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MONTHLY REVIEW o Ce it a dB s e s Cn itio s f r d n uin s o d n S e c o n d F e d e r a l R e s e r v e D is tr ic t F ed eral E eserve B an k, N ew Y ork M o n e y M a r k e t in A p ril During April developments in the money market were conditioned by the market’s anticipation of the possible results of the substantial reduction in excess reserves of member banks, which is to be brought about, on May first, by the second of two increases in reserve requirements announced by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on January 30th. A t the time of this announcement it was estimated that excess reserves of all member banks of the country would be reduced to about $500,000,000 on May first. In recent weeks this estimate has had to be revised upward due to the combined effect of a further increase in the amount of member banks’ reserves, and of a somewhat smaller demand for reserve funds than might have been anticipated early in the year. It now appears that member banks of the country will still have approximately $850,000,000 of excess reserves on May first, a larger amount of excess reserves than was held by member banks at any time prior to the end of 1933. Excess reserves of the principal New York City mem ber banks, which had fluctuated between about $335,000,000 and $480,000,000 during March, rose to between $530,000,00 and $585,000,000 in the latter part of April, and, for the country as a whole, excess reserves of member Usual Seasonal Variations M ay 1, 1937 banks rose from between $1,270,000,000 and $1,450,000,000 in March to above $1,600,000,000 in the latter part of April. One important factor in the April increase in bank reserves was Treasury disbursements, which reduced Government balances in the Reserve Banks from above $300,000,000 at the end of March to about $100,000,000 in the second half of April. The other principal factor in the increase in member bank reserves during April was Federal Reserve Bank purchases of Government securities, which were made in accordance with the state ment issued by the Federal Open Market Committee on April 4, as follows: W i t h a v ie w ( 1 ) to e x e r t in g its in flu e n c e t o w a r d o r d e r ly c o n d itio n s in th e m o n e y m a r k e t a n d ( 2 ) to f a c i li t a t i n g th e o r d e r ly a d j u s t m e n t o f m e m b e r b a n k s t o t h e in c r e a s e d r e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n ts e ffe c tiv e M a y 1, 1 9 3 7 , th e O p e n M a r k e t C o m m itte e o f th e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m is p r e p a r e d t o m a k e o p e n m a r k e t p u r c h a s e s o f U n i t e d S t a t e s G o v e r n m e n t s e c u r it ie s f o r t h e a c c o u n t o f F e d e r a l r e s e r v e b a n k s i n s u c h a m o u n t s a n d a t s u c h t im e s as m a y b e d e s ir a b l e . T h i s p u r p o s e is i n c o n f o r m i t y w i t h t h e p o l i c y a n n o u n c e d b y th e B o a r d o f G o v e rn o rs o f th e F e d e r a l R e s e rv e S y s t e m i n i t s s t a t e m e n t o n J a n u a r y 3 0 , 1 9 3 7 , w h ic h d e c la r e d , w it h r e fe r e n c e to th e in c re a s e in re s e rv e r e q u ir e m e n ts , t h a t b y t h is a c t i o n t h e S y s t e m w o u l d b e p l a c e d i n a p o s it io n w h e r e su c h r e d u c t i o n o r e x p a n s io n o f m e m b e r b a n k r e s e r v e s a s m a y b e deem ed in th e p u b lic m a r k e t o p e ra tio n s . in te re s t m ay be e ffe c te d th ro u g h open 34 MONTHLY REVIEW, M AY 1, 1937 Between April 4 and April 28 the Reserve Banks pur chased a total of $96,000,000 of Government securities in the open market. Two factors which, in recent months, have reduced the demand for reserve funds below earlier expectations, are indicated in the preceding diagrams. During 1935 and 1936 the volume of currency in circulation, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, had shown a steady rise, which was accelerated temporarily in June of last year by the additional currency demand connected with the cashing of veterans ’ adjusted service bonds. In January of this year the trend of currency circulation still appeared to be upward, but during the past three months, as the first diagram indicates, the volume of currency outstanding, adjusted for seasonal variations, has shown practically no further increase. Member bank reserves, therefore, have not been subject, since January, to any further drain on account of unseasonal currency demands. The other principal factor in the reduced demand for reserve funds in recent months has been a moderate recession since the beginning of this year in the volume of member bank credit outstanding, following substan tial increases in each of the past three years. The de mand for commercial and industrial loans has increased further in recent months and the volume of such loans at weekly reporting member banks now shows an increase of more than 25 per cent compared with a year ago. Loans on securities, however, have shown practically no increase during the past year, and holdings of Govern ment securities have shown a substantial reduction, which for the first four months of this year has exceeded the rise in commercial loans. Thus, one of the principal factors in the expansion in member bank deposits during the past few years was not present during this period. The inflow of funds from abroad, and accompanying gold imports, exerted an influence toward expansion of bank deposits that has, to a considerable extent, counteracted the effect of the moderate decline in the volume of bank credit outstanding. But aside from the effect of the March 1 increase in the percentages of reserves which member banks are required to maintain against their deposits, the reserve requirements of member banks have shown a slight decrease since the beginning of this year. On the basis of the reserve position of member banks near the end of April, it would appear that excess reserves remaining after May 1 will be widely distributed. During March the New York City member banks had consider ably smaller excess reserves, in proportion to their reserve requirements, than did all other member banks, but late in April the percentage of excess reserves in New York was only slightly less than the average for all other mem ber banks. Further withdrawals of out-of-town bank funds, for the purpose of adjusting reserve positions, of course, would tend to leave the New York City banks with smaller proportionate amounts of excess reserves than the average for other member banks. It appeared, as May 1 approached, however, that the volume of such further withdrawals would probably be relatively small. Many banks outside New York which, at the time of the January 30 announcement of two prospective increases in reserve requirements, had insufficient reserves to meet these increases, apparently anticipated their full needs, and adjusted their position to cover not only the March 1 increase, but also the final increase on May 1. M oney R ates Despite the increase in member bank excess reserves in April, there was no material change in money rates in the New York market. Rates of new issues of Treasury bills rose somewhat further, but other short term money rates remained practically unchanged during April. A p ril 30, 1936 M a r . 