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MONTHLY REVIEW O f Credit and Business Conditions FEDERAL V olum e RESERVE 39 BANK MARCH OF NEW YORK 1957 No. 3 MONEY MARKET IN FEBRUARY T h e m o n e y m a rk et w as u n d er relatively steady pressu re d esp ite the 1 0 0 m illio n d o lla r in crea se in the a m ou n t o f in F eb ru a ry , ev en in the F e b ru a ry 2 0 statem ent w e e k w h en n e w bills o ffe re d in the first tw o w e e k ly a u ction s o f the reserve p o s itio n s eased tem p ora rily . O n the oth er h an d, m on th . R a tes su b seq u en tly d rifted b a c k u p , h o w e v e r, re the securities m arkets, d espite ex ten siv e T rea su ry fin an cin g flectin g in p a rt th e fu rth er e x p a n sio n o f w e e k ly offerin g s to op e ra tio n s and the h ea v y flo w m u n icip a l offerin g s, co n tin u e d of to n ew m ove and 1.8 b illio n d o lla rs, an in crea se o f 2 0 0 m illio n d olla rs o v e r h igh er th e m a tu rin g issues. R a te s o n the lon g est ou tstan d in g reg u c o r p o r a te to w a rd p rices an d lo w e r rates th rou g h the first h a lf o f the m on th lar b ills fe ll fr o m 3 .1 2 p e r cen t o n Janu ary 31 to a lo w b e fo r e reactin g m o d e ra te ly in the s e c o n d h alf. p o in t o f 2 .9 8 p e r cen t o n F e b ru a ry 13, b u t b y the en d o f M em ber ba n k reserve p o s itio n s, w h ich h a d b e e n eased in January the m o n th h a d risen again to 3 .2 8 p e r cen t. b y u nu su ally stron g sea son a l in flu en ces, w ere tigh ten ed A t the en d o f Janu ary, o n e b a n k ers’ a c c e p ta n c e d ea ler o v e r the m on th b y a co n tin u in g r e d u ctio n in the quantity h ad r e d u c e d rates b y Vs p e r cen t, fo llo w in g a gen erally o f G o v e rn m e n t secu rities h e ld b y the F e d e ra l R e s e rv e sharp ru n d o w n in d ea ler p o r tfo lio s fr o m the u n u su ally h igh System and, to a lesser d eg ree, b y th e sh ifting im p a ct o f p ea k r e a ch e d at the y ea r en d . regular m a rk et in flu en ces. d ealers rem a in ed u n ch a n g ed , h o w e v e r, an d o n F e b ru a ry 6, System sales of sh ort-term R a te s q u o te d b y oth er T reasu ry issues, in clu d in g n otes an d certificates, a m ou n ted w ith a su p p ly o f n e w a cce p ta n ce s co n tin u in g to a p p ea r at to 5 7 4 m illio n d olla rs o v e r th e fo u r w eek s en d ed F e b r u th ose rates, the o n e dea ler w h o h a d cu t his rate ca m e b a c k ary 2 7 . in lin e w ith the rest o f the m a rket. A t the en d o f the m on th In the first h a lf o f the m on th , these sales w ere partly offset b y rep u rch a se agreem en ts d esign ed to aid the b id o n 9 0 -d a y a c ce p ta n ce s thus s to o d at 3 V i p e r cen t G o v e rn m e n t securities dealers in their u n derw ritin g fu n c fo r all dealers. O n F e b ru a ry 19, rates o n tim e loa n s m a de tion du ring the p e r io d o f T rea su ry fin an cin g . T h e effectiv e to secu rity dealers against sto ck e x ch a n g e colla tera l w ere rate o n F ed era l fu n d s h eld to the 3 p e r cen t “ ceilin g ” o n re d u ce d b y Vs p e r cen t. ea ch d a y, b u t m o n e y m a rk et pressures w ere at n o tim e w h ich h a d b e e n 4 Vi p e r c e n t (b id ) sin ce D e c e m b e r 2 1 , u n d u ly severe. w as thus lo w e re d to 4 3/s p e r cent. T h e rate o n 9 0 -d a y tim e loa n s, In the G o v e r n m e n t secu rities m a rket, atten tion early in the m on th w as fo c u s e d o n T rea su ry b o r r o w in g o p e r a tions in v olv in g the refu n d in g o f n otes and certificates, 1 0 .7 b illio n dollars o f M e m b e r B a n k R e s e r v e P o s it io n s M e m b e r b a n k b o r r o w in g s at F ed era l R e s e rv e B a n k s m atu ring v a riou sly in F eb ru a ry , rose substantially in F e b ru a ry to an average lev el o f 6 4 3 M a rch , and A p r il, and the refin a n cin g o f the sp ecia l 1.7 5 m illion d ollars, c o m p a r e d w ith an average o f 4 1 3 m illion b illion d olla r issue o f F e b ru a ry 15 bills floa ted in N o v e m in the p r e ce d in g fo u r w eek s. In con tra st to the p re ce d in g ber. A lth o u g h the attrition o n the e x ch a n g e o f n otes and m on th , w h en m e m b e r ba n k s h eld net free reserves th rou g h certificates w as relatively la rge— 8 7 0 m illio n d ollars, o r m ost o f the p e r io d , average b o r r o w in g s in F eb ru a ry e x 17 p e r cen t o f h old in g s ou tsid e the F ed era l R e s e rv e System c e e d e d average e x cess reserves in ea ch o f the fo u r w eek s. an d G o v e rn m e n t a g en cies— the fin an cin g w as a b so rb e d w ith ou t significantly in terru ptin g the steady c lim b in p rices o f b o n d s and n otes that h a d b eg u n o n Janu ary 8. L a ter in the m on th , there w ere sharp m a rk d o w n s o n several days (a lth o u g h generally fo llo w e d b y m od era te r e c o v e r y ) a p p a r en tly reflectin g som e m a rk et o p in io n that p rices h ad m o v e d to h igh er levels than w ere w arra n ted b y the o u tlo o k fo r business c o n d itio n s an d cred it p o lic y . V ig o r o u s n o n b a n k d em a n d fo r T rea su ry bills b rou gh t d o w n w a rd pressu re o n yields in the first h a lf o f F eb ru a ry , CONTENTS Money Market in February.................................25 International Monetary Developments ............ .28 Open Market Operations A broad.......................30 Earnings and Expenses of Second District Member Banks in 1956 .....................................36 Selected Economic Indicators............................ .40 MONTHLY REVIEW, MARCH 1957 26 P ressu re o n reserves w as relatively ev en d u rin g the first M e m b e r ba n k s c a m e u n d er re n e w e d p ressu re to w a r d the h a lf o f th e m on th , b e fo r e easin g in th e th ird w e e k and en d o f the m on th , m a in ly as th e result o f a re d u c tio n in tigh ten in g again to w a rd the en d o f the m on th . floa t an d an in crea se in T rea su ry b a la n ces. In ea ch o f the first tw o statem ent w eek s in F eb ru a ry , The h ea v y d ra in on T rea su ry d e p o s its p ersisted a v erag e b o r r o w in g s r o s e b y a b o u t 1 0 0 m illio n d olla rs, r e th rou g h m o s t o f F e b ru a ry , at tim es ad d in g su bstantially flectin g p rim a rily th e n e e d f o r fu n d s t o re p la c e reserves lost to b a n k reserves. as a resu lt o f sales o f G o v e r n m e n t secu rities. R e s e rv e B a n k s in th e first statem ent w e e k o f F e b ru a ry , R e s e rv e s w e re a lso a b s o r b e d , o n b a la n ce , b y a d e c lin e in w h ich o rd in a rily w o u ld h a v e w ith draw n reserves, resu lted floa t an d a rise o f c u rre n cy in circu la tio n . T h e se o p era tin g fr o m b o o k k e e p in g tran sfers that o b s c u r e d an actu al o u t d rain s w ere la rg ely offset, h o w e v e r, b y a r e d u c tio n in flo w o f fu n d s to the m a rk et. T rea su ry ba la n ces at F ed era l R e s e rv e B a n k s, an in crease in T rea su ry b a la n ces reflected the n ew d ep osits cre a te d b y g o ld sto ck , an d som e fu rther r e d u c tio n in req u ired reserves. the R e s e rv e B a n k s u p o n r e ce ip t o f cred its to th eir g o ld T h e e ffe ct o f ou trigh t sales o f G o v e r n m e n t secu rities b y certificate a cco u n ts b y th e T rea su ry . T h e se g o ld certificate the F e d e ra l R e s e rv e S ystem w as te m p e re d b y an ex p a n sio n credits w ere b a se d u p o n the p u rch a se b y the T rea su ry o f S ystem E v e n the rise in T rea su ry d e p o s its at In this case, th e in crea se in in rep u rch a se agreem en ts ou tstan din g, bu t o n b a la n ce the 3 0 0 m illio n dolla rs o f g o ld fr o m the In tern a tion a l M o n e re d u c tio n o f S ystem h old in g s w as substantial. tary F u n d n ear th e en d of Ja n u a ry in e x ch a n g e fo r T o w a r d the m id d le o f th e m o n th th ere w as a m a rk ed n on in terest-b ea rin g n otes to in crea se the d o lla r assets o f rela x a tion o f p ressu re o n b a n k reserve p o s itio n s, a llow in g the I M F . H a d the n ew d ep osits n o t b e e n crea ted , T rea su ry m e m b e r b a n k s to r e d u c e som ew h a t th eir in d eb ted n ess to b a la n ces at R e s e rv e B a n k s w o u ld h a v e d e clin e d . R e s e rv e B a n k s. a d d ition a l T rea su ry d ep osits w e re M u c h o f the easin g w as attribu table to soon T h e se expended, but th e m id m o n th p e a k in floa t, w h ich w a s som ew h a t h eigh t to w a rd th e en d o f the m o n th T rea su ry b a la n ces w e re e n e d b y dela ys in the p r o ce s sin g o f c h e ck s resu ltin g fr o m p a rtly rep len ish ed fr o m m o r e n o rm a l sou rces o f fu n d s, the o b s e rv a n c e o f L in c o ln ’ s B irth d a y at a n u m b er o f F e d in clu d in g the sale o f a d d ition a l T rea su ry b ills. eral R e s e rv e o ffices. m o n th as a w h o le , h o w e v e r, T rea su ry o p e ra tio n s resu lted T rea su ry b a la n ces co n tin u e d to fall, releasin g reserves to the m a rk et, an d th ere w ere oth er gains fr o m g o ld an d fo r e ig n a c c o u n t o p e ra tio n s an d fr o m F o r th e in a d d ition s to b a n k reserves. a G o v e r n m e n t S e c u r it ie s M retu rn flo w o f cu rren cy . A b o u t h a lf o f the a d d e d reserves arket w ere a b s o r b e d b y System o p e n m a rk et sales an d the ru n o ff T h e c o n tin u e d b u o y a n c y o f the G o v e r n m e n t secu rities o f rep u rch a se a greem en ts w ritten earlier in the m on th . m a rk et early in F e b ru a ry greatly fa cilita ted th e T re a su ry fin an cin g o p e ra tio n s u n d erta k en in th e o p e n in g w e e k o f the m on th . T able I C hanges in F a ctors T ending to Increase or D ecrease M em ber B ank R eserves, February 195 7 and certificates, an d ten ders w ere r e ce iv e d o n F e b ru a ry 7 (In m illions o f d o lla rs; ( + ) denotes increase, ( — ) decrease in excess reserves) fo r 1 .7 5 b illio n dolla rs in n ew ta x a n ticip a tion b ills d e sign ed to r e p la ce the sp ecia l 9 1 -d a y bills issu ed in N o v e m Daily averages;— week ended Net changes Factor Feb. 6 Feb. 13 Feb. 20 Feb. 27 -1 2 1 - 38 + 12 +167 -1 1 7 +155 - 78 - 46 - 32 - 38 +210 +226 + 36 +110 - 36 -1 2 2 + 29 + 61 - 27 -1 7 4 +122 +139 + 63 +218 -3 6 5 T o ta l............................................ - - +546 -2 3 2 +178 an d m a tu rin g F e b ru a ry 15. In the first o f th ese p er cen t certificates m atu rin g F eb ru a ry 15 an d o f 3 .0 b il 95 41 Direct Federal Reserve credit transactions Government securities: '“ '‘T : Direct market purchases orsales. . Held under repurchase agreements. Loans, discounts, and advances: Member bank borrowings................ Other......................................................... Bankers’ acceptances: Bought outright.................................... Under repurchase_agreements......... b er fin an cin g op e ra tio n s , h old ers o f 7 .2 b illio n d olla rs o f 2 % Operating transactions Treasury operations*.............................. Federal Reserve float.............................. Currency in circulation.......................... Gold and foreign account...................... Other deposits, e tc ................................... S u b scrip tion b o o k s w e re o p e n o n F e b ru a ry 4 an d 5 fo r refu n d in g 1 0 .7 b illio n d olla rs o f m a tu rin g n otes lio n d olla rs o f 2 % p e r cen t n otes m atu rin g M a r c h 15 w ere given the o p t io n o f ex ch a n g in g their secu rities f o r either o f tw o n ew issues— 3 % p e r cen t certificates o f in d eb ted n ess d u e F e b ru a ry 14, 1 9 5 8 , o r 3 V 2 p e r cen t n otes m a tu rin g M a y 15, 1 9 6 0 . H o ld e r s o f 53 1 m illion d olla rs o f 39 24 -2 2 1 + 50 -2 3 2 - 63 -1 0 4 - 11 -5 9 6 — +113 — +101 — -1 6 4 — + 136 — +186 — __ __ - - - + 1 1 2 cen t n otes d u e A p r il 1, 1957 (p r im a rily IV 2 per th e F e d e ra l R e s e rv e B a n k s ) w ere a llo w e d to ex ch a n g e o n ly in to the n ew o n e -y e a r certificates. F eb ru a ry 15 , 1 9 5 7 . B o th n ew issues w e re da ted T h e n ew ta x a n ticip a tion bills, also T o ta l............................................ + 97 - -4 5 9 + 20 -4 1 3 d a ted F e b ru a ry 15, w ere o ffe re d in e x ch a n g e f o r either Total reserves.................................................... Effect of change in required reserves^----- + + 2 67 -1 1 2 +205 + - 87 53 -2 1 2 + 76 -2 3 5 +295 cash o r fo r the sp ecia l b ills m atu ring o n F e b ru a ry 1 5 . T h e + 69 + + 34 -1 3 6 + 552 505 688 369 Daily average level of member bank: Borrowings from Reserve B anks. . . . Excess reservest........................................ 71 93 60 n ew ta x issue w ill m a tu re Ju n e 2 4 , 1 9 5 7 , an d m a y b e o ffe re d at fa c e v a lu e in p a y m en t o f in c o m e an d profits taxes d u e Ju n e 15 , 1 9 5 7 . 615 378 716 471 643* 431* B o th fin an cin g o p e ra tio n s p r o c e e d e d sm ooth ly . o f the m atu rin g 2 % N ote: Because of rounding, figures do not necessarily add to totals. * Includes changes in Treasury currency and cash, t These figures are estimated, t Average for the four weeks ended February 27. p e r cen t n otes an d 2% P rices p e r cen t c e r tificates, the p rin cip a l “ righ ts” to the fin an cin g, m o v e d to slight p rem iu m s after the initial T rea su ry a n n ou n cem en t 27 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK o f term s an d h e ld th ere du rin g the refu n d in g. T h e n ew issues also w ere q u o te d a b o v e p a r in “ w h en -issu ed ” trad ing. MARKET YIELDS OF SELECTED SECURITIES R esu lts o f the ex ch a n g e , relea sed b y th e T rea su ry later in the m on th , sh o w e d that h o ld e rs o f 2 8 2 m illion We ekl y* | d ollars o f the F e b ru a ry n otes, 5 7 9 m illio n d olla rs o f the M a r ch n otes, an d 9 m illio n dolla rs o f the A p r il n otes h a d A a a corporate b on d s elected to presen t their h o ld in g s f o r cash r e d e m p tio n . T h e rem ain in g 9 .9 b illio n d olla rs o f m atu ring secu rities w ere ex ch a n g ed f o r 8 .4 b illio n d olla rs o f the n ew o n e -y e a r c e r tificates an d 1.5 b illio n d olla rs o f the n otes o f 1 9 6 0 . T h e co n tin u in g a d v a n ce o f p rice s o f ou tstan d in g T r e a s f Long-term Treasury issues* u ry b o n d s an d n otes d u rin g the first p a rt o f th e m o n th j ap paren tly w as su stained prim a rily, as in Janu ary, b y a g en eral fe e lin g in the m a rk et that the v ig o r o f th e e c o n o m ic f Sy A a a municipal b on ds b o o m h a d ab ated fo r the tim e b ein g . In a d d ition , the c o n 1 tinu in g su ccess o f u n derw riters in distribu ting ra p id ly the J large v o lu m e o f n ew c o r p o r a te issues w as ta k en b y som e F 1 1 1 M A M 1 J 1 1 J 1956 A I 1 S O ! 