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(For the convenience of readers of the Review, an index of contents for 1925 has been prepared and may be received by addressing the Federal Reserve Agent, Federal Reserve Bank, New York.) MONTHLY REVIEW of Credit and Business Conditions S e c o n d Federal Reserve Agent F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Federal Reserve Bank, New York Business Conditions in the United States R O D U C TIO N and distribution of commodities were in larger volume in December than in No vember, and the volume of retail trade was larger than in any previous month. W holesale prices declined and were close to the level o f last spring, which was the low point fo r the year. P roduction The Federal Reserve B oa rd ’s index o f production in basic industries advanced 6 per cent in December to the highest level in ten months. The rise in this index has been nearly continuous since last August, when the volume of production was at the low point fo r 1925., In December the production o f iron and steel and bi tuminous coal and factory consumption o f cotton in creased considerably, and the production o f lumber, cement, and copper was maintained at relatively high levels. The volume o f factory employment and pay rolls, after increasing during the late summer and autumn months, continued practically unchanged in November and December, with increases in some im portant industries offsetting seasonal declines in others Building contracts awarded during December were the largest recorded for that month and exceeded in value those awarded in November, although a seasonal de crease in building activity usually occurs at that time o f the year. PER CENT Index o f 22 Basic Commodities, adjusted for Seasonal Variations (1919 = IOO). Latest figure, December. February 1, 1926 T rade P PER CENT D is t r ic t Sales at department stores, chain stores, and mail order houses in December indicated the largest volume o f Christmas trade on record. Trade at wholesale de clined seasonally, but continued larger than last year. Stocks at department stores showed less than the usual decline in December and were 4 per cent larger at the end o f 1925 than a year earlier. Freight car loadings continued large during December with shipments o f merchandise and miscellaneous commodities, coke and coal particularly heavy. P rices The general level o f prices, as measured by the whole sale price index o f the Bureau o f Labor Statistics, de clined by about 1 per cent in December and was at the end o f the year somewhat lower than a year earlier. The average o f wholesale prices fo r the year 1925 as a whole, however, was the highest in five years and the changes in the price level during the year were smaller than in any year in more than a decade. A m ong agri cultural commodities, the prices o f livestock and dairy products declined in December, while grain prices ad vanced. A m ong non-agricultural commodities the prin cipal declines were in the prices o f cotton goods, paper, and rubber, while somewhat higher prices were shown fo r silk, coal, and lumber. In the first three weeks of January quotations on hogs, coke, and hardwood lumber advanced, while prices o f corn, cattle, and rubber declined. PER CENT PER CENT Index o f United States Bureau o f Labor Statistics. (1913 = lOOj base adopted by B ureau). Latest figure* December, 2 M ON THLY REVIEW , FEBRUARY 1, 1926 Z 2 6 Cl/RVE 1 Index o f Sales o f 3 5 9 Stores ( 1 9 1 9 = D ecem ber. 1 0 0 ). L a te s t figures, B a n k C r e d it Changes in the demand fo r currency have been the principal factor influencing the volume o f Reserve Bank credit in use since the middle o f November. D uring the five weeks between November 18 and December 23 the Reserve Banks paid out into domestic circulation a net amount o f about $320,000,000 o f currency in the form o f gold and gold certificates, Federal Reserve notes, and other kinds o f money, and during the follow ing fou r weeks the return flow o f currency from circulation amounted to about $430,000,000. These currency m ove ments were reflected in corresponding changes in the volume of Reserve Bank discounts fo r member banks. A t member banks in leading cities total loans and investments, which had increased almost continuously during 1925, reached the highest level on record at the end o f December, but declined by about $200,000,000 during the first two weeks o f the new year. Both the increase in bank loans in the latter part o f December and the decline after the turn o f the year were largely in loans on securities, particularly at member banks in