31, 1937 A p ril 29, 1937 Stock Exchange call loans.......................... Stock Exchange 90 day lo an s................... P rim e com m ercial paper— 4 to m onth. B ills— 90 day unindorsed........................... Custom ers’ rates on com m ercial loans (Average ra te of leading banks a t m iddle of m o n th )................................. T reas u ry securities: M a tu rin g Septem ber (y ie ld ) ................ M a tu rin g F eb ru ary 1938 (y ie ld ) . . . . A verage yield on Treas u ry notes (1-5 6 *1 % S A Vs 1 1 *1 % & 1 1 *1 H & 1 .6 7 1 .7 1 1 .7 1 N o yield 0 .1 3 0 .5 6 N o yield 0 .4 5 0 .6 9 Average yield on T reas u ry bonds (more th an 5 years to earliest call d a t e ) . . . . Average rate on latest T reas u ry b ill sale 273 day issue..................................... F ed eral Reserve B a n k of N e w Y o rk re discount r a t e ............................................... F ed eral Reserve B a n k of N e w Y o rk buying rate for 90 d ay indorsed b ills . . 1 .3 4 1 .2 5 2 .3 6 2 .6 2 2 .6 3 0 .0 9 0 .6 4 0 .7 2 IX lX IX X X X * N o m inal. M ember B ank Credit The total loans and investments of the weekly report ing New York City banks declined nearly $250,000,000 during the four weeks ended April 21, and on that date were more than $200,000,000 less than a year previous. The principal factor in the decline during the past month has been a further reduction of $150,000,000 in holdings of Government securities, which are now more than $950,000,000 less than at the peak of July 1, 1936. Other investments were reduced $80,000,000, and loans on securities declined $41,000,000. Their commercial loans, however, showed a further small increase. Weekly reporting member banks in other principal cities throughout the country reduced their holdings of Government securities by $107,000,000 during the four week period and there were small reductions also in their holdings of Government guaranteed securities and in their security loans. Their commercial loans, however, showed an increase of about $80,000,000. B ills and Commercial P aper Dealers’ rates for bankers acceptances were unchanged in April, following the increases instituted during March. Early in April there was some increase in the volume of dealers’ business, but the market was quiet during the remainder of the month, and total purchases and sales in April were only about half the volume of March. Reflecting an active demand, including pur chases by banks outside New York City, and a very lim ited supply, dealers’ portfolios showed a decrease for the month. Two small blocks of bills offered by dealers in the first half of the month and a small amount of bills offered FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YO R K by a New York City bank in the third week were pur chased by the New York Reserve Bank at its buying rate of % per cent. Following increases during the preceding six months, the volume of bills outstanding showed a decrease of about $5,000,000 to $396,000,000 during March, but the decline was of a seasonal character and was less than in March of the preceding four years. Accepting banks and bankers held approximately 80 per cent of all bills out standing at the end of March, as against 85 per cent in February; in fact, the proportion of bills held by these institutions was the smallest since February 1934. 35 Required Reserves in Percentages of Deposits. 21 P rio r to N o v . 16, 1914(a) June , 1917 to Aug. 15, 1936(b) O n and a fte r M a y 1, 1937(c) D e m a n d deposits: Cash in v a u lt ........................................................ W it h Federal Reserve B a n k .......................... 25 — — 13 — T o t a l.......................................................... 25 13 26 T im e deposits: Cash in v a u lt ........................................................ W it h Fed eral Reserve B a n k .......................... 25 — — — . T o t a l.......................................................... 25 Central Reserve C ity Banks 26 6 6 3 3 Reserve C ity Banks (M illio n s of dollars) T y p e of acceptance Im p o r t ................................................................ E x p o r t................................................................ D om estic sh ip m en t....................................... D om estic warehouse c r e d it....................... D o lla r exchange.............................................. Based on goods stored in or shipped between foreign co u ntries...................... T o t a l................................................. M a r . 1936 113 90 10 2 57 87 359 Feb. 1937 M a r . 1937 158 85 D e m a n d deposits: Cash in v a u l t * . .................................................... W it h approved a g e n ts ** ................................. W ith Fed eral Reserve B a n k .......................... 160 83 11 6 8 2 77 401 T o t a l.......................................................... 12 2 T im e deposits: Cash in v a u lt * ..................................................... W it h approved a g e n ts ** ................................. W it h Fed eral Reserve B a n k .......................... 64 75 T o t a l.......................................................... 396 12 V2 X 12 25 12 H 12 X — — . — — 10 10 20 20 — — — — . 6 6 3 25 3 Country Banks Average grade prime four to six month commercial paper remained during April at the 1 per cent rate reached in March. Early in the month occasional sales of choice short term paper were made at % per cent, but more recently not much of this class of paper reached the market. Some business in less well known names was also done at 1 % per cent. A moderate total amount of new paper entered the open market, and resale to bank ing investors was made without delay. Commercial paper houses had a total of $290,400,000 of paper outstanding at the end of March, compared with $267,600,000 a month earlier and $180,000,000 a year ago. The March rise was the fourth successive increase in outstandings, which reached the highest level since July 1931. R eserves R equ ired A g a in st B a n k D ep o sits The May 1 increase in member bank reserve require ments completes a series of three increases in the per centages of reserves which member banks are required to carry against their deposits, and raises reserve per centages to the maximum authorized under the Banking Act of 1935. The percentages of reserves required on and after May 1 are double those which prevailed for more than nineteen years prior to August 16, 1936, when the first increase became effective, but are somewhat simi lar to those in effect prior to the establishment of the Federal Reserve System in 1914. Reserve requirements of member banks were reduced during the early years of the Federal Reserve System, and the recent increases, although ordered for other reasons, have had the effect of retracing the steps taken in those years. The following table shows the new reserve requirements for member banks, in comparison with the requirements in effect from June 1917 to the middle of August of last year, and also with the reserve requirements which were in effect for National banks for a number of years previous to the establishment of the Federal Reserve System. D e m a n d deposits: Cash in v a u lt * ..................................................... W ith approved a g e n ts ** ................................. W ith Fed eral Reserve B a n k .......................... 