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Business Conditions S e c o n d M o n th ly F e d e r a l R e s e r v e D i s t r i c t R e p o r t b y th e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e A g e n t at th e F e d e ra l R e s e r v e B a n k o f N e w Y o r k July 81, 1920. T h e C r e d it S it u a t io n D u r in g th e p a st th irty d a y s th e sligh t d eclin es in th e v a rio u s p rice in d ices w h ich w ere n o te d in last m o n th ’ s re p o r t h a v e m a d e fu rth er p rogress, n o t o n ly in this c o u n tr y , b u t a b ro a d as w ell. T h e re has a lso b een a p e rc e p tib le lessen in g in th e v o lu m e o f cre d it, as reflected in th e to ta l earn in g assets o f th e F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k s, w h ich d eclin e d $ 10 4,770,000. fro m J u ly 9 t o 23, in crea sin g th eir reserve ra tio fro m 43.1 p er cen t, t o 44.4 p er cen t. I t is n o t im p ro b a b le th a t th e d im in ish ed excess o f ex p orts o v e r im p orts in June— a b o u t $78 m illion s co m p a re d w ith $200 t o $300 m illion s in recen t m on th s— m a y h a v e h a d its influen ce in th e recen t te n d e n c y to w a rd low er p rices in a n u m b e r o f im p o rta n t co m m o d itie s. T h ese p rice d eclin es, w h ich h a v e b een con fin ed t o certa in indu stries, are e v id e n ce th a t fo r th e tim e b e in g a t least th e s u p p ly o f g o o d s w ith in th ose indu stries equals or exceeds th e d em an d . W h e n this eq u ilib riu m is rea ch ed , su ch ru n a w a y p rices as u n d er-su p p ly m akes p ossib le u su a lly d is a p p ea r ra p id ly . I t is t o o early t o feel a t all sure th a t th ese p rice recession s m a rk th e b eg in n in g o f p erm a n e n t p rice d e fla tion , w h ich all th e w orld so ea rn estly desires. B u t th e fa c t th a t th e m o v e m e n t seem s to b e general th ro u g h o u t th e A llied cou n tries, in all o f w h ich d e term in ed efforts fo r d efla tion are b ein g m a d e, gives reason t o h o p e th a t a lth ou g h fu rth er increases m a y y e t o cc u r in indu stries w h ere th ere is still u n d e r su p p ly , n everth eless, gen erally spea k in g, th e p ea k o f p rices has b een rea ch ed . W h ile th e p rice recession s in certa in industries h a v e p ro d u ce d dullness o r in a ctiv ity , gen eral p r o d u c tio n , o n th e o th er h a n d , in spite o f strikes and traffic trou b les, has co n tin u e d a t a v e r y h igh level, if n o t a t th e h ig h est e v er k n o w n in this co u n tr y . T h is is reflected in th e en orm ou s v o lu m e o f freigh t traffic, w h ich fo r th e p a s t six m on th s appears to h a v e eq ua led , if n o t sligh tly exceed ed , th e reco rd m o v e m e n ts o f 1917 and 1918. U n d e r th e in flu en ce o f d earer m o n e y , a n d o f th e e x p e cta tio n o f lo w e r c o m m o d ity p rices w h ich are ju s t n o w b e g in n in g t o ta k e sh ape, th e sp ecu la tion fo r th e rise in la n d , cp m m o d itie s a n d secu rities, w h ich w as p ro ce e d in g so v io le n tly last a u tu m n a n d w h ich co n tin u e d w ith lessened in te n sity th ro u g h o u t th e w in ter, seem s, in this d istrict a t least, t o h a v e co m e t o a stan d still. T h is, h o w e v e r, d oes n o t m ea n th a t th ere is n o t still ca rried o n b a n k cre d it a large, th o u g h lessening, v o lu m e o f co m m o d itie s, real estate a n d securities exertin g a m ea su rab le influ en ce on p resen t cre d it pressure a n d th e co n tin u e d h igh co s t o f livin g. 2 REPORT ON BUSINESS CONDITIONS I n sp ite o f th e recen t m o v e m e n ts in p rices and cred it, p a s t exp erien ce in d ica tes th a t a d d itio n a l cr e d it w ill soon b e req u ired fo r th e h e a v y seasonal d em a n d o f a u tu m n . H a p p ily th ere is n o lon g er reason fo r th e fin a ncia l a p p reh en sion w ith w h ich b an k ers u sed t o a p p ro a ch ea ch a u tu m n in p re-w a r d a ys. F o r in stea d o f th e ston e w all o f rigid reserves a n d fixed cu rre n cy v o lu m e , th ere is n o w stan d in g b a c k o f all m em b er b a n k s a reservoir o f cr e d it and cu rren cy w h ose ela stic a n d p r o m p t resp on se t o th e req u irem en ts o f th e c o u n tr y h a v e b een th o ro u g h ly tested . T h e fa c t th a t fo r m a n y m on th s th e F ed era l R e s e r v e B a n k has b een exertin g pressure in ord er g ra d u a lly t o red u ce th e v o lu m e o f cr e d it w ill n o t p re v e n t it fro m ex ten d in g a d d ition a l cre d it w h en ever th e necessities o f in d u stry , co m m e rc e a n d a g ricu l tu re req u ire it. B u t th is p o te n tia l ela sticity sh ou ld n o t lead t o a n y im pression th a t cre d it is lik e ly in th e near fu tu re t o b e easier or a v a ila b le in a d d itio n a l v o lu m e fo r oth e r p u rp oses. T h e ta b le b e lo w show s th e ch a n ges in th e v o lu m e o f cred it in th e b an k s w h ich re p o rt each w eek to th e F ed era l R e se rv e B oard. F ed era l R eserve B ank E a r n in g s T h e earnings o f th e F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k o f N e w Y o r k fo r th e first six m on th s o f th e y ea r w ere co n sid era b ly larger th a n th ose fo r th e corresp on d in g p eriod last yea r. A fte r p a y in g th e legal sem i-ann u al d iv id e n d o f 3 p er cen t, setting aside reserves a gain st con tin gen cies, and a d d in g $ 6,200,000 t o its surplus, as p r o v id e d b y law , th ere rem ain ed $ 14 ,90 0 ,00 0, w h ich w ill b e p aid o v e r a t th e en d o f th e y ea r as a fra n ch ise ta x to th e U n ite d S tates T rea su ry . T h ese co n tin u ed large earnings h a v e ca lled fo rth a large n u m b er o f com m en ts to th e effe ct th a t th e F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k s w ere p rofiteerin g and th a t in v ie w o f th eir earnings th e y sh ou ld lo w e r th e ir rates. O n e critic q u ite seriou sly p ictu re d th e F e d deral R e se rv e S ystem as m a n ifestin g “ th a t sam e th irst fo r p o w e r th a t is ch a ra cteristic o f a ca rn iv o ro u s b east w hen it has ta ste d b lo o d fo r th e first tim e ” and a n n ou n ced th a t its m a n a g e m e n t h a d “ c o m e t o th e co n clu sio n th a t th ese in stitu tion s sh ou ld b e m o n e y -m a k in g con cern s a n d th a t th e y sh ou ld see h o w m u ch p ro fit th e y ca n sh ow in stea d o f b ein g u sed fo r th e p u rp o se o f ren d erin g a service t o th e co m m u n ity .” W h ile m o s t o f th e criticism s are n o t as fa n ta stic as th e fo re g o in g , th e y e v id e n ce ra th er gen erally a la ck o f u n d ersta n d in g o f th e p o licie s a n d w orkin gs o f th e F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k s. T h is is n o t u n n atu ral, since w e are still re la tiv e ly u n fa m iliar w ith th e op era tion s o f a b a n k o f issue a n d re d isco u n t, w h ich are w ell u n d e rsto o d in m o s t oth e r cou n tries. A fe w w ord s a b o u t th e o p era tion s o f this b a n k as th e y are reflected in its earnings m a y th e re fo re b e a p p rop ria te. T h e F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k s w ere crea ted t o p r o v id e elastic cre d it a n d cu rre n cy , w h ich w o u ld exp an d or co n tr a c t in a cco rd a n ce w ith th e req u irem en ts o f in d u stry, co m m e rce a n d a gricu ltu re. T h e y w ere also ex p e cte d m ea su ra b ly t o co n tr o l a n d reg u la te th e v o lu m e o f cre d it so th a t cre d it co n d itio n s m ig h t b e as stable as p ossible. T h e y ca m e in to existen ce a fter th e E u ro p e a n w ar h ad b egu n , and u p o n A m e r i ca ’ s en tra n ce in to th e w ar th e y w ere ca lled o n to assist in crea tin g th e im m en se v o lu m e o f a d d itio n a l cre d it requ ired b y th e fin a n cin g o f th e w ar. T h e ir e ffe ctiv e respon se t o th e call n o t o n ly m a d e p o ssib le th e p ro se cu tio n o f th e w ar b u t e n a b led m a n u factu rers, m erch an ts and farm ers c o n fid e n tly t o co n tin u e th eir affairs. W h e n th e p ea k o f th e G o v e rn m e n t d e b t w as passed last A u tu m n and th ere w as n o n ecessity fo r fu rth er cre d it exp an sion o n a cco u n t o f G o v e rn m e n t o p e ra VOLUME OF BANK LOANS (In