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MONTHLY REVIEW of Credit and Business Conditions FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1949 Guide to Page Numbers Month of Issue Pages January............. 1 — 12 February........... 13 — 24 M arch ............... 25 — 36 Month of Issue Pages April ............. . 37 — 48 May ............... 49 — 60 61 — 72 J u n e ............... Month of Issue Pages July ............... 73 — 84 A u g u s t........... 85 — 96 September . . . 97 — 108 Month of Issue Pages October . . . . 109 — 120 November . . . 121 — 132 December . . . 133 — 144 Page Agriculture Decline in commodity prices, The Agriculture in 1949 Canada’s Improved Exchange Position 55 106 Charts Weekly indexes of wholesale prices of farm products and of all commodities other than farm products and foods, 1948 6 Percentage distribution of cash income from farm market ings, New York State and the United States, 1948 106 Apparel Stores Percentage change in apparel store sales and stocks 1 0 , 24, 34, 46, 60, 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 Chart Estimated value of average sales check of New York City department and apparel stores, July 1947-May 1949 See, also, Department Stores, Retail Credit Survey Bank Credit Member bank credit See, also, Loans, Money Market 82 2 , 2 6 , 50, 1 1 0 , 1 2 2 , 135 Bank Earnings Member bank earnings in 1948 Earnings and expenses of Second District member banks Capital See Corporate Financing, New Issues Commercial Banks Charts Estimated ownership of business and personal demand de posits at all commercial banks in the Second Federal Reserve District Market purchases ( + ) and sales ( — ) of Government securities by the commercial banks, December 1945March 1949 See, also, Member Banks Commodities Decline in commodity prices, The Construction Activity in 1949 42 51 55 112 Chart Estimated new construction activity, United States and New York State, first six months, 1947-49 114 43 102 Chart Net profits of various deposit size groups of Second District member banks by semiannual periods 103 Banking Developments in the Second District Page 40 39, 79,111 Consumer Credit Department store credit 44 Retail credit survey for 1948 44, 57 Termination of consumer credit regulation and reduction of reserve requirements, June 30, 1949 74 Consumer credit since Regulation W 136 Chart Bonds Government bond market Bond market 61,133 77 Charts Bond holdings of the Federal Reserve System by maturity, October 1947-January 1949 14 Market purchases ( + ) and sales ( — ) of Government securities by the commercial banks, December 1945March 1949 51 Prices of selected Treasury bonds 62,133 Yields on long-term bonds and stocks, January 1941May 1949 77 See, also, Money Market Budget Message, The President’s January 10, 1949 Business Indexes 17 1 0 , 24, 34, 46, 60, 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 Changes in estimated amounts of consumer instalment credit extended by selected sources 136 Corporate Financing Corporate working capital New issues 3 78 Charts Total current assets of U. S. corporations, December 31, 1945 and June 30, 1948 Corporate security flotations for new capital by industries, semiannual totals, 1946-first half of 1949 4 78 Credit Member bank credit 2, 26, 50, 110, 122, 135 Latin American export credit information 20 Member bank credit and the reduction of legal reserve ratios 110 See, also, Consumer Credit, Loans, Money Market INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1949 ( Continued) Page Currency Demand for cash during holiday periods 137 Chart Currency in circulation, December 31, 1947-December 29, 138 1948 Currency Devaluation Dollar problem of the sterling area, The 114 Total retail store sales— durable and nondurable goods, third quarter 1947, 1948, and 1949 141 Earnings Member bank earnings in 1948 Earnings and expenses of Second District member banks 43 102 Chart Economic Reconstruction of Japan, The 55 Chart Weekly indexes of wholesale prices, 1947-49 Chart Net profits of various deposit size groups of Second District member banks by semiannual periods 103 Debt of the United States See Money Market, President’s Budget Message, Public Debt, Securities and Security Markets, Treasury Operations Decline in Commodity Prices, The Page 141 Durable Goods Sales and Retail Trade 56 Department Stores Trade in Second Federal Reserve District, monthly review of 8 , 23, 33, 44, 59, 6 8 , 81, 93, 107, 117, 131, 142 The pattern of the November sales decline 8 Department store credit 44 Departmental distribution of 1948 sales 45 Sales trends in major departments 68,131 Recent inventory policy 117, 131 Postwar readjustment in sales, The 143 Charts Recent changes in department store sales, Second Federal Reserve District 9 Outstanding orders and sales of a representative group of Second District department stores, 1940-1948 23 Indexes of department store sales and stocks, Second Federal Reserve District 34, 60,108 Indexes of department store sales by type of transaction, Second Federal Reserve District, 1941 and 1947-49 45 Department store sales, Second Federal Reserve District, first fiscal quarter of selected years 69 Estimated value of average sales check of New York City department and apparel stores, July 1947-May 1949 82 Outstanding orders and sales of Second District department stores, monthly, 1940-June 1949 93 Estimated receipts of incoming merchandise and sales of Second District department stores 117 Department store sales by type of merchandise, Second Federal Reserve District 131 Indexes of department store sales and prices, Second Federal