9 — T o t a l .......................................................... 15 T im e deposits: Cash in v a u lt * ..................................................... W ith approved a g e n ts **................................. W ith Fed eral Reserve B a n k .......................... 9 — T o t a l.......................................................... 15 * M in im u m . (a) (b) (c) 6 — — , — — 7 6 14 7 14 — — — — 3 3 6 6 * * M a x im u m . Requirem ents for N a tio n a l banks under th e N a tio n a l B a n k A c t. U n der the Fed eral Reserve A c t, as am ended June , 1917. R equirem ents prescribed b y the B oard of G overnors of the Fed eral Reserve System under the B a n kin g A c t of 1935. 21 As this table indicates, the new reserve requirement of 26 per cent against demand deposits for banks in New York City and Chicago (Central Reserve Cities) com pares with 25 per cent for National banks in the same cities in 1914. Cash in vault cannot now be counted as reserve, but on the other hand, Central Reserve City banks are now required to carry only 6 per cent of reserve against time deposits, whereas before the establishment of the Federal Reserve System the reserve requirement against time deposits was the same as against demand deposits. Reserve percentages against demand deposits for member banks in Reserve cities and for ‘ <country ’ ’ member banks are now somewhat less than for corre sponding National banks up to 1914, but National banks in the earlier period were permitted to count balances with correspondent banks in larger centers, up to speci fied limits, as a part of their reserves. On the other hand, for these banks also present reserve requirements against time deposits are much lower than those in effect before the Federal Reserve System was established. It may be concluded, therefore, that while it is difficult to make a close comparison between present reserve requirements and those in effect a number of years ago, because of the fact that all member bank reserves must now be in the form of deposits with the Federal Reserve 36 MONTHLY REVIEW, M AY 1, 1937 Banks, and may not include vault cash or balances with other banks, the new reserve requirements in general probably represent no very great change from those in effect before the establishment of the Federal Reserve System. Furthermore, the ability of member banks to obtain additional reserves by borrowing from the Federal Reserve Banks, or through other extensions of Federal Reserve credit, makes it unnecessary for them to carry any appreciable amount of reserves in excess of minimum requirements. The increases in percentages of reserves required against bank deposits, since last August, represent a major readjustment, called for by the extraordinary expansion of bank reserves resulting from the great in flow of gold from abroad during the past three and a half years, and the increased value of the gold as a result of the reduction in the gold content of the dollar. Since January 1934 the dollar value of the gold stock of the United States has increased from about $4,000,000,000 to approximately $11,800,000,000, and the ratio of the gold stock to bank deposits and currency outstanding has risen from 9 per cent to nearly 20 per cent. In 1914, before the Federal Reserve System was established, the ratio of the gold stock to deposits and currency was about 7 % per cent. The great increase in the monetary gold stock in the past three years was accompanied by a rise in member bank reserve balances from approximately $2,800,000,000 in January 1934, to about $6,900,000,000 at the present time. If reserve requirements of member banks had been left at the levels prevailing from 1917 to August of last year, member banks would have continued to be under pressure to expand their loans and invest ments, and the possibility of a bank credit expansion of unprecedented proportions would have continued to exist. The doubling of reserve percentages since last August, therefore, represented a necessary adjustment, if poten tial credit expansion was to be brought within reasonable limits. Security M a rk e ts Conditions in the bond market were steadier in April than in March, although there was some further net decline in prices for the past month as a whole. United States Treasury bonds reached their April low points on the opening day of the month as the result of a % point drop in the average price from the closing day of March. After a partial recovery, the market showed renewed weakness on April 6 to 8, but prices did not decline below the April 1 low. Thereafter Treasury bond prices moved upward through April 19 for an average gain of more than 1 point over the April 1 level. After declining again from April 20 to 23, the average price of Teasury bonds recovered toward the close of the month. The decline in other classes of bonds continued into April for a somewhat longer period than did the decline in Government bonds. High grade corporate issues reached their April lows around the 9th of the month, and lower grade corporation issues around the 10th or 12th, following which both classes advanced about 2 points, but after April 20 there were renewed declines of about % point to one point in bond price averages. 1933' 1936 .1 9 3 7 A v era g e Y ield on U nited S tates T r easu ry B onds, H igh Grade Corpo ration and M unicipal B onds, and on M edium Grade C orporation Issu es (F ed eral R eserve B an k oi N ew Y o rk average yield on T reasu ry bonds of m ore than S years* term to call date or m a tu rity ; M o o d y 's In ve sto rs Service data for corporation b on d s; and Standard S ta tistic s C om pany data for m unicipal bon ds) Yields on United States Treasury, high grade muni cipal and corporate bonds, and medium grade corporate issues are shown in the accompanying diagram. A s the diagram indicates, yields on Treasury bonds prevailing around the end of April were about the same as in October 1935, yields on high grade corporation bonds were at approximately the same level as in December of that year, yields on municipal bonds equaled those obtain able in February 1936, and yields on medium grade corporate issues were about the same as in July 1936. In the intermediate and short term United States Government security markets, the average yield on Treasury notes of 1 to 5 year maturity continued to rise to 1.44 per cent on April 8, which was the highest figure since December 1934. Subsequently the yield on these securities dropped to 1.25 per cent on April 29. The average rate at which 9 month Treasury bills were sold by the Treasury on tender was 0.72 per cent on the issue