millions) Date 1920 July 23 July 16 July 9 July 2 June 25 April 16 1919 Oct. 10 July 18 REPORTING BANKS IN NEW YORK CITY Total Loans U. S. and Investments Securities Rediscounts Including and with Foregoing War Paper F. R. Bank 5,684 883 372 903 5,684 366 5,664 860 385 5,683 879 377 5,694 900 341 5,783 1,006 320 159 131 1,550 1,468 6,010 (high) 5,513 REPORTING BANKS IN ALL DISTRICTS Total Loans U. S. and Rediscounts Securities Investments Including with and Foregoing F. R. Banks War Paper 1,268 1,315 1,314 1,238 1,169 2,280 2,210 2,241 2,298 2,570 16,978 16,901 16,929 16,971 17,186 (hij 468 350 3,500 3,600 15,944 14,841 Between July 18,1919, and July 23,1920, the number of reporting banks in this city increased from 71 to 72 and throughout the country from 769 to 814. FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK tion s, th e F ed eral R e se rv e B an k s to o k steps tow a rd s inau gu rating grad u al deflation . T h e y a d o p te d th e m e th od o f b rin g in g a b o u t a re d u ctio n o f th e cre d it v o lu m e w h ich h ad b een tried a n d tested in oth er cou n tries, i. e. increased d isco u n t rates. T h e se w ere a d v a n ce d , step b y step, fro m th e 4 % p er cen t, rate p rev a ilin g in O c to b e r to th e 7 p er cen t, ra te w h ich was estab lish ed in June. T h e high er rates resu lted in larger earnings, w h ich in tu rn raised th e p e r fe c tly n atural q u e stio n : A re the F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k s p rofiteerin g ? I t is on e o f th e ironies o f th e w ar th a t th e on e b a n k n o t org an ized fo r p ro fit sh ou ld b e m a k in g larger p rofits th a n a n y o th er b a n k in th e co u n tr y . F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k p rofits co m e fro m th e loan s w h ich th e y m a k e t o th eir m em b er b an k s t o en able th em to furn ish cre d it t o th eir cu stom ers. B u t, as th e F ed era l R eserv e B an k s are an a g e n cy o f th e p e o p le t o m a in ta in an elastic cred it a n d cu rren cy system a n d t o stea d y cred it, th e law p ro v id e s th a t a fter p a y in g d iv id en d s o f 6 p er cen t, to th e m em b er ban k s, w h ich are th eir o n ly stock h old ers, a nd a fter a ccu m u latin g a rea son ab le surplus, th e F ed era l R e se rv e B an k s sh ould return the b a la n ce o f th eir earnings to th e p eop le as a con tin g e n t franch ise ta x. T h u s, th e p e o p le are th e residu a ry legatees o f F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k o p era tion s; and th e T r e a s u ry ’ s use o f th e m o n e y thu s retu rn ed is restricted to th e p u r chase o f g ov e rn m e n t b o n d s or p la cin g a d d itio n a l g o ld b eh in d th e green back s. F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k earnings are a reflection o f th e existing degree o f cred it and p rice in flation . In tim es w h en cred it and prices are n orm a l F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k earnings will p r o b a b ly b e v e r y sm all. T h e h igh er d iscou n t rates, establish ed t o stim u late d eflation , are a t presen t increasin g th ese earnings, b u t as th e v o lu m e o f cred it grow s less these earnings will decrease p ro p o rtio n a te ly . I t is n o t a t all u n lik e ly th a t if n o a tte m p t to stim ulate d eflation h ad b een m a d e a n d th e rela tiv ely lo w rates p reva ilin g last A u tu m n h a d b een con tin u ed , th e earnings at th e low er d iscou n t rates m ig h t c o n c e iv a b ly h a v e eq u a lled th ose at p resen t p ro d u ce d b y th e h igh er rates, so fa st was th e general exp an sion and d em an d fo r cred it then p roceed in g. B u t th e co n tin u a n ce o f last A u tu m n ’ s rate o f exp an sion to th e p resen t tim e w o u ld d oub tless h a v e resulted in fa r h igher c o m m o d ity p rices and v e r y w ea k fin ancial co n d itio n s in stead o f th e p resent sou n d b a n k in g p osition . R eserve P e rce n ta g e F ed era l R eserve B anks and B ank o f E n g la n d 3 A n im pression p reva ils th a t th e reserve p e rce n ta g e o f th e B a n k o f E n g la n d runs m u ch lo w e r th a n th e co m p a ra b le p e rce n ta g e o f th e F ed era l R e se r v e B an k s. T h is im pression is d u e t o th e d ifferen t bases used b y th e tw o system s in a rrivin g a t th e p ercen ta ges p u b lish ed . O n th e c o n tra ry a close p arallel is o b se rv a b le w h en th e sam e m e th o d s o f figu rin g reserves are u sed. T h e p u b lish ed reserve p e rce n ta g e o f th e F ed era l R e se r v e S ystem is th e ra tio o f g o ld a n d la w fu l m o n e y to n e t d e m a n d d ep osits and F ed e ra l R e se rv e n o te s in circu la tio n . In th e B a n k o f E n g la n d d e p o s it and n o te lia bilities are m a in ta in ed in separate d e p a rt m en ts. N o te s , w h ich are th e lia b ility o f th e Issu e D e p a r tm e n t, are b a c k e d p o u n d fo r p o u n d b y g o ld , w ith th e e x ce p tio n o f £ 1 8 ,4 5 0 ,0 0 0 w h ich are b a c k e d b y g o v e rn m e n t and oth e r securities. D e p o s its , w h ich are th e lia b ility o f th e B a n k in g D e p a r tm e n t, h a v e a m u ch m o re lim ite d reserve o f g o ld (m a d e u p o f b u llio n , co in a n d B a n k o f E n g la n d n o te s) and silver co in . T h u s on Jun e 30 B a n k o f E n g la n d n otes in circu la tio n h a d a g old reserve o f a b o u t 84 p er cen t, and d ep osits a reserve o f 8.5 p er cen t. B y co m b in in g th em th e reserve w as 38.2 p e r cen t, co m p a rin g w ith a reserve o f 43.6 p e r cen t, fo r th e F ed era l R e se r v e S ystem . T h e fo llo w in g ta b le show s co m p a ra b le reserve p ercen ta ges in 1920: Federal Bank of Bank of Date Reserve England England System Comparable Published Figure Figure Jan. 28.................. 44.5 41.0 19.4 Feb. 25.................. 42.5 38.5 17.0 March 31............... 42.7 46.3 18.5 April 28................. 42.4 45.3 16.5 May 26.................. 42.7 49.1 16.5 June 30.................. 43.6 37.8 8.5 N o te C ir c u la t io n H e a v y exp en ditu res d u rin g th e first w eek o f J u ly , as usual d u rin g h o lid a y p eriod s, crea ted an increased d em a n d fo r circu la tin g cu rre n cy . T o m eet this d e m a n d F ed era l R e se r v e n otes in circu la tio n in this d is tr ic t increased ra p id ly , rea ch in g th e h igh p o in t on J u ly 6, a t $ 886,000,000, an increase o f $32,000,000 fro m Ju n e 18. T h e d eclin e w as a lm ost as ra p id , h o w ever, a n d th e a m o u n t in circu la tio n on J u ly 22 was $842,305,000, a decrease o f $12,500,000 fro m Jun e 18. A re ce n t ca refu l estim ate g ives th e p resen t circu la tio n o f A m e rica n cu rre n cy in C u b a as a b o u t $ 12 5,000,000, o f w h ich $10 0,0 0 0,0 00 is in th e h an d s o f th e b an k s a n d th e rem ain d er in gen eral circu la tio n . T h is cu rre n cy con sists la rg e ly o f F ed era l R e se rv e n otes, o f w h ich large a m ou n ts h a v e b een w ith d ra w n fr o m th is b a n k a n d fro m th e F ed era l R e se rv e B a n k o f A tla n ta . 