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MONTHLY REVIEW o f C r e d i t a S e c o n d n d B u s i n e s s F e d e r a l R e s e r v e F ed era l E eserve B a n k , N ew Y o rk M o n e y M a r k e t in A p r i l Uncertainty concerning the European political situa tion has been reflected, during the past month, in a continued flow of capital and an accom panying flow of gold to this country, at a rate equaled only during the European crisis o f last September. Between M arch 15 and A p r il 26 the gold stock of the United States increased by $731,000,000 to $15,714,000,000. F or the first fou r months o f the year the increase in the gold stock was approxim ately $1,200,000,000, an amount about equal to the annual world production of gold, and about four-fifths as large as the average annual increase in this cou n try’s gold stock in the years 1934 to 1938, inclusive. The continued excess of merchandise exports from the United States over merchandise imports has been a factor in the heavy inflow of gold. A more im portant factor, however, has been the flow o f capital from Europe to the U nited States, which has represented, in part, withdrawals of A m erican commercial and other funds from Europe, but more largely transfers of European funds, seeking safety in the United States because of disturbed conditions abroad. Further evidence of a desire, on the part of foreigners, to hold their funds in dollars rather than in E uropean currencies has appeared in unusual demands fo r large denomination Federal Eeserve notes at this bank during the past two months. Substantial amounts of such notes have been shipped abroad and smaller amounts appar ently have been placed in safe deposit boxes fo r foreign accounts in New Y o rk banks. In M arch, ten of the p rin cipal New Y o rk C ity banks shipped $25,000,000 of United States currency abroad, the largest amount for any month since the reports were initiated in 1923, and in A p r il the amount appears to have been substantially larger. A t this bank, unusual withdrawals o f Federal Eeserve notes of $50 to $10,000 denominations, by New Y o rk C ity banks, amounted to well over $50,000,000 in A p ril. The effect of foreign demands for United States cur rency, on the amount of currency nom inally “ in circu lation ” in this D istrict, is indicated in the accom pany ing diagram, which compares changes in the amount of currency outstanding through this bank, as indicated by currency withdrawals and deposits, during the first four months of 1939 with corresponding changes in the two preceding years. A s this diagram shows, the C o n d i t i o n s D is t r ic t M a y 1, 1 9 39 unusual increase in the amount of currency paid out by this bank during the past two months follows a substan tial increase in the autum n of 1938, which apparently reflected the combined effect of greater domestic demands fo r currency incident to the sharp rise in business activity in that period, and unusual foreign demands for United States currency, induced by the crisis of last September and the subsequent continued political un settlement in Europe. Despite the large withdrawals of currency fo r foreign accounts in recent weeks, excess reserves of New Y o rk C ity member banks have reached successive new high levels in recent weeks. Eeserves of these banks increased nearly $600,000,000 in the five weeks ended A p r il 26, to a total of more than $5,000,000,000, due to the heavy inflow of foreign funds, and although there has been an accom panying increase in deposits and a conse quent increase in reserve requirements, excess reserves have risen $445,000,000 to more than $2,400,000,000. In other parts of the country also there has been a substantial increase in excess reserves of member banks in recent weeks, which appears to have been due chiefly to Government spending of a part of the large Treasury balances previously accumulated in the Federal Eeserve Banks. F o r all member banks, excess reserves rose $760,000,000 during the five week period, and on A p r il 26 amounted to $4,120,000,000. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Changes in Volume of Currency Outstanding through Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Weekly data cumulated from December 30, 1936) MONTHLY REVIEW, M A Y 1, 1939 34 M o n e y R ates Despite the disturbing effect on the security markets of the European situation, and of reduced activity in some lines of domestic business, related in part to the coal strike, prices o f Government bonds rose somewhat further during A p ril, and the average yield on long term issues declined to a new low level. Y ields on Treasury bills, however, rose slightly in A p ril, reflecting a technical market situation caused by cessation of the special de mands for Treasury bills, which in the three preceding months had resulted in prices for such securities which left little, i f any, yield. Other money rates remained unchanged. Money Rates in New York Apr. 30, 1938 Mar. 31, 1939 Apr. 29, 1939 Stock Exchange call loans.......................... Stock Exchange 90 day loans................... Prime commercial paper— 4-6 m onth ... Bills— 90 day unindorsed........................... Average yield on Treasury notes (3-5 yea r).............................................................. Average yield on Treasury bonds (more than 12 years to maturity or call date) Average rate on latest Treasury bill sale 91 day issue................................................. Federal Reserve Bank of New York re discount rate............................................... Federal Reserve Bank of New York buying rate for 90 day indorsed bills. 1 1 1 *1 % *1H % K* % 0 .8 2 0 .5 0 0 .4 8 2 .5 3 2 .3 1 2 .2 6 K’ l X-% 0 .0 3 7 1 t 0 .0 1 6 1 1 X X-5 A X X * Nominal t Average price slightly below par M e m b e r B a n k C r e d it W eek ly reports from member banks in 101 principal cities throughout the country showed a further increase in holdings of Government securities in A p ril, the prin cipal demand for Government bonds again being from the N ew Y o rk C ity banks. The Government bond hold ings of these banks increased $121,000,000 further du r ing the fou r weeks ended A p r il 26, making a total in crease since F eburary 15 of $551,000,000, of which only about $100,000,000 was accounted for by the ex change of Treasury notes for new Treasury bonds on M arch 15. Commercial and industrial loans of the New Y o rk banks also increased slightly in A p ril, but loans to security brokers and dealers dropped to the lowest levels since last October. R eporting member banks in other principal cities also showed a further increase in commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans during the first three weeks of A p ril. F o r all reporting banks the increase in such loans since early F ebruary appears to have been about as large as usual fo r the time of year, although it has been consider ably less than in the corresponding periods in 1936 and 1937 when there was a strong upw ard trend in business loans. D em and deposits of reporting N ew Y o