1 N D ..J. J 1 F L...L..... 1....... M A 19 57 M J * W e e k l y a v e r a g e s , ex ce p t W e d n e s d a y clo se for municipal bon ds. Latest da te pl otted is February 21. + Old series. Sources: Board of Go ver nor s of the F ede ral Reserve System and M o o d y ’s Investors Service. ob serv ers to m ea n that in terest rates h a d re a c h e d th eir p ea ks. Y ie ld s o n lo n g e r term G o v e r n m e n t issues, as sh ow n in the a c c o m p a n y in g ch a rt, w ere thus ca rried d o w n to the lo w e st lev els sin ce last O c t o b e r . B y the m id d le o f the m o n th , h o w e v e r, m a rk et o p in io n h ad ap paren tly b e c o m e in crea sin gly c o n c e r n e d o v e r the sustainability o f the h igh er p r ic e structure, sin ce little ev i d e n ce h a d d e v e lo p e d o f an y fu n d a m en ta l shift in F ed era l R es e rv e p o lic y o r in bu sin ess c o n d itio n s. A lim ited su p p ly o f 3 1A '>s o f 1 9 7 8 -8 3 an d 3 ’ s o f 1 9 9 5 h e lp e d to to u c h o ff a d o w n w a rd m o v e m e n t, a n d th e T rea su ry a n n o u n c e m en t o n F e b ru a ry 1 4 that C on g ress w o u ld b e ask ed fo r au th ority to raise to 3V\ p e r cen t the in terest rate p a y a b le o n Series E an d H b o n d s a d d e d so m e fu rth er pressu re. T h e se in flu en ces, a lo n g w ith o p tim istic statem ents b y G o v the rein vestm en t o f p r o c e e d s fr o m sales o f “ righ ts” b y som e in vestors a n ticip atin g cash n eed s w ith in a sh ort p e r io d . A v e r a g e issuing rates in the first tw o w e e k ly au ction s m o v e d d o w n steadily, fr o m 3 .2 8 3 p e r c e n t o n Ja n u a ry 2 8 to 3 .1 3 2 p e r cen t o n F e b ru a ry 4 an d to 3 .0 5 7 p e r cen t o n F e b ru a ry 11. O v e r the rest o f th e m on th , average issu in g rates r o se som ew h a t, m o v in g u p to 3 .1 8 2 p e r cen t in the a u ctio n o f F e b r u a r y 18 an d 3 .2 8 8 p e r cen t o n F e b r u ary 2 5 , as som e signs o f a sea son al sla ck en in g o f d em a n d d e v e lo p e d in the m a rk et w ith the a p p ro a ch o f th e M a r c h 15 ta x date. O t h e r S e c u r it ie s M ern m en t officials o n the e c o n o m ic o u tlo o k , g en era ted som e irregu lar d e clin es in th e latter h a lf o f F e b ru a ry . arkets A t the T h e firm to n e that h a d a p p e a re d in th e c o r p o r a te an d en d o f the m on th , p r ic e s o f m o s t b o n d s ca lla b le after 1961 m u n icip a l b o n d m ark ets in Janu ary w as e x te n d e d in to w ere m o r e than 2 fu ll p o in ts b e lo w their earlier F eb ru a ry F e b ru a ry desp ite th e co n tin u in g la rg e flo w o f n e w secu rity pea ks an d as m u c h as 1 % offerin g s. In the latter p a rt o f the m on th , a slightly h eavier p o in ts lo w e r than at the en d o f January. T h e d eclin es w e re m u ch less p r o n o u n c e d fo r the 3 V4 ’ s an d 3 ’ s, w h ich fe ll % 2 and a tm osp h ere d e v e lo p e d , esp e cia lly in th e m u n icip a l m a r resp ectiv ely , ket, b u t y ield s g en era lly rem a in ed steady at th e lev els to o v e r the m on th as a w h o le . T h ro u g h o u t F eb ru a ry , trad ing w h ich th ey h a d d e c lin e d in th e p r e v io u s several w eek s. in the in term ediate and lo n g -te rm area w as v e ry light, so A v e r a g e y ield s o n ou tstan d in g h ig h -g ra d e c o r p o r a te b o n d s , that the relatively sh arp p r ic e m ov e m e n ts d id n o t reflect as reflected in M o o d y ’ s A a a -r a te d in d e x , m o v e d d o w n 6 m a jo r ch a n ges in su p p ly an d d em a n d . b a sis-p oin ts o v e r the m o n th to 3 .6 6 p e r cen t, w h ile fo r Y ie ld s o n T rea su ry bills m o v e d d o w n steadily in the first m u n icip a l issues w ith a sim ilar rating average rates at the tw o w eek s o f F e b ru a ry desp ite the a d d e d su p p ly resulting en d o f F eb ru a ry w ere 4 b a sis-p oin ts b e lo w th e 2 .8 7 p er fr o m cen t lev el establish ed at the c lo s e o f th e p r e ce d in g m on th . su ccessiv e in creases o f 1 0 0 m illio n d olla rs in the regu lar bill issues d u rin g the p e r io d . T h e m a rk et also T h e w id est p r ic e flu ctu a tion s w e re e x p e rie n c e d b y c o r h ad little difficu lty in a b so rb in g the 1 .7 5 b illio n d ollars p o ra te co n v e rtib le issues, reflectin g th e sh arp b rea k in o f n ew tax bills a u ctio n e d o n F e b ru a ry 7 ; the average issu the sto ck m a rk et o n F e b ru a ry 11 an d p a rtial re co v e ry ing rate w as 3 .2 3 1 p e r cen t an d b id q u ota tion s h eld clo s e th ereafter. to this lev el th rou g h m u ch o f the rem a in d er o f the m on th . T h e v o lu m e o f p u b lic offerin g s o f c o r p o r a te b o n d s fo r H o w e v e r , w h en the regu lar w e e k ly o fferin g w as in crea sed n ew ca p ita l is estim a ted to h a v e b e e n 4 6 5 m illio n dolla rs b y a n oth er 1 0 0 m illion to 1.8 b illio n dolla rs in the a u ction in F eb ru a ry , c o m p a r e d w ith 6 2 0 m illio n dolla rs in Janu o f F eb ru a ry 18, a som ew h a t sluggish to n e a p p ea red in the ary. m arket. T h e n o n b a n k b u y in g in the first h a lf o f F eb ru a ry m illion dolla rs o f n ew offerin g s a y ea r earlier, an d since in clu d ed a substantial c o rp o r a te d em a n d , b a se d pa rtly o n F eb ru a ry h a d a relatively sm all n u m b er o f bu siness days. It w as c o n s id e r a b ly in ex cess, h o w e v e r, o f the 1 2 0 28 MONTHLY REVIEW, MARCH 1957 the a b so rp tio n o f the n ew issues req u ired ex ten siv e m ark et activity. N ev erth eless, m o s t o f the n ew issues w ere w ell T o ta l in vestm ents o f w e e k ly rep ortin g m e m b e r b a n k s d e c lin e d b y 4 0 7 m illio n d olla rs d u rin g th e fo u r w e e k s re ce iv e d an d q u o te d at p re m iu m p rice s in the se co n d a ry e n d ed F e b ru a ry 2 0 , a m u ch sm aller d r o p th an in 1 9 5 6 . m ark et. A s a result, d ea ler in ven tories o f n ew c o rp o r a te B a n k h o ld in g s o f G o v e r n m e n t securities fe ll b y 5 2 1 m illio n b o n d s a p p aren tly rem a in ed relatively lo w , desp ite the large dolla rs, b u t this d e clin e w as o n ly h a lf as la rg e as a y ea r v o lu m e that p a ssed th rou g h th eir h an ds du rin g the m on th . earlier, reflectin g the ex ten siv e T rea su ry refin a n cin g d u rin g In the m u n icip a l m a rket, d e m a n d w as less brisk. T o ta l F e b ru a ry 1 9 5 7 . P o r tfo lio s o f oth er secu rities r o se b y 1 1 4 p u b lic offerin g s fo r n ew ca p ita l w ere again la rge— 4 7 4 m il m illion , c o m p a r e d w ith an in crease o f 8 m illio n th e y ea r lio n d olla rs— a lth ou gh som ew h a t sm aller th an in the p re b e fo r e . T o ta l loa n s an d in vestm ents thus d e clin e d b y o n ly v iou s m on th o r in F e b ru a ry 1 9 5 6 . In v e s to r interest in m a n y o f these offerin g s w as relatively lim ited , h ow e v e r, 5 1 3 m illion , in con tra st to a d r o p o f 1 ,1 3 7 m illio n in the co rr e s p o n d in g fo u r w eek s a y ea r earlier. p a rticu la rly in th e latter p a rt o f the m on th , an d the slow d istrib u tion o f som e issues in to the h an ds o f u ltim ate in v estors resu lted in so m e in crea se in d ea ler p o r tfo lio s . M em ber Table II Weekly Changes in Principal Assets and Liabilities of the Weekly Reporting Member Banks B a n k C r e d it (In m illions o f dollars) T h e d eclin e in total lo a n s at w e e k ly re p o rtin g m em b er Statement weeks ended ba n k s le v e le d o ff in th e fo u r w eek s en d ed F e b ru a ry 2 0 , Item Jan. 30 fo llo w in g u nu su ally h ea v y n et rep ay m en ts in the op e n in g w eeks o f 1 9 5 7 . B o r r o w in g at th ese ba n k s w as r e d u ce d b y 1 0 6 m illio n d olla rs o v e r th e fo u r -w e e k p e r io d , c o m m illio n dolla rs in the tw o w eek s e n d ed F eb ru a ry 6 , bu t in crea sed b y 191 m illio n in the tw o fo llo w in g w eek s. R e a l Total loans adjusted*----- p a re d w ith d eclin es o f 1 ,9 2 2 m illio n dolla rs d u rin g the p a ra b le p e r io d a y ear earlier. B u siness loa n s fe ll b y 1 7 4 estate loa n s, “ all o th e r ” loa n s (la rg ely to c o n s u m e rs ), an d loa n s to secu rity b r o k e rs an d dealers w ere som ew h a t lo w e r o n b a la n ce. T r a d e c o n c e rn s, c o m m o d ity dealers, co n s tr u c tio n firm s, an d p r o ce s s o r s o f f o o d , liq u o r, an d t o b a c c o c o n tin u e d to m a k e n et rep ay m en ts o n b a la n ce , w h ile the p u b lic utility an d tran sp ortation g ro u p r e d u c e d b o r r o w in g s after h aving Feb. 13 Feb. 20p Assete Loans and investments: Loans: Commercial and industrial. loans........................................ Agricultural loans................... Security loans.......................... Real estate loans.................... All other loans (largely consumer).............................. p r e ce d in g fo u r w eek s an d 65 m illion dollars in the c o m Feb. 6 Change from Dec. 26, 1956 to Feb. 20, 1957p - 84 5 4- 29 - 17 + 2 - 79 + 90 8 45 20 + + + 91 4 71 12 +100 4 - 14 — 15 — — — 931 29 585 85 254 35 + 10 - 30 - - 112 + 48 + 37 -2 ,0 2 8 Investments: U.S. Government securities: Treasury bills...................... Other....................................... -2 2 6 3 + 238 58 -1 8 6 - 63 +169 - 32 — - 510 335 T otal................................... Other securities....................... -2 2 9 + 22 _ + 180 64 -2 4 9 - 40 +137 + 68 + 845 18 Total investments.............. -2 0 7 116 -2 8 9 +205 - 827 228 -2 4 1 +242 - 2 ,8 5 5 143 +377 — 275 - + 8 +105 - 2 ,0 1 0 Total loans and investments -2 8 6 _ Loans to banks................................. -1 4 4 offset b y sm aller-th a n -u su al rep a y m en ts b y sales fin an ce Loans adjusted* and “ other” securities......................................... — 57 48 c o m p a n ie s an d b y substantial in creases in b o r r o w in g b y Liabilities m a n u factu rers o f m etals an d m etal p r o d u c ts , textile p r o Demand deposits adjusted.......... Time deposits except Government.................................. U. S. Government deposits......... Interbank demand deposits: -2 2 0 -1 .2 0 2 -4 5 1 -1 3 2 -1 ,9 2 3 4- 39 + 167 4+ 69 80 + - 30 29 + 62 +675 + - -6 8 3 — 57 + 484 12 +162 - 35 — 350 + 61 -1 ,1 7 6 147 in crea sed th em earlier in the year. T h e se d eclin es w ere d u cers, an d firm s in the p etro le u m , c o a l, ch em ica ls, and ru b b e r g ro u p . L a rg e ly b e ca u se o f the h ea v y repaym en ts in Janu ary, total bu siness loa n s at the w e e k ly rep ortin g ba n k s h a v e d e c lin e d 9 3 1 m illio n d olla rs sin ce th e b e g in n in g o f the y ear, c o m p a r e d w ith a c o n tra ctio n o f 4 3 9 m illio n d olla rs in the sam e p e r io d a y ea r earlier. 144 476 863 p Preliminary. * Exclusive of loans to banks and after deduction of valuation reserves; figures for the individual loan classifications are shown gross and may not, therefore, add to the totals shown. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS tiveness o f m on eta ry p o lic y ” . T h e re d u c tio n c a m e against M o n e ta r y T re n d s an d P o lic ie s T h e B a n k o f E n g la n d r e d u c e d its d is co u n t rate to 5 a b a ck g ro u n d o f r e ce d in g in flation ary pressu res an d a d e p e r cen t as o f F eb ru a ry 7, fr o m the 5 V i p e r cen t rate in clin e in the liq u id ity o f the b a n k in g system an d in interest fo r c e since F eb ru a ry 16, 1 9 5 6 rates. (s e e c h a r t ). A c c o r d in g T h e indu strial in vestm en t b o o m , the m a in fa c to r to the B a n k ’ s G o v e r n o r , the m o v e ca rried “ n o im p lica tion b eh in d the in flation ary pressu res o f 1 9 5 5 -5 6 , has b een o f a ch a n g e o f p o li c y ” , an d the B ritish C h a n c e llo r o f the lev elin g o ff, w h ile residen tial b u ild in g has actu ally b e e n E x ch e q u e r stated that the re d u c tio n w as d esign ed sim ply d eclin in g. M a in ly as a result o f a d r o p in a u to m o b ile o u t “ to en a b le the B a n k o f E n g la n d to m ain tain the fu ll e ffe c put, the industrial p r o d u c tio n in d e x tow a rd the en d o f 1 9 5 6 29 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK years h a d w e a k e n e d the B a n k o f E n g la n d ’ s m o n e ta ry c o n trol, an d n ecessitated the relia n ce o n directiv es b y th e BRITISH INTEREST RATES Per cent au th orities to the c o m m e r cia l ba n k s. In lin e w ith th e fa ll Per cent in m a rk et in terest rates, th e rate o n n ew loa n s w ith a m atu rity o f m o r e than five years, m a d e b y the P u b lic W o r k s L o a n s F u n d to the lo c a l au th orities, has b e e n r e d u ce d Va p e r cen t to 5V i. T h e R e s e rv e B a n k o f In d ia raised to 4 p e r cen t fr o m 3 V2 , as o f F e b ru a ry 1, its interest rate o n ad va n ces to c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s against g ov e rn m e n t an d oth er elig ib le secu rities. W h ile the B a n k ’ s rate o n ad va n ces granted u n d er the B ill M a r k e t S ch em e w as left u n ch a n g ed at 3 Vi p e r cen t, the stam p du ty o n bills o f e x ch a n g e w as in crea sed to V i p e r cen t, as a result o f w h ich the c o s t o f su ch b o r r o w in g w as also b ro u g h t to 4 p e r cen t. T h e se ch a n g es t o o k p la c e in the w a k e o f a 16 p e r cen t rise in w h olesa le