New Y ork City. These changes in the demand fo r loans at member banks were related both to the changes in customers ’ currency requirements and to end-of-year disbursements by many industrial and financial institu tions. Conditions in the money market, which had become firmer in the last half of December, were easier in Janu ary. Rates on bankers acceptances increased follow ing the advance in the buying rate of the New Y ork Federal Reserve Bank effective January 8, while rates on com mercial paper showed little change during the period. Money Market The month of January in the Second District, as fo r the country as a whole, was marked by the retirement o f credit and currency called forth by the December holiday trade and the heavy financial adjustments that MILLIONS OF DOLLARS CURVE 2 M o n e y In C irculation D a ta are A v e ra g e s o f F ir s t-o f-m o n th F ig u res and R eserve B an k C redit D ata are M on th ly A v e ra g e s o f D aily F igu res. center at the year-end. In this district the effect o f the year-end movements was particularly marked ow ing to New Y o r k ’s position as the chief financial market and custodian o f a large part o f the surplus funds o f the country. The m ajor features o f these January m ove ments in this district may be summarized as follow s: Over $100,000,000 of currency was redeposited in the Federal Reserve Bank. Bank deposits were reduced about $160,000,000, thus releasing bank reserves. About $90,000,000 was transferred to this district from the interior. A s a consequence o f this decrease in currency and credit requirements and movement o f funds from other centers member banks in New Y ork City were able to repay a large part o f their indebtedness at the Reserve Bank, and the total o f Reserve Bank credit in use decreased about $200,000,000. The diagrams on page 3 show the movement o f loans and investments o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f New Y ork and o f the System during November, Decem ber, January, and February o f three years, and illus trates how the movements in this district parallel those o f the country as a whole. Accom panying the passing o f year-end requirements and the net im port o f $9,000,000 in gold, largely from Canada, call money rates, which at the close o f the year had risen to 6 per cent, declined in January to 4 % and 4 per cent, approxim ately the levels prevailing in the early autumn. Stock market time money conditions were also substantially easier, as shown by a decline in rates from 4% -5 per cent to 4 % -4 % per cent. In the commercial paper market supplies were in creased by the usual first o f the year borrowing, but as buying demand was also more active rates showed an easier tendency, though remaining generally 4*4-41/2 per cent. Despite a later reduction in supplies, most dealers reported an increase during the month in the volume o f paper outstanding. D uring December this had fallen an additional 7 per cent to $621,000,000, the FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT A T NEW YO R K MILLIONS OFDOLLARS B IL L IO N S O FDO LLARS 1925-2G 1.5 -----__ ?23*24 .5 NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY Total Bills and Securities o f Federal Reserve Bank o f New York. Latest figure, January 25. Total Bills and Securities of all Federal Reserve Banks. Latest figure, January 20- lowest point since the com pilation of figures was begun in 1918. Follow ing the advance in the discount rate o f the Federal Reserve Bank of New Y ork from 3 % to 4 per cent, effective January 8, and an increase also in the buying rates of the Reserve Bank, dealers’ rates for bills advanced ^ o f 1 per cent to 3 % per cent on their purchases o f 90-day unindorsed bills, and 3 % per cent on sales. A t these levels few bills came into the market, notwithstanding a continued good demand, and rates in some cases eased off % of 1 per cent, so that the range at the close of January was 3 % -3 % per cent on offerings of 90-day bills. 