rk C ity member banks rose to new high levels in A p ril, reflecting in large part the increase in the amount of funds held for foreign individuals and corporations. A t reporting member banks in other principal cities, also, demand deposits rose substantially in A p ril, but remained some what below the levels reached in January and early February. G o v e r n m e n t S e c u r it ie s Prices o f Treasury securities held relatively firm during the early part of A p r il when prices of stocks and second grade bonds were showing sizable declines because of apprehension over the European political situation. The average price of Treasury bonds of more than 12 year term to call date or m aturity, which had reached a high level near the end of March, declined only % of a point through the first eleven days of A p ril, as the development of somewhat lower prices attracted buying by banks and insurance companies. In the subsequent part of the month average prices rose more than one point to new high levels under the influence of continued bank and insurance company buying. A s a result of these comparatively narrow price movements, the average yield on Treasury bonds over 12 year term moved only from 2.29 per cent on M arch 30 to 2.34 per cent on A p r il 11, and then declined to a new low o f 2.25 per cent on A p r il 28. Treasury note yields moved within an even narrower range, from 0.48 per cent on March 30 to 0.52 per cent on A p r il 11, and then back to 0.47 per cent on A p r il 28. The average prices at which weekly Treasury bill issues were sold by the Treasury declined slightly in A p ril, as the special demands for Treasury bills, which had previously raised the prices bid fo r the new issues, diminished in A p ril. On the four weekly issues, each in the amount of $100,000,000, which replaced similar weekly maturities, the average rates moved from 0.016 per cent on the issue dated A p r il 5 to 0.025 per cent on the issue of A p r il 12, and then declined to 0.016 per cent on the issue of A p r il 26. B il l s a n d C o m m e r c ia l P a p e r The bill market continued to be inactive during A p ril, reflecting unwillingness of accepting banks and bankers to release for sale in the market any appreciable amount of bankers acceptances. A s for some time past, accepting banks preferred to release bills only to insti tutions from which bills in turn m ight be acquired. No change occurred in dealers’ quoted rates. The volume of bankers acceptances outstanding at the end of March showed a further small decrease, usual at this time of year, due chiefly to a decline in domestic warehouse credits. Declines in this class of acceptance and in export bills accounted for most of the reduction of $48,000,000 from a year ago in the total volume of bills outstanding. (Millions of dollars) Type of acceptance Export................................................................ Domestic shipment....................................... Domestic warehouse credit....................... Dollar exchange.............................................. Based on goods stored in or shipped be tween foreign countries......................... Total................................................. Mar. 31, 1938 Feb. 28, 1939 M ar. 31, 1939 91 75 8 55 2 87 57 10 38 2 87 58 9 33 2 62 54 56 293 248 245 The commercial paper market remained dull during A p ril, as dealers were unable to secure new paper in a volume adequate to take care of the bank investment demand. W h ile dealers continued to report the prevail ing rate for average grade prime four to six month com mercial paper at % to % per cent, a tendency toward lower levels was evident in that the % per cent rate applied to somewhat the larger proportion of the sales. Commercial paper houses had a total of $191,200,000 of FEDERAL RESERVE BAN K OF NEW YO R K paper outstanding at the end of March. This was 2 per cent less than a month before and 36 per cent less than a year ago. S e c u r ity M a r k e t s Reflecting increased apprehension over the E uropean situation and some disappointment over domestic busi ness developments, stock prices declined considerably further during the first week of A p ril, and on A p r il 8 showed a net decline of 22 per cent from the M arch 10 level which was close to the y e a r ’s high. A t the level reached on A p r il 8, the general average of stock prices was the lowest since June of last year, indicating the cancellation of nearly 70 per cent of the rise which occurred between March and November, 1938. D u rin g the first week of A p r il the volume of stock trading on the New Y o rk Stock Exchange increased moderately to a daily average of about 1,600,000 shares. On the whole it appears that purchases of domestic securities by foreign ers were in excess of sales during this period, and that the decline in stock prices and the moderate increase in volume of trading on the Exchange reflected chiefly transactions for A m erican account. D u rin g the second week of A p ril, stock prices began to recover somewhat, owing to the development o f a less apprehensive attitude concerning the European situa tion, and prices advanced sharply after the announce ment of President Roosevelt’s direct peace appeal to the German and Italian governments, with the result that the general average of prices showed a net advance o f* 9 per cent. In the succeeding part of A p r il, prices fluctuated irregularly in a very quiet market— in one fu ll business session the turnover was only 400,000 shares— and at the end of A p r il quotations averaged about 7 per cent above the m o n th ’s low. Like stock prices, medium and lower grade bond prices receded further in the first part of A p ril, and at an accelerated rate. D u rin g this period the decline in the average price of issues rated Baa by M o o d y ’s Investors Service averaged 3 % points, which together with the decline in the second h alf of M arch, made a total fa ll of 6 % points from the M arch peak. Subsequent recovery in B aa issues during A p r il averaged about 1 % points, but they remained more than 4 % points below their M arch PER CENT Average Yields on Aaa and Baa Corporation Bonds (Moody’ s Investors Service data) 35 highs. In highest grade corporate bonds, the declines were much smaller than in medium and lower grade bonds, and the rate of decline was slower than in March. The average price of A a a issues, after receding about 1 -/4 points in M arch, showed a further decline of only % point in the first part of A p r il and subsequently recovered about % point. The greater decline in prices of B aa issues than in A a a issues is indicated in the ac com panying diagram. This diagram shows that as a result of a rise to 5.26 per cent in the average yield on B aa bonds and o f a rise to only 3.04 per cent in the A a a bond yield, the spread between these two groups of bonds was enlarged to a m axim um of 2.22 per cent in A p r il, as compared with a m inim um spread in M arch of 1.84 per cent. I t remained considerably smaller, however, than a year ago, when it reached a m axim um of 