4 REPORT ON BUSINESS CONDITIONS C o m m e r cia l Paper D e m a n d fo r com m ercia l p a p er has b ro a d e n e d d urin g th e p a st th irty d a y s, and dealers re p o rt a g o o d d is trib u tio n w ith c o u n tr y b an k s. T h e loca l m a rk et also b e ca m e a little m ore a ctiv e , th o u g h purch ases w ere con fin ed a lm ost en tirely t o a few o f th e tru st com p a n ies a n d t o b an k s b u y in g fo r corresp on d en ts. B u t d ue t o th e w id er sale o f p a p er in th e co u n tr y d istricts, dealers re p o r t Ju n e sales larger th a n M a y , a nd som e re p o rt sales ru n n ing ah ea d o f la st yea r at this tim e. In gen eral, th e eastern sectio n o f th e c o u n tr y has p r o v id e d th e b e st m a rk et, th o u g h th ere is a fair sca tterin g o f sales in o th er d istricts. I n creased b u y in g is a ttrib u te d p a rtly to a freer su p p ly o f fu n d s a fter th e m id -y e a r fin ancial tran sfers, and p a r tly to th e h igh offerin g rates. T h ese ru led p rin cip a lly at 8 per ce n t., w ith less w ell k n o w n nam es q u o te d a t 8 )^ an d in o cca sio n a l in sta n ces a t p er cen t. S u p p ly o f p a p er w as p len tifu l a n d in clu d e d m a n y p rim e n am es, b u t dealers say th a t b o rro w e rs ’ d em a n d s h a v e n o t b een p ressin g as the h ig h rates a ct as a stron g d eterren t. T h e B ill M a rk et T h e b ill m a rk et has b e e n q u ite a ctiv e , d u e la rgely t o a stron g d em a n d fo r p rim e N e w Y o r k bills, as th e d em a n d fo r oth er nam es w as o n ly fair. D is tr ib u tio n w as in g o o d v o lu m e , b o th lo ca lly a n d w ith o u t-o f-to w n b an k s. A s a resu lt o f th e d ifficu lty in o b ta in in g p rim e N e w Y o r k bills, th ere d e v e lo p e d tow a rd s th e close o f th e p e rio d a larger d em a n d fo r a ccep ta n ces o f o u t-o f-to w n b an k s. R a te s co n tin u e d u n ch a n g e d ; dealers b id 6^§ p er cen t, fo r p rim e N e w Y o r k 9 0 -d a y bills, w h ich th e y offered a t 6J4 p er cen t. T h e m in im u m p u rch a se rates o f this b a n k co n tin u ed a t 5 ^ t o 6 p er cen t, fo r en d orsed bills. G o ld M ovem ent F r o m J u n e 10 t o J u ly 10 g o ld im p o rts w ere $ 24 ,4 7 0 ,0 0 0 ; exp orts $ 12 ,940,000, a n e t gain o f 000. T h e to ta l excess o f im p orts fo r th e fo u rte e n w eeks, A p ril 1 t o J u ly 10, w as a b o u t $33,200,000, in com p a rison w ith a m o n th ly a v e ra g e e x p o r t excess o f o v e r $40,000,000 d urin g th e ten p reced in g m on th s, th a t is since Ju n e, 1919, w hen th e e m b a rg o was re m o v e d . S ince J u ly 1 a n oth er sh ip m en t o f g o ld fo r th e B ritish G o v e rn m e n t a m ou n tin g t o $ 6,500,000 has b een receiv ed fro m H o n g K o n g , a n d a b o u t $ 5,500,000 o f T ra n sv a a l g o ld b o u g h t in th e L o n d o n m a rk et has b een im p o rte d b y p riv a te ban k ers here. T h e release b y A rg en tin a o f h er cred it b a la n ce w ith th e F ed era l R e se r v e B a n k s, th e re b y o b v ia tin g th e e x p o rt o f g o ld to th e U n ite d S tates, has b een c o n tin u ed . S to ck M a rk et F o r a b rie f p e rio d ea rly in J u ly th e s to ck m a rk et b e ca m e m o r e a ctiv e th a n a t a n y tim e since th e la tte r p a rt o f M a y , and p rices w ere ev e n b u o y a n t. T h is m o v e m e n t a p p ea red to b e b a sed p rin cip a lly u p o n a feelin g th a t w ith th e p assin g o f th e J u ly 1 p a y m e n t p e rio d th e m o n e y m a rk et w o u ld b e m ore fa v o r a b le to h igh er s to ck p rices. T h e failu re o f th ese e x p e cta tio n s t o b e realized, to g e th e r w ith re p o rts o f th rea ten ed p la n t sh u t-d ow n s as a resu lt o f fu el and tra n sp o rta tio n sh orta ge, and e v id e n ce o f sla ck en in g d e m a n d fo r certa in co m m o d itie s, ca u sed a sharp re a ctio n . R a ilr o a d stock s w ere q u ite a ctiv e a n d stron g, a p p a re n tly in flu en ced t o a large e x te n t b y th e e x p e c ta tio n o f an ea rly ra te d e cisio n b y th e In te rsta te C o m m e rce C om m ission . T h e a vera ge p rice o f tw e n ty -fiv e ra ilroad issues rose ro u g h ly 4 p o in ts, and in th e m a r k e t’ s su b se q u e n t w eakness th ese issues h eld th eir a d v a n ce s fa irly w ell. A sim ilar avera ge o f in d u strial s to ck s a d v a n ce d 4 p o in ts , b u t poi nt s fo r b ro k e sh arp ly t o a n e t loss o f a b o u t 2 th e p e rio d . J un e s to ck sales to ta le d 9 ,000,000 shares, th e sm allest to ta l fo r th e m o n th sin ce 1914, a decrease o f 7,200,000 shares as co m p a re d w ith M a y a n d o f 2 3,600,000 as co m p a re d w ith Jun e o f last year. T o t a l sales fo r th e h a lf y e a r w ere slig h tly b e lo w th e first six m o n th s o f 1919 b u t in excess o f th e co rre s p o n d in g p e rio d in o th e r yea rs sin ce 1906. S to ck E xch an ge M oney R a tes T h e s to c k ex ch a n g e m o n e y m a rk e t has co n tin u e d d e cid e d ly tense. T h r o u g h th e final ten d a y s o f Jun e h igh call m o n e y rates reflected th e p ro x im ity o f J u ly 1 d isbu rsem en ts, and d u rin g th e p e rio d o f th e tran sfers renew als rose to 10 p er ce n t., th e h ig h est in fo u r m o n th s, w hile n ew loan s re a ch ed 15 p er ce n t. F o r a fe w d a y s n early 12,000,early $in J u ly , rates sh ow ed a re la tiv e ly easier te n d e n cy . B u t th a t th e situ a tion , fu n d a m e n ta lly , h ad n o t ch a n g e d w as sh ow n b y th e readin ess w ith w h ich rates rose t o 10 and 11 p e r ce n t, on sligh t va ria tion s in su p p ly and d e m a n d . L ittle a c tiv ity w as re p o rte d in tim e m o n e y , a n d rates w ere m o s tly n o m in a l a t 8 ^ to 9 p er c e n t., a cco rd in g t o colla tera l. B ond M ark et A fa ir v o lu m e o f in v e stm e n t b u y in g d e v e lo p e d in th e b o n d m a rk e t fo llo w in g th e close o f th e h a lf yea r. In q u iry w as ch ie fly fo r th e re ce n tly offered high y ie ld ra ilroad a n d fo re ig n g o v e rn m e n t issues, and m a n y b o n d s in th ese grou p s rose fr o m 2 t o 3 p o in ts a b o v e th e origin al sale p rice. T h e re was also a FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK m od era te d em a n d fo r th e season ed, low -in te re st securities, w ith th e resu lt th a t p ra ctica lly all grou p s a verage h igh er th a n a m o n th a go. O f th e u n d erly in g co rp o ra te b o n d s h ig h -g ra d e railroad issues y ie ld in g a rou n d 6 p er cen t, h ad th e greatest stren gth , shared, b u t t o a less degree, b y ra ilroad issues o f a m ore sp ecu la tiv e ch a ra cter. In d u stria l b o n d s w ere ra th er sluggish and a vera ged o n ly sligh t n et ch an ges. P u b lic u tilities issues w ere steadier. In foreig n g o v e rn m e n t securities, Swiss 8s rea ch ed a h igh p o in t o f 1 0 3 )^ , B elg ia n 7 j^ s rose t o 101 as co m p a re d w ith an offerin g p rice o f 9 4 j^ , A n g lo F re n ch 5s w ere firm , a nd U n ited K in g d o m 5 j^ s and P a ris 6s, d u e 1921, rea ch ed n ew h igh levels fo r th e yea r. B o n d sales on th e S to c k E x ch a n g e d u rin g June w ere $ 320,000,000, a con sid era b le d eclin e as c o m p ared w ith A p ril and M a y , b u t m u ch a b o v e Ju n e o f la st yea r. O f this to ta l 80 p er cen t, was in L ib e r ty b o n d s . P.#©• i ?■ i 5 fiveAT/Hf-C P/*/C£S' Or JIjll 0£xry 3c*£> 4 £/, • •* ftfot ft• .. \ • * \ •• $ ft♦ ftft. V£*A$£ O* ft• Pfitei Tnace ft* V Loa#S --•4 «• «»• ft90 % 9 < G overn m en t B onds L ib e r ty b o n d p rices in th e last 30 d a y s m a in ta in ed a fa irly c o n sisten t level, th o u g h th e te n d e n c y a t tim es w as sligh tly d ow n w a rd . T h is b e ca m e m ore m a rk ed in th e final ten d a y s o f th e p e rio d , b u t th ere w as n o im p o r ta n t pressure a nd a loss o f a p o in t b y th e 3 j^ s p r o v e d t o b e th e m a x im u m n et d eclin e in th e list. D u r in g Jun e, sales to ta le d $ 25 7,000,000, as co m p a re d w ith $ 29 9,000,000 in M a y w hen tra d in g w as v e r y h e a v y . T h e d eclin e in L ib e r ty b o n d s in th e last y e a r fro m a b o u t 97 on th e avera ge fo r all issues t o sligh tly b e lo w 89 has h ad its co u n te rp a rt n o t o n ly in th e d eclin e o f h ig h -grad e ra ilroad b o n d s on this m a rk et, b u t in th e d eclin e o f th e th ree p rin cip a l issues o f B ritish w ar loan s. B o n d p rices c o m m o n ly reflect th e d em a n d fo r m o n e y , a nd as m o n e y rates rise b o n d p rices ten d to d eclin e a n d b o n d y ield s to a d v a n ce . T h e strik in g parallel b etw een th ese th ree w id e ly d ifferen t g rou p s o f b o n d s o n tw o d ifferen t m a rk ets is sh ow n in th e a c c o m p a n y in g ch a rt. T o t a l sales o f L ib e r ty a nd V ic to r y b o n d s o n th e N e w Y o r k S to c k E x ch a n g e b y m on th s fr o m J an u ary 1 to J u ly 1 a p p ea r in th e fo llo w in g ta b le : January.......................................... $292 Millions February........................................ 232 “ March..................................... ....... 224 “ April............................................... 269 “ May........................................ ....... 299 June............................................... 257 Six months......................................... $1,573 “ D u r in g this p eriod , sales o f p re-w a r G o v e rn m e n t issues a ggregated $162,000. 1 . Vj% \ If \ Vj J A \ I \ iI k\ \ 1 \l \ \ J 7“*r/V /9ysK/t4f£ Or \ \\ \t \ evenOir&#&LffsvjC i YCZX. To«£ 'jUy , OCT. 1 9 1 9 occ. Tin tte. 41+*. MK /r i yiims. 