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MONTHLY o f C r e d it a n d S e c o n d Federal Reserve Agent B u s in e s s F e d e r a l prepared each month b y the statistical services of the Fed eral Reserve B o ard and the F e d e ral Reserve Banks, w ill deal w ith the latest available facts regardin g pro duction, prices, trade, and bank credit. The figures fo r banking will be those of the current month, but the other figures w ill relate to the preceding month. The index of production includes these 2 2 series: Pig iron Steel ingots Cotton (consumption) Wool (consumption) Wheat flour Sugar meltings Hogs slaughtered Cattle slaughtered Calves slaughtered Sheep slaughtered Lumber Bituminous coal Anthracite coal Copper Zinc Leather Newsprint Cement Petroleum Cigars Cigarettes Manufactured tobacco I n combining these series in a single index the differ ent items have been w eighted in accordance with .their D is t r ic t January 1, 1923 relative importance. Allow ance has been made fo r seasonal variation, so that the index does not reflect changes due to seasonal causes. The combined produc tion index compares current output with the production in 19 19 . The wholesale price index is prepared b y the B u reau of L a b o r Statistics, and uses 1 9 1 3 as a base. S u m m a r y o f B u s i n e s s C o n d i t i o n s in t h e 1601---- The volume of production and employment continued P roduction C o n tra ry to the usual trend at this season of the year, production in basic industries in Novem ber continued to increase. Since J u l y , 1 9 2 1 , when production was lower than at an y time in recent years, there has been an almost uninterrupted rise month b y illustrated in the chart, in which made fo r seasonal changes, shows basic industries d u rin g Novem ber month. The index, allowance has been that production in w as 5 2 per cent. eiLUONS or dollars 3 2 r----- A k U . S. upw ard in November, and prices registered a fu rth er advance. iBILUONS OFDOLLARS PERCENT \ R e s e r v e C o n d itio n s Federal Reserve Bank, New York E G I N N I N G with this issue of the R ev iew a national sum m ary of business and credit condi tions is published. This sum m ary, which is to be B REVIEW 1910 AVERAGE / fiO 40 1919 1920 1921 1922 1919 1923 Index of Production in Basic Industries— Combination of 22 Individual Series Corrected for Seasonal Variation (1919 aver age = 100 per cent.) Prices — Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1913 aver age = 100 per cent.) 1920 1921 1322 1923 Volume of Payments by Check — Checks drawn on banks in 140 centers (New York not included) Bank Credit— 800 Member Banks in Leading Cities 2 MONTHLY RE V IE W , JANUARY 1, 1923 B a n k C redit higher than in J u ly , 1 9 2 1 , and 7 per cent, higher than in October, 19 2 2 . The chief advances from October to D u rin g the period between Novem ber 2 2 and Decem Novem ber were in mill consumption of cotton which ber 20 F ed eral Reserve B an ks have been called upon to reached a m onthly total exceeded only once since 1 9 1 7 , su p p ly the extra curren cy needs of holiday trade, and this demand is reflected in an increase of $157,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 in Fe d e ral Reserve note circulation, b rin gin g the total to and in the production of p ig iron, w hich w as larger than at a n y time in the past two years. B u ild in g operations were m aintained on a large scale despite the approach the highest point fo r the year. of w inter. in gold reserves was also larg e ly due to increased use of F in a l estimates for the y e a r place the yields of all gold fo r curren cy purposes. A decline of $43,000,000 The total earning assets p rin cip al crops ahead of 1 9 2 1 , except that of corn which w as un u su ally large in 1 9 2 1 . A s a result of these larger yields, and of higher prices as well, the total farm value ren cy and p a rtly in consequence of h eavy Governm ent of crops grown in 19 2 2 , based on prices received at the operations on December 1 5 . farm as of Decem ber 1 , is estimated to be 2 5 per cent, larger than in 1 9 2 1 , but 1 7 per cent, less than in 19 20 . Increased production w as accompanied b y continued h eavy freigh t movement. The total number of railroad cars loaded du ring Novem ber w as substantially larger than in the corresponding month of previous years, although 5 per cent, less than in October. The decline in the demand fo r cars and a fu rth er decrease in the proportion of cars out o f re p air have resulted in a considerable reduction in the freigh t car shortage. D em and fo r labor continued to increase, as shown b y the volume of employment at industrial establishments. L o cal shortages of labor were reported b y steel mills, textile mills, and building contractors in eastern dis tricts, but some surplus of common labor w as reported from agricu ltu ral districts. W h o l e sa l e P rices of the F ed eral Reserve B an ks rose du ring the period $145,000,000, p a rtly in response to the demand fo r c u r In the fou r weeks p rio r to Decem ber 1 3 the loans and investments of member banks in leading cities were little changed, though in the latter p a rt of the period a re newed