3.66 per cent at the end of M arch. N e w F in a n c in g Six large corporate security issues, comprising com mon stock, preferred stock, debentures, notes, and m ort gage bonds, were marketed during A p r il in the aggre gate volume o f $236,000,000. Smaller issues brought the total for the month to about $250,000,000, almost as much as the $275,000,000 floated in the entire first quarter of this year. O f the $250,000,000, some $80,000,000 was for new capital purposes, principally fo r the Eastm an Kodak Com pany and the Texas Corporation, and $170,000,000 for refunding. In the first quarter, the average monthly volume of issues to provide new capital was only about $15,000,000. The large issues in A p r il w ere: $28,700,000 Eastm an K odak Com pany common stock offered to stockholders at $127.50 a share 40.000.000 Texas Corporation 3 per cent debentures of 1959 at 101 24.700.000 Commonwealth Edison Com pany 3 % per cent convertible debentures of 1958 offered to stockholders at 100 25.100.000 Consolidated Gas, Electric Light, and Power Com pany of Baltim ore 4 % per cent preferred stock offered at $112.50 to holders o f a preferred stock issue being refunded 52.500.000 Gatineau Power Com pany, of Canada, 3 % per cent first mortgage bonds o f 1969 at 9 8 1/4, in conjunction with an offering o f additional securities in Canada 50.000.000 National Steel Corporation 3 per cent first (collateral) mortgage bonds of 1965 at 99, and, by the same company 15.000.000 of % - 2 % per cent serial notes of 1940-49 at 100 The offering o f two o f the above issues was deferred for a few days on account o f the unsettled conditions in the security markets. Nevertheless, despite international tension, the low interest rates on some of the issues, and the fact that some were not rated as of the highest grade, the large issues as well as the several smaller ones were successfully sold. A lth ou gh at least one unusually large 36 MONTHLY REVIEW , M A Y 1, 1939 corporate issue is expected in M ay, the m o n th ’s flotations are unlikely to equal the volume of A p r il. M unicipal bond awards reported in A p r il amounted to about $75,000,000. The largest issue was $20,000,000 o f State of N ew Y o rk 1 % per cent bonds of 1940-79. A w arded at an interest cost of 1.74 per cent, the bonds were reoffered to yield from 0.20 to 1.85 per cent, depend ing upon m aturity. Strong demand continued during the month fo r high grade municipal obligations. B a la n c e o f P a y m e n t s o f th e U n it e d S ta te s A ccording to the prelim inary balance o f paym ents estimate fo r 1938 issued by the D epartm ent of Com merce, this co u n try ’s international transactions in m er chandise and services during the year resulted in an excess of receipts from abroad over paym ents to foreign countries of $965,000,000, as contrasted with a surplus of receipts of only $15,000,000 in the previous year. The 1938 surplus on current account was the largest for any year since 1 9 2 1 ; even during the late twenties, when foreign demand fo r Am erican goods was deriving sup port from heavy A m erican investments abroad, the current account surplus in no year attained so high a level, and since 1931, when the direction of long term capital movement was reversed, a substantial balance in favor of this country for goods and services had been shown in only one year prior to< 1938— 1934, when a surplus of $461,000,000 was recorded. The marked increase in this co u n try ’s current account surplus from 1937 to 1938 was due to the development late in 1937 of an exceptionally heavy surplus of mer chandise exports. The merchandise export surplus for 1938 amounted to $1,133,000,000, as compared with a surplus of $265 ,000 ,00 0 in 1937. The sharp rise in the export trade balance was partly attributable to larger agricultural yields in the U nited States, which led to increased exports and reduced imports of some leading farm products, but much more largely to a contraction in this co u n try ’s imports of basic materials, accom pany ing the sharp decline in domestic business activity. The comparatively moderate contraction in foreign demand fo r A m erican goods in the face of a sharp fa ll in our imports was a result both of the ability of a number of prim ary producing countries to maintain for a time their purchases abroad by drawing upon the gold and exchange reserves which they had accumulated in the previous few years, and of the intense m ilitary prepara tions in m ajor industrial countries, which operated towards sustaining both their internal activity and their requirements fo r imported materials and equipment. The contraction in incomes in the United States was reflected not only in reduced imports but also in a decline in travel expenditures abroad and in personal remit tances and institutional contributions to foreign coun tries. On the other hand, some decrease was shown dur ing 1938 in our net interest and dividend income as an international creditor country. Diverse tendencies were evident in movements of cap ital between the U nited States and foreign countries during 1938, reflecting wide changes in speculative an ticipations. The net movement o f long term capital to this country was the smallest for several years. D u rin g the first seven months of 1938, as in the final quarter of 1937, foreign balances in this country were drawn down, owing to a persistent belief in foreign centers that further devaluation of the dollar m ight be undertaken as a recovery measure. A s a result, the rate of gold inflow in this period was comparatively moderate despite the large net balance due this country on trade and service account. In the last five months of the year, however, the earlier outflow of foreign balances was more than offset by an extraordinarily heavy inward movement of funds from abroad, with the result that at the end of the year foreign balances in banks in the U nited States, at $2,004,000,000, were close to the high level reached in the summer of 1937. The flight of fu n ds to this country, superimposed upon a heavy current account surplus, led to an unprecedented rate of gold inflow in September and October, and for the year as a whole the inward movement was, with one exception, the largest on record. In addition to a net inward gold movement of $1,640,000,000, the United States acquired $224,000,000 of silver from abroad. (Net figures in millions of dollars; + indicates amounts payable by foreigners to U. S., and — indicates amounts payable by U. S. to foreigners on specified transactions.) I. Current Account Merchandise trade....................................................... Travel expenditures................................................... Personal remittances and institutional contri butions ......................................................................... Freight and shipping.................................................. Income from foreign investments.......................... Other current item s..................................................... Balance on current account............................ II. Capital Account Long term capital........................................................ Short term banking funds........................................ Currency m ovem ent................................................... Other reported capital movements....................... 1937 1938 +265 — 403 + 1 ,1 3 3 — 353 — 180 — 103 +330 +106 — — + + 155 40 275 105 + + 965 15 +522 +354 0 + 5 +124 +295 + 15 — 4 Balance on capital account............................ +881 +430 III. Silver shipments................................................................ — 83 — 224 IV. Gold shipments and earmarkings.............................. — 1,386 — 1,640 +573 +469 V. Other transactions and residual................................. G o ld M o v e m e n t The movement of gold to this country from abroad, which had increased markedly during the previous month under the impetus of European war fears, proceeded at an even more rapid rate during A p ril, and the m on th ’s inflow reached a figure which had been approached or exceeded in only three previous months— the month immediately follow ing dollar devaluation (F ebruary, 1934) and September and October, 1938. A ll classes of imports of gold at N ew Y o rk in A p r il totaled $575,000,000, of which $371,400,000 came from E ngland, $84,600,000 from B elgium , $55,500,000 from Switzer land, $44,300,000 from H olland, $7,000,000 from Canada, $4,600,000 from India, $4,500,000 from A rgen tina, and $2,100,000 from Colombia. On the W e st Coast, $5,600,000 was received from Japan, $4,200,000 from A ustralia, and $300,000 from China. A t the same time, however, there was a net increase of $115 ,000 ,00 0 in the amount of gold held under earmark for foreign account at the Federal Eeserve Banks, and at the close of the FEDERAL RESERVE BAN K OF NEW YO R K MILLIONS OF DOLLARS . Ijll, 1 ,1 1,11 l II 1r Jill 1934 1935 1936 1937 1936 1939 Monthly Change in United States Gold Stock (April, 1939 figure partly estimated) month gold held under earmark for foreign account at the Federal Reserve Banks amounted to approxim ately $770,000,000. The gold stock of the U nited States increased about $530,000,000 during the month, as compared with a gain of $385,000,000 during March and $624,000,000 last September, and reached a new high of approxim ately $15,790,000,000. F o r e ig n E x c h a n g e s Tension in Europe, during the month of A p ril, caused a heavy inflow of short term funds to New York, from abroad, and in turn a large inflow of gold to this country. Pressure on the principal European exchanges was intensified early in the month, when Italian troops occupied Albania. The market was afforded temporary respite, in the middle of the month, when President Roose velt ’s message was sent to Chancellor H itler and Premier Mussolini asking for a peace commitment. Later in the month there appeared to be some relaxation in the tension, awaiting Chancellor H it le r ’s speech to the Reichstag, on A p r il 28, in answer to President Roosevelt’s message. B ritish determination further to strengthen her m ilitary forces as evidenced in the budget estimates for the coming fiscal year and plans for British con scription, sim ilarly seemed to add impetus to a monthend covering movement in most currencies. Chancellor H itle r ’s speech itself caused some m omentary hesitation in the market, but subsequently the firmer tendency in continental currencies was resumed. The pound sterling was maintained at, or slightly above $4.68 during the month, and, in fact, reached $ 4 .6 8 % temporarily at the time of President Roosevelt’s message, but closed the month unchanged at $ 4 .6 8 % . Sales of sterling were particularly heavy immediately after the Easter holidays, which had witnessed the Italian occupation of A lban ia, but the pound was under pressure throughout the month, as a large movement of capital from London occurred. The French franc was steady fo r the greater part of 37 the month, despite the recurrent tension, and the French authorities are believed to have gained further amounts of gold and foreign exchange. Spot francs closed the m onth at $0.0264 1 5 /1 6 , compared with $ 0 .0 2 6 4 % at the end of March, and a slight improvement for the month took place in the franc rate in London. Guilders were subject to extremely heavy pressure in the early part of the month, although the rate never declined in this market below $ 0 .5 3 0 8 ; subsequently this currency rose from $0.5309 on A p r il 22 to $0.5351 at the month end, or the highest rate since near the end of February. Short covering, based partly upon a feeling that the European tension had lessened, was assigned as the principal reason fo r the improvement. Swiss francs similarly were under pressure over most of the month, but recovered at the month end to show a gain from $0.2244 at the end of M arch to $0.2247 at the end of A p ril. The pressure against the belga existing since m idFebruary was lifted at the end of A p ril, after the Liberal-Catholic Cabinet form ed on the basis of the Parliam entary elections of A p r il 2 sought, and subse quently obtained, special decree powers in financial m at ters, but specifically disavowed any intention to devalue the belga. E arlier in the month the estimated gold ex port point of the belga had been reduced from $0.1683 to $ 0 .1 6 8 0 % , as a result of the increase in war risk insur ance rates on gold shipped from the Continent. The m aturity of substantial short positions in the belga near the month end carried the spot rate from $0.1681 to $0.1701, the highest since September, 1938, and reduced the discount on three month forw ard belgas from the equivalent of 19 per cent per annum on A p r il 21 to 7 per cent per annum on A p r il 28, the smallest discount since early March. Forw ard rates for the other European currencies showed considerable weakness early in the month, although they firmed during the recovery of the last week, and the British authorities were reported to have been operating in forw ard sterling in an effort to pre vent further increases in the premium on forward dollars. In the London gold market the increase in war risk insurance rates did not particularly affect either the sterling price of gold or its dollar equivalent, since the B ritish Government put into operation a plan for reinsuring practically at the old rates war risk on shipments from the B ritish Isles. Canadian exchange was quoted close to % per cent discount during the greater part of the month. No significant rate changes occurred in Latin Am erican or F a r Eastern currencies. C e n tr a l B a n k R a te C h a n g e s In response to a heavy outflow of capital and result ing pressure against B elgian exchange, the discount rate of the National Bank of B elgium was advanced on A p ril 17 from 2 % to 4 per cent. On another recent occasion— the M ay, 1938 exchange crisis— the rate was raised to 4 per cent, but had been reduced in the interim. B u ild in g Some evidence of seasonal expansion in construction was apparent in the contract figures for M arch compiled 38 