1 9 2 0 Movement of American and English War Bonds, and representative Railway Bonds, from June, 1919. 6 REPORT ON BUSINESS CONDITIONS N ew F in a n c in g T h e Ju n e o u tp u t o f n ew co r p o ra te securities increa sed sligh tly o v e r M a y , t o a to ta l o f $ 26 6,000,000. B u t fo r th e first tim e sin ce th e a rm istice a d eclin e appears in th e figures fo r a cu rren t m o n th as co m p a re d w ith th e corresp on d in g m o n th in th e p rece d in g year. T h is decrease m ore th a n offset a d d itio n a l foreig n g o v e rn m e n t fin a n cin g here b y B elg iu m , a m o u n tin g t o $50,000,000. In d u stria l stock s co n tin u e d t o p re p on d era te, w ith n ea rly 50 p er cen t, o f th e to t a l. R a ilr o a d n otes and b o n d s a ggregated $50,000,000, or n ea rly 20 p er cen t, o f all issues. O f to ta l Jun e fin a n cin g it is estim a ted th a t less th a n 20 p er cen t, was used t o refu n d or p a y o ff m a tu rin g o b lig a tion s. T h ere was th e usual increase in offerin gs in J u ly a n d som e large issues w ere rea d ily a b so rb e d , in clu d in g a $ 25 ,000,000 loa n t o S w itzerlan d b earin g a c o u p o n ra te o f 8 p er cen t, a n d offered a t p ar. D e s p ite th e d em a n d sh ow n fo r th ese issues fu rth er fin a n cin g w as slow in a p p earin g. A p p a re n tly high in terest a nd h ig h c o s t o f m aterials su b sta n tia lly cu t d o w n b o rro w in g op era tion s. S ince th e first o f th e y ea r n ew fin a n cin g has rea ch ed th e record b rea k in g to ta l o f $ 1,8 00 ,0 00 ,0 00 , an in crease o f $61 7,0 0 0,0 00 as co m p a re d w ith th e sam e p e rio d last yea r. R a ilr o a d secu rity flota tio n s since J a n u a ry 1 are estim a ted a t $ 27 8,000,000 n otes and b o n d s , th e m a jo r ity m a tu rin g in ten years. F o r e ig n E xch an ge The d u ll E u ro p e a n and in a ctiv e exch an ges w ere th ro u g h o u t th e greater p a r t o f th e 30 d a y s en ded J u ly 20, and g a v e th e a p p ea ra n ce o f w a itin g fo r th e o u tco m e o f th e S p a con feren ce. A t tim es co n sid e r able w eakness w as d isp la y ed , esp ecia lly d u rin g th e last w eek , and th e p rin cip a l exch an ges closed th e p e rio d at a lo w e r level th a n on Ju n e 20. A sharp b rea k in sterling, n o tw ith sta n d in g th e a rriva l o f a n o th e r sh ip m en t o f g o ld fro m E n g la n d , ca rried th e rate t o $3.83 o n J u ly 19, 16 cen ts b e lo w th a t o n Jun e 21, and 23 cen ts b e lo w th e h igh est le v e l o f th e y ea r, w h ich w as to u ch e d ea rly in A p ril. T h e b re a k fo llo w e d lib era l offerin gs o f com m e rcia l b ills a n d rep orts th a t a serious d isag reem en t h ad arisen a t th e Spa co n fe re n ce . T h e su dd en increase o f bills, p a rt o f th e m grain b ills, was la rg e ly t o c o v e r sh ip m en ts o f fre ig h t w h ich h a d b een h eld u p b y strik e co n d itio n s in this p o rt. F ran cs and lire h a v e b e e n v e r y e rra tic w ith m o d e ra te trad in g. B o t h h a v e b een u n d er co n sid e r able pressure, a n d fo llo w in g th e a ctio n o f sterlin g, lo st g ro u n d d u rin g th e p a s t w eek . T h e b re a k in lire w as som ew h a t p re cip ita te a n d th e ra te rea ch ed 5.78, a loss o f 28 p o in ts fr o m th e closin g ra te on J un e 21. G erm an m ark s h eld firm a ro u n d 2.60, w ith tran saction s ligh t. D u e t o th e d ecrease in A rg e n tin a ’ s e x p o rt trad e, p rin cip a lly in h ides, leath er a n d w h ea t, ex ch a n g e on th a t co u n tr y has d e clin e d fr o m 95.6 t o 89.6 d u rin g th e last 30 d a y s. A s a resu lt o f th e a d v e rse e x ch a n ge th e A rg e n tin e G o v e rn m e n t has released cr e d it w h ich has b e e n on d e p o s it in this co u n tr y . W ith a steadier silver m a rk e t th e F a r E a stern exch an ges h a v e ch a n g e d little , w ith th e e x ce p tio n o f In d ia n rupees, w h ich d e clin e d fr o m 3934 t o 3 5 % a n d th en re co v e re d t o 3 6 % o n th e 19th. R a te s d u rin g th e cu rren t p e rio d are g iv e n b e lo w . F o r e ig n T rade H e a v y im p o rts , e x ce e d in g b o t h in d o lla r v a lu e a n d re la tiv e v o lu m e th e to ta ls o f all p re v io u s m o n th s, are sh ow n b y th e J u n e fo re ig n trad e figures o f th e co u n tr y . In d o lla r va lu e im p o rts fo r FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES England............................ France................................. Ita ly ................................. Spain................................... Argentine.......................... China (Hongkong)............ China (Shanghai. . ) ......... Japan (Yokohama)........... Germany........................... Switzerland....................... Sweden (Stockholm)......... Holland............................. Belgium............................ *Premium xSilver exchange basis. JUNE 26 High Low 3.95% 3.99K 8.61 7.99 6.21 6.05 16.75 16.64 42.10 41.50 75.75 72.75 105.00 99.00 51.25 51.25 2.74 2.65 18.21 18.15 21.93 21.80 35.937 35.625 8.73 8.33 JULY 3 JULY 10 JULY 17 High Low High Low Low High 3.96% 3.95 3,93% 3.94% 3.86 y8 3.94M 8.52 8.18 8.55 8.30 8.44 8.22 6.18 5.89 6.18 6.03 6.02 5.88 16.68 16.40 16.40 16.20 16.13 16.04 41.90 41.50 41.75 41.25 41.375 41.125 75.50 73.75 74.00 72.00 74.50 72.75 105.50 103.00 104.00 103.00 104.50 102.00 51.25 51.25 51.375 51.25 51.50 51.375 2.65 2.59 2.66 2.62 2.63 2.54 18.15 18.08 18.02 17.95 17.95 17.67 22.08 21.90 22.15 22.00 22.10 22.00 35.50 35.25 35.375 35.25 35.25 34.875 8.87 8.63 9.03 9.03 8.91 8.81 Percentage of deprecia tion from par week of July 17 20.5 57.4 69.5 16.9 3.1 —X -----X 3.1* 89.3 8.4 17.9 13.2 54.4 7 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK th e m o n th in creased $ 122,000,000 o v e r th e M a y to ta l to $ 553,000,000. N o t o n ly is this th e h ig h est y e t rep o rte d , b u t ev en a fter a llow a n ce has b e e n m a d e fo r seasonal v a ria tio n a n d th e rise in p rices it is sligh tly in excess o f th e record h e a v y v o lu m e a tta in ed la st S ep tem b er. E x p o rts in Jun e d eclin ed in d ollars, fro m M a y , $ 10 8,000,000 t o $631,000,000. A p p ly in g th e sam e correction s to these figures, it appears th a t ex p orts are ten d in g sligh tly d ow n w a rd . C on flictin g ten d en cies in th e e x p o rt m a rk e t are sh ow n b y th e orders n o w co m in g t o A m e rica n exp orters fro m a b roa d . T h ere is a w a n in g d em a n d fo r textiles, d ry g o o d s , clo th in g , m a n y k in d s o f ch em ica ls, and gen erally o f all p ro d u cts in w h ich re a c tio n a r y p rice m o v e m e n ts la te ly h a v e b e c o m e m a rk ed . L ig h t leathers a n d shoes h a v e b een v e r y q u ie t fo r several m on th s, b u t th ere is still a d em a n d fo r h e a v y sole leath ers, p a rticu la rly fr o m E n g la n d and F ra n ce . E x p o rts o f ra w c o t to n co n tin u e t o reflect th e d eclin e in J apan ese b u y in g and th e m ore ca u tiou s a ttitu d e w h ich B ritish and C on tin en ta l m ills a d o p te d as a resu lt o f an a p p a ren t sla ck en in g in th e m a rk e t fo r c o t to n g o o d s ; sh ip m en ts d u rin g Ju n e w ere o n ly 241,450 bales, as co m p a re d w ith 363,104 bales d u rin g M a y and 693,879 b ales d u rin g Jun e la st yea r. A s o p p o s e d t o th ese soften in g ten d en cies a ste a d y t o stron g d em a n d is re p o rte d fo r m aterials w h ich te n d t o increase p r o d u c tiv e ca p a c ity . O rders fo r electrica l eq u ip m e n t are h e a v y , a n d m a n u fa ctu rers foresee a w id en in g field in co n n e c tio n w ith large h y d ro -e le c tric p o w e r and ra ilw a y e lectrifica tio n p r o j ects in I ta ly , F ra n ce, S ca n d in a v ia a n d S ou th A m erica . R a ilr o a d supplies are u rg e n tly n eed ed a n d th ere is large b u y in g o f co n s tr u c tio n su pplies fr o m th e E a s t In d ies, B ritish In d ia a n d S o u th A m erica . M a teria ls w a n ted are co n s tr u c tio n m a ch in ery , h e a v y h ardw are, iron a n d steel, and ce m en t. D e m a n d fo r m a ch in ery has d eclin e d in J ap an , b u t E u ro p e a n cou n tries co n tin u e to b u y in large v olu m e. T h e Japanese crisis and a fa llin g off