dated April 28, as compared with 0.66 per cent on the April 7 issue and 0.71 per cent on the March 24 issue. The rate on the bills maturing at the September tax period, the flotation of which was begun in the amount of $50,000,000 on April 21 and repeated on April 28, was 0.54-0.55 per cent. In all, $200,000,000 of Treasury bills matured in April, and new issues aggregated $350,000,000, including $50,000,000 due at the June tax period, completing a series of $300,000,000 maturing at that time, $100,000,000 of bills due in the September tax period, and $200,000,000 of 273 day bills due between January 5 and January 26, 1938. The average level of stock prices declined considerably in April, accompanying sizable recessions in prices of a number of basic commodities. Activity on the Stock Exchanges, however, was generally quite small and con siderably less than in March. A recession in the first week of April was followed by a partial recovery in the second and third weeks, but a sharp decline occurred in the latter part of the month. The net decline from the March peak, which represented the highest level since FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF N EW YO R K October 1930, averaged about 14 per cent, so that prices near the end of April were the lowest since early in October 1936. Industrial stocks declined somewhat more than railroad stocks— about 10 per cent for industrials against 7 per cent for the rails— and public utility stocks showed a total decline from the high point of midJanuary of about 23 per cent. N e w F inancing Reflecting the continuance of uncertain market condi tions, a further falling off in the flotation of new securi ties occurred during April. A preliminary tabulation of new financing, including public offerings, private place ments, and the issuance of securities to stockholders, indi cates an April total of approximately $280,000,000, as compared with a final figure of about $410,000,000 in March, and an average of $620,000,000 in the period from December 1936 to February 1937. In April of last year, large refunding operations raised the total for that month to more than $1,000,000,000. Domestic corporate financing aggregated about $160,000,000 in April, and of this amount slightly more than one-half represented flotations placed privately or securities offered to present security holders of certain companies. The only large corporate flotation of the month was approximately $41,100,000 of 3 % per cent 15 year convertible secured bonds of the New York Central Railroad issuable on the exercise of subscription rights by stockholders of the company; the proceeds of this issue have been allocated to the retirement of out standing debentures, bonds, and short term notes. In addition, a number of small and moderate sized bond, stock, and equipment trust issues were arranged by other concerns in April. In the State, municipal, and farm loan field, the prin cipal issues were $33,200,000 of short term Federal Inter mediate Credit Bank debentures, of which $1,000,000 were placed privately, and $25,000,000 of Triborough Bridge Authority (New York) issues. Rates of 0.625 per cent for the 3 month Federal Intermediate Credit Bank debentures and of 0.875 per cent for the 7 month deben tures were slightly more than % per cent higher than the yields offered on the last previous issues. The proceeds of these issues were used to the extent of $21,700,000 to retire maturing obligations, and about $11,500,000 repre sented new funds. The Triborough Bridge Authority financing was composed of $16,500,000 of 40 year sinking fund bonds priced at 99% to yield about 4.01 per cent to maturity, and $8,500,000 of serial bonds maturing from 1942 to 1968, priced to yield from 2.65 to 3.90 per cent according to maturity; it was reported that $18,000,000 of the proceeds will be applied in new bridge construction and $7,000,000 in retiring obligations held by the Recon struction Finance Corporation. A public offering of $35,000,000 of Argentine Republic sinking fund 4 per cent 35 year conversion bonds, of which $15,000,000 were allocated to European selling groups, completed the refunding program of the Argen tine Republic in this market. These bonds were offered for public subscription at a price of 89% , giving a yield of 4.61 per cent to maturity. 3 7 F oreign E xch anges The foreign exchange market was subject to a number of diverse influences during April. In the early part of the month there developed a heavy speculative demand for dollar exchange based upon widespread rumors of a possible lowering of the American price for gold. These rumors served also to accelerate the dishoarding of gold held in London on private account, and they occurred simultaneously with indications of a cessation of the repatriation of French capital. The dollar was generally firm in early April in terms of foreign currencies. Owing to a heavy movement of gold from London to New York, the dollar-sterling rate receded only slightly, however, from $4.897 1 at the end / 6 of March to a low of $4.88% during the course of trading on April 9, and the pressure on sterling was quickly re lieved following the President’s statement on that day that no change in the American gold price was contem plated. In contrast to the brief period of moderate weak ness in sterling, the French franc declined rather sharply from a high of $0.0461% on April 5 to a low of $0.04435 1 / 6 on April 21. The pressure on French exchange subsided during the last few days of the month, with the result that the franc-dollar rate recovered somewhat to $0.0448% during the course of trading on April 29. After touching its low of $4.88% on April 9, the pound showed a rather pronounced upward tendency during the remainder of the month and reached $4.95 on April 29, the highest quotation since the establishment of the tripartite agreement last September. This rise was due to a rather abrupt and substantial increase in the demand for sterling against both gold and foreign currencies. Apart from the President’s denial of rumors regarding American gold policy, several additional factors were re sponsible for this increased demand for sterling. The movement of French capital to London was resumed and the British turned sellers of American securities. More over, the customary supplies of gold coming upon the London market were augmented by Russian sales and private dishoarding, and sellers of gold in London ap parently were inclined to retain a somewhat larger por tion of the proceeds in sterling instead of converting them into francs or dollars. Under these conditions the British authorities, in order to hold sterling steady, would have been obliged to pur chase gold extensively from the American and French Funds, and in the London bullion market. British pur chases of gold evidently were not sufficient to absorb the abnormally heavy offerings in London, and the remainder was taken chiefly for shipment to this country. Under existing conditions, it was possible to obtain sterling for these gold purchases only by bidding the exchange value of sterling up to a level high enough to induce a transfer of balances from London