240
975
753
222

1,860
700
1,160
8,014
5,864
2,656
1,928
1,280
990
763
227

1,880
714
1,166
8,215
6,049
2,702
2,027
1,320
1,000
770
230

70.2
52.4
85.2
79.8
92.3
93.8
93.4
88.1
43.4
68.0
19.1

70.8
53.6
85.9
80.3
92.7
94.2
93.8
88.5
43.3
68.2
19.2

71.6
55.0
86.5
80.6
93.2
94.6
94.2
88.8
43.3
68.5
19.2

72.8
57.1
87.2
81.1
93.6
95.2
94.5
89.3
43.3
68.7
19.3

74.0
58.8
87.9
81.4
94.0
95.6
94.9
89.6
43.0
68.8
19.1

Women, 16 and over..................................

8,081

8,387

8,686

8,983

9,264

63.3

64.3

65.3

66.2

67.1

16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ver............................................

1,809
573
1,236
7,508
5,538
2,674
1,842
1,022
734
583
151

1,857
602
1,255
7,785
5,783
2,772
1,949
1,062
747
592
155

1,902
631
1,271
8,055
6,022
2,860
2,059
1,103
762
602
160

1,945
654
1,291
8,329
6,261
2,936
2,178
1,147
777
612
165

1,983
667
1,316
8,597
6,494
2,997
2,302
1,195
787
619
168

62.8
46.4
75.0
65.1
78.3
83.7
79.9
64.9
26.1
45.4
9.9

64.3
47.7
77.3
66.1
79.3
84.8
81.1
65.6
26.0
45.6
9.9

66.1
49.3
79.5
67.0
80.3
85.8
82.3
66.4
26.0
45.8
9.9

67.9
51.1
81.6
67.8
81.3
86.8
83.4
67.1
26.0
46.0
9.9

69.8
52.8
83.5
68.6
82.1
87.8
84.3
67.8
25.8
46.2
9.8

B la c k a n d o th e r




139

G-1. Civilian Saber fo rce and Saber fore® participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—
-Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

High growth path—Continued

16
20
25
55

Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 129,726 131,092 132,391
to 2 4 ..................................................
23,768 23,589 23,509
and over............................................. 121,146 122,596 123,779
to 5 4 ..................................................
90,643 92,181 93,520
and over ............................................. 15,315 15,322 15,362

133,438
23,331
124,610
94,674
15,433

134,753
23,375
125,674
95,884
15,494

71.5
80.4
71.8
88.3
31.2

71.9
80.9
72.1
88.7
31.1

72.1
81.4
72.3
89.0
31.0

72.2
81.3
72.4
89.2
30.9

72.4
81.9
72.6
89.3
30.9

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ver.............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and over .............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

68,736
11,724
4,335
1,907
2,428
7,389
64,401
47,676
18,777
8,912
9,865
17,468
9,105
8,363
11,431
6,378
5,053
9,336
7,050
4,094
2,956
2,286
1,302
635
349

69,238
11,609
4,281
1,939
2,342
7,328
64,957
48,295
18,501
8,644
9,857
17,658
9,320
8,338
12,136
6,896
5,240
9,334
7,034
4,110
2,924
2,300
1,292
654
354

69,739
11,548
4,331
1,968
2,363
7,217
65,408
48,838
18,184
8,368
9,816
17,981
9,498
8,483
12,673
7,122
5,551
9,353
7,040
4,155
2,885
2,313
1,289
665
359

70,270
11,495
4,432
2,040
2,392
7,063
65,838
49,384
17,894
8,139
9,755
18,293
9,623
8,670
13,197
7,420
5,777
9,391
7,071
4,223
2,848
2,320
1,281
673
366

70,835
11,463
4,553
2,137
2,416
6,910
66,282
49,950
17,645
8,031
9,614
18,604
9,708
8,896
13,701
7,733
5,968
9,422
7,092
4,288
2,804
2,330
1,279
677
374

80.1
81.0
69.1
59.9
78.5
90.1
81.0
95.5
96.9
96.1
97.5
96.4
97.2
95.6
92.2
93.8
90.2
43.5
72.2
82.4
61.7
19.6
29.6
19.4
8.7

80.2
81.4
69.4
60.6
79.0
90.4
81.0
95.6
97.0
96.2
97.7
96.5
97.3
95.7
92.2
93.8
90.2
43.3
72.4
82.5
61.7
19.5
29.6
19.4
8.7

80.3
81.7
70.1
61.3
79.6
90.7
81.1
95.6
97.1
96.3
97.8
96.6
97.4
95.7
92.3
93.9
30.3
43.2
72.5
82.6
61.6
19.4
29.6
19.4
8.7

80.4
81.8
70.6
62.0
80.1
90.9
81.1
95.7
97.3
96.5
97.9
96.6
97.4
95.8
92.3
93.9
90.3
43.2
72.7
82.6
61.6
19.3
29.6
19.4
8.7

80.5
82.0
71.1
62.7
80.6
91.2
81.2
95.7
97.4
96.6
98.0
96.7
97.5
95.8
92.4
94.0
90.4
43.1
72.8
82.7
61.6
19.2
29.6
19.4
8.7

Women, 16 and over ..............................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ve r.............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ve r.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and o v e r....................................

60,990
12,044
4,245
1,794
2,451
7,799
56,745
42,967
17,922
8,824
9,098
16,207
8,557
7,650
8,838
5,105
3,733
5,979
4,650
2,673
1,977
1,329
814
333
182

61,854
11,980
4,215
1,833
2,382
7,765
57,639
43,886
17,860
8,667
9,193
16,588
8,875
7,713
9,438
5,551
3,887
5,988
4,653
2,692
1,961
1,335
808
342
185

62,652
11,961
4,281
1,868
2,413
7,680
58,371
44,682
17,721
8,481
9,240
17,060
9,144
7,916
9,901
5,771
4,130
6,009
4,670
2,726
1,944
1,339
803
348
188

63,168
11,836
4,396
1,944
2,452
7,440
58,772
45,290
17,498
8,293
9,205
17,422
9,307
8,115
10,370
6,053
4,317
6,042
4,703
2,777
1,926
1,339
795
352
192

63,918
11,912
4,526
2,042
2,484
7,386
59,392
45,934
17,322
8,211
9,111
17,781
9,431
8,350
10,831
6,352
4,479
6,072
4,731
2,827
1,904
1,341
791
353
197

63.9
79.8
67.1
58.2
75.7
88.9
63.6
81.5
88.1
90.5
85.9
84.4
86.0
82.8
67.0
70.9
62.2
21.6
43.6
50.2
37.1
7.8
14.9
7.5
2.6

64.4
80.5
67.9
59.2
76.6
89.5
64.1
82.2
89.1
91.6
87.0
85.5
87.2
83.7
67.6
71.6
62.6
21.5
43.8
50.3
37.3
7.8
14.9
7.5
2.6

64.8
81.1
68.9
60.2
77.6
90.0
64.5
82.8
90.0
92.5
87.9
86.5
88.2
84.5
68.0
72.2
62.9
21.5
44.0
50.4
37.4
7.7
14.9
7.5
2.6

64.9
80.9
69.7
61.1
78.5
89.3
64.6
83.0
90.4
93.0
88.2
86.9
88.7
84.9
68.5
72.8
63.3
21.5
44.3
50.5
37.6
7.7
14.9
7.5
2.6

65.2
81.8
70.5
62.0
79.4
90.7
64.9
83.3
90.8
93.4
88.6
87.2
89.1
85.2
69.0
73.3
63.6
21.5
44.5
50.5
37.8
7.6
14.9
7.5
2.6

111,023 111,909 112,745

113,348

114,208

71.3

71.5

71.7

71.8

71.9

60,472

60,817

80.2

80.2

80.2

80.3

80.3

W h ite

Total, 16 and o v e r...............................
Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................




59,582

59,869

60,157

140

C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1994

1993

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

High growth path—Continued
16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 34 ...................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

9,814
3,620
6,194
55,962
41,446
16,043
15,331
10,072
8,322
6,272
2,050

9,669
3,560
6,109
56,309
41,896
15,756
15,430
10,710
8,304
6,244
2,060

9,572
3,594
5,978
56,563
42,277
15,432
15,666
11,179
8,308
6,239
2,069

9,488
3,672
5,816
56,800
42,656
15,134
15,896
11,626
8,328
6,256
2,072

9,421
3,766
5,655
57,051
43,051
14,871
16,129
12,051
8,345
6,269
2,076

82.2
71.2
90.4
80.8
95.7
97.0
96.6
92.4
43.6
72.7
19.6

82.4
71.4
90.6
80.8
95.7
97.1
96.6
92.5
43.4
72.8
19.5

82.6
71.8
90.8
80.8
95.7
97.1
96.7
92.5
43.3
72.9
19.4

82.6
72.0
90.9
80.8
95.7
97.2
96.7
92.5
43.2
73.1
19.3

82.5
72.3
91.1
80.9
95.7
97.3
96.7
92.5
43.1
73.2
19.2

Women, 16 and over..................................