in C h in ese p u r chases a p p a ren tly h a v e cau sed a n e t d ecrease in iron a n d steel e x p o rt ord ers. T h o u g h ca n cella tio n s h a v e d im in ish ed , m aterials are still b ein g tu rn e d b a c k as letters o f cre d it exp ire. S o fa r re-sales h a v e b een rea d ily effected . T h e re is som e d ifferen ce o f o p in io n a m on g exp orters as t o th e steel m a rk et elsew here. S om e re p o rt th a t in E u ro p e and S ou th A m e rica th e pressure t o b u y th ere is less. S om e co m p e titio n in S ou th A m erica fro m B ritish a n d B elg ia n steel p r o d u cers is rep orted , b u t it is said t o b e n o t y e t an im p o r ta n t fa c to r in m o s t m aterials. W h a t a m ou n ts a lm ost t o an em b a rg o on co a l e x p o rts , b y th e p rio rity rulings o f th e In te rsta te C o m m erce C om m ission , b e ca m e e ffe ctiv e J un e 24, th o u g h som e co a l is still g o in g o u t. D e m a n d fo r co a l fro m C o n tin e n ta l E u ro p e a m d S o u th A m e rica has b een m u ch in excess o f s u p p ly . E x p o r t p rices at H a m p to n R o a d s h a v e b een ra n gin g a rou n d $16.00 a to n , an a d v a n ce sin ce th e first o f th e y e a r o f n early $6.00 a to n . B itu m in o u s sh ip m en ts fro m J a n u a ry 1 t o J un e 1 to ta le d 8 ,751,000 ton s, a h e a v y increase as co m p a re d w ith last y ea r b u t o n ly sligh tly m o re th a n 4 p er cen t, o f p r o d u c tio n d u rin g th e sam e p e rio d . T h e re is a h e a v y grain m o v e m e n t overseas, b u t d em a n d fo r m o s t o th e r fo o d s tu ffs is re la tiv e ly ligh t. T h e c o p p e r e x p o rt m a rk e t b e ca m e so m e w h a t m ore a ctiv e ow in g in p a r t t o pu rch ases u n d er th e F re n ch cre d it arra n gem en t. D e m a n d fo r A m e rica n a u t o m o b ile s a n d a u t o m o tiv e p ro d u cts is re p o rte d still stron g. F o r e ig n B ank R a tes O fficial b a n k rates in th e lea d in g fin a n cia l cen ters h a v e rem ain ed u n ch a n g e d . P r iv a te rates in L o n d o n co n tin u e a t 6 j^ t o 6-11 16 fo r 60 to 90 d a y b ills, a n d call m o n e y has ra n ged b e tw een 4 ^ and 6 % p er cen t, d u rin g th e p a s t 30 d a ys. B ritish ra ilw a y shares w ere re p o rte d selling a t lo w record s in J un e, and y ie ld in g as h igh as 9 p er cen t. T h e fo llo w in g are th e p resen t b a n k rates in fin ancial ce n te r s : Bank of England.................................... Bank of France...................................... German Reichsbank............................... Bank of Italy.......................................... Bank of Japan........................................ P r o d u c tio n and T rad e i n E n g la n d Rate 7 6 5 6 8 Changed April 15, 1920 April 8, 1920 December 23, 1914 May 13, 1920 November 18, 1919 P r o d u c tio n in E n g la n d still lags, a n d a cco rd in g to an estim a te m a d e b y R e g in a ld M c K e n n a , ch a irm a n o f th e L o n d o n J o in t C ity and M i d la n d B a n k , is 80 p e r cen t, o f w h a t it w as b e fo r e th e war. T h e o u tp u t o f p ig iron and steel in th e U n ite d K in g d o m , w h ile larger th a n a y e a r a g o a n d in M a y rea ch ed th e h igh est v o lu m e fo r a n y m o n th since th e a rm istice, rem ain s som ew h a t b e lo w th e 1913 ra te o f p ro d u ctio n . T h e Ju n e o u tp u t w as 726 ,00 0 to n s o f p ig iron a n d 745 ,00 0 to n s o f steel. T h e p resen t ra te o f co a l p ro d u ctio n w o u ld in d ica te n ea rly 2 5 0 ,000,000 to n s fo r th e y e a r 1920, as co m p a re d w ith 287 ,00 0 ,00 0 to n s d u rin g 1913, th e re co rd yea r. T h e textile indu stries h a v e fe lt a re a ctio n fo r so m e w eeks, d u e t o a p au se in b u y in g a ctiv ity . D e m a n d has b een o n a re d u ce d scale in b o th h o m e and fo re ig n m ark ets a n d ca n ce lla tio n s o f orders are re p o rte d fro m th e F a r E a st. R e p o r ts o f c r o p co n d itio n s in M a y w ere h ig h ly fa v o r a b le a n d th e B ritish P rim e M in is te r 8 REPORT ON BUSINESS CONDITIONS has co m p la in e d th a t agricu ltu re is th e o n ly on e o f the grea t indu stries y ield in g a greater o u tp u t t o -d a y th a n b e fo re th e w ar. U n e m p lo y m e n t in E n g la n d , a cco rd in g to trad e u n ion figures, stea d ily d ecreased fro m 3.2 p er cen t, in D e c e m b e r t o 0.9 p er cen t, in A p ril, b u t rose t o 1.1 p er cen t, in M a y . E n g la n d ’ s u n fa v o r a b le b a la n ce o f tra d e has been slig h tly red u ced sin ce th e first o f th e yea r. T h e b a la n ce fo r th e six m on th s en d ed Jun e 30 last, w as £ 2 7 0 ,4 0 5 ,0 0 0 as co m p a re d w ith £ 3 2 6 ,8 5 0 ,0 0 0 fo r th e first h a lf o f 1919, b u t this ch a n ge w as d u e m a in ly to th e large increase in e x p o rt valu es. T h e actu a l to n n a g e o f ex p orts o f th e U n ite d K in g d o m d u rin g th e first fiv e m on th s o f 1920 w as p ra ctica lly th e sam e as d u rin g th e co rresp on d in g p e rio d o f 1919, and o n ly h a lf th a t o f th e corresp on d in g p e rio d o f 1913. T h e grea ter p a r t o f this d eclin e is d u e to decreased ex p orts o f co a l a n d co k e , th o u g h there w as a decrease also in th e ton n a g e ex p orts o f n ea rly all co m m o d itie s. A lth o u g h th ere w as a d ecrease in th e v a lu e o f im p o rts fr o m J an u ary t o M a y , th e a ctu a l v o lu m e has sh ow n an increase fro m 3 ,316,000 to n s t o 3,87 8,00 0 ton s, d u e a lm ost en tirely t o in crea sed im p orts o f raw m aterials and u n m a n u fa ctu red articles. F e b ru a ry 1. T h irty -s e v e n articles m a k in g up^B rads tre e t’ s in d ex m o v e d low er, w h ile 23 a d v a n ce d and 44 rem ain ed u n ch a n g e d . I t is o f in terest to n o te th a t w hile th e B u rea u o f L a b o r in d ex rose 32 p e r cen t, fro m th e a rm istice t o th e recen t h igh p o in t, th e oth er indices o f c o m m o d ity p rices in th is c o u n tr y rose o n ly 10 t o 15 p er cen t. C o m m o d ity P r ic e s The movement of three indices of wholesale price changes from the Armistice. Prices for November, 1918, taken as a base of 100. T h e re is co n tin u e d e v id e n ce in th e v a riou s ind ices th a t p rices th e w orld o v e r are te n d in g t o d eclin e, a lth ou g h v e r y sligh tly in th is co u n tr y . T h e B u rea u o f L a b o r in d ex o f w h olesa le p rices fo r Ju n e w en t d o w n a b o u t 1 p er ce n t., fro m 272 t o 269— th e first d eclin e sin ce S ep tem b er, 1919. T h e d eclin es w ere in fo o d a nd clo th in g , b u t fuels and ligh tin g and h ou se fu rn ish in g g o o d s co n tin u e d t o a d v a n ce , th e la tte r rising fro m 339 t o 362. T h e in d ex o f 12 b a s ic c o m m o d ities p rep a red b y th is b a n k sh ow s a d eclin e fro m th e h igh p o in t o f 112.9 on M a y 17 t o 108.8 o n J u ly 19. B o th D u n ’ s a n d B ra d s tre e t’ s in d ices co n tin u e d o w n w a rd . D u n ’ s h a d d eclin ed a p p ro x im a te ly 1 p er cen t, on J u ly 1 fr o m th e h ig h p o in t o f M a y 1, a n d B ra d s tre e t’ s 7.2 p er cen t, fr o m th e h igh p o in t o f o° r T / --T* /A / f / \ \ ____ // \ \ _z3 ft \ ?o r ***.. /s ( \ - /Z 9/C r£ 0 4: * fi - I \ / ■ ' —.... //.. - - / n n/ 1 1 1 Ccr /9 /S *£SC K VCOf JO ftN K ^ . i i 1 rfPA /? /? 1 1 1 1 ...JIM 1 ---------- 1 /9*x. JZZy /9 X 0 B o th th e E c o n o m is t and S ta tist in d ices o f E n glish prices re co rd e d fu rth er declin es in Jun e. T h e E c o n o m is t in d ex d ro p p e d 4.3 p er ce n t., as co m p a re d w ith sm all declin es in M a y and A p ril. C ereals and m eats w ere an e x ce p tio n t o th e gen eral tren d . F re n ch p rices tu rn ed d o w n w a rd in M a y fo r th e first tim e since A u g u st, 1919, w ith a d eclin e o f n e a rly 6 p er cen t. B o th Ita lia n and J ap an ese p rices co n tin u e d on th e d o w n w a rd cou rse in Jun e, th e fo rm e r d ecreasin g 6.8 p er ce n t, a n d th e la tte r 8.82 p e r cen t. T h e ta b le b e lo w gives th e la te st a v a ila b le figures o f th e v a riou s in d e x n u m bers, to g e th e r w ith th e p re ce d in g figures a n d th e p e rce n ta g e ch a n ges. D O M E S T IC A N D F O R E IG N P R IC E C H A N G E S Indices Latest Available Bureau of Labor........ 