to New York. Thus the con tinued movement of gold to this country, during a period when foreign holders were selling American securities, resulted in a large inflow of short term balances from abroad. Among the other European currencies, the Netherlands guilder, which had held at or close to $0.5476 during most 38 MONTHLY REVIEW, M AY 1, 1937 of April, advanced abruptly to $0.5484 on April 27, and then to $0.5488 on April 29. The Swiss franc also ad vanced from $0.2279 at the end of March to $0.2293 on April 29. the other hand, automobile assemblies were restricted by labor difficulties and output of tobacco products and rayon deliveries declined. (A d justed for seasonal variatio n s and usual year to year grow th) G o ld M o v e m e n t During April gold imports into the United States continued at an accelerated rate. Imports affecting the gold stock totaled $172,100,000, of which $138,800,000 from England, $6,800,000 from Canada, $5,300,000 from Belgium, $4,400,000 from India, $4,200,000 from Colom bia, and $600,000 from France were received at New York, and $10,000,000 from Japan, $1,900,000 from Australia, and $100,000 from Hongkong arrived on the West Coast. Part of the gold from England was reported to be of Russian origin. These imports together with receipts from other sources, including domestic newly mined and scrap gold, and the release of $12,100,000 from foreign account ear markings, resulted in an increase of about $225,000,000 in the gold stock of this country during the month. The Treasury’s daily statement of April 27 shows $549,900,000 of “ inactive gold” held in the general fund. C en tral B a n k R a t e C hanges 1936 1937 M a r. Jan. Feb. M a r. 59 112 112 101 103 102 87 107 95 119 102 111 98p 115p 78 64 87 83 87 73 94 90 94 Metals 6 8 48 72 62 71 Automobiles Passenger ca rs .................................................... M o to r tru c k s ....................................................... 56 71 Fuels B itum ino us coal................................................. A n th rac ite coal................................................... Petroleum , c ru d e ............................................... Petroleum produ cts.......................................... E lectric p o w e r.................................................... 8 6 Textiles and Leather Products C o tto n consum ption......................................... W o o l consum ption............................................ S ilk m ill a c t iv it y ............................................... R a yo n deliv eries *.............................................. Foods and Tobacco Products M e a t p a c k in g ..................................................... W h e a t flo u r.......................................................... Tobacco produ cts.............................................. 84 97 55 91 103 8 6 89 87 112 124 6 8 117 142r 87 81 93 99 59 96 92 94p 112 130 6 6 108 129p 99 60 90 121p 97 p 9 8p 95 p 115 135p 64 p 94 U 5p 82 84 98 91 79 92 69 76 83 158 83 p 175 Miscellaneous On April 1 the discount rate of the National Bank of Albania was lowered from 6% to 6 per cent. The higher rate had been in force since January 2, 1937. N e w sp rin t p ap er................................................ M ach in e tools..................................................... p P re lim in a ry r Revised 49 56 78 96 74 63 83 200 6 6 * F o r q u a rter ended P rodu ction With improvement in the strike situation in the auto mobile industry serving as a contributing factor, the general level of industrial production appears to have continued its rising tendency in April. Assemblies of automobiles increased substantially following the settle ment, on April 6, of the four week Chrysler strike; cotton textile production remained at a high level despite a reported diminution in the volume of new orders re ceived; and steel output continued the upward course that has prevailed with minor interruptions since last summer. The rate of steel output in April was approxi mately 35 per cent higher than a year ago, and toward the end of the month it was reported higher than in the late spring of 1929. There were declines in April in generation of electric power which usually recedes in that month, however, and in bituminous coal output, which was maintained at an unusually high level in March in anticipation of possible difficulties attendant upon the renewal of union agreements. The seasonally adjusted index of industrial produc tion compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System rose 2 points in March to 118 per cent of the 1923-25 average. This compares with the recovery high point of 121 attained in December, and with 93 in March 1936. Average daily steel ingot production rose 5 per cent, bituminous coal output expanded 7 per cent, and cotton consumption by textile mills reached a new record rate. Meat packing operations, shoe production, zinc output, machine tool orders, and anthracite coal mining also gained; and electric power, which usually declines in March, was approximately unchanged. On B u ild in g Construction activity in the New York and Northern New Jersey area, as reflected in the F. W . Dodge Corpo ration contract figures, declined unseasonally in March. Average daily contract awards were 26 per cent lower than in February, reflecting largely a decline in the heavy engineering field including public works projects, which showed a decrease of 42 per cent in average daily contracts, and public utility work which was reduced 73 per cent. Relatively small declines occurred in other types of nonresidential work, and residential contracts remained approximately unchanged. Compared with a year ago, residential contracts were nearly 50 per cent higher, and factory contracts were more than four times as large, but these gains were largely offset by substantially smaller contracts for public works and utility projects, and total contracts, therefore, were only slightly larger than a year ago. For the 37 States covered by the full F. W . Dodge Cor poration report total contracts in March were 23 per cent higher than in February, but on an average daily basis remained practically unchanged. The daily rate for residential contracts was 17 per cent higher than in February, and nonresidential contracts other than public works and utilities, stimulated primarily by activity in factory building, showed an increase of 10 per cent. The heavy engineering types of construction, however, showed a rather marked recession, the decline being most pronounced in the case of public utility projects. Total March contracts registered an increase of 16 per cent over March 1936, gains of 63 per cent in residential build- 3 9 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK MILLIONS O DOLLARS F corn rose during the first part of the month to a high of $1.38% a bushel, and closed the month at $1.38*4. A t the end of April crude rubber was 6 % cents, or 23 per cent, below its early April high. A reduction of about 13 per cent during April in the price of cotton represented the cancelation of more than one-half of the October-March rise. In the metals