p rices d u rin g 1 9 5 6 and a loss in ex tern a l reserves o f a b o u t o n e th ird du rin g the last n in e m on th s o f the year. In o r d e r to h elp alleviate th ese strains, th e au th orities h av e also taken d isin flation ary fisca l m easu res. O n N ovem ber 30, the g ov e rn m e n t in tr o d u ce d a su p p lem en tary b u d g e t that p r o v id e d in ter alia fo r the r e im p o s itio n o f a ca p ita l gains tax, an in crea se in the “ su p erta x ” rates, a d d ition a l ex cise b o n d s , 1 9 6 5 - 7 5 , mon th ly a v e r a g e s . Treasury b i l l s : w e i g h t e d monthly a v e r a g e s o f w e e k l y a ll ot me n t rates. February data pa rtl y e st i m a t e d . S o ur ce : Bank of England. du ties o n certain d o m e stic p r o d u c ts , an d a rise in th e c u s tom s du ties o n m a n y im p orts. D e sp ite the an ticip ated in crea se in ta x reven u es, h o w e v e r, th e g ov ern m en t still plan s a substantial a m ou n t o f d eficit fin an cin g . w as slightly lo w e r th an a y ea r earlier. F u rth erm ore, fo r the first tim e sin ce early 1 9 5 4 , v a ca n cie s in in du stry w ere fe w e r than the u n e m p lo y e d , a lth ou gh the latter still re m a in ed a v ery sm all fr a c tio n o f th e la b o r fo r c e . T h e se re d u c e d d em a n d p ressu res in the U n ite d K in g d o m also co n trib u te d to a n o ta b le im p ro v e m e n t in th e c o u n tr y ’ s b a la n ce o f p a ym en ts o n cu rren t a c c o u n t; th e latter sh o w e d a surplus o f 1 4 4 m illio n p o u n d s in Ja n u a ry-Ju n e 1 9 5 6 , and despite th e cu rren t difficu lties c o n n e c te d w ith the M id d le E a st crisis, “ a sm all b u t b y n o m ea n s u nsubstan tial su rplu s” f o r the y ea r en d in g Ju n e 1 9 5 7 is a n ticip ated , a c c o rd in g to an o fficia l statem ent. T h e im p ro v e d e c o n o m ic b a la n ce in the U n ited K in g d o m F rom D ecem b e r 7 to F eb ru a ry 1 th e average T rea su ry b ill ten d er rate d e clin e d fr o m 5 .0 4 p e r cen t to 4 .5 4 an d, after the d iscou n t rate w as cut, fell fu rth er to 4 .1 5 o n F e b ru a ry 2 2 . C o n s o l p rices h ave risen m a rk ed ly du rin g the last th ree m on th s, an d o n F eb ru a ry 2 8 y ie ld e d 4 .5 5 p e r cen t, as against 4 .9 8 at the en d o f N o v e m b e r . im p o rt licen sin g sch em e that h a d b e e n in effe ct sin ce 1 9 5 5 . H e a v y cuts w e re m a d e in im p o r t q u ota s f o r su ch c o n su m er an d p r o d u c e r g o o d s as th e au th orities b e lie v e d c o u ld b e re p la c e d b y in crea sed d o m e stic p r o d u c tio n . N e w restraints w ere also p la c e d o n th e sp en d in g o f fo r e ig n ex ch a n g e fo r travelin g a b ro a d . In C a n a d a , the T re a su ry b ill rate c o n tin u e d to rise du r in g m o s t o f F e b ru a ry ; at the th ird ten d er in the m on th the av erag e T rea su ry b ill ten d er r e a c h e d 3 .8 1 p e r cen t, an alltim e high , bu t fe ll to 3 .7 6 at the fo u rth ten der. L o n g -te rm g o v e rn m e n t b o n d yield s, o n the oth er h an d, d e clin e d d u r set the stage f o r a d e clin e in sh ort-term m a rk et interest rates an d a r e c o v e r y in th e b o n d m a rk et. In a d d ition , o n Janu ary 1, the In d ia n G o v e r n m e n t term in a ted the lib era l in g F e b ru a ry to the lev els that h a d p re v a ile d at th e turn o f the y ear, w h ile sh ort an d m e d iu m -te rm yield s fe ll ev en fu rth er. D u rin g F e b ru a ry , the c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s’ bu siness loa n s rem a in ed at a ro u n d th e y e a r -e n d lev el, w h ile their h o ld in g s o f g ov e rn m e n t b o n d s in crea sed c o n s id e ra b ly ; the b a n k s’ ratio o f liq u id assets (c a s h , d a y -to -d a y loa n s, and T rea su ry b ills ) to d ep osits r o se to 17 p e r cen t, as against th e agreed m in im u m o f 15 p e r cen t. In the co u r se o f these d e v e lo p m ents in the m o n e y an d b o n d m arkets, the au th orities o n F eb ru a ry 14 floa ted a 3 0 0 m illio n p o u n d 3 Vi p e r cen t F u n d in g S tock , 1 9 9 9 -2 0 0 4 , p r ic e d to g iv e a g ross re d e m p E xchange R ates Sterling rates m o v e d som ew h a t lo w e r du rin g F eb ru a ry , T h is d eb t o p e r a tio n w as d e as u n certain ty o v e r the M id d le E a stern situ ation con tin u ed sign ed to fu rther th e g ov e rn m e n t’ s d eb t fu n d in g p r o g r a m to b e a dep ressin g fa c to r in a relatively qu iet m a rket. and to facilitate a r e d u ctio n in the b a n k s’ liq u id ity ratios A m e r ic a n -a c c o u n t sterling w as q u o te d as h igh as $ 2 . 8 0 % 2 tion y ield o f 4 .5 0 p e r cen t. (c a s h , ca ll loa n s, an d T rea su ry an d c o m m e r cia l bills to as it m et w ith fa ir c o m m e r cia l d em a n d early in th e m on th . total d e p o s it s ) ; the in crease in these ratios in th e last tw o A ft e r th e a n n ou n cem en t that B rita in ’ s g o ld a n d d o lla r 30 MONTHLY REVIEW, MARCH 1957 reserves h a d d e cre a se d 4 9 m illio n d olla rs d u rin g Janu ary, fo r w a r d sterling, d iscou n ts w ere again n a rrow er at % h o w e v e r, an d w ith substantial b id d in g fo r d olla rs in L o n d o n 1 2%2 an d cents at the m o n th ’ s en d. — p rin cip a lly b y o il interests— the rate d e c lin e d ; b y F e b r u T ra n sfera b le sterling m et w ith r e d u c e d d e m a n d , p a r ary 6 it h a d slip p ed to $ 2 . 7 9 1% 6 , a b o u t the lev el p rev a il ticu larly o n th e p a rt o f sugar interests, an d d e c lin e d to in g d u rin g the rem a in d er o f the m on th . O il interests w ere im p orta n t b o th as b u y ers a n d su ppliers o f sterling in the N e w Y o r k m a rk et w h ile, in the latter p a rt o f the m on th , d ia m o n d dealers w ere n o te w o rth y p u rch asers. O n F ebru ary 2 8 A m e r ic a n -a c c o u n t sterling w as q u o te d at $ 2 . 7 9 % . A lth o u g h the d eclin e in th e B ritish b a n k rate fr o m 5 Vi p e r c e n t to 5 p e r cen t a n n o u n c e d o n F e b ru a ry 7 h a d v ir tu ally n o e ffe ct in the sp o t m a rk et, the c h a n g e w as n o tic e $ 2 .7 6 2 0 at m id m o n th . B y F e b ru a ry 2 8 the rate h a d r e c o v e r e d o n ly slightly to $ 2 .7 6 3 5 . Securities sterling flu ctu ated b etw een $ 2 .64V 4 an d $ 2 .6 1 V i, w ith rates ten d in g to w a rd the lo w e r p a rt o f the ran ge. T h e C a n a d ia n d o lla r w e a k e n e d slightly fr o m $ 1 . 0 4 1% 2 to $ 1 .0 4 Vi in a rath er q u iet m a rk et du rin g th e first h a lf o f F eb ru a ry . S u b sequ en tly g o o d d e m a n d fo r th e C a n a d ia n ab le in th e fo r w a r d m a rk et w h ere d iscou n ts o n three an d six d o lla r d e v e lo p e d la rg ely as a resu lt o f v a riou s secu rity m o n th s’ sterling d r o p p e d to 11/1Q a n d l 5/s cen ts— th e n ar issues a n n o u n c e d b y C a n a d ia n c o m p a n ie s , m o s t n o ta b ly r o w e s t sin ce F e b ru a ry a n d M a y 1 9 5 5 , resp ectiv ely . A fte r the T ra n s-C a n a d a P ip e L in e s, L td ., a n d d irect in vestm en t w id en in g to 1 y16 an d 2 y22 cen ts o n g o o d offerin g s o f n eed s; o n F e b ru a ry 2 8 the rate again s t o o d at $ 1 . 0 4 1% 2 - OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS ABROAD O p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s o f s o m e fo r m are c o n d u c te d oth ers th ey c a n d ea l in an y b o n d s that th ey th em selv es b y th e cen tra l ba n k s o f m o s t cou n tries w h ich h av e, o r are d e cla re suitable d e v e lo p in g , a ctive m o n e y m ark ets. th ey c a n u n derta k e o p e ra tio n s in sp ecia l m o rtg a g e b o n d s T h e k in d an d exten t (A u s tr ia , G u a te m a la ); som etim es, t o o , o f su ch op e ra tio n s , an d their relative im p o rta n ce a m on g (B o liv ia , E l S a lv a d or, N o r w a y ) . th e to o ls o f m o n e ta ry c o n tro l, v a ry w id ely . In this c o u n cen tra l ba n k s, p a rticu la rly in the fin an cially le s s -d e v e lo p e d try o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s— i.e ., p u rch a ses an d sales o f cou n tries, h av e p o w e r to issue their o w n secu rities f o r G overn m en t m on eta ry p o lic y p u r p o s e s .2 secu rities (a n d b a n k ers’ a c c e p ta n c e s ) as F in ally, a n u m b e r o f d ire cte d b y the O p e n M a r k e t C o m m itte e o f the F ed era l In m a n y cou n tries, h o w e v e r, the p u rch a se o f g ov e rn m e n t R e s e rv e System — h a v e b e c o m e the c h ie f in stru m en t o f secu rities b y the cen tra l b a n k is circ u m s c r ib e d b y leg isla cred it c o n tr o l, p r o v id in g a flex ib le m ea n s o f in flu en cin g tion as to the tota l a m ou n t, th e w ays in w h ich th e p u rch a ses the v o lu m e o f b a n k reserves an d th ereb y h elp in g to m a in m a y b e c o n d u c te d , an d the m atu rity o f the secu rities that tain a p p rop ria te cred it c o n d itio n s .1 O u tsid e th e U n ited m a y b e p u rch a sed . States, h o w e v e r, o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s are a fu ll-fled g ed g ov e rn m e n t secu rities, w h eth er a cq u ire d in the m a rk et o r cred it p o lic y in stru m en t in o n ly a fe w cou n tries, n ota b ly d irectly fr o m the g ov ern m en t, som etim es are stipu lated in L im its o n cen tra l b a n k h old in g s o f the U n ited K in g d o m an d C a n a d a . E lsew h ere, su ch o p e r a a b solu te am ou n ts (B e lg iu m ) o r are related to th e b a n k ’ s tion s are lim ited in s c o p e ; th ey are n o t alw ays u n derta k en ca p ita l a n d /o r d e m a n d liabilities (P a k ista n , V e n e z u e la ). at the cen tra l b a n k ’ s in itiative; th ey are in so m e in stan ces S u ch p ro v isio n s are g en erally d esign ed to lim it th e re co u rs e e ffe cte d d ire ctly w ith b a n k s o r oth er in vestors; an d th ey o f g ov ern m en ts to cen tra l b a n k cred it. m a y b e c o n d u c te d in secu rities oth er th an g ov ern m en t son , the leg islation o f a n u m b er o f cou n tries, n o ta b ly o b lig a tio n s o r b a n k ers’ a cce p ta n ce s. F o r th e sa m e rea D esp ite th e institu F ra n ce, p roh ib its d irect p u rch a ses o f secu rities fr o m the tion a l d ifficu lties e n co u n te re d in m a n y fo r e ig n cou n tries, g ov ern m en t, w h ile in C u b a the cen tra l b a n k is n o rm a lly o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s a b ro a d are n everth eless rap id ly p erm itted to b u y o n ly g ov ern m en t secu rities that h a v e b een g a in in g in im p o rta n ce . ou tstan din g fo r m o r e th an o n e year. Sim ilarly, so m e c e n tral b a n k law s p r o v id e in effect that o p e n m a rk et o p e r a T he L egal and tion s m a y n o t b e ca rried o u t to h elp in the fin a n cin g o f In s t it u t io n a l Se t t in g B e fo r e the thirties, o n ly a fe w fo r e ig n cen tral ba n k s had leg a l a u th ority to c o n d u c t o p e n m a rk et o p era tion s, bu t to d a y p ra ctica lly all are e m p o w e r e d to dea l in g ov ern m en t an d g o v ern m en t-g u a ra n teed secu rities. M a n y fo r e ig n c e n tral b a n k s also h av e au th ority to p u rch a se an d sell b a n k ers’ a cce p ta n ce s an d c o m m e r c ia l b ills. m o r e o v e r, th ey ca n o p e ra te in In certain cou n tries, n o n g o v e rn m e n t (A u stra lia , D e n m a rk , Ja pan , M e x i c o ) , bonds w h ile in a fe w g ov ern m en t deficits, an d s p e cify that su ch o p e r a tio n s m a y ta k e p la ce o n ly in o r d e r to “ regu late the m o n e y m a rk e t” (A u s tria , F ran ce) or fo r “ m on eta ry p o lic y pu rposes” (C h ile , K o r e a , the P h ilip p in e s ). In a d d ition , s o m e cen tra l b a n k law s e n jo in the cen tra l b a n k fr o m p u rch a sin g secu ri ties du rin g in flation ary p e r io d s (C e y lo n , C h ile, C uba, K o re a , the P h ilip p in e s ). In som e cases th ere are leg a l restriction s o n the m a x i m u m m atu rity o f g o v e rn m e n t secu rities that c a n b e in 1 For a description of techniques in the United States, see Robert V. 2 E.g., Ceylon, Chile, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Roosa, Federal Reserve Operations in the Money and Government El Salvador, Honduras, Korea, Mexico, Paraguay, and the Philippines. Securities Markets, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, July 1956. 