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MONTHLY REVIEW o f C r e d it a n d B u s in e s s C o n d it io n s S e c o n d Federal Reserve Agent F e d e r a l R e s e r v e D is t r ic t Federal Reserve Bank, New York August 1, 1925 P r o d u c t io n contracts in June were the smallest fo r any month since February, but greatly exceeded those o f a year ago. The Department o f A griculture estimate o f the con dition o f all crops combined on July 1 showed some im provement from the month before. The corn crop forecast places it at approxim ately 650,000,000 bushels above last year. The July 16 cotton crop estimate was 13,588,000 bales, com pared with a forecast o f 14,339,000 bales on June 25. Production in basic industries, as indicated by the Federal Reserve B oa rd ’s index, declined about one per cent in June to the lowest level since the autumn of 1924, but was 17 per cent above the low point o f last summer. Output of pig iron, steel ingots, lumber, newsprint, and petroleum, and mill consumption of cotton declined in June, while production of bituminous coal, sole leather, and wheat flour increased. The number o f automobiles m anufactured during June was slightly less than in May. Factory employment declined one per cent and factory pay rolls over 2 per cent between M ay 15 and June 15, reflecting substantial declines in the automobile, boot and shoe, textile, and iron and steel industries. B uild ing contracts awarded during June wT ere larger in value than during May and almost equaled the peak figure fo r A pril. In square feet of floor space the June awards were a little smaller than those fo r May. Residential Freight car loadings were larger during June than during May, as is usual at that season, and also consider ably exceeded the figures fo r June 1924, the low point o f last year. Sales at department stores during June were seasonally smaller than in May, but totaled 5 per cent more than last year. It should be borne in mind, however, that in June o f this year there were 4 Sundays as com pared with 5 in the preceding month as well as in June 1924. Mail order sales were 6 per cent larger than in May and exceeded the amount fo r June 1924. Sales o f wholesale firms were 5 per cent greater than in May and larger than in any June in the last five years. Department store stocks were reduced further in June, but were slightly larger than a year ago. Wholesale stocks o f groceries, shoes, and hardware were smaller at the end o f June than a month earlier, but those o f dry B u s in e s s C o n d itio n s in th e U n ite d S ta te s R O D U C TIO N o f basic commodities and factory employment declined further in June, while rail way freight shipments and the volume of wholesale trade increased. Wholesale prices, after declining fo r two months, advanced in June. P PER CENT. T rade PERCENT. J > 157 WHOLESALE PRICES 1913*100 192.Z Index of 22 Basic Commodities Corrected for Seasonal Variation. (1919 = 1 0 0 Per cent. Latest figure, June.) .1923 19 £4 1925 Index of U. S. Bureau o f Labor Statistics (1913 100 Per cent base adopted by Bureau. Latest figure, June.) 2 M ONTHLY REVIEW, AUGUST 1, 1925 PER CEN T. Indexes o f Fa ctory E m p lo ym en t and F a ctory P a yrolls in M an u facturin g Industries. ( 1 9 1 9 average = 1 00 Per cent. L a te st figu res, J u ne.) goods and drugs were larger. Compared with a year ago stocks o f groceries and drugs were larger in value while stocks o f dry goods, shoes, and hardware were smaller. P rices Wholesale commodity prices advanced 1.4 per cent in June, according to the index of the Bureau o f Labor Statistics, follow ing declines in A p ril and May. The largest increase fo r any com modity group was fo r the miscellaneous group which includes crude ru b b e r; prices o f farm products, foods, and fuel and lighting also advanced, while prices o f building materials declined considerably. In the first half o f July quotations on flour, beef, hogs, w^ool, copper, petroleum, hides, and rubber increased, while prices of sugar, bituminous coal, and hardwood lumber declined. B a n k C r e d it A t member banks in leading cities the volume o f loans on securities continued to increase after the middle o f June and during the first half o f July was at a higher level than at any previous time. Demand fo r bank credit fo r commercial purposes was relatively inactive and the volume o f commercial loans at reporting member banks remained near the low level fo r this year, although considerably above the amount fo r the corresponding period in 1924. A t the Beserve Banks the seasonal demand fo r credit and currency was reflected in increased borrow ing by member banks which carried discounts at the beginning o f J uly to the highest level in more than a year, and not withstanding the subsequent decline the total on J uly 22 was still at a relatively high level. Total earning assets on that date showed