demand w as m anifested fo r commercial loans, offset to some extent b y a decline in investments. Banking Conditions In this district financial developments du ring the month centered around the operations in the G overn ment debt on Decem ber 1 5 . The chief of these was the redemption of the called series of V ic to ry notes, o f which about $250,000,000, it w as estimated, would be presented fo r redemption in this district. B oth here and elsewhere, however, the volum e of V ic to ry notes presented on Decem ber 1 5 was relatively light, and up to Decem ber 2 7 somewhat less than $125,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 had been received b y the N e w Y o rk R eserve Bank. .Wholesale prices advanced du ring Novem ber and reached the highest level since M arch, 1 9 2 1 . The rise of two points in the B u reau of La b o r Statistics index to 1 5 6 w as due chiefly to advances in the prices of farm products, foods, and clothing, w hich rose to the highest points of the year. These advances more than offset declines in the prices of fuels and metals. The delay in presentation was owing largely to the v e ry w ide distribution of V ic to ry notes at the time of their sale in M ay, 1 9 1 9 . Previous action on the p a rt of the T re a su ry had resulted in the earlier retirem ent o f large blocks of V ic to ry notes held b y banks and other financial institutions, corporations, and large investors, and the amount rem aining outstanding on Decem ber 1 5 is believed largely to represent notes held b y in d ividuals V olum e of T rade in com paratively small amounts. Though interest has ceased, these w id ely scattered individual holdings of W holesale trade in lines reported to F e d e ral Reserve B an k s was substantially larger du ring Novem ber than for the corresponding month last year. Sales of depart called notes are being presented fo r redem ption v e r y slow ly. I n consequence, the amount of m oney in this district ment stores and m ail-order houses du ring Novem ber available fo r reinvestm ent on Decem ber 1 5 were also la rg e r than a yea r ago, and reports of C h rist $125,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 to $175,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 less th an w as anticipated. was from mas trade thus f a r received indicate sales larger than in On previous q u a rterly ta x dates disbursements made b y either 19 2 0 or 1 9 2 1 . Th e volume of paym ents b y check the Governm ent in this district have ordinarily m uch w as 7 per cent, sm aller in Novem ber than in October, exceeded, fo r a fe w d ays at least, the amounts available due p a rtly to the sm aller num ber of business days, but from collected ta x checks, and ease in the money m arkets was 10 per cent, larger than in November, 1 9 2 1 . has o rdin arily resulted. On Decem ber 1 5 the excess o f 3 F E D E R A L R E SE R V E AGENT A T NEW Y O R K Governm ent disbursements over collections w as sm aller than usual, and this excess w as larg e ly employed b y the banks in p a yin g a h eavy w ith d raw al of Governm ent deposits called on December 1 5 . Thus, con trary to recent experience, the qu arterly ta x d a y and a period there Stock E xch a n ge call m oney rates fo r new loans ranged irre g u la rly between 3% and 5 y2 per cent., and renewals w ere 4 to 5 per cent. Tim e money w as quiet, w ith a tendency tow ard easier conditions. a fte r were attended b y stiffer rath er than easier condi tions in the money markets. W h ile the new T re a su ry issues dated Decem ber 1 5 were oversubscribed, the oversubscriptions were sm aller than usual. The offerings included $300,000,000 or thereabouts of 2 % -y e a r T re a su ry notes bearing 4y2 per cent, interest, and $400,000,000 or thereabouts of Treas u r y certificates in two series, one m aturing in 3 months bearing 3 % per cent, interest, and the other m aturing in one yea r bearing 4 per cent, interest. Total allotments amounted to $ 78 0 ,16 4 ,10 0 , of which $34 8 ,9 9 3,7 0 0 w as in this district. in full. Subscriptions fo r certificates w ere allotted Cash subscriptions fo r notes were scaled, w ith preference to the sm aller subscriptions, but exchanges Commercial Paper Outstanding— Twenty-Seven Dealers of V ic to ry notes and certificates fo r the new offerings w ere accepted in full. S e c u r ity M a r k e ts There w as little change from a month ago either in the volume of loans b y this bank to its members or in the loans of member banks to their customers, except The security m arkets w ere firm er in December, recov ering p a rtly from the severe declines o f previous weeks. that member bank commercial loans have recently tended Ind u strial stocks moved up w ard , and approached the again to rise, continuing a tendency noted in the early y e a r end w ith tra d in g in moderate volume and prices steady about h a lf w a y between the October high point fall, but thereafter interrupted. and the low point reached in the latter p a rt of Novem ber. R ailroad stocks, however, showed little recovery and remained near Novem ber low prices. M o n ey M ark et The commercial money markets w ere only m oderately active, w ith little change in