31 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK S u ch restriction s either It is thus n o t su rprisin g that o p e n m a rk et op e ra tio n s p r o v id e that th e secu rities m u st b e sh ort term w ith ou t are rarely u sed a b ro a d in the sam e c o n tin u o u s an d b r o a d defin in g the m atu rity m a n n er as in this c o u n tr y ; o n ly in the U n ited K in g d o m and elu d ed in cen tra l b a n k p o r tfo lio s . sp e cify m a x im u m (F r a n c e , V e n e z u e la ) m atu rities, ran gin g fr o m or actu ally tw o years C a n a d a , as alrea dy n o te d , are su ch o p e ra tio n s e m p lo y e d (S w itze rla n d ) to five years ( M e x i c o ) o r ev en ten (G u a te as a fu ll-fled g ed cred it p o lic y in stru m en t. m a la ). In oth er cou n tries, su ch as C e y lo n , the statute tries, su ch o p e ra tio n s are relied u p o n fo r m o r e lim ited p u r requ ires the cen tral b a n k to m a in tain a d eq u a te h old in g s o f p o s e s : the e v e n in g -o u t o f d a ily m o n e y m a rk et flu ctu a tion s In oth er c o u n sh ort-term secu rities to en a b le it m o r e rea d ily to co n tra ct (F r a n c e ) o r the offsettin g o f sea son al an d oth er “ te m p o its cred it if su ch a c o n tra ctio n b e c o m e s n ecessary . ra ry ” L e g a l lim ita tion s o n th e g ov e rn m e n t secu rities h old in g s ch a n g es in b a n k liq u id ity (G e r m a n y , Japan , the N e th e r la n d s ). C en tra l b a n k o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s h ave o f cen tra l ban ks, h o w e v e r, are less freq u en t to d a y than also served in m a n y fo r e ig n cou n tries m erely as a m eans s om e years a g o . T h u s, th ey w ere rela x ed in S ou th A fr ic a to su p p ort g ov e rn m e n t b o n d p r ic e s; su ch o p e ra tio n s , h o w in 19 41 an d in S w itzerlan d in 1 9 5 3 ; th ey w ere r e m o v e d ev er, h a v e in recen t years b e e n a b a n d o n e d o r e m p lo y e d c o m p le te ly in N e w Z e a la n d in 1 9 3 6 , th e N eth erlan ds in m o r e flex ib ly in m o s t E u r o p e a n a n d B ritish C o m m o n 1 9 4 5 , In d ia in 1 9 4 8 , an d C a n a d a in 1 9 5 4 . In so m e c o u n w ealth cou n tries in o r d e r to r e in fo r c e oth er m o n e ta ry m ea s tries, su ch as D en m a rk , N o r w a y , S w ed en , an d th e U n ited ures su ch as d is co u n t rate in creases. K in g d o m , su ch leg a l restriction s h a v e n ever ex isted. le s s -d e v e lo p e d fin an cial system s, cen tra l b a n k o p e n m ark et L e g a l au th ority a lo n e is, o f co u r se , n o t su fficien t to en a b le a cen tra l b a n k to c o n d u c t m ea n in g fu l o p e n m a rk et op e ra tio n s h a v e b e e n u sed p rim a rily as p a rt o f the o v er-a ll effo rt to b r o a d e n th e cou n tries’ ca p ita l m arkets. o p era tion s. A n a p p rop ria te in stitu tional fr a m e w o r k is re T h e U n it e d K in g d o m q u ired , a n d in m a n y fo r e ig n cou n tries th e la c k o f such a fr a m e w o r k is a seriou s ba rrier to th e d e v e lo p m e n t o f o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s as an e ffe ctiv e in stru m en t o f m o n e tary p o lic y . T h e m o s t im p orta n t an d m o s t fre q u en t o b stacle is the la c k o f a b r o a d an d a ctive m a rk et fo r the kin ds o f secu rities u su ally co n s id e r e d a p p rop ria te f o r cen tral b a n k o w n ersh ip . In the a b se n ce o f a flex ib le m o n e y m a r ket, m o r e o v e r, the c o m m e r c ia l ba n k s ten d to o p e ra te w ith am ple e x cess reserves an d th eir ca sh ratios ten d to flu ctu ate w id e ly (s in c e th e b a n k s h a v e n o oth er re a d y w a y o f adju sting their p o s it io n s ); u n d er su ch circu m sta n ces, c e n tral b a n k sales o r p u rch a ses o f secu rities la c k a fu lcru m in the fo r m o f a stable ca sh ra tio o n w h ich to g et lev era ge, so that ch a n g es in b a n k reserves fo llo w in g u p o n su ch trans a ction s m a y n o t m aterially a ffect the a vailab ility o f cred it fr o m the c o m m e r c ia l ba n k s. A som ew h a t le s s -c o m m o n an d less-seriou s d ifficu lty is the risk that ch a n g es in c o m m e r c ia l b a n k reserve p o s itio n s b rou g h t a b o u t b y o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s m a y in som e in stan ces b e so rea d ily o ffse t b y ch a n g es in b o r r o w in g fr o m the cen tra l b a n k th rou g h d iscou n ts an d ad va n ces, as to lea ve the av ailab ility o f cred it fr o m th e ba n k s la rg ely u n a ffected . T h is risk is m in im ized , o f c o u rse , in sofa r as c o m m e r cia l ba n k s are relu cta n t to in cu r in d eb ted n ess o r In cou n tries w ith In the U n ited K in g d o m , th e in stitu tion al c o n d itio n s fo r e ffectiv e o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s h a v e lo n g b e e n presen t. T h e L o n d o n m o n e y an d ca p ita l m arkets are a m o n g the m o s t d e v e lo p e d in the w o rld , a n d th e c o m m e r c ia l ba n k s o p e ra te w ith stable ca sh ratios. D ir e c t b o r r o w in g at th e cen tra l b a n k th rou g h th e “ d is co u n t w in d o w ” is n o t avail a b le to the c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s, an d th e b o r r o w in g d o n e b y d is co u n t h ou ses ten ds to b e lim ited b y th e p en a lty effect o f the d is co u n t rate, w h ich rem ain s con sisten tly a b o v e m ost m o n e y m a rk et rates.4 F in a lly , th e B a n k o f E n g la n d has u su ally h a d an am p le secu rities p o r t fo lio fo r its o p e ra tio n s , a n d its p u rch a ses an d sales are k n o w n to b e su p p lem en ted b y the o p e ra tio n s o f the la rg e g o v e rn m e n t fu n d s. T h e B a n k o f E n g la n d ’s o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s , w h ich orig in a ted in the last cen tu ry, w ere d e v e lo p e d m ore fu lly in the tw enties an d thirties. D u r in g the w a r an d the early p o s tw a r years, h o w e v e r, th e B a n k k ep t the T rea su ry bill rate rigid ly p e g g e d , an d thus su p p lied fu n d s to the m a rk et at the la tter’ s in itiative. It w as o n ly in N o v e m b e r 19 51 that the T rea su ry b ill rate w as fin ally “ fr e e d ” an d the B a n k ’ s c o n tr o l o v e r th e c o s t an d av ailab ility o f credit th ereb y stren gth ened. In gen eral, the B a n k ap p ears to c o n fin e its o p e n m arket rem ain lo n g in d e b t; in m a n y cou n tries, m o r e o v e r , central o p e ra tio n s to sh ort-term secu rities. U p o n o c c a s io n , h o w b a n k d iscou n t rates are m a in tain ed as “ p en a lty rates” in ev er, the B a n k in terven es also in the m e d iu m and lon g -term o r d e r to r e d u ce the in cen tiv e to b o r r o w fr o m the central m a rk et. b a n k , o r else su ch b o r r o w in g is lim ited d irectly b y fo r m a l c o m p o s itio n o f the B a n k ’ s h o ld in g s are n o t p u b lish ed , o r in form a l d is co u n t ce ilin g s .3 F in ally, in so m e fo re ig n it is difficu lt to d eterm in e w h eth er th e sh ort-term tran sa c cou n tries the cen tra l ba n k s d o n o t p ossess a su fficien t v o l tion s are la rgely f o r the “ B a n k in g D e p a r tm e n t” , and the u m e o f secu rities suitable f o r o p e n m a rk et op era tion s, o r P artly b e ca u se data o n ch a n g es in the detailed 4 Since this borrowing is done entirely by the discount houses, the commercial banks adjust their positions by calling in their loans to the discount houses. Changes in the volume of borrowing from the central central b a n k p u rch a se are v ery sm all. bank, however, do not have the same direct and immediate influence on the availability of bank credit as in some countries where the banks 3 See "Discount Policies and Techniques Abroad” , Monthly Review, borrow directly from the central bank and where such borrowing affects June 1956. their own willingness to extend credit. the n o n -ce n tra l b a n k p o r tfo lio s o f secu rities elig ib le fo r MONTHLY REVIEW, MARCH 1957 32 C anada lo n g e r term m o r e la rg ely fo r the “ Issu e D e p a rtm e n t” . In an y event, d u rin g recen t years it seem s to b e agreed b y ob serv ers that the Bank has c o n d u c te d o p e ra tio n s A lth o u g h the B a n k o f C a n a d a w as estab lish ed o n ly in in 1 9 3 5 , its o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s h a v e alrea dy b e c o m e its lon g er term securities o n ly in o r d e r to sm o o th o u t u n d u e m a in instrum ent o f m o n e ta ry p o lic y . T h e b a sic c o n d itio n s d ev ia tion s fr o m w h a t the au th orities h av e ta k en to b e the f o r effectiv e o p e n m a rk et op era tion s seem to h a v e b e e n u n d erly in g cu rren t tren d o f p rice s. larg ely fu lfilled . T h e re has b e e n little, if an y, su ggestion b y m a rk et ob serv ers that the B a n k w as T h e C a n a d ia n b o n d m a rket, w h ich w as a lrea dy qu ite active at the tim e o f th e B a n k ’ s estab lish m en t, attem ptin g to lea d o r to d eterm in e the actu al le v e l o f p rices has sin ce w id e n e d c o n s id e r a b ly , an d in 1 9 5 4 a g en u in e an d rates fo r g o v e rn m e n t secu rities o f an y m atu rity ca te m o n e y m a rk et b eg a n to d e v e lo p , cen terin g a rou n d a b r o a d g o ry . It sh ou ld also b e p o in te d o u t that th e “ g ov ern m en t en in g m a rk et fo r C a n a d ia n T rea su ry bills. T h e C a n a d ia n b r o k e r ” — o n e o f the p rin cip a l b ro k e rs in th e g ov ern m en t c o m m e r cia l ba n k s h av e f o r so m e tim e b e e n op e ra tin g w ith b o n d m a rk et— op era tes in m e d iu m an d lo n g -te rm g o v e r n stable cash ratios, p a rticu la rly sin ce th e b ro a d e n in g o f th e m en t secu rities o n b e h a lf n o t o n ly o f the B a n k o f E n g la n d m o n e y m ark et. B o r r o w in g at the B a n k o f C a n a d a th rou g h b u t also o f the g ov ern m en t departm en ts, as w ell as o f his discou n ts an d a d va n ces b y th e ba n k s an d th rou g h sp ecia l o w n regu lar p riv ate cu stom ers. T h e B a n k ’ s tran sa ction s rep u rch a se agreem en ts b y g o v e rn m e n t secu rities dea lers is in the sh ort-term secu rities m a rk et are e x e cu te d b y an oth er in term ittent and o n a sm all scale, b e c a u se th e b a n k s re firm , its “ bill b r o k e r ” — o n e o f the L o n d o n d is co u n t h ou ses. m a in relu cta n t to b o r r o w , an d b e c a u se the d is co u n t rate T h is b r o k e r n orm a lly effects tran sa ction s w ith all o f the rem ains a b o v e sh ort-term m a rk et ra tes5 a n d thus ten ds oth er d is co u n t h ou ses as w ell as w ith the b a n k s. to d iscou ra g e su ch b o r r o w in g . In view o f the n eed to ev en o u t o r offset the fre q u e n t an d large sw ings in T rea su ry cash tran sa ction s, as w ell as oth er d is T h e B a n k o f C a n a d a b e g a n its o p e ra tio n s in the m a rk et s o o n after it w as estab lish ed. D u rin g th e w a r a n d im m e tu rban ces in the m o n e y m a rk et, th e B a n k ’ s o p e ra tio n s are diate p ostw a r years, h o w e v e r, it u n d e r to o k su p p o rt o p e r a co n tin u o u s an d thus en a b le it to m a in tain c lo s e tech n ica l tion s in the g ov e rn m e n t secu rities m a rk et to m in im ize the su rveillan ce o v e r the m arket. interest costs o f th e w a r effort. T h e first d ep a rtu re fr o m T h e B a n k o f E n g la n d ’ s o p e ra tio n s defin itely h a v e a this p o lic y o c c u r r e d in Janu ary 1 9 4 8 w h en it a b a n d o n e d d ire ct b ea rin g o n m o n e y m a rk et co n d itio n s. F o r in stan ce, its earlier p r a c tic e o f su bm ittin g d a ily lists o f b id s an d w h en the B a n k desires to b rin g a b o u t a tigh ten in g o f p res o ffers to the m a rk et. sures o n the availability o f fu n d s, it m a y ( b y shrinking its K o r e a n ou tb re a k in m id -1 9 5 0 the B a n k , a c c o r d in g to o ffi H o w e v e r , u p to th e tim e o f th e p u rch a ses o r m a k in g sales o r red eem in g m a tu rities) “ lea ve cia l statem ents, w as still p rim a rily c o n c e r n e d w ith en su ring th e m a rk et sh ort o f ca sh ” , thus fo r c in g it “ in to the b a n k ” — a rea son a b le stability o f b o n d p rice s, ev en th ou g h it w as that is, fo r c in g the d is co u n t h ou ses to b o r r o w at the d is also aim in g at k e e p in g c o m m e r cia l b a n k reserves fr o m ris c o u n t rate w h ich , as n oted , is a p en a lty rate. S u ch b o r r o w ing. in g at the B a n k o f E n g la n d in turn ten ds to in d u ce the rates. d is co u n t h ou ses to b u y fe w e r an d sell m o r e sh ort-term h ad b e e n that, b e c a u se o f the a b sen ce o f a sh ort-term m o n e y secu rities, th ereb y raising the rates o f interest o n these m arket, the c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s u sed sales o f T rea su ry b ills secu rities an d ex ertin g a restrainin g in flu en ce o n the m o n e y to the central b a n k fo r ad ju stin g their reserve p o s itio n s, S u b sequ en tly, the B a n k “ fr e e d ” sh ort-term interest O n e o f the difficu lties in the earlier p o s tw a r years m a rk et as a w h o le . T h e fr e q u e n c y w ith w h ich the m a rk et a n d the central b a n k , w h ile n o t co m m itte d to b u y in g su ch is fo r c e d “ in to the b a n k ” an d, o f c o u rse , the a m ou n t o f bills, actu ally n ever re fu s e d to d o so at fa v o r a b le p r ic e s su ch b o r r o w in g b e c o m e im p orta n t in flu en ces u p o n the in o r d e r to en su re, in the circu m sta n ces th en p reva ilin g , sp rea d b e tw e e n the m arket rates an d the d is co u n t rate. the c o m m e r cia l b a n k s’ liq u id ity. D u rin g the first years fo llo w in g the u n p eg g in g o f the T re a s ever, g ra du a lly m o d ifie d an d finally a b a n d o n e d w ith the T h is p r a c tic e w as, h o w u ry b ill rate o f 1 9 5 1 , this sp rea d w as relatively w id e, bu t in trod u ction o f n ew arran gem ents fo r d a y -to -d a y lo a n s b y in the tw o years en d ed D e c e m b e r 1 9 5 6 it w as substantially ba n k s to g ov ern m en t secu rities dealers in 1 9 5 4 an d w ith n a rro w e d . N everth eless, the B a n k o f E n g la n d ’ s op era tion s the h a v e du rin g the in flation ary p e r io d s o f recen t years m et m a rk et in stru m en ts.6 fu rther d e v e lo p m e n t of trad in g a ctivity in m oney w ith certain difficulties, as the T rea su ry fa c e d la rg e cash T h e B a n k o f C a n a d a ’ s o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s take deficits an d resorted to substantial issues o f T rea su ry bills p la ce o v e r the w h o le m atu rity ran ge o f the g o v e rn m e n t p la c e d in great p a rt w ith the b a n k in g system . A s the G o v e r n o r o f the B a n k p o in te d o u t last O c t o b e r : Unfortunately, at some periods during more recent years, it has not proved possible to match the total requirements of Government and public bodies by the sale of long-term secur ities. Floating debt has again at times become excessive, bank deposits too high and technical pressures more difficult to maintain. secu rities m a rk et an d h a v e th ree m a jo r o b je ctiv e s . T h e re is, first o f all, the d a ily activity d esign ed to m in im ize m a r 5 Since November 1956, the Bank of Canada has set the discount rate each week at lA per cent above the Treasury bill rate; see ''Inter national Monetary Developments” , Monthly Review, December 1956. Prior to this arrangement, the bill rate rose above the discount rate only on rare occasions. 6 For a discussion of the Canadian money market, see "Monetary and Banking Developments in Canada” , Monthly Review, August 1956. 