000,000 were slightly larger than in 1924, while muni cipal and farm loan offerings o f $1,517,000,000 were slightly smaller than in 1924. The accom panying dia gram shows new capital issues fo r the past six years according to classes o f borrowers. Figures are taken from the Commercial and Financial Chronicle and exclude refunding issues. Security Markets In the first part of January stocks generally continued the firmer tendencies of December, and railroad price averages rose to new high levels since 1913, while industrial issues recovered close to the high levels o f last November. Later in the month price movements turned irregularly lower. Corporation bonds continued firmer, accom panying easier money conditions and strong January reinvest ment demand, and price averages advanced to the high est levels since 1917. United States Government issues made net gains o f % to % a point, and foreign issues showed in many cases advances ranging 1 to 2 points. Offerings o f new securities increased substantially in January and were the largest since January 1923, an unusually high month. Industrial and public utility offerings were important elements in the increase and included a considerable volume o f stock issues. A t $6,216,000,000 new capital issues fo r the entire year 1925 were larger than in any previous year and $623,000,000 above 1924. Corporate financing amounted to $3,607,000,000, an increase o f $578,000,000 over 1924. Of this group a noteworthy feature was the increase in realty issues, which at $715,000,000 fo r the year com pared with $333,000,000 in 1924, $251,000,000 in 1923, and $91,000,000 in 1920. Foreign issues totaling $1,092,- 5,593 FOREIGN MUNICIPAL &FARM*L0ANS CORPORATE 19Z0 192.1 1922 25 19 1924 1925 New Capital Issues Each Year by Types o f Borrowers. Refunding Issues Excluded (In millions of dollars) Foreign Trade E xports o f merchandise valued at $468,000,000 in December were about $20,000,000 larger than in Novem ber 1925 or December 1924 and brought total exports fo r the year to $4,909,000,000, or 7 per cent more than in 1924. Imports fo r December valued at $394,000,000 were $17,000,000 above November and $61,000,000 in excess o f December last year, so that the total fo r the year was $4,224,000,000, or 17 per cent more than in 1924. Reflecting the larger increase o f imports the export balance was reduced from approxim ately a billion dol 4 M O N THLY REVIEW, FEBRUARY 1, 1926 lars in 1924 to $685,000,000 in 1925 which compares with an average o f about $500,000,000 annually in the years before the war. In 1925 there was a large in crease over 1924 both in the quantity and value of silk and rubber imports, and a decline of $82,000,000 in the value of grain exports. British Foreign Trade for 1925 D uring 1925 British imports of merchandise showed an increase o f £45,000,000 to £1,323,000,000, while exports declined £13,000,000 to £927,000,000. A t £395,000,000 the excess o f imports was £58,000,000 larger than last year, and the highest since the abnormal war and post-war trade balances o f 1917,1918, and 1919. In considering the significance o f this im port balance, allowance should be made for the growth in the total volume o f foreign trade. W hile the actual excess o f imports rose to high levels in 1925, a com putation of the percentage excess o f imports over exports indicated that this figure was not unusually high as measured by the levels prevalent in many years before the war. This is reflected in the diagram at the foot o f the page, which shows both the actual and percentage excess o f imports over exports each year since 1870. In addition to the merchandise figures, allowance should be made in com puting the trade balance fo r movements of gold and silver, and fo r large invisible exports in the form of shipping, insurance, and bank niLucms ing services, foreign investments, etc. Taking into con sideration all accounts, the British Board o f Trade has estimated fo r 1925 a favorable trade balance o f £28,000,000 against £63,000,000 in 1924, and £153,000,000 in 1923. Foreign Exchange D uring January sterling rose to $4.86% , the highest since December 1914. This movement was in keeping with the normal seasonal tendency, which is upward at this period o f the year, when the heaviest fall com modity shipments have been completed. The follow ing diagram compares the course o f sterling during the past year with the average annual fluctuation over the period from 1889 to 1919, and indicates how closely the move ment in recent months has conform ed to the usual seasonal tendency. French francs, after advancing slightly during the first half of the month, reacted to 3.71 cents. Belgian francs continued steady at 4.54 cents and lire at 4.04 cents. Danish and Norwegian currencies retained their gains and rates on other important European countries showed little change. The Japanese yen continued to rise, and at 45 cents reached the highest point since February 1924. A rgen tine and Brazilian quotations also advanced, but Cana dian rates, with the passing o f the principal export sea son, declined further to a discount o f % o f 1 per cent, which led to substantial shipments o f gold to New Y ork. of £ PERCENT. 