the p revailin g level of in The stronger dem and fo r bonds w as m anifested both b y gen erally firm er prices and large r offerings of new terest rates. In so fa r, however, as a n y tendencies were apparent they were tbw ards easier conditions rather than the reverse. There continued to be no great demand from borrowers, and as is custom ary at this sea securities. Corporation bond price averages recovered about h a lf a point com pared w ith Novem ber low levels, and there were substantial gains in U nited States G ov ernment securities and prim e State and m unicipal issues. T re a su ry 4 14 s again touched par. F o re ig n issues were son, lenders were not inclined to invest extensively until a fter the completion o f the year-end financial benefited both b y the general strength of the m arket and b y recovery in exchange rates. transactions. N ew offerings, which reached fa ir ly large proportions E x c e p t fo r some scarcity o f short bills, su p p ly and de fo r the first time since October, w ere reported well taken, m and in both the bill and commercial p ap er markets although sales w ere not so ra p id as in m an y other months were moderate and about evenly balan ced ; 4 per cent, of the year. continued to be the p re vailin g rate fo r bills and 4 % per issues of good size, and an un u su ally large proportion cent, fo r commercial paper. of industrial and stock flotations. Evid e n ce o f an easier ten Th e offerings included several in d ividual F o reig n offerings d u r d ency in commercial p ap er occurred in the reappearance ing the first three weeks of the month totaled $28,000,- of sales of high grade p aper to banks outside this city at 000, brin gin g the total since the first o f the y e a r to 4y2 per cent. $886,000,000, com pared The outstanding paper, however, of the 2 7 w ith $695,000,000 last year. dealers who report m onthly to this bank showed a fu r A m o n g prospective foreign issues fo r ea rly in 1 9 2 3 is ther decline from $757,000,000 to $734,000,000 at the end o f November. the long pending $50,000,000 C uban loan, bids fo r which have been called for b y the Cuban Governm ent. 4 M ONTHLY R E V I E W . J A N U A R Y 1, 1923 Foreign Exchange G o ld S h ip m e n ts N ovem ber im ports of gold were $18 ,30 8,0 0 0 and ex ports $ 3,4 31,0 0 0 , leaving an excess of im ports of $ 14 ,8 7 7 ,0 0 0 for the month. F o r the eleven months period ended November 30 the excess of imports has been $214-,565,000? as com pared w ith excess im ports of t$638,436,000,/ du rin g the corresponding period last year. F ro m J a n u a r y 1, 19 20 , to date the excess o f im ports has been about $950,000,000. W o rld a n d D o m e s tic P ric e s The tendency of wholesale prices du rin g N ovem ber in most p arts of the w orld w as tow ard somewhat higher levels. The advances were caused larg e ly b y increases in the prices of foods and textiles. B ritish prices were higher fo r the last two months a fte r a continuous decline for several months. L o w er prices in Sweden, Ita ly , and Ja p a n were accompanied b y higher exchange rates in those countries. The follow ing diagram shows the fluctuations in whole sale prices in fou r leading countries du rin g the past fo u r years. The up w ard movement of prices in the U nited States du ring N ovem ber as shown b y the B u re au of L a b o r Statistics index num ber w as the result of a substantial advance in prices of farm products and more moderate increases in all other commodity groups w ith the excep tion of fuel and metals. F u e l prices, a fte r the advance du ring the summer on account of the coal strike, have dropped back to the level p reva ilin g p rior to the strike. The average advance in all prices from the low point in Ja n u a r y 1 9 2 2 has been 1 3 per cent., and the changes in different groups range from an increase of 3 .5 per cent, in house furn ish in g goods to more than 2 5 per cent, in farm products. P rices o f both farm products and foods \ FRANCE V A \ J \ j ! / «/ ENGLAND \ / \ _ / / ENGLAND \ • *-r \\ . X Stren gth in sterling exchange constituted the most strikin g movement in a n y of the financial markets d u r ing December. C a rry in g fo rw ard an advance which began to be rap id about the middle of November, sterling demand d rafts rose 1 7 cents in the first two weeks of Decem ber to nearly $4.69, less than 4 per cent, below p a r and the highest quotation since the sprin g of 1 9 19 . There was later a reaction to around $4.6 5. A sid e from speculative factors, possible immediate influences m aking for strength in sterling included the completion b y November 1 5 of the $100,000,000 interest paym ent on the B ritish Governm ent debt to the U nited States, and a seasonal decline in offerings o f commodity bills. A more fundam ental explanation, however, of the m ajor u p w ard trend of sterling lies in recent tendencies in commodity prices in E n g la n d and in the United States. The accom panying two diagram s, which com pare movements of exchange rates and prices in the leading Eu ro p ean countries, show that persistent strength in sterling du ring the past yea r has accom panied a dow nw ard tendency in B ritish