little change as compared with the figures fo r fo u r weeks earlier. Firmness in the money market at the close o f the fiscal year was follow ed by an easing of money after the first week o f July. In the latter part o f the month there was again evidence o f firmer money conditions. R eserve B ank B a n k in g Credit—-^Weekly F ig u res for 12 Federal B an k s. (L a te s t figures. Ju ly 2 2 .) C o n d itio n s in th e S eco n d R eserve D is tr ic t In July o f this year, as in previous years, the demand fo r credit incident to the m id-year settlements fell chiefly upon New Y ork City banks. The withdrawal o f funds from the New Y ork market by out-of-town banks was met by a temporary increase o f loans on securities by New Y ork City banks. A fter the first week o f July out-of-town money returned to New Y ork and loans by New Y ork banks were restored to the level which has been maintained with a good deal o f consistency since the first o f the year. B y the middle o f July, in fact, the figures fo r various types o f loans and investments by New Y ork City banks were slightly lower than at the m iddle o f June. Figures fo r the loans and investments o f reporting member banks in New Y ork City are shown in the fo l lowing table fo r J uly 22, June 17, and fo r January 7, to indicate the changes over a longer period. New York C ity Reporting M ember Banks (In millions of dollars) Jan. 7 June 17 July 22 Commercial loans........................................ .. Investments (including Government securities)......... Loans on stocks and bonds.............................................. 2,420 1,876 2,002 2,205 1,813 2,000 2,195 1,807 1,977 Total loans and investm ents....................................... 6,298 6,018 5,979 As the table shows there has been a decline o f over 300 millions since the first o f the year in the total amount o f credit extended by these New Y ork City banks. O f this 300 million decline, over 200 millions was in com mercial loans, while 80 millions was in holdings o f Government securities. The principal feature in which these New Y ork City banks have differed since the first o f the year from the banks outside New Y ork which report weekly has been in the movement o f loans on stocks and bonds. W hile loans o f this character by these New Y ork City banks have remained steady since the first o f the year, such FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK loans by outside banks have increased about 375 million dollars. Aggregate commercial loans and investments o f outside banks show practically no change since the first o f the year. Tem porary extensions of credit over the mid-year, to gether with a fourth o f J uly demand fo r extra currency amounting to about 35 million dollars led to an increase fo r a few days in borrowings by New Y ork City banks at the Federal Reserve Bank. The average amount o f credit extended by the Reserve Bank, however, during the month o f July was only slightly larger than in June. M o n e y M a rk e t Demands for additional credit and currency in late June and the first week in July were reflected in firm money conditions and the highest call money rates since March. This condition was tem porary and call rates during most of the month were around 4 per cent. As the month progressed, however, a firmer tendency be came apparent in the markets fo r commercial paper, government securities, and time money. The New Y ork market fo r commercial paper remained inactive owing to more attractive yields offered on other investments, but a steady demand continued in the in terior. Sales were generally made at 3 % to 4 per cent, but towards the close of the month some dealers re ported a tendency fo r sales to be chiefly at 4 per cent. Paper supplies continued generally small, and the amount outstanding through 26 dealers at the end of June was 2 per cent lower than at the end of May and lower than in any June since 1921. A n inactive demand, together with a decreasing sup ply, caused a dull bill market during the month. The volume of bills in dealers ’ portfolios showed little change and rates remained 3 % per cent on purchases o f 90 day bills and 3% per cent on sales. In Government short term securities firmer conditions were indi cated by an advance of Ys to nearly % o f one per cent in yields o f issues m aturing in 8 to 14 months. A continuance o f the firmer trend in stock market time money rates brought rates fo r 60 to 90 day loans to 4-414 per cent, compared with 3 % -3 % in May. S e c u r ity M a rk e ts The rise o f industrial stocks continued in July and carried averages to new high prices, 20 points above the lowest levels touched in March, and 15 points above the high levels of previous years reached in 1919. Railway stocks generally held steady, and failed to parallel the advance of industrial issues. Bonds showed a slight reactionary tendency, accom panying firmer