group, the most pronounced recession was in the price of lead, which showed a net decline of 1 % cents a pound, or about 23 per cent from its high.. The downward movement also reduced the domestic price of copper 3 cents to 14 cents a pound, and the export price to 13.90 cents. Scrap steel at Pittsburgh during March reached $23.75 a ton, the highest price since 1923, but declined $3 a ton in April. Tin moved 11% cents lower to 55% cents a pound, and zinc declined % cent to 6 % cents a pound. D aily A v era g e V a lu e o f C ontracts Aw arded for P rivate and Public C onstruction in 3 7 S tates ( F . W . D odge Corporation d a ta ; latest figures are for first ha lf o f A p ril) ing and 9 per cent in nonresidential construction other than public works and utilities being partly offset by a decrease of 16 per cent in the heavy engineering classification. The increasing importance of private building in recent months is indicated in the accompanying diagram, which shows average daily contracts awarded for both private and public construction work by months since 1932. In March 1937 private construction represented 71 per cent of the total of all contracts, and preliminary figures for the first half of April indicate a further increase in this proportion to nearly 77 per cent, the highest percen tage recorded since the compilation of these figures was begun. C o m m o d ity Prices Following an advance which had been in progress with only minor interruptions since last October, a pro nounced reaction in the wholesale prices of a number of basic commodities developed in early April and continued throughout most of the month. The broad Bureau of Labor Statistics index of wholesale commodity prices, which on April 3 reached a point 48 per cent above the 1933 low and only 8 per cent below the 1929 high, declined about 1 per cent during the three subsequent weeks. The more sensitive Moody’s Investors Service index of prices of 15 raw products, which on April 5 was almost triple the depression low and within 7 per cent of the 1929 peak, receded during the remainder of the month to a point 7 per cent below the recent high. The accompanying table shows the extent of the recent decline in the spot quotations of a number of the principal basic commodities. The recession shown in grain prices in the domestic markets began in the second week of April accompanying favorable weather conditions, and was later accentuated by pronounced weakness in European markets. The cash quotation for the Number 1 grade of Northern wheat at Minneapolis, after reaching $1.69% a bushel, the highest price in more than a decade, declined 2 1 % cents net to $1.47% a bushel at the close of the month, thereby canceling all of the advance which had occurred between October and early April. Cash Spot Price (cents a pound) Recent high Price on A p ril 29 Farm Products W h e a t, N o . 1, M in n e a p o lis !.............................. Corn, N o . 3, yellow , C h ic a g o f.......................... C o tton, m iddling, N e w Y o r k ............................. Per cent decline fro m high 12.8 169 .3 7 5 13 8 .7 5 1 5 .2 5 14 7 .6 2 5 1 3 8 .2 5 13 .2 6 1 7 .0 0 7 .7 7 5 7 .5 0 6 7 .0 0 2 3 .7 5 1 4 .0 0 6 .0 2 5 6 .8 7 5 5 5 .1 2 5 2 0 .7 5 1 7 .6 2 2 .5 8 .3 1 7 .7 21.00 22.6 0 .4 1 3 .0 Metals Copper, domestic electrolytic, N e w Y o r k . . . Lead, N e w Y o r k .............. ....................................... Zinc, E a st St. L o u is .............................................. T in , Straits, N e w Y o r k ........................................ Scrap steel, P itts b u rg h *....................................... Miscellaneous Rubber, crude p la n ta tio n , N e w Y o r k ............ M o o d y ’s index of 15 co m m o d ities................... (D ecem ber 31, 1931 = 100) t Cents a bushel. 2 7 .1 2 5 2 2 8 .1 2 0 7 .9 12.6 8 .9 * D o llars a ton. E m p lo y m e n t and P ayrolls Continuing a practically unbroken series of monthly advances since February 1936, total employment in the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries sur veyed by the Department of Labor increased by more than 300,000 persons from the middle of February to the middle of March, and weekly payrolls rose more than $15,000,000. Since March 1936 the number of workers employed in these industries, which have on their pay rolls a little less than one-half of the nonagricultural workers of the country, has increased by approximately 1,600,000 and average weekly payrolls have advanced by $68,400,000. In the four years since the depression low of March 1933 the Secretary of Labor estimates that the number employed in these industries has increased by 4,850,000 and that aggregate weekly payrolls have risen by $186,000,000. According to the Department of Labor’s indexes, both factory employment and factory payrolls in March were at their highest levels since November 1929. Employment was within approximately 3.5 per cent and payrolls 7 per cent of the 1929 averages. New York State factory employment and payrolls in creased more than is usual from the middle of February to the middle of March, and this bank’s seasonally ad justed employment index advanced approximately 1 per cent to the highest level since February 1930, while the adjusted payrolls index rose 3 per cent to the highest point since July 1930. The increase in payrolls was ac counted for in part by further wage rate increases. All MONTHLY REVIEW, M AY 1, 1937 40 of the major industrial groups shared in the increases in employment and payrolls, and the advances were like wise general in all sections of the State, the Buffalo dis trict showing the most pronounced gains. In dexes of Business A c tiv ity According to the Department of Commerce survey of 37 cities, retail trade during the first three weeks of April continued at levels above a year ago in most sections of the country, despite unfavorable shopping weather in a few districts and the fact that the com parable 1936 period included much of the Easter trade. For the Metropolitan area of New York, however, depart ment store sales during the first half of the month com pared somewhat unfavorably with the March rate. Car loadings of merchandise and miscellaneous freight during the first two weeks of April increased somewhat less than seasonally and shipments of bulk freight over the rail roads showed more than the usual recession. March indexes of business activity follow. Percentage change M a rc h 1937 com pared w ith M a rc h 1936 Lo c ality Net sales 1937 1936 M a r. Jan. Feb. M a r. 69 64 65 84 78 78 69 104 80 79 78 117 81 87 83 87 73 87 94 74 107 94 89 89 P rim a ry D istrib u tion C a r loadings, m erchandise and misc. C a r loadings, o th e r ................................. E x p o r ts ........................................................ Im p o r ts ........................................................ Stock on hand end of m onth 1936 1937 + 2 2 .7 + 1 9 .1 + 1 4 .2 + 1 3 .2 + + 7 .2 + 4 7 .0 4 7 .0 4 6 .6 3 7 .6 4 1 .1 3 8 .5 3 4 .1 4 9 .4 5 1 .2 5 0 .4 4 2 .3 4 3 .4 4 0 .8 3 5 .9 D e p a rtm e n t store sales, U . S . . . . . D e p a rtm e n t store sales, 2nd D i s t . C h ain grocery sales............................ O the r chain store sales..................... M a il order house sales....................... A d v e rtis in g ...................... • • • • : ......... N e w passenger car registrations .. Gasoline consum ption....................... General Business A ctivity B a n k debits, outside N e w Y o rk C i t y . . . . B a n k debits, N e w Y o rk C i t y .................. V e lo city of dem and deposits, outside N e w Y o rk C i t y r ....................................... V e lo city of dem and deposits, N e w Y o rk C i t y r ................................................................. N e w life insurance sales. . ............................ F a c to ry em ploym ent, U n ite d S tates......... N e w corporations form ed in N . Y . S ta te . . B u ild in g contracts, residential..................... B u ild in g contracts, o th e r .............................. 77 120 97 66 86 66 92 85 79 95p 96 + + 2 5 .5 + 1 7 .6 + 1 3 .9 + + 2 1 .4 + 1 5 .0 + 1 2 .9 + 2 4 .7 + 1 5 .0 + 1 4 .5 + 7 .9 + 7 .3 + 2 9 .8 + 1 3 .4 + 2 0 .7 4 4 .4 4 7 .1 A p parel stores................................................ + 1 1 .4 + 4 6 .3 4 3 .9 12.1 21.6 0.2 3 .2 111 p 87 85 67 94 11 0 80 lllp 42 45 70 p 40 73 71 72 71 53 50 75 51 73p 100 10 1 25 56 75 51 76 72 39 65 151 188r 141 G eneral price le v e l* ................ Com posite index of wages*. Cost of l iv i n g * .......................... Revised 77 p N e w Y o r k ................................................................. B u ffa lo ........................................................................ R o chester.................................................................. S yracuse.................................................................... N o rth e rn N e w Jers e y .......................................... B rid g e p o rt................................................................. E lsew h ere.................................................................. N o rth e rn N e w Y o rk S ta te ............................ Southern N e w Y o rk S ta te ............................ C e n tra l N e w Y o rk S ta te ................................ Hudson R iv e r V a lle y D is t r ic t ..................... C a p ita l D is t r ic t ................................................. W estchester and S ta m fo rd ............................ N iag a ra F a lls ...................................................... W h o le sa le T ra d e D istrib u tion to Consumer 161 199 145 200 161 145 48 76 p 102p 70 3 5p 47p 12? 62 201p 146p In March total sales of the reporting wholesale firms averaged 21.4 per cent higher than last year, the largest increase since last July. The diamond concerns recorded the most substantial year to year advance in sales since July 1933, the men’s clothing firms the greatest increase since August 1936, and the jewelry concerns the largest gain since last November. Sales of the grocery and paper firms showed larger increases than in the preceding two months, hardware sales increased more than in February, and stationery sales registered an increase over a year previous following declines in the preceding two months. On the other hand, yardage sales of silk goods, reported by the National Federation of Textiles, and sales of the cotton goods and shoe concerns showed smaller year to year increases than in February. * 1913 average = 100; not adjusted for tre n d . Percentage change M a rc h 1937 com pared w ith M a rc h 1936 D e p a r tm e n t Store T ra d e During the first half of April total sales of the reporting department stores in the Metropolitan area of New York were 1.7 per cent lower than in the corre sponding period of last year. Even after adjustment for the early Easter this year and for the usual seasonal fluctuations, the rate of sales appears to have been somewhat lower in April than in March. Total March sales of the reporting department stores in this district were 13.4 per cent higher than last year, but because there was one more shopping day this year than last, the increase in average daily sales was about 9 % per cent, a slightly smaller increase than in February. Sales of leading apparel stores in this district were 11.4 per cent higher than last year, but on an average daily 12.6 P er cent of accounts outstanding F e b ru a ry 28 collected in M a rc h A ll d ep artm ent stores................................. (A d justed for seasonal variations, for usual year to yea r grow th, and where necessary for price changes) p P re lim in a ry basis the increase was about 7 % per cent, a smaller gain than in the previous two months. Department store stocks of merchandise on hand, at retail valuation, continued more than 20 per cent above a year ago, most of the principal departments showing substantial increases. Collections were better this year than last in the department stores in all localities, but somewhat slower collections were reported by the apparel stores. C o m m o d ity Net G roceries.......................... M e n ’s c lo th in g .............. C o tto n goods.................. R a yo n and silk goods . Shoes................................. H a rd w a r e ........................ S ta tio n e ry ....................... P a p e r ................................. D ia m o n d s ........................ J e w e lry ............................. W eighted average + 1 7 .6 + 1 2 .9 + 5 .9 + 2 9 .6 * + 8 .4 + 1 7 .6 + 1 4 .1 + 2 5 .2 + 1 8 8 .2 + 4 8 .3 + 2 1 .4 Stock end of m o n th + 1 7 .6 + 3 6 .1 + 7 3 .0 — 1 0 .5 P e r cent of accounts outstanding F e b ru a ry 28 collected in M a rc h 1936 1937 91 51 39 63 38 36 64 57 95 60 41 61 43 37 64 53 .3 .7 .4 .6 .1 .0 .3 .3 22 .4 6 0 .0 } .9 .9 .6 .4 .2 .7 .0 .0 25 .1 6 4 .0 * Quantity figures reported by the National Federation of Textiles, Incorporated ’ not included in weighted average for total wholesale trade. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK MONTHLY REVIEW, MAY 1, 1937 Business Conditions in the United States ( S u m m a r iz e d b y th e B o a r d o f G o v e rn o rs o f th e F e d e r a l R e s e rv e S y s te m ) c n r a I N a nMda rm h eis dsuhsotwie dl in a c t i v it y c o n tin u e d to in c re a s e a n d p a y r o lls a t f a c t o r ie s a s u b s t a n t i a l r is e . P r i c e s o f b a s ic c o m m o d it ie s a f t e r a d v a n c i n g r a p i d l y i n M a r c h d e c li n e d i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f A p r i l . Production and Employment I n d u s t r ia l p r o d u c tio n in c re a s e d f r o m F e b r u a r y to M a r c h a n d th e B o a r d ’s s e a s o n a lly a d j u s t e d i n d e x a d v a n c e d f r o m 1 1 6 p e r c e n t o f t h e 1 9 2 3 - 1 9 2 5 a v e r a g e to 1 1 8 p e r c e n t. T h e r is e r e f le c t e d a s h a r p i n c r e a s e i n o u t p u t o f m i n e r a ls , c h i e f ly c o a l, a n d a n i n c r e a s e o f s o m e w h a t m o r e t h a n t h e u s u a l s e a s o n a l a m o u n t i n m a n u f a c t u r in g . T h e la r g e r o u t p u t o f c o a l i n M a r c h w a s d u e i n p a r t to s to c k in g b y c o n s u m e r s i n a n