prices as com pared w ith an u p w ard movement in this country. This recovery in the purchasing power of B ritish money as com pared w ith the dollar is reflected in exchange rates. P rice indices used are those of the F e d eral Reserve B o ard so constructed as to make possible international comparisons. Continental exchanges w ere generally firm er in Decem ber p a rtic u la rly in the cases of those countries not directly involved in the reparations problem. Fren ch , B elgian , and Germ an rates strengthened around the middle of the month follow ing reports that the U nited States m ight take a more active interest in the Eu ro p ean situation. Ita lia n rates continued the grad u al advance begun ea rly in November in response to the more settled aspect of Italian political conditions. A reaction of C an adian exchange to sligh tly below p a r a fter the first week o f the month le ft Sw edish kronor the only foreign cu rren cy to be quoted at a prem ium in term s of the dollar. Jap an ese, Sw iss, and D u tch exchanges, however, show only slight discounts. A rgen tin e exchange continued to grow firm er in Decem ber and reached a new high point for the year. v _ .-— f ^ '• — 3---------- \ Vr \ t' < i 1919 192.0 ITALY 192.2. 192£ Depreciation of Foreign Exchange Rates from Par Value "---|( \b 163 4 >913AVIRASE. 1919 192.1 ^ UNJTED \ STATES \ V / \ v ...X , \ < GERMANY i ^ --- fn ''V . FRANCE 192*0 \9Z\ 19ZZ 19Z3 Wholesale Prices in Four Countries (1913 Average = 100 per cent.) Federal Reserve Board International Indices FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT N EW 5 YORK average advance fo r all commodities since 1 9 1 3 has been 56 per cent. tow ard the close of the month ow ing to lack of an imme diate market in certain localities. A n th racite m ining was p ra ctica lly at the estimated normal rate. In the first three weeks o f Decem ber the index of prices of tw en ty basic commodities m aintained b y this bank Steel ingot production continued at the high rate m aintained du ring the month previous although new showed little change as compared w ith Novem ber figures. Several commodities made substantial advances. W h eat (No. 2 red) at $ 1 . 3 5 a bushel w as the highest since last M ay. Corn, copper, lead, rubber, tobacco, sugar, and business was received at a somewhat slower rate than recently. P ig iron production, however, increased from a d aily average of 85,000 tons in October to about 95,000 tons in Novem ber and the su p p ly of fo u n d ry iron was steers touched new high levels fo r the yea r du ring the fu rth er increased b y im ports o f B ritish and Continental month. The advances were offset b y low er prices of p ig iron and lumber. iron. F o r the first time in ten years Germ an iron was im ported into this country. Other industries showed, in general, increased activity. The follow ing table shows production for the past six are now 4 3 per cent, above the p re-w ar base, whereas the The cost of livin g as estimated b y the N ational In dus trial Conference B o ard, advanced 0.8 per cent, in N o vember because of higher prices of food, clothing, and months, expressed as percentages of estimated normal production. In estim ating normal, allowance has been made fo r y e a r to y ear growth, and seasonal variations. shelter. Commodity Stocks on Hand (E stim a te d n o rm a l production = 100 per cent.) Increases in industrial activity and the movement of goods to consumption have resulted in the past few months in the grad ual reduction o f the stocks o f various basic commodities fo r which figures are available. Anthracite coal...................... Bituminous coal..................... The high level of sugar m eltings du rin g the greater p a rt of the ye a r has reduced stocks of ra w su gar not only in this Copper, U. S. mine................ Tin deliveries.......................... country but in Cuba as well. Total stocks in the U nited Portland cement..................... States and Cuban ports combined amounted to but 15 0 ,000 tons at the end of Novem ber in contrast with a stock of 1,100,00 0 tons’ at the same date in 1 9 2 1 . The visible su p p ly of coffee in Novem ber w as reduced to 838,000 sacks, a new low point. L o w stocks of cement reflect Meat slaughtered................... Sugar meltings, U. S. ports.. Cotton consumption.............. h eavy building operations. The follow ing table shows stocks on hand expressed as percentages of estimated normal, taking into considera tion y ea r to ye a r grow th and the usual seasonal fluctua tions. __________________ (E stim a te d n o tm a l stocks = 100 per cent.)__________________ Commodity Sugar, raw cane, Atlan. ports. Coffee, visible supply in U . S.* Flour,in chief centers........... Cotton.................................... Portland cement.................... Wood pulp*........................... Paper, total*.......................... Tin, world visible supply...... 1922 July 1 Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 63 60 103 85 93 141 144 171 88 62 136 . 