140 700 120 100 80 60 4-0 *2Q . B70 ’75 British Foreign Trade. '80 <35 '90 '95 1900 '(5 r5) 0 lo Actual Excess of Merchandise Imports over Exports each year, and Percentage Excess of Imports over Exports. FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT A T NEW Y O R K MILLIONS OFOOLLAR5 -COLLARS 4 .8 7 /2 ----SEA SO N A L 1 8 0 9 -1 0 1 9 A V . 4 . S 4& j STERUNS / l$Z5-26 4.81 'k 4.7 W/z 4.75^1— J——L__________ JAN- FEB- MAR- APR- MAY JUN ' JU L AUCr- SEP- OCT- NOV- DEC- JAN- FEB Course of Sterling Exchange in 1 925-26 Compared with Average Monthly Movement in 1889-1919. Gold Movement Follow ing small gold movements in December ap proxim ately $11,000,000 o f gold was im ported at New Y ork from Canada during the first 27 days o f January. This movement, which accompanied the decline in Canadian exchange, marks the return o f a part o f the 36 millions net shipped to Canada from New Y ork dur ing October and November. Other gold imports at New Y ork during January were about half a m illion dollars, and exports amounted to only $2,600,000, con sisting chiefly o f small shipments to South Am erica and the F ar East. F or the year 1925, gold imports into the United States totaled $128,000,000, o f which $49,000,000 was from England, $33,000,000 from Canada, $11,000,000 from Japan, and $10,000,000 from H olland. E xports totaled $263,000,000, including $68,000,000 to Germany, $59,000,000 to British India, $46,000,000 to Canada, and $27,000,000 to Australia. A t $134,000,000 the export balance was the first shown since 1919, and follow ed a net gold im port since that year o f $1,553,000,000, and since 1914 o f $2,400,000,000. Monthly Building Permits in New York City and in 2 0 Sabmrban Cities. New York City figures divided by 10. (Latest figures December) with those reported fo r 20 suburban localities by S. W . Straus & Company. F o r 1925 the total fo r the 20 suburban cities was 57 per cent greater than in 1922, com pared with an increase o f 60 per cent in New Y ork City. Moreover, at $184,000,000 the 1925 total fo r these suburban cities was larger than fo r any city o f the United States excepting only New Y ork and Chicago, and added to the billion dollars recorded fo r New Y ork City alone brought the total reported permits fo r the city and suburbs to an amount equaling approximately one-quarter o f all reported permits fo r the United States. The follow ing table from the Straus reports compares permits fo r the city and suburbs and fo r the entire country during 1924 and 1925. (In thousands of dollars) Building 1924 B uilding activity was maintained at an unusually high level in the final month o f 1925. The F . W . Dodge Corporation reported December contracts awarded in 36 states 56 per cent larger than those o f a year pre vious, and fo r the year 30 per cent larger than in 1924. December permits issued in 391 cities were 15 per cent larger than in 1924, and the total fo r 1925 was 19 per cent larger, according to S. W . Straus & Company. In the New Y ork and Northern New Jersey district, despite the winter season, contracts awarded in Decem ber were the largest ever reported and were more than double those o f December 1924. P art o f the increase was due to subway contracts in New Y ork City, but residential contracts were larger than in any previous month, and commercial building continued substan tially larger than a year previous. The rapid increase in New Y ork City building in the last fou r years has been paralleled by an equally rapid expansion in suburban building, as shown by the accom panying diagram com paring permits in New Y ork City New York C ity............................................................... 20 Suburban Cities near New York C it y .................... 837,662 157,928 1925 1,030,655 183,760 Total............................................................................ 995,590 1,214,415 391 Cities..................................................................... 3,740,791 4,451,960 Wages and Employment Accom panying active trade and manufacturing, wages continue at high levels within the district. The hiring rate fo r unskilled labor reported to this bank by repre sentative employers averaged slightly higher on January 1 than on J uly 1, and was practically the same as at the high point o f 1923. A seasonal reduction in labor turn over was noted in some localities, and longer hours were reported by a few employers, apparently representing a return to winter schedules. Average weekly earnings o f factory workers in New York State advanced to $29.05 in December, which is slightly above the previous high level reached in 1920, as the accom panying diagram