269 (June Average) This Bank’s Index (12 basic commodities) . 108.8 (July 17) 260.4 (July 1) Dun’s......................... Bradstreet’s ............... 19.35 (July 1) Economist (British).. 7847 (June 30) Statist (British)......... 300 (June) French........................ 550 (May) Italian........................ 614 (June) Japanese.................... 248 (June) Canadian.................... 258 (June) Preceding 272 (May Average) 108.5 262 19.87 8199 305 584 659 272 263 (July 12) (June 1) (June 1) (May 31) (May) (April) (May) (May) (May) Per Cent. Change Highest —1.10 272 —0.61 —2.62 —4.29 —1.64 —5.82 —6.83 —8.82 —1.90 112.9 263 20.86 8352 313 584 679 321 263 (May Average) (May 17) (May 1) (Feb. 1) (Mar. 31) (April) (April) (April) (March) (May) Per Cent. Decline from High Point 1.10 3.63 .99 7.24 6,05 4.15 5.82 9.57 22.74 1.90 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK M a n u fa c t u r in g In this d istrict, gen erally spea k in g, m a n u fa ctu rin g has con tin u e d a t a re m a rk a b ly h igh level d esp ite th e d u ll ness in th e textile and leath er m a rk ets. S om e indu stries sh ow ed su bstan tia l increases o v e r th e p re ce d in g m o n th . In th e case o f cereal m ills a n d o f m a n u fa ctu rers o f b evera ges a nd ca n n ed g o o d s , th ese increases w ere seasonal. B u t b e tte r traffic m o v e m e n t b ro u g h t larger su pplies o f ra w m aterials a n d en a b led m a n y fa ctories, su ch as th ose m a k in g ru b b e r g o o d s , glass and p o tte r y , to increase p r o d u ctio n . Su gar refineries are w ork in g a t h igh pressure, b u t som e c a n d y fa ctories h a v e sligh tly re d u ce d th eir o u tp u t. M a n u fa ctu re rs o f t o b a c c o p ro d u cts , d u e t o th e a d ju s tm e n t o f la b o r trou b les, are m o re a ctiv e th a n a m o n th a go. J ew elry m a n u fa ctu rers are b u s y a n d h a v e a con sid era b le v o lu m e o f orders fo r articles fo r th e C hristm as h o lid a y trad e. B o th th e y and m a n u fa ctu rers o f silverw are are o n ly n o w b eg in n in g t o ca tc h u p w ith th e un usual d e m a n d o f th e p a s t six m on th s. P rices o f silverw are h a v e re ce n tly b een re d u ce d as a resu lt o f th e d eclin e in b a r silver. T h e a m ou n t o f b u ild in g u n d er w a y has stim u la ted th e p r o d u ctio n o f lim e, cem en t a n d cu t ston e, b u t sh orta ge o f coa l and cars con tin u es t o p re v e n t a n y g re a t exp an sion in th ese indu stries. O n e large w oolen c o m p a n y sh u t d o w n several o f its m ills in J u ly fo r an in d efin ite p e rio d , and m a n u factu rers o f clo th in g , textiles, and furs are w ith o u t th e usual v o lu m e o f fall orders. B u t in th ese trades th e w a v e o f ca n cella tion s cu rren t in th e late sprin g appears to h a v e passed, stock s o f w h o le salers and retailers h a v e b een p a r tly liq u id a te d , and a b e tte r feelin g is rep orted . B u ild in g I t b ecom es in crea sin gly e v id e n t th a t th e real d eterren t t o h ou sin g co n s tru ctio n is th e s ca rc ity o f m o rtg a g e m o n e y to fin a n ce such p ro je c ts . W ith o th er form s o f in v e stm en t offerin g e q u a lly h ig h return s, in som e cases w ith th e a d d ition a l a d v a n ta g e o f b e in g ta x e x e m p t and w ith o u t an eq u a l elem en t o f risk, m o n e y is a ttra cte d elsew here. In sta n ces are cite d o f c o n tra ctors w h o w ere p rom ised fu n d s several m on th s a go n ow b ein g u n ab le t o secu re th em . F u n d s su p p lied b y in su ran ce com p a n ies and sim ilar o rg a n izations are in a d eq u a te t o m eet th e d em a n d , th e b u lk o f w h ich has h ith erto been su p p lied b y in d iv id uals and trust estates. T h is situ a tion is a g g ra v a te d , p a rticu la rly in N e w Y o r k C ity , b y th e fa c t th a t in d ustrial and business b u ild in g , b a c k e d b y stron ger fin an cial interests, is able to a b sorb m ore th a n its p r o p o rtio n a te share o f th e sm all su p p ly o f m aterials and la b or. 9 C o m p a re d w ith a m o n th a go, b u ild in g f o r residen tial p u rp oses in th e S tates n o rth o f th e O h io and east o f th e M isso u ri rivers has fallen still fu rth er b e h in d req u irem en ts. F igu res co m p ile d b y th e F . W . D o d g e C o m p a n y fo r th a t se ctio n o f th e co u n tr y sh ow th a t co n tra cts a w a rd ed fo r residen tial b u ild in g s d e clin e d fro m 3,217 in M a y t o 2,692 in Ju n e, a loss o f 525 w h ich is o n ly sligh tly less th a n th e d eclin e fro m 6,198 t o 5,588 in th e n u m b e r o f co n tra cts a w ard ed fo r all p u rp oses. W h ile co n tra cts a w arded fo r in d u strial and business co n s tru ctio n d e clin ed sligh tly in n u m b er, th e v a lu e o f th e J u n e p r o je c ts e x ce e d e d th a t o f th o se fo r M a y . D u r in g th e first h alf o f 1920 co n tra cts a w ard ed fo r all p u rp oses to ta lle d $1,5 42 ,5 85 ,0 00 as a gain st $ 98 3,5 2 0,0 00 in 1919. T h e a ctu a l b u ild in g a c tiv ity rep resen ted b y this a p p a re n t increase is less th a n th e figures w ou ld in d ica te , b e ca u se o f h igh er co n s tru ctio n costs. Iron a n d M e ta ls D e s p ite th e im m en se v o lu m e o f fre ig h t n o w b e in g m o v e d , ca r and co a l sh orta ge is still h a m p erin g th e steel m ills to su ch an e x te n t th a t it is estim a ted th a t o v e r 2,000,000 to n s o f finished m aterials are p iled in ya rd s th ro u g h o u t th e co u n tr y or lo a d e d on cars a w a itin g sh ip m en t. T h e p rice o f co k e has risen t o $18 and $19 a to n . C o m p la in ts are m a d e b y p r o d u cers th a t th e co n tin u a tio n t o A u g u st 21 o f th e ord er restrictin g th e use o f o p e n -to p cars t o co a lca rryin g w ill a g g ra v a te this co n g e stio n . The un s a tisfa cto ry co n d itio n s in th e Y o u n g s to w n and P ittsb u rg h d istricts h a v e th ro w n som e business to E a stern m ills nearer th eir m a rk ets a n d th erefore a ble t o m a k e som e sh ip m en ts b y m o to r tru ck s. S tru ctu ra l orders in J u n e w ere fo r o n ly 90,400 ton s, a d eclin e o f 11 p e r cen t, fro m M a y a n d o n ly 50 p er cen t, o f th e c o u n t r y ’ s sh op ca p a c ity . H o w e v e r , th e to ta l to n n a g e p la ce d d u rin g th e first h a lf o f th e y ea r was 779,200 ton s, o r 72 p er cen t, o f ca p a c ity , a gain st o n ly 323,900 tons d u rin g th e first h a lf o f 1919. P ig iron p ro d u ctio n d u rin g Jun e sh ow ed a d a ily avera ge increase o v e r M a y o f 5,000 ton s a n d th e figu re fo r th e first h a lf o f 1920, 18,138,986 ton s, was e xceed ed o n ly d u rin g th e years 1916 and 1917. S ince Ju n e 15 th e p rice o f b asic, v a lle y fu rn a ce, has increased $2 a to n t o $46, and B essem er, P itts b u rg h , $3 a to n to $47.40. C o k e has in creased fro m $2 to $3 a to n . P u rch a ses o f c o p p e r fo r fo re ig n interests co n tin u e g o o d and d o m e stic con su m ers are sh ow in g m ore interest, b u t th e p rice con tin u es firm a t 19 cen ts. T h e lead and tin m a rk ets are q u ie t, w ith th e p rice o f lead sligh tly lo w er a n d th a t o f tin 5 cen ts a p o u n d h igh er th a n a m o n th a go. Z in c is stron g and h igh er th a n a m o n th a go, d u e t o th e s ca rcity ca u sed b y th e closin g d o w n o f m ines in th e J o p lin d istrict. 