money conditions. Corporation aver ages declined somewhat below the high levels o f May and June, and United States Government issues, after advancing early in J uly to new high prices fo r the year and in some cases since the date of issuance, later showed net losses ranging from to over a point. The volume of new securities issued was heavy in both foreign and domestic classes. Chief among the foreign 3 issues was an offering o f $75,000,000 bonds o f the Com monwealth o f Australia, while foreign securities o f all types issued during the month aggregated $168,000,000, and brought the total since the first o f the year to $740,000,000. Domestic issues during the month were w idely diver sified, but included a larger proportion o f railway issues than in June. In the diagram below is shown the steady expansion in the past few years in the volume o f cor porate financing. The figures, which are taken from the Commercial and Financial Chronicle, do not include re funding loans. Despite active financing in 1923 and 1924, the volume o f new issues put out in the first six months o f this year has been larger than ever before. A chief factor in this increase has been the expansion in public utility financing. Issues by m anufacturing com panies likewise increased sharply, while railway financ ing declined after being heavy last year. A feature o f the financing, shown by the diagram, is the marked tendency fo r new security offerings to be larger in the first half than in the second half o f the year. 1,697 A L L OTHERS MANUFACTURING RAILROADS PUBLIC U T IL IT IE S isr.. HALF HALF 1920 N ew Capital Issu es E ach H a lf Y e a r b y T y p e s o f Com panies. (R efu n d in g Issu es E xclu ded .) In M illions o f D ollars. F o r e ig n E x c h a n g e Follow ing declines in June to lowest levels o f the year, French, Belgian, and Italian exchanges showed firmer tendencies in July. Greater confidence regarding French finances, caused partly by the favorable recep tion accorded the new internal loan was accompanied by a recovery in the French franc from below 4 % cents to nearly 4 % cents. Belgian exchange was also stronger, and Italian lire rallied from 3 1 /3 cents to around 3.70 cents. Sterling held generally about $4.85% until late in the month when threat o f a coal strike caused a tem porary reaction o f about a cent. Receipts o f gold at the Bank o f England have continued to exceed with drawals, and the net gain since the reestablishment o f the gold standard has been nearly £7,000,000. Increased strength occurred also in Dutch guilders, which had declined somewhat in June, and Swiss, Swedish, and Canadian exchanges continued strong at MONTHLY REVIEW , AUGUST 1/1925 or above par. Accom panying active foreign trade and prospects fo r large crops Canadian exchange reached a premium o f % of one per cent, a new high level since November 1922. Danish and Norwegian exchanges con tinued their rapid advances, and while still considerably below par are more than 30 per cent higher than last fall when the upward movement became marked. (In thousands of dollars) 1923 Receipts Shipments Net Shipments 482 1,691 1,123 1,148 537 580 1,462 344 5,487 5,639 485 177 172 107 61 67 72 62 69 2 318 621 1,505 2,162 4,554 6,558 8,260 6,058 6,637 7,097 6,133 9,156 5,169 5,018 5,680 7,575 5,056 3,097 3,444 6,716 38,808 97,994 Net Receipts 2,214 500 514 47 0 10 37 September. . . . 2,696 899 2,966 1,607 7,535 2,951 3,076 3,570 *792 1,843 459 6,998 2,371 1,614 3,226 1924 G o ld M o v e m e n t The gold movement at the P ort of New Y ork in July was even smaller than in June. F or the first 28 days of the month exports totaled only $2,100,000, and im ports $500,000, leaving an export balance o f $1,600,000. June reports fo r the whole country show that both exports and imports were smaller than in May, though the export balance o f $2,300,000, was slightly larger. O f the exports, which aggregated $6,700,000, approxi mately $3,600,000 went to H ong K ong and $1,000,000 each to Mexico and Italy. Nearly two-thirds o f the $4,400,000 imported came from Canada. D uring the first half o f 1925 total exports amounted to $190,900,000 and imports to $40,700,000, making a net export o f $150,200,000. The follow ing diagram re flects the extent of the recent export movement and its gradual decline in the past few months. iM O $ ILU N OFDOLURS *150 +100 i I I EXCESS OF I IM PORTS i l 1 1 I 1 J W 1 r 1 I f i f EXCE55 O ! F ^ EXP<DRTS T i 1 ik X f i f _____ i i 1 I“ 1914 1915 1916 .1917 1918 1919 1920 192.1 1922 1923 .1924 .1925 U nited S tates N e t Im ports and E x ports o f G old. (L a te s t figure, June.) E u ro p e a n M o v e m e n t o f U n ite d S ta te s 1925 5,180 7,061 5,009 3,097 3,434 6,679 88,098 28,912 59,186 Net R eceipts. . F o r e ig n T ra d e A n even balance o f merchandise exports and imports was reached in June at $326,000,000. This was due to a further decline o f $45,000,000 in exports, as imports were practically unchanged from the May figures. Com pared with June 1924, both exports and imports showed increases, but the increase in exports was only 6 per cent, while that o f imports was 19 per cent. F or the fiscal year ended June 30 the increase in exports amounted to $556,000,000, about 80 per cent of which could be attributed to shipments o f grain and cotton. W hile imports increased $270,000,000, the excess o f exports was over a billion dollars. The follow ing diagram shows by months the tendency o f the foreign trade o f the United States, and compares with this the tendencies o f British trade. British exports during the past year have shown little increase, whereas C u rre n c y Since May 1923 this bank has received monthly figures from 14 large New Y ork City banks showing the volume of Am erican currency shipped to and received from foreign countries. The table below gives a summary o f this movement fo r European countries where the de mand fo r Am erican currency during recent years reached large proportions, due to unstable local cur rencies. D uring 1923 and the early months o f 1924 this demand was reflected by substantial net exports from this country. Later, as European stabilization p ro gressed, there was an equally marked return flow o f currency from abroad. The continuation o f this flow in recent months suggests that money is now going over in other ways than through banking channels, such as in the pockets o f tourists, or in the form o f remittances by emigrants through the mail. September. . . . 1,020 1,985 4,382 6,451 8,199 5,991 6,565 7,035 6,064 9,154 exports! \ U J \ H J IMPORT;5 UNITED STATES 1922. U nited .1 9 2 3 ' 192.4 19 2 5 1922 1923 1924 1925 S tates and B ritish E x p orts and Im ports (P ou n d s verted to dollars a t the current rates o f exchange. L a te s t figures, J u ne.) con- 5 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT A T NEW YO R K imports have risen sharply, so that the spread between exports and imports has been larger than at any time since 1920. That sterling has advanced during this period reflects among other factors the heavy volume of foreign financing in this market which has lightened the burden on the pound, and the fact that Great Britain has income from investments abroad as well as large invisible ex ports in the form of banking, shipping, and other services. In the diagram British pound figures are converted to dollars at current rates o f exchange. Production Although curtailment of output continued in June in leading industries such as iron and steel and cotton and woolen goods manufacturing, in other lines, including the manufacture of silk goods, automobiles, cement, and wheat flour, activity showed an increase, after allow ance for seasonal variation. Compared with last year nearly all lines of production showed increases. In the steel industry, operations in June decreased moderately to around 70 per cent of maximum capacity, notwithstanding which production for the first six months of the year was greater than in any six months period except the last half of 1918 and the first half of 1923. W hile there was some further decrease in opera tions early in July, production thereafter held relatively steady at a rate nearly 50 per cent higher than a year ago. Autom obile production in June, while seasonably smaller than in A p ril and May, was larger than in any previous June. F or the first six months o f the year the output of 2,082,550 passenger cars and trucks was like wise higher than in any previous six months period. Anthracite coal mining, on the other hand, decreased in June, but recovered in July to around normal, ac com panying threats of a strike. Coal stocks at the mines are generally estimated at about 10,000,000 tons, an un usually large figure. In the bituminous fields mining continued relatively slack in June and showed little increase in July. A further decrease of 38,000 bales in cotton consump tion reduced this bank’s index to 84 per cent o f the com puted trend, and woolen mill activity decreased to THO USANDS GR05S TONS 150 THOUSANDS O F BALES 30r (Computed trend of past years=100 per cent) June Gas and fuel oil......................................... Cotton consumption................................. Woolen rmll activity*............................... Leather, sole.............................................. Silk consumption*..................................... Consumers' Goods Cattle slaughtered.................................... Calves slaughtered................................... Sheep slaughtered..................................... Hogs slaughtered...................................... Sugar meltings, U. S. ports..................... Wheat flour............................................... Tobacco, manufactured........................... Paper, total............................................... Boots and shoes........................................ Anthracite coal......................................... Automobile, all......................................... Automobile, passenger............................. Automobile, truck.................................... May June 99 100 92 104 122 96 122r 111 101 89 129 113 80 121 89 99 87 99 87 96 132 107 89 83 125 105 74 115 84 94 88 103 99 92 96 99 119 99 109 97 86 102 114 86 106 90 89 92 92 97 76 Steel ingots................................................ Bituminous coal........................................ Copper, U. S. mines................................. Tin deliveries............................................ April 66 62 73 95 71 96 124 101 61 76 118 99 61 74 Producers' Goods 112 106 115 92 113 90 95 82 104 129 128 118 106 101 98 134 139 115 113 97 110 86 93 88 96 79 104 130 121 115 97 90 97 132 140 97 \. 87 93p 93p 136 148 87 TH O USANDS OF BARRELS 600 TH O U S A N D S O F CARS 5 ^ < r \ iis Evidence o f a continued high level o f general business activity appeared in a further rise in June in the index of bank debits outside o f New Y ork City to 11 per cent above the com puted trend, or estimated normal. Car- /1 9 2 5 \ "I 500 1923 .......... 3 f 99 105 101 101 100 102 Indexes of Business Activity / £ 192.3 1 9 2 5 \\ iis 81 per cent, whereas the index of mill consumption of silk rose slightly and was 18 per cent above the normal. M ining o f copper continued heavy and the output of cement was again larger than in any previous year. The diagrams at the foot o f the page compare the daily rate o f output in fou r leading industries thus far this year with production in 1923 and 1924, and the table gives in percentages o f normal this bank’s indexes of production fo r a larger number o f basic lines. 125 .20 ‘ 84 81 128 p = Preliminary r =Revised * = Seasonal variation not allowed for 1925 Z5 1925 1924 / / " 1923 P 1 9 *4 15 300 19Z 4\ 1 9 2 .4 \ 1 0 200 25 P i ie COT TON CONSUf1PTION JAN m A v erage 30 N PRODU C TIO N M H A R M Y JU JU A G S P O T N V D C A P A N L U E C O E D aily Consum ption of Cotton and Production CEME 1 1 PRODU :ft0 N AUTOr-10BILE PRODU C TIO N JA F B M R A R M Y JU JU A G SEP.(XI N V D C N E A P A N L U O E JAN FEB M RA M JUN JUL AU SEP O T N V D C A PR AY G C O E o f P ig Iron, A u tom obiles, (L a te s t figures June, 1 9 2 5 .) and C em ent, by JAN FEB M R A M Y JUN JU AUG S P O T N V D C A PR A L E C O E M on th s for 1923, 1924, and 1925. 6 MONTHLY REVIEW, AUGUST 1, 1925 loading of merchandise and miscellaneous freight was also above the normal for the season, and building opera tions continued at an unusually high level. W hile retail distribution of goods was generally above last year, as shown in succeeding paragraphs, the in dexes of department and chain store sales declined some what, after allowance for price changes, seasonal varia tion, and year to year growth. Mail order sales, how ever, provided an exception to this tendency and were 14 per cent above estimated normal in June. In the case o f foreign trade, the index of exports showed a further considerable decline, while that o f imports was substan tially higher. The follow ing table gives fo r recent months this bank’s indexes o f business activity as percentages o f the com puted trend, after allowance fo r seasonal variation and, where necessary, fo r price changes. (Computed trend of past years=100 per cent) 1924 1925 June Primary Distribution Car loadings, merchandise and misc. . . . Car loadings, other................................... Wholesale trade, Second District............ Exports...................................................... Imports...................................................... Grain exports............................................ Panama Canal traffic............................... Distribution to Consumer Department store sales, Second District. Chain store sales....................................... Mail order sales........................................ Life insurance paid for............................. Real estate transfers................................ Magazine advertising............................... Newspaper advertising............................. General Business Activity April May June 96 95 106 108 93 95 106 108 91r 94 146 97 110 103 99 90 87v 116p *83 Wages and Employment Continued stability in the wage rates paid to un skilled labor is shown by replies from representative em ployers in this district to an inquiry made by this bank. In most cases the hourly hiring rate is between 40 and 50 cents, though the scale fo r building laborers is 20 to 30 cents higher. A s the follow ing diagram shows, the somewhat slack demand fo r labor during the past year has had com paratively little effect on wage scales even o f unskilled labor which are usually most sensitive to changes in working conditions. The stability o f wage rates o f more skilled labor is reflected by average weekly earnings o f factory workers in New Y ork State which have also shown only minor variations in the past two years and held close to the 1920 high levels. In the case o f average weekly earnings the figures are influenced also by changes in working time and the relative amount o f employment in high and low paid trades. 