shows, and is more than M ON THLY REVIEW, FEBRU ARY 1, 1926 a dollar above the highest weekly earnings o f 1923. This high level o f earnings during recent years accom panies greatly increased per capita output o f workers and has been distributed rather generally throughout the m anufacturing industries. The principal exceptions are industries such as textiles, which have been de pressed during a considerable part o f the past two years. PERCENT. puted trend, or normal, while silk mill activity continued substantially above normal. Cement and zinc output was also at high levels and further advances occurred in the indexes of pig iron, steel ingot, and bituminous coal production. Contrasting with activity in the cotton and silk indus tries, woolen m ill operations showed a considerable decline in December, and at 84 per cent o f estimated normal, were the lowest since last summer. The fo re g o ing table shows this ban k ’s indexes o f production in leading industries in percentages o f the com puted trend, after allowance fo r seasonal variation. Indexes of Business Activity Changes in Average Weekly Earnings of Factory Operatives in New York State and Wages of Unskilled Labor. Latest figures, December. 1914 Av. = 100 Per cent. Production P roduction in important industries continued to expand in December, after allowance fo r the effect of Christmas and other seasonal factors. M ill consump tion of cotton, amounting to 575,000 bales, was the largest since A p ril and only slightly below the com(Computed trend of past years=100 per cent) General business and trade activity continued at a high level in December. Bank debits in 140 centers, outside o f New Y ork City, which closely reflect trade changes, were 10 per cent above a year ago, notwith standing the suspension o f many lines o f business for three consecutive days during Christmas week. F or the entire year 1925 the increase over 1924 in debits in these centers amounted to over 12 per cent, and carried the totals to levels exceeding even those o f 1919 and 1920, when the level o f prices was much higher. The accom panying diagram, com paring the figures fo r five years, reflects the steady growth of business during this period. W hile prices have been a factor in these increases, a comparison o f the rise o f debits and general prices from year to year would show that prices have not been the m ajor factor. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1924 Producers’ Goods Pig iron...................................................... Steel ingots................................................ Bituminous coal....................................... Copper, U. S. mines................................. Tin deliveries............................................ JSinc............................................................ Petroleum.................................................. Gas and fuel oil........................................ Cotton consumption................................. Woolen m il activity*.............................. Cement...................................................... Lumber...................................................... Leather, sole............................................. Silk consumption*.................................... Consumers' Goods Cattle slaughtered.................................... Calves slaughtered.................................... Sheep slaughtered..................................... Hogs slaughtered..................................... Sugar meltings, U. S. ports..................... Wheat flour............................................... Cigars......................................................... Cigarettes.................................................. Tobacco, manufactured........................... Gasoline..................................................... Tires........................................................... Newsprint.................................................. Paper, total............................................... Boots and shoes........................................ Anthracite coal......................................... Automobi’e, all......................................... Automobile, passenger............................. Automobile, truck.................................... *=Seasonal variation not allowed for. p =Preliminary r=Revised 1925 Dec. Oct. Nov. Dec. 92 112 98 102 75 105 116 107 92 100 126 110 87 105 89 104 106 104 101 113 119 103 91 94 126 110 79 136 90 110 110 104r 118 111 119 100 95 93r 123r 102 73 121 98 123 118p 102 109 113 109 131 103 119 85 101 100 84 98 124 141 106 102 98 88 97 92 118 109 117 95 102 122 95 115 71 106 132 116 118 87 lOOr ** 169 179 128 93 104 89 85 99 83 105 71 96 133 120 120r 90 88 ** 166r 175 130 **=Strike ‘ 98 84p 125 115P i22 108 132 104 80 184 97 98 82 100 i20 95 96p ** 137 138 132 M onthly Bank Debits in 140 Clearing Centers outside o f New York City during 1921-1925 Other indexes o f business activity, such as railway traffic, retail trade, and factory employment, likewise continued at high levels in December. The table on page 7 gives this ban k ’s indexes o f business activity in percentages o f the com puted trend, after allowance fo r seasonal variation and, where necessary, fo r price changes. FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK (Computed trend of past years =100 per cent) Primary Distribution Car load:nga, merchandise and raise....... Car loadings, otbsr................................... Wholesale trade, Second District........... Exports...................................................... Imports...................................................... Grain exports,........................................... Panama Canal traffic............................... Distribution to Consumer Department store sales, Second District. Chain store sales....................................... Mail order sales....................................... life insurance paid for............................. Real estate transfers................................ Magazine advertising............................... Newspaper advertising............................. General Business Activity Bank debits, outside of New York City. Bank debits, New York City.................. Bank debits, 2nd Dist. excl. New York City........................................................ Velocity of bank deposits, outside of New York City.................... ......................... Velocity of bank deposits, New York City........................................................ Shares sold on New York Stock Ex change*.............................................. Postal receipts....................................... Electric power....................................... Employment, N. Y. State factories... Business failures................................... Building permits r................................ Department Store Trade 1925 1924 Dec. Oct. Nov. Dec. 102 103 94 94r 95 118 48 85 106 104 91 106 106 97 89p 122p 47 108 99 89 108 93 120 100 100 106 99 128 116 113j> 106 86 120 40 91 99 116 100 102 112 134 113 109 i02 111 109 123 107 92 112 121 110 102 103 100 101 107 123 125 124 246 103 107 97 307 104 279 99 108 245 108 166r 160r 125 117 114 98 96 100 104 116 100 102 125 Final reports on department store sales in December confirm prelim inary figures reported last month o f an 8 per cent increase over December 1924, the previous high mark. Total sales fo r 1925 showed a 5y2 per cent increase over 1924, com pared with a 4 % per cent gain during 1924 over 1923. A pparel store sales in Decem ber were 10 per cent larger than a year previous, and total sales fo r the year showed an increase o f about 6 per cent. Net Sales Percentage Change 97 Dec. 1925 from Deo. 1924 Stock on hand Percentage Change Year Dec.31 Year 1925 1925 1925 from from from Year Dec.31 Year 1924 1924 1924 + + + + + + + — — + + + + 5.7 2.9 8.4 0.9 7.3 5.2 3.2 4.1 0.8 1.7 7.6 7.1 2.4 + 5.0 + 1.0 + 0.6 + 1.9 +13.2 + 5.3 + 5.0 + + + + + + + 3.7 1.4 4.5 2.6 5.5 4.9 0.3 Annual Rate of Stock Turnover 1924 1925 4.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 4.3 3.3 3.7 3.4 4.1 3.2 2.5 *=Seasonal variation not allowed for. + 8.0 + 3.9 Rochester............................................. + 7.6 + 2.5 +10.9 +11.1 Elsewhere............................................. + 6.6 Northern New York State............ + 0.2 Central New York State.............. + 3.0 Southern New York State............. + 6.7 Hudson River Valley District....... +10.1 Capital District............................... + 5.7 Westchester District....................... +10.7 r = Revised All department stores......................... + 7.9 + 5.5 + 5.4 + 3.5 3.9 4.0 Apparel stores..................................... +10.4 + 5.7 — 7.9 +13.5 +12.8 Mail order houses........................... 