51,441

52,040

52,588

52,876

53,391

63.2

63.6

64.0

64.0

64.3

16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ver................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

10,011
3,572
6,439
47,869
36,249
14,882
13,769
7,598
5,181
4,024
1,157

9,900
3,532
6,368
48,508
36,964
14,800
14,039
8,125
5,176
4,016
1,160

9,835
3,581
6,254
49,007
37,569
14,648
14,408
8,513
5,184
4,023
1,161

9,675
3,671
6,004
49,205
37,999
14,419
14,682
8,898
5,202
4,044
1,158

9,710
3,772
5,938
49,619
38,462
14,232
14,959
9,271
5,219
4,063
1,156

81.6
70.3
89.7
62.7
81.2
88.0
84.3
66.7
21.1
43.2
7.6

82.2
70.9
90.1
63.1
81.9
89.1
85.4
67.3
21.0
43.4
7.5

82.5
71.6
90.4
63.5
82.5
90.1
86.4
67.7
21.0
43.6
7.5

81.9
72.2
89.3
63.5
82.7
90.4
86.8
68.1
20.9
43.9
7.4

82.8
72.7
90.8
63.7
83.0
90.8
87.2
68.6
20.9
44.1
7.3

Black and other
Total, 16 and o v e r................................

18,703

19,183

19,646

20,090

20,545

73.2

73.9

74.5

75.0

75.4

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

9,154

9,369

9,582

9,798

10,018

79.6

80.2

80.7

81.2

81.7

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,910
715
1,195
8,439
6,230
2,734
2,137
1,359
1,014
778
236

1,940
721
1,219
8,648
6,399
2,745
2,228
1,426
1,030
790
240

1,976
737
1,239
8,845
6,561
2,752
2,315
1,494
1,045
801
244

2,007
760
1,247
9,038
6,728
2,760
2,397
1,571
1,063
815
248

2,042
787
1,255
9,231
6,899
2,774
2,475
1,650
1,077
823
254

75.2
60.0
88.6
81.9
94.4
96.1
95.3
90.1
42.9
69.0
19.1

76.4
61.3
89.4
82.3
94.8
96.5
95.7
90.4
43.0
69.3
19.1

77.6
62.9
90.0
82.7
95.2
97.0
96.1
90.8
43.0
69.5
19.1

78.6
64.5
90.8
83.0
95.6
97.5
96.4
91.2
43.0
69.8
19.0

79.6
65.9
91.5
83.4
96.0
98.0
96.8
91.7
42.9
70.0
19.1

Women, 16 and over..................................

9,549

9,814

10,064

10,292

10,527

68.0

68.7

69.4

69.8

70.3

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o v e r................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

2,033
673
1,360
8,876
6,718
3,040
2,438
1,240
798
626
172

2,080
683
1,397
9,131
6,922
3,060
2,549
1,313
812
637
175

2,126
700
1,426
9,364
7,113
3,073
2,652
1,388
825
647
178

2,161
725
1,436
9,567
7,291
3,079
2,740
1,472
840
659
181

2,202
754
1,448
9,773
7,472
3,090
2,822
1,560
853
668
185

71.7
54.3
85.3
69.3
82.9
88.6
85.3
68.5
25.7
46.3
9.8

73.5
55.8
86.9
70.0
83.6
89.3
86.1
69.3
25.7
46.5
9.7

75.1
57.6
88.3
70.5
84.2
89.9
86.8
70.1
25.6
46.6
9.7

76.4
59.3
89.4
70.8
84.5
90.4
87.2
70.9
25.6
46.8
9.7

77.6
61.0
90.5
71.1
84.9
90.8
87.5
71.6
25.5
47.0
9.6




141

0-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

1996 .

1997

1998

1999

2000

High growth path—Continued

16
20
25
55

Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 136,157 137,436 138,863
to 2 4 ..................................................
23,350 23,724 24,367
and over ............................................. 126,675 127,477 128,411
to 5 4 ..................................................
97,060 97,771 98,064
16,432
and o ver............................................. 15,747 15,941

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and over .............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ve r.............................................
55 to 6 4 ..............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

140,388
25,156
129,481
98,413
16,819

141,933
25,931
130,658
98,848
17,154

72.6
82.0
72.7
89.5
31.1

72.7
82.2
72.8
89.6
31.2

72.8
82.5
72.8
89.7
31.7

73.0
83.0
72.9
89.9
32.0

73.1
83.4
73.1
90.0
32.3

71,537
11,443
4,749
2,252
2,497
6,694
66,788
50,491
17,404
8,058
9,346
18,880
9,802
9,078
14,207
8,126
6,081
9,603
7,276
4,481
2,795
2,327
1,269
677
381

72,109
11,628
4,985
2,377
2,608
6,643
67,124
50,800
17,055
7,984
9,071
19,071
9,787
9,284
14,674
8,104
6,570
9,681
7,365
4,562
2,803
2,316
1,254
673
389

72,798
11,948
5,229
2,484
2,745
6,719
67,569
50,876
16,653
7,863
8,790
19,192
9,742
9,450
15,031
8,244
6,787
9,974
7,669
4,836
2,833
2,305
1,238
671
396

73,531
12,338
5,453
2,562
2,891
6,885
68,078
50,994
16,250
7,692
8,558
19,246
9,676
9,570
15,498
8,425
7,073
10,199
7,908
5,032
2,876
2,291
1,222
667
402

74,277
12,723
5,634
2,621
3,013
7,089
68,643
51,159
15,965
7,517
8,448
19,182
9,533
9,649
16,012
8,643
7,369
10,395
8,115
5,195
2,920
2,280
1,206
666
408

80.6
82.0
71.7
63.4
81.2
91.4
81.3
95.8
97.5
96.7
98.2.
96.8
97.6
95.9
92.4
94.0
90.4
43.4
73.1
82.7
61.6
19.1
29.6
19.4
8.7

80.6
82.1
72.2
64.0
81.7
91.6
81.3
95.8
97.6
96.8
98.3
96.8
97.7
95.9
92.4
94.1
90.5
43.5
73.2
82.8
61.6
19.0
29.6
19.4
8.7

80.7
82.4
72.8
64.7
82.2
91.8
81.3
95.8
97.7
96.9
98.4
96.9
97.8
96.0
92.5
94.1
90.5
44.0
73.5
82.8
61.6
18.9
29.5
19.4
8.7

80.7
82.8
73.4
65.2
82.6
92.1
81.4
95.8
97.8
97.0
98.5
97.0
97.9
96.0
92.5
94.2
90.6
44.5
73.7
82.9
61.6
18.8
29.5
19.4
8.7

80.8
83.2
74.0
65.8
83.0
92.3
81.4
95.8
97.9
97.2
98.6
97.0
98.0
96.1
92.5
94.2
90.6
44.8
73.8
82.9
61.6
18.7
29.6
19.4
8.7

Women, 16 and over ..............................
64,620
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
11,907
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
4,733
16 and 1 7 ........................................
2,160
2,573
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
7,174
20 and o ver............................................. 59,887
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
46,569
25 to 3 4 ............................................... 17,151
8,257
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
8,894
35 to 4 4 ............................................... 18,113
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
9,557
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
8,556
45 to 5 4 ............................................... 11,305
6,723
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
4,582
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
6,144
55 and o ver.............................................
4,809
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
2,900
1,909
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
1,335
65 and over.........................................
781
65 to 6 9 ......................................... ..................
353
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
201
75 and o v e r....................................