98* 88 89 105 74 125 100 98 109 108 105 103 103 Bank debits, outside of New York City. 110 Bank debits, New York City.................. Bank debits, 2nd District, excl.N.Y.C.r 101 Velocity of bank deposits, outside of N. Y. C.................................................. Velocity of bank deposits, New York 107 City........................................................ 94 Postal receipts........................................... Electric power........................................... • 99 98 Employment, N. Y. State factories........ 111 Business failures....................................... 139 Building permits....................................... 111 93 93 109 117 116 97 95 98r 96 111 114 112 97 95 93 94 114 112 ioo 91 106 113 99 110 111 98 103 101 101 115 99 104 99 108 160 118 103 106 99 122 192 124 103 119 105 100 119 177 V—Preliminary r = Revised Building The continuance of building operations at high levels was indicated by the figures on June contract awards which fo r 36 states totaled $541,000,000, an increase of 40 per cent over a year previous and larger than in any previous month except A p ril of this year. B uilding permits issued in 370 cities were 33 per cent larger than a year ago, reflecting increases in a m ajority o f the lead ing cities. F or the first six months o f 1925, contracts and permits gained 15 per cent and 5 per cent, respect ively, over the first half o f 1924, and were larger than in any corresponding period. In the New Y ork State and Northern New Jersey dis trict, contracts awarded in June were one-third larger than a year previous, but the total fo r the first six months o f the year was 17 per cent below the correspond ing period last year. Residential building contracts in June again exceeded those o f a year ago after falling heavily below in the first fou r months o f the year. Com mercial building continued substantially larger than in 1924, but industrial and educational projects were rela tively small. C hanges in A v e ra g e W e e k ly E a rn in gs o f F a cto ry O peratives in N ew Y o rk S tate and W a g e s o f U n sk illed L abor. L a te st figures, June. ( 1 9 1 4 = IOO P e r cen t.) Most employers continue to report a surplus o f un skilled labor, though less apparently than early in the year, and in a few cases there has been difficulty in securing high class labor fo r industrial plants or less skilled labor fo r railway track work. Labor turnover has increased somewhat, largely due to the summer season, but is still low com pared with periods o f active demand fo r labor. June reports on factory employment in New Y ork State showed a further decline o f about 1 per cent, or considerably less than occurred last year at this time. Most o f the decrease was due to seasonal reductions in the automobile and w om en’s clothing industries, declines in cotton and woolen mills, and moderate curtailment in iron and steel, furniture and carpet plants. In the building materials, food products, leather, and m en ’s clothing industries, employment increased. 7 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT A T NEW YO R K Commodity Prices Crops The rise in basic com modity prices, which started in May, continued with only minor interruptions through the greater part o f July. On July 25 this ban k ’s weekly index reached the highest point in fou r months and was close to the highest level in two years. Firm er grain markets during most of the month were reflected by a rise in July wheat from $1.41 at Chicago early in the month to $1.61, from which there was later a reaction to $1.56. Livestock markets were also stronger, and steers and hogs reached the highest prices in recent years. Hides advanced to the highest level since December. Further advance in rubber prices carried quotations to $1.21 a pound, from which prices later reacted to $0.96. O f the textile raw materials, cotton held gener ally around 2 4% cents most o f the month, but rose nearly to 26 cents follow ing official reports showing deterioration of the crop. W ool held steady, after the partial recovery in June, and silk reacted slightly. P ig iron and steel prices declined to the lowest levels in approximately three years, but late in the month scrap steel became firmer, and copper advanced % cent to 14% cents, follow ing reports o f further curtailment o f output. Lumber and petroleum prices were likewise firmer. Sugar, on the other hand, continued weak and reached new low levels fo r the last three years. The follow ing diagram compares this ban k’s weekly index o f 20 