4.8 5.0 112r 100 111 97 178r 149r 100 102 100 101 2>=Preliminary Wholesale Trade W holesale trade in this district averaged slightly larger in December than a year previous, and total sales for the year were 1.4 per cent above last year, due largely, however, to the substantially higher level of prices. D uring December stocks o f merchandise were reduced from November in most lines except groceries, where the total, however, was smaller than in December last year. Other lines also generally reported stocks on hand at the end o f the year to be about equal to or smaller than at the end o f 1924, except silk goods and shoes, in which stocks were reported larger than last year. Large increases in December sales com pared with those o f a year previous were reported in a wide variety o f lines, including m en ’s clothing and furnishings, hosiery, shoes, furniture, luggage and leather goods, and toys. In silk goods, books and stationery, and radio sets, however, the gains were somewhat smaller than in recent months. A feature o f business in w om en’s clothing, both fo r December and fo r the year, was an increase in sales o f dresses and a decrease in sales of suits. The follow ing table shows the percentage changes in total sales and stocks by m ajor departments, both fo r December and for the entire year. Net Sales Percentage Change Net Sales Percentage Change Commodity Groceries............................. Men’s clothing................... Women’s dresses................ Women’s coats and suits. . Cotton goods—Jobbers---Cotton goods— Commission Silk goods........................... Shoes....................................... Drugs................................... Hardware............................ Machine tools..................... Stationery........................... Paper................................... Diamonds........................... Jewelry................................ Weighted Average.......... — 10.9 — 25.2 +119.3 — 31.3 —10.2 — 0.6 — 0.9 + 0.3 —20.2 + 8.7 + 4.2 +13.7 — 10.9 — 15.5 + 17.3 +16.6 — 0.3 + 0.4 +10.4 + 3.2 — 9.5 — 0.4 + 3.8 +18.5 +16.0 + 7.1 — 16.1 — 2.0 5.8 —10.2 +12.1 + 0.6 ♦Stock at first of month— quantity not value. Stock at end of month Percentage Change Dec. 1925 Dec 1925 Year 1925 Dec. 1925 Dec. 1925 from from from from from Nov. 1925 Dec. 1924 Year 1924 Nov. 1925 Dec. 1924 — + — — 2.5 5.7 3.1 8.5 — 1.1 + 9.0 +22.7 + 3.4 — 5.7 + 1.4 +23,0 + 3.4 + 1.2 + 7.0 — 2.0 + 1.4 + 3.1 — 1.6 — 0.7 -12.8 — 4.1* — 8.1 —10.6 — *2!3 -13.0 + 0.7 — 5.8 Stock on Hand Percentage Change Dec. 1925 Year 1925 Deo. 31, 1925 Year 1925 from from from from Dec. 1924 Year 1924 Deo. 31, 1924 Year 1924 Cotton goods............................. Silks and velvets....................... Woolen goods............................ Men’s and Boys’ wear.............. Men’s furnishings...................... Women s and Misses’ ready-towear ........................................ Women’s ready-to-wear access- +35; 3* +13.7 -12.7 0 Home furnishings...................... Linens and handkerchiefs......... Toilet articles and drugs.......... Silverware and jewelry............. Luggage and other leather....... Books and stationery................ Toya and sporting goods.......... Musical instruments and radio Miscellaneous............................ 5.4 6.4 5.2 3.0 1.9 + — — + + 6.3 3.8 1.3 6.1 8.5 + 5.4 +10.8 — 9.7 + 7.2 + 9.4 + — + + + + 8.5 + 8.9 — 5.2 + 0.4 + 7.2 +10.5 +18.0 +12.1 + 5.1 + 6.9 + 9.5 + 2.9 + 9.3 +10.7 +12.3 + 7.4 + 7.8 +10.2 — 4.9 +10.2 + 5.2 +16.5 + 4.5 — 0.9 + 5.0 — 1.6 + 4.5 + 11.9 + 4.0 — 0.8 + 2.5 + 9.4 + 4.8 +12.2 + 4.2 +10.8 + 7.1 +11.5 + 4.5 +11.1 + 8.2 +14.9 +51.0 — 1.2 + 4.2 +27.0 +23.8 + 18.6 + 2.0 — 3.9 — + + + — — + 2.6 + 2.6 —21.0 +16.3 +12.3 1.3 7.9 8.8 1.6 2.5 3.4 Production and Trade in 1925 Total production and business activity was greater in 1925 than in any previous year. E ven after allow ance fo r normal growth, the volume o f business appears to have been greater than in any year since the war. The diagram below compares 1925 production in vari ous lines with that o f 1924. Crop yields averaged only slightly larger than in 1924, and the total value esti mated on the basis o f December 1 prices by the D epart ment of A griculture was $9,615,000,000, com pared with $10,162,000,000 in 1924. Price declines more than offset the effect o f larger yields o f corn and cotton and the partial failure o f the wheat crop was not fu lly com pensated fo r by a rise in prices. H igher livestock values, however, appear to have offset the smaller return from crops. Production of metals and minerals, excepting anthra cite coal, was generally larger than in 1924. Steel ingot production totaled over 45,000,000 tons, or 80 per cent o f theoretical capacity, and was larger than in any previous year, while p ig iron output totaled nearly 37,000,000 tons, or 75 per cent o f capacity. Increased production o f coke, fuel oil, and bituminous coal un doubtedly was due partly to the anthracite strike. The larger output o f gasoline reflects the further