Reserve District 143 139 Electric Power Index of electric power output 10 , 24, 34, 46, 60, 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 1 3 2 , 144 Employment Indexes of factorv employment, United States and New York State ' 10, 24, 34, 46, 60, 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 Employment, unemployment, and the labor force 63 Charts Employment and unemployment in the United States 65 Nonagricultural employment in the Second District and in the United States, 1947 to September 1949 125 European Recovery Program The first year Progress of economic recovery in Italy Discussion of 52 91 55, 104 Export Credit Latin American export credit information Export collections on Latin American countries Deposits Index of velocity of demand deposits 10, 24, 34, 46, 6 0 , 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 Postwar changes in the velocity of deposits 27 Survey of ownership of business and personal demand deposits 41 Charts Annual rate of turnover of demand deposits of weekly re porting member banks in New York City and outside New York City, 1946-January 1949 Estimated ownership of business and personal demand de posits at all commercial banks in the Second Federal Reserve District Dollar Problem of the Sterling Area, The 21 Factory Employment See Employment Factory Payrolls See Payrolls Farm Prices Chart Weekly indexes of wholesale prices of farm products and of all commodities other than farm products and foods, 1948 See, also, Agriculture Federal Open Market Committee Statement of the— June 28, 1949 Federal Reserve Float Demand for Cash during Holiday Periods 137 Chart Currency in circulation, December 31, 1947-December 29, 1948 138 20 Chart 6 73 100 Chart Federal Reserve float, August 1939-July 1949 Foreign Trade Present status of the I.T.O. proposals United States foreign trade since the war 101 66 126 Charts United States exports and imports as a percentage of gross national product 127 United States exports and imports by major areas 129 See, also, Latin American Export Credit Information 28 Freight Index of ton-miles of railway freight 1 0 , 24, 34, 46, 6 0 , 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 42 Furniture Store Trade See Retail Credit Survey 114 Gold Inflows and Their Effect on Member Bank Reserves 15 INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1949 ( Continued) Page Government Security Market See Bonds, Money Market, Securities and Security Markets Income Index of personal income 1 0 , 24, 34, 46, 6 0 , 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 Industrial Production See Production International Trade Organization Present status of the I.T.O. proposals 66 Intra-European Payments Plan, The New 104 Investments See Money Market, Securities and Security Markets Italy Progress of economic recovery in 91 Latin American Export Credit Information 78 Corporate security flotations for new capital by industries, semiannual totals, 1946-first half of 1949 20 New York City See Apparel Stores, Department Stores, Earnings, Member Banks, Velocity of Deposits Chart Export collections on Latin American countries 21 2, 27, 50, 122, 135 39, 79, 111 111 Chart Cumulated net changes in commercial, industrial, and agri cultural loans, weekly reporting member banks, 1947 and 1948 See, also, Credit 3 Member Banks Credit 2, 26, 50, 110, 122, 135 Reserve position 2, 14, 62, 75, 8 6 , 98 Gold inflows and their effect on member bank reserves 15 Banking developments in the Second District 39, 79, 111 Earnings in 1948 43 War loan accounts 89 Earnings and expenses of Second District member banks 102 Member bank credit and the reduction of legal reserve ratios 110 Changes in reserve requirements for member banks 123 Charts Cumulated net changes in commercial, industrial, and agricul tural loans, weekly reporting member banks, 1947 and 1948 3 Annual rate of turnover of demand deposits of weekly re porting member banks in New York City and outside New York City, 1946-January 1949 28 Net changes in reserve balances of all member banks, December 1948-June 1949 74 Net profits of various deposit size groups of Second District member banks by semiannual periods 103 Cumulated net changes in holdings of Government securities by type of investor, April 27 to September 2 1 , 1949 111 See, also, Money Market 1, 13, 25, 37, 49, 61, 73, 85, 97, 109, 121, 133 Charts Cumulated net changes in commercial, industrial, and agri cultural loans, weekly reporting member banks, 1947 and 1948 New Issues 139 Labor Force See Employment Money Market Monthly review of 86 Chart Japan Economic reconstruction of, The Loans Discussion of Banking developments in the Second District Expansion of commercial loans Page Bond holdings of the Federal Reserve System by maturity, 14 October 1947-January 1949 26 Ownership of Treasury bills 38 Impact of Treasury operations on the money market Market purchases (-J-) and sales ( — ) of Government securities by the commercial banks, December 194551 March 1949 Prices of selected Treasury bonds 6 2 ,133 Net changes in reserve balances of all member banks, 74 December 1948-June 1949 Yields on U. S. Government securities, January 1946-July 1949 Marketable debt of the U. S. Treasury 99 Cumulated net changes in holdings of Government securi 111 ties by type of investor, April 27 to September 21, 1949 122 Treasury cash expenditures and General Fund balance 3 78 New York State See Agriculture, Construction Activity in 1949, Employment, Payrolls Organization for European Economic Cooperation Interim report of Discussion of New intra-European payments plan, The 29 55 104 Payrolls Index of