MONTHLY REVIEW, M A Y 1, 1939 by the F . W . Dodge Corporation, but the gain of 11 per cent over F ebruary in the daily rate of awards in 37 States was not as large as in most other years. I n creases in awards for the m ajor types of building con struction were offset in considerable part by decreases in the heavy engineering classifications. A 29 per cent gain from February to March in residential building con tracts raised the actual figure for this type of construc tion to the highest level since October, 1929, without the aid of any large contracts fo r United States H ousing A u th ority projects. F o r the first quarter of 1939, total construction contract awards increased 44 per cent over the corresponding period of 1938. "While all of the m ajor categories of construction shared in some measure in the general rise, the increase of 83 per cent in residential building was the most marked. A n increase of 25 per cent in awards for public works and utilities represents a somewhat smaller percentage gain than occurred in the calendar year 1938 as compared with 1937. The daily rate of construction contracts in the New Y ork and Northern New Jersey area during M arch showed an increase over the previous month of 29 per cent, a larger gain than for the country as a whole. A ll of the principal types of construction contributed to the aggregate gain in this district. Residential building, including the second unit of the large housing project by the M etropolitan L ife Insurance Com pany in New Y ork City, increased 34 per cent, and heavy engineering awards registered a gain of 58 per cent over the com paratively small February volume. D u rin g the first three months of 1939, total construction showed an in crease o f 28 per cent over the corresponding period in 1938, due entirely to large increases in residential and public purpose b u ild in g ; contracts for public works and public utilities combined were one-third lower. D u rin g the first three weeks of A p r il, construction contracts in the 37 States were awarded at a daily rate 9 per cent above the M arch average; the increase resulted principally from a large gain in heavy engineering awards, counterbalanced in some degree by a decline in residential building in this period. Compared with the corresponding period in A p r il, 1938, total contracts showed a 61 per cent increase, in which all of the m ajor types of construction participated. railways were both somewhat lower than in March after allowance fo r seasonal changes. On the other hand, cotton textile m ill activity is reported to have been maintained at around the relatively high level of recent months, whereas some slackening has often occurred at this period in past years. A lthough during most of the month the volume of cotton goods sold by the mills was below production, an increase in new business was noted during the final week. A fte r allowance fo r seasonal factors, little change was apparent in the general level of business activity between February and March. Moderate increases in the produc tion of nondurable goods and in distribution to con sumers were offset by a decline in the production of durable goods. On a daily average basis steel ingot production and automobile assemblies were higher than in February, but the increases were somewhat smaller than in most other years. Copper production was re duced. Cotton mill activity was not substantially changed, and approxim ately the usual seasonal movements char acterized bituminous coal production, shoe production, and the generation of electric power, while the m anu facture of tobacco products showed a contraseasonal increase, and operations at meat packing plants rose sub stantially after seasonal adjustm ent. Departm ent store and mail order house sales showed more than the usual seasonal expansion during March, and chain grocery store sales were also higher than in February although usually little change occurs. Sales of chain stores other than grocery, however, failed to advance as much as usual. Total shipments of freight by railway were at about the same level as in F ebruary after seasonal adjustm ent. New passenger car registrations increased more between February and M arch than last year, but less than in 1936 and 1937. The accom panying diagram shows the movements since January, 1935 of production of passenger cars for the domestic market and new passenger car registrations. W h ile the two series are not precisely comparable, differ ences between them reflect m ainly changes in dealer stocks of new cars. In the last quarter of 1938, follow ing a period of shutdowns for model changes, production THOUSANDS OF CARS P r o d u c tio n a n d T r a d e From prelim inary inform ation it appears that business activity in A p r il probably showed a slight decline from the level prevailing during February and March, after allowance for seasonal influences. Continued fear of war in E urope and the suspension of bituminous coal production in the A ppalachian area acted as depressing influences on the general business situation throughout the month. Steel production declined to a greater extent than usual between M arch and A p ril, and the weekly figures indicate that automobile production, on an aver age daily basis, was close to the March level, instead of increasing sharply as in most previous years. Owing to the expiration of the form er labor contract on M arch 31, and failure to reach an agreement upon a new one, the daily rate of bituminous coal production for tlie country as a whole dropped to approxim ately one-third of the March average. F o r the first three weeks of A p r il electric power production and the movement of freight over the Daily Average Production of Passenger Automobiles for Domestic Use and Registrations of New Passenger Cars (Bureau of Census data for production and R. L. Polk & Company data for registrations) FEDERAL RESERVE BAN K OF N EW YO R K rose sharply and reached the highest point since Ju ly, 1937. A s is usual, production was stepped up to a much higher level than retail sales in order to create and build up dealer stocks of new models. In January and February production was somewhat curtailed, and further accumulation of dealer stocks, in anticipation of the spring selling season, proceeded somewhat less rapidly. The total increase in stocks in the five m onths7 period October to February apparently was more than the accumulation a year ago and also somewhat more than that of the 1937 model season. In March, however, a sizable seasonal increase in registrations narrowed the gap between production and registrations, despite some rise in production. Last year registrations ran ahead of production from March through September, drawing down the previous accumulation of stocks, while in 1937 stocks continued to rise throughout the spring. (Adjusted for seasonal variations, for estimated long term trend, and where necessary for price changes) 1938 Mar. 1939 Jan. Feb. M ar. 67 80 79 85 80 87 Industrial Production Steel........................................................................ Copper................................................................... Passenger cars.................................................... Motor trucks...................................................... Bituminous coal................................................. Crude petroleum .............................................. Electric power.................................................... Cem ent................................................................. Cotton consumption........................................ W ool consumption r ........................................ Shoes r................................................................... Meat packing..................................................... Tobacco products.............................................. 40 65 43 55 62 92 84 53 76 r 54 99 84 92 69 86 84 82 77 88 91 57 94 104 116 84 87 63 95 106 109p 78 87 65 74 p 72 80 82 p 86 p 91p 71 95 114 p IlOp 90 91 93 74 92 74 92 p 74 p 91p Employment Employment, manufacturing, U. S ........... Employee hours, manufacturing, U. S. .. 88 66 Construction Residential building contracts..................... Nonresidential building and engineering contracts.......................................................... 28 47 48 44 45 69 67 53 73 63 86 63 79 75 71 74 79 71 80 66 78 72 88 71 81 79 102 86 90 51r 86 76 112r 97 91 82 85 76 112 93 94 79 86p 81p 115p 88p 98 p 76 p 62 61 60 60 38 36 35 36 Primary Distribution Car loadings, merchandise and misc......... Car loadings, other.......................................... Exports r.............................................................. Imports r.............................................................. Distribution to Consumer Department store sales, U. S....................... Department store sales, 2nd D istrict. . . . Chain grocery sales.......................................... Other chain store sales................................... Mail order house sales.................................... New passenger car registrations................. Velocity of Deposits f Velocity of demand deposits, outside New York City (1919-25 average = 100 per cent)................................................................... Velocity of demand deposits, New York City (1919-25 average = 100 per cent) Prices and Wagesf General price level (1913 average = 100 per cen t).......................................................... Cost of living (1913 average = 100 per cent)................................................................... Composite index of wages (1926 average = 100 per cent)............................................ p Preliminary. r Revised. 152 155 154 154p 149 147 146 146 110 111 111 t Not adjusted for trend. E m p lo y m e n t a n d P a y r o lls There was a further increase of about 200,000 workers in nonagricultural occupations during March, accord ing to the Secretary of Labor. This gain, which occurred largely through seasonal expansion in m anufacturing and in retail trade, was reported as slightly less than is usual between February and March. The number of persons 39 engaged in nonagricultural pursuits in M arch was approxim ately 360,000 higher than in the corresponding month last year, which is the most favorable year-to-year comparison since October, 1937. The number of workers in United States factories and their aggregate remuneration in March again rose some what less than seasonally. A small gain in employment brought actual factory working forces to the highest level since December, 1937, but after allowing for the usual seasonal influences, the index of employment declined slig h tly ; it remained within one point of the indexes for December, 1938 and January, 1939, however. W a g e disbursements increased about 1 % per cent in March to the highest level since November, 1937, but on a seasonally adjusted basis this b a n k ’s index of factory payrolls receded to a somewhat lower level than in the previous three months. W o rk in g forces in nondurable goods industries showed about the usual expansion in M arch, but em ployment in durable goods factories in creased considerably less than is customary at this time of year, reflecting prim arily decreases in the number of workers at automobile plants, and lumber and lumber products mills. A m on g nonm anufacturing industries, somewhat more than the usual seasonal increase occurred in employment in retail trade and private building construction. The gain of 2 y 2 per cent in the number of workers in retail establishments exceeded the average M arch increases for the last ten years. Em ploym ent and payrolls in New Y o rk State factories showed about the usual seasonal increases during M a r c h ; em ployment advanced approxim ately 1 per cent and payrolls 3 y 2 per cent. Increases in the number o f work ers were quite gen eral; the largest gains occurred in the stone, clay, and glass products, and in m illinery indus tries. Compared with March, 1938, em ployment was 7 per cent higher and payrolls 1 2 y 2 per cent larger. C o m m o d i t y P r ic e s Prices of several im portant commodities showed siz able fluctuations during A p ril, but the general average of wholesale prices was little changed. One of the most marked changes was in the raw silk quotation which, at $ 2 .5 8 % a pound on A p r il 19, established a nine year high. Prices in New Y o rk reflected strong and active prim ary markets and a tight position in the spot market. B uyer resistance to the higher prices appeared, however, and spot silk subsequently receded to $ 2 A 7 y 2 a pound, compared with $ 2 .2 0 % at the end of March. Cotton prices fluctuated in response to various legislative proposals affecting this commodity. A fte r touching a new low for the year at the middle of the month, prices rose follow ing announcement of the latest cotton export subsidy pro posal, and the average quotation for cotton at 10 Southern markets at the close of A p r il was 8.74 cents a pound, up 26 points from the end of M arch. The price in foreign markets, on the other hand, declined, as the indicated subsidy of 2 cents a pound was interpreted as placing an upper lim it on prices of cotton abroad. Despite a lack of export demand, cash corn at Chicago advanced during the month, owing in part to small re ceipts in prim ary markets, and also to steadiness in the Buenos A ires market. W h ea t prices were firm although 40 MONTHLY REVIEW, M AY 1, 1939 th e A p ril 1 G o v ern m e n t cro p re p o rt in d ic a te d a w in te r cro p of 549,000,000 b ushels, s lig h tly la rg e r th a n p re v io u s p riv a te estim ates. T he effect on th e m a rk e t of th e fa v o r ab le cro p p ro sp e c ts, to g e th e r w ith th e ex isten ce of la rg e re m a in in g su p p lie s o f old w h eat, a p p e a rs to h av e been offset b y E u ro p e a n b u y in g a n d re p o rts of d a m ag e to th e w in te r cro p d u rin g A p ril. O n th e o th e r h a n d , seasonal g a in s in th e m a rk e tin g s b ro u g h t a b o u t a re d u c tio n in p ric e s o f livestock. O n A p ril 27 th e av