expansion of motor car use. Cement production exceeded even the very high level of 1924. Silk and rayon manufactures and automobile and tire production showed the largest gains among the manu facturing industries. Passenger vehicle production was CORN BARLEY COTTONCROP BUCKWHEAT TOBACCO RICE OATS APPLE HAY WHEAT POTATOES RYE FLAXSEED CROPS asm125 MINERALS fcf METALS GASOLINE STEEL INGOTS TIN D ELIV ERIES P ie IRON COKE. GA5 fsi F U E L OIL Z IN C CEM ENT COAL BITUMINOUS PETROLEUM COPPER COAL .ANTHRACITE m m m nm M UKtUi ■ BH O H HBBn 108 108 106 M A N UFAC TU RES SILK CONSUMPTION MOTOR TRUCKS RAYON PASSENGER CARS saa337 1132. M PM M IH UM IB — HP H H B B tir e s COTTON CONSUMPTION TOBACCO CONSUMPTION SUGAR MELTINGS LUMBER BOOTS €# SHOES NEWS PRINT SOLE LEATHER PAPER TOTAL WOOL CONSUMPTION jWHEAT FLOUR MILLED 'a n im a l s SLAUGHTERO LOCOMOTIVES SHIPPED mm 1923 1924 1925 88 105 93 93 90 107 91 96 97 100 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 121 117 114 113 112 107 107 105 104 104 101 84 78 100 84 90 96 99 95 97 114 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 161 145 126 123 119 118 112 109 96 85 Distribution Chain grocery store sales (dollars).............. Imports, U. S. (dollars)................................. Life insurance (dollars)................................. Mail order house sales (dollars)................... Chain store sales (excl. groceries)............... Freight ton mileage....................................... Exports, U . S. (dollars)................................. Department store sales, 2nd distriot (dollars) Magasine advertising.................................... Newspaper advertising.................................. Wholesale trade, 2nd district....................... General Business Activity Shares sold on N. Y. Stock Exchange......... Gra:n future sales in Chicago....................... Stock Corp. formed in New York State.. . . New Corporate Financing (dollars)............. Bank debits, New York City (dollars)........ Building permits (dollars)............................. Bank debits outside New York City (dollars) Postal receipts (dollars)................................ Business failures............................................. Cotton future sales........................................ The table which follows gives this bank’s index o f the total volume o f trade during the past seven years after allowance fo r trend o f growth and, where necessary, fo r price changes. Included in this index are the items referred to in the preceding paragraphs, as well as other series representing production and distribution in various forms. O f the component groups of the index, that representing financial activity, which includes speculation, new security issues, etc., showed a particu larly large increase, but production and general business activity were also substantially above normal. (Computed trend of past years=100 per cent) a 104 g 103 Production in 1925 Compared with Production in 1924. substantially larger than in 1924, but was only slightly larger than in 1923, while m otor truck production was much higher than in any previous year, and more than one-fourth greater than in 1923. The relatively small demand fo r railroad equipment is reflected in a decrease in locomotive shipments, and the small wheat crop and curtailed livestock production resulted in reductions in wheat flour m illing and animal slaughtering. Indexes o f distribution and general business activity were higher than in either 1924 or 1923 as the follow ing table shows. A large increase in imports reflected the increased raw material requirements o f m anufacturing industries, and exports were larger than in 1924, despite the decline in grain exports. Chain store and m ail order business was greatly expanded, and departm ent store sales increased, especially in the latter half o f the year. A ctive trade conditions, larger corporation earnings, and relatively low money rates were reflected in the high level o f speculative activity and in a large increase in new incorporations and new security offerings. B uild ing activity was greater than ever before, and a high level o f general business activity is shown by the volume o f bank debits. 1919 Productive aotivity.............. Distribution.......................... Financial activity................. General business activity. . . 103 119 105 Total volume of trade___ 104 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 97 83 96 93 94 101 107 99 113 103 115 103 102 104 126 104 113 104 171 92 101 108 105 101 105 100 101 112 112 111
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