33 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK ket d istu rb an ces, as w ell as op e ra tio n s to offset season al k eta b le in to m a rk eta b le secu rities. and oth er tem p ora ry ch a n g es in m a rk et liq u id ity. S e co n d ly , also, o n o c c a s io n , o p e r a te d in th e lo n g -te rm b o n d m a rket. T h e cen tra l b a n k has the B a n k has the task o f k eep in g b a n k reserves at the lev el T h e N eth erlan ds B a n k fa c e s som ew h a t sim ilar p r o b le m s d e e m e d a p p rop ria te f o r m on eta ry p o lic y p u rp o s e s. F in ally, in its o p e n m a rk et op e ra tio n s . U p to 1 9 5 2 , it is true, th ere the B a n k ’ s o p e ra tio n s are d ire cte d at b r o a d e n in g the g o v h a d b e e n an a d d ition a l o b s ta cle to o p e n m a rk et sales in ernm ent secu rities m a rket. T h e B a n k ’ s o p e ra tio n s are best that the T rea su ry w as c o n tin u o u sly selling sh ort-term secu r su m m ed u p in a 1 9 5 4 statem en t o f the th en G o v e r n o r o f ities o n tap at fix ed rates w ith ou t rega rd to its o w n im m e the B a n k o f C a n a d a , M r . T o w e rs , to the b a n k in g c o m m it diate fin a n cin g n e e d s; h o w e v e r, in m id -1 9 5 2 the T rea su ry su sp en d ed su ch sales. tee o f the C a n a d ia n H o u s e o f C o m m o n s : S in ce then, the N eth erlan ds B a n k h as en tered the m a rk et fr o m tim e to tim e, b o th as a seller As part of our programme to improve and broaden the money market for the benefit of lenders and borrowers and of our financial structure as a whole, the Bank of Canada has been a constant trader in Government of Canada securities since we opened our doors in 1935. While the total amount of our holdings of Government securities is necessarily determined by considerations of monetary policy, we have endeavored to help make a market for all Government issues and have been very substantial buyers and sellers. In a sense, we perform a jobbing function, holding the inventories which are indis pensable to a good market. Investment dealers and banks also operate in this way, although naturally on a smaller scale. We would be glad to see both dealers and banks extend their operations of this character, and have the Bank of Canada play a smaller part, although we would always expect to be a substantial participant in the market. an d as a b u y e r; o n o c c a s io n it h as rep len ish ed its securities p o r tfo lio b y tra n sform in g th e T re a su ry ’ s b o o k d eb t, in h erited fr o m the O c c u p a tio n , in to m a rk eta b le securities w ith m aturities o f u p to five y ears. B y n o w , h o w e v e r, the b o o k d e b t has b e e n grea tly r e d u c e d , a n d sin ce the B a n k ’ s cu rren t secu rities p o r t fo lio is a lso rela tively sm all, the B a n k ’s p oten tia l a m m u n ition f o r o p e n m a rk et sales is lim ited . T h e n a rrow n ess o f th e m a rk et— desp ite the o p e r a tion s o f g ov e rn m e n t secu rities dealers— has lik ew ise ten d ed to restrict th e s c o p e o f o p e n m a rk et op e ra tio n s . U p to the en d o f 1 9 5 5 the B a n k h a d c o n fin e d itself to a n n ou n cin g fr o m tim e to tim e its w illin g n ess t o sell o r b u y , at sp e cific rates, secu rities o f v a ryin g m atu rity, an d w o u ld th en w ait u p o n the r e a c tio n o f the m a rk et. C o n t in e n t a l E u r o p e S in ce th en , h o w e v e r, it has m a d e its o p e n m a rk et sales m o r e flex ib le b y d ecla rin g O n the E u r o p e a n C on tin en t, cen tra l b a n k o p e n m arket its w illingness to sell secu rities o f sp ecified m atu rity at rates op era tion s h av e so fa r rem a in ed lim ited , c o m p a r e d w ith to b e d eterm in ed th rou g h b id s fr o m the m arket, p r o v id e d th ose in the U n ited K in g d o m an d C a n a d a , b o th b e ca u se the rates are a c c e p ta b le to it; the in itiative as regards the o f n a rrow er m ark ets an d f o r oth er rea son s. In W est G e r am ou n ts w h ich the B a n k m a y b e a b le to b u y still rem ains m any, the o p e ra tio n s o f the B a n k d eu tsch er L a n d e r in la rg ely w ith the m a rk et. In a d d ition , to w a r d the en d o f their presen t fo r m b e g a n o n ly in 1 9 5 5 w h en the B a n k w as 1 9 5 6 the B a n k resorted to sh ort-term rep u rch a se ag ree c o n fr o n te d w ith a g ro w in g n e e d to r e d u c e the liq u id ity o f m en ts w ith b a n k s an d a p p a ren tly also w ith g ov ern m en t the ba n k in g system b e ca u se o f the la rge in flo w o f g o ld and securities dealers at rates set b y itself. foreig n ex ch a n g e, an d y et h a d o n ly a n egligib le securities p o r tfo lio . In F ra n ce, w h ere ba n k s an d d is co u n t h ou ses pa rticip ate In o r d e r to ob ta in su itable secu rities fo r the in a fa irly w ell estab lish ed m o n e y m a rk et, th e cen tra l B a n k , the B a n k an d the g ov e rn m e n t a g reed to tra n sform b a n k ’ s op era tion s are lim ited to sm o o th in g -o u t th e p e r io d ic certain n on m a rk eta b le secu rities h eld b y th e B a n k (th e distu rb an ces in the flo w o f fu n d s in the m a rk et. T h e b u lk so -c a lle d “ eq u a liza tion cla im s” crea ted d u rin g the 1 9 4 8 o f the B a n k ’s tran sa ction s, ou trigh t as w ell as u n d er rep u r c u rre n cy r e fo r m ) ch a se agreem en ts, is in T re a su ry b ills issu ed w ith m aturities in to sh ort-term m a rk eta b le securities w ith m aturities o f u p to tw o years. T h e op e ra tio n s o f the o f u p to tw o years, a n d takes p la c e th rou g h a sp ecia l b ro k e r. B a n k deu tsch er L a n d e r in the sh ort-term m a rk et are p r i T h e lim ited s c o p e o f the B a n k o f F r a n c e ’ s o p era tion s, as its m arily d esign ed to o ffse t flu ctu a tion s in th e liq u id ity o f G o v e r n o r stated in a recen t an nual rep ort, is the result o f the ba n k in g system . tw o fa c to r s : first, the g ov ern m en t, c o n fr o n t e d w ith a large H o w e v e r , in the a b sen ce o f a b r o a d sh ort-term m arket, the B a n k ’ s op era tion s are rather p a ssive deficit, is cu rren tly issu in g T rea su ry bills o n tap at net yield s sin ce it restricts itself to a n n ou n cin g , an d fr o m tim e to tim e h igh er th an th e d is co u n t rate, w ith th e result that c o m m e r ch a n gin g, the selling an d bu y in g rates fo r the securities it cia l ba n k s are e n co u ra g e d to b o r r o w at the B a n k o f F r a n ce ; deals in. T h e actu al tran sa ction s th en d e p e n d o n the d e s e co n d ly , th e B a n k o f F r a n ce is u n d er leg al o b lig a tio n to c ision s o f the ba n k s w ith w h ich the cen tra l b a n k deals. b u y at its d is co u n t rate all T rea su ry bills o ffe re d to it in the N everth eless, the B a n k ’ s o p e n m a rk et sales h a v e b e e n v ery m a rk et w h en th ey are th ree m on th s o r less fr o m m aturity. large du ring recen t m on th s w h en it has e n d e a v o re d to offset the effects o f the h e a v y in flo w o f fo r e ig n ex ch a n g e. In the S can d in a via n cou n tries, o p e n m a rk et op era tion s At h ave b e e n c o n d u c te d la rg ely in lo n g e r term g ov ern m en t the beg in n in g o f this year, after net sales o f su ch secu ri securities. In D en m a rk , w h ere the cen tra l b a n k h a d alrea dy ties h a d alm ost rea ch ed the a u th orized lim it o f 2 b illio n b e e n o p era tin g in the b o n d m a rk et in the in terw ar p e r io d , D eu tsch e m arks, the B a n k n eg otia ted an agreem en t w ith the B a n k is k n o w n to b e fa irly active an d to ex ert an im the g ov ern m en t to tran sform a fu rther b illio n o f n o n m a r porta n t in flu en ce o n b o n d p rices. D u rin g m o s t o f the p o s t MONTHLY REVIEW, MARCH 1957 34 O t h e r C o u n t r ie s w a r years, h o w e v e r, it has n o t su p p o rte d lo n g -te rm y ield s rigid ly , b u t in stead has c o n d u c te d its tran sa ction s m a in ly In oth er cou n tries o f the B ritish C o m m o n w e a lth , cen tral o n the basis o f gen era l m o n e ta ry p o lic y con s id e ra tio n s . In b a n k o p e n m a rk et o p e r a tio n s , w h ile n o t v e ry ex ten siv e, N o r w a y , th e cen tra l b a n k d id n o t en ga ge in o p e n m arket h a v e g en erally h e lp e d to b r o a d e n th e ca p ita l m a rk ets an d op era tion s until qu ite recen tly , an d its tran sa ction s h ave at the sam e tim e h a v e ex e rte d s o m e in flu en ce o n th e b a n k m a in ly b e e n o n th e b u y in g side. In 1 9 5 5 it re p la c e d its in g system s. In th e U n io n o f S ou th A fr ic a , th e stated aim fo r m e r rigid su p p orts b y m o r e flex ib le secu rities pu rch ases, o f the cen tra l b a n k ’ s o p e n m a rk et p o lic y has p rin cip a lly an d last y e a r it actu ally r e d u c e d , o n b a la n ce , its p o r tfo lio . b e e n to m ain tain o r d e rly c o n d itio n s in the g o v e rn m e n t S in ce th e B a n k ’ s secu rities p o r t fo lio is lim ited , it recen tly b o n d m a rk et a n d to estab lish a p p ro p ria te rela tion sh ip s p r o p o s e d to th e F in a n ce M in istry to c o n v e r t a p a rt o f b etw een the rates fo r d ifferen t m aturities. T h e B a n k q u o te s th e g o v e r n m e n t’ s b o o k d eb t, in h erited fr o m th e w artim e b u y in g an d selling p r ic e s fo r g o v e rn m e n t secu rities, ba sed O c c u p a tio n , in to sh ort-term b o n d s that w o u ld thus b e o n a p a ttern o f rates that it d e c id e s o n fr o m tim e to tim e a v ailab le to the B a n k fo r sale in its m a rk et op e ra tio n s . a c c o r d in g to T h e op e ra tio n s o f the S w edish cen tra l b a n k h a v e b e e n a T h u s , th e B a n k in S ep tem b er 1 9 5 5 , b esid es in crea sin g the m a jo r fa c to r in the b o n d m a rk et d u rin g the p o s tw a r years. d is co u n t rate, a n n o u n c e d that it w o u ld o p e r a te in the U p to O c t o b e r 1 9 5 4 , th ey h a d b e e n g ea red to the g o v e r n b o n d m a rk et in o r d e r to b rin g th e y ie ld s o n sh ort an d lo n g circu m sta n ces an d m o n e ta ry p o lic y m en t’ s ch e a p m o n e y p o lic y ; at that tim e, h o w e v e r, the B a n k term g overn m en ts u p to certain lev els. a n n o u n ce d , as p a rt o f its m o n e ta ry restraint p o lic y , that it cen tra l b a n k ’ s o p e r a tio n s t o aim s. In A u stra lia , the su p p o rt g o v e rn m e n t b o n d n o t o n ly w o u ld abstain fr o m su p p ortin g g ov e rn m e n t b o n d s p rices h av e until recen tly b e e n relatively rigid, an d h ave b u t also w o u ld , if n ecessa ry , sell secu rities in the m arket at tim es in v o lv e d v e ry la rg e a d d ition s to b a n k reserves. in o rd e r to in crease the e ffect o f its cred it restraint m ea s H o w e v e r , in the sp rin g o f 1 9 5 6 , as p a rt o f the g o v e r n m e n t’ s ures. S in ce th en the R ik s b a n k has b e e n in the m a rk et b oth restraint m easu res, the B a n k r e d u c e d its su p p ort o f the as a seller a n d a b u y e r, an d ap p aren tly has n o t su pp lied b o n d m a rk et “ to a m o r e n o rm a l le v e l” , and lo n g -te rm yield s the ba n k s w ith the fu ll a m ou n t o f reserves that w o u ld h ave r o se b y V2 p er cen t. It sh o u ld a lso b e n o te d that th e B a n k b e e n n e e d e d to m eet all cred it d em a n d s. has a ttem pted to im p ro v e th e m a rk etab ility o f g o v e rn m e n t In oth er E u r o p e a n cou n tries, cen tra l b a n k o p e n m ark et b o n d s b y b e in g a rea d y b u y er o f su ch b o n d s in sm all o p e r a tio n s are n egligib le. T h u s , in B elg iu m , officia l o p e r a am ou n ts, an d a lso b y fa cilita tin g tran sa ction s in th e m ark et tion s in the lo n g -te rm m a rk et are c o n d u c te d b y the F o n d s w h en la rg e b u y in g o r sellin g o rd ers w ere in v o lv e d . des R en tes, a g ov ern m en t fu n d estab lish ed in 1 9 4 5 to su p In In d ia , h ea v y b o n d -s u p p o r t o p e ra tio n s b y th e cen tra l p o r t g ov ern m en t b o n d p r ic e s ; th e cen tra l b a n k itself d o e s b a n k w ere a b a n d o n e d as fa r b a c k as N o v e m b e r 19 51 w h en n o t op era te in the m a rk et. In v ie w o f th e la rg e fin an cin g the B a n k a n n ou n ced that, in stead o f m a in tain in g th e lo n g n eed s o f the g ov ern m en t, th e u n u tilized m a rg in o f the g o v term rate b y b u y in g a n y g o v e rn m e n t secu rities that w ere ern m en t’ s leg a l cred it ce ilin g at the cen tra l b a n k — w h ich o ffe re d to it, it w o u ld refra in , e x c e p t in sp ecia l circu m sta n ap p lies b o t h to d irect b o r r o w in g a n d to in d irect b o r r o w in g c es, fr o m b u y in g secu rities to m eet sea son al n eed s o f the th rou g h th e B a n k ’ s secu rities p u rch a ses— has b e e n so sm all ba n k s, w h ich w o u ld th e n ce fo r th h a v e to b e m et m a in ly as to g iv e little le e w a y fo r o p e n m a rk et p u rch a ses; an d th rou g h the “ d is co u n t w in d o w ” . T h is c h a n g e in the cen tra l o p e n m a rk et sales h av e b e e n th w arted b y the la rge b o r r o w b a n k ’ s o p e n m a rk et p o lic y w as in ten d ed to m a k e e ffe ctiv e in g o f th e g ov ern m en t an d its a g en cies in th e m ark et. the n e w ly in crea sed d is co u n t rate, a n d to assure that a sea T h e se fa c to r s, a c c o rd in g to the 1 9 5 5 annual re p o rt o f the son a l c o n tra ctio n w o u ld take p la c e w h en th e p e a k o f th e cen tra l b a n k , h a v e d e p r iv e d it o f an im p orta n t field o f sea son a l n eeds fo r fu n d s w as ov e r. T h e cen tra l b a n k ’ s se c u a ction . C o n sid e ra tio n is n o w b e in g g iv en to establish in g a rities tran sa ction s, w h ich take p la c e either d ir e c tly w ith the m o r e fle x ib le m o n e y m a rk et w ith in w h ich the B a n k c o u ld ba n ks o r th rou g h b r o k e rs , h a v e also b e e n in ten d ed to h e lp op era te m