65,327
12,096
4,974
2,285
2,689
7,122
60,353
46,971
16,883
8,212
8,671
18,374
9,586
8,788
11,714
6,755
4,959
6,260
4,933
3,005
1,928
1,327
771
351
205

66,065
12,419
5,223
2,394
2,829
7,196
60,842
47,188
16,560
8,122
8,438
18,563
9,580
8,983
12,065
6,920
5,145
6,458
5,139
3,182
1,957
1,319
762
349
208

66,857
12,818
5,454
2,474
2,980
7,364
61,403
47,419
16,229
7,975
8,254
18,684
9,547
9,137
12,506
7,119
5,387
6,620
5,310
3,311
1,999
1,310
752
346
212

67,656
13,208
5,641 •
2,536
3,105
7,567
62,015
47,689
15,995
7,825
8,170
18,705
9,451
9,254
12,989
7,349
5,640
6,759
5,459
3,419
2,040
1,300
741
344
215

65.4
82.0
71.3
63.0
80.2
91.0
65.0
83.6
91.3
93.8
89.0
87.6
89.5
85.6
69.6
73.9
64.0
21.6
44.7
50.6
37.9
7.5
14.9
7.5
2.6

65.6
82.3
72.0
63.8
81.0
91.3
65.1
83.8
91.7
94.3
89.4
88.0
89.9
86.0
69.8
74.5
64.3
21.8
44.9
50.7
38.1
7.5
14.9
7.5
2.6

65.8
82.7
72.8
64.6
81.7
91.7
65.3
84.0
92.1
94.8
89.8
88.3
90.3
86.3
70.3
75.1
64.7
22.1
45.1
50.7
38.2
7.4
14.9
7.5
2.6

66.0
83.1
73.6
65.3
82.4
91.9
65.4
84.3
92.6
95.2
90.1
88.7
90.7
86.7
70.7
75.7
65.1
22.4
45.3
50.8
38.4
7.3
14.9
7.5
2.6

66.2
83.6
74.3
66.0
82.9
92.2
65.6
84.5
93.0
95.7
90.5
89.1
91.1
87.1
71.2
76.2
65.5
22.6
45.4
50.9
38.5
7.3
14.9
7.5
2.6

White
Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 115,063 115,935 116,870

117,875

118,900

72.0

72.1

72.1

72.2

72.3

62,544

63,032

80.3

80.3

80.2

80.2

80.3

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................




61,205

61,621

62,065

142

C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

High growth path—Continued
16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

9,374
3,921
5,453
57,284
43,412
14,607
16,332
12,473
8,419
6,349
2,070

9,511
4,108
5,403
57,513
43,562
14,248
16,452
12,862
8,548
6,492
2,056

9,766
4,300
5,466
57,765
43,490
13,842
16,509
13,139
8,809
6,767
2,042

10,078
4,475
5,603
58,069
43,465
13,442
16,508
13,515
9,001
6,976
2,025

10,383
4,610
5,773
58,422
43,484
13,150
16,404
13,930
9,165
7,154
2,011

82.4
72.6
91.2
80.9
95.7
97.3
96.7
92.5
43.2
73.4
19.1

82.3
72.8
91.3
80.9
95.6
97.3
96.7
92.4
43.5
73.5
19.0

82.4
73.1
91.4
80.8
95.6
97.3
96.7
92.4
44.1
73.8
18.9

82.5
73.5
91.5
80.8
95.5
97.4
96.7
92.4
44.5
73.9
18.8

82.7
73.7
91.6
80.8
95.5
97.4
96.7
92.4
44.8
74.0
18.7

Women, 16 and over..................................

53,858

54,314

54,805

55,331

55,868

64.5

64.6

64.7

64.9

65.1

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and o ve r............................................

9,675
3,938
5,737
49,920
38,912
14,042
15,215
9,655
5,271
4,123
1,148

9,811
4,129
5,682
50,185
39,141
13,765
15,402
9,974
5,362
4,225
1,137

10,065
4,327
5,738
50,478
39,204
13,442
15(527
10,235
5,536
4,409
1,127

10,376
4,505
5,871
50,826
39,284
13,116
15,593
10,575
5,671
4,556
1,115

10,678
4,644
6,034
51,224
39,406
12,881
15,573
10,952
5,784
4,681
1,103

82.8
73.3
90.9
63.9
83.3
91.3
87.6
69.1
21.0
44.3
7.3

82.8
73.7
91.0
64.0
83.4
91.7
87.9
69.3
21.2
44.5
7.2

83.0
74.2
91.1
64.0
83.6
92.1
88.3
69.6
21.6
44.7
7.1

83.2
74.7
91.2
64.2
83.8
92.5
88.7
70.0
21.9
44.9
7.1

83.4
75.0
91.3
64.3
84.0
92.9
89.0
70.4
22.1
45.1
7.0

Total, 16 and o v e r...............................

21,094

21,501

21,993

22,513

23,033

75.9

76.3

76.8

77.3

77.7

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

10,332

10,488

10,733

10,987

11,245

82.2

82.7

83.2

83.7

84.2

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ver................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

2,069
828
1,241
9,504
7,079
2,797
2,548
1,734
1,184
927
257

2,117
877
1,240
9,611
7,238
2,807
2,619
1,812
1,133
873
260

2,182
929
1,253
9,804
7,386
2,811
2,683
1,892
1,165
902
263

2,260
978
1,282
10,009
7,529
2,808
2,738
1,983
1,198
932
266

2,340
1,024
1,316
10,221
7,675
2,815
2,778
2,082
1,230
961
269

80.5
67.6
92.3
83.8
96.4
98.4
97.2
92.1
44.6
71.4
19.0

81.5
69.4
93.0
84.2
96.7
98.9
97.6
92.5
43.5
70.9
18.9

82.7
71.4
93.6
84.5
97.1
99.4
98.0
92.9
43.8
71.3
18.8

83.9
73.2
94.4
84.9
97.5
99.9
98.4
93.3
44.1
71.8
18.8

85.3
75.2
95.2
85.2
97.9
100.4
98.8
93.7
44.4
72.1
18.7

Women, 16 and over..................................

10,762

11,013

11,260

11,526

11,788

70.7

71.1

71.5

72.0

72.4

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ....................................... ..........
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

2,232
795
1,437
9,967
7,657
3,109
2,898
1,650
873
686
187

2,285
845
1,440
10,168
7,830
3,118
2,972
1,740
898
708
190

2,354
896
1,458
10,364
7,984
3,118
3,036
1,830
922
730
192

2,442
949
1,493
10,577
8,135
3,113
3,091
1,931
949
754
195

2,530
997
1,533
10,791
8,283
3,114
3,132
2,037
975
778
197

78.8
62.8
91.6
71.4
85.2
91.3
87.8
72.4
25.6
47.2
9.5

80.0
64.8
92.7
71.7
85.6
91.8
88.2
73.2
25.8
47.4
9.5

81.3
66.8
93.8
72.0
86.0
92.3
88.5
74.0
25.8
47.5
9.4

82.9
69.1
94.9
72.3
86.4
92.8
88.8
74.8
26.0
47.8
9.4

84.5
71.3
96.1
72.5
86.8
93.3
89.2
75.6
26.1
47.8
9.3

Black and other




143

0=1. Civilian labor fore® and labor fore© participation rates by ag®, sen, and rac®, 1981 to 2000
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1982

1983

1984

1985

1982

1983

1984

1985

Low growth, path

Total, 16 and o v e r.............................
to 2 4 ..................................................
and over .............................................
to 5 4 ..................................................
and o ve r.............................................

107,722
24,912
98,570
68,219
14,591

109,149
24,645
100,247
70,019
14,485

110,456
24,285
101,854
71,838
14,333

111,706
23,922
103,283
73,604
14,180

64.2
70.4
64.7
78.9
31.8

64.4
70.9
64.8
79.2
31.2

64.5
71.4
64.9
79.6
30.5

64.6
71.7
65.0
80.0
29.9

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 17 .........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ve r.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 .................................. ........
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ve r.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

61,275
13,161
4,782
1,969
2,813
8,379
56,493
39,302
17,008
8,825
8,183
12,543
6,961
5,582
9,751
4,905
4,846
8,812
7,008
4,278
2,730
1,804
1,034
518
252

61,731
12,952
4,630
1,897
2,733
8,322
57,101
40,074
17,278
8,979
8,299
13,087
7,178
5,909
9,709
4,945
4,764
8,705
6,939
4,226
2,713
1,766
1,009
510
247

62,119
12,702
4,453
1,859
2,594
8,249
57,666
40,851
17,539
9,085
8,454
13,617
7,473
6,144
9,695
5,012
4,683
8,566
6,836
4,159
2,677
1,730
989
500
241

62,458
12,445
4,344
1,858
2,486
8,101
58,114
41,584
17,796
9,149
8,647
14,116
7,777
6,339
9,672
5,078
4,594
8,429
6,725
4,108
2,617
1,704
980
488
236

77.1
75.8
62.5
52.2
72.6
86.2
78.6
93.6
94.5
94.2
94.8
95.0
95.3
94.6
90.6
92.7
88.5
43.7
69.3
79.8
57.4
18.0
26.9
17.9
7.6

76.9
76.0
62.8
52.4
72.8
86.1
78.3
93.4
94.2
94.1
94.4
94.8
95.1
94.4
90.3
92.4
88.2
42.7
68.1
79.0
56.0
17.3
26.0
17.4
7.3

76.6
76.1
62.8
52.7
72.8
85.9
77.9
93.2
94.0
93.9
94.0
94.6
94.9
94.3
90.0
92.2
87.8
41.6
66.9
78.3
54.6
16.7
25.1
16.8
7.0

76.3
76.1
62.8
52.9
73.0
S5.8
77.5
93.0
93.7
93.8
93.7
94.4
94.7
94.2
89.8
92.0
87.4
40.5
65.8
77.5
53.2
16.1
24.3
16.3
6.6

Women, 16 and o v e r..............................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ve r.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ..............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ..............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
■ 50 to 5 4 .............................. ............
55 and o ver............ ;...............................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 .............................. ..... ......
75 and over ....................................