e ra g e p ric e of hogs a t C hicag o d e clin ed to a new low since D ecem ber, 1934 a t $6.85 a h u n d re d w e ig h t; th e a v erag e q u o ta tio n fo r steers closed A p ril a t $10.21 a h u n d re d w e ig h t, 29 cen ts below th e e n d of M arch . A re d u c tio n to a new low since A u g u st, 1934 of 9 cen ts a p o u n d o c c u rre d a ro u n d th e m id d le of A p ril in th e sp o t p ric e of hides, b u t th e q u o ta tio n su b se q u e n tly a d v a n c e d to 9 % cents. T h e re w as a d ecrease of ab o u t 2 cen ts a p o u n d in d o m estic wool p rices. M ix ed ch an g es w ere also a p p a r e n t in m e ta l p rices. S p o t tin ad v a n c e d to a new h ig h since O ctober, 1937 o f 4 9 1/4 ce n ts a p o u n d , refle c tin g in p a r t in c re ased w a r risk in s u ra n c e ra te s, low su p p lie s, a n d co n su m er b u y in g in a n tic ip a tio n of a f u r th e r p ric e ad v an ce. C o p p e r p ric e s w ere re d u c e d b y a succession o f ste p s fro m 11% cen ts to 10 cen ts a p o u n d , th e low est cu sto m s m e lte rs ’ q u o ta tio n sin ce J u ly , 1938, b u t th e te n d e n c y w as r e v e rsed on A p ril 26 a n d a n ac tiv e d e m a n d w as re p o rte d a t 1 0 % -1 0 % cen ts a p o u n d . S c ra p steel p ric e s also d e clin ed d u rin g th e m o n th . T he q u o ta tio n a t P itts b u rg h re a c h e d $14.50 a to n , $ 1 .37% below th e e n d of M a rc h ; a t C hicago th e p ric e w as re d u c e d $1.50 to $12.75 a ton. F o re ig n T r a d e T h is c o u n tr y ’s fo re ig n tra d e in c re a se d m ore th a n seaso n a lly d u rin g M a r c h ; e x p o rts w ere v a lu e d a t $268,000,000 a n d im p o rts a t $190,000,000, th e la tte r re p re s e n tin g th e h ig h e st im p o rt to ta l fo r a n y m o n th since D ecem ber, 1937. C o m p a re d w ith M arch , 1938, im p o rts show ed a n in c re ase of 10 p e r cen t, w h ile e x p o rts w ere a b o u t 3 p e r c e n t lo w er in v alu e. T h e excess of e x p o rts o f $78,000,000, a lth o u g h la rg e r th a n in th e tw o p re c e d in g m o n th s, w as sm a lle r th a n in M a rc h a y e a r ago, or th a n in m o st o th e r m o n th s o f 1938. In c re a se s o ver M arch , 1938 w ere g e n e ra l am o n g th e m a jo r g ro u p s o f im p o rts, w ith th e ex cep tio n o f m a n u fa c tu re d fo o d stu ffs, w h ich d e clin ed 14 p e r cen t. G ain s in o th e r ty p e s of im p o rts w ere s u b s ta n tia l, ra n g in g fro m 11 p e r c e n t fo r fin ish ed m a n u fa c tu re s to 21 p e r c e n t fo r se m im a n u fa c tu re s. I n th e ca te g o ry o f w h o lly a n d p a rtly fin ished p ro d u c ts, im p o rts of b u rla p , u n s e t d iam o n d s, n e w s p rin t p a p e r, n ickel, a n d tin show ed m a rk e d in creases. A m o n g th e c ru d e m a te ria ls, re c e ip ts o f fo re ig n w ool w ere seven tim es th e sm all volu m e of a y e a r ago, a n d im p o rts of h id es a n d sk in s in c re a se d th re e fo ld . M a te ria l g a in s also o c c u rre d in im p o rts of c ru d e ru b b e r, w o o d p u lp , coffee, cocoa, a n d tea. O n th e o th e r h a n d , re c e ip ts of su g a r, in e d ib le ex p re ssed oils, tobacco, a n d silk w ere c o n sid erab ly sm aller in volu m e th a n a y e a r ago. A m o n g th e ex p o rts, a declin e fro m M arch , 1938 of 19 p e r ce n t in p ro d u c ts o f a g ric u ltu ra l o rig in w as re s p o n sible fo r th e s lig h t d ecrease in a g g re g a te v a lu e ; n o n a g ric u ltu ra l e x p o rts re g is te re d a n in c re ase of 3 p e r cent. S h ip m e n ts o f ra w co tto n show ed a re d u c tio n of a b o u t 25 p e r c e n t in q u a n tity a n d v a lu e fro m a y e a r ago. E x p o rts o f w h e a t w ere alm o st e q u al to M arch of la s t y e a r in q u a n tity , b u t n e a rly 50 p e r c e n t lo w er in v alu e, ow ing to th e p ric e d ecline, a n d ev en la rg e r re la tiv e decreases o c c u rre d in c o rn e x p o rts. S h ip m e n ts o f c ru d e p e tro le u m also d e clin ed in volu m e a n d v a lu e fro m a y e a r ago. O n th e o th e r h a n d , e x p o rts o f a ir c r a f t in c re ased 34 p e r cen t, a n d s u b s ta n tia l g a in s o v er M arch , 1938 o c c u rre d in e x p o rts of in d u s tria l m a c h in e ry , refin ed p e tro le u m p ro d u c ts, au to m o b iles, a n d u n m a n u fa c tu re d tobacco. D e p a rtm e n t S to re T ra d e F o r th e th re e w eeks en d ed A p ril 22, sales of th e r e p o r t in g d e p a rtm e n t sto res in th is D is tric t w ere a b o u t 4 % p e r c e n t less th a n in th e c o rre sp o n d in g p e rio d of 1938. H o w ev er, th is p e rio d in c lu d es o n ly one w eek p re c e d in g E a s te r in 1939, w h ile in th e 1938 p e rio d tw o o f th e w eeks p re c e d e d E a s te r. C o m p a rin g th e tw o w eeks p re c e d in g E a s te r in each case, sales th is y e a r w ere a b o u t th e sam e as la s t y e a r. E v e n a f te r m a k in g allo w an ce fo r th e e a rlie r E a s te r th is y e a r, how ever, it a p p e a rs th a t A p ril sales h av e fa ile d to ad v an c e as m u c h as u s u a l ov er th e M arch level. I n M arch , to ta l sales of th e r e p o rtin g d e p a rtm e n t sto res in th is D is tric t w ere 4 p e r c e n t h ig h e r th a n la s t y e a r, th e first y e a r-to -y e a r in c re ase in a b o u t a y e a r a n d a h a lf. W h ile th e im p ro v e m e n t in th e y e a r-to -y e a r com p a ris o n w as ac co u n ted fo r in p a r t b y th e d e c lin in g te n d e n c y in sales la s t y e a r a n d b y th e so m ew h at e a rlie r d a te of E a s te r th is y e a r, th e ra te o f sales in c re a se d co n sid e ra b ly m ore th a n seaso n ally b etw een F e b ru a r y a n d M arch . Percentage change March, 1939 compared with March, 1938 Locality Net sales New York and Brooklyn................................ Buffalo................................................................. Rochester............................................................ + 3.1 + 2.2 0 8.0 Elsewhere........................................................... Northern New York State......................... Southern New York State......................... Central New York State............................. Hudson River Valley District................... Westchester and Stamford......................... Niagara Falls................................................. + 1 3 .2 + + 1 1 .9 + 5 .8 — + 9 .9 + 4 .4 + 9.1 + 4 .9 — 3 .2 All department stores............................. + 4 .0 Apparel stores............................................ + Northern New Jersey...................................... 21.6 1.8 Per cent of accounts outstanding February 28 collected in March Stock on hand end of month 1938 1939 — — — — — + + 9 .4 0 .9 49.9 46.6 56.1 40.8 42.8 37.6 33.2 48.8 46.3 57.8 41.8 40.9 37.6 35.4 — 6.0 4 7.0 46.1 + 1.4 41.3 41.0 7 .5 5 .9 7.3 5 .2 1.6 Department Store Sales and Stocks, Second Federal Reserve District (1923-25 average = 100) 1939 1938 Mar. Jan. Feb. Mar. Sales, unadjusted.............................................. Sales, seasonally adjusted............................... 