o r e effectiv ely . the b a n k s secu re a better d istrib u tion o f th eir secu rities In S w itzerlan d, w h ere the e c o n o m y has b e e n v ery liq u id p o r tfo lio s , as w ell as at tim es to p rep a re the m a rk et f o r n ew d u rin g the p o s tw a r years, it is the sm allness o f the central g o v e rn m e n t lo a n issues. b a n k ’ s secu rities p o r tfo lio that has p rev en ted the B a n k o p e ra tio n s , w h ile rela tiv ely sm all, h av e b e e n m a in ly c o n In C e y lo n , the cen tra l b a n k ’ s fr o m en ga gin g in m a jo r o p e n m a rk et sales. F o r this rea c e rn e d w ith h elp in g to regu late the b a n k in g sy stem ’ s liq u id son , the B a n k at tim es has m a d e lim ited sales o f g o ld ity rather than w ith a rig id an d o ften in fla tion a ry su p p ort c o in s to the p u b lic to a b s o r b e x cess liq u id ity o f the b a n k in g o f g ov ern m en t b o n d p r ic e s, as in m a n y oth er fin a n cia lly system ; h o w e v e r, relia n ce has b e e n p rim a rily p la c e d o n le s s -d e v e lo p e d cou n tries. O n o c c a s io n , h o w e v e r, th e B a n k g en tlem en ’ s agreem en ts fo r sp ecia l reserve requ irem en ts a id ed in stab ilizin g th e m a rk et d u rin g the issue o f g o v e r n and fo r oth er m easu res, b e tw e e n the au th orities and the m en t loa n s. In F e b ru a ry 1 9 5 6 , w h e n the B a n k ’ s p o r tfo lio ban ks an d oth er fin an cial institutions. In a d d ition , the a c w as alm ost exh a u sted bu t the e c o n o m y u n u su ally liq u id , cu m u la tion o f large cash b a la n ces b y the T rea su ry an d the the B a n k issu ed its o w n o n e an d tw o -y e a r secu rities— issu an ce b y the T rea su ry o f sp ecia l secu rities h ave h elp ed the first in stan ce o f an issu e o f cen tra l b a n k b o n d s in m a n y a b sorb ex cess liqu id ity. a year. In P akistan, the cen tra l b a n k in fo rm s its b r o k e r FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 35 that it is p r e p a r e d to b u y o r sell secu rities, an d lea ves In spite o f th e sev ere lim ita tion s o n o p e n m a rk et o p e r a it to the m a rk et to m a k e u se o f the fa cilities thus o ffe re d . tion s, m u c h h as b e e n a c h ie v e d in the b ro a d e n in g o f th e In this w a y , the B a n k has b e e n a b le to relie v e p e r io d s o f ca p ita l m ark ets in a n u m b e r o f these cou n tries, n o ta b ly stringency w hile g u a rd in g against w h olesa le u n lo a d in g o f C u b a , C o s ta R ic a , M e x ic o , a n d the P h ilip p in es. B u t ev en secu rities, a n d at th e sam e tim e has p r o v id e d a m o r e o r w h ere cen tra l b a n k o p e r a tio n s h a v e h e lp e d to w id e n th e less con sisten t d e m a n d f o r secu rities. ow n ersh ip o f g ov e rn m e n t secu rities, o ffic ia l com m itm en ts In Japan , after a la p se o f m a n y years, th e cen tra l b a n k reinstituted o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s in N o v e m b e r 1 9 5 5 in a setting o f grea tly in cre a s e d b a n k liq u id ity . S o fa r, to su p p ort g o v e rn m e n t b o n d s h a v e o fte n ten d ed to im p e d e efforts to p rev en t t o o ra p id an ex p a n sio n in the m o n e y su pply. h o w e v e r, th e B a n k ’ s sales h a v e b e e n sm all, an d the B a n k has a greed to su sp en d th em L esson s several da ys p r io r to the and P rospects m atu rity dates o f th e p a rticu la r secu rities. M o r e o v e r , th e T h e e n d e a v o r o f m a n y fo r e ig n cou n tries to d e v e lo p B a n k stands rea d y , f o r a sh ort p e r io d after th e sales, to fa cilities fo r cen tra l b a n k p u rch a se an d sale o f secu rities rep u rch a se at th e sam e p r ic e the secu rities that it has sold . in th e m a rk et reflects th e n e e d b e in g fe lt th ere to im p r o v e It sim ilarly stands rea d y to rep u rch a se as w e ll th e secu rities th e flex ib ility a n d stren gth en the im p a c t o f m o n e ta ry an d so ld b y th e T rea su ry u n d er th e re ce n t a rran gem en t o f p la c c re d it c o n tro ls . It is a lso cle a r that th ere are m a n y in stitu in g n ew secu rities d irectly w ith the c o m m e r c ia l ba n k s rather tion a l ob s ta cle s to b e o v e r c o m e in m o s t cou n tries. D e sp ite than w ith th e cen tra l ba n k . the a d v a n ce a c h ie v e d in a n u m b e r o f cou n tries, the o p e n In oth er cou n tries o f A s ia as w e ll as in L a tin A m e r ic a , m a rk et in stru m en t is still o n ly ra rely th e m a jo r cre d it- the s c o p e o f cen tra l b a n k o p e n m a rk et o p e ra tio n s has re c o n t r o l to o l. W h e re it is u sed, w ith the n o ta b le e x ce p tio n s m a in ed ev en m o r e lim ited b e c a u se o f th e ex trem e n a r ro w o f the U n ited K in g d o m , C a n a d a , an d th e U n ited States, it ness th ese g en era lly serves to su p p lem en t oth er in stru m en ts su ch as cou n tries, m o r e o v e r , su ch o p e ra tio n s g en era lly co n s ist o f d is co u n t rate an d reserve req u irem en t ch a n g es. N ev erth e p u rch ases o n ly , an d o n the rare o c c a s io n s w h en sales are less, in the last fe w years sale o f g o v e rn m e n t secu rities or virtu a l a b se n ce of ca p ita l m ark ets. In m a d e, ca re is u su ally taken n o t to d epress secu rities p rices. by M o r e o v e r , the p u rch a ses h a v e o fte n b e e n in ten d ed to su p liq u id ity has b e c o m e an im p o rta n t in stru m en t o f m on eta ry v a riou s cen tra l b a n k s in F u rth erm ore, o r d e r to in so fa r m op as up cen tra l e x cess p ly n e e d e d fu n d s d ire ctly o r in d ire ctly to the g ov ern m en t m a n a gem en t. o r the v a riou s g o v e rn m e n t a g en cies. T h e o p e ra tio n s o f the a b ro a d are still su p p ortin g g o v e r n m e n t b o n d p r ic e s, su ch ba n k s cen tra l o p e ra tio n s are n o w b e in g e ffe cte d m o r e fle x ib ly , an d at b a n k law s, as in th e P h ilip p in es, the D o m in ic a n R e p u b lic , in terest rates that reflect m o r e rea listica lly the b a sic su p p ly secu rities E cu ador, sta b iliza tion an d fu n d s H o n d u ra s , esta b lish ed h a v e lik ew ise u n d er rem a in ed v ery sm all. In th e fa c e o f n a rro w c a p ita l m a rk ets, th e au th ori ties in th ese fin an cially le s s -d e v e lo p e d cou n trie s n o t o n ly and dem and c o n d itio n s p re v a ilin g on th e m o n e y an d ca p ita l m arkets. T h e g ro w in g e x p e rie n c e o f fo r e ig n cen tra l ba n k s is h av e resorted to cen tra l b a n k re p u rch a se guarantees fo r d em on stra tin g that m a n y o f th e o b s ta cle s to p r a c tic a b le n ew ly and use o f o p e n m a rk et o p e r a tio n s ca n b e o v e r c o m e . T h e la ck M e x ic o , b u t o fte n h a v e a lso e m p lo y e d m ea su res o f a m o r e o f a su itable cen tra l b a n k secu rities p o r t fo lio is, as a rule, issu ed g o v e rn m e n t secu rities, as in Cuba o r less c o e r c iv e n atu re in o r d e r to r e d u c e b a n k in g liq u id ity, the easiest to r e m e d y ; w h en a cen tra l b a n k has n o b o o k h elp b r o a d e n the m a rk ets, a n d a id in th e fin a n cin g o f g o v cla im s o n th e g o v e rn m e n t that ca n b e tra n sfo rm e d in to ernm ent deficits. T h u s , in M e x ic o th e c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s’ m a rk etab le secu rities, it m a y ob ta in the p o w e r to issue its reserve requ irem en ts, w h ich h a v e lo n g in clu d e d g o v e r n o w n secu rities in o r d e r to secu re the n e e d e d am m u n ition . m ent securities, w ere recen tly tigh ten ed so as to requ ire A m u c h m o r e seriou s o b s ta c le is t o b e fo u n d in the la ck the ban k s to p u rch a se a d d ition a l g o v e rn m e n t securities o f a p p rop ria te fisca l an d d e b t m a n a gem en t p o lic ie s ; still, fr o m the cen tra l b a n k . In H o n d u ra s , a recen t in crease in there is g ro w in g rea liz a tion in m a n y cou n tries o f the n eed the ba n k s’ reserve requ irem en ts p r o v id e d that it m igh t b e f o r a better b a la n c e d b u d g e t an d f o r the c o v e r in g o f deficits fu lfilled b y th rou g h n o n in fla tion a ry m ea n s, a n d a n u m b e r o f cou n tries p u rch a sin g g ov e rn m e n t secu rities fr o m cen tra l b a n k ’ s secu rities stab ilization fu n d . the In the P h ilip are alrea d y ad ju stin g th eir p o lic ie s a c c o rd in g ly . The pin es, the c o m m e r c ia l ba n k s ca n in p a rt m eet their reserve a b sen ce o f su fficien tly b r o a d m o n e y a n d ca p ita l m arkets is requ irem ents b y h o ld in g g ov e rn m e n t secu rities, and in a n oth er fu n d a m en ta l p r o b le m ; certa in cen tra l ba n k s, h o w C u b a the c o m m e r cia l ba n k s h a v e rece n tly b e e n requ ired ev er, h av e alrea d y c o n trib u te d sign ifican tly to the d e v e lo p to invest in g ov ern m en t secu rities a certain p ercen ta g e o f m en t o f su ch m a rk ets, b o th b y h elp in g to crea te a p r o p e r their dep osits in o rd e r to b e elig ib le to a c c e p t officia l d e in stitu tional fr a m e w o r k posits. In P aragu ay, G u a tem a la , and E c u a d o r , the au th ori g row th o f th ese m arkets. ties have co m p a n ie s in tr o d u ce d sp ecia l law s req u irin g an d b y n o u rish in g the further in su ran ce B u t m u ch rem ains to b e d o n e . In gen eral, it is essential an d oth er fin an cial in stitu tions to in vest in that central b a n k op era tion s to b r o a d e n m o n e y and c a p i g ov ern m en t an d oth er o fficia lly fa v o r e d securities. tal m arkets d o n o t b e c o m e m erely a m ea n s fo r fa cilita t MONTHLY REVIEW, MARCH 1957 36 in g g o v e rn m e n t-d e ficit fin a n cin g ; g o v e r n m e n t-b o n d -s u p p o r t g row th an d d iv ersifica tion . op era tion s m a y h a v e in flation ary rep ercu ssion s ev en as v e lo p e d system s, fu rth er p rog ress hinges m a in ly o n th e m arkets b r o a d e n . o v erh a u lin g o f g o v e rn m e n t d e b t p o lic ie s an d tech n iq u es, In cou n tries w ith le s s -d e v e lo p e d finan In cou n tries w ith m o r e d e cial system s, the b ro a d e n in g o f fin an cial m ark ets, h ow e v e r, an d o n im p ro v e m e n ts in the fu n ctio n in g o f th e m o n e y is d ep en d en t n o t o n ly o n su itable m on eta ry , fiscal, and m a rk et; su ch r e fo r m d eb t-m a n a g em en t p o lic ie s , b u t also o n co n tin u e d e c o n o m ic sid ered in a n u m b er o f W estern E u r o p e a n co u n tries. m ea su res are alrea d y b e in g con EARNINGS AND EXPENSES OF SECOND DISTRICT MEMBER BANKS IN 1956 N e t cu rren t op era tin g earnings o f m e m b e r b a n k s in the S e c o n d F ed era l R e s e rv e D istrict in crea sed 1 0 0 m illio n d o l losses in 1 9 5 6 . L o ss e s o r c h a rg e -o ffs o n loa n s also h a v e in crea sed , e sp ecia lly du rin g the last tw o years. In a d d ition , lars, o r 1 8 .8 p e r cen t, in 1 9 5 6 to an all-tim e h igh o f 6 3 5 in fo u r o f the six years sin ce 1 9 5 0 the b a n k s su stained m illio n d olla rs. losses o n sales o f secu rities; in 1 9 5 6 , th ese losses o n secu ri E x p a n d e d lo a n v o lu m e an d h igh er rates o f interest o n loa n s w ere p rim a rily re sp o n sib le f o r th e im ties tota led o v e r 71 m illio n dolla rs. p ro v e m e n t in earn ings. in c o m e h a v e in crea sed m o r e ra p id ly than n et p rofits b e fo r e O p era tin g ex p en ses also r o se bu t F in a lly, ta xes o n net n o t so ra p id ly as in co m e . A ft e r d e d u ctio n o f in c o m e taxes, in c o m e taxes, o w in g in la rge p a rt to a d ecrea se in h old in g s losses an d ch a rg e -o ffs, an d ch a rg es against op era tin g earn o f ta x -e x e m p t in vestm ents. ings to au gm en t reserves f o r losses o n loa n s, h o w e v e r, net to restrain an y substantial rise in n et profits, th e ba n k s p rofits b e fo r e d iv id en d s o f 2 5 3 m illio n dolla rs w ere less h a v e sim u lta n eou sly au g m en ted th e size o f the reserve than 1 p e r cen t h igh er th an in 1 9 5 5 . T h e failu re o f net p rofits to reflect th e substantial rise in n et cu rren t o p era tin g “ cu s h io n ” that th ey are W h ile th ese fa c to r s te n d e d m a in tain in g against p oten tia l losses. earn ings w as th e result b o th o f losses o n the sale o f secu ri P r o p o rtio n a te ly , the in creases du rin g 1 9 5 6 in b o t h ea rn ties an d o f a g ro w in g v o lu m e o f c h a rg e -o ffs o n loa n s. T h e ings an d ex p en ses w ere greater fo r m e m b e r b a n k s in the lo a n ch a rg e -o ffs w ere p a rticu la rly im p orta n t at the central S e c o n d D istrict than fo r m e m b e r ba n k s elsew h ere in the reserve N e w Y o r k C ity ba n k s. co u n try . N et cu rren t op era tin g earn ings o f S e c o n d D istrict T o ta l cu rren t earn ings an d ex p en ses o f S e c o n d D istrict m e m b e r ba n k s ro se 1 8 .8 p e r cen t in 1 9 5 6 , c o m p a r e d w ith m em b er ba n k s h a v e risen con sta n tly since 1 9 5 0 , as sh ow n 1 5 .2 p e r cen t fo r all m e m b e r ba n k s. in C h art I, an d sin ce in c o m e has in crea sed m o r e than flects the fa c t that ba n k s h ere e x p a n d e d their loa n s m o r e T h e differen tial r e o u tg o , n et cu rren t earn ings h av e risen ea ch year to n ew than the ba n k s in oth er parts o f the co u n try . A ft e r losses pea ks. F o r several rea son s, h o w e v e r, net p rofits after taxes o n secu rity sales and oth er n on recu rrin g ch a rges, net p rofits h ave n o t k ep t p a c e w ith the rise in n et earn ings. N e t a d d i b e fo r e taxes fo r the S e c o n d D istrict ba n k s ro se 5 .6 p e r cen t, tion s to v a lu a tion reserves f o r lo a n losses h av e risen su b c o m p a r e d w ith 4 .2 p e r cen t fo r all m e m b e r banks. stantially in ea ch year o f this p e r io d e x ce p t 1 9 5 2 and 1 9 5 3 . A lm o s t 63 p e r cen t o f the o p era tin g earnings o f S e c o n d N