t i c i p a t i o n o f a p o s s ib le s t r i k e a t b i t u m i n o u s c o a l m in e s o n A p ril 1 w h e n th e e x p ir e d . Index N u m b er o f Production o f M an u factu res and M in erals Com bined, A d ju ste d for Seasonal Variation ( 1 9 2 3 - 2 5 a v e r a g e = 1 0 0 per cen t) A new a g re e m e n t b e tw e e n m in e a g re e m e n t w a s re a c h e d o p e ra to rs and on A p r il 2 b u t, th e o w in g m in e r s 9 u n io n p a r tly to th e p r e v io u s a c c u m u la t i o n o f s to c k s , p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e f i r s t t e n d a y s o f A p r i l s h o w e d a s h a r p d e c lin e . D u r i n g M a r c h a c t i v i t y a t s t e e l m i l l s i n c r e a s e d s e a s o n a lly a n d i n th e f ir s t t h r e e w e e k s o f A p r i l w a s o v e r 9 0 p e r c e n t o f c a p a c it y . I n th e a u to m o b ile in d u s t r y o u t p u t s h o w e d a b o u t th e u s u a l s e a s o n a l in c re a s e in M a r c h a n d t h e f i r s t t h r e e w e e k s o f A p r i l , c o n s id e r a b le f l u c t u a t i o n s d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d b e i n g l a r g e l y i n r e s p o n s e t o d e v e lo p m e n ts i n t h e l a b o r s i t u a t i o n . L u m b e r p r o d u c t i o n e x p a n d e d c o n s id e r a b ly i n M a r c h , a n d t h e r e w a s a s h a r p r is e i n o u t p u t o f n o n f e r r o u s m e t a ls . C o t t o n c o n s u m p t io n , w h ic h h a s b e e n a t a n u n u s u a l l y h i g h le v e l i n r e c e n t m o n t h s , in c r e a s e d f u r t h e r i n M a rc h a n d in a c tu a l a m o u n t w as l a r g e r t h a n i n a n y p r e v io u s m o n t h . P r o d u c t i o n a t w o o le n m i l l s a n d s h o e f a c t o r i e s c o n t i n u e d i n l a r g e v o lu m e . V a lu e o f c o n s tr u c tio n F. W . Dodge c o n tra c ts C o rp o r a tio n , w a s at a w a rd e d a b o u t th e in M a rc h , as re p o rte d s a m e le v e l as i n by F e b ru a ry th e and s u b s t a n t i a l l y h i g h e r t h a n a y e a r a g o . P r i v a t e l y f in a n c e d w o r k in c r e a s e d , w h il e t h e a m o u n t o f p u b l i c l y f in a n c e d w o r k c o n t i n u e d t o d e c lin e . T h e i n c r e a s e i n p r i v a t e l y f in a n c e d p r o j e c t s r e f le c t e d a l a r g e r v o lu m e o f r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g a n d o f f a c t o r y a n d c o m m e r c ia l c o n s tr u c tio n . E m p l o y m e n t a n d p a y r o l l s i n c r e a s e d b y c o n s id e r a b ly m o r e t h a n t h e u s u a l s e a s o n a l a m o u n t b e tw e e n th e m id d le o f F e b r u a r y a n d th e m id d le o f M a r c h . Index N u m bers o f F a ctory E m p lo ym en t and P a yrolls, W ith o u t A d ju stm e n t for Seasonal V ariation ( 1 9 2 3 - 2 5 average = 1 0 0 per cen t) T h e e x p a n s io n i n p a y r o l l s w a s l a r g e r t h a n i n e m p l o y m e n t , r e f l e c t i n g i n p a r t a f u r t h e r r is e i n w a g e r a t e s . a n d lu m b e r . PER C E N T I n m a n u f a c t u r i n g , t h e p r i n c i p a l in c r e a s e s i n e m p l o y m e n t w e r e i n i n d u s t r ie s p r o d u c in g d u r a b le g o o d s , p a r t i c u l a r l y s t e e l, m a c h i n e r y , T h e n u m b e r e m p lo y e d i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f n o n d u r a b l e m a n u f a c t u r e s s h o w e d s l i g h t l y m o r e t h a n t h e u s u a l s e a s o n a l r is e . Distribution FOODS OTHER r -OMMODIT IES ) / h *c i id I c y f ^ > -X T '’ r h u RM j PRODUCTS v y W D i s t r i b u t i o n o f c o m m o d it ie s t o c o n s u m e r s s h o w e d a b o u t t h e u s u a l s e a s o n a l i n c r e a s e f r o m F e b r u a r y t o M a r c h . M a i l o r d e r s a le s e x p a n d e d c o n s id e r a b ly b u t t h e r is e i n d e p a r t m e n t s t o r e s a le s w a s le s s t h a n s e a s o n a l, c o n s id e r i n g t h e e a r l y d a t e o f E a s t e r t h is y e a r . Commodity Prices P r i c e s o f n o n f e r r o u s m e t a ls , s t e e l s c r a p , r u b b e r , c o t t o n , a n d w h e a t , w h ic h h a d a d v a n c e d r a p i d l y i n M a r c h , d e c li n e d c o n s id e r a b ly i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f A p r i l . S in c e th e m id d le o f M a r c h p ric e s o f c o k e , t i n p la t e , a n d r a y o n h a v e a d v a n c e d a n d t h e r e h a v e b e e n s m a l l e r in c r e a s e s i n a w i d e v a r i e t y o f o t h e r i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t s . D a i r y p r o d u c t s h a v e d e c lin e d , r e f l e c t i n g i n p a r t s e a s o n a l d e v e lo p m e n ts . Bank Credit G roup Price Indexes o f Bureau o f Labor S ta tis tics ( 1 9 2 6 a v e r a g e s 1 0 0 per cen t) I n t h e f o u r w e e k p e r io d f r o m M a r c h 2 4 to A p r i l 2 1 excess re s e rv e s o f m e m b e r b a n k s i n c r e a s e d f r o m $ 1 , 2 7 0 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 t o $ 1 , 5 9 0 , 0 0 0 ,0 0 0 , r e f l e c t i n g p r i n c i p a l l y d is b u r s e m e n t s b y t h e T r e a s u r y f r o m b a la n c e s w i t h F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k s a n d p u r c h a s e s o f U . S . G o v e r n m e n t o b l i g a t io n s b y t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m . T h e b u lk o f th e in c re a s e i n excess re s e rv e s w a s a t b a n k s i n N e w Y o r k C it y a n d C h ic a g o . T o t a l lo a n s a n d in v e s t m e n t s o f r e p o r t i n g m e m b e r b a n k s , w h ic h h a d d e c li n e d s h a r p l y i n M a r c h , r e f l e c t i n g s a le s o f U . S . G o v e r n m e n t o b l i g a t io n s , s h o w e d l i t t l e c h a n g e in th e tw o w eeks en d ed A p r il 1 4 . L o a n s t o b r o k e r s a n d d e a le r s i n s e c u r i t ie s d e c li n e d f r o m t h e m i d d l e o f M a r c h t o t h e m i d d l e o f A p r i l , w h i l e o t h e r lo a n s , w h ic h i n c lu d e lo a n s f o r c o m m e r c i a l, i n d u s t r i a l , a n d a g r i c u l t u r a l p u r p o s e s , s h o w e d a s u b s ta n tia l in c re a s e . T h e s e lo a n s h a v e in c r e a s e d a l m o s t c o n t i n u o u s ly o v e r t h e p a s t y e a r; D e m a n d d e p o s it s , a f t e r d e c l i n i n g i n M a r c h , i n c r e a s e d s o m e w h a t i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f A p r i l , a n d t h e r e w a s a n in c r e a s e i n f o r e i g n b a n k b a la n c e s , r e f l e c t i n g a n in w a r d m o v e m e n t o f s h o rt t e r m fu n d s f r o m a b ro a d . Money Rates T h e r a t e o n p r im e c o m m e r c ia l p a p e r a d v a n c e d f r o m Wednesday Figures for Reporting Member Banks (Latest figures are for April 14) in th e l a t t e r p a r t o f M a r c h . % p e r c e n t to 1 p e r c e n t B o n d y i e ld s , w h ic h h a d a d v a n c e d s h a r p l y i n M a r c h , s h o w e d n o p ro n o u n c e d c h a n g e in th e f ir s t th r e e w e e k s o f A p r i l .
@FedFRASER