46,447
11,751
4,370
1,762
2,608
7,381
42,077
28,917
12,685
6,817
5,868
9,437
5,211
4,226
6,795
3,483
3,312
5,779
4,653
2,861
1,792
1,126
716
283
127

47,418
11,693
4,272
1,713
2,559
7,421
43,146
29,945
13,125
7,064
6,061
9,998
5,466
4,532
6,822
3,549
3,273
5,780
4,660
2,847
1,813
1,120
715
282
123

48,337
11,583
4,149
1,695
2,454
7,434
44,188
30,987
13,556
7,276
6,280
10,563
5,785
4,778
6,868
3,637
3,231
5,767
4,641
2,822
1,819
1,126
720
281
125

49,248
11,477
4,079
1,708
2,371
7,398
45,169
32,020
13,988
7,459
6,529
11,121
6,124
4,997
6,911
3,726
3,185
5,751
4,615
2,807
1,808
1,136
731
278
127

52.6
65.1
56.8
47.9
64.9
71.4
52.2
64.9
67.1
69.3
64.7
66.7
66.6
66.8
59.3
61.8
56.8
22.5
41.3
48.9
33.2
7.8
14.8
7.1
2.2

53.1
66.0
57.5
48.6
65.5
72.2
52.7
65.9
68.2
70.5
65.7
67.7
67.7
67.7
59.6
62.3
56.9
22.2
41.2
49.0
32.9
7.6
14.7
7.0
2.1

53.7
66.8
58.0
49.3
66.0
73.0
53.3
66.8
69.2
71.6
66.7
68.7
68.8
68.6
59.9
62.8
56.9
21.9
41.0
49.0
32.7
7.5
14.6
6.9
2.1

54.1
67.5
58.4
49.9
66.6
73.8
53.8
67.7
70.3
72.8
67.6
69.8
70.0
69.6
60.2
63.3
57.0
21.6
40.9
49.1
32.4
7.4
14.5
6.8
2.1

Total, 16 and o v e r................................

94,438

95,544

96,541

97,496

64.5

64.7

64.8

65.0

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

54,435

54,773

55,049

55,287

77.9

77.7

77.5

77.2

16
20
25
55

W h ite




144

C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1932 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1982

1983

1984

1985

1982

1983

1984

1985

Low growth path—Continued
16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 19 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ver................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ver............................................

11,579
4,262
7,317
50,173
34,855
14,957
11,205
8,693
8,001
6,366
1,635

11,384
4,127
7,257
50,646
35,495
15,157
11,692
8,646
7,894
6,294
1,600

11,156
3,970
7,186
51,079
36,135
15,353
12,156
8,626
7,758
6,191
1,567

10,923
3,879
7,044
51,408
36,742
15,550
12,590
8,602
7,622
6,080
1,542

78.4
66.4
87.6
79.1
94.4
95.2
95.6
91.5
44.1
69.9
18.1

78.8
66.9
87.6
78.7
94.2
95.0
95.5
91.2
43.0
68.7
17.4

79.0
67.2
87.6
78.4
94.0
94.8
95.3
91.0
41.9
67.5
16.8

79.2
67.4
87.6
78.0
93.8
94.5
95.1
90.8
40.8
66.4
16.2

Women, 16 and over..................................

40,003

40,771

41,492

42,209.

52.3

52.8

53.3

53.8

16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

10,233
3,877
6,356
36,126
24,645
10,641
8,101
5,903
5,125
4,131
994

10,167
3,786
6,361
36,985
25,488
10,984
8,585
5,919
5,116
4,127
989

10,057
3,672
6,385
37,820
26,341
11,324
9,063
5,954
5,094
4,100
994

9,952
3,610
6,342
38,599
27,187
11,668
9,531
5,988
5,070
4,068
1,002

67.8
60.6
73.0
51.5
64.4
66.2
66.2
59.2
22.1
41.1
7.6

68.8
61.5
74.0
52.0
65.3
67.4
67.2
59.5
21.8
40.9
7.4

69.7
62.2
74.9
52.6
66.3
68.4
68.3
59.9
21.5
40.7
7.3

70.5
62.8
75.8
53.1
67.2
69.5
69.4
60.3
21.2
40.6
7.2

Black and other
Total, 16 and o v e r................................

13,284

13,605

13,915

14,210

62.1

62.3

62.4

62.4

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

6,840

6,958

7,070

7,171

70.9

70.7

70.4

69.9

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ve r............................................

1,582
520
1,062
6,320
4,447
2,051
1,338
1,058
811
642
169

1,568
503
1,065
6,455
4,579
2,121
1,395
1,063
811
645
166

1,546
483
1,063
6,587
4,716
2,186
1,461
1,069
808
645
163

1,522
465
1,057
6,706
4,842
2,246
1,526
1,070
807
645
162

61.0
42.2
78.0
75.2
88.1
89.5
89.7
83.8
40.5
63.7
17.0

60.5
41.6
77.1
74.7
87.8
89.2
89.5
83.2
39.7
62.6
16.4

60.0
40.9
76.3
74.3
87.5
88.8
89.3
82.7
38.8
61.6
15.7

59.3
39.8
75.6
73.8
87.1
88.5
89.0
82.2
37.8
60.8
15.1

Women, 16 and over..................................

6,444

6,647

6,845

7,039

54.9

55.4

55.9

56.3

16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 5 4 ......................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 54 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,518
493
1,025
5,951
4,272
2,044
1,336
892
654
522
132

1,526
486
1,040
6,161
4,457
2,141
1,413
903
664
533
131

1,526
477
1,049
6,368
4,646
2,232
1,500
914
673
541
132

1,525
469
1,056
6,570
4,833
2,320
1,590
923
681
547
134

51.7
38.0
62.5
57.0
68.4
71.7
69.9
60.0
25.5
43.6
9.7

52.1
38.1
62.9
57.4
69.1
72.6
70.7
60.0
25.3
43.5
9.4

52.5
38.2
63.3
57.9
69.7
73.5
71.4
59.9
25.1
43.3
9.2

52.7
38.0
63.6
58.3
70.4
74.4
72.2
59.9
24.7
43.2
9.0




145

C-1. Civilian labor for©® and labor fore® parSSeipation rafos by ag®, sax, and rae®, 1®@2 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Low growth path—Continued

16
20
25
55

Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 113,004 114,310 115,435
to 2 4 ..................................................
23,513 23,199 22,781
and over............................................. 104,580 105,777 106,880
to 5 4 ................................................... 75,509 77,366 79,145
and o ver............................................. 13,982 13,745 13,509

116,484
22,324
108,028
80,903
13,257

117,394
21,899
109,205
82,485
13,010

64.7
71.8
65.1
80.3
29.2

64.8
71.9
65.1
80.7
28.5

64.9
72.2
65.2
80.9
27.9

65.1
72.6
65.3
81.2
27.3

65.2
73.0
65.4
81.5
26.6

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 .......................................... ....
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ver.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 .............................. ............
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ve r.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
...................................
70 to 74
75 and o v e r....................................