ea rly 9 8 m illio n dollars w ere a d d e d to reserves fo r lo a n D istrict ban k s in 1 9 5 6 w as d eriv ed fr o m interest an d d is cou n ts o n loa n s, as sh ow n in C h art II. B o th the cen tra l reserve city ba n k s an d th e reserve city an d c o u n tr y b a n k g ro u p s d eriv ed a b o u t th e sam e p r o p o r t io n o f their earn ings fr o m loa n s. H o w e v e r , the reserve city an d co u n tr y b a n k s re ce iv e d a b ou t 2 3 p e r c e n t o f th eir earn ings fr o m in v est m en ts c o m p a re d w ith 18 p e r cen t fr o m the N e w Y o r k C ity b a n k s, an d 7 p e r c e n t fr o m serv ice ch a rg es o n d e p o s it a cco u n ts against a b o u t 2 ¥2 p e r cen t fo r the C ity b a n k s. T h e cen tra l reserve city b a n k s, o n the oth er h an d , d e r iv e d m o r e than 10 p e r c e n t o f their in c o m e fr o m th eir trust d epa rtm en ts, c o m p a r e d w ith a b o u t 2 V2 p e r cen t fo r b a n k s elsew h ere in the D istrict. B y fa r the largest item o f e x p en se in op e ra tin g a b a n k is salaries and w ages. T h e C ity b a n k s’ ex p en ses f o r salaries an d w ages in 1 9 5 6 a m o u n te d to 51 p e r cen t o f tota l ex p en ses, b u t at the oth er D istrict b a n k s this item r e p re sen ted o n ly 4 3 p e r cen t o f the total, reflectin g in la rg e pa rt the lo w e r average w ag es p reva ilin g in n o n m e tro p o lita n areas. T h e s e c o n d m a jo r item o f ex p en se, interest o n tim e d ep osits, is m o r e th an tw ice as la rge an ex p en se f o r sm all b a n k s as it is fo r the la rg e C ity ba n k s, sin ce the 37 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Chart li PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF SEC O N D DISTRICT M EM BER BA NK E A R N IN G S A N D EXPENSES IN 1956 EXPENSES E A R N IN G S N e w York central I Reserve city reserve city banks and country banks Total earnings 100.0 Interest and discount on b an s Interest and dividends on United States Government securities Trust department Interest and dividends on other securities Service charges on deposits Other current earnings v o lu m e o f tim e d ep osits at reserve city and cou n tr y ba n k s c e n t ) , b u t in d o lla r term s it a d d e d o n ly 1 5 8 m illio n to represents a m u ch la rger p r o p o r t io n o f total d ep osits, 38 the in crea se in tota l loa n s. T h e o n ly sign ifican t lo a n ca te per cen t, c o m p a r e d w ith o n ly a b o u t 12 p e r cen t at C ity g o r y to d e clin e at th e C ity b a n k s w as “ lo a n s to b ro k e rs an d d ea lers in secu rities” w h ich c o n tra cte d 5 0 5 m illion bank s. d olla rs, o r 2 0 .3 p e r cen t, p r o b a b ly reflectin g in p a rt sm aller O p e r a t in g I n c o m e In 1 9 5 6 , b a n k earn ings reflected h igh er average interest ch a rg es o n loa n s, h igh er y ield s o n G o v e r n m e n t secu rities, an d, as sh ow n in C h art I II, the con tin u in g shift fr o m rela tively lo w e r y ield in g in vestm ents to h igh er y ield in g loa n s. A s a result, tota l cu rren t op e ra tin g earn ings o f m e m b e r ba n k s in the S e c o n d D istrict attained a p e a k o f 1 ,5 2 3 m il lio n d olla rs, 2 0 6 m illio n dolla rs o r 1 5 .7 p e r cen t a b o v e 1955. T h e c o n tin u a tio n o f cred it restraint th rou g h 1 9 5 6 , h o w e v e r, h a d a greater im p a ct o n the cen tra l reserve N e w Y o r k C ity ba n k s th an it h a d o n oth er ba n k s in the S e c o n d average in ven tories h e ld b y b r o k e rs an d dea lers du rin g 1 9 5 6 an d in p a rt a shift o f secu rity fin an cin g to o u t-o f-to w n ba n k s an d n o n b a n k len d ers. In the aggregate, th e ra tio o f loa n s to total lo a n s an d in vestm ents at th e C ity ba n k s rose fr o m 5 8 .3 p e r c e n t in 1 9 5 5 to 6 6 .3 p e r cen t in 1 9 5 6 . A t reserve city a n d c o u n tr y ba n k s, c o m m e r c ia l loa n s also rose, b u t an e x p a n sio n in real estate an d c o n s u m e r lo a n s co n trib u te d sign ifican tly to the tota l in crease. O u tsid e N e w Y o r k C ity , the ra tio o f loa n s to total earn in g assets rose fr o m 4 9 .7 p e r cen t in 1 9 5 5 to 5 4 .3 p e r cen t in 1 9 5 6 . D istrict. A lth o u g h b o th the C ity ba n k s an d the reserve city Chart III an d c o u n try ba n k s e x p a n d e d their lo a n p o r tfo lio s , the C ity L O A N S A N D U N IT ED STATES G O V E R N M E N T SECURITIES H O L D IN G S OF S E C O N D DISTRICT M E M B E R BA N K S, 1954-56 ban k s h ad to co n tra ct their in vestm ents b y n early the sam e a m ou n t as their lo a n ex p a n sion . O n the oth er h an d, the reserve city and co u n tr y ba n k s in the aggregate g en erally h eld som e ex cess reserves d u rin g the c o u r se o f the year, an d the in crease in their lo a n s req u ired less secu rity liq u i d a tion . T h e average a m ou n t o f loa n s o n the b o o k s o f the C ity ba n k s an d o f the reserve city an d c o u n try ba n k s d u r ing the y ear r o se 1.9 b illio n d olla rs ( 1 4 .3 p e r c e n t ) an d 0 .7 b illion dollars ( 1 3 .7 p e r c e n t ) , resp ectiv ely , w hereas investm ents d e clin e d 1.8 b illio n dolla rs ( 1 8 .9 p e r c e n t ) in the C ity banks and o n ly 0 .3 b illio n dolla rs ( 5 . 4 p e r c e n t ) in the ba n k s ou tsid e the C ity . C on seq u en tly , total loa n s an d investm ents in crea sed o n ly 0 .4 p e r cen t in the C ity ban ks bu t 4.1 p e r cen t ou tsid e the C ity . M o s t o f the lo a n ex p a n sion at the C ity ba n k s o c c u r r e d in c o m m e r cia l an d industrial loa n s w h ich av era g ed 2 ,1 6 2 m illion dollars, o r 2 6 .1 p e r cen t m o r e than in 1 9 5 5 . The rise in c o n s u m e r loa n s also w as relatively large ( 1 1 . 3 pe r Billions of dollars Billions of dollars MONTHLY REVIEW, MARCH 1957 38 N e w Y o r k C ity ba n k s in crea sed their rate o n “ p r im e ” N e w Y o r k C ity ba n k s salary an d w a g e p a ym en ts rose 8 .6 loa n s to bu siness b o r r o w e r s fr o m 3 Vi p e r cen t, e ffectiv e at p e r cent, w h ereas in the reserve city an d c o u n tr y b a n k s the b eg in n in g o f the yea r, to 3 % p e r cen t in A p r il, an d to 4 th ey w ere u p 1 0 .2 p e r cen t; in b o th g rou p s the in creases p er cen t in A u g u s t. reflected the c o m b in a tio n o f h igh er w a g e rates and an in T h e se ch a n g es p a ra lleled the rise in the d iscou n t rate at the F ed era l R e s e rv e B a n k o f N e w Y o r k crea se in the n u m b er o f p e o p le e m p lo y e d . fr o m 2 Vi p e r cen t to 2 % p e r cen t o n A p r il 13 and to 3 entire p o s tw a r p e r io d , 1 9 4 5 to date, salary an d w a g e p a y p e r cen t o n A u g u s t 2 4 . A v e r a g e rates o n sh ort-term b u si m ents at the C ity ba n k s h a v e risen 135 p e r cen t an d at ness loa n s at the N e w Y o r k C ity banks, as re p o rte d in the th ose ou tsid e the C ity 2 2 8 p e r cen t. q u a rterly interest rate surveys c o n d u c te d b y the R e s e rv e System , r o se som ew h a t less, fr o m D u rin g the R e fle ctin g an in crea se in rates p a id tog eth er w ith an 3 .7 5 p e r cen t at the ex p a n sio n in the average v o lu m e o f tim e d ep osits in 1 9 5 6 , beg in n in g o f 1 9 5 6 to 4 .2 2 p e r cen t at the en d o f the year. interest p a ym en ts o n tim e d ep osits— the se c o n d largest T h e ratio o f total in c o m e fr o m lo a n s to the average v o lu m e single item o f ex p en ses at D istrict ba n k s— ro se 31 m illio n o f lo a n s ou tstan din g du rin g the y ea r at the C ity ba n k s in d ollars, o r 2 8 .7 p e r cen t. T h e av erag e e ffectiv e rate p a id 1 9 5 6 eq u a led 4 .0 8 p e r cen t, c o m p a r e d w ith 3 .5 6 p er cen t o n tim e d ep osits in the C ity ba n k s r o se fr o m 1 .2 3 p e r cen t in 1 9 5 5 . in 1 9 5 5 to 1 .7 4 p er cen t in 1 9 5 6 an d in the reserve city are In D istrict ba n k s ou tsid e the C ity, w h ere rates g en erally som ew h a t h igh er an d less resp on siv e to an d c o u n try ba n k s fr o m 1 .4 6 p e r cen t to 1 .7 2 p e r cen t. m o n e y m a rk et d ev elop m en ts, th e e ffectiv e rate o n total A s a result o f the h igh er rates o n a d va n ces fr o m loa n s w as 5 .3 5 p e r cen t in 1 9 5 6 an d 5 .1 4 p e r cen t in 1 9 5 5 . F e d e ra l R e s e rv e B a n k an d o n “ F ed era l fu n d s ” p rev a ilin g the A lth o u g h S e c o n d D istrict ba n k s d e cre a se d th eir secu ri du rin g 1 9 5 6 , interest p a id o n b o r r o w e d m o n e y d o u b le d ties h old in gs, interest an d d iv id en d s earn ed o n securities in the C ity ba n k s and sh o w e d o n ly a slightly sm aller rise d id n ot d e clin e p r o p o rtio n a te ly b e ca u se the ba n k s so ld rela in the D istrict ou tsid e the C ity . tively m o r e o f their sh ort-term , lo w e r y ield in g securities co n tin u e d to rep resen t o n e o f the sm aller ex p en ses in cu rred T h is item , n everth eless, a n d also r e p la c e d m atu ring o b lig a tio n s at h igh er rates. du rin g the year, a m ou n tin g to 2 .5 p e r cen t o f total ex p en ses A v e r a g e tota l in vestm ents co n tra cte d 2 ,1 2 7 m illion d olla rs in the C ity ba n k s an d ( 1 4 . 1 p e r c e n t ) fr o m the p r e v io u s y ear to 1 2 ,9 1 1 m illion the C ity . 6/10 o i l p e r cen t in the b a n k s ou tsid e d o lla rs, w hile interest an d d iv id en d s earn ed o n secu rities R e c u rr in g d e p r e cia tio n o n b a n k in g prem ises, fu rn itu re fe ll o n ly 2 5 m illio n dolla rs, o r 7 .8 p e r cen t. T h e N e w Y o r k an d fixtu res also r o se sh arp ly in 1 9 5 6 , esp e cia lly at the C ity b a n k s’ secu rities p o r tfo lio s d e clin e d 1 8 .9 p e r cen t an d N e w Y o r k C ity ba n k s w h ere the in crease a m ou n ted to 3 7 .0 ea rn in gs fe ll 1 3 .2 p e r cen t. A lth o u g h oth er ba n k s in the p e r cen t. T h e m a rk ed rise in d e p r e cia tio n ch a rg es in 1 9 5 6 D istrict r e d u c e d their secu rities p o r tfo lio s 5 .4 p e r cen t, w as d u e in p a rt to fu rth er m o d e rn iz a tio n o f qu arters an d their earn ings o n secu rities r o se 2 .0 p er cen t b eca u se the in pa rt to a ch a n g e in a c c o u n tin g p r o ce d u r e s at so m e in crea se in interest ea rn ed m o r e than offset the d eclin e in ba n k s. the v o lu m e o f secu rities h eld . bu sinesses, b a n k s h av e o fte n fo llo w e d the con se rv a tiv e C o n tr a r y to th e p r a c tic e c o m m o n a m o n g oth er E arn in gs fr o m trust d ep a rtm en t op e ra tio n s o f C ity ba n k s a cco u n tin g p r o c e d u r e o f ch a rg in g to “ oth er cu rren t o p e r a t in crea sed 1 9 .2 p e r cen t to 1 0 5 m illio n dollars, and at oth er in g ex p e n s e s” the fu ll c o s t o f m o d e rn iz a tio n o f p rem ises ba n k s trust earn ings ro se 4 .8 p e r c e n t to 13 m illio n dolla rs. and the c o s t o f n ew e q u ip m en t p u rch a se d ev en th ou gh , fo r H ig h er trust dep a rtm en t earn ings reflected a co n tin u e d tax p u rp o s e s, th ey set u p a d e p re cia tio n sch ed u le and g ro w th o f trust bu siness and h igh er secu rity yield s an d d iv i c h a rg ed o ff the e x p en se o v e r a n u m b er o f years. d e n d s. I n c o m e fr o m serv ice ch a rg es o n d e p o s it a cco u n ts this p r o c e d u r e these co sts w ere reflected in “ oth er cu rren t rose sh arply at b o th la rge an d sm all ba n k s, b y 2 0 .6 p er o p era tin g ex p e n s e s” rather than “ recu rrin g d e p r e cia tio n ” c e n t at C ity b a n k s an d 1 5 .7 p e r cen t at oth er banks. in the “ R e p o r t o f E arn in gs an d D iv id e n d s ” . U nder H ow ever, b e ca u se the co sts o f m o d e rn iz a tio n an d n ew eq u ip m en t O p e r a t in g ( f o r e x a m p le, e le c tr o n ic e q u ip m e n t) h a v e b e c o m e su bstan E xpen ses tial, in 1 9 5 6 so m e ba n k s a d o p te d the p r o c e d u r e o f m a k in g E x p e n se s o f b o th classes o f b a n k s in the D istrict c o n tin u ed to c lim b steadily in 1 9 5 6 . 1950 S in ce the beg in n in g o f recu rrin g d e p re cia tio n ch a rg es rather than w ritin g o ff the fu ll c o st im m ed ia tely . S e c o n d D istrict b a n k s’ tota l ex p en ses h av e risen 8 2 .2 p e r cen t, o r an average o f 1 0 .5 p e r cen t p e r y ear. N o n r e c u r r in g I t e m s In 1 9 5 6 , ex p en ses in crea sed 1 3 .5 p e r cen t a b o v e the 1 9 5 5 S e c o n d D istrict m e m b e r ba n k s h ad n et losses o n secu ri levels, an d th ere w as little d ifferen ce b etw een the in crea sed ties am ou n tin g to 71 m illio n dolla rs in 1 9 5 6 , o f w h ich 53 c o s ts o f op era tin g cen tra l reserve o r reserve city an d c o u n m illio n dolla rs rep resen ted the lo s s su stained b y the cen tra l try ba n k s. E x p e n se s w ere u p 1 3 .7 p e r cen t at N e w Y o r k reserve N e w Y o r k C ity ba n k s. C ity ba n k s in 1 9 5 6 an d 1 3 .3 p e r cen t elsew h ere. 3 2 .6 p e r cen t at C ity b a n k s an d 2 6 .0 p e r cen t at oth er L o s s e s o n secu rities ro se W a g e s an d salaries, w h ich con stitu te n early h a lf o f total D istrict b a n k s. B e ca u se o f the con tin u in g pressu re o n re ex p e n s e s f o r S e c o n d D istrict m e m b e r ba n k s, d id n o t in serves, p a rt o f the losses resu lted fr o m the sale o f secu ri c rea se so fast in 1 9 5 6 as oth er item s o f ex p en se. ties to o b ta in fu n d s to ex p a n d loa n s, bu t so m e also resu lted In the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 39 fr o m “ sw itch in g o p e r a tio n s ” u n d erta k en to establish losses p a re d w ith 2 0 m illion d olla rs in 1 9 5 5 . fo r ta x p u rp o s e s. S in ce ba n k s are p erm itted to d e d u ct a d d ition s to reserves fo r lo a n losses, o n ly m in o r ch a n ges losses fr o m secu rity sales fr o m n et p rofits b e fo r e in c o m e w ere m a d e in reserves fo r secu rity losses. C ity ba n k s a d d ed In con tra st to the taxes, it is o fte n ad va n ta g eou s, w h en secu rity p rice s h av e a n et o f 2 .2 m illio n d olla rs to th eir reserves f o r secu rity fallen, f o r a b a n k to sell so m e o f its in vestm ents an d esta b losses, b u t the oth er D istrict b a n k s d e cre a se d th eir reserves lish a loss w h ich w ill b e d e d u cte d fr o m n et p rofits an d thus a n et o f 1 m illio n d olla rs. r e d u ce the in c o m e ta x lia bility . T h e b a n k c a n sim u l T a x e s , D iv id e n d s , ta n eou sly b u y oth er secu rities to m ain tain its in vestm en t and R E a r n in g s e t a in e d P rofits b e fo r e in c o m e ta xes o f S e c o n d D istrict m em b er p o r tfo lio . ba n k s r o se to 4 4 7 m illio n d olla rs, an a m ou n t 5 .6 p e r cen t T h e n et a m ou n t o f loa n s ch a rg e d o f f b y S e c o n d D istrict ba n k s in crea sed sh arply in 1 9 5 6 to 3 4 .7 m illio n d olla rs, o r 2 4 m illio n a b o v e 1 9 5 5 . In th e C ity b a n k s p rofits b e fo r e an a m ou n t m o r e th an tw o an d o n e h a lf tim es th e c h a rg e - taxes in crea sed 8 .4 p e r cen t, b u t in th e rem ain in g D istrict o ffs in cu rred in 1 9 5 5 . In N e w Y o r k C ity , larger losses o n ba n k s th ey d e c lin e d 3.1 p e r cen t. C o r re s p o n d in g ly , in c o m e loa n s w ere su stained b y m a n y o f the ba n k s, and their total taxes, p a id o r a ccru e d , in crea sed sh arply in th e C ity ba n k s lo a n ch a rg e -o ffs o f 3 0 .0 m illion d olla rs c o m p a r e w ith o n ly and d e clin e d m o d e ra te ly elsew h ere in th e D istrict. 