10 REPORT ON BUSINESS CONDITIONS C o tto n and W ool A t th e close o f th e p e rio d h e a v y b u y in g o f c o t t o n fo r J u ly d e liv e ry ca rried th e p rice t o 4 2 ^ cen ts a p o u n d , th e h ig h est p rice rea ch ed b y th a t o p tio n thus fa r this yea r, an a d v a n ce o f $35 a b ale in fo u r w eeks. T h is a ctio n a pp eared t o b e la rgely th e resu lt o f sp e c u la tiv e b u y in g t o c o v e r sh ort sales earlier in th e m o n th , b u t th e a d v a n ce w as also stim u lated b y a sim ilar a d v a n ce in s p o t c o t to n , b y reason o f increased h o m e and foreig n d em a n d fro m m a n u fa ctu rers, w h ich ca rried s p o t c o t to n t o 43 cen ts a p o u n d , w ith in ° f a ce n t o f its recen t re co rd p rice. A fa c to r o f p rim e im p o rta n ce in th ese a d v a n ce s w as th e re-en tra n ce o f E n glish tra d e b u y in g in fair v o lu m e a fter an a lm ost co m p le te cessation o f b u y in g fo r o v e r th ree w eeks. I t fu rth er ap p eared th a t th e a d v a n ce , p a rticu la rly o f s p o t c o t to n , w as b a sed t o a large ex ten t on th e d ifficu lty o f securing d eliveries b y rail a t p resen t. P rices fo r d eliveries o u t o f th e n ew cr o p m o v e d sligh tly h igh er d u rin g th e p e rio d on rep orts o f th e spread o f th e b o ll w eev il o v e r m u ch o f th e c o t to n b e lt on b o th sides o f th e M ississip p i and to new s o f d w a rfed p la n ts d u e to th e la te season, as w ell as to la b o r s ca rcity w h ich is p re v e n tin g p ro p e r cu lti v a tio n . M a n u fa ctu r in g has b een in crea sin g sligh tly d u rin g th e p eriod as e v id e n ce d b y th e increased co n su m p tio n sh ow n in th e G o v e rn m e n t’ s Ju n e rep ort. D o m e s tic m ill ta k in gs in Ju n e increased 6 p er cen t, o v e r th ose in M a y , w hereas th ere is u su a lly a seasonal d eclin e o f a b o u t 4 p er cen t, in Jun e. E x p o rts , on th e oth e r h an d , w ere p a rticu la rly sm all. T h e rece n tly im p r o v e d foreig n d em a n d , h ow ev er, w ill p r o b a b ly sh ow in th e e x p o rt figures in th e n ear fu tu re. T h e ra w w o o l m a rk et has co n tin u ed n a rrow and iq u et, w ith little e x p e cta tio n o f ren ew ed a c tiv ity u n til a fter th e co m p le tio n o f th e p resen t liq u id a tio n o f retail stock s o f clo th in g a n d u n til th e w o o le n m ills b eg in receiv in g orders in sufficien t v o lu m e to w a rran t a resu m p tion o f fu ll tim e a c tiv ity . F a ilu r e s T h e lo n g p e rio d o f rela tiv e im m u n ity fr o m com m e rcia l failu res was b ro k e n in Jun e. T h e liabilities in this d istrict a m ou n ted to $ 16 ,218,230, a larger sum th an the c o m b in ed figures fo r th e p re ce d in g m on th s o f 1920 and fo u r tim es as large as in Jun e o f la st y ea r. T h e n u m b er o f failu res w as 164 in J u n e, a gain st 133 in M ay. In th e U n ite d S tates as a w h ole, failures o f m a n u fa ctu rin g con cern s h a v in g lia bilities in excess o f $100,000 w ere greater in n u m b er th a n in a n y J u n e sin ce 1912. Failu res o f tra d e con cern s in v o lv in g liabilities in a lik e a m o u n t w ere m o re n u m erou s th a n in a n y J un e sin ce 1915. T h e to ta l n u m b er o f fa il ures in th e co u n tr y fo r th e en tire h a lf-y e a r, h o w e v e r, was th e sm allest fo r a n y co rre sp o n d in g p e rio d since 1881. L ia b ilities w ere su b sta n tia lly m o re th a n in th e first six m o n th s o f 1919, b u t less th a n in p re ce d in g years. T h e fo llo w in g figures are fo r th e S e co n d F e d e ra l R e se rv e D is t r ic t ta k e n fro m th e D u n re p o r ts: Number of Failures January February March April May June Liabilities 1920 103 75 139 117 133 164 1919 134 102 102 107 93 104 1920 $1,212,644 1,062,322 6,213,228 2,865,153 2,413,591 16,218,230 1919 $3,258,200 2,686,546 4,033,003 4,365,258 3,194,187 4,040,301 731 642 $29,985,168 $21,577,495 C o lle c t io n s S ligh t im p r o v e m e n t in co lle ctio n s has o ccu rre d re ce n tly , b u t th e y w ere o n ly slow t o fair in N e w Y o r k C ity a n d v ic in ity d u rin g th e p a st m o n th a lth o u g h b e tte r in th e A lb a n y and B u ffa lo region s. L a rg e h ou ses are tig h te n in g up on a cco u n ts w h ich th e y h a d b een p e rm ittin g to run alon g. Sm aller dealers w h o h a d n o t b een as len ien t, are pressin g th eir claim s m o re u rg en tly . T h e general slow ness in m eetin g o b lig a tio n s is a ttrib u te d t o tran sit co n g e stio n , t o th e dullness in m a n y lines o f tra d e a n d to th e cre d it strin g e n cy . A p p lica tio n s fo r renew als h a v e b e e n s o m e w h a t h e a v y fro m hou ses d ealin g in textiles a n d fu rs, a n d p a y m en ts b y m illin ery hou ses a n d b y m a n u fa ctu rers o f w aists and dresses are slow . C o lle ctio n s are re p o rte d g o o d , h o w e v e r, b y dealers in p ia n o s, t o b a c c o p ro d u cts a n d a fe w oth e r articles. R e ta ile rs are slow t o o p e n n ew ch a rg e a cco u n ts a n d are m o re strict in th e reg u la tion o f th ose a t p resen t o n th eir b o o k s . R e ta il T rade S ea son a ble w ea th er a n d clea ra n ce sales stim u lated m a n y lines o f retail tra d e in th e S e co n d F ed era l R e se rv e D is tr ic t d u rin g June. P u rch ases b y in d ivid u als fo r th eir v a ca tio n n eeds and b y su m m er tou rists in N e w Y o r k C ity h a v e b een large. F igu res co m p ile d fo r d e p a rtm e n t stores in this d istrict sh ow th e v a lu e o f sales in N e w Y o r k C ity 25 p er cen t, h igh er, a n d in oth er cities 35 p er cen t, high er, th a n J u n e o f a y ea r a go. B u t b u y in g o f th e h ig h e r-p rice d m erch a n d ise has fallen o ff d u rin g th e m o n th , a n d co n se rv a tism has b een th e rule. T h e p u b lic has b e n efited b y sales o f shoes and clo th in g a t p rices o fte n b e lo w rep la cem en t c o s t b eca u se retail s to ck s w ere larger th a n stores co u ld a fford t o ca rry . A c o m p e te n t a u th o rity esti FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK m ates th e a vera ge re d u ctio n in th e p rice o f clo th in g since A p r il 1 t o b e a b o u t 33 p er cen t. T h ere h a v e b een red u ction s in th e m a n u fa ctu re rs’ prices o f gin gh am s, silks, furs, sh oes, a n d a fe w oth e r articles, w h ich m a y b e p assed o n t o th e retail c o n sum er. B u t th e ru n o f w h olesale p rices in o th e r lines, as in k n it u n derw ea r a nd o th e r k n it g o o d s , a n d retail p rices o f h ig h -grad e fu rn itu re, m u sical in stru m en ts, a n d electrica l specialties, has b een fa irly stea d y. R eta ilers are b u y in g ca u tiou sly a n d w ith a v ie w t o secu rin g o n ly articles o f a stap le n atu re. T h e y h a v e re d u ced th eir stock s m a teria lly sin ce th e h ig h levels o f M a r c h , b u t sh ow n o w a d isp osition t o increase th eir ou tsta n d in g orders t o m eet fu tu re n eeds. R a i lr o a d s In this d istrict, fre ig h t m o v e and m e n t o n th e lea d in g ra ilroad s h as T ran sste a d ily im p r o v e d d u rin g th e p a s t p o r ta tio n m o n th a n d m o s t o f th e roa d s re p o rt increases fro m w eek t o w eek in th e lo a d e d fre ig h t-ca r m o v e m e n t on th eir v a riou s lines. T h e freig h t con g estion w h ich co n tin u e d fo r a n u m b er o f w eeks a fter th e A p ril strike h a d lo st its fo rc e has b een en tirely cleared a w a y o n all b u t on e ro a d . N everth eless, e v e r y roa d n o w is h a n d lin g its freigh t on th e license system b eca u se th e v o lu m e o f fre ig h t offered has o fte n b een b e y o n d th e p h y sica l ca p a c ity o f th e roa d s. P a rticu la rly n o te w o r th y is th e increase th is y e a r in th e m o v e m e n t o f coa l. A ll th e larger carriers o f coa l rep ort an increased m o v e m e n t o f co a l fro m th e m ines this y ea r and th ere has b een a gra d u a l w eek ly increase in th e p a st tw o m on th s in th e v o lu m e o f co a l ca rried . O n e large carrier o f a n th ra cite, fo r in sta n ce, m o v e d 5 p er cen t, m ore coa l in th e first tw o w eeks o f J u ly th a n d u rin g th e sam e p e rio d last y ea r. T w o le a d in g carriers o f b itu m in ou s re p o rt increases fo r J u n e o f this y e a r o v e r J u n e o f 1919 o f 13.6 p e r ce n t, a n d 17.8 p er cen t, re sp ectiv ely . T h ese in d ica tio n s are con firm ed b y th e statistics o f th e U n ite d S tates G e o lo g ica l S u rv ey , w h ich sh ow an increase o f 19.6 p er ce n t, in th e a m o u n t o f co a l p ro d u ce d a nd m o v e d in th e first six m on th s o f this y ea r as co m p a re d w ith th e co rre sp o n d in g p e rio d a y e a r a go. A p relim in a ry estim a te in d ica tes th a t d u rin g th e first six m on th s o f 1920 th e ra ilroad s o f th e co u n tr y m o v e d m ore freig h t o f all k in d s th a n in th e first h a lf o f a n y p rev iou s yea r, n o t ev en ex cep tin g th e re co rd yea rs o f 1917 and 1918. A lth o u g h g rea tly h a n d i ca p p e d in M a y and p a rt o f J u n e b y th e freig h t c o n ge stion resu ltin g fro