86 79 137 138 147 * — Seasonal va ria tio n n o t allowed fo r. 79 50 132 93 62 120 130 167 65 52 120 111 60 102 122 148 Nov. 1 Dec. 1 41 46 107 99 53 78 118 165 29 53 91 88 64p i62 p— P re lim in a ry. Production M an u factu rin g and m ining operations continued un u su ally h eavy throughout November and m an y basic in dustries which ordinarily show seasonal reductions re ported even larger output than in October. Bitum inous coal m ining increased to a rate about 80 per cent, of estimated normal. Production w as sufficient to meet immediate needs and to increase reserves slightly. There was even some curtailm ent in operations reported Tobacco consumption............ Paper (total)*........................ Wool consumption*e.............. June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 1.0 43 79 82 75 90 53 110 120 104 112 135 92 110 97 100 101 116 1.4 32 82 79 77r 75 60 110 128 142 99 131 84 105 90 93 109 103 1.9 46 61 70 86r 77 59 112 121 117 109 144 97 105 103 107 103 126 61 72 68 74 80r 92 62 111 123 112 105 110 92 102 99 105 104 121 95r 75 83 85 84r 103 75 112v 126 109 97r 108 95 92 88 109 105 131 * — Seasonal v a ria tio n n o t allowed fo r. p— P re lim ina ry. e— Estim ated, Nov. 99p 81p 92 88 87 p 110 75 123p 127 102 i47 * 106 r — Revised, Employment and Wages Increases in the num ber o f employes in November w ere reported to the U nited States D epartm ent of Lab o r b y 3 1 of 4 3 industries from which data were obtained. The Novem ber gain in employment w as the largest since Ja n u a r y and w as general throughout the country. In N ew Y o rk State an increase o f 2 p e r cent, in the num ber of facto ry workers w as reported b y the State D epartm ent of Labor. E x c e p t fo r clothing and food products where seasonal declines occurred, increased em ploym ent w as reported fo r p ra ctica lly eve ry im portant industry. Industries dealing in products used in building con struction such as electrical supplies, bricks, structural steel, and wood w ork showed general increases in the number o f workers although Novem ber is usu ally a month of reduced a ctivity. I n N ew Y o rk C ity , em ployment agencies reported a large r number of vacancies p a rticu la rly fo r office workers. The Association fo r Im p rovin g the Condition of the P oo r recorded 1 7 p e r cent, few er cases receiving help than a y e a r ago. A v e ra g e w eekly earnings of facto ry workers in N ew Y o rk State increased 1.6 p er cent, du rin g November. The latest reported earnings are n early 7 p er cent. M ONTHLY R E V I E W , J A N U A R Y 1, 1 9 2 3 higher than in Novem ber 1 9 2 1 . L a rg est advances in basic w age rates were reported in the metal and ma chinery industries. Freight Traffic F o r the six weeks period ended December 9 car load ings were 2 4 per cent, above the same period last y ea r and 7 per cent, above the corresponding period in 19 20 . U su a lly the fre igh t movement declines ra p id ly a fte r the middle of October but in recent weeks shipments of each im portant commodity group have continued in h eavy volume. The follow ing diagram , com paring car loadings b y weeks this y e a r and d u rin g the business a ctiv ity of 19 20 , shows how the recent h eavy movement has tended to compensate fo r the period of slack traffic caused b y the coal strike. Total car loadings in eleven months of 19 2 2 w ere 1 1 per cent, la rg e r than in the first eleven months of 1 9 2 1 and about 6 p er cent, less than the corresponding period of 19 20 . THOUSANDS OF CARS Weekly Car Loadings of Revenue Freight on the Railroads of the United States Despite h eavy traffic the d aily fre igh t car shortage was reduced from 178 ,0 0 0 cars in the first week of Novem ber to about 112 ,0 0 0 cars in the first week of D e cember. This reduction w as accomplished in p a rt b y rep airs of bad order cars and in p a rt b y more efficient movement of freigh t trains, as w ell as b y some seasonal reduction in the demand. Th e num ber of bad order cars on Decem ber 1 w as about 1 0 per cent, o f the total num ber in service as com pared w ith 1 5 per cent, in m id summer. Foreign Trade E x p o r ts du rin g Novem ber, valued at $383,000,000, exceeded those of October b y $12,0 00,0 00 and were the largest since M arch 1 9 2 1 . The increase over November 1 9 2 1 amounted to 3 0 p er cent. B ecause of changes in classifications and rates, tabulation of the im port figures has been delayed. A large proportion of the exports d u rin g the month w as farm products. Shipm ents of cotton am ounting to 858,000 bales were the largest of a n y month in more than a year. Th e dem and fo r grain, meats, and d a iry products rem ained about constant. F o reig n orders fo r m anufac tured cotton goods w ere somewhat larger. W h ile there w as little change in conditions in the F a r E a s t and the Levan t, South A m erican buyers ordered more freely. E x p o rts of iron and steel in October, the last month for which there are detailed figures, amounted to 133 ,0 0 0 gross tons, valued at $14 ,6 2 5 ,0 0 0 , and were sligh tly larger than in Septem ber but sm aller than in other months this year. D u rin g the past y ea r there has been a strikin g sim ilar ity in the value of exports from the U n ited States and from G reat B ritain . The follow ing table shows the figures w ith the En glish pound converted into dollars at the rate of exchange prevailin g d u rin g each month. M o n th U n ite d States J a n u a ry .................................. F e b ru a ry ................................ M a rc h .................................... A p r il....................................... M a y ........................................ June........................................ J u ly ........................................ A u g u s t.................................... Septem ber............................. O ctob e r.................................. N ovem ber............................. $279,000,000 251.000.000 330.000.000 318.000.000 308.000.000 335.000.000 301.000.000 302.000.000 313.000.000 371.000.000 383.000.000 $302,000,000 298.000.000 327.000.000 285.000.000 298.000.000 271.000.000 305.000.000 301.000.000 305.000.000 305.000.000 339.000.000 T o ta l, 11 m o n th s ............ $3,491,000,000 $3,336,000,000 G re a t B r ita in The rise in the dollar value of exports from this coun t r y in the later months of the y e a r m ay be p a rtly accounted fo r b y increases in the prices of farm prod ucts. In 1 9 1 3 , the last y e a r before the E u ro p ean W a r, B ritish exports averaged about $10,000,000 a month larger than those from the U nited States. A v ailab le data show that Novem ber im ports o f coffee amounted to 993,000 bags, as com pared w ith 621,000 bags in October, and were the largest since Decem ber 19 2 1. Im ports of silk declined from 47,000 bales in October to 37,000 bales in November, but were n early twice as large as one y e a r ago. N ovem ber im ports of rubber were 23,000 long tons, about the same as in October, and n e a rly 20 p er cent, above the figures fo r Novem ber 1 9 2 1 . Wholesale Trade The volume of wholesale business norm ally declines in November and Decem ber because at this time of the ye a r retailers have satisfied a large p a rt of their fa ll and holiday requirements. Novem ber sales b y representative dealers in this district, while sm aller than those of October, were 1 4 per cent, above those of Novem ber last ye a r and 1 2 p er cent, above those o f Novem ber 19 20 . These are sligh tly larger increases than were shown b y last m onth’s figures. I n the case of groceries somewhat higher prices have been an influence tow ard a larger dollar amount o f sales, but fo r most o f the other com modities price changes since last y e a r have probably had little influence on the figures. C loth in g sales have been somewhat irreg u la r fo r several m onths; the imme diate demand fo r m en ’s clothing on the p a rt of retailers a p p are n tly w as satisfied tem p orarily in Septem ber and October but stores placed large reorders for wom en’s apparel d u rin g November. C lothin g and drugs are the only lines in which the 19 2 2 figures are la rg e r than those fo r the same month in a n y of the three preceding years fo r which there are figures. Detailed figures fo r Novem ber sales are shown in the follow ing table in percentages. FEDERAL RESERVE N ovember Net Saies Commodity 1919 1920 1921 1922 Machine Tools......... Diamonds................. Jewelry..................... Hardware................. Groceries................... Drugs........................ Dry Goods............... Clothing................... (A) Men’s............. (B) Women’s ........ Stationery................ Shoes........................ 850 312 548 85 151 136 128 90 81 288 164 137 Weighted Average 134 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 210 139 147 104 127 104 94 142 126 148 68 57 107 143 68 102 122 117 114 109 106 93 154 106 94 AGENT AT NEW 7 YORK than in 19 20 . W hen allowance is made fo r changes in prices it is apparent that more goods were sold in 1 9 2 2 than in an y previous year. F in a l reports show that Novem ber sales increased 8 per cent, as compared w ith N ovem ber 1 9 2 1 . A gain in sales b y mail order houses, am ounting to 3 5 p er cent., reveals the larger distribution o f m erchandise among the ru ral population as a result of higher prices fo r agricultu ral products. Detailed figures fo r Novem ber are shown in the fol low ing table. 114 N ovember Net Sales Department Store Trade 1919 1920 1921 1922 1919 1920 1921 1922 Reports covering sales during the first two weeks of December, received from the leading departm ent and apparel stores in this district, show that there has been an increase of 8 per cent, in sales, as compared with the corresponding period last year. The gain as compared w ith December 1 9 1 9 and Decem ber 19 2 0 has been more than 10 per cent. L a rg e r sales were general in all sections of the district, although the increases b y stores situated in the m etropolitan area have been relatively larger than the gains recorded b y stores in u p -State centers. This large holiday business has been distributed v e ry generally among the various departm ents of the big stores. The demand fo r furn iture, especially the smaller pieces, china, lamps, ru gs and draperies w as especially good. H e a v y sales o f fu rs, costly silks, m usical instru ments, and other of the so-called lu x u ry articles, indicate the ability of the bu yin g public to spend in a larger w a y than in December last year. The follow ing diagram compares the sales b y 64 de partm ent stores du rin g 19 2 2 w ith sales b y the same stores du rin g 1 9 2 1 . December 19 2 2 sales have been estimated on the basis o f the business done du rin g the first two weeks of the month. A large increase in sales during the latter p art of 1922 has been sufficient to offset the declines in Ja n u a r y , Fe b ru a ry, and M arch. F o r the y ea r as a whole sales were 3 per cent, larger than in 1 9 2 1 , but 2 per cent, less MILLIONS o r DOLLARS 60 / / // // // // // // / _ —— - y 50 40 30 Stock D ecember 1 All Department Stores............. New York.............................. 97 99 87 93 91 104 Bridgeport............................. 