76r 90r 71 86 80 91 Stocks, unadjusted............................................ Stocks, seasonally adjusted............................ 83r 83r 68 86 68 72 77 78 78 rRevised. 75 FED ERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK MONTHLY REVIEW , M AY 1, 1939 POINTS IN TOTAL INDEX Business C on ditions in the U n ited States 140 (S u m m a rized b y the B o a r d o f G ov ern ors o f the F e d e r a l R eserve S y ste m ) N A P R I L m a n u fa c tu r in g p ro d u c tio n w as m a in ta in ed at a b o u t the sam e rate as in M a rch b u t m in eral p r o d u c tio n d eclin ed , re fle c tin g a sharp red u ction in ou tp u t o f b itu m in ou s c o a l p e n d in g settlem en t o f n e g o tia tio n s betw een op era tors an d m iners. In th e first q u arter o f th is y ea r in d u s tria l ou tp u t, a fte r a r a p id rise in the la tte r h a lf o f 1938, in crea sed less th an is u sual at th is season. I P r o d u c t io n 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 Index o f Physical V olu m e o f M an u factu rin g Pro duction, A d ju sted for Seasonal Variation ( 1 9 2 3 2 5 average = 100 per ce n t; durable and non durable groups expressed in term s o f points in total index) PER C E N T 10095 90 85 80 75 70 65 6 0 ________________________________________________________ 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 Index o f W h o le sa le P rices Com piled b y th e U nited S tates B ureau o f Labor S tatistics ( 1 9 2 6 = 1 0 0 per cen t) BIL IO SARS O FLD ON LL V o lu m e o f in d u s tria l p r o d u c tio n sh ow ed litt le ch an g e in M a rch an d the B o a r d ’ s season ally a d ju s te d in d e x rem a in ed a t 98 p er cen t o f the 1923-1925 a v era g e. T h e in d e x f o r the first q u arter a v era g ed 99, com p a red w ith 101 in the fin al q u arter o f la st y ear. A c t iv it y at steel m ills in M a rch w as a t 54 p er c e n t o f c a p a c ity , a slig h tly h ig h er lev el than in J a n u a ry and F e b r u a r y . A u to m o b ile p ro d u c tio n in crea sed less th an s e a s o n a lly ; r e ta il sales o f cars con tin u ed to flu ctu a te arou n d a lev el co n sid e r a b ly h ig h er th an la st y e a r b u t low er than in 1936 an d 1937. D e a le r s 7 stock s o f new cars b e g a n to d eclin e in M arch , fo llo w in g an in crease to a sea son a lly h ig h level. A c t iv it y in the m a ch in ery in d u stries in creased fu rth e r in M arch , c o n tin u in g the rise th a t b e g a n la st sum m er. L u m b e r p ro d u c tio n in crea sed less than sea son a lly fr o m the r e la tiv ely low level o f other recen t m onths. P r o d u c tio n o f n on d u ra b le g o o d s in M a rch con tin u ed at a b o u t the level th a t has p rev a iled sin ce la st autum n. I n the w oolen tex tile in d u s try a c t iv it y sh ow ed a d ecrea se fr o m the h ig h lev el o f recen t m onths, w h ile a t c o tto n m ills an d shoe fa c t o r ie s ou tp u t w as m a in ta in ed in la rg e volum e. A t m ea t p a c k in g establish m en ts an d su ga r refineries in creases in a c tiv ity w ere rep orted , fo llo w in g ea rlier d eclin es. V a lu e o f co n stru ctio n co n tra ct aw a rd s in creased in M a rch , a c c o r d in g to F . W . D o d g e C orp o ra tio n figu res, r e fle c tin g a season al rise in resid en tia l an d other p riv a te b u ild in g . A w a rd s f o r p u b lic p r o je c ts sh ow ed litt le ch an g e. I n the first three w eeks o f A p r il b itu m in ou s c o a l p ro d u c tio n d eclin ed to a lo w lev el as m ost m ines w ere c losed , p e n d in g th e settlem en t o f b ien n ia l c o n tra ct n e g o tia tio n s b etw een m in e o p era tors an d w ork ers. S teel in g o t p r o d u ctio n w as red u ced som ew hat, a v e r a g in g a b ou t 52 p e r cen t o f ca p a c ity , an d a u tom ob ile p ro d u c tio n show ed little ch a n g e fr o m the rate reach ed in the la tter p a r t o f M arch . D is t r ib u t io n 5.0 S ales a t d ep a rtm en t stores an d m a il o rd e r houses in crea sed som ew hat m ore than season ally in M arch , w h ile v a r ie ty store sales sh ow ed a b o u t the usual rise. F o r the first q u arter as a w h ole re ta il sales w ere in a b o u t th e sam e v olu m e as in the fin al qu arter o f 1938, a fte r a llow a n ce f o r season al ch an ges. F r e ig h t ca r lo a d in g s sh ow ed less than the cu stom a ry a d v a n ce fr o m F e b r u a r y t o M a r ch as lo a d in g s o f c o a l d e clin ed an d sh ipm ents o f m iscella n eou s f r e ig h t in crea sed less than season ally . I n the first h a lf o f A p r il there w as a m arked d ecrease in fr e ig h t tra ffic, r e fle c tin g in la r g e p a r t a sh arp d e clin e in co a l shipm ents. C o m m o d i t y P r ic e s ■NE^ORJ^n^ 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 W ed n esd a y F igu res o f E stim ated E x ce ss R eserves of M em ber B anks (L a te s t figures are for A p ril 1 9 ) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS P ric e s o f steel scra p , co p p e r, hides, an d som e other in d u s tria l ra w m aterials d eclin ed fr o m the m id d le o f M a rch to the th ird w eek o f A p r il, an d th ere w ere decreases also in p rices o f liv e sto c k an d d a ir y p rod u cts. S ilk p ric e s rose c o n s id era b ly . T h e g en era l lev el o f w h olesale p rices, as m easured b y the in d ex o f the B u rea u o f L a b o r S ta tistics, d eclin ed to 76 p e r c en t o f th e 1926 av erag e as com p a red w ith 77 in the m id d le o f M a rch and a t the b e g in n in g o f th e y ear. B a n k C r e d it R e fle c tin g con tin u ed h ea v y g o ld im p o rts an d T rea su ry d isbu rsem en ts fr o m its b a la n ces at the R eserve B an ks, m em ber b a n k reserves an d d ep osits in creased sh a rp ly d u r in g th e fo u r weeks end ed A p r il 19. E x cess reserves rose to a r ecord h ig h le v e l o f $4 ,000,000,000. T o ta l loan s an d in vestm en ts at ba n ks in 101 le a d in g c ities, w h ich h a d sh ow n litt le ch a n g e d u r in g M a rch , in creased som e w h at d u r in g the first three w eeks o f A p r il, re fle c tin g p r in c ip a lly con tin u ed p u rch ases o f U n ite d S ta tes G overn m en t o b lig a tio n s b y N e w Y o r k C ity banks. L oa n s to brok ers an d dealers in secu rities d eclin ed . M oney R ates Wednesday Figures for Reporting Member Banks in 101 Leading Cities (Latest figures are for April 19) and S e c u r it y P r ic e s P ric e s o f G overn m en t b on d s an d o f oth er b on d s o f h ig h est g ra d es c o n tin u ed firm a t h ig h levels d u r in g M a rch an d th e first three w eeks o f A p ril, w h ile p rice s o f the low er g ra d e c o rp o r a te b on d s an d o f c o rp o ra te stock s d eclin ed . T h e a v era g e d isco u n t ra te on n ew issues o f 91 d a y T rea su ry bills con tin u ed a t a lo w lev el an d oth er op en m ark et rates rem a in ed u n ch an ged .
@FedFRASER