62,815
12,160
4,328
1,902
2,426
7,832
58,487
42,391
18,018
9,223
8,795
14,616
8,165
6,451
9,757
5,198
4,559
8,264
6,591
4,037
2,554
1,673
967
476
230

63,179
11,933
4,373
1,954
2,419
7,560
58,806
43,173
18,157
9,190
8,967
15,085
8,117
6,968
9,931
5,376
4,555
8,073
6,426
3,955
2,471
1,647
961
463
223

63,461
11,655
4,370
1,895
2,475
7,285
59,091
43,921
18,222
9,125
9,097
15,427
8,241
7,186
10,272
5,685
4,587
7,885
6,272
3,870
2,402
1,613
944
452
217

63,708
11,364
4,309
1,762
2,547
7,055
59,399
44,655
18,226
9,046
9,180
15,884
8,405
7,479
10,545
5,903
4,642
7,689
6*113
3,785
2,328
1,576
923
444
209

63,888
11,099
4,158
1,697
2,461
6,941
59,730
45,287
18,113
8,889
9,224
16,393
8,609
7,784
10,781
6,084
4,697
7,502
5,963
3,698
2,265
1,539
894
442
203

76.0
75.8
62.8
53.1
73.1
85.6
77.2
92.8
93.5
93.6
93.3
94.3
94.5
94.0
89.6
91.9
87.1
39.4
64.7
76.8
51.8
15.5
23.4
15.7
6.3

75.6
75.4
62.8
53.3
73.3
85.4
76.8
92.6
93.2
93.5
93.0
94.1
94.3
93.9
89.4
91.7
86.8
38.3
63.7
76.1
50.5
15.0
22.6
15.2
6.0

75.4
75.4
63.2
53.3
73.6
85.2
76.5
92.4
93.0
93.3
92.7
93.9
94.1
93.8
89.2
91.5
86.5
37.2
62.7
75.5
49.2
14.4
21.8
14.7
5.7

75.2
75.5
63.7
53.3
73.7
85.1
76.1
92.2
92.8
93.2
92.4
93.8
93.9
93.6
89.0
91.3
86.2
36.1
61.7
74.8
48.0
13.9
21.1
14.2
5.4

74.9
75.5
63.8
53.4
73.7
84.9
75.8
92.0
92.5
93.0
92.1
93.6
93.7
93.5
88.8
91.2
85.9
35.1
60.7
74.2
46.9
13.3
20.4
13.8
5.1

Women, 16 and o v e r..............................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 19 * ......................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ver.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ..............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ver.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

50,189
11,353
4,096
1,764
2,332
7,257
46,093
33,118
14,403
7,646
6,757
11,684
6,534
5,150
7,031
3,846
3,185
5,718
4,572
2,775
1,797
1,146
740
276
130

51,131
11,266
4,160
1,823
2,337
7,106
46,971
34,193
14,755
7,749
7,006
12,224
6,609
5,615
7,214
4,009
3,205
5,672
4,511
2,740
1,771
1,161
753
275
133

51,974
11,126
4,185
1,783
2,402
6,941
47,789
35,224
15,041
7,817
7,224
12,672
6,812
5,860
7,511
4,267
3,244
5,624
4,4552,708
1,747
1,169
760
275
134

52,776
10,960
4,147
1,675
2,472
6,813
48,629
36,248
15,265
7,858
7,407
13,216
7,046
6,170
7,767
4,464
3,303
5,568
4,392
2,674
1,718
1,176
762
277
137

53,506
10,800
4,031
1,624
2,407
6,769
49,475
37,198
15,396
7,841
7,555
13,805
7,311
6,494
7,997
4,635
3,362
5,508
4,330
2,634
1,696
1,178
758
280
140

54.6
68.0
58.9
50.6
67.2
74.5
54.3
68.5
71.3
73.9
68.5
70.8
71.0
70.5
60.6
63.8
57.1
21.3
40.7
49.1
32.2
7.3
14.3
6.7
2.1

55.1
68.5
59.4
51.2
67.7
75.2
54.7
69.3
72.3
75.0
69.5
71.7
72.1
71.3
60.9
64.2
57.2
21.0
40.6
49.2
32.0
7.3
14.2
6.6
2.1

55.5
69.1
60.1
51.7
68.3
75.9
55.2
70.1
73.2
76.1
70.3
72.7
73.1
72.2
61.2
64.7
57.2
20.7
40.5
49.3
31.8
7.2
14.1
6.6
2.0

56.0
69.8
61.0
52.2
68.8
76.6
55.6
70.8
74.1
77.1
71.2
73.6
74.0
73.0
61.5
65.1
57.3
20.4
40.4
49.4
31.6
7.1
14.0
6.5
2.0

56.4
70.5
61.4
52.7
69.2
77.3
56.0
71.5
75.0
78.1
72.0
74.4
75.0
73.8
61.8
65.5
57.4
20.0
40.3
49.4
31.4
7.0
13.9
6.4
2.0

Total, 16 and o v e r................................

98,484

99,478 100,301

101,038

101,661

65.1

65.2

65.3

65.5

65.6

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

55,539

55,797

56,115

56,197

76.9

76.6

76.4

76.2

76.0

W h ite




55,977

140

C -1. C ivilian ia b o r fo r c e an d ia b o r fo rc e p a rtic ip a tio n ra te s b y a g e , sex, a n d ra c e , 1982 to 2 0 0 0 -—C o n tin u e d

(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1986

1987

1989

1988

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Low growth path—Continued
16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

10,668
3,874
6,794
51,665
37,410
15,717
13,022
8,671
7,461
5,947
1,514

10,466
3,918
6,548
51,879
38,054
15,802
13,428
8,824
7,277
5,786
1,491

10,214
3,913
6,301
52,064
38,671
15,824
13,705
9,142
7,092
5,632
1,460

9,942
3,850
6,092
52,265
39,271
15,792
14,089
9,390
6,902
5,475
1,427

9,699
3,709
5,990
52,488
39,775
15,656
14,518
9,601
6,723
5,331
1,392

79.1
67.7
87.5
77.7
93.7
94.3
95.0
90.7
39.7
65.3
15.6

79.0
68.0
87.5
77.3
93.5
94.1
94.8
90.5
38.5
64.3
15.1

79.2
68.7
87.5
77.0
93.3
93.9
94.7
90.3
37.4
63.2
14.5

79.5
69.6
87.5
76.7
93.1
93.7
94.6
90.2
36.3
62.2
14.0

79.8
69.9
87.5
76.4
93.0
93.5
94.4
90.0
35.3
61.3
13.5

Women, 16 and over..................................

42,945

43,681

44,324

44,923

45,464

54.3

54.8

55.2

55.7

56.1

16 to 24 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ver................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

9,831
3,628
6,203
39,317
28,084
11,997
10,001
6,086
5,030
4,019
1,011

9,745
3,684
6,061
39,997
28,961
12,266
10,452
6,243
4,975
3,953
1,022

9,606
3,700
5,906
40,624
29,799
12,477
10,810
6,512
4,919
3,891
1,028

9,440
3,657
5,783
41,266
30,629
12,636
11,254
6,739
4,854
3,822
1,032

9,284
3,545
5,739
41,919
31,389
12,715
11,737
6,937
4,791
3,758
1,033

71.2
63.4
76.6
53.6
68.1
70.5
70.4
60.6
20.9
40.4
7.2

71.8
64.1
77.5
54.0
68.9
71.5
71.4
61.0
20.6
40.3
7.1

72.6
65.1
78.3
54.5
69.7
72.5
72.4
61.4
20.3
40.2
7.0

73.6
66.2
79.1
54.9
70.4
73.4
73.3
61.8
19.9
40.1
7.0

74.4
66.9
79.9
55.3
7T.2
74.3
74.2
62.1
19.6
40.0
6.9

Total, 16 and o v e r................................

14,520

14,832

15,134

15,446

15,733

62.5

62.5

62.5

62.6

62.7

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

7,276

7,382

7,484

7,593

7,691

69.5

69.0

68.6

68.3

68.0

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ver................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,492
454
1,038
6,822
4,981
2,301
1,594
1,086
803
644
159

1,467
455
1,012
6,927
5,119
2,355
1,657
1,107
796
640
156

1,441
457
984
7,027
5,250
2,398
1,722
1,130
793
640
153

1,422
459
963
7,134
5,384
2,434
1,795
1,155
787
638
149

1,400
449
951
7,242
5,512
2,457
1,875
1,180
779
632
147

58.3
38.8
74.7
73.4
86.9
88.1
88.8
81.9
37.0
59.9
14.5

57.1
37.9
73.9
73.0
86.5
87.8
88.5
81.3
36.0
58.9
13.9

56.2
37.4
73.2
72.5
86.2
87.5
88.3
80.9
35.2
58.2
13.3

55.6
37.4
72.4
72.2
85.9
87.2
88.0
80.5
34.4
57.4
12.6

55.1
37.0
71.7
71.8
85.6
86.9
87.7
80.1
33.5
56.4
12.2

Women, 16 and over..................................

7,244

7,450

7,650

7,853

8,042

56.7

57.1

57.5

57.9

58.3

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and o ve r............................................