m th e strik e co n d itio n s o f A p ril, th ere has been on p ra ctica lly all roa d s a ste a d y increase th rou g h th e p a s t tw o m on th s in th e to ta l ca r m o v e m e n t. T h e N e w Y o r k C en tral R a ilr o a d , 11 fo r in sta n ce, rep orts a d a ily a vera ge ca r m o v e m e n t , b o t h lo a d e d a n d e m p ty , o f 96,216 cars fo r th e first 10 d a y s o f J u ly , an in crea se o f 1,205 cars o v e r th e a v era ge fo r th e sam e p e rio d last yea r. L o a d e d cars are 67.3 p er ce n t, o f th e to ta l m o v e m e n t as co m p a re d w ith 65.7 p e r ce n t, a y e a r a go. A n o th e r large ra ilroad re p o rts an increase o f 8 p er ce n t, in th e lo a d e d ca r m o v e m e n t fo r th e first tw o w eeks o f J u ly o v e r th e sam e p e r io d last yea r, a n d o f 5 .7 p er ce n t, o v e r th e la st tw o w eeks in Ju n e o f th is y ea r. F igu res a v a ila b le b a se d o n th e rep orts m a d e t o th e C o m m ission o n C a r S e rvice b y th e in d iv id u a l roa d s sh ow th a t th e to ta l n u m b e r o f cars o f rev en u e fre ig h t lo a d e d in th e first fo u r w eeks o f J u n e o f this y e a r w ere 5.2 p er ce n t, g rea ter th a n in th e sam e p e rio d last yea r. T h e la b o r situ a tion appears n e v e r t o h a v e retu rn ed to n orm a l fo llo w in g th e strik e in A p ril, a n d a lth o u g h m o s t o f th e ro a d s n o w h a v e recru ited th eir fo rce s to a b o u t th e sam e n u m erica l lev e l as b e fo r e th e strike th e y still feel th e n eed o f the vetera n w ork ers. T h e re c e n tly a n n o u n ce d increases in w ages m a y b rin g som e o f th e m o re e xp erien ced m en b a c k , a lth o u g h th eir return is a m a tte r o f con sid e ra b le u n ce rta in ty . C rop C o n d i t io n s A s a resu lt o f ra th er u n ev en d istrib u tio n o f rain in N e w Y o r k S ta te last m o n th th e c o n d itio n o f th e field cro p s is n o t u n ifo rm th ro u g h o u t th e state b u t o n th e w h ole field cro p s, w ith th e e x ce p tio n o f h a y , are in a vera ge co n d itio n o r b e tte r fo r this tim e o f yea r. W in te r w h ea t, p o ta to e s , bean s a n d on ion s are 3 p er ce n t, b e tte r th a n usual, w hile co rn , oa ts, sprin g w h ea t, b a rle y , ry e, a lfalfa , m illet, peas a n d t o b a c c o are ea ch w ith in 1 p er ce n t, o f th eir avera ge co n d itio n a t this tim e in th e p a s t ten years. P re se n t in d ica tio n s o f th e a vera ge y ie ld p e r acre fo r all cro p s in N e w Y o r k S ta te are a b o u t 1.3 p er ce n t, b e lo w th e a vera ge, a d eclin e o f 1 p er ce n t, in th e p a st m o n th . T h is is p a r tly a resu lt o f la b o r sh ortage. W h ile th e a p p le c r o p in N e w Y o r k is n o t e x ce p tio n a lly h e a v y th is y e a r, th e u n u su a lly ev e n d istri b u tio n th ro u g h o u t th e sta te th is y e a r will resu lt, it is n o w estim a ted , in a y ie ld o f 6,73 7,00 0 b arrels, w h ich is an increase o f 125 p e r ce n t, o v e r th e 1919 cro p a n d 29 p e r ce n t, o v e r th e c r o p in 1918. T h e co m m e r cial p e a ch cr o p is estim a ted a t tw ice th a t o f last y e a r, b u t less th an h a lf th e p r o d u c tio n o f th e re co rd y e a r, 1917, m a in ly b e ca u se o f a 33 p er ce n t, a crea ge re d u ctio n sin ce th en . T h e a verage co n d itio n o f grap es in th e state is o n ly 76 p er ce n t., as co m p a re d w ith 93 last y e a r, w h ile p lu m s are re p o rte d a t 83 p er cen t, o f avera ge, q u in ces at 80, and cherries a t 67. REPORT ON BUSINESS CONDITIONS 12 In th e n orth ern cou n ties o f N e w J ersey th e c o n d itio n o f crop s is p ra ctica lly co m p a ra b le t o th e a v e r age fo r N e w Y o r k S ta te. T h e rains o f th e p a st th ree w eeks h a v e b ro u g h t g o o d progress in th e field cro p s, w h ile th e c u ltiv a te d crop s and fru its are m a tu rin g u n d er fa v o r a b le co n d itio n s fo r th e m o s t p a rt, a lth ou g h also h in d ered b y la b o r sh ortage. I m m ig r a t io n O n ly ship c a p a c ity appears to lim it th e n u m b er o f n ew arrivals a t this p o rt. R e p o r ts fo r ea ch m o n th since F e b ru a ry h a v e sh ow n su ccessive increases, a n d p relim in ary estim ates fo r J u ly in d ica te th a t th e flow o f im m ig ra tio n is b e in g fu lly sustain ed. T h is is th e season, h ow ev er, b o th w h en im m ig ra tion a n d em igra tion are n o rm a lly h e a v y . W o m e n a n d ch ild ren , as in p re v io u s m on th s, m a k e u p a large p r o p o r tio n o f th e im m igra n ts. T h e sou rce o f im m ig ra tio n is th e w h ole o f C on tin en ta l E u ro p e , save fo r th e C en tra l E m p ires and m o s t o f R u ssia , a n d fro m th e B ritish Isles a n d S ou th A m erica . A recen t increase in steerage rates has h a d a p p a ren tly n o e ffe ct o n th e n u m b er o f im m ig ra n ts. A p p ro x im a te revised figures o f alien arrivals a n d departu res a t this p o r t fr o m J a n u a ry 1 to J un e 30, 1920, are as fo llo w s : January February March April May June Total E m p lo y m e n t Arrivals Departures 25,051 24,529 22,086 24,379 29,098 18,714 36,958 26,169 40,048 21,162 37,584 49,715 202,956 152,537 T h e re w as a d is tin ct th o u g h n o t large d ecrease in e m p lo y m e n t in th e S e co n d F ed era l R e se r v e D is tr ic t d u rin g th e p a st m o n th . T h e closin g o f several m ills o f a large w oolen c o m p a n y th rew a n u m b e r o u t o f e m p lo y m e n t a n d th e dullness in te x tile and leath er indu stries resu lted in o th er fa cto rie s re d u cin g th eir w ork in g forces. U n e m p lo y m e n t in th e clo th in g trades is still m u ch greater th a n is usual a t th is season o f th e y e a r a n d th e h o p e o f a settlem en t o f th e strik e o f fu r w orkers in N e w Y o r k C ity has n o t b een realized. T h e sh oe in d u s try sh ow ed an increase o f e m p lo y m e n t d u rin g J u n e, b u t this w as d u e t o th e se ttlem en t o f a strike a t R o ch e s te r. T h e P e n n sy lv a n ia R a ilr o a d ’ s a n n o u n ce m e n t on J u ly 19 th a t it w o u ld la y o ff a b o u t 12,000 o f its em p lo y e s in th e eastern reg ion w ill a p p ly to several th ou sa n d in this d istrict. A strike o f 1,000 lon g sh orem en en ga ged in th e deep -sea tra d e lasted o n ly on e d a y , b u t th e strike o f lon g sh orem en a n d ligh term en in th e coa stw ise tra d e con tin u es. T h e re h a v e b e e n severa l m in o r la b o r d istu rb an ces, b u t gen erally co n d itio n s are m o re stab le th a n th e y w ere several m o n th s a go. T h e re are fre q u e n t rep orts th a t la b o r is m o re efficien t, th a t th e increase in u n e m p lo y m e n t has m a d e som e th in k greater efforts w ere n ecessary t o h o ld th eir jo b s . T h e re is a surplus o f u n tra in ed m a le office h elp , d u e in p a r t t o th e n u m b e r o f stu d en ts seekin g e m p lo y m e n t d u rin g v a ca tio n . B u t th ere are still lo ca l sh ortages o f u n sk illed h an d s, ca u sed t o som e e x te n t b y th e s ca rcity o f im m ig ra n t la b o r, a n d o p p o r tu n ity fo r e m p lo y m e n t fo r 4 ,00 0 o r m o re is re p o rte d in th e S yracu se d istrict. In spite o f th e p re v a ilin g co n d itio n s th e a vera ge w ee k ly earnings d u rin g Ju n e o f fa c to r y w orkers in this S ta te in creased. T h e J u n e a vera ge, as re p o rte d t o th e N e w Y o r k S ta te In d u stria l C o m m issio n , w as $28.77, an increase o f 32 cen ts o v e r M a y . D u r in g th e p a st y e a r th e a vera ge in crea se w as 28 p e r ce n t., w hile in th e six years fr o m Ju n e, 1914, t o Ju n e, 1920, th e a vera ge increase w as 127 p er ce n t. F e w large ch a n ges in w e e k ly earn in gs o ccu rre d fr o m M a y to Jun e this yea r. T h e largest ga in was $3.27 in th e c o t to n g o o d s in d u s try , d u e t o a general increase o f 15 p er ce n t, in w a ge rates, a n d earnings in th e iron a n d steel in d u stry re a ch e d th e re co rd a vera ge o f $43.12. T h e re w as a d ecrease o f $3.15 in th e earnings o f fu r w orkers a n d sligh t decreases in oth e r indu stries w h ere in crea sed a c tiv ity resu lted in th e h irin g o f a n u m b e r o f lo w e r p a id w orkers.
@FedFRASER