1 0 .5 m illio n a y ea r a g o . m a gn itu d e o f th ese ch a n g es in ta xes w as accen tu a ted b y a The re d u c tio n in h o ld in g s o f ta x -e x e m p t m u n icip a l o b lig a tio n s In a p re ca u tio n a ry m o v e , stim u lated in p a rt b y the rise in lo a n ch a rg e -o ffs an d in p a rt b y th e ta x d e d u ctib le fe a o n the pa rt o f th e N e w Y o r k C ity b a n k s an d an in crease tures o f a d d ition s to b a d d e b t reserves fo r lo a n losses, th e in the h old in g s o f th ese secu rities b y oth er D istrict ba n k s. C ity ba n k s a d d e d 6 5 m illio n d olla rs to th eir v a lu a tion r e C a sh d iv id e n d p a ym en ts b y b o th g ro u p s o f ba n k s r ose serves f o r lo a n losses, n ea rly tw ice th e a m ou n t a d d e d d u r du rin g 1 9 5 6 d esp ite the c o m p a ra tiv e stability o f net profits R e s e rv e city a n d co u n tr y ba n k s, after ta xes. In fa c t, d iv id e n d p a y m en ts in crea sed 11 . 0 p er alth ou gh their lo a n ch a rg e -o ffs w ere c o m p a ra tiv e ly sm all, cen t at the reserve city an d c o u n tr y b a n k s an d 7 .5 p er a d d ed 33 m illio n d olla rs to their v a lu a tion reserves, c o m cen t in N e w Y o r k C ity . R e la tiv e to tota l ca p ita l fu n d s at in g the p r e v io u s y ea r. Earnings and Expenses of Second District Member Banks, Selected Years (In m illions of dollars) Reserve city and country banks New York central reserve city banks Item 1945 1950 1955 1956 1945 1950 1955 1956 Number of banks......................................................................................................... 37 23 18 18 777 728 608 569 Earnings: On United States Government securities...................................................... On other securities.................................................................................................. On loans (including service charges and fees on loans).......................... Service charges on deposit accounts............................................................... Trust department earnings................................................................................. Other current earnings.......................................................................................... 2 22.1 2 4 .2 105.6 7 .5 4 0 .7 3 2 .1 144.6 3 1 .3 215.1 16.3 5 7 .5 4 7 .4 156.2 5 0 .9 48 3 .9 2 0 .4 8 8 .0 6 7 .2 132.9 4 6 .9 6 3 3 .3 2 4 .6 104.9 7 1 .5 8 1 .5 10 .3 4 5 .2 9 .0 5 .3 1 2.9 7 2 .9 1 6 .0 142.2 1 9.6 8 .5 1 6 .3 8 7 .5 2 6 .2 2 7 0 .0 3 1 .9 1 2 .4 2 2 .2 8 7 .1 2 8 .9 3 1 9 .7 3 6 .9 13 .0 2 3 .5 Total current operating earnings................................................... 4 3 2 .2 51 2 .2 8 6 6 .6 1 ,0 1 4 .1 164.2 2 7 5 .5 4 5 0 .2 5 09.1 Expenses: Salaries and wages— officers and employees................................................. Interest on time deposits (including savings deposits)............................ Interest and discount on borrowed m oney................................................... Taxes other than on net income....................................................................... Recurring depreciation on banking house, furniture, and fixtures. . . Other current operating expenses..................................................................... 1 16.8 5 .6 1 .0 1 0 .2 4 .2 7 8 .6 169.7 9 .7 1 .9 11 .8 3 .5 1 01.3 25 2 .7 4 2 .5 6 .6 14 .0 7 .3 148.5 2 7 4 .5 5 9 .1 1 3 .2 1 4 .2 1 0 .0 1 65.4 4 6 .4 2 3 .8 0 .2 6 .0 3 .7 3 2 .3 8 7 .4 3 1 .7 0 .3 8 .3 5 .6 5 6 .3 137.9 6 6 .4 1 .2 11.1 9 .6 8 4 .6 152.0 8 1 .1 2 .2 1 2 .0 1 1 .3 9 3 .4 3 5 2 .0 Total current expenses........................................................................ 2 1 6 .4 2 97.9 4 7 1 .6 5 3 6 .4 1 12.4 189.6 3 1 0 .8 Net current operating earnings before income taxes.................................... 2 1 5 .8 2 1 4 .3 3 9 5 .0 4 7 7 .7 5 1 .8 8 5 .9 139.4 N et recoveries ( -f-) or charge-offs ( —) on loans............................................. Security profits and recoveries ( + ) or charge-offs ( —) .............................. All other recoveries (-}-) or charge-offs ( —), net............................................ Net additions to ( —) or deductions from ( + ) valuation reserves for: Loan losses............................................................................................................. Security losses...................................................................................................... + 1 .3 * + 1 0 0 .2 f - 12 .4 Net profits before income taxes............................................................................. Taxes on net income................................................................................................... + - 2 .7 1 3.5 3 .8 - 1 0.5 3 9 .9 0 .3 - + 1 4.2 6 .9 - 3 6 .4 -r 11.1 - 3 0 4 .9 9 0 .7 21 4 .0 6 8 .6 31 9 .0 132.5 Net profits after income taxes........................................................ 2 1 4 .2 145.4 Cash dividends paid or declared............................................................................ Retained earnings........................................................................................................ 7 3 .0 141.2 8 9 .4 5 6 .0 — — + 3 0 .0 5 2 .9 1 8.4 6 5 .2 2 .2 + + - 157.1 1 .2 * 2 6 .lt 2 .7 + - 1 .2 6 .8 0 .6 - 2 .8 1 4 .6 3 .1 - 4 .7 1 8.4 1 .5 — + 12.1 0 .2 - 1 9 .8 5 .0 + 3 2 .6 1 .0 — 7 9 .0 2 3 .2 104.1 3 8 .8 3 4 5 .8 156.8 7 6 .4 1 6 .0 100.9 3 7 .4 1 86.5 189.0 6 0 .4 5 5 .8 6 5 .3 6 3 .5 123.9 6 2 .6 133.2 5 5 .8 1 3.9 4 6 .5 2 0 .2 3 5 .6 3 1 .0 3 4 .3 3 4 .4 2 9 .1 • Includes transfers to or from valuation reserves for loan losses, Includes transfers to or from valuation reserves for losses on securities. t Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1945-55; figures for 1956 are preliminary and are compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 40 MONTHLY REVIEW, MARCH 1957 h a n d at the beg in n in g o f 1 9 5 6 , cash d iv id e n d p a ym en ts sh o w e d a d eclin e, retain ed earn ings w ere sm aller at b o th d u rin g the y ear rep resen ted an average retu rn o f 4 .9 p er g rou p s o f ba n k s. cen t f o r the C ity ba n k s and o n ly 3 .7 p e r cen t fo r the reserve d e clin e d 6 .8 m illio n d olla rs, o r 1 0 .9 p e r cen t, to 5 5 .8 m il c ity an d c o u n try ba n k s. S in ce larger ca sh pa ym en ts w ere lio n dollars, w h ile in the oth er D istrict ba n k s th ey fe ll 5 .2 m a d e in 1 9 5 6 w h ile n et profits in crea sed o n ly m o d e ra te ly o r m illio n d olla rs, o r 1 5 .2 p e r cen t, to 2 9 .1 m illio n d olla rs. In N e w Y o r k C ity retain ed earn in gs SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States and Second Federal Reserve District Percentage change 1957 Item 1956 Unit January December November January Latest month Latest month from previous from year month earlier U N IT E D ST A T E S Production and trade Industrial production*............................................................................. Electric power output*............................................................................ Ton-miles of railway freight*................................................................ Manufacturers’ sales*............................................................................... Manufacturers’ inventories*.................................................................. Manufacturers’ new orders, to ta l*...................................................... Manufacturers’ new orders, durable goods*................................... Retail sales*................................................................................................. Residential construction contracts*................................................... Nonresidential construction contracts*............................................ Prices , wages, and employment Basic commodity pricesf........................................................................ Wholesale pricesf....................................................................................... Consumer pricesf....................................................................................... Personal income (annual rate)*............................................................ Composite index of wages and salaries*........................................... Nonagricultural employment*.............................................................. Manufacturing employment*................................................................ Average hours worked per week, manufacturingf....................... U nemploy ment............................................................................................ 1 9 47 -49 = 1 9 47 -49 = 1947-49 = billions of billions of billions of billions of billions of 1 9 47 -49 = 1 947 -49 = 100 100 100 $ $ $ $ $ 100 100 1 9 47 -49 = 1947 -49 = 1947-49 = billions of 1947 -49 = thousands thousands hours thousands 100 100 100 $ 100 9 1 .7 1 1 6 .9p 118.2 — — 5 2 , 112p 17,033p 4 0 .2 p 2 ,9 4 0 millions of $ millions of $ millions of $ millions of $ millions of $ 1947 -49 = 100 millions of $ 73,660p 89,010p 109,210p 30,916p 82,754 13 9 .4p 146p 226 p — — — — — — — — 147 220 lllp 2 6 . 7p 5 1 .4p 2 8 .8 p 1 4 .4p 1 6 .5p n.a. 311 146 218 104 2 8 .7 5 1 .4 2 9 .4 15.1 1 6 .4 197 272 9 2 .9 116.3 118.0 3 3 3 .5p 153p 52,071p 17,079p 4 1 .0 2 ,4 7 9 9 2 .7 115.9 117.8 3 3 3 .5 153 5 1,950 17,043 4 0 .6 2 ,4 6 3 143 211 112 2 7 .0 4 6 .3 2 8 .1 1 4 .7 1 5 .7 290 306 8 9 .4 111.9 114.6 316.7 145 51,080 16,944 4 0 .7r 2 ,8 8 5 Banking and finance Total investments of all commercial banks..................................... Total loans of all commercial banks................................................... Total demand deposits adjusted.......................................................... Currency outside the Treasury and Federal Reserve B anks*. . Bank debits (337 centers)*..................................................................... Velocity of demand deposits (337 centers)*................................... Consumer instalment credit outstandingf....................................... United States Government finance (other than borrowing) Cash income................................................................................................. Cash outgo.................................................................................................... National defense expenditures.............................................................. millions of $ millions of $ millions of $ 4 ,8 8 6 5,599 3 ,651 74,450p 91,240p 110,650p 3 0 ,9 7 0 76 ,5 7 6 138.1 31,5 5 2 74,360p 8 9 , 580p 108,210p 3 0,859 7 8 ,7 9 4 140.0 3 1,024 87,430 81,980 108,900 30,498 74,728r 134.4 28,886 5 ,8 9 9 7 ,4 4 8 3 ,4 4 8 6 ,3 3 2 6,5 7 7 3 ,4 5 0 4 ,7 2 9 5 ,3 2 3 3 ,3 9 4 + + - 1 3 7 7 # - 2 - 5 + 1 -1 4 +14 + 2 + 7 + 5 - 2 + 12 - 2 - 8 + 4 -2 2 - 3 + + + + + + + + + 1 1 # # # # - 2 + 19 + + + 1 2 1 # 8 1 2 3 4 3 5 6 2 1 1 2 -1 6 + 9 # + 1 +11 + 4 + 9 -1 7 -2 5 + 6 + + + + 5 -1 2 +14 # # # + 13 + 8 + 5 + 3 # + 3 -1 8 + 11 + 3 + 1 + 1 +10 +10 + 6 + 4 + 7 3 5 8 S E C O N D F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T Electric power output (New York and New Jersey)*..................... Residential construction contracts*........................................................ Nonresidential construction contracts*................................................. Consumer prices (New York C it y )t ....................................................... Nonagricultural employment*................................................................... Manufacturing employment*.................................................................... Bank debits (New York C ity )* ................................................................ Bank debits (Second District excluding New York C ity )* ......... Velocity of demand deposits (New York C ity )* ............................... Department store stocks*........................................................................... 1 9 47 -49 = 100 1947 -49 = 100 1947-49= 100 1947 -49 = 100 thousands thousands millions of $ millions of $ 1947 -49 = 100 1947 -49 = 100 1947 -49 = 100 163p — — 115.6 7 ,8 4 1 .8 p 2 , 6 9 6 . Ip 74,233 5,4 7 0 183.6 119 131 155 n.a. n.a. 1 15.5 7 ,8 6 0 .2 2 ,6 9 8 .3 65 ,6 7 4 5 ,0 7 0 1 74.8 116 13 lr 155 141p 30 5p 115.6 7 , 8 5 8 . lr 2 ,6 8 6 .2r 72,031 5 ,1 1 5 186.3 120 131 159 222 373 112.1 7 ,7 6 2 .8 2 ,6 8 2 .3 67,646 4 ,9 8 9 173.7 114 123r N ote: Latest data available as of noon, March 4, 1957. p Preliminary. * Adjusted for seasonal variation. r Revised. t Seasonal variations believed to be minor; no adjustment made, n.a. N ot available. # Change of less than 0.5 per cent. Source: A description of these series and their sources is available from the Domestic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, on request.