1,522
468
1,054
6,776
5,034
2,406
1,683
945
688
553
135

1,521
476
1,045
6,974
5,232
2,489
1,772
971
697
558
139

1,520
485
1,035
7,165
5,425
2,564
1,862
999
705
564
141

1,520
490
1,030
7,363
5,619
2,629
1,962
1,028
714
570
144

1,516
486
1,030
7,556
5,809
2,681
2,068
1,000
717
572
145

52.8
37.9
64.0
58.7
71.2
75.3
73.0
60.0
24.4
43.1
8.8

52.7
37.7
64.3
59.2
71.8
76.1
73.7
60.0
24.3
43.0
8.8

52.8
37.9
64.7
59.6
72.4
77.0
74.4
60.1
24.0
42.9
8.7

53.1
38.3
65.1
60.0
72.9
77.8
75.1
60.2
23.8
42.9
8.7

53.4
38.4
65.4
60.3
73.5
78.5
75.8
60.2
23.5
42.7
8.5

B la c k a n d o th e r




147

C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Low growth path—Continued

Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 118,330 119,133 119,933
21,656 21,409 21,260
16-to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over............................................. 110,455 111,388 112,130
83,852 85,056 86,106
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r............................................. 12,822 12,668 12,567

120,781
21,118
112,826
87,163
12,500

121,684
21,001
113,553
88,242
12,441

65.3
73.2
65.5
81.7
26.1

65.3
73.4
65.5
81.8
25.7

65.3
73.6
65.5
82.0
25.3

65.4
73.6
65.5
82.1
25.1

65.4
73.6
65.6
82.2
24.8

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and over.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ..............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ..............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ver.............................................
55 to 6 4 ..............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

64,090
10,930
3,981
1,708
2,273
6,949
60,109
45,815
17,893
8,613
9,280
16,933
8,768
8,165
10,989
6,189
4,800
7,345
5,847
3,655
2,192
1,498
865
438
195

64,250
10,761
3,903
1,723
2,180
6,858
60,347
46,279
17,565
8,332
9,233
17,075
8,950
8,125
11,639
6,679
4,960
7,210
5,757
3,639
2,118
1,453
830
436
187

64,428
10,645
3,925
1,737
2,188
6,720
60,503
46,673
17,202
8,045
9,157
17,348
9,097
8,251
12,123
6,885
5,238
7,110
5,695
3,651
2,044
1,415
802
432
181

64,647
10,538
3,994
1,788
2,206
6,544
60,653
47,078
16,869
7,804
9,065
17,614
9,194
8,420
12,595
7,159
5,436
7,031
5,659
3,683
1,976
1,372
772
425
175

64,918
10,450
4,078
1,859
2,219
6,372
60,840
47,507
16,583
7,682
8,901
17,880
9,254
8,626
13,044
7,446
5,598
6,961
5,626
3,717
1,909
1,335
749
415
171

74.7
75.5
63.4
53.6
73.5
84.8
75.6
91.8
92.3
92.9
91.8
93.5
93.6
93.4
88.6
91.0
85.7
34.2
59.9
73.6
45.7
12.8
19.7
13.4
4.9

74.4
75.4
63.3
53.8
73.5
84.6
75.3
91.6
92.1
92.8
91.5
93.3
93.4
93.2
88.5
90.9
85.4
33.5
59.2
73.1
44.7
12.3
19.0
13.0
4.6

74.2
75.3
63.5
54.1
73.7
84.4
75.0
91.4
91.9
92.6
91.2
93.2
93.3
93.1
88.3
90.8
85.2
32.9
58.6
72.6
43.7
11.9
18.4
12.6
4.4

74.0
75.0
63.6
54.4
73.9
84.2
74.8
91.2
91.7
92.5
91.0
93.1
93.1
93.0
88.1
90.6
85.0
32.3
58.2
72.1
42.8
11.4
17.8
12.2
4.2

73.7
74.7
63.7
54.6
74.1
84.1
74.5
91.0
91.5
92.4
90.8
93.0
93.0
92.9
87.9
90.5
84.8
31.8
57.8
71.7
41.9
11.0
17.3
11.9
4.0

Women, 16 and over ..............................
16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and over.............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ..............................................
25 to 2 9 ................................. .........
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ..............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 54 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ve r.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

54,240
10,726
3,894
1,643
2,251
6,832
50,346
38,037
15,413
7,709
7,704
14,434
7,547
6,887
8,190
4,743
3,447
5,477
4,298
2,633
1,665
1,179
753
283
143

54,883
10,648
3,842
1,668
2,174
6,806
51,041
38,777
15,333
7,563
7,770
14,735
7,804
6,931
8,709
5,139
3,570
5,458
4,283
2,650
1,633
1,175
742
288
145

55,505
10,615
3,878
1,689
2,189
6,737
51,627
39,433
15,200
7,398
7,802
15,131
8,024
7,107
9,102
5,325
3,777
5,457
4,286
2,682
1,604
1,171
733
291
147

56,134
10,580
3,961
1,748
2,213
6,619
52,173
40,085
15,071
7,267
7,804
15,517
8,204
7,313
9,497
5,568
3,929
5,469
4,305
2,730
1,575
1,164
721
292
151

56,766
10,551
4,053
1,823
2,230
6,498
52,713
40,735
14,971
7,220
7,751
15,887
8,341
7,546
9,877
5,821
4,056
5,480
4,320
2,777
1,543
1,160
714
292
154

56.8
71.1
61.6
53.3
69.5
77.9
56.5
72.1
75.8
79.0
72.8
75.2
75.8
74.5
62.0
65.9
57.4
19.8
40.3
49.4
31.2
6.9
13.8
6.3
2.0

57.1
71.5
61.9
53.8
69.9
78.5
56.8
72.6
76.5
79.9
73.5
76.0
76.7
75.2
62.4
66.3
57.5
19.6
40.3
49.5
31.0
6.8
13.7
6.3
2.0

57.4
72.0
62.4
54.4
70.4
79.0
57.1
73.1
77.2
80.7
74.2
76.7
77.4
75.9
62.5
66.6
57.5
19.5
40.4
49.5
30.9
6.7
13.6
6.2
2.0

57.7
72.3
62.8
55.0
70.8
79.4
57.3
73.5
77.9
81.5
74.8
77.4
78.1
76.5
62.7
66.9
57.6
19.4
40.5
49.6
30.7
6.7
13.5
6.2
2.0

57.9
72.5
63.1
55.4
71.2
79.8
57.6
73.9
78.5
82.1
75.4
77.9
78.8
77.0
62.9
67.2
57.6
19.4
40.6
49.6
30.6
6.6
13.5
6.2
2.0

102,303 102,829 103,369

103,957

104,604

65.7

65.7

65.8

65.8

65.9

56,577

56,752

75.7

75.5

75.3

75.1

74.9

White
Total, 16 and o v e r...............................
Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................




56,297

56,363

56,449

148

C-1. Civilian iabor fore© and labor fo rce participation rates by age, seu, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Low growth path—Continued
16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 .................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 5 4 ................ :....................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

9,541
3,550
5,991
52,747
40,182
15,427
14,969
9,786
6,574
5,219
1,355

9,383
3,487
5,896
52,876
40,536
15,107
15,041
10,388
6,444
5,130
1,314

9,274
3,516
5,758
52,933
40,828
14,757
15,248
10,823
6,347
5,069
1,278

9,180
3,589
5,591
52,988
41,126
14,435
15,452
11,239
6,271
5,032
1,239

9,103
3,676
5,427
53,076
41,447
14,155
15,661
11,631
6,202
4,999
1,203

79.9
69.8
87.5
76.2
92.8
93.3
94.3
89.8
34.4
60.5
13.0

80.0
69.9
87.5
75.9
92.6
93.1
94.2
89.7
33.7
59.8
12.4

80.0
70.2
87.4
75.6
92.4
92.9
94.1
89.5
33.0
59.2
12.0

79.9
70.4
87.4
75.4
92.2
92.7
94.0
89.4
32.5
58.8
11.6

79.7
70.6
87.4
75.2
92.1
92.6
93.9
89.2
32.1
58.4
11.2

Women, 16 and over..................................

46,006

46,466

46,920

47,380

47,852

56.5

56.8

57.1

57.4

57.6

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 .................................................
65 and over............................................

9,204
3,419
5,785
42,587
32,048
12,694
12,252
7,102
4,754
3,723
1,031

9,119
3,374
5,745
43,092
32,621
12,594
12,458
7,569
4,726
3,701
1,025

9,080
3,413
5,667
43,507
33,123
12,447
12,766
7,910
4,717
3,697
1,020

9,043
3,493
5,550
43,887
33,619
12,307
13,066
8,246
4,718
3,708
1,010

9,013
3,583
5,430
44,269
34,118
12,193
13,360
8,565
4,721
3,717
1,004

75.1
67.3
80.6
55.8
71.8
75.1
75.0
62.3
19.4
40.0
6.8

75.7
67.7
81.3
56.1
72.3
75.8
75.8
62.7
19.2
40.0
6.7

76.2
68.3
81.9
56.4
72.8
76.5
76.6
62.9
19.1
40.1
6.6

76.6
68.7
82.5
56.6
73.2
77.2
77.2
63.1
19.0
40.2
6.5

76.9
69.1
83.0
56.9
73.6
77.8
77.9
63.3
18.9
40.3
6.4

Total, 16 and o v e r...............................