factory payrolls, United States and New York State 10 , 24, 34, 46, 6 0 , 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 1 3 2 , 144 Personal Income Index of 10, 24, 34, 46, 60, 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 Population in the Second Federal Reserve District, 1940-48 31 Chart Total population of the United States and Second District, July 1, 1910-48 Postwar Changes in the Velocity of Deposits 32 27 Chart Annual rate of turnover of demand deposits of weekly report ing member banks in New York City and outside New York City, 1946-January 1949 28 Present Status of the I.T.O. Proposals 66 President’s Budget Message, The 17 Prices Price trends during 1948 6 Index of consumers’ prices 1 0 , 24, 34, 46, 60, 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 Decline in commodity prices, The 55 Charts Weekly indexes of wholesale prices of farm products and of all commodities other than farm products and foods, 1948 Weekly indexes of wholesale prices, 1947-49 6 56 Production Index of industrial production 1 0 , 24, 34, 46, 60, 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 Public Debt, The See, also, Money Market, Securities and Security Markets 19 INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1949 ( Continued) Page Railway Freight See Freight Regulation W Termination of consumer credit regulation and reduction of reserve requirements, June 30, 1949 74 Consumer credit since Regulation W 136 Sterling Area Dollar problem of the sterling area, The Survey of Ownership of Business and Personal Demand Deposits Reserve Bank Credit See Bank Credit, Money Market 114 41 Chart Reserves Monthly review of 1, 13, 25, 37, 49, 61, 73, 85, 97, 109, 121, 133 Gold inflows and their effect on member bank reserves 15 Reduction in reserve requirements 52,99 Termination of consumer credit regulation and reduction of reserve requirements, June 30, 1949 74 Member bank credit and the reduction of legal reserve ratios 110 Changes in reserve requirements for member banks 123 Retail Credit Survey for 1948 Page Yields on U. S. Government securities, January 1946-July 1949 86 Cumulated net changes in holdings of Government securities by type of investor, April 27 to September 21, 1949 111 44,57 Chart Cash and credit sales at credit-granting retail stores in the Second Federal Reserve District 58 Estimated ownership of business and personal demand de posits at all commercial banks in the Second Federal Reserve District Termination of Consumer Credit Regulation and Reduction of Reserve Requirements, June 30, 1949 42 74 Trade Present status of the I.T.O. proposals United States foreign trade since the war 126 Treasury Cash Position 122 66 Treasury Bills See Money Market Treasury Bonds See Money Market, Securities and Security Markets 24, 34, 46, 6 0 . 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 1 3 2 , 144 Treasury Operations 38 141 Treasury financing in the fiscal year 1949 87 Chart Treasury financing 99 Total retail store sales— durable and nondurable goods, third Charts quarter 1947, 1948, and 1949 141 Impact of Treasury operations on the money market 38 See, also, Department Stores Marketable debt of the U. S. Treasury 99 Salaries Treasury cash expenditures and General Fund balance 122 See Wages See, also, Bonds, Money Market, President’s Budget Message, Public Debt, Securities and Security Markets Second Federal Reserve District Population in the Second Federal Reserve District, 1940-48 31 Trend of Business, The 124 Banking developments in the 39, 79, 111 Chart Survey of ownership of business and personal demand deposits 41 Nonagricultural employment in the Second District and in the United States, 1947 to September 1949 125 Member bank earnings in 1948 43 Retail credit survey for 1948 44, 57 Unemployment Earnings and expenses of Second District member banks 102 See Employment See, also, Credit, Department Stores, Deposits, Earnings, Em United Kingdom ployment, Loans, Member Banks, Money Market Dollar problem of the sterling area, The 114 Securities and Security Markets United States Foreign Trade since the War 126 Corporate working capital Changes in the geographic pattern of trade 127 Government security market 51, 61, 85, 97, 133 Changes in commodity composition 129 61, 76 Security markets, The Charts 76 Stock market United States exports and imports as a percentage of gross 77 Bond market national product 127 78 New issues United States exports and imports by major areas 129 Retail Trade Indexes of sales of all retail stores 10 , Durable goods sales and retail trade Charts Total current assets of U. S. corporations, December 31, 1945 and June 30, 1948 4 Bond holdings of the Federal Reserve System by maturity, October 1947-January 1949 14 Ownership of Treasury bills 26 Market purchases ( + ) and sales ( — ) of Government securities by the commercial banks, December 1945March 1949 51 Prices of selected Treasury bonds 6 2 ,133 Yields on long-term bonds and stocks, January 1941-May 1949 77 Corporate security flotations for new capital by industries, semiannual totals, 1946-first half of 1949 78 Velocity of Deposits Indexes of demand deposits, New York City and outside New York City 10, 24, 34, 46, 60, 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 Postwar changes in the velocity of deposits 27 Chart Annual rate of turnover of demand deposits of weekly report ing member banks in New York City and outside New York City, 1946-January 1949 28 Wages Composite index of wages and salaries 1 0 , 24, 34, 46, 6 0 , 70, 82, 94, 108, 118, 132, 144 War Loan Accounts 89
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