115 Elsewhere in 2nd District. . . 98 Apparel Stores........................... 94 Mail Order Houses................... 180 109 108 108 109 108 113 120 108 112 153 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 108 107 104 114 103 103 109 107 112 135 100 100 95 107 120 125 103 88 86 ** 110 109 107 115 132 142 108 101 104 *** 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 *** 101 101 97 106 98 99 103 92 105 *** The average amount o f stock carried b y the depart ment stores du ring 1 9 2 2 w as about the same as that carried the y e a r previous. D u rin g the first quarter the stock was somewhat higher, and sales smaller, but toward the latter p a rt of the y e a r the stock w as reduced and at the same time sales increased. F o r the y ea r as a whole the annual rate of stock tu rnover was the same as in the previous year, 3 .7 times, but more rapid than in 19 20 , when it was at the rate of 3.2 times a year. Chain Store Sales December sales b y the chain store systems are not yet available, but p relim in ary reports indicate that there has been a substantial gain, as compared with the holi d a y season in previous years. Novem ber sales in the aggregate show an increase of 1 4 per cent, over last y ea r as compared with an 8 per cent, increase reported in October. The largest increase is shown in sales of apparel stores which gained 2 3 per cent., because of the larger demand fo r clothing follow ing colder weather. The gain in grocery sales w as la rg e ly the result of the opening of n early 2,500 new stores du ring the past year. A v e ra g e sales per store declined about 16 per cent. C ig a r stores show the largest loss in sales per store and show only a slight increase in gross sales in spite of the open ing of nearly 500 new stores. Detailed figures are shown in the follow ing table. 19Z Z .A v jfs ^ 6 ' 20 V . / / N -------- / X o 9 1 10 J____ 1-------- -------- 1-------- 1-------- -------- 1-------- 1-------- JAN. FEB. MAR APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. Sales by 64 Department and Apparel Stores in Second Federal Reserve District Shoe....................... N ovember Sales (in percentages) Nov. 1921 Nov. 1922 1919 1920 1921 Per cent. Change in Sales per Store, Nov. 1921 1922 to Nov. 1922. 370 1,603 6,819 282 2,251 193 435 1,667 9,276 281 2,742 226 69 85 84 96 92 108 100 96 100 101 107 115 100 100 100 100 100 100 123 116 115 105 102 100 -f + — + — — 11,518 14,627 85 100 100 114 — 10.5 Number of Stores Type of Store 4.6 H .6 15.6 5.4 16.5 14.6 M ONTHLY R E V I E W , J A N U A R Y 1, 1 9 2 3 Production and Trade in 1922 R e tu rn s now av a ila b le m ake it possible to estim ate closely th e volum e o f p ro d u c tio n a n d tra d e in v a rio u s lin e s fo r 1922 as c o m p ared w ith p re v io u s y e ars. I n th e d ia g ra m on th is p a g e a p e rc e n ta g e co m p ariso n is m ad e b e tw ee n th is y e a r ’s fig u res a n d those fo r 1921 fo r 39 d iffe re n t co m m odities o r in d u strie s , b y b ro a d classifica tio n s. M ost o f th e im p o rta n t cro p s show a p ro d u c tio n con s id e ra b ly a h e a d o f th a t in 1921. T h e p rin c ip a l ex cep tio n w as th e co rn cro p w h ich show s a d ecrease, la rg e ly b ecau se 1921 p ro d u c tio n w as ex c e p tio n a lly la rg e . T he a v e ra g e p ro d u c tio n o f a ll cro p s b y volum e, w e ig h ted in a c co rd an ce w ith re la tiv e v a lu es in th e y e a rs 1910 to 1914, is 10 p e r cen t, la r g e r th a n la s t y e a r. D u e in p a r t to th e in c re a se d p ro d u c tio n a n d in p a r t to th e r a p id rise in p ric e s o f fa rm p ro d u c ts d u rin g th e y e a r th e to ta l v a lu e o f th is y e a r ’s cro p s h a s been e stim a te d b y th e D e p a rtm e n t of A g ric u ltu re on th e b a sis o f D ecem b er 1 p ric e s a t $7,600,000,000 as c o m p ared w ith $5,700,000,000 in th e y e a r 1921. N o tw ith s ta n d in g th e a d v erse effect o f th e coal a n d ra ilw a y s h o p m e n ’s strik es, th e to ta l o u tp u t o f m e tals a n d m in e ra ls w as s u b s ta n tia lly a h e a d o f 1921 b u t 14 p e r cen t, less th a n in 1920. T h e e x p an sio n in th e iro n a n d steel in d u s tr y w as p a rtic u la rly la rg e , reflectin g h e a v y b u ild in g o p e ra tio n s, a h ig h r a te o f m a n u fa c tu re in th e au to m o b ile in d u s try , a n d la rg e p u rc h a se s o f e q u ip m e n t b y ra ilro a d s. T h e p ro d u c tio n of coal w as re d u c e d b y th e s trik e below la s t y e a r ’s figures, a lth o u g h h e av y o u tp u t e a rly in th e y e a r a n d in th e la s t m o n th s o f th e y e a r d id m u c h to offset th e lig h t p ro d u c tio n o f th e su m m er. L a rg e g a in s o v er 1921 fig u res a re re c o rd e d in m an u 1921 CBOPS Apple* Rye Flaxseed Oottoa Potatoes Tobacco Barley Hay Oats Rio* Wheat Corn Average iaa* I 126 1125 I 124 ■120 ■U? ■113 lu a I IQA 1106 ■ 155 1152 Building construction.............................................................. New securities issued.............................................................. Electricity produced................................................................ Stock sales (New York Exchange)...................................... Bank checks drawn (dollars)................................................. Freight car loadings................................................................ New York State employment............................................... Postal receipts (dollars)......................................................... Wholesale trade, 2nd District (dollars).............................. Retail trade, 2nd District (dollars)..................................... U. S. exports (dollars)............................................................. 1920 1921 1922 81 93 107 133 121 115 128 100 135 105 184 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 144 120 116 112 110 109 107 107 104 103 86 T he ta b le w h ich follow s su m m a riz es cro p p ro d u c tio n a n d th e o u tp u t of m in e ra ls a n d m e tals a n d o th e r m a n u fa c tu re s fo r th e y e a rs since 1917. I n th e p r e p a ra tio n o f th e se fig u res th e d iffe re n t in d iv id u a l item s of p ro d u c tio n a n d m a n u fa c tu re h a v e b een w e ig h ted in acco rd an ce w ith re la tiv e v a lu es in th e y e a rs 1910 to 1914. Metals and Minerals.............. Manufactures........................... 1158 1157 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 103.3 100.4 107.3 100 100 100 101.1 8 4 .5 110.6 112.3 9 8 .2 103.9 9 5 .2 6 7 .1 9 4 .0 104.3 8 4 .3 111.7 104.3 100 101.5 106.2 89.1 103.1 Hi w Iiin' Im ■1119 IUS 1106 I 104 110* 101 Production in 1922 compared with production in 1921 (1921 = 100 per cent.) (1918 = 100 per cent.) aaA ifTWBRtiA Tindeliverlee lino Steel iagcts rig iron Copper Ooke Lead Gasoline Petroleum Oeaent Bitamlaoae coal Aatbraolte eoal Average miOTAoraiEs iite trookc Attoaobllee. pace. Bafcber import* Sagar refined Paper Woodpalp Wool eonsuaption ■ Oottoa I Wit slaughtered I Tobaooo consumption! Wheat flour I Silk laports ■ looonotlvee I Average I fa c tu re s. T he au to m o b ile in d u s tr y estab lish e d a n ew h ig h re c o rd of p ro d u c tio n , w ith a n e t o u tp u t o f a b o u t 2,500,000 ca rs a n d tru c k s. S u g a r m e ltin g s, w h e a t flo u r m illed , w ool a n d co tto n co n su m p tio n , m e at s la u g h te re d , p a p e r, tobacco p ro d u c ts a n d in fa c t p ra c tic a lly a ll o f th e in d u s trie s fo r w h ich w e h a v e re c o rd s o f o u t p u t, show in c re ases over 1921. In c re a se d in d u s tria l a n d tr a d e a c tiv ity is reflected in a n u m b e r o f m o re g e n e ra l in d ices su ch as fre ig h t ca r lo ad in g s, b a n k checks d ra w n , n u m b e r o f w o rk e rs em p lo y ed in fa c to rie s, a n d b u ild in g c o n tra c t a w a rd s in th e n o rth e a s te rn S tate s. T h e ch an g es in a n u m b e r o f th ese item s a re show n in th e fo llo w in g ta b le . T h e c o n stru c tio n of b u ild in g s a n d p u b lic w o rk s m e a su re d in v olum e in d e p e n d e n t of p ric e ch an g es w as 44 p e r cen t, a h e a d of a y e a r ago a n d w as la rg e r th a n in a n y p re v io u s y e a r fo r w h ich re c o rd s a re av ailab le. T h e o n ly fig u re in th e g ro u p to show a re d u c tio n b etw een 1921 a n d 1922 is e x p o rts w h ich w ere low er th a n in 1921, p a r tly as a reflectio n o f p ric e ch anges, a n d p a r tly as a re s u lt o f d is tu rb e d in te rn a tio n a l m a rk e ts. T h e ta b le m akes it cle a r th a t w h ile c ro p p ro d u c tio n a n d th e o u tp u t o f m e ta ls a n d m in e ra ls w as less th a n in 1920, th e e x tra o rd in a ry a c tiv ity in th e b u ild in g , a u to m obile, a n d a n u m b e r o f o th e r in d u s trie s w as sufficient to b rin g th e to ta l volu m e o f m a n u fa c tu re s a h e a d o f th e fig u res fo r a n y o f th e five p re v io u s y e a rs. M oreov er, if th e th re e g ro u p s a re co m bined in a sin g le in d e x o f in d u s tr ia l a c tiv ity th e h e a v y volu m e o f m a n u fa c tu re s is suffi cie n t to b rin g th e to ta l in d e x o n ly a few p e r cen t, b e h in d th e y e a rs o f g re a te s t a c tiv ity . I n th e in te rp r e ta tio n of th e se fig u res it sh o u ld be b o rn e in m in d th a t th e y a re n o t p rec ise m e asu re s o f to ta l p ro d u c tio n a n d tr a d e fo r th e c o u n try b u t sim p ly o f th o se p a rtic u la r ite m s fo r w h ich d a ta a re now av ailab le.
@FedFRASER