16,027

16,304

16,564

16,824

17,080

62.8

62.8

62.8

62.8

62.7

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

7,793

7,887

7,979

8,070

8,166

67.8

67.5

67.2

66.9

66.6

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 .................................................
45 to 5 4 .................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,389
431
958
7,362
5,633
2,466
1,964
i-1,203
771
628
143

1,378
416
962
7,471
5,743
2,458
2,034
1,251
766
627
139

1,371
409
962
7,570
5,845
2,445
2,100
1,300
763
626
137

1,358
405
953
7,665
5,952
2,434
2,162
1,356
760
627
133

1,347
402
945
7,764
6,060
2,428
2,219
1,413
759
627
132

54.7
36.2
71.1
71.4
85.4
86.7
87.6
79.7
32.7
55.7
11.6

54.3
35.4
70.5
71.1
85.1
86.4
87.3
79.3
32.0
55.0
11.1

53.8
34.9
69.9
70.8
84.8
86.2
87.1
79.0
31.4
54.3
10.7

53.2
34.4
69.4
70.4
84.5
85.9
87.0
78.7
30.8
53.7
10.2

52.5
33.7
68.9
70.2
84.3
85.7
86.8
78.5
30.3
53.4
9.9

Women, 16 and over..................................

8,234

8,417

8,585

8,754

8,914

58.6

59.0

59.2

59.4

59.5

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and over ................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 44 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ver................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,522
475
1,047
7,759
5,989
2,719
2,182
1,088
723
575
148

1,529
468
1,061
7,949
6,156
2,739
2,277
1,140
732
582
150

1,535
465
1,070
8,120
6,310
2,753
2,365
1,192
740
589
151

1,537
468
1,069
8,286
6,466
2,764
2,451
1,251
751
597
154

1,538
470
1,068
8,444
6,617
2,778
2,527
1,312
759
603
156

53.7
38.3
65.7
60.6
73.9
79.2
76.3
60.1
23.3
42.5
8.4

54.0
38.3
66.0
60.9
74.3
79.9
76.9
60.2
23.1
42.5
8.4

54.2
38.3
66.3
61.1
74.7
80.6
77.4
60.2
23.0
42.4
8.2

54.3
38.3
66.5
61.3
75.0
81.1
78.0
60.2
22.9
42.4
8.2

54.2
38.0
66.8
61.4
75.2
81.7
78.4
60.2
22.7
42.5
8.1

Black and other




149

sex,

C M . Clviliars lab or fo rc e and lab or fo rc e participation ra te s by age,

and race, 1982 to 2 000— C ontinued

(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Low growth path—Continued

16
20
25
55

Total, 16 and o v e r............................. 122,749 123,680 124,707
20,913 21,188 21,705
to 2 4 ..................................................
and o ve r............................................. 114,301 114,851 115,484
to 5 4 ............. ..................................... 89,283 89,852 90,015
and over............................................. 12,553 12,640 12,987

125,797
22,352
116,216
90,193
13,252

126,875
22,980
117,018
90,414
13,481

65.4
73.5
65.6
82.3
24.8

65.4
73.4
65.6
82.3
24.8

65.4
73.5
65.5
82.4
25.0

65.4
73.7
65.5
82.4
25.2

65.4
73.9
65.4
82.3
25.4

Men, 16 and o v e r....................................
16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 17 .........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ver.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ...........................................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 ...........................................
55 and o ver.............................................
55 to 6 4 ...............................................
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

65,322
10,375
4,231
1,946
2,285
6,144
61,091
47,927
16,313
7,691
8,622
18,114
9,324
8,790
13,500
7,810
5,690
7,020
5,722
3,853
1,869
1,298
726
406
166

65,629
10,497
4,421
2,043
2,378
6,076
61,208
48,117
15,945
7,603
8,342
18,266
9,291
8,975
13,906
7,771
6,135
7,015
5,754
3,909
1,845
1,261
703
395
163

66,040
10,746
4,618
2,121
2,497
6,128
61,422
48,102
15,530
7,471
8,059
18,356
9,231
9,125
14,216
7,893
6,323
7,192
5,964
4,125
1,839
1,228
682
387
159

66,511
11,062
4,796
2,173
2,623
6,266
61,715
48,129
15,118
7,292
7,826
18,381
9,153
9,228
14,630
8,054
6,576
7,320
6,123
4,275
1,848
1,197
662
378
157

67,017
11,374
4,935
2,207
2,728
6,439
62,082
48,210
14,821
7,112
7,709
18,297
9,003
9,294
15,092
8,253
6,839
7,433
6,259
4,398
1,861
1,174
646
373
155

73.6
74.4
63.8
54.8
74.3
83.9
74.3
90.9
91.4
92.3
90.6
92.8
92.9
92.8
87.8
90.4
84.6
31.7
57.5
71.1
41.2
10.7
16.9
11.6
3.8

73.4
74.2
64.0
55.0
74.5
83.8
74.1
90.7
91.2
92.2
90.4
92.7
92.8
92.7
87.6
90.2
84.5
31.5
57.2
70.9
40.5
10.3
16.6
11.4
3.6

73.2
74.1
64.3
55.2
74.8
83.8
73.9
90.6
91.1
92.1
90.2
92.7
92.7
92.7
87.4
90.1
84.3
31.8
57.1
70.6
40.0
10.1
16.3
11.2
3.5

73.0
74.2
64.6
55.3
75.0
83.8
73.8
90.4
91.0
92.0
90.1
92.6
92.6
92.6
87.3
90.0
84.2
31.9
57.0
70.4
39.6
9.8
16.0
11.0
3.4

72.9
74.4
64.8
55.4
75.2
83.8
73.7
90.3
90.9
91.9
90.0
92.5
92.5
92.6
87.2
90.0
84.1
32.0
56.9
70.2
39.3
9.6
15.8
10.9
3.3

Women, 16 and over ...............................
16 tp 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................
16 and 1 7 ........................................
18 and 1 9 ........................................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
20 and o ver.............................................
25 to 5 4 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ...............................................
25 to 2 9 ................... .......................
30 to 3 4 ...........................................
35 to 4 4 ...............................................
35 to 3 9 ...........................................
40 to 4 4 ...........................................
45 to 5 4 ...............................................
45 to 4 9 ...........................................
50 to 5 4 .................................. ........
55 and o ve r..................................... .......
55 to 6 4 ..................................... .........
55 to 5 9 ...........................................
60 to 6 4 ...........................................
65 and over.........................................
65 to 6 9 ...........................................
70 to 7 4 ...........................................
75 and over ....................................

57,427
10,538
4,217

58,051
10,691
4,408

58,667
10,959
4,605

59,858
11,606
4,922
2,194
2,728
6,684
54,936
42,204
13,886
6,901
6,985
16,777
8,394
8,383
11,541
6,566
4,975
6,048
4,939
3,344
1,595
1,109
657
284
168

58.2
72.6
63.5
55.9
71.7
80.2
57.8
74.2
79.1
82.7
75.9
78.5
79.4
77.5
63.1
67.5
57.7
19.4
40.7
49.7
30.5
6.5
13.4
6.2
2.0

58.3
72.7
63.8
56.3
72.0
80.6
57.9
74.4
79.7
83.3
76.4
78.9
79.9
78.0
63.1
67.7
57.7
19.5
40.8
49.7
30.4
6.4
13.3
6.2
2.0

58.4
73.0
64.2
56.6
72.3
80.9
58.0
74.6
80.1
83.7
76.8
79.3
80.3
78.3
63.2
67.9
57.7
19.8
41.0
49.7
30.2
6.3
13.3
6.2
2.0

58.5
73.2
64.6
56.9
72.7
81.2
58.1
74.7
80.5
84.1
77.2
79.7
80.7
78.6
63.2
68.0
57.8
20.1
41.1
49.7
30.2
6.3
13.3
6.2
2.0

58.6
73.5
64.9
57.1
72.9
81.5
58.1
74.8
80.7
84.4
77.4
79.9
80.9
78.9
63.2
68.1
57.8
20.2
41.1
49.8
30.1
6.2
13.2
6.2
2.0

1 ,9 1 7

2 ,0 1 7

2 ,1 0 0

2,300
6,321
53,210
41,356
14,868
7,280
7,588
16,225
8,476
7,749
10,263
6,135
4,128
5,533
4,382
2,848
1,534
1,151
702
292
157

2,391
6,283
53,643
41,735
14,664
7,253
7,411
16,487
8,518
7,969
10,584
6,136
4,448
5,625
4,485
2,948
1,537
1,140
690
290
160

2,505
6,354
54,062
41,913
14,397
7,177
7,220
16,671
8,519
8,152
10,845
6,255
4,590
5,795
4,667
3,118
1,549
1,128
679
287
162

59,286
11,290
4,785
2,156
2,629
6,505
54,501
42,064
14,109
7,045
7,064
16,778
8,489
8,289
11,177
6,398
4,779
5,932
4,813
3,241
1,572
1,119
668
285
166

White
Total, 16 and o v e r................................ 105,334 106,064 106,826

107,643

108,450

65.9

65.9

65.9

66.0

66.0

57,898

58,275

74.7

74.6

74.4

74.3

74.2

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................