basic commodities in this country with a similai index fo r Great Britain. In its July report the Department o f A griculture forecast the yield o f corn at more than 3,000,000.000 bushels, or 27 per cent more than last y e a r’s small crop, and 5 per cent above the five year average. The fore cast of wheat was slightly higher than in June, but nearly 200,000,000 bushels below the harvest last year. In the world market, however, smaller Am erican sup plies apparently will be offset by a substantially larger Canadian crop and larger yields throughout Eurojpe and North A frica. From an unusually large estimate o f 14,339,000 bales on June 25, the D epartm ent’s estimates of the cotton crop were reduced 751,000 bales on July 16 to 13,588,000 bales, slightly lower than last y e a r’s crop, but consid erably above the five year average. The follow ing table compares prospective yields of leading crops with the harvests of form er years. In the case o f potatoes the yield promises to be the smallest since 1919. PERCENT. (In millions) Crop Unit 1920-1924 Average Harvest 1924 Harvest 1925 July Forecast Winter wheat................................ Spring wheat................................. Bushel Bushel Bushel Bushel Bushel Bushel Bushel Ton Bushel Pound Bale 592 245 837 2,935 1,328 182 70 107 418 1,331 11.0 590 283 873 2,437 1,542 188 63 112 455 1,241 13.6 404 276 680 3,095 1,292 208 54 93 350 1,283 13.6 Barley............................................ Hay................................................ Potatoes......................................... Tobacco......................................... Cotton............................................ Crop conditions in New Y ork State were somewhat more favorable than fo r the country as a whole. W hile some sections suffered from drought in June, the con dition of fru it was generally reported good. W hile the hay crop promises to be smaller than last year, indicated yields o f wheat, oats, rye, and potatoes compare more favorably with a year ago in this state than in the United States. Wholesale Trade 1 9 2 .4 1925 Price Indexes of 20 Basic Commodities in the United States and in England. 1913 = 100 Per cent. (Latest figures, July 25 .) This ban k ’s index of the general price level, which includes rents and wages, as well as retail and whole sale prices, was unchanged from M ay to June at 184 per cent o f the 1913 level, compared with 180 per cent in June 1924. D uring July noteworthy changes in prices of manu factured goods included further advances in rubber tire prices to levels nearly 40 per cent above the early spring quotations, the pricing of spring 1926 worsteds at 2 to 10 per cent reductions from last spring, and the announcement by a number of automobile companies of price cuts follow ing the passing o f the spring peak o f production. Aggregate sales in June o f 200 representative whole sale dealers in this district continued at about the May level, but were 16 per cent larger than in June 1924, when sales were the smallest in the past three years. More active demand fo r industrial equipment was re flected in an increase in sales o f machine tools to nearly double those o f a year ago, and the largest since the spring o f 1923. Silk goods sales, while smaller than in the spring, continued unusually heavy fo r the season, and there were substantial gains over last year in w om en’s dresses, m en ’s clothing, diamonds, hardware, stationery, and cotton goods. Sales o f w om en’s coats and suits, on the other hand, were the smallest in several years, due partly to the preference shown fo r dresses. Silk goods stocks increased in June, accom panying the summer slackening in sales, but were smaller than a year ago. W holesalers’ stocks of cotton goods and hardware continued substantially smaller than a year ago, while M O N TH LY REVIEW , AUGUST 1, 1925 stocks of groceries, shoes, and jew elry and diamonds remained larger. Percentage Change June 1925 from June 1924 Commodity Sales Groceries......................... Men’s clothing............... Women’s dresses............ Women’s coats and suits Cotton-Jobbers.............. Cotton-Com’sion houses. Silk goods....................... Shoes............................... Drugs.............................. Hardware....................... Machine tools................ Stationery...................... Paper.............................. Diamonds....................... Jewelry........................... Weighted Average---- + 4.9 +18.6 +46.0 — 32.8 + 10.3 +12.1 +50.4 + 6.3 — 5.3 +11.5 +87.1 +10.1 + 4.7 +11.9 — 17.9 Stock on Hand at end of month + 6.8 — ie.7 — 6.6* +20.6 — 15.5 £ + H .1 First Six Months 1925 from 1924 Sales Stock on Hand — 3.7 + 7.9 + 3.9 — 8.4 — 5.6 +19.3 +25.9 — 2.9 — 4.2 — 2.3 + 6.6 — 1.3 — 2.6 + 8.1 — 10.8 +12.4 day basis the increase in sales was less than 1 per cent. In the case o f apparel stores, actual sales increased 8 per cent, and the daily rate o f sales about 4 per cent. F or the first half o f the year the increase in sales, amounting to 3 per cent, was also slightly below the usual year to year increase. As stocks of merchandise showed approximately the same increase, the rate o f turnover was virtually unchanged from last year. This rate varied widely from New Y ork City, where sales were nearly double the average stocks, to the smaller cities, where sales averaged 112 per cent o f the average stocks. — 17.1 — ii.2 * — 0.9 Percentage Change — 17.7 Stock Net Sales on Hand First Stock First Net Sales on Hand Six Months Six Months June 1925 June 30, ’25 1925 1925 from from from from June 1924 June 30, ’24 1924 1924 | +16.1 + 0.4 +16.0 Chain Store Sales A ggregate June sales of reporting chain store systems were 22 per cent larger than in June last year, an unusually large increase, and sales per store likewise com pared more favorably with last year than at any time in recent months. A s has been the case fo r some time past the largest expansion of business occurred in grocery and variety chains, although drug chains re ported the largest increase in sales per store. F or the first six months o f the year the increase in sales of all stores amounted to 17 per cent. Grocery, variety, and ten cent chains showed the largest increases, although gains occurred in other lines except tobacco stores, fo r which sales were approxim ately the same as last year. The follow ing table gives detailed comparisons fo r June and fo r the first six months of the year. + + + + + + + 4.8 4.8 8.1 3.8 4.3 6.9 4.6 + + + + + + + — — — + + — 3.2 2.5 6.4 0.5 4.8 0.9 1.9 5.4 4.7 0.3 3.4 6.5 0.7 Elsewhere, Second Dist................ Northern New York State....... Central New York State.......... Southern New York State........ Hudson River Valley Dist....... Capita] District......................... Westchester District................. + 3.0 + 5.9 + 7.6 + 8.0 + 6.1 + 9.1 + 5.5 — 0.6 — 4.6 + 1-4 +10.1 + 7.5 + 5.9 All department stores................... + 4.2 + 4.9 + 3.2 + 3.4 Apparel stores............................... Mail order houses......................... + 8.4 +14.1 — 2.4 + 8.0 + 9.4 + 1.9 *Stock at first of month— quantity not value. + — + + + + — 3.7 0.1 6.8 3.2 6.7 5.5 2.9 Comparison o f sales by departments, both fo r June and the six months revealed particularly large increases over last year in silks, luggage and leather goods, and shoes. In June m en ’s clothing and furnishings also made a good showing, while fo r the six months the largest increase occurred in radio business, due to heavy clearance sales. D uring June the average value o f the individual sales check was $2.84, com pared with $2.80 in June last year. Percentage Change Percentage Change Type of Store Total Sales First June 1925 from June 1924 Six Months 1925 from Total Number of Sales per 1924 Sales Store Stores Grocery.......................................... Variety........................................... Ten cent......................................... Drug............................................... Candy............................................ Shoe................................................ Tobacco......................................... +18.8 +17.5 + 6.5 + 3.7 + 3.0 +19.8 + 7.0 +28.6 +26.1 +15.3 +14.7 +10.0 + 8.1 + 2.3 + 8.3 + 7.3 + 8.3 +10.6 + 6.9 — 9.8 — 4.4 +23.3 +20.6 +11.9 + 7.2 + 3.0 + 4.1 0 Total........................................... +16.2 +21.8 + 4.9 +17.3 Stock Stock on on Hand Net Sales Hand at end First First Net Sales of month Six Months Six Months June 1925 June 1925 1925 1925 from from from from 1924 1924 June 1924 June 1924 Luggage and other leather Men’s furnishings......................... Men’s and Boys’ wear.................. Toilet articles and drugs.............. Linens and handkerchiefs............ Home furnishings......................... Department Store Sales Sales o f leading department stores in this district averaged 4 per cent larger in June than a year previous, due partly, however, to the fact that June this year contained an extra working day. A dju sted to a work Women’s and Misses’ ready-toWomen’s accessories..................... Silverware and jewelry................. Cotton goods................................. Woolen goods................................ Musical inst’s and radio............... Miscellaneous................................. +26.8 +20.0 +11.9 — 2.4 + 19 .3 + 19 .0 + 12 .5 + 12.5 + 12.3 + 11.5 + 9.9 + 9.2 + 7.3 + 11.4 +25.4 + 6.3 +12.4 + 4.8 + 5.6 +11.3 — 3.9 + 1.1 +10.3 + 6.6 + 6.4 + 5.7 + 5.9 + 9.2 + 7.4 + 5.6 + 9.7 + 7.0 +16.9 + 6.3 + 11 .5 + 2.7 + 4.1 — 0.7 — 1.2 + 0.7 + 5.8 + 5.6 + 1.2 — 0.3 — 24.7 — 25.9 + 2.6 + 5.9 0 — 2.9 + 2.2 + 3.6 + 14.7 + 2.2 + 8.4 + 1.7 + 1.2 + 5.3 — 5.9 + 80 .8 — 1.2 + — — + — — + 2.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 4.1 0.5 1.0
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