56,986

57,250

57,547

150

C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force particpation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1996

1997

1998

1999

1996

2000

1997

1998

1999

2000

Low growth path—Continued
16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 .................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

9,048
3,824
5,224
53,162
41,749
13,881
15,842
12,026
6,189
5,023
1,166

9,173
4,004
5,169
53,246
41,844
13,521
15,945
12,378
6,233
5,105
1,128

9,413
4,190
5,223
53,357
41,740
13,119
15,990
12,631
6,394
5,300
1,094

9,708
4,358
5,350
53,540
41,686
12,725
15,981
12,980
6,504
5,441
1,063

9,998
4,489
5,509
53,786
41,677
12,435
15,873
13,369
6,600
5,560
1,040

79.5
70.8
87.4
75.0
92.0
92.5
93.8
89.2
31.8
58.0
10.8

79.4
71.0
87.4
74.9
91.8
92.4
93.7
88.9
31.7
57.8
10.4

79.4
71.3
87.4
74.7
91.7
92.3
93.7
88.8
32.0
57.8
10.1

79.5
71.5
87.4
74.5
91.6
92.2
93.6
88.7
32.2
57.6
9.9

79.6
71.8
87.4
74.4
91.5
92.1
93.6
88.6
32.3
57.5
9.7

Women, 16 and over..................................

48,348

48,814

49,279

49,745

50,175

57.9

58.1

58.2

58.3

58.4

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 .................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

9,008
3,736
5,272
44,612
34,584
12,071
13,626
8,887
4,756
3,764
992

9,153
3,912
5,241
44,902
34,830
11,861
13,819
9,150
4,831
3,850
981

9,404
4,094
5,310
45,185
34,895
11,597
13,945
9,353
4,980
4,013
967

9,705
4,259
5,446
45,486
34,945
11,319
14,004
9,622
5,095
4,139
956

9,993
4,386
5,607
45,789
34,993
11,102
13,971
9,920
5,189
4,244
945

77.1
69.5
83.5
57.1
74.0
78.4
78.4
63.6
19.0
40.4
6.3

77.3
69.9
83.9
57.2
74.2
79.0
78.9
63.5
19.1
40.5
6.2

77.5
70.2
84.3
57.3
74.4
79.5
79.3
63.6
19.4
40.7
6.1

77.8
70.6
84.6
57.4
74.6
79.8
79.6
63.7
19.7
40.8
6.1

78.1
70.9
84.9
57.5
74.6
80.1
79.9
63.8
19.8
40.9
6.0

Total, 16 and o v e r...............................

17,415

17,616

17,881

18,154

18,425

62.6

62.5

62.4

62.3

62.2

Men, 16 and o v e r.......................................

8,336

8,379

8,493

8,613

8,742

66.3

66.1'

65.8

65.6

65.5

16 to 2 4 .....................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 5 4 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ......................................... ;.......
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and o ve r................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,327
407
920
7,929
6,178
2,432
2,272
1,474
831
699
132

1,324
417
907
7,962
6,273
2,424
2,321
1,528
782
649
133

1,333
428
905
8,065
6,362
2,411
2,366
1,585
798
664
134

1,354
438
916
8,175
6,443
2,393
2,400
1,650
816
682
134

1,376
446
930
8,296
6,533
2,386
2,424
1,723
833
699
134

51.7
33.3
68.4
69.9
84.1
85.6
86.7
78.3
31.3
53.8
9.7

51.0
33.0
68.0
69.7
83.8
85.4
86.5
78.0
30.0
52.7
9.7

50.5
32.9
67.6
69.5
83.7
85.2
86.4
77.8
30.0
52.5
9.6

50.3
32.8
67.5
69.3
83.4
85.1
86.2
77.6
30.1
52.5
9.5

50.2
32.8
67.3
69.2
83.3
85.1
86.2
77.5
30.1
52.4
9.3

Women, 16 and over..................................

9,079

9,237

9,388

9,541

9,683

59.6

59.6

59.6

59.6

59.5

16 to 24 ......................................................
16 to 1 9 ..................................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................................
20 and o ve r................................................
25 to 54 .....................................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................................
55 and over ................................................
55 to 6 4 ..................................................
65 and over............................................

1,530
481
1,049
8,598
6,772
2,797
2,599
1,376
777
618
159

1,538
496
1,042
8,741
6,905
2,803
2,668
1,434
794
635
159

1,555
511
1,044
8,877
7,018
2,800
2,726
1,492
815
654
161

1,585
526
1,059
9,015
7,119
2,790
2,774
1,555
837
674
163

1,613
536
1,077
9,147
7,211
2,784
2,806
1,621
859
695
164

54.0
38.0
66.9
61.6
75.4
82.1
78.8
60.4
22.8
42.5
8.1

53.8
38.0
67.1
61.6
75.5
82.6
79.1
60.3
22.8
42.5
8.0

53.7
38.1
67.2
61.6
75.6
82.9
79.5
60.3
22.8
42.6
7.9

53.8
38.3
67.3
61.6
75.6
83.2
79.7
60.2
22.9
42.7
7.9

53.9
38.3
67.5
61.5
75.6
83.4
79.9
60.2
23.0
42.7
7.8

Black and other




151

■fr U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1982

0 - 3 6 1 - 2 7 0 (4904)

Employment
j f I VoLl | \3 §0 1 111Fl JH
Sl LI l ft 5 1 R 1 jsjfi§ i
p)
fl iQr
u
A
r 13
L^ m

□

Comprehensive labor
force and establishment
data. National, State,
and area figures
on employment,
unemployment, hours,
earnings, and labor
turnover.

arsd E a rn in g s

monthly periodical

P

Employment

Monthly and annual
data by industry, from
beginning date of each
series through 1978.

and Earnings,
United State©,
1®@®~7®

Bulletin 1312-11
hisiorical databook

Data for 1977-79
(revised) and 1980.

supscription $31.00
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Supplement t@
Employment
and Earning©,
States andT^rea©,
Data ter 1977=80

Supplement to
Employment and
Earnings, Revised
Establishment Data

Data for 1977-81
unadjusted.
Data for 1974-81
seasonally adjusted.

August 1981

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Supplement t@

One-year subscription
includes annual

953 pages.

Earnings, itemised
Establishment ©at®

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P rim ary S ources o f Data
fro m the Bureau o f Labor S ta tistics

E m p lo y m e n t a n d

single copy $4.75

GPO Stock No.
029-001 -02628-5

single copy $8.00

284 pages.

Bulletin 1370-15

Total order $
Where to
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U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402

The following BLS
regional offices will
expedite all other
orders.

For ordering information call (202) 783-3238.

1603 JFK Building
Boston, Mass. 02203

Subscriptions m ust be sent directly to
Superintendent of Documents.

Suite 3400
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New York, N.Y. 10036

P

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Atlanta, Ga. 30367

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64.106

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Street address
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Bureau ©f Labor S tatistics
[Regional O ffices

R e g io n SV
1371 P eachtree S treet, N.E.
A tla n ta , Ga. 30367
Phone: (404) 881-4418

R e g io n s V li a n d VSSi
911 W a ln u t S treet
Kansas C ity, M o. 64106
P hone: (816) 374-2481

R e g io n IS
S u ite 3400
1515 B ro a d w a y
N e w Y ork, N.Y. 10036
P hone: (212) 944-3121

R e g io n V
9th F lo o r
Federal O ffic e B u ild in g
230 S. D e a rb o rn S tre et
C h ic a g o , III. 60604
P hone: (312) 353-1880

R e g io n s IX a n d X
450 G o ld e n G ate A ven u e
B o x 36017
San F ra ncisco, C a lif. 94102
Phone: (415) 556-4678

R e g io n SIS
3535 M a rke t S treet
P.O. B o x 13309
P h ila d e lp h ia , Pa. 19101
P hone: (215) 596-1154

R e g io n V i
S e co n d F lo o r
555 G riffin S q ua re B u ild in g
Dallas, Tex. 75202
P hone: (214) 767-6971

R e g io n I
1603 JF K Federal B u ild in g
